Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/13/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
559 PM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AROUND CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA RANGING FROM UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S AND SKIES ARE SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN FACT...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN
CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE
CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO. A
SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEVADA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE INITIAL TROUGH...AS CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ECHOS
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY INTO NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AS
WELL AS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF HINT AT AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY...AND GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEEING SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE WITH THE DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SLOW TO CLIMB
BUT HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL ARIZONA NICELY
EVEN AFTER BEING COMPLETELY OVERCAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY AND PEAKING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SONORA BY LATE
TONIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AGAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY.
SATURDAY A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXPANDS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON STATE LATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR LOW THAT MIGRATED TO
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE BAJA TIP THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE NICELY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WIND PATTERN SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO
A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE. AS SUCH...INCREASING PWAT VALUES HOVERING AROUND 0.75
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY AND FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS /700MB - 300MB/ MAY
GENERATE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LATEST RUN OF ECMWF HAS HIGHER MOISTURE PAINTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS QUICKLY BRINGS IN PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF WHEN THE ECMWF DOES. STILL A TOSS UP THIS FAR
OUT...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HAVE SEEN A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS A RESULT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING WHEN WINDS WILL TURN BACK AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH ANY
OCCASIONAL STRONGER NORTH GUST ABATING WITH SUNSET. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE A LOT MORE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS
ONE WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN FACT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TRENDING UPWARD WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/DEWEY
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION AND EXIT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE CROSSING THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING THERE IS STILL SOME MOSTLY LIGHT FOG AROUND
THE AREA BUT IT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING DOWN THE FOG CLEARING PROCESS. THE FORECAST
MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS.
THE RADAR SHOWS ONLY LIGHT ECHOES OVER DELMARVA AND FAR SRN NJ
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER ECHOES UPSTREAM OVER VA AND MD. THE
RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OR TWO OF SHOWERS
UNTIL ABOUT 3 PM FOR SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD SO WE ARE KEEPING
SLIGHT CHC POPS THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRETHS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING NORTH TOWARD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
DECENTLY MILD DAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN NW WITH SOME GUSTS TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A GUSTY NW WIND DEVELOPING TO 20 MPH, EXCEPT
25 - 30 MPH IN THE HILLS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES.
OTHERWISE A NICE LATE WINTER NIGHT.
FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/11 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A NICE AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURE WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.
FRIDAY...HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH A DRY DAY EARLY ACROSS THE AREA.
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. RAIN WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PLAIN RAIN BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.
SATURDAY...THE LOW IS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT HAS TAPPED INTO THE GULF MOISTURE AND DRAWS IT NORTHWARD AND INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PWATS INCREASING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ROUND AN
INCH EXPECTED, THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND. DEFINITELY A
SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SUNDAY...THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY AND WE WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
REGION SUNDAY AND DROPS A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS US, WITH BETTER
CHANCES OFF THE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OVERALL, SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHERWISE WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, POSSIBLY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S, COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.
WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
RESPOND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXCEPT CURRENT
MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG AT RDG/ABE...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY NOON. LIGHT WEST WIND TURNING NW AND GUSTING 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR OR A FEW CIRRUS. NW WIND SHOULD GUST 18-22Z
KT, AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AND THEN DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF KPHL.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DROPPING TO LIFR AT TIMES IN
RAIN AND FOG. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...MVFR EARLY, THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15KT, ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC DELAWARE
WITH WIND BECOMING NW EVERYWHERE AND GUSTING 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG THIN OUT THIS MORNING AS SCT SHOWERS GRADUALLY END.
EXCEPTION...BANDS OF SHOWERS PROBABLY AFFECTING ANZ455 DE ATLC
WATERS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TONIGHT...NW WIND GUSTING 20 KT EXCEPT PROBABLY 25-30 KT OVER THE
NNJ WATERS WHERE AN SCA APPEARS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY GUST
NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT, .5 TO .9 INCH RAINFALL, AND A
FROZEN OR NEAR FROZEN GROUND, POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING
OCCURRED EARLY TODAY IN PTNS OF SE PA, MAINLY CHESTER COUNTY.
THOSE WATERS ARE NOW RECEDING AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
WE DID HAVE A PROBLEM WITH OUR AREAL FLOOD WARNING OVERNIGHT AND
THATS THE REASONING FOR THE ISSUANCES UNDER SPS.
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS(RVS), TO RAISE AWARENESS, WILL BE UPDATED
SHORTLY FOR THE MILLSTONE AND RANCOCAS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
407 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
EOX and EVX radar show numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms,
developing in the western Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama.
18Z objective RAP analysis shows about 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE in
these areas, so thunderstorms will continue to be possible and a few
could produce some gusty winds. K1J0 near Bonifay reported a 34 knot
wind gust with a thunderstorm. Showers and thunderstorms should be
most numerous through 00Z in the western parts of the area, before
models are in agreement with showing a diminishing trend in the
evening. We expect overnight rain to be mostly north and west of the
area. Areas of fog may develop in the late evening or overnight. Low
temperatures will continue to be well above normal.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Starting Thursday, the mean longwave pattern will feature a large
trough covering the CONUS from the west coast to just east of the
Mississippi River. Making up the trough are essentially two +PV
anomalies, one from the northern Rockies through the Great Basin
and on through the central and southern Plains. The leading
anomaly will gradually weaken through Friday night as it moves
north into the Midwest. At the surface, the low pressure system in
the western Gulf will mimic the progression of the upper level
anomaly, gradually weakening and moving north through the
Mississippi Valley. In the immediate Tri-State region, we`ll
remain under the influence of deep layer ridging on the western
periphery of the upper ridge, and the southern side of the surface
ridge.
Synoptics aside, summertime PWAT`s and southeasterly flow will
favor a regime 6 seabreeze setup tomorrow afternoon. In addition
to the early season seabreeze development, a wedge front will be
moving southwest into the Tri-State region on the leading edge of
the aforementioned southward building surface ridge. Thus, expect
a healthy coverage of thunderstorms area-wide tomorrow. In fact,
plenty of instability will join marginal deep layer shear (~25-30kts),
and marginal delta Theta-e values (20-25K) to warrant a threat for
a couple strong to even marginally severe thunderstorms. Damaging
wind gusts would be the primary threat.
Drier air on Friday will lower PWATs and lessen instability,
yielding a lower chance for thunderstorms. Though scattered
showers should still be expected region-wide along the remnant
wedge front and inevitable seabreeze front.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The aforementioned surface low will be moving into the Northeast
on Saturday, with a cold front draped southwest from the Mid-
Atlantic into the Southern Plains. +PVA in the deep southwesterly
flow regime will continue the threat for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday, a
stronger +PV anomaly moving through the Great Lakes region will be
enough to force the front through the local area, drying things
out by Sunday night. A transition to deep layer northwesterly flow
on the leading edge of a central CONUS ridge should keep things
dry through mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
MVFR cigs will improve to VFR late this afternoon with scattered
thunderstorms possible near DHN and ABY. Cigs and vsbys will
likely deteriorate to MVFR-IFR again during the overnight periods.
&&
.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue to subside through the period,
remaining below headline levels into next week.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Moisture levels will remain elevated for the next several days
precluding any chance for red flag conditions. Fog is another good
possibility tonight and Thursday morning, with greatest chances near
the coast. Daytime dispersion indices will be on the low side along
the coast on Thursday.
&&
.Hydrology...
Average rainfall amounts of around an inch, up to two inches in
localized areas across Alabama and Georgia, should be expected
through Sunday. This will likely not have much of an impact on
area rivers.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 62 82 64 79 64 / 10 60 70 30 20
Panama City 63 74 64 71 65 / 20 30 40 40 40
Dothan 63 81 61 73 63 / 40 70 70 50 50
Albany 61 80 59 71 62 / 30 60 60 40 30
Valdosta 62 83 62 80 65 / 20 60 40 40 30
Cross City 64 83 61 83 64 / 10 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 63 71 63 68 63 / 10 20 30 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AS GULF MOISTURE RIDES OVER A DEVELOPING WEDGE. WITH THE
WEDGE STRENGTHENING ON FRIDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE
WILL COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NE...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY. RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TO OUR W/SW WHERE BETTER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RESIDES. UPPER IMPULSE TO MOVE TO THE
NE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST GRADUALLY INCREASING LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY W FA/CSRA...SPREADING E/NE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING. WEDGE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN/DEVELOP AS
LIGHT RAIN COMMENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BLANKET THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN CONTINUING ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TO BE AROUND
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS. ON SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH...HOWEVER
AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL. CONDITIONS
WILL BEING IMPROVING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WED/THU
WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES REMAINS VFR CATEGORY HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE
LOWERED FROM OGB TO AGS/DNL. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPROVING
CEILINGS THIS EVENING BUT TREND LIKELY LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WIDESPREAD IFR
FORECAST BY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS GULF
MOISTURE RIDES OVER A DEVELOPING WEDGE. WITH THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENING ON FRIDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE WILL
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NC WITH CLOUDS
BLANKETING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS GULF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHWARD. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD WHILE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER
INTO THE AREA. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY IN THE
CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN CSRA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BLANKET THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN CONTINUING ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TO BE AROUND
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS. ON SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH...HOWEVER
AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL. CONDITIONS
WILL BEING IMPROVING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WED/THU
WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES REMAINS VFR CATEGORY HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE
LOWERED FROM OGB TO AGS/DNL. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPROVING
CEILINGS THIS EVENING BUT TREND LIKELY LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WIDESPREAD IFR
FORECAST BY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
501 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT TOMORROW.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT TOMORROW.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a trough of low pressure dropping
southward toward the I-70 corridor. Despite winds turning to the
north behind the boundary, the cooler airmass lags well behind
across the northern part of the state. Current temperatures are
mainly in the 60s, but remain in the middle 50s across the far north
around Galesburg and Lacon. As the trough sinks further southward,
a light NE wind will bring slightly cooler/drier air into the entire
region this evening. The main short-term concern will be the
potential re-development of fog. HRRR has been consistently showing
widespread fog forming across northern/central Indiana this evening,
then spreading W/SW into central Illinois overnight. Several
mitigating factors are in place that will likely prevent the fog
from becoming as widespread and dense as last night, mainly the
drier low-level airmass courtesy of ample mixing this afternoon and
a light E/NE breeze of 5 to 8mph tonight. Have therefore decided to
only mention patchy fog in the forecast, developing along/east of
I-57 by mid-evening, then spreading westward into the Illinois River
Valley after midnight. Am not expecting the fog to significantly
reduce visibilities over a large scale area, so a Dense Fog Advisory
is not needed at this time. Overnight low temperatures will bottom
out in the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Morning upper air data shows deep upper level positive tilt, cut
off, stagnate trough from mid plains into TX panhandle. Moisture
channel satellite loop displays short wave moving onto the northwest
US coast, which is progged to move east northeast inland through
next day and keep southwest trough cut off. Satellite data does show
the vort max in mexico that will track northeast in tropical flow up
the eastern side of trough into the MS valley, bringing moisture and
pcpn into IL.
Models differ a little on the timing and extent of the pcpn making
its way into IL by Thurs night and Friday. Moisture and pcpn chances
delayed for Thurs, and so dropped pops for Thurs afternoon. All 3 of
operational models (NAm, GFS, EUR) are similar in development of
inverted trough from AR into southern IL by 12z Friday. Overrunning
pcpn moves into southern cwa on thurs night, with the main rain
expected during day Friday. During Friday, upper level wave moves
into AR with the trough stationary into southern IL and continued
overrunning lift reaching into all of forecast area. Surface low
then progged to move northeast up mainly OH River to southeast IN by
12z Saturday. So the main pcpn will be Friday and Friday night, with
rain moving out early Saturday. Heaviest possibe pcpn will be mainly
along and southeast of I-70, with possible QPF 1 to 1.5 inches or
more.
Extended period is main quite, with only one other frontal system
forecast to come through on Monday. That should be dry with frontal
passage and the mild weather should continue through midweek, as the
west to northwest upper level flow continues.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Main aviation forecast challenge will be potential fog development
tonight. High-res models suggest widespread fog will form across
Indiana this evening, then will spread slowly westward into
central Illinois overnight. There are several mitigating factors
that will prevent the fog tonight from becoming as widespread or
dense as it was last night. First of all, ample sunshine this
afternoon will help mix out some of the persistent low-level
moisture. Secondly, the pressure gradient in the wake of a passing
cold front will allow E/NE winds of around 5kt to continue through
the night. With these factors in mind, do not think the fog will
become dense tonight. Based on HRRR timing, have introduced 2-3
mile visbys at the terminals starting at 04z at KCMI, then by 07z
further west at KPIA. Any early morning fog will quickly
dissipate, followed by mostly clear conditions through 18z Thu.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
204 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT TOMORROW.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1256 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 18z/1pm for locations
along and south of I-70, as dense fog remains trapped beneath a
low overcast across that area. Further north and west, the fog has
completely dissipated, so canceled the advisory early. 15z/10am
temperatures have already reached the 50 degree mark where the
sun is shining, well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower
to middle 60s. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Main aviation forecast challenge will be potential fog development
tonight. High-res models suggest widespread fog will form across
Indiana this evening, then will spread slowly westward into
central Illinois overnight. There are several mitigating factors
that will prevent the fog tonight from becoming as widespread or
dense as it was last night. First of all, ample sunshine this
afternoon will help mix out some of the persistent low-level
moisture. Secondly, the pressure gradient in the wake of a passing
cold front will allow E/NE winds of around 5kt to continue through
the night. With these factors in mind, do not think the fog will
become dense tonight. Based on HRRR timing, have introduced 2-3
mile visbys at the terminals starting at 04z at KCMI, then by 07z
further west at KPIA. Any early morning fog will quickly
dissipate, followed by mostly clear conditions through 18z Thu.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW
TO DUE NORTH BEHIND IT. VSBY IS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL...AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...EXPECTING VSBY TO QUICKLY BECOME VFR THIS MORNING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING WITH SPEEDS AT 10-12
KT THROUGH THE MID AFTN. SPEEDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS TRY TO SUGGEST
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND TO MELT...THINKING ONLY PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM. MAINLY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE LAKE CONTINUES WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS THE HIGH THAT PASSES OVER
US TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS
TOMORROW. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WITH FOG DISSIPATING THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A LOW SATURDAY WITH
MAX GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE LOW. HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT FOR NOW BUT
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 18z/1pm for locations
along and south of I-70, as dense fog remains trapped beneath a
low overcast across that area. Further north and west, the fog has
completely dissipated, so canceled the advisory early. 15z/10am
temperatures have already reached the 50 degree mark where the
sun is shining, well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower
to middle 60s. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Areas of dense fog will impact the central Illinois terminals
into the mid-late morning hours. Then, VFR conditions should
prevail into tonight with minimal cloud cover. Fog development
potential for tonight is there once again, but it is not expected
to be as thick or widespread as this morning. Light winds will
trend northeast this afternoon and easterly tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
914 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW
TO DUE NORTH BEHIND IT. VSBY IS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL...AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...EXPECTING VSBY TO QUICKLY BECOME VFR THIS MORNING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING WITH SPEEDS AT 10-12
KT THROUGH THE MID AFTN. SPEEDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS TRY TO SUGGEST
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND TO MELT...THINKING ONLY PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM. MAINLY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE LAKE CONTINUES WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS THE HIGH THAT PASSES OVER
US TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS
TOMORROW. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WITH FOG DISSIPATING THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A LOW SATURDAY WITH
MAX GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE LOW. HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT FOR NOW BUT
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
751 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Areas of dense fog will impact the central Illinois terminals
into the mid-late morning hours. Then, VFR conditions should
prevail into tonight with minimal cloud cover. Fog development
potential for tonight is there once again, but it is not expected
to be as thick or widespread as this morning. Light winds will
trend northeast this afternoon and easterly tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ031-037-
038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUNCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR FOG MAY WORSEN TO LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* LIFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY MAY COME CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
* LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CIGS. ORD AND MDW APPEAR
TO BE THE ONLY TERMINALS WHO ARE AVOIDING THE BRUNT OF THE LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINKING THE BEST WINDOW FOR LOWER CIGS AT ORD AND MDW
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NW WINDS...SO HAVE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING AND WE MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WITH AT LEAST 9 KT LIKELY. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTN AND BECOME EAST AT LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LIFR VSBY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY AND CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN STAYING
BELOW 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE LAKE CONTINUES WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS THE HIGH THAT PASSES OVER
US TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS
TOMORROW. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WITH FOG DISSIPATING THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A LOW SATURDAY WITH
MAX GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE LOW. HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT FOR NOW BUT
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VLIFR visibility in fog is predominant from KTAZ-KCMI-KVYS eastward
this evening, with pockets of MVFR/IFR developing to the west.
Areas of dense fog expected to expand somewhat overnight, while
remainder of the area gradually develops more widespread MVFR/IFR
visibilities. HRRR model has been largely on track with areas of
fog formation this evening, therefore TAFs closely follow HRRR
progs. A frontal boundary will push across the area from the north
from around 12-18Z bringing drier N-NE winds causing fog to
dissipate. VFR conditions and light NE winds expected at all TAF
sites from 15-17Z through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ031-037-
038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...725 PM CDT
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
OBSERVATIONS LENDING PLENTY OF CONFIDENCE TOWARD DENSE FOG FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...INCLUDING EVEN ZERO VISIBILITY
FOR PART IF NOT MUCH OF THE AREA AT TIMES. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON HOW LONG LASTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN AT LEAST NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME SLICK CONDITIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAD SHRUNK TO A SMALL AREA OF
NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS NOW STARTED
RE-EXPANSION AFTER SUNDOWN. AN IDEAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP FOR FOG
WITH SNOW MELT AND SUBLIMATION ADDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ABOVE THE FOG/STRATUS LAYER. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW
RAPID EXPANSION WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY
OBSERVATIONS NOW AS FAR EAST AS AURORA...MORRIS...AND DUPAGE. IN
FACT...AS SOME OF THIS FOG EXPANDS IT MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A
RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY...SIMILAR TO ADVECTION FOG OVER SNOW
MELT...GIVEN THE RAPID LOCAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THIS COULD BE
QUITE SURPRISING TO MOTORISTS AND WILL STRESS IN GRAPHICAL
NOWCASTS.
WITH ROCHELLE AND DEKALB HAVING DROPPED THREE DEGREES THE PAST
HOUR TO 33 DEGREES...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS IF NOT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW SOME FREEZING FOG. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THIS IS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH HAS THE MOST REMAINING SNOW
COVER TO HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER.
THE WIND MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT AT ALL LOOKING AT DEW POINTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MORE LIKELY AND POTENTIALLY MORE OF A FORECAST PROBLEM
IS THAT WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION...BUT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE WITH VISIBILITY OUTPUT DOES INDICATE FOG STILL PRESENT.
IN ADDITION...LAKE FRONT AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO BE REPLENISHED WITH
COOLER MOIST AIR AND KEEP FOG LONGER INTO THE MORNING. HAVE JUST
GONE WITH A 9 AM END TIME TO THE ADVISORY AREAWIDE...BUT DO
MENTION FOG LONGER IN THE FORECAST IN LAKE FRONT AREAS FOR NOW.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
341 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE THE FOG/STRATUS TRENDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SECONDARY CONCERNS ARE MILD
TEMPERATURES...LAKE COOLING...AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEST-EAST
ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS HAS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN TO
THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NORTHERN SECTIONS HAD
SEEN DENSE FOG DEVELOP SINCE LAST EVENING IN WEAK WIND FIELD
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
ACROSS COLD GROUND AND LINGERING SNOWPACK. DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE BEEN ERODING FROM THE EDGES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR RETAINING LOW
VISIBILITIES IN FOG. CONCERN IS THAT AREA OF FOG WILL FILL BACK IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN SATURATED CONDITIONS LOWEST SEVERAL
HUNDRED FEET. IN ADDITION...WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SOME WEAK MOIST ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA UNTIL
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUCH AS THE NARRE...SREF AND HOP-WRF ALL
DEPICT HIGH PROBABILITY OF DETERIORATING VISIBILITY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH ALSO LOOKS TO BE AT SOME RISK FOR DENSE FOG...WITH
HIGHER CLOUDS FROM UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM SOME EARLIER RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED
AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL ISSUE
SPS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. FEEL PART OF AREA WILL LIKELY
END UP IN NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR BEST LOCATION/TIMING DETAILS.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS JAMES BAY ONTARIO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WAS TRAILING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. AREA WILL ONLY BE GRAZED BY COOLER
AIR...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING
LAKE COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING AREAS WITHIN SEVERAL
MILES OF THE LAKE IN THE 40S OR EVEN SOME UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL WEST/SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW-MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST. OF
COURSE THE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS...AND HOW QUICKLY IT ERODES WITH
NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW EFFECTIVE WE WILL BE
AT ACHIEVING THESE MILD TEMPS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
CLEARING LOOKS TO BE A DECENT BET. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE STRONGEST LAKE COOLING TO THE
IMMEDIATE ILLINOIS SHORE AND NORTH SHORE SUBURBS.
UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS TO FAVOR A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS REALLY BEGINS TO PULL GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND WELL TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. BY
THE TIME DEEPER MOISTURE REACHES OUR AREA...LOW LEVEL WINDS AT
925-850 MB ARE ALREADY VEERING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SHUNT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST.
VARIOUS GUIDANCE DOES BRING RAIN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WRF-NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS BRING SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...BUT
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH LOOK OF THE ECMWF/SREF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH HIGHEST (LIKELY) POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES UP TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE (AFTER 3 AM) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. NICE TO HAVE A SYSTEM WHERE ALL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING!
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
341 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH CANADA. THUS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FAIRLY
STOUT SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PUSH OF
WARMER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND CANADA. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MAY PRODUCE THE FIRST 60+ TEMPERATURE FOR THE CWA BY
MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS APPEARS SHORT LIVED...AS STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW PLOWS SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THIS SCENARIO AT THIS DISTANCE.
RATZER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH
PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE
WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER
ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR FOG MAY WORSEN TO LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* LIFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY MAY COME CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
* LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CIGS. ORD AND MDW APPEAR
TO BE THE ONLY TERMINALS WHO ARE AVOIDING THE BRUNT OF THE LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINKING THE BEST WINDOW FOR LOWER CIGS AT ORD AND MDW
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NW WINDS...SO HAVE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING AND WE MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WITH AT LEAST 9 KT LIKELY. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTN AND BECOME EAST AT LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LIFR VSBY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY AND CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN STAYING
BELOW 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER LAKE WATER HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE LAKE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
MAY HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE FOG AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK FLOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
Areas of dense fog have formed this evening from around
Taylorville to Champaign and back northwestward toward La Salle. A
combination of low level moisture left behind from rainfall from
earlier today and from recent snow melt, along with light winds,
and clearing skies have brought several ingredients for fog
development. To the west of this area, little or no rain fell
earlier today, and light southwest winds have developed in
advance of a weak frontal boundary approaching from the north. As
a result, conditions are not as favorable and have seen little fog
development so far. Have issued a dense fog advisory for
approximately the southeast half of the central IL forecast area
for tonight, but will hold off elsewhere at this time. Dry north
to northeast winds once the front crosses into central IL along
with daytime heating mid- morning should dissipate fog early
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
19z/2pm water vapor imagery continues to show a channel of deep
moisture flowing northward from the western Gulf of Mexico into the
Ohio River Valley. This moisture has been interacting with low
pressure over western Kentucky to produce widespread rain from the
Deep South northward into Illinois and Indiana. An upper-level
short-wave currently passing through central Illinois has given the
rain band a solid push eastward, with latest radar mosaic showing
most of the precip now along/east of the Wabash River. This trend
will continue over the next couple of hours, resulting in dry
conditions across the entire KILX CWA by 00z. Think NAM may be a
bit too fast with its eastward progression of clearing across the
area tonight, as satellite imagery still shows a northward push to
the clouds from Louisiana and Arkansas. As a result, will slow the
projected clearing, resulting in cloudy skies along/south of I-70
until dawn Wednesday. With clearing skies, light winds, and plenty
of low-level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, fog will
develop tonight. Locally dense fog will be possible, especially
across locations that picked up rainfall and clear the earliest.
Based on cloud trends, think the area most primed for potentially
dense fog will be between the Illinois River and I-70. Will mention
patchy dense fog in the forecast, but will hold off on a Dense Fog
Advisory until trends become more evident this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
Trof over the central US will weaken tomorrow, allowing brief
ridging to move through the area. This will allow a brief period of
dry weather for tomorrow and tomorrow night. This ridging will slide
east beginning tomorrow and continue to move east through Thursday.
This will enable a weather system developing in the southern parts
of the Miss valley to move north into the central Miss valley and
bring pcpn to the the area. This pcpn should being in southeastern
IL Thursday evening and then spread northward through the night and
then over the whole area on Friday. The models differ on the timing
of the pcpn moving into the area, with the NAM being the quickest.
Have followed the other slower models, thinking the NAM-WRF is too
fast. The slower models also linger the pcpn longer, not ending it
until late Friday night. The ECMWF is the quickest to do this,
followed by the Canadian and then lastly, the GFS. Beyond this
system, high pressure will build into the area for the weekend and
the beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected through this
period. Even a dry front will move through the area Monday night.
Temps should remain warm through the period and be above normal for
early March, into early next week. Behind the dry front Monday
night, temps will cool.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VLIFR visibility in fog is predominant from KTAZ-KCMI-KVYS eastward
this evening, with pockets of MVFR/IFR developing to the west.
Areas of dense fog expected to expand somewhat overnight, while
remainder of the area gradually develops more widespread MVFR/IFR
visibilities. HRRR model has been largely on track with areas of
fog formation this evening, therefore TAFs closely follow HRRR
progs. A frontal boundary will push across the area from the north
from around 12-18Z bringing drier N-NE winds causing fog to
dissipate. VFR conditions and light NE winds expected at all TAF
sites from 15-17Z through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ045-046-
055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ044-052>054-
061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
148 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. FOG WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE REGION
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE FOG BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY AIR IS QUICKLY SINKING SOUTHWARD AND SCOURING OUT THE DENSE
FOG THAT PERSISTED THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...THOUGH VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE STILL AROUND 1/2 SM-2 SM. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE GRADUALLY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY AIR IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KSBN IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND
NOON. OTHERWISE...KFWA IS STILL SEEING LIFR CEILINGS BUT
VISIBILITY IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR IS JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITE AS OF
1730Z. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
AT BOTH SITES. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOISTURE FROM
THE MELTING SNOW DO NOT THINK THIS IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. DO NOT
THINK IT WILL BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS MORNING/LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 4SM AROUND 4-5Z AT BOTH
KSBN/KFWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP A LITTLE
BIT LOWER TOWARDS 1SM-2SM...BUT AT THIS TIME DID NOT WANT TO GET
OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1240 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS DRY AIR IS QUICKLY INFILTRATING THE REGION. EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR IN THE SOUTHEAST AS VISIBILITIES OF
AROUND 1/4 MILE PERIST. DRY AIR IS DISSOLVING THE FOG QUICKLY
HOWEVER...ASSISTED BY THE MARCH SUN MIXING THINGS UP. EXPECT
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXPECTING FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT BOTH
TAF SITES...WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. VISIBILITIES AT UPSTREAM SITES BEHIND THE WAVE WERE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER MOST OBSERVATIONS WERE ABOVE
5SM AS OF 14Z. A FEW LINGERED AROUND 1 1/2 TO 2 SM. FOR NOW...KEPT
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THROUGH 15/16Z...THEN STARTED IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ009-017-
018-023>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1010 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. EXPECT THE PRESENT WIDESPREAD
FOG COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE PATCHY INTO THE LATER MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO HILLSDALE COUNTY AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS PERSISTING. FOG RELATED ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ALREADY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXPECTING FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT BOTH
TAF SITES...WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. VISIBILITIES AT UPSTREAM SITES BEHIND THE WAVE WERE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER MOST OBSERVATIONS WERE ABOVE
5SM AS OF 14Z. A FEW LINGERED AROUND 1 1/2 TO 2 SM. FOR NOW...KEPT
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THROUGH 15/16Z...THEN STARTED IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
926 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. EXPECT THE PRESENT WIDESPREAD
FOG COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE PATCHY INTO THE LATER MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO HILLSDALE COUNTY AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS PERSISTING. FOG RELATED ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ALREADY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
STILL COUNTING ON LIFR CONDS IN DENSE FOG NR TERM TO MIX OUT MID-LT
MORNING AS MID MARCH SUN BEGINS TO WORK ITS MAGIC. HWVR NR TERM
HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST THE OPPOSITE AND HOLDS IT IN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD W/PRIOR FCST AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER...
HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW WILL
COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
STILL COUNTING ON LIFR CONDS IN DENSE FOG NR TERM TO MIX OUT MID-LT
MORNING AS MID MARCH SUN BEGINS TO WORK ITS MAGIC. HWVR NR TERM
HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST THE OPPOSITE AND HOLDS IT IN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD W/PRIOR FCST AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>080.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER...
HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW WILL
COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
LIFR CONDS IN DENSE FOG TO CONT NR TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH MID
MORNING BFR MID MARCH SUN BEGINS TO WORK ITS MAGIC. WILL HWVR NEED
TO REACCESS W/12Z FCST ISSUANCE AS SATURATED MSTR DEPTH PER UPSTREAM
AMDAR SOUNDINGS QUITE SIG SUGGESTING BURNOFF WILL COMMENCE LTR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE WESTERN STATES. CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS HAVE BEEN NEARLY CLOUD FREE TODAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MAINLY STAYED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
CONUS WAVE HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ENCROACHING ON WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING HAVE RESULTED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, THE UPPER LOW WILL
GET SUCKED UP WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH BEFORE ALL
OF IT GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
KANSAS SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROCEED
EASTWARD OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ORIGINATING FROM CANADA SO ONLY A
SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
THE PROLONGED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE STRETCH WE HAVE SEEN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC WEAKNESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS, WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE AREA. A PACIFIC HIGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SLIGHT DROP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE 70S AS AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHEN THIS JET PASSES, THOUGH, WE WILL
SEE A CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE AND MOVE SOUTH BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL REGARDING THE COLD AIRMASS INTRUSION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE
LOWERING TREND, WITH FURTHER LOWERING OF TUESDAY TEMPERATURES LIKELY
IN FUTURE UPDATES. EVEN THE COLDEST ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
DECENT REBOUND BACK TO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO, THE ONLY HOPE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MID NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MAY MIGRATE NORTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA, BUT AT D+7, THIS
IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS GIVEN THAT THE
NAM AND RAP INDICATED WHAT MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PRESENT LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 5000FT AGL LEVEL.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH CROSSING
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SHIFT THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WESTERLY WINDS TO
NORTH/NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRIDAY. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER
WINDS FROM THE 18Z NAM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AT THE LOWEST VALUES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING, WE COULD
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WITH THE
ONGOING GUSTY WINDS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINALLY HIGHER AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT BAY AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 72 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 40 71 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 41 65 38 63 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 39 71 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 41 70 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
P28 42 72 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO GET INTERESTING DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BECOMES
VERY LARGE NOT ONLY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT BUT ALSO
IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AS A RESULT MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THEY
ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST.
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOLER AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN. AS SHOWN YESTERDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS DO DIFFER SOME AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF BROUGHT IN A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. GFS/CANADIAN
SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE WHERE THE 12Z
ECMWF BROUGHT THROUGH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND HAS THE SURFACE
WINDS MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL DOWNSLOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP AND HAS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS. IF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WORK OUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
ON MONDAY IS WHEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD GET RATHER LARGE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOW A
RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
BLAST A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE CANADIAN IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BRINGING A
FRONT THROUGH.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COOLER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FASTER WITH THE
FRONT THAN THE GFS. THERE IS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. KEPT WHAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GAVE ME BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG TEMPERATURE ERROR IS HIGH.
ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SWITCH CAMPS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURES. AGAIN KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME BUT IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A LOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...BUT EXPECTED TO
STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
506 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO GET INTERESTING DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BECOMES
VERY LARGE NOT ONLY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT BUT ALSO
IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AS A RESULT MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THEY
ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST.
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOLER AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN. AS SHOWN YESTERDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS DO DIFFER SOME AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF BROUGHT IN A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. GFS/CANADIAN
SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE WHERE THE 12Z
ECMWF BROUGHT THROUGH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND HAS THE SURFACE
WINDS MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL DOWNSLOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP AND HAS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS. IF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WORK OUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
ON MONDAY IS WHEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD GET RATHER LARGE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOW A
RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
BLAST A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE CANADIAN IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BRINGING A
FRONT THROUGH.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COOLER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FASTER WITH THE
FRONT THAN THE GFS. THERE IS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. KEPT WHAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GAVE ME BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG TEMPERATURE ERROR IS HIGH.
ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SWITCH CAMPS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURES. AGAIN KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME BUT IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A LOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE KS/CO
STATE LINE. GUSTS TO 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
257 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO GET INTERESTING DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BECOMES
VERY LARGE NOT ONLY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT BUT ALSO
IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AS A RESULT MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THEY
ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST.
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOLER AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN. AS SHOWN YESTERDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS DO DIFFER SOME AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF BROUGHT IN A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. GFS/CANADIAN
SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE WHERE THE 12Z
ECMWF BROUGHT THROUGH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND HAS THE SURFACE
WINDS MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL DOWNSLOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP AND HAS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS. IF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WORK OUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
ON MONDAY IS WHEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD GET RATHER LARGE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOW A
RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
BLAST A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE CANADIAN IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BRINGING A
FRONT THROUGH.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COOLER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FASTER WITH THE
FRONT THAN THE GFS. THERE IS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. KEPT WHAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GAVE ME BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG TEMPERATURE ERROR IS HIGH.
ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SWITCH CAMPS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURES. AGAIN KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME BUT IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A LOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
17Z BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 22Z. BOTH TERMINALS LOSE THE GUSTS AFTER 23Z WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS MOSTLY INTACT...EVEN AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA FORMING A CUTOFF LOW SETTLING OVER TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO TO SEE PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT. BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AIDING IN FOCUSING LIMITED QPF POTENTIAL IN FAR WESTERN CWA ZONES.
OVERALL HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60-70F...WHICH WILL BE 5-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY
AND COOLEST ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE WRAPPING IN COOLER
AIR BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER AREA...AND NEXT TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
17Z BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 22Z. BOTH TERMINALS LOSE THE GUSTS AFTER 23Z WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1151 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON POPS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ONLY 20 TO 30 MILES FROM THE LA COAST. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
SHOW THIS CLUSTER MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 80+ PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST LA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WELL REPRESENT THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE. PW OF 1.61 INCHES IS NEAR THE DAILY MAX IN THE
SPC CLIMATOLOGY. THERE IS AN INVERSION AT 910 MB AND THE PROFILE
IS SATURATED FROM 770 TO 600 MB. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
AND PEAK WIND IS 85 KTS AT 240 MB.
KRAUTMANN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
SHORT TERM...
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IS EXTREMELY TRANSITORY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MARINE AREAS. REGARDLESS...THIS CAN CAUSE VIS TO DECREASE
RAPIDLY WITHIN A SHORT DISTANCE. RIVERS LAKES AND SHELF WATERS
WILL HAVE FOG REDUCING VIS TO 1SM OR LESS THIS MORNING. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AS WELL. WILL NEED
TO LOOK AT THINGS FOR A POSSIBLE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS CAUSING RIVERS TO RISE AND PONDING/FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS. A SHORT REPREIVE...SOMEWHAT...TODAY AS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOWERED JUST A BIT AS WE WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP A BETTER CAP ON THINGS TODAY...ALBEIT WEAK.
WILL STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS THOUGH AND THE TRAINING FEATURES ARE
STILL PREVALENT SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ONSLOUGHT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRAIN
OVERHEAD FROM THE DEEP GULF.
LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES NORTH OUT OF
THE GULF THU MORNING ENHANCING THE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS
WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUES WITH RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN. CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BUT WE SHOULD GET A PEAK
OF THE SUN BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND AT TIMES
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT OF RAIN AND/OR FOG. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES. 11
MARINE....
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. IN
GENERAL A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 4 FEET OR LESS DURING
THE PERIOD. 11
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 62 72 63 / 50 60 80 100
BTR 70 63 74 63 / 80 60 80 100
ASD 72 63 72 62 / 80 40 80 100
MSY 73 63 75 63 / 90 50 80 100
GPT 70 63 71 63 / 80 40 80 100
PQL 72 64 74 64 / 70 40 80 100
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
040-046>050-056>072.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
913 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD. PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE...TENDING TO BE THINNER IN THE SOUTH AND
THICKER IN THE NORTH. THE CLOUD COVER AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE...DESPITE QUITE LOW
DEW POINTS. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. FEW
CHANGES NEEDED.
EASTERN UPPER IS...TRICKIER. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE
SHORT-FUSED MODELS THAT STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...AND F-GEN FORCING ABOVE 850MB...WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PRECIP BURST VERY LATE TONIGHT. THE 18Z NAM
PLACES THIS JUST NORTH OF THE SAULTS...WITH MAYBE WHITEFISH PT
GETTING IN ON BETTER PRECIP BUT NO ONE ELSE. THE MOST RECENT RAP13
DUMPS A SOLID 0.10-0.20 OVER WESTERN MACK...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CHIP (INCLUDING THE SAULTS). NAM SOUNDINGS ARE OF COURSE TOO COLD
IN THE BL...BUT THE EVEN THE MILDER RAP SUPPORTS MOSTLY A FREEZING
RAIN EVENT (PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN AND SLEET)...WITH SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR 30-32F.
DON/T THINK THE CURRENT ELEVATED RETURNS E AND NE OF MQT OFFER
MUCH OF A CLUE...THIS IS NOT RELATED TO THE SOURCE REGION OF
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL UPPER/SOUTHERN SUPERIOR AFTER
06Z. AM GOING TO INCREASE POPS AFTER 09Z...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
CHIP...THOUGH AT THIS POINT WILL NOT VENTURE INTO LIKELY POPS
ANYWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND ABUNDANT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED A FAIRLY THINK BAND OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...
BUT WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ON OFF TO THE EAST. BUT THERE IS ANOTHER
BATCH OF SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD ADVANCING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE STATE.
HOWEVER...FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE/BULK OF CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP
SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE U.P. AND AREAS NORTH INTO CANADA.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE BIT OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (-S-IP-ZR). ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MIGHT JUST KEEP ANY PRECIP AT BAY THROUGH MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILDER ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
NORTHERN MICHIGAN - MOST OF YOU ARE GOING TO LOVE US FOR THIS END OF
WEEK FORECAST! LOOKING LIKE AN ABSOLUTE GEM OF A SPRING DAY TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PESKY PRECIP MAY PUT THE KIBOSH ON BETTER
WARMTH INTO THE EASTERN U.P. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE AFOOT FOR ALL
AREAS BY SATURDAY THOUGH...WITH THE START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKING
LIKE A BIT OF A STINKER FROM A WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. OH WELL...WHAT
CAN YOU DO? THAT`S LIFE DURING THE TRANSITION SEASON HERE UP NORTH.
COULDN`T GET A MUCH BETTER SETUP FOR EARLY SEASON WARMTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT MIXING NORTH TOWARD THE
STRAITS...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY SIT GIVEN THE VERY COLD WATER. THAT
PLACES MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH A
FLOOD OF WARMTH ALOFT BEING TAPPED VIA BETTER MIXING. GIVEN AN
INFLUX OF DRY AIR BELOW 500MB...STRONGLY SUSPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
IS ON TAP SOUTH OF THE STRAITS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS
PLENTY LOW ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ANY PESKY
LAKE STRATUS ISSUES. WITH THAT SUN AND SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES...
HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK INTO THE 50S...PERHAPS NEARING 60 NORTHEAST LOWER
VIA DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE WATER OF COURSE AS
LOCALIZED FLOW MAY BE BACKED NEAR THE COAST.
EASTERN UPPER A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY...STUCK NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
AND LIKELY DEALING WITH A PLETHORA OF THICKER MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. NOT BUYING ANY OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS OF THE GFS
(WAY TOO MOIST PER CURRENT CONDITIONS)...WHICH IN TURN INCREASES
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY FRONTALLY-INDUCED PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT EASTERN
UPPER. THAT IDEA IS ALSO FUELED BY THE BETTER FGEN FORCING WORKING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO (DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM
WHERE IT HAS BEEN TODAY)...WITH THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS FORCING
JUST CLIPPING NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT JUST
SOME SPRINKLES FROM A 7-10KFT CLOUD DECK...BUT CURRENT LOW CHANCE POP
SHOULD WORK. COOLER UP THAT WAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY LOWER 40S GIVEN
MORE CLOUDS AND BACKED FLOW OFF THE COLD LAKE WATERS.
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL WORK INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY 06Z. NOTABLE SHOT OF COOLER AIR BLEEDING
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARMTH IS A CLASSIC SIGNATURE FOR RAPID LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...AND INDEED THERE IS ALREADY WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS BEHIND THIS FEATURE UP IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. IN
ADDITION...AS THE DRIVING UPPER WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND AMPLIFIES
OVERHEAD INTO SATURDAY...COMBO OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING
TROWAL/FGEN FORCING WILL LIKELY DRIVE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST LOWER. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT LIQUID...BUT COOLER AIR BLEEDING INTO
THE PICTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW SETUP FARTHER
NORTH. NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG DEAL...BUT CERTAINLY IT WILL FEEL MUCH
MORE LIKE A "TYPICAL" MARCH DAY HERE WITH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A FEW
SHOWERS (OR MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE DRIZZLE AT TIMES) INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE STUCK IN THE 30S...MAYBE NEAR 40
SOUTHEAST AREAS ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
MUCH MORE QUIET AND "ACCEPTABLE" WEATHER TO END THE WEEKEND AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. GRADUAL LOSS OF THERMAL
TROUGHING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE ON SUNDAY AS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS INTO GEAR. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOWER
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE CU AS ANY REMNANT MOISTURE GETS
LIFTED VIA HEATING. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BACK ABOVE NORMAL (FEELS GREAT
TO TYPE THAT!)...WITH READINGS MAINLY THROUGH THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND GENERATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID
MARCH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WILL BREAK DOWN
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME NEARLY ZONAL ACRS THE STATE MONDAY...WHILE
A SHARP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARND +6C MONDAY...WILL FALL TO ARND -6C BY
MID WEEK BEFORE FALLING TO -18C BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
FORCE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 50S MONDAY TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS
ARND 40 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF PCPN ACRS
NRN MICHIGAN MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR. LLWS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND NE OF LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM MI. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MI FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL SATURDAY. THANKS TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...CONDITIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY VFR.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS LATE THIS EVENING
INTO MID-MORNING FRIDAY...WITH STRONG S TO SSW WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT SHARPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS JET STREAK DIGS FM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH IMPACTS MOSTLY NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER COULD SEE LGT PRECIP. INCLUDED
CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST CWA AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO POSSIBILITY
AS SFC WARMING LAGS WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN RAW MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO FREEZING AT 12Z AFTER
LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL NOT HIT THIS UP TOO HARD THOUGH AS PRECIP
CHANCES OVERALL ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE BY
FRIDAY AFTN WHICH WITH SW WINDS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE UP WELL
INTO THE 50S. RAISED TEMPS FOR AT LEAST WEST HALF. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLEARING...COULD SEE REPEAT OF TUESDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS
ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING BY TIME IT REACHES EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF/NAM AND GEM TO TRACK MAINLY OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. 12Z GFS FAVORS WESTERN TRACK
WHICH BRINGS MORE PRECIP OVER MUCH OF CWA. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF AREA...COLDER AIR ADVECTION BLO H7 WOULD SWITCH ANY RAIN
QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...MORE FZRA COULD ALSO OCCUR AS
COLDER AIR FIRST ARRIVES BLO H9 WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE 0C.
GIVEN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EVEN THE FARTHER EAST NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIP IN THAT CASE WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW UPR MICHIGAN
WHERE NW WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE LIFTING. CHANCES HERE APPEAR EVEN
LESS THAN THOSE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THAT IS UNLESS THE 12Z
GFS IS CORRECT WITH ITS WETTER SOLUTION. STRONG NW WINDS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THOUGH IT COULD
PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SCNTRL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE
SNOW ON GROUND IS LIMITED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT
COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 10C THROUGH 18Z. GFS
MUCH COLDER THOUGH. USED CONSENSUS AND BUMPED UP OVER SCNTRL BUT
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH SPEED OF FROPA AND
THUS THE MAX TEMPS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THAT TIME FRAME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER EAST HALF
WITH MAINLY RAIN UNTIL SUB -10C TEMPS AT H85 CRASH IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. SOME OPEN WATER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR
SO GIVEN LINGERING H85 MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15C MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR LK EFFECT
IN NW FLOW AREAS FM NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EAST CWA. OTHER BIG STORY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. INCREASED THESE
OVER CONSENSUS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF WINDS MAY EVEN END UP STRONGER GIVEN THE SHARP
CONTRAST OF THE AIRMASSES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUB 995MB LOW TRACKING WEST-TO-EAST
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP WITH THE COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES FOR NW FLOW AREAS. H85
TEMPS FM 12Z ECMWF ARE DOWN TO -20C ON TUESDAY. GFS MUCH MORE
MODERATE WITH ONLY -10C THOUGH SO WILL KEEP WITH CONSENSUS AS MODELS
ARE NOT TOO CONSISTENT ON EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS NOW LIFTED NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS NOTED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. UPPER MI IS CLOUD FREE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS GENERATING AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND AND
SRN MANITOBA. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD REACH INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INCREASING IN CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-UPPER RDG FM THE ROCKIES.
TODAY...ANY OF THE MID CLOUDS THAT DRIFT IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH AS WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SFC RDG AXIS AND
ALSO ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S
CNTRL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S PERHAPS EVEN
APPROACHING 50F IN A FEW SPOTS WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH EVEN COOLER
READINGS (MID 30S) ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HIGH RES
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE ON MAX TEMPS
SO SIDED WITH ITS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO BEST CAPTURE THE
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND
ERN LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WL STAY WARMER (MID TO UPPER
20S) DUE TO QUICKER ADVANCE OF CLOUDS AND TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT
AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW LEADING TO INCREASED MIXING FM S-SE WINDS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER MI STAYING DRY WITH WAA PCPN ASSOC WITH PLAINS LOW
GENERALLY STAYING NORTH INTO ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS NOW LIFTED NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS NOTED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. UPPER MI IS CLOUD FREE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS GENERATING AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND AND
SRN MANITOBA. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD REACH INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INCREASING IN CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-UPPER RDG FM THE ROCKIES.
TODAY...ANY OF THE MID CLOUDS THAT DRIFT IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH AS WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SFC RDG AXIS AND
ALSO ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S
CNTRL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S PERHAPS EVEN
APPROACHING 50F IN A FEW SPOTS WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH EVEN COOLER
READINGS (MID 30S) ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HIGH RES
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE ON MAX TEMPS
SO SIDED WITH ITS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO BEST CAPTURE THE
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND
ERN LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WL STAY WARMER (MID TO UPPER
20S) DUE TO QUICKER ADVANCE OF CLOUDS AND TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT
AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW LEADING TO INCREASED MIXING FM S-SE WINDS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER MI STAYING DRY WITH WAA PCPN ASSOC WITH PLAINS LOW
GENERALLY STAYING NORTH INTO ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS NOW LIFTED NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS NOTED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. UPPER MI IS CLOUD FREE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS GENERATING AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND AND
SRN MANITOBA. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD REACH INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INCREASING IN CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-UPPER RDG FM THE ROCKIES.
TODAY...ANY OF THE MID CLOUDS THAT DRIFT IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH AS WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SFC RDG AXIS AND
ALSO ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S
CNTRL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S PERHAPS EVEN
APPROACHING 50F IN A FEW SPOTS WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH EVEN COOLER
READINGS (MID 30S) ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HIGH RES
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE ON MAX TEMPS
SO SIDED WITH ITS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO BEST CAPTURE THE
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND
ERN LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WL STAY WARMER (MID TO UPPER
20S) DUE TO QUICKER ADVANCE OF CLOUDS AND TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT
AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW LEADING TO INCREASED MIXING FM S-SE WINDS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER MI STAYING DRY WITH WAA PCPN ASSOC WITH PLAINS LOW
GENERALLY STAYING NORTH INTO ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO...JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER
JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO -4C TO -6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 30 ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WED...ANY LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXEPCT DRIER AND COOLDER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NW WINDS
BOOSTED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S CNTRL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO...JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER
JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO -4C TO -6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 30 ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WED...ANY LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXEPCT DRIER AND COOLDER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NW WINDS
BOOSTED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S CNTRL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU-NEXT TUESDAY
AS W-NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
IN THE 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN ON BOTH OF THOSE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
THE CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING RAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGARDS OF PHASING
OF THE NRN SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
MAINTAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND AS SUCH MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST
FASTER. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST MORE PHASING AND AS SUCH
ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE GEM/UKMET. AS SUCH...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. REGARDLESS...THE BIG
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT RISE
TO ABOVE +10C SO SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL
YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Have expanded the dense fog advisory to included southeast
Missouri while also adding the mention of locally dense fog to
Missouri counties of the St. Louis metro area. Observations
between 10 and 11 pm indicate fog development continues to expand
west and southwest from Illinois, especially into southeast Missouri
where the the stratus from earlier today has recently cleared
allowing temperatures to fall to near the current dew points and
winds are nearly calm.
Glass
Issued at 937 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Fog already forming over parts of southwest IL early this evening
and this coverage is expected to expand as we head into the
overnight hours with ripe antecedent conditions for fog in this
region.
A lot of this came about from thick low cloud that persisted thru
the day today in this area and has only recently cleared out in
the past few hours, leaving behind small dewpoint depressions from
the outset, still wet ground from recently melted snow cover, and
light winds forecast thanks to a surface ridge axis stretched over
the area. Crossover temps calculated from this afternoon are
easily attainable and we expect forecast min temps to be several
degrees below the crossover values in this region.
As a result, and in an attempt to stay a step ahead of it, went
with a Dense Fog Advisory for much of southwest IL, stopping just
short of STL city, and this follows the outline of the HRRR VSBY
forecast pretty closely.
Elsewhere, look for clear skies overnight with more patchy fog
coverage, although areas in southeast MO and parts of STL metro
may be candidates for the expansion of the Advisory overnight but
will wait for more evidence before doing so. Min temps from the
mid 30s to the lower 40s are expected.
A quick peak at tomorrow (Wednesday), shows plenty of sunshine
after the fog dissipates, but a weak frontal boundary will have
already dropped thru northern MO and central IL by mid-morning and
will push thru the remainder of the CWA by early afternoon.
Effects on temps will be minimal for most areas, and in fact, we
are looking at higher max temps than persistence for most. The
exception will be in northeast MO and west-central IL where
anticipated CAA will be stronger thanks to more persistent
stubborn fog and its associated colder temps in a NE wind regime.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Light rain and drizzle has shifted east of the forecast area late
this afternoon as weak surface low over western KY continues to move
northeastward. The sky will continue to clear from northwest to
southeast through the night with the moisture profile becoming more
shallow. The clearing sky, light surface winds, only a gradual and
relatively slight drop in surface dew points, and wet ground due to
recent rain along with snow melt in some areas will lead to the
development of fog later tonight. The lows tonight will still be
fairly mild and slightly above normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
A surface ridge will move through the region on Wednesday. After
the fog lifts tomorrow morning, little if any cloudiness will lead
to above normal highs in the 60s. Rain will spread back northward
into our forecast area Thursday afternoon and night as a southerly
low level jet brings low level warm air advection and low level
moisture back northward into our area, and a surface low will move
northward from the Gulf Coast. The NAM is still the quickest in
bringing rain northward into the area. For now followed closer to
the slower progression of the rain into our area for Thursday and
Thursday night of the GFS and ECMWF models. There are also some
model differences with the track of the upper level low moving into
our area from the Plains and the surface low track, but it appears
that rain should move through southeast MO and southwest IL by
Thursday evening, then into most of the rest of the forecast area by
late Thursday night. Rain will continue on Friday as the surface
low moves northeastward through AR and southeast MO. Light rain may
linger Friday night until the upper level trough moves east of the
area. Only slightly cooler air is expected for Saturday as an upper
level trough moves through the Great Lakes region and a surface
ridge builds into the area. Warmer temperatures are expected for
Sunday and Monday as the surface wind becomes southerly as the
surface ridge shifts east of our area, and as upper level heights
rise over the central US. The ECMWF brings a cold front southward
through our area Monday afternoon and evening, while the GFS is a
little slower bringing it through Monday night. Neither model
generates any precipitation associated with this front, but does
bring colder air into the region behind the front for Tuesday.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Fog development is occuring a tad ahead of schedule across metro
St. Louis and into Illinois and both KCPS and KSUS are already reporting
VLIFR flight conditions with dense fog and visibilities of 1/4SM.
These conditions will persist overnight while fog development
continues to the west across Missouri. Temp/dew point spreads are
currently a bit greater and there is a little wind at both KCOU or
KUIN, thus the current expectation is the visibility won`t drop
lower than IFR. The fog should dissipate 14-16z with VFR flight
conditions dominating thereafter.
Specifics for KSTL:
The visibility dropped a bit earlier than expected and should
continue to slowly decrease overnight. Given the current temp/dew
point spread I am inclined to believe that the visibility should
only get down to around 1SM/the IFR flight category. The fog should
dissipate around 15z with VFR flight conditions dominating
thereafter.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Iron
MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton
IL-Fayette IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
909 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS EVENING REVOLVE AROUND HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. THE
GAGE ON THE BIG MUDDY CREEK NEAR ANTELOPE SHOWS WATER LEVELS HAVE
RISEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. OTHER
CHANGES WERE FAIRLY MINOR AND CONSISTED OF JUST TWEAKS TO BRING
FORECAST IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND EXISTING TRENDS. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH PASSED
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLIER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AMID BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. WITH SUCH A DRY SURFACE LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AS THIS
CONVECTION IS SHOWING UP ON THE HRRR MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO DRY AND
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...MOST OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
UNDER THIS RIDGE. LATER ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE WITH ACCUMULATING PRECIP AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS HAVE HONED IN A BIT MORE WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM.
THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC AS IT HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT. THE GFS HIT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WELL
WITH QPF AND WAS A COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS AND GET A STRONGER WORD OUT BY FRIDAY AS THIS WILL BE A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE. AN ISOLATED ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY SW
PHILLIPS AS IT MAY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
BRING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND MONTANA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH THE ECMWF TIMES IT FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY
AND THE GFS HAS IT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING
DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SUNDAYS HIGHS. WILL SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD TURN INTO SNOW
SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON A TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GFS CURRENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BROADBRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST CYCLE.
CIGS AND VSBY: UNRESTRICTED.
PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHERIDAN.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
913 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED FASTER THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
UPPER RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWED DEEP MIXING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MIXING WILL COMBINE
WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PREFRONTAL AIRMASS TO BRING VERY WARM
CONDITIONS...DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN A
FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDINGS. KBIL WILL HAVE A NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AND KMLS WILL LIKELY TIE OR BREAK A RECORD
HIGH. LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER KLVM AND
BIG TIMBER. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU...AND WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO THE GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES. KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SPREAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THU. THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPING AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE DATA DID NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN A TENTH /0.10/ WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL NOT BE VERY
COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THU.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
A SOLID RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES RACING THROUGH CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE INTO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH WETTER/COOLER THAN
THE GFS /AS WELL AS QUICKER/ AND COULD RESULT IN SOME WET
SNOWFALL AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INTO
EARLY MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE PROGGS INDICATE A PROBABLE REBOUND
AFTER THIS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
INVADES THE ROCKIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDWEEK. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF
AT DAY 6 THROUGH 8 TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST VERY MUCH. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
TODAY SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...AS MIXING INCREASES
DUE TO AN OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 043/065 037/064 038/071 047/072 039/051 029/056
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
LVM 064 044/061 037/063 039/067 047/069 041/053 029/056
0/N 53/W 20/U 00/B 01/N 44/W 11/B
HDN 071 040/067 035/066 035/073 043/074 038/055 027/059
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
MLS 070 040/065 037/064 033/071 045/072 038/051 027/055
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 10/U
4BQ 069 037/065 034/064 033/071 040/073 037/052 026/057
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/B
BHK 069 036/062 033/060 032/068 042/070 036/047 024/052
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/U
SHR 065 037/062 035/061 032/069 040/071 039/051 025/054
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 33/W 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
229 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
UPPER RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWED DEEP MIXING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MIXING WILL COMBINE
WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PREFRONTAL AIRMASS TO BRING VERY WARM
CONDITIONS...DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN A
FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDINGS. KBIL WILL HAVE A NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AND KMLS WILL LIKELY TIE OR BREAK A RECORD
HIGH. LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER KLVM AND
BIG TIMBER. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU...AND WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO THE GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES. KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SPREAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THU. THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPING AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE DATA DID NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN A TENTH /0.10/ WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL NOT BE VERY
COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THU.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
A SOLID RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES RACING THROUGH CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE INTO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH WETTER/COOLER THAN
THE GFS /AS WELL AS QUICKER/ AND COULD RESULT IN SOME WET
SNOWFALL AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INTO
EARLY MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE PROGGS INDICATE A PROBABLE REBOUND
AFTER THIS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
INVADES THE ROCKIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDWEEK. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF
AT DAY 6 THROUGH 8 TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST VERY MUCH. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 043/065 037/064 038/071 047/072 039/051 029/056
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
LVM 067 044/061 037/063 039/067 047/069 041/053 029/056
0/N 53/W 20/U 00/B 01/N 44/W 11/B
HDN 074 040/067 035/066 035/073 043/074 038/055 027/059
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
MLS 073 040/065 037/064 033/071 045/072 038/051 027/055
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 10/U
4BQ 072 037/065 034/064 033/071 040/073 037/052 026/057
0/U 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/B
BHK 070 036/062 033/060 032/068 042/070 036/047 024/052
0/U 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/U
SHR 068 037/062 035/061 032/069 040/071 039/051 025/054
0/U 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 33/W 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO TONIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IT`S BEEN A DAY OF EXTREMES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. INLAND TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO THE HIGHEST
READINGS OBSERVED ALL YEAR WITH A RECORD-TYING 86 DEGREES IN
FLORENCE AND A RECORD-BREAKING 84 IN WILMINGTON. IN FACT VIRTUALLY
EVERY LOCATION MORE THAN 3 OR 4 MILES INLAND REACHED 80+ DEGREES
TODAY. AT THE BEACHES IT`S BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY WITH COLD MARINE
AIR HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SPRINGMAID PIER IN MYRTLE BEACH
AND OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPERATURES RISE
OUT OF THE 50S ALL DAY!
DENSE SEA FOG...FORMED BY HUMID AIR STREAMING OVER VERY COLD
NEARSHORE WATERS...HAS AFFECTED MAINLY THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES
ALL DAY. UNTIL WINDS VEER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT I FEAR FOG
WILL SPREAD BACK ONTO THE HORRY COUNTY BEACHES THIS EVENING. I AM
PREPARING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL HORRY COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE IN PIECES. THE FIRST PIECE/LEADING EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF CHARLOTTE TO JUST SOUTH OF
ASHEBORO TO NEAR RALEIGH...WHILE A SECOND BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIE
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PIECE WILL
ACTUALLY BE DEFINED AS "THE FRONT" I AM EXPECTING FROPA IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 8-10 PM...AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
VIRTUALLY ABSENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO FAR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE WEAK AIRMASS INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AFTER
DARK ALONG THE FRONT. 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD...SO DESPITE FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
BETWEEN 850-700 MB PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT IN THE GEORGETOWN-MYRTLE BEACH AREA...TO 50-60 PERCENT
ACROSS LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
COOL ADVECTION IS NOT PRONOUNCED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MY FORECAST
LOWS ARE AT THE HIGH END OF THE MOS RANGE...AROUND 56-61 ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH 54-59 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE RAINFALL AND ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST AFTER
18Z FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH NE COUNTIES TILL FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW
60S EAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO
UPPER 50S EAST BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RISING TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES ASHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM BUT WET TO START THE PERIOD...BEFORE A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY...NO
REAL ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A COASTAL FRONT/WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 295K LEVEL WILL
INITIALLY DRIVE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WILL SHUT OFF BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY
A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
AN END TO ANY PRECIP. WHILE DRY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FROPA...COLD ADVECTION LAGS A BIT BEHIND...SO TEMPS
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...NEAR SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
THEREAFTER...NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY DESPITE 2 COLD SURGES CROSSING
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE SECOND WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER OF THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP...AND THE COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IS WEAK. STILL...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MONDAY...AND THEN AROUND CLIMO WEDNESDAY...WHILE
RISING ABOVE FOR TUESDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE
PLEASANT LATE SPRING WEATHER WITH NO TRULY COLD AIR ANYWHERE ON THE
HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SOME SEA STRATUS/FOG WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE COAST...OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE ONSET. A COLD FRONT
IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. LOOK
FOR INTERMITTENT LIGHT CONVECTION AT AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING AFTER THAT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH FALLING TEMPS...AS
WELL AS FALLING CEILINGS. IFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET TOWARD
MORNING...LIFTING BACK TO IFR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY CLIMBING TEMPS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURS WITH VFR
DEVELOPING. EARLY FRI VFR. IFR/MVFR/SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE FRI
PERSISTING INTO SAT. VFR DEVELOPING SUN AND PERSISTING INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
STREAKS OF DENSE SEA FOG COVERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THE THICKEST
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEACHES...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CAPE FEAR. THIS FOG IS THE
RESULT OF HUMID AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA BEING CHILLED
DOWN TO ITS DEWPOINT BY THE VERY COLD LOCAL OCEAN WATERS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND AROUND
MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP EARLY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO VEER THIS EVENING.
SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL PUSH
SEAS EAST OF CAPE FEAR UP TOWARD 5 FEET BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
ON THURS WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE THURS INTO FRI WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THURS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WE COULD SEE SCA
THRESHOLDS REACHED THURS AFTN AND NIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IS WATER TEMPERATURES AS THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD RELATIVE TO THEM. THIS COULD KEEP SCA LEVEL
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS WINDS UP
TO 25 KT BUT CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THAT LEVEL IS LOW SO AN SCA
HAS NOT BEEN RAISED ATTM. IF WINDS COME UP ENOUGH...SEAS COULD
BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO S BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS INVOF OF 15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF AROUND 4 FT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN
DURING SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS AND
ONSHORE. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SLOW VEERING TO THE SW OCCURRING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTH WINDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING LATE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AS THE ELEVATED
SW WINDS DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT...BUT THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED THANKS TO THE NW FLOW SUNDAY PUSHING THE HIGHEST SEAS
OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT WITH A
NW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT...AND THEN FALL FURTHER MONDAY TO 1-3 FT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
FG HAS ALREADY FORMED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK...AROUND KADM/KDUA...AND
THERE ARE HINTS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W...TO NEAR KLAW/KSPS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST RISK FOR LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN
S OK/N TX...SO HAVE RETAINED THE FG FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
N-CENTRAL OK WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SCATTERED BR IN THE KPNC/KEND AREA. FG SHOULD BE AT ITS
DENSEST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE IN A
PATCHWORK...AS IT USUALLY DOES. BY 18Z...ALL THE FG/BR SHOULD BE
GONE...LEAVING GENERALLY SKC...GOOD VISIBILITIES...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE ARE TO REMOVE THE EVENING CLOUDS AND
HIT FOG A LITTLE STRONGER. THE OVERCAST THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY HAS MOVED NORTHEAST AND CLEARED ALL BUT A FEW
ACRES OF SOUTHEAST BRYAN COUNTY. RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ARDMORE
MUNICIPAL NEAR GENE AUTRY HAS JUST GONE TO ZERO VISIBILITY AND
ATOKA JUST CAME DOWN TO 3/4. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THESE LOW VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH A DAMP GROUND...LIGHT WINDS...AND A CLEAR SKY OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD BR...AND A FEW AREAS OF FG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FG IS MOST LIKELY NEAR AND SE OF KSPS TO KLAW TO
KSRE. PARTICULARLY DENSE FG IS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KADM.
ALTHOUGH BR/FG IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SEVERAL MODELS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH TYPICAL OCCURRENCES AFTER
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS IN LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. ASSUMING FG
DOES FORM...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND WE
EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...THANKS TO A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MUNDANE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...A FEW COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT COOL OFF. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
MODELS DIVERGE THAT FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 71 44 69 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 41 72 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 74 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 73 41 70 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 44 69 46 66 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
924 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY VIRGA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
NAM TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH ARE VERIFYING
WELL WITH OBSERVED CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY AROUND
10K TO 12K FT MSL. THE 00Z NAM AND SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z
GFS HAVE ARRIVED AND SUPPORT THE FORECAST TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST SIDE BEGINNING AROUND 11 PM WITH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEEKEND WEATHER.
THE NEWLY ARRIVED GFS DATA HAS TRENDED WETTER FOR OUR AREA WITH
WEST SIDE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. INLAND, EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. KRBG, KMFR AND KLMT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 0335 PM PDT TUESDAY 10 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS, DUE TO WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. INITIALLY SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN WIND SEAS WILL
MIX WITH BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL AND MAY BECOME VERY STEEP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 13 FT AT
AROUND 9 SECONDS. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH GALES FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECOND WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT...BUT SOME RUNS INDICATE WINDS REACHING
NEAR GALE FORCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FRONT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE EUREKA RADAR ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS, BUT
IT`S LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS,
THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AT THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE CASCADES WITH 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS, BUT REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 6500 AND
7000 FEET TONIGHT, THEREFORE ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CRATER
LAKE AND ON TOP OF MOUNT ASHLAND.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -20 AND -22 C
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE BASED AND 850 MB LIFTED INDICES IN
THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
IN PARTS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OUT THERE.
THEREFORE WE`LL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 6500, BUT
IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO 6000 FEET IN AREAS
THAT GET HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOST SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AND WE`LL
HAVE A RETURN TO DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT..THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR SATURDAY LEAVING HIGHER POPS MAINLY COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOOL STILL SHOWING
70% CHC OF IVT EXCEEDING 500. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
RAIN FOR SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF KEEP SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE NW. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
DW/BTL/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN OVER
THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO CREATE
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. THE MOIST WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BRIEF...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY...WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE STILL ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE SW PORTION OF THE RAIN AREA
BECOMING MORE SCT. WILL KEEP POP TREND IN THE SCT CAT OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS AS CLOUDS SLOWER TO INCREASE
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HIGHS AROUBND 80 IN THE LOWER PIEMDONT
AREAS.
AS OF 0945 AM...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS INTO FAR WESTERN NC. LATEST RAP BRINGS THE FRONT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS CIRCA 22Z. COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAY DIMINISH AS THE
FORNT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN. HENCE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WAS TO LOWER THEM
SOMEWHAT BY BLENDING IN THE LATEST CONSHORT POPS. THIS STILL GIVES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERATES SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
FIELDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION: AS OF 645 AM...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN/KY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO
DRIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST TN...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. SAID AXIS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EWD LATER THIS MRNG
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE. THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TRANSIENT SHOWERS BEFORE
DAWN...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AND BECOMING FOCUSED MORE EWD
AS THE BOUNDARY ENCROACHES. A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AT LEAST. SOME OF THE BETTER DRAINAGES IN THE
REGION MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF MILE...BUT
THESE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. EXPECTATIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA AS A
BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT. THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS NOT
SPECTACULAR IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN TERMS OF
PCPBL WATER...BEING UPWARDS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE NWS RAPID
CITY PWAT CLIMO CHARTS AT BOTH ATLANTA AND GREENSBORO. IT ALSO
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR MODELS ALL SHOW SBCAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE FRONT TIMED TO BE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER AROUND THEN. MADE A MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE CAPES
SEEMED SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...MOSTLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THUS DEVELOP CELLS DROPPING
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. BLENDED A
BIT OF QPF FROM THESE MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC MODEL CONSENSUS THIS
AFTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. ON ANOTHER NOTE...25-35 KT OF
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORIENTED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IS NOT IN PLAY UNTIL AFTER THE
FROPA...SO DOWNBURST WINDS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MULTIPLE CELLS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOIL/STREAM CAPACITY IS LIKELY PRETTY HIGH
GIVEN RECENT DRY WX...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE COMFORTABLY WARM...5-10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM N TO S BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACRS THE
AREA. HOWEVER MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 15 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DAMMING
LOCATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SRLY FLOW UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THU...BUT WITH THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME LIKELY SHUNTED WELL
WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE MOIST
UPGLIDE AND CAD SETUP...EXPECT MAXES TO BE LIMITED TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON THU...AND THEN UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE HEART OF THE CAD EVENT ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF THU NIGHT
AND FRI SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS TO
DEVELOP...UNLESS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE MOIST THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE UPGLIDE FORCING WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE FRI
NIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW VEERS SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHUD BE CROSSING THE AREA (OR ALREADY THRU THE AREA)
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
UPPER TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON
SUNDAY...USHERING IN NWLY 500 MB FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST ACRS THE
CWFA THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROF WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...SO EXPECT DRY WX WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK DRY COLD FRONTS PASS THRU WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN A SLGT CHC POP ALONG
THE TN BORDER WILL BE CARRIED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKTAF 000
TTAA00 KCAE 111043
AT KCLT...MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE AIRFIELD WILL SEE ANY THUNDER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA BY
21Z. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER 50S...SBCAPE WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND HAVE A 2
HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 20-22Z. OTHERWISE JUST VFR CLOUDS WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS TURING NW BY 21Z...AND THEN NE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AS COLD AIR
DAMMING DEVLOPS.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AVL AND HKY...AND WILL
REACH THE SC AIRFIELDS IN THE 20Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. WILL MENTION TEMPO
SHRA AT AVL/HKY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OR A COUPLE HOURS YET PER
RADAR. IN SC....WILL STAY WITH CONTINUITY AND MENTION A TEMPO -TSRA
THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING LOWER SO IT COULD BE JUST -SHRA.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVLOP AFTER 12Z THU AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE LATER
THURSDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% MED 75%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KAVL MED 67% MED 68% MED 72% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 68%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 79%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN OVER
THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO CREATE
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. THE MOIST WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BRIEF...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY...WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM...COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE STILL ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE SW PORTION OF
THE RAIN AREA BECOMING MORE SCT. WILL KEEP POP TREND IN THE SCT
CAT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS AS CLOUDS
SLOWER TO INCREASE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HIGHS AROUBND 80
IN THE LOWER PIEMDONT AREAS.
AS OF 0945 AM...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS INTO FAR WESTERN NC. LATEST RAP BRINGS THE FRONT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS CIRCA 22Z. COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAY DIMINISH AS THE
FORNT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN. HENCE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WAS TO LOWER THEM
SOMEWHAT BY BLENDING IN THE LATEST CONSHORT POPS. THIS STILL GIVES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERATES SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
FIELDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION: AS OF 645 AM...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN/KY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO
DRIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST TN...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. SAID AXIS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EWD LATER THIS MRNG
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE. THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TRANSIENT SHOWERS BEFORE
DAWN...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AND BECOMING FOCUSED MORE EWD
AS THE BOUNDARY ENCROACHES. A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AT LEAST. SOME OF THE BETTER DRAINAGES IN THE
REGION MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF MILE...BUT
THESE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. EXPECTATIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA AS A
BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT. THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS NOT
SPECTACULAR IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN TERMS OF
PCPBL WATER...BEING UPWARDS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE NWS RAPID
CITY PWAT CLIMO CHARTS AT BOTH ATLANTA AND GREENSBORO. IT ALSO
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR MODELS ALL SHOW SBCAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE FRONT TIMED TO BE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER AROUND THEN. MADE A MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE CAPES
SEEMED SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...MOSTLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THUS DEVELOP CELLS DROPPING
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. BLENDED A
BIT OF QPF FROM THESE MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC MODEL CONSENSUS THIS
AFTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. ON ANOTHER NOTE...25-35 KT OF
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORIENTED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IS NOT IN PLAY UNTIL AFTER THE
FROPA...SO DOWNBURST WINDS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MULTIPLE CELLS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOIL/STREAM CAPACITY IS LIKELY PRETTY HIGH
GIVEN RECENT DRY WX...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE COMFORTABLY WARM...5-10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM N TO S BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACRS THE
AREA. HOWEVER MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 15 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DAMMING
LOCATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SRLY FLOW UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THU...BUT WITH THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME LIKELY SHUNTED WELL
WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE MOIST
UPGLIDE AND CAD SETUP...EXPECT MAXES TO BE LIMITED TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON THU...AND THEN UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE HEART OF THE CAD EVENT ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF THU NIGHT
AND FRI SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS TO
DEVELOP...UNLESS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE MOIST THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE UPGLIDE FORCING WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE FRI
NIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW VEERS SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD WEDGE KEEPING A TOE HOLD IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK SAT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE VERY
SLOW TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A TRUE SCOURING MECHANISM
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT WEDGE EROSION OCCURS SAT
AFTN...ENOUGH PIEDMONT INSTABILITY COULD BE UNCOVERED FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN EXTREME ERN/SRN SECTIONS...BUT WILL JUST KEEP A
SCATTERED SHOWER MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE DIGGING TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
DEEPER DRYING ENSUING. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER FROM THE W. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW ON TUE...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIG/VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SINK THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS. A SEASONALLY MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES...SO I
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU LATE
AFTN. POST FROPA DRIER AIR THEN WILL SETTLE IN AND WINDS FLIP TO
NLY. A LOW VFR CIG IS LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR DAYBREAK THU.
ELSEWHERE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACRS THE AREA TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACRS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CIGS IN
SOME PLACES. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TS
MENTION AT THE SC SITES. PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY TS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND RESULTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT
LEAST ISOLATED AREAS SAW IFR VSBY IN TSRA THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POST FROPA AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO
THE REGION...CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPS...BUT WILL OMIT SUCH FROM CURRENT TAF SET. SOME MTN VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE WEEK IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO...WHICH LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE APPRECIABLY SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 62%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 66% HIGH 100% LOW 58% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND LOW 58% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
953 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN OVER
THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO CREATE
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. THE MOIST WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BRIEF...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY...WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0945 AM...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS INTO FAR WESTERN NC. LATEST RAP BRINGS THE FRONT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS CIRCA 22Z. COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAY DIMINISH AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN. HENCE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WAS TO LOWER THEM
SOMEWHAT BY BLENDING IN THE LATEST CONSHORT POPS. THIS STILL GIVES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERATES SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
FIELDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION: AS OF 645 AM...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN/KY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO
DRIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST TN...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. SAID AXIS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EWD LATER THIS MRNG
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE. THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TRANSIENT SHOWERS BEFORE
DAWN...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AND BECOMING FOCUSED MORE EWD
AS THE BOUNDARY ENCROACHES. A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AT LEAST. SOME OF THE BETTER DRAINAGES IN THE
REGION MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF MILE...BUT
THESE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. EXPECTATIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA AS A
BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT. THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS NOT
SPECTACULAR IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN TERMS OF
PCPBL WATER...BEING UPWARDS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE NWS RAPID
CITY PWAT CLIMO CHARTS AT BOTH ATLANTA AND GREENSBORO. IT ALSO
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR MODELS ALL SHOW SBCAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE FRONT TIMED TO BE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER AROUND THEN. MADE A MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE CAPES
SEEMED SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...MOSTLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THUS DEVELOP CELLS DROPPING
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. BLENDED A
BIT OF QPF FROM THESE MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC MODEL CONSENSUS THIS
AFTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. ON ANOTHER NOTE...25-35 KT OF
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORIENTED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IS NOT IN PLAY UNTIL AFTER THE
FROPA...SO DOWNBURST WINDS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MULTIPLE CELLS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOIL/STREAM CAPACITY IS LIKELY PRETTY HIGH
GIVEN RECENT DRY WX...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE COMFORTABLY WARM...5-10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM N TO S BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACRS THE
AREA. HOWEVER MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 15 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DAMMING
LOCATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SRLY FLOW UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THU...BUT WITH THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME LIKELY SHUNTED WELL
WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE MOIST
UPGLIDE AND CAD SETUP...EXPECT MAXES TO BE LIMITED TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON THU...AND THEN UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE HEART OF THE CAD EVENT ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF THU NIGHT
AND FRI SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS TO
DEVELOP...UNLESS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE MOIST THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE UPGLIDE FORCING WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE FRI
NIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW VEERS SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD WEDGE KEEPING A TOE HOLD IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK SAT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE VERY
SLOW TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A TRUE SCOURING MECHANISM
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT WEDGE EROSION OCCURS SAT
AFTN...ENOUGH PIEDMONT INSTABILITY COULD BE UNCOVERED FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN EXTREME ERN/SRN SECTIONS...BUT WILL JUST KEEP A
SCATTERED SHOWER MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE DIGGING TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
DEEPER DRYING ENSUING. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER FROM THE W. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW ON TUE...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIG/VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SINK THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS. A SEASONALLY MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES...SO I
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU LATE
AFTN. POST FROPA DRIER AIR THEN WILL SETTLE IN AND WINDS FLIP TO
NLY. A LOW VFR CIG IS LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR DAYBREAK THU.
ELSEWHERE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACRS THE AREA TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACRS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CIGS IN
SOME PLACES. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TS
MENTION AT THE SC SITES. PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY TS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND RESULTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT
LEAST ISOLATED AREAS SAW IFR VSBY IN TSRA THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POST FROPA AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO
THE REGION...CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPS...BUT WILL OMIT SUCH FROM CURRENT TAF SET. SOME MTN VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE WEEK IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO...WHICH LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE APPRECIABLY SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 90% MED 63% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% MED 68% HIGH 81% MED 76%
KHKY HIGH 86% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 92% MED 66% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 82% MED 65% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WET WX PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE THRU 13/24Z. DO NOT EXPECT
PREDOMINATE RAIN UNTIL AROUND 13/06Z TAF SITES...AND WITH SCT RAIN SHWRS
EXPECTED UNTIL THEN...WILL MENTION VCSH. EXPECT NIMBO-STRATUS VFR CEILINGS
TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR/ALONG WITH VSBYS...BY 13/06Z. THE GENERAL TREND
OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THRU 13/24Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOST ENHANCED CKV BETWEEN 13/09Z-13/14Z PER
EXPECTED DEEPEST MOISTURE POOLING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED
THRU 13/24Z ALSO AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE FROM SW...WITH GUSTS OF
18KTS-20KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AS
WELL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
FIELDS ARE INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS NW ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE INFLECTION POINT REACHES
OUR AREA...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL SCALE DOWN THE PRE MIDNIGHT WEATHER
GRIDS TO INCLUDE LIKELY AND CHC LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF THE
WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL LEVEL PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...AT MID-AFTERNOON IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE MILD
OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES AT MANY POINTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON
RADAR, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-24.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY RAINY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
SINCE A FINAL SHOT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ENDING TIME OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MID-
STATE. HOWEVER, BEFORE MAKING ANY SUCH CHANGE, WOULD LIKE TO GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT NEW DATA TO MORE DEFINITIVELY
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS PRIOR
TO SATURDAY AND WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE
SAME.
RIGHT NOW, EXPECT RAIN TOTALS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY NIGHT TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE
GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BY 12Z FRI, WINDS AT 850MB SHOULD BE
BLOWING AT 35 TO 40 KTS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EAST. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, COULD RECEIVED ANOTHER ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY`S
WEATHER, AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, TO DETERMINE IF WE
NEED TO EXTEND THE END POINT OF OUR FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION,
CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, THAT WILL SEE THE FRONT COME THROUGH
AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY).
LONG TERM...STILL EXPECT A DRY SPELL FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND BRING ALONG ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY--WHICH
WILL BRING US UP TO THE EVE OF THE VERNAL EQUINOX.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>008-023>027-056>061-093>095.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z. WRN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
FETCH CONNECTION PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU 11/18Z...BUT THEN
SHIFT SLIGHT EWD THRU 12/06Z. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ERN HALF OF MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z BNA/CSV...
WITH FLUCTUATING MAINLY MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS. AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS NW PORTIONS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IMPACTS CKV...
BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE. ALSO EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO IFR CEILINGS BNA
11/08Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 11/18Z...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. DESPITE THIS SHIFT EWD...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST TO SUPPORT MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUATIONS BNA/CKV AND
IFR CSV THRU 12/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE DEFINITIVE MOISTURE DEPTH GRADIENT IS BECOMING
MORE APPARENT AS NW AREAS ARE SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS JUST PUSHED ACROSS THE CKV AND BWG
AREAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
PLATEAU AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1F AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
ALSO...WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL ONLY CARRY 30 AND 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
850 MB TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ENHANCE OUR LOW LEVEL LIFT. LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH MOISTURE
FILLING IN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BY 06Z. FAR NW AREAS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AL OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHEN THIS MOISTURE MEETS UP WITH THE
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE RADAR SHOULD FILL IN NICELY.
SO...CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SE
HALF AND THEN A LIKELY AREA JUST NW OF THERE...FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
OTW...LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS
ACROSS THE NW AS SOME CAA TAKES PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 11/24Z. WRN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION FETCH
CONNECTION PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU 11/24Z...BUT WITH
A SLIGHT SHIFT EWD AS PERIOD TIME PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z
BNA/CKV. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE AND
POTENTIALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z CKV...ALTHOUGH IFR FOG
INDUCED VSBYS ANTICIPATED. ALSO EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM 11/03Z-11/18Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 11/18Z AS BULK OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EWD.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SLUG OF
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE GULF INTO LA/MS...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW LOW CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES
BUT CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WAA HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S/50S.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL WIN OUT
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG WAA COMBINED
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LI VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LATEST WPC QPF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SHOW
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. ASOS LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED 0.50 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
ABOUT HALF WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL/WPC QPF SHOWED.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOOKING AT 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND MAY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR
ESF.
BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS
INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS IT LINGERS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING IT
EASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THINGS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH AND DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
910 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES IN THIS EVENING UPDATE. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
GRIDS OF TEMPS...DP...AND SKY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE
A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THAT LITTLE OF THIS RAIN HAS ARRIVED...YET. WE STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD SOME OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM SERIES STILL WANTS TO EXPAND PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS DO NOT. I WILL
SIDE WITH THE HI-RES HRRR AND DELAY A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE
RAIN INTO OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
/00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE TRENDS IN CEILINGS AT THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINS NEARBY.
CURRENTLY...VFR CIGS PREVAIL AT ALL MAJOR AIRPORTS...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY 25 MILES EAST OF DALLAS LOVE AT THIS TIME.
WITH EASTERLY WINDS NOW PREVAILING...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS BY 3Z IN THE METROPLEX...PARTICULARLY
DFW/DAL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONS AS THIS
TIMING MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
SEPARATION BETWEEN LOW CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS. AT WACO...SIMILAR TIMING IS EXPECTED ON LOWER CIGS
LATER THIS EVENING. DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE
CHARLES...WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
ATHENS LINE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 SATURDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WILL HANDLE THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE NOT GONE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS. 58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 65 53 68 47 / 30 50 30 20 10
WACO, TX 51 71 52 69 47 / 20 20 10 20 10
PARIS, TX 51 63 52 68 48 / 80 80 40 20 10
DENTON, TX 50 64 51 68 44 / 20 40 30 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 63 51 67 46 / 40 50 30 20 10
DALLAS, TX 52 66 53 68 48 / 30 50 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 52 65 52 67 47 / 50 50 30 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 52 67 52 68 49 / 40 40 30 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 50 73 51 70 48 / 10 20 10 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 48 70 50 69 45 / 10 20 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. KAUS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME TEMPO IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-16Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO KSAT/KSSF DURING THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT TO KDRT IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WE/LL
CONTINUE A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
PRETTY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING A BIT FASTER
THAN TRENDED IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. SO ADJUSTED FOR THAT. RE-
EVALUATED FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RANGING
FROM 3-10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY STAYING QUITE DRY. THE OBS ARE HINTING AT A PRETTY ISOLATED
FOG SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
POCKETS OF SURFACE MOISTURE SO KEPT THE AREA WIDE PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
TB3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMER READINGS
WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRODUCTION OF GROUND FOG. THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW FOG THAT WOULD BE MORE DENSE. WILL KEEP JUST PATCHY FOG
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODELS HAVE NOT JUMPED ON BOARD YET. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT-TERM
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MENTION 20
POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...OUT OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF BY
SATURDAY. THE MAIN PARENT TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES PERSISTENT TO WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE CUT OFF LOW TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST...THUS IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST 20 POPS TUESDAY UNTIL THERE IS MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 51 72 50 74 / 10 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 51 71 48 73 / 10 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 51 73 49 74 / 10 10 10 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 49 70 47 72 / - - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 48 72 50 76 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 50 70 48 73 / - 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 49 73 48 74 / - 10 - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 51 72 49 74 / 10 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 50 71 50 73 / 10 20 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 51 73 49 74 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 51 73 50 74 / 10 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AS THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...
A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
BETTER MOISTURE CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING
AROUND 9Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND VIS WILL DETERIORATE WITH
ANY MODERATE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS. THE CIGS LIFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MOVES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR THE RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY INCREASING NORTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DECOUPLE
IN THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A
MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT AND MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE WE
INITIALLY HAD BELOW 10 PERCENT POPS. EVEN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING WITH A THIN LAYER DRY AIR
RESIDING IN THE MID LAYERS AND A PERSISTENT HRRR MODEL SHOWING
MUCH OF THE RAIN DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID AND UPPER
VALLEY THOUGHT A 20 PERCENT FOR THE EVENING SHOULD COVER THIS
PATCH OF RAIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR AROUND 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IS
WHAT WE EXPECT AT THIS TIME. AS THE EARLIER FORECAST HAS STATED
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER BET OF RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY WHERE A DEEPER
LAYER OF MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED AFTER DATA
ARRIVES WITH THE 00Z BALLOON LAUNCH. ZONES AND POINT AND CLICK
UPDATED SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS TEXAS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO FORM TO
THE SOUTHWEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE
CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS AND MAINLY CAMERON COUNTY TOMORROW...SO
HAVE LIMITED POP TOMORROW TO RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE CURRENT
WAVE EJECTS TO THE NORTH LATER TOMORROW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE FURTHER INTO OUR AREA...WITH MINIMAL POP
CHANCE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SERIES OF 500 MB TROUGHS OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER STATES AND
INTO WESTERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 500 MB LOW BECOMES
CUT OFF BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE POOL
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...HOLDING SEAS AROUND 4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE REMAINED MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
FOR METRO SITES SOUTHWARD AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY
LOWERING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOW 50S AND THINK MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THIS RANGE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA BUT LIKELY
JUST KEEP LOW CEILINGS. OVERALL FORECAST IS LOOKING ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE STILL SHOWING CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL
CIGS REMAIN AT MVFR BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP FROM 02-03Z AS
WINDS DECREASE. T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES APART WHICH
SHOULD HELP CEILINGS DECREASE TONIGHT AS RH INCREASES. GFS IS
RATHER PESSIMISTIC AND NAM OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS. HRRR KEEPS CIGS
IFR SO WILL KEEP THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LIFR CIGS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED IF ANY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TO MVFR
LEVELS. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING THE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARDS
SW LA BUT MAY GET ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH/
LOCATION/TIMING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EITHER TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A LOT OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT IS HARD TO PREDICT WITH CONFIDENCE WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL END UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND FURTHER EASTWARD FORECAST
CARRIED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. OUR FORECAST WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT INLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST...WE WON`T SEE MUCH RAIN. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS
UP FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE RAIN THAN IS
CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST. HOPEFULLY WE SEE SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
SOON. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 42
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW (N TO NE) TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WED AFT THROUGH THURS A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE
POSITION/TIMING OF THIS LOW. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLN WHICH
IS SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISO TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED
THROUGH THU AM. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT SUPPORTS SCEC WINDS MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WED NIGHT/THU AM. A
PACIFIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE COAST
SATURDAY BUT NW WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY/CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. 33
CLIMATE...
FOR MARCH 1-9...
CLL HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.3 DEGREES WHICH IS 11.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...CLL HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 4.00 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.17 INCHES).
IAH HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 53.4 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...IAH HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.83 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.41 INCHES).
HOU HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 55.7 DEGREES WHICH IS 5.4 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...HOU HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.53 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.20 INCHES).
GLS HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 54.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.2 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...GLS HAS RECORDED 1.60 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
IS 0.56 INCHES BELOW NORMAL (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.16 INCHES).
42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
SEEING A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFT. THINK ALL SITES
WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR THIS AFT. SHOULD SEE IFR
CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVE. LIFR CEILINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW...OPTED TO STAY IFR AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE
SOME INLAND MVFR BR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS MID-DAY WED.
RAIN CHANCE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST JUST AFTER THE TAF PD.
33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 68 51 69 50 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 65 54 70 52 / 10 10 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 53 62 56 65 55 / 10 20 40 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
929 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY...AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AS A LEE SIDE WEDGE. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA FIRST AS INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DATA HELD ANY PRECIPITATION
OUT OF ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH
12Z/8AM.
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL START ENTERING THE FAR
SOUTHWEST POTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THROUGH THE DAY...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL INITIALLY SUPPRESS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND. BY NOON...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM LEWISBURG WV TO DANVILLE VA WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NOT
HAVE RECEIVED ANY RAIN YET. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE TIME
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THIS LINE...SO
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY WILL HAVE RECEIVED
SOME RAIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLEST ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 40S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WET FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN BREEZY AND DRY FOR THE
SECOND HALF.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL PUT OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A MILD
DAY FOR SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...THIS AREA OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...FROM OHIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN CULMINATING IN AN HOUR OR TWO
PERIOD OF RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...THE RAIN THREAT
WILL THEN COME TO AN END.
MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
FOR THIS EVENT. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE
INCH /1.00/ OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA.
BY SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...YIELDING BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ROUGHLY 15Z/11AM FRIDAY...LIGHT
RAIN WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE ARRIVAL TIME LOOKED THE FASTEST ON THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WAS
A LITTLE SLOWER ON NAM...ECMWF AND HIRESW-ARW. AFTER 18Z/2PM...
MODELS SOLUTION BECOME FAIRLY CLOSE TO PLACEMENT OF RAIN.
THROUGH 18Z/2PM FRIDAY...CIGS FOR THE MOST PART ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE LOW END VFR COINCIDENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY OF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST. VSBYS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z/2PM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CEILING TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH THE RAIN.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS WORSENING FIRST BETWEEN KBLF-KLWB.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IN
THE EAST.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH
/1.00/ OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA. A HALF INCH OF RAIN
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS OR STREAMS.
HOWEVER...AN INCH OF RAIN MAY CAUSE STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THE
GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES TO APPROACH ACTION STAGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO WAS OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
AND GUSTY QUITE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE/CIRRUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...TEMPERING WARMING AND HIGHS A BIT. STILL
PLENTY WARM FOR MARCH 12...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS SOME 15F TO
25F ABOVE NORMAL.
12.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT FOR GFS AND ITS ABOUT 5F
HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS FROM EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN TO MO.
SOLUTIONS OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES TONIGHT...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI/FRI
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING/PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEEK
LOOKS TO END WITH DRY/QUIET WEATHER. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT
IN STORE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST 925MB AIR OVER THE FCST AREA AT 12Z FRI. LOWS TONIGHT
CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI
TO NEAR KLSE AND KDMX AT 18Z FRI...THEN WELL EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA BY 00Z SAT. STRONGER OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE
FRONT A BIT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AT LEAST 925MB WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI. FRI TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...AS WARM OR WARMER
THAN TODAY WITH THE WARM START AND DEEPER MIXING WITH 925MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER
IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +3C TO -2C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS 5-
10KTS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED MOST LOCATIONS...AND FRI
NIGHT LOWS MOSTLY AT/ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. COLUMN QUITE DRY THRU
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME POST FRONTAL LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS
BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT AND FAVORED
WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN SUN...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
12.12Z REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TREND OF A RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT/SAT NIGHT. DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES. REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
RIDGING TO BUILD/AMPLIFY ALONG THE PAC COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS CAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH MUCH OF THE
IMPACT OF THIS WAVE ON THE AREA BEYOND SUN NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT PERIOD REMAINS GOOD.
COOLER CANADIAN SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT/
SAT NIGHT. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALSO SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUNDINGS AND TIME-
HGT X-SECTIONS SHOW A GENERALLY DRY COLUMN OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT
NIGHT FOR CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SAT LOOKING TO BE A DAY SIMILAR
TO WED...WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. COOLER
NIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA SUN ON BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. 925MB TEMPS
PROGGED BACK IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE BY 00Z MON WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AT LEAST 925MB SUN AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 500MB FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT...MUCH LIKE TODAY. GIVEN
THE CLOUD POTENTIAL AND COLD GROUND...MIXED LAYER MAY BE SHALLOWER
OR NOT FULLY MIX SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME GRADIENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SUN NIGHT WITH WARMEST OF THE 925MB AIR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT OVER THE AREA AT 12Z MON. GENERALLY USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MON AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED NIGHT/THU.
12.00Z/12.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
MON...FOR RIDGING TO BE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAN AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. RIDGING REMAINS OVER WESTERN NOAM TUE WHILE TROUGHING DEEPENS
INTO EASTERN NOAM...LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THRU THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TOWARD THE REGION WED/THU...BUT STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF AK QUICKLY REBUILDS THE WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU IT. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
FOR A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT BELOW AVERAGE WITH
ANY SHORTWAVE DETAILS/PRECIP CHANCES.
SHORTWAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES QUICKLY MANIFEST THEMSELVES ON
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION MONDAY.
PLENTY OF BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ON THIS FRONTAL
TIMING. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE FRONT MOVING THRU THE
FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAY YET BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SMALL -RA ACROSS THE
NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA MON REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER MILD/WARM
DAY MON WITH THE AREA LOOKING TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MUCH OF THE
DAY. CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS SPREAD IN FOR MON NIGHT
INTO WED...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL. WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER NOW...LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED LOOKING TO
REMAIN ABOVE THE MID MARCH NORMALS. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THRU THE
WESTERN NOAM RIDGING BY LATER WED AND THU. 12.12Z GFS WOULD SPREAD A
MAINLY -RA CHANCE INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU WHILE 12.12Z ECMWF
BUILDS CAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SMALL MAINLY -RA
CHANCE ON THU...PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...OKAY FOR NOW. SIDED WITH
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON NIGHT-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
NEBRASKA WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO KEEP
THE SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE 12.18Z NAM BUFKIT SHOWING THE WINDS AROUND
2K FEET INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS OR SO...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE
OF WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. THE 12.21Z RAP IS STRONGER WITH THESE
WINDS INCREASING THEM TO OVER 50 KNOTS AT KRST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RAP MAY HAVE A BIAS OF BEING A LITTLE STRONG WITH THE
WINDS...SO WILL MONITOR TRENDS FROM AREA RADAR VWP/S THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT KRST BUT NOT UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT
KLSE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE ARE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN BRISK AND WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT. ANY CONCERN WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS AND IF DEW POINTS DROP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MIXED SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...MIN RH/S
COULD DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE...MORE 25-30 PERCENT IF DEW
POINTS END UP AROUND 30F. THIS PLUS SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AND DRYING FINE FUELS RAISES THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUN
AFTERNOON. IF MIXING/DRYING ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP TO THE UPPER 20S. RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
SATURATION AT THE SURFACE. I ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW COVER REMAINING. THIS IS MAINLY WHERE THERE
WAS FOG THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS OFF THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MASS
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. 925MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE 7 TO
9 DEG C ON THURSDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE BULK OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SFC LOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 10-12C
RANGE...SUGGESTING LOW TO MID 60S AT THE SURFACE. BIGGEST ISSUE IS
IF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CHILLY
LAKE AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WITH FORECAST WINDS OF ABOUT 10
KNOTS...DECIDED IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE AWAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MORE ALONG SHORE WINDS
BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM IN THE FAR
EAST AS IT MIGHT END UP BEING.
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. EVEN SO...IT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS
TIME PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS FRONT...PUTTING A QUESTION
MARK ON MONDAY TEMPS. THE CANADIAN REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND
WARMEST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO 50. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SLOWED BACK DOWN A
BIT...SO DID NOT CUT TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SYSTEM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
UNDER A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...THOUGH LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE MVFR OR IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION...MARQUARDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE INFLUX
OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
PWAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE MID
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
RETAINED FOR TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL
WEAKEN AND EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IN EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5...AND PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON SATURDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER AREAS SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
SATURDAY WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DECREASING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE WEDGE RETREATS SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WE KEPT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWN-SLOPING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO
NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP
GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
248 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE RIDES OVER A DEVELOPING WEDGE. WITH THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY RAIN CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE
WILL COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NE...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT PATCHY AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES BETTER PRECIP
COVERAGE TO OUR W/SW WHERE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RESIDES.
UPPER IMPULSE TO MOVE TO THE NE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST GRADUALLY
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY W
FA/CSRA...SPREADING E/NE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEDGE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN/DEVELOP AS LIGHT RAIN
COMMENCES. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DID RAISE THEM A DEGREE
OR TWO AND ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THEY ARE
RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST. TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BLANKET THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN CONTINUING ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TO BE AROUND
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS. ON SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH...HOWEVER
AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL. CONDITIONS
WILL BEING IMPROVING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WED/THU
WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO
NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP
GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE
IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH
SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY
TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN
DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS
AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER
HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT
COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW MVFR VSBYS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. AFT SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
230 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A CONVOLUTED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SKIRT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION CREEPING NORTHWARD
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AND POPS WILL CONTINUE
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN. THE NEXT QUESTION WAS
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE HRRR IS WARMER THAN THIS, BUT DECIDED NOT
TO USE THIS SINCE WE AREN`T IN A DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN (IN FACT, IT`S
UPSLOPE). THERE ALSO COULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD
SLIGHTLY IMPACT THE DIURNAL MAX. IN RELATED NEWS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER AFTERNOON RH`S MINIMUMS. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST THE FAVOR THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS
GIVEN THAT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE 925MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
WARMING TREND CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY BASED ON THE
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT, AND BY 00Z TUESDAY THIS AXIS OF WARM
AIR IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON
THESE 00Z MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS SMALL GIVEN THAT THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN THAT GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOWING THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL 12C TO 18C BETWEEN 00Z
TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF RANGED FROM 12C TO 16C. AT THIS TIME WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT, HOWEVER IF THE LATEST COOLING
TREND REMAINS UNCHANGED THEN HIGHS MAY END UP BEING 10F TO 15F
COOLER.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON WHICH MODEL IS
MORE CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN IS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE
LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS
DO AGREE THAT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NO FURTHER REDUCTIONS OF CIG IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS INCREASE 20-30 KT OUT OF THE NNE TODAY AS THERE
WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BACK TO 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 38 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 69 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 66 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 70 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 71 37 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
P28 72 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE LOWER CIGS AND
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS. DID ALSO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
THROUGH DAWN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
GUIDANCE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
JUST SENT OUT AND UPDATED SET OF ZONES. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...NAM12...HRRR...AND GFS...ALL HAS PUSHED PRECIPITATION ONSET
BACK BY A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WHICH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND BACK OFF ON
PRECIP ONSET ACROSS OUR AREA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEATHER
TYPE...QPF...HOURLY POP AND POP12. ALSO INCREASED TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN HOURLY TEMPS AND THE LATER ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY UNDER
PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. MOISTURE HAS ALSO
BEEN INCREASING DUE TO STRONG LOW-TO-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PULLING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND ONSET
OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE TO BE AROUND
12Z FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS...SAVE
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS...ARE STILL PAINTING THE HIGHEST QPF
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES AND POINTS TO
OUR WEST. THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN WITH HIGH QPF ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE AND IS AN OBVIOUS OUTLIER...SO PUT LESS TRUST INTO
THIS MODEL.
AS FAR AS FLOODING CONCERNS...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LATER ONSET OF
THE PRECIP...IT GIVES EASTERN KY MORE TIME TO DRY OUT.
HIGHEST QPF IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE WILL BE OVER OUR NW
CWA...WITH 1-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE
GROUND...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL TURN INTO RUNOFF...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG
CREEKS AND RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH. THEREFORE A
FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING RUNNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN ACTIVE AND
MOIST PATTERN IN PLACE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A POTENT
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH ONGOING RAINFALL
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO THIS...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
THOUGH WITH RAINFALL SPREAD OUT OVER A LONGER DURATION...WILL SEE
A LESSER THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS
INHERITED FROM THE SUPER BLEND. AFTERWARD...THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING IN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SINCE THE SUPER BLEND HAD THIS FOR TUESDAY. AFTER THIS
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS AND WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS ID LOW. OTHERWISE...WARM AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE HERE TO STAY AS THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE LOWER CIGS AND
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER TRENDS WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. MOST OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. IN ITS WAKE IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IN
MANTIOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOST OF THESE ARE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AIMED FOR FAR NE ND/NW MN. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH MOVED SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASK LAST EVENING AND EXTEND THROUGH MINOT TO DEVILS
LAKE. RAP/HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS AND
DO HAVE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD FARGO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS THEY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. THEN RAP MODEL
KEEPS A POCKET OF 925 MB MOISTURE IN CNTRL ND REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN BEFORE BREAKING UP. EXTEND OF LOW CLOUDS AND TIMING OF
DISSIPATING KEY IN TEMP FCST TODAY. ATTM WILL PLAY WITH THE IDEA
OF LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND GENERAL
CLEARING OR INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTN. THUS TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
AS ANTICIPATED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THAT AREA. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA MIXED
SUNSHINE AND SOME CLOUDS...SLIGHT CHC FOR A LITTLE -SN OR -RA IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT
925 MB COOL TO 0C BY 18Z BUT THEN START TO RISE THIS AFTN AS WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. NET RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY BY 6-10 DEGREES.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN ERN ND IN
THE AFTN. ALSO WARMER AIR RETURNS AS HIGHS REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
SAT NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING MANY AREAS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTN-EVE. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
THEN WEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AFTN AS IT MOVES SOUTH. VERY
WARM AIR AT 850/925 MB...ESP SE ND WHERE 925 MB TEMPS REACHES THE
MID TEENS (C). EXPECT TO SEE A BUMP IN TEMPS AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND FOLLOW ALONG WITH NAM AND ECMWF SFC
TEMP GUIDANCE IN SHOWING 70-72 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS FARGO AND SE ND
WITH 60S IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THAT COULD
MEAN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD OCCUR IF FULL SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE SPREADING EAST POST FRONTAL
OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NAM IS DRIEST OF ALL MODELS...GFS ISNT
IMPRESSIVE EITHER AND MORE SOUTHERN ND IMPACTS. ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER AND MORE NRN FCST AREA IMPACTS. NET RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
A LOW POP FOR -RA AND THEN -RA/-SN SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A 150-160 KT STRAIGHT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER ON MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SURGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY...AND FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS WILL ONLY COOL
THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE...WARMEST SOUTH.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE/WED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REVERTING BACK TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME 50S...AIDED BY LACK OF SNOW COVER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL BY THURSDAY WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ST MOVING INTO FAR NW ATTM ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VSBY IN BR.
CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS LIMIT MAJORITY OF LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY
TO DVL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING DURING THE AM. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS DID ADD SOME MVFR CIGS
OVER REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN. MOST AREAS TO
BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0
HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1136 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE THRU 14/06Z. EXPECT
WIDELY SCT SHWRS TO CONTINUE THRU 13/09Z...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
VCSH UNTIL THEN. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING PREDOMINATE RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 13/09Z. WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR THRU 13/09Z TO PREDOMIANTE
MVFR...AND THEN IFR CEILINGS...THRU 14/06Z. LIGHT RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINATE MVFR VSBYS THRU 14/06Z ALSO. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL
CONTINUES AT CKV BETWEEN 14/10Z-14/14Z PER EXPECTED DEEPEST MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED THRU
14/06Z ALSO AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW...WITH GUSTS OF 18KTS-20KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WET WX PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE THRU 13/24Z. DO NOT EXPECT
PREDOMINATE RAIN UNTIL AROUND 13/06Z TAF SITES...AND WITH SCT RAIN SHWRS
EXPECTED UNTIL THEN...WILL MENTION VCSH. EXPECT NIMBO-STRATUS VFR CEILINGS
TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR/ALONG WITH VSBYS...BY 13/06Z. THE GENERAL TREND
OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THRU 13/24Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOST ENHANCED CKV BETWEEN 13/09Z-13/14Z PER
EXPECTED DEEPEST MOISTURE POOLING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED
THRU 13/24Z ALSO AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE FROM SW...WITH GUSTS OF
18KTS-20KTS POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AS
WELL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
FIELDS ARE INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS NW ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE INFLECTION POINT REACHES
OUR AREA...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL SCALE DOWN THE PRE MIDNIGHT WEATHER
GRIDS TO INCLUDE LIKELY AND CHC LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF THE
WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL LEVEL PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...AT MID-AFTERNOON IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE MILD
OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES AT MANY POINTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON
RADAR, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-24.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY RAINY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
SINCE A FINAL SHOT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ENDING TIME OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MID-
STATE. HOWEVER, BEFORE MAKING ANY SUCH CHANGE, WOULD LIKE TO GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT NEW DATA TO MORE DEFINITIVELY
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS PRIOR
TO SATURDAY AND WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE
SAME.
RIGHT NOW, EXPECT RAIN TOTALS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY NIGHT TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE
GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BY 12Z FRI, WINDS AT 850MB SHOULD BE
BLOWING AT 35 TO 40 KTS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EAST. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, COULD RECEIVED ANOTHER ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY`S
WEATHER, AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, TO DETERMINE IF WE
NEED TO EXTEND THE END POINT OF OUR FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION,
CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, THAT WILL SEE THE FRONT COME THROUGH
AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY).
LONG TERM...STILL EXPECT A DRY SPELL FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND BRING ALONG ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY--WHICH
WILL BRING US UP TO THE EVE OF THE VERNAL EQUINOX.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>008-023>027-056>061-093>095.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS EVENING
BUT LOWER CIGS ARE JUST BARELY TO THE EAST. SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS
HAVE AFFECTED GKY/DAL BUT NOTHING MORE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH TO THE LOWER CLOUDS
AND THINK THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW A
LOWERING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIGHT AND GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES IN THIS EVENING UPDATE. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
GRIDS OF TEMPS...DP...AND SKY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE
A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THAT LITTLE OF THIS RAIN HAS ARRIVED...YET. WE STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD SOME OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM SERIES STILL WANTS TO EXPAND PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS DO NOT. I WILL
SIDE WITH THE HI-RES HRRR AND DELAY A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE
RAIN INTO OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE
CHARLES...WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
ATHENS LINE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 SATURDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WILL HANDLE THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE NOT GONE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS. 58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 65 53 68 47 / 30 50 30 20 10
WACO, TX 51 71 52 69 47 / 20 20 10 20 10
PARIS, TX 51 63 52 68 48 / 80 80 40 20 10
DENTON, TX 50 64 51 68 44 / 20 40 30 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 63 51 67 46 / 40 50 30 20 10
DALLAS, TX 52 66 53 68 48 / 30 50 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 52 65 52 67 47 / 50 50 30 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 52 67 52 68 49 / 40 40 30 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 50 73 51 70 48 / 10 20 10 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 48 70 50 69 45 / 10 20 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY...AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN NE TN AND WILL SPREAD SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES INTO THE NC MTNS THROUGH 3-4AM. THIS WILL
HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL LOOKS LIKE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL STAY WEST OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MAKING INROADS TO OUR SW CWA BEFORE NOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AS A LEE SIDE WEDGE. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA FIRST AS INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DATA HELD ANY PRECIPITATION
OUT OF ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH
12Z/8AM.
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL START ENTERING THE FAR
SOUTHWEST POTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THROUGH THE DAY...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL INITIALLY SUPPRESS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND. BY NOON...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM LEWISBURG WV TO DANVILLE VA WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NOT
HAVE RECEIVED ANY RAIN YET. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE TIME
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THIS LINE...SO
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY WILL HAVE RECEIVED
SOME RAIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLEST ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 40S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WET FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN BREEZY AND DRY FOR THE
SECOND HALF.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL PUT OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A MILD
DAY FOR SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...THIS AREA OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...FROM OHIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN CULMINATING IN AN HOUR OR TWO
PERIOD OF RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...THE RAIN THREAT
WILL THEN COME TO AN END.
MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
FOR THIS EVENT. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE
INCH /1.00/ OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA.
BY SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...YIELDING BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AIRMASS PRETTY DRY AND THINK FOG THREAT FOR LWB WILL BE TOO LOW SO
REMOVED TEMPO THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS THEN MID CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING SUB VFR CIGS TIL
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM LWB/BLF/BCB SOUTHWEST...REACHING
ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN ABOUT
1-3 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SUB
IFR...WITH WEDGE HOLDING SOME.
SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SE WILL OCCUR AT BLF IN THIS PATTERN
THRU MIDDAY...THEN WHEN RAIN MOVES IN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME.
MODELS SHOWING STRONG LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THIS EVENING AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME TOO FAR
OUT TO ADD TO THE TAFS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH
/1.00/ OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA. A HALF INCH OF RAIN
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS OR STREAMS.
HOWEVER...AN INCH OF RAIN MAY CAUSE STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THE
GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES TO APPROACH ACTION STAGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
722 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE INFLUX
OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
PWAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
RETAINED FOR TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL
WEAKEN AND EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5...AND PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT SATURDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER AREAS SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECREASING
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE WEDGE RETREATS SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WE KEPT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WARM
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWN-SLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY
BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO
NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP
GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE
IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH
SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY
TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN
DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS
AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER
HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT
COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 18Z/13. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/14.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
555 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A CONVOLUTED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SKIRT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION CREEPING NORTHWARD
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AND POPS WILL CONTINUE
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN. THE NEXT QUESTION WAS
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE HRRR IS WARMER THAN THIS, BUT DECIDED NOT
TO USE THIS SINCE WE AREN`T IN A DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN (IN FACT, IT`S
UPSLOPE). THERE ALSO COULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD
SLIGHTLY IMPACT THE DIURNAL MAX. IN RELATED NEWS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER AFTERNOON RH`S MINIMUMS. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST THE FAVOR THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS
GIVEN THAT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE 925MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
WARMING TREND CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY BASED ON THE
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT, AND BY 00Z TUESDAY THIS AXIS OF WARM
AIR IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON
THESE 00Z MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS SMALL GIVEN THAT THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN THAT GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOWING THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL 12C TO 18C BETWEEN 00Z
TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF RANGED FROM 12C TO 16C. AT THIS TIME WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT, HOWEVER IF THE LATEST COOLING
TREND REMAINS UNCHANGED THEN HIGHS MAY END UP BEING 10F TO 15F
COOLER.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON WHICH MODEL IS
MORE CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN IS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE
LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS
DO AGREE THAT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NO FURTHER REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
20-30 KT OUT OF THE NNE TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DECREASE 10-18 KT THIS
EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BACK TO 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 38 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 69 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 66 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 70 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 71 37 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
P28 72 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS
LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS
AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR
VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE
POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF
THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT
THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS
SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS
HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS
AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR
VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE
POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF
THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT
THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS
SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS
HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY... AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY
SUNDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM FRIDAY...
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT IN THE CWA... WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. RETURNS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA DON`T SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND
PER OBSERVATIONS... DUE TO DRY LOWER LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 18Z... AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE...
NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD. MID TO UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
BE INFLUENCED BY TWO SURFACE LOWS...THE FIRST OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND A SECOND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. THIS INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HELP TO
QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE AS IT PUSHES THE RETREATING
HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS HAPPENS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OUT TO SEA...THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE WILL QUICKLY BE BLOWN OUT AND IN
ITS PLACE A SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN WEST OF THE AREA WILL
BE REFOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO EASTERN NC. THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BUT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND NEW FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO CREEP IN LATER
IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED AND BULK SHEAR VALUES PERSIST ABOVE 40
KTS. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AFTER 18Z. EVEN BACK
INTO THE TRIAD AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD END EVERYWHERE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: A STRONG COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THROUGH THE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH THE
PASSAGE OF SHEARED VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY... PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL THOUGH... EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER... AS HAD THE OP GFS UNTIL YESTERDAY`S
RUN... SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO 65-72. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD LIGHTENING
SURFACE WINDS... AND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... TEMPS SUN NIGHT
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS OF 37-43.
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA EARLY MON WILL DROP QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH
MON... IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH... AND THIS PUTS NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-70. THE
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR STREAM WAVE CROSSING SRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... WITH WHICH THE GFS IS 6-9 HRS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF (AND THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER). AS A RESULT THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA MON NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS
IT FURTHER NW AND KEEPS NC IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF BASED ON ITS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...
SO WILL RAISE LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S MON NIGHT.
FOR TUE-THU: THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECEDING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE LARGELY FROM THE WEST OR NW... ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH A DEPTH SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TUE/TUE NIGHT... BUT WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH ON TUE FAVORS A MILD DAY
WITH WARM THICKNESSES LINGERING LONGER... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED...
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND BUILDS INTO NC.
EXPECT HIGHS WED TO BE BACK DOWN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE FRONT
SHIFTING BACK INTO WRN/SRN NC TO THE N/NE EARLY THU... ALTHOUGH
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP REGARDING THE SURFACE HIGH AS
WELL AS WHICH STREAM WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. THE MORE SOUTHERN-STREAM
FOCUSED GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
THU BEFORE MOVING IT OFFSHORE THU EVENING... CAUSING THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH INCREASING OVERRUNNING
WITH TIME... WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
POLAR STREAM IS MUCH FASTER AS IT TAKES A WEAKER HIGH OFFSHORE AS
EARLY AS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THU. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... WILL FOLLOW A CLIMO-
BASED APPROACH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE SRN/WRN CWA WED
NIGHT/THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY
DEWPOINTS AND RAP SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE JUST HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS
ARE. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO EAT AWAY AT
THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY 18Z OR SO...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TRIAD SITES...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHERS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOWING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
DECLINE WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY DEGRADING THROUGH MVFR
AFTER 00Z TO AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BACK TO VFR LEVELS AND REMAIN THERE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...RAH/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
651 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY... AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY
SUNDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
QUITE A FEW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
FACTOR FOR THIS IS THAT MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A GREAT JOB OF
ANTICIPATING HOW DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS HAS BEEN. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
PLACES. SYNOPTICALLY THE CURRENT 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE TRI-STATE
NY/NJ/CT AREA IS IN A FABULOUS LOCATION FOR A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT
AND WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE EASTERLY WINDS OVER US RIGHT NOW BUT THE
WEDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAKE OVER AND PRODUCE PRECIPITATION BUT A LOT OF THAT WILL EVAPORATE
INTO THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AS VIRGA BEFORE EVER REACHING THE
GROUND. THIS COULD PREVENT THE WEDGE FROM EVER REALLY LOCKING IN AND
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL BE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY CREATING MORE OF AN IN-SITU DAMMING SETUP.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY WIN THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP TO
HIGHER VALUES THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED WITH LOW 50S IN THE TRIAD
TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL BE STEADY BUT LIGHT AND QPF
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
BE INFLUENCED BY TWO SURFACE LOWS...THE FIRST OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND A SECOND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. THIS INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HELP TO
QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE AS IT PUSHES THE RETREATING
HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS HAPPENS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OUT TO SEA...THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE WILL QUICKLY BE BLOWN OUT AND IN
ITS PLACE A SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN WEST OF THE AREA WILL
BE REFOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO EASTERN NC. THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BUT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND NEW FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO CREEP IN LATER
IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED AND BULK SHEAR VALUES PERSIST ABOVE 40
KTS. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AFTER 18Z. EVEN BACK
INTO THE TRIAD AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD END EVERYWHERE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: A STRONG COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THROUGH THE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH THE
PASSAGE OF SHEARED VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY... PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL THOUGH... EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER... AS HAD THE OP GFS UNTIL YESTERDAY`S
RUN... SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO 65-72. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD LIGHTENING
SURFACE WINDS... AND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... TEMPS SUN NIGHT
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS OF 37-43.
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA EARLY MON WILL DROP QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH
MON... IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH... AND THIS PUTS NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-70. THE
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR STREAM WAVE CROSSING SRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... WITH WHICH THE GFS IS 6-9 HRS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF (AND THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER). AS A RESULT THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA MON NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS
IT FURTHER NW AND KEEPS NC IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF BASED ON ITS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...
SO WILL RAISE LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S MON NIGHT.
FOR TUE-THU: THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECEDING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE LARGELY FROM THE WEST OR NW... ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH A DEPTH SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TUE/TUE NIGHT... BUT WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH ON TUE FAVORS A MILD DAY
WITH WARM THICKNESSES LINGERING LONGER... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED...
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND BUILDS INTO NC.
EXPECT HIGHS WED TO BE BACK DOWN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE FRONT
SHIFTING BACK INTO WRN/SRN NC TO THE N/NE EARLY THU... ALTHOUGH
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP REGARDING THE SURFACE HIGH AS
WELL AS WHICH STREAM WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. THE MORE SOUTHERN-STREAM
FOCUSED GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
THU BEFORE MOVING IT OFFSHORE THU EVENING... CAUSING THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH INCREASING OVERRUNNING
WITH TIME... WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
POLAR STREAM IS MUCH FASTER AS IT TAKES A WEAKER HIGH OFFSHORE AS
EARLY AS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THU. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... WILL FOLLOW A CLIMO-
BASED APPROACH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE SRN/WRN CWA WED
NIGHT/THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY
DEWPOINTS AND RAP SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE JUST HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS
ARE. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO EAT AWAY AT
THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY 18Z OR SO...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TRIAD SITES...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHERS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOWING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
DECLINE WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY DEGRADING THROUGH MVFR
AFTER 00Z TO AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BACK TO VFR LEVELS AND REMAIN THERE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TWEAKED SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS MORNING AS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN ND WERE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. WILL CHECK OVER WINDS BEFORE
SENDING OUT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER TRENDS WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. MOST OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. IN ITS WAKE IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IN
MANTIOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOST OF THESE ARE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AIMED FOR FAR NE ND/NW MN. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH MOVED SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASK LAST EVENING AND EXTEND THROUGH MINOT TO DEVILS
LAKE. RAP/HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS AND
DO HAVE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD FARGO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS THEY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. THEN RAP MODEL
KEEPS A POCKET OF 925 MB MOISTURE IN CNTRL ND REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN BEFORE BREAKING UP. EXTEND OF LOW CLOUDS AND TIMING OF
DISSIPATING KEY IN TEMP FCST TODAY. ATTM WILL PLAY WITH THE IDEA
OF LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND GENERAL
CLEARING OR INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTN. THUS TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
AS ANTICIPATED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THAT AREA. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA MIXED
SUNSHINE AND SOME CLOUDS...SLIGHT CHC FOR A LITTLE -SN OR -RA IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT
925 MB COOL TO 0C BY 18Z BUT THEN START TO RISE THIS AFTN AS WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. NET RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY BY 6-10 DEGREES.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN ERN ND IN
THE AFTN. ALSO WARMER AIR RETURNS AS HIGHS REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
SAT NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING MANY AREAS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTN-EVE. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
THEN WEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AFTN AS IT MOVES SOUTH. VERY
WARM AIR AT 850/925 MB...ESP SE ND WHERE 925 MB TEMPS REACHES THE
MID TEENS (C). EXPECT TO SEE A BUMP IN TEMPS AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND FOLLOW ALONG WITH NAM AND ECMWF SFC
TEMP GUIDANCE IN SHOWING 70-72 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS FARGO AND SE ND
WITH 60S IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THAT COULD
MEAN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD OCCUR IF FULL SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE SPREADING EAST POST FRONTAL
OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NAM IS DRIEST OF ALL MODELS...GFS ISNT
IMPRESSIVE EITHER AND MORE SOUTHERN ND IMPACTS. ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER AND MORE NRN FCST AREA IMPACTS. NET RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
A LOW POP FOR -RA AND THEN -RA/-SN SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A 150-160 KT STRAIGHT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER ON MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SURGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY...AND FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS WILL ONLY COOL
THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE...WARMEST SOUTH.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE/WED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REVERTING BACK TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME 50S...AIDED BY LACK OF SNOW COVER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL BY THURSDAY WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ST MOVING INTO FAR NW ATTM ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VSBY IN BR.
CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS LIMIT MAJORITY OF LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY
TO DVL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING DURING THE AM. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS DID ADD SOME MVFR CIGS
OVER REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN. MOST AREAS TO
BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS
THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO
HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE
IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC
HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX
OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING
TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH
THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE
REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE
SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS AT KISN IMPROVING TO VFR
BY 16-17 UTC. FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER AT KMOT AND KJMS LONGER
INTO THE 18-19 UTC TIME FRAME. VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE 12 UTC TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS
THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO
HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE
IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC
HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX
OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING
TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH
THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE
REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE
SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS AT KISN AND KJMS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY 16-17 UTC. FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER AT KMOT LONGER
INTO THE 18-19 UTC TIME FRAME. VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE 12 UTC TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR
CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK
THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A
TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER
CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE
FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0
HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1016 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF RAIN STARTING TODAY AND LASTING INTO LATE SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE OVERSPREADING OUR ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS PUSHES EAST...AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST GULF COAST ADVANCES INTO ARKANSAS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM
THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT AREAS OF RAINFALL VERY
WELL. ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE SCATTERED...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE
TO REACH THE SURFACE.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL STILL SEE
RAIN OFF AND ON...SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES CATEGORICAL. HIGHER FLUX OF
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL BE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD
FRONT. WITH RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
ALBEIT WITH WATER LEVELS ON THEIR WAY DOWN...AND TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW PACK...WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO SUMMERS COUNTY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM THOSE OBSERVED
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THE MORNING
RAIN AND LATE DAY SHOWERS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LOWS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY MORNING.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST. PRESSURE RISES AND A BRIEF BUT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RAIN WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS...WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KEEPING IT
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING THEN BRING CIGS TO MVFR IN BLF/BCB/LWB IN
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...REACHING ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME
FRAME
CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO LIFR AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT TRACKING
NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. VSBYS WILL ALSO CREEP TO
IFR AT TIMES. THINK IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT RAIN WILL BE MORE ON
THAN OFF. OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL STAY UNDER 1KFT.
MODELS SHOWING STRONG LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THIS EVENING AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME TOO FAR
OUT TO ADD TO THE TAFS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECASTING AROUND 1" OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS
OF SE WV NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...AND RIVERS STILL RUNNING
UP...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GOING TO EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF SE
WV THRU EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SPECIFICALLY THINKING PLACES ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND MEADOW RIVER WILL SEE THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...THE BLUESTONE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE GIVEN
THE LACK OF SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS SURROUNDING THIS BASIN. BATH
COUNTY VA WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT SOME RISES ON BACK CREEK IN
THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED HERE...SO NO WATCH PLANNED YET.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VERY WARM WEATHER OCCURRED TODAY...WITH SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD
SETTING A DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 89 AT 1230 PM...REPLACING THE OLD
RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1994. SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS WERE 90 OR
91...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. WINDS CONTINUED TO BE MODERATELY
STRONG ON THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH
NOON-100 PM HOURLY GUSTS STILL LOCALLY IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE WITH
FREMONT CANYON WITH A PEAK OF 57 MPH. HRRR SHOWS WINDS DROPPING
GRADUALLY BETWEEN 200 PM AND 500 PM...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 200 PM.
FAIR VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL OCCUR AGAIN...INCLUDING AT
LINDBERGH FIELD AS ITS RECORDS ARE ONLY 83 AND 80 FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING AROUND 18-19 DEG
C...HOTTEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BEING ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER SO-CAL. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLING
TREND...THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY
DUE TO MORE OF A SEA BREEZE. A MARINE LAYER SHOULD BRING SOME
STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE COAST STARTING AROUND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...EVEN WITH THE COOLING. AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION IN SO-CAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
132015Z...FEW CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL...BECOMING SCT-BKN AFTER
14/0600 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THROUGH 14/0000 UTC...NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...ALONG COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND
INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL RESULT IN STG TO LOCALLY SVR
UDDFS/LLWS AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. LLWS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR KCRQ...WHILE GUSTY NE SFC WINDS CONTINUE AT KSNA
AND KONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KTRM AND
KPSP SHOULD GENERALLY BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING AND TURNING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 14/0000 UTC.
&&
.MARINE...
115 PM...SOME NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...RADAR RETURNS ALREADY MOVING IN TO CENTRAL PA AND
NORTHERN MD. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST RAP, HAVE BEGAN POPS
ACROSS THE REGION A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT HOW MUCH
PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND, DEW POINTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING,
ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE HELP OF ON SHORE FLOW.
THEREFORE, DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR VERY
LONG, AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FALL LINE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE RAP AND HRRR ON A START
TIME. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF LAV/MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS
USED ON THE TEMPERATURES AND MOST ELEMENTS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER AS
WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE WARM FRONT INCHES CLOSER.
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS IS ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE TO OCCUR. STILL FREEZING RAIN CAN LEAD
TO SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ADVISORY FROM 06-10Z
SATURDAY. SOME ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWPACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PUNCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
MODELING CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY ON QPF FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC AND SREF FOR QPF
TOTALS IN BOTH PERIODS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER IN
THE DAY. TO KEEP WORDING SIMPLE KEPT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. 925 MB
TEMPS RESPOND NICELY WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY TRY
TO BALANCE THAT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MET/MAV GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO
THE 50`S. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AFTER A RAIN EVENT WINDS DOWN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LATE-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EMERGES OFF
THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM
SECTOR EXITS THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE,
WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH, TAKING A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING DOWN
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTING LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY
QUIET, BUT BREEZY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA AS THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION WITH
RAIN SATURDAY DEPARTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERALL ON
SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MARCH
AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE POCONOS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH THIS FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR REGION INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE OVERALL MIDWEEK PERIOD FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THAT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP TO THE FORECAST
AREA EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. WE
MOSTLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. RAIN COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCLUDING KILG AND KRDG AS EARLY AS 00Z,
BEFORE SPREADING NE. BY 06Z RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME STEADIER WITH
SOME INTERVALS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD LOWER
CEILINGS FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LIFR FROM
12-15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AFTER
18Z SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A
HOUR OR TWO GOING FORWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS,
GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT WAVEHIGHTS AT FIVE FOOT OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE COLD WATER TEMPS AND WAVEWATCH BIASES WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUPS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA ATTM. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, PERHAPS MORE
WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY MARGINALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. THEN, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INCOMING DATA TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS.
AS CONDITIONS LOOKED MARGINAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA HEADLINES, AS GUIDANCE
CAN TEND TO OVER-DO THE SEAS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST INTO LATE-DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWING A QUICK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AND THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE HSA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA
AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED.
WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE MILLSTONE
AND RANCOCAS.
IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND
PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS
IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE RAP AND HRRR ON A START TIME. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. A BLEND
OF LAV/MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS USED ON THE TEMPERATURES AND MOST
ELEMENTS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE
WARM FRONT INCHES CLOSER.
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS IS ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE TO OCCUR. STILL FREEZING RAIN CAN LEAD
TO SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ADVISORY FROM 06-10Z
SATURDAY. SOME ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWPACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PUNCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
MODELING CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY ON QPF FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC AND SREF FOR QPF
TOTALS IN BOTH PERIODS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER IN
THE DAY. TO KEEP WORDING SIMPLE KEPT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. 925 MB
TEMPS RESPOND NICELY WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY TRY
TO BALANCE THAT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MET/MAV GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO
THE 50`S. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AFTER A RAIN EVENT WINDS DOWN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LATE-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EMERGES OFF
THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM
SECTOR EXITS THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE,
WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH, TAKING A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING DOWN
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTING LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY
QUIET, BUT BREEZY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA AS THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION WITH
RAIN SATURDAY DEPARTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERALL ON
SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MARCH
AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE POCONOS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH THIS FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR REGION INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE OVERALL MIDWEEK PERIOD FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THAT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP TO THE FORECAST
AREA EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. WE
MOSTLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. BY 09Z RAIN LOOKS TO
BECOME STEADIER WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
LIFR FROM 12-15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A HOUR
OR TWO GOING FORWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS,
GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT WAVEHIGHTS AT FIVE FOOT OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE COLD WATER TEMPS AND WAVEWATCH BIASES WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUPS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA ATTM. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, PERHAPS MORE
WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY MARGINALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. THEN, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INCOMING DATA TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS.
AS CONDITIONS LOOKED MARGINAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA HEADLINES, AS GUIDANCE
CAN TEND TO OVER-DO THE SEAS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST INTO LATE-DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWING A QUICK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AND THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE HSA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA
AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED.
WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE MILLSTONE
AND RANCOCAS.
IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND
PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS
IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BRIEFLY INTO OUR REGION MONDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12:30 PM UPDATE: LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
DRY AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE AND WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED BY 1-2 DEGREES
TODAY. THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SLOW TO BRING INTO THE REGION, LIKELY
DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO THIS UPDATE PUSHES THE INTRODUCTION OF
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST TO LATER THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NOON THEN INCREASING AND SLOWLY LOWERING
CIRRUS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON AND A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER INLAND THAN THURSDAY AND CERTAINLY MUCH
COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE CHILLING SEABREEZES FROM THE RECENTLY
DEICED OCEAN WATERS DROPS AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. SSTS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND EARLY TODAY HAS LIMITED PREDAWN RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PRIMARILY NW NJ AND NE PA (N OF I-78). THIS WIND WILL BECOME
S-SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 11 PM AND 5
AM. RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES NEAR AND AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA/SE PA AND FAR SW NJ AS A WLY 7H JET OF 55KT DEVELOPS BY
12Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA WITH A WSW 50 KT JET NOSED INTO THE
DELMARVA AND A SW 925MB JET OF 45-50 KT ALSO NOSED INTO THE
DELMARVA. SO ITS A DECENT INSTABILITY BURST BUT NO THUNDER. A SMALL
CHC OF ICING VCNTY HIGH POINT NJ AND KMPO AT THE ONSET IN THE 2A-5A
TIME FRAME AND IN THE HWO ONLY. THE SFC WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY SHOULD BE STRETCHED FROM NEAR KSBY TO NEAR KDCA TO NEAR
KEKN (FAR S DE TO WASHINGTON DC AND NRN W.VA). NEAR 100 POP BY 10Z
/13. SOME WARMER DEWPOINT CONTACT DEVELOPED DENSE FOG ON COLDER
ELEVATED SFC`S NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY (1/4 MI POCONOS WITH 1-2 MI
FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE). LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT OUT MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD
AMPLIFY SOME INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN TENDS TO
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS IS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
FOR SATURDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS FEATURE AND ALSO A SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
HELP PULL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE SURGE
LOOKS TO PEAK DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE THE COMBINED LIFT CAN
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH WAA, THE THERMAL PROFILE IS ANTICIPATED TO NOT SUPPORT
SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET UP NORTH. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE POCONOS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY EARLY SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER, WAA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HALT OR REVERSE THE EARLIER RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE,
WE CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING AND A RAIN EVENT
ACROSS THE CWA.
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MOST NOTABLE WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.
A SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR WEST SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EAST
AT NIGHT, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
INITIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM SECTOR MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY /ESPECIALLY FROM THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST/. THE SHOWERS THEN END IN
THE EVENING AS SOME DRYING WORKS IN. OVERALL, THE TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA WITH NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY, THEN THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST, COLDER AIR ALOFT COMBINED
WITH ENOUGH HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS LIKE LESS OF A CHC NOW AS
THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT TRACKS FARTHER TO OUR NORTH. WE MAINTAINED
SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR NOW. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR
AREA. AS SOME COOLING TAKES PLACE, WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR AWHILE AND THEREFORE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. WE
DID BOOST THE WINDS SOME FOR A TIME SUNDAY. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS SOME MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST AND THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
COOLING, AND THE FASTER FLOW WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A QUICK MOVER WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE, HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT.
FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO START TUESDAY, THEN WE ARE LEFT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, HOWEVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EAST AND OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD RESULT IN
A COLDER REGIME DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 25000. LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...SCT CIRRUS AOA 25000 FT LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT NE WIND BECOMING S-
SE WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR CIGS TO START BECOMING IFR OR LIFR IN RAIN/STRATUS/FOG
EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT WIND. PLS SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.
SLIGHTEST CHC OF A FEW ICE PELLETS AT THE START VCNTY KRDG AND KABE
AROUND 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME FOG, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR CEILING AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
10 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS AOB 4 FT. N WIND 10-15
KT BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT
THE WIND MAINLY STAYS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER ON SUNDAY,
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY OCCUR NEARSHORE ALTHOUGH LESS MIXING MAY
RESULT OVER THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROBABLY STILL MILD
ENOUGH. THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY WILL IMPACT
HOW QUICKLY THE SEAS BUILD. AS OF NOW, KEPT IT MARGINAL AND
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH BETTER MIXING, THEREFORE GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND HELPING TO
DRAW UP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE, THE FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY FROM
ABOUT 700 MB ON UP. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOWER QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, PLUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE
AIMED MORE TOWARD THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY. OVERALL, THE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE
THE 6-HOUR FFG HAS SOME SPOTS /BASICALLY ALONG EITHER SIDE OF
INTERSTATE 95/ AROUND OR UNDER AN INCH, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING TIMES
OF HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW SMALLER FAST RESPONDING STREAMS
GETTING TO MINOR FLOOD, THE THREAT LOOKS LOCALIZED ENOUGH AND
THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ATTM /NOTE, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ATTM/.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
330 PM CDT
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE
UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP
SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE
BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF
I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP
UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING
TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE
REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT
CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK
IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT
WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING
INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIORT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING WITH COLD
FRONT AND LASING THROUGH TOMORROW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* LOW IN IFR CIGS REACHING ORD THIS EVENING...MEDIUM-LOW ON
REACHING MDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
331 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
330 PM CDT
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE
UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP
SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE
BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF
I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP
UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING
TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE
REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT
CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK
IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT
WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING
INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
* SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING
TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
225 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
313 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP/SKY TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY.
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS SOLID MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OVER MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH
LATEST IR IMAGERY DEPICTING A RATHER DENSE CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE.
THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ASSOCIATED RAIN STEADILY APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL REACH THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS PRECIP WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS IN THIS
LOCATION BUT DID BRING IN THEM IN EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THE BULK OF ANY PREVAILING RAIN TODAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...DID KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY SHORTER DURATION RAIN. FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA...PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE WAY FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WITH 60S STILL APPEARING
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE
50S.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT...WHILE THE FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP STEER A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
THIS FRONT...BUT WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONGWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN
FOR THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH SFC RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD SAT AND
EXPANDING SUN. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
50S...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TURNING AN AFTN
LAKE BREEZE SAT AFTN...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD HOLD IN THE
LOW/MID 40S. SUN THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SE OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING S/SW FLOW TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER WITH A LAKE BREEZE.
STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER AIR ARRIVES MON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LONGWAVE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL
ORIENTATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO WISC MON...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. MON COULD SEE TEMPS EASILY IN THE LOW/MID
60S...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES RETURN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STRETCHING NORTH INTO WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA TUE/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO COOL
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS BY TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHUD PUSH BACK INTO THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S FOR WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
* SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING
TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
313 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP/SKY TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY.
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS SOLID MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OVER MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH
LATEST IR IMAGERY DEPICTING A RATHER DENSE CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE.
THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ASSOCIATED RAIN STEADILY APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL REACH THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS PRECIP WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS IN THIS
LOCATION BUT DID BRING IN THEM IN EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THE BULK OF ANY PREVAILING RAIN TODAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...DID KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY SHORTER DURATION RAIN. FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA...PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE WAY FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WITH 60S STILL APPEARING
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE
50S.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT...WHILE THE FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP STEER A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
THIS FRONT...BUT WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONGWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN
FOR THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH SFC RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD SAT AND
EXPANDING SUN. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
50S...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TURNING AN AFTN
LAKE BREEZE SAT AFTN...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD HOLD IN THE
LOW/MID 40S. SUN THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SE OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING S/SW FLOW TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER WITH A LAKE BREEZE.
STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER AIR ARRIVES MON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LONGWAVE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL
ORIENTATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO WISC MON...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. MON COULD SEE TEMPS EASILY IN THE LOW/MID
60S...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES RETURN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STRETCHING NORTH INTO WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA TUE/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO COOL
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS BY TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHUD PUSH BACK INTO THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S FOR WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
* SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING
TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS GUSTING UP TO 30KT BEFORE THIS AFTN...THEN BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT QUICKLY
WEAKENS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT MON
LATE AFTN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
JAMES BAY MONDAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEN ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOG IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BURNED OFF TODAY LEADING TO
NEAR UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF US HAS ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
NO REAL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BUMPING UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE
IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH
SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY
TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN
DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS
AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER
HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT
COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
SAT. THE REST OF TODAY A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH AND
AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY ONE MODEL SUGGESTS MVFR VSBYS
IN THE AM...BUT DO NOT THINK IT IS ACCURATE AS THE MODEL STILL
THINKS THERE IS SNOW AROUND. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AT
THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FROPA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QPF VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DEPART RATHER QUICKLY. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
COLD FRONT AND BRING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO WED OR WED
NIGHT. THEN...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS INTRODUCING MORE UNCERTAINTY
FROM MIDWEEK ON IN BOTH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES OR EVEN IN HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT AFTER FOG DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE
FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR 70S OR THE LOWER 70S AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RH TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND NEAR 25 IN MANY AREAS.
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WAS USED GIVEN ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT STRETCH A WIDESPREAD RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FROM WED INTO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST.
IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS
AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY
21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT
RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE
TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS/JP
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QFP VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST.
IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS
AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY
21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT
RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE
TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
142 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN
THE GRIDS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT
BE NEEDED. SENT THE UPDATED GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS
LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST.
IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS
AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY
21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT
RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE
TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
108 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN
THE GRIDS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT
BE NEEDED. SENT THE UPDATED GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS
LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS
AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR
VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE
POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF
THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT
THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS
SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS
HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW
WILL SETUP SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT AND A VERY WARM AND BREEZY
DAY FOR SUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
FOR TONIGHT...ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO BRING SOME REGIONAL-GEM
NUMBERS INTO THE LOWS TONIGHT TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SOME OUT
IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT BETTER IN THE WEST. FOR SATURDAY...WE ARE
EXPECTING FULL SUNSHINE. SINCE THIS WARMUP HAS STARTED...CLEAR DAYS
HAVE YEILDED HIGHS AT OR EVEN ABOVE THE TOP END OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM...SO BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR TOMORROW...GETTING
THEM MORE IN LINE WITH A BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND...WHICH IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE SPECTRUM.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MN...WITH LOWS IN WI
LIKELY BEING REACHED AROUND 6Z BEFORE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST HOLD
STEADY. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A 925-850 MB THERMAL RIDGE
WORK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS IN THIS LAYER MORE THAN SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF MN SOUTH OF I-94...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
THURSDAY...BUT LIKE WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY...THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR
SUNDAY IS WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUD COVER
BE. WE WILL SEE THE UPPER JET MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY AS THEY ROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM SOCAL UP TOWARD
THE NEB PANHANDLE...BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN SOME DEGREE
OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL IT IMPACT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT TRICK...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NODAK WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE POOL OUT
AHEAD OF IT TO SEE DEWPOINTS UP IN THE 40S...BUT THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF
ALL SHOW A TONGUE OF MUCH DRIER AIR COMING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN POSSIBLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S DEPENDING ON HOW DEEPLY WE MIX. DID NOT
TAKE DEWPOINTS THAT LOW...BUT CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE DEWPOINTS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN REMAINING IN THE LOW 30S...WHICH COMBINED WITH
TEMPS NEAR 70 RESULTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT. WIND
DIRECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SW DIRECTION FOR
GETTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA /AS OPPOSED TO THE SSE WINDS
WE SAW THURSDAY/...SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT DEWPOINTS GETTING LOWER.
THOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WINDS
LOOK TO BE AN ABSOLUTE SLAM DUNK. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS
AT FRM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. BOTH SHOW A DEEP /FOR MARCH/ AND DRY
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TOP OF THE MIX CHANNEL WINDS IN
THE LOW 40 KTS...WITH MID CHANNEL WINDS IN THE MID 30S. WAA SW
WINDS TEND TO NOT REACH TOP OF THE CHANNEL LEVELS...BUT CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MORE THAN SUPPORT SEEING SW WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE COMBINED PROBABILITY FOR
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 30% OFF THE
SREF...THIS HIGHLIGHTS WELL THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...THOUGH CONDITIONS
LOOK WORSE DOWN TOWARD THE SIOUX CITY AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE HEADLINED THE FWF WITH THE HEIGHTENED RISK FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE HWO.
WE DISCUSSED ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT THERE ARE STILL TOO
MANY IFS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL
DETERMINE THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS AND GEM 13.12 ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSING OF THIS FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DO MANAGE TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY PICK UP
A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
PATCH OF MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR AXN IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS MIXING INCREASES. THE HRRR HANDLED THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS
WELL...SO FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR CIGS GOING INTO TONIGHT.
BASICALLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NE MN/NW
WI...WITH QUESTION BEING HOW FAR SOUTH DO THEY EXTEND. BASED ON
THE GFS/RAP/HRRR...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF ALL MPX
TERMINALS...THOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT THIS CLOUDS BRIEFLY
GRAZING RNH/EAU LATE TONIGHT...WHICH EXPLAINS THE FEW025 CLOUD
GROUPS THAT SHOW UP AT THOSE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...OTHER
ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE AXN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO WRN MN. ATTENDANT LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OUT TOWARD AXN...WHERE CROSSOVER
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A VERY
ACHIEVABLE 10 DEGREE TEMP DROP. FOR NOW...HAVE AN MVFR VIS IN
THERE...BUT THE LAMP HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LIFR VIS IN FG.
OTHER THAN THAT...NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM
WHAT IS NOTED ABOVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS S AT 20G30 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WNW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EASILY EXCEED 20
MPH...AS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THERE ARE TWO SOURCES
OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THE EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT HIGHS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE DEALT
WITH THURSDAY. THE OTHER SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LOW WILL
DEWPOINTS BE. IF WE SEE THEM STAY STEADY AROUND 30...THEN
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY HAVE NO TROUBLE FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND
25 PERCENT WHERE TEMPERATURES MEET OR EXCEED 70. IF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMING IN AHEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT ARE MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN HUMIDITIES WOULD LIKELY
HANG UP IN THE 30S...EVEN IF WE DO SEE HIGHS AROUND 70.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND CREATE SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TODAY WITH
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C AND SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 300-500J/KG
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SFC
OBS AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW VERIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL QUITE LARGE SO WETTING RAIN
REPORTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SAF/ABQ AREA WESTWARD ONTO THE DIVIDE
THRU ABOUT 02Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. OVERALL MADE SLIGHT CHANGES
TO LOWER POPS IN MOST AREAS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY.
THE CUT OFF LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SAGGING WELL
SOUTH INTO MEXICO SATURDAY. ENOUGH REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO POP A FEW MORE GUSTY SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SFC TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER AS 700MB READINGS PUSH +7C.
DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR NICE SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THE CUT OFF LOW
IS STILL SHOWN TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON THE
SOUTHERN HORIZON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ON THE GFS TREND UP
TO NEAR 0.63 WHICH IS IN THE TOP 15 FOR MARCH. MEANWHILE...A 1029MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO LIFT MOISTURE...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. FOR
NOW LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. AN OVERALL AMORPHOUS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN. SOME
LOCALIZED WETTING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARENT EXPECTED TO COOL ALL THAT MUCH. GUSTIER EASTERLY WIND WILL
IMPACT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CERTAINLY
LOWER AND ALMOST BE CUT IN HALF COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONTAIN VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO RIDGE
STRENGTHENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WENT
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BATTLING DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND. SUSPECT
THE MAIN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
MUCH LESS MIXING. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
AND COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE DRY TO VERY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE POOR ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF ON MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS.
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW DRAWS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH SOME SORT OF SURFACE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION.
WETTING MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO
THIS LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD RISE AND TEMPERATURE READINGS WOULD
FALL. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE LOW TRANSLATION EASTWARD BUT
BRING IN ANOTHER LAZY PACIFIC LOW FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS LOOK TO BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION SHOULD INCREASE IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
STILL LOOKING LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THE PAST 24 HOURS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECOUPLING OF THE WIND FLOW. CANT RULE OUT GUSTS TO 35 KT
AT ABQ SO AN AWW WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 22Z
TO 2Z. WILL BE MONITORING THAT CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE HIT AND MISS SH/TS. USING VCSH AND TEMPO SH AT QUITE A FEW
TERMINAL SITES LIKE FMN/SAF/AEG AND ABQ. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
MOST UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WEST SO GUP HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
TS IMPACTS SO USED VCTS FOR THAT TERMINAL SITE BETWEEN 22Z TO 0Z.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY IMPACTS PRIOR TO 22Z THERE. MODERATELY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. CANT RULE OUT
SOME OCCNL MTN TOP OBSCD AND GRAUPEL ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH RISING DECKS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 35 65 31 69 / 20 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 25 62 24 67 / 30 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 29 60 29 66 / 30 20 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 63 25 70 / 30 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 56 28 63 / 30 10 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 25 59 22 67 / 20 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 57 30 64 / 20 5 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 67 37 74 / 20 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 57 21 63 / 30 20 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 58 35 65 / 20 10 5 0
PECOS........................... 32 55 31 64 / 10 10 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 56 23 64 / 20 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 48 24 55 / 30 20 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 49 18 58 / 30 20 10 5
TAOS............................ 26 58 25 66 / 10 10 5 0
MORA............................ 29 54 27 64 / 20 10 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 32 65 32 72 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 35 57 35 65 / 10 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 63 31 70 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 63 40 69 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 66 38 72 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 67 35 71 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 68 37 73 / 10 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 67 33 72 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 67 37 72 / 10 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 39 67 36 71 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 59 35 65 / 20 10 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 36 65 35 70 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 60 24 67 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 58 31 65 / 10 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 58 31 65 / 10 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 63 32 67 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 31 56 30 63 / 20 10 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 58 28 68 / 10 5 0 0
RATON........................... 30 60 25 70 / 10 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 30 59 25 70 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 56 27 67 / 10 5 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 38 62 34 72 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 60 30 68 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 41 65 35 72 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 65 33 71 / 10 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 68 31 76 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 38 65 33 71 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 38 64 33 70 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 66 34 71 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 67 35 69 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 60 33 64 / 10 10 5 0
ELK............................. 37 54 33 59 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH
19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER
ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL
VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED.
IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF
SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS
ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINAL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
FOG/STRATUS COULD BUILD INTO KMOT-KJMS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OUT OF THE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH
19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER
ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL
VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED.
IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF
SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS
ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 22-23 UTC THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG MAY BUILD BACK INTO KMOT AND KJMS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED UPON
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS
THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO
HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE
IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC
HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX
OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING
TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH
THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE
REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE
SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
IFR FOG AND STRATUS HAS ERODED AT KMOT...YET WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 20-21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG MAY
BUILD BACK INTO KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TOL AREA STAYING OUT OF THE
RAIN SO WILL LOWER THE POP THERE...ESPECIALLY NW LUCAS CO.
THE QPF STILL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOWEST OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
AND THE HIGHEST MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE NUISANCE OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA
AS QPF THERE...EVEN THOUGH HEAVIER THAN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...
SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER THAT NEEDED FOR MORE THAN NUISANCE HIGH
WATER PONDING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.
CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH MAINLY FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.
THE RUNOFF FROM THE WARM RAIN EVEN THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WILL KEEP THE ICE MOVING AND ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM.
THE LOWS ARE ALSO TRICKY. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE WITH
DEW POINTS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE RAIN WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO HANG UNTO TO
SOME SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
GETTING DOWN TO 8 DEGREES AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR MONDAY
NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH. WENT TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
CLOUDS COULD DECREASE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD GET A LITTLE SUN AND THAT
COULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE.
THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM FOR MONDAY. IT SEEMS TOO WARM VERSUS THE
OTHER MODELS. WENT CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY. THE ONLY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY AND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON
TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THESE SHOULD WRAP UP DURING THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO
BEGIN TO RETURN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
SW ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY 00Z SATURDAY. WILL
GO WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA.
WILL TRY TO TIME THIS PRECIP NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE NEW PACKAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
RAIN WILL START WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN THEN
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DIP TO MVFR. FOR THE NE 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS
WON`T OCCUR TILL AFTER DARK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT
IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT IN THE TAFS. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
BY 12Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
THEN CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT FLIPPING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SPEEDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE WATCH AREA
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL HELP MOVE
ICE IN THE RIVERS AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ICE JAMS. EXPECTED
RAINFALL TODAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE WATCH AREA WILL MAINLY BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG
RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE
COVERED. AS OF LATE THIS MORNING THE ROCKY RIVER IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY
WAS FREE OF ICE.
DID NOT EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AS
MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO NEARLY AN INCH.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
HYDROLOGY...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST...AFFECTING KOUN AND
KOKC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING KLAW AND KSPS
EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF STILLWATER/OKC AND
LAWTON/DUNCAN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR
CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK
THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A
TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER
CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE
FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 70 20 10 0
HOBART OK 71 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 74 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 100 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF STILLWATER/OKC AND
LAWTON/DUNCAN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR
CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK
THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A
TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER
CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE
FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0
HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A weak surface cold front appears to be located from south of KROW
eastward to near KBGS. It`s hard to define the boundary right now
as insolation is offsetting meager cold air advection. In addition,
much of the Permian Basin is sitting in a col in the surface pressure
field, meaning that winds are light and variable and the cold
front will become a bit more diffuse. Winds will become northerly/
northeasterly in the 10-15 mph range around midday. Convection-
allowing models are developing an extensive CU field by mid
afternoon across the Permian Basin south across the lower Trans Pecos
and west across southeastern New Mexico. Within a few hours of max
heating, WRF and HRRR model data and BUFR soundings suggest a few
-SHRA developing over southeastern New Mexico. With a dry sub-cloud
layer, however, the chances for measurable precip are pretty low.
This CU field will dissipate around if not before sunset as the
PBL decouples; however, we will see an increase in mid-level
moisture through the overnight hours. Winds will back a bit and drop
off some overnight. A secondary cold front, now nosing into northeastern
New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle, is expected to arrive
during the morning hours Saturday. Temperatures tomorrow will be
slightly cooler than today given the mid-level cloud deck and weak
surface cold air advection. The upshot here is that winds will pick
up again out of the north to northeast into the 10-15 mph range by
mid morning, with higher gusts possible by midday Saturday as the
low level pressure gradient increases.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all area TAF sites through 18Z Saturday.
Northeast winds AOA 11 kts will appear for a few hours this afternoon
before falling off around sunset. North to northeast winds will
pick up above 11 kts by mid morning Saturday, with gusts up above
15 kts possible by the 18Z Saturday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with mid
and high clouds gradually increasing over the next 24 hours.
Light and variable winds this morning will increase from the
northeast this afternoon, though are expected to remain aob 12KT,
and will diminish slightly after sunset.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels have persistent upper trough over Central Plains
that will develop a cut off low over Mexico. This low retrogrades
back to the west before weakening and being swept across the area
early next week. As this happens another upper trough will work
down the west coast keeping the region in SW flow aloft through the
end of the week. The result is an active upper pattern that will
keep potential for rain/storms in the forecast.
Will have increasing mid and high clouds today moving in from the
west. These should hang around most of the day but not have much
affect on temps. Mild wx will continue today with slightly above
normal temperatures with highs in the 70s. The wind will come
around to the north today but not expecting the arrival of a weak
cold front until Saturday. Should only be a few degrees cooler on
Saturday and Sunday. Highs return to the 70s by Monday as wind
becomes southerly. May receive another weak front the middle of
next week but models are having a hard time bringing it through.
Could be some showers and storms Saturday south of the Pecos
River... mainly over the higher elevations. Better chances of precip
next week. Storm chances begin Monday night down south and spread
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday as remains of lift track over
the area. Pops decrease a little on Thursday then pick up again on
Friday ahead of next upper trough. Currently best chance of precip
looks to be late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY
THIS EVENING AS A PESKY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR KSHV MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARD TO CIGS/VSBY. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CIGS AND
AREAS OF FOG WHILE THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDS. EXTRAPOLATING THE RAP AND HRRR SOMEWHAT SUPPORTS THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
UPDATE...EXITING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER TEXARKANA AND WILL MAINTAIN
A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAINS OVER
TRINITY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH RAINS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU COVERS ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN LOW LEVEL WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
MARCOTTE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 52 69 51 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 53 71 54 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 57 68 57 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF RAIN STARTING TODAY AND LASTING INTO LATE SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE OVERSPREADING OUR ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS PUSHES EAST...AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST GULF COAST ADVANCES INTO ARKANSAS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM
THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT AREAS OF RAINFALL VERY
WELL. ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE SCATTERED...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE
TO REACH THE SURFACE.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL STILL SEE
RAIN OFF AND ON...SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES CATEGORICAL. HIGHER FLUX OF
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL BE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD
FRONT. WITH RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
ALBEIT WITH WATER LEVELS ON THEIR WAY DOWN...AND TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW PACK...WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO SUMMERS COUNTY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM THOSE OBSERVED
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THE MORNING
RAIN AND LATE DAY SHOWERS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LOWS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY MORNING.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST. PRESSURE RISES AND A BRIEF BUT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
RADAR INDICATES THAT BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT ADVANCING MUCH FURTHER EAST AS THESE BANDS
ENCOUNTER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 14/00Z OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...
WHERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FINALLY MAKES MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE.
DURING THE 14/00Z TO 14/03Z TIMEFRAME...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO
IFR LEVELS...LTE 1KFT...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BANDS OF RAIN WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
AND...WHILE NOT FALLING CONTINUOUSLY...RAINFALL WILL BE MORE ON
THAN OFF. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...
RAMPING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
SHOWERY NATURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECASTING AROUND 1" OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS
OF SE WV NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...AND RIVERS STILL RUNNING
UP...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GOING TO EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF SE
WV THRU EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SPECIFICALLY THINKING PLACES ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND MEADOW RIVER WILL SEE THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...THE BLUESTONE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE GIVEN
THE LACK OF SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS SURROUNDING THIS BASIN. BATH
COUNTY VA WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT SOME RISES ON BACK CREEK IN
THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED HERE...SO NO WATCH PLANNED YET.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP