Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/12/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
...SPOTTY EVENING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SOME
EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
IN COLORADO YET...BUT VERY CLOSE...OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
NEW MEXICO...JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER...SOUTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND EXPANDING A
LITTLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR STILL WANTS
TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS INTO BACA AND
PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES COUNTY THIS EVENING. IT HAS
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. LAST NIGHT`S 4 KM NSSL WRF
DEPICTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. SO...IN ADDITION TO SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...HAVE ALSO SPREAD ISOLATED POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH BUT THAT`S WHY THE POPS ARE SO LOW. SHOWERS WILL FALL AS
SNOW ABOVE 9000 TO 10000 FEET WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR 2
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD EVEN BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING SO WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
FOR THAT AREA.
EVERYTHING SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...LATE IN
THE DAY...WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS POP UP IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. READINGS
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...BOTH AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GREAT
BASIN SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PASSING WEAK
TROUGH SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SFC-H7 UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER TROUGH
DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG OR COLD...HOWEVER...WITH H5 TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND -20C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGED BETWEEN 6-8C THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...COULD STILL
SEE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
642 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK...WITH MAIN UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S...AND A COMBO OF ADVECTION
AND IN- SITU FOG DEVELOP OVER THE COLD WATERS AND SNOWPACK
RESPECTIVELY. WEBCAMS ALONG NYC HARBOR AND SW LI COAST ARE SHOWING
REDUCED VSBYS ALREADY. HRRR AND NARRE INITIALIZING THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SE PA REMARKABLY WELL...AND PROGGING
THIS TO EXPAND NE INTO THE TRI-STATE THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
LEFT OUT ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS POINT AS IT SHOULD BE PROTECTED A
BIT FROM THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR BY THE HILLS ON THEIR SE BORDER.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
AFTER 06-08Z SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG FLOW WILL BE. SO HAVE RUN DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP RAIN
THIS EVENING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND 150 TO 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 06Z BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES EAST. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE 1/4 TO NEAR 1/3 INCH
OF RAIN IS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...RAIN ENDS QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK. TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE. A MILD DAY IS ON
TAP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS
BUILDING OVERHEAD. HAVE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND POTENTIALLY
MIDDLE 50S IN THE CITY AND SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND MIDDLE 30S IN THE NYC METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND IN THE
30S IN/AROUND NYC.
LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THAT LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS IT APPROACHES...A SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH...STRENGTHENING THE
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THIS LOW WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THEN.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT PTYPE WILL BECOME A CONCERN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
PLAIN RAIN FOR NYC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...TEMPS WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT...AND PRECIP
CHANGES BACK TO ALL RAIN. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY DURING
THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50.
LOW PRES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...TOUCHING OFF SOME
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN.
THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THAT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RA QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE NY METRO ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
IFR TOWARD OR JUST AFTER 00Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO NEAR 1/4 MILE AT TIMES WITH
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. RESIDUAL FOG IN THE MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE TO VFR WITH NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT SE SFC FLOW THIS AFTN...BUT 20-25KT SE WNDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
THAT VEER TO SW THIS THIS EVENING AS THEY WEAKEN.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND HOW LOW
IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENT IN SFC WNDS < 10 KT...BUT STRONGER WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT. SFC WNDS < 10 KT...BUT
STRONGER SE-S WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NGT-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...BECOMING IFR IN RASN EARLY CHANGING TO RA. LGT SE SFC WND.
.SUN...MFVR. CHC -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WITH MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF IT...DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS TO NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS MAY REACH 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCA LEVELS. SEAS BUILD TO
TO 3 TO 4 FT ON OCEAN WATERS...AND COULD BE CLOSE TO 5 FT ON EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY SCA HEADLINES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDS
TRANQUIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRES PASSES OVER THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AND OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS A RESULT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME AIR TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER/STREAM ICE TO BEGIN
ROTTING. BUT COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT
AND RATE OF ICE BREAK-UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
078>081-176>179.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ068>071.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
104>108.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
353-355.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MPS/DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MPS/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1015 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FOG THREAT CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAR LESS THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS AS DRIER AIR
HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND JUST DEEPER MIXING OCCURRED TODAY. A
FEW LOCATIONS WHICH WENT CALM IN WINDS EARLIER HAVE CLOSE T/TD
SPREADS BUT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW-LYING AREAS OR NEAR RIVERS AND INLAND LAKES...AND CANT RULE
OUT SOME OF THAT TO BE LOCALLY DENSE. BUT ANY SHOULD BURN OFF
SPEEDILY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK...WITH COOL LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 20S...WHILE AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 30 IN THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE EAST
OVERNIGHT BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS AND MAY
BECOME CALM IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME...EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MID TEEN KT RANGE. POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY
TURN BACK MORE EASTERLY AT ORD/MDW SHOULD A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD GROUND...
THINK SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS MOST LIKELY AND PROBABLY IN THE
FAVORED/OUTLYING AREAS. SO CONTINUED WITH THE MIFG MENTION AT
RFD/DPA. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
850 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FOG THREAT CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAR LESS THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS AS DRIER AIR
HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND JUST DEEPER MIXING OCCURRED TODAY. A
FEW LOCATIONS WHICH WENT CALM IN WINDS EARLIER HAVE CLOSE T/TD
SPREADS BUT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW-LYING AREAS OR NEAR RIVERS AND INLAND LAKES...AND CANT RULE
OUT SOME OF THAT TO BE LOCALLY DENSE. BUT ANY SHOULD BURN OFF
SPEEDILY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK...WITH COOL LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 20S...WHILE AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 30 IN THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE EAST
OVERNIGHT BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS AND MAY
BECOME CALM IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME...EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MID TEEN KT RANGE. POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY
TURN BACK MORE EASTERLY AT ORD/MDW SHOULD A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD GROUND...
THINK SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS MOST LIKELY AND PROBABLY IN THE
FAVORED/OUTLYING AREAS. SO CONTINUED WITH THE MIFG MENTION AT
RFD/DPA. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
632 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE EAST
OVERNIGHT BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS AND MAY
BECOME CALM IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME...EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MID TEEN KT RANGE. POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY
TURN BACK MORE EASTERLY AT ORD/MDW SHOULD A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD GROUND...
THINK SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS MOST LIKELY AND PROBABLY IN THE
FAVORED/OUTLYING AREAS. SO CONTINUED WITH THE MIFG MENTION AT
RFD/DPA. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SREF
PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH RAP AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS APPEAR TO
BE HANDLING THIS WELL. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH INDY SUBURBS
NORTHWARD...FROM MIDNIGHT ON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE DENSE IN SPOTS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS WITH THIS EXPECTATION
AND WILL UPDATE OTHER PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
ADDITIONALLY...PER HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE BUMPED MIN TEMPS
UP SLIGHTLY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY TWEAKS REQUIRED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT AS FAR
AS CLOUD COVER.
DON/T THINK THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS
MORNING...AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIND TONIGHT ADVECTING LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING IN POPS STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST LIFT.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GIVEN ITS ORIGINS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ISN/T VERY STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATERS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF
200% OF NORMAL...THERE IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
MAY BE TOO COOL. WILL NUDGE UP THE HIGHS A BIT. WILL ALSO LOWER THE
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...DUE TO EXPECTED
RAINFALL. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS OK
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST WED MAR 11 2015
TRANQUIL PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGHOUT THOUGH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
BEFORE RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL.
HAVE GONE WITH THE BLEND FOR TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES AS THEY APPEARED
IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 120300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
REDUCED CONDITIONS TO MVFR. MAY HAVE TO REDUCE CONDITIONS EVEN
FURTHER...HOWEVER WITH DRY ADVECTION...WILL NOT FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH NEAR SURFACE DRYING OUT...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG ISSUE TO BE AS
BIG TONIGHT. THAT SAID...COULD SEE SOME IFR FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
02Z...MAINLY AT LAF...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD WAS
LOWER. WILL GO WITH JUST MVFR CONDITIONS AND START A FEW HOURS LATER
AT THE OTHER SITES. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. WHATEVER FOG OR STRATUS
THERE IS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER TOMORROW AS WELL. SHOULD ONLY SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EAST 10 KNOTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
838 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SREF
PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH RAP AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS APPEAR TO
BE HANDLING THIS WELL. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH INDY SUBURBS
NORTHWARD...FROM MIDNIGHT ON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE DENSE IN SPOTS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS WITH THIS EXPECTATION
AND WILL UPDATE OTHER PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
ADDITIONALLY...PER HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE BUMPED MIN TEMPS
UP SLIGHTLY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY TWEAKS REQUIRED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT AS FAR
AS CLOUD COVER.
DON/T THINK THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS
MORNING...AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIND TONIGHT ADVECTING LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING IN POPS STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST LIFT.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GIVEN ITS ORIGINS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ISN/T VERY STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATERS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF
200% OF NORMAL...THERE IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
MAY BE TOO COOL. WILL NUDGE UP THE HIGHS A BIT. WILL ALSO LOWER THE
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...DUE TO EXPECTED
RAINFALL. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS OK
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST WED MAR 11 2015
TRANQUIL PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGHOUT THOUGH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
BEFORE RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL.
HAVE GONE WITH THE BLEND FOR TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES AS THEY APPEARED
IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 120000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WITH NEAR SURFACE DRYING OUT...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG ISSUE TO BE AS
BIG TONIGHT. THAT SAID...COULD SEE SOME IFR FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
02Z...MAINLY AT LAF...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD WAS
LOWER. WILL GO WITH JUST MVFR CONDITIONS AND START A FEW HOURS LATER
AT THE OTHER SITES. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. WHATEVER FOG OR STRATUS
THERE IS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER TOMORROW AS WELL. SHOULD ONLY SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EAST 10 KNOTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.
A MILD AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY STABLE/DRY SO MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
WEDNESDAY).
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. APPLYING A SIMILAR BIAS TO
ADVERTISED H85 TEMPS WOULD BRING HIGHS AROUND 70 TO MOST OF THE
CWA. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LESS MIXING THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE...BUT TREND IS THERE AND CONFIDENCE IS IN HIGHS AT LEAST
AS WARM AS MONDAY IF NOT WARMER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE TROUGH AND SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER WAA AND BETTER MIXING
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DURING THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE ON
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH DAYS WITH BIAS
CORRECTION SUPPORTING MID 70S LIKELY IN OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING WE SHOULD SEE TD VALUES DROP INTO THE
20S AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TD
RECOVERY THURSDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL LIMIT WINDS TO WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EVEN IF
WE WERE TO MIX A LITTLE DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR RED FLAG WARNING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
508 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.
A MILD AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY STABLE/DRY SO MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
WEDNESDAY).
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. APPLYING A SIMILAR BIAS TO
ADVERTISED H85 TEMPS WOULD BRING HIGHS AROUND 70 TO MOST OF THE
CWA. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LESS MIXING THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE...BUT TREND IS THERE AND CONFIDENCE IS IN HIGHS AT LEAST
AS WARM AS MONDAY IF NOT WARMER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE TROUGH AND SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER WAA AND BETTER MIXING
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DURING THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE ON
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH DAYS WITH BIAS
CORRECTION SUPPORTING MID 70S LIKELY IN OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. NW
FLOW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING WINDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT INCREASE TO
10-12KT AT KGLD. I COULD SEE A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND 18KT...BUT
AM NOT CONFIDENT THESE WOULD PREVAIL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING WE SHOULD SEE TD VALUES DROP INTO THE
20S AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TD
RECOVERY THURSDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL LIMIT WINDS TO WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EVEN IF
WE WERE TO MIX A LITTLE DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR RED FLAG WARNING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.
A MILD AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY STABLE/DRY SO MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
WEDNESDAY).
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. APPLYING A SIMILAR BIAS TO
ADVERTISED H85 TEMPS WOULD BRING HIGHS AROUND 70 TO MOST OF THE
CWA. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LESS MIXING THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE...BUT TREND IS THERE AND CONFIDENCE IS IN HIGHS AT LEAST
AS WARM AS MONDAY IF NOT WARMER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE TROUGH AND SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER WAA AND BETTER MIXING
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DURING THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE ON
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH DAYS WITH BIAS
CORRECTION SUPPORTING MID 70S LIKELY IN OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING GLD AND THERE IS SOME
WIND SHEAR SHOWING UP AS AS A SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
45KTS A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AGL WHILE SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS HAVE A
VARIABLE GUSTINESS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KTS. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY 09Z AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT MCK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING WE SHOULD SEE TD VALUES DROP INTO THE
20S AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TD
RECOVERY THURSDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL LIMIT WINDS TO WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EVEN IF
WE WERE TO MIX A LITTLE DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR RED FLAG WARNING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JSL
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING GLD AND THERE IS SOME
WIND SHEAR SHOWING UP AS AS A SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
45KTS A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AGL WHILE SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS HAVE A
VARIABLE GUSTINESS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KTS. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY 09Z AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT MCK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW H5/H7 RIDGE FLUCTUATING FROM THE WEST COAST ON INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ROCKIES. A CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
TEXAS...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST ON INTO
THE ROCKIES AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH...RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE OUT OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR
POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLANS. GIVEN THIS...THE
EASTERN COLORADO AREA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF RAINSHOWERS AT BEST. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED...A RANGE
OF 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL OCCUR AS 925MB TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +15C UP TO +23C. THE HIGHER POINTS IN THIS RANGE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WORKS OVER REGION...ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
ABOUT +20C AT 925MB BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH
WARMEST AREAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING GLD AND THERE IS SOME
WIND SHEAR SHOWING UP AS AS A SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
45KTS A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AGL WHILE SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS HAVE A
VARIABLE GUSTINESS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KTS. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY 09Z AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT MCK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
444 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA W/LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MAINE. ALOFT, A WEAK IMPULSE
WAS AIDING TO TRIGGER THE ACTIVITY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM12
AND RAP SHOW THIS SNOW MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION W/SOME CLEARING BACK ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. QUITE A RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS LOW LYING AREAS HAD DROPPED DOWN
BELOW 0F SUCH AS MASARDIS AND ESTCOURT STATION WHILE OTHER AREAS
WERE AVERAGING IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS(N & W) AND MID 20S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST THANKS IN PART TO CLOUD COVER. WEAK HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE E TODAY
AND ANY RIDGING PULLING E.
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY W/LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. THE NAM & GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
COLUMN TO MOISTEN THROUGH 700MBS. A 50 KT JET FROM 850-700MBS PER
THE 00Z UA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S SETUP OF 60% POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA
W/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY NORTH OF CAR AND
PQI. SOUTH OF CAR-PQI, PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY W/NO
MENTION OF PRECIP S OF THE HUL-MLT REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHALLENGE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO PRECIP
AND CLOUDS. THE WARM AIR ALOFT COULD BE IMPEDED FOR A FEW HRS
UNTIL THE FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS N OF THE BORDER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE TALKING MAXES COULD BE HIT LATE IN THE DAY W/LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CROWN WHILE FROM HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET ON
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TEMPS WARM NICELY DUE TO
THIS REGION BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR(UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S).
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOO FAR TONIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER THE WARM SECTOR. AS A MATTER OF FACT, READINGS
WILL RISE AFTER A WHILE LATER THIS EVENING ALL THE WAY TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. THE WARMING LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS COOLING IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE NAM, GFS AND CANADIAN GEM.
THEREFORE, A COOLDOWN BY DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES W/TEMPS ACROSS THE N AND W AOB 32F AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W/THE COLD
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/THE HELP OF STRONG VORTICITY MAX
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY GET SOME
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF.... BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO
TRENDS TO BRING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS WITH SOME
MODIFICATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THEN MVFR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN THE TERMIMALS. KFVE COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR W/SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. KBGR AND KBHB
WILL SEE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THERE IS A RISK OF SOME
LOW CLOUDS(1500 FOOT DECK) AND MVFR LATER TONIGHT W/A SSW WIND.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE TREND
CURRENTLY IN THE DATABASE SHOWING SSW WINDS COMING UP TO 15 TO 20
KT THIS EVENING W/GUST POTENTIAL TO 25 KTS. THE OUTER WATERS WILL
SEE THE BEST SHOT FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS. A 45-50 JET ABOVE 5K FT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
CROSSING OF THE WINDS WHICH COULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE
THE BLYR.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: A LIMITED
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GO OFF-SHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DRAG A WARM FRONT
ACROSS MAINE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1200 AM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ECHOES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. METAR AT MLT
SHOWING SOME LIGHT MIST(BR) MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
THE LATEST HRRR 3KM AND WRF DID A FINE JOB IN PICKING UP ON THE
THIS ACTIVITY. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOWED FORECAST CAPES OF 60 TO
70 JOULES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE AND WHERE THE ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS. ADDED SOME CHANCE
POPS(30-405) FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE(20%) ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. LLVL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MID
LEVEL FORCING WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. CURRENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE DOING WELL
ATTM.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AND CLOUD COVER
FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS
RATHER TRICKY. EXPECT TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE
COLDER VALLEYS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE WARM FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
MIGHT GET AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE LOW 40S TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY GET SOME
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF.... BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO
TRENDS TO BRING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS WITH SOME
MODIFICATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. FVE
COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1200 AM UPDATE...DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN
BACK BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE COMING DOWN AS WELL. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: A LIMITED
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GO OFF-SHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT SHARPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS JET STREAK DIGS FM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH IMPACTS MOSTLY NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER COULD SEE LGT PRECIP. INCLUDED
CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST CWA AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO POSSIBILITY
AS SFC WARMING LAGS WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN RAW MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO FREEZING AT 12Z AFTER
LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL NOT HIT THIS UP TOO HARD THOUGH AS PRECIP
CHANCES OVERALL ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE BY
FRIDAY AFTN WHICH WITH SW WINDS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE UP WELL
INTO THE 50S. RAISED TEMPS FOR AT LEAST WEST HALF. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLEARING...COULD SEE REPEAT OF TUESDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS
ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING BY TIME IT REACHES EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF/NAM AND GEM TO TRACK MAINLY OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. 12Z GFS FAVORS WESTERN TRACK
WHICH BRINGS MORE PRECIP OVER MUCH OF CWA. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF AREA...COLDER AIR ADVECTION BLO H7 WOULD SWITCH ANY RAIN
QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...MORE FZRA COULD ALSO OCCUR AS
COLDER AIR FIRST ARRIVES BLO H9 WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE 0C.
GIVEN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EVEN THE FARTHER EAST NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIP IN THAT CASE WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW UPR MICHIGAN
WHERE NW WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE LIFTING. CHANCES HERE APPEAR EVEN
LESS THAN THOSE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THAT IS UNLESS THE 12Z
GFS IS CORRECT WITH ITS WETTER SOLUTION. STRONG NW WINDS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THOUGH IT COULD
PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SCNTRL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE
SNOW ON GROUND IS LIMITED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT
COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 10C THROUGH 18Z. GFS
MUCH COLDER THOUGH. USED CONSENSUS AND BUMPED UP OVER SCNTRL BUT
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH SPEED OF FROPA AND
THUS THE MAX TEMPS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THAT TIME FRAME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER EAST HALF
WITH MAINLY RAIN UNTIL SUB -10C TEMPS AT H85 CRASH IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. SOME OPEN WATER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR
SO GIVEN LINGERING H85 MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15C MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR LK EFFECT
IN NW FLOW AREAS FM NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EAST CWA. OTHER BIG STORY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. INCREASED THESE
OVER CONSENSUS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF WINDS MAY EVEN END UP STRONGER GIVEN THE SHARP
CONTRAST OF THE AIRMASSES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUB 995MB LOW TRACKING WEST-TO-EAST
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP WITH THE COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES FOR NW FLOW AREAS. H85
TEMPS FM 12Z ECMWF ARE DOWN TO -20C ON TUESDAY. GFS MUCH MORE
MODERATE WITH ONLY -10C THOUGH SO WILL KEEP WITH CONSENSUS AS MODELS
ARE NOT TOO CONSISTENT ON EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRES MOVING E
OF THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES
AND APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS THU AT KIWD
AND ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25KT OR SO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO...JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER
JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO -4C TO -6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 30 ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WED...ANY LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXEPCT DRIER AND COOLDER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NW WINDS
BOOSTED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S CNTRL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU-NEXT TUESDAY
AS W-NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
IN THE 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN ON BOTH OF THOSE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
THE CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING RAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGARDS OF PHASING
OF THE NRN SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
MAINTAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND AS SUCH MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST
FASTER. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST MORE PHASING AND AS SUCH
ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE GEM/UKMET. AS SUCH...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. REGARDLESS...THE BIG
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT RISE
TO ABOVE +10C SO SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL
YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEST AS MIXING INCREASING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND 925-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS FCST 925-
850 MB RH AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW. WITH ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY MENTIONE CIGS TO 3K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU-NEXT TUESDAY
AS W-NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
IN THE 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN ON BOTH OF THOSE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
THE CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING RAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGARDS OF PHASING
OF THE NRN SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
MAINTAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND AS SUCH MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST
FASTER. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST MORE PHASING AND AS SUCH
ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE GEM/UKMET. AS SUCH...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. REGARDLESS...THE BIG
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT RISE
TO ABOVE +10C SO SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL
YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEST AS MIXING INCREASING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND 925-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS FCST 925-
850 MB RH AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW. WITH ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY MENTIONE CIGS TO 3K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE ON MOST
DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONUS. ACROSS UPPER MI...THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. EVEN ON THE COOLER DAYS...
TEMPS WILL BE NO LOWER THAN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAR. JUST BEYOND
THIS FCST PERIOD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A RETURN OF AN
AMPLIFIED FAR WRN NAMERICA RIDGE. THIS WILL AGAIN FORCE INCREASED
ERN NAMERICA TROFFING AND A RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. FARTHER OUT...GEM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
FAVOR BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO LATE MONTH. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE`VE
TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD PATTERN TO A WARM ONE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER (BLO NORMAL PCPN) WILL PROBABLY PERSIST NEXT WEEK AS
WELL DESPITE GOING BACK TO A COLD PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR (MUCH OF WI INTO PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AT 25 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL PCPN
SINCE JAN 1). THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN MAY OCCUR LATE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A COLDER PATTERN...BUT EVEN THAT PCPN DOESN`T LOOK
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
BEGINNING WED...FOLLOWING COLD FROPA TODAY...WED WILL BE A DRY/MUCH
COOLER DAY...COOLEST ACROSS THE N AND E WITH GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID 30S WILL BE THE RULE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONE ITEM OF POSSIBLE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO START THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY W OF UPPER MI...CLOSER
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NCNTRL MN AT 12Z WED.
WED NIGHT/THU...WAA DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES
RIDGE SHIFTING E TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE WAA/RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR COLUMN
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR N OF UPPER
MI IN ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WARMING
THU...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...EVEN SHALLOW MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST TO RISE TOWARD 50F. COOLEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS OFF THE
ICY WATERS.
FRI/SAT...SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE NE PACIFIC INTO BC THU IS
FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT IN RESPONSE TO BRIEF RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM IN WRN CANADA. JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE...WEAKER ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU
NIGHT/FRI. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELD UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT
WOULD SEEM BETTER POTENTIAL OF PCPN WILL OCCUR N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THUS N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -RA TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI. MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR FRI
NIGHT AS MAIN WAVE AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS REACH 140M WITH MAX PASSING ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN
DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SCHC/CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN CHANGING TO
-SHSN APPEAR WARRANTED FRI NIGHT/SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO MAX HEIGHT FALLS. IT WILL TURN
NOTABLY COOLER FOR SAT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C UNDER
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LWR 30S TO AROUND 40F...
WARMEST SCNTRL.
WAA QUICKLY KICKS IN AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN UNDER A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME WHICH BRINGS THE WRN CANADIAN RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. BY SUN MORNING...850MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL BE
BACK UP TO 0C E TO 3C W...AND THEN 3 TO 8C BY SUN EVENING UNDER
STRENGTHENING S TO SW WINDS. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WELL N OF HERE...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. TEMPS SUN WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.
MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR A FEW DAYS...
SEVERAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 10 TO 15C MON.
HOWEVER...TEMP FCST WILL HINGE ON SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATE ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING WHILE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN EARLY HIGHS IN
THE 40S WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING. GFS/ECMWF HAVEN`T BEEN CONSISENT ON
FRONTAL TIMING WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE INTO
THE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE IS A TREND FOR A FASTER FROPA WITH THE
00Z RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH AN AVERAGING OF RECENT RUNS
WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS MOSTLY MID 40S TO MID 50S. SAME METHODOLOGY
GOES FOR POPS WHICH WILL BE THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. COLDER AIR
ARRIVING AFTER FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD
AIR DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE
RESULTS IN A DOWNSTREAM TAP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN
TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEST AS MIXING INCREASING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND 925-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS FCST 925-
850 MB RH AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW. WITH ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY MENTIONE CIGS TO 3K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WEEK WILL
SEE SUNSHINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DOWN SOUTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS. SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR RUC THAT THE FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OUR MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND LOW CLOUDS
AND TEMPS FOR THE AREA. WE HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST
FOR TODAY AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE AS A RESULT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO OUR THINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. WE EXPECT THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO MOVE OUT/MIX OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL STAY DOWN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND VS. THE 50S THAT LOOKED LIKELY.
WE WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRATUS MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. WE ARE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH LESS STRATUS.
THE NAM IS THE MAIN MODEL SHOWING THE STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
ITS CHRONIC ISSUE OF BEING OVER-SENSITIVE WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE
AND COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WED MAY ACTUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THEN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH AND ADVECT A BIT OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MILD WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH AND EASTERLY FLOW THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO TRACK
UP THE OH VALLEY LEAVING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI DRY. TYPICALLY WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE FIND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AS A RESULT I DID REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW. STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SYSTEM CLOSELY GIVEN THE FACT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMER FOR FRI NIGHT. THEY NO LONGER SUPPORT
SNOW. A SMALL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. MORE COMMONLY THE CLOUDS LIMITED THAT
POTENTIAL. BASED ON THAT I TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD RAIN. STILL
THE RISK FOR RAIN IS LOW.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THE DIGGING WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. I DID KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SAT NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR MONDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP AND COULD SUPPORT STRONGER VALUES THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY
SHOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. HOWEVER BASED ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY KMKG AND KLAN SHOULD SEE THE CIGS SCATTER THE QUICKEST.
LOOK FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO REFORM AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE VSBYS AND CIGS INCREASE BEHIND IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ONE
SITE BEING WATCHED IS AT HOLT ON SYCAMORE CREEK. THIS SITE IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS RIVER RISES HAVE JUST BEGUN TO
OCCUR.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BECOMES A
CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
124 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WEEK WILL
SEE SUNSHINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DOWN SOUTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS. SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR RUC THAT THE FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OUR MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND LOW CLOUDS
AND TEMPS FOR THE AREA. WE HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST
FOR TODAY AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE AS A RESULT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO OUR THINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. WE EXPECT THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO MOVE OUT/MIX OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL STAY DOWN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND VS. THE 50S THAT LOOKED LIKELY.
WE WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRATUS MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. WE ARE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH LESS STRATUS.
THE NAM IS THE MAIN MODEL SHOWING THE STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
ITS CHRONIC ISSUE OF BEING OVER-SENSITIVE WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE
AND COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WED MAY ACTUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THEN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH AND ADVECT A BIT OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MILD WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH AND EASTERLY FLOW THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO TRACK
UP THE OH VALLEY LEAVING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI DRY. TYPICALLY WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE FIND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AS A RESULT I DID REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW. STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SYSTEM CLOSELY GIVEN THE FACT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMER FOR FRI NIGHT. THEY NO LONGER SUPPORT
SNOW. A SMALL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. MORE COMMONLY THE CLOUDS LIMITED THAT
POTENTIAL. BASED ON THAT I TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD RAIN. STILL
THE RISK FOR RAIN IS LOW.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THE DIGGING WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. I DID KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SAT NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR MONDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP AND COULD SUPPORT STRONGER VALUES THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY
SHOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR KMKG
AND KGRR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT KMKG COULD STAY IFR INTO TONIGHT.
INLAND IT LOOKS LIKE THE IFR SHOULD RETURN FOR KAZO...KBTL AND
KJXN AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN. WILL STILL FEATURE MVFR OR BETTER FOR
KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOSE BY TO THESE SITES AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ONE
SITE BEING WATCHED IS AT HOLT ON SYCAMORE CREEK. THIS SITE IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS RIVER RISES HAVE JUST BEGUN TO
OCCUR.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BECOMES A
CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
751 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WEEK WILL
SEE SUNSHINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DOWN SOUTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS. SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR RUC THAT THE FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OUR MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND LOW CLOUDS
AND TEMPS FOR THE AREA. WE HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST
FOR TODAY AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE AS A RESULT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO OUR THINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. WE EXPECT THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO MOVE OUT/MIX OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL STAY DOWN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND VS. THE 50S THAT LOOKED LIKELY.
WE WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRATUS MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. WE ARE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH LESS STRATUS.
THE NAM IS THE MAIN MODEL SHOWING THE STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
ITS CHRONIC ISSUE OF BEING OVER-SENSITIVE WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE
AND COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WED MAY ACTUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THEN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH AND ADVECT A BIT OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MILD WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH AND EASTERLY FLOW THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO TRACK
UP THE OH VALLEY LEAVING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI DRY. TYPICALLY WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE FIND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AS A RESULT I DID REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW. STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SYSTEM CLOSELY GIVEN THE FACT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMER FOR FRI NIGHT. THEY NO LONGER SUPPORT
SNOW. A SMALL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. MORE COMMONLY THE CLOUDS LIMITED THAT
POTENTIAL. BASED ON THAT I TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD RAIN. STILL
THE RISK FOR RAIN IS LOW.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THE DIGGING WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. I DID KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SAT NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR MONDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP AND COULD SUPPORT STRONGER VALUES THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY
SHOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR KMKG
AND KGRR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT KMKG COULD STAY IFR INTO TONIGHT.
INLAND IT LOOKS LIKE THE IFR SHOULD RETURN FOR KAZO...KBTL AND
KJXN AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN. WILL STILL FEATURE MVFR OR BETTER FOR
KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOSE BY TO THESE SITES AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ONE SITE BEING WATCHED IS AT HOLT ON
SYCAMORE CREEK. THIS SITE IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER... THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS RIVER
RISES HAVE YET TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BECOMES A
CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO
RAPIDLY ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE ON MOST
DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONUS. ACROSS UPPER MI...THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. EVEN ON THE COOLER DAYS...
TEMPS WILL BE NO LOWER THAN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAR. JUST BEYOND
THIS FCST PERIOD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A RETURN OF AN
AMPLIFIED FAR WRN NAMERICA RIDGE. THIS WILL AGAIN FORCE INCREASED
ERN NAMERICA TROFFING AND A RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. FARTHER OUT...GEM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
FAVOR BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO LATE MONTH. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE`VE
TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD PATTERN TO A WARM ONE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER (BLO NORMAL PCPN) WILL PROBABLY PERSIST NEXT WEEK AS
WELL DESPITE GOING BACK TO A COLD PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR (MUCH OF WI INTO PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AT 25 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL PCPN
SINCE JAN 1). THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN MAY OCCUR LATE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A COLDER PATTERN...BUT EVEN THAT PCPN DOESN`T LOOK
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
BEGINNING WED...FOLLOWING COLD FROPA TODAY...WED WILL BE A DRY/MUCH
COOLER DAY...COOLEST ACROSS THE N AND E WITH GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID 30S WILL BE THE RULE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONE ITEM OF POSSIBLE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO START THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY W OF UPPER MI...CLOSER
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NCNTRL MN AT 12Z WED.
WED NIGHT/THU...WAA DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES
RIDGE SHIFTING E TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE WAA/RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR COLUMN
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR N OF UPPER
MI IN ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WARMING
THU...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...EVEN SHALLOW MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST TO RISE TOWARD 50F. COOLEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS OFF THE
ICY WATERS.
FRI/SAT...SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE NE PACIFIC INTO BC THU IS
FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT IN RESPONSE TO BRIEF RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM IN WRN CANADA. JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE...WEAKER ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU
NIGHT/FRI. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELD UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT
WOULD SEEM BETTER POTENTIAL OF PCPN WILL OCCUR N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THUS N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -RA TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI. MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR FRI
NIGHT AS MAIN WAVE AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS REACH 140M WITH MAX PASSING ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN
DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SCHC/CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN CHANGING TO
-SHSN APPEAR WARRANTED FRI NIGHT/SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO MAX HEIGHT FALLS. IT WILL TURN
NOTABLY COOLER FOR SAT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C UNDER
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LWR 30S TO AROUND 40F...
WARMEST SCNTRL.
WAA QUICKLY KICKS IN AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN UNDER A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME WHICH BRINGS THE WRN CANADIAN RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. BY SUN MORNING...850MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL BE
BACK UP TO 0C E TO 3C W...AND THEN 3 TO 8C BY SUN EVENING UNDER
STRENGTHENING S TO SW WINDS. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WELL N OF HERE...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. TEMPS SUN WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.
MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR A FEW DAYS...
SEVERAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 10 TO 15C MON.
HOWEVER...TEMP FCST WILL HINGE ON SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATE ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING WHILE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN EARLY HIGHS IN
THE 40S WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING. GFS/ECMWF HAVEN`T BEEN CONSISENT ON
FRONTAL TIMING WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE INTO
THE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE IS A TREND FOR A FASTER FROPA WITH THE
00Z RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH AN AVERAGING OF RECENT RUNS
WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS MOSTLY MID 40S TO MID 50S. SAME METHODOLOGY
GOES FOR POPS WHICH WILL BE THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. COLDER AIR
ARRIVING AFTER FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD
AIR DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE
RESULTS IN A DOWNSTREAM TAP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN
TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WL
CONTINUE LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS LOW-LVL JET MAX WORKS
ACROSS AREA BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING GETS GOING. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY
AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS OFF
THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE SFC. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WE LOSE
DIURNAL MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE ON MOST
DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONUS. ACROSS UPPER MI...THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. EVEN ON THE COOLER DAYS...
TEMPS WILL BE NO LOWER THAN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAR. JUST BEYOND
THIS FCST PERIOD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A RETURN OF AN
AMPLIFIED FAR WRN NAMERICA RIDGE. THIS WILL AGAIN FORCE INCREASED
ERN NAMERICA TROFFING AND A RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. FARTHER OUT...GEM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
FAVOR BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO LATE MONTH. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE`VE
TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD PATTERN TO A WARM ONE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER (BLO NORMAL PCPN) WILL PROBABLY PERSIST NEXT WEEK AS
WELL DESPITE GOING BACK TO A COLD PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR (MUCH OF WI INTO PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AT 25 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL PCPN
SINCE JAN 1). THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN MAY OCCUR LATE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A COLDER PATTERN...BUT EVEN THAT PCPN DOESN`T LOOK
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
BEGINNING WED...FOLLOWING COLD FROPA TODAY...WED WILL BE A DRY/MUCH
COOLER DAY...COOLEST ACROSS THE N AND E WITH GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID 30S WILL BE THE RULE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONE ITEM OF POSSIBLE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO START THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY W OF UPPER MI...CLOSER
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NCNTRL MN AT 12Z WED.
WED NIGHT/THU...WAA DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES
RIDGE SHIFTING E TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE WAA/RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR COLUMN
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR N OF UPPER
MI IN ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WARMING
THU...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...EVEN SHALLOW MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST TO RISE TOWARD 50F. COOLEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS OFF THE
ICY WATERS.
FRI/SAT...SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE NE PACIFIC INTO BC THU IS
FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT IN RESPONSE TO BRIEF RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM IN WRN CANADA. JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE...WEAKER ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU
NIGHT/FRI. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELD UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT
WOULD SEEM BETTER POTENTIAL OF PCPN WILL OCCUR N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THUS N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -RA TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI. MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR FRI
NIGHT AS MAIN WAVE AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS REACH 140M WITH MAX PASSING ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN
DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SCHC/CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN CHANGING TO
-SHSN APPEAR WARRANTED FRI NIGHT/SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO MAX HEIGHT FALLS. IT WILL TURN
NOTABLY COOLER FOR SAT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C UNDER
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LWR 30S TO AROUND 40F...
WARMEST SCNTRL.
WAA QUICKLY KICKS IN AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN UNDER A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME WHICH BRINGS THE WRN CANADIAN RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. BY SUN MORNING...850MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL BE
BACK UP TO 0C E TO 3C W...AND THEN 3 TO 8C BY SUN EVENING UNDER
STRENGTHENING S TO SW WINDS. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WELL N OF HERE...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. TEMPS SUN WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.
MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR A FEW DAYS...
SEVERAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 10 TO 15C MON.
HOWEVER...TEMP FCST WILL HINGE ON SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATE ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING WHILE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN EARLY HIGHS IN
THE 40S WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING. GFS/ECMWF HAVEN`T BEEN CONSISENT ON
FRONTAL TIMING WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE INTO
THE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE IS A TREND FOR A FASTER FROPA WITH THE
00Z RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH AN AVERAGING OF RECENT RUNS
WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS MOSTLY MID 40S TO MID 50S. SAME METHODOLOGY
GOES FOR POPS WHICH WILL BE THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. COLDER AIR
ARRIVING AFTER FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD
AIR DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE
RESULTS IN A DOWNSTREAM TAP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN
TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE
SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
343 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE...ALLOWING ONLY QUICK GLANCING SHOTS OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO -
6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MORE
LIKELY HANG UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE
LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY ACROSS THE LAND AREAS. SHOULD JUST
END UP BEING A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL START OUT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO -9C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ICE HAS OPENED DRAMATICALLY. THIS COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN W-SW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO POSSIBLY RISE TO CLOSE TO +10C MONDAY
/ABOVE +10C IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES/ WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE
SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO ON TUE. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
LOW PRES OVER E CNTRL SASK. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME ISOLD READINGS
AROUND 50. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI TEMPS HAVE REMAINED
CLOSER TO 40.
TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE.
HOWEVER...SW GRADIENT FLOW AND MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS AOA
FREEZING IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND.
TUESDAY...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-
6C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO
925-900 MB...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER ALBEDO IN
THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING. HOWEVER...DOWNWIND
FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S FROM
THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE...ALLOWING ONLY QUICK GLANCING SHOTS OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO -
6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MORE
LIKELY HANG UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE
LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY ACROSS THE LAND AREAS. SHOULD JUST
END UP BEING A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL START OUT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO -9C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ICE HAS OPENED DRAMATICALLY. THIS COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN W-SW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO POSSIBLY RISE TO CLOSE TO +10C MONDAY
/ABOVE +10C IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES/ WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE
SFC. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE
FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN GULF
COAST REGION WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MS. DRIER AIR ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOUGHER TO OVERCOME THAN PREVIOUSLY
SUGGESTED BY HRRR GUIDANCE IN THE PINE BELT REGION...AND THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST SE OF THE AREA
THIS AFTN. BUT CONTINUED STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA AND
LARGER RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING INLAND TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO...THE
EASTWARD SHIFT IN SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS RESULTING IN A QUICKER END
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER MEXICO...A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
DEEP LAYER AIR (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THERE TO BE A LULL IN PCPN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY THEN. POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
/EC/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COME THURSDAY MORNING A VERY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER MOST OF AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE GREATER RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. PWS WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST
OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DECREASING POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING OCCUR OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WAS MOVING INTO THE
KHBG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED THUNDER THERE UP TO KMEI WITH
JUST SHOWERS AT THE JACKSON SITES AND KGTR. CIGS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BUT MVFR MUCH OF THE TIME. LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
DROP TO IFR AT MOST SITES.
VSBY WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
FOG. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 65 60 72 / 87 70 79 86
MERIDIAN 60 68 60 73 / 97 71 65 85
VICKSBURG 55 65 59 72 / 71 59 85 90
HATTIESBURG 61 73 63 73 / 87 74 67 71
NATCHEZ 57 65 60 72 / 79 66 89 90
GREENVILLE 51 64 56 67 / 35 33 73 90
GREENWOOD 53 65 57 71 / 62 49 72 90
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ051-052-
056>058-063>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/22/SW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1021 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN OVERALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG A NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF AN IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ANOMALOUS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FOR EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION AND THE NEXT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND
INCREASE RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL/FLASH FLOODING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE PORTRAYS BANDS OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTN
WHERE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY EVNG. STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH KDGX/KLIX VWP
INDICATING 30-40KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT HAZARD GRAPHICS HANDLE THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED RIGHT NOW. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS THROUGH 12Z
WED. VSBY WILL BE RELATED TO PERIODS OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DURING BREAKS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT WHERE/WHEN THEY WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES. /SW/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE ON PRECIP COVERAGE...AMOUNTS AND IT ANY FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
I WILL SAY THE FORECAST IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD AS TRYING TO NARROW
DOWN ANY LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS VERY TOUGH.
AS OF 4 AM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR LLQ WITH TWO
NOTICEABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST IS JUST N OF I-20
WHICH DEFINES THE LOWER 60 DEWPTS AND THE OTHER DOWN AROUND BTR TO
NEW WHICH SEPARATES THE MID/UPPER 60 DEWPTS. THIS STRUCTURE IS
PROMOTING A STRONG WAA REGIME WITH HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST OFF
THE SFC. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A LARGE PRECIP AREA OVER THE N HALF
WITH A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIP IN THE SW. THIS AREA IN THE SW
IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE CHALLENGE COMES IN HOW ALL THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO MID MORNING AND THEN WHAT WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND CONVERGENCE WILL WANE SUBSTANTIALLY BY 14-15 AS THE BETTER
MID/UPPER SUPPORT LIFT OUT. HI-RES GUID AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR TERM
DATA SHOW THIS AND ALL SHOW THE CURRENT PRECIP CONFIGURATION
BREAKING DOWN WITH A REALLY DIFFUSE/UNORGANIZED LOOK TO THINGS BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC
INFLUENCES ON PRECIP WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THIS MORNING
AND WHAT WILL DRIVE THINGS WILL BE THERMODYNAMIC/MESO-SCALE
INFLUENCES. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE LARGE
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WITH OUR REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD.
EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS TIME ARE FOR A CONVERGENT BAND OR TWO OF
CONVECTION TO GET GOING OVER SE LA AND SPREAD N/NE INTO THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA. EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH LOOKS TO LINGER INTO PART OF THE EVENING.
AS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE LOW AS
MORE NEG FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT. THE ONLY FEW POSITIVES ARE MID 60S
DEWPTS AND SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE OF 500-1200 J/KG. THIS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS
AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 5-12 KFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...THE NEGATIVES
ARE MORE NUMEROUS. THE MAIN THING IS THE CORE OF THE LIFT IS EXITING
THE AREA...LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850-500 MB WINDS ARE ERRATIC WITH
SOME (VEER/BACK/VEER) FLOW WHICH IS DISRUPTIVE TO UPDRAFTS...MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR EARLY MAR WITH AN OVERALL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LIMITED
OUTLOOK AS THE INSTABILITY EXPECTATIONS AND APPEARANCE OF SOME
DECENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM THE HRRR FIT THE SITUATION.
MORE QUESTION MARKS FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF WED. THE LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR MORE OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. I TRENDED POPS/WX TO
REFLECT THIS. BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS
ACTIVITY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON LINGERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST OVER THE SE HALF AS
REPETITIVE STORMS COULD BE ADDING UP THE TOTALS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON WED INTO WED NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE NEXT SOLID
CHUCK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACH THE REGION. THE RESPONSE WILL
BE INCREASING WAA AND OVERALL PRECIP AS A SFC INVERTED TROUGH GETS
ORGANIZED AND THEN A SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THAT FEATURE. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT BY WED EVENING WITH
SOME HEAVY PRECIP ELEMENTS TAKING SHAPE AS DEEP MOISTURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. /CME/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COME THURSDAY MORNING A VERY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER MOST OF AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE GREATER RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. PWS WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST
OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DECREASING POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING OCCUR OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
450 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE ON PRECIP COVERAGE...AMOUNTS AND IT ANY FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
I WILL SAY THE FORECAST IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD AS TRYING TO NARROW
DOWN ANY LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS VERY TOUGH.
AS OF 4 AM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR LLQ WITH TWO
NOTICEABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST IS JUST N OF I-20
WHICH DEFINES THE LOWER 60 DEWPTS AND THE OTHER DOWN AROUND BTR TO
NEW WHICH SEPARATES THE MID/UPPER 60 DEWPTS. THIS STRUCTURE IS
PROMOTING A STRONG WAA REGIME WITH HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST OFF
THE SFC. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A LARGE PRECIP AREA OVER THE N HALF
WITH A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIP IN THE SW. THIS AREA IN THE SW
IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE CHALLENGE COMES IN HOW ALL THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO MID MORNING AND THEN WHAT WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND CONVERGENCE WILL WANE SUBSTANTIALLY BY 14-15 AS THE BETTER
MID/UPPER SUPPORT LIFT OUT. HI-RES GUID AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR TERM
DATA SHOW THIS AND ALL SHOW THE CURRENT PRECIP CONFIGURATION
BREAKING DOWN WITH A REALLY DIFFUSE/UNORGANIZED LOOK TO THINGS BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC
INFLUENCES ON PRECIP WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THIS MORNING
AND WHAT WILL DRIVE THINGS WILL BE THERMODYNAMIC/MESO-SCALE
INFLUENCES. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE LARGE
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WITH OUR REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD.
EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS TIME ARE FOR A CONVERGENT BAND OR TWO OF
CONVECTION TO GET GOING OVER SE LA AND SPREAD N/NE INTO THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA. EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH LOOKS TO LINGER INTO PART OF THE EVENING.
AS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE LOW AS
MORE NEG FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT. THE ONLY FEW POSITIVES ARE MID 60S
DEWPTS AND SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE OF 500-1200 J/KG. THIS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS
AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 5-12 KFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...THE NEGATIVES
ARE MORE NUMEROUS. THE MAIN THING IS THE CORE OF THE LIFT IS EXITING
THE AREA...LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850-500 MB WINDS ARE ERRATIC WITH
SOME (VEER/BACK/VEER) FLOW WHICH IS DISRUPTIVE TO UPDRAFTS...MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR EARLY MAR WITH AN OVERALL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LIMITED
OUTLOOK AS THE INSTABILITY EXPECTATIONS AND APPEARANCE OF SOME
DECENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM THE HRRR FIT THE SITUATION.
MORE QUESTION MARKS FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF WED. THE LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR MORE OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. I TRENDED POPS/WX TO
REFLECT THIS. BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS
ACTIVITY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON LINGERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST OVER THE SE HALF AS
REPETITIVE STORMS COULD BE ADDING UP THE TOTALS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON WED INTO WED NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE NEXT SOLID
CHUCK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACH THE REGION. THE RESPONSE WILL
BE INCREASING WAA AND OVERALL PRECIP AS A SFC INVERTED TROUGH GETS
ORGANIZED AND THEN A SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THAT FEATURE. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT BY WED EVENING WITH
SOME HEAVY PRECIP ELEMENTS TAKING SHAPE AS DEEP MOISTURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. /CME/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COME THURSDAY MORNING A VERY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER MOST OF AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE GREATER RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. PWS WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST
OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DECREASING POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING OCCUR OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING WITH
A TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE AREA WARMS LATER THIS MORNING. I WILL
TIME THE PRECIP IN/OUT THIS MORNING AND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BE MORE
GENERAL WITH THINGS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH A STALLING SFC BOUNDARY
AROUND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING.
/CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 75 59 69 61 / 98 97 73 79
MERIDIAN 76 62 74 62 / 92 100 77 80
VICKSBURG 72 55 67 59 / 86 69 49 75
HATTIESBURG 76 62 77 64 / 93 88 79 81
NATCHEZ 74 57 67 59 / 93 81 64 80
GREENVILLE 69 51 64 56 / 50 31 25 59
GREENWOOD 70 54 67 58 / 91 69 42 65
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/22/CME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
908 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MORNING UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
FRIEDERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
DRY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 600 MB OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CLOSE TO 700 MB OVER THE E. STILL LOOKING
FOR NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES AT KBIL. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE HIGHER
AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KBIL W. EXPECTING A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO AROUND +12 DEGREES C.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON WED AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
IT. A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT. ENERGY
IN THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. WED WILL REMAIN DRY AND THEN
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WED
NIGHT. GFS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND...SO HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z...THEN HIGHER POPS AFTER 06Z. BROUGHT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR E AS GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THUNDER. EXPECTING JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AS THE
ENSEMBLES KEPT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH.
WED WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDING TRENDS AND THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. KBIL AND KMLS WILL
HAVE NEAR-RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL BE WINDY W OF KBIL ON WED DUE TO
THE LEE TROUGH. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MIXED...AND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH EXTENDED
MODELS REMAINING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
IS NOT TOO STRONG. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD FRIDAY...AND BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND PAVES THE WAY FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LEE SIDE
TROFFING WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM...SETTING UP GUSTY
WINDS...WHICH MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN THAN THE PRECIP.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...DROPPING DAY
TIME HIGHS FOR INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TO START THE
PERIOD...AND MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 041/072 042/062 039/064 037/070 046/072 038/051
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 11/B 32/W
LVM 064 042/068 043/058 037/062 037/066 048/073 036/052
0/U 00/N 43/W 21/B 00/B 11/B 32/W
HDN 069 036/073 038/063 037/066 036/071 040/072 037/054
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 32/W
MLS 064 036/071 038/060 038/062 036/069 044/070 037/054
0/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 00/U 01/B 21/B
4BQ 065 034/071 036/061 036/063 033/070 038/071 036/053
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 00/U 00/B 22/W
BHK 062 033/068 035/058 035/060 032/065 037/068 034/048
0/U 00/U 01/B 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B
SHR 063 034/067 036/060 037/062 031/067 040/071 037/052
0/U 00/U 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
306 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
DRY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 600 MB OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CLOSE TO 700 MB OVER THE E. STILL LOOKING
FOR NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES AT KBIL. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE HIGHER
AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KBIL W. EXPECTING A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO AROUND +12 DEGREES C.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON WED AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
IT. A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT. ENERGY
IN THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. WED WILL REMAIN DRY AND THEN
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WED
NIGHT. GFS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND...SO HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z...THEN HIGHER POPS AFTER 06Z. BROUGHT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR E AS GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THUNDER. EXPECTING JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AS THE
ENSEMBLES KEPT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH.
WED WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDING TRENDS AND THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. KBIL AND KMLS WILL
HAVE NEAR-RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL BE WINDY W OF KBIL ON WED DUE TO
THE LEE TROUGH. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MIXED...AND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH EXTENDED
MODELS REMAINING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
IS NOT TOO STRONG. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD FRIDAY...AND BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND PAVES THE WAY FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LEE SIDE
TROFFING WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM...SETTING UP GUSTY
WINDS...WHICH MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN THAN THE PRECIP.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...DROPPING DAY
TIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TO START THE
PERIOD...AND MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 041/072 042/062 039/064 037/070 046/072 038/051
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 11/B 32/W
LVM 064 042/068 043/058 037/062 037/066 048/073 036/052
0/U 00/N 43/W 21/B 00/B 11/B 32/W
HDN 069 036/073 038/063 037/066 036/071 040/072 037/054
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 32/W
MLS 064 036/071 038/060 038/062 036/069 044/070 037/054
0/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 00/U 01/B 21/B
4BQ 065 034/071 036/061 036/063 033/070 038/071 036/053
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 00/U 00/B 22/W
BHK 062 033/068 035/058 035/060 032/065 037/068 034/048
0/U 00/U 01/B 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B
SHR 063 034/067 036/060 037/062 031/067 040/071 037/052
0/U 00/U 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
GENERALLY THIS QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG POLAR
JET IN SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE RAP HAS BEEN REPRESENTING THIS
FEATURE WELL HOWEVER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD IT
TOO WEAK AND TOO SLOW. USING THE RAP SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW CLOUDS GENERATED BY THIS WAVE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN THE PAST HOUR AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPED IN THE COLUMBUS-NORFOLK AREAS. THIS WAVE ALSO BRINGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT TODAY...HOWEVER WE MAINLY EXPECT THIS TO
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. ACTUALLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE BRIEFLY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. 850 MB AIR
ALSO INCREASES A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH GOOD MIXING ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE LOWER 70S PREDICTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORDS SEEM SAFE ALTHOUGH THE RECORD HIGH IN
NORFOLK ON WEDNESDAY OF 74 MAY BE THREATENED. THESE ARE GOOD
PATTERNS TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OF
WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS
BUT VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK AND AIRMASS IS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER BASED ON SOME CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIRMASS...THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 60.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND
GFS WITH A REBOUND IN 850 TEMPERATURES BACK TO VALUES SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING UPPER 60S
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
GENERALLY THIS QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG POLAR
JET IN SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE RAP HAS BEEN REPRESENTING THIS
FEATURE WELL HOWEVER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD IT
TOO WEAK AND TOO SLOW. USING THE RAP SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW CLOUDS GENERATED BY THIS WAVE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN THE PAST HOUR AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPED IN THE COLUMBUS-NORFOLK AREAS. THIS WAVE ALSO BRINGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT TODAY...HOWEVER WE MAINLY EXPECT THIS TO
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. ACTUALLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE BRIEFLY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. 850 MB AIR
ALSO INCREASES A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH GOOD MIXING ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE LOWER 70S PREDICTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORDS SEEM SAFE ALTHOUGH THE RECORD HIGH IN
NORFOLK ON WEDNESDAY OF 74 MAY BE THREATENED. THESE ARE GOOD
PATTERNS TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OF
WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS
BUT VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK AND AIRMASS IS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER BASED ON SOME CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIRMASS...THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 60.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND
GFS WITH A REBOUND IN 850 TEMPERATURES BACK TO VALUES SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING UPPER 60S
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN TO THE NORTH BY TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
243 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
GENERALLY THIS QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG POLAR
JET IN SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE RAP HAS BEEN REPRESENTING THIS
FEATURE WELL HOWEVER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD IT
TOO WEAK AND TOO SLOW. USING THE RAP SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW CLOUDS GENERATED BY THIS WAVE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN THE PAST HOUR AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPED IN THE COLUMBUS-NORFOLK AREAS. THIS WAVE ALSO BRINGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT TODAY...HOWEVER WE MAINLY EXPECT THIS TO
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. ACTUALLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE BRIEFLY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. 850 MB AIR
ALSO INCREASES A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH GOOD MIXING ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE LOWER 70S PREDICTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORDS SEEM SAFE ALTHOUGH THE RECORD HIGH IN
NORFOLK ON WEDNESDAY OF 74 MAY BE THREATENED. THESE ARE GOOD
PATTERNS TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OF
WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS
BUT VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK AND AIRMASS IS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER BASED ON SOME CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIRMASS...THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 60.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND
GFS WITH A REBOUND IN 850 TEMPERATURES BACK TO VALUES SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING UPPER 60S
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1155 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO TONIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADV TO EXPIRE AT
MIDNIGHT FOR THE BRUNSWICK AND HORRY COASTS. THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED HALFWAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE ENTIRE ILM CWA BY 2-3 AM THU. INITIALLY
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH A SMALL DROP IN TEMPS TO THE 60S.
THE REAL COOL AND DRY SURGE DOES NOT PUSH ENTIRELY THRU THE ILM
CWA UNTIL DAYBREAK OR SEVERAL HRS THERE-AFTER.
BASED ON LATEST KLTX 88D TRENDS...THE PCPN HAS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND MAINLY OCCURRING WELL AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
BEST CAA SURGE WILL DROP ACROSS THE FA BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
THU. THEREFORE...HAVE NUDGED OVERNITE LOWS UPWARDS BY A DEGREE OR
3. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FURTHER DROP GOING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
THE DAYTIME THU BEFORE HOLDING STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE RAINFALL AND ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST AFTER
18Z FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH NE COUNTIES TILL FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW
60S EAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO
UPPER 50S EAST BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RISING TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES ASHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM BUT WET TO START THE PERIOD...BEFORE A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY...NO
REAL ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A COASTAL FRONT/WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 295K LEVEL WILL
INITIALLY DRIVE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WILL SHUT OFF BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY
A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
AN END TO ANY PRECIP. WHILE DRY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FROPA...COLD ADVECTION LAGS A BIT BEHIND...SO TEMPS
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...NEAR SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
THEREAFTER...NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY DESPITE 2 COLD SURGES CROSSING
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE SECOND WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER OF THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP...AND THE COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IS WEAK. STILL...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MONDAY...AND THEN AROUND CLIMO WEDNESDAY...WHILE
RISING ABOVE FOR TUESDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE
PLEASANT LATE SPRING WEATHER WITH NO TRULY COLD AIR ANYWHERE ON THE
HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SOME SEA STRATUS/FOG WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE COAST...OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE ONSET. A COLD FRONT
IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. LOOK
FOR INTERMITTENT LIGHT CONVECTION AT AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING AFTER THAT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH FALLING TEMPS...AS
WELL AS FALLING CEILINGS. IFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET TOWARD
MORNING...LIFTING BACK TO IFR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY CLIMBING TEMPS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURS WITH VFR
DEVELOPING. EARLY FRI VFR. IFR/MVFR/SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE FRI
PERSISTING INTO SAT. VFR DEVELOPING SUN AND PERSISTING INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADV FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 AM. THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THE PREDAWN THU HRS. THE
CURRENT SEA FOG WILL GET FORCED UPWARDS INTO A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FT INITIALLY...B4 FINALLY RISING HIER AND
DISBURSING AS THE NEXT COLD AIR AND DRIER SURGE BEGINS PUSHING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK THU...AND THERE-AFTER.
LOOKING AT WINDS VEERING TO THE N OVERNIGHT...AND NE AFTER
DAYBREAK THU. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYTIME THU RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIER GUSTS DURING THU.
HAVE ALSO RAISED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
MORNING THRU FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HIGH
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THU.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
ON THURS WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE THURS INTO FRI WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THURS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WE COULD SEE SCA
THRESHOLDS REACHED THURS AFTN AND NIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IS WATER TEMPERATURES AS THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD RELATIVE TO THEM. THIS COULD KEEP SCA LEVEL
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS WINDS UP
TO 25 KT BUT CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THAT LEVEL IS LOW SO AN SCA
HAS NOT BEEN RAISED ATTM. IF WINDS COME UP ENOUGH...SEAS COULD
BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO S BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS INVOF OF 15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF AROUND 4 FT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN
DURING SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS AND
ONSHORE. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SLOW VEERING TO THE SW OCCURRING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTH WINDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING LATE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AS THE ELEVATED
SW WINDS DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT...BUT THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED THANKS TO THE NW FLOW SUNDAY PUSHING THE HIGHEST SEAS
OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT WITH A
NW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT...AND THEN FALL FURTHER MONDAY TO 1-3 FT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
716 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO TONIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE TWEAKING NEEDED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. DENSE FOG ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE DECAYS...WSW-W SFC WINDS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KICK IN. THIS TRAJECTORY
IN THE WIND FIELD WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SEA FOG MOVING
ONSHORE.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW ON THE
DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA VIA LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING 88DS.
WITH AVBL CAPE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE DAYS
HEATING...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY 30-50 POPS FOR OVERNITE SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY
IS BEING ADVERTISED. PCPN WILL THIN OUT SOME AS WE PROGRESS THRU
THE EVENING AND PRE-DAWN THU HOURS. LATEST SREF INDICATES A
DIMINISHING AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN AND LOWERING POP FIELD...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST TEMPS LOOKING AOK.
PREVIOUS......................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IT`S BEEN A DAY OF EXTREMES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. INLAND TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO THE HIGHEST
READINGS OBSERVED ALL YEAR WITH A RECORD-TYING 86 DEGREES IN
FLORENCE AND A RECORD-BREAKING 84 IN WILMINGTON. IN FACT VIRTUALLY
EVERY LOCATION MORE THAN 3 OR 4 MILES INLAND REACHED 80+ DEGREES
TODAY. AT THE BEACHES IT`S BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY WITH COLD MARINE
AIR HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SPRINGMAID PIER IN MYRTLE BEACH
AND OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPERATURES RISE
OUT OF THE 50S ALL DAY!
DENSE SEA FOG...FORMED BY HUMID AIR STREAMING OVER VERY COLD
NEARSHORE WATERS...HAS AFFECTED MAINLY THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES
ALL DAY. UNTIL WINDS VEER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT I FEAR FOG
WILL SPREAD BACK ONTO THE HORRY COUNTY BEACHES THIS EVENING. I AM
PREPARING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL HORRY COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE IN PIECES. THE FIRST PIECE/LEADING EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF CHARLOTTE TO JUST SOUTH OF
ASHEBORO TO NEAR RALEIGH...WHILE A SECOND BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIE
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PIECE WILL
ACTUALLY BE DEFINED AS "THE FRONT" I AM EXPECTING FROPA IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 8-10 PM...AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
VIRTUALLY ABSENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO FAR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE WEAK AIRMASS INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AFTER
DARK ALONG THE FRONT. 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD...SO DESPITE FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
BETWEEN 850-700 MB PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT IN THE GEORGETOWN-MYRTLE BEACH AREA...TO 50-60 PERCENT
ACROSS LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
COOL ADVECTION IS NOT PRONOUNCED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MY FORECAST
LOWS ARE AT THE HIGH END OF THE MOS RANGE...AROUND 56-61 ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH 54-59 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE RAINFALL AND ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST AFTER
18Z FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH NE COUNTIES TILL FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW
60S EAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO
UPPER 50S EAST BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RISING TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES ASHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM BUT WET TO START THE PERIOD...BEFORE A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY...NO
REAL ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A COASTAL FRONT/WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 295K LEVEL WILL
INITIALLY DRIVE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WILL SHUT OFF BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY
A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
AN END TO ANY PRECIP. WHILE DRY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FROPA...COLD ADVECTION LAGS A BIT BEHIND...SO TEMPS
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...NEAR SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
THEREAFTER...NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY DESPITE 2 COLD SURGES CROSSING
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE SECOND WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER OF THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP...AND THE COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IS WEAK. STILL...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MONDAY...AND THEN AROUND CLIMO WEDNESDAY...WHILE
RISING ABOVE FOR TUESDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE
PLEASANT LATE SPRING WEATHER WITH NO TRULY COLD AIR ANYWHERE ON THE
HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SOME SEA STRATUS/FOG WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE COAST...OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE ONSET. A COLD FRONT
IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. LOOK
FOR INTERMITTENT LIGHT CONVECTION AT AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING AFTER THAT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH FALLING TEMPS...AS
WELL AS FALLING CEILINGS. IFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET TOWARD
MORNING...LIFTING BACK TO IFR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY CLIMBING TEMPS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURS WITH VFR
DEVELOPING. EARLY FRI VFR. IFR/MVFR/SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE FRI
PERSISTING INTO SAT. VFR DEVELOPING SUN AND PERSISTING INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. AS WINDS VEER FROM THE SSW TO WSW
LATER THIS EVENING...THE SEA FOG WILL BEGIN TO ATLEAST MOVE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS
BORDERING ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COASTLINE AND THE HORRY
COASTLINE FROM MYR NORTHWARD. IT WILL TAKE A DUE W OR WNW
TRAJECTORY TO FINALLY DISPERSE THE FOG AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. IT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE OVERNIGHT CFP
FOLLOWED BY CAA TO FINALLY DISPERSE THE SEA FOG ALTOGETHER ACROSS
ALL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE AREA WATERS WILL OBSERVE VEERING WINDS TONIGHT FROM
SSW TO WNW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND FROM THE N AFTER THE CFP.
SFC PG SOMEWHAT RELAXED AND WILL SUPPORT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT
WIND SPEEDS. THE SFC PG REALLY DOES NOT TIGHTEN UNTIL WELL AFTER
THE CFP...DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE BEST CAA
SURGE TO OCCUR DURING DAYTIME THU.
PREVIOUS......................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
STREAKS OF DENSE SEA FOG COVERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THE THICKEST
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEACHES...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CAPE FEAR. THIS FOG IS THE
RESULT OF HUMID AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA BEING CHILLED
DOWN TO ITS DEWPOINT BY THE VERY COLD LOCAL OCEAN WATERS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND AROUND
MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP EARLY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO VEER THIS EVENING.
SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL PUSH
SEAS EAST OF CAPE FEAR UP TOWARD 5 FEET BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
ON THURS WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE THURS INTO FRI WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THURS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WE COULD SEE SCA
THRESHOLDS REACHED THURS AFTN AND NIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IS WATER TEMPERATURES AS THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD RELATIVE TO THEM. THIS COULD KEEP SCA LEVEL
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS WINDS UP
TO 25 KT BUT CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THAT LEVEL IS LOW SO AN SCA
HAS NOT BEEN RAISED ATTM. IF WINDS COME UP ENOUGH...SEAS COULD
BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO S BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS INVOF OF 15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF AROUND 4 FT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN
DURING SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS AND
ONSHORE. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SLOW VEERING TO THE SW OCCURRING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTH WINDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING LATE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AS THE ELEVATED
SW WINDS DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT...BUT THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED THANKS TO THE NW FLOW SUNDAY PUSHING THE HIGHEST SEAS
OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT WITH A
NW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT...AND THEN FALL FURTHER MONDAY TO 1-3 FT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...WITH A
SECOND WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY SHOWING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT POOLING WAS
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD CLOSER
TO SLIGHTLY GREATER OVERALL LIFT AND MOISTURE BASED ON TRENDS FROM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE EXISTS 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING SUCH THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAY BE LARGELY DRY
OVERNIGHT. WRF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS...AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATER CLOSER TO THE JET ALOFT TO OUR NORTH.
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SEEMS QUESTIONABLE SIMPLY BASED ON THE
INCREASE OF 850MB AND 925MB OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTIVE OF MIXING AND
MORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. SREF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS
BULLISH ON PROBABILITIES OF FOG PARTICULARLY EAST OF U.S. 1...AND
THE LATEST HRRR WRF SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG BEGINNING TOWARD
06Z SOUTHEAST OF KFAY AND KGSB. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATING A
GENEROUS LOW CLOUD PRESENCE LATE DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES THAT ARE MUCH
HIGHER THAN EVEN THAT MODEL/S FORECAST PROBABILITIES FOR FOG.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE INCREASED WINDS THAT OCCUR AT 850MB AND 925MB OVERNIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE DURING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED WITH THE
TIMING...SUCH THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WRF ARW AND NMM GUIDANCE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...TOWARD U.S. 1 OR SO BY MID-
TO-LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 IN THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE DAY. FORCING DOES NOT SEEM GREAT WITH THE FRONT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH THE JET TO OUR NORTH AND THE DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL
WIND...BUT THE NAM DOES FORECAST AROUND 300J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6C/KM AND 6.5C/KM
WHICH IN MARCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDER. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST MID-LEVELS DRYING SO THAT BY LATE AT NIGHT
WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT KAFP TO KCTZ.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE DIFFICULT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE DIMINISHING OF LOW CLOUDS. LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND WITH EARLIER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND WITH A BLEND OR
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE
FRONTAL TIMING IS LATER ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET. HIGHS AROUND
70 IN THE TRIAD TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 80 OVER THE FAR SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S TOWARD KIXA TO 50 TO 55 IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE ATTAINED MARCH 11...CONSIDERING THE FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES THINK THE BETTER CHANCE OF THAT...IF IT WOULD
OCCUR...WOULD BE AT KFAY WHERE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DATE
IS 62 SET IN 1925.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA INITALLY EARLY
ON THURSDAY AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. DRY AIR SURGING SOUTH AND
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS
EARLY EVOLUTION OF THE DAMMING SCENARIO. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF COULD
BE SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUN...WHICH WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH H85 FLOW SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT
BY MORNING...WITH POPS GRADUATED TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST.
DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE PROLONGED INTO SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS
IS DIABATICALLY COOLED...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE DAMMING IS AT ITS PEAK. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEARLY STEADY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST AND ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
AND IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK TO
SCOUR OUT THE DENSE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EARLY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE WEDGE AS A SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE
OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP HIGHS NORTHWEST IN THE 50S...WITH MID 60S
SOUTHEAST. A MORE NORTHERLY POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
ZONE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. UPPER TROF FINALLY ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS EXTENDED DAMMING EVENT ARE A TOUGH
CALL...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGHOUT THE PEAK OF THE DAMMING IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA...WEIGHTED HEAVILY IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z TO 08Z. FOR THE FORECAST WILL HAVE ALL SITES
IFR... BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE CEILINGS TO COME IN LOW
MVFR BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ON NAM AND GFS
MODELS SOUNDINGS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT WEDNESDAY...WITH
PREVAILING CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
15Z. WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT MIXING TO LIMIT FOG. FOR THE 18Z VALID TAF FORECAST...
ONLY HAVE THE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS SIX MILES IN LIGHT FOG. IF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WERE TO FORM...THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE SREF MODEL PROBABILITIES OF SUCH ARE HIGHEST
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS THE WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WHILE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WARM
FRONT OVER THE NORTH PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WAS MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH AND FROM 1.1 TO JUST OVER 1.25 INCHES. UNDER THE RIDGE
ALOFT WEAK DIFFLUENCE WAS NOTED AND FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THOUGH THE TREND FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS FOR THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REGIME OF LIMITED LIFT AND MODEST
MOISTURE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE YADKIN
RIVER AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST OVERALL MOISTURE THIS MORNING...WITH MID-
LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE SUCH THAT FOR THE DAY THE RAP HAS NO QPF
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE...
AND HAVE NOTED IN THE FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARD THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND
HAVE RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD KFAY WHILE LOWERING THEM
THE SAME AMOUNT TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE THICKER WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RELATIVE TO THE
REST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS IN GENERAL SHOULD OFFSET MIXING...BUT A FEW
GUST AROUND 20KT ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING. -DJF
TONIGHT...A MOSTLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE PROBABILITY OF STRATUS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE NEAR SOME RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. -22
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THER FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND A COUPLE
DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...EXPECT TO FINALLY SEE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD. WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.5"...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGE
ZONE...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MAINS SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED
TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OLD MEXICO...AND A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WILL PROMOTE THE STRENGTHENING OF A CANADIAN/
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH...TO AROUND 1035 MB...ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU.
THE HIGH...AND PRECEDING SECONDARY COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THU...WILL CONSEQUENTLY HELP FORCE THE PRIMARY
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD AND
LARGELY OUT OF CENTRAL NC. EVEN THE ASSOCIATED H85 FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ROUGHLY SERVE AS THE NORTHEASTERN BOUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR RAIN ATOP THE CANADIAN/CP HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BELOW...IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
ROUGHLY TO AN ARC FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES OF NC...WITH NOTABLE DRYING -IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY AIR
SFC RIDGE- IN THE LOWEST 5000 OR SO FT...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT
ARC. AS SUCH...MOSTLY DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
THU...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR RIDGE...RANGING TO SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN FROM NE TO SW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA.
THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THU
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY LATE...AND MORE SO FRI...WHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACCELERATES AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GRADUAL NEARER APPROACH/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND FOLLOWING ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON
THE HEELS OF THE LEAD CANADIAN HIGH AND BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND;
AND WHILE THAT AIRMASS WILL NOT DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AT
OUR LATITUDE (WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC COLD/DRY HOLDING OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION)...A LONG FETCH/FEED
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A
MODIFIED VERSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE VA
AND NC PIEDMONTS FRI. THAT PROCESS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE ATOP THE HIGH(S)...WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG (CLASSICAL...DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED)
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FRI-FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY THAT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THU
NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE WEDGE SAT-SAT
NIGHT...OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWEST LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT
THAT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE ABOVE AVG RANGE THROUGH
SAT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PERIOD SUN-MON...WHEN DRY AND MILDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. LONGER
RANGE PROGS SIGNAL A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH AND BLOCKING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREENLAND - A PATTERN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NW FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EAST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENT
CENTERED AROUND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND VFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY....AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH PRECIP JUST TO THE
WEST MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OF NC.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES IMPACT TERMINALS FROM RALEIGH
WEST TO KGSO/KINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...LOW
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LIGHT RAIN. ONCE
THIS BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...A 5-10KT
SOUTHERLY WIND (GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT) WILL DOMINATE AND MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR
KFAY AFTER 18Z IS REALLY THE ONLY THREAT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS
LOW.
TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE BY 00Z...BUT A STEADY 5-10KT WIND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRATUS (LIKELY
IFR) IS EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING
KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AND KRDU BY 06-09Z.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS LOWER AT KGSO/KINT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST SOME LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE BY 12Z.
LONG TERM: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES....ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
741 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PARTIAL SUNSHINE APPEARS IN THE CARDS
TODAY FOR NE SC AND SE NC BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MAY HELP THE CAUSE AND CONSUME A
PERCENTAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDINESS. THE VARIABLE COVERAGE WILL
COMPLICATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BUT OVERALL A VERY MILD
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...RUNNING 7-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH
10TH AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK FOR
SEVERAL OF OUR INTERIOR SC ZONES TO REACH 80. NO CHANCE OF MAX
TEMP RECORDS BROKEN...MOST RESIDE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
NO APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT TO TRIGGER RAIN GENERATION BUT WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE OF SC THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
MAY GUIDE SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. THIS
MECHANISM WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT
THE COAST WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE FROM
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SPLIT
FLOW DRIVES A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO
NVA AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA. I
MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS WITH SUCH SUBTLE FEATURES...THE NEW
CYCLES COULD SHOW SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. POPS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. THE
FORCING...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEED TO WAIT ON BETTER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WHICH ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A WEAK AND MORE FLEETING WEDGE THURSDAY WHICH MANIFESTS IN
THE MET NUMBERS WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY SCALING BACK FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND I REMOVED POPS FOR THESE DAYS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A
QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE WEEKEND VIA STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
THE CONTINUING SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WITH THE DRYING NORTHWEST
FLOW COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS 2500-3500 FEET OCCURRING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AT TAF TIME...OTHERWISE VFR. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT EVEN LOWER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS OFFSHORE DEVELOP.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING TODAY ALONG THE COAST. ADD TO THIS SHOWERS
OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE MARINE
AIRMASS. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG. COULD BEGIN SEEING SOME OF THIS STRATUS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT KCRE/KMYR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIFR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG APPEAR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR
STRATUS COULD ALSO OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT BY MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIKELY TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF -RA/BR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND FRIENDLY SEAS THIS MORNING
WITH SEA HEIGHTS 2 FEET OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONSHORE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH WILL INCREASE S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN THESE SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND VEERING TO SSW-SW. SEAS 2 FT THIS MORNING BUILDING TO 2-3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. SEA SPECTRUM A MIX OF SE WAVES
1-2 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND ESE WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EVERY 9
SECONDS. NO TSTMS EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DOT THE
WATERS ALONG WITH PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG AND MIST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE PATTERN
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO REALITY THOUGH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETS UP A NORTHEAST FLOW OF
15-20 KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY LATER THURSDAY TO 20-25
KNOTS. BY FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DROP BACK SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MODEST ENOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3
FEET. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND END UP WELL
INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION DRIVING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY
WITH 10-15 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS
DRAMATICALLY AND TEN KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD SUFFICE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT VALUES PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY SEAS DROP TO 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PARTIAL SUNSHINE APPEARS IN THE CARDS
TODAY FOR NE SC AND SE NC BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MAY HELP THE CAUSE AND CONSUME A
PERCENTAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDINESS. THE VARIABLE COVERAGE WILL
COMPLICATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BUT OVERALL A VERY MILD
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...RUNNING 7-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH
10TH AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK FOR
SEVERAL OF OUR INTERIOR SC ZONES TO REACH 80. NO CHANCE OF MAX
TEMP RECORDS BROKEN...MOST RESIDE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
NO APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT TO TRIGGER RAIN GENERATION BUT WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE OF SC THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
MAY GUIDE SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. THIS
MECHANISM WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT
THE COAST WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE FROM
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SPLIT
FLOW DRIVES A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO
NVA AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA. I
MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS WITH SUCH SUBTLE FEATURES...THE NEW
CYCLES COULD SHOW SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. POPS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. THE
FORCING...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEED TO WAIT ON BETTER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WHICH ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A WEAK AND MORE FLEETING WEDGE THURSDAY WHICH MANIFESTS IN
THE MET NUMBERS WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY SCALING BACK FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND I REMOVED POPS FOR THESE DAYS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A
QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE WEEKEND VIA STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
THE CONTINUING SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WITH THE DRYING NORTHWEST
FLOW COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS 2500-3500 FEET OCCURRING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AT TAF TIME...OTHERWISE VFR. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT EVEN LOWER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS OFFSHORE DEVELOP.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING TODAY ALONG THE COAST. ADD TO THIS SHOWERS
OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE MARINE
AIRMASS. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG. COULD BEGIN SEEING SOME OF THIS STRATUS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT KCRE/KMYR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIFR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG APPEAR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR
STRATUS COULD ALSO OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT BY MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIKELY TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF -RA/BR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND FRIENDLY SEAS THIS MORNING
WITH SEA HEIGHTS 2 FEET OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONSHORE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH WILL INCREASE S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN THESE SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND VEERING TO SSW-SW. SEAS 2 FT THIS MORNING BUILDING TO 2-3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. SEA SPECTRUM A MIX OF SE WAVES
1-2 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND ESE WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EVERY 9
SECONDS. NO TSTMS EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DOT THE
WATERS ALONG WITH PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG AND MIST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE PATTERN
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO REALITY THOUGH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETS UP A NORTHEAST FLOW OF
15-20 KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY LATER THURSDAY TO 20-25
KNOTS. BY FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DROP BACK SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MODEST ENOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3
FEET. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND END UP WELL
INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION DRIVING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY
WITH 10-15 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS
DRAMATICALLY AND TEN KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD SUFFICE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT VALUES PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY SEAS DROP TO 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS DRIVING PRECIP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS FROM THE LIFTS ACROSS THE LOW-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP IS
STILL VERY LIGHT ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST WARM ADVECTION
AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY DRY BELOW 7000 FT PER 00Z KGSO
RAOB. THE RAP STILL SHOWS THE BEST SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
295-305K LAYER FROM NOW THROUGH 15Z...THROUGH THE FLOW IS WEAK AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT REALLY DOESNT LOOK THAT GREAT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS RADAR ECHOES WILL EXPAND IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
AREAS WEST OF US 1 WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
TODAY...ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC SURGE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING..MODELS ACTUALLY PROJECT A MOSTLY DRY DESPITE PW
VALUES STEADILY INCREASING ABOVE ONE INCH AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AND AXIS OF BEST DEEP MOISTURE
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THERES REALLY NO FORCING OF ASCENT
OR INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC. HI-RES WRFS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE GRAND STRAND AREA OF SC AND SOUTHEASTERN
NC...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ENSHROUDING THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH
TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
THUS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ACTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1000-
850MB THICKNESS OF AROUND 1355M SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE ONCE THE SUN BREAK OUT. THE MAIN
QUESTION ON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LIGHT PRECIP THIS
MORNING AND OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT HEATING. WILL SHOWS A RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE PROBABILITY OF STRATUS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE NEAR SOME RECORD HI
MIN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THER FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND A COUPLE
DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...EXPECT TO FINALLY SEE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD. WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.5"...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGE
ZONE...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MAINS SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED
TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OLD MEXICO...AND A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WILL PROMOTE THE STRENGTHENING OF A CANADIAN/
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH...TO AROUND 1035 MB...ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU.
THE HIGH...AND PRECEDING SECONDARY COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THU...WILL CONSEQUENTLY HELP FORCE THE PRIMARY
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD AND
LARGELY OUT OF CENTRAL NC. EVEN THE ASSOCIATED H85 FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ROUGHLY SERVE AS THE NORTHEASTERN BOUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR RAIN ATOP THE CANADIAN/CP HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BELOW...IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
ROUGHLY TO AN ARC FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES OF NC...WITH NOTABLE DRYING -IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY AIR
SFC RIDGE- IN THE LOWEST 5000 OR SO FT...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT
ARC. AS SUCH...MOSTLY DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
THU...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR RIDGE...RANGING TO SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN FROM NE TO SW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA.
THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THU
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY LATE...AND MORE SO FRI...WHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACCELERATES AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GRADUAL NEARER APPROACH/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND FOLLOWING ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON
THE HEELS OF THE LEAD CANADIAN HIGH AND BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND;
AND WHILE THAT AIRMASS WILL NOT DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AT
OUR LATITUDE (WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC COLD/DRY HOLDING OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION)...A LONG FETCH/FEED
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A
MODIFIED VERSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE VA
AND NC PIEDMONTS FRI. THAT PROCESS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE ATOP THE HIGH(S)...WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG (CLASSICAL...DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED)
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FRI-FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY THAT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THU
NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE WEDGE SAT-SAT
NIGHT...OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWEST LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT
THAT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE ABOVE AVG RANGE THROUGH
SAT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PERIOD SUN-MON...WHEN DRY AND MILDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. LONGER
RANGE PROGS SIGNAL A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH AND BLOCKING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREENLAND - A PATTERN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NW FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EAST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENT
CENTERED AROUND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND VFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY....AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH PRECIP JUST TO THE
WEST MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OF NC.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES IMPACT TERMINALS FROM RALEIGH
WEST TO KGSO/KINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...LOW
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LIGHT RAIN. ONCE
THIS BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...A 5-10KT
SOUTHERLY WIND (GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT) WILL DOMINATE AND MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR
KFAY AFTER 18Z IS REALLY THE ONLY THREAT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS
LOW.
TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE BY 00Z...BUT A STEADY 5-10KT WIND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRATUS (LIKELY
IFR) IS EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING
KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AND KRDU BY 06-09Z.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS LOWER AT KGSO/KINT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST SOME LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE BY 12Z.
LONG TERM: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES....ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS DRIVING PRECIP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS FROM THE LIFTS ACROSS THE LOW-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP IS
STILL VERY LIGHT ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST WARM ADVECTION
AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY DRY BELOW 7000 FT PER 00Z KGSO
RAOB. THE RAP STILL SHOWS THE BEST SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
295-305K LAYER FROM NOW THROUGH 15Z...THROUGH THE FLOW IS WEAK AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT REALLY DOESNT LOOK THAT GREAT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS RADAR ECHOES WILL EXPAND IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
AREAS WEST OF US 1 WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
TODAY...ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC SURGE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING..MODELS ACTUALLY PROJECT A MOSTLY DRY DESPITE PW
VALUES STEADILY INCREASING ABOVE ONE INCH AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AND AXIS OF BEST DEEP MOISTURE
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THERES REALLY NO FORCING OF ASCENT
OR INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC. HI-RES WRFS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE GRAND STRAND AREA OF SC AND SOUTHEASTERN
NC...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ENSHROUDING THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH
TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
THUS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ACTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1000-
850MB THICKNESS OF AROUND 1355M SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE ONCE THE SUN BREAK OUT. THE MAIN
QUESTION ON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LIGHT PRECIP THIS
MORNING AND OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT HEATING. WILL SHOWS A RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE PROBABILITY OF STRATUS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE NEAR SOME RECORD HI
MIN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THER FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND A COUPLE
DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...EXPECT TO FINALLY SEE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD. WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.5"...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGE
ZONE...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MAINS SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED
TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OLD MEXICO...AND A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WILL PROMOTE THE STRENGTHENING OF A CANADIAN/
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH...TO AROUND 1035 MB...ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU.
THE HIGH...AND PRECEDING SECONDARY COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THU...WILL CONSEQUENTLY HELP FORCE THE PRIMARY
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD AND
LARGELY OUT OF CENTRAL NC. EVEN THE ASSOCIATED H85 FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ROUGHLY SERVE AS THE NORTHEASTERN BOUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR RAIN ATOP THE CANADIAN/CP HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BELOW...IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
ROUGHLY TO AN ARC FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES OF NC...WITH NOTABLE DRYING -IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY AIR
SFC RIDGE- IN THE LOWEST 5000 OR SO FT...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT
ARC. AS SUCH...MOSTLY DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
THU...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR RIDGE...RANGING TO SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN FROM NE TO SW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA.
THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THU
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY LATE...AND MORE SO FRI...WHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACCELERATES AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GRADUAL NEARER APPROACH/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND FOLLOWING ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON
THE HEELS OF THE LEAD CANADIAN HIGH AND BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND;
AND WHILE THAT AIRMASS WILL NOT DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AT
OUR LATITUDE (WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC COLD/DRY HOLDING OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION)...A LONG FETCH/FEED
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A
MODIFIED VERSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE VA
AND NC PIEDMONTS FRI. THAT PROCESS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE ATOP THE HIGH(S)...WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG (CLASSICAL...DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED)
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FRI-FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY THAT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THU
NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE WEDGE SAT-SAT
NIGHT...OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWEST LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT
THAT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE ABOVE AVG RANGE THROUGH
SAT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PERIOD SUN-MON...WHEN DRY AND MILDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. LONGER
RANGE PROGS SIGNAL A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH AND BLOCKING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREENLAND - A PATTERN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NW FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EAST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENT
CENTERED AROUND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND VFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY....AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH PRECIP JUST TO THE
WEST MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OF NC.
SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL MOVE NEAR THE TRIAD THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT JUST SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE WILL BE ALL THAT IS
OBSERVED AT KGSO AND KINT. ONCE THIS BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...A 5-10KT SOUTHERLY WIND (GUSTING TO NEAR
20KT) WILL DOMINATE AND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIP. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR KFAY AFTER 18Z IS REALLY THE ONLY THREAT...AND
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.
TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE BY 00Z...BUT A STEADY 5-10KT WIND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING KFAY AND
KRWI IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.
LONG TERM: WEATHER WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES....ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1138 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
CANADIAN RADAR AND MINOT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM BRANDON TO NEAR OXBOW...ALONG A COLD
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF A SHOWER ALONG
THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER...FROM NEAR SHERWOOD TO BOTTINEAU AND
ROLLA. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 09Z AS THE FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OF 230 UTC. ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
OTHER THAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING FOR THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 0030 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. BROAD H500
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA BRUSHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK
TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY TROUGH PASSAGE AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THE RELATIVELY COOL
AIR SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WARM AIR ALREADY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT AN ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE TO 4000 FEET BUT LITTLE WIND SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20S F WITH RH VALUES AROUND 20. HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE
MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
WARM AND DRY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED.
PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND
THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION. A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
THE SECOND LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY. AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND WEST MIXING WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME
RATHER WARM DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON...WITH 70S POSSIBLE. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING WINDS...REMAINING SNOW WILL QUICKLY BE
ERODED. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATER
THIS WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
618 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE
A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RAINFALL FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND HAVE BEEN ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME DENSE FOG FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE ONLY
KEPT THE LAKESHORE AND TOLEDO AREA OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO
FAR BUT WILL EXPAND IT IF NEEDED. MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WERE
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS WITH WOOSTER REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF ZERO. A COUPLE REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATED
THAT VISIBILITY WAS GREATLY REDUCED. IF DRIVING THROUGH THIS THICK
FOG TURN ON YOUR LIGHTS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE SO OTHERS HAVE A
CHANCE TO SEE YOU.
OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA NEAR
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THERE ARE LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS MUCH. ALTHOUGH A LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO BRING VISIBILITIES UP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL
THE CLOUDS DO AND THEN THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOWS. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WAS
ALREADY OCCURRING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR WHETHER THE DENSE FOG WILL GET WORSE. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND FOG KEPT THE LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...SOME FOG AND CLOUDS COULD BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE AN INVERTED TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH. RIVER LEVELS ARE RISING BECAUSE OF THE SNOW MELT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE MORE OF A RISE IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND THAT COULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT EXPECT A NICE WARM UP FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR FOR MID WEEK. TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VARIABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO START. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SCOOT
ACROSS FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE RAIN. MANY QUESTIONS FOR AFTER 00Z WED ON HOW LOW STRATUS
CAN BE AND/OR FOG POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED
FROM CHICAGO ACROSS LAKE MI INTO MI LAST NIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER CLOUD SHIELD. WITH RECENT RAIN AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEFORE MORNING IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HRRR SUGGESTING
LOW CONDITIONS TOO. FOR NOW HAVE TURNED THE TAFS AROUND AND HAVE
IFR TONIGHT. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EFFECTS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE FANFARE CROSSES THE
LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST TO EAST...STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DOMINATE NORTH FLOW FOR THE LAKE. FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE
A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE
CLOUDS DO AND THEN THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOWS. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AT
INLAND LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHETHER
THE DENSE FOG WILL GET WORSE. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG KEPT
THE LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...SOME FOG AND CLOUDS COULD BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE AN INVERTED TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH. RIVER LEVELS ARE RISING BECAUSE OF THE SNOW MELT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE MORE OF A RISE IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND THAT COULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT EXPECT A NICE WARM UP FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR FOR MID WEEK. TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VARIABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO START. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SCOOT
ACROSS FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE RAIN. MANY QUESTIONS FOR AFTER 00Z WED ON HOW LOW STRATUS
CAN BE AND/OR FOG POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED
FROM CHICAGO ACROSS LAKE MI INTO MI LAST NIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER CLOUD SHIELD. WITH RECENT RAIN AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEFORE MORNING IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HRRR SUGGESTING
LOW CONDITIONS TOO. FOR NOW HAVE TURNED THE TAFS AROUND AND HAVE
IFR TONIGHT. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EFFECTS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE FANFARE CROSSES THE
LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST TO EAST...STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DOMINATE NORTH FLOW FOR THE LAKE. FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
133 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT
KMFD. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST THE RAIN WILL
GET AS FAR NORTH AS KCLE SO HAVE EXPANDED THE LIKELY AREA. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF MOST LOCATIONS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA BY
MID/LATE MORNING. MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT RAIN REACHING NEAR A LINE
FROM MNN-MFD-CAK- YNG WITH LIKELY OR BETTER POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. DID BRING CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR A FDY-CLE-
GKJ LINE. BEST SHOT AT NOTHING...TOLEDO. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO SUN BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION THINK 45 TO 50 REASONABLE
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT PRECIP TO EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE OVERNIGHT
DRY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
COOLEST AIR WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND ZERO. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
FLOW...ESP WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE
SO WHILE SOUTHERN/SWRN COUNTIES MAY SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO
50...FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE LAKE 40 TO 45 SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME FRIDAY ASTER THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OHIO ON SATURDAY. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
THE MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY FAR SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MORE OF THE SOUTH. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AFTER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO RETREAT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO START. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SCOOT
ACROSS FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE RAIN. MANY QUESTIONS FOR AFTER 00Z WED ON HOW LOW STRATUS
CAN BE AND/OR FOG POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED
FROM CHICAGO ACROSS LAKE MI INTO MI LAST NIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER CLOUD SHIELD. WITH RECENT RAIN AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEFORE MORNING IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HRRR SUGGESTING
LOW CONDITIONS TOO. FOR NOW HAVE TURNED THE TAFS AROUND AND HAVE
IFR TONIGHT. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EFFECTS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE APPEARS IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A LARGE
OPENING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHOALS BETWEEN THE WESTERN
BASIN AND CENTRAL BASINS. ONCE AGAIN...ICE FISHING INTERESTS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SHIFTING ICE FLOES CAUSING ENTRAPMENT ON THE
ICE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1001 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT
KMFD. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST THE RAIN WILL
GET AS FAR NORTH AS KCLE SO HAVE EXPANDED THE LIKELY AREA. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF MOST LOCATIONS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA BY
MID/LATE MORNING. MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT RAIN REACHING NEAR A LINE
FROM MNN-MFD-CAK- YNG WITH LIKELY OR BETTER POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. DID BRING CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR A FDY-CLE-
GKJ LINE. BEST SHOT AT NOTHING...TOLEDO. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO SUN BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION THINK 45 TO 50 REASONABLE
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT PRECIP TO EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE OVERNIGHT
DRY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
COOLEST AIR WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND ZERO. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
FLOW...ESP WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE
SO WHILE SOUTHERN/SWRN COUNTIES MAY SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO
50...FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE LAKE 40 TO 45 SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME FRIDAY ASTER THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OHIO ON SATURDAY. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
THE MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY FAR SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MORE OF THE SOUTH. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AFTER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO RETREAT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL DROP BELOW MVFR AS WELL AS THE RAIN SETTLES IN. BIG QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE LAKE
SHORE. WILL BRING IN A BRIEF PERIOD THERE. OTHERWISE...LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE APPEARS IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A LARGE
OPENING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHOALS BETWEEN THE WESTERN
BASIN AND CENTRAL BASINS. ONCE AGAIN...ICE FISHING INTERESTS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SHIFTING ICE FLOES CAUSING ENTRAPMENT ON THE
ICE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
136 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND KLAW AND KSPS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. BEYOND THAT...ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... FOG...
DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTN. CLEARING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND THE OBS TREND.
WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM... DID EXPAND
PATCHY FOG CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NWRN OK THROUGH 1 PM.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO INTERMITTENT LIFR VSBYS/CIGS
TO PERSIST THROUGH 13Z TO 15Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY 17Z TO 18Z...ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY 06Z WED.
AUSTIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RATHER HO-HUM WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AS THE UPPER WAVE THAT PROVIDED DECENT RAINS MONDAY CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG/DRIZZLE...AND OCCASIONAL RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
WE MAY STAY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-35 WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...ADEQUATE
SUNSHINE SHOULD COME THROUGH FOR US TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S
TODAY. THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE WEST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN...BUT AT THIS
TIME...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF
I-35.
BY SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL KEEP 60S MOST PLACES.
AN EVEN STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES LOOK TO BE DRY.
AUSTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 44 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 68 43 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 42 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 44 74 43 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 46 70 49 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
954 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... FOG...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTN. CLEARING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND THE OBS TREND.
WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM... DID EXPAND
PATCHY FOG CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NWRN OK THROUGH 1 PM.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO INTERMITTENT LIFR VSBYS/CIGS
TO PERSIST THROUGH 13Z TO 15Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY 17Z TO 18Z...ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY 06Z WED.
AUSTIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RATHER HO-HUM WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AS THE UPPER WAVE THAT PROVIDED DECENT RAINS MONDAY CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG/DRIZZLE...AND OCCASIONAL RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
WE MAY STAY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-35 WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...ADEQUATE
SUNSHINE SHOULD COME THROUGH FOR US TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S
TODAY. THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE WEST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN...BUT AT THIS
TIME...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF
I-35.
BY SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL KEEP 60S MOST PLACES.
AN EVEN STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES LOOK TO BE DRY.
AUSTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 44 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 68 43 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 42 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 44 74 43 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 46 70 49 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ005>008-
010-011-015-017.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
338 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE EUREKA RADAR ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS, BUT
IT`S LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS,
THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AT THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE CASCADES WITH 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS, BUT REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 6500 AND
7000 FEET TONIGHT, THEREFORE ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CRATER
LAKE AND ON TOP OF MOUNT ASHLAND.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -20 AND -22 C
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE BASED AND 850 MB LIFTED INDICES IN
THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
IN PARTS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OUT THERE.
THEREFORE WE`LL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 6500, BUT
IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO 6000 FEET IN AREAS
THAT GET HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOST SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AND WE`LL
HAVE A RETURN TO DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT..THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR SATURDAY LEAVING HIGHER POPS MAINLY COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOOL STILL SHOWING
70% CHC OF IVT EXCEEDING 500. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
RAIN FOR SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF KEEP SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE NW. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/18Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD BASE WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THE COAST BUT OVERALL WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS TO BOTH COOS AND CURRY COUNTY COASTS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED FROM MIDNIGHT ON WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREADING EAST INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. KRBG AND KMFR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS NEARBY. KLMT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD BE
PARTLY OBSCURED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 0335 PM PDT TUESDAY 10 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS, DUE TO WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. INITIALLY SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN WIND SEAS WILL
MIX WITH BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL AND MAY BECOME VERY STEEP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 13 FT AT
AROUND 9 SECONDS. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH GALES FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECOND WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT...BUT SOME RUNS INDICATE WINDS REACHING
NEAR GALE FORCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FRONT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
236 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE EUREKA RADAR ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS, BUT
IT`S LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS,
THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AT THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE CASCADES WITH 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS, BUT REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 6500 AND
7000 FEET TONIGHT, THEREFORE ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CRATER
LAKE AND ON TOP OF MOUNT ASHLAND.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -20 AND -22 C
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE BASED AND 850 MB LIFTED INDICES IN
THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
IN PARTS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OUT THERE.
THEREFORE WE`LL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 6500, BUT
IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO 6000 FEET IN AREAS
THAT GET HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOST SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AND WE`LL
HAVE A RETURN TO DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT..THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR SATURDAY LEAVING HIGHER POPS MAINLY COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOOL STILL SHOWING
70% CHC OF IVT EXCEEDING 500. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
RAIN FOR SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF KEEP SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE NW. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/18Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD BASE WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THE COAST BUT OVERALL WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS TO BOTH COOS AND CURRY COUNTY COASTS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED FROM MIDNIGHT ON WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREADING EAST INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. KRBG AND KMFR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS NEARBY. KLMT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD BE
PARTLY OBSCURED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 0400 AM PDT TUESDAY 10 MAR 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHOPPY WIND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY
SWELL WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...BUT A SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FEET
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO
12 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SLUG OF
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE GULF INTO LA/MS...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW LOW CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES
BUT CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WAA HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S/50S.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL WIN OUT
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG WAA COMBINED
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LI VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LATEST WPC QPF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SHOW
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. ASOS LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED 0.50 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
ABOUT HALF WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL/WPC QPF SHOWED.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOOKING AT 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND MAY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR
ESF.
BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z EMCWF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS
INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS IT LINGERS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING IT
EASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THINGS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH AND DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 52 64 50 65 / 70 40 20 80
CLARKSVILLE 47 62 49 62 / 40 20 20 80
CROSSVILLE 52 63 49 63 / 90 70 20 80
COLUMBIA 54 65 52 67 / 80 50 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 55 65 53 68 / 80 60 40 80
WAVERLY 49 63 49 63 / 40 30 20 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1239 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAT PARIS TN ATTM AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. AREA OF BEST LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE TAPERED POPS AND QPF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND MENTIONED DRIZZLE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH COOLER
READINGS ACROSS NE AR TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
MILDER...UPPER 60S...POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NE MS.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1107 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAT PARIS TN ATTM AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. AREA OF BEST LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE TAPERED POPS AND QPF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND MENTIONED DRIZZLE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH COOLER
READINGS ACROSS NE AR TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
MILDER...UPPER 60S...POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NE MS.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEAR THE
ARKLAMISS...MOVING NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... FOLLOWED 06Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
CORRELATED WELL WITH ONGOING TRENDS. GFS LAMP CIGS APPEARED TO BE
RELYING ON PERSISTENCE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEAR THE
ARKLAMISS...MOVING NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... FOLLOWED 06Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
CORRELATED WELL WITH ONGOING TRENDS. GFS LAMP CIGS APPEARED TO BE
RELYING ON PERSISTENCE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...GIVEN SPARSE BUOY DATA IN THE
GULF...THINK TEH SFC LOW IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 42002 AND PLATFORM
KHHV IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. RADAR HAS RAIN MOVING
INLAND WITH MAYBE SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE GULF WHERE
850MB LLJ IS OVERRIDING SFC BOUNDARY IN THE GULF. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS OFF THE LOWER TX COAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER S TX. LATEST RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE DECENT
HANDLE ON SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE 12Z 4KM WRF-ARW ALSO LOOKS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS. SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY
AND THEN TRACK INLAND ACROSS E TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT NOT MUCH. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THE ENHANCED LLJ.
LIKELY TIME RANGE LOOKS TO BE 7-11Z. THINK RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A CROCKETT...HOUSTON...GALVESTON
LINE. DO NOT THINK RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE THAN UNLESS MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WEST OF THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF
QUICKLY. COLLEGE STATION COULD SEE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCHE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE EVENT. THAT MIGHT BE PUSHING
IT. HOUSTON AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE
DEPENDING ON WHETHER YOU LIVE EAST OF HOUSTON OR WEST OF HOUSTON.
IMPACTS TO ONGOING RIVER FLOODING...OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALL WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS THAT ALREADY FLOOD. THE
TRINITY RIVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PARTS OF THE SAN
JACINTO. RAIN RATES WILL BE MAYBE A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AN
HOUR IN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SO THINK THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW. BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR INCREASED FLOODING NEAR RIVERS. RIGHT NOW A FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR HAS -RA/RA ADVANCING NORTH OFF THE GULF. THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE VERY MUCH PRECIP BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE. MESO
MODELS HRRR/RAP SHOW PRECIP FILLING IN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM 07Z-12Z
THUR. RAIN SHOULD THEN DECREASE AFTER THAT. TAFS FEATURE A SOUTH
TO NORTH PROGRESSION OF LOWERING CEILINGS AND CIGS WITH RAIN
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE IFR STARTING AROUND 05-06Z INLAND BUT CLOSER TO
03Z FOR KLBX/KGLS. RAIN SHOULD THEN BE ENDING 16-20Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH RAIN LINGERING FOR KUTS/KCLL UNTIL 22Z THUR-00Z FRI.
CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS RAIN LIFTS OUT. GUIDANCE REMAINS
PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR BUT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF TAFS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE LATER TONIGHT SO WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADD MENTION OF TSRA
IF NEEDED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NW GULF SFC LOW AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHRT WV. UPDATED
THE FORECAST EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ALONG
THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT AHEAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF HIGH PW AIR (1.5 INCHES) COMBINES WITH AMPLE
LIFT DUE TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE (LOW AND UPPER LEVEL).
NOT ONLY HAVE THE POPS BEEN RAISED TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF A FREEPORT TO HOUSTON TO
HUNTSVILLE LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOOD POTENTIAL AS SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE EARLY
WEEK RAINFALL.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE PRECIP CHC EXTEND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AT THAT TIME. AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT
WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD AND A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN. INLAND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY WITH THE SUN MAKING AN EXTENDED
APPEARANCE AS WELL. WEEKEND MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND IN THE
50S/70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ENTER THE FORECAST NEXT TUE/WED. 33
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF KBRO...
WILL MOVE N-NE TONIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE
INTO SE TX TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WILL ADD
AND SCEC FOR GALVESTON BAY THROUGH 06Z AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS ALSO THROUGH 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 63 50 71 52 / 40 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 64 53 71 53 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 62 55 66 57 / 100 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
528 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE WE
INITIALLY HAD BELOW 10 PERCENT POPS. EVEN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING WITH A THIN LAYER DRY AIR
RESIDING IN THE MID LAYERS AND A PERSISTENT HRRR MODEL SHOWING
MUCH OF THE RAIN DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID AND UPPER
VALLEY THOUGHT A 20 PERCENT FOR THE EVENING SHOULD COVER THIS
PATCH OF RAIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR AROUND 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IS
WHAT WE EXPECT AT THIS TIME. AS THE EARLIER FORECAST HAS STATED
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER BET OF RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY WHERE A DEEPER
LAYER OF MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED AFTER DATA
ARRIVES WITH THE 00Z BALLOON LAUNCH. ZONES AND POINT AND CLICK
UPDATED SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS TEXAS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO FORM TO
THE SOUTHWEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE
CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS AND MAINLY CAMERON COUNTY TOMORROW...SO
HAVE LIMITED POP TOMORROW TO RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE CURRENT
WAVE EJECTS TO THE NORTH LATER TOMORROW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE FURTHER INTO OUR AREA...WITH MINIMAL POP
CHANCE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SERIES OF 500 MB TROUGHS OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER STATES AND
INTO WESTERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 500 MB LOW BECOMES
CUT OFF BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE POOL
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...HOLDING SEAS AROUND 4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 54 66 56 73 / 30 30 20 10
BROWNSVILLE 54 71 55 76 / 30 30 20 10
HARLINGEN 53 72 54 75 / 30 30 10 10
MCALLEN 53 74 55 76 / 20 20 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 53 74 53 79 / 20 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 63 58 71 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMER READINGS
WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRODUCTION OF GROUND FOG. THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW FOG THAT WOULD BE MORE DENSE. WILL KEEP JUST PATCHY FOG
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODELS HAVE NOT JUMPED ON BOARD YET. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT-TERM
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MENTION 20
POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...OUT OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF BY
SATURDAY. THE MAIN PARENT TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES PERSISTENT TO WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE CUT OFF LOW TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST...THUS IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST 20 POPS TUESDAY UNTIL THERE IS MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 70 51 72 50 / - 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 69 51 71 48 / - 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 70 51 73 49 / - 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 68 49 70 47 / - - - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 50 75 48 72 50 / - - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 68 50 70 48 / - - 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 71 49 73 48 / - - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 69 51 72 49 / - 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 69 50 71 50 / - 10 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 70 51 73 49 / - - 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 70 51 73 50 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect poor flight conditions tonight and Tuesday morning as
stratus remains across the area. Going with IFR ceilings at all
the terminals tonight and Monday morning. Also, a few hours of
MVFR ceilings are possible. Expect rapid improvement Monday
afternoon with VFR conditions by 19Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect poor flight conditions through much of the TAF forecast period
across West Central Texas. Going with IFR ceilings at all the
terminals tonight and Monday morning, improving to MVFR by 17Z.
Expect some patchy fog with visibilities mainly between 3 and 5
miles. Also, showers will continue across much of the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An upper shortwave moving northeast across West Texas this afternoon
was bringing light showers...mainly along and north of Big Lake...
San Angelo...Brownwood line. The showers will come to an end tonight
as the the upper shortwave brings subsidence in its wake. The short
range HRRR and NAM models depict the current showers the best, indicating
them to gradually weaken and dissipate over the Big Country this
evening. Have a 50 percent chance of showers over the Big Country
this evening, with a slight chance to the south. A moist boundary
layer and wet vegetation will promote fog formation tonight, but
with low and mid level clouds in place, dense fog is not expected.
Models indicate clearing skies Tuesday as dry mid level air moves in
from the west. Most areas will see partly cloudy skies by mid
afternoon. Highs are expected in the lower and mid 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
The rest of the week into next weekend looks pleasant for our
area, with less cloud cover and near seasonal temperatures.
Upper trough extending from eastern Kansas southwest across Texas
into Mexico will slowly weaken through Wednesday, with a weak closed
low developing over north-central or northwest Texas on Thursday.
An upstream shortwave trough is progged to dive south across the
Great Basin, forming a closed low over northwest Mexico on Friday.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF take the low south across western Mexico, to
just south of the Baja Peninsula next weekend. This will help to
maintain a weak upper trough from Missouri southwest across Texas
and Mexico. Despite the position of the trough, a lack of
sufficient moisture and weak lift will result in minimal rain
chances for our area. With a lack of cold air intrusions or
significant warmups, temperatures will be close to normal for this
time in March. May see a backdoor cold frontal passage Saturday
night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 43 64 43 69 43 / 50 10 5 10 5
San Angelo 45 67 40 71 42 / 20 10 5 10 5
Junction 48 65 42 70 42 / 20 10 10 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
947 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BRIEF DRYING MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN HAS ADVANCED INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS OF 9PM. LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAD RAIN AND
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
03Z/11PM AND 06Z/2AM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIMING AND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A COULD DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WET GROUND DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY...A CLEAR SKY
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA...ALSO ADDED FOG IN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW PROMPTED FLOODING ACROSS
PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY TODAY. THAT FLOODING IS STILL
ONGOING...AND POSTED WARNINGS CONTINUE. NOW THAT THE RAIN WAS EXITING
THE REGION...THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL
CAUSES RISES ON STREAMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT NEW
WARNINGS. THEREFORE...THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A LEE
SIDE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE AXIS OF THE
HIGH WILL TURN WINDS E-SE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS
FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...AND ADVECT IT
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH SOME LATE IN
THE DAY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE BRIEF
DRYING THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE WHAT TRANSPIRED DURING THE WORK WEEK
WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY
WILL BE THE FACT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXIST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S...AND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/...TRENDING
TO MORE OF A SCATTERED SHOWER SCENARIO AS WE ENTER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...EAST SIDE OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISLODGE THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR BY
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND FINALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME...WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS BECOME MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BACK INTO THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SUNDAY SHOULD FINALLY
BRING SOME DRYING TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE
NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING BACK TOWARD THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LYNCHBURG TO AROUND
WILKESBORO AT 00Z/8PM. IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND
THE RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FROM KBLF INTO
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CLOUDS
CLEARING BETWEEN 03Z/11PM AND 06Z/2AM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TIMING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
EXPAND ONCE THE RAIN ENDS. WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND MOIST GROUND
FROM TODAY`S RAIN...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KROA AND KDAN MAY HAVE A
PERIOD OF LIFR FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
DEVELOPS....E-SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING
FRONT MAY GET DRAWN BACK INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE ARE BY MID-
DAY WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW END VFR CIGS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY...MORE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
LIKELY. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO EXPECT ANOTHER 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SUB VFR WX FOR MOST OF
THE TIME ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOKS LIKE CLEARING BY SUNDAY WITH VFR RETURNING...THOUGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MVFR RANGE EARLY SUNDAY IN BLF/LWB. COULD BE BREEZY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY INCLUDING THE
GREENBRIER RIVER. RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOWMELT IS RESULTING IN WATER FLOWING OUT OF JUST ABOUT
EVERY CRACK AND CREVICE ACROSS THE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE... STREAMS
ARE RUNNING HIGH...BUT NO NEED FOR HEADLINES ATTM. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE NEXT SURGE OF RAIN WHICH IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST THE NEXT RAIN EPISODE WILL
NET AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/ OF RAINFALL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/DS
HYDROLOGY...PM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING SCT-BKN CIRRUS UPSTREAM OVER
NORTHWEST WI INTO MN. WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THESE CLOUDS TO CARRY
INTO PARTS OF SRN WI OVERNIGHT SO BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY
IN NORTHERN CWA. LARGE RANGE OF CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS CWA...RANGING
FROM 34 AT KFLD TO 50 AT KMRJ. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WL CONTINUE PATCHY FOG MENTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD MELTING FROM LINGERING SNOW
TOOK PLACE TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RISEN IN SOME SPOTS TO NEAR
30. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT GENERALLY IN
GOOD ORDER.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR BRIEFLY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER MUCH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS SHOULD PREVENT VSBYS FROM FALLING TO IFR LEVELS.
OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP TO THE UPPER 20S. RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
SATURATION AT THE SURFACE. I ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW COVER REMAINING. THIS IS MAINLY WHERE THERE
WAS FOG THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS OFF THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MASS
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. 925MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE 7 TO
9 DEG C ON THURSDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE BULK OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SFC LOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 10-12C
RANGE...SUGGESTING LOW TO MID 60S AT THE SURFACE. BIGGEST ISSUE IS
IF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CHILLY
LAKE AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WITH FORECAST WINDS OF ABOUT 10
KNOTS...DECIDED IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE AWAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MORE ALONG SHORE WINDS
BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM IN THE FAR
EAST AS IT MIGHT END UP BEING.
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. EVEN SO...IT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS
TIME PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS FRONT...PUTTING A QUESTION
MARK ON MONDAY TEMPS. THE CANADIAN REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND
WARMEST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO 50. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SLOWED BACK DOWN A
BIT...SO DID NOT CUT TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SYSTEM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
UNDER A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...THOUGH LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE MVFR OR IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1115 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON. WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH VISIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME DRYING AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD DUE TO FOG AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH
VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. A TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MKE FROM 12Z SHOWED
ABOUT 1000FT OF FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THAT SHOW SOME DRYING AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL WI. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AT IFR LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH THE DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE
LAKE BUT HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO DISSIPATE ALONG THE SHORELINE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
IT WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT. THE WARMER TEMPS AND SNOW PACK
HAVE COMBINED TO HELP GENERATE A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. THE HRRR IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK AND TAKES IT
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA...CLEARING IT OUT BY LATE
MORNING. THAT SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN. THIS PROCESS...PLUS SUNSHINE...SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE LOW
CLOUDS. BUT...THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE TOUGH WITH RESPECT TO LOW
CLOUD FORECASTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STILL ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON...SO WILL KEEP THE VERY MILD TEMPS
GOING. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5C HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AND OUR NRN
FORECAST AREA HAS LOST MOST OF ITS SNOW PACK. I TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT
SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW PACK THERE.
A WEAK SFC TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOP AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING QUITE LIGHT BY MORNING. NOT
TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT RIGHT NOW AND WILL LEAVE IT MOSTLY CLEAR
AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH CWA BY 18Z OR SO THEN NVA
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS CWA AT 18Z
AND THEN SHIFTS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL A LIGHT WIND
REGIME. THERMAL PROFILE COOLS FROM TUESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKES
ON A NW/SE ORIENTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT...AND THE COOLER REGIME WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW/MID 50S IN
WESTERN CWA WITH 925 TEMPS CLOSER TO 5C THERE.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD AND RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH
SUPPORTS A REBOUND ONCE AGAIN IN THE 925/850 TEMPS. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SE...SO KEEPING THINGS COOLER IN THE EASTERN
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE BUT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH
40S NEAR THE LAKE AND SOME LOW 60S NEAR AND WEST OF MADISON GIVEN
THE UPTICK IN 925 TEMPS.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY PUSHING TOWARDS
SRN WI...IN FACT 84 HOUR NAM HAS RAIN SHIELD JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN
IL. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM MORE DOMINANT
WITH MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN WAVE REMAINING SOUTH OF WI. A NON-NAM
THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS A BOOST IN TEMPS SO HAVE STEERED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE 8-12C. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP
THE EAST COOLER WITH POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY COMPONENT.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DEGREE OF PROGRESSION AND EXTENT OF LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK. HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A COOLER
AIRMASS DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
850/925 TEMPS COOL MARKEDLY FROM FRIDAY...SO INLAND AREAS LIKELY
TO NOTICE THE BIGGER TEMP DROP FROM FRIDAY/S WARMER READINGS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER BOUNCE BACK DAY AS SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST AND
RENEWED WARMING TAKES HOLD. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE
RETURN WARMTH THAN THE ECMWF AND AT THIS TIME FEEL SUPERBLEND IS
TOO COOL AND WILL BOOST MAXES A BIT. MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER
IF GFS THERMAL PATTERN HOLDS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO EXTEND INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. WITH 925 TEMPS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10C...MAY END UP
SEEING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER ON
THE FROPA AND ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER VORT MAX IMPACTING THE AREA
WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS GRAZING THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW AND BOOST TEMPS OVER SUPERBLEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST WI
TAFS. AT THIS WRITING...NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IT WILL REACH
MADISON...BUT GIVEN THE MOMENTUM...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW
CLOUD TRENDS OVER A SNOW PACK. AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND DAMP GROUND COULD LEAD TO MORE
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ058>060-062>072.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ644>646.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
IT WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT. THE WARMER TEMPS AND SNOW PACK
HAVE COMBINED TO HELP GENERATE A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. THE HRRR IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK AND TAKES IT
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA...CLEARING IT OUT BY LATE
MORNING. THAT SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN. THIS PROCESS...PLUS SUNSHINE...SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE LOW
CLOUDS. BUT...THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE TOUGH WITH RESPECT TO LOW
CLOUD FORECASTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STILL ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON...SO WILL KEEP THE VERY MILD TEMPS
GOING. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5C HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AND OUR NRN
FORECAST AREA HAS LOST MOST OF ITS SNOW PACK. I TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT
SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW PACK THERE.
A WEAK SFC TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOP AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING QUITE LIGHT BY MORNING. NOT
TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT RIGHT NOW AND WILL LEAVE IT MOSTLY CLEAR
AT THIS POINT.
.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH CWA BY 18Z OR SO THEN NVA
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS CWA AT 18Z
AND THEN SHIFTS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL A LIGHT WIND
REGIME. THERMAL PROFILE COOLS FROM TUESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKES
ON A NW/SE ORIENTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT...AND THE COOLER REGIME WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW/MID 50S IN
WESTERN CWA WITH 925 TEMPS CLOSER TO 5C THERE.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD AND RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH
SUPPORTS A REBOUND ONCE AGAIN IN THE 925/850 TEMPS. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SE...SO KEEPING THINGS COOLER IN THE EASTERN
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE BUT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH
40S NEAR THE LAKE AND SOME LOW 60S NEAR AND WEST OF MADISON GIVEN
THE UPTICK IN 925 TEMPS.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY PUSHING TOWARDS
SRN WI...IN FACT 84 HOUR NAM HAS RAIN SHIELD JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN
IL. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM MORE DOMINANT
WITH MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN WAVE REMAINING SOUTH OF WI. A NON-NAM
THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS A BOOST IN TEMPS SO HAVE STEERED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE 8-12C. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP
THE EAST COOLER WITH POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY COMPONENT.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DEGREE OF PROGRESSION AND EXTENT OF LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK. HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A COOLER
AIRMASS DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
850/925 TEMPS COOL MARKEDLY FROM FRIDAY...SO INLAND AREAS LIKELY
TO NOTICE THE BIGGER TEMP DROP FROM FRIDAY/S WARMER READINGS.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER BOUNCE BACK DAY AS SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST AND
RENEWED WARMING TAKES HOLD. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE
RETURN WARMTH THAN THE ECMWF AND AT THIS TIME FEEL SUPERBLEND IS
TOO COOL AND WILL BOOST MAXES A BIT. MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER
IF GFS THERMAL PATTERN HOLDS.
.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO EXTEND INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. WITH 925 TEMPS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10C...MAY END UP
SEEING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER ON
THE FROPA AND ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER VORT MAX IMPACTING THE AREA
WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS GRAZING THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW AND BOOST TEMPS OVER SUPERBLEND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST WI
TAFS. AT THIS WRITING...NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IT WILL REACH
MADISON...BUT GIVEN THE MOMENTUM...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW
CLOUD TRENDS OVER A SNOW PACK. AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND DAMP GROUND COULD LEAD TO MORE
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ067>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FAIRLY MOIST MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH ALL OF ARIZONA WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOSTLY REFLECTING OFF THE MID
CLOUDS...BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME AREAS OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HRRR INITIALIZED
THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES FAIRLY WELL AND PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL EEK INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SLOWLY
MARCH ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONLY
MINIMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINK THE METRO PHOENIX AREA WILL BE IN
FOR A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE SUN APPEARS JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THIS COULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOW
TO MID 60S COMMONPLACE...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR
WESTERN DESERTS. WILL SEE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT...BUT ONLY AFFECTING FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
REACHING NEAR 582DM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOWER 90S APPEARING ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR
MONDAY WHILE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C OR EVEN LOWER 20S...WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
AND MIDDLE 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE AREN/T QUITE IN
RECORD TERRITORY...BUT GETTING CLOSE.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS INCREASING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO IS SHOWN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COAST. WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE LOW IN MEXICO. MODELS DON/T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE INCREASE SO FAR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH PLAYS OUT...AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES. WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET A BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL MANAGE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH CLEARING TO BEGIN ON THU EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SCT-BKN CIGS AS LOW AS
12K FT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH EVEN SOME VIRGA...BUT NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FORM SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES THU AFTERNOON AND KPHX AND KIWA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH CLEARING TO BEGIN ON THU AFTERNOON AS
THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SCT-BKN CIGS AS LOW
AS 12K FT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KBLH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT KBLH BY
16Z. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT TRENDING FROM WEST OVERNIGHT TO
NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...STRONGEST ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY LIGHTER WIND IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
224 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FOG THREAT CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAR LESS THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS AS DRIER AIR
HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND JUST DEEPER MIXING OCCURRED TODAY. A
FEW LOCATIONS WHICH WENT CALM IN WINDS EARLIER HAVE CLOSE T/TD
SPREADS BUT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW-LYING AREAS OR NEAR RIVERS AND INLAND LAKES...AND CANT RULE
OUT SOME OF THAT TO BE LOCALLY DENSE. BUT ANY SHOULD BURN OFF
SPEEDILY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK...WITH COOL LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 20S...WHILE AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 30 IN THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST TODAY TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. AS SUCH EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT BY THE MID MORNING. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING AT ARND 8 KT.
OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG AT DPA AND GYY THAT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BECOME EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND A LOW PUSHES EAST OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST BY THE MID MORNING...AND THEN TO SOUTH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
RIDGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KT MONDAY AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO 25
KT BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WEAK LAKE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1241 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FOG THREAT CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAR LESS THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS AS DRIER AIR
HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND JUST DEEPER MIXING OCCURRED TODAY. A
FEW LOCATIONS WHICH WENT CALM IN WINDS EARLIER HAVE CLOSE T/TD
SPREADS BUT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW-LYING AREAS OR NEAR RIVERS AND INLAND LAKES...AND CANT RULE
OUT SOME OF THAT TO BE LOCALLY DENSE. BUT ANY SHOULD BURN OFF
SPEEDILY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK...WITH COOL LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 20S...WHILE AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 30 IN THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST TODAY TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. AS SUCH EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT BY THE MID MORNING. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING AT ARND 8 KT.
OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG AT DPA AND GYY THAT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SREF
PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH RAP AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS APPEAR TO
BE HANDLING THIS WELL. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH INDY SUBURBS
NORTHWARD...FROM MIDNIGHT ON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE DENSE IN SPOTS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS WITH THIS EXPECTATION
AND WILL UPDATE OTHER PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
ADDITIONALLY...PER HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE BUMPED MIN TEMPS
UP SLIGHTLY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY TWEAKS REQUIRED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT AS FAR
AS CLOUD COVER.
DON/T THINK THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS
MORNING...AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIND TONIGHT ADVECTING LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING IN POPS STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST LIFT.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GIVEN ITS ORIGINS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ISN/T VERY STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATERS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF
200% OF NORMAL...THERE IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
MAY BE TOO COOL. WILL NUDGE UP THE HIGHS A BIT. WILL ALSO LOWER THE
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...DUE TO EXPECTED
RAINFALL. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS OK
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST WED MAR 11 2015
TRANQUIL PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGHOUT THOUGH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
BEFORE RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL.
HAVE GONE WITH THE BLEND FOR TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES AS THEY APPEARED
IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 120600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WITH DRY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
MORE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BEING AS BAD AS IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. STILL...CONDITIONS AT LEAST AS POOR AS MVFR SHOULD OCCUR WITH
IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IND AND LAF PER SREF LOW CEILING AND
VISIBILITY PROBABILITY PROG. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AFTER 13Z...AND EAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDS WITH MID AND LOWER
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. WILL NOT INCLUDE
RAIN YET THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE TERMINALS BY THEN.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...MK/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS LOW
WAS WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA INCREASING
SE WINDS THERE AND HELPING TO DIRECT WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION.
TODAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA AHEAD
OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH EVEN LOWER 50S FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA MID CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY THIN OUT SCNTRL AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT. DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INDICATES BEST LIFT WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO SOME MODEST INCREASE IN Q-
VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER THERE COULD BE SOME LGT PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE BEST
MOISTENING/LIFT FM 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS REALIZED. INCLUDED
BRIEF CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST AS SFC WARMING FM FRONT WILL LAG
WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO
FREEZING AT 12Z AROUND TIME LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN HWO AS PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL
ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY AND OCCURRENCE WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND THE FREEZING MARK EAST TO THE
MID 40S FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT SHARPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS JET STREAK DIGS FM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH IMPACTS MOSTLY NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER COULD SEE LGT PRECIP. INCLUDED
CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST CWA AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO POSSIBILITY
AS SFC WARMING LAGS WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN RAW MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO FREEZING AT 12Z AFTER
LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL NOT HIT THIS UP TOO HARD THOUGH AS PRECIP
CHANCES OVERALL ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE BY
FRIDAY AFTN WHICH WITH SW WINDS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE UP WELL
INTO THE 50S. RAISED TEMPS FOR AT LEAST WEST HALF. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLEARING...COULD SEE REPEAT OF TUESDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS
ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING BY TIME IT REACHES EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF/NAM AND GEM TO TRACK MAINLY OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. 12Z GFS FAVORS WESTERN TRACK
WHICH BRINGS MORE PRECIP OVER MUCH OF CWA. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF AREA...COLDER AIR ADVECTION BLO H7 WOULD SWITCH ANY RAIN
QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...MORE FZRA COULD ALSO OCCUR AS
COLDER AIR FIRST ARRIVES BLO H9 WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE 0C.
GIVEN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EVEN THE FARTHER EAST NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIP IN THAT CASE WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW UPR MICHIGAN
WHERE NW WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE LIFTING. CHANCES HERE APPEAR EVEN
LESS THAN THOSE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THAT IS UNLESS THE 12Z
GFS IS CORRECT WITH ITS WETTER SOLUTION. STRONG NW WINDS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THOUGH IT COULD
PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SCNTRL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE
SNOW ON GROUND IS LIMITED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT
COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 10C THROUGH 18Z. GFS
MUCH COLDER THOUGH. USED CONSENSUS AND BUMPED UP OVER SCNTRL BUT
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH SPEED OF FROPA AND
THUS THE MAX TEMPS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THAT TIME FRAME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER EAST HALF
WITH MAINLY RAIN UNTIL SUB -10C TEMPS AT H85 CRASH IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. SOME OPEN WATER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR
SO GIVEN LINGERING H85 MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15C MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR LK EFFECT
IN NW FLOW AREAS FM NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EAST CWA. OTHER BIG STORY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. INCREASED THESE
OVER CONSENSUS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF WINDS MAY EVEN END UP STRONGER GIVEN THE SHARP
CONTRAST OF THE AIRMASSES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUB 995MB LOW TRACKING WEST-TO-EAST
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP WITH THE COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES FOR NW FLOW AREAS. H85
TEMPS FM 12Z ECMWF ARE DOWN TO -20C ON TUESDAY. GFS MUCH MORE
MODERATE WITH ONLY -10C THOUGH SO WILL KEEP WITH CONSENSUS AS MODELS
ARE NOT TOO CONSISTENT ON EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
359 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT FOCUSING IN ON TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...
.SHORT TERM...FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UPCOMING HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS NARROWING TO TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
AS FOR TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW THE PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. THE LATEST HI-RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUID HAS OFFERED A MIXED BAG OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE NMM/ARW BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HRRR MATCHES THE
GFS/EURO/GEM WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. DESPITE
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOLID MOISTURE ADV MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. WHAT`S A MAJOR PLAYER FOR LATER TODAY IS THE
LARGE COMPLEX OFF THE SE LA COAST THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE MODELS I
MENTIONED HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND KEEP IT MORE OVER
S/SE LA FOR TODAY. THIS FITS WITH HOW THE UPPER JET IS SITUATED FOR
TODAY AS MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET. IT WON`T
BE UNTIL LATER THIS EVE WHEN THE JET ADJUSTS ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION
AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER DIV ALOFT TO SHIFT OVER OUR REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADV WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME EXPANSION AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO
THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
TAPPING VERY HIGH PWS (1.8-1.9 IN) AND VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
BE LIKELY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING SITUATION. THE
SETUP SUPPORTS A SIG HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT...BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THIS(THE WORST) WILL BE LOCATED IS TOUGH. RIGHT NOW...I FEEL
THE WORST OF IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL COVER PARTS OF OUR CWA TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WHERE THE CURRENT WATCH EXISTS. WHILE TIMING COULD BE PUSHED
BACK MORE INTO TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS FOR CONSISTENCY.
CONCERNING ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AN OUTLOOK. MUCH OF
THIS HAS TO DO WITH HOW THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROB
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHILE PEAK HEATING IS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE JET ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST
SEEM NOT TO BE ALIGNED PROPERLY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LACK OF
OVERALL QPF/CONVECTION IN THE HRRR/GFS/GEM/EURO.
AS WE GO INTO FRI...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE
OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. LOOK FOR THE RAIN ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS THE FINAL S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ALL OF THE PRECIP TO EXIT TO OUR E/NE BY EARLY EVENING. /CME/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE DAMP PATTERN BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. A LARGE CHUNK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PHASE WITH
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW
THE PERISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL TO SHIFT
WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. CYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SHUNTED
WEST BACK TOWARD THE BAJA REGION.
WITH A RETURN TO MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK...A DRIER PATTERN WILL BE ALLOWED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
DIURNAL RANGES MORE TYPICAL OF MID MARCH. THE PESKY BAJA LOW LOOKS
TO FINALLY BEGIN LIFTING OUT BY WEDNESDAY AS A GENERAL TROFFINESS
ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT
AS WEAKENING WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO PHASING SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DECENT WAVE AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW THIS SYTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK./26/
&&
.AVIATION...A COMBINATION OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOK FOR SIMILAR TRENDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING WITH MORE PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W
HALF. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/SE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS TRENDING TO MVFR/VFR AS TEMPS WARM. TIMING
PRECIP TODAY WILL BE VERY TOUGH AS WHAT LOOKS TO OCCUR WILL BE SCT
IN NATURE...BUT MOVING NORTHWARD. LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/RA/TSRA TO DEVELOP FROM AFTER 22-02Z. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 75 64 71 55 / 79 98 100 29
MERIDIAN 77 63 70 57 / 77 96 100 43
VICKSBURG 74 64 73 54 / 89 98 87 25
HATTIESBURG 76 64 75 57 / 77 98 100 28
NATCHEZ 73 63 72 53 / 86 98 80 18
GREENVILLE 69 64 71 55 / 88 96 91 31
GREENWOOD 73 65 71 56 / 79 95 100 36
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>043-047>049-
053>055-059>064-072>074.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
CME/26/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
248 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY... AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A
STRONG 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION AT THIS HOUR IS CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH IS
A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR AND THE ARW VERSION OF THE WRF IN MOVING PRECIPITATION OUT
OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT...CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS IN FROM
THE NORTH. WITH IT ARE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THOUGH UPPER 50S AND 60S STILL REMAIN. IN THIS
WARMER...WETTER AREA EXPECT TO HAVE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THROUGH DAYBREAK OR JUST BEFORE. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN WITH MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DAMMING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 60S
EVERYWHERE AND I WOULD HAVE TO SAY IT IS HARD TO DISAGREE WITH THAT
AS WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT INSOLATION WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NE TO SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT AND WILL BE PLENTY
STRONG ENOUGH TO START TO DEVELOP A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE SW FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND PROBABLY EVERYWHERE BY 00Z. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT SETUP OF THE WEDGE FRONT BUT EXPECT A
TRADITIONAL CAD DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES WITH MID 40S IN THE
TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONE FACTOR IN HOW THE CAD
EVOLVES IS THAT THE HIGH LOOKS VERY TRANSITORY AT THIS POINT AND THE
HYBRID CAD WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN IN-SITU CAD BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY HELP TO
BLOW THE CAD OUT QUICKER THAN USUAL. AS A RESULT...LOWS ARE NOT THAT
MUCH LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID 40S IN
THE TRIAD WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. -ELLIS
SAT/SAT NIGHT: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL
OFFSHORE BY SAT MORNING... LEAVING A MESOHIGH (SIGNIFYING THE
RESIDUAL COOL STABLE POOL) WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEAR LIKELY EARLY SAT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT... WITH THE NAM MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
STRONGER/DEEPER SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER LASTING LONGER INTO THE
DAY. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SWRLY 850 MB JET ACROSS VA/NC SAT AND
RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL STABILITY VIA DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE
VERTICAL... AND WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE
STABLE POOL QUICKLY... WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER DISSOLUTION OF
THIS AIR MASS. IN THE ERN CWA HOWEVER... EXPECT A THINNER AND MORE
VULNERABLE STABLE LAYER WITH QUICKER EROSION. APART FROM THIS
MESOSCALE RESIDUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY... THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL
HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NW... WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT THE GREATEST RAIN COVERAGE TO BE ALONG
OUR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS... CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TO THE
PATH OF WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY CENTERS. WE SHOULD SEE A SECONDARY
AREA OF DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA... WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AROUND 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE SAT
AFTERNOON... AND AROUND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE... BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE LIGHTNING PRODUCTION LAYER
ALOFT (ABOVE -10C). WILL ORIENT THE POPS IN THIS FASHION... BEST
CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO ALONG/EAST OF I-95. STILL EXPECT
A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA... FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR NW
TO MID 70S SE... WHICH IS CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE SE
AND AROUND 3-5 DEG UNDER GUIDANCE MEAN IN THE FAR NW. CERTAINLY IF
THE WEDGE REGIME DOES BREAK EARLIER IN THE DAY IN THE TRIAD... TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY... SO SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
TREND TOWARD NO POPS SAT NIGHT... AS THE TAIL OF THE 850 MB JET
DEPARTS -- YIELDING A MORE WNW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE -- AND THE
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT TO OUR NORTH... WHILE
LOSS OF HEATING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE ERN CWA. THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO SE INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL HELP PROPEL THE SURFACE FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NRN AND NE NC LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING... NORTHERN AND NW SECTIONS SHOULD COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S... WITH THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE
MID 50S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE NOW-BROAD VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ NEW ENGLAND (THE ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER
THAN THE GFS) WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE EXTENDING DOWN
INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUN... AND WITH A CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
INDUCING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY COLUMN... EXPECT FAIR SKIES.
THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...
IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE VA BORDER TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WSW SUN NIGHT
AS ENERGY STREAMS OUT OF CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S.
FOR MON-WED: LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY-MID WEEK. A
VORTICITY LOBE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND NE NC EARLY
MON... POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TO OUR NE CWA... BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MON WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. A PIECE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BREAKS OFF OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC LATE MON BEFORE SETTLING
TO OUR SOUTH BY TUE... AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TUE/WED. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH THIS
FRONT... MAINLY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW STAYING PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST OR NW... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON SHOULD REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT... THEN DIP BACK TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL POST-FRONT WED AS MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW WITH A RETURN TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: RAIN CONTINUES TO SLIP OUT OF THE CWA FROM WEST
TO EAST. MEANWHILE DRIER AIR IS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KINT IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE LATEST. KRDU SHOULD ALSO BE GETTING THIS
DRY SURGE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER SO THESE SITES SHOULD BE IN THE
CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ITS KRWI AND KFAY THAT REMAIN
MORE UNCERTAIN AS DEWPOINTS HERE ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S WITH SOME RAIN STILL AROUND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AROUND DAYBREAK
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER DAYBREAK EXPECT
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GUSTS WILLS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA AND
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL OF TO THE WEST. THIS WEEKEND THAT MOISTURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PRESENT MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING WHILE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR GLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS LINE MAY AFFECT THE METRO TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...GIVEN SPARSE BUOY DATA IN THE
GULF...THINK THE SFC LOW IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 42002 AND PLATFORM
KHHV IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. RADAR HAS RAIN MOVING
INLAND WITH MAYBE SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE GULF WHERE
850MB LLJ IS OVERRIDING SFC BOUNDARY IN THE GULF. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS OFF THE LOWER TX COAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER S TX. LATEST RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE DECENT
HANDLE ON SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE 12Z 4KM WRF-ARW ALSO LOOKS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS. SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY
AND THEN TRACK INLAND ACROSS E TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT NOT MUCH. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THE ENHANCED LLJ.
LIKELY TIME RANGE LOOKS TO BE 7-11Z. THINK RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A CROCKETT...HOUSTON...GALVESTON
LINE. DO NOT THINK RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE THAN UNLESS MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WEST OF THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF
QUICKLY. COLLEGE STATION COULD SEE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCHE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE EVENT. THAT MIGHT BE PUSHING
IT. HOUSTON AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE
DEPENDING ON WHETHER YOU LIVE EAST OF HOUSTON OR WEST OF HOUSTON.
IMPACTS TO ONGOING RIVER FLOODING...OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALL WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS THAT ALREADY FLOOD. THE
TRINITY RIVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PARTS OF THE SAN
JACINTO. RAIN RATES WILL BE MAYBE A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AN
HOUR IN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SO THINK THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW. BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR INCREASED FLOODING NEAR RIVERS. RIGHT NOW A FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR HAS -RA/RA ADVANCING NORTH OFF THE GULF. THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE VERY MUCH PRECIP BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE. MESO
MODELS HRRR/RAP SHOW PRECIP FILLING IN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM 07Z-12Z
THUR. RAIN SHOULD THEN DECREASE AFTER THAT. TAFS FEATURE A SOUTH
TO NORTH PROGRESSION OF LOWERING CEILINGS AND CIGS WITH RAIN
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE IFR STARTING AROUND 05-06Z INLAND BUT CLOSER TO
03Z FOR KLBX/KGLS. RAIN SHOULD THEN BE ENDING 16-20Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH RAIN LINGERING FOR KUTS/KCLL UNTIL 22Z THUR-00Z FRI.
CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS RAIN LIFTS OUT. GUIDANCE REMAINS
PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR BUT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF TAFS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE LATER TONIGHT SO WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADD MENTION OF TSRA
IF NEEDED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NW GULF SFC LOW AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHRT WV. UPDATED
THE FORECAST EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ALONG
THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT AHEAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF HIGH PW AIR (1.5 INCHES) COMBINES WITH AMPLE
LIFT DUE TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE (LOW AND UPPER LEVEL).
NOT ONLY HAVE THE POPS BEEN RAISED TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF A FREEPORT TO HOUSTON TO
HUNTSVILLE LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOOD POTENTIAL AS SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE EARLY
WEEK RAINFALL.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE PRECIP CHC EXTEND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AT THAT TIME. AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT
WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD AND A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN. INLAND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY WITH THE SUN MAKING AN EXTENDED
APPEARANCE AS WELL. WEEKEND MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND IN THE
50S/70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ENTER THE FORECAST NEXT TUE/WED. 33
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF KBRO...
WILL MOVE N-NE TONIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE
INTO SE TX TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WILL ADD
AND SCEC FOR GALVESTON BAY THROUGH 06Z AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS ALSO THROUGH 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 63 50 71 52 / 40 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 64 53 71 53 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 62 55 66 57 / 100 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF US WILL DRY THINGS OUT TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN HAS ADVANCED INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS OF 9PM. LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAD RAIN AND
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
03Z/11PM AND 06Z/2AM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIMING AND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A COULD DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WET GROUND DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY...A CLEAR SKY
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA...ALSO ADDED FOG IN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW PROMPTED FLOODING ACROSS
PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY TODAY. THAT FLOODING IS STILL
ONGOING...AND POSTED WARNINGS CONTINUE. NOW THAT THE RAIN WAS EXITING
THE REGION...THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL
CAUSES RISES ON STREAMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT NEW
WARNINGS. THEREFORE...THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A LEE
SIDE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE AXIS OF THE
HIGH WILL TURN WINDS E-SE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS
FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...AND ADVECT IT
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH SOME LATE IN
THE DAY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE BRIEF
DRYING THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE WHAT TRANSPIRED DURING THE WORK WEEK
WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY
WILL BE THE FACT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXIST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S...AND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/...TRENDING
TO MORE OF A SCATTERED SHOWER SCENARIO AS WE ENTER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...EAST SIDE OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISLODGE THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR BY
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND FINALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME...WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS BECOME MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BACK INTO THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SUNDAY SHOULD FINALLY
BRING SOME DRYING TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE
NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING BACK TOWARD THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW FAST THE DRY AIR COMES IN VERSUS
FOG FORMATION AT THE TERMINALS. ALREADY SEEING DENSE FOG AT
LWB/BLF. BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN...THE FOG WILL STICK AROUND LONGER
INTO THE BLF AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE SFC WINDS
SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH...THOUGH STAYING LIGHT. LWB WILL BE IN
AND OUT OF FOG AS DRY AIR TRIES TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS SOAKED...SO MAY LINGER FOG INTO DAWN.
GOING MORE OPTIMISTIC THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE AT TIMES AROUND
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...WITH VSBYS FINALLY WORKING ABOVE IFR BY 14Z.
FURTHER EAST THINK THE DRY AIR WILL KEEP LYH FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
SO BUMPED UP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST VSBYS TO TEMPO IFR BEFORE DAWN.
DANVILLE ON THE OTHER HAND MAY STAY IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LONGER
TO ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO DROP TO 1SM TOWARD DAWN.
BLACKSBURG ALSO TRICKY AS FOG IS LIMITED AT THE MOMENT BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT THICK BETWEEN 07Z-
12Z...SO HAVE VSBYS DOWN TO 2SM WITH TEMPO OF 1/4SM FG.
ROANOKE SHOULD STAY VFR.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z THERE WILL BE SCATTERED AND AT TIME
BKN CIRRUS...BUT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARD BLF BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY...MORE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
LIKELY. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO EXPECT ANOTHER 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SUB VFR WX FOR MOST OF
THE TIME ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOKS LIKE CLEARING BY SUNDAY WITH VFR RETURNING...THOUGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MVFR RANGE EARLY SUNDAY IN BLF/LWB. COULD BE BREEZY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY INCLUDING THE
GREENBRIER RIVER. RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOWMELT IS RESULTING IN WATER FLOWING OUT OF JUST ABOUT
EVERY CRACK AND CREVICE ACROSS THE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE... STREAMS
ARE RUNNING HIGH...BUT NO NEED FOR HEADLINES ATTM. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE NEXT SURGE OF RAIN WHICH IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST THE NEXT RAIN EPISODE WILL
NET AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/ OF RAINFALL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FAIRLY MOIST MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH ALL OF ARIZONA WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOSTLY REFLECTING OFF THE MID
CLOUDS...BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME AREAS OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HRRR INITIALIZED
THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES FAIRLY WELL AND PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL EEK INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SLOWLY
MARCH ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONLY
MINIMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINK THE METRO PHOENIX AREA WILL BE IN
FOR A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE SUN APPEARS JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THIS COULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOW
TO MID 60S COMMONPLACE...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR
WESTERN DESERTS. WILL SEE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT...BUT ONLY AFFECTING FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
REACHING NEAR 582DM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOWER 90S APPEARING ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR
MONDAY WHILE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C OR EVEN LOWER 20S...WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
AND MIDDLE 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE AREN/T QUITE IN
RECORD TERRITORY...BUT GETTING CLOSE.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS INCREASING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO IS SHOWN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COAST. WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE LOW IN MEXICO. MODELS DON/T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE INCREASE SO FAR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH PLAYS OUT...AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES. WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET A BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL MANAGE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA FL120...WILL PRODUCE
A LOT OF VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX METRO. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING SOUTHEAST AND EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS COMMONLY 25
KNOTS...NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOCATIONS
THAT DEVELOP LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME MEASURE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A LOT MORE CLOUDINESS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS ONE WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN FACT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE
TRENDING UPWARD WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN FAIR TO
GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
940 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO SPREAD OVR THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TO THE ERN MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD N-S TROUGH FROM IDAHO DOWN TO S
CALIF. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE TEMPS UP THIS MORNING.
READINGS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING (4 AM) WERE STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS A FEW AREAS...WITH PUEBLO THE COOLEST AT 39. MOST OF THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS WERE STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. REGIONAL RADARS OVER
THE GREATER COLO REGION WERE INDICATING ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS
WAS LIKELY VIRGA FROM HIGH TO MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
TODAY...
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTDVD AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE NSSL 4KM WRF
ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS DATASETS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF THIS
INFORMATION. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT (IT ONLY GOES OUT TO 23 UTC
AS OF THIS WRITING).
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WORK DOWN THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S TO L70S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ARK RVR MAINLY FROM LA JUNTA EAST TO THE KS
BORDER. 40S AND 50S WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS LATER TODAY WILL OCCUR MAINLY ABOVE TREELINE ALONG THE
CONTDVD. A FEW CG LTG FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD. THE PLAINS WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AND EXPECT A LOW
OVERCAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT.
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS REACHING TO ABOUT 40. 20S AND 30S WILL
OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO PATTERN EVOLUTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 7 KFT. MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO WEST OF I-25. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 7 KFT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 9 KFT...WHILE THE
PEAKS WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO HOLD ON TO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS WILL
END BY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S...WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TROUGH PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT THEN DEVELOPS DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
KCOS AND KPUB...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP PAST KCOS AROUND 10 AM AND WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM NEAR EADS TO KIM BY NOONTIME. HOWEVER...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
CIGS WILL LOWER...LIKELY BECOMING MVFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KCOS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
KALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24H...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSER
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD N-S TROUGH FROM IDAHO DOWN TO S
CALIF. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE TEMPS UP THIS MORNING.
READINGS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING (4 AM) WERE STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS A FEW AREAS...WITH PUEBLO THE COOLEST AT 39. MOST OF THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS WERE STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. REGIONAL RADARS OVER
THE GREATER COLO REGION WERE INDICATING ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS
WAS LIKELY VIRGA FROM HIGH TO MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
TODAY...
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTDVD AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE NSSL 4KM WRF
ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS DATASETS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF THIS
INFORMATION. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT (IT ONLY GOES OUT TO 23 UTC
AS OF THIS WRITING).
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WORK DOWN THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S TO L70S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ARK RVR MAINLY FROM LA JUNTA EAST TO THE KS
BORDER. 40S AND 50S WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS LATER TODAY WILL OCCUR MAINLY ABOVE TREELINE ALONG THE
CONTDVD. A FEW CG LTG FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD. THE PLAINS WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AND EXPECT A LOW
OVERCAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT.
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS REACHING TO ABOUT 40. 20S AND 30S WILL
OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO PATTERN EVOLUTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 7 KFT. MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO WEST OF I-25. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 7 KFT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 9 KFT...WHILE THE
PEAKS WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO HOLD ON TO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS WILL
END BY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S...WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TROUGH PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT THEN DEVELOPS DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
KCOS AND KPUB...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP PAST KCOS AROUND 10 AM AND WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM NEAR EADS TO KIM BY NOONTIME. HOWEVER...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
CIGS WILL LOWER...LIKELY BECOMING MVFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KCOS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
KALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24H...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
959 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. BACK DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ATLTAMAHA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING...BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED INLAND TOWARDS I-75 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WILL HAVE
OCNL LIFR TIL AROUND 15Z THEN PREVAILING VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS
AFT 18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SSI WHERE SEAFOG WILL KEEP VLIFR
THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH VCSH AFT 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE SE GA
WATERS UNTIL NOON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. ALSO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 59 71 61 / 40 40 40 30
SSI 68 58 67 61 / 40 60 30 20
JAX 77 62 77 64 / 50 40 20 20
SGJ 74 63 74 65 / 30 30 10 20
GNV 82 63 81 63 / 60 20 20 20
OCF 84 63 82 64 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-COASTAL
DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
PP/LS/KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
957 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. BACK DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ATLTAMAHA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING...BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED INLAND TOWARDS I-75 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WILL HAVE
OCNL LIFR TIL AROUND 15Z THEN PREVAILING VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS
AFT 18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SSI WHERE SEAFOG WILL KEEP VLIFR
THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH VCSH AFT 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE
SE WATERS UNTIL NOON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ALSO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 59 71 61 / 40 40 40 30
SSI 68 58 67 61 / 40 60 30 20
JAX 77 62 77 64 / 50 40 20 20
SGJ 74 63 74 65 / 30 30 10 20
GNV 82 63 81 63 / 60 20 20 20
OCF 84 63 82 64 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-COASTAL
DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
PP/LS/KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS LOW
WAS WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA INCREASING
SE WINDS THERE AND HELPING TO DIRECT WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION.
TODAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA AHEAD
OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH EVEN LOWER 50S FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA MID CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY THIN OUT SCNTRL AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT. DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INDICATES BEST LIFT WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO SOME MODEST INCREASE IN Q-
VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER THERE COULD BE SOME LGT PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE BEST
MOISTENING/LIFT FM 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS REALIZED. INCLUDED
BRIEF CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST AS SFC WARMING FM FRONT WILL LAG
WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO
FREEZING AT 12Z AROUND TIME LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN HWO AS PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL
ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY AND OCCURRENCE WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND THE FREEZING MARK EAST TO THE
MID 40S FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS EVENING AS
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF THE
AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS ABV FREEZING
ADVECT OVER SNOW COVERED GROUND GENERATING STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1103 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...ANOTHER CLOUDY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW SPINNING OFFSHORE NEAR
HOUSTON TEXAS. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS HELPING GENERATE SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE...THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE NORTH INTO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BUT GENERALLY WE ARE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 11AM ARE IN THE
60S AREAWIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S BEING PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AS THE SFC LOW
MAKES ITS SLOW TRACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THAT THIS WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE CUT BACK SOME ON POPS FOR EARLIER TODAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS TRENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD...DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER...CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 70S. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND THE BETTER TIME PERIOD FOR THIS CONTINUES TO
BE IN THE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. ONLY OTHER UPDATES WERE
MINOR HOURLY TRENDS. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...VARYING CEILINGS HEIGHTS ARE RESULTING IN A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. A BOUT OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAIN COULD
ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME.
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED TO IFR/LIFR STATUSES WHERE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS OBSERVED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 7-12 KNOTS...BUT WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
..HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT FOCUSING IN ON TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UPCOMING HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS NARROWING TO TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
AS FOR TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW THE PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. THE LATEST HI-RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUID HAS OFFERED A MIXED BAG OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE NMM/ARW BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HRRR MATCHES THE
GFS/EURO/GEM WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. DESPITE
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOLID MOISTURE ADV MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. WHAT`S A MAJOR PLAYER FOR LATER TODAY IS THE
LARGE COMPLEX OFF THE SE LA COAST THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE MODELS I
MENTIONED HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND KEEP IT MORE OVER
S/SE LA FOR TODAY. THIS FITS WITH HOW THE UPPER JET IS SITUATED FOR
TODAY AS MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET. IT WON`T
BE UNTIL LATER THIS EVE WHEN THE JET ADJUSTS ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION
AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER DIV ALOFT TO SHIFT OVER OUR REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADV WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME EXPANSION AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO
THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
TAPPING VERY HIGH PWS (1.8-1.9 IN) AND VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
BE LIKELY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING SITUATION. THE
SETUP SUPPORTS A SIG HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT...BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THIS(THE WORST) WILL BE LOCATED IS TOUGH. RIGHT NOW...I FEEL
THE WORST OF IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL COVER PARTS OF OUR CWA TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WHERE THE CURRENT WATCH EXISTS. WHILE TIMING COULD BE PUSHED
BACK MORE INTO TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS FOR CONSISTENCY.
CONCERNING ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AN OUTLOOK. MUCH OF
THIS HAS TO DO WITH HOW THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROB
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHILE PEAK HEATING IS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE JET ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST
SEEM NOT TO BE ALIGNED PROPERLY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LACK OF
OVERALL QPF/CONVECTION IN THE HRRR/GFS/GEM/EURO.
AS WE GO INTO FRI...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE
OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. LOOK FOR THE RAIN ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS THE FINAL S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ALL OF THE PRECIP TO EXIT TO OUR E/NE BY EARLY EVENING. /CME/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE DAMP PATTERN BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. A LARGE CHUNK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PHASE WITH
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW
THE PERISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL TO SHIFT
WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. CYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SHUNTED
WEST BACK TOWARD THE BAJA REGION.
WITH A RETURN TO MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK...A DRIER PATTERN WILL BE ALLOWED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
DIURNAL RANGES MORE TYPICAL OF MID MARCH. THE PESKY BAJA LOW LOOKS
TO FINALLY BEGIN LIFTING OUT BY WEDNESDAY AS A GENERAL TROFFINESS
ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT
AS WEAKENING WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO PHASING SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DECENT WAVE AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW THIS SYTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 64 71 55 / 79 98 100 29
MERIDIAN 76 63 70 57 / 73 96 100 43
VICKSBURG 73 64 73 54 / 89 98 87 25
HATTIESBURG 76 64 75 57 / 77 98 100 28
NATCHEZ 73 63 72 53 / 86 98 80 18
GREENVILLE 68 64 71 55 / 88 96 91 31
GREENWOOD 72 65 71 56 / 79 95 100 36
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
034>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072>074.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
934 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS IT
LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH. AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MHX...CHS...AND
GSO ALL SHOW THE BULK OF THE 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE WAS TOO COLD WITH
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THE 09Z AND 12Z RUC LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WHEN MATCHED WITH THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND IS THE BASIS FOR THIS MORNING`S UPDATE. I HAVE RAISED
FORECAST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH 65-70 DEGREES NOW FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS QUITE THIN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD ONLY HAVE A MILD IMPACT ON FILTERING
INSOLATION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY AIR IS ARRIVING FROM
FAR-EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S. THIS DRIER (BUT NOT TREMENDOUSLY CHILLIER) AIRMASS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING THE BETTER
MOISTURE ALOFT. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A 1036 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE STABILIZING AND THEN RISING A FEW DEGREES.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
WORK FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE RISK FOR RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LAYER OF
SATURATION NARROWING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRIGHTEN FOR
A TIME. DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE RECORD HIGHS OF
WED. STILL...NOT ATYPICAL FOR MID MARCH AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLEST DUE TO A
DEVELOPING NORTHEAST RESULTANT BRINGING MARINE INFLUENCES ONTO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
A RATHER BREEZY DAY WITH NE TO ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER...ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS FRI MORNING APPROACHES.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE COAST FRI MORNING AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL
HELP TO LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE TROUGH AND ATOP THE
COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIRMASS. WILL SHOW SMALL POPS RETURNING...
GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING EARLY FRI MORNING. EXPECT A RATHER
LARGE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS TONIGHT EVEN THROUGH THERE WILL BE NO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWER 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER 40S MORE COMMON ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN LATE FRI AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM WESTERN GULF
COAST. THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRI
BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SE TO S LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING AS WARM
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS INLAND AND NORTH. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR
WILL REMAIN AT THE SFC...A DEEPER SW FLOW BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH TO THE NW WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY PCP BY LATE FRI. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN INLAND WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME
LATE FRI AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH. SHALLOW
COOLER AIR WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRI BELOW NORMAL BUT TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AFTER COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY EXPECT PCP TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. PCP SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH COLUMN BEGINNING TO DRY
OUT BY SUN MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER AS UPPER
TROUGH...STILL BACK TO THE WEST...WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND
COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HOLD BACK
THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING A DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE WARMER
TEMPS SUN AFTN. EXPECT READINGS UP CLOSER TO 70. ONCE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT EXPECT A DEEPER COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPS FALLING DOWN INTO THE 40S. CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD MON AFTN AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH TUES AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MON NIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOWS BELOW
40 IN SPOTS BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD 70 TUES AFTN IN BRIGHT
MARCH SUNSHINE. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW ON WED. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS TUES NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPS FOR WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
MID-LEVEL CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY FROM KFLO-KMYR SOUTH. MID LEVEL CIGS ARE CLEARING SLOWLY
FROM N-S TOWARDS KILM/KLBT.
IFR STRATUS ABOUT 800 FEET IS MOVING SW TOWARDS KILM EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST THIS IS QUICK MOVING AND PATCHY. TEMPO IFR APPEARS
LIKELY AT KILM UNTIL 14Z AND KCRE/KMYR POTENTIALLY UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. -RA POTENTIAL WILL BE BEST FROM KFLO TO
KCRE/KMYR THIS MORNING BUT IT WILL BE IN THE DISSIPATING STAGE.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD....BUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS TODAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR/RAIN DEVELOPING
FRI PERSISTING INTO SAT. VFR DEVELOPING SUN AND PERSISTING INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TIGHTENS UP OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OBSERVED WINDS UP TOWARD CAPES LOOKOUT AND HATTERAS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF 25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS DEVELOPING HERE OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTED AT 2-3
FEET...THESE VALUES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE
TO WINDS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING NEAR-TERM
UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
A NE SURGE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING AND THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT. NE WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVE ARE EXPECTED TO
BACK TO ENE LATE AT NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG
THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING...REACHING 6 TO 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY FRI NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE
GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST
THROUGH FRI AFTN AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD BU THE ON SHORE PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS UP BETWEEN 3 TO 6
FT. MAY SEE SEAS INCREASE JUST ENOUGH TO HAVE SCA CONDITIONS IN
OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
VEER TO THE SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW-N WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. THE OFF SHORE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
OFF BEHIND IT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
PINCHED GRADIENT AND NORTH WINDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS...BEFORE
EASING LATE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NW FLOW SUNDAY WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF SHORE. SEAS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT
WITH A NW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT...AND THEN FALL FURTHER MONDAY TO
1-3 FT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
735 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY... AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A
STRONG 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION AT THIS HOUR IS CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH IS
A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR AND THE ARW VERSION OF THE WRF IN MOVING PRECIPITATION OUT
OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT...CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS IN FROM
THE NORTH. WITH IT ARE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THOUGH UPPER 50S AND 60S STILL REMAIN. IN THIS
WARMER...WETTER AREA EXPECT TO HAVE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THROUGH DAYBREAK OR JUST BEFORE. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN WITH MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DAMMING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 60S
EVERYWHERE AND I WOULD HAVE TO SAY IT IS HARD TO DISAGREE WITH THAT
AS WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT INSOLATION WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NE TO SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT AND WILL BE PLENTY
STRONG ENOUGH TO START TO DEVELOP A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE SW FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND PROBABLY EVERYWHERE BY 00Z. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT SETUP OF THE WEDGE FRONT BUT EXPECT A
TRADITIONAL CAD DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES WITH MID 40S IN THE
TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONE FACTOR IN HOW THE CAD
EVOLVES IS THAT THE HIGH LOOKS VERY TRANSITORY AT THIS POINT AND THE
HYBRID CAD WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN IN-SITU CAD BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY HELP TO
BLOW THE CAD OUT QUICKER THAN USUAL. AS A RESULT...LOWS ARE NOT THAT
MUCH LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID 40S IN
THE TRIAD WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. -ELLIS
SAT/SAT NIGHT: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL
OFFSHORE BY SAT MORNING... LEAVING A MESOHIGH (SIGNIFYING THE
RESIDUAL COOL STABLE POOL) WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEAR LIKELY EARLY SAT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT... WITH THE NAM MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
STRONGER/DEEPER SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER LASTING LONGER INTO THE
DAY. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SWRLY 850 MB JET ACROSS VA/NC SAT AND
RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL STABILITY VIA DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE
VERTICAL... AND WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE
STABLE POOL QUICKLY... WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER DISSOLUTION OF
THIS AIR MASS. IN THE ERN CWA HOWEVER... EXPECT A THINNER AND MORE
VULNERABLE STABLE LAYER WITH QUICKER EROSION. APART FROM THIS
MESOSCALE RESIDUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY... THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL
HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NW... WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT THE GREATEST RAIN COVERAGE TO BE ALONG
OUR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS... CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TO THE
PATH OF WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY CENTERS. WE SHOULD SEE A SECONDARY
AREA OF DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA... WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AROUND 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE SAT
AFTERNOON... AND AROUND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE... BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE LIGHTNING PRODUCTION LAYER
ALOFT (ABOVE -10C). WILL ORIENT THE POPS IN THIS FASHION... BEST
CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO ALONG/EAST OF I-95. STILL EXPECT
A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA... FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR NW
TO MID 70S SE... WHICH IS CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE SE
AND AROUND 3-5 DEG UNDER GUIDANCE MEAN IN THE FAR NW. CERTAINLY IF
THE WEDGE REGIME DOES BREAK EARLIER IN THE DAY IN THE TRIAD... TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY... SO SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
TREND TOWARD NO POPS SAT NIGHT... AS THE TAIL OF THE 850 MB JET
DEPARTS -- YIELDING A MORE WNW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE -- AND THE
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT TO OUR NORTH... WHILE
LOSS OF HEATING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE ERN CWA. THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO SE INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL HELP PROPEL THE SURFACE FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NRN AND NE NC LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING... NORTHERN AND NW SECTIONS SHOULD COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S... WITH THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE
MID 50S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE NOW-BROAD VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ NEW ENGLAND (THE ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER
THAN THE GFS) WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE EXTENDING DOWN
INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUN... AND WITH A CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
INDUCING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY COLUMN... EXPECT FAIR SKIES.
THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...
IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE VA BORDER TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WSW SUN NIGHT
AS ENERGY STREAMS OUT OF CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S.
FOR MON-WED: LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY-MID WEEK. A
VORTICITY LOBE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND NE NC EARLY
MON... POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TO OUR NE CWA... BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MON WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. A PIECE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BREAKS OFF OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC LATE MON BEFORE SETTLING
TO OUR SOUTH BY TUE... AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TUE/WED. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH THIS
FRONT... MAINLY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW STAYING PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST OR NW... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON SHOULD REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT... THEN DIP BACK TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL POST-FRONT WED AS MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW WITH A RETURN TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE WIND GUSTS AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT NEAR 10 KTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.
LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA AND
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WEEKEND THAT MOISTURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PRESENT MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
933 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
SOUNDINGS FROM OAX...ABR...AND LBF...SHOW THAT THE MOIST LAYER
WAS VERY SHALLOW THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING JUST
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. IN ADDITION...THE RAP IS SHOWING
DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY AND
WEST. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN MOST
AREAS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW
20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST SD AND BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER SW
MN AND NW IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
NEAR TO RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED GUSTY...WHICH IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXY. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS HAVE NOT RISEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 30S. FAIRLY SUBSTANCIAL CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION IS
ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE TYPICAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE VALUES.
THE BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...KEY ELEMENTS FOR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING. CIRRUS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN THICK THIS MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WELL MIXED SOUNDING BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
MIXING...LIKELY IN THE 850:800 MB LAYER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST OUT OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY MID-DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT...NOT SOLD ON THIS SOLN...BUT INSTEAD A FAIRLY STOUT
DROP IN DEW POINTS AS WE TAP INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT.
HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 40-45 KNOTS
OF FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF THIS WIND FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT
GUSTS THIS AFTN.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID-LVL CLOUD
DECK WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND THIS COULD BLANKET
THE REGION ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
EXPECT BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 MPH. COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO ADVECT
IN...RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY.
DISREGARDED THE GFS...AS IT IS A COLD OUTLIER...AND FAVORED A
THERMAL PROFILE CLOSER TO THE GEM...ECMWF AND NAM. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO ADVECT IN.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT A VERY NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM AND BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PROBABLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SEE TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH HIGHER...SO HIGHS
COULD VERY WELL END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DID NOT
CHANGE HIGHS MUCH...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WENT WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S EXPECTED.
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS...BUT QUITE THE SPREAD
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT SOME
POINT BRINGING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCLEAR. THUS MONDAY COULD REALISTICALLY END UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE 50S TO 70S. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER RECENT RUNS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS
BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ALMOST
EVERY RUN. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD AS WELL...AND HONESTLY NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. SO STAYING NEAR
SUPERBLEND SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH GIVES 50S AND 60S...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...BUT EVEN THIS IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MARGINAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL VEER BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS FOR
FSD AND SUX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO HURON LATER
TONIGHT...AND A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY. DEEP MIXING WILL
PULL DOWN DEW POINTS INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREAWIDE WILL AVERAGE 18-30 PERCENT WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SW MN AND NW IOWA. THE HIGHEST WINDS HOWEVER
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS TO
YANKTON...WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RH
VALUES MAY STAY A FEW PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LVLS IN SW MN AND NW
IOWA...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE THOSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUE
NEGLIGIBLE. SNOW MELT HAS LEFT THE GROUND SOMEWHAT
SATURATED/MOIST...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ABUNDANT PRAIRIE GRASS AND
BRUSH IS VERY DRY AND CONDUCIVE TO BURNING. WILL ISSUE AN RFW FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA TO MONITOR WILL BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE RH VALUES
MAY PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT. SHOULD WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN
FORECAST...A BRIEF RFW MAY BE NEEDED.
CONSENSUS MODEL DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN ON FRIDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE THE LOWER RH VALUES
WILL EXIST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NEXT DAY FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL BE SUNDAY. SUNDAY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND RH VALUES. IN FACT RH VALUES COULD EVEN
END UP A BIT LOWER. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ257-258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
237 PM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AROUND CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA RANGING FROM UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S AND SKIES ARE SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN FACT...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN
CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE
CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO. A
SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEVADA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE INITIAL TROUGH...AS CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ECHOS
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY INTO NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AS
WELL AS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF HINT AT AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY...AND GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEEING SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE WITH THE DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SLOW TO CLIMB
BUT HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL ARIZONA NICELY
EVEN AFTER BEING COMPLETELY OVERCAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY AND PEAKING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SONORA BY LATE
TONIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AGAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY.
SATURDAY A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXPANDS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON STATE LATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR LOW THAT MIGRATED TO
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE BAJA TIP THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE NICELY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WIND PATTERN SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO
A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE. AS SUCH...INCREASING PWAT VALUES HOVERING AROUND 0.75
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY AND FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS /700MB - 300MB/ MAY
GENERATE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LATEST RUN OF ECMWF HAS HIGHER MOISTURE PAINTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS QUICKLY BRINGS IN PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF WHEN THE ECMWF DOES. STILL A TOSS UP THIS FAR
OUT...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS REMAIN LARGELY NORTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. SOME VIRGA
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND TRENDS...WITH MODELS SUPPORTING A
SWITCH TO N/NW DIRECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BACKING TO A MORE
E/NE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TIMING IN WIND SHIFTS IS LOWER THAN
TYPICAL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH ANY OCCASIONAL
STRONGER NORTH GUST ABATING WITH SUNSET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE A LOT MORE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS
ONE WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN FACT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TRENDING UPWARD WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
916 AM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY THICK OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERING THE STATE OF ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. CLEARLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BEGAN
AROUND 3 AM MST AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT OF CLEAR SKIES
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE MARCHING
EASTWARD WITH CLEARLY LATER TODAY. THE THICK CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO
TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES. AS SUCH...OUR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SAW
IMPACTS FROM THE CLOUD LAYERS AS WELL. WARM MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE
NOTED ALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SKY HARBOR RECORDING A LOW OF
68 DEGREES. IF THIS HOLDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE A NEW DAILY
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. MANY LOCATIONS SAW AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN SEVERAL AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM YUMA AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR PHOENIX SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL NOSE OF WARM AIR AROUND 500MB WHERE
THE LAYER WAS COMPLETELY SATURATED AND A VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER
BELOW EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE. COMBINED THE VIRGA SHOWERS AND THE
STRONG NOSE OF WARM AIR...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE AT MANY
LOCATIONS SAW JUMP IN DEGREES THIS MORNING.
ASIDE FROM MORNING UPDATES...WHICH SEEMED TO BE PRETTY MINOR...WILL
BE INTERESTED TO SEE MODEL UPDATES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU MAR 12/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FAIRLY MOIST MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH ALL OF
ARIZONA WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOSTLY REFLECTING OFF THE MID CLOUDS...BUT
THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME AREAS OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HRRR INITIALIZED THIS BAND OF
SPRINKLES FAIRLY WELL AND PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL EEK INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONLY
MINIMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINK THE METRO PHOENIX AREA WILL BE IN
FOR A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE SUN APPEARS JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THIS COULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOW
TO MID 60S COMMONPLACE...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR
WESTERN DESERTS. WILL SEE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT...BUT ONLY AFFECTING FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
REACHING NEAR 582DM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOWER 90S APPEARING ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR
MONDAY WHILE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C OR EVEN LOWER 20S...WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
AND MIDDLE 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE AREN/T QUITE IN
RECORD TERRITORY...BUT GETTING CLOSE.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS INCREASING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO IS SHOWN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COAST. WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE LOW IN MEXICO. MODELS DON/T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE INCREASE SO FAR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH PLAYS OUT...AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES. WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET A BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL MANAGE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA FL120...WILL PRODUCE
A LOT OF VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX METRO. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING SOUTHEAST AND EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS COMMONLY 25
KNOTS...NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOCATIONS
THAT DEVELOP LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME MEASURE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE A LOT MORE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS
ONE WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN FACT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TRENDING UPWARD WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO SPREAD OVR THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TO THE ERN MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD N-S TROUGH FROM IDAHO DOWN TO S
CALIF. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE TEMPS UP THIS MORNING.
READINGS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING (4 AM) WERE STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS A FEW AREAS...WITH PUEBLO THE COOLEST AT 39. MOST OF THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS WERE STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. REGIONAL RADARS OVER
THE GREATER COLO REGION WERE INDICATING ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS
WAS LIKELY VIRGA FROM HIGH TO MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
TODAY...
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTDVD AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE NSSL 4KM WRF
ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS DATASETS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF THIS
INFORMATION. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT (IT ONLY GOES OUT TO 23 UTC
AS OF THIS WRITING).
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WORK DOWN THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S TO L70S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ARK RVR MAINLY FROM LA JUNTA EAST TO THE KS
BORDER. 40S AND 50S WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS LATER TODAY WILL OCCUR MAINLY ABOVE TREELINE ALONG THE
CONTDVD. A FEW CG LTG FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD. THE PLAINS WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AND EXPECT A LOW
OVERCAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT.
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS REACHING TO ABOUT 40. 20S AND 30S WILL
OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO PATTERN EVOLUTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 7 KFT. MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO WEST OF I-25. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 7 KFT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 9 KFT...WHILE THE
PEAKS WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO HOLD ON TO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS WILL
END BY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S...WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TROUGH PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT THEN DEVELOPS DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
BKN HIGH CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING MVFR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. CHANCE OF
PRECIP...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE RAIN SHOWERS...FOR FRI MORNING
IS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE TAF SITES. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS TO IFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE TO N
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSER
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As of 18Z, regional radars indicated convective initiation near the
Alabama-Florida border, and from TLH southeast to around CTY in the
Florida Big Bend. This area of low-level moisture flux convergence
arcing from southeast Alabama to the Suwannee River basin is
expected to become more convectively active over the next few hours.
Latest objective RAP analysis shows SBCAPE around 1500 j/kg with
effective deep layer shear of 30-35 knots, which is similar to what
was expected based on a modified 12Z Tallahassee sounding. This
combination of moderate shear and instability should be sufficient
to produce some organized thunderstorms this afternoon, and a severe
storm or two can`t be ruled out. The main threat would be damaging
wind gusts. With increasing low-level forcing between 21Z and 03Z as
a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast, thunderstorms
should congeal into clusters with time - and this is when organized
cold pools and damaging wind gusts would become more likely, along
with heavy rainfall. Convection should diminish in coverage and
intensity after 03Z and be focused primarily in the northwestern
parts of the forecast area. The remainder of the overnight period
should see low stratus advancing into the area from the east, a
chance of some patchy fog, and continued above normal lows.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Friday, the upper level pattern will consist of a mid/upper ridge
over California, extending into the Great Basin, and another ridge
over much of the Southeast. Much of the country will be under the
influence of a large, broad trough. Embedded within the trough are
three distinct waves: one over the Northern Plains, one over
western Mexico and the Southwest, and a final one over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Associated CONUS low
pressure systems at the surface are forecast to be over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Through Saturday night, the Mississippi Valley anomalies will
converge on the Northeast. The wave over western Mexico will
continue to drift south and cutoff a low over Mexico Saturday
night. The northern stream trough will move east over the eastern
third of the CONUS and strengthen as the Mississippi Valley waves
merge with another wave diving out of Manitoba/Ontario into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, the wedge of high pressure
along the Eastern Seaboard should hold through Thursday as the
Lower Mississippi Valley low moves essentially due north. As the
surface lows begin to merge Friday night and move east, the wedge
should break down. This will clear a path for the cold front
associated with the now merged frontal system to move through the
Tri-State region Saturday through Saturday night.
An area of light to moderate rain should be expected Friday
morning along the Panhandle coast as remnant forcing from a
surface trough moving off the Peninsula overnight, and veering
flow over relatively cooler shelf waters resulting in sloping
isentropic surfaces combine forces. Much of the shower activity on
Friday however, will be focused along the wedge front remaining in
place across the Tri-State region. Though due to an influx of mid-
level dry air, convection should remain rather shallow. Friday
night through Saturday night will feature a gradual west-to-east
increase in PoPs associated with the passing front. There is
consensus that the front will be weakening along its journey, so
the best chance for rain with the front will be west of a line
from Tallahassee to Albany.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
A transition to a drier weather pattern is expected through the
extended range. High temperatures should remain above average, in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Rain chances may increase once again
around mid to late week as a weakening shortwave (remnants of
cutoff over Mexico) approaches from the west.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
VFR conditions are prevailing at our terminals at 18Z, and that
is generally expected through the early evening. Some IFR VIS
restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, with
chances of +SHRA and +TSRA highest between 19Z and 02Z. A cold
front will push into the area from the northeast this evening,
bringing moderate easterly breezes and lowering CIGS. The ceilings
should fall through MVFR range and into LIFR/IFR later tonight.
The low CIGS may persist through much of the morning on Friday.
&&
.Marine...
Moderate south/southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday.
Behind the front Saturday night/Sunday morning a transition to
light winds and low seas is expected as calm high pressure drops
into the Southeast.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Sufficient low-level moisture is forecast to remain in place over
the next several days, with no fire weather concerns anticipated.
&&
.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts today through Friday should average around 1".
Localized higher amounts up to 4 inches could be possible across
south Georgia and southeast Alabama. QPF associated with the front
should remain on the order of a half of an inch or less. The
aforementioned isolated higher amounts could have a minor impact
on area rivers should it fall over a basin.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 78 62 78 60 / 50 60 40 50 20
Panama City 65 71 64 69 60 / 30 60 60 60 20
Dothan 59 72 60 78 57 / 70 70 50 50 10
Albany 57 70 57 78 57 / 80 60 50 50 30
Valdosta 62 79 61 79 60 / 50 40 30 50 30
Cross City 66 82 63 80 62 / 30 20 30 30 20
Apalachicola 64 70 63 69 63 / 20 60 50 60 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for South
Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS LOW
WAS WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA INCREASING
SE WINDS THERE AND HELPING TO DIRECT WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION.
TODAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA AHEAD
OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH EVEN LOWER 50S FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA MID CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY THIN OUT SCNTRL AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT. DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INDICATES BEST LIFT WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO SOME MODEST INCREASE IN Q-
VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER THERE COULD BE SOME LGT PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE BEST
MOISTENING/LIFT FM 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS REALIZED. INCLUDED
BRIEF CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST AS SFC WARMING FM FRONT WILL LAG
WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO
FREEZING AT 12Z AROUND TIME LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN HWO AS PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL
ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY AND OCCURRENCE WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND THE FREEZING MARK EAST TO THE
MID 40S FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DECREASE ON FRI MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE AT KCMX AND KSAW AROUND THE END OF THE TAF TIME...BUT WAS
LOW PROBABILITY SO LEFT IT OUT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
325 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH PASSED
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLIER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AMID BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. WITH SUCH A DRY SURFACE LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AS THIS
CONVECTION IS SHOWING UP ON THE HRRR MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO DRY AND
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...MOST OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
UNDER THIS RIDGE. LATER ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE WITH ACCUMULATING PRECIP AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS HAVE HONED IN A BIT MORE WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC AS IT
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. THE GFS HIT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES WELL WITH QPF AND WAS A COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AND GET A STRONGER WORD OUT BY FRIDAY AS
THIS WILL BE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. AN ISOLATED ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY SW PHILLIPS AS IT MAY BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
BRING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND MONTANA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH THE ECMWF TIMES IT FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY
AND THE GFS HAS IT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING
DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SUNDAYS HIGHS. WILL SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD TURN INTO SNOW
SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON A TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GFS CURRENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BROADBRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR.
CLOUDS: FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
WINDS: THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY. TFJ
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BIG MUDDY CREEK HAS CONTINUED TO RISE SINCE EARLY THIS WEEK AS
RECENT SNOW MELT AND GROUND THAW HAS RELEASED THE SPRING SURFACE
FLOW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...STAFF FROM THE GLASGOW NWS OFFICE
MEASURED THE CREEK LEVEL NEAR ANTELOPE AT 11.57 FEET. FLOOD STAGE
IS 12.0 FEET. SOME ADDITIONAL RISE IS STILL POSSIBLE LEADING INTO
THIS WEEKEND. NOT SURE WHERE THE CREEK WILL CREST AT THIS POINT. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS
AREA.
SNOW MELT HAS ALSO BROUGHT RISING WATER TO FRENCHMAN CREEK AND
POPLAR RIVER. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ICE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER
BETWEEN TERRY AND GLENDIVE. A SMALL ICE JAM HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A
BEND OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN GLENDIVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RISES AS OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
RIVER FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE ICE JAMS AND RESULTANT FLOODING.
FORRESTER/BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHERIDAN.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
SOUNDINGS FROM OAX...ABR...AND LBF...SHOW THAT THE MOIST LAYER
WAS VERY SHALLOW THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING JUST
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. IN ADDITION...THE RAP IS SHOWING
DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY AND
WEST. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN MOST
AREAS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW
20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST SD AND BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER SW
MN AND NW IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
NEAR TO RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED GUSTY...WHICH IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXY. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS HAVE NOT RISEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 30S. FAIRLY SUBSTANCIAL CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION IS
ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE TYPICAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE VALUES.
THE BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...KEY ELEMENTS FOR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING. CIRRUS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN THICK THIS MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WELL MIXED SOUNDING BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
MIXING...LIKELY IN THE 850:800 MB LAYER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST OUT OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY MID-DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT...NOT SOLD ON THIS SOLN...BUT INSTEAD A FAIRLY STOUT
DROP IN DEW POINTS AS WE TAP INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT.
HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 40-45 KNOTS
OF FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF THIS WIND FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT
GUSTS THIS AFTN.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID-LVL CLOUD
DECK WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND THIS COULD BLANKET
THE REGION ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
EXPECT BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 MPH. COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO ADVECT
IN...RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY.
DISREGARDED THE GFS...AS IT IS A COLD OUTLIER...AND FAVORED A
THERMAL PROFILE CLOSER TO THE GEM...ECMWF AND NAM. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO ADVECT IN.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT A VERY NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM AND BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PROBABLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SEE TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH HIGHER...SO HIGHS
COULD VERY WELL END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DID NOT
CHANGE HIGHS MUCH...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WENT WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S EXPECTED.
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS...BUT QUITE THE SPREAD
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT SOME
POINT BRINGING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCLEAR. THUS MONDAY COULD REALISTICALLY END UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE 50S TO 70S. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER RECENT RUNS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS
BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ALMOST
EVERY RUN. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD AS WELL...AND HONESTLY NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. SO STAYING NEAR
SUPERBLEND SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH GIVES 50S AND 60S...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...BUT EVEN THIS IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH HON EARLY THIS EVENING...REACHING SIOUX FALLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SIOUX CITY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE LIKELY TO GUST
AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY. DEEP MIXING WILL
PULL DOWN DEW POINTS INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREAWIDE WILL AVERAGE 18-30 PERCENT WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SW MN AND NW IOWA. THE HIGHEST WINDS HOWEVER
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS TO
YANKTON...WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RH
VALUES MAY STAY A FEW PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LVLS IN SW MN AND NW
IOWA...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE THOSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUE
NEGLIGIBLE. SNOW MELT HAS LEFT THE GROUND SOMEWHAT
SATURATED/MOIST...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ABUNDANT PRAIRIE GRASS AND
BRUSH IS VERY DRY AND CONDUCIVE TO BURNING. WILL ISSUE AN RFW FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA TO MONITOR WILL BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE RH VALUES
MAY PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT. SHOULD WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN
FORECAST...A BRIEF RFW MAY BE NEEDED.
CONSENSUS MODEL DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN ON FRIDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE THE LOWER RH VALUES
WILL EXIST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NEXT DAY FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL BE SUNDAY. SUNDAY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND RH VALUES. IN FACT RH VALUES COULD EVEN
END UP A BIT LOWER. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ257-258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AS
WELL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
FIELDS ARE INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS NW ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE INFLECTION POINT REACHES
OUR AREA...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL SCALE DOWN THE PRE MIDNIGHT WEATHER
GRIDS TO INCLUDE LIKELY AND CHC LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF THE
WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL LEVEL PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...AT MID-AFTERNOON IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE MILD
OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES AT MANY POINTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON
RADAR, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-24.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY RAINY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
SINCE A FINAL SHOT OF SHOWERS IS FORECSAT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ENDING TIME OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MID-
STATE. HOWEVER, BEFORE MAKING ANY SUCH CHANGE, WOULD LIKE TO GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT NEW DATA TO MORE DEFINITIVELY
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS PRIOR
TO SATURDAY AND WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE
SAME.
RIGHT NOW, EXPECT RAIN TOTALS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY NIGHT TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE
GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BY 12Z FRI, WINDS AT 850MB SHOULD BE
BLOWING AT 35 TO 40 KTS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EAST. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, COULD RECEIVED ANOTHER ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY`S
WEATHER, AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, TO DETERMINE IF WE
NEED TO EXTEND THE END POINT OF OUR FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION,
CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, THAT WILL SEE THE FRONT COME THROUGH
AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY).
LONG TERM...STILL EXPECT A DRY SPELL FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND BRING ALONG ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY--WHICH
WILL BRING US UP TO THE EVE OF THE VERNAL EQUINOX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 56 60 57 69 / 90 100 100 60
CLARKSVILLE 55 62 58 65 / 90 100 100 80
CROSSVILLE 50 56 54 64 / 90 100 100 50
COLUMBIA 57 59 57 69 / 100 100 100 60
LAWRENCEBURG 57 61 57 70 / 100 100 100 50
WAVERLY 57 63 58 68 / 100 100 100 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>008-023>027-056>061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO WAS OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
AND GUSTY QUITE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE/CIRRUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...TEMPERING WARMING AND HIGHS A BIT. STILL
PLENTY WARM FOR MARCH 12...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS SOME 15F TO
25F ABOVE NORMAL.
12.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT FOR GFS AND ITS ABOUT 5F
HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS FROM EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN TO MO.
SOLUTIONS OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES TONIGHT...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI/FRI
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING/PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEEK
LOOKS TO END WITH DRY/QUIET WEATHER. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT
IN STORE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST 925MB AIR OVER THE FCST AREA AT 12Z FRI. LOWS TONIGHT
CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI
TO NEAR KLSE AND KDMX AT 18Z FRI...THEN WELL EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA BY 00Z SAT. STRONGER OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE
FRONT A BIT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AT LEAST 925MB WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI. FRI TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...AS WARM OR WARMER
THAN TODAY WITH THE WARM START AND DEEPER MIXING WITH 925MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER
IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +3C TO -2C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS 5-
10KTS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED MOST LOCATIONS...AND FRI
NIGHT LOWS MOSTLY AT/ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. COLUMN QUITE DRY THRU
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME POST FRONTAL LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS
BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT AND FAVORED
WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN SUN...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
12.12Z REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TREND OF A RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT/SAT NIGHT. DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES. REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
RIDGING TO BUILD/AMPLIFY ALONG THE PAC COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS CAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH MUCH OF THE
IMPACT OF THIS WAVE ON THE AREA BEYOND SUN NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT PERIOD REMAINS GOOD.
COOLER CANADIAN SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT/
SAT NIGHT. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALSO SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUNDINGS AND TIME-
HGT X-SECTIONS SHOW A GENERALLY DRY COLUMN OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT
NIGHT FOR CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SAT LOOKING TO BE A DAY SIMILAR
TO WED...WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. COOLER
NIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA SUN ON BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. 925MB TEMPS
PROGGED BACK IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE BY 00Z MON WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AT LEAST 925MB SUN AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 500MB FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT...MUCH LIKE TODAY. GIVEN
THE CLOUD POTENTIAL AND COLD GROUND...MIXED LAYER MAY BE SHALLOWER
OR NOT FULLY MIX SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME GRADIENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SUN NIGHT WITH WARMEST OF THE 925MB AIR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT OVER THE AREA AT 12Z MON. GENERALLY USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MON AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED NIGHT/THU.
12.00Z/12.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
MON...FOR RIDGING TO BE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAN AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. RIDGING REMAINS OVER WESTERN NOAM TUE WHILE TROUGHING DEEPENS
INTO EASTERN NOAM...LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THRU THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TOWARD THE REGION WED/THU...BUT STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF AK QUICKLY REBUILDS THE WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU IT. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
FOR A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT BELOW AVERAGE WITH
ANY SHORTWAVE DETAILS/PRECIP CHANCES.
SHORTWAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES QUICKLY MANIFEST THEMSELVES ON
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION MONDAY.
PLENTY OF BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ON THIS FRONTAL
TIMING. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE FRONT MOVING THRU THE
FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAY YET BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SMALL -RA ACROSS THE
NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA MON REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER MILD/WARM
DAY MON WITH THE AREA LOOKING TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MUCH OF THE
DAY. CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS SPREAD IN FOR MON NIGHT
INTO WED...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL. WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER NOW...LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED LOOKING TO
REMAIN ABOVE THE MID MARCH NORMALS. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THRU THE
WESTERN NOAM RIDGING BY LATER WED AND THU. 12.12Z GFS WOULD SPREAD A
MAINLY -RA CHANCE INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU WHILE 12.12Z ECMWF
BUILDS CAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SMALL MAINLY -RA
CHANCE ON THU...PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...OKAY FOR NOW. SIDED WITH
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON NIGHT-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING RESULTING IN HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL SUNDOWN/
INVERSION RETURNS. SEE SOME THREAT FOR LLWS LATER TONIGHT WITH RAP/
NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KTS OF WIND FROM ROUGHLY 03-
09Z. RAP IS STRONGER WHILE THE NAM MORE BORDER-LINE FOR LLWS. WILL
NOT ADD TO TAFS RIGHT NOW...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE ARE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN BRISK AND WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT. ANY CONCERN WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS AND IF DEW POINTS DROP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MIXED SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...MIN RH/S
COULD DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE...MORE 25-30 PERCENT IF DEW
POINTS END UP AROUND 30F. THIS PLUS SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AND DRYING FINE FUELS RAISES THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUN
AFTERNOON. IF MIXING/DRYING ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE
THERE IS LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
MUCH WARMER SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AT 925 MB. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS WENT CLOSE TO WHAT HAPPENED ON THAT DAY. THE ONLY
CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WAS TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES WHERE THE
SNOW COVER...CLOUDS...AND FOG KEPT THEM COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
ON FRIDAY...THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
WERE ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
WHAT OCCURRED ON THAT DAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WAS THAT THE SNOW
IS NOW GONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...SO
WARMED THOSE AREAS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO TAKE THIS IN ACCOUNT.
MEANWHILE IN CLAYTON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...THESE AREAS WERE KEPT COOLER
BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...SO ALSO TOOK THIS ACCOUNT AND
WARMED THESE AREA UP TOO.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND GEM...AND NAM AND ECMWF WITH THEIR
925 MB AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH COLDER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. ONE STRIKING THING THAT SHOWS
UP IN THE GRIDS IS THAT THE GFS AND GEM BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THE ACTUAL GFS AND GEM MODELS BY 10 TO 16
DEGREES. THIS TREND ACTUALLY CONTINUES ALL OF THE WAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS TELLING US THAT THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN WAY TOO
COLD WITH THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS
LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ITS BIAS CORRECTED GRID AND THE ONE
BEING PRODUCED BY THE MODEL. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS PERFORMING
MUCH BETTER WITH ITS TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THIS...WENT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...IT HAS
BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO COLD....SO TRENDED IT MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GRID.
ON MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOVE THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY...THUS...IT TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS A RESULT IT
HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE EVEN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WITH NO
CLEAR WINNER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...JUST STAYED WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON TUESDAY...THE GFS HAS WARMED ITS 925 MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 0 TO 4C RANGE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. DUE
TO THIS JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN AS WE TRANSITION BACK TO THE
BASE STATE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE HENDON WHEELER DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE VERY STRONG MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ SIGNAL WHICH IS IN
PHASE 7/ WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA/ RAPIDLY WEAKENS. IF THIS WAS AN ACTUAL MJO IT WOULD
TRANSITIONED INTO PHASE 8. HOWEVER IN REALITY WE HAVE A WESTWARD
MOVING EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE INTERACTING CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING KELVIN WAVE. THESE TWO CAUSED ENOUGH ENHANCEMENT
IN THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF HAWAII THAT THEY IMITATED WHAT WOULD
NORMALLY OCCUR WITH A MJO IN PHASE 7. WE SAW THE TYPICAL ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH HELPED
BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY AND
ALSO KEPT THE POLAR JET MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...THUS
KEEPING THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE REGION. AROUND MARCH
17TH...THESE TWO WAVES WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IS A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE ANOMALOUS
TROPICAL FORCING. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
THE BASE STATE AND MORE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MARCH
TEMPERATURES AND AT TIMES THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
THE LATEST CFS VERSION 2 IS DOING REALLY WELL AT DEPICTING THIS
CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON MIXING RESULTING IN HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL
SUNDOWN/INVERSION RETURNS. SEE SOME THREAT FOR LLWS LATER TONIGHT
WITH RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KTS OF WIND FROM
ROUGHLY 03-09Z. RAP IS STRONGER WHILE THE NAM MORE BORDER-LINE FOR
LLWS. WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS RIGHT NOW...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW MUCH MIXING CAN LOWER THE DEW POINTS
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THOUGHTS IS THAT THE DEW POINTS COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. IF THIS DOES INDEED
OCCUR...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DEW POINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND DEW
POINTS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN DRYING THE FINE FUELS SUCH
GRASS RAPIDLY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ANY GRASS FIRES
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL QUICKLY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE