Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/11/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
...SPOTTY EVENING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SOME
EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
IN COLORADO YET...BUT VERY CLOSE...OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
NEW MEXICO...JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER...SOUTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND EXPANDING A
LITTLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR STILL WANTS
TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS INTO BACA AND
PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES COUNTY THIS EVENING. IT HAS
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. LAST NIGHT`S 4 KM NSSL WRF
DEPICTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. SO...IN ADDITION TO SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...HAVE ALSO SPREAD ISOLATED POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH BUT THAT`S WHY THE POPS ARE SO LOW. SHOWERS WILL FALL AS
SNOW ABOVE 9000 TO 10000 FEET WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR 2
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD EVEN BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING SO WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
FOR THAT AREA.
EVERYTHING SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...LATE IN
THE DAY...WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS POP UP IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. READINGS
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...BOTH AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GREAT
BASIN SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PASSING WEAK
TROUGH SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SFC-H7 UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER TROUGH
DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG OR COLD...HOWEVER...WITH H5 TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND -20C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGED BETWEEN 6-8C THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...COULD STILL
SEE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE FLIGHT
AREA IS TRIGGERING A FEW SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE HAVE EVEN
BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER OVER
THE NEW MEXICO SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTHWEST OF TRINIDAD. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 50...ALTHOUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF 50...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK REGION...COULD ALSO
SEE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY. BY AND LARGE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...BUT SOME SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 OR 10000 FEET. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. MOST OF TUESDAY
WILL BE VFR...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO INITIALIZE
THE FORECAST FROM AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
LAST EVENING`S SNOW EVENT THAT MODELS PREDICTED FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED.
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA WAS ALSO PRETTY MUCH ABSENT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT MODELS SHOWED SWINGING SEWRD OVER THIS AREA LAST
EVENING IS JUST NOW PASSING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR ACCORDING TO
THE RAP AND GOES IR H20 VAPOR IMAGERY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD MARKING
ITS PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT MTN LOCATIONS ARE ALSO
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER TEENS AND 20S THE RULE.
HOWEVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS AROUND GRAND LAKE AND LAKE GRANBY
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR TODAY...THE WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW SFC-700MB WINDS EAST OF
THE MTNS VEERING FROM W-SWLY TO N-NWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR ALL OF THE SUNSHINE TODAY...HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A SHADE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD TODAY/S
HIGHS SHOULD BE 1-3C WARMER. HIGH COUNTRY TEMPS ALSO A DEG OR TWO
WARMER TODAY.
TONIGHT...RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY WITH PERSISTING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE A 1-3 DEG C WARMUP IN MIN TEMPS.
WHEREAS MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT A
DEG OR TWO WITH A CLEAR DRY ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS CLOUDS
MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON
SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LIGHT SWLY WINDS
AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING...THEN N-NWLY BY AROUND MIDDAY
WITH SOME TERMINALS GOING A LITTLE E OF N. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 9 KTS. SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS DOMINANT TYPE. TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
THEIR NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERN BY AROUND SUNSET UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
406 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
LAST EVENING`S SNOW EVENT THAT MODELS PREDICTED FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED.
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA WAS ALSO PRETTY MUCH ABSENT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT MODELS SHOWED SWINGING SEWRD OVER THIS AREA LAST
EVENING IS JUST NOW PASSING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR ACCORDING TO
THE RAP AND GOES IR H20 VAPOR IMAGERY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD MARKING
ITS PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT MTN LOCATIONS ARE ALSO
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER TEENS AND 20S THE RULE.
HOWEVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS AROUND GRAND LAKE AND LAKE GRANBY
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR TODAY...THE WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW SFC-700MB WINDS EAST OF
THE MTNS VEERING FROM W-SWLY TO N-NWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR ALL OF THE SUNSHINE TODAY...HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A SHADE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD TODAY/S
HIGHS SHOULD BE 1-3C WARMER. HIGH COUNTRY TEMPS ALSO A DEG OR TWO
WARMER TODAY.
TONIGHT...RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY WITH PERSISTING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE A 1-3 DEG C WARMUP IN MIN TEMPS.
WHEREAS MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT A
DEG OR TWO WITH A CLEAR DRY ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS CLOUDS
MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON
SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY
MID-MORNING...THEN N-NWLY BY AROUND MIDDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 13KTS. SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS DOMINANT CLOUD TYPE. TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD RETURN
TO THEIR NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERN BY AROUND SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
352 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH CO TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE
WESTERN LOBE OF THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SWD THROUGH UT AND
NV...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EWD AND SWD TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH OF
CO BY 00-03Z THIS EVENING. SO...BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY SHOWERS
WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP BEING
OBSERVED...IS A HINT THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY OVERDOING THE
QPF POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT
THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NMM AND ARW...INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED
THIS IN FAVOR OF THE RAP AND NAM...WHICH HAVE LESS PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY THE SRN MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE MORNING. IN
ADDITION...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD...SINCE THERE SEEMS
TO BE A BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING THERE
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. POPS WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER 03Z AND
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO ZERO BY 12Z TUESDAY.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AS H7
TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT MINUS TWO DEG OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
PLEASANT SPRING-LIKE DAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MILD CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS GETTING JUST BELOW
FREEZING...AND TEENS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LIKELY. ANY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND L70S OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF COOLING (50S/60S) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING OUT TO 10 DAYS...NO SIGNIF PRECIP EVENTS APPEAR TO BE ON
THE HORIZON. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLD-SCT SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MTN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1039 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. DENSE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS SATURATE...AND A COMBO
OF ADVECTION AND IN-SITU FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE COLD WATERS AND
SNOWPACK RESPECTIVELY. HRRR AND NARRE CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS
DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY WELL. HAVE INCLUDED ORANGE COUNTY IN THE
ADVISORY BASED ON OBS TRENDS AS WELL.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
AFTER 06-08Z SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BUT FLOW MAY BE TOO
LIGHT TO AFFECT WIDESPREAD CHANGE IN CONDS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
10Z...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND/DROP
AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 150 TO 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 06-08Z. RAIN SHOULD TAPER
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES EAST.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE UPPER
30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE WITH DRYING
CONDS. A MILD DAY IS ON TAP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS BUILDING OVERHEAD. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE
LOWER AND POTENTIALLY MIDDLE 50S IN THE CITY AND SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND MIDDLE 30S IN THE NYC METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND IN THE
30S IN/AROUND NYC.
LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THAT LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS IT APPROACHES...A SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH...STRENGTHENING THE
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THIS LOW WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THEN.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT PTYPE WILL BECOME A CONCERN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
PLAIN RAIN FOR NYC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...TEMPS WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT...AND PRECIP
CHANGES BACK TO ALL RAIN. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY DURING
THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50.
LOW PRES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...TOUCHING OFF SOME
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT NOT BEFORE SIGNIFICANT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM W TO E BETWEEN 07-09Z.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z.
THERAFTER...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW IMPROVEMENT. RESIDUAL FOG
IN THE MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TO VFR WITH NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
BECOME NW 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAY BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NGT-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...BECOMING IFR IN RASN EARLY CHANGING TO RA. LGT SE SFC WND.
.SUN...MFVR. CHC -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WITH MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS MAY REACH 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCA LEVELS. SEAS BUILD TO
TO 3 TO 4 FT ON OCEAN WATERS...AND COULD BE CLOSE TO 5 FT ON EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY SCA HEADLINES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDS
TRANQUIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRES PASSES OVER THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AND OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS A RESULT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME AIR TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER/STREAM ICE TO BEGIN
ROTTING. BUT COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT
AND RATE OF ICE BREAK-UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MPS/DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MPS/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
929 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOLLOWS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
SNOW OR A MIX EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT DURATION
PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF MA/CT 03Z-06Z AND 06Z TO 09Z OVER EASTERN MA AND RI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING UNTIL 09Z-12Z FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THIS MATCHES
UP WELL WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. SO ISSUES WITH PTYPE AS TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE IN THE L40S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE
M30S. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST LIGHT RAINFALL WITH HOURLY
RATES OF 0.05 OR LESS.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL...UPSTREAM VSBYS REMAIN GREATER THAN 1
MILE ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NYC AREA AND COASTAL CT. THE EXCEPTION
IS INTERIOR NJ WHERE VSBYS ARE BELOW 1 MILE. GIVEN FROPA IS FAIRLY
QUICK/PROGRESSIVE THIS RESULTS IN LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING QUICKLY
TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND WEST BY DAYBREAK. THUS DENSE FOG UNLIKELY
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTION MAY HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE CT RVR VLY IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND
CONFINED TO THE CT RVR VLY.
THUS OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
===================================================================
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HEADING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH FORCING AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR A PERIOD OF
RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE RUNNING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...SO MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND PWATS OVER 1 INCH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAIN SOUTH OF THE PIKE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. WE MAY
SEE A QUARTER INCH OR PERHAPS EVEN A TAD MORE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE REGION...WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS AND SOME OF IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL ALSO HAVE
TO WATCH PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME BLACK ICE. APPEARS THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL SEE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
*** HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL UP INTO THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS TOUCHING 60 IN RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA ***
WEDNESDAY...
ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THIS A RESULT OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR BRINGING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED
NIGHT FOR THE REAL COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...WED
IS A CLASSIC DAY FOR HIGH TEMPS TO SOAR 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUGGEST. WILL BE OFF TO A RELATIVELY MILD
START...850 TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND +4C AT 15Z AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA MAY HIT THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. SHOULD BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
PASSING FLURRY. OTHERWISE...LOWS BY DAYBREAK THU SHOULD BE IN THE
20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY...COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SNOW...WINTRY MIX AND RAIN SAT INTO SUN
* UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK
MODEL GUIDANCE...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL A LOT OF NUISANCE ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL GUIDANCE TREND IS SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT
BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER.
SECONDARY FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS
TO RADIATE OUT. ALREADY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE...BUT IT COULD BE A FEW
MORE DEGREES. FILTERED SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 20S AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
* THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON P-
TYPE ISSUES.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ESP DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT THE ONSET. SOME GUIDANCE LEANS
TOWARDS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...TO MIX THEN TO RAIN...WHILE OTHERS
SHOW A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN. CONCERN WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE
COLD SURFACE THANKS TO LARGE SNOW PACK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT AT THE ONSET A WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR...JUST LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF IT IS SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SAT MORNING
WILL PUSH A LOT OF WARM AIR INTO THE AREA TRANSITIONING ANY WINTRY
PRECIP TO RAIN. PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1-1.2 INCHES. LUCKILY THIS
WILL BE A COOL RAIN SO SNOW MELT WILL BE SLOW AND NOT CAUSE ANY
MAJOR ISSUES ON THE RIVERS. COULD SEE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WITHIN
URBAN REGIONS ESP IF STORM DRAINS ARE BLOCKED. THIS LLJ COULD ALSO
MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20-30 MPH.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...APPEARS THERE COULD BE A
LULL EITHER SAT NIGHT OR SUN BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
ON THE BACKSIDE. IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AND HOPEFULLY THE
DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG. ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPEARS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION BY 00Z.
THIS WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS. RAIN WILL NOT
LAST TOO LONG AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO PERHAPS EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 1Z AS RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION. RAIN
ENDS BY 8Z...BUT LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH THROUGH DAYBREAK.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS AS A SHIELD
OF RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION. RAIN IS GONE BY 6Z OR 7Z...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAIN AND FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR
MARINERS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE...ANY LEFT OVER FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONGEST
OF THE WINDS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN MOST WATERS...WHERE WE MAY FLIRT
WITH MARGINAL GALES. OTHERWISE...SCA HEADLINES WILL SURELY BE
NEEDED BUT SINCE ITS LATE 3RD PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ONE MORE SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR GALES MAY BE NECESSARY AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE CALM
AT THE ONSET BUT WILL QUICKLY BUILD/INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT LOWER
VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN AND SEAS BUILDING UP BETWEEN 8-12 FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
718 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES APPROACHES
LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND W/SW WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN SHARP TEMPS RISES ALONG THE COAST. THUS...WILL MAKE A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN/SNOW STILL A
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT RAIN IS SEEMING MORE LIKELY AT THE COAST AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.
THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PCPN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NE NJ AND LI...WHERE THERE COULD BE OF MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. TO THE NORTH...IT SHOULD BE SNOW BUT
WITH EVEN A LOWER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL PA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM.
AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED
ALL OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND IN SOME
CASES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT PICK UP IN THE SW FLOW. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF A RISE IS UNCERTAIN. NYC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS CLEAR BY NOONTIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOST OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH NYC METRO LIKELY IN THE MID 30S.
A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT NE INTO A CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFT/EVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN. IN
RECENT DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LIGHT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH UP
TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT FROM S TO N
DURING THE LATE AFT HOURS.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL
PROBABLY BE STUCK WITH BKN-OVC SKIES TO START. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TEMP OF THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE DELAYED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THINKING IS THAT WE END UP MOSTLY 50-55 ACROSS THE
AREA. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WNW WINDS AND NOTING THAT MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
COLD BIAS AS OF LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDS NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONSENSUS AT LEAST SHOWS A
SLOWING DOWN ON PCPN ONSET. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR FRIDAY AFTN FOR ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT...PASSES OVER OR NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A 500MB
LOW THEN POTENTIALLY HELPS FORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW...OR AT LEAST
SHARPEN A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH COULD AFFECT US ON SUNDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE INITIAL LOW...WITH THE
GFS FARTHEST SOUTH AND THE GGEM IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND A THERMAL PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT MIXED PCPN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SIMPLE. PCPN TYPE CAN BE FINE TUNED ONCE A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS.
ALSO HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD CAPPED AT CHC. ONE THING
THAT COULD BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 14Z WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 5 KT TO 10 KT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST...GENERALLY TO THE
LEFT OF 310 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY AT THE METRO NYC TERMINALS. THIS EVENING THE WIND
BECOMES LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 TRUE AROUND 12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 300 TRUE AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 TRUE AROUND 11 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 16Z TO 23Z 290 TRUE AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR EARLY...THEN MARGINAL VFR IN LIGHT RAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN RETURN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S...AND BRIEFLY 50S
WED...COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK-UP
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK.
THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT COULD
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
605 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES APPROACHES
LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND W/SW WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN SHARP TEMPS RISES ALONG THE COAST. THUS...WILL MAKE A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN/SNOW STILL A
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT RAIN IS SEEMING MORE LIKELY AT THE COAST AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.
THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PCPN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NE NJ AND LI...WHERE THERE COULD BE OF MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. TO THE NORTH...IT SHOULD BE SNOW BUT
WITH EVEN A LOWER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL PA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM.
AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED
ALL OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND IN SOME
CASES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT PICK UP IN THE SW FLOW. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF A RISE IS UNCERTAIN. NYC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS CLEAR BY NOONTIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOST OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH NYC METRO LIKELY IN THE MID 30S.
A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT NE INTO A CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFT/EVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN. IN
RECENT DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LIGHT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH UP
TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT FROM S TO N
DURING THE LATE AFT HOURS.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL
PROBABLY BE STUCK WITH BKN-OVC SKIES TO START. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TEMP OF THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE DELAYED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THINKING IS THAT WE END UP MOSTLY 50-55 ACROSS THE
AREA. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WNW WINDS AND NOTING THAT MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
COLD BIAS AS OF LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDS NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONSENSUS AT LEAST SHOWS A
SLOWING DOWN ON PCPN ONSET. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR FRIDAY AFTN FOR ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT...PASSES OVER OR NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A 500MB
LOW THEN POTENTIALLY HELPS FORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW...OR AT LEAST
SHARPEN A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH COULD AFFECT US ON SUNDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE INITIAL LOW...WITH THE
GFS FARTHEST SOUTH AND THE GGEM IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND A THERMAL PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT MIXED PCPN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SIMPLE. PCPN TYPE CAN BE FINE TUNED ONCE A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS.
ALSO HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD CAPPED AT CHC. ONE THING
THAT COULD BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 14Z. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AT
KTEB....KHPN...AND KISP. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
AFTER 13Z BEFORE ENDING AROUND 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE METRO AREA. WIND BECOMES MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY AT THE METRO NYC TERMINALS. THIS EVENING THE WIND BECOMES
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 300 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 11 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 11Z TO 14Z. WIND 16Z TO 23Z 290 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN RETURN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S...AND BRIEFLY 50S
WED...COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK-UP
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK.
THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT COULD
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES APPROACHES
LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PCPN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NE NJ AND LI...WHERE THERE COULD BE OF MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. TO THE NORTH...IT SHOULD BE SNOW BUT
WITH EVEN A LOWER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL PA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM.
AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED
ALL OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND IN SOME
CASES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT PICK UP IN THE SW FLOW. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF A RISE IS UNCERTAIN. NYC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS CLEAR BY NOONTIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOST OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH NYC METRO LIKELY IN THE MID 30S.
A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT NE INTO A CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFT/EVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN. IN
RECENT DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LIGHT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH UP
TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT FROM S TO N
DURING THE LATE AFT HOURS.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL
PROBABLY BE STUCK WITH BKN-OVC SKIES TO START. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TEMP OF THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE DELAYED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THINKING IS THAT WE END UP MOSTLY 50-55 ACROSS THE
AREA. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WNW WINDS AND NOTING THAT MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
COLD BIAS AS OF LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDS NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONSENSUS AT LEAST SHOWS A
SLOWING DOWN ON PCPN ONSET. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR FRIDAY AFTN FOR ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT...PASSES OVER OR NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A 500MB
LOW THEN POTENTIALLY HELPS FORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW...OR AT LEAST
SHARPEN A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH COULD AFFECT US ON SUNDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE INITIAL LOW...WITH THE
GFS FARTHEST SOUTH AND THE GGEM IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND A THERMAL PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT MIXED PCPN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SIMPLE. PCPN TYPE CAN BE FINE TUNED ONCE A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS.
ALSO HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD CAPPED AT CHC. ONE THING
THAT COULD BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 14Z. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AT
KTEB....KHPN...AND KISP. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
AFTER 13Z BEFORE ENDING AROUND 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE METRO AREA. WIND BECOMES MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY AT THE METRO NYC TERMINALS. THIS EVENING THE WIND BECOMES
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 300 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 11 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 11Z TO 14Z. WIND 16Z TO 23Z 290 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN RETURN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S...AND BRIEFLY 50S
WED...COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK-UP
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK.
THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT COULD
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Current fcst is fairly well on track once again, with the big
change tonight from last night being the almost unanimous
agreement with the numerical and hi-res guidance of a pessimistic
fog and especially low cig fcst. While most of the CWA will
experience widespread low cigs and possibly some areas of dense
fog, the absolute worst conditions are expected to the west of the
Apalachicola River. Did consider removing PoPs for tonight, but
with the showers fairly close off to the west and current Pops
only 15-20 percent, decided to leave them as is.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] While the optimistic HRRR was essentially
proven correct in the face of all of the remaining pessimistic
aviation guidance last night, it has come on board for overnight
tonight. As it stands now, low cigs are more likely than poor vis,
with low clouds already developing and moving onshore across much
of the FL Panhandle. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to
develop at all of the terminals except VLD, where MVFR conditions
should be the minima. Furthermore, where conditions do drop down
to IFR/LIFR levels overnight, MVFR cigs could hang on until the
early afternoon hours, with also Prob30 convective groups at DHN
and ABY.
&&
.Prev Discussion [326 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper trough over the Central and Southern Plains will
essentially remain in place through this period. The surface low
over the Tennessee Valley will lift northeastward, but the trailing
front will remain in place across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Cyclogenesis will occur on the front on Wednesday. This low will
lift northward to a position near Arkansas by 12Z Friday. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will nose down the eastern seaboard to the lee
of the Appalachians. Moisture will continue to gradually increase
across the local area. Rain chances will too as the upstream front
edges closer and isentropic ascent increases. By Thursday, PoPs will
be in the likely range across the northern half of the forecast
area. Nightly rounds of fog are expected and temp will remain well
above normal.
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
This will be an unsettled period. The upper trough in the Southern
Plains will eventually cut off and retrograde to the southwest into
western Mexico. Meanwhile, a northern stream system will slide
southeastward across the Great Lakes on Saturday and off the Mid
Atlantic coast by Sunday night. Eventually, this system will usher a
cold front into the region from the northwest. There is agreement
now in the latest runs of the GFS and Euro that the front will come
through on Monday with drier air in its wake. By Tuesday, we will
finally be able to pull PoPs from the forecast.
.Marine...
Light to moderate southeast winds will occasionally shift to
easterly during the overnight hours through the end of the work
week. Look for southerly winds by Saturday with shift to offshore
winds by late Sunday.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days as relative humidity levels will be well above critical
levels. Additionally, although dispersion indices will be on the
low-end of the scale, they should remain in an acceptable range.
.Hydrology...
A disturbed pattern in place will keep chances for rain elevated
through the weekend. Although the highest rainfall totals will stay
off to our west, we could pick up 1-2" of rain across the area by
Sunday. These totals may bring some area rivers into action stage,
but at this time, no flooding is forecast.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 61 83 63 83 64 / 20 30 20 50 50
Panama City 62 74 63 75 63 / 20 30 20 40 50
Dothan 63 80 63 80 64 / 20 50 30 60 70
Albany 60 81 62 82 62 / 10 40 30 70 70
Valdosta 61 84 63 83 64 / 20 30 20 60 50
Cross City 62 84 64 84 65 / 20 20 20 40 40
Apalachicola 62 75 63 76 64 / 20 30 20 30 40
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE THAT STICKS OUT IS THE
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST COMPRISED OF
SEVERAL LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAVE FORCED AMPLIFYING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RESULT OF THIS RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE 09/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE A WELL-DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AROUND 700MB. THE STRONGEST RIDGING
FEATURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 700-500MB...HOWEVER EVEN ABOVE THIS
LEVEL WHERE WV IMAGERY SHOWED MORE ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY...WE NOW SEE
A MORE RIDGED PATTERN AS HIGH AS 400MB. THE 700MB LEVEL AROUND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE THE DIVIDER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO BETWEEN DRY AND SUPPRESSED MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND THE MUCH
MORE MOIST AND LOWER LEVELS. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE
MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS KEEPING THE
COLDEST AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...THIS COLD AIR IS OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO OUR FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN SURFACE HIGH CENTER HAS PUSHED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PLACING OUR FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A GENERAL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED MOVING UP INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AT
THIS TIME. NOT SURE YOU CAN STILL CALL THIS A FRONT...BUT THE TROUGH
ITSELF IS SHOWN BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO CONTINUE TO PIVOT
BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERING OF
LATE DAY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
REGIONAL RADAR...BUT NOT GIVING UP ON THE POTENTIAL JUST YET. MOST
OF THE HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTING ALL DAY
THAT THIS WILL BE A LATE EVENT...AND THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
LATEST 16Z HRRR RUN. THIS PHILOSOPHY MAKES SENSE AS IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE THE INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH WITH ANY FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE TO GET
ANY APPRECIABLE UPDRAFTS GOING. WE ARE STILL CALLING THIS LIMITED
CONVECTION THOUGH...AS THE COLUMN IS CAPPED AT AROUND 10,000 FEET BY
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THIS WOULD NEED A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO OVERCOME...AND DO NOT THINK WE HAVE THE SETUP FOR
THAT TYPE OF LIFT TODAY. THEREFORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDER...AND
THE SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND PARAMETERIZED KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE LATE DAY SHOWERS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 00Z. UPDATED GRIDS NOW HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES (30%) DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE SUNCOAST
WHERE SURFACE FOCUS FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
AIDED BY A WEAK SEABREEZE...OR AT LEAST COASTAL CONVERGENCE AS THE
NEARSHORE WINDS GO THROUGH THEIR NORMAL DIURNAL WEAKENING.
SHOWERS...IF THEY REACH THE TAMPA BAY AREA MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 00Z
OR AFTER. EITHER WAY...ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO
LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE OF THE SHOWERS SHIFTING OFF
THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING
HOURS...AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY DRY.
BASED ON ALL THE GUIDANCE THIS FORECASTER CAN SEE...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE YOU GET AS FAR NORTH AS AROUND
BROOKSVILLE. WITH THE SUPPRESSIVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG AND
SOME DENSE FOG LOOKS HIGHER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY ARE QUITE
HIGH NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR VIS PROBLEMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH...AS THERE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH DIFFERENCE SYNOPTICALLY TO CAUSE THE DROP
OFF IS POTENTIAL SHOWN BY THE SREF. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...
A WARM SPRING-LIKE DAY LOOKS ON TAP AS THE UPPER RIDGING AND GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING BOOSTS TEMPS WILL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GRADIENT SETUP AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING
DO LOOK TO PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDING TO BURN OFF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPOTS...BUT THEREAFTER
LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THAN IS SHOWN IN TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS FOR
THIS TYPE OF MORE PURE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...BUT CAN NOT RULE IT
OUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL KEEP POPS ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE/THERMO
PROFILES...AND TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
WED-THU; AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MEXICO
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WEST OF
THE YUCATAN...WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING THEN TRACKING NORTH
ON IT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS FL AND THE
EAST GULF. THIS RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A WARM AND STABLE
PATTERN ALOFT WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDES INCREASING
MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERALLY KEEP JUST SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WED BUT WEAKENS A BIT THU AND ALLOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI-SAT; THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
SURFACE LOW REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT FL FLATTENS
AND SLIDES EAST SOME. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND REINFORCES THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH... MAINTAINING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS
CONTINUE...THANKS TO THE RIDGING ALOFT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
SUN-MON; THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT WITH THE SOUTHERN PART HANGING
BACK IN MEXICO WHILE THE NORTHERN END TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES AND DEEPENS OFF THE COAST...PUSHING THE FL AND EAST GULF
UPPER RIDGING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE BOUNDARY
WEAKENING AS IT SAGS DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN THEN SOUTHERN FL. THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF LATITUDE 30 AS IT RIDGES BACK
TO FL. THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH DOES
RELAX SOME...WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE MAINLY SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR NORMAL BY MON AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
LIMITED IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. AREA OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG PROBLEMS LOOK TO
EXIST JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH KLAL AND KPGD SEEING HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VIS. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP FAIRLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. DISPERSION INDICES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HOWEVER BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE
MOST LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 83 68 83 / 30 20 30 50
FMY 67 85 69 87 / 10 30 30 50
GIF 65 86 68 86 / 10 30 30 50
SRQ 64 83 66 83 / 30 20 30 50
BKV 60 85 63 86 / 10 20 30 50
SPG 67 82 69 82 / 30 20 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
MARINE...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
940 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE THAT STICKS OUT IS THE
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST COMPRISED OF
SEVERAL LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAVE FORCED AMPLIFYING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RESULT OF THIS RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE 09/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE A WELL-DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AROUND 700MB. THE STRONGEST RIDGING
FEATURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 700-500MB...HOWEVER EVEN ABOVE THIS
LEVEL WHERE WV IMAGERY SHOWED MORE ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY...WE NOW SEE
A MORE RIDGED PATTERN AS HIGH AS 400MB. THE 700MB LEVEL AROUND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE THE DIVIDER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO BETWEEN DRY AND SUPPRESSED MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND THE MUCH
MORE MOIST AND LOWER LEVELS. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE
MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS KEEPING THE
COLDEST AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...THIS COLD AIR IS OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO OUR FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN SURFACE HIGH CENTER HAS PUSHED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PLACING OUR FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A GENERAL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
WEAK BOUNDARY IS STILL LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. NOT SURE
YOU CAN STILL CALL THIS A FRONT...BUT THE TROUGH ITSELF IS SHOWN BY
ALL NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO PIVOT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERING OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY
SHOWERS ON REGIONAL RADAR...AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
LEAST BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING CAN AID THE SURFACE FOCUS OF THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY TO STOP FORCING THE LIMITED CONVECTION. WE SAY
LIMITED CONVECTION AS THE POTENTIAL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CAPPED AT
AROUND 10,000 FEET BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
THIS WOULD NEED A STRONG UPDRAFT TO OVERCOME...AND DO NOT THINK WE
HAVE THE SETUP FOR THAT TYPE OF LIFT TODAY. THEREFORE...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THUNDER...AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.
INITIAL BAND OF WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES SEEN IN THE
NAM/GFS LINES UP WELL WITH THE BAND OF 5-6KFT AGL STRATOCU DECK
PIVOTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHWARD...WITH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE HAVE SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIP PATTERN...BUT ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME PAGE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE LATE DAY SHOWERS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR IS THE
MOST SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z. WHILE NOT THIS
SUPPRESSED...MANY OF THE OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
NEXT RUN OR 2 OF THE HRRR...WILL LIKELY BACK OFF ON THE TIMING FOR
BEST SHOWERS CHANCES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS
ALONG THE SUNCOAST WHERE SURFACE FOCUS FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SEABREEZE...OR AT LEAST COASTAL
CONVERGENCE AS THE NEARSHORE WINDS GO THROUGH THEIR NORMAL DIURNAL
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK WARM WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S COMMON OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. COMMON TO THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY FEEBLE SEABREEZE IS
LIKELY TO DROP TEMPS BACK AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE OF THE SHOWERS SHIFTING OFF
THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING
HOURS...AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY DRY.
BASED ON ALL THE GUIDANCE THIS FORECASTER CAN SEE...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE YOU GET AS FAR NORTH AS AROUND
BROOKSVILLE. WITH THE SUPPRESSIVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG AND
SOME DENSE FOG LOOKS HIGHER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY ARE QUITE
HIGH NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR VIS PROBLEMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH...AS THERE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH DIFFERENCE SYNOPTICALLY TO CAUSE THE DROP
OFF IS POTENTIAL SHOWN BY THE SREF. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...
A WARM SPRING-LIKE DAY LOOKS ON TAP AS THE UPPER RIDGING AND GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING BOOSTS TEMPS WILL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GRADIENT SETUP AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING
DO LOOK TO PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDING TO BURN OFF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPOTS...BUT THEREAFTER
LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THAN IS SHOWN IN TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS FOR
THIS TYPE OF MORE PURE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...BUT CAN NOT RULE IT
OUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL KEEP POPS ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE/THERMO
PROFILES...AND TIME OF YEAR. MORE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE WILL ENCOMPASS THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE AFTERNOON
RUNS...AND WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAY SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD AT MVFR BKN CU AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS AS THE CUMULUS
FIELD BEGINS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE VFR LEVELS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCT AROUND THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS.
AREA OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG PROBLEMS LOOK TO EXIST JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH KLAL
AND KPGD SEEING HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER
VIS. AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY MORNING...THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THEREAFTER AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 68 / 30 30 20 30
FMY 84 67 84 68 / 50 10 30 10
GIF 83 65 86 67 / 40 10 20 20
SRQ 81 65 82 66 / 40 40 30 20
BKV 83 60 83 62 / 20 10 20 30
SPG 81 68 80 69 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
202 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
.UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE PREVIOUS LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA THIS MORNING AS RAP MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STAY GREATER SW
OF REGION FOR NOW. TRENDS LOOK TO MATCH WELL WITH NAM ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGIONS AND LOCAL WRF/NMM HI-RES RUNS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO
MIDDAY THEN FILLING BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. QPF SHOULD STAY PRETTY LIGHT FOR NEAR
TERM. WARM AND CLOUDY CONTINUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AS OUR MOSTLY WET WEEK AHEAD BEGINS. MUCH OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR ISNT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT SOME OF IT IS AS -RA OR
-DZ. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. HI
RES MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS...HRRR STARTS DEVELOPING PRECIP
ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA WHILE THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL BEFORE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE LATER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH
DO NOT ENTIRELY DROP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY EVEN WITH A SHORT LULL. BY TONIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE
TO THE SW...WITH VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE CWA AND THUS WE SEE OUR
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
ALTHOUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA AND
LOOKING AT HI RES MODELS IT SEEMS PRECIP COULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 250 J/KG TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DID INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND LESS THAN A TENTH ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...GUIDANCE STILL WANTS
TO WARM TEMPS UP...HOWEVER WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH ON THE WARM SIDE AND THUS LEANED
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR TUESDAY WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE SO WENT ABOUT TWO DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BUT WITH
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...HIGH TEMPS WARM A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. FORECAST MAY STILL EVEN BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE THOUGH.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
WET WEEK IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ORIENTATION OF THE BEST
MOISTURE FLOW PUTS NORTHWEST GA IN THE HIGHEST QPF ZONE...WITH
THREE TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER A STRONG WEDGE SHOULD DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEK WITH
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SHOULD INFLUENCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALSO. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING FOR
SATURDAY BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH ON SUNDAY. SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH 4-7 KFT CIGS...THEN CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR BY NEAR 09Z OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCE FOR -RA INCREASING
INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SITES /COULD
SEE MVFR VSBY REDUCTION AT TIMES/...THEN LOOKING TO HAVE ANOTHER
LULL IN COVERAGE AFTER ABOUT 09-11Z. CHANCES FOR NOW REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED TSRA...AND ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP MAY BE ADDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. WINDS MAINLY EAST 5-7 KTS BECOMING SE INTO TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 51 71 58 / 30 30 30 40
ATLANTA 66 54 71 60 / 50 50 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 49 63 56 / 50 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 63 50 70 59 / 60 70 50 60
COLUMBUS 72 57 77 61 / 40 40 30 40
GAINESVILLE 64 51 67 57 / 50 50 40 50
MACON 73 54 78 59 / 20 30 30 30
ROME 61 49 71 58 / 60 100 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 53 73 58 / 40 50 30 40
VIDALIA 76 57 81 62 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1043 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE PREVIOUS LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA THIS MORNING AS RAP MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STAY GREATER SW
OF REGION FOR NOW. TRENDS LOOK TO MATCH WELL WITH NAM ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGIONS AND LOCAL WRF/NMM HI-RES RUNS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO
MIDDAY THEN FILLING BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. QPF SHOULD STAY PRETTY LIGHT FOR NEAR
TERM. WARM AND CLOUDY CONTINUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AS OUR MOSTLY WET WEEK AHEAD BEGINS. MUCH OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR ISNT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT SOME OF IT IS AS -RA OR
-DZ. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. HI
RES MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS...HRRR STARTS DEVELOPING PRECIP
ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA WHILE THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL BEFORE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE LATER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH
DO NOT ENTIRELY DROP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY EVEN WITH A SHORT LULL. BY TONIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE
TO THE SW...WITH VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE CWA AND THUS WE SEE OUR
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
ALTHOUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA AND
LOOKING AT HI RES MODELS IT SEEMS PRECIP COULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 250 J/KG TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DID INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND LESS THAN A TENTH ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...GUIDANCE STILL WANTS
TO WARM TEMPS UP...HOWEVER WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH ON THE WARM SIDE AND THUS LEANED
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR TUESDAY WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE SO WENT ABOUT TWO DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BUT WITH
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...HIGH TEMPS WARM A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. FORECAST MAY STILL EVEN BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE THOUGH.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
WET WEEK IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ORIENTATION OF THE BEST
MOISTURE FLOW PUTS NORTHWEST GA IN THE HIGHEST QPF ZONE...WITH
THREE TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER A STRONG WEDGE SHOULD DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEK WITH
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SHOULD INFLUENCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALSO. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING FOR
SATURDAY BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH ON SUNDAY. SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...BUT MUCH OF
WHATS ACROSS THE ATL AREA SITES IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. IT
IS POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE ATL AREA SITES
COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WOULD BE VERY SHORT
LIVED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NE SIDE AND WILL GENERALLY BE EAST
TODAY AND WORK THEIR BY TO THE SE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 51 71 58 / 20 50 50 40
ATLANTA 66 54 71 60 / 30 60 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 49 63 56 / 40 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 63 50 70 59 / 50 70 60 60
COLUMBUS 72 57 77 61 / 30 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 64 51 67 57 / 30 60 60 50
MACON 73 54 78 59 / 20 30 40 30
ROME 61 49 71 58 / 60 100 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 53 73 58 / 30 50 40 40
VIDALIA 76 57 81 62 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1055 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
Areas of dense fog have formed this evening from around
Taylorville to Champaign and back northwestward toward La Salle. A
combination of low level moisture left behind from rainfall from
earlier today and from recent snow melt, along with light winds,
and clearing skies have brought several ingredients for fog
development. To the west of this area, little or no rain fell
earlier today, and light southwest winds have developed in
advance of a weak frontal boundary approaching from the north. As
a result, conditions are not as favorable and have seen little fog
development so far. Have issued a dense fog advisory for
approximately the southeast half of the central IL forecast area
for tonight, but will hold off elsewhere at this time. Dry north
to northeast winds once the front crosses into central IL along
with daytime heating mid- morning should dissipate fog early
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
19z/2pm water vapor imagery continues to show a channel of deep
moisture flowing northward from the western Gulf of Mexico into the
Ohio River Valley. This moisture has been interacting with low
pressure over western Kentucky to produce widespread rain from the
Deep South northward into Illinois and Indiana. An upper-level
short-wave currently passing through central Illinois has given the
rain band a solid push eastward, with latest radar mosaic showing
most of the precip now along/east of the Wabash River. This trend
will continue over the next couple of hours, resulting in dry
conditions across the entire KILX CWA by 00z. Think NAM may be a
bit too fast with its eastward progression of clearing across the
area tonight, as satellite imagery still shows a northward push to
the clouds from Louisiana and Arkansas. As a result, will slow the
projected clearing, resulting in cloudy skies along/south of I-70
until dawn Wednesday. With clearing skies, light winds, and plenty
of low-level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, fog will
develop tonight. Locally dense fog will be possible, especially
across locations that picked up rainfall and clear the earliest.
Based on cloud trends, think the area most primed for potentially
dense fog will be between the Illinois River and I-70. Will mention
patchy dense fog in the forecast, but will hold off on a Dense Fog
Advisory until trends become more evident this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
Trof over the central US will weaken tomorrow, allowing brief
ridging to move through the area. This will allow a brief period of
dry weather for tomorrow and tomorrow night. This ridging will slide
east beginning tomorrow and continue to move east through Thursday.
This will enable a weather system developing in the southern parts
of the Miss valley to move north into the central Miss valley and
bring pcpn to the the area. This pcpn should being in southeastern
IL Thursday evening and then spread northward through the night and
then over the whole area on Friday. The models differ on the timing
of the pcpn moving into the area, with the NAM being the quickest.
Have followed the other slower models, thinking the NAM-WRF is too
fast. The slower models also linger the pcpn longer, not ending it
until late Friday night. The ECMWF is the quickest to do this,
followed by the Canadian and then lastly, the GFS. Beyond this
system, high pressure will build into the area for the weekend and
the beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected through this
period. Even a dry front will move through the area Monday night.
Temps should remain warm through the period and be above normal for
early March, into early next week. Behind the dry front Monday
night, temps will cool.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
A mix of IFR/LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys remains south of a KDEC-KCMI
line and this area expected to keep shifting southward through the
night. Brief MVFR ceilings remaining at KCMI but this should clear
out in next few hours. Next concern is fog development overnight.
With rainfall having occurred earlier today at most TAF sites, clear
skies, light winds, and plenty of moisture left behind by the
light rain today, several ingredients are in place for fog
development overnight. HRRR continues to show widespread fog
developing this evening, spreading south/west from north/east IL,
and persisting through the night. Visibilities 3 miles expected by
02Z-03Z, possibly decreasing overnight. Will hit fog hardest at
sites that reported rain today by including a TEMPO group for 1
mile vsbys between 08z and 12z at all terminals except KPIA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ045-046-
055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ044-052>054-
061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
716 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...
341 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE THE FOG/STRATUS TRENDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SECONDARY CONCERNS ARE MILD
TEMPERATURES...LAKE COOLING...AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEST-EAST
ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS HAS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN TO
THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NORTHERN SECTIONS HAD
SEEN DENSE FOG DEVELOP SINCE LAST EVENING IN WEAK WIND FIELD
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
ACROSS COLD GROUND AND LINGERING SNOWPACK. DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE BEEN ERODING FROM THE EDGES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR RETAINING LOW
VISIBILITIES IN FOG. CONCERN IS THAT AREA OF FOG WILL FILL BACK IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN SATURATED CONDITIONS LOWEST SEVERAL
HUNDRED FEET. IN ADDITION...WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SOME WEAK MOIST ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA UNTIL
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUCH AS THE NARRE...SREF AND HOP-WRF ALL
DEPICT HIGH PROBABILITY OF DETERIORATING VISIBILITY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH ALSO LOOKS TO BE AT SOME RISK FOR DENSE FOG...WITH
HIGHER CLOUDS FROM UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM SOME EARLIER RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED
AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL ISSUE
SPS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. FEEL PART OF AREA WILL LIKELY
END UP IN NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR BEST LOCATION/TIMING DETAILS.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS JAMES BAY ONTARIO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WAS TRAILING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. AREA WILL ONLY BE GRAZED BY COOLER
AIR...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING
LAKE COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING AREAS WITHIN SEVERAL
MILES OF THE LAKE IN THE 40S OR EVEN SOME UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL WEST/SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW-MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST. OF
COURSE THE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS...AND HOW QUICKLY IT ERODES WITH
NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW EFFECTIVE WE WILL BE
AT ACHIEVING THESE MILD TEMPS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
CLEARING LOOKS TO BE A DECENT BET. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE STRONGEST LAKE COOLING TO THE
IMMEDIATE ILLINOIS SHORE AND NORTH SHORE SUBURBS.
UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS TO FAVOR A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS REALLY BEGINS TO PULL GULF MOSITURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND WELL TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. BY
THE TIME DEEPER MOISTURE REACHES OUR AREA...LOW LEVEL WINDS AT
925-850 MB ARE ALREADY VEERING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SHUNT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST.
VARIOUS GUIDANCE DOES BRING RAIN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WRF-NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS BRING SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...BUT
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH LOOK OF THE ECMWF/SREF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH HIGHEST (LIKELY) POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES UP TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE (AFTER 3 AM) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. NICE TO HAVE A SYSTEM WHERE ALL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING!
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
341 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH CANADA. THUS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FAIRLY
STOUT SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PUSH OF
WARMER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND CANADA. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MAY PRODUCE THE FIRST 60+ TEMPERATURE FOR THE CWA BY
MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS APPEARS SHORT LIVED...AS STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW PLOWS SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THIS SCENARIO AT THIS DISTANCE.
RATZER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH
PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE
WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER
ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LIFR CIGS AND LIFR VIS BECOMING VLIFR VIS IN FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 7-9KT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. DENSE FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO
EXPAND THIS HOUR AND WITH THE SUN SETTING...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE AN
INCREASE IN THIS EXPANSION. HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING 1/4SM VIS IN
FOG FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RFD AND DPA ALREADY OBSERVING THIS LOW
VIS/CEILINGS. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH START TIME FOR
ORD/MDW...VERY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A BETTER
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS FOG. SO AM GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH
CURRENT START TIMES IN 00Z TAFS. APPROACHING FRONT WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL LOSE SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HELP TO
ALLEVIATE ANY OF THE FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS. FOG/VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LOWER
CEILINGS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH MID DAY. WINDS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS
INITIALLY CLOSE TO THE 10 KT RANGE...BUT LIKELY DIMINISHING MORE
CLOSER TO 7KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH OBSERVING LIFR CIGS AND LIFR/VLIFR
VIS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EXACT START TIME AND DURATION.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER LAKE WATER HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE LAKE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
MAY HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE FOG AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK FLOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022
UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
653 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
19z/2pm water vapor imagery continues to show a channel of deep
moisture flowing northward from the western Gulf of Mexico into the
Ohio River Valley. This moisture has been interacting with low
pressure over western Kentucky to produce widespread rain from the
Deep South northward into Illinois and Indiana. An upper-level
short-wave currently passing through central Illinois has given the
rain band a solid push eastward, with latest radar mosaic showing
most of the precip now along/east of the Wabash River. This trend
will continue over the next couple of hours, resulting in dry
conditions across the entire KILX CWA by 00z. Think NAM may be a
bit too fast with its eastward progression of clearing across the
area tonight, as satellite imagery still shows a northward push to
the clouds from Louisiana and Arkansas. As a result, will slow the
projected clearing, resulting in cloudy skies along/south of I-70
until dawn Wednesday. With clearing skies, light winds, and plenty
of low-level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, fog will
develop tonight. Locally dense fog will be possible, especially
across locations that picked up rainfall and clear the earliest.
Based on cloud trends, think the area most primed for potentially
dense fog will be between the Illinois River and I-70. Will mention
patchy dense fog in the forecast, but will hold off on a Dense Fog
Advisory until trends become more evident this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
Trof over the central US will weaken tomorrow, allowing brief
ridging to move through the area. This will allow a brief period of
dry weather for tomorrow and tomorrow night. This ridging will slide
east beginning tomorrow and continue to move east through Thursday.
This will enable a weather system developing in the southern parts
of the Miss valley to move north into the central Miss valley and
bring pcpn to the the area. This pcpn should being in southeastern
IL Thursday evening and then spread northward through the night and
then over the whole area on Friday. The models differ on the timing
of the pcpn moving into the area, with the NAM being the quickest.
Have followed the other slower models, thinking the NAM-WRF is too
fast. The slower models also linger the pcpn longer, not ending it
until late Friday night. The ECMWF is the quickest to do this,
followed by the Canadian and then lastly, the GFS. Beyond this
system, high pressure will build into the area for the weekend and
the beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected through this
period. Even a dry front will move through the area Monday night.
Temps should remain warm through the period and be above normal for
early March, into early next week. Behind the dry front Monday
night, temps will cool.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
A mix of IFR/LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys remains south of a KDEC-KCMI
line and this area expected to keep shifting southward through the
night. Brief MVFR ceilings remaining at KCMI but this should clear
out in next few hours. Next concern is fog development overnight.
With rainfall having occurred earlier today at most TAF sites, clear
skies, light winds, and plenty of moisture left behind by the
light rain today, several ingredients are in place for fog
development overnight. HRRR continues to show widespread fog
developing this evening, spreading south/west from north/east IL,
and persisting through the night. Visibilities 3 miles expected by
02Z-03Z, possibly decreasing overnight. Will hit fog hardest at
sites that reported rain today by including a TEMPO group for 1
mile vsbys between 08z and 12z at all terminals except KPIA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
354 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
215 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS SOUTH OF I-80
AND IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY
DAY. UPPED HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE WE WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM RATHER EFFICIENTLY.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPOTS HITTING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. THERE IS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE MAY FORM TODAY...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT ONE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IF A LAKE
BREEZE WERE TO FORM...EXPECTING IT TO HUG THE SHORE AND NOT TRAVEL
VERY FAR INLAND.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-88 AS I THINK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH WE COOL TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88.
AREAS NORTH OF I-88 WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR...SO
HAVE THOSE SITES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING TO AROUND 30.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO THE TYPICAL HUGE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY
WINDS SETTING UP OFF THE LAKE.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY SOARING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN CHICAGO AND FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING SNOW IS LEAST LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENSURE THAT THE TASTE OF
SPRING WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED IN LAKE ADJACENT AREAS WITH ONSHORE
WINDS LIKELY TO KNOCK 15-20F OR MORE OFF DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. WELL INLAND IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN THREATENING TO MAKE A RUN AT LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY WITH
HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 30S
WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
THE MELTING SNOW COULD ADD ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
POSE A THREAT OF SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING IN THE LIGHT WIND REGIME. AS SHALLOW COLD MARINE LAYER
SPILLS INLAND WEDNESDAY SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARINE FOG ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE AMBIENT AIR MASS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE OVER TAKING IS NOT TERRIBLY MOIST.
OTHER CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
SPREADING INTO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
WEEK AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF MID-UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND POTENTIALLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THEN HIGHS WOULD BE COLDER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISING FOR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT HIGH SO
STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLENDED CONSENSUS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS FOR
NOW.
OVER THE WEEKEND GFS/ECMWF BOTH PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST NOAM WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT JUST
BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR OUR WARMEST DAY OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY GETTING
WELL INTO THE 60S IF CURRENT ECMWF/GFS PAN OUT.
IZZI
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* NONE.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 4 KT THROUGH MID MORNING. OUTLYING AREAS LIKE
DPA AND RFD MAY SEE FOG REDUCE VSBY TO ARND 4SM...BUT NOT
EXPECTING FOG AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME SSW...AND MAYBE
DUE SOUTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. A LAKE
BREEZE MAY FORM AS THE LAND HEATS TODAY...BUT THINKING IT WILL
ONLY HUG THE SHORE IF ONE DOES INDEED FORM. WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN AT LESS THAN 10 KT. CIRRUS ALSO
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. EAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
234 AM CDT
GENERALLY FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FAST MOVING LOW TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO FRESHEN UP TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STRONG WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER LAND AND WATER TEMPS HOLD JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHERLY THOUGH WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED SPEEDS. COULD BE SOME MARINE FOG DEVELOPING TUES NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE COLD
MARINE LAYER WILL ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO
DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH FOG IN GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
322 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
A ridge of high pressure extends from the mid-Atlantic states into
the central Plains early this morning, cutting across central and
southeast Illinois. The presence of this ridge, and associated weak
pressure gradient, will keep winds light/variable for most of today.
The high pressure will also be associated with quiet weather,
although cloud cover will be slowly increasing from the south as the
disturbance expected to impact southeast Illinois tonight draws
closer. Visible satellite loops from late yesterday afternoon
suggest much of the snow cover has been lost across the forecast
area over the past two days. However, the lingering snow cover is
still likely to impact high temperatures for at least one more day.
Expect most of the snow free portions of the forecast area to break
50 degrees today. The remaining snow will have the greatest impact
on temperatures along the I-72 corridor east of Springfield (and
east from Champaign to the Indiana border), as well as south of the
I-70 corridor. These areas with lingering snow stand the best chance
of remaining in the mid-upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
Deep trof digging in over the SW CONUS and over the Baja peninsula
will be the driving factor in the weather for the next week. Same
upper level trof is the initiation of a couple of waves that start
surface systems over the Gulf Coast that move into the Ohio River
Valley and skirt the Midwest with some precip chances. First one
forming over southern Texas now and spreading moisture and cloud
cover across the southern tier of the country. Rain chances
increasing after midnight and into tomorrow, mainly south of
Interstate 72 corridor. Same deep trof breaking the flow over the
CONUS into two streams as warmer air dominating the country through
the work week. Temps well above normal through the week...with much
of the snowpack expected to melt today...and more sunshine
tomorrow...temps into the upper 50s/near 60 in the west. So far,
temps on Wednesday climbing to around 60/lower 60s...and guidance
struggling to warm the temps with 850mb at 6C-7.5C.
Next system still having major disconnect with timing of onset of
precip. Starting again as a wave out of the deep western trof,
skirting the coast and into the Ohio River Valley...ECMWF much
quicker than the GFS. But both of the models have another wave
digging into the nrn stream colliding with the system. The ECMWF
uses the northern wave to help bump the system out rather
progressively. GFS lagging considerably, keeping the nrn waves
influence more minimal in the divided flow. Precip chances spread
into the first half of the weekend a matter of probability spread at
this point in the blended guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Only a few observation sites across central IL are showing any
signs of vis reduction late this evening, with no MVFR vis
observations to this point. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP
are showing less potential for fog to affect any terminal sites
later tonight. They have delayed the onset of any fog in the south
and north, and have diminished its coverage from previous
forecasts earlier this evening. The NAM continues to blanket
nearly the entire area with dense fog, but that looks considerably
overdone. Will go with a tempo for high MVFR vis for DEC and SPI
later tonight, and remove any fog from CMI.
Winds will be light and variable under high pressure the rest of
the night. A southeast wind will develop Monday morning, but speeds
should remain at or below 10kt through Monday evening.
Rain will begin to approach our southern forecast area late Monday
night, but no precip is expected during this TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1234 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
154 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID-
LVL CLOUDS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS HAS CREATED A SLIGHT THERMAL
DIFFERENTIAL OF COOLER TEMPS UNDERNEATH...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. MEANWHILE EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW POCKETS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING IN THE MID 20S..WHICH WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE PRECIP
AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN ANY OF
THE PRECIP STILL FALLING WILL BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. GUIDANCE
ALL INDICATES THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTING EAST LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ERODING MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
WITH MID-LVL FLOW SEMI-ZONAL AND SFC RIDGING SLIDING EAST...TEMPS
MON SHUD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 40S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. 950MB GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...HOWEVER LATER IN
THE WEEK THIS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT.
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUE...WITH A SFC WAVE BEING REFLECTED
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHUD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
CWFA WITH AN EXPECTED DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING A WELCOME THERMAL RIDGE OF 5 TO 7
DEG C AT 850MB TUE. THIS SHUD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY WARM INTO
THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 50S. SFC RIDGING APPEARS TO BE
STRETCHED...WITH A SECOND FOCUS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WOULD INDICATE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWEST TUE NGT. LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
154 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. SFC RIDGING WILL BE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN IL
WED MIDDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD MARINE AIR TO BLEED INLAND FROM A LAKE
BREEZE...AND LOCK AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE UPR 30S FOR
HIGHS WED. FURTHER INLAND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS HOLDING
ARND 5 TO 7 DEG C WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE A FEW UPR 50S TO 60
DEGREE READINGS WED AFTN.
THUR THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN MEMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SPREAD STEADILY RAMPS UP. THUR/FRI TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE LONGER TERM...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO BEEN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENN
VALLEY THUR AFTN. PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO BE EXPANSIVE...AND COULD
REACH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA THUR EVE. TEMPS SHUD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO LIMIT P-TYPE AS LGT RAIN...HOWEVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
COULD SEE A LGT RA/SN MIX THUR NGT. PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS OVERHEAD
FRI AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST FRI NGT/EARLY SAT. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS IN
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.
BEACHLER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 4 KT THROUGH MID MORNING. OUTLYING AREAS LIKE
DPA AND RFD MAY SEE FOG REDUCE VSBY TO ARND 4SM...BUT NOT
EXPECTING FOG AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME SSW...AND MAYBE
DUE SOUTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. A LAKE
BREEZE MAY FORM AS THE LAND HEATS TODAY...BUT THINKING IT WILL
ONLY HUG THE SHORE IF ONE DOES INDEED FORM. WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN AT LESS THAN 10 KT. CIRRUS ALSO
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. EAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
135 PM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES EAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.9 INCHES
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE LAKES AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A weak shortwave is still generating some mid-level cloud cover
and radar returns east of Champaign, but we expect that no precip
is reaching the ground. Mid and high clouds will continue to
stream into our southern counties from the SW, as a stationary
front lingers across southern IL. Weak high pressure between those
two features will provide relatively clear skies the rest of the
night in central IL. Light winds under the high pressure could
help radiational cooling and lingering moisture result in light
fog formation. DEC is the only observation showing any vis
restriction, with 7SM. HRRR and RAP vis outlooks both point toward
some fog in our south and north counties after midnight.
Confidence is low on dense fog forming, and even MVFR fog is a
marginal possibility. Will leave patchy fog in the grids after
midnight for our southern areas with more snow coverage on the
ground. Low temp forecast looks on track, with upper 20s north and
low 30s south. Updates were mainly to clouds and hourly temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the
remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures
from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid
40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite
imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead,
but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72
corridor.
The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog,
with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal
boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and
this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high
pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of
the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight,
as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing
widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model
have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern
flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson),
with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR
solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off
the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200
feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy
fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after
midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more
widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
High pressure area will slowly move across the region through
tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north
into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern
part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern
extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface
ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models
seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The
GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so
will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of
the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue
through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and
continuing through Wed night.
By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading
pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently,
all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period.
GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this
pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and
blend.
Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to
around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the
week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Only a few observation sites across central IL are showing any
signs of vis reduction late this evening, with no MVFR vis
observations to this point. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP
are showing less potential for fog to affect any terminal sites
later tonight. They have delayed the onset of any fog in the south
and north, and have diminished its coverage from previous
forecasts earlier this evening. The NAM continues to blanket
nearly the entire area with dense fog, but that looks considerably
overdone. Will go with a tempo for high MVFR vis for DEC and SPI
later tonight, and remove any fog from CMI.
Winds will be light and variable under high pressure the rest of
the night. A southeast wind will develop Monday morning, but speeds
should remain at or below 10kt through Monday evening.
Rain will begin to approach our southern forecast area late Monday
night, but no precip is expected during this TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW H5/H7 RIDGE FLUCTUATING FROM THE WEST COAST ON INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ROCKIES. A CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
TEXAS...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST ON INTO
THE ROCKIES AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH...RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE OUT OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR
POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLANS. GIVEN THIS...THE
EASTERN COLORADO AREA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF RAINSHOWERS AT BEST. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED...A RANGE
OF 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL OCCUR AS 925MB TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +15C UP TO +23C. THE HIGHER POINTS IN THIS RANGE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WORKS OVER REGION...ALTOHUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BRING ABOUT
+20C AT 925MB BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH WARMEST
AREAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1222 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN H3 JET STREAMS REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN COMPLICATION TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEATHER WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY CAN MOVE INTO OUR
CWA ALONG WITH POSITION OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ECMWF
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY ON POSITION...THOUGH CONTINUE TO
VARY ON FINER DETAILS. LATEST ECMWF IS STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS A
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL FRIDAY (POSSIBLY
FRIDAY EVENING) FROM ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OPERATIONAL
GFS. I COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING STILL WITH DECREASING
LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL FORCING SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH WARMEST DAY ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70F. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES FOR NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WINDS JUST DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THERE AT
THIS POINT TO BE A CONCERN. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND...SO AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGHS IN THE 60S (FRIDAY/SATURDAY)...WE COULD SEE HIGHS BACK AROUND
70 ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
626 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS MAINE. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
626 PM...COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT THE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE IS A LOT LESS AND CONFINED TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS IN PART
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFF INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP DO TRY TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT MORE CLOUD THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE
NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE EARLY THIS EVE AND INTO QUEBEC BY TUE PM. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS EARLY THIS EVENING THAT THERE COULD BE A
FEW PATCHES OF FOG THAT FORM LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPS TONIGHT
LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...SATELLITE...AND NEAR
TERM MODEL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN NEW BRUNSWICK IS BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THAT IS CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
PRODUCING INSTABILITY TO AROUND H700. THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE
SNOW SHOWERS IS CAUSING VISIBILITY TO DROP AS LOW AS A QUARTER
MILE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AND
CLOUD COVER FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS RATHER TRICKY. EXPECT TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
OF THE COLDER VALLEYS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY MIGHT GET AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOW 40S TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST
REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY GET SOME
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF.... BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO
TRENDS TO BRING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS WITH SOME
MODIFICATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TEMPO IFR OR VLIFR IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS FOR THE
AREA ON LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FVE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR
VIS IN SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ..IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE JUST SHY OF SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN LATER TON THEY SHOULD
DIMINISH. THERE IS STILL A SHORT WINDOW THIS EVE WHERE THEY COULD
PICK UP TO LOW END SCA LEVELS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR NOW...
BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO DROP IT LATER THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: A LIMITED
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GO OFF-SHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE
NATURE OF PRECIP HAS TURNED SHOWERY WITH A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ONE QUARTER MILE VIS POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR THE COLD FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
SHOWED LOW PRES W/THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF MAINE W/SOME SNOW MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN
OF THE GFS AS WELL. A DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
W/GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. 00Z UA & MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH
700MBS. SSE FLOW AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF
15-20:1. QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO.
THIS COUPLED W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
927 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST. THE LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IN NORTHERN ZONES...BUT AS
SHOWERS IMPLIES...THERE WILL NOT BE UNIFORMITY IN COVERAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
SHOWED LOW PRES W/THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF MAINE W/SOME SNOW MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN
OF THE GFS AS WELL. A DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
W/GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. 00Z UA & MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH
700MBS. SSE FLOW AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF
15-20:1. QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO.
THIS COUPLED W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
729 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
725 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT READINGS
BEGINNING TO WARM. POPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO FIT THE RADAR
TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
SHOWED LOW PRES W/THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF MAINE W/SOME SNOW MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN
OF THE GFS AS WELL. A DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
W/GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. 00Z UA & MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH
700MBS. SSE FLOW AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF
15-20:1. QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO.
THIS COUPLED W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
506 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A WARM WARM FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SNOW WAS
BREAKING OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PER THE RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY IR SATELLITE IMAGERY(COLDER
CLOUD TOPS). THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT VORTICITY MAX
ASSOCIATED W/THIS SYSTEM AIDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED
THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BEFORE DAYBREAK W/SOME SNOW
MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS AS WELL. A
DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG W/GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 00Z UA
& MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700MBS. SSE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR SOME OVERRUNNING
LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF 15-20:1. QPF WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO. THIS COUPLED W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE FORCING AND DYNAMICS
WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
106 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL REGION OF THE STATE. AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTENT FROM BAXTER STATE PARK EASTWARD INTO THE
HOULTON-PATTEN REGION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SOME ENHANCED ECHOES
OVER MT. KATAHDIN W/LIFT AND LLVL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SNOW.
DECIDED TO ADD SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN REGION AS WELL.
THE MESOSCALE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL WERE HANDLING THIS QUITE WELL
PER THE LAST 3 HRS. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO FIT THE LATEST
OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FORCING WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WE COULD SEE
A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
BRIEF RIDGING CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE NORTH AND 15 TO
20 ABOVE CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SNOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ST
JOHN VALLEY MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING TUESDAY. AM
FAVORING THE GFS ON THE QPF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND GRADUAL PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING JUST OVER 40F. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT BE AS FORTUNATE WITH
HIGHS CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS.
HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 30S. THE COLD
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SHARPLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THIS WILL GIVE BANGOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS ABOVE 40F
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JAN 18. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF H925-H850
MOISTURE TO QUICKLY CREATE WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN ZONES.
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE FAIRLY ROBUST WITH VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT EXCEEDING THE H700 LEVEL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AND WIND CHILLS
LIKELY BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TOWARDS THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUBZERO
READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH. CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JOINS FORCES WITH A MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THESE TWO STREAMS WILL PHASE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING LATER FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERATE LIKELY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERINIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
START VFR AND THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR...AND EVEN BRIEF IFR AT
TIMES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR NORTH OF HUL TUESDAY WITH MVFR SOUTH OF
HUL DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PROVIDE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF HUL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS
LATER MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER SCA IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
715 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO...JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER
JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO -4C TO -6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 30 ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WED...ANY LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXEPCT DRIER AND COOLDER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NW WINDS
BOOSTED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S CNTRL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU-NEXT TUESDAY
AS W-NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
IN THE 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN ON BOTH OF THOSE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
THE CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING RAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGARDS OF PHASING
OF THE NRN SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
MAINTAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND AS SUCH MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST
FASTER. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST MORE PHASING AND AS SUCH
ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE GEM/UKMET. AS SUCH...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. REGARDLESS...THE BIG
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT RISE
TO ABOVE +10C SO SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL
YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. MODELS
FCST 925-850 MB RH AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
MOVE IN THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND WENT ONLY WITH SCT DECK AT 3000 FEET FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO ON TUE. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
LOW PRES OVER E CNTRL SASK. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME ISOLD READINGS
AROUND 50. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI TEMPS HAVE REMAINED
CLOSER TO 40.
TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE.
HOWEVER...SW GRADIENT FLOW AND MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS AOA
FREEZING IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND.
TUESDAY...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-
6C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO
925-900 MB...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER ALBEDO IN
THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING. HOWEVER...DOWNWIND
FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S FROM
THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE...ALLOWING ONLY QUICK GLANCING SHOTS OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO -
6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MORE
LIKELY HANG UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE
LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY ACROSS THE LAND AREAS. SHOULD JUST
END UP BEING A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL START OUT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO -9C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ICE HAS OPENED DRAMATICALLY. THIS COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN W-SW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO POSSIBLY RISE TO CLOSE TO +10C MONDAY
/ABOVE +10C IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES/ WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
MAINLY JUST MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE
FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
950 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE
CWA AND A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG IT...A VAST AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...BUT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO LESSEN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE
DISTURBANE MOVES OUT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY IN
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 50
OVER THE DELTA...TO THE LOWER 60S OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS THE CANCELLATION OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...OVERALL RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AGAIN THOUGH...A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS
INDEED SHOWN A DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY OVER THE PREVIOUS WATCH AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH A FEW MORE BOUTS OF RAINFALL TO GO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS.
OTHER THAN THE CHANGE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO THE HOURLY GRIDS DUE TO
ONGOING TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST ON
THIS UPDATE. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...DESPITE RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT SITES ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF BOUT OF IFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES STEMMING FROM DEGRADED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN GULF
COAST REGION WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MS. DRIER AIR ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOUGHER TO OVERCOME THAN PREVIOUSLY
SUGGESTED BY HRRR GUIDANCE IN THE PINE BELT REGION...AND THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST SE OF THE AREA
THIS AFTN. BUT CONTINUED STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA AND
LARGER RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING INLAND TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO...THE
EASTWARD SHIFT IN SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS RESULTING IN A QUICKER END
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER MEXICO...A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
DEEP LAYER AIR (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THERE TO BE A LULL IN PCPN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY THEN. POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
/EC/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COME THURSDAY MORNING A VERY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER MOST OF AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE GREATER RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. PWS WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST
OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DECREASING POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING OCCUR OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 65 60 72 / 87 70 79 86
MERIDIAN 60 68 60 73 / 100 71 65 85
VICKSBURG 55 65 59 72 / 71 59 85 90
HATTIESBURG 61 73 63 73 / 100 74 67 71
NATCHEZ 57 65 60 72 / 77 66 89 90
GREENVILLE 51 64 56 67 / 35 33 73 90
GREENWOOD 53 65 57 71 / 62 49 72 90
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY WINDS...AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NOTED ON RADAR THIS MORNING OFF COASTAL MS. HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO SE SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART JUST SHOWERS WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC./26/
&&
.AVIATION...WHILE RAIN REMAINS RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO RESPOND WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STILL VFR AT MID MORNING. MUCH LOWER CIGS EXIST TO THE S
AND W OF FORECAST AREA...AND STILL BELIEVE LOWER CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE PUSHED THIS BACK TO LATER IN THE
DAY WITH SERIES OF TAF AMDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN RATHER WIDESPREAD WITH COMBO OF BR AND SHRA
CAUSING MVFR/IFR VSBYS TONIGHT./8/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR FORECAST THINKING
REMAINS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WHILE THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WET PATTERN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ADDING UP AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS
(LOCATION...SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS) ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. MUCH
OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS AS WELL AS NOT BEING LOCKED INTO A
SPECIFIC AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME PERIOD WHERE
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS NOW AVAILABLE AND THEY TWO DIFFER IN PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AS WELL. ONE COMMON THEME IS ALL MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST EFFICIENT AND HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE LATER AND
MORE FOCUSED IN THE TUE-TUE NGT PERIODS. DUE TO THIS...WILL FOCUS
THE HWO/GRAPHICS ON THAT WINDOW OF TIME. AS FOR THE AREA...THE
MODIFICATION BY THE DAY SHIFT FITS WELL AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. THE
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.
WHAT IS STARTING TO COME INTO PLAY AND BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS TUE. THE REASONING FOR
THIS IS HOW MORE CONSENSUS IS SHOWING A CLOSED OFF SFC LOW TO OUR
W/NW FOR TUE. WITH A MORE DEVELOPED WAVE...WE WILL SEE WAA INCREASE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONTAL
CIRCULATION DEVELOP. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGHER SFC MOISTURE
TO MOVE NORTH EARLY ON TUE AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TIMING. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST HI-RES GUID SHOWS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY TUE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED IF THIS SLOWER TREND WORKS OUT WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MUCAPE OF 500-1100 J/KG. NOT MANY INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER...BUT FOR THE FIRST TIME...A FEW ARE. AT THIS POINT...I WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THREAT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD AND EVALUATE FURTHER.
TOUCHING ON TODAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING
OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A MORE PRONOUNCED WAA PATTERN IS DEVELOPING. MUCH
OF THIS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TODAY. AS THE WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN
ACTIVITY...BUT THEN HAVE WAA SHOWERS/ISO TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE N
FROM SE LA FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOW THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LOOK
TONIGHT IS A CHALLENGE. MY EXPECTATIONS ARE THERE WON`T BE A SOLID
RAIN SHIELD...BUT MORE OF A FEW DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIP AS THE WAA
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AND DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASES. /CME/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TROUGHING ALOFT DUG IN
DEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION`S MID-SECTION AND INTO MEXICO...WILL
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE A`PLENTY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS...COUPLED WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOLLOWING SYNC AND
TRAVERSING NORTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
WILL BE HEAVY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT EITHER. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID SURFACE LOWS WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL EXIST...CAUSING DEW POINTS TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND ADEQUATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY TO EXIST. IT`S
STILL SKETCHY WHETHER THERE`LL BE A RISK OF ANY SEVERE STORMS AT ANY
POINT...AS WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY LOOKS A TAD LOW AND LAPSE RATES
MEAGER. THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
RESULTING IN FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE GREATER CONCERN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUCH A DEEP AND RICHLY MOIST AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CWA...PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES PROGGED FROM
1.50-1.70 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
FINALLY...AFTER A WET MID AND LATE WORK WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CUT OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE
PHASING THE REMAINING ENERGY LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION/OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO EQUATE TO A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 57 74 58 / 99 99 100 92
MERIDIAN 60 57 75 61 / 99 100 100 91
VICKSBURG 58 57 71 55 / 100 99 100 70
HATTIESBURG 63 61 76 63 / 96 86 100 79
NATCHEZ 60 60 71 55 / 100 93 100 76
GREENVILLE 54 52 67 51 / 100 100 89 50
GREENWOOD 56 54 71 54 / 100 100 100 80
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
937 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 937 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Fog already forming over parts of southwest IL early this evening
and this coverage is expected to expand as we head into the
overnight hours with ripe antecedent conditions for fog in this
region.
A lot of this came about from thick low cloud that persisted thru
the day today in this area and has only recently cleared out in
the past few hours, leaving behind small dewpoint depressions from
the outset, still wet ground from recently melted snow cover, and
light winds forecast thanks to a surface ridge axis stretched over
the area. Crossover temps calculated from this afternoon are
easily attainable and we expect forecast min temps to be several
degrees below the crossover values in this region.
As a result, and in an attempt to stay a step ahead of it, went
with a Dense Fog Advisory for much of southwest IL, stopping just
short of STL city, and this follows the outline of the HRRR VSBY
forecast pretty closely.
Elsewhere, look for clear skies overnight with more patchy fog
coverage, although areas in southeast MO and parts of STL metro
may be candidates for the expansion of the Advisory overnight but
will wait for more evidence before doing so. Min temps from the
mid 30s to the lower 40s are expected.
A quick peak at tomorrow (Wednesday), shows plenty of sunshine
after the fog dissipates, but a weak frontal boundary will have
already dropped thru northern MO and central IL by mid-morning and
will push thru the remainder of the CWA by early afternoon.
Effects on temps will be minimal for most areas, and in fact, we
are looking at higher max temps than persistence for most. The
exception will be in northeast MO and west-central IL where
anticipated CAA will be stronger thanks to more persistent
stubborn fog and its associated colder temps in a NE wind regime.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Light rain and drizzle has shifted east of the forecast area late
this afternoon as weak surface low over western KY continues to move
northeastward. The sky will continue to clear from northwest to
southeast through the night with the moisture profile becoming more
shallow. The clearing sky, light surface winds, only a gradual and
relatively slight drop in surface dew points, and wet ground due to
recent rain along with snow melt in some areas will lead to the
development of fog later tonight. The lows tonight will still be
fairly mild and slightly above normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
A surface ridge will move through the region on Wednesday. After
the fog lifts tomorrow morning, little if any cloudiness will lead
to above normal highs in the 60s. Rain will spread back northward
into our forecast area Thursday afternoon and night as a southerly
low level jet brings low level warm air advection and low level
moisture back northward into our area, and a surface low will move
northward from the Gulf Coast. The NAM is still the quickest in
bringing rain northward into the area. For now followed closer to
the slower progression of the rain into our area for Thursday and
Thursday night of the GFS and ECMWF models. There are also some
model differences with the track of the upper level low moving into
our area from the Plains and the surface low track, but it appears
that rain should move through southeast MO and southwest IL by
Thursday evening, then into most of the rest of the forecast area by
late Thursday night. Rain will continue on Friday as the surface
low moves northeastward through AR and southeast MO. Light rain may
linger Friday night until the upper level trough moves east of the
area. Only slightly cooler air is expected for Saturday as an upper
level trough moves through the Great Lakes region and a surface
ridge builds into the area. Warmer temperatures are expected for
Sunday and Monday as the surface wind becomes southerly as the
surface ridge shifts east of our area, and as upper level heights
rise over the central US. The ECMWF brings a cold front southward
through our area Monday afternoon and evening, while the GFS is a
little slower bringing it through Monday night. Neither model
generates any precipitation associated with this front, but does
bring colder air into the region behind the front for Tuesday.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
The main issue for tonight is how much fog will develop. The only
TAF site which still has any stratus in KCPS and that should clear
within the next few hours leaving thinning high clouds. Present
indications are that fog will develop this evening in the regions
which clear over the next 3-4 hours across southwest IL. Fog should
then develop slowly westward across the remainder of the area from
late evening into the overnight hours. Not sure how low the
visibilities and flight conditions will drop, but greatest risk of
dense fog is across southwest IL with IFR across the metro St.
Louis area and better odds at MVFR conditions into central and
northeast MO. Trends this evening once the sun sets will likely
give some indication how much visibilities will deteriorate.
Expecting the fog will dissipate by 15-16z Wednesday with VFR
flight conditions and light winds thereafter.
Specifics for KSTL:
The main issue for tonight is how much fog will develop. Present
thinking is the visibility will begin to lower in the 05-06z time
frame to 3-5 sm and then into the IFR range around 09z. Trends
this evening once the sun sets will likely give some indication
how much visibilities will deteriorate. Expecting the fog will
dissipate by 15z Wednesday with VFR flight conditions and light
winds thereafter.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton
IL-Fayette IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
540 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Rain expanding quickly to the north across southern Missouri at
this time. Latest RAP guidance shows precipitation shield
expanding to at least the I-70 corridor if not even further north
into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Have increased
POPs and trended forecast based on latest radar and RAP data.
Looks like a wet overnight and early Tuesday morning for a good
portion of the forecast area. At least its not snow.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
An upper level trough with embedded shortwaves over the Plains will
approach our area tonight. A south-southwesterly low level jet will
bring low level warm air advection along with increasing moisture to
southeast MO and southern IL tonight. The models were also
depicting some upper level divergence this afternoon and tonight
over much of our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough
and in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region. A surface low will move northeastward into
southern AR by 12z Tuesday with a rain shield spreading northward
into southeast MO south of I-70 this evening, then through southwest
IL and parts of central MO late tonight. The rain will not likely
get any further northwest of a line extending from COU to PPQ.
There may be some fog tonight, mainly across areas of IL north and
east of STL where there is melting snow cover before the rain moves
in.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Rain will continue Tuesday, particularly during the morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly from STL south and east, north
and northwest of the surface low moving northeastward through
western TN and into Kentucky by 00z Wednesday. The rain should
shift east-southeast of our forecast area by early Tuesday evening.
The low level clouds and precipitation will limit daytime heating
and lead to cooler temperatures across southeast MO and southwest
IL on Tuesday, with above normal temperatures continuing across
central and northeast MO. Warmer temperatures can be expected on
Wednesday with weak surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes
region southwest into MO with little cloud cover and plenty of solar
insolation expected. Another round of rain is expected for the end
of the work week ahead of an upper level low over the southern
Plains and north/northwest of another surface low which will move
northward from the Gulf Coast region, then northeastward through the
TN and OH Valley regions Friday night into Saturday. The models
were a little slower bringing rain northward into our area,
particularly the GFS. Tried to go with the compromise solution of
the ECMWF model which is quicker than the GFS, but not as fast as
the NAM with regards to the timing of the rain. Rain may spread
northward into parts of southeast MO Thursday afternoon, then move
through southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly southeast of STL
Thursday night through Friday night. The rain should shift
east-southeast of our forecast area by Saturday with slightly cooler
air moving into the region as an upper level trough moves through
the Great Lakes area and a surface ridge moves southeastward
through the region this weekend. The GFS model is a little cooler
than the ECMWF model due to its deeper upper level trough and slower
movement of the upper level trough as it closes off as it moves
southeastward through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Weak boundary continues to wave across the area, thus wind are
pretty much light and variable. Winds will become more
consistently more southeast tonight as the wave moves out of Texas
and moves northeast. Big question again will be the extend of
MVFR/IFR clouds. Models have been going wild with stratus lately,
and some finally developed over the snow cover across southern
Illinois, and it is still hanging tough as close as Belleville.
IFR with the next system has surged north as far as central
Arkansas. For now will bring MVFR into COU, SUS and CPS about 10z.
Would nto be surprised to see some IFR Tuesday am.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR with some mid cloud and cirrus today,
gradually dropping to MVFR with rain around 10z, which is a good
an estimate as any right now. MOdels pretty consistent with the
shortwave lifting out of Texas, the question will be how much and
when possible IFR arrives. Given STL is more on the edge of this
system will just go with MVFR for now. Would not be surprised to
see IFR sometime Tuesday am.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
822 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE TODAY.
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS THIS WELL COVERED SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
THIS MORNING. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH WILL BE DRY
AND WARM. A DRY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 12Z. A FLAT
NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAP SOUNDINGS HAD MIXING TO
NEAR 600 MB CENTRAL AND W TODAY...AND MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB OVER
THE E. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. HAVE
RAISED THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. WHILE WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT VERY STRONG...A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE GOOD MIXING. LEE
TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG
TIMBER TO KLVM. THE LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT
CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS W OF KBIL. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ON TUE AND MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS TODAY/S MIXING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO THE
WARMING AIRMASS.
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HAVE
LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR TODAY AND TUE. TUE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR KBIL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD...WHICH IS 71
DEGREES...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST. THE MEAN 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY
A WEAK TROF PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY BEFORE IT AGAIN
BUILDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. WE ARE CARRYING A LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE IN
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...BUT OTHERWISE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT
DRAPES ACROSS THE REGION IN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
CARRIED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY...DRIVING TEMPS INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE TROF. DID BUMP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROSPECTIVE CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY POINT TO COOLER THAN ADVERTISED TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS
OF -4C TO -5C AND 850MB TEMPS OF 10C POINT TO MIX DOWN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S. DID LOWER TEMPS INTO LOW 60S AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS GET CLOSER IN TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETURNS FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFIES AND SLIPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING KBIL AND KLVM...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN KLVM AND K6SO BY THIS AFTERNOON. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 036/068 040/073 044/062 039/066 037/070 045/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/B 11/B
LVM 062 036/064 041/072 045/058 037/064 037/066 047/068
0/N 00/N 01/E 13/W 21/U 00/B 11/N
HDN 068 033/071 036/074 041/063 037/068 036/074 039/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/U 01/B
MLS 064 033/067 036/071 042/060 038/064 036/066 043/069
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 063 031/067 034/075 039/061 036/065 033/068 037/070
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/B 00/U 01/B
BHK 061 030/064 033/071 041/058 035/062 032/063 036/066
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 061 029/065 034/074 038/060 037/064 031/071 039/073
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 00/U 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
319 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH WILL BE DRY
AND WARM. A DRY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 12Z. A FLAT
NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAP SOUNDINGS HAD MIXING TO
NEAR 600 MB CENTRAL AND W TODAY...AND MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB OVER
THE E. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. HAVE
RAISED THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. WHILE WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT VERY STRONG...A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE GOOD MIXING. LEE
TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG
TIMBER TO KLVM. THE LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT
CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS W OF KBIL. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ON TUE AND MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS TODAY/S MIXING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO THE
WARMING AIRMASS.
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HAVE
LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR TODAY AND TUE. TUE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR KBIL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD...WHICH IS 71
DEGREES...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST. THE MEAN 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY
A WEAK TROF PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY BEFORE IT AGAIN
BUILDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. WE ARE CARRYING A LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE IN
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...BUT OTHERWISE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT
DRAPES ACROSS THE REGION IN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
CARRIED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY...DRIVING TEMPS INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE TROF. DID BUMP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROSPECTIVE CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY POINT TO COOLER THAN ADVERTISED TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS
OF -4C TO -5C AND 850MB TEMPS OF 10C POINT TO MIX DOWN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S. DID LOWER TEMPS INTO LOW 60S AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS GET CLOSER IN TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETURNS FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFIES AND SLIPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING KBIL AND KLVM...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN KLVM AND K6SO BY THIS AFTERNOON. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 036/068 040/073 044/062 039/066 037/070 045/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/B 11/B
LVM 062 036/064 041/072 045/058 037/064 037/066 047/068
0/N 00/N 01/E 13/W 21/U 00/B 11/N
HDN 068 033/071 036/074 041/063 037/068 036/074 039/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/U 01/B
MLS 064 033/067 036/071 042/060 038/064 036/066 043/069
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 063 031/067 034/075 039/061 036/065 033/068 037/070
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/B 00/U 01/B
BHK 061 030/064 033/071 041/058 035/062 032/063 036/066
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 061 029/065 034/074 038/060 037/064 031/071 039/073
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 00/U 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK SOME ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH THESE
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF FOG THAT WILL LIMIT
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE FOG
MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT MAY
BRING A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
AT 1000 PM...LOW MOISTURE AND DENSE FOG ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA HAVE STARTED TO SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
NAM/GFS BUFKIT BOTH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD SQUEEZE THIS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAUSE
FOG TO BECOME MORE DENSE. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. FOG SHOULD
SPREAD INTO OTHER AREAS...WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
LATE TONIGHT. RISING DEW POINTS SHOULD HELP KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATER TONIGHT SHOW ONLY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT DEEP OR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH SO HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS AND JUST CARRIED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EVEN AS THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS DRIZZLE WILL BE MEASURABLE.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT...THE SNOW PACK STILL
NEEDS TO RIPEN BEFORE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CREEK RESPONSE.
THIS AND THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SHOULD PREVENT ANY
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST.
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY START CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL END THIS AND LOW MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE NAM...HOWEVER
SOMETIMES THE NAM OVERDOES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN THERE IS A SNOW
PACK...AND OTHER GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC. LOOKING
UPSTREAM THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...SO SUSPECT THE NAM IS OVERDONE AND THAT THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MOST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN WESTERN NEW YORK...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GULF. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 40S PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE GULF LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY GETTING PICKED UP BY A VIGOROUS NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND GETTING SWEPT OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO SEE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO RUN
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A LOW FLOOD THREAT WITH LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL/LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED ALONG THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 02Z THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS
OH/PA AND WESTERN NEW YORK...BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JHW OUR
OTHER TAF SITES ARE MVFR OR VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. TIMING
THIS IS DIFFICULT...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE MOST SKILL IN TIMING
THIS SINCE IT MATCHES UP WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THIS LOWERING TREND SHOULD SPREAD FROM SW-NE WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS LIKELY TO LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH TIME. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE W AND BRING IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. HOW LOW CONDITIONS GO
IS UNCERTAIN...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT WITH CIGS
LIKELY TO RISE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT OR SCATTER TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
SUSPECT THE NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN A WINTERY MIX AND RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES
LATE AND OUR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY
PICK UP TO 15 KNOTS OR SO ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A SMALL
CRAFT FOR LAKE ONTARIO.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE LAKES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE WATER
BODIES TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THIS WEEK.
WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WORK ON THE EXTENSIVE
SNOWPACK TO BEGIN A LONG...SLOW MELTDOWN. THE FORECAST CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE IDEAL FOR A SLOW AND ORDERLY MELTING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S DURING THE DAY AND NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. INITIALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL JUST CONSOLIDATE
AND DROP IN DEPTH...BUT MUCH OF THE MELTWATER WILL BE RE-ABSORBED
BY THE REMAINING SNOW UNTIL IT FULLY RIPENS. WITH NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOW MELTING...FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
VERY LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THICK ICE ON AREA CREEKS. USING OUR LATEST
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND OUR LOCALLY DEVELOPED THAWING
DEGREE HOURS TECHNIQUE...THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP TO THE POINT
OF RESULTING IN ICE JAMS THIS WEEK IS ALSO UNLIKELY. THE BUFFALO
AREA FORECAST ACCUMULATES 250 THAWING DEGREE HOURS OVER A 3 DAY
PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH AROUND 320 IN THE WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY. THESE VALUES SUGGEST INSUFFICIENT MELTING OF THE
SNOW TO RAISE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH IN CREEKS TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD
ICE BREAKUP...TYPICALLY WE NEED TO EXCEED 500 THAWING DEGREE HOURS
OVER A 2-3 DAY PERIOD TO BREAK UP THE RIVER ICE. THE PROCESS
WHICH BREAKS UP ICE ON THE CREEKS IS WATER FLOWING ON TOP OF THE
ICE WHICH EVENTUALLY GROWS DEEP ENOUGH AND HEAVY ENOUGH TO BREAK
UP THE ICE. WITH ONLY SLOW MELTING WATER LEVELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO
GET HIGH ENOUGH TO BREAK UP MUCH ICE.
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
MONTH...SEE OUR LATEST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... BUFESFBUF.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
740 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL DIMINISH THE SNOWPACK SOME ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH THESE
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF FOG THAT WILL LIMIT
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE FOG
MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT MAY
BRING A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. AT 700 PM...THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF LOW MOISTURE ACROSS
OHIO WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND SOME FOG. THIS SHOULD
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SOME FOG AS THE MOIST AIR ENCOUNTERS THE DEEP SNOW PACK.
THIS WARMING PROCESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH FOG AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
PREVALENT.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT...THE SNOW PACK STILL
NEEDS TO RIPEN BEFORE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CREEK RESPONSE.
THIS AND THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SHOULD PREVENT ANY
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ADVANCES EASTWARD...IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER.
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY START CLOUDY...WITH AREAS OF FOG...DRIZZLE AND
LOW CLOUDS AROUND. THERE MAY EVEN BE A LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THIS LOW MOISTURE WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE NAM SHOWS A
LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSIONS...BUT
OTHER GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC. LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...SO SUSPECT THE NAM RH MAY BE OVERDONE AND THAT SKIES MAY
CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MOST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN WESTERN NEW YORK...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GULF. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 40S PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE GULF LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY GETTING PICKED UP BY A VIGOROUS NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND GETTING SWEPT OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO SEE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL FOCUS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO RUN
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN A LOW FLOOD THREAT WITH LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL/LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED ALONG THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 23Z THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS OH/PA
AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...BUT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES ARE STILL VFR
OR MVFR. EXPECT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE TOWARD OUR REGION WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS.
USED THE HRRR TO HELP TIME THIS...SINCE IT IS MATCHING UP WELL
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
THIS LOWERING TREND SHOULD SPREAD FROM SW-NE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LIKELY TO LOWER CIGS AND VSBY. THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W AND BRING IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. HOW LOW
CONDITIONS GO IS UNCERTAIN...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE FOG
LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER THE WIND
SHIFT WITH CIGS LIKELY TO RISE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT OR SCATTER TO
VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN A WINTERY MIX AND RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATER BODIES THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES OVERNIGHT AND OUR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY PICK UP TO 15 KNOTS OR SO ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT FOR LAKE ONTARIO.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE LAKES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS TO THE WATER
BODIES TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THIS WEEK.
WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WORK ON THE EXTENSIVE
SNOWPACK TO BEGIN A LONG...SLOW MELTDOWN. THE FORECAST CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE IDEAL FOR A SLOW AND ORDERLY MELTING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S DURING THE DAY AND NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. INITIALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL JUST CONSOLIDATE
AND DROP IN DEPTH...BUT MUCH OF THE MELTWATER WILL BE RE-ABSORBED
BY THE REMAINING SNOW UNTIL IT FULLY RIPENS. WITH NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONLY SLOW MELTING...FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
VERY LOW.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THICK ICE ON AREA CREEKS. USING OUR LATEST
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND OUR LOCALLY DEVELOPED THAWING
DEGREE HOURS TECHNIQUE...THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP TO THE POINT
OF RESULTING IN ICE JAMS THIS WEEK IS ALSO UNLIKELY. THE BUFFALO
AREA FORECAST ACCUMULATES 250 THAWING DEGREE HOURS OVER A 3 DAY
PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH AROUND 320 IN THE WARMER
GENESEE VALLEY. THESE VALUES SUGGEST INSUFFICIENT MELTING OF THE
SNOW TO RAISE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH IN CREEKS TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD
ICE BREAKUP...TYPICALLY WE NEED TO EXCEED 500 THAWING DEGREE HOURS
OVER A 2-3 DAY PERIOD TO BREAK UP THE RIVER ICE. THE PROCESS
WHICH BREAKS UP ICE ON THE CREEKS IS WATER FLOWING ON TOP OF THE
ICE WHICH EVENTUALLY GROWS DEEP ENOUGH AND HEAVY ENOUGH TO BREAK
UP THE ICE. WITH ONLY SLOW MELTING WATER LEVELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO
GET HIGH ENOUGH TO BREAK UP MUCH ICE.
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
MONTH...SEE OUR LATEST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... BUFESFBUF.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
850 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...WITH A
SECOND WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY SHOWING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT POOLING WAS
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD CLOSER
TO SLIGHTLY GREATER OVERALL LIFT AND MOISTURE BASED ON TRENDS FROM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE EXISTS 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING SUCH THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAY BE LARGELY DRY
OVERNIGHT. WRF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS...AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATER CLOSER TO THE JET ALOFT TO OUR NORTH.
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SEEMS QUESTIONABLE SIMPLY BASED ON THE
INCREASE OF 850MB AND 925MB OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTIVE OF MIXING AND
MORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. SREF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS
BULLISH ON PROBABILITIES OF FOG PARTICULARLY EAST OF U.S. 1...AND
THE LATEST HRRR WRF SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG BEGINNING TOWARD
06Z SOUTHEAST OF KFAY AND KGSB. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATING A
GENEROUS LOW CLOUD PRESENCE LATE DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES THAT ARE MUCH
HIGHER THAN EVEN THAT MODEL/S FORECAST PROBABILITIES FOR FOG.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE INCREASED WINDS THAT OCCUR AT 850MB AND 925MB OVERNIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE DURING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED WITH THE
TIMING...SUCH THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WRF ARW AND NMM GUIDANCE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...TOWARD U.S. 1 OR SO BY MID-
TO-LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 IN THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE DAY. FORCING DOES NOT SEEM GREAT WITH THE FRONT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH THE JET TO OUR NORTH AND THE DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL
WIND...BUT THE NAM DOES FORECAST AROUND 300J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6C/KM AND 6.5C/KM
WHICH IN MARCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDER. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST MID-LEVELS DRYING SO THAT BY LATE AT NIGHT
WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT KAFP TO KCTZ.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE DIFFICULT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE DIMINISHING OF LOW CLOUDS. LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND WITH EARLIER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND WITH A BLEND OR
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE
FRONTAL TIMING IS LATER ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET. HIGHS AROUND
70 IN THE TRIAD TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 80 OVER THE FAR SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S TOWARD KIXA TO 50 TO 55 IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE ATTAINED MARCH 11...CONSIDERING THE FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES THINK THE BETTER CHANCE OF THAT...IF IT WOULD
OCCUR...WOULD BE AT KFAY WHERE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DATE
IS 62 SET IN 1925.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY EARLY
ON THURSDAY AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. DRY AIR SURGING SOUTH AND
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS
EARLY EVOLUTION OF THE DAMMING SCENARIO. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF COULD
BE SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUN...WHICH WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH H85 FLOW SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT
BY MORNING...WITH POPS GRADUATED TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST.
DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE PROLONGED INTO SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS
IS DIABATICALLY COOLED...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE DAMMING IS AT ITS PEAK. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEARLY STEADY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST AND ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
AND IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK TO
SCOUR OUT THE DENSE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EARLY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE WEDGE AS A SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE
OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP HIGHS NORTHWEST IN THE 50S...WITH MID 60S
SOUTHEAST. A MORE NORTHERLY POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
ZONE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. UPPER TROF FINALLY ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS EXTENDED DAMMING EVENT ARE A TOUGH
CALL...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGHOUT THE PEAK OF THE DAMMING IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA...WEIGHTED HEAVILY IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING... WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AROUND MID TO LATE
MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT. LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR)
AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG (BEST CHANCE OF FOG AT KFAY) IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTH AND WESTWARD GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... FIRST
ACROSS KFAY AND KRWI. IN FACT SOME GUIDANCES SHOWS SOME PATCHY
IFR/LIFR CIGS AFFECTING KRWI LATE THIS EVENING EVEN. MODELS HINT AT
THE FOG AND STRATUS LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF
SITES... PARTICULARLY AT KRDU AND KRWI. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY RETURN BY AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE CIGS LINGERING IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KRDU AND
KRWI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY REACHING
KGSO/KINT BY 19-21Z... THEN SOUTH AND EASTWARD TOWARDS KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 00Z. AT KFAY... EXPECT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WHILE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER ALL BUT SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS IN W CNTRL ND AND MAY OR MAY NOT
CLEAR BY MORNING...MOST LIKELY THE WRN ZONES WILL SEE CLEARING 3
TO 5 AM. H925 WARM ADVECTION ALSO SUPPORTS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT LOWS...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM SHOWS COOLER TEMPS AFT 06Z IN
THE WEST...MOST LIKELY LINKED TO POSSIBLE CLEARING. FINALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS
ARE GOING CALM IN CNTRL ND AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST BY
MORNING. THEREFORE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN ND TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS NEAR SUNSET...AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S...A QUICK DROP LATE IN THE NIGHT IS
POSSIBLE. DID CUT SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN 2 TO 3 DEG BUT WARMED UP THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS HALTED THE DROP IN TEMPS
IN THE AREAS WITH SOME SNOW COVER. OVERALL STILL A FEW DEG WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BUT IF ALL VARIABLES COME TOGETHER WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST OF THE VALLEY. LESS
LIKELY WITHIN AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY SKY COVER
AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NE ND POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...ONLY SNOW LEFT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST REGION IF CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH STAY CLEAR OF THE AREA. LOADED LATEST RUC GUIDANCE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH 12Z...WHICH DEPICTS THIS IDEA NICELY. H925
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS STAY IN THE UPPER 20S DESPITE
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT ADJUST
WINDS PER RUC GUIDANCE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BASICALLY LIGHT AND
WESTERLY PICKING UP FROM THE SW TOMORROW. ONLY PRECIP IN FCST IS
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT...AND 18Z RUNS SEEM
TO BE PUSHING THIS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...HOWEVER NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES. NOT UNUSUAL FOR TEMP WARMUPS IN
THE LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SEASON TO BE UNDERDONE BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS IS THE CURRENT CASE. AREA REMAINS IN GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SFC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS GOING TO BE A WEAK LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NW ONTARIO
MON EVE. AHD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CONTINUED 925-850 MB WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT A WIND DROP OFF TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
ENOUGH CLEAR SKY TIME FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 20S. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN WRN/CNTRL ND MAY HOWEVER MESS THIS UP FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND TEMPS COULD HOLD UP HIGHER THAN THOUGHT. MONDAY WILL
SEE 925 MB TEMPS A GOOD 5-7C HIGHER THAN TODAY AND AS LONG AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWEST THAN IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RRV...40S
NRN DVL BASIN INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. NOTICED SNOW EATING ON
THE VSBL SAT PIC THIS AFTN IN THE KITTSON-W MARSHALL COUNTY AREA
AND ALSO SOME DIMINISHING IN THE SNOW PACK AROUND LANGDON WHERE
THE AMOUNTS ARE THE HIGHEST. PRETTY MUCH BARE GRAND FORKS SOUTH.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM NW CANADA INTO NW ONTARIO
WILL BRING A SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF PD OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT SO KEPT POPS BUT RESTRICTED THEM
TO 05Z-11Z PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A TAD COOLER AIR MOVES BACK SOUTH BEHIND THE WEAK LOW AS IT PASSES
EAST OF US ON TUESDAY...THEN A WARM UP ENSUES FOR WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN. STUCK TO THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. LOOKING AT EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR RIDGING WITH ONE WEAK WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. GFS/GEM LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE EAST. WILL IGNORE THIS AND STICK WITH
THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. GFS/GEM ALSO A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THIS
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE WARMEST MODEL AND WILL TRY
TO FOLLOW IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
MID LEVEL CIG CURRENTLY OVER RRV AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ND AND NW/W CNTRL MN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BACK EDGE OF 8K
TO 10K FT SWATH CURRENT MOVING JUST EAST OF A MOT TO BIS
LINE...AND WILL REACH RRV NEAR 12Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE PREDOMINANTLY SW TOMORROW AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY OF WEATHER TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST TODAY. AS IT DOES SLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN
THAN THE SOUTH.
THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN EATEN AWAY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL MAKE THE 50S...WITH JUST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES STAYING IN THE
UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AS S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AS H5 FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING PCPN INTO
THE SRN COUNTIES BY 12Z.
INVERTED SFC TROF LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOCUSING THE
BEST LIFT AND PCPN SE OF I-71. UPPED POPS SOME MORE IN THE SE FOR
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODELS WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THE GFS IS BRINGING IN OVER AN
INCH ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. THE NAM IS MORE MUTED WITH AROUND
HALF AN INCH. CONSIDERING THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THROW OUT ITS SOLUTION AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN WILL NE A QUICK
HITTER WILL NOT ISSUE AND FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHUNT THE PCPN EWD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE SE AT THE ONSET OF TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION RANGING
FROM THE MID 30 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN KY. DESPITE THE RAIN
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THE 50S FOR MOSTLY LOCATIONS. MOST
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE THE UPPER 50S AND A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTH COULD MAKE 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN REGION OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT MID WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS THU FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPR 50S
SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. PW/S EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.2 INCHES
OR GREATER THAN 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY JET.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING TIMING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THRU THE WEEK HAVE POTENTIAL TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACRS THE SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL ON
SATURATED GROUND FROM SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO FLOOD PROBLEMS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.
MORE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WITH MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN ENDING PCPN
EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGH LEVELS OF RH IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS CAPTURING
THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH TOWARD
MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MIST AT SOME TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY LOWER THAN THIS GIVEN THE UNRELIABLE GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS. SHALLOW MIST SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MONDAY EVENING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT
RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHERN OHIO HAVE NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND
THROUGH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ALOFT. UNDER A MODERATE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH A WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS THAT HAD BEEN VARIABLE ARE NOW IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...GIVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS
SCENARIO. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN TO SEE RAIN. CINCINNATI IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AT DAYTON AND COLUMBUS THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD VARY FROM
AROUND A HALF AN INCH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DOWN TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE BOOSTED BY WARM ADVECTION...REACHING
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 50 BY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN REGION OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT MID WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS WED/THU FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO
THE UPR 50S SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. PW/S EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.2 INCHES
OR GREATER THAN 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY JET.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING TIMING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THRU THE WEEK HAVE POTENTIAL TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACRS THE SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL ON
SATURATED GROUND FROM SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO FLOOD PROBLEMS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.
MORE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WITH MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN ENDING PCPN
EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGH LEVELS OF RH IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS CAPTURING
THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH TOWARD
MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MIST AT SOME TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY LOWER THAN THIS GIVEN THE UNRELIABLE GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS. SHALLOW MIST SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MONDAY EVENING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE ARE TO REMOVE THE EVENING CLOUDS AND
HIT FOG A LITTLE STRONGER. THE OVERCAST THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY HAS MOVED NORTHEAST AND CLEARED ALL BUT A FEW
ACRES OF SOUTHEAST BRYAN COUNTY. RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ARDMORE
MUNICIPAL NEAR GENE AUTRY HAS JUST GONE TO ZERO VISIBILITY AND
ATOKA JUST CAME DOWN TO 3/4. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THESE LOW VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH A DAMP GROUND...LIGHT WINDS...AND A CLEAR SKY OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD BR...AND A FEW AREAS OF FG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FG IS MOST LIKELY NEAR AND SE OF KSPS TO KLAW TO
KSRE. PARTICULARLY DENSE FG IS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KADM.
ALTHOUGH BR/FG IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SEVERAL MODELS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH TYPICAL OCCURRENCES AFTER
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS IN LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. ASSUMING FG
DOES FORM...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND WE
EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...THANKS TO A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MUNDANE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...A FEW COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT COOL OFF. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
MODELS DIVERGE THAT FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 71 44 69 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 41 72 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 74 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 73 41 70 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 44 69 46 66 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. -RA AND BR/FG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 1/2SM FG... WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4SM FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SWRN OK
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS RELAX AND CEILINGS GO FROM OVC TO BKN/SCT. FELT
CONFIDENT IN PREVAILING 1/2SM FG ACROSS CENTRAL OK... INCLUDING
OKC/OUN/PNC. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT ACROSS WRN
AND SRN OK... FELT TEMPOS WERE WARRANTIED AT CSM/HBR/LAW/SPS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES... BUT GENERAL
DIRECTIONS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
RAINY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE.
DENSE FOG HAS GENERALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THUS...ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. REFORMATION OF DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DOWNWARDS SOUTH OF THE
LINE MENTIONED ABOVE AND SLIGHTLY UPWARDS IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING AND
ADDED THE CLINTON...WEATHERFORD...AND WATONGA AREAS.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID LINE
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
A COOL DREARY WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS.
LATEST VISIBILITIES RANGED BETWEEN 0 AND 1/4 MILE NEAR ALTUS...
CLINTON...AND WEATHERFORD. THINK THIS FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...THUS MADE THE EXTENSION AND EXPANSION
TO THE ADVISORY ABOVE.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. IT APPEARS THAT STEADY
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH. RAIN MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
AREAS...THOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DENSE. MORE DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
DID NOT ALTER FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
TOO WARM WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 42 64 41 / 100 40 10 0
HOBART OK 54 41 66 41 / 70 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 44 65 42 / 90 30 10 0
GAGE OK 64 37 69 39 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 41 67 40 / 30 20 10 0
DURANT OK 53 45 61 45 / 100 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAINY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE.
DENSE FOG HAS GENERALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THUS...ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. REFORMATION OF DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DOWNWARDS SOUTH OF THE
LINE MENTIONED ABOVE AND SLIGHTLY UPWARDS IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING AND
ADDED THE CLINTON...WEATHERFORD...AND WATONGA AREAS.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID LINE
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
A COOL DREARY WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS.
LATEST VISIBILITIES RANGED BETWEEN 0 AND 1/4 MILE NEAR ALTUS...
CLINTON...AND WEATHERFORD. THINK THIS FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...THUS MADE THE EXTENSION AND EXPANSION
TO THE ADVISORY ABOVE.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. IT APPEARS THAT STEADY
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH. RAIN MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
AREAS...THOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DENSE. MORE DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
DID NOT ALTER FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
TOO WARM WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 42 64 41 / 100 40 10 0
HOBART OK 54 41 66 41 / 70 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 44 65 42 / 90 30 10 0
GAGE OK 64 37 69 39 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 41 67 40 / 30 20 10 0
DURANT OK 53 45 61 45 / 100 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
902 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING AND
ADDED THE CLINTON...WEATHERFORD...AND WATONGA AREAS.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID LINE
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A COOL DREARY WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS.
LATEST VISIBILITIES RANGED BETWEEN 0 AND 1/4 MILE NEAR ALTUS...
CLINTON...AND WEATHERFORD. THINK THIS FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...THUS MADE THE EXTENSION AND EXPANSION
TO THE ADVISORY ABOVE.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. IT APPEARS THAT STEADY
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH. RAIN MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
AREAS...THOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DENSE. MORE DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
DID NOT ALTER FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
TOO WARM WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 42 64 41 / 100 40 10 0
HOBART OK 56 41 66 41 / 50 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 44 65 42 / 90 30 10 0
GAGE OK 62 37 69 39 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 41 67 40 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 50 45 61 45 / 100 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ015>017-
021>023-033>038.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
948 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE DEFINITIVE MOISTURE DEPTH GRADIENT IS BECOMING
MORE APPARENT AS NW AREAS ARE SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS JUST PUSHED ACROSS THE CKV AND BWG
AREAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
PLATEAU AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1F AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
ALSO...WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL ONLY CARRY 30 AND 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
850 MB TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ENHANCE OUR LOW LEVEL LIFT. LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH MOISTURE
FILLING IN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BY 06Z. FAR NW AREAS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AL OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHEN THIS MOISTURE MEETS UP WITH THE
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE RADAR SHOULD FILL IN NICELY.
SO...CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SE
HALF AND THEN A LIKELY AREA JUST NW OF THERE...FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
OTW...LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS
ACROSS THE NW AS SOME CAA TAKES PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 11/24Z. WRN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION FETCH
CONNECTION PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU 11/24Z...BUT WITH
A SLIGHT SHIFT EWD AS PERIOD TIME PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z
BNA/CKV. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE AND
POTENTIALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z CKV...ALTHOUGH IFR FOG
INDUCED VSBYS ANTICIPATED. ALSO EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM 11/03Z-11/18Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 11/18Z AS BULK OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EWD.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SLUG OF
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE GULF INTO LA/MS...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW LOW CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES
BUT CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WAA HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S/50S.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL WIN OUT
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG WAA COMBINED
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LI VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LATEST WPC QPF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SHOW
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. ASOS LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED 0.50 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
ABOUT HALF WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL/WPC QPF SHOWED.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOOKING AT 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND MAY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR
ESF.
BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS
INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS IT LINGERS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING IT
EASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THINGS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH AND DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 52 64 50 65 / 60 40 20 80
CLARKSVILLE 47 62 49 62 / 40 20 20 80
CROSSVILLE 52 63 49 63 / 90 70 20 80
COLUMBIA 54 65 52 67 / 70 50 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 55 65 53 68 / 70 60 40 80
WAVERLY 49 63 49 63 / 50 30 20 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
712 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
850 MB TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ENHANCE OUR LOW LEVEL LIFT. LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH MOISTURE
FILLING IN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BY 06Z. FAR NW AREAS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AL OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHEN THIS MOISTURE MEETS UP WITH THE
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE RADAR SHOULD FILL IN NICELY.
SO...CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SE
HALF AND THEN A LIKELY AREA JUST NW OF THERE...FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
OTW...LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS
ACROSS THE NW AS SOME CAA TAKES PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 11/24Z. WRN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION FETCH
CONNECTION PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU 11/24Z...BUT WITH
A SLIGHT SHIFT EWD AS PERIOD TIME PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z
BNA/CKV. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE AND
POTENTIALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z CKV...ALTHOUGH IFR FOG
INDUCED VSBYS ANTICIPATED. ALSO EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM 11/03Z-11/18Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 11/18Z AS BULK OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EWD.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SLUG OF
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE GULF INTO LA/MS...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW LOW CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES
BUT CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WAA HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S/50S.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL WIN OUT
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG WAA COMBINED
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LI VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LATEST WPC QPF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SHOW
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. ASOS LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED 0.50 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
ABOUT HALF WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL/WPC QPF SHOWED.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOOKING AT 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND MAY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR
ESF.
BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS
INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS IT LINGERS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING IT
EASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THINGS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH AND DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 52 64 50 65 / 70 40 20 80
CLARKSVILLE 47 62 49 62 / 40 20 20 80
CROSSVILLE 52 63 49 63 / 90 70 20 80
COLUMBIA 54 65 52 67 / 80 50 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 55 65 53 68 / 80 60 40 80
WAVERLY 49 63 49 63 / 40 30 20 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
652 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 11/24Z. WRN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION FETCH
CONNECTION PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU 11/24Z...BUT WITH
A SLIGHT SHIFT EWD AS PERIOD TIME PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z
BNA/CKV. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE AND
POTENTIALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z CKV...ALTHOUGH IFR FOG
INDUCED VSBYS ANTICIPATED. ALSO EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM 11/03Z-11/18Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 11/18Z AS BULK OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EWD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SLUG OF
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE GULF INTO LA/MS...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW LOW CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES
BUT CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WAA HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S/50S.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL WIN OUT
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG WAA COMBINED
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LI VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LATEST WPC QPF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SHOW
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. ASOS LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED 0.50 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
ABOUT HALF WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL/WPC QPF SHOWED.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOOKING AT 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND MAY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR
ESF.
BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS
INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS IT LINGERS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING IT
EASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THINGS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH AND DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
128 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST OF ALL THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILDER AIR ALONG WITH MELTING SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS WAS
HELPING TO CAUSE THE FOG. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS WITH PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A VERY WET WORK WEEK FOR THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
PRESENTLY INDICATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE
TN RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS OVER TX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING BACK
OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...REACHING TO NEAR JONESBORO AND
JACKSON AROUND NOON WITH RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTH MS BY THAT
TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE AND A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH
POPS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE REGION MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
THE ECMWF DOES KEEP THE RAIN IN LONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
MENTIONED THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FINALLY CHANGES AND WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR SATURDAY...
BUT THINK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY.
JCL
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
A BROKEN AREA OF RAIN FROM EAST TX INTO SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE
IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AN ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES SHOULD GET
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT.
WER
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST OF ALL THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILDER AIR ALONG WITH MELTING SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS WAS
HELPING TO CAUSE THE FOG. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS WITH PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A VERY WET WORK WEEK FOR THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
PRESENTLY INDICATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE
TN RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS OVER TX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING BACK
OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...REACHING TO NEAR JONESBORO AND
JACKSON AROUND NOON WITH RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTH MS BY THAT
TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE AND A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH
POPS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE REGION MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
THE ECMWF DOES KEEP THE RAIN IN LONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
MENTIONED THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FINALLY CHANGES AND WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR SATURDAY...
BUT THINK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY.
JCL
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING UNTIL
APPROXIMATELY 15Z WHEN ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT RAINFALL WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS. JBR HAS BEEN BELOW 1/2 SM ALL NIGHT IN
FOG AND THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WHEN ONLY
SMALL IMPROVEMENTS UP TO 2SM WILL BE MADE. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN LIGHT WINDS. ONCE LIGHT RAINFALL STARTS LATER THIS
MORNING...EXPECT IS TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE RAINFALL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HENRY-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
430 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST OF ALL THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILDER AIR ALONG WITH MELTING SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS WAS
HELPING TO CAUSE THE FOG. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS WITH PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A VERY WET WORK WEEK FOR THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
PRESENTLY INDICATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE
TN RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS OVER TX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING BACK
OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...REACHING TO NEAR JONESBORO AND
JACKSON AROUND NOON WITH RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTH MS BY THAT
TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE AND A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH
POPS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE REGION MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
THE ECMWF DOES KEEP THE RAIN IN LONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
MENTIONED THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FINALLY CHANGES AND WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR SATURDAY...
BUT THINK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF JBR...MEM AND MKL FOR THE TIME
BEING. GIVEN THE COOL GROUND TEMPS FROM RECENT SNOWPACK AND
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 SM OR LESS. THIS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEM AND MKL
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS JBR. CIGS WILL STILL FALL
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HENRY-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
117 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8
PM CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WAITING ON THE 00Z
MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BUT THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THUS
SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
THE MID 40S.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ONE SYSTEM
AFTER ANOTHER INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH WILL BRING THE SFC LOW NEAR MEMPHIS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE SFC
LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE COULD BE A
LULL IN THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF ENDS RAIN
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER TROF. FOR NOW KEPT AT LEAST
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF JBR...MEM AND MKL FOR THE TIME
BEING. GIVEN THE COOL GROUND TEMPS FROM RECENT SNOWPACK AND
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 SM OR LESS. THIS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGHT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEM AND MKL
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS JBR. CIGS WILL STILL FALL
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1232 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8
PM CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WAITING ON THE 00Z
MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BUT THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THUS
SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
THE MID 40S.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ONE SYSTEM
AFTER ANOTHER INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH WILL BRING THE SFC LOW NEAR MEMPHIS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE SFC
LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE COULD BE A
LULL IN THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF ENDS RAIN
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER TROF. FOR NOW KEPT AT LEAST
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
KRM
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF JBR...MEM AND MKL FOR THE TIME
BEING. GIVEN THE COOL GROUND TEMPS FROM RECENT SNOWPACK AND
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 SM OR LESS. THIS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGHT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEM AND MKL
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS JBR. CIGS WILL STILL FALL
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1056 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
PRETTY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING A BIT FASTER
THAN TRENDED IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. SO ADJUSTED FOR THAT. RE-
EVALUATED FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RANGING
FROM 3-10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY STAYING QUITE DRY. THE OBS ARE HINTING AT A PRETTY ISOLATED
FOG SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
POCKETS OF SURFACE MOISTURE SO KEPT THE AREA WIDE PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
TB3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT DRT/SAT/SSF. OVC CEILINGS
RUNNING 2000-3500 FEET ALONG AND EAST OF A BMQ-BAZ-T20 LINE. THIS
CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO WORK BACK OVER SAT/SSF OVERNIGHT...SHOWN
BY HRRR AND CURRENT TAFS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...BUT SOONER
BY RAP. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD
ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
AUS/SSF/SAT AROUND SUNRISE...BUT MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD PLAY A ROLE
IN LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE. MVFR CLOUD COULD REACH DRT AFTER 12Z.
N TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMER READINGS
WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRODUCTION OF GROUND FOG. THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW FOG THAT WOULD BE MORE DENSE. WILL KEEP JUST PATCHY FOG
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODELS HAVE NOT JUMPED ON BOARD YET. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT-TERM
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MENTION 20
POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...OUT OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF BY
SATURDAY. THE MAIN PARENT TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES PERSISTENT TO WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE CUT OFF LOW TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST...THUS IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST 20 POPS TUESDAY UNTIL THERE IS MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 70 51 72 50 / - 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 69 51 71 48 / - 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 46 70 51 73 49 / - 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 68 49 70 47 / - - - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 75 48 72 50 / - - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 68 50 70 48 / - - 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 71 49 73 48 / - - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 69 51 72 49 / - 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 47 69 50 71 50 / - 10 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 70 51 73 49 / - - 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 48 70 51 73 50 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY
LOWERING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOW 50S AND THINK MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THIS RANGE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA BUT LIKELY
JUST KEEP LOW CEILINGS. OVERALL FORECAST IS LOOKING ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE STILL SHOWING CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL
CIGS REMAIN AT MVFR BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP FROM 02-03Z AS
WINDS DECREASE. T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES APART WHICH
SHOULD HELP CEILINGS DECREASE TONIGHT AS RH INCREASES. GFS IS
RATHER PESSIMISTIC AND NAM OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS. HRRR KEEPS CIGS
IFR SO WILL KEEP THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LIFR CIGS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED IF ANY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TO MVFR
LEVELS. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING THE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARDS
SW LA BUT MAY GET ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH/
LOCATION/TIMING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EITHER TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A LOT OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT IS HARD TO PREDICT WITH CONFIDENCE WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL END UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND FURTHER EASTWARD FORECAST
CARRIED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. OUR FORECAST WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT INLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST...WE WON`T SEE MUCH RAIN. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS
UP FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE RAIN THAN IS
CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST. HOPEFULLY WE SEE SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
SOON. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 42
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW (N TO NE) TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WED AFT THROUGH THURS A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE
POSITION/TIMING OF THIS LOW. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLN WHICH
IS SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISO TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED
THROUGH THU AM. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT SUPPORTS SCEC WINDS MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WED NIGHT/THU AM. A
PACIFIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE COAST
SATURDAY BUT NW WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY/CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. 33
CLIMATE...
FOR MARCH 1-9...
CLL HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.3 DEGREES WHICH IS 11.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...CLL HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 4.00 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.17 INCHES).
IAH HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 53.4 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...IAH HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.83 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.41 INCHES).
HOU HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 55.7 DEGREES WHICH IS 5.4 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...HOU HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.53 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.20 INCHES).
GLS HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 54.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.2 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...GLS HAS RECORDED 1.60 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
IS 0.56 INCHES BELOW NORMAL (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.16 INCHES).
42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
SEEING A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFT. THINK ALL SITES
WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR THIS AFT. SHOULD SEE IFR
CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVE. LIFR CEILINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW...OPTED TO STAY IFR AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE
SOME INLAND MVFR BR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS MID-DAY WED.
RAIN CHANCE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST JUST AFTER THE TAF PD.
33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 68 51 69 50 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 65 54 70 52 / 10 10 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 53 62 56 65 55 / 10 20 40 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
731 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A
MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT AND MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE WE
INITIALLY HAD BELOW 10 PERCENT POPS. EVEN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING WITH A THIN LAYER DRY AIR
RESIDING IN THE MID LAYERS AND A PERSISTENT HRRR MODEL SHOWING
MUCH OF THE RAIN DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID AND UPPER
VALLEY THOUGHT A 20 PERCENT FOR THE EVENING SHOULD COVER THIS
PATCH OF RAIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR AROUND 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IS
WHAT WE EXPECT AT THIS TIME. AS THE EARLIER FORECAST HAS STATED
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER BET OF RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY WHERE A DEEPER
LAYER OF MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED AFTER DATA
ARRIVES WITH THE 00Z BALLOON LAUNCH. ZONES AND POINT AND CLICK
UPDATED SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS TEXAS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO FORM TO
THE SOUTHWEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE
CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS AND MAINLY CAMERON COUNTY TOMORROW...SO
HAVE LIMITED POP TOMORROW TO RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE CURRENT
WAVE EJECTS TO THE NORTH LATER TOMORROW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE FURTHER INTO OUR AREA...WITH MINIMAL POP
CHANCE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SERIES OF 500 MB TROUGHS OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER STATES AND
INTO WESTERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 500 MB LOW BECOMES
CUT OFF BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE POOL
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...HOLDING SEAS AROUND 4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
719 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT DRT/SAT/SSF. OVC CEILINGS
RUNNING 2000-3500 FEET ALONG AND EAST OF A BMQ-BAZ-T20 LINE. THIS
CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO WORK BACK OVER SAT/SSF OVERNIGHT...SHOWN
BY HRRR AND CURRENT TAFS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...BUT SOONER
BY RAP. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD
ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT
AUS/SSF/SAT AROUND SUNRISE...BUT MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD PLAY A ROLE
IN LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE. MVFR CLOUD COULD REACH DRT AFTER 12Z.
N TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMER READINGS
WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRODUCTION OF GROUND FOG. THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW FOG THAT WOULD BE MORE DENSE. WILL KEEP JUST PATCHY FOG
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODELS HAVE NOT JUMPED ON BOARD YET. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT-TERM
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MENTION 20
POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...OUT OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF BY
SATURDAY. THE MAIN PARENT TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES PERSISTENT TO WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE CUT OFF LOW TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST...THUS IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST 20 POPS TUESDAY UNTIL THERE IS MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 70 51 72 50 / - 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 69 51 71 48 / - 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 70 51 73 49 / - 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 68 49 70 47 / - - - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 50 75 48 72 50 / - - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 68 50 70 48 / - - 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 71 49 73 48 / - - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 69 51 72 49 / - 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 69 50 71 50 / - 10 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 70 51 73 49 / - - 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 70 51 73 50 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE STILL SHOWING CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL
CIGS REMAIN AT MVFR BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP FROM 02-03Z AS
WINDS DECREASE. T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES APART WHICH
SHOULD HELP CEILINGS DECREASE TONIGHT AS RH INCREASES. GFS IS
RATHER PESSIMISTIC AND NAM OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS. HRRR KEEPS CIGS
IFR SO WILL KEEP THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LIFR CIGS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED IF ANY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TO MVFR
LEVELS. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING THE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARDS
SW LA BUT MAY GET ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH/
LOCATION/TIMING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EITHER TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A LOT OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT IS HARD TO PREDICT WITH CONFIDENCE WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL END UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND FURTHER EASTWARD FORECAST
CARRIED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. OUR FORECAST WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT INLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST...WE WON`T SEE MUCH RAIN. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS
UP FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE RAIN THAN IS
CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST. HOPEFULLY WE SEE SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
SOON. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 42
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW (N TO NE) TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WED AFT THROUGH THURS A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE
POSITION/TIMING OF THIS LOW. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLN WHICH
IS SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISO TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED
THROUGH THU AM. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT SUPPORTS SCEC WINDS MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WED NIGHT/THU AM. A
PACIFIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE COAST
SATURDAY BUT NW WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY/CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. 33
CLIMATE...
FOR MARCH 1-9...
CLL HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.3 DEGREES WHICH IS 11.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...CLL HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 4.00 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.17 INCHES).
IAH HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 53.4 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...IAH HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.83 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.41 INCHES).
HOU HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 55.7 DEGREES WHICH IS 5.4 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...HOU HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.53 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.20 INCHES).
GLS HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 54.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.2 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...GLS HAS RECORDED 1.60 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
IS 0.56 INCHES BELOW NORMAL (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.16 INCHES).
42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
SEEING A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFT. THINK ALL SITES
WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR THIS AFT. SHOULD SEE IFR
CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVE. LIFR CEILINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW...OPTED TO STAY IFR AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE
SOME INLAND MVFR BR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS MID-DAY WED.
RAIN CHANCE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST JUST AFTER THE TAF PD.
33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 68 51 69 50 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 65 54 70 52 / 10 10 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 53 62 56 65 55 / 10 20 40 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An upper shortwave moving northeast across West Texas this afternoon
was bringing light showers...mainly along and north of Big Lake...
San Angelo...Brownwood line. The showers will come to an end tonight
as the the upper shortwave brings subsidence in its wake. The short
range HRRR and NAM models depict the current showers the best, indicating
them to gradually weaken and dissipate over the Big Country this
evening. Have a 50 percent chance of showers over the Big Country
this evening, with a slight chance to the south. A moist boundary
layer and wet vegetation will promote fog formation tonight, but
with low and mid level clouds in place, dense fog is not expected.
Models indicate clearing skies Tuesday as dry mid level air moves in
from the west. Most areas will see partly cloudy skies by mid
afternoon. Highs are expected in the lower and mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
The rest of the week into next weekend looks pleasant for our
area, with less cloud cover and near seasonal temperatures.
Upper trough extending from eastern Kansas southwest across Texas
into Mexico will slowly weaken through Wednesday, with a weak closed
low developing over north-central or northwest Texas on Thursday.
An upstream shortwave trough is progged to dive south across the
Great Basin, forming a closed low over northwest Mexico on Friday.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF take the low south across western Mexico, to
just south of the Baja Peninsula next weekend. This will help to
maintain a weak upper trough from Missouri southwest across Texas
and Mexico. Despite the position of the trough, a lack of
sufficient moisture and weak lift will result in minimal rain
chances for our area. With a lack of cold air intrusions or
significant warmups, temperatures will be close to normal for this
time in March. May see a backdoor cold frontal passage Saturday
night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 43 64 43 69 43 / 50 10 5 10 5
San Angelo 45 67 40 71 42 / 20 10 5 10 5
Junction 48 65 42 70 42 / 20 10 10 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES ARE ON THE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO VFR.
PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT KCDS AT TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PRECLUDES DISPERSING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR TIMELINE FOR DISPERSION TOMORROW
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LIFR DECKS AND VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KPVW...LIFR DECKS AND VLIFR
VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KLBB
THUS FAR THOUGH VIS HAS DROPPED TO 6SM. HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS
HINT AT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AT KLBB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR DECKS AND IFR VIS FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE AT KLBB...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT THE
FOG TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING AS WELL AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENSUE UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHERE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT -SHRA COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INSERT A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A JET STREAK/LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UA
TROUGH...THAT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX...AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS MANAGED TO
DRIFT NWRD TO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. E-SE SFC WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW
SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN /WHERE
THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ AND DRIFTING TO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-7
DEGREES EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. MOST METARS EAST
AND SE OF THE FA REPORT FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5
MILES...WITH A FEW STATIONS HAVING DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4
MILE ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND EXHIBITS BOTH THE
FOG AND STRATUS DECKS FILLING IN WESTWARD TO ACROSS ALL BUT
PERHAPS THE FAR WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY
FALLING BELOW 1/2 MILE...BEFORE IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FURTHERMORE...SFC WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE N-NE CWA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SWRD.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAK WILL BE FLEETING BY
MORNING THUS HINTING AT LOWERED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE ERN
SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION LEAVING LINGERING PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS FINALLY SEEM TO BE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE MID-TERM. THE JET STREAK BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE THE AREA WILL SPRINT NEWD TONIGHT LEAVING A TROUGH
BACK OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO
ELONGATE SWD AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FROM THE NRN JET STREAM AND LINGERING OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
MIDWEEK. STILL...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK WITH NO
REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION /ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLITY OF FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS ERN NM WHICH WILL HAVE ONLY THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF DRIFTING EWD INTO THE FAR SWRN PANHANDLE/.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THEN HAVE
ITS ENERGY SPLIT WITH THE SRN PIECE MOVING SWD TO THE 4-CORNERS
WHERE IT THEN CLOSES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO KICK THE CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEWD. THIS
4-CORNERS LOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER TO WRN PARTS
OF THE FCST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING LESS
FAVORABLE AS EACH RUN SEEMS TO HOLD THIS ENERGY FARTHER TO THE
WEST. ATTM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES IN AIR MASS SUGGEST
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. A MODEST COLD
FRONT DROPPING TEMPS SOME LATE IN THE WEEK THE EXCEPTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 34 62 35 / 20 0 10 0
TULIA 55 34 64 37 / 20 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 56 34 63 38 / 20 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 58 35 64 39 / 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 58 35 65 39 / 30 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 37 62 40 / 30 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 36 63 39 / 30 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 56 40 68 41 / 40 20 10 0
SPUR 54 40 65 41 / 50 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 53 42 64 41 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN SHIELD IS CLEAR OF KDRT AND IN WILL BE CLEAR OF KSSF/KSAT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BUT GENERALLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS
APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOWERING CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LIFR FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MID MORNING TOMORROW.
TB3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MEDINA AND FRIO
COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL
CANCELLATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THE BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST A BIT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR BY 2 PM THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA BY 22Z. UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
THIS PROGRESSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 48 65 47 71 49 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 64 47 70 48 / 20 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 66 47 71 48 / 20 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 63 45 69 46 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 51 71 50 74 49 / 20 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 63 46 69 47 / 20 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 69 47 72 46 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 65 47 70 49 / 20 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 64 50 69 51 / 50 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 67 48 71 48 / 20 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 68 48 72 49 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MEDINA AND FRIO
COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL
CANCELLATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THE BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST A BIT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR BY 2 PM THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA BY 22Z. UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
THIS PROGRESSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 90 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1025 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THE BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST A BIT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR BY 2 PM THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA BY 22Z. UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
THIS PROGRESSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 90 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...
LEE...MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 60 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...
LIFR DECKS AND VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KPVW...LIFR DECKS AND VLIFR
VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KLBB
THUS FAR THOUGH VIS HAS DROPPED TO 6SM. HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS
HINT AT CONDITIONS DETEORIATING AT KLBB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR DECKS AND IFR VIS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
AT KLBB...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT BY LATE MORNING AS WELL AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENSUE UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT -SHRA COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INSERT A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A JET STREAK/LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UA
TROUGH...THAT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX...AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS MANAGED TO
DRIFT NWRD TO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. E-SE SFC WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW
SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN /WHERE
THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ AND DRIFTING TO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-7
DEGREES EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. MOST METARS EAST
AND SE OF THE FA REPORT FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5
MILES...WITH A FEW STATIONS HAVING DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4
MILE ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND EXHIBITS BOTH THE
FOG AND STRATUS DECKS FILLING IN WESTWARD TO ACROSS ALL BUT
PERHAPS THE FAR WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY
FALLING BELOW 1/2 MILE...BEFORE IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FURTHERMORE...SFC WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE N-NE CWA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SWRD.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAK WILL BE FLEETING BY
MORNING THUS HINTING AT LOWERED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE ERN
SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION LEAVING LINGERING PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS FINALLY SEEM TO BE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE MID-TERM. THE JET STREAK BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE THE AREA WILL SPRINT NEWD TONIGHT LEAVING A TROUGH
BACK OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO
ELONGATE SWD AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FROM THE NRN JET STREAM AND LINGERING OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
MIDWEEK. STILL...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK WITH NO
REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION /ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLITY OF FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS ERN NM WHICH WILL HAVE ONLY THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF DRIFTING EWD INTO THE FAR SWRN PANHANDLE/.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THEN HAVE
ITS ENERGY SPLIT WITH THE SRN PIECE MOVING SWD TO THE 4-CORNERS
WHERE IT THEN CLOSES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO KICK THE CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEWD. THIS
4-CORNERS LOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER TO WRN PARTS
OF THE FCST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING LESS
FAVORABLE AS EACH RUN SEEMS TO HOLD THIS ENERGY FARTHER TO THE
WEST. ATTM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES IN AIR MASS SUGGEST
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. A MODEST COLD
FRONT DROPPING TEMPS SOME LATE IN THE WEEK THE EXCEPTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 34 62 35 / 20 0 10 0
TULIA 55 34 64 37 / 20 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 56 34 63 38 / 20 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 58 35 64 39 / 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 58 35 65 39 / 30 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 37 62 40 / 30 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 36 63 39 / 30 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 56 40 68 41 / 40 20 10 0
SPUR 54 40 65 41 / 50 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 53 42 64 41 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 60 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
320 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A JET STREAK/LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UA
TROUGH...THAT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX...AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS MANAGED TO
DRIFT NWRD TO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. E-SE SFC WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW
SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN /WHERE
THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ AND DRIFTING TO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-7
DEGREES EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. MOST METARS EAST
AND SE OF THE FA REPORT FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5
MILES...WITH A FEW STATIONS HAVING DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4
MILE ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND EXHIBITS BOTH THE
FOG AND STRATUS DECKS FILLING IN ERWD TO ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW
1/2 MILE...BEFORE IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SO MOTORISTS
ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FURTHERMORE...SFC WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE N-NE CWA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SWRD.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAK WILL BE FLEETING BY
MORNING THUS HINTING AT LOWERED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE ERN
SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION LEAVING LINGERING PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS FINALLY SEEM TO BE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE MID-TERM. THE JET STREAK BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE THE AREA WILL SPRINT NEWD TONIGHT LEAVING A TROUGH
BACK OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO
ELONGATE SWD AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FROM THE NRN JET STREAM AND LINGERING OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
MIDWEEK. STILL...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK WITH NO
REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION /ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLITY OF FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN ERN NM WHICH WILL HAVE ONLY THE SLIGHTEST
CHANCE OF DRIFTING EWD INTO THE FAR SWRN PANHANDLE/. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THEN HAVE ITS ENERGY
SPLIT WITH THE SRN PIECE MOVING SWD TO THE 4-CORNERS WHERE IT THEN
CLOSES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO KICK THE
CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEWD. THIS 4-CORNERS LOW MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER TO WRN PARTS OF THE FCST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE AS EACH RUN SEEMS TO HOLD
THIS ENERGY FARTHER TO THE WEST. ATTM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL
LOOK REASONABLE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. NO
BIG CHANGES IN AIR MASS SUGGEST RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEK. A MODEST COLD FRONT DROPPING TEMPS SOME LATE IN
THE WEEK THE EXCEPTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 34 62 35 / 20 0 10 0
TULIA 55 34 64 37 / 20 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 56 34 63 38 / 20 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 58 35 64 39 / 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 58 35 65 39 / 30 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 37 62 40 / 30 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 36 63 39 / 30 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 56 40 68 41 / 40 20 10 0
SPUR 54 40 65 41 / 50 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 53 42 64 41 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.AVIATION...
JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA NOW BUT
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GRADUALLY
INCREASE...WITH STEADY RAIN OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES BY MORNING.
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...UNTIL DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN MONDAY EVENING.
LIFR CIGS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS NEAR 200FT
NOW AT KACT AND KFTW. GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN BETWEEN
200-500 FT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WITH CIGS PREVAILING FROM 300-700FT. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR
WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AFTER RAIN ENDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS RESULT IN A LITTLE DRY ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE.
VSBY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURRING WEST OF I-35
IN RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OF SATURATED AIR MASS. THUS WILL KEEP
KDFW/KGKY/KDAL/KAFW TAF SITES GENERALLY MVFR WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECT
IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...KFTW AND KACT WILL LIKELY SEE IFR OR LOWER
VSBY UNTIL STEADY RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE
MVFR VSBY PREVAIL IN RAIN MONDAY. AFTER RAIN ENDS...NORTH WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHERE ITS NOT RAINING...BUT
LEFT HIGH POPS IN FOR THE 1AM TO 7AM PERIOD. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
AREA OF FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SINCE WE DO NOT FEEL
VISIBILITIES WILL STAY 1/4 MILE OR LESS MUCH LONGER AS SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AND THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AS WELL. IF MORE SITES
CRATER TO/BELOW 1/4 MILE...THEN AN ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED.
DUE TO THE TIME CHANGE...THE NAM IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE FOR THE
EVENING NEWS BROADCASTS. WE DO HAVE THE CURRENT HRRR HI-RES WHICH
CONFIRMS THAT THE RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. LOTS OF METEOROLOGY AND DYNAMICS...LIFT FROM A JET
COUPLET...ISENTROPIC ASCENT...HIGH PWATS...MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL GULF FETCH...ARE AT WORK WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...THE FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE TWO OR MORE INCHES SHOULD FALL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
75
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE SKIES HAVE BECOME MORE BROKEN IN NATURE. TEMPS IN
GENERAL STILL LOOK ON TRACK ACROSS MOST AREAS...HOWEVER. THERE IS A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WE EXPECT
THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY INDICATING NEW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
THE 12 UTC FWD RAOB IN CONJUNCTION WITH GPS AND SATELLITE
DERIVED /BLENDED TPW/ PRECIPITABLE VALUES SUGGEST ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1
AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PLACES MOST OF THE REGION
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TRENDS
IN THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY SUCH THAT SOME AREAS OF OUR CWA WILL BE NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR SLOWLY NUDGES NORTHWARD. IN FACT...LOCATIONS MAY EVEN
WARM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES
AROUND THE QPF/POPS ON MONDAY. MOST HI-RES AND EVEN COARSE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
NOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCH CLOSER AND
CLOSER TO OUR CWA. CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE CENTERPIECE OF
FLANKING 300MB SPEED MAXIMA TOMORROW MORNING. THE RESULTANT
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE FROM THE COUPLING OF THESE JETS WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK OF THIS
CYCLONE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
SHOULD THIS LOW SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH...MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS...ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA SHOW A VERY MOIST
PROFILE...WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
WITH SUCH STRONG UPLIFT...WE DO FEEL THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN OUR CWA /MAINLY SHOWERS/ THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT THESE TYPES OF SATURATED PROFILES
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO BE EFFICIENT FOR THUNDER AND CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES /LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF GRAUPEL OR OTHER ICE THROUGH A GREAT DEAL OF THE PROFILE/.
THESE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
ISSUE AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO GROESBECK TO PALESTINE LINE THRU 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER AREAS WILL STILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAIN
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. RAINFALL SHOULD
REALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
15-BAIN
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT
OF THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO BACKING WINDS...AND THEREFORE WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION...WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CAUSING THE RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL NOT
MOVE FAR BEFORE BECOMING CUT OFF OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BECOMING CUT OFF...AND THEN RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNDERNEATH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS AND KEEP THE AREA SHUT
OFF FROM BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR
NOW...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD. 77.STALLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 47 50 46 64 46 / 80 90 40 10 5
WACO, TX 48 52 47 64 43 / 90 100 40 10 5
PARIS, TX 46 52 44 62 44 / 90 80 50 20 10
DENTON, TX 47 51 44 62 43 / 90 80 40 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 46 51 45 63 43 / 90 90 40 10 5
DALLAS, TX 47 51 46 64 48 / 80 90 40 10 5
TERRELL, TX 47 52 47 64 46 / 90 90 50 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 48 54 49 66 47 / 90 100 50 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 48 52 47 64 44 / 100 100 40 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 47 52 43 65 43 / 50 80 30 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ147-148-158-160>162-
174-175.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
216 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
LATER TONIGHT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING ON KFCX IN THE WATAUGA/WILKES
COUNTY REGION...BUT OBS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND.
NOT A WHOLE LOT MORE UPSTREAM AND EVEN BACK INTO GA DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...INDICATE SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AROUND 12Z...SO
RETAINED THE VERY LOW POPS INTO THE FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...COMBINED WITH
HIGH- LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CREATING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPS A TAD
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MODIFIED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN QUITE A WHILE.
AS OF 830 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A WEAK/ELONGATED PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SHEAR EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING A THICKENING CANOPY OVERTOP LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE RIDING INTO FAR SW SECTIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADAR SHOWING MOST RAINFALL STILL WELL TO THE WEST PER
LATEST MOSAIC SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE INTO THE DRY AIR.
BOTH THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF SOLUTIONS DO BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO THE NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE DESPITE RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS. THEREFORE KEPT IN
SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH MORNING. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
TRICKY GIVEN TIMING/THICKNESS OF CLOUDS...AND POTENTIAL FOR
READINGS TO FALL MORE THAN EXPECTED ESPCLY EAST AND IN VALLEYS
OVER THE WEST IF CLOUDS FADE A BIT GIVEN THE DRY AIR. APPEARS
RANGE FROM LOW/MID 40S WESTERN RIDGES...TO MID/UPPER 30S EAST AND
BLUE RIDGE...TO AROUND 30 VALLEYS BEST AT THIS POINT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW BUMPS IN THE ROAD. SATELLITE
SHOWS FEW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE MEAN WESTERN UPPER TROF.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT AND MODELS EVEN WANT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS. WILL USE A LOW CHANCE POP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. CLOUDS
SHOULD MAKE FOR LOWS TONIGHT A FEW TICKS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW/MID 40S EAST.
BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTH AND TAKE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS WITH THEM TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN READINGS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND
IN THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING AND LIMIT SOME OF THE EARLY SUN. UPPER
50S/LOWER60S WEST LOW/MID 60S EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE NORTH...THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS BACK
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEEPING IT WET THIS PERIOD AS WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE
EAST COAT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WITH MODEST RAINFALL WORKING ACROSS
TN/KY AND EDGING INTO WV. WPC SHOWING SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS FAR EAST AS OUR SE WV COUNTIES...WHICH WILL COVER TUE
INTO WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE LINGER INTO
MIDWEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING ALONG IT.
STILL FAVORING OUR NRN AND WRN CWA WITH HIGHER POPS TUE-TUE NIGHT
THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. VARIATIONS EXISTS
IN THE MODEL QPF FIELDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR SE COUNTIES TO DRY
OUT TUE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF WINTER WX...THE MODELS ALL FAVOR MAINLY
RAIN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MTNS OF NE GREENBRIER INTO BATH COUNTY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED.
THE FRONT BISECTS CWA WEDNESDAY WITH MAIN BELT OF RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FEW
AREAS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S MTNS TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE
RAIN WILL GO MILD IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
WEST...WITH HIGHS FROM 50 TO 55 MTNS/ROA...TO AROUND 60 SOUTHSIDE
VA...NW NC PIEDMONT.
STAYING MILD TUESDAY AS FLOW VEERS SW THEN WEST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND POTENTIAL BUST DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AND
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS AND
SUPERBLEND. THE GFS SHOWING HIGH 67 IN ROANOKE...WHILE ECMWF HAS
59...THINKING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPS...BUT STILL MILD
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
GOING TO STAY WETTER THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE 12Z ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS TROUGHY AS
THE 12Z GFS THATS SHOWING A COLDER UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF BY NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS OUR AREA WILL STAY IN A FAVORABLE SW FLOW
ALOFT WHILE AT THE SFC A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH THURSDAY
WHICH TAKES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
OVERRUNNING LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHANCE OF RAIN.
MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA PRODUCING AN COOL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE
WEDGE...THOUGH OVER FAR SW VA 50S ARE LIKELY THU-FRI WITH MORE OF SE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND DESPITE RAIN.
THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN COMES FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS FROM THE
GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO KY. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE KY/WV AREA WITH MODERATE RAIN WORKING INTO OUR MTNS WITH
LOWER QPF EAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE TIMING OF THIS WILL FAVOR OVERRUNNING INTO SATURDAY. WILL SEE
WANING OF RAIN SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT WITH DRY SLOT WORKING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT AT OR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THU-FRI IN
THE WEDGE AND AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FAR SW...WITH AROUND
NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE A SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH...A
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH LARGE AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
IS VERY DRY THANKS TO RECENT ARCTIC INTRUSION. RADAR SHOWING SOME
VERY LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S...PCPN IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING
THE GROUND. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF
THIS TO REACH THE TAF SITES. GENERALLY BKN-OVC DECKS AOA100
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...MAY SEE SOME DECREASE
IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AFT 00Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OFF SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. CLOUD LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TOWARD 035-050 TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...BUT STILL VFR AT THAT
POINT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...THUS VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. WINDS
CHAOTIC AND LIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT WNW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MOST
AREAS...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFT 00Z.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUB-VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND THEN PERSIST
MOST AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS AN AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE PIVOTS NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SLOWLY RETURN NORTH INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
614 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY AREN/T
FALLING OFF SO THIS FOG SCENARIO MAY PLAY OUT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE STAYING IN THE UPPER 30 TO
AROUND 40...AND WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WE COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER
SOME MORNING FOG...WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGH INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW POINTS WILL EDGE INTO
THE MID 40S OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA WHILE DRIER
AIR HOLDS OVER CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN . THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD
CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN MOST OF THE SNOW COVER
WILL BE GONE BY THEN. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING TO AROUND 27 PERCENT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WON/T BE
ALL THAT STRONG OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY IN THE 8 TO 12 MPH
RANGE. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AS
925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND +8C TO +12C RANGE BY
FRIDAY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. PLAN ON HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 60S. A COOL SHOT PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AGAIN STILL
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY
SUNDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IT LOOKS
TO BE A RATHER BREEZY DAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED. ALSO...THE CURRENT DEW POINT FORECAST COULD BE TOO HIGH
GIVEN THE DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE LOWER 20S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER WITH THE FRONT AND THIS COULD LIMIT HOW DRY CONDITIONS WOULD
GET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN IOWA WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS BEHIND
THE FRONT DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S BACK ACROSS MINNESOTA BUT
WITH THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER
THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THE 10.18Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE THIS DRIER AIR
COMING IN AND WITH THE MOISTURE LOADING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE RECENT SNOW MELT...IT WOULD SUGGEST SOME FOG WOULD FORM WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...THE 10.21Z RAP DOES BRING IN THE
DRY AIR WITH NO SUGGESTIONS OF ANY FOG FORMING. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUNCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR FOG MAY WORSEN TO LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* LIFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY MAY COME CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
* LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CIGS. ORD AND MDW APPEAR
TO BE THE ONLY TERMINALS WHO ARE AVOIDING THE BRUNT OF THE LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINKING THE BEST WINDOW FOR LOWER CIGS AT ORD AND MDW
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NW WINDS...SO HAVE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING AND WE MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WITH AT LEAST 9 KT LIKELY. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTN AND BECOME EAST AT LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LIFR VSBY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY AND CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN STAYING
BELOW 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE LAKE CONTINUES WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS THE HIGH THAT PASSES OVER
US TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS
TOMORROW. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WITH FOG DISSIPATING THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A LOW SATURDAY WITH
MAX GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE LOW. HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT FOR NOW BUT
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VLIFR visibility in fog is predominant from KTAZ-KCMI-KVYS eastward
this evening, with pockets of MVFR/IFR developing to the west.
Areas of dense fog expected to expand somewhat overnight, while
remainder of the area gradually develops more widespread MVFR/IFR
visibilities. HRRR model has been largely on track with areas of
fog formation this evening, therefore TAFs closely follow HRRR
progs. A frontal boundary will push across the area from the north
from around 12-18Z bringing drier N-NE winds causing fog to
dissipate. VFR conditions and light NE winds expected at all TAF
sites from 15-17Z through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ031-037-
038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...725 PM CDT
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
OBSERVATIONS LENDING PLENTY OF CONFIDENCE TOWARD DENSE FOG FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...INCLUDING EVEN ZERO VISIBILITY
FOR PART IF NOT MUCH OF THE AREA AT TIMES. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON HOW LONG LASTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN AT LEAST NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME SLICK CONDITIONS ON
AREA ROADWAYS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAD SHRUNK TO A SMALL AREA OF
NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS NOW STARTED
RE-EXPANSION AFTER SUNDOWN. AN IDEAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP FOR FOG
WITH SNOW MELT AND SUBLIMATION ADDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ABOVE THE FOG/STRATUS LAYER. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW
RAPID EXPANSION WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY
OBSERVATIONS NOW AS FAR EAST AS AURORA...MORRIS...AND DUPAGE. IN
FACT...AS SOME OF THIS FOG EXPANDS IT MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A
RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY...SIMILAR TO ADVECTION FOG OVER SNOW
MELT...GIVEN THE RAPID LOCAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THIS COULD BE
QUITE SURPRISING TO MOTORISTS AND WILL STRESS IN GRAPHICAL
NOWCASTS.
WITH ROCHELLE AND DEKALB HAVING DROPPED THREE DEGREES THE PAST
HOUR TO 33 DEGREES...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS IF NOT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW SOME FREEZING FOG. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THIS IS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH HAS THE MOST REMAINING SNOW
COVER TO HELP ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER.
THE WIND MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING THAT
TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT AT ALL LOOKING AT DEW POINTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MORE LIKELY AND POTENTIALLY MORE OF A FORECAST PROBLEM
IS THAT WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION...BUT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE WITH VISIBILITY OUTPUT DOES INDICATE FOG STILL PRESENT.
IN ADDITION...LAKE FRONT AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO BE REPLENISHED WITH
COOLER MOIST AIR AND KEEP FOG LONGER INTO THE MORNING. HAVE JUST
GONE WITH A 9 AM END TIME TO THE ADVISORY AREAWIDE...BUT DO
MENTION FOG LONGER IN THE FORECAST IN LAKE FRONT AREAS FOR NOW.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
341 PM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE THE FOG/STRATUS TRENDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SECONDARY CONCERNS ARE MILD
TEMPERATURES...LAKE COOLING...AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEST-EAST
ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
MOVED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS HAS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN TO
THE FURTHEST SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...NORTHERN SECTIONS HAD
SEEN DENSE FOG DEVELOP SINCE LAST EVENING IN WEAK WIND FIELD
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
ACROSS COLD GROUND AND LINGERING SNOWPACK. DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE BEEN ERODING FROM THE EDGES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR RETAINING LOW
VISIBILITIES IN FOG. CONCERN IS THAT AREA OF FOG WILL FILL BACK IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN SATURATED CONDITIONS LOWEST SEVERAL
HUNDRED FEET. IN ADDITION...WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
SOME WEAK MOIST ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA UNTIL
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUCH AS THE NARRE...SREF AND HOP-WRF ALL
DEPICT HIGH PROBABILITY OF DETERIORATING VISIBILITY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH ALSO LOOKS TO BE AT SOME RISK FOR DENSE FOG...WITH
HIGHER CLOUDS FROM UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM SOME EARLIER RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED
AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL ISSUE
SPS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. FEEL PART OF AREA WILL LIKELY
END UP IN NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR BEST LOCATION/TIMING DETAILS.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS JAMES BAY ONTARIO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WAS TRAILING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. AREA WILL ONLY BE GRAZED BY COOLER
AIR...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PROVIDING
LAKE COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING AREAS WITHIN SEVERAL
MILES OF THE LAKE IN THE 40S OR EVEN SOME UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG
THE SHORE...WHILE LOCATIONS WELL WEST/SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW-MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHWEST. OF
COURSE THE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS...AND HOW QUICKLY IT ERODES WITH
NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW EFFECTIVE WE WILL BE
AT ACHIEVING THESE MILD TEMPS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
CLEARING LOOKS TO BE A DECENT BET. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE STRONGEST LAKE COOLING TO THE
IMMEDIATE ILLINOIS SHORE AND NORTH SHORE SUBURBS.
UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS TO FAVOR A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS REALLY BEGINS TO PULL GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH THE
BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND WELL TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. BY
THE TIME DEEPER MOISTURE REACHES OUR AREA...LOW LEVEL WINDS AT
925-850 MB ARE ALREADY VEERING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SHUNT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST.
VARIOUS GUIDANCE DOES BRING RAIN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WRF-NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS BRING SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...BUT
PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH LOOK OF THE ECMWF/SREF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH HIGHEST (LIKELY) POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES UP TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE (AFTER 3 AM) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. NICE TO HAVE A SYSTEM WHERE ALL THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING!
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
341 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH CANADA. THUS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FAIRLY
STOUT SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PUSH OF
WARMER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND CANADA. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MAY PRODUCE THE FIRST 60+ TEMPERATURE FOR THE CWA BY
MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS APPEARS SHORT LIVED...AS STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW PLOWS SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THIS SCENARIO AT THIS DISTANCE.
RATZER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH
PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE
WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER
ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR FOG MAY WORSEN TO LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* LIFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY MAY COME CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.
* LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CIGS. ORD AND MDW APPEAR
TO BE THE ONLY TERMINALS WHO ARE AVOIDING THE BRUNT OF THE LIFR
CONDITIONS. THINKING THE BEST WINDOW FOR LOWER CIGS AT ORD AND MDW
WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH NW WINDS...SO HAVE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING AND WE MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE 10 KT THRESHOLD WITH AT LEAST 9 KT LIKELY. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS AFTN AND BECOME EAST AT LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LIFR VSBY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY AND CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN STAYING
BELOW 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
156 PM CDT
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS JAMES
BAY. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER LAKE WATER HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE LAKE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
MAY HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE FOG AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK FLOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1153 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
Areas of dense fog have formed this evening from around
Taylorville to Champaign and back northwestward toward La Salle. A
combination of low level moisture left behind from rainfall from
earlier today and from recent snow melt, along with light winds,
and clearing skies have brought several ingredients for fog
development. To the west of this area, little or no rain fell
earlier today, and light southwest winds have developed in
advance of a weak frontal boundary approaching from the north. As
a result, conditions are not as favorable and have seen little fog
development so far. Have issued a dense fog advisory for
approximately the southeast half of the central IL forecast area
for tonight, but will hold off elsewhere at this time. Dry north
to northeast winds once the front crosses into central IL along
with daytime heating mid- morning should dissipate fog early
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
19z/2pm water vapor imagery continues to show a channel of deep
moisture flowing northward from the western Gulf of Mexico into the
Ohio River Valley. This moisture has been interacting with low
pressure over western Kentucky to produce widespread rain from the
Deep South northward into Illinois and Indiana. An upper-level
short-wave currently passing through central Illinois has given the
rain band a solid push eastward, with latest radar mosaic showing
most of the precip now along/east of the Wabash River. This trend
will continue over the next couple of hours, resulting in dry
conditions across the entire KILX CWA by 00z. Think NAM may be a
bit too fast with its eastward progression of clearing across the
area tonight, as satellite imagery still shows a northward push to
the clouds from Louisiana and Arkansas. As a result, will slow the
projected clearing, resulting in cloudy skies along/south of I-70
until dawn Wednesday. With clearing skies, light winds, and plenty
of low-level moisture left behind by the rainfall today, fog will
develop tonight. Locally dense fog will be possible, especially
across locations that picked up rainfall and clear the earliest.
Based on cloud trends, think the area most primed for potentially
dense fog will be between the Illinois River and I-70. Will mention
patchy dense fog in the forecast, but will hold off on a Dense Fog
Advisory until trends become more evident this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
Trof over the central US will weaken tomorrow, allowing brief
ridging to move through the area. This will allow a brief period of
dry weather for tomorrow and tomorrow night. This ridging will slide
east beginning tomorrow and continue to move east through Thursday.
This will enable a weather system developing in the southern parts
of the Miss valley to move north into the central Miss valley and
bring pcpn to the the area. This pcpn should being in southeastern
IL Thursday evening and then spread northward through the night and
then over the whole area on Friday. The models differ on the timing
of the pcpn moving into the area, with the NAM being the quickest.
Have followed the other slower models, thinking the NAM-WRF is too
fast. The slower models also linger the pcpn longer, not ending it
until late Friday night. The ECMWF is the quickest to do this,
followed by the Canadian and then lastly, the GFS. Beyond this
system, high pressure will build into the area for the weekend and
the beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected through this
period. Even a dry front will move through the area Monday night.
Temps should remain warm through the period and be above normal for
early March, into early next week. Behind the dry front Monday
night, temps will cool.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VLIFR visibility in fog is predominant from KTAZ-KCMI-KVYS eastward
this evening, with pockets of MVFR/IFR developing to the west.
Areas of dense fog expected to expand somewhat overnight, while
remainder of the area gradually develops more widespread MVFR/IFR
visibilities. HRRR model has been largely on track with areas of
fog formation this evening, therefore TAFs closely follow HRRR
progs. A frontal boundary will push across the area from the north
from around 12-18Z bringing drier N-NE winds causing fog to
dissipate. VFR conditions and light NE winds expected at all TAF
sites from 15-17Z through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ045-046-
055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ044-052>054-
061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER...
HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW WILL
COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
LIFR CONDS IN DENSE FOG TO CONT NR TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH MID
MORNING BFR MID MARCH SUN BEGINS TO WORK ITS MAGIC. WILL HWVR NEED
TO REACCESS W/12Z FCST ISSUANCE AS SATURATED MSTR DEPTH PER UPSTREAM
AMDAR SOUNDINGS QUITE SIG SUGGESTING BURNOFF WILL COMMENCE LTR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
257 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO GET INTERESTING DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BECOMES
VERY LARGE NOT ONLY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT BUT ALSO
IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AS A RESULT MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THEY
ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST.
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOLER AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN. AS SHOWN YESTERDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS DO DIFFER SOME AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF BROUGHT IN A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. GFS/CANADIAN
SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE WHERE THE 12Z
ECMWF BROUGHT THROUGH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND HAS THE SURFACE
WINDS MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL DOWNSLOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP AND HAS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS. IF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WORK OUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
ON MONDAY IS WHEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD GET RATHER LARGE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOW A
RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
BLAST A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE CANADIAN IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BRINGING A
FRONT THROUGH.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COOLER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FASTER WITH THE
FRONT THAN THE GFS. THERE IS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. KEPT WHAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GAVE ME BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG TEMPERATURE ERROR IS HIGH.
ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SWITCH CAMPS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURES. AGAIN KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME BUT IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A LOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
17Z BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 22Z. BOTH TERMINALS LOSE THE GUSTS AFTER 23Z WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS MOSTLY INTACT...EVEN AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA FORMING A CUTOFF LOW SETTLING OVER TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO TO SEE PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT. BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AIDING IN FOCUSING LIMITED QPF POTENTIAL IN FAR WESTERN CWA ZONES.
OVERALL HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60-70F...WHICH WILL BE 5-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY
AND COOLEST ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE WRAPPING IN COOLER
AIR BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER AREA...AND NEXT TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
17Z BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH 22Z. BOTH TERMINALS LOSE THE GUSTS AFTER 23Z WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS NOW LIFTED NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS NOTED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. UPPER MI IS CLOUD FREE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS GENERATING AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND AND
SRN MANITOBA. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD REACH INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INCREASING IN CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-UPPER RDG FM THE ROCKIES.
TODAY...ANY OF THE MID CLOUDS THAT DRIFT IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH AS WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SFC RDG AXIS AND
ALSO ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S
CNTRL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S PERHAPS EVEN
APPROACHING 50F IN A FEW SPOTS WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH EVEN COOLER
READINGS (MID 30S) ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HIGH RES
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE ON MAX TEMPS
SO SIDED WITH ITS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO BEST CAPTURE THE
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND
ERN LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WL STAY WARMER (MID TO UPPER
20S) DUE TO QUICKER ADVANCE OF CLOUDS AND TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT
AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW LEADING TO INCREASED MIXING FM S-SE WINDS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER MI STAYING DRY WITH WAA PCPN ASSOC WITH PLAINS LOW
GENERALLY STAYING NORTH INTO ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO...JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER
JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO -4C TO -6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 30 ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WED...ANY LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXEPCT DRIER AND COOLDER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NW WINDS
BOOSTED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S CNTRL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO...JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER
JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO -4C TO -6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 30 ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WED...ANY LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXEPCT DRIER AND COOLDER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NW WINDS
BOOSTED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S CNTRL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU-NEXT TUESDAY
AS W-NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
IN THE 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN ON BOTH OF THOSE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
THE CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING RAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGARDS OF PHASING
OF THE NRN SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
MAINTAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND AS SUCH MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST
FASTER. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST MORE PHASING AND AS SUCH
ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE GEM/UKMET. AS SUCH...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. REGARDLESS...THE BIG
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT RISE
TO ABOVE +10C SO SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL
YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Have expanded the dense fog advisory to included southeast
Missouri while also adding the mention of locally dense fog to
Missouri counties of the St. Louis metro area. Observations
between 10 and 11 pm indicate fog development continues to expand
west and southwest from Illinois, especially into southeast Missouri
where the the stratus from earlier today has recently cleared
allowing temperatures to fall to near the current dew points and
winds are nearly calm.
Glass
Issued at 937 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Fog already forming over parts of southwest IL early this evening
and this coverage is expected to expand as we head into the
overnight hours with ripe antecedent conditions for fog in this
region.
A lot of this came about from thick low cloud that persisted thru
the day today in this area and has only recently cleared out in
the past few hours, leaving behind small dewpoint depressions from
the outset, still wet ground from recently melted snow cover, and
light winds forecast thanks to a surface ridge axis stretched over
the area. Crossover temps calculated from this afternoon are
easily attainable and we expect forecast min temps to be several
degrees below the crossover values in this region.
As a result, and in an attempt to stay a step ahead of it, went
with a Dense Fog Advisory for much of southwest IL, stopping just
short of STL city, and this follows the outline of the HRRR VSBY
forecast pretty closely.
Elsewhere, look for clear skies overnight with more patchy fog
coverage, although areas in southeast MO and parts of STL metro
may be candidates for the expansion of the Advisory overnight but
will wait for more evidence before doing so. Min temps from the
mid 30s to the lower 40s are expected.
A quick peak at tomorrow (Wednesday), shows plenty of sunshine
after the fog dissipates, but a weak frontal boundary will have
already dropped thru northern MO and central IL by mid-morning and
will push thru the remainder of the CWA by early afternoon.
Effects on temps will be minimal for most areas, and in fact, we
are looking at higher max temps than persistence for most. The
exception will be in northeast MO and west-central IL where
anticipated CAA will be stronger thanks to more persistent
stubborn fog and its associated colder temps in a NE wind regime.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Light rain and drizzle has shifted east of the forecast area late
this afternoon as weak surface low over western KY continues to move
northeastward. The sky will continue to clear from northwest to
southeast through the night with the moisture profile becoming more
shallow. The clearing sky, light surface winds, only a gradual and
relatively slight drop in surface dew points, and wet ground due to
recent rain along with snow melt in some areas will lead to the
development of fog later tonight. The lows tonight will still be
fairly mild and slightly above normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
A surface ridge will move through the region on Wednesday. After
the fog lifts tomorrow morning, little if any cloudiness will lead
to above normal highs in the 60s. Rain will spread back northward
into our forecast area Thursday afternoon and night as a southerly
low level jet brings low level warm air advection and low level
moisture back northward into our area, and a surface low will move
northward from the Gulf Coast. The NAM is still the quickest in
bringing rain northward into the area. For now followed closer to
the slower progression of the rain into our area for Thursday and
Thursday night of the GFS and ECMWF models. There are also some
model differences with the track of the upper level low moving into
our area from the Plains and the surface low track, but it appears
that rain should move through southeast MO and southwest IL by
Thursday evening, then into most of the rest of the forecast area by
late Thursday night. Rain will continue on Friday as the surface
low moves northeastward through AR and southeast MO. Light rain may
linger Friday night until the upper level trough moves east of the
area. Only slightly cooler air is expected for Saturday as an upper
level trough moves through the Great Lakes region and a surface
ridge builds into the area. Warmer temperatures are expected for
Sunday and Monday as the surface wind becomes southerly as the
surface ridge shifts east of our area, and as upper level heights
rise over the central US. The ECMWF brings a cold front southward
through our area Monday afternoon and evening, while the GFS is a
little slower bringing it through Monday night. Neither model
generates any precipitation associated with this front, but does
bring colder air into the region behind the front for Tuesday.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015
Fog development is occuring a tad ahead of schedule across metro
St. Louis and into Illinois and both KCPS and KSUS are already reporting
VLIFR flight conditions with dense fog and visibilities of 1/4SM.
These conditions will persist overnight while fog development
continues to the west across Missouri. Temp/dew point spreads are
currently a bit greater and there is a little wind at both KCOU or
KUIN, thus the current expectation is the visibility won`t drop
lower than IFR. The fog should dissipate 14-16z with VFR flight
conditions dominating thereafter.
Specifics for KSTL:
The visibility dropped a bit earlier than expected and should
continue to slowly decrease overnight. Given the current temp/dew
point spread I am inclined to believe that the visibility should
only get down to around 1SM/the IFR flight category. The fog should
dissipate around 15z with VFR flight conditions dominating
thereafter.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Iron
MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Bond IL-Clinton
IL-Fayette IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
229 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
UPPER RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWED DEEP MIXING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MIXING WILL COMBINE
WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PREFRONTAL AIRMASS TO BRING VERY WARM
CONDITIONS...DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN A
FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDINGS. KBIL WILL HAVE A NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AND KMLS WILL LIKELY TIE OR BREAK A RECORD
HIGH. LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER KLVM AND
BIG TIMBER. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU...AND WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO THE GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES. KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SPREAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THU. THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPING AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE DATA DID NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN A TENTH /0.10/ WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL NOT BE VERY
COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THU.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
A SOLID RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES RACING THROUGH CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE INTO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH WETTER/COOLER THAN
THE GFS /AS WELL AS QUICKER/ AND COULD RESULT IN SOME WET
SNOWFALL AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INTO
EARLY MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE PROGGS INDICATE A PROBABLE REBOUND
AFTER THIS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
INVADES THE ROCKIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDWEEK. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF
AT DAY 6 THROUGH 8 TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST VERY MUCH. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 043/065 037/064 038/071 047/072 039/051 029/056
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
LVM 067 044/061 037/063 039/067 047/069 041/053 029/056
0/N 53/W 20/U 00/B 01/N 44/W 11/B
HDN 074 040/067 035/066 035/073 043/074 038/055 027/059
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
MLS 073 040/065 037/064 033/071 045/072 038/051 027/055
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 10/U
4BQ 072 037/065 034/064 033/071 040/073 037/052 026/057
0/U 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/B
BHK 070 036/062 033/060 032/068 042/070 036/047 024/052
0/U 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/U
SHR 068 037/062 035/061 032/069 040/071 039/051 025/054
0/U 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 33/W 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
FG HAS ALREADY FORMED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK...AROUND KADM/KDUA...AND
THERE ARE HINTS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W...TO NEAR KLAW/KSPS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST RISK FOR LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN
S OK/N TX...SO HAVE RETAINED THE FG FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
N-CENTRAL OK WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SCATTERED BR IN THE KPNC/KEND AREA. FG SHOULD BE AT ITS
DENSEST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE IN A
PATCHWORK...AS IT USUALLY DOES. BY 18Z...ALL THE FG/BR SHOULD BE
GONE...LEAVING GENERALLY SKC...GOOD VISIBILITIES...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE ARE TO REMOVE THE EVENING CLOUDS AND
HIT FOG A LITTLE STRONGER. THE OVERCAST THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY HAS MOVED NORTHEAST AND CLEARED ALL BUT A FEW
ACRES OF SOUTHEAST BRYAN COUNTY. RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ARDMORE
MUNICIPAL NEAR GENE AUTRY HAS JUST GONE TO ZERO VISIBILITY AND
ATOKA JUST CAME DOWN TO 3/4. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THESE LOW VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH A DAMP GROUND...LIGHT WINDS...AND A CLEAR SKY OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD BR...AND A FEW AREAS OF FG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FG IS MOST LIKELY NEAR AND SE OF KSPS TO KLAW TO
KSRE. PARTICULARLY DENSE FG IS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KADM.
ALTHOUGH BR/FG IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SEVERAL MODELS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH TYPICAL OCCURRENCES AFTER
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS IN LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. ASSUMING FG
DOES FORM...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND WE
EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY...THANKS TO A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MUNDANE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...A FEW COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT COOL OFF. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
MODELS DIVERGE THAT FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 71 44 69 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 41 72 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 74 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 73 41 70 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 44 69 46 66 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
924 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY VIRGA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
NAM TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH ARE VERIFYING
WELL WITH OBSERVED CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY AROUND
10K TO 12K FT MSL. THE 00Z NAM AND SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z
GFS HAVE ARRIVED AND SUPPORT THE FORECAST TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST SIDE BEGINNING AROUND 11 PM WITH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEEKEND WEATHER.
THE NEWLY ARRIVED GFS DATA HAS TRENDED WETTER FOR OUR AREA WITH
WEST SIDE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. INLAND, EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-16Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. KRBG, KMFR AND KLMT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 0335 PM PDT TUESDAY 10 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS, DUE TO WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. INITIALLY SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN WIND SEAS WILL
MIX WITH BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL AND MAY BECOME VERY STEEP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 13 FT AT
AROUND 9 SECONDS. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH GALES FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECOND WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT...BUT SOME RUNS INDICATE WINDS REACHING
NEAR GALE FORCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FRONT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE EUREKA RADAR ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS, BUT
IT`S LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS,
THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AT THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE CASCADES WITH 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS, BUT REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 6500 AND
7000 FEET TONIGHT, THEREFORE ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CRATER
LAKE AND ON TOP OF MOUNT ASHLAND.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -20 AND -22 C
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE BASED AND 850 MB LIFTED INDICES IN
THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
IN PARTS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OUT THERE.
THEREFORE WE`LL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 6500, BUT
IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO 6000 FEET IN AREAS
THAT GET HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOST SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AND WE`LL
HAVE A RETURN TO DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT..THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR SATURDAY LEAVING HIGHER POPS MAINLY COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOOL STILL SHOWING
70% CHC OF IVT EXCEEDING 500. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
RAIN FOR SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF KEEP SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE NW. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
DW/BTL/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z. WRN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
FETCH CONNECTION PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU 11/18Z...BUT THEN
SHIFT SLIGHT EWD THRU 12/06Z. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ERN HALF OF MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z BNA/CSV...
WITH FLUCTUATING MAINLY MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS. AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS NW PORTIONS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IMPACTS CKV...
BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE. ALSO EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO IFR CEILINGS BNA
11/08Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 11/18Z...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. DESPITE THIS SHIFT EWD...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST TO SUPPORT MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUATIONS BNA/CKV AND
IFR CSV THRU 12/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE DEFINITIVE MOISTURE DEPTH GRADIENT IS BECOMING
MORE APPARENT AS NW AREAS ARE SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS JUST PUSHED ACROSS THE CKV AND BWG
AREAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
PLATEAU AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1F AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOOKS LIKE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
ALSO...WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
WILL ONLY CARRY 30 AND 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
850 MB TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND ENHANCE OUR LOW LEVEL LIFT. LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH MOISTURE
FILLING IN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BY 06Z. FAR NW AREAS MAY
NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY ACROSS
NRN AL OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHEN THIS MOISTURE MEETS UP WITH THE
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE RADAR SHOULD FILL IN NICELY.
SO...CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SE
HALF AND THEN A LIKELY AREA JUST NW OF THERE...FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
OTW...LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S FOR LOWS
ACROSS THE NW AS SOME CAA TAKES PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR NOW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 11/24Z. WRN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION FETCH
CONNECTION PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU 11/24Z...BUT WITH
A SLIGHT SHIFT EWD AS PERIOD TIME PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 11/18Z
BNA/CKV. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE AND
POTENTIALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z CKV...ALTHOUGH IFR FOG
INDUCED VSBYS ANTICIPATED. ALSO EXPECT A PROGRESSION TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY FROM 11/03Z-11/18Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 11/18Z AS BULK OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EWD.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SLUG OF
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE GULF INTO LA/MS...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW LOW CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES
BUT CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WAA HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S/50S.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL WIN OUT
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG WAA COMBINED
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LI VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LATEST WPC QPF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SHOW
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. ASOS LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED 0.50 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
ABOUT HALF WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL/WPC QPF SHOWED.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOOKING AT 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND MAY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR
ESF.
BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS
INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS IT LINGERS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING IT
EASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THINGS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH AND DRY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. KAUS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME TEMPO IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-16Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO KSAT/KSSF DURING THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT TO KDRT IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WE/LL
CONTINUE A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12/06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
PRETTY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING A BIT FASTER
THAN TRENDED IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. SO ADJUSTED FOR THAT. RE-
EVALUATED FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RANGING
FROM 3-10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY STAYING QUITE DRY. THE OBS ARE HINTING AT A PRETTY ISOLATED
FOG SET UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
POCKETS OF SURFACE MOISTURE SO KEPT THE AREA WIDE PATCHY FOG
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
TB3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMER READINGS
WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRODUCTION OF GROUND FOG. THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW FOG THAT WOULD BE MORE DENSE. WILL KEEP JUST PATCHY FOG
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODELS HAVE NOT JUMPED ON BOARD YET. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT-TERM
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MENTION 20
POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...OUT OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF BY
SATURDAY. THE MAIN PARENT TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES PERSISTENT TO WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE CUT OFF LOW TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST...THUS IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST 20 POPS TUESDAY UNTIL THERE IS MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 51 72 50 74 / 10 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 51 71 48 73 / 10 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 51 73 49 74 / 10 10 10 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 49 70 47 72 / - - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 48 72 50 76 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 50 70 48 73 / - 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 49 73 48 74 / - 10 - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 51 72 49 74 / 10 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 50 71 50 73 / 10 20 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 51 73 49 74 / - 10 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 51 73 50 74 / 10 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AS THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...
A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
BETTER MOISTURE CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING
AROUND 9Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND VIS WILL DETERIORATE WITH
ANY MODERATE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS. THE CIGS LIFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MOVES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR THE RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY INCREASING NORTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DECOUPLE
IN THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A
MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT AND MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE WE
INITIALLY HAD BELOW 10 PERCENT POPS. EVEN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING WITH A THIN LAYER DRY AIR
RESIDING IN THE MID LAYERS AND A PERSISTENT HRRR MODEL SHOWING
MUCH OF THE RAIN DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID AND UPPER
VALLEY THOUGHT A 20 PERCENT FOR THE EVENING SHOULD COVER THIS
PATCH OF RAIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR AROUND 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IS
WHAT WE EXPECT AT THIS TIME. AS THE EARLIER FORECAST HAS STATED
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER BET OF RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY WHERE A DEEPER
LAYER OF MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED AFTER DATA
ARRIVES WITH THE 00Z BALLOON LAUNCH. ZONES AND POINT AND CLICK
UPDATED SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS TEXAS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO FORM TO
THE SOUTHWEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE
CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS AND MAINLY CAMERON COUNTY TOMORROW...SO
HAVE LIMITED POP TOMORROW TO RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE CURRENT
WAVE EJECTS TO THE NORTH LATER TOMORROW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE FURTHER INTO OUR AREA...WITH MINIMAL POP
CHANCE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SERIES OF 500 MB TROUGHS OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER STATES AND
INTO WESTERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 500 MB LOW BECOMES
CUT OFF BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE POOL
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...HOLDING SEAS AROUND 4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE REMAINED MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
FOR METRO SITES SOUTHWARD AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY
LOWERING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOW 50S AND THINK MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH THIS RANGE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA BUT LIKELY
JUST KEEP LOW CEILINGS. OVERALL FORECAST IS LOOKING ON TRACK SO
WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE STILL SHOWING CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL
CIGS REMAIN AT MVFR BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP FROM 02-03Z AS
WINDS DECREASE. T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES APART WHICH
SHOULD HELP CEILINGS DECREASE TONIGHT AS RH INCREASES. GFS IS
RATHER PESSIMISTIC AND NAM OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS. HRRR KEEPS CIGS
IFR SO WILL KEEP THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LIFR CIGS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED IF ANY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TO MVFR
LEVELS. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOPING THE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARDS
SW LA BUT MAY GET ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH/
LOCATION/TIMING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EITHER TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A LOT OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT IS HARD TO PREDICT WITH CONFIDENCE WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL END UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND FURTHER EASTWARD FORECAST
CARRIED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. OUR FORECAST WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT INLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST...WE WON`T SEE MUCH RAIN. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS
UP FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE RAIN THAN IS
CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST. HOPEFULLY WE SEE SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
SOON. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 42
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW (N TO NE) TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WED AFT THROUGH THURS A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE
POSITION/TIMING OF THIS LOW. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLN WHICH
IS SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE NAM. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISO TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED
THROUGH THU AM. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT SUPPORTS SCEC WINDS MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WED NIGHT/THU AM. A
PACIFIC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE COAST
SATURDAY BUT NW WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY/CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. 33
CLIMATE...
FOR MARCH 1-9...
CLL HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.3 DEGREES WHICH IS 11.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...CLL HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 4.00 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.17 INCHES).
IAH HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 53.4 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...IAH HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.83 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.41 INCHES).
HOU HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 55.7 DEGREES WHICH IS 5.4 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...HOU HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR MONTHLY
AVERAGE WITH 3.53 INCHES (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.20 INCHES).
GLS HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 54.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 6.2 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FOR RAINFALL...GLS HAS RECORDED 1.60 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
IS 0.56 INCHES BELOW NORMAL (AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.16 INCHES).
42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
SEEING A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFT. THINK ALL SITES
WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR THIS AFT. SHOULD SEE IFR
CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVE. LIFR CEILINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW...OPTED TO STAY IFR AT THIS POINT. MAY SEE
SOME INLAND MVFR BR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS MID-DAY WED.
RAIN CHANCE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST JUST AFTER THE TAF PD.
33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 68 51 69 50 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 65 54 70 52 / 10 10 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 53 62 56 65 55 / 10 20 40 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION AND EXIT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE CROSSING THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING THERE IS STILL SOME MOSTLY LIGHT FOG AROUND
THE AREA BUT IT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING DOWN THE FOG CLEARING PROCESS. THE FORECAST
MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS.
THE RADAR SHOWS ONLY LIGHT ECHOES OVER DELMARVA AND FAR SRN NJ
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER ECHOES UPSTREAM OVER VA AND MD. THE
RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OR TWO OF SHOWERS
UNTIL ABOUT 3 PM FOR SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD SO WE ARE KEEPING
SLIGHT CHC POPS THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRETHS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING NORTH TOWARD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
DECENTLY MILD DAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN NW WITH SOME GUSTS TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A GUSTY NW WIND DEVELOPING TO 20 MPH, EXCEPT
25 - 30 MPH IN THE HILLS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES.
OTHERWISE A NICE LATE WINTER NIGHT.
FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/11 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A NICE AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURE WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.
FRIDAY...HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH A DRY DAY EARLY ACROSS THE AREA.
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. RAIN WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PLAIN RAIN BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.
SATURDAY...THE LOW IS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT HAS TAPPED INTO THE GULF MOISTURE AND DRAWS IT NORTHWARD AND INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PWATS INCREASING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ROUND AN
INCH EXPECTED, THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND. DEFINITELY A
SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SUNDAY...THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY AND WE WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
REGION SUNDAY AND DROPS A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS US, WITH BETTER
CHANCES OFF THE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OVERALL, SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHERWISE WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, POSSIBLY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S, COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.
WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
RESPOND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXCEPT CURRENT
MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG AT RDG/ABE...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY NOON. LIGHT WEST WIND TURNING NW AND GUSTING 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR OR A FEW CIRRUS. NW WIND SHOULD GUST 18-22Z
KT, AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AND THEN DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF KPHL.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DROPPING TO LIFR AT TIMES IN
RAIN AND FOG. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...MVFR EARLY, THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15KT, ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC DELAWARE
WITH WIND BECOMING NW EVERYWHERE AND GUSTING 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG THIN OUT THIS MORNING AS SCT SHOWERS GRADUALLY END.
EXCEPTION...BANDS OF SHOWERS PROBABLY AFFECTING ANZ455 DE ATLC
WATERS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
TONIGHT...NW WIND GUSTING 20 KT EXCEPT PROBABLY 25-30 KT OVER THE
NNJ WATERS WHERE AN SCA APPEARS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY GUST
NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT, .5 TO .9 INCH RAINFALL, AND A
FROZEN OR NEAR FROZEN GROUND, POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING
OCCURRED EARLY TODAY IN PTNS OF SE PA, MAINLY CHESTER COUNTY.
THOSE WATERS ARE NOW RECEDING AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
WE DID HAVE A PROBLEM WITH OUR AREAL FLOOD WARNING OVERNIGHT AND
THATS THE REASONING FOR THE ISSUANCES UNDER SPS.
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS(RVS), TO RAISE AWARENESS, WILL BE UPDATED
SHORTLY FOR THE MILLSTONE AND RANCOCAS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW
TO DUE NORTH BEHIND IT. VSBY IS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL...AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...EXPECTING VSBY TO QUICKLY BECOME VFR THIS MORNING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING WITH SPEEDS AT 10-12
KT THROUGH THE MID AFTN. SPEEDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS TRY TO SUGGEST
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND TO MELT...THINKING ONLY PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM. MAINLY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE LAKE CONTINUES WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS THE HIGH THAT PASSES OVER
US TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS
TOMORROW. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WITH FOG DISSIPATING THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A LOW SATURDAY WITH
MAX GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE LOW. HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT FOR NOW BUT
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 18z/1pm for locations
along and south of I-70, as dense fog remains trapped beneath a
low overcast across that area. Further north and west, the fog has
completely dissipated, so canceled the advisory early. 15z/10am
temperatures have already reached the 50 degree mark where the
sun is shining, well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower
to middle 60s. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Areas of dense fog will impact the central Illinois terminals
into the mid-late morning hours. Then, VFR conditions should
prevail into tonight with minimal cloud cover. Fog development
potential for tonight is there once again, but it is not expected
to be as thick or widespread as this morning. Light winds will
trend northeast this afternoon and easterly tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
914 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN IL WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW
TO DUE NORTH BEHIND IT. VSBY IS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL...AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...EXPECTING VSBY TO QUICKLY BECOME VFR THIS MORNING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING WITH SPEEDS AT 10-12
KT THROUGH THE MID AFTN. SPEEDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS TRY TO SUGGEST
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
AND LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND TO MELT...THINKING ONLY PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM. MAINLY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
ARND 10 KT TOMORROW.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
THE RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OVER THE LAKE CONTINUES WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS THE HIGH THAT PASSES OVER
US TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS
TOMORROW. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WITH FOG DISSIPATING THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A LOW SATURDAY WITH
MAX GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE LOW. HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT FOR NOW BUT
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
751 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Areas of dense fog will impact the central Illinois terminals
into the mid-late morning hours. Then, VFR conditions should
prevail into tonight with minimal cloud cover. Fog development
potential for tonight is there once again, but it is not expected
to be as thick or widespread as this morning. Light winds will
trend northeast this afternoon and easterly tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ031-037-
038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1010 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. EXPECT THE PRESENT WIDESPREAD
FOG COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE PATCHY INTO THE LATER MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO HILLSDALE COUNTY AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS PERSISTING. FOG RELATED ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ALREADY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXPECTING FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT BOTH
TAF SITES...WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. VISIBILITIES AT UPSTREAM SITES BEHIND THE WAVE WERE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER MOST OBSERVATIONS WERE ABOVE
5SM AS OF 14Z. A FEW LINGERED AROUND 1 1/2 TO 2 SM. FOR NOW...KEPT
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THROUGH 15/16Z...THEN STARTED IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
926 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. EXPECT THE PRESENT WIDESPREAD
FOG COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE PATCHY INTO THE LATER MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO HILLSDALE COUNTY AS WELL...WITH
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS PERSISTING. FOG RELATED ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ALREADY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
STILL COUNTING ON LIFR CONDS IN DENSE FOG NR TERM TO MIX OUT MID-LT
MORNING AS MID MARCH SUN BEGINS TO WORK ITS MAGIC. HWVR NR TERM
HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST THE OPPOSITE AND HOLDS IT IN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD W/PRIOR FCST AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER...
HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW WILL
COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
STILL COUNTING ON LIFR CONDS IN DENSE FOG NR TERM TO MIX OUT MID-LT
MORNING AS MID MARCH SUN BEGINS TO WORK ITS MAGIC. HWVR NR TERM
HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST THE OPPOSITE AND HOLDS IT IN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD W/PRIOR FCST AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD THROUGH THIS MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>080.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
506 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO GET INTERESTING DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BECOMES
VERY LARGE NOT ONLY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT BUT ALSO
IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AS A RESULT MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THEY
ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST.
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOLER AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN. AS SHOWN YESTERDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS DO DIFFER SOME AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF BROUGHT IN A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. GFS/CANADIAN
SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE WHERE THE 12Z
ECMWF BROUGHT THROUGH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND HAS THE SURFACE
WINDS MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL DOWNSLOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP AND HAS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS. IF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WORK OUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
ON MONDAY IS WHEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD GET RATHER LARGE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOW A
RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
BLAST A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE CANADIAN IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BRINGING A
FRONT THROUGH.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COOLER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FASTER WITH THE
FRONT THAN THE GFS. THERE IS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. KEPT WHAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GAVE ME BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG TEMPERATURE ERROR IS HIGH.
ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SWITCH CAMPS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURES. AGAIN KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME BUT IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A LOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE KS/CO
STATE LINE. GUSTS TO 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS NOW LIFTED NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS NOTED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. UPPER MI IS CLOUD FREE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS GENERATING AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND AND
SRN MANITOBA. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD REACH INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INCREASING IN CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-UPPER RDG FM THE ROCKIES.
TODAY...ANY OF THE MID CLOUDS THAT DRIFT IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH AS WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SFC RDG AXIS AND
ALSO ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S
CNTRL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S PERHAPS EVEN
APPROACHING 50F IN A FEW SPOTS WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH EVEN COOLER
READINGS (MID 30S) ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HIGH RES
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE ON MAX TEMPS
SO SIDED WITH ITS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO BEST CAPTURE THE
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND
ERN LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WL STAY WARMER (MID TO UPPER
20S) DUE TO QUICKER ADVANCE OF CLOUDS AND TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT
AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW LEADING TO INCREASED MIXING FM S-SE WINDS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER MI STAYING DRY WITH WAA PCPN ASSOC WITH PLAINS LOW
GENERALLY STAYING NORTH INTO ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
913 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED FASTER THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
UPPER RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWED DEEP MIXING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MIXING WILL COMBINE
WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PREFRONTAL AIRMASS TO BRING VERY WARM
CONDITIONS...DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN A
FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN THE LATEST SOUNDINGS. KBIL WILL HAVE A NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AND KMLS WILL LIKELY TIE OR BREAK A RECORD
HIGH. LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER KLVM AND
BIG TIMBER. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU...AND WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO THE GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES. KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SPREAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THU. THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPING AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE DATA DID NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HIGHER THAN A TENTH /0.10/ WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL NOT BE VERY
COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THU.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THU NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
A SOLID RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES RACING THROUGH CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE INTO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH WETTER/COOLER THAN
THE GFS /AS WELL AS QUICKER/ AND COULD RESULT IN SOME WET
SNOWFALL AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INTO
EARLY MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE PROGGS INDICATE A PROBABLE REBOUND
AFTER THIS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
INVADES THE ROCKIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDWEEK. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF
AT DAY 6 THROUGH 8 TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST VERY MUCH. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
TODAY SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...AS MIXING INCREASES
DUE TO AN OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 043/065 037/064 038/071 047/072 039/051 029/056
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
LVM 064 044/061 037/063 039/067 047/069 041/053 029/056
0/N 53/W 20/U 00/B 01/N 44/W 11/B
HDN 071 040/067 035/066 035/073 043/074 038/055 027/059
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 01/N 33/W 10/B
MLS 070 040/065 037/064 033/071 045/072 038/051 027/055
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 10/U
4BQ 069 037/065 034/064 033/071 040/073 037/052 026/057
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/B
BHK 069 036/062 033/060 032/068 042/070 036/047 024/052
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/U
SHR 065 037/062 035/061 032/069 040/071 039/051 025/054
0/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 33/W 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
953 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN OVER
THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO CREATE
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. THE MOIST WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BRIEF...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY...WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0945 AM...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS INTO FAR WESTERN NC. LATEST RAP BRINGS THE FRONT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS CIRCA 22Z. COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAY DIMINISH AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN. HENCE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WAS TO LOWER THEM
SOMEWHAT BY BLENDING IN THE LATEST CONSHORT POPS. THIS STILL GIVES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERATES SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
FIELDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION: AS OF 645 AM...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN/KY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO
DRIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST TN...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. SAID AXIS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EWD LATER THIS MRNG
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE. THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TRANSIENT SHOWERS BEFORE
DAWN...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AND BECOMING FOCUSED MORE EWD
AS THE BOUNDARY ENCROACHES. A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AT LEAST. SOME OF THE BETTER DRAINAGES IN THE
REGION MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF MILE...BUT
THESE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. EXPECTATIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA AS A
BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT. THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS NOT
SPECTACULAR IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN TERMS OF
PCPBL WATER...BEING UPWARDS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE NWS RAPID
CITY PWAT CLIMO CHARTS AT BOTH ATLANTA AND GREENSBORO. IT ALSO
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR MODELS ALL SHOW SBCAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE FRONT TIMED TO BE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER AROUND THEN. MADE A MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE CAPES
SEEMED SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...MOSTLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THUS DEVELOP CELLS DROPPING
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. BLENDED A
BIT OF QPF FROM THESE MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC MODEL CONSENSUS THIS
AFTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. ON ANOTHER NOTE...25-35 KT OF
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORIENTED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IS NOT IN PLAY UNTIL AFTER THE
FROPA...SO DOWNBURST WINDS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MULTIPLE CELLS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOIL/STREAM CAPACITY IS LIKELY PRETTY HIGH
GIVEN RECENT DRY WX...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE COMFORTABLY WARM...5-10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM N TO S BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACRS THE
AREA. HOWEVER MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 15 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DAMMING
LOCATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SRLY FLOW UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THU...BUT WITH THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME LIKELY SHUNTED WELL
WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE MOIST
UPGLIDE AND CAD SETUP...EXPECT MAXES TO BE LIMITED TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON THU...AND THEN UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE HEART OF THE CAD EVENT ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF THU NIGHT
AND FRI SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS TO
DEVELOP...UNLESS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE MOIST THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE UPGLIDE FORCING WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE FRI
NIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW VEERS SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD WEDGE KEEPING A TOE HOLD IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK SAT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE VERY
SLOW TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A TRUE SCOURING MECHANISM
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT WEDGE EROSION OCCURS SAT
AFTN...ENOUGH PIEDMONT INSTABILITY COULD BE UNCOVERED FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN EXTREME ERN/SRN SECTIONS...BUT WILL JUST KEEP A
SCATTERED SHOWER MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE DIGGING TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
DEEPER DRYING ENSUING. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER FROM THE W. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW ON TUE...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIG/VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SINK THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS. A SEASONALLY MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES...SO I
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU LATE
AFTN. POST FROPA DRIER AIR THEN WILL SETTLE IN AND WINDS FLIP TO
NLY. A LOW VFR CIG IS LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR DAYBREAK THU.
ELSEWHERE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACRS THE AREA TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACRS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CIGS IN
SOME PLACES. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TS
MENTION AT THE SC SITES. PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY TS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND RESULTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT
LEAST ISOLATED AREAS SAW IFR VSBY IN TSRA THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POST FROPA AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO
THE REGION...CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPS...BUT WILL OMIT SUCH FROM CURRENT TAF SET. SOME MTN VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE WEEK IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO...WHICH LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE APPRECIABLY SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 90% MED 63% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% MED 68% HIGH 81% MED 76%
KHKY HIGH 86% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 92% MED 66% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 82% MED 65% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
407 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
EOX and EVX radar show numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms,
developing in the western Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama.
18Z objective RAP analysis shows about 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE in
these areas, so thunderstorms will continue to be possible and a few
could produce some gusty winds. K1J0 near Bonifay reported a 34 knot
wind gust with a thunderstorm. Showers and thunderstorms should be
most numerous through 00Z in the western parts of the area, before
models are in agreement with showing a diminishing trend in the
evening. We expect overnight rain to be mostly north and west of the
area. Areas of fog may develop in the late evening or overnight. Low
temperatures will continue to be well above normal.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Starting Thursday, the mean longwave pattern will feature a large
trough covering the CONUS from the west coast to just east of the
Mississippi River. Making up the trough are essentially two +PV
anomalies, one from the northern Rockies through the Great Basin
and on through the central and southern Plains. The leading
anomaly will gradually weaken through Friday night as it moves
north into the Midwest. At the surface, the low pressure system in
the western Gulf will mimic the progression of the upper level
anomaly, gradually weakening and moving north through the
Mississippi Valley. In the immediate Tri-State region, we`ll
remain under the influence of deep layer ridging on the western
periphery of the upper ridge, and the southern side of the surface
ridge.
Synoptics aside, summertime PWAT`s and southeasterly flow will
favor a regime 6 seabreeze setup tomorrow afternoon. In addition
to the early season seabreeze development, a wedge front will be
moving southwest into the Tri-State region on the leading edge of
the aforementioned southward building surface ridge. Thus, expect
a healthy coverage of thunderstorms area-wide tomorrow. In fact,
plenty of instability will join marginal deep layer shear (~25-30kts),
and marginal delta Theta-e values (20-25K) to warrant a threat for
a couple strong to even marginally severe thunderstorms. Damaging
wind gusts would be the primary threat.
Drier air on Friday will lower PWATs and lessen instability,
yielding a lower chance for thunderstorms. Though scattered
showers should still be expected region-wide along the remnant
wedge front and inevitable seabreeze front.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The aforementioned surface low will be moving into the Northeast
on Saturday, with a cold front draped southwest from the Mid-
Atlantic into the Southern Plains. +PVA in the deep southwesterly
flow regime will continue the threat for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday, a
stronger +PV anomaly moving through the Great Lakes region will be
enough to force the front through the local area, drying things
out by Sunday night. A transition to deep layer northwesterly flow
on the leading edge of a central CONUS ridge should keep things
dry through mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
MVFR cigs will improve to VFR late this afternoon with scattered
thunderstorms possible near DHN and ABY. Cigs and vsbys will
likely deteriorate to MVFR-IFR again during the overnight periods.
&&
.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue to subside through the period,
remaining below headline levels into next week.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Moisture levels will remain elevated for the next several days
precluding any chance for red flag conditions. Fog is another good
possibility tonight and Thursday morning, with greatest chances near
the coast. Daytime dispersion indices will be on the low side along
the coast on Thursday.
&&
.Hydrology...
Average rainfall amounts of around an inch, up to two inches in
localized areas across Alabama and Georgia, should be expected
through Sunday. This will likely not have much of an impact on
area rivers.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 62 82 64 79 64 / 10 60 70 30 20
Panama City 63 74 64 71 65 / 20 30 40 40 40
Dothan 63 81 61 73 63 / 40 70 70 50 50
Albany 61 80 59 71 62 / 30 60 60 40 30
Valdosta 62 83 62 80 65 / 20 60 40 40 30
Cross City 64 83 61 83 64 / 10 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 63 71 63 68 63 / 10 20 30 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
501 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT TOMORROW.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT TOMORROW.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a trough of low pressure dropping
southward toward the I-70 corridor. Despite winds turning to the
north behind the boundary, the cooler airmass lags well behind
across the northern part of the state. Current temperatures are
mainly in the 60s, but remain in the middle 50s across the far north
around Galesburg and Lacon. As the trough sinks further southward,
a light NE wind will bring slightly cooler/drier air into the entire
region this evening. The main short-term concern will be the
potential re-development of fog. HRRR has been consistently showing
widespread fog forming across northern/central Indiana this evening,
then spreading W/SW into central Illinois overnight. Several
mitigating factors are in place that will likely prevent the fog
from becoming as widespread and dense as last night, mainly the
drier low-level airmass courtesy of ample mixing this afternoon and
a light E/NE breeze of 5 to 8mph tonight. Have therefore decided to
only mention patchy fog in the forecast, developing along/east of
I-57 by mid-evening, then spreading westward into the Illinois River
Valley after midnight. Am not expecting the fog to significantly
reduce visibilities over a large scale area, so a Dense Fog Advisory
is not needed at this time. Overnight low temperatures will bottom
out in the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Morning upper air data shows deep upper level positive tilt, cut
off, stagnate trough from mid plains into TX panhandle. Moisture
channel satellite loop displays short wave moving onto the northwest
US coast, which is progged to move east northeast inland through
next day and keep southwest trough cut off. Satellite data does show
the vort max in mexico that will track northeast in tropical flow up
the eastern side of trough into the MS valley, bringing moisture and
pcpn into IL.
Models differ a little on the timing and extent of the pcpn making
its way into IL by Thurs night and Friday. Moisture and pcpn chances
delayed for Thurs, and so dropped pops for Thurs afternoon. All 3 of
operational models (NAm, GFS, EUR) are similar in development of
inverted trough from AR into southern IL by 12z Friday. Overrunning
pcpn moves into southern cwa on thurs night, with the main rain
expected during day Friday. During Friday, upper level wave moves
into AR with the trough stationary into southern IL and continued
overrunning lift reaching into all of forecast area. Surface low
then progged to move northeast up mainly OH River to southeast IN by
12z Saturday. So the main pcpn will be Friday and Friday night, with
rain moving out early Saturday. Heaviest possibe pcpn will be mainly
along and southeast of I-70, with possible QPF 1 to 1.5 inches or
more.
Extended period is main quite, with only one other frontal system
forecast to come through on Monday. That should be dry with frontal
passage and the mild weather should continue through midweek, as the
west to northwest upper level flow continues.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Main aviation forecast challenge will be potential fog development
tonight. High-res models suggest widespread fog will form across
Indiana this evening, then will spread slowly westward into
central Illinois overnight. There are several mitigating factors
that will prevent the fog tonight from becoming as widespread or
dense as it was last night. First of all, ample sunshine this
afternoon will help mix out some of the persistent low-level
moisture. Secondly, the pressure gradient in the wake of a passing
cold front will allow E/NE winds of around 5kt to continue through
the night. With these factors in mind, do not think the fog will
become dense tonight. Based on HRRR timing, have introduced 2-3
mile visbys at the terminals starting at 04z at KCMI, then by 07z
further west at KPIA. Any early morning fog will quickly
dissipate, followed by mostly clear conditions through 18z Thu.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
204 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...
332 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG/STRATUS
TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH ONLY SMALL AND SHRINKING PATCHES
SHOWING UP ON 11-3.9U CHANNEL. THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH SOME RFD
ACARS SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AT BEST. THIS SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOT MUCH STRATUS IS EXPECTED
EITHER. A BIT OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SE TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT COULD EXPAND A BIT TODAY AND SPREAD
WEST...BUT GIVEN PRETTY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AM NOT
THINKING MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE A BIG DEAL TODAY.
WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND RESULT IN
WINDS FLIPPING IN OFF THE LAKE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING
IN THE 30 OR POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING 40 ALONG THE LAKEFRONT WITH
50S EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CWA WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE SUNNY SKIES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT AND WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AM CONCERNED
THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORE PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THURS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO PERHAPS NEAR
60 SOUTH...TO BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ILLINOIS
LAKEFRONT.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SPREAD RAIN INTO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN CWA COULD SEE SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY ELEVATED
FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
RAIN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK FRIDAY WITH WARMEST TEMPS
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LESSER...WHILE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SE CWA AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES
SATURDAY...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECT ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REBOUND NICELY...THOUGH PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE COULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
BY MONDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THERMAL PROFILES EASILY SUPPORTING 70F+
ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED 850/925MB TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN
FAR BEHIND THE LEVELS WE SAW BACK DURING THE RECORD SHATTERING
MARCH 2012 HEAT WAVE. LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT
AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOWER 60S...BUT
GIVEN THE 850/925MB CLIMO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS ABOUT 5F ABOVE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SUSPECT THIS COULD BE TOO COOL STILL WITH 70S
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RH BECAUSE
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AND COULD HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY IF 70S ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. A
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE/NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT-TUES WITH A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AS WELL THROUGH THAT
PERIOD.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT TOMORROW.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS DRIVING SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE FACT
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ILLINOIS TONIGHT MAY KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FAIRY SHALLOW AND
MORE PATCHY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...I HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF 6SM BR AND MIFG AT KRFD
AND AND KDPA.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP AROUND 16 KT POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST BCMG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY...SCHC RAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BCMG NW
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1256 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 18z/1pm for locations
along and south of I-70, as dense fog remains trapped beneath a
low overcast across that area. Further north and west, the fog has
completely dissipated, so canceled the advisory early. 15z/10am
temperatures have already reached the 50 degree mark where the
sun is shining, well on their way to afternoon highs in the lower
to middle 60s. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Fairly widespread dense fog has developed across the eastern 2/3 of
the forecast area. The current western edge of the thicker fog
currently exists between the I-55 corridor and the Illinois River
Valley. The dense fog is across areas that had thicker cloud cover
for most of yesterday, as well as some rainfall. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been posted for much of the impacted portion of the
forecast area until later this morning. Main forecast concern for
today is how long the thicker fog will last, and if it will continue
to expand westward before lifting.
While the fog had been expanding through Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours, it has been more steady state for the past couple
of hours. As mentioned above, the areas currently impacted were
pretty cloudy/damp yesterday, so perhaps the dense fog has expanded
as far as it is going to. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest some
further westward development overall, but also a band extending
across Marshall, Stark, and Knox counties. According to the HRRR,
the fog band across our north should already be there, so do not
have too much faith in its depiction of additional western
expansion. However, did lean on the HRRR suggestion that the fog
will linger longer than previously anticipated, extending the Dense
Fog Advisory until 11 AM accordingly. The later sunrise since the
time change last weekend should result in the fog taking about an
hour longer to burn off than we may have anticipated a week or so
ago.
Otherwise, quiet and unseasonably mild weather is expected today
across central and southeast Illinois. A weak back door cold front
will slip down from the north later today which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures across our far north, but still warmer
than normal for mid-March. However, the forecast high temperatures
(mainly lower 60s) will need to be pulled back if the fog holds on
too long into the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Deep trof over the desert SW effectively cutting off the Midwest
from the more northerly stream of colder air and the airmass over
the CONUS is more in line with spring temperatures. Through the
forecast, temperatures mainly above normal. High pressure remains
in place until the end of the week when another wave rotates around
the western trof and a sfc system develops in the southern Plains
and moves up into the Ohio River Valley, spreading rain over much of
the Midwest. NAM has previously been quicker than the GFS and the
ECMWF...but now more of a compromise is taking shape with rain
starting overnight Thursday into Friday. Friday and Friday night
dominated by rain. Saturday dries out and the remains of the
forecast stays dry at this point. Models place the warmest temps
for the forecast on Monday, but hesitate to adjust too much over
guidance as the ECMWF is at least hinting at a small thermal trof
moving in Monday with the cold front a little stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
Main aviation forecast challenge will be potential fog development
tonight. High-res models suggest widespread fog will form across
Indiana this evening, then will spread slowly westward into
central Illinois overnight. There are several mitigating factors
that will prevent the fog tonight from becoming as widespread or
dense as it was last night. First of all, ample sunshine this
afternoon will help mix out some of the persistent low-level
moisture. Secondly, the pressure gradient in the wake of a passing
cold front will allow E/NE winds of around 5kt to continue through
the night. With these factors in mind, do not think the fog will
become dense tonight. Based on HRRR timing, have introduced 2-3
mile visbys at the terminals starting at 04z at KCMI, then by 07z
further west at KPIA. Any early morning fog will quickly
dissipate, followed by mostly clear conditions through 18z Thu.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
148 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. FOG WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE REGION
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE FOG BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY AIR IS QUICKLY SINKING SOUTHWARD AND SCOURING OUT THE DENSE
FOG THAT PERSISTED THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...THOUGH VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE STILL AROUND 1/2 SM-2 SM. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE GRADUALLY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY AIR IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...KSBN IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND
NOON. OTHERWISE...KFWA IS STILL SEEING LIFR CEILINGS BUT
VISIBILITY IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR IS JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITE AS OF
1730Z. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
AT BOTH SITES. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOISTURE FROM
THE MELTING SNOW DO NOT THINK THIS IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. DO NOT
THINK IT WILL BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS MORNING/LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 4SM AROUND 4-5Z AT BOTH
KSBN/KFWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP A LITTLE
BIT LOWER TOWARDS 1SM-2SM...BUT AT THIS TIME DID NOT WANT TO GET
OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1240 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS DRY AIR IS QUICKLY INFILTRATING THE REGION. EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR IN THE SOUTHEAST AS VISIBILITIES OF
AROUND 1/4 MILE PERIST. DRY AIR IS DISSOLVING THE FOG QUICKLY
HOWEVER...ASSISTED BY THE MARCH SUN MIXING THINGS UP. EXPECT
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
NR TERM DILEMMA IS PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AMDAR/POINT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW VIGOROUS LL
THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND SATURATED THANKS TO
CONTD MELTING SNOW. THUS IN ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUBSIDENT
MIXING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MID MARCH SUN TO BURN THINGS OUT.
10 AM ENDING TIME TO CURRENT ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE ATTM BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON NR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
DENSE FOG HOLD THROUGH NOON BFR LIFTING AND RAPIDLY MIXING OUT
THEREAFTER.
OTRWS TEMP FCST DIFFICULT AS PD OF AFTN SUN SHLD COUNTER
CHILLY...FOG PRONE MORNING. HWVR PRIOR NUMBERS IN REFLECTION OF
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL ESP SE HALF UNDERNEATH CONTD HIGH CIRRUS
SHIELD WHICH MAY DELAY BURNOFF EVEN LATER. REGARDLESS NERLY TO ERLY
VEERED FLW THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ADVT MUCH DRIER AIR SWWD AND
SHLD PRECLUDE ANY ADDNL DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
PATCHY FOG MAY START OUT THE PERIOD...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO
SUGGEST THAT LATER WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN TODAY WITH LESS
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR LEFT OVER. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES.
TRENDS OF MODELS HOLDING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NW EXTENT OF PRECIP
SHIELD WARRANTING FURTHER EXPANSION OF LIKELY POPS NW. HELD SHY OF
CAT POPS IN THE SE AREAS BUT IF MODELS HOLD THERE CONSISTENCY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER ESPECIALLY FRI TO FRI EVE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF QPF POTENTIAL MOST MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING BANDING
OF WELL OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS. DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
GIVEN TRENDS BUT STILL RANGING FROM A TENTH FAR NW TO OVER A HALF
INCH SE.
GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY SENDING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONSENSUS OF
OFFICES HAS BEEN TO INCREASE HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION POINTING TOWARDS MID 50S NE TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE 60
SW...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUPER BLEND. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SENDS TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS TO WRAP UP THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
EXPECTING FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT BOTH
TAF SITES...WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. VISIBILITIES AT UPSTREAM SITES BEHIND THE WAVE WERE
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO IMPROVE...HOWEVER MOST OBSERVATIONS WERE ABOVE
5SM AS OF 14Z. A FEW LINGERED AROUND 1 1/2 TO 2 SM. FOR NOW...KEPT
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THROUGH 15/16Z...THEN STARTED IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ009-017-
018-023>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PART OF THIS
TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER OUR CWA WITH AREA OF
DIVERGENCE/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER...WITH STRONGEST WAA POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST. WARM TEMPERATURES IN 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING UPPER 70S IN OUR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY (THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS LOWER). FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY TIMING OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 (WEST) TO UPPER
60S WHERE THERE IS GOOD CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO GET INTERESTING DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE DIFFERENCES. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...BECOMES
VERY LARGE NOT ONLY BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT BUT ALSO
IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AS A RESULT MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
TO WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THEY
ARE SHOWING A DRY FORECAST.
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOLER AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN. AS SHOWN YESTERDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS DO DIFFER SOME AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF BROUGHT IN A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. GFS/CANADIAN
SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE WHERE THE 12Z
ECMWF BROUGHT THROUGH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND HAS THE SURFACE
WINDS MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL DOWNSLOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
JOINED THE GFS/CANADIAN CAMP AND HAS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS. IF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WORK OUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
ON MONDAY IS WHEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD GET RATHER LARGE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOW A
RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
BLAST A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHERE THE CANADIAN IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BRINGING A
FRONT THROUGH.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COOLER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FASTER WITH THE
FRONT THAN THE GFS. THERE IS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. KEPT WHAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GAVE ME BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG TEMPERATURE ERROR IS HIGH.
ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SWITCH CAMPS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DIFFERENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURES. AGAIN KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME BUT IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A LOT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...BUT EXPECTED TO
STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2015
REGARDING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY...LATEST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SUPPORTING RH VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BETTER DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN OUR NW WHERE GUSTS 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WONT REACH THE 3HR
CROSSOVER OF RH/WIND NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT A FEW
HOURS OF RH/WIND AROUND 15%/25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF
RFW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1151 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON POPS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ONLY 20 TO 30 MILES FROM THE LA COAST. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
SHOW THIS CLUSTER MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 80+ PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST LA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WELL REPRESENT THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE. PW OF 1.61 INCHES IS NEAR THE DAILY MAX IN THE
SPC CLIMATOLOGY. THERE IS AN INVERSION AT 910 MB AND THE PROFILE
IS SATURATED FROM 770 TO 600 MB. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
AND PEAK WIND IS 85 KTS AT 240 MB.
KRAUTMANN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
SHORT TERM...
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IS EXTREMELY TRANSITORY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MARINE AREAS. REGARDLESS...THIS CAN CAUSE VIS TO DECREASE
RAPIDLY WITHIN A SHORT DISTANCE. RIVERS LAKES AND SHELF WATERS
WILL HAVE FOG REDUCING VIS TO 1SM OR LESS THIS MORNING. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AS WELL. WILL NEED
TO LOOK AT THINGS FOR A POSSIBLE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS CAUSING RIVERS TO RISE AND PONDING/FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS. A SHORT REPREIVE...SOMEWHAT...TODAY AS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOWERED JUST A BIT AS WE WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS.
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP A BETTER CAP ON THINGS TODAY...ALBEIT WEAK.
WILL STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS THOUGH AND THE TRAINING FEATURES ARE
STILL PREVALENT SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ONSLOUGHT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRAIN
OVERHEAD FROM THE DEEP GULF.
LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES NORTH OUT OF
THE GULF THU MORNING ENHANCING THE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS
WHEN THE BIGGEST ISSUES WITH RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN. CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BUT WE SHOULD GET A PEAK
OF THE SUN BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND AT TIMES
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT OF RAIN AND/OR FOG. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES. 11
MARINE....
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. IN
GENERAL A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 4 FEET OR LESS DURING
THE PERIOD. 11
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 62 72 63 / 50 60 80 100
BTR 70 63 74 63 / 80 60 80 100
ASD 72 63 72 62 / 80 40 80 100
MSY 73 63 75 63 / 90 50 80 100
GPT 70 63 71 63 / 80 40 80 100
PQL 72 64 74 64 / 70 40 80 100
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
040-046>050-056>072.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT SHARPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS JET STREAK DIGS FM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH IMPACTS MOSTLY NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER COULD SEE LGT PRECIP. INCLUDED
CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST CWA AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO POSSIBILITY
AS SFC WARMING LAGS WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN RAW MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO FREEZING AT 12Z AFTER
LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL NOT HIT THIS UP TOO HARD THOUGH AS PRECIP
CHANCES OVERALL ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE BY
FRIDAY AFTN WHICH WITH SW WINDS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE UP WELL
INTO THE 50S. RAISED TEMPS FOR AT LEAST WEST HALF. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLEARING...COULD SEE REPEAT OF TUESDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS
ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING BY TIME IT REACHES EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF/NAM AND GEM TO TRACK MAINLY OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. 12Z GFS FAVORS WESTERN TRACK
WHICH BRINGS MORE PRECIP OVER MUCH OF CWA. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF AREA...COLDER AIR ADVECTION BLO H7 WOULD SWITCH ANY RAIN
QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...MORE FZRA COULD ALSO OCCUR AS
COLDER AIR FIRST ARRIVES BLO H9 WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE 0C.
GIVEN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EVEN THE FARTHER EAST NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIP IN THAT CASE WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW UPR MICHIGAN
WHERE NW WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE LIFTING. CHANCES HERE APPEAR EVEN
LESS THAN THOSE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THAT IS UNLESS THE 12Z
GFS IS CORRECT WITH ITS WETTER SOLUTION. STRONG NW WINDS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THOUGH IT COULD
PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SCNTRL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE
SNOW ON GROUND IS LIMITED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT
COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 10C THROUGH 18Z. GFS
MUCH COLDER THOUGH. USED CONSENSUS AND BUMPED UP OVER SCNTRL BUT
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH SPEED OF FROPA AND
THUS THE MAX TEMPS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THAT TIME FRAME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER EAST HALF
WITH MAINLY RAIN UNTIL SUB -10C TEMPS AT H85 CRASH IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. SOME OPEN WATER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR
SO GIVEN LINGERING H85 MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15C MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR LK EFFECT
IN NW FLOW AREAS FM NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EAST CWA. OTHER BIG STORY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. INCREASED THESE
OVER CONSENSUS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF WINDS MAY EVEN END UP STRONGER GIVEN THE SHARP
CONTRAST OF THE AIRMASSES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUB 995MB LOW TRACKING WEST-TO-EAST
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP WITH THE COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES FOR NW FLOW AREAS. H85
TEMPS FM 12Z ECMWF ARE DOWN TO -20C ON TUESDAY. GFS MUCH MORE
MODERATE WITH ONLY -10C THOUGH SO WILL KEEP WITH CONSENSUS AS MODELS
ARE NOT TOO CONSISTENT ON EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY EVENING HAS NOW LIFTED NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS NOTED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. UPPER MI IS CLOUD FREE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS GENERATING AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NE ND AND
SRN MANITOBA. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD REACH INTO THE WRN FCST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INCREASING IN CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-UPPER RDG FM THE ROCKIES.
TODAY...ANY OF THE MID CLOUDS THAT DRIFT IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH AS WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SFC RDG AXIS AND
ALSO ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S
CNTRL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S PERHAPS EVEN
APPROACHING 50F IN A FEW SPOTS WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH EVEN COOLER
READINGS (MID 30S) ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HIGH RES
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE ON MAX TEMPS
SO SIDED WITH ITS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO BEST CAPTURE THE
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND
ERN LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WL STAY WARMER (MID TO UPPER
20S) DUE TO QUICKER ADVANCE OF CLOUDS AND TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT
AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW LEADING TO INCREASED MIXING FM S-SE WINDS.
MODELS SHOW UPPER MI STAYING DRY WITH WAA PCPN ASSOC WITH PLAINS LOW
GENERALLY STAYING NORTH INTO ONTARIO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE TO +6C ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE TUESDAY WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAINED SW...THURSDAY
WILL SEE WINDS SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO FILTER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EASTWARD. IN FACT...MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SAWYER SUGGESTS COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...DESPITE MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...THE AIRMASS WILL JUST BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH BROAD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NWP SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...DESPITE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS N-NW ALLOWING FOR SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
IN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID PCPN TO CHANCE TO SNOW BUT ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN
INCH IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO 850MB TEMPS ONLY
FALLING TO -8C.
HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPS RISE ONCE AGAIN TO +4C
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SOME FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE NWP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR DETERMINING
THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WILL
BE A WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +12C...BUT THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND SHOWS FALLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL
GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SUGGEST. BREEZY
AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME
MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. WINDS AT
SAW ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO NNE WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW GRADIENT FLOW DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO TONIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IT`S BEEN A DAY OF EXTREMES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. INLAND TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO THE HIGHEST
READINGS OBSERVED ALL YEAR WITH A RECORD-TYING 86 DEGREES IN
FLORENCE AND A RECORD-BREAKING 84 IN WILMINGTON. IN FACT VIRTUALLY
EVERY LOCATION MORE THAN 3 OR 4 MILES INLAND REACHED 80+ DEGREES
TODAY. AT THE BEACHES IT`S BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY WITH COLD MARINE
AIR HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SPRINGMAID PIER IN MYRTLE BEACH
AND OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPERATURES RISE
OUT OF THE 50S ALL DAY!
DENSE SEA FOG...FORMED BY HUMID AIR STREAMING OVER VERY COLD
NEARSHORE WATERS...HAS AFFECTED MAINLY THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES
ALL DAY. UNTIL WINDS VEER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT I FEAR FOG
WILL SPREAD BACK ONTO THE HORRY COUNTY BEACHES THIS EVENING. I AM
PREPARING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL HORRY COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE IN PIECES. THE FIRST PIECE/LEADING EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF CHARLOTTE TO JUST SOUTH OF
ASHEBORO TO NEAR RALEIGH...WHILE A SECOND BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIE
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PIECE WILL
ACTUALLY BE DEFINED AS "THE FRONT" I AM EXPECTING FROPA IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 8-10 PM...AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
VIRTUALLY ABSENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO FAR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE WEAK AIRMASS INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AFTER
DARK ALONG THE FRONT. 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD...SO DESPITE FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
BETWEEN 850-700 MB PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT IN THE GEORGETOWN-MYRTLE BEACH AREA...TO 50-60 PERCENT
ACROSS LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
COOL ADVECTION IS NOT PRONOUNCED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MY FORECAST
LOWS ARE AT THE HIGH END OF THE MOS RANGE...AROUND 56-61 ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH 54-59 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE RAINFALL AND ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST AFTER
18Z FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH NE COUNTIES TILL FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW
60S EAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NW TO
UPPER 50S EAST BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RISING TEMPERATURES
COULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT IF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES ASHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM BUT WET TO START THE PERIOD...BEFORE A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY...NO
REAL ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A COASTAL FRONT/WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 295K LEVEL WILL
INITIALLY DRIVE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WILL SHUT OFF BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY
A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
AN END TO ANY PRECIP. WHILE DRY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FROPA...COLD ADVECTION LAGS A BIT BEHIND...SO TEMPS
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...NEAR SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
THEREAFTER...NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY DESPITE 2 COLD SURGES CROSSING
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE SECOND WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING. NEITHER OF THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP...AND THE COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IS WEAK. STILL...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MONDAY...AND THEN AROUND CLIMO WEDNESDAY...WHILE
RISING ABOVE FOR TUESDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE
PLEASANT LATE SPRING WEATHER WITH NO TRULY COLD AIR ANYWHERE ON THE
HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SOME SEA STRATUS/FOG WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE COAST...OTHERWISE PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE ONSET. A COLD FRONT
IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. LOOK
FOR INTERMITTENT LIGHT CONVECTION AT AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING AFTER THAT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH FALLING TEMPS...AS
WELL AS FALLING CEILINGS. IFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET TOWARD
MORNING...LIFTING BACK TO IFR AFTER DAYBREAK. CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY CLIMBING TEMPS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURS WITH VFR
DEVELOPING. EARLY FRI VFR. IFR/MVFR/SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE FRI
PERSISTING INTO SAT. VFR DEVELOPING SUN AND PERSISTING INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
STREAKS OF DENSE SEA FOG COVERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THE THICKEST
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEACHES...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CAPE FEAR. THIS FOG IS THE
RESULT OF HUMID AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA BEING CHILLED
DOWN TO ITS DEWPOINT BY THE VERY COLD LOCAL OCEAN WATERS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND AROUND
MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP EARLY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO VEER THIS EVENING.
SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL PUSH
SEAS EAST OF CAPE FEAR UP TOWARD 5 FEET BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
ON THURS WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE THURS INTO FRI WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THURS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WE COULD SEE SCA
THRESHOLDS REACHED THURS AFTN AND NIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IS WATER TEMPERATURES AS THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD RELATIVE TO THEM. THIS COULD KEEP SCA LEVEL
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS WINDS UP
TO 25 KT BUT CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THAT LEVEL IS LOW SO AN SCA
HAS NOT BEEN RAISED ATTM. IF WINDS COME UP ENOUGH...SEAS COULD
BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO S BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS INVOF OF 15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF AROUND 4 FT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN
DURING SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS AND
ONSHORE. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SLOW VEERING TO THE SW OCCURRING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING
SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTH WINDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING LATE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AS THE ELEVATED
SW WINDS DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT...BUT THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED THANKS TO THE NW FLOW SUNDAY PUSHING THE HIGHEST SEAS
OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT WITH A
NW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT...AND THEN FALL FURTHER MONDAY TO 1-3 FT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ110.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN OVER
THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO CREATE
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. THE MOIST WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BRIEF...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY...WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE STILL ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE SW PORTION OF THE RAIN AREA
BECOMING MORE SCT. WILL KEEP POP TREND IN THE SCT CAT OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS AS CLOUDS SLOWER TO INCREASE
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HIGHS AROUBND 80 IN THE LOWER PIEMDONT
AREAS.
AS OF 0945 AM...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS INTO FAR WESTERN NC. LATEST RAP BRINGS THE FRONT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS CIRCA 22Z. COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAY DIMINISH AS THE
FORNT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN. HENCE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WAS TO LOWER THEM
SOMEWHAT BY BLENDING IN THE LATEST CONSHORT POPS. THIS STILL GIVES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERATES SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
FIELDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION: AS OF 645 AM...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN/KY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO
DRIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST TN...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. SAID AXIS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EWD LATER THIS MRNG
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE. THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TRANSIENT SHOWERS BEFORE
DAWN...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AND BECOMING FOCUSED MORE EWD
AS THE BOUNDARY ENCROACHES. A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AT LEAST. SOME OF THE BETTER DRAINAGES IN THE
REGION MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF MILE...BUT
THESE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. EXPECTATIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA AS A
BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT. THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS NOT
SPECTACULAR IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN TERMS OF
PCPBL WATER...BEING UPWARDS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE NWS RAPID
CITY PWAT CLIMO CHARTS AT BOTH ATLANTA AND GREENSBORO. IT ALSO
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR MODELS ALL SHOW SBCAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE FRONT TIMED TO BE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER AROUND THEN. MADE A MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE CAPES
SEEMED SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...MOSTLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THUS DEVELOP CELLS DROPPING
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. BLENDED A
BIT OF QPF FROM THESE MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC MODEL CONSENSUS THIS
AFTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. ON ANOTHER NOTE...25-35 KT OF
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORIENTED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IS NOT IN PLAY UNTIL AFTER THE
FROPA...SO DOWNBURST WINDS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MULTIPLE CELLS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOIL/STREAM CAPACITY IS LIKELY PRETTY HIGH
GIVEN RECENT DRY WX...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE COMFORTABLY WARM...5-10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM N TO S BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACRS THE
AREA. HOWEVER MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 15 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DAMMING
LOCATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SRLY FLOW UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THU...BUT WITH THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME LIKELY SHUNTED WELL
WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE MOIST
UPGLIDE AND CAD SETUP...EXPECT MAXES TO BE LIMITED TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON THU...AND THEN UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE HEART OF THE CAD EVENT ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF THU NIGHT
AND FRI SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS TO
DEVELOP...UNLESS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE MOIST THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE UPGLIDE FORCING WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE FRI
NIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW VEERS SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHUD BE CROSSING THE AREA (OR ALREADY THRU THE AREA)
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
UPPER TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON
SUNDAY...USHERING IN NWLY 500 MB FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST ACRS THE
CWFA THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROF WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...SO EXPECT DRY WX WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE OF WEAK DRY COLD FRONTS PASS THRU WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN A SLGT CHC POP ALONG
THE TN BORDER WILL BE CARRIED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKTAF 000
TTAA00 KCAE 111043
AT KCLT...MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE AIRFIELD WILL SEE ANY THUNDER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA BY
21Z. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER 50S...SBCAPE WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND HAVE A 2
HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 20-22Z. OTHERWISE JUST VFR CLOUDS WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS TURING NW BY 21Z...AND THEN NE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AS COLD AIR
DAMMING DEVLOPS.
ELSEWHERE...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AVL AND HKY...AND WILL
REACH THE SC AIRFIELDS IN THE 20Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. WILL MENTION TEMPO
SHRA AT AVL/HKY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OR A COUPLE HOURS YET PER
RADAR. IN SC....WILL STAY WITH CONTINUITY AND MENTION A TEMPO -TSRA
THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING LOWER SO IT COULD BE JUST -SHRA.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVLOP AFTER 12Z THU AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE LATER
THURSDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% MED 75%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KAVL MED 67% MED 68% MED 72% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 68%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 79%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN OVER
THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO CREATE
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. THE MOIST WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE STARTING ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BRIEF...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY...WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM...COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE STILL ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE SW PORTION OF
THE RAIN AREA BECOMING MORE SCT. WILL KEEP POP TREND IN THE SCT
CAT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS AS CLOUDS
SLOWER TO INCREASE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HIGHS AROUBND 80
IN THE LOWER PIEMDONT AREAS.
AS OF 0945 AM...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS INTO FAR WESTERN NC. LATEST RAP BRINGS THE FRONT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS CIRCA 22Z. COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAY DIMINISH AS THE
FORNT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN. HENCE...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WAS TO LOWER THEM
SOMEWHAT BY BLENDING IN THE LATEST CONSHORT POPS. THIS STILL GIVES
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERATES SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER
FIELDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION: AS OF 645 AM...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN/KY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO
DRIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EAST TN...WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. SAID AXIS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EWD LATER THIS MRNG
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE. THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TRANSIENT SHOWERS BEFORE
DAWN...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING AND BECOMING FOCUSED MORE EWD
AS THE BOUNDARY ENCROACHES. A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AT LEAST. SOME OF THE BETTER DRAINAGES IN THE
REGION MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF MILE...BUT
THESE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. EXPECTATIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA AS A
BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT. THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FORCING IS NOT
SPECTACULAR IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN TERMS OF
PCPBL WATER...BEING UPWARDS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE NWS RAPID
CITY PWAT CLIMO CHARTS AT BOTH ATLANTA AND GREENSBORO. IT ALSO
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR MODELS ALL SHOW SBCAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE FRONT TIMED TO BE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER AROUND THEN. MADE A MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE CAPES
SEEMED SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...MOSTLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THUS DEVELOP CELLS DROPPING
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. BLENDED A
BIT OF QPF FROM THESE MODELS WITH THE SYNOPTIC MODEL CONSENSUS THIS
AFTN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. ON ANOTHER NOTE...25-35 KT OF
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ORIENTED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IS NOT IN PLAY UNTIL AFTER THE
FROPA...SO DOWNBURST WINDS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER THE SHEAR MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MULTIPLE CELLS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOIL/STREAM CAPACITY IS LIKELY PRETTY HIGH
GIVEN RECENT DRY WX...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE COMFORTABLY WARM...5-10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM N TO S BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACRS THE
AREA. HOWEVER MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 15 DEG ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DAMMING
LOCATION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SRLY FLOW UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THU...BUT WITH THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME LIKELY SHUNTED WELL
WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AREA THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE MOIST
UPGLIDE AND CAD SETUP...EXPECT MAXES TO BE LIMITED TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON THU...AND THEN UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE HEART OF THE CAD EVENT ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST QPF THU NIGHT
AND FRI SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS TO
DEVELOP...UNLESS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE MOIST THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE UPGLIDE FORCING WILL THEN GRADUALLY WANE FRI
NIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW VEERS SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD WEDGE KEEPING A TOE HOLD IN THE
FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK SAT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE VERY
SLOW TO SCATTER OUT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A TRUE SCOURING MECHANISM
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT WEDGE EROSION OCCURS SAT
AFTN...ENOUGH PIEDMONT INSTABILITY COULD BE UNCOVERED FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN EXTREME ERN/SRN SECTIONS...BUT WILL JUST KEEP A
SCATTERED SHOWER MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE DIGGING TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
DEEPER DRYING ENSUING. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER FROM THE W. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW ON TUE...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIG/VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SINK THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS. A SEASONALLY MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES...SO I
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU LATE
AFTN. POST FROPA DRIER AIR THEN WILL SETTLE IN AND WINDS FLIP TO
NLY. A LOW VFR CIG IS LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR DAYBREAK THU.
ELSEWHERE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACRS THE AREA TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACRS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CIGS IN
SOME PLACES. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TS
MENTION AT THE SC SITES. PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY TS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND RESULTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT
LEAST ISOLATED AREAS SAW IFR VSBY IN TSRA THIS AFTN. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POST FROPA AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO
THE REGION...CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPS...BUT WILL OMIT SUCH FROM CURRENT TAF SET. SOME MTN VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE WEEK IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO...WHICH LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE APPRECIABLY SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 62%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 66% HIGH 100% LOW 58% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND LOW 58% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP TO THE UPPER 20S. RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
SATURATION AT THE SURFACE. I ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW COVER REMAINING. THIS IS MAINLY WHERE THERE
WAS FOG THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS OFF THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MASS
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. 925MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE 7 TO
9 DEG C ON THURSDAY YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE BULK OF
MOISTURE/LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SFC LOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 10-12C
RANGE...SUGGESTING LOW TO MID 60S AT THE SURFACE. BIGGEST ISSUE IS
IF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CHILLY
LAKE AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WITH FORECAST WINDS OF ABOUT 10
KNOTS...DECIDED IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE AWAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MORE ALONG SHORE WINDS
BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM IN THE FAR
EAST AS IT MIGHT END UP BEING.
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. EVEN SO...IT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS
TIME PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS FRONT...PUTTING A QUESTION
MARK ON MONDAY TEMPS. THE CANADIAN REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND
WARMEST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT THROUGH BY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO 50. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SLOWED BACK DOWN A
BIT...SO DID NOT CUT TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SYSTEM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
UNDER A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER...THOUGH LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE MVFR OR IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION...MARQUARDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV