Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/10/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MOSQUITO RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AM. INITIALLY...THE
AIRMASS SEEMS FAIRLY DRY. THERE IS A SWATH OF MID/HI LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO RIGHT NOW BUT LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN
WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY AND EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE IN PARK COUNTY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS SATURATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
QUESTION IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH? FOR NOW WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. WILL REASSESS THIS
FOR AFTERNOON IN CASE HILITES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP SOME WEAK QG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7/5C/KM. RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
SUMMIT COUNTY REFLECT THIS INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INCLUDING SUMMIT
COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THERE. WL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT SOME SMALL POTENTIAL OF THIS AS
WELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DENVER EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN PRESSURE
RISES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS
NNWLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH SOME BRIEF SCT LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ON MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. CAN`T RULE
OUT THAT A FEW LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG MONDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED ST MOST...WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5F
ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
A PACIFIC WAVE SHEARING INTO TWO WITH ONE PIECE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND PART OF IT DIGS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO MEXICO. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE
WETTER AND COOLER HAS A SECOND WAVE PASSING THROUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT FORMS. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR THIS. IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF IT...LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A HIGH OVER LOW
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH THE LOW OVER
MEXICO. FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
VERY LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP SOME WEAK QG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7/5C/KM. RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
SUMMIT COUNTY REFLECT THIS INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INCLUDING SUMMIT
COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THERE. WL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT SOME SMALL POTENTIAL OF THIS AS
WELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DENVER EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12Z. MAIN
PRESSURE RISES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. SFC
WINDS NNWLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH SOME BRIEF SCT LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ON MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A FEW LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG MONDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED ST MOST...WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5F ON
MONDAY.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
A PACIFIC WAVE SHEARING INTO TWO WITH ONE PIECE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND PART OF IT DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO MEXICO. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE
WETTER AND COOLER HAS A SECOND WAVE PASSING THROUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT FORMS. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR THIS. IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF IT...LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A HIGH OVER LOW
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH THE LOW OVER
MEXICO. FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FRONT TO THE
NORTH TO DENVER SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING AROUND
12Z. NNWLY WINDS FOLLOWING FROPA. COULD SEE A BRIEF BKN MID CLOUD
DECK THIS MORNING...BUT PROSPECTS OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK ARE NOT
LOOKING TOO GOOD AT THIS POINT. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO ESELY
BY THIS AFTN...THEN BACK TO A SLY DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Current fcst is well on track and just made a few very minor
tweaks to temps and dewpoints. Main concern overnight will be the
potential for low cloud and fog development, with some fairly
marked differences in the available guidance. With still plenty of
mid and upper level clouds to erode, believe the more optimistic
HRRR and MET guidance from the NAM may be closer to the end
result. Therefore, fog was still left out of the grids but not
entirely out of the Tafs as described below.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday] Complex Taf fcst for late tonight and
early Tuesday morning, as there is quite a bit of variability in
the numerical and high-res guidance. For most of the terminals,
decided to err on the side of caution, which resulted in a middle
of the road approach. Have conditions dropping down to MVFR levels
at ECP, DHN, and ABY, with a period of IFR levels at TLH and LIFR
at VLD, as even the optimistic HRRR shows the potential for poor
conditions at Valdosta. After the early to mid morning hours,
expect VFR conditions to return with breezy conditions off of the
Gulf.
&&
.Prev Discussion [345 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The local area will remain on the western periphery of deep layer
ridging through the short term period. A few surface troughs
wrapping around the periphery of the ridge may result in an
isolated shower or two on through Wednesday, though rain chances
will remain quite low. Expect afternoon highs in the lower to
middle 80s, with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There remains a great deal of difference between the GFS and the
ECMWF to start the extended range forecast. While both have
essentially the same pattern, its the placement of the features
that is not well agreed upon. This will be the difference between
nearly continuous rain Thursday through Saturday, or low-end rain
chances up until Saturday. This forecast package favors the wetter
solution using the Canadian (which is closer to the GFS) as a tie-
breaker. Either way, Saturday looks to be wet as a cold front
moves through the Tri-State region. Behind the front on Saturday,
there is consensus in a stretch of dry weather.
.Marine...
Winds should remain just below cautionary levels through tomorrow,
then subside and remain relatively light to finish the week.
.Fire Weather...
Moisture continues to increase throughout the week with the highest
rain chances Wednesday through Friday. Dispersion values will be in
the mid 20s on Wednesday due to light transport winds. No red flag
concerns at this time.
.Hydrology...
A few points along our area rivers remain in action stage, but all
have crested and are on track to fall below flood stage before our
next round of heavy rain this weekend. Currently, the forecast is
for widespread rainfall totals of 1-2.5" with this system, with the
highest totals in the western half of our area. However, there is
some disagreement between the global models with the GFS being much
wetter than the ECMWF. At this time, no flooding is forecast through
the end of the week, although some points may return to action stage
with this next round of rainfall.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 59 83 61 83 64 / 0 10 10 20 20
Panama City 60 75 61 74 65 / 10 10 10 20 30
Dothan 57 82 61 81 66 / 10 20 10 40 30
Albany 57 82 60 83 65 / 10 10 10 40 30
Valdosta 59 85 61 85 66 / 0 10 10 30 20
Cross City 61 85 61 83 65 / 0 10 20 30 20
Apalachicola 61 71 62 71 64 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS (REST OF TODAY)...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOWS CONVERGENT
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS OUT OF MEXICO...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDE WITHIN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW IS STAYING
TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY ZONAL...THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE RIDGED IN NATURE AS ONE COMES
DOWN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY BY 650/700/800MB. THE 08/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THIS RIDGING WITH A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 800MB. THE SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES WITH IN
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE JUST BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
AT THE SURFACE...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE SC/GA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
OUR POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS
FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE DAY IN
STORE TO END OUT THE WEEKEND. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER VERY SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS/NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN OVER THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...AND STILL FEEL IT WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTIES THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BKN CUMULUS FIELD HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. WILL PATTERN OF MOSTLY SUNNY
NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S NORTH...UPPER 70S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE DID END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF
A SEA-BREEZE...ESPECIALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE NATURE
COAST...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY FIND WINDS
TURNING LOCALLY ONSHORE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA. SO...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY STRENGTHEN BUT
BECOME DEEPER IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS WE SEE PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC
RIDGING APPEARING AS HIGH AS 500-400MB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DEEPER
SUPPRESSION SHOULD HELP THE FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ALOFT FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...AND ARE GENERALLY QUITE DRY ABOVE 700MB.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN
THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET OR SO. AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD...
THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE SURFACE FOCUS...WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE
295-300K SURFACES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NEARSHORE
WINDS...APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS BASED ON THE
OVERLAPPING OF FEATURES WOULD EXIST FROM AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE CHANCE RANGE POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM AROUND 30% TO 40-50% FOR THIS
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. BASED ON ALL THE GUIDANCE...THIS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCE MAY STILL BE A BIT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AND THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE MAY VERY WELL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE BUMPED UP INTO
THE "LIKELY" RANGE...THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SITUATION WITH ONLY A
LIMITED IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT...WITH LOW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED A QUARTER INCH. WHILE THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL
CERTAINLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDINESS...WILL ALSO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH
SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BOOST THE TEMPS FAST. CURRENT MOS READINGS
ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK...SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 80 OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN AREAS...AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IF A FEEBLE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
TUE-THU; AN UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO SLIDES WEST TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS FL RESULTING IN A WARM AND
SOMEWHAT STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
BETWEEN LATITUDES 30 AND 40 NORTH...RE-LOCATES DOWN TO LATITUDE 30
WHILE RIDGING IN ACROSS FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO . THIS
PROVIDES A RELAXED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
PROVIDE SOME SEA FOG TUE-WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
FRI-SUN; THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EASES EASTWARD...STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIPS EAST AS IT FLATTENS AS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING IN
ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC...REINFORCING THE HIGH ALONG LATITUDE 30 WHICH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS FL TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UP
THROUGH SAT THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. BUT
THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUN...THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON
OVER THE AREA...AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BRUSHES OVER THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE FL/GA/AL BORDER.
THE GFS SLOWS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENS IT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY SAGS IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS EACH DAY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE WED LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO SEE A BKN CU
DECK FROM KPGD SOUTHWARD TO KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER BASES HAVE RAISED
ABOVE VFR LEVELS AND EXPECT THIS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE 4-6KFT FOOT RANGE.
SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW
LATE AT NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS...BUT RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHT AND SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG ISSUES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW MOVES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
LOOKS TO ENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 63 80 66 / 0 0 30 10
FMY 82 65 83 66 / 10 20 30 0
GIF 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 30 10
SRQ 80 63 80 65 / 0 0 30 10
BKV 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 10
SPG 78 65 79 68 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
127 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND THE ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS IS BECOMING
MORE BROKEN IN APPEARANCE AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE. LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL CAN BE FOUND IN THE UPPER KEYS AND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CAN
BE SEEN NORTH OF SUGARLOAF. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE MORNING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDINESS HAS HELD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
KEYS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE
LOWER 80S. WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 15 TO 20 IN THE UPPER KEYS ALONG
THE DISSIPATING SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS.
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SUCH THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED IF THAT.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS
NEAR 15 KNOTS...BUT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE WINDS MAY STAY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLIER PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY HIGH THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL HOLD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE COASTALS
FORECAST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE CWA. DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND
LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY DISRUPT THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
DROP WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 16 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 73 82 75 82 / - 10 10 10
MARATHON 73 84 75 85 / - 10 10 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY-MONDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOWS CONVERGENT
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS OUT OF MEXICO...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDE WITHIN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW IS STAYING
TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY ZONAL...THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE RIDGED IN NATURE AS ONE COMES
DOWN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY BY 650/700/800MB. THE 08/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THIS RIDGING WITH A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 800MB. THE SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES WITH IN
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE JUST BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
AT THE SURFACE...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE SC/GA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
OUR POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS
FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE DAY IN
STORE TO END OUT THE WEEKEND. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER VERY SOUTH FLORIDA...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
MOVEMENT (PERHAPS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT) OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN OVER
THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...AND FEEL IT WILL BE
OVER THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTIES THAT HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS ESPECIALLY
HINTS AT SUFFICIENT LIFT ARRIVING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/LEE) TO SUPPORT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES BY THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NILL. ELSEWHERE...FOR THE REMAINING 90% OF THE AREA...THE
FORECAST IS DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IN FACT...IT WILL
LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING UP
TOWARD LEVY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH
MIDDLE 70S FAR NORTH...UPPER 70S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF A SEA-BREEZE. WINDS
MAY SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AT THE COAST AND OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE FAIL TO SHIFT THE
FLOW ONSHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW IN THE
975-900MB LAYER. THE KTBW SOUNDING HAD WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS JUST 1000
FEET AGL. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
EVEN 10-15 KNOTS IS USUALLY ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY REAL SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION IN CHECK.
TONIGHT...
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA. SO...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY STRENGTHEN BUT
BECOME DEEPER IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS WE SEE PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC
RIDGING APPEARING AS HIGH AS 500-400MB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DEEPER
SUPPRESSION SHOULD HELP THE FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ALOFT FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...AND ARE GENERALLY QUITE DRY ABOVE 700MB.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN
THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET OR SO. AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD...
THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE SURFACE FOCUS...WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE
295-300K SURFACES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NEARSHORE
WINDS...APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SCT
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS BASED ON THE OVERLAPPING
OF FEATURES WOULD EXIST FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. THIS
AREA IS WHERE THE CHANCE RANGE POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
SITUATION WITH ONLY A LIMITED IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE
LIMITED DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIGHT...WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WILL CERTAINLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDINESS...WILL ALSO EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...AND IT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BOOST THE TEMPS FAST. CURRENT MOS
READINGS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 80
OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS...AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IF A FEEBLE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING UNDER A SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK. THESE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS.
WIND WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DECK OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW MOVES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
LOOKS TO REENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 63 80 66 / 0 0 30 10
FMY 82 65 83 66 / 10 20 30 0
GIF 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 30 10
SRQ 80 63 80 65 / 0 0 30 10
BKV 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 10
SPG 78 65 79 68 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
AVIATION...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
154 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID-
LVL CLOUDS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS HAS CREATED A SLIGHT THERMAL
DIFFERENTIAL OF COOLER TEMPS UNDERNEATH...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. MEANWHILE EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW POCKETS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING IN THE MID 20S..WHICH WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE PRECIP
AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN ANY OF
THE PRECIP STILL FALLING WILL BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. GUIDANCE
ALL INDICATES THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTING EAST LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ERODING MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
WITH MID-LVL FLOW SEMI-ZONAL AND SFC RIDGING SLIDING EAST...TEMPS
MON SHUD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 40S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. 950MB GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...HOWEVER LATER IN
THE WEEK THIS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT.
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUE...WITH A SFC WAVE BEING REFLECTED
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHUD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
CWFA WITH AN EXPECTED DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING A WELCOME THERMAL RIDGE OF 5 TO 7
DEG C AT 850MB TUE. THIS SHUD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY WARM INTO
THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 50S. SFC RIDGING APPEARS TO BE
STRETCHED...WITH A SECOND FOCUS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WOULD INDICATE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWEST TUE NGT. LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
154 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. SFC RIDGING WILL BE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN IL
WED MIDDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD MARINE AIR TO BLEED INLAND FROM A LAKE
BREEZE...AND LOCK AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE UPR 30S FOR
HIGHS WED. FURTHER INLAND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS HOLDING
ARND 5 TO 7 DEG C WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE A FEW UPR 50S TO 60
DEGREE READINGS WED AFTN.
THUR THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN MEMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SPREAD STEADILY RAMPS UP. THUR/FRI TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE LONGER TERM...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO BEEN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENN
VALLEY THUR AFTN. PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO BE EXPANSIVE...AND COULD
REACH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA THUR EVE. TEMPS SHUD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO LIMIT P-TYPE AS LGT RAIN...HOWEVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
COULD SEE A LGT RA/SN MIX THUR NGT. PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS OVERHEAD
FRI AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST FRI NGT/EARLY SAT. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS IN
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.
BEACHLER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DROPPED
CONDITIONS TO MFVR OR IFR IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS BUT THE MORE
ACTIVE BANDS STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE ORD AND MDW TERMINALS AS
ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING IN MILDER
AIR AND TURN ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION INTO ALL LIQUID...IF
ANYTHING IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
ALREADY LIGHT WINDS MAY GO VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH.
SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
135 PM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES EAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.9 INCHES
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE LAKES AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
253 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the
remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures
from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid
40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite
imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead,
but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72
corridor.
The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog,
with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal
boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and
this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high
pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of
the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight,
as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing
widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model
have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern
flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson),
with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR
solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off
the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200
feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy
fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after
midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more
widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
High pressure area will slowly move across the region through
tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north
into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern
part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern
extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface
ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models
seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The
GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so
will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of
the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue
through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and
continuing through Wed night.
By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading
pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently,
all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period.
GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this
pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and
blend.
Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to
around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the
week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR conditions to prevail across central Illinois into at least
early evening. Main concern is with the moisture from melting snow
in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, and any fog potential. Winds this
evening are expected to weaken some as an area of high pressure
settles over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Latest RAP
guidance keeps any dense fog threat further south for now near a
weak frontal boundary, but current depth is 2-4 inches near KDEC
and KCMI, so plenty of moisture is being released. Have added
prevailing MVFR visibilities for some light fog overnight at these
sites, and TEMPO conditions at KSPI where the snow cover is
thinner.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT
STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING
WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A
LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH
THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT
THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS
TEMPS WARM.
SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON
THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE
GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
340 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS
EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG
COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED
ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD.
KMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PATCHY SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY BRIEFLY...AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DROPPED
CONDITIONS TO MFVR OR IFR IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS BUT THE MORE
ACTIVE BANDS STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE ORD AND MDW TERMINALS AS
ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING IN MILDER
AIR AND TURN ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION INTO ALL LIQUID...IF
ANYTHING IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
ALREADY LIGHT WINDS MAY GO VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH.
SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
340 AM CDT
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL
REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF
WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND
TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the
northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping
southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the
northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is
mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the
precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of
counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation
north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for
now.
Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures.
There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now
cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and
reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising
temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to
Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast
Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave
currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on
water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is
producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface
observations.
Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic
ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However,
the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and
the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is
progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the
local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due
to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry
system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some
areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely
to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through
Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond
that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow
pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb
temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps
rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through
Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip
chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12
hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north,
but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have
started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them
again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit
overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and
underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing.
Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences
btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the
ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low
moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through
and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half
of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting
the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops
into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal
solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a
result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR conditions to prevail across central Illinois into at least
early evening. Main concern is with the moisture from melting snow
in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, and any fog potential. Winds this
evening are expected to weaken some as an area of high pressure
settles over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Latest RAP
guidance keeps any dense fog threat further south for now near a
weak frontal boundary, but current depth is 2-4 inches near KDEC
and KCMI, so plenty of moisture is being released. Have added
prevailing MVFR visibilities for some light fog overnight at these
sites, and TEMPO conditions at KSPI where the snow cover is
thinner.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1123 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT
STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING
WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A
LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH
THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT
THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS
TEMPS WARM.
SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON
THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE
GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
340 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS
EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG
COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED
ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD.
KMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE PRODUCING
PATCHES OF MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR BUT THESE APPEAR TO
BE STAYING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH MDW MIGHT BE CLIPPED
AND BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE LOWER CONDITIONS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A BAND OF MID LEVEL PRECIP IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST IL THROUGH NW IA. ONLY A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING
RAIN OR SNOW SO STILL THINKING THE TERMINALS WILL MISS OUT ON THE
PRECIP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FORCING FOR THE BAND DIMINISHES AS
IT SINKS SOUTH. GYY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR -RA. MVFR
CIGS APPEAR VERY CLOSELY TIED TO WHERE PRECIP IS REACHING THE SFC
SO ONLY HAVE MVFR CIGS AT GYY. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR VERY LONG.
WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN..AND THEN VEER BACK TO WEST
THIS EVENING. CIGS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT MDW MISSES THE SNOW AND STAYS VFR.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ORD MISSES THE SNOW AND STAYS VFR.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH.
SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
340 AM CDT
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL
REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF
WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND
TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1011 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the
northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping
southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the
northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is
mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the
precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of
counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation
north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for
now.
Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures.
There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now
cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and
reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising
temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to
Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast
Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave
currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on
water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is
producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface
observations.
Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic
ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However,
the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and
the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is
progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the
local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due
to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry
system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some
areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely
to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through
Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond
that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow
pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb
temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps
rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through
Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip
chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12
hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north,
but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have
started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them
again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit
overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and
underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing.
Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences
btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the
ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low
moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through
and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half
of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting
the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops
into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal
solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a
result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time.
Upper level disturbances will produce periods of VFR cigs, but do
not expect any precipitation to reach the ground. A weak pressure
pattern through the period will produce light/variable winds;
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT
STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING
WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A
LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH
THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT
THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS
TEMPS WARM.
SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON
THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE
GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
340 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS
EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG
COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED
ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD.
KMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT IN THE MORNING. A WEAK
WAVE WILL ALSO PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHERN MN PUSHING EAST. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS THE FEATURE
WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL AND THINKING THE SPRINKLES
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS. IF THE SPRINKLES
DO REACH THE TERMINALS...LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE
ADDED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS...BUT ALSO HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFF CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY
LAST. WINDS TURN SSW THIS AFTN AND THEN VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL
LINGER IF THEY DO.
* VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
340 AM CDT
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL
REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF
WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND
TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast
Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave
currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on
water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is
producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface
observations.
Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic
ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However,
the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and
the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is
progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the
local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due
to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry
system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some
areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely
to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through
Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond
that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow
pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb
temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps
rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through
Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip
chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12
hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north,
but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have
started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them
again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit
overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and
underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing.
Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences
btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the
ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low
moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through
and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half
of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting
the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops
into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal
solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a
result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
High pressure building into Illinois from the north will keep
winds light and variable the rest of the night. Light fog could
develop due to boundary layer moisture from melting today.
However, the HRRR continues to keep any dense fog north of our TAF
sites, and no observations in and around our forecast area are
showing even a hint of vis reduction below 10sm. Will keep fog out
of this set of TAFs.
Clouds will increase from the northwest after sunrise as a
shortwave moves across N IL. We could see a few sprinkles reach
the ground near Peoria and possibly Bloomington Sunday afternoon,
but no measurable precip is expected due to dry air in the sub-
cloud layer. Cloud bases should remain VFR through the day at all
our TAF sites. Mid- high clouds will push north into IL tomorrow
as a frontal boundary stalls out just south of our counties.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...911 PM CST
NO REAL BIG CHANGES THIS EVENING...AS QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TEMP AND SKY TRENDS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS TEMPS SLOWLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 20S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT....
COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS IT DOES SO. THERE ISNT A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT....AS WELL AS A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ENABLE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
CHICAGO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN AND NEAR
DOWNTOWN.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON HANDLING A BAND OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON SUNDAY...STRONGEST AT 700 MB. THERE WAS BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY IN POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT ALSO IN WEAKENING THE FGEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...DID REINTRODUCE POPS...BUT KEPT THEM IN
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MENTIONED OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN GRIDS. CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAVORED. MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THEN WASHOUT...WITH BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-80...AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LET TEMPERATURES DIP INTO
THE 20S. A FEW UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY.
MONDAY...
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OFF THE
EXISTING SNOW COVER. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY
OVERALL. PROGGED 850/925 MB TEMPERATURE CLIMO ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
LOW-MID 40S FOR HIGHS...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANTICIPATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO REALIZE WARMING FROM MILD MID TO HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AIR MASS AT 850 AND 925 MB TO BE
REALIZED...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AIR MASS
WILL BE AS WARM OR WARM ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...A
BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR OUR MOST POPULOUS AREA...INCLUDING
CHICAGO...WILL BE THE FRIGID WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WAS HOPING
THAT THE CONSISTENT IDEA SHOWN BY THE GFS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY WOULD NOT PAN OUT...BUT NOW AM MORE
CONCERNED...AS 12Z ECMWF JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...WITH BETTER SUPPORT FOR
ONSHORE FLOW ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES LAKESIDE WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S...IF NOT 60S IN SPOTS. GUIDANCE SPED UP ARRIVAL
OF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE
WEEK...SO NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF CWA. AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE QUITE MILD...SO NO PTYPE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. ONSHORE
FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.
RC
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT IN THE MORNING. A WEAK
WAVE WILL ALSO PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHERN MN PUSHING EAST. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS THE FEATURE
WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL AND THINKING THE SPRINKLES
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS. IF THE SPRINKLES
DO REACH THE TERMINALS...LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE
ADDED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS...BUT ALSO HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFF CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY
LAST. WINDS TURN SSW THIS AFTN AND THEN VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL
LINGER IF THEY DO.
* VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
205 PM CST
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE LAKE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN THE
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN
CONUS...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT
AGAIN BEFORE BACKING TO SWLY AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW
CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD JAMES BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY SWLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SWLY-NWLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SHOULD HELP BREAK UP ICE COVERAGE OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...OPENING UP THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BY MIDWEEK...A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP ELY-SELY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM
MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1139 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A cold front will drop south through Illinois tonight. High
pressure immediately behind the front will cause winds to shift
from west to N-NW and become light. Somewhat drier air will begin
to arrive behind the front as well. However, the 00z model
guidance and latest HRRR update all show a narrow ribbon of
moisture at the ground level overnight. Dewpoint depressions have
dipped to 4-6F already in several areas, with overnight lows
projected to drop 10-14 degrees below current readings. HRRR
visibility projections had steadily improved with each hourly
update this afternoon and early evening, with no dense fog in our
counties overnight. The last update introduced some 5 mile fog,
with dense fog just north of Galesburg to Lacon. Will continue
with no mention of fog in the grids/forecast due to no sites
showing any hint of vis restrictions even with small dewpoint
depressions.
The only clouds of note overnight will be some cirrus in the
southern stream flows into our counties south of I-70, and some
mid clouds in the northern stream reaching our NW counties toward
sunrise. Only adjustments this evening were minor changes in
clouds and hourly temp trends. Overall forecast in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
20z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold extending from southern
Lake Michigan to far northern Missouri. Ahead of the boundary, W/SW
winds and abundant sunshine have resulted in temperatures rising
well into the 40s across central and southeast Illinois. In fact,
readings have reached the lower to middle 50s from Bloomington and
Lincoln westward to the Mississippi River where most of the snow
cover has melted. The cold front will sweep through the area this
evening, turning the winds to the W/NW but bringing in only a
slightly cooler airmass. Overnight low temperatures will generally
be in the middle to upper 20s. Some high-res models such as the
HRRR continue to suggest fog development tonight: however, given
slightly drier air advecting in from the west and no signs of
visibility obstruction this afternoon, think this is overdone and
will not be including fog in the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
Short-wave trough evident on 20z/2pm water vapor imagery over
southern Saskatchewan will track southeastward and skirt across
northern Illinois on Sunday. Mid/high clouds will be on the
increase ahead of this feature late tonight, with mostly cloudy
conditions expected across the northern half of the KILX CWA on
Sunday. While the wave will be weakening with time, most models try
to squeeze out some light QPF, mainly further north toward the I-80
corridor. Forecast soundings remain quite dry below 850mb, so do
not think any measurable precip will occur. Have included a chance
for sprinkles north of the Peoria area in closer proximity to the
vort max track. Further south, partly to mostly cloudy but dry
conditions will prevail. Due to the cloud cover and a light SE
flow, temperatures will be held down a bit, with readings in the
lower to middle 40s.
High pressure will take control of the weather on Monday, leading to
sunny skies and slightly warmer temps in the middle to upper 40s.
As the high moves off to the east, a southern stream wave will
approach from the southwest. 12z Mar 7 models are in fairly good
agreement that this feature will brush the SE CWA late Monday night
into Tuesday. GEM is the most bullish with precip spreading further
N/NW, but think this is too aggressive based on dry low-level
profiles. Will increase cloud cover across the E/SE Monday night
into Tuesday and mention a slight chance for rain south of I-70.
Elsewhere around the area, partial sunshine and light southerly
flow will boost highs into the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday.
After a warm/dry day on Wednesday with highs well into the 50s
across the board, yet another southern stream storm system will
approach from the south later in the week. Models do not have a
good handle on this feature yet, with the latest ECMWF spreading
rain into central Illinois as early as Thursday afternoon while
the GFS holds off until Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, the
GEM is completely dry through Friday, as it keeps the system
further southeast across the Ohio River Valley. Given the model
discrepancies, made very few changes to the current forecast. Will
maintain warm/dry weather through Thursday, then will introduce
PoPs Thursday night and Friday. Best rain chances appear to be
along/east of I-55, but will keep them in the chance category
until better model agreement is achieved.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
High pressure building into Illinois from the north will keep
winds light and variable the rest of the night. Light fog could
develop due to boundary layer moisture from melting today.
However, the HRRR continues to keep any dense fog north of our TAF
sites, and no observations in and around our forecast area are
showing even a hint of vis reduction below 10sm. Will keep fog out
of this set of TAFs.
Clouds will increase from the northwest after sunrise as a
shortwave moves across N IL. We could see a few sprinkles reach
the ground near Peoria and possibly Bloomington Sunday afternoon,
but no measurable precip is expected due to dry air in the sub-
cloud layer. Cloud bases should remain VFR through the day at all
our TAF sites. Mid- high clouds will push north into IL tomorrow
as a frontal boundary stalls out just south of our counties.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW H5/H7 RIDGE FLUCTUATING FROM THE WEST COAST ON INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ROCKIES. A CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
TEXAS...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST ON INTO
THE ROCKIES AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH...RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE OUT OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR
POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLANS. GIVEN THIS...THE
EASTERN COLORADO AREA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF RAINSHOWERS AT BEST. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED...A RANGE
OF 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL OCCUR AS 925MB TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +15C UP TO +23C. THE HIGHER POINTS IN THIS RANGE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WORKS OVER REGION...ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
ABOUT +20C AT 925MB BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH
WARMEST AREAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD AND MCK WITH A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AT MOST BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
919 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS MAINE. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
919 PM UPDATE...THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND THE
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPSTREAM THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST
WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE NEAR TERM
MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND HRRR DO TRY TO BRING A COUPLE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT
BRING MUCH EAST OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD SUSPECT GIVEN HOW WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED THE FEATURE APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN NEW BRUNSWICK IS BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THAT IS CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
PRODUCING INSTABILITY TO AROUND H700. THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE
SNOW SHOWERS IS CAUSING VISIBILITY TO DROP AS LOW AS A QUARTER
MILE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AND
CLOUD COVER FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS RATHER TRICKY. EXPECT TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
OF THE COLDER VALLEYS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY MIGHT GET AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOW 40S TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST
REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY GET SOME
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF.... BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO
TRENDS TO BRING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS WITH SOME
MODIFICATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. FVE
COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP A BIT MORE THIS EVENING WITH
SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL AT JONESPORT THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: A LIMITED
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GO OFF-SHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A STRONGER AND WETTER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE U.S. THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO WARM MOIST AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY SINCE SUNSET...IAD DROPPED 5
DEGREES FROM 22-23Z. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW THE TREND TO WEAKEN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 30S TONIGHT.
SIDE NOTE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR
THE MD/PA BORDER WITH RAIN APPROACHING THE REGION. DEWPTS ARE IN
THE LOW 30S AT THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD BE RISING BY SUNRISE IN
THIS AREA BEFORE RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THREFORE ALL RAIN
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
A 40-50KT 850MB JET WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS NEAR 1 INCH WILL MOISTEN THE
COLUMN QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY
BY 10-12Z TUESDAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 15-18Z.
THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MS VALLEY TO
THE TN VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS AREA WILL BE
THE ZONE WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DUE TO A CONFLUENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS LOCATED. A SW FLOW MAY ALSO
ENHANCE UPSLOPE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER
EAST AND ACROSS THE LWX OUTLOOK AREA...ISOLATED FLOODING ON
SWOLLEN STREAMS AND URBAN LOCATIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO
0.25-0.75 INCHES OF PRECIP EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHLANDS AND
EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK HAS MELTED IN
THE RECENT WARM DAYS BUT SNOW IS CONFINED ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL
MD AND NOVA. RIVERS HAVE REACTED TO THE SNOWMELT BUT THEY ARE
STILL WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MOST 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
AROUND AN INCH. AT THIS TIME...A WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S AND L50S DURING THE
AFTN HRS...AS MORE STEADY BATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DRIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME OF THE MORE SOLID OR RELATIVELY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL PUSH
THRU DURING THE LATE TUE AFTN/EVE W/ A GENERAL 0.5-1.0" POSSIBLE
DURING THE MAIN PASSAGE TMRW INTO LATE TUE/EARLY WED. A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER 1
INCH AND AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT THE NAEFS SUGGESTS THAT THE
PWATS SURPASS THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. A MORE POTENT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE WEST-TO-EAST ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT TUE EVE. THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET
WILL PIVOT OVER THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ALONG W/ THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER-JET OVERNIGHT.
UPPER-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT BUCKLES
WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS TO THE
SOUTH. AS SUCH EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO GRADUALLY END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. GIVEN RESIDUAL MOISTURE /COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND SURFACE FRONT/ AND UPPER-JET FORCING...HAVE
RAISED POPS SOME DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE AREA AS THE FRONT/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING SLIP
BRIEFLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COUPLE OF WET DAYS...THURSDAY WILL BE A WELCOME RESPITE
FROM RAIN...ALBEIT BRIEF. NEXT DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS STILL A SLIGHT OUTLIER WITH
COLDER NEAR SFC TEMPS RESULTING FROM STRONGER CAD. HOWEVER...LATEST
RUNS OF THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A WARMING TREND...AND ARE INCHING
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...LEFT MIXED P-TYPE IN FORECAST FOR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AND FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
IN THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION.
AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT AN ALL RAIN EVENT FRIDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AFTER
SATURDAY MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE...SO
OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF HPC/FORECAST/ECMWF/GFS UNTIL A CLEARER
SIGNAL EMERGES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM SW-NE IMPACTING CHO/MRB BY 10-15Z AND
IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN BY 15-18Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND SHOULD STAY MVFR/VFR BUT IF HEAVIER RAIN DOES MOVE
INTO THE TERMINALS THE BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE TUES
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA
TUE NIGHT-WED...BECOMING NLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WED NIGHT. SUB-VFR
W/ LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO IFR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PERSIST UNTIL RAIN ENDS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT ON TUE...AS RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS/WAVES
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT AS A FRONT/LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LWX
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HAS/GMS/MSE
MARINE...HAS/GMS/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. MID DECK REMAINS PRETTY SCATTERED
RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
REPORTING SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT ALSO CHARACTERIZE THIS AS A PERIOD WHERE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW. AS A
RESULT...HAVE SEEN NO REASON TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THE WAVE BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER SUGGEST
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH TO
I-80. UPSTREAM WHERE A FEW OBS IN IL/IA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SNOW
SHOWERS...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
TIED WITH THOSE RADAR RETURNS/REPORTS. WITH THE HI RES MODELS
MAINTAINING THIS WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA...OPTED TO
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS TO WHETHER WHAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW OR LIQUID AS MODEL
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT...SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY KEPT ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO ACCUMULATE.
INSTEAD...WITH LIFT BEING RATHER WEAK...WHAT DOES FALL MAY BE MORE
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SURFACE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO
TODAYS HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY QUIESCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA...CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY.
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MINOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES...THE SIMILARITIES ARE LARGER THAN THE
DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...AND ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A WET
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO GENERATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL TOWARD THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEAL WITH
THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ITS EVOLUTION. CURVATURE DIFFERENCES AS
WELL AS JET BACKBUILDING LOOK TO BE THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...AND BOTH WILL AFFECT HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE SYSTEM
FOR TUESDAY DECIDES TO ADVECT...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. ALLOWED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE POP SPREAD DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER WHERE THEY AGREE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONE...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DEEP ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY VARY FROM +2 TO +5C. ADDITIONALLY...COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST NIL...SO NO UPSLOPE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY
EVEN AS IT PULLS AWAY.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE NET
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SURPASS 50 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE
A...GASP!...ABOVE NORMAL DAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING
RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE
REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH
CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES.
WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS
RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED
MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF
WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING
MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THE WAVE BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER SUGGEST
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH TO
I-80. UPSTREAM WHERE A FEW OBS IN IL/IA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SNOW
SHOWERS...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
TIED WITH THOSE RADAR RETURNS/REPORTS. WITH THE HI RES MODELS
MAINTAINING THIS WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA...OPTED TO
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS TO WHETHER WHAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW OR LIQUID AS MODEL
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT...SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY KEPT ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO ACCUMULATE.
INSTEAD...WITH LIFT BEING RATHER WEAK...WHAT DOES FALL MAY BE MORE
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SURFACE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO
TODAYS HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY QUIESCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA...CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY.
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MINOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES...THE SIMILARITIES ARE LARGER THAN THE
DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...AND ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A WET
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO GENERATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL TOWARD THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEAL WITH
THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ITS EVOLUTION. CURVATURE DIFFERENCES AS
WELL AS JET BACKBUILDING LOOK TO BE THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...AND BOTH WILL AFFECT HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE SYSTEM
FOR TUESDAY DECIDES TO ADVECT...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. ALLOWED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE POP SPREAD DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER WHERE THEY AGREE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONE...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DEEP ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY VARY FROM +2 TO +5C. ADDITIONALLY...COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST NIL...SO NO UPSLOPE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY
EVEN AS IT PULLS AWAY.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE NET
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SURPASS 50 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE
A...GASP!...ABOVE NORMAL DAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING
RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE
REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH
CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES.
WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS
RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED
MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF
WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING
MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES MADE TO EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MID-HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM LOOK TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD
SLOW WARMING BY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
ABOVE 40 DO NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MAY ALSO BRING THE SUPPORT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT BEING RATHER MEAGER...WILL
KEEP THE POPS RATHER LOW.
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
TUESDAY IS COMING IN AS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF MY FORECAST AREA DO STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE TO SEE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TUESDAY.
A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING
RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE
REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH
CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES.
WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS
RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED
MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF
WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING
MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
756 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GRADUAL SNOW AND ICE MELT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON FRIDAY BUT IT IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHES OF BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT WHEN
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDED THE LAST FEW DAYS UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE DESPITE THE SNOW COVER. THE ECMWF AND THE ARW HAVE
SHOWN THE MOST SKILL WITH RESPECT TO MAX TEMPS SINCE SATURDAY UNDER
THIS REGIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE OUTPUT FROM
THESE MODELS. MEANWHILE THE NAM LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS THE BEST.
TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMER OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THERE IS
A NOSE OF WARMER AIR THAT SNEAKS IN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH FROM NRN WI AND UPR MI. THIS IS NOT MUCH OF A FRONT
AND IT DISSIPATES AS IT COMES THROUGH SRN LWR... BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL
NORTH FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OF PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.
RADIATION FOG/STRATUS FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS SNOW
MELT CONTINUES TO ADD MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS AN AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH FROM INDIANA.
THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT FAR SRN LWR MI LATER TONIGHT BUT RH PROGS
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF IT STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45-TO 50 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH PCPN JUST MISSING THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STRAITS THAT COULD PULL SOME OF THAT PCPN
NORTHWARD. WE/VE INCLUDED SLGT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS...IF PCPN DOES DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. A DECENT SHORT WAVE ACCOMPANIES
THAT TROUGH OVER THE STRAITS AND THIS MAY GENERATE LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN ANY PCPN DEVELOPING AT ALL BUT
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FEATURES THERE TO PUT LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
I-94 TAF SITES.
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR AND VISIBILITY ARE UNRESTRICTED.
LAST NIGHT FOG...LOCALLY DENSE DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
96. WINDS WENT CALM BELOW 950 MB IN THAT AREA. TONIGHT WE HAVE A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL NOT IMPACT LOWER MICHIGAN AS IT SHEARS OUT BEFORE
GETTING HERE. HOWEVER BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BELOW 900 MB AND THAT WILL BRING SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS
NORTHWARD INTO THIS AREA. SINCE THE SYSTEM SHEARS OUT BY SUNRISE
WINDS TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND THAT WILL CUT OFF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THE 10 TO 15C INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WILL CAUSE
EITHER DENSE FOG OR STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS AT
LEAST OUR I-94 TAF SITES. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODEL SPREAD THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES HOWEVER I THINK SOME
OF THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE MODELS HAVING ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT
SNOW COVER.
WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS I EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO IMPACT OUR
I-94 TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THAT SPREADS INTO THE I-96 TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ONE SITE BEING WATCHED IS AT HOLT ON
SYCAMORE CREEK. THIS SITE IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER... THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS RIVER
RISES HAVE YET TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BECOMES A
CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO
RAPIDLY ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO ON TUE. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
LOW PRES OVER E CNTRL SASK. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME ISOLD READINGS
AROUND 50. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI TEMPS HAVE REMAINED
CLOSER TO 40.
TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE.
HOWEVER...SW GRADIENT FLOW AND MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS AOA
FREEZING IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND.
TUESDAY...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-
6C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO
925-900 MB...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER ALBEDO IN
THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING. HOWEVER...DOWNWIND
FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S FROM
THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE...ALLOWING ONLY QUICK GLANCING SHOTS OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO -
6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MORE
LIKELY HANG UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE
LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY ACROSS THE LAND AREAS. SHOULD JUST
END UP BEING A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL START OUT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO -9C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ICE HAS OPENED DRAMATICALLY. THIS COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN W-SW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO POSSIBLY RISE TO CLOSE TO +10C MONDAY
/ABOVE +10C IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES/ WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT KIWD AND KCMX ON TUE
WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE
FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOW COVER. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO LOW
BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN
HELPED OUT BY MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. ONE OF THE WORST
PERFORMERS BY FAR HAS BEEN THE GFS RAW SFC TEMPS WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THE SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND THE
HI RES ARW HAVE SHOWN THE BEST SKILL AND THE GFS MOS HAS DONE BETTER
THAN THE RAW GFS DATA.
WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS... WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/WARM PROD AIMED
INTO SRN LWR MI ON TUESDAY. AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMP FCST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY... HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE OF
THE LAST TWO DAYS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S ON MONDAY AND NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES NORTH OF HOLLAND
MUCH COLDER.
IN THE NEAR TERM... THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA NORTH OF I-96 THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEPART
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE BE SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WHERE SNOW
MELT FROM TODAY HAS REFROZE. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUD/FOG FORMATION LATE AT NIGHT THE NEXT COULD NIGHTS AS THE NAM
SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 950 MB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION STREAMING UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...A HEALTHIER LOOKING
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT STAYS TO OUR NOTHEAST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. GENERALLY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK
MOSTLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS. MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY LATE
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IS MEDIUM AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE
FOR CIGS BELOW 2K FEET WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...MKG,
GRR, AND LAN. MVFR CIGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z OR SO.
FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS STAY UP AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO
FAVORED STRATUS IN TAFS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER SOUTH...MVFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE I-94 TAFS AFTER 03Z...BUT KEPT THIS OUT
OF THE TAFS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING WOULD ONLY BECOMES A CONCERN
IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT ACROSS
THE ARRWOHEAD AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NW WI. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
MOVE ACROSS NW WI SO THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVING
FAST THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND NW WI. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIND-MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS REMAINING
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
ZONAL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS/WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN
INTO MID-LATE WEEK WITH THE POSITION OF A SURFACE HIGH/LOW AND HOW
QUICK THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
THE PERIOD WILL ALSO FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS MOST SYSTEMS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER FORTIES TO NEAR
FIFTY...THEN COOL SOME ON SATURDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AN OFF LAKE
WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND
THE LAKE COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND
WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 22 44 31 / 20 0 0 10
INL 34 20 44 27 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 37 21 48 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 37 22 46 30 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 39 23 46 32 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
319 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVING
FAST THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND NW WI. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIND-MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS REMAINING
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
ZONAL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS/WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN
INTO MID-LATE WEEK WITH THE POSITION OF A SURFACE HIGH/LOW AND HOW
QUICK THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
THE PERIOD WILL ALSO FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS MOST SYSTEMS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER FORTIES TO NEAR
FIFTY...THEN COOL SOME ON SATURDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AN OFF LAKE
WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND
THE LAKE COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND
WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 22 44 31 / 40 0 0 10
INL 34 20 44 27 / 20 10 0 10
BRD 37 21 48 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 37 22 46 30 / 30 0 0 0
ASX 39 23 46 32 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1200 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
UPDATED FOR NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING ARE THE MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER IN THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT ROLLED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE WAVE...HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE RISEN AND
ALLOWED FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO DEVELOP AND END THE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD. THERE ARE STILL VERY WEAK ECHOES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY DUE TO THE LINGER
EFFECTS OF THE S/W AND A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WEAK
CAA ALOFT AND A DECENT NWLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE.
THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE AND PRECEDING CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER N-CENTRAL MN
TONIGHT AND SPREAD E/SEWD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH TRAILING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI INTO LATE SUN MORNING. THE OVERALL FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH MODEST WAA
AND A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL FGEN HELPING THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW. THE HIGHER AMTS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA TO PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS SOME WEAK FEATURES MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM STAYING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SHIFT SOUTH TO BRING SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE NORTH. A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SKIMMING ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SMALL POPS GOING FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS A DECENT SLUG OF WARM AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AND
HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENT. IN
FACT...IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME SNOW COVER GOING INTO THIS EVENT THAT
WOULD KEEP SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES DOWN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
A ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE REACHING INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 50 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SNOWPACK MAY TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT HIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN
THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE EAST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING COLD LAKE AIR INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AND COOLING THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND
WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 18 38 22 44 / 40 30 0 0
INL 14 34 20 44 / 60 20 10 0
BRD 20 38 22 48 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 18 37 21 45 / 30 30 0 0
ASX 20 39 23 46 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
700 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Rain expanding quickly to the north across southern Missouri at
this time. Latest RAP guidance shows precipitation shield
expanding to at least the I-70 corridor if not even further north
into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Have increased
POPs and trended forecast based on latest radar and RAP data.
Looks like a wet overnight and early Tuesday morning for a good
portion of the forecast area. At least its not snow.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
An upper level trough with embedded shortwaves over the Plains will
approach our area tonight. A south-southwesterly low level jet will
bring low level warm air advection along with increasing moisture to
southeast MO and southern IL tonight. The models were also
depicting some upper level divergence this afternoon and tonight
over much of our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough
and in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region. A surface low will move northeastward into
southern AR by 12z Tuesday with a rain shield spreading northward
into southeast MO south of I-70 this evening, then through southwest
IL and parts of central MO late tonight. The rain will not likely
get any further northwest of a line extending from COU to PPQ.
There may be some fog tonight, mainly across areas of IL north and
east of STL where there is melting snow cover before the rain moves
in.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Rain will continue Tuesday, particularly during the morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly from STL south and east, north
and northwest of the surface low moving northeastward through
western TN and into Kentucky by 00z Wednesday. The rain should
shift east-southeast of our forecast area by early Tuesday evening.
The low level clouds and precipitation will limit daytime heating
and lead to cooler temperatures across southeast MO and southwest
IL on Tuesday, with above normal temperatures continuing across
central and northeast MO. Warmer temperatures can be expected on
Wednesday with weak surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes
region southwest into MO with little cloud cover and plenty of solar
insolation expected. Another round of rain is expected for the end
of the work week ahead of an upper level low over the southern
Plains and north/northwest of another surface low which will move
northward from the Gulf Coast region, then northeastward through the
TN and OH Valley regions Friday night into Saturday. The models
were a little slower bringing rain northward into our area,
particularly the GFS. Tried to go with the compromise solution of
the ECMWF model which is quicker than the GFS, but not as fast as
the NAM with regards to the timing of the rain. Rain may spread
northward into parts of southeast MO Thursday afternoon, then move
through southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly southeast of STL
Thursday night through Friday night. The rain should shift
east-southeast of our forecast area by Saturday with slightly cooler
air moving into the region as an upper level trough moves through
the Great Lakes area and a surface ridge moves southeastward
through the region this weekend. The GFS model is a little cooler
than the ECMWF model due to its deeper upper level trough and slower
movement of the upper level trough as it closes off as it moves
southeastward through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Area of precip will continue to move nwd tonight. Expect precip to
reach COU/SUS/CPS around 06z. Precip shud be light thru most of
the night with heavier precip moving in closer to sunrise. Light
winds thru the period.
Specifics for KSTL: RA expected to spread nwd and reach terminal
around 06z. Cigs shud drop closer to sunrise and persist thru the
morning and into the afternoon. Cigs may clear out during the
afternoon, but am more uncertain. Potential exists for FG
development Tues night if clouds clear out of the region.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
SUNSHINE AS THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ALOFT THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKER TODAY ALONG WITH
WINDS ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE QUITE AS BREEZY. SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX TO AROUND 800MB TODAY AND MIXING WINDS WERE
WESTERLY...SO DO ANTICIPATE HIGHS NEAR 60. GETTING A COOLER START
TO THE DAY TODAY AND THIS GIVES A LITTLE PAUSE THAT HIGHS MAY NOT
QUITE BE AS WARM AS FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO COOL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HAS MY BIAS...SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST HIGHS IN PLACE. HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG MIXING WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. DID LOWER VALUES TO GET TO AROUUND 20 PERCENT
OVER CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT FALL AS LOW AS THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO WEAKER MIXING AND WINDS. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
RAP SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NE MT EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WAS GENERATING A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER
THE REGION. ECHOES WERE VERY LIGHT...SO AT MOST THEY WERE
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL
DRY OUT UNDER NW FLOW TODAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIXING WILL BE CLOSE TO 700 MB
TODAY BASED ON RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
RECENT TEMPERATURES WELL. WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NW FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
NW FLOW TO CONTINUE MON AND MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY SO NO
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. UNDER A MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WILL
BE TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV AND MET FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDING TRENDS. RESULT
WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS ALOFT WERE
STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 30S. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...AS 500-MB RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE ONLY ONE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY WARM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
NOT ONLY DOES THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
FROPA TIMING LOOKS LIKE IT MAY SEE FROM PREFRONTAL WARMING AS
WELL. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THAT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVED SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GET A
GOOD READ ON THAT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COMPLETION OF FROPA...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BEING THE POST
FRONTAL TRANSITION DAY BUT...SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEARS VERY
COLD...AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
AREAS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS. SOUTHWEST FLOWE SETS UP
OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIPS EASTWARD...OPENING THE DOOR TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT
STILL TOO FAR OUT PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT POTENTIAL. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 034/065 036/068 040/071 044/067 039/062 036/067
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
LVM 057 032/060 036/064 041/070 045/063 038/061 035/063
0/U 00/N 00/N 01/B 13/W 21/B 11/B
HDN 062 031/067 033/071 036/072 039/068 038/065 033/069
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
MLS 059 031/062 033/067 036/069 040/065 036/060 032/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/U
4BQ 058 029/061 031/067 034/073 038/066 036/061 030/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
BHK 056 028/059 030/064 033/069 037/063 033/056 028/060
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
SHR 057 028/061 029/065 034/072 038/065 036/063 030/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
RAP SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NE MT EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WAS GENERATING A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER
THE REGION. ECHOES WERE VERY LIGHT...SO AT MOST THEY WERE
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL
DRY OUT UNDER NW FLOW TODAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIXING WILL BE CLOSE TO 700 MB
TODAY BASED ON RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
RECENT TEMPERATURES WELL. WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NW FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
NW FLOW TO CONTINUE MON AND MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY SO NO
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. UNDER A MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WILL
BE TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV AND MET FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDING TRENDS. RESULT
WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS ALOFT WERE
STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 30S. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...AS 500-MB RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE ONLY ONE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY WARM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
NOT ONLY DOES THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
FROPA TIMING LOOKS LIKE IT MAY SEE FROM PREFRONTAL WARMING AS
WELL. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THAT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVED SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GET A
GOOD READ ON THAT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COMPLETION OF FROPA...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BEING THE POST
FRONTAL TRANSITION DAY BUT...SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
COLD...AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
AREAS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIPS EASTWARD...OPENING THE DOOR TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT
POTENTIAL. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 034/065 036/068 040/071 044/067 039/062 036/067
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
LVM 057 032/060 036/064 041/070 045/063 038/061 035/063
0/U 00/N 00/N 01/B 13/W 21/B 11/B
HDN 062 031/067 033/071 036/072 039/068 038/065 033/069
0/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
MLS 059 031/062 033/067 036/069 040/065 036/060 032/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/U
4BQ 058 029/061 031/067 034/073 038/066 036/061 030/064
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
BHK 056 028/059 030/064 033/069 037/063 033/056 028/060
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
SHR 057 028/061 029/065 034/072 038/065 036/063 030/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WSR88D IS SHOWING THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE SEGMENT IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY WELL.
THIS PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE COMPARES NICELY TO THE THE 06
UTC RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF AND 16 UTC HRRR RUN. THE SEAS BREEZE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE EAST FACING
BEACHES...BUT THE SOUTH FACING BEACH SEGMENT IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
WILL PROPAGATE APPROXIMATELY 20 TO 25 MILES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES APPEAR TO HAVE TOPPED
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE SUNRISE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. NO THREAT OF FOG IS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 15 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A
WESTERLY FLOW TO A BUILDING RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE BOARD
TUESDAY AS THE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CWA
GETS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AS THE WEAK ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE AND WEST WITH SUBTLE AND LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WARM AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE
WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF A WEAKLY
FORCED NATURE ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. A LETHARGIC AND
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BASICALLY STALLS AND WEAKENS AS
A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WEAK PERIODS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON POPS IS LOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO
THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE I HAVE
JOGGED THE HIGHEST POPS TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY VALUES RESIDE PRIMARILY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED WARMING
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE TO MATCH
ADJACENT OFFICES BETTER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
BECOMING BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP. MONDAY
MORNING...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ONLY
MID-CLOUD CEILINGS ARE THE WORST CASE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY FOG AT
BAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL MVFR WITH RAINFALL TUE AND WED WITH
PERIODS OF IFR TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS THURSDAY
WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THU AND FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 2 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
MONDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACQUIRES MORE DEFINITION LATER
IN THE DAY. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH A GOOD SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MONDAY. FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WINDS TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND TEN KNOTS.
THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NEAR BERMUDA WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET MONDAY
INCREASING TO 1-3 FEET LATER TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL COMMENCE AND WIND
SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. BENIGN SEAS WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD
CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY TO POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT VALUES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOW SLIDING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
LOOKING AHEAD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RISING MOTION LEADING TO SCT CLOUDS SUNDAY
AND SCT/BKN CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A DRY/MILDER FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLY LINGERING. WITH THAT...HAVE REMOVED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO BACKED
OFF ON CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FALLEN AT ANY OF
THE OBSERVING SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT
TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS
NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
SKY CONDITION WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR TO SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500FT AND
7000FT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR KBIS/KJMS. WEST WINDS AVERAGING 10KT
SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUAL CLIMB EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...TO AND ABOVE NORMALS IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING SLOWLY AS WE MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5-15 MPH.
RAISED MINS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON PRECIP...WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS IN NE OH/NW PA WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN A MOIST BIAS IN
THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THESE ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS
7-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ON TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC
SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING BETTER AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
A LESS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SKIES STARTING OFF MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE ERIE IN
EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAMDNG. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT HOPING
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR PRIMARILY
SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN INVERSION AND MELTING SNOW COMBINATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SKIRT BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THESE DAILY WARM UPS WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND MELT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF THE SNOW OVER THE AREA...BUT AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS ICY AT TIMES. RIVERS
WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODEST RISE WITH THE INCREASED RUNOFF...WHICH
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LONG TERM MODELS.
FORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY SO THESE DIFFERENCES
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS AT
BEST. ON THURSDAY WITH THE NE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE LOCATIONS LIKE
KERI WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO OCCUR. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A
LOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS QUITE A
BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY. WILL STICK WITH THAT
SCENARIO FOR NOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT FOR THE FIRST 50S
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO GO
HIGHER EVENTUALLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. LINGERING PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF MVFR SNOW SHOWER AROUND KERI BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN
MOST AREAS WITH CEILINGS BKN035-BKN045 FOR A WHILE THROUGH EARLY/MID
MORNING SUNDAY. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LOWER CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING BUT THERE DOES NOT SEEM MUCH CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
LAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1133 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST RUC..HRRR AND RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE ANTICIPATED PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS A RESULT
OF THAT AND LACK OF ANY REPORTS IN UPSTREAM OBS OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND SO FAR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 30S...40S AND 50S
THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO CWA TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES AND
SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. LOW LEVEL
WAA /SURFACE TO 900HPA/ AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH FOR P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. BUT...IF
THERE IS AN AREA OF THE CWA THAT STANDS A CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OR SNOW...IT`S ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM MOBRIDGE TO FAULKTON TO MILLER. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE
BEING ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CONFIDENCE OF
SEEING MIXED P-TYPES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES OR
SPECIAL STATEMENTS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH DOSE OF
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD END UP PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
RADIATION FOG TOWARD MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH JET OF SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP. CONTINUED WARMING CONDITIONS EACH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL FOLLOWING AIRMASS MODERATION APPROACH AND
NO NEW COLD SURGES NOTED IN 12Z MODELS. SOMETHING TO KEEP A FIRE
WEATHER EYE ON...THOUGH...WILL BE RH VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS EACH
OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRY LOW LEVELS AND
WARM TEMPS BROUGHT RH`S DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR A BRIEF
TIME ON FRIDAY. SUSPECT THAT SOMETHING SIMILAR WILL END UP
HAPPENING ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. OFFICES
CONTINUE A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH IS WARMER THAN SUPERBLEND. THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE CURRENT LACK OF SOIL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WARM DRY CONDITIONS MAY RAISE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION...MAINLY AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY BEFORE EXITING AROUND
10Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
UPDATE...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER
THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. RAIN SHOULD PUSH INTO MEMPHIS BY 5-6 PM.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE. WILL ONLY UPDATE TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND OTHER
LOCATIONS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND NOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE THIS AREA TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS
APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
BY THIS EVENING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO
TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN.
MVFR CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER
WHICH MORE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER
THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. RAIN SHOULD PUSH INTO MEMPHIS BY 5-6 PM.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE. WILL ONLY UPDATE TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND OTHER
LOCATIONS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND NOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE THIS AREA TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS
APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD
BE EVEN LOWER AT MEM...JBR AND MKL...AFTER 03Z MONDAY BUT DO NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR.
TVT
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
607 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD
BE EVEN LOWER AT MEM...JBR AND MKL...AFTER 03Z MONDAY BUT DO NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS CLOUD DECKS LOWER AND RAINFALL INCREASES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect poor flight conditions through much of the TAF forecast period
across West Central Texas. Going with IFR ceilings at all the
terminals tonight and Monday morning, improving to MVFR by 17Z.
Expect some patchy fog with visibilities mainly between 3 and 5
miles. Also, showers will continue across much of the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An upper shortwave moving northeast across West Texas this afternoon
was bringing light showers...mainly along and north of Big Lake...
San Angelo...Brownwood line. The showers will come to an end tonight
as the the upper shortwave brings subsidence in its wake. The short
range HRRR and NAM models depict the current showers the best, indicating
them to gradually weaken and dissipate over the Big Country this
evening. Have a 50 percent chance of showers over the Big Country
this evening, with a slight chance to the south. A moist boundary
layer and wet vegetation will promote fog formation tonight, but
with low and mid level clouds in place, dense fog is not expected.
Models indicate clearing skies Tuesday as dry mid level air moves in
from the west. Most areas will see partly cloudy skies by mid
afternoon. Highs are expected in the lower and mid 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
The rest of the week into next weekend looks pleasant for our
area, with less cloud cover and near seasonal temperatures.
Upper trough extending from eastern Kansas southwest across Texas
into Mexico will slowly weaken through Wednesday, with a weak closed
low developing over north-central or northwest Texas on Thursday.
An upstream shortwave trough is progged to dive south across the
Great Basin, forming a closed low over northwest Mexico on Friday.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF take the low south across western Mexico, to
just south of the Baja Peninsula next weekend. This will help to
maintain a weak upper trough from Missouri southwest across Texas
and Mexico. Despite the position of the trough, a lack of
sufficient moisture and weak lift will result in minimal rain
chances for our area. With a lack of cold air intrusions or
significant warmups, temperatures will be close to normal for this
time in March. May see a backdoor cold frontal passage Saturday
night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 43 64 43 69 43 / 50 10 5 10 5
San Angelo 45 67 40 71 42 / 20 10 5 10 5
Junction 48 65 42 70 42 / 20 10 10 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST
RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL
IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE
SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT
THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH.
ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING.
MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO
15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE
IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME
DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS
WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWMELT TODAY
ADDING MOISTURE TO THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
LIGHTER/CALM WINDS WILL RESIDE. HAVE ADDED SOME 5SM BR AT BOTH
KLSE/KRST TAF SITES FROM 09-14Z...BUT FEEL SOME LOCALLY DENSER FOG
MAY BE SEEN SOUTH OF THE SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
709 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST
RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL
IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE
SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT
THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH.
ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING.
MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO
15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE
IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME
DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS
WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THROUGH 08.14Z...AND THEN A 6 TO 10K DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 08.16Z. SKIES WILL THEN BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
BY 08.15Z...AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 09.09Z. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST
RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL
IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE
SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT
THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH.
ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING.
MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO
15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE
IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME
DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS
WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS IA SUN MORNING.
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS AND QG CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WILL
LEAD THE FEATURE IN...WITH GOOD SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AIDING IN
THE UPWARD MOTION. THE BULK OF ALL THIS LIFT THOUGH IS ACROSS
IA...WHERE RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS ALSO PLACE THE DEEPEST
SATURATION. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. AS FOR
KRST/KLSE...THINK FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY...AND NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
CIGS COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS STILL POINT
TO AN INCREASE IN LOW SATURATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z. RAP HAS STARTED TO BACKOFF
THOUGH...WITH THE HRRR ALSO KEEPING ANY LOW CIGS TO THE SOUTH OR FAR
NORTH. SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST
SATELLITE/SFC OBS...BUT TRAJECTORIES WOULD LIKELY KEEP THESE NORTH
OF KRST/KLSE. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY...GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
FOR NOW. UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED IF MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE LIKELY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
...SPOTTY EVENING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SOME
EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
IN COLORADO YET...BUT VERY CLOSE...OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
NEW MEXICO...JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER...SOUTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND EXPANDING A
LITTLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR STILL WANTS
TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS INTO BACA AND
PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES COUNTY THIS EVENING. IT HAS
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. LAST NIGHT`S 4 KM NSSL WRF
DEPICTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. SO...IN ADDITION TO SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...HAVE ALSO SPREAD ISOLATED POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH BUT THAT`S WHY THE POPS ARE SO LOW. SHOWERS WILL FALL AS
SNOW ABOVE 9000 TO 10000 FEET WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR 2
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD EVEN BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING SO WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
FOR THAT AREA.
EVERYTHING SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...LATE IN
THE DAY...WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS POP UP IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. READINGS
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...BOTH AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GREAT
BASIN SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PASSING WEAK
TROUGH SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SFC-H7 UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER TROUGH
DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG OR COLD...HOWEVER...WITH H5 TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND -20C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGED BETWEEN 6-8C THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...COULD STILL
SEE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.
A MILD AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY STABLE/DRY SO MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
WEDNESDAY).
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. APPLYING A SIMILAR BIAS TO
ADVERTISED H85 TEMPS WOULD BRING HIGHS AROUND 70 TO MOST OF THE
CWA. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LESS MIXING THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE...BUT TREND IS THERE AND CONFIDENCE IS IN HIGHS AT LEAST
AS WARM AS MONDAY IF NOT WARMER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE TROUGH AND SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER WAA AND BETTER MIXING
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DURING THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE ON
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH DAYS WITH BIAS
CORRECTION SUPPORTING MID 70S LIKELY IN OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING GLD AND THERE IS SOME
WIND SHEAR SHOWING UP AS AS A SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
45KTS A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AGL WHILE SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS HAVE A
VARIABLE GUSTINESS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KTS. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY 09Z AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT MCK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING WE SHOULD SEE TD VALUES DROP INTO THE
20S AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TD
RECOVERY THURSDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL LIMIT WINDS TO WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EVEN IF
WE WERE TO MIX A LITTLE DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR RED FLAG WARNING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JSL
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING GLD AND THERE IS SOME
WIND SHEAR SHOWING UP AS AS A SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
45KTS A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AGL WHILE SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS HAVE A
VARIABLE GUSTINESS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KTS. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY 09Z AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT MCK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW H5/H7 RIDGE FLUCTUATING FROM THE WEST COAST ON INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ROCKIES. A CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
TEXAS...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST ON INTO
THE ROCKIES AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH...RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE OUT OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR
POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLANS. GIVEN THIS...THE
EASTERN COLORADO AREA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF RAINSHOWERS AT BEST. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED...A RANGE
OF 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL OCCUR AS 925MB TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +15C UP TO +23C. THE HIGHER POINTS IN THIS RANGE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WORKS OVER REGION...ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
ABOUT +20C AT 925MB BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH
WARMEST AREAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING GLD AND THERE IS SOME
WIND SHEAR SHOWING UP AS AS A SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
45KTS A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET AGL WHILE SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS HAVE A
VARIABLE GUSTINESS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KTS. THIS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY 09Z AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT MCK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
444 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA W/LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MAINE. ALOFT, A WEAK IMPULSE
WAS AIDING TO TRIGGER THE ACTIVITY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM12
AND RAP SHOW THIS SNOW MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION W/SOME CLEARING BACK ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. QUITE A RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS LOW LYING AREAS HAD DROPPED DOWN
BELOW 0F SUCH AS MASARDIS AND ESTCOURT STATION WHILE OTHER AREAS
WERE AVERAGING IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS(N & W) AND MID 20S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST THANKS IN PART TO CLOUD COVER. WEAK HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE E TODAY
AND ANY RIDGING PULLING E.
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY W/LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC. THE NAM & GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
COLUMN TO MOISTEN THROUGH 700MBS. A 50 KT JET FROM 850-700MBS PER
THE 00Z UA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE THE
DAYCREW`S SETUP OF 60% POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA
W/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY NORTH OF CAR AND
PQI. SOUTH OF CAR-PQI, PRECIP CHANCES DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY W/NO
MENTION OF PRECIP S OF THE HUL-MLT REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHALLENGE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO PRECIP
AND CLOUDS. THE WARM AIR ALOFT COULD BE IMPEDED FOR A FEW HRS
UNTIL THE FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS N OF THE BORDER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE TALKING MAXES COULD BE HIT LATE IN THE DAY W/LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CROWN WHILE FROM HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET ON
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TEMPS WARM NICELY DUE TO
THIS REGION BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR(UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S).
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOO FAR TONIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER THE WARM SECTOR. AS A MATTER OF FACT, READINGS
WILL RISE AFTER A WHILE LATER THIS EVENING ALL THE WAY TO THE
MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. THE WARMING LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS COOLING IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE NAM, GFS AND CANADIAN GEM.
THEREFORE, A COOLDOWN BY DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES W/TEMPS ACROSS THE N AND W AOB 32F AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W/THE COLD
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/THE HELP OF STRONG VORTICITY MAX
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY GET SOME
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF.... BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO
TRENDS TO BRING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS WITH SOME
MODIFICATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THEN MVFR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN THE TERMIMALS. KFVE COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR W/SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. KBGR AND KBHB
WILL SEE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THERE IS A RISK OF SOME
LOW CLOUDS(1500 FOOT DECK) AND MVFR LATER TONIGHT W/A SSW WIND.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE TREND
CURRENTLY IN THE DATABASE SHOWING SSW WINDS COMING UP TO 15 TO 20
KT THIS EVENING W/GUST POTENTIAL TO 25 KTS. THE OUTER WATERS WILL
SEE THE BEST SHOT FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS. A 45-50 JET ABOVE 5K FT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
CROSSING OF THE WINDS WHICH COULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE
THE BLYR.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: A LIMITED
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GO OFF-SHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DRAG A WARM FRONT
ACROSS MAINE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1200 AM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ECHOES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. METAR AT MLT
SHOWING SOME LIGHT MIST(BR) MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
THE LATEST HRRR 3KM AND WRF DID A FINE JOB IN PICKING UP ON THE
THIS ACTIVITY. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOWED FORECAST CAPES OF 60 TO
70 JOULES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE AND WHERE THE ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS. ADDED SOME CHANCE
POPS(30-405) FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE(20%) ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. LLVL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MID
LEVEL FORCING WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. CURRENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE DOING WELL
ATTM.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AND CLOUD COVER
FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS
RATHER TRICKY. EXPECT TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE
COLDER VALLEYS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE WARM FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
MIGHT GET AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE LOW 40S TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY GET SOME
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF.... BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO
TRENDS TO BRING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS WITH SOME
MODIFICATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. FVE
COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1200 AM UPDATE...DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN
BACK BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE COMING DOWN AS WELL. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: A LIMITED
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GO OFF-SHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE ON MOST
DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONUS. ACROSS UPPER MI...THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. EVEN ON THE COOLER DAYS...
TEMPS WILL BE NO LOWER THAN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAR. JUST BEYOND
THIS FCST PERIOD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A RETURN OF AN
AMPLIFIED FAR WRN NAMERICA RIDGE. THIS WILL AGAIN FORCE INCREASED
ERN NAMERICA TROFFING AND A RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. FARTHER OUT...GEM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
FAVOR BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO LATE MONTH. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE`VE
TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD PATTERN TO A WARM ONE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER (BLO NORMAL PCPN) WILL PROBABLY PERSIST NEXT WEEK AS
WELL DESPITE GOING BACK TO A COLD PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR (MUCH OF WI INTO PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AT 25 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL PCPN
SINCE JAN 1). THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN MAY OCCUR LATE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A COLDER PATTERN...BUT EVEN THAT PCPN DOESN`T LOOK
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
BEGINNING WED...FOLLOWING COLD FROPA TODAY...WED WILL BE A DRY/MUCH
COOLER DAY...COOLEST ACROSS THE N AND E WITH GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID 30S WILL BE THE RULE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONE ITEM OF POSSIBLE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO START THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY W OF UPPER MI...CLOSER
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NCNTRL MN AT 12Z WED.
WED NIGHT/THU...WAA DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES
RIDGE SHIFTING E TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE WAA/RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR COLUMN
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR N OF UPPER
MI IN ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WARMING
THU...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...EVEN SHALLOW MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST TO RISE TOWARD 50F. COOLEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS OFF THE
ICY WATERS.
FRI/SAT...SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE NE PACIFIC INTO BC THU IS
FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT IN RESPONSE TO BRIEF RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM IN WRN CANADA. JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE...WEAKER ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU
NIGHT/FRI. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELD UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT
WOULD SEEM BETTER POTENTIAL OF PCPN WILL OCCUR N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THUS N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -RA TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI. MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR FRI
NIGHT AS MAIN WAVE AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS REACH 140M WITH MAX PASSING ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN
DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SCHC/CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN CHANGING TO
-SHSN APPEAR WARRANTED FRI NIGHT/SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO MAX HEIGHT FALLS. IT WILL TURN
NOTABLY COOLER FOR SAT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C UNDER
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LWR 30S TO AROUND 40F...
WARMEST SCNTRL.
WAA QUICKLY KICKS IN AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN UNDER A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME WHICH BRINGS THE WRN CANADIAN RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. BY SUN MORNING...850MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL BE
BACK UP TO 0C E TO 3C W...AND THEN 3 TO 8C BY SUN EVENING UNDER
STRENGTHENING S TO SW WINDS. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WELL N OF HERE...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. TEMPS SUN WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.
MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR A FEW DAYS...
SEVERAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 10 TO 15C MON.
HOWEVER...TEMP FCST WILL HINGE ON SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATE ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING WHILE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN EARLY HIGHS IN
THE 40S WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING. GFS/ECMWF HAVEN`T BEEN CONSISENT ON
FRONTAL TIMING WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE INTO
THE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE IS A TREND FOR A FASTER FROPA WITH THE
00Z RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH AN AVERAGING OF RECENT RUNS
WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS MOSTLY MID 40S TO MID 50S. SAME METHODOLOGY
GOES FOR POPS WHICH WILL BE THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. COLDER AIR
ARRIVING AFTER FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD
AIR DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE
RESULTS IN A DOWNSTREAM TAP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN
TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE
SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
343 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE...ALLOWING ONLY QUICK GLANCING SHOTS OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO -
6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MORE
LIKELY HANG UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE
LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY ACROSS THE LAND AREAS. SHOULD JUST
END UP BEING A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL START OUT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO -9C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ICE HAS OPENED DRAMATICALLY. THIS COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN W-SW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO POSSIBLY RISE TO CLOSE TO +10C MONDAY
/ABOVE +10C IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES/ WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE
SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO ON TUE. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
LOW PRES OVER E CNTRL SASK. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME ISOLD READINGS
AROUND 50. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI TEMPS HAVE REMAINED
CLOSER TO 40.
TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE.
HOWEVER...SW GRADIENT FLOW AND MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS AOA
FREEZING IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND.
TUESDAY...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-
6C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO
925-900 MB...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER ALBEDO IN
THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING. HOWEVER...DOWNWIND
FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S FROM
THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE...ALLOWING ONLY QUICK GLANCING SHOTS OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO -
6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MORE
LIKELY HANG UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE
LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY ACROSS THE LAND AREAS. SHOULD JUST
END UP BEING A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL START OUT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO -9C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ICE HAS OPENED DRAMATICALLY. THIS COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN W-SW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO POSSIBLY RISE TO CLOSE TO +10C MONDAY
/ABOVE +10C IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES/ WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE
SFC. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE
FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
450 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE ON PRECIP COVERAGE...AMOUNTS AND IT ANY FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
I WILL SAY THE FORECAST IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD AS TRYING TO NARROW
DOWN ANY LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS VERY TOUGH.
AS OF 4 AM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR LLQ WITH TWO
NOTICEABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST IS JUST N OF I-20
WHICH DEFINES THE LOWER 60 DEWPTS AND THE OTHER DOWN AROUND BTR TO
NEW WHICH SEPARATES THE MID/UPPER 60 DEWPTS. THIS STRUCTURE IS
PROMOTING A STRONG WAA REGIME WITH HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST OFF
THE SFC. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A LARGE PRECIP AREA OVER THE N HALF
WITH A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIP IN THE SW. THIS AREA IN THE SW
IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE CHALLENGE COMES IN HOW ALL THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO MID MORNING AND THEN WHAT WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND CONVERGENCE WILL WANE SUBSTANTIALLY BY 14-15 AS THE BETTER
MID/UPPER SUPPORT LIFT OUT. HI-RES GUID AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR TERM
DATA SHOW THIS AND ALL SHOW THE CURRENT PRECIP CONFIGURATION
BREAKING DOWN WITH A REALLY DIFFUSE/UNORGANIZED LOOK TO THINGS BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC
INFLUENCES ON PRECIP WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THIS MORNING
AND WHAT WILL DRIVE THINGS WILL BE THERMODYNAMIC/MESO-SCALE
INFLUENCES. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE LARGE
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WITH OUR REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD.
EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS TIME ARE FOR A CONVERGENT BAND OR TWO OF
CONVECTION TO GET GOING OVER SE LA AND SPREAD N/NE INTO THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA. EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH LOOKS TO LINGER INTO PART OF THE EVENING.
AS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE LOW AS
MORE NEG FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT. THE ONLY FEW POSITIVES ARE MID 60S
DEWPTS AND SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE OF 500-1200 J/KG. THIS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS
AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 5-12 KFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...THE NEGATIVES
ARE MORE NUMEROUS. THE MAIN THING IS THE CORE OF THE LIFT IS EXITING
THE AREA...LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850-500 MB WINDS ARE ERRATIC WITH
SOME (VEER/BACK/VEER) FLOW WHICH IS DISRUPTIVE TO UPDRAFTS...MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR EARLY MAR WITH AN OVERALL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LIMITED
OUTLOOK AS THE INSTABILITY EXPECTATIONS AND APPEARANCE OF SOME
DECENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM THE HRRR FIT THE SITUATION.
MORE QUESTION MARKS FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF WED. THE LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR MORE OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. I TRENDED POPS/WX TO
REFLECT THIS. BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS
ACTIVITY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON LINGERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST OVER THE SE HALF AS
REPETITIVE STORMS COULD BE ADDING UP THE TOTALS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON WED INTO WED NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE NEXT SOLID
CHUCK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACH THE REGION. THE RESPONSE WILL
BE INCREASING WAA AND OVERALL PRECIP AS A SFC INVERTED TROUGH GETS
ORGANIZED AND THEN A SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THAT FEATURE. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT BY WED EVENING WITH
SOME HEAVY PRECIP ELEMENTS TAKING SHAPE AS DEEP MOISTURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. /CME/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COME THURSDAY MORNING A VERY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER MOST OF AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE GREATER RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. PWS WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST
OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DECREASING POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING OCCUR OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING WITH
A TREND TOWARD MVFR AS THE AREA WARMS LATER THIS MORNING. I WILL
TIME THE PRECIP IN/OUT THIS MORNING AND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BE MORE
GENERAL WITH THINGS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH A STALLING SFC BOUNDARY
AROUND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING.
/CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 75 59 69 61 / 98 97 73 79
MERIDIAN 76 62 74 62 / 92 100 77 80
VICKSBURG 72 55 67 59 / 86 69 49 75
HATTIESBURG 76 62 77 64 / 93 88 79 81
NATCHEZ 74 57 67 59 / 93 81 64 80
GREENVILLE 69 51 64 56 / 50 31 25 59
GREENWOOD 70 54 67 58 / 91 69 42 65
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/22/CME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
306 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
DRY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 600 MB OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CLOSE TO 700 MB OVER THE E. STILL LOOKING
FOR NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES AT KBIL. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE HIGHER
AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KBIL W. EXPECTING A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO AROUND +12 DEGREES C.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON WED AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
IT. A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT. ENERGY
IN THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. WED WILL REMAIN DRY AND THEN
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WED
NIGHT. GFS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND...SO HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z...THEN HIGHER POPS AFTER 06Z. BROUGHT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR E AS GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THUNDER. EXPECTING JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AS THE
ENSEMBLES KEPT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH.
WED WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDING TRENDS AND THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. KBIL AND KMLS WILL
HAVE NEAR-RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL BE WINDY W OF KBIL ON WED DUE TO
THE LEE TROUGH. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MIXED...AND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH EXTENDED
MODELS REMAINING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
IS NOT TOO STRONG. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD FRIDAY...AND BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND PAVES THE WAY FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LEE SIDE
TROFFING WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM...SETTING UP GUSTY
WINDS...WHICH MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN THAN THE PRECIP.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...DROPPING DAY
TIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TO START THE
PERIOD...AND MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 041/072 042/062 039/064 037/070 046/072 038/051
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 11/B 32/W
LVM 064 042/068 043/058 037/062 037/066 048/073 036/052
0/U 00/N 43/W 21/B 00/B 11/B 32/W
HDN 069 036/073 038/063 037/066 036/071 040/072 037/054
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 32/W
MLS 064 036/071 038/060 038/062 036/069 044/070 037/054
0/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 00/U 01/B 21/B
4BQ 065 034/071 036/061 036/063 033/070 038/071 036/053
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 00/U 00/B 22/W
BHK 062 033/068 035/058 035/060 032/065 037/068 034/048
0/U 00/U 01/B 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B
SHR 063 034/067 036/060 037/062 031/067 040/071 037/052
0/U 00/U 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
243 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
GENERALLY THIS QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG POLAR
JET IN SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE RAP HAS BEEN REPRESENTING THIS
FEATURE WELL HOWEVER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD IT
TOO WEAK AND TOO SLOW. USING THE RAP SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW CLOUDS GENERATED BY THIS WAVE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN THE PAST HOUR AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPED IN THE COLUMBUS-NORFOLK AREAS. THIS WAVE ALSO BRINGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT TODAY...HOWEVER WE MAINLY EXPECT THIS TO
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. ACTUALLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE BRIEFLY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. 850 MB AIR
ALSO INCREASES A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH GOOD MIXING ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE LOWER 70S PREDICTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORDS SEEM SAFE ALTHOUGH THE RECORD HIGH IN
NORFOLK ON WEDNESDAY OF 74 MAY BE THREATENED. THESE ARE GOOD
PATTERNS TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OF
WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS
BUT VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK AND AIRMASS IS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER BASED ON SOME CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIRMASS...THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 60.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND
GFS WITH A REBOUND IN 850 TEMPERATURES BACK TO VALUES SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING UPPER 60S
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS DRIVING PRECIP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS FROM THE LIFTS ACROSS THE LOW-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP IS
STILL VERY LIGHT ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST WARM ADVECTION
AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY DRY BELOW 7000 FT PER 00Z KGSO
RAOB. THE RAP STILL SHOWS THE BEST SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
295-305K LAYER FROM NOW THROUGH 15Z...THROUGH THE FLOW IS WEAK AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT REALLY DOESNT LOOK THAT GREAT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS RADAR ECHOES WILL EXPAND IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
AREAS WEST OF US 1 WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
TODAY...ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC SURGE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING..MODELS ACTUALLY PROJECT A MOSTLY DRY DESPITE PW
VALUES STEADILY INCREASING ABOVE ONE INCH AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AND AXIS OF BEST DEEP MOISTURE
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THERES REALLY NO FORCING OF ASCENT
OR INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC. HI-RES WRFS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE GRAND STRAND AREA OF SC AND SOUTHEASTERN
NC...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ENSHROUDING THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH
TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
THUS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ACTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1000-
850MB THICKNESS OF AROUND 1355M SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE ONCE THE SUN BREAK OUT. THE MAIN
QUESTION ON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LIGHT PRECIP THIS
MORNING AND OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT HEATING. WILL SHOWS A RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE PROBABILITY OF STRATUS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE NEAR SOME RECORD HI
MIN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THER FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND A COUPLE
DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...EXPECT TO FINALLY SEE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD. WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.5"...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGE
ZONE...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MAINS SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED
TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OLD MEXICO...AND A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WILL PROMOTE THE STRENGTHENING OF A CANADIAN/
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH...TO AROUND 1035 MB...ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU.
THE HIGH...AND PRECEDING SECONDARY COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THU...WILL CONSEQUENTLY HELP FORCE THE PRIMARY
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD AND
LARGELY OUT OF CENTRAL NC. EVEN THE ASSOCIATED H85 FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ROUGHLY SERVE AS THE NORTHEASTERN BOUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR RAIN ATOP THE CANADIAN/CP HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BELOW...IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
ROUGHLY TO AN ARC FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES OF NC...WITH NOTABLE DRYING -IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY AIR
SFC RIDGE- IN THE LOWEST 5000 OR SO FT...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT
ARC. AS SUCH...MOSTLY DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
THU...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR RIDGE...RANGING TO SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN FROM NE TO SW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA.
THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THU
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY LATE...AND MORE SO FRI...WHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACCELERATES AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GRADUAL NEARER APPROACH/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND FOLLOWING ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON
THE HEELS OF THE LEAD CANADIAN HIGH AND BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND;
AND WHILE THAT AIRMASS WILL NOT DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AT
OUR LATITUDE (WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC COLD/DRY HOLDING OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION)...A LONG FETCH/FEED
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A
MODIFIED VERSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE VA
AND NC PIEDMONTS FRI. THAT PROCESS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE ATOP THE HIGH(S)...WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG (CLASSICAL...DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED)
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FRI-FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY THAT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THU
NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE WEDGE SAT-SAT
NIGHT...OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWEST LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT
THAT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE ABOVE AVG RANGE THROUGH
SAT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PERIOD SUN-MON...WHEN DRY AND MILDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. LONGER
RANGE PROGS SIGNAL A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH AND BLOCKING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREENLAND - A PATTERN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NW FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EAST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENT
CENTERED AROUND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND VFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY....AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH PRECIP JUST TO THE
WEST MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OF NC.
SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL MOVE NEAR THE TRIAD THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT JUST SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE WILL BE ALL THAT IS
OBSERVED AT KGSO AND KINT. ONCE THIS BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...A 5-10KT SOUTHERLY WIND (GUSTING TO NEAR
20KT) WILL DOMINATE AND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIP. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR KFAY AFTER 18Z IS REALLY THE ONLY THREAT...AND
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.
TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE BY 00Z...BUT A STEADY 5-10KT WIND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING KFAY AND
KRWI IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.
LONG TERM: WEATHER WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES....ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1138 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
CANADIAN RADAR AND MINOT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM BRANDON TO NEAR OXBOW...ALONG A COLD
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF A SHOWER ALONG
THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER...FROM NEAR SHERWOOD TO BOTTINEAU AND
ROLLA. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 09Z AS THE FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OF 230 UTC. ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
OTHER THAN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING FOR THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 0030 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. BROAD H500
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA BRUSHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK
TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY TROUGH PASSAGE AS
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED.
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THE RELATIVELY COOL
AIR SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WARM AIR ALREADY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT AN ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE TO 4000 FEET BUT LITTLE WIND SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20S F WITH RH VALUES AROUND 20. HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE
MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
WARM AND DRY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED.
PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND
THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION. A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND
THE SECOND LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY. AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND WEST MIXING WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME
RATHER WARM DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON...WITH 70S POSSIBLE. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING WINDS...REMAINING SNOW WILL QUICKLY BE
ERODED. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATER
THIS WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect poor flight conditions tonight and Tuesday morning as
stratus remains across the area. Going with IFR ceilings at all
the terminals tonight and Monday morning. Also, a few hours of
MVFR ceilings are possible. Expect rapid improvement Monday
afternoon with VFR conditions by 19Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect poor flight conditions through much of the TAF forecast period
across West Central Texas. Going with IFR ceilings at all the
terminals tonight and Monday morning, improving to MVFR by 17Z.
Expect some patchy fog with visibilities mainly between 3 and 5
miles. Also, showers will continue across much of the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An upper shortwave moving northeast across West Texas this afternoon
was bringing light showers...mainly along and north of Big Lake...
San Angelo...Brownwood line. The showers will come to an end tonight
as the the upper shortwave brings subsidence in its wake. The short
range HRRR and NAM models depict the current showers the best, indicating
them to gradually weaken and dissipate over the Big Country this
evening. Have a 50 percent chance of showers over the Big Country
this evening, with a slight chance to the south. A moist boundary
layer and wet vegetation will promote fog formation tonight, but
with low and mid level clouds in place, dense fog is not expected.
Models indicate clearing skies Tuesday as dry mid level air moves in
from the west. Most areas will see partly cloudy skies by mid
afternoon. Highs are expected in the lower and mid 60s.
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
The rest of the week into next weekend looks pleasant for our
area, with less cloud cover and near seasonal temperatures.
Upper trough extending from eastern Kansas southwest across Texas
into Mexico will slowly weaken through Wednesday, with a weak closed
low developing over north-central or northwest Texas on Thursday.
An upstream shortwave trough is progged to dive south across the
Great Basin, forming a closed low over northwest Mexico on Friday.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF take the low south across western Mexico, to
just south of the Baja Peninsula next weekend. This will help to
maintain a weak upper trough from Missouri southwest across Texas
and Mexico. Despite the position of the trough, a lack of
sufficient moisture and weak lift will result in minimal rain
chances for our area. With a lack of cold air intrusions or
significant warmups, temperatures will be close to normal for this
time in March. May see a backdoor cold frontal passage Saturday
night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 43 64 43 69 43 / 50 10 5 10 5
San Angelo 45 67 40 71 42 / 20 10 5 10 5
Junction 48 65 42 70 42 / 20 10 10 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
IT WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT. THE WARMER TEMPS AND SNOW PACK
HAVE COMBINED TO HELP GENERATE A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. THE HRRR IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK AND TAKES IT
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA...CLEARING IT OUT BY LATE
MORNING. THAT SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN. THIS PROCESS...PLUS SUNSHINE...SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE LOW
CLOUDS. BUT...THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE TOUGH WITH RESPECT TO LOW
CLOUD FORECASTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STILL ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON...SO WILL KEEP THE VERY MILD TEMPS
GOING. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5C HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AND OUR NRN
FORECAST AREA HAS LOST MOST OF ITS SNOW PACK. I TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT
SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW PACK THERE.
A WEAK SFC TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOP AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING QUITE LIGHT BY MORNING. NOT
TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT RIGHT NOW AND WILL LEAVE IT MOSTLY CLEAR
AT THIS POINT.
.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH CWA BY 18Z OR SO THEN NVA
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS CWA AT 18Z
AND THEN SHIFTS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL A LIGHT WIND
REGIME. THERMAL PROFILE COOLS FROM TUESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKES
ON A NW/SE ORIENTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT...AND THE COOLER REGIME WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW/MID 50S IN
WESTERN CWA WITH 925 TEMPS CLOSER TO 5C THERE.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD AND RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH
SUPPORTS A REBOUND ONCE AGAIN IN THE 925/850 TEMPS. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SE...SO KEEPING THINGS COOLER IN THE EASTERN
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE BUT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH
40S NEAR THE LAKE AND SOME LOW 60S NEAR AND WEST OF MADISON GIVEN
THE UPTICK IN 925 TEMPS.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY PUSHING TOWARDS
SRN WI...IN FACT 84 HOUR NAM HAS RAIN SHIELD JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN
IL. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM MORE DOMINANT
WITH MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN WAVE REMAINING SOUTH OF WI. A NON-NAM
THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS A BOOST IN TEMPS SO HAVE STEERED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE 8-12C. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP
THE EAST COOLER WITH POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY COMPONENT.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DEGREE OF PROGRESSION AND EXTENT OF LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK. HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A COOLER
AIRMASS DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
850/925 TEMPS COOL MARKEDLY FROM FRIDAY...SO INLAND AREAS LIKELY
TO NOTICE THE BIGGER TEMP DROP FROM FRIDAY/S WARMER READINGS.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER BOUNCE BACK DAY AS SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST AND
RENEWED WARMING TAKES HOLD. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE
RETURN WARMTH THAN THE ECMWF AND AT THIS TIME FEEL SUPERBLEND IS
TOO COOL AND WILL BOOST MAXES A BIT. MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER
IF GFS THERMAL PATTERN HOLDS.
.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO EXTEND INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. WITH 925 TEMPS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10C...MAY END UP
SEEING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER ON
THE FROPA AND ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER VORT MAX IMPACTING THE AREA
WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS GRAZING THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW AND BOOST TEMPS OVER SUPERBLEND.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST WI
TAFS. AT THIS WRITING...NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IT WILL REACH
MADISON...BUT GIVEN THE MOMENTUM...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW
CLOUD TRENDS OVER A SNOW PACK. AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND DAMP GROUND COULD LEAD TO MORE
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ067>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
508 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.
A MILD AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY STABLE/DRY SO MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
WEDNESDAY).
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. APPLYING A SIMILAR BIAS TO
ADVERTISED H85 TEMPS WOULD BRING HIGHS AROUND 70 TO MOST OF THE
CWA. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LESS MIXING THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE...BUT TREND IS THERE AND CONFIDENCE IS IN HIGHS AT LEAST
AS WARM AS MONDAY IF NOT WARMER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE TROUGH AND SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER WAA AND BETTER MIXING
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DURING THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE ON
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH DAYS WITH BIAS
CORRECTION SUPPORTING MID 70S LIKELY IN OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. NW
FLOW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING WINDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT INCREASE TO
10-12KT AT KGLD. I COULD SEE A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND 18KT...BUT
AM NOT CONFIDENT THESE WOULD PREVAIL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT BOTH
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING WE SHOULD SEE TD VALUES DROP INTO THE
20S AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TD
RECOVERY THURSDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL LIMIT WINDS TO WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EVEN IF
WE WERE TO MIX A LITTLE DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR RED FLAG WARNING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
751 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WEEK WILL
SEE SUNSHINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DOWN SOUTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS. SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR RUC THAT THE FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OUR MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND LOW CLOUDS
AND TEMPS FOR THE AREA. WE HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST
FOR TODAY AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE AS A RESULT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO OUR THINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. WE EXPECT THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO MOVE OUT/MIX OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL STAY DOWN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND VS. THE 50S THAT LOOKED LIKELY.
WE WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRATUS MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. WE ARE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH LESS STRATUS.
THE NAM IS THE MAIN MODEL SHOWING THE STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
ITS CHRONIC ISSUE OF BEING OVER-SENSITIVE WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE
AND COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WED MAY ACTUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THEN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH AND ADVECT A BIT OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MILD WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH AND EASTERLY FLOW THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO TRACK
UP THE OH VALLEY LEAVING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI DRY. TYPICALLY WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE FIND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AS A RESULT I DID REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW. STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SYSTEM CLOSELY GIVEN THE FACT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMER FOR FRI NIGHT. THEY NO LONGER SUPPORT
SNOW. A SMALL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. MORE COMMONLY THE CLOUDS LIMITED THAT
POTENTIAL. BASED ON THAT I TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD RAIN. STILL
THE RISK FOR RAIN IS LOW.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THE DIGGING WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. I DID KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SAT NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR MONDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP AND COULD SUPPORT STRONGER VALUES THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY
SHOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR KMKG
AND KGRR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT KMKG COULD STAY IFR INTO TONIGHT.
INLAND IT LOOKS LIKE THE IFR SHOULD RETURN FOR KAZO...KBTL AND
KJXN AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN. WILL STILL FEATURE MVFR OR BETTER FOR
KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOSE BY TO THESE SITES AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ONE SITE BEING WATCHED IS AT HOLT ON
SYCAMORE CREEK. THIS SITE IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER... THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS RIVER
RISES HAVE YET TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BECOMES A
CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO
RAPIDLY ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE ON MOST
DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONUS. ACROSS UPPER MI...THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. EVEN ON THE COOLER DAYS...
TEMPS WILL BE NO LOWER THAN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAR. JUST BEYOND
THIS FCST PERIOD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A RETURN OF AN
AMPLIFIED FAR WRN NAMERICA RIDGE. THIS WILL AGAIN FORCE INCREASED
ERN NAMERICA TROFFING AND A RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. FARTHER OUT...GEM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
FAVOR BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO LATE MONTH. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE`VE
TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD PATTERN TO A WARM ONE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER (BLO NORMAL PCPN) WILL PROBABLY PERSIST NEXT WEEK AS
WELL DESPITE GOING BACK TO A COLD PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR (MUCH OF WI INTO PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AT 25 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL PCPN
SINCE JAN 1). THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN MAY OCCUR LATE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A COLDER PATTERN...BUT EVEN THAT PCPN DOESN`T LOOK
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
BEGINNING WED...FOLLOWING COLD FROPA TODAY...WED WILL BE A DRY/MUCH
COOLER DAY...COOLEST ACROSS THE N AND E WITH GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID 30S WILL BE THE RULE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONE ITEM OF POSSIBLE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO START THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY W OF UPPER MI...CLOSER
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NCNTRL MN AT 12Z WED.
WED NIGHT/THU...WAA DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES
RIDGE SHIFTING E TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE WAA/RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR COLUMN
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR N OF UPPER
MI IN ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WARMING
THU...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...EVEN SHALLOW MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST TO RISE TOWARD 50F. COOLEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS OFF THE
ICY WATERS.
FRI/SAT...SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE NE PACIFIC INTO BC THU IS
FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT IN RESPONSE TO BRIEF RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM IN WRN CANADA. JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE...WEAKER ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU
NIGHT/FRI. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELD UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT
WOULD SEEM BETTER POTENTIAL OF PCPN WILL OCCUR N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THUS N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -RA TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI. MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR FRI
NIGHT AS MAIN WAVE AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS REACH 140M WITH MAX PASSING ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN
DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SCHC/CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN CHANGING TO
-SHSN APPEAR WARRANTED FRI NIGHT/SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO MAX HEIGHT FALLS. IT WILL TURN
NOTABLY COOLER FOR SAT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C UNDER
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LWR 30S TO AROUND 40F...
WARMEST SCNTRL.
WAA QUICKLY KICKS IN AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN UNDER A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME WHICH BRINGS THE WRN CANADIAN RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. BY SUN MORNING...850MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL BE
BACK UP TO 0C E TO 3C W...AND THEN 3 TO 8C BY SUN EVENING UNDER
STRENGTHENING S TO SW WINDS. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WELL N OF HERE...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. TEMPS SUN WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.
MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR A FEW DAYS...
SEVERAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 10 TO 15C MON.
HOWEVER...TEMP FCST WILL HINGE ON SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATE ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING WHILE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN EARLY HIGHS IN
THE 40S WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING. GFS/ECMWF HAVEN`T BEEN CONSISENT ON
FRONTAL TIMING WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE INTO
THE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE IS A TREND FOR A FASTER FROPA WITH THE
00Z RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH AN AVERAGING OF RECENT RUNS
WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS MOSTLY MID 40S TO MID 50S. SAME METHODOLOGY
GOES FOR POPS WHICH WILL BE THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. COLDER AIR
ARRIVING AFTER FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD
AIR DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE
RESULTS IN A DOWNSTREAM TAP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN
TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WL
CONTINUE LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS LOW-LVL JET MAX WORKS
ACROSS AREA BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING GETS GOING. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY
AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS OFF
THE SFC WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WITH HEATING TO THE SFC. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WE LOSE
DIURNAL MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1021 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN OVERALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG A NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF AN IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ANOMALOUS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FOR EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION AND THE NEXT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND
INCREASE RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL/FLASH FLOODING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE PORTRAYS BANDS OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTN
WHERE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY EVNG. STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH KDGX/KLIX VWP
INDICATING 30-40KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT HAZARD GRAPHICS HANDLE THE
SITUATION WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED RIGHT NOW. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS THROUGH 12Z
WED. VSBY WILL BE RELATED TO PERIODS OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DURING BREAKS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT WHERE/WHEN THEY WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES. /SW/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE ON PRECIP COVERAGE...AMOUNTS AND IT ANY FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
I WILL SAY THE FORECAST IS NOT STRAIGHT FORWARD AS TRYING TO NARROW
DOWN ANY LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS VERY TOUGH.
AS OF 4 AM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR LLQ WITH TWO
NOTICEABLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST IS JUST N OF I-20
WHICH DEFINES THE LOWER 60 DEWPTS AND THE OTHER DOWN AROUND BTR TO
NEW WHICH SEPARATES THE MID/UPPER 60 DEWPTS. THIS STRUCTURE IS
PROMOTING A STRONG WAA REGIME WITH HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST OFF
THE SFC. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A LARGE PRECIP AREA OVER THE N HALF
WITH A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIP IN THE SW. THIS AREA IN THE SW
IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE CHALLENGE COMES IN HOW ALL THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO MID MORNING AND THEN WHAT WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND CONVERGENCE WILL WANE SUBSTANTIALLY BY 14-15 AS THE BETTER
MID/UPPER SUPPORT LIFT OUT. HI-RES GUID AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR TERM
DATA SHOW THIS AND ALL SHOW THE CURRENT PRECIP CONFIGURATION
BREAKING DOWN WITH A REALLY DIFFUSE/UNORGANIZED LOOK TO THINGS BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC
INFLUENCES ON PRECIP WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THIS MORNING
AND WHAT WILL DRIVE THINGS WILL BE THERMODYNAMIC/MESO-SCALE
INFLUENCES. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT FROM THE LARGE
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WITH OUR REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD.
EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS TIME ARE FOR A CONVERGENT BAND OR TWO OF
CONVECTION TO GET GOING OVER SE LA AND SPREAD N/NE INTO THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA. EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH LOOKS TO LINGER INTO PART OF THE EVENING.
AS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE LOW AS
MORE NEG FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT. THE ONLY FEW POSITIVES ARE MID 60S
DEWPTS AND SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE OF 500-1200 J/KG. THIS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS
AND WITH 30-40 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 5-12 KFT...STRONG WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...THE NEGATIVES
ARE MORE NUMEROUS. THE MAIN THING IS THE CORE OF THE LIFT IS EXITING
THE AREA...LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850-500 MB WINDS ARE ERRATIC WITH
SOME (VEER/BACK/VEER) FLOW WHICH IS DISRUPTIVE TO UPDRAFTS...MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH FOR EARLY MAR WITH AN OVERALL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LIMITED
OUTLOOK AS THE INSTABILITY EXPECTATIONS AND APPEARANCE OF SOME
DECENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM THE HRRR FIT THE SITUATION.
MORE QUESTION MARKS FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF WED. THE LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR MORE OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. I TRENDED POPS/WX TO
REFLECT THIS. BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS
ACTIVITY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON LINGERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST OVER THE SE HALF AS
REPETITIVE STORMS COULD BE ADDING UP THE TOTALS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON WED INTO WED NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE NEXT SOLID
CHUCK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACH THE REGION. THE RESPONSE WILL
BE INCREASING WAA AND OVERALL PRECIP AS A SFC INVERTED TROUGH GETS
ORGANIZED AND THEN A SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THAT FEATURE. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT BY WED EVENING WITH
SOME HEAVY PRECIP ELEMENTS TAKING SHAPE AS DEEP MOISTURE COMES BACK
INTO PLAY. /CME/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COME THURSDAY MORNING A VERY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER MOST OF AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE GREATER RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. PWS WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST
OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DECREASING POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING OCCUR OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
908 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MORNING UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
FRIEDERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
DRY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 600 MB OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CLOSE TO 700 MB OVER THE E. STILL LOOKING
FOR NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES AT KBIL. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE HIGHER
AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KBIL W. EXPECTING A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO AROUND +12 DEGREES C.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON WED AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
IT. A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT. ENERGY
IN THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. WED WILL REMAIN DRY AND THEN
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WED
NIGHT. GFS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND...SO HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z...THEN HIGHER POPS AFTER 06Z. BROUGHT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR E AS GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THUNDER. EXPECTING JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AS THE
ENSEMBLES KEPT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH.
WED WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDING TRENDS AND THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. KBIL AND KMLS WILL
HAVE NEAR-RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL BE WINDY W OF KBIL ON WED DUE TO
THE LEE TROUGH. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MIXED...AND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH EXTENDED
MODELS REMAINING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
IS NOT TOO STRONG. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD FRIDAY...AND BRINGING MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN INFLUX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND PAVES THE WAY FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LEE SIDE
TROFFING WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM...SETTING UP GUSTY
WINDS...WHICH MAY BE OF GREATER CONCERN THAN THE PRECIP.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...DROPPING DAY
TIME HIGHS FOR INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TO START THE
PERIOD...AND MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 041/072 042/062 039/064 037/070 046/072 038/051
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 11/B 32/W
LVM 064 042/068 043/058 037/062 037/066 048/073 036/052
0/U 00/N 43/W 21/B 00/B 11/B 32/W
HDN 069 036/073 038/063 037/066 036/071 040/072 037/054
0/U 00/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 32/W
MLS 064 036/071 038/060 038/062 036/069 044/070 037/054
0/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 00/U 01/B 21/B
4BQ 065 034/071 036/061 036/063 033/070 038/071 036/053
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 00/U 00/B 22/W
BHK 062 033/068 035/058 035/060 032/065 037/068 034/048
0/U 00/U 01/B 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B
SHR 063 034/067 036/060 037/062 031/067 040/071 037/052
0/U 00/U 02/W 21/B 00/U 01/B 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
GENERALLY THIS QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG POLAR
JET IN SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE RAP HAS BEEN REPRESENTING THIS
FEATURE WELL HOWEVER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD IT
TOO WEAK AND TOO SLOW. USING THE RAP SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW CLOUDS GENERATED BY THIS WAVE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN THE PAST HOUR AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPED IN THE COLUMBUS-NORFOLK AREAS. THIS WAVE ALSO BRINGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT TODAY...HOWEVER WE MAINLY EXPECT THIS TO
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. ACTUALLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE BRIEFLY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. 850 MB AIR
ALSO INCREASES A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH GOOD MIXING ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE LOWER 70S PREDICTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORDS SEEM SAFE ALTHOUGH THE RECORD HIGH IN
NORFOLK ON WEDNESDAY OF 74 MAY BE THREATENED. THESE ARE GOOD
PATTERNS TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OF
WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS
BUT VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK AND AIRMASS IS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER BASED ON SOME CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIRMASS...THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 60.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND
GFS WITH A REBOUND IN 850 TEMPERATURES BACK TO VALUES SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING UPPER 60S
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN TO THE NORTH BY TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WARM
FRONT OVER THE NORTH PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE OVERALL AIR
MASS WAS MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH AND FROM 1.1 TO JUST OVER 1.25 INCHES. UNDER THE RIDGE
ALOFT WEAK DIFFLUENCE WAS NOTED AND FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...THOUGH THE TREND FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS FOR THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A REGIME OF LIMITED LIFT AND MODEST
MOISTURE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE YADKIN
RIVER AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST OVERALL MOISTURE THIS MORNING...WITH MID-
LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE SUCH THAT FOR THE DAY THE RAP HAS NO QPF
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE...
AND HAVE NOTED IN THE FORECAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARD THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND
HAVE RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD KFAY WHILE LOWERING THEM
THE SAME AMOUNT TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE THICKER WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RELATIVE TO THE
REST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS IN GENERAL SHOULD OFFSET MIXING...BUT A FEW
GUST AROUND 20KT ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING. -DJF
TONIGHT...A MOSTLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE PROBABILITY OF STRATUS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE NEAR SOME RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. -22
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THER FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND A COUPLE
DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...EXPECT TO FINALLY SEE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD. WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.5"...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGE
ZONE...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MAINS SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED
TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OLD MEXICO...AND A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WILL PROMOTE THE STRENGTHENING OF A CANADIAN/
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH...TO AROUND 1035 MB...ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU.
THE HIGH...AND PRECEDING SECONDARY COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THU...WILL CONSEQUENTLY HELP FORCE THE PRIMARY
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD AND
LARGELY OUT OF CENTRAL NC. EVEN THE ASSOCIATED H85 FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ROUGHLY SERVE AS THE NORTHEASTERN BOUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR RAIN ATOP THE CANADIAN/CP HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BELOW...IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
ROUGHLY TO AN ARC FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES OF NC...WITH NOTABLE DRYING -IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY AIR
SFC RIDGE- IN THE LOWEST 5000 OR SO FT...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT
ARC. AS SUCH...MOSTLY DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
THU...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR RIDGE...RANGING TO SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN FROM NE TO SW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA.
THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THU
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY LATE...AND MORE SO FRI...WHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACCELERATES AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GRADUAL NEARER APPROACH/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND FOLLOWING ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON
THE HEELS OF THE LEAD CANADIAN HIGH AND BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND;
AND WHILE THAT AIRMASS WILL NOT DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AT
OUR LATITUDE (WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC COLD/DRY HOLDING OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION)...A LONG FETCH/FEED
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A
MODIFIED VERSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE VA
AND NC PIEDMONTS FRI. THAT PROCESS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE ATOP THE HIGH(S)...WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG (CLASSICAL...DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED)
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FRI-FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY THAT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THU
NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE WEDGE SAT-SAT
NIGHT...OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWEST LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT
THAT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE ABOVE AVG RANGE THROUGH
SAT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PERIOD SUN-MON...WHEN DRY AND MILDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. LONGER
RANGE PROGS SIGNAL A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH AND BLOCKING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREENLAND - A PATTERN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NW FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EAST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENT
CENTERED AROUND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND VFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY....AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH PRECIP JUST TO THE
WEST MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OF NC.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES IMPACT TERMINALS FROM RALEIGH
WEST TO KGSO/KINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...LOW
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LIGHT RAIN. ONCE
THIS BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...A 5-10KT
SOUTHERLY WIND (GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT) WILL DOMINATE AND MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR
KFAY AFTER 18Z IS REALLY THE ONLY THREAT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS
LOW.
TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE BY 00Z...BUT A STEADY 5-10KT WIND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRATUS (LIKELY
IFR) IS EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING
KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AND KRDU BY 06-09Z.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS LOWER AT KGSO/KINT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST SOME LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE BY 12Z.
LONG TERM: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES....ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...DJF/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
741 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PARTIAL SUNSHINE APPEARS IN THE CARDS
TODAY FOR NE SC AND SE NC BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MAY HELP THE CAUSE AND CONSUME A
PERCENTAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDINESS. THE VARIABLE COVERAGE WILL
COMPLICATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BUT OVERALL A VERY MILD
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...RUNNING 7-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH
10TH AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK FOR
SEVERAL OF OUR INTERIOR SC ZONES TO REACH 80. NO CHANCE OF MAX
TEMP RECORDS BROKEN...MOST RESIDE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
NO APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT TO TRIGGER RAIN GENERATION BUT WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE OF SC THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
MAY GUIDE SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. THIS
MECHANISM WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT
THE COAST WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE FROM
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SPLIT
FLOW DRIVES A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO
NVA AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA. I
MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS WITH SUCH SUBTLE FEATURES...THE NEW
CYCLES COULD SHOW SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. POPS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. THE
FORCING...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEED TO WAIT ON BETTER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WHICH ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A WEAK AND MORE FLEETING WEDGE THURSDAY WHICH MANIFESTS IN
THE MET NUMBERS WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY SCALING BACK FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND I REMOVED POPS FOR THESE DAYS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A
QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE WEEKEND VIA STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
THE CONTINUING SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WITH THE DRYING NORTHWEST
FLOW COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS 2500-3500 FEET OCCURRING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AT TAF TIME...OTHERWISE VFR. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT EVEN LOWER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS OFFSHORE DEVELOP.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING TODAY ALONG THE COAST. ADD TO THIS SHOWERS
OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE MARINE
AIRMASS. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG. COULD BEGIN SEEING SOME OF THIS STRATUS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT KCRE/KMYR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIFR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG APPEAR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR
STRATUS COULD ALSO OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT BY MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIKELY TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF -RA/BR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND FRIENDLY SEAS THIS MORNING
WITH SEA HEIGHTS 2 FEET OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONSHORE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH WILL INCREASE S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN THESE SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND VEERING TO SSW-SW. SEAS 2 FT THIS MORNING BUILDING TO 2-3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. SEA SPECTRUM A MIX OF SE WAVES
1-2 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND ESE WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EVERY 9
SECONDS. NO TSTMS EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DOT THE
WATERS ALONG WITH PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG AND MIST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE PATTERN
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO REALITY THOUGH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETS UP A NORTHEAST FLOW OF
15-20 KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY LATER THURSDAY TO 20-25
KNOTS. BY FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DROP BACK SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MODEST ENOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3
FEET. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND END UP WELL
INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION DRIVING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY
WITH 10-15 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS
DRAMATICALLY AND TEN KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD SUFFICE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT VALUES PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY SEAS DROP TO 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PARTIAL SUNSHINE APPEARS IN THE CARDS
TODAY FOR NE SC AND SE NC BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MAY HELP THE CAUSE AND CONSUME A
PERCENTAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDINESS. THE VARIABLE COVERAGE WILL
COMPLICATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS BUT OVERALL A VERY MILD
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED...RUNNING 7-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH
10TH AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK FOR
SEVERAL OF OUR INTERIOR SC ZONES TO REACH 80. NO CHANCE OF MAX
TEMP RECORDS BROKEN...MOST RESIDE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
NO APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT TO TRIGGER RAIN GENERATION BUT WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE OF SC THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
MAY GUIDE SHOWERS NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. THIS
MECHANISM WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT
THE COAST WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE FROM
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SPLIT
FLOW DRIVES A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO
NVA AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA. I
MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS WITH SUCH SUBTLE FEATURES...THE NEW
CYCLES COULD SHOW SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. POPS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE. THE
FORCING...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEED TO WAIT ON BETTER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WHICH ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A WEAK AND MORE FLEETING WEDGE THURSDAY WHICH MANIFESTS IN
THE MET NUMBERS WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW TO A MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY SCALING BACK FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND 1200 UTC ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND I REMOVED POPS FOR THESE DAYS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A
QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE WEEKEND VIA STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
THE CONTINUING SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WITH THE DRYING NORTHWEST
FLOW COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS 2500-3500 FEET OCCURRING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AT TAF TIME...OTHERWISE VFR. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT EVEN LOWER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS OFFSHORE DEVELOP.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING TODAY ALONG THE COAST. ADD TO THIS SHOWERS
OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE MARINE
AIRMASS. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG. COULD BEGIN SEEING SOME OF THIS STRATUS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT KCRE/KMYR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIFR MARINE STRATUS
AND FOG APPEAR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR
STRATUS COULD ALSO OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT BY MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIKELY TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF -RA/BR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND FRIENDLY SEAS THIS MORNING
WITH SEA HEIGHTS 2 FEET OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONSHORE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH WILL INCREASE S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN THESE SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AND VEERING TO SSW-SW. SEAS 2 FT THIS MORNING BUILDING TO 2-3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. SEA SPECTRUM A MIX OF SE WAVES
1-2 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND ESE WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EVERY 9
SECONDS. NO TSTMS EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DOT THE
WATERS ALONG WITH PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG AND MIST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE PATTERN
QUICKLY SHIFTS BACK TO REALITY THOUGH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SETS UP A NORTHEAST FLOW OF
15-20 KNOTS WHICH WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY LATER THURSDAY TO 20-25
KNOTS. BY FRIDAY MORNING WINDS DROP BACK SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MODEST ENOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3
FEET. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND END UP WELL
INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE CONFIGURATION DRIVING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY
WITH 10-15 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS
DRAMATICALLY AND TEN KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD SUFFICE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT VALUES PART OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY SEAS DROP TO 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS DRIVING PRECIP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS FROM THE LIFTS ACROSS THE LOW-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIP IS
STILL VERY LIGHT ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST WARM ADVECTION
AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY DRY BELOW 7000 FT PER 00Z KGSO
RAOB. THE RAP STILL SHOWS THE BEST SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
295-305K LAYER FROM NOW THROUGH 15Z...THROUGH THE FLOW IS WEAK AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT REALLY DOESNT LOOK THAT GREAT. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS RADAR ECHOES WILL EXPAND IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
AREAS WEST OF US 1 WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
TODAY...ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC SURGE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING..MODELS ACTUALLY PROJECT A MOSTLY DRY DESPITE PW
VALUES STEADILY INCREASING ABOVE ONE INCH AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AND AXIS OF BEST DEEP MOISTURE
REMAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THERES REALLY NO FORCING OF ASCENT
OR INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC. HI-RES WRFS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE GRAND STRAND AREA OF SC AND SOUTHEASTERN
NC...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL
KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ENSHROUDING THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH
TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
THUS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ACTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1000-
850MB THICKNESS OF AROUND 1355M SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE ONCE THE SUN BREAK OUT. THE MAIN
QUESTION ON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LIGHT PRECIP THIS
MORNING AND OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT HEATING. WILL SHOWS A RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND. THE PROBABILITY OF STRATUS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE NEAR SOME RECORD HI
MIN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THER FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND A COUPLE
DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...EXPECT TO FINALLY SEE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD. WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.5"...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGE
ZONE...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE TRICKY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 10C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MAINS SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED
TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OLD MEXICO...AND A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WILL PROMOTE THE STRENGTHENING OF A CANADIAN/
CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH...TO AROUND 1035 MB...ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU.
THE HIGH...AND PRECEDING SECONDARY COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THU...WILL CONSEQUENTLY HELP FORCE THE PRIMARY
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD AND
LARGELY OUT OF CENTRAL NC. EVEN THE ASSOCIATED H85 FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ROUGHLY SERVE AS THE NORTHEASTERN BOUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND ASSOCIATED FOCUS FOR RAIN ATOP THE CANADIAN/CP HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BELOW...IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE
ROUGHLY TO AN ARC FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES OF NC...WITH NOTABLE DRYING -IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY AIR
SFC RIDGE- IN THE LOWEST 5000 OR SO FT...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT
ARC. AS SUCH...MOSTLY DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN
THU...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIR RIDGE...RANGING TO SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN FROM NE TO SW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA.
THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THU
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY LATE...AND MORE SO FRI...WHEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACCELERATES AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GRADUAL NEARER APPROACH/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND FOLLOWING ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON
THE HEELS OF THE LEAD CANADIAN HIGH AND BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND;
AND WHILE THAT AIRMASS WILL NOT DIRECTLY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AT
OUR LATITUDE (WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC COLD/DRY HOLDING OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION)...A LONG FETCH/FEED
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SFC HIGHS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A
MODIFIED VERSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE VA
AND NC PIEDMONTS FRI. THAT PROCESS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE ATOP THE HIGH(S)...WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG (CLASSICAL...DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED)
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FRI-FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY THAT TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THU
NIGHT/FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE WEDGE SAT-SAT
NIGHT...OWING TO THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWEST LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT
THAT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE ABOVE AVG RANGE THROUGH
SAT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PERIOD SUN-MON...WHEN DRY AND MILDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. LONGER
RANGE PROGS SIGNAL A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH AND BLOCKING IN THE
VICINITY OF GREENLAND - A PATTERN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NW FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EAST COAST PRECIPITATION EVENT
CENTERED AROUND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND VFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY....AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH PRECIP JUST TO THE
WEST MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS OF NC.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES IMPACT TERMINALS FROM RALEIGH
WEST TO KGSO/KINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...LOW
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LIGHT RAIN. ONCE
THIS BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...A 5-10KT
SOUTHERLY WIND (GUSTING TO NEAR 20KT) WILL DOMINATE AND MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR
KFAY AFTER 18Z IS REALLY THE ONLY THREAT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS
LOW.
TONIGHT...WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE BY 00Z...BUT A STEADY 5-10KT WIND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. STRATUS (LIKELY
IFR) IS EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING
KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AND KRDU BY 06-09Z.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS LOWER AT KGSO/KINT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST SOME LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE BY 12Z.
LONG TERM: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES....ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1001 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT
KMFD. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST THE RAIN WILL
GET AS FAR NORTH AS KCLE SO HAVE EXPANDED THE LIKELY AREA. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF MOST LOCATIONS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA BY
MID/LATE MORNING. MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT RAIN REACHING NEAR A LINE
FROM MNN-MFD-CAK- YNG WITH LIKELY OR BETTER POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. DID BRING CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR A FDY-CLE-
GKJ LINE. BEST SHOT AT NOTHING...TOLEDO. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO SUN BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION THINK 45 TO 50 REASONABLE
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT PRECIP TO EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE OVERNIGHT
DRY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
COOLEST AIR WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND ZERO. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
FLOW...ESP WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE
SO WHILE SOUTHERN/SWRN COUNTIES MAY SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO
50...FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE LAKE 40 TO 45 SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME FRIDAY ASTER THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OHIO ON SATURDAY. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
THE MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY FAR SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MORE OF THE SOUTH. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AFTER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO RETREAT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL DROP BELOW MVFR AS WELL AS THE RAIN SETTLES IN. BIG QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE LAKE
SHORE. WILL BRING IN A BRIEF PERIOD THERE. OTHERWISE...LONGER
PERIOD OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE APPEARS IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A LARGE
OPENING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHOALS BETWEEN THE WESTERN
BASIN AND CENTRAL BASINS. ONCE AGAIN...ICE FISHING INTERESTS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SHIFTING ICE FLOES CAUSING ENTRAPMENT ON THE
ICE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
954 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... FOG...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTN. CLEARING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND THE OBS TREND.
WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM... DID EXPAND
PATCHY FOG CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NWRN OK THROUGH 1 PM.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO INTERMITTENT LIFR VSBYS/CIGS
TO PERSIST THROUGH 13Z TO 15Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY 17Z TO 18Z...ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY 06Z WED.
AUSTIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RATHER HO-HUM WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AS THE UPPER WAVE THAT PROVIDED DECENT RAINS MONDAY CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG/DRIZZLE...AND OCCASIONAL RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
WE MAY STAY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-35 WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...ADEQUATE
SUNSHINE SHOULD COME THROUGH FOR US TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S
TODAY. THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE WEST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN...BUT AT THIS
TIME...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF
I-35.
BY SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL KEEP 60S MOST PLACES.
AN EVEN STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES LOOK TO BE DRY.
AUSTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 44 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 68 43 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 42 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 44 74 43 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 46 70 49 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ005>008-
010-011-015-017.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEAR THE
ARKLAMISS...MOVING NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... FOLLOWED 06Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
CORRELATED WELL WITH ONGOING TRENDS. GFS LAMP CIGS APPEARED TO BE
RELYING ON PERSISTENCE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
642 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK...WITH MAIN UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 40S...AND A COMBO OF ADVECTION
AND IN- SITU FOG DEVELOP OVER THE COLD WATERS AND SNOWPACK
RESPECTIVELY. WEBCAMS ALONG NYC HARBOR AND SW LI COAST ARE SHOWING
REDUCED VSBYS ALREADY. HRRR AND NARRE INITIALIZING THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SE PA REMARKABLY WELL...AND PROGGING
THIS TO EXPAND NE INTO THE TRI-STATE THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
LEFT OUT ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS POINT AS IT SHOULD BE PROTECTED A
BIT FROM THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR BY THE HILLS ON THEIR SE BORDER.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
AFTER 06-08Z SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG FLOW WILL BE. SO HAVE RUN DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP RAIN
THIS EVENING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND 150 TO 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 06Z BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES EAST. HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE 1/4 TO NEAR 1/3 INCH
OF RAIN IS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...RAIN ENDS QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK. TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE. A MILD DAY IS ON
TAP WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS
BUILDING OVERHEAD. HAVE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND POTENTIALLY
MIDDLE 50S IN THE CITY AND SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND MIDDLE 30S IN THE NYC METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND IN THE
30S IN/AROUND NYC.
LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THAT LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS IT APPROACHES...A SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH...STRENGTHENING THE
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THIS LOW WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THEN.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT PTYPE WILL BECOME A CONCERN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
PLAIN RAIN FOR NYC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...TEMPS WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT...AND PRECIP
CHANGES BACK TO ALL RAIN. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY DURING
THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50.
LOW PRES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...TOUCHING OFF SOME
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN.
THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT.
THAT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RA QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE NY METRO ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
IFR TOWARD OR JUST AFTER 00Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO NEAR 1/4 MILE AT TIMES WITH
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. RESIDUAL FOG IN THE MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE TO VFR WITH NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT SE SFC FLOW THIS AFTN...BUT 20-25KT SE WNDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
THAT VEER TO SW THIS THIS EVENING AS THEY WEAKEN.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND HOW LOW
IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENT IN SFC WNDS < 10 KT...BUT STRONGER WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT. SFC WNDS < 10 KT...BUT
STRONGER SE-S WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF IFR AND
SPECIFICS ON HOW LOW IT WILL GO OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NGT-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...BECOMING IFR IN RASN EARLY CHANGING TO RA. LGT SE SFC WND.
.SUN...MFVR. CHC -SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WITH MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF IT...DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS TO NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS MAY REACH 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCA LEVELS. SEAS BUILD TO
TO 3 TO 4 FT ON OCEAN WATERS...AND COULD BE CLOSE TO 5 FT ON EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY SCA HEADLINES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP CONDS
TRANQUIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRES PASSES OVER THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AND OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS A RESULT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
25 KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME AIR TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER/STREAM ICE TO BEGIN
ROTTING. BUT COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT
AND RATE OF ICE BREAK-UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
078>081-176>179.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ068>071.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
104>108.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
353-355.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MPS/DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MPS/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND AXIS OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.
A MILD AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY STABLE/DRY SO MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
WEDNESDAY).
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. APPLYING A SIMILAR BIAS TO
ADVERTISED H85 TEMPS WOULD BRING HIGHS AROUND 70 TO MOST OF THE
CWA. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LESS MIXING THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE...BUT TREND IS THERE AND CONFIDENCE IS IN HIGHS AT LEAST
AS WARM AS MONDAY IF NOT WARMER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE TROUGH AND SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER WAA AND BETTER MIXING
SHOULD BRING TEMPS DURING THESE PERIODS. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE ON
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BOTH DAYS WITH BIAS
CORRECTION SUPPORTING MID 70S LIKELY IN OUR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH DRIER AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...TQ INDEX AND NEGATIVE
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT SUPPORT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT.
FURTHER EAST THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO
OVERCOME. MAY END UP BEING SPRINKLES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING. BECAUSE OF THIS AND
RESULTING COLLABORATION I NUDGED UP THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM
WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015
EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING WE SHOULD SEE TD VALUES DROP INTO THE
20S AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. TD
RECOVERY THURSDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL LIMIT WINDS TO WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EVEN IF
WE WERE TO MIX A LITTLE DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR RED FLAG WARNING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE MONITORING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO...JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SRN MANITOBA FROM LOW PRES OVER
JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO -4C TO -6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 30 ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WED...ANY LINGERING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXEPCT DRIER AND COOLDER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NW WINDS
BOOSTED BY LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. S CNTRL
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL PREVAIL CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU-NEXT TUESDAY
AS W-NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
IN THE 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN ON BOTH OF THOSE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
THE CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING RAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGARDS OF PHASING
OF THE NRN SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
MAINTAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND AS SUCH MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST
FASTER. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST MORE PHASING AND AS SUCH
ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE GEM/UKMET. AS SUCH...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. REGARDLESS...THE BIG
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT RISE
TO ABOVE +10C SO SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL
YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEST AS MIXING INCREASING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND 925-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS FCST 925-
850 MB RH AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW. WITH ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY MENTIONE CIGS TO 3K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU-NEXT TUESDAY
AS W-NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
IN THE 50S OR PERHAPS LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN ON BOTH OF THOSE
DAYS...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S TEMPERATURES MAY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
THE CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING RAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGARDS OF PHASING
OF THE NRN SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
MAINTAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND AS SUCH MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST
FASTER. MEANWHILE THE GEM AND UKMET SUGGEST MORE PHASING AND AS SUCH
ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE GEM/UKMET. AS SUCH...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. REGARDLESS...THE BIG
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT RISE
TO ABOVE +10C SO SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL
YIELD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEST AS MIXING INCREASING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND 925-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS FCST 925-
850 MB RH AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW. WITH ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY MENTIONE CIGS TO 3K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
TODAY...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-7C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO 900 MB...FCST SNDGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWER 60S READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SCNTRL UPPER MI. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER
ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING.
HOWEVER...DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK
TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOWER 30S READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE ON MOST
DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONUS. ACROSS UPPER MI...THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL
OCCASIONALLY REACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. EVEN ON THE COOLER DAYS...
TEMPS WILL BE NO LOWER THAN AROUND NORMAL FOR MID MAR. JUST BEYOND
THIS FCST PERIOD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A RETURN OF AN
AMPLIFIED FAR WRN NAMERICA RIDGE. THIS WILL AGAIN FORCE INCREASED
ERN NAMERICA TROFFING AND A RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. FARTHER OUT...GEM
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
FAVOR BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO LATE MONTH. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE`VE
TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD PATTERN TO A WARM ONE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER (BLO NORMAL PCPN) WILL PROBABLY PERSIST NEXT WEEK AS
WELL DESPITE GOING BACK TO A COLD PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR (MUCH OF WI INTO PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL AND WRN UPPER MI ARE RUNNING AT 25 TO 50PCT OF NORMAL PCPN
SINCE JAN 1). THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN MAY OCCUR LATE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A COLDER PATTERN...BUT EVEN THAT PCPN DOESN`T LOOK
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
BEGINNING WED...FOLLOWING COLD FROPA TODAY...WED WILL BE A DRY/MUCH
COOLER DAY...COOLEST ACROSS THE N AND E WITH GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED
BY LAKE BREEZE OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOW/MID 40S WHILE MID 30S WILL BE THE RULE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONE ITEM OF POSSIBLE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO START THE DAY. NAM SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY W OF UPPER MI...CLOSER
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NCNTRL MN AT 12Z WED.
WED NIGHT/THU...WAA DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES
RIDGE SHIFTING E TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE WAA/RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR COLUMN
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR N OF UPPER
MI IN ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED FOR WED NIGHT/THU.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WARMING
THU...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...EVEN SHALLOW MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST TO RISE TOWARD 50F. COOLEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS OFF THE
ICY WATERS.
FRI/SAT...SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE NE PACIFIC INTO BC THU IS
FCST TO DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT IN RESPONSE TO BRIEF RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM IN WRN CANADA. JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE...WEAKER ENERGY IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU
NIGHT/FRI. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELD UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT
WOULD SEEM BETTER POTENTIAL OF PCPN WILL OCCUR N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THUS N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME -RA TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI. MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR FRI
NIGHT AS MAIN WAVE AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS REACH 140M WITH MAX PASSING ACROSS NE LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN
DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SCHC/CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN CHANGING TO
-SHSN APPEAR WARRANTED FRI NIGHT/SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO MAX HEIGHT FALLS. IT WILL TURN
NOTABLY COOLER FOR SAT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C UNDER
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LWR 30S TO AROUND 40F...
WARMEST SCNTRL.
WAA QUICKLY KICKS IN AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN UNDER A VERY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW REGIME WHICH BRINGS THE WRN CANADIAN RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. BY SUN MORNING...850MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL BE
BACK UP TO 0C E TO 3C W...AND THEN 3 TO 8C BY SUN EVENING UNDER
STRENGTHENING S TO SW WINDS. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WELL N OF HERE...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. TEMPS SUN WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.
MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR A FEW DAYS...
SEVERAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 10 TO 15C MON.
HOWEVER...TEMP FCST WILL HINGE ON SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LATE ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S
AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING WHILE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD MEAN EARLY HIGHS IN
THE 40S WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING. GFS/ECMWF HAVEN`T BEEN CONSISENT ON
FRONTAL TIMING WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE INTO
THE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE IS A TREND FOR A FASTER FROPA WITH THE
00Z RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH AN AVERAGING OF RECENT RUNS
WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS MOSTLY MID 40S TO MID 50S. SAME METHODOLOGY
GOES FOR POPS WHICH WILL BE THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. COLDER AIR
ARRIVING AFTER FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD
AIR DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE
RESULTS IN A DOWNSTREAM TAP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN
TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEST AS MIXING INCREASING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND 925-850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS FCST 925-
850 MB RH AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW. WITH ONLY LIMITED
CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...ONLY MENTIONE CIGS TO 3K FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. WL
KEEP MARGINAL GALE WARNING GOING INTO THE MORNING HRS FOR 263-264-
266. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS
OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WEEK WILL
SEE SUNSHINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DOWN SOUTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS. SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR RUC THAT THE FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OUR MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND LOW CLOUDS
AND TEMPS FOR THE AREA. WE HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST
FOR TODAY AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE AS A RESULT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO OUR THINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. WE EXPECT THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO MOVE OUT/MIX OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL STAY DOWN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND VS. THE 50S THAT LOOKED LIKELY.
WE WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRATUS MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. WE ARE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH LESS STRATUS.
THE NAM IS THE MAIN MODEL SHOWING THE STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
ITS CHRONIC ISSUE OF BEING OVER-SENSITIVE WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE
AND COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WED MAY ACTUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THEN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH AND ADVECT A BIT OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MILD WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH AND EASTERLY FLOW THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO TRACK
UP THE OH VALLEY LEAVING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI DRY. TYPICALLY WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE FIND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AS A RESULT I DID REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW. STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SYSTEM CLOSELY GIVEN THE FACT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMER FOR FRI NIGHT. THEY NO LONGER SUPPORT
SNOW. A SMALL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. MORE COMMONLY THE CLOUDS LIMITED THAT
POTENTIAL. BASED ON THAT I TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD RAIN. STILL
THE RISK FOR RAIN IS LOW.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THE DIGGING WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. I DID KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SAT NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR MONDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP AND COULD SUPPORT STRONGER VALUES THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY
SHOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. HOWEVER BASED ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY KMKG AND KLAN SHOULD SEE THE CIGS SCATTER THE QUICKEST.
LOOK FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO REFORM AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE VSBYS AND CIGS INCREASE BEHIND IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ONE
SITE BEING WATCHED IS AT HOLT ON SYCAMORE CREEK. THIS SITE IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS RIVER RISES HAVE JUST BEGUN TO
OCCUR.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BECOMES A
CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
124 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WEEK WILL
SEE SUNSHINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DOWN SOUTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS. SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR RUC THAT THE FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
OUR MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND LOW CLOUDS
AND TEMPS FOR THE AREA. WE HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE FCST
FOR TODAY AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE AS A RESULT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO OUR THINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. WE EXPECT THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO MOVE OUT/MIX OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL STAY DOWN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND VS. THE 50S THAT LOOKED LIKELY.
WE WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT DROP DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRATUS MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT. WE ARE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH LESS STRATUS.
THE NAM IS THE MAIN MODEL SHOWING THE STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
ITS CHRONIC ISSUE OF BEING OVER-SENSITIVE WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE
AND COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE SNOWPACK. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WED MAY ACTUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THEN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
CWFA. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH AND ADVECT A BIT OF WARMER AIR UP INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
MILD WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH AND EASTERLY FLOW THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO TRACK
UP THE OH VALLEY LEAVING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI DRY. TYPICALLY WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE FIND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. AS A RESULT I DID REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW. STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SYSTEM CLOSELY GIVEN THE FACT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMER FOR FRI NIGHT. THEY NO LONGER SUPPORT
SNOW. A SMALL CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. MORE COMMONLY THE CLOUDS LIMITED THAT
POTENTIAL. BASED ON THAT I TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD RAIN. STILL
THE RISK FOR RAIN IS LOW.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THE DIGGING WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. I DID KEEP THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SAT NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR MONDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP AND COULD SUPPORT STRONGER VALUES THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY
SHOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR KMKG
AND KGRR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT KMKG COULD STAY IFR INTO TONIGHT.
INLAND IT LOOKS LIKE THE IFR SHOULD RETURN FOR KAZO...KBTL AND
KJXN AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN. WILL STILL FEATURE MVFR OR BETTER FOR
KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOSE BY TO THESE SITES AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ONE
SITE BEING WATCHED IS AT HOLT ON SYCAMORE CREEK. THIS SITE IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS RIVER RISES HAVE JUST BEGUN TO
OCCUR.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BECOMES A
CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN GULF
COAST REGION WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MS. DRIER AIR ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOUGHER TO OVERCOME THAN PREVIOUSLY
SUGGESTED BY HRRR GUIDANCE IN THE PINE BELT REGION...AND THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST SE OF THE AREA
THIS AFTN. BUT CONTINUED STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA AND
LARGER RAIN SHIELD IS MOVING INLAND TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO...THE
EASTWARD SHIFT IN SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS RESULTING IN A QUICKER END
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER MEXICO...A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
DEEP LAYER AIR (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THERE TO BE A LULL IN PCPN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY THEN. POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
/EC/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COME THURSDAY MORNING A VERY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. THIS SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH
WILL FOCUS CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER MOST OF AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE GREATER RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REALIZED IN THE SHORT TERM LEADING UP TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED AND LOCAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
CWA. PWS WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EAST
OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DECREASING POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING OCCUR OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED BEFORE A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WAS MOVING INTO THE
KHBG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED THUNDER THERE UP TO KMEI WITH
JUST SHOWERS AT THE JACKSON SITES AND KGTR. CIGS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BUT MVFR MUCH OF THE TIME. LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
DROP TO IFR AT MOST SITES.
VSBY WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
FOG. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 65 60 72 / 87 70 79 86
MERIDIAN 60 68 60 73 / 97 71 65 85
VICKSBURG 55 65 59 72 / 71 59 85 90
HATTIESBURG 61 73 63 73 / 87 74 67 71
NATCHEZ 57 65 60 72 / 79 66 89 90
GREENVILLE 51 64 56 67 / 35 33 73 90
GREENWOOD 53 65 57 71 / 62 49 72 90
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ051-052-
056>058-063>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/22/SW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
GENERALLY THIS QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT
WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEING PUSHED BY A STRONG POLAR
JET IN SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE RAP HAS BEEN REPRESENTING THIS
FEATURE WELL HOWEVER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD IT
TOO WEAK AND TOO SLOW. USING THE RAP SOLUTION...WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW CLOUDS GENERATED BY THIS WAVE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN THE PAST HOUR AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
DEVELOPED IN THE COLUMBUS-NORFOLK AREAS. THIS WAVE ALSO BRINGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT TODAY...HOWEVER WE MAINLY EXPECT THIS TO
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. ACTUALLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE BRIEFLY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BASED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. 850 MB AIR
ALSO INCREASES A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH GOOD MIXING ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE LOWER 70S PREDICTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORDS SEEM SAFE ALTHOUGH THE RECORD HIGH IN
NORFOLK ON WEDNESDAY OF 74 MAY BE THREATENED. THESE ARE GOOD
PATTERNS TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OF
WARMER THAN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS
BUT VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK AND AIRMASS IS DRY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER BASED ON SOME CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIRMASS...THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 60.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY PER ECMWF AND
GFS WITH A REBOUND IN 850 TEMPERATURES BACK TO VALUES SIMILAR TO
THIS WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS PUSHING UPPER 60S
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...WITH A
SECOND WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED NEAR THE PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY SHOWING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT POOLING WAS
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD CLOSER
TO SLIGHTLY GREATER OVERALL LIFT AND MOISTURE BASED ON TRENDS FROM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT...WHILE THERE EXISTS 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION...BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING SUCH THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAY BE LARGELY DRY
OVERNIGHT. WRF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS...AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATER CLOSER TO THE JET ALOFT TO OUR NORTH.
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SEEMS QUESTIONABLE SIMPLY BASED ON THE
INCREASE OF 850MB AND 925MB OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTIVE OF MIXING AND
MORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. SREF GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...IS
BULLISH ON PROBABILITIES OF FOG PARTICULARLY EAST OF U.S. 1...AND
THE LATEST HRRR WRF SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG BEGINNING TOWARD
06Z SOUTHEAST OF KFAY AND KGSB. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATING A
GENEROUS LOW CLOUD PRESENCE LATE DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES THAT ARE MUCH
HIGHER THAN EVEN THAT MODEL/S FORECAST PROBABILITIES FOR FOG.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THE INCREASED WINDS THAT OCCUR AT 850MB AND 925MB OVERNIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE DURING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED WITH THE
TIMING...SUCH THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WRF ARW AND NMM GUIDANCE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...TOWARD U.S. 1 OR SO BY MID-
TO-LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 IN THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE DAY. FORCING DOES NOT SEEM GREAT WITH THE FRONT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH THE JET TO OUR NORTH AND THE DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL
WIND...BUT THE NAM DOES FORECAST AROUND 300J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6C/KM AND 6.5C/KM
WHICH IN MARCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDER. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST MID-LEVELS DRYING SO THAT BY LATE AT NIGHT
WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT KAFP TO KCTZ.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE DIFFICULT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE DIMINISHING OF LOW CLOUDS. LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV MOS GUIDANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND WITH EARLIER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND WITH A BLEND OR
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE
FRONTAL TIMING IS LATER ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET. HIGHS AROUND
70 IN THE TRIAD TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 80 OVER THE FAR SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S TOWARD KIXA TO 50 TO 55 IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE ATTAINED MARCH 11...CONSIDERING THE FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES THINK THE BETTER CHANCE OF THAT...IF IT WOULD
OCCUR...WOULD BE AT KFAY WHERE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DATE
IS 62 SET IN 1925.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA INITALLY EARLY
ON THURSDAY AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. DRY AIR SURGING SOUTH AND
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS
EARLY EVOLUTION OF THE DAMMING SCENARIO. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF COULD
BE SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUN...WHICH WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH H85 FLOW SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT
BY MORNING...WITH POPS GRADUATED TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST.
DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE PROLONGED INTO SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS
IS DIABATICALLY COOLED...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE DAMMING IS AT ITS PEAK. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEARLY STEADY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST AND ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...
AND IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK TO
SCOUR OUT THE DENSE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EARLY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE WEDGE AS A SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE
OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP HIGHS NORTHWEST IN THE 50S...WITH MID 60S
SOUTHEAST. A MORE NORTHERLY POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
ZONE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHTER RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. UPPER TROF FINALLY ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. POPS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS EXTENDED DAMMING EVENT ARE A TOUGH
CALL...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGHOUT THE PEAK OF THE DAMMING IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA...WEIGHTED HEAVILY IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z TO 08Z. FOR THE FORECAST WILL HAVE ALL SITES
IFR... BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE CEILINGS TO COME IN LOW
MVFR BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ON NAM AND GFS
MODELS SOUNDINGS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT WEDNESDAY...WITH
PREVAILING CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
15Z. WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT MIXING TO LIMIT FOG. FOR THE 18Z VALID TAF FORECAST...
ONLY HAVE THE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS SIX MILES IN LIGHT FOG. IF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WERE TO FORM...THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI WHERE THE SREF MODEL PROBABILITIES OF SUCH ARE HIGHEST
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS THE WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WHILE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
618 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE
A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RAINFALL FALLING ON THE SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND HAVE BEEN ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME DENSE FOG FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE ONLY
KEPT THE LAKESHORE AND TOLEDO AREA OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO
FAR BUT WILL EXPAND IT IF NEEDED. MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WERE
REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS WITH WOOSTER REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF ZERO. A COUPLE REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATED
THAT VISIBILITY WAS GREATLY REDUCED. IF DRIVING THROUGH THIS THICK
FOG TURN ON YOUR LIGHTS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE SO OTHERS HAVE A
CHANCE TO SEE YOU.
OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA NEAR
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THERE ARE LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS MUCH. ALTHOUGH A LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO BRING VISIBILITIES UP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL
THE CLOUDS DO AND THEN THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOWS. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP IT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WAS
ALREADY OCCURRING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR WHETHER THE DENSE FOG WILL GET WORSE. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUDS AND FOG KEPT THE LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...SOME FOG AND CLOUDS COULD BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE AN INVERTED TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH. RIVER LEVELS ARE RISING BECAUSE OF THE SNOW MELT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE MORE OF A RISE IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND THAT COULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT EXPECT A NICE WARM UP FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR FOR MID WEEK. TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VARIABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO START. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SCOOT
ACROSS FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE RAIN. MANY QUESTIONS FOR AFTER 00Z WED ON HOW LOW STRATUS
CAN BE AND/OR FOG POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED
FROM CHICAGO ACROSS LAKE MI INTO MI LAST NIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER CLOUD SHIELD. WITH RECENT RAIN AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEFORE MORNING IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HRRR SUGGESTING
LOW CONDITIONS TOO. FOR NOW HAVE TURNED THE TAFS AROUND AND HAVE
IFR TONIGHT. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EFFECTS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE FANFARE CROSSES THE
LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST TO EAST...STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DOMINATE NORTH FLOW FOR THE LAKE. FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ013-014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE
A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE
CLOUDS DO AND THEN THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOWS. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AT
INLAND LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHETHER
THE DENSE FOG WILL GET WORSE. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG KEPT
THE LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...SOME FOG AND CLOUDS COULD BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE AN INVERTED TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH. RIVER LEVELS ARE RISING BECAUSE OF THE SNOW MELT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE MORE OF A RISE IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND THAT COULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT EXPECT A NICE WARM UP FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING IN COOLER
AIR FOR MID WEEK. TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VARIABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO START. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SCOOT
ACROSS FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE RAIN. MANY QUESTIONS FOR AFTER 00Z WED ON HOW LOW STRATUS
CAN BE AND/OR FOG POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED
FROM CHICAGO ACROSS LAKE MI INTO MI LAST NIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER CLOUD SHIELD. WITH RECENT RAIN AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEFORE MORNING IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HRRR SUGGESTING
LOW CONDITIONS TOO. FOR NOW HAVE TURNED THE TAFS AROUND AND HAVE
IFR TONIGHT. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EFFECTS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE FANFARE CROSSES THE
LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST TO EAST...STAYING NORTH OF THE
LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DOMINATE NORTH FLOW FOR THE LAKE. FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO
PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
133 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT
KMFD. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC AND HRRR SUGGEST THE RAIN WILL
GET AS FAR NORTH AS KCLE SO HAVE EXPANDED THE LIKELY AREA. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF MOST LOCATIONS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA BY
MID/LATE MORNING. MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT RAIN REACHING NEAR A LINE
FROM MNN-MFD-CAK- YNG WITH LIKELY OR BETTER POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. DID BRING CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR A FDY-CLE-
GKJ LINE. BEST SHOT AT NOTHING...TOLEDO. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO SUN BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION THINK 45 TO 50 REASONABLE
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT PRECIP TO EXIT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE OVERNIGHT
DRY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
COOLEST AIR WILL BE NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND ZERO. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
FLOW...ESP WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE
SO WHILE SOUTHERN/SWRN COUNTIES MAY SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO
50...FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE LAKE 40 TO 45 SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME FRIDAY ASTER THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OHIO ON SATURDAY. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
THE MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY FAR SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MORE OF THE SOUTH. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AFTER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO RETREAT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO START. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO SCOOT
ACROSS FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE RAIN. MANY QUESTIONS FOR AFTER 00Z WED ON HOW LOW STRATUS
CAN BE AND/OR FOG POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED
FROM CHICAGO ACROSS LAKE MI INTO MI LAST NIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER CLOUD SHIELD. WITH RECENT RAIN AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEFORE MORNING IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HRRR SUGGESTING
LOW CONDITIONS TOO. FOR NOW HAVE TURNED THE TAFS AROUND AND HAVE
IFR TONIGHT. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EFFECTS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE APPEARS IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A LARGE
OPENING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHOALS BETWEEN THE WESTERN
BASIN AND CENTRAL BASINS. ONCE AGAIN...ICE FISHING INTERESTS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SHIFTING ICE FLOES CAUSING ENTRAPMENT ON THE
ICE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
136 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND KLAW AND KSPS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. BEYOND THAT...ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPS... FOG...
DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTN. CLEARING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND THE OBS TREND.
WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM... DID EXPAND
PATCHY FOG CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NWRN OK THROUGH 1 PM.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO INTERMITTENT LIFR VSBYS/CIGS
TO PERSIST THROUGH 13Z TO 15Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY 17Z TO 18Z...ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY 06Z WED.
AUSTIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RATHER HO-HUM WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AS THE UPPER WAVE THAT PROVIDED DECENT RAINS MONDAY CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG/DRIZZLE...AND OCCASIONAL RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
WE MAY STAY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-35 WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...ADEQUATE
SUNSHINE SHOULD COME THROUGH FOR US TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S
TODAY. THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE WEST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN...BUT AT THIS
TIME...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF
I-35.
BY SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT COLD...SO WILL KEEP 60S MOST PLACES.
AN EVEN STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EACH
DAY...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES LOOK TO BE DRY.
AUSTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 44 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 68 43 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 42 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 44 74 43 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 46 70 49 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
338 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE EUREKA RADAR ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS, BUT
IT`S LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS,
THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AT THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE CASCADES WITH 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS, BUT REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 6500 AND
7000 FEET TONIGHT, THEREFORE ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CRATER
LAKE AND ON TOP OF MOUNT ASHLAND.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -20 AND -22 C
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE BASED AND 850 MB LIFTED INDICES IN
THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
IN PARTS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OUT THERE.
THEREFORE WE`LL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 6500, BUT
IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO 6000 FEET IN AREAS
THAT GET HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOST SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AND WE`LL
HAVE A RETURN TO DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT..THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR SATURDAY LEAVING HIGHER POPS MAINLY COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOOL STILL SHOWING
70% CHC OF IVT EXCEEDING 500. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
RAIN FOR SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF KEEP SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE NW. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/18Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD BASE WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THE COAST BUT OVERALL WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS TO BOTH COOS AND CURRY COUNTY COASTS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED FROM MIDNIGHT ON WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREADING EAST INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. KRBG AND KMFR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS NEARBY. KLMT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD BE
PARTLY OBSCURED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 0335 PM PDT TUESDAY 10 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS, DUE TO WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. INITIALLY SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN WIND SEAS WILL
MIX WITH BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL AND MAY BECOME VERY STEEP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 TO 13 FT AT
AROUND 9 SECONDS. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH GALES FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECOND WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT...BUT SOME RUNS INDICATE WINDS REACHING
NEAR GALE FORCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FRONT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
236 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE EUREKA RADAR ARE SHOWING SOME RETURNS, BUT
IT`S LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS,
THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE
COAST THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AT THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
THE CASCADES WITH 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS, BUT REMAINING
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 6500 AND
7000 FEET TONIGHT, THEREFORE ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CRATER
LAKE AND ON TOP OF MOUNT ASHLAND.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -20 AND -22 C
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE BASED AND 850 MB LIFTED INDICES IN
THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
IN PARTS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OUT THERE.
THEREFORE WE`LL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 6500, BUT
IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO 6000 FEET IN AREAS
THAT GET HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOST SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AND WE`LL
HAVE A RETURN TO DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT..THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND.
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR SATURDAY LEAVING HIGHER POPS MAINLY COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOOL STILL SHOWING
70% CHC OF IVT EXCEEDING 500. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
RAIN FOR SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF KEEP SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
DRYING FROM THE NW. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/18Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD BASE WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THE COAST BUT OVERALL WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS TO BOTH COOS AND CURRY COUNTY COASTS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED FROM MIDNIGHT ON WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREADING EAST INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. KRBG AND KMFR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS NEARBY. KLMT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD BE
PARTLY OBSCURED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 0400 AM PDT TUESDAY 10 MAR 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CHOPPY WIND WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY
SWELL WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...BUT A SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FEET
WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CREATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO
12 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE SLUG OF
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE GULF INTO LA/MS...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW LOW CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES
BUT CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WAA HAS
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S/50S.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WILL WIN OUT
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG WAA COMBINED
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MID STATE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH LI VALUES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LATEST WPC QPF IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF NOW KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SHOW
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. ASOS LOCATIONS HAVE MEASURED 0.50 TO
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
ABOUT HALF WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL/WPC QPF SHOWED.
NEVERTHELESS...STILL LOOKING AT 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND MAY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IN OUR
ESF.
BY SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z EMCWF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS
INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS IT LINGERS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING IT
EASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THINGS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH AND DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 52 64 50 65 / 70 40 20 80
CLARKSVILLE 47 62 49 62 / 40 20 20 80
CROSSVILLE 52 63 49 63 / 90 70 20 80
COLUMBIA 54 65 52 67 / 80 50 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 55 65 53 68 / 80 60 40 80
WAVERLY 49 63 49 63 / 40 30 20 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1239 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAT PARIS TN ATTM AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. AREA OF BEST LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE TAPERED POPS AND QPF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND MENTIONED DRIZZLE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH COOLER
READINGS ACROSS NE AR TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
MILDER...UPPER 60S...POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NE MS.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1107 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAT PARIS TN ATTM AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. AREA OF BEST LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE TAPERED POPS AND QPF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND MENTIONED DRIZZLE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH COOLER
READINGS ACROSS NE AR TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
MILDER...UPPER 60S...POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NE MS.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED
WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WAS ADVECTING NORTH ALONG THE CORE OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET. PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASINGLY
OVERNIGHT. AT 00Z...THE OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM JAN RECORDED A PWAT
VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES WITH THAT VALUE HAVING NOW INCREASED INTO THE
1.6-1.7 INCH RANGE PER RUC INITIALIZATION. THIS PRECIP CERTAINLY
IS NOT TRULY DRIVEN BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES BUT IT IS EFFICIENT
NONETHELESS. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING MODEL QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAS SLOWLY BEEN CATCHING UP.
PREFERRED RAPID REFRESH AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AS
IT HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIP. OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY HYDRO-RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AND MORE IN THE FORECAST...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HI-RES MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES
NORTH. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL NOT COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHUNTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND HAVE
KEPT THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY NOON ON TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION IS SHOWN CONCLUSIVELY ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THIS CONNECTION WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RATHER UNIQUE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME AS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO VERY LOW LATITUDES. IT IS NOT
OVERLY UNCOMMON BUT IT IS ANOMALOUS TO SEE A 500 MB TROUGH DIG SO
DEEPLY INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL UPHOLD
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEVER COMPLETELY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG IT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THIS TIME...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE YIELDING MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK AS THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A FURTHER WESTERN TRACK WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DO NOT THINK
THAT THIS AMOUNT OF POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY WILL BE
REALIZED...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW DRY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE.
AMAZINGLY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CUTOFF THE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE AGREEMENT BUT CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FEATURE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEAR THE
ARKLAMISS...MOVING NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... FOLLOWED 06Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
CORRELATED WELL WITH ONGOING TRENDS. GFS LAMP CIGS APPEARED TO BE
RELYING ON PERSISTENCE.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
528 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE WE
INITIALLY HAD BELOW 10 PERCENT POPS. EVEN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING WITH A THIN LAYER DRY AIR
RESIDING IN THE MID LAYERS AND A PERSISTENT HRRR MODEL SHOWING
MUCH OF THE RAIN DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID AND UPPER
VALLEY THOUGHT A 20 PERCENT FOR THE EVENING SHOULD COVER THIS
PATCH OF RAIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR AROUND 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IS
WHAT WE EXPECT AT THIS TIME. AS THE EARLIER FORECAST HAS STATED
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER BET OF RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY WHERE A DEEPER
LAYER OF MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED AFTER DATA
ARRIVES WITH THE 00Z BALLOON LAUNCH. ZONES AND POINT AND CLICK
UPDATED SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS TEXAS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN BEGINNING TO FORM TO
THE SOUTHWEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE
CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS AND MAINLY CAMERON COUNTY TOMORROW...SO
HAVE LIMITED POP TOMORROW TO RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE CURRENT
WAVE EJECTS TO THE NORTH LATER TOMORROW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE FURTHER INTO OUR AREA...WITH MINIMAL POP
CHANCE AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SERIES OF 500 MB TROUGHS OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER STATES AND
INTO WESTERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 500 MB LOW BECOMES
CUT OFF BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE POOL
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHTER NORTH WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...HOLDING SEAS AROUND 4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 54 66 56 73 / 30 30 20 10
BROWNSVILLE 54 71 55 76 / 30 30 20 10
HARLINGEN 53 72 54 75 / 30 30 10 10
MCALLEN 53 74 55 76 / 20 20 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 53 74 53 79 / 20 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 63 58 71 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMER READINGS
WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRODUCTION OF GROUND FOG. THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW FOG THAT WOULD BE MORE DENSE. WILL KEEP JUST PATCHY FOG
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES
MODELS HAVE NOT JUMPED ON BOARD YET. OTHERWISE...THE SHORT-TERM
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MENTION 20
POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...OUT OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF BY
SATURDAY. THE MAIN PARENT TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES PERSISTENT TO WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN...GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE CUT OFF LOW TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST...THUS IT HAS LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST 20 POPS TUESDAY UNTIL THERE IS MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 70 51 72 50 / - 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 69 51 71 48 / - 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 70 51 73 49 / - 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 68 49 70 47 / - - - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 50 75 48 72 50 / - - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 68 50 70 48 / - - 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 71 49 73 48 / - - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 69 51 72 49 / - 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 69 50 71 50 / - 10 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 70 51 73 49 / - - 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 70 51 73 50 / - 10 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1115 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON. WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH VISIBILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME DRYING AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD DUE TO FOG AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH
VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. A TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MKE FROM 12Z SHOWED
ABOUT 1000FT OF FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THAT SHOW SOME DRYING AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL WI. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AT IFR LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH THE DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE
LAKE BUT HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO DISSIPATE ALONG THE SHORELINE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
IT WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT. THE WARMER TEMPS AND SNOW PACK
HAVE COMBINED TO HELP GENERATE A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS STREAMING
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR. THE HRRR IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS CLOUD DECK AND TAKES IT
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA...CLEARING IT OUT BY LATE
MORNING. THAT SEEMS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN. THIS PROCESS...PLUS SUNSHINE...SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE LOW
CLOUDS. BUT...THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE TOUGH WITH RESPECT TO LOW
CLOUD FORECASTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STILL ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON...SO WILL KEEP THE VERY MILD TEMPS
GOING. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5C HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AND OUR NRN
FORECAST AREA HAS LOST MOST OF ITS SNOW PACK. I TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT
SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW PACK THERE.
A WEAK SFC TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOP AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING QUITE LIGHT BY MORNING. NOT
TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT RIGHT NOW AND WILL LEAVE IT MOSTLY CLEAR
AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH CWA BY 18Z OR SO THEN NVA
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS CWA AT 18Z
AND THEN SHIFTS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL A LIGHT WIND
REGIME. THERMAL PROFILE COOLS FROM TUESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKES
ON A NW/SE ORIENTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT...AND THE COOLER REGIME WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE
EASTERN CWA. STILL SEEING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW/MID 50S IN
WESTERN CWA WITH 925 TEMPS CLOSER TO 5C THERE.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD AND RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH
SUPPORTS A REBOUND ONCE AGAIN IN THE 925/850 TEMPS. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SE...SO KEEPING THINGS COOLER IN THE EASTERN
CWA SEEMS REASONABLE BUT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH
40S NEAR THE LAKE AND SOME LOW 60S NEAR AND WEST OF MADISON GIVEN
THE UPTICK IN 925 TEMPS.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY PUSHING TOWARDS
SRN WI...IN FACT 84 HOUR NAM HAS RAIN SHIELD JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN
IL. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM MORE DOMINANT
WITH MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN WAVE REMAINING SOUTH OF WI. A NON-NAM
THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS A BOOST IN TEMPS SO HAVE STEERED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE 8-12C. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP
THE EAST COOLER WITH POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY COMPONENT.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DEGREE OF PROGRESSION AND EXTENT OF LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS A QUESTION MARK. HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A COOLER
AIRMASS DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
850/925 TEMPS COOL MARKEDLY FROM FRIDAY...SO INLAND AREAS LIKELY
TO NOTICE THE BIGGER TEMP DROP FROM FRIDAY/S WARMER READINGS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER BOUNCE BACK DAY AS SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST AND
RENEWED WARMING TAKES HOLD. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE
RETURN WARMTH THAN THE ECMWF AND AT THIS TIME FEEL SUPERBLEND IS
TOO COOL AND WILL BOOST MAXES A BIT. MAY NEED TO GO EVEN HIGHER
IF GFS THERMAL PATTERN HOLDS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO EXTEND INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. WITH 925 TEMPS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10C...MAY END UP
SEEING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS QUICKER ON
THE FROPA AND ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER VORT MAX IMPACTING THE AREA
WITH EVEN SOME SHOWERS GRAZING THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW AND BOOST TEMPS OVER SUPERBLEND.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED
NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST WI
TAFS. AT THIS WRITING...NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IT WILL REACH
MADISON...BUT GIVEN THE MOMENTUM...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW
CLOUD TRENDS OVER A SNOW PACK. AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND DAMP GROUND COULD LEAD TO MORE
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ058>060-062>072.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ644>646.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR