Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
353 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
PUSHES IT`S WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE/S
PASS SOUTH AND EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER`S WEAK COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THE SCATTERED FLURRIES TO PASS EAST AND WEAKEN. THE AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS - PARTICULARLY THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GFS) IS SUGGESTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. HRRR AND RAP ARE MORE OF A DEW/FROST SOUNDING. THINKING
HERE IS THAT THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO SUFFICIENT WIND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER (15+ KT).
WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...AM FCSTING STEADY TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES FOR THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. COASTAL AREAS STAY AROUND 32.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER`S TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THOUGH IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUILDS IN IN IT`S WAKE.
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT AN A BKN
STRATO CU DECK.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY THE LOWER 40S WITH A MOS BLEND USED.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE GOOD RADIATION. MOS HAS THIS INCLUDED AND
WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BECOME
MODIFIED BY DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A
FLURRY/SPRINKLE...THEN GRADUAL AFTERNOON DRYING. HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE ON MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL BERMUDA RIDGING BUILDING TUE INTO
WED...WITH A SHEARED OUT SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE RIDING UP
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TRACKING ALONG
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE REGION IS ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
PRECIP...WITH GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLES TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROB OF
.05" LIQUID TUE AFT INTO TUE NIGHT...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR ENTIRE REGION. IF PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH
TUE MORNING POTENTIAL FOR MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN...BUT BY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WED MORNING AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS AND NORTH OF THE
REGION WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
GRADUALLY FALLING FROM SEASONABLE ON WED TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND RIDGING SOUTH OF BERMUDA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO WEEKEND. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXITS ON STRENGTH OF
UPSTREAM BLOCKING...WHICH MANIFESTS IN DIFFERENCES IN PROGRESSION
OF A LATE WEEK GULF LOW PRESSURE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE WEEKEND.
IF BLOCKING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED A LONGER DURATION AND MORE
WINTRY PRECIP EVENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT AS
DEPICTED IN THE GFS...WHILE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
A QUICKER AND WARMER PRECIP EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING 8 DAYS AWAY HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR WITH MID CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. ANY FLURRIES END QUICKLY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...WITH IFR CIGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT FOG
DEVELOPMENT NOT AS LIKELY.
WSW SFC FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT END BY 23Z. SPEEDS LIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN...VFR. W SFC WND G20-25 KT.
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA.
.WED-THU...VFR
&&
.MARINE...
NO SCA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINDS GUSTING ON SUNDAY TO 25 KTS.
WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY 23Z. WINDS PICK UP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FROPA. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED MON THRU THU. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUE
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE WATER ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY...COLD
WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS THIS WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...TONGUE/NV
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
131 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
PUSHES IT`S WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN TO WESTERN SECTIONS WITH SHORT WAVE
ENHANCING LIFT AS SEEN IN IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHEASTERN PA AS OF 18Z.
BAND OF SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ON THE SOUTHERN
END AND HAVE THUS ADDED FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH. SOME OF THIS MAY
BE A SPRINKLE AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 30S.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO MAX AND EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER`S TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THOUGH IN THE MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS - PARTICULARLY THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GFS) IS SUGGESTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. HURR AND RAP ARE MORE OF A DEW/FROST SOUNDING. THINKING
HERE IS THAT THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO SUFFICIENT WIND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER (15+ KT).
WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...AM FCSTING STEADY TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES FOR THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT`S WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOKS TOO FAR TO
OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTION
OF PCPN. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SETUP FOR MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY`S WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH.
AGAIN...COMBINED MOISTURE AND LIFT DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A
CHANCE OF PCPN ANYWHERE...SO DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SUNDAY`S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF ITS PCPN SHIELD PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE CWA. ECMWF IS STILL
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND PCPN...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH WITH ITS PCPN SHIELD FROM THE TWO
PREVIOUS RUNS. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS BRING PCPN INTO THE CWA...AND
GLOBAL GEM STILL KEEPS US DRY. WITH NO STRONG TREND
ESTABLISHED...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR TUES AFTN
AND NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN KEEPS US DRY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND WITH SLOW DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS
WELL. AFTER HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A SHRINKING MIXING
DEPTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE LEAVES US WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN SPITE OF RISING LOW
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AS A WEAK CLIPPER PASS TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WSW SFC FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTN. A BKN-OVC
DECK AT 070-100 PRODUCES FLURRIES (MAINLY ALOFT) AS IT MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON - AROUND 19Z IN THE NY METRO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN AFTN...VFR. W SFC WND G20-25 KT.
.MON-WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
IN A WESTERLY FLOW WHICH GRADUALLY RAMPS UP LATE THIS AFT INTO
THIS EVE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LOOKS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON SUN AS WINDS VEER A BIT
MORE TO THE W/NW LATE IN THE DAY. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT BOTH DAYS AS IT LOOKS TO HIGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME.
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS MON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
255 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIP DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND OVER TO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS SEEN ROUNDING A STALLED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
BAJA REGION BEFORE EJECTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS CONVERGENCE RESULTS IN
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
FOR YOUR SATURDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH HAS WEDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING THIS COOL
AIR WEDGE FROM THE MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 07/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THIS
COOL/MOIST LOW LEVEL WEDGE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SATURATED AND HIGHLY INVERTED PROFILE BELOW 800MB. THE EARLIER LOWER
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RESULTED FROM THIS INVERTED MOIST
PROFILE...BUT WITH THE MARCH SUN WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT THIS
LAYER QUITE A BIT. NOW SEEING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE. FORECAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WILL THEREFORE FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP AND LOCAL WRFARW RUNS
ALL SUGGEST NOT AS FAVORABLE A LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING FOR
SUCH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO TRY AND LIFT NORTHWARD SLOWLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK
UPGLIDE REGIME ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09-12Z.
THEREFORE...WOULD STILL EXPECT SUNDAY TO START OUR MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY REAL
FORECAST DILEMMA FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER THE UPGLIDE WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE TREND OF THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BETTER
LIFT...SO FEEL THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT MIGHT IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT A FEW RAINDROPS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR
HIGHLANDS/DESOTO/CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
AGAIN...EITHER WAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD HAVE
LIMITED IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
READINGS TODAY AND WOULD ANTICIPATED MIDDLE 70S NORTH...MID/UPPER
70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FURTHER
SOUTH.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FEATURES OF SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT OVER N AMERICA. NORTHERN JET STREAM HOLDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WHILE SOUTHERN JET STREAM FLOW MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH QUASI CUT OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO THAT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF BY
THURSDAY CAUSING N CARIB RIDGE TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER FL AND
BAHAMAS.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BAHAMAS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING SE-SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CHANCE OF DIURNAL PRECIP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
THE GULF SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY THEN LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY RIDING
NORTH OF THE AREA ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY SEEN ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS
DO NOT APPEAR AS PESSIMISTIC FOR LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT AS
OCCURRED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO WILL KEEP EACH
TERMINAL AT HIGH END MVFR CIGS FOR NOW. WILL END ALL MVFR CIGS BY
15-16Z ON SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND
THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE ZONE...INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKEN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY THE MIDDAY HOURS
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GENERALLY LOW ERC VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 78 65 81 / 0 0 0 40
FMY 65 81 65 85 / 10 20 10 20
GIF 58 78 62 82 / 0 0 10 50
SRQ 60 79 64 81 / 0 10 10 30
BKV 52 79 59 83 / 0 0 10 40
SPG 62 77 66 80 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1028 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG TREASURE COAST...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER S FL WITH A BRISK N/NE FLOW
PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. AIRMASS NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE H100-H70
LYR WITH MRNG RAOBS MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 1.1" KXMR/KTBW...
INCREASING TO 1.5" AT KMFL. LCL DYNAMIC FORCING IS LACKING WITH
RUC40 SHOWING MINIMAL OMEGA LIFT THRU THE H85-H30 LYR...H30-H20
DIVERGENCE MARGINAL AT BEST. RADAR TREND/SFC OBS OVER THE PAST SVRL
HRS SHOWING MINIMAL PRECIP ONLY -RA/DZ ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
SUBTLE CHANGES CHANGES UPSTREAM COULD INCREASE PRECIP POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT POCKET IN THE
H90-H70 LYR POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE N FL PENINSULA...SECOND MAX
NOTED JUST OFF THE TREASURE COAST N OF THE NRN BAHAMAS. SHOULD
THESE TWO FEATURES LINK UP...LOW/MID LVL FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IN PLACE THRU THE 5KFT-15KFT LYR...WHILE
H70-H50 LAPSE RATES INCREASE UPSTREAM FROM 5.5C/KM E OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 6.5C/KM OVER THE NE GOMEX.
HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY...ALLOWING
THE N/NE BREEZE TO DIMINISH. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A LACK OF
LOW LVL INSTABILITY AS THE N/NE BREEZE GENERATES COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHILE CLOUD COVER LIMITS SFC HEATING. EVEN SO...WITH A SATURATED
H100-H70 LYR IN PLACE...WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY ALOFT...AND A SFC
BNDRY TO FOCUS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...CONCERN REMAINS FOR LCL HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TODAY/TONIGHT. INDEED...LCL WRF MODEL
CONTS TO INDICATE BANDING PRECIP OVER MARTIN/ST. LUCIE CO BTWN
00Z/12Z TONIGHT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT MODERATE FLOODING THREAT FOR
ST LUCIE/MARTIN CO AS HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL A WEEK AGO WHICH COULD
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER DUE TO NEARLY SATURATED GROUND.
FURTHER N...SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLDS ALONG AND N OF I-4 AS DRY
AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA (12Z KJAX/KTAE RAOBS MEASURED PWAT
VALUES ARND 0.2"). MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG.
MAX TEMP FCST OF M60S/L70S N OF I-4 AND L/M70S SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 08/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 08/00Z...N/NE 12-15KTS WITH OCNL SFC G20-23KTS.
BTWN 08/00Z-08/03Z...N/NE DIMINISHING TO 6-8KTS...CONTG THRU 08/12Z.
VSBYS/WX: E OF KTIX-KOBE...THRU 08/00Z OCNL MVFR/LCL IFR IN
-RA/DZ/BR...AFT 08/00Z SLGT CHC IFR SHRAS. W OF KTIX-KOBE VFR.
CIGS: E OF KTIX-KOBE...THRU 08/03Z IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH
OCNL LIFR BLO FL006...AFT 08Z/03Z MVFR BTWN FL020-030 WITH OCNL
IFR BTWN FL006-009. W OF KTIX-KOBE THRU 08/00Z MVFR BTWN
FL015-025 WITH OCNL IFR BTWN FL006-009. BTWN 08/00Z-08/03Z...
BCMG VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LCL BUOY NETWORK SHOWING SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE GENERATING 6-8FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE LCL ATLC.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY KEEP SFC WINDS BLO 15KTS S OF SEBASTIAN
INLET...BUT THE TIGHT N/NE PRES GRAD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH WAVE
ENERGY INTO THE LCL WATERS...KEEPING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 9FT IN THE GULF STREAM DUE TO OPPOSING
COOL NRLY BREEZE AND WARM SRLY CURRENT.
THE MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTN
N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS HI PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SLOWLY
WEAKENS...CONTG INTO TONIGHT. STEPWISE REMOVAL OF THE SCA LOOKS
REASONABLE BEGINNING WITH THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS AT 4 PM
FOLLOWED BY THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. NO PLANS TO REMOVE
ADVISORY WILL FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...GLITTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1020 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIP DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND OVER TO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS SEEN ROUNDING A STALLED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
BAJA REGION BEFORE EJECTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS CONVERGENCE RESULTS IN
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
FOR YOUR SATURDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH HAS WEDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING THIS COOL
AIR WEDGE FROM THE MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 07/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THIS
COOL/MOIST LOW LEVEL WEDGE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SATURATED AND HIGHLY INVERTED PROFILE BELOW 800MB. BUKFIT SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SUBTLE LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW -10C...SUGGESTING THE LACK OF ICE AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR HETEROGENEOUS NUCLEATION.
HAVE ADDED THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FROM AROUND THE
PUNTA GORDA REGION...NORTHWARD TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING. LUCKILY...ALL FORECAST PROFILES SHOW THIS SATURATED
LAYER SLOWLY MODIFYING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD END
THE DRIZZLE AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES.
AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR FURTHER BACK INTO THE
WEDGE...THE LOW LEVELS ARE LESS AND LESS SATURATED AND ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THE CLOUDS ERODE. WHILE IT IS GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE...AM HOPEFULLY OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-4. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S MAY BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC FOR THESE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER THE MARCH
SUN IS NOT ALL THAT WEAK ANYMORE...SO ANY SUN AT ALL IS GOING TO
BOOST READING UP FAIRLY FAST. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT MESS TOO MUCH WITH
THE INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS. EITHER WAY THEY WILL NOT BE OFF BY ALL
THAT MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS. DO ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SITES GOING EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR AFTER 18Z. THE SETUP FOR
LOW END MVFR (BELOW 2KFT) OR IFR CIGS TONIGHT LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
AND FOR NOW WILL NOT GO WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CIG OR VIS RESTRICTIONS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING
SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MODERATE EAST/NE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 58 78 65 / 10 0 10 10
FMY 79 64 83 65 / 10 10 30 10
GIF 73 57 78 63 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 74 60 80 63 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 71 52 78 60 / 10 0 10 10
SPG 71 61 77 66 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
947 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
154 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID-
LVL CLOUDS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS HAS CREATED A SLIGHT THERMAL
DIFFERENTIAL OF COOLER TEMPS UNDERNEATH...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. MEANWHILE EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW POCKETS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING IN THE MID 20S..WHICH WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE PRECIP
AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN ANY OF
THE PRECIP STILL FALLING WILL BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. GUIDANCE
ALL INDICATES THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTING EAST LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ERODING MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
WITH MID-LVL FLOW SEMI-ZONAL AND SFC RIDGING SLIDING EAST...TEMPS
MON SHUD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 40S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. 950MB GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...HOWEVER LATER IN
THE WEEK THIS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT.
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUE...WITH A SFC WAVE BEING REFLECTED
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHUD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
CWFA WITH AN EXPECTED DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING A WELCOME THERMAL RIDGE OF 5 TO 7
DEG C AT 850MB TUE. THIS SHUD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY WARM INTO
THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 50S. SFC RIDGING APPEARS TO BE
STRETCHED...WITH A SECOND FOCUS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WOULD INDICATE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWEST TUE NGT. LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
154 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. SFC RIDGING WILL BE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN IL
WED MIDDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD MARINE AIR TO BLEED INLAND FROM A LAKE
BREEZE...AND LOCK AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE UPR 30S FOR
HIGHS WED. FURTHER INLAND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS HOLDING
ARND 5 TO 7 DEG C WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE A FEW UPR 50S TO 60
DEGREE READINGS WED AFTN.
THUR THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN MEMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SPREAD STEADILY RAMPS UP. THUR/FRI TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE LONGER TERM...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO BEEN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENN
VALLEY THUR AFTN. PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO BE EXPANSIVE...AND COULD
REACH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA THUR EVE. TEMPS SHUD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO LIMIT P-TYPE AS LGT RAIN...HOWEVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
COULD SEE A LGT RA/SN MIX THUR NGT. PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS OVERHEAD
FRI AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST FRI NGT/EARLY SAT. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS IN
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.
BEACHLER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* POSSIBLE HAZE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEPART EARLY
THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS
CALMNESS WITH ADDED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY
MIGHT ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG/HAZE IN MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE A LAKE BREEZE DOES INCH
SLIGHTLY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. GYY WOULD BE THE TAF SITE WHERE
IT WOULD SEEM POSSIBLE TO REACH ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST...BUT RIGHT NOW WOULD WEIGH THAT AS A SMALL CHANCE SO DO
NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. EAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
135 PM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES EAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.9 INCHES
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE LAKES AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
902 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A weak shortwave is still generating some mid-level cloud cover
and radar returns east of Champaign, but we expect that no precip
is reaching the ground. Mid and high clouds will continue to
stream into our southern counties from the SW, as a stationary
front lingers across southern IL. Weak high pressure between those
two features will provide relatively clear skies the rest of the
night in central IL. Light winds under the high pressure could
help radiational cooling and lingering moisture result in light
fog formation. DEC is the only observation showing any vis
restriction, with 7SM. HRRR and RAP vis outlooks both point toward
some fog in our south and north counties after midnight.
Confidence is low on dense fog forming, and even MVFR fog is a
marginal possibility. Will leave patchy fog in the grids after
midnight for our southern areas with more snow coverage on the
ground. Low temp forecast looks on track, with upper 20s north and
low 30s south. Updates were mainly to clouds and hourly temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the
remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures
from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid
40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite
imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead,
but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72
corridor.
The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog,
with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal
boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and
this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high
pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of
the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight,
as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing
widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model
have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern
flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson),
with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR
solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off
the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200
feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy
fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after
midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more
widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
High pressure area will slowly move across the region through
tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north
into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern
part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern
extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface
ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models
seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The
GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so
will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of
the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue
through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and
continuing through Wed night.
By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading
pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently,
all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period.
GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this
pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and
blend.
Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to
around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the
week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Will continue with VFR conditions this evening. Some concern
remains for fog development after midnight as surface temps cool
toward the dewpoints. Forecast soundings and visibility
projections in the HRRR and RAP show potential for some patchy
dense fog across our southern terminals. The NAM blankets the
entire area with dense fog. Will continue with MVFR vis for DEC
and CMI later tonight, with a tempo MVFR vis at SPI.
Winds this evening will weaken as high pressure settles over
northern Illinois and N Indiana. A southeast wind will develop
Monday morning, but speeds should remain at or below 10kt during
the day.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
144 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2015
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. H5
RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF/GFS AND ENSEMBLES
SHOWING VERY SIMILAR PICTURE AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH MAIN
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH SHORTWAVE FRIDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE NOW FAVORING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER OUR CWA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND SW
FLOW/GOOD WAA. MODELS SHOW POSITION OF LEE TROUGH NEAR KS/CO BORDER
WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAK. GOOD MIXING COULD STILL
PRODUCE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AT SOME LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A
WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
(WELL NORTH OF THE REGION) MOVES EAST. THIS COULD SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST DAYS STILL APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70. HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE SLIGHTLY VEERING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IN THE 14Z-19Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 19Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR SO BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
6KTS. SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW MID
AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
945 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST THRU THE ROCKIES BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE LEVEL
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MAIN WX
FEATURE WITH A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH AIDS IN INCREASING TEMPS WITH STRONG WAA ON SW FLOW.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD
W/ TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS INVERTED RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO AREA AS TROUGH PASSES. OVERALL SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE IN UPSLOPE REGION AS REGION UNDER
EASTERLY FETCH.
FOR AREA TEMPS THOUGH...925MB NUMBERS WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +15C
OVER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHS...AND +17C TO NEAR +21C
FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CAA WITH SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
GOING TO GIVE THE AREA HIGH TEMPS 5-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR SUN-MON...AND 60S TO NEAR 70S(WED)
FOR REST OF TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO START UP TO THE MID 30S BY END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE SLIGHTLY VEERING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IN THE 14Z-19Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 19Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR SO BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
6KTS. SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW MID
AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1127 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THIS EVENING. WE
HAVE NUDGED PCPN CHCS UP A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. WE HAVE ALSO CHANGED P-TYPE TO ALL SNOW.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE OUT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE AREA AND AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW
COMING INTO NRN LOWER. SOME OF THE ECHOES MOVED ACROSS KLDM A
LITTLE WHILE AGO WITH NO PCPN REPORTED. WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS JUST
THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ECHOES PRODUCING PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE DRY LEVELS BELOW 6-8K FT.
WE BELIEVE THAT ALL PCPN FALLING IS LIKELY SNOW AT THIS TIME. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE NOW LOW ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOW THAT WE HAVE
LOST SOME OF OUR HEATING FROM TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
ALSO LEADING TO ALL SNOW DUE TO THE RATES LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN
THE SHOWERS.
THIS WILL ALL MOVE OUT BY 06Z AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE STATE BY THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOW COVER. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO LOW
BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN
HELPED OUT BY MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. ONE OF THE WORST
PERFORMERS BY FAR HAS BEEN THE GFS RAW SFC TEMPS WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THE SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND THE
HI RES ARW HAVE SHOWN THE BEST SKILL AND THE GFS MOS HAS DONE BETTER
THAN THE RAW GFS DATA.
WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS... WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/WARM PROD AIMED
INTO SRN LWR MI ON TUESDAY. AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMP FCST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY... HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE OF
THE LAST TWO DAYS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S ON MONDAY AND NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES NORTH OF HOLLAND
MUCH COLDER.
IN THE NEAR TERM... THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA NORTH OF I-96 THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEPART
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE BE SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WHERE SNOW
MELT FROM TODAY HAS REFROZE. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUD/FOG FORMATION LATE AT NIGHT THE NEXT COULD NIGHTS AS THE NAM
SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 950 MB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION STREAMING UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...A HEALTHIER LOOKING
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT STAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. GENERALLY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK
MOSTLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. I DO STILL THINK WAS WINDS DECREASE TOWARD
MORNING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY FOG (MIST). THAT SHOULD
QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
UNLIMITED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING WOULD ONLY BECOMES A CONCERN
IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
954 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THIS EVENING. WE
HAVE NUDGED PCPN CHCS UP A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. WE HAVE ALSO CHANGED P-TYPE TO ALL SNOW.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE OUT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE AREA AND AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW
COMING INTO NRN LOWER. SOME OF THE ECHOES MOVED ACROSS KLDM A
LITTLE WHILE AGO WITH NO PCPN REPORTED. WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS JUST
THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ECHOES PRODUCING PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE DRY LEVELS BELOW 6-8K FT.
WE BELIEVE THAT ALL PCPN FALLING IS LIKELY SNOW AT THIS TIME. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE NOW LOW ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOW THAT WE HAVE
LOST SOME OF OUR HEATING FROM TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
ALSO LEADING TO ALL SNOW DUE TO THE RATES LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN
THE SHOWERS.
THIS WILL ALL MOVE OUT BY 06Z AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE STATE BY THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOW COVER. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO LOW
BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN
HELPED OUT BY MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. ONE OF THE WORST
PERFORMERS BY FAR HAS BEEN THE GFS RAW SFC TEMPS WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THE SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND THE
HI RES ARW HAVE SHOWN THE BEST SKILL AND THE GFS MOS HAS DONE BETTER
THAN THE RAW GFS DATA.
WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS... WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/WARM PROD AIMED
INTO SRN LWR MI ON TUESDAY. AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMP FCST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY... HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE OF
THE LAST TWO DAYS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S ON MONDAY AND NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES NORTH OF HOLLAND
MUCH COLDER.
IN THE NEAR TERM... THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA NORTH OF I-96 THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEPART
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE BE SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WHERE SNOW
MELT FROM TODAY HAS REFROZE. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUD/FOG FORMATION LATE AT NIGHT THE NEXT COULD NIGHTS AS THE NAM
SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 950 MB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION STREAMING UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...A HEALTHIER LOOKING
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT STAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. GENERALLY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK
MOSTLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE IS AN
AREA OF MID CLOUDS (CEILING NEAR 5500 FT) FROM NEAR APN TO JUST
NORTH OF MUSKEGON. THIS IS RELATED TO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY TONIGHT. ALL OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR...RAP...NMM...ARW AND NAMDNG5) ALL SHOW A
BAND OF SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW) DEVELOPING BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z
BETWEEN ROUTE 10 AND I-96. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS RACES EAST AND IS
GONE BY 06Z. IT NEVER GETS SOUTH OF I-96 EITHER. I PUT VCSH FOR
MKG...GRR AND LAN TO COVER THIS. IF THE SHOWERS ACTUALLY
DEVELOP...LIKELY THEY WILL BE SNOW AND THE TAFS MAY HAVE TO BE
UPDATED FOR BRIEF IFR SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THAT IS DONE THROUGH
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ONCE AGAIN AND LARGELY REMAIN SO THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS THERE SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NEAR THE
GROUND BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE AIR MIXED SO I WENT WITH MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. I DID NOT
BRING IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS I BELIEVE BOTH THEN NAM AND GFS
HAVE A SERIOUS PROBLEM WITH SNOW COVER AND HIGH RH ISSUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING WOULD ONLY BECOMES A CONCERN
IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOW COVER. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO LOW
BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN
HELPED OUT BY MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. ONE OF THE WORST
PERFORMERS BY FAR HAS BEEN THE GFS RAW SFC TEMPS WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THE SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND THE
HI RES ARW HAVE SHOWN THE BEST SKILL AND THE GFS MOS HAS DONE BETTER
THAN THE RAW GFS DATA.
WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS... WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/WARM PROD AIMED
INTO SRN LWR MI ON TUESDAY. AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMP FCST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY... HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE OF
THE LAST TWO DAYS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S ON MONDAY AND NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES NORTH OF HOLLAND
MUCH COLDER.
IN THE NEAR TERM... THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA NORTH OF I-96 THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEPART
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE BE SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WHERE SNOW
MELT FROM TODAY HAS REFROZE. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUD/FOG FORMATION LATE AT NIGHT THE NEXT COULD NIGHTS AS THE NAM
SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 950 MB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION STREAMING UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...A HEALTHIER LOOKING
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT STAYS TO OUR NOTHEAST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. GENERALLY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK
MOSTLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE IS AN
AREA OF MID CLOUDS (CEILING NEAR 5500 FT) FROM NEAR APN TO JUST
NORTH OF MUSKEGON. THIS IS RELATED TO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY TONIGHT. ALL OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR...RAP...NMM...ARW AND NAMDNG5) ALL SHOW A
BAND OF SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW) DEVELOPING BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z
BETWEEN ROUTE 10 AND I-96. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS RACES EAST AND IS
GONE BY 06Z. IT NEVER GETS SOUTH OF I-96 EITHER. I PUT VCSH FOR
MKG...GRR AND LAN TO COVER THIS. IF THE SHOWERS ACTUALLY
DEVELOP...LIKELY THEY WILL BE SNOW AND THE TAFS MAY HAVE TO BE
UPDATED FOR BRIEF IFR SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THAT IS DONE THROUGH
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ONCE AGAIN AND LARGELY REMAIN SO THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS THERE SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NEAR THE
GROUND BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE AIR MIXED SO I WENT WITH MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. I DID NOT
BRING IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS I BELIEVE BOTH THEN NAM AND GFS
HAVE A SERIOUS PROBLEM WITH SNOW COVER AND HIGH RH ISSUES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING WOULD ONLY BECOMES A CONCERN
IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1254 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES
ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA
MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND
NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS
BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY
BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED
THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST
EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.
CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO
NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C
AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7
WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT
MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C.
MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3-
5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE
FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW.
IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT
H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY
PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH AND
EXPAND EASTWARD...CAUSING THE ERN TROF TO LIFT NE AND DIMINISH IN
AMPLITUDE. THESE CHANGES WILL CAUSE ARCTIC AIR TO RETEAT AND WILL
ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO MAKE INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE
AREA...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE CHANGING PATTERN
WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...CONTINUING THE DRY
SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. IN FACT...EXCLUDING SUN...MANY
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN NEXT WEEK. FARTHER DOWN
THE LINE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO
NORMAL TEMP REGIME MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BLO NORMAL (MORE OF THE GEM ENSEMBLES OUT AT DAY 16
ARE SHOWING REBUILDING OF A FAR WRN NAMERICE RIDGE). PATTERN STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUN...2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY SAT NIGHT...850MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14C
MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT NW FLOW LES. AS WINDS BACK WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND APPROACH OF LOW PRES TROF...THE LIGHT LES
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF TO THE SW IN SRN MN/NRN
IA...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FARTHER N MAY
SPREAD SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. AFTER ANY LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES END
SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE...
850MB TEMPS OF -11/-12C SHOULDN`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHT LES SUN EVENING.
RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO WARMING FOR MON/TUE.
PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -11C MON MORNING TO
RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH BETTER MOISTENING INDICATED TO THE N AND E OF HERE...
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. SO...ONLY
EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A
BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS WON`T DOMINATE EITHER
DAY. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF
SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON-TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AT SOME POINT MON/TUE. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL TOP 50F EITHER DAY...BUT MORE
LIKELY OVER THE SCNTRL ON TUE.
BIGGEST MODEL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY IS FOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO TO BE QUICKER...AND THUS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
THRU UPPER MI SOONER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS YESTERDAY. WILL BE A
TREND TO MONITOR THAT MAY AFFECT TUE TEMPS. FOR NOW...THIS MEANS A
COOLER WED IS NOW EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING NOSES SE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WED...RESULTING IN THE ADDITIVE CHILL OF LIGHT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI. TIGHT 850MB TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR (10C DIFFERENCE FROM SW UPPER
MI TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SUPPORT A DECENT SFC TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WED
WHILE LWR 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE N AND E. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO MAY GENERATE PATCHY
-SN/FLURRIES WITHIN THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT...BUT AT THIS POINT...
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
ALTHOUGH WAA GETS UNDERWAY AGAIN THU...IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL
OF COLUMN MOISTENING IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR DEEPER
INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR TO THE N OF UPPER MI. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FCST FOR THU.
12Z GFS CONTINUES ALONG THE LINES OF SOME PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING
WHAT WOULD LIKELY END UP AS A MIXED PCPN EVENT FRI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. UNTIL OTHER
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...WILL HOLD OFF FROM INCLUDING AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
EXPECT CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. VSBY MAY DROP NEAR IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH BUT SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN AOB MVFR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN CIGS MAY LIFT AOA MVFR
WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE
SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER ALL BUT SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS IN W CNTRL ND AND MAY OR MAY NOT
CLEAR BY MORNING...MOST LIKELY THE WRN ZONES WILL SEE CLEARING 3
TO 5 AM. H925 WARM ADVECTION ALSO SUPPORTS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT LOWS...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM SHOWS COOLER TEMPS AFT 06Z IN
THE WEST...MOST LIKELY LINKED TO POSSIBLE CLEARING. FINALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS
ARE GOING CALM IN CNTRL ND AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST BY
MORNING. THEREFORE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN ND TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS NEAR SUNSET...AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S...A QUICK DROP LATE IN THE NIGHT IS
POSSIBLE. DID CUT SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN 2 TO 3 DEG BUT WARMED UP THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS HALTED THE DROP IN TEMPS
IN THE AREAS WITH SOME SNOW COVER. OVERALL STILL A FEW DEG WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BUT IF ALL VARIABLES COME TOGETHER WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST OF THE VALLEY. LESS
LIKELY WITHIN AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY SKY COVER
AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NE ND POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...ONLY SNOW LEFT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST REGION IF CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH STAY CLEAR OF THE AREA. LOADED LATEST RUC GUIDANCE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH 12Z...WHICH DEPICTS THIS IDEA NICELY. H925
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS STAY IN THE UPPER 20S DESPITE
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT ADJUST
WINDS PER RUC GUIDANCE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BASICALLY LIGHT AND
WESTERLY PICKING UP FROM THE SW TOMORROW. ONLY PRECIP IN FCST IS
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT...AND 18Z RUNS SEEM
TO BE PUSHING THIS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...HOWEVER NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES. NOT UNUSUAL FOR TEMP WARMUPS IN
THE LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SEASON TO BE UNDERDONE BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS IS THE CURRENT CASE. AREA REMAINS IN GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SFC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS GOING TO BE A WEAK LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NW ONTARIO
MON EVE. AHD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CONTINUED 925-850 MB WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT A WIND DROP OFF TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
ENOUGH CLEAR SKY TIME FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 20S. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN WRN/CNTRL ND MAY HOWEVER MESS THIS UP FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND TEMPS COULD HOLD UP HIGHER THAN THOUGHT. MONDAY WILL
SEE 925 MB TEMPS A GOOD 5-7C HIGHER THAN TODAY AND AS LONG AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWEST THAN IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RRV...40S
NRN DVL BASIN INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. NOTICED SNOW EATING ON
THE VSBL SAT PIC THIS AFTN IN THE KITTSON-W MARSHALL COUNTY AREA
AND ALSO SOME DIMINISHING IN THE SNOW PACK AROUND LANGDON WHERE
THE AMOUNTS ARE THE HIGHEST. PRETTY MUCH BARE GRAND FORKS SOUTH.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM NW CANADA INTO NW ONTARIO
WILL BRING A SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF PD OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT SO KEPT POPS BUT RESTRICTED THEM
TO 05Z-11Z PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A TAD COOLER AIR MOVES BACK SOUTH BEHIND THE WEAK LOW AS IT PASSES
EAST OF US ON TUESDAY...THEN A WARM UP ENSUES FOR WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN. STUCK TO THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. LOOKING AT EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR RIDGING WITH ONE WEAK WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. GFS/GEM LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE EAST. WILL IGNORE THIS AND STICK WITH
THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. GFS/GEM ALSO A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THIS
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE WARMEST MODEL AND WILL TRY
TO FOLLOW IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR CONDS WITH POTENTIAL MID LVL CIG OVER DVL THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN SW TOMORROW AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY SKY COVER
AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NE ND POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...ONLY SNOW LEFT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST REGION IF CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH STAY CLEAR OF THE AREA. LOADED LATEST RUC GUIDANCE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH 12Z...WHICH DEPICTS THIS IDEA NICELY. H925
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS STAY IN THE UPPER 20S DESPITE
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT ADJUST
WINDS PER RUC GUIDANCE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BASICALLY LIGHT AND
WESTERLY PICKING UP FROM THE SW TOMORROW. ONLY PRECIP IN FCST IS
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT...AND 18Z RUNS SEEM
TO BE PUSHING THIS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...HOWEVER NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES. NOT UNUSUAL FOR TEMP WARMUPS IN
THE LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SEASON TO BE UNDERDONE BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS IS THE CURRENT CASE. AREA REMAINS IN GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SFC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS GOING TO BE A WEAK LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NW ONTARIO
MON EVE. AHD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CONTINUED 925-850 MB WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT A WIND DROP OFF TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
ENOUGH CLEAR SKY TIME FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 20S. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN WRN/CNTRL ND MAY HOWEVER MESS THIS UP FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND TEMPS COULD HOLD UP HIGHER THAN THOUGHT. MONDAY WILL
SEE 925 MB TEMPS A GOOD 5-7C HIGHER THAN TODAY AND AS LONG AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWEST THAN IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RRV...40S
NRN DVL BASIN INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. NOTICED SNOW EATING ON
THE VSBL SAT PIC THIS AFTN IN THE KITTSON-W MARSHALL COUNTY AREA
AND ALSO SOME DIMINISHING IN THE SNOW PACK AROUND LANGDON WHERE
THE AMOUNTS ARE THE HIGHEST. PRETTY MUCH BARE GRAND FORKS SOUTH.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM NW CANADA INTO NW ONTARIO
WILL BRING A SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF PD OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT SO KEPT POPS BUT RESTRICTED THEM
TO 05Z-11Z PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A TAD COOLER AIR MOVES BACK SOUTH BEHIND THE WEAK LOW AS IT PASSES
EAST OF US ON TUESDAY...THEN A WARM UP ENSUES FOR WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN. STUCK TO THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. LOOKING AT EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR RIDGING WITH ONE WEAK WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. GFS/GEM LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE EAST. WILL IGNORE THIS AND STICK WITH
THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. GFS/GEM ALSO A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THIS
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE WARMEST MODEL AND WILL TRY
TO FOLLOW IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR CONDS WITH POTENTIAL MID LVL CIG OVER DVL THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN SW TOMORROW AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
229 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT
TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS
NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SOUTHWEST AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL. LOW CONFIDENCE
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAIN/SNOW WILL IMPACT
VSBYS. DRY AND VFR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH GENERATING THE WEAK QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND LIMITED THE POPS NORTH AND FOCUSED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMER THAN EARLIER THOUGH TODAY SO RAISED
HIGH TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE SNOW FREE AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXING NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES A
BIT INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOLLOWING THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS HAVE DELAYED INITIAL LOW POPS
WEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MADE SOME SKY COVER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY MVFR CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND
EAST TO JAMESTOWN. THEN NORTH FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. GOOD BIT OF CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF HERE SO LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING THEN
BROUGHT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE LAST TWO ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE INDICATED A CONSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 20 UTC AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN
MONITOR. MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF THIS TREND HOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DISTINCT
SLUG OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE -2C TO -4C COLD POCKET ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...THE
NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. THEN AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW
WORKING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA...WITH A 90KT-100KT JET STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RESIDE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW POSITION AND COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET. WEAKER JET DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SHIFTS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NOT VERY OFTEN YOU GET A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THIS IS THE CASE TODAY. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE
DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT QPF IF NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION PRODUCES ONLY MINIMAL BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SOUTHWEST AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL. LOW CONFIDENCE
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAIN/SNOW WILL IMPACT
VSBYS. DRY AND VFR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXING NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES A
BIT INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOLLOWING THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS HAVE DELAYED INITIAL LOW POPS
WEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MADE SOME SKY COVER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY MVFR CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND
EAST TO JAMESTOWN. THEN NORTH FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. GOOD BIT OF CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF HERE SO LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING THEN
BROUGHT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE LAST TWO ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE INDICATED A CONSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 20 UTC AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN
MONITOR. MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF THIS TREND HOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DISTINCT
SLUG OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE -2C TO -4C COLD POCKET ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...THE
NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. THEN AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW
WORKING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA...WITH A 90KT-100KT JET STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RESIDE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW POSITION AND COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET. WEAKER JET DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SHIFTS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NOT VERY OFTEN YOU GET A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THIS IS THE CASE TODAY. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE
DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT QPF IF NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION PRODUCES ONLY MINIMAL BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT KJMS AND KDIK THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE
AT KDIK BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING TO MVFR STATUS AT KMOT/KBIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VCSH
WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KDIK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. A CLEARING SKY WILL INITIATE AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MADE SOME SKY COVER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY MVFR CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND
EAST TO JAMESTOWN. THEN NORTH FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. GOOD BIT OF CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF HERE SO LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING THEN
BROUGHT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE LAST TWO ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE INDICATED A CONSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 20 UTC AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN
MONITOR. MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF THIS TREND HOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DISTINCT
SLUG OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE -2C TO -4C COLD POCKET ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...THE
NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. THEN AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW
WORKING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA...WITH A 90KT-100KT JET STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RESIDE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW POSITION AND COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET. WEAKER JET DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SHIFTS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NOT VERY OFTEN YOU GET A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THIS IS THE CASE TODAY. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE
DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT QPF IF NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION PRODUCES ONLY MINIMAL BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT KJMS AND KDIK THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE
AT KDIK BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING TO MVFR STATUS AT KMOT/KBIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VCSH
WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KDIK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. A CLEARING SKY WILL INITIATE AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1100 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT
RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHERN OHIO HAVE NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND
THROUGH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ALOFT. UNDER A MODERATE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH A WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS THAT HAD BEEN VARIABLE ARE NOW IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...GIVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS
SCENARIO. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN TO SEE RAIN. CINCINNATI IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AT DAYTON AND COLUMBUS THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD VARY FROM
AROUND A HALF AN INCH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DOWN TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE BOOSTED BY WARM ADVECTION...REACHING
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 50 BY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN REGION OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT MID WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS WED/THU FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO
THE UPR 50S SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. PW/S EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.2 INCHES
OR GREATER THAN 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY JET.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING TIMING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THRU THE WEEK HAVE POTENTIAL TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACRS THE SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL ON
SATURATED GROUND FROM SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO FLOOD PROBLEMS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.
MORE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WITH MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN ENDING PCPN
EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGH LEVELS OF RH IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS CAPTURING
THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH TOWARD
MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MIST AT MOST TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
TO GO ANY LOWER THAN THIS GIVEN THE UNRELIABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM AND THE GFS. SHALLOW MIST SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MONDAY EVENING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
717 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT
RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHERN OHIO HAVE NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND
THROUGH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ALOFT. UNDER A MODERATE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH A WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS THAT HAD BEEN VARIABLE ARE NOW IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...GIVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS
SCENARIO. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN TO SEE RAIN. CINCINNATI IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AT DAYTON AND COLUMBUS THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD VARY FROM
AROUND A HALF AN INCH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DOWN TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE BOOSTED BY WARM ADVECTION...REACHING
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 50 BY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN REGION OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT MID WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS WED/THU FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO
THE UPR 50S SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. PW/S EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.2 INCHES
OR GREATER THAN 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY JET.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING TIMING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THRU THE WEEK HAVE POTENTIAL TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACRS THE SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL ON
SATURATED GROUND FROM SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO FLOOD PROBLEMS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.
MORE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WITH MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN ENDING PCPN
EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGH LEVELS OF RH IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS CAPTURING
THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH TOWARD
MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MIST AT MOST TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
TO GO ANY LOWER THAN THIS GIVEN THE UNRELIABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM AND THE GFS. SHALLOW MIST SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MONDAY EVENING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
138 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH THEN AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS DONE TO SKY GRIDS ALLOWING FOR MORE CLEARING THAN
ANTICIPATED. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
930 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS HAVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY AFTER VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A
CURIOUS AREA OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE SNOW FIELDS OF MAINLY CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL HAS SUDDENLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT...A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
EFFECT OF ALL THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT IS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...NO NEW RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES COMPLIMENTS OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
PACK WILL FIGHT A LOSING BATTLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CROSS SAT NT...INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. SREF IS AS HIGH AS
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. DID NOT BUY THIS BUT
LEFT THE LOW CHANCE IN PER DEFERENCE TO IT...THOUGH NOT CERTAIN WE
CAN QUITE STAND SOMETHING UP.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO BE SATURATED BELOW INVERSION IN A
THICK ENOUGH LAYER FOR CLOUD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW
QPF OUTPUT IS SUSPECT. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY NT.
CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHIFTS N OF THE AREA ON
MON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FAR S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM WAVE PASSES TO THE S. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND SRN STREAM WAVE MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE TUG FORK...MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT LOWS RAISED A BIT...TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN NTS...AND THE SNOW
MELT RATE MAY SLOWLY INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CONTROLLED BY SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH ON THE
FIRST ONE...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS BY
AROUND 12 HOURS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND...HAVE BROUGHT SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE RAIN. COULD GET SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS DURING THE TIME THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING SO WILL NOT PUT IT INTO HWO JUST YET. JUST GET BRUSHED BY
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK
THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS OUR WAY. WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FREEZING FOG OUT OF THE OH RIVER TO AFFECT HTS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CODED A TEMPO WITH 2SM FOR HTS FROM 08-10Z.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH LIGHT TO CALM FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/07/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
114 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR...KEPT FORECAST SAME FOR
EVENING UPDATE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND
WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH
LOW LEVEL RH LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING
IN WHICH THE GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS
TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS (KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS
AND CURRENT SNOW COVER. THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE
IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN
MORE SO WITH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO HAVE SPEEDS CONTINUE AROUND 10-12KT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE SSW. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK 9-12KFT WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SHIFT EAST IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE DUE TO SNOW PACK BUT
THIS HAS NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING INTO ANY STRATUS DECK THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WEAK 925 COLD ADVECTION COULD PUSH ENOUGH OVERTURNING IN
MOIST LOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORN TO PERMIT STRATUS DECK TO
FORM. ATTM...LEFT A SCT DECK AROUND 1500FT TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY BUT THINK THAT WEAK CAA AT H9 WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
MATERIALIZE A CIG.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1153 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
OUT THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN LATER. ADJUSTED MOST AREAS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING TO HIT MIN TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE 00Z NAM WAS SHOWING. 18Z
GFS WAS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN CHANCES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY
BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOW MELT. PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE TIMING. MVFR
CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND CEILINGS
WILL PROBABLY LOWER FIRST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY THEN SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR IFR/MVFR SNOW
AT KERI BUT WILL JUST MENTION "VICINITY" ELSEWHERE NE OH/NW PA UNTIL
WE GET GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN. AROUND MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING THAT A MARINE STRATUS DECK MIGHT TRY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WHICH SHOW AN OVERCAST
DECK NOW OVER KONP AND KTMK. IT IS TOUGH TO SEE EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING
ON DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE ON SATELLITE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE LATEST FCST MODELS
INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND THE RAP MODEL ARE INDICATING THAT THE
STRATUS MAY SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE THEN
INDICATING THAT THE CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH BACK OFFSHORE EARLY
SAT MORNING...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT OFFSHORE DRIFT THAT MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS EARLY SAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WASHINGTON.
THEN EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY
SAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND HIGH 50S OR LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. PYLE
.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
JUST OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED THE REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON TURNING THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND
SAT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN.
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WA AND VANCOUVER ISLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SINK S SOME MON AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FLATTENS IT. THIS WILL TURN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW LIGHTLY ONSHORE ACROSS AT LEAST THE N PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MON MODERATING TEMPS A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GFS
AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST MON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
AND SLIDE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO
MORE NORMAL MARCH WEATHER AND A RETURN OF SOME PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE PRECISE HANDLING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE...THIS SEEMS TO BE A HIGH POP AND LOW-MODERATE QPF EVENT
WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH AT MOST. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM SO WHILE SNOW LEVELS
MAY FALL ENOUGH TO ADD SOME SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER CASCADE
LOCATIONS...EXPECT ONLY RAIN BELOW AROUND 6000 FT OR SO AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ADDITION TO THE MEAGER CASCADE SNOWPACK THIS WINTER.
CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME IFR STRATUS ON PARTS OF THE COAST INTO EARLY SAT. PATCHY
FOG RETURNS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 08Z THROUGH
ABOUT 16Z SAT...PRIMARILY IMPACTING KEUG. SOME LOCAL FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS. /27
&&
.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 15 TO 20
KT GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PAC MON DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA
AND S OREGON COAST TUE AND WED.
SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3
FOOT COMPONENTS THROUGH TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER SEAS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY...AND NOW SHOWS 8 TO 10 FEET WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE TEENS IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
449 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES.
DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE TAFS. MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE FOR THE 21Z PACKAGE.
VERY FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. NOW EXPECT THESE TO MOVE
INTO MDT AND LNS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NWRN MOUNTAINS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR BUT WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS.
MON-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS
THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD
RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890.
IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES
WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES
SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NWRN MOUNTAINS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR BUT WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS.
MON-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE
COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE
PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET
IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE
THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD
LOW WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS
BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
106 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BENEATH FAST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...FRONTAL WAVES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER
AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS
FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. GENERALLY
THE SPREAD IS MINIMAL. THE MOST DISCERNIBLE NORTHERN STREAM H5
S/WV ENERGY AND WEAK SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS FROM
LATER SAT THRU SUNDAY...BUT WITH SYSTEMS BEING QUITE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOISTURE REMAINING QUITE LIMITED WITH NO GULF INFLOW..WATER
EQUIVALENTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODEL QPFS ARE GENERALLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS BELOW 0.25 INCH AND
48HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS
ENDING 00Z TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND GRADUALLY WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE INCLUDE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...SRN PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF
THE BAHAMAS. GEFS AND NAEFS SHOW A BROADER VERSION OF THIS PATTERN
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM
THE WRN ATLC NWWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN/CNTRL CONUS INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. ONE TREND THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TROUGH INTO
CONFLUENT FLOW/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE MID ATLC ON
TUESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A NWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN FIELD
WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE
RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF
TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NWRN MOUNTAINS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR BUT WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS.
MON-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE
COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE
PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET
IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE
THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD
LOW WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS
BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1230 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM...VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR THE CWFA...AS
DRY HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPS ARE ABOUT ON TRACK TO REACH
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF NORMAL THIS AFTN UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SFC HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UNDER CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW. SHUD BE ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEG WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
BRING SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...ESP MID-LATE AFTN. BUT
OTHERWISE...NEAR PICTURE PERFECT DAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
50S TO LWR 60S IN THE MTNS AND GENERALLY UPR 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR TODAY WITH SW WINDS (W TO
NW AT KAVL) INCREASING TO ABT 8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE SEEN SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...STILL VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND BECOME LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
948 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...TEMPS OFF TO A SLOW START FROM CHILLY MORNING
LOWS...BUT STILL EXPECT NICE RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS
AFTN. FCST IS ON TRACK.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR TODAY WITH SW WINDS (W TO
NW AT KAVL) INCREASING TO ABT 8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE SEEN SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...STILL VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND BECOME LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR TODAY WITH SW WINDS (W TO
NW AT KAVL) INCREASING TO ABT 8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE SEEN SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...STILL VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND BECOME LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW (W TO NW AT KAVL) AROUND
8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW (W TO NW AT KAVL) AROUND
8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
838 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8
PM CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WAITING ON THE 00Z
MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BUT THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THUS
SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
THE MID 40S.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ONE SYSTEM
AFTER ANOTHER INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH WILL BRING THE SFC LOW NEAR MEMPHIS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE SFC
LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE COULD BE A
LULL IN THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF ENDS RAIN
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER TROF. FOR NOW KEPT AT LEAST
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BR LOOKS
LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...CIGS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR
LEVELS...MAYBE LOWER BY SUNRISE. STEADY RAIN SHOULD RETURN AT ALL
SITES EARLY TOMORROW AND IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
934 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHERE ITS NOT RAINING...BUT
LEFT HIGH POPS IN FOR THE 1AM TO 7AM PERIOD. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
AREA OF FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SINCE WE DO NOT FEEL
VISIBILITIES WILL STAY 1/4 MILE OR LESS MUCH LONGER AS SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AND THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AS WELL. IF MORE SITES
CRATER TO/BELOW 1/4 MILE...THEN AN ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED.
DUE TO THE TIME CHANGE...THE NAM IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE FOR THE
EVENING NEWS BROADCASTS. WE DO HAVE THE CURRENT HRRR HI-RES WHICH
CONFIRMS THAT THE RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. LOTS OF METEOROLOGY AND DYNAMICS...LIFT FROM A JET
COUPLET...ISENTROPIC ASCENT...HIGH PWATS...MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL GULF FETCH...ARE AT WORK WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...THE FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE TWO OR MORE INCHES SHOULD FALL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
75
&&
COULD
BE ISUEDWEA
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED AND WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT IT IS OFTEN A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR VERY LOW CIGS AND VSBY. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FIGURING
OUT HOW LOW CIGS/VSBY WILL GO...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
CURRENT TAFS ARE NOT PESSIMISTIC ENOUGH. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
COOL AND ARE NEAR OR BELOW CURRENT DEWPOINTS WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS THAT STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 100-200 FT POSSIBLE. VSBY MAY ALSO GO
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE TWO MITIGATING
FACTORS. ONE IS THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW ZONES INCLUDING WACO...AND
THE OTHER IS THAT INCREASING RAIN ACTIVITY WOULD TEND TO HELP
IMPROVE VSBY AS SUSPENDED HYDROMETEORS ARE FLUSHED TO THE GROUND
BY FALLING RAINDROPS.
FOR METROPLEX TAFS...WILL SHOW CIGS NEAR 500FT FOR MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO 600-700FT OCCURRING AFTER
SUNRISE. WILL KEEP VSBY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT MAIN PERIOD OF STEADY MODERATE RAIN MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND LATE AFTERNOON.
FOR WACO...HAVE CIGS DROPPING TO 300 FEET THIS EVENING WITH VSBY
ALSO DROPPING DOWN TO A MILE. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE. STEADY RAIN SHOULD START THERE AT MIDNIGHT AND
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. TR.92
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE SKIES HAVE BECOME MORE BROKEN IN NATURE. TEMPS IN
GENERAL STILL LOOK ON TRACK ACROSS MOST AREAS...HOWEVER. THERE IS A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WE EXPECT
THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY INDICATING NEW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
THE 12 UTC FWD RAOB IN CONJUNCTION WITH GPS AND SATELLITE
DERIVED /BLENDED TPW/ PRECIPITABLE VALUES SUGGEST ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1
AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PLACES MOST OF THE REGION
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TRENDS
IN THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY SUCH THAT SOME AREAS OF OUR CWA WILL BE NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR SLOWLY NUDGES NORTHWARD. IN FACT...LOCATIONS MAY EVEN
WARM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES
AROUND THE QPF/POPS ON MONDAY. MOST HI-RES AND EVEN COARSE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
NOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCH CLOSER AND
CLOSER TO OUR CWA. CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE CENTERPIECE OF
FLANKING 300MB SPEED MAXIMA TOMORROW MORNING. THE RESULTANT
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE FROM THE COUPLING OF THESE JETS WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK OF THIS
CYCLONE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
SHOULD THIS LOW SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH...MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS...ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA SHOW A VERY MOIST
PROFILE...WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
WITH SUCH STRONG UPLIFT...WE DO FEEL THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN OUR CWA /MAINLY SHOWERS/ THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT THESE TYPES OF SATURATED PROFILES
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO BE EFFICIENT FOR THUNDER AND CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES /LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF GRAUPEL OR OTHER ICE THROUGH A GREAT DEAL OF THE PROFILE/.
THESE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
ISSUE AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO GROESBECK TO PALESTINE LINE THRU 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER AREAS WILL STILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAIN
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. RAINFALL SHOULD
REALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
15-BAIN
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT
OF THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO BACKING WINDS...AND THEREFORE WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION...WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CAUSING THE RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL NOT
MOVE FAR BEFORE BECOMING CUT OFF OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BECOMING CUT OFF...AND THEN RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNDERNEATH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS AND KEEP THE AREA SHUT
OFF FROM BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR
NOW...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD. 77.STALLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 47 50 46 64 46 / 80 90 40 10 5
WACO, TX 48 52 47 64 43 / 90 100 40 10 5
PARIS, TX 46 52 44 62 44 / 90 80 50 20 10
DENTON, TX 47 51 44 62 43 / 90 80 40 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 46 51 45 63 43 / 90 90 40 10 5
DALLAS, TX 47 51 46 64 48 / 80 90 40 10 5
TERRELL, TX 47 52 47 64 46 / 90 90 50 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 48 54 49 66 47 / 90 100 50 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 48 52 47 64 44 / 100 100 40 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 47 52 43 65 43 / 50 80 30 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ147-148-158-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
849 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
LATER TONIGHT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A WEAK/ELONGATED PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SHEAR EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING A THICKENING CANOPY OVERTOP LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE RIDING INTO FAR SW SECTIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADAR SHOWING MOST RAINFALL STILL WELL TO THE WEST PER
LATEST MOSAIC SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE INTO THE DRY AIR.
BOTH THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF SOLUTIONS DO BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO THE NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE DESPITE RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS. THEREFORE KEPT IN
SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH MORNING. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
TRICKY GIVEN TIMING/THICKNESS OF CLOUDS...AND POTENTIAL FOR
READINGS TO FALL MORE THAN EXPECTED ESPCLY EAST AND IN VALLEYS
OVER THE WEST IF CLOUDS FADE A BIT GIVEN THE DRY AIR. APPEARS
RANGE FROM LOW/MID 40S WESTERN RIDGES...TO MID/UPPER 30S EAST AND
BLUE RIDGE...TO AROUND 30 VALLEYS BEST AT THIS POINT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW BUMPS IN THE ROAD. SATELLITE
SHOWS FEW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE MEAN WESTERN UPPER TROF.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT AND MODELS EVEN WANT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS. WILL USE A LOW CHANCE POP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. CLOUDS
SHOULD MAKE FOR LOWS TONIGHT A FEW TICKS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW/MID 40S EAST.
BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTH AND TAKE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS WITH THEM TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN READINGS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND
IN THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING AND LIMIT SOME OF THE EARLY SUN. UPPER
50S/LOWER60S WEST LOW/MID 60S EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE NORTH...THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS BACK
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEEPING IT WET THIS PERIOD AS WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE
EAST COAT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WITH MODEST RAINFALL WORKING ACROSS
TN/KY AND EDGING INTO WV. WPC SHOWING SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS FAR EAST AS OUR SE WV COUNTIES...WHICH WILL COVER TUE
INTO WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE LINGER INTO
MIDWEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING ALONG IT.
STILL FAVORING OUR NRN AND WRN CWA WITH HIGHER POPS TUE-TUE NIGHT
THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. VARIATIONS EXISTS
IN THE MODEL QPF FIELDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR SE COUNTIES TO DRY
OUT TUE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF WINTER WX...THE MODELS ALL FAVOR MAINLY
RAIN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MTNS OF NE GREENBRIER INTO BATH COUNTY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED.
THE FRONT BISECTS CWA WEDNESDAY WITH MAIN BELT OF RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FEW
AREAS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S MTNS TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE
RAIN WILL GO MILD IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
WEST...WITH HIGHS FROM 50 TO 55 MTNS/ROA...TO AROUND 60 SOUTHSIDE
VA...NW NC PIEDMONT.
STAYING MILD TUESDAY AS FLOW VEERS SW THEN WEST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND POTENTIAL BUST DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AND
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS AND
SUPERBLEND. THE GFS SHOWING HIGH 67 IN ROANOKE...WHILE ECMWF HAS
59...THINKING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPS...BUT STILL MILD
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
GOING TO STAY WETTER THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE 12Z ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS TROUGHY AS
THE 12Z GFS THATS SHOWING A COLDER UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF BY NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS OUR AREA WILL STAY IN A FAVORABLE SW FLOW
ALOFT WHILE AT THE SFC A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH THURSDAY
WHICH TAKES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
OVERRUNNING LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHANCE OF RAIN.
MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA PRODUCING AN COOL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE
WEDGE...THOUGH OVER FAR SW VA 50S ARE LIKELY THU-FRI WITH MORE OF SE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND DESPITE RAIN.
THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN COMES FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS FROM THE
GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO KY. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE KY/WV AREA WITH MODERATE RAIN WORKING INTO OUR MTNS WITH
LOWER QPF EAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE TIMING OF THIS WILL FAVOR OVERRUNNING INTO SATURDAY. WILL SEE
WANING OF RAIN SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT WITH DRY SLOT WORKING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT AT OR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THU-FRI IN
THE WEDGE AND AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FAR SW...WITH AROUND
NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE A SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT SUNDAY...
OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE WHILE MODELS DO BRING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER US TONIGHT
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARS EAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO WANT
AND DEVELOP SOME MVFR CLOUDS AT KLWB/KBLF MONDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN
DRY AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...WILL KEEP ANY LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERED WITH NO CIGS OTHER THAN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
ALL THE TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART.
WEAK IMPULSE PASSES EARLY MONDAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO WIN OUT
DURING THE DAY WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING IN SOME STRATO-CU ACROSS
THE WEST. THINK MOST OF THIS TO REMAIN SCATTERED UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SO WONT INCLUDE ANY MVFR CIGS OR PRECIP AT
THIS POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUB-VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND THEN PERSIST
MOST AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS AN AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE PIVOTS NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SLOWLY RETURN NORTH INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
500 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM PREDAWN HOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST AREA ENJOYING AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. LINGERING RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS STILL HAVE A LOCK ON A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DECENT AMOUNT OF FORCING
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STRONGEST
MID LAYER PV-ADVECTION FORCED LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A BAND OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. MODELS STILL
VACILLATING WITH QPF PLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. EITHER WAY...THE SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO A TRACE TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER
20S.
ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN INTO THE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE GENERAL WARM
SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW WARM/DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE PLAINS INTO OUR AREA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S ON TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE MODELS TRY TO BUILD A
SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WOULD DRAW SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM CANADA. THIS IN TURN WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SOME...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. PLAN ON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 40 TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY...COOLING INTO THE 40S ON
SATURDAY.
OF COURSE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES COMES MELTING OF SNOW AND THE
NEED TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO SPIN SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA SUN
MORNING...WITH SOME 850-700 MB QG CONVERGENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LEADING IT IN. FAIRLY GOOD SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INDICATED VIA THE NAM12...MOSTLY FROM 09-18Z
SUN...AND CONFINED TO IA. RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO
THE DEEPER SATURATION ALSO HOLDING ACROSS IA. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN
THERE AS A RESULT...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THESE CHANCES WILL WORK IS IN
QUESTION. SOUNDINGS AT KRST/KLSE AREN/T GIVING CLEAR-CUT
ANSWERS...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION AND SOME
LIFT AROUND 12Z FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WITH -SN...WHILE THE GFS
BUILDS SOME SATURATION BUT NOT CLEAR CIGS WOULD GO MVFR NOR WOULD
-SN BE LIKELY. MEANWHILE THE RAP LEANS TOWARD MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT WOULD KEEP -SN SOUTH. WILL
TREND THE FORECAST THIS WAY. AT THE MOMENT...IF ANY -SN DID
FALL...PROBABLY MORE FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL VSBY IMPACT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. 07.00Z MODEL SUITE STILL STRUGGLING WITH TEMPERATURES
SHOWING VASTLY DIFFERENT THERMAL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH...LEANING
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE EXTREMES GIVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
SOUTHEAST ND WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN WI WITH WEAK/SHALLOW
LIFT AND A DRIER AIR MASS FARTHER SOUTH LIMITING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES GIVEN WARM START TO THE DAY. IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH GIVEN AROUND 25 KTS
IN THE NEAR SURFACE MIXED LAYER.
THE FORECAST AREA GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FIRST MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH WARM FRONTAL SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SECOND EJECTS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NE INTO NORTHERN MO. 07.00Z
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...DROPPED POPS FOR ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHEAST IA. IF ANY
ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING
AT BEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WHAT LITTLE SNOW DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PERSIST REGION-WIDE THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE A FEW
MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
IN GENERAL...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MN/IA BORDER AND THEN STALLS IT OUT IN THIS AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF ONLY BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS EASILY EXCEEDS 20
DEGREES FOR MID-WEEK. LOOKING AT THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HOWEVER
SHOWS MORE MEMBERS FAVORING THE WARMER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN THIS
WAY WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
BY THURSDAY...WESTERN CONUS 500 HPA RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOCATION VARIATIONS IN THE STALLED
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE GFS KEEPS THE WARMEST AIR
WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERSELY..THE ECMWF BRINGS A
NOSE OF +12 TO +15 CELSIUS AT 925 HPA AS CLOSE AS SOUTHWEST MN.
WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY COULD DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT MUCH.
ALL SAID...SPRING WILL BE IN FULL FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL MELT A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IF NOT
THE ENTIRE THING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH WATER
LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MELTING COULD ALSO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES. RAP GENERATES STEEP LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS THINK THAT IS BEING OVER DONE...SO
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
352 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH CO TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE
WESTERN LOBE OF THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SWD THROUGH UT AND
NV...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EWD AND SWD TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH OF
CO BY 00-03Z THIS EVENING. SO...BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY SHOWERS
WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP BEING
OBSERVED...IS A HINT THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY OVERDOING THE
QPF POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT
THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NMM AND ARW...INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED
THIS IN FAVOR OF THE RAP AND NAM...WHICH HAVE LESS PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY THE SRN MTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE MORNING. IN
ADDITION...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD...SINCE THERE SEEMS
TO BE A BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING THERE
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. POPS WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER 03Z AND
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO ZERO BY 12Z TUESDAY.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AS H7
TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT MINUS TWO DEG OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
PLEASANT SPRING-LIKE DAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MILD CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS GETTING JUST BELOW
FREEZING...AND TEENS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LIKELY. ANY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND L70S OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF COOLING (50S/60S) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING OUT TO 10 DAYS...NO SIGNIF PRECIP EVENTS APPEAR TO BE ON
THE HORIZON. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLD-SCT SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MTN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES APPROACHES
LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PCPN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NE NJ AND LI...WHERE THERE COULD BE OF MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. TO THE NORTH...IT SHOULD BE SNOW BUT
WITH EVEN A LOWER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL PA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM.
AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED
ALL OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND IN SOME
CASES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT PICK UP IN THE SW FLOW. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF A RISE IS UNCERTAIN. NYC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS CLEAR BY NOONTIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOST OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH NYC METRO LIKELY IN THE MID 30S.
A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT NE INTO A CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFT/EVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN. IN
RECENT DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LIGHT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH UP
TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT FROM S TO N
DURING THE LATE AFT HOURS.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL
PROBABLY BE STUCK WITH BKN-OVC SKIES TO START. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TEMP OF THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE DELAYED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THINKING IS THAT WE END UP MOSTLY 50-55 ACROSS THE
AREA. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WNW WINDS AND NOTING THAT MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
COLD BIAS AS OF LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDS NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONSENSUS AT LEAST SHOWS A
SLOWING DOWN ON PCPN ONSET. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR FRIDAY AFTN FOR ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT...PASSES OVER OR NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A 500MB
LOW THEN POTENTIALLY HELPS FORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW...OR AT LEAST
SHARPEN A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH COULD AFFECT US ON SUNDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE INITIAL LOW...WITH THE
GFS FARTHEST SOUTH AND THE GGEM IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND A THERMAL PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT MIXED PCPN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SIMPLE. PCPN TYPE CAN BE FINE TUNED ONCE A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS.
ALSO HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD CAPPED AT CHC. ONE THING
THAT COULD BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 14Z. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AT
KTEB....KHPN...AND KISP. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
AFTER 13Z BEFORE ENDING AROUND 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE METRO AREA. WIND BECOMES MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY AT THE METRO NYC TERMINALS. THIS EVENING THE WIND BECOMES
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 300 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 11 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 11Z TO 14Z. WIND 16Z TO 23Z 290 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN RETURN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S...AND BRIEFLY 50S
WED...COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK-UP
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK.
THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT COULD
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
354 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
215 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS SOUTH OF I-80
AND IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY
DAY. UPPED HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE WE WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM RATHER EFFICIENTLY.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPOTS HITTING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. THERE IS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE MAY FORM TODAY...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT ONE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IF A LAKE
BREEZE WERE TO FORM...EXPECTING IT TO HUG THE SHORE AND NOT TRAVEL
VERY FAR INLAND.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-88 AS I THINK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH WE COOL TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88.
AREAS NORTH OF I-88 WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR...SO
HAVE THOSE SITES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING TO AROUND 30.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
258 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO THE TYPICAL HUGE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY
WINDS SETTING UP OFF THE LAKE.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY SOARING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN CHICAGO AND FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE
LINGERING SNOW IS LEAST LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENSURE THAT THE TASTE OF
SPRING WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED IN LAKE ADJACENT AREAS WITH ONSHORE
WINDS LIKELY TO KNOCK 15-20F OR MORE OFF DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. WELL INLAND IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN THREATENING TO MAKE A RUN AT LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY WITH
HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 30S
WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
THE MELTING SNOW COULD ADD ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
POSE A THREAT OF SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING IN THE LIGHT WIND REGIME. AS SHALLOW COLD MARINE LAYER
SPILLS INLAND WEDNESDAY SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARINE FOG ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE AMBIENT AIR MASS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE OVER TAKING IS NOT TERRIBLY MOIST.
OTHER CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
SPREADING INTO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
WEEK AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF MID-UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND POTENTIALLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THEN HIGHS WOULD BE COLDER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISING FOR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT HIGH SO
STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLENDED CONSENSUS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS FOR
NOW.
OVER THE WEEKEND GFS/ECMWF BOTH PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST NOAM WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT JUST
BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR OUR WARMEST DAY OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY GETTING
WELL INTO THE 60S IF CURRENT ECMWF/GFS PAN OUT.
IZZI
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* NONE.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 4 KT THROUGH MID MORNING. OUTLYING AREAS LIKE
DPA AND RFD MAY SEE FOG REDUCE VSBY TO ARND 4SM...BUT NOT
EXPECTING FOG AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME SSW...AND MAYBE
DUE SOUTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. A LAKE
BREEZE MAY FORM AS THE LAND HEATS TODAY...BUT THINKING IT WILL
ONLY HUG THE SHORE IF ONE DOES INDEED FORM. WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN AT LESS THAN 10 KT. CIRRUS ALSO
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. EAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
234 AM CDT
GENERALLY FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FAST MOVING LOW TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES
TONIGHT WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO FRESHEN UP TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STRONG WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER LAND AND WATER TEMPS HOLD JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHERLY THOUGH WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED SPEEDS. COULD BE SOME MARINE FOG DEVELOPING TUES NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE COLD
MARINE LAYER WILL ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO
DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH FOG IN GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
322 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
A ridge of high pressure extends from the mid-Atlantic states into
the central Plains early this morning, cutting across central and
southeast Illinois. The presence of this ridge, and associated weak
pressure gradient, will keep winds light/variable for most of today.
The high pressure will also be associated with quiet weather,
although cloud cover will be slowly increasing from the south as the
disturbance expected to impact southeast Illinois tonight draws
closer. Visible satellite loops from late yesterday afternoon
suggest much of the snow cover has been lost across the forecast
area over the past two days. However, the lingering snow cover is
still likely to impact high temperatures for at least one more day.
Expect most of the snow free portions of the forecast area to break
50 degrees today. The remaining snow will have the greatest impact
on temperatures along the I-72 corridor east of Springfield (and
east from Champaign to the Indiana border), as well as south of the
I-70 corridor. These areas with lingering snow stand the best chance
of remaining in the mid-upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
Deep trof digging in over the SW CONUS and over the Baja peninsula
will be the driving factor in the weather for the next week. Same
upper level trof is the initiation of a couple of waves that start
surface systems over the Gulf Coast that move into the Ohio River
Valley and skirt the Midwest with some precip chances. First one
forming over southern Texas now and spreading moisture and cloud
cover across the southern tier of the country. Rain chances
increasing after midnight and into tomorrow, mainly south of
Interstate 72 corridor. Same deep trof breaking the flow over the
CONUS into two streams as warmer air dominating the country through
the work week. Temps well above normal through the week...with much
of the snowpack expected to melt today...and more sunshine
tomorrow...temps into the upper 50s/near 60 in the west. So far,
temps on Wednesday climbing to around 60/lower 60s...and guidance
struggling to warm the temps with 850mb at 6C-7.5C.
Next system still having major disconnect with timing of onset of
precip. Starting again as a wave out of the deep western trof,
skirting the coast and into the Ohio River Valley...ECMWF much
quicker than the GFS. But both of the models have another wave
digging into the nrn stream colliding with the system. The ECMWF
uses the northern wave to help bump the system out rather
progressively. GFS lagging considerably, keeping the nrn waves
influence more minimal in the divided flow. Precip chances spread
into the first half of the weekend a matter of probability spread at
this point in the blended guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Only a few observation sites across central IL are showing any
signs of vis reduction late this evening, with no MVFR vis
observations to this point. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP
are showing less potential for fog to affect any terminal sites
later tonight. They have delayed the onset of any fog in the south
and north, and have diminished its coverage from previous
forecasts earlier this evening. The NAM continues to blanket
nearly the entire area with dense fog, but that looks considerably
overdone. Will go with a tempo for high MVFR vis for DEC and SPI
later tonight, and remove any fog from CMI.
Winds will be light and variable under high pressure the rest of
the night. A southeast wind will develop Monday morning, but speeds
should remain at or below 10kt through Monday evening.
Rain will begin to approach our southern forecast area late Monday
night, but no precip is expected during this TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1234 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
154 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID-
LVL CLOUDS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS HAS CREATED A SLIGHT THERMAL
DIFFERENTIAL OF COOLER TEMPS UNDERNEATH...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. MEANWHILE EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW POCKETS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING IN THE MID 20S..WHICH WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE PRECIP
AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN ANY OF
THE PRECIP STILL FALLING WILL BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. GUIDANCE
ALL INDICATES THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTING EAST LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ERODING MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
WITH MID-LVL FLOW SEMI-ZONAL AND SFC RIDGING SLIDING EAST...TEMPS
MON SHUD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 40S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. 950MB GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...HOWEVER LATER IN
THE WEEK THIS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT.
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUE...WITH A SFC WAVE BEING REFLECTED
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHUD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
CWFA WITH AN EXPECTED DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING A WELCOME THERMAL RIDGE OF 5 TO 7
DEG C AT 850MB TUE. THIS SHUD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY WARM INTO
THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 50S. SFC RIDGING APPEARS TO BE
STRETCHED...WITH A SECOND FOCUS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WOULD INDICATE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWEST TUE NGT. LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
154 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. SFC RIDGING WILL BE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN IL
WED MIDDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD MARINE AIR TO BLEED INLAND FROM A LAKE
BREEZE...AND LOCK AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE UPR 30S FOR
HIGHS WED. FURTHER INLAND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS HOLDING
ARND 5 TO 7 DEG C WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE A FEW UPR 50S TO 60
DEGREE READINGS WED AFTN.
THUR THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN MEMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SPREAD STEADILY RAMPS UP. THUR/FRI TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE LONGER TERM...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO BEEN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENN
VALLEY THUR AFTN. PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO BE EXPANSIVE...AND COULD
REACH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA THUR EVE. TEMPS SHUD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO LIMIT P-TYPE AS LGT RAIN...HOWEVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
COULD SEE A LGT RA/SN MIX THUR NGT. PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS OVERHEAD
FRI AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST FRI NGT/EARLY SAT. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS IN
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.
BEACHLER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 4 KT THROUGH MID MORNING. OUTLYING AREAS LIKE
DPA AND RFD MAY SEE FOG REDUCE VSBY TO ARND 4SM...BUT NOT
EXPECTING FOG AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME SSW...AND MAYBE
DUE SOUTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. A LAKE
BREEZE MAY FORM AS THE LAND HEATS TODAY...BUT THINKING IT WILL
ONLY HUG THE SHORE IF ONE DOES INDEED FORM. WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN AT LESS THAN 10 KT. CIRRUS ALSO
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. EAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
135 PM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES EAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.9 INCHES
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE LAKES AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A weak shortwave is still generating some mid-level cloud cover
and radar returns east of Champaign, but we expect that no precip
is reaching the ground. Mid and high clouds will continue to
stream into our southern counties from the SW, as a stationary
front lingers across southern IL. Weak high pressure between those
two features will provide relatively clear skies the rest of the
night in central IL. Light winds under the high pressure could
help radiational cooling and lingering moisture result in light
fog formation. DEC is the only observation showing any vis
restriction, with 7SM. HRRR and RAP vis outlooks both point toward
some fog in our south and north counties after midnight.
Confidence is low on dense fog forming, and even MVFR fog is a
marginal possibility. Will leave patchy fog in the grids after
midnight for our southern areas with more snow coverage on the
ground. Low temp forecast looks on track, with upper 20s north and
low 30s south. Updates were mainly to clouds and hourly temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the
remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures
from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid
40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite
imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead,
but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72
corridor.
The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog,
with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal
boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and
this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high
pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of
the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight,
as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing
widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model
have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern
flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson),
with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR
solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off
the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200
feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy
fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after
midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more
widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
High pressure area will slowly move across the region through
tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north
into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern
part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern
extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface
ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models
seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The
GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so
will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of
the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue
through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and
continuing through Wed night.
By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading
pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently,
all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period.
GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this
pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and
blend.
Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to
around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the
week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Only a few observation sites across central IL are showing any
signs of vis reduction late this evening, with no MVFR vis
observations to this point. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP
are showing less potential for fog to affect any terminal sites
later tonight. They have delayed the onset of any fog in the south
and north, and have diminished its coverage from previous
forecasts earlier this evening. The NAM continues to blanket
nearly the entire area with dense fog, but that looks considerably
overdone. Will go with a tempo for high MVFR vis for DEC and SPI
later tonight, and remove any fog from CMI.
Winds will be light and variable under high pressure the rest of
the night. A southeast wind will develop Monday morning, but speeds
should remain at or below 10kt through Monday evening.
Rain will begin to approach our southern forecast area late Monday
night, but no precip is expected during this TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
506 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A WARM WARM FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SNOW WAS
BREAKING OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PER THE RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY IR SATELLITE IMAGERY(COLDER
CLOUD TOPS). THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT VORTICITY MAX
ASSOCIATED W/THIS SYSTEM AIDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE
00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED
THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE BEFORE DAYBREAK W/SOME SNOW
MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS AS WELL. A
DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG W/GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. 00Z UA
& MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700MBS. SSE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR SOME OVERRUNNING
LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF 15-20:1. QPF WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO. THIS COUPLED W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE FORCING AND DYNAMICS
WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
106 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL REGION OF THE STATE. AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTENT FROM BAXTER STATE PARK EASTWARD INTO THE
HOULTON-PATTEN REGION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SOME ENHANCED ECHOES
OVER MT. KATAHDIN W/LIFT AND LLVL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SNOW.
DECIDED TO ADD SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN REGION AS WELL.
THE MESOSCALE NAM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL WERE HANDLING THIS QUITE WELL
PER THE LAST 3 HRS. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO FIT THE LATEST
OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FORCING WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WE COULD SEE
A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
BRIEF RIDGING CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE NORTH AND 15 TO
20 ABOVE CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SNOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ST
JOHN VALLEY MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING TUESDAY. AM
FAVORING THE GFS ON THE QPF. DUE TO CLOUDS AND GRADUAL PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING JUST OVER 40F. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT BE AS FORTUNATE WITH
HIGHS CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS.
HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 30S. THE COLD
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SHARPLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THIS WILL GIVE BANGOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS ABOVE 40F
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JAN 18. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF H925-H850
MOISTURE TO QUICKLY CREATE WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN ZONES.
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE FAIRLY ROBUST WITH VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT EXCEEDING THE H700 LEVEL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AND WIND CHILLS
LIKELY BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THURSDAY EVENING AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TOWARDS THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUBZERO
READINGS IN THE ALLAGASH. CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JOINS FORCES WITH A MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THESE TWO STREAMS WILL PHASE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING LATER FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERATE LIKELY POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERINIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
START VFR AND THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR...AND EVEN BRIEF IFR AT
TIMES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR NORTH OF HUL TUESDAY WITH MVFR SOUTH OF
HUL DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PROVIDE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF HUL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS
LATER MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER SCA IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
319 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH WILL BE DRY
AND WARM. A DRY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 12Z. A FLAT
NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAP SOUNDINGS HAD MIXING TO
NEAR 600 MB CENTRAL AND W TODAY...AND MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB OVER
THE E. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. HAVE
RAISED THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. WHILE WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT VERY STRONG...A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE GOOD MIXING. LEE
TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG
TIMBER TO KLVM. THE LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT
CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS W OF KBIL. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ON TUE AND MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS TODAY/S MIXING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO THE
WARMING AIRMASS.
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HAVE
LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR TODAY AND TUE. TUE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR KBIL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD...WHICH IS 71
DEGREES...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST. THE MEAN 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY
A WEAK TROF PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY BEFORE IT AGAIN
BUILDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. WE ARE CARRYING A LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE IN
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...BUT OTHERWISE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT
DRAPES ACROSS THE REGION IN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
CARRIED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY...DRIVING TEMPS INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE TROF. DID BUMP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROSPECTIVE CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY POINT TO COOLER THAN ADVERTISED TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS
OF -4C TO -5C AND 850MB TEMPS OF 10C POINT TO MIX DOWN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S. DID LOWER TEMPS INTO LOW 60S AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS GET CLOSER IN TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETURNS FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFIES AND SLIPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING KBIL AND KLVM...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN KLVM AND K6SO BY THIS AFTERNOON. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 036/068 040/073 044/062 039/066 037/070 045/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/B 11/B
LVM 062 036/064 041/072 045/058 037/064 037/066 047/068
0/N 00/N 01/E 13/W 21/U 00/B 11/N
HDN 068 033/071 036/074 041/063 037/068 036/074 039/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/U 01/B
MLS 064 033/067 036/071 042/060 038/064 036/066 043/069
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 063 031/067 034/075 039/061 036/065 033/068 037/070
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/B 00/U 01/B
BHK 061 030/064 033/071 041/058 035/062 032/063 036/066
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 061 029/065 034/074 038/060 037/064 031/071 039/073
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 00/U 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
605 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES APPROACHES
LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND W/SW WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN SHARP TEMPS RISES ALONG THE COAST. THUS...WILL MAKE A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN/SNOW STILL A
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT RAIN IS SEEMING MORE LIKELY AT THE COAST AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.
THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PCPN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NE NJ AND LI...WHERE THERE COULD BE OF MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. TO THE NORTH...IT SHOULD BE SNOW BUT
WITH EVEN A LOWER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL PA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM.
AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED
ALL OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND IN SOME
CASES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT PICK UP IN THE SW FLOW. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF A RISE IS UNCERTAIN. NYC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS CLEAR BY NOONTIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOST OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH NYC METRO LIKELY IN THE MID 30S.
A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT NE INTO A CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFT/EVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN. IN
RECENT DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LIGHT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH UP
TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT FROM S TO N
DURING THE LATE AFT HOURS.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL
PROBABLY BE STUCK WITH BKN-OVC SKIES TO START. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TEMP OF THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE DELAYED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THINKING IS THAT WE END UP MOSTLY 50-55 ACROSS THE
AREA. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WNW WINDS AND NOTING THAT MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
COLD BIAS AS OF LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDS NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONSENSUS AT LEAST SHOWS A
SLOWING DOWN ON PCPN ONSET. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR FRIDAY AFTN FOR ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT...PASSES OVER OR NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A 500MB
LOW THEN POTENTIALLY HELPS FORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW...OR AT LEAST
SHARPEN A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH COULD AFFECT US ON SUNDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE INITIAL LOW...WITH THE
GFS FARTHEST SOUTH AND THE GGEM IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND A THERMAL PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT MIXED PCPN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SIMPLE. PCPN TYPE CAN BE FINE TUNED ONCE A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS.
ALSO HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD CAPPED AT CHC. ONE THING
THAT COULD BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 14Z. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AT
KTEB....KHPN...AND KISP. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
AFTER 13Z BEFORE ENDING AROUND 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE METRO AREA. WIND BECOMES MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY AT THE METRO NYC TERMINALS. THIS EVENING THE WIND BECOMES
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 300 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 AROUND 11 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 10Z TO 13Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE FROM LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN 11Z TO 14Z. WIND 16Z TO 23Z 290 AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -RA.
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN RETURN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S...AND BRIEFLY 50S
WED...COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK-UP
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK.
THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT COULD
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER ALL BUT SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS IN W CNTRL ND AND MAY OR MAY NOT
CLEAR BY MORNING...MOST LIKELY THE WRN ZONES WILL SEE CLEARING 3
TO 5 AM. H925 WARM ADVECTION ALSO SUPPORTS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT LOWS...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM SHOWS COOLER TEMPS AFT 06Z IN
THE WEST...MOST LIKELY LINKED TO POSSIBLE CLEARING. FINALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS
ARE GOING CALM IN CNTRL ND AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST BY
MORNING. THEREFORE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN ND TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS NEAR SUNSET...AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S...A QUICK DROP LATE IN THE NIGHT IS
POSSIBLE. DID CUT SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN 2 TO 3 DEG BUT WARMED UP THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS HALTED THE DROP IN TEMPS
IN THE AREAS WITH SOME SNOW COVER. OVERALL STILL A FEW DEG WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BUT IF ALL VARIABLES COME TOGETHER WE
COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST OF THE VALLEY. LESS
LIKELY WITHIN AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FCST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIALLY SKY COVER
AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NE ND POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...ONLY SNOW LEFT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST REGION IF CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH STAY CLEAR OF THE AREA. LOADED LATEST RUC GUIDANCE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH 12Z...WHICH DEPICTS THIS IDEA NICELY. H925
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TEMPS STAY IN THE UPPER 20S DESPITE
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT ADJUST
WINDS PER RUC GUIDANCE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...BASICALLY LIGHT AND
WESTERLY PICKING UP FROM THE SW TOMORROW. ONLY PRECIP IN FCST IS
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT...AND 18Z RUNS SEEM
TO BE PUSHING THIS NORTH AND OUT OF THE CWA...HOWEVER NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES. NOT UNUSUAL FOR TEMP WARMUPS IN
THE LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SEASON TO BE UNDERDONE BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS IS THE CURRENT CASE. AREA REMAINS IN GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SFC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS GOING TO BE A WEAK LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NW ONTARIO
MON EVE. AHD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CONTINUED 925-850 MB WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT A WIND DROP OFF TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
ENOUGH CLEAR SKY TIME FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 20S. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN WRN/CNTRL ND MAY HOWEVER MESS THIS UP FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND TEMPS COULD HOLD UP HIGHER THAN THOUGHT. MONDAY WILL
SEE 925 MB TEMPS A GOOD 5-7C HIGHER THAN TODAY AND AS LONG AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWEST THAN IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RRV...40S
NRN DVL BASIN INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. NOTICED SNOW EATING ON
THE VSBL SAT PIC THIS AFTN IN THE KITTSON-W MARSHALL COUNTY AREA
AND ALSO SOME DIMINISHING IN THE SNOW PACK AROUND LANGDON WHERE
THE AMOUNTS ARE THE HIGHEST. PRETTY MUCH BARE GRAND FORKS SOUTH.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM NW CANADA INTO NW ONTARIO
WILL BRING A SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF PD OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT SO KEPT POPS BUT RESTRICTED THEM
TO 05Z-11Z PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A TAD COOLER AIR MOVES BACK SOUTH BEHIND THE WEAK LOW AS IT PASSES
EAST OF US ON TUESDAY...THEN A WARM UP ENSUES FOR WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN. STUCK TO THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. LOOKING AT EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR RIDGING WITH ONE WEAK WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. GFS/GEM LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE EAST. WILL IGNORE THIS AND STICK WITH
THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. GFS/GEM ALSO A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THIS
WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE WARMEST MODEL AND WILL TRY
TO FOLLOW IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
MID LEVEL CIG CURRENTLY OVER RRV AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ND AND NW/W CNTRL MN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BACK EDGE OF 8K
TO 10K FT SWATH CURRENT MOVING JUST EAST OF A MOT TO BIS
LINE...AND WILL REACH RRV NEAR 12Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE PREDOMINANTLY SW TOMORROW AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY OF WEATHER TODAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST TODAY. AS IT DOES SLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN
THAN THE SOUTH.
THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN EATEN AWAY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL MAKE THE 50S...WITH JUST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES STAYING IN THE
UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AS S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AS H5 FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING PCPN INTO
THE SRN COUNTIES BY 12Z.
INVERTED SFC TROF LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOCUSING THE
BEST LIFT AND PCPN SE OF I-71. UPPED POPS SOME MORE IN THE SE FOR
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODELS WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THE GFS IS BRINGING IN OVER AN
INCH ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. THE NAM IS MORE MUTED WITH AROUND
HALF AN INCH. CONSIDERING THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH
TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THROW OUT ITS SOLUTION AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN WILL NE A QUICK
HITTER WILL NOT ISSUE AND FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHUNT THE PCPN EWD ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE SE AT THE ONSET OF TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION RANGING
FROM THE MID 30 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN KY. DESPITE THE RAIN
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THE 50S FOR MOSTLY LOCATIONS. MOST
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE THE UPPER 50S AND A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTH COULD MAKE 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN REGION OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT MID WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS THU FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPR 50S
SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. PW/S EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.2 INCHES
OR GREATER THAN 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY JET.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING TIMING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THRU THE WEEK HAVE POTENTIAL TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACRS THE SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL ON
SATURATED GROUND FROM SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO FLOOD PROBLEMS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.
MORE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WITH MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN ENDING PCPN
EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGH LEVELS OF RH IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS CAPTURING
THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH TOWARD
MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MIST AT SOME TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY LOWER THAN THIS GIVEN THE UNRELIABLE GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS. SHALLOW MIST SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MONDAY EVENING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO IS FORECAST TO KEEP DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT
RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHERN OHIO HAVE NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND
THROUGH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ALOFT. UNDER A MODERATE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH A WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS THAT HAD BEEN VARIABLE ARE NOW IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...GIVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS
SCENARIO. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN TO SEE RAIN. CINCINNATI IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AT DAYTON AND COLUMBUS THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD VARY FROM
AROUND A HALF AN INCH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DOWN TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE BOOSTED BY WARM ADVECTION...REACHING
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 50 BY TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN REGION OF UPR LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT MID WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS WED/THU FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO
THE UPR 50S SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. PW/S EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.2 INCHES
OR GREATER THAN 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 45 KT SOUTHERLY JET.
HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING TIMING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THRU THE WEEK HAVE POTENTIAL TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACRS THE SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL ON
SATURATED GROUND FROM SNOWMELT MAY LEAD TO FLOOD PROBLEMS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.
MORE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WITH MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN ENDING PCPN
EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGH LEVELS OF RH IN THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS CAPTURING
THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE BEST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH TOWARD
MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MIST AT SOME TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY LOWER THAN THIS GIVEN THE UNRELIABLE GUIDANCE
FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS. SHALLOW MIST SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MONDAY EVENING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
430 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST OF ALL THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILDER AIR ALONG WITH MELTING SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS WAS
HELPING TO CAUSE THE FOG. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS WITH PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A VERY WET WORK WEEK FOR THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
PRESENTLY INDICATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE
TN RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS OVER TX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING BACK
OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...REACHING TO NEAR JONESBORO AND
JACKSON AROUND NOON WITH RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTH MS BY THAT
TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE AND A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH
POPS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE REGION MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
THE ECMWF DOES KEEP THE RAIN IN LONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
MENTIONED THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FINALLY CHANGES AND WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR SATURDAY...
BUT THINK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF JBR...MEM AND MKL FOR THE TIME
BEING. GIVEN THE COOL GROUND TEMPS FROM RECENT SNOWPACK AND
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 SM OR LESS. THIS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEM AND MKL
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS JBR. CIGS WILL STILL FALL
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HENRY-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
117 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8
PM CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WAITING ON THE 00Z
MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BUT THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THUS
SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
THE MID 40S.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ONE SYSTEM
AFTER ANOTHER INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH WILL BRING THE SFC LOW NEAR MEMPHIS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE SFC
LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE COULD BE A
LULL IN THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF ENDS RAIN
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER TROF. FOR NOW KEPT AT LEAST
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF JBR...MEM AND MKL FOR THE TIME
BEING. GIVEN THE COOL GROUND TEMPS FROM RECENT SNOWPACK AND
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 SM OR LESS. THIS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGHT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEM AND MKL
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS JBR. CIGS WILL STILL FALL
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1232 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8
PM CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. STILL WAITING ON THE 00Z
MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BUT THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTH OF I-40. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THUS
SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
THE MID 40S.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ONE SYSTEM
AFTER ANOTHER INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AN
INVERTED TROF WHICH WILL BRING THE SFC LOW NEAR MEMPHIS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE SFC
LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE COULD BE A
LULL IN THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GFS
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF ENDS RAIN
CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER TROF. FOR NOW KEPT AT LEAST
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
KRM
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF JBR...MEM AND MKL FOR THE TIME
BEING. GIVEN THE COOL GROUND TEMPS FROM RECENT SNOWPACK AND
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 SM OR LESS. THIS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT THROUGHT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEM AND MKL
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS JBR. CIGS WILL STILL FALL
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY BATCH OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 60 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
320 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
A JET STREAK/LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UA
TROUGH...THAT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX...AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS MANAGED TO
DRIFT NWRD TO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. E-SE SFC WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW
SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN /WHERE
THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ AND DRIFTING TO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-7
DEGREES EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. MOST METARS EAST
AND SE OF THE FA REPORT FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5
MILES...WITH A FEW STATIONS HAVING DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4
MILE ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND EXHIBITS BOTH THE
FOG AND STRATUS DECKS FILLING IN ERWD TO ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW
1/2 MILE...BEFORE IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SO MOTORISTS
ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FURTHERMORE...SFC WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE N-NE CWA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SWRD.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAK WILL BE FLEETING BY
MORNING THUS HINTING AT LOWERED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE ERN
SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION LEAVING LINGERING PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS FINALLY SEEM TO BE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE MID-TERM. THE JET STREAK BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE THE AREA WILL SPRINT NEWD TONIGHT LEAVING A TROUGH
BACK OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO
ELONGATE SWD AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FROM THE NRN JET STREAM AND LINGERING OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
MIDWEEK. STILL...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK WITH NO
REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION /ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLITY OF FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN ERN NM WHICH WILL HAVE ONLY THE SLIGHTEST
CHANCE OF DRIFTING EWD INTO THE FAR SWRN PANHANDLE/. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THEN HAVE ITS ENERGY
SPLIT WITH THE SRN PIECE MOVING SWD TO THE 4-CORNERS WHERE IT THEN
CLOSES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO KICK THE
CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEWD. THIS 4-CORNERS LOW MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER TO WRN PARTS OF THE FCST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE AS EACH RUN SEEMS TO HOLD
THIS ENERGY FARTHER TO THE WEST. ATTM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL
LOOK REASONABLE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. NO
BIG CHANGES IN AIR MASS SUGGEST RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEK. A MODEST COLD FRONT DROPPING TEMPS SOME LATE IN
THE WEEK THE EXCEPTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 34 62 35 / 20 0 10 0
TULIA 55 34 64 37 / 20 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 56 34 63 38 / 20 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 58 35 64 39 / 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 58 35 65 39 / 30 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 37 62 40 / 30 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 36 63 39 / 30 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 56 40 68 41 / 40 20 10 0
SPUR 54 40 65 41 / 50 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 53 42 64 41 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.AVIATION...
JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA NOW BUT
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GRADUALLY
INCREASE...WITH STEADY RAIN OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES BY MORNING.
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...UNTIL DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN MONDAY EVENING.
LIFR CIGS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS NEAR 200FT
NOW AT KACT AND KFTW. GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN BETWEEN
200-500 FT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WITH CIGS PREVAILING FROM 300-700FT. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR
WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AFTER RAIN ENDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS RESULT IN A LITTLE DRY ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE.
VSBY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURRING WEST OF I-35
IN RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OF SATURATED AIR MASS. THUS WILL KEEP
KDFW/KGKY/KDAL/KAFW TAF SITES GENERALLY MVFR WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECT
IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...KFTW AND KACT WILL LIKELY SEE IFR OR LOWER
VSBY UNTIL STEADY RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE
MVFR VSBY PREVAIL IN RAIN MONDAY. AFTER RAIN ENDS...NORTH WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHERE ITS NOT RAINING...BUT
LEFT HIGH POPS IN FOR THE 1AM TO 7AM PERIOD. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
AREA OF FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SINCE WE DO NOT FEEL
VISIBILITIES WILL STAY 1/4 MILE OR LESS MUCH LONGER AS SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AND THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AS WELL. IF MORE SITES
CRATER TO/BELOW 1/4 MILE...THEN AN ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED.
DUE TO THE TIME CHANGE...THE NAM IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE FOR THE
EVENING NEWS BROADCASTS. WE DO HAVE THE CURRENT HRRR HI-RES WHICH
CONFIRMS THAT THE RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. LOTS OF METEOROLOGY AND DYNAMICS...LIFT FROM A JET
COUPLET...ISENTROPIC ASCENT...HIGH PWATS...MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL GULF FETCH...ARE AT WORK WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THUS...THE FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE TWO OR MORE INCHES SHOULD FALL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
75
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST/WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE SKIES HAVE BECOME MORE BROKEN IN NATURE. TEMPS IN
GENERAL STILL LOOK ON TRACK ACROSS MOST AREAS...HOWEVER. THERE IS A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WE EXPECT
THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY INDICATING NEW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
THE 12 UTC FWD RAOB IN CONJUNCTION WITH GPS AND SATELLITE
DERIVED /BLENDED TPW/ PRECIPITABLE VALUES SUGGEST ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1
AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PLACES MOST OF THE REGION
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TRENDS
IN THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY SUCH THAT SOME AREAS OF OUR CWA WILL BE NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR SLOWLY NUDGES NORTHWARD. IN FACT...LOCATIONS MAY EVEN
WARM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES
AROUND THE QPF/POPS ON MONDAY. MOST HI-RES AND EVEN COARSE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
NOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCH CLOSER AND
CLOSER TO OUR CWA. CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE CENTERPIECE OF
FLANKING 300MB SPEED MAXIMA TOMORROW MORNING. THE RESULTANT
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE FROM THE COUPLING OF THESE JETS WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK OF THIS
CYCLONE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
SHOULD THIS LOW SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH...MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AS THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS...ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA SHOW A VERY MOIST
PROFILE...WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
WITH SUCH STRONG UPLIFT...WE DO FEEL THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN OUR CWA /MAINLY SHOWERS/ THERE MAY BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT THESE TYPES OF SATURATED PROFILES
DO NOT LEND THEMSELVES TO BE EFFICIENT FOR THUNDER AND CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES /LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF GRAUPEL OR OTHER ICE THROUGH A GREAT DEAL OF THE PROFILE/.
THESE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
ISSUE AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO GROESBECK TO PALESTINE LINE THRU 1
AM TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER AREAS WILL STILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAIN
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. RAINFALL SHOULD
REALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
15-BAIN
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT
OF THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO BACKING WINDS...AND THEREFORE WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION...WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR
ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CAUSING THE RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL NOT
MOVE FAR BEFORE BECOMING CUT OFF OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BECOMING CUT OFF...AND THEN RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNDERNEATH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS AND KEEP THE AREA SHUT
OFF FROM BOTH MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR
NOW...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD. 77.STALLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 47 50 46 64 46 / 80 90 40 10 5
WACO, TX 48 52 47 64 43 / 90 100 40 10 5
PARIS, TX 46 52 44 62 44 / 90 80 50 20 10
DENTON, TX 47 51 44 62 43 / 90 80 40 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 46 51 45 63 43 / 90 90 40 10 5
DALLAS, TX 47 51 46 64 48 / 80 90 40 10 5
TERRELL, TX 47 52 47 64 46 / 90 90 50 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 48 54 49 66 47 / 90 100 50 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 48 52 47 64 44 / 100 100 40 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 47 52 43 65 43 / 50 80 30 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ147-148-158-160>162-
174-175.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
216 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
LATER TONIGHT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING ON KFCX IN THE WATAUGA/WILKES
COUNTY REGION...BUT OBS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND.
NOT A WHOLE LOT MORE UPSTREAM AND EVEN BACK INTO GA DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...INDICATE SOME
LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AROUND 12Z...SO
RETAINED THE VERY LOW POPS INTO THE FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...COMBINED WITH
HIGH- LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CREATING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPS A TAD
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MODIFIED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN QUITE A WHILE.
AS OF 830 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A WEAK/ELONGATED PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SHEAR EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING A THICKENING CANOPY OVERTOP LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE RIDING INTO FAR SW SECTIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADAR SHOWING MOST RAINFALL STILL WELL TO THE WEST PER
LATEST MOSAIC SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE INTO THE DRY AIR.
BOTH THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF SOLUTIONS DO BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO THE NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE DESPITE RATHER LOW DEWPOINTS. THEREFORE KEPT IN
SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH MORNING. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
TRICKY GIVEN TIMING/THICKNESS OF CLOUDS...AND POTENTIAL FOR
READINGS TO FALL MORE THAN EXPECTED ESPCLY EAST AND IN VALLEYS
OVER THE WEST IF CLOUDS FADE A BIT GIVEN THE DRY AIR. APPEARS
RANGE FROM LOW/MID 40S WESTERN RIDGES...TO MID/UPPER 30S EAST AND
BLUE RIDGE...TO AROUND 30 VALLEYS BEST AT THIS POINT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW BUMPS IN THE ROAD. SATELLITE
SHOWS FEW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THANKS TO SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE MEAN WESTERN UPPER TROF.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT AND MODELS EVEN WANT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS. WILL USE A LOW CHANCE POP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. CLOUDS
SHOULD MAKE FOR LOWS TONIGHT A FEW TICKS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW/MID 40S EAST.
BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTH AND TAKE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS WITH THEM TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN READINGS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC AND SOUTHSIDE VA WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND
IN THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING AND LIMIT SOME OF THE EARLY SUN. UPPER
50S/LOWER60S WEST LOW/MID 60S EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP
IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE NORTH...THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS BACK
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEEPING IT WET THIS PERIOD AS WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE
EAST COAT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW WITH MODEST RAINFALL WORKING ACROSS
TN/KY AND EDGING INTO WV. WPC SHOWING SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS FAR EAST AS OUR SE WV COUNTIES...WHICH WILL COVER TUE
INTO WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE LINGER INTO
MIDWEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING ALONG IT.
STILL FAVORING OUR NRN AND WRN CWA WITH HIGHER POPS TUE-TUE NIGHT
THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN. VARIATIONS EXISTS
IN THE MODEL QPF FIELDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OUR SE COUNTIES TO DRY
OUT TUE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF WINTER WX...THE MODELS ALL FAVOR MAINLY
RAIN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MTNS OF NE GREENBRIER INTO BATH COUNTY...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED.
THE FRONT BISECTS CWA WEDNESDAY WITH MAIN BELT OF RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FEW
AREAS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S MTNS TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH WILL SEE
RAIN WILL GO MILD IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR NORMAL IN THE
WEST...WITH HIGHS FROM 50 TO 55 MTNS/ROA...TO AROUND 60 SOUTHSIDE
VA...NW NC PIEDMONT.
STAYING MILD TUESDAY AS FLOW VEERS SW THEN WEST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND POTENTIAL BUST DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AND
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS AND
SUPERBLEND. THE GFS SHOWING HIGH 67 IN ROANOKE...WHILE ECMWF HAS
59...THINKING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPS...BUT STILL MILD
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
GOING TO STAY WETTER THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE 12Z ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS TROUGHY AS
THE 12Z GFS THATS SHOWING A COLDER UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF BY NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS OUR AREA WILL STAY IN A FAVORABLE SW FLOW
ALOFT WHILE AT THE SFC A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH THURSDAY
WHICH TAKES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
OVERRUNNING LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHANCE OF RAIN.
MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA PRODUCING AN COOL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPS WELL UNDER GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE
WEDGE...THOUGH OVER FAR SW VA 50S ARE LIKELY THU-FRI WITH MORE OF SE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND DESPITE RAIN.
THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN COMES FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS FROM THE
GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO KY. STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE KY/WV AREA WITH MODERATE RAIN WORKING INTO OUR MTNS WITH
LOWER QPF EAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS TO THE OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE TIMING OF THIS WILL FAVOR OVERRUNNING INTO SATURDAY. WILL SEE
WANING OF RAIN SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT WITH DRY SLOT WORKING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT AT OR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THU-FRI IN
THE WEDGE AND AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FAR SW...WITH AROUND
NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE A SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH...A
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH LARGE AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
IS VERY DRY THANKS TO RECENT ARCTIC INTRUSION. RADAR SHOWING SOME
VERY LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S...PCPN IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING
THE GROUND. GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE FAR
SW CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF
THIS TO REACH THE TAF SITES. GENERALLY BKN-OVC DECKS AOA100
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...MAY SEE SOME DECREASE
IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AFT 00Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OFF SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. CLOUD LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TOWARD 035-050 TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...BUT STILL VFR AT THAT
POINT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...THUS VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. WINDS
CHAOTIC AND LIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT WNW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MOST
AREAS...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFT 00Z.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUB-VFR LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND THEN PERSIST
MOST AREAS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS AN AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE PIVOTS NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SYSTEM. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SLOWLY RETURN NORTH INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
406 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
LAST EVENING`S SNOW EVENT THAT MODELS PREDICTED FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED.
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA WAS ALSO PRETTY MUCH ABSENT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT MODELS SHOWED SWINGING SEWRD OVER THIS AREA LAST
EVENING IS JUST NOW PASSING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR ACCORDING TO
THE RAP AND GOES IR H20 VAPOR IMAGERY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD MARKING
ITS PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT MTN LOCATIONS ARE ALSO
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER TEENS AND 20S THE RULE.
HOWEVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS AROUND GRAND LAKE AND LAKE GRANBY
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR TODAY...THE WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW SFC-700MB WINDS EAST OF
THE MTNS VEERING FROM W-SWLY TO N-NWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR ALL OF THE SUNSHINE TODAY...HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A SHADE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD TODAY/S
HIGHS SHOULD BE 1-3C WARMER. HIGH COUNTRY TEMPS ALSO A DEG OR TWO
WARMER TODAY.
TONIGHT...RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY WITH PERSISTING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE A 1-3 DEG C WARMUP IN MIN TEMPS.
WHEREAS MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT A
DEG OR TWO WITH A CLEAR DRY ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS CLOUDS
MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON
SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY
MID-MORNING...THEN N-NWLY BY AROUND MIDDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 13KTS. SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS DOMINANT CLOUD TYPE. TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD RETURN
TO THEIR NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERN BY AROUND SUNSET UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
718 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES APPROACHES
LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND W/SW WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN SHARP TEMPS RISES ALONG THE COAST. THUS...WILL MAKE A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN/SNOW STILL A
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT RAIN IS SEEMING MORE LIKELY AT THE COAST AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.
THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
WARM ADVECTION PCPN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS NE NJ AND LI...WHERE THERE COULD BE OF MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. TO THE NORTH...IT SHOULD BE SNOW BUT
WITH EVEN A LOWER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND
LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL PA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM.
AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED
ALL OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND IN SOME
CASES INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE THICKENING
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT PICK UP IN THE SW FLOW. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF A RISE IS UNCERTAIN. NYC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS CLEAR BY NOONTIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOST OF THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING...WITH NYC METRO LIKELY IN THE MID 30S.
A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT NE INTO A CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFT/EVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN. IN
RECENT DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LIGHT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH UP
TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT FROM S TO N
DURING THE LATE AFT HOURS.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKELY DRY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL
PROBABLY BE STUCK WITH BKN-OVC SKIES TO START. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TEMP OF THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANY
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE DELAYED ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. THINKING IS THAT WE END UP MOSTLY 50-55 ACROSS THE
AREA. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP THESE NUMBERS UP BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WNW WINDS AND NOTING THAT MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A
COLD BIAS AS OF LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDS NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONSENSUS AT LEAST SHOWS A
SLOWING DOWN ON PCPN ONSET. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR FRIDAY AFTN FOR ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT...PASSES OVER OR NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A 500MB
LOW THEN POTENTIALLY HELPS FORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW...OR AT LEAST
SHARPEN A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH COULD AFFECT US ON SUNDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE INITIAL LOW...WITH THE
GFS FARTHEST SOUTH AND THE GGEM IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND A THERMAL PROFILE THAT COULD SUPPORT MIXED PCPN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
SIMPLE. PCPN TYPE CAN BE FINE TUNED ONCE A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS.
ALSO HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD CAPPED AT CHC. ONE THING
THAT COULD BE FORECAST WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 14Z WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 5 KT TO 10 KT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST...GENERALLY TO THE
LEFT OF 310 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY AT THE METRO NYC TERMINALS. THIS EVENING THE WIND
BECOMES LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 TRUE AROUND 12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 300 TRUE AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 15Z TO 22Z 290 TRUE AROUND 11 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND 16Z TO 23Z 290 TRUE AROUND 10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR EARLY...THEN MARGINAL VFR IN LIGHT RAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN RETURN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S...AND BRIEFLY 50S
WED...COLD WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK-UP
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WEEK.
THE THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT COULD
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
940 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE THAT STICKS OUT IS THE
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST COMPRISED OF
SEVERAL LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAVE FORCED AMPLIFYING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RESULT OF THIS RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE 09/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE A WELL-DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AROUND 700MB. THE STRONGEST RIDGING
FEATURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 700-500MB...HOWEVER EVEN ABOVE THIS
LEVEL WHERE WV IMAGERY SHOWED MORE ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY...WE NOW SEE
A MORE RIDGED PATTERN AS HIGH AS 400MB. THE 700MB LEVEL AROUND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE THE DIVIDER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO BETWEEN DRY AND SUPPRESSED MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND THE MUCH
MORE MOIST AND LOWER LEVELS. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE
MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS KEEPING THE
COLDEST AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...THIS COLD AIR IS OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO OUR FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN SURFACE HIGH CENTER HAS PUSHED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PLACING OUR FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A GENERAL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A
WEAK BOUNDARY IS STILL LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. NOT SURE
YOU CAN STILL CALL THIS A FRONT...BUT THE TROUGH ITSELF IS SHOWN BY
ALL NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO PIVOT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERING OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY
SHOWERS ON REGIONAL RADAR...AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT
LEAST BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING CAN AID THE SURFACE FOCUS OF THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY TO STOP FORCING THE LIMITED CONVECTION. WE SAY
LIMITED CONVECTION AS THE POTENTIAL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CAPPED AT
AROUND 10,000 FEET BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
THIS WOULD NEED A STRONG UPDRAFT TO OVERCOME...AND DO NOT THINK WE
HAVE THE SETUP FOR THAT TYPE OF LIFT TODAY. THEREFORE...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THUNDER...AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.
INITIAL BAND OF WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES SEEN IN THE
NAM/GFS LINES UP WELL WITH THE BAND OF 5-6KFT AGL STRATOCU DECK
PIVOTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHWARD...WITH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE HAVE SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIP PATTERN...BUT ARE GENERALLY ON THE
SAME PAGE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE LATE DAY SHOWERS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH 00Z. THE LATEST HRRR IS THE
MOST SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z. WHILE NOT THIS
SUPPRESSED...MANY OF THE OTHER CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
NEXT RUN OR 2 OF THE HRRR...WILL LIKELY BACK OFF ON THE TIMING FOR
BEST SHOWERS CHANCES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS
ALONG THE SUNCOAST WHERE SURFACE FOCUS FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SEABREEZE...OR AT LEAST COASTAL
CONVERGENCE AS THE NEARSHORE WINDS GO THROUGH THEIR NORMAL DIURNAL
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK WARM WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S COMMON OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. COMMON TO THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY FEEBLE SEABREEZE IS
LIKELY TO DROP TEMPS BACK AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE OF THE SHOWERS SHIFTING OFF
THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING
HOURS...AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY DRY.
BASED ON ALL THE GUIDANCE THIS FORECASTER CAN SEE...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE YOU GET AS FAR NORTH AS AROUND
BROOKSVILLE. WITH THE SUPPRESSIVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG AND
SOME DENSE FOG LOOKS HIGHER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY ARE QUITE
HIGH NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR VIS PROBLEMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH...AS THERE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH DIFFERENCE SYNOPTICALLY TO CAUSE THE DROP
OFF IS POTENTIAL SHOWN BY THE SREF. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...
A WARM SPRING-LIKE DAY LOOKS ON TAP AS THE UPPER RIDGING AND GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING BOOSTS TEMPS WILL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GRADIENT SETUP AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING
DO LOOK TO PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDING TO BURN OFF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPOTS...BUT THEREAFTER
LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THAN IS SHOWN IN TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS FOR
THIS TYPE OF MORE PURE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...BUT CAN NOT RULE IT
OUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL KEEP POPS ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE/THERMO
PROFILES...AND TIME OF YEAR. MORE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE WILL ENCOMPASS THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE AFTERNOON
RUNS...AND WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAY SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD AT MVFR BKN CU AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS AS THE CUMULUS
FIELD BEGINS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE VFR LEVELS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCT AROUND THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS.
AREA OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
FOG PROBLEMS LOOK TO EXIST JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH KLAL
AND KPGD SEEING HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER
VIS. AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY MORNING...THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THEREAFTER AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 68 / 30 30 20 30
FMY 84 67 84 68 / 50 10 30 10
GIF 83 65 86 67 / 40 10 20 20
SRQ 81 65 82 66 / 40 40 30 20
BKV 83 60 83 62 / 20 10 20 30
SPG 81 68 80 69 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1043 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE PREVIOUS LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA THIS MORNING AS RAP MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STAY GREATER SW
OF REGION FOR NOW. TRENDS LOOK TO MATCH WELL WITH NAM ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGIONS AND LOCAL WRF/NMM HI-RES RUNS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO
MIDDAY THEN FILLING BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. QPF SHOULD STAY PRETTY LIGHT FOR NEAR
TERM. WARM AND CLOUDY CONTINUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AS OUR MOSTLY WET WEEK AHEAD BEGINS. MUCH OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR ISNT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT SOME OF IT IS AS -RA OR
-DZ. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. HI
RES MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS...HRRR STARTS DEVELOPING PRECIP
ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA WHILE THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL BEFORE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE LATER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH
DO NOT ENTIRELY DROP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY EVEN WITH A SHORT LULL. BY TONIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE
TO THE SW...WITH VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE CWA AND THUS WE SEE OUR
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
ALTHOUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA AND
LOOKING AT HI RES MODELS IT SEEMS PRECIP COULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 250 J/KG TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DID INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND LESS THAN A TENTH ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...GUIDANCE STILL WANTS
TO WARM TEMPS UP...HOWEVER WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH ON THE WARM SIDE AND THUS LEANED
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR TUESDAY WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE SO WENT ABOUT TWO DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BUT WITH
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...HIGH TEMPS WARM A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. FORECAST MAY STILL EVEN BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE THOUGH.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
WET WEEK IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ORIENTATION OF THE BEST
MOISTURE FLOW PUTS NORTHWEST GA IN THE HIGHEST QPF ZONE...WITH
THREE TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER A STRONG WEDGE SHOULD DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEK WITH
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SHOULD INFLUENCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALSO. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING FOR
SATURDAY BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH ON SUNDAY. SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...BUT MUCH OF
WHATS ACROSS THE ATL AREA SITES IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. IT
IS POSSIBLE THOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE ATL AREA SITES
COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WOULD BE VERY SHORT
LIVED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NE SIDE AND WILL GENERALLY BE EAST
TODAY AND WORK THEIR BY TO THE SE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 51 71 58 / 20 50 50 40
ATLANTA 66 54 71 60 / 30 60 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 49 63 56 / 40 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 63 50 70 59 / 50 70 60 60
COLUMBUS 72 57 77 61 / 30 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 64 51 67 57 / 30 60 60 50
MACON 73 54 78 59 / 20 30 40 30
ROME 61 49 71 58 / 60 100 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 53 73 58 / 30 50 40 40
VIDALIA 76 57 81 62 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
927 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AS LOW MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST. THE LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO IN NORTHERN ZONES...BUT AS
SHOWERS IMPLIES...THERE WILL NOT BE UNIFORMITY IN COVERAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
SHOWED LOW PRES W/THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF MAINE W/SOME SNOW MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN
OF THE GFS AS WELL. A DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
W/GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. 00Z UA & MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH
700MBS. SSE FLOW AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF
15-20:1. QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO.
THIS COUPLED W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
729 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
725 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT READINGS
BEGINNING TO WARM. POPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO FIT THE RADAR
TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
SHOWED LOW PRES W/THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF MAINE W/SOME SNOW MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN
OF THE GFS AS WELL. A DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
W/GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. 00Z UA & MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH
700MBS. SSE FLOW AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF
15-20:1. QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO.
THIS COUPLED W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY WINDS...AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NOTED ON RADAR THIS MORNING OFF COASTAL MS. HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO SE SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART JUST SHOWERS WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC./26/
&&
.AVIATION...WHILE RAIN REMAINS RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO RESPOND WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STILL VFR AT MID MORNING. MUCH LOWER CIGS EXIST TO THE S
AND W OF FORECAST AREA...AND STILL BELIEVE LOWER CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE PUSHED THIS BACK TO LATER IN THE
DAY WITH SERIES OF TAF AMDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN RATHER WIDESPREAD WITH COMBO OF BR AND SHRA
CAUSING MVFR/IFR VSBYS TONIGHT./8/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR FORECAST THINKING
REMAINS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WHILE THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WET PATTERN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ADDING UP AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS
(LOCATION...SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS) ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. MUCH
OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS AS WELL AS NOT BEING LOCKED INTO A
SPECIFIC AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME PERIOD WHERE
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS NOW AVAILABLE AND THEY TWO DIFFER IN PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AS WELL. ONE COMMON THEME IS ALL MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST EFFICIENT AND HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE LATER AND
MORE FOCUSED IN THE TUE-TUE NGT PERIODS. DUE TO THIS...WILL FOCUS
THE HWO/GRAPHICS ON THAT WINDOW OF TIME. AS FOR THE AREA...THE
MODIFICATION BY THE DAY SHIFT FITS WELL AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. THE
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.
WHAT IS STARTING TO COME INTO PLAY AND BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS TUE. THE REASONING FOR
THIS IS HOW MORE CONSENSUS IS SHOWING A CLOSED OFF SFC LOW TO OUR
W/NW FOR TUE. WITH A MORE DEVELOPED WAVE...WE WILL SEE WAA INCREASE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONTAL
CIRCULATION DEVELOP. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGHER SFC MOISTURE
TO MOVE NORTH EARLY ON TUE AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TIMING. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST HI-RES GUID SHOWS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY TUE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED IF THIS SLOWER TREND WORKS OUT WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MUCAPE OF 500-1100 J/KG. NOT MANY INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER...BUT FOR THE FIRST TIME...A FEW ARE. AT THIS POINT...I WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THREAT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD AND EVALUATE FURTHER.
TOUCHING ON TODAY...A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING
OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A MORE PRONOUNCED WAA PATTERN IS DEVELOPING. MUCH
OF THIS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TODAY. AS THE WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN
ACTIVITY...BUT THEN HAVE WAA SHOWERS/ISO TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE N
FROM SE LA FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOW THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL LOOK
TONIGHT IS A CHALLENGE. MY EXPECTATIONS ARE THERE WON`T BE A SOLID
RAIN SHIELD...BUT MORE OF A FEW DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIP AS THE WAA
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AND DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASES. /CME/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TROUGHING ALOFT DUG IN
DEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION`S MID-SECTION AND INTO MEXICO...WILL
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE A`PLENTY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS...COUPLED WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FOLLOWING SYNC AND
TRAVERSING NORTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
WILL BE HEAVY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT EITHER. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID SURFACE LOWS WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL EXIST...CAUSING DEW POINTS TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND ADEQUATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY TO EXIST. IT`S
STILL SKETCHY WHETHER THERE`LL BE A RISK OF ANY SEVERE STORMS AT ANY
POINT...AS WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY LOOKS A TAD LOW AND LAPSE RATES
MEAGER. THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
RESULTING IN FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE GREATER CONCERN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUCH A DEEP AND RICHLY MOIST AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CWA...PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES PROGGED FROM
1.50-1.70 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
FINALLY...AFTER A WET MID AND LATE WORK WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CUT OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE
PHASING THE REMAINING ENERGY LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION/OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO EQUATE TO A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 57 74 58 / 99 99 100 92
MERIDIAN 60 57 75 61 / 99 100 100 91
VICKSBURG 58 57 71 55 / 100 99 100 70
HATTIESBURG 63 61 76 63 / 96 86 100 79
NATCHEZ 60 60 71 55 / 100 93 100 76
GREENVILLE 54 52 67 51 / 100 100 89 50
GREENWOOD 56 54 71 54 / 100 100 100 80
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
822 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE TODAY.
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS THIS WELL COVERED SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
THIS MORNING. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH WILL BE DRY
AND WARM. A DRY SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 12Z. A FLAT
NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAP SOUNDINGS HAD MIXING TO
NEAR 600 MB CENTRAL AND W TODAY...AND MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB OVER
THE E. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. HAVE
RAISED THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. WHILE WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT VERY STRONG...A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE GOOD MIXING. LEE
TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG
TIMBER TO KLVM. THE LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT
CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS W OF KBIL. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ON TUE AND MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS TODAY/S MIXING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO THE
WARMING AIRMASS.
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HAVE
LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR TODAY AND TUE. TUE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR KBIL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD...WHICH IS 71
DEGREES...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST. THE MEAN 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY
A WEAK TROF PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY BEFORE IT AGAIN
BUILDS BY NEXT WEEKEND. WE ARE CARRYING A LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE IN
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...BUT OTHERWISE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT
DRAPES ACROSS THE REGION IN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
CARRIED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD.
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY...DRIVING TEMPS INTO THE
70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE TROF. DID BUMP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROSPECTIVE CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY POINT TO COOLER THAN ADVERTISED TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS
OF -4C TO -5C AND 850MB TEMPS OF 10C POINT TO MIX DOWN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S. DID LOWER TEMPS INTO LOW 60S AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS GET CLOSER IN TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETURNS FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFIES AND SLIPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING KBIL AND KLVM...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN KLVM AND K6SO BY THIS AFTERNOON. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 036/068 040/073 044/062 039/066 037/070 045/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/B 11/B
LVM 062 036/064 041/072 045/058 037/064 037/066 047/068
0/N 00/N 01/E 13/W 21/U 00/B 11/N
HDN 068 033/071 036/074 041/063 037/068 036/074 039/072
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/U 00/U 01/B
MLS 064 033/067 036/071 042/060 038/064 036/066 043/069
0/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 063 031/067 034/075 039/061 036/065 033/068 037/070
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/B 00/U 01/B
BHK 061 030/064 033/071 041/058 035/062 032/063 036/066
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 061 029/065 034/074 038/060 037/064 031/071 039/073
0/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 00/U 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
902 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING AND
ADDED THE CLINTON...WEATHERFORD...AND WATONGA AREAS.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID LINE
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A COOL DREARY WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS.
LATEST VISIBILITIES RANGED BETWEEN 0 AND 1/4 MILE NEAR ALTUS...
CLINTON...AND WEATHERFORD. THINK THIS FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...THUS MADE THE EXTENSION AND EXPANSION
TO THE ADVISORY ABOVE.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. IT APPEARS THAT STEADY
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH. RAIN MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
AREAS...THOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DENSE. MORE DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
DID NOT ALTER FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
TOO WARM WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 42 64 41 / 100 40 10 0
HOBART OK 56 41 66 41 / 50 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 44 65 42 / 90 30 10 0
GAGE OK 62 37 69 39 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 41 67 40 / 20 20 10 0
DURANT OK 50 45 61 45 / 100 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ015>017-
021>023-033>038.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST OF ALL THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILDER AIR ALONG WITH MELTING SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS WAS
HELPING TO CAUSE THE FOG. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS WITH PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A VERY WET WORK WEEK FOR THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
PRESENTLY INDICATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE
TN RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS OVER TX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING BACK
OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...REACHING TO NEAR JONESBORO AND
JACKSON AROUND NOON WITH RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTH MS BY THAT
TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE AND A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH
POPS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE REGION MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
THE ECMWF DOES KEEP THE RAIN IN LONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
MENTIONED THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FINALLY CHANGES AND WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR SATURDAY...
BUT THINK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY.
JCL
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING UNTIL
APPROXIMATELY 15Z WHEN ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT RAINFALL WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS. JBR HAS BEEN BELOW 1/2 SM ALL NIGHT IN
FOG AND THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WHEN ONLY
SMALL IMPROVEMENTS UP TO 2SM WILL BE MADE. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN LIGHT WINDS. ONCE LIGHT RAINFALL STARTS LATER THIS
MORNING...EXPECT IS TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE RAINFALL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HENRY-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1025 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THE BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST A BIT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR BY 2 PM THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA BY 22Z. UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
THIS PROGRESSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 90 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...
LEE...MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 60 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...
LIFR DECKS AND VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KPVW...LIFR DECKS AND VLIFR
VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KLBB
THUS FAR THOUGH VIS HAS DROPPED TO 6SM. HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS
HINT AT CONDITIONS DETEORIATING AT KLBB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR DECKS AND IFR VIS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
AT KLBB...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT BY LATE MORNING AS WELL AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENSUE UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT -SHRA COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INSERT A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A JET STREAK/LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UA
TROUGH...THAT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX...AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS MANAGED TO
DRIFT NWRD TO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. E-SE SFC WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW
SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN /WHERE
THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ AND DRIFTING TO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-7
DEGREES EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. MOST METARS EAST
AND SE OF THE FA REPORT FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5
MILES...WITH A FEW STATIONS HAVING DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4
MILE ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND EXHIBITS BOTH THE
FOG AND STRATUS DECKS FILLING IN WESTWARD TO ACROSS ALL BUT
PERHAPS THE FAR WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY
FALLING BELOW 1/2 MILE...BEFORE IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FURTHERMORE...SFC WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE N-NE CWA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SWRD.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAK WILL BE FLEETING BY
MORNING THUS HINTING AT LOWERED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE ERN
SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION LEAVING LINGERING PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS FINALLY SEEM TO BE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE MID-TERM. THE JET STREAK BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE THE AREA WILL SPRINT NEWD TONIGHT LEAVING A TROUGH
BACK OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO
ELONGATE SWD AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FROM THE NRN JET STREAM AND LINGERING OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
MIDWEEK. STILL...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK WITH NO
REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION /ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLITY OF FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS ERN NM WHICH WILL HAVE ONLY THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF DRIFTING EWD INTO THE FAR SWRN PANHANDLE/.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THEN HAVE
ITS ENERGY SPLIT WITH THE SRN PIECE MOVING SWD TO THE 4-CORNERS
WHERE IT THEN CLOSES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO KICK THE CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEWD. THIS
4-CORNERS LOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER TO WRN PARTS
OF THE FCST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING LESS
FAVORABLE AS EACH RUN SEEMS TO HOLD THIS ENERGY FARTHER TO THE
WEST. ATTM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES IN AIR MASS SUGGEST
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. A MODEST COLD
FRONT DROPPING TEMPS SOME LATE IN THE WEEK THE EXCEPTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 34 62 35 / 20 0 10 0
TULIA 55 34 64 37 / 20 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 56 34 63 38 / 20 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 58 35 64 39 / 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 58 35 65 39 / 30 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 37 62 40 / 30 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 36 63 39 / 30 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 56 40 68 41 / 40 20 10 0
SPUR 54 40 65 41 / 50 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 53 42 64 41 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
...SPOTTY EVENING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SOME
EARLY SPRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
IN COLORADO YET...BUT VERY CLOSE...OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
NEW MEXICO...JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER...SOUTHWEST OF
TRINIDAD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND EXPANDING A
LITTLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR STILL WANTS
TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS INTO BACA AND
PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES COUNTY THIS EVENING. IT HAS
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. LAST NIGHT`S 4 KM NSSL WRF
DEPICTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. SO...IN ADDITION TO SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...HAVE ALSO SPREAD ISOLATED POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE NOT
REAL HIGH BUT THAT`S WHY THE POPS ARE SO LOW. SHOWERS WILL FALL AS
SNOW ABOVE 9000 TO 10000 FEET WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR 2
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD EVEN BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING SO WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
FOR THAT AREA.
EVERYTHING SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...LATE IN
THE DAY...WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS POP UP IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. READINGS
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...BOTH AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GREAT
BASIN SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PASSING WEAK
TROUGH SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK SFC-H7 UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER TROUGH
DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG OR COLD...HOWEVER...WITH H5 TEMPS PROGGED
AROUND -20C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGED BETWEEN 6-8C THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...COULD STILL
SEE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE FLIGHT
AREA IS TRIGGERING A FEW SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE HAVE EVEN
BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER OVER
THE NEW MEXICO SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTHWEST OF TRINIDAD. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 50...ALTHOUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF 50...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK REGION...COULD ALSO
SEE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY. BY AND LARGE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES...BUT SOME SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 OR 10000 FEET. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. MOST OF TUESDAY
WILL BE VFR...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO INITIALIZE
THE FORECAST FROM AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
LAST EVENING`S SNOW EVENT THAT MODELS PREDICTED FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED.
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA WAS ALSO PRETTY MUCH ABSENT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT MODELS SHOWED SWINGING SEWRD OVER THIS AREA LAST
EVENING IS JUST NOW PASSING OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR ACCORDING TO
THE RAP AND GOES IR H20 VAPOR IMAGERY WITH HARDLY A CLOUD MARKING
ITS PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT MTN LOCATIONS ARE ALSO
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER TEENS AND 20S THE RULE.
HOWEVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS AROUND GRAND LAKE AND LAKE GRANBY
HAVE COOLED DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR TODAY...THE WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW SFC-700MB WINDS EAST OF
THE MTNS VEERING FROM W-SWLY TO N-NWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR ALL OF THE SUNSHINE TODAY...HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A SHADE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD TODAY/S
HIGHS SHOULD BE 1-3C WARMER. HIGH COUNTRY TEMPS ALSO A DEG OR TWO
WARMER TODAY.
TONIGHT...RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY WITH PERSISTING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ON THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE A 1-3 DEG C WARMUP IN MIN TEMPS.
WHEREAS MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT A
DEG OR TWO WITH A CLEAR DRY ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A FEW LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS CLOUDS
MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
PART OF THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
A WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON
SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LIGHT SWLY WINDS
AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING...THEN N-NWLY BY AROUND MIDDAY
WITH SOME TERMINALS GOING A LITTLE E OF N. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 9 KTS. SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS DOMINANT TYPE. TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
THEIR NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERN BY AROUND SUNSET UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE THAT STICKS OUT IS THE
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST COMPRISED OF
SEVERAL LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAVE FORCED AMPLIFYING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RESULT OF THIS RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE 09/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WHERE A WELL-DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AROUND 700MB. THE STRONGEST RIDGING
FEATURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 700-500MB...HOWEVER EVEN ABOVE THIS
LEVEL WHERE WV IMAGERY SHOWED MORE ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY...WE NOW SEE
A MORE RIDGED PATTERN AS HIGH AS 400MB. THE 700MB LEVEL AROUND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE THE DIVIDER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO BETWEEN DRY AND SUPPRESSED MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND THE MUCH
MORE MOIST AND LOWER LEVELS. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE
MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS KEEPING THE
COLDEST AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...THIS COLD AIR IS OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO OUR FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN SURFACE HIGH CENTER HAS PUSHED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PLACING OUR FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A GENERAL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED MOVING UP INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AT
THIS TIME. NOT SURE YOU CAN STILL CALL THIS A FRONT...BUT THE TROUGH
ITSELF IS SHOWN BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO CONTINUE TO PIVOT
BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR A SCATTERING OF
LATE DAY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
REGIONAL RADAR...BUT NOT GIVING UP ON THE POTENTIAL JUST YET. MOST
OF THE HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTING ALL DAY
THAT THIS WILL BE A LATE EVENT...AND THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
LATEST 16Z HRRR RUN. THIS PHILOSOPHY MAKES SENSE AS IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE THE INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH WITH ANY FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE TO GET
ANY APPRECIABLE UPDRAFTS GOING. WE ARE STILL CALLING THIS LIMITED
CONVECTION THOUGH...AS THE COLUMN IS CAPPED AT AROUND 10,000 FEET BY
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THIS WOULD NEED A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO OVERCOME...AND DO NOT THINK WE HAVE THE SETUP FOR
THAT TYPE OF LIFT TODAY. THEREFORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDER...AND
THE SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND PARAMETERIZED KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE LATE DAY SHOWERS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 00Z. UPDATED GRIDS NOW HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES (30%) DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE SUNCOAST
WHERE SURFACE FOCUS FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
AIDED BY A WEAK SEABREEZE...OR AT LEAST COASTAL CONVERGENCE AS THE
NEARSHORE WINDS GO THROUGH THEIR NORMAL DIURNAL WEAKENING.
SHOWERS...IF THEY REACH THE TAMPA BAY AREA MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 00Z
OR AFTER. EITHER WAY...ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNT TO
LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TONIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE OF THE SHOWERS SHIFTING OFF
THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING
HOURS...AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY DRY.
BASED ON ALL THE GUIDANCE THIS FORECASTER CAN SEE...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE YOU GET AS FAR NORTH AS AROUND
BROOKSVILLE. WITH THE SUPPRESSIVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG AND
SOME DENSE FOG LOOKS HIGHER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY ARE QUITE
HIGH NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR VIS PROBLEMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH...AS THERE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH DIFFERENCE SYNOPTICALLY TO CAUSE THE DROP
OFF IS POTENTIAL SHOWN BY THE SREF. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...
A WARM SPRING-LIKE DAY LOOKS ON TAP AS THE UPPER RIDGING AND GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING BOOSTS TEMPS WILL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GRADIENT SETUP AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING
DO LOOK TO PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDING TO BURN OFF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPOTS...BUT THEREAFTER
LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THAN IS SHOWN IN TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS FOR
THIS TYPE OF MORE PURE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...BUT CAN NOT RULE IT
OUT GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL KEEP POPS ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE/THERMO
PROFILES...AND TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
WED-THU; AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MEXICO
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WEST OF
THE YUCATAN...WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING THEN TRACKING NORTH
ON IT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS FL AND THE
EAST GULF. THIS RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A WARM AND STABLE
PATTERN ALOFT WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDES INCREASING
MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERALLY KEEP JUST SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WED BUT WEAKENS A BIT THU AND ALLOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI-SAT; THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
SURFACE LOW REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGION WHILE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT FL FLATTENS
AND SLIDES EAST SOME. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND REINFORCES THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH... MAINTAINING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS
CONTINUE...THANKS TO THE RIDGING ALOFT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
SUN-MON; THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT WITH THE SOUTHERN PART HANGING
BACK IN MEXICO WHILE THE NORTHERN END TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES AND DEEPENS OFF THE COAST...PUSHING THE FL AND EAST GULF
UPPER RIDGING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE BOUNDARY
WEAKENING AS IT SAGS DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN THEN SOUTHERN FL. THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF LATITUDE 30 AS IT RIDGES BACK
TO FL. THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH DOES
RELAX SOME...WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE MAINLY SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLOWLY...REACHING NEAR NORMAL BY MON AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
LIMITED IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. AREA OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG PROBLEMS LOOK TO
EXIST JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH KLAL AND KPGD SEEING HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VIS. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP FAIRLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. DISPERSION INDICES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HOWEVER BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE
MOST LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 83 68 83 / 30 20 30 50
FMY 67 85 69 87 / 10 30 30 50
GIF 65 86 68 86 / 10 30 30 50
SRQ 64 83 66 83 / 30 20 30 50
BKV 60 85 63 86 / 10 20 30 50
SPG 67 82 69 82 / 30 20 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
MARINE...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
202 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
.UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE PREVIOUS LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA THIS MORNING AS RAP MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STAY GREATER SW
OF REGION FOR NOW. TRENDS LOOK TO MATCH WELL WITH NAM ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGIONS AND LOCAL WRF/NMM HI-RES RUNS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO
MIDDAY THEN FILLING BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. QPF SHOULD STAY PRETTY LIGHT FOR NEAR
TERM. WARM AND CLOUDY CONTINUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AS OUR MOSTLY WET WEEK AHEAD BEGINS. MUCH OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR ISNT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT SOME OF IT IS AS -RA OR
-DZ. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. HI
RES MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS...HRRR STARTS DEVELOPING PRECIP
ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE CWA WHILE THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL BEFORE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE LATER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH
DO NOT ENTIRELY DROP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY EVEN WITH A SHORT LULL. BY TONIGHT...FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE
TO THE SW...WITH VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE CWA AND THUS WE SEE OUR
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
ALTHOUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA AND
LOOKING AT HI RES MODELS IT SEEMS PRECIP COULD BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 250 J/KG TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DID INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND LESS THAN A TENTH ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...GUIDANCE STILL WANTS
TO WARM TEMPS UP...HOWEVER WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH ON THE WARM SIDE AND THUS LEANED
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR TUESDAY WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE SO WENT ABOUT TWO DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BUT WITH
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...HIGH TEMPS WARM A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. FORECAST MAY STILL EVEN BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE THOUGH.
11
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 427 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/
WET WEEK IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ORIENTATION OF THE BEST
MOISTURE FLOW PUTS NORTHWEST GA IN THE HIGHEST QPF ZONE...WITH
THREE TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER A STRONG WEDGE SHOULD DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEK WITH
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SHOULD INFLUENCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALSO. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING FOR
SATURDAY BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH ON SUNDAY. SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH 4-7 KFT CIGS...THEN CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR BY NEAR 09Z OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCE FOR -RA INCREASING
INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SITES /COULD
SEE MVFR VSBY REDUCTION AT TIMES/...THEN LOOKING TO HAVE ANOTHER
LULL IN COVERAGE AFTER ABOUT 09-11Z. CHANCES FOR NOW REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED TSRA...AND ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP MAY BE ADDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. WINDS MAINLY EAST 5-7 KTS BECOMING SE INTO TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 51 71 58 / 30 30 30 40
ATLANTA 66 54 71 60 / 50 50 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 60 49 63 56 / 50 80 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 63 50 70 59 / 60 70 50 60
COLUMBUS 72 57 77 61 / 40 40 30 40
GAINESVILLE 64 51 67 57 / 50 50 40 50
MACON 73 54 78 59 / 20 30 30 30
ROME 61 49 71 58 / 60 100 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 68 53 73 58 / 40 50 30 40
VIDALIA 76 57 81 62 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW H5/H7 RIDGE FLUCTUATING FROM THE WEST COAST ON INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ROCKIES. A CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER
TEXAS...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST ON INTO
THE ROCKIES AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH...RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE OUT OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR
POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLANS. GIVEN THIS...THE
EASTERN COLORADO AREA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF RAINSHOWERS AT BEST. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED...A RANGE
OF 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL OCCUR AS 925MB TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +15C UP TO +23C. THE HIGHER POINTS IN THIS RANGE
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WORKS OVER REGION...ALTOHUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BRING ABOUT
+20C AT 925MB BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH WARMEST
AREAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1222 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1.5 PVU SURFACE
INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RESPONSE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW AS MIXED LAYER VALUES...EVEN INCLUDING
SUPER ADIABATIC ADJUSTMENTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH UPPER 60S.
BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW
70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN H3 JET STREAMS REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN COMPLICATION TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEATHER WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY CAN MOVE INTO OUR
CWA ALONG WITH POSITION OF ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ECMWF
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY ON POSITION...THOUGH CONTINUE TO
VARY ON FINER DETAILS. LATEST ECMWF IS STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS A
DRIER SOLUTION. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL FRIDAY (POSSIBLY
FRIDAY EVENING) FROM ENSEMBLES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OPERATIONAL
GFS. I COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING STILL WITH DECREASING
LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL FORCING SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH WARMEST DAY ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70F. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES FOR NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WINDS JUST DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THERE AT
THIS POINT TO BE A CONCERN. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND...SO AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGHS IN THE 60S (FRIDAY/SATURDAY)...WE COULD SEE HIGHS BACK AROUND
70 ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
626 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS MAINE. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
626 PM...COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT THE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE IS A LOT LESS AND CONFINED TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS IN PART
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFF INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP DO TRY TO BRING SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT MORE CLOUD THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE
NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE EARLY THIS EVE AND INTO QUEBEC BY TUE PM. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS EARLY THIS EVENING THAT THERE COULD BE A
FEW PATCHES OF FOG THAT FORM LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPS TONIGHT
LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...SATELLITE...AND NEAR
TERM MODEL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IN NEW BRUNSWICK IS BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THAT IS CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
PRODUCING INSTABILITY TO AROUND H700. THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE
SNOW SHOWERS IS CAUSING VISIBILITY TO DROP AS LOW AS A QUARTER
MILE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AND
CLOUD COVER FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS RATHER TRICKY. EXPECT TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT SOME
OF THE COLDER VALLEYS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE WARM FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY MIGHT GET AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOW 40S TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST
REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY
CONDITIONS AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY GET SOME
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF.... BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MAINE... SO
TRENDS TO BRING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS WITH SOME
MODIFICATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: TEMPO IFR OR VLIFR IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS FOR THE
AREA ON LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FVE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR
VIS IN SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ..IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE JUST SHY OF SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN LATER TON THEY SHOULD
DIMINISH. THERE IS STILL A SHORT WINDOW THIS EVE WHERE THEY COULD
PICK UP TO LOW END SCA LEVELS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR NOW...
BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO DROP IT LATER THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: A LIMITED
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GO OFF-SHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO THURSDAY THEN
TRANSITION TO WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
101 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING SOME SNOW WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
OF MAINE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
THE WEAK LOW AND SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE
NATURE OF PRECIP HAS TURNED SHOWERY WITH A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ONE QUARTER MILE VIS POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR THE COLD FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THIS TERM WITH STRATIFORM
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME HEFTY SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
SHOWED LOW PRES W/THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF MAINE W/SOME SNOW MOVING IN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RUN
OF THE GFS AS WELL. A DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
W/GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL SETUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. 00Z UA & MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED MOISTURE UP THROUGH
700MBS. SSE FLOW AT THE SURFACE W/A SW FLOW ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING LEADING TO SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW(1-2 HRS) W/SNOW RATIOS ON THE AVERAGE OF
15-20:1. QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AVERAGING AROUND 0.10" OR SO.
THIS COUPLED W/THE AFOREMENTIONED RATIOS COULD LEAD TO 1-2" OF
SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, THE
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER W/POPS KEPT AT 30%.
STRATIFORM SNOW WINDS DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TRANSITION TO A
MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY EVENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
HIT 7-7.5 C/KM FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS. FORECAST CAPES OF
80-100+ JOULES COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS GOING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AS WELL AS THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENTS THIS
WINTER SEASON WHERE SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS HAVE SET UP W/THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING W/SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE IT A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE
QUITE THE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WARM FRONT. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED AN INVERSION SETTING UP BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BELOW 925MB W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WARMER STARTS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS & NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD
DROP OFF QUICK BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OR IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SNOW
PROBABILITIES AT CHANCE LEVELS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING W/A
PERIOD OF IFR IN SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON COULD DROP VSBYS DOWN TO
BELOW 1/2SM AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. BGR AND BHB
ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO VFR RIGHT INTO THE EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.
THE CHALLENGE WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AS A SSW FLOW SETS UP W/SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS(BELOW 1000 FT) DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
CATEGORIES TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS ATTM, THE OUTER
ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS/SEAS HIT
25 KT/5-6 FT. THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE 15-20 KT
SUSTAINED W/GUSTS BRIEFLY HITTING 25 KT W/SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS
LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A BRIEF
TIME W/WEAK RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AK THROUGH SRN CANADA...ALLOWING MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CNTRL ALBERTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN ONTARIO ON TUE. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND
LOW PRES OVER E CNTRL SASK. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME ISOLD READINGS
AROUND 50. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI TEMPS HAVE REMAINED
CLOSER TO 40.
TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE.
HOWEVER...SW GRADIENT FLOW AND MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS AOA
FREEZING IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND.
TUESDAY...AS THE ALBERTA SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO SW WINDS WILL VEER WRLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MILD AIR FROM THE PLAINS WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-
6C RANGE WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH MIXING ONLY TO
925-900 MB...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER...THE LOWER ALBEDO IN
THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING. HOWEVER...DOWNWIND
FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S FROM
THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE...ALLOWING ONLY QUICK GLANCING SHOTS OF
COLDER AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO -
6C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MORE
LIKELY HANG UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE
LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY ACROSS THE LAND AREAS. SHOULD JUST
END UP BEING A MILD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY IN THE 40S OR
LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL START OUT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO -9C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE LAKE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE ICE HAS OPENED DRAMATICALLY. THIS COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN W-SW FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR 850MB TEMPS TO POSSIBLY RISE TO CLOSE TO +10C MONDAY
/ABOVE +10C IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES/ WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 50S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
MAINLY JUST MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LOW-
LEVEL JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE
FORCE...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
540 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Rain expanding quickly to the north across southern Missouri at
this time. Latest RAP guidance shows precipitation shield
expanding to at least the I-70 corridor if not even further north
into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Have increased
POPs and trended forecast based on latest radar and RAP data.
Looks like a wet overnight and early Tuesday morning for a good
portion of the forecast area. At least its not snow.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
An upper level trough with embedded shortwaves over the Plains will
approach our area tonight. A south-southwesterly low level jet will
bring low level warm air advection along with increasing moisture to
southeast MO and southern IL tonight. The models were also
depicting some upper level divergence this afternoon and tonight
over much of our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough
and in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region. A surface low will move northeastward into
southern AR by 12z Tuesday with a rain shield spreading northward
into southeast MO south of I-70 this evening, then through southwest
IL and parts of central MO late tonight. The rain will not likely
get any further northwest of a line extending from COU to PPQ.
There may be some fog tonight, mainly across areas of IL north and
east of STL where there is melting snow cover before the rain moves
in.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Rain will continue Tuesday, particularly during the morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly from STL south and east, north
and northwest of the surface low moving northeastward through
western TN and into Kentucky by 00z Wednesday. The rain should
shift east-southeast of our forecast area by early Tuesday evening.
The low level clouds and precipitation will limit daytime heating
and lead to cooler temperatures across southeast MO and southwest
IL on Tuesday, with above normal temperatures continuing across
central and northeast MO. Warmer temperatures can be expected on
Wednesday with weak surface ridging extending from the Great Lakes
region southwest into MO with little cloud cover and plenty of solar
insolation expected. Another round of rain is expected for the end
of the work week ahead of an upper level low over the southern
Plains and north/northwest of another surface low which will move
northward from the Gulf Coast region, then northeastward through the
TN and OH Valley regions Friday night into Saturday. The models
were a little slower bringing rain northward into our area,
particularly the GFS. Tried to go with the compromise solution of
the ECMWF model which is quicker than the GFS, but not as fast as
the NAM with regards to the timing of the rain. Rain may spread
northward into parts of southeast MO Thursday afternoon, then move
through southeast MO and southwest IL, mainly southeast of STL
Thursday night through Friday night. The rain should shift
east-southeast of our forecast area by Saturday with slightly cooler
air moving into the region as an upper level trough moves through
the Great Lakes area and a surface ridge moves southeastward
through the region this weekend. The GFS model is a little cooler
than the ECMWF model due to its deeper upper level trough and slower
movement of the upper level trough as it closes off as it moves
southeastward through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
Weak boundary continues to wave across the area, thus wind are
pretty much light and variable. Winds will become more
consistently more southeast tonight as the wave moves out of Texas
and moves northeast. Big question again will be the extend of
MVFR/IFR clouds. Models have been going wild with stratus lately,
and some finally developed over the snow cover across southern
Illinois, and it is still hanging tough as close as Belleville.
IFR with the next system has surged north as far as central
Arkansas. For now will bring MVFR into COU, SUS and CPS about 10z.
Would nto be surprised to see some IFR Tuesday am.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR with some mid cloud and cirrus today,
gradually dropping to MVFR with rain around 10z, which is a good
an estimate as any right now. MOdels pretty consistent with the
shortwave lifting out of Texas, the question will be how much and
when possible IFR arrives. Given STL is more on the edge of this
system will just go with MVFR for now. Would not be surprised to
see IFR sometime Tuesday am.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. -RA AND BR/FG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 1/2SM FG... WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4SM FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SWRN OK
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS RELAX AND CEILINGS GO FROM OVC TO BKN/SCT. FELT
CONFIDENT IN PREVAILING 1/2SM FG ACROSS CENTRAL OK... INCLUDING
OKC/OUN/PNC. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT ACROSS WRN
AND SRN OK... FELT TEMPOS WERE WARRANTIED AT CSM/HBR/LAW/SPS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES... BUT GENERAL
DIRECTIONS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
RAINY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE.
DENSE FOG HAS GENERALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THUS...ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. REFORMATION OF DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DOWNWARDS SOUTH OF THE
LINE MENTIONED ABOVE AND SLIGHTLY UPWARDS IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING AND
ADDED THE CLINTON...WEATHERFORD...AND WATONGA AREAS.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID LINE
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
A COOL DREARY WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS.
LATEST VISIBILITIES RANGED BETWEEN 0 AND 1/4 MILE NEAR ALTUS...
CLINTON...AND WEATHERFORD. THINK THIS FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...THUS MADE THE EXTENSION AND EXPANSION
TO THE ADVISORY ABOVE.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. IT APPEARS THAT STEADY
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH. RAIN MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
AREAS...THOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DENSE. MORE DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
DID NOT ALTER FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
TOO WARM WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 42 64 41 / 100 40 10 0
HOBART OK 54 41 66 41 / 70 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 44 65 42 / 90 30 10 0
GAGE OK 64 37 69 39 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 41 67 40 / 30 20 10 0
DURANT OK 53 45 61 45 / 100 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. ADDED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAINY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
A HOLLIS TO CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE.
DENSE FOG HAS GENERALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THUS...ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. REFORMATION OF DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DOWNWARDS SOUTH OF THE
LINE MENTIONED ABOVE AND SLIGHTLY UPWARDS IN NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING AND
ADDED THE CLINTON...WEATHERFORD...AND WATONGA AREAS.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID LINE
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...
A COOL DREARY WET DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE.
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS.
LATEST VISIBILITIES RANGED BETWEEN 0 AND 1/4 MILE NEAR ALTUS...
CLINTON...AND WEATHERFORD. THINK THIS FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...THUS MADE THE EXTENSION AND EXPANSION
TO THE ADVISORY ABOVE.
ALSO...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR OUTPUT. IT APPEARS THAT STEADY
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH. RAIN MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN
AREAS...THOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DENSE. MORE DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
DID NOT ALTER FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
TOO WARM WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 42 64 41 / 100 40 10 0
HOBART OK 54 41 66 41 / 70 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 52 44 65 42 / 90 30 10 0
GAGE OK 64 37 69 39 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 41 67 40 / 30 20 10 0
DURANT OK 53 45 61 45 / 100 70 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
128 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FIRST OF ALL THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AND
RELATIVELY MILDER AIR ALONG WITH MELTING SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS WAS
HELPING TO CAUSE THE FOG. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS WITH PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A VERY WET WORK WEEK FOR THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
PRESENTLY INDICATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES FROM ALONG THE
TN RIVER INTO NORTHEAST MS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS OVER TX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN QUICKLY SPREADING BACK
OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...REACHING TO NEAR JONESBORO AND
JACKSON AROUND NOON WITH RAIN COVERING MOST OF NORTH MS BY THAT
TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE AND A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH
POPS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE REGION MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. THE
GFS AND NAM INDICATE THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
THE ECMWF DOES KEEP THE RAIN IN LONGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
MENTIONED THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
FINALLY CHANGES AND WE BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR SATURDAY...
BUT THINK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN FREE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY.
JCL
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
A BROKEN AREA OF RAIN FROM EAST TX INTO SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE
IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AN ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES SHOULD GET
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT.
WER
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
An upper shortwave moving northeast across West Texas this afternoon
was bringing light showers...mainly along and north of Big Lake...
San Angelo...Brownwood line. The showers will come to an end tonight
as the the upper shortwave brings subsidence in its wake. The short
range HRRR and NAM models depict the current showers the best, indicating
them to gradually weaken and dissipate over the Big Country this
evening. Have a 50 percent chance of showers over the Big Country
this evening, with a slight chance to the south. A moist boundary
layer and wet vegetation will promote fog formation tonight, but
with low and mid level clouds in place, dense fog is not expected.
Models indicate clearing skies Tuesday as dry mid level air moves in
from the west. Most areas will see partly cloudy skies by mid
afternoon. Highs are expected in the lower and mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
The rest of the week into next weekend looks pleasant for our
area, with less cloud cover and near seasonal temperatures.
Upper trough extending from eastern Kansas southwest across Texas
into Mexico will slowly weaken through Wednesday, with a weak closed
low developing over north-central or northwest Texas on Thursday.
An upstream shortwave trough is progged to dive south across the
Great Basin, forming a closed low over northwest Mexico on Friday.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF take the low south across western Mexico, to
just south of the Baja Peninsula next weekend. This will help to
maintain a weak upper trough from Missouri southwest across Texas
and Mexico. Despite the position of the trough, a lack of
sufficient moisture and weak lift will result in minimal rain
chances for our area. With a lack of cold air intrusions or
significant warmups, temperatures will be close to normal for this
time in March. May see a backdoor cold frontal passage Saturday
night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 43 64 43 69 43 / 50 10 5 10 5
San Angelo 45 67 40 71 42 / 20 10 5 10 5
Junction 48 65 42 70 42 / 20 10 10 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES ARE ON THE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR CATEGORY WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO VFR.
PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT KCDS AT TIMES BUT THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PRECLUDES DISPERSING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR TIMELINE FOR DISPERSION TOMORROW
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LIFR DECKS AND VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KPVW...LIFR DECKS AND VLIFR
VIS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KLBB
THUS FAR THOUGH VIS HAS DROPPED TO 6SM. HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS
HINT AT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AT KLBB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED MVFR DECKS AND IFR VIS FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE AT KLBB...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. EXPECT THE
FOG TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING AS WELL AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENSUE UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHERE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT -SHRA COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INSERT A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A JET STREAK/LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UA
TROUGH...THAT IS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX...AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS MANAGED TO
DRIFT NWRD TO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. E-SE SFC WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW
SOUTH PLAINS COINCIDING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN /WHERE
THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ AND DRIFTING TO ACROSS THE FAR SRN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-7
DEGREES EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. MOST METARS EAST
AND SE OF THE FA REPORT FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO 3-5
MILES...WITH A FEW STATIONS HAVING DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4
MILE ALL OF WHICH HAVE A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND EXHIBITS BOTH THE
FOG AND STRATUS DECKS FILLING IN WESTWARD TO ACROSS ALL BUT
PERHAPS THE FAR WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY
FALLING BELOW 1/2 MILE...BEFORE IMPROVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FURTHERMORE...SFC WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK TO THE N-NE CWA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING SWRD.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE JET STREAK WILL BE FLEETING BY
MORNING THUS HINTING AT LOWERED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION...ANOTHER EMBEDDED IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE ERN
SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AS THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE EXITS THE REGION LEAVING LINGERING PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
ABOVE THE 50S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS FINALLY SEEM TO BE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE MID-TERM. THE JET STREAK BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE THE AREA WILL SPRINT NEWD TONIGHT LEAVING A TROUGH
BACK OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO
ELONGATE SWD AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FROM THE NRN JET STREAM AND LINGERING OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
MIDWEEK. STILL...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK WITH NO
REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION /ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLITY OF FEW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS ERN NM WHICH WILL HAVE ONLY THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF DRIFTING EWD INTO THE FAR SWRN PANHANDLE/.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THEN HAVE
ITS ENERGY SPLIT WITH THE SRN PIECE MOVING SWD TO THE 4-CORNERS
WHERE IT THEN CLOSES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO KICK THE CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEWD. THIS
4-CORNERS LOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER TO WRN PARTS
OF THE FCST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING LESS
FAVORABLE AS EACH RUN SEEMS TO HOLD THIS ENERGY FARTHER TO THE
WEST. ATTM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES IN AIR MASS SUGGEST
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. A MODEST COLD
FRONT DROPPING TEMPS SOME LATE IN THE WEEK THE EXCEPTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 34 62 35 / 20 0 10 0
TULIA 55 34 64 37 / 20 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 56 34 63 38 / 20 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 58 35 64 39 / 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 58 35 65 39 / 30 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 37 62 40 / 30 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 36 63 39 / 30 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 56 40 68 41 / 40 20 10 0
SPUR 54 40 65 41 / 50 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 53 42 64 41 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN SHIELD IS CLEAR OF KDRT AND IN WILL BE CLEAR OF KSSF/KSAT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BUT GENERALLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS
APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOWERING CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LIFR FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MID MORNING TOMORROW.
TB3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MEDINA AND FRIO
COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL
CANCELLATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THE BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST A BIT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR BY 2 PM THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA BY 22Z. UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
THIS PROGRESSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 48 65 47 71 49 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 64 47 70 48 / 20 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 66 47 71 48 / 20 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 63 45 69 46 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 51 71 50 74 49 / 20 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 63 46 69 47 / 20 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 69 47 72 46 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 65 47 70 49 / 20 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 64 50 69 51 / 50 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 67 48 71 48 / 20 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 68 48 72 49 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MEDINA AND FRIO
COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL
CANCELLATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THE BACK
EDGE TO THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO
EAST A BIT SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR BY 2 PM THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE CWA BY 22Z. UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
THIS PROGRESSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. FLYING CATEGORY
WILL BE IFR OR LIFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. DRT SHOULD SEE
THE RAIN END BY MID-MORNING...BUT CIG WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
VIS WILL DROP AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE
BIG BEND. MOIST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. PWAT VALUES VERY MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH NOSE OF 10 DEG C
85MB DEW POINTS NOW TO INTERSTATE 10...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT 300MB
PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN
ELGIN TO LOCKHART TO FLORESVILLE LINE. HAVE TRIMMED
BURNET...BLANCO...KENDALL AND BANDERA COUNTIES OUT OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. WAS TEMPTED TO TRIM COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR OUT AS WELL...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DOING THIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT
ALREADY HAS FALLEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG RE-DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA.
JR
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH A LOW CUTTING
OFF IN THE BASE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO HAVE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY. EVENTUALLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MAY RETURN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 48 65 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 47 64 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 48 66 47 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 46 63 45 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 51 71 50 74 / 90 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 47 63 46 69 / 100 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 49 69 47 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 47 65 47 70 / 100 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 49 64 50 69 / 100 50 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 49 67 48 71 / 100 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 49 68 48 72 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00