Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/08/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
941 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE TURNING MORE SEASONABLE WITH A SHOT OF WET WEATHER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY MIDWEEK. CONTINUED SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO A POTENTIAL WET-WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH
WILL BE CASE OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR ASIDE FROM
SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
W/SW FLOW. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER UPSTATE NY SHOULD HAVE TOUGH
TIME MAKING IT OVER BERKSHIRES. FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL SO
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A STRUGGLE. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN UPPER
20S TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT HIGH RES MODELS INSIST ON
CLEARING WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CORRECT BASED UPON SATELLITE.
AS A RESULT GFS LAMP...GRIDDED LAMP AND RAP 2M TEMPERATURES SHOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS WHICH IS MUCH TOO
COLD. KEEPING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW PUSHING A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. IN FACT THE AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED.
INCREASING LLJ BEHIND THE FRONT MAY INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 20-25
MPH...VERY SIMILAR TODAY...DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOW 40S AS HIGH TEMPS AND DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- MORE SEASONABLE PATTERN
- THREATS OF RAIN MIDWEEK AND BY THE WEEKEND
*/ OVERVIEW...
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATIVE OF A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE BROADER PATTERN
ALOFT TOWARDS THE E. SUBSEQUENT SIGNALS OF A WARMER PERHAPS WETTER
PATTERN AS TROUGHING WEAKENS OVER THE NE-CONUS AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE BAD FOR OUR REGION. STRONGER
SW-FLOW UP AGAINST WEAKER NW-WINDS COULD RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE
OF OVER-RUNNING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. WARM-MOIST AIR OVER
THE SNOWPACKED REGION...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL CONCERNS OF FLOODING
AND ICING.
WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY INTO SPRING AS THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION
HOLDS A LIQUID WATER CONTENT AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. A SLOW SNOW-MELT
IS FAVORED OVER A FAST MELT COMBINED WITH RAIN. WITH THE LATER...
WATERSHEDS ALONG WITH URBAN AREAS / BASEMENTS WOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLOODING.
A 07.12Z GFS / REGIONAL CANADIAN BLEND WAS FAVORED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
*/ DAILY DISCUSSION...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED N-STREAM SYSTEM WILL USHER A SHOT OF COLD AIR AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. OTHERWISE
DRY WITH BLUSTERY W-WINDS AS CLOUDS BREAK TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF
THE DAY. NEAR-SEASONABLE HIGHS...BUT A POSSIBLE CHILLY NIGHT WITH A
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS. N-STREAM AND S-STREAM SYSTEM SLIP THROUGH THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
THE TWO WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE AREA IN-BETWEEN OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY-WEATHER WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT. LIMITED CONFIDENCE AS TO BOTH
TIMING AND IMPACT BUT AGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER THAT THE CONFLUENT-
FLOW OVER THE NE-CONUS SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW S. SO FAVOR BOTH THE
07.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN.
OUTCOMES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GREATEST CONCERN IS
ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF ANY WOULD BE
GREATEST. ALONG WITH SNOW-MELT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
THE BROADER TROUGHING PATTERN SHIFTING SUBTLY E WE FIND OURSELVES
WITHIN THE W-PERIPHERY OF AIRMASSES. LOOKING DRY WITH COOLER WEATHER
N/E WITH MILDER CONDITIONS S/W.
WEEKEND...
MORE ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING TOWARDS A WET PATTERN. ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY
OF A MAINTAINED BERMUDA HIGH...S-STREAM IMPULSE SLIPS N ALONG WITH A
GOOD SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE. APPEARING AS A GOOD OVER-RUNNING EVENT
BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO GO ON SPECIFICS. TWO CONCERNS THOUGH: RAINFALL
ACROSS THE DENSE SNOWPACK ADDING TO ROOF COLLAPSES / FLOODING...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH LENDING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICING
PRIOR TO A FRONT-END THUMP OF SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST WITH LIGHT S/SW-WINDS. ISOLATED -SHSN
OR FLURRIES. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO SUNDAY AS ACTIVITY CLEARS
OUT AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE W WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT
NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MORNING -SN MAINLY N OF MASS-PIKE.
IMPROVING BY MIDDAY WITH BLUSTERY W-WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH -RA MAINLY IMPACTING THE S-COAST. COULD
GO LOWER TO LIFR AS WARMER AIR SURGES OVER THE COLD GROUND. THINKING
WITH -RA SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH LOW FOG UNDER BREEZY S/SW-WINDS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY W/NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
940 PM UPDATE...
EXTENDED SCA FOR S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAKE
A FEW MORE HOURS TO SUBSIDE. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS WIND GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 20KTS...DISSIPATING BY
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BLUSTERY W-WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE
DAY AND INTO EVENING. COULD SEE WAVES BUILD UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RELAX BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR THE S-WATERS. BREEZY S/SW WINDS BUT BELOW 20
KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. THE SURGE OF WARM-MOIST AIR N
ACROSS THE COLDER WATERS IS LOOKING TO RESULT IN SOUPY CONDITIONS
WITH VISIBILITIES THAT COULD BE DOWN BELOW HALF A MILE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W/NW AND BECOME
BLUSTERY. WILL SEE WAVES BUILD ON THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1239 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG MARCH SUN WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY.
HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP AROUND 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOW
INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING. WINDS SPEEDS THEN INCREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY...BUT
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE DECREASED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY AS A RESULT. LOCALIZED
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MID DAY. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW
HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW INFORMATION FOR THIS MORNING FOLLOWS.
STATION LOW TEMP OLD RECORD
EWR 12 12/2007 (TIED)
BDR 9 11/2007 (BROKEN)
NYC 12 6/1872 (NO RECORD)
LGA 15 14/2007 (NO RECORD)
JFK 13 13/2007 (TIED)
ISP 12 12/2007 (TIED)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GS
NEAR TERM...GS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GS
HYDROLOGY...GS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
957 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATED RECORD LOW INFORMATION.
HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS
AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE
DAY/EARLY EVE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN NORTH OF THE CITY.
.SUNDAY THROUGH-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE DECREASED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY AS A RESULT. LOCALIZED
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MID DAY. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW
HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW INFORMATION FOR THIS MORNING FOLLOWS.
STATION LOW TEMP OLD RECORD
EWR 12 12/2007 (TIED)
BDR 9 11/2007 (BROKEN)
NYC 12 6/1872 (NO RECORD)
LGA 15 14/2007 (NO RECORD)
JFK 13 13/2007 (TIED)
ISP 12 12/2007 (TIED)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL OCCUR TODAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND
NOON. IT HAD BEEN DELAYED DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GS
NEAR TERM...GS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GS
HYDROLOGY...GS
CLIMATE...GS
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
642 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL
BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS
WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD
LOWS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE
DAY/EARLY EVE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN NORTH OF THE CITY.
.SUNDAY THROUGH-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS
AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT
WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6
EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL
BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS
WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD
LOWS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY
EVE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS
AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT
WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6
EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
629 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE
HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...
FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK..
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS SNE EXCEPT FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS
ACROSS CAPE COD. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ACK. RAP HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE
CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM OUT TO SEA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW.
OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A VERY COLD
START HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN LOW TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
ALSO CHECKED RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH LOOK TO BE OUT OF
REACH...ESPECIALLY BOSTON!
BOSTON...9 IN 1872 /LOW THAT DAY WAS -8/
PROVIDENCE...22 IN 2007
HARTFORD...19 IN 2007
WORCESTER...16 IN 2007
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP
SNOWPACK SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS
AND TEENS. IT PROBABLY WON/T BE AS COLD AS IT IS THIS MORNING DUE
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT AS WARM ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATER IN DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY.
INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
* PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD
MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE
INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS.
HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING
BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE
LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH COULD COME CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED
AS GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH
COOLER TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST.
THURSDAY...
COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT.
VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020 NEAR OUTER CAPE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
N WINDS TODAY AND MORE OF W/SW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS APPROACH
SCA LATER SAT AFTERNOON ON S COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SAT NIGHT...SCA WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS
AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD
LOWS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY
EVE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS
AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT
WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6
EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE
HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...
FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK..
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
240 AM UPDATE...
CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE.
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS N-S OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD BANDS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT WITH DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. RAP HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON TIMING AND SHOWS
THESE OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS BACKING ONTO CAPE COD THIS MORNING...BEFORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THEM OUT
TO SEA.
OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A VERY COLD
START WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS INTERIOR TO TEENS AT COAST...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN LOW TO
MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
ALSO CHECKED RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH LOOK TO BE OUT OF
REACH...ESPECIALLY BOSTON!
BOSTON...9 IN 1872 /LOW THAT DAY WAS -8/
PROVIDENCE...22 IN 2007
HARTFORD...19 IN 2007
WORCESTER...16 IN 2007
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP
SNOWPACK SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS
AND TEENS. IT PROBABLY WON/T BE AS COLD AS IT IS THIS MORNING DUE
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT AS WARM ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATER IN DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY.
INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
* PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD
MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE
INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS.
HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING
BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE
LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH CLOUD COME CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED AS
GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH COOLER
TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST.
THURSDAY...
COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT.
VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020 NEAR OUTER CAPE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
N WINDS TODAY AND MORE OF W/SW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS APPROACH
SCA LATER SAT AFTERNOON ON S COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SAT NIGHT...SCA WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ATLANTA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THESE BANDS ARE QUICKLY ERODING... AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS LARGE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO SHOW AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT AND SHOW
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH... AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S
SOUTH. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUAL ERODING OF MVFR AND LOW MID
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING BY 19-20Z TODAY FOR AHN AND ATLANTA AREA TAF
SITES... AND A BIT LATER FOR CSG AND MCN. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY NW AROUND 3-6KTS THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN
BACKING MORE WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ATLANTA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THESE BANDS ARE QUICKLY ERODING... AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS LARGE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO SHOW AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT AND SHOW
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH... AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S
SOUTH. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A
LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST
LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS
WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN
SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A
LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST
LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS
WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN
SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH AND IS MARKED
BY A FINE LINE ON KCLX 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY 4 AM BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. RAIN IS
QUICKLY ENDING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. H3R AND RAP WET-BULB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKELEY COUNTY AFTER 4 AM WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -FZDZ IN
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED.
TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
905 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT....
COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS IT DOES SO. THERE ISNT A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT....AS WELL AS A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ENABLE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
CHICAGO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN AND NEAR
DOWNTOWN.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON HANDLING A BAND OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON SUNDAY...STRONGEST AT 700 MB. THERE WAS BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY IN POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT ALSO IN WEAKENING THE FGEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...DID REINTRODUCE POPS...BUT KEPT THEM IN
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MENTIONED OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN GRIDS. CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAVORED. MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THEN WASHOUT...WITH BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-80...AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LET TEMPERATURES DIP INTO
THE 20S. A FEW UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY.
MONDAY...
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OFF THE
EXISTING SNOW COVER. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY
OVERALL. PROGGED 850/925 MB TEMPERATURE CLIMO ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
LOW-MID 40S FOR HIGHS...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANTICIPATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO REALIZE WARMING FROM MILD MID TO HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AIR MASS AT 850 AND 925 MB TO BE
REALIZED...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AIRMASS
WILL BE AS WARM OR WARM ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...A
BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR OUR MOST POPULOUS AREA...INCLUDING
CHICAGO...WILL BE THE FRIGID WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WAS HOPING
THAT THE CONSISTENT IDEA SHOWN BY THE GFS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY WOULD NOT PAN OUT...BUT NOW AM MORE
CONCERNED...AS 12Z ECMWF JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...WITH BETTER SUPPORT FOR
ONSHORE FLOW ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES LAKESIDE WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S...IF NOT 60S IN SPOTS. GUIDANCE SPED UP ARRIVAL
OF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE
WEEK...SO NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF CWA. AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE QUITE MILD...SO NO PTYPE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. ONSHORE
FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.
RC
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* WEST WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.
* SOME HAZE/MIST MAY REDUCE VSBY LATE TONIGHT.
* CIGS LOWER LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING WEST
WINDS IN PLACE BEFORE THEY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY
SEE SOME VSBY REDUCTION IN HAZE/MIST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT AM NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE
INCREASING LATE. THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION ANY VSBY REDUCTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING LOWERING CIGS DURING THE MORNING WITH LOWEST CIGS
EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MVFR POTENTIAL BUT AT THIS POINT OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING/MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY EVENING WITH SKIES EXPECTED
TO SCATTER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTION LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR AND LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT SOME MVFR MAY OCCASIONALLY OCCUR. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
205 PM CST
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE LAKE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN THE
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN
CONUS...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT
AGAIN BEFORE BACKING TO SWLY AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW
CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD JAMES BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY SWLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SWLY-NWLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SHOULD HELP BREAK UP ICE COVERAGE OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...OPENING UP THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BY MIDWEEK...A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP ELY-SELY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM
MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
902 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A cold front will drop south through Illinois tonight. High
pressure immediately behind the front will cause winds to shift
from west to N-NW and become light. Somewhat drier air will begin
to arrive behind the front as well. However, the 00z model
guidance and latest HRRR update all show a narrow ribbon of
moisture at the ground level overnight. Dewpoint depressions have
dipped to 4-6F already in several areas, with overnight lows
projected to drop 10-14 degrees below current readings. HRRR
visibility projections had steadily improved with each hourly
update this afternoon and early evening, with no dense fog in our
counties overnight. The last update introduced some 5 mile fog,
with dense fog just north of Galesburg to Lacon. Will continue
with no mention of fog in the grids/forecast due to no sites
showing any hint of vis restrictions even with small dewpoint
depressions.
The only clouds of note overnight will be some cirrus in the
southern stream flows into our counties south of I-70, and some
mid clouds in the northern stream reaching our NW counties toward
sunrise. Only adjustments this evening were minor changes in
clouds and hourly temp trends. Overall forecast in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
20z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold extending from southern
Lake Michigan to far northern Missouri. Ahead of the boundary, W/SW
winds and abundant sunshine have resulted in temperatures rising
well into the 40s across central and southeast Illinois. In fact,
readings have reached the lower to middle 50s from Bloomington and
Lincoln westward to the Mississippi River where most of the snow
cover has melted. The cold front will sweep through the area this
evening, turning the winds to the W/NW but bringing in only a
slightly cooler airmass. Overnight low temperatures will generally
be in the middle to upper 20s. Some high-res models such as the
HRRR continue to suggest fog development tonight: however, given
slightly drier air advecting in from the west and no signs of
visibility obstruction this afternoon, think this is overdone and
will not be including fog in the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
Short-wave trough evident on 20z/2pm water vapor imagery over
southern Saskatchewan will track southeastward and skirt across
northern Illinois on Sunday. Mid/high clouds will be on the
increase ahead of this feature late tonight, with mostly cloudy
conditions expected across the northern half of the KILX CWA on
Sunday. While the wave will be weakening with time, most models try
to squeeze out some light QPF, mainly further north toward the I-80
corridor. Forecast soundings remain quite dry below 850mb, so do
not think any measurable precip will occur. Have included a chance
for sprinkles north of the Peoria area in closer proximity to the
vort max track. Further south, partly to mostly cloudy but dry
conditions will prevail. Due to the cloud cover and a light SE
flow, temperatures will be held down a bit, with readings in the
lower to middle 40s.
High pressure will take control of the weather on Monday, leading to
sunny skies and slightly warmer temps in the middle to upper 40s.
As the high moves off to the east, a southern stream wave will
approach from the southwest. 12z Mar 7 models are in fairly good
agreement that this feature will brush the SE CWA late Monday night
into Tuesday. GEM is the most bullish with precip spreading further
N/NW, but think this is too aggressive based on dry low-level
profiles. Will increase cloud cover across the E/SE Monday night
into Tuesday and mention a slight chance for rain south of I-70.
Elsewhere around the area, partial sunshine and light southerly
flow will boost highs into the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday.
After a warm/dry day on Wednesday with highs well into the 50s
across the board, yet another southern stream storm system will
approach from the south later in the week. Models do not have a
good handle on this feature yet, with the latest ECMWF spreading
rain into central Illinois as early as Thursday afternoon while
the GFS holds off until Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, the
GEM is completely dry through Friday, as it keeps the system
further southeast across the Ohio River Valley. Given the model
discrepancies, made very few changes to the current forecast. Will
maintain warm/dry weather through Thursday, then will introduce
PoPs Thursday night and Friday. Best rain chances appear to be
along/east of I-55, but will keep them in the chance category
until better model agreement is achieved.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A weak high pressure ridge will build over the area tonight,
bringing light/variable wind and clear skies. An upper level
disturbance passing to the north on Sunday will increase mid level
clouds during the morning, and as the high shifts to the southeast, light
southeast flow will develop during the afternoon. Some isolated
visibility reduction may occur late tonight through sunrise, but
due to low confidence will leave out and monitor for later forecasts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
153 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST THRU THE ROCKIES BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE LEVEL
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MAIN WX
FEATURE WITH A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH AIDS IN INCREASING TEMPS WITH STRONG WAA ON SW FLOW.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD
W/ TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS INVERTED RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO AREA AS TROUGH PASSES. OVERALL SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE IN UPSLOPE REGION AS REGION UNDER
EASTERLY FETCH.
FOR AREA TEMPS THOUGH...925MB NUMBERS WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +15C
OVER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHS...AND +17C TO NEAR +21C
FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CAA WITH SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
GOING TO GIVE THE AREA HIGH TEMPS 5-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR SUN-MON...AND 60S TO NEAR 70S(WED)
FOR REST OF TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO START UP TO THE MID 30S BY END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DRY AND CALM WEATHER. AN OCCASIONAL GUST CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT AT KGLD LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES
ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA
MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND
NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS
BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY
BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED
THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST
EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.
CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO
NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C
AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7
WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT
MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C.
MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3-
5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE
FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW.
IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT
H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY
PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH AND
EXPAND EASTWARD...CAUSING THE ERN TROF TO LIFT NE AND DIMINISH IN
AMPLITUDE. THESE CHANGES WILL CAUSE ARCTIC AIR TO RETEAT AND WILL
ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO MAKE INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE
AREA...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE CHANGING PATTERN
WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...CONTINUING THE DRY
SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. IN FACT...EXCLUDING SUN...MANY
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN NEXT WEEK. FARTHER DOWN
THE LINE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO
NORMAL TEMP REGIME MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BLO NORMAL (MORE OF THE GEM ENSEMBLES OUT AT DAY 16
ARE SHOWING REBUILDING OF A FAR WRN NAMERICE RIDGE). PATTERN STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUN...2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY SAT NIGHT...850MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14C
MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT NW FLOW LES. AS WINDS BACK WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND APPROACH OF LOW PRES TROF...THE LIGHT LES
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF TO THE SW IN SRN MN/NRN
IA...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FARTHER N MAY
SPREAD SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. AFTER ANY LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES END
SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE...
850MB TEMPS OF -11/-12C SHOULDN`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHT LES SUN EVENING.
RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO WARMING FOR MON/TUE.
PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -11C MON MORNING TO
RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH BETTER MOISTENING INDICATED TO THE N AND E OF HERE...
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. SO...ONLY
EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A
BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS WON`T DOMINATE EITHER
DAY. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF
SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON-TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AT SOME POINT MON/TUE. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL TOP 50F EITHER DAY...BUT MORE
LIKELY OVER THE SCNTRL ON TUE.
BIGGEST MODEL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY IS FOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO TO BE QUICKER...AND THUS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
THRU UPPER MI SOONER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS YESTERDAY. WILL BE A
TREND TO MONITOR THAT MAY AFFECT TUE TEMPS. FOR NOW...THIS MEANS A
COOLER WED IS NOW EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING NOSES SE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WED...RESULTING IN THE ADDITIVE CHILL OF LIGHT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI. TIGHT 850MB TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR (10C DIFFERENCE FROM SW UPPER
MI TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SUPPORT A DECENT SFC TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WED
WHILE LWR 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE N AND E. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO MAY GENERATE PATCHY
-SN/FLURRIES WITHIN THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT...BUT AT THIS POINT...
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
ALTHOUGH WAA GETS UNDERWAY AGAIN THU...IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL
OF COLUMN MOISTENING IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR DEEPER
INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR TO THE N OF UPPER MI. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FCST FOR THU.
12Z GFS CONTINUES ALONG THE LINES OF SOME PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING
WHAT WOULD LIKELY END UP AS A MIXED PCPN EVENT FRI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. UNTIL OTHER
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...WILL HOLD OFF FROM INCLUDING AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. VSBY MAY
DROP TO IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE
SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES
ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA
MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND
NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS
BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY
BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED
THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST
EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.
CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO
NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C
AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7
WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT
MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C.
MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3-
5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE
FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW.
IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT
H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE VERY PERSISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED WEATHER OVER ERN
NAMERICA FOR MORE THAN A MONTH WILL BE WEAKENING AS POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH. THESE CHANGES WILL
RESULT IN A MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE...ALLOWING
PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR UPPER MI...THIS MEANS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
RETREATING ARCTIC AIR THRU THE WEEKEND...AND THEN NEXT WEEK...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SRN CANADA IN THE MORE
ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW. AS FOR PCPN...DESPITE THE CHANGING PATTERN
WEATHER STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
BEGINNING SAT...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH SCNTRL CANADA WILL
REACH THE UPPER LAKES SAT MORNING. MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE
280-285K SFCS (700-850MB) WHICH SHOULD YIELD A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN
AT MOST LOCATIONS. MIXING RATIOS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ARE 2G/KG
BUT THE PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHORT-LIVED...AND MUCH OF THE
LIFT WILL GO INTO MOISTENING THE DRY LOW-LEVELS ALREADY IN PLACE.
SO...EXPECT MAYBE 3HRS OR SO OF STEADIER -SN SAT MORNING IN THE NW
AND ERN FCST AREA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE/BEST HEIGHT
FALLS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS
SAT MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES AND A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -14C
BEHIND SHORTWAVE ON SAT...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT LES OFF THE OPEN
SPOTS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER FOR THE NW SNOWBELTS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...TWO MORE SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THRU THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. INITIALLY...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WX SAT NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE AXIS/WSHFT TO THE SW THAT
WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING LIGHT LES OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE SAT
NIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF TO THE SW IN SRN
MN/SW WI WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE DUE TO ARRIVE SUN AFTN...ASSOC SHSN MAY BE ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. 850MB TEMPS -10 TO -12C PROBABLY WON`T BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO GENERATE MUCH IF ANY LES SUN EVENING IN A
WESTERLY FLOW.
RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DOMINATING
MON THRU THU AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO THE N OF THE UPPER LAKES.
PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -10C MON MORNING TO
RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING...BUT THEN TEMPS WL FALL TO -2C NORTH
TO 2C SOUTH BY WED MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE
THAN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO
FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI BY EARLY MARCH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON
THRU WED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S BY TUE
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS TUE AND WED. GIVEN EXPECTED PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT...EXPECT THE N TO BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WED THAN TUE WHILE THE
S SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS TEMPS. IF TUE OR WED ENDS UP
MOSTLY SUNNY...COULD SEE SOME LOW 50S TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. SFC HIGH PRES DROPPING TO THE NE AND E OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON THU IN AN ERLY FLOW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. VSBY MAY
DROP TO IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE
SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
HEADING FOR THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
NRN MOST ONE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...WITH THE SRN ONE WORKING
THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE NRN WAVE IS ON ITS WAY TO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW HEADING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SRN WAVE WILL HEAD FOR SW MN...BUT WILL HAVE NO SFC INFLECTION.
INSTEAD...THIS SRN WAVE WILL HELP STOP THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS SRN MN AND HELP PUSH IT BACK ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
RATHER BLEAK CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PROBLEM...AS THESE
WAVES MOISTEN THE ATMO ABOVE 10K FT...BUT NOT MUCH BELOW THAT. THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
WAVE...WITH A QUICK HIT OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY GOING OVER NRN MN.
EXISTING POPS HAD SOME SMALL POPS NORTH OF I-94 AND KEPT THOSE IN
PLACE...JUST SPED THEM UP A TAD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS FROM THE NMM AND ARW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP WE DO SEE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SLIP THROUGH THE
AREA AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL LIKELY SEE A
BANK OF STRATOCU WORK DOWN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS WE WORK INTO THE AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL BACK A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TODAY THOUGH WILL BE THE BREEZY NW
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE
MIXED CHANNEL WINDS OUT IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY UP AROUND 30 KTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MILD AND QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY END
UP BEING THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST OCTOBER. WE ARE
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS TUE-FRI...AND WE`RE
BEING CAUTIOUS. 60S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH.
THE ECMWF MOS WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AND IT
WAS ALSO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...IF THAT
IS TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THEN WE ARE LIKELY YO COOL
WITH OUR TEMPERATURE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE A FAN OF
WARMTH...THAT IS GOOD NEWS AND SUGGESTS A LOT OF LOCATIONS WILL
MAKE A RUN AT 60 FOR 2-3 DAYS. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL WE
MIX. THE GFS HAS A KNOWN COOL BIAS WITH TEMPS AND IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDER FORECASTING THE MIXING POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK. THE SNOW COVER
WILL BE GONE BY NEXT WEEK AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER LOCALLY
AND UPSTREAM SUGGEST FORECASTERS SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKE THE ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE STRAIGHT 2M TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND THE ECMWF MOS IS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60. WE BOOSTED HIGHS TODAY AND IF
THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO HOLD...WE WILL LIKELY GO WARMER IN
THE DAYS TO COME.
IN TERMS OF PRECIP...THERE ISN`T MUCH GOING FOR MN/WI. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SIGNAL IS WEAK LOCALLY WITH A WEAK NORTHERN WAVE AND WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. A DAY AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...BUT
THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH AND MAY MISS THE FORECAST AREA
COMPLETELY. WE STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH JUST
TRACE-0.02" LIQUID...BUT WE COULD PROBABLY REMOVE THAT AT SOME
POINT. THE PROBLEM IS WE ARE TRYING TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN FROM THE
W/NW AND THAT TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD MUCH...MAY SOME MID CLOUDS
AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR VIRGA IN SOUTHERN MN. SOME OF THE WRF
SOLUTIONS WE HAVE ACCESS TO GENERATE LIGHT AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN IOWA. NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR MOISTURE HERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS
NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF
NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS
WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE.
GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT
AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR
WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT
30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE
MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN
HOLD TOGETHER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS.
MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.
AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.
THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS
NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF
NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS
WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE.
GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT
AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR
WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT
30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE
MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN
HOLD TOGETHER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS.
MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1000 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.UPDATE...THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA AND RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE NEXT SEVEN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED OVER THE DELTA
REGION THIS EVENING THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN
LIGHTER WINDS. STILL...WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER 20S AND TEENS
FOR NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
DELTA. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER AND LIGHTER NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/
SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES WILL EXIST AT
SITES WHERE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
EVENING...AND VFR STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE WINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED THE ARKLAMISS LATE LAST
NIGHT AND MUCH OF TODAY IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS HAVE
ENDED. THERE ARE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN THE PINEBELT REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED ABOVE FREEZING AND NO TRAVEL ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED THERE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER ICE/SLEET...WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT
ISSUES WITH REFREEZING FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AS DRY NORTHERLY WINDS HELP TO DRY OFF THE ROADS.
WHILE REFREEZING MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS NOT QUITE AS
BIG OF A CONCERN AS IT WAS EARLIER...ESPECIALLY ON THE WELL-TRAVELED
ROADS.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS OVER-DOING COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ICE COVER TONIGHT AND
THIS IS MAKING FOR A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DID NOT
WANT TO GO NEARLY AS LOW AS HRRR WHICH HAS SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DO BELIEVE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT NIGHTTIME
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HAVE CUT
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT NOT TOO MUCH AS
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF CIRRUS THAT DISRUPTS COOLING. /EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WE
GO INTO NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE TIME WE GET
TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 21 44 25 58 / 0 0 0 6
MERIDIAN 21 46 21 59 / 0 0 0 5
VICKSBURG 20 44 23 55 / 0 0 0 6
HATTIESBURG 24 51 25 63 / 0 0 0 7
NATCHEZ 21 44 24 58 / 0 0 0 8
GREENVILLE 18 38 23 51 / 0 0 0 4
GREENWOOD 17 41 21 54 / 0 0 0 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/19/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RFW
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH INDICATES NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR A HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND
FIRE ZONE 209. AFTER A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS...FORECAST TD/S WERE LOWER SLIGHTLY...IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING. THUS LOCALIZED
AREAS OF 15-20% RH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL
IN QUESTION HOWEVER AND WHEN USING A HYBRID BLEND OF THE HRRR 80M
WIND GUST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 25 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MINIMUM RH IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SO ALL IN ALL...TODAY
WE/RE ANTICIPATING NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT A RFW IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DRAWS DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM
ALOFT...BUT PEAK GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN AT 20KTS OR LESS.
THESE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE SETTING SUN. OTHERWISE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A 30KT INCREASE IN 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR AT KVTN...KANW...AND POSSIBLY KTIF NEAR DAWN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE
AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST
THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
902 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RFW
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH INDICATES NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR A HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND
FIRE ZONE 209. AFTER A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS...FORECAST TD/S WERE LOWER SLIGHTLY...IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING. THUS LOCALIZED
AREAS OF 15-20% RH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL
IN QUESTION HOWEVER AND WHEN USING A HYBRID BLEND OF THE HRRR 80M
WIND GUST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 25 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MINIMUM RH IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SO ALL IN ALL...TODAY
WE/RE ANTICIPATING NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT A RFW IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN100-120 CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE
AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST
THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
532 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN100-120 CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE
AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST
THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CIGS WILL BE
AROUND 25000 FT AGL WITH ANY CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AT 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...
RADAR APPEARS TO SHOW THE LAST OF ANY PRECIP IN A NARROW BAND AS IT
IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH IS
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING LOST AS THE 850MB IS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WANING. AFTER SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE AND
NORTHWARD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE REMAINING
MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WILL BE LOST BY 10PM. THE HRRR SOUNDINGS DO
STILL SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VIA THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS...AND
THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AIRCRAFT (AMDAR) SOUNDING AT KRDU JUST
BEFORE 900 PM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE WEAK AND SHALLOW BANDS STILL
DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL BE
GONE BY 11PM... SO THE MAIN PRECIP MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG WHERE TEMPS ARE
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIP HAS ENDED.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...THE
HRRR SHOWS RAPID CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
REMAINING MOISTURE BELOW 850MB IS SCOURED OUT. WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION AND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE GIVING UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN DELAYED SO
FAR...WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE A FEW
HOURS OF A DRYING WIND WILL NO DOUBT HELP...BLACK ICE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON SATURDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WARM
MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
WHICH WOULD ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING POPS
WOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AND
RIDING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WOULD
TAKE A HIT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCING IN SITU
DAMMING...AND HIGHS WILL STALL IN THE 50S... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER IF
THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ALLOWS FOR A MORE FAVORABLE DAMMING FEATURES
TO ALIGN.
CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF FURTHER IN THE WED AND THU PERIODS DUE TO
QUESTIONABLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1234 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR SOME VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE COMPLETELY
SHUTOFF FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD HAS CLEARED THE COAST WITH
ASOS/AWOS OBS INDICATING ONLY PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINING. WHILE THIS
WOULD NORMALLY MEAN THE EVENT IS OVER...THE 00Z WAS MOST EMPHATIC
THAT A SECOND WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE 300K
SURFACE OVERHEAD JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBTLE
BACKING OF THE 700-800 MB FLOW. THE GFS IS FLATTER WITH THIS
DEVELOPING WAVE WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON LAND. I HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE LATE-NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST...HOWEVER I
BELIEVE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD LAYER WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THICKENING TO 3500-4000 FEET DEPTH BENEATH
THE WARM CLOUD ALOFT...SLEET WOULD BE THE PREFERRED PRECIP TYPE
RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE MAIN DRIVER IN ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING RAIN WAS ALONG A CKI TO LBT LINE AND
THIS WAS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. RADAR SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD CREEPING SLOWLY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER
40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
30S. FACTOR IN A N WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IT
FEELS AS IF IT WERE IN THE 20S LATE THIS EVE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A SLOW...BUT STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH THE RAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...LASTLY ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR IS SHALLOW WITH N TO NE
WINDS THROUGH 4 KFT BEING TOPPED BY A DEEP AND STILL STRONG SW TO
WSW FLOW. THIS DOES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER LONGER INTO
THE NIGHT. WILL HANG ONTO THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
WILL THEN SHOW THE PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE AIR TEMPS DROP TO
32 DEGREES OR LOWER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE RELUCTANT TO PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THIS AREA IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA...THIS WILL COMPLICATE THINGS AS ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPS OF THE LAST TWO
DAYS...GROUND TEMPS TO INCLUDE ROADWAYS...AND EXPOSED SURFACES TO
INCLUDE BRIDGES...TREES...POWER LINES AND CARS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO REACH FREEZING BEFORE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THUS...ALTHOUGH INSTRUMENTS MAY REPORT SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...NO ICE ACCRUAL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WINTER WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A CERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AS A WINTRY TYPE.
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE COLUMN FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE LEFT IN THE COLUMN...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE. FOR THIS REASON HAVE CUT BACK POP TO SILENT FOR ALL BUT
THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...AND EVEN THERE ONLY A SCHC IS WARRANTED FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIP MAY BE A BIT OF IP/ZR
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ANY WINTRY PRECIP.
THEREAFTER...RAPID DRYING OCCURS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ENVELOP THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTN. EVEN WITH FULL MARCH SUN...TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL
RISE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 30S - A FULL 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL!
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY CAUSING CAA TO
WEAKEN...AND A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY COLUMN AND
WEEK WINDS SUPPORT STRONG LONGWAVE COOLING. GUIDANCE HAS COOLED A
BIT...AND WE MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT (20 AT WILMINGTON
AND 20 AT FLORENCE). CURRENT FORECASTS ARE JUST ABOVE THESE
NUMBERS...BUT AN EXCEEDINGLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
A WARMER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EVEN BENEATH THE
INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP
MINS MUCH WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE STILL
EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOWS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SPLIT
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES JOGS TO THE NORTH
WITH A WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. SURFACE
FEATURES INCLUDE A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY WITH A BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED OFFSHORE. THIS IS WHAT REMAINS OF OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATER TODAY. BEYOND THIS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCES. WITH THE WEAK
FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE
FORCING IS SLIGHTLY BETTER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED QUITE A
BIT BY THE MOISTURE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 45-50 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AT THE INLAND TERMINALS MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 09Z...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPO MVFR
CIG UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE N GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KT DECREASING TO NE AROUND 12 KT BY LATE MORNING.
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THE SAME TREND IN CIGS IS EXPECTED EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT LINGER JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
POTENTIALLY 12-14Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW ICE PELLETS AT KILM
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE N GUSTING TO 25-30KT DECEASING TO NE
AROUND 12 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCT BY AFTERNOON.
N WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY SURGE AND
THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS WILL PEAK IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 9 FT. SEAS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR
SHORE WATERS TO INCLUDE LONG BAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 10AM
FOR NORTH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 34 KTS. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE
THEREAFTER...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH FRIDAY...REMAINING
15-20 KTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CONTINUED STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 6 FT ALL OF FRIDAY...AND AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNING DROPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS...AND THEN OVER...THE WATERS ON SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION LATE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL STEADILY ON
SATURDAY...LEVELING OFF AT 1-2 FT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO MODEST WIND FIELDS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST
AND AN OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL DISPLAY SOME VARIATION BUT OVERALL A
RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD BE GOOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL START
OFF VERY LOW...1-2 FEET SUNDAY AND INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WINDS HOVER AROUND THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS. COULD EVEN SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
936 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLY LINGERING. WITH THAT...HAVE REMOVED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO BACKED
OFF ON CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FALLEN AT ANY OF
THE OBSERVING SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT
TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS
NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FALLEN AT ANY OF
THE OBSERVING SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT
TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS
NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1013 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUAL CLIMB EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...TO AND ABOVE NORMALS IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING SLOWLY AS WE MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5-15 MPH.
RAISED MINS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON PRECIP...WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS IN NE OH/NW PA WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN A MOIST BIAS IN
THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THESE ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS
7-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ON TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC
SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING BETTER AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
A LESS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SKIES STARTING OFF MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE ERIE IN
EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAMDNG. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT HOPING
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR PRIMARILY
SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN INVERSION AND MELTING SNOW COMBINATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SKIRT BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THESE DAILY WARM UPS WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND MELT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF THE SNOW OVER THE AREA...BUT AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS ICY AT TIMES. RIVERS
WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODEST RISE WITH THE INCREASED RUNOFF...WHICH
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LONG TERM MODELS.
FORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY SO THESE DIFFERENCES
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS AT
BEST. ON THURSDAY WITH THE NE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE LOCATIONS LIKE
KERI WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO OCCUR. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A
LOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS QUITE A
BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY. WILL STICK WITH THAT
SCENARIO FOR NOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT FOR THE FIRST 50S
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO GO
HIGHER EVENTUALLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. LINGERING PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW IS EAST OF ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW MORE PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH CEILINGS BKN035-BKN040
ELSEWHERE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT
EAST ON SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
LAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
WASHING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. THE SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT NOW BEING OBSERVED AND
FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODELS MAY KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FROM LOWS GETTING AS COLD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (ALONG WITH A LITTLE WIND)...SO HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FAR WEST
(EAST CENTRAL INDIANA/WEST CENTRAL OHIO) TO THE LOWER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NO PRECIP. MORE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS OUTLOOK COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ADVECTION. HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO
WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MID 40S ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH INITIAL SRN STREAM S/W LIFTING NE FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY TUESDAY. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING HOW FAR NORTH TO EXTEND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN
BAND. GFS HAS TRENDED A LTL FARTHER NORTH MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLN BUT LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW SHIFTED A LTL SE. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SE PORTION
OF ILN/S FA DURG DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WIG HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH.
IN REGION OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS
WED/THEW FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPR 50S SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF STATES INTO THE OHIO BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
KEEPING THE FCST COLLABORATED HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE OVER DONE
ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS. THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL.
THUS...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE A LITTLE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BACK FROM A NORTHWEST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUAL CLIMB EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...TO AND ABOVE NORMALS IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS.
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN A MOIST BIAS IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THESE ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 7-10 DEGREES
TOO LOW ON TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE
PERFORMING BETTER AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A LESS CLOUDY FORECAST
WITH SKIES STARTING OFF MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON POPS
FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE ERIE IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE
HRRR AND NAMDNG. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT HOPING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH AS
THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR PRIMARILY SNOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
THIS EVENING. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IF ANYTHING OUT WEST WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE
PREVAILING MOISTURE IN THE EAST WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW.
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE NOTABLE DRIER AIR ALOFT
IT IS UNLIKELY THE AREA WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN INVERSION AND MELTING SNOW COMBINATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SKIRT BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THESE DAILY WARM UPS WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND MELT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF THE SNOW OVER THE AREA...BUT AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS ICY AT TIMES. RIVERS
WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODEST RISE WITH THE INCREASED RUNOFF...WHICH
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LONG TERM MODELS.
FORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY SO THESE DIFFERENCES
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS AT
BEST. ON THURSDAY WITH THE NE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE LOCATIONS LIKE
KERI WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO OCCUR. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A
LOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS QUITE A
BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY. WILL STICK WITH THAT
SCENARIO FOR NOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT FOR THE FIRST 50S
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO GO
HIGHER EVENTUALLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. LINGERING PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW IS EAST OF ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW MORE PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH CEILINGS BKN035-BKN040
ELSEWHERE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT
EAST ON SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
LAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER AIR CHART SHOWS A WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AN ELONGATED
VORT MAX TRAVELING WITH THE FLOW. SURFACE MAP HAS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS. SKIES ARE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM MID CLOUDS FORMING IN LIMITED LIFT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RADAR ECHOES FROM THE MID CLOUDS ARE
NOT REACHING THE SURFACE THROUGH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...SKY COVER WILL DIMINISH IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING MOISTURE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE VORT MAX
MOVES EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH EARLY WILL SUBSIDE
LATER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
NO PRECIP. MORE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS OUTLOOK COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN A
REGIME OF WEAK ADVECTION. HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO
WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MID 40S ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH INITIAL SRN STREAM S/W LIFTING NE FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY TUESDAY. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING HOW FAR NORTH TO EXTEND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN
BAND. GFS HAS TRENDED A LTL FARTHER NORTH MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLN BUT LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW SHIFTED A LTL SE. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SE PORTION
OF ILN/S FA DURG DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WIG HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH.
IN REGION OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS
WED/THEW FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPR 50S SOUTH.
WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF STATES INTO THE OHIO BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
KEEPING THE FCST COLLABORATED HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE OVER DONE
ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS. THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL.
THUS...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE A LITTLE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BACK FROM A NORTHWEST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD
KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND WITH A DEEP SNOW
PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL RH
LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING IN WHICH THE
GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY
TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS
(KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND CURRENT SNOW COVER.
THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE
COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN MORE SO WITH SNOW
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL
SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL
PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES BEEN ON RISE IN SOME AREAS. BIG RANGE.
CXY AND LNS COLDER THAN THV FOR A CHANGE. AREAS WITH A
BREEZE ON THE RISE.
LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
NOTHING GOING ON AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME POTENTIAL.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE WAS DONE TO EDGE BACK THE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE.
LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES.
DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS.
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR LOOP AT 03Z SHOWS LGT SNOW ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PA...AS
ASSOC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVR S QUEBEC PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM
KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN
UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL MAY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT
RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD
PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING
RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT
KBFD AND ESP KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS
THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD
RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890.
IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES
WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES
SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES BEEN ON RISE IN SOME AREAS. BIG RANGE.
CXY AND LNS COLDER THAN THV FOR A CHANGE. AREAS WITH A
BREEZE ON THE RISE.
LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
NOTHING GOING ON AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME POTENTIAL.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE WAS DONE TO EDGE BACK THE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE.
LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES.
DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS.
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL BRING LGT SNOW
TO NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AT 00Z...COMBINED
WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AT KBFD WILL GIVE WAY
TO RAPID IMPROVEMENT ARND 01Z...AS LOW PRES LIFTS AWAY. FURTHER
EAST...A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KIPT APPEARS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-02Z.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY UPSLOPING ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD MVFR VIS
AT THE WORST.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM
KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN
UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT
RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD
PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING
RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT
KBFD AND ESP KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS
THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD
RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890.
IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES
WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES
SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE WAS DONE TO EDGE BACK THE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES.
DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS.
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL BRING LGT SNOW
TO NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AT 00Z...COMBINED
WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AT KBFD WILL GIVE WAY
TO RAPID IMPROVEMENT ARND 01Z...AS LOW PRES LIFTS AWAY. FURTHER
EAST...A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KIPT APPEARS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-02Z.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY UPSLOPING ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD MVFR VIS
AT THE WORST.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM
KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN
UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT
RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD
PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING
RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT
KBFD AND ESP KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS
THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD
RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890.
IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES
WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES
SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES.
DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL BRING LGT SNOW
TO NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AT 00Z...COMBINED
WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AT KBFD WILL GIVE WAY
TO RAPID IMPROVEMENT ARND 01Z...AS LOW PRES LIFTS AWAY. FURTHER
EAST...A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KIPT APPEARS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-02Z.
HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY UPSLOPING ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD MVFR VIS
AT THE WORST.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM
KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN
UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT
RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD
PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING
RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT
KBFD AND ESP KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS
THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD
RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890.
IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES
WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES
SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD AND MID/HIGH CLOUD HAS CLEARED THE
COAST. SMALL PATCH OF STRATOCU STILL EVIDENT OVER EASTERN WARREN
AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH.
DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10
BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER.
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW
AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
121 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD AND MID/HIGH CLOUD HAS CLEARED THE
COAST. SMALL PATCH OF STRATOCU STILL EVIDENT OVER EASTERN WARREN
AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH.
DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10
BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER.
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW
AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME...WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE EARLY ON.
THESE WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT IN KBFD WHERE A SMALL STRATOCU DECK WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR.
VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1138 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 03Z...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE STATE. BACK EDGE OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR LANCASTER CO BY 05Z...AND PATCH OF
STRATOCU OVR WARREN/MCKEAN COS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z...AS
INVERSION HGTS FALL.
DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10
BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER.
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW
AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME...WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE EARLY ON.
THESE WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT IN KBFD WHERE A SMALL STRATOCU DECK WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR.
VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST RUC..HRRR AND RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE ANTICIPATED PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS A RESULT
OF THAT AND LACK OF ANY REPORTS IN UPSTREAM OBS OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND SO FAR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 30S...40S AND 50S
THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO CWA TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES AND
SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. LOW LEVEL
WAA /SURFACE TO 900HPA/ AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH FOR P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. BUT...IF
THERE IS AN AREA OF THE CWA THAT STANDS A CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OR SNOW...IT`S ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM MOBRIDGE TO FAULKTON TO MILLER. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE
BEING ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CONFIDENCE OF
SEEING MIXED P-TYPES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES OR
SPECIAL STATEMENTS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH DOSE OF
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD END UP PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
RADIATION FOG TOWARD MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH JET OF SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP. CONTINUED WARMING CONDITIONS EACH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL FOLLOWING AIRMASS MODERATION APPROACH AND
NO NEW COLD SURGES NOTED IN 12Z MODELS. SOMETHING TO KEEP A FIRE
WEATHER EYE ON...THOUGH...WILL BE RH VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS EACH
OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRY LOW LEVELS AND
WARM TEMPS BROUGHT RH`S DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR A BRIEF
TIME ON FRIDAY. SUSPECT THAT SOMETHING SIMILAR WILL END UP
HAPPENING ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. OFFICES
CONTINUE A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH IS WARMER THAN SUPERBLEND. THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE CURRENT LACK OF SOIL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WARM DRY CONDITIONS MAY RAISE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
NO UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING PRECIP THOUGH THERE ARE SOME RETURNS
ON RADAR. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF KABR AND
KATY SO ADJUSTED TAFS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO KEPT CIGS AND VSBY VFR AS
ANY RAIN OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
955 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM PREDAWN HOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST AREA ENJOYING AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. LINGERING RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS STILL HAVE A LOCK ON A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DECENT AMOUNT OF FORCING
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STRONGEST
MID LAYER PV-ADVECTION FORCED LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A BAND OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. MODELS STILL
VACILLATING WITH QPF PLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. EITHER WAY...THE SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO A TRACE TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER
20S.
ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN INTO THE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE GENERAL WARM
SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW WARM/DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE PLAINS INTO OUR AREA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S ON TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE MODELS TRY TO BUILD A
SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WOULD DRAW SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM CANADA. THIS IN TURN WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SOME...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. PLAN ON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 40 TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY...COOLING INTO THE 40S ON
SATURDAY.
OF COURSE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES COMES MELTING OF SNOW AND THE
NEED TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS IA SUN MORNING.
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS AND QG CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WILL
LEAD THE FEATURE IN...WITH GOOD SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AIDING IN
THE UPWARD MOTION. THE BULK OF ALL THIS LIFT THOUGH IS ACROSS
IA...WHERE RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS ALSO PLACE THE DEEPEST
SATURATION. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. AS FOR
KRST/KLSE...THINK FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY...AND NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
CIGS COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS STILL POINT
TO AN INCREASE IN LOW SATURATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z. RAP HAS STARTED TO BACKOFF
THOUGH...WITH THE HRRR ALSO KEEPING ANY LOW CIGS TO THE SOUTH OR FAR
NORTH. SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST
SATELLITE/SFC OBS...BUT TRAJECTORIES WOULD LIKELY KEEP THESE NORTH
OF KRST/KLSE. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY...GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
FOR NOW. UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED IF MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE LIKELY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP SOME WEAK QG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7/5C/KM. RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
SUMMIT COUNTY REFLECT THIS INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INCLUDING SUMMIT
COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THERE. WL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT SOME SMALL POTENTIAL OF THIS AS
WELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DENVER EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12Z. MAIN
PRESSURE RISES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. SFC
WINDS NNWLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH SOME BRIEF SCT LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ON MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. CAN`T RULE OUT
THAT A FEW LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG MONDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED ST MOST...WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5F ON
MONDAY.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
A PACIFIC WAVE SHEARING INTO TWO WITH ONE PIECE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND PART OF IT DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO MEXICO. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE
WETTER AND COOLER HAS A SECOND WAVE PASSING THROUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT FORMS. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR THIS. IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF IT...LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A HIGH OVER LOW
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH THE LOW OVER
MEXICO. FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FRONT TO THE
NORTH TO DENVER SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING AROUND
12Z. NNWLY WINDS FOLLOWING FROPA. COULD SEE A BRIEF BKN MID CLOUD
DECK THIS MORNING...BUT PROSPECTS OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK ARE NOT
LOOKING TOO GOOD AT THIS POINT. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO ESELY
BY THIS AFTN...THEN BACK TO A SLY DRAINAGE THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT
STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING
WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A
LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH
THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT
THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS
TEMPS WARM.
SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON
THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE
GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
340 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS
EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG
COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED
ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD.
KMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT IN THE MORNING. A WEAK
WAVE WILL ALSO PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHERN MN PUSHING EAST. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS THE FEATURE
WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL AND THINKING THE SPRINKLES
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS. IF THE SPRINKLES
DO REACH THE TERMINALS...LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE
ADDED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS...BUT ALSO HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFF CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY
LAST. WINDS TURN SSW THIS AFTN AND THEN VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL
LINGER IF THEY DO.
* VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
340 AM CDT
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL
REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF
WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND
TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast
Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave
currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on
water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is
producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface
observations.
Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic
ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However,
the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and
the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is
progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the
local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due
to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry
system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some
areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely
to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through
Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond
that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow
pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb
temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps
rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through
Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip
chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12
hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north,
but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have
started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them
again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit
overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and
underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing.
Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences
btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the
ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low
moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through
and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half
of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting
the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops
into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal
solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a
result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
High pressure building into Illinois from the north will keep
winds light and variable the rest of the night. Light fog could
develop due to boundary layer moisture from melting today.
However, the HRRR continues to keep any dense fog north of our TAF
sites, and no observations in and around our forecast area are
showing even a hint of vis reduction below 10sm. Will keep fog out
of this set of TAFs.
Clouds will increase from the northwest after sunrise as a
shortwave moves across N IL. We could see a few sprinkles reach
the ground near Peoria and possibly Bloomington Sunday afternoon,
but no measurable precip is expected due to dry air in the sub-
cloud layer. Cloud bases should remain VFR through the day at all
our TAF sites. Mid- high clouds will push north into IL tomorrow
as a frontal boundary stalls out just south of our counties.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...911 PM CST
NO REAL BIG CHANGES THIS EVENING...AS QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TEMP AND SKY TRENDS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS TEMPS SLOWLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 20S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...
307 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT....
COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS IT DOES SO. THERE ISNT A STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT....AS WELL AS A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ENABLE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
CHICAGO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN AND NEAR
DOWNTOWN.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON HANDLING A BAND OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON SUNDAY...STRONGEST AT 700 MB. THERE WAS BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY IN POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT ALSO IN WEAKENING THE FGEN AS IT MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...DID REINTRODUCE POPS...BUT KEPT THEM IN
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MENTIONED OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN GRIDS. CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAVORED. MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THEN WASHOUT...WITH BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-80...AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LET TEMPERATURES DIP INTO
THE 20S. A FEW UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY.
MONDAY...
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OFF THE
EXISTING SNOW COVER. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY
OVERALL. PROGGED 850/925 MB TEMPERATURE CLIMO ON MONDAY SUPPORTS
LOW-MID 40S FOR HIGHS...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
335 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANTICIPATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO REALIZE WARMING FROM MILD MID TO HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AIR MASS AT 850 AND 925 MB TO BE
REALIZED...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AIR MASS
WILL BE AS WARM OR WARM ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...A
BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR OUR MOST POPULOUS AREA...INCLUDING
CHICAGO...WILL BE THE FRIGID WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WAS HOPING
THAT THE CONSISTENT IDEA SHOWN BY THE GFS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY WOULD NOT PAN OUT...BUT NOW AM MORE
CONCERNED...AS 12Z ECMWF JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...WITH BETTER SUPPORT FOR
ONSHORE FLOW ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES LAKESIDE WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S...IF NOT 60S IN SPOTS. GUIDANCE SPED UP ARRIVAL
OF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE
WEEK...SO NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF CWA. AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE QUITE MILD...SO NO PTYPE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. ONSHORE
FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.
RC
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT IN THE MORNING. A WEAK
WAVE WILL ALSO PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS AN
AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHERN MN PUSHING EAST. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS THE FEATURE
WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL AND THINKING THE SPRINKLES
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS. IF THE SPRINKLES
DO REACH THE TERMINALS...LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE
ADDED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS...BUT ALSO HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFF CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY
LAST. WINDS TURN SSW THIS AFTN AND THEN VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL
LINGER IF THEY DO.
* VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
205 PM CST
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE LAKE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN THE
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN
CONUS...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT
AGAIN BEFORE BACKING TO SWLY AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW
CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD JAMES BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY SWLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SWLY-NWLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SHOULD HELP BREAK UP ICE COVERAGE OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...OPENING UP THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BY MIDWEEK...A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP ELY-SELY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM
MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1139 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A cold front will drop south through Illinois tonight. High
pressure immediately behind the front will cause winds to shift
from west to N-NW and become light. Somewhat drier air will begin
to arrive behind the front as well. However, the 00z model
guidance and latest HRRR update all show a narrow ribbon of
moisture at the ground level overnight. Dewpoint depressions have
dipped to 4-6F already in several areas, with overnight lows
projected to drop 10-14 degrees below current readings. HRRR
visibility projections had steadily improved with each hourly
update this afternoon and early evening, with no dense fog in our
counties overnight. The last update introduced some 5 mile fog,
with dense fog just north of Galesburg to Lacon. Will continue
with no mention of fog in the grids/forecast due to no sites
showing any hint of vis restrictions even with small dewpoint
depressions.
The only clouds of note overnight will be some cirrus in the
southern stream flows into our counties south of I-70, and some
mid clouds in the northern stream reaching our NW counties toward
sunrise. Only adjustments this evening were minor changes in
clouds and hourly temp trends. Overall forecast in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
20z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold extending from southern
Lake Michigan to far northern Missouri. Ahead of the boundary, W/SW
winds and abundant sunshine have resulted in temperatures rising
well into the 40s across central and southeast Illinois. In fact,
readings have reached the lower to middle 50s from Bloomington and
Lincoln westward to the Mississippi River where most of the snow
cover has melted. The cold front will sweep through the area this
evening, turning the winds to the W/NW but bringing in only a
slightly cooler airmass. Overnight low temperatures will generally
be in the middle to upper 20s. Some high-res models such as the
HRRR continue to suggest fog development tonight: however, given
slightly drier air advecting in from the west and no signs of
visibility obstruction this afternoon, think this is overdone and
will not be including fog in the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
Short-wave trough evident on 20z/2pm water vapor imagery over
southern Saskatchewan will track southeastward and skirt across
northern Illinois on Sunday. Mid/high clouds will be on the
increase ahead of this feature late tonight, with mostly cloudy
conditions expected across the northern half of the KILX CWA on
Sunday. While the wave will be weakening with time, most models try
to squeeze out some light QPF, mainly further north toward the I-80
corridor. Forecast soundings remain quite dry below 850mb, so do
not think any measurable precip will occur. Have included a chance
for sprinkles north of the Peoria area in closer proximity to the
vort max track. Further south, partly to mostly cloudy but dry
conditions will prevail. Due to the cloud cover and a light SE
flow, temperatures will be held down a bit, with readings in the
lower to middle 40s.
High pressure will take control of the weather on Monday, leading to
sunny skies and slightly warmer temps in the middle to upper 40s.
As the high moves off to the east, a southern stream wave will
approach from the southwest. 12z Mar 7 models are in fairly good
agreement that this feature will brush the SE CWA late Monday night
into Tuesday. GEM is the most bullish with precip spreading further
N/NW, but think this is too aggressive based on dry low-level
profiles. Will increase cloud cover across the E/SE Monday night
into Tuesday and mention a slight chance for rain south of I-70.
Elsewhere around the area, partial sunshine and light southerly
flow will boost highs into the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday.
After a warm/dry day on Wednesday with highs well into the 50s
across the board, yet another southern stream storm system will
approach from the south later in the week. Models do not have a
good handle on this feature yet, with the latest ECMWF spreading
rain into central Illinois as early as Thursday afternoon while
the GFS holds off until Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, the
GEM is completely dry through Friday, as it keeps the system
further southeast across the Ohio River Valley. Given the model
discrepancies, made very few changes to the current forecast. Will
maintain warm/dry weather through Thursday, then will introduce
PoPs Thursday night and Friday. Best rain chances appear to be
along/east of I-55, but will keep them in the chance category
until better model agreement is achieved.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
High pressure building into Illinois from the north will keep
winds light and variable the rest of the night. Light fog could
develop due to boundary layer moisture from melting today.
However, the HRRR continues to keep any dense fog north of our TAF
sites, and no observations in and around our forecast area are
showing even a hint of vis reduction below 10sm. Will keep fog out
of this set of TAFs.
Clouds will increase from the northwest after sunrise as a
shortwave moves across N IL. We could see a few sprinkles reach
the ground near Peoria and possibly Bloomington Sunday afternoon,
but no measurable precip is expected due to dry air in the sub-
cloud layer. Cloud bases should remain VFR through the day at all
our TAF sites. Mid- high clouds will push north into IL tomorrow
as a frontal boundary stalls out just south of our counties.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
319 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVING
FAST THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND NW WI. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIND-MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS REMAINING
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
ZONAL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS/WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN
INTO MID-LATE WEEK WITH THE POSITION OF A SURFACE HIGH/LOW AND HOW
QUICK THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
THE PERIOD WILL ALSO FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS MOST SYSTEMS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER FORTIES TO NEAR
FIFTY...THEN COOL SOME ON SATURDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AN OFF LAKE
WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND
THE LAKE COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND
WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 22 44 31 / 40 0 0 10
INL 34 20 44 27 / 20 10 0 10
BRD 37 21 48 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 37 22 46 30 / 30 0 0 0
ASX 39 23 46 32 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1200 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
UPDATED FOR NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING ARE THE MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER IN THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT ROLLED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE WAVE...HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE RISEN AND
ALLOWED FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO DEVELOP AND END THE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD. THERE ARE STILL VERY WEAK ECHOES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY DUE TO THE LINGER
EFFECTS OF THE S/W AND A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WEAK
CAA ALOFT AND A DECENT NWLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE.
THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE AND PRECEDING CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER N-CENTRAL MN
TONIGHT AND SPREAD E/SEWD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH TRAILING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI INTO LATE SUN MORNING. THE OVERALL FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH MODEST WAA
AND A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL FGEN HELPING THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW. THE HIGHER AMTS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA TO PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS SOME WEAK FEATURES MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM STAYING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SHIFT SOUTH TO BRING SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE NORTH. A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SKIMMING ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SMALL POPS GOING FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS A DECENT SLUG OF WARM AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AND
HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENT. IN
FACT...IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME SNOW COVER GOING INTO THIS EVENT THAT
WOULD KEEP SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES DOWN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
A ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE REACHING INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 50 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SNOWPACK MAY TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT HIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN
THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE EAST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING COLD LAKE AIR INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AND COOLING THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND
WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 18 38 22 44 / 40 30 0 0
INL 14 34 20 44 / 60 20 10 0
BRD 20 38 22 48 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 18 37 21 45 / 30 30 0 0
ASX 20 39 23 46 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
RAP SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NE MT EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WAS GENERATING A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER
THE REGION. ECHOES WERE VERY LIGHT...SO AT MOST THEY WERE
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL
DRY OUT UNDER NW FLOW TODAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIXING WILL BE CLOSE TO 700 MB
TODAY BASED ON RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
RECENT TEMPERATURES WELL. WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NW FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
NW FLOW TO CONTINUE MON AND MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY SO NO
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. UNDER A MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WILL
BE TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV AND MET FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDING TRENDS. RESULT
WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS ALOFT WERE
STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 30S. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...AS 500-MB RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE ONLY ONE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY WARM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
NOT ONLY DOES THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
FROPA TIMING LOOKS LIKE IT MAY SEE FROM PREFRONTAL WARMING AS
WELL. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THAT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVED SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GET A
GOOD READ ON THAT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COMPLETION OF FROPA...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BEING THE POST
FRONTAL TRANSITION DAY BUT...SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
COLD...AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
AREAS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIPS EASTWARD...OPENING THE DOOR TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT
POTENTIAL. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 034/065 036/068 040/071 044/067 039/062 036/067
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
LVM 057 032/060 036/064 041/070 045/063 038/061 035/063
0/U 00/N 00/N 01/B 13/W 21/B 11/B
HDN 062 031/067 033/071 036/072 039/068 038/065 033/069
0/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
MLS 059 031/062 033/067 036/069 040/065 036/060 032/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/U
4BQ 058 029/061 031/067 034/073 038/066 036/061 030/064
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
BHK 056 028/059 030/064 033/069 037/063 033/056 028/060
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
SHR 057 028/061 029/065 034/072 038/065 036/063 030/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOW SLIDING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
LOOKING AHEAD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RISING MOTION LEADING TO SCT CLOUDS SUNDAY
AND SCT/BKN CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A DRY/MILDER FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLY LINGERING. WITH THAT...HAVE REMOVED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO BACKED
OFF ON CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FALLEN AT ANY OF
THE OBSERVING SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT
TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS
NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015
SKY CONDITION WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR TO SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500FT AND
7000FT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR KBIS/KJMS. WEST WINDS AVERAGING 10KT
SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUAL CLIMB EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...TO AND ABOVE NORMALS IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING SLOWLY AS WE MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5-15 MPH.
RAISED MINS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON PRECIP...WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS IN NE OH/NW PA WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW LOW
CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN A MOIST BIAS IN
THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THESE ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS
7-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ON TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC
SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING BETTER AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
A LESS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SKIES STARTING OFF MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE ERIE IN
EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAMDNG. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT HOPING
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR PRIMARILY
SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN INVERSION AND MELTING SNOW COMBINATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SKIRT BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THESE DAILY WARM UPS WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND MELT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF THE SNOW OVER THE AREA...BUT AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS ICY AT TIMES. RIVERS
WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODEST RISE WITH THE INCREASED RUNOFF...WHICH
COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LONG TERM MODELS.
FORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY SO THESE DIFFERENCES
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS AT
BEST. ON THURSDAY WITH THE NE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE LOCATIONS LIKE
KERI WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO OCCUR. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A
LOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS QUITE A
BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY. WILL STICK WITH THAT
SCENARIO FOR NOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT FOR THE FIRST 50S
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO GO
HIGHER EVENTUALLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. LINGERING PRECIP
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF MVFR SNOW SHOWER AROUND KERI BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN
MOST AREAS WITH CEILINGS BKN035-BKN045 FOR A WHILE THROUGH EARLY/MID
MORNING SUNDAY. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LOWER CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING BUT THERE DOES NOT SEEM MUCH CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
LAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1133 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST RUC..HRRR AND RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE ANTICIPATED PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT AS A RESULT
OF THAT AND LACK OF ANY REPORTS IN UPSTREAM OBS OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND SO FAR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 30S...40S AND 50S
THROUGHOUT THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO CWA TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES AND
SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. LOW LEVEL
WAA /SURFACE TO 900HPA/ AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH FOR P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. BUT...IF
THERE IS AN AREA OF THE CWA THAT STANDS A CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OR SNOW...IT`S ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM MOBRIDGE TO FAULKTON TO MILLER. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE
BEING ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CONFIDENCE OF
SEEING MIXED P-TYPES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES OR
SPECIAL STATEMENTS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH DOSE OF
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD END UP PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
RADIATION FOG TOWARD MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH JET OF SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP. CONTINUED WARMING CONDITIONS EACH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL FOLLOWING AIRMASS MODERATION APPROACH AND
NO NEW COLD SURGES NOTED IN 12Z MODELS. SOMETHING TO KEEP A FIRE
WEATHER EYE ON...THOUGH...WILL BE RH VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS EACH
OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRY LOW LEVELS AND
WARM TEMPS BROUGHT RH`S DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR A BRIEF
TIME ON FRIDAY. SUSPECT THAT SOMETHING SIMILAR WILL END UP
HAPPENING ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. OFFICES
CONTINUE A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH IS WARMER THAN SUPERBLEND. THE ECMWF
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THERMAL
PROFILES...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE CURRENT LACK OF SOIL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WARM DRY CONDITIONS MAY RAISE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION...MAINLY AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY BEFORE EXITING AROUND
10Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS CLOUD DECKS LOWER AND RAINFALL INCREASES.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST
RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL
IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE
SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT
THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH.
ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING.
MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO
15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE
IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME
DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS
WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS IA SUN MORNING.
DECENT THERMODYNAMICS AND QG CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WILL
LEAD THE FEATURE IN...WITH GOOD SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AIDING IN
THE UPWARD MOTION. THE BULK OF ALL THIS LIFT THOUGH IS ACROSS
IA...WHERE RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS ALSO PLACE THE DEEPEST
SATURATION. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. AS FOR
KRST/KLSE...THINK FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY...AND NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
CIGS COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS STILL POINT
TO AN INCREASE IN LOW SATURATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z. RAP HAS STARTED TO BACKOFF
THOUGH...WITH THE HRRR ALSO KEEPING ANY LOW CIGS TO THE SOUTH OR FAR
NORTH. SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST
SATELLITE/SFC OBS...BUT TRAJECTORIES WOULD LIKELY KEEP THESE NORTH
OF KRST/KLSE. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY...GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
FOR NOW. UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED IF MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE LIKELY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY-MONDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOWS CONVERGENT
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS OUT OF MEXICO...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDE WITHIN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW IS STAYING
TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY ZONAL...THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE RIDGED IN NATURE AS ONE COMES
DOWN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY BY 650/700/800MB. THE 08/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THIS RIDGING WITH A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 800MB. THE SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES WITH IN
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE JUST BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
AT THE SURFACE...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE SC/GA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
OUR POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS
FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE DAY IN
STORE TO END OUT THE WEEKEND. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER VERY SOUTH FLORIDA...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
MOVEMENT (PERHAPS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT) OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN OVER
THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...AND FEEL IT WILL BE
OVER THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTIES THAT HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS ESPECIALLY
HINTS AT SUFFICIENT LIFT ARRIVING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
(HIGHLANDS/LEE) TO SUPPORT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES BY THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NILL. ELSEWHERE...FOR THE REMAINING 90% OF THE AREA...THE
FORECAST IS DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IN FACT...IT WILL
LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING UP
TOWARD LEVY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH
MIDDLE 70S FAR NORTH...UPPER 70S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF A SEA-BREEZE. WINDS
MAY SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AT THE COAST AND OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE FAIL TO SHIFT THE
FLOW ONSHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW IN THE
975-900MB LAYER. THE KTBW SOUNDING HAD WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS JUST 1000
FEET AGL. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
EVEN 10-15 KNOTS IS USUALLY ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY REAL SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION IN CHECK.
TONIGHT...
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA. SO...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY STRENGTHEN BUT
BECOME DEEPER IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS WE SEE PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC
RIDGING APPEARING AS HIGH AS 500-400MB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DEEPER
SUPPRESSION SHOULD HELP THE FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ALOFT FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...AND ARE GENERALLY QUITE DRY ABOVE 700MB.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN
THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET OR SO. AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD...
THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE SURFACE FOCUS...WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE
295-300K SURFACES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NEARSHORE
WINDS...APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SCT
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS BASED ON THE OVERLAPPING
OF FEATURES WOULD EXIST FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. THIS
AREA IS WHERE THE CHANCE RANGE POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
SITUATION WITH ONLY A LIMITED IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE
LIMITED DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIGHT...WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WILL CERTAINLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDINESS...WILL ALSO EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...AND IT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BOOST THE TEMPS FAST. CURRENT MOS
READINGS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 80
OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS...AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IF A FEEBLE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING UNDER A SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK. THESE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS.
WIND WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DECK OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW MOVES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
LOOKS TO REENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 63 80 66 / 0 0 30 10
FMY 82 65 83 66 / 10 20 30 0
GIF 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 30 10
SRQ 80 63 80 65 / 0 0 30 10
BKV 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 10
SPG 78 65 79 68 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
AVIATION...WYNN
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1011 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the
northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping
southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the
northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is
mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the
precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of
counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation
north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for
now.
Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures.
There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now
cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and
reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising
temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to
Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast
Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave
currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on
water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is
producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface
observations.
Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic
ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However,
the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and
the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is
progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the
local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due
to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry
system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some
areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely
to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through
Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond
that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow
pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb
temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps
rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through
Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip
chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12
hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north,
but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have
started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them
again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit
overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and
underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing.
Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences
btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the
ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low
moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through
and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half
of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting
the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops
into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal
solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a
result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time.
Upper level disturbances will produce periods of VFR cigs, but do
not expect any precipitation to reach the ground. A weak pressure
pattern through the period will produce light/variable winds;
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT ACROSS
THE ARRWOHEAD AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NW WI. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
MOVE ACROSS NW WI SO THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVING
FAST THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND NW WI. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIND-MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS REMAINING
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING
ZONAL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS/WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN
INTO MID-LATE WEEK WITH THE POSITION OF A SURFACE HIGH/LOW AND HOW
QUICK THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF.
THE PERIOD WILL ALSO FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS MOST SYSTEMS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER FORTIES TO NEAR
FIFTY...THEN COOL SOME ON SATURDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AN OFF LAKE
WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND
THE LAKE COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND
WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 22 44 31 / 20 0 0 10
INL 34 20 44 27 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 37 21 48 31 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 37 22 46 30 / 20 0 0 0
ASX 39 23 46 32 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
SUNSHINE AS THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ALOFT THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKER TODAY ALONG WITH
WINDS ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE QUITE AS BREEZY. SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX TO AROUND 800MB TODAY AND MIXING WINDS WERE
WESTERLY...SO DO ANTICIPATE HIGHS NEAR 60. GETTING A COOLER START
TO THE DAY TODAY AND THIS GIVES A LITTLE PAUSE THAT HIGHS MAY NOT
QUITE BE AS WARM AS FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO COOL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HAS MY BIAS...SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST HIGHS IN PLACE. HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG MIXING WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. DID LOWER VALUES TO GET TO AROUUND 20 PERCENT
OVER CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT FALL AS LOW AS THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO WEAKER MIXING AND WINDS. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
RAP SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NE MT EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WAS GENERATING A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER
THE REGION. ECHOES WERE VERY LIGHT...SO AT MOST THEY WERE
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL
DRY OUT UNDER NW FLOW TODAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIXING WILL BE CLOSE TO 700 MB
TODAY BASED ON RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
RECENT TEMPERATURES WELL. WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NW FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
NW FLOW TO CONTINUE MON AND MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY SO NO
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. UNDER A MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WILL
BE TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV AND MET FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDING TRENDS. RESULT
WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS ALOFT WERE
STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 30S. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...AS 500-MB RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE ONLY ONE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY WARM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
NOT ONLY DOES THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
FROPA TIMING LOOKS LIKE IT MAY SEE FROM PREFRONTAL WARMING AS
WELL. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THAT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVED SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GET A
GOOD READ ON THAT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COMPLETION OF FROPA...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BEING THE POST
FRONTAL TRANSITION DAY BUT...SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEARS VERY
COLD...AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S IN MOST
AREAS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS. SOUTHWEST FLOWE SETS UP
OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SLIPS EASTWARD...OPENING THE DOOR TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT
STILL TOO FAR OUT PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT POTENTIAL. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 034/065 036/068 040/071 044/067 039/062 036/067
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
LVM 057 032/060 036/064 041/070 045/063 038/061 035/063
0/U 00/N 00/N 01/B 13/W 21/B 11/B
HDN 062 031/067 033/071 036/072 039/068 038/065 033/069
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
MLS 059 031/062 033/067 036/069 040/065 036/060 032/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/U
4BQ 058 029/061 031/067 034/073 038/066 036/061 030/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
BHK 056 028/059 030/064 033/069 037/063 033/056 028/060
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U
SHR 057 028/061 029/065 034/072 038/065 036/063 030/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
607 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD
BE EVEN LOWER AT MEM...JBR AND MKL...AFTER 03Z MONDAY BUT DO NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
709 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST
RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL
IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE
SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT
THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH.
ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING.
MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO
15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE
IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME
DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS
WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THROUGH 08.14Z...AND THEN A 6 TO 10K DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 08.16Z. SKIES WILL THEN BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
BY 08.15Z...AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 09.09Z. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MOSQUITO RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AM. INITIALLY...THE
AIRMASS SEEMS FAIRLY DRY. THERE IS A SWATH OF MID/HI LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO RIGHT NOW BUT LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN
WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY AND EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE IN PARK COUNTY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS SATURATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
QUESTION IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH? FOR NOW WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. WILL REASSESS THIS
FOR AFTERNOON IN CASE HILITES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP SOME WEAK QG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7/5C/KM. RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
SUMMIT COUNTY REFLECT THIS INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INCLUDING SUMMIT
COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THERE. WL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT SOME SMALL POTENTIAL OF THIS AS
WELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DENVER EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN PRESSURE
RISES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS
NNWLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH SOME BRIEF SCT LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ON MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. CAN`T RULE
OUT THAT A FEW LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG MONDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED ST MOST...WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5F
ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
A PACIFIC WAVE SHEARING INTO TWO WITH ONE PIECE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND PART OF IT DIGS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO MEXICO. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE
WETTER AND COOLER HAS A SECOND WAVE PASSING THROUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT FORMS. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR THIS. IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF IT...LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A HIGH OVER LOW
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH THE LOW OVER
MEXICO. FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
VERY LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS (REST OF TODAY)...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOWS CONVERGENT
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS OUT OF MEXICO...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDE WITHIN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW IS STAYING
TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY ZONAL...THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE RIDGED IN NATURE AS ONE COMES
DOWN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY BY 650/700/800MB. THE 08/12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THIS RIDGING WITH A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 800MB. THE SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES WITH IN
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE JUST BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
AT THE SURFACE...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE SC/GA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
OUR POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS
FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE DAY IN
STORE TO END OUT THE WEEKEND. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER VERY SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS/NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN OVER THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...AND STILL FEEL IT WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTIES THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BKN CUMULUS FIELD HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. WILL PATTERN OF MOSTLY SUNNY
NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S NORTH...UPPER 70S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE DID END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF
A SEA-BREEZE...ESPECIALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE NATURE
COAST...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY FIND WINDS
TURNING LOCALLY ONSHORE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA. SO...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY STRENGTHEN BUT
BECOME DEEPER IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS WE SEE PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC
RIDGING APPEARING AS HIGH AS 500-400MB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DEEPER
SUPPRESSION SHOULD HELP THE FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ALOFT FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...AND ARE GENERALLY QUITE DRY ABOVE 700MB.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN
THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET OR SO. AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD...
THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE SURFACE FOCUS...WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE
295-300K SURFACES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NEARSHORE
WINDS...APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS BASED ON THE
OVERLAPPING OF FEATURES WOULD EXIST FROM AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE CHANCE RANGE POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM AROUND 30% TO 40-50% FOR THIS
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. BASED ON ALL THE GUIDANCE...THIS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCE MAY STILL BE A BIT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AND THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE MAY VERY WELL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE BUMPED UP INTO
THE "LIKELY" RANGE...THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SITUATION WITH ONLY A
LIMITED IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT...WITH LOW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED A QUARTER INCH. WHILE THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL
CERTAINLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDINESS...WILL ALSO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH
SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BOOST THE TEMPS FAST. CURRENT MOS READINGS
ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK...SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 80 OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN AREAS...AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IF A FEEBLE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
TUE-THU; AN UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO SLIDES WEST TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS FL RESULTING IN A WARM AND
SOMEWHAT STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
BETWEEN LATITUDES 30 AND 40 NORTH...RE-LOCATES DOWN TO LATITUDE 30
WHILE RIDGING IN ACROSS FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO . THIS
PROVIDES A RELAXED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
PROVIDE SOME SEA FOG TUE-WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
FRI-SUN; THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EASES EASTWARD...STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIPS EAST AS IT FLATTENS AS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING IN
ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC...REINFORCING THE HIGH ALONG LATITUDE 30 WHICH
CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS FL TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UP
THROUGH SAT THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. BUT
THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUN...THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON
OVER THE AREA...AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BRUSHES OVER THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE FL/GA/AL BORDER.
THE GFS SLOWS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENS IT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY SAGS IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS EACH DAY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE WED LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO SEE A BKN CU
DECK FROM KPGD SOUTHWARD TO KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER BASES HAVE RAISED
ABOVE VFR LEVELS AND EXPECT THIS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE 4-6KFT FOOT RANGE.
SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW
LATE AT NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS...BUT RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHT AND SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG ISSUES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW MOVES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
LOOKS TO ENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 63 80 66 / 0 0 30 10
FMY 82 65 83 66 / 10 20 30 0
GIF 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 30 10
SRQ 80 63 80 65 / 0 0 30 10
BKV 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 10
SPG 78 65 79 68 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
127 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND THE ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS IS BECOMING
MORE BROKEN IN APPEARANCE AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE. LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAINFALL CAN BE FOUND IN THE UPPER KEYS AND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CAN
BE SEEN NORTH OF SUGARLOAF. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE MORNING SHOWERS AND
CLOUDINESS HAS HELD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
KEYS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE
LOWER 80S. WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 15 TO 20 IN THE UPPER KEYS ALONG
THE DISSIPATING SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS.
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SUCH THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED IF THAT.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS
NEAR 15 KNOTS...BUT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE WINDS MAY STAY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLIER PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY HIGH THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL HOLD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE COASTALS
FORECAST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE CWA. DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND
LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY DISRUPT THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
DROP WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 16 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 73 82 75 82 / - 10 10 10
MARATHON 73 84 75 85 / - 10 10 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
604 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the
remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures
from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid
40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite
imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead,
but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72
corridor.
The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog,
with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal
boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and
this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high
pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of
the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight,
as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing
widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model
have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern
flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson),
with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR
solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off
the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200
feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy
fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after
midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more
widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
High pressure area will slowly move across the region through
tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north
into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern
part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern
extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface
ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models
seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The
GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so
will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of
the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue
through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and
continuing through Wed night.
By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading
pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently,
all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period.
GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this
pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and
blend.
Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to
around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the
week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Will continue with VFR conditions this evening. Some concern
remains for fog development after midnight as surface temps cool
toward the dewpoints. Forecast soundings and visibility
projections in the HRRR and RAP show potential for some patchy
dense fog across our southern terminals. The NAM blankets the
entire area with dense fog. Will continue with MVFR vis for DEC
and CMI later tonight, with a tempo MVFR vis at SPI.
Winds this evening will weaken as high pressure settles over
northern Illinois and N Indiana. A southeast wind will develop
Monday morning, but speeds should remain at or below 10kt during
the day.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
154 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID-
LVL CLOUDS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS HAS CREATED A SLIGHT THERMAL
DIFFERENTIAL OF COOLER TEMPS UNDERNEATH...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. MEANWHILE EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FEW POCKETS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER DEW POINTS
WERE REMAINING IN THE MID 20S..WHICH WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE PRECIP
AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN ANY OF
THE PRECIP STILL FALLING WILL BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. GUIDANCE
ALL INDICATES THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTING EAST LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ERODING MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
WITH MID-LVL FLOW SEMI-ZONAL AND SFC RIDGING SLIDING EAST...TEMPS
MON SHUD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 40S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. 950MB GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...HOWEVER LATER IN
THE WEEK THIS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT.
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUE...WITH A SFC WAVE BEING REFLECTED
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHUD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
CWFA WITH AN EXPECTED DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING A WELCOME THERMAL RIDGE OF 5 TO 7
DEG C AT 850MB TUE. THIS SHUD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY WARM INTO
THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 50S. SFC RIDGING APPEARS TO BE
STRETCHED...WITH A SECOND FOCUS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WOULD INDICATE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWEST TUE NGT. LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
154 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. SFC RIDGING WILL BE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN IL
WED MIDDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD MARINE AIR TO BLEED INLAND FROM A LAKE
BREEZE...AND LOCK AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE UPR 30S FOR
HIGHS WED. FURTHER INLAND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS HOLDING
ARND 5 TO 7 DEG C WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE A FEW UPR 50S TO 60
DEGREE READINGS WED AFTN.
THUR THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN MEMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SPREAD STEADILY RAMPS UP. THUR/FRI TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE LONGER TERM...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO BEEN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENN
VALLEY THUR AFTN. PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO BE EXPANSIVE...AND COULD
REACH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA THUR EVE. TEMPS SHUD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO LIMIT P-TYPE AS LGT RAIN...HOWEVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
COULD SEE A LGT RA/SN MIX THUR NGT. PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS OVERHEAD
FRI AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST FRI NGT/EARLY SAT. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS IN
THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.
BEACHLER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DROPPED
CONDITIONS TO MFVR OR IFR IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS BUT THE MORE
ACTIVE BANDS STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE ORD AND MDW TERMINALS AS
ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING IN MILDER
AIR AND TURN ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION INTO ALL LIQUID...IF
ANYTHING IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
ALREADY LIGHT WINDS MAY GO VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH.
SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
135 PM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES EAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.9 INCHES
EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE LAKES AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
253 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the
remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures
from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid
40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite
imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead,
but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72
corridor.
The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog,
with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal
boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and
this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high
pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of
the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight,
as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing
widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model
have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern
flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson),
with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR
solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off
the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200
feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy
fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after
midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more
widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
High pressure area will slowly move across the region through
tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north
into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern
part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern
extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface
ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models
seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The
GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so
will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of
the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue
through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and
continuing through Wed night.
By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading
pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently,
all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period.
GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this
pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and
blend.
Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to
around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the
week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR conditions to prevail across central Illinois into at least
early evening. Main concern is with the moisture from melting snow
in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, and any fog potential. Winds this
evening are expected to weaken some as an area of high pressure
settles over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Latest RAP
guidance keeps any dense fog threat further south for now near a
weak frontal boundary, but current depth is 2-4 inches near KDEC
and KCMI, so plenty of moisture is being released. Have added
prevailing MVFR visibilities for some light fog overnight at these
sites, and TEMPO conditions at KSPI where the snow cover is
thinner.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT
STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING
WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A
LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH
THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT
THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS
TEMPS WARM.
SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON
THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE
GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
340 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS
EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG
COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED
ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD.
KMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PATCHY SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY BRIEFLY...AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DROPPED
CONDITIONS TO MFVR OR IFR IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS BUT THE MORE
ACTIVE BANDS STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE ORD AND MDW TERMINALS AS
ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING IN MILDER
AIR AND TURN ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION INTO ALL LIQUID...IF
ANYTHING IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
ALREADY LIGHT WINDS MAY GO VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH.
SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
340 AM CDT
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL
REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF
WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND
TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the
northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping
southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the
northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is
mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the
precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of
counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation
north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for
now.
Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures.
There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now
cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and
reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising
temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to
Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast
Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave
currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on
water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is
producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface
observations.
Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic
ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However,
the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and
the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is
progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the
local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due
to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry
system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some
areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely
to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through
Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond
that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow
pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb
temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps
rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through
Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip
chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12
hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north,
but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have
started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them
again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit
overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and
underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing.
Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences
btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the
ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low
moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through
and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half
of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting
the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops
into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal
solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a
result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR conditions to prevail across central Illinois into at least
early evening. Main concern is with the moisture from melting snow
in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, and any fog potential. Winds this
evening are expected to weaken some as an area of high pressure
settles over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Latest RAP
guidance keeps any dense fog threat further south for now near a
weak frontal boundary, but current depth is 2-4 inches near KDEC
and KCMI, so plenty of moisture is being released. Have added
prevailing MVFR visibilities for some light fog overnight at these
sites, and TEMPO conditions at KSPI where the snow cover is
thinner.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1123 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
328 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT
STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING
LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING
WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A
LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH
THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT
THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS
TEMPS WARM.
SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON
THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE
GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY.
MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
340 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS
EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG
COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED
ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD.
KMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE PRODUCING
PATCHES OF MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR BUT THESE APPEAR TO
BE STAYING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH MDW MIGHT BE CLIPPED
AND BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE LOWER CONDITIONS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A BAND OF MID LEVEL PRECIP IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST IL THROUGH NW IA. ONLY A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING
RAIN OR SNOW SO STILL THINKING THE TERMINALS WILL MISS OUT ON THE
PRECIP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FORCING FOR THE BAND DIMINISHES AS
IT SINKS SOUTH. GYY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR -RA. MVFR
CIGS APPEAR VERY CLOSELY TIED TO WHERE PRECIP IS REACHING THE SFC
SO ONLY HAVE MVFR CIGS AT GYY. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR VERY LONG.
WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN..AND THEN VEER BACK TO WEST
THIS EVENING. CIGS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT MDW MISSES THE SNOW AND STAYS VFR.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ORD MISSES THE SNOW AND STAYS VFR.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH.
SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
340 AM CDT
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL
REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF
WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND
TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1011 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the
northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping
southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the
northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is
mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the
precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of
counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation
north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for
now.
Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures.
There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now
cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and
reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising
temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to
Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast
Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave
currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on
water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is
producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface
observations.
Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic
ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However,
the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and
the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is
progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the
local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due
to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry
system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some
areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely
to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through
Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond
that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow
pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb
temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps
rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through
Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip
chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12
hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north,
but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have
started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them
again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit
overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and
underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing.
Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences
btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the
ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low
moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through
and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half
of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting
the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops
into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal
solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a
result.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time.
Upper level disturbances will produce periods of VFR cigs, but do
not expect any precipitation to reach the ground. A weak pressure
pattern through the period will produce light/variable winds;
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. MID DECK REMAINS PRETTY SCATTERED
RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
REPORTING SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT ALSO CHARACTERIZE THIS AS A PERIOD WHERE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW. AS A
RESULT...HAVE SEEN NO REASON TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THE WAVE BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER SUGGEST
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH TO
I-80. UPSTREAM WHERE A FEW OBS IN IL/IA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SNOW
SHOWERS...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
TIED WITH THOSE RADAR RETURNS/REPORTS. WITH THE HI RES MODELS
MAINTAINING THIS WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA...OPTED TO
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS TO WHETHER WHAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW OR LIQUID AS MODEL
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT...SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY KEPT ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO ACCUMULATE.
INSTEAD...WITH LIFT BEING RATHER WEAK...WHAT DOES FALL MAY BE MORE
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SURFACE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO
TODAYS HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY QUIESCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA...CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY.
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MINOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES...THE SIMILARITIES ARE LARGER THAN THE
DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...AND ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A WET
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO GENERATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL TOWARD THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEAL WITH
THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ITS EVOLUTION. CURVATURE DIFFERENCES AS
WELL AS JET BACKBUILDING LOOK TO BE THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...AND BOTH WILL AFFECT HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE SYSTEM
FOR TUESDAY DECIDES TO ADVECT...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. ALLOWED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE POP SPREAD DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER WHERE THEY AGREE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONE...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DEEP ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY VARY FROM +2 TO +5C. ADDITIONALLY...COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST NIL...SO NO UPSLOPE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY
EVEN AS IT PULLS AWAY.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE NET
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SURPASS 50 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE
A...GASP!...ABOVE NORMAL DAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING
RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE
REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH
CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES.
WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS
RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED
MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF
WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING
MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THE WAVE BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER SUGGEST
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH TO
I-80. UPSTREAM WHERE A FEW OBS IN IL/IA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SNOW
SHOWERS...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
TIED WITH THOSE RADAR RETURNS/REPORTS. WITH THE HI RES MODELS
MAINTAINING THIS WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA...OPTED TO
CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. QUESTION
REMAINS TO WHETHER WHAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW OR LIQUID AS MODEL
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT...SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY KEPT ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO ACCUMULATE.
INSTEAD...WITH LIFT BEING RATHER WEAK...WHAT DOES FALL MAY BE MORE
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SURFACE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION RATHER WEAK
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO
TODAYS HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY QUIESCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA...CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY.
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MINOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES...THE SIMILARITIES ARE LARGER THAN THE
DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...AND ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A WET
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO GENERATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL TOWARD THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEAL WITH
THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ITS EVOLUTION. CURVATURE DIFFERENCES AS
WELL AS JET BACKBUILDING LOOK TO BE THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...AND BOTH WILL AFFECT HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE SYSTEM
FOR TUESDAY DECIDES TO ADVECT...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. ALLOWED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE POP SPREAD DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL
DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER WHERE THEY AGREE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONE...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DEEP ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY VARY FROM +2 TO +5C. ADDITIONALLY...COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST NIL...SO NO UPSLOPE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY
EVEN AS IT PULLS AWAY.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE NET
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SURPASS 50 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE
A...GASP!...ABOVE NORMAL DAY. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING
RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE
REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH
CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES.
WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS
RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED
MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF
WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING
MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES MADE TO EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MID-HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM LOOK TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD
SLOW WARMING BY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
ABOVE 40 DO NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MAY ALSO BRING THE SUPPORT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT BEING RATHER MEAGER...WILL
KEEP THE POPS RATHER LOW.
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
TUESDAY IS COMING IN AS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF MY FORECAST AREA DO STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE TO SEE
SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TUESDAY.
A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING
RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE
REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH
CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES.
WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS
RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED
MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF
WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING
MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOW COVER. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO LOW
BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN
HELPED OUT BY MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. ONE OF THE WORST
PERFORMERS BY FAR HAS BEEN THE GFS RAW SFC TEMPS WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THE SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND THE
HI RES ARW HAVE SHOWN THE BEST SKILL AND THE GFS MOS HAS DONE BETTER
THAN THE RAW GFS DATA.
WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS... WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/WARM PROD AIMED
INTO SRN LWR MI ON TUESDAY. AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMP FCST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY... HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE OF
THE LAST TWO DAYS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S ON MONDAY AND NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES NORTH OF HOLLAND
MUCH COLDER.
IN THE NEAR TERM... THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA NORTH OF I-96 THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEPART
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE BE SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WHERE SNOW
MELT FROM TODAY HAS REFROZE. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW
CLOUD/FOG FORMATION LATE AT NIGHT THE NEXT COULD NIGHTS AS THE NAM
SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 950 MB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION STREAMING UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...A HEALTHIER LOOKING
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT STAYS TO OUR NOTHEAST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. GENERALLY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK
MOSTLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS. MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY LATE
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IS MEDIUM AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE
FOR CIGS BELOW 2K FEET WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...MKG,
GRR, AND LAN. MVFR CIGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z OR SO.
FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS STAY UP AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO
FAVORED STRATUS IN TAFS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER SOUTH...MVFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE I-94 TAFS AFTER 03Z...BUT KEPT THIS OUT
OF THE TAFS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY
FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM
MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW
STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL.
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND
MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES
OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING WOULD ONLY BECOMES A CONCERN
IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WSR88D IS SHOWING THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE SEGMENT IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY WELL.
THIS PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE COMPARES NICELY TO THE THE 06
UTC RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF AND 16 UTC HRRR RUN. THE SEAS BREEZE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE EAST FACING
BEACHES...BUT THE SOUTH FACING BEACH SEGMENT IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
WILL PROPAGATE APPROXIMATELY 20 TO 25 MILES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES APPEAR TO HAVE TOPPED
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE SUNRISE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. NO THREAT OF FOG IS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 15 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A
WESTERLY FLOW TO A BUILDING RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE BOARD
TUESDAY AS THE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CWA
GETS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AS THE WEAK ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE AND WEST WITH SUBTLE AND LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WARM AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE
WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE BOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF A WEAKLY
FORCED NATURE ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. A LETHARGIC AND
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BASICALLY STALLS AND WEAKENS AS
A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WEAK PERIODS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON POPS IS LOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO
THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE I HAVE
JOGGED THE HIGHEST POPS TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY VALUES RESIDE PRIMARILY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED WARMING
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE TO MATCH
ADJACENT OFFICES BETTER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
BECOMING BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP. MONDAY
MORNING...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ONLY
MID-CLOUD CEILINGS ARE THE WORST CASE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY FOG AT
BAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL MVFR WITH RAINFALL TUE AND WED WITH
PERIODS OF IFR TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS THURSDAY
WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THU AND FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 2 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
MONDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACQUIRES MORE DEFINITION LATER
IN THE DAY. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH A GOOD SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MONDAY. FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WINDS TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND TEN KNOTS.
THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NEAR BERMUDA WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET MONDAY
INCREASING TO 1-3 FEET LATER TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES
ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL COMMENCE AND WIND
SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. BENIGN SEAS WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD
CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY TO POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT VALUES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
UPDATE...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER
THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. RAIN SHOULD PUSH INTO MEMPHIS BY 5-6 PM.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE. WILL ONLY UPDATE TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND OTHER
LOCATIONS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND NOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE THIS AREA TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS
APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
BY THIS EVENING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO
TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN.
MVFR CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER
WHICH MORE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.UPDATE...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER
THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. RAIN SHOULD PUSH INTO MEMPHIS BY 5-6 PM.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE. WILL ONLY UPDATE TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND OTHER
LOCATIONS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND NOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE THIS AREA TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/
EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS
APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS
A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...
INTO SOUTHWEST TN.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD
BE EVEN LOWER AT MEM...JBR AND MKL...AFTER 03Z MONDAY BUT DO NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR.
TVT
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST
RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL
IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE
SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT
THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH.
ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING.
MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO
15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE
IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME
DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS
WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS.
WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWMELT TODAY
ADDING MOISTURE TO THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
LIGHTER/CALM WINDS WILL RESIDE. HAVE ADDED SOME 5SM BR AT BOTH
KLSE/KRST TAF SITES FROM 09-14Z...BUT FEEL SOME LOCALLY DENSER FOG
MAY BE SEEN SOUTH OF THE SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS