Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/08/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
941 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE TURNING MORE SEASONABLE WITH A SHOT OF WET WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY MIDWEEK. CONTINUED SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO A POTENTIAL WET-WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 940 PM UPDATE... STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL BE CASE OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR ASIDE FROM SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL W/SW FLOW. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER UPSTATE NY SHOULD HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER BERKSHIRES. FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A STRUGGLE. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT HIGH RES MODELS INSIST ON CLEARING WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CORRECT BASED UPON SATELLITE. AS A RESULT GFS LAMP...GRIDDED LAMP AND RAP 2M TEMPERATURES SHOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS WHICH IS MUCH TOO COLD. KEEPING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. IN FACT THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED. INCREASING LLJ BEHIND THE FRONT MAY INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH...VERY SIMILAR TODAY...DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOW 40S AS HIGH TEMPS AND DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TOMORROW NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - MORE SEASONABLE PATTERN - THREATS OF RAIN MIDWEEK AND BY THE WEEKEND */ OVERVIEW... ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATIVE OF A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE BROADER PATTERN ALOFT TOWARDS THE E. SUBSEQUENT SIGNALS OF A WARMER PERHAPS WETTER PATTERN AS TROUGHING WEAKENS OVER THE NE-CONUS AS THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE BAD FOR OUR REGION. STRONGER SW-FLOW UP AGAINST WEAKER NW-WINDS COULD RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE OF OVER-RUNNING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. WARM-MOIST AIR OVER THE SNOWPACKED REGION...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL CONCERNS OF FLOODING AND ICING. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY INTO SPRING AS THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION HOLDS A LIQUID WATER CONTENT AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. A SLOW SNOW-MELT IS FAVORED OVER A FAST MELT COMBINED WITH RAIN. WITH THE LATER... WATERSHEDS ALONG WITH URBAN AREAS / BASEMENTS WOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. A 07.12Z GFS / REGIONAL CANADIAN BLEND WAS FAVORED THROUGH MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD. */ DAILY DISCUSSION... MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT... MOISTURE-DEPRIVED N-STREAM SYSTEM WILL USHER A SHOT OF COLD AIR AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. OTHERWISE DRY WITH BLUSTERY W-WINDS AS CLOUDS BREAK TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY. NEAR-SEASONABLE HIGHS...BUT A POSSIBLE CHILLY NIGHT WITH A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS. N-STREAM AND S-STREAM SYSTEM SLIP THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE TWO WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE AREA IN-BETWEEN OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-WEATHER WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT. LIMITED CONFIDENCE AS TO BOTH TIMING AND IMPACT BUT AGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER THAT THE CONFLUENT- FLOW OVER THE NE-CONUS SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW S. SO FAVOR BOTH THE 07.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN. OUTCOMES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GREATEST CONCERN IS ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF ANY WOULD BE GREATEST. ALONG WITH SNOW-MELT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF POOR- DRAINAGE FLOODING. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY... THE BROADER TROUGHING PATTERN SHIFTING SUBTLY E WE FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE W-PERIPHERY OF AIRMASSES. LOOKING DRY WITH COOLER WEATHER N/E WITH MILDER CONDITIONS S/W. WEEKEND... MORE ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING TOWARDS A WET PATTERN. ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF A MAINTAINED BERMUDA HIGH...S-STREAM IMPULSE SLIPS N ALONG WITH A GOOD SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE. APPEARING AS A GOOD OVER-RUNNING EVENT BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO GO ON SPECIFICS. TWO CONCERNS THOUGH: RAINFALL ACROSS THE DENSE SNOWPACK ADDING TO ROOF COLLAPSES / FLOODING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FROM THE RETREATING HIGH LENDING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICING PRIOR TO A FRONT-END THUMP OF SNOW. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST WITH LIGHT S/SW-WINDS. ISOLATED -SHSN OR FLURRIES. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO SUNDAY AS ACTIVITY CLEARS OUT AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE W WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH MORNING -SN MAINLY N OF MASS-PIKE. IMPROVING BY MIDDAY WITH BLUSTERY W-WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS WITH -RA MAINLY IMPACTING THE S-COAST. COULD GO LOWER TO LIFR AS WARMER AIR SURGES OVER THE COLD GROUND. THINKING WITH -RA SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH LOW FOG UNDER BREEZY S/SW-WINDS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY W/NW WINDS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 940 PM UPDATE... EXTENDED SCA FOR S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO SUBSIDE. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WIND GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 20KTS...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BLUSTERY W-WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO EVENING. COULD SEE WAVES BUILD UP TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RELAX BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR THE S-WATERS. BREEZY S/SW WINDS BUT BELOW 20 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. THE SURGE OF WARM-MOIST AIR N ACROSS THE COLDER WATERS IS LOOKING TO RESULT IN SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES THAT COULD BE DOWN BELOW HALF A MILE. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W/NW AND BECOME BLUSTERY. WILL SEE WAVES BUILD ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1239 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STRONG MARCH SUN WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY. HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP AROUND 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOW INFORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT 00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW WITH PAC ORIGINS. IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS SPEEDS THEN INCREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY...VFR. .SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN. .SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE DECREASED BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY AS A RESULT. LOCALIZED SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MID DAY. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB- ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW INFORMATION FOR THIS MORNING FOLLOWS. STATION LOW TEMP OLD RECORD EWR 12 12/2007 (TIED) BDR 9 11/2007 (BROKEN) NYC 12 6/1872 (NO RECORD) LGA 15 14/2007 (NO RECORD) JFK 13 13/2007 (TIED) ISP 12 12/2007 (TIED) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GS NEAR TERM...GS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BC MARINE...GS HYDROLOGY...GS CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
957 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATED RECORD LOW INFORMATION. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT 00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW WITH PAC ORIGINS. IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY EVE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY...VFR. .SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN NORTH OF THE CITY. .SUNDAY THROUGH-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE DECREASED BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY AS A RESULT. LOCALIZED SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MID DAY. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB- ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW INFORMATION FOR THIS MORNING FOLLOWS. STATION LOW TEMP OLD RECORD EWR 12 12/2007 (TIED) BDR 9 11/2007 (BROKEN) NYC 12 6/1872 (NO RECORD) LGA 15 14/2007 (NO RECORD) JFK 13 13/2007 (TIED) ISP 12 12/2007 (TIED) && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL OCCUR TODAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON. IT HAD BEEN DELAYED DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GS NEAR TERM...GS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BC MARINE...GS HYDROLOGY...GS CLIMATE...GS EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
642 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S. NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT 00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW WITH PAC ORIGINS. IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY EVE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY...VFR. .SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN NORTH OF THE CITY. .SUNDAY THROUGH-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6 EWR......12/2007 BDR......11/2007 NYC.......6/1872 LGA......14/2007 JFK......13/2007 ISP......12/2007 && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S. NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT 00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW WITH PAC ORIGINS. IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY EVE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6 EWR......12/2007 BDR......11/2007 NYC.......6/1872 LGA......14/2007 JFK......13/2007 ISP......12/2007 && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
629 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM UPDATE... SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS SNE EXCEPT FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS CAPE COD. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPE AND ACK. RAP HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM OUT TO SEA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN LOW TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WE ALSO CHECKED RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH LOOK TO BE OUT OF REACH...ESPECIALLY BOSTON! BOSTON...9 IN 1872 /LOW THAT DAY WAS -8/ PROVIDENCE...22 IN 2007 HARTFORD...19 IN 2007 WORCESTER...16 IN 2007 && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP SNOWPACK SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS. IT PROBABLY WON/T BE AS COLD AS IT IS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATER IN DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK * PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR OVERVIEW... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS. HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH COULD COME CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED AS GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY... COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020 NEAR OUTER CAPE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING N WINDS TODAY AND MORE OF W/SW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS APPROACH SCA LATER SAT AFTERNOON ON S COASTAL WATERS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SAT NIGHT...SCA WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/JWD MARINE...KJC/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S. NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT 00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW WITH PAC ORIGINS. IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY EVE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6 EWR......12/2007 BDR......11/2007 NYC.......6/1872 LGA......14/2007 JFK......13/2007 ISP......12/2007 && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 240 AM UPDATE... CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AS BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS N-S OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD BANDS E OF CAPE COD...BUT WITH DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. RAP HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON TIMING AND SHOWS THESE OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS BACKING ONTO CAPE COD THIS MORNING...BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THEM OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A VERY COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR TO TEENS AT COAST...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN LOW TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WE ALSO CHECKED RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH LOOK TO BE OUT OF REACH...ESPECIALLY BOSTON! BOSTON...9 IN 1872 /LOW THAT DAY WAS -8/ PROVIDENCE...22 IN 2007 HARTFORD...19 IN 2007 WORCESTER...16 IN 2007 && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP SNOWPACK SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS. IT PROBABLY WON/T BE AS COLD AS IT IS THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT AS WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATER IN DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK * PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR OVERVIEW... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS. HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH CLOUD COME CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED AS GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY... COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020 NEAR OUTER CAPE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING N WINDS TODAY AND MORE OF W/SW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS APPROACH SCA LATER SAT AFTERNOON ON S COASTAL WATERS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SAT NIGHT...SCA WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING. SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/JWD MARINE...KJC/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .LATE MORNING UPDATE... /ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ATLANTA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THESE BANDS ARE QUICKLY ERODING... AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LARGE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO SHOW AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT AND SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH... AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SOUTH. /39 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ UPDATE... GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN. LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. 11 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUAL ERODING OF MVFR AND LOW MID CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE... WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING BY 19-20Z TODAY FOR AHN AND ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES... AND A BIT LATER FOR CSG AND MCN. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY NW AROUND 3-6KTS THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN BACKING MORE WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0 ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0 MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0 ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0 VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .LATE MORNING UPDATE... LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ATLANTA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THESE BANDS ARE QUICKLY ERODING... AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LARGE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO SHOW AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT AND SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH... AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SOUTH. /39 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ UPDATE... GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN. LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. 11 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED AT 627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ 12Z UPDATE... BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0 ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0 MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0 ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0 VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ UPDATE... GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN. LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. 11 && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0 ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0 MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0 ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0 VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .UPDATE... GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN. LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. 11 AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0 ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0 MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0 ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0 VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH AND IS MARKED BY A FINE LINE ON KCLX 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY 4 AM BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. RAIN IS QUICKLY ENDING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. H3R AND RAP WET-BULB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKELEY COUNTY AFTER 4 AM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -FZDZ IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST. WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF -DZ. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED. TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140. SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352- 354. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330. && $$ ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
905 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SHORT TERM... 307 PM CST THROUGH MONDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. TONIGHT.... COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS IT DOES SO. THERE ISNT A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT....AS WELL AS A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN AND NEAR DOWNTOWN. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON HANDLING A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON SUNDAY...STRONGEST AT 700 MB. THERE WAS BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT ALSO IN WEAKENING THE FGEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...DID REINTRODUCE POPS...BUT KEPT THEM IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MENTIONED OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN GRIDS. CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAVORED. MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THEN WASHOUT...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LET TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S. A FEW UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. MONDAY... THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OFF THE EXISTING SNOW COVER. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY OVERALL. PROGGED 850/925 MB TEMPERATURE CLIMO ON MONDAY SUPPORTS LOW-MID 40S FOR HIGHS...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. RC && .LONG TERM... 335 PM CST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ANTICIPATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO REALIZE WARMING FROM MILD MID TO HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AIR MASS AT 850 AND 925 MB TO BE REALIZED...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AIRMASS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARM ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...A BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR OUR MOST POPULOUS AREA...INCLUDING CHICAGO...WILL BE THE FRIGID WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WAS HOPING THAT THE CONSISTENT IDEA SHOWN BY THE GFS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY WOULD NOT PAN OUT...BUT NOW AM MORE CONCERNED...AS 12Z ECMWF JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...WITH BETTER SUPPORT FOR ONSHORE FLOW ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES LAKESIDE WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND WARM WELL INTO THE 50S...IF NOT 60S IN SPOTS. GUIDANCE SPED UP ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...SO NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF CWA. AIR MASS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD...SO NO PTYPE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. RC && .HYDROLOGY... DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * WEST WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. * SOME HAZE/MIST MAY REDUCE VSBY LATE TONIGHT. * CIGS LOWER LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. MDB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING WEST WINDS IN PLACE BEFORE THEY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME VSBY REDUCTION IN HAZE/MIST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING LATE. THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION ANY VSBY REDUCTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING LOWERING CIGS DURING THE MORNING WITH LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MVFR POTENTIAL BUT AT THIS POINT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING/MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY EVENING WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER. MDB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTION LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR AND LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SOME MVFR MAY OCCASIONALLY OCCUR. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. MDB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MDB && .MARINE... 205 PM CST A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AGAIN BEFORE BACKING TO SWLY AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD JAMES BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY SWLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SWLY-NWLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD HELP BREAK UP ICE COVERAGE OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...OPENING UP THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BY MIDWEEK...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP ELY-SELY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 902 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A cold front will drop south through Illinois tonight. High pressure immediately behind the front will cause winds to shift from west to N-NW and become light. Somewhat drier air will begin to arrive behind the front as well. However, the 00z model guidance and latest HRRR update all show a narrow ribbon of moisture at the ground level overnight. Dewpoint depressions have dipped to 4-6F already in several areas, with overnight lows projected to drop 10-14 degrees below current readings. HRRR visibility projections had steadily improved with each hourly update this afternoon and early evening, with no dense fog in our counties overnight. The last update introduced some 5 mile fog, with dense fog just north of Galesburg to Lacon. Will continue with no mention of fog in the grids/forecast due to no sites showing any hint of vis restrictions even with small dewpoint depressions. The only clouds of note overnight will be some cirrus in the southern stream flows into our counties south of I-70, and some mid clouds in the northern stream reaching our NW counties toward sunrise. Only adjustments this evening were minor changes in clouds and hourly temp trends. Overall forecast in good shape. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 20z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold extending from southern Lake Michigan to far northern Missouri. Ahead of the boundary, W/SW winds and abundant sunshine have resulted in temperatures rising well into the 40s across central and southeast Illinois. In fact, readings have reached the lower to middle 50s from Bloomington and Lincoln westward to the Mississippi River where most of the snow cover has melted. The cold front will sweep through the area this evening, turning the winds to the W/NW but bringing in only a slightly cooler airmass. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the middle to upper 20s. Some high-res models such as the HRRR continue to suggest fog development tonight: however, given slightly drier air advecting in from the west and no signs of visibility obstruction this afternoon, think this is overdone and will not be including fog in the forecast. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 Short-wave trough evident on 20z/2pm water vapor imagery over southern Saskatchewan will track southeastward and skirt across northern Illinois on Sunday. Mid/high clouds will be on the increase ahead of this feature late tonight, with mostly cloudy conditions expected across the northern half of the KILX CWA on Sunday. While the wave will be weakening with time, most models try to squeeze out some light QPF, mainly further north toward the I-80 corridor. Forecast soundings remain quite dry below 850mb, so do not think any measurable precip will occur. Have included a chance for sprinkles north of the Peoria area in closer proximity to the vort max track. Further south, partly to mostly cloudy but dry conditions will prevail. Due to the cloud cover and a light SE flow, temperatures will be held down a bit, with readings in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will take control of the weather on Monday, leading to sunny skies and slightly warmer temps in the middle to upper 40s. As the high moves off to the east, a southern stream wave will approach from the southwest. 12z Mar 7 models are in fairly good agreement that this feature will brush the SE CWA late Monday night into Tuesday. GEM is the most bullish with precip spreading further N/NW, but think this is too aggressive based on dry low-level profiles. Will increase cloud cover across the E/SE Monday night into Tuesday and mention a slight chance for rain south of I-70. Elsewhere around the area, partial sunshine and light southerly flow will boost highs into the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday. After a warm/dry day on Wednesday with highs well into the 50s across the board, yet another southern stream storm system will approach from the south later in the week. Models do not have a good handle on this feature yet, with the latest ECMWF spreading rain into central Illinois as early as Thursday afternoon while the GFS holds off until Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, the GEM is completely dry through Friday, as it keeps the system further southeast across the Ohio River Valley. Given the model discrepancies, made very few changes to the current forecast. Will maintain warm/dry weather through Thursday, then will introduce PoPs Thursday night and Friday. Best rain chances appear to be along/east of I-55, but will keep them in the chance category until better model agreement is achieved. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A weak high pressure ridge will build over the area tonight, bringing light/variable wind and clear skies. An upper level disturbance passing to the north on Sunday will increase mid level clouds during the morning, and as the high shifts to the southeast, light southeast flow will develop during the afternoon. Some isolated visibility reduction may occur late tonight through sunrise, but due to low confidence will leave out and monitor for later forecasts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
153 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY. TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 SATURDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY... FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST THRU THE ROCKIES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE LEVEL BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MAIN WX FEATURE WITH A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH AIDS IN INCREASING TEMPS WITH STRONG WAA ON SW FLOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD W/ TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS INVERTED RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO AREA AS TROUGH PASSES. OVERALL SOME LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE IN UPSLOPE REGION AS REGION UNDER EASTERLY FETCH. FOR AREA TEMPS THOUGH...925MB NUMBERS WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +15C OVER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHS...AND +17C TO NEAR +21C FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CAA WITH SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA HIGH TEMPS 5-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR SUN-MON...AND 60S TO NEAR 70S(WED) FOR REST OF TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO START UP TO THE MID 30S BY END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DRY AND CALM WEATHER. AN OCCASIONAL GUST CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT AT KGLD LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR. CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7 WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C. MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3- 5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW. IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH AND EXPAND EASTWARD...CAUSING THE ERN TROF TO LIFT NE AND DIMINISH IN AMPLITUDE. THESE CHANGES WILL CAUSE ARCTIC AIR TO RETEAT AND WILL ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO MAKE INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR UPPER MI...THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE AREA...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCES PASSING N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE CHANGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...CONTINUING THE DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. IN FACT...EXCLUDING SUN...MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN NEXT WEEK. FARTHER DOWN THE LINE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY BLO NORMAL (MORE OF THE GEM ENSEMBLES OUT AT DAY 16 ARE SHOWING REBUILDING OF A FAR WRN NAMERICE RIDGE). PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE. BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUN...2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY SAT NIGHT...850MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14C MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT NW FLOW LES. AS WINDS BACK WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND APPROACH OF LOW PRES TROF...THE LIGHT LES WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF TO THE SW IN SRN MN/NRN IA...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FARTHER N MAY SPREAD SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. AFTER ANY LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES END SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE... 850MB TEMPS OF -11/-12C SHOULDN`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY LIGHT LES SUN EVENING. RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO WARMING FOR MON/TUE. PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -11C MON MORNING TO RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH BETTER MOISTENING INDICATED TO THE N AND E OF HERE... CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. SO...ONLY EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS WON`T DOMINATE EITHER DAY. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON-TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AT SOME POINT MON/TUE. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL TOP 50F EITHER DAY...BUT MORE LIKELY OVER THE SCNTRL ON TUE. BIGGEST MODEL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY IS FOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO BE QUICKER...AND THUS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS THRU UPPER MI SOONER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS YESTERDAY. WILL BE A TREND TO MONITOR THAT MAY AFFECT TUE TEMPS. FOR NOW...THIS MEANS A COOLER WED IS NOW EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING NOSES SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...RESULTING IN THE ADDITIVE CHILL OF LIGHT LOW- LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI. TIGHT 850MB TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR (10C DIFFERENCE FROM SW UPPER MI TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SUPPORT A DECENT SFC TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WED WHILE LWR 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE N AND E. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO MAY GENERATE PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES WITHIN THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT...BUT AT THIS POINT... POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. ALTHOUGH WAA GETS UNDERWAY AGAIN THU...IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL OF COLUMN MOISTENING IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR DEEPER INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR TO THE N OF UPPER MI. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THU. 12Z GFS CONTINUES ALONG THE LINES OF SOME PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING WHAT WOULD LIKELY END UP AS A MIXED PCPN EVENT FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. UNTIL OTHER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...WILL HOLD OFF FROM INCLUDING AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. VSBY MAY DROP TO IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR. CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7 WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C. MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3- 5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW. IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 532 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE VERY PERSISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED WEATHER OVER ERN NAMERICA FOR MORE THAN A MONTH WILL BE WEAKENING AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH. THESE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR UPPER MI...THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR THRU THE WEEKEND...AND THEN NEXT WEEK... DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SRN CANADA IN THE MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW. AS FOR PCPN...DESPITE THE CHANGING PATTERN WEATHER STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BEGINNING SAT...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH SCNTRL CANADA WILL REACH THE UPPER LAKES SAT MORNING. MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 280-285K SFCS (700-850MB) WHICH SHOULD YIELD A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN AT MOST LOCATIONS. MIXING RATIOS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ARE 2G/KG BUT THE PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHORT-LIVED...AND MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO MOISTENING THE DRY LOW-LEVELS ALREADY IN PLACE. SO...EXPECT MAYBE 3HRS OR SO OF STEADIER -SN SAT MORNING IN THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE/BEST HEIGHT FALLS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS SAT MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES AND A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -14C BEHIND SHORTWAVE ON SAT...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT LES OFF THE OPEN SPOTS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER FOR THE NW SNOWBELTS. SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...TWO MORE SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. INITIALLY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WX SAT NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE AXIS/WSHFT TO THE SW THAT WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING LIGHT LES OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE SAT NIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF TO THE SW IN SRN MN/SW WI WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DUE TO ARRIVE SUN AFTN...ASSOC SHSN MAY BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. 850MB TEMPS -10 TO -12C PROBABLY WON`T BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO GENERATE MUCH IF ANY LES SUN EVENING IN A WESTERLY FLOW. RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DOMINATING MON THRU THU AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO THE N OF THE UPPER LAKES. PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -10C MON MORNING TO RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING...BUT THEN TEMPS WL FALL TO -2C NORTH TO 2C SOUTH BY WED MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE THAN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI BY EARLY MARCH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON THRU WED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S BY TUE WITH THE WARMEST DAYS TUE AND WED. GIVEN EXPECTED PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT THE N TO BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WED THAN TUE WHILE THE S SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS TEMPS. IF TUE OR WED ENDS UP MOSTLY SUNNY...COULD SEE SOME LOW 50S TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. SFC HIGH PRES DROPPING TO THE NE AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON THU IN AN ERLY FLOW... ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. VSBY MAY DROP TO IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES HEADING FOR THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NRN MOST ONE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...WITH THE SRN ONE WORKING THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE NRN WAVE IS ON ITS WAY TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW HEADING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SRN WAVE WILL HEAD FOR SW MN...BUT WILL HAVE NO SFC INFLECTION. INSTEAD...THIS SRN WAVE WILL HELP STOP THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS SRN MN AND HELP PUSH IT BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO RATHER BLEAK CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PROBLEM...AS THESE WAVES MOISTEN THE ATMO ABOVE 10K FT...BUT NOT MUCH BELOW THAT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN WAVE...WITH A QUICK HIT OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY GOING OVER NRN MN. EXISTING POPS HAD SOME SMALL POPS NORTH OF I-94 AND KEPT THOSE IN PLACE...JUST SPED THEM UP A TAD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE NMM AND ARW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP WE DO SEE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SLIP THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL LIKELY SEE A BANK OF STRATOCU WORK DOWN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS WE WORK INTO THE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS ONLY FALL BACK A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WE WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TODAY THOUGH WILL BE THE BREEZY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED CHANNEL WINDS OUT IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY UP AROUND 30 KTS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MILD AND QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY END UP BEING THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS TUE-FRI...AND WE`RE BEING CAUTIOUS. 60S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH. THE ECMWF MOS WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AND IT WAS ALSO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...IF THAT IS TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THEN WE ARE LIKELY YO COOL WITH OUR TEMPERATURE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE A FAN OF WARMTH...THAT IS GOOD NEWS AND SUGGESTS A LOT OF LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 60 FOR 2-3 DAYS. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL WE MIX. THE GFS HAS A KNOWN COOL BIAS WITH TEMPS AND IT APPEARS TO BE UNDER FORECASTING THE MIXING POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK. THE SNOW COVER WILL BE GONE BY NEXT WEEK AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM SUGGEST FORECASTERS SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKE THE ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE STRAIGHT 2M TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND THE ECMWF MOS IS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60. WE BOOSTED HIGHS TODAY AND IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO HOLD...WE WILL LIKELY GO WARMER IN THE DAYS TO COME. IN TERMS OF PRECIP...THERE ISN`T MUCH GOING FOR MN/WI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SIGNAL IS WEAK LOCALLY WITH A WEAK NORTHERN WAVE AND WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. A DAY AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...BUT THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH AND MAY MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY. WE STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH JUST TRACE-0.02" LIQUID...BUT WE COULD PROBABLY REMOVE THAT AT SOME POINT. THE PROBLEM IS WE ARE TRYING TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN FROM THE W/NW AND THAT TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD MUCH...MAY SOME MID CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR VIRGA IN SOUTHERN MN. SOME OF THE WRF SOLUTIONS WE HAVE ACCESS TO GENERATE LIGHT AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN IOWA. NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR MOISTURE HERE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE. GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS. BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT 30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL. KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS. MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE 20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING IN THE 20S/30S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN. AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE 06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS. THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE. GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS. BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT 30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL. KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS. MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1000 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 .UPDATE...THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA AND RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT SEVEN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED OVER THE DELTA REGION THIS EVENING THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS. STILL...WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER 20S AND TEENS FOR NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. /22/ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER AND LIGHTER NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/ SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES WILL EXIST AT SITES WHERE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...AND VFR STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT... RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/ DISCUSSION...THE WINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED THE ARKLAMISS LATE LAST NIGHT AND MUCH OF TODAY IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS HAVE ENDED. THERE ARE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN THE PINEBELT REGION BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED ABOVE FREEZING AND NO TRAVEL ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THERE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER ICE/SLEET...WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT ISSUES WITH REFREEZING FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS DRY NORTHERLY WINDS HELP TO DRY OFF THE ROADS. WHILE REFREEZING MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS NOT QUITE AS BIG OF A CONCERN AS IT WAS EARLIER...ESPECIALLY ON THE WELL-TRAVELED ROADS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS OVER-DOING COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ICE COVER TONIGHT AND THIS IS MAKING FOR A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DID NOT WANT TO GO NEARLY AS LOW AS HRRR WHICH HAS SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DO BELIEVE TEENS WILL BE COMMON PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HAVE CUT CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT NOT TOO MUCH AS THERE COULD BE A BIT OF CIRRUS THAT DISRUPTS COOLING. /EC/ SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 21 44 25 58 / 0 0 0 6 MERIDIAN 21 46 21 59 / 0 0 0 5 VICKSBURG 20 44 23 55 / 0 0 0 6 HATTIESBURG 24 51 25 63 / 0 0 0 7 NATCHEZ 21 44 24 58 / 0 0 0 8 GREENVILLE 18 38 23 51 / 0 0 0 4 GREENWOOD 17 41 21 54 / 0 0 0 4 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 22/19/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RFW CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH INDICATES NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND FIRE ZONE 209. AFTER A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT AND FORECAST CONDITIONS...FORECAST TD/S WERE LOWER SLIGHTLY...IN LINE WITH WHAT THE CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING. THUS LOCALIZED AREAS OF 15-20% RH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL IN QUESTION HOWEVER AND WHEN USING A HYBRID BLEND OF THE HRRR 80M WIND GUST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 25 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MINIMUM RH IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SO ALL IN ALL...TODAY WE/RE ANTICIPATING NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT A RFW IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS BECOME SNOW FREE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS. AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DRAWS DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT...BUT PEAK GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN AT 20KTS OR LESS. THESE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE SETTING SUN. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A 30KT INCREASE IN 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AT KVTN...KANW...AND POSSIBLY KTIF NEAR DAWN. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS. WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JACOBS SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...JACOBS FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
902 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RFW CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH INDICATES NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND FIRE ZONE 209. AFTER A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT AND FORECAST CONDITIONS...FORECAST TD/S WERE LOWER SLIGHTLY...IN LINE WITH WHAT THE CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING. THUS LOCALIZED AREAS OF 15-20% RH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL IN QUESTION HOWEVER AND WHEN USING A HYBRID BLEND OF THE HRRR 80M WIND GUST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 25 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MINIMUM RH IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SO ALL IN ALL...TODAY WE/RE ANTICIPATING NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT A RFW IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS BECOME SNOW FREE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS. AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCT-BKN100-120 CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS. WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JACOBS SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
532 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS BECOME SNOW FREE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS. AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCT-BKN100-120 CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS. WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS BECOME SNOW FREE. SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS. AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015 SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 25000 FT AGL WITH ANY CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY... RADAR APPEARS TO SHOW THE LAST OF ANY PRECIP IN A NARROW BAND AS IT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH IS SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING LOST AS THE 850MB IS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WANING. AFTER SCATTERED REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHWARD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WILL BE LOST BY 10PM. THE HRRR SOUNDINGS DO STILL SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VIA THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS...AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AIRCRAFT (AMDAR) SOUNDING AT KRDU JUST BEFORE 900 PM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE WEAK AND SHALLOW BANDS STILL DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL BE GONE BY 11PM... SO THE MAIN PRECIP MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG WHERE TEMPS ARE FALLING BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP HAS ENDED. WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...THE HRRR SHOWS RAPID CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMAINING MOISTURE BELOW 850MB IS SCOURED OUT. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE GIVING UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN DELAYED SO FAR...WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM/MET GUIDANCE. THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE A FEW HOURS OF A DRYING WIND WILL NO DOUBT HELP...BLACK ICE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS IS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... WHICH WOULD ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING POPS WOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AND RIDING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WOULD TAKE A HIT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCING IN SITU DAMMING...AND HIGHS WILL STALL IN THE 50S... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER IF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ALLOWS FOR A MORE FAVORABLE DAMMING FEATURES TO ALIGN. CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF FURTHER IN THE WED AND THU PERIODS DUE TO QUESTIONABLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY... A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-078. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...WSS/BLS SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1234 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR SOME VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE COMPLETELY SHUTOFF FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD HAS CLEARED THE COAST WITH ASOS/AWOS OBS INDICATING ONLY PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINING. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY MEAN THE EVENT IS OVER...THE 00Z WAS MOST EMPHATIC THAT A SECOND WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE 300K SURFACE OVERHEAD JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBTLE BACKING OF THE 700-800 MB FLOW. THE GFS IS FLATTER WITH THIS DEVELOPING WAVE WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON LAND. I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LATE-NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST...HOWEVER I BELIEVE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD LAYER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THICKENING TO 3500-4000 FEET DEPTH BENEATH THE WARM CLOUD ALOFT...SLEET WOULD BE THE PREFERRED PRECIP TYPE RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS... ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE MAIN DRIVER IN ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING RAIN WAS ALONG A CKI TO LBT LINE AND THIS WAS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. RADAR SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD CREEPING SLOWLY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S. FACTOR IN A N WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IT FEELS AS IF IT WERE IN THE 20S LATE THIS EVE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A SLOW...BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...LASTLY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR IS SHALLOW WITH N TO NE WINDS THROUGH 4 KFT BEING TOPPED BY A DEEP AND STILL STRONG SW TO WSW FLOW. THIS DOES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. WILL HANG ONTO THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WILL THEN SHOW THE PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE AIR TEMPS DROP TO 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE RELUCTANT TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THIS AREA IN THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA...THIS WILL COMPLICATE THINGS AS ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPS OF THE LAST TWO DAYS...GROUND TEMPS TO INCLUDE ROADWAYS...AND EXPOSED SURFACES TO INCLUDE BRIDGES...TREES...POWER LINES AND CARS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO REACH FREEZING BEFORE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS. THUS...ALTHOUGH INSTRUMENTS MAY REPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...NO ICE ACCRUAL IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WINTER WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A CERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AS A WINTRY TYPE. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE COLUMN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE COLUMN...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN MENTIONABLE. FOR THIS REASON HAVE CUT BACK POP TO SILENT FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...AND EVEN THERE ONLY A SCHC IS WARRANTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIP MAY BE A BIT OF IP/ZR BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ANY WINTRY PRECIP. THEREAFTER...RAPID DRYING OCCURS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ENVELOP THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN. EVEN WITH FULL MARCH SUN...TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 30S - A FULL 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY CAUSING CAA TO WEAKEN...AND A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY COLUMN AND WEEK WINDS SUPPORT STRONG LONGWAVE COOLING. GUIDANCE HAS COOLED A BIT...AND WE MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT (20 AT WILMINGTON AND 20 AT FLORENCE). CURRENT FORECASTS ARE JUST ABOVE THESE NUMBERS...BUT AN EXCEEDINGLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. A WARMER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EVEN BENEATH THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE STILL EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOWS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES JOGS TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY WITH A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED OFFSHORE. THIS IS WHAT REMAINS OF OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATER TODAY. BEYOND THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCES. WITH THE WEAK FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE FORCING IS SLIGHTLY BETTER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED QUITE A BIT BY THE MOISTURE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 45-50 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...AT THE INLAND TERMINALS MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 09Z...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPO MVFR CIG UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE N GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT DECREASING TO NE AROUND 12 KT BY LATE MORNING. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THE SAME TREND IN CIGS IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT LINGER JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH POTENTIALLY 12-14Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW ICE PELLETS AT KILM AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE N GUSTING TO 25-30KT DECEASING TO NE AROUND 12 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCT BY AFTERNOON. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY SURGE AND THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 9 FT. SEAS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TO INCLUDE LONG BAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS AND THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 10AM FOR NORTH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 34 KTS. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE THEREAFTER...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH FRIDAY...REMAINING 15-20 KTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CONTINUED STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 6 FT ALL OF FRIDAY...AND AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNING DROPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS...AND THEN OVER...THE WATERS ON SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION LATE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL STEADILY ON SATURDAY...LEVELING OFF AT 1-2 FT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO MODEST WIND FIELDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST AND AN OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL DISPLAY SOME VARIATION BUT OVERALL A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD BE GOOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL START OFF VERY LOW...1-2 FEET SUNDAY AND INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS HOVER AROUND THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS. COULD EVEN SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
936 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 930 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLY LINGERING. WITH THAT...HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FALLEN AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST. THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
632 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FALLEN AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST. THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1013 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUAL CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...TO AND ABOVE NORMALS IN THE MID 40S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING SLOWLY AS WE MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5-15 MPH. RAISED MINS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON PRECIP...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN NE OH/NW PA WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN A MOIST BIAS IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THESE ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 7-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ON TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING BETTER AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A LESS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SKIES STARTING OFF MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE ERIE IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAMDNG. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT HOPING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR PRIMARILY SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN INVERSION AND MELTING SNOW COMBINATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SKIRT BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE DAILY WARM UPS WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND MELT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE SNOW OVER THE AREA...BUT AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS ICY AT TIMES. RIVERS WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODEST RISE WITH THE INCREASED RUNOFF...WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LONG TERM MODELS. FORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY SO THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS AT BEST. ON THURSDAY WITH THE NE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE LOCATIONS LIKE KERI WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO OCCUR. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A LOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY. WILL STICK WITH THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT FOR THE FIRST 50S OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO GO HIGHER EVENTUALLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW IS EAST OF ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH CEILINGS BKN035-BKN040 ELSEWHERE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIKELY WASHING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT NOW BEING OBSERVED AND FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODELS MAY KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FROM LOWS GETTING AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (ALONG WITH A LITTLE WIND)...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S FAR WEST (EAST CENTRAL INDIANA/WEST CENTRAL OHIO) TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIP. MORE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THIS OUTLOOK COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN A REGIME OF WEAK ADVECTION. HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MID 40S ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH INITIAL SRN STREAM S/W LIFTING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY TUESDAY. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING HOW FAR NORTH TO EXTEND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND. GFS HAS TRENDED A LTL FARTHER NORTH MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLN BUT LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW SHIFTED A LTL SE. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SE PORTION OF ILN/S FA DURG DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WIG HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH. IN REGION OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD THRU THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS WED/THEW FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPR 50S SOUTH. WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE OHIO BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND KEEPING THE FCST COLLABORATED HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THUS...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE A LITTLE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK FROM A NORTHWEST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUAL CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...TO AND ABOVE NORMALS IN THE MID 40S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN A MOIST BIAS IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THESE ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 7-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ON TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING BETTER AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A LESS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SKIES STARTING OFF MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE ERIE IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAMDNG. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT HOPING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR PRIMARILY SNOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IF ANYTHING OUT WEST WHERE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE PREVAILING MOISTURE IN THE EAST WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE NOTABLE DRIER AIR ALOFT IT IS UNLIKELY THE AREA WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN INVERSION AND MELTING SNOW COMBINATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SKIRT BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE DAILY WARM UPS WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND MELT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE SNOW OVER THE AREA...BUT AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS ICY AT TIMES. RIVERS WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODEST RISE WITH THE INCREASED RUNOFF...WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LONG TERM MODELS. FORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY SO THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS AT BEST. ON THURSDAY WITH THE NE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE LOCATIONS LIKE KERI WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO OCCUR. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A LOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY. WILL STICK WITH THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT FOR THE FIRST 50S OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO GO HIGHER EVENTUALLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW IS EAST OF ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH CEILINGS BKN035-BKN040 ELSEWHERE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... UPPER AIR CHART SHOWS A WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX TRAVELING WITH THE FLOW. SURFACE MAP HAS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM MID CLOUDS FORMING IN LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RADAR ECHOES FROM THE MID CLOUDS ARE NOT REACHING THE SURFACE THROUGH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...SKY COVER WILL DIMINISH IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING MOISTURE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH EARLY WILL SUBSIDE LATER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIP. MORE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THIS OUTLOOK COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN A REGIME OF WEAK ADVECTION. HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MID 40S ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH INITIAL SRN STREAM S/W LIFTING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY TUESDAY. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING HOW FAR NORTH TO EXTEND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND. GFS HAS TRENDED A LTL FARTHER NORTH MORE TOWARD PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLN BUT LATEST ECMWF HAS NOW SHIFTED A LTL SE. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE SE PORTION OF ILN/S FA DURG DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WIG HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH. IN REGION OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD THRU THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS WED/THEW FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPR 50S SOUTH. WARM AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUR SRN FA FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MODEL SOLNS POINTING TO SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE OHIO BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND KEEPING THE FCST COLLABORATED HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE OVER DONE ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THUS...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE A LITTLE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK FROM A NORTHWEST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS TEMPERATURES COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL RH LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING IN WHICH THE GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS (KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND CURRENT SNOW COVER. THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN MORE SO WITH SNOW COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURES BEEN ON RISE IN SOME AREAS. BIG RANGE. CXY AND LNS COLDER THAN THV FOR A CHANGE. AREAS WITH A BREEZE ON THE RISE. LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NOTHING GOING ON AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME POTENTIAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE WAS DONE TO EDGE BACK THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE. LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES. DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS. THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RADAR LOOP AT 03Z SHOWS LGT SNOW ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PA...AS ASSOC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVR S QUEBEC PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL MAY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT KBFD AND ESP KJST. OUTLOOK... MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS. TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA. WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890. IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURES BEEN ON RISE IN SOME AREAS. BIG RANGE. CXY AND LNS COLDER THAN THV FOR A CHANGE. AREAS WITH A BREEZE ON THE RISE. LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NOTHING GOING ON AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME POTENTIAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE WAS DONE TO EDGE BACK THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE. LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES. DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS. THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL BRING LGT SNOW TO NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AT 00Z...COMBINED WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AT KBFD WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID IMPROVEMENT ARND 01Z...AS LOW PRES LIFTS AWAY. FURTHER EAST...A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KIPT APPEARS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-02Z. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY UPSLOPING ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD MVFR VIS AT THE WORST. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT KBFD AND ESP KJST. OUTLOOK... MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS. TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA. WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890. IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE WAS DONE TO EDGE BACK THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES. DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS. THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL BRING LGT SNOW TO NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AT 00Z...COMBINED WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AT KBFD WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID IMPROVEMENT ARND 01Z...AS LOW PRES LIFTS AWAY. FURTHER EAST...A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KIPT APPEARS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-02Z. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY UPSLOPING ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD MVFR VIS AT THE WORST. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT KBFD AND ESP KJST. OUTLOOK... MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS. TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA. WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890. IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES. DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF PA WILL BRING LGT SNOW TO NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AT 00Z...COMBINED WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AT KBFD WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID IMPROVEMENT ARND 01Z...AS LOW PRES LIFTS AWAY. FURTHER EAST...A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AT KIPT APPEARS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-02Z. HOWEVER...LACK OF ANY UPSLOPING ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD MVFR VIS AT THE WORST. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE W MTNS...FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST...WHERE LOW CIGS APPEAR LIKELY. A SURGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPSLOPING WEST WIND...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CIGS IN THE 500-1000FT RANGE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN 07Z-13Z. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL YIELD PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CIGS FURTHER EAST OF THE MTNS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AT KAOO/KUNV BTWN 08Z-13Z...WHILE KMDT/KLNS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING RISING CIGS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AFTER 15Z. HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGY AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AT KBFD AND ESP KJST. OUTLOOK... MON...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS. TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA. WED-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890. IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD AND MID/HIGH CLOUD HAS CLEARED THE COAST. SMALL PATCH OF STRATOCU STILL EVIDENT OVER EASTERN WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH. DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10 BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER. LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...CERU/RXR CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
121 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD AND MID/HIGH CLOUD HAS CLEARED THE COAST. SMALL PATCH OF STRATOCU STILL EVIDENT OVER EASTERN WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH. DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10 BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER. LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE EARLY ON. THESE WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT IN KBFD WHERE A SMALL STRATOCU DECK WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1138 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 03Z...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE STATE. BACK EDGE OF MID LVL CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR LANCASTER CO BY 05Z...AND PATCH OF STRATOCU OVR WARREN/MCKEAN COS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z...AS INVERSION HGTS FALL. DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10 BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER. LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV. BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE EARLY ON. THESE WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT IN KBFD WHERE A SMALL STRATOCU DECK WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR. SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
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`S ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBRIDGE TO FAULKTON TO MILLER. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE BEING ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CONFIDENCE OF SEEING MIXED P-TYPES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH DOSE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD END UP PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RADIATION FOG TOWARD MORNING. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH JET OF SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP. CONTINUED WARMING CONDITIONS EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL FOLLOWING AIRMASS MODERATION APPROACH AND NO NEW COLD SURGES NOTED IN 12Z MODELS. SOMETHING TO KEEP A FIRE WEATHER EYE ON...THOUGH...WILL BE RH VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRY LOW LEVELS AND WARM TEMPS BROUGHT RH`S DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR A BRIEF TIME ON FRIDAY. SUSPECT THAT SOMETHING SIMILAR WILL END UP HAPPENING ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS STILL SHOW RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. OFFICES CONTINUE A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH IS WARMER THAN SUPERBLEND. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THERMAL PROFILES...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE CURRENT LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WARM DRY CONDITIONS MAY RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO UPSTREAM OBS ARE REPORTING PRECIP THOUGH THERE ARE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF KABR AND KATY SO ADJUSTED TAFS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO KEPT CIGS AND VSBY VFR AS ANY RAIN OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WISE SHORT TERM...DORN LONG TERM...SERR AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
955 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. FORECAST AREA ENJOYING AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. LINGERING RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS STILL HAVE A LOCK ON A MID- LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DECENT AMOUNT OF FORCING NOTED WITH THIS WAVE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STRONGEST MID LAYER PV-ADVECTION FORCED LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A BAND OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. MODELS STILL VACILLATING WITH QPF PLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. EITHER WAY...THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON... EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SUN TO WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN INTO THE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE GENERAL WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM/DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE PLAINS INTO OUR AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ON TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE MODELS TRY TO BUILD A SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WOULD DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A MID- LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM CANADA. THIS IN TURN WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOME...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40 TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY...COOLING INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY. OF COURSE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES COMES MELTING OF SNOW AND THE NEED TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS IA SUN MORNING. DECENT THERMODYNAMICS AND QG CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WILL LEAD THE FEATURE IN...WITH GOOD SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AIDING IN THE UPWARD MOTION. THE BULK OF ALL THIS LIFT THOUGH IS ACROSS IA...WHERE RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS ALSO PLACE THE DEEPEST SATURATION. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. AS FOR KRST/KLSE...THINK FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. CIGS COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS STILL POINT TO AN INCREASE IN LOW SATURATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z. RAP HAS STARTED TO BACKOFF THOUGH...WITH THE HRRR ALSO KEEPING ANY LOW CIGS TO THE SOUTH OR FAR NORTH. SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST SATELLITE/SFC OBS...BUT TRAJECTORIES WOULD LIKELY KEEP THESE NORTH OF KRST/KLSE. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY...GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW. UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED IF MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE LIKELY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP SOME WEAK QG MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7/5C/KM. RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SUMMIT COUNTY REFLECT THIS INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THERE. WL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT SOME SMALL POTENTIAL OF THIS AS WELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH DENVER EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12Z. MAIN PRESSURE RISES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS NNWLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH SOME BRIEF SCT LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 ON MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. CAN`T RULE OUT THAT A FEW LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED ST MOST...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5F ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC WAVE SHEARING INTO TWO WITH ONE PIECE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND PART OF IT DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO MEXICO. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE WETTER AND COOLER HAS A SECOND WAVE PASSING THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THIS. IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF IT...LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION. BY NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH THE LOW OVER MEXICO. FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FRONT TO THE NORTH TO DENVER SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING AROUND 12Z. NNWLY WINDS FOLLOWING FROPA. COULD SEE A BRIEF BKN MID CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING...BUT PROSPECTS OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK ARE NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD AT THIS POINT. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO ESELY BY THIS AFTN...THEN BACK TO A SLY DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM...MEIER AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM... 328 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS TEMPS WARM. SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. JEE && .LONG TERM... 340 AM CDT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY. 850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD. KMD && .HYDROLOGY... DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT IN THE MORNING. A WEAK WAVE WILL ALSO PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MN PUSHING EAST. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS THE FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL AND THINKING THE SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS. IF THE SPRINKLES DO REACH THE TERMINALS...LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE ADDED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS...BUT ALSO HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFF CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY LAST. WINDS TURN SSW THIS AFTN AND THEN VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LINGER IF THEY DO. * VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MDB && .MARINE... 340 AM CDT A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 331 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface observations. Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However, the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12 hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north, but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing. Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a result. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 High pressure building into Illinois from the north will keep winds light and variable the rest of the night. Light fog could develop due to boundary layer moisture from melting today. However, the HRRR continues to keep any dense fog north of our TAF sites, and no observations in and around our forecast area are showing even a hint of vis reduction below 10sm. Will keep fog out of this set of TAFs. Clouds will increase from the northwest after sunrise as a shortwave moves across N IL. We could see a few sprinkles reach the ground near Peoria and possibly Bloomington Sunday afternoon, but no measurable precip is expected due to dry air in the sub- cloud layer. Cloud bases should remain VFR through the day at all our TAF sites. Mid- high clouds will push north into IL tomorrow as a frontal boundary stalls out just south of our counties. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bak LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 .UPDATE...911 PM CST NO REAL BIG CHANGES THIS EVENING...AS QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TEMP AND SKY TRENDS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS TEMPS SLOWLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 20S. RODRIGUEZ && .SHORT TERM... 307 PM CST THROUGH MONDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. TONIGHT.... COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AS IT DOES SO. THERE ISNT A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT....AS WELL AS A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN AND NEAR DOWNTOWN. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON HANDLING A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON SUNDAY...STRONGEST AT 700 MB. THERE WAS BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT ALSO IN WEAKENING THE FGEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...DID REINTRODUCE POPS...BUT KEPT THEM IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MENTIONED OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN GRIDS. CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FAVORED. MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THEN WASHOUT...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LET TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S. A FEW UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. MONDAY... THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OFF THE EXISTING SNOW COVER. LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY OVERALL. PROGGED 850/925 MB TEMPERATURE CLIMO ON MONDAY SUPPORTS LOW-MID 40S FOR HIGHS...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND. RC && .LONG TERM... 335 PM CST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ANTICIPATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO REALIZE WARMING FROM MILD MID TO HIGH SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AIR MASS AT 850 AND 925 MB TO BE REALIZED...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AIR MASS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARM ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...A BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR OUR MOST POPULOUS AREA...INCLUDING CHICAGO...WILL BE THE FRIGID WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WAS HOPING THAT THE CONSISTENT IDEA SHOWN BY THE GFS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY WOULD NOT PAN OUT...BUT NOW AM MORE CONCERNED...AS 12Z ECMWF JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...WITH BETTER SUPPORT FOR ONSHORE FLOW ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES LAKESIDE WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND WARM WELL INTO THE 50S...IF NOT 60S IN SPOTS. GUIDANCE SPED UP ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...SO NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF CWA. AIR MASS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD...SO NO PTYPE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. RC && .HYDROLOGY... DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN. JEE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT IN THE MORNING. A WEAK WAVE WILL ALSO PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MN PUSHING EAST. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS THE FEATURE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHERN IL AND THINKING THE SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS. IF THE SPRINKLES DO REACH THE TERMINALS...LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE ADDED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS...BUT ALSO HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFF CIGS FORMING AND HOW LONG THEY LAST. WINDS TURN SSW THIS AFTN AND THEN VEER TO WEST OR NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FORMING...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LINGER IF THEY DO. * VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. JEE //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE -RA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MDB && .MARINE... 205 PM CST A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAKE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN THE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE LAKE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AGAIN BEFORE BACKING TO SWLY AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD JAMES BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY SWLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SWLY-NWLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD HELP BREAK UP ICE COVERAGE OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...OPENING UP THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BY MIDWEEK...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP ELY-SELY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1139 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A cold front will drop south through Illinois tonight. High pressure immediately behind the front will cause winds to shift from west to N-NW and become light. Somewhat drier air will begin to arrive behind the front as well. However, the 00z model guidance and latest HRRR update all show a narrow ribbon of moisture at the ground level overnight. Dewpoint depressions have dipped to 4-6F already in several areas, with overnight lows projected to drop 10-14 degrees below current readings. HRRR visibility projections had steadily improved with each hourly update this afternoon and early evening, with no dense fog in our counties overnight. The last update introduced some 5 mile fog, with dense fog just north of Galesburg to Lacon. Will continue with no mention of fog in the grids/forecast due to no sites showing any hint of vis restrictions even with small dewpoint depressions. The only clouds of note overnight will be some cirrus in the southern stream flows into our counties south of I-70, and some mid clouds in the northern stream reaching our NW counties toward sunrise. Only adjustments this evening were minor changes in clouds and hourly temp trends. Overall forecast in good shape. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 20z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold extending from southern Lake Michigan to far northern Missouri. Ahead of the boundary, W/SW winds and abundant sunshine have resulted in temperatures rising well into the 40s across central and southeast Illinois. In fact, readings have reached the lower to middle 50s from Bloomington and Lincoln westward to the Mississippi River where most of the snow cover has melted. The cold front will sweep through the area this evening, turning the winds to the W/NW but bringing in only a slightly cooler airmass. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the middle to upper 20s. Some high-res models such as the HRRR continue to suggest fog development tonight: however, given slightly drier air advecting in from the west and no signs of visibility obstruction this afternoon, think this is overdone and will not be including fog in the forecast. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 Short-wave trough evident on 20z/2pm water vapor imagery over southern Saskatchewan will track southeastward and skirt across northern Illinois on Sunday. Mid/high clouds will be on the increase ahead of this feature late tonight, with mostly cloudy conditions expected across the northern half of the KILX CWA on Sunday. While the wave will be weakening with time, most models try to squeeze out some light QPF, mainly further north toward the I-80 corridor. Forecast soundings remain quite dry below 850mb, so do not think any measurable precip will occur. Have included a chance for sprinkles north of the Peoria area in closer proximity to the vort max track. Further south, partly to mostly cloudy but dry conditions will prevail. Due to the cloud cover and a light SE flow, temperatures will be held down a bit, with readings in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will take control of the weather on Monday, leading to sunny skies and slightly warmer temps in the middle to upper 40s. As the high moves off to the east, a southern stream wave will approach from the southwest. 12z Mar 7 models are in fairly good agreement that this feature will brush the SE CWA late Monday night into Tuesday. GEM is the most bullish with precip spreading further N/NW, but think this is too aggressive based on dry low-level profiles. Will increase cloud cover across the E/SE Monday night into Tuesday and mention a slight chance for rain south of I-70. Elsewhere around the area, partial sunshine and light southerly flow will boost highs into the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday. After a warm/dry day on Wednesday with highs well into the 50s across the board, yet another southern stream storm system will approach from the south later in the week. Models do not have a good handle on this feature yet, with the latest ECMWF spreading rain into central Illinois as early as Thursday afternoon while the GFS holds off until Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, the GEM is completely dry through Friday, as it keeps the system further southeast across the Ohio River Valley. Given the model discrepancies, made very few changes to the current forecast. Will maintain warm/dry weather through Thursday, then will introduce PoPs Thursday night and Friday. Best rain chances appear to be along/east of I-55, but will keep them in the chance category until better model agreement is achieved. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 High pressure building into Illinois from the north will keep winds light and variable the rest of the night. Light fog could develop due to boundary layer moisture from melting today. However, the HRRR continues to keep any dense fog north of our TAF sites, and no observations in and around our forecast area are showing even a hint of vis reduction below 10sm. Will keep fog out of this set of TAFs. Clouds will increase from the northwest after sunrise as a shortwave moves across N IL. We could see a few sprinkles reach the ground near Peoria and possibly Bloomington Sunday afternoon, but no measurable precip is expected due to dry air in the sub- cloud layer. Cloud bases should remain VFR through the day at all our TAF sites. Mid- high clouds will push north into IL tomorrow as a frontal boundary stalls out just south of our counties. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
319 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVING FAST THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND NW WI. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIND-MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS REMAINING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE 40S ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING ZONAL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT TUESDAY. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN INTO MID-LATE WEEK WITH THE POSITION OF A SURFACE HIGH/LOW AND HOW QUICK THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE PERIOD WILL ALSO FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS MOST SYSTEMS REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER FORTIES TO NEAR FIFTY...THEN COOL SOME ON SATURDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AN OFF LAKE WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND THE LAKE COOLER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 38 22 44 31 / 40 0 0 10 INL 34 20 44 27 / 20 10 0 10 BRD 37 21 48 31 / 10 0 0 0 HYR 37 22 46 30 / 30 0 0 0 ASX 39 23 46 32 / 30 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...STEWART LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1200 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 UPDATED FOR NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 LINGERING FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE THE MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT ROLLED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE WAVE...HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE RISEN AND ALLOWED FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO DEVELOP AND END THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD. THERE ARE STILL VERY WEAK ECHOES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY DUE TO THE LINGER EFFECTS OF THE S/W AND A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT AND A DECENT NWLY FETCH OVER THE LAKE. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE AND PRECEDING CLOUD COVER MOVE IN CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER N-CENTRAL MN TONIGHT AND SPREAD E/SEWD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TRAILING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO N-CENTRAL WI INTO LATE SUN MORNING. THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH MODEST WAA AND A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL FGEN HELPING THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW. THE HIGHER AMTS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS SOME WEAK FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT SOUTH TO BRING SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE NORTH. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW SKIMMING ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SMALL POPS GOING FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A DECENT SLUG OF WARM AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENT. IN FACT...IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME SNOW COVER GOING INTO THIS EVENT THAT WOULD KEEP SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES DOWN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE REACHING INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SNOWPACK MAY TAKE A SIGNIFICANT HIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE EAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVECTING COLD LAKE AIR INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND COOLING THINGS OFF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 18 38 22 44 / 40 30 0 0 INL 14 34 20 44 / 60 20 10 0 BRD 20 38 22 48 / 20 10 0 0 HYR 18 37 21 45 / 30 30 0 0 ASX 20 39 23 46 / 20 20 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON... RAP SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NE MT EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WAS GENERATING A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER THE REGION. ECHOES WERE VERY LIGHT...SO AT MOST THEY WERE PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT UNDER NW FLOW TODAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIXING WILL BE CLOSE TO 700 MB TODAY BASED ON RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE RECENT TEMPERATURES WELL. WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NW FLOW TO CONTINUE MON AND MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY SO NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. UNDER A MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WILL BE TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV AND MET FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDING TRENDS. RESULT WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS ALOFT WERE STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT... AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND...AS 500-MB RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE ONLY ONE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. NOT ONLY DOES THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FROPA TIMING LOOKS LIKE IT MAY SEE FROM PREFRONTAL WARMING AS WELL. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THAT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GET A GOOD READ ON THAT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COMPLETION OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD STILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BEING THE POST FRONTAL TRANSITION DAY BUT...SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR VERY COLD...AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD...OPENING THE DOOR TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT POTENTIAL. AAG && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 062 034/065 036/068 040/071 044/067 039/062 036/067 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U LVM 057 032/060 036/064 041/070 045/063 038/061 035/063 0/U 00/N 00/N 01/B 13/W 21/B 11/B HDN 062 031/067 033/071 036/072 039/068 038/065 033/069 0/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U MLS 059 031/062 033/067 036/069 040/065 036/060 032/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 4BQ 058 029/061 031/067 034/073 038/066 036/061 030/064 0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U BHK 056 028/059 030/064 033/069 037/063 033/056 028/060 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U SHR 057 028/061 029/065 034/072 038/065 036/063 030/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015 LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NOW SLIDING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. LOOKING AHEAD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RISING MOTION LEADING TO SCT CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SCT/BKN CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A DRY/MILDER FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLY LINGERING. WITH THAT...HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FALLEN AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST. THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2015 SKY CONDITION WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR TO SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500FT AND 7000FT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR KBIS/KJMS. WEST WINDS AVERAGING 10KT SUNDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUAL CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...TO AND ABOVE NORMALS IN THE MID 40S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING SLOWLY AS WE MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5-15 MPH. RAISED MINS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON PRECIP...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS IN NE OH/NW PA WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN A MOIST BIAS IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THESE ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 7-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ON TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING BETTER AND ONLY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A LESS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SKIES STARTING OFF MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE ERIE IN EXTREME NE OHIO/NW PA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAMDNG. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT HOPING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR PRIMARILY SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN INVERSION AND MELTING SNOW COMBINATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SKIRT BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE DAILY WARM UPS WILL GRADUALLY COMPACT AND MELT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE SNOW OVER THE AREA...BUT AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS ICY AT TIMES. RIVERS WILL SEE A MINOR TO MODEST RISE WITH THE INCREASED RUNOFF...WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LONG TERM MODELS. FORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY SO THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE PRACTICAL WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS AT BEST. ON THURSDAY WITH THE NE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE LOCATIONS LIKE KERI WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO OCCUR. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A LOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO FRIDAY. WILL STICK WITH THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE A SHOT FOR THE FIRST 50S OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO GO HIGHER EVENTUALLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR SNOW SHOWER AROUND KERI BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS WITH CEILINGS BKN035-BKN045 FOR A WHILE THROUGH EARLY/MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LOWER CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING BUT THERE DOES NOT SEEM MUCH CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THIS OCCURS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAMISON NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
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`S ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBRIDGE TO FAULKTON TO MILLER. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE BEING ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CONFIDENCE OF SEEING MIXED P-TYPES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH DOSE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD END UP PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RADIATION FOG TOWARD MORNING. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH JET OF SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP. CONTINUED WARMING CONDITIONS EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL FOLLOWING AIRMASS MODERATION APPROACH AND NO NEW COLD SURGES NOTED IN 12Z MODELS. SOMETHING TO KEEP A FIRE WEATHER EYE ON...THOUGH...WILL BE RH VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRY LOW LEVELS AND WARM TEMPS BROUGHT RH`S DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR A BRIEF TIME ON FRIDAY. SUSPECT THAT SOMETHING SIMILAR WILL END UP HAPPENING ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS STILL SHOW RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. OFFICES CONTINUE A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH IS WARMER THAN SUPERBLEND. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THERMAL PROFILES...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE CURRENT LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WARM DRY CONDITIONS MAY RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY BEFORE EXITING AROUND 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WISE SHORT TERM...DORN LONG TERM...SERR AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM... INTO SOUTHWEST TN. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. JCL && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS CLOUD DECKS LOWER AND RAINFALL INCREASES. TVT && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH. ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. 500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS IA SUN MORNING. DECENT THERMODYNAMICS AND QG CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WILL LEAD THE FEATURE IN...WITH GOOD SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AIDING IN THE UPWARD MOTION. THE BULK OF ALL THIS LIFT THOUGH IS ACROSS IA...WHERE RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS ALSO PLACE THE DEEPEST SATURATION. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. AS FOR KRST/KLSE...THINK FLURRIES ARE MORE LIKELY...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. CIGS COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS STILL POINT TO AN INCREASE IN LOW SATURATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z. RAP HAS STARTED TO BACKOFF THOUGH...WITH THE HRRR ALSO KEEPING ANY LOW CIGS TO THE SOUTH OR FAR NORTH. SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST SATELLITE/SFC OBS...BUT TRAJECTORIES WOULD LIKELY KEEP THESE NORTH OF KRST/KLSE. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY...GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW. UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED IF MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE LIKELY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE (REST OF TODAY-MONDAY)... 13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOWS CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS OUT OF MEXICO... ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDE WITHIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW IS STAYING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY ZONAL...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE RIDGED IN NATURE AS ONE COMES DOWN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY BY 650/700/800MB. THE 08/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THIS RIDGING WITH A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800MB. THE SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES WITH IN BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE JUST BENEATH THIS INVERSION. AT THE SURFACE...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE SC/GA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OUR POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE DAY IN STORE TO END OUT THE WEEKEND. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER VERY SOUTH FLORIDA...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MOVEMENT (PERHAPS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT) OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN OVER THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...AND FEEL IT WILL BE OVER THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTIES THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS AT SUFFICIENT LIFT ARRIVING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES (HIGHLANDS/LEE) TO SUPPORT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NILL. ELSEWHERE...FOR THE REMAINING 90% OF THE AREA...THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH MIDDLE 70S FAR NORTH...UPPER 70S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF A SEA-BREEZE. WINDS MAY SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AT THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE FAIL TO SHIFT THE FLOW ONSHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW IN THE 975-900MB LAYER. THE KTBW SOUNDING HAD WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS JUST 1000 FEET AGL. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY... BUT EVEN 10-15 KNOTS IS USUALLY ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY REAL SEA-BREEZE FORMATION IN CHECK. TONIGHT... ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER OUR AREA. SO...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY STRENGTHEN BUT BECOME DEEPER IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS WE SEE PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC RIDGING APPEARING AS HIGH AS 500-400MB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DEEPER SUPPRESSION SHOULD HELP THE FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. MONDAY... THE SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ALOFT FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...AND ARE GENERALLY QUITE DRY ABOVE 700MB. HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET OR SO. AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE SURFACE FOCUS...WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NEARSHORE WINDS...APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SCT SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS BASED ON THE OVERLAPPING OF FEATURES WOULD EXIST FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE CHANCE RANGE POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SITUATION WITH ONLY A LIMITED IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT...WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDINESS...WILL ALSO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BOOST THE TEMPS FAST. CURRENT MOS READINGS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 80 OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS...AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF A FEEBLE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING UNDER A SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK. THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS. WIND WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW MOVES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY SEA FOG LOOKS TO REENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 63 80 66 / 0 0 30 10 FMY 82 65 83 66 / 10 20 30 0 GIF 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 30 10 SRQ 80 63 80 65 / 0 0 30 10 BKV 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 10 SPG 78 65 79 68 / 0 0 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA AVIATION...WYNN Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1011 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for now. Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures. There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface observations. Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However, the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12 hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north, but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing. Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a result. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Upper level disturbances will produce periods of VFR cigs, but do not expect any precipitation to reach the ground. A weak pressure pattern through the period will produce light/variable winds; && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Bak LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT ACROSS THE ARRWOHEAD AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NW WI. THE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVE ACROSS NW WI SO THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVING FAST THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND NW WI. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIND-MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS REMAINING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SECTION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE 40S ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING ZONAL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT TUESDAY. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN INTO MID-LATE WEEK WITH THE POSITION OF A SURFACE HIGH/LOW AND HOW QUICK THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE PERIOD WILL ALSO FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS MOST SYSTEMS REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER FORTIES TO NEAR FIFTY...THEN COOL SOME ON SATURDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AN OFF LAKE WIND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND THE LAKE COOLER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND WINDS BACKING SOUTH AND THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS CLOSE TO HIB AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK INSTABILITY RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 38 22 44 31 / 20 0 0 10 INL 34 20 44 27 / 10 10 0 10 BRD 37 21 48 31 / 10 0 0 0 HYR 37 22 46 30 / 20 0 0 0 ASX 39 23 46 32 / 20 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...STEWART SHORT TERM...STEWART LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE AS THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ALOFT THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKER TODAY ALONG WITH WINDS ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE QUITE AS BREEZY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AROUND 800MB TODAY AND MIXING WINDS WERE WESTERLY...SO DO ANTICIPATE HIGHS NEAR 60. GETTING A COOLER START TO THE DAY TODAY AND THIS GIVES A LITTLE PAUSE THAT HIGHS MAY NOT QUITE BE AS WARM AS FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HAS MY BIAS...SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN PLACE. HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG MIXING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. DID LOWER VALUES TO GET TO AROUUND 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT FALL AS LOW AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO WEAKER MIXING AND WINDS. TWH && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON... RAP SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NE MT EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WAS GENERATING A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER THE REGION. ECHOES WERE VERY LIGHT...SO AT MOST THEY WERE PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT UNDER NW FLOW TODAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIXING WILL BE CLOSE TO 700 MB TODAY BASED ON RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE RECENT TEMPERATURES WELL. WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. NW FLOW TO CONTINUE MON AND MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY SO NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. UNDER A MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WILL BE TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV AND MET FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BUFKIT SOUNDING TRENDS. RESULT WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. WINDS ALOFT WERE STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND KLVM AND BIG TIMBER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT... AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND...AS 500-MB RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE ONLY ONE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. NOT ONLY DOES THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FROPA TIMING LOOKS LIKE IT MAY SEE FROM PREFRONTAL WARMING AS WELL. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THAT WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GET A GOOD READ ON THAT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COMPLETION OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD STILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...BEING THE POST FRONTAL TRANSITION DAY BUT...SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEARS VERY COLD...AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS. SOUTHWEST FLOWE SETS UP OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD...OPENING THE DOOR TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT POTENTIAL. AAG && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 062 034/065 036/068 040/071 044/067 039/062 036/067 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U LVM 057 032/060 036/064 041/070 045/063 038/061 035/063 0/U 00/N 00/N 01/B 13/W 21/B 11/B HDN 062 031/067 033/071 036/072 039/068 038/065 033/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U MLS 059 031/062 033/067 036/069 040/065 036/060 032/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 4BQ 058 029/061 031/067 034/073 038/066 036/061 030/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U BHK 056 028/059 030/064 033/069 037/063 033/056 028/060 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 00/U SHR 057 028/061 029/065 034/072 038/065 036/063 030/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 21/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
607 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW... && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM... INTO SOUTHWEST TN. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. JCL .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD BE EVEN LOWER AT MEM...JBR AND MKL...AFTER 03Z MONDAY BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. TVT && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
709 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH. ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. 500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH 08.14Z...AND THEN A 6 TO 10K DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 08.16Z. SKIES WILL THEN BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY 08.15Z...AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 09.09Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOSQUITO RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AM. INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS SEEMS FAIRLY DRY. THERE IS A SWATH OF MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO RIGHT NOW BUT LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE IN PARK COUNTY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS SATURATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH? FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. WILL REASSESS THIS FOR AFTERNOON IN CASE HILITES MIGHT BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE OTHER AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF COLORADO. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MDLS KEEP SOME WEAK QG MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG ASCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7/5C/KM. RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SUMMIT COUNTY REFLECT THIS INSTABILITY AS WELL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THERE. WL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS...BUT SOME SMALL POTENTIAL OF THIS AS WELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH DENVER EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN PRESSURE RISES WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS NNWLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH SOME BRIEF SCT LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 ON MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. CAN`T RULE OUT THAT A FEW LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE FOG MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED ST MOST...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5F ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC WAVE SHEARING INTO TWO WITH ONE PIECE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND PART OF IT DIGS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO MEXICO. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE WETTER AND COOLER HAS A SECOND WAVE PASSING THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THIS. IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF IT...LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION. BY NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN WITH THE LOW OVER MEXICO. FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ENTREKIN SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM...MEIER AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS (REST OF TODAY)... 19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOWS CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS OUT OF MEXICO... ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDE WITHIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW IS STAYING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY ZONAL...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE RIDGED IN NATURE AS ONE COMES DOWN THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY BY 650/700/800MB. THE 08/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THIS RIDGING WITH A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800MB. THE SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIES WITH IN BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE JUST BENEATH THIS INVERSION. AT THE SURFACE...1027MB HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE SC/GA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OUR POSITION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS FROM A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE DAY IN STORE TO END OUT THE WEEKEND. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER VERY SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS/NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN OVER THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND STILL FEEL IT WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTIES THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BKN CUMULUS FIELD HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. WILL PATTERN OF MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 70S NORTH...UPPER 70S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DID END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF A SEA-BREEZE...ESPECIALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE NATURE COAST...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY FIND WINDS TURNING LOCALLY ONSHORE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... TONIGHT... ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER OUR AREA. SO...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY STRENGTHEN BUT BECOME DEEPER IN VERTICAL EXTENT AS WE SEE PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC RIDGING APPEARING AS HIGH AS 500-400MB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DEEPER SUPPRESSION SHOULD HELP THE FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. MONDAY... THE SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ALOFT FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...BUT AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOK AS ONE WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...AND ARE GENERALLY QUITE DRY ABOVE 700MB. HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET OR SO. AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE SURFACE FOCUS...WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE NEARSHORE WINDS...APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS BASED ON THE OVERLAPPING OF FEATURES WOULD EXIST FROM AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE CHANCE RANGE POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM AROUND 30% TO 40-50% FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. BASED ON ALL THE GUIDANCE...THIS HIGHER RAIN CHANCE MAY STILL BE A BIT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AND THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE MAY VERY WELL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE BUMPED UP INTO THE "LIKELY" RANGE...THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SITUATION WITH ONLY A LIMITED IMPACT TO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT...WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT EXCEED A QUARTER INCH. WHILE THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDINESS...WILL ALSO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BOOST THE TEMPS FAST. CURRENT MOS READINGS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK...SHOWING TEMPS APPROACHING 80 OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS...AND INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF A FEEBLE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)... TUE-THU; AN UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO SLIDES WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS FL RESULTING IN A WARM AND SOMEWHAT STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... BETWEEN LATITUDES 30 AND 40 NORTH...RE-LOCATES DOWN TO LATITUDE 30 WHILE RIDGING IN ACROSS FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO . THIS PROVIDES A RELAXED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE SOME SEA FOG TUE-WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. FRI-SUN; THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EASES EASTWARD...STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST AS IT FLATTENS AS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING IN ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COASTAL STATES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...REINFORCING THE HIGH ALONG LATITUDE 30 WHICH CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS FL TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UP THROUGH SAT THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. BUT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUN...THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER RIDGE HANGING ON OVER THE AREA...AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BRUSHES OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE FL/GA/AL BORDER. THE GFS SLOWS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENS IT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS EACH DAY ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE WED LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO SEE A BKN CU DECK FROM KPGD SOUTHWARD TO KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER BASES HAVE RAISED ABOVE VFR LEVELS AND EXPECT THIS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE 4-6KFT FOOT RANGE. SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW LATE AT NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHOWERS LOOK TO BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS...BUT RAINFALL LOOKS LIGHT AND SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW MOVES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY SEA FOG LOOKS TO ENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 63 80 66 / 0 0 30 10 FMY 82 65 83 66 / 10 20 30 0 GIF 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 30 10 SRQ 80 63 80 65 / 0 0 30 10 BKV 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 10 SPG 78 65 79 68 / 0 0 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
127 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND THE ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS IS BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN APPEARANCE AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE. LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL CAN BE FOUND IN THE UPPER KEYS AND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN NORTH OF SUGARLOAF. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SOWERS OVER THE STRAITS EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS HAS HELD THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE KEYS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S. WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 15 TO 20 IN THE UPPER KEYS ALONG THE DISSIPATING SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED IF THAT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS NEAR 15 KNOTS...BUT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE WINDS MAY STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY HIGH THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL HOLD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE COASTALS FORECAST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE CWA. DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAY DISRUPT THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO DROP WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... EAST NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VICINITY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 16 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 73 82 75 82 / - 10 10 10 MARATHON 73 84 75 85 / - 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN DATA COLLECTION.......FLING VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 604 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid 40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead, but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72 corridor. The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog, with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight, as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson), with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200 feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 High pressure area will slowly move across the region through tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and continuing through Wed night. By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently, all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period. GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and blend. Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Will continue with VFR conditions this evening. Some concern remains for fog development after midnight as surface temps cool toward the dewpoints. Forecast soundings and visibility projections in the HRRR and RAP show potential for some patchy dense fog across our southern terminals. The NAM blankets the entire area with dense fog. Will continue with MVFR vis for DEC and CMI later tonight, with a tempo MVFR vis at SPI. Winds this evening will weaken as high pressure settles over northern Illinois and N Indiana. A southeast wind will develop Monday morning, but speeds should remain at or below 10kt during the day. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
314 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM... 154 PM CDT THROUGH TUESDAY... VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID- LVL CLOUDS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS HAS CREATED A SLIGHT THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL OF COOLER TEMPS UNDERNEATH...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. MEANWHILE EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW POCKETS OF PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER DEW POINTS WERE REMAINING IN THE MID 20S..WHICH WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE PRECIP AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN ANY OF THE PRECIP STILL FALLING WILL BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. GUIDANCE ALL INDICATES THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTING EAST LATE THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ERODING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH MID-LVL FLOW SEMI-ZONAL AND SFC RIDGING SLIDING EAST...TEMPS MON SHUD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 40S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. 950MB GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...HOWEVER LATER IN THE WEEK THIS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT. LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUE...WITH A SFC WAVE BEING REFLECTED UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHUD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE CWFA WITH AN EXPECTED DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING A WELCOME THERMAL RIDGE OF 5 TO 7 DEG C AT 850MB TUE. THIS SHUD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO EASILY WARM INTO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 50S. SFC RIDGING APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED...WITH A SECOND FOCUS AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WOULD INDICATE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWEST TUE NGT. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. BEACHLER && .LONG TERM... 154 PM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. SFC RIDGING WILL BE SLIDING OVER NORTHERN IL WED MIDDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD MARINE AIR TO BLEED INLAND FROM A LAKE BREEZE...AND LOCK AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE UPR 30S FOR HIGHS WED. FURTHER INLAND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS HOLDING ARND 5 TO 7 DEG C WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE A FEW UPR 50S TO 60 DEGREE READINGS WED AFTN. THUR THROUGH SUNDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN MEMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SPREAD STEADILY RAMPS UP. THUR/FRI TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE LONGER TERM...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL KEEP AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO BEEN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE TENN VALLEY THUR AFTN. PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS TO BE EXPANSIVE...AND COULD REACH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWFA THUR EVE. TEMPS SHUD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT P-TYPE AS LGT RAIN...HOWEVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD SEE A LGT RA/SN MIX THUR NGT. PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS OVERHEAD FRI AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST FRI NGT/EARLY SAT. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. BEACHLER && .HYDROLOGY... DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. LENNING //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... SNOW SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DROPPED CONDITIONS TO MFVR OR IFR IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS BUT THE MORE ACTIVE BANDS STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE ORD AND MDW TERMINALS AS ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING IN MILDER AIR AND TURN ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION INTO ALL LIQUID...IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. ALREADY LIGHT WINDS MAY GO VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LENNING //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS. LENNING //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH. SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS. JEE && .MARINE... 135 PM CDT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AXIS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES EAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.9 INCHES EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE LAKES AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 253 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Temperatures this afternoon continue to be influenced by the remaining snow pack, with a tongue of near-50 degree temperatures from Rushville northeast toward Peoria and Bloomington and low-mid 40s elsewhere. Snow melt not as easy to pick up on visible satellite imagery as yesterday, with mid and high clouds streaming overhead, but the snow pack is opening up in areas just south of the I-72 corridor. The main concern for tonight is the potential for some light fog, with the moisture from the melting snow. At present, a weak frontal boundary extends across the northern part of the forecast area, and this should settle southward this evening as a weak area of high pressure builds east across northern Illinois and Indiana. Most of the higher resolution models keep the winds up slightly overnight, as the axis of the high remains north, with only the NAM showing widespread calm winds developing. The last few runs of the HRRR model have been concentrating the dense fog potential along the southern flank of the snow field (generally Litchfield east to Robinson), with the RAP a bit more expansive northward toward I-72. The HRRR solution is closer to the boundary location. Forecast soundings off the RAP south of I-70 show plenty of saturation below about 1,200 feet with very dry air above the inversion. Have added some patchy fog for about the southeast half of the forecast area after midnight, and will need to watch for the potential for more widespread dense fog across the southeast CWA. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 High pressure area will slowly move across the region through tomorrow and push east of the area. A weather system will push north into the west side of the ridge and bring pcpn into the southern part of the state for tomorrow night and Tuesday. The northern extend of this pcpn will be dependent on the strength of the surface ridge sitting over the northern part of the state. NAM-WRF models seems too slow and holds onto the pcpn longer than the others. The GFS and ECMWF seems the most similar and the most consistent, so will lean toward their timing of the onset, extent, and exiting of the pcpn. So, pcpn will begin late tomorrow night and continue through Tuesday, with dry conditions beginning Tue night and continuing through Wed night. By Thursday, another system will move north/northeast, spreading pcpn back across portions of IL Thur through Fri night. Currently, all the pcpn will remain east of the IL river through the period. GFS and ECMWF show considerable differences in the handling of this pcpn chances. So, will try to take a middle road and lean toward and blend. Temps will remain on the warm side and warm into the middle 50s to around 60 by middle of the week and lasting toward the end of the week. Temps expected to remain above normal next weekend as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 VFR conditions to prevail across central Illinois into at least early evening. Main concern is with the moisture from melting snow in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, and any fog potential. Winds this evening are expected to weaken some as an area of high pressure settles over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Latest RAP guidance keeps any dense fog threat further south for now near a weak frontal boundary, but current depth is 2-4 inches near KDEC and KCMI, so plenty of moisture is being released. Have added prevailing MVFR visibilities for some light fog overnight at these sites, and TEMPO conditions at KSPI where the snow cover is thinner. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM... 328 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS TEMPS WARM. SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. JEE && .LONG TERM... 340 AM CDT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY. 850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD. KMD && .HYDROLOGY... DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * PATCHY SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY BRIEFLY...AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. LENNING //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... SNOW SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DROPPED CONDITIONS TO MFVR OR IFR IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS BUT THE MORE ACTIVE BANDS STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE ORD AND MDW TERMINALS AS ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING IN MILDER AIR AND TURN ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION INTO ALL LIQUID...IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. ALREADY LIGHT WINDS MAY GO VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LENNING //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS. LENNING //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH. SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS. JEE && .MARINE... 340 AM CDT A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for now. Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures. There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface observations. Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However, the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12 hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north, but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing. Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a result. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 VFR conditions to prevail across central Illinois into at least early evening. Main concern is with the moisture from melting snow in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, and any fog potential. Winds this evening are expected to weaken some as an area of high pressure settles over northern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Latest RAP guidance keeps any dense fog threat further south for now near a weak frontal boundary, but current depth is 2-4 inches near KDEC and KCMI, so plenty of moisture is being released. Have added prevailing MVFR visibilities for some light fog overnight at these sites, and TEMPO conditions at KSPI where the snow cover is thinner. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Bak LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1123 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM... 328 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... THE BIG PICTURE FEATURES A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM NORTHERN MN TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND AFTN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ALONG THE VORT STREAMER BUT SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY A FEW SITES ARE ACTUALLY SEEING LIGHT RAIN. BASED ON THESE OBS AND THE WEAKENING TREND...THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AS THE STREAMER MOVES THROUGH. KEPT A LOCALIZED BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE MID AFTN. THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW OR FLURRIES...BUT THEN EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS TEMPS WARM. SPEAKING OF TEMPS...RAISED LOWS THIS MORNING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE. ALSO RAISED HIGHS TODAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO CONSIDERING YESTERDAY WAS WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH TODAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THERE IS ALREADY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS COULD STILL BE TOO LOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. JEE && .LONG TERM... 340 AM CDT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OFF TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS JAMES BAY. 850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +4C TO +6C UNDER MODEST WSW FLOW BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE AT SOME 50S IN THE AREA. AS THE NORTHERN LOW SHIFTS EAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN PART OF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT THAN ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT A STRONG COLD SURGE WITH THE FRONT SO AREAS INLAND LOOK MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE COOLING ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WILL BRING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED ALONG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD. KMD && .HYDROLOGY... DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE PRODUCING PATCHES OF MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE STAYING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH MDW MIGHT BE CLIPPED AND BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE LOWER CONDITIONS. LENNING //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... A BAND OF MID LEVEL PRECIP IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST IL THROUGH NW IA. ONLY A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING RAIN OR SNOW SO STILL THINKING THE TERMINALS WILL MISS OUT ON THE PRECIP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FORCING FOR THE BAND DIMINISHES AS IT SINKS SOUTH. GYY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR -RA. MVFR CIGS APPEAR VERY CLOSELY TIED TO WHERE PRECIP IS REACHING THE SFC SO ONLY HAVE MVFR CIGS AT GYY. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR VERY LONG. WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN..AND THEN VEER BACK TO WEST THIS EVENING. CIGS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT MDW MISSES THE SNOW AND STAYS VFR. * MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ORD MISSES THE SNOW AND STAYS VFR. LENNING //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. SCHC -RA THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY...CHC -RA. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH. SATURDAY...SCHC -RA. VFR. NORTH WINDS. JEE && .MARINE... 340 AM CDT A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY AND TO JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE LEVELS...THOUGH WILL REACH 30 KT OR SO FOR THE NORTH HALF ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK AND TRACK JUST EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1011 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Area of light rain and snow showers continues to spread across the northern quarter of Illinois, in response to a shortwave dropping southward into Iowa. While the echoes on radar are scraping the northern part of our forecast area, surface obs indicate this is mainly caused by altocumulus clouds around 9,000 feet and the precip areas reaching the ground are in the northern few rows of counties in the state. The latest HRRR keeps the precipitation north of I-80, so will continue to maintain a dry forecast for now. Main changes to the gridded/zone forecasts were with temperatures. There was a fairly large range yesterday due to the lingering now cover, so have updated the hourly and high temperatures to try and reflect the snow`s influence. This resulted in raising temperatures a couple degrees in areas from around Rushville to Bloomington, with minor tweaks elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Generally quiet weather expected across central and southeast Illinois today. One potential fly in the ointment is the short wave currently diving across the Dakotas. While it looks fairly potent on water vapor imagery, and is causing some radar returns, it is producing very little precipitation at the surface per local surface observations. Model guidance suggests this wave is producing decent isentropic ascent and mid-level frontogenetic forcing along its path. However, the wave will be shearing out as it tracks further southeast, and the current forcing will weaken with time. Also, the best forcing is progged to stay north of the forecast area. So, plan to keep the local forecast dry at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be at or a little below the values seen yesterday (mainly 40s), due to slightly cooler air that has filtered in behind yesterday`s dry system. However, pin pointing temperatures will be tricky since some areas lost the bulk of their snowfall yesterday and this is likely to have some impact on the ultimate high temperatures today. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Warmer temperatures remains the main issue of the forecast through Day 7. Temps at 850mb on Monday still around 1-2C...but beyond that, warmer air building into the region as the main stream of flow pushes north and cold air remains trapped in nrn Canada. 850mb temps warming to 6-7C through the end of the forecast and temps rising above seasonal norms for this time of year from Tues through Sat. Forecast beginning to shift on a couple systems with precip chances. First one, late Monday night/Tuesday showing about 6-12 hrs later than prev run and the ECMWF still not quite as far north, but the NAM and the GFS are trending a bit further north and have started to bump pops along and south of I-70. Will need to bump them again if the trends continue...but the precip shield looks a bit overdone in the GFS and the NAM given an open wave and underdeveloped low...as the ECMWF is still showing. Next system well into the extended showing major timing differences btwn the GFS and the ECMWF...approx 18-24 hrs different...with the ECMWF ahead of the GFS with the development of another sfc low moving northward off of the Gulf Coast from a wave traveling through and around the synoptic trof parked over the SW for the second half of the forecast. In this particular pattern, not so much doubting the system...but the timing issue results in a spread of the pops into the weekend to compensate for the different temporal solutions. Keeping the forecast in the chance pops category as a result. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Upper level disturbances will produce periods of VFR cigs, but do not expect any precipitation to reach the ground. A weak pressure pattern through the period will produce light/variable winds; && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Bak LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH 6PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. MID DECK REMAINS PRETTY SCATTERED RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALSO CHARACTERIZE THIS AS A PERIOD WHERE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED UPSTREAM RIGHT NOW. AS A RESULT...HAVE SEEN NO REASON TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THE WAVE BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH TO I-80. UPSTREAM WHERE A FEW OBS IN IL/IA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SNOW SHOWERS...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS TIED WITH THOSE RADAR RETURNS/REPORTS. WITH THE HI RES MODELS MAINTAINING THIS WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA...OPTED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. QUESTION REMAINS TO WHETHER WHAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW OR LIQUID AS MODEL PROFILES ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SNOW. BUT...SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY KEPT ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO ACCUMULATE. INSTEAD...WITH LIFT BEING RATHER WEAK...WHAT DOES FALL MAY BE MORE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. SURFACE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION RATHER WEAK UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO TODAYS HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY QUIESCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES...THE SIMILARITIES ARE LARGER THAN THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...AND ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A WET AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO GENERATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL TOWARD THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEAL WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ITS EVOLUTION. CURVATURE DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS JET BACKBUILDING LOOK TO BE THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT...AND BOTH WILL AFFECT HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY DECIDES TO ADVECT...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD. ALLOWED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE POP SPREAD DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER WHERE THEY AGREE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONE...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DEEP ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY VARY FROM +2 TO +5C. ADDITIONALLY...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST NIL...SO NO UPSLOPE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS IT PULLS AWAY. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SURPASS 50 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE A...GASP!...ABOVE NORMAL DAY. FRIES && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES. WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MOST OF THE LIFT FOR THE WAVE BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH TO I-80. UPSTREAM WHERE A FEW OBS IN IL/IA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SNOW SHOWERS...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME 700MB FRONTOGENESIS TIED WITH THOSE RADAR RETURNS/REPORTS. WITH THE HI RES MODELS MAINTAINING THIS WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA...OPTED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. QUESTION REMAINS TO WHETHER WHAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW OR LIQUID AS MODEL PROFILES ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SNOW. BUT...SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY KEPT ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO ACCUMULATE. INSTEAD...WITH LIFT BEING RATHER WEAK...WHAT DOES FALL MAY BE MORE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. SURFACE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION RATHER WEAK UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO TODAYS HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY QUIESCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES...THE SIMILARITIES ARE LARGER THAN THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...AND ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A WET AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO GENERATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL TOWARD THE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEAL WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ITS EVOLUTION. CURVATURE DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS JET BACKBUILDING LOOK TO BE THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT...AND BOTH WILL AFFECT HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY DECIDES TO ADVECT...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD. ALLOWED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE POP SPREAD DUE TO MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER WHERE THEY AGREE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONE...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL. PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DEEP ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY VARY FROM +2 TO +5C. ADDITIONALLY...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST NIL...SO NO UPSLOPE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS IT PULLS AWAY. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SURPASS 50 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE A...GASP!...ABOVE NORMAL DAY. FRIES && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES. WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES MADE TO EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MID-HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM LOOK TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORT FROM A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD SLOW WARMING BY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE 40 DO NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MAY ALSO BRING THE SUPPORT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT BEING RATHER MEAGER...WILL KEEP THE POPS RATHER LOW. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY. TUESDAY IS COMING IN AS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF MY FORECAST AREA DO STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT TUESDAY. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINING RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME WE REMAIN UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN MONTHS...WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXITING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE TOWARD THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK EXPANDS OVER THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR STRATOCUMULUS OVERNIGHT IN NW/COLD ADVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES. WHILE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUGGESTED SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LIGHT QPF...CONFIDENCE IN THE IMPACT ON TERMINALS REMAINS RATHER LOW. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL SITES WHERE QPF WAS SUGGESTED BUT KEPT VISIBILITY AT VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOW COVER. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO LOW BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN HELPED OUT BY MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. ONE OF THE WORST PERFORMERS BY FAR HAS BEEN THE GFS RAW SFC TEMPS WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THE SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND THE HI RES ARW HAVE SHOWN THE BEST SKILL AND THE GFS MOS HAS DONE BETTER THAN THE RAW GFS DATA. WARMER AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/WARM PROD AIMED INTO SRN LWR MI ON TUESDAY. AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMP FCST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY... HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE OF THE LAST TWO DAYS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S ON MONDAY AND NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES NORTH OF HOLLAND MUCH COLDER. IN THE NEAR TERM... THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA NORTH OF I-96 THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEPART EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE BE SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WHERE SNOW MELT FROM TODAY HAS REFROZE. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD/FOG FORMATION LATE AT NIGHT THE NEXT COULD NIGHTS AS THE NAM SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 950 MB. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 QUIET WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION STREAMING UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...A HEALTHIER LOOKING SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT STAYS TO OUR NOTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. GENERALLY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS. MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IS MEDIUM AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE FOR CIGS BELOW 2K FEET WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...MKG, GRR, AND LAN. MVFR CIGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OR SO. FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS STAY UP AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO FAVORED STRATUS IN TAFS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER SOUTH...MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE I-94 TAFS AFTER 03Z...BUT KEPT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SPRING IS NEAR NORMAL. RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND STEADY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING RIVERS... ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED... BUT A FEW STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL. ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS THE ICE COVER MAY BREAK UP AND MOVE DOWN RIVER. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN ISOLATED REACHES OF THE RIVERS. SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING WOULD ONLY BECOMES A CONCERN IF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COMBINE TO RAPIDLY ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS AND QUICKLY BUST UP THE ICE COVER. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...EBW HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WSR88D IS SHOWING THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE SEGMENT IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY WELL. THIS PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE COMPARES NICELY TO THE THE 06 UTC RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF AND 16 UTC HRRR RUN. THE SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE EAST FACING BEACHES...BUT THE SOUTH FACING BEACH SEGMENT IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY WILL PROPAGATE APPROXIMATELY 20 TO 25 MILES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES APPEAR TO HAVE TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE SUNRISE AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. NO THREAT OF FOG IS EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WESTERLY FLOW TO A BUILDING RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AND ACROSS THE BOARD TUESDAY AS THE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CWA GETS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AS THE WEAK ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND WEST WITH SUBTLE AND LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WARM AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE BOARD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF A WEAKLY FORCED NATURE ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. A LETHARGIC AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BASICALLY STALLS AND WEAKENS AS A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WEAK PERIODS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON POPS IS LOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE I HAVE JOGGED THE HIGHEST POPS TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY VALUES RESIDE PRIMARILY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDED WARMING WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE TO MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES BETTER. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND BECOMING BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP. MONDAY MORNING...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED...HOWEVER ONLY MID-CLOUD CEILINGS ARE THE WORST CASE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL MVFR WITH RAINFALL TUE AND WED WITH PERIODS OF IFR TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THU AND FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACQUIRES MORE DEFINITION LATER IN THE DAY. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH A GOOD SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MONDAY. FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND TEN KNOTS. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NEAR BERMUDA WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET MONDAY INCREASING TO 1-3 FEET LATER TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL COMMENCE AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. BENIGN SEAS WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY TO POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT VALUES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ UPDATE... RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. RAIN SHOULD PUSH INTO MEMPHIS BY 5-6 PM. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE. WILL ONLY UPDATE TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND OTHER LOCATIONS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND NOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE THIS AREA TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. KRM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM... INTO SOUTHWEST TN. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. JCL && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS VFR CONDS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN. MVFR CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER WHICH MORE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SJM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .UPDATE... RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. RAIN SHOULD PUSH INTO MEMPHIS BY 5-6 PM. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE. WILL ONLY UPDATE TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND OTHER LOCATIONS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND NOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE THIS AREA TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. KRM && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A SOLID DECK OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING NORTHWEST MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAINY AND MILDER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MIDSOUTH BECOMING MORE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS RAIN SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RAIN MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY...TOOK A COMPROMISE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STUCK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM... INTO SOUTHWEST TN. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER THAN WHAT HE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ALTHOUGH OFTEN TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. JCL && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD BE EVEN LOWER AT MEM...JBR AND MKL...AFTER 03Z MONDAY BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. TVT && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE 08.00Z ECMWF WARMER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF WITH EACH NEW RUN LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMER OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION...BUT LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BAND OF MODEST RETURNS FROM EAST OF PIERRE SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTH-CENTRAL IA...COINCIDENT WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. STARTING TO SEE SOME PRECIP REACH THE GROUND AS RAIN OR SNOW...BUT FEW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY SUGGEST LIGHT INTENSITY. 08.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN IA SHOW THERE IS A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL THAT MUST FIRST SATURATE BEFORE PRECIP IS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. BEST 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE IS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. ASSUMING TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH. ALSO WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG SECONDARY WARM FRONT. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL LIMITING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS YESTERDAY REACHED THE LOWER 40S AND GIVEN INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO IF NOT EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S REGION-WIDE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THOUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. 08.00Z GFS NOW MORE IN-LINE WITH ECMWF KEEPING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...925 TO 850 HPA LAYER NOW MUCH WARMER ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT STILL NOT TO THE SAME DEGREE AS THE ECMWF. AS AN EXAMPLE...925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AT 15.00Z (TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ARE AROUND +10 DEGREES CELSIUS WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF THAT VALUE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL RUNS AND WITH SNOW MELTING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR GREATER SURFACE HEAT FLUX...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARMER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. 500 HPA TROUGH ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY DRY SNOWPACK...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ICE JAM ISSUES GIVEN THICK RIVER ICE AND RAPID WARM-UP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015 SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWMELT TODAY ADDING MOISTURE TO THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE LIGHTER/CALM WINDS WILL RESIDE. HAVE ADDED SOME 5SM BR AT BOTH KLSE/KRST TAF SITES FROM 09-14Z...BUT FEEL SOME LOCALLY DENSER FOG MAY BE SEEN SOUTH OF THE SITES. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS AVIATION...DAS