Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
353 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
PUSHES IT`S WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE/S
PASS SOUTH AND EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER`S WEAK COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THE SCATTERED FLURRIES TO PASS EAST AND WEAKEN. THE AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS - PARTICULARLY THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GFS) IS SUGGESTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. HRRR AND RAP ARE MORE OF A DEW/FROST SOUNDING. THINKING
HERE IS THAT THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO SUFFICIENT WIND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER (15+ KT).
WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...AM FCSTING STEADY TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES FOR THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. COASTAL AREAS STAY AROUND 32.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER`S TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THOUGH IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUILDS IN IN IT`S WAKE.
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT AN A BKN
STRATO CU DECK.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY THE LOWER 40S WITH A MOS BLEND USED.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE GOOD RADIATION. MOS HAS THIS INCLUDED AND
WAS ACCEPTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BECOME
MODIFIED BY DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A
FLURRY/SPRINKLE...THEN GRADUAL AFTERNOON DRYING. HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE ON MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL BERMUDA RIDGING BUILDING TUE INTO
WED...WITH A SHEARED OUT SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE RIDING UP
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TRACKING ALONG
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE REGION IS ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
PRECIP...WITH GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLES TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROB OF
.05" LIQUID TUE AFT INTO TUE NIGHT...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR ENTIRE REGION. IF PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH
TUE MORNING POTENTIAL FOR MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN...BUT BY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WED MORNING AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS AND NORTH OF THE
REGION WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
GRADUALLY FALLING FROM SEASONABLE ON WED TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND RIDGING SOUTH OF BERMUDA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO WEEKEND. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXITS ON STRENGTH OF
UPSTREAM BLOCKING...WHICH MANIFESTS IN DIFFERENCES IN PROGRESSION
OF A LATE WEEK GULF LOW PRESSURE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE WEEKEND.
IF BLOCKING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED A LONGER DURATION AND MORE
WINTRY PRECIP EVENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT AS
DEPICTED IN THE GFS...WHILE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
A QUICKER AND WARMER PRECIP EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING 8 DAYS AWAY HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR WITH MID CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. ANY FLURRIES END QUICKLY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...WITH IFR CIGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT FOG
DEVELOPMENT NOT AS LIKELY.
WSW SFC FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT END BY 23Z. SPEEDS LIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN AFTN...VFR. W SFC WND G20-25 KT.
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA.
.WED-THU...VFR
&&
.MARINE...
NO SCA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINDS GUSTING ON SUNDAY TO 25 KTS.
WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY 23Z. WINDS PICK UP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FROPA. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED MON THRU THU. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUE
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE WATER ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE MAY BE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY...COLD
WATER TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP SHOULD SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY ICE BREAK ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS THIS WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...TONGUE/NV
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
131 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
PUSHES IT`S WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING IN TO WESTERN SECTIONS WITH SHORT WAVE
ENHANCING LIFT AS SEEN IN IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NORTHEASTERN PA AS OF 18Z.
BAND OF SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ON THE SOUTHERN
END AND HAVE THUS ADDED FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH. SOME OF THIS MAY
BE A SPRINKLE AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 30S.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO MAX AND EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER`S TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THOUGH IN THE MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS - PARTICULARLY THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GFS) IS SUGGESTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. HURR AND RAP ARE MORE OF A DEW/FROST SOUNDING. THINKING
HERE IS THAT THE NAM IS OVERDONE DUE TO SUFFICIENT WIND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER (15+ KT).
WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...AM FCSTING STEADY TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES FOR THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT`S WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOKS TOO FAR TO
OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTION
OF PCPN. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SETUP FOR MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY`S WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH.
AGAIN...COMBINED MOISTURE AND LIFT DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A
CHANCE OF PCPN ANYWHERE...SO DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SUNDAY`S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF ITS PCPN SHIELD PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE CWA. ECMWF IS STILL
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND PCPN...WITH THE GFS FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH WITH ITS PCPN SHIELD FROM THE TWO
PREVIOUS RUNS. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS BRING PCPN INTO THE CWA...AND
GLOBAL GEM STILL KEEPS US DRY. WITH NO STRONG TREND
ESTABLISHED...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR TUES AFTN
AND NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN KEEPS US DRY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND WITH SLOW DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS
WELL. AFTER HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A SHRINKING MIXING
DEPTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE LEAVES US WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN SPITE OF RISING LOW
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AS A WEAK CLIPPER PASS TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WSW SFC FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTN. A BKN-OVC
DECK AT 070-100 PRODUCES FLURRIES (MAINLY ALOFT) AS IT MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON - AROUND 19Z IN THE NY METRO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN AFTN...VFR. W SFC WND G20-25 KT.
.MON-WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
IN A WESTERLY FLOW WHICH GRADUALLY RAMPS UP LATE THIS AFT INTO
THIS EVE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LOOKS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON SUN AS WINDS VEER A BIT
MORE TO THE W/NW LATE IN THE DAY. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT BOTH DAYS AS IT LOOKS TO HIGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME.
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS MON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
255 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIP DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND OVER TO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS SEEN ROUNDING A STALLED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
BAJA REGION BEFORE EJECTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS CONVERGENCE RESULTS IN
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
FOR YOUR SATURDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH HAS WEDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING THIS COOL
AIR WEDGE FROM THE MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 07/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THIS
COOL/MOIST LOW LEVEL WEDGE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SATURATED AND HIGHLY INVERTED PROFILE BELOW 800MB. THE EARLIER LOWER
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RESULTED FROM THIS INVERTED MOIST
PROFILE...BUT WITH THE MARCH SUN WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT THIS
LAYER QUITE A BIT. NOW SEEING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH NO CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE. FORECAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WILL THEREFORE FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP AND LOCAL WRFARW RUNS
ALL SUGGEST NOT AS FAVORABLE A LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING FOR
SUCH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO TRY AND LIFT NORTHWARD SLOWLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK
UPGLIDE REGIME ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09-12Z.
THEREFORE...WOULD STILL EXPECT SUNDAY TO START OUR MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY REAL
FORECAST DILEMMA FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER THE UPGLIDE WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE TREND OF THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BETTER
LIFT...SO FEEL THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT MIGHT IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT A FEW RAINDROPS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR
HIGHLANDS/DESOTO/CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
AGAIN...EITHER WAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD HAVE
LIMITED IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
READINGS TODAY AND WOULD ANTICIPATED MIDDLE 70S NORTH...MID/UPPER
70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FURTHER
SOUTH.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FEATURES OF SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT OVER N AMERICA. NORTHERN JET STREAM HOLDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WHILE SOUTHERN JET STREAM FLOW MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH QUASI CUT OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO THAT VERY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF BY
THURSDAY CAUSING N CARIB RIDGE TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER FL AND
BAHAMAS.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BAHAMAS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING SE-SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CHANCE OF DIURNAL PRECIP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
THE GULF SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY THEN LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY RIDING
NORTH OF THE AREA ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY SEEN ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS
DO NOT APPEAR AS PESSIMISTIC FOR LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT AS
OCCURRED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO WILL KEEP EACH
TERMINAL AT HIGH END MVFR CIGS FOR NOW. WILL END ALL MVFR CIGS BY
15-16Z ON SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND
THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE ZONE...INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKEN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY THE MIDDAY HOURS
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH GENERALLY LOW ERC VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 78 65 81 / 0 0 0 40
FMY 65 81 65 85 / 10 20 10 20
GIF 58 78 62 82 / 0 0 10 50
SRQ 60 79 64 81 / 0 10 10 30
BKV 52 79 59 83 / 0 0 10 40
SPG 62 77 66 80 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1028 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG TREASURE COAST...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER S FL WITH A BRISK N/NE FLOW
PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. AIRMASS NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE H100-H70
LYR WITH MRNG RAOBS MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 1.1" KXMR/KTBW...
INCREASING TO 1.5" AT KMFL. LCL DYNAMIC FORCING IS LACKING WITH
RUC40 SHOWING MINIMAL OMEGA LIFT THRU THE H85-H30 LYR...H30-H20
DIVERGENCE MARGINAL AT BEST. RADAR TREND/SFC OBS OVER THE PAST SVRL
HRS SHOWING MINIMAL PRECIP ONLY -RA/DZ ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
SUBTLE CHANGES CHANGES UPSTREAM COULD INCREASE PRECIP POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT POCKET IN THE
H90-H70 LYR POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE N FL PENINSULA...SECOND MAX
NOTED JUST OFF THE TREASURE COAST N OF THE NRN BAHAMAS. SHOULD
THESE TWO FEATURES LINK UP...LOW/MID LVL FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IN PLACE THRU THE 5KFT-15KFT LYR...WHILE
H70-H50 LAPSE RATES INCREASE UPSTREAM FROM 5.5C/KM E OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 6.5C/KM OVER THE NE GOMEX.
HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY...ALLOWING
THE N/NE BREEZE TO DIMINISH. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A LACK OF
LOW LVL INSTABILITY AS THE N/NE BREEZE GENERATES COOL AIR ADVECTION
WHILE CLOUD COVER LIMITS SFC HEATING. EVEN SO...WITH A SATURATED
H100-H70 LYR IN PLACE...WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY ALOFT...AND A SFC
BNDRY TO FOCUS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...CONCERN REMAINS FOR LCL HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TODAY/TONIGHT. INDEED...LCL WRF MODEL
CONTS TO INDICATE BANDING PRECIP OVER MARTIN/ST. LUCIE CO BTWN
00Z/12Z TONIGHT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT MODERATE FLOODING THREAT FOR
ST LUCIE/MARTIN CO AS HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL A WEEK AGO WHICH COULD
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER DUE TO NEARLY SATURATED GROUND.
FURTHER N...SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLDS ALONG AND N OF I-4 AS DRY
AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA (12Z KJAX/KTAE RAOBS MEASURED PWAT
VALUES ARND 0.2"). MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVG.
MAX TEMP FCST OF M60S/L70S N OF I-4 AND L/M70S SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 08/12Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 08/00Z...N/NE 12-15KTS WITH OCNL SFC G20-23KTS.
BTWN 08/00Z-08/03Z...N/NE DIMINISHING TO 6-8KTS...CONTG THRU 08/12Z.
VSBYS/WX: E OF KTIX-KOBE...THRU 08/00Z OCNL MVFR/LCL IFR IN
-RA/DZ/BR...AFT 08/00Z SLGT CHC IFR SHRAS. W OF KTIX-KOBE VFR.
CIGS: E OF KTIX-KOBE...THRU 08/03Z IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH
OCNL LIFR BLO FL006...AFT 08Z/03Z MVFR BTWN FL020-030 WITH OCNL
IFR BTWN FL006-009. W OF KTIX-KOBE THRU 08/00Z MVFR BTWN
FL015-025 WITH OCNL IFR BTWN FL006-009. BTWN 08/00Z-08/03Z...
BCMG VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LCL BUOY NETWORK SHOWING SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE GENERATING 6-8FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE LCL ATLC.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY KEEP SFC WINDS BLO 15KTS S OF SEBASTIAN
INLET...BUT THE TIGHT N/NE PRES GRAD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH WAVE
ENERGY INTO THE LCL WATERS...KEEPING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 9FT IN THE GULF STREAM DUE TO OPPOSING
COOL NRLY BREEZE AND WARM SRLY CURRENT.
THE MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTN
N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS HI PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SLOWLY
WEAKENS...CONTG INTO TONIGHT. STEPWISE REMOVAL OF THE SCA LOOKS
REASONABLE BEGINNING WITH THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS AT 4 PM
FOLLOWED BY THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. NO PLANS TO REMOVE
ADVISORY WILL FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...GLITTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1020 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIP DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND OVER TO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS SEEN ROUNDING A STALLED CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
BAJA REGION BEFORE EJECTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS CONVERGENCE RESULTS IN
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
FOR YOUR SATURDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH HAS WEDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING THIS COOL
AIR WEDGE FROM THE MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 07/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THIS
COOL/MOIST LOW LEVEL WEDGE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SATURATED AND HIGHLY INVERTED PROFILE BELOW 800MB. BUKFIT SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SUBTLE LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW -10C...SUGGESTING THE LACK OF ICE AND HENCE LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR HETEROGENEOUS NUCLEATION.
HAVE ADDED THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FROM AROUND THE
PUNTA GORDA REGION...NORTHWARD TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING. LUCKILY...ALL FORECAST PROFILES SHOW THIS SATURATED
LAYER SLOWLY MODIFYING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD END
THE DRIZZLE AND ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES.
AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR FURTHER BACK INTO THE
WEDGE...THE LOW LEVELS ARE LESS AND LESS SATURATED AND ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THE CLOUDS ERODE. WHILE IT IS GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE...AM HOPEFULLY OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNNY BREAKS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-4. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S MAY BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC FOR THESE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER THE MARCH
SUN IS NOT ALL THAT WEAK ANYMORE...SO ANY SUN AT ALL IS GOING TO
BOOST READING UP FAIRLY FAST. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT MESS TOO MUCH WITH
THE INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS. EITHER WAY THEY WILL NOT BE OFF BY ALL
THAT MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS. DO ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SITES GOING EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR AFTER 18Z. THE SETUP FOR
LOW END MVFR (BELOW 2KFT) OR IFR CIGS TONIGHT LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
AND FOR NOW WILL NOT GO WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CIG OR VIS RESTRICTIONS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING
SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MODERATE EAST/NE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 58 78 65 / 10 0 10 10
FMY 79 64 83 65 / 10 10 30 10
GIF 73 57 78 63 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 74 60 80 63 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 71 52 78 60 / 10 0 10 10
SPG 71 61 77 66 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
144 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2015
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. H5
RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF/GFS AND ENSEMBLES
SHOWING VERY SIMILAR PICTURE AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH MAIN
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH SHORTWAVE FRIDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE NOW FAVORING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER OUR CWA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND SW
FLOW/GOOD WAA. MODELS SHOW POSITION OF LEE TROUGH NEAR KS/CO BORDER
WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAK. GOOD MIXING COULD STILL
PRODUCE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AT SOME LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A
WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
(WELL NORTH OF THE REGION) MOVES EAST. THIS COULD SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST DAYS STILL APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70. HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE SLIGHTLY VEERING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IN THE 14Z-19Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 19Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR SO BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
6KTS. SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW MID
AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
945 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST THRU THE ROCKIES BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE LEVEL
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MAIN WX
FEATURE WITH A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH AIDS IN INCREASING TEMPS WITH STRONG WAA ON SW FLOW.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD
W/ TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS INVERTED RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO AREA AS TROUGH PASSES. OVERALL SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE IN UPSLOPE REGION AS REGION UNDER
EASTERLY FETCH.
FOR AREA TEMPS THOUGH...925MB NUMBERS WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +15C
OVER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHS...AND +17C TO NEAR +21C
FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CAA WITH SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
GOING TO GIVE THE AREA HIGH TEMPS 5-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR SUN-MON...AND 60S TO NEAR 70S(WED)
FOR REST OF TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO START UP TO THE MID 30S BY END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE SLIGHTLY VEERING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IN THE 14Z-19Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 19Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR SO BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
6KTS. SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW MID
AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
420 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST THRU THE ROCKIES BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE LEVEL
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MAIN WX
FEATURE WITH A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH AIDS IN INCREASING TEMPS WITH STRONG WAA ON SW FLOW.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD
W/ TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS INVERTED RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO AREA AS TROUGH PASSES. OVERALL SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE IN UPSLOPE REGION AS REGION UNDER
EASTERLY FETCH.
FOR AREA TEMPS THOUGH...925MB NUMBERS WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +15C
OVER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHS...AND +17C TO NEAR +21C
FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CAA WITH SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
GOING TO GIVE THE AREA HIGH TEMPS 5-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR SUN-MON...AND 60S TO NEAR 70S(WED)
FOR REST OF TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO START UP TO THE MID 30S BY END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS UNDER 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 18Z-21Z. AFTER 21Z WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1254 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES
ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA
MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND
NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS
BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY
BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED
THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST
EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.
CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO
NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C
AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7
WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT
MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C.
MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3-
5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE
FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW.
IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT
H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY
PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH AND
EXPAND EASTWARD...CAUSING THE ERN TROF TO LIFT NE AND DIMINISH IN
AMPLITUDE. THESE CHANGES WILL CAUSE ARCTIC AIR TO RETEAT AND WILL
ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO MAKE INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE
AREA...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE CHANGING PATTERN
WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...CONTINUING THE DRY
SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. IN FACT...EXCLUDING SUN...MANY
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN NEXT WEEK. FARTHER DOWN
THE LINE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO
NORMAL TEMP REGIME MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BLO NORMAL (MORE OF THE GEM ENSEMBLES OUT AT DAY 16
ARE SHOWING REBUILDING OF A FAR WRN NAMERICE RIDGE). PATTERN STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUN...2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY SAT NIGHT...850MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14C
MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT NW FLOW LES. AS WINDS BACK WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND APPROACH OF LOW PRES TROF...THE LIGHT LES
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF TO THE SW IN SRN MN/NRN
IA...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FARTHER N MAY
SPREAD SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. AFTER ANY LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES END
SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE...
850MB TEMPS OF -11/-12C SHOULDN`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHT LES SUN EVENING.
RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO WARMING FOR MON/TUE.
PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -11C MON MORNING TO
RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH BETTER MOISTENING INDICATED TO THE N AND E OF HERE...
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. SO...ONLY
EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A
BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS WON`T DOMINATE EITHER
DAY. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF
SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON-TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AT SOME POINT MON/TUE. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL TOP 50F EITHER DAY...BUT MORE
LIKELY OVER THE SCNTRL ON TUE.
BIGGEST MODEL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY IS FOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO TO BE QUICKER...AND THUS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
THRU UPPER MI SOONER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS YESTERDAY. WILL BE A
TREND TO MONITOR THAT MAY AFFECT TUE TEMPS. FOR NOW...THIS MEANS A
COOLER WED IS NOW EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING NOSES SE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WED...RESULTING IN THE ADDITIVE CHILL OF LIGHT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI. TIGHT 850MB TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR (10C DIFFERENCE FROM SW UPPER
MI TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SUPPORT A DECENT SFC TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WED
WHILE LWR 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE N AND E. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO MAY GENERATE PATCHY
-SN/FLURRIES WITHIN THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT...BUT AT THIS POINT...
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
ALTHOUGH WAA GETS UNDERWAY AGAIN THU...IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL
OF COLUMN MOISTENING IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR DEEPER
INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR TO THE N OF UPPER MI. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FCST FOR THU.
12Z GFS CONTINUES ALONG THE LINES OF SOME PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING
WHAT WOULD LIKELY END UP AS A MIXED PCPN EVENT FRI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. UNTIL OTHER
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...WILL HOLD OFF FROM INCLUDING AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
EXPECT CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. VSBY MAY DROP NEAR IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH BUT SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN AOB MVFR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN CIGS MAY LIFT AOA MVFR
WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE
SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES
ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA
MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND
NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS
BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY
BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED
THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST
EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.
CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO
NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C
AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7
WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT
MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C.
MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3-
5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE
FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW.
IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT
H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY
PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH AND
EXPAND EASTWARD...CAUSING THE ERN TROF TO LIFT NE AND DIMINISH IN
AMPLITUDE. THESE CHANGES WILL CAUSE ARCTIC AIR TO RETEAT AND WILL
ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO MAKE INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE
AREA...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE CHANGING PATTERN
WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...CONTINUING THE DRY
SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. IN FACT...EXCLUDING SUN...MANY
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN NEXT WEEK. FARTHER DOWN
THE LINE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO
NORMAL TEMP REGIME MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BLO NORMAL (MORE OF THE GEM ENSEMBLES OUT AT DAY 16
ARE SHOWING REBUILDING OF A FAR WRN NAMERICE RIDGE). PATTERN STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUN...2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY SAT NIGHT...850MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14C
MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT NW FLOW LES. AS WINDS BACK WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND APPROACH OF LOW PRES TROF...THE LIGHT LES
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF TO THE SW IN SRN MN/NRN
IA...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FARTHER N MAY
SPREAD SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. AFTER ANY LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES END
SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE...
850MB TEMPS OF -11/-12C SHOULDN`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHT LES SUN EVENING.
RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO WARMING FOR MON/TUE.
PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -11C MON MORNING TO
RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH BETTER MOISTENING INDICATED TO THE N AND E OF HERE...
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. SO...ONLY
EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A
BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS WON`T DOMINATE EITHER
DAY. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF
SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON-TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AT SOME POINT MON/TUE. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL TOP 50F EITHER DAY...BUT MORE
LIKELY OVER THE SCNTRL ON TUE.
BIGGEST MODEL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY IS FOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO TO BE QUICKER...AND THUS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
THRU UPPER MI SOONER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS YESTERDAY. WILL BE A
TREND TO MONITOR THAT MAY AFFECT TUE TEMPS. FOR NOW...THIS MEANS A
COOLER WED IS NOW EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING NOSES SE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WED...RESULTING IN THE ADDITIVE CHILL OF LIGHT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI. TIGHT 850MB TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR (10C DIFFERENCE FROM SW UPPER
MI TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SUPPORT A DECENT SFC TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WED
WHILE LWR 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE N AND E. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO MAY GENERATE PATCHY
-SN/FLURRIES WITHIN THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT...BUT AT THIS POINT...
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
ALTHOUGH WAA GETS UNDERWAY AGAIN THU...IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL
OF COLUMN MOISTENING IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR DEEPER
INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR TO THE N OF UPPER MI. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FCST FOR THU.
12Z GFS CONTINUES ALONG THE LINES OF SOME PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING
WHAT WOULD LIKELY END UP AS A MIXED PCPN EVENT FRI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. UNTIL OTHER
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...WILL HOLD OFF FROM INCLUDING AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
EXPECT CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. VSBY MAY DROP AS LOW AS IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE
SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
229 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S EXPECT THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AS THE EVENING WARNED ON. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR THE VERY SHORT
TERM POPS AND THIS FOCUSES THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL ONLY ANTICIPATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PRECIP OVERALL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS
NO SNOW PACK. A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE HIGHER/WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
ALSO LOWERED GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS THESE 3 DAYS AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WE DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT/QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
PRODUCES NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SOUTHWEST AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL. LOW CONFIDENCE
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAIN/SNOW WILL IMPACT
VSBYS. DRY AND VFR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH GENERATING THE WEAK QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND LIMITED THE POPS NORTH AND FOCUSED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMER THAN EARLIER THOUGH TODAY SO RAISED
HIGH TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE SNOW FREE AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXING NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES A
BIT INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOLLOWING THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS HAVE DELAYED INITIAL LOW POPS
WEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MADE SOME SKY COVER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY MVFR CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND
EAST TO JAMESTOWN. THEN NORTH FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. GOOD BIT OF CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF HERE SO LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING THEN
BROUGHT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE LAST TWO ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE INDICATED A CONSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 20 UTC AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN
MONITOR. MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF THIS TREND HOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DISTINCT
SLUG OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE -2C TO -4C COLD POCKET ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...THE
NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. THEN AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW
WORKING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA...WITH A 90KT-100KT JET STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RESIDE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW POSITION AND COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET. WEAKER JET DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SHIFTS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NOT VERY OFTEN YOU GET A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THIS IS THE CASE TODAY. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE
DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT QPF IF NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION PRODUCES ONLY MINIMAL BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SOUTHWEST AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL. LOW CONFIDENCE
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAIN/SNOW WILL IMPACT
VSBYS. DRY AND VFR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXING NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES A
BIT INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOLLOWING THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS HAVE DELAYED INITIAL LOW POPS
WEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MADE SOME SKY COVER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY MVFR CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND
EAST TO JAMESTOWN. THEN NORTH FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. GOOD BIT OF CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF HERE SO LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING THEN
BROUGHT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE LAST TWO ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE INDICATED A CONSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 20 UTC AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN
MONITOR. MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF THIS TREND HOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DISTINCT
SLUG OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE -2C TO -4C COLD POCKET ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...THE
NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. THEN AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW
WORKING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA...WITH A 90KT-100KT JET STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RESIDE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW POSITION AND COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET. WEAKER JET DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SHIFTS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NOT VERY OFTEN YOU GET A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THIS IS THE CASE TODAY. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE
DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT QPF IF NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION PRODUCES ONLY MINIMAL BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT KJMS AND KDIK THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE
AT KDIK BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING TO MVFR STATUS AT KMOT/KBIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VCSH
WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KDIK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. A CLEARING SKY WILL INITIATE AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MADE SOME SKY COVER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY MVFR CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM DICKINSON TO JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND
EAST TO JAMESTOWN. THEN NORTH FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. GOOD BIT OF CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF HERE SO LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING THEN
BROUGHT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE LAST TWO ITERATIONS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE INDICATED A CONSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 20 UTC AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN
MONITOR. MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF THIS TREND HOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DISTINCT
SLUG OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE -2C TO -4C COLD POCKET ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW...THE
NAM12/RAP13 KEEP THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. THEN AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW
WORKING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALBERTA...WITH A 90KT-100KT JET STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO MANITOBA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RESIDE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW POSITION AND COINCIDING WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET. WEAKER JET DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SHIFTS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NOT VERY OFTEN YOU GET A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THIS IS THE CASE TODAY. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WE
DO GET A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT QPF IF NEGLIGIBLE AND A MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION PRODUCES ONLY MINIMAL BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT KJMS AND KDIK THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE
AT KDIK BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR THROUGH 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING TO MVFR STATUS AT KMOT/KBIS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VCSH
WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KDIK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH. A CLEARING SKY WILL INITIATE AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
138 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH THEN AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS DONE TO SKY GRIDS ALLOWING FOR MORE CLEARING THAN
ANTICIPATED. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
930 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS HAVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY AFTER VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A
CURIOUS AREA OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE SNOW FIELDS OF MAINLY CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL HAS SUDDENLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT...A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
EFFECT OF ALL THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT IS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...NO NEW RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES COMPLIMENTS OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
PACK WILL FIGHT A LOSING BATTLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CROSS SAT NT...INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. SREF IS AS HIGH AS
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. DID NOT BUY THIS BUT
LEFT THE LOW CHANCE IN PER DEFERENCE TO IT...THOUGH NOT CERTAIN WE
CAN QUITE STAND SOMETHING UP.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO BE SATURATED BELOW INVERSION IN A
THICK ENOUGH LAYER FOR CLOUD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW
QPF OUTPUT IS SUSPECT. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY NT.
CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHIFTS N OF THE AREA ON
MON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FAR S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM WAVE PASSES TO THE S. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND SRN STREAM WAVE MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE TUG FORK...MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT LOWS RAISED A BIT...TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN NTS...AND THE SNOW
MELT RATE MAY SLOWLY INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CONTROLLED BY SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH ON THE
FIRST ONE...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS BY
AROUND 12 HOURS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND...HAVE BROUGHT SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE RAIN. COULD GET SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS DURING THE TIME THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING SO WILL NOT PUT IT INTO HWO JUST YET. JUST GET BRUSHED BY
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK
THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS OUR WAY. WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FREEZING FOG OUT OF THE OH RIVER TO AFFECT HTS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CODED A TEMPO WITH 2SM FOR HTS FROM 08-10Z.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH LIGHT TO CALM FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/07/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
114 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR...KEPT FORECAST SAME FOR
EVENING UPDATE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND
WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH
LOW LEVEL RH LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING
IN WHICH THE GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS
TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS (KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS
AND CURRENT SNOW COVER. THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE
IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN
MORE SO WITH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO HAVE SPEEDS CONTINUE AROUND 10-12KT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE SSW. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK 9-12KFT WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SHIFT EAST IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE DUE TO SNOW PACK BUT
THIS HAS NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING INTO ANY STRATUS DECK THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WEAK 925 COLD ADVECTION COULD PUSH ENOUGH OVERTURNING IN
MOIST LOW LEVELS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORN TO PERMIT STRATUS DECK TO
FORM. ATTM...LEFT A SCT DECK AROUND 1500FT TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY BUT THINK THAT WEAK CAA AT H9 WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
MATERIALIZE A CIG.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1153 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
OUT THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN LATER. ADJUSTED MOST AREAS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING TO HIT MIN TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE 00Z NAM WAS SHOWING. 18Z
GFS WAS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN CHANCES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY
BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOW MELT. PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE TIMING. MVFR
CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND CEILINGS
WILL PROBABLY LOWER FIRST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY THEN SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WILL USE A TEMPO FOR IFR/MVFR SNOW
AT KERI BUT WILL JUST MENTION "VICINITY" ELSEWHERE NE OH/NW PA UNTIL
WE GET GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1007 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
OUT THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN LATER. ADJUSTED MOST AREAS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING TO HIT MIN TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE 00Z NAM WAS SHOWING. 18Z
GFS WAS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN CHANCES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY
BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOW MELT. PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
A MVFR CEILING WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE TIMING...IT COULD BE AS EARLY AS
PRE DAWN SATURDAY OR PERHAPS TAKE AS LONG AS MIDDAY SATURDAY. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY BUT WILL JUST MENTION "VICINITY" FOR
THE TIME BEING UNTIL WE GET GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
914 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH THEN AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS HAVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY AFTER VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A
CURIOUS AREA OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE SNOW FIELDS OF MAINLY CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL HAS SUDDENLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT...A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
EFFECT OF ALL THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT IS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...NO NEW RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES COMPLIMENTS OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
PACK WILL FIGHT A LOSING BATTLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CROSS SAT NT...INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. SREF IS AS HIGH AS
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. DID NOT BUY THIS BUT
LEFT THE LOW CHANCE IN PER DEFERENCE TO IT...THOUGH NOT CERTAIN WE
CAN QUITE STAND SOMETHING UP.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO BE SATURATED BELOW INVERSION IN A
THICK ENOUGH LAYER FOR CLOUD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW
QPF OUTPUT IS SUSPECT. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY NT.
CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHIFTS N OF THE AREA ON
MON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FAR S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM WAVE PASSES TO THE S. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND SRN STREAM WAVE MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE TUG FORK...MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT LOWS RAISED A BIT...TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN NTS...AND THE SNOW
MELT RATE MAY SLOWLY INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CONTROLLED BY SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH ON THE
FIRST ONE...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS BY
AROUND 12 HOURS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND...HAVE BROUGHT SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE RAIN. COULD GET SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS DURING THE TIME THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING SO WILL NOT PUT IT INTO HWO JUST YET. JUST GET BRUSHED BY
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK
THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS OUR WAY. WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LOCAL MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WV...AFFECTING TAF SITES KPKB...POSSIBLY INTO KCKB. THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/07/15
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
908 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR...KEPT FORECAST SAME FOR
EVENING UPDATE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND
WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH
LOW LEVEL RH LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING
IN WHICH THE GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS
TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS (KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS
AND CURRENT SNOW COVER. THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE
IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN
MORE SO WITH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH.
A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY
CMH LCK AND ILN. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WENT WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT CVG AND LUK. BACKED OFF ON LOWERED CEILINGS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AND LATEST DRIER
MODEL TRENDS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UP AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
730 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
OUT THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN LATER. ADJUSTED MOST AREAS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING TO HIT MIN TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY
BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOW MELT. PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
A MVFR CEILING WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE TIMING...IT COULD BE AS EARLY AS
PRE DAWN SATURDAY OR PERHAPS TAKE AS LONG AS MIDDAY SATURDAY. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY BUT WILL JUST MENTION "VICINITY" FOR
THE TIME BEING UNTIL WE GET GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD
KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND WITH A DEEP SNOW
PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL RH
LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING IN WHICH THE
GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY
TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS
(KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND CURRENT SNOW COVER.
THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE
COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN MORE SO WITH SNOW
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH.
A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY
CMH LCK AND ILN. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WENT WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT CVG AND LUK. BACKED OFF ON LOWERED CEILINGS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AND LATEST DRIER
MODEL TRENDS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UP AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TOPPING 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
635 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH THEN AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS HAVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...THAT IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SATURDAY AFTER VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A
CURIOUS AREA OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE SNOW FIELDS OF MAINLY CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL HAS SUDDENLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE
CAN BE EXPECTED. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS TRAVERSING THE AREA TONIGHT...A VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
EFFECT OF ALL THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT IS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...NO NEW RECORD
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...CLOUDS REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES COMPLIMENTS OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MANY LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
PACK WILL FIGHT A LOSING BATTLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CROSS SAT NT...INTRODUCING
SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. SREF IS AS HIGH AS
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. DID NOT BUY THIS BUT
LEFT THE LOW CHANCE IN PER DEFERENCE TO IT...THOUGH NOT CERTAIN WE
CAN QUITE STAND SOMETHING UP.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO BE SATURATED BELOW INVERSION IN A
THICK ENOUGH LAYER FOR CLOUD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW
QPF OUTPUT IS SUSPECT. DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS
INTO SUNDAY NT.
CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHIFTS N OF THE AREA ON
MON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FAR S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM WAVE PASSES TO THE S. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND SRN STREAM WAVE MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE TUG FORK...MON AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS A DRY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT LOWS RAISED A BIT...TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ROUGHLY SRN HALF OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN NTS...AND THE SNOW
MELT RATE MAY SLOWLY INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CONTROLLED BY SEVERAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH ON THE
FIRST ONE...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS BY
AROUND 12 HOURS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD TREND...HAVE BROUGHT SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE RAIN. COULD GET SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS DURING THE TIME THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING SO WILL NOT PUT IT INTO HWO JUST YET. JUST GET BRUSHED BY
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK
THIS WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HEADS OUR WAY. WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...BLENDED NEW WPC GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND
LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LOCAL MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WV...AFFECTING TAF SITES KPKB...POSSIBLY INTO KCKB. THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
849 PM PST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN. AROUND MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING THAT A MARINE STRATUS DECK MIGHT TRY TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WHICH SHOW AN OVERCAST
DECK NOW OVER KONP AND KTMK. IT IS TOUGH TO SEE EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING
ON DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE ON SATELLITE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE LATEST FCST MODELS
INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND THE RAP MODEL ARE INDICATING THAT THE
STRATUS MAY SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE THEN
INDICATING THAT THE CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH BACK OFFSHORE EARLY
SAT MORNING...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT OFFSHORE DRIFT THAT MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS EARLY SAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WASHINGTON.
THEN EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY
SAT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND HIGH 50S OR LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. PYLE
.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
JUST OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED THE REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE ON TURNING THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND
SAT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN.
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WA AND VANCOUVER ISLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SINK S SOME MON AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FLATTENS IT. THIS WILL TURN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW LIGHTLY ONSHORE ACROSS AT LEAST THE N PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MON MODERATING TEMPS A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GFS
AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST MON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
AND SLIDE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO
MORE NORMAL MARCH WEATHER AND A RETURN OF SOME PRECIPITATION. WHILE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH THE PRECISE HANDLING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE...THIS SEEMS TO BE A HIGH POP AND LOW-MODERATE QPF EVENT
WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH AT MOST. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WARM SO WHILE SNOW LEVELS
MAY FALL ENOUGH TO ADD SOME SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER CASCADE
LOCATIONS...EXPECT ONLY RAIN BELOW AROUND 6000 FT OR SO AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ADDITION TO THE MEAGER CASCADE SNOWPACK THIS WINTER.
CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME IFR STRATUS ON PARTS OF THE COAST INTO EARLY SAT. PATCHY
FOG RETURNS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 08Z THROUGH
ABOUT 16Z SAT...PRIMARILY IMPACTING KEUG. SOME LOCAL FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS. /27
&&
.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 15 TO 20
KT GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PAC MON DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA
AND S OREGON COAST TUE AND WED.
SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE 2 OR 3
FOOT COMPONENTS THROUGH TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM THE WNW AND SSW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOWER SEAS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY...AND NOW SHOWS 8 TO 10 FEET WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE TEENS IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
449 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT NEW ZONES.
DID EXTEND THE SNOW SHOWERS OUT TO 01Z. WOULD THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE THE SUN SETS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE TAFS. MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE FOR THE 21Z PACKAGE.
VERY FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. NOW EXPECT THESE TO MOVE
INTO MDT AND LNS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NWRN MOUNTAINS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR BUT WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS.
MON-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 1 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS
THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
THIS READING BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE AS WELL. THE OLD
RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 8 DEGREES SET IN 1890.
IT WAS JUST YESTERDAY THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES
WAS RECORDED. PRIOR TO THIS...THE PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH WAS 7 DEGREES
SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
CLIMATE...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAST...GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CALIF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVER-SO-SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND PSBLY THE TN VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
SOURCE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF STORMINESS IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW...FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SEPARATING COLD
AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS FEATURE MINOR
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION.
BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL
FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES
THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...LITTLE FOCUS WILL EXIST FOR
SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NWRN MOUNTAINS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR BUT WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS.
MON-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE
COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE
PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET
IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE
THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD
LOW WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS
BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
106 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/CLIPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GR LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SHOWERS STAYING SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RADAR SHOWS DISORGANIZED CHUNKS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
OUT OF WESTERN PA...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVEN BEING OBSERVED
DOWN IN THE LANCASTER-YORK AREAS. NO REAL CHANGE IN ACCUMULATION
EXPECTATIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE GROUND TO GET COATED
BEING OVER MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES TONIGHT
AND TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 06Z...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP BKN STRATUS WEST
AND NORTH WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TO CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION...TONIGHT`S TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S FRIGID LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LIFT AND PULL EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAURELS
UP TO THE NY BORDER COUNTIES.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL STILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BENEATH FAST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...FRONTAL WAVES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER
AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS
FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. GENERALLY
THE SPREAD IS MINIMAL. THE MOST DISCERNIBLE NORTHERN STREAM H5
S/WV ENERGY AND WEAK SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS FROM
LATER SAT THRU SUNDAY...BUT WITH SYSTEMS BEING QUITE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOISTURE REMAINING QUITE LIMITED WITH NO GULF INFLOW..WATER
EQUIVALENTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODEL QPFS ARE GENERALLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS BELOW 0.25 INCH AND
48HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS
ENDING 00Z TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND GRADUALLY WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE INCLUDE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...SRN PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF
THE BAHAMAS. GEFS AND NAEFS SHOW A BROADER VERSION OF THIS PATTERN
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM
THE WRN ATLC NWWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN/CNTRL CONUS INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. ONE TREND THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TROUGH INTO
CONFLUENT FLOW/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE MID ATLC ON
TUESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A NWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN FIELD
WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE
RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF
TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NWRN MOUNTAINS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR BUT WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR CENTRAL AND
SERN AREAS.
MON-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE
COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE
PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET
IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE
THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD
LOW WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS
BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
606 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN FAVORS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
NO SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCT-BKN CIRRUS OVR CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING IN REGION OF WAA
ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS INTO THE NW MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS. POSITION OF SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA WILL FAVOR THAT AREA FOR
THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL. IDEAL RAD COOLING SCENARIO
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WITH CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND MAY RESULT
IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD COLD. FURTHER WEST...MINS LIKELY TO BE
REACHED ARND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...JUST BEFORE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SW BREEZE DEVELOP. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD
LOWS BTWN 5-10F. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE SOME NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS DIPPING TO BTWN ZERO AND -5F...AS SUGGESTED BY
LATEST RAP OUTPUT AND LATE AFTN DWPTS ARND ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH A BIT OF LGT SNOW/FLURRIES BY
AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. HIGHEST /CATEGORICAL/ POPS ARE PLACED
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM SW FLOW WILL PLAY
A ROLE IN SOME LGT ACCUMS. MDL BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS A COATING TO
AN INCH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NY BORDER...WITH PROBABLY NOTHING
SOUTH OF I-80.
SATURDAY WILL START A TEMPERATURE MODERATING TREND THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOP FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND REACH THE 30S VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BENEATH FAST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...FRONTAL WAVES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SEPARATING COLD AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND MILDER
AIR OVER THE MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS
FEATURE MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE GIVEN FAST FLOW WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. GENERALLY
THE SPREAD IS MINIMAL. THE MOST DISCERNIBLE NORTHERN STREAM H5
S/WV ENERGY AND WEAK SFC CLIPPER TYPE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS FROM
LATER SAT THRU SUNDAY...BUT WITH SYSTEMS BEING QUITE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOISTURE REMAINING QUITE LIMITED WITH NO GULF INFLOW..WATER
EQUIVALENTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODEL QPFS ARE GENERALLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS BELOW 0.25 INCH AND
48HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS
ENDING 00Z TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND GRADUALLY WARMER BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE INCLUDE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...SRN PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE E OF
THE BAHAMAS. GEFS AND NAEFS SHOW A BROADER VERSION OF THIS PATTERN
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM
THE WRN ATLC NWWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN/CNTRL CONUS INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE
UPSIDE AND REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO
MIDWEEK. ONE TREND THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TROUGH INTO
CONFLUENT FLOW/UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE MID ATLC ON
TUESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A NWD SHIFT IN THE PCPN FIELD
WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH. WILL THE COLD AIR ON THE
RETREAT TIMING MAY BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PTYPES. PLENTY OF
TIME TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES THIS IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRADFORD/KBFD WHERE AN MVFR CEILING IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS NORTH.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT HARRISBURG IS THE
COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE
PREVIOUS COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES SET
IN 1984 AND 1900. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 0 DEGREES ALSO BROKE
THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD
LOW WAS 7 DEGREES SET IN 1901. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS
BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1230 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM...VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR THE CWFA...AS
DRY HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPS ARE ABOUT ON TRACK TO REACH
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF NORMAL THIS AFTN UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT...WEAK SFC HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UNDER CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW. SHUD BE ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEG WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
BRING SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...ESP MID-LATE AFTN. BUT
OTHERWISE...NEAR PICTURE PERFECT DAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
50S TO LWR 60S IN THE MTNS AND GENERALLY UPR 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR TODAY WITH SW WINDS (W TO
NW AT KAVL) INCREASING TO ABT 8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE SEEN SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...STILL VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND BECOME LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
948 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...TEMPS OFF TO A SLOW START FROM CHILLY MORNING
LOWS...BUT STILL EXPECT NICE RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS
AFTN. FCST IS ON TRACK.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR TODAY WITH SW WINDS (W TO
NW AT KAVL) INCREASING TO ABT 8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE SEEN SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...STILL VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND BECOME LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR TODAY WITH SW WINDS (W TO
NW AT KAVL) INCREASING TO ABT 8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE SEEN SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...STILL VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND BECOME LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW (W TO NW AT KAVL) AROUND
8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...SOME SPOTS 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMO THIS
MORNING...DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WITHIN THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. DEVELOPING LLVL SW FLOW ALONG WITH
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND THE EARLY MARCH NORMAL. MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS
DEPICT AN INFLUX OF HIGH LVL RH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION THRU SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER WV/VA...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POPS. ON SWLY WINDS...MAX TEMPS WILL INCH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S IN MTN
VALLEYS.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THRU MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO WILL INITIATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WRN GULF REGION OVER AN EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. QPF RESPONSE FROM THE MODELS IS SEEN EARLY MON...APPARENTLY
DUE TO A JET STREAK PRESENT OVER MARYLAND CREATING DIVERGENCE OVER
OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDLEVEL WAA. WHILE THIS FEATURE DOES
APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW-END POPS/QPF...SFC TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
CHILLY OVER THE MTNS. PROFILES INDICATE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
RESULT AT THE SFC. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WNC MTNS...BUT SOME PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER THAT SNOWFLAKES MIGHT
NOT SURVIVE TO THE SFC. ONLY A MINIMAL MENTION OF SNOW HAS THUS BEEN
MADE.
THE MAIN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH MON AND ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS TUE. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED
ACRS THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
/00Z WED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ACRS
THE CWFA. GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
SHOT OF UPPER DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLAY TUE MRNG WITH THE REGION
AGAIN IN THE RR QUAD OF A JET STREAK. AT THE PRESENT TIME A BLEND
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE LOOKS FINE...AND THE DRY WEATHER
OVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW SOILS TO GAIN CAPACITY ENOUGH THAT
FLOODING WOULD BE UNLIKELY EVEN IF THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE QPF VERIFIED.
MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO MON BUT DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED BY THE PRECIP GOING INTO TUE. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAXES TUE BEING A FEW BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT
CONDITIONS TUE WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A WEDGE...WITH NELY WINDS
AFFORDED BY OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...WARM FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES QUEBEC AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE NERN CONUS. THE GFS DEPICTS THE FRONT BEING PUSHED BACK
SOUTH LATER WED AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH. ON THE 06/12Z EC...A MORE MURKY
TRANSITION IS DEPICTED IN WHICH THE FRONT JUST WASHES OUT OVER THE
AREA...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP EARLY WED. HOWEVER IT IS NOTABLE THAT
BOTH MODELS REACTIVATE THE FRONT ON THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...DEVELOPING CAD BY THU NIGHT AS THAT SFC
HIGH MOVES EWD AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS THUS HOW MUCH OF A LULL WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO
WAVES OF PRECIP. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE THU...PEAKING AT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HELD WARMER BY CLOUD COVER WHILE MAX TEMPS TREND COOLER EACH
DAY...BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE WEDGE ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW (W TO NW AT KAVL) AROUND
8 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP TO CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH PRECIPITATION NOT IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS ARE ADVISED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS WHEN PLANNING ANY BURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
500 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM PREDAWN HOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST AREA ENJOYING AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. LINGERING RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS STILL HAVE A LOCK ON A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DECENT AMOUNT OF FORCING
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STRONGEST
MID LAYER PV-ADVECTION FORCED LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A BAND OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. MODELS STILL
VACILLATING WITH QPF PLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. EITHER WAY...THE SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO A TRACE TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER
20S.
ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN INTO THE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE GENERAL WARM
SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW WARM/DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE PLAINS INTO OUR AREA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S ON TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE MODELS TRY TO BUILD A
SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WOULD DRAW SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM CANADA. THIS IN TURN WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SOME...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. PLAN ON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 40 TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY...COOLING INTO THE 40S ON
SATURDAY.
OF COURSE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES COMES MELTING OF SNOW AND THE
NEED TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO SPIN SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA SUN
MORNING...WITH SOME 850-700 MB QG CONVERGENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LEADING IT IN. FAIRLY GOOD SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INDICATED VIA THE NAM12...MOSTLY FROM 09-18Z
SUN...AND CONFINED TO IA. RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO
THE DEEPER SATURATION ALSO HOLDING ACROSS IA. EXPECT AREAS OF -SN
THERE AS A RESULT...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THESE CHANCES WILL WORK IS IN
QUESTION. SOUNDINGS AT KRST/KLSE AREN/T GIVING CLEAR-CUT
ANSWERS...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION AND SOME
LIFT AROUND 12Z FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WITH -SN...WHILE THE GFS
BUILDS SOME SATURATION BUT NOT CLEAR CIGS WOULD GO MVFR NOR WOULD
-SN BE LIKELY. MEANWHILE THE RAP LEANS TOWARD MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT WOULD KEEP -SN SOUTH. WILL
TREND THE FORECAST THIS WAY. AT THE MOMENT...IF ANY -SN DID
FALL...PROBABLY MORE FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL VSBY IMPACT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. 07.00Z MODEL SUITE STILL STRUGGLING WITH TEMPERATURES
SHOWING VASTLY DIFFERENT THERMAL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH...LEANING
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE EXTREMES GIVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
SOUTHEAST ND WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN WI WITH WEAK/SHALLOW
LIFT AND A DRIER AIR MASS FARTHER SOUTH LIMITING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES GIVEN WARM START TO THE DAY. IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH GIVEN AROUND 25 KTS
IN THE NEAR SURFACE MIXED LAYER.
THE FORECAST AREA GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FIRST MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH WARM FRONTAL SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SECOND EJECTS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NE INTO NORTHERN MO. 07.00Z
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...DROPPED POPS FOR ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHEAST IA. IF ANY
ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING
AT BEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
WHAT LITTLE SNOW DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PERSIST REGION-WIDE THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE A FEW
MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
IN GENERAL...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MN/IA BORDER AND THEN STALLS IT OUT IN THIS AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF ONLY BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS EASILY EXCEEDS 20
DEGREES FOR MID-WEEK. LOOKING AT THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HOWEVER
SHOWS MORE MEMBERS FAVORING THE WARMER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN THIS
WAY WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
BY THURSDAY...WESTERN CONUS 500 HPA RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOCATION VARIATIONS IN THE STALLED
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE GFS KEEPS THE WARMEST AIR
WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERSELY..THE ECMWF BRINGS A
NOSE OF +12 TO +15 CELSIUS AT 925 HPA AS CLOSE AS SOUTHWEST MN.
WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS WHAT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY COULD DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT MUCH.
ALL SAID...SPRING WILL BE IN FULL FORCE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL MELT A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IF NOT
THE ENTIRE THING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH WATER
LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MELTING COULD ALSO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES. RAP GENERATES STEEP LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS THINK THAT IS BEING OVER DONE...SO
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE