Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1030 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED TO UPGRADE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. JET INDUCED BANDED SNOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY AND STREAK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR IS TOO SHALLOW AND LIFT IS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. STARTING TO
SEE EVIDENCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN CDOT
CAMS ALONG I-25...AND SUSPECT THIS IS ALSO HAPPENING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER...THOUGH NETWORK OF CAMERAS AND SFC OBS MUCH MORE
SPARSE DOWN THAT WAY. THINGS GETTING PRETTY ICY IN THE PUEBLO
AREA...ON SIDEWALKS AND COLD SURFACES...AND THINK UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL.
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE SECONDARY SURGE OF THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST CO
AFTER 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CO. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE AS
DIV-Q FIELDS SHOW MAIN FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND WILL BE
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROF AXIS...AND SECONDARY WAVE
STAYS MAINLY UP TO THE NORTH. STILL...AS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEEPENS
BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WETS AND
SANGRES SHOULD FAIR WELL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY KEEPING ADVISORIES UP.
AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF ICY ROADS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT NORTHERN
PORTIONS (SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PERHAPS PUEBLO COUNTIES) MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THAT...BUT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AS NEW RUNS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND PUEBLO AND PUEBLO WEST.
RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD
ENOUGH LAYER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF SNOW BAND TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...WE COULD GET SOME SEEDER
FEEDER EFFECTS WHICH WILL QUICKLY CONVERT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. RAP INDICATES TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP WITHIN THE SATURATED
LAYER TO -10C OR COLDER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONCE THE
SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES IN...IT WILL BE AN ABRUPT CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. THEREFORE...JUST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE
THIS EVENING TO CONTEND WITH. MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADE FOR PUEBLO COUNTY ASSOC WITH ICING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS FREMONT AND
TELLER COUNTY. BOTH HRRR AND RAP13 DEPICT THE BAND OF SNOW OUT
THERE NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOC
WITH UPGLIDE. THIS BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HAD TO MAKE A CORRECTION TO THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
...SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALONG THE S MTNS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR THESE REGIONS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN I HAVE IS OVER FAR SE PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STATE OF CO WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
OCCURRING OVER BACA COUNTY. FOR NOW....HAVE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THIS REGION AND WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEAVY SNOW.
I HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNINGS FOR THE C MTNS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
SAN JUANS...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW THIS
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.
COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THE 2NDRY URGE WILL EVEN
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS 2NDRY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 3 AM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW...
RUSH HOUR IS GOING TO BE A MESS OVER THE REGION. STEADY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND ADJ MTNS AFTER
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH WINDCHILLS RANGING BETWEEN +5F
AND -10F ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES THE SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION/RATON MESA REGION UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUM SNOW LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.
OVERALL...
I EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS...AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SNOW BAND. THE S MTNS SHOULD SEE 4 TO 10
INCH AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORABLE...THEN
WE COULD SEE DEEPER AMOUNTS OF FLUFF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO IT LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH WED EVE.
THEREFORE...STAGGERED THE POPS TO SHOW THEM FINALLY DIMINISHING
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE IN WITH
DOWNWARD FORCING HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 5 TO -10 DEG RANGE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US AND HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS A HINT OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR THE 30S ON
THU...40S FRI AND SAT...THEN 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR SUN THROUGH
TUE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL. THIS SNOW
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
KCOS...LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY 11Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY AS THE FRONT PASSES.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KPUB...FREEZING DRIZZLE...FOG AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES...AND POSSIBLY AREA
RUNWAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z WITH LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ083-
085>088-094-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
905 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED TO UPGRADE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. JET INDUCED BANDED SNOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY AND STREAK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR IS TOO SHALLOW AND LIFT IS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. STARTING TO
SEE EVIDENCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN CDOT
CAMS ALONG I-25...AND SUSPECT THIS IS ALSO HAPPENING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER...THOUGH NETWORK OF CAMERAS AND SFC OBS MUCH MORE
SPARSE DOWN THAT WAY. THINGS GETTING PRETTY ICY IN THE PUEBLO
AREA...ON SIDEWALKS AND COLD SURFACES...AND THINK UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL.
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE SECONDARY SURGE OF THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST CO
AFTER 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CO. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE AS
DIV-Q FIELDS SHOW MAIN FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND WILL BE
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROF AXIS...AND SECONDARY WAVE
STAYS MAINLY UP TO THE NORTH. STILL...AS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEEPENS
BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WETS AND
SANGRES SHOULD FAIR WELL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY KEEPING ADVISORIES UP.
AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF ICY ROADS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT NORTHERN
PORTIONS (SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PERHAPS PUEBLO COUNTIES) MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THAT...BUT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AS NEW RUNS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND PUEBLO AND PUEBLO WEST.
RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD
ENOUGH LAYER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF SNOW BAND TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...WE COULD GET SOME SEEDER
FEEDER EFFECTS WHICH WILL QUICKLY CONVERT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. RAP INDICATES TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP WITHIN THE SATURATED
LAYER TO -10C OR COLDER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONCE THE
SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES IN...IT WILL BE AN ABRUPT CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. THEREFORE...JUST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE
THIS EVENING TO CONTEND WITH. MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADE FOR PUEBLO COUNTY ASSOC WITH ICING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS FREMONT AND
TELLER COUNTY. BOTH HRRR AND RAP13 DEPICT THE BAND OF SNOW OUT
THERE NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOC
WITH UPGLIDE. THIS BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HAD TO MAKE A CORRECTION TO THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
...SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALONG THE S MTNS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR THESE REGIONS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN I HAVE IS OVER FAR SE PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STATE OF CO WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
OCCURRING OVER BACA COUNTY. FOR NOW....HAVE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THIS REGION AND WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEAVY SNOW.
I HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNINGS FOR THE C MTNS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
SAN JUANS...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW THIS
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.
COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THE 2NDRY URGE WILL EVEN
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS 2NDRY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 3 AM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW...
RUSH HOUR IS GOING TO BE A MESS OVER THE REGION. STEADY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND ADJ MTNS AFTER
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH WINDCHILLS RANGING BETWEEN +5F
AND -10F ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES THE SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION/RATON MESA REGION UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUM SNOW LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.
OVERALL...
I EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS...AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SNOW BAND. THE S MTNS SHOULD SEE 4 TO 10
INCH AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORABLE...THEN
WE COULD SEE DEEPER AMOUNTS OF FLUFF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO IT LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH WED EVE.
THEREFORE...STAGGERED THE POPS TO SHOW THEM FINALLY DIMINISHING
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE IN WITH
DOWNWARD FORCING HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 5 TO -10 DEG RANGE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US AND HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS A HINT OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR THE 30S ON
THU...40S FRI AND SAT...THEN 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR SUN THROUGH
TUE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB
AND LAST INTO TOMORROW. THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR BOTH TAF SITES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN AT KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AT
PUEBLO LATER TONIGHT.
KALS...VFR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH COULD BRING OCNL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ083-
085>088-094-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.
545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.
OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.
THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK..
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.
MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.
THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.
THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.
WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.
THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK..
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.
MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.
THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.
THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.
WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...GAINES/DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.
THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 5P.
OUTLOOK..
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.
MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.
THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.
THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.
WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/DRAG 438
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE... 438
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
436 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ORLANDO TODAY...
CURRENT-TODAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.
PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE HRRR LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEING PUSHED ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH AND PORT
CANAVERAL AND INLAND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE. SOUTHERLY WIND
AND LESS CLOUD COVER INLAND HIGHS IN MID 80S AND REACHING THE
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. HIGHS AT THE COAST LOW AND MID
80S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE OCEAN STAYS AROUND.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA RETREATS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREAS AND
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH.
THU...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH WARM S/SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE WILL BE A SMALL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LOOKS QUITE DRY SO
RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING PEAK HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO TODAY...STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHY OF ANY RECORDS. IF
THERE IS MORE SFC HEATING THAN EXPECTED...DAYTONA COULD REACH
THEIR RECORD HIGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
THU NIGHT...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENT FL. A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OF COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL
20 POP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LATE.
FRI...LOW CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE
SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL FOR DAB/LEE WITH HIGHS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OUR FORECAST OF LOWER 70S
FOR ORLANDO METRO MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND THIS IS ALREADY 5 DEGREES
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THERE IS THE BEST (30 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SAT-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
FL SAT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN
NEAR CENT FL. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND BE MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND BUT NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 60S BOTH SAT-SUN ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTH FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MIST AND FOG THROUGH 14Z THEN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENTLY BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
12 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO GEORGIA...ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.
THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY FLOW THU 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS SOUTH FL FRI. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH WINDS LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15 KNOTS THU NIGHT BUT A STRONGER PRES GRAD WILL BRING NEAR
20 KNOTS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. SO
SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN
INCREASE IN SE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
ORLANDO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO EQUAL OR BREAK THEIR RECORD TODAY.
DAB 4-MAR 88 1953
MCO 4-MAR 88 1989
MLB 4-MAR 87 1982
VRB 4-MAR 89 2001
DAB 5-MAR 87 1985
MCO 5-MAR 90 1929
MLB 5-MAR 88 1982
VRB 5-MAR 89 2003
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 64 83 63 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 88 65 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 84 68 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 85 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 87 66 85 62 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 87 65 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 87 66 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 85 67 84 64 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY
AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL. IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.
PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
20
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 60 62 32 / 40 80 80 10
ATLANTA 71 53 55 30 / 40 90 100 10
BLAIRSVILLE 65 45 46 26 / 70 100 100 10
CARTERSVILLE 72 42 44 26 / 60 100 100 5
COLUMBUS 76 63 64 35 / 20 80 80 10
GAINESVILLE 69 54 56 30 / 60 100 100 10
MACON 78 63 66 37 / 20 60 80 10
ROME 70 40 42 24 / 70 100 100 5
PEACHTREE CITY 73 57 58 30 / 40 90 90 10
VIDALIA 81 62 77 41 / 10 20 70 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
16
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.
IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.
SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.
AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 73 58 59 31 / 10 60 70 10
ATLANTA 72 50 53 29 / 20 70 70 5
BLAIRSVILLE 65 44 47 24 / 50 80 70 5
CARTERSVILLE 71 41 44 26 / 40 80 70 5
COLUMBUS 75 59 61 34 / 10 60 60 20
GAINESVILLE 69 51 53 29 / 30 80 70 5
MACON 77 62 63 36 / 5 40 60 30
ROME 71 38 41 25 / 50 90 70 5
PEACHTREE CITY 73 54 56 30 / 20 70 70 5
VIDALIA 81 63 73 41 / 5 10 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
316 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH PUSH OF COLDER ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
HAS BEEN GRADUAL. AREA OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SHARPER
GRADIENT TO COLDER/DRIER TEMP/DEW POINT NOTED IN 08Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS FROM EAST CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHWEST IL AND NORTHERN
MO...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE TREND RATHER
FLAT TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES RISE OVER MORNING LOWS NEAR 10
ABOVE NORTHWEST...AND RELATIVELY STEADY READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. PARTIAL CLEARING WAS WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER MINOR
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
RESULTING HEIGHT RISES AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL FINALLY
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 C. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WHILE SOME PATCHY CLOUD COVER
AND MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. DESPITE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...SHALLOW MIXING OF COLD AIR MASS
WITHIN THE PASSING SURFACE RIDGE LOOKS TO LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
LOW-MID TEENS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AGAIN INTO +/- SINGLE DIGITS...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALOFT WORK TO
PRODUCE STEADY/RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IL. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE -15 TO -20
DEGREE RANGE BOTH LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF TIME AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
ON FRIDAY...WHILE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST ALOFT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA ALBEIT WITH THOSE GUSTY WINDS
MAINTAINING A BRISK FEEL TO THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
316 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN
RECENT WEEKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DOES PASS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED FROM TEXAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE
RETURN FROM REACHING THE MIDWEST. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL MINOR
SHORT WAVES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NARROWING A SHORT WINDOW OF ANY
LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL IN OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY REGIME. MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING US BACK TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO WORKING ON MELTING
OUR SNOWPACK...MEDIUM RANGE TEMP FORECASTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK INDICATE SOME 50 DEGREE WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR OUR
WINTER-WEARY CWA.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890) 12 (1901)
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PICKUP AFTER DAYBREAK AND LAST AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNSET IF NOT A LITTLE LATER. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME
ON THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY SO TAPERED THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GUSTS
BACK INTO THE HIGH TEENS IN THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LOWER COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
MAY FORM LATER TODAY BUT FOR NOW EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN FEW TO
SCATTERED.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND GUST SPEEDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
301 AM CST
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE LAKE
COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER GRADUALLY
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
GUSTS IN CHECK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MVFR ceilings temporarily cleared at the central Illinois
terminals this evening: however, another patch of lower clouds is
noted on 05z satellite imagery along/west of the Illinois River.
These clouds will spread eastward over the next couple of hours
before clearing out once again later tonight. Latest HRRR suggests
MVFR ceilings will depart KPIA by 09z, then further east to KCMI
by around 13z. Even when the lower clouds exit, a mid-level cloud
deck at 12000-15000ft will remain as low pressure tracks along a
frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River. Any associated
precip will remain south of the central Illinois terminals,
although overcast conditions will persist through the entire 06z
TAF period. Northwesterly winds will gust to between 15 and 20kt
tonight through Wednesday afternoon before subsiding to less than
10kt by Wednesday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
Corrected spelling error in first paragraph of Short Term
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
818 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND COLDER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RATE OF COOLING WILL INCREASE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO
EXPECTED LOWS BY DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SCATTERED
IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE OVER IN ITS PLACE SO
ANY CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY.
MDB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT BAGGY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND USHER IN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR MASS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE INTO THE EARLY-MID EVENING ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS HANGING
AROUND AND LIKELY RESULTING IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS AND HAVE GONE A
BIT ABOVE HOURLY GUIDANCE TEMPS HANGING ONTO 30S INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE BOTTOM DROPS OUT LATE TONIGHT.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING SKIES TO GO CLEAR.
A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LOOK TO BE ON TAP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS POTENTIAL TO GIVE
CHICAGO`S RECORD LOW A RUN FOR ITS MONEY...THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD BE RATHER EXTENSIVE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP A BIT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR FULL FRIGID POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY LATE
NIGHT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR LAST MINUTE DROPS IN TEMPS. ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BE NEAR BY THURSDAY WITH HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS COULD THREATEN
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS. FULL SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH LOWER ALBEDO IN
CHICAGO AND RFD METRO AREAS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHS EVER SO SLIGHTLY UPWARD.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
247 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS THAT SEE TEMPERATURES
CRASH DURING THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH. HIGH DOES SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OFF AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND DID
REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH A TREND TO
NORMAL AND THEN POTENTIALLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG MARCH SUN AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THIS WEEKEND
DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHIPPING AWAY AT THE
DEEP SNOW PACK/GLACIER THAT HAS BLANKETED THE REGION SINCE THE EARLY
FEBRUARY BLIZZARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...THE QUICKER THE SNOW PACK MELTS THE WARMER
TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS A MEAN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OF
THE NATION`S MID SECTION.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890) 12 (1901)
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A MODEST NORTHWEST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS DESK IS
ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THOUGH A CLEARING LINE WAS NOTED
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN THOUGH HAS SINCE
BECOME SHROUDED UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS. BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...WOULD EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND GUST SPEEDS WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUNDAY...SCHC RAIN OR SNOW OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS PSBL.
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
301 AM CST
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE LAKE
COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER GRADUALLY
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
GUSTS IN CHECK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
will in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MVFR ceilings temporarily cleared at the central Illinois
terminals this evening: however, another patch of lower clouds is
noted on 05z satellite imagery along/west of the Illinois River.
These clouds will spread eastward over the next couple of hours
before clearing out once again later tonight. Latest HRRR suggests
MVFR ceilings will depart KPIA by 09z, then further east to KCMI
by around 13z. Even when the lower clouds exit, a mid-level cloud
deck at 12000-15000ft will remain as low pressure tracks along a
frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River. Any associated
precip will remain south of the central Illinois terminals,
although overcast conditions will persist through the entire 06z
TAF period. Northwesterly winds will gust to between 15 and 20kt
tonight through Wednesday afternoon before subsiding to less than
10kt by Wednesday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.
TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032000Z IND TAF/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VIRGA ACROSS THE IND TAF SITE WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SATURATED THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.
TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
146 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
530 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.
MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 24 7 38 / 80 80 10 0
GCK 15 24 6 38 / 60 60 10 0
EHA 16 23 10 39 / 70 70 10 0
LBL 17 24 9 38 / 80 80 10 0
HYS 15 28 6 40 / 50 50 0 0
P28 19 25 9 39 / 80 80 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-
062>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FA OVRNGT IN TWO SUCCESSIVE
WVS...THE FIRST MID TO LATE EVE...AND A SECOND ARND DAYBREAK. THE
FIRST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLDNSS AND ISOLD SN SHWRS WITH
A COUPLE OF ST LAWRENCE STREAMERS BEING IMPLIED FOR NRN ME BY THE
LATEST HRRR HRLY SIM RADAR FCST GOING INTO THE OVRNGT. ANY ORGANIZATION
OF SN SHWR STREAMERS SHOULD WEAKEN LATE TNGT AS LLVL LAPSE RATES
DECREASE. JUST S OF THE FA...PRECIP WITH A SECOND WV OF LOW PRES
MOVG ENE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF
DOWNEAST COAST LATER TNGT INTO THU MORNING...WITH NRN EDGE OF THE
HI CLD SHIELD REACHING NWRD INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST ME.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MSLY SUNNY...OR BECOMING MSLY SUNNY
THU AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER FAIRLY
BRISK CONDITIONS...HI TEMPS THU WILL MAKE LMTD RECOVERY FROM LOWS
TNGT...AND WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY`S HIGHS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER CLR SKIES THU EVE AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
XTNDS WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL FOR MSLY
BROAD VLY AREAS LATE THU NGT WHILE HIER TRRN HOLDS ON ON TO A LGT
BREEZE. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE QUITE COLD...POTENTIALLY INTO THE
-20S DEG F OVR THE COLDEST NW VLY AREAS WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH THE LOWER 20S
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SOME NORTHERN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL LEVELS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN RISE TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR THRU THU NGT...WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CLGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD SN SHWRS OVR NRN MOST TAF SITES
LATE THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MVFR IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST INTO
THU AFTN...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051. OTHERWISE...WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING BACK OVR THE WATERS...A PD OF MDT FZG SPY IS POSSIBLE THU
NGT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS...WITH WV HTS THIS EVE RUNNING ABOUT
A FOOT OR TWO ABV GUIDANCE...THEN TO GUIDANCE BY MID THU MORN.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
929 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL DRAG TRAILING WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE BLENDED IN CMC-REGIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY TO REFLECT FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS NRN ZONES. WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
SHUNTED S OF THE REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COLD CLOUD TOPS
REFLECT THAT THESE WILL MAINLY BE HIGH CLOUDS IN NATURE AND
PROBABLY ONLY PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN. UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREV DISC...
THE STEADIER WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WAS EXITING THE AREA
AS OF 07Z. IN ITS WAKE...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE WAS SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS...SLEET...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. WITH
STEADIER PRECIPITATION NOW ENDED...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE DROPPED AS OF THE NEW PUBLIC PACKAGE
ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ENTERING WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AT 07Z WILL RACE EAST AND EXIT THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR
DEEPENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20
AT THE COAST TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO COASTAL MAINE SEES A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE STARVED WOULD BE A GOOD LABEL FOR THE THEME FOR ANY
SYSTEMS CROSSING OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
AFTER A COLD SHOT OF AIR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S EXPECTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS. THE JET
STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM CANADA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE FEBRUARY...OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT BE BUILDING FROM
THE ARCTIC AND PLUNGING SOUTHWARD. RATHER...THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED WITH TIME AFTER CROSSING NORTH AMERICA.
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THREE SEPARATE SYSTEM
PASSAGES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
AGAIN...THESE WILL BE VERY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS...SO ONLY VERY
LIGHT SNOW...SNOW FLURRIES OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY 15Z.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1118 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1053 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
Latest RAP soundings delay the precip changeover by a couple of
hours. Updated grids and products have been sent.
Kanofsky
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.
The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.
QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.
It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.
Ah spring...
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.
Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.
A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.
Truett/Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
KCOU AND KUIN TAF sites will see MVFR ceilings until around 12Z.
VFR ceilings thereafter as drier air filters in with another
arctic airmass. Northwest winds will increase and then become
gusty after daybreak at all TAF sites. KSTL area TAF sites will
experience IFR visibilities at times for the first several hours
as rain, possibly mixed with some sleet at times, moves over the
region. Otherwise expect MVFR visibilities, with precip changing
to light snow by around 10Z. Precip should end by around 16Z.
Ceilings will remain in the MVFR range through around 16Z then
improve to VFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Northwest winds will increase and then become
gusty after daybreak as arctic airmass moves into the region.
Expect IFR visibilities at times for the first several hours as
rain, possibly mixed with some sleet at times, moves over the
region. Otherwise expect MVFR visibilities, with precip changing
to light snow by around 10Z. Precip should end by around 16Z.
Ceilings will remain in the MVFR range through around 16Z then
improve to VFR.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Jefferson MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1054 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1053 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
Latest RAP soundings delay the precip changeover by a couple of
hours. Updated grids and products have been sent.
Kanofsky
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.
The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.
QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.
It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.
Ah spring...
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.
Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.
A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.
Truett/Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
MVFR ceilings will last through much of the night at all TAF
sites as cold front pushes through and stratus deck remains. KUIN
and KCOU will likely be VFR by 10-13Z Wednesday, then VFR ceilings
reach KSTL TAF sites by around 16Z. Will have to watch radar and
surface reports carefully this evening as there is some chance
that precip aloft now seen on regional radars may reach the surface at
KSTL area TAF sites. For now, it appears a dry layer at 6K to 8K
feet may keep this from happening so have left TAFS dry. Northwest
winds behind the front will become gusty and last into Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings expected until 16Z. Cold front
should reach TAF site by around 06Z, and north winds behind the
cold front will increase to around 14 knots and become gusty.
Have kept TAF dry for now, but will have to watch surface reports
to see if precip aloft now seen on radar begins reaching the
ground this evening. Expect dry air aloft to keep most precip just
to the south of KSTL on Wednesday, but it is a close call.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Jefferson MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
840 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THERE IS SOME
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS
THIS MORNING FROM WEAK QG FORCING IN THE NW FLOW CREATING A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE THERE. WILL ADD THIS FOR THE MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HITTING OUT BY BAKER...SO WILL LET IT GO THROUGH ITS VALID PERIOD
OF 11 AM. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
WE EXPECT SOME CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TODAY AND THAT
COULD YIELD BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
0/U 00/N 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
0/U 00/N 01/B 11/B 10/U 00/N 00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
0/U 00/B 00/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
0/B 00/B 00/B 21/B 11/B 00/U 00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
1/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST
INTO MID AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
0/U 00/N 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
0/B 00/N 01/B 11/B 10/U 00/N 00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
0/U 00/B 00/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
0/B 00/B 00/B 21/B 11/B 00/U 00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
0/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
927 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FLURRY OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
ONLY BRIEF ACTIVITY EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES. BORSUM
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.
TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.
EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
00/B 00/N 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
10/B 00/N 01/B 21/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
00/U 00/B 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
20/U 00/B 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
10/B 00/B 00/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
20/B 00/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 00/U 00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1243 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB IS DECREASING SLOWLY AND
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING
LIFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FLURRIES THIS MORNING UNTIL SKIES
CLEAR BY MID MORNING. NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN. THE NAM WIND AND MOISTURE
FIELDS 700MB AND BELOW SUGGEST SOME LATERAL OR TRANSVERSE
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BLENDED MODEL QPF EVEN INDICATES SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB FLURRIES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY MODE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY
SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS. THE RAP WAS ACTUALLY A
BIT TOO COLD WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST MONDAY SO THE WARMER SOLN
MIGHT BE BEST TODAY.
1030 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER
WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE
RETURN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING/EXPANDING EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST DAY OF WARM AIR WITH ONLY WARMER DAYS TO FOLLOW.
850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO BY 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL SEE A FEW NW FLOW CLIPPERS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY TEMPS HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE CLIPPERS AS AIR MASS
BEHIND EACH WAVE IS PACIFIC. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN
THE 20S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP RADIATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB IS DECREASING SLOWLY AND
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING
LIFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FLURRIES THIS MORNING UNTIL SKIES
CLEAR BY MID MORNING. NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN. THE NAM WIND AND MOISTURE
FIELDS 700MB AND BELOW SUGGEST SOME LATERAL OR TRANSVERSE
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BLENDED MODEL QPF EVEN INDICATES SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB FLURRIES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY MODE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY
SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS. THE RAP WAS ACTUALLY A
BIT TOO COLD WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST MONDAY SO THE WARMER SOLN
MIGHT BE BEST TODAY.
1030 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER
WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE
RETURN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING/EXPANDING EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST DAY OF WARM AIR WITH ONLY WARMER DAYS TO FOLLOW.
850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO BY 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL SEE A FEW NW FLOW CLIPPERS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY TEMPS HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE CLIPPERS AS AIR MASS
BEHIND EACH WAVE IS PACIFIC. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN
THE 20S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP RADIATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NORTH.
SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AND INTO WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB IS DECREASING SLOWLY AND
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING
LIFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FLURRIES THIS MORNING UNTIL SKIES
CLEAR BY MID MORNING. NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN. THE NAM WIND AND MOISTURE
FIELDS 700MB AND BELOW SUGGEST SOME LATERAL OR TRANSVERSE
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BLENDED MODEL QPF EVEN INDICATES SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB FLURRIES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY MODE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY
SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS. THE RAP WAS ACTUALLY A
BIT TOO COLD WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST MONDAY SO THE WARMER SOLN
MIGHT BE BEST TODAY.
1030 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER
WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE
RETURN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING/EXPANDING EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST DAY OF WARM AIR WITH ONLY WARMER DAYS TO FOLLOW.
850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO BY 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL SEE A FEW NW FLOW CLIPPERS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY TEMPS HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE CLIPPERS AS AIR MASS
BEHIND EACH WAVE IS PACIFIC. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN
THE 20S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP RADIATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE RISK FOR INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UNTIL ABOUT 10Z...
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO 3SM AND POSSIBLE LOWER AT TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AD RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SNOW WAS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS AGREE THAT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
BAND WILL NOT LAST LONG...AROUND 3 OR 4 HOURS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO WITHIN THIS BAND. INITIALLY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
BY 20 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL
INCREASE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 06Z OR
SO. LIFT WILL BE WEAKER TO THE NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. SHOULD
SEE A FAIRLY QUICK TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. THE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES A
LITTLE BETTER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ /EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE JUST
ABOVE THE DGZ/ SO THAT GAVE A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE...AND WILL TAKE
LOW END LIKELY POPS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEW 18Z NAM MODEL
RUN.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE. STILL PRETTY COLD WEDNESDAY...WITH H850MB NOT WARMING MUCH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND STAYING WELL BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
BUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GROUND LOOKS PRETTY
BARE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WARMER DRIER AIR MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER
PATTERN LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST PATTERN SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PULL ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLOW
CLIMB THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE RISK FOR INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UNTIL ABOUT 10Z...
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO 3SM AND POSSIBLE LOWER AT TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).
FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).
FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECWMF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...
RADAR APPEARS TO SHOW THE LAST OF ANY PRECIP IN A NARROW BAND AS IT
IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH IS
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING LOST AS THE 850MB IS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WANING. AFTER SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE AND
NORTHWARD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE REMAINING
MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WILL BE LOST BY 10PM. THE HRRR SOUNDINGS DO
STILL SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VIA THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS...AND
THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AIRCRAFT (AMDAR) SOUNDING AT KRDU JUST
BEFORE 900 PM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE WEAK AND SHALLOW BANDS STILL
DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL BE
GONE BY 11PM... SO THE MAIN PRECIP MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG WHERE TEMPS ARE
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIP HAS ENDED.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...THE
HRRR SHOWS RAPID CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
REMAINING MOISTURE BELOW 850MB IS SCOURED OUT. WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION AND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE GIVING UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN DELAYED SO
FAR...WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE A FEW
HOURS OF A DRYING WIND WILL NO DOUBT HELP...BLACK ICE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON SATURDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WARM
MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
WHICH WOULD ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING POPS
WOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AND
RIDING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WOULD
TAKE A HIT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCING IN SITU
DAMMING...AND HIGHS WILL STALL IN THE 50S... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER IF
THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ALLOWS FOR A MORE FAVORABLE DAMMING FEATURES
TO ALIGN.
CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF FURTHER IN THE WED AND THU PERIODS DUE TO
QUESTIONABLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... ALLOWING OR
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS. SEVERAL BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY AS WELL. PRECIP MAY MIX OR TURN
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KRWI THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING BY GENERALLY MIDNIGHT OR SO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
PRECIP THINK VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER THIS EVENING WITH
ANY PRECIP. IN ADDITION... AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WE WILL SEE A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE
9 TO 14 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 22 KTS OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY
GENERALLY 09 TO 12Z. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AT KRWI/KFAY/KRDU UNTIL AS LATE AS 15Z... WITH EVEN A FEW
AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT KGSO/KINT AT AROUND 2500FT DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID TO LATE MORNING... AND
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT IS STILL SOUTH OF CHARLESTON
BUT IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 15 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES AND PROBABLY WON`T IMPROVE INLAND UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OTHER
THAN CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS...FEW EDITS
WERE NEEDED ON THIS LAST NEAR-TERM UPDATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO RAISE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS
THAT CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR WEDGE. I PROMISE...THIS WEDGE
WILL BREAK! MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY OPTIMISTIC IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ITS
EVENTUAL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EVEN THE 1ST LOOK AT 0000Z
GUIDANCE HAS IT PARTIALLY THRU THE FA AT THIS TIME. ANYWAY...WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOWER INLAND AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST KLTX VWP DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA TO DISPLAY THE WINDS AT 1K
FT...INDICATIVE OF NO CLOUDS OTHER THEN THE DENSE FOG AT THE SFC
AND/OR A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS UNRECOGNIZABLE BY THE
KLTX VWP. THUS...ONCE THE WEDGE FINALLY BREAKS...IT SHOULD DO SO IN
A QUICK MANNER.
ONCE AGAIN CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS...FURTHER
REDUCING THEM TO EITHER NONE AT ALL OR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED AGAIN...WITH EITHER STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
AIR WEDNESDAY AMID WHAT HAS BEEN A FRIGID WINTER...WITH FEBRUARY
RANKING AS THE 5TH COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 141 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING
WHICH CRUNCHES OUT TO ABOUT A 1 IN 34 YEAR OCCURRENCE OF COLD. THE
OTHER NOTABLE HIGHLIGHT IS RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN
FOLLOWED BY A BITING INTRUSION OF GLACIAL AIR AND LINGERING PCPN.
STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM THE BULK OF IT THURSDAY...LOOKS
TO BE NEARLY A HALF INCH ACROSS SE NC AND LOCALITIES WEST OF I-95
AND CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NE SC AND COASTAL SC. POPPED
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THURSDAY GIVEN JET SUPPORT AND SPC DAY
3 OUTLOOK.
SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROPS...WHERE MAXIMUMS THURSDAY MINUS
MINIMUMS FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND
JUST A FRESH REMINDER OLD MAN WINTER STILL HAS BREATHINGS INTO
EARLY MARCH. AN OVERLAP OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING PCPN WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW 8Z-10Z
OR 3AM- 5AM EARLY FRIDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH TROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
SIGNS OF RELAXING BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE
TROUGH USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDES ALONG THE
OLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WARRANTING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
MARCH SUNSHINE WONT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO WARM THINGS UP WITH
HIGHS ONLY THE 50S BUT THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MIDDLE
30S. LETHARGIC WARMUP CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SURFACE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VERY LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXIST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO TRANSIT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY TAKING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK TO LIFT PAST THE ILM AND LBT AIRPORTS. BEHIND THE FRONT
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE AT THE LBT/FLO/ILM AIRPORTS...HOWEVER
CRE/MYR MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUP AS DENSE SEA FOG GENERATED BY THE
INTERACTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH VERY COLD NEARSHORE OCEAN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
ACCELERATING SOUTH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL NOT MIX DOWN
EFFECTIVELY TO THE GROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. UNTIL
THEN THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AS 1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING IFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST
UPDATE WAS TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THROWING OUT THE 00Z GFS MODEL WHICH HAS NO CLUE WHERE THE FRONT
IS...THE 00Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SHOW SURFACE
WINDS VERY SLOW TO INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE VERY COLD SEA SURFACE WATERS.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY OUT THERE IS 7-SECOND SWELL BEING PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFRIENDLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL THURSDAY...AS
THE WARM AIR MAY STRUGGLE REACHING THE COLD DENSE AIR ABOVE THE
CHILLY SSTS IN PLACE. IF NOT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN CERTAINLY BEHIND IT...AS VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS OVER THE WATERS...WITH AT A MINIMUM 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED
LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER HAZARD PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG AS BALMY AIR TRACKS OVER THE
FRIGID WATERS...REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES. RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT MAY ALSO RESTRICT LINE OF SIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS INITIALLY AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES THIS
SEASON THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES IN WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING TO AROUND TEN KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. IF ANYTHING WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT WITH NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE FEATURES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY...MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS. BY LATER SATURDAY VALUES DROP TO 1-3
FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053-055.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1148 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH
OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOWERED POPS A BIT FASTER NORTH. MODELS SHOW PRECIP ALL
BUT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN COMING BACK TO
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO DIDNT WANT TO END PRECIP TOO QUICK SOUTH.
ALSO LOWERED ANY MENTION OF SNOW ACCUM DOWN TO LITTLE OR NO.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS WELL BEGINNING WITH CURRENT READINGS AND
BLENDING THEM INTO HRRR MORNING FORECAST TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...WARMER AIR HAS TAKEN A LITTLE BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE BUT
IS STILL PUSHING NORTHWARD. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELYRIA
TO MEDINA TO WARREN LOOK TO BE IN THE CLEAR FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS WILL
REMAIN SLICK.
OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OHIO
UNTIL 6 PM AND EXTENDED NW PA UNTIL 9 PM. IT IS EXPECTED THESE
LOCATIONS WILL ALL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 3 AM OR LATER. THIS
LATE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN DECENT LIFT
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. AT WORST CASE AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL AT LEAST 10 PM THEN
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A
RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT BUT A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO WILL POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SINCE AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REGION DIPS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. COLD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
RECOVERING INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
BELOW ZERO IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A BREAKDOWN OF LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE TROUGH
WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT MORE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A FEW
MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS...YET THESE VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED
DISTURBANCES WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY
TURNING OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH...THEY WILL FEEL NOTABLY WARMER THAN WE`VE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS SAT-TUE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 32F. STILL FEEL THE GUIDANCE`S
CLIMATOLOGY BIAS IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TOO
PREMATURELY SAT/SUN...COULD SEE IT HAPPEN TUE AS THE RIDGING BEGINS
IN THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS MAY SCOOT ACROSS MANSFIELD AND
AKRON CANTON BUT WILL LEAVE THEM DRY FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE WHOLE
AREA SLIDES SOUTH OF THOSE TWO LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT IT IS GOING TO TAKE
QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER FOR MFD...CAK YNG LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU THEN IMPROVE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE REMAINED UNDER 15KT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TURN TO THE SW AND THEN
W. AFTER THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY...WIND SPEEDS
WILL SUBSIDE AND REMAIN AROUND 15KT THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1210 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER MVFR WITH SOME PERIODS REDUCED TO
IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EVENTUALLY GOING VFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR TERMINALS... PRODUCING A WINTERY MIX OF BOTH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z,
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO SNOW.
AFTER 00Z, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW, WITH
SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARD 06Z, AND COMPLETELY ENDING BY DAYLIGHT
12Z THURSDAY. HIGH SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTH SFC WINDS THROUGH 12Z, THEN GOING LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY 18Z ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 21 37 21 / 80 50 10 10
HOBART OK 30 18 36 20 / 90 40 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 37 21 36 19 / 90 60 10 10
GAGE OK 24 11 38 20 / 60 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 26 16 35 21 / 70 30 10 10
DURANT OK 44 23 37 21 / 100 90 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
020-022>048-050>052.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>018-021.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/03/67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 21 37 21 / 80 50 10 10
HOBART OK 30 18 36 20 / 90 40 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 37 21 36 19 / 90 60 10 10
GAGE OK 24 11 38 20 / 60 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 26 16 35 21 / 70 30 10 10
DURANT OK 44 23 37 21 / 100 90 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
020-022>048-050>052.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>018-021.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1029 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 03Z...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE STATE. BACK EDGE OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR LANCASTER CO BY 05Z...AND PATCH OF
STRATOCU OVR WARREN/MCKEAN COS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z...AS
INVERSION HGTS FALL.
DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10
BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER.
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW
AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IMPROVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORM SYSTEM BEGAN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. AT
00Z...CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
A THICK MID-LEVEL DECK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD...
PERSISTING OVER THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU COMING
OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KBFD WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT IF
IT REACHES THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. WINDS THIS EVE WILL
START OUT AROUND 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
735 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS OF
00Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR...WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS FROM HARRISBURG SEWRD THRU ARND 01Z.
IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NW PA AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
THIS CLEARING TREND TO SPREAD SE THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES
SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE STATE. DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES
AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES...AVERAGING ARND 10 BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ALLOW THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER. LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW AS 15-20 BLW ZERO.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IMPROVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORM SYSTEM BEGAN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. AT
00Z...CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
A THICK MID-LEVEL DECK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD...
PERSISTING OVER THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU COMING
OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KBFD WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT IF
IT REACHES THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. WINDS THIS EVE WILL
START OUT AROUND 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
704 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS OF
00Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR...WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS FROM HARRISBURG SEWRD THRU ARND 01Z.
IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NW PA AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
THIS CLEARING TREND TO SPREAD SE THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES
SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE STATE. DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES
AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES...AVERAGING ARND 10 BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ALLOW THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER. LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW AS 15-20 BLW ZERO.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR NORTH OF THE BANDED
PRECIPITATION THAT IS CAUSING MVFR-IFR/LIFR FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LANCASTER-HARRISBURG LIKELY BEING THE
LAST TO ENJOY IN THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. JST MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TOUGH UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE:
AFTER INGESTING NEW 12Z DATA AND LATEST ENSEMBLES...IT IS BECOMING
APPARENT THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE WARNING TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND LOWERED THE
OVERALL NUMBERS MORE IN LINE LATEST QPF/WWD SNOWFALL GUIDANCE.
STILL POSSIBLE THE WARNING CONFIGURATION IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND
MAY YET NEED FURTHER TRIMMING LATER THIS EVENING AS WE GATHER
NEWER ENSEMBLES AND HRRR DATA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH. TEMPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BRING A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW IN
JOHNSTOWN BY 20-22Z...ALTOONA/STATE COLLEGE 22-00Z...AND NOT UNTIL
03-6Z IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS. IT`S OVER THESE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PROBLEM WILL BE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
THAT IS EXPECTED WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ARRIVES.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SREF AND GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW 0F AND THE
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRYER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-049>053-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE:
AFTER INGESTING NEW 12Z DATA AND LATEST ENSEMBLES...IT IS BECOMING
APPARENT THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE WARNING TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND LOWERED THE
OVERALL NUMBERS MORE IN LINE LATEST QPF/WWD SNOWFALL GUIDANCE.
STILL POSSIBLE THE WARNING CONFIGURATION IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND
MAY YET NEED FURTHER TRIMMING LATER THIS EVENING AS WE GATHER
NEWER ENSEMBLES AND HRRR DATA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH. TEMPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BRING A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW IN
JOHNSTOWN BY 20-22Z...ALTOONA/STATE COLLEGE 22-00Z...AND NOT UNTIL
03-6Z IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS. IT`S OVER THESE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PROBLEM WILL BE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
THAT IS EXPECTED WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ARRIVES.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SREF AND GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRYER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-049>053-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATER
TODAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE:
AFTER INGESTING NEW 12Z DATA AND LATEST ENSEMBLES...IT IS BECOMING
APPARENT THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE WARNING TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND LOWERED THE
OVERALL NUMBERS MORE IN LINE LATEST QPF/WWD SNOWFALL GUIDANCE.
STILL POSSIBLE THE WARNING CONFIGURATION IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND
MAY YET NEED FURTHER TRIMMING LATER THIS EVENING AS WE GATHER
NEWER ENSEMBLES AND HRRR DATA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH. TEMPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BRING A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW IN
JOHNSTOWN BY 20-22Z...ALTOONA/STATE COLLEGE 22-00Z...AND NOT UNTIL
03-6Z IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS. IT`S OVER THESE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PROBLEM WILL BE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
THAT IS EXPECTED WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ARRIVES.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SREF AND GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRYER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ017>019-049>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AS ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LL JET AND ASSOC PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
PLAIN RAIN OVR MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AS OF 04Z.
MEANWHILE...FZRA CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE LOW LVL COLD AIR WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAST OF THE FZRA ENDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
NE OF KIPT BTWN 06Z-09Z.
BASED ON ASOS ICE ACCRETIONS THRU 02Z AND UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE DOWNGRADED ICE STORM WARNING TO A WINT WX ADV ACROSS
THE N MTNS. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN WINT WX ADV
THRU 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...DUE TO POTENTIAL
OF RESIDUAL ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS. SPOTTER FROM WARREN CO
CONFIRMED THE ICY ROADS WITH TEMPS ABV 32F AT 01Z. LOW LVL COLD
AIR WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST OF THE MTNS...SO HAVE KEPT ADV IN
PLACE THRU 12Z...BUT MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO CANCEL EARLY.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 04Z ALREADY SHOWING PRECIP TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES THE
FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT /IN THE FORM OF RAIN/ WILL BE
OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE SWRLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW PA. MAY HAVE TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM KJST SOUTHWARD...WHERE
RAINFALL AND TEMPS APPROACHING 50F COULD WILL PRODUCE SIG
SNOWMELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF PA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING PRECIP REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA IN
REGION OF 8-7H FGEN FORCING. MDL BLYR TEMPS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH APPEARS
POSSIBLE BY WED EVENING. DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A MAINLY DRY DAY THERE WITH JUST A CHC OF -SHSN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS SUPPORTING A BROAD STRIPE OF PCPN
ALONG A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF PHASING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE DSW/ROCKIES ON WED AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VLY AND MID ATLC ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS AND SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY THURS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INTO A
DEEPENING COLD SECTOR ALONG/NORTH OF THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PA WED NGT INTO THURS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH IS LKLY TIED TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THAT SAID...THE
CONSENSUS FCST AXIS OF MAX QPF /0.50 INCH OR GREATER/ HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAINTED OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...USED A MULTI MODEL BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION
FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF AMTS WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE
IN A STATE OF TRANSITION AND COOLING DOWN FROM NW TO SE WED-WED
NGT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. A PERIOD OF SLEET
MAY IMPACT FCST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE DURATION A KEY FACTOR
IN THIS FCST. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND GREATEST RISK IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW/6+ INCHES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ROBUST
WPC ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
MAINLY RAIN NOW IN MOST AREAS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE OH VLY WILL KEEP A LARGE
AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. JST WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN...BUT GROUND AND OBJECT
TEMPS LIKELY STILL COLD. THE OTHER FACTOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE LLWS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO JUST RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR A SHORT TIME. MANY AREAS MAY JUST SEE NOTHING ONCE THE
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
FOR WED...RAIN WILL GO BACK TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. HARD TO SEE
CONDITIONS BEING VERY GOOD.
VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
WED INTO THU. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE WED INTO THU...LIKELY GIVING
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA SOME SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
WINDS...SNOW...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
POOR CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ012-
018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 74 32 37 27 / 20 80 60 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 76 37 41 30 / 20 40 70 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 66 41 42 35 / 20 30 50 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS
AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD
LOWS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY
EVE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS
AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT
WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6
EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE
HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...
FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK..
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
240 AM UPDATE...
CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE.
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS N-S OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD BANDS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT WITH DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. RAP HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON TIMING AND SHOWS
THESE OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS BACKING ONTO CAPE COD THIS MORNING...BEFORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THEM OUT
TO SEA.
OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A VERY COLD
START WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS INTERIOR TO TEENS AT COAST...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN LOW TO
MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
ALSO CHECKED RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH LOOK TO BE OUT OF
REACH...ESPECIALLY BOSTON!
BOSTON...9 IN 1872 /LOW THAT DAY WAS -8/
PROVIDENCE...22 IN 2007
HARTFORD...19 IN 2007
WORCESTER...16 IN 2007
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP
SNOWPACK SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS
AND TEENS. IT PROBABLY WON/T BE AS COLD AS IT IS THIS MORNING DUE
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT AS WARM ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATER IN DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY.
INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
* PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD
MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE
INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS.
HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING
BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE
LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH CLOUD COME CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED AS
GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH COOLER
TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST.
THURSDAY...
COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT.
VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020 NEAR OUTER CAPE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
N WINDS TODAY AND MORE OF W/SW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS APPROACH
SCA LATER SAT AFTERNOON ON S COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SAT NIGHT...SCA WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH AND IS MARKED
BY A FINE LINE ON KCLX 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY 4 AM BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. RAIN IS
QUICKLY ENDING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. H3R AND RAP WET-BULB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKELEY COUNTY AFTER 4 AM WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -FZDZ IN
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED.
TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1000 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.UPDATE...THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA AND RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE NEXT SEVEN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED OVER THE DELTA
REGION THIS EVENING THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN
LIGHTER WINDS. STILL...WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER 20S AND TEENS
FOR NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
DELTA. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER AND LIGHTER NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/
SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES WILL EXIST AT
SITES WHERE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
EVENING...AND VFR STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE WINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED THE ARKLAMISS LATE LAST
NIGHT AND MUCH OF TODAY IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS HAVE
ENDED. THERE ARE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN THE PINEBELT REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED ABOVE FREEZING AND NO TRAVEL ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED THERE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER ICE/SLEET...WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT
ISSUES WITH REFREEZING FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AS DRY NORTHERLY WINDS HELP TO DRY OFF THE ROADS.
WHILE REFREEZING MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS NOT QUITE AS
BIG OF A CONCERN AS IT WAS EARLIER...ESPECIALLY ON THE WELL-TRAVELED
ROADS.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS OVER-DOING COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ICE COVER TONIGHT AND
THIS IS MAKING FOR A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DID NOT
WANT TO GO NEARLY AS LOW AS HRRR WHICH HAS SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DO BELIEVE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT NIGHTTIME
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HAVE CUT
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT NOT TOO MUCH AS
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF CIRRUS THAT DISRUPTS COOLING. /EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WE
GO INTO NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE TIME WE GET
TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 21 44 25 58 / 0 0 0 6
MERIDIAN 21 46 21 59 / 0 0 0 5
VICKSBURG 20 44 23 55 / 0 0 0 6
HATTIESBURG 24 51 25 63 / 0 0 0 7
NATCHEZ 21 44 24 58 / 0 0 0 8
GREENVILLE 18 38 23 51 / 0 0 0 4
GREENWOOD 17 41 21 54 / 0 0 0 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/19/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CIGS WILL BE
AROUND 25000 FT AGL WITH ANY CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AT 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...
RADAR APPEARS TO SHOW THE LAST OF ANY PRECIP IN A NARROW BAND AS IT
IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH IS
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING LOST AS THE 850MB IS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WANING. AFTER SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE AND
NORTHWARD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE REMAINING
MOISTURE ABOVE -10C WILL BE LOST BY 10PM. THE HRRR SOUNDINGS DO
STILL SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VIA THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS...AND
THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AIRCRAFT (AMDAR) SOUNDING AT KRDU JUST
BEFORE 900 PM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE WEAK AND SHALLOW BANDS STILL
DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THIS TOO WILL BE
GONE BY 11PM... SO THE MAIN PRECIP MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG WHERE TEMPS ARE
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIP HAS ENDED.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...THE
HRRR SHOWS RAPID CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
REMAINING MOISTURE BELOW 850MB IS SCOURED OUT. WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION AND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST GUIDANCE GIVING UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN DELAYED SO
FAR...WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM/MET
GUIDANCE. THE ROADS WILL REMAIN WET OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE A FEW
HOURS OF A DRYING WIND WILL NO DOUBT HELP...BLACK ICE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON SATURDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WARM
MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
WHICH WOULD ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING POPS
WOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AND
RIDING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WOULD
TAKE A HIT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCING IN SITU
DAMMING...AND HIGHS WILL STALL IN THE 50S... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER IF
THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ALLOWS FOR A MORE FAVORABLE DAMMING FEATURES
TO ALIGN.
CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF FURTHER IN THE WED AND THU PERIODS DUE TO
QUESTIONABLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1234 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR SOME VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE COMPLETELY
SHUTOFF FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD HAS CLEARED THE COAST WITH
ASOS/AWOS OBS INDICATING ONLY PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINING. WHILE THIS
WOULD NORMALLY MEAN THE EVENT IS OVER...THE 00Z WAS MOST EMPHATIC
THAT A SECOND WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE 300K
SURFACE OVERHEAD JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBTLE
BACKING OF THE 700-800 MB FLOW. THE GFS IS FLATTER WITH THIS
DEVELOPING WAVE WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON LAND. I HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE LATE-NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST...HOWEVER I
BELIEVE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD LAYER WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THICKENING TO 3500-4000 FEET DEPTH BENEATH
THE WARM CLOUD ALOFT...SLEET WOULD BE THE PREFERRED PRECIP TYPE
RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE MAIN DRIVER IN ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING RAIN WAS ALONG A CKI TO LBT LINE AND
THIS WAS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. RADAR SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD CREEPING SLOWLY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER
40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT A FEW SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
30S. FACTOR IN A N WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IT
FEELS AS IF IT WERE IN THE 20S LATE THIS EVE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A SLOW...BUT STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH THE RAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...LASTLY ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR IS SHALLOW WITH N TO NE
WINDS THROUGH 4 KFT BEING TOPPED BY A DEEP AND STILL STRONG SW TO
WSW FLOW. THIS DOES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER LONGER INTO
THE NIGHT. WILL HANG ONTO THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
WILL THEN SHOW THE PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE AIR TEMPS DROP TO
32 DEGREES OR LOWER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE RELUCTANT TO PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THIS AREA IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA...THIS WILL COMPLICATE THINGS AS ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPS OF THE LAST TWO
DAYS...GROUND TEMPS TO INCLUDE ROADWAYS...AND EXPOSED SURFACES TO
INCLUDE BRIDGES...TREES...POWER LINES AND CARS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO REACH FREEZING BEFORE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THUS...ALTHOUGH INSTRUMENTS MAY REPORT SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...NO ICE ACCRUAL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WINTER WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A CERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AS A WINTRY TYPE.
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE COLUMN FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE LEFT IN THE COLUMN...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE. FOR THIS REASON HAVE CUT BACK POP TO SILENT FOR ALL BUT
THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...AND EVEN THERE ONLY A SCHC IS WARRANTED FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIP MAY BE A BIT OF IP/ZR
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ANY WINTRY PRECIP.
THEREAFTER...RAPID DRYING OCCURS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ENVELOP THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTN. EVEN WITH FULL MARCH SUN...TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL
RISE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 30S - A FULL 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL!
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY CAUSING CAA TO
WEAKEN...AND A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY COLUMN AND
WEEK WINDS SUPPORT STRONG LONGWAVE COOLING. GUIDANCE HAS COOLED A
BIT...AND WE MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT (20 AT WILMINGTON
AND 20 AT FLORENCE). CURRENT FORECASTS ARE JUST ABOVE THESE
NUMBERS...BUT AN EXCEEDINGLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
A WARMER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EVEN BENEATH THE
INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP
MINS MUCH WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE STILL
EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOWS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SPLIT
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES JOGS TO THE NORTH
WITH A WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. SURFACE
FEATURES INCLUDE A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY WITH A BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED OFFSHORE. THIS IS WHAT REMAINS OF OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATER TODAY. BEYOND THIS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCES. WITH THE WEAK
FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE
FORCING IS SLIGHTLY BETTER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED QUITE A
BIT BY THE MOISTURE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 45-50 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AT THE INLAND TERMINALS MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 09Z...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPO MVFR
CIG UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE N GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KT DECREASING TO NE AROUND 12 KT BY LATE MORNING.
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THE SAME TREND IN CIGS IS EXPECTED EXCEPT
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT LINGER JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
POTENTIALLY 12-14Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW ICE PELLETS AT KILM
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE N GUSTING TO 25-30KT DECEASING TO NE
AROUND 12 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCT BY AFTERNOON.
N WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY SURGE AND
THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS WILL PEAK IN
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 9 FT. SEAS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE VERY NEAR
SHORE WATERS TO INCLUDE LONG BAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 10AM
FOR NORTH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 34 KTS. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE
THEREAFTER...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH FRIDAY...REMAINING
15-20 KTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CONTINUED STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 6 FT ALL OF FRIDAY...AND AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNING DROPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS...AND THEN OVER...THE WATERS ON SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION LATE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL STEADILY ON
SATURDAY...LEVELING OFF AT 1-2 FT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO MODEST WIND FIELDS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST
AND AN OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL DISPLAY SOME VARIATION BUT OVERALL A
RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD BE GOOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL START
OFF VERY LOW...1-2 FEET SUNDAY AND INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WINDS HOVER AROUND THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS. COULD EVEN SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD AND MID/HIGH CLOUD HAS CLEARED THE
COAST. SMALL PATCH OF STRATOCU STILL EVIDENT OVER EASTERN WARREN
AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH.
DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10
BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER.
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW
AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
121 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD AND MID/HIGH CLOUD HAS CLEARED THE
COAST. SMALL PATCH OF STRATOCU STILL EVIDENT OVER EASTERN WARREN
AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH.
DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10
BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER.
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW
AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME...WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE EARLY ON.
THESE WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT IN KBFD WHERE A SMALL STRATOCU DECK WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR.
VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1138 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 03Z...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE STATE. BACK EDGE OF MID
LVL CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR LANCASTER CO BY 05Z...AND PATCH OF
STRATOCU OVR WARREN/MCKEAN COS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z...AS
INVERSION HGTS FALL.
DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AVERAGING 5-10
BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
SHOULD ALLOW THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER.
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW
AS 15 BLW ZERO. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME...WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE EARLY ON.
THESE WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT IN KBFD WHERE A SMALL STRATOCU DECK WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR.
VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
957 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATED RECORD LOW INFORMATION.
HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS
AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE
DAY/EARLY EVE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN NORTH OF THE CITY.
.SUNDAY THROUGH-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE DECREASED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY AS A RESULT. LOCALIZED
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MID DAY. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW
HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW INFORMATION FOR THIS MORNING FOLLOWS.
STATION LOW TEMP OLD RECORD
EWR 12 12/2007 (TIED)
BDR 9 11/2007 (BROKEN)
NYC 12 6/1872 (NO RECORD)
LGA 15 14/2007 (NO RECORD)
JFK 13 13/2007 (TIED)
ISP 12 12/2007 (TIED)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL OCCUR TODAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND
NOON. IT HAD BEEN DELAYED DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GS
NEAR TERM...GS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GS
HYDROLOGY...GS
CLIMATE...GS
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
642 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL
BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS
WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD
LOWS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE
DAY/EARLY EVE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN NORTH OF THE CITY.
.SUNDAY THROUGH-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS
AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT
WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6
EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL
BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS
WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S.
NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD
LOWS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY
EVE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS
AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT
WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6
EWR......12/2007
BDR......11/2007
NYC.......6/1872
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
629 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE
HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...
FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK..
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS SNE EXCEPT FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS
ACROSS CAPE COD. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ACK. RAP HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE
CLOUDS AND PUSHES THEM OUT TO SEA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW.
OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A VERY COLD
START HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN LOW TO MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
ALSO CHECKED RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH LOOK TO BE OUT OF
REACH...ESPECIALLY BOSTON!
BOSTON...9 IN 1872 /LOW THAT DAY WAS -8/
PROVIDENCE...22 IN 2007
HARTFORD...19 IN 2007
WORCESTER...16 IN 2007
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP
SNOWPACK SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS
AND TEENS. IT PROBABLY WON/T BE AS COLD AS IT IS THIS MORNING DUE
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT AS WARM ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATER IN DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY.
INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
* PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD
MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE
INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS.
HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING
BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE
LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH COULD COME CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED
AS GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH
COOLER TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST.
THURSDAY...
COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT.
VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020 NEAR OUTER CAPE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
N WINDS TODAY AND MORE OF W/SW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS APPROACH
SCA LATER SAT AFTERNOON ON S COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SAT NIGHT...SCA WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING.
SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ATLANTA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THESE BANDS ARE QUICKLY ERODING... AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS LARGE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO SHOW AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT AND SHOW
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH... AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S
SOUTH. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A
LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST
LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS
WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN
SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A
LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST
LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS
WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN
SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
902 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RFW
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH INDICATES NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR A HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND
FIRE ZONE 209. AFTER A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS...FORECAST TD/S WERE LOWER SLIGHTLY...IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING. THUS LOCALIZED
AREAS OF 15-20% RH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL
IN QUESTION HOWEVER AND WHEN USING A HYBRID BLEND OF THE HRRR 80M
WIND GUST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 25 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MINIMUM RH IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SO ALL IN ALL...TODAY
WE/RE ANTICIPATING NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT A RFW IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN100-120 CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE
AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST
THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
532 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN100-120 CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE
AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST
THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1239 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG MARCH SUN WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY.
HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP AROUND 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOW
INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT
IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON
THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS
AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC
POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT
00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
WITH PAC ORIGINS.
IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS
TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING. WINDS SPEEDS THEN INCREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY...BUT
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC MVFR CONDS IN -SHSN.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE DECREASED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY AS A RESULT. LOCALIZED
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MID DAY. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW
HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTN.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW INFORMATION FOR THIS MORNING FOLLOWS.
STATION LOW TEMP OLD RECORD
EWR 12 12/2007 (TIED)
BDR 9 11/2007 (BROKEN)
NYC 12 6/1872 (NO RECORD)
LGA 15 14/2007 (NO RECORD)
JFK 13 13/2007 (TIED)
ISP 12 12/2007 (TIED)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GS
NEAR TERM...GS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GS
HYDROLOGY...GS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY SNOW FLURRIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF ATLANTA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THESE BANDS ARE QUICKLY ERODING... AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS LARGE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO SHOW AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW THREAT AND SHOW
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH... AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S
SOUTH. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUAL ERODING OF MVFR AND LOW MID
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING BY 19-20Z TODAY FOR AHN AND ATLANTA AREA TAF
SITES... AND A BIT LATER FOR CSG AND MCN. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY NW AROUND 3-6KTS THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN
BACKING MORE WESTERLY SAT AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 46 29 61 35 / 30 0 0 0
ATLANTA 47 31 59 37 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 25 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 45 27 58 31 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 32 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 45 30 58 37 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 49 30 62 34 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 45 26 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 28 61 31 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 49 34 62 40 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
153 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST THRU THE ROCKIES BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE LEVEL
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MAIN WX
FEATURE WITH A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH AIDS IN INCREASING TEMPS WITH STRONG WAA ON SW FLOW.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD
W/ TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS INVERTED RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO AREA AS TROUGH PASSES. OVERALL SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE IN UPSLOPE REGION AS REGION UNDER
EASTERLY FETCH.
FOR AREA TEMPS THOUGH...925MB NUMBERS WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +15C
OVER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHS...AND +17C TO NEAR +21C
FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CAA WITH SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
GOING TO GIVE THE AREA HIGH TEMPS 5-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR SUN-MON...AND 60S TO NEAR 70S(WED)
FOR REST OF TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO START UP TO THE MID 30S BY END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DRY AND CALM WEATHER. AN OCCASIONAL GUST CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT AT KGLD LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES
ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA
MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND
NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS
BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY
BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED
THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST
EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.
CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO
NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C
AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7
WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT
MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C.
MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3-
5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE
FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW.
IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT
H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY
PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH AND
EXPAND EASTWARD...CAUSING THE ERN TROF TO LIFT NE AND DIMINISH IN
AMPLITUDE. THESE CHANGES WILL CAUSE ARCTIC AIR TO RETEAT AND WILL
ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO MAKE INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE
AREA...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...BUT WITH THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THE CHANGING PATTERN
WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...CONTINUING THE DRY
SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. IN FACT...EXCLUDING SUN...MANY
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN NEXT WEEK. FARTHER DOWN
THE LINE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO
NORMAL TEMP REGIME MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BLO NORMAL (MORE OF THE GEM ENSEMBLES OUT AT DAY 16
ARE SHOWING REBUILDING OF A FAR WRN NAMERICE RIDGE). PATTERN STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT/SUN...2 OR 3 SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIALLY SAT NIGHT...850MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -14C
MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT NW FLOW LES. AS WINDS BACK WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND APPROACH OF LOW PRES TROF...THE LIGHT LES
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF TO THE SW IN SRN MN/NRN
IA...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FARTHER N MAY
SPREAD SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. AFTER ANY LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES END
SUN EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE...
850MB TEMPS OF -11/-12C SHOULDN`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHT LES SUN EVENING.
RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO WARMING FOR MON/TUE.
PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -6 TO -11C MON MORNING TO
RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH BETTER MOISTENING INDICATED TO THE N AND E OF HERE...
CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. SO...ONLY
EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A
BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS WON`T DOMINATE EITHER
DAY. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF
SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON-TUE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AT SOME POINT MON/TUE. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL TOP 50F EITHER DAY...BUT MORE
LIKELY OVER THE SCNTRL ON TUE.
BIGGEST MODEL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY IS FOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO TO BE QUICKER...AND THUS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
THRU UPPER MI SOONER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS YESTERDAY. WILL BE A
TREND TO MONITOR THAT MAY AFFECT TUE TEMPS. FOR NOW...THIS MEANS A
COOLER WED IS NOW EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING NOSES SE INTO
THE UPPER LAKES WED...RESULTING IN THE ADDITIVE CHILL OF LIGHT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI. TIGHT 850MB TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR (10C DIFFERENCE FROM SW UPPER
MI TO NE LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SUPPORT A DECENT SFC TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SCNTRL SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S WED
WHILE LWR 30S SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE N AND E. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO MAY GENERATE PATCHY
-SN/FLURRIES WITHIN THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT...BUT AT THIS POINT...
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
ALTHOUGH WAA GETS UNDERWAY AGAIN THU...IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL
OF COLUMN MOISTENING IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR DEEPER
INTO THE RETREATING COLD AIR TO THE N OF UPPER MI. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FCST FOR THU.
12Z GFS CONTINUES ALONG THE LINES OF SOME PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING
WHAT WOULD LIKELY END UP AS A MIXED PCPN EVENT FRI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH PACIFIC ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. UNTIL OTHER
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT IDEA...WILL HOLD OFF FROM INCLUDING AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. VSBY MAY
DROP TO IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE
SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT A REALLY WEAK WAVE ALOFT OVER UPR MICHIGAN
TODAY. MAINLY A SMATTERING OF MID CLOUDS AND JUST NOW SOME FLURRIES
ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER EASTERN CWA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT BLO H85 PER RAP ALONG SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CWA
MAY INCREASE LGT SNOW BRIEFLY INTO EARLY EVENING TO EAST OF P53 AND
NORTH OF ERY. RADAR ECHOES PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...SO FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLY ALL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE. ONLY OTHER ISSUE TODAY HAS
BEEN GUSTY SW WINDS OVER EAST HALF. ERY EVEN GUSTED OVER 40 MPH
BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HAZE REPORTED ON THE AWOS WHICH IS LIKELY
BLSN. WEBCAMS OVER REST OF THE EAST INDICATE THAT IS FAIRLY LOCALIZED
THOUGH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WEST HALF AS LOW-LEVEL JET
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE EAST
EARLY...A QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS
AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS. PERHAPS IF WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A WHILE COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.
CHANGES OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BRING DEEPENING SFC LOW TO
NORTHERN PART OF LK SUPERIOR BTWN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD OVER REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW GET CLOSER TO THE
AREA. SFC OBS ACTUALLY SHOW LGT LIQUID PRECIP OCCURRING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C
AT H85 GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE MAKING IT INTO UPR MICHIGAN.
ONLY EXPECTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS H8-H7
WITH TEMPS WELL WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S SHOULD BE AT LEAST 15:1 IF NOT
MORE TOWARD 20:1 WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ON TEMPS -15C TO -18C.
MIXING RATIOS AHEAD OF THE LOW UP TO 2G/KG WOULD SUPPORT 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVER 12 HOURS...BUT DURATION OF THE SNOW IN THIS CASE WILL BE 3-
5 HOURS AT THE MOST. MAYBE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BUT
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...A LITTLE MORE IF THE
FLUFFIER SLR/S MATERIALIZE FOR THE DURATION OF THE SNOW.
IN WAKE OF THE SNOW...WHICH ENDS FM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS AT
H9-H85 COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRICTLY SNOW AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
AT ALL BTWN 15Z-21Z WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WITH NW WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT LEAST
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN AS H85 THERMAL
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -14C AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFFECT
MAINLY WESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE COOLER AIR WORKS IN LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE VERY PERSISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED WEATHER OVER ERN
NAMERICA FOR MORE THAN A MONTH WILL BE WEAKENING AS POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH. THESE CHANGES WILL
RESULT IN A MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE...ALLOWING
PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR UPPER MI...THIS MEANS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
RETREATING ARCTIC AIR THRU THE WEEKEND...AND THEN NEXT WEEK...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SRN CANADA IN THE MORE
ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW. AS FOR PCPN...DESPITE THE CHANGING PATTERN
WEATHER STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
BEGINNING SAT...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH SCNTRL CANADA WILL
REACH THE UPPER LAKES SAT MORNING. MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP
LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE
280-285K SFCS (700-850MB) WHICH SHOULD YIELD A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN
AT MOST LOCATIONS. MIXING RATIOS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ARE 2G/KG
BUT THE PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHORT-LIVED...AND MUCH OF THE
LIFT WILL GO INTO MOISTENING THE DRY LOW-LEVELS ALREADY IN PLACE.
SO...EXPECT MAYBE 3HRS OR SO OF STEADIER -SN SAT MORNING IN THE NW
AND ERN FCST AREA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE/BEST HEIGHT
FALLS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS
SAT MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES AND A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -14C
BEHIND SHORTWAVE ON SAT...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT LES OFF THE OPEN
SPOTS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER FOR THE NW SNOWBELTS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...TWO MORE SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THRU THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. INITIALLY...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WX SAT NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE AXIS/WSHFT TO THE SW THAT
WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING LIGHT LES OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE SAT
NIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF TO THE SW IN SRN
MN/SW WI WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP. WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE DUE TO ARRIVE SUN AFTN...ASSOC SHSN MAY BE ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. 850MB TEMPS -10 TO -12C PROBABLY WON`T BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO GENERATE MUCH IF ANY LES SUN EVENING IN A
WESTERLY FLOW.
RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DOMINATING
MON THRU THU AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO THE N OF THE UPPER LAKES.
PERSISTENT WAA WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -10C MON MORNING TO
RISE TO 1 TO 4C BY TUE MORNING...BUT THEN TEMPS WL FALL TO -2C NORTH
TO 2C SOUTH BY WED MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MORE
THAN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SINCE SUNSHINE ON THE LOWER ALBEDO
FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI BY EARLY MARCH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE FOR MON
THRU WED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S BY TUE
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS TUE AND WED. GIVEN EXPECTED PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT...EXPECT THE N TO BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WED THAN TUE WHILE THE
S SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS TEMPS. IF TUE OR WED ENDS UP
MOSTLY SUNNY...COULD SEE SOME LOW 50S TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. SFC HIGH PRES DROPPING TO THE NE AND E OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON THU IN AN ERLY FLOW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCES A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. VSBY MAY
DROP TO IFR AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS FOR SATURDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO
30 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THAT FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE 25 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ALREADY SEEING THE ICE
SHIFT AROUND THOUGH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES AND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
HEADING FOR THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
NRN MOST ONE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...WITH THE SRN ONE WORKING
THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE NRN WAVE IS ON ITS WAY TO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW HEADING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SRN WAVE WILL HEAD FOR SW MN...BUT WILL HAVE NO SFC INFLECTION.
INSTEAD...THIS SRN WAVE WILL HELP STOP THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS SRN MN AND HELP PUSH IT BACK ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
RATHER BLEAK CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PROBLEM...AS THESE
WAVES MOISTEN THE ATMO ABOVE 10K FT...BUT NOT MUCH BELOW THAT. THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
WAVE...WITH A QUICK HIT OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY GOING OVER NRN MN.
EXISTING POPS HAD SOME SMALL POPS NORTH OF I-94 AND KEPT THOSE IN
PLACE...JUST SPED THEM UP A TAD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS FROM THE NMM AND ARW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP WE DO SEE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SLIP THROUGH THE
AREA AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL LIKELY SEE A
BANK OF STRATOCU WORK DOWN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS WE WORK INTO THE AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL BACK A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TODAY THOUGH WILL BE THE BREEZY NW
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE
MIXED CHANNEL WINDS OUT IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY UP AROUND 30 KTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MILD AND QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY END
UP BEING THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST OCTOBER. WE ARE
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS TUE-FRI...AND WE`RE
BEING CAUTIOUS. 60S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH.
THE ECMWF MOS WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AND IT
WAS ALSO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...IF THAT
IS TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THEN WE ARE LIKELY YO COOL
WITH OUR TEMPERATURE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE A FAN OF
WARMTH...THAT IS GOOD NEWS AND SUGGESTS A LOT OF LOCATIONS WILL
MAKE A RUN AT 60 FOR 2-3 DAYS. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL WE
MIX. THE GFS HAS A KNOWN COOL BIAS WITH TEMPS AND IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDER FORECASTING THE MIXING POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK. THE SNOW COVER
WILL BE GONE BY NEXT WEEK AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER LOCALLY
AND UPSTREAM SUGGEST FORECASTERS SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKE THE ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE STRAIGHT 2M TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND THE ECMWF MOS IS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60. WE BOOSTED HIGHS TODAY AND IF
THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO HOLD...WE WILL LIKELY GO WARMER IN
THE DAYS TO COME.
IN TERMS OF PRECIP...THERE ISN`T MUCH GOING FOR MN/WI. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SIGNAL IS WEAK LOCALLY WITH A WEAK NORTHERN WAVE AND WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. A DAY AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...BUT
THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH AND MAY MISS THE FORECAST AREA
COMPLETELY. WE STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH JUST
TRACE-0.02" LIQUID...BUT WE COULD PROBABLY REMOVE THAT AT SOME
POINT. THE PROBLEM IS WE ARE TRYING TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN FROM THE
W/NW AND THAT TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD MUCH...MAY SOME MID CLOUDS
AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR VIRGA IN SOUTHERN MN. SOME OF THE WRF
SOLUTIONS WE HAVE ACCESS TO GENERATE LIGHT AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN IOWA. NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR MOISTURE HERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS
NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF
NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS
WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE.
GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT
AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR
WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT
30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE
MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN
HOLD TOGETHER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS.
MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.
AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.
THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS
NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF
NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS
WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE.
GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT
AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR
WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT
30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE
MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN
HOLD TOGETHER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS.
MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RFW
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...WHICH INDICATES NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR A HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND
FIRE ZONE 209. AFTER A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS...FORECAST TD/S WERE LOWER SLIGHTLY...IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING. THUS LOCALIZED
AREAS OF 15-20% RH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL
IN QUESTION HOWEVER AND WHEN USING A HYBRID BLEND OF THE HRRR 80M
WIND GUST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
WHERE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 25 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MINIMUM RH IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SO ALL IN ALL...TODAY
WE/RE ANTICIPATING NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT A RFW IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.
AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DRAWS DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM
ALOFT...BUT PEAK GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN AT 20KTS OR LESS.
THESE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE SETTING SUN. OTHERWISE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A 30KT INCREASE IN 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR AT KVTN...KANW...AND POSSIBLY KTIF NEAR DAWN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE
AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST
THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD
KEEP WINDS UP ACRS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS...AND WITH A DEEP SNOW
PACK...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL RH
LATELY...AND THIS WAS SEEN ON THE KILN 12Z SOUNDING IN WHICH THE
GFS HAD A MUCH HIGHER RH THAN REALITY. BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
GROSSLY OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THEY
TRY TO DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS. THIS HAS TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS
(KEEPING IT WARMER) AS WELL AS THE WINDS AND CURRENT SNOW COVER.
THE RAP IS NOT AS MOIST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...AM FORECASTING JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. HAVE
COOLED LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
THESE LOCATIONS TEND TO DECOUPLE...AND EVEN MORE SO WITH SNOW
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS STATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS ARE
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL RH AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF. WE SHOULD STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WAA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BELIEVE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
THE LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS MORE A
REFLECTION OF ITS HIGH RH BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONCUR AND GENERATE WEAK PCPN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THE
PROSPECTS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A
HUGE PART ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE IN A WAA
PATTERN WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FETCH WITH SOME
GUSTINESS. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE HIGH RH BIAS AND THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO KEEP
SKIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN THEIR IS A SNOW COVER
DESPITE GOOD WAA. SO...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE ECMWF WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODELS/MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CLOUDS TO REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM/GFS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL CAA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE CAA. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF MODELS SO AS NOT TO BIAS FROM ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM
TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PATTERN WITH THE AREA. THOUGH SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE KY/TN
AREA...WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
BROUGHT SHOWERS UP TO FCST AREA AND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
GENERALLY WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK
UPWARD. STARTED OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...THOUGH SOME WARMING AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING AMPLE WAA.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A WARM/WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALL
SHOW IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE ALL
PERFORMED POORLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE SREF CIG PROBABILITIES DON`T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR IFR
TOMORROW MORNING BUT DO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED LIFT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAFS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HAINES