Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO ALREADY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. UPDATED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE COLDER START TO THE
MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE DENVER AREA DUE TO UPSLOPE BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH WITH SLIGHTLY MORE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND UNDER SNOW BANDS. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS STILL HAVE NOT CAUGHT ON TO THE LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...SO EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN
THE MODELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW IS OVER BOULDER...LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES. MORNING SOUNDING AT KDNR SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
UP TO ABOUT 550 MB. SO ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW FOR A
SHORT TIME.
HEAVIEST SNOW AND BEST COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES ADDITIONAL
LIFT. IN ADDITION TO THIS...A SECONDARY PUSH FROM THE NORTH MAY
PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVIER SNOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF SLIGHTLY SLOWING THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
THIS LOOKS CORRECT SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN BY 3-6 HOURS. COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH DENVER BY ABOUT 7 AM. ONE GOOD SHOWER BAND HAS FORMED
AROUND CHEYENNE BUT IS TIED TO THE UPPER FEATURES...NOT THE COLD
FRONT. AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY DRYING FROM THE WEST OVERALL AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SHALLOW SHOWER BANDS AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO CONTINUE ON THE RIDGES. SO FOR
THIS MORNING THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL BE LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. I REDUCED
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
DEEPENS WHILE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT RANGE. THERE IS COOLING ALOFT WITH DESTABILIZATION AND THE
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING. PRETTY
GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...PLUS THE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RESPONSE TO
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING...NOT SUPER UNSTABLE BUT A
DEEP LAYER OF WEAK STABILITY. FOR THIS REASON PLANNING ON DECENT
ENHANCEMENT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
PRETTY GOOD OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE THERE IS BOTH INSTABILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED THE MOUNTAIN WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE FOOTHILLS...DENVER/BOULDER AND DOUGLAS AND ELBERT
COUNTIES WHERE THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOPING THE HEAVIEST TIME FOR DENVER WILL
BE AFTER RUSH HOUR...BUT AT A MINIMUM THINGS WILL LIKELY BE GOING
DOWNHILL WITH SOME SNOWFALL AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE ADVISORY MAY WIND UP NEEDING ONE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WIND ON THE PLAINS LASTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THERE IS
MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND.
SNOW WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE LIGHT SNOW IN DENVER ALL NIGHT. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FRONT TIMING...BUT
THEY WILL BE COLDER THIS AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
MAIN AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ERN CO WED
MORNING AND THEN BE EAST OF AREA BY 18Z. CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU MID MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FM DENVER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE RGN BY AFTN WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY A A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE MTNS. AFTN HIGHS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL
AS READINGS OVER NERN CO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
ON THU A WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE HAS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY.
AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C BY LATE
AFTN SO SHOULD SEE READINGS WRM INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE OVER
NERN CO WITH LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER. FOR FRI DRY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH 850-700 MB TEMPS RISING ANOTHER 3-
DEGREES C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE OVER NERN CO.
OVER THE WEEKEND NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THUS MAY SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AND EVENING AS A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS. OVER NERN CO A COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FNT SO WILL
KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER
THE PLAINS ON SAT AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUN WITH READINGS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NWLY WITH NOT MUCH
MOISTURE SHOWN SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NERN CO ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE DENVER AREA AFTER 21Z.
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2-5 MILES THROUGH 21Z AND THEN
LOWER. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2000 TODAY AND BE LOWER
TONIGHT. POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A HALF
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY SHIFT EASTERLY FOR A SHORT
TIME BUT WILL BOUNCE BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SECOND
PUSH FROM THE NORTH AROUND 03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036-039>041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1037 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING
FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHARP NORTHERN
CUTOFF TO THE SNOW. THESE MODEL FORECASTS...IN COMBINATION WITH
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE GIVEN SOME ADDED CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHERNMOST
AREAS OF MASSACHUSETTS. HAVE REDUCED POPS AND HAVE TRIMMED
SNOWFALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT THERE IS NONE FORECAST FOR FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...WORCESTER...MIDDLESEX...AND ESSEX
COUNTIES. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE NAM HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED
ITS TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT SINCE IT IS
LIKELY TO START AS MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE NOT CHANGED THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AT THIS
TIME...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS AND WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES...AFTER DROPPING TO THE MID 30S...HAVE RISEN TO THE
UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.
WILL BE WATCHING THE SITUATION CLOSELY...IN CASE SNOWFALL FORECAST
AMOUNTS NEED TO BE LOWERED. FOR NOW THEY SEEM REASONABLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ISLANDS /4 TO 7
INCHES/. OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ON LOWER END OF THAT RANGE
BASED UPON MODEL CONSENSUS. WE WILL CONVERT WINTER STORM WATCH ON
S COASTAL RI/MA TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY /2 TO 5 INCHES/ WITH
HIGHER TOTALS FOCUSED ON COAST AND CAPE COD AND LOWER END OF RANGE
CLOSER TO PROVIDENCE.
THERE ARE SEVERAL RED FLAGS TO CONSIDER AGAINST GOING WITH OVERLY
HIGH AMOUNTS INCLUDING BEING ABLE TO OVERCOME INITIALLY WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD NUDGE ON MODELS AND FACT
THAT BEST LIFT IN MAX SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS LIMITED TO LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THU MORNING NEAR S COAST. FACT THAT HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL N OF MASS PIKE MAKES SENSE GIVEN WE EXPECT
A SHARP GRADIENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM...SO IF ANYTHING
SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG AND N OF MASS PIKE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
NOTE PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS WILL SHOW RATHER LARGE RANGE
/IE FEW INCHES TO NEARLY A FOOT ON NANTUCKET/ DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW FAR CLOSE OR
OFFSHORE DOES AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF LIE. THIS LEADS US TO PLAY
FORECAST MORE CONSERVATIVELY DUE TO REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.
FOR THOSE WONDERING ABOUT BOS SNOWFALL RECORD...WE NEED 1.9 INCHES
TO TIE 1995-96. OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS ABOUT 0.7 INCH AT BOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOCUS FOR STEADIER SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND THU
MORNING WITH RAPID DRYING FROM NW BRINGING CLEARING TO INTERIOR BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING DAY ACROSS S
COASTAL RI/MA AND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH LESS THAN INCH AS FAR N AS
MASS PIKE. DEFINITELY COLDER DAY AHEAD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN 20S
EXCEPT NEAR 30 ON CAPE AND ISLANDS.
CLEARING SETS IN ACROSS ALL OF REGION THU NIGHT AS SYSTEM HEADS
FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER SHOT OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH LOWS FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS INTERIOR TO TEENS CLOSER TO COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY
* MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
* UNCERTAIN FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
INTO THIS WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...AND IS OFF ON ITS OWN IN DOING
SO. AT THIS POINT...AM FAVORING A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE DUE TO FAIRLY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS THE MAIN THEME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE A COLD FRONT CAN GET
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MID WEEK.
FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AS A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP LOWER TEMPERATURES...
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THIS WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE PUSHES LOW PRESSURE THROUGH QUEBEC...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT
THIS POINT...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MOISTURE-
STARVED...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW. 04/12Z GFS IS FASTER TO
WARM UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THAN BOTH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE
04/12Z ECMWF. WHILE THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
HIGHER...AM NOT YET SOLD ON THE GFS TIMING. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
POCKETS OF IFR PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE.
MVFR/IFR SPREADS N IN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...PROBABLY AS FAR N AS
KBDL-KSFZ-KBOS...MAINLY DUE TO VSBY. LIGHT RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET
AND SNOW CLOSER TO S COAST AFTER 06Z WHERE LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH
DAYBREAK THU. VFR CIGS FARTHER N AND W. MVFR CIGS ALSO SPREADING
FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO WESTERN MA AND WESTERN CT BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THU FROM NW TO SE...WITH CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LAST TO IMPROVE 16Z-20Z.
EXPECTED GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
BOS/BAF/BDL/BED/ORH...1 INCH OR LESS
PVD...2 INCHES
FMH/HYA...3-4 INCHES
ACK...5-7 INCHES
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINTAINING SCA ON OUTER WATERS AND BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS
PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THU OR THU NIGHT.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS S OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW AND
POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO
SLEET AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOWEST VSBY FROM MIDNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING.
SNOW SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT S COASTAL WATERS THU BEFORE HEADING
OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO REGION MAY BRING
PERIOD OF 25KT NW WIND GUSTS THU NIGHT...MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEY THEN INCREASE AGAIN...BUT
ONLY MODESTLY OVER THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ020>022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ003>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ235-237-250- 254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD/GAF
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/JWD/GAF
MARINE...BELK/JWD/GAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.
545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.
OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.
THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK..
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.
MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.
THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.
THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.
WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
101>106.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012-015.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...TEMPS REACHED THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT REACHING 85 DEGREES...ONE
DEGREE SHY OF TYING TODAY`S RECORD. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND IT WILL BE A VERY STICKY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
APALACHEE BAY AREA HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NARRE DEPICT THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS DRIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL AND GA COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS
WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN AND AROUND
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR COASTAL GA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG
IMPACTING TAF SITES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME
AND LINGERING UNTIL THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME BEFORE LIFTING. 2000 FEET
WINDS TONIGHT EXPECT TO INCREASE SW 25-30 KNOTS BY 09-12Z BUT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW. FLOW WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SWELL.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 83 44 46 / 0 60 60 40
SSI 62 78 47 48 / 0 20 30 40
JAX 63 85 52 52 / 0 10 20 30
SGJ 65 82 57 57 / 0 0 20 30
GNV 63 85 57 60 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 63 85 60 66 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/SHULER/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN TAFS...MVFR
CREEPING UP TO MCN/CSG. MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SEE VFR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN TAFS WILL REMAIN
IFR TO AT BEST BRIEFLY LOW MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAFS AND CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS
AS LOW AS 002...WITH GRADUAL LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFTING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL CIGS.
HIGH ON WINDS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 49 72 54 / 60 30 10 70
ATLANTA 60 55 70 45 / 60 20 20 70
BLAIRSVILLE 54 47 62 42 / 70 70 50 70
CARTERSVILLE 55 52 69 40 / 60 40 40 70
COLUMBUS 75 60 75 54 / 30 10 10 60
GAINESVILLE 51 47 67 47 / 60 50 30 70
MACON 67 58 77 59 / 20 20 5 50
ROME 58 53 68 37 / 60 50 50 70
PEACHTREE CITY 63 56 71 48 / 50 20 20 70
VIDALIA 69 62 79 62 / 20 10 5 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.
20
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. WEDGING HAS STARTED
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/HEAVY DRIZZLE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. LOW CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IFR EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 49 72 54 / 60 50 40 70
ATLANTA 60 55 70 45 / 60 40 50 70
BLAIRSVILLE 54 47 62 42 / 70 70 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 55 52 69 40 / 60 50 60 70
COLUMBUS 75 60 75 54 / 30 20 30 60
GAINESVILLE 51 47 67 47 / 60 50 50 70
MACON 67 58 77 59 / 30 20 20 50
ROME 58 53 68 37 / 60 60 70 70
PEACHTREE CITY 63 56 71 48 / 50 30 40 70
VIDALIA 69 62 79 62 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. WEDGING HAS STARTED
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/HEAVY DRIZZLE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. LOW CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IFR EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 51 49 72 54 / 60 50 40 70
ATLANTA 59 55 70 45 / 60 40 50 70
BLAIRSVILLE 49 47 62 42 / 70 70 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 54 52 69 40 / 60 50 60 70
COLUMBUS 74 60 75 54 / 30 20 30 60
GAINESVILLE 49 47 67 47 / 60 50 50 70
MACON 66 58 77 59 / 30 20 20 50
ROME 57 53 68 37 / 60 60 70 70
PEACHTREE CITY 62 56 71 48 / 50 30 40 70
VIDALIA 68 62 79 62 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.
20
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WEDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN...SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS TODAY. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR DOES BRING A PATCH OF PRECIP ACROSS ATL BETWEEN
11Z AND 16Z...SO TRIED TO TIME THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. CIGS MAY
TRY AND LIFT TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GO
IFR AFTER DARK AGAIN. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A FROPA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 51 49 72 54 / 60 50 40 70
ATLANTA 59 55 70 45 / 60 40 50 70
BLAIRSVILLE 49 47 62 42 / 70 70 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 54 52 69 40 / 60 50 60 70
COLUMBUS 74 60 75 54 / 30 20 30 60
GAINESVILLE 49 47 67 47 / 60 50 50 70
MACON 66 58 77 59 / 30 20 20 50
ROME 57 53 68 37 / 60 60 70 70
PEACHTREE CITY 62 56 71 48 / 50 30 40 70
VIDALIA 68 62 79 62 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.
VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
EVENING UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK... SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /39
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 259 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO WEAK
RIDGING AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS
AND RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. ZERO SBCAPE TO SPEAK OF TOMORROW
BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MUCAPE /LESS THAN 100 J/KG/ SHOWS UP IN PORTIONS
OR NORTH GEORGIA ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM...WHICH OF COURSE TENDS TO BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE ANYWAY. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK DOES NOT HAVE EVEN GENERAL
THUNDER NOSING INTO GEORGIA SO WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT...JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WHICH MAY VERY WELL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON LOWS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES...AND
THUS TRENDED A TAD LOWER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGHS TOMORROW NEAR
SEASONAL FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE DAMMING
BUILDING IN THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL CURVE ACROSS
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND AS IT IS CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THOSE AREAS. FOLLOWING THAT...LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE DAMMING AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION HAS INFLUENCED THE COLD
DOME. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECT VERY LITTLE
IF ANY RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
TDP
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 259 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM ESSENTIALLY AS IS. POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING DEPENDS ON
SEVERAL FACTORS...HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR GETS SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AND IT MAY BE HARD
FOR THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
STATE. THICKNESS PROFILES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WITH SOME SNOW INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OKAY
BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DIFFERING UPPER AIR PATTERNS. HAVE ONLY
TWEAKED THE LAST COUPLE OF PERIODS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.
41
PREVIOUS LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 344 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SHOWING THE WORK WEEK DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
FAIRLY WARM PATTERN UNTIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE SHARP SURFACE FRONT
THE SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SEEING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS ALSO STILL HAVE ME A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
STILL INSIST ON BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM SQUEEZING OUT SOME LOW QPF PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWEST THICKNESSES REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A THE SHOT
OF COOL AIR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE HEART OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. MAINLY DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SURGING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP
OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
MAY BE APPROPRIATE.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WEDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN...SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS TODAY. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR DOES BRING A PATCH OF PRECIP ACROSS ATL BETWEEN
11Z AND 16Z...SO TRIED TO TIME THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. CIGS MAY
TRY AND LIFT TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GO
IFR AFTER DARK AGAIN. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A FROPA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 49 48 71 46 / 60 50 70 80
ATLANTA 58 54 69 39 / 60 40 70 80
BLAIRSVILLE 51 48 61 35 / 70 70 80 80
CARTERSVILLE 56 53 67 35 / 60 50 80 80
COLUMBUS 72 58 74 52 / 30 20 70 80
GAINESVILLE 49 46 66 40 / 60 50 80 80
MACON 67 56 76 53 / 30 20 60 80
ROME 58 54 64 33 / 60 60 80 80
PEACHTREE CITY 63 55 71 42 / 50 30 70 80
VIDALIA 67 59 81 61 / 30 20 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
355 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT BAGGY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND USHER IN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR MASS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE INTO THE EARLY-MID EVENING ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS HANGING
AROUND AND LIKELY RESULTING IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS AND HAVE GONE A
BIT ABOVE HOURLY GUIDANCE TEMPS HANGING ONTO 30S INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE BOTTOM DROPS OUT LATE TONIGHT.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING SKIES TO GO CLEAR.
A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LOOK TO BE ON TAP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS POTENTIAL TO GIVE
CHICAGO`S RECORD LOW A RUN FOR ITS MONEY...THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD BE RATHER EXTENSIVE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP A BIT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR FULL FRIGID POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY LATE
NIGHT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR LAST MINUTE DROPS IN TEMPS. ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BE NEAR BY THURSDAY WITH HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS COULD THREATEN
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS. FULL SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH LOWER ALBEDO IN
CHICAGO AND RFD METRO AREAS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHS EVER SO SLIGHTLY UPWARD.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
247 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS THAT SEE TEMPERATURES
CRASH DURING THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH. HIGH DOES SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OFF AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND DID
REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH A TREND TO
NORMAL AND THEN POTENTIALLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG MARCH SUN AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THIS WEEKEND
DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHIPPING AWAY AT THE
DEEP SNOW PACK/GLACIER THAT HAS BLANKETED THE REGION SINCE THE EARLY
FEBRUARY BLIZZARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...THE QUICKER THE SNOW PACK MELTS THE WARMER
TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS A MEAN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OF
THE NATION`S MID SECTION.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890) 12 (1901)
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT BCMG VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT THIS AFTN.
* NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN THROUGH CNTRL IOWA.
CIGS HAVE BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY 005-007 ACROSS THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS HAS TRANSITIONED PCPN OVER TO DZ WHERE SFC
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND FZDZ WHERE TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING. A FEW ISOLD POCKETS OF MORE STEADY RAIN REMAIN...BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. EXPECT THAT MDW/GYY HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED
OVER TO DZ...WHILE ORD/DPA/RFD REMAIN UNDER FZDZ. A SFC WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT IS QUICKLY TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS ALREADY
MOVED INTO WISCONSIN...WITH A 7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
GENERATING WIND GUSTS TO 25KT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE DZ TO
END AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A RELATIVELY SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE PCPN MOVING EWD THROUGH NCNTRL IL. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS
COLDER...DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...EXPECT THAT STRONG ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP
DRIVE NWLY GUSTS TO 25KT TOMORROW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHEN CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL MERGE WITH
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING WESTERLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RETURNING
COLD AIR...WINDS TO 30KT LOOKS REASONABLE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BACK TO 30KT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Freezing rain and sleet developed over western Illinois around
midnight and quickly tracked east over all but extreme southeast
Illinois by 08z/2am. Already seeing the backedge of our second
band of wintry precip entering west central Illinois, so it appears
we will have a brief lull in the freezing rain and sleet. However,
the latest HRRR suggests another band of rain, freezing rain and
sleet will move northeast across our area at or just after dawn
Rainfall rates have not been much with these quick moving bands
of freezing rain/sleet with most areas seeing less than 0.05" per
hour, but certainly enough for some light icing to occur on bridge
decks and overpasses and on lesser traveled roads.
RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest temperatures will rise
above the freezing mark over southeast Illinois by dawn...central
sections of the forecast area by 900 am...and between 10 am and Noon
roughly along and north of the Interstate 74 corridor. By late
morning into the afternoon hours the stronger lift associated with
the low level warm advection/ isentropic ascent shifts off to our
east and southeast with a gradual lowering of POPs warranted from
northwest to southeast. Best 850-700 forcing edges into southeast IL
by mid to late afternoon where our highest POPs will be located.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable for this afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
The cold front currently passing through the forecast area will
stall out south of the Ohio River Valley early Wednesday as it
becomes parallel to the upper-level flow. A 180+ kt jet streak will
be in our vicinity on the cool side of this front/low level
baroclinic zone for much of the day Wednesday. A very small portion
of our forecast area south of I-70 will be at least nicked by the
good frontogenetical forcing/jet dynamics in this flow regime. With
this in mind it is looking like 2-4 inches of snow will fall late
tonight through Wednesday evening across at least Clay, Richland,
and Lawrence counties. There is some model disagreement on where the
axis of heavier snow will set up, and the snow totals may need to
be boosted a little and pushed further north or decreased and pulled
further south depending on future model runs.
The snow threat in southeast IL diminishes later Wednesday night, as
the current system finally pulls away, and another Arctic high
(hopefully the last of the winter) builds into the entire forecast
area. This high will be accompanied by a couple nights of mainly
single digit lows Wednesday night and Thursday night, and highs
mainly in the teens for Thursday.
Temperatures are still expected to gradually moderate beginning
Friday and continuing into next week. High temperatures may actually
be above normal for a change by early next week, with highs in the
50s possible by next Tuesday. The models do not suggest the passage
of any significant system from Thursday-Tuesday, so predominantly
dry weather looks to be the rule through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Mainly LIFR cigs/IFR vsbys in fog and -dz/-ra across central IL
late this morning. Conditions expected to remain steady for a few
more hours before gradual lifting of ceilings during afternoon as
a cold front and drier air approach from the NW. Gradual
improvement to continue from 20Z through 06Z before MVFR ceilings
dissipate to scattered cloud cover. Winds S-SW 15-20 kts with
higher gusts through early afternoon, gradually shifting to NW
through evening and decreasing to 10-15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
151 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
1022 AM CST
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SHOULD SEE
PRECIP TAPER TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH JUST SOME INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINTER WX
ADVISORY COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS AND MAKE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THAT.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE DEALING WITH PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
SHOULD START TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING ON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOTED ON RADAR ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UPSTREAM. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80...BUT PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE WI STATE LINE WHICH
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING. H9-H8 LAYER MAX WET BULB TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 12Z...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY 15Z AT WHICH POINT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE IS
INITIALIZING TOO COLD WITH SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING...AND SOME
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM SEEM TO HOLD ON TO FREEZING TEMPS TOO
LONG...SO FEEL THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...THOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE ISSUES
PARTICULARLY WITH THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK 13-15Z
AND THROUGH 15-17Z THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD LIFT UP TO THE STATE
LINE MARKING THE END OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT. MEANWHILE...LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP TAPERING TO A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION IN PLACE
TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP AND THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT FOR NOW
CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION
WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST
CWA...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT REBOUND MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOWER
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW WESTERN
COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BELOW ZERO...THOUGH A MODEST GRADIENT AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER IN EASTERN COUNTIES MAY PROP UP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATER ON THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS LEVELING OFF OR RISING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRONT IS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED SO MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IF IT
DOESNT COME THROUGH DRY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED OR BROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB/BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WSWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT UNTIL FROPA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WIND SHIFTING TO WNWLY OVERNIGHT AND NWLY
TOMORROW GUSTING TO 20KT.
* IFR VIS IN -DZ/BR FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...IMPROVING TO MVFR IN
BR UNTIL FROPA.
* IFR CIGS UNTIL FROPA...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN THROUGH CNTRL IOWA.
CIGS HAVE BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY 005-007 ACROSS THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS HAS TRANSITIONED PCPN OVER TO DZ WHERE SFC
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND FZDZ WHERE TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING. A FEW ISOLD POCKETS OF MORE STEADY RAIN REMAIN...BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. EXPECT THAT MDW/GYY HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED
OVER TO DZ...WHILE ORD/DPA/RFD REMAIN UNDER FZDZ. A SFC WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT IS QUICKLY TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS ALREADY
MOVED INTO WISCONSIN...WITH A 7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
GENERATING WIND GUSTS TO 25KT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE DZ TO
END AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A RELATIVELY SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE PCPN MOVING EWD THROUGH NCNTRL IL. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS
COLDER...DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...EXPECT THAT STRONG ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP
DRIVE NWLY GUSTS TO 25KT TOMORROW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PCPN ENDING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
214 AM CST
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN FORECAST REMAINS IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
LAKES BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KT...ARE EXPECTED ON MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST INITIALLY AND MORE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 25-30 KT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND
BACK SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE HIGH RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS
ONTARIO. 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLIES LIKELY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE LOW TRAILS
A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOWS WINDS
TO RELAX A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE 25-30 KT WINDS.
RECENT POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO BE MAINLY OPEN WATER OR THIN
ICE FLOES...THUS HAVE INCLUDED WAVE FORECAST FOR ILLINOIS WATERS
WHILE INDIANA SHORE APPEARS TO REMAIN LARGELY ICE-COVERED. THE SAME
GOES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Temperatures have risen above 32 degrees at all sites with an
immediate threat for precipitation this morning, with all sites
expected above freezing in the next hour, therefore the winter
weather advisory has been allowed to expire. Temperatures expected
to continue to rise to the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon as
central Illinois remains in the warm sector of the current system.
Winds breezy S-SW 10-20 mph with dewpoints well into the 30s will
help melt the light ice accumulations off. Scattered light showers
continue to stream into the area from the southwest and this will
continue until after a cold front moves in from the northwest
later this afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Freezing rain and sleet developed over western Illinois around
midnight and quickly tracked east over all but extreme southeast
Illinois by 08z/2am. Already seeing the back edge of our second
band of wintry precip entering west central Illinois, so it appears
we will have a brief lull in the freezing rain and sleet. However,
the latest HRRR suggests another band of rain, freezing rain and
sleet will move northeast across our area at or just after dawn.
Rainfall rates have not been much with these quick moving bands
of freezing rain/sleet with most areas seeing less than 0.05" per
hour, but certainly enough for some light icing to occur on bridge
decks and overpasses and on lesser traveled roads.
RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest temperatures will rise
above the freezing mark over southeast Illinois by dawn...central
sections of the forecast area by 900 am...and between 10 am and Noon
roughly along and north of the Interstate 74 corridor. By late
morning into the afternoon hours the stronger lift associated with
the low level warm advection/ isentropic ascent shifts off to our
east and southeast with a gradual lowering of POPs warranted from
northwest to southeast. Best 850-700 forcing edges into southeast IL
by mid to late afternoon where our highest POPs will be located.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable for this afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Current system will not fully clear our area until Thursday, as the
trailing end of the cold front becomes parallel to the upper flow
over the Ohio Valley. Most of the evening models keep the threat for
precipitation from about I-70 southward, although the NAM has a
secondary surge on Wednesday afternoon all the way up to about I-72.
Leaning more toward the ECMWF/GFS blend for PoP`s tonight and
Wednesday. Lingering precip north of I-70 should end this evening,
but kept higher PoP`s all night into Wednesday. This evening, most
areas will see the precipitation switch briefly to snow before
ending, with little accumulation. While the transition to snow south
of I-70 occurs late tonight, temperatures will be supportive of all
snow through Wednesday. Greatest snow amounts expected near the Ohio
Valley, but currently think that 1 to 3 inches in southeast Illinois
is likely. Light snow will linger into Wednesday night before ending
late.
The other feature of note is what hopefully will be the last Arctic
blast of the winter. Digging upper trough currently coming into
Manitoba will spread a chunk of unseasonably cold air over much of
the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, with 850 mb temperatures down
into the -18C range by Thursday morning. Highs both days will
struggle to get out of the teens in some areas -- normal highs are
well into the 40s by now -- and lows Thursday morning should be a
few degrees either side of zero. Current indications are that a wind
chill advisory would be needed across the northern CWA Wednesday
night and early Thursday, as the system to our south keeps the winds
up and slows the arrival of high pressure.
Heading into the weekend and early next week, 40s should become more
widespread, and the latest 8-14 day outlook introduces a foreign
concept called "above normal temperatures".
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Mainly LIFR cigs/IFR vsbys in fog and -dz/-ra across central IL
late this morning. Conditions expected to remain steady for a few
more hours before gradual lifting of ceilings during afternoon as
a cold front and drier air approach from the NW. Gradual
improvement to continue from 20Z through 06Z before MVFR ceilings
dissipate to scattered cloud cover. Winds S-SW 15-20 kts with
higher gusts through early afternoon, gradually shifting to NW
through evening and decreasing to 10-15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1153 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
1022 AM CST
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SHOULD SEE
PRECIP TAPER TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH JUST SOME INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINTER WX
ADVISORY COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS AND MAKE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THAT.
IZZI
&&
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE DEALING WITH PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
SHOULD START TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING ON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOTED ON RADAR ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UPSTREAM. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80...BUT PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE WI STATE LINE WHICH
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING. H9-H8 LAYER MAX WET BULB TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 12Z...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY 15Z AT WHICH POINT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE IS
INITIALIZING TOO COLD WITH SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING...AND SOME
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM SEEM TO HOLD ON TO FREEZING TEMPS TOO
LONG...SO FEEL THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...THOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE ISSUES
PARTICULARLY WITH THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK 13-15Z
AND THROUGH 15-17Z THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD LIFT UP TO THE STATE
LINE MARKING THE END OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT. MEANWHILE...LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP TAPERING TO A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION IN PLACE
TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP AND THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT FOR NOW
CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION
WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST
CWA...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT REBOUND MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOWER
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW WESTERN
COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BELOW ZERO...THOUGH A MODEST GRADIENT AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER IN EASTERN COUNTIES MAY PROP UP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATER ON THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS LEVELING OFF OR RISING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRONT IS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED SO MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IF IT
DOESNT COME THROUGH DRY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED OR BROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB/BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE OR OCNL LIGHT RAIN AS
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
* IFR CIGS UNTIL FROPA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN
IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* SSWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT...VEERING TO WLY BY EARLY EVENING...
THEN VEERING NWLY AND GUSTING TO 25KT TOMORROW.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN MN THROUGH CNTRL IOWA.
CIGS HAVE BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY 005-007 ACROSS THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS HAS TRANSITIONED PCPN OVER TO DZ WHERE SFC
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND FZDZ WHERE TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING. A FEW ISOLD POCKETS OF MORE STEADY RAIN REMAIN...BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. EXPECT THAT MDW/GYY HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED
OVER TO DZ...WHILE ORD/DPA/RFD REMAIN UNDER FZDZ. A SFC WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT IS QUICKLY TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND HAS ALREADY
MOVED INTO WISCONSIN...WITH A 7MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
GENERATING WIND GUSTS TO 25KT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE DZ TO
END AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A RELATIVELY SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE PCPN MOVING EWD THROUGH NCNTRL IL. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS
COLDER...DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...EXPECT THAT STRONG ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP
DRIVE NWLY GUSTS TO 25KT TOMORROW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PCPN ENDING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
214 AM CST
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN FORECAST REMAINS IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
LAKES BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KT...ARE EXPECTED ON MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST INITIALLY AND MORE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 25-30 KT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND
BACK SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE HIGH RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS
ONTARIO. 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLIES LIKELY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE LOW TRAILS
A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOWS WINDS
TO RELAX A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE 25-30 KT WINDS.
RECENT POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO BE MAINLY OPEN WATER OR THIN
ICE FLOES...THUS HAVE INCLUDED WAVE FORECAST FOR ILLINOIS WATERS
WHILE INDIANA SHORE APPEARS TO REMAIN LARGELY ICE-COVERED. THE SAME
GOES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Temperatures have risen above 32 degrees at all sites with an
immediate threat for precipitation this morning, with all sites
expected above freezing in the next hour, therefore the winter
weather advisory has been allowed to expire. Temperatures expected
to continue to rise to the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon as
central Illinois remains in the warm sector of the current system.
Winds breezy S-SW 10-20 mph with dewpoints well into the 30s will
help melt the light ice accumulations off. Scattered light showers
continue to stream into the area from the southwest and this will
continue until after a cold front moves in from the northwest
later this afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Freezing rain and sleet developed over western Illinois around
midnight and quickly tracked east over all but extreme southeast
Illinois by 08z/2am. Already seeing the back edge of our second
band of wintry precip entering west central Illinois, so it appears
we will have a brief lull in the freezing rain and sleet. However,
the latest HRRR suggests another band of rain, freezing rain and
sleet will move northeast across our area at or just after dawn.
Rainfall rates have not been much with these quick moving bands
of freezing rain/sleet with most areas seeing less than 0.05" per
hour, but certainly enough for some light icing to occur on bridge
decks and overpasses and on lesser traveled roads.
RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest temperatures will rise
above the freezing mark over southeast Illinois by dawn...central
sections of the forecast area by 900 am...and between 10 am and Noon
roughly along and north of the Interstate 74 corridor. By late
morning into the afternoon hours the stronger lift associated with
the low level warm advection/ isentropic ascent shifts off to our
east and southeast with a gradual lowering of POPs warranted from
northwest to southeast. Best 850-700 forcing edges into southeast IL
by mid to late afternoon where our highest POPs will be located.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable for this afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Current system will not fully clear our area until Thursday, as the
trailing end of the cold front becomes parallel to the upper flow
over the Ohio Valley. Most of the evening models keep the threat for
precipitation from about I-70 southward, although the NAM has a
secondary surge on Wednesday afternoon all the way up to about I-72.
Leaning more toward the ECMWF/GFS blend for PoP`s tonight and
Wednesday. Lingering precip north of I-70 should end this evening,
but kept higher PoP`s all night into Wednesday. This evening, most
areas will see the precipitation switch briefly to snow before
ending, with little accumulation. While the transition to snow south
of I-70 occurs late tonight, temperatures will be supportive of all
snow through Wednesday. Greatest snow amounts expected near the Ohio
Valley, but currently think that 1 to 3 inches in southeast Illinois
is likely. Light snow will linger into Wednesday night before ending
late.
The other feature of note is what hopefully will be the last Arctic
blast of the winter. Digging upper trough currently coming into
Manitoba will spread a chunk of unseasonably cold air over much of
the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, with 850 mb temperatures down
into the -18C range by Thursday morning. Highs both days will
struggle to get out of the teens in some areas -- normal highs are
well into the 40s by now -- and lows Thursday morning should be a
few degrees either side of zero. Current indications are that a wind
chill advisory would be needed across the northern CWA Wednesday
night and early Thursday, as the system to our south keeps the winds
up and slows the arrival of high pressure.
Heading into the weekend and early next week, 40s should become more
widespread, and the latest 8-14 day outlook introduces a foreign
concept called "above normal temperatures".
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MVFR cigs expected to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR this morning as the
freezing rain/drizzle continues. We expect a change over to light
rain at SPI between 14z-16z, CMI between 15z-17z and BMI and PIA
between 17z-18z. IFR to LIFR cigs will continue this afternoon
along with some light rain at times with short term models
suggesting a slight improvement to MVFR cigs after 21z as drier
air works east into the region. However, will continue with MVFR
cigs thru at least 02z this evening. Surface winds at all sites
will become south and increase to between 12 and 17 kts by 16z
with gusts in the 20-23kt range into the afternoon hours. We will
see the direction begin to veer more into the southwest and west
as a cold front approaches the area this afternoon and then into
the northwest at 10 to 15 kts just after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE DEALING WITH PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
SHOULD START TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING ON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOTED ON RADAR ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UPSTREAM. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80...BUT PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE WI STATE LINE WHICH
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING. H9-H8 LAYER MAX WET BULB TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 12Z...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY 15Z AT WHICH POINT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE IS
INITIALIZING TOO COLD WITH SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING...AND SOME
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM SEEM TO HOLD ON TO FREEZING TEMPS TOO
LONG...SO FEEL THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...THOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE ISSUES
PARTICULARLY WITH THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK 13-15Z
AND THROUGH 15-17Z THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD LIFT UP TO THE STATE
LINE MARKING THE END OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT. MEANWHILE...LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP TAPERING TO A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION IN PLACE
TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP AND THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT FOR NOW
CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION
WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST
CWA...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT REBOUND MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOWER
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW WESTERN
COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BELOW ZERO...THOUGH A MODEST GRADIENT AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER IN EASTERN COUNTIES MAY PROP UP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATER ON THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS LEVELING OFF OR RISING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRONT IS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED SO MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IF IT
DOESNT COME THROUGH DRY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED OR BROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB/BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY TURNING
TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS AND HIGHER VSBYS LATE AFTN AND
EVENING.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT REMAIN GUSTY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES FROM ORD
NORTH/NORTHWEST. NORTHERN TERMINALS...RFD...DPA...ORD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONALLY LOWER VIS/CIG CONDITIONS RESULTING. FARTHER SOUTH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS IS RESULTING IN LIGHTER PRECIP WHICH
WILL AFFECT MDW/GYY...AND MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A FZRA/FZDZ TREND
RATHER THAN SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AT THOSE LOCATIONS.
IN ANY CASE...WARMING ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN PRECIP FROM SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
EVENTUALLY TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT BUT
WILL INCREASE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY LATE MORNING...
BACKING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS WEST THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT LINGERING INTO
TONIGHT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE CHANGES AND CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS...AND IN MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS BY THIS
EVENING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
214 AM CST
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN FORECAST REMAINS IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
LAKES BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KT...ARE EXPECTED ON MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST INITIALLY AND MORE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 25-30 KT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND
BACK SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE HIGH RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS
ONTARIO. 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLIES LIKELY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE LOW TRAILS
A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOWS WINDS
TO RELAX A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE 25-30 KT WINDS.
RECENT POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO BE MAINLY OPEN WATER OR THIN
ICE FLOES...THUS HAVE INCLUDED WAVE FORECAST FOR ILLINOIS WATERS
WHILE INDIANA SHORE APPEARS TO REMAIN LARGELY ICE-COVERED. THE SAME
GOES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
507 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Freezing rain and sleet developed over western Illinois around
midnight and quickly tracked east over all but extreme southeast
Illinois by 08z/2am. Already seeing the back edge of our second
band of wintry precip entering west central Illinois, so it appears
we will have a brief lull in the freezing rain and sleet. However,
the latest HRRR suggests another band of rain, freezing rain and
sleet will move northeast across our area at or just after dawn.
Rainfall rates have not been much with these quick moving bands
of freezing rain/sleet with most areas seeing less than 0.05" per
hour, but certainly enough for some light icing to occur on bridge
decks and overpasses and on lesser traveled roads.
RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest temperatures will rise
above the freezing mark over southeast Illinois by dawn...central
sections of the forecast area by 900 am...and between 10 am and Noon
roughly along and north of the Interstate 74 corridor. By late
morning into the afternoon hours the stronger lift associated with
the low level warm advection/ isentropic ascent shifts off to our
east and southeast with a gradual lowering of POPs warranted from
northwest to southeast. Best 850-700 forcing edges into southeast IL
by mid to late afternoon where our highest POPs will be located.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable for this afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Current system will not fully clear our area until Thursday, as the
trailing end of the cold front becomes parallel to the upper flow
over the Ohio Valley. Most of the evening models keep the threat for
precipitation from about I-70 southward, although the NAM has a
secondary surge on Wednesday afternoon all the way up to about I-72.
Leaning more toward the ECMWF/GFS blend for PoP`s tonight and
Wednesday. Lingering precip north of I-70 should end this evening,
but kept higher PoP`s all night into Wednesday. This evening, most
areas will see the precipitation switch briefly to snow before
ending, with little accumulation. While the transition to snow south
of I-70 occurs late tonight, temperatures will be supportive of all
snow through Wednesday. Greatest snow amounts expected near the Ohio
Valley, but currently think that 1 to 3 inches in southeast Illinois
is likely. Light snow will linger into Wednesday night before ending
late.
The other feature of note is what hopefully will be the last Arctic
blast of the winter. Digging upper trough currently coming into
Manitoba will spread a chunk of unseasonably cold air over much of
the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, with 850 mb temperatures down
into the -18C range by Thursday morning. Highs both days will
struggle to get out of the teens in some areas -- normal highs are
well into the 40s by now -- and lows Thursday morning should be a
few degrees either side of zero. Current indications are that a wind
chill advisory would be needed across the northern CWA Wednesday
night and early Thursday, as the system to our south keeps the winds
up and slows the arrival of high pressure.
Heading into the weekend and early next week, 40s should become more
widespread, and the latest 8-14 day outlook introduces a foreign
concept called "above normal temperatures".
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MVFR cigs expected to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR this morning as the
freezing rain/drizzle continues. We expect a change over to light
rain at SPI between 14z-16z, CMI between 15z-17z and BMI and PIA
between 17z-18z. IFR to LIFR cigs will continue this afternoon
along with some light rain at times with short term models
suggesting a slight improvement to MVFR cigs after 21z as drier
air works east into the region. However, will continue with MVFR
cigs thru at least 02z this evening. Surface winds at all sites
will become south and increase to between 12 and 17 kts by 16z
with gusts in the 20-23kt range into the afternoon hours. We will
see the direction begin to veer more into the southwest and west
as a cold front approaches the area this afternoon and then into
the northwest at 10 to 15 kts just after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
300 AM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE DEALING WITH PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS RAMPING UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
SHOULD START TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING ON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOTED ON RADAR ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET UPSTREAM. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80...BUT PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE WI STATE LINE WHICH
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING. H9-H8 LAYER MAX WET BULB TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 12Z...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY 15Z AT WHICH POINT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE IS
INITIALIZING TOO COLD WITH SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING...AND SOME
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM SEEM TO HOLD ON TO FREEZING TEMPS TOO
LONG...SO FEEL THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...THOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE ISSUES
PARTICULARLY WITH THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK 13-15Z
AND THROUGH 15-17Z THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD LIFT UP TO THE STATE
LINE MARKING THE END OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT. MEANWHILE...LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH
IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP TAPERING TO A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION IN PLACE
TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP AND THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT FOR NOW
CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION
WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST
CWA...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT REBOUND MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOWER
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
300 AM CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW WESTERN
COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BELOW ZERO...THOUGH A MODEST GRADIENT AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER IN EASTERN COUNTIES MAY PROP UP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATER ON THURSDAY AND RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS LEVELING OFF OR RISING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRONT IS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED SO MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IF IT
DOESNT COME THROUGH DRY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED OR BROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB/BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PREDAWN HOURS...QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE MORNING. TEMPS RISE TO/ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO RAIN/DRIZZLE.
* CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY LINGERING TONIGHT.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES WHILE BACKING SOUTH LATE
THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AND REMAINING
GUSTY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDNIGHT...
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
AND STARTING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS ROUGHLY
10-12Z...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING INITIALLY SNOW...QUICKLY
MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT.
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB TO/ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST IN
A RAPID DETERIORATION OF VFR CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF ONSET. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSITION OF P-TYPES AS
WELL AS CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* HIGH IN WINDS...AND DRY WEATHER WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
214 AM CST
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN FORECAST REMAINS IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
LAKES BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KT...ARE EXPECTED ON MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST INITIALLY AND MORE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 25-30 KT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND
BACK SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE HIGH RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS
ONTARIO. 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLIES LIKELY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE LOW TRAILS
A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOWS WINDS
TO RELAX A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE 25-30 KT WINDS.
RECENT POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO BE MAINLY OPEN WATER OR THIN
ICE FLOES...THUS HAVE INCLUDED WAVE FORECAST FOR ILLINOIS WATERS
WHILE INDIANA SHORE APPEARS TO REMAIN LARGELY ICE-COVERED. THE SAME
GOES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
247 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Freezing rain and sleet developed over western Illinois around
midnight and quickly tracked east over all but extreme southeast
Illinois by 08z/2am. Already seeing the back edge of our second
band of wintry precip entering west central Illinois, so it appears
we will have a brief lull in the freezing rain and sleet. However,
the latest HRRR suggests another band of rain, freezing rain and
sleet will move northeast across our area at or just after dawn.
Rainfall rates have not been much with these quick moving bands
of freezing rain/sleet with most areas seeing less than 0.05" per
hour, but certainly enough for some light icing to occur on bridge
decks and overpasses and on lesser traveled roads.
RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest temperatures will rise
above the freezing mark over southeast Illinois by dawn...central
sections of the forecast area by 900 am...and between 10 am and Noon
roughly along and north of the Interstate 74 corridor. By late
morning into the afternoon hours the stronger lift associated with
the low level warm advection/ isentropic ascent shifts off to our
east and southeast with a gradual lowering of POPs warranted from
northwest to southeast. Best 850-700 forcing edges into southeast IL
by mid to late afternoon where our highest POPs will be located.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable for this afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Current system will not fully clear our area until Thursday, as the
trailing end of the cold front becomes parallel to the upper flow
over the Ohio Valley. Most of the evening models keep the threat for
precipitation from about I-70 southward, although the NAM has a
secondary surge on Wednesday afternoon all the way up to about I-72.
Leaning more toward the ECMWF/GFS blend for PoP`s tonight and
Wednesday. Lingering precip north of I-70 should end this evening,
but kept higher PoP`s all night into Wednesday. This evening, most
areas will see the precipitation switch briefly to snow before
ending, with little accumulation. While the transition to snow south
of I-70 occurs late tonight, temperatures will be supportive of all
snow through Wednesday. Greatest snow amounts expected near the Ohio
Valley, but currently think that 1 to 3 inches in southeast Illinois
is likely. Light snow will linger into Wednesday night before ending
late.
The other feature of note is what hopefully will be the last Arctic
blast of the winter. Digging upper trough currently coming into
Manitoba will spread a chunk of unseasonably cold air over much of
the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, with 850 mb temperatures down
into the -18C range by Thursday morning. Highs both days will
struggle to get out of the teens in some areas -- normal highs are
well into the 40s by now -- and lows Thursday morning should be a
few degrees either side of zero. Current indications are that a wind
chill advisory would be needed across the northern CWA Wednesday
night and early Thursday, as the system to our south keeps the winds
up and slows the arrival of high pressure.
Heading into the weekend and early next week, 40s should become more
widespread, and the latest 8-14 day outlook introduces a foreign
concept called "above normal temperatures".
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Freezing rain and sleet is still expected to move into the area
and effect all the TAFs in the next 1 to 3 hours, starting in SPI
and PIA and then move east. The pcpn will start as a mix of FZRA
and PL given how dry the lower layers are. Then in a few hours, it
will change over to all FZRA and then last until morning, when the
temp rises to above freezing. Expecting the FZRA to last around
4hrs at each site. Cigs and vis will be VFR to start but then drop
into the IFR category later overnight. The rain will end at the
sites late afternoon or early evening as the front moves through.
Winds will be southeast and then become south during the morning,
then become westerly when the front moves through. Could be some
gusts to around 22kts in the morning and afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
215 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
758 PM CST
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER COLORADO
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL
REACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MID-DAY TUESDAY AND MERGE WITH A
STRONGER LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO. PRECIP WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD INITIALLY FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY
TURN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE ZERO ALOFT
AND WE LOSE SATURATION IN THE DGZ. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IS.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLIER IN THE SHIFT FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND SOME
FORM OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. IT COULD
BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF WET SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE TRANSITION
BEGINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE MODELS A SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION. WE ARE COMING OUT OF A PRETTY COLD AIR
MASS..AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING NOT VERY CLOSE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AREA WIDE.
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES COUPLED
WITH A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE WOULD SUGGEST MODEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THIS TIME WHEN
THE LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) TEMPERATURES ARE HEADING ABOVE
FREEZING. SOME OF THE RECENT NAM/GFS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE FOR THIS PERIOD SUGGESTING THAT SNOW/SLEET MAY
DOMINATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH
TOWARD WISCONSIN... AND IF PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE A BIT
HEAVIER THIS MAY SLOW THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. BUT THE SIGNAL IS
STILL THERE FOR A SNOW-SLEET-FZRA TRANSITION AND ICE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL.
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IS IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW FAR NORTH THE IMPACTS ARE FELT. ICE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LEAST NORTH TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND IN THE
ROCKFORD AREA WHERE IT MAY JUST BE AN ALL SNOW/SLEET SITUATION
WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE TECHNICALLY SATISFIED. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE RUSH-HOUR TIME...FEEL IT IS THE SAFER CALL
WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET AS WELL. AND IN NW INDIANA...THE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED HERE WHERE THERE IS HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT IT WILL BE A RACE AGAINST SURFACE TEMPS
AS WELL WHICH LOOK TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/GEM ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SNOW/SLEET SOLUTION IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION TIME FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF I-80 WILL OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK BASED ON THE NAM AND
EARLY LOOKS AT THE RAP CLOSE TO THAT TIME FRAME. IT WOULD LIKELY
BE AFTER 6-7 AM WHEN THAT TRANSITION OCCURS IN THE METRO
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT TIMING IS NOT SUPER HIGH.
WHILE WE ARE LOSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE
GETTING SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
US TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE A
SNOW-RAIN MIX IN THE NW...LIKELY RAIN IN THE SE...WITH EVEN SOME
-SN/DZ/FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT COLDER
CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BOTTOMING OUT AT OR BELOW ZERO. WITH THE HIGH STILL TO THE
EAST...WIND CHILLS...YES WE ARE STILL DISCUSSING WIND CHILLS IN
EARLY MARCH...GET DOWN TO -10 TO -20 BELOW. A CLIMATE SECTION TO
THE AFD WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY COLD AS A 1040 MB ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND -18 CELSIUS...THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...FOLLOWING A BITTERLY COLD AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL BE
A PROGRESSIVE HIT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY RECOVER BY FRIDAY AS A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE
DEEPER COLD WILL BE AIMED TO OUR NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALSO APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED ORBROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PREDAWN HOURS...QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE MORNING. TEMPS RISE TO/ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO RAIN/DRIZZLE.
* CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY LINGERING TONIGHT.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES WHILE BACKING SOUTH LATE
THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AND REMAINING
GUSTY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDNIGHT...
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
AND STARTING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS ROUGHLY
10-12Z...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING INITIALLY SNOW...QUICKLY
MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT.
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB TO/ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST IN
A RAPID DETERIORATION OF VFR CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF ONSET. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSITION OF P-TYPES AS
WELL AS CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* HIGH IN WINDS...AND DRY WEATHER WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
214 AM CST
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN FORECAST REMAINS IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
LAKES BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KT...ARE EXPECTED ON MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST INITIALLY AND MORE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 25-30 KT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE AND
BACK SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE HIGH RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS
ONTARIO. 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLIES LIKELY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE LOW TRAILS
A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOWS WINDS
TO RELAX A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES REMAIN UP FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE 25-30 KT WINDS.
RECENT POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE TO BE MAINLY OPEN WATER OR THIN
ICE FLOES...THUS HAVE INCLUDED WAVE FORECAST FOR ILLINOIS WATERS
WHILE INDIANA SHORE APPEARS TO REMAIN LARGELY ICE-COVERED. THE SAME
GOES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1200 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
758 PM CST
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER COLORADO
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL
REACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MID-DAY TUESDAY AND MERGE WITH A
STRONGER LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO. PRECIP WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD INITIALLY FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY
TURN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE ZERO ALOFT
AND WE LOSE SATURATION IN THE DGZ. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IS.
JEE
&&
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLIER IN THE SHIFT FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND SOME
FORM OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. IT COULD
BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF WET SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE TRANSITION
BEGINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE MODELS A SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION. WE ARE COMING OUT OF A PRETTY COLD AIR
MASS..AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING NOT VERY CLOSE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AREA WIDE.
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES COUPLED
WITH A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE WOULD SUGGEST MODEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THIS TIME WHEN
THE LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) TEMPERATURES ARE HEADING ABOVE
FREEZING. SOME OF THE RECENT NAM/GFS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE FOR THIS PERIOD SUGGESTING THAT SNOW/SLEET MAY
DOMINATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH
TOWARD WISCONSIN... AND IF PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE A BIT
HEAVIER THIS MAY SLOW THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. BUT THE SIGNAL IS
STILL THERE FOR A SNOW-SLEET-FZRA TRANSITION AND ICE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL.
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IS IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW FAR NORTH THE IMPACTS ARE FELT. ICE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LEAST NORTH TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND IN THE
ROCKFORD AREA WHERE IT MAY JUST BE AN ALL SNOW/SLEET SITUATION
WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE TECHNICALLY SATISFIED. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE RUSH-HOUR TIME...FEEL IT IS THE SAFER CALL
WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET AS WELL. AND IN NW INDIANA...THE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED HERE WHERE THERE IS HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT IT WILL BE A RACE AGAINST SURFACE TEMPS
AS WELL WHICH LOOK TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/GEM ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SNOW/SLEET SOLUTION IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION TIME FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF I-80 WILL OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK BASED ON THE NAM AND
EARLY LOOKS AT THE RAP CLOSE TO THAT TIME FRAME. IT WOULD LIKELY
BE AFTER 6-7 AM WHEN THAT TRANSITION OCCURS IN THE METRO
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT TIMING IS NOT SUPER HIGH.
WHILE WE ARE LOSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE
GETTING SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
US TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE A
SNOW-RAIN MIX IN THE NW...LIKELY RAIN IN THE SE...WITH EVEN SOME
-SN/DZ/FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT COLDER
CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BOTTOMING OUT AT OR BELOW ZERO. WITH THE HIGH STILL TO THE
EAST...WIND CHILLS...YES WE ARE STILL DISCUSSING WIND CHILLS IN
EARLY MARCH...GET DOWN TO -10 TO -20 BELOW. A CLIMATE SECTION TO
THE AFD WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY COLD AS A 1040 MB ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND -18 CELSIUS...THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...FOLLOWING A BITTERLY COLD AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL BE
A PROGRESSIVE HIT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY RECOVER BY FRIDAY AS A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE
DEEPER COLD WILL BE AIMED TO OUR NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALSO APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED ORBROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PREDAWN HOURS...QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE MORNING. TEMPS RISE TO/ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO RAIN/DRIZZLE.
* CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM VFR TO
IFR/LIFR WITH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY LINGERING TONIGHT.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES WHILE BACKING SOUTH LATE
THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AND REMAINING
GUSTY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDNIGHT...
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
AND STARTING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS ROUGHLY
10-12Z...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING INITIALLY SNOW...QUICKLY
MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT.
SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB TO/ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST IN
A RAPID DETERIORATION OF VFR CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF ONSET. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN TIMING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSITION OF P-TYPES AS
WELL AS CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* HIGH IN WINDS...AND DRY WEATHER WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND BE ABSORBED BY STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30 KTS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GALE GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING FREQUENCY IS LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. BUT AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...3
AM TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.
TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 917 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SITES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
FLURRY AT KBMG SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL THE
SITES. AT KLAF EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL THE SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME
HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AT ALL BUT KLAF WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HIGH.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.
TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT KBMG AND WILL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS THERE HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO IFR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KLAF
EXPECT TO SEE NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OFF AND ON
THROUGH AROUND 6Z OR SO. AT KIND EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR WIND GUSTS.
WHILE KIND COULD SEE A FLURRY OR TWO YET DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE ANY MORE SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT CATEGORY...AND HAVE SIMILAR
THOUGHTS ON KHUF. WITH TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP WITH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
110 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
3 HR EXTENSION OF ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING
ACRS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST CWA. SHALLOW INVERSION AFFORDING
SLOWER RECESSION ACRS DEEPER SNOWPACK/MORE DEEPLY ROOTED
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY MARCH SUN PEAKING
HIR ALTITUDES...EXPECT EVENTUAL MIXOUT ACRS ENTIRE CWA TO AOA FZG.
MAR 3 PEAK SOLAR ALTITUDE AT KASW FOR EXAMPLE IS 42 DEGREES WHICH
SHOULD ALSO AFFORD RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF EVEN UNTREATED SFCS IN ALL
BUT INSOLATION SHELTERED LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS JUST
UPSTREAM AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING WITH
MIXED PCPN TYPES BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES ACROSS IL AND IA
AS EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH DID REMOVE THE
INEXPLICABLE ANOMALOUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM GRIDS AND FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING FOR THERMAL PROFILES LIES WITH NAM12 AND
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH THE MORNING. ONLY
REAL ISSUE IS WITH SFC TEMPS AT INITIALIZATION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
ALL HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD WITH FALLING TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEEMINGLY TRYING TO FOLLOW SOME TYPE OF CLIMO BASED
DIURNAL CURVE. SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSETTING EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES. WHILE TEMPS MY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT EXPECTING A 3
TO 5 DEGREE DROP BEFORE RISING AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING.
THUS HAD TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO ACTUAL WARMING.
POWT PROCESS ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WEATHER GRID OUTPUT TODAY USING
RUC13 AND NAM12 AS BASE GRIDS. RESULTS GENERALLY AS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET EARLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY NORTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SLEET. AS MENTIONED...DID REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPS WERE BELOW 32F. TRANSITION ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS PCPN BECOMES FREEZING RAIN ALL AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BREAK IN PCPN MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY BATCH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW IN TRYING TO TIME THIS OUT BUT IS WORTH NOTING AS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK DRY SLOT BUT THIS COULD EASILY FILL IN
THIS MORNING.
SFC TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SO RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AFTER 18Z TO 19Z.
HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT ACTUAL SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY
LAGGING 2M MEASURED AIR TEMPS BY A FEW HOURS DUE TO HOW COLD WE HAVE
BEEN AND FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO AROUND 10 INCHES. THIS IS AN UNKNOWN
FACTOR AND ONE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THUS THIS
COULD KEEP SOME SECONDARY AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS ICY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NO MORE THAN 0.15. SNOW ACCUMS
DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCH STILL POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED 2
INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THESE AMOUNTS CAN STILL VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. STILL WELL
WITHIN GOING ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON QPF TOTALS WITH THIS ENTIRE
EVENT OVER OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR WILL BE TAKEN SOUTH AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO
OUR AREA QUICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH GETS GOING AND STEALS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
END LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY WITH ANY
PCPN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING ICE. HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND WILL DEFER TO DAY
SHIFT TO EVALUATE PCPN TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS OPENED UP SOME...WITH MOST OF THE ICE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BECOME TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MARION TO
LIMA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SNOW STILL APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR TO INVADE THE AREA YET AGAIN. WENT ABOVE THE GFS/MEX 13F AND THE
ECMWF 14F HIGHS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RECENTLY IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES. SO KEPT HIGHS AROUND 16F THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST HIGH AT FT WAYNE FOR THE DATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
AMPLE AFTN SUN ANGLE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PTYPE TO
CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY 19 UTC AT KFWA. CONTD MOISTURE FLUX FROM
SLOW MELTING SNOWPACK AND TOP/DOWN SATURATION TO LIKELY LEND LONG
DURATION IFR CIGS ACRS NRN INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MID.LATE
EAVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CRTNLY ACRS WI INTO FAR ERN IA TO PUSH
EWD THROUGH REGION IN 01-03 UTC TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD LEAD TO
MIXOUT INVERSION TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IMPROVED VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF FCST PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003>005-008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ006-
007.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ078>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016-024-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1123 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
3 HR EXTENSION OF ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING
ACRS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST CWA. SHALLOW INVERSION AFFORDING
SLOWER RECESSION ACRS DEEPER SNOWPACK/MORE DEEPLY ROOTED
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY MARCH SUN PEAKING
HIR ALTITUDES...EXPECT EVENTUAL MIXOUT ACRS ENTIRE CWA TO AOA FZG.
MAR 3 PEAK SOLAR ALTITUDE AT KASW FOR EXAMPLE IS 42 DEGREES WHICH
SHOULD ALSO AFFORD RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF EVEN UNTREATED SFCS IN ALL
BUT INSOLATION SHELTERED LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS JUST
UPSTREAM AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING WITH
MIXED PCPN TYPES BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES ACROSS IL AND IA
AS EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH DID REMOVE THE
INEXPLICABLE ANOMALOUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM GRIDS AND FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING FOR THERMAL PROFILES LIES WITH NAM12 AND
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH THE MORNING. ONLY
REAL ISSUE IS WITH SFC TEMPS AT INITIALIZATION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
ALL HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD WITH FALLING TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEEMINGLY TRYING TO FOLLOW SOME TYPE OF CLIMO BASED
DIURNAL CURVE. SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSETTING EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES. WHILE TEMPS MY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT EXPECTING A 3
TO 5 DEGREE DROP BEFORE RISING AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING.
THUS HAD TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO ACTUAL WARMING.
POWT PROCESS ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WEATHER GRID OUTPUT TODAY USING
RUC13 AND NAM12 AS BASE GRIDS. RESULTS GENERALLY AS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET EARLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY NORTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SLEET. AS MENTIONED...DID REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPS WERE BELOW 32F. TRANSITION ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS PCPN BECOMES FREEZING RAIN ALL AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BREAK IN PCPN MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY BATCH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW IN TRYING TO TIME THIS OUT BUT IS WORTH NOTING AS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK DRY SLOT BUT THIS COULD EASILY FILL IN
THIS MORNING.
SFC TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SO RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AFTER 18Z TO 19Z.
HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT ACTUAL SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY
LAGGING 2M MEASURED AIR TEMPS BY A FEW HOURS DUE TO HOW COLD WE HAVE
BEEN AND FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO AROUND 10 INCHES. THIS IS AN UNKNOWN
FACTOR AND ONE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THUS THIS
COULD KEEP SOME SECONDARY AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS ICY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NO MORE THAN 0.15. SNOW ACCUMS
DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCH STILL POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED 2
INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THESE AMOUNTS CAN STILL VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. STILL WELL
WITHIN GOING ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON QPF TOTALS WITH THIS ENTIRE
EVENT OVER OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR WILL BE TAKEN SOUTH AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO
OUR AREA QUICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH GETS GOING AND STEALS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
END LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY WITH ANY
PCPN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING ICE. HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND WILL DEFER TO DAY
SHIFT TO EVALUATE PCPN TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS OPENED UP SOME...WITH MOST OF THE ICE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BECOME TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MARION TO
LIMA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SNOW STILL APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR TO INVADE THE AREA YET AGAIN. WENT ABOVE THE GFS/MEX 13F AND THE
ECMWF 14F HIGHS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RECENTLY IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES. SO KEPT HIGHS AROUND 16F THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST HIGH AT FT WAYNE FOR THE DATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
FIRST BATCH OF MIXED PCPN COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BRIEF LULL
POSSIBLE AS RADAR RETURNS WEAKEN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS DEVELOPING AND
EXPECT THESE TO MOVE BACK IN SHORTLY. CIGS AND VIS LOWERING
UPSTREAM AS WELL SO EXPECT THIS TREND LATER TODAY. LIGHT ICING
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...LIGHT GLAZE OF AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED WHICH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TONIGHT AND STILL POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FZDZ BUT TOO LOW OF A
CHANCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003>005-008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ006-
007.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ078>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ004-
005-015-016-024-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1039 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS JUST
UPSTREAM AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING WITH
MIXED PCPN TYPES BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES ACROSS IL AND IA
AS EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH DID REMOVE THE
INEXPLICABLE ANOMALOUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM GRIDS AND FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING FOR THERMAL PROFILES LIES WITH NAM12 AND
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH THE MORNING. ONLY
REAL ISSUE IS WITH SFC TEMPS AT INITIALIZATION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
ALL HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD WITH FALLING TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEEMINGLY TRYING TO FOLLOW SOME TYPE OF CLIMO BASED
DIURNAL CURVE. SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSETTING EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES. WHILE TEMPS MY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT EXPECTING A 3
TO 5 DEGREE DROP BEFORE RISING AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING.
THUS HAD TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO ACTUAL WARMING.
POWT PROCESS ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WEATHER GRID OUTPUT TODAY USING
RUC13 AND NAM12 AS BASE GRIDS. RESULTS GENERALLY AS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET EARLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY NORTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SLEET. AS MENTIONED...DID REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPS WERE BELOW 32F. TRANSITION ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS PCPN BECOMES FREEZING RAIN ALL AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BREAK IN PCPN MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY BATCH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW IN TRYING TO TIME THIS OUT BUT IS WORTH NOTING AS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK DRY SLOT BUT THIS COULD EASILY FILL IN
THIS MORNING.
SFC TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SO RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AFTER 18Z TO 19Z.
HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT ACTUAL SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY
LAGGING 2M MEASURED AIR TEMPS BY A FEW HOURS DUE TO HOW COLD WE HAVE
BEEN AND FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO AROUND 10 INCHES. THIS IS AN UNKNOWN
FACTOR AND ONE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THUS THIS
COULD KEEP SOME SECONDARY AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS ICY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NO MORE THAN 0.15. SNOW ACCUMS
DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCH STILL POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED 2
INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THESE AMOUNTS CAN STILL VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. STILL WELL
WITHIN GOING ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON QPF TOTALS WITH THIS ENTIRE
EVENT OVER OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR WILL BE TAKEN SOUTH AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO
OUR AREA QUICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH GETS GOING AND STEALS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
END LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY WITH ANY
PCPN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING ICE. HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND WILL DEFER TO DAY
SHIFT TO EVALUATE PCPN TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS OPENED UP SOME...WITH MOST OF THE ICE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BECOME TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MARION TO
LIMA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SNOW STILL APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR TO INVADE THE AREA YET AGAIN. WENT ABOVE THE GFS/MEX 13F AND THE
ECMWF 14F HIGHS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RECENTLY IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES. SO KEPT HIGHS AROUND 16F THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST HIGH AT FT WAYNE FOR THE DATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
FIRST BATCH OF MIXED PCPN COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BRIEF LULL
POSSIBLE AS RADAR RETURNS WEAKEN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS DEVELOPING AND
EXPECT THESE TO MOVE BACK IN SHORTLY. CIGS AND VIS LOWERING
UPSTREAM AS WELL SO EXPECT THIS TREND LATER TODAY. LIGHT ICING
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...LIGHT GLAZE OF AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED WHICH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TONIGHT AND STILL POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FZDZ BUT TOO LOW OF A
CHANCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
644 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST FREEZING RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE IN
THE FORM OF JUST RAIN. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS SLICK THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS JUST
UPSTREAM AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING WITH
MIXED PCPN TYPES BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES ACROSS IL AND IA
AS EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH DID REMOVE THE
INEXPLICABLE ANOMALOUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM GRIDS AND FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING FOR THERMAL PROFILES LIES WITH NAM12 AND
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH THE MORNING. ONLY
REAL ISSUE IS WITH SFC TEMPS AT INITIALIZATION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
ALL HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD WITH FALLING TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEEMINGLY TRYING TO FOLLOW SOME TYPE OF CLIMO BASED
DIURNAL CURVE. SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSETTING EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES. WHILE TEMPS MY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT EXPECTING A 3
TO 5 DEGREE DROP BEFORE RISING AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING.
THUS HAD TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO ACTUAL WARMING.
POWT PROCESS ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WEATHER GRID OUTPUT TODAY USING
RUC13 AND NAM12 AS BASE GRIDS. RESULTS GENERALLY AS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET EARLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY NORTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SLEET. AS MENTIONED...DID REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPS WERE BELOW 32F. TRANSITION ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS PCPN BECOMES FREEZING RAIN ALL AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BREAK IN PCPN MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY BATCH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW IN TRYING TO TIME THIS OUT BUT IS WORTH NOTING AS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK DRY SLOT BUT THIS COULD EASILY FILL IN
THIS MORNING.
SFC TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SO RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AFTER 18Z TO 19Z.
HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT ACTUAL SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY
LAGGING 2M MEASURED AIR TEMPS BY A FEW HOURS DUE TO HOW COLD WE HAVE
BEEN AND FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO AROUND 10 INCHES. THIS IS AN UNKNOWN
FACTOR AND ONE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THUS THIS
COULD KEEP SOME SECONDARY AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS ICY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NO MORE THAN 0.15. SNOW ACCUMS
DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCH STILL POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED 2
INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THESE AMOUNTS CAN STILL VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. STILL WELL
WITHIN GOING ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON QPF TOTALS WITH THIS ENTIRE
EVENT OVER OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR WILL BE TAKEN SOUTH AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO
OUR AREA QUICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH GETS GOING AND STEALS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
END LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY WITH ANY
PCPN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING ICE. HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND WILL DEFER TO DAY
SHIFT TO EVALUATE PCPN TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS OPENED UP SOME...WITH MOST OF THE ICE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BECOME TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MARION TO
LIMA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SNOW STILL APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR TO INVADE THE AREA YET AGAIN. WENT ABOVE THE GFS/MEX 13F AND THE
ECMWF 14F HIGHS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RECENTLY IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES. SO KEPT HIGHS AROUND 16F THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST HIGH AT FT WAYNE FOR THE DATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
FIRST BATCH OF MIXED PCPN COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BRIEF LULL
POSSIBLE AS RADAR RETURNS WEAKEN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS DEVELOPING AND
EXPECT THESE TO MOVE BACK IN SHORTLY. CIGS AND VIS LOWERING
UPSTREAM AS WELL SO EXPECT THIS TREND LATER TODAY. LIGHT ICING
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...LIGHT GLAZE OF AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED WHICH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TONIGHT AND STILL POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FZDZ BUT TOO LOW OF A
CHANCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
443 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
JUST FREEZING RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE IN
THE FORM OF JUST RAIN. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE
ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS SLICK THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS JUST
UPSTREAM AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING WITH
MIXED PCPN TYPES BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES ACROSS IL AND IA
AS EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH DID REMOVE THE
INEXPLICABLE ANOMALOUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM GRIDS AND FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING FOR THERMAL PROFILES LIES WITH NAM12 AND
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH THE MORNING. ONLY
REAL ISSUE IS WITH SFC TEMPS AT INITIALIZATION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
ALL HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD WITH FALLING TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEEMINGLY TRYING TO FOLLOW SOME TYPE OF CLIMO BASED
DIURNAL CURVE. SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSETTING EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES. WHILE TEMPS MY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT EXPECTING A 3
TO 5 DEGREE DROP BEFORE RISING AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING.
THUS HAD TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO ACTUAL WARMING.
POWT PROCESS ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WEATHER GRID OUTPUT TODAY USING
RUC13 AND NAM12 AS BASE GRIDS. RESULTS GENERALLY AS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET EARLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY NORTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SLEET. AS MENTIONED...DID REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPS WERE BELOW 32F. TRANSITION ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS PCPN BECOMES FREEZING RAIN ALL AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BREAK IN PCPN MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY BATCH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW IN TRYING TO TIME THIS OUT BUT IS WORTH NOTING AS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK DRY SLOT BUT THIS COULD EASILY FILL IN
THIS MORNING.
SFC TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SO RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AFTER 18Z TO 19Z.
HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT ACTUAL SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY
LAGGING 2M MEASURED AIR TEMPS BY A FEW HOURS DUE TO HOW COLD WE HAVE
BEEN AND FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO AROUND 10 INCHES. THIS IS AN UNKNOWN
FACTOR AND ONE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THUS THIS
COULD KEEP SOME SECONDARY AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS ICY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NO MORE THAN 0.15. SNOW ACCUMS
DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCH STILL POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED 2
INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THESE AMOUNTS CAN STILL VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. STILL WELL
WITHIN GOING ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON QPF TOTALS WITH THIS ENTIRE
EVENT OVER OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR WILL BE TAKEN SOUTH AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO
OUR AREA QUICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH GETS GOING AND STEALS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
END LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY WITH ANY
PCPN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING ICE. HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND WILL DEFER TO DAY
SHIFT TO EVALUATE PCPN TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS OPENED UP SOME...WITH MOST OF THE ICE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BECOME TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MARION TO
LIMA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SNOW STILL APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR TO INVADE THE AREA YET AGAIN. WENT ABOVE THE GFS/MEX 13F AND THE
ECMWF 14F HIGHS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RECENTLY IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES. SO KEPT HIGHS AROUND 16F THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST HIGH AT FT WAYNE FOR THE DATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
PRIOR TAF FORECASTS ON TRACK AND CONTINUED TREND WITH THIS
PACKAGE. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PCPN TIMING BASED ON LATEST
00Z MODELS AND 03Z HIRES MODELS WHICH CONTINUE TO SLOW ONSET OF
PCPN. THIS IN LARGE PART DUE TO VERY DRY WEDGE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WHICH WILL AID IN EVAPORATION OF FALLING PCPN UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVES AROUND 12-15Z. THIS DRY WEDGE ALSO UNDER
DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED WATER. THIS SUGGEST EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THIS WATER TO FREEZE AND FALL AS
SLEET ALONG WITH SNOW AT ONSET. MOVED UP TIMING OF SLEET GIVEN
THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. PCPN BECOMES FZRA FOR A FEW HOURS MID
MORNING WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS DEEPENS TO NEAR SFC AROUND
18-19Z WITH SFC TEMPS JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING FOR JUST RAIN IN
AFTERNOON. CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT SNOW WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FZDZ THIS EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT
BUT FEW MODELS SHOW SOME CLOUD SEEDING SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
MENTION INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN SMALL PROBABILITY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
135 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
COLD FRONT ARRIVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. AS SUCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 3 PM AND THEN START
FALLING. AN UPDATE FOR LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK. COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO. AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.
NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US. THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK. COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO. AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.
NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US. THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK. COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO. AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.
NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US. THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND
15Z...AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END. AS THE FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW END...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ENDING THE FREEZING THREAT...AND HELPING TO IMPROVE
REMAINING ICING CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN THE MILD AIR
WILL BLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS...THEN AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...NORTHWEST AT 18 TO 26 KTS THIS EVENING. IFR TO MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
WHITESIDE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK. COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO. AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.
NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US. THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
WHITESIDE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 24 7 38 / 80 80 10 0
GCK 15 24 6 38 / 60 60 10 0
EHA 16 23 10 39 / 70 70 10 0
LBL 17 24 9 38 / 80 80 10 0
HYS 15 28 6 40 / 50 50 0 0
P28 19 25 9 39 / 80 80 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1042 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS ARE NOT CATCHING THE FULL EXTENT
OF THE FOG. FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED/ADVECTED INTO MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS FASTER AND
FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODEL DEPICTION. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
CAPTURING THIS THE BEST. SO USED A BLEND OF REALITY AND THE LATEST
NAM TO INCREASE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG.
DAY SHIFT HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE FOG BECOMING DENSE BUT WAS
THINKING THE WIND/MIXING WOULD PREVENT THAT. CURRENTLY THE NAM...
HRRR AND RAP ARE INDICATING DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. WHAT COMPLICATES THE EXTENT OF THE FOG AND
HOW LONG IT COULD STAY DENSE IS THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE SPEED
THEY SWITCH THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS THEY BRING IN
DRIER AIR. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS COULD BE RIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW A
LONGER PERIOD OF DENSE FOG. WILL KEEP MONITOR AND WAIT FOR THE
LATEST MODEL DATA TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015
AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. WINDS ARE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH...GUSTING
35 MPH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S WHERE STRATUS PERSISTS
TO THE UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ARE NOTED. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EJECTING AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...MANY FORECAST COMPLICATIONS HAVE LEAD
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE WORKING FOR
PRECIPITATION/FOG WHILE THERE ARE ALSO COMPETING FACTORS THAT COULD
NEGATE ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP/FOG THREAT. FIRST...BEGINNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN FURTHER WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...SLIGHT LIFT APPLIED BY PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25. HOWEVER...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE THAT MOST
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION REMAINS
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IS PRESENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SO NOT SURE IF THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE. MOST LIKELY...PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST BY
SUNRISE. WITH COLD GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
DRIZZLE FREEZES ON CONTACT SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PATCHY
GLAZE. A COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS IS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY ELIMINATE ANY THREAT OF ICE.
AS FOR THE FOG THREAT...SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH FOG ADVECTING EAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
FOG MAY BE DENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
RESTRICTS HOW LOW VISIBILITIES DROP AND WOULD LEAD TO MORE STRATUS
AND LIGHT FOG OBSERVATIONS THAN DENSE FOG. HAVE NOT MENTIONED DENSE
FOG BUT DID MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WHERE OCCURRENCE IS MOST
LIKELY. FOG DIMINISHES IN DENSITY/COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL THAT
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THIS SHOULD BE ONE OF THOSE
CASES WHERE IT OCCURS.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 MBS IN 6 HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MEAGER UNTIL BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES.
THE THROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY SWEEPS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 1-2
INCHES AT MOST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH FURTHER EAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...10-15 MPH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR EITHER THE SNOW OR THE
COLD WIND CHILLS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY END UP MENTIONING THEM
IN THE HWO TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES COME UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
PLACING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN MODELS BY TUESDAY...BUT THE END RESULT IS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION REMAINS WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015
MODELS ARE NOW REVERSING COURSE ON NOT ONLY FOG BUT STRATUS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VFR AT KGLD. PER SATELLITE AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR THAT MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL. SO UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT NEAR 14Z...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS BEFORE BECOME VFR AGAIN. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING NEAR
KGLD. SO AT THIS TIME JUST PUT VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR 12Z WHEN THEY
BRIEFLY BECOME VFR RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. JUST LIKE
KGLD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH. AROUND 19Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT TIME...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS LIGHT SNOW...DEPICTED BY VCSH...MOVES INTO THE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
KY...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. STILL HAVE MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS...INCLUDING THUNDER...FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MAY END
UP TRENDING BACK ON THIS A BIT GIVEN THE ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR ANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
AT ANY TIME...SO MAY END UP KEEPING WITH THE ONGOING CHANCES TO BE
SAFE. UPDATED THE FORECAST /ZFP AND SAF/ TO TAKE OUT ANY MORNING
WORDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL KY AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT THINGS TO
EVENTUALLY START SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE NOT SHOWING THIS TRANSITION UNTIL THIS EVENING /CLOSER
TO 3Z/...A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED/ANTICIPATED. AS
SUCH...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GOOD INITIATION OF THESE
HI RES MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD BE MAKING IT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA...SO KEPT WITH A
LIKELY/DEFINITE POP FROM THIS POINT ON. ALSO...LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO
MAKE SURE THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOR THESE PARAMETERS WAS WELL ON
TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS. HAD SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH RESPECT TO LIGHT FREEZING DZ...RA. TEMPS ARE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING NOW. WILL LET CURRENT SPS FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRE AT 9 AM. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE
ZONES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL INTO A LAYER OF
SUBFREEZING AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ISSUE WITH THIS WILL BE WHETHER OR
NOT THE PRECIP IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF SOME FREEZING PRECIP DOES
DEVELOP...AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO DEAL WITH
IT. THE SECOND CONCERN IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TODAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE POP AND QPF FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS MODIFIED AS A RESULT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE. IT STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION
AND WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
DUE TO RECENTLY MELTED SNOW...THE GROUND IS ALREADY COMPLETELY
SATURATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN
TO BEGIN CAUSING PROBLEMS. BASED ON CURRENT HYDRO FORECASTS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THERE WILL ALSO BE POINTS ALONG THE
KENTUCKY BASIN THAT MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...SUCH AS AT
RAVENNA. THE TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MAY
EVEN APPROACH 60 IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY.
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS WHERE OUR SECOND AND PERHAPS
MORE SERIOUS FORECAST CONCERN LIES. ONCE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA BEHIND IT...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
WITH A STRONG FEED OF GULF MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO OVERRIDE
THE SLUGGISH COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I634 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. AS MORE AND MORE COLD AIR MOVES IN...THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM A MESSY WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
AROUND 0Z THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WILL BE AT THE START OF THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM12
BY FAR HAS THE MOST WELL DEFINED LAYER OF WARM AIR AMONGST THE
MODELS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SLEET IN OUR NORTHER AND LESS
SNOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE BOTH
SHOWING A MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED WARM NOSE ALOFT AND THEREFORE
MORE SNOW. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS...GOING WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO START THE EVENT
AND LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE WWD FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
HIGH PRESSURE (AND QUIET WEATHER) WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...
WITH A FEW SPOTS IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES...
WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE
COLD SNAP APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START
MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY...GENERALLY
PUSHING JUST NORTH OF EASTERN KY...MISSING MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
AS SUCH...TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THOUGH SOME VCSH OR VCTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AFTER 0Z...EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS KY. WITH INSTABILITY STILL IN
PLACE /DUE TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER NORTHERLY AIR INTERACTING
WITH MOIST SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO/...COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. BY
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOSE OUR INSTABILITY...BUT RAIN WILL REALLY
TAKE HOLD. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING TAF SITES GOING BELOW AIRPORT
MINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERIODS
OF VIS AND CIGS LIFR AND BELOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ068-
069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ087-088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
138 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
KY...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. STILL HAVE MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS...INCLUDING THUNDER...FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MAY END
UP TRENDING BACK ON THIS A BIT GIVEN THE ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR ANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
AT ANY TIME...SO MAY END UP KEEPING WITH THE ONGOING CHANCES TO BE
SAFE. UPDATED THE FORECAST /ZFP AND SAF/ TO TAKE OUT ANY MORNING
WORDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL KY AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT THINGS TO
EVENTUALLY START SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE NOT SHOWING THIS TRANSITION UNTIL THIS EVENING /CLOSER
TO 3Z/...A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED/ANTICIPATED. AS
SUCH...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GOOD INITIATION OF THESE
HI RES MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD BE MAKING IT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA...SO KEPT WITH A
LIKELY/DEFINITE POP FROM THIS POINT ON. ALSO...LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO
MAKE SURE THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOR THESE PARAMETERS WAS WELL ON
TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS. HAD SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH RESPECT TO LIGHT FREEZING DZ...RA. TEMPS ARE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING NOW. WILL LET CURRENT SPS FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRE AT 9 AM. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE
ZONES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL INTO A LAYER OF
SUBFREEZING AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ISSUE WITH THIS WILL BE WHETHER OR
NOT THE PRECIP IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF SOME FREEZING PRECIP DOES
DEVELOP...AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO DEAL WITH
IT. THE SECOND CONCERN IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TODAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE POP AND QPF FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS MODIFIED AS A RESULT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE. IT STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION
AND WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
DUE TO RECENTLY MELTED SNOW...THE GROUND IS ALREADY COMPLETELY
SATURATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN
TO BEGIN CAUSING PROBLEMS. BASED ON CURRENT HYDRO FORECASTS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THERE WILL ALSO BE POINTS ALONG THE
KENTUCKY BASIN THAT MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...SUCH AS AT
RAVENNA. THE TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MAY
EVEN APPROACH 60 IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY.
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS WHERE OUR SECOND AND PERHAPS
MORE SERIOUS FORECAST CONCERN LIES. ONCE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA BEHIND IT...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
WITH A STRONG FEED OF GULF MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO OVERRIDE
THE SLUGGISH COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I634 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. AS MORE AND MORE COLD AIR MOVES IN...THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM A MESSY WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
AROUND 0Z THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WILL BE AT THE START OF THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM12
BY FAR HAS THE MOST WELL DEFINED LAYER OF WARM AIR AMONGST THE
MODELS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SLEET IN OUR NORTHER AND LESS
SNOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE BOTH
SHOWING A MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED WARM NOSE ALOFT AND THEREFORE
MORE SNOW. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS...GOING WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO START THE EVENT
AND LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE WWD FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL BE DIVING HEADLONG INTO
A TRANSITION FROM A HEAVY RAIN INTO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. GFS...ECMWF SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE NAM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WITH
THE NAM OUTSIDE ITS WINDOW OF BEST PERFORMANCE...GENERAL PREFERRED
TO REMAINED CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
TO WARRANT STAYING WITH THE CURRENT SUITE OF WATCH PRODUCTS
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED.
A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEATHER ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN
OF ACTIVE AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY REGION. COLDER ARCTIC AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS ZONE WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE CHANGOVER...GENERALLY SLEET IN THE
NORTH BUT SLEET OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
OVERALL MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
ONSLAUGHT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES...WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE COLD SNAP APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. BUT WEATHER WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH TIME. FOR NOW MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT POP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY...GENERALLY
PUSHING JUST NORTH OF EASTERN KY...MISSING MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
AS SUCH...TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THOUGH SOME VCSH OR VCTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AFTER 0Z...EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS KY. WITH INSTABILITY STILL IN
PLACE /DUE TO A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER NORTHERLY AIR INTERACTING
WITH MOIST SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO/...COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. BY
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL LOSE OUR INSTABILITY...BUT RAIN WILL REALLY
TAKE HOLD. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING TAF SITES GOING BELOW AIRPORT
MINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERIODS
OF VIS AND CIGS LIFR AND BELOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1027 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL KY AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT THINGS TO
EVENTUALLY START SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE NOT SHOWING THIS TRANSITION UNTIL THIS EVENING /CLOSER
TO 3Z/...A LITTLE LATER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED/ANTICIPATED. AS
SUCH...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GOOD INITIATION OF THESE
HI RES MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD BE MAKING IT INTO MUCH OF THE CWA...SO KEPT WITH A
LIKELY/DEFINITE POP FROM THIS POINT ON. ALSO...LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO
MAKE SURE THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOR THESE PARAMETERS WAS WELL ON
TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS AND RADAR
TRENDS. HAD SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
WITH RESPECT TO LIGHT FREEZING DZ...RA. TEMPS ARE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING NOW. WILL LET CURRENT SPS FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRE AT 9 AM. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE
ZONES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL INTO A LAYER OF
SUBFREEZING AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ISSUE WITH THIS WILL BE WHETHER OR
NOT THE PRECIP IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF SOME FREEZING PRECIP DOES
DEVELOP...AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO DEAL WITH
IT. THE SECOND CONCERN IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TODAY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE POP AND QPF FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS MODIFIED AS A RESULT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE. IT STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION
AND WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
DUE TO RECENTLY MELTED SNOW...THE GROUND IS ALREADY COMPLETELY
SATURATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN
TO BEGIN CAUSING PROBLEMS. BASED ON CURRENT HYDRO FORECASTS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THERE WILL ALSO BE POINTS ALONG THE
KENTUCKY BASIN THAT MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...SUCH AS AT
RAVENNA. THE TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MAY
EVEN APPROACH 60 IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY.
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS WHERE OUR SECOND AND PERHAPS
MORE SERIOUS FORECAST CONCERN LIES. ONCE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA BEHIND IT...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
WITH A STRONG FEED OF GULF MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO OVERRIDE
THE SLUGGISH COLD FRONT...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I634 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. AS MORE AND MORE COLD AIR MOVES IN...THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM A MESSY WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
AROUND 0Z THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WILL BE AT THE START OF THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM12
BY FAR HAS THE MOST WELL DEFINED LAYER OF WARM AIR AMONGST THE
MODELS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SLEET IN OUR NORTHER AND LESS
SNOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE BOTH
SHOWING A MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED WARM NOSE ALOFT AND THEREFORE
MORE SNOW. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS...GOING WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET TO START THE EVENT
AND LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE WWD FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL BE DIVING HEADLONG INTO
A TRANSITION FROM A HEAVY RAIN INTO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. GFS...ECMWF SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE NAM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WITH
THE NAM OUTSIDE ITS WINDOW OF BEST PERFORMANCE...GENERAL PREFERRED
TO REMAINED CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
TO WARRANT STAYING WITH THE CURRENT SUITE OF WATCH PRODUCTS
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED.
A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEATHER ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN
OF ACTIVE AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY REGION. COLDER ARCTIC AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS ZONE WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE CHANGOVER...GENERALLY SLEET IN THE
NORTH BUT SLEET OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
OVERALL MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE
ONSLAUGHT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES...WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE COLD SNAP APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. BUT WEATHER WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH TIME. FOR NOW MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT POP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT FEEL THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 10Z.
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CIGS AT 10 OR 11Z AT JKL...LOZ...AND SME
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3K AS MULTIPLE LAYERS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN. CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES BY 14
TO 16Z THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 9Z THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT SJS AND SYM BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS PRECIP OVERRIDES A LAYER OF
NEAR FREEZING AIR NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN DURING THE
TRANSITION...WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTERACTS
WITH WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
742 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
730 PM UPDATE: SECOND ARCTIC FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ACROSS QUEBEC ATTM AND MOVING
S. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SE AND BREAK UP.
INCREASED THE POPS TO 40% ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE(THE CROWN) AND
ADDED UP TO 0.5" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL W/THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS.
COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FA OVRNGT IN TWO SUCCESSIVE
WVS...THE FIRST MID TO LATE EVE...AND A SECOND ARND DAYBREAK. THE
FIRST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS WITH A
COUPLE OF ST LAWRENCE STREAMERS BEING IMPLIED FOR NRN ME BY THE
LATEST HRRR HRLY SIM RADAR FCST GOING INTO THE OVRNGT. ANY
ORGANIZATION OF SN SHWR STREAMERS SHOULD WEAKEN LATE TNGT AS LLVL
LAPSE RATES DECREASE. JUST S OF THE FA...PRECIP WITH A SECOND WV
OF LOW PRES MOVG ENE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD REMAIN JUST
S OF DOWNEAST COAST LATER TNGT INTO THU MORNING...WITH NRN EDGE OF
THE HI CLD SHIELD REACHING NWRD INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST ME.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MSLY SUNNY...OR BECOMING MSLY SUNNY
THU AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER FAIRLY
BRISK CONDITIONS...HI TEMPS THU WILL MAKE LMTD RECOVERY FROM LOWS
TNGT...AND WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY`S HIGHS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER CLR SKIES THU EVE AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
XTNDS WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL FOR MSLY
BROAD VLY AREAS LATE THU NGT WHILE HIER TRRN HOLDS ON ON TO A LGT
BREEZE. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE QUITE COLD...POTENTIALLY INTO THE
-20S DEG F OVR THE COLDEST NW VLY AREAS WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH THE LOWER 20S
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SOME NORTHERN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL LEVELS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN RISE TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR THRU THU NGT...WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CLGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD SN SHWRS OVR NRN MOST TAF SITES
LATE THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MVFR IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST INTO
THU AFTN...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051. OTHERWISE...WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING BACK OVR THE WATERS...A PD OF MDT FZG SPY IS POSSIBLE THU
NGT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS...WITH WV HTS THIS EVE RUNNING ABOUT
A FOOT OR TWO ABV GUIDANCE...THEN TO GUIDANCE BY MID THU MORN.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
931 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AS THE NAM12 AND RAP KEEP THE THICKEST CLOUD SHIELD
FURTHER S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD. ALSO
NEEDED TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW AND LOWERED THE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST CONDITIONS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THEN MOVE
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. OVER-RUNNING SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW
COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN COASTAL AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL
USE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON 50/50 BLEND OF
THE NAM AND GFS. WILL ALSO USE SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THICKNESS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR QPF... POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL BLEND
THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE USED THE GMOS FOR WINDS. HAVE
MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS. WILL ISSUE
ADVISORY FOR SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARM AND WINDY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE 40S DOWNEAST. WEST
WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AS COOLER
AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FORM THE WEST AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
TO MIX DOWN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER LOW MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL, NO MAJOR STORMS ARE IN SIGHT
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND
WEAK, FAST MOVING LOWS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HIGHS DOMINATE THE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY. VERY GUSTY
WINDS MAY RESULT IN TURBULANCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY IN LOWER CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE 0545 EST: HAVE LOWERED GALE TO SCA.
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM EARLY TODAY WILL BE OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WITH
HEIGHTS A FUNCTION OF FETCH DISTANCE FROM SHORE. WIND WAVE WILL
SUBSIDE WITH WINDS LATER TODAY. A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH WIND WAVE BUILDING TO 6 TO
10 FEET/8 SECONDS BY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA OR A GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY. WINDS MAY DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE
LIGHTER SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ002>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0010 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO EXTEND SNOW SHOWERS A
FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO UPDATED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS THIS EVENING AND THEN MUCH COLDER. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON PER THE RADAR. ANOTHER ROUND
SETTING UP AND WILL DIVE SE W/THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM AND RAP MODEL DOING WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW MATCHING UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS. LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING ATTM ESPECIALLY FROM 850-700MBS(7.0 C/KM).
THIS COMBINED W/DECENT SHEAR AT 0-3KM OF 35 KTS AND FORECAST CAPE
80+ JOULES WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME MORE SQUALLS GOING. 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTED THE MODEL SOUNDINGS W/DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH 700MBS. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE FROM THE ST.
JOHN VALLEY DOWN THROUGH CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE DOWN INTO HOULTON.
ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IS FORECAST TO DROP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE INCLUDING THE MILLINOCKET-PATTEN
AREA ALONG ROUTE 11 AND PORTIONS OF I-95. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW BURSTS
W/WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BRIEF WHITEOUTS AND VSBY 1/4
OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
EVENING AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE COAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AT 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD W/GUSTS AT LEAST 30 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED
W/THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE WIND CHILLS
STAY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20F.
FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS IS EXPLAINED MORE IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW
PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THINK THAT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
AREAS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT, PERHAPS ENDING AS JUST A BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST. LOOKING FOR ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE LOOKING FOR
A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE, AND EVEN IN THE LOW 40S DOWNEAST. THE WARMTH IS
SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR STORMS, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW WEAK ONES BEYOND FRIDAY AFTER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. TOO MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT TO TIME THE
WEAK SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO TUE.
BRIEF IFR IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
TONIGHT AS A NW SFC WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR WORSE AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW.
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALES ARE OCCURRING NOW AS THE COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO SCA LEVELS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCA LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT WILL
SUBSIDE TUE. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST
AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 9 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER WHICH IS THE 3 MONTH PERIOD
OF DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 16.8
DEGREES AT BANGOR. IT WAS THE COLDEST SINCE THE WINTER OF
2002-03.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1221 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACRS NAMERICA WITH ARCTIC AND POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH RDG
OVER THE GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LOCAL 00Z ROABS SHOW A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWATS UNDER 0.10 INCH AT INL/GRB/APX...ON AVERAGE 33
PCT OF NORMAL...AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 40-45C. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS THAT WL HAVE A SGNFT IMPACT ON UPR MI WX...ONE IN EACH
STREAM. THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH SHRTWV IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE
WRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MRNG AND SUPPORTING A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC
LEAF CLD...WITH SOME VERY COLD CLD TOPS OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA JUST
TO THE N OF H85 WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN FAR NW
KANSAS AND WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF
SUPPORTING 140KT H3 JET MAX. IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH...THERE IS A
STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
APRCHG 150M IN THE VIGOROUS DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SFC COLD FNT
HANGING S OF THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
EXTENDS S INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND IS APRCHG NW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...
A BAND OF COLDER CLD TOPS IS NOTED NEAR THE WI BORDER ALONG AXIS OF
FGEN SHOWN BEST BTWN ABOUT H7-5. HOWEVER...DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS HAS SO FAR LIMITED THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS FCST PERIOD WL BE ON POPS/SN TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THESE
DISTURBANCES WL REMAIN OUT OF PHASE...OVERALL SN TOTALS EXPECTED
TODAY OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE EXCESSIVE BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC BRANCH FROPA SURGES INTO THE AREA TNGT AND
BRINGS A RETURN OF SOME LES.
TODAY...SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN FAST WSW FLOW BTWN THE TWO BRANCHES AS
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PUSHES INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO ACCOMPANY SFC LO REACHING THE WRN CWA LATE IN THE DAY.
ARRIVAL OF SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX AS WELL AS DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
THE SSW FLOW ALF IN ADVANCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WL CAUSE BAND OF
PATCHY SN NEAR THE WI BORDER EARLY RELATED TO MID LVL FGEN TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE DURING THE MRNG HRS. SINCE THE SHARPEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS WELL AS FGEN THAT IS MAXIMIZED IN THE H7-6 LYR IS FCST TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OFF
LK MI LIMITED SOMEHWAT BY ICE COVERAGE IS PSBL IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE...
EXPECT THE GREATER SN TOTALS IN THIS AREA. WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN
THE H7-75 LYR UP TO 3G/KG...3-6 INCHES OF SN SEEMS A GOOD BET FOR 6-
9 HR PERIOD OF STEADY PCPN EXPECTED BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/VIGOROUS
QVECTOR DVGC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURANCE WL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER SN W-E AND OVER THE FAR E
BY 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FGEN/MSTR
TRANSPORT WL TEND TO MISS THE WRN CWA...EXPECTED HIER SN/WATER
RATIOS IN THAT AREA DUE TO A DEEPER FCST DGZ MAY HELP RAISE SN
TOTALS AT LEAST TO THE 3 INCH THRESHOLD IN THAT AREA. WL MAINTAIN
GOING ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS IS EVEN THOUGH THE HEADLINE MAY BE
DROPPED A FEW HRS EARLY OVER THE W.
TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCES. BUT ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF ARCTIC BRANCH COLD FROPA THAT IS FCST TO DROP H85 TEMPS
TO AS LO AS -26C OVER THE W BY 12Z WED WL RESULT IN LES...MAINLY IN
AERAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF HOLES IN THE ICE COVER OBSVED JUST E OF
THE MN ARROWHEAD...THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
IN THE FCST WNW H925 FLOW. BUT STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...
AS WELL AS DISAPPEARING DGZ OVER THE W RELATED TO THE CHILL OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...WL HOLD DOWN SN TOTALS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
NMRS SN SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE E OF MUNISING IN ALGER COUNTY THAT WL
BE DOWNWIND OF THE AREA OF OPEN WATER E OF THE KEWEENAW AND WHERE
THE ONSHORE 290 FLOW WL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THAT AREA OF OPEN WATER.
GUSTY WINDS RELATED TO FCST H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS/STRONG CAA AND
DESTABILIZATION WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK
SUP SHORE. GUSTS IN THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS E OF MUNISING MAY
APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. OVER THE SCENTRAL...EXPECT SOME CLEARING...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING BLO ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE WI BORDER WHERE LK MODERATION WL BE MINIMAL OR ABSENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA ON WED/WED
EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -27C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
BEHIND THE TROUGH WED EVENING. MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-40MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING DUE TO THE MORE WNW WIND
DIRECTIONS...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OF COURSE...LES WILL RESULT EVEN WITH A MOSTLY ICE COVERED
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. LES
WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W
WHILE WINDS BACK. GENERALLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES IN WNW WIND SNOWBELTS ON
WED...WITH AROUND ANOTHER INCH WED NIGHT INTO THU.
FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT MON...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER WILL BE PRETTY WEAK. PRECIPITATION
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LES IS POSSIBLE
IN W-NW WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DO LOOK TO
MODERATE...AND SHOULD REACH NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING EVEN
FARTHER AHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE W COAST RIDGE SHIFTING E
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND START MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING WL RESULT IN STEADY SN AND CAUSE
PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS INTO MID AFTN. AS THIS FORCING EXITS W-E THIS
AFTN... CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR. A STRONG COLD FNT WL THEN
PASS LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE W AND DURING THE EVNG AT SAW. GUSTY WNW
WINDS WL DVLP IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE
EXPOSED IWD AND ESPECIALLY THE CMX LOCATIONS. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT THESE
LOCATIONS WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW WL
CAUSE VFR CONDITIONS THERE TNGT FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
S WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
AFTER WED...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK
THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE
SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
643 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACRS NAMERICA WITH ARCTIC AND POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH RDG
OVER THE GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LOCAL 00Z ROABS SHOW A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWATS UNDER 0.10 INCH AT INL/GRB/APX...ON AVERAGE 33
PCT OF NORMAL...AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 40-45C. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS THAT WL HAVE A SGNFT IMPACT ON UPR MI WX...ONE IN EACH
STREAM. THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH SHRTWV IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE
WRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MRNG AND SUPPORTING A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC
LEAF CLD...WITH SOME VERY COLD CLD TOPS OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA JUST
TO THE N OF H85 WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN FAR NW
KANSAS AND WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF
SUPPORTING 140KT H3 JET MAX. IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH...THERE IS A
STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
APRCHG 150M IN THE VIGOROUS DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SFC COLD FNT
HANGING S OF THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
EXTENDS S INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND IS APRCHG NW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...
A BAND OF COLDER CLD TOPS IS NOTED NEAR THE WI BORDER ALONG AXIS OF
FGEN SHOWN BEST BTWN ABOUT H7-5. HOWEVER...DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS HAS SO FAR LIMITED THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS FCST PERIOD WL BE ON POPS/SN TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THESE
DISTURBANCES WL REMAIN OUT OF PHASE...OVERALL SN TOTALS EXPECTED
TODAY OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE EXCESSIVE BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC BRANCH FROPA SURGES INTO THE AREA TNGT AND
BRINGS A RETURN OF SOME LES.
TODAY...SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN FAST WSW FLOW BTWN THE TWO BRANCHES AS
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PUSHES INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO ACCOMPANY SFC LO REACHING THE WRN CWA LATE IN THE DAY.
ARRIVAL OF SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX AS WELL AS DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
THE SSW FLOW ALF IN ADVANCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WL CAUSE BAND OF
PATCHY SN NEAR THE WI BORDER EARLY RELATED TO MID LVL FGEN TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE DURING THE MRNG HRS. SINCE THE SHARPEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS WELL AS FGEN THAT IS MAXIMIZED IN THE H7-6 LYR IS FCST TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OFF
LK MI LIMITED SOMEHWAT BY ICE COVERAGE IS PSBL IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE...
EXPECT THE GREATER SN TOTALS IN THIS AREA. WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN
THE H7-75 LYR UP TO 3G/KG...3-6 INCHES OF SN SEEMS A GOOD BET FOR 6-
9 HR PERIOD OF STEADY PCPN EXPECTED BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/VIGOROUS
QVECTOR DVGC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURANCE WL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER SN W-E AND OVER THE FAR E
BY 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FGEN/MSTR
TRANSPORT WL TEND TO MISS THE WRN CWA...EXPECTED HIER SN/WATER
RATIOS IN THAT AREA DUE TO A DEEPER FCST DGZ MAY HELP RAISE SN
TOTALS AT LEAST TO THE 3 INCH THRESHOLD IN THAT AREA. WL MAINTAIN
GOING ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS IS EVEN THOUGH THE HEADLINE MAY BE
DROPPED A FEW HRS EARLY OVER THE W.
TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCES. BUT ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF ARCTIC BRANCH COLD FROPA THAT IS FCST TO DROP H85 TEMPS
TO AS LO AS -26C OVER THE W BY 12Z WED WL RESULT IN LES...MAINLY IN
AERAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF HOLES IN THE ICE COVER OBSVED JUST E OF
THE MN ARROWHEAD...THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
IN THE FCST WNW H925 FLOW. BUT STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...
AS WELL AS DISAPPEARING DGZ OVER THE W RELATED TO THE CHILL OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...WL HOLD DOWN SN TOTALS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
NMRS SN SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE E OF MUNISING IN ALGER COUNTY THAT WL
BE DOWNWIND OF THE AREA OF OPEN WATER E OF THE KEWEENAW AND WHERE
THE ONSHORE 290 FLOW WL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THAT AREA OF OPEN WATER.
GUSTY WINDS RELATED TO FCST H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS/STRONG CAA AND
DESTABILIZATION WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK
SUP SHORE. GUSTS IN THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS E OF MUNISING MAY
APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. OVER THE SCENTRAL...EXPECT SOME CLEARING...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING BLO ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE WI BORDER WHERE LK MODERATION WL BE MINIMAL OR ABSENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA ON WED/WED
EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -27C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
BEHIND THE TROUGH WED EVENING. MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-40MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING DUE TO THE MORE WNW WIND
DIRECTIONS...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OF COURSE...LES WILL RESULT EVEN WITH A MOSTLY ICE COVERED
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. LES
WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W
WHILE WINDS BACK. GENERALLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES IN WNW WIND SNOWBELTS ON
WED...WITH AROUND ANOTHER INCH WED NIGHT INTO THU.
FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT MON...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER WILL BE PRETTY WEAK. PRECIPITATION
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LES IS POSSIBLE
IN W-NW WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DO LOOK TO
MODERATE...AND SHOULD REACH NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING EVEN
FARTHER AHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE W COAST RIDGE SHIFTING E
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND START MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A BAND OF SOME -SN FALLING INTO LLVL DRY AIR MAY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO MID MRNG...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADVANCE OF A LO PRES MOVING NE FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WL RESULT IN STEADY SN BY MID MRNG AND CAUSE PREDOMINANT IFR
VSBYS INTO MID AFTN. AS THIS FORCING EXITS W-E THIS AFTN...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR. A STRONG COLD FNT WL THEN PASS LATE
THIS AFTN OVER THE W AND DURING THE EVNG AT SAW. GUSTY WNW WINDS WL
DVLP IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD
AND ESPECIALLY THE CMX LOCATIONS. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK
SUP...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREDOMINANT AT THESE LOCATIONS
WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW WL CAUSE VFR
CONDITIONS THERE TNGT FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
S WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
AFTER WED...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK
THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE
SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACRS NAMERICA WITH ARCTIC AND POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH RDG
OVER THE GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. LOCAL 00Z ROABS SHOW A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWATS UNDER 0.10 INCH AT INL/GRB/APX...ON AVERAGE 33
PCT OF NORMAL...AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 40-45C. THERE ARE TWO
SHRTWVS THAT WL HAVE A SGNFT IMPACT ON UPR MI WX...ONE IN EACH
STREAM. THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH SHRTWV IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE
WRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MRNG AND SUPPORTING A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC
LEAF CLD...WITH SOME VERY COLD CLD TOPS OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA JUST
TO THE N OF H85 WARM FNT ATTENDANT TO DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN FAR NW
KANSAS AND WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF
SUPPORTING 140KT H3 JET MAX. IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH...THERE IS A
STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO MANITOBA...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
APRCHG 150M IN THE VIGOROUS DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SFC COLD FNT
HANGING S OF THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
EXTENDS S INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND IS APRCHG NW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...
A BAND OF COLDER CLD TOPS IS NOTED NEAR THE WI BORDER ALONG AXIS OF
FGEN SHOWN BEST BTWN ABOUT H7-5. HOWEVER...DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS HAS SO FAR LIMITED THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS FCST PERIOD WL BE ON POPS/SN TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THESE
DISTURBANCES WL REMAIN OUT OF PHASE...OVERALL SN TOTALS EXPECTED
TODAY OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE EXCESSIVE BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC BRANCH FROPA SURGES INTO THE AREA TNGT AND
BRINGS A RETURN OF SOME LES.
TODAY...SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN FAST WSW FLOW BTWN THE TWO BRANCHES AS
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PUSHES INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO ACCOMPANY SFC LO REACHING THE WRN CWA LATE IN THE DAY.
ARRIVAL OF SOME VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX AS WELL AS DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
THE SSW FLOW ALF IN ADVANCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WL CAUSE BAND OF
PATCHY SN NEAR THE WI BORDER EARLY RELATED TO MID LVL FGEN TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE DURING THE MRNG HRS. SINCE THE SHARPEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS WELL AS FGEN THAT IS MAXIMIZED IN THE H7-6 LYR IS FCST TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OFF
LK MI LIMITED SOMEHWAT BY ICE COVERAGE IS PSBL IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE...
EXPECT THE GREATER SN TOTALS IN THIS AREA. WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN
THE H7-75 LYR UP TO 3G/KG...3-6 INCHES OF SN SEEMS A GOOD BET FOR 6-
9 HR PERIOD OF STEADY PCPN EXPECTED BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/VIGOROUS
QVECTOR DVGC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURANCE WL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER SN W-E AND OVER THE FAR E
BY 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FGEN/MSTR
TRANSPORT WL TEND TO MISS THE WRN CWA...EXPECTED HIER SN/WATER
RATIOS IN THAT AREA DUE TO A DEEPER FCST DGZ MAY HELP RAISE SN
TOTALS AT LEAST TO THE 3 INCH THRESHOLD IN THAT AREA. WL MAINTAIN
GOING ADVY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS IS EVEN THOUGH THE HEADLINE MAY BE
DROPPED A FEW HRS EARLY OVER THE W.
TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCES. BUT ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF ARCTIC BRANCH COLD FROPA THAT IS FCST TO DROP H85 TEMPS
TO AS LO AS -26C OVER THE W BY 12Z WED WL RESULT IN LES...MAINLY IN
AERAS THAT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF HOLES IN THE ICE COVER OBSVED JUST E OF
THE MN ARROWHEAD...THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
IN THE FCST WNW H925 FLOW. BUT STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...
AS WELL AS DISAPPEARING DGZ OVER THE W RELATED TO THE CHILL OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...WL HOLD DOWN SN TOTALS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
NMRS SN SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE E OF MUNISING IN ALGER COUNTY THAT WL
BE DOWNWIND OF THE AREA OF OPEN WATER E OF THE KEWEENAW AND WHERE
THE ONSHORE 290 FLOW WL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THAT AREA OF OPEN WATER.
GUSTY WINDS RELATED TO FCST H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS/STRONG CAA AND
DESTABILIZATION WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK
SUP SHORE. GUSTS IN THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS E OF MUNISING MAY
APRCH ADVY CRITERIA. OVER THE SCENTRAL...EXPECT SOME CLEARING...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING BLO ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE WI BORDER WHERE LK MODERATION WL BE MINIMAL OR ABSENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA ON WED/WED
EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -27C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
BEHIND THE TROUGH WED EVENING. MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-40MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING DUE TO THE MORE WNW WIND
DIRECTIONS...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OF COURSE...LES WILL RESULT EVEN WITH A MOSTLY ICE COVERED
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. LES
WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W
WHILE WINDS BACK. GENERALLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES IN WNW WIND SNOWBELTS ON
WED...WITH AROUND ANOTHER INCH WED NIGHT INTO THU.
FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT MON...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER WILL BE PRETTY WEAK. PRECIPITATION
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LES IS POSSIBLE
IN W-NW WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DO LOOK TO
MODERATE...AND SHOULD REACH NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING EVEN
FARTHER AHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE W COAST RIDGE SHIFTING E
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND START MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD
(AROUND 10Z) AND AT KCMX/KSAW AROUND 12Z AS INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SW
FLOW WILL LEAD TO SNOW DEVELOPMENT. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING (BTWN 20-22Z) WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING W WINDS IN WAKE OF LOW PRES TROF/COLD
FROPA. W WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT KCMX COULD LEAD TO SOME
BLSN AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TUE EVENING. EXPECT KSAW TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUE EVENING IN DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
S WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
AFTER WED...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK
THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVERAGE
SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
356 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA.
FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST ARE A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE SRN STREAM TROF
OVER CA/NV...IN PARTICULAR THE SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CA/SRN NV WHERE
CONVECTION IS NOTED. THESE TWO WAVES WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOW TO THE AREA TUE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SUNSHINE WORKING ON THE FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. COOLEST
CONDITIONS (AROUND 20F) ARE OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
850MB THERMAL TROF...AND AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE/ICE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
REMAINING UNPHASED AS THEY AFFECT THE AREA TUE. THE SRN WAVE WILL
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE SW INTO THE DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW...AND IT
WILL BE THE DRIVER OF THE SNOW THAT SPREADS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IT
APPEARS 1 MAIN STREAK OF PCPN OR AT LEAST MORE ORGANIZED/HEAVIER
PCPN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE SW. THIS PCPN WILL STREAK NE ACROSS
SD INTO CNTRL MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE/ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT EXIT OF 150KT JET
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 125KT
JET STREAK OVER ND INTO NRN ONTARIO. MORE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO GET
ORGANIZED FARTHER E LATE IN THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
BROADER WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGIN TO SATURATE DRIER AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN TIMING THE PCPN INTO
WRN AND SRN UPPER MI IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME...AND STARTING ACROSS
THE N AND E AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SO...LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WILL
BE REQUIRED WITH ONSET TIMING. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 12Z.
ON TUE...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS NE ACROSS NE MN/WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN WILL QUICKLY EXPAND/INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS AIR MASS SATURATES AND DEEP LAYER FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. ON THE 285K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB)...MIXING
RATIOS AROUND 2.5G/KG ARE AVBL...SUGGESTING SOMETHING AROUND 3
INCHES OF SNOW FOR 6-9HRS OF ASCENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OTHER
FACTORS AT PLAY...A WIDESPREAD FAIRLY UNIFORM 3-5 INCH SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TUE...WHICH FALLS NICELY INLINE
WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF NUMBERS FROM THE MODELS CONVERTED TO SNOW
USING A 15 TO 1 OR SO SNOW RATIO. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR SEVERAL HRS AND AIR MASS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BOOST TO SNOW TOTALS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH ICE COVER WILL LIMIT THE
ENHANCEMENT OVER WHAT IT COULD BE. THAT AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO 5 INCHES THAN 3...AND NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS E TUE AFTN...RESULTING IN SNOW RAPIDLY DIMINISHING W TO E
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN HRS. IN FACT...IT MAY END COMPLETELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTN. WITH SNOW RATIO LIKELY
UNDER 20 TO 1...THIS SYSTEM WILL ACHIEVE THE WETTER SNOW TYPE ADVY
CRITERIA OF AN AVG SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 3IN/12HR OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. SO...ADVY WILL BE HOISTED ACROSS THE BOARD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
A SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA ON WED/WED
EVENING WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -27C. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
BEHIND THE TROUGH WED EVENING. MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-40MPH ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING DUE TO THE MORE WNW WIND
DIRECTIONS...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OF COURSE...LES WILL RESULT EVEN WITH A MOSTLY ICE COVERED
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. LES
WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W
WHILE WINDS BACK. GENERALLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES IN WNW WIND SNOWBELTS ON
WED...WITH AROUND ANOTHER INCH WED NIGHT INTO THU.
FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT MON...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER WILL BE PRETTY WEAK. PRECIPITATION
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LES IS POSSIBLE
IN W-NW WINDS SO WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DO LOOK TO
MODERATE...AND SHOULD REACH NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING EVEN
FARTHER AHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE W COAST RIDGE SHIFTING E
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND START MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD
(AROUND 10Z) AND AT KCMX/KSAW AROUND 12Z AS INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SW
FLOW WILL LEAD TO SNOW DEVELOPMENT. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING (BTWN 20-22Z) WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING W WINDS IN WAKE OF LOW PRES TROF/COLD
FROPA. W WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT KCMX COULD LEAD TO SOME
BLSN AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TUE EVENING. EXPECT KSAW TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUE EVENING IN DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME S
AND RAMP UP TONIGHT AND TUE TO 15-25KT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
LO PRES TROF. ONCE THE TROF PASSES TO THE E TUE NIGHT...TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
NW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER
WED...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND
94 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1156 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA.
FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST ARE A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE SRN STREAM TROF
OVER CA/NV...IN PARTICULAR THE SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CA/SRN NV WHERE
CONVECTION IS NOTED. THESE TWO WAVES WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOW TO THE AREA TUE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SUNSHINE WORKING ON THE FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. COOLEST
CONDITIONS (AROUND 20F) ARE OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
850MB THERMAL TROF...AND AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE/ICE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
REMAINING UNPHASED AS THEY AFFECT THE AREA TUE. THE SRN WAVE WILL
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE SW INTO THE DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW...AND IT
WILL BE THE DRIVER OF THE SNOW THAT SPREADS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IT
APPEARS 1 MAIN STREAK OF PCPN OR AT LEAST MORE ORGANIZED/HEAVIER
PCPN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE SW. THIS PCPN WILL STREAK NE ACROSS
SD INTO CNTRL MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE/ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT EXIT OF 150KT JET
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 125KT
JET STREAK OVER ND INTO NRN ONTARIO. MORE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO GET
ORGANIZED FARTHER E LATE IN THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
BROADER WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGIN TO SATURATE DRIER AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN TIMING THE PCPN INTO
WRN AND SRN UPPER MI IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME...AND STARTING ACROSS
THE N AND E AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SO...LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WILL
BE REQUIRED WITH ONSET TIMING. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 12Z.
ON TUE...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS NE ACROSS NE MN/WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN WILL QUICKLY EXPAND/INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS AIR MASS SATURATES AND DEEP LAYER FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. ON THE 285K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB)...MIXING
RATIOS AROUND 2.5G/KG ARE AVBL...SUGGESTING SOMETHING AROUND 3
INCHES OF SNOW FOR 6-9HRS OF ASCENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OTHER
FACTORS AT PLAY...A WIDESPREAD FAIRLY UNIFORM 3-5 INCH SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TUE...WHICH FALLS NICELY INLINE
WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF NUMBERS FROM THE MODELS CONVERTED TO SNOW
USING A 15 TO 1 OR SO SNOW RATIO. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR SEVERAL HRS AND AIR MASS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BOOST TO SNOW TOTALS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH ICE COVER WILL LIMIT THE
ENHANCEMENT OVER WHAT IT COULD BE. THAT AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO 5 INCHES THAN 3...AND NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS E TUE AFTN...RESULTING IN SNOW RAPIDLY DIMINISHING W TO E
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN HRS. IN FACT...IT MAY END COMPLETELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTN. WITH SNOW RATIO LIKELY
UNDER 20 TO 1...THIS SYSTEM WILL ACHIEVE THE WETTER SNOW TYPE ADVY
CRITERIA OF AN AVG SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 3IN/12HR OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. SO...ADVY WILL BE HOISTED ACROSS THE BOARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION QUICKLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THEN...AS COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND -11C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
TO -26C AT 18Z WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATER. THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION FOR
THE LAKE EFFECT FORECAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL LARGER
AREAS OF OPEN WATER AND SLUSH OVER WESTERN...NORTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THOSE AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN REPRESENTED
IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT...SO I DON/T FEEL THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IN THE QPF FIELDS.
THUS...HAVE PERFORMED SIGNIFICANT HAND EDITS TO THE GRIDS...BOTH IN
RAISING POPS AND HIGHLIGHTING AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE CURRENT OPEN
WATER AREAS. WITH THE STRONG WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THOSE AREAS OF OPEN WATER WILL LIKELY EXPAND
AND MOVE...SO THAT DOES INCREASE THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SOME...BUT EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR...THINK THE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE
ICE COVER EXPANDING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE LAKE
EFFECT WON/T BE TOO STRONG INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUD WILL
BE WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO A FLUFFY INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 7-9KFT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SUPPORT MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY EVEN
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...SNOWFLAKE SIZE SHOULD BE SMALL AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUPLE INCH RANGE FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AREAS DOWNWIND
OF THE OPEN WATER. IN ADDITION...RECENT SNOWFALL AND THE STRONG
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE FINE FLAKED LAKE EFFECT SNOW...THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE AND IN THE STRONGER BANDS
LIKELY BELOW 1/2MI. FORTUNATELY...WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF THE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST...THE IMPACT FOR AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE IN THE AREAS TO THE EAST OF MUNISING AND GENERALLY LESS
POPULATED AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING WINDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE (LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS). A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A GRADUALLY DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD WHILE FOLLOWING THE WIND DIRECTIONS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO TURN A LITTLE
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (INTO THE LOWER
30S). BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE IS LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE MODELS HANDLE A COUPLE WAVES COMING ON
SHORE IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE 12Z GFS/GEM SLIDE THE WAVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE
WAVES BECOMING SEPARATED AND SPLITTING THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EITHER WAY WITH THE LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL
ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LIKELY PULLING IN THE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR A
WHILE THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THEN WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH AND A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS...SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORMAL SNOW BELTS. WITH THE FAVORABLE
850MB TEMPS (AROUND -14 TO -18C MONDAY)...WILL TREND POPS UP TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCES FOR NOW UNTIL WE ARE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE ICE SITUATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND ALASKA FOR THE LAST MONTH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND START MELTING SOME OF THE
SNOWPACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD
(AROUND 10Z) AND AT KCMX/KSAW AROUND 12Z AS INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SW
FLOW WILL LEAD TO SNOW DEVELOPMENT. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING (BTWN 20-22Z) WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING W WINDS IN WAKE OF LOW PRES TROF/COLD
FROPA. W WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT KCMX COULD LEAD TO SOME
BLSN AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TUE EVENING. EXPECT KSAW TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUE EVENING IN DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME S
AND RAMP UP TONIGHT AND TUE TO 15-25KT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
LO PRES TROF. ONCE THE TROF PASSES TO THE E TUE NIGHT...TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
NW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER
WED...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND
94 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1201 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
INCOMING WINTER STORM WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ON THE
VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN LATE TONIGHT.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING THE RETURNS INCREASING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
TWO AND THE COLUMN QUICKLY BECOMING SATURATED AS THE AREA OF SNOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST RAP MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF
700MB F-GEN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF STRONG WAA...AND THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST SNOWFALL DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THIS FORCING. THIS AREA
OF F-GEN WILL DEFINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...AND IS STILL EXPECTED FROM AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES/LAKE MILLE LACS AREA NEWD TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NW WISCONSIN. A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THIS ZONE. OTHER AREAS TO THE NORTH/NW...AND EVEN TO
THE SE...SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WILL SEE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STILL
BE THIS MORNING FROM AROUND 5 AM TO 11 AM.
THE SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NW MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT VERY GUSTY
WINDS. STILL EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE INITIAL SNOW THIS MORNING...AND BLOWING SNOW
LATER TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. NO CHANGES...SPATIAL OR TIMING...HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
POURING IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850MB TEMPS FROM -25 TO -28
DEG C ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AIR MASS. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW
ZERO...AND THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -35 F RANGE. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY TO BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND WEST
FROM THIS LOW...AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY AS WELL. EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND AM CARRYING SOME SMALL
POPS FOR THIS ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
FAIRLY STEEP SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA A LITTLE MORE
AND ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND THE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES ARE PULLED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH SHORE EAST OF ASHLAND...
BUT WIND TRAJECTORY IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS
LOW. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW WILL DISCUSS IN HWO...AND WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET
CLOSER IN.
THURSDAY SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS IN ALOFT AND HIGHS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE...IF NOT WARMER. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S. INITIALLY THIS WARMING SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...PURE MIXING TECHNIQUES WOULD INDICATE MID 20S TO LOW
30S...AND THEN YOU ADD IN SOME SUNSHINE AND OUR DARK TREES AND
SUDDENLY THOSE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUESTIONABLE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE
BRINGING SOME WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA ALOFT...BUT WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPERS...AND OUR
DECENT SNOWPACK...AM WONDERING IF WE MIGHT NOT GET A BUNCH OF
STRATUS AND FOG AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF SUNSHINE AND MID
30S. HAVE LEFT CONSENSUS ALONE IN THIS LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION...
BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG CAA AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO MVFR AND EVEN SOME VFR AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS...THERE ARE OFTEN SOME LINGERING
CLOUD STREETS AND SPOTTY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS COULD MEAN
SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT OR EVEN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 -9 4 -11 / 100 10 10 0
INL 24 -15 3 -19 / 60 10 10 0
BRD 22 -11 5 -14 / 100 10 10 0
HYR 27 -8 6 -15 / 100 10 20 10
ASX 28 -4 7 -8 / 100 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ011-
012-018-019-021-025-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ020-
033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
556 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
INCOMING WINTER STORM WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ON THE
VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN LATE TONIGHT.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING THE RETURNS INCREASING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
TWO AND THE COLUMN QUICKLY BECOMING SATURATED AS THE AREA OF SNOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST RAP MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF
700MB F-GEN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF STRONG WAA...AND THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST SNOWFALL DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THIS FORCING. THIS AREA
OF F-GEN WILL DEFINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...AND IS STILL EXPECTED FROM AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES/LAKE MILLE LACS AREA NEWD TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NW WISCONSIN. A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THIS ZONE. OTHER AREAS TO THE NORTH/NW...AND EVEN TO
THE SE...SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WILL SEE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STILL
BE THIS MORNING FROM AROUND 5 AM TO 11 AM.
THE SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NW MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT VERY GUSTY
WINDS. STILL EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE INITIAL SNOW THIS MORNING...AND BLOWING SNOW
LATER TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. NO CHANGES...SPATIAL OR TIMING...HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
POURING IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850MB TEMPS FROM -25 TO -28
DEG C ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AIR MASS. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW
ZERO...AND THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -35 F RANGE. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY TO BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND WEST
FROM THIS LOW...AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY AS WELL. EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND AM CARRYING SOME SMALL
POPS FOR THIS ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
FAIRLY STEEP SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA A LITTLE MORE
AND ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND THE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES ARE PULLED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH SHORE EAST OF ASHLAND...
BUT WIND TRAJECTORY IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS
LOW. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW WILL DISCUSS IN HWO...AND WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET
CLOSER IN.
THURSDAY SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS IN ALOFT AND HIGHS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE...IF NOT WARMER. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S. INITIALLY THIS WARMING SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...PURE MIXING TECHNIQUES WOULD INDICATE MID 20S TO LOW
30S...AND THEN YOU ADD IN SOME SUNSHINE AND OUR DARK TREES AND
SUDDENLY THOSE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUESTIONABLE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE
BRINGING SOME WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA ALOFT...BUT WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPERS...AND OUR
DECENT SNOWPACK...AM WONDERING IF WE MIGHT NOT GET A BUNCH OF
STRATUS AND FOG AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF SUNSHINE AND MID
30S. HAVE LEFT CONSENSUS ALONE IN THIS LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION...
BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
BAND OF SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT KBRD...KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR UNTIL 18Z-21Z. KINL
TO ONLY GET IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS BAND.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AFTER
18Z...AND THOUGH SNOW EXPECTED TO END...BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES MVFR. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
21Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS TO DIMINISH AGAIN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 -9 4 -11 / 100 10 10 0
INL 19 -15 3 -19 / 60 10 10 0
BRD 22 -11 5 -14 / 100 10 10 0
HYR 27 -8 6 -15 / 100 10 20 10
ASX 28 -4 7 -8 / 100 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ020-
033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
335 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
INCOMING WINTER STORM WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS ON THE
VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH IN LATE TONIGHT.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING THE RETURNS INCREASING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
TWO AND THE COLUMN QUICKLY BECOMING SATURATED AS THE AREA OF SNOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST RAP MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF
700MB F-GEN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF STRONG WAA...AND THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST SNOWFALL DIRECTLY IN LINE WITH THIS FORCING. THIS AREA
OF F-GEN WILL DEFINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...AND IS STILL EXPECTED FROM AROUND THE BRAINERD
LAKES/LAKE MILLE LACS AREA NEWD TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NW WISCONSIN. A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THIS ZONE. OTHER AREAS TO THE NORTH/NW...AND EVEN TO
THE SE...SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WILL SEE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STILL
BE THIS MORNING FROM AROUND 5 AM TO 11 AM.
THE SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NW MN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT VERY GUSTY
WINDS. STILL EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE INITIAL SNOW THIS MORNING...AND BLOWING SNOW
LATER TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. NO CHANGES...SPATIAL OR TIMING...HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
POURING IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850MB TEMPS FROM -25 TO -28
DEG C ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AIR MASS. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW
ZERO...AND THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -35 F RANGE. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY TO BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND WEST
FROM THIS LOW...AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY AS WELL. EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND AM CARRYING SOME SMALL
POPS FOR THIS ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
FAIRLY STEEP SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA A LITTLE MORE
AND ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND THE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES ARE PULLED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH SHORE EAST OF ASHLAND...
BUT WIND TRAJECTORY IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS
LOW. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW WILL DISCUSS IN HWO...AND WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET
CLOSER IN.
THURSDAY SOME STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS IN ALOFT AND HIGHS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE...IF NOT WARMER. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S. INITIALLY THIS WARMING SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...PURE MIXING TECHNIQUES WOULD INDICATE MID 20S TO LOW
30S...AND THEN YOU ADD IN SOME SUNSHINE AND OUR DARK TREES AND
SUDDENLY THOSE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUESTIONABLE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE
BRINGING SOME WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA ALOFT...BUT WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPERS...AND OUR
DECENT SNOWPACK...AM WONDERING IF WE MIGHT NOT GET A BUNCH OF
STRATUS AND FOG AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF SUNSHINE AND MID
30S. HAVE LEFT CONSENSUS ALONE IN THIS LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION...
BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z...THEN LOWERING CEILINGS AS SNOW
SPREADS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR WITH THE SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS
DECREASING NORTHWARD FOR THE KHIB AND KINL AREAS. THE MAIN PERIOD
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 -9 4 -11 / 100 10 10 0
INL 19 -15 3 -19 / 60 10 10 0
BRD 22 -11 5 -14 / 100 10 10 0
HYR 27 -8 6 -15 / 100 10 20 10
ASX 28 -4 7 -8 / 100 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ020-
033>038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
251 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.
TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.
EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
00/B 00/N 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
10/B 00/N 01/B 21/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
00/U 00/B 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
20/U 00/B 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
10/B 00/B 00/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
20/B 00/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 00/U 00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
327 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AD RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS AGREE THAT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
BAND WILL NOT LAST LONG...AROUND 3 OR 4 HOURS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO WITHIN THIS BAND. INITIALLY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
BY 20 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL
INCREASE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 06Z OR
SO. LIFT WILL BE WEAKER TO THE NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. SHOULD
SEE A FAIRLY QUICK TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. THE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES A
LITTLE BETTER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ /EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE JUST
ABOVE THE DGZ/ SO THAT GAVE A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE...AND WILL TAKE
LOW END LIKELY POPS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEW 18Z NAM MODEL
RUN.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE. STILL PRETTY COLD WEDNESDAY...WITH H850MB NOT WARMING MUCH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND STAYING WELL BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
BUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GROUND LOOKS PRETTY
BARE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WARMER DRIER AIR MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER
PATTERN LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST PATTERN SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PULL ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLOW
CLIMB THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KSLC...WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND
EXPECT A PERIOD...AROUND 4 HOURS OR SO...OF MVFR AND SNOW AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 07Z
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KTS FROM THE NORTH...AND
THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS NRN NEB WILL EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LEAVING A GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 850 MB.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO SAY THE
MODELS CAME IN A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A
WOBBLE IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR...RAP...MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG SUGGESTS
GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE GUSTS. SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK.
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE
HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE
FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING
ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z THE ICING
THREAT SHOULD END.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WIND CHILL READING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES
WILL BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MINUS 20 THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY
DOWNSLOPING WARMING WESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY. THUS...BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS SUPREME. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS TEN OR COLDER UNTIL
NOON. THEREAFTER...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT A SHARP TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST TO BAJA WILL SPLIT AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT ALLOW THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS...THE PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR A MORE
DIRECT PATH FROM THE PACIFIC...RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LATELY. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LEAVING BEHIND A GREATER SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND. THE
DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA TO PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY...WITH
50S ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS HAS A
GREATER PACIFIC INFLUENCE...THUS TEMPERATURES ONLY ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE GFS HAS CAME IN
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE THE WAVE ARRIVES
WILL LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE TROPOSPHERE ARE
RATHER LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. BEYOND
SATURDAY...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME REIGNS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WARMUP. THE MODELS ADVERTISE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KSLC...WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND
EXPECT A PERIOD...AROUND 4 HOURS OR SO...OF MVFR AND SNOW AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 07Z
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KTS FROM THE NORTH...AND
THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
523 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS NRN NEB WILL EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LEAVING A GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 850 MB.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO SAY THE
MODELS CAME IN A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A
WOBBLE IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR...RAP...MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG SUGGESTS
GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE GUSTS. SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK.
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE
HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE
FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING
ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z THE ICING
THREAT SHOULD END.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WIND CHILL READING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES
WILL BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MINUS 20 THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY
DOWNSLOPING WARMING WESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY. THUS...BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS SUPREME. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS TEN OR COLDER UNTIL
NOON. THEREAFTER...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT A SHARP TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST TO BAJA WILL SPLIT AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT ALLOW THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS...THE PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR A MORE
DIRECT PATH FROM THE PACIFIC...RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LATELY. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LEAVING BEHIND A GREATER SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND. THE
DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA TO PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY...WITH
50S ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS HAS A
GREATER PACIFIC INFLUENCE...THUS TEMPERATURES ONLY ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE GFS HAS CAME IN
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE THE WAVE ARRIVES
WILL LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE TROPOSPHERE ARE
RATHER LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. BEYOND
SATURDAY...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME REIGNS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WARMUP. THE MODELS ADVERTISE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR/LOCAL LIFR IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FOG CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING AND THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR 15Z-18Z.
VFR/MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 18Z ONWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 34025G40KT THIS MORNING AND DECREASE
DURING THE AFTN.
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH
TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE SNOW IS MORE LIKELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS NRN NEB WILL EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LEAVING A GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 850 MB.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO SAY THE
MODELS CAME IN A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A
WOBBLE IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR...RAP...MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG SUGGESTS
GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE GUSTS. SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK.
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE
HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE
FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING
ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z THE ICING
THREAT SHOULD END.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WIND CHILL READING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES
WILL BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MINUS 20 THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY
DOWNSLOPING WARMING WESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY. THUS...BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS SUPREME. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS TEN OR COLDER UNTIL
NOON. THEREAFTER...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT A SHARP TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST TO BAJA WILL SPLIT AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT ALLOW THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS...THE PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR A MORE
DIRECT PATH FROM THE PACIFIC...RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LATELY. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LEAVING BEHIND A GREATER SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND. THE
DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA TO PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY...WITH
50S ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS HAS A
GREATER PACIFIC INFLUENCE...THUS TEMPERATURES ONLY ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE GFS HAS CAME IN
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE THE WAVE ARRIVES
WILL LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE TROPOSPHERE ARE
RATHER LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. BEYOND
SATURDAY...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME REIGNS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WARMUP. THE MODELS ADVERTISE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.
WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST
ASPECT OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO
QUICK THAN WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).
FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
650 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).
FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...
AFTER A PLEASANTLY WARM DAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS WORKING ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY...WITH NOTICEABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG IT...MOVING
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THIS COMPLICATES THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS THE DRIER...SUB-20F DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH BUT MAY ULTIMATELY BE HALTED
OR SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. MOST MODEL ARENT HANDLING THIS VERY
WELL...EVIDENT IN PART BY THE MUCH DRIER THAN FORECAST BOUNDARY
LAYER ON THE 00Z KGSO RAOB...SO WILL LEAN ON THE RAP/HRRR WHICH HAS
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT...BUT AS SOME 290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HIGHER BASED STRATUS SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD STABILIZE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE 1) WHETHER OR NOT
ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SPREADS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS BEFORE A WEAK DIURNAL RECOVERY IN TEMPS BEGINS
ON TUESDAY MORNING...OR 2) PRECIP IS EVEN HEAVY ENOUGH WETBULB TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE THEY ARE INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING.
18Z AND 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT
BEST AND MOSTLY COMING AFTER 12Z. THE RAP AND HRRR ARE COMPLETELY
DRY THROUGH 12Z. WILL LOWER POPS A LITTLE AND JUST MAINTAIN A
MENTION JUST FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE SMALL AREA WHERE TEMPS AT AT
OR BELOW 32...WHICH IS CONFINED TO JUST THE NORTH PIEDMONT PRIOR TO
15Z. NO ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY WILL MOVE LITTLE OFF MORNING LOWS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL NC TUE
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD TAPER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS WITH
EXPANDING FOG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
THE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY LINGERING
WEDGE AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT TO WHICH THE WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE
TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO
IT...CURRENTLY FORECAST THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WEDGE/WARM FRONT AS THEY ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE NW.
KEEPING IN MIND THE POTENTIAL MARGIN FOR ERRORS...FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE LARGE AND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION: THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE
MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY ALONG OR WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFT/EVE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY AFT/EVE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS STARTING TO SHAPE UP
AS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-300
JOULES OF CAPE AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95 AT THIS TIME. WITH SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE
MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE EAST WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
AND GFS MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PROGRESSING NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRING THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING. A WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER UPSTATE SC... WHICH IN TURN
HELPS TO HOLD UP THE COLD FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM REACHING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE STRONGEST CAA SHOULD ALSO LAG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION
OF OUR CURRENT PREDOMINATELY RAIN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR WINTERY MIX NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT BETWEEN 18Z AND
23Z OR SO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.
P-TYPE NOMOGRAMS SUPPORT SOME MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
THEN EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET AT THE VERY VERY END OF
THE EVENT... ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST WET BULB TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH SOME MODEL VARIABILITY ALSO TARGET THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM DAVIDSON TO RANDOLPH TO WAKE TO WARREN COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END QUICKLY BETWEEN 21Z-00Z... LIMITING THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ICE TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARD. TO THE
SOUTH... ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE SLOWER TO COOL TEMPERATURES
THERE.
ALL IN ALL... A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME WITH THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH (IF AT
ALL)... AND THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND TIME OF DAY WOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL TO MOSTLY ELEVATED SURFACES.
THURSDAY NIGHT... BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO A QUICK
FREEZE OF RESIDUAL WATER LEFT BEHIND WHICH MAY BECOME A WEATHER
HAZARD. OTHERWISE... SIMPLY CLEARING AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20-25
RANGE.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH THE HEART OF THE
ARCTIC COLD EXPECTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. WE WILL STILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MODERATION WILL OCCUR IN THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH SLIPS SOUTH AND A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS SHOULD RAPIDLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
SUNDAY. A DRIER PATTERN IS ALSO ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...
STRONG (1032 MB) BUT TRANSIENT MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE SOUTH INTO NC TONIGHT...THEN BUILD QUICKLY OFFSHORE ON TUE.
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE THREATENED WITH FIRST
A NARROW BAND OF LOW MVFR CLOUDS THAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN
SWEEP...IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 02-07Z...LASTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR JUST 2-3 HOURS BEFORE DEPARTING.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF 4-5 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS OVER SC WILL EXPAND
NORTH AS THE FLOW IN THAT LAYER STRENGTHENS AND CAUSES AIR TO GENTLY
RISE ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
THAT CEILINGS WITHIN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
TO INTO MVFR RANGE FROM WSW TO ENE ON TUE - FIRST AT KINT/KGSO AND
LAST AT KRWI. THERE IS A LESSER...MEDIUM CHANCE (AROUND 50
PERCENT)... THAT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR...WITH ACCOMPANYING
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY AT KGSO/KINT...AND PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS KRDU...TUE MORNING. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO INDEED
OCCUR... TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AT KINT/KGSO...WHERE
AN ASSOCIATED PERIOD OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: TUE NIGHT: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST AND LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SUCH THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES
IN DENSE FOG...ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL LATE TUE NIGHT-WED
MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLOW RETREAT/APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WED-THU: A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE PROBABLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT LATER WED AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU...BUT THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE DELAYED...OR MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL AT KINT/KGSO...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT AND AREA OF RAIN ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WED NIGHT...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z IN THE VALLEY...GETTING
WINDS INTO CRITERIA NOW. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOST REVOLVING AROUND STRONG
COLD FRONT AND SNOW BAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-EAST ASSOCIATED
WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL AND BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WILL FOLLOW RUC/HRRR WHICH ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN DEPICTING
DEVELOPING SNOW BAND. REASON IS MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
TEND TO OUT PERFORM LARGER SCALE MODELS IN SNOW COVERAGE WHICH
WILL BE KEY TO POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED FROM SW-NE SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. EARLY GOING LOOKS LIKE OPERATIONAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH WITH SNOW BAND. SO FAR BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE MN/ND/SD BORDER REGION
INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MN. RUC PUTS THIS AREA ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND WHILE THE HRRR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
CLIPPING POSSIBLY GRANT COUNTY. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH RUC MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 285K
SURFACE FARTHER SOUTH SUPPORTING HRRR SOLUTION. RUC THEN SHIFTS
MAIN SNOW BAND EAST OF TARGET AREA MID-LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW COVER FROM FROM COOPS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SLIM TO NONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH SO WILL BE RELYING ON FALLING/ACCUMULATING SNOW.
BASED ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
WHEN SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. OUTPUT FROM LOCAL BLOWING SNOW
MODEL MARGINAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH OVER 30KTS SUSTAINED
NECESSARY FOR BLIZZARD WITH FALLING SNOW AND NEARLY 40KTS WITH NO
SNOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONVINCING DATA BEFORE GOING WITH
BLIZZARD WARNING. OF COURSE ITS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND SHOULD BE AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND START OF SCHOOL. WITH THIS REASONING WILL
REPLACE BLIZZARD WATCH WITH ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
CONFIDENCE LOWERING THAT MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORY BUT MONITOR AT NEXT UPDATE PERIOD.
N AND W OF THIS AREA ISOLD SHSN ABOUT THE ONLY THING HAPPENING
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WITH NO BLOWABLE SNOW WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT
HEADLINES. ONCE FRONT GOES THROUGH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
TONIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SINCE WIND CHILLS NOT
TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL EVENING HELD OFF ON HEADLINES
WITH OTHER MORE IMPORTANT HEADLINES ONGOING DURING THE DAY. COLD
POOL SETTLES OVER FA LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY DROPPING BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SURFACE HIGH DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE SEEING SOME W-SW SURFACE WIND ALONG WITH WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF VALLEY
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND COLDEST READINGS MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MIXING AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THURSDAY BUT STILL BLO AVERAGE WITH INITIAL
COLD START.
GFS SOLE MODEL PAINTING QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE DURATION. HOWEVER THE FLOW DOES START TO TURN MORE WEST-NW BY
MONDAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE PROMISE OF EVEN BETTER THINGS TO
COME BY MID NEXT WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST...MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK
WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE THE MAIN SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN CANADA WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST. NEXT WEAK WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN
SFC REFLECTION STAYS IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THIS TIME THE MODELS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH/NE FA. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN
STORE. 00Z GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR THIS ONE. KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
BUT STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI-SUN AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVES MOVE THROUGH. ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER
CONFIDENCE BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW STARTS TO TURN WEST-NW AND THE
ECMWF ESPECIALLY INDICATES WARMER 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WINDS WILL GUST NEAR OR OVER 30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY THIS EVENING. A MIX OF
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT KTVF/KBJI...OR WITHIN
ANY BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ024-
027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
916 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WE WILL BE CANCELING CASS/CLAY/SARGENT AND RANSOM COUNTIES FROM
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH LITTLE SNOW HERE AND NO BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR RANSOM/SARGENT.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED BUT WE WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR A WIND ADVISORY INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOST REVOLVING AROUND STRONG
COLD FRONT AND SNOW BAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-EAST ASSOCIATED
WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL AND BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WILL FOLLOW RUC/HRRR WHICH ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN DEPICTING
DEVELOPING SNOW BAND. REASON IS MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
TEND TO OUT PERFORM LARGER SCALE MODELS IN SNOW COVERAGE WHICH
WILL BE KEY TO POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED FROM SW-NE SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. EARLY GOING LOOKS LIKE OPERATIONAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH WITH SNOW BAND. SO FAR BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE MN/ND/SD BORDER REGION
INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MN. RUC PUTS THIS AREA ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND WHILE THE HRRR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
CLIPPING POSSIBLY GRANT COUNTY. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH RUC MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 285K
SURFACE FARTHER SOUTH SUPPORTING HRRR SOLUTION. RUC THEN SHIFTS
MAIN SNOW BAND EAST OF TARGET AREA MID-LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW COVER FROM FROM COOPS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SLIM TO NONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH SO WILL BE RELYING ON FALLING/ACCUMULATING SNOW.
BASED ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
WHEN SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. OUTPUT FROM LOCAL BLOWING SNOW
MODEL MARGINAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH OVER 30KTS SUSTAINED
NECESSARY FOR BLIZZARD WITH FALLING SNOW AND NEARLY 40KTS WITH NO
SNOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONVINCING DATA BEFORE GOING WITH
BLIZZARD WARNING. OF COURSE ITS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND SHOULD BE AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND START OF SCHOOL. WITH THIS REASONING WILL
REPLACE BLIZZARD WATCH WITH ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
CONFIDENCE LOWERING THAT MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORY BUT MONITOR AT NEXT UPDATE PERIOD.
N AND W OF THIS AREA ISOLD SHSN ABOUT THE ONLY THING HAPPENING
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WITH NO BLOWABLE SNOW WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT
HEADLINES. ONCE FRONT GOES THROUGH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
TONIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SINCE WIND CHILLS NOT
TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL EVENING HELD OFF ON HEADLINES
WITH OTHER MORE IMPORTANT HEADLINES ONGOING DURING THE DAY. COLD
POOL SETTLES OVER FA LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY DROPPING BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SURFACE HIGH DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE SEEING SOME W-SW SURFACE WIND ALONG WITH WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF VALLEY
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND COLDEST READINGS MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MIXING AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THURSDAY BUT STILL BLO AVERAGE WITH INITIAL
COLD START.
GFS SOLE MODEL PAINTING QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE DURATION. HOWEVER THE FLOW DOES START TO TURN MORE WEST-NW BY
MONDAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE PROMISE OF EVEN BETTER THINGS TO
COME BY MID NEXT WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST...MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK
WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE THE MAIN SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN CANADA WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST. NEXT WEAK WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN
SFC REFLECTION STAYS IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THIS TIME THE MODELS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH/NE FA. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN
STORE. 00Z GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR THIS ONE. KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
BUT STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI-SUN AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVES MOVE THROUGH. ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER
CONFIDENCE BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW STARTS TO TURN WEST-NW AND THE
ECMWF ESPECIALLY INDICATES WARMER 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
LOWER CIGS MASKED BY CI HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF MVFR
CIGS OVER ALL BUT DVL BASIN WERE CLEARING TAKING PLACE. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SC DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY HOWEVER KEPT MVFR
CIGS LIMITED TO THE AM. STRONG NW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE FA.
LOWER VSBY IN SN/BLSN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-038-049-052.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ024-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
647 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
VIA KABR WSR-88D RADAR RETURNS SHRINKING AND DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AND VSBY FROM METARS RISING. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT
NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA/CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL
MAINTAIN THOSE HEADLINES AS -SN CONTINUES AND MORNING COMMUTE SOON
TO START. JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA SNOW REPORTS RANGING FROM
2-3 INCHES SO THIS AREA OK. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE DAY SHIFT CAN
START TRIMMING ADVISORY AREA AT MID MORNING UPDATE. WINDS ALSO YET
TO REV UP OVER WESTERN ADVISORY AREA HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE ONCE
MIX LAYER DEEPENS. NO CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOST REVOLVING AROUND STRONG
COLD FRONT AND SNOW BAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-EAST ASSOCIATED
WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL AND BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WILL FOLLOW RUC/HRRR WHICH ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN DEPICTING
DEVELOPING SNOW BAND. REASON IS MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
TEND TO OUT PERFORM LARGER SCALE MODELS IN SNOW COVERAGE WHICH
WILL BE KEY TO POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED FROM SW-NE SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. EARLY GOING LOOKS LIKE OPERATIONAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH WITH SNOW BAND. SO FAR BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE MN/ND/SD BORDER REGION
INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MN. RUC PUTS THIS AREA ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND WHILE THE HRRR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
CLIPPING POSSIBLY GRANT COUNTY. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH RUC MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 285K
SURFACE FARTHER SOUTH SUPPORTING HRRR SOLUTION. RUC THEN SHIFTS
MAIN SNOW BAND EAST OF TARGET AREA MID-LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW COVER FROM FROM COOPS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SLIM TO NONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH SO WILL BE RELYING ON FALLING/ACCUMULATING SNOW.
BASED ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
WHEN SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. OUTPUT FROM LOCAL BLOWING SNOW
MODEL MARGINAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH OVER 30KTS SUSTAINED
NECESSARY FOR BLIZZARD WITH FALLING SNOW AND NEARLY 40KTS WITH NO
SNOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONVINCING DATA BEFORE GOING WITH
BLIZZARD WARNING. OF COURSE ITS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND SHOULD BE AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND START OF SCHOOL. WITH THIS REASONING WILL
REPLACE BLIZZARD WATCH WITH ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
CONFIDENCE LOWERING THAT MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORY BUT MONITOR AT NEXT UPDATE PERIOD.
N AND W OF THIS AREA ISOLD SHSN ABOUT THE ONLY THING HAPPENING
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WITH NO BLOWABLE SNOW WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT
HEADLINES. ONCE FRONT GOES THROUGH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
TONIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SINCE WIND CHILLS NOT
TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL EVENING HELD OFF ON HEADLINES
WITH OTHER MORE IMPORTANT HEADLINES ONGOING DURING THE DAY. COLD
POOL SETTLES OVER FA LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY DROPPING BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SURFACE HIGH DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE SEEING SOME W-SW SURFACE WIND ALONG WITH WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF VALLEY
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND COLDEST READINGS MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MIXING AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THURSDAY BUT STILL BLO AVERAGE WITH INITIAL
COLD START.
GFS SOLE MODEL PAINTING QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE DURATION. HOWEVER THE FLOW DOES START TO TURN MORE WEST-NW BY
MONDAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE PROMISE OF EVEN BETTER THINGS TO
COME BY MID NEXT WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST...MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK
WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE THE MAIN SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN CANADA WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST. NEXT WEAK WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN
SFC REFLECTION STAYS IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THIS TIME THE MODELS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH/NE FA. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN
STORE. 00Z GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR THIS ONE. KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
BUT STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI-SUN AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVES MOVE THROUGH. ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER
CONFIDENCE BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW STARTS TO TURN WEST-NW AND THE
ECMWF ESPECIALLY INDICATES WARMER 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
LOWER CIGS MASKED BY CI HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF MVFR
CIGS OVER ALL BUT DVL BASIN WERE CLEARING TAKING PLACE. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SC DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY HOWEVER KEPT MVFR
CIGS LIMITED TO THE AM. STRONG NW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE FA.
LOWER VSBY IN SN/BLSN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-
049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-
024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
328 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOST REVOLVING AROUND STRONG
COLD FRONT AND SNOW BAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-EAST ASSOCIATED
WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL AND BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WILL FOLLOW RUC/HRRR WHICH ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN DEPICTING
DEVELOPING SNOW BAND. REASON IS MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
TEND TO OUT PERFORM LARGER SCALE MODELS IN SNOW COVERAGE WHICH
WILL BE KEY TO POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW BAND JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED FROM SW-NE SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. EARLY GOING LOOKS LIKE OPERATIONAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR
NORTH WITH SNOW BAND. SO FAR BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
SIGNIFICANT BLSN/SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE MN/ND/SD BORDER REGION
INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MN. RUC PUTS THIS AREA ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND WHILE THE HRRR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
CLIPPING POSSIBLY GRANT COUNTY. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH RUC MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 285K
SURFACE FARTHER SOUTH SUPPORTING HRRR SOLUTION. RUC THEN SHIFTS
MAIN SNOW BAND EAST OF TARGET AREA MID-LATE MORNING.
SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
SNOW COVER FROM FROM COOPS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SLIM TO NONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH SO WILL BE RELYING ON FALLING/ACCUMULATING SNOW.
BASED ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
WHEN SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. OUTPUT FROM LOCAL BLOWING SNOW
MODEL MARGINAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH OVER 30KTS SUSTAINED
NECESSARY FOR BLIZZARD WITH FALLING SNOW AND NEARLY 40KTS WITH NO
SNOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONVINCING DATA BEFORE GOING WITH
BLIZZARD WARNING. OF COURSE ITS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND SHOULD BE AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND START OF SCHOOL. WITH THIS REASONING WILL
REPLACE BLIZZARD WATCH WITH ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
CONFIDENCE LOWERING THAT MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORY BUT MONITOR AT NEXT UPDATE PERIOD.
N AND W OF THIS AREA ISOLD SHSN ABOUT THE ONLY THING HAPPENING
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WITH NO BLOWABLE SNOW WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT
HEADLINES. ONCE FRONT GOES THROUGH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
TONIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. SINCE WIND CHILLS NOT
TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL EVENING HELD OFF ON HEADLINES
WITH OTHER MORE IMPORTANT HEADLINES ONGOING DURING THE DAY. COLD
POOL SETTLES OVER FA LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY DROPPING BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SURFACE HIGH DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE SEEING SOME W-SW SURFACE WIND ALONG WITH WARM
ADVECTION. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF VALLEY
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND COLDEST READINGS MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY.
MIXING AND RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THURSDAY BUT STILL BLO AVERAGE WITH INITIAL
COLD START.
GFS SOLE MODEL PAINTING QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE DURATION. HOWEVER THE FLOW DOES START TO TURN MORE WEST-NW BY
MONDAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE PROMISE OF EVEN BETTER THINGS TO
COME BY MID NEXT WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST...MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK
WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE THE MAIN SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN CANADA WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST. NEXT WEAK WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN
SFC REFLECTION STAYS IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THIS TIME THE MODELS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH/NE FA. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN
STORE. 00Z GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR THIS ONE. KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
BUT STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI-SUN AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVES MOVE THROUGH. ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER
CONFIDENCE BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW STARTS TO TURN WEST-NW AND THE
ECMWF ESPECIALLY INDICATES WARMER 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7 THOUSAND FT
WAS EAST OF A LINE FROM ROX TO WYNDMERE ND. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST ND. POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS WERE OVER WESTERN
ND. LOW CLOUDS WERE BEING MASKED BY A HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-
049-052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-
024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1204 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WITH SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE...HAVE EXTENDED FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH TO 3 PM.
PREVIOUS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH INITIAL FOCUS ON THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEN SWITCHING TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT
AND HEAVY SNOW WED/THU.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEAD TO AN AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN ACRS ILN/S
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS HAS
PIVOTED NORTH AND EAST OF ILN/S FA.
ILN/S 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WARM BULGE ALOFT OF 6 DEG C
AROUND 78O MB BUT RATHER DRY AIR BELOW THIS. WITH LIGHT ECHO
RETURNS...THIS HAS LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.
BETTER LIFT COMING INTO PLAY BY LATE MORNING AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 60-65 KT LLJ. SEEING THIS
BETTER FORCING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS ACRS
INDIANA. CURRENTLY IN LULL BUT HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALLOWED THE SRN TIER OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. SOME SFC ROAD/WALKWAY TEMPS
WILL LAG. THEREFORE...HAVE AN SPS THRU NOON ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.
HAVE KEPT NRN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THRU 1 PM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM THE
EAST TO THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR
THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTER. DUE
TO THIS REASON HELD OFF ON A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA. DID GO AHEAD
AND EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SOUTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE EVEN LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. CHANGED A TIER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SINCE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. KEPT A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET
MIXING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL NOT
GET ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES
HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT CHANGE
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD
WATCH.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION A MIX OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NW OF DAYTON WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THEY DO RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. DURING THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW
HOWEVER A WINTRY MIX WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS FURTHER NW OF INTERSTATE 71. EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO COVER ALL BUT FRANKLIN INDIANA AND BUTLER COUNTY
OHIO OF THE 4 INCH SNOW CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE NW EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE
COUNTIES OUT AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WATCH
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE REST OF THE WATCH WITH AROUND 6
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. ALTHOUGH SOME
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AGAIN...DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW WARM IT WILL
GET ON FRIDAY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT BUT
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND A STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL BE IN PLAY.
WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THE MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL
STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S
READINGS...30S AND 40S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AVERAGING A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH KDAY ALREADY REPORTING FZDZ. EXPECT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT
THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT
QUICKLY REDEVELOPS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/ NAM AND RAP
SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CIGS FALLING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS AM A LITTLE
HESITANT WITH THIS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO AGAIN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ063>065-070>074-077.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ050-058-059.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ066-073-074.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1022 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LETTING MUCH OF THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
645 AM UPDATE...
PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING OUT
OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE AS
IS FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.
STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. ANY VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NORTH WILL END BY 18Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH INITIAL FOCUS ON THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEN SWITCHING TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT
AND HEAVY SNOW WED/THU.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LEAD TO AN AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN ACRS ILN/S
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS HAS
PIVOTED NORTH AND EAST OF ILN/S FA.
ILN/S 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WARM BULGE ALOFT OF 6 DEG C
AROUND 78O MB BUT RATHER DRY AIR BELOW THIS. WITH LIGHT ECHO
RETURNS...THIS HAS LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.
BETTER LIFT COMING INTO PLAY BY LATE MORNING AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH 60-65 KT LLJ. SEEING THIS
BETTER FORCING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS ACRS
INDIANA. CURRENTLY IN LULL BUT HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALLOWED THE SRN TIER OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. SOME SFC ROAD/WALKWAY TEMPS
WILL LAG. THEREFORE...HAVE AN SPS THRU NOON ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.
HAVE KEPT NRN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THRU 1 PM WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM THE
EAST TO THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR
THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTER. DUE
TO THIS REASON HELD OFF ON A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA. DID GO AHEAD
AND EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SOUTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE EVEN LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. CHANGED A TIER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SINCE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. KEPT A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET
MIXING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL NOT
GET ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES
HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT CHANGE
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD
WATCH.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION A MIX OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NW OF DAYTON WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THEY DO RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. DURING THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW
HOWEVER A WINTRY MIX WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS FURTHER NW OF INTERSTATE 71. EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO COVER ALL BUT FRANKLIN INDIANA AND BUTLER COUNTY
OHIO OF THE 4 INCH SNOW CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE NW EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE
COUNTIES OUT AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WATCH
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE REST OF THE WATCH WITH AROUND 6
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. ALTHOUGH SOME
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AGAIN...DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW WARM IT WILL
GET ON FRIDAY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT BUT
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND A STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL BE IN PLAY.
WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THE MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL
STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S
READINGS...30S AND 40S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AVERAGING A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH KDAY ALREADY REPORTING FZDZ. EXPECT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT
THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT
QUICKLY REDEVELOPS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/ NAM AND RAP
SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CIGS FALLING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS AM A LITTLE
HESITANT WITH THIS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO AGAIN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ026-034-035-043>046-056.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
904 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH INTIAL FOCUS ON THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEN SWITCHING TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT
AND HEAVY SNOW WED/THU.
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO AN AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN ACRS ILN/S
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS AND RADAR INDICATED
A MIX WITH SLEET AT TIME ACRS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BAND IS SHIFTING
N WITH BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN EXITING ILN/S FA.
12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS WARM BULGE ALOFT OF 6 DEG C AROUND 78O MB BUT
RATHER DRY AIR BELOW THIS. WITH LIGHT ECHO RETURNS...THIS HAS
LIMITED ANY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
BETTER LIFT COMES INTO PLAY BY LATE MORNING AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOICATED WITH 60-65 KT LLJ. SEEING THIS
BETTER FORCING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS ACRS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN INDIANA. HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND OF
DIMINISHING POPS WITH AN INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING.
HAVE KEPT CURRENT FREEZING RAIN HEADLINES IN PLACE WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID/UPR 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S
FAR SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACRS THE NE
WITH EASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN A SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS REGARDING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE
HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR
THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTER. DUE
TO THIS REASON HELD OFF ON A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA. DID GO AHEAD
AND EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SOUTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SINCE EVEN LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS CAN CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. CHANGED A TIER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SINCE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. KEPT A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET
MIXING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD AND FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL NOT
GET ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES
HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT CHANGE
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD
WATCH.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION A MIX OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NW OF DAYTON WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THEY DO RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. DURING THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW
HOWEVER A WINTRY MIX WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SE OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS FURTHER NW OF INTERSTATE 71. EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO COVER ALL BUT FRANKLIN INDIANA AND BUTLER COUNTY
OHIO OF THE 4 INCH SNOW CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE NW EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THOSE
COUNTIES OUT AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WATCH
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE REST OF THE WATCH WITH AROUND 6
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. ALTHOUGH SOME
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AGAIN...DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW WARM IT WILL
GET ON FRIDAY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT BUT
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND A STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL BE IN PLAY.
WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THE MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL
STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S
READINGS...30S AND 40S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AVERAGING A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH KDAY ALREADY REPORTING FZDZ. EXPECT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT
THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT
QUICKLY REDEVELOPS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/ NAM AND RAP
SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CIGS FALLING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS AM A LITTLE
HESITANT WITH THIS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO AGAIN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ042-051>055-060>065-070>074-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ026-034-035-043>046-056.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ091>093.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ075-080.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ075.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
553 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING
OUT OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE
AS IS FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.
STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...AT HTS/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL BE SHORT.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007>009-017.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ083>087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
425 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.
STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007>009-017.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ083>087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.
STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ007>009-017.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ083>087.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
100 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE BEING LIFTED UP AND OVER RETREATING COLD AIR WILL BRING
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM. LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW
MAY CAUSE FLOODING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS
THAT TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE
FALLEN RAPIDLY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO ADJUSTED THEIR
LOWS DOWN...BUT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SECOND AND MORE MINOR CHANGE HAS TO DO WITH POPS. LATEST NAM
IS SLOWER IN BRINGING IN PCPN TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND THE
HRRR LIFT A LIGHT BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z
THEN PRETTY MUCH LEAVE THE REST OF THE FA DRY THRU 15Z. BACKED OFF
ON THE BEGINNING OF THE POPS BY AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT DIDNT GO AS
DRASTIC AS THE RAP/HRRR WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT TOO MANY TIMES DO WE ISSUE BACK TO BACK TO BACK ADVISORY/WATCH
PRODUCTS BUT THE PATTERN NECESSITATES IT TO RAISE AWARENESS FOR
MULTIPLE THREATS BEGINNING TUES A.M. AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
FIRST OFF...THE TUESDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL.
THIS IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. VERY CLEAR PER
02.12Z GUIDANCE THAT VERY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/TRANSPORT WILL GET
GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SREF 850MB
TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES OF 5+ SIGMA ABOVE CLIMO AS LOW LEVEL JET
RAMPS UP DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROUGH SLIPPING THRU
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AMBIENT AIRMASS /ESP BELOW 500 MB/
IS EXTREMELY DRY PER 02.12Z KILN SOUNDING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MON NIGHT. MODEL QPFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LIGHTER/DRIER IN
THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WHICH IS WORRISOME...BUT HAVE ALSO
SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN WHERE STRONG WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNALS USE MOISTURE EFFICIENTLY TO
WRING OUT LIGHT QPF OVER RETREATING ARCTIC DOMES. THUS...AM
RUNNING WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN MDLS ON TUES MORNING IN
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE VERY STRONG TRANSPORT SIGNAL AND
RETREATING ARCTIC DOME. NOT ONLY IS THERE THAT ASPECT...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL BE RACING NORTH ON DEVELOPING SSELY
FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST IS BEST CURRENT ESTIMATION OF OVERLAP
BETWEEN ADVANCING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING...AND TIMING OF THE TWO...WHICH SPELLS A TWO TO FIVE HOUR
PERIOD /LEAST IN THE SOUTH AND MORE IN THE NORTH/ OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. GIVEN VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT OR CHANCE TO
MIX WITH SLEET ACROSS SERN IND/SWRN OH/CNTL OH...HAVE OPTED FOR
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HERE FOR LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS THAT MAY CAUSE
TRAVEL ISSUES. FURTHER NORTH...DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE LONGER DURATION MAY ALLOW FOR MORE FZRA/SLEET COMBO SO
WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE. TOO MUCH RISK TO LET THIS SITUATION GO
WITHOUT AN ADVISORY AS MAGNITUDE OF WARMING/MOISTENING ALOFT MAY
ALLOW FOR A MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER COVERAGE THAN MODELS
ARE SHOWING. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 02.12Z NAM/ECMWF /MEAGER ON
QPF AND COVERAGE/ TO 02.12Z SREF /HIGH PROBABILITIES OF NOT ONLY
MEASURABLE FZRA BUT SOME HINTS OF UP TO 0.10"/ SPURRED THE
DECISION TO MOVE TO ADVISORY ON THIS ISSUANCE.
NEXT UP...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY LONG ADVERTISED PER ANALOGS AND
ANOMALIES...AND NOW IT/S TIME TO SWITCH HIGHER RES DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED LONG FEED
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL
ZONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BIG PUSH OF VERY
ANOMALOUS/DEEP MOISTURE...WITH PWAT RUNNING 300% NORMAL AND 3
SIGMA ABOVE CLIMO ON TUESDAY NIGHT. 70+KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
BACKSIDE OF SERN CONUS RIDGING SHOULD FOCUS/FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND IT SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN IS
SHIFTING A TAD SOUTH W/TIME OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOOTPRINT /VIA LONG DURATION TRAIN OF
MODERATE/SOMETIMES HEAVY RAIN/ TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF I-71
WHICH IS WHERE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN PLACED. PLENTY OF SNOW/FROZEN
SOILS TO CONTEND WITH SO STRAIGHTFORWARD TO GET FLOOD WATCH OUT
TODAY. AMTS FROM 1-2" - AND WHILE CONVECTION ISN/T GOING TO PLAY A
HUGE ROLE - CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS VIA MODEST DESTABILIZATION ABOVE
THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA IN NORTHERN KY/SCNTL OH.
COULD SEE BRUSH CREEK BASIN...LOWER SCIOTO...AND KENTUCKY/LICKING
RIVERS IN KY REALLY RESPOND TO THIS...AS 0.5" TO 1.00" SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT TIED UP IN THE SNOW PACK IS RELEASED RATHER QUICKLY
WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 50F IN THE SOUTH. AM A LITTLE MORE THAN
CONCERNED FOR NRN KY/FAR SCNTL OHIO SO HOPING FOR A SLOW RELEASE
FROM THE SNOW PACK AND RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FINALLY...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. LOW CONFIDENCE HERE BUT A SIGNAL
I COULD NOT IGNORE. 02.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE SOMEWHAT
ON COLD AIR OOZING INTO THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN REGION
THAT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KY/SRN OH. 02.12Z GFS AND ITS
PRIOR RUNS SEEMED WAY TOO COLD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THROWN
OUT. MUCH MORE CONSISTENCY FROM NAM/ECMWF AND THAT IS WHERE
FORECAST IS BASED. A LONG DURATION RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET/FGEN FORCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WED AFTN/NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR OVERTAKES IT. THERE/S A
SCENARIO /ONE OF SEVERAL/ WHERE 12-18 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW
OCCURS FROM NRN KY INTO SRN OHIO...AND SOME SOLUTIONS ARE EXTREME
IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANECDOTALLY...HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE
PATTERN AND FORCING SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL HIGHER-END SNOW
ACCUMULATION. BUT USING CLIMO AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOWER
TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND MARCH INSOLATION /EVEN THRU CLOUDS/ THAT
WILL KEEP ANYTHING BUT HEAVY SNOW RATES FROM ACCUMULATING TOO
MUCH. IT/S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT HAS MY ATTENTION AS A POSSIBILITY
OF REALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW UNDER CLOAK OF DARKNESS WITH CONTINUED
BANDING/FGEN FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET THAT
MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM WED AFTN INTO THURS MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREAS BACK FROM CVG TO ILN TO SOUTH OF CMH FOR
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WATCH IF SOME OF THE MORE DIRE /QUICKER
CHANGEOVER/ SITUATIONS GET MORE SUPPORT IN THE ENSEMBLES. HAVE
TAKEN A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO SNOWFALL FORECAST IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND CURRENTLY INDICATING 4-7" WHICH NECESSITATES A
WATCH CENTERED ON WED NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH NEED TO WATCH THAT THIS
MAY GET EXPANDED IN TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY. THEY ARE 24...22...AND 20 AT CVG...DAY...AND CMH
RESPECTIVELY. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING 21...17...AND 19 AT
CVG...DAY...AND CMH RESPECTIVELY. WHO HAS FRESH SNOW COVER...AND THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY A ROLE ON HOW WARM IT GETS
DESPITE AN INCREASING SUN ANGLE FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO IN MOST SPOTS.
AGAIN...KNOWING HOW COLD IT WILL GET ATTM IS DIFFICULT WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON SNOW COVER AND HOW DEEP THAT SNOW COVER IS FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE ATTM...BUT
GETTING LOWER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WILL
FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE. RECORD LOWS OF
2...0 AND 2 AT CVG...DAY AND CMH WILL ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY.
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. AGAIN...DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON
FRIDAY AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT BUT LINGERING
SNOW COVER AND A STRONG MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL BE IN PLAY. WILL RANGE
HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THE MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL
STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. FRONT ON MONDAY MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S
READINGS...30S AND 40S...BUT FOR THE MOST PART AVERAGING A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER A BAND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT THIS TO BE FREEZING RAIN WITH LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE BAND TO MOVE THROUGH
ANY ONE SPOT WITHIN THREE HOURS. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
ANY THING ELSE DEVELOPS. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR
AS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND/AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF DROPS TO IFR PARTICULARLY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER OUT IN
TIME. PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CINCINNATI SITES AS WELL
AS KILN. WHERE THIS OCCURS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-070>072-074-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-056.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ081-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ089>100.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ058-059-066-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
INZ075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
523 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...ISSUED AN EARLY FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO PLACE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW. NORTHEAST OREGON CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WALLOWA COUNTY. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS 060-080 MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND
KBDN OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES FOR OTHER SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME
NORTH WINDS 10-20 KNOTS AT KPSC OVERNIGHT DECREASING LATE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TAIL END OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. DOPPLER RADAR AT SPOKANE IS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF WEAK
RETURNS (LESS THAN 20 DBZ). LATEST HRRR KEEP REFLECTIVITIES THIS LOW
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN A
TENTH OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS WHERE A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING 3-6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WALLOWA VALLEY...IMNAHA
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU OF WALLOWA COUNTY WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE 20:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE BREEZY TONIGHT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BEAT THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY--ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. WISTER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO
THE 60S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WNW SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH THAT WILL USHER SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z EXCEPT AFTER 06Z ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THAT INCLUDES TAF SITES KPDT AND
KALW. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 23 43 19 50 / 20 0 0 0
ALW 27 44 24 53 / 20 0 0 0
PSC 23 48 18 52 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 25 46 21 51 / 20 0 0 0
HRI 22 47 18 53 / 20 0 0 0
ELN 23 48 19 51 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 16 45 12 52 / 20 0 0 0
LGD 22 40 13 47 / 20 10 0 0
GCD 20 41 15 50 / 20 10 0 0
DLS 28 52 24 57 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
91/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
924 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...ISSUED AN EARLY FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO PLACE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW. NORTHEAST OREGON CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WALLOWA COUNTY. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS 060-080 MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND
KBDN OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES FOR OTHER SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME
NORTH WINDS 10-20 KNOTS AT KPSC OVERNIGHT DECREASING LATE OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TAIL END OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. DOPPLER RADAR AT SPOKANE IS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF WEAK
RETURNS (LESS THAN 20 DBZ). LATEST HRRR KEEP REFLECTIVITIES THIS LOW
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN A
TENTH OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS WHERE A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING 3-6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WALLOWA VALLEY...IMNAHA
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU OF WALLOWA COUNTY WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE 20:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE BREEZY TONIGHT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BEAT THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY--ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. WISTER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO
THE 60S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WNW SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH THAT WILL USHER SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z EXCEPT AFTER 06Z ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THAT INCLUDES TAF SITES KPDT AND
KALW. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 23 43 19 50 / 20 0 0 0
ALW 27 44 24 53 / 20 0 0 0
PSC 23 48 18 52 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 25 46 21 51 / 20 0 0 0
HRI 22 47 18 53 / 20 0 0 0
ELN 23 48 19 51 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 16 45 12 52 / 20 0 0 0
LGD 22 40 13 47 / 20 10 0 0
GCD 20 41 15 50 / 20 10 0 0
DLS 28 52 24 57 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
91/91/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
959 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR/SATL DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OF ANOMALOUS PWATS EXTENDING FROM THE S PACIFIC OCEAN NEWRD INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY PA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS
OVERRUNNING AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...CREATING
A BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN PA. AS OF
02Z...PTYPE IS LGT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KFIG/KUNV SOUTH THRU KJST IS NOW REPORTING
SNOW. AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF PA OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
WILL EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON NW FLOW.
ALL LATEST MDL DATA POINTING TOWARD A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AMTS
NR 6 ALONG THE MD BORDER. 18Z MDL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT BOTH INDICATE THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY UNTIL ARND 06Z. THUS...HAVE WILL
LOWER AMTS THERE.
TEMPERATURES AT 02Z RUNNING FROM THE U20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO
THE U30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND
LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP READINGS TO THE TEENS AND 20S BY
DAWN.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
21Z SREF AND 18Z GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES
AS HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE RECENT
00Z AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER AMTS THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BLEND OF LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE AM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND MAY LAST UNTIL LATE AFTN ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE EARLY OVR THE NW COUNTIES...RESULTING IN DRY/COLD WX THE
ENTIRE DAY UP THERE.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES LATE
IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID LVL CLOUD
DECK WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OVERCAST SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BLUNT ANY DIURNAL WARMING AND RESULT IN
STEADY TEMPS THRU EARLY AFTN...THEN FALLING TEMPS LATE.
CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORTS DAYTIME TEMPS FROM ONLY ARND 10F ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE L20S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ANOTHER
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW 0F AND THE
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WORST CONDS ATTM OVER LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE DENSE FOG IS
CAUSING VLIFR VSBYS AT KLNS. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT UNTIL STRONGER NW WINDS HELP TO MIX UP THE AMS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ017>019-049-051-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024>028-
034-035-050-052-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ033-036-
064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
911 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR/SATL DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OF ANOMALOUS PWATS EXTENDING FROM THE S PACIFIC OCEAN NEWRD INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY PA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS
OVERRUNNING AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...CREATING
A BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN PA. AS OF
23Z...PTYPE IS LGT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KFIG SOUTH THRU KJST IS NOW REPORTING SNOW. AS
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF PA OVERNIGHT...PRECIP WILL
EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW
FLOW.
ALL LATEST MDL DATA POINTING TOWARD A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 18Z MDL SOUNDINGS AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT BOTH INDICATE THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY UNTIL ARND 06Z.
THUS...HAVE WILL LOWER AMTS THERE.
TEMPERATURES AT 23Z RUNNING FROM ARND 30F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO
AROUND 40F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF PRECIP
AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP READINGS TO THE TEENS AND 20S
BY DAWN.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
15Z SREF AND 12Z GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES
AS HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE RECENT
18Z AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES LOWER AMTS THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW 0F AND THE
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WORST CONDS ATTM OVER LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE DENSE FOG IS
CAUSING VLIFR VSBYS AT KLNS. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT UNTIL STRONGER NW WINDS HELP TO MIX UP THE AMS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ017>019-049-051-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024>028-
034>036-050-052-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ033-
064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR/SATL DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OF ANOMALOUS PWATS EXTENDING FROM THE S PACIFIC OCEAN NEWRD INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY PA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS
OVERRUNNING AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...CREATING
A BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN PA. AS OF
23Z...PTYPE IS LGT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KFIG SOUTH THRU KJST IS NOW REPORTING SNOW. AS
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF PA OVERNIGHT...PRECIP WILL
EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW
FLOW.
ALL LATEST MDL DATA POINTING TOWARD A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 18Z MDL SOUNDINGS AND
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT BOTH INDICATE THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY UNTIL ARND 06Z.
THUS...HAVE WILL LOWER AMTS THERE.
TEMPERATURES AT 23Z RUNNING FROM ARND 30F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO
AROUND 40F IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF PRECIP
AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP READINGS TO THE TEENS AND 20S
BY DAWN.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
15Z SREF AND 12Z GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES
AS HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE RECENT
18Z AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES LOWER AMTS THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW 0F AND THE
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRYER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ017>019-
024>028-049>053-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ033>036-
056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY TURN TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...AND STEADY SNOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION TRANSITION IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH
INITIAL BURST OF SNOW HAVING PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY. SNOW AND SLEET WILL HAVE CHANGED OVER TO PRIMARILY
FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY EVENING. HRRR HAS VACILLATED CONSIDERABLY
FROM HOUR TO HOUR...BOTH WITH QPF AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AND
THUS AM BASING THE ICE FORECAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM CHANGES ON SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND IN PARTICULAR SREF
THREATS WHICH CONSECUTIVELY HAVE INDICATED 80% OR GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN .25"+ OF ICE ACCRETION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (PAST MIDNIGHT) OF WEDNESDAY. WILL
UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS (THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW/SLEET
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGEOVER) FOR ICE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHERE GREATER THAN 0.25" OF ICE IS EXPECTED. FARTHER
WEST...A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN AND ELK
COUNTIES...HOLDING DOWN AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDERS OF THOSE
COUNTIES. THE WARNING AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DOING SO
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WAS LOW GIVEN CONFLICTING HRRR LLVL
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND QPF DISTRIBUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA IS SEEING A SEVERAL
HOUR LULL IN PRECIP AT MID AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A DRY SLOT
WHICH FOLLOWED THE INITIAL WAA BURST. PRECIP FILLING IN BEHIND IS
FZRA OVER THE LAURELS AND HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
A FEW REPORTS STILL OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXED IN.
NEAR TERM DETAILS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. EVE SHIFT WILL CONT
TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF QPF AND ADJUST ICE AMOUNTS AS NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF THE
STATE. BY LATE TONIGHT...WARM AIR WILL BE FLOODING THE SOUTH AND
CHANGING FZRA OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. THE NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW AND INITIALLY QUITE COLD AIR...SO EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.20-0.30 OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PA WHERE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS SUPPORTING A BROAD STRIPE OF PCPN
ALONG A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF PHASING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE DSW/ROCKIES ON WED AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VLY AND MID ATLC ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS AND SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY THURS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INTO A
DEEPENING COLD SECTOR ALONG/NORTH OF THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PA WED NGT INTO THURS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH IS LKLY TIED TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THAT SAID...THE
CONSENSUS FCST AXIS OF MAX QPF /0.50 INCH OR GREATER/ HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAINTED OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...USED A MULTI MODEL BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION
FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF AMTS WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE
IN A STATE OF TRANSITION AND COOLING DOWN FROM NW TO SE WED-WED
NGT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. A PERIOD OF SLEET
MAY IMPACT FCST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE DURATION A KEY FACTOR
IN THIS FCST. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND GREATEST RISK IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW/6+ INCHES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ROBUST
WPC ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA AS OF LATE
AFT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WARMER AIR SURGING IN ON INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SNOW/SLEET WILL
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINTAINING
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LLWS WILL ALSO BE
PREVALENT AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATE WED/EARLY THURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NASTY
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BUT SOME REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE /ESP SOUTH/ IN RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY.
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-
010-017-019-024>028-033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ005-006-
011-012-018-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY TURN TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...AND STEADY SNOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION TRANSITION IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH
INITIAL BURST OF SNOW HAVING PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY. SNOW AND SLEET WILL HAVE CHANGED OVER TO PRIMARILY
FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY EVENING. HRRR HAS VACILLATED CONSIDERABLY
FROM HOUR TO HOUR...BOTH WITH QPF AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AND
THUS AM BASING THE ICE FORECAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM CHANGES ON SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND IN PARTICULAR SREF
THREATS WHICH CONSECUTIVELY HAVE INDICATED 80% OR GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN .25"+ OF ICE ACCRETION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (PAST MIDNIGHT) OF WEDNESDAY. WILL
UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS (THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW/SLEET
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGEOVER) FOR ICE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHERE GREATER THAN 0.25" OF ICE IS EXPECTED. FARTHER
WEST...A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER WARREN AND ELK
COUNTIES...HOLDING DOWN AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDERS OF THOSE
COUNTIES. THE WARNING AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DOING SO
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WAS LOW GIVEN CONFLICTING HRRR LLVL
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND QPF DISTRIBUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA IS SEEING A SEVERAL
HOUR LULL IN PRECIP AT MID AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A DRY SLOT
WHICH FOLLOWED THE INITIAL WAA BURST. PRECIP FILLING IN BEHIND IS
FZRA OVER THE LAURELS AND HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
A FEW REPORTS STILL OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXED IN.
NEAR TERM DETAILS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. EVE SHIFT WILL CONT
TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF QPF AND ADJUST ICE AMOUNTS AS NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF THE
STATE. BY LATE TONIGHT...WARM AIR WILL BE FLOODING THE SOUTH AND
CHANGING FZRA OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. THE NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW AND INITIALLY QUITE COLD AIR...SO EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.20-0.30 OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PA WHERE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS SUPPORTING A BROAD STRIPE OF PCPN
ALONG A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF PHASING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE DSW/ROCKIES ON WED AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VLY AND MID ATLC ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS AND SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY THURS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INTO A
DEEPENING COLD SECTOR ALONG/NORTH OF THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PA WED NGT INTO THURS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH IS LKLY TIED TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THAT SAID...THE
CONSENSUS FCST AXIS OF MAX QPF /0.50 INCH OR GREATER/ HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAINTED OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...USED A MULTI MODEL BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION
FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF AMTS WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE
IN A STATE OF TRANSITION AND COOLING DOWN FROM NW TO SE WED-WED
NGT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. A PERIOD OF SLEET
MAY IMPACT FCST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE DURATION A KEY FACTOR
IN THIS FCST. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND GREATEST RISK IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW/6+ INCHES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ROBUST
WPC ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMER AIR SURGING IN ON INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SNOW/SLEET WILL
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINTAINING
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LLWS WILL ALSO BE
PREVALENT AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATE WED/EARLY THURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NASTY
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BUT SOME REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE /ESP SOUTH/ IN RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY.
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-
010-017-019-024>028-033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ005-006-
011-012-018-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY TURN TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...AND STEADY SNOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION TRANSITION IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH
INITIAL BURST OF SNOW HAVING PUSHED INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY. SNOW AND SLEET WILL HAVE CHANGED OVER TO PRIMARILY
FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY EVENING. HRRR HAS VASCILLATED CONSIDERABLY
FROM HOUR TO HOUR...BOTH WITH QPF AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AND
THUS AM BASING THE ICE FORECAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEAR- TO
SHORT- TERM CHANGES ON SHORT RANGE ENSEMBES AND IN PARTICULAR SREF
THREATS WHICH CONSECUTIVELY HAVE INDICATED 80% OR GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN .25"+ OF ICE ACCRETION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (PAST MIDNIGHT) OF WEDNESDAY.
WILL UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS (THERE IS STILL SOME
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGEOVER) FOR ICE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE GREATER THAN 0.25" OF ICE IS
EXPECTED. FARTHER WEST...A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
WARREN AND ELK COUNTIES...HOLDING DOWN AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDERS OF THOSE COUNTIES. THE WARNING AREA MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DOING SO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WAS LOW GIVEN
CONFLICTING HRRR LLVL TEMPERATURE READINGS AND QPF DISTRIBUTION
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA IS SEEING A SEVERAL
HOUR LULL IN PRECIP AT MID AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A DRY SLOT
WHICH FOLLOWED THE INITIAL WAA BURST. PRECIP FILLING IN BEHIND IS
FZRA OVER THE LAURELS AND HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
A FEW REPORTS STILL OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXED IN.
NEAR TERM DETAILS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. EVE SHIFT WILL CONT
TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF QPF AND ADJUST ICE AMOUNTS AS NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF THE
STATE. BY LATE TONIGHT...WARM AIR WILL BE FLOODING THE SOUTH AND
CHANGING FZRA OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. THE NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW AND INITIALLY QUITE COLD AIR...SO EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.20-0.30 OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF PA WHERE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PATTERN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA THROUGH
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LIMITING
TEMPERATURE MODERATIONS TO NO BETTER THAN CLIMATE NORMALS.
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PCPN ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN BTWN A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND
ABOVE NORMAL RIDGING FROM THE GOMEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG A SW-NE
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE
COAST WED-THUR AS NRN STREAM ENERGY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF BUT THE CONSENSUS POINTS
TOWARD THE SRN PA FOR THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS. USED A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF
AMTS WHICH CONSERVATIVELY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE IN A STATE OF
TRANSITION AND COOLING FROM NW TO SE WED-WED NGT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MSTR AVAILABLE/STRIPE
OF ABOVE NORMAL PW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT DAY 3-4 RANGE IN THE FRONTAL
WAVES AND THERMAL PROFILES IN A STATE OF FLUX GOING FROM WARM TO
COLD...CONFIDENCE IN BIG AMOUNTS IS QUESTIONABLE. FOR NOW THE DAY
3+4 NUMBERS RANGE FROM 0-2" NORTH OF I-80...2-4" FROM I80 TO THE
PA TURNPIKE/I-81 AND AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4" POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF
THE TURNPIKE/I-81. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS ANY SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE QPF AXIS IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT. THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS
THAT WINTER WX WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- OF FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING UNTIL NEXT WINTER. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMER AIR SURGING IN ON INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED
WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESADY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SNOW/SLEET WILL
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINTAINING
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LLWS WILL ALSO BE
PREVALENT AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATE WED/EARLY THURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NASTY
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BUT SOME REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE /ESP SOUTH/ IN RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY.
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-
010-017-019-024>028-033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ005-006-
011-012-018-037-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1148 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP AN OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND STEADY SNOW WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MIDDAY...PRIMARY BURST OF WARM ADVECTION IS
MAINTAINING/PROPOGATING A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...WITH A LARGE
DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND SOUTHWEST PA FILLING IN WITH MORE
SHOWERY ELEMENTS. TEMPERATURES OVER SOMERSET COUNTY RANG FROM THE
LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT.
SUBSEQUENT PRECIP SHOULD BE MIX TO FZRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A SEVERAL
HOUR LULL IN PRECIP EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY
SLOT...AFTER THE INITIAL WAA BAND CROSSES. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA...TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN
WILL TAKE PLACE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM DETAILS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT STILL CONCERNED
THAT WE`LL EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ICE LATER TONIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSATE 80. ADJUSTED ICE AMOUNTS UPWARD BY SEVERAL HUNDRETHS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WHICH KEEPS AMOUNTS WITHIN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. 06Z SREF THREATS BACKED OFF ON EARLIER ROBUST AMOUNTS
AND PERCENTAGES...BUT PREVIOUS THREATS HAD INDICATED 70-80%
CONFIDENCE IN .20-.30" OR MORE OF ICE. SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS
CONTINUE TO DELAY WARMING AT THE END OF ITS 15-HOUR
WINDOW...MEANING THAT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY NEVER
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CRITICAL TIMEFRAME WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND
04Z...AND THINK IT WILL BE A WHITES OF THEIR EYES DECISION FOR THE
EVENING SHFIT BASED ON RADAR EVOLUTION AND ADJUSTMENTS OF HRW-ARW
AND HRRR CONSENSUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF THE STATE /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS
THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/...PRECEDED BY THE COATING TO 1 INCH
OF SNOW FAR SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN MOST AREAS (WITH UP
TO 3 INCHES NORTH).
THE NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE SHALLOW AND INITIALLY
BITTERLY COLD AIR...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST
THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD
BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF
PA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUM...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PATTERN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA THROUGH
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LIMITING
TEMPERATURE MODERATIONS TO NO BETTER THAN CLIMATE NORMALS.
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PCPN ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN BTWN A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND
ABOVE NORMAL RIDGING FROM THE GOMEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG A SW-NE
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE
COAST WED-THUR AS NRN STREAM ENERGY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF BUT THE CONSENSUS POINTS
TOWARD THE SRN PA FOR THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS. USED A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF
AMTS WHICH CONSERVATIVELY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE IN A STATE OF
TRANSITION AND COOLING FROM NW TO SE WED-WED NGT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MSTR AVAILABLE/STRIPE
OF ABOVE NORMAL PW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT DAY 3-4 RANGE IN THE FRONTAL
WAVES AND THERMAL PROFILES IN A STATE OF FLUX GOING FROM WARM TO
COLD...CONFIDENCE IN BIG AMOUNTS IS QUESTIONABLE. FOR NOW THE DAY
3+4 NUMBERS RANGE FROM 0-2" NORTH OF I-80...2-4" FROM I80 TO THE
PA TURNPIKE/I-81 AND AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4" POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF
THE TURNPIKE/I-81. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS ANY SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE QPF AXIS IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT. THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS
THAT WINTER WX WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- OF FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING UNTIL NEXT WINTER. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MODERATE
SNOW BANDS CROSS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WARMER AIR SURGING IN
ON INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX/FREEZING RAIN EVENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /FZRA NORTH/ LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED AS HEAVIER PRECIP GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF. WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATE WED/EARLY THURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NASTY
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BUT SOME REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE /ESP SOUTH/ IN RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY.
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-
005-010-017-024>026-033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1057 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP AN OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND STEADY SNOW WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA...FIRST BANDS OF PRECIP (SNOW) HAVE
ARRIVED ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. SOME QUICK MODERATE RATES HAVE BEEN
NOTED AROUND ERIE AND BAND IS INTENSIFYING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD.
A QUICK 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE IN SPOTS BEFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSE SNOW BAND MOVES EAST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUT CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA WILL
LIKELY THEN SEE A SEVERAL HOUR LULL IN PRECIP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NORTH TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND THEN
FREEZING RAIN.
NEAR TERM DETAILS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT CONCERNED THAT
WE`LL EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ICE LATER TONIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSATE 80. SREF THREATS PAGE INDICATE 70-80% CONFIDENCE IN
.20-.30" OR MORE OF ICE AND SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO DELAY
WARMING AT THE END OF ITS 15-HOUR WINDOW...MEANING THAT MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY NEVER RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CRITICAL
TIMEFRAME WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z...AND MAY BE A WHITES OF
THEIR EYES DECISION BASED ON RADAR EVOLUTION AND ADJUSTMENTS OF
HRW-ARW AND HRRR CONSENSUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF THE STATE /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS
THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/...PRECEDED BY THE COATING TO 1 INCH
OF SNOW FAR SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN MOST AREAS (WITH UP
TO 3 INCHES NORTH).
THE NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE SHALLOW AND INITIALLY
BITTERLY COLD AIR...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST
THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD
BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF
PA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUM...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN...GENERALLY FROM MIDDAY TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PATTERN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA THROUGH
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LIMITING
TEMPERATURE MODERATIONS TO NO BETTER THAN CLIMATE NORMALS.
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PCPN ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN BTWN A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND
ABOVE NORMAL RIDGING FROM THE GOMEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG A SW-NE
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE
COAST WED-THUR AS NRN STREAM ENERGY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF BUT THE CONSENSUS POINTS
TOWARD THE SRN PA FOR THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS. USED A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF
AMTS WHICH CONSERVATIVELY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE IN A STATE OF
TRANSITION AND COOLING FROM NW TO SE WED-WED NGT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MSTR AVAILABLE/STRIPE
OF ABOVE NORMAL PW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT DAY 3-4 RANGE IN THE FRONTAL
WAVES AND THERMAL PROFILES IN A STATE OF FLUX GOING FROM WARM TO
COLD...CONFIDENCE IN BIG AMOUNTS IS QUESTIONABLE. FOR NOW THE DAY
3+4 NUMBERS RANGE FROM 0-2" NORTH OF I-80...2-4" FROM I80 TO THE
PA TURNPIKE/I-81 AND AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4" POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF
THE TURNPIKE/I-81. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS ANY SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE QPF AXIS IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT. THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS
THAT WINTER WX WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- OF FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING UNTIL NEXT WINTER. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MODERATE
SNOW BANDS CROSS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WARMER AIR SURGING IN
ON INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX/FREEZING RAIN EVENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /FZRA NORTH/ LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED AS HEAVIER PRECIP GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF. WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATE WED/EARLY THURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NASTY
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BUT SOME REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE /ESP SOUTH/ IN RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY.
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-
005-010-017-024>026-033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE THE POCONO MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY
WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP AN OVER THE
COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND STEADY SNOW WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE /1030 MB/ WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CIRRUS SHIELD HAS
OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE CWA AND THICKENED-UP SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS.
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF 10-20 DBZ RETURNS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.HOWEVER...SFC
OBS CONFIRM NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SLEET
PELLETS REACHING THE GROUND ALL THE WAY BACK THROUGH OHIO AND WVA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /PER LATEST RAP AND HRRR/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 50-60 KT 850 JET /SREF/ TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE UP AND OVER THIS DOME OF LLVL COLD AIR.
ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES /UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS/ WERE MADE TO THE
POPS FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
OF THE STATE...AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F IN THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL EXPECT PRECIP ONSET FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 15Z/10AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC ARC OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM BAJA MONSOONAL FLOW
ADVECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ARRIVING INTO/BLOSSOMING
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES BY LATE THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
INITIALLY...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MY CWA THROUGH THE MIDDAY
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY MILD UPPER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BRING A QUICK MIX AND
EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR ALL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THERE MAY BE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. CONSENSUS BLEND OF 00Z-06Z OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENS GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR AN INITIAL FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF MIXED
PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN
THREAT THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF THE STATE /AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/...PRECEDED BY
THE COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FAR SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS (WITH UP TO 3 INCHES NORTH).
THE NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE SHALLOW AND INITIALLY
BITTERLY COLD AIR...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST
THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD
BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF
PA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUM...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN...GENERALLY FROM MIDDAY TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PATTERN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA THROUGH
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LIMITING
TEMPERATURE MODERATIONS TO NO BETTER THAN CLIMATE NORMALS.
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PCPN ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN BTWN A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND
ABOVE NORMAL RIDGING FROM THE GOMEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG A SW-NE
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE
COAST WED-THUR AS NRN STREAM ENERGY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF BUT THE CONSENSUS POINTS
TOWARD THE SRN PA FOR THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS. USED A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF
AMTS WHICH CONSERVATIVELY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE IN A STATE OF
TRANSITION AND COOLING FROM NW TO SE WED-WED NGT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MSTR AVAILABLE/STRIPE
OF ABOVE NORMAL PW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT DAY 3-4 RANGE IN THE FRONTAL
WAVES AND THERMAL PROFILES IN A STATE OF FLUX GOING FROM WARM TO
COLD...CONFIDENCE IN BIG AMOUNTS IS QUESTIONABLE. FOR NOW THE DAY
3+4 NUMBERS RANGE FROM 0-2" NORTH OF I-80...2-4" FROM I80 TO THE
PA TURNPIKE/I-81 AND AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4" POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF
THE TURNPIKE/I-81. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS ANY SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE QPF AXIS IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT. THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS
THAT WINTER WX WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- OF FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING UNTIL NEXT WINTER. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS AT 12Z WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CEDES TO AN APPROACHING
WINTER STORM SYSTEM. WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN
5 MPH.
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
QUICKLY SPREAD SNOW/SLEET INTO WESTERN SECTIONS BY NOON AND ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL PA BY MID AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR SURGING IN ON
INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX/FREEZING RAIN EVENT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /FZRA EAST/ LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED AS HEAVIER PRECIP GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF. WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATE WED/EARLY THURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NASTY
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BUT SOME REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE /ESP SOUTH/ IN RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY.
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-005-010-017-024>026-033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
608 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE THE POCONO MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY
WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP AN OVER THE
COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND STEADY SNOW WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE /1030 MB/ WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CIRRUS SHIELD HAS
OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE CWA AND THICKENED-UP SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS.
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF 10-20 DBZ RETURNS MOVING
QUICKLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.HOWEVER...SFC
OBS CONFIRM NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SLEET
PELLETS REACHING THE GROUND ALL THE WAY BACK THROUGH OHIO AND WVA.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /PER LATEST RAP AND HRRR/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 50-60 KT 850 JET /SREF/ TRANSPORTS A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE UP AND OVER THIS DOME OF LLVL COLD AIR.
ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES /UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS/ WERE MADE TO THE
POPS FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
OF THE STATE...AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F IN THE SOUTHEAST.
STILL EXPECT PRECIP ONSET FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 15Z/10AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC ARC OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM BAJA MONSOONAL FLOW
ADVECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ARRIVING INTO/BLOSSOMING
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES BY LATE THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
INITIALLY...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MY CWA THROUGH THE MIDDAY
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY MILD UPPER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BRING A QUICK MIX AND
EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR ALL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THERE MAY BE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. CONSENSUS BLEND OF 00Z-06Z OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENS GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS FOR AN INITIAL FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF MIXED
PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT PROLONGED ICE ACCRETION IS THE MAIN
THREAT THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF THE STATE /AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/...PRECEDED BY
THE COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FAR SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS (WITH UP TO 3 INCHES NORTH).
THE NORTH MAY NOT COMPLETELY MIX OUT THE SHALLOW AND INITIALLY
BITTERLY COLD AIR...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST
THERE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMS SHOULD
BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS OF
PA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUM...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN...GENERALLY FROM MIDDAY TODAY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PATTERN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PA THROUGH
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST...LIMITING
TEMPERATURE MODERATIONS TO NO BETTER THAN CLIMATE NORMALS.
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PCPN ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN BTWN A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND
ABOVE NORMAL RIDGING FROM THE GOMEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG A SW-NE
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE
COAST WED-THUR AS NRN STREAM ENERGY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF BUT THE CONSENSUS POINTS
TOWARD THE SRN PA FOR THE HIGHEST PCPN AMTS. USED A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF
AMTS WHICH CONSERVATIVELY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE IN A STATE OF
TRANSITION AND COOLING FROM NW TO SE WED-WED NGT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MSTR AVAILABLE/STRIPE
OF ABOVE NORMAL PW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT DAY 3-4 RANGE IN THE FRONTAL
WAVES AND THERMAL PROFILES IN A STATE OF FLUX GOING FROM WARM TO
COLD...CONFIDENCE IN BIG AMOUNTS IS QUESTIONABLE. FOR NOW THE DAY
3+4 NUMBERS RANGE FROM 0-2" NORTH OF I-80...2-4" FROM I80 TO THE
PA TURNPIKE/I-81 AND AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4" POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF
THE TURNPIKE/I-81. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS ANY SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE QPF AXIS IS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT. THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS
THAT WINTER WX WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- OF FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING UNTIL NEXT WINTER. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CEDES TO AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM. WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH.
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD SNOW/SLEET INTO WESTERN SECTIONS BY NOON AND ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA BY MID AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR SURGING IN ON INCREASING
SW FLOW WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN
EVENT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN /FZRA EAST/ LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATE WED/EARLY THURS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK TO THE SOUTH...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NASTY
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS BUT SOME REDUCTIONS WILL
CONTINUE /ESP SOUTH/ IN RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY.
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-005-010-017-024>026-033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-027-028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1023 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NAM MODEL AND LATEST RAP SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. THUS...THE WINTRY
WEATHER TIMING LOOKS GOOD...SO I UPDATED THE WSW PRODUCT.
MUCH OF THE RECENT HOUR OR TWO SPENT UPDATING THE FLOOD WATCH AND
ASSOCIATED RIVER FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...PLAN TO FRESHEN THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ANY AFFECTED
PRODUCTS BY 11 PM EST OR SO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 21 42 / 90 100 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 35 16 38 / 90 100 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 33 16 38 / 90 100 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 35 12 34 / 90 100 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON-WISE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SE TX AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE
COAST BY 11 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND CALDWELL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 37 DEGREES. LEANED TOWARD
THE RUC FOR HOURLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
REMOTELY CLOSE TO CURRENT OBS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT MODELS
ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH AND THAT COULD BE A REAL PROBLEM OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH SE TX AROUND 09Z AND WILL GENERATE A
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. HIGH POPS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE BUT BUMPED UP QPF TOWARD THE COAST AND RAISED POPS FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE PRECIP WILL BE A BIT
HEAVIER AND LAST A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...HAVE MORE
CONCERN THAT WINTER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AM HESITENT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT
RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP FREEZING LAYER
BETWEEN 500-3500 FEET WHICH APPEARS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP
TO SLEET. WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS VERY CLOSELY AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNINGS LOOK ON TARGET SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED. NEW ZONES OUT BY 945 PM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS AT 2330Z.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH KCXO BY 01Z...THE METRO HOUSTON
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...KLBX BY 04Z...AND KGLS BY 05Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSET BY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DETERIORATE...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS QUICKLY DEVELOPING.
GUSTS MAY REACH TO NEAR 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE
OVER OR MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING AT KCLL AND
KUTS BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z AND 15Z. CONDITIONS LOOKED TOO WARM FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...THE NAMBUFR WAS FORECASTING A RETURN TO VFR
FROM ABOUT KHOU AND KSGR NORTHWARD AFTER ABOUT 21Z.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS AT OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AT 3PM
THE TEMPERATURE IN COLLEGE STATION WAS 75 DEGREES WHILE IN HEARNE
THE TEMPERATURE WAS 57 DEGREES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
TIMING REMAINS ROUGHLY THE SAME WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE METRO AREA AROUND 7PM AND OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THINKING FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S THE GROUND WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES
ARE COOL ENOUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE PARTS OF HOUSTON AND
TRINITY COUNTIES BETWEEN 7-10 AM...ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT WITH PRECIPITATION CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING AND
THE I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY SO SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD REMAIN
COVERED INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIE ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 38
MARINE...
THE SEA FOG HAS RETURNED AND VTS AND PILOTS REPORTING SHUT OUT
CONDITIONS IN LOWER GALVESTON BAY AND ACROSS MATAGORDA BAY. THE
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...CLOSE TO 10
PM MATAGORDA AND 11 PM FOR GALVESTON. GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 25-35 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS 40-45
KNOTS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 15 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH VERY ROUGH
CONDITIONS ON THE BAYS. LOW WATER ADVISORY WITH VERY STRONG
CURRENTS SQUEEZING OUT THURSDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LESSEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BAYS AND NEARSHORE
FIRST. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 33 37 27 47 32 / 90 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 41 29 49 34 / 80 60 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 43 35 47 41 / 60 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...
GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1112 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR VSBY PROGS SHOW STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OVER ALL TAF SITES. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO BELOW 200 FEET AT ALL
TAF SITES AS WELL. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
AFTER 16Z WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY
AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
E-SE BY MORNING. S-SE WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTN AND SPEEDS
WILL PROBABLY GET A BIT GUSTY OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES DURING
THE AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REGION. SEA FOG AT THE COAST
ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE AND VISBY THERE FALLING. OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES 1/2 TO 2 MILES IS COMMON WHILE IN BETWEEN 5-9 MILES IS
MORE COMMON. AS WE COOL DOWN AND WINDS BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
AM EXPECTING VISBY TO DROP AND DENSE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND TOMORROW MORNING AND SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISBY SHOULD OCCUR...COASTAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
TRAJECTORIES AND DURATION OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. FOR NOW
THE ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 10 AM.
ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES UP NORTH AND INCREASE SKY COVER. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 43 72 61 63 30 / 20 30 30 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 76 64 70 34 / 20 20 20 50 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 72 61 66 37 / 20 20 20 30 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM EST TUESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICING PROBLEMS HAS ENDED...THUS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE COLDEST SURFACES. DRIVER SHOULD WATCH
FOR SLICK ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...
LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.
TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS AND
FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR AREA. TRIMMED BACK AND NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
SNOW AND SLEET.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.
THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY WEST OF I77 WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
SUCH...AND RADAR COVERAGE IS LIGHT. STILL CONCERN OVER DIABATIC
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THUS WILL HOLD
WITH REST OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MODIFIED POPS
WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHAPED MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH SFC OBS
AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN .
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...
LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.
TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...
CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.
THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
704 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...
LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.
TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...
CEILINGS WERE LOWERING ACROSS THE REGION...DOWN TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THEN RISE TONIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHEN THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ENDS...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH
TODAY. BUFKIT AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AT KLYH UNTIL
21Z/4PM. MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE SNOW AND SLEET.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.
THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
531 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...
LOWER CLOUDS WERE JUST FILLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE TIMING SHOWN ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND THE LATEST WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE VALID TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. APPEARS A MORE ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
8AM AND NOON. STILL EXPECTING A BETTER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES THAT WILL DEFINE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION IS...IT WILL BE LIGHT. BUFKIT NOT
SHOWING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND BY 15Z/10AM...WARM NOSE WILL BE
WELL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIQUID AS THE HYDROMETEORS FALL
THROUGH THAT LAYER. SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NEW RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WERE BELOW FREEZING. ONLY A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE KEPT THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM LYNCHBURG INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE DELAYED THE START
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.
TONIGHT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO START WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. STRONG MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON A 50KT TO 60KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.0-1.1 INCHES IN THE
WEST...AND AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES FURTHER EAST...ALL SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
DURING THE MORNING...RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. FURTHER
EAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE.
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AS A
STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE WAVE PASSES OUR AREA DURING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...DRAWING COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WENT WITH LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER STORM SNOW AND
SLEET AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER...AND PERHAPS BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN SPOTS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE COMING 03/12Z MODEL RUNS.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
MEAN ONE MORE SHOT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEDGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS TAKE PLACE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...
MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.
THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022-023-032>034-043-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ043-044-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1252 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...
1033 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO JACKSON MS. THIS STATIONARY
FROM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOSEST THING ON RADAR AT
THE MOMENT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BETWEEN ASHEVILLE NC
AND ATLANTA GA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CERTAINLY BE IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A WINTRY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNKWRF SUGGEST ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TUESDAY WITH THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TRACE ICE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE...BUT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH PRECIP PRODUCTION FOR TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE M8-M12 DEG C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY WITHIN THIS LAYER...ALL OF THE
SATURATION TAKING PLACE IN A LOWER LAYER BETWEEN +3 DEG C AND -3
DEG C. UNLESS THERE IS SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT DEVELOPS
INOF THE WARM FRONT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE PTYPE WILL
BE EITHER DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE TIME. THE CRITICAL WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...SO STILL SEE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY LIGHT ICING THAT
MAY OCCUR...KEEPING IN MIND THAT EVEN A VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE
ON AN UNTREATED SURFACE CAN POSE A TRAVEL/WALKING HAZARD.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. WARM AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL LIQUID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE CONCERNS. TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY REMNANTS OF EARLIER WEDGE WILL BE LONG GONE TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CONTINUING TO RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOW...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF...590+ DM AT
THAT...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PLUNGE INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AS
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT SLOWS ITS PUSH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS HOLDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN A BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY
00Z WED...THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN RESPONSE. THIS
WILL FURTHER DELAY THE PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO/THROUGH THE
CWA...BUT PERHAPS NOT THE SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR ONCE IT MANGES
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS. QUITE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED
BY THE MODELS AND WPC AS TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS FAR FROM A NORMAL SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR A SNOW
EVENT IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION...BUT HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLD AIR BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. AM INCLINED AT
THIS POINT TO THROW OUT RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIOS...NOT ONLY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OR SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE IN
THIS SITUATION...BUT THINKING IS THAT COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CHANGEOVER.
FURTHERMORE...GROUND TEMPS WILL NOT SUPPORT FZRA AT THE CHANGEOVER
TIME AS THE SOUNDING COLUMN COOLS ISOTHERMALLY. FINALLY...THIS IS
YET AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO ONCE IT ENTERS THE
REGION...COOLING WILL BE QUICK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WPC
WWD...IS 4-5 INCHES NORTH...2-4 INCHES CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...1-2
INCHES VA PIEDMONT...LITTLE TO NONE NC PIEDMONT.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLOOD
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. DID
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT HAVE REDUCED THE TIME PERIOD OF SUCH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
TEMPERATURE WISE...A LOT OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING MILD/ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE...A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOW SFC TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY MARCH AND THE
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -16C...AS COMPARED TO -26C A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO...I FIND THIS SOMEWHAT EXTREME. NONETHELESS...IT IS A
VERY COLD AIR MASS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD
MILDER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
GRADUALLY MORE SW-W...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING 850 TEMPS
TAKE PLACE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS
TAKE PLACE. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM EVENTUALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY OR NEXT WEEK...HOW THE SOLUTIONS COME TO BE THAT
WAY HAVE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
ESTABLISHING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY SUNDAY...AND ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EASILY BYPASS OUR REGION EXITING THE U.S. NEAR THE
GA/FL BORDER. THE ECWMF IS NOT A QUICK TO ESTABLISH AN EAST COAST
TROUGH...AND A SUCH...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A CONSENSUS OF THESE
TWO...WITH IT RESEMBLING A WATERED DOWN VERSION OF THE ECWMF IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO STAYING ON MORE OF THE MILD SIDE THAN COLD IN REGARDS TO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...
MVFR CIGS WILL START PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...MANY
AREAS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND MIST. THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTH A LINE FROM KBLF-KROA-KLYH DURING THE LATE
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
45 TO 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE REGION
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND WINTER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
RESPONSE TO UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW SUBSTANTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS WHERE THE LATEST AVAILABLE ESTIMATES FROM
THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOW ROUGHLY 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENBRIER. IN THE OTHER MAJOR RIVER
BASINS...NEW...ROANOKE/DAN AND TENNESSEE... MELTING OVER THE
WEEKEND AND TODAY HAS REDUCED THE SNOW TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER AND IN MOST PLACES ZERO.
THE OTHER ELEMENT OF COURSE IS THE QPF. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING
LATEST EC) HAVE NUDGED THE HEAVIEST QPF A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST...REDUCING AMOUNTS IN THE JAMES AND GREENBRIER SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN BASINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY AND COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT THIS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER JAMES. GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM OHRFC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ALDERSON WV ON THE GREENBRIER LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE COMBINED SNOWMELT AND QPF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
010-012-015-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ011-013-014-017-032-033-043.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ043-044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1108 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO CONVERT THE WINTER STORM
WARNING TO AN ADVISORY. SOME POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
WYOMING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINING ANOTHER SHOT
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMLUATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMLUATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PICK UP LESS THAN ONE
INCH. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR A LARGE PART
OF THE CWA. AS EXPECTED...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BECOME QUITE
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING POST FROPA
WITH EXCELLENT MIXING VIA INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. PEAK WIND
AT KCYS WAS 42 KTS JUST BEFORE 10Z...AND REMAINS STEADY AT 20 TO
30 MPH AT THIS HOUR WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRING IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR AMOUNTS AS LLVL FORCING
WILL DISAPPEAR QUICKLY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IF HEAVY BANDING PERSISTS INTO THE MORNING
COMMUTE. A WARM DAY YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SET US UP
FOR A FLASH FREEZE...SO ROADWAYS ARE ALREADY QUITE SLICK IN TOWN
HERE THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THIS IS THE CASE AREAWIDE BASED ON THE
ROAD CLOSURES WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY WITH LARGE SECTIONS OF I25 AND
I80 AFFECTED WEST OF LARAMIE AND NORTH OF CHEYENNE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EXITING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 150+ KT H25 JET OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL HAVE TO RELY ENTIRELY ON LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. SFC COLD FRONT ALREADY
ANALYZED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE...SO EXPECT SNOW TO LIGHTEN UP BEFORE LONG. EVEN
SO...WE SAW SOME HEFTY SNOW RATES OVER PLATTE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE. INITIAL CALLS TO AREA
DISPATCHERS INDICATE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH WINDS CREATING
PROBLEMS. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN NIOBRARA COUNTY
AND INTERSTATE 25 WAS CLOSED IN PLATTE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM/GFS SUGGEST WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE BY MID AFTN AS SFC
PRESSURE RISES SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE. DEFINITELY CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT CAUSING SNOW TO REDEVELOP IN
THE AFTN/EVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. HRRR IS
HITTING THIS AREA HARD BEYOND 21Z. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE A NON FACTOR LATER ON...OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING GIVEN OBSERVED IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS RIGHT AWAY IN THE AM
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING THEN. THE MODELS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 15Z...SO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
BECOME LESS OF A PROBLEM WITH TIME. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR A TIME...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN IDAHO AS
OF 12Z PER MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDLVL DRY SLOT HAS PROVEN
TO BE A MAJOR INHIBITOR FOR SNOW SO FAR ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND SIDNEY...SO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
LOCALLY TO COME TONIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
SO DECIDED AGAINST AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO REVISIT. KEPT ALL OTHER HEADLINES THE SAME...EXCEPT FOR
EXTENDING THEM THROUGH 07Z WED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP
SNOW POTENTIAL GOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. AS
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT...WINTER HAZARDS WILL TRANSITION TO WIND
CHILLS WITH WIDESPREAD -20F TO -30F READINGS LIKELY. FULLY EXPECT
SOME SORT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY ON THE HEELS
OF THE CURRENT WINTER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH VERY STRONG
H7 COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT DESPITE WIDESPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT
LEADING TO THICK CLOUDS AND SNOW GIVEN UNSEASONABLY COLD THERMAL
PROFILES IN THE LLVLS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WELL BELOW ANY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS
REMAINING VERY COLD / -20C PER THE NAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS RETURN FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE TWO CLIPPER SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOMEWHERE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICAL IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN JUST HOW THESE DISTURBANCES PUSH THRU. EITHER
SCENARIO CARRIES LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH...THE DID HAD SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY
WITH THE GFS STEERING ONE OF THE CLIPPERS DIRECTLY OVR THE REGION.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSE TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE 30S
WEST AND 40S OVR THE ERN PLAINS. THE APPROACHING UPPER-RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED WAA WILL LIFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCTD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS RESULTING IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101>111-113-115>117.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ112-114.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NEZ002-
003-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1058 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO CONVERT THE WINTER STORM
WARNING TO AN ADVISORY. SOME POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
WYOMING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINING ANOTHER SHOT
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMLUATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMLUATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PICK UP LESS THAN ONE
INCH. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR A LARGE PART
OF THE CWA. AS EXPECTED...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BECOME QUITE
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING POST FROPA
WITH EXCELLENT MIXING VIA INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. PEAK WIND
AT KCYS WAS 42 KTS JUST BEFORE 10Z...AND REMAINS STEADY AT 20 TO
30 MPH AT THIS HOUR WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRING IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR AMOUNTS AS LLVL FORCING
WILL DISAPPEAR QUICKLY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IF HEAVY BANDING PERSISTS INTO THE MORNING
COMMUTE. A WARM DAY YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SET US UP
FOR A FLASH FREEZE...SO ROADWAYS ARE ALREADY QUITE SLICK IN TOWN
HERE THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THIS IS THE CASE AREAWIDE BASED ON THE
ROAD CLOSURES WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY WITH LARGE SECTIONS OF I25 AND
I80 AFFECTED WEST OF LARAMIE AND NORTH OF CHEYENNE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EXITING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 150+ KT H25 JET OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL HAVE TO RELY ENTIRELY ON LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. SFC COLD FRONT ALREADY
ANALYZED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE...SO EXPECT SNOW TO LIGHTEN UP BEFORE LONG. EVEN
SO...WE SAW SOME HEFTY SNOW RATES OVER PLATTE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE. INITIAL CALLS TO AREA
DISPATCHERS INDICATE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH WINDS CREATING
PROBLEMS. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN NIOBRARA COUNTY
AND INTERSTATE 25 WAS CLOSED IN PLATTE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM/GFS SUGGEST WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE BY MID AFTN AS SFC
PRESSURE RISES SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE. DEFINITELY CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT CAUSING SNOW TO REDEVELOP IN
THE AFTN/EVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. HRRR IS
HITTING THIS AREA HARD BEYOND 21Z. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE A NON FACTOR LATER ON...OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING GIVEN OBSERVED IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS RIGHT AWAY IN THE AM
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING THEN. THE MODELS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 15Z...SO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
BECOME LESS OF A PROBLEM WITH TIME. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR A TIME...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN IDAHO AS
OF 12Z PER MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDLVL DRY SLOT HAS PROVEN
TO BE A MAJOR INHIBITOR FOR SNOW SO FAR ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND SIDNEY...SO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
LOCALLY TO COME TONIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
SO DECIDED AGAINST AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO REVISIT. KEPT ALL OTHER HEADLINES THE SAME...EXCEPT FOR
EXTENDING THEM THROUGH 07Z WED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP
SNOW POTENTIAL GOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. AS
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT...WINTER HAZARDS WILL TRANSITION TO WIND
CHILLS WITH WIDESPREAD -20F TO -30F READINGS LIKELY. FULLY EXPECT
SOME SORT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY ON THE HEELS
OF THE CURRENT WINTER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH VERY STRONG
H7 COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT DESPITE WIDESPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT
LEADING TO THICK CLOUDS AND SNOW GIVEN UNSEASONABLY COLD THERMAL
PROFILES IN THE LLVLS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WELL BELOW ANY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS
REMAINING VERY COLD / -20C PER THE NAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS RETURN FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE TWO CLIPPER SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOMEWHERE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICAL IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN JUST HOW THESE DISTURBANCES PUSH THRU. EITHER
SCENARIO CARRIES LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH...THE DID HAD SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY
WITH THE GFS STEERING ONE OF THE CLIPPERS DIRECTLY OVR THE REGION.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSE TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE 30S
WEST AND 40S OVR THE ERN PLAINS. THE APPROACHING UPPER-RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED WAA WILL LIFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POOR TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A
SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS AND FRONT PUSH THROUGH AREA AIRFIELDS.
ALL SITES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF -SN/SN ESPECIALLY THROUGH 16Z AND
AGAIN BETWEEN 22-06Z. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LOW CIGS ALONG
WITH THE ACTIVE UPSLOPE PATTERN WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z
OR SO...WITH VFR RETURNING TO MANY SPOTS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS RESULTING IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
WYZ101>111-113-115>117.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ112-114.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NEZ002-
003-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
521 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR A LARGE PART
OF THE CWA. AS EXPECTED...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BECOME QUITE
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING POST FROPA
WITH EXCELLENT MIXING VIA INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. PEAK WIND
AT KCYS WAS 42 KTS JUST BEFORE 10Z...AND REMAINS STEADY AT 20 TO
30 MPH AT THIS HOUR WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRING IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR AMOUNTS AS LLVL FORCING
WILL DISAPPEAR QUICKLY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IF HEAVY BANDING PERSISTS INTO THE MORNING
COMMUTE. A WARM DAY YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SET US UP
FOR A FLASH FREEZE...SO ROADWAYS ARE ALREADY QUITE SLICK IN TOWN
HERE THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THIS IS THE CASE AREAWIDE BASED ON THE
ROAD CLOSURES WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY WITH LARGE SECTIONS OF I25 AND
I80 AFFECTED WEST OF LARAMIE AND NORTH OF CHEYENNE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE NOW EXITING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THAT...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 150+ KT H25 JET OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL HAVE TO RELY ENTIRELY ON LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. SFC COLD FRONT ALREADY
ANALYZED ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE...SO EXPECT SNOW TO LIGHTEN UP BEFORE LONG. EVEN
SO...WE SAW SOME HEFTY SNOW RATES OVER PLATTE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE. INITIAL CALLS TO AREA
DISPATCHERS INDICATE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH WINDS CREATING
PROBLEMS. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN NIOBRARA COUNTY
AND INTERSTATE 25 WAS CLOSED IN PLATTE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM/GFS SUGGEST WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE BY MID AFTN AS SFC
PRESSURE RISES SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE. DEFINITELY CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT CAUSING SNOW TO REDEVELOP IN
THE AFTN/EVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. HRRR IS
HITTING THIS AREA HARD BEYOND 21Z. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE A NON FACTOR LATER ON...OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING GIVEN OBSERVED IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS RIGHT AWAY IN THE AM
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING THEN. THE MODELS SHOW FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AFTER 15Z...SO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
BECOME LESS OF A PROBLEM WITH TIME. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR A TIME...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN IDAHO AS
OF 12Z PER MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDLVL DRY SLOT HAS PROVEN
TO BE A MAJOR INHIBITOR FOR SNOW SO FAR ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND SIDNEY...SO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
LOCALLY TO COME TONIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE
SO DECIDED AGAINST AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO REVISIT. KEPT ALL OTHER HEADLINES THE SAME...EXCEPT FOR
EXTENDING THEM THROUGH 07Z WED AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP
SNOW POTENTIAL GOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. AS
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT...WINTER HAZARDS WILL TRANSITION TO WIND
CHILLS WITH WIDESPREAD -20F TO -30F READINGS LIKELY. FULLY EXPECT
SOME SORT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY ON THE HEELS
OF THE CURRENT WINTER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH VERY STRONG
H7 COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD INTO
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT DESPITE WIDESPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT
LEADING TO THICK CLOUDS AND SNOW GIVEN UNSEASONABLY COLD THERMAL
PROFILES IN THE LLVLS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WELL BELOW ANY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS
REMAINING VERY COLD / -20C PER THE NAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS RETURN FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE TWO CLIPPER SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL
TRAVERSE SOMEWHERE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICAL IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN JUST HOW THESE DISTURBANCES PUSH THRU. EITHER
SCENARIO CARRIES LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH...THE DID HAD SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY
WITH THE GFS STEERING ONE OF THE CLIPPERS DIRECTLY OVR THE REGION.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSE TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE 30S
WEST AND 40S OVR THE ERN PLAINS. THE APPROACHING UPPER-RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED WAA WILL LIFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POOR TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A
SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEMS AND FRONT PUSH THROUGH AREA AIRFIELDS.
ALL SITES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF -SN/SN ESPECIALLY THROUGH 16Z AND
AGAIN BETWEEN 22-06Z. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. LOW CIGS ALONG
WITH THE ACTIVE UPSLOPE PATTERN WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z
OR SO...WITH VFR RETURNING TO MANY SPOTS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS RESULTING IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ108-
115>117.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ101>107-
109>114.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NEZ002-
003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.
THROUGH SUNRISE...UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. COASTAL
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES
TO PLAGUE THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY
BRUSHING COASTAL COMMUNITIES...MAINLY ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
TO PUSH TO THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE H3R
AND RAP FOG FIELDS THAT THE SEA FOG COULD REACH AS FAR INLAND AS
HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE
LOW GIVEN THE PROJECTED CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE SEA FOG LOWERING VSBYS TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
FOR TODAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.
FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.
FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.
SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ352-354.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST/SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
354 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ONE BEING THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...AND THE OTHER A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW WORKING
ITS WAY INTO NERN MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN PORTION
OF NEB/SD. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...AND TEMPS AS OF 3 AM RANGE FROM RIGHT AROUND
THE 0 DEGREE MARK IN THE N/NE TO THE LOWER TEENS FURTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL WITH THAT
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND WHILE MODELS SHOW THAT WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER NERN MONTANA SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING...THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT WITH KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...THAT ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
KEEPING OUR WINDS LIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE E/SE WITH
TIME...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SRLY WITH TIME...A
BIT MORE SWRLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES. THOUGH THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER ON WONT BE BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA...IT WILL BE PUSHING A TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH...TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MODERATING AIR MASS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND WITH THOSE MORE
SRLY/EVENTUALLY WRLY WINDS...WILL BRING A WELCOME RISE IN
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE RAP FOR
HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WAS A BUMP UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT NOT A
HUGE CHANGE...WITH MID 30S IN THE EAST TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
FOR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD
COMPARED TO CURRENT TEMPS...WITH LOW/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
MUCH WARMER AIR WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG STORY LINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA...AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MOST DAYS THE SFC WIND
WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT AND AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OFF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALOFT
FAIRLY WARM. THIS ALL POINTS TO WARM SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...TO EVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER OUR RECENT COLD SNAP.
DESPITE NORMAL HIGHS ONLY BEING IN THE MID 40S...WE EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
POINTING TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD...WITH OVERALL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...BUT ANY CLOUDS THAT DO PASS THROUGH LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR INCREASED S/SWRLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 1O AND 15 MPH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
223 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR/SATL DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OF ANOMALOUS PWATS EXTENDING FROM THE S PACIFIC OCEAN NEWRD INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY PA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS OVERRUNNING AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH. EARLIER MIXED PRECIP ACROSS FAR SRN PENN AND
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 06-07Z
AS THE MEAN 925-850MB TEMP DIPPED TO JUST BELOW ZERO C. BRIGHT
BANDING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF KTHV AND KLNS SUGGESTS THAT
SLEET/RAIN WILL BE MIXED IN WITH THE SNOWFLAKES FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE BACKING SLIGHTLY EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
GLAKES TO MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SHORT
RANGE...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF WEAK 850-700
FGEN DEVELOPING/MVG NE FROM ECENT OHIO TO NERN PENN.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP /SNOW/ SHIELD TO TEMPORARILY BULGE
NORTH FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING /09-15Z/...AND
LIKELY REACH SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS SCENARIO
AGREES QUITE WELL WITH OUR CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH RESPECT
TO AMOUNTS AND AREAL DISTRIBUTION.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON NW FLOW.
LATEST 21-00Z SREF AND OPER MDL DATA CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A
GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AMTS NR 6 ALONG THE MD BORDER.
TEMPERATURES AT 07Z RUNNING FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO
THE L-M30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS/LOWER SUSQ REGION.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP
READINGS TO THE TEENS AND 20S BY DAWN.
PERTINENT POINT OF PREVIOUS DISC AND MODEL DATA...
21Z SREF AND 18Z GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES
AS HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE RECENT
00Z AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER AMTS THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BLEND OF LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE AM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND MAY LAST UNTIL LATE AFTN ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE EARLY OVR THE NW COUNTIES...RESULTING IN DRY/COLD WX THE
ENTIRE DAY UP THERE.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES LATE
IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID LVL CLOUD
DECK WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OVERCAST SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BLUNT ANY DIURNAL WARMING AND RESULT IN
STEADY TEMPS THRU EARLY AFTN...THEN FALLING TEMPS LATE.
CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORTS DAYTIME TEMPS FROM ONLY ARND 10F ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE L20S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ANOTHER
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW 0F AND THE
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF PA WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. NORTHERN SITES...ESPECIALLY KBFD MAY STAY MVFR OR
HIGHER.
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS KMDT ATTM. THIS
SHOULD BE COMPLETE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS WITH SNOW THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ017>019-049-051-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-034-035-050-052-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033-
036-064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR/SATL DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OF ANOMALOUS PWATS EXTENDING FROM THE S PACIFIC OCEAN NEWRD INTO
THE MISS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY PA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS
OVERRUNNING AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...CREATING
A BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN PA. AS OF
02Z...PTYPE IS LGT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KFIG/KUNV SOUTH THRU KJST IS NOW REPORTING
SNOW. AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF PA OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
WILL EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
ON NW FLOW.
ALL LATEST MDL DATA POINTING TOWARD A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AMTS
NR 6 ALONG THE MD BORDER. 18Z MDL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT BOTH INDICATE THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY UNTIL ARND 06Z. THUS...HAVE WILL
LOWER AMTS THERE.
TEMPERATURES AT 02Z RUNNING FROM THE U20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO
THE U30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF PRECIP AND
LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP READINGS TO THE TEENS AND 20S BY
DAWN.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
21Z SREF AND 18Z GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES
AS HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE RECENT
00Z AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER AMTS THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BLEND OF LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE AM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND MAY LAST UNTIL LATE AFTN ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE EARLY OVR THE NW COUNTIES...RESULTING IN DRY/COLD WX THE
ENTIRE DAY UP THERE.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES LATE
IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID LVL CLOUD
DECK WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OVERCAST SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BLUNT ANY DIURNAL WARMING AND RESULT IN
STEADY TEMPS THRU EARLY AFTN...THEN FALLING TEMPS LATE.
CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORTS DAYTIME TEMPS FROM ONLY ARND 10F ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO THE L20S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ANOTHER
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW 0F AND THE
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF PA WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. NORTHERN SITES...ESPECIALLY KBFD MAY STAY MVFR OR
HIGHER.
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS KMDT ATTM. THIS
SHOULD BE COMPLETE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS WITH SNOW THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ017>019-049-051-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-034-035-050-052-056>059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033-
036-064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS WELL OFFSHORE AT 0530Z. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE
WINDS...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KCLL AND KUTS BEFORE SUNRISE..
THE PRECIP TYPE OF BOTH KCLL AND KUTS LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A MIX
OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS THROUGH 10Z...AND IF THE TEMPERATURES
FALL ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY AROUND 13Z
AT BOTH SITES AND LIFT THE CEILINGS TO VFR BY 19Z.
FOR THE REMAINING SITES...THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FROM
KCXO THROUGH THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AND MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LIFT
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING THE WINDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SE TX AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE
COAST BY 11 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND CALDWELL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 37 DEGREES. LEANED TOWARD
THE RUC FOR HOURLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
REMOTELY CLOSE TO CURRENT OBS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT MODELS
ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH AND THAT COULD BE A REAL PROBLEM OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH SE TX AROUND 09Z AND WILL GENERATE A
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. HIGH POPS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE BUT BUMPED UP QPF TOWARD THE COAST AND RAISED POPS FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE PRECIP WILL BE A BIT
HEAVIER AND LAST A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...HAVE MORE
CONCERN THAT WINTER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AM HESITANT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT
RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP FREEZING LAYER
BETWEEN 500-3500 FEET WHICH APPEARS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP
TO SLEET. WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS VERY CLOSELY AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNINGS LOOK ON TARGET SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED. NEW ZONES OUT BY 945 PM. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 33 37 27 47 32 / 90 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 41 29 49 34 / 80 60 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 43 35 47 41 / 60 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
WHARTON.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.
ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.
*WE UPGRADED THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SURROUDING AREA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WITH A 10:30 AM UPDATE. WE HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN
REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AREAS. NAM HAS AN ADDITIONAL.1-.25
QPF WHICH WOULD PUSH TOTALS TO AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW.*
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.
IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.
ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.
A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.
SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.
A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY BUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.
ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.
IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.
ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.
A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.
SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.
A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.
THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
055-061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED WELL WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR AND WARM SUN IS SPILL ACROSS MOST OF IT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF SEA FOG ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST...AND ANY FOG THAT HAD ADVECTED ONSHORE EARLIER
HAS DISSIPATED WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND RETREATED BACK OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY REVOLVES
AROUND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLIPPING INTO THE LEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FRONT AS WELL AS THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...AND THEY
HAVE BEEN USED EXTENSIVELY FOR FORECAST UPDATES. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS ENTERING FROM THE WEST AROUND 2
PM. THE DAMPENING UPPER WAVE ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND THE FRONT WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
DISPLACED FROM ANY PVA ALOFT. THERE IS A POWERFUL 180 KT JET ALOFT
AND THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
IT...SO THAT WILL HELP PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT
REACHES THE FORECAST AREA IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MAINLY A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES. FINALLY...IT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT...WE WILL LIKELY COME CLOSE TO RECORDS AT KCHS AND KSAV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.
FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.
FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.
SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT WITH
LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND HAS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
ADVISORY THERE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL
RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR TO THAT GIVEN THE
LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL PERSIST
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ352-354.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
528 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
356 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ARCTIC AIR HAS OOZED INTO
THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS
HELPED TO KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO HARD OVERNIGHT. 3 AM
SURFACE MAP SHOWS ONLY ROCHELLE AT -1...WITH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LOWER TEENS IN THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND. MAY
SEE A FEW MORE SUB-ZERO TEMPS THROUGH SUNRISE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
CLOUD COVER...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS FROM -5
TO -15 F.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. ONLY SHALLOW MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE A FEW DEGREES LATER
IN THE NIGHT AS THOSE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE JUST A BIT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO...NEARING 25 MPH
AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ON FRIDAY...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A RAW FEEL TO THE DAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
356 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BROADENS AND DEAMPLIFIES
DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE THE PERSISTENT STRONG WEST COAST UPPER
RIDGE LOSES STRENGTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PERSISTENTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY...A COUPLE OF SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...ONE ON
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONTS WILL GLANCE THE AREA WITH THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...TEMPERING
THE WARM-UP JUST A BIT. STILL...WITH WARMING ALOFT AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE WEAK
FRONTS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRIES TO PAINT A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES AS WELL...THOUGH FORECAST
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.
MORE ROBUST WARMING LOOMS JUST PAST THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANOTHER DEEPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA. ECMWF WARMS OUR 850 MB TEMPS TO +2 C BY TUESDAY AND TO +6 C
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE BOOSTING SFC TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S TO START THE WEEK...AND INTO THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD...
MINIMIZING THE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* NONE.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING...THEN
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FRESHENING UP AT TIMES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOWS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
519 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The storm system that brought snow to southeast Illinois yesterday
and last evening was finally starting to shift away from our
forecast area early this morning. At the surface, high pressure
tracking southeast across northwest Iowa will drift across our
area today bringing another 24 hours of unseasonably cold weather
with afternoon highs struggling through the teens over most of the
forecast area, which is about 30 degrees below where it should be
for the first week in March. As the large fair weather system drifts
closer to central Illinois today, the wind this afternoon will not be
as gusty as what we saw yesterday. However, this morning, that will
be a different story, as the pressure gradient will be tight enough
for a few more hours to produce just enough wind to drop wind chills
down to between -10 to -15 mainly north of I-74 for a few hours early
this morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
Pretty tranquil weather through the period, with no precipitation
chances in the forecast into the middle of next week. Periodic upper
waves will zip through the area in the northern jet stream, but
moisture levels will be meager and little more than wind shifts are
expected in our area. The longer range models are in general
agreement with this pattern into mid week.
The main highlight will be the welcome trend toward milder weather.
The long wave trough from Lake Superior to New Mexico evident on
early morning water vapor imagery will move through the Midwest
later today. Lows in the single digits are still expected tonight,
but the coldest temperatures will be this evening, with steady or
rising temperatures overnight after surface high pressure settles
into the Ohio Valley. However, wind chills well below zero are on
tap, as low as 10 below in areas from Bloomington to Danville. After
that, nice southwest flow should get much of the western half of the
forecast area above freezing on Friday. Temperatures will continue
to warm into next week, with most areas well into the 50s by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. High
pressure to our northwest will shift over the region today
bringing a lighter wind flow and less in the way of cloud cover
compared to yesterday. Currently have a band of cirrus streaming
northeast across the area this morning but the latest HRRR forecasts
indicate those should be to our east by mid-morning. Surface winds
today will be from the northwest at 8 to 15 kts and then become
light and variable by 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
948 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE BETTER POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE TO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING THE BETTER RETURNS SHIFTING
EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM AS
ADVERTISED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE EAST FOR AN
HOUR AFTER THAT. THUS...AN EXTENSION IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE AS NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD CLEARING EXPECTED AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS FOR TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERHEAD...WE COULD
EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO IN SEVERAL AREAS...LIKELY SETTING SOME
RECORDS. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH AREAS AS COLD AS -8 NOW...BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THAT. PLAN TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.
THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.
AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.
THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.
AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.
THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.
AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
621 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.
THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.
AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.
THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
522 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ONE BEING THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...AND THE OTHER A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW WORKING
ITS WAY INTO NERN MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN PORTION
OF NEB/SD. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...AND TEMPS AS OF 3 AM RANGE FROM RIGHT AROUND
THE 0 DEGREE MARK IN THE N/NE TO THE LOWER TEENS FURTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL WITH THAT
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND WHILE MODELS SHOW THAT WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER NERN MONTANA SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING...THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT WITH KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...THAT ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
KEEPING OUR WINDS LIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE E/SE WITH
TIME...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SRLY WITH TIME...A
BIT MORE SWRLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES. THOUGH THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER ON WONT BE BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA...IT WILL BE PUSHING A TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH...TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MODERATING AIR MASS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND WITH THOSE MORE
SRLY/EVENTUALLY WRLY WINDS...WILL BRING A WELCOME RISE IN
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE RAP FOR
HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WAS A BUMP UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT NOT A
HUGE CHANGE...WITH MID 30S IN THE EAST TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
FOR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD
COMPARED TO CURRENT TEMPS...WITH LOW/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
MUCH WARMER AIR WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG STORY LINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA...AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MOST DAYS THE SFC WIND
WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT AND AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OFF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALOFT
FAIRLY WARM. THIS ALL POINTS TO WARM SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...TO EVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER OUR RECENT COLD SNAP.
DESPITE NORMAL HIGHS ONLY BEING IN THE MID 40S...WE EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
POINTING TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THIS TAF FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A FEW MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE
SIDE...BUT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
S/SWRLY AS THAT HIGH SLIDES OUT OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LATTER FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA...BRINGING A SWITCH TO WRLY WINDS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
700 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 AM EST THURSDAY...
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WILKESBORO AT 2AM WITH THE FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOUTHWEST INTO LOUISIANA. MSAS ANALYSIS WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRESSURE FALLS BUT THERE WAS A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD AIR INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SINCE MIDNIGHT.
AT 00Z THE 850MB FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
BRING THIS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z/7AM...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES TO -5 IN THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE DAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE VIRGINIA /
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM THE MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENT TIMING OF HOW
FAST THE WARM NOSE ERODES. LEANING TOWARD THE RAP AND NAM WHICH COOL
THE WARM NOSE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL TO
ADJUST THE TIMING AND SLOW DOWN THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND THEN SNOW. EXTENDED IN TIME THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR AMHERST AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE SNOW ENDS. ALSO ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING
RAIN HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...RUC GUIDANCE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO USED THIS AS A GUIDE FOR THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE TRANSITION TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
DURING EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BE MAKING THE
TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...JUST AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WHICH
WILL BE RACING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT WE WILL HAVE ALL
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR AREA BY 10 PM...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST SHOT OF FRIGID AIR FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS WE START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR ZERO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT...CAUSING THE COLDER AIR TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH.
WILL START SATURDAY OFF WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S EAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
IN THE NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MAY GET PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE
THINKING THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...AND WE WILL CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
IT WILL ALSO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS BRING THE GFS INTO PLAY
NOW FOR BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE
CANADIAN AND ECWMF STILL A LITTLE EARLIER. IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...WE WILL ALSO ADD WEDNESDAY INTO
THE MIX TO REFLECT THE MODEL VARIATIONS AND A SMALL POTENTIAL EACH
DAY FOR A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS OVER OR
NEAR THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY. EXPECT A RANGE OF
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EST THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRAW COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION CHANGING RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN SNOW.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IF NOT ALREADY THERE. VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IFR THROUGH 22Z/5PM AT MOST SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TOO
WHEN FZRA AND PL WILL START AT LOCAL AIRPORTS. AT THIS TIME USING
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TRENDS AND NAM TEMPERATURE PROFILES HAVE
KROA/KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB CHANGING TO FZRA/PL/SN BY NOON AND AT
KLYH/KDAN BEFORE 4PM. SNOW WILL BE ENDING AROUND 00Z/7PM AT ALL
SITES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY
FLOODING WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS MERCER AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY RANGED FROM ONE
/1.00/ TO ONE AND A HALF /1.50/ INCHES. THE RAINFALL...COMBINED
WITH EXISTING SNOWMELT...CAUSING EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING. IN
TERMS OF THE RIVERS...THE BLUESTONE AND CLINCH HAVE BEEN THE MOST
AFFECTED. MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS WERE REACHED AT SPANISHBURG AND
PIPESTEM...WITH MINOR FLOODING AT RICHLANDS. THESE LOCATIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING TODAY.
FOR TODAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
OCCURS BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...AND ALL THE BORDERING COUNTIES
WITH VIRGINIA...WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZE THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION...LIMITING FURTHER RUNOFF AND ALLOWING RIVERS AND SMALL
STREAMS TO RECEDE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>018-022-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-
020-023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ032-033-043>046-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-
047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ003-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
512 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
425 AM EST THURSDAY...
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WILKESBORO AT 2AM WITH THE FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOUTHWEST INTO LOUISIANA. MSAS ANALYSIS WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRESSURE FALLS BUT THERE WAS A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD AIR INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SINCE MIDNIGHT.
AT 00Z THE 850MB FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
BRING THIS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z/7AM...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES TO -5 IN THE NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE DAY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE VIRGINIA /
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM THE MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENT TIMING OF HOW
FAST THE WARM NOSE ERODES. LEANING TOWARD THE RAP AND NAM WHICH COOL
THE WARM NOSE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL TO
ADJUST THE TIMING AND SLOW DOWN THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND THEN SNOW. EXTENDED IN TIME THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR AMHERST AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE SNOW ENDS. ALSO ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING
RAIN HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...RUC GUIDANCE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO USED THIS AS A GUIDE FOR THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE TRANSITION TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
DURING EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BE MAKING THE
TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...JUST AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WHICH
WILL BE RACING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT WE WILL HAVE ALL
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR AREA BY 10 PM...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST SHOT OF FRIGID AIR FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS WE START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR ZERO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT...CAUSING THE COLDER AIR TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH.
WILL START SATURDAY OFF WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S EAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
IN THE NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MAY GET PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE
THINKING THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...AND WE WILL CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
IT WILL ALSO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS BRING THE GFS INTO PLAY
NOW FOR BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE
CANADIAN AND ECWMF STILL A LITTLE EARLIER. IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...WE WILL ALSO ADD WEDNESDAY INTO
THE MIX TO REFLECT THE MODEL VARIATIONS AND A SMALL POTENTIAL EACH
DAY FOR A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS OVER OR
NEAR THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY. EXPECT A RANGE OF
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE EAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WITH
PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS AND PERHAPS IFR AT TIMES AT KBLF/KLWB. BRIEF
MVFR MAY OCCUR AT KROA AND POINTS EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE TRENDING TO OVERALL MVFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW-N
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO A RAIN/SLEET MIX...TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO MAINLY ALL SNOW
BEFORE ENDING OUT EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSITION WILL
START FIRST AROUND 06Z/1AM AROUND KBLF...AND THE LAST LOCATION TO
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL BE KDAN AROUND 22Z/5PM. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS WILL START TO IMPROVE IN THE WEST.
A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WITH VFR TO MVFR CIGS LIKELY LINGERING IN THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY
FLOODING WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS MERCER AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY RANGED FROM ONE
/1.00/ TO ONE AND A HALF /1.50/ INCHES. THE RAINFALL...COMBINED
WITH EXISTING SNOWMELT...CAUSING EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING. IN
TERMS OF THE RIVERS...THE BLUESTONE AND CLINCH HAVE BEEN THE MOST
AFFECTED. MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS WERE REACHED AT SPANISHBURG AND
PIPESTEM...WITH MINOR FLOODING AT RICHLANDS. THESE LOCATIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING TODAY.
FOR TODAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
OCCURS BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...AND ALL THE BORDERING COUNTIES
WITH VIRGINIA...WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZE THE HYDROLOGIC
SITUATION...LIMITING FURTHER RUNOFF AND ALLOWING RIVERS AND SMALL
STREAMS TO RECEDE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>018-022-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-
020-023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ032-033-043>046-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-
047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ003-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
932 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
A 1004 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUIET BUT CHILLY THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MID TEENS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTN...BUT A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER FROM BECOMING TOO EXTENSIVE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTN HOURS TODAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. VSBYS
WILL STAY IN VFR CATEGORIES DUE TO A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE. THE
ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS FROM LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO JUST BELOW
900MB...OR JUST BELOW 3000FT THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WEAK THIS AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTS REACHING ONLY THE LOWER
TEENS...WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A STRONG 185 KNOT 250 MB JET MAX FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS PLACES THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE BECOMES CONVERGENT. 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION BECOMES
STRONGER BEFORE BECOMING WEAK UPWARD AS A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
THE 850/700 MB LAYERS REMAINS DRY...UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY WEST OF MADISON. SHALLOW HIGHER 925
MB MOISTURE...IS JUST ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW AFTERNOON
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
WEAK 925/850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TODAY AND INCREASES
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15
BELOW RANGE FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE HIGH DROPPING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 1 TO 3 THSD FT RANGE BECOME NORTH FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING LAKE CLOUDS CLOSE TO SHORE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
KEPT SOME FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LACKING ONCE AGAIN. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR NOW.
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MORE POTENT WAVE FOR
SATURDAY...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SYSTEM AND IS DRY. NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE SETUP...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COULD SOME 40S FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY...MAYBE EVEN 50 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED SINCE MID-DECEMBER.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH THE SNOW PACK WILL IMPACT THE
MILDER TEMPS. ALSO...IF DEWPOINTS GET HIGH ENOUGH WHILE THERE IS
STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND...MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FOG.
MAY BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. THE GFS IS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ALLOWS FOR ONSHORE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A LARGE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 25 HUNDRED FT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 1 TO 3 THSD FT RANGE BECOME NORTH FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING LAKE CLOUDS CLOSE TO SHORE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE. MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TODAY THEN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND CONTINUE TO EASE AS A LARGE
HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20.
BECAUSE ONLY FLURRIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ORANGE...PUTNAM...NORTHERN
FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES WHERE MUCH LESS SNOW
FELL...THE ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED.
A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO 1/2 MILE IS POSSIBLE WITH
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THRU 7 PM MAINLY ACROSS METRO NJ...NYC
AND LONG ISLAND.
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNTIL 10 PM...LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS THE
UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ADVECTING EAST
OF THE AREA.
AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...AS AN ARCTIC HI PRES SYS BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC.
ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.
THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE BACK EDGE OF SNOW
GRADUALLY CROSSING NYC TERMINALS ATTM HOWEVER PROGRESS HAS BEEN
SLOW. SNOW STARTING TO LIGHTEN UP AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASING DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDING ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL
TAFS. SOME RADAR ENHANCEMENT STILL BACK ACROSS PA AND HRRR
GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS THROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL EXPECT
VFR TO RETURN AFTER 00Z BUT MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR SO.
WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE W-NW AROUND 10 KT.
TOTAL RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...5-7 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 02Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.
SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ007>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...GC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
141 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES IN CT BASED ON CURRENT SNOWFALL
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS.
BACK EDGE OF HVY SNOW BAND IS MVG SE FROM ACROSS CENTRAL NJ NE ACROSS
SE CT...WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PLUS.
AT 18Z/1 PM...5.5 INCHES AT CENTRAL PARK...5.0 INCHES HERE AT THE
NWS OFFICE WITH MORE THAN 4 INCHES AT JFK AND LGA AIRPORTS.
WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW CONTS ACROSS NW NJ WITH A LIGHTER BAND POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM 19Z-21Z.
WILL BE DROPPING ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AS DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY NEAR ZERO.
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.
SNOW SHOULD END FROM NW TO SSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH FRIGID AND
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.
FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.
SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.
TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGEST LAST BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CROSS NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
18-21Z SO WE HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 HOURS IN TAF. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...BACK EDGE OF SNOW
SHOULD SWING THROUGH REGION BY 00Z AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER
00Z. KSWF IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.
SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ011-
012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
106>108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NEXT BAND OF HVY SNOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
PER HOUR AS SHOWN BY NEWARK`S LATEST 17Z SNINCR METAR OBSERVATION.
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.
THE HEAVIEST MEASURED SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE AROUND 5 INCHES THROUGH NOON.
WE WILL BE RECEIVING THE LATEST SNOWFALL UPDATES FROM OUR FIRST
ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND 1 PM. STAY TUNED.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED TO STAIR STEP INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 TO 1 AFT 18Z.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE WARNING AREA...WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.
ADVISORIES ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN
NEW HAVEN AND ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.
FOR THOSE UNDER THE ADVISORY AREA...A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT STATUS OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS REPORTED 2 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF 1 INCH SNOWFALL
INCREASES AT 13Z AND 14Z...EWR / LGA / JFK / ISP.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...EXPECT
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES TO RANGE FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 18Z.
ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LONG ISLAND COMES TO AND END
THIS EVENING...WITH FRIGID AND BUT DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. D
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
PRESENT.
FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S.
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS.
SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK.
TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGEST LAST BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CROSS NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
18-21Z SO WE HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 HOURS IN TAF. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...BACK EDGE OF SNOW
SHOULD SWING THROUGH REGION BY 00Z AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER
00Z. KSWF IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES.
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT
TODAY.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.
SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
106>108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
431 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.
FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.
FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.
IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.
FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY FOR KACY AND KILG AND
THOSE WILL BE UPDATED AT 7 PM TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED OTHERS LATER
THIS EVENING.
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG 430P
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.
FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.
FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.
IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.
FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
356 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ARCTIC AIR HAS OOZED INTO
THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS
HELPED TO KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO HARD OVERNIGHT. 3 AM
SURFACE MAP SHOWS ONLY ROCHELLE AT -1...WITH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LOWER TEENS IN THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND. MAY
SEE A FEW MORE SUB-ZERO TEMPS THROUGH SUNRISE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
CLOUD COVER...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS FROM -5
TO -15 F.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. ONLY SHALLOW MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE A FEW DEGREES LATER
IN THE NIGHT AS THOSE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE JUST A BIT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO...NEARING 25 MPH
AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ON FRIDAY...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A RAW FEEL TO THE DAY.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
356 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH BROADENS AND DEAMPLIFIES
DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE THE PERSISTENT STRONG WEST COAST UPPER
RIDGE LOSES STRENGTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PERSISTENTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY...A COUPLE OF SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...ONE ON
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONTS WILL GLANCE THE AREA WITH THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...TEMPERING
THE WARM-UP JUST A BIT. STILL...WITH WARMING ALOFT AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF EACH OF THESE WEAK
FRONTS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRIES TO PAINT A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES AS WELL...THOUGH FORECAST
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.
MORE ROBUST WARMING LOOMS JUST PAST THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANOTHER DEEPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA. ECMWF WARMS OUR 850 MB TEMPS TO +2 C BY TUESDAY AND TO +6 C
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE BOOSTING SFC TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S TO START THE WEEK...AND INTO THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD...
MINIMIZING THE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NWLY WINDS OCNLLY GUSTING TO 18-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. NWLY
WINDS OCNL GUSTING TO 18-20KT WILL SLOWLY BACK TO WLY THIS EVENING
WHILE DIMINISHING TO 5-7KT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SAG TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW AS WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL THE BECOME SWLY
TOMORROW...BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE FOR DEEP LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 20-25KT IS EXPECTED
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE REGION.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING...THEN
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FRESHENING UP AT TIMES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOWS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1059 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
Made some minor adjustments to the forecast in central and
southeast Illinois for sky cover today and to lower the overnight
lows in eastern IL.
High pressure centered near Des Moines, IA late this morning will
continue to slowly push eastward resulting in decreasing west
winds and unseasonably cold temperatures today and tonight. A few
records may be set today for coldest high temperatures on this
date, and we cold get close to some record lows in eastern IL
overnight. Lowered the temperatures to below zero readings in all
areas east of I-57 due to the extensive snow cover and the
expectation of a clear sky and very light wind overnight. In
central and west central IL, lowered the overnight temps a bit
early, but an increasing southerly wind should result in steady or
even slowly rising temperatures toward daybreak from Peoria-
Springfield and locations to the west.
The high resolution models such as the HRRR, NAM12 and to a lesser
extent the RAP, continue to indicate rapidly increasing low level
cloudiness this afternoon. These models have done this a lot
lately with very few clouds actually developing. Thus, am
anticipating some scattered cloud cover and generally mostly sunny
conditions in all of central and southeast IL this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The storm system that brought snow to southeast Illinois yesterday
and last evening was finally starting to shift away from our
forecast area early this morning. At the surface, high pressure
tracking southeast across northwest Iowa will drift across our
area today bringing another 24 hours of unseasonably cold weather
with afternoon highs struggling through the teens over most of the
forecast area, which is about 30 degrees below where it should be
for the first week in March. As the large fair weather system drifts
closer to central Illinois today, the wind this afternoon will not be
as gusty as what we saw yesterday. However, this morning, that will
be a different story, as the pressure gradient will be tight enough
for a few more hours to produce just enough wind to drop wind chills
down to between -10 to -15 mainly north of I-74 for a few hours early
this morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
Pretty tranquil weather through the period, with no precipitation
chances in the forecast into the middle of next week. Periodic upper
waves will zip through the area in the northern jet stream, but
moisture levels will be meager and little more than wind shifts are
expected in our area. The longer range models are in general
agreement with this pattern into mid week.
The main highlight will be the welcome trend toward milder weather.
The long wave trough from Lake Superior to New Mexico evident on
early morning water vapor imagery will move through the Midwest
later today. Lows in the single digits are still expected tonight,
but the coldest temperatures will be this evening, with steady or
rising temperatures overnight after surface high pressure settles
into the Ohio Valley. However, wind chills well below zero are on
tap, as low as 10 below in areas from Bloomington to Danville. After
that, nice southwest flow should get much of the western half of the
forecast area above freezing on Friday. Temperatures will continue
to warm into next week, with most areas well into the 50s by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. High
pressure to our northwest will shift over the region today
bringing a lighter wind flow and less in the way of cloud cover
compared to yesterday. Currently have a band of cirrus streaming
northeast across the area this morning but the latest HRRR forecasts
indicate those should be to our east by mid-morning. Surface winds
today will be from the northwest at 8 to 15 kts and then become
light and variable by 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
427 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE WINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED THE ARKLAMISS LATE LAST NIGHT AND MUCH
OF TODAY IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS HAVE ENDED. THERE ARE A
FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN THE PINEBELT REGION BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED ABOVE FREEZING AND NO TRAVEL ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THERE AS
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVIER ICE/SLEET...WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT ISSUES WITH
REFREEZING FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
WELL INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS DRY
NORTHERLY WINDS HELP TO DRY OFF THE ROADS. WHILE REFREEZING MAY OCCUR
IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS NOT QUITE AS BIG OF A CONCERN AS IT WAS
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY ON THE WELL-TRAVELED ROADS.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS OVER-DOING COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ICE COVER TONIGHT AND
THIS IS MAKING FOR A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DID NOT
WANT TO GO NEARLY AS LOW AS HRRR WHICH HAS SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DO BELIEVE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT NIGHTTIME
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HAVE CUT
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT NOT TOO MUCH AS
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF CIRRUS THAT DISRUPTS COOLING. /EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WE
GO INTO NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE TIME WE GET
TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES WILL EXIST AT
SITES WHERE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
EVENING...AND VFR STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 21 44 25 58 / 0 0 0 6
MERIDIAN 21 46 21 59 / 2 0 0 5
VICKSBURG 20 44 23 55 / 0 0 0 6
HATTIESBURG 24 51 25 63 / 9 0 0 7
NATCHEZ 21 44 24 58 / 0 0 0 8
GREENVILLE 18 38 23 51 / 0 0 0 4
GREENWOOD 17 41 21 54 / 0 0 0 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/17/19/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
INFRARED SATELLITE DATA SHOW INFLECTION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN LA. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT TO THE
MS/ALABAMA BORDER BY AROUND 21Z. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL/NE LA
ACROSS SW/CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF MS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS PUSHED THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHEAST TO A BROOKHAVEN TO
FOREST TO PHILADELPHIA TO MACON LINE. RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING SITUATION WELL AND SUGGESTS THE FREEZING LINE WILL PUSH A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
STABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS HEAVIER QPF LATE THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES
ACROSS AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGES IN.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A BIG CHALLENGE WITH A BIG MID LEVEL
WARM NOSE IN THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING (+11 DEG C) THAT BROUGHT COMPLETE
MELTING...ABOVE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD LAYER (-4.5 AND ~4000 FT DEEP)
WHICH APPARENTLY WAS ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE REFREEZING AS SLEET FELL AT
ABOUT THE TIME OF THE RAOB. SINCE THEN...THE FREEZING RAIN HAS MOSTLY
TRANSITIONED TO MDT/HEAVY SLEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA NW OF THE
FREEZING LINE. WE ASSUME THERE IS STILL A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE NOW.
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ALIGNMENT IS STILL OK BUT
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING LINE AS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE PINE BELT REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE KEEPS FREEZING RAIN PROBS JUST NW OF
THE HATTIESBURG AREA...AND THE SREF HAS PERFORMED WELL HAVING HIT
SLEET PROBS HARD SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WILL MAKE UPDATES TO THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME PRECIP INTO THE LATE AFTN OVER THE SE. WILL
ALSO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON SLEET WITH A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS FURTHER OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. /EC/
.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW CEILINGS
HEIGHTS. A MIX BAG OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THAT IN THE FORM OF A
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX...IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED AT NAMELY
KHKS...KJAN...AND KGTR. AT KGLH AND KGWO...PRECIPITATION IS COMING
TO AN END. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AT KMEI...FROM 17Z-20Z
TODAY...OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KHBG WILL REMAIN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S.
ANY SITES THAT INDEED EXPERIENCE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
A LIGHT ICING ON AIRCRAFT AND OTHER METAL AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
AGAIN...THIS IS AND/OR WILL BE THE CASE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHBG
WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO COME TO AND END BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTING
AT TIMES AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND RANGE BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.
TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.
PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
034-035-040-041.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1115 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ONE BEING THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...AND THE OTHER A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW WORKING
ITS WAY INTO NERN MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN PORTION
OF NEB/SD. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...AND TEMPS AS OF 3 AM RANGE FROM RIGHT AROUND
THE 0 DEGREE MARK IN THE N/NE TO THE LOWER TEENS FURTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL WITH THAT
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING FURTHER EAST AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE WEST COAST...AND WHILE MODELS SHOW THAT WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER NERN MONTANA SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING...THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT WITH KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...THAT ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
KEEPING OUR WINDS LIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE E/SE WITH
TIME...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SRLY WITH TIME...A
BIT MORE SWRLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES. THOUGH THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER ON WONT BE BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA...IT WILL BE PUSHING A TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH...TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MODERATING AIR MASS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND WITH THOSE MORE
SRLY/EVENTUALLY WRLY WINDS...WILL BRING A WELCOME RISE IN
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE RAP FOR
HIGHS TODAY...WHICH WAS A BUMP UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT NOT A
HUGE CHANGE...WITH MID 30S IN THE EAST TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST
FOR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD
COMPARED TO CURRENT TEMPS...WITH LOW/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
MUCH WARMER AIR WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE BIG STORY LINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA...AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MOST DAYS THE SFC WIND
WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT AND AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OFF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALOFT
FAIRLY WARM. THIS ALL POINTS TO WARM SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...TO EVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER OUR RECENT COLD SNAP.
DESPITE NORMAL HIGHS ONLY BEING IN THE MID 40S...WE EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE
MID 60S.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
POINTING TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN A
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO
THE WEST. AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
TRANSITION WESTERLY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGH
LEVELS...WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A PASSING JET
STREAK.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
330PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7PM EST
FOR THE LOWER SQV ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.
100PM...HAVE CANCELED PART OF THE WEATHER ADVISORY...OTHERWISE
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.
AS OF MID DAY THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH LEBANON COUNTY. MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH
RAP PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. HRRR SHOWS
THE SNOW GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...WITH A RAPID TAPERING OFF AFTER 21Z. THIS SUPPORTS FINAL
SNOW TALLIES IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD LOWS OF ZERO OR BELOW.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS... SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR NORTH OF THE BANDED
PRECIPITATION THAT IS CAUSING MVFR-IFR/LIFR FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LANCASTER-HARRISBURG LIKELY BEING THE
LAST TO ENJOY IN THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. JST MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TOUGH UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ033>035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-
057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELED PART OF THE WEATHER ADVISORY...OTHERWISE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.
AS OF MID DAY THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH LEBANON COUNTY. MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH
RAP PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. HRRR SHOWS
THE SNOW GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...WITH A RAPID TAPERING OFF AFTER 21Z. THIS SUPPORTS FINAL
SNOW TALLIES IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD LOWS OF ZERO OR BELOW.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS... SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV.
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR NORTH OF THE BANDED
PRECIPITATION THAT IS CAUSING MVFR-IFR/LIFR FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LANCASTER-HARRISBURG LIKELY BEING THE
LAST TO ENJOY IN THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. JST MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TOUGH UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ036-
057>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ033>035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE CANCELED PART OF THE WEATHER ADVISORY...OTHERWISE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.
AS OF MID DAY THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH LEBANON COUNTY. MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH
RAP PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. HRRR SHOWS
THE SNOW GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...WITH A RAPID TAPERING OFF AFTER 21Z. THIS SUPPORTS FINAL
SNOW TALLIES IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD LOWS OF ZERO OR BELOW.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS... SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SWRLY
SFC WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND PERSISTING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. COLD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS FRIDAY WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEG F FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A MORE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TEMP
DROP OF 12-15F IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR NORTH OF THE BANDED
PRECIPITATION THAT IS CAUSING MVR-IFR/LIFR FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LANCASTER-HARRISBURG LIKELY BEING THE
LAST TO ENJOY IN THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. JST MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TOUGH UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ036-
057>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ033>035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1223 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF MID DAY THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH LEBANON COUNTY. MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH
RAP PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. HRRR SHOWS
THE SNOW GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...WITH A RAPID TAPERING OFF AFTER 21Z. THIS SUPPORTS FINAL
SNOW TALLIES IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD LOWS OF ZERO OR BELOW.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS... SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.
ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SAG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SWRLY
SFC WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND PERSISTING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. COLD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS FRIDAY WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEG F FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A MORE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TEMP
DROP OF 12-15F IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR NORTH OF THE BANDED
PRECIPITATION THAT IS CAUSING MVR-IFR/LIFR FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LANCASTER-HARRISBURG LIKELY BEING THE
LAST TO ENJOY IN THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. JST MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TOUGH UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
TUE...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ033-
036-057>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024>028-034-035-050-052-056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
113 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. WINTRY WEATHER ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HEADS TO THE MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 102 PM EST THURSDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER SNOW BANDING AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...SOUTH TO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF HWY 460. GOOD
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 800-750MB LAYER WITH EPV ATOP OVER
THE ALLEGHANYS SHOWING BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS WHICH IS EVIDENT
ON RADAR.
STILL NOT PLANNING ON HEADLINE CHANGES...THOUGH THINK APPOMATTOX
COUNTY COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES BY EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE LIMITED ON AMOUNTS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF START CLEARING THINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 3-4 PM...THEN
EXITS THE PIEDMONT BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THEY SHOW POTENTIAL NARROW
BAND OVER THE ROANOKE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD DUMP
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...IF THIS SETS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST SHOT OF FRIGID AIR FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS WE START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM NEAR ZERO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT...CAUSING THE COLDER AIR TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH.
WILL START SATURDAY OFF WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S EAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
IN THE NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MAY GET PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE
THINKING THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...AND WE WILL CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
IT WILL ALSO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS BRING THE GFS INTO PLAY
NOW FOR BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE
CANADIAN AND ECWMF STILL A LITTLE EARLIER. IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...WE WILL ALSO ADD WEDNESDAY INTO
THE MIX TO REFLECT THE MODEL VARIATIONS AND A SMALL POTENTIAL EACH
DAY FOR A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS OVER OR
NEAR THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY. EXPECT A RANGE OF
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY...
POOR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SLEET AND SNOW. MODELS ALL CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP
ENDS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT DAN THIS
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DID ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AT BCB/LWB.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON FOG.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY...
FLOODING STILL ONGOING OVER THE BLUESTONE AND CLINCH RIVERS.
PRECIP CHANGING TO SLEET/SNOW WILL CUT BACK ON RUNOFF WHILE TEMPS
FALL.
WILL BE WATCHING THE UPPER JAMES AND THE GREENBRIER RIVERS AS
WELL FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
009>018-022-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-
020-023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ032-033-043>046-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-
047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM