Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/04/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AR. SHORTWAVE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPS TONIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS
FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR
FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND WINTER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN.
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY...AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ALL DEPEND ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 1-3, 2-4, 4 TO 6 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND ICING POTENTIAL WITH
LESS THAN A TENTH...A FEW TENTHS...TO SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REACHING A QUARTER OR HIGHER ICING AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WITH IN LATE MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 40 34 55 35 / 20 30 70 70
CAMDEN AR 41 37 65 51 / 50 30 50 80
HARRISON AR 40 34 56 27 / 10 30 60 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 40 37 59 43 / 50 30 60 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 39 35 59 42 / 40 30 60 80
MONTICELLO AR 43 40 65 53 / 50 40 50 80
MOUNT IDA AR 39 37 58 41 / 50 30 70 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 40 33 55 30 / 10 30 60 50
NEWPORT AR 41 36 56 36 / 20 30 70 70
PINE BLUFF AR 39 37 62 46 / 50 30 60 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 35 56 39 / 30 30 70 60
SEARCY AR 38 35 57 39 / 30 30 70 80
STUTTGART AR 39 36 59 42 / 50 30 60 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
525 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 40 34 55 35 / 20 30 70 70
CAMDEN AR 41 37 65 51 / 50 30 50 80
HARRISON AR 40 34 56 27 / 10 30 60 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 40 37 59 43 / 50 30 60 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 39 35 59 42 / 40 30 60 80
MONTICELLO AR 43 40 65 53 / 50 40 50 80
MOUNT IDA AR 39 37 58 41 / 50 30 70 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 40 33 55 30 / 10 30 60 50
NEWPORT AR 41 36 56 36 / 20 30 70 70
PINE BLUFF AR 39 37 62 46 / 50 30 60 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 35 56 39 / 30 30 70 60
SEARCY AR 38 35 57 39 / 30 30 70 80
STUTTGART AR 39 36 59 42 / 50 30 60 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.
THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 40 34 55 35 / 20 30 70 70
CAMDEN AR 41 37 65 51 / 50 30 50 80
HARRISON AR 40 34 56 27 / 10 30 60 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 40 37 59 43 / 50 30 60 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 39 35 59 42 / 40 30 60 80
MONTICELLO AR 43 40 65 53 / 50 40 50 80
MOUNT IDA AR 39 37 58 41 / 50 30 70 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 40 33 55 30 / 10 30 60 50
NEWPORT AR 41 36 56 36 / 20 30 70 70
PINE BLUFF AR 39 37 62 46 / 50 30 60 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 35 56 39 / 30 30 70 60
SEARCY AR 38 35 57 39 / 30 30 70 80
STUTTGART AR 39 36 59 42 / 50 30 60 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...9 AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. BASED ON TRENDS THE CENTER HAS
STOPPED DIGGING S AND IS MOVING ENE. IT WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ENE
ACROSS SRN CA THIS MORNING AND UP INTO NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS PAINTED SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AZ MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE E. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE IN THIS BAND WITH AJO RECORDING
0.35" BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND HRRR DATA
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO SE
PINAL/ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM...GIVE OR TAKE
AN HOUR. THE CENTRAL TO NE MOUNTAINS WILL START A LITTLE EARLIER DUE
TO THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET WITH SNOW PICKING UP IN
INTENSITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER STORM FOR THE WHITES AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES PINALENO/CATALINA/RINCON MTNS THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AFTER 11 AM. WIND ALSO AN ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HAVE SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
ZONES BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MORE ON THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV
THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z. SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SE AZ AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY
ONWARD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY
ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
AZZ512>515.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
306 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDE
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA INTO
TOMORROW. AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
TRACE AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONVECTIVE,
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND, BUT NOT NEARLY AS PERSISTENT.
HOWEVER, IF A STRONG STORM DEVELOPS THEN LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF SNOW MAY RESULT.
A MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AS THE NAM
SWINGS IT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM RENO EASTWARD
DURING THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME, WHILE THE GFS IS A COUPLE OF HOURS
EARLIER. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AROUND 12Z, AND DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SNOW AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN
INCH, LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER MORE WELL
DEVELOPED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME ENHANCEMENT
NEAR AREA LAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS
BETWEEN LAKE SURFACES AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ARE GREATER THAN
5C. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH, BUT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND LIKELY AFFECT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS, SUCH AS THE
MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LEFTOVER
FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING.
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL START MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE HIGH 60S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE MID 50S FOR
THE SIERRA BY FRIDAY. WEISHAHN
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SIERRA VALLEYS EASILY REACHING THE UPPER 50`S AND POSSIBLY LOW
60`S DURING THE DAY. WESTERN NEVADA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60`S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND
INCREASED SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL OVERNIGHT,
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW 20`S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN
RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALLOWING A LARGE CLOSED
LOW TO DEVELOP UNDER IT AROUND 150W. THIS COULD STRENGTHEN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WHILE A POSITIVE RIDGE ANOMALY BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE,
SIGNIFICANT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN ABOUT JUST HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR SOUTH COLD AIR WILL BE
ENTRAINED. TOLBY
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. CONTINUED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MFVR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KTVL/KTRK. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ERRATIC NEAR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH GUSTS OF 20KTS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT HRRR SHOWS A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH NW NEVADA POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KNFL AROUND 10Z.
MODERATE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER ANY
POSSIBLE CLEARING WOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN SIERRA VALLEYS.
LIGHT NORTH SURFACE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. TOLBY
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1039 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015
.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.
&&
.Discussion...
Scattered showers continue this morning with the best coverage
over the Sierra. Main forecast challenge today will be snow amounts
with convective bands over the Sierra. Snow levels are currently
around 5000 feet and expect snow amounts 2-4 inches above this
level with locally higher amounts with stronger convection.
Strengthening March sun will help melt snow off roadways between
bands. Updated forecast to raise Sierra precip amounts/chances
more in line with HRRR which will likely handle this convective
scenario better. Will maintain isolated thunderstorm threat over
the valley given 250 j/g of cape forecast by NAM Buf sounding.
.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.
Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).
While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.
Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.
High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week. JClapp
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours, with
scattered -SHRA possible during the day. For the mountains,
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through this evening.
Snow levels will be around 4000 ft. Across the Valley...south
winds 5-15 kt will become light tonight.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
706 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND PUEBLO AND PUEBLO WEST.
RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD
ENOUGH LAYER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF SNOW BAND TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...WE COULD GET SOME SEEDER
FEEDER EFFECTS WHICH WILL QUICKLY CONVERT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. RAP INDICATES TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP WITHIN THE SATURATED
LAYER TO -10C OR COLDER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONCE THE
SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES IN...IT WILL BE AN ABRUPT CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. THEREFORE...JUST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE
THIS EVENING TO CONTEND WITH. MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADE FOR PUEBLO COUNTY ASSOC WITH ICING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS FREMONT AND
TELLER COUNTY. BOTH HRRR AND RAP13 DEPICT THE BAND OF SNOW OUT
THERE NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOC
WITH UPGLIDE. THIS BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HAD TO MAKE A CORRECTION TO THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
...SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALONG THE S MTNS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR THESE REGIONS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN I HAVE IS OVER FAR SE PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STATE OF CO WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
OCCURRING OVER BACA COUNTY. FOR NOW....HAVE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THIS REGION AND WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEAVY SNOW.
I HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNINGS FOR THE C MTNS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
SAN JUANS...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW THIS
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.
COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THE 2NDRY URGE WILL EVEN
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS 2NDRY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 3 AM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW...
RUSH HOUR IS GOING TO BE A MESS OVER THE REGION. STEADY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND ADJ MTNS AFTER
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH WINDCHILLS RANGING BETWEEN +5F
AND -10F ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES THE SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION/RATON MESA REGION UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUM SNOW LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.
OVERALL...
I EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS...AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SNOW BAND. THE S MTNS SHOULD SEE 4 TO 10
INCH AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORABLE...THEN
WE COULD SEE DEEPER AMOUNTS OF FLUFF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO IT LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH WED EVE.
THEREFORE...STAGGERED THE POPS TO SHOW THEM FINALLY DIMINISHING
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE IN WITH
DOWNWARD FORCING HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 5 TO -10 DEG RANGE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US AND HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS A HINT OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR THE 30S ON
THU...40S FRI AND SAT...THEN 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR SUN THROUGH
TUE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB
AND LAST INTO TOMORROW. THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR BOTH TAF SITES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN AT KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AT
PUEBLO LATER TONIGHT.
KALS...VFR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH COULD BRING OCNL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
512 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS FREMONT AND
TELLER COUNTY. BOTH HRRR AND RAP13 DEPICT THE BAND OF SNOW OUT
THERE NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOC
WITH UPGLIDE. THIS BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HAD TO MAKE A CORRECTION TO THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
...SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALONG THE S MTNS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR THESE REGIONS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN I HAVE IS OVER FAR SE PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STATE OF CO WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
OCCURRING OVER BACA COUNTY. FOR NOW....HAVE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THIS REGION AND WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEAVY SNOW.
I HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNINGS FOR THE C MTNS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
SAN JUANS...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW THIS
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.
COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THE 2NDRY URGE WILL EVEN
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS 2NDRY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 3 AM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW...
RUSH HOUR IS GOING TO BE A MESS OVER THE REGION. STEADY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND ADJ MTNS AFTER
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH WINDCHILLS RANGING BETWEEN +5F
AND -10F ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES THE SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION/RATON MESA REGION UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUM SNOW LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.
OVERALL...
I EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS...AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SNOW BAND. THE S MTNS SHOULD SEE 4 TO 10
INCH AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORABLE...THEN
WE COULD SEE DEEPER AMOUNTS OF FLUFF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO IT LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH WED EVE.
THEREFORE...STAGGERED THE POPS TO SHOW THEM FINALLY DIMINISHING
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE IN WITH
DOWNWARD FORCING HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 5 TO -10 DEG RANGE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US AND HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS A HINT OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR THE 30S ON
THU...40S FRI AND SAT...THEN 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR SUN THROUGH
TUE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB
AND LAST INTO TOMORROW. THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR BOTH TAF SITES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN AT KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AT
PUEBLO LATER TONIGHT.
KALS...VFR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH COULD BRING OCNL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
347 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015
STG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN AREAS TONIGHT. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 THRU
THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE IN ZN 33 BY MIDDAY. OVER
NERN CO A SFC LOW WILL BE NR DENVER WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN. HIGHS
OVER NERN CO ARE GOING TO BE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW
COVER IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION WITH A SFC LOW NR DENVER
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW MAY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD COVER MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR INTO WELD COUNTY.
THUS READINGS OVER NRN AREAS OF URBAN CORRIDOR MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE LOWER 30S WHILE SRNS ARAS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. OVER
THE PLAINS WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS READINGS COULD RISE WELL INTO
THE 40S WHERE GUSTY SSW WINDS OCCUR.
FOR TONIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CO-WY BORDER AREA
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS WITH HEAVY SNOW IN ZNS 31
AND 33. OVER NERN CO APPEARS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THRU
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A STG CDFNT MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN BUT IT WILL PROBABLY COME IN
FASTER THAN MODELS SHOW ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW WILL HAVE IT NR THE WY BORDER BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN THRU
DENVER BY AROUND 3 AM OR SO. QG FIELDS SHOW STG MID LVL DESCENT
LATE TONIGHT WITH INITIAL FNT PASSAGE SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DVLP AS BEST CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS NR THE WY BORDER WITH ONLY CHC POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS DENVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015
VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE DECREASE
TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT LATE...THE AXIS IS OVER THE CWA WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND WESTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE
WEST. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS STRONG UPSLOPE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
THEN MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...IT LOOKS PRETTY DEEP
FOR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FOR ALL THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. MOISTURE
DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THINGS
ARE PRETTY MUCH DRIED OUT BY 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...THE OVER THE WESTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OVER ALL THE CWA
ON ALL THE MODELS ALL TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS TINY BIT PROGGED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN EVEN
LESS JUST FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOTHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...THERE IS SOME HELP FROM
OROGRAPHICS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL GO WITH 80% PLUS POPS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING THERE. THE FOOTHILLS AND ASSOCIATED PLAINS WILL
SEE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRETTY STRONG UPSLOPE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE UPSLOPE IS NOT VERY DEEP HOWEVER...UNDER 700
MB ON ALL THE MODELS. WILL NEED 70% PLUS POPS IN THE THOSE AREAS
TO INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY ANYWAY. THE FURTHER EAST IN THE PLAINS
YOU GO WILL NEED LOWER POPS. WILL DIMINISH THE POPS EVERYWHERE
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME "CHANCE"S OF LESS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.. AFTER THAT NO POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 9-16 C COLDER
THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S ARE CLOSE TO TUESDAY`S. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE CWA. THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGING AROUND. IT STILL
LOOKS DRY ALL FOUR DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015
DENVER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF DIA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE NW...NORTH AND EAST. AT SOME POINT EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE AIRPORT ONCE WINDS BECOME
MORE W OR NW IN THE 14Z-15Z TIME PERIOD. MAY SEE DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 FOR A FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR KEEPS LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG AROUND THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN AS THE CYCLONE IS
LOCATED EAST OF DIA. AS FOR WINDS THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT WNW BY MID
MORNING AND THEN NNW BY MIDDAY THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON WHERE CIRCULATION CENTER IS COULD STILL SEE
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE EVENING BEFORE LOW LVL FLOW BECOME
MORE WLY IN ADVANCE OF A CDFNT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND 09Z.
GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FNT PASSAGE WITH A CHC OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR SNOW WILL
BE AFTER 12Z ON TUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.
STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.
A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.
A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.
STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.
A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.
A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
924 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.
STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.
A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.
A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
826 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...
...NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...
.UPDATE...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET-UP SOUTH OF STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
LIES E-W ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FLOW TONIGHT WILL HOLD OFF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SEA FOG ALONG THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL
IMPACT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT PUSH
IT AS FAR INLAND AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. EVEN WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VSBYS MAY NOT BE AS
LOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE WITH LOWER VSBYS IN SEA FOG
ALONG THE SE GA COAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD AROUND 60 DEGREES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MILD START ALONG WITH INCREASING S/SW FLOW TO
15G20-25 MPH WILL JUMP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. WILL PROBABLY
FALL JUST OF RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW BUT NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE 86 DEGREES AT
JAX/AMG LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. HRRR SHOWS MOST PROLONGED REDUCED
VSBYS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FROM JACKSONVILLE BEACH NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH VSBYS QUICKLY REDUCING TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS FROM NOW UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO MORE INTERMITTENT YET IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NE FL
TERMINALS WITH KVQQ BEING A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO LOCATION OF
WEATHER SENSOR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR STARTING MID MORNING
WED WITH RADIATIONAL HEATING AND MIXING OF S-SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
AROUND 15Z. KSSI VSBYS MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 16Z DUE TO COASTAL
FOG LINGERING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EVEN MORE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES LATER IN THE DAY. MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL BE A BATTLE AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
SLIGHTLY AND MAY END UP BEING A COMBINATION OF SEA FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY
SWELLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SLOWLY DOWN ATLAMAHA AND
SATILLA RIVER BASINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH...
JAX 86/1997...GNV 89/1997...AMG 86/1961...SSI 85/1953
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 83 62 81 / 20 0 10 30
SSI 57 74 59 76 / 10 0 10 30
JAX 61 84 62 84 / 0 0 10 20
SGJ 62 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 61 85 60 83 / 10 0 10 20
OCF 61 85 60 84 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/CORDERO/SHULER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA IN THE FORM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE IS THE DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
CONTINENT...BUT IT WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXISTS TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EJECT
EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...IT WILL FORCE THE DOWNSTREAM
PATTERN/RIDGE TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE OUR
AREA WITH A SPRING-LIKE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CONSISTING OF
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SURFACE...A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN THAN IN DAYS PAST IS
PROVIDING ONLY A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL QUICKLY BE SLIDING EASTWARD
AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY FIND A HOME OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND END UP RIDGING
BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS BEEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PENINSULA TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WATCHING THE VISIBILITY VALUES CLOSELY AS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME AREA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
FORECAST DILEMMA THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA
OF FOG CAN GET BEFORE THE SUN RISES AND STARTS TO MIX IT OUT. NONE
OF THE MODEL MEMBERS CURRENTLY ARE HANDLING THIS AREA OF FOG VERY
WELL...SO SIMPLY TRACKING ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND SPEED TO
DETERMINE A BEST GUESS AS TO WHICH AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED BEFORE
SUNRISE. APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS FOG WILL MAKE IT AT LEAST SOUTH TO
PARTS OF MANATEE/HARDEE/NORTHERN HIGHLANDS. SOMETIMES ALL THE SKILL
IN THE WORLD WILL NOT HELP YOU IN THE TRICKY ART OF FORECASTING FOG.
SOMETIMES IT IS JUST A "WAIT AND SEE...THROW YOUR HANDS UP...PULL
YOUR HAIR OUT" TYPE OF NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING/STRENGTHENING OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY...AND REACH ITS MOST
AMPLIFIED STATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING OVER TIME AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AND ITS LARGE
SCALE SUPPRESSION TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH LATER TODAY
AND TUESDAY SHOW VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...SO EVEN THROUGH WE
WILL SEE SEA-BREEZE FORMATION EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...AND
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY MOIST FOR EARLY MARCH...ANY UPDRAFTS ARE
GOING TO REALLY STRUGGLE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE EVEN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE ABLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. FORECAST POPS ARE GOING
TO BE BELOW 10% THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE AN ABOVE AVERAGE PERIOD BOTH
DAY AND AT NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE REASON GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
PROFILE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH OF I-4...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH OF I-4. THE ONLY PLACES THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
80 WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE SEA-BREEZE FORMATION BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEACHES MAY
BRIEFLY GET UP NEAR 80 BEFORE THE SEA-BREEZE KICKS IN AND DROPS
TEMPS BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 70S. HOWEVER...EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL
BE QUITE PLEASANT REGION-WIDE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S AROUND LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD I-4...AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
MOST LIKELY THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER LAND EACH NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE
INCREASING THREAT FOR SEA FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE MARINE WATERS. THE
SREF/NARRE ARE SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES OF SEA FOG BY LATER TODAY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE/FAST IN DEVELOPING SEA FOG...AND WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
STILL OUT OF THE EAST (OTHER THAN THE SEA-BREEZE)...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG (IF THAT) THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS. BASED ON A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR SEA
FOG...THE THREAT SHOULD NOT REALLY INCREASE UNTIL LATER
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH. OVER LAND...THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVERTOP A
GENERALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT... AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THROUGH THU; THE AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING WITH A STABLE
WARM AND GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SLIDES EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE BAHAMAS...AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-CONUS...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGES ACROSS FL INTO THE
GULF. THIS RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA FOG.
DURING THU AND THROUGH FRI; THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN
CONUS AS IT DAMPENS OUT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING IN ALONG THE GULF COAST/ ECMWF/ OR ACROSS NORTHERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL/ GFS/ AND BECOMING
DIFFUSE. IN EITHER CASE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
AROUND THE AREA FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS SETTLES
SOUTHEASTWARD.
SAT AND SUN; THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS IN
PLACE...WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING IT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST WHILE THE GFS LOCATES IT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER FORMING ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC PORTION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRIDGE THE BOUNDARY WITH NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WINDS FILTERING IN OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW IN THE NORTH
WHILE THE SOUTH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
TRACKING AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOVING DOWN TOWARD THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT VIS AND/OR CIG RESTRICTIONS LOOK LIKELY
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR KLAL. TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER KTPA/KPIE
WILL BE IMPACTED BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW END MVFR IN THE
TAF ALREADY AFTER 09Z FOR THESE TERMINALS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS CLOSELY AND WILL AMEND LOWER IF NECESSARY. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE FOG IS MORE PATCHY IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH KPGD/KFMY/KRSW
MAY SEE PERIODIC IFR/MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER ANY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY LOOKS TO
FEATURE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
OF KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE INTERRUPTED EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST BY
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST WATERS DURING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL INCREASE. ALTHOUGH PATCHY
SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY...IF SIGNIFICANT SEA FOG AREAS
ARE GOING TO DEVELOP...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
THURSDAY WILL END THE SEA FOG THREAT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF FOG THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL...
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THE
FOG IS LIKELY TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 65 78 64 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 84 65 83 64 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 82 64 82 64 / 10 10 10 0
SRQ 81 64 78 63 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 82 61 82 58 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 80 65 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1236 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TO UPDATE BASED ON
TRENDS...AND REDUCED POPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. HAVE SENT A REFRESH TO THE PRODUCTS ALREADY FOR THE
EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
NEW OBS HAVE COME IN AND ARE INDICATING THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BACK TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IS FOR THE PRECIP TO
DWINDLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS
CONTINUING TREND.
WEAK WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWFA. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO LIFT A
BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL...BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 50S NEAR CENTRAL GA. THE MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY UPON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WEAK FRONT
WILL MAKE IT.
WEAK WEDGING WILL TRY AND SET UP IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A SHARP
MAX TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT COULD REACH ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER 70S...WHILE AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT...IN THE WEDGE...WILL REMAIN THE IN UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50. AGAIN...THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON WHERE THE
WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE SET UP. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...TODAY AND
TUESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY DRY...WITH JUST
SPOTTY AREAS OF PRECIP TODAY. THE BEST PLACES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A LITTLE
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
OVERALL...JUST THINK THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SHOULD SUFFICE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SHOWING THE WORK WEEK DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
FAIRLY WARM PATTERN UNTIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE SHARP SURFACE FRONT
THE SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SEEING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS ALSO STILL HAVE ME A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
STILL INSIST ON BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM SQUEEZING OUT SOME LOW QPF PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWEST THICKNESSES REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A THE SHOT
OF COOL AIR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE HEART OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. MAINLY DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SURGING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP
OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
MAY BE APPROPRIATE.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST FOR AHN/MCN AND METRO TAFS.
SHOULD SEE CONTINUED VFR FOR A WHILE AHN BUT MCN/METRO TAFS MAY BE
IN AND OUT FOR A WHILE. EXPECT ALL TO DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING AND IFR AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. COULD SEE LIFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO TAFS WITH -RA.
WINDS NW 5-10KT INITIALLY SHIFTING TO NE WITH THE LOWER CIGS AT
06Z. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SWING AROUND TO E OR SE BY TUESDAY
MIDDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 46 50 48 / 40 60 70 50
ATLANTA 58 49 60 55 / 40 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 53 44 48 48 / 90 60 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 52 46 56 53 / 60 60 70 60
COLUMBUS 65 58 73 59 / 40 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 59 45 48 46 / 40 60 70 60
MACON 66 56 69 57 / 20 40 40 20
ROME 49 45 57 54 / 80 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 59 51 62 56 / 40 40 40 30
VIDALIA 69 57 69 60 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
922 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS TO UPDATE BASED ON
TRENDS...AND REDUCED POPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. HAVE SENT A REFRESH TO THE PRODUCTS ALREADY FOR THE
EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
NEW OBS HAVE COME IN AND ARE INDICATING THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BACK TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IS FOR THE PRECIP TO
DWINDLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS
CONTINUING TREND.
WEAK WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWFA. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO LIFT A
BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL...BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 50S NEAR CENTRAL GA. THE MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY UPON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WEAK FRONT
WILL MAKE IT.
WEAK WEDGING WILL TRY AND SET UP IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A SHARP
MAX TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT COULD REACH ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER 70S...WHILE AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT...IN THE WEDGE...WILL REMAIN THE IN UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50. AGAIN...THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON WHERE THE
WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE SET UP. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...TODAY AND
TUESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY DRY...WITH JUST
SPOTTY AREAS OF PRECIP TODAY. THE BEST PLACES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A LITTLE
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
OVERALL...JUST THINK THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SHOULD SUFFICE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SHOWING THE WORK WEEK DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
FAIRLY WARM PATTERN UNTIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE SHARP SURFACE FRONT
THE SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SEEING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS ALSO STILL HAVE ME A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
STILL INSIST ON BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM SQUEEZING OUT SOME LOW QPF PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWEST THICKNESSES REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A THE SHOT
OF COOL AIR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE HEART OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. MAINLY DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SURGING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP
OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
MAY BE APPROPRIATE.
20
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VSBYS CURRENTLY BOUNCING AROUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES. VSBYS COULD LOWER BACK DOWN TO AROUND 1/2SM AROUND
SUNRISE. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
THE NW BY MID MORNING ALSO. SPEEDS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 46 50 48 / 40 60 70 50
ATLANTA 58 49 60 55 / 40 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 53 44 48 48 / 90 60 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 52 46 56 53 / 60 60 70 60
COLUMBUS 65 58 73 59 / 40 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 59 45 48 46 / 40 60 70 60
MACON 66 56 69 57 / 20 40 40 20
ROME 49 45 57 54 / 80 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 59 51 62 56 / 40 40 40 30
VIDALIA 69 57 69 60 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
UPDATE...
NEW OBS HAVE COME IN AND ARE INDICATING THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BACK TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IS FOR THE PRECIP TO
DWINDLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS
CONTINUING TREND.
WEAK WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWFA. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO LIFT A
BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL...BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 50S NEAR CENTRAL GA. THE MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY UPON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WEAK FRONT
WILL MAKE IT.
WEAK WEDGING WILL TRY AND SET UP IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A SHARP
MAX TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT COULD REACH ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER 70S...WHILE AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT...IN THE WEDGE...WILL REMAIN THE IN UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50. AGAIN...THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON WHERE THE
WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE SET UP. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...TODAY AND
TUESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY DRY...WITH JUST
SPOTTY AREAS OF PRECIP TODAY. THE BEST PLACES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A LITTLE
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
OVERALL...JUST THINK THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SHOULD SUFFICE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SHOWING THE WORK WEEK DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
FAIRLY WARM PATTERN UNTIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE SHARP SURFACE FRONT
THE SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SEEING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS ALSO STILL HAVE ME A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
STILL INSIST ON BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM SQUEEZING OUT SOME LOW QPF PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWEST THICKNESSES REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A THE SHOT
OF COOL AIR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE HEART OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. MAINLY DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SURGING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP
OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
MAY BE APPROPRIATE.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VSBYS CURRENTLY BOUNCING AROUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES. VSBYS COULD LOWER BACK DOWN TO AROUND 1/2SM AROUND
SUNRISE. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
THE NW BY MID MORNING ALSO. SPEEDS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 46 50 48 / 40 60 70 50
ATLANTA 58 49 60 55 / 40 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 53 44 48 48 / 90 60 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 52 46 56 53 / 60 60 70 60
COLUMBUS 65 58 73 59 / 40 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 59 45 48 46 / 40 60 70 60
MACON 66 56 69 57 / 20 40 40 20
ROME 49 45 57 54 / 80 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 59 51 62 56 / 40 40 40 30
VIDALIA 69 57 69 60 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
NEW OBS HAVE COME IN AND ARE INDICATING THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. GOING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BACK TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IS FOR THE PRECIP TO
DWINDLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS
CONTINUING TREND.
WEAK WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWFA. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO LIFT A
BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL...BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 50S NEAR CENTRAL GA. THE MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY UPON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WEAK FRONT
WILL MAKE IT.
WEAK WEDGING WILL TRY AND SET UP IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A SHARP
MAX TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT COULD REACH ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER 70S...WHILE AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT...IN THE WEDGE...WILL REMAIN THE IN UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50. AGAIN...THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON WHERE THE
WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE SET UP. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...TODAY AND
TUESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY DRY...WITH JUST
SPOTTY AREAS OF PRECIP TODAY. THE BEST PLACES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A LITTLE
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
OVERALL...JUST THINK THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SHOULD SUFFICE.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SHOWING THE WORK WEEK DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
FAIRLY WARM PATTERN UNTIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE SHARP SURFACE FRONT
THE SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SEEING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS ALSO STILL HAVE ME A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
STILL INSIST ON BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM SQUEEZING OUT SOME LOW QPF PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWEST THICKNESSES REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A THE SHOT
OF COOL AIR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE HEART OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. MAINLY DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SURGING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP
OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
MAY BE APPROPRIATE.
20
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST MID
MORNING...WHEN A WEAK FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN GA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FROPA...SO HAVE REMOVED
THE PROB30 FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT CIGS TO GO
BACK BELOW 010 AFTER DARK. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH THE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH OVERHEAD. GENERALLY...WINDS
SHOULD TRY TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...A SWITCH TO THE NE IS POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 46 50 48 / 40 60 70 50
ATLANTA 58 49 60 55 / 40 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 53 44 48 48 / 90 60 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 52 46 56 53 / 60 60 70 60
COLUMBUS 65 58 73 59 / 40 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 59 45 48 46 / 40 60 70 60
MACON 66 56 69 57 / 20 40 40 20
ROME 49 45 57 54 / 80 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 59 51 62 56 / 40 40 40 30
VIDALIA 69 57 69 60 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BACK TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE TREND FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IS FOR THE PRECIP TO
DWINDLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THIS
CONTINUING TREND.
WEAK WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CWFA. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO LIFT A
BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL...BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 50S NEAR CENTRAL GA. THE MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY UPON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WEAK FRONT
WILL MAKE IT.
WEAK WEDGING WILL TRY AND SET UP IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A SHARP
MAX TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT COULD REACH ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER 70S...WHILE AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT...IN THE WEDGE...WILL REMAIN THE IN UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50. AGAIN...THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON WHERE THE
WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE SET UP. THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...TODAY AND
TUESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY DRY...WITH JUST
SPOTTY AREAS OF PRECIP TODAY. THE BEST PLACES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A LITTLE
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
OVERALL...JUST THINK THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SHOULD SUFFICE.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SHOWING THE WORK WEEK DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN A
FAIRLY WARM PATTERN UNTIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE SHARP SURFACE FRONT
THE SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SEEING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS ALSO STILL HAVE ME A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO
STILL INSIST ON BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM SQUEEZING OUT SOME LOW QPF PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWEST THICKNESSES REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERY INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A THE SHOT
OF COOL AIR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE HEART OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. MAINLY DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SURGING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP
OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS
MAY BE APPROPRIATE.
20
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST MID
MORNING...WHEN A WEAK FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN GA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FROPA...SO HAVE REMOVED
THE PROB30 FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT CIGS TO GO
BACK BELOW 010 AFTER DARK. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH THE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH OVERHEAD. GENERALLY...WINDS
SHOULD TRY TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...A SWITCH TO THE NE IS POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 46 50 48 / 40 60 70 50
ATLANTA 58 49 60 55 / 40 60 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 53 44 48 48 / 90 60 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 52 46 56 53 / 60 60 70 60
COLUMBUS 65 58 73 59 / 40 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 59 45 48 46 / 40 60 70 60
MACON 66 56 69 57 / 20 40 40 20
ROME 49 45 57 54 / 80 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 59 51 62 56 / 40 40 40 30
VIDALIA 69 57 69 60 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1231 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015/
EVENING UPDATE...
AREA WINDS ARE SWINGING AROUND MORE SOUTHERLY NOW AND HELPING TO
ERODE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOL WEDGE. THIS HAS WARRANTED BUMPING UP
THE EXPECTED LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES OR MORE. OTHERWISE... STILL
EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN... DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPS
AT THIS TIME. /39
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015/
WEDGE HOLDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING EASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAIN SATURATED AND SHOULD HAVE LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME FOG/DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OBVIOUS FEATURES TO KEY IN ON...BUT RAIN
COMING ACROSS AL INTO NORTH GA MAY BE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE SO HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW GOES MOSTLY
ZONAL TO WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS KEEPS THE
NORTH IN A ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK WAVES SO HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS NORTH...DECREASING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TRIED
TO ADJUST FOR THIS. AT LEAST NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.
41
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015/
START TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEDGE IN PLACE SO HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NE BELOW GUIDANCE. STILL LOOKING AT A
SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST SOLUTION AND THE NAM THE SLOWEST. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED
UP POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH SINCE GUIDANCE IS VERY SLOW WITH PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG /JUST SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY/.
NOT QUITE AS MUCH AREA WITH 40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH BRINGING IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE
CONTINUING PRECIPITATION. STILL THINK TEMPS MAY BE A BIT ON THE
COOLER SIDE SO HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT...BUT THIS STILL LEAVES
SOME LOW TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. BUFR
SOUNDING AT KCHA SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLEET AND THEN SNOW BY 12Z THURSDAY AS THE
COLUMN COOLS. THE BUFR SOUNDING AT BRASSTOWN IS SIMILAR BUT
SLIGHTLY DELAYED AND KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INTO MID
THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS AND SURFACE TEMPS...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND MENTIONED SNOW/SLEET LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY THE NW. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY AS THE GFS BUFR SOUNDING EVEN HINTS
AT BRINGING SOME FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET INTO THE
METRO AREA THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TOO WARM TO
MENTION IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN THE GRIDS YET...BUT AGAIN SOMETHING
THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OUT BY FRIDAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
GFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM PATTERN
STILL APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVES EJECTING FROM THE DEEP TROUGH. HOWEVER THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
FORCING AND THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE TIMING ANY OF THESE
TRANSIENT MID/UPPER FEATURES LEADS ME TO KEEP POPS CHANCE AT BEST
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. STRONG SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY IS WANING SOME AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN BUT IS HIGH ENOUGH
WHEN COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS TO KEEP US
ON OUR TOES FOR AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION RIGHT NOW. GFS...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO BRING IN FAIRLY COLD AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE KEEPING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING AND
FILLING SOME AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH I AM STILL A BIT LEARY THAT THE
BEST COLD AIR WILL MAKE TOO BIG OF AN INTRUSION INTO THE AREA VS
GETTING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. I HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF THE PAST FEW RUNS AND AM INCLINED TO
CONTINUE THAT TREND IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS
ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND IN FLATTENING THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST MID
MORNING...WHEN A WEAK FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN GA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FROPA...SO HAVE REMOVED
THE PROB30 FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO EXPECT CIGS TO GO
BACK BELOW 010 AFTER DARK. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH THE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH OVERHEAD. GENERALLY...WINDS
SHOULD TRY TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...A SWITCH TO THE NE IS POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 61 46 52 51 / 30 50 50 40
ATLANTA 55 45 61 56 / 30 50 40 40
BLAIRSVILLE 55 42 50 46 / 60 50 60 60
CARTERSVILLE 50 42 59 53 / 50 40 50 50
COLUMBUS 61 50 74 59 / 30 30 30 20
GAINESVILLE 52 43 50 49 / 40 50 60 50
MACON 61 53 70 58 / 20 30 30 20
ROME 50 42 61 54 / 60 40 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 55 47 65 56 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 65 56 71 60 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
819 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
818 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND COLDER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RATE OF COOLING WILL INCREASE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO
EXPECTED LOWS BY DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SCATTERED
IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE OVER IN ITS PLACE SO
ANY CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY.
MDB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT BAGGY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND USHER IN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR MASS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE INTO THE EARLY-MID EVENING ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS HANGING
AROUND AND LIKELY RESULTING IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS AND HAVE GONE A
BIT ABOVE HOURLY GUIDANCE TEMPS HANGING ONTO 30S INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE BOTTOM DROPS OUT LATE TONIGHT.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING SKIES TO GO CLEAR.
A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LOOK TO BE ON TAP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS POTENTIAL TO GIVE
CHICAGO`S RECORD LOW A RUN FOR ITS MONEY...THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD BE RATHER EXTENSIVE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP A BIT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR FULL FRIGID POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY LATE
NIGHT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR LAST MINUTE DROPS IN TEMPS. ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BE NEAR BY THURSDAY WITH HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS COULD THREATEN
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS. FULL SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH LOWER ALBEDO IN
CHICAGO AND RFD METRO AREAS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHS EVER SO SLIGHTLY UPWARD.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
247 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS THAT SEE TEMPERATURES
CRASH DURING THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH. HIGH DOES SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OFF AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND DID
REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH A TREND TO
NORMAL AND THEN POTENTIALLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG MARCH SUN AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THIS WEEKEND
DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHIPPING AWAY AT THE
DEEP SNOW PACK/GLACIER THAT HAS BLANKETED THE REGION SINCE THE EARLY
FEBRUARY BLIZZARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...THE QUICKER THE SNOW PACK MELTS THE WARMER
TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS A MEAN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OF
THE NATION`S MID SECTION.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890) 12 (1901)
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT BCMG VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING.
* NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL...AND HAS PASSED
THROUGH RFD. EXPECTING OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT THEN GUSTS DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS EXTEND
BACK THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SO VERY CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. EXPECTING CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
GUSTING TO 20 KT BY MID MORNING AND THEN TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS LOOK RATHER DIURNAL AND THEY DISSIPATE IN THE
EVENING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHEN CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUNDAY...SCHC RAIN OR SNOW OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS PSBL.
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL MERGE WITH
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING WESTERLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RETURNING
COLD AIR...WINDS TO 30KT LOOKS REASONABLE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BACK TO 30KT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
708 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
01z/7pm surface analysis shows cold front approaching the I-57
corridor, with light rain ongoing well ahead of the boundary
across southeast Illinois. Front is expected to settle southward
toward the Ohio River overnight, while several weak upper-level
impulses ride northeastward along it. This will keep precip going
across the SE KILX CWA throughout the night. Further north, there
will be a lull early this evening before an approaching wave
spreads light precip back northward toward the I-72 corridor from
late evening into the overnight hours. Based on the latest Rapid
Refresh forecast soundings, it appears the main precip type will
be rain through 03z, then the rain will gradually mix with
snow/sleet from northwest to southeast overnight. Areas across the
far southeast around Lawrenceville likely will not see any
snow/sleet until after 09z. End result will be some light wintry
precip along and south of a Jacksonville...to Decatur...to
Danville line later tonight. Will only mention flurries along the
northern edge of the precip area. Further south, may see a couple
tenths of snow/sleet accumulation closer to the I-70 corridor
overnight. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Freezing rain and sleet developed over western Illinois around
midnight and quickly tracked east over all but extreme southeast
Illinois by 08z/2am. Already seeing the back edge of our second
band of wintry precip entering west central Illinois, so it appears
we will have a brief lull in the freezing rain and sleet. However,
the latest HRRR suggests another band of rain, freezing rain and
sleet will move northeast across our area at or just after dawn
Rainfall rates have not been much with these quick moving bands
of freezing rain/sleet with most areas seeing less than 0.05" per
hour, but certainly enough for some light icing to occur on bridge
decks and overpasses and on lesser traveled roads.
RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest temperatures will rise
above the freezing mark over southeast Illinois by dawn...central
sections of the forecast area by 900 am...and between 10 am and Noon
roughly along and north of the Interstate 74 corridor. By late
morning into the afternoon hours the stronger lift associated with
the low level warm advection/ isentropic ascent shifts off to our
east and southeast with a gradual lowering of POPs warranted from
northwest to southeast. Best 850-700 forcing edges into southeast IL
by mid to late afternoon where our highest POPs will be located.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable for this afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
The cold front currently passing through the forecast area will
stall out south of the Ohio River Valley early Wednesday as it
becomes parallel to the upper-level flow. A 180+ kt jet streak will
be in our vicinity on the cool side of this front/low level
baroclinic zone for much of the day Wednesday. A very small portion
of our forecast area south of I-70 will be at least nicked by the
good frontogenetical forcing/jet dynamics in this flow regime. With
this in mind it is looking like 2-4 inches of snow will fall late
tonight through Wednesday evening across at least Clay, Richland,
and Lawrence counties. There is some model disagreement on where the
axis of heavier snow will set up, and the snow totals may need to
be boosted a little and pushed further north or decreased and pulled
further south depending on future model runs.
The snow threat in southeast IL diminishes later Wednesday night, as
the current system finally pulls away, and another Arctic high
(hopefully the last of the winter) builds into the entire forecast
area. This high will be accompanied by a couple nights of mainly
single digit lows Wednesday night and Thursday night, and highs
mainly in the teens for Thursday.
Temperatures are still expected to gradually moderate beginning
Friday and continuing into next week. High temperatures may actually
be above normal for a change by early next week, with highs in the
50s possible by next Tuesday. The models do not suggest the passage
of any significant system from Thursday-Tuesday, so predominantly
dry weather looks to be the rule through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Ceilings have been slowly improving over the past couple of hours:
however, latest obs still show IFR conditions at KSPI, KDEC, and
KCMI. Think these sites will climb to MVFR between 01z and 04z.
Satellite imagery shows plenty of cloud cover extending westward
across Iowa, with the nearest clearing across Minnesota and far
northwest Iowa. Based on Rapid Refresh 925mb RH profiles, think
MVFR ceilings will hold firm through much of the night, with
ceilings rising to VFR at KPIA by 11z, then further east to KCMI
by 14z. Even when the lower clouds dissipate, a mid-level cloud
deck at 12000-15000ft will remain as low pressure tracks along a
frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River. Any associated
precip will remain south of the central Illinois terminals,
although overcast conditions will persist through the entire 00z
TAF period. Winds will initially be from the west at around 10kt
this evening, then will become northwesterly with gusts to between
15 and 20kt overnight into Wednesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
445 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLIER IN THE SHIFT FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND SOME
FORM OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. IT COULD
BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF WET SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE TRANSITION
BEGINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE MODELS A SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION. WE ARE COMING OUT OF A PRETTY COLD AIR
MASS..AND DEWPOINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING NOT VERY CLOSE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AREA WIDE.
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES COUPLED
WITH A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE WOULD SUGGEST MODEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THIS TIME WHEN
THE LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) TEMPERATURES ARE HEADING ABOVE
FREEZING. SOME OF THE RECENT NAM/GFS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE FOR THIS PERIOD SUGGESTING THAT SNOW/SLEET MAY
DOMINATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH
TOWARD WISCONSIN... AND IF PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE A BIT
HEAVIER THIS MAY SLOW THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. BUT THE SIGNAL IS
STILL THERE FOR A SNOW-SLEET-FZRA TRANSITION AND ICE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL.
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IS IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW FAR NORTH THE IMPACTS ARE FELT. ICE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LEAST NORTH TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND IN THE
ROCKFORD AREA WHERE IT MAY JUST BE AN ALL SNOW/SLEET SITUATION
WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE TECHNICALLY SATISFIED. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE RUSH-HOUR TIME...FEEL IT IS THE SAFER CALL
WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET AS WELL. AND IN NW INDIANA...THE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED HERE WHERE THERE IS HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT IT WILL BE A RACE AGAINST SURFACE TEMPS
AS WELL WHICH LOOK TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/GEM ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SNOW/SLEET SOLUTION IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION TIME FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF I-80 WILL OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK BASED ON THE NAM AND
EARLY LOOKS AT THE RAP CLOSE TO THAT TIME FRAME. IT WOULD LIKELY
BE AFTER 6-7 AM WHEN THAT TRANSITION OCCURS IN THE METRO
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT TIMING IS NOT SUPER HIGH.
WHILE WE ARE LOSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE
GETTING SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
US TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE A
SNOW-RAIN MIX IN THE NW...LIKELY RAIN IN THE SE...WITH EVEN SOME
-SN/DZ/FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT COLDER
CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BOTTOMING OUT AT OR BELOW ZERO. WITH THE HIGH STILL TO THE
EAST...WIND CHILLS...YES WE ARE STILL DISCUSSING WIND CHILLS IN
EARLY MARCH...GET DOWN TO -10 TO -20 BELOW. A CLIMATE SECTION TO
THE AFD WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY COLD AS A 1040 MB ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND -18 CELSIUS...THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...FOLLOWING A BITTERLY COLD AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL BE
A PROGRESSIVE HIT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY RECOVER BY FRIDAY AS A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE
DEEPER COLD WILL BE AIMED TO OUR NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALSO APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
417 PM CST
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED ORBROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOPPING SOUTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
* SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR IN PRECIP.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
MORNING. SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND CHANGING OVER TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
ABOUT A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY
11 UTC THROUGH 13 TO 15 UTC. DURING THIS PERIOD IFR VIS IN SNOW AND
LOWERING CIGS ARE LIKELY. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE
IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES DURING THE MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
BEGINS TO CHANGE THE SNOW AND SLEET OVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE ON A WARMING TREND DURING THE
MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...SO ANY
LINGERING PRECIP AFTER THIS TIME WILL LIKELY NO LONGER PRODUCE A
FREEZING THREAT.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING/TREND EARLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM IN
CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND BE ABSORBED BY STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30 KTS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GALE GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING FREQUENCY IS LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. BUT AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...3
AM TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
418 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLIER IN THE SHIFT FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND SOME
FORM OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. IT COULD
BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF WET SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE TRANSITION
BEGINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE MODELS A SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION. WE ARE COMING OUT OF A PRETTY COLD AIR
MASS..AND DEWPOINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING NOT VERY CLOSE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AREA WIDE.
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES COUPLED
WITH A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE WOULD SUGGEST MODEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THIS TIME WHEN
THE LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) TEMPERATURES ARE HEADING ABOVE
FREEZING. SOME OF THE RECENT NAM/GFS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE FOR THIS PERIOD SUGGESTING THAT SNOW/SLEET MAY
DOMINATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH
TOWARD WISCONSIN... AND IF PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE A BIT
HEAVIER THIS MAY SLOW THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. BUT THE SIGNAL IS
STILL THERE FOR A SNOW-SLEET-FZRA TRANSITION AND ICE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL.
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IS IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW FAR NORTH THE IMPACTS ARE FELT. ICE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LEAST NORTH TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND IN THE
ROCKFORD AREA WHERE IT MAY JUST BE AN ALL SNOW/SLEET SITUATION
WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE TECHNICALLY SATISFIED. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE RUSH-HOUR TIME...FEEL IT IS THE SAFER CALL
WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET AS WELL. AND IN NW INDIANA...THE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED HERE WHERE THERE IS HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT IT WILL BE A RACE AGAINST SURFACE TEMPS
AS WELL WHICH LOOK TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/GEM ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SNOW/SLEET SOLUTION IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION TIME FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF I-80 WILL OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK BASED ON THE NAM AND
EARLY LOOKS AT THE RAP CLOSE TO THAT TIME FRAME. IT WOULD LIKELY
BE AFTER 6-7 AM WHEN THAT TRANSITION OCCURS IN THE METRO
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT TIMING IS NOT SUPER HIGH.
WHILE WE ARE LOSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE
GETTING SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
US TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE A
SNOW-RAIN MIX IN THE NW...LIKELY RAIN IN THE SE...WITH EVEN SOME
-SN/DZ/FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT COLDER
CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BOTTOMING OUT AT OR BELOW ZERO. WITH THE HIGH STILL TO THE
EAST...WIND CHILLS...YES WE ARE STILL DISCUSSING WIND CHILLS IN
EARLY MARCH...GET DOWN TO -10 TO -20 BELOW. A CLIMATE SECTION TO
THE AFD WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY COLD AS A 1040 MB ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND -18 CELSIUS...THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...FOLLOWING A BITTERLY COLD AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL BE
A PROGRESSIVE HIT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY RECOVER BY FRIDAY AS A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE
DEEPER COLD WILL BE AIMED TO OUR NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALSO APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KJB
&&
.CLIMATE...
417 PM CST
A FEW RECORD LOW AND AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO. THE ONES THAT
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO BE REACHED ORBROKEN HAVE A STAR (*) NEXT TO
THEM.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890)* 12 (1901)
KMD/KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOPPING SOUTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
* SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR IN PRECIP.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
MORNING. SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND CHANGING OVER TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
ABOUT A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY
11 UTC THROUGH 13 TO 15 UTC. DURING THIS PERIOD IFR VIS IN SNOW AND
LOWERING CIGS ARE LIKELY. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE
IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES DURING THE MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
BEGINS TO CHANGE THE SNOW AND SLEET OVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE ON A WARMING TREND DURING THE
MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...SO ANY
LINGERING PRECIP AFTER THIS TIME WILL LIKELY NO LONGER PRODUCE A
FREEZING THREAT.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING/TREND EARLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM IN
CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND BE ABSORBED BY STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30 KTS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GALE GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING FREQUENCY IS LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. BUT AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...3
AM TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
323 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLIER IN THE SHIFT FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND SOME
FORM OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. IT COULD
BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF WET SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE TRANSITION
BEGINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE MODELS A SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION. WE ARE COMING OUT OF A PRETTY COLD AIR
MASS..AND DEWPOINTS ARE STILL VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING NOT VERY CLOSE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AREA WIDE.
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES COUPLED
WITH A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE WOULD SUGGEST MODEST PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THIS TIME WHEN
THE LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) TEMPERATURES ARE HEADING ABOVE
FREEZING. SOME OF THE RECENT NAM/GFS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
THERMAL PROFILE FOR THIS PERIOD SUGGESTING THAT SNOW/SLEET MAY
DOMINATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH
TOWARD WISCONSIN... AND IF PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE A BIT
HEAVIER THIS MAY SLOW THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. BUT THE SIGNAL IS
STILL THERE FOR A SNOW-SLEET-FZRA TRANSITION AND ICE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL.
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IS IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW FAR NORTH THE IMPACTS ARE FELT. ICE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LEAST NORTH TOWARDS WISCONSIN AND IN THE
ROCKFORD AREA WHERE IT MAY JUST BE AN ALL SNOW/SLEET SITUATION
WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE TECHNICALLY SATISFIED. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE RUSH-HOUR TIME...FEEL IT IS THE SAFER CALL
WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET AS WELL. AND IN NW INDIANA...THE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED HERE WHERE THERE IS HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT IT WILL BE A RACE AGAINST SURFACE TEMPS
AS WELL WHICH LOOK TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/GEM ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SNOW/SLEET SOLUTION IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION TIME FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF I-80 WILL OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK BASED ON THE NAM AND
EARLY LOOKS AT THE RAP CLOSE TO THAT TIME FRAME. IT WOULD LIKELY
BE AFTER 6-7 AM WHEN THAT TRANSITION OCCURS IN THE METRO
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT TIMING IS NOT SUPER HIGH.
WHILE WE ARE LOSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...WE ARE
GETTING SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
US TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE A
SNOW-RAIN MIX IN THE NW...LIKELY RAIN IN THE SE...WITH EVEN SOME
-SN/DZ/FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT COLDER
CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BOTTOMING OUT AT OR BELOW ZERO. WITH THE HIGH STILL TO THE
EAST...WIND CHILLS...YES WE ARE STILL DISCUSSING WIND CHILLS IN
EARLY MARCH...GET DOWN TO -10 TO -20 BELOW. A CLIMATE SECTION TO
THE AFD WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 PM CST
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY COLD AS A 1040 MB ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND -18 CELSIUS...THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...FOLLOWING A BITTERLY COLD AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL BE
A PROGRESSIVE HIT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY RECOVER BY FRIDAY AS A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE
DEEPER COLD WILL BE AIMED TO OUR NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALSO APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOPPING SOUTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY 20-25 KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
* SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR IN PRECIP.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE PROBLEMATIC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
MORNING. SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND CHANGING OVER TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
ABOUT A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY
11 UTC THROUGH 13 TO 15 UTC. DURING THIS PERIOD IFR VIS IN SNOW AND
LOWERING CIGS ARE LIKELY. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE
IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES DURING THE MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
BEGINS TO CHANGE THE SNOW AND SLEET OVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE ON A WARMING TREND DURING THE
MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...SO ANY
LINGERING PRECIP AFTER THIS TIME WILL LIKELY NO LONGER PRODUCE A
FREEZING THREAT.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING/TREND EARLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM IN
CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND BE ABSORBED BY STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30 KTS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GALE GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING FREQUENCY IS LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. BUT AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...3
AM TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
543 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
06-08Z WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25KT. THE SNOW
WILL THEN TAPER TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY 15-18Z AS THE
UPWARD LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS DECREASES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 24 7 38 / 80 80 10 0
GCK 15 24 6 38 / 60 60 10 0
EHA 16 23 10 39 / 70 70 10 0
LBL 17 24 9 38 / 80 80 10 0
HYS 15 28 6 40 / 50 50 0 0
P28 19 25 9 39 / 80 80 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.
A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.
BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 45 15 27 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 32 42 13 25 / 10 10 30 20
EHA 34 46 15 25 / 10 10 50 20
LBL 33 50 16 26 / 10 10 50 20
HYS 31 41 12 27 / 10 10 30 10
P28 30 49 18 29 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
143 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A LITTLE OR HOLD STEADY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH EARLIEST
IN THE DAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE FALLING BACK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT OVERLY MOIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS DURING THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
MOISTEN UP SOMEWHAT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 45 15 28 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 32 42 13 26 / 10 10 30 20
EHA 34 46 15 26 / 10 10 30 20
LBL 33 50 16 27 / 10 10 30 20
HYS 31 41 12 28 / 10 10 30 10
P28 30 49 18 30 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1115 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
AT 12Z MONDAY A 500MB TROUGH/LOW WAS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A +110KT 250MB JET STREAK LOCATED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT AT THE 700MB TO
500MB LEVEL. AT THE 850MB LEVEL A WEDGE OF -6C TO -7C TEMPERATURES
WAS LOCATED FROM AMARILLO TO DODGE CITY TO NORTH PLATE. A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE SURFACE TO 850MB LEVEL WAS ADVECTING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW CLOUDS HAD BEEN
SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A STRONG RIDGING UPPER JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY, INTENSIFYING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
CREATING A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMUP MAY BE
IMPEDED BY INCREASING STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY THE NMM/ARW AND THE NAM ALL
SHOW SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF A TRACE TO 0.01" QPF THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THIS MIGHT INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS THERMODYNAMIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE DRY LAYERS IN THE MID LEVELS
AND NEAR THE GROUND WHICH ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO GETTING
HYDROMETEORS TO THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE LIKELY
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
LIKELY IMPEDE INSOLATION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT ON THE LOWER PLAINS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
HOWEVER, WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A LITTLE OR HOLD STEADY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH EARLIEST
IN THE DAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE FALLING BACK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT OVERLY MOIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS DURING THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
MOISTEN UP SOMEWHAT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. DENSE FOG ALSO IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE 0-1KM MEAN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE MILE HOWEVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AFTER
00Z TUESDAY AT GCK AND DDC AND AFTER 03Z AT HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 32 42 15 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 37 30 38 13 / 10 10 10 30
EHA 41 35 44 15 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 40 30 45 16 / 10 10 10 30
HYS 34 31 37 12 / 10 10 10 30
P28 36 33 46 18 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.
DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.
PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
405 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS THIS EVENING AND THEN MUCH COLDER.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON PER THE RADAR. ANOTHER ROUND
SETTING UP AND WILL DIVE SE W/THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM AND RAP MODEL DOING WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW MATCHING UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS. LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING ATTM ESPECIALLY FROM 850-700MBS(7.0 C/KM).
THIS COMBINED W/DECENT SHEAR AT 0-3KM OF 35 KTS AND FORECAST CAPE
80+ JOULES WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME MORE SQUALLS GOING. 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTED THE MODEL SOUNDINGS W/DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH 700MBS. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE FROM THE ST.
JOHN VALLEY DOWN THROUGH CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE DOWN INTO HOULTON.
ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IS FORECAST TO DROP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE INCLUDING THE MILLINOCKET-PATTEN
AREA ALONG ROUTE 11 AND PORTIONS OF I-95. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW BURSTS
W/WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BRIEF WHITEOUTS AND VSBY 1/4
OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
EVENING AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE COAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AT 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD W/GUSTS AT LEAST 30 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED
W/THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE WIND CHILLS
STAY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20F.
FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS IS EXPLAINED MORE IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW
PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THINK THAT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
AREAS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT, PERHAPS ENDING AS JUST A BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST. LOOKING FOR ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE LOOKING FOR
A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE, AND EVEN IN THE LOW 40S DOWNEAST. THE WARMTH IS
SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR STORMS, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW WEAK ONES BEYOND FRIDAY AFTER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. TOO MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT TO TIME THE
WEAK SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO TUESDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING AS SOME SNOW SQUALLS COULD
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY TO MVFR/IFR MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: IFR OR WORSE AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW.
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
CAA HITS THE WATERS AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUST POTENTIAL
IS POSSIBLE FOR GUSTS TO 40 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
TO SCA LEVELS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCA LOOKS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE COMING UP
BUT AT LEAST A FOOT UNDER WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. STAYED
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THOSE WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING W/A RANGE OF 5 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT AND THEN COMING DOWN ON
TUESDAY. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING
RIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING W/SOME MODERATE ICE ACCRETION.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST
AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 9 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MEZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...MADE AREAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS USING THE RADAR & THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL
SHOWING AN AREA SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES W/DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS. FORECAST
CAPE HAS INCREASE TO 100+ JOULES SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE W/WIND
GUSTS OF 35 MPH & VBSY 004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY MON MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE MARITIMES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DOWN EAST REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE
AREA BY 10Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL PICK UP THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT SOME SPOTS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST MAY PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORIES BUT SUSPECT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM DOWN EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO RAISE THE HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES S OF THE REGION RIDGING
ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CAP ANY FURTHER PROGRESSION OF
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS HIT THE MID/UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST CLOSED IN
AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET BUT W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN, ANY FURTHER DROP WILL BE SLOW OR EVEN READINGS
LEVELING OFF ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF QUICKER AS INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD IS
THIN PER THE OBS. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
RAP AND HRRR 3KM DOING WELL PER THE RADAR TRENDS AND METARS. THIS
SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW SETTING UP LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, PULLED BACK ON THE TIMING BY A FEW HRS. LOW
PRES MOVING E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST LATER TONIGHT W/AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP FOR A TIME ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. SOME FORCING IS
THERE AND W/TEH LLVL CONVERGENCE, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW WHERE RATIOS OF 15-20:1 COULD BE REALIZED W/2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM 06-12Z. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COAST
AND GIVEN THE 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS SHOWN, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. THIS WAS COORDINATED W/GYX. FURTHER N
AND W, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER
W/A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.
FOR MONDAY, SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY ACROSS THE W AND
DOWNEAST REGION WHILE EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN SECTION OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WILL HANG ON TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THROUGH 10 AM
OR SO. THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FOR THE
SNOW W/A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES(6/5-7.0C/KM) AT
850-700MBS AND FORECAST CAPE OF 70+ JOULES. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION W/AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWED 2
AREAS OF SQUALL POTENTIAL W/ONE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AND THE SECOND AREA ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFTER 19Z(2 PM). A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED W/THE SQUALLS ALONG W/WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THIS SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED A
WEEK AGO(2/23)WHERE MOIST OFF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE COMBINED W/THE
FRONT AIDING IN SOME HEFTY SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AND WAA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO CONSALL QPF WHICH RESULTS IN
A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR DOWNEAST...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL COMPACT OR MELT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR TO
LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB MIDDAY MONDAY W/THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS GOING FROM IFR TO MVFR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: PER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/A GALE WARNING
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. NW WINDS W/CAA WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
HIT 25 TO 30 W/GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL AND STAYED CLOSE TO IT.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR OUR
COASTAL MARINE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS
CROSSES THE AREA...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY ENDED AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD
AT BANGOR AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE RECORD COLD MONTH IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MCW/BERDES
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA.
FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST ARE A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE SRN STREAM TROF
OVER CA/NV...IN PARTICULAR THE SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CA/SRN NV WHERE
CONVECTION IS NOTED. THESE TWO WAVES WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOW TO THE AREA TUE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SUNSHINE WORKING ON THE FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. COOLEST
CONDITIONS (AROUND 20F) ARE OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
850MB THERMAL TROF...AND AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE/ICE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES
REMAINING UNPHASED AS THEY AFFECT THE AREA TUE. THE SRN WAVE WILL
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE SW INTO THE DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW...AND IT
WILL BE THE DRIVER OF THE SNOW THAT SPREADS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IT
APPEARS 1 MAIN STREAK OF PCPN OR AT LEAST MORE ORGANIZED/HEAVIER
PCPN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE SW. THIS PCPN WILL STREAK NE ACROSS
SD INTO CNTRL MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE/ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT EXIT OF 150KT JET
TRANSLATING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 125KT
JET STREAK OVER ND INTO NRN ONTARIO. MORE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO GET
ORGANIZED FARTHER E LATE IN THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
BROADER WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGIN TO SATURATE DRIER AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN TIMING THE PCPN INTO
WRN AND SRN UPPER MI IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME...AND STARTING ACROSS
THE N AND E AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SO...LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WILL
BE REQUIRED WITH ONSET TIMING. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 12Z.
ON TUE...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS NE ACROSS NE MN/WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN WILL QUICKLY EXPAND/INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS AIR MASS SATURATES AND DEEP LAYER FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. ON THE 285K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB)...MIXING
RATIOS AROUND 2.5G/KG ARE AVBL...SUGGESTING SOMETHING AROUND 3
INCHES OF SNOW FOR 6-9HRS OF ASCENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OTHER
FACTORS AT PLAY...A WIDESPREAD FAIRLY UNIFORM 3-5 INCH SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TUE...WHICH FALLS NICELY INLINE
WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF NUMBERS FROM THE MODELS CONVERTED TO SNOW
USING A 15 TO 1 OR SO SNOW RATIO. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR SEVERAL HRS AND AIR MASS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BOOST TO SNOW TOTALS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH ICE COVER WILL LIMIT THE
ENHANCEMENT OVER WHAT IT COULD BE. THAT AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO 5 INCHES THAN 3...AND NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS E TUE AFTN...RESULTING IN SNOW RAPIDLY DIMINISHING W TO E
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN HRS. IN FACT...IT MAY END COMPLETELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTN. WITH SNOW RATIO LIKELY
UNDER 20 TO 1...THIS SYSTEM WILL ACHIEVE THE WETTER SNOW TYPE ADVY
CRITERIA OF AN AVG SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST 3IN/12HR OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. SO...ADVY WILL BE HOISTED ACROSS THE BOARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION QUICKLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THEN...AS COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND -11C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
TO -26C AT 18Z WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATER. THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION FOR
THE LAKE EFFECT FORECAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL LARGER
AREAS OF OPEN WATER AND SLUSH OVER WESTERN...NORTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THOSE AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN REPRESENTED
IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT...SO I DON/T FEEL THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IN THE QPF FIELDS.
THUS...HAVE PERFORMED SIGNIFICANT HAND EDITS TO THE GRIDS...BOTH IN
RAISING POPS AND HIGHLIGHTING AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE CURRENT OPEN
WATER AREAS. WITH THE STRONG WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THOSE AREAS OF OPEN WATER WILL LIKELY EXPAND
AND MOVE...SO THAT DOES INCREASE THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SOME...BUT EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR...THINK THE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE
ICE COVER EXPANDING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE LAKE
EFFECT WON/T BE TOO STRONG INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUD WILL
BE WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO A FLUFFY INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 7-9KFT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SUPPORT MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY EVEN
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...SNOWFLAKE SIZE SHOULD BE SMALL AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUPLE INCH RANGE FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AREAS DOWNWIND
OF THE OPEN WATER. IN ADDITION...RECENT SNOWFALL AND THE STRONG
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE FINE FLAKED LAKE EFFECT SNOW...THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE AND IN THE STRONGER BANDS
LIKELY BELOW 1/2MI. FORTUNATELY...WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF THE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST...THE IMPACT FOR AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE IN THE AREAS TO THE EAST OF MUNISING AND GENERALLY LESS
POPULATED AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING WINDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE (LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS). A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A GRADUALLY DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD WHILE FOLLOWING THE WIND DIRECTIONS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO TURN A LITTLE
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (INTO THE LOWER
30S). BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE IS LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE MODELS HANDLE A COUPLE WAVES COMING ON
SHORE IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE 12Z GFS/GEM SLIDE THE WAVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE
WAVES BECOMING SEPARATED AND SPLITTING THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EITHER WAY WITH THE LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL
ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LIKELY PULLING IN THE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR A
WHILE THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THEN WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH AND A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS...SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORMAL SNOW BELTS. WITH THE FAVORABLE
850MB TEMPS (AROUND -14 TO -18C MONDAY)...WILL TREND POPS UP TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCES FOR NOW UNTIL WE ARE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE ICE SITUATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND ALASKA FOR THE LAST MONTH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND START MELTING SOME OF THE
SNOWPACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATE TONIGHT...SW
FLOW BTWN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL BRING A
RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW DEVELOPMENT. AS
THE SNOW SPREADS NE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD AROUND
09Z AND AT KCMX/KSAW AROUND 12Z. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME S
AND RAMP UP TONIGHT AND TUE TO 15-25KT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
LO PRES TROF. ONCE THE TROF PASSES TO THE E TUE NIGHT...TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
NW GALES INTO WED...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER
WED...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND
94 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER
NAMERICA WITH ARCTIC BRANCH TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
GREAT LKS. SHRTWV/AREA OF SOME LO/MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MSTR
BTWN H9 AND H7 SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ARE PASSING THRU UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG. IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD NW LLVL FLOW E OF HI PRES
RDG SHIFTING INTO MN THAT IS ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -18C TO
-19C INTO THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED SN SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING UPR MI
DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP. THE MOST NMRS SN SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE OVER THE W TO THE S OF HOUGHTON AND OVER ALGER
COUNTY...LOCATIONS THAT ARE DOWNWIND OF WIDER BREAKS IN THE ICE
COVER OVER WRN LK SUP NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD/E OF THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA AND OVER AN AREA TO THE E OF THE KEWEENAW. LOOKING TO THE
NW...THERE IS A SHRTWV RDG WITHIN THE ARCTIC BRANCH MOVING E OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA SUPPORTING THE SFC HI MOVING INTO MN. 12HR H5 HGT
RISES UP TO 100-120M HAVE BEEN OBSVD UNDER THE NVA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH...THERE IS A CUTOFF LO MOVING OFF THE
PACIFIC INTO SRN CA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS INTO THIS MRNG
AND THEN ANTICIPATED CLRG WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES.
FOCUS FOR LATER TNGT WL SHIFT TOWARD POPS ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG WAA
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING TO THE E AND FALLING MSLP TO THE W IN
ADVANCE OF SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS AND DEEPENING
ARCTIC BRANCH TROF INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS/SFC HI PRES THIS MRNG...
MODELS SHOW H5 HGT RISES UP TO 180M BTWN 06Z-18Z. SHARPENING/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TO AOB 3K FT AGL AND INCRSGLY ACYC H925
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES W-E WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE E ENDING BY NOON. AS SKIES TURN MOSUNNY THIS AFTN
WITH RDG AXIS SHIFTING E ACRS THE CWA...EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN
THE 20S WITH MIXING TO H85-875.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV RDG EXITS TO THE E...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT
INTO NEW ENGLAND. INCRSG SW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND FALLING
MSLP FM NW ONTARIO THRU THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING SHRTWV THAT
WL BE DEEPENING THE ARCTIC BRANCH TROF IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND SHRTWV
LIFTING NE INTO THE PLAINS FM SRN BRANCH CUTOFF LO NOW OVER SRN CA
WILL BRING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BACK TO THE UPR LKS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN UP TO 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH BY 12Z
NEAR THE WI BORDER WELL TO THE N OF H85 WARM FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
BRANCH LO PRES CENTER FCST TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
BAND OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO HIER LVL FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
AND MID LVL MOISTENING WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST TO INCRS UP TO
2 G/KG BY 12Z. BUT POPS/PCPN AMNTS WL BE LIMITED BY LINGERING LOWER
LVL DRY AIR AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR STILL
FARTHER TO THE SW. GIVEN THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND FCST SHARPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT/H85 WARM FNT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE SW...WENT NO
HIER THAN HI CHC POPS LATE NEAR THE WI BORDER ATTM. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E CLOSER TO RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF
DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION QUICKLY COMING TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THEN...AS COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND -11C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
TO -26C AT 18Z WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATER. THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION FOR
THE LAKE EFFECT FORECAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL LARGER
AREAS OF OPEN WATER AND SLUSH OVER WESTERN...NORTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THOSE AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN REPRESENTED
IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT...SO I DON/T FEEL THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL IN THE QPF FIELDS.
THUS...HAVE PERFORMED SIGNIFICANT HAND EDITS TO THE GRIDS...BOTH IN
RAISING POPS AND HIGHLIGHTING AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE CURRENT OPEN
WATER AREAS. WITH THE STRONG WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THOSE AREAS OF OPEN WATER WILL LIKELY EXPAND
AND MOVE...SO THAT DOES INCREASE THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SOME...BUT EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR...THINK THE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE
ICE COVER EXPANDING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE LAKE
EFFECT WON/T BE TOO STRONG INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUD WILL
BE WITHIN THE DGZ AND LEAD TO A FLUFFY INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 7-9KFT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SUPPORT MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY EVEN
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH THE COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...SNOWFLAKE SIZE SHOULD BE SMALL AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUPLE INCH RANGE FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AREAS DOWNWIND
OF THE OPEN WATER. IN ADDITION...RECENT SNOWFALL AND THE STRONG
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE FINE FLAKED LAKE EFFECT SNOW...THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE AND IN THE STRONGER BANDS
LIKELY BELOW 1/2MI. FORTUNATELY...WITH WINDS MORE OUT OF THE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST...THE IMPACT FOR AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE IN THE AREAS TO THE EAST OF MUNISING AND GENERALLY LESS
POPULATED AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING WINDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE (LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS). A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW A GRADUALLY DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD WHILE FOLLOWING THE WIND DIRECTIONS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO TURN A LITTLE
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (INTO THE LOWER
30S). BUT THE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE IS LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE MODELS HANDLE A COUPLE WAVES COMING ON
SHORE IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE 12Z GFS/GEM SLIDE THE WAVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ONE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE
WAVES BECOMING SEPARATED AND SPLITTING THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EITHER WAY WITH THE LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL
ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...LIKELY PULLING IN THE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR A
WHILE THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THEN WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH AND A HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS...SHOULD SEE
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORMAL SNOW BELTS. WITH THE FAVORABLE
850MB TEMPS (AROUND -14 TO -18C MONDAY)...WILL TREND POPS UP TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCES FOR NOW UNTIL WE ARE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE ICE SITUATION ON LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND ALASKA FOR THE LAST MONTH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND START MELTING SOME OF THE
SNOWPACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATE TONIGHT...SW
FLOW BTWN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL BRING A
RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW DEVELOPMENT. AS
THE SNOW SPREADS NE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD AROUND
09Z AND AT KCMX/KSAW AROUND 12Z. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
NW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RIDGE. LIGHT S WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ADVANCE AN APPROACHING LO
PRES. ONCE THE LO PASSES TO THE E ON TUE NIGHT...TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF NW
GALES INTO WED. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS
AROUND 95 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT
THE HIGHER ICE COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER
NAMERICA WITH ARCTIC BRANCH TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
GREAT LKS. SHRTWV/AREA OF SOME LO/MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MSTR
BTWN H9 AND H7 SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ARE PASSING THRU UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG. IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD NW LLVL FLOW E OF HI PRES
RDG SHIFTING INTO MN THAT IS ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -18C TO
-19C INTO THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED SN SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING UPR MI
DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP. THE MOST NMRS SN SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE OVER THE W TO THE S OF HOUGHTON AND OVER ALGER
COUNTY...LOCATIONS THAT ARE DOWNWIND OF WIDER BREAKS IN THE ICE
COVER OVER WRN LK SUP NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD/E OF THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA AND OVER AN AREA TO THE E OF THE KEWEENAW. LOOKING TO THE
NW...THERE IS A SHRTWV RDG WITHIN THE ARCTIC BRANCH MOVING E OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA SUPPORTING THE SFC HI MOVING INTO MN. 12HR H5 HGT
RISES UP TO 100-120M HAVE BEEN OBSVD UNDER THE NVA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH...THERE IS A CUTOFF LO MOVING OFF THE
PACIFIC INTO SRN CA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS INTO THIS MRNG
AND THEN ANTICIPATED CLRG WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES.
FOCUS FOR LATER TNGT WL SHIFT TOWARD POPS ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG WAA
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING TO THE E AND FALLING MSLP TO THE W IN
ADVANCE OF SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS AND DEEPENING
ARCTIC BRANCH TROF INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS/SFC HI PRES THIS MRNG...
MODELS SHOW H5 HGT RISES UP TO 180M BTWN 06Z-18Z. SHARPENING/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TO AOB 3K FT AGL AND INCRSGLY ACYC H925
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES W-E WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE E ENDING BY NOON. AS SKIES TURN MOSUNNY THIS AFTN
WITH RDG AXIS SHIFTING E ACRS THE CWA...EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN
THE 20S WITH MIXING TO H85-875.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV RDG EXITS TO THE E...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT
INTO NEW ENGLAND. INCRSG SW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND FALLING
MSLP FM NW ONTARIO THRU THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING SHRTWV THAT
WL BE DEEPENING THE ARCTIC BRANCH TROF IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND SHRTWV
LIFTING NE INTO THE PLAINS FM SRN BRANCH CUTOFF LO NOW OVER SRN CA
WILL BRING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BACK TO THE UPR LKS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN UP TO 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH BY 12Z
NEAR THE WI BORDER WELL TO THE N OF H85 WARM FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
BRANCH LO PRES CENTER FCST TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
BAND OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO HIER LVL FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
AND MID LVL MOISTENING WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST TO INCRS UP TO
2 G/KG BY 12Z. BUT POPS/PCPN AMNTS WL BE LIMITED BY LINGERING LOWER
LVL DRY AIR AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR STILL
FARTHER TO THE SW. GIVEN THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND FCST SHARPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT/H85 WARM FNT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE SW...WENT NO
HIER THAN HI CHC POPS LATE NEAR THE WI BORDER ATTM. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E CLOSER TO RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF
DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
PRIMARY IMPACT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE TUE AS MODERATE SNOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
AT 12Z TUE A NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SRN/SWRN
CWA. SRN STREAM ENERGY STAYS MAINLY S OF THE CWA ON TUE AS THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. GENERALLY MODERATE SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION IN THE BROAD AREA OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE FORCING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE W. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 15-1 AND 18-1
AS TEMP PROFILES DO NOT SHOW THE DGZ BEING PARTICULARLY DEEP...BUT
DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP RATIOS FROM BEING AS LOW AS 10-1. GENERALLY
PREFER A BLEND OF MODEL QPF FROM THE 00Z/02 GFS...12Z/01
ECMWF...00Z/02 NAM/NAM DNG...00Z/02 REGIONAL GEM AND 00Z/02 CONSALL.
THESE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...LIKELY DUE TO CHALLENGES OF SYSTEM PHASING.
PREFERRED MODEL BLEND GIVES QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20-0.28
INCHES...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 2.5
INCHES SCENTRAL TO 3-5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AT THE HIGHER END
OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.35 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 5-6 INCHES.
THE LOW END OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE WOULD RESULT IN 2-3.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE AS MOST OF THE
SNOW FALLS IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS DURING THE DAY AND CRITERIA IS 3-6
INCHES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS
GIVEN VARIABILITY OF EXACT AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT DUE TO COMPLEXITIES
OF SYSTEM PHASING.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AS WARM AS -9C ON TUE...SFC HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ANOTHER COLDER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL DECREASE TO A MINIMUM
OF -25C TO -30C WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY LATE WED
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING
PEAK HEATING WED AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W WED NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS WED
NIGHT FALLING TO AROUND -20 ALONG THE WI BORDER IN GOGEBIC AND IRON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...LES
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT
LES IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO THU IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AS WNW WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORE LATE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING
UNDER DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATE TONIGHT...SW
FLOW BTWN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL BRING A
RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW DEVELOPMENT. AS
THE SNOW SPREADS NE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD AROUND
09Z AND AT KCMX/KSAW AROUND 12Z. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
NW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RIDGE. LIGHT S WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ADVANCE AN APPROACHING LO
PRES. ONCE THE LO PASSES TO THE E ON TUE NIGHT...TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF NW
GALES INTO WED. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS
AROUND 95 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT
THE HIGHER ICE COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
450 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER
NAMERICA WITH ARCTIC BRANCH TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
GREAT LKS. SHRTWV/AREA OF SOME LO/MID CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MSTR
BTWN H9 AND H7 SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ARE PASSING THRU UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG. IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD NW LLVL FLOW E OF HI PRES
RDG SHIFTING INTO MN THAT IS ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -18C TO
-19C INTO THE AREA...SOME SCATTERED SN SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING UPR MI
DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP. THE MOST NMRS SN SHOWERS
APPEAR TO BE OVER THE W TO THE S OF HOUGHTON AND OVER ALGER
COUNTY...LOCATIONS THAT ARE DOWNWIND OF WIDER BREAKS IN THE ICE
COVER OVER WRN LK SUP NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD/E OF THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA AND OVER AN AREA TO THE E OF THE KEWEENAW. LOOKING TO THE
NW...THERE IS A SHRTWV RDG WITHIN THE ARCTIC BRANCH MOVING E OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA SUPPORTING THE SFC HI MOVING INTO MN. 12HR H5 HGT
RISES UP TO 100-120M HAVE BEEN OBSVD UNDER THE NVA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH...THERE IS A CUTOFF LO MOVING OFF THE
PACIFIC INTO SRN CA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS INTO THIS MRNG
AND THEN ANTICIPATED CLRG WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES.
FOCUS FOR LATER TNGT WL SHIFT TOWARD POPS ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG WAA
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING TO THE E AND FALLING MSLP TO THE W IN
ADVANCE OF SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS AND DEEPENING
ARCTIC BRANCH TROF INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TODAY...WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG AXIS/SFC HI PRES THIS MRNG...
MODELS SHOW H5 HGT RISES UP TO 180M BTWN 06Z-18Z. SHARPENING/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TO AOB 3K FT AGL AND INCRSGLY ACYC H925
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LES W-E WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE E ENDING BY NOON. AS SKIES TURN MOSUNNY THIS AFTN
WITH RDG AXIS SHIFTING E ACRS THE CWA...EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN
THE 20S WITH MIXING TO H85-875.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV RDG EXITS TO THE E...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO DRIFT
INTO NEW ENGLAND. INCRSG SW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND FALLING
MSLP FM NW ONTARIO THRU THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING SHRTWV THAT
WL BE DEEPENING THE ARCTIC BRANCH TROF IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND SHRTWV
LIFTING NE INTO THE PLAINS FM SRN BRANCH CUTOFF LO NOW OVER SRN CA
WILL BRING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BACK TO THE UPR LKS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF LGT PCPN UP TO 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH BY 12Z
NEAR THE WI BORDER WELL TO THE N OF H85 WARM FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
BRANCH LO PRES CENTER FCST TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
BAND OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO HIER LVL FGEN IN THE H7-5 LYR
AND MID LVL MOISTENING WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST TO INCRS UP TO
2 G/KG BY 12Z. BUT POPS/PCPN AMNTS WL BE LIMITED BY LINGERING LOWER
LVL DRY AIR AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR STILL
FARTHER TO THE SW. GIVEN THE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND FCST SHARPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT/H85 WARM FNT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE SW...WENT NO
HIER THAN HI CHC POPS LATE NEAR THE WI BORDER ATTM. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E CLOSER TO RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF
DRIER AIR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
PRIMARY IMPACT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE TUE AS MODERATE SNOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
AT 12Z TUE A NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SRN/SWRN
CWA. SRN STREAM ENERGY STAYS MAINLY S OF THE CWA ON TUE AS THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. GENERALLY MODERATE SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION IN THE BROAD AREA OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE FORCING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE W. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 15-1 AND 18-1
AS TEMP PROFILES DO NOT SHOW THE DGZ BEING PARTICULARLY DEEP...BUT
DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP RATIOS FROM BEING AS LOW AS 10-1. GENERALLY
PREFER A BLEND OF MODEL QPF FROM THE 00Z/02 GFS...12Z/01
ECMWF...00Z/02 NAM/NAM DNG...00Z/02 REGIONAL GEM AND 00Z/02 CONSALL.
THESE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...LIKELY DUE TO CHALLENGES OF SYSTEM PHASING.
PREFERRED MODEL BLEND GIVES QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20-0.28
INCHES...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 2.5
INCHES SCENTRAL TO 3-5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AT THE HIGHER END
OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.35 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 5-6 INCHES.
THE LOW END OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE WOULD RESULT IN 2-3.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE AS MOST OF THE
SNOW FALLS IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS DURING THE DAY AND CRITERIA IS 3-6
INCHES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS
GIVEN VARIABILITY OF EXACT AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT DUE TO COMPLEXITIES
OF SYSTEM PHASING.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AS WARM AS -9C ON TUE...SFC HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ANOTHER COLDER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL DECREASE TO A MINIMUM
OF -25C TO -30C WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY LATE WED
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING
PEAK HEATING WED AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W WED NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS WED
NIGHT FALLING TO AROUND -20 ALONG THE WI BORDER IN GOGEBIC AND IRON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...LES
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT
LES IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO THU IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AS WNW WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORE LATE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF SFC LOW PRES TROF COULD RESULT IN SOME SCT -SHSN
AND TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX. ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR AND BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD AND KCMX LATE MORNING. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
NW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RIDGE. LIGHT S WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON TUE IN ADVANCE AN APPROACHING LO
PRES. ONCE THE LO PASSES TO THE E ON TUE NIGHT...TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF NW
GALES INTO WED. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS
AROUND 95 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT
THE HIGHER ICE COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
332 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME
-SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING
UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A
ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF
THE LAKE WASN`T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W
WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN
THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE
PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED
FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N
OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH
HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN
WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD
TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...
WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER
1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL
DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F.
ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER
WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE (BY MID AFTN
850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE
DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR
MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO
DEPARTING THERMAL TROF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
PRIMARY IMPACT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE TUE AS MODERATE SNOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
AT 12Z TUE A NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SRN/SWRN
CWA. SRN STREAM ENERGY STAYS MAINLY S OF THE CWA ON TUE AS THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. GENERALLY MODERATE SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION IN THE BROAD AREA OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE FORCING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE W. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 15-1 AND 18-1
AS TEMP PROFILES DO NOT SHOW THE DGZ BEING PARTICULARLY DEEP...BUT
DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP RATIOS FROM BEING AS LOW AS 10-1. GENERALLY
PREFER A BLEND OF MODEL QPF FROM THE 00Z/02 GFS...12Z/01
ECMWF...00Z/02 NAM/NAM DNG...00Z/02 REGIONAL GEM AND 00Z/02 CONSALL.
THESE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...LIKELY DUE TO CHALLENGES OF SYSTEM PHASING.
PREFERRED MODEL BLEND GIVES QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20-0.28
INCHES...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 2.5
INCHES SCENTRAL TO 3-5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AT THE HIGHER END
OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.35 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 5-6 INCHES.
THE LOW END OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE WOULD RESULT IN 2-3.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE AS MOST OF THE
SNOW FALLS IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS DURING THE DAY AND CRITERIA IS 3-6
INCHES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS
GIVEN VARIABILITY OF EXACT AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT DUE TO COMPLEXITIES
OF SYSTEM PHASING.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AS WARM AS -9C ON TUE...SFC HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ANOTHER COLDER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL DECREASE TO A MINIMUM
OF -25C TO -30C WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY LATE WED
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING
PEAK HEATING WED AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W WED NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS WED
NIGHT FALLING TO AROUND -20 ALONG THE WI BORDER IN GOGEBIC AND IRON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...LES
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT
LES IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO THU IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AS WNW WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORE LATE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF SFC LOW PRES TROF COULD RESULT IN SOME SCT -SHSN
AND TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX. ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR AND BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD AND KCMX LATE MORNING. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1210 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME
-SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING
UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A
ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF
THE LAKE WASN`T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W
WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN
THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE
PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED
FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N
OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH
HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN
WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD
TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...
WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER
1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL
DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F.
ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER
WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE (BY MID AFTN
850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE
DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR
MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO
DEPARTING THERMAL TROF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
...WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE...
PRIMARY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK IS LIMITED TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A
COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CHANCES WILL
BE HELD DOWN AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. TEMPS
REBOUND AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY AND COULD STAY AT SIMILAR LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A TWO-PIECED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING
TOWARD REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW SLIDES FM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE SFC LOW ARRIVES ALONG THE NEB/IOWA BORDER. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT BTWN H85 AND
H5. LIFT IS PRETTY STRONG WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION...SO SHOULD SEE
LGT SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD WI BORDER WITH
LOWEST 100MB GRADUALLY SATURATING. HINTS ARE THERE THAT THE INITIAL
SNOW COULD BE DRIVEN BY FGEN...BUT WHERE MAX RIBBON OF HEAVIER SNOW
SETS UP IS NOT CERTAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE OVER WESTERN CWA...BUT
THIS IS AT ODDS WITH NAM DOMINATED SREF OUTPUT AND SEEMS TOO FAR
NORTH AS IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW ON
INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW ON TUESDAY ON
EDGE OF GREATER H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAINLY IS MAXIMIZED
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN OUT AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. H7 MIXING RATIOS
GFS/ECMWF STAY BLO 3G/KG THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BLEND OF QPF FM GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SLR/S CENTERED ON
15:1...SUGGEST ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL SCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO GRAPHICS.
PHASING BTWN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
NEVEN REALLY TAKES OFF SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN CORE OF UPPER JET ENERGY STAYS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CHANCE POPS LINGER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.
INITIALLY LAKE EFFECT IN WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ON TUESDAY
EVENING PROBABLY STAYS ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD AIR
/H85 TEMPS WARMER THAN -15C/ AND MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR.
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE H8-H7 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO
-20C OVER LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN INVERSIONS RISING UP TO A MAX OF
8KFT WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE THE HIGH
ICE COVERAGE...SCT POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME HELP FM DAYTIME HEATING
AS THE HYBRID LAKE EFFECT SEASON IS UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGHER SUN
ANGLE. WITH NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LK SUPERIOR
SHORELINES...PROBABLY WILL HAVE BLSN/POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW BELTS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. EVEN MINUS BLSN...LES WILL BE GOOD AT
REDUCING VSBY AS THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE BECOMING SMALLER. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL BLO -25C BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPS
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WINDS BACKING W-WSW BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL DIMINISH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE. TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
TANK WELL UNDER 10 BLO ZERO. MAY SEE MARGINALLY LOW WIND CHILLS ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FARTHER INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NEARLY CALM. STILL COLD ON THURSDAY AS CORE
OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY HEADS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD UPPER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WARMING FIRST OCCURS ALOFT THEN MAKES ITS WAY TO SFC BY
FRIDAY AFTN. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SWEEPS
ACROSS LEAVING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT
DOES NOT SYNC UP...SO NOT EXPECING MUCH IN WAY OF LGT SNOW. BETTER
LINKING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS IDEA FM GFS AND
ECMWF. COLD AIR NOT AS EMPHATIC FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING H85 TEMPS MAINLY WARMER THAN -12C. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST
RUN WITH CONSENSUS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RESULT IS DAYTIME TEMPS IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LGT SNOW MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF SFC LOW PRES TROF COULD RESULT IN SOME SCT -SHSN
AND TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX. ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR AND BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD AND KCMX LATE MORNING. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
810 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AD RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SNOW WAS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS AGREE THAT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
BAND WILL NOT LAST LONG...AROUND 3 OR 4 HOURS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO WITHIN THIS BAND. INITIALLY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
BY 20 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL
INCREASE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 06Z OR
SO. LIFT WILL BE WEAKER TO THE NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. SHOULD
SEE A FAIRLY QUICK TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. THE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES A
LITTLE BETTER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ /EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE JUST
ABOVE THE DGZ/ SO THAT GAVE A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE...AND WILL TAKE
LOW END LIKELY POPS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEW 18Z NAM MODEL
RUN.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE. STILL PRETTY COLD WEDNESDAY...WITH H850MB NOT WARMING MUCH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND STAYING WELL BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
BUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GROUND LOOKS PRETTY
BARE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WARMER DRIER AIR MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER
PATTERN LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST PATTERN SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PULL ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLOW
CLIMB THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AN UPPER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL BRING AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE LIGHT STARTS IT IS LIKELY TO LAST FOUR TO EIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY TO BE 1000-1500 FEET AGL
WITH VISIBILITY 2-3SM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AD RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS AGREE THAT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
BAND WILL NOT LAST LONG...AROUND 3 OR 4 HOURS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO WITHIN THIS BAND. INITIALLY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
BY 20 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL
INCREASE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 06Z OR
SO. LIFT WILL BE WEAKER TO THE NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. SHOULD
SEE A FAIRLY QUICK TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. THE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES A
LITTLE BETTER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ /EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE JUST
ABOVE THE DGZ/ SO THAT GAVE A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE...AND WILL TAKE
LOW END LIKELY POPS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEW 18Z NAM MODEL
RUN.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE. STILL PRETTY COLD WEDNESDAY...WITH H850MB NOT WARMING MUCH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND STAYING WELL BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
BUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GROUND LOOKS PRETTY
BARE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WARMER DRIER AIR MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER
PATTERN LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST PATTERN SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PULL ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLOW
CLIMB THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AN UPPER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL BRING AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE LIGHT STARTS IT IS LIKELY TO LAST FOUR TO EIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY TO BE 1000-1500 FEET AGL
WITH VISIBILITY 2-3SM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...MUCH OF FORECAST AREA CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OUTER BANKS AND EVEN THERE SKIES WILL CLEAR SHORTLY. TEMPS
IN THE CLEAR AREA AT FORECAST HIGHS SO HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON
HIGHS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES.
FOR TODAY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH FORCING OR MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
THE INHERITED 20 POP FROM GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AFTER AROUND NOON TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS COLUMN DRIES. BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALS AND MO CLOUDY SKIES FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY...
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S (LOW 50S NE TO UPPER 50S SW).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE
NIGHT AS TRANSITORY HIGH SCOOTS BY TO THE NORTH. MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELLING OFF AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
INC ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND INC MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK AS TRANSIENT SYSTEMS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE WILL BRING SPRINGLIKE
WARMTH DURING MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP AND
COLD ON THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY TO PERHAPS WIDEPSREAD LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SURFACE WARNS ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY P
TYPE ISSUES ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEDGE INLAND RETARDS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESS UNTIL EVENING. THUS THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD MAKE INTO
THE 60S LATE WHILE DEEPER INLAND LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEDGE ERODES WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THUS WILL NEED TO FORECAST A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE WITH TUESDAYS "HIGHS" LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHTS "LOWS" AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NC.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES (FOR
A CHANGE) ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING ONSHORE BREEZES. COULD SEE SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH RAIN CHANCES TO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT AS AN ANA FRONT TYPE PRECIP REGIME SETS UP BEHIND THE
INCOMING SFC BNDRY.
THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERED TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT TO THE CRYSTAL
COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW WITH
THE FRONT STILL WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
WAS THE COMPROMISE CHOICE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING
LATER THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. TOO EARLY TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL ABOUT
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS AS YET BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THRU
QUICKLY WHICH WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.
PRECIP ENDS LATE THU/THU EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SATURDAY/SUNDAY. LOWS THU AND FRIDAY WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE (GFS DRY/ECMWF WETTER). WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNTIL PERIOD COMES INTO
BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUN...VSBYS SLOWLY COMING UP BUT LIFR/IFR CIGS
PERSISTING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR LATE MORNING THEN FINALLY VFR BY AROUND NOON. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTH 10KT POSSIBLY GUSTING A LITTLE HIGHER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NE WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY THEN A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA WITH PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD
CVRG OF RAIN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING
LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON. CURRENT OBS SHOWING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITH A WSW
WIND 10 TO 15 KT. MAINTAINING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM FOR
ALL WATERS AS VSBYS RANGING GENERALLY 1/2 TO 2 MILES. FOR
TODAY...THE WSW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INC
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A NORTHERLY SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RIGHT NOW ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE RIVERS
SHOULD SEE SCA DEVELOPING. HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER NE AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS SCA HEADLINES ENDING AROUND 9Z AS SEAS TAKE
A BIT LONGER TO RESPOND TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE MORN
THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S LATE TUE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N
THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TUE THEN BUILD BACK UP TO
4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N WINDS THU WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 9
FEET. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JME
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM MON...CLEARING LINE STEADILY WORKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSTATE REGION AT PRESENT. VISIBILITIES ARE
SLOWLY COMING UP BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK.
FOR TODAY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH FORCING OR MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
THE INHERITED 20 POP FROM GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AFTER AROUND NOON TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS COLUMN DRIES. BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALS AND MO CLOUDY SKIES FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY...
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S (LOW 50S NE TO UPPER 50S SW).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE
NIGHT AS TRANSITORY HIGH SCOOTS BY TO THE NORTH. MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELLING OFF AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
INC ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND INC MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK AS TRANSIENT SYSTEMS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE WILL BRING SPRINGLIKE
WARMTH DURING MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP AND
COLD ON THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY TO PERHAPS WIDEPSREAD LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SURFACE WARNS ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY P
TYPE ISSUES ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEDGE INLAND RETARDS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESS UNTIL EVENING. THUS THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD MAKE INTO
THE 60S LATE WHILE DEEPER INLAND LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEDGE ERODES WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THUS WILL NEED TO FORECAST A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE WITH TUESDAYS "HIGHS" LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHTS "LOWS" AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NC.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES (FOR
A CHANGE) ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING ONSHORE BREEZES. COULD SEE SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH RAIN CHANCES TO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT AS AN ANA FRONT TYPE PRECIP REGIME SETS UP BEHIND THE
INCOMING SFC BNDRY.
THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERED TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT TO THE CRYSTAL
COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW WITH
THE FRONT STILL WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
WAS THE COMPROMISE CHOICE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING
LATER THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. TOO EARLY TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL ABOUT
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS AS YET BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THRU
QUICKLY WHICH WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.
PRECIP ENDS LATE THU/THU EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SATURDAY/SUNDAY. LOWS THU AND FRIDAY WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE (GFS DRY/ECMWF WETTER). WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNTIL PERIOD COMES INTO
BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUN...VSBYS SLOWLY COMING UP BUT LIFR/IFR CIGS
PERSISTING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR LATE MORNING THEN FINALLY VFR BY AROUND NOON. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTH 10KT POSSIBLY GUSTING A LITTLE HIGHER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NE WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY THEN A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA WITH PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD
CVRG OF RAIN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING
LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON. CURRENT OBS SHOWING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITH A WSW
WIND 10 TO 15 KT. MAINTAINING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM FOR
ALL WATERS AS VSBYS RANGING GENERALLY 1/2 TO 2 MILES. FOR
TODAY...THE WSW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INC
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A NORTHERLY SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RIGHT NOW ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE RIVERS
SHOULD SEE SCA DEVELOPING. HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER NE AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS SCA HEADLINES ENDING AROUND 9Z AS SEAS TAKE
A BIT LONGER TO RESPOND TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE MORN
THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S LATE TUE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N
THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TUE THEN BUILD BACK UP TO
4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N WINDS THU WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 9
FEET. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JME
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...CURRENTLY...MOST AREAS STILL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY DUE TO LIGHT WRLY WINDS KEEPING SFC A BIT MIXED...AND
WILL MAINTAIN SPS FOR FOG THROUGH 10AM.
FOR TODAY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH FORCING OR MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
THE INHERITED 20 POP FROM GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AFTER AROUND NOON TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS COLUMN DRIES. BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALS AND MO CLOUDY SKIES FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY...
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S (LOW 50S NE TO UPPER 50S SW).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE
NIGHT AS TRANSITORY HIGH SCOOTS BY TO THE NORTH. MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELLING OFF AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
INC ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND INC MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK AS TRANSIENT SYSTEMS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE WILL BRING SPRINGLIKE
WARMTH DURING MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP AND
COLD ON THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY TO PERHAPS WIDEPSREAD LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SURFACE WARNS ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY P
TYPE ISSUES ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEDGE INLAND RETARDS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESS UNTIL EVENING. THUS THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD MAKE INTO
THE 60S LATE WHILE DEEPER INLAND LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEDGE ERODES WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THUS WILL NEED TO FORECAST A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE WITH TUESDAYS "HIGHS" LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHTS "LOWS" AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NC.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES (FOR
A CHANGE) ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING ONSHORE BREEZES. COULD SEE SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH RAIN CHANCES TO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT AS AN ANA FRONT TYPE PRECIP REGIME SETS UP BEHIND THE
INCOMING SFC BNDRY.
THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERED TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT TO THE CRYSTAL
COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW WITH
THE FRONT STILL WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
WAS THE COMPROMISE CHOICE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING
LATER THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. TOO EARLY TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL ABOUT
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS AS YET BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THRU
QUICKLY WHICH WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.
PRECIP ENDS LATE THU/THU EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SATURDAY/SUNDAY. LOWS THU AND FRIDAY WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE (GFS DRY/ECMWF WETTER). WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNTIL PERIOD COMES INTO
BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH
CEILINGS 2-500 FT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG/BR WITH VSBYS 1 TO 2 MILES ARE OCCURRING. A LIGHT SW TO W WIND
PREVENTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. CONDITIONS LOOK TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR MID TO LATE MORNING THEN FINALLY
VFR BY AROUND NOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING NORTH 10KT POSSIBLY GUSTING A
LITTLE HIGHER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NE WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY THEN A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA WITH PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD
CVRG OF RAIN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING
LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON. CURRENT OBS SHOWING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITH A WSW
WIND 10 TO 15 KT. MAINTAINING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM FOR
ALL WATERS AS VSBYS RANGING GENERALLY 1/2 TO 2 MILES. FOR
TODAY...THE WSW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INC
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A NORTHERLY SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RIGHT NOW ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE RIVERS
SHOULD SEE SCA DEVELOPING. HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER NE AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS SCA HEADLINES ENDING AROUND 9Z AS SEAS TAKE
A BIT LONGER TO RESPOND TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE MORN
THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S LATE TUE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N
THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TUE THEN BUILD BACK UP TO
4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N WINDS THU WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 9
FEET. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
135>137-150-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/BTC/TL
MARINE...JME/BTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...CURRENTLY...MOST AREAS STILL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS KEEPING SFC A BIT MIXED...THOUGH
SHOULD WINDS DECOUPLE MAY HAVE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING...WILL
REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A DFA ATTM.
FOR TODAY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH FORCING OR MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
THE INHERITED 20 POP FROM GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AFTER AROUND NOON TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS COLUMN DRIES. BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALS AND MO CLOUDY SKIES FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY...
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S (LOW 50S NE TO UPPER 50S SW).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE
NIGHT AS TRANSITORY HIGH SCOOTS BY TO THE NORTH. MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELLING OFF AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
INC ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND INC MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK AS TRANSIENT SYSTEMS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE WILL BRING SPRINGLIKE
WARMTH DURING MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP AND
COLD ON THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY TO PERHAPS WIDEPSREAD LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SURFACE WARNS ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY P
TYPE ISSUES ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEDGE INLAND RETARDS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESS UNTIL EVENING. THUS THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD MAKE INTO
THE 60S LATE WHILE DEEPER INLAND LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEDGE ERODES WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THUS WILL NEED TO FORECAST A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE WITH TUESDAYS "HIGHS" LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHTS "LOWS" AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NC.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES (FOR
A CHANGE) ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING ONSHORE BREEZES. COULD SEE SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH RAIN CHANCES TO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT AS AN ANA FRONT TYPE PRECIP REGIME SETS UP BEHIND THE
INCOMING SFC BNDRY.
THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERED TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT TO THE CRYSTAL
COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW WITH
THE FRONT STILL WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
WAS THE COMPROMISE CHOICE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING
LATER THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. TOO EARLY TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL ABOUT
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS AS YET BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THRU
QUICKLY WHICH WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.
PRECIP ENDS LATE THU/THU EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SATURDAY/SUNDAY. LOWS THU AND FRIDAY WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE (GFS DRY/ECMWF WETTER). WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNTIL PERIOD COMES INTO
BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH
CEILINGS 2-500 FT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS AREAS OF FOG 1/2 TO
1 MILE ARE OCCURRING. COULD SEE VSBYS DROP EVEN FURTHER IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...THOUGH RIGHT NOW EXPECT LIGHT SFC FLOW TO KEEP DENSE
FOG AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. CONDITIONS LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR THEN FINALLY VFR BY AROUND NOON. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS VEERING BECOMING NORTH 10KT POSSIBLY GUSTING A LITTLE
HIGHER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY THEN A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA WITH PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD
CVRG OF RAIN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING
LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON. CURRENT OBS SHOWING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITH A WSW
WIND 10 TO 15 KT. FOR TODAY...THE WSW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INC BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A NORTHERLY SURGE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND RIGHT NOW ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE
RIVERS SHOULD SEE SCA DEVELOPING. HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER NE AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS SCA HEADLINES ENDING AROUND 9Z AS
SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO RESPOND TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE MORN
THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S LATE TUE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N
THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TUE THEN BUILD BACK UP TO
4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N WINDS THU WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 9
FEET. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES
LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
135>137-150-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/BTC/TL
MARINE...JME/BTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
950 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH
OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOWERED POPS A BIT FASTER NORTH. MODELS SHOW PRECIP ALL
BUT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN COMING BACK TO
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO DIDNT WANT TO END PRECIP TOO QUICK SOUTH.
ALSO LOWERED ANY MENTION OF SNOW ACCUM DOWN TO LITTLE OR NO.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS WELL BEGINNING WITH CURRENT READINGS AND
BLENDING THEM INTO HRRR MORNING FORECAST TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...WARMER AIR HAS TAKEN A LITTLE BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE BUT
IS STILL PUSHING NORTHWARD. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELYRIA
TO MEDINA TO WARREN LOOK TO BE IN THE CLEAR FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS WILL
REMAIN SLICK.
OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OHIO
UNTIL 6 PM AND EXTENDED NW PA UNTIL 9 PM. IT IS EXPECTED THESE
LOCATIONS WILL ALL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 3 AM OR LATER. THIS
LATE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN DECENT LIFT
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. AT WORST CASE AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL AT LEAST 10 PM THEN
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A
RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT BUT A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO WILL POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SINCE AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REGION DIPS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. COLD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
RECOVERING INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
BELOW ZERO IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A BREAKDOWN OF LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE TROUGH
WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT MORE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A FEW
MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS...YET THESE VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED
DISTURBANCES WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY
TURNING OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH...THEY WILL FEEL NOTABLY WARMER THAN WE`VE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS SAT-TUE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 32F. STILL FEEL THE GUIDANCE`S
CLIMATOLOGY BIAS IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TOO
PREMATURELY SAT/SUN...COULD SEE IT HAPPEN TUE AS THE RIDGING BEGINS
IN THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS BUT THE WHOLE
LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. FORECAST AREA IS IN THE
WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME BUT THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS AND ALLOW
COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORE. REAL
IMPROVEMENT DOES NOT REALLY START UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER FOR MFD...CAK YNG WED NIGHT INTO
THU THEN IMPROVE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE REMAINED UNDER 15KT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TURN TO THE SW AND THEN
W. AFTER THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY...WIND SPEEDS
WILL SUBSIDE AND REMAIN AROUND 15KT THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AND TEMPS... ONCE AGAIN...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAD TO FIX TEMPS ACROSS NWRN OK... CLOUDS BUILDING IN ACROSS NWRN
OK HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE INSOLATION THIS EVENING... KEEPING TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 30S/UPPER 20S THROUGH 11PM. ADJUSTED FOR THIS TREND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS... AND MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.
WATCHING RADAR TRENDS... THE HRRR HAS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP ACROSS NRN TX... NOT SURE HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT IN THIS AT
THE MOMENT SINCE ITS TRACK RECORD WITH WEAK FORCING IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT. HOWEVER... GETTING BETTER ECHOS ON KFWS IN NORTH TX...
WITH DRIZZLE REPORTED AT A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.
DECIDED TO BUMP UP POPS A SKOSH ACROSS TEXOMA... MAY HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO BULISH EARLIER THIS EVENING. KEPT PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
OVERALL...WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
TAFS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY WORSEN TO MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 01Z...
AND PERHAPS IFR SOUTH OF KCSM-KSWO AFTER 01Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX AND TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT... PULLED BACK CHANCES FOR RA/DZ EARLY
THIS EVENING AND FZRA/FZDZ OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN OK/TEXOMA AND WRN
N TX. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR HAVE TRIMMED BACK
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP... HOLDING THEM S/SE OF THE RED RIVER.
FROM EARLY RADAR TRENDS... THIS SOLUTION SEEMS PROBABLE. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE... HAD TO REIN IN TEMPS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER
FORECAST WAS DROPPING THEM TOO FAST. WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST... TEMPS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE...
CONTINUED WITH LIGHT RA/DZ CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. KEPT
FOG CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT... BUT DROPPED TO PATCHY AS N/NE WINDS
ACROSS NRN OK DON`T ALWAYS BODE WELL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... WITH THAT SAID... WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE GROUND... PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WITH THIS ISSUANCE...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY NEW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS THAT COULD SEE VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. THERE ARE ALREADY TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS WILL BE COMPOUNDED LATE TONIGHT AS SLUSHY/WET
UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS REFREEZE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM
ANY LIGHT PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND
NOT EXPECTED TO ADD MUCH TO REFREEZING ISSUE. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG
ISSUES BUT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.
TURN OVER TO NON-FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR
A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY. TRENDS OF MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE ENDING AS
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THIS
TRANSITION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. NO SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 26 39 37 / 30 10 10 30
HOBART OK 34 25 36 35 / 20 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 36 29 39 37 / 30 20 10 40
GAGE OK 33 22 38 37 / 30 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 32 22 40 37 / 20 10 10 30
DURANT OK 37 32 42 40 / 40 30 30 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
230 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TAIL END OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. DOPPLER RADAR AT SPOKANE IS SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF WEAK
RETURNS (LESS THAN 20 DBZ). LATEST HRRR KEEP REFLECTIVITIES THIS LOW
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-HOUR QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN A
TENTH OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS WHERE A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING 3-6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WALLOWA VALLEY...IMNAHA
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU OF WALLOWA COUNTY WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE 20:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE BREEZY TONIGHT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BEAT THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY--ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. WISTER
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO
THE 60S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...LCL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WNW SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH THAT WILL USHER SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z EXCEPT AFTER 06Z ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THAT INCLUDES TAF SITES KPDT AND
KALW. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 23 43 19 50 / 10 0 0 0
ALW 27 44 24 53 / 20 0 0 0
PSC 23 48 18 52 / 10 0 0 0
YKM 25 46 21 51 / 10 0 0 0
HRI 22 47 18 53 / 10 0 0 0
ELN 23 48 19 51 / 10 0 0 0
RDM 16 45 12 52 / 10 0 0 0
LGD 22 40 13 47 / 20 10 0 0
GCD 20 41 15 50 / 20 10 0 0
DLS 28 52 24 57 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
85/97/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.
BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
931 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR SKY COVERAGE,
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION, AND RESULTANT WEATHER FOR TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BTL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARING APART AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR ALOFT DID RESULT IN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, AND UMPQUA BASIN.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR TODAY WITH MOST OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ENDING UP WEST OF THE CASCADES WHILE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST AS ONE HEADS EAST
FROM THE CASCADES. THIS MEANS THAT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST PORTION OF THE AREA
TODAY AS SURFACE HEATING CAUSES SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE VARIOUS KEY LEVELS THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES IN/NEAR THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6KFT TODAY, IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES WITH LITTLE OR NO APPARENT CLOUD
COVER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
WHERE IT DOES OCCUR. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE COAST AND WESTERN UMPQUA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS
AND LCL IFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN TO
OTHER AREAS OF THE WEST SIDE, BUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST, MONDAY, 2 MAR, 2015...HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT AREAS OF MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
BEYOND 5 NM AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN OF A THERMAL TROUGH
AT THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY CHOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. SO FAR MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE COAST. RADAR SHOWS RETURNS INLAND OVER
JOSEPHINE...WESTERN JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT DEWPOINTS
STILL REMAIN LOW, SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND. THE RAP KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE, BUT IT
DOES SHOW SOME QPF WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY
ALSO SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS IN THE SAME AREAS, BUT SUSPECT IT`S
SUGGESTING VIRGA. THEREFORE WE`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE WATERS AND COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER INLAND
IN DOUGLAS...JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY QPF.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A DRY AND MILD
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
RIDGE NEAR 140 W WILL SHIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN
MEDFORD COULD GET NEAR 70 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT 14 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD HAPPEN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ALOFT. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE GFS SHOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR 12C SATURDAY...13C
SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ376.
$$
BTL/MAP/FB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
305 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. SO FAR MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE COAST. RADAR SHOWS RETURNS INLAND OVER
JOSEPHINE...WESTERN JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT DEWPOINTS
STILL REMAIN LOW, SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND. THE RAP KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPIATION OFFSHORE, BUT IT
DOES SHOW SOME QPF WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY
ALSO SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS IN THE SAME AREAS, BUT SUSPECT IT`S
SUGGESTING VIRGA. THEREFORE WE`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE WATERS AND COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER INLAND
IN DOUGLAS...JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN JASCKSON COUNTY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY QPF.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A DRY AND MILD
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
RIDGE NEAR 140 W WILL SHIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN
MEDFORD COULD GET NEAR 70 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT 14 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD HAPPEN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ALOFT. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE GFS SHOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR 12C SATURDAY...13C
SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE COAST AND WESTERN UMPQUA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VIS. THE FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN TO
OTHER AREAS OF THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. -WRIGHT
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST, MONDAY, 2 MAR, 2015...HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT AREAS OF MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
BEYOND 5 NM AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN OF A THERMAL TROUGH
AT THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY CHOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
820 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...ALREADY MADE A FEW UPDATES THIS EVENING TO RAISE
POPS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A SYSTEM IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING, AND WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
ARE MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. IT HAS NOT YET RAINED AT ANY OF THE UPSTREAM OBS SITES,
BUT RADAR SHOWS RAIN APPROACHING THE NORTH OREGON COAST, AND THIS
WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THE 02/00Z GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE RAP BEING THE MOST BULLISH IN SHOWING UP
TO 0.10 INCH OVER THE COOS COAST. I DIDN`T GO THAT HIGH WITH
AMOUNTS, BUT I DID RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TONIGHT AND BUMPED UP QPF AS WELL. RAIN IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND, AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED. -WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SKIES
WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR BUT ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-10Z AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AT THE COAST.
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING,
MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PST, SUNDAY, 1 MAR, 2015...HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT AREAS OF MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
AND IN THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LOW WITH LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE PATTERN OF A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY THEN WINDS WEAKEN LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. SK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...01/12Z NAM/GFS IN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
RIDGES.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A WAVE NUMBER AROUND THE HEMISPHERE
TODAY BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS OVER
NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHERN CANADA.
A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG 135W AND IT ISN`T GOING
ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. THE ANCHOR LOWS FOR THE BLOCK ARE CURRENTLY
OVER CALIFORNIA AND OUT NEAR 40N 160W. CURRENTLY THERE IS DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. ALL OF THIS SUPPORTS THE DRY
OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONTSIDE OF THE
RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THIS WAVE DOES SPEND SOME TIME
OVER THE WATER...SO IT MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AFTER THAT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...SO THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.
EVENTUALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE CWA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE IN THE WEEK AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WELL TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
OVER THE AREA.
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AFFECTING THE PACNW AND DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
UNTIL AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AS ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LL JET AND ASSOC PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
PLAIN RAIN OVR MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AS OF 02Z.
MEANWHILE...MIXED FZRA AND IP CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE LOW LVL COLD AIR WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAST OF THE FZRA ENDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
NE OF KIPT BTWN 06Z-09Z.
BASED ON ASOS ICE ACCRETIONS THRU 02Z AND UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE DOWNGRADED ICE STORM WARNING TO A WINT WX ADV ACROSS
THE N MTNS. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN WINT WX ADV
THRU 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...DUE TO POTENTIAL
OF RESIDUAL ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS. SPOTTER FROM WARREN CO
CONFIRMED THE ICY ROADS WITH TEMPS ABV 32F AT 01Z. LOW LVL COLD
AIR WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST OF THE MTNS...SO HAVE KEPT ADV IN
PLACE THRU 12Z...BUT MID SHIFT MAY MAKE CANCEL EARLY.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 02Z ALREADY SNOW PRECIP TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES THE
FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT /IN THE FORM OF RAIN/ WILL BE
OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE SWRLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW PA. MAY HAVE TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM KJST SOUTHWARD...WHERE
RAINFALL AND TEMPS APPROACHING 50F COULD WILL PRODUCE SIG
SNOWMELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF PA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING PRECIP REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA IN
REGION OF 8-7H FGEN FORCING. MDL BLYR TEMPS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH APPEARS
POSSIBLE BY WED EVENING. DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A MAINLY DRY DAY THERE WITH JUST A CHC OF -SHSN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS SUPPORTING A BROAD STRIPE OF PCPN
ALONG A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF PHASING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE DSW/ROCKIES ON WED AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VLY AND MID ATLC ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS AND SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY THURS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INTO A
DEEPENING COLD SECTOR ALONG/NORTH OF THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PA WED NGT INTO THURS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH IS LKLY TIED TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THAT SAID...THE
CONSENSUS FCST AXIS OF MAX QPF /0.50 INCH OR GREATER/ HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAINTED OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...USED A MULTI MODEL BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION
FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF AMTS WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE
IN A STATE OF TRANSITION AND COOLING DOWN FROM NW TO SE WED-WED
NGT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. A PERIOD OF SLEET
MAY IMPACT FCST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE DURATION A KEY FACTOR
IN THIS FCST. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND GREATEST RISK IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW/6+ INCHES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ROBUST
WPC ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
MAINLY RAIN NOW IN MOST AREAS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE OH VLY WILL KEEP A LARGE
AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. JST WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN...BUT GROUND AND OBJECT
TEMPS LIKELY STILL COLD. THE OTHER FACTOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE LLWS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO JUST RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR A SHORT TIME. MANY AREAS MAY JUST SEE NOTHING ONCE THE
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
FOR WED...RAIN WILL GO BACK TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. HARD TO SEE
CONDITIONS BEING VERY GOOD.
VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
WED INTO THU. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE WED INTO THU...LIKELY GIVING
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA SOME SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
WINDS...SNOW...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
POOR CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ012-
018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1008 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AS ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LL JET AND ASSOC PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
PLAIN RAIN OVR MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AS OF 02Z.
MEANWHILE...MIXED FZRA AND IP CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE LOW LVL COLD AIR WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAST OF THE FZRA ENDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
NE OF KIPT BTWN 06Z-09Z.
BASED ON ASOS ICE ACCRETIONS THRU 02Z AND UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE DOWNGRADED ICE STORM WARNING TO A WINT WX ADV ACROSS
THE N MTNS. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN WINT WX ADV
THRU 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...DUE TO POTENTIAL
OF RESIDUAL ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS. SPOTTER FROM WARREN CO
CONFIRMED THE ICY ROADS WITH TEMPS ABV 32F AT 01Z. LOW LVL COLD
AIR WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST OF THE MTNS...SO HAVE KEPT ADV IN
PLACE THRU 12Z...BUT MID SHIFT MAY MAKE CANCEL EARLY.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 02Z ALREADY SNOW PRECIP TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES THE
FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT /IN THE FORM OF RAIN/ WILL BE
OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE SWRLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW PA. MAY HAVE TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM KJST SOUTHWARD...WHERE
RAINFALL AND TEMPS APPROACHING 50F COULD WILL PRODUCE SIG
SNOWMELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF PA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING PRECIP REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA IN
REGION OF 8-7H FGEN FORCING. MDL BLYR TEMPS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH APPEARS
POSSIBLE BY WED EVENING. DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A MAINLY DRY DAY THERE WITH JUST A CHC OF -SHSN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS SUPPORTING A BROAD STRIPE OF PCPN
ALONG A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF PHASING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE DSW/ROCKIES ON WED AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VLY AND MID ATLC ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS AND SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY THURS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INTO A
DEEPENING COLD SECTOR ALONG/NORTH OF THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PA WED NGT INTO THURS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH IS LKLY TIED TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THAT SAID...THE
CONSENSUS FCST AXIS OF MAX QPF /0.50 INCH OR GREATER/ HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAINTED OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...USED A MULTI MODEL BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION
FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF AMTS WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE
IN A STATE OF TRANSITION AND COOLING DOWN FROM NW TO SE WED-WED
NGT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. A PERIOD OF SLEET
MAY IMPACT FCST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE DURATION A KEY FACTOR
IN THIS FCST. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND GREATEST RISK IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW/6+ INCHES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ROBUST
WPC ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE OH VLY WILL KEEP A LARGE
AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. JST WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN...BUT GROUND AND OBJECT
TEMPS LIKELY STILL COLD. THE OTHER FACTOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE LLWS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO JUST RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR A SHORT TIME. MANY AREAS MAY JUST SEE NOTHING ONCE THE
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
FOR WED...RAIN WILL GO BACK TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. HARD TO SEE
CONDITIONS BEING VERY GOOD.
VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
WED INTO THU. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE WED INTO THU...LIKELY GIVING
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA SOME SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
WINDS...SNOW...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
POOR CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ012-
018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
440 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH MIDWEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING WITH AN INVERTED TROF/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NRN ALABAMA INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DRIER...COLDER AIR IS
WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH ON BRISK NORTH
WINDS. SEEMS LIKE THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
CLOSING WITH THIS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO NORTHERN
AREAS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FOG IS COMMON ACROSS NE MS NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MONROE COUNTY INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TODAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE MIDSOUTH IN COOL NE FLOW. EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN NE AR TO THE UPPER
40S IN MONROE COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A RESPITE FROM
THIS COLD SNAP. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THEN CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NW HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS POST FRONTAL AND STRONG OVERRUNNING
COMMENCES. 00Z MODELS ARE DISPLAY SIMILAR IDEAS THOUGH THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES. FAVORED THE ECMWF TIMING WHICH IS IN BETWEEN
THE FAST GFS AND MUCH SLOWER NAM. BY 12Z WED EXPECT THE FRONT TO
BE LOCATED FROM SAVANNAH TO CLARKSDALE. THROUGH THE DAY THE COLD
AIR WILL DEEPEN WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. ALL THE MODELS HAVE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF QPF
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A GOOD DEAL AS FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW. THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS QUICKLY AND TRANSITIONS TO
SLEET. A LITTLE MORE FREEZING IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AROUND A TENTH OR SO BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET. THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT TO OVERCOME SO IT SEEMS THAT
MUCH OF THE WINTER PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SLEET BEFORE
EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW. COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LESSER...THOUGH
STILL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH TN TO CLARKSDALE STARTING EARLY WED
FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND AROUND NOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY THAT THE WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
MORNING WITH VERY COLD AIR BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL...EVEN MORE SO IF THERE IS ANY KIND
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...00Z GFS KEEPS COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECWMF HAS A SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALL POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
DRIER AIR HAD WORKED DOWN THE NORTH INTO JBR THIS EVENING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SOUTHWARD CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENT WILL SLOW AND POSSIBLY TOP WITH CIGS PREVAILING NEAR
THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT MEM TOWARD SUNRISE.
FOR THE DAYTIME MONDAY PERIODS...WENT SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN LAMP GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT ALL BUT TUP. CIGS WILL
THEN LIKELY DROP BACK TO IFR MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MARINE LAYER WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
WEAKLEY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD THIS EVENING. THE ONLY
UPDATE MADE WAS TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE TO NORTHERN ZONES AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER. OTHERWISE...INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
WEAK UPGLIDE PERSISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THE 0 DEGREE
ISOTHERM EVOLVES THIS EVENING BUT BELIEVE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE FREEZING PRECIP HANDLED VERY WELL.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE REMAINED
NEARLY STEADY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S PREVALENT ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND LOWER 40S TO LOWER/MIDDLE
50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE LIMITED. CONFIDENCE ISN/T PARTICULARLY HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
MOMENT TO CONSIDER HEADLINES BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND ASSESS THE NEED FOR ONE IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY
BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND
KEPT OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS TO MINIMAL MENTION. CONFIDENCE IN
STRONG/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ALSO. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF
I-40.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER
OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM/CANADIAN BEING SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM
SIDE. OPTED TO USE THE ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT SEEMS TO
BE BLENDING THE SOLUTIONS THE BEST AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS MOMENT DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAY BE
FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. STAY TUNED...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
DRIER AIR HAD WORKED DOWN THE NORTH INTO JBR THIS EVENING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SOUTHWARD CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENT WILL SLOW AND POSSIBLY TOP WITH CIGS PREVAILING NEAR
THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT MEM TOWARD SUNRISE.
FOR THE DAYTIME MONDAY PERIODS...WENT SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN LAMP GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT ALL BUT TUP. CIGS WILL
THEN LIKELY DROP BACK TO IFR MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MARINE LAYER WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 04/00z aviation forecast discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Have made some changes to the ongoing owing to a quicker than
expected frontal translation. The 21Z HRRR pegged the position and
motion of the cold front at 23Z -- somewhere from just south of
Dalhart to near Borger then from there to near I-40 at the OK/TX
state line. As such, expect the front to arrive a bit sooner than
previous forecast, which unfortunately means bringing in wintry
precip and IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday morning. Hope to have
things better pinned down on the 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region. The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.
Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is not going to last long. Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th. A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region. The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon. This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area. The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front. Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.
Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms. As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region. Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed. Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
70
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED FOR A FEW DAYS WHILE THE REST OF THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL KICK A SURFACE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND SEND ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WINDS WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING
NORTH WITH LOCAL WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN...AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY WARMING
TONIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BREEZY BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE MOST OF
THE DAY. INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN
IN THE EVENING...THUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE RED RIVER
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE FEEL THE NAM SERIES IS TOO SLOW WITH WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT AND
HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ONCE IT PASSES AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ABOVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS/RAIN GOING MOST OF
THE DAY. AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD DEEPENS...RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN TO ALL SLEET.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED IT AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO
END...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THIS EVENT. WE EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO BEGIN ALONG THE RED RIVER
AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...ACROSS THE METROPLEX SHORTLY AFTER
MIDDAY AND AROUND WACO/KILLEEN/PALESTINE BY SUNSET.
THE MAIN AREA OF OUR CONCERN IS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE WITH FOCUS
ON WACO/KILLEEN TO ATHENS/PALESTINE...WHERE WE THINK SLEET COULD
ACCUMULATE UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN UP TO 1/10 INCH. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE AROUND 700MB AND THE
RIGHT- REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THIS
REGION. WE WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/ICE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS AN EVOLVING SYSTEM
AND THE ACTUAL LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SLEET AND ICE WILL
LIKELY CHANGE SOME AS NEW DATA IS RECEIVED.
AS FOR THE METROPLEX...ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING OR
BELOW...PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON MIX-MASTERS..
OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES...FOLLOWED BY ROADWAYS SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
THE INTENSITY OF THE SLEET AND DURATION WILL GOVERN HOW FAST
IMPACTS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. IF AROUND
ONE-TENTH OR MORE OF SLEET ACCUMULATES BY DARK...THEN IMPACTS
WOULD LAST THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD INTO
FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CLOUD HEIGHTS WERE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT NOON/18Z. HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LIFT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR THE PROSPECTS OF HAVING CLOUD HEIGHTS CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...THERE IS STILL SOME HEATING
AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS NO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE FOR
TODAY`S HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT WIDESPREAD SNOW/SLEET MELT ACROSS
THE DFW AREA HAS LEFT THE GROUND VERY DAMP. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ANY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE MET WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEW POINT DUE TO EVAPORATION KEEPING CEILING HEIGHTS MORE OR LESS
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TEND
TO REMAIN STABLE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH SHOULD START TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO LOWER THE NEAR SURFACE STABILITY
PROFILES A BIT. EVEN IF WE MAINTAIN SOME INVERSION...A SMALLER
DEPTH OF THE INVERSION COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BETTER MIXING THAT RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD HEIGHTS TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGL. WENT WITH A FEW HOURS OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVED CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR...AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR INCREASES IN INTENSITY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG IF NEAR SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE OR BELOW TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 40 65 39 39 27 / 40 40 60 80 50
WACO, TX 42 69 48 48 28 / 30 30 50 80 70
PARIS, TX 39 63 38 40 24 / 40 60 60 80 60
DENTON, TX 39 65 35 37 25 / 40 40 60 70 50
MCKINNEY, TX 40 64 37 38 25 / 40 50 60 80 50
DALLAS, TX 41 67 40 41 27 / 40 40 60 80 50
TERRELL, TX 41 67 42 43 27 / 40 50 60 80 60
CORSICANA, TX 43 68 46 47 28 / 40 40 60 80 70
TEMPLE, TX 42 68 50 50 28 / 30 30 40 70 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 39 69 35 37 26 / 30 30 60 60 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CLOUD HEIGHTS WERE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT NOON/18Z. HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LIFT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR THE PROSPECTS OF HAVING CLOUD HEIGHTS CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...THERE IS STILL SOME HEATING
AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS NO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE FOR
TODAY`S HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT WIDESPREAD SNOW/SLEET MELT ACROSS
THE DFW AREA HAS LEFT THE GROUND VERY DAMP. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ANY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE MET WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEW POINT DUE TO EVAPORATION KEEPING CEILING HEIGHTS MORE OR LESS
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TEND
TO REMAIN STABLE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH SHOULD START TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO LOWER THE NEAR SURFACE STABILITY
PROFILES A BIT. EVEN IF WE MAINTAIN SOME INVERSION...A SMALLER
DEPTH OF THE INVERSION COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BETTER MIXING THAT RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD HEIGHTS TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGL. WENT WITH A FEW HOURS OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVED CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR...AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR INCREASES IN INTENSITY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG IF NEAR SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE OR BELOW TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
MORNING KFWD SOUNDING SHOWS THE SWALLOW ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO
MODIFY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARPE INVERSION NOW AROUND 1200
FEET AND AROUND 50 DEGREES (10C) AT 850 MB (5000 FEET). AS A
RESULT OUR LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG IN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS. COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL WAS HEAVIEST. AS WINDS
VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WE WILL SEE DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO
RISE AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
FIRST LOOK AT THE MORNING MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED. WE/LL BE WORKING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 40 65 39 39 27 / 40 40 60 70 50
WACO, TX 42 69 48 48 28 / 30 30 50 70 60
PARIS, TX 39 63 38 40 24 / 40 60 60 70 60
DENTON, TX 39 65 35 37 25 / 40 40 60 60 50
MCKINNEY, TX 40 64 37 38 25 / 40 50 60 70 50
DALLAS, TX 41 67 40 41 27 / 40 40 60 70 50
TERRELL, TX 41 67 42 43 27 / 40 50 60 70 60
CORSICANA, TX 43 68 46 47 28 / 40 40 60 70 60
TEMPLE, TX 42 68 50 50 28 / 30 30 40 70 60
MINERAL WELLS, TX 39 69 35 37 26 / 30 30 60 60 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
823 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT TIMING OF COLD FRONT BRINGS IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AROUND 9 PM...PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS BETWEEN 10PM
AND 11 PM...AND CLEARING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 1 AM IN THE
NORTH AND 2 AM IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES FALL OFF RAPIDLY INTO
THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS EXPECTED
TOWARDS DAWN.
WILD CARD IN ALL THIS IS THE CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG THE AXIS
AND SOUTH OF A 170 KT JET MAX COVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH WITH THE JET MAX PER UPPER LEVEL RH
FORECASTS...SO SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD DAWN WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN -5 AND -10 AS STEEPENING LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT ALLOW
MIXING UP TO 20-25 KT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
UPSTREAM OBS SHOW BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR KMSN AROUND
05Z...KUES AROUND 07Z...KMKE AND KENW BETWEEN 08Z AND 0830Z.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP NW
WINDS GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WINDS WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND FRONT WHICH WILL REACH THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO 25-26 KNOT WINDS AROUND 900 FT
ON RAP SOUNDINGS...WITH 18Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING FREQUENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THEN
SLOWLY EASING. NO CHANGE TO TIMING OF ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
DRIER AIR WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHED. THUS...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. INCREASING
WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SKY COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT... BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH AROUND 8 AM AND THEN ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE AXIS IS STILL UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE QUITE COLD...IT WILL BE COLDER TO THE WEST...UNDER THE RIDGE.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 BELOW...PROBABLY NOT LOW ENOUGH
FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST WHILE A TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE TROF WILL BE DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EVENING
AS AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXITING
RIDGE WILL BRING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH RIDING LIKELY
DOMINATING. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
IT/S A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW. SO SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS MILD AND ON THE QUIET
SIDE. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOME OF
OUR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS QUITE A RANGE. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK HITTING THE 50S...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE RESERVED...STICKING WITH 30S AND 4OS. WILL TAKE THE
COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW. IT/S A LONG WAY OFF. BUT...ITS THE
TIME OF YEAR FOR BIG TEMP SWINGS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH LATE EVENING UNTIL
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES. LOOK FOR GUSTY WNW WINDS AND SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
LOOK FOR INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1030 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED TO UPGRADE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. JET INDUCED BANDED SNOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY AND STREAK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR IS TOO SHALLOW AND LIFT IS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. STARTING TO
SEE EVIDENCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN CDOT
CAMS ALONG I-25...AND SUSPECT THIS IS ALSO HAPPENING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER...THOUGH NETWORK OF CAMERAS AND SFC OBS MUCH MORE
SPARSE DOWN THAT WAY. THINGS GETTING PRETTY ICY IN THE PUEBLO
AREA...ON SIDEWALKS AND COLD SURFACES...AND THINK UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL.
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE SECONDARY SURGE OF THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST CO
AFTER 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CO. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE AS
DIV-Q FIELDS SHOW MAIN FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND WILL BE
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROF AXIS...AND SECONDARY WAVE
STAYS MAINLY UP TO THE NORTH. STILL...AS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEEPENS
BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WETS AND
SANGRES SHOULD FAIR WELL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY KEEPING ADVISORIES UP.
AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF ICY ROADS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT NORTHERN
PORTIONS (SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PERHAPS PUEBLO COUNTIES) MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THAT...BUT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AS NEW RUNS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND PUEBLO AND PUEBLO WEST.
RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD
ENOUGH LAYER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF SNOW BAND TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...WE COULD GET SOME SEEDER
FEEDER EFFECTS WHICH WILL QUICKLY CONVERT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. RAP INDICATES TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP WITHIN THE SATURATED
LAYER TO -10C OR COLDER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONCE THE
SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES IN...IT WILL BE AN ABRUPT CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. THEREFORE...JUST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE
THIS EVENING TO CONTEND WITH. MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADE FOR PUEBLO COUNTY ASSOC WITH ICING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS FREMONT AND
TELLER COUNTY. BOTH HRRR AND RAP13 DEPICT THE BAND OF SNOW OUT
THERE NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOC
WITH UPGLIDE. THIS BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HAD TO MAKE A CORRECTION TO THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
...SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALONG THE S MTNS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR THESE REGIONS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN I HAVE IS OVER FAR SE PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STATE OF CO WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
OCCURRING OVER BACA COUNTY. FOR NOW....HAVE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THIS REGION AND WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEAVY SNOW.
I HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNINGS FOR THE C MTNS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
SAN JUANS...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW THIS
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.
COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THE 2NDRY URGE WILL EVEN
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS 2NDRY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 3 AM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW...
RUSH HOUR IS GOING TO BE A MESS OVER THE REGION. STEADY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND ADJ MTNS AFTER
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH WINDCHILLS RANGING BETWEEN +5F
AND -10F ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES THE SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION/RATON MESA REGION UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUM SNOW LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.
OVERALL...
I EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS...AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SNOW BAND. THE S MTNS SHOULD SEE 4 TO 10
INCH AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORABLE...THEN
WE COULD SEE DEEPER AMOUNTS OF FLUFF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO IT LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH WED EVE.
THEREFORE...STAGGERED THE POPS TO SHOW THEM FINALLY DIMINISHING
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE IN WITH
DOWNWARD FORCING HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 5 TO -10 DEG RANGE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US AND HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS A HINT OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR THE 30S ON
THU...40S FRI AND SAT...THEN 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR SUN THROUGH
TUE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL. THIS SNOW
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
KCOS...LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY 11Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY AS THE FRONT PASSES.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KPUB...FREEZING DRIZZLE...FOG AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES...AND POSSIBLY AREA
RUNWAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z WITH LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ083-
085>088-094-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
905 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED TO UPGRADE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STILL IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM WHICH IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. JET INDUCED BANDED SNOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY AND STREAK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR IS TOO SHALLOW AND LIFT IS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. STARTING TO
SEE EVIDENCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN CDOT
CAMS ALONG I-25...AND SUSPECT THIS IS ALSO HAPPENING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER...THOUGH NETWORK OF CAMERAS AND SFC OBS MUCH MORE
SPARSE DOWN THAT WAY. THINGS GETTING PRETTY ICY IN THE PUEBLO
AREA...ON SIDEWALKS AND COLD SURFACES...AND THINK UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL.
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE SECONDARY SURGE OF THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST CO
AFTER 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CO. THIS DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE AS
DIV-Q FIELDS SHOW MAIN FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND WILL BE
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROF AXIS...AND SECONDARY WAVE
STAYS MAINLY UP TO THE NORTH. STILL...AS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEEPENS
BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSPECT THAT SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WETS AND
SANGRES SHOULD FAIR WELL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY KEEPING ADVISORIES UP.
AND ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF ICY ROADS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SUSPECT THAT NORTHERN
PORTIONS (SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PERHAPS PUEBLO COUNTIES) MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THAT...BUT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS REFINE TIMING AS NEW RUNS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND PUEBLO AND PUEBLO WEST.
RAP SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD
ENOUGH LAYER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF SNOW BAND TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...WE COULD GET SOME SEEDER
FEEDER EFFECTS WHICH WILL QUICKLY CONVERT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
SNOW. RAP INDICATES TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP WITHIN THE SATURATED
LAYER TO -10C OR COLDER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONCE THE
SECONDARY COLD SURGE MOVES IN...IT WILL BE AN ABRUPT CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. THEREFORE...JUST A NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE
THIS EVENING TO CONTEND WITH. MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADE FOR PUEBLO COUNTY ASSOC WITH ICING. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS FREMONT AND
TELLER COUNTY. BOTH HRRR AND RAP13 DEPICT THE BAND OF SNOW OUT
THERE NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOC
WITH UPGLIDE. THIS BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
HAD TO MAKE A CORRECTION TO THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
...SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. OTHER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALONG THE S MTNS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR THESE REGIONS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS A 2NDRY SURGE OF COLD AIR PLOWS INTO THE REGION...AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN I HAVE IS OVER FAR SE PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A RATHER HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STATE OF CO WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
OCCURRING OVER BACA COUNTY. FOR NOW....HAVE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THIS REGION AND WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEAVY SNOW.
I HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNINGS FOR THE C MTNS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
SAN JUANS...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING...SO WILL ALLOW THIS
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM.
COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THE 2NDRY URGE WILL EVEN
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS 2NDRY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 3 AM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
TOMORROW...
RUSH HOUR IS GOING TO BE A MESS OVER THE REGION. STEADY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND ADJ MTNS AFTER
SUNRISE. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH WINDCHILLS RANGING BETWEEN +5F
AND -10F ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE SNOW UNTIL MIDDAY ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASES THE SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION/RATON MESA REGION UNTIL AFTERNOON.
THE S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FAR S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACCUM SNOW LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.
OVERALL...
I EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THIS
EVENT. AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS...AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SNOW BAND. THE S MTNS SHOULD SEE 4 TO 10
INCH AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORABLE...THEN
WE COULD SEE DEEPER AMOUNTS OF FLUFF.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO IT LOOKS AS IF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH WED EVE.
THEREFORE...STAGGERED THE POPS TO SHOW THEM FINALLY DIMINISHING
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE IN WITH
DOWNWARD FORCING HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES...WHICH LEADS TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 5 TO -10 DEG RANGE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN US AND HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE STATE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS A HINT OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS ON THU...AND AGAIN ON SAT...SO INCLUDED THAT IN THE WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR THE 30S ON
THU...40S FRI AND SAT...THEN 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR SUN THROUGH
TUE. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB
AND LAST INTO TOMORROW. THE HEAVIER SNOW FOR BOTH TAF SITES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL BEGIN AT KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AT
PUEBLO LATER TONIGHT.
KALS...VFR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHICH COULD BRING OCNL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ083-
085>088-094-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ081-082-
084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
436 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ORLANDO TODAY...
CURRENT-TODAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.
PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE HRRR LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEING PUSHED ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH AND PORT
CANAVERAL AND INLAND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE. SOUTHERLY WIND
AND LESS CLOUD COVER INLAND HIGHS IN MID 80S AND REACHING THE
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. HIGHS AT THE COAST LOW AND MID
80S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE OCEAN STAYS AROUND.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA RETREATS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREAS AND
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH.
THU...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH WARM S/SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE WILL BE A SMALL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LOOKS QUITE DRY SO
RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING PEAK HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO TODAY...STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHY OF ANY RECORDS. IF
THERE IS MORE SFC HEATING THAN EXPECTED...DAYTONA COULD REACH
THEIR RECORD HIGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
THU NIGHT...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENT FL. A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OF COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL
20 POP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LATE.
FRI...LOW CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE
SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL FOR DAB/LEE WITH HIGHS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OUR FORECAST OF LOWER 70S
FOR ORLANDO METRO MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND THIS IS ALREADY 5 DEGREES
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THERE IS THE BEST (30 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SAT-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
FL SAT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN
NEAR CENT FL. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND BE MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND BUT NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 60S BOTH SAT-SUN ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTH FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MIST AND FOG THROUGH 14Z THEN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENTLY BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
12 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO GEORGIA...ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.
THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY FLOW THU 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS SOUTH FL FRI. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH WINDS LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15 KNOTS THU NIGHT BUT A STRONGER PRES GRAD WILL BRING NEAR
20 KNOTS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. SO
SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN
INCREASE IN SE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
ORLANDO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO EQUAL OR BREAK THEIR RECORD TODAY.
DAB 4-MAR 88 1953
MCO 4-MAR 88 1989
MLB 4-MAR 87 1982
VRB 4-MAR 89 2001
DAB 5-MAR 87 1985
MCO 5-MAR 90 1929
MLB 5-MAR 88 1982
VRB 5-MAR 89 2003
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 64 83 63 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 88 65 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 84 68 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 85 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 87 66 85 62 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 87 65 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 87 66 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 85 67 84 64 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY
AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL. IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.
PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.
TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
20
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 60 62 32 / 40 80 80 10
ATLANTA 71 53 55 30 / 40 90 100 10
BLAIRSVILLE 65 45 46 26 / 70 100 100 10
CARTERSVILLE 72 42 44 26 / 60 100 100 5
COLUMBUS 76 63 64 35 / 20 80 80 10
GAINESVILLE 69 54 56 30 / 60 100 100 10
MACON 78 63 66 37 / 20 60 80 10
ROME 70 40 42 24 / 70 100 100 5
PEACHTREE CITY 73 57 58 30 / 40 90 90 10
VIDALIA 81 62 77 41 / 10 20 70 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/
UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
16
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.
IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.
SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.
AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 73 58 59 31 / 10 60 70 10
ATLANTA 72 50 53 29 / 20 70 70 5
BLAIRSVILLE 65 44 47 24 / 50 80 70 5
CARTERSVILLE 71 41 44 26 / 40 80 70 5
COLUMBUS 75 59 61 34 / 10 60 60 20
GAINESVILLE 69 51 53 29 / 30 80 70 5
MACON 77 62 63 36 / 5 40 60 30
ROME 71 38 41 25 / 50 90 70 5
PEACHTREE CITY 73 54 56 30 / 20 70 70 5
VIDALIA 81 63 73 41 / 5 10 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
316 AM CST
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH PUSH OF COLDER ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
HAS BEEN GRADUAL. AREA OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SHARPER
GRADIENT TO COLDER/DRIER TEMP/DEW POINT NOTED IN 08Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS FROM EAST CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHWEST IL AND NORTHERN
MO...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE TREND RATHER
FLAT TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES RISE OVER MORNING LOWS NEAR 10
ABOVE NORTHWEST...AND RELATIVELY STEADY READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. PARTIAL CLEARING WAS WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER MINOR
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
RESULTING HEIGHT RISES AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL FINALLY
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20 C. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL WHERE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WHILE SOME PATCHY CLOUD COVER
AND MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. DESPITE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...SHALLOW MIXING OF COLD AIR MASS
WITHIN THE PASSING SURFACE RIDGE LOOKS TO LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
LOW-MID TEENS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AGAIN INTO +/- SINGLE DIGITS...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALOFT WORK TO
PRODUCE STEADY/RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IL. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE -15 TO -20
DEGREE RANGE BOTH LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF TIME AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL.
ON FRIDAY...WHILE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST ALOFT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA ALBEIT WITH THOSE GUSTY WINDS
MAINTAINING A BRISK FEEL TO THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
316 AM CST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW MAINTAINS A
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN
RECENT WEEKS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DOES PASS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED FROM TEXAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE
RETURN FROM REACHING THE MIDWEST. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL MINOR
SHORT WAVES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NARROWING A SHORT WINDOW OF ANY
LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL IN OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY REGIME. MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING US BACK TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO WORKING ON MELTING
OUR SNOWPACK...MEDIUM RANGE TEMP FORECASTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK INDICATE SOME 50 DEGREE WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR OUR
WINTER-WEARY CWA.
RATZER
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890) 12 (1901)
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PICKUP AFTER DAYBREAK AND LAST AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNSET IF NOT A LITTLE LATER. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME
ON THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY SO TAPERED THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GUSTS
BACK INTO THE HIGH TEENS IN THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LOWER COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
MAY FORM LATER TODAY BUT FOR NOW EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN FEW TO
SCATTERED.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND GUST SPEEDS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
301 AM CST
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE LAKE
COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER GRADUALLY
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
GUSTS IN CHECK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
A band of MVFR cigs continues to track east across the forecast
area this morning but should push east of CMI and DEC by 13z
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Another
Arctic high was located to our northwest and will bring in
gusty northwest winds along with much colder and drier air
into the region over the next 12 to 24 hours. A weather system
over the Southern Plains this morning is expected to bring
snow to areas along and south of I-70 today into this evening
missing our TAF sites, but close enough to bring some mid and
high level cloud cover during the day and into early this eve.
Surface winds will be out of the northwest to north at 12 to
17 kts with a few gusts around 22 kts at times into the
afternoon, before we see winds begin to diminish after 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
were in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MVFR ceilings temporarily cleared at the central Illinois
terminals this evening: however, another patch of lower clouds is
noted on 05z satellite imagery along/west of the Illinois River.
These clouds will spread eastward over the next couple of hours
before clearing out once again later tonight. Latest HRRR suggests
MVFR ceilings will depart KPIA by 09z, then further east to KCMI
by around 13z. Even when the lower clouds exit, a mid-level cloud
deck at 12000-15000ft will remain as low pressure tracks along a
frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River. Any associated
precip will remain south of the central Illinois terminals,
although overcast conditions will persist through the entire 06z
TAF period. Northwesterly winds will gust to between 15 and 20kt
tonight through Wednesday afternoon before subsiding to less than
10kt by Wednesday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
Corrected spelling error in first paragraph of Short Term
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
818 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND COLDER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RATE OF COOLING WILL INCREASE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO
EXPECTED LOWS BY DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SCATTERED
IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE OVER IN ITS PLACE SO
ANY CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY.
MDB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT BAGGY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND USHER IN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR MASS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE INTO THE EARLY-MID EVENING ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS HANGING
AROUND AND LIKELY RESULTING IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS AND HAVE GONE A
BIT ABOVE HOURLY GUIDANCE TEMPS HANGING ONTO 30S INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE BOTTOM DROPS OUT LATE TONIGHT.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING SKIES TO GO CLEAR.
A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LOOK TO BE ON TAP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS POTENTIAL TO GIVE
CHICAGO`S RECORD LOW A RUN FOR ITS MONEY...THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD BE RATHER EXTENSIVE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP A BIT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR FULL FRIGID POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY LATE
NIGHT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR LAST MINUTE DROPS IN TEMPS. ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BE NEAR BY THURSDAY WITH HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS COULD THREATEN
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS. FULL SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH LOWER ALBEDO IN
CHICAGO AND RFD METRO AREAS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHS EVER SO SLIGHTLY UPWARD.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
247 PM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS THAT SEE TEMPERATURES
CRASH DURING THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH. HIGH DOES SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OFF AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND DID
REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH A TREND TO
NORMAL AND THEN POTENTIALLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG MARCH SUN AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THIS WEEKEND
DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHIPPING AWAY AT THE
DEEP SNOW PACK/GLACIER THAT HAS BLANKETED THE REGION SINCE THE EARLY
FEBRUARY BLIZZARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...THE QUICKER THE SNOW PACK MELTS THE WARMER
TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS A MEAN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OF
THE NATION`S MID SECTION.
IZZI
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.
WED 3/4 THU 3/5
ROCKFORD
RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*
CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873) 0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX 17 (1890) 12 (1901)
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A MODEST NORTHWEST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS DESK IS
ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THOUGH A CLEARING LINE WAS NOTED
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN THOUGH HAS SINCE
BECOME SHROUDED UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS. BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...WOULD EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
WIND GUST SPEEDS WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUNDAY...SCHC RAIN OR SNOW OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS PSBL.
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
301 AM CST
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE LAKE
COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER GRADUALLY
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
GUSTS IN CHECK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
2am surface analysis indicates the cold front has shifted south of
the Ohio River with another surge of Arctic air spilling southeast
into our area. Quite a range in temperatures across the Midwest
early this morning with single digits readings common over parts of
north central Iowa, while over far southeast Illinois, temperatures
will in the mid to upper 30s. The aforementioned cold front will
be located south of the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours
with models indicating a rather tight baroclinic zone along either
side of the boundary with several weak surface waves moving east
along the thermal gradient producing periodic precip chances to the
north which will include parts of the I-70 corridor through early
tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest some precip-type issues for the first few
hours just after dawn before a deep enough cold layer settles in
from the northwest changing any wintry mix over to snow. Latest 06z
NAM-WRF soundings over southeast IL are a bit slower in breaking
down the elevated warm layer seen between the 850 and 750 mb layer.
This should continue to result in some melting of the ice crystals
before refreezing again as it falls through a rather deep low level
cold layer. This should result in some rain mixing with sleet, with
the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain this morning
before the precip changes over to snow by mid morning. Models
indicating we may see a brief lull in the precip later this morning
before the next wave of deep layer forcing accompanied by some
enhanced lift associated with the entrance region of a jet max at
300 mb moves across the area this afternoon into this evening. This
should produce a steady snowfall mainly south of I-70 with a tight
gradient in snowfall amounts with our counties in the far southeast
sections of the forecast area seeing around 3 to 4 inches, with
higher totals further south.
For the rest of central through east central Illinois, much colder
air will continue to push southeast into the area during the day
with not much response in temperatures. Guidance values look
reasonable across the north and central sections today with
afternoon temperatures not rising much with upper teens to low
20s common by mid-afternoon, while to the southeast, we should see
morning highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with the the mercury
slowly falling thru the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
Have made little change to the snow chances south of I-70 tonight,
mainly concentrating them through the evening with an additional
half to 1.5 inches along the highway 50 corridor. The other concern
for tonight is with the wind chills across the northwest. Deepening
upper trough currently dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley,
and will swing through Illinois with 850 mb temperatures around -18C
by Thursday morning. Late-season winter storm over the Ohio Valley
won`t be in a big hurry to leave, so winds will stay up some as an
area of high pressure moves southeast from the Dakotas. Clearing
line will advance southeast through the night, with the northwest
CWA mostly clear the longest, allowing temperatures to drop below
zero. Wind chills around -15 currently expected late tonight and
early Thursday from Galesburg to Toulon. As the -15 area has been
fluctuating in size recently, will hold off on a headline due to the
uncertainty in coverage area and borderline conditions.
The unseasonably cold air will continue into early Friday, but the
upper pattern after that is continuing to favor a steady and welcome
warming trend. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend, and an
increasing area of 50s is not far behind for early next week. While
some disturbances will move through the upper Midwest, flow from the
Gulf will be cut off due to a persistent surface high over the
Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. This will result in a dry
passage of these disturbances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MVFR ceilings temporarily cleared at the central Illinois
terminals this evening: however, another patch of lower clouds is
noted on 05z satellite imagery along/west of the Illinois River.
These clouds will spread eastward over the next couple of hours
before clearing out once again later tonight. Latest HRRR suggests
MVFR ceilings will depart KPIA by 09z, then further east to KCMI
by around 13z. Even when the lower clouds exit, a mid-level cloud
deck at 12000-15000ft will remain as low pressure tracks along a
frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River. Any associated
precip will remain south of the central Illinois terminals,
although overcast conditions will persist through the entire 06z
TAF period. Northwesterly winds will gust to between 15 and 20kt
tonight through Wednesday afternoon before subsiding to less than
10kt by Wednesday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR ILZ071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
918 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IN THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN PLACED IN THEIR TAFS AFTER 19Z. THE
BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITY IS IN THE KBMG AREA...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
530 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RADAR LOOP INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME...CURRENTLY IMPACTING ONLY THE KBMG TERMINALAT THIS TIME.
APPEARS BY ISSUANCE TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE AS
WELL.
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA/MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION PUSHING BACK INTO THE KBMG/KHUF/KIND AREAS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THESE TERMINALS
AFTER 041900Z. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR PROLONGED
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE KBMG
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE FEED.
OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS 310-330 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
RADAR LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE KIND TERMINAL. WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE BACK INTO
THE KIND AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY.
MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM...SO WILL PULL THEM FROM THE FORECAST ON THE UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
IT LOOKS LIKE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE
BEEN FAVORING IFR. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN OVER THE TERMINALS...SAVE LAF...BY ISSUANCE TIME. BY
13Z...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND AROUND
AND ABOVE KNOTS AFTER 13Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS IN
THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CATEGORY WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CATEGORY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. HAYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 24 7 38 / 80 80 10 0
GCK 15 24 6 38 / 60 60 10 0
EHA 16 23 10 39 / 70 70 10 0
LBL 17 24 9 38 / 80 80 10 0
HYS 15 28 6 40 / 50 50 0 0
P28 19 25 9 39 / 80 80 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-
062>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
929 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL DRAG TRAILING WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE BLENDED IN CMC-REGIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY TO REFLECT FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS NRN ZONES. WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
SHUNTED S OF THE REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COLD CLOUD TOPS
REFLECT THAT THESE WILL MAINLY BE HIGH CLOUDS IN NATURE AND
PROBABLY ONLY PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN. UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREV DISC...
THE STEADIER WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WAS EXITING THE AREA
AS OF 07Z. IN ITS WAKE...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE WAS SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS...SLEET...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. WITH
STEADIER PRECIPITATION NOW ENDED...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE DROPPED AS OF THE NEW PUBLIC PACKAGE
ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ENTERING WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AT 07Z WILL RACE EAST AND EXIT THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR
DEEPENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20
AT THE COAST TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO COASTAL MAINE SEES A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE STARVED WOULD BE A GOOD LABEL FOR THE THEME FOR ANY
SYSTEMS CROSSING OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
AFTER A COLD SHOT OF AIR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S EXPECTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS. THE JET
STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM CANADA.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE FEBRUARY...OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT BE BUILDING FROM
THE ARCTIC AND PLUNGING SOUTHWARD. RATHER...THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED WITH TIME AFTER CROSSING NORTH AMERICA.
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THREE SEPARATE SYSTEM
PASSAGES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
AGAIN...THESE WILL BE VERY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS...SO ONLY VERY
LIGHT SNOW...SNOW FLURRIES OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY 15Z.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1118 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1053 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
Latest RAP soundings delay the precip changeover by a couple of
hours. Updated grids and products have been sent.
Kanofsky
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.
The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.
QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.
It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.
Ah spring...
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.
Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.
A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.
Truett/Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
KCOU AND KUIN TAF sites will see MVFR ceilings until around 12Z.
VFR ceilings thereafter as drier air filters in with another
arctic airmass. Northwest winds will increase and then become
gusty after daybreak at all TAF sites. KSTL area TAF sites will
experience IFR visibilities at times for the first several hours
as rain, possibly mixed with some sleet at times, moves over the
region. Otherwise expect MVFR visibilities, with precip changing
to light snow by around 10Z. Precip should end by around 16Z.
Ceilings will remain in the MVFR range through around 16Z then
improve to VFR.
Specifics for KSTL: Northwest winds will increase and then become
gusty after daybreak as arctic airmass moves into the region.
Expect IFR visibilities at times for the first several hours as
rain, possibly mixed with some sleet at times, moves over the
region. Otherwise expect MVFR visibilities, with precip changing
to light snow by around 10Z. Precip should end by around 16Z.
Ceilings will remain in the MVFR range through around 16Z then
improve to VFR.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Jefferson MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1054 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1053 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
Latest RAP soundings delay the precip changeover by a couple of
hours. Updated grids and products have been sent.
Kanofsky
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.
The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.
QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.
It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.
Ah spring...
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.
Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.
A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.
Truett/Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
MVFR ceilings will last through much of the night at all TAF
sites as cold front pushes through and stratus deck remains. KUIN
and KCOU will likely be VFR by 10-13Z Wednesday, then VFR ceilings
reach KSTL TAF sites by around 16Z. Will have to watch radar and
surface reports carefully this evening as there is some chance
that precip aloft now seen on regional radars may reach the surface at
KSTL area TAF sites. For now, it appears a dry layer at 6K to 8K
feet may keep this from happening so have left TAFS dry. Northwest
winds behind the front will become gusty and last into Wednesday.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings expected until 16Z. Cold front
should reach TAF site by around 06Z, and north winds behind the
cold front will increase to around 14 knots and become gusty.
Have kept TAF dry for now, but will have to watch surface reports
to see if precip aloft now seen on radar begins reaching the
ground this evening. Expect dry air aloft to keep most precip just
to the south of KSTL on Wednesday, but it is a close call.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-
Jefferson MO-Washington MO.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
840 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THERE IS SOME
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS
THIS MORNING FROM WEAK QG FORCING IN THE NW FLOW CREATING A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE THERE. WILL ADD THIS FOR THE MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HITTING OUT BY BAKER...SO WILL LET IT GO THROUGH ITS VALID PERIOD
OF 11 AM. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
WE EXPECT SOME CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TODAY AND THAT
COULD YIELD BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
0/U 00/N 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
0/U 00/N 01/B 11/B 10/U 00/N 00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
0/U 00/B 00/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
0/B 00/B 00/B 21/B 11/B 00/U 00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
1/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST
INTO MID AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
0/U 00/N 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
0/B 00/N 01/B 11/B 10/U 00/N 00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
0/U 00/B 00/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
0/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
0/B 00/B 00/B 21/B 11/B 00/U 00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
0/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
927 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FLURRY OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
ONLY BRIEF ACTIVITY EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES. BORSUM
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.
TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.
EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
00/B 00/N 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
10/B 00/N 01/B 21/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
00/U 00/B 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
20/U 00/B 01/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
10/B 00/B 00/B 21/B 10/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
20/B 00/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 00/U 00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB IS DECREASING SLOWLY AND
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING
LIFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FLURRIES THIS MORNING UNTIL SKIES
CLEAR BY MID MORNING. NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN. THE NAM WIND AND MOISTURE
FIELDS 700MB AND BELOW SUGGEST SOME LATERAL OR TRANSVERSE
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BLENDED MODEL QPF EVEN INDICATES SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB FLURRIES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY MODE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY
SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS. THE RAP WAS ACTUALLY A
BIT TOO COLD WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST MONDAY SO THE WARMER SOLN
MIGHT BE BEST TODAY.
1030 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER
WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE
RETURN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING/EXPANDING EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST DAY OF WARM AIR WITH ONLY WARMER DAYS TO FOLLOW.
850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO BY 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL SEE A FEW NW FLOW CLIPPERS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY TEMPS HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE CLIPPERS AS AIR MASS
BEHIND EACH WAVE IS PACIFIC. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN
THE 20S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP RADIATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCT-BKN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NORTH.
SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AND INTO WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB IS DECREASING SLOWLY AND
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING
LIFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FLURRIES THIS MORNING UNTIL SKIES
CLEAR BY MID MORNING. NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN. THE NAM WIND AND MOISTURE
FIELDS 700MB AND BELOW SUGGEST SOME LATERAL OR TRANSVERSE
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BLENDED MODEL QPF EVEN INDICATES SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB FLURRIES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY MODE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY
SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS. THE RAP WAS ACTUALLY A
BIT TOO COLD WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST MONDAY SO THE WARMER SOLN
MIGHT BE BEST TODAY.
1030 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER
WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE
RETURN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING/EXPANDING EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST DAY OF WARM AIR WITH ONLY WARMER DAYS TO FOLLOW.
850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO BY 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL SEE A FEW NW FLOW CLIPPERS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY TEMPS HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE CLIPPERS AS AIR MASS
BEHIND EACH WAVE IS PACIFIC. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN
THE 20S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP RADIATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE RISK FOR INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UNTIL ABOUT 10Z...
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO 3SM AND POSSIBLE LOWER AT TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WINNIPEG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AD RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
SNOW WAS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MODELS AGREE THAT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
BAND WILL NOT LAST LONG...AROUND 3 OR 4 HOURS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO WITHIN THIS BAND. INITIALLY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
BY 20 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...DEEP LIFT WILL
INCREASE...MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 06Z OR
SO. LIFT WILL BE WEAKER TO THE NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. SHOULD
SEE A FAIRLY QUICK TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. THE LATEST RAP MODEL INDICATES A
LITTLE BETTER LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ /EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE JUST
ABOVE THE DGZ/ SO THAT GAVE A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE...AND WILL TAKE
LOW END LIKELY POPS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEW 18Z NAM MODEL
RUN.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE. STILL PRETTY COLD WEDNESDAY...WITH H850MB NOT WARMING MUCH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND STAYING WELL BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. CAN SEE SOME SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY
BUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GROUND LOOKS PRETTY
BARE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WARMER DRIER AIR MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER
PATTERN LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST PATTERN SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PULL ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLOW
CLIMB THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
THE RISK FOR INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. UNTIL ABOUT 10Z...
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO 3SM AND POSSIBLE LOWER AT TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT IS STILL SOUTH OF CHARLESTON
BUT IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 15 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. DENSE FOG
CONTINUES AND PROBABLY WON`T IMPROVE INLAND UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OTHER
THAN CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS...FEW EDITS
WERE NEEDED ON THIS LAST NEAR-TERM UPDATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO RAISE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS
THAT CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR WEDGE. I PROMISE...THIS WEDGE
WILL BREAK! MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY OPTIMISTIC IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ITS
EVENTUAL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EVEN THE 1ST LOOK AT 0000Z
GUIDANCE HAS IT PARTIALLY THRU THE FA AT THIS TIME. ANYWAY...WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOWER INLAND AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT.
LATEST KLTX VWP DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA TO DISPLAY THE WINDS AT 1K
FT...INDICATIVE OF NO CLOUDS OTHER THEN THE DENSE FOG AT THE SFC
AND/OR A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS UNRECOGNIZABLE BY THE
KLTX VWP. THUS...ONCE THE WEDGE FINALLY BREAKS...IT SHOULD DO SO IN
A QUICK MANNER.
ONCE AGAIN CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS...FURTHER
REDUCING THEM TO EITHER NONE AT ALL OR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED AGAIN...WITH EITHER STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
AIR WEDNESDAY AMID WHAT HAS BEEN A FRIGID WINTER...WITH FEBRUARY
RANKING AS THE 5TH COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 141 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING
WHICH CRUNCHES OUT TO ABOUT A 1 IN 34 YEAR OCCURRENCE OF COLD. THE
OTHER NOTABLE HIGHLIGHT IS RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN
FOLLOWED BY A BITING INTRUSION OF GLACIAL AIR AND LINGERING PCPN.
STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM THE BULK OF IT THURSDAY...LOOKS
TO BE NEARLY A HALF INCH ACROSS SE NC AND LOCALITIES WEST OF I-95
AND CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NE SC AND COASTAL SC. POPPED
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THURSDAY GIVEN JET SUPPORT AND SPC DAY
3 OUTLOOK.
SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROPS...WHERE MAXIMUMS THURSDAY MINUS
MINIMUMS FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND
JUST A FRESH REMINDER OLD MAN WINTER STILL HAS BREATHINGS INTO
EARLY MARCH. AN OVERLAP OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING PCPN WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW 8Z-10Z
OR 3AM- 5AM EARLY FRIDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH TROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
SIGNS OF RELAXING BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE
TROUGH USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDES ALONG THE
OLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WARRANTING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
MARCH SUNSHINE WONT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO WARM THINGS UP WITH
HIGHS ONLY THE 50S BUT THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MIDDLE
30S. LETHARGIC WARMUP CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SURFACE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VERY LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXIST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO TRANSIT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY TAKING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK TO LIFT PAST THE ILM AND LBT AIRPORTS. BEHIND THE FRONT
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE AT THE LBT/FLO/ILM AIRPORTS...HOWEVER
CRE/MYR MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUP AS DENSE SEA FOG GENERATED BY THE
INTERACTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH VERY COLD NEARSHORE OCEAN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
ACCELERATING SOUTH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL NOT MIX DOWN
EFFECTIVELY TO THE GROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. UNTIL
THEN THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AS 1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING IFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST
UPDATE WAS TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THROWING OUT THE 00Z GFS MODEL WHICH HAS NO CLUE WHERE THE FRONT
IS...THE 00Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SHOW SURFACE
WINDS VERY SLOW TO INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE VERY COLD SEA SURFACE WATERS.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY OUT THERE IS 7-SECOND SWELL BEING PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFRIENDLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL THURSDAY...AS
THE WARM AIR MAY STRUGGLE REACHING THE COLD DENSE AIR ABOVE THE
CHILLY SSTS IN PLACE. IF NOT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN CERTAINLY BEHIND IT...AS VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS OVER THE WATERS...WITH AT A MINIMUM 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED
LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER HAZARD PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG AS BALMY AIR TRACKS OVER THE
FRIGID WATERS...REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES. RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT MAY ALSO RESTRICT LINE OF SIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS INITIALLY AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES THIS
SEASON THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES IN WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING TO AROUND TEN KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. IF ANYTHING WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT WITH NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE FEATURES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY...MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS. BY LATER SATURDAY VALUES DROP TO 1-3
FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053-055.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1148 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH
OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOWERED POPS A BIT FASTER NORTH. MODELS SHOW PRECIP ALL
BUT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN COMING BACK TO
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO DIDNT WANT TO END PRECIP TOO QUICK SOUTH.
ALSO LOWERED ANY MENTION OF SNOW ACCUM DOWN TO LITTLE OR NO.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS WELL BEGINNING WITH CURRENT READINGS AND
BLENDING THEM INTO HRRR MORNING FORECAST TEMPS.
ORIGINAL...WARMER AIR HAS TAKEN A LITTLE BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE BUT
IS STILL PUSHING NORTHWARD. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELYRIA
TO MEDINA TO WARREN LOOK TO BE IN THE CLEAR FOR ADDITIONAL
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS WILL
REMAIN SLICK.
OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE OHIO
UNTIL 6 PM AND EXTENDED NW PA UNTIL 9 PM. IT IS EXPECTED THESE
LOCATIONS WILL ALL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 3 AM OR LATER. THIS
LATE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN DECENT LIFT
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM. AT WORST CASE AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL AT LEAST 10 PM THEN
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A
RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT BUT A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO WILL POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SINCE AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRY THINGS OUT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REGION DIPS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. COLD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
RECOVERING INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
BELOW ZERO IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A BREAKDOWN OF LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE TROUGH
WILL VERY GRADUALLY LIFT MORE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A FEW
MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS...YET THESE VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED
DISTURBANCES WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY
TURNING OVER TO RAIN AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH...THEY WILL FEEL NOTABLY WARMER THAN WE`VE SEEN IN SOME
TIME AS SAT-TUE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 32F. STILL FEEL THE GUIDANCE`S
CLIMATOLOGY BIAS IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TOO
PREMATURELY SAT/SUN...COULD SEE IT HAPPEN TUE AS THE RIDGING BEGINS
IN THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS MAY SCOOT ACROSS MANSFIELD AND
AKRON CANTON BUT WILL LEAVE THEM DRY FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE WHOLE
AREA SLIDES SOUTH OF THOSE TWO LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT IT IS GOING TO TAKE
QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER FOR MFD...CAK YNG LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU THEN IMPROVE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE REMAINED UNDER 15KT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TURN TO THE SW AND THEN
W. AFTER THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY...WIND SPEEDS
WILL SUBSIDE AND REMAIN AROUND 15KT THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AS ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LL JET AND ASSOC PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
PLAIN RAIN OVR MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AS OF 04Z.
MEANWHILE...FZRA CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA. MDL SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE LOW LVL COLD AIR WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAST OF THE FZRA ENDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
NE OF KIPT BTWN 06Z-09Z.
BASED ON ASOS ICE ACCRETIONS THRU 02Z AND UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE DOWNGRADED ICE STORM WARNING TO A WINT WX ADV ACROSS
THE N MTNS. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN WINT WX ADV
THRU 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...DUE TO POTENTIAL
OF RESIDUAL ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS. SPOTTER FROM WARREN CO
CONFIRMED THE ICY ROADS WITH TEMPS ABV 32F AT 01Z. LOW LVL COLD
AIR WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST OF THE MTNS...SO HAVE KEPT ADV IN
PLACE THRU 12Z...BUT MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO CANCEL EARLY.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 04Z ALREADY SHOWING PRECIP TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND NR TERM MDL DATA INDICATES THE
FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT /IN THE FORM OF RAIN/ WILL BE
OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE SWRLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER
PWATS INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW PA. MAY HAVE TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM KJST SOUTHWARD...WHERE
RAINFALL AND TEMPS APPROACHING 50F COULD WILL PRODUCE SIG
SNOWMELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF PA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING PRECIP REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA IN
REGION OF 8-7H FGEN FORCING. MDL BLYR TEMPS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
FALL AS LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MDL
SOUNDINGS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH APPEARS
POSSIBLE BY WED EVENING. DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A MAINLY DRY DAY THERE WITH JUST A CHC OF -SHSN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS SUPPORTING A BROAD STRIPE OF PCPN
ALONG A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF PHASING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE DSW/ROCKIES ON WED AND MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VLY AND MID ATLC ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS AND SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY THURS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE INTO A
DEEPENING COLD SECTOR ALONG/NORTH OF THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PA WED NGT INTO THURS. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH IS LKLY TIED TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THAT SAID...THE
CONSENSUS FCST AXIS OF MAX QPF /0.50 INCH OR GREATER/ HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAINTED OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...USED A MULTI MODEL BLEND WITH PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTION
FACTOR TO DERIVE GRIDDED QPF AMTS WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE COLUMN WILL BE
IN A STATE OF TRANSITION AND COOLING DOWN FROM NW TO SE WED-WED
NGT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. A PERIOD OF SLEET
MAY IMPACT FCST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE DURATION A KEY FACTOR
IN THIS FCST. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND GREATEST RISK IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW/6+ INCHES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ROBUST
WPC ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
MAINLY RAIN NOW IN MOST AREAS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE OH VLY WILL KEEP A LARGE
AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. JST WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN...BUT GROUND AND OBJECT
TEMPS LIKELY STILL COLD. THE OTHER FACTOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE LLWS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO JUST RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR A SHORT TIME. MANY AREAS MAY JUST SEE NOTHING ONCE THE
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION SHUTS OFF.
FOR WED...RAIN WILL GO BACK TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. HARD TO SEE
CONDITIONS BEING VERY GOOD.
VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
WED INTO THU. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE WED INTO THU...LIKELY GIVING
AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA SOME SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
WINDS...SNOW...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
POOR CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SIG REDUCTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ012-
018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 74 32 37 27 / 20 80 60 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 76 37 41 30 / 20 40 70 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 66 41 42 35 / 20 30 50 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.
545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.
OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.
THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK..
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.
MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.
THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.
THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.
WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.
THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK..
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.
MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.
THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.
THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.
WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...GAINES/DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.
AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.
THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 5P.
OUTLOOK..
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.
MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.
THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.
THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.
WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY 3/6
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7 1960
TTN 7 1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7 1978
MPO -5 1909
THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.
SATURDAY 3/7
RECORD LOWS
ACY 10 1890
PHL 9 1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1 1960
TTN 7 1890
GED 3 1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5
KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
012-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/DRAG 438
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE... 438
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
341 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.
TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032000Z IND TAF/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VIRGA ACROSS THE IND TAF SITE WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SATURATED THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ESSENTIALLY A NOWCASTING ISSUE AT
THIS POINT. BASED ON HRRR AND NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...HAVE
TIGHTENED UP GRADIENT EVEN MORE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVELY
DECREASING EXPECTED SNOW HERE IN THE INDY METRO DOWN TO A FEW
TENTHS AT BEST. AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME ACROSS THE
SOUTH...1 TO 3 ALONG A SULLIVAN TO BLOOMINGTON AND GREENSBURG
LINE...AND 2 TO 5 ALONG A VINCENNES TO NORTH VERNON LINE. COULD
SEE ISOLATED SPOTS PUSH 6 ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THE SNOW OUT FASTER LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER END.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AS IS AS CHANGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
MINOR AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION.
TIGHTENED UP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY CONSENSUS TEMPS ON
MINS TONIGHT...WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
146 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.
ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SEVERAL INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
WARM OVER THE WEEKEND...FINALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING POPS THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY STAYED JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THUS FAR. THIS
WILL CUT DOWN ON EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. HRRR BRINGS
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND WILL BLEND MORNING
ADJUSTMENTS INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO LIKELY REPRESENT OR BE VERY NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW.
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
LOWERED POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE INTERESTING NOTE...RAP/HRRR ARE COMING IN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD TO SEE IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD.
340 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OBS AND DUAL POL DATA BOTH SHOWING SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND EVEN
GETTING A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AS WELL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
TWO PRIMARY ISSUES TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
DEALS WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ISSUE THEN FOCUSES ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WE WILL DISCUSS EACH IN TANDEM.
STEADIER PRECIP AT 08Z NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. LIGHTER ECHOES
EXTEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BUT APPEARS
LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SEEM
REASONABLE BUT NOW AS BRIGHT BANDING BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE SLEET
MIXING IN...AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING DISTORTED. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FROM DAVIESS CO NORTHEAST THROUGH JENNINGS CO THROUGH
1330Z. COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN WITH THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY CAUSING
SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AREA
OF THE PRECIP AND WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING. HRRR IN
PARTICULAR HAS PRECIP SHIELD ABOUT 40-50 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS SO FAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING THE
SLOWER TEMP FALLS BETTER. THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE RESULTED IN BOTH
THE RAP AND HRRR OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF EITHER LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SLEET OR SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL TO 32 AND LOWER
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...
BUT ANY SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS TEMP FALLS LAG THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL CREATE
SLICK CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO A MIX WITH SLEET
TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THEN BECOMES THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL
EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE THE THE BOUNDARY BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTHWEST HAVING A GREATER INFLUENCE.
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD
SET UP. AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN FURTHER NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A SWATH OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINCENNES-BLOOMINGTON-GREENSBURG LINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTIES TO
MAKE A RUN AT 6 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A WARNING. AM MORE COMFORTABLE TRANSITIONING THE WATCH TO AN
ADVISORY AND ADDING GREENE/MONROE/BARTHOLOMEW/DECATUR COUNTIES
CONSIDERING AMOUNTS ABOVE. ADVISORY WILL RUN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AS DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. COULD SEE 1 TO
PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES IN THE INDY METRO AND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH LINGERING
SNOWS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TEMPS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND OBS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MAY SEE
A SUBTLE BUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL LARGELY ENSURE TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S BY LATE DAY. ENDED UP CLOSER TO METMOS AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS BUT AS PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE WAVE AXIS ALOFT PASSES...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AS DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPS...ANY SUNSHINE WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO MODIFY THE RENEWED
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS. COLDEST HIGH RECORD OF 18 FOR
THURSDAY HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SNOWPACK STILL ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME
AREAS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED SHOULD INDY GO
SUBZERO...IT WOULD BE THE FIRST MARCH OCCURRENCE OF A BELOW ZERO
READING IN 31 YEARS. IT MAY ALSO BE THE LAST SUBZERO READING OF THE
SEASON AS CLIMATOLOGY STARTS WORKING AGAINST US AS WE GO INTO MID
MARCH. NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A POTENTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BE PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT IFR AT TIMES. BY 01Z THE SNOW WILL BE
OVER...CEILINGS WILL BE LOW END VFR...AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED.
IN THE NORTH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...DURING THE NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 10 THOUSAND FEET AND THEN BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS
DAYTIME AND 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FA OVRNGT IN TWO SUCCESSIVE
WVS...THE FIRST MID TO LATE EVE...AND A SECOND ARND DAYBREAK. THE
FIRST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLDNSS AND ISOLD SN SHWRS WITH
A COUPLE OF ST LAWRENCE STREAMERS BEING IMPLIED FOR NRN ME BY THE
LATEST HRRR HRLY SIM RADAR FCST GOING INTO THE OVRNGT. ANY ORGANIZATION
OF SN SHWR STREAMERS SHOULD WEAKEN LATE TNGT AS LLVL LAPSE RATES
DECREASE. JUST S OF THE FA...PRECIP WITH A SECOND WV OF LOW PRES
MOVG ENE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF
DOWNEAST COAST LATER TNGT INTO THU MORNING...WITH NRN EDGE OF THE
HI CLD SHIELD REACHING NWRD INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST ME.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MSLY SUNNY...OR BECOMING MSLY SUNNY
THU AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER FAIRLY
BRISK CONDITIONS...HI TEMPS THU WILL MAKE LMTD RECOVERY FROM LOWS
TNGT...AND WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY`S HIGHS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER CLR SKIES THU EVE AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
XTNDS WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL FOR MSLY
BROAD VLY AREAS LATE THU NGT WHILE HIER TRRN HOLDS ON ON TO A LGT
BREEZE. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE QUITE COLD...POTENTIALLY INTO THE
-20S DEG F OVR THE COLDEST NW VLY AREAS WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH THE LOWER 20S
DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SOME NORTHERN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NO MAJOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL LEVELS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN RISE TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR THRU THU NGT...WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CLGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD SN SHWRS OVR NRN MOST TAF SITES
LATE THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MVFR IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST INTO
THU AFTN...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051. OTHERWISE...WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING BACK OVR THE WATERS...A PD OF MDT FZG SPY IS POSSIBLE THU
NGT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS...WITH WV HTS THIS EVE RUNNING ABOUT
A FOOT OR TWO ABV GUIDANCE...THEN TO GUIDANCE BY MID THU MORN.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1243 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB IS DECREASING SLOWLY AND
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING
LIFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FLURRIES THIS MORNING UNTIL SKIES
CLEAR BY MID MORNING. NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN. THE NAM WIND AND MOISTURE
FIELDS 700MB AND BELOW SUGGEST SOME LATERAL OR TRANSVERSE
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BLENDED MODEL QPF EVEN INDICATES SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB FLURRIES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY MODE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY
SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS. THE RAP WAS ACTUALLY A
BIT TOO COLD WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST MONDAY SO THE WARMER SOLN
MIGHT BE BEST TODAY.
1030 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER
WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE
RETURN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING/EXPANDING EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST DAY OF WARM AIR WITH ONLY WARMER DAYS TO FOLLOW.
850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO BY 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL SEE A FEW NW FLOW CLIPPERS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY TEMPS HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE CLIPPERS AS AIR MASS
BEHIND EACH WAVE IS PACIFIC. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN
THE 20S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP RADIATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).
FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF
TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN
WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.
FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW).
FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECWMF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1210 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN UNDER MVFR WITH SOME PERIODS REDUCED TO
IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EVENTUALLY GOING VFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR TERMINALS... PRODUCING A WINTERY MIX OF BOTH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z,
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO SNOW.
AFTER 00Z, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW, WITH
SNOW WINDING DOWN TOWARD 06Z, AND COMPLETELY ENDING BY DAYLIGHT
12Z THURSDAY. HIGH SFC PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTH SFC WINDS THROUGH 12Z, THEN GOING LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY 18Z ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 21 37 21 / 80 50 10 10
HOBART OK 30 18 36 20 / 90 40 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 37 21 36 19 / 90 60 10 10
GAGE OK 24 11 38 20 / 60 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 26 16 35 21 / 70 30 10 10
DURANT OK 44 23 37 21 / 100 90 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
020-022>048-050>052.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>018-021.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/03/67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 21 37 21 / 80 50 10 10
HOBART OK 30 18 36 20 / 90 40 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 37 21 36 19 / 90 60 10 10
GAGE OK 24 11 38 20 / 60 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 26 16 35 21 / 70 30 10 10
DURANT OK 44 23 37 21 / 100 90 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
020-022>048-050>052.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>018-021.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE:
AFTER INGESTING NEW 12Z DATA AND LATEST ENSEMBLES...IT IS BECOMING
APPARENT THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE WARNING TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND LOWERED THE
OVERALL NUMBERS MORE IN LINE LATEST QPF/WWD SNOWFALL GUIDANCE.
STILL POSSIBLE THE WARNING CONFIGURATION IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND
MAY YET NEED FURTHER TRIMMING LATER THIS EVENING AS WE GATHER
NEWER ENSEMBLES AND HRRR DATA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH. TEMPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BRING A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW IN
JOHNSTOWN BY 20-22Z...ALTOONA/STATE COLLEGE 22-00Z...AND NOT UNTIL
03-6Z IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS. IT`S OVER THESE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PROBLEM WILL BE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
THAT IS EXPECTED WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ARRIVES.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SREF AND GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW 0F AND THE
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRYER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-049>053-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE:
AFTER INGESTING NEW 12Z DATA AND LATEST ENSEMBLES...IT IS BECOMING
APPARENT THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE WARNING TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND LOWERED THE
OVERALL NUMBERS MORE IN LINE LATEST QPF/WWD SNOWFALL GUIDANCE.
STILL POSSIBLE THE WARNING CONFIGURATION IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND
MAY YET NEED FURTHER TRIMMING LATER THIS EVENING AS WE GATHER
NEWER ENSEMBLES AND HRRR DATA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH. TEMPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BRING A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW IN
JOHNSTOWN BY 20-22Z...ALTOONA/STATE COLLEGE 22-00Z...AND NOT UNTIL
03-6Z IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS. IT`S OVER THESE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PROBLEM WILL BE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
THAT IS EXPECTED WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ARRIVES.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SREF AND GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC SURGES OF
OUR ENDLESS WINTER.
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS WEAK HIGH....CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...KEEPING THE REGION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND ONLY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES TO OUR
NORTH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
SO...KEPT THE POPS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPS STAY BELOW 0C.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
ONE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PROVE TO BE STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE IMPLIES.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND OUR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY....ABOVE NORMAL....BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A CHANGE. RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS...A GOOD SLOW
WAY TO MELT SNOW WITHOUT FLOODING.
THE NAEFSBC AND GEFSBC SUGGEST A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRYER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-049>053-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATER
TODAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE:
AFTER INGESTING NEW 12Z DATA AND LATEST ENSEMBLES...IT IS BECOMING
APPARENT THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE WARNING TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AND LOWERED THE
OVERALL NUMBERS MORE IN LINE LATEST QPF/WWD SNOWFALL GUIDANCE.
STILL POSSIBLE THE WARNING CONFIGURATION IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND
MAY YET NEED FURTHER TRIMMING LATER THIS EVENING AS WE GATHER
NEWER ENSEMBLES AND HRRR DATA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTH. TEMPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BRING A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW IN
JOHNSTOWN BY 20-22Z...ALTOONA/STATE COLLEGE 22-00Z...AND NOT UNTIL
03-6Z IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS. IT`S OVER THESE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PROBLEM WILL BE AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
THAT IS EXPECTED WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ARRIVES.
A STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT WILL SLIDE BY JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF POTENT
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SREF AND GEFS THREAT PAGES STILL PAINT MY FAR SERN ZONES AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF ON THE BACK SIDE UP INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
LATEST GEFS/SREF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WITH MUCH OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER...AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z NORTH OF I-80.
STILL YET ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MAX TEMPS SOME
20-30 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LATE-WINTER PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR THE SEASON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PATTERN SHOULD
DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MOST OF THE TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS AT EVEN WARMER TEMPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
WHAT IS HOPEFULLY THE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON SHOULD
ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LKLY TO BE
20-30F BELOW NORMAL WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS +/- ZERO DEGREES. SUCH
READINGS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DRYER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ017>019-049>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR