Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/24/15

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JUNEAU AK

 325 PM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY HAVE BEEN CALIBRATING THE
FORECAST FOR THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY
BEEN USING THE BRAKES ON IT, WHILE THE NAM REFUSES TO LET OFF THE
GAS PUMP. JUDGING BY SOME OF THE WIND PATTERNS AND HOW FOR THE
MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION HAS CEASED ACROSS LYNN CANAL DOWN TO
CROSS SOUND, WE PREFERRED SOME OF THE NAM BASED HIGH RES MODELS.
PAINTED RAIN LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SPREAD
IN THE FRONTAL BAND`S DIFFERENCES OF ARRIVAL TIME.

OTHERWISE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND FALLS APART AS IT TRIES
TO EXIT IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BOTH AN UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW, THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE TO
REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE AWAY
THE MOISTURE COMPONENT FROM THE GULF. SO EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SO
INTO TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE RAIN LIKELY
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING SCATTERED SHOWERS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS YAKUTAT WILL BE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT TUESDAY, AS IT EVEN EXPERIENCES
THE EFFECTS OF OFFSHORE MIDLEVEL FLOW.

THE WEAK CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT A TAD OVERNIGHT, SO PUSHED BACK THE FORMATION TO LATE,
AND KEPT THINGS PATCHY. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. COOLED WHITE PASS TEMPERATURES AND WARMED HAINES BORDER A
LITTLE, IN ADDITION WARMED LOWS FOR THE LYNN CANAL TOWNS BUT
OTHERWISE, NO REAL CHANGE. WITH SUBTLE COOLING, TEMPERATURES MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY FOR TUESDAY.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN, THE GRADIENT ACROSS LYNN CANAL
WILL LESSEN AND BUT ERRED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE IN REDUCING
WINDS AT LYNN CANAL. 700 MB WINDS STILL RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE
CHILKAT RANGE. TOMORROW WINDS WILL MOST CERTAINLY GO LIGHT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH A NEW LOW PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
LATE WEDNESDAY MAY INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLIES IN MARINE ZONE 310.

NUDGED WINDS TO ARW AND NMM AS PATTERN FAIRLY STABLE. NUDGED POPS
TO HRRR IN NEAR-TERM FOR ITS BETTER TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE BLENDED NAM, ECMWF, AND OTHER HIGH RES TO
COVER SPREAD OF PASSAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...A SMALL CLOSED LOW ALOFT CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OF THE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN TRAVEL
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN
TURN SOUTHEAST TO SLIDE PAST HAIDA GWAII EARLY THURSDAY AS AN OPEN
TROUGH. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE A SMALL
LOW. PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THINK THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NEAR YAKUTAT...MORE LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THEM SO HAVE KEPT THEM AT
CHANCE LEVELS OF MEASURABLE. WINDS WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS LOOK TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 TO
30 KT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST A WEAK RESIDUAL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKA
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST CANADA. AS IT DOES SO THE NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL INCREASE AND UP TO
IT LOOKS LIKE 30 KT FOR THURSDAY. THE HIGH IN THE YUKON TERRITORY
WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WINDS IN THE CANAL WILL LESSEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE BUILDING RIDGE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
WILL DRY SOUTHEAST OUT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FOR A DAY OR SO
BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TRYING TO BULLY ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT LATE SATURDAY TO ALLOW A SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLING OF THE
PANHANDLE REGION TEMPERATURE WISE. ENOUGH TO BRING LOWS BELOW
FREEZING HOWEVER DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40S. A GOOD PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH THE MAIN RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES HEADED TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND AS IT SPREADS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051>053.

&&

$$

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 255 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY CLOUD FREE WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD WESTERN CANADIAN TROF CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MOVE AND DEVELOP
SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE THIS TROF SLIGHTLY MORE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE IT ACROSS
UT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ALL ALONG MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT OF SYSTEM
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MORNING WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS DID SHOWED COLD 700 MB
TEMPS HAD MOVED OFFSHORE NORTHERN CA LAST NIGHT...AND HAS SPUN UP
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CLEARLY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
SANTA BARBARA THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE WAS THE HIGHLY DIFFERENT GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODEL 850 MB DEWPOINT INITIAL ANALYSIS 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO COMPARED WITH MORNING PRECIP WATER IMAGERY (PWI). THE GFS
MODEL APPEARED WAY OVERDONE OR INITIALIZED TOO MUCH MOISTURE IN THIS
AREA WHICH IS A CONCERN SINCE EVENTUALLY SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO AZ FROM THIS DIRECTION.

THE ABOVE ASIDE...MODEL RUNS HAVE REPEATEDLY FORECAST MOST MOISTURE
TO BE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MEANING IN THE WARM SECTOR.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO RESPONDED WITH CONSISTENT 50 PERCENT
MOS PRECIP PROBABILITIES (PP) FOR PHX AND VCNTY. SINCE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WE COULD SEE A CHANCE OF WARM RAIN OR COLLISION
COALESCENCE RAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
LA PAZ...MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS/MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL LINGER OVER MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BODILY INTO NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WED
AND THU WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A MAJOR WAVE PATTERN RE-ADJUSTMENT ACROSS THE
PACIFIC THIS WEEK WITH MOST PROMINENT LARGE WAVES RETROGRADING. THIS
MEANS MORE TROF RETROGRESSION OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH STORM
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE PACIFIC FOR INCREASED MOISTURE/PRECIP IN
ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE AS IT APPEARS
MODELS OVERESTIMATED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SPILL OVER THE
BAJA MOUNTAINS. RAP SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION THAN NAM AND GFS. THUS TAFS WERE AMENDED TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OF NOTE...SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOME LOCAL MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS IN THE FL050-070 RANGE. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE FL100-120 THROUGH THE EVENING. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND BE SLOW TO TURN
WESTERLY...THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WILL PREVAIL ABOVE THE SURFACE
THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. AFTER 06Z...LOWER LEVEL CIGS BECOME MORE
LIKELY AS A FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO GILA COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER
12Z...MORE WIDESPREAD FURTHER NORTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SURFACE WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATE SOME STRENGTHENING TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINING STRONGER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
CLOUDINESS...ANTICIPATE FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS OF FL050-070 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AS A FRONTAL
BAND APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY LA PAZ AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...CA AND AZ TUESDAY AND
TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DISTRICTS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER AREA RIDGETOPS AND MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND EASTERN AZ FOR TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...IN COMPARISON TO VALUES OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S....WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING BY OR
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND COMING WEEKEND.
DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO DRY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME ON AND OFF LOCAL BREEZINESS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 950 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A COOLING TREND. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD WESTERN CANADIAN TROF CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MOVE AND DEVELOP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND WAS CENTERED IN FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA AT 500 MB
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THIS TROF
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL CA TODAY...THEN MOVE IT ACROSS UT AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN AZ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ALL ALONG MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE AMOUNT OF SYSTEM
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SINCE ITS MAINLY A CONTINENTAL OR OVERLAND MOVING TROF.
MORNING WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME COLD 700 MB
TEMPERATURES HAD MOVED OFFSHORE NORTHERN CA OVERNIGHT...AND A
SPIN-UP OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
OFFSHORE SAN FRANCISCO FROM ROUGH WIND DRIVEN SEAS.

ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE WAS THE HIGHLY DIFFERENT GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODEL 6-12 HR 850 MB DEWPOINT FORECASTS 400 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO COMPARED WITH MORNING PRECIP WATER IMAGERY (PWI). THE
GFS MODEL APPEARED WAY OVERDONE OR FORECASTS TOO MUCH MOISTURE IN
THIS AREA....SINCE EVENTUALLY SOME OF THE MOISTURE FOR MONDAY WILL
ORIGINATE FROM THIS DIRECTION.

THE ABOVE ASIDE...MODELS ALL ALONG HAVE FORECAST ALL THE MOISTURE TO
BE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FOR MONDAY...MEANING IN THE WARM
SECTOR BELOW 800 MB. RECENT MOS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO RESPONDED TO THE
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH CONSISTENT 50 PERCENT
PRECIP PROBABILITIES (PP) ON MON FOR PHX AND VCNTY...AND PP WAS
RAISED ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...I GUESS WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
WARM RAIN OR COLLISION COALESCENCE RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS MON AND MON NIGHT.

THEREFORE AGREE WITH THE INCREASE IN PP ON THE DESERTS FOR MON.
FORECASTS THEREFORE LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW STILL APPLIES.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...538 AM MST...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST...OVER MUCH OF NRN
CA AND NEVADA. THE DEVELOPING LOW WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LATEST PLOTS DEPICTED 40-80M H5 HEIGHT FALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV AND NRN CA...INDICATIVE OF THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
STREAM INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SEEN IN IR IMAGERY...WITH
SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP INTO SERN AZ. LATEST RADAR
SHOWED WEAK ECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN AZ...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
VIRGA. AT THE SAME TIME...BLENDED TOTAL PWAT IMAGERY SHOWED VALUES
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH LURKING SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER...MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL/SRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CA....EXTENDING WESTWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED BY
THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FOR TODAY...WHILE
THE LOW SPINS UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE A
BIT LIMITED SO WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN TERMS OF SHOWERS OVER OUR
LOWER DESERTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF JOSHUA TREE NP LATER TODAY BUT MAINLY WE
WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR IT TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN AZ...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AND AS SUCH CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE DESERTS HAVE
BEEN RISING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST MRA GUIDANCE KEEPS
POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT BALLPARK FOR THE CENTRAL DESERTS ON
MONDAY...AND EARLIER MEX/MRA RUNS WERE AS HIGH AS 70 PERCENT. BEST
WINDOW FOR RAINFALL WITH HIS EVENT WILL BE TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN
DESERTS...AND MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WE HAVE
RAISED POPS AGAIN...INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS FAR NRN MARICOPA
COUNTY...AND INTO THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MUCH SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. LATEST SREF/GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS INCREASING
POP TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED
MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE A BIT WITH HIGHS LOWERING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL DESERTS INCLUDING THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA. A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM PHOENIX EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STARTS TO EJECT AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA...AND A STRONG 130KT UPPER JET ON THE
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO QUICKLY EJECT THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
BUT WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING OVER THE DESERTS WEST OF
PHOENIX AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
STAY ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AS THEY MIGRATE THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND
KEEP BROAD TROFFING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH THE NW
FLOW...BUT THEY SHOULD BE DRY SYSTEMS AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THESE SYSTEMS BUT THEY SHOULD NOT REALLY AFFECT OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE 3 DAY PERIOD. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES AND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE. STILL...THE
LATEST 00Z RUN FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER DEEP
TROF WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TO THE DESERTS. AS SUCH...WE RAISED POPS MOSTLY INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND
STARTED A DECREASING TEMP TREND. LATEST MRA POPS FOR PHOENIX CALLED
FOR A NEARLY 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS
VERY EXTREME AND AS SUCH WILL NOT TREND POPS NEARLY THAT HIGH.
BUT...IT IS AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT...AS MRA NUMBERS ARE RARELY
THAT HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE AS IT APPEARS
MODELS OVERESTIMATED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SPILL OVER THE
BAJA MOUNTAINS. RAP SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION THAN NAM AND GFS. THUS TAFS WERE AMENDED TO REFLECT
TRENDS. OF NOTE...SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOME LOCAL MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CIGS IN THE FL050-070 RANGE. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE FL100-120 THROUGH THE EVENING. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND BE SLOW TO TURN
WESTERLY...THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WILL PREVAIL ABOVE THE SURFACE
THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER. AFTER 06Z...LOWER LEVEL CIGS BECOME MORE
LIKELY AS A FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO GILA COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER
12Z...MORE WIDESPREAD FURTHER NORTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SURFACE WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT ANTICIPATE SOME STRENGTHENING TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINING STRONGER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
CLOUDINESS...ANTICIPATE FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS OF FL050-070 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AS A FRONTAL
BAND APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY LA PAZ AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...CA AND AZ TUESDAY AND
TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DISTRICTS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OVER AREA RIDGETOPS AND MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND EASTERN AZ FOR TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...IN COMPARISON TO VALUES OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S....WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING BY OR
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND COMING WEEKEND.
DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO DRY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME ON AND OFF LOCAL BREEZINESS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 1002 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONO COUNTY WITH
AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING A LIGHT SNOW THROUGH LEE VINING AND MAMMOTH
WITH A THIN COATING OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF HWY 395 MAINLY
THROUGH CONWAY SUMMIT. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST COMING OFF THE
CARSON SINK ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR FALLON THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY CURRENTLY DROPPING BELOW 2 MILES.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MONO-MINERAL COUNTY
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TAHOE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK SETTLES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LAKE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME VERY LOCALIZED AREAS
WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW FROM NARROW LAKE ENHANCEMENT BANDS.

MAIN CONCENTRATION OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONO COUNTY
WHERE 1-3" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. TRAVEL
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY WET ROAD SURFACES AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SNOWFALL IS HAVING A HARD TIME STICKING WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FUENTES


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY INTO MONDAY IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS WINDS
BECOME BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...

WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY IN UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS AROUND LAKE TAHOE. EXPECT VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AROUND LAKE TAHOE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH BY MID
MORNING.

SOME MODERATE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
CONCERNING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST. GENERALLY
INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOCATIONS
AROUND AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 INCLUDING THE RENO METRO AREA.
ALSO INCREASED GUSTS MARGINALLY TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE RENO METRO
AREA AND TO AROUND 40 MPH FOR CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES.

CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DUST LOFTED SATURDAY, HAVE ADDED AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS INCLUDES
LOCATIONS FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY THROUGH THE SUSANVILLE AND
RENO METRO AREAS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH CHURCHILL,
PERSHING, AND MINERAL COUNTIES. FALLON AND OTHER LOCATIONS
DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS TO LESS THAN 1 MILE BRIEFLY. RENO AND SPANISH SPRINGS
WILL LIKELY SEE BLOWING DUST OUT OF THE SMOKE CREEK DESERT. THERE
COULD BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 3 MILES AND LOCALLY TO 1
MILE AT TIMES. WINDS FALL OFF BY MONDAY MORNING AND DUST SHOULD
SETTLE QUICKLY.

OTHERWISE, NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. STILL EXPECT THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE SIERRA
THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LYON AND MINERAL
COUNTIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL, LOCATIONS IN MONO
COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7000
FEET. LOCAL TOTALS IN UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LEE VINING AND
NEARBY HIGHWAY 395 COULD SEE SOME MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF OF MONO LAKE. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW A PLUME OF
SNOW DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF LEE VINING ALONG HIGHWAY 395 AND THE
LONG VALLEY CRATER RIM. RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE VICINITY OF MONO
LAKE.

PRECIPITATION EXITS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MONO COUNTY, BUT WILL TAPER QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVE IN TUESDAY. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W,
KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL MAINLY
SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE STILL FLIP-FLOPPING IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAN YESTERDAY.
LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SIERRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT A
BIG STORM BY ANY MEANS. PREVIOUS MODELS HAD SHOWN THESE WAVES AS DRY
INSIDE SLIDERS, BUT THESE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE EDGING THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST TO AROUND 145W, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BE ABLE TO PICK UP SOME MOISTURE OFF THE
PACIFIC BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE SIERRA.

THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK PRETTY COLD, WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR NEAR
VALLEY FLOORS IN WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND IS MEDIUM, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW AS THIS RELIES HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. HOON

AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KTRK, KTVL, KRNO, KCXP FOR
TODAY WITH KMMH THE ONLY TERMINAL TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. COULD SEE -SHSN FOR KMMH AS EARLY AS 15Z SUN WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM 21Z SUN TO 12Z MON MORNING. IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE 1-4
INCHES AT KMMH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

BREEZY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 KTS. GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE BLOWING DUST WITH LIMITS TO
VISIBILITY AT TIMES AROUND KRNO, KCXP, KNFL AND KLOL. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE SIERRA EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 258 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY INTO MONDAY IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS WINDS
BECOME BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAINLY IN UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS AROUND LAKE TAHOE. EXPECT VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AROUND LAKE TAHOE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH BY MID
MORNING.

SOME MODERATE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
CONCERNING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST. GENERALLY
INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOCATIONS
AROUND AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 INCLUDING THE RENO METRO AREA.
ALSO INCREASED GUSTS MARGINALLY TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE RENO METRO
AREA AND TO AROUND 40 MPH FOR CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES.

CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DUST LOFTED SATURDAY, HAVE ADDED AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION. THIS INCLUDES
LOCATIONS FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY THROUGH THE SUSANVILLE AND
RENO METRO AREAS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH CHURCHILL,
PERSHING, AND MINERAL COUNTIES. FALLON AND OTHER LOCATIONS
DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS TO LESS THAN 1 MILE BRIEFLY. RENO AND SPANISH SPRINGS
WILL LIKELY SEE BLOWING DUST OUT OF THE SMOKE CREEK DESERT. THERE
COULD BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 3 MILES AND LOCALLY TO 1
MILE AT TIMES. WINDS FALL OFF BY MONDAY MORNING AND DUST SHOULD
SETTLE QUICKLY.

OTHERWISE, NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. STILL EXPECT THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE SIERRA
THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LYON AND MINERAL
COUNTIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL, LOCATIONS IN MONO
COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7000
FEET. LOCAL TOTALS IN UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LEE VINING AND
NEARBY HIGHWAY 395 COULD SEE SOME MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF OF MONO LAKE. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW A PLUME OF
SNOW DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF LEE VINING ALONG HIGHWAY 395 AND THE
LONG VALLEY CRATER RIM. RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE VICINITY OF MONO
LAKE.

PRECIPITATION EXITS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MONO COUNTY, BUT WILL TAPER QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVE IN TUESDAY. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W,
KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL MAINLY
SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE STILL FLIP-FLOPPING IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAN YESTERDAY.
LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SIERRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT A
BIG STORM BY ANY MEANS. PREVIOUS MODELS HAD SHOWN THESE WAVES AS DRY
INSIDE SLIDERS, BUT THESE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE EDGING THE RIDGE
FURTHER WEST TO AROUND 145W, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BE ABLE TO PICK UP SOME MOISTURE OFF THE
PACIFIC BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE SIERRA.

THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK PRETTY COLD, WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR NEAR
VALLEY FLOORS IN WESTERN NEVADA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND IS MEDIUM, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW AS THIS RELIES HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KTRK, KTVL, KRNO, KCXP FOR
TODAY WITH KMMH THE ONLY TERMINAL TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. COULD SEE -SHSN FOR KMMH AS EARLY AS 15Z SUN WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM 21Z SUN TO 12Z MON MORNING. IT`S POSSIBLE TO SEE 1-4
INCHES AT KMMH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

BREEZY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 KTS. GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE BLOWING DUST WITH LIMITS TO
VISIBILITY AT TIMES AROUND KRNO, KCXP, KNFL AND KLOL. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE SIERRA EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 813 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER LOWS A TAD AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WARM...ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRRAIN...AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE WSW FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

AN UPR LOW OVR CA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...
MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN WEAKENING AND
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU NM ON TUE.

SNOW HAS CONTINUED FALLING OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD
AND IT FAIRLY SPOTTY AND WL CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY AT 3 PM.

OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS THE SNOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE
SPOTTY...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SRN AREAS NR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  WL
ALLOW THAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM.

THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW PCPN CHANCE DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS OVR MOST OF THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS.  THE NAM KEEPS
WIDESPREAD SNOW OVR THE ERN SAN JUANS EARLY IN THE EVENING. WEB CAMS
SHOULD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL CURRENTLY AT LXV AND MONARCH
PASS...SO WL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AT 3
PM...ALONG WITH CANCELING WARNINGS FOR ZONES 64 AND 65...BUT WL
LEAVE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.  WL LEAVE
THE WARNING FOR THE ERN SAN JUANS (ZONE 68) IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z.
ERN SAN JUANS COULD GET ANOTHER FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF.

BY 09Z THE NAM SHOWS DRY WX OVR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MIDMORNING TUE. THE NAM THEN SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SW MTNS AS THE UPR LOW
MOVES INTO NM. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE SW
MTNS AND THE SANGRES THRU THE NIGHT AND THRU TUE.  THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT DOES NOT SPREAD THE PCPN ON TUE QUITE AS FAR
NORTH.  HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS OVR THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH HIGHER POPS OVR THE
SW MTNS DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP AGAIN AS LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON TUE...BUT THE SNOW COVER IN MANY LOCATIONS WL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND SO WL STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

...ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT LINGERING
SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW SOME AREAS SEE. SNOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...DOWN
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WHILE
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE NAM
WHICH KEEPS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT UPSLOPE EFFECTS AND SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH 30S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 20S ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 20S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SPREAD IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. MODELS KEEP LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
30S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  KALS
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING HOURS UNLESS SOME SHOWERS
ARE IN THE VCNTY WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.  THEN
LATE TONIGHT KALS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS INTO MIDMORNING TUE...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  KCOS MAY STILL HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IN THE VCNTY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS...THEN BY LATE EVENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
VFR AS SFC WINDS BECOME NW TO N.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 509 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE WSW FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

AN UPR LOW OVR CA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...
MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN WEAKENING AND
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU NM ON TUE.

SNOW HAS CONTINUED FALLING OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD
AND IT FAIRLY SPOTTY AND WL CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY AT 3 PM.

OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS THE SNOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE
SPOTTY...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SRN AREAS NR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  WL
ALLOW THAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM.

THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW PCPN CHANCE DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS OVR MOST OF THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS.  THE NAM KEEPS
WIDESPREAD SNOW OVR THE ERN SAN JUANS EARLY IN THE EVENING. WEB CAMS
SHOULD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL CURRENTLY AT LXV AND MONARCH
PASS...SO WL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AT 3
PM...ALONG WITH CANCELING WARNINGS FOR ZONES 64 AND 65...BUT WL
LEAVE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.  WL LEAVE
THE WARNING FOR THE ERN SAN JUANS (ZONE 68) IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z.
ERN SAN JUANS COULD GET ANOTHER FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF.

BY 09Z THE NAM SHOWS DRY WX OVR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MIDMORNING TUE. THE NAM THEN SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SW MTNS AS THE UPR LOW
MOVES INTO NM. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE SW
MTNS AND THE SANGRES THRU THE NIGHT AND THRU TUE.  THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT DOES NOT SPREAD THE PCPN ON TUE QUITE AS FAR
NORTH.  HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS OVR THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH HIGHER POPS OVR THE
SW MTNS DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP AGAIN AS LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON TUE...BUT THE SNOW COVER IN MANY LOCATIONS WL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND SO WL STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

...ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT LINGERING
SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW SOME AREAS SEE. SNOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...DOWN
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WHILE
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE NAM
WHICH KEEPS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT UPSLOPE EFFECTS AND SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH 30S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 20S ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 20S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SPREAD IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. MODELS KEEP LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
30S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  KALS
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING HOURS UNLESS SOME SHOWERS
ARE IN THE VCNTY WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.  THEN
LATE TONIGHT KALS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS INTO MIDMORNING TUE...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  KCOS MAY STILL HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IN THE VCNTY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS...THEN BY LATE EVENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
VFR AS SFC WINDS BECOME NW TO N.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 327 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUES...
...SNOW WINDING DOWN TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...

IN GENERAL...FORECAST IS WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL ACROSS THE CWA.
FORECAST AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WERE TOO
HIGH...AND TOO LOW FOR THE MTS AND SRN ZONES...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS
ARE NOT TOO SURPRISING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OFF TO THE WEST
OVER CA...AND MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SW AND
W...WILL SEE SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ERN PLAINS E OF I-
25 TONIGHT...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS THROUGH TONIGHT IN THAT AREA. WILL
LEAVE A SNOW ADVISORY GOING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS OF AN INCH
OR TWO POSSIBLE...AND CONTINUED ICY ROAD CONDITIONS. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIER SNOW GRADUALLY BEING TIED TO THE ERN MTS AND
HIGHER TRRN...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. THERE COULD BE SOME BANDED
PRECIP SPILLING OVER TO PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY W
OF I-25...THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE THE WARNING INTACT
FOR THE I-25 ZONES. IN FACT...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SN PICKING
UP FOR A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EL PASO COUNTY BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE AND
DOWNGRADE THE WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE.

OVER THE MTS...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND SENSOR IS OUT
AT KCPW...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING THERE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH PERIODS OF
MONDAY BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 FEET OVER THE SAN JUANS BY TUESDAY...SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS NEAR 4 FEET BY THE TIME THIS
ENDS...AND WITH HIGH WINDS SOME SERIOUS DRIFTING AS
WELL...INCREASING AN UNSTABLE SNOW LOAD ON THE SLOPES AND RESULTING
IN EXTREME AVALANCHE THREAT OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

INTERESTINGLY...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING H7 TEMPS OF MINUS 21
DEGREES OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN WHAT THE
MODELS WERE SHOWING JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE FROM A WEEK AGO! THE MUCH COLDER AIR HAS CUT BACK A
BIT ON DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND LIMITED SNOW AMOUNTS TO SOME
EXTENT FOR OUR ERN ZONES. AS A RESULT OF THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT...EXPECT SOME LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO TONIGHT EVEN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND HAVE REDUCED HIGHS A BIT FOR TOMORROW WITH TEMPS
PROBABLY STAYING IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW FOR THE PLAINS...AS WRLY FLOW
INCREASES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LACK OF QPF THERE TOMORROW...BUT
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SHALLOW UPSLOPE...AM
RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY...SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. OVER THE MTS...HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES AT TIMES
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE ERN SAN JUANS. SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL
BE BETWEEN THE TWO REGIMES AND COULD SEE SOME SHSN...BUT NOTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY EXPECTED. WELCOME BACK TO WINTER! ROSE


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM SRN
NV...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW CENTER OVR NERN AZ BY 12Z TUE AND
THE NAM BEING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. EITHER WAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVR
THE SWRN CO MTNS.  HOWEVER WITH THE GFS BEING FARTHER EAST THAN THE
NAM...PCPN IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE
ERN MTNS...WHILE THE NAM HAS DRY CONDITIONS EVERY BUT THE SW MTNS.
ON TUE THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD
TRACK...MOVING ACRS NRN NM...BRINGING MAINLY SOME PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON
TUE WL BE A LITTLE WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SNOW COVER.

TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE AREA AS
THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN TX.  A NEW UPR TROF DROPS INTO THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE WED MORNING...PUSHING MORE COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA.  IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACRS THE AREA AS WELL...WITH PROBABLY
THE HARDEST HIT AREAS BEING THE EASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
PLAINS AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...KEEPING PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS THRU
THU NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRI AS ANOTHER UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW.  THIS WL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OVR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW OVR ERN AREAS WL HELP TO
BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO THE THE WET MTNS...SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE
ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.

UNSETTLE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPR TROF AFFECTS THE STATE...KEEPING THE WEATHER COOL AND BRINGING
PCPN CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

SN WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVE FOR KPUB AND
KCOS...AS ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES TIED TO THE HIGHER TRRN ALONG
THE RAMPARTS...WETS...AND SANGRES. WILL STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MDT SN MOVE OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVE...SO THERE
WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT OF IFR CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP KCOS IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON
MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FZFG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS. AT KALS...MVFR TO IFR ALSO POSSIBLE
IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN STORMS AS ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
IMPACT OUR AREA LATE WED INTO THU. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ089-093>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>063-
072>088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ069>071.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064>067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28/ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 926 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AND REPLACE THEM WITH
SPS(S). NEAR NEAR TERM WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SERN
TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA. NOT A GREAT PUSH, BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS MUCH AS ONE CAN WITHOUT HURTING ONESELF, TODAY IS THE DAY TO
CLEAR AS MUCH OF THE ICE, SLUSH OFF OF SIDEWALKS, DRIVEWAYS,
STREETS AS WELL AS OPENING CATCH BASINS BECAUSE ANY LEFTOVER WATER
OR SLUSH WILL FREEZE SOLID TONIGHT.

NO OTHER BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE, MID SHIFT IDEAS ABOUT THE
REST OF TODAY MAINTAINED.

BY MID TO LATE MORNING, IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, AS THE HRRR SHOWS ANY REMAINING LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
EAST AND OFFSHORE, WITH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON,
AND WITH THIS IN MIND, AS WELL AS CONSIDERING THE REMAINING
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION, WE UNDERCUT MET/MAV GUIDANCE BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGARD TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S FOR THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE DELMARVA, WITH COLDER UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S
REMAINING INTO THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, A NEW PUSH OF COLDER, DRIER AIR WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE REGION ON NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, SAVE PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR MINIMUM TEMPS, AND WE EXPECT SOME SINGLE
DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO MAINLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG 1047 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. STEADY
PRESSURE RISES FROM THIS PATTERN BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NW WINDS
THAT USHERS IN THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE AND LOW TO
MID 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AS TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY OWING TO THE STRONG CAA.
WIND CHILLS AOB ZERO ARE EXPECTED FOR NE PA AND NW NJ AND SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE POCONOS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 BELOW
ZERO.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH THE
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS, IF NOT COLDER IN SPOTS WITH A
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER. A SIMILAR SETUP OCCURRED YESTERDAY- RECORD LOW
TEMPS WERE SET AND GUIDANCE BIASED WAY TOO WARM. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ABOUT 6 HOURS
LATER INTO THE NIGHT COMPARED TO THIS PAST FRIDAY MORNING SO TEMPS
MAY NOT FREE FALL QUITE AS MUCH. WE WILL ALSO LOSE THAT WIND CHILL
FACTOR OVERNIGHT, SO ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE POCONOS WOULD
NOT BE NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HELP MODERATE THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS A BIT DURING THE
MIDWEEK. TEMPS STILL 15-20F BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 5-10F BELOW
ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR
TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SO
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AGAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF SUNDAY...WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY, THE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS, MAINLY IN THE IFR RANGE, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WHEN EXACTLY THE LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BREAK WITH A RETURN TO VFR IS A TRICKY FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS
OCCURRENCE. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN
AROUND 16Z TO 18Z, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE
NOTICEABLE PUSH OF COLD, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY, REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...BREEZY NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.
GENERALLY VFR ALTHOUGH CAA STRATOCU MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO ABE/RDG,
WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE ON THIS
HAPPENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALIZED/
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE TO
SEE ANY SNOW IS ABE.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
**SINCE MUCH OF DELAWARE BAY IS COVERED BY ICE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADD THE PHRASING "ON ICE FREE WATERS" FOR THE FIRST FOUR
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST**

WHILE LIGHTER WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY, SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET OR SO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AWAY FROM THE NEAR
SHORE. WE THEREFORE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A TIME. LATER TONIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 25 KNOTS. SEAS MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME IN RESPONSE. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE DELAWARE BAY, BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS THEN
MEETING SCA CRITERIA INTO MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SCA ISSUED FOR BOTH THE DE BAY AND COASTAL
ZONES WITH NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. WINDS RELAX MONDAY NIGHT BUT
SCA LEVEL WINDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA
LEVELS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY
BE JUST BELOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BETTER CHANCE AT SCA CONDITIONS
IN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE
CLIMATE...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 509 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LEFTOVER ONGOING PRECIP EARLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS CROSSING OUR REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING HEADLINE PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING, AS SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND INTO NORTHERN NJ. WHILE
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH NORTHERN NJ, THE POCONOS, AND
INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY, PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY FALLING AS
FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN PA,
INCLUDING THE WESTERN PHL METRO SUBURBS, WHERE A WARM LAYER EXISTS
ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF SOME ICING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NJ, WHERE PRECIPITATION
IS FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN, BUT THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN.

WE THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH
14Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO FREEZING AND LIGHT PRECIP
IS FALLING. THE STILL FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME LIGHT
ICING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING THROUGH 14Z ACROSS NORTHERN DELAWARE, THE PHL METRO AREA,
AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
STILL FROZEN GROUND.

BY MID TO LATE MORNING, IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, AS THE HRRR SHOWS ANY REMAINING LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
EAST AND OFFSHORE, WITH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
WITH THIS IN MIND, AS WELL AS CONSIDERING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION, WE UNDERCUT MET/MAV GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGARD TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S FOR THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE DELMARVA, WITH COLDER UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S
REMAINING INTO THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, A NEW PUSH OF COLDER, DRIER AIR WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE REGION ON NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, SAVE PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR MINIMUM TEMPS, AND WE EXPECT SOME SINGLE
DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO MAINLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG 1047 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. STEADY
PRESSURE RISES FROM THIS PATTERN BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NW WINDS
THAT USHERS IN THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE AND LOW TO
MID 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AS TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY OWING TO THE STRONG CAA.
WIND CHILLS AOB ZERO ARE EXPECTED FOR NE PA AND NW NJ AND SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE POCONOS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 BELOW
ZERO.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH THE
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS, IF NOT COLDER IN SPOTS WITH A
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER. A SIMILAR SETUP OCCURRED YESTERDAY- RECORD LOW
TEMPS WERE SET AND GUIDANCE BIASED WAY TOO WARM. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ABOUT 6 HOURS
LATER INTO THE NIGHT COMPARED TO THIS PAST FRIDAY MORNING SO TEMPS
MAY NOT FREE FALL QUITE AS MUCH. WE WILL ALSO LOSE THAT WIND CHILL
FACTOR OVERNIGHT, SO ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE POCONOS WOULD
NOT BE NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HELP MODERATE THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS A BIT DURING THE
MIDWEEK. TEMPS STILL 15-20F BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 5-10F BELOW
ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR
TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SO
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AGAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALL SITES
FROM THE COAST TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY REGION HAVE TRANSITIONED
OVER TO RAIN, EXCEPT KABE AND KRDG WHERE LIGHT SNOW OR SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND
DAYBREAK. IN FACT, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 1000Z AND 1300Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, OR PERHAPS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.

REST OF SUNDAY...WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY, THE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS, MAINLY IN THE IFR RANGE, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WHEN EXACTLY THE LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BREAK WITH A RETURN TO VFR IS A TRICKY FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS
OCCURRENCE. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN
AROUND 16Z TO 18Z, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE
NOTICEABLE PUSH OF COLD, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY, REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...BREEZY NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.
GENERALLY VFR ALTHOUGH CAA STRATOCU MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO ABE/RDG,
WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE ON THIS
HAPPENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALIZED/
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE TO
SEE ANY SNOW IS ABE.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
**SINCE MUCH OF DELAWARE BAY IS COVERED BY ICE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADD THE PHRASING "ON ICE FREE WATERS" FOR THE FIRST FOUR
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST**

WHILE LIGHTER WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY, SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET OR SO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AWAY FROM THE NEAR
SHORE. WE THEREFORE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A TIME. LATER TONIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 25 KNOTS. SEAS MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME IN RESPONSE. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE DELAWARE BAY, BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS THEN
MEETING SCA CRITERIA INTO MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SCA ISSUED FOR BOTH THE DE BAY AND COASTAL
ZONES WITH NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. WINDS RELAX MONDAY NIGHT BUT
SCA LEVEL WINDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SCA
LEVELS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY
BE JUST BELOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BETTER CHANCE AT SCA CONDITIONS
IN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ060>062-101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-104-106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ007>010-015.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ021-
     022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ012>014-016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ008.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 503 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TODAY, DRAGGING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PULLING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LEFTOVER ONGOING PRECIP EARLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS CROSSING OUR REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING HEADLINE PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING, AS SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND INTO NORTHERN NJ. WHILE
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH NORTHERN NJ, THE POCONOS, AND
INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY, PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY FALLING AS
FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN PA,
INCLUDING THE WESTERN PHL METRO SUBURBS, WHERE A WARM LAYER EXISTS
ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF SOME ICING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NJ, WHERE PRECIPITATION
IS FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN, BUT THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN.

WE THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH
14Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO FREEZING AND LIGHT PRECIP
IS FALLING. THE STILL FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME LIGHT
ICING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING THROUGH 14Z ACROSS NORTHERN DELAWARE, THE PHL METRO AREA,
AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
STILL FROZEN GROUND.

BY MID TO LATE MORNING, IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, AS THE HRRR SHOWS ANY REMAINING LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
EAST AND OFFSHORE, WITH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
WITH THIS IN MIND, AS WELL AS CONSIDERING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION, WE UNDERCUT MET/MAV GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGARD TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S FOR THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE DELMARVA, WITH COLDER UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S
REMAINING INTO THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, A NEW PUSH OF COLDER, DRIER AIR WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE REGION ON NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, SAVE PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR MINIMUM TEMPS, AND WE EXPECT SOME SINGLE
DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO MAINLY TEENS AND
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND BREEZY DAY. WITH LOW THICKNESSES
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF,
AND SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO
BELOW ZERO FOR THE COLDEST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, TO MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA, THERE WILL BE SOME WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO BELOW ZERO
FOR THE COLDEST.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL SWITCH
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, HELP MODERATING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE AIR REMAINS DRY STILL, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE OR ASSOCIATED LIFT FORECAST EITHER WAY, SO WE WILL ONLY
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SO
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AGAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALL SITES
FROM THE COAST TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY REGION HAVE TRANSITIONED
OVER TO RAIN, EXCEPT KABE AND KRDG WHERE LIGHT SNOW OR SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND
DAYBREAK. IN FACT, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 1000Z AND 1300Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, OR PERHAPS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.

REST OF SUNDAY...WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY, THE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS, MAINLY IN THE IFR RANGE, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WHEN EXACTLY THE LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BREAK WITH A RETURN TO VFR IS A TRICKY FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS
OCCURRENCE. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN
AROUND 16Z TO 18Z, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE
NOTICEABLE PUSH OF COLD, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY, REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS, OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
**SINCE MUCH OF DELAWARE BAY IS COVERED BY ICE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADD THE PHRASING "ON ICE FREE WATERS" FOR THE FIRST FOUR
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST**

WHILE LIGHTER WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY, SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET OR SO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AWAY FROM THE NEAR
SHORE. WE THEREFORE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A TIME. LATER TONIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 25 KNOTS. SEAS MAY ALSO
INCREASE SOME IN RESPONSE. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE DELAWARE BAY, BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS THEN
MEETING SCA CRITERIA INTO MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD MIN TEMPS WERE SET ON FEB 21, 2015 AT: ACY, ILG,
ABE, TTN, GED AND MPO THIS MORNING. HERE ARE THE PARTICULARS...

POR  | SITE | PREV RECORD MINT (YEAR)| NEW RECORD MINT (YEAR)
1874 | KACY |  3 (1968)          |  -6 (2015)
1894 | KILG|  6 (1968,1934)  |   3 (2015)
1922 | KABE|  0 (1936)       |  -3 (2015)
1865 | KTTN |  6 (1893)       |   3 (2015)
1948 | KGED |  8 (1959)       |  -4 (2015)
1901 | KMPO | -8 (1993)       |  -10(2015)

NOTE: POR= PERIOD OF RECORD (YEAR THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN)

ALSO, THE -6F ON FEB 21, 2015 IS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED
AT ATLANTIC CITY SINCE FEBRUARY 5, 1996 AND THE LATEST OCCURRENCE
OF A SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE SEASON ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS
LATEST SUB-ZERO DAY IN WINTER/SPRING WAS JUST SET YESTERDAY, AND
BEFORE THAT, IT WAS FEBRUARY 18TH WHEN THE LOW WAS -7F ON THAT
DATE IN 1979.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ060>062-101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-104-106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ007>010-015.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ021-
     022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ012>014-016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ008.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLINE/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 420 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TODAY, DRAGGING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PULLING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LEFTOVER ONGOING PRECIP EARLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS CROSSING OUR REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING HEADLINE PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING, AS SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND INTO NORTHERN NJ. WHILE
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH NORTHERN NJ, THE POCONOS, AND
INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY, PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY FALLING AS
FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN PA,
INCLUDING THE WESTERN PHL METRO SUBURBS, WHERE A WARM LAYER EXISTS
ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF SOME ICING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NJ, WHERE PRECIPITATION
IS FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN, BUT THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN.

WE THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH
14Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO FREEZING AND LIGHT PRECIP
IS FALLING. THE STILL FROZEN GROUND WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME LIGHT
ICING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING THROUGH 14Z ACROSS NORTHERN DELAWARE, THE PHL METRO AREA,
AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
STILL FROZEN GROUND.

BY MID TO LATE MORNING, IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, AS THE HRRR SHOWS ANY REMAINING LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
EAST AND OFFSHORE, WITH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
WITH THIS IN MIND, AS WELL AS CONSIDERING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION, WE UNDERCUT MET/MAV GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGARD TO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S FOR THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE DELMARVA, WITH COLDER UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S
REMAINING INTO THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT AND ALL OF ITS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
PULLED WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TO AFFECT THE POCONOS. SO
OVERALL, WE EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECTED, TEMPERATURE
SHOULD NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND BREEZY DAY. WITH LOW THICKNESSES
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF,
AND SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO
BELOW ZERO FOR THE COLDEST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, TO MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA, THERE WILL BE SOME WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO BELOW ZERO
FOR THE COLDEST.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL SWITCH
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, HELP MODERATING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE AIR REMAINS DRY STILL, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE OR ASSOCIATED LIFT FORECAST EITHER WAY, SO WE WILL ONLY
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SO
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AGAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALL SITES
FROM THE COAST TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY REGION HAVE TRANSITIONED
OVER TO RAIN, EXCEPT KABE AND KRDG WHERE LIGHT SNOW OR SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND
DAYBREAK. IN FACT, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 1000Z AND 1300Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, OR PERHAPS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.

REST OF SUNDAY...WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY, THE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS, MAINLY IN THE IFR RANGE, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WHEN EXACTLY THE LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BREAK WITH A RETURN TO VFR IS A TRICKY FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS
OCCURRENCE. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN
AROUND 16Z TO 18Z, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE
NOTICEABLE PUSH OF COLD, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY, REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS, OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
**SINCE MUCH OF DELAWARE BAY IS COVERED BY ICE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADD THE PHRASING "ON ICE FREE WATERS" FOR THE FIRST FOUR
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST**

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
MAINLY FOR SEAS WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SUNDAY. WE KEPT WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN EXTENDED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WINDS MAY GET
CLOSE ON THE DELAWARE BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD MIN TEMPS WERE SET ON FEB 21, 2015 AT: ACY, ILG,
ABE, TTN, GED AND MPO THIS MORNING. HERE ARE THE PARTICULARS...

POR  | SITE | PREV RECORD MINT (YEAR)| NEW RECORD MINT (YEAR)
1874 | KACY |  3 (1968)          |  -6 (2015)
1894 | KILG|  6 (1968,1934)  |   3 (2015)
1922 | KABE|  0 (1936)       |  -3 (2015)
1865 | KTTN |  6 (1893)       |   3 (2015)
1948 | KGED |  8 (1959)       |  -4 (2015)
1901 | KMPO | -8 (1993)       |  -10(2015)

NOTE: POR= PERIOD OF RECORD (YEAR THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN)

ALSO, THE -6F ON FEB 21, 2015 IS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED
AT ATLANTIC CITY SINCE FEBRUARY 5, 1996 AND THE LATEST OCCURRENCE
OF A SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE SEASON ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS
LATEST SUB-ZERO DAY IN WINTER/SPRING WAS JUST SET YESTERDAY, AND
BEFORE THAT, IT WAS FEBRUARY 18TH WHEN THE LOW WAS -7F ON THAT
DATE IN 1979.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ060>062-101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-104-106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ007>010-015.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ021-
     022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ012>014-016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ008.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 908 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

...DENSE FOG EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING...

.UPDATE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS EVENING WHICH IS HELPING MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT ANY
EXCESS SEA FOG SPILL OVER INTO THE COASTAL ZONES AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER... BEACHES FROM PINELLAS SOUTHWARD REMAIN FOGGY THIS
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE SEA FOG
AND IF WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SEA FOG PUSH FURTHER INLAND. LOCAL
HI RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A PUSH FROM THE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SO FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME SHIFTING
OFF SHORE. IN FACT...NAMDNG5 AND HRRR ARE SHOWING WINDS BECOMING
CALM OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF SEA FOG DOES NOT SPILL OVER...WE COULD SEE
SOME RADIATION FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE. BECAUSE OF THE FOG
POTENTIAL... HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
ZONES BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE
TO ADJUST THE EXTENT IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK
SHOWING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND LOW VIS EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. SEA FOG HAS PUSHED IN THE VICINITY
OF SITES NEAR THE COAST BUT MAIN ISSUE IS CURRENTLY A LOW BKN/OVC
DECK AT APPROX 300-500 FT. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH PERIODS OF VFR. CURRENTLY EXPECTING FOG AND LOW VIS TO AFFECT
ALL SITES AROUND 9/10Z AND LINGER THROUGH SUN RISE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUN RISE BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG THIS EVENING CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS... THEN SLOWLY CLEARS AS A COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHWARD. LIGHT
WEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH MODEST SPEEDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WITH RATHER TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF MID-WEEK AND TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WITH A TRAILING COLD...DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE BEGINNING MID-WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH SUN RISE. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  69  59  73 /  10  20  20  20
FMY  62  77  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
GIF  61  75  59  78 /  10  20  10  20
SRQ  60  69  58  73 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  58  69  54  74 /  10  30  20  30
SPG  62  70  60  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...20/BARRON
MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

 627 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2015

.Update...

The eastward spread of light isentropic showers was missed by
pretty much all of the available hires guidance. Have expanded
PoPs eastward and weighted the forecast towards the HRRR for the
next several hours. Still expect the isentropic rain to weaken
and become more sparse through the early afternoon as discussed
below. At this time the remainder of the forecast remains valid,
though temperature trends will have to be monitored across the Big
Bend and southern GA should rain continue longer than expected.
This could result in lower temps than currently advertised.

&&

.Prev Discussion [342 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Zonal flow aloft will dominate the Southeast today, with a broad
northern stream trough in the northeastern quadrant of the
country, and an upper low cutting off over the Central Great
Basin and west coast. At the surface, a regional subjective
analysis depicts a cold front draped southwest to northeast from
the southern Mississippi Valley into northern Alabama. Extending
east-northeast from northern Alabama is a quasi-stationary
boundary draped up the lee side of the Appalachians. The large
area of light to moderate rain was being forced out ahead of the
surface front, associated with a weak southern stream anomaly.
Another area of light rain along near the Tri-State intersection
is being forced in the near surface 290-295K window.

As warming begins across the Southeast today, the slope of the
isentropes will dampen and the aforementioned area of rain should
come to an end by mid-afternoon. Though, not before spreading an
area of light rain primarily along and west of the Apalachicola
and Chattahoochee rivers. The larger area of precip across the
Southeast this morning will lift northeast with the upper-level
shortwave and the focus for the majority of rainfall across the
Southeast will shift back to the surface front. The front is
expected to just barely reach our southeast Alabama and extreme
western Georgia counties late this afternoon as surface high
pressure builds south. This will yield the best chance for rain
later this afternoon along and northwest of a line from Ben Hill
county to Walton county. Total rain accumulations through today
shouldn`t top a half an inch across southeast Alabama, and a
quarter of an inch elsewhere.

With the sharp precip gradient, a similar temperature gradient is
also expected. Low 70s should be anticipated in aforementioned
areas impacted by rain, while middle to even upper 70s (across
the Suwannee Valley) should be expected elsewhere.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
The cold front mentioned above will push through the forecast area
tonight into Monday. The best chance of rain will be across the
northwest half of the area as the front will be weakening as it
moves through. Model disagreements become apparent by Tuesday as
the NAM and ECMWF spread additional light rain into the area with
a weak upper level shortwave while the GFS is drier. The official
forecast went with a compromise and shows 30-50% PoPs. With an
increase in cloud cover expected on Tuesday, high temperatures
will be held down somewhat with lower 50s expected across the
north and mid 50s to near 60 across the southeast big bend.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
A more significant system is possible on Wednesday with both the
GFS and ECMWF indicating a fairly vigorous upper level shortwave
with a surface low moving along the coast. With the 00z models in
general agreement on the timing, PoPs were bumped up to 70% for
Wednesday. This looks like a decent rainfall producer with a
couple of inches possible across the area. With the surface low
expected to track south of the area, the airmass currently looks
too stable for thunderstorms across our area. After the Wednesday
system, another system is possible for next weekend. Overall, high
temperatures are expected to be a bit below average with lows
near average.


.Aviation...
[Through 12z Monday] MVFR to IFR ceilings should be expected in
and around areas of rainfall through mid-morning. Thereafter, VFR
ceilings should be expected at all terminals but DHN and ABY where
MVFR will prevail with light to moderate rain.


.Marine...
Southerly winds will be subsiding today. However by late tonight
into Monday, a cold front will move through the coastal waters,
bringing an increase in northerly winds possibly to cautionary
levels mainly west of Apalachicola. Winds are then expected to be
light for Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday to near
advisory levels as an area of low pressure moves along the coast.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...
Several rounds of rainfall are possible this week with the best
chance for an areawide moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event
expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is generally expected to be
in the 2-3 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This
will cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites
back up to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected,
although if widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3
inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee and
Aucilla Rivers could come close to minor flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  55  69  49  57 /  70  20  20  40  50
Panama City   65  57  63  48  54 /  70  20  20  40  50
Dothan        71  49  59  41  51 /  70  50  20  40  50
Albany        73  51  61  40  51 /  70  50  20  30  40
Valdosta      76  55  68  45  53 /  60  20  20  40  50
Cross City    76  54  72  50  60 /  30  10  20  30  50
Apalachicola  66  58  68  51  57 /  70  10  20  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 629 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. BY TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE REGION INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE BATCH OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.  THE HRRR
PUSHES THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EAST OF MOST OF THE AREA BY
14Z...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST MODELS DO TRY TO INCREASE THE RAIN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE TRIED TO SHOW THAT TREND.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT STILL SITUATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND THE NORTHERN CSRA.  TEMPERATURES
WEST OF THE FRONT REMAIN AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...WHILE READINGS TO
THE EAST ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THIS FRONT IS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DO FORECAST
THIS FRONT TO LIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO THE UPSTATE BY THE
AFTERNOON...THUS AM FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. HIGHS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST COULD BE HELD DOWN IF THE COLDER
AIR DOES NOT RETREAT FAR ENOUGH WEST DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL BE ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.4 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. 00Z TO 12Z MONDAY QPF IS AROUND
HALF AN INCH TO OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. OVERCAST
SKIES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...IN THE 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PROMOTE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT
EAST...RIDGING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL
ALONG THE COAST. THE BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES LATE MONDAY MORNING THEN
MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF HOURLY MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH A NON-
DIURNAL TREND FOR MONDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK COLD AND UNSETTLED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY PROMOTING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. MODELS
INDICATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF ON
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE GFS KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE MOIST ACROSS THE CWA. GFS POPS ARE MUCH
LOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST POPS
CURRENTLY. MAY HAVE WINTER PRECIP IF THE WETTER ECMWF SCENARIO IS
CORRECT. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND A POSSIBLE WEDGE SETTING UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z...THEN CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  IFR POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN OFF TO THE WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS OFF THE SURFACE HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS...SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF LLWS AT THIS TIME.

BASED OFF OF CONDITIONS FURTHER UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM GUIDANCE...WHICH HOLDS OFF ON THE LOWER
CEILINGS UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
THE NIGHT.  GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GREATER CHANCE FOR IFR DEVELOPMENT
BY 06Z AT ALL SITES.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING...THEN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...POSSIBLY IFR...MONDAY MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 333 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CST

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY ARE THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM CST MONDAY MORNING. COULD EVEN APPROACH
ROCKFORDS RECORD LOW OF -12 F.

1047 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR...VERY DRY AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES...
AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTER COLD
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW
TEMPS REACHING FROM -2 TO -14 ACROSS THE CWA AND WINDS JUST UNDER 10
MPH BY MORNING...WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 BELOW TO NEARLY 30
BELOW ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THUS WIND CHILL ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES WITH NO CHANGES.

ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.
COLD MORNING MINS AND SHALLOW MIXING IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE
WILL LIKELY KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
STARTING TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A RECORD LOW-MAX TEMP FOR THE ROCKFORD AREA MONDAY...AS THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW-MAX FOR RFD 2/23 IS A FAIRLY MILD 17 DEGREES.
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN SUB-ZERO THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY MONDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 25-30
DEGREE RANGE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...THOUGH THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES WILL MAINTAIN A RAW FEEL TO THE
DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AT BEST (ABOVE ZERO AT LEAST).
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AT LEAST IN
A GLANCING NATURE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS WEDNESDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
ALSO LOOK TO VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EVEN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT AT
THIS TIME...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
234 PM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AND MAINTAINS DEEP LARGE
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY...INTO DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. 850 HPA TEMPS DROP INTO THE -16 TO -20 C RANGE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND CLEARING
SKIES AGAIN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY...WHICH FOR THE
END OF FEBRUARY IS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES BELOW OUR NORMAL HIGHS WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR 40 FOR THE END OF THE MONTH.

LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO OFFER SOME HOPE FOR A LITTLE
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A TROUGH ELONGATING
AND BECOMING CUT-OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUS
OUR ARCTIC HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. OF COURSE THIS HELPS TO FEED MILDER AND MORE HUMID
AIR NORTHWARD...FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
WHICH WOULD ALSO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE HAVE MAINTAINED A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID-30S SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW...
THOUGH IF THESE MODEL TRENDS PERSIST IT COULD BE MILDER WITH MIXED
PRECIP OR RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

RATZER

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN ROCKFORD ON MONDAY
FEBRUARY 23RD.

RECORD LOW FOR 2/23:    -12 IN 1910.
RECORD LOW MAX FOR 2/23: 17 IN 1934.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT TODAY AND HOLDING AT 320-330 DEGREES
  THROUGH TONIGHT.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH MAX GUSTS ARND 20 KT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST THIS EVENING
AND THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY...STRONG SW WINDS MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW PSBL. BREEZY
NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
332 PM CST

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KT TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THESE SPEEDS TO
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN REACH THE MID ATLANTIC WEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS
WILL TURN WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TO 30
KT WINDS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO...WITH GALES LIKELY. HAVE ISSUED A GALE AND
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NOT ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NEARSHORE
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THEY DO APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY VERY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS
PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE PREVAILING GALES...AND EVEN FOR A LONGER
DURATION. DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE START TIME OF THE GALES
ACROSS THE LAKE BUT HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE END TIME...WITH
THE GALES POSSIBLY LASTING LONGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 9 AM
     MONDAY.

IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-
     INZ019...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9
     PM MONDAY TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...6 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
     LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868...6 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

Another Arctic air mass settling into our area for tonight and
Monday bringing bitterly cold wind chills tonight through the
mid-morning hours of Monday with values in the -15 to -25 degree
range. Latest upstream observations mostly in the single digits
across north central through northeast Iowa with wind gusts up
to 30 mph at times. Early morning lows are expected to dip to
-2 in the far south to as low as -8 across the north just before
dawn Monday. The center of the Arctic high is forecast by models
to drift into southeast Iowa by 12z Monday with the surface ridge
axis extending northeast into northern Illinois. Forecast soundings
and the latest HRRR model suggests the cloud cover we have over the
area this afternoon will drift east and south later this evening
with mainly some cirrus for the first half of the night and then
a mostly clear sky is expected after midnight most areas. Current
Wind Chill Advisory will remain in place for late tonight through
9AM Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

As the center of the cold air mass drifts across the area tomorrow,
look for winds to diminish during the day but temperatures will be
slow to rise with afternoon highs struggling to 10 to 15. The high
should be moving off to our east by afternoon and early evening
with our next surface low and cold front tracking across southern
Canada southwest through the Northern Plains. Early in the evening,
surface winds will be light enough for our usual tank with early
evening temepratures before we see a steady or slowly rising trend
across the north and west, while further east with a lighter wind
flow, early morning lows will dip several degrees below zero Monday
night into Tuesday morning. As the deep surface low tracks north
of Lake Superior on Tuesday, a gusty south to southwest wind should
help the mercury climb into the mid 20s far east to the low to mid
30s far west where we should be able to mix out fairly well during the
afternoon. With the better upper forcing remaining well to our north
and very limited moisture, models not showing much if any precip
associated with the boundary as it swings across our area late in
the day, except for the GFS which continues to produce a large area
of 0.01 qpf with this system. Not worth much more than a chance for
flurries and will continue with that for later in the day on Tuesday.
Then we will see another cold air mass build gradually southeast thru
midweek.

The GFS and latest ECMWF continue to show a weak shortwave racing
southeast into the Plains on Wednesday along the periphery of the
next batch of cold air for the remainder of the work week. The
GFS keeps any precip associated with this wave to our west and
south while the latest ECMWF has trended in that direction as well
but does bring in some light QPF late Wednesday/Wednesday evening.
Based on the latest westward shift with the ECMWF, will only have
slight chances Wednesday night for light snow. Colder temperatures
filter into the area again Wednesday night with early morning lows
dropping into the single digits with wind chills dropping to near
-10 by Thursday morning.

And a real surprise here, the well below normal temperatures are
expected to hold on across our area through at least the end of
the work week with daytime highs in the teens and early morning
lows dropping into the single digits with a few below zero readings
again possible ealry Friday morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate
a significant change to the upper pattern with more of a southwesterly
flow developing over the weekend which will lead to an increasing
threat for precipitation. Models showing more agreement from what
we saw yesterday with snow chances moving in starting on Saturday
night with the threat for snow or rain on Sunday with warming
temperatures. Even seeing some better agreement with the ensemble
members with respect to the pattern change along with timing of
the precip into our area later Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures
will start to turn around on Saturday and Sunday, but still average
below the nomal highs of 40 to 45 across the area for late February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015
VFR throughout. Northerly winds continuing through the TAF pd.
Some mid clouds streaming through the region as high pressure
builds in. GFS and NAM time heights show a thinning of the
mid/high clouds moving towards morning and potentially an SKC late
morning/mid day just as the TAFs are wrapping up.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...HJS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1012 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

AFTER REVIEW OF THE 0Z NAM AND 21Z SREF OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BELL...HARLAN...AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FURTHER AND UP AMOUNTS A TAD BASED ON
THIS GUIDANCE TO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SREF PROB OF GREATER THAN
1 INCH IN 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA IS 50 TO 80 PERCENT. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT ON THE VA BORDER.

THERE SHOULD BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. IN
COUNTIES JUST NORTH AND WEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A
DUSTING OR JUST FLURRIES FROM WHITLEY CITY TO LONDON EAST AND
NORTHEAST TO TO NEAR HAZARD TO SOUTH OF PRESTONSBURG TO THE BELFRY
AND SOUTH WILLIAMSON AREA. AMOUNTS OF ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ARE ANTICIPATED IN EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
WHITLEY...KNOX...CLAY...LESLIE...PERRY...KNOTT...FLOYD AND PIKE
COUNTIES.

THE SPS WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY WITH HOURLY GRIDS FRESHENED
BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

SEVERAL UPDATES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE AS THE 18Z GFS AND 18Z
NAM AS WELL AS 21Z SREF AND HRR AND RAP RUNS ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
FROM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES REACHING THE VA
AND SOME OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE FAR NORTH MAY REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THAT TIME. WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SNOW ON THE GROUND...IT STILL
APPEARS SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEEN ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MID TEENS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
BORDER AREA AND SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ALONG OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF A STEARNS TO LONDON TO
HAZARD TO PIKEVILLE TO SOUTH WILLIAMSON LINE. A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE
VA BORDER. SOME GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IN THE FORECAST ATTM IS FOR
BELL...HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
WHETHER OR NOT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA AS THE 0Z
GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL THE EXTREMELY
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS CLEARLY SHOW A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...IT WILL PULL FRIGID ARCTIC AIR
SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. EVEN THOUGH TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WE
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SINGLE LOWS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY TODAY...CLOUD COVER SCATTERED OUT
MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT IS THE PASSAGE
OF A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
THESE CLOUDS WOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES IN
OUR FAR NORTH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS...
EVERYONE SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO...IF ONLY SLIGHTLY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 30S FOR MOST FOLKS...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED BEFORE...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...AS SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. EACH OF
THESE COULD SPAWN SOME FLURRIES...BUT OUR BEST SHOT OF SNOW WILL
COME ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING
ANY DEEP MOISTURE THOUGH SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW OUR THURSDAY SYSTEM
WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS
IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR AREA IN
RESPONSE. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE A MODERATING
TREND. UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT INCREASING
MOISTURE...AND IN TIME...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. SOME MIXED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS PTYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALL RAIN BY NOON ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AT LEAST. WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WATER LOCKED UP IN OUR
SNOW PACK...AND MORE IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS OF THE HEADWATERS OF
OUR RIVERS...ANY WARM UP AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST IS TROUBLING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS BY TO THE SOUTH. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD AFFECT
AREAS SOUTH OF A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE WITH MVFR EXPECTED BY THE
8Z TO 12Z WINDOW AT SME...LOZ...JKL AND SJS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 910 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

SEVERAL UPDATES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE AS THE 18Z GFS AND 18Z
NAM AS WELL AS 21Z SREF AND HRR AND RAP RUNS ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
FROM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES REACHING THE VA
AND SOME OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE FAR NORTH MAY REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THAT TIME. WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SNOW ON THE GROUND...IT STILL
APPEARS SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEEN ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MID TEENS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
BORDER AREA AND SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ALONG OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF A STEARNS TO LONDON TO
HAZARD TO PIKEVILLE TO SOUTH WILLIAMSON LINE. A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE
VA BORDER. SOME GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IN THE FORECAST ATTM IS FOR
BELL...HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
WHETHER OR NOT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA AS THE 0Z
GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL THE EXTREMELY
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS CLEARLY SHOW A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...IT WILL PULL FRIGID ARCTIC AIR
SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. EVEN THOUGH TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WE
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SINGLE LOWS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY TODAY...CLOUD COVER SCATTERED OUT
MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT IS THE PASSAGE
OF A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
THESE CLOUDS WOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES IN
OUR FAR NORTH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS...
EVERYONE SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO...IF ONLY SLIGHTLY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 30S FOR MOST FOLKS...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED BEFORE...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...AS SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. EACH OF
THESE COULD SPAWN SOME FLURRIES...BUT OUR BEST SHOT OF SNOW WILL
COME ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING
ANY DEEP MOISTURE THOUGH SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW OUR THURSDAY SYSTEM
WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS
IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR AREA IN
RESPONSE. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE A MODERATING
TREND. UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT INCREASING
MOISTURE...AND IN TIME...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. SOME MIXED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS PTYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALL RAIN BY NOON ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AT LEAST. WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WATER LOCKED UP IN OUR
SNOW PACK...AND MORE IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS OF THE HEADWATERS OF
OUR RIVERS...ANY WARM UP AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST IS TROUBLING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS BY TO THE SOUTH. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD AFFECT
AREAS SOUTH OF A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE WITH MVFR EXPECTED BY THE
8Z TO 12Z WINDOW AT SME...LOZ...JKL AND SJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 236 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS LSX AND LMK DECIDED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY A ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND THEN
FROM PERRY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SCOTT AND STODDARD IN MISSOURI. IT
LOOKS A LITTLE FUNKY IN MISSOURI...BUT THAT IS DUE TO THE CORE OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THAT REGION. THE WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY FORECAST
OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY DO
NOT QUITE GET DOWN TO 10 BELOW...BUT LEFT THAT ALONE BECAUSE IT
WILL BE CLOSE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE LOWS WELL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA MAY SEE SOME NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL GIVE THIS A MENTION IN THE HWO.

KEPT A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VAN BUREN MISSOURI
TO MURRAY KENTUCKY. THE HRRR AND WRF RUNS REALLY DRY UP ANY ECHOES
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...AND THERE HASN`T BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SNOW
REACHING THE GROUND THIS SIDE OF KJLN. WON`T BE COMPLETELY
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. FIGURE THAT COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT ENDED UP RAISING LOWS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS GIVING QUITE A RANGE FOR FIRST PERIOD LOWS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON MONDAY IS A BIT TOO COLD. LEANED TOWARD THE LESS COLD
NAM/MET NUMBERS...BUT IT WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO GET THROUGH THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NOT SURE IF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP MUCH MONDAY NIGHT OR NOT. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OR
CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE.
DEFINITELY WENT TO THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...SO A
DECENT WARM UP IS FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING OFF SO COLD...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE FREEZING
MARK.

A DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILD...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 ALL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.   THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND SETTLE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP
OFF TO EVEN COLDER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK IN THE 30S AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON TIMING AND TRACK OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ECMWF BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL QPF.  ECMWF SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE GFS JUST SHOW MINIMAL
QPF REACHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY
SUNDAY BOTH MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FA.  JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.  BOTH MODELS YESTERDAY
SHOWED THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
SO WE STILL ARE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.  THE LATER TIMING
DOES AT LEAST ALLOW SOME "WARMER" TO GET INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, THUS LEADING TO LESS WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT MIDDAY. THERE IS SOME
SIGN OF CLEARING FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH
ALL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MVFR HAZE AT LEAST AT KPAH CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER
MELTING SNOWPACK. THE STRONGEST OF THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SHOULD
BE OVER KCGI WHERE THEY MAY GUST OVER 20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE NORTH WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT IN THE MORNING...WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>091.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-110-111.

IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     KYZ010-014-015-018>020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 930 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.


THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE STREAMERS OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE, WIND CHILLS AND OF COURSE TEMPERATURES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS MOVING E OFF THE ST
LAWRENCE. LLVL CONVERGENCE SHOWING UP ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE(THE CROWN MOST PARTICULARLY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY COULD BRING AN INCH OF
SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND THEN WINDS BEGIN TO LET UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 800MBS W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT.
DECIDED TO BOOST POPS UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS(60-80%) TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW. THE RAP/NAM12 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS
WERE DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW A FACTOR INTO
THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
9 PM. HISTORICALLY, CLOUDS AND STREAMERS BREAK UP AS THE WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. THIS IS SHOWN TO
BE THE CASE LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER S, BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES
W/SOME SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY
COLD IF NOT BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WE ARE TALKING 15 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AND PERHAPS 30 BELOW IN THE SHELTERED AREAS. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL 10 TO 15 BELOW EVEN TO THE COAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE
ON THE DOCKET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY APPROACHING WARNING
CRITERIA(-35F) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ATTM,
DECIDED TO STAY W/WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AS THE WINDOW LOOKS TO BE
SHORT(<3 HRS) FOR WIND CHILLS TO HIT <-35F AND WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP OFF BELOW 10 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY AND VERY COLD W/HIGH PRES RIDGING
INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IF FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION QUICKLY DURING THE DAY W/CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE BY THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IN THE SINGLE NUMBER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE 10 TO 15
AT BEST AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH, OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST,
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETERMINING
HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND HOW CLOSE THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CARRIES THE LOW
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING SPREADING SNOW ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ON UP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A
SMALL, FAST MOVING LOW AND APPEARS WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM
DOWNEAST AREAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN AREAS OF NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS OUT. THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING JUST A QUICK SNOWFALL OF MODERATE
INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE QUICK TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES AS DRY AND BREEZY
WEATHER FOLLOWS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
DOWNEAST AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE HIGH WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY, THEN WARM UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE
HIGH ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/IFR VSBYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS(NORTH OF KHUL) DUE TO THE STREAMERS OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE. FURTHER SOUTH, GENERALLY VFR. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP OFF
LEADING TO VFR. IT LOOKS LIKE VFR FOR THE ENTIRE AVIATION SECTOR
FOR TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN
IFR VERY LATE AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE NOW HITTING GALE FORCE(35 KTS) ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER ZONES AS THE CAA IS HITTING IN EARNEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING W/GUSTS TO 40 KTS. THE NAM12 WAS
DOING WELL W/THE CURRENT SETUP. WINDS WILL START DROPPING OFF
LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE SW RIDGES EASTWARD. GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE WARNING IS UP FOR HEAVY ICING
POTENTIAL. SEAS ARE COMING UP BUT WERE SLOWER TO RESPOND. SEAS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 8 FT OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING MAINLY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-031-032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 630 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE 1825 EST: NO MAJOR CHANGES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...
WINDS AND DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.


THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE STREAMERS OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE, WIND CHILLS AND OF COURSE TEMPERATURES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS MOVING E OFF THE ST
LAWRENCE. LLVL CONVERGENCE SHOWING UP ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE(THE CROWN MOST PARTICULARLY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY COULD BRING AN INCH OF
SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND THEN WINDS BEGIN TO LET UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 800MBS W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT.
DECIDED TO BOOST POPS UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS(60-80%) TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW. THE RAP/NAM12 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS
WERE DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW A FACTOR INTO
THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
9 PM. HISTORICALLY, CLOUDS AND STREAMERS BREAK UP AS THE WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. THIS IS SHOWN TO
BE THE CASE LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER S, BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES
W/SOME SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY
COLD IF NOT BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WE ARE TALKING 15 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AND PERHAPS 30 BELOW IN THE SHELTERED AREAS. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL 10 TO 15 BELOW EVEN TO THE COAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE
ON THE DOCKET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY APPROACHING WARNING
CRITERIA(-35F) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ATTM,
DECIDED TO STAY W/WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AS THE WINDOW LOOKS TO BE
SHORT(<3 HRS) FOR WIND CHILLS TO HIT <-35F AND WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP OFF BELOW 10 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY AND VERY COLD W/HIGH PRES RIDGING
INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IF FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION QUICKLY DURING THE DAY W/CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE BY THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IN THE SINGLE NUMBER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE 10 TO 15
AT BEST AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH, OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST,
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETERMINING
HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND HOW CLOSE THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CARRIES THE LOW
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING SPREADING SNOW ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ON UP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A
SMALL, FAST MOVING LOW AND APPEARS WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM
DOWNEAST AREAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN AREAS OF NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS OUT. THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING JUST A QUICK SNOWFALL OF MODERATE
INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE QUICK TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES AS DRY AND BREEZY
WEATHER FOLLOWS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
DOWNEAST AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE HIGH WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY, THEN WARM UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE
HIGH ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/IFR VSBYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS(NORTH OF KHUL) DUE TO THE STREAMERS OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE. FURTHER SOUTH, GENERALLY VFR. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP OFF
LEADING TO VFR. IT LOOKS LIKE VFR FOR THE ENTIRE AVIATION SECTOR
FOR TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN
IFR VERY LATE AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE NOW HITTING GALE FORCE(35 KTS) ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER ZONES AS THE CAA IS HITTING IN EARNEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING W/GUSTS TO 40 KTS. THE NAM12 WAS
DOING WELL W/THE CURRENT SETUP. WINDS WILL START DROPPING OFF
LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE SW RIDGES EASTWARD. GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE WARNING IS UP FOR HEAVY ICING
POTENTIAL. SEAS ARE COMING UP BUT WERE SLOWER TO RESPOND. SEAS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 8 FT OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING MAINLY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-031-032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 711 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME SNOW. CONSIDERABLE
DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL TRACK IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING STORM AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE DEALS WITH THE IMPACT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT TRACKS THROUGH ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL IT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH IMPACTS TO WARRANT HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

I DID CHECK IN WITH A COUPLE OF ROAD COMMISSIONS AND THEY
INDICATED THAT WINDS OVER 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. EVEN SOME
HIGHWAYS COULD BE IMPACTED. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS GUSTS TOPPING 40
KNOTS FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS NORTHEAST THROUGH MOUNT PLEASANT AND
BETTER THAN 35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE
LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON...WITH BETTER THAN 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
I AM NOT CERTAIN WILL SEE SUCH HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER ENOUGH RISK
THERE TO GO WITH A HEADLINE. THE MAIN WINDOW OF STRONG WINDS
RANGES FROM 09Z TO 18Z FOR LUDINGTON...13Z TO 21Z FOR GRAND RAPIDS
AND 16Z TO 23Z FOR JACKSON.

SNOW ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UP
NORTH FROM LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. FURTHER SOUTH GRAND RAPIDS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...TO AN INCH OR LESS FOR
JACKSON AND LANSING. STILL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW...
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY AT TIMES. LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS COULD START THE DAY OFF WITH SOME SUN.

WIND CHILL VALUES ON TUESDAY COULD START OFF AROUND -15 DEGREES...
WHICH IS HAZARDOUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER A LULL IN THE WIND...WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF
SNOW AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
ASSESS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LATCHED ONTO FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS NOW. CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY DRY...BUT COLD FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND LIKELY MONDAY TOO. HOWEVER IT`S THE PERIOD
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT PROMISES TO BE
INTERESTING.

IT/S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW
CWA SATURDAY EVENING...LIKELY AS SNOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST AND
SO THERE WILL BE A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE. DESPITE THE MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT STILL HAS SOME ISSUES. ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SHOW THIS BEGINNING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND THEN PHASING WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AS IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS ISN/T THE CLASSIC STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NEWD. AT LEAST NOT YET. QPF WITH THE SYSTEM IS PROGD
IN THE 2/3 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE...WHICH IF ALL SNOW WOULD CERTAINLY BE
PLOWABLE. THE WARMER ECMWF WOULD LIKELY TURN PCPN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE WE KEPT THE PCPN
AS SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

ALL OF THE PCPN WILL LIKELY END MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
AFTER DAYBREAK TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING BEFORE
THE SNOW MOVES IN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLICK RUNWAY CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING RUSH.

THE FALLING SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST... REACHING MKG AROUND 15Z AND LAN/JXN AROUND 19Z. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND LOWEST VSBYS WILL BE AT MKG AND GRR SO WENT WITH
PREDOMINATELY IFR VSBYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THESE TWO SITES AND
MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
HOWEVER FOR IFR TO DEVELOP AT ALL THE TERMINALS DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT OF THE BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

WITH NO MAJOR WARM UPS OR RAINFALL HEADED OUR WAY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...RUNOFF WILL BE LIMITED. SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL
OCCUR.  CONSIDERABLE ICE DOES EXIST IN THE RIVERS SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. FOR NOW WITH CONDITIONS STABLE DUE TO
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE RISK IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 359 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

A VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS OF -29C
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HAS LED TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AROUND 25-30 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 AT KCMX TO 7 AT KMNM. THE
COLD AIR AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE ICE...OR AT LEAST AREAS OF THIN
ICE...HAS CONTINUED TO LEAD TO VERY THIN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WHILE THE BANDS HAVE
BEEN THIN...OBS AND WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN THAT THEY CONTINUE TO BE
EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDY WELL BELOW
THE DGZ. THOSE VERY LOCALIZED LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN
AIDED BY BLOWING SNOW FROM THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30MPH.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE IS NOSING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WEST AND MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE EAST. THESE BACKING WINDS...ALONG WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM THE
LIMITED HEATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DIURNAL CU
DISSIPATE...WITH THE EASTERN U.P. HANGING ON THE LONGEST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING FROM JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND THE REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP LOWS FROM
GETTING AS COLD AS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO ON THE CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS. BUT
WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND LITTLE REBOUND IN TEMPS TODAY...HAVE
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BELOW ZERO FOR TONIGHT. WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS OF 4-8MPH TONIGHT...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
REMAIN IN THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DO
HAVE A FEW AREAS WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA
(GENERALLY OVER IRON COUNTY)...BUT WITH WINDS IN THOSE AREAS ONLY
AROUND 5MPH OVERNIGHT...DIDN/T FEEL THAT THE WINDS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO OUR 10MPH CRITERIA TO ISSUE THE WARNING. ALSO AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AS THEY HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH OVER
THE -35 CRITERIA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS BACK AND THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT PIVOTS OVER THAT AREA. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE
VERY COLD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT
WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR BETWEEN 900-700MB...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
TO STAY OFF TO THE WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING. THUS...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW TO SOME AREAS OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO TOMORROW...BUT WITH THE INCREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IT
WILL STILL FEEL VERY COLD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

PATTERN OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN
NAMERICA AND DEEP TROF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA WL PERSIST THRU
MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT THAT WL
BRING ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE UPPER LKS THRU MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK THOUGH...FALLING HGTS OVER THE W WL ALLOW FOR A MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND SOME AIRMASS MODERATION. BUT WITH DRY HI PRES FCST TO
BE DOMINATING...LOW TEMPS MAY STILL BE QUITE COLD DESPITE THE MORE
SEASONABLE H85 AND DAYTIME TEMPS.

MON NGT/TUE...SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW DESCENDING SE INTO FAR
NW ONTARIO BY MON EVNG ARE FCST TO SLIDE JUST NE OF LK SUP DURING
THIS TIME...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FROPA MOVING OVER UPR MI LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE MRNG. SOME LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI FM THE NW ON
MON NGT AND PERSIST INTO TUE MRNG BEFORE THE COLD FROPA. SINCE THE
MSTR INFLOW WL BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 1-1.5
G/KG FCST ON 280K ISENTROPIC SFC...AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS
IN PLACE WHICH WL TAKE TIME TO MOISTEN...ACCOMPANYING SN ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF CWA WITH
MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING 3-4 INCHES FAR EAST AND OVER TIP OF
KEWEENAW...WHERE HIGHER POPS/QPF WL BE MAINTAINED CLOSER TO THE
SHRTWV TRACK...LONGER DURATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND AREA OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV. ALTHOUGH MODELS SNDGS INDICATE THE
DGZ TO BE RATHER DEEP AND INTERSECTING MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
UVV...STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE LAYER MIGHT BREAK UP THE
DENDRITES TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT AT SAME TIME...THE SMALLER FLAKES
WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT AT RESTRICTING VSBY WHILE BEING BLOWN ABOUT
BY THE GUSTY VEERING WINDS OCCURRING UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH H85 THERMAL RDG OVER UPR MI ON MON NGT
AND THE GUSTY WINDS...EXPECT RELATIVELY HIGH MIN TEMPS. WSHFT TO THE
NW FOLLOWING THE TUE MORNING COLD FROPA WL DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTN...DROPPING H85 TEMPS TO -20C
OR COLDER AGAIN BY 00Z WED AND ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED LES
TO DEVELOP IN WHATEVER BREAKS THERE ARE IN LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER.

TUE NGT INTO WED NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FCSTS H85 TEMPS TO
FALL AS LO AS -28C TO -30C AROUND 12Z WED IN COLD NNW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LES OFF BREAKS IN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...BUT THE
BIGGEST STORY WL BE WIND CHILLS AT LEAST REACHING INTO ADVY CRITERIA
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS 950 MB WINDS ARE FCST AOA 30 KTS
DURING THE DESTABILIZING PERIOD OF CAA THAT WL DROP MIN TEMPS BLO
ZERO AGAIN. AFTER HIGHS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO REACH ABV ZERO OVER
THE NW CWA ON WED...ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WED
NIGHT WITH DOUBLE DIGIT BLO ZERO READINGS LIKELY OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA.

THU INTO SUN...THE ARCTIC HI OVER SCENTRAL CANADA ON WED IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE REACHING THE NRN PLAINS ON THU...AND THE MID
MS VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY ON FRI BEFORE
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SAT UNDER A PATTERN OF SLOWLY
RISING 5H HGTS IN THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROFFING OVER WRN
NAMERICA. THE RESULT WL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX UNDER DOMINANT
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LES MAINLY E OF
MARQUETTE INTO THU WHILE THE LLVL FLOW IS STILL NW...BACKING WINDS
TOWARD THE W AND THEN SW WL SHIFT ANY REMAINING LES OUT INTO LK SUP
BY LATE THU NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO -15C TO -17C BY
FRI/SAT...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM NEAR 20F UNDER A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS (BLO
ZERO) AT LEAST THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT AS FCST PWAT IS LOWER THAN
.10 INCH UNDER LIGHT WINDS. MORE CLDS AND LIGHT MAY ARRIVE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
KIWD...DUE TO THE THIN ICE TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS...AND
OFF TO THE EAST OF KSAW. WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT KIWD/KCMX. MUCH OF THE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCMX IS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WITH LITTLE TO
NO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SEEN UPSTREAM. AT KIWD...STARTING TO SEE THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS PUSH TO THE EAST AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE AT KSAW...OPTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS AT VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CU...ALTHOUGH
THE BLOWING SNOW OR CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THAT FRONT WILL GIVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WHILE SHIFTING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING
WINDS TONIGHT...BEFORE QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ MONDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 306 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

A VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS OF -29C
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HAS LED TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AROUND 25-30 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 AT KCMX TO 7 AT KMNM. THE
COLD AIR AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE ICE...OR AT LEAST AREAS OF THIN
ICE...HAS CONTINUED TO LEAD TO VERY THIN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WHILE THE BANDS HAVE
BEEN THIN...OBS AND WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN THAT THEY CONTINUE TO BE
EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDY WELL BELOW
THE DGZ. THOSE VERY LOCALIZED LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN
AIDED BY BLOWING SNOW FROM THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30MPH.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE IS NOSING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WEST AND MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE EAST. THESE BACKING WINDS...ALONG WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM THE
LIMITED HEATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DIURNAL CU
DISSIPATE...WITH THE EASTERN U.P. HANGING ON THE LONGEST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING FROM JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND THE REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP LOWS FROM
GETTING AS COLD AS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO ON THE CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS. BUT
WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND LITTLE REBOUND IN TEMPS TODAY...HAVE
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BELOW ZERO FOR TONIGHT. WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS OF 4-8MPH TONIGHT...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
REMAIN IN THE -25 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DO
HAVE A FEW AREAS WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA
(GENERALLY OVER IRON COUNTY)...BUT WITH WINDS IN THOSE AREAS ONLY
AROUND 5MPH OVERNIGHT...DIDN/T FEEL THAT THE WINDS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO OUR 10MPH CRITERIA TO ISSUE THE WARNING. ALSO AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AS THEY HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH OVER
THE -35 CRITERIA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS BACK AND THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT PIVOTS OVER THAT AREA. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE
VERY COLD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT
WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR BETWEEN 900-700MB...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
TO STAY OFF TO THE WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING. THUS...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW TO SOME AREAS OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO TOMORROW...BUT WITH THE INCREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IT
WILL STILL FEEL VERY COLD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

ONLY 1 MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN THIS PERIOD...OTHERWISE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE. MUCH OF THE WEATHER...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LES ON THE W TO NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT
AND THICKNESS OF THE ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
LAKE MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WILL STILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH LOW WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY
MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40F BELOW ZERO...WITH THE LOWEST
READINGS IN THE TYPICALLY COLD WATERSMEET THROUGH IRON AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND
HIGHLIGHT THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES PLAYING A BIGGER ROLE THAN THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS IN CREATING THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY WAA ON INCREASING SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND -23C TO START THE DAY WILL BOUNCE UP TO AROUND -11C.
AFTER THE +5 TO -6F DAY EXPECTED TODAY...HIGHS AROUND 10F MONDAY
WILL BE A BIT OF A RELIEF.

STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN. BY 00Z TUESDAY...EXPECT W 850MB FLOW OF 40-
60KTS. IN FACT IT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG W TO NW WINDS
FROM 00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...PEAKING 06-12Z TUESDAY...AS UPPER
MI RESIDES BETWEEN THE STRONG SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND LOW ALONG THE N MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER
CROSSING CENTRAL ONTARIO AND EXTENDING A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR W
CWA. DID NOT CHANGE FCST MUCH FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...ALTHOUGH
BLOWING SNOW WAS EXPANDED A BIT MORE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE RETURN OF COLD AIR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ON. YET ANOTHER STRONG/COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM FAR
NW CANADA THROUGH ND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SINK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N-
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY MENTIONED THAT WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO 20 TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
KIWD...DUE TO THE THIN ICE TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS...AND
OFF TO THE EAST OF KSAW. WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT KIWD/KCMX. MUCH OF THE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCMX IS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WITH LITTLE TO
NO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SEEN UPSTREAM. AT KIWD...STARTING TO SEE THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS PUSH TO THE EAST AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE AT KSAW...OPTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS AT VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CU...ALTHOUGH
THE BLOWING SNOW OR CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THAT FRONT WILL GIVE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WHILE SHIFTING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING
WINDS TONIGHT...BEFORE QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ MONDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM
     CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 710 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE UPDATES TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN AND UP ICE AMOUNTS
IN SW TO CENTRAL MS WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS OF FZRA/IP ARE FOCUSING.
SE PROGRESSION OF FREEZING LINE GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK BUT MADE
SLIGHT EDITS. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY CONTINUED SHOWERY PCPN
TRAINING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR ALONG/W OF JACKSON METRO AREA AS
SOME LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH ICE STORM CRITERIA IF THIS CONTINUES
AS RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERING EXTENDING FZRA
ADVISORY A LITTLE FARTHER E/SE. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

..WINTRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WERE BEING OBSERVED AT MID AFTERNOON GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STARKVILLE TO RAYMOND TO JUST WEST OF
NATCHEZ. LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MIXED
WITH LIGHT SLEET HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA THAT WAS HELPING
DRIVE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
MIXING WITH LIGHT SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING
MITIGATING ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAZARDS BUT FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL THE RAIN
ENDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF IT LOOKS LIKE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
SURGE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF OUR
CWA MAY COME UNDER AN ADVISORY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH SO A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
OUR CWA HELPING BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DELTA
MELTING ANY REMAINING ICE. THE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY LAST INTO THE EVENING AS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY A CLOSED LOW WILL
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THEN OPEN UP AND TRACK EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES OUR CWA
FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BACK OVER OUR
CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST
OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. CURRENT THINKING
SUGGESTS TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. MAINLY
A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A BASTROP TO BELZONI TO MACON LINE. EXPECT FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN
LATER FORECASTS OF THIS EVENT AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN LESSER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IF
THE COLD CORE TRACK IS DIFFERENT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
OF MISSISSIPPI. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 60S.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE NIGHT...AND WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF FZRA AND PL GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR AND IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH VISBYS FALLING INTO
MVFR/IFR RANGE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF STEADIER PRECIP. THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ALL PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF FZRA AND/OR PL AT GLH AND
GWO. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST RA WILL TRANSITION TO FZRA...DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AT GTR AND AFTER SUNSET AT HKS AND JAN. A TRANSITION
TO FZRA IS POSSIBLE AT MEI CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TUES. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY TUES MORNING. CIGS MAY BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA BY TUES LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       29  40  32  37 /  89  18  45 100
MERIDIAN      31  44  32  38 /  86  22  32 100
VICKSBURG     25  39  31  37 /  89  17  56 100
HATTIESBURG   35  47  35  42 /  60  30  48 100
NATCHEZ       28  41  32  39 /  90  29  68 100
GREENVILLE    22  36  30  35 /  61   7  30  97
GREENWOOD     26  37  29  35 /  68   8  23  97

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ037>039-
     042>050-053-054-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-
     019-025>036-040-041.

LA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ015-016-
     023>026.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     LAZ007>009.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 336 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME ORGANIZED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES...BUT
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 PM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH FEELS RELATIVELY WARM COMPARED
TO WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. THIS IS ABOUT TO CHANGE WITH
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE DOORSTEP...ROUGHLY EXTENDING
FROM CLEVELAND TO TORONTO. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FRONT. BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AS THE FRONT
PICKS UP MORE MOISTURE AND FROM INCREASED OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT...AND SHOWS INCREASING QPF...BUT BASED ON
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS WINTER SUSPECT THIS IS A BIT
UNDERDONE. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY PACK A DECENT PUNCH AS IT
CROSSES...BRINGING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND
2 TO 3 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ALSO PLAY A
ROLE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE ITS TIMING SPOT ON...SO WILL LEAN ON
THIS FOR TIMING OF THE FROPA AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW. FOLLOWING THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND
CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUDS...AND WARMING FROM THE OPEN
WATERS WILL LIMIT THE DROP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. NORMALLY...850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -28C WOULD SPARK A
SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE. HOWEVER...THE ICE COVERAGES AND DRY AIR
UPSTREAM WILL PROBABLY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY SIMILAR TO HOW IT
DID LAST ARCTIC BLAST ONCE THE SHORTWAVE CLEARED. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE WITH THE
FRONT...WITH LESS ACCUMULATION FROM THE LAKE EFFECT. PARAMETERS GET
A BIT BETTER ON MONDAY WHEN WIND ALOFT BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED BUT
STILL EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE
INCHES. WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE BITTERLY COLD. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO...WITH MID-DAY WIND CHILLS
STILL AVERAGING 15 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND BACK THE BOUNDARY WINDS TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ON LAKE ONTARIO
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK
STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDE-SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT LIKELY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARD 20 BUT EVEN
SO IS THIS WHERE THE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFALL WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID TEENS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...THEN A COLDER ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS WILL FALL TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHILL WESTERLIES ALONG THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THE OH-SO-FAMILIAR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERN SHORE COUNTIES. SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING BUT A LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 8KFT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE SNOW...POSSIBLY MORE FROM MID LAKE TO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT ON THURSDAY
WHERE NAEFS CLIMATE ENSEMBLES REGISTER THE AIRMASS AT AN EXTREME
MINIMUM. HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY RISE BACK TO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO
LOWER TEENS. THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA WITH AN
END OF THE LAKE EFFECT AND MORE SUNSHINE. STILL COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES QUASIZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST AND PROVIDE A SUNNIER DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN
FLOW WEST OF THE HIGH CENTER WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ENHANCE THIS MOISTURE FLUX AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 20Z...THERE IS A MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A LINGERING
MVFR CLOUD DECK. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
03Z AND BRING A COUPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS JUST BEHIND IT. STEADIEST SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT
BUF/IAG/ART...WHERE THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND A BIT
MORE MOISTURE. THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT ROC WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE ON LAKE ONTARIO MUTING THE EFFECT SOMEWHAT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND LIFT ANY LAKE
SNOWS NORTH OF ROC.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT ART.
TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

MARINE HEADLINES ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ICE FORMING ON LAKE ONTARIO.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF ICE
ACROSS THE LAKE...WITH MANY OF THESE GETTING PUSHED BY THE FLOW.
THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LARGE WAVES BUILD...AND ALSO HOW
MUCH FREEZING SPRAY THERE IS. SINCE THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE ICE ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...WE HAVE UPGRADED
TO A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THERE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL ONLY CARRY THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW SINCE ICE COVERS MUCH OF
THE NEARSHORE WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN A SW
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---AS ARCTIC AIR AGAIN SWEEPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE AIRMASS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR THIS EVENING MAY NOT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO RECORD
LEVELS BY THE CLOSE OF MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER ON MONDAY WE MAY NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE. BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOW
MINIMUMS...AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS.

STATION:    DATE        RECORD LOW (F)   RECORD LOW MAXIMUM (F)

BUFFALO     FEB 23RD     -6 (1889)          1 (1889)

ROCHESTER   FEB 23RD     -5 (1889)          0 (1889)

WATERTOWN   FEB 23RD    -29 (1972)         12 (1965)


---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR YEARS TO
COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS HISTORY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  43.7        1910
            4  42.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/20)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  42.7        1910
            5  40.7        1978
            6  40.6        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/20)



---IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 7 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         8          1934
         7          1963
         7          1875
         7          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 14 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        15          1993
        15          1979
        14          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001-006>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ002>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043-062-063.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...THOMAS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1252 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION WILL TRACK
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES AND AT TIMES DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
11 AM UPDATE... JUST MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND TEMP GRIDS
ATTM...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

RECENT SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLDNS OVER
PTNS OF WRN/CNTRL NY AND NRN PA. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
THINNING OF THE CLDS THIS AFTN...WE THINK CLDS WILL STILL HAVE THE
UPPER HAND OVERALL...GIVEN THE STEEP THERMAL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z
KBUF SNDG...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT BLYR MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
BLO THIS FEATURE.

DESPITE THE CLDS...TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD COMPARED TO OUR
RECENT BITTER COLD STRETCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S-LWR 30S IN
MOST AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FLRYS/-SHSN EXPECTED ALG AND AHD
OF TNT`S ARCTIC FROPA WILL HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...OR
MORE LIKELY THIS EVE.

PREV DISC... THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WAS EXITING
NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
RIPPLES INTO NY AND PA ERLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN NO
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ANYWHERE IN CNTRL OR WRN NY OR NRN AND
WRN PA AND LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS I REALLY DON/T SEE ANY
POTENTIAL. SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ARND -7C AND
WITH UPLIFT IT WUD BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SUBSDC BEHIND THIS UPPER WAVE ANYWAY SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY AS
CAA BEGINS AND TRAPS MOISTURE UNDER A SHARP INVERSION ARND 900
MB. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS POISE TO PASS THRU THE REGION THIS
EVENING SO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALMOST SEASONABLE IN
TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE INVERSION RISES TO ABT 850 MB WHEN THE ARCTIC
PASSES BY WITH MINIMAL CAPE. THERE CUD BE SOME SNOW SQUALLS BUT
AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SNOW SQUALL EVENT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WARM IT GETS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THIS FAR OUT(WRF_NMM AND WRF_ARW) ARE
NOT SHOWING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT EITHER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE RAP AND HRRR CATCH ONTO SOMETHING WHEN THEY GET TO THIS
EVENINGS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS SOMETHING TO PASS ONTO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

AFTER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY...THE USUAL 290 DEGREE LES SETS UP
BUT IT LIKELY WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS
DOWNWIND...MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES AT BEST. BIG STORY WILL BE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON FAIRLY STRG NW WINDS. MINS MONDAY AM WILL BE
FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN NY STATE WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 BELOW ZERO AS IT STANDS NOW. SO HAVE HOISTED A WIND CHILL WATCH
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TO GIVE EVERYONE A HEAD`S UP ON
ANOTHER COLD MONDAY MORNING. THE WC WATCH IS FOR NY COUNTIES
EXCEPT SULLIVAN CO AND FOR NRN PA COUNTIES IN ERN PA.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT ABOVE ZERO IN NRN NY AND BARELY REACHING 10
DEGREES IN NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER BRUTALLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS
THIS HISTORICALLY COLD FEBRUARY CONTINUES. MINS LIKELY WILL DROP
TO 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. THEN TUESDAY THERE IS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME MODERATION AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE PTRN WITH THE BROAD...STABLE...AND STRONG ERN US
TROF REMAINS IN PLACE. NW FLOW MAY RESULT IN SOME MSTLY LGT LE AT
TIMES OVER THE NRN CWA...OTRW CONDS SHD BE MAINLY COLD AND DRY.
SOME SLGT RELAXATION IN THE PTRN AS THE CNTR OF THE TROF DRFTS
WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND SW FLOW BRINGS SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. STILL...LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN BLO NRML
ON TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE PD. WEAK WV LATE FRI EARLY SAT MAY
BRING SOME LGT SNOW NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

GNRLY FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE FCST...ALTHOUGH HAVE ONCE AGAIN BUMPED
UP POPS A BIT IN THE PTNL LE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE STABLE LYR RESULTING IN MSTLY MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. FEW BREAKS IN THE CLDS AND IF HTG CAN GET
GOING...SCT TO VFR CONDS PSBL. TNGT...ANOTHER ARCTIC FNT PASSES
THRU THE AREA WITH A 2 OR 3 HR PD OF MVFR SNOW SHWRS. BRIEFLY LWR
VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL. BHD THE FNT...A RETURN VFR CONDS FOR A
TIME...BUT LAKE CLDS AND GNRLY LGT SNOW SHWRS WILL DVLP IN THE
CAA...ESP AT SYR AND RME. GUSTY WINDS RETURN IN STRONG CAA MON...SO
BLSN MAY BE AN ISSUE AT SOME STATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SNOW SHWRS.

MON NGT-TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGN IN SNOW SHWRS/LGT SNOW...ESP CNY.

WED NGT-THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1058 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION WILL TRACK
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES AND AT TIMES DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
11 AM UPDATE... JUST MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY AND TEMP GRIDS
ATTM...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

RECENT SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLDNS OVER
PTNS OF WRN/CNTRL NY AND NRN PA. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
THINNING OF THE CLDS THIS AFTN...WE THINK CLDS WILL STILL HAVE THE
UPPER HAND OVERALL...GIVEN THE STEEP THERMAL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z
KBUF SNDG...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT BLYR MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
BLO THIS FEATURE.

DESPITE THE CLDS...TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD COMPARED TO OUR
RECENT BITTER COLD STRETCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S-LWR 30S IN
MOST AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FLRYS/-SHSN EXPECTED ALG AND AHD
OF TNT`S ARCTIC FROPA WILL HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...OR
MORE LIKELY THIS EVE.

PREV DISC... THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WAS EXITING
NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
RIPPLES INTO NY AND PA ERLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN NO
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ANYWHERE IN CNTRL OR WRN NY OR NRN AND
WRN PA AND LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS I REALLY DON/T SEE ANY
POTENTIAL. SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ARND -7C AND
WITH UPLIFT IT WUD BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SUBSDC BEHIND THIS UPPER WAVE ANYWAY SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY AS
CAA BEGINS AND TRAPS MOISTURE UNDER A SHARP INVERSION ARND 900
MB. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS POISE TO PASS THRU THE REGION THIS
EVENING SO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALMOST SEASONABLE IN
TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE INVERSION RISES TO ABT 850 MB WHEN THE ARCTIC
PASSES BY WITH MINIMAL CAPE. THERE CUD BE SOME SNOW SQUALLS BUT
AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SNOW SQUALL EVENT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WARM IT GETS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THIS FAR OUT(WRF_NMM AND WRF_ARW) ARE
NOT SHOWING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT EITHER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE RAP AND HRRR CATCH ONTO SOMETHING WHEN THEY GET TO THIS
EVENINGS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS SOMETHING TO PASS ONTO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

AFTER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY...THE USUAL 290 DEGREE LES SETS UP
BUT IT LIKELY WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS
DOWNWIND...MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES AT BEST. BIG STORY WILL BE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON FAIRLY STRG NW WINDS. MINS MONDAY AM WILL BE
FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN NY STATE WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 BELOW ZERO AS IT STANDS NOW. SO HAVE HOISTED A WIND CHILL WATCH
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TO GIVE EVERYONE A HEAD`S UP ON
ANOTHER COLD MONDAY MORNING. THE WC WATCH IS FOR NY COUNTIES
EXCEPT SULLIVAN CO AND FOR NRN PA COUNTIES IN ERN PA.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT ABOVE ZERO IN NRN NY AND BARELY REACHING 10
DEGREES IN NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER BRUTALLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS
THIS HISTORICALLY COLD FEBRUARY CONTINUES. MINS LIKELY WILL DROP
TO 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. THEN TUESDAY THERE IS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME MODERATION AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE FRIGID AIR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT DUE
TO SHORT FETCH AND PLENTY OF ICE ON LAKE ONTARIO. IN GENERAL A
FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SYSTEM IN THE
MID ATLANTIC MAY BRUSH THE FA ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION,
INCLUDED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. THIS EVENING AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z, BRINGING MVFR SNOW SHOWERS.
AFTER 06Z, SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BUT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW BY MID MORNING AROUND 5-8
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SNOW SHWRS.

MON NGT-TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGN IN SNOW SHWRS/LGT SNOW...ESP CNY.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ038-039.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 643 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION WILL TRACK
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES AND AT TIMES DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WAS EXITING NE PA AND
SULLIVAN COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES INTO
NY AND PA ERLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ANYWHERE IN CNTRL OR WRN NY OR NRN AND WRN PA AND LOOKING
AT THE SOUNDINGS I REALLY DON/T SEE ANY POTENTIAL. SFC WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ARND -7C AND WITH UPLIFT IT WUD BE COLD
ENUF FOR SOME ICE CRYSAL GROWTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING SUBSDC BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE ANYWAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY AS
CAA BEGINS AND TRAPS MOISTURE UNDER A SHARP INVERSION ARND 900
MB. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS POISE TO PASS THRU THE REGION THIS
EVENING SO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALMOST SEASONABLE IN
TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE INVERSION RISES TO ABT 850 MB WHEN THE ARCTIC
PASSES BY WITH MINIMAL CAPE. THERE CUD BE SOME SNOW SQUALLS BUT
AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SNOW SQUALL EVENT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WARM IT GETS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THIS FAR OUT(WRF_NMM AND WRF_ARW) ARE
NOT SHOWING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT EITHER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE RAP AND HRRR CATCH ONTO SOMETHING WHEN THEY GET TO THIS
EVENINGS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS SOMETHING TO PASS ONTO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

AFTER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY...THE USUAL 290 DEGREE LES SETS UP
BUT IT LIKELY WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS
DOWNWIND...MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES AT BEST. BIG STORY WILL BE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON FAIRLY STRG NW WINDS. MINS MONDAY AM WILL BE
FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN NY STATE WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 BELOW ZERO AS IT STANDS NOW. SO HAVE HOISTED A WIND CHILL WATCH
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TO GIVE EVERYONE A HEAD`S UP ON
ANOTHER COLD MONDAY MORNING. THE WC WATCH IS FOR NY COUNTIES
EXCEPT SULLIVAN CO AND FOR NRN PA COUNTIES IN ERN PA.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT ABOVE ZERO IN NRN NY AND BARELY REACHING 10
DEGREES IN NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER BRUTALLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS
THIS HISTORICALLY COLD FEBRUARY CONTINUES. MINS LIKELY WILL DROP
TO 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. THEN TUESDAY THERE IS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME MODERATION AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE FRIGID AIR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT DUE
TO SHORT FETCH AND PLENTY OF ICE ON LAKE ONTARIO. IN GENERAL A
FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SYSTEM IN THE
MID ATLANTIC MAY BRUSH THE FA ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION,
INCLUDED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. THIS EVENING AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z, BRINGING MVFR SNOW SHOWERS.
AFTER 06Z, SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BUT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW BY MID MORNING AROUND 5-8
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SNOW SHWRS.

MON NGT-TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGN IN SNOW SHWRS/LGT SNOW...ESP CNY.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ038-039.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 337 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION WILL TRACK
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES AND AT TIMES DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WAS EXITING NE PA AND
SULLIVAN COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES INTO
NY AND PA ERLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ANYWHERE IN CNTRL OR WRN NY OR NRN AND WRN PA AND LOOKING
AT THE SOUNDINGS I REALLY DON/T SEE ANY POTENTIAL. SFC WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ARND -7C AND WITH UPLIFT IT WUD BE COLD
ENUF FOR SOME ICE CRYSAL GROWTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING SUBSDC BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE ANYWAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY AS
CAA BEGINS AND TRAPS MOISTURE UNDER A SHARP INVERSION ARND 900
MB. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS POISE TO PASS THRU THE REGION THIS
EVENING SO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALMOST SEASONABLE IN
TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE INVERSION RISES TO ABT 850 MB WHEN THE ARCTIC
PASSES BY WITH MINIMAL CAPE. THERE CUD BE SOME SNOW SQUALLS BUT
AT THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SNOW SQUALL EVENT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WARM IT GETS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THIS FAR OUT(WRF_NMM AND WRF_ARW) ARE
NOT SHOWING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT EITHER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THE RAP AND HRRR CATCH ONTO SOMETHING WHEN THEY GET TO THIS
EVENINGS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS SOMETHING TO PASS ONTO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

AFTER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY...THE USUAL 290 DEGREE LES SETS UP
BUT IT LIKELY WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS
DOWNWIND...MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES AT BEST. BIG STORY WILL BE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON FAIRLY STRG NW WINDS. MINS MONDAY AM WILL BE
FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN NY STATE WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND
30 BELOW ZERO AS IT STANDS NOW. SO HAVE HOISTED A WIND CHILL WATCH
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TO GIVE EVERYONE A HEAD`S UP ON
ANOTHER COLD MONDAY MORNING. THE WC WATCH IS FOR NY COUNTIES
EXCEPT SULLIVAN CO AND FOR NRN PA COUNTIES IN ERN PA.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT ABOVE ZERO IN NRN NY AND BARELY REACHING 10
DEGREES IN NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER BRUTALLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS
THIS HISTORICALLY COLD FEBRUARY CONTINUES. MINS LIKELY WILL DROP
TO 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. THEN TUESDAY THERE IS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME MODERATION AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE FRIGID AIR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT DUE
TO SHORT FETCH AND PLENTY OF ICE ON LAKE ONTARIO. IN GENERAL A
FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD PERIOD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A SYSTEM IN THE
MID ATLANTIC MAY BRUSH THE FA ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION,
INCLUDED CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KAVP WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOW MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KRME/KITH/KBGM, IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. BY MID MORNING SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS EVENING AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW BY MID MORNING AROUND 5-8
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SNOW SHWRS.

MON NGT-TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS PSBL AGN IN SNOW SHWRS/LGT SNOW...ESP CNY.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ038-039.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 100 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING CENTRAL NC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM SUNDAY...

THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS DISSIPATING AND EXITING THE COASTAL
PLAN ON THE HEELS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.  RADAR TRENDS WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...AND THEREAFTER THE HRRR
SUGGESTS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS
AN AREA OF SPOTTY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA...AND THE HRRR SHOWS THAT PRECIP MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 00Z.  THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK...SO ITS UNCLEAR HOW
LARGE OF AN AREA WILL BE AFFECTED.  WILL SHOW A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 22Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH GUIDANCE ALL
OVER THE PLACE.  THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE WEDGE FRONT IS HUNG UP BETWEEN THE US-1 AND I-
95 CORRIDORS.  WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAVE
TEMPS TO BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY HEATING.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT IT MAY
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO ERODE THE STRATUS THAT APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
2000FT THICK PER PIREPS AND RAP SOUNDINGS.  EXPECT HIGHS TO
ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE.  -BLS

TONIGHT: ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SPREAD/FILL NORTH INTO  THE
AREA BETWEEN 04 TO 12Z IN RESPONSE TO MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE ALONG
...WITH FORCING FURTHER AIDED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT VIA
TIGHTENING HORIZONTAL THERMAL GRADIENT/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE AS STRONG +1040 ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MID
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED WETTER
FOR TONIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE EC AND NAM INDICATING
AS MUCH AS A HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A SHARP CUT-OFF IN PRECIP SE-NW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST(ROXBORO/WINSTON SALEM). CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIP...BUT AT THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
LIMITED WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP
WITH COLD AIR TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH THE PRECIP/MOISTURE RARELY SUPPORTS
MUCH MORE THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...

MAIN FRONTAL ZONE IS OFFSHORE AND STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR WITH
DEEPER SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE EDGING SOUTH IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION SPILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF ANAFRONTAL PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH 18Z-ISH...INDICATING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A MIX OR ALL
SNOW PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE DRY COLD
AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP SOUTH RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS
IN CHANGEOVER ZONE...SO NO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS IT EXITS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL SHOW LITTLE INCLINATION TO CLIMB BEYOND THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND TOP OUT IN THE VERY LOW 40S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS OUR NEXT ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MAKES THE USUAL RIGHT TURN DOWN THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING BY
MORNING AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM 15 TO 20 ACROSS THE NORTH...AND IN THE
LOWER 20S SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...AS WE ARE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN
THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD UPPER TROFFING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER 15 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL DAY IS ON TAP
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 40. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
LITTLE BUMP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

WE CATCH A LITTLE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY REINFORCING
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF AS WE DIG FURTHER INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MYRIAD OF FEATURES TO CONSIDER FROM
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
NOTED YESTERDAY WILL INDUCE ANOTHER WAVE ON THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY WRAPPING SOME
RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT THE WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S...WITH COLD AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND LIMITING HIGHS TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DETAILS FOR LATE WEEK REMAIN
HIGHLY SUSPECT...BUT AT THIS POINT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WOULD BE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN FLOW LIFTS OUT OF THE FILLING EASTERN
TROF AND HAS POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERLY SUPPRESSED
FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR NOW IN THE
TRIAD AT KRWI/KFAY.  THE LAST REMAINING AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
SCOUR IN THE NEXT COUPLES OF HOURS AND A PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED
AT KRDU AFTER 20Z. A COLD CURRENTLY CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME.  MEANWHILE...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
STRENGTHENING AND MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BRING LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN BACK ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NC.  THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 00Z AND TO
IFR AFTER 06Z AS THE RAIN SPREADS IN.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATE
WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
MAINLY TO TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHERN NC

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1035 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING CENTRAL NC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM SUNDAY...

THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS DISSIPATING AND EXITING THE COASTAL
PLAN ON THE HEELS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.  RADAR TRENDS WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...AND THEREAFTER THE HRRR
SUGGESTS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS
AN AREA OF SPOTTY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA...AND THE HRRR SHOWS THAT PRECIP MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 00Z.  THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK...SO ITS UNCLEAR HOW
LARGE OF AN AREA WILL BE AFFECTED.  WILL SHOW A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 22Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH GUIDANCE ALL
OVER THE PLACE.  THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE WEDGE FRONT IS HUNG UP BETWEEN THE US-1 AND I-
95 CORRIDORS.  WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAVE
TEMPS TO BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY HEATING.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT IT MAY
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO ERODE THE STRATUS THAT APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
2000FT THICK PER PIREPS AND RAP SOUNDINGS.  EXPECT HIGHS TO
ULTIMATELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE.  -BLS

TONIGHT: ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SPREAD/FILL NORTH INTO  THE
AREA BETWEEN 04 TO 12Z IN RESPONSE TO MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE ALONG
...WITH FORCING FURTHER AIDED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT VIA
TIGHTENING HORIZONTAL THERMAL GRADIENT/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE AS STRONG +1040 ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MID
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED WETTER
FOR TONIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY THE EC AND NAM INDICATING
AS MUCH AS A HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A SHARP CUT-OFF IN PRECIP SE-NW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST(ROXBORO/WINSTON SALEM). CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIP...BUT AT THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
LIMITED WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP
WITH COLD AIR TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH THE PRECIP/MOISTURE RARELY SUPPORTS
MUCH MORE THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...

MAIN FRONTAL ZONE IS OFFSHORE AND STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR WITH
DEEPER SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE EDGING SOUTH IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION SPILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF ANAFRONTAL PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH 18Z-ISH...INDICATING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A MIX OR ALL
SNOW PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE DRY COLD
AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP SOUTH RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS
IN CHANGEOVER ZONE...SO NO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS IT EXITS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL SHOW LITTLE INCLINATION TO CLIMB BEYOND THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND TOP OUT IN THE VERY LOW 40S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS OUR NEXT ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MAKES THE USUAL RIGHT TURN DOWN THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING BY
MORNING AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM 15 TO 20 ACROSS THE NORTH...AND IN THE
LOWER 20S SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...AS WE ARE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN
THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD UPPER TROFFING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER 15 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL DAY IS ON TAP
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 40. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
LITTLE BUMP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

WE CATCH A LITTLE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY REINFORCING
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF AS WE DIG FURTHER INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MYRIAD OF FEATURES TO CONSIDER FROM
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
NOTED YESTERDAY WILL INDUCE ANOTHER WAVE ON THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY WRAPPING SOME
RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT THE WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S...WITH COLD AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND LIMITING HIGHS TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DETAILS FOR LATE WEEK REMAIN
HIGHLY SUSPECT...BUT AT THIS POINT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WOULD BE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN FLOW LIFTS OUT OF THE FILLING EASTERN
TROF AND HAS POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERLY SUPPRESSED
FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LIFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF DENSE FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD IMPROVE AS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT EASTERN TERMINALS (KRWI AND KFAY)AOA 18Z. CEILINGS COULD PROVE
TO BE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE RAIN BAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND HAVE SPREAD THIS TREND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST WE COULD SEE
CEILINGS LIFT/SCATTER OUT TO VFR CEILINGS BY THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...OWING TO THE DRIER
WEST-SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 18
TO 03Z MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL CAST RAIN
BACK BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS...LOWEST AT KFAY.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:  LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF MIXTURE OR CHANGEOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON MONDAY BEFORE THE PRECIP EXITS THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE SE US BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 312 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CIRCULATE MILD AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TODAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN LATE MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COLD
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
BRUNSWICK INTO WESTERN PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR 23 AND 00 UTC RUN
BOTH ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF THE COAST AFTER 05
UTC. AS THIS MOVES OUT THE THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH MID 40S INLAND AND NEAR 50
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. STARTING TO LOOK
MORE AND MORE LIKE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME WHERE SLEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC COAST MON AFTERNOON BUT
THE ISSUE IS FORCING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT POST
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIST UPWARD MOTION AND THERE IS VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
SATURATION THINK THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP ALONG
THE COAST BUT LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AFTER 18Z IS QUITE
LOW SO PLAN TO TREND DOWN MON AFTERNOON POP.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MON NIGHT WEAKENS AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ON TUE. FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
BUT TUE NIGHT IT WILL TRY AND LIFT BACK NORTH. ALTHOUGH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA TUE THE LACK OF FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE REGION DRY. NOT QUITE READY TO PULL POP FROM
THE TUE FORECAST BUT THINK ONLY SLGT CHC IS WARRANTED ALONG THE
COAST WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING DRY. AS THE FRONT TRIES TO RETURN
NORTH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD BACK OVER THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING DRIER AND THERE IS A LACK OF OF
FORCING ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDWEEK WILL LIFT
THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RIDE UP IT TO THE COAST WED INTO
THU REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE. THE FATE OF THE WED/THU
FORECAST RIDES ON THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES AND WILL DETERMINE
IF ANY PRECIP FALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND IF IT FALLS WHETHER IT WILL
BE LIQUID OR FROZEN. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER...KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY AND THE LOW FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE 12Z
SAT RUN...CAUSING MORE MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION. THIS STRENGTHENS THE
SURFACE INFLECTION...PULLING THE LOW/BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS IS NOT VAST BUT THE
IMPLICATIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE SIGNIFICANT. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM INHERITED FORECAST BUT NOTE THAT
THERE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU
MORNING...MAINLY SLEET OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.

END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE QUITE INTERESTING. AS THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. FRI MAY
END UP DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH HELPS SPREAD COOL/DRY AIR DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS COASTAL
TROUGH FIRST DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
TIME FRI NIGHT AND SAT WHERE LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP LOOKS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS
THIS PAST EVNING...THAT WERE PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND WILL BRING MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR
IN AS A TEMPO GROUP AFTER 06Z. FEELING IS THAT CEILING/VSBY COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THESE
TERMINALS. THE INLAND COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH MOISTURE
FROM EVENING RAIN AND SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL MENTION
MVFR THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO EARLIER TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS MODEL BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS
THE INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUES AND
BUOYS ARE SHOWING WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 25
KNOTS AT FRYING PAN. SEAS AT FRYING PAN ARE SHOWING 8 FEET WITH
THE HARBOR BUOY AT THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER NOW AT 5.5
FEET. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH 7 AM FOR ENTIRE WATERS AND
ONLY FOR WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET BY 10 AM. ALSO WITH
THE WARMER AIR MOIST AIR WE CAN EXPECT SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HEADLINES ALL BUT CERTAIN MON AND MON NIGHT AS
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN AND PINCHES THE GRADIENT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
APPROACH 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT IN SOME AREAS. WINDS START
DECREASING TUE AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WINDS LATE TUE CONTINUE TUE NIGHT AS THE
WEAK HIGH EXITS NORTHEAST AND WINDS BACK TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. SEAS
FALL TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER TUE AND 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME
NORTH-NORTHEAST THU. ILL DEFINED GRADIENT WED WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER
10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
BOUNDARY STALLED SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT
WED NIGHT AND THU...INCREASING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WED NIGHT AND A
SOLID 20 KT THU. GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST UNDER SCA HEADLINE THRESHOLDS SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD OVER 6 FT DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD SO
SCA MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/MAC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1231 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CIRCULATE MILD AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MO MONDAY...AS GULF  MOISTURE IS
LIFTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST. COLD
AIR WILL RETURN LATE MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
BRUNSWICK INTO WESTERN PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR 23 AND 00 UTC RUN
BOTH ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF THE COAST AFTER 05
UTC. AS THIS MOVES OUT THE THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH MID 40S INLAND AND NEAR 50
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ARE PROSPECTS OF A DECENT SOAKER OF A RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES LATE ON MONDAY.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP TO PLAY A NOTABLE ROLE IN ELEVATING DEEP COLUMN
MOISTURE 18Z SUN-00Z TUE...WITH STORM TOTAL CALCULATIONS PROGGING
ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC. THE BULK OF THIS
APT TO FALL AS 6Z-18Z MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC OMEGA INCREASES.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF ARCTIC BIRTH
BARGES IN...WITH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES NARROW IN THE BATTLE
WITH DAYTIME WARMING. VERY COLD AIR LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AND
NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF EGRESSING MOISTURE...COULD OPEN A WINDOW
OF BRIEF SNOW FLURRIES. DEEP COLD CONVECTION UNLIKELY SINCE DRY
AIR ENCROACHMENT ABOVE 850 MB WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.

MILDEST PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 60S WIDESPREAD AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE BEACHES. COLDEST PERIOD EARLY TUES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS
INTO THE CAROLINAS...MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY 24-31 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE
WEEK.

LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE PAST
MONTH WILL REMAIN...BUT IN A LESS AMPLIFIED SETUP. THE TROUGH WILL
BROADEN SUCH THAT IT EXTENDS WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND WHILE THIS
WILL DO LITTLE TO REMEDY THE COLD...IT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...AND ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT IS WHERE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND WEAK LOW PRESSURES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST A SCHC OF
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SE ZONES...THROUGH THE WEEK. TIMING OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS IS DIFFICULT...SO WILL
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED POP...AND KEEP A SCHC OF PRECIP
ALONG THE COAST/SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. LOCAL TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY
DOES PRODUCE PERIODS OF R/S OR R/IP/ZR...PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING...AND TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING
EACH AFTN SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ONLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR NOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NEED TO MENTION THAT THERE VERY WELL COULD BE
PERIODS OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIP...ALMOST ANY DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPS TUE-FRI WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD...AVERAGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A STRONG
SURFACE WEDGE RE-BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN AND CLOSE OFF ON SATURDAY...BUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THE LOW IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. WITH THE STRONG COLD WEDGE
IN PLACE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A MIXED P-TYPE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK WARMUP SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
RANGE...BUT THIS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE REGARDLESS OF
THE STRICT PATTERN EVOLUTION. WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND CHC POP
WARRANTED...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
THE ZR CREATED FROM TOP-DOWN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL A
LOT CAN CHANGE...BUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD GET MESSY
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS
THIS PAST EVNING...THAT WERE PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND WILL BRING MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR
IN AS A TEMPO GROUP AFTER 06Z. FEELING IS THAT CEILING/VSBY COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THESE
TERMINALS. THE INLAND COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH MOISTURE
FROM EVENING RAIN AND SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL MENTION
MVFR THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO EARLIER TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS MODEL BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS
THE INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TO THE COAST BY
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUES AND
BUOYS ARE SHOWING WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 25
KNOTS AT FRYING PAN. SEAS AT FRYING PAN ARE SHOWING 8 FEET WITH
THE HARBOR BUOY AT THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER NOW AT 5.5
FEET. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH 7 AM FOR ENTIRE WATERS AND
ONLY FOR WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET BY 10 AM. ALSO WITH
THE WARMER AIR MOIST AIR WE CAN EXPECT SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SUNDAY AS
SEA HEIGHTS RECOVER FROM THE PRESENT SE WAVE-BUILDING FETCH. AN
ADVISORY WILL AGAIN BE NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY AS NORTH
WINDS RIP ACROSS THE WATERS...DUE TO AN ARCTIC HIGH TAKEOVER.
A WAVE DIRECTION TRANSITION TO BISECT THIS TIME PERIOD AS S WAVE
ENERGY TURNS TO N AND NE MONDAY AND BUILDS WAVE-HEIGHTS AT TO
ABOVE ADVISORY RANGE IN TANDEM WITH ADVISORY WINDS TO BOOT. NO
TSTMS EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG WILL PLAGUE THE WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD WILL BE BOOK-ENDED BY GUSTY N/NE
WINDS BOTH EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY...AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS NEAR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING WELL OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS
DURING THESE NE SURGES WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS EASE AND
BACK TO THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES TOWARDS THE WATERS FROM THE NW...BEFORE AGAIN
INCREASING LATE THURSDAY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT
EARLY TUESDAY ON THE GUSTY NE WINDS...BEFORE EASING LATE TO 2-3 FT
AND REMAINING AT THESE AMPLITUDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE
WINDS RISE ON THURSDAY...SEAS BUILD AGAIN QUICKLY...AND AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MAC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THE COLD FROPA GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE.
THIS LEAVES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF (UP TO AN HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS/LOW VSBY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BEFORE THE COLD FROPA...MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 704 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NO STRONG SYSTEMS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...

A TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FIRST OFF LOW TEMPS. THERE IS
A CONCERN THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED ON NAM WILL CUT OFF
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG AND S OF I64 AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL TEND TO NIX COOLING ON THE RIDGES. WILL HOLD
WITH PREVIOUS LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...TRIED TO HIT A FEW MORE COLD SPOTS IN THE N LOWLANDS
WITH LOWER NEGATIVE NUMBERS.

AS FOR TOMORROW...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE TREND NW IN THE PRECIP WITH
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF EXTENDING WELL N OF SURFACE LOW. THIS
INVERTED TROF AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL WAVE
SUPPORTS SNOW INTO SW VA AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF SE WV TUESDAY
MORNING. 18Z NAM/18Z GFS/RECENT RUC AND HRRR SUPPORT BUMPING POPS
UP INTO LIKELY AND INSERT UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR OUR SW
VA COUNTIES. COULD SEE A SKIFF ON OUR E SLOPES OF SE WV AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LAST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS LIFTING AND THINNING OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AT 19Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED A FEW DEGREES IN THE
LOWLANDS WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE...SOME CIRRUS
HEADING TOWARD OUR KY/VA/WV TRI STATE.

FIGURING ON PATCHES OF MID DECK ESPECIALLY 06Z TO 12Z ACROSS SRN WV
INTO SW VA MOSTLY S OF HTS-CRW.  ALSO WARMING WILL BE OCCURRING AT
THE 925 TO 850 MB LEVEL OVERNIGHT.  SO IN COMPARISON TO LAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING THIS COLD SNAP DOES NOT MEASURING UP.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS AND LESS WIND IN THE
ELKINS VICINITY THIS TIME AROUND...SO WILL GO COLDER
THERE...COMPARED TO LAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.  HAVE SOME
MINIMUMS OF MINUS 15 TO MINUS 18 IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES CLOSER TO ZERO.  ALSO LOWERED NORTH CENTRAL
MINIMUM A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE CLEARER SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS.  ANOTHER COLD SPOT SHOULD BE INTERIOR SE OHIO...STILL MINUS 5
TO MINUS 10.  CAN NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY THERE THOUGH...SINCE 925
MB FLOW INCREASING 09Z TO 12Z. INCREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY FROM BKW ON SW INTO VA OVERNIGHT TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT THOSE
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS RETURNING FROM THE WEST...AND MAYBE THE WIND
STIRS FROM THE SE OVER THOSE RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU 06Z TO
12Z.  SO OVERALL...TIGHTENED UP THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. BUT THERE WILL STILL SOME LOCAL EFFECTS TOO
BETWEEN HILLTOPS AND HOLLOWS.

WILL KEEP MEASURABLE POPS AOB 20 PCT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FIGURED...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO OUR
PREVIOUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH
THE UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL LOWER POPS SOME FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THEN MOVES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT UNDER THE DISTURBANCE. WILL INCLUDE SOME
SMALL POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF A BIT DIFFERENT ON
TIMING...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER BRINGING THE HIGH IN THUS TRYING
TO LINGER PRECIP A LITTLE LONGER. WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SPEED
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ALSO CARRIES OVER INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM...A
LOW RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS A GOOD 24
HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z GFS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED THINGS DOWN. WITH SUCH LARGE
DISCREPANCY WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC ON...ALTHOUGH WENT A BIT SLOWER
BRINGING INITIAL PRECIPITATION IN BASED ON 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SUNDAY...WITH COLD FRONT
CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHES OF MID DECK AOA 10 THSD FT 06Z TO 18Z...WITH MVFR DECK
DEVELOPING IN SW VA AND SE WV TOWARD MORNING. SOME -SN IS EXPECTED
IN SW VA...CREEPING UP TO PERHAPS KBKW. WILL PUT SOME 5SM -SN IN
TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AT THIS DISTANCE. SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO CRW AND EKN FOR A TIME AS WELL.

SOME SMOKE FROM WOOD BURNING MAY BE SEEN UNDER NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AROUND COMMUNITIES IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 14Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS AT KBKW MAY VARY TUESDAY
MORNING...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...RPY/MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1138 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIP WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...A THIRD ROUND
OF SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN SITES TOMORROW MORNING. ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING SO WILL EXTEND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 21Z. WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRINGIN
NW PARTS OF AREA WILL ALSO CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN
ADVISORY.

AREA OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS AREA BUT THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FA HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE STILL MAY
BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY CONTINUING
TO CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONT THIS AFTN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO CAUSE COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
DROPPING TO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
ALSO HAVE WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO DEGREES. UPDATES OUT SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. AREAS OF SNOW
ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH MORE
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA FROM SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ROUND NUMBER 1 IS UNDERWAY CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... BUT NOT WITHOUT COMPLICATIONS. FIRST IS THE RELATIVELY
SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BRINGING A LATER TRANSITION TO
SNOW... AND SECOND IS THE SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDING THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITH ONE BAND IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR DODGE CITY AND
SECOND FROM DUMAS TEXAS TO WATONGA TO GUTHRIE. WITH THE SOUTHERN
BAND PERSISTING AND MOVING EAST... THIS WARRANTS EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE TRENDS
AND HRRR SUGGEST AN INCH OF SNOW OR SO MAY FALL. ALTHOUGH THE
SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDS HAVE FORMED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARNING IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WILL NOT DOWNGRADE NOW AS SOME DECENT
SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THE BANDS EVOLVE
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING
MAY BE NEAR THE ARNETT-TALOGA-WATONGA LINE.

ROUND NUMBER 2 WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS RIGHT NOW AND RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO DETECT
SOME DEVELOPING ECHOES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH...
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH. AS WAVE NUMBER 2 EXITS TONIGHT... WAVE NUMBER 3
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT AS USUAL THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF ANY SMALL SCALE
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP.

RAIN/SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH THESE
PRECIPITATION EVENTS... BUT SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN THE
SOUTH TODAY... THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER TO PARTIALLY
MELT THE SNOW AS IT FALLS BEFORE REFREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER
BELOW. BUT THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS THAT WE MAY LOSE MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGIONS ALOFT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING SUPERCOOLED WATER FREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE SOUTH TODAY... DEPTH OF FORECAST LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
INDICATES THAT SLEET IS MORE LIKELY.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THEN MORE COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN
SHIFT... THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THE
FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  16  26  18 /  50  40  60  10
HOBART OK         33  16  23  16 /  50  50  60  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  20  25  19 / 100  60  70  10
GAGE OK           24  11  23  14 /  90  60  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  13  26  16 / 100  20  30  20
DURANT OK         39  21  28  21 / 100  60  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ021>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

99/99/14



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

 1040 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING SO WILL EXTEND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 21Z. WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRINGIN
NW PARTS OF AREA WILL ALSO CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN
ADVISORY.

AREA OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS AREA BUT THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FA HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE STILL MAY
BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY CONTINUING
TO CAUSE FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONT THIS AFTN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO CAUSE COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
DROPPING TO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
ALSO HAVE WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO DEGREES. UPDATES OUT SOON.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. AREAS OF SNOW
ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH MORE
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA FROM SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ROUND NUMBER 1 IS UNDERWAY CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... BUT NOT WITHOUT COMPLICATIONS. FIRST IS THE RELATIVELY
SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BRINGING A LATER TRANSITION TO
SNOW... AND SECOND IS THE SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDING THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITH ONE BAND IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR DODGE CITY AND
SECOND FROM DUMAS TEXAS TO WATONGA TO GUTHRIE. WITH THE SOUTHERN
BAND PERSISTING AND MOVING EAST... THIS WARRANTS EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE TRENDS
AND HRRR SUGGEST AN INCH OF SNOW OR SO MAY FALL. ALTHOUGH THE
SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDS HAVE FORMED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARNING IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WILL NOT DOWNGRADE NOW AS SOME DECENT
SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THE BANDS EVOLVE
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING
MAY BE NEAR THE ARNETT-TALOGA-WATONGA LINE.

ROUND NUMBER 2 WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS RIGHT NOW AND RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO DETECT
SOME DEVELOPING ECHOES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH...
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH. AS WAVE NUMBER 2 EXITS TONIGHT... WAVE NUMBER 3
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT AS USUAL THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF ANY SMALL SCALE
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP.

RAIN/SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH THESE
PRECIPITATION EVENTS... BUT SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN THE
SOUTH TODAY... THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER TO PARTIALLY
MELT THE SNOW AS IT FALLS BEFORE REFREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER
BELOW. BUT THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS THAT WE MAY LOSE MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGIONS ALOFT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING SUPERCOOLED WATER FREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE SOUTH TODAY... DEPTH OF FORECAST LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
INDICATES THAT SLEET IS MORE LIKELY.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THEN MORE COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN
SHIFT... THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THE
FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  16  26  18 /  50  40  60  10
HOBART OK         33  16  23  16 /  50  50  60  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  20  25  19 / 100  60  70  10
GAGE OK           24  11  23  14 /  90  60  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  13  26  16 / 100  20  30  20
DURANT OK         39  21  28  21 / 100  60  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ021>048-
     050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/09




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

 549 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND IFR-MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. AREAS OF SNOW
ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH MORE
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA FROM SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ROUND NUMBER 1 IS UNDERWAY CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... BUT NOT WITHOUT COMPLICATIONS. FIRST IS THE RELATIVELY
SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BRINGING A LATER TRANSITION TO
SNOW... AND SECOND IS THE SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDING THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITH ONE BAND IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR DODGE CITY AND
SECOND FROM DUMAS TEXAS TO WATONGA TO GUTHRIE. WITH THE SOUTHERN
BAND PERSISTING AND MOVING EAST... THIS WARRANTS EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE TRENDS
AND HRRR SUGGEST AN INCH OF SNOW OR SO MAY FALL. ALTHOUGH THE
SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDS HAVE FORMED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARNING IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WILL NOT DOWNGRADE NOW AS SOME DECENT
SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THE BANDS EVOLVE
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING
MAY BE NEAR THE ARNETT-TALOGA-WATONGA LINE.

ROUND NUMBER 2 WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS RIGHT NOW AND RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO DETECT
SOME DEVELOPING ECHOES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH...
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH. AS WAVE NUMBER 2 EXITS TONIGHT... WAVE NUMBER 3
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT AS USUAL THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF ANY SMALL SCALE
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP.

RAIN/SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH THESE
PRECIPITATION EVENTS... BUT SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN THE
SOUTH TODAY... THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER TO PARTIALLY
MELT THE SNOW AS IT FALLS BEFORE REFREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER
BELOW. BUT THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS THAT WE MAY LOSE MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGIONS ALOFT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING SUPERCOOLED WATER FREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE SOUTH TODAY... DEPTH OF FORECAST LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
INDICATES THAT SLEET IS MORE LIKELY.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THEN MORE COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN
SHIFT... THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THE
FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  17  26  18 /  50  40  60  10
HOBART OK         33  17  23  16 /  50  50  60  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  21  25  19 /  70  60  70  10
GAGE OK           24  12  23  14 /  90  60  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  14  26  16 /  80  20  30  20
DURANT OK         39  22  28  21 / 100  60  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ005-006-011-
     014>017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004-009-010.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ021>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 442 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ROUND NUMBER 1 IS UNDERWAY CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... BUT NOT WITHOUT COMPLICATIONS. FIRST IS THE RELATIVELY
SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BRINGING A LATER TRANSITION TO
SNOW... AND SECOND IS THE SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDING THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITH ONE BAND IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR DODGE CITY AND
SECOND FROM DUMAS TEXAS TO WATONGA TO GUTHRIE. WITH THE SOUTHERN
BAND PERSISTING AND MOVING EAST... THIS WARRANTS EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE TRENDS
AND HRRR SUGGEST AN INCH OF SNOW OR SO MAY FALL. ALTHOUGH THE
SPLIT MESOSCALE BANDS HAVE FORMED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WARNING IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WILL NOT DOWNGRADE NOW AS SOME DECENT
SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THE BANDS EVOLVE
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING
MAY BE NEAR THE ARNETT-TALOGA-WATONGA LINE.

ROUND NUMBER 2 WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS RIGHT NOW AND RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO DETECT
SOME DEVELOPING ECHOES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH...
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH. AS WAVE NUMBER 2 EXITS TONIGHT... WAVE NUMBER 3
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT AS USUAL THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF ANY SMALL SCALE
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP.

RAIN/SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH THESE
PRECIPITATION EVENTS... BUT SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN THE
SOUTH TODAY... THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER TO PARTIALLY
MELT THE SNOW AS IT FALLS BEFORE REFREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER
BELOW. BUT THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS THAT WE MAY LOSE MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGIONS ALOFT AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING SUPERCOOLED WATER FREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE SOUTH TODAY... DEPTH OF FORECAST LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
INDICATES THAT SLEET IS MORE LIKELY.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THEN MORE COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN
SHIFT... THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THE
FINER DETAILS WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  17  26  18 /  50  40  60  10
HOBART OK         33  17  23  16 /  50  50  60  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  21  25  19 /  70  60  70  10
GAGE OK           24  12  23  14 /  90  60  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  14  26  16 /  80  20  30  20
DURANT OK         39  22  28  21 / 100  60  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ005-006-011-
     014>017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004-009-010.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ021>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 348 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
REMAINED STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO LOCATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. EXPECT THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SURGE TO
THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. WENT CLOSE TO THE SREF/HRRR/3KM TECH WRF
AND ECMWF WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...PUSING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 04-06Z. HRRR SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION FORMING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. BUT EXPECT AIR MASS TO
BE CAPPED AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE 285-300K
LAYER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL SHOW POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT
FOR TONIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DIURNAL TREND MAY BE SLOWLY
DOWNWARD MOST OF THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS. LOW TEMPS WILL REACH
DOWN INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS A LITTLE EARLIER THIS EVENING. PUT
THE START TIME FOR THE SCA FOR TONIGHT AT 04Z. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE GULF WATERS.
EXTENDED SCA FOR THE BAYS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CHC
OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND COMMENCES. TEMPS ON TUE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH A FEW 50S ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OUT WEST. NEXT REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS OCCURING
ON WED...HOWEVER...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE
60S BOTH WED-THU. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 40S-50S FOR FRIDAY BENEITH OVC SKIES. COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW OVERRIDES THE COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE COOL AIR WONT LAST LONG AS A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE DESERT SW DRAWING A WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH THE
AREA SAT. TEMPS ON SAT WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT
WITH 70S EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    47  48  38  50  43  /  50  70  40  20  30
VICTORIA          43  44  35  46  38  /  50  70  40  20  40
LAREDO            46  46  39  54  44  /  50  50  20  10  10
ALICE             45  46  37  50  41  /  50  70  40  20  30
ROCKPORT          47  50  39  50  43  /  50  70  40  30  40
COTULLA           42  43  35  50  40  /  50  50  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        48  48  37  50  43  /  50  70  40  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       49  51  39  51  45  /  50  70  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

 512 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRAND WE WILL SEE COLDER AIR PUSH
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WE WILL SEE STRONG GUSTY EAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF AREA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
MONDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. ON TUESDAY
WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND THEN WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF WEATHER TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING SO LET`S GET STARTED.
CURRENTLY A DECENT COLD FRONT WAS MAKING IT`S WAY THROUGH THE
EAST PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THE SAME
TIME A PRETTY STRONG WEST FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WEST FLOW AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL DO BATTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON...TO THE RIO GRANDE BY THE
AFTERNOON AND MAYBE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EVENING. OUR
SHORT TERM MODELS STILL HAVE SOME BIG DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW MUCH
COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE COLD
AIR TO THE EAST WHILE THE NAM BRINGS A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR
WELL INTO HUDSPETH...EL PASO AND OTERO COUNTIES. AS THE WEST FLOW
ALOFT TRIES TO HOLD THE COLD FRONT BACK IT WILL RIDE UP AND OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP CREATE SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW TOTALS RANGE
GREATLY IN MODELS FROM ALMOST 10 INCHES IN THE HRRR TO LESS THAN
AN INCH IN THE NAM. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE I
WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LOWER TOTALS. PROBABLY SOMETHING
IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 5 INCHES SHOULD COVER IT. JUST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE OTHER
PRECIPITATION QUESTION IS...WILL HUDSPETH COUNTY GET SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. AGAIN GOING WITH THE DRIER THEME I THINK WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT IN EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY. IF MORE COLD AIR MOVES IN EARLIER IN THE EVENING WE
COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED ICING WHICH IS SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR. FINALLY AS THE EAST PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN
WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF AREA
MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. I`VE GONE AHEAD AN ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LAS CRUCES AND THE WEST SIDE OF EL PASO...LOCATIONS
THAT GET HIT PRETTY HARD ON A EAST PUSH LIKE THIS.

MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE AS WELL AS THE MODELS
STILL DON`T AGREE ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL LINGER EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. WEST OF THE RIVER WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL...BUT EAST OF THE RIVER WE WILL SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THE NAM IS
GOING 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE GFS IS GOING AROUND
4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I`VE GONE
BETWEEN THOSE FORECASTS BUT LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS.

ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DASH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVING THIS SYSTEM LESS AND LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. I`VE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST BUT I`M NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION. THE
SYSTEM WILL DRAG SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. SO HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THEN ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR TRY AND PUSH IN FROM THE EAST...BUT
AGAIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE COOLER AIR TO
OUR EAST. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE EXTENDED MODELS HAD A PRETTY STRONG
SHORT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENT RUNS OF ALL THE
MODELS HAVE WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT THOSE MAY HAVE TO BE
PULLED IF THE MODELS STICK TO THE CURRENT SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z
WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WE
WILL SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE WILL SEE WEST WINDS 23010KT BUT
AROUND 00Z WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT TRY AND PUSH INTO THE REGION
SO THAT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE WINDS
COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND BE RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN WE WILL
SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOP IN HUDSPETH COUNTY WHILE IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN HUDSPETH COUNTY COULD
APPROACH IFR CONDITIONS WHILE PLACES FURTHER WEST LIKE KELP AND
KLRU COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS. FURTHER WEST FOR PLACES LIKE
KDMN AND KTCS WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF WEATHER TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. THE FRONT WILL SWING WINDS STRONGLY AROUND TO THE EAST FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
IN THE LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIVER AND SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. AFTER MONDAY WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING US A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND A RETURN OF SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. MIN RH`S WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL APPROACH
CRITICAL LEVELS BY THE TUESDAY. WE WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK WE WILL BE JUST A
LITTLE OFF ON BOTH THE WINDS AND RH`S. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WE
WILL MIN RH`S STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  35  59  37  63 /  10  30  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           69  30  50  31  62 /  20  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  34  59  34  59 /  10  30  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  39  54  35  57 /  20  30  20   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              47  31  36  27  37 /  60  70  60   0  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  36  57  37  57 /  10  30  20   0  20
SILVER CITY             61  36  58  34  51 /  20  30  20   0  20
DEMING                  69  38  62  33  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               70  41  63  35  57 /  10  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  37  59  39  62 /  10  30  10   0   0
DELL CITY               63  31  48  27  60 /  20  40  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71  33  59  36  67 /  20  30  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  29  50  33  57 /  20  30  10   0   0
FABENS                  70  35  59  36  64 /  20  30  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  35  59  36  61 /  10  30  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  35  57  35  59 /  10  30  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           67  33  59  29  58 /  10  30  10   0   0
HATCH                   69  36  62  33  60 /  10  30  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                71  38  63  38  60 /  10  20  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  33  55  35  59 /  20  30  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 48  23  40  29  46 /  70  70  60   0  20
MESCALERO               53  32  43  28  45 /  50  70  60   0  20
TIMBERON                52  31  43  30  46 /  70  60  40   0  20
WINSTON                 60  32  55  33  50 /  20  40  20   0  20
HILLSBORO               64  33  59  34  54 /  10  30  10   0  20
SPACEPORT               66  35  60  32  58 /  10  30  20   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            59  39  56  33  49 /  20  30  20   0  20
HURLEY                  63  35  59  33  53 /  10  30  10   0  10
CLIFF                   66  40  63  33  56 /  10  20  10   0  20
MULE CREEK              62  41  61  27  52 /  10  20  10   0  20
FAYWOOD                 63  34  59  35  53 /  10  30  10   0  10
ANIMAS                  70  42  66  36  60 /  10  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 71  40  65  33  61 /  10  20  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          69  41  66  36  64 /  10  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              65  43  64  37  59 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MST MONDAY FOR
     NMZ411.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST
     MONDAY FOR NMZ414>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM MST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ418.

&&

$$

BRICE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1157 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...SWELLS ARE STILL RUNNING VERY HIGH OVER THE GULF
WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY. IF SWELLS REMAIN HIGH (7 TO 8 FEET) WITH
PERIODS 8 TO 9 SECONDS...WILL HAVE TO EXTEND THE RISK THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

AVIATION...STRATUS/FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VCT AND CRP
TERMINALS. THIS WILL SPREAD TO ALI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THESE THREE SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FOR LRD AROUND
MORNING. NOT A BIG IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH ALI/CRP/VCT REMAINING
MVFR WITH STRATUS. HAVE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 03-04Z
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT AND LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCE INTO TAFS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF TONIGHT/S STRATUS ACROSS
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA BY SEVERAL HOURS. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP
AND HRRR INDICATE THAT A LLJ OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT 925 SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY INCREASING
NEARLY AREAWIDE AT THAT TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS LAND AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST
WERE MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY DEWPOINTS. AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE MAY BE
SENT LATE THIS EVENING REGARDING RIP CURRENT RISK. FOR NOW...HAVE
HIGH RIP CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  76  47  51  39  /  10  20  50  60  40
VICTORIA          64  72  42  44  35  /  10  40  50  60  40
LAREDO            64  82  48  49  40  /  10  10  50  60  30
ALICE             64  81  46  50  38  /  10  20  50  60  40
ROCKPORT          63  73  47  50  40  /  10  20  50  60  40
COTULLA           60  73  43  45  38  /  10  30  50  60  30
KINGSVILLE        64  79  48  52  39  /  10  10  50  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       64  73  49  52  41  /  10  20  50  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1101 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO
MVFR AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS AND AUS WILL BE THERE SOON. THEY
WILL DROP TO IFR EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. DRT WILL DROP TO MVFR BY
EARLY MORNING AND IFR BY LATE MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE MORNING IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND THIS WILL LOWER CIGS TO
LIFR. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END LATE AFTERNOON AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO IFR. AT THAT TIME WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH SPEED
OF 15 TO 20 KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM (NEXT 3
HOURS) TO FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BUT BLENDED IN WITH QUICK CLOUD
COVER RETURN 3AM TO 6AM. INCREASED POPS 3AM-6AM TO 20% FOR FAR
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN POSTED AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
/ALLEN/

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WEAKNESS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN AIDING NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO THE STRONGER SECONDARY ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST MILD EVENING/MORNING WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND NEAR 60F ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WEAK H5 DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING (ALBEIT WEAK) ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR DAWN AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY INTO WILLIAMSON/TRAVIS COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME LIGHT SHOWER WORDING ON THIS UPDATE FOR THE 3AM TO 6AM TIME
FRAME. THESE LIFTING FEATURES SHOULD HELP MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-10. INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR PLACES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THIS VICINITY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND
AN ELEVATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODELS
HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR ON THE 18Z/21Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN A QUESTION AS WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE
IN PLACE. NEW 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF CONSENSUS STILL PLACES MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION CORE FARTHER NORTH OF THE REGION. FIRST
PEEKS AT HI-RES DATA ALSO SUGGEST LESS CONSOLIDATED LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWER POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING DURING
POSSIBLE IMPACT WINDOW WHEN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW GLOBAL/HI-RES 00Z MODEL DATA TO DETERMINE IF
AND WHERE AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN NEARLY BISECTS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CAUSED THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR US YESTERDAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND MUCH CALMER WINDS ARE
IN PLACE. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND. THE ACTUAL
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION AND CAN BE SEEN BY THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ENTERS THE EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OUTCOME. WILL
KEEP A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TO THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DURING THE
DAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL GET GOING AFTER THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES WHEN THE BEST OVER RUNNING COMMENCES. 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STRENGTHENING WEST COAST RIDGE AND TROUGH TO
ITS EAST DEEPENING. TEXAS IS THEN PLACED IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF FLOW
AT 500 MB. THERE IS ALSO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW THAT WILL AID WITH THE
LIFTING FOR UPWARD MOTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOW A
WARM NOSE ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 11C.
THIS WILL DO A GOOD JOB PREVENTING SLEET FROM FALLING IN OUR
CWA...SO OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DISCREPANCIES WITH SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE YOU ARE LOOKING AT SO WE WILL TRY TO DISCUSS SOME OF WHAT WE
SEE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN THE WARM OUTLINES WITH 12Z MONDAY
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NAM/CANADIAN HAVE THE FREEZING LINE INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
AT THAT TIME AND THE SREF IS EVEN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. AS YOU CAN
SEE THERE ARE VARYING DIFFERENCES LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE. DIVING
FURTHER INTO THE GFS WE CAN LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THIS SHOWS
US THAT THE WARMER GFS TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY IN THE UPPER QUADRANT OF
ALL THE MEMBERS AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ABOUT 3
DEGREES COLDER ON AVERAGE. THIS GIVE US MORE CONFIDENCE WITH
GOING WITH THE COLDER CAMP AND THUS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LEADING UP TO MONDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE NAM WHICH
IS A GOOD BALANCE TO THE SREF AND THE CANADIAN. THEREFORE WILL
MENTION FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST AFTER 3AM FOR AREAS NORTH OF
A JUNO TO KERRVILLE TO BURNET LINE. IF THE SREF AND CANADIAN
VERIFY...THIS LINE MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS WE GET INTO MONDAY THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO
SHOW SOME ROOM FOR A BIT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO. THEREFORE WILL MENTION FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
PREVIOUS AREA THROUGH NOON AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FOR THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IF TEMPERATURES FALL ABOUT 3 DEGREES DURING THE DAY...AUSTIN COULD
BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LOW
PROBABILITY BUT NEEDS CLOSE WATCHING. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THE LAYER UNDERNEATH THE WARM NOSE GETTING TO -6C TO -7C
AND THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET MIXING IN. THINK THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND OPTED TO JUST KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE
AND MENTION FREEZING RAIN AS THE SOLE WINTER WEATHER TYPE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY AS WE GET INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN COULD EXPAND A BIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MAIN QUESTION THEN CHANGES TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONTINUING AT THE TIME MORE OF THE AREA IS
BELOW FREEZING. WE TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT MORE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THIS
BACK IN TIME A BIT FURTHER AND THUS THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL LAYER. THIS LIFT WILL BE BECOMING WEAKER AND
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IF THESE LIGHT
AMOUNTS FALL ON A GROUND WHICH IS NO LONGER WARM ANYMORE THERE
COULD BE MINOR IMPACTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. IF TEMPERATURES GET
INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...THERE COULD BE A BIT
MORE IMPACTS IN THIS REGION. HAVE MENTIONED FREEZING RAIN FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO BOERNE TO GIDDINGS LINE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

TO SUMMARIZE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOUR WILL BE
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THERE IS
PRECIPITATION FALLING. OUR GREATEST CONFIDENCE AREA OF SEEING
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND THIS AGREES
WELL WITH THE LATEST WPC ICE PROBABILITY MAPS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...STRENGTH
OF THE WARM NOSE AND TEMPERATURES BEING MAINLY IN THE 30-32 DEGREE
RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AS ANY
DEVIATIONS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
THINGS CAN CHANGE.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LATE WEEK FRONT. THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT INTO THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY ONCE AGAIN...BUT THINGS
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  54  34  37  31 /  20  60  50  70  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  51  55  36  38  30 /  20  60  50  70  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  58  37  38  32 /  10  60  50  70  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  51  32  34  28 /  20  60  60  70  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  70  39  42  36 /  10  30  50  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  52  33  35  29 /  20  60  50  70  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             56  64  39  39  34 /  10  40  60  60  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        53  57  36  38  31 /  20  60  50  70  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  61  38  40  32 /  20  60  50  70  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  61  37  39  33 /  10  50  50  70  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  62  39  40  34 /  10  40  50  70  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1045 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS/FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VCT AND CRP
TERMINALS. THIS WILL SPREAD TO ALI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THESE THREE SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FOR LRD AROUND
MORNING. NOT A BIG IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH ALI/CRP/VCT REMAINING
MVFR WITH STRATUS. HAVE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 03-04Z
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT AND LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCE INTO TAFS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF TONIGHT/S STRATUS ACROSS
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA BY SEVERAL HOURS. 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP
AND HRRR INDICATE THAT A LLJ OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT 925 SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY INCREASING
NEARLY AREAWIDE AT THAT TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS LAND AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST
WERE MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY DEWPOINTS. AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE MAY BE
SENT LATE THIS EVENING REGARDING RIP CURRENT RISK. FOR NOW...HAVE
HIGH RIP CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  76  47  51  39  /  10  20  50  60  40
VICTORIA          64  72  42  44  35  /  10  40  50  60  40
LAREDO            64  82  48  49  40  /  10  10  50  60  30
ALICE             64  81  46  50  38  /  10  20  50  60  40
ROCKPORT          63  73  47  50  40  /  10  20  50  60  40
COTULLA           60  73  43  45  38  /  10  30  50  60  30
KINGSVILLE        64  79  48  52  39  /  10  10  50  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       64  73  49  52  41  /  10  20  50  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1017 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.UPDATE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM (NEXT 3
HOURS) TO FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BUT BLENDED IN WITH QUICK CLOUD
COVER RETURN 3AM TO 6AM. INCREASED POPS 3AM-6AM TO 20% FOR FAR
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN POSTED AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
/ALLEN/

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WEAKNESS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN AIDING NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO THE STRONGER SECONDARY ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST MILD EVENING/MORNING WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND NEAR 60F ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WEAK H5 DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING (ALBEIT WEAK) ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR DAWN AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY INTO WILLIAMSON/TRAVIS COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME LIGHT SHOWER WORDING ON THIS UPDATE FOR THE 3AM TO 6AM TIME
FRAME. THESE LIFTING FEATURES SHOULD HELP MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-10. INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR PLACES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THIS VICINITY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND
AN ELEVATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.

CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODELS
HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR ON THE 18Z/21Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN A QUESTION AS WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE
IN PLACE. NEW 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF CONSENSUS STILL PLACES MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION CORE FARTHER NORTH OF THE REGION. FIRST
PEEKS AT HI-RES DATA ALSO SUGGEST LESS CONSOLIDATED LIGHT
DRIZZLE/SHOWER POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING DURING
POSSIBLE IMPACT WINDOW WHEN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW GLOBAL/HI-RES 00Z MODEL DATA TO DETERMINE IF
AND WHERE AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR AUSTIN TO
DRYDEN. FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. LOOKING FOR
CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
THEY WILL DROP TO IFR EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. DRT WILL DROP TO MVFR
BY EARLY MORNING AND IFR BY LATE MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATE MORNING IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND THIS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO LIFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN NEARLY BISECTS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH CAUSED THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR US YESTERDAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED EAST AND MUCH CALMER WINDS ARE
IN PLACE. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING BEHIND. THE ACTUAL
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION AND CAN BE SEEN BY THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ENTERS THE EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS OUTCOME. WILL
KEEP A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TO THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DURING THE
DAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL GET GOING AFTER THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES WHEN THE BEST OVER RUNNING COMMENCES. 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STRENGTHENING WEST COAST RIDGE AND TROUGH TO
ITS EAST DEEPENING. TEXAS IS THEN PLACED IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF FLOW
AT 500 MB. THERE IS ALSO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW THAT WILL AID WITH THE
LIFTING FOR UPWARD MOTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOW A
WARM NOSE ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 11C.
THIS WILL DO A GOOD JOB PREVENTING SLEET FROM FALLING IN OUR
CWA...SO OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DISCREPANCIES WITH SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE YOU ARE LOOKING AT SO WE WILL TRY TO DISCUSS SOME OF WHAT WE
SEE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN THE WARM OUTLINES WITH 12Z MONDAY
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
NAM/CANADIAN HAVE THE FREEZING LINE INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
AT THAT TIME AND THE SREF IS EVEN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. AS YOU CAN
SEE THERE ARE VARYING DIFFERENCES LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE. DIVING
FURTHER INTO THE GFS WE CAN LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THIS SHOWS
US THAT THE WARMER GFS TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY IN THE UPPER QUADRANT OF
ALL THE MEMBERS AND MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ABOUT 3
DEGREES COLDER ON AVERAGE. THIS GIVE US MORE CONFIDENCE WITH
GOING WITH THE COLDER CAMP AND THUS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LEADING UP TO MONDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE NAM WHICH
IS A GOOD BALANCE TO THE SREF AND THE CANADIAN. THEREFORE WILL
MENTION FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST AFTER 3AM FOR AREAS NORTH OF
A JUNO TO KERRVILLE TO BURNET LINE. IF THE SREF AND CANADIAN
VERIFY...THIS LINE MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS WE GET INTO MONDAY THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO
SHOW SOME ROOM FOR A BIT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO. THEREFORE WILL MENTION FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
PREVIOUS AREA THROUGH NOON AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FOR THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IF TEMPERATURES FALL ABOUT 3 DEGREES DURING THE DAY...AUSTIN COULD
BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LOW
PROBABILITY BUT NEEDS CLOSE WATCHING. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THE LAYER UNDERNEATH THE WARM NOSE GETTING TO -6C TO -7C
AND THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET MIXING IN. THINK THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND OPTED TO JUST KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE
AND MENTION FREEZING RAIN AS THE SOLE WINTER WEATHER TYPE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY AS WE GET INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THE THREAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN COULD EXPAND A BIT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MAIN QUESTION THEN CHANGES TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONTINUING AT THE TIME MORE OF THE AREA IS
BELOW FREEZING. WE TALKED YESTERDAY ABOUT MORE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THIS
BACK IN TIME A BIT FURTHER AND THUS THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL LAYER. THIS LIFT WILL BE BECOMING WEAKER AND
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...IF THESE LIGHT
AMOUNTS FALL ON A GROUND WHICH IS NO LONGER WARM ANYMORE THERE
COULD BE MINOR IMPACTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. IF TEMPERATURES GET
INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...THERE COULD BE A BIT
MORE IMPACTS IN THIS REGION. HAVE MENTIONED FREEZING RAIN FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO BOERNE TO GIDDINGS LINE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

TO SUMMARIZE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOUR WILL BE
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THERE IS
PRECIPITATION FALLING. OUR GREATEST CONFIDENCE AREA OF SEEING
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND THIS AGREES
WELL WITH THE LATEST WPC ICE PROBABILITY MAPS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...STRENGTH
OF THE WARM NOSE AND TEMPERATURES BEING MAINLY IN THE 30-32 DEGREE
RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AS ANY
DEVIATIONS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
THINGS CAN CHANGE.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LATE WEEK FRONT. THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT INTO THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY ONCE AGAIN...BUT THINGS
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  54  34  37  31 /  20  60  50  70  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  55  36  38  30 /  20  60  50  70  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  58  37  38  32 /  10  60  50  70  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  51  32  34  28 /  20  60  60  70  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  70  39  42  36 /  10  30  50  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  52  33  35  29 /  20  60  50  70  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  64  39  39  34 /  10  40  60  60  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  57  36  38  31 /  20  60  50  70  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  61  38  40  32 /  20  60  50  70  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  61  37  39  33 /  10  50  50  70  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  62  39  40  34 /  10  40  50  70  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 715 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
DAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. TWO
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK...ONE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE NEXT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST MONDAY...

WATCHING MOISTURE SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
EVENING...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. THE 18Z GFS/NAM PICK UP ON THIS SRN ENERGY WELL...BUT
WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING MORE COVERAGE OF SNOW INTO THE
SRN CWA BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
FROM THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS INTO THE NC HIGH COUNTRY. MAY HAVE TO
BUMP UP TOTALS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2-4"...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME OF
THE NC COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY SW VA COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY...AND
GIVEN THE MORNING TIMING AROUND WORK COMMUTE...COULD ENHANCE THE
ISSUE. WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST ONCE WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE
00Z SOUNDING/UPPER AIR DATA.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

SPLIT FLOW AT 500 MB CONTINUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST AREA STAYS
BETWEEN NORTHEAST TROF AND SOUTHERN STREAM. MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
COMING IN TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE -10 TO -15
RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE TO ABOUT -5 TO -10 BY THE END
OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA MOVES EAST
IN PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
WILL DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS.

CLOUDS FILL BACK IN LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST THEN EAST
WHICH WILL BANK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTED ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT ALL MODELS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS.
WILL BE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND WILL IMPACT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. SINCE WINDS DROP OFF BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK IN
THERE WILL BE A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING AND
THEN TEMPERATURES BECOME STEADY FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
AIR MASS THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY KEEP THE AREA
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INVERTED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FROM A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN OVER NORTH CAROLINA...CLIPPING SOUTHSIDE
VA...THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTO COLDER AIR WITH MAIN P-TYPE BEING SNOW. THE
NAM IS THE MOST BULL-ISH ON AMOUNTS WITH 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE VA/NC
BORDER...5-6 INCHES TOWARDS RALEIGH. THE GFS IS UNDER A HALF
/0.50/ OF AN INCH FOR THE AREA AND AROUND 3 INCHES TOWARDS RALEIGH.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND MAKE A FIRST GUESS
OF 1-2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER.

THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. ANOTHER FIRST GUESS
OF 1-2 INCHES WEST (POSSIBLY 3-4 ALONG RIDGES) TO LESS THAN HALF OF
AN INCH EAST.

THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM PHASE...DRAWING IN MORE MOISTURE. OR IF THE
SOUTHEASTERN DISTURBANCE DOMINATES...PULLING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...LEAVING LITTLE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH.

TEMPERATURES FORECAST WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING AS LONG AS SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE AREA. ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
CRASHING BELOW GUIDANCE. DURING THE DAY...ALBEDO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TO QUICKLY...THUS WILL TREND BELOW
GUIDANCE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS NORTH OF HWY 460.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT TRENDING TO
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
GOES FROM A BROAD CONUS TROF TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM BRINGING WARMER SWLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WHILE MODELS
HAVE A DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN THERE ARE ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING TO KEEP A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND THEN WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND AS IT
SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
AND...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND SOME
GENTLE UPSLOPE AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND WEDGES DOWN THE COASTAL
PLAIN...THIS WARRANTS SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR NUISANCE TYPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. THEN AS MOIST SWLY FLOW STARTS TO
INCREASE WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE ALONG
WITH OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. HANDLING OF EVENTS
THIS WEEKEND IS WHERE MODELS HAVE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS
ESPECIALLY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND TIMING. THUS...HAVE
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO BUILD A
BETTER CONSENSUS BEFORE MAKING DETAILED SPECULATIONS ON WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE
START OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST MONDAY...

CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE
FORECAST...BUT AS INVERTED TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE NC MTNS/SW
VA AREA OVERNIGHT THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND
INCREASE THE LOW CLOUD THREAT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
CAROLINAS...FEEDING UP THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH MODELS DEVELOPING
SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS A BLF-BCB-DAN LINE BETWEEN 13-16Z. SEEMS THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW THAT LIMITS VSBYS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH BLF COULD DROP TO 5SM. CIGS WILL BE SUB VFR AND AT
TIMES UNDER 1KFT AT ROA/BLF/BCB TUESDAY MORNING...INTO TUE
AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE CIGS RISING ABOVE VFR TIL AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE BLF/LWB AREAS.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SE WV AND POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

AFTER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND SNOW TO NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MAY CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

WHILE LESS PROBABLE...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A COASTAL SYSTEM
COULD TEAM UP WITH THE CLIPPER AND BRING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST REGION A GREATER COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH EXISTING SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY
MORNING...PENDING CLOUD COVER. SEVERAL CLIMATE STATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

2/24  REC LOWYEAR
ROA  71967
LYH101947
DAN101964
BCB  31968
BLF-11967
LWB      9      2009

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
CLIMATE...CF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 549 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND CHILLS WARMING INTO THE 5
TO 15 BELOW RANGE.  CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE WINNIPEG.  LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE BUT
THESE ARE OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER.  SOME WIND GUSTS ARE
REACHING BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE AND A MORE
POTENT WAVE BEHIND IT MOVING INTO THE REGION...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
AND IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS VERY DRY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
PRECIP-FREE THROUGH THE EVENING.  THEN AS A SECONDARY AND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING SHOULD PUSH AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE FOX VALLEY BY 12Z.  ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IN THE OPEN COUNTRY.  THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20
BELOW THIS EVENING...THEN WARM AS TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING LATE
IN THE MORNING.  MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PEELS OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK COULD YIELD SCATTERED FLURRIES.  ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP TO A HALF INCH.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE MORNING WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE PARALLEL TO DOOR COUNTY INITIALLY...BUT AS
WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST...BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME A HAZARD TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY EVEN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. SOME DISCUSSION WHETHER DOOR COUNTY WILL NEED A SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.  THINK WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE SNOW FALL TOMORROW MORNING AND AM UNCERTAIN HOW
CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
PRIOR TO THIS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS IN THE
OFFING...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE DRIFTING WEST OVER THE PACIFIC AND
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SETTING UP SOMETHING
MORE AKIN TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS THE WEEK GROWS LATE. THE
NORTHERN STREAM STILL HOLDS SIGNIFICANT SWAY IN OUR AREA
UNFORTUNATELY...AND THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY TO
BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PATCH OF SOMEWHAT OPEN WATERS ON
LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A LAKE EFFECT FETCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA FROM FREEZING OVER. THIS LEAVES POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SNOW BELT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
SLIGHT TO NIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS...BRINGING AN END TO
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER BEEFY HIGH WILL FOLLOW IN TO GIVE US ANOTHER PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT BEFORE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL SHOOT THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GEM STUBBORNLY BRINGS FLURRIES OR EXTREMELY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SHUNTS EVERYTHING WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA...AND THE FORECAST JOINS THAT CAMP IN KEEPING THINGS
DRY HERE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AGAIN...WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE COLD AIR REACHES ITS
NADIR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW/MID TEENS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY RETURN FOR ANOTHER SEQUEL...BUT THIS COLD
PUSH DOES NOT LOOK TO MATCH PREVIOUS ITERATIONS...SO THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT THIS TIME. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FLOW WILL PUSH IN A
SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND
PUSH OF WARMER AIR. HOWEVER...THERE IS SPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH
THIS AIR GETS...WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW POTENTIAL. THE
CANADIAN HOLDS COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SENDS YET ANOTHER
WINTER STORM THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE READY TO BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME IT AGAIN APPEARS THAT THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL MISS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE...GIVENT THE CURRENT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FOR ENOUGH
SNOWFALL TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. ULTIMATELY...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RELATIVELY FRAGILE
THIS FAR OUT...AND THE BEST ADVICE IS TO FOLLOW UPDATED FORECASTS
AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO 45 KNOTS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S. BITTER COLD RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING...HEATING HAS
SERVED TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH TRIGGERED A CU FIELD
TO FORM LATE IN THE MORNING.  DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AS EVIDENT BY THE CU FIELD DIMINISHING.  ONLY CLEAR AND BITTERLY
COLD CONDITIONS EXIST UPSTREAM...SO FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPS
AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY.

TONIGHT...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL IOWA.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WILL CAUSE ANY LINGERING CU TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
BECAUSE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...BOTH
STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WINDS REMAINING IN
THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
OVERNIGHT.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LIGHTEN.  AS A RESULT...THINK TEMPERATURES HAVE
A CHANCE TO TUMBLE LATE TONIGHT.  THIS MAKES FOR A DILEMMA IN TERMS
OF HEADLINE DECISIONS.  IF WINDS REMAIN IN THE 4-5 KT RANGE...SOME
PLACES LIKE ANTIGO AND RHINELANDER COULD REACH WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THINK
WARNING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DUE TO WINDS
DROPPING OFF.  SO WILL STICK WITH THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT SOME SPOTS WILL HIT WARNING CRITERIA.  IF
WINDS DO DROP OFF...TEMPS 25 TO 30 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL REACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.  A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.  BUT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
HELP MODERATE THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE
WARMING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE MORNING SO THE ENDING
TIME LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.  THOUGH CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE MAY REORGANIZE FURTHER WEST OVER
THE PACIFIC WHILE FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES TAKES ON MORE OF AN
APPEARANCE OF SPLIT FLOW. THIS CHANGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
DO MUCH TO REVERSE OUR TREND OF SEEING TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL. FOR NOW...ONLY TUESDAY LOOKS TO SEE HIGHS RELATIVELY NEAR
NORMAL...WITH A RETURN TO COLD WEATHER AFTER A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO...WITH
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LIKE OUR FAR NORTH FOR THE BEST CHANCE AND AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...TO BE EXPECTED AS THE LOW PASSES SOME DISTANCE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM PROVIDE
BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT...AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW DOWN
THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO NOT BE AS
ENAMORED OF THIS IDEA AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. IN GENERAL WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...PUTTING THE HIGHEST POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS IN FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT WILL PAY SOME DEFERENCE TO THE NORTH
AMERICAN MODELS AND THEIR PLAUSIBLE...IF NOT AS CONVINCING...IDEA
OF MORE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THIS SNOW...OUR POSITION BETWEEN THIS ONCOMING
LOW AND THE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR MOST RECENT COLD PLUNGE WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW THAT MAY
FALL...EVEN IF AMOUNTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS IN STRONG 50 TO 65 KNOT WINDS AT RELATIVELY LOW ALTITUDE
VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SHOW POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS...AND GUSTS EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH THIS SCENARIO WOULD NEED BETTER MIXING TO
COME TO FRUITION.

AFTERWARDS...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IN WHAT SURELY IS BEGINNING TO SOUND ALL
TOO FAMILIAR...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MIRED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST...WITH SUBZERO LOWS ON TAP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EMERGES DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NATURE OF THE UPPER
FLOW...WILL NOT SPECULATE ON THE DETAILS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

CUMULUS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
AND WILL PRODUCE BROKEN MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING ON MONDAY UNDER INCREASING CIRRUS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012-
018-019-030-035-036.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MPC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1044 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AREA OF SNOW
RESIDING WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN ZONE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH SUSPECT SOME OF THAT AREA IS NOT REACHING
THE GROUND.  ADDITIONALLY...ALSO SEEING LIGHT RETURNS DEVELOPING
OVER OCONTO AND MARINETTE COUNTIES WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
HAS DEVELOPED.  THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
TRENDS AND ACCORDING TO THE HI-RES MODELS.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE TEMPS WERE WELL BELOW ZERO EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE A
BEEFY ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.  AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD PROMOTE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS FEATURE.  OTHERWISE...THE INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH WILL PUSH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL END SNOW CHANCES
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEAR
AND ARCTIC AIR POURS ACROSS THE REGION.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
DECOUPLING OVER N-C WISCONSIN...BUT THINKING IF WINDS BECOME CALM IT
WILL BE ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME.  THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS AND
THE BRISK NW WINDS SUPPORT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT SO NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

SUNDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND TEMPS
COULD CONTINUE THEIR FALL INTO MID-MORNING DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION...BUT PROJECTED WIND
CHILLS WILL ONLY WARM TO AROUND 15 TO 22 BELOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ENDING TIME OF THE
ADVISORY ALONE.  HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE -5 TO 0 RANGE NORTH
TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

A LOOK AT THE RECENT BEHAVIOR OF THE 500 MB PATTERN FITS IN WELL
WITH OUR TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH. A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN
TROUGH ARE QUITE PERSISTENT...SHOWING CHANGES MORE IN AMPLITUDE
THAN POSITION. WITH THAT...OUR TEMPERATURES HAVE SPENT TIME
VARYING BETWEEN BELOW NORMAL AND WAY BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE TIME
BEING...THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOWS TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT
NEARLY AS LOW AS THEY HAVE GOTTEN THIS WINTER. FORECASTING WIND
CHILLS WILL BE DIFFICULT ACROSS THE NORTH. CALM WINDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THEIR COLDEST POSSIBLE LEVELS...BUT CALM
CONDITIONS COULD PRECLUDE A WARNING BY NOT MEETING THE WIND
THRESHOLD. MORE WIND WILL HELP PUSH WIND CHILLS DOWN...BUT WOULD
BE LIMITING BY ARRESTING TEMPERATURE FALLS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE THE FINAL DECISION ON
ANYTHING TO BE ISSUED FOR WIND CHILL. AN ADVISORY FOR MOST OR ALL
OF THE AREA IS PLAUSIBLE...AND A WARNING IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MAY BE ON THE TABLE. THOUGH THERE MIGHT BE A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE HEADLINES...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH
THAT IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND THOSE GOING TO WORK AND SCHOOL
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH ANOTHER IN THE
PARADE OF LOWS SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST BRINGING AN ARCTIC
FRONT TO OUR AREA...WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE REMAINS FRUSTRATINGLY ON THE EDGE BETWEEN BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW WELL INTO THE AREA...OR ONLY BRINGING A GLANCING BLOW
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ULTIMATELY THIS FORECAST DOES NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...THE EQUIVALENT OF DUMPING THE PUCK INTO THE
CORNER AND HOPING THAT A LINE CHANGE OF MODELS WILL BRING MORE
CLARITY.

BITTER COLD RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WITH SOME HOPE FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP TO MERELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

STUBBORN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTS TO HANG AROUND FAR ERN
WI LATE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
TROF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONT TO SAG S-SE AND MOVE OUT OF
E-CNTRL WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VSBYS WL BE REDUCED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE LIGHT SNOW...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO
ADVECT INTO WI FROM CANADIAN HI PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THESE
VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT AS THE HI
PRES GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY
NW WINDS ON SUNDAY AS CAA POURS INTO WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019-030-035-036.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......AK







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1113 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE WSW FOR ZONE 68.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER LOWS A TAD AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WARM...ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRRAIN...AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE WSW FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

AN UPR LOW OVR CA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...
MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN WEAKENING AND
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU NM ON TUE.

SNOW HAS CONTINUED FALLING OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD
AND IT FAIRLY SPOTTY AND WL CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY AT 3 PM.

OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS THE SNOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE
SPOTTY...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SRN AREAS NR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  WL
ALLOW THAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM.

THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW PCPN CHANCE DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS OVR MOST OF THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS.  THE NAM KEEPS
WIDESPREAD SNOW OVR THE ERN SAN JUANS EARLY IN THE EVENING. WEB CAMS
SHOULD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL CURRENTLY AT LXV AND MONARCH
PASS...SO WL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AT 3
PM...ALONG WITH CANCELING WARNINGS FOR ZONES 64 AND 65...BUT WL
LEAVE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.  WL LEAVE
THE WARNING FOR THE ERN SAN JUANS (ZONE 68) IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z.
ERN SAN JUANS COULD GET ANOTHER FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF.

BY 09Z THE NAM SHOWS DRY WX OVR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MIDMORNING TUE. THE NAM THEN SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SW MTNS AS THE UPR LOW
MOVES INTO NM. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE SW
MTNS AND THE SANGRES THRU THE NIGHT AND THRU TUE.  THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT DOES NOT SPREAD THE PCPN ON TUE QUITE AS FAR
NORTH.  HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS OVR THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH HIGHER POPS OVR THE
SW MTNS DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP AGAIN AS LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON TUE...BUT THE SNOW COVER IN MANY LOCATIONS WL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND SO WL STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

...ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT LINGERING
SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW SOME AREAS SEE. SNOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...DOWN
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WHILE
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE NAM
WHICH KEEPS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT UPSLOPE EFFECTS AND SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH 30S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 20S ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 20S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SPREAD IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. MODELS KEEP LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
30S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIME EXPECTED
AT COS AND PUB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXPECTING IFR AND LIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH FOG DISSIPATING AFT 16Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1020 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER LOWS A TAD AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WARM...ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRRAIN...AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE WSW FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

AN UPR LOW OVR CA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...
MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN WEAKENING AND
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU NM ON TUE.

SNOW HAS CONTINUED FALLING OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD
AND IT FAIRLY SPOTTY AND WL CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY AT 3 PM.

OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS THE SNOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE
SPOTTY...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SRN AREAS NR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  WL
ALLOW THAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM.

THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW PCPN CHANCE DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS OVR MOST OF THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS.  THE NAM KEEPS
WIDESPREAD SNOW OVR THE ERN SAN JUANS EARLY IN THE EVENING. WEB CAMS
SHOULD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL CURRENTLY AT LXV AND MONARCH
PASS...SO WL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AT 3
PM...ALONG WITH CANCELING WARNINGS FOR ZONES 64 AND 65...BUT WL
LEAVE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.  WL LEAVE
THE WARNING FOR THE ERN SAN JUANS (ZONE 68) IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z.
ERN SAN JUANS COULD GET ANOTHER FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF.

BY 09Z THE NAM SHOWS DRY WX OVR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MIDMORNING TUE. THE NAM THEN SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SW MTNS AS THE UPR LOW
MOVES INTO NM. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE SW
MTNS AND THE SANGRES THRU THE NIGHT AND THRU TUE.  THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT DOES NOT SPREAD THE PCPN ON TUE QUITE AS FAR
NORTH.  HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS OVR THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH HIGHER POPS OVR THE
SW MTNS DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP AGAIN AS LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON TUE...BUT THE SNOW COVER IN MANY LOCATIONS WL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND SO WL STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

...ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT LINGERING
SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW SOME AREAS SEE. SNOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...DOWN
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WHILE
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE NAM
WHICH KEEPS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT UPSLOPE EFFECTS AND SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH 30S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 20S ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 20S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SPREAD IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. MODELS KEEP LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
30S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIME EXPECTED
AT COS AND PUB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXPECTING IFR AND LIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH FOG DISSIPATING AFT 16Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 421 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT
TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL THEN EXPAND TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER
FEATURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST
OFFSHORE SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAT MAY IMPACT A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS NECESSITATED
SOME CHANGES TO ICE POTENTIAL. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
SWIFTLY EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. PVA AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN ADDITION
TO LOW LEVEL FORCING IN FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THE
SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING IN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AND PROVIDING A NICE COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND
SUPPLYING SOME COLD/DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG A RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING COINCIDENT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AS STATED ABOVE...ALMOST ALL OF THE 24/00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
WARMER INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP.
THESE RAPID UPDATE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE
UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SO THEY
HAVE BEEN RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.
COLD AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE THE DAMMING HIGH MOVES TO A LESS THAN IDEAL POSITION. AS
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING MAINLY ACROSS A CORE PORTION OF COUNTIES INCLUDING
BERKELEY...CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES. MORE
MARGINAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
HAMPTON...ALLENDALE...AND SCREVEN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SO THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM AND THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PEAK TIME FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL ROUGHLY OCCUR FROM
AROUND 7-9 AM AT THE BEGINNING TO AROUND NOON-1PM AT THE END.
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACE INCLUDING
BRIDGES...TREES...TREE LIMBS...AND SOME POWER LINES. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND MONCKS
CORNER TO SUMMERVILLE AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. TOTAL LIQUID
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH INLAND TO UP TO THREE TENTHS OF A INCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A CLOSE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND FORCING WANES. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL DURING THE DAY WE MAY SEE SOME BLACK
ICE ISSUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION AS WELL AS
COLLETON COUNTY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN INITIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
TEXAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT TRAVELS
QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE IS BEING DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL 140 KT UPPER JET AND A 90-100
KT MID LEVEL JET. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL
HAVE BEEN TO OUR SOUTH AND SE FROM TODAY. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL
POCKET OF DRY AIR EARLY IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT 850-500 MB AND SINKING
MOTION UNDERNEATH A MESO-HIGH THAT IS ATOP THE FORECAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL START TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATER PORTION OF
THE DAY ON VARIOUS LEVELS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FEATURES ALOFT. THIS ALLOWS FOR OVER-RUNNING RAINS TO INITIATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPANDING FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE. JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE RAINING BY DARK. QPF WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/10
TO 1/4 INCH IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION TO AS MUCH AS 1/2 TO
2/3 INCHES WEST OF SAVANNAH.

THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO BLACK ICE IN
THE EARLY GOING ACROSS INLAND PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY
AREA...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE NEGATED
SLIGHTLY BY SOME WARM ADVECTION...BUT WE/RE RESTRICTED TO BASICALLY
UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE DAMPENING PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 00-06Z...PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE AND
CAUSES THE GULF SURFACE LOW TO EITHER TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA
OR REDEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EQUATE TO PLENTY OF
RAINFALL WITH NEAR 100 POPS ALL SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW LATE AT NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY WEAK
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
LOW. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WIND SHEAR THERE
MIGHT BE A RISK FOR A FEW T-STORMS TO OCCUR. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY...WHILE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT A SUBTLE
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC
LOW. THE BULK OF THE RAINS WILL HAVE PULLED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...BUT THERE REMAINS A DECENT INVERSION WITHIN THE WEDGE
REGIME TO KEEP CONDITIONS DAMP AND CHILLY. WITHIN A NORTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE/RE
LOOKING AT HIGHS AGAIN NO MORE THAN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS FILTERS IN FROM THE NW.
SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NW TIER.

FRIDAY...A 1042 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND COVERS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THE LOCAL REGION. A
CHILLY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL...BUT GIVEN BETTER INSOLATION
THAN RECENT DAYS WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TO
OUR MAX TEMPS. EVEN SO...WE/RE STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST
DAY OF WHAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE A VERY COLD FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW OR FLAT RIDGING WILL EXIST ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMULTANEOUSLY THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY START
TO MODIFY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST SATURDAY...INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...BEFORE STRETCHING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TRANSITION A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE NEARBY
WATERS...NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY...BEFORE
IT LIFTS NORTH AND TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE PROXIMITY
TO THE TROUGH COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
LOW AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY IS STILL FAR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY...LEADING TO
WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS BY 09Z.
SOME DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL
AFTER 14Z WHICH IS WHEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER IFR LEVELS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FROM ABOUT 14-18Z...THUS FREEZING RAIN IS
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
AFTER 18Z...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL END BUT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 23Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER 14Z WHICH IS WHEN CEILINGS WILL
LOWER IFR LEVELS AND VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...THUS NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN TO
OCCUR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME INTO INTO
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST...A TIGHT
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS FOR ALL
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. THE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE ONGOING ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO COME
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE WITH
WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS AND SEAS WITH A BUBBLE HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS CONDITIONS WILL START
TO DETERIORATE TOWARD EVENING AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TRACKS EAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA OR REFORM IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING FURTHER AS IT REACHES THE GULF STREAM
WATERS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY NE THEREAFTER. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW WE/LL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY. THERE EXISTS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
T-STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GIVEN
STRONG VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THERE MIGHT BE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE NORTH...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH TRANSFORMS
INTO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG GRADIENT
AROUND THE HUGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN SEEM LIKELY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ088.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ043>045-050-052.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 354 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT
TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL THEN EXPAND TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER
FEATURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST
OFFSHORE SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAT MAY IMPACT A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS NECESSITATED
SOME CHANGES TO ICE POTENTIAL. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
SWIFTLY EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. PVA AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN ADDITION
TO LOW LEVEL FORCING IN FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THE
SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING IN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AND PROVIDING A NICE COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND
SUPPLYING SOME COLD/DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG A RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING COINCIDENT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AS STATED ABOVE...ALMOST ALL OF THE 24/00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
WARMER INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP.
THESE RAPID UPDATE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE
UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SO THEY
HAVE BEEN RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.
COLD AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE THE DAMMING HIGH MOVES TO A LESS THAN IDEAL POSITION. AS
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING MAINLY ACROSS A CORE PORTION OF COUNTIES INCLUDING
BERKELEY...CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES. MORE
MARGINAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
HAMPTON...ALLENDALE...AND SCREVEN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SO THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM AND THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PEAK TIME FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL ROUGHLY OCCUR FROM
AROUND 7-9 AM AT THE BEGINNING TO AROUND NOON-1PM AT THE END.
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACE INCLUDING
BRIDGES...TREES...TREE LIMBS...AND SOME POWER LINES. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND MONCKS
CORNER TO SUMMERVILLE AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. TOTAL LIQUID
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH INLAND TO UP TO THREE TENTHS OF A INCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A CLOSE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND FORCING WANES. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL DURING THE DAY WE MAY SEE SOME BLACK
ICE ISSUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION AS WELL AS
COLLETON COUNTY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN INITIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
TEXAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT TRAVELS
QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE IS BEING DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL 140 KT UPPER JET AND A 90-100
KT MID LEVEL JET. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL
HAVE BEEN TO OUR SOUTH AND SE FROM TODAY. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL
POCKET OF DRY AIR EARLY IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT 850-500 MB AND SINKING
MOTION UNDERNEATH A MESO-HIGH THAT IS ATOP THE FORECAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL START TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATER PORTION OF
THE DAY ON VARIOUS LEVELS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FEATURES ALOFT. THIS ALLOWS FOR OVER-RUNNING RAINS TO INITIATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPANDING FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE. JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE RAINING BY DARK. QPF WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/10
TO 1/4 INCH IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION TO AS MUCH AS 1/2 TO
2/3 INCHES WEST OF SAVANNAH.

THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO BLACK ICE IN
THE EARLY GOING ACROSS INLAND PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY
AREA...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE NEGATED
SLIGHTLY BY SOME WARM ADVECTION...BUT WE/RE RESTRICTED TO BASICALLY
UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE DAMPENING PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 00-06Z...PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE AND
CAUSES THE GULF SURFACE LOW TO EITHER TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA
OR REDEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EQUATE TO PLENTY OF
RAINFALL WITH NEAR 100 POPS ALL SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW LATE AT NIGHT.

THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY WEAK
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
LOW. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WIND SHEAR THERE
MIGHT BE A RISK FOR A FEW T-STORMS TO OCCUR. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY...WHILE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT A SUBTLE
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC
LOW. THE BULK OF THE RAINS WILL HAVE PULLED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...BUT THERE REMAINS A A DECENT INVERSION WITHIN THE WEDGE
REGIME TO KEEP CONDITIONS DAMP AND CHILLY. WITHIN A NORTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE/RE
LOOKING AT HIGHS AGAIN NO MORE THAN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NW TIER.

FRIDAY...A 1042 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND COVERS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THE LOCAL REGION. A
CHILLY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL...BUT GIVEN BETTER INSOLATION
THAN RECENT DAYS WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TO
OUR MAX TEMPS. EVEN SO...WE/RE STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST
DAY OF WHAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE A VERY COLD FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW OR FLAT RIDGING WILL EXIST ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMULTANEOUSLY THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY START
TO MODIFY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST SATURDAY...INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...BEFORE STRETCHING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TRANSITION A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE NEARBY
WATERS...NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY...BEFORE
IT LIFTS NORTH AND TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE PROXIMITY
TO THE TROUGH COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
LOW AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY IS STILL FAR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY...LEADING TO
WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS BY 09Z.
SOME DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL
AFTER 14Z WHICH IS WHEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER IFR LEVELS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FROM ABOUT 14-18Z...THUS FREEZING RAIN IS
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
AFTER 18Z...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL END BUT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 23Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER 14Z WHICH IS WHEN CEILINGS WILL
LOWER IFR LEVELS AND VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...THUS NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN TO
OCCUR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME INTO INTO
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST...A TIGHT
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS FOR ALL
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. THE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE ONGOING ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO COME
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE WITH
WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS AND SEAS WITH A BUBBLE HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS CONDITIONS WILL START
TO DETERIORATE TOWARD EVENING AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TRACKS EAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA OR REFORM IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING FURTHER AS IT REACHES THE GULF STREAM
WATERS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY NE THEREAFTER. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW WE/LL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY. THERE EXISTS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
T-STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GIVEN
STRONG VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THERE MIGHT BE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE NORTH...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH TRANSFORMS
INTO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG GRADIENT
AROUND THE HUGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN SEEM LIKELY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ088.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ043>045-050-052.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 207 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN EXPAND TO BECOME THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME NOTEWORTHY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE IMPENDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT BASED ON TRENDS IN
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES...WETTER WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND LATER
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE. THE WARMING TREND
IS MOST NOTICEABLE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ONGOING
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. VIRTUALLY EVERY MODEL AND GUIDANCE SOURCE
FEATURES SOME DEGREE OF A WARMING TREND AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THESE CHANGES IS HIGH. ALSO...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
FOLLOWING THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP WHICH SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION...IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES DO NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE AND MORE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORY
INCLUDING...JENKINS...JASPER...BEAUFORT...AND COASTAL COLLETON.
INSTEAD...THE FOCUS FOR FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE ICE ACCRETION
IS ACROSS A CORE AREA THAT STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM
BERKELEY...ACROSS NORTHERN CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON
COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE TRACE AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FROM AROUND 7
AM TO 1 PM IN THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE MOVING
FARTHER OFFSHORE BRINGING AN END TO ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING ACROSS MAINLY
JUST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SC...GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM AROUND MCCLELLANVILLE TO CHARLESTON TO WALTERBORO.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME BLACK ICE AS ANY WET ROADWAYS COULD
FREEZE. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 40 ALONG THE GA COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CHILLY BUT DRY START TO THE
DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. AM CONCERNED THERE COULD BE
A LITTLE BLACK ICE ACROSS INTERIOR SC AROUND DAYBREAK BUT THEN TEMPS
LOOK TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WHICH SHOULD TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND/OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO STEADY RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST...CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY...POSSIBLY ENDING AS SOME
DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO FROZEN PRECIPITATION/BLACK ICE ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
AROUND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AROUND CHARLESTON
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HUMONGOUS AND ROBUST 1040 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH AND COVERS MUCH OF THE
NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA. THIS LEADS TO
DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS BEGIN TO
MODERATE. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THIS TRANSITION
JUST OFF OUR COAST...AND WE LOOK FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN RESPONSE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS BY 09Z.
SOME DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL
AFTER 14Z WHICH IS WHEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER IFR LEVELS AND
VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FROM ABOUT 14-18Z...THUS FREEZING RAIN IS
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
AFTER 18Z...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL END BUT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 23Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER 14Z WHICH IS WHEN CEILINGS WILL
LOWER IFR LEVELS AND VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...THUS NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN TO
OCCUR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING
CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE TIME INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
INTERLUDES OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN RAIN EVENTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINED SCAS FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY TO ADDRESS
A SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION/INCREASED MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL GUST 25-30 KTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM AS HIGH AS 6-7
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 8-9 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN IS MORE LIKELY JUST INLAND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT/WED
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY...THEN CONDITIONS WILL GO BACK
DOWNHILL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE AGAIN LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK WILL THEN
MAINTAIN POOR CONDITIONS WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GAZ088.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ043>045-050-052.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...RJB/SPR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 428 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE AS MESONET SITES AT WHITLEY CITY AND
BARBOURVILLE ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND PICTURE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A DUSTING IN BARBOURVILLE THIS MORNING. ALSO
MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO ARE BOTH REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS
HOUR. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING SO
LEANED TOWARD IT TO GET A BETTER POP TREND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
LIGHT IN NATURE AT THIS POINT THINK THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND SPS
PLACEMENT WILL HANDLE THIS. THAT SAID DID UPDATE POPS/QPF/SNOW TO
HANDLE THESE REPORTS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE THIS MORNING AS DRYER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID DO STILL THINK THE
AIRMASS RIGHT ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING. STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
NE TN ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING WHERE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED. OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDED WEST IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE VA BORDER. ALSO SHOULD MENTION THE HRRR
HAS CONTINUED TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SAME REGION OF
CONCERN. STILL OPTED TO ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE SHARP CUTOFF ON
MUCH OF EASTERN KY WILL IN FACT NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
SYSTEM BESIDES CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY FLURRIES AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW LATE...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS NEXT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS
POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM
BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO
KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND
CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH VFR FOR TAF SITES ACROSS EASTERN KY.
A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE TN VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD LOWER CLOUD DECK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR THE PRECIP FROM THIS WILL SPREAD AND
WHAT AFFECT THE DRYER AIRMASS WILL HAVE ON THIS. RIGHT NOW HAVE A
MVFR DECK MAKING IT UP TO LOZ...JKL AND SJS BY 10Z WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THESE SITES. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT IT VCSH
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 109 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SNOW POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

AFTER REVIEW OF THE 0Z NAM AND 21Z SREF OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BELL...HARLAN...AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FURTHER AND UP AMOUNTS A TAD BASED ON
THIS GUIDANCE TO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SREF PROB OF GREATER THAN
1 INCH IN 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA IS 50 TO 80 PERCENT. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT ON THE VA BORDER.

THERE SHOULD BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. IN
COUNTIES JUST NORTH AND WEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A
DUSTING OR JUST FLURRIES FROM WHITLEY CITY TO LONDON EAST AND
NORTHEAST TO TO NEAR HAZARD TO SOUTH OF PRESTONSBURG TO THE BELFRY
AND SOUTH WILLIAMSON AREA. AMOUNTS OF ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ARE ANTICIPATED IN EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
WHITLEY...KNOX...CLAY...LESLIE...PERRY...KNOTT...FLOYD AND PIKE
COUNTIES.

THE SPS WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY WITH HOURLY GRIDS FRESHENED
BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

SEVERAL UPDATES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE AS THE 18Z GFS AND 18Z
NAM AS WELL AS 21Z SREF AND HRR AND RAP RUNS ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
FROM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES REACHING THE VA
AND SOME OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE FAR NORTH MAY REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THAT TIME. WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SNOW ON THE GROUND...IT STILL
APPEARS SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEEN ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MID TEENS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
BORDER AREA AND SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ALONG OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF A STEARNS TO LONDON TO
HAZARD TO PIKEVILLE TO SOUTH WILLIAMSON LINE. A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE
VA BORDER. SOME GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IN THE FORECAST ATTM IS FOR
BELL...HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
WHETHER OR NOT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA AS THE 0Z
GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL THE EXTREMELY
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS CLEARLY SHOW A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...IT WILL PULL FRIGID ARCTIC AIR
SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. EVEN THOUGH TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WE
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SINGLE LOWS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY TODAY...CLOUD COVER SCATTERED OUT
MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT IS THE PASSAGE
OF A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
THESE CLOUDS WOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES IN
OUR FAR NORTH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS...
EVERYONE SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO...IF ONLY SLIGHTLY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 30S FOR MOST FOLKS...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED BEFORE...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...AS SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. EACH OF
THESE COULD SPAWN SOME FLURRIES...BUT OUR BEST SHOT OF SNOW WILL
COME ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING
ANY DEEP MOISTURE THOUGH SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW OUR THURSDAY SYSTEM
WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS
IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR AREA IN
RESPONSE. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE A MODERATING
TREND. UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT INCREASING
MOISTURE...AND IN TIME...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. SOME MIXED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS PTYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALL RAIN BY NOON ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AT LEAST. WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WATER LOCKED UP IN OUR
SNOW PACK...AND MORE IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS OF THE HEADWATERS OF
OUR RIVERS...ANY WARM UP AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST IS TROUBLING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH VFR FOR TAF SITES ACROSS EASTERN KY.
A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE TN VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD LOWER CLOUD DECK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR THE PRECIP FROM THIS WILL SPREAD AND
WHAT AFFECT THE DRYER AIRMASS WILL HAVE ON THIS. RIGHT NOW HAVE A
MVFR DECK MAKING IT UP TO LOZ...JKL AND SJS BY 10Z WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THESE SITES. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT IT VCSH
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1243 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

AFTER REVIEW OF THE 0Z NAM AND 21Z SREF OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BELL...HARLAN...AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FURTHER AND UP AMOUNTS A TAD BASED ON
THIS GUIDANCE TO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SREF PROB OF GREATER THAN
1 INCH IN 12 HOURS IN THAT AREA IS 50 TO 80 PERCENT. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT ON THE VA BORDER.

THERE SHOULD BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. IN
COUNTIES JUST NORTH AND WEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A
DUSTING OR JUST FLURRIES FROM WHITLEY CITY TO LONDON EAST AND
NORTHEAST TO TO NEAR HAZARD TO SOUTH OF PRESTONSBURG TO THE BELFRY
AND SOUTH WILLIAMSON AREA. AMOUNTS OF ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ARE ANTICIPATED IN EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
WHITLEY...KNOX...CLAY...LESLIE...PERRY...KNOTT...FLOYD AND PIKE
COUNTIES.

THE SPS WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY WITH HOURLY GRIDS FRESHENED
BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

SEVERAL UPDATES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE AS THE 18Z GFS AND 18Z
NAM AS WELL AS 21Z SREF AND HRR AND RAP RUNS ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
FROM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES REACHING THE VA
AND SOME OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE FAR NORTH MAY REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THAT TIME. WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SNOW ON THE GROUND...IT STILL
APPEARS SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEEN ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MID TEENS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
BORDER AREA AND SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ALONG OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF A STEARNS TO LONDON TO
HAZARD TO PIKEVILLE TO SOUTH WILLIAMSON LINE. A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE
VA BORDER. SOME GUIDANCE WOULD POINT TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE IN THE FORECAST ATTM IS FOR
BELL...HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
WHETHER OR NOT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA AS THE 0Z
GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL THE EXTREMELY
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS CLEARLY SHOW A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...IT WILL PULL FRIGID ARCTIC AIR
SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH IT. EVEN THOUGH TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WE
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SINGLE LOWS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY TODAY...CLOUD COVER SCATTERED OUT
MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER. ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT IS THE PASSAGE
OF A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES
SO...LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
THESE CLOUDS WOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR
NOW THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES IN
OUR FAR NORTH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS...
EVERYONE SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO...IF ONLY SLIGHTLY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 30S FOR MOST FOLKS...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED BEFORE...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...AS SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY
DEVELOP IN THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. EACH OF
THESE COULD SPAWN SOME FLURRIES...BUT OUR BEST SHOT OF SNOW WILL
COME ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING
ANY DEEP MOISTURE THOUGH SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW OUR THURSDAY SYSTEM
WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS
IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR AREA IN
RESPONSE. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE A MODERATING
TREND. UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT INCREASING
MOISTURE...AND IN TIME...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. SOME MIXED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS PTYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALL RAIN BY NOON ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AT LEAST. WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WATER LOCKED UP IN OUR
SNOW PACK...AND MORE IN THE HARDER HIT AREAS OF THE HEADWATERS OF
OUR RIVERS...ANY WARM UP AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST IS TROUBLING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH VFR FOR TAF SITES ACROSS EASTERN KY.
A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE TN VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD LOWER CLOUD DECK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR THE PRECIP FROM THIS WILL SPREAD AND
WHAT AFFECT THE DRYER AIRMASS WILL HAVE ON THIS. RIGHT NOW HAVE A
MVFR DECK MAKING IT UP TO LOZ...JKL AND SJS BY 10Z WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THESE SITES. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT IT VCSH
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1211 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE STREAMER OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS BLOWING OFF THE ST
LAWRENCE HAS BEEN WANING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED AS WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIE DOWN AS WELL. THIS DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. EVEN STILL,
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -35F ARE
EXPECTED. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE VALUES APPROACHING
-40F FOR A TIME, BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND WINDS
SHOULD DROP TO 10 MPH OR LESS SHORTLY. THEREFORE, THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE
STREAMERS OFF THE ST. LAWRENCE, WIND CHILLS AND OF COURSE
TEMPERATURES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS MOVING E OFF THE ST
LAWRENCE. LLVL CONVERGENCE SHOWING UP ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE(THE CROWN MOST PARTICULARLY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY COULD BRING AN INCH OF
SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND THEN WINDS BEGIN TO LET UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 800MBS W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT.
DECIDED TO BOOST POPS UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS(60-80%) TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW. THE RAP/NAM12 AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS
WERE DOING WELL W/THIS SETUP. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW A FACTOR INTO
THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
9 PM. HISTORICALLY, CLOUDS AND STREAMERS BREAK UP AS THE WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. THIS IS SHOWN TO
BE THE CASE LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER S, BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES
W/SOME SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY
COLD IF NOT BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WE ARE TALKING 15 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AND PERHAPS 30 BELOW IN THE SHELTERED AREAS. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WILL 10 TO 15 BELOW EVEN TO THE COAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE
ON THE DOCKET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY APPROACHING WARNING
CRITERIA(-35F) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ATTM,
DECIDED TO STAY W/WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AS THE WINDOW LOOKS TO BE
SHORT(<3 HRS) FOR WIND CHILLS TO HIT <-35F AND WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP OFF BELOW 10 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY AND VERY COLD W/HIGH PRES RIDGING
INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IF FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION QUICKLY DURING THE DAY W/CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE BY THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
IN THE SINGLE NUMBER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE 10 TO 15
AT BEST AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH, OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST,
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IN DETERMINING
HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND HOW CLOSE THE LOW WILL TRACK TO
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CARRIES THE LOW
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING SPREADING SNOW ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ON UP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A
SMALL, FAST MOVING LOW AND APPEARS WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM
DOWNEAST AREAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN AREAS OF NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS OUT. THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ALL OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING JUST A QUICK SNOWFALL OF MODERATE
INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE QUICK TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES AS DRY AND BREEZY
WEATHER FOLLOWS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
DOWNEAST AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE HIGH WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO SATURDAY, THEN WARM UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE
HIGH ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/IFR VSBYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS(NORTH OF KHUL) DUE TO THE STREAMERS OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE. FURTHER SOUTH, GENERALLY VFR. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP OFF
LEADING TO VFR. IT LOOKS LIKE VFR FOR THE ENTIRE AVIATION SECTOR
FOR TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN
IFR VERY LATE AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE NOW HITTING GALE FORCE(35 KTS) ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER ZONES AS THE CAA IS HITTING IN EARNEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING W/GUSTS TO 40 KTS. THE NAM12 WAS
DOING WELL W/THE CURRENT SETUP. WINDS WILL START DROPPING OFF
LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE SW RIDGES EASTWARD. GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE WARNING IS UP FOR HEAVY ICING
POTENTIAL. SEAS ARE COMING UP BUT WERE SLOWER TO RESPOND. SEAS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 8 FT OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING MAINLY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/BLOOMER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 505 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM N
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND
A RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE NW CONUS. WAA AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO FAR NRN MN
SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH VSBY GENERALLY IN
THE 1-3SM RANGE. ANOTHER COMPACT UPSTREAM SHRTWV OR PV ANOMALY WAS
LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO ERN MN WERE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO...GREATEST FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE ERN
CWA...IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT. SNOW MAY ALSO INCREASE THIS
MORNING OVER THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AND SHRTWV MOVE THROUGH WITH A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. ALTHOUGH THE WRN LAKE IS MOSTLY
FROZEN THERE MAY BE ENOUGH GAPS IN THE ICE COVER FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAT/MOISTURE TO BOOST THE SNOW. 230 SW FLOW OFF OF NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL LES MAINLY E OF THE CWA. BY THIS
AFTERNON...THE NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI FOR A FEW HOURS GIVEN THE FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES AS A -30C 700 MB COLD POOL
MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV AS WINDS
VEER TO THE NW AND CAA DROPS 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -23C TO -27C
RANGE. THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WILL SIGNFICANTLY REDUCE ANY LES
POTENTIAL BUT WITH THE RECENT STRONG WINDS A FEW MORE GAPS COULD
ALLOW SOME BANDS TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LONGER FETCH INTO THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
DOWN TO -7F TO -14F WITH WIND CHILL VALUES TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
OF -25. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NEAR 5 MPH
IN THE COLDEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

WITH AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES...WITH THE
MOVING/BREAKING ICE HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHAT WE AREA ABLE
TO GET IN OUR NW TO W FLOW THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A
FEW STREAMERS OF LES OFF OPEN AREAS...IMPACTING PRIMARILY ALGER AND
N LUCE COUNTIES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOW TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILLS AGAIN. INCLUDED IN THE HWO THE MENTION
OF WIND CHILL READINGS OF 20 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE TIME OF NEAR CRITICAL WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAY NOT HOIST WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE PERIODS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS WINDS MAY NOT
GET TO THE 10MPH OR GREATER THRESHOLD. GENERALLY WE HAVE BEEN TOO
STRINGENT ON THE WIND SIDE OF THE CRITERIA WHEN WIND CHILLS HAVE
BEEN GETTING CLOSER TO WARNING LEVELS.

KEPT WITH VERY COLD AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS FALLING -20 TO -25F. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS BASICALLY OVERHEAD...AND 850MB TEMPS -23 TO
-25C...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES.

OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR ALL OF UPPER MI. OPTED FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ONCE AGAIN LIMITED THE LES
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE AT MOST GIVEN THE ICE COVER OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SNOW POTENTIAL IS BECOMING LESS IMPRESSIVE
SUNDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH FARTHER N
THAN S WI.

AS NOTED FROM PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... FEBRUARY 2015 IS A
LOCK TO BREAK LAST YEAR/S RECORD COLD FEBRUARY. THROUGH THE
22ND...THE AVERAGE TEMP THIS MONTH HAS BEEN 2.9 DEGREES. PERFORMING
A ROUGH CALCULATION BASED OFF THE FORECAST DATA...WE SHOULD END UP
RIGHT AROUND 2.5 DEGREES FOR THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH AT
NWS MARQUETTE. THAT WOULD BEAT THE RECORD OF 5.6 DEGREES SET JUST
LAST YEAR. AT OTHER SITES WITH LONGER PERIODS OF RECORD...THIS
FEBRUARY WILL LIKELY END UP AS A TOP 5 OR TOP 10 COLDEST FEBRUARY.
MANY SITES HAVE 1936 AS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...WHICH AT
IRONWOOD EVEN ENDED UP WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO
(ALMOST 4 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS MONTH).
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN AREA OF -SN IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI
EARLY THIS MRNG...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHC FOR PERSISTENT IFR VSBYS DUE TO THE FALLING
-SN AND SOME BLSN WHIPPED UP BY GUSTY SW WINDS WL BE AT CMX...CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHRTWV AND DEEPER MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND
STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MRNG...A REINFORCING
DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT ARCTIC COLD FROPA WL BRING MORE SHSN/GUSTY
NW WINDS/BLSN IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND CAA
THAT SHARPEN LLVL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WL LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE LES...THE BLSN AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION
WL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBYS AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME UNTIL THE
EVNG...WHEN LARGER SCALE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SUPPRESSES THE LES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SOUTHWEST GALES AROUND 35 KTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN LAKE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20KTS. ICE COVER IS EXTENSIVE...SO FREEZING SPRAY
IS NOT A PROBLEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263-264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1129 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME SNOW. CONSIDERABLE
DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL TRACK IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING STORM AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

NO HEADLINE OR SIGNIFICANT FCST CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TONIGHT. A
CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL WITH
THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES NEAR TO NW
OF A LINE FROM KMKG TO KRQB. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND THE SNOW WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE DEALS WITH THE IMPACT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT TRACKS THROUGH ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL IT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH IMPACTS TO WARRANT HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

I DID CHECK IN WITH A COUPLE OF ROAD COMMISSIONS AND THEY
INDICATED THAT WINDS OVER 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. EVEN SOME
HIGHWAYS COULD BE IMPACTED. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS GUSTS TOPPING 40
KNOTS FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS NORTHEAST THROUGH MOUNT PLEASANT AND
BETTER THAN 35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE
LAKESHORE NORTH OF MUSKEGON...WITH BETTER THAN 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
I AM NOT CERTAIN WILL SEE SUCH HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER ENOUGH RISK
THERE TO GO WITH A HEADLINE. THE MAIN WINDOW OF STRONG WINDS
RANGES FROM 09Z TO 18Z FOR LUDINGTON...13Z TO 21Z FOR GRAND RAPIDS
AND 16Z TO 23Z FOR JACKSON.

SNOW ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UP
NORTH FROM LUDINGTON TO HARRISON. FURTHER SOUTH GRAND RAPIDS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...TO AN INCH OR LESS FOR
JACKSON AND LANSING. STILL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW...
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY AT TIMES. LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS COULD START THE DAY OFF WITH SOME SUN.

WIND CHILL VALUES ON TUESDAY COULD START OFF AROUND -15 DEGREES...
WHICH IS HAZARDOUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER A LULL IN THE WIND...WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF
SNOW AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
ASSESS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LATCHED ONTO FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS NOW. CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY DRY...BUT COLD FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND LIKELY MONDAY TOO. HOWEVER IT`S THE PERIOD
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT PROMISES TO BE
INTERESTING.

IT/S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW
CWA SATURDAY EVENING...LIKELY AS SNOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST AND
SO THERE WILL BE A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE. DESPITE THE MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT STILL HAS SOME ISSUES. ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SHOW THIS BEGINNING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND THEN PHASING WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AS IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS ISN/T THE CLASSIC STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NEWD. AT LEAST NOT YET. QPF WITH THE SYSTEM IS PROGD
IN THE 2/3 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE...WHICH IF ALL SNOW WOULD CERTAINLY BE
PLOWABLE. THE WARMER ECMWF WOULD LIKELY TURN PCPN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE WE KEPT THE PCPN
AS SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

ALL OF THE PCPN WILL LIKELY END MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
AFTER DAYBREAK TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
BEFORE THE SNOW MOVES IN WHICH COULD LEAD TO REDUCE VSBYS AND
SLICK RUNWAY CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING RUSH.

THE FALLING SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST... REACHING MKG AROUND 15Z AND LAN/JXN AROUND 19Z. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND LOWEST VSBYS WILL BE AT MKG AND GRR SO WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATELY IFR VSBYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THESE TWO SITES AND
MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
HOWEVER FOR IFR TO DEVELOP AT ALL THE TERMINALS DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT OF THE BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WED BUT STILL 10 TO 20 KTS... AND
CIGS/VSBYS REMAINING PREDOMINATELY MVFR. CANT RULE OUT SOME IFR
VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING BEYOND 00Z WED BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

WITH NO MAJOR WARM UPS OR RAINFALL HEADED OUR WAY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...RUNOFF WILL BE LIMITED. SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL
OCCUR.  CONSIDERABLE ICE DOES EXIST IN THE RIVERS SO WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. FOR NOW WITH CONDITIONS STABLE DUE TO
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE RISK IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAURENS
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 1013 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MID MORNING
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. RECENT HRRR OUTPUT AND NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE SUPPORT IDEA OF LINGERING -FZRA/FZDZ IN THE 12-15Z TIME
FRAME AND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXPECT FAIRLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HAVING SAID THAT...EXPECT MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS NOT TO PERSIST MUCH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL WINDS
VEER WITH PASSING WAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES. HAVE FOLLOWED
HRRR IDEA OF KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR A LONGER
DURATION IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
SLOW DOWN HEATING. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

UPDATE...

MADE UPDATES TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN AND UP ICE AMOUNTS
IN SW TO CENTRAL MS WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS OF FZRA/IP ARE FOCUSING.
SE PROGRESSION OF FREEZING LINE GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK BUT MADE
SLIGHT EDITS. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY CONTINUED SHOWERY PCPN
TRAINING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR ALONG/W OF JACKSON METRO AREA AS
SOME LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH ICE STORM CRITERIA IF THIS CONTINUES
AS RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERING EXTENDING FZRA
ADVISORY A LITTLE FARTHER E/SE. /EC/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

.WINTRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WERE BEING OBSERVED AT MID AFTERNOON GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STARKVILLE TO RAYMOND TO JUST WEST OF
NATCHEZ. LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MIXED
WITH LIGHT SLEET HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA THAT WAS HELPING
DRIVE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
MIXING WITH LIGHT SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING
MITIGATING ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAZARDS BUT FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL THE RAIN
ENDS TUESDAY MORNING. IF IT LOOKS LIKE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
SURGE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...THE REMAINDER OF OUR
CWA MAY COME UNDER AN ADVISORY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH SO A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
OUR CWA HELPING BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BUT PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DELTA
MELTING ANY REMAINING ICE. THE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY LAST INTO THE EVENING AS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY A CLOSED LOW WILL
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THEN OPEN UP AND TRACK EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES OUR CWA
FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BACK OVER OUR
CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST
OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. CURRENT THINKING
SUGGESTS TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. MAINLY
A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A BASTROP TO BELZONI TO MACON LINE. EXPECT FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN
LATER FORECASTS OF THIS EVENT AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE...THEN AGAIN LESSER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IF
THE COLD CORE TRACK IS DIFFERENT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
OF MISSISSIPPI. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 60S.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       29  40  32  37 /  89  18  45 100
MERIDIAN      31  44  32  38 /  86  22  32 100
VICKSBURG     25  39  31  37 /  89  17  56 100
HATTIESBURG   35  47  35  42 /  60  30  48 100
NATCHEZ       28  41  32  39 /  90  29  68 100
GREENVILLE    22  36  30  35 /  61   7  30  97
GREENWOOD     26  37  29  35 /  68   8  23  97

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ037>039-
     042>062.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-
     019-025>036-040-041.

LA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ015-016-
     023>026.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     LAZ007>009.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THE COLD FROPA GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE.
THIS LEAVES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF (UP TO AN HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS/LOW VSBY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BEFORE THE COLD FROPA...MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1241 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NO STRONG SYSTEMS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...

A TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FIRST OFF LOW TEMPS. THERE IS
A CONCERN THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED ON NAM WILL CUT OFF
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG AND S OF I64 AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL TEND TO NIX COOLING ON THE RIDGES. WILL HOLD
WITH PREVIOUS LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...TRIED TO HIT A FEW MORE COLD SPOTS IN THE N LOWLANDS
WITH LOWER NEGATIVE NUMBERS.

AS FOR TOMORROW...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE TREND NW IN THE PRECIP WITH
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF EXTENDING WELL N OF SURFACE LOW. THIS
INVERTED TROF AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL WAVE
SUPPORTS SNOW INTO SW VA AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF SE WV TUESDAY
MORNING. 18Z NAM/18Z GFS/RECENT RUC AND HRRR SUPPORT BUMPING POPS
UP INTO LIKELY AND INSERT UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR OUR SW
VA COUNTIES. COULD SEE A SKIFF ON OUR E SLOPES OF SE WV AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LAST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS LIFTING AND THINNING OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AT 19Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED A FEW DEGREES IN THE
LOWLANDS WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE...SOME CIRRUS
HEADING TOWARD OUR KY/VA/WV TRI STATE.

FIGURING ON PATCHES OF MID DECK ESPECIALLY 06Z TO 12Z ACROSS SRN WV
INTO SW VA MOSTLY S OF HTS-CRW.  ALSO WARMING WILL BE OCCURRING AT
THE 925 TO 850 MB LEVEL OVERNIGHT.  SO IN COMPARISON TO LAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING THIS COLD SNAP DOES NOT MEASURING UP.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS AND LESS WIND IN THE
ELKINS VICINITY THIS TIME AROUND...SO WILL GO COLDER
THERE...COMPARED TO LAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.  HAVE SOME
MINIMUMS OF MINUS 15 TO MINUS 18 IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES CLOSER TO ZERO.  ALSO LOWERED NORTH CENTRAL
MINIMUM A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE CLEARER SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS.  ANOTHER COLD SPOT SHOULD BE INTERIOR SE OHIO...STILL MINUS 5
TO MINUS 10.  CAN NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY THERE THOUGH...SINCE 925
MB FLOW INCREASING 09Z TO 12Z. INCREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
SLIGHTLY FROM BKW ON SW INTO VA OVERNIGHT TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT THOSE
PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS RETURNING FROM THE WEST...AND MAYBE THE WIND
STIRS FROM THE SE OVER THOSE RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU 06Z TO
12Z.  SO OVERALL...TIGHTENED UP THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. BUT THERE WILL STILL SOME LOCAL EFFECTS TOO
BETWEEN HILLTOPS AND HOLLOWS.

WILL KEEP MEASURABLE POPS AOB 20 PCT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FIGURED...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO OUR
PREVIOUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH
THE UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL LOWER POPS SOME FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THEN MOVES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT UNDER THE DISTURBANCE. WILL INCLUDE SOME
SMALL POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF A BIT DIFFERENT ON
TIMING...WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER BRINGING THE HIGH IN THUS TRYING
TO LINGER PRECIP A LITTLE LONGER. WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SPEED
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ALSO CARRIES OVER INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM...A
LOW RIDING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS A GOOD 24
HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z GFS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED THINGS DOWN. WITH SUCH LARGE
DISCREPANCY WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC ON...ALTHOUGH WENT A BIT SLOWER
BRINGING INITIAL PRECIPITATION IN BASED ON 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SUNDAY...WITH COLD FRONT
CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z TODAY...AFFECTING THE BKW TERMINAL
WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED WITH THE
SNOW LIFTING OUT AFTER 21Z TODAY. EKN WILL GET INTO LOWER
CEILINGS...BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE LOWER THERE AND DO NOT HAVE
THEM IN PREVAILING SNOW...NOR ARE THEY IN MVFR SKIES.

ELSEWHERE...CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSING MID/HIGH
LEVEL FEW-SCT CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z. CEILINGS LOWER AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LOW END CHANCES OF
SNOW RAMPING UP. FOR THIS FORECAST...PKB ONLY COMES DOWN TO 3.5KFT
AT 03Z WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW/CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT BKW
COULD VARY BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...RPY/MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1157 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE
DAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. TWO
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK...ONE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE NEXT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EST MONDAY...

STILL WATCHING MOISTURE SOUTHWEST OF US THIS EVENING. 00Z MODELS
COMING IN WETTER THOUGH SEEM TO BE INITIALIZING TOO MUCH OVERALL.
LATEST HRRR DOES FORM SNOW OVER THE MTNS OF NC IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. TIMING OF SNOW APPEARS BETWEEN 1AM AND 4 AM IN THE NC MTNS TO
FAR SW VA...FINALLY REACHING NWD TOWARD SE WV AROUND BLF TO BCB
AND SOUTH BY DAWN...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT
HERE...FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH FALLS/LENGTH OF TIME.
THINK THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GENERALLY AROUND 2
INCHES OR LESS WILL OCCUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD BEECH
MTN AND SOUTH OR WEST. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD WELL EAST
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AMOUNTING TO A DUSTING
OR LESS.

HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR THE FAR SW CWA THROUGH
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS STILL LOOKING COLDER
IN THE NORTH WITH LESS CLOUDS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND WILL IMPACT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SINCE WINDS DROP OFF BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES BACK IN THERE WILL BE A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES DURING
THE EVENING AND THEN TEMPERATURES BECOME STEADY FOR LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND AIR MASS THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY KEEP THE AREA
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INVERTED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FROM A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN OVER NORTH CAROLINA...CLIPPING SOUTHSIDE
VA...THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTO COLDER AIR WITH MAIN P-TYPE BEING SNOW. THE
NAM IS THE MOST BULL-ISH ON AMOUNTS WITH 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE VA/NC
BORDER...5-6 INCHES TOWARDS RALEIGH. THE GFS IS UNDER A HALF
/0.50/ OF AN INCH FOR THE AREA AND AROUND 3 INCHES TOWARDS RALEIGH.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND MAKE A FIRST GUESS
OF 1-2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER.

THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. ANOTHER FIRST GUESS
OF 1-2 INCHES WEST (POSSIBLY 3-4 ALONG RIDGES) TO LESS THAN HALF OF
AN INCH EAST.

THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM PHASE...DRAWING IN MORE MOISTURE. OR IF THE
SOUTHEASTERN DISTURBANCE DOMINATES...PULLING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...LEAVING LITTLE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH.

TEMPERATURES FORECAST WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING AS LONG AS SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE AREA. ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
CRASHING BELOW GUIDANCE. DURING THE DAY...ALBEDO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TO QUICKLY...THUS WILL TREND BELOW
GUIDANCE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS NORTH OF HWY 460.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT TRENDING TO
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
GOES FROM A BROAD CONUS TROF TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM BRINGING WARMER SWLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WHILE MODELS
HAVE A DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN THERE ARE ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING TO KEEP A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND THEN WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND AS IT
SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
AND...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND SOME
GENTLE UPSLOPE AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND WEDGES DOWN THE COASTAL
PLAIN...THIS WARRANTS SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR NUISANCE TYPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. THEN AS MOIST SWLY FLOW STARTS TO
INCREASE WE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE ALONG
WITH OUR TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. HANDLING OF EVENTS
THIS WEEKEND IS WHERE MODELS HAVE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS
ESPECIALLY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND TIMING. THUS...HAVE
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO BUILD A
BETTER CONSENSUS BEFORE MAKING DETAILED SPECULATIONS ON WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE
START OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST MONDAY...

VFR TO BECOME MVFR OR WORSE BY 12Z ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
FLOW TURNS MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST WITH INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
MTNS. LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BLF-DAN
LINE...WITH BLF HAVING BEST THREAT OF SEEING MVFR OR WORSE VSBYS.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE OVER THE NC MTNS WHERE MORE SNOW OCCURS THOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CIGS AT LEAST STAYING MVFR OR WORSE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INCREASE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS BY
LATER TUESDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SE WV AND POCKETS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

AFTER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND SNOW TO NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MAY CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

WHILE LESS PROBABLE...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A COASTAL SYSTEM
COULD TEAM UP WITH THE CLIPPER AND BRING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST REGION A GREATER COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH EXISTING SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY
MORNING...PENDING CLOUD COVER. SEVERAL CLIMATE STATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

2/24  REC LOWYEAR
ROA  71967
LYH101947
DAN101964
BCB  31968
BLF-11967
LWB      9      2009

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
CLIMATE...CF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE LIKELY WORDING FOR A PERIOD OF -SN THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. IMPRESSIVE LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OF 20 UNITS EXTENDS FROM THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID-LAYERS. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE A RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO
NRN MN...WHICH IS TIED TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. THIS WAVE
RIDING ON THE HEELS OF FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
WI.

FIRST WAVE SERVING TO MOISTEN MID-LEVELS WITH PATCHY -SN FALLING
ACROSS NRN WI. SECOND WAVE WL HAVE A BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND A QUARTER
INCH THIS MRNG. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDING ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG.
POTENTIAL FOR ONE HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST
CWA. WL BE LUCKY TO GET MEASUREABLE LIQUID PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CWA.

DESPITE LOSS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...ARCTIC FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI. LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH UP TO 5K
FEET...PARTIALLY IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS FRONT SLIDES THRU. HENCE KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR
POTENTIAL OF SCT -SHSN ACROSS ERN CWA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE LATE AFTN WHILE NAM HOLDS ONTO
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE EVE. FOR NOW KEPT EVENING /AFTER 00Z/
DRY.

925H TEMPS WARM TO -6 TO -8. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK. EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK
IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI TNGT ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
RETURN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS RETURNING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS IN
THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE RESULTING IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WITH
BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH BS
FROM CURRENT SNOW COVER DUE TO CRUST.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A GENEARL NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY DO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE QPF AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS MISSING THE AREA
TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH. THEY
ALSO SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE BELOW AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION. DELTA T VALUES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE...THOUGH DECENT ICE
COVERAGE ON THE LAKE MAY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HANGING ON IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY CHANGE 500 MB FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL LOOK FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THEY BRING A SHOT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. COLD
FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. MORE COLD AIR LOOKS ON TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ENOUGH FORCING AS DESCRIBED ABOVE TO WARRANT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT ERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG. WL DROP TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS AREAS OF -SN MOVE THRU. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
-SHSN IN THE AFTN WITH CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND MVFR LEVELS.
EXPECT TREND TOWARD VFR IN THE LATE AFTN OR EVE. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM MONDAY SHOWED WIDESPREAD
ICE COVER FROM THE SHORE EXTENDING OUT TO AROUND 10 MILES INTO
LAKE MI. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...HOWEVER AIR TEMPS REMAINED
QUITE COLD. TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS
TONIGHT.

THINKING A FEW AREAS OF OPEN WATER MAY FORM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH COLD
TEMPS...WITH SOME ABATEMENT THIS AFTN AND EVE AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 20S. A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING TO GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1036 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND CHILLS WARMING INTO THE 5
TO 15 BELOW RANGE.  CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE WINNIPEG.  LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE BUT
THESE ARE OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER.  SOME WIND GUSTS ARE
REACHING BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE AND A MORE
POTENT WAVE BEHIND IT MOVING INTO THE REGION...SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
AND IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS VERY DRY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
PRECIP-FREE THROUGH THE EVENING.  THEN AS A SECONDARY AND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...STRONG FORCING SHOULD PUSH AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE FOX VALLEY BY 12Z.  ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IN THE OPEN COUNTRY.  THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20
BELOW THIS EVENING...THEN WARM AS TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING LATE
IN THE MORNING.  MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PEELS OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK COULD YIELD SCATTERED FLURRIES.  ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP TO A HALF INCH.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE MORNING WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE PARALLEL TO DOOR COUNTY INITIALLY...BUT AS
WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST...BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME A HAZARD TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY EVEN AS WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. SOME DISCUSSION WHETHER DOOR COUNTY WILL NEED A SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.  THINK WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE SNOW FALL TOMORROW MORNING AND AM UNCERTAIN HOW
CONDITIONS WILL BE AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
PRIOR TO THIS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS IN THE
OFFING...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE DRIFTING WEST OVER THE PACIFIC AND
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SETTING UP SOMETHING
MORE AKIN TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS THE WEEK GROWS LATE. THE
NORTHERN STREAM STILL HOLDS SIGNIFICANT SWAY IN OUR AREA
UNFORTUNATELY...AND THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY TO
BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PATCH OF SOMEWHAT OPEN WATERS ON
LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG A LAKE EFFECT FETCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA FROM FREEZING OVER. THIS LEAVES POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SNOW BELT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
SLIGHT TO NIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS...BRINGING AN END TO
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER BEEFY HIGH WILL FOLLOW IN TO GIVE US ANOTHER PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT BEFORE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL SHOOT THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GEM STUBBORNLY BRINGS FLURRIES OR EXTREMELY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SHUNTS EVERYTHING WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA...AND THE FORECAST JOINS THAT CAMP IN KEEPING THINGS
DRY HERE.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AGAIN...WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE COLD AIR REACHES ITS
NADIR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW/MID TEENS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY RETURN FOR ANOTHER SEQUEL...BUT THIS COLD
PUSH DOES NOT LOOK TO MATCH PREVIOUS ITERATIONS...SO THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT THIS TIME. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FLOW WILL PUSH IN A
SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND
PUSH OF WARMER AIR. HOWEVER...THERE IS SPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH
THIS AIR GETS...WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW POTENTIAL. THE
CANADIAN HOLDS COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SENDS YET ANOTHER
WINTER STORM THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE READY TO BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME IT AGAIN APPEARS THAT THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL MISS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FOR ENOUGH
SNOWFALL TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. ULTIMATELY...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RELATIVELY FRAGILE
THIS FAR OUT...AND THE BEST ADVICE IS TO FOLLOW UPDATED FORECASTS
AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW
IS A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO SATURATION ISSUES. LIGHT WILL END ACROSS
SOUTH LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. VFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...THEN BECOME VFR
AGAIN LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 705 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT
TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL THEN EXPAND TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER
FEATURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST
OFFSHORE SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS BEFORE...BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START AND END TIMES BY
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN LATEST TEMP AND WET BULB TRENDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS
NE. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL DRAW COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND AS IT DOES SO THE RAIN WILL
BECOME MODERATE IN INTENSITY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO 32F OVER THE
CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY REGION FROM ABOUT 9 AM-2PM...AND FOR
ALLENDALE...HAMPTON AND SCREVEN FROM ABOUT 10 AM-1 PM. AS A
RESULT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FREEZE ON MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES.

TODAY...THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAT MAY IMPACT A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS NECESSITATED
SOME CHANGES TO ICE POTENTIAL. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
SWIFTLY EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. PVA AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN ADDITION
TO LOW LEVEL FORCING IN FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THE
SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING IN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AND PROVIDING A NICE COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND
SUPPLYING SOME COLD/DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG A RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING COINCIDENT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AS STATED ABOVE...ALMOST ALL OF THE 24/00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
WARMER INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE RAP.
THESE RAPID UPDATE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE
UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SO THEY
HAVE BEEN RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.
COLD AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE THE DAMMING HIGH MOVES TO A LESS THAN IDEAL POSITION. AS
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING MAINLY ACROSS A CORE PORTION OF COUNTIES INCLUDING
BERKELEY...CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES. MORE
MARGINAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
HAMPTON...ALLENDALE...AND SCREVEN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SO THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM AND THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PEAK TIME FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL ROUGHLY OCCUR FROM
AROUND 7-9 AM AT THE BEGINNING TO AROUND NOON-1PM AT THE END.
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACE INCLUDING
BRIDGES...TREES...TREE LIMBS...AND SOME POWER LINES. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND MONCKS
CORNER TO SUMMERVILLE AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. TOTAL LIQUID
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH INLAND TO UP TO THREE TENTHS OF A INCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A CLOSE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND FORCING WANES. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL DURING THE DAY WE MAY SEE SOME BLACK
ICE ISSUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION AS WELL AS
COLLETON COUNTY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN INITIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
TEXAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT TRAVELS
QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE IS BEING DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL 140 KT UPPER JET AND A 90-100
KT MID LEVEL JET. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL
HAVE BEEN TO OUR SOUTH AND SE FROM TODAY. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL
POCKET OF DRY AIR EARLY IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT 850-500 MB AND SINKING
MOTION UNDERNEATH A MESO-HIGH THAT IS ATOP THE FORECAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL START TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATER PORTION OF
THE DAY ON VARIOUS LEVELS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FEATURES ALOFT. THIS ALLOWS FOR OVER-RUNNING RAINS TO INITIATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPANDING FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE. JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE RAINING BY DARK. QPF WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/10
TO 1/4 INCH IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION TO AS MUCH AS 1/2 TO
2/3 INCHES WEST OF SAVANNAH.

THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO BLACK ICE IN
THE EARLY GOING ACROSS INLAND PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY
AREA...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE NEGATED
SLIGHTLY BY SOME WARM ADVECTION...BUT WE/RE RESTRICTED TO BASICALLY
UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE DAMPENING PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 00-06Z...PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE AND
CAUSES THE GULF SURFACE LOW TO EITHER TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA
OR REDEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EQUATE TO PLENTY OF
RAINFALL WITH NEAR 100 POPS ALL SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW LATE AT NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY WEAK
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
LOW. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WIND SHEAR THERE
MIGHT BE A RISK FOR A FEW T-STORMS TO OCCUR. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY...WHILE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT A SUBTLE
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL IN WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC
LOW. THE BULK OF THE RAINS WILL HAVE PULLED OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...BUT THERE REMAINS A DECENT INVERSION WITHIN THE WEDGE
REGIME TO KEEP CONDITIONS DAMP AND CHILLY. WITHIN A NORTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE/RE
LOOKING AT HIGHS AGAIN NO MORE THAN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. COLD
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS FILTERS IN FROM THE NW.
SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NW TIER.

FRIDAY...A 1042 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND COVERS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THE LOCAL REGION. A
CHILLY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL...BUT GIVEN BETTER INSOLATION
THAN RECENT DAYS WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TO
OUR MAX TEMPS. EVEN SO...WE/RE STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST
DAY OF WHAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE A VERY COLD FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW OR FLAT RIDGING WILL EXIST ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMULTANEOUSLY THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY START
TO MODIFY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST SATURDAY...INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUNDAY...BEFORE STRETCHING BACK ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TRANSITION A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE NEARBY
WATERS...NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY...BEFORE
IT LIFTS NORTH AND TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE PROXIMITY
TO THE TROUGH COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
LOW AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY IS STILL FAR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY...LEADING TO
WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...LIGHT RAINS AND LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN STARTS TO FREEZE AS TEMPS DROP DURING THE
MID-MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE TEMPS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND THE
PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO RAIN. AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END. EVEN
SO...ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SHARP INVERSION WILL KEEP
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH A SHARP
INVERSION. LIGHT RAINS AND DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE CYCLE WILL BECOME
A STEADY MODERATE RAIN FROM ABOUT 14Z-18Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF DURING MID AFTERNOON AS ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF VARYING
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME INTO INTO
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST...A TIGHT
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS FOR ALL
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. THE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE ONGOING ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO COME
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE WITH
WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS AND SEAS WITH A BUBBLE HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS CONDITIONS WILL START
TO DETERIORATE TOWARD EVENING AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TRACKS EAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA OR REFORM IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING FURTHER AS IT REACHES THE GULF STREAM
WATERS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY NE THEREAFTER. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW WE/LL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY. THERE EXISTS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
T-STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GIVEN
STRONG VERTICAL WIND FIELDS THERE MIGHT BE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE NORTH...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH TRANSFORMS
INTO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG GRADIENT
AROUND THE HUGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN SEEM LIKELY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GAZ088.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ043>045-050-052.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ040-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1053 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH AROUND NOON
TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN QUITE CLEARLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...MODIFIED THE
GRIDS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES...QPF...SNOWFALL AMTS...AND
WEATHER TYPE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM TODAY. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER AND GRID UPDATES. WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SNOW HAS MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA AND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS THE SNOW IS HAVING IN FLOYD AND
PIKE COUNTIES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND GRAPHICAL NOWCAST
HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND ANY IMPACTS IT MAY
BE HAVING. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN GOING
ON IN SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FLOYD COUNTY. THE SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING HARD ENOUGH IN THOSE TWO AREAS TO ACCUMULATE ON
AREA ROADWAYS. THE SPS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCAST THAT WERE MENTIONED
BEFORE ARE ADDRESSING THOSE ISSUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE JUST
MADE UPDATES FOR OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE AS MESONET SITES AT WHITLEY CITY AND
BARBOURVILLE ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND PICTURE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A DUSTING IN BARBOURVILLE THIS MORNING. ALSO
MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO ARE BOTH REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS
HOUR. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING SO
LEANED TOWARD IT TO GET A BETTER POP TREND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
LIGHT IN NATURE AT THIS POINT THINK THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND SPS
PLACEMENT WILL HANDLE THIS. THAT SAID DID UPDATE POPS/QPF/SNOW TO
HANDLE THESE REPORTS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE THIS MORNING AS DRYER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID DO STILL THINK THE
AIR MASS RIGHT ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING. STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
NE TN ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING WHERE
AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED. OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDED WEST IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
THE TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE VA BORDER. ALSO SHOULD MENTION THE
HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SAME REGION
OF CONCERN. STILL OPTED TO ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE SHARP CUTOFF ON
MUCH OF EASTERN KY WILL IN FACT NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
SYSTEM BESIDES CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY FLURRIES AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW LATE...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS NEXT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS
POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM
BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO
KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND
CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

MOST TAF SITES HAVE EVADED THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SKIRTING THE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND GIVEN THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SITES VFR THIS ISSUANCE. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
KY AND POTENTIAL FOR A LOWER DECK.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 644 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE JUST
MADE UPDATES FOR OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE AS MESONET SITES AT WHITLEY CITY AND
BARBOURVILLE ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND PICTURE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A DUSTING IN BARBOURVILLE THIS MORNING. ALSO
MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO ARE BOTH REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS
HOUR. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING SO
LEANED TOWARD IT TO GET A BETTER POP TREND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
LIGHT IN NATURE AT THIS POINT THINK THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND SPS
PLACEMENT WILL HANDLE THIS. THAT SAID DID UPDATE POPS/QPF/SNOW TO
HANDLE THESE REPORTS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE THIS MORNING AS DRYER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID DO STILL THINK THE
AIRMASS RIGHT ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING. STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
NE TN ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING WHERE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED. OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDED WEST IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE VA BORDER. ALSO SHOULD MENTION THE HRRR
HAS CONTINUED TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SAME REGION OF
CONCERN. STILL OPTED TO ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE SHARP CUTOFF ON
MUCH OF EASTERN KY WILL IN FACT NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
SYSTEM BESIDES CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY FLURRIES AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW LATE...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS NEXT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS
POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM
BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO
KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND
CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

MOST TAF SITES HAVE EVADED THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SKIRTING THE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND GIVEN THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SITES VFR THIS ISSUANCE. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
KY AND POTENTIAL FOR A LOWER DECK.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 634 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE AS MESONET SITES AT WHITLEY CITY AND
BARBOURVILLE ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND PICTURE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A DUSTING IN BARBOURVILLE THIS MORNING. ALSO
MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO ARE BOTH REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS
HOUR. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING SO
LEANED TOWARD IT TO GET A BETTER POP TREND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
LIGHT IN NATURE AT THIS POINT THINK THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND SPS
PLACEMENT WILL HANDLE THIS. THAT SAID DID UPDATE POPS/QPF/SNOW TO
HANDLE THESE REPORTS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE THIS MORNING AS DRYER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID DO STILL THINK THE
AIRMASS RIGHT ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING. STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
NE TN ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING WHERE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED. OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDED WEST IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE VA BORDER. ALSO SHOULD MENTION THE HRRR
HAS CONTINUED TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SAME REGION OF
CONCERN. STILL OPTED TO ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE SHARP CUTOFF ON
MUCH OF EASTERN KY WILL IN FACT NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
SYSTEM BESIDES CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY FLURRIES AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW LATE...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS NEXT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS
POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM
BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO
KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND
CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

MOST TAF SITES HAVE EVADED THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SKIRTING THE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND GIVEN THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SITES VFR THIS ISSUANCE. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
KY AND POTENTIAL FOR A LOWER DECK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 633 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM N
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND
A RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE NW CONUS. WAA AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO FAR NRN MN
SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH VSBY GENERALLY IN
THE 1-3SM RANGE. ANOTHER COMPACT UPSTREAM SHRTWV OR PV ANOMALY WAS
LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO ERN MN WERE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO...GREATEST FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE ERN
CWA...IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT. SNOW MAY ALSO INCREASE THIS
MORNING OVER THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AND SHRTWV MOVE THROUGH WITH A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. ALTHOUGH THE WRN LAKE IS MOSTLY
FROZEN THERE MAY BE ENOUGH GAPS IN THE ICE COVER FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAT/MOISTURE TO BOOST THE SNOW. 230 SW FLOW OFF OF NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL LES MAINLY E OF THE CWA. BY THIS
AFTERNON...THE NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI FOR A FEW HOURS GIVEN THE FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES AS A -30C 700 MB COLD POOL
MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV AS WINDS
VEER TO THE NW AND CAA DROPS 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -23C TO -27C
RANGE. THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WILL SIGNFICANTLY REDUCE ANY LES
POTENTIAL BUT WITH THE RECENT STRONG WINDS A FEW MORE GAPS COULD
ALLOW SOME BANDS TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LONGER FETCH INTO THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
DOWN TO -7F TO -14F WITH WIND CHILL VALUES TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
OF -25. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NEAR 5 MPH
IN THE COLDEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

WITH AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES...WITH THE
MOVING/BREAKING ICE HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHAT WE AREA ABLE
TO GET IN OUR NW TO W FLOW THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A
FEW STREAMERS OF LES OFF OPEN AREAS...IMPACTING PRIMARILY ALGER AND
N LUCE COUNTIES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOW TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILLS AGAIN. INCLUDED IN THE HWO THE MENTION
OF WIND CHILL READINGS OF 20 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE TIME OF NEAR CRITICAL WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAY NOT HOIST WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE PERIODS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS WINDS MAY NOT
GET TO THE 10MPH OR GREATER THRESHOLD. GENERALLY WE HAVE BEEN TOO
STRINGENT ON THE WIND SIDE OF THE CRITERIA WHEN WIND CHILLS HAVE
BEEN GETTING CLOSER TO WARNING LEVELS.

KEPT WITH VERY COLD AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS FALLING -20 TO -25F. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS BASICALLY OVERHEAD...AND 850MB TEMPS -23 TO
-25C...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES.

OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR ALL OF UPPER MI. OPTED FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ONCE AGAIN LIMITED THE LES
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE AT MOST GIVEN THE ICE COVER OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SNOW POTENTIAL IS BECOMING LESS IMPRESSIVE
SUNDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH FARTHER N
THAN S WI.

AS NOTED FROM PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... FEBRUARY 2015 IS A
LOCK TO BREAK LAST YEAR/S RECORD COLD FEBRUARY. THROUGH THE
22ND...THE AVERAGE TEMP THIS MONTH HAS BEEN 2.9 DEGREES. PERFORMING
A ROUGH CALCULATION BASED OFF THE FORECAST DATA...WE SHOULD END UP
RIGHT AROUND 2.5 DEGREES FOR THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH AT
NWS MARQUETTE. THAT WOULD BEAT THE RECORD OF 5.6 DEGREES SET JUST
LAST YEAR. AT OTHER SITES WITH LONGER PERIODS OF RECORD...THIS
FEBRUARY WILL LIKELY END UP AS A TOP 5 OR TOP 10 COLDEST FEBRUARY.
MANY SITES HAVE 1936 AS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...WHICH AT
IRONWOOD EVEN ENDED UP WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO
(ALMOST 4 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS MONTH).
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN AREA OF -SN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDIITONS FOR SAW/IWD AND IFR AT CMX.
THE PERSISTENT IFR VSBYS WITH FALLING -SN AND SOME BLSN WHIPPED UP
BY GUSTY SW WINDS AT CMX WILL IS DUE TO THE CLOSER TRACK OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHRTWV AND DEEPER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONGER
DYNAMIC FORCING THIS MORNING...A REINFORCING DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHSN/GUSTY NW WINDS/BLSN
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND CAA THAT
SHARPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WILL
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES...THE BLSN AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBYS AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME
UNTIL THE EVNG...WHEN LARGER SCALE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPRESSES THE LES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SOUTHWEST GALES AROUND 35 KTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN LAKE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20KTS. ICE COVER IS EXTENSIVE...SO FREEZING SPRAY
IS NOT A PROBLEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263-264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

 956 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIP IS OVER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW EXCEPTIONS WITH A REPORT OR TWO
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BEING SQUEEZED OUT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LOOK FOR
THAT TO SHUT OFF AS THE LAYER DRIES OUT THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOK FOR THINNING OF CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THE MORNING FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY
WORDING AND ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. LOOK FOR TEMPS TODAY TO SLOWLY
CLIMB WITH MOST OF OUR W/NW STRUGGLING TO REACH 32-34 DEGREES. THE
REST OF THE AREA E/SE HALF WILL SLOWLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THIS LOOKS
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ELEMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN
CHANGED...BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED OFF THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE 2-4 INCHES WILL COVER THE MAIN AXIS...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE A BIT MORE...POSSIBLY CLOSER
TO 6 INCHES. THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WILL TRY AND IRON THESE
DETAILS OUT. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH
TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MORE SPECIFICS ON
THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE NEXT FORECAST. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT TAF SITES THIS
MORNING.  THAT SAID...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR...AND VFR FLIGHT STATUSES
ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS CEILINGS VARY
ACROSS THE REGION.  THESE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  PRECIPITATION WILL RE-ENTER
THE FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR (KGLH...KGWO...AND
KGTR)...BUT MORE OF A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT
SITES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR (KHKS...KJAN...AND
KMEI).  THESE SCENARIOS WILL OBVIOUSLY RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATION
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...AND TARMACS.  WINDS
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING TO SEE PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POPPING UP ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL/EAST
AND SOUTH SECTIONS THIS MORNING AS HRRR IS STILL INDICATING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING IN THESE AREAS UNTIL MID MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
EXISTING ICE PROBLEMS CONTINUING A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE OVER AREAS THAT HAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS. COOLING
DUE TO MELTING...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A RATHER CHILLY DAY.

MOVING INTO TONIGHT EMPHASIS QUICKLY SWITCHES TO NEXT LOOMING EVENT
ON THE HORIZON. 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY MOVE PHASING
COLD CORE LOW...PRESENTLY OVER AZ...EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MORE PRECIP TO BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD CORE. MAY INITIALLY
HAVE TO PUT UP WITH SOME MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
SW SECTIONS AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS
WHEN PRECIP BEGINS.

AS THE COLD CORE NEARS THE AREA...COOLING IN THE COLUMN WILL
INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. IMPRESSIVE SNOW SOUNDINGS SEEN IN THE EC AND NAM
BUFR DATA...WITH MORE OF A MIXED BAG OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ADIABATIC FORCING AND WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS. SOME DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 6-7C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS. MAY SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATCH...BUT ADD A FEW EXTRA
COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTED AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE CENTRAL SECTIONS THAT OBSERVE THE MIXED BAG WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ENDING AS THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THINGS FINALLY WILL QUIET
DOWN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AT LEAST IN THE MID TERM. BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHICH WILL MAINLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S IN
THE SOUTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH OF
THE MODELS INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  31  35  29 /   3  45 100  34
MERIDIAN      41  31  37  30 /   4  32 100  42
VICKSBURG     35  31  35  30 /   3  56 100  28
HATTIESBURG   44  35  41  32 /   4  48 100  36
NATCHEZ       37  30  36  31 /   3  68 100  26
GREENVILLE    33  30  33  27 /   0  30  97  27
GREENWOOD     35  29  33  27 /   0  23  97  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>045.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/19/





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 437 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING TO SEE PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POPPING UP ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL/EAST
AND SOUTH SECTIONS THIS MORNING AS HRRR IS STILL INDICATING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING IN THESE AREAS UNTIL MID MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
EXISTING ICE PROBLEMS CONTINUING A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE OVER AREAS THAT HAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS. COOLING
DUE TO MELTING...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A RATHER CHILLY DAY.

MOVING INTO TONIGHT EMPHASIS QUICKLY SWITCHES TO NEXT LOOMING EVENT
ON THE HORIZON. 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY MOVE PHASING
COLD CORE LOW...PRESENTLY OVER AZ...EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MORE PRECIP TO BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD CORE. MAY INITIALLY
HAVE TO PUT UP WITH SOME MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
SW SECTIONS AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS
WHEN PRECIP BEGINS.

AS THE COLD CORE NEARS THE AREA...COOLING IN THE COLUMN WILL
INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. IMPRESSIVE SNOW SOUNDINGS SEEN IN THE EC AND NAM
BUFR DATA...WITH MORE OF A MIXED BAG OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ADIABATIC FORCING AND WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS. SOME DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 6-7C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS. MAY SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATCH...BUT ADD A FEW EXTRA
COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTED AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE CENTRAL SECTIONS THAT OBSERVE THE MIXED BAG WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ENDING AS THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THINGS FINALLY WILL QUIET
DOWN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AT LEAST IN THE MID TERM. BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHICH WILL MAINLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S IN
THE SOUTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH OF
THE MODELS INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
/15/

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE SEEN AT JAN/HKS/MEI
UNTIL 15Z. IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT THESE SITES AS
WELL AS HBG...BUT RISE TO MVFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS THEREAFTER. VFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE AT GLH/GWO/GTR./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  31  35  29 /  19  45 100  34
MERIDIAN      41  31  37  30 /  24  32 100  42
VICKSBURG     35  31  35  30 /  13  56 100  28
HATTIESBURG   44  35  41  32 /  35  48 100  36
NATCHEZ       37  30  36  31 /  28  68 100  26
GREENVILLE    33  30  33  27 /   7  30  97  27
GREENWOOD     35  29  33  27 /  10  23  97  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ038-
     039-043>062.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>045.

LA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LAZ023>026.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

GARRETT/15/






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1100 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN....

PERIODS OF HIGH LIQUID-TO-FROZEN RATIO SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY ACCOMPANYING A SPEED MAX
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE AT
850MB.  SNOWFALL REPORTS VARY FROM COUNTY TO COUNTY DUE TO THE
NATURE OF THE SNOW BUT A GENERAL HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES HAS BEEN
THE RULE SO FAR...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS  IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT.  THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES PER MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS
AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DCVA AND 60-90M HEIGHT FALLS IS
ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  IR IMAGERY AND MIXED PHASE
PRODUCTS SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
THAT LINES UP WELL WITH THE BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER SNOW ON
RADAR...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE US HWY 1 CORRIDOR.  THERE IS A BAND
OF PRECIP BACK TOWARD COLUMBIA SC THAT SHOULD BE THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP THAT CLIPS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OF NOTE IS SOME STRONG FGEN FROM 925-
850MB AND NEGATIVE EPV ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHICH MAY BE LEADING
TO SOME CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY ABOVE THE COLD DOME AND
EXPLAIN SOME OF THE BANDING ON RADAR. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT A
CHANGEOVER IN THE AREA FROM KFAY TO KGSB AND SOUTHEAST...AND DUAL
POL (CC) DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW THIS.  NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
THIS MORNING AND WILL REEVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CANCELING EARLY
IN THE WEST AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONVERGING TOWARD A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM FOR MOST OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN...AND POSSIBLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WED NIGHT.

BRIEF S/W RIDGING AND INFLUENCE OF LINGERING AND SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED/MODIFIED (1015-1020 MB) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
A CLEAR START TO THE DAY WED...BUT WITH INCREASING AND CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SW US THAT WILL DEAMPLIFY/SHEAR EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BY WED NIGHT. THE THICKENING CLOUDS
WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES SHY OF FULL SUN VALUES...WITH MOSTLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED.

THE APPROACH OF THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN NORTHERN
GOM CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THEN EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WED EVE AND OFF THE SE US
COAST BY THU EARLY THU. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...
BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS VALUES HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE FAVORED 00Z ECMWF...
WHICH FITS RIGHT IN THE THE MIDDLE OF A MULTI-MODEL AND RUN ENSEMBLE
CONSENSU...WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FROM MEB TO FAY TO GSB AND POINTS SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EVEN THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH.

TWO THINGS JUMP OUT WITH THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. THE FIRST IS
THE PARENT COLD HIGH...AN ARCTIC ONE AROUND 1045 MB...WILL BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA - WELL WEST OF AN IDEAL POSITION FOR
A BIG WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL NC. THE SECOND...HOWEVER...IS THAT
THE PRECEDING ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED BY WED NIGHT...MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH...WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT AROUND OR JUST BELOW 32 DEGREES.
AND IN FACT...PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INVOF AND NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 64 ARE IN THE RANGE TYPICAL OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS
OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW...BASED ON AN EXTENSIVE WINTER
WEATHER DATABASE CHAMPIONED BY KERMIT KEETER. WHILE QPF FROM THE
FAVORED 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH RANGES FROM TWO OR THREE TENTHS
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO FIVE OR SIX TENTHS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WOULD NOT SUPPORT SNOW TOTALS QUITE THAT
HIGH...THEY WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW - MOST
LIKELY INVOF US HIGHWAY 64 WHERE THE RELATIVE HIGHEST QPF WILL
OVERLAP WITH PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES/PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC.

AFTER LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH TO DRIZZLE
SOUTH...OWING TO A LOSS OF SATURATION ALOFT/IN THE ICE NUCLEATION
ZONE...SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY THU. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CAUSE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO SPILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES. COLDER AND PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC FRI INTO SAT... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SUN INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS LATER ON SATURDAY... AND IN SITU CAD
IS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT PRECIP MOVING IN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. FRONT LOOKS TO PROGRESS IN TO
THE AREA MONDAY... POTENTIALLY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT. SECOND WAVE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT... AND WOULD BRING ANOTHER CAD EVENT FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...

24HR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KFAY WHERE SNOW
COULD MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH
INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS IFR WITHIN THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KFAY AND
KRWI. THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z-20Z IN THE WEST TO
00-03Z IN THE EAST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX
LIKELY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BU FRIDAY AS CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
024>028-040>043-076>078-085-086-088-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL



YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

 








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 904 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST POPS UP EVERYWHERE
WITH AREA RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING INITIAL BAND MOVG THROUGH SE WI AND
SECONDARY AREA SWINGING SE FROM KARX AREA. SOME DECENT RETURNS
WITH KARX VSBY DOWN TO 2SM. STILL LOOKING AT MINOR ACCUMS...FEW
TENTHS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE LIKELY WORDING FOR A PERIOD OF -SN THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. IMPRESSIVE LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OF 20 UNITS EXTENDS FROM THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID-LAYERS. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE A RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO
NRN MN...WHICH IS TIED TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. THIS WAVE
RIDING ON THE HEELS OF FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
WI.

FIRST WAVE SERVING TO MOISTEN MID-LEVELS WITH PATCHY -SN FALLING
ACROSS NRN WI. SECOND WAVE WL HAVE A BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND A QUARTER
INCH THIS MRNG. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDING ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG.
POTENTIAL FOR ONE HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST
CWA. WL BE LUCKY TO GET MEASUREABLE LIQUID PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CWA.

DESPITE LOSS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...ARCTIC FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI. LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH UP TO 5K
FEET...PARTIALLY IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS FRONT SLIDES THRU. HENCE KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR
POTENTIAL OF SCT -SHSN ACROSS ERN CWA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE LATE AFTN WHILE NAM HOLDS ONTO
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE EVE. FOR NOW KEPT EVENING /AFTER 00Z/
DRY.

925H TEMPS WARM TO -6 TO -8. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK. EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK
IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI TNGT ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
RETURN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS RETURNING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS IN
THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE RESULTING IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WITH
BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH BS
FROM CURRENT SNOW COVER DUE TO CRUST.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A GENEARL NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY DO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE QPF AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS MISSING THE AREA
TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH. THEY
ALSO SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE BELOW AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION. DELTA T VALUES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE...THOUGH DECENT ICE
COVERAGE ON THE LAKE MAY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HANGING ON IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY CHANGE 500 MB FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL LOOK FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THEY BRING A SHOT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. COLD
FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. MORE COLD AIR LOOKS ON TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH IN THE REGION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ENOUGH FORCING AS DESCRIBED ABOVE TO WARRANT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT ERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG. WL DROP TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS AREAS OF -SN MOVE THRU. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
-SHSN IN THE AFTN WITH CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND MVFR LEVELS.
EXPECT TREND TOWARD VFR IN THE LATE AFTN OR EVE. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MRNG.

MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM MONDAY SHOWED WIDESPREAD
ICE COVER FROM THE SHORE EXTENDING OUT TO AROUND 10 MILES INTO
LAKE MI. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...HOWEVER AIR TEMPS REMAINED
QUITE COLD. TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS
TONIGHT.

THINKING A FEW AREAS OF OPEN WATER MAY FORM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH COLD
TEMPS...WITH SOME ABATEMENT THIS AFTN AND EVE AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 20S. A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING TO GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 526 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-SN CHANCES THIS MORNING...
TEMPERATURES TRENDS AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST SHORES OF
HUDSONS BAY WITH A TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SD. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/
FRONT WAS PUSHING WARMER AIR ACROSS MN/IA/WI...WITH TEMPS CONTINUING
TO RISE EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SECONDARY/NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WAS NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER. FORCING/LIFT
WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST WAS
TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW INTO NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS FIGHTING
SOME RATHER DRY AIR IN THE 850-600MB LAYER. SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN 1/4 OF MN.

24.00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS QUITE
SIMILAR AS RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THE NEXT IN LINE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER BY 12Z WED. TREND FAVORS
FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TODAY AND
STRONGER OF EARLIER RUNS WITH THE ENERGY DROPPING TOWARD ND LATE
TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVES AND THEIR FORCING/LIFT MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST PAST THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...AS DOES THE
SFC/LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AND QG/FN CONVERGENCE WITH IT. GIVEN THE FAST
SPEED OF THE FORCING...AND IT STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME THE DRY 850-
600MB LAYER...HAVE LOWER MOST -SN CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF I-94 AND
LIMITED THEM TO MAINLY BEFORE 18Z. THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT DRY AS LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LEAD TROUGH/WARM FRONT SLIDES INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
WITH THE COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW THRU THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
WARM WEDGE BETWEEN THE 2 FRONTS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TEMPS ALREADY AROUND 30F
WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA TODAY CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD. STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE TO WINDS BRISK/GUSTY AS
THEY SWING TO THE NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY. STRONGER OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION/COOLING SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR...SUB-ZERO LOWS TONIGHT...
DROPPING ACROSS THE WI PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA WED...COLD TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

24.00Z MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A COMPROMISE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEAR THE ND/CAN BORDER WED MORNING DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD IA/MO WED/
WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THU/THU NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST UNDER IT.
FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS GENERALLY GOOD.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARD WESTERN IA WED THEN NORTHERN MO
WED NIGHT GENERATES MORE DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT AS IT PASSES. BULK OF
THIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA BUT DOES CLIP MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST IA PORTION OF IT. ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND STRONGER 850-500MB QG CONVERGENCE SIGNAL ACCOMPANY THIS
WAVE...ALSO CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...
MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THIS FORCING/LIFT IS ONCE AGAIN
BATTLING DRY AIR IN THE 900-700MB LAYER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF
THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CAN-GEM
THE MOST ROBUST WITH SATURATION AND SNOW INTO THE FCST AREA WED
WHILE GFS AND HI-RES NMM/ARW TEND TO KEEP ANY SNOW WED/WED EVENING
OUT OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL -SN CHANCE
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST IA PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WED...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...WED
NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT DOMINATED BY THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH AND ITS COLD
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS OF -13C TO -16C ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AT 00Z THU COOL TO AROUND -19C TO -20C FOR THU NIGHT.
850MB TEMPS FOR THE SAME TIME TRENDING 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT TO CONTINUE THE TREND OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE/VE SEEN MUCH OF FEB. MAY YET NEED MORE
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO
TEMPS AND NORTH WINDS OF 5-10MPH. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS/DECOUPLING
THU NIGHT LOWS COULD BE MUCH COLDER IN SHELTERED LOW LAYING AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SAT NIGHT/SUN...
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 24.00Z CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN
SHIFT DURING THE FRI-MON PERIOD...TOWARD MORE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND RISING HGTS OVER EASTERN NOAM. SURPRISINGLY GOOD
BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FRI INTO SUN...AT LEAST
WITH THE LONGER WAVE FEATURES. PLENTY OF LONGWAVE AND SHORTWAVE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY LATER SUN AND MON...BUT THIS NOT UNEXPECTED
WITH A POTENTIAL PATTERN TRANSITION IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE FRI THRU MON PERIOD.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FRI/FRI NIGHT...WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND SLOW MODERATION TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. HGTS CONTINUE TO
RISE SAT AS TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. BY SAT NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE WESTERN TROUGHING AND TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA. PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS...SFC FEATURE POSITIONS AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE FLOW TO AID IN LIFTING. LATEST TREND/CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE/GREATER LIFT...AND SNOW CHANCES SAT
NIGHT/SUN MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. UNTIL THE DETAILS
SETTLE DOWN...SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE /HIGHEST
SOUTH/ FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN APPEAR REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND LOOKING TO COME OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR RETURN MONDAY HOWEVER THIS HIGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF PACIFIC/WESTERN CAN ORIGIN VS. ARCTIC. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON APPEARS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE WARM FRONT WAS STARTING TO APPROACH BOTH TAF SITES FROM THE
WEST...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND THE GUSTS TO
CALM DOWN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE WEST AND WILL ALSO SEE THE CEILINGS COME DOWN TO
EITHER MVFR OR LOW VFR. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE 24.08Z HRRR
INDICATES THIS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHORT
WINDOW OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
EITHER IFR OR MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE SNOW
WORKS INTO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...WILL ONLY TAKE THE VISIBILITY
DOWN TO MVFR. THE SNOW SHOULD END AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
AND SWINGS THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 24.06Z NAM SHOWS
GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND THEN
LOOK FOR THE GUSTS TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH THE SUSTAINED
SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM...RRS
AVIATION...04




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KEY WEST FL

 300 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH ZONAL FLOW REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...WITH 75 KNOT WESTERLIES AT 250 MB ACROSS THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...AS OF 200
PM...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
COMBINED WITH ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON IR IMAGERY DETAILS A WEAKENED
1025 MB COLD HIGH CENTER NEAR THE 40N 70W METEOROLOGICAL BENCHMARK.
CLOSER TO THE KEYS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE...THERE IS
A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA TO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THENCE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS FRONT SEPARATES MILD TO WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR FROM A COLD
AND DAMP AIRMASS.

.CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS
WITH MORE DENSE FOG STILL OVER GMZ033-034. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF ARE VARIABLE NEAR 5 KNOTS...AND OVER THE ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE MIXED INDICATIONS THAT
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND SUNSET...WHICH WILL DRAG THE
AREAS OF FOG BACK SOUTHWARD. THE MESOSCALE HRRR SEEMS TO BE MORE VARIABLE
WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...
BUT BASED ON THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS FOG BANK TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH
OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND CLOSENESS TO FLORIDA BAY...THE FOG BANK
WILL NEED LITTLE MOVEMENT TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE KEYS AFTER SUNSET. FOR
NOW WILL INDICATE THAT AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS
AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS INSIDE THE 5 FATHOM LINE. WILL LEAVE THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS GMZ033 AND GMZ034.

THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS AND INCREASE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WHICH WILL LIFT THE FOG. DURING WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO MODERATE...AND
FRESH SOUTH WINDS ARE INDICATED AS LOWER PRESSURE DEEPENS EAST OF FLORIDA.
THEREAFTER...HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
NEVER GETS TO THE KEYS. LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH INCREASED LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL PROMPT MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDER AS WELL. THE SURFACE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO PULL THROUGH DURING FRIDAY
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL INDICATED AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARBY.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN
IS INDICATED AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GENERATE FRESH EAST
BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING GIVEN THE NEAR SURFACE FLUXES. TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70 WILL BE HELD IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR GMZ033-034 THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS GMZ031-032-35 THIS EVENING AS THE FOG BANK IS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE KEYS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED ON THE EVENING SHIFT.
THE NEXT HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR SCEC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF...THEN WINDS AND SEAS LET DOWN UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&
.AVIATION... LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR...OR EVEN BRIEF IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATER IN THE EVENING THANKS TO LIGHT BREEZES AND THE RESIDENT
MOIST AIRMASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED PICK UP A MORE DEFINITE EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE
DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 53 DEGREES WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST.
THIS IS A LONG-STANDING RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 24 IN KEY WEST.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  68  80  74  81 / -  10 10 40
MARATHON  68  82  74  83 / -  10 10 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ033-034.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1239 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH AROUND NOON
TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN QUITE CLEARLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...MODIFIED THE
GRIDS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES...QPF...SNOWFALL AMTS...AND
WEATHER TYPE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM TODAY. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER AND GRID UPDATES. WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SNOW HAS MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA AND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS THE SNOW IS HAVING IN FLOYD AND
PIKE COUNTIES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND GRAPHICAL NOWCAST
HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND ANY IMPACTS IT MAY
BE HAVING. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN GOING
ON IN SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FLOYD COUNTY. THE SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING HARD ENOUGH IN THOSE TWO AREAS TO ACCUMULATE ON
AREA ROADWAYS. THE SPS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCAST THAT WERE MENTIONED
BEFORE ARE ADDRESSING THOSE ISSUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TN/VA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE JUST
MADE UPDATES FOR OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 427 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE AS MESONET SITES AT WHITLEY CITY AND
BARBOURVILLE ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND PICTURE ON
SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING A DUSTING IN BARBOURVILLE THIS MORNING. ALSO
MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO ARE BOTH REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THIS
HOUR. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING SO
LEANED TOWARD IT TO GET A BETTER POP TREND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS
LIGHT IN NATURE AT THIS POINT THINK THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND SPS
PLACEMENT WILL HANDLE THIS. THAT SAID DID UPDATE POPS/QPF/SNOW TO
HANDLE THESE REPORTS AND ALSO UPDATED WITH LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS IS LIGHT IN NATURE THIS MORNING AS DRYER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID DO STILL THINK THE
AIR MASS RIGHT ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
MOISTENING UP THIS MORNING. STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN TN VALLEY AND
NE TN ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING WHERE
AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED. OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDED WEST IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE OTHER MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
THE TIER OF COUNTIES NEAR THE VA BORDER. ALSO SHOULD MENTION THE
HRRR HAS CONTINUED TO PAINT LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SAME REGION
OF CONCERN. STILL OPTED TO ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM THINK ADVISORY LOCATIONS STILL SEEM REASONABLE WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE SHARP CUTOFF ON
MUCH OF EASTERN KY WILL IN FACT NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
SYSTEM BESIDES CLOUD COVER. MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK FRONT WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY FLURRIES AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW LATE...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS NEXT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WHILE ALSO ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS
POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER TOT HE EAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
AREA...ALLOWING THESE FEATURES TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRINGS PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN KY AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGING ARCTIC AIR AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW...WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
MORE DRY ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EURO AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM
BEING INDICATIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO
KEEPS POPS IN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED AS
WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE
SOUTH AS SOME TEMPS THERE COULD GET INTO THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW GENERALLY WENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND THOSE WERE IN THE FAR EAST AS THAT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BY THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AND MOVES FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
AREA WILL THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH THIS...WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPS BEING THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THIS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE ALLOWS ALOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THE SUPER BLEND
CAME IN WITH HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF SITES WILL BE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SCATTER OUT FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA. THE TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 2.5K FROM 10Z ONWARD...AND PERHAPS EVEN
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST...NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ087-
088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1214 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM N
CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND
A RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE NW CONUS. WAA AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO FAR NRN MN
SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH VSBY GENERALLY IN
THE 1-3SM RANGE. ANOTHER COMPACT UPSTREAM SHRTWV OR PV ANOMALY WAS
LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO ERN MN WERE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO...GREATEST FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE ERN
CWA...IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT. SNOW MAY ALSO INCREASE THIS
MORNING OVER THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AND SHRTWV MOVE THROUGH WITH A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONV. ALTHOUGH THE WRN LAKE IS MOSTLY
FROZEN THERE MAY BE ENOUGH GAPS IN THE ICE COVER FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAT/MOISTURE TO BOOST THE SNOW. 230 SW FLOW OFF OF NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL LES MAINLY E OF THE CWA. BY THIS
AFTERNON...THE NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
SNOW INTO CNTRL UPPER MI FOR A FEW HOURS GIVEN THE FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES AS A -30C 700 MB COLD POOL
MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SHRTWV AS WINDS
VEER TO THE NW AND CAA DROPS 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -23C TO -27C
RANGE. THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WILL SIGNFICANTLY REDUCE ANY LES
POTENTIAL BUT WITH THE RECENT STRONG WINDS A FEW MORE GAPS COULD
ALLOW SOME BANDS TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LONGER FETCH INTO THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
DOWN TO -7F TO -14F WITH WIND CHILL VALUES TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
OF -25. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NEAR 5 MPH
IN THE COLDEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

WITH AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES...WITH THE
MOVING/BREAKING ICE HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHAT WE AREA ABLE
TO GET IN OUR NW TO W FLOW THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A
FEW STREAMERS OF LES OFF OPEN AREAS...IMPACTING PRIMARILY ALGER AND
N LUCE COUNTIES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOW TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILLS AGAIN. INCLUDED IN THE HWO THE MENTION
OF WIND CHILL READINGS OF 20 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE TIME OF NEAR CRITICAL WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAY NOT HOIST WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE PERIODS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS WINDS MAY NOT
GET TO THE 10MPH OR GREATER THRESHOLD. GENERALLY WE HAVE BEEN TOO
STRINGENT ON THE WIND SIDE OF THE CRITERIA WHEN WIND CHILLS HAVE
BEEN GETTING CLOSER TO WARNING LEVELS.

KEPT WITH VERY COLD AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS FALLING -20 TO -25F. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS BASICALLY OVERHEAD...AND 850MB TEMPS -23 TO
-25C...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES.

OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR ALL OF UPPER MI. OPTED FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ONCE AGAIN LIMITED THE LES
POTENTIAL TO CHANCE AT MOST GIVEN THE ICE COVER OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SNOW POTENTIAL IS BECOMING LESS IMPRESSIVE
SUNDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH FARTHER N
THAN S WI.

AS NOTED FROM PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... FEBRUARY 2015 IS A
LOCK TO BREAK LAST YEAR/S RECORD COLD FEBRUARY. THROUGH THE
22ND...THE AVERAGE TEMP THIS MONTH HAS BEEN 2.9 DEGREES. PERFORMING
A ROUGH CALCULATION BASED OFF THE FORECAST DATA...WE SHOULD END UP
RIGHT AROUND 2.5 DEGREES FOR THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH AT
NWS MARQUETTE. THAT WOULD BEAT THE RECORD OF 5.6 DEGREES SET JUST
LAST YEAR. AT OTHER SITES WITH LONGER PERIODS OF RECORD...THIS
FEBRUARY WILL LIKELY END UP AS A TOP 5 OR TOP 10 COLDEST FEBRUARY.
MANY SITES HAVE 1936 AS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...WHICH AT
IRONWOOD EVEN ENDED UP WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO
(ALMOST 4 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS MONTH).
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A REINFORCING DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHSN/GUSTY NW WINDS/BLSN IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND CAA THAT SHARPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES...THE BLSN AT
THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBYS AT
LEAST PART OF THE TIME UNTIL THE EVNG...WHEN LARGER SCALE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPRESSES THE LES OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. CONDITIONS AT SAW WILL STAY MVFR FOR THE PERIOD
AND IWD WILL GO FROM MVFR TO VFR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SOUTHWEST GALES AROUND 35 KTS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN LAKE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20KTS. ICE COVER IS EXTENSIVE...SO FREEZING SPRAY
IS NOT A PROBLEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

 405 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BRINGING
A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
THE PARENT LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH THE FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO NEAR CHICAGO
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOW SHIFTING JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN
AS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADAR BY A BAND OF SNOW. THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND REGIONAL
GEM MODEL BRING IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ALONG
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND 7PM SHIFTING EAST TO
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD PICK UP A FRESH HALF TO ONE INCH
OVERNIGHT SOME UPSLOPING ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO THE BOSTON
HILLS AND OVER THE TUG HILL COULD BRING UP TO TWO INCHES. THE COLD
AIR MASS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SNOW RATIO OVERNIGHT NEAR 20:1.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG IN THE TEENS TONIGHT
THEN DROP TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTY. THE COLDER WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE 270-280 FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THE SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTY ACROSS THE TUG HILL. THE LIMITED PERIOD OF
ENHANCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP TO 10KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
PRESENT ICE COVER AND SLUSH OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD
KEEP SNOW TOTALS LIMITED TO THE 3-6 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS THE TUG HILL. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO COVER FOR THIS SNOW BAND. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BY THIS TIME WE SHOULD KNOW HOW MUCH ICE ON THE LAKE WILL
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT PATCHES BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE ICE COVERAGE.
TYPICALLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS ON LAKE ERIE THESE BREAKS ARE AMPLE FOR
A LAKE RESPONSE...WHICH CAN OFTEN BE UNDERDONE BY MODEL QPF
DEPENDING ON THE ICE COVERAGE IN THE MODEL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL PUSH WHATEVER
LAKE EFFECT BAND THERE IS QUICKLY SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OSWEGO COUNTY STILL COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE BAND SHIFTS SOUTH AND BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED.
THIS LESS ORGANIZED BAND MAY BRING AN INCH SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
FROM WEAK MULTIPLE BANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH
WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO ALL AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
(THINK DUSTING). THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LIMITED
OPEN WATERS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING AN INCH OR TWO ON THURSDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RIDGE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST WHICH WILL LIFT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE WEAK FLOW...LAKE ICE...AND LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NIGHTTIME LOWS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL VARY BASED ON SYNOPTIC
AND MESOSCALE FEATURES. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN AREAS WHICH DO CLEAR OUT. THIS UNCERTAINTY
ASIDE...THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT IT WILL BE COLD....WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LARGELY BE BELOW ZERO...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE MINUS
TEENS OR COLDER IN INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES IS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SKIES ARE MOST
LIKELY TO CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH WITH TIME. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX ON SUNDAY WITH A SPLIT FLOW WHERE
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO BE ACTIVE ONE FOR OUR
REGION...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO FORECAST PHASING
BETWEEN THE TWO BRANCHES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVEN IF THEY
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH AN INITIAL WAVE (SUNDAY NIGHT)
AND INSTEAD KEYS ON A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR FUTURE MODEL SHIFTS...BUT THIS TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE IT TRACKS THE SUNDAY SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
YIELDS A COLDER SOLUTION. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS AN ALL SNOW...BUT
LIGHTER EVENT...ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS WORTH NOTING THE GGEM HAS
SHIFTED SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT MISSES...BUT WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
STILL BRINGING SOME SNOW WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...BUT GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE TOWARD OUR REGION LATE
TUESDAY. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VIS. BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN AND
AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING BY 12Z WITH AN EXCEPTION OF
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
BETWEEN KART AND KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SUNDAY...MVFR IN LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS PUSHING TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR OPEN WATER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  44.3        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  42.7        1910
            5  41.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)



---IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 7 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         8          1934
         7          1963
         7          1875
         7          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 14 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        15          1993
        15          1979
        14          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
         LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
         FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 304 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN....

PERIODS OF HIGH LIQUID-TO-FROZEN RATIO SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY ACCOMPANYING A SPEED MAX
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE AT
850MB.  SNOWFALL REPORTS VARY FROM COUNTY TO COUNTY DUE TO THE
NATURE OF THE SNOW BUT A GENERAL HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES HAS BEEN
THE RULE SO FAR...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS  IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT.  THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES PER MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS
AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DCVA AND 60-90M HEIGHT FALLS IS
ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  IR IMAGERY AND MIXED PHASE
PRODUCTS SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
THAT LINES UP WELL WITH THE BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER SNOW ON
RADAR...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE US HWY 1 CORRIDOR.  THERE IS A BAND
OF PRECIP BACK TOWARD COLUMBIA SC THAT SHOULD BE THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP THAT CLIPS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OF NOTE IS SOME STRONG FGEN FROM 925-
850MB AND NEGATIVE EPV ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHICH MAY BE LEADING
TO SOME CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY ABOVE THE COLD DOME AND
EXPLAIN SOME OF THE BANDING ON RADAR. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT A
CHANGEOVER IN THE AREA FROM KFAY TO KGSB AND SOUTHEAST...AND DUAL
POL (CC) DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW THIS.  NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
THIS MORNING AND WILL REEVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CANCELING EARLY
IN THE WEST AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM FOR MOST OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN...AND POSSIBLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF MOVES NE THROUGH NORTHERN FL AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW GUIDANCE AND RANGE IN THE LOWER 40S BUT COULD BE SUPPRESSED
EVEN FURTHER BY SNOW COVER AND MELTING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND SUNSET OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NC OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
FAVORED GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...OR POSSIBLY SLEET FROM MEB TO FAY TO GSB AND POINTS SOUTH.

THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND IT`S PROXIMITY TO THE NC COAST WILL
LARGELY IMPACT THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE NORTHERN HALF TO
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AN AXIS FROM NEAR SANFORD TO
RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS WITH 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE VA
BORDER ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE P-TYPE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL TO FREEZING. WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
SNOW. ACROSS THE SOUTH THE LOW WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING...WHICH
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT OF P-TYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...HOWEVER THE EXACT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION AND P-
TYPES IN THE SOUTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST BUT THE SNOW THREAT SHOULD ABATE QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY RAIN WHICH COULD FALL AS A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE NW DURING THE DAY AS HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

AS THE COASTAL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER WEATHER LIFTS UP THE
EAST ATLANTIC...A 1040 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
EXTENSIVE AND THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...AS THE COLD AIR
SURGE COMMENCES AND IS AIDED BY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDINESS WILL BE EXTENSIVE AND AFTER A
MORNING LOW IN THE LOWER 20S...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40.

THE CAD PROCESS CONTINUES WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ON
SATURDAY. AIDED BY BY ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE CONTINUED VERY FAST
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AOLFT..THERE COULD YET BE LINGERING LIGHT
FLURRIES IN THE FOOTHILLS OR FAR WEST PIEDMONT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE COOLER...STILL WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40.
AS WE OFTEN SEE IN STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST INDUCES AN INVERTED TROF...WHICH IN
TURN BEGINS TO INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
COLD DOME BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BE INTRODUCING LOW CHANCE POPS
INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/ICY STUFF...IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IF IT
COMMENCES EARLY ENOUGH. WILL HAVE POPS RAMPING UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE
RIDGING WEAKENS AND OVERNIGHT MINS HOLD IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW A RICH GULF TAP...ENSURING
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT PRESENT MODELS KEEP THE
EAST COAST IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS...BUT
IT DOES RESEMBLE AN IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT WHICH WOULD SHAVE 10
DEGREES (OR MORE) OFF HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

24HR TAF PERIOD: THE BROAD ARE OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN P-TYPE REMAINS SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER KFAY HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MIX
(LIGHTLY SNOW/SLEET/SOME FREEZING RAIN). EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS WITH INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS
IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. CIGS MAY LIFT SOME OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX
LIKELY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AS CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
024>028-040>043-076>078-085-086-088-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KRD/CBL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1234 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN....

PERIODS OF HIGH LIQUID-TO-FROZEN RATIO SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY ACCOMPANYING A SPEED MAX
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE AT
850MB.  SNOWFALL REPORTS VARY FROM COUNTY TO COUNTY DUE TO THE
NATURE OF THE SNOW BUT A GENERAL HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES HAS BEEN
THE RULE SO FAR...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS  IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT.  THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES PER MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS
AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DCVA AND 60-90M HEIGHT FALLS IS
ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  IR IMAGERY AND MIXED PHASE
PRODUCTS SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
THAT LINES UP WELL WITH THE BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER SNOW ON
RADAR...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE US HWY 1 CORRIDOR.  THERE IS A BAND
OF PRECIP BACK TOWARD COLUMBIA SC THAT SHOULD BE THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP THAT CLIPS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OF NOTE IS SOME STRONG FGEN FROM 925-
850MB AND NEGATIVE EPV ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHICH MAY BE LEADING
TO SOME CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY ABOVE THE COLD DOME AND
EXPLAIN SOME OF THE BANDING ON RADAR. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT A
CHANGEOVER IN THE AREA FROM KFAY TO KGSB AND SOUTHEAST...AND DUAL
POL (CC) DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW THIS.  NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
THIS MORNING AND WILL REEVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CANCELING EARLY
IN THE WEST AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONVERGING TOWARD A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM FOR MOST OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN...AND POSSIBLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WED NIGHT.

BRIEF S/W RIDGING AND INFLUENCE OF LINGERING AND SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED/MODIFIED (1015-1020 MB) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
A CLEAR START TO THE DAY WED...BUT WITH INCREASING AND CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SW US THAT WILL DEAMPLIFY/SHEAR EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BY WED NIGHT. THE THICKENING CLOUDS
WILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES SHY OF FULL SUN VALUES...WITH MOSTLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED.

THE APPROACH OF THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN NORTHERN
GOM CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THEN EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WED EVE AND OFF THE SE US
COAST BY THU EARLY THU. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...
BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS VALUES HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE FAVORED 00Z ECMWF...
WHICH FITS RIGHT IN THE THE MIDDLE OF A MULTI-MODEL AND RUN ENSEMBLE
CONSENSU...WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FROM MEB TO FAY TO GSB AND POINTS SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EVEN THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH.

TWO THINGS JUMP OUT WITH THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. THE FIRST IS
THE PARENT COLD HIGH...AN ARCTIC ONE AROUND 1045 MB...WILL BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA - WELL WEST OF AN IDEAL POSITION FOR
A BIG WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL NC. THE SECOND...HOWEVER...IS THAT
THE PRECEDING ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED BY WED NIGHT...MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH...WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT AROUND OR JUST BELOW 32 DEGREES.
AND IN FACT...PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INVOF AND NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 64 ARE IN THE RANGE TYPICAL OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS
OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW...BASED ON AN EXTENSIVE WINTER
WEATHER DATABASE CHAMPIONED BY KERMIT KEETER. WHILE QPF FROM THE
FAVORED 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH RANGES FROM TWO OR THREE TENTHS
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO FIVE OR SIX TENTHS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WOULD NOT SUPPORT SNOW TOTALS QUITE THAT
HIGH...THEY WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW - MOST
LIKELY INVOF US HIGHWAY 64 WHERE THE RELATIVE HIGHEST QPF WILL
OVERLAP WITH PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES/PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC.

AFTER LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH TO DRIZZLE
SOUTH...OWING TO A LOSS OF SATURATION ALOFT/IN THE ICE NUCLEATION
ZONE...SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY THU. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CAUSE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO SPILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES. COLDER AND PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC FRI INTO SAT... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SUN INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS LATER ON SATURDAY... AND IN SITU CAD
IS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT PRECIP MOVING IN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. FRONT LOOKS TO PROGRESS IN TO
THE AREA MONDAY... POTENTIALLY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT. SECOND WAVE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT... AND WOULD BRING ANOTHER CAD EVENT FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

24HR TAF PERIOD: THE BROAD ARE OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL TAPER OFF
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN P-TYPE REMAINS SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER KFAY HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MIX
(LIGHTLY SNOW/SLEET/SOME FREEZING RAIN). EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS WITH INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS
IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. CIGS MAY LIFT SOME OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX
LIKELY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AS CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
024>028-040>043-076>078-085-086-088-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...KRD/CBL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH BUT DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT AND THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE PRECIP BETWEEN
09-15Z. KCLL AND KUTS COULD GET A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW OR ICE
PELLETS BETWEEN 11-15Z AS DYNAMICAL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING
COOL THE THERMAL PROFILE TO NEAR 0 C. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

UPDATE...
A DRY...COLD AND LOW OVERCAST TUESDAY AS ENTRENCHED NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW REINFORCES THIS MOST RECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ AND SNOW (GRAINS)
DURING THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS ACROSS BRAZOS
AND WALKER COUNTIES. A SHARP TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING PRESENTS A NEW CHALLENGE UP NORTH. A QUICK HITTER...THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PULL IN COLD MID-LEVEL AIR ATOP AN ALREADY
NEAR FREEZING PROFILE. WAY UP NORTH OVER MADISON...HOUSTON...AND
TRINITY COUNTIES SOME NPW PROGS INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF HIGH
LEVEL ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. THESE CRYSTALS MAY FALL INTO A DRY
MID-LAYER. THEORETICALLY...DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THIS
LAYER SHOULD SATURATE UP AND FALL BACK TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH A
VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER...IT SHOULDN`T BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO TOTALLY MELT ICE CRYSTALS/SNOWFLAKES COMPLETELY...LEADING TO A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS. THE NAM SOLUTION IS OF FAR
NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH...
THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. THE RAP ALSO HINTS AT THIS FAR
NORTHERN COUNTY OCCURRENCE...LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS A COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN OR
SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COOL AND PARTIALLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY AS AN OVERCAST AND MORE WET MORNING IN THE MID
30S ONLY WARMS INTO THE UPPER 40S (NORTH) TO LOWER 50S (COAST).
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      41  35  51  35  55 /  20  50  50  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  36  53  37  57 /  20  50  50  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            44  43  53  44  56 /  20  50  50  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1049 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
A DRY...COLD AND LOW OVERCAST TUESDAY AS ENTRENCHED NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW REINFORCES THIS MOST RECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT FZRA/FZDZ AND SNOW (GRAINS)
DURING THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS ACROSS BRAZOS
AND WALKER COUNTIES. A SHARP TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING PRESENTS A NEW CHALLENGE UP NORTH. A QUICK HITTER...THIS
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PULL IN COLD MID-LEVEL AIR ATOP AN ALREADY
NEAR FREEZING PROFILE. WAY UP NORTH OVER MADISON...HOUSTON...AND
TRINITY COUNTIES SOME NPW PROGS INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF HIGH
LEVEL ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. THESE CRYSTALS MAY FALL INTO A DRY
MID-LAYER. THEORETICALLY...DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THIS
LAYER SHOULD SATURATE UP AND FALL BACK TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH A
VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER...IT SHOULDN`T BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO TOTALLY MELT ICE CRYSTALS/SNOWFLAKES COMPLETELY...LEADING TO A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS. THE NAM SOLUTION IS OF FAR
NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH...
THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. THE RAP ALSO HINTS AT THIS FAR
NORTHERN COUNTY OCCURRENCE...LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS A COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN OR
SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COOL AND PARTIALLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY AS AN OVERCAST AND MORE WET MORNING IN THE MID
30S ONLY WARMS INTO THE UPPER 40S (NORTH) TO LOWER 50S (COAST).
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS SHOULD ALL BE MVFR LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  LOWERING CEILINGS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MATERIALIZE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DISTURBANCE ON
TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL AREA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO -RA TO BE CARRIED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FREEZING LINE THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF COLLEGE
STATION TO CONROE AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. ASIDE
FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORT BEND
COUNTY NOT MUCH IS SHOWING ON AREA RADARS ALTHOUGH WITH THE
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE THAT WONT BE
DETECTED. WILL KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS SUB FREEZING AREAS ALTHOUGH IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT...PRIMARILY TO ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND
BRIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 9AM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVOLVES INTO A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BUT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ONLY...EVEN WITH THE COLDER NAM PROFILES. WONT TOTALLY RULE OUT
THE CHANCE TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SLEET
MIXED IN ACROSS HOUSTON OR TRINITY COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL ONLY
MENTION LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. WINDS TURN ONSHORE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PERIODS OF CAUTION OR ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE LIKELY...
AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      41  35  51  35  55 /  20  50  50  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  36  53  37  57 /  20  50  50  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            44  43  53  44  56 /  20  50  50  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31



FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM AROUND WAUTOMA TO MARINETTE AND MOVING
EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLIER TODAY AND LOCALLY DROPPED VSBYS TO A QUARTER OF A
MILE.  THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW ENTERING LAKE MICHIGAN.  OTHER
WEAKER SNOW SHOWERS EXIST RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  EXCEPT FOR THE
SNOW BELT...THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY THE START OF THE
EVENING.  WINDS ARE BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SOME OBS REACHING UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME CONCERN FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA AS WIND
DIRECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ARE FAVORABLE FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS.  THINK WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THOSE
TYPES OF GUSTS THOUGH.  PLENTY OF STRATO-CU AND SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND HEADING TOWARDS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.  WINDS/TEMPS/WIND CHILLS/AND SNOW POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  SHOULD SEE PRETTY GOOD WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER DOOR COUNTY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.  GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE PRETTY
QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING AS ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH/RETREAT
TO THE SNOWBELT AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND 10 OR 12 BELOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO 25
BELOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW ELSEWHERE.
IN COORDINATION WITH WFOS MARQUETTE AND DULUTH...WILL NOT ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WILL INSTEAD HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN A
SPS.

WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
REGION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS.  WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVERHEAD FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT NO REAL THREAT OF PRECIP THIS FAR INTO THE
ARCTIC AIR.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE MODERATING BY 9 OR 10
IN THE MORNING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  HIGHS
WILL BE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER N-C WI TO 10 TO 15 FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

PATTERN ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE
BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE AS THE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE REFORMS MORE
OVER THE PACIFIC. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL RETREAT NORTH...AND
SOMETHING RESEMBLING A SOUTHERN STREAM WILL START TO BRING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS STRETCH WILL BE EARLY ON AS A NEW
ARCTIC AIRMASS SURGES INTO THE AREA WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS SEEING THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE DEEP EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING. THIS MAY
HELP BLUNT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD
AND A PORTION OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. EACH NIGHT HAS
ISSUES THOUGH. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING RELATIVELY NEAR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THOUGH IT HAS APPEARED FOR SOME TIME
THAT IT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE HAS DRIFTED NORTH
TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER DRIFT MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD HELP ARREST THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. BUT JUST HOW LOW WE GO
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...BOTH DIFFICULT THINGS TO FORECAST AT THIS RANGE. AFTER
THESE NIGHTS...THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD ENCOURAGE
A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THOUGH WE
ARE ONLY LOOKING TO AN INCREASE TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FROM WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED AREA OF OPEN WATER ON
LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN AFTER RECENT GUSTY WINDS. THOUGH THE
WATER IS SURELY COLD...THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER AND WITH SOME
ONSHORE WIND TRAJECTORIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE VILAS COUNTY SNOW BELT AND PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY THE BIT OF MANITOWOC COUNTY THAT JUTS OUT
INTO THE LAKE AT DIFFERENT ANGLE THAN THE REST OF THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE AREA IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER A LARGE JUMP NORTH IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE YESTERDAY THE ENVELOPE HAS SETTLED BACK TO THE
SOUTH A LITTLE BIT TODAY. THOUGH AT FIRST GLANCE IT APPEARS LIKE
THE AREA MAY STILL SEE A FAIR SHOT FOR SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT...A
DEEPER INVESTIGATION REVEALED LESS POTENTIAL THAN IT FIRST SEEMED.
STILL...THE WARMER AND MOISTER ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAKES
THE IDEA OF AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY IN
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IN THIS SCENARIO...IT WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE TO EXPECT SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND TWO INCHES OR LESS. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND CUT OFF
THE SNOW. FORTUNATELY THE MORE ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO PREVENT A
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR TO CHOP DOWN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...AFTER ALL THIS TALK...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
IT IS ONLY TUESDAY. THOUGH A BROAD SCENARIO IS PRESENT IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS MODERATE TO HIGH...CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IS RELATIVELY LOW...AND COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCES ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE.
IT WOULD NOT BE WISE TO RULE OUT A SOUTHERN MISS NOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FROM A NORTHWARD DEVIATION JUST YET.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED SNOW  SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY...AND A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...DROPPING VSBYS TO A
HALF MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS TO REACH 25
TO 30 KTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.



MPC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MPC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1122 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR/RAP COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS ENTERING SRN
WI. THIS RESULTED IN SEVERAL AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRONTALLY INDUCED BAND OF SCT SHSN SHIFTING SE FROM CNTRL WI. THIS
WILL COME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS. POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE AREA MOVING
INTO NW WI AND ALL OF MN.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN WI. MORE SCT SHSN ARE
MOVING SE FROM CNTRL WI. EXPECT THESE TO SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE WAKE. SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE MOVING ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMS. NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE MID DECK ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL KEEP ANY
AFTERNOON SNOW CHANCES SW OF KMSN.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO BOOST POPS UP EVERYWHERE
WITH AREA RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING INITIAL BAND MOVG THROUGH SE WI AND
SECONDARY AREA SWINGING SE FROM KARX AREA. SOME DECENT RETURNS
WITH KARX VSBY DOWN TO 2SM. STILL LOOKING AT MINOR ACCUMS...FEW
TENTHS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE LIKELY WORDING FOR A PERIOD OF -SN THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. IMPRESSIVE LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OF 20 UNITS EXTENDS FROM THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID-LAYERS. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE A RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO
NRN MN...WHICH IS TIED TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. THIS WAVE
RIDING ON THE HEELS OF FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
WI.

FIRST WAVE SERVING TO MOISTEN MID-LEVELS WITH PATCHY -SN FALLING
ACROSS NRN WI. SECOND WAVE WL HAVE A BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND A QUARTER
INCH THIS MRNG. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDING ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG.
POTENTIAL FOR ONE HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST
CWA. WL BE LUCKY TO GET MEASUREABLE LIQUID PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CWA.

DESPITE LOSS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...ARCTIC FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI. LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH UP TO 5K
FEET...PARTIALLY IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS FRONT SLIDES THRU. HENCE KEPT SOME LOWER POPS FOR
POTENTIAL OF SCT -SHSN ACROSS ERN CWA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE LATE AFTN WHILE NAM HOLDS ONTO
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE EVE. FOR NOW KEPT EVENING /AFTER 00Z/
DRY.

925H TEMPS WARM TO -6 TO -8. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK. EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK
IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI TNGT ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
RETURN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS RETURNING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS IN
THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE RESULTING IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WITH
BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH BS
FROM CURRENT SNOW COVER DUE TO CRUST.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A GENEARL NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY DO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALL MODELS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE QPF AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS MISSING THE AREA
TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTH. THEY
ALSO SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE BELOW AND ABOVE THE
INVERSION. DELTA T VALUES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE...THOUGH DECENT ICE
COVERAGE ON THE LAKE MAY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HANGING ON IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY CHANGE 500 MB FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL LOOK FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THEY BRING A SHOT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. COLD
FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. MORE COLD AIR LOOKS ON TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH IN THE REGION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ENOUGH FORCING AS DESCRIBED ABOVE TO WARRANT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT ERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG. WL DROP TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS AREAS OF -SN MOVE THRU. MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
-SHSN IN THE AFTN WITH CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND MVFR LEVELS.
EXPECT TREND TOWARD VFR IN THE LATE AFTN OR EVE. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MRNG.

MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM MONDAY SHOWED WIDESPREAD
ICE COVER FROM THE SHORE EXTENDING OUT TO AROUND 10 MILES INTO
LAKE MI. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...HOWEVER AIR TEMPS REMAINED
QUITE COLD. TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS
TONIGHT.

THINKING A FEW AREAS OF OPEN WATER MAY FORM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH COLD
TEMPS...WITH SOME ABATEMENT THIS AFTN AND EVE AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 20S. A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING TO GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD