Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
522 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...AIR QUALITY ISSUES UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN SHOWERS AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAST OF A
SERIES OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
TUESDAY PRODUCING DRY WEATHER AND PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT QUICKLY NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW RESULTED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET
FORECAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
IMPACTED THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN LOS BANOS...PACHECO PASS...AND TRACE
AMOUNTS IN MERCED. THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST AND IS
NOW IMPACTING THE FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA NEVADA FROM MADERA COUNTY
NORTHWARD.
THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS APPROACHING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE HOUR. RAIN WILL
SPREAD SOUTH...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND HIGH RES NMM BOTH INDICATE THAT
RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE DESERT
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY. EITHER
WAY...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
RECEIVING BETWEEN A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH...FOOTHILLS
SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS UPWARDS OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE HIGH...STARTING OUT AROUND
9,500 FEET LOWING TO 9,000 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
OAKLAND SOUNDING SHOWED A FREEZING LEVEL AT 9,900 FEET.
REGARDLESS...LOCATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 9,500 FEET COULD SEE A
QUICK 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS IN
MARIPOSA AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES RECEIVING BETWEEN 10 AND 12 INCHES
OF SNOW.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THE HRRR
HAS BEEN HANDLING THE WINDS WELL AND SHOWS A RAPID INCREASE IN
WINDS AFTER 21Z...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...WITH THIS STORM THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...LAPS
ANALYSIS IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG JUST TO
THE WEST OF MERCED AND FRESNO COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH RES SHORT
TERM MODELS AND THE NAM ALL INDICATE A DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...WITH CAPE VALUES ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CALLING FOR A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG FAR NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ERRATIC
WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO AN UPPER
TROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA THROUGH
12Z MON. SCT THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z SUN AND 06Z MON. LOCAL IFR IN
MIST AND FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MON.
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z
MON. SCT THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z SUN AND 06Z MON IN THE FOOTHILLS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z MON. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 18Z MON.
IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...VFR THRU 22Z SUN THEN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z MON.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 18Z MON.
IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY FEBRUARY 9 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 02-08 74:1987 41:1989 53:1993 28:1891
KFAT 02-09 71:2012 45:1923 56:1987 27:1891
KFAT 02-10 75:1961 44:1894 54:1916 29:1965
KBFL 02-08 77:1917 46:1939 53:1963 23:1929
KBFL 02-09 77:2012 42:1919 58:1975 24:1929
KBFL 02-10 79:1961 47:1967 54:1973 23:1929
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY CAZ096.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY CAZ089-091.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1036 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2015
.Synopsis...
Two waves of significant precipitation, heavy at times, will move
through the area into early next week. The first tonight into
Saturday and the second Sunday into Monday. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected especially through tonight. Drier
conditions are expected for the middle to end of next week.
&&
.Discussion...
The main band of rain is shifting south this evening and activity
is transitioning to a more showery nature. Widespread rainfall
amounts over 1.00 inches for the valley have fallen in the past 24
hours with mountain amounts over 2.00 inches. Snow levels have
been slow to rise aided by the heavy precip keeping lapse rate
steep. Have extended winter weather advisory through 4 am above
6500 feet. Expect snow to begin mixing with rain and snow levels
to rise to above 7000 feet by morning. It appears locations above
6500 along interstate 80 have already picked up 10 or more inches
of very wet snow and up to 6 more inches is possible. HRRR shows
showers diminishing rapidly over the valleys after 6 am...although
activity continues over the mountains.
.Previous Discussion...
Storm underway across most of the area early this afternoon as
leading shortwave moves onshore. Showers continue to spread SE
covering most of the valley and into the Sierra. A few lightning
strikes occurred near Sac area this morning as a few convective
cells popped up ahead of main area of rain in area of meager
instability. Moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across the
area into tonight with another 1 to 2 inches in central Valley and
upwards of 2 to 4 in northern valley and higher elevations. Winds
picked up overnight across northern portions of the valley (30-45
mph) and at higher elevations (in excess of 60-70 mph) with
reports of downed trees and power outages, especially in Shasta
and Plumas counties. Gusts in these areas will continue thru
tonight with wind advisory still in effect. So far gusts have
remained below 30 mph across central and southern valley as it
seems winds just above surface having trouble mixing down.
Regardless, expect a few gusts still to 40-50 mph this afternoon
and evening as wave rotates thru. Next few shortwaves will rotate
thru in flow late tonight into Saturday night which should
continue the threat of showers across most areas. Much like this
morning, a few thunderstorms not out of the question across
southern portions of the valley during the day Saturday with
marginal instability and lapse rates. But precip rates/amts should
be lighter than those of today. Snow now falling down to around
5500-6000 feet in the Sierra but wet bulb temperatures expected to
rise later this evening and tonight with WAA so still expecting
minimal travel impacts. Warm subtropical nature of system will
keep snow levels above 7000 feet tonight with significant
accumulations remaining above 8000 feet thru the weekend.
Last in series of wave and associated trough will move thru the
area later Sunday into Monday. Models in decent agreement with
this last system but still disagree a bit in strength. Precip amts
have come up a bit over previous forecasts and some locations may
see similar rainfall to what`s going on currently. After all is
said and done, storm totals from both systems will range from
around 2 to 5 inches in the valley and 5 to 12 inches across
higher elevations. A bit of instability will be present again
during the day, on Sunday and especially on Monday after front
passes thru. Some breaks in clouds Monday afternoon could lend to
the development of thunderstorms, mainly in the valley. Colder air
will move in with this second system. This will cause lowering
snow levels a bit but will be after majority of precip has tapered
off, thus limiting impacts. Precip will taper off Monday night
with a return to high pressure.
CEO
&&
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Storm #2 is progged to drop SEwd from the Pac NW into the Great
Basin on Tue...and then retrograde across the Desert SW and
into the vicinity of Baja or across the Baja Peninsula late
Wed-Fri. This will lead to the re-amplification of the ridge along
the W Coast and a return to dry wx. By the end of the week...a Rex
Block pattern may redevelop along the W Coast...with the Rex
portion of the block in the vicinity of Baja (exact location depending
on model). Breezy Nly winds still expected on Tue and possibly
into Wed as the upper low drops Swd over the Great Basin. Lighter
winds expected later in the EFP. Max temps will be warming into
the 60s possibly into the low 70s if the katabatic wind develops
resulting in adiabatic warming. JHM
&&
.Aviation...
A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys as frontal band moves inland
into Norcal with light to moderate rain. Snow occurring over the
mountains around 6500 ft and above. Winds beginning to strengthen
in the Sacramento Metro region as we forecast sustained winds
tonight of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts. Mtn winds locally
gusting to 60+ kts over Siernev Peaks or areas favored by terrain
forcing. NorCal winds will decrease on Saturday. JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
flood watch until 4 am pst saturday burney basin / eastern
shasta county...central sacramento valley...clear lake/southern
lake county...mountains southwestern shasta county to northern
lake county...northeast foothills/sacramento valley...northern
sacramento valley...shasta lake area / northern shasta county...
western plumas county/lassen park.
wind advisory until 7 am pst saturday burney basin / eastern
shasta county...carquinez strait and delta...central sacramento
valley...clear lake/southern lake county...motherlode...
mountains southwestern shasta county to northern lake county...
northeast foothills/sacramento valley...northern sacramento
valley...northern san joaquin valley...shasta lake area /
northern shasta county...southern sacramento valley...west slope
northern sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.
winter weather advisory until 4 am pst saturday above 6500 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada.
flash flood watch through sunday afternoon motherlode...west
slope northern sierra nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1003 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WINTER STORM STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS. FOR THE LATEST REPORTS
CHECK OUT OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.
AS OF 1003 PM EST...STEADY SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING POCKETS
OF LIGHTER SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. GENERALLY
SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM JUST TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 2-6
INCHES. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
GENERALLY STEADY SNOW PERSISTING.
ALTHOUGH BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW TO FALL DURING THIS TIME. SOME SMALL BANDS OR
BANDLETS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE SNOWFALL. THE HRRR INDICATING THESE BANDS TO MAINLY SET UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RATHER SCARCE THUS
FAR. SO WILL NOT CHANGE SNOWFALL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AS THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF TIME THAT IT WILL BE SNOWING.
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE
LOW THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN
THE STEADY SNOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. AND DUE TO THE SLOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE SNOW ENDS.
EXPECT ABOUT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
THROUGH 600 AM TUESDAY MORNING...
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...AND THE
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING SNOW INTENSITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE SNOW WILL NOT COMPLETELY END UNTIL LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW FINALLY ENDS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 15
TO 25. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 5 TO 15.
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS (ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL). LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM QUICKLY GIVES WAY
TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST...WHICH TRACKS FROM CHICAGOLAND TO
LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING EVEN MORE SNOW TO OUR AREA.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND CLIPPER TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE
EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW...BUT A REINFORCEMENT OF EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE COLDEST...WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND ZERO TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE...ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS FOR
LOWS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST...WITH READINGS MOSTLY DOWN
IN THE TEENS...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLDEST...WITH LOWS FROM AROUND MINUS 5 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AROUND 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS MOISTURE OVER-
RUNS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT...WITH VSBYS BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY IFR THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. CIGS MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL LOWER TO
IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PERIODS OF SN...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE
WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
629 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING
THE I-90 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY A STORM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...INTENSIFY AND MOVE
EAST TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A
WINTRY MIX IN FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THIS SYSTEMS WILL DEPART
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 629 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH
COUNTRY OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING SO FAR
THIS MORNING...AS THIS SNOWFALL HAS BEEN EXTREMELY LIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE SOME FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS WELL. A 130+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA IN THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD TODAY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...OUR AREA WILL BE IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 HPA.
WITH THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE...STEADY LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO
BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 09Z RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LIGHT
SNOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. SNOWFALL RATE LOOKS TO PICKUP SOMEWHAT
FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO...PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW...AS
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO HELPS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS
OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SNOWFALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY. AMOUNTS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
MAY COME CLOSE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY YET IF
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OCCURRING
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...PERHAPS FALLING A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC STARTS TO
DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO REST OF FCA FOR THE
SAME PERIOD...
THE THREAT OF ONGOING SNOW INCREASES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE CONSIDERABLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SUF AGREEMENT WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRIFTING SLOWLY S AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE MIDWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS A 500HPA
SHORT WV EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EAST...AND
CENTER JUMPS TO THE VCNTY OF N CHESAPEAKE BAY...AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE..DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH...THIS SCENARIO IS A PROLONGED OVERRUNNING
EVENT...WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC FORCING AS THE SHORT WV DEEPENS
THE SFC LOW AND INCR UVM SUN NT/MON. THE NAM TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER
N...WITH BULK OF PCPN I90 AND NORTH...WHICH NCEP AS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER EXHIBITING KNOWN BIASES. HENCE THE NAM WAS NOT
CONSIDERED.
18UTC AND 00UTC GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES CLUSTERED ARND QPF OF 1.00 IN
LIQ EQ WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING SUN INTO MON. THE 00UTC
OPERATIONAL RUN IS IN THE SAME RANGE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONCERNS...THIS QPF IS OVER 3 OR EVEN MORE
PERIODS. THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST SOME ZR MIX SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE MIXED CRITERIA IS
DEBATABLE.
WPC WINTER WX DESK HAS MUCH OF AREA OVER 12-15 INCHES OVER DAYS
2-3 IN MUCH OF THE FCA EXCEPT THE FAR NW AND SE CORNERS. SO
REACHING THE 9 OR MORE IN 24 OR MORE HOURS CRITERIA IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND JUSTIFIES A WATCH WITH ITS 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL.
AT THIS POINT WILL EXPAND WATCH TO ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT IT MAY
BE SOME TIME BFE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
WARNING...AND IT COULD EASILY GO TO AN ADVISORY SVRL AREAS
INSTEAD OF THE WARNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION.
MON NT N WIND GRADIENT WILL INCR WITH INCRG BLOWING AND DRIFTING
POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TUE MRNG AS SFC LOW MVS
OUT TO SEA...AND IN FAST 500 HPA FLOW...SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER AREA
TUES AFTN...AND RETREATS N TUE NT. LATE TUES NEXT 500 HPA SHORT
WV AND ITS ATTENDANT CLIPPER MV INTO THE GRTLKS W/INCG CLOUDS.
TEMPS WILL BE +/- 5 DEG FM NORMALS MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SHARP 500 HPA TROF RACES FM THE UPR GRT
PLAINS WED TO FCA THU. IT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SN AND
-SNSH LATE WED INTO THU. THU AFTN INTO FRI STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF LES BEHIND IT..BUT N
FLOW WILL KEEP THIS WEST OF FCA. STILL SCT -SHSN ASSOC WITH
PASSING UPR TROF...CAA OVER HIR TRRN THU NT. FRI WILL BRING FAIR
BUT VRY COLD CONDS AS TROF MOVES E OF FCA...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS E OVER MOST OF EASTERN USA. TEMPS WILL BLO NORMAL TURNING
FRIGID FRI INTO SAT. WILL POP WITH HPC MID SHIFT GUID. NOT MUCH
SPREAD OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE DURING THIS PERIOD OTHER THAN ECMWF IS
6-12 HOURS SLOWER WITH CLIPPER THAN GFS.
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR (AND
WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA...BKN-OVC CIGS AT
2-5 KFT ARE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES.
THESE SNOW FLURRIES ARE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON VSBYS...BUT
MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP BY AFTN FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF. IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AT
KPOU...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THERE TOWARDS
EVENING. WITHIN LIGHT SNOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR
FOR BOTH VSBYS/CIGS...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY EVENING FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO A NE DIRECTION AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY
WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
213 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING
THE I-90 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY A STORM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...INTENSIFY AND MOVE
EAST TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A
WINTRY MIX IN FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THIS SYSTEMS WILL DEPART
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. THE KTYX RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
OCCASIONAL FLARE UPS IN REFLECTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF OLD FORGE...BUT THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY FOR AREAS AROUND STILLWATER RESERVOIR.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW FLURRIES
AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WEAK ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FCA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE SO FAR...WITH READINGS WARMEST IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE THE THICKEST/LOWEST. MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR
LOW TEMPS...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR RISING FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TEMPS ARE STILL DROPPING...BUT
WILL SOON SEE THEIR MINS AS CLOUDS MOVING IN CAUSE TEMPS TO STOP
THEIR FREE FALL. LOWS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS...AND WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE TEENS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.
TODAY...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL START
ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN NY...POSSIBLY
JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY THE
AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN FROM
JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY
BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY. OUR FCST
REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN
DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER
TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL
FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES
AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE
NAM WAS LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF
A WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO REST OF FCA FOR THE SAME
PERIOD...
THE THREAT OF ONGOING SNOW INCREASES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE CONSIDERABLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SUF AGREEMENT WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRIFTING SLOWLY S AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE MIDWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS A 500HPA
SHORT WV EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EAST...AND
CENTER JUMPS TO THE VCNTY OF N CHESAPEAKE BAY...AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE..DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH...THIS SCENARIO IS A PROLONGED OVERRUNNING
EVENT...WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC FORCING AS THE SHORT WV DEEPENS
THE SFC LOW AND INCR UVM SUN NT/MON. THE NAM TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER
N...WITH BULK OF PCPN I90 AND NORTH...WHICH NCEP AS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER EXHIBITING KNOWN BIASES. HENCE THE NAM WAS NOT
CONSIDERED.
18UTC AND 00UTC GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES CLUSTERED ARND QPF OF 1.00 IN
LIQ EQ WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING SUN INTO MON. THE 00UTC
OPERATIONAL RUN IS IN THE SAME RANGE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONCERNS...THIS QPF IS OVER 3 OR EVEN MORE
PERIODS. THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST SOME ZR MIX SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE MIXED CRITERIA IS
DEBATABLE.
WPC WINTER WX DESK HAS MUCH OF AREA OVER 12-15 INCHES OVER DAYS
2-3 IN MUCH OF THE FCA EXCEPT THE FAR NW AND SE CORNERS. SO
REACHING THE 9 OR MORE IN 24 OR MORE HOURS CRITERIA IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND JUSTIFIES A WATCH WITH ITS 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL.
AT THIS POINT WILL EXPAND WATCH TO ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT IT MAY
BE SOME TIME BFE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
WARNING...AND IT COULD EASILY GO TO AN ADVISORY SVRL AREAS
INSTEAD OF THE WARNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION.
MON NT N WIND GRADIENT WILL INCR WITH INCRG BLOWING AND DRIFTING
POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TUE MRNG AS SFC LOW MVS
OUT TO SEA...AND IN FAST 500 HPA FLOW...SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER AREA
TUES AFTN...AND RETREATS N TUE NT. LATE TUES NEXT 500 HPA SHORT
WV AND ITS ATTENDANT CLIPPER MV INTO THE GRTLKS W/INCG CLOUDS.
TEMPS WILL BE +/- 5 DEG FM NORMALS MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR (AND
WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CLOUDS ARE MORE SCT AT
KPOU. THERE A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES AROUND...BUT THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON VSBYS OR CIGS. ANY FLURRIES SHOULD END
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY AFTN
FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF. IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AT KPOU...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THERE TOWARDS
EVENING. WITHIN LIGHT SNOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY EVENING FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EVENING AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE CLIPPER
WILL STALL OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG IT FOCUSING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MAY BRING A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. THE KTYX RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
OCCASIONAL FLARE UPS IN REFLECTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF OLD FORGE...BUT THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY FOR AREAS AROUND STILLWATER RESERVOIR.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW FLURRIES
AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WEAK ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE SO FAR...WITH READINGS WARMEST IN NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE THE THICKEST/LOWEST. MANY AREAS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THEIR LOW TEMPS...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TEMPS ARE STILL
DROPPING...BUT WILL SOON SEE THEIR MINS AS CLOUDS MOVING IN CAUSE
TEMPS TO STOP THEIR FREE FALL. LOWS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...AND WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE TEENS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL
START ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN
NY...POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR
INTO CENTRL NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY
THE AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN
FROM JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.
OUR FCST REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL
FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES
AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE NAM WAS
LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF A
WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST FOR 9 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POTENTIALLY IS FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT MORE LOCATIONS MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO ADDING THESE LOCATIONS /CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST/ TO WATCH JUST YET. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
5TH TO 7TH PERIOD WATCH...AND THEY CAN BE RISKY. ANOTHER PERUSAL
OF 12-HRS OF ADDITIONAL NWP GUIDANCE WAS DEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO EXPAND THE WATCH.
NOW...FOR STARTERS...THE LATEST NAM AND SREFS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS...AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF. THE
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GFS/ECMWF. WE FOLLOWED THE NERFC
AND WPC QPF FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN THE FCST.
OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SOME OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT COULD EVEN HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET SINCE THE CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY /BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/...SO PTYPE LOOKS TO BE AN
ISSUE. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH AND A DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FCST
AREA...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY NIGHTFALL...AND 1-4" TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE
HERE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING COUPLED WITH
THE VORTICTY ADVECTION. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/QG OMEGA WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE FGEN PROFILES INDICATE SOME BANDS OF
SNOW MAY FORM...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES ACROSS SE PA AND THE
DELMARVA REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE FORMS AND
WERE IT TRACKS FROM THERE. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS FAVOR
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFAL FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED! MORE
DISCUSSION ON THIS STORM IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS STILL WILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY...LOWERING TO LIKELY POPS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IN ALL AREAS. THE NAM
WAS PRODUCING SOME MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IT SEEMED TO
BE AN OUTLIER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 5 ABOVE TO THE TEENS.
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO
10 ABOVE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
(AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CLOUDS ARE MORE SCT AT
KPOU. THERE A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES AROUND...BUT THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON VSBYS OR CIGS. ANY FLURRIES SHOULD END
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY AFTN
FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF. IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AT KPOU...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THERE TOWARDS
EVENING. WITHIN LIGHT SNOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY EVENING FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EVENING AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
110 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HAS KEPT THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD, THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015/
UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015/
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THEN SOME WET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY RELAX OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO SWING FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
FROM A BREEZY CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 10 MPH BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO LATE THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ON
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY END OF THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 7 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN SCA WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT FOR WINDS AND REMAIN UP FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SCEC CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE
BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 61 77 62 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 64 77 65 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 74 63 78 64 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 56 78 61 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP GETTING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN CWA
TOWARDS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THE
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THOUGH IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MODERATE...WITH READINGS
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES. THROUGH THE DAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING NORTHERN NC BY MID EVENING THEN OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY USHERING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH FROPA...HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL LIFT TO REMAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
MPH...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 60 IN THE CSRA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A QUICK
SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE FORECAST WITH
NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MVFR FORECAST AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME STRATO-CU AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT THAT A LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KNOTS COULD SET UP. LLWS APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR ANY TAF SITES IS SMALL
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. AFTER 18Z EXPECT MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
640 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP GETTING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN CWA
TOWARDS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THE
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THOUGH IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MODERATE...WITH READINGS
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES. THROUGH THE DAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING NORTHERN NC BY MID EVENING THEN OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY USHERING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH FROPA...HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL LIFT TO REMAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
MPH...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 60 IN THE CSRA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A QUICK
SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE FORECAST WITH
NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MVFR FORECAST AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME STRATO-CU OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY TOWARD
MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KNOTS COULD
SET UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE LATER
TAF ISSUANCES IF IT DOES. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR ANY TAF
SITES IS SMALL BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARD A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. AFTER 18Z EXPECT MVFR ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
354 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
* VSBY EASES DOWNWARD TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
SUB 1SM VSBY POSSIBLE LATE.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS NOT UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
222 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR SOME LOW MVFR STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING.
* VSBY FALLS TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SUB 1SM
VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT TURN NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS IS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THORUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR SOME LOW MVFR STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING.
* VSBY FALLS TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SUB 1SM
VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT TURN NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS IS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1203 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
1028 AM CST
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS EVEN MORE AS STRATUS WILL REMAIN AT BAY ALL
DAY...AND LIKELY EVEN INTO THE EVENING. 925 TEMPS FROM THE RAP
AND MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
FROM CHICAGO SOUTH...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 OR SO EVEN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL HOLD OFF TILL LATER THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CHANCE FOR SOME LOW MVFR STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING.
* VSBY FALLS TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SUB 1SM
VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT TURN NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS IS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A tightening gradient between high pressure centered over Georgia
and developing low pressure over the Northern Plains is creating
gusty southerly winds across central Illinois this morning. Thanks
to the southerly flow and abundant sunshine, 16z/10am temperatures
have already risen into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Have adjusted
hourly temps this morning to depict a faster rise than previously
forecast. Have also nudged afternoon highs up a couple of degrees
in most areas, generally going a degree or two above 06z MAV
guidance. Resulting temps will range from the middle 40s along/north
of I-74 where deepest snow cover remains to the middle 50s south
of I-70. Forecast update has already been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Southerly winds will continue at the TAF sites through tonight
before an approaching cold front causes winds to veer to the W/NW
by midday Sunday. Skies will initially be clear this afternoon,
then increasing high clouds will be noted tonight. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for lower clouds along/behind the
frontal boundary on Sunday, although low-level moisture appears to
be way overdone, particularly on the NAM. Will bring a mid-level
cloud deck into the area between 15z and 17z accordingly. One
potential issue with the aviation forecast will be the possibility
of fog later tonight. Once again the high-res models such as the
Rapid Refresh develop widespread dense fog across Iowa and
northern Illinois this evening into tonight. Despite added
moisture due to snow-melt and increasing surface dewpoints, think
this is also overdone. Will instead introduce just a slight visby
reduction at KPIA this evening through 18z Sun...then further
south at the remaining terminals Sunday morning as the boundary
settles southward into the area and winds diminish.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1011 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY STARTING THIS EVENING OR EARLY
TONIGHT. IFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. THIN CLOUD COVER
WILL START THE DAY...WITH STEADY WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...OR MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 8KT
OR LESS. WITH STEADY FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG SPREADING TO AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING.
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...ON THE BACK OF THIS LOW THE GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK. THIS
COULD BE AN IDEAL SCENARIO WITH MELTING SNOWPACK FOR CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS AND DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
FOR TIMING/DURATION OF LOW VSBYS. HAVE OPTED TO TREND VSBYS DOWN
TOWARDS 1SM...BUT COULD SEE THIS BEING MUCH TOO HIGH AND MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE WEATHER...PATCHY DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THAT COULD BECOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH MIDDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING...LOW/MEDIUM IN PATCHY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1005 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A tightening gradient between high pressure centered over Georgia
and developing low pressure over the Northern Plains is creating
gusty southerly winds across central Illinois this morning. Thanks
to the southerly flow and abundant sunshine, 16z/10am temperatures
have already risen into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Have adjusted
hourly temps this morning to depict a faster rise than previously
forecast. Have also nudged afternoon highs up a couple of degrees
in most areas, generally going a degree or two above 06z MAV
guidance. Resulting temps will range from the middle 40s along/north
of I-74 where deepest snow cover remains to the middle 50s south
of I-70. Forecast update has already been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
High cirrus will continue to effect all sites next 24hrs, either
scattered or broken, resulting in continued VFR conditions. With
dewpoint spreads being small in the PIA and BMI areas, will be
including a TEMPO group for light fog for couple of hours this
morning. Models continuing to forecast low stratus and fog
tomorrow evening. However, believe models are overdoing the low
level moisture a little. So will not be putting low stratus or fog
in the TAFs. Will not be adding drizzle either since there will
not be any low clouds to produce it in the TAFs. Winds will be
south- southwest through most of the period with wind speeds
around 12-15kts. Models do seem to show LLWS so will be adding
this starting in the evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
824 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS...SPREADING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB/BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. THIN CLOUD COVER
WILL START THE DAY...WITH STEADY WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...OR MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 8KT
OR LESS. WITH STEADY FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG SPREADING TO AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING.
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...ON THE BACK OF THIS LOW THE GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK. THIS
COULD BE AN IDEAL SCENARIO WITH MELTING SNOWPACK FOR CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS AND DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
FOR TIMING/DURATION OF LOW VSBYS. HAVE OPTED TO TREND VSBYS DOWN
TOWARDS 1SM...BUT COULD SEE THIS BEING MUCH TOO HIGH AND MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE WEATHER...PATCHY DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THAT COULD BECOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH MIDDAY.
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING...LOW/MEDIUM IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
MDB/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
544 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
High cirrus will continue to effect all sites next 24hrs, either
scattered or broken, resulting in continued VFR conditions. With
dewpoint spreads being small in the PIA and BMI areas, will be
including a TEMPO group for light fog for couple of hours this
morning. Models continuing to forecast low stratus and fog
tomorrow evening. However, believe models are overdoing the low
level moisture a little. So will not be putting low stratus or fog
in the TAFs. Will not be adding drizzle either since there will
not be any low clouds to produce it in the TAFs. Winds will be
south- southwest through most of the period with wind speeds
around 12-15kts. Models do seem to show LLWS so will be adding
this starting in the evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR VSBYS AND STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 9Z.
* ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 4KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS FLOATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE ORD/MDW SITES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITH WARMER AIR ARRIVING TODAY...THE
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND RELEASE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
OR IFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LACK OF
MIXING...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDS INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY...ANY PRECIP OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIQUID AND NOT
POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AIRFIELDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
Warm front was shifting slowly north of the TAF sites late this
evening with all our TAF sites now reporting south winds at
around 10 kts. Still a concern for some MVFR vsbys in fog later
tonight at PIA and BMI, but it appears the more widespread fog
threat will be to our north, at least for tonight. Any MVFR
vsbys in fog at PIA and BMI should dissipate by 16z Saturday
as southerly winds increase during the late morning and
afternoon hours with mostly VFR conditions expected. Once we
get into tomorrow evening, we will have to watch for the
development of fog and stratus. However, the latest data
suggests winds will hold up enough, at least thru 06z, to
prevent any widespread development until the early morning
hours of Sunday across our northern TAF sites.
In addition to the fog threat late tomorrow night, forecast
soundings indicate the potential for LLWS after 03z Saturday
evening with winds just off the surface out of the southwest at
40 kts. For now, will hold off including in this set of TAFs.
Surface winds tonight will be southerly at 8 to 13 kts and then
increase from the south at 12 to 17 kts by Saturday afternoon with
a few gusts around 20 kts at time. Look for southerly winds to
continue Saturday evening at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
213 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...616 PM CST
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE TANKED QUICKLY
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN SPITE OF
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES
AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH 20S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION SETTING UP...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT THE SURFACE
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THERE WILL NOT BE A HUGE
PUSH OF WARMTH AND BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED ON THE 00 UTC DVN
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE THAN
EXPECTED...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME
AREAS. TRENDS FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR VSBYS AND STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 9Z.
* ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 4KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS FLOATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE ORD/MDW SITES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITH WARMER AIR ARRIVING TODAY...THE
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND RELEASE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
OR IFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LACK OF
MIXING...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDS INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY...ANY PRECIP OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIQUID AND NOT
POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AIRFIELDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1157 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
616 PM CST
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE TANKED QUICKLY
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN SPITE OF
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES
AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH 20S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION SETTING UP...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT THE SURFACE
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THERE WILL NOT BE A HUGE
PUSH OF WARMTH AND BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED ON THE 00 UTC DVN
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE THAN
EXPECTED...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME
AREAS. TRENDS FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR VSBYS AND STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 9Z.
* ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 4KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS FLOATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE ORD/MDW SITES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITH WARMER AIR ARRIVING TODAY...THE
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND RELEASE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
OR IFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LACK OF
MIXING...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDS INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY...ANY PRECIP OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIQUID AND NOT
POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AIRFIELDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
UPDATE TO ADD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE THIS PRECIP MODELED WELL. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE SUPPORTING THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT 2 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
AROUND 30 IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S...AND POSSIBLY UPPER
40S...OVER FAR NORTHEAST MO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A CHAIN
OF WEAK LOWS ALONG A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY RESPECTIVELY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO TX...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT CURVED BACK W AND NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO NEB AND SW
SD. THIS WAS ALIGNED UNDER THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND BAROCLINIC AXIS
AT 850 MB...WHICH WAS TIGHTEST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS NORTHEAST OF STALLED BOUNDARY BISECTING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF MN...WI...AND THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED TO ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM INDEPENDENCE THROUGH MUSCATINE TO
GALESBURG. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR POSSIBLY REACHING NORTHERN IL TOWARD SUNRISE AT THE CURRENT
RATE. A DEEP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FLOW WILL ADVECT AN AIRMASS
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND EVEN A FEW TEENS
OVER WI INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS...EVEN WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 15
NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH LOOKED REASONABLE. THE INCREASINGLY DRIER
AIRMASS SHOULD GRADUALLY ELIMINATE THE LIGHT FOG AND HAZE THAT
WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.
MONDAY...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT UNDER THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BROAD-BRUSHED...GRADUAL CLEARING TREND WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED SUNSHINE AND SHALLOW MIXING INTO THE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPARATIVELY
COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM ONLY THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSEST TO THE EDGE OF THE SNOWFIELD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS TWO
STORM SYSTEMS MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS
ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN.
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET MIXED IN WITH IT. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW/SLEET WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS QUIET CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT GREAT. THUS MOST
OF THE FORCING SHOULD GO INTO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NONETHELESS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING/MOISTURE ARE PRESENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
LIKE THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR INVOF KBRL THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
207 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED FOR ALL SITES
LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. NOW WATCHING FOR ALL-TIME
FEBRUARY RECORDS (ALSO LISTED BELOW) TO BE TIED OR BROKE. NONE OF
WHICH HAVE OCCURRED THIS EARLY IN FEBRUARY. OTHERWISE...HAD TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS...TWEAK TEMPS AND ADJUST WINDS FOR A FEW SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
OVERALL...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WEDNESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY TO WATCH FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND CLOUD
COVER INVADES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WARM/DRY WEATHER PERSISTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD NOT APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 TO NEAR 80). WARMEST
TEMPERATURES FORECAST MONDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORCES WARMEST
AIR SOUTH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE STRATUS MOVES INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST MAY AID IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM IS OBVIOUSLY
HINDERED BY SNOW FIELD/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISSUES AND THIS IS WHY
THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IS SO BULLISH WITH STRATUS. AS FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE DELAYED ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER SO WILL NEED TO WATCH RH/WINDS CAREFULLY IN
UPCOMING FORECAST RUNS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HAPPENS...COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREAD IN...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AND STRATUS MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
CONTAIN TWO LOBES OF ENERGY...THE FIRST MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TO THE NORTH AND THE SECOND SLIDES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. A LACK IN STRONG FORCING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FEEL PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONFINED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. DO HAVE A LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FORECAST IN EAST
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THE PERSISTENT 500MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ONCE AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS TIME SO THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR COLD FRONTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES SLIDING IN. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED...WE COULD EASILY OBSERVE ANOTHER
EXTENDED STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
APPROACH RECORD LIMITS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
20KTS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD 7KTS FROM 00Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KTS...MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 12KTS WITHOUT THE
GUSTS. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12KTS AROUND 23Z. THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE WEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS DEVELOP
BY 04Z THEN START TO GUST AROUND 25KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM 06Z-12Z. AROUND 13Z SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS
EXPECTED AND BY 17Z GUST CLOSE TO 25KTS AS AFTERNOON HEATING
ENHANCES MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-
014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1245 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED FOR ALL SITES
LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. NOW WATCHING FOR ALL-TIME
FEBRUARY RECORDS (ALSO LISTED BELOW) TO BE TIED OR BROKE. NONE OF
WHICH HAVE OCCURRED THIS EARLY IN FEBRUARY. OTHERWISE...HAD TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS...TWEAK TEMPS AND ADJUST WINDS FOR A FEW SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
20KTS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD 7KTS FROM 00Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KTS...MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 12KTS WITHOUT THE
GUSTS. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12KTS AROUND 23Z. THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE WEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS DEVELOP
BY 04Z THEN START TO GUST AROUND 25KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM 06Z-12Z. AROUND 13Z SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS
EXPECTED AND BY 17Z GUST CLOSE TO 25KTS AS AFTERNOON HEATING
ENHANCES MIXING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-
014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1134 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Record high temperatures are still on track later today as the
pattern aloft continues to support warm downslope flow off the
eastern Rockies. A weak trough will track across the plains today,
which will help push that warm air over eastern KS. Soundings
indicate that daytime mixing will reach about 925 mb, with the
exception of the snow covered areas along the NE state line. An
analysis of the 925 mb temperatures show that the thermal axis is
forecast to focus somewhere over I-70 and the NE state line.
Cooler temperatures will again reside across southeastern KS
similar to yesterday where highs were over estimated. The RAP is
the most aggressive with daytime mixing reaching a height of 900
mb, but this is common with this model making it sort of the upper
bound. Mixing those temperatures down to the surface would mean
highs in the mid to upper 70s, so it seems reasonable that this
will be unlikely. Therefore have went with highs in the low to mid
70s along I-70, near 60 over the snow covered areas, and upper 60s
in southeast KS. The record for Topeka is 71 set in 2009 and
Concordia is 69 set in 1990, while the forecast for both is 72.
Winds will not be as high as yesterday with the exception of
southeast KS with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Warm and dry conditions
again will cause high to very high fire danger for the southwest
half of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Next upper shortwave trof and associated front pass over the
eastern part of the state early Sunday morning, bringing breezy
northwest winds along with it. Temperatures behind this wave are
rather mild and still anticipate will mix into the 50s northeast
to lower/middle 60s south and west. The breezy conditions combined
with relatively warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s will
bring very high fire danger back into the area mainly west and
south of Manhattan on Sunday afternoon.
The surface high moves south and to our east into Sunday night and
Monday, keeping lows mixed into the 30s and bring easterly winds
and somewhat cooler highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday.
Zonal flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface bring highs
back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, before the next
cold front comes southward across the Central Plains early
Wednesday. After lows in the 30s, if the front comes in early
won`t expect much of a warm up but into the 40s and temperatures
may then fall again through the day as the cooler air comes south.
Have backed off again on precipitation chances as little moisture
has a chance to reestablish itself before the colder dry air mass
returns. Lows cool back into the teens and 30s overnight. Thursday
would remain colder in the 30s as cold high continues to be pushed
southward by northerly flow aloft. May get some recovery back into
the 40s into Friday if colder air can be moved eastward and
thermal axis ahead of the next front gets a chance to mix down
some warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hrs. The biggest
concern aviation wise will be the wind shift to a more westerly
direction about mid-way through the forecast period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
20KTS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD 7KTS FROM 00Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KTS...MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 12KTS WITHOUT THE
GUSTS. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12KTS AROUND 23Z. THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE WEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS DEVELOP
BY 04Z THEN START TO GUST AROUND 25KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM 06Z-12Z. AROUND 13Z SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS
EXPECTED AND BY 17Z GUST CLOSE TO 25KTS AS AFTERNOON HEATING
ENHANCES MIXING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-
014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
431 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30-35KT AT
KMCK. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AT KGLD...THOUGH GUSTS
AROUND 18-20KT ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL
DIMINISH SOME AROUND 00Z...INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING
(03-05Z) AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. GUSTS
25-30KT ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
516 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Record high temperatures are still on track later today as the
pattern aloft continues to support warm downslope flow off the
eastern Rockies. A weak trough will track across the plains today,
which will help push that warm air over eastern KS. Soundings
indicate that daytime mixing will reach about 925 mb, with the
exception of the snow covered areas along the NE state line. An
analysis of the 925 mb temperatures show that the thermal axis is
forecast to focus somewhere over I-70 and the NE state line.
Cooler temperatures will again reside across southeastern KS
similar to yesterday where highs were over estimated. The RAP is
the most aggressive with daytime mixing reaching a height of 900
mb, but this is common with this model making it sort of the upper
bound. Mixing those temperatures down to the surface would mean
highs in the mid to upper 70s, so it seems reasonable that this
will be unlikely. Therefore have went with highs in the low to mid
70s along I-70, near 60 over the snow covered areas, and upper 60s
in southeast KS. The record for Topeka is 71 set in 2009 and
Concordia is 69 set in 1990, while the forecast for both is 72.
Winds will not be as high as yesterday with the exception of
southeast KS with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Warm and dry conditions
again will cause high to very high fire danger for the southwest
half of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Next upper shortwave trof and associated front pass over the
eastern part of the state early Sunday morning, bringing breezy
northwest winds along with it. Temperatures behind this wave are
rather mild and still anticipate will mix into the 50s northeast
to lower/middle 60s south and west. The breezy conditions combined
with relatively warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s will
bring very high fire danger back into the area mainly west and
south of Manhattan on Sunday afternoon.
The surface high moves south and to our east into Sunday night and
Monday, keeping lows mixed into the 30s and bring easterly winds
and somewhat cooler highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday.
Zonal flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface bring highs
back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, before the next
cold front comes southward across the Central Plains early
Wednesday. After lows in the 30s, if the front comes in early
won`t expect much of a warm up but into the 40s and temperatures
may then fall again through the day as the cooler air comes south.
Have backed off again on precipitation chances as little moisture
has a chance to reestablish itself before the colder dry air mass
returns. Lows cool back into the teens and 30s overnight. Thursday
would remain colder in the 30s as cold high continues to be pushed
southward by northerly flow aloft. May get some recovery back into
the 40s into Friday if colder air can be moved eastward and
thermal axis ahead of the next front gets a chance to mix down
some warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR conditions expected through the taf period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK (20-30KT). GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
217 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Record high temperatures are still on track later today as the
pattern aloft continues to support warm downslope flow off the
eastern Rockies. A weak trough will track across the plains today,
which will help push that warm air over eastern KS. Soundings
indicate that daytime mixing will reach about 925 mb, with the
exception of the snow covered areas along the NE state line. An
analysis of the 925 mb temperatures show that the thermal axis is
forecast to focus somewhere over I-70 and the NE state line.
Cooler temperatures will again reside across southeastern KS
similar to yesterday where highs were over estimated. The RAP is
the most aggressive with daytime mixing reaching a height of 900
mb, but this is common with this model making it sort of the upper
bound. Mixing those temperatures down to the surface would mean
highs in the mid to upper 70s, so it seems reasonable that this
will be unlikely. Therefore have went with highs in the low to mid
70s along I-70, near 60 over the snow covered areas, and upper 60s
in southeast KS. The record for Topeka is 71 set in 2009 and
Concordia is 69 set in 1990, while the forecast for both is 72.
Winds will not be as high as yesterday with the exception of
southeast KS with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Warm and dry conditions
again will cause high to very high fire danger for the southwest
half of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Next upper shortwave trof and associated front pass over the
eastern part of the state early Sunday morning, bringing breezy
northwest winds along with it. Temperatures behind this wave are
rather mild and still anticipate will mix into the 50s northeast
to lower/middle 60s south and west. The breezy conditions combined
with relatively warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s will
bring very high fire danger back into the area mainly west and
south of Manhattan on Sunday afternoon.
The surface high moves south and to our east into Sunday night and
Monday, keeping lows mixed into the 30s and bring easterly winds
and somewhat cooler highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday.
Zonal flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface bring highs
back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, before the next
cold front comes southward across the Central Plains early
Wednesday. After lows in the 30s, if the front comes in early
won`t expect much of a warm up but into the 40s and temperatures
may then fall again through the day as the cooler air comes south.
Have backed off again on precipitation chances as little moisture
has a chance to reestablish itself before the colder dry air mass
returns. Lows cool back into the teens and 30s overnight. Thursday
would remain colder in the 30s as cold high continues to be pushed
southward by northerly flow aloft. May get some recovery back into
the 40s into Friday if colder air can be moved eastward and
thermal axis ahead of the next front gets a chance to mix down
some warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period, although there
is still a very small chance for shallow fog development at TOP.
Expect LLWS to persist through 09Z at MHK and 10-11Z at FOE/TOP
with southwest winds to 40 kts below 1000 feet AGL.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLLAPSING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER C TO NE TX/NW LA...WITH CALM WINDS AREAWIDE. IR SAT
AND SFC OBS SHOWS MID LEVEL OVC DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TX TO C
LA...WITH SFC TEMPS/DEWPTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO NEAR 60/LOWER
60S. PATCHY GROUND FOG JUST OUTSIDE THE NWS OFFICE A HINT OF
THINGS TO COME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND OTHER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...GOING
FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY GROWING TO AREAS OF FOG
WITH VIS BELOW ONE MILE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL CONTINUES TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 190 TO THE
COAST AND THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE UPDATES...REFRESHED TEMP/DEWPT GRIDS AND ENHANCED THE FOG
WORDING FOR INLAND AREAS & COASTAL LAKES/BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS
OUT 20 NM. DEPENDING ON VIS TRENDS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH VIS
DRASTICALLY IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT INLAND. MARINE FOG MAY
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER
TONIGHT AS MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST SOUNDINGS AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST FOG FORMATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SAW LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM INHERITED TAF PACKAGE IN
THIS REGARD. VFR TO PREVAIL TOMORROW AMID GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VERY NICE SPRING DAY ON TAP AS TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S
MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. LOOKING FOR SOME FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES CLEARING TOMORROW WITH TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 70S... COULD SPRING FINALLY BE HERE. CLOSE MAYBE.
ANYWAY... A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK WITH THE
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK DOWN ON THE CHILLY SIDE TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 56 74 44 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
KBPT 56 74 48 67 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
KAEX 54 72 41 61 39 / 20 10 0 0 0
KLFT 56 73 44 62 42 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 30S. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S LATER TODAY IN SPITE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA WELL NORTH OF KGRR. FURTHER
SOUTH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATER
TODAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT PCPN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THAT WILL
TRANSITION TO PLAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATER SUNDAY
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN.
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
A BITTER COLD AIR MASS SURGES IN BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR LOOKS POSSIBLE BEYOND THE LONG TERM
PERIOD... THE WEEKEND OF FEB 14-15.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THE CLIPPER COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS BRIEF BEHIND THE CLIPPER AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW GOES QUICKLY NORTHERLY AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN.
THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ABOUT A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD WHERE
SOME PRETTY DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 131 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN ICY
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY PLUMMET WITH THE SFC
RIDGE OVERHEAD. ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND IT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISING IN THIS PATTERN TO SEE AN IMPRESSIVE MID LAKE
CONVERGENCE SNOW BAND SET UP. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THIS BAND WOULD
LIKELY COME BACK ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE COLD TOO WITH SFC RIDGING AND CLEAR SKIES.
WE MAY HAVE TO TREND TEMPS DOWN TO INCLUDE SOME SUB ZERO READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL RH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER MVFR
CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF TAF SITES TODAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG...WILL FEATURE PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS TODAY BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE MVFR CIGS COULD EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BELOW 2500 FT IS MUCH HIGHER TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
FAIRLY STEADY RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA... WITH NO
SITES NEAR BANKFULL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW
FREEZING INTO THIS WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE ICE ON AREA
RIVERS REMAINING LOCKED UP. CURRENTLY... THERE ARE NO SUSPECTED ICE
JAMS IN THE AREA. SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
UNLIKELY UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.MARINE UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
FOR THE LAKE HURON OPEN WATERS FROM PRESQUE ISLE TO ALABASTER.
FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS
WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME WITH NO HEADLINES FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD AS QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...THERMAL PROFILE...PTYPE...AND TIMING DUE TO PERSISTENT
DRY LAYER. OVERALL MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO POINT TO WARMER SOLUTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL MI TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE WARM LAYER DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING WITH 800MB TEMPS APPROACHING 8C. IN ADDITION THE DRY LAYER
EXTENDING FROM 850-500MB WILL ENCOURAGE PTYPES TO BE A COMBINATION
OF RA/DZ/FZDZ WITH A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE CWA...AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS LOCATED BELOW THE DRY LAYER.
QUESTION REMAINS JUST HOW MUCH OF THE MODEL BL MOISTURE IS REAL AND
HOW MUCH IS AN ARTIFACT OF HAVING WAA OVER A HEALTHY SNOWPACK?
CURRENT OBS SPORTING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 10-15F SUGGEST
THEY ARE NOT HANDLING IT WELL AT ALL AS THIS TIME YESTERDAY THEY
WERE SUPPORTING SUB 1000FT CIGS. THEN AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS OVER IL/IA
ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE WITH BR. THOUGH MODELS SHOW WEAK FGEN
AROUND 850MB OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE COLD FRONT
STRENGTHENS THE FGEN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN HIGHER IN
COLUMN. SO WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND LIGHT
FZDZ/SN MAINLY NORTH OF I69. DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL
PREVENT PRECIP EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BROADER
AREA OF LIFT/PRESSURE FALLS WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT WITH MAINLY
A THREE TIERED PTYPE FORECAST...RA/DZ FROM THE OH BORDER UP THROUGH
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SN/FZDZ NORTH OF
THE I69 CORRIDOR AS COOLER TEMPS COULD REMAIN LOCKED AT THE SFC
LONGER. A DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL BEGIN
TO PULL THE FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN SPREAD
FROZEN PTYPES SOUTHWARD. OVERALL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH QPF OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE FOCUS ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SQUARELY ON THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME BETTER IN LINE WITH
THE PROGRESSION AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH ALL MODELS FAIRLY
ON TRACK TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBTLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELD. THE NAM IS STILL THE
FARTHEST NORTH OF ALL OF THE MODELS...TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER WITH COLD AIR DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS
AND ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE NAM TRACK...BUT PULLS IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WHICH YIELDS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBTLE YET SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS
DUE TO THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE ONLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES APART BUT YIELD THESE VASTLY DIFFERENT
SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SEEMS A BIT FAR NORTH
DUE TO THE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER THE
SNOWFALL YIELDED BY THE GFS SEEMS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH QPF FIELD OF NEARLY ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH IS AN ORDER
OF MAGNITUDE HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL STILL
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET AS QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IS THE
AMOUNT GIVEN BY THE ECMWF MODEL.
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON MONDAY...THE WEATHER
WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE RESPITE FROM COLDER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH
DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE REGION OF SNOW NOW RACING INTO THE WESTERN UP IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY PASS NORTH OF MBS THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE HOWEVER BEEN SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHICH MAY IMPACT MBS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RUC AND
SUPPORTED BY SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR DTW...THE PROPENSITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO LEAD TO A DIFFICULT CEILING
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z KDVN SOUNDING DID SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM FROM DETROIT
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL OFFER A GREATER CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR LHZ362-363.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD AS QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...THERMAL PROFILE...PTYPE...AND TIMING DUE TO PERSISTENT
DRY LAYER. OVERALL MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO POINT TO WARMER SOLUTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL MI TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE WARM LAYER DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING WITH 800MB TEMPS APPROACHING 8C. IN ADDITION THE DRY LAYER
EXTENDING FROM 850-500MB WILL ENCOURAGE PTYPES TO BE A COMBINATION
OF RA/DZ/FZDZ WITH A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE CWA...AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS LOCATED BELOW THE DRY LAYER.
QUESTION REMAINS JUST HOW MUCH OF THE MODEL BL MOISTURE IS REAL AND
HOW MUCH IS AN ARTIFACT OF HAVING WAA OVER A HEALTHY SNOWPACK?
CURRENT OBS SPORTING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 10-15F SUGGEST
THEY ARE NOT HANDLING IT WELL AT ALL AS THIS TIME YESTERDAY THEY
WERE SUPPORTING SUB 1000FT CIGS. THEN AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS OVER IL/IA
ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE WITH BR. THOUGH MODELS SHOW WEAK FGEN
AROUND 850MB OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE COLD FRONT
STRENGTHENS THE FGEN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN HIGHER IN
COLUMN. SO WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND LIGHT
FZDZ/SN MAINLY NORTH OF I69. DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL
PREVENT PRECIP EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BROADER
AREA OF LIFT/PRESSURE FALLS WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT WITH MAINLY
A THREE TIERED PTYPE FORECAST...RA/DZ FROM THE OH BORDER UP THROUGH
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SN/FZDZ NORTH OF
THE I69 CORRIDOR AS COOLER TEMPS COULD REMAIN LOCKED AT THE SFC
LONGER. A DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL BEGIN
TO PULL THE FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN SPREAD
FROZEN PTYPES SOUTHWARD. OVERALL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH QPF OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE FOCUS ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SQUARELY ON THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME BETTER IN LINE WITH
THE PROGRESSION AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH ALL MODELS FAIRLY
ON TRACK TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBTLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELD. THE NAM IS STILL THE
FARTHEST NORTH OF ALL OF THE MODELS...TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER WITH COLD AIR DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS
AND ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE NAM TRACK...BUT PULLS IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WHICH YIELDS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBTLE YET SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS
DUE TO THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE ONLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES APART BUT YIELD THESE VASTLY DIFFERENT
SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SEEMS A BIT FAR NORTH
DUE TO THE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER THE
SNOWFALL YIELDED BY THE GFS SEEMS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH QPF FIELD OF NEARLY ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH IS AN ORDER
OF MAGNITUDE HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL STILL
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET AS QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IS THE
AMOUNT GIVEN BY THE ECMWF MODEL.
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON MONDAY...THE WEATHER
WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE RESPITE FROM COLDER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH
DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE REGION OF SNOW NOW RACING INTO THE WESTERN UP IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY PASS NORTH OF MBS THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE HOWEVER BEEN SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHICH MAY IMPACT MBS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RUC AND
SUPPORTED BY SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR DTW...THE PROPENSITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO LEAD TO A DIFFICULT CEILING
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z KDVN SOUNDING DID SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM FROM DETROIT
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL OFFER A GREATER CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.AVIATION...
THE REGION OF SNOW NOW RACING INTO THE WESTERN UP IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY PASS NORTH OF MBS THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE HOWEVER BEEN SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHICH MAY IMPACT MBS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RUC AND
SUPPORTED BY SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR DTW...THE PROPENSITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO LEAD TO A DIFFICULT CEILING
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z KDVN SOUNDING DID SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM FROM DETROIT
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL OFFER A GREATER CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 917 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
UPDATE...
THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT NOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL SLOPE HAS RESULTED IN SOME OCCASIONAL RADAR RETURNS
ADVANCING FROM NRN MI INTO SE MI. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS SE MI HAS
INHIBITED SNOW FROM FROM REACHING THE SFC /CEILINGS ARE STILL
ABOVE 6K FT/. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL RACE ACROSS NORTHERN MI
AND LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT. THIS AND A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
AN UPPER JET MAX OVER THE NRN LAKES WILL TIGHTEN THE THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...INVOKING A MUCH DEEPER FRONTAL
CIRCULATION. THIS ENHANCED FORCING LOOKS TO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE
MID LEVELS...FOCUSED FROM NRN LOWER MI INTO LAKE HURON BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH FAR NRN HURON COUNTY WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AS THIS REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY THIS STRONGER
FGEN.
TEMPS HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY THIS EVENING UNDER THE CLOUD COVER.
THE CONTRACTION OF THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBS HOWEVER...FCST
NIGHTTIME MINS WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT/.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
WEAK RIDGING SETTLING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED
DIMINISH THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION IN THE DGZ LAYER TO PRODUCE FLURRIES EARLIER TODAY AS A
TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY FROM
LOWS THIS MORNING WITH MOST PLACES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
WITH THE WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH
TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED SW FLOW AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE THUMB TO SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE FIRST WAVE SLIDES ACROSS OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME
IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LITTLE MORE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. AS FAR
AS ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF TENTHS OF NEW SNOW BY 12Z.
LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MILD AIR (850 MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS) EXTENDING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. SOME OF THIS MILDER
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTING OUT...WITH UPPER LEVEL
WAVES/PV ORGANIZING ON SUNDAY OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST...ALLOWING FOR THE RUSH OF COLD
AIR BACK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY. VERY TIGHT 925-850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAKE FOR
CHALLENGING FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IF SURFACE LOW DOES MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS 12Z NAM ADVERTISED...FOG
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS MOIST (4 C DEW PT AT 925 MB)/MILD AIR
SNEAKS ACROSS THE BORDER. HOWEVER...EVEN THE NAM INDICATES THE 500
MB MAX HEIGHT FALL CENTER TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SECONDARY SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TAKING OVER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO
SINK/RUSH BACK SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. OVERALL PREFERENCE IS WITH THE
FARTHER SOUTH/COLDER SOLUTIONS OF 12Z GFS/EURO...AS DEEP SNOW PACK
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO DEFINE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN IS LIKELY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WARM LAYER AND LACK OF
MOISTURE AT 700 MB LEVEL WHERE DRY SLOT WILL BE IN PLACE...LEADING
TO A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE...COULD BE
SOME SLEET WITHIN THE CWA...BUT LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
SHORT LIVED/MINOR IMPACT. DEBATE IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN FAST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE IN
THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z UKMET GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH GFS/EURO...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AS THE OHIO VALLEY
LOW PULLS EAST. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD (925 MB TEMPS IN
NEGATIVE LOW TO MID TEENS) TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING BACK.
NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE MONDAY AS SUNDAY/S LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND A COLDER AIR MASS IS USHERED IN. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN COLD TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH
DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A QUIET START TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LENDS ONE TO BELIEVE
WE WON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS SOME FOG FORMING OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP AT LEAST A LITTLE...SO
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL...AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SEE SOME SPILL OVER OF THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA...SO FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF SOME IN DEVELOPING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE COMMONLY
OVER ZEALOUS NAM EVEN INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE MORE SUN EXPECTED...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT HEADING IN TO TONIGHT WHICH
CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES A TEMPERATURE OF +14C AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON AT MSP. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL A LOT TO BE SORTED OUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIP WITH THIS ONE...BUT THE GFS AND EC INDICATE THIS
WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST OF US. THE 00Z NAM LOOKED
FLAT OUT SCARY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS IT INDICATED 0.20" TO 0.30"
OF LIQUID IN SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FREEZING
RAIN. DID NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION GIVEN IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN TERMS
OF THE WAVE STRENGTH AND HOW DEEPLY IT HAD AMPLIFIED THE WAVE VS.
THE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/EC/UKMET/GEM. THE 06Z NAM RUN
JUST ARRIVED AND IT BACKED WAY OFF ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
BOUNCED THE HEAVIEST FURTHER NORTH. STILL STEERING CLEAR OF BUYING
INTO THE NAM FOR NOW. SO...BY TOMORROW MORNING...WE`LL HAVE A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO DEAL WITH...AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS A WIDE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS EXPLAINS
WHY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE DAY
GOES ON DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT FINALLY COOLING THAT
WARM LAYER BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS...THE ODDS OF
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN OUR FA AREA INCREASING...BUT MUCH STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING UNDERWAY OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT WILL SPREAD
EWD MON WHILE SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY PASSES THRU THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE MILD
TEMPS EXPERIENCED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WARMER
AIR WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN P-TYPE EXPECTED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW MON. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL WEAKEN ACRS THE ROCKIES THEN PICK UP STEAM ONCE IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HEIGHTENED ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW IN ADDITION TO ITS RESERVOIR OF PAC MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT ALONG WITH IT WILL INCRS PRECIP CHCS FOR MON NIGHT
THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESSION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT. THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE CWFA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES AGAIN DEPICT
WARMER AIR WITHIN THE BLYR TO VARYING DEPTHS FROM N TO S OVER THE
CWFA. THERE ARE DISCERNIBLE SHTWV TROF AXES ON THE GFS/EC...AND
THIS WOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THE PRECIP. A VARIETY
OF FZDZ/IP/SN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY SN FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE WFO MPX CWFA AND THE FZDZ/IP... POSSIBLY EVEN LIQUID RAIN IF
SFC TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH...CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. THE NAM LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL BASED ON ITS DEPICTION OF EVENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND HOW IT DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER THE DAKOTAS MON-TUE SO AM
DISCOUNTING IT THE MOST...MEANING THAT JUST UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LUMBERING
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE ERN CONUS UPR
LVL TROF...SPREADING SLIGHTLY WWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING PIECES OF A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER ERN CANADA INTO
THIS REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST WITH THE DROP IN
TEMPS...NO ORGANIZED WX SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MVFR VISBYS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATER THIS EVENING
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...SO EXPECTED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. EARLY MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEPER SATURATION WITH RISING AIR...SO SHOULD SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...SO COULD
SEE A FZRA/PL AT THE ONSET...BUT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO SN/PL...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SN.
KMSP...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND PTYPE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS LAID OUT IN THE TAFS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATION...WITH TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ONLY
AROUND A FEW HUNDRETHS. THE LOWER VISBYS WILL BE COMBINATION OF
PRECIP AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS BCMG SE AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH -FZRA/PL/-SN LIKELY. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15G20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A QUIET START TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LENDS ONE TO BELIEVE
WE WON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS SOME FOG FORMING OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP AT LEAST A LITTLE...SO
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL...AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SEE SOME SPILL OVER OF THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA...SO FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF SOME IN DEVELOPING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE COMMONLY
OVER ZEALOUS NAM EVEN INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE MORE SUN EXPECTED...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT HEADING IN TO TONIGHT WHICH
CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES A TEMPERATURE OF +14C AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON AT MSP. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL A LOT TO BE SORTED OUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIP WITH THIS ONE...BUT THE GFS AND EC INDICATE THIS
WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST OF US. THE 00Z NAM LOOKED
FLAT OUT SCARY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS IT INDICATED 0.20" TO 0.30"
OF LIQUID IN SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FREEZING
RAIN. DID NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION GIVEN IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN TERMS
OF THE WAVE STRENGTH AND HOW DEEPLY IT HAD AMPLIFIED THE WAVE VS.
THE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/EC/UKMET/GEM. THE 06Z NAM RUN
JUST ARRIVED AND IT BACKED WAY OFF ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
BOUNCED THE HEAVIEST FURTHER NORTH. STILL STEERING CLEAR OF BUYING
INTO THE NAM FOR NOW. SO...BY TOMORROW MORNING...WE`LL HAVE A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO DEAL WITH...AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS A WIDE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS EXPLAINS
WHY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE DAY
GOES ON DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT FINALLY COOLING THAT
WARM LAYER BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS...THE ODDS OF
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN OUR FA AREA INCREASING...BUT MUCH STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING UNDERWAY OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT WILL SPREAD
EWD MON WHILE SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY PASSES THRU THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE MILD
TEMPS EXPERIENCED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WARMER
AIR WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN P-TYPE EXPECTED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW MON. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL WEAKEN ACRS THE ROCKIES THEN PICK UP STEAM ONCE IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HEIGHTENED ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW IN ADDITION TO ITS RESERVOIR OF PAC MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT ALONG WITH IT WILL INCRS PRECIP CHCS FOR MON NIGHT
THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESSION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT. THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE CWFA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES AGAIN DEPICT
WARMER AIR WITHIN THE BLYR TO VARYING DEPTHS FROM N TO S OVER THE
CWFA. THERE ARE DISCERNIBLE SHTWV TROF AXES ON THE GFS/EC...AND
THIS WOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THE PRECIP. A VARIETY
OF FZDZ/IP/SN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY SN FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE WFO MPX CWFA AND THE FZDZ/IP... POSSIBLY EVEN LIQUID RAIN IF
SFC TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH...CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. THE NAM LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL BASED ON ITS DEPICTION OF EVENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND HOW IT DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER THE DAKOTAS MON-TUE SO AM
DISCOUNTING IT THE MOST...MEANING THAT JUST UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LUMBERING
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE ERN CONUS UPR
LVL TROF...SPREADING SLIGHTLY WWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING PIECES OF A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER ERN CANADA INTO
THIS REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST WITH THE DROP IN
TEMPS...NO ORGANIZED WX SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA.
MAIN CONCERN IS TONIGHT...AS MID AND LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.
TIMING OF THE CEILINGS AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT AS THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH STILL HAS SOME DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH. ONLY MENTIONED PRECIP AT RWF AND MSP.
THINKING AXN THROUGH STC...RNH...AND EAU SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE SO WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE TAF FOR THESE
SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD BE ADDED LATER. ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN AS VERY WARM LOW LEVEL PROFILE TAKES TIME TO COOL BELOW
FREEZING. MPX RAOB THIS MORNING INDICATED A TEMPERATURE OF +13C
LESS THAN 3K FT AGL...QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH WHILE THE SURFACE
WAS CLOSER TO -5C. NOT MUCH FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THE LITTLE THERE IS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING.
KMSP...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL BEING
OPTIMISTIC THAT VFR WILL BE CARRIED LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW COULD SWITCH TO SNOW AS
THE WARM LAYER COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -FZRA/-SN. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZRA/PL/-SN. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A QUIET START TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LENDS ONE TO BELIEVE
WE WON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS SOME FOG FORMING OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP AT LEAST A LITTLE...SO
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL...AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SEE SOME SPILL OVER OF THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA...SO FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF SOME IN DEVELOPING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE COMMONLY
OVER ZEALOUS NAM EVEN INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE MORE SUN EXPECTED...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT HEADING IN TO TONIGHT WHICH
CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES A TEMPERATURE OF +14C AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON AT MSP. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL A LOT TO BE SORTED OUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIP WITH THIS ONE...BUT THE GFS AND EC INDICATE THIS
WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST OF US. THE 00Z NAM LOOKED
FLAT OUT SCARY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS IT INDICATED 0.20" TO 0.30"
OF LIQUID IN SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FREEZING
RAIN. DID NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION GIVEN IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN TERMS
OF THE WAVE STRENGTH AND HOW DEEPLY IT HAD AMPLIFIED THE WAVE VS.
THE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/EC/UKMET/GEM. THE 06Z NAM RUN
JUST ARRIVED AND IT BACKED WAY OFF ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
BOUNCED THE HEAVIEST FURTHER NORTH. STILL STEERING CLEAR OF BUYING
INTO THE NAM FOR NOW. SO...BY TOMORROW MORNING...WE`LL HAVE A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO DEAL WITH...AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS A WIDE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS EXPLAINS
WHY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE DAY
GOES ON DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT FINALLY COOLING THAT
WARM LAYER BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS...THE ODDS OF
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN OUR FA AREA INCREASING...BUT MUCH STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING UNDERWAY OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT WILL SPREAD
EWD MON WHILE SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY PASSES THRU THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE MILD
TEMPS EXPERIENCED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WARMER
AIR WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN P-TYPE EXPECTED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW MON. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL WEAKEN ACRS THE ROCKIES THEN PICK UP STEAM ONCE IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HEIGHTENED ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW IN ADDITION TO ITS RESERVOIR OF PAC MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT ALONG WITH IT WILL INCRS PRECIP CHCS FOR MON NIGHT
THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESSION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT. THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE CWFA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES AGAIN DEPICT
WARMER AIR WITHIN THE BLYR TO VARYING DEPTHS FROM N TO S OVER THE
CWFA. THERE ARE DISCERNIBLE SHTWV TROF AXES ON THE GFS/EC...AND
THIS WOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THE PRECIP. A VARIETY
OF FZDZ/IP/SN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY SN FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE WFO MPX CWFA AND THE FZDZ/IP... POSSIBLY EVEN LIQUID RAIN IF
SFC TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH...CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. THE NAM LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL BASED ON ITS DEPICTION OF EVENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND HOW IT DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER THE DAKOTAS MON-TUE SO AM
DISCOUNTING IT THE MOST...MEANING THAT JUST UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LUMBERING
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE ERN CONUS UPR
LVL TROF...SPREADING SLIGHTLY WWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING PIECES OF A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER ERN CANADA INTO
THIS REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST WITH THE DROP IN
TEMPS...NO ORGANIZED WX SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOME WITH THIS PACKAGE THAT MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...
PATCHY MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK
THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z. LIGHT ESE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 6-9 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. ONE TREND SEEN THIS EVENING
IS THAT THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF -FZRA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE 12Z RUNS. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE CANADIAN RUN SHOWS MORE OR LESS WHAT THE 12Z RUN
HAD AND THAT WAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE ECMWF INCREASES COVERAGE. AT THIS
POINT...THE -FZRA WOULDN/T SPREAD IN UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
TAF (08/06Z). SO THE ONLY TAF WITH -FZRA MENTIONED IS KMSP SINCE
IT`S A 30 HOUR TAF.
KMSP...MAINTAINED VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 08/06Z. NOT CONFIDENT ON
MVFR VISIBILITIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME MID/HI LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD SO KEPT THE 6SM IN PLACE. THE THREAT FOR -FZRA
LOOKS TO BE INCREASING FOR THE TWIN CITIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB GROUP BEGINNING AT 08/09Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -FZRA/-SN. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZRA/PL/-SN. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
939 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
Satellite imagery and surface obs show an extensive low cloud deck
slipping south while the western edge expands slowly westward.
NAM/RAP condensation pressure deficit progs as well as latest NAM
Bufr and RAP soundings show this moisture will be trapped under the
frontal inversion and thus difficult to break up while cold air
advection is occurring. With this in mind will increase cloud cover
overnight as well as into at least Monday afternoon. This now calls
into question Monday`s high temperatures. If we do indeed remain
mainly cloudy highs will struggle to reach 40 over the west central
CWA. New model guidance supports lowering highs for tomorrow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
Benign weather conditions will continue tonight through much of the
forecast period with no mentionable PoPs. NW flow aloft will
dominate as the region sits on the periphery of upper-level trough
after trough that rotates down from Canada, through the Great
Lakes region, and the Northeast. In the middle of the upcoming week,
phasing occurs across the center of the country as a shortwave
ejecting out of the Pacific NW becomes enveloped by longwave
trough rotating through the Great Lakes. This side lobe of colder
air will find its way into this forecast area, courtesy of surface
high pressure riding down from Canada via North Dakota on the
backside of the phasing with the longwave trough.
Behind the weak front that came through today, temperatures
tonight and tomorrow will be cooler than what was observed this
weekend. They`ll be closer to normal for this time of year but
still a few degrees above. Temps will then rise again for Tuesday,
level off Wednesday, then drop well off on Thursday due to the
aforementioned colder air expected to arrive. This chilly weather
will be very short-lived, however, as highs on Friday noticeably
rebound.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
Upstream MVFR cigs are beginning to push southward towards the region.
There is some question if the edge of this status deck will continue
to hold together by the time it nears the terminals. If the stratus
deck is able to hold together, a few of the terminals may see haze
developing as the deck approaches. Will continue to monitor upstream
obs and will amend if necessary. Northerly winds will drop below 12
kts through the remainder of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
857 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE
FOG/STRATUS SHIELD OVER NE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD BAKER AND MILES CITY. THIS IS EASILY VISIBLE ON
IR 3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING 1/2
TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY AT GLENDIVE AND SIDNEY WITH LIFR CEILINGS.
HRRR BRINGS THIS INTO OUR CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY ZONES BY 10 PM.
FEELS ALMOST CERTAIN TO GET IN THERE AND FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED
ALREADY. QUESTION IS HOW HARD WILL OUR VISIBILITIES DROP AND FOR
HOW LONG. GIVEN WHATS UPSTREAM AND CLIMATOLOGY OF THOSE
AREAS...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHICH WILL LINE UP NICELY
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HIGHLIGHTS. WILL TAKE IT THROUGH 11 AM
TOMORROW MORNING. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WX TO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WEAK
PRESSURE RISE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ALLOWING FOR A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS IN OUR
EAST. MUCH COOLER AIR AND FOG/STRATUS EXIST FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE WIND SHIFT WILL ADVECT A
PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS INTO OUR NORTHEAST PARTS TONIGHT. HRRR AND
MET GUIDANCE SHOW A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS INTO FALLON
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS FORSYTH
AND EKALAKA. WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG TO THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.
DEEPER TROF OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL PUSH INLAND TOMORROW.
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
ENERGY AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER OUR
MTNS AND IN THE EAST. OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP SOME
SNOWFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MIXED PCPN IN OUR FAR EAST
MONDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW COOL IT STAYS TOMORROW PER THE
EASTERLY WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE LOWER ELEVATION PCPN TYPE WILL BE
RAIN IN THIS PERSISTENT WARM REGIME.
LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUR FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER
OF 30-40 KTS THEY SHOULD STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
NONETHELESS RAISED WIND SPEEDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE AND EVEN
RED LODGE AND DAYTON DURING THESE PRE-FRONTAL PERIODS. THINKING
GUSTS IN THE 40S MPH.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
CANADIAN SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN MT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
SOME NW-SE ORIENTED PCPN BANDS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH SFC TEMPS TURNING SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW AS WE COLD
ADVECT FROM THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT SOME SNOWFALL IN OUR CENTRAL
PARTS INCLUDING BILLINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
SHIFTING TOWARD OUR FOOTHILLS BY EVENING PER PRESSURE RISES
BUILDING IN FROM THE N-NE. HAVE RAISED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT WE COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL IN THE BANDED
AREAS...MOST LIKELY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. RISING HEIGHTS
AND DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIMINISH PCPN CHANCES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
EARLY FEBRUARY...WITH TEENS FOR LOWS ACROSS OUR EAST HALF TUESDAY
NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
THE EXTENDED IS GENERALLY QUIET...AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS DURING THE DAY. THE
WARM UP WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REALLY BUILDS
BACK IN AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RETURN. WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...AND MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES RETURN. THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING. GIVEN
THAT YESTERDAY THERE LOOKED TO BE A CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND CURRENT
RUNS LOOK DRY FOR SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING WITH ANY
SOLUTION IS LOW. MOSTLY USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT
TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS. KBHK WILL BE IMPACTED AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KMLS WILL BE AFFECTED TOO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE WITH
TIME. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/060 041/049 024/048 032/058 038/058 038/058 036/050
02/W 25/W 41/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 12/R
LVM 038/058 040/049 029/051 035/055 039/057 039/057 036/051
13/W 24/W 51/B 01/N 11/N 11/N 12/R
HDN 032/060 035/048 022/045 026/056 032/057 032/057 032/049
02/W 25/W 21/B 00/B 01/B 01/B 12/R
MLS 031/052 032/043 017/035 020/051 030/052 030/051 029/045
02/W 32/W 10/B 00/B 01/B 01/B 12/O
4BQ 031/059 035/049 019/042 025/056 034/056 033/058 031/049
02/W 33/W 10/B 00/B 01/B 01/B 12/O
BHK 027/049 031/041 014/030 014/048 028/049 027/047 025/041
02/W 32/W 10/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 22/O
SHR 028/061 034/049 022/047 025/058 032/057 031/058 030/051
02/W 23/W 41/B 00/B 01/B 00/B 13/R
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR ZONES
32-33.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM ACROSS ERN SD AND THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP AROUND
ONEILL. WINDS BELOW 700MB GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG UP TO 50 KTS
SUGGESTING A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 40...30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO MID 70S. THE PLACE TO WATCH IS NRN NEB WHERE SNOW COVER IS
NEARLY ABSENT AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND ARW EAST ARE
PLUGGING 70S FOR HIGHS. A CHECK ON CIRRUS THIS INDICATES SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. THE BANK OF NEARLY SOLID CIRRUS ACROSS ERN MT AND WY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SO NEARLY FULL SUN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD INDICATE A DRY WEEK AHEAD.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL TREND COOLER BY MID WEEK THOUGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND
PUSH EAST OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PUSH SOME OF THE WARMER AIR
/850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C OR GREATER/ BACK SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING INTO DETAILS A BIT MORE...A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY HEADS
OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES NEBRASKA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY. CROSS SECTIONS WOULD REVEAL THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB.
ALSO...THE LIFT /WHICH IS WEAK AS CAN BE DISCERNED FROM THE UPPER
JET AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA/ IS NOT IN THAT SAME
LAYER SO HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH MODELS
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 4C TO 10C BY 00Z MONDAY AS
COMPARED TO 12C TO 18C AS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON SUNDAY SO THIS SHOULD HELP THE MIXING FACTOR...AND EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THINK HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S LOOK APPROPRIATE. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED HOW MUCH/IF ANY INFLUENCE
THERE WILL STILL BE FROM SNOW COVER BY SUNDAY AFTER A VERY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. DID KEEP A BIT OF THAT INFLUENCE IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE...BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THAN WAS OBSERVED
FRIDAY OR IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
FAIRLY WELL OVERNIGHT...YET STAYING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
VALLEYS WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO
THE SOUTH. LOOKING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. USED MUCH LESS INFLUENCE FROM SNOW
COVER BY MONDAY AS TWO 50-70 DEGREE DAYS SHOULD MELT ALL OF THE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER
THE RIDGE SERVES TO FLATTEN IT AND FOR THE MOST PART RECEDES IT TO
THE WEST LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW RATHER THAN
SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SPAN OF DAYS
WITH BACK AND FORTH TEMPERATURES WITH SOME COOLER DAYS AND SOME
WARMER. WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SITUATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE COLDER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED EAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPLITTING ENERGY...WITH ONE PIECE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT IS NOT
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN STAYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AS THE PRIOR MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS WILL
KEEP IT FROM INFLUENCING THE MAIN FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE THE WIND. WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE RAP AND ARW EAST SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS WHICH CAPTURE THE
SPIRIT OF THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...17 PERCENT RH AT CHEYENNE AT 2 AM CST. THESE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING CRITICAL WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. AS SUGGESTED BY SPC...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN
AND LOESS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM ACROSS ERN SD AND THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP AROUND
ONEILL. WINDS BELOW 700MB GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG UP TO 50 KTS
SUGGESTING A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 40...30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO MID 70S. THE PLACE TO WATCH IS NRN NEB WHERE SNOW COVER IS
NEARLY ABSENT AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND ARW EAST ARE
PLUGGING 70S FOR HIGHS. A CHECK ON CIRRUS THIS INDICATES SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. THE BANK OF NEARLY SOLID CIRRUS ACROSS ERN MT AND WY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SO NEARLY FULL SUN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD INDICATE A DRY WEEK AHEAD.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL TREND COOLER BY MID WEEK THOUGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND
PUSH EAST OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PUSH SOME OF THE WARMER AIR
/850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C OR GREATER/ BACK SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING INTO DETAILS A BIT MORE...A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY HEADS
OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES NEBRASKA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY. CROSS SECTIONS WOULD REVEAL THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB.
ALSO...THE LIFT /WHICH IS WEAK AS CAN BE DISCERNED FROM THE UPPER
JET AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA/ IS NOT IN THAT SAME
LAYER SO HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH MODELS
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 4C TO 10C BY 00Z MONDAY AS
COMPARED TO 12C TO 18C AS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON SUNDAY SO THIS SHOULD HELP THE MIXING FACTOR...AND EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THINK HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S LOOK APPROPRIATE. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED HOW MUCH/IF ANY INFLUENCE
THERE WILL STILL BE FROM SNOW COVER BY SUNDAY AFTER A VERY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. DID KEEP A BIT OF THAT INFLUENCE IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE...BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THAN WAS OBSERVED
FRIDAY OR IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
FAIRLY WELL OVERNIGHT...YET STAYING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
VALLEYS WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO
THE SOUTH. LOOKING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. USED MUCH LESS INFLUENCE FROM SNOW
COVER BY MONDAY AS TWO 50-70 DEGREE DAYS SHOULD MELT ALL OF THE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER
THE RIDGE SERVES TO FLATTEN IT AND FOR THE MOST PART RECEDES IT TO
THE WEST LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW RATHER THAN
SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SPAN OF DAYS
WITH BACK AND FORTH TEMPERATURES WITH SOME COOLER DAYS AND SOME
WARMER. WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SITUATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE COLDER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED EAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPLITTING ENERGY...WITH ONE PIECE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT IS NOT
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN STAYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AS THE PRIOR MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS WILL
KEEP IT FROM INFLUENCING THE MAIN FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KONL NORTH TO THE
SD BORDER AROUND 09Z TONIGHT IN CIGS 060-120. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE RAP AND ARW EAST SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS WHICH CAPTURE THE
SPIRIT OF THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...17 PERCENT RH AT CHEYENNE AT 2 AM CST. THESE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING CRITICAL WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. AS SUGGESTED BY SPC...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN
AND LOESS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM ACROSS ERN SD AND THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP AROUND
ONEILL. WINDS BELOW 700MB GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG UP TO 50 KTS
SUGGESTING A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 40...30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO MID 70S. THE PLACE TO WATCH IS NRN NEB WHERE SNOW COVER IS
NEARLY ABSENT AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND ARW EAST ARE
PLUGGING 70S FOR HIGHS. A CHECK ON CIRRUS THIS INDICATES SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. THE BANK OF NEARLY SOLID CIRRUS ACROSS ERN MT AND WY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SO NEARLY FULL SUN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD INDICATE A DRY WEEK AHEAD.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL TREND COOLER BY MID WEEK THOUGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND
PUSH EAST OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PUSH SOME OF THE WARMER AIR
/850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C OR GREATER/ BACK SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING INTO DETAILS A BIT MORE...A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY HEADS
OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES NEBRASKA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY. CROSS SECTIONS WOULD REVEAL THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB.
ALSO...THE LIFT /WHICH IS WEAK AS CAN BE DISCERNED FROM THE UPPER
JET AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA/ IS NOT IN THAT SAME
LAYER SO HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH MODELS
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 4C TO 10C BY 00Z MONDAY AS
COMPARED TO 12C TO 18C AS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON SUNDAY SO THIS SHOULD HELP THE MIXING FACTOR...AND EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THINK HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S LOOK APPROPRIATE. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED HOW MUCH/IF ANY INFLUENCE
THERE WILL STILL BE FROM SNOW COVER BY SUNDAY AFTER A VERY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. DID KEEP A BIT OF THAT INFLUENCE IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE...BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THAN WAS OBSERVED
FRIDAY OR IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
FAIRLY WELL OVERNIGHT...YET STAYING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
VALLEYS WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO
THE SOUTH. LOOKING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. USED MUCH LESS INFLUENCE FROM SNOW
COVER BY MONDAY AS TWO 50-70 DEGREE DAYS SHOULD MELT ALL OF THE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER
THE RIDGE SERVES TO FLATTEN IT AND FOR THE MOST PART RECEDES IT TO
THE WEST LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW RATHER THAN
SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SPAN OF DAYS
WITH BACK AND FORTH TEMPERATURES WITH SOME COOLER DAYS AND SOME
WARMER. WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SITUATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE COLDER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED EAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPLITTING ENERGY...WITH ONE PIECE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT IS NOT
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN STAYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AS THE PRIOR MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS WILL
KEEP IT FROM INFLUENCING THE MAIN FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 10Z IN
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...CONTINUING TO INCREASE DURING
THE MORNING AND BECOMING 250-280 AT 12-16G21-27KT BY 17Z. WIND WILL
LOSE ITS GUSTINESS AND DECREASE TO 10-12KT ABOUT 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE RAP AND ARW EAST SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS WHICH CAPTURE THE
SPIRIT OF THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...17 PERCENT RH AT CHEYENNE AT 2 AM CST. THESE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING CRITICAL WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. AS SUGGESTED BY SPC...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN
AND LOESS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING
STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...GUSTY WINDS STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST SITES SHOW WINDS BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING
LEVELS. HOWEVER...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME WAVE
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE OWENS VALLEY SO STRONG WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. DID GO AHEAD AND LET THE ADVISORY FOR ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE EXPIRE ON TIME WHILE THE OTHER REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST 4
AM. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION
303 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING AN IDEAL
SETUP FOR STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA. STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. STRONG...UPVALLEY WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING IN ESMERALDA COUNTY...DYER...IN
PARTICULAR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AND HRRR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO MANY OF THE SAME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUT A
DAMPER ON THE WINDS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. I INCREASED POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
TONIGHT. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND INTO RED ROCK CANYON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE... MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS...WITH SHOWER CHANCES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTH WEST AND GREAT BASIN MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MIXING FOR ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND AID IN CUTTING OFF A LOW CIRCULATION FROM THE
MAIN JET AND THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. THIS RELATIVELY DRY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH UTAH OR NEVADA BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DRIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY SOME RARE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS LOW. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND SOUTHEAST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THAT SAID...MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS
THIS...WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO.
FOR THE MOMENT I HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AT MCCARRAN TO SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 KTS BY 05Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AT 25K CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOB FL050 IN THE OWENS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
SLOPES AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OWENS VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. RAIN WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY AND POINTS EAST INTO ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF LOWER
CIGS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAME LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR BLOWING DUST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CZYZYK
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1009 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
AREA BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY, CHANGING THE
WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
WEST TO EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
TO THE NORTH AND 30S TO THE SOUTH. BEST PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOSTLY SNOW. THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
CHANGING MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW. IN NE PA MIXED BAG. TEMPS WILL COOL
AND PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM N TO S. CHASING HOURLY TEMPS
WITH THE SHARP GRADIENT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE DECENT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY COMING IN HIGHER THAN
FORECAST BUT EITHER WAY SOLIDLY IN WARNING. SNOW AMOUNTS HERE
SOUTH STILL YET TO OCCUR SO CONFIDENCE LOWER. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MODELS PULL OUT SNOW FASTER MONDAY NIGHT SO TIMES MAY
NEED TO BE SHAVED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WARNING. SNOW ENDING
AFTERNOON AND EVE NOT EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
230 PM UPDATE...
AS COMPLEX AS THIS FORECAST IS, FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
IT IS BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AN EXTREME THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS SITTING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40, WHILE
SYRACUSE IS STILL JUST 19. YOU WANT TO TALK EXTREMES. ITHACA HAS
DROPPED TO 27 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE JUST EAST AT CORTLAND
IT IS STILL 37! ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT AN EAST/WEST
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AT FIRST THE THERMAL GRADIENT
WON`T MOVE MUCH, SO THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WHERE
IT IS NOW OR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH.
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY, SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH,
OUR TEMPS WILL COOL AND THE EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. I THREW OUT THE MUCH WARMER 12Z GFS AS IT
IS ALREADY TOO WARM WITH 850 TEMPS OF +2C WHERE CURRENT MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TEMPS CLOSER TO 0C OR -1C. IN FACT WHILE THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z EURO ARE THE CLOSEST MODELS TO REALITY AT 850 MB,
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THEY ARE EVEN RUNNING A TAD WARM AT THAT
LEVEL. FOLLOWING THE NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND LOOKING AT
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE, WET BULBING AS
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY COOL THE COLUMN
ENOUGH TO CHANGE US OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE
TRANSITION A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS NY STATE, PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A
CORTLAND TO NORWICH LINE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET, AND SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT JUST RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR GREATER BINGHAMTON. EVEN HERE HOWEVER, COOLING
OF THE COLUMN WILL CHANGE US OVER TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 03Z/04Z AS
PRECIPITATION BECOMES STEADIER. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW, BUT ICE AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN NY STATE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 8" TO 12" ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE
WE STAY ALL SNOW. 5" TO 10" FROM THE FINGER LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MIXING IS A CONCERN. IN THE 5" TO 10" AREA,
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FINGER LAKES, WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE NY/PA LINE.
ACROSS NORTHERN PA, THE TRANSITION PROCESS TO A WINTRY MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW WILL BE MUCH, MUCH SLOWER. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA. WHILE WE MAY
SEE A WINTRY MIX EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS OF PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES, THE WYOMING VALLEY
SHOULD NOT SEE ANY CHANGEOVER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HERE WE DO NOT
EXPECT A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO MID MONDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN, ICE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT, AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS
SO. ICE AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO TENTHS ARE LIKELY, WITH
SNOW GENERALLY IN THE 3" TO 6" RANGE. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE NEAR THE NY/PA LINE. CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH MINOR SNOW ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF
SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRYING IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER MONDAY
NIGHT WILL MEAN AN END TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SINCE
WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE IDEAL SNOW
GROWTH REGION, IN INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
WHERE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP BELOW 60%. DRIER WEATHER
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS WITH READINGS AROUND 10 ACROSS THE FAR SE.
WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR NE PA AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE NRN CWA.
BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A CLIPPER SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN EASTWARD THROUGH PA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE REGION, GENERALLY LESS THAN
THREE INCHES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
BROAD AREA OF SNOW WILL PERSIST WELL NORTH OF THE TRACK...
EVENTUALLY DEGRADING CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS FOR KELM- KBGM-KAVP
AS IS ALREADY THE CASE KITH-KSYR-KRME. KELM-KBGM-KAVP WILL
INITIALLY HAVE A WINTRY MIX. THEN AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
BRINGING IN MORE COLDER AIR...THOSE TERMINALS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO
SNOW /WITH KAVP TAKING LONGEST...ABOUT 13Z/. 16Z ONWARD...SNOW
INTENSITY WILL DROP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHOOTS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST...AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER OUR REGION...SO IMPROVEMENTS CAN
BE EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS FROM LINGERING -SN MON EVE...THEN MVFR CIG
POSSIBLY LASTING MUCH OF TUE FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE TO MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION.
TUE NGT-WED MRNG...MAINLY VFR.
WED AFTN-WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FROM AREAWIDE -SN.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE CNY TERMINALS FROM
-SHSN...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
AREA BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE WINTRY
MIX TO ALL SNOW, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
AS COMPLEX AS THIS FORECAST IS, FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
IT IS BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AN EXTREME THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS SITTING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40, WHILE SYRACUSE IS STILL
JUST 19. YOU WANT TO TALK EXTREMES. ITHACA HAS DROPPED TO 27 OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE JUST EAST AT CORTLAND IT IS STILL 37!
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT AN EAST/WEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AT FIRST THE THERMAL GRADIENT WON`T
MOVE MUCH, SO THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WHERE IT IS
NOW OR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH.
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY, SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH,
OUR TEMPS WILL COOL AND THE EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. I THREW OUT THE MUCH WARMER 12Z GFS AS IT
IS ALREADY TOO WARM WITH 850 TEMPS OF +2C WHERE CURRENT MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TEMPS CLOSER TO 0C OR -1C. IN FACT WHILE THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z EURO ARE THE CLOSEST MODELS TO REALITY AT 850 MB,
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THEY ARE EVEN RUNNING A TAD WARM AT THAT
LEVEL. FOLLOWING THE NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND LOOKING AT
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE, WET BULBING AS
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY COOL THE COLUMN
ENOUGH TO CHANGE US OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE
TRANSITION A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS NY STATE, PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A
CORTLAND TO NORWICH LINE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET, AND SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT JUST RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR GREATER BINGHAMTON. EVEN HERE HOWEVER, COOLING
OF THE COLUMN WILL CHANGE US OVER TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 03Z/04Z AS
PRECIPITATION BECOMES STEADIER. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW, BUT ICE AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN NY STATE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 8" TO 12" ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE STAY
ALL SNOW. 5" TO 10" FROM THE FINGER LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MIXING IS A CONCERN. IN THE 5" TO 10" AREA,
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FINGER LAKES, WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE NY/PA LINE.
ACROSS NORTHERN PA, THE TRANSITION PROCESS TO A WINTRY MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW WILL BE MUCH, MUCH SLOWER. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA. WHILE WE MAY SEE A WINTRY
MIX EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES, THE WYOMING VALLEY SHOULD NOT
SEE ANY CHANGEOVER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HERE WE DO NOT EXPECT A
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO MID MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN, ICE AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT, AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS SO. ICE
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO TENTHS ARE LIKELY, WITH SNOW
GENERALLY IN THE 3" TO 6" RANGE. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE NY/PA LINE. CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MINOR SNOW ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF SLIGHTLY
LESS SNOW FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRYING IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER MONDAY
NIGHT WILL MEAN AN END TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SINCE
WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE IDEAL SNOW
GROWTH REGION, IN INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
WHERE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP BELOW 60%. DRIER WEATHER
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS WITH READINGS AROUND 10 ACROSS THE FAR SE.
WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NE PA AS
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE NRN CWA. BRIEF WARMUP
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A CLIPPER SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN EASTWARD THROUGH PA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE REGION, GENERALLY LESS THAN
THREE INCHES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
BROAD AREA OF SNOW WILL PERSIST WELL NORTH OF THE TRACK...EVENTUALLY
DEGRADING CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS FOR KELM- KBGM-KAVP AS IS
ALREADY THE CASE KITH-KSYR-KRME. KELM-KBGM-KAVP WILL INITIALLY
HAVE A WINTRY MIX. THEN AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH BRINGING IN
MORE COLDER AIR...THOSE TERMINALS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO SNOW /WITH
KAVP TAKING LONGEST...ABOUT 13Z/. 16Z ONWARD...SNOW INTENSITY WILL
DROP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHOOTS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST...AND
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER OUR REGION...SO IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS FROM LINGERING -SN MON EVE...THEN MVFR CIG
POSSIBLY LASTING MUCH OF TUE FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE TO MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION.
TUE NGT-WED MRNG...MAINLY VFR.
WED AFTN-WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FROM AREAWIDE -SN.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE CNY TERMINALS FROM -SHSN...WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN UPDATE WAS FOR DENSE FOG CONCERNS IN THE WEST. WENT BACK AND
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE EAST WHERE WE WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH OVERCAST SKIES DONT THINK WE
WILL DROP MUCH BUT WITH COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THINK THEY SHOULD DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES. STILL SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP. RECENT REPORT OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN BISMARCK. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHEREVER WE HAVE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOG AND WHAT TO DO
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AFTER LOOKING OVER LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...WX CAMS...ROAD REPORT AND LATEST SATELLITE...HAVE
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBILITIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTHWEST ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE. LATEST
RAP/HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS EXPANDING THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED
LOW FROM DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN NORTH THROUGH DUNN COUNTY.
CURRENT WX CAM SHOT FROM NEW TOWN LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG. LATEST
ROAD REPORT ALSO INDICATES VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE
ACROSS PARTS OF WILLIAMS COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THOUGHT WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY...AND WE MAY
BE ABLE TO LATER BUT AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH VERIFICATION TO KEEP IT
GOING. THINK THE FOG SHOULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND
SLOPE COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SO INSTEAD OF ADDING THEM LATER WILL
INCLUDE THEM NOW. LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WHICH WILL BE OVER THIS AREA BY THEN. OTHERWISE...SPREAD
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 03 UTC. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG STILL NOTED ON WEATHER CAMS OVER MAINLY DUNN COUNTY...BUT DOES
EXTEND NORTH INTO EASTERN WILLIAMS AND WESTERN MOUNTRAIL. ALSO
SOUTH INTO FAR WESTERN STARK AND PORTIONS OF MERCER...OLIVER...
MORTON AND GRANT COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXTEND DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT THIS WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN SPREADING THE STRATUS INTO THIS AREA. THUS
WILL JUST EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY AND WE CAN CANCEL EARLY IF
NEEDED.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASED ON WEBCAM TRENDS FROM 20 TO 21 UTC...ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARCHING FROM
WILLIAMS AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 00 UTC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO IF THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRATUS BANK WHERE THE DENSE FOG RESIDES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...OR IF THE EASTWARD EROSION WILL
HALT WITH DECREASING INSOLATION. THUS...WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO EVALUATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EAST OF HIGHWAY
83....DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE SNOW WITH A POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS TO RISE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL. FOR MONDAY...THE SIMILAR SETUP CONTINUES OF HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST BEING MUCH WARMER...NAMELY THE 40S WHERE SOME SUN
MAY BREAK OUT...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS UNDER A
BROAD STRATUS DECK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY EVENING: A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
BRINGS WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: COLDER AIR WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE.
TUESDAY: A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED IN A BROAD AREA MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOW EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST...AND FREEZING
RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI. COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW EXCEPT DURING
THE EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE A TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ICE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52. SHOULD THE NEXT MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A DIFFERENT STORM TRACK WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A COLDER
(OR WARMER) SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL AFFECT GREATLY THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AND HENCE THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH COLDER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
CURRENTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS. ELSEWHERE IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN
AND KBIS...KMOT AND KDIK. EXPECT ALL AERODROMES TO GO DOWN TO
IFR-LIFR DURING THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AREAS
OF FOG. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ009-
010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
848 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOG AND WHAT TO DO
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AFTER LOOKING OVER LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...WX CAMS...ROAD REPORT AND LATEST SATELLITE...HAVE
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBILITIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTHWEST ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE. LATEST
RAP/HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS EXPANDING THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED
LOW FROM DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN NORTH THROUGH DUNN COUNTY.
CURRENT WX CAM SHOT FROM NEW TOWN LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG. LATEST
ROAD REPORT ALSO INDICATES VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE
ACROSS PARTS OF WILLIAMS COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THOUGHT WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY...AND WE MAY
BE ABLE TO LATER BUT AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH VERIFICATION TO KEEP IT
GOING. THINK THE FOG SHOULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND
SLOPE COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SO INSTEAD OF ADDING THEM LATER WILL
INCLUDE THEM NOW. LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WHICH WILL BE OVER THIS AREA BY THEN. OTHERWISE...SPREAD
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 03 UTC. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG STILL NOTED ON WEATHER CAMS OVER MAINLY DUNN COUNTY...BUT DOES
EXTEND NORTH INTO EASTERN WILLIAMS AND WESTERN MOUNTRAIL. ALSO
SOUTH INTO FAR WESTERN STARK AND PORTIONS OF MERCER...OLIVER...
MORTON AND GRANT COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXTEND DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT THIS WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN SPREADING THE STRATUS INTO THIS AREA. THUS
WILL JUST EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY AND WE CAN CANCEL EARLY IF
NEEDED.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASED ON WEBCAM TRENDS FROM 20 TO 21 UTC...ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARCHING FROM
WILLIAMS AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 00 UTC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO IF THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRATUS BANK WHERE THE DENSE FOG RESIDES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...OR IF THE EASTWARD EROSION WILL
HALT WITH DECREASING INSOLATION. THUS...WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO EVALUATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EAST OF HIGHWAY
83....DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE SNOW WITH A POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS TO RISE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL. FOR MONDAY...THE SIMILAR SETUP CONTINUES OF HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST BEING MUCH WARMER...NAMELY THE 40S WHERE SOME SUN
MAY BREAK OUT...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS UNDER A
BROAD STRATUS DECK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY EVENING: A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
BRINGS WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: COLDER AIR WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE.
TUESDAY: A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED IN A BROAD AREA MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOW EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST...AND FREEZING
RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI. COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW EXCEPT DURING
THE EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE A TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ICE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52. SHOULD THE NEXT MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A DIFFERENT STORM TRACK WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A COLDER
(OR WARMER) SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL AFFECT GREATLY THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AND HENCE THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH COLDER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 847 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
CURRENTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS. ELSEWHERE IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN
AND KBIS...KMOT AND KDIK. EXPECT ALL AERODROMES TO GO DOWN TO
IFR-LIFR DURING THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AREAS
OF FOG. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ009-
010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
546 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 03 UTC. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG STILL NOTED ON WEATHER CAMS OVER MAINLY DUNN COUNTY...BUT DOES
EXTEND NORTH INTO EASTERN WILLIAMS AND WESTERN MOUNTRAIL. ALSO
SOUTH INTO FAR WESTERN STARK AND PORTIONS OF MERCER...OLIVER...
MORTON AND GRANT COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXTEND DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT THIS WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN SPREADING THE STRATUS INTO THIS AREA. THUS
WILL JUST EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY AND WE CAN CANCEL EARLY IF
NEEDED.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASED ON WEBCAM TRENDS FROM 20 TO 21 UTC...ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARCHING FROM
WILLIAMS AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 00 UTC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO IF THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRATUS BANK WHERE THE DENSE FOG RESIDES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...OR IF THE EASTWARD EROSION WILL
HALT WITH DECREASING INSOLATION. THUS...WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO EVALUATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EAST OF HIGHWAY
83....DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE SNOW WITH A POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS TO RISE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL. FOR MONDAY...THE SIMILAR SETUP CONTINUES OF HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST BEING MUCH WARMER...NAMELY THE 40S WHERE SOME SUN
MAY BREAK OUT...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS UNDER A
BROAD STRATUS DECK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY EVENING: A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
BRINGS WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: COLDER AIR WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE.
TUESDAY: A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED IN A BROAD AREA MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOW EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST...AND FREEZING
RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI. COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW EXCEPT DURING
THE EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE A TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ICE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52. SHOULD THE NEXT MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A DIFFERENT STORM TRACK WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A COLDER
(OR WARMER) SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL AFFECT GREATLY THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AND HENCE THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH COLDER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
CURRENTLY VFR CEILINGS AT KJMS WITH SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY LAST ON AND OFF FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. ELSEWHERE IFR CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KBIS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR AT KDIK. EXPECT
ALL AERODROMES TO GO DOWN TO IFR-LIFR DURING THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AREAS OF FOG. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ009-010-017>020-033-034-042.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA FROM 03 UTC THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND
ECMWF...18 UTC NAM AND 18-20 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF
2120 UTC CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE A TRANSITION THROUGH A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA IS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH IS GREATEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR AND 18-20 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING WITH 21 UTC TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL TO LIMIT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
WILL ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
THE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM INVOLVES PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY SHOULD KEEP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING QUIET.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP AND
EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BRING WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING THIS
TIME SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE...AND MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE JAMES VALLEY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL.
LOOKING AT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS WHEN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN...AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY MAINLY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK AND
KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT
KMOT...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ABOVE PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR NDZ009-010-017>021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES. FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN HOW FAST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TO NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 907 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND THE 12 UTC NAM HAVE COME IN WITH HEAVIER
QPF AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND WRF-ARW AND NMM.
THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS LEAD TO GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEING
PARSED OUT ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE REMAINDER OF
THE 12 UTC PACKAGE CONVERGES ON THIS SCENARIO...A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER. FOR MORNING UPDATE
TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK
AND KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT...AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ABOVE
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
908 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND THE 12 UTC NAM HAVE COME IN WITH HEAVIER
QPF AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND WRF-ARW AND NMM.
THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS LEAD TO GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEING
PARSED OUT ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE REMAINDER OF
THE 12 UTC PACKAGE CONVERGES ON THIS SCENARIO...A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER. FOR MORNING UPDATE
TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT KMOT
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KJMS. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK
AND KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT...AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ABOVE
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER. FOR MORNING UPDATE
TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT KMOT
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KJMS. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK
AND KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT...AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ABOVE
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND THEN WEST...SERVING
TO PUSH THE STRATUS EASTBOUND. KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF
THE STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH KJMS SUCCUMBING TO MVFR CIGS PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY UNTIL 15Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN WITH EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AT KISN...SLEET
OR SNOW AT KMOT...AND LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...BETWEEN 03Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD/06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM JORDAN
MONTANA...INTO BEACH...HETTINGER...AND OVER TO MOBRIDGE SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A STRATUS FIELD WAS COVERING THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA/JUST GETTING INTO MINOT. PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MAY THICKEN INTO A STRATUS DECK...HOWEVER QUITE A BIT
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLIDING THROUGH SHOULD NEGATE SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS THE STRATUS FROM AROUND
MINOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE BISMARCK VICINITY AND LOCATIONS EAST.
WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA SCOOTS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT
HALTING THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CANADIAN
RADARS OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DO INDICATE PRECIPITATION
BUT LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND AS SURFACE LOCATIONS UNDERNEATH
GENERALLY REPORTING DRY CONDITIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
GRADUALLY WASHES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAP13 AND
HRRR KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE MAIN CONCERN FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
COME BETWEEN 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE
NEXT UPDATE AFTER ALL MODEL DATA IS IN AND ANALYZED. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD.
A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...ARCHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT 60 IN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AS OF 20 UTC ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND STRATUS...HIGHS QUICKLY DROP OFF ALL THE WAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE STATUS FIELD ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS FIELD HAS NEARLY HALTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS NOW ONLY SUGGEST THE
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE
SAKAKAWEA LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND
FOG FORMATION UNDER MUCH OF THE BANK TONIGHT. BY 08-09 UTC
TONIGHT...THE RAP/HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM ALL POINT TO THE STRATUS
AND FOG BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO BISECT LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
FOR SATURDAY...MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER IS FORECAST BE IN THE 50S WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION - SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SNOW AN
FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW AT VARIOUS
TIME PERIODS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP IN A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. SATURDAY EVENING THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY FROM CROSBY/WILLISTON TO MANDAN/BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN/OAKES.
LARGE VARIATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY...TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS VARYING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...EMERGING IN
THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...OR SLEET NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
SOUTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND THEN WEST...SERVING
TO PUSH THE STRATUS EASTBOUND. KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF
THE STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH KJMS SUCCUMBING TO MVFR CIGS PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY UNTIL 15Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN WITH EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AT KISN...SLEET
OR SNOW AT KMOT...AND LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...BETWEEN 03Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD/06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
BASED ON REGIONAL US AND CANADIAN RADARS HAVE PULLED POPS FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR NE TIP OF THE FA...MAINLY THE NORTHWEST ANGLE VCNTY.
WITH CLEARING TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN SPITE OF WARM
ADVECTION. LOWERED MINS ACROSS FAR S AND NW. THICKER CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD LEVEL OFF DROP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TRIM POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW FA AS PCPC HAS
SHIFTED EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PCPC POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
HEADACHE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT MOVE INTO MT...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT TOMORROW. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO SD/NEB WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP LOWS TONIGHT FAIRLY MILD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH
OF LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
IS FURTHER SOUTH AND HAS ABOUT 10 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID OVER LAKE
OF THE WOODS COUNTY AS THE NAM. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN BETWEEN
WITH ABOUT 0.10 OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW PRECIP LAST
NIGHT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION AND CUT QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THINK THAT THE FAR
NORTHERN END OF LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY COULD SEE 4 INCHES OR
MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THAT.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SD INTO IA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 18Z NAM
HAS AN INSANE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z RUN.
THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
WITH THAT SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...BUT THE GFS GIVES US SOME. KEPT
SOME 20-30 POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THAT SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
AND SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NORTHERN WAVE...BUT
WENT DRY IN THE CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH VERY
WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND EVEN SOME SPOTS AT THE SFC PUSHING
FREEZING...THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS AT ALL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVES PULL OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SURGE OF COLDER
AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGHS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
ALSO BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THAT WEAK HIGH
WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM TOTALLY BOTTOMING OUT. KEPT TEMPS
STILL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION. MODEL QPF CREATES A STORM TOTAL MAXIMA ACROSS DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND TO THE BJI-BDE AREAS. A QUARTER TO A THIRD
OF QPF ALONG THIS AREA THEN TAPERING TO THE SOUTH WITH A TENTH IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. LOW TRACK ESSENTIAL ON PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW
BAND ONE UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH 925-850MB PLUS
0C AIR ADVECTS. THE FARTHER NORTH THE MORE OF A MIX IS POSSIBLE AND
WILL LOWER SNOW RATIOS WHICH IN TURN LOWERS POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. NONETHELESS BEST SIGNAL IN QUIET A
WHILE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS SINGLE DIGITS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED
AND THURS BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CIGS WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MASKING ANY LOW LEVEL CIGS BUT CURRENTLY ALL SITES VFR.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WHICH HAS YET TO PAN OUT. HRRR MORE REASONABLE KEEPING
MOST SITES VFR AND FOLLOWED FOR CURRENT TAFS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1145 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE INCLUDE DECREASING THE CLOUD
COVER...INCREASING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...AND REMOVING ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE
THINNING OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE SUN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LACK OF ANY LOW CLOUD ACROSS NW
PA HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP TODAY WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS JUST
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF THE DAY OVERHEAD
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME STRATOCUMLUS FLOATING AROUND THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND THEN JUST WAITING FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY LOW
CLOUDS...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOP IT OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND THEN MOVES IT NORTH. THIS EVENING SOME DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AND BY LATE TONIGHT LLWS MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
NON VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
923 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON
TRACK AND EXPECTED WEATHER REPRESENTED WELL. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
MID MORNING UPDATE. WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH THE NEXT FULL SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT THEY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. CLOUD DECK NEAR
3000-4000K FEET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
NAM/HRRR BOTH HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING ANY LOW STRATUS UNTIL TONIGHT
AND STARTING TO THINK THIS MIGHT BE THE CASE WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL AT OR BELOW 20 DEGREES THIS MORNING. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR IN THE NE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN THIS EVENING. ALSO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME NE UNTIL TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAMP UP TODAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF
THE DAY OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A LOW CLOUD DECK TO
FILL IN BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH LOW
CLOUD DECK NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS ARE COMPARABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THIS IS THE CASE AND WE START TO MELT THE SNOWPACK WITH A VERY
SHALLOW INVERSION...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOP.
THE RUC SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK EXPANDING BY 20-22Z AND WILL LEAN THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN
SOME AREAS COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST). ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...WARMING
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UP A DEGREE AND LEAVING THE NORTHERN
AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE. DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME STRATOCUMLUS FLOATING AROUND THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND THEN JUST WAITING FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY LOW
CLOUDS...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOP IT OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND THEN MOVES IT NORTH. THIS EVENING SOME DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AND BY LATE TONIGHT LLWS MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
NON VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT THEY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. CLOUD DECK NEAR
3000-4000K FEET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
NAM/HRRR BOTH HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING ANY LOW STRATUS UNTIL TONIGHT
AND STARTING TO THINK THIS MIGHT BE THE CASE WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL AT OR BELOW 20 DEGREES THIS MORNING. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR IN THE NE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN THIS EVENING. ALSO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME NE UNTIL TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAMP UP TODAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF
THE DAY OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A LOW CLOUD DECK TO
FILL IN BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH LOW
CLOUD DECK NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS ARE COMPARABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THIS IS THE CASE AND WE START TO MELT THE SNOWPACK WITH A VERY
SHALLOW INVERSION...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOP.
THE RUC SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK EXPANDING BY 20-22Z AND WILL LEAN THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN
SOME AREAS COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST). ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...WARMING
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UP A DEGREE AND LEAVING THE NORTHERN
AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE. DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME STRATOCUMLUS FLOATING AROUND THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND THEN JUST WAITING FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY LOW
CLOUDS...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOP IT OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND THEN MOVES IT NORTH. THIS EVENING SOME DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AND BY LATE TONIGHT LLWS MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
NON VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
425 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP TODAY WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS JUST NORTHEAST
OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF THE DAY OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING A LOW CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH LOW CLOUD DECK NOT DEVELOPING
UNTIL OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO
NEAR FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS THE CASE AND WE START TO
MELT THE SNOWPACK WITH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION...SUSPECT WE WILL
SEE A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOP. THE RUC SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK EXPANDING
BY 20-22Z AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WARMING THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UP A DEGREE AND
LEAVING THE NORTHERN AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE
AND CLOSER TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MOISTURE INCREASES
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT
05Z WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER INDICATION OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM THE OVERNIGHT TAFS.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO DEPICT MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
IN PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE
DRIZZLE DEVELOP. ALSO PUT IN LLWS FOR AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM MAINLY THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE AT
2KFT WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 240 TO 260 DEGREES AT 45 KTS OR SO.
USUALLY PREFER WINDS ALOFT A BIT STRONGER BUT DIRECTION
DIFFERENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED SHEAR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1129 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COLLECTING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SOME FLURRIES TO AFFECT THE FAR NE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SW WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR A CHANGE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD ZONAL FLOW BUT
THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS A FAST MOVING PERTURBATION MOVES EAST INTO
THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA.
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THIS IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHO WILL WIN THE BATTLE.
STILL CONCERNED THAT COLD AIR BUILDING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MAY
UNDERCUT THE WARM AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CONCERN IS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. SO WILL BE LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF EITHER FROZEN
OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND NO FREEZING PRECIPITATION. BUT THIS
STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
AFTER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS STORM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AT THIS POINT KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOWBELT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEING. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK
INTO THE TEENS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT
05Z WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER INDICATION OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM THE OVERNIGHT TAFS.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO DEPICT MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
IN PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE
DRIZZLE DEVELOP. ALSO PUT IN LLWS FOR AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM MAINLY THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE AT
2KFT WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 240 TO 260 DEGREES AT 45 KTS OR SO.
USUALLY PREFER WINDS ALOFT A BIT STRONGER BUT DIRECTION
DIFFERENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED SHEAR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THEN WOBBLE
EITHER SIDE OF LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRACK FOR
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
532 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KSPS 15-16Z...THEN
DIMINISH AT THESE SITES 23-24Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR EAST OF KAVK-
KCSM-KLTS-KABI AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY IS CONTENDING WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE ARE
10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS
IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THUS...WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 EAST OF I-35 TO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THESE FORECAST HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO
THE HRRR AND RAP13 FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE NEAR TERM MODELS DID A VERY GOOD JOB HANDLING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR
AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE GUSTS MAY BE 25 TO 30 MPH. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
NORTH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE NO COLD
AIR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...NEAR TODAY/S READINGS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND
JUST SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE GUSTS MAY BE 25 TO 30 MPH.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING
NORTH WINDS...DRY WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE OF GETTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS REMAINS JUST LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT ALLOW FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. NORTH WINDS MAY BE IN THE 15 TO
30 MPH RANGE BETWEEN 9 AM AND 5 PM SUNDAY TO ENHANCE WILDFIRE
DANGER.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
MBS
CLIMATE...
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HERE ARE THE
RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937
WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999
WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 41 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 38 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 79 32 74 31 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 42 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 70 49 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
732 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SPREADING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN
FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HAVE MOVED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD AIR COMING INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS A LITTLE
SOONER THAN PREV EXPECTED.
RADAR SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS ENTERING NWRN PA WHILE THE MESO
ANAL SHOWS A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW YORK STATE WHERE MESO OBSERVATION FRWSB IS CURRENTLY 41 DEG
AND STATION CW5437 WHICH IS JUST 7 MILES WNW IS DOWN TO 31
DEGREES. THIS SHARP BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO THE COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE WAY.
ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IN THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY TONIGHT WILL
START OFF AS RAIN BUT TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE ENDLESS MTNS ALONG THE NY BORDER
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
THERE WAS NOT AS MUCH MODEL SPREAD AS IN THE LAST FEW CYCLES
BETWEEN THE NAM/SREF AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FOR MOST WEATHER
ELEMENTS WITH SLIGHT BIAS CORRECTION TO QPF AMTS...WHICH WHERE
BLENDED WITH CLIMO RATIOS AND WWD SNOW/ICE AMTS. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL CAME OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED WHILE THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE INCREASED OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA -- AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE GREATEST RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/SCHUYLKILL COUNTY VCNTY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVANCING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
UNDERNEATH A RELATIVELY WARMER NOSE OF AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR
A RAIN TO WINTRY MIX PTYPE TRANSITION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVERING NATURE OF THE FREEZING
LINE AND MULTIPLE PTYPES MAKE THIS A RATHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT
FCST.
DESPITE SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THERMAL
PROFILES...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE WW ADVISORY
ANOTHER ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES WEST AS IT APPEARS ICE ACCUMULATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED. MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS WHERE
ALSO TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE HRB/YORK/LANCASTER
METRO AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A
CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A MIDL LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
DIVERGENT...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD
COUPLE WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO BRING LIGHT SNOWFALLS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY AS ITS CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL
TREK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE -16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO AROUND ZERO IN THE
NW MTNS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND
CHILLS TO BE A CONCERN. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE THE REGION IS
IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE LATE
WORK WEEK SYSTEM....TRAVERSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THAT SYSTEM SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
STORM...THOUGH IT SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO CENTRAL PA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN TIMING...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES JUST SOUTH OF TOLEDO OHIO WILL TRACK ESEWD TO SWRN
PA/NRN WV BY 09/12Z THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE NC/VA COAST THROUGH
10/12Z. AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE PULLED SWD WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR NEAR THE SFC FILTERING INTO THE AIRSPACE FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD
MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO UNFOLD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...THE VERY SHALLOW/DENSE COLDER AIR WON`T HAVE THE STEAM
TO CLIMB OVER THE CREST OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE EAST...SO
PRECIP TYPE AT KJST WILL LIKELY STAY AS PLAIN RAIN UNTIL THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE COLDER AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE
N-NW.
AS THE LIGHT PRECIP BLOSSOMS OVER THE REGION AND FALLS THROUGH
THE SHALLOW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALLEGEHNIES TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE STEADILY TO
MVFR THEN IFR AROUND 06-12Z MONDAY.
AGAIN...TO EMPHASIS SOME TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE ISSUES NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION - THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN 1/3 AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO MIXED PTYPES. COMPLEX
THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PTYPE
ONSET/TRANSITION...HOWEVER NEARLY CERTAIN THAT THE OVERALL FLIGHT
CAT TREND WILL BE LOWER. LLVL E-NE FLOW ALSO SUGGEST LOWER CIGS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
THU NGT-FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ057-059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SPREADING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN
FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS ENTERING NWRN PA WHILE THE MESO
ANAL SHOWS A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE WHERE MESO OBSERVATION FRISBEE IS
CURRENTLY 41 DEG AND STATION CW5437 WHICH IS JUST 7 MILES WNW IS
DOWN TO 31 DEGREES. THIS SHARP BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO THE COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE
WAY.
ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IN THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
RAIN ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS WE MAY NEED TO CHANGE THE START
TIME OF THE ADVISORY BY A FEW HOURS AS THE COLD AIR COLLIDES WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE ENDLESS MTNS ALONG THE NY BORDER
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
THERE WAS NOT AS MUCH MODEL SPREAD AS IN THE LAST FEW CYCLES
BETWEEN THE NAM/SREF AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FOR MOST WEATHER
ELEMENTS WITH SLIGHT BIAS CORRECTION TO QPF AMTS...WHICH WHERE
BLENDED WITH CLIMO RATIOS AND WWD SNOW/ICE AMTS. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL CAME OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED WHILE THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE INCREASED OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA -- AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE GREATEST RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/SCHUYLKILL COUNTY VCNTY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVANCING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
UNDERNEATH A RELATIVELY WARMER NOSE OF AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR
A RAIN TO WINTRY MIX PTYPE TRANSITION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVERING NATURE OF THE FREEZING
LINE AND MULTIPLE PTYPES MAKE THIS A RATHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT
FCST.
DESPITE SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THERMAL
PROFILES...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE WW ADVISORY
ANOTHER ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES WEST AS IT APPEARS ICE ACCUMULATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED. MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS WHERE
ALSO TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE HRB/YORK/LANCASTER
METRO AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A
CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A MIDL LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
DIVERGENT...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD
COUPLE WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO BRING LIGHT SNOWFALLS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY AS ITS CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL
TREK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE -16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO AROUND ZERO IN THE
NW MTNS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND
CHILLS TO BE A CONCERN. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE THE REGION IS
IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE LATE
WORK WEEK SYSTEM....TRAVERSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THAT SYSTEM SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
STORM...THOUGH IT SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO CENTRAL PA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN TIMING...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES JUST SOUTH OF TOLEDO OHIO WILL TRACK ESEWD TO SWRN
PA/NRN WV BY 09/12Z THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE NC/VA COAST THROUGH
10/12Z. AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE PULLED SWD WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR NEAR THE SFC FILTERING INTO THE AIRSPACE FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD
MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO UNFOLD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...THE VERY SHALLOW/DENSE COLDER AIR WON`T HAVE THE STEAM
TO CLIMB OVER THE CREST OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE EAST...SO
PRECIP TYPE AT KJST WILL LIKELY STAY AS PLAIN RAIN UNTIL THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE COLDER AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE
N-NW.
AS THE LIGHT PRECIP BLOSSOMS OVER THE REGION AND FALLS THROUGH
THE SHALLOW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALLEGEHNIES TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE STEADILY TO
MVFR THEN IFR AROUND 06-12Z MONDAY.
AGAIN...TO EMPHASIS SOME TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE ISSUES NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION - THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN 1/3 AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO MIXED PTYPES. COMPLEX
THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PTYPE
ONSET/TRANSITION...HOWEVER NEARLY CERTAIN THAT THE OVERALL FLIGHT
CAT TREND WILL BE LOWER. LLVL E-NE FLOW ALSO SUGGEST LOWER CIGS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
THU NGT-FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ057-059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. HIGHS TODAY
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHAT TYPE
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED MUCH WARMER
DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 2-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS OF 8-11C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER 15-20C
READINGS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WARM AIR WAS
ALSO QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-50 PERCENT
BETWEEN 925-500MB FROM THE FORECAST AREA WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS EXCLUDING NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...MOST CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO JUST CIRRUS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR
AND STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. SOME BR HAS FORMED OVER THE SNOW PACK
DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY EAST. SURFACE PATTERN DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIERRE SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO GREEN BAY WI.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND THEN
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FORECAST TO REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...MAINLY
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE ALSO SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE AS COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR OVER NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINS TO FLOW IN.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE REAL STRUGGLE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
THOUGH. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK...HIGHS TODAY COULD EASILY
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED IN THE 10-14C RANGE...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND JUST SOME CIRRUS
AROUND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN RIVER
VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE LOWER ALBEDO FROM MORE
TREES PRESENT SHOULD ALLOWS HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL...BOTH OF WHICH TEND TO PERFORM WELL IN
ANAMOLOUSLY WARM SITUATIONS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...AND WITH MAINLY CIRRUS IN THE EVENING
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK
TOWARDS DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN THE 20S. THUS...BELOW FREEZING SEEM
REASONABLE. SOME BR IS LIKELY AGAIN DUE TO THE RELEASE OF SNOW PACK
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING DEWPOINTS.
NOW KNOWING THE LOWS TONIGHT...WE CAN DISCUSS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. DRY WARMER AIR
LINGERING ALOFT...ABOVE 4C...SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIQUID. GIVEN THE LOWS...THAT BRINGS UP THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IN
THE FIRST PLACE...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEED SUNDAY MORNING?
2. CLOUDS/TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. MONITORING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NEBRASKA AT 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS TO PASS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI. THUS...THE BULK
OF THE DPVA FORCING LOOKS TO MISS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH COOLING/MOISTENING LOW LEVELS UNDER A
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 07.00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP SOME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THE STRONGEST CONSENSUS EXISTS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. A WARM LAYER ALOFT FEATURING 3C OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORTIVE COOLING. SO A TRANSITION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO COLDER AIR BELOW
0C...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SHUT OFF. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-
90...IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS SHOULD PLAGUE THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A NORTH WIND DRAGGING COLDER AIR
IN...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS TO BE STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. GIVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO
-12C ON MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COLDER ON
MONDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP OFF QUITE A BIT MONDAY EVENING IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT AS EXPECTED...BEFORE CLIMBING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST COMING OUT OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND TODAY...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA FORCING SEEMS TO BE HEADING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 07.00Z GFS. STILL HAVE CARRIED
BROADBRUSH 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...HIGHEST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS AS WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TOO ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
ANOTHER ARCTIC COOL SHOT REMAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS COOL TO AT LEAST -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THU FROM THE
07.00Z ECMWF...AND POSSIBLY COLDER IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT ON THE FLIP
SIDE KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN. ITS POSSIBLE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS
SCENARIO. GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY WITH
MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN. VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AIR PROVIDED BY THE
ARCTIC COOL SHOT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SHOT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY / VALENTINES DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
CHALLENGING-DIFFICULT CLOUD AND VSBY FORECAST AS ANOTHER DAY OF
MELTING SNOW PACK IS WORKING ON SATURATING THE NEAR SFC BOUNDARY
LAYER. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTINUED TO CLIMB AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
VRB TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT HOW THICK AND WHAT WILL OCCUR AFTER THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH IS NOT CERTAIN. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK DEVELOPING STRATUS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
POOLING MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION. THEY DEPICTED THE SAME THING
YESTERDAY...WHICH DID NOT OCCUR...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING CHANGES
THE SCENARIO. MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
REGARDLESS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. EXPECT SOME AREAS
OF PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD BE A WINTRY MIXED BAG AS ITS
NOT CERTAIN THAT ICE WILL BE IN THE CLOUD ALL THE TIME...AND WHAT
SFC TEMPS WILL BE WHEN IT FALLS. AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH
WHATEVER FALLS...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN/FREEZING
PCPN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL LOWER VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND HOLD OFF ON
BRINGING THE STRATUS IN UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING...BANKING ON THE
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE OTHER SCENARIO
OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP LOWER-MORE
QUICKLY. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. HIGHS TODAY
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHAT TYPE
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED MUCH WARMER
DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 2-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS OF 8-11C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER 15-20C
READINGS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WARM AIR WAS
ALSO QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-50 PERCENT
BETWEEN 925-500MB FROM THE FORECAST AREA WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS EXCLUDING NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...MOST CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO JUST CIRRUS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR
AND STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. SOME BR HAS FORMED OVER THE SNOW PACK
DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY EAST. SURFACE PATTERN DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIERRE SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO GREEN BAY WI.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND THEN
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FORECAST TO REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...MAINLY
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE ALSO SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE AS COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR OVER NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINS TO FLOW IN.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE REAL STRUGGLE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
THOUGH. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK...HIGHS TODAY COULD EASILY
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED IN THE 10-14C RANGE...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND JUST SOME CIRRUS
AROUND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN RIVER
VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE LOWER ALBEDO FROM MORE
TREES PRESENT SHOULD ALLOWS HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL...BOTH OF WHICH TEND TO PERFORM WELL IN
ANAMOLOUSLY WARM SITUATIONS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...AND WITH MAINLY CIRRUS IN THE EVENING
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK
TOWARDS DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN THE 20S. THUS...BELOW FREEZING SEEM
REASONABLE. SOME BR IS LIKELY AGAIN DUE TO THE RELEASE OF SNOW PACK
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING DEWPOINTS.
NOW KNOWING THE LOWS TONIGHT...WE CAN DISCUSS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. DRY WARMER AIR
LINGERING ALOFT...ABOVE 4C...SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIQUID. GIVEN THE LOWS...THAT BRINGS UP THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IN
THE FIRST PLACE...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEED SUNDAY MORNING?
2. CLOUDS/TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. MONITORING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NEBRASKA AT 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS TO PASS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI. THUS...THE BULK
OF THE DPVA FORCING LOOKS TO MISS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH COOLING/MOISTENING LOW LEVELS UNDER A
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 07.00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP SOME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THE STRONGEST CONSENSUS EXISTS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. A WARM LAYER ALOFT FEATURING 3C OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORTIVE COOLING. SO A TRANSITION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO COLDER AIR BELOW
0C...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SHUT OFF. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-
90...IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS SHOULD PLAGUE THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A NORTH WIND DRAGGING COLDER AIR
IN...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS TO BE STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. GIVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO
-12C ON MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COLDER ON
MONDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP OFF QUITE A BIT MONDAY EVENING IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT AS EXPECTED...BEFORE CLIMBING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST COMING OUT OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND TODAY...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA FORCING SEEMS TO BE HEADING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 07.00Z GFS. STILL HAVE CARRIED
BROADBRUSH 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...HIGHEST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS AS WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TOO ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
ANOTHER ARCTIC COOL SHOT REMAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS COOL TO AT LEAST -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THU FROM THE
07.00Z ECMWF...AND POSSIBLY COLDER IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT ON THE FLIP
SIDE KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN. ITS POSSIBLE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS
SCENARIO. GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY WITH
MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN. VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AIR PROVIDED BY THE
ARCTIC COOL SHOT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SHOT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY / VALENTINES DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THROUGH 07.14Z...BR WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE
3 TO 5 STATUE MILE RANGE. OTHERWISE THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CEILINGS MAY EVEN LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTING OFF THE PLAINS...CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO OPTED JUST GO WITH A
SCATTERED MVFR CEILING FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. HIGHS TODAY
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHAT TYPE
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED MUCH WARMER
DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 2-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS OF 8-11C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER 15-20C
READINGS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WARM AIR WAS
ALSO QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-50 PERCENT
BETWEEN 925-500MB FROM THE FORECAST AREA WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS EXCLUDING NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...MOST CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO JUST CIRRUS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR
AND STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. SOME BR HAS FORMED OVER THE SNOW PACK
DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY EAST. SURFACE PATTERN DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIERRE SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO GREEN BAY WI.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND THEN
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FORECAST TO REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...MAINLY
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE ALSO SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE AS COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR OVER NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINS TO FLOW IN.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE REAL STRUGGLE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
THOUGH. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK...HIGHS TODAY COULD EASILY
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED IN THE 10-14C RANGE...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND JUST SOME CIRRUS
AROUND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN RIVER
VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE LOWER ALBEDO FROM MORE
TREES PRESENT SHOULD ALLOWS HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL...BOTH OF WHICH TEND TO PERFORM WELL IN
ANAMOLOUSLY WARM SITUATIONS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...AND WITH MAINLY CIRRUS IN THE EVENING
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK
TOWARDS DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN THE 20S. THUS...BELOW FREEZING SEEM
REASONABLE. SOME BR IS LIKELY AGAIN DUE TO THE RELEASE OF SNOW PACK
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING DEWPOINTS.
NOW KNOWING THE LOWS TONIGHT...WE CAN DISCUSS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. DRY WARMER AIR
LINGERING ALOFT...ABOVE 4C...SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIQUID. GIVEN THE LOWS...THAT BRINGS UP THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IN
THE FIRST PLACE...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEED SUNDAY MORNING?
2. CLOUDS/TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. MONITORING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NEBRASKA AT 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS TO PASS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI. THUS...THE BULK
OF THE DPVA FORCING LOOKS TO MISS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH COOLING/MOISTENING LOW LEVELS UNDER A
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 07.00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP SOME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THE STRONGEST CONSENSUS EXISTS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. A WARM LAYER ALOFT FEATURING 3C OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORTIVE COOLING. SO A TRANSITION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO COLDER AIR BELOW
0C...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SHUT OFF. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-
90...IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS SHOULD PLAGUE THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A NORTH WIND DRAGGING COLDER AIR
IN...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS TO BE STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. GIVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO
-12C ON MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COLDER ON
MONDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP OFF QUITE A BIT MONDAY EVENING IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT AS EXPECTED...BEFORE CLIMBING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST COMING OUT OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND TODAY...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA FORCING SEEMS TO BE HEADING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 07.00Z GFS. STILL HAVE CARRIED
BROADBRUSH 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...HIGHEST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS AS WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TOO ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
ANOTHER ARCTIC COOL SHOT REMAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS COOL TO AT LEAST -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THU FROM THE
07.00Z ECMWF...AND POSSIBLY COLDER IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT ON THE FLIP
SIDE KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN. ITS POSSIBLE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS
SCENARIO. GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY WITH
MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN. VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AIR PROVIDED BY THE
ARCTIC COOL SHOT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SHOT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY / VALENTINES DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2025
KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SD THROUGH NORTHERN IA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SOME LIGHT 5-6SM BR HAS FORMED OVER THE LAST HOUR SO
ACROSS IA AND AT KRST AS WELL. STILL THINKING VSBY WILL HOVER IN
THE 4-6SM RANGE THROUGH 14Z AS DRIER DOWNSLOPED AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOWER VSBYS. KLSE
MAINTAINING A 8 DEGREE T/TD SPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT FEEL SOME LIGHT
5SM BR STILL POSSIBLE THERE IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME AS THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TOWARD THE DEW POINT. VFR DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES A BIT MORE NORTHERN INTO
SOUTHERN MN/FAR SOUTHERN WI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE OF
THAT WARMER DOWNSLOPED AIR INTO THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD
LATER SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 5-6SM BR EXPECTED TO FORM BETWEEN
03-06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
258 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHOW THE HIGH WIND EVENT IS
A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS AROUND
CONVERSE COUNTY...AND PLATTE COUNTY HAVE BEEN AROUND 85 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN DOUGLAS HAS SEEN GUSTS JUST UNDER 80 MPH AN HOUR
OR SO AGO. BELIEVE THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS BL MIXING. CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK
GOOD AND ARE ON TRACK. ADDED NIOBRARA COUNTY TO THE WARNING WITH
LUSK GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH...AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAWLINS AND LARAMIE ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE WARNING OUT FOR
NOW SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH THE HOURLY 40 MPH CRITERIA
SHORTLY.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE
WARNING IS GOOD FOR 8 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW
ZONES DEPENDING ON TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE HRRR HAS VERIFIED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS GUSTS LOWERING BELOW 45 MPH BETWEEN 7 TO 9
PM. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS INCREASE FOR A BRIEF
TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASING LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. MODELS INDICATE SOME RAIN
AND SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING AND DURING MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POP UP TO 60 PERCENT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY EXPECTED RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A WEAK MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS FROM MOST MODELS ARE MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL BE LOWER OVER THE PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BELOW 8K FEET AGL. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS ESTABLISHES
A REX BLOCK AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SAT BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE HARD
TO COME BY IN THIS PATTERN...SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR PCPN
INTO THE WEEKEND. H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2 TO 0 C WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND
HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101>107-109-
110-115>118.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
441 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA WHILE LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE DELMARVA. LOW PRESSURE STAYS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF
PRECIP COVERAGE. THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENT IS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH THE WARM NOSE ALOFT MAKING FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
COAST WITH SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE SECOND HALF OF THIS EVENT
WILL BE CHANGING PRIMARILY TO SNOW AND SLEET AT THE COAST WITH
SOME LEFTOVER FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM NOSE WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER.
00Z RUNS OF NAM AND ECMWF DEPICT BETTER QPF TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS
THAN THE CMC AND GFS. 00Z ECMWF SHOWING QPF THAT WOULD AGREE WITH
THE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST OF THE 04Z HRRR SO WILL BE RELYING MORE
UPON THE ECMWF FOR POP TRENDS.
MUCH OF THE SNOW AND ICE WILL BE ONGOING UNTIL AROUND 18Z FROM A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDING BOUNDARY LAYER
ANALYSIS. THE SIGNATURES WITHIN MSLP SHOW PROMINENT COLD AIR
DAMMING. THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE INCREASING WITH A
PERSISTENT WARM NOSE AROUND 900MB...HELPING SET UP FOR PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NYC/COASTAL AREAS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS LONG ISLAND. FARTHER NORTH THE
WARM NOSE WILL MAKE ITS APPEARANCE BRIEFLY BUT SNOW WILL BE DOMINANT
BEFORE AND AFTER THAT TIME.
WHAT MAKES THIS A CHALLENGING FORECAST IS HOW WELL THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THE WARM NOSE AND ITS DEPTH RELATIVE TO COLDER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. SLEET COULD VERY WELL BE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY WITH
LESS OF A WARM NOSE BUT A THICKER NEAR SURFACE LAYER BELOW FREEZING.
QPF IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF LARGER UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE FORECAST
MODELS AND WHILE IT COULD TREND HIGHER IF GFS IS CORRECT...NAM AND
ECMWF AS AFOREMENTIONED ARE BETTER MATCHING UP WITH OBSERVATIONS IN
RADAR SO THIS WOULD MAKE FOR LIGHTER QPF...A GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.5
LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH AROUND 0.2 FOR NYC/URBAN NE NJ/LONG ISLAND
AND GRADUALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO THE NORTH.
FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ECMWF AND NAM12 RAW 2M TEMPS WERE USED MID
20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WINTER EVENT WILL BE ONGOING WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC SLIGHTLY DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS DECREASING.
THERE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW LEFTOVER GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE AND RETENTION OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HENCE
ICE NUCLEI...NO FURTHER ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED. LOWS WERE A
BLEND OF NAM12 2M TEMPS AND GMOS.
FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT WITH MORE
SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HIGHS FORECAST ARE IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WERE
TAKEN FROM 2/3 GMOS AND 1/3 NAM12 2M TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE UPPER NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE ONE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFY...AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AND AN ALL LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME WITH THE STORM QUICK MOVING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
WEST. THE HIGH QUICKLY WEAKENS AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS WEST AND SOUTH...MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS LOW...WITH RATHER LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR WILL BE RE ENFORCED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER
SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INLAND...AND APPROACHING ZERO NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED IN THE NY METRO TODAY
WAVES LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY IFR. WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO SNOW THIS AFTN FOR MOST TERMINALS.
A LIGHT PCPN EVENT OVERALL...BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT DUE TO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN.
NE WINDS NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 20 KT.
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS...
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/ISP...1-2 INCHES...WITH UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICE.
KHPN/KBDR/KGON...2-3 INCHES...WITH UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE.
KSWF...4-7 INCHES.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO OF -FZRA POSSIBLE BEFORE
10Z. CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO OF -FZRA POSSIBLE BEFORE
10Z.CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO OF -FZRA POSSIBLE BEFORE
10Z. CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO OF -FZRA POSSIBLE BEFORE
10Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CHC
TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS THIS MORNING MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.
CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BEFORE 12Z MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.
CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
GALES FOR THE OCEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...COULD DIMINISH EARLIER
TONIGHT THAN FORECAST. WIND GUSTS WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
THRESHOLD SO LEFT THE END TIMING AS BEFORE AND UPGRADED TO GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO 6 TO 9 FT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
COULD LINGER ON TUESDAY BUT A DOWNWARD TREND IS FORECAST AND
CONDITIONS SEEMED MARGINAL SO SCA WAS NOT YET EXTENDED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS ARE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LONG TERM SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON
THE OCEAN REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING EAST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS ALSO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ON THE OCEAN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND
REMAIN BELOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.1 TO 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED.
A TENTH OR TWO OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NEW YORK CITY ALL HAZARDS RADIO...FREQUENCY 162.550 MHZ...IS OFF
THE AIR DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE ISSUE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
201 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR AS WELL AS
00Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL REMAIN
DRY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEFORE DAWN...THE SURFACE
WINDS ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THOUGH IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. LOWS AROUND SUNRISE RATHER MODERATE...WITH
READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES.
LATER TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH
THE DAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
MID EVENING THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT. HRRR/NAM/GFS ALL SHOWING BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH
FROPA...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL LIFT TO
REMAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RAIN WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS SOME
PVA LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
MPH...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 60 IN THE CSRA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A QUICK
SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD
FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z THEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS AS WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
5000-6000 FT OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER 21Z-00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN HRRR/RAP
SHOWING ONLY LOW END VFR CIGS CONTINUING. HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS 18Z-21Z WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF IFR CIGS AFTER 00Z BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST. WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY EVENING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1258 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP GETTING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN CWA
TOWARDS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THE
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THOUGH IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MODERATE...WITH READINGS
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES. THROUGH THE DAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING NORTHERN NC BY MID EVENING THEN OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY USHERING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH FROPA...HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL LIFT TO REMAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
MPH...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 60 IN THE CSRA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A QUICK
SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE FORECAST WITH
NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z THEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS AS WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
5000-6000 FT OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER 21Z-00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN HRRR/RAP
SHOWING ONLY LOW END VFR CIGS CONTINUING. HAVE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS 18Z-21Z WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF IFR CIGS AFTER 00Z BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST. WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY EVENING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
341 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING
DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH
TODAY...ONLY REACHING MID 20S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IN STORE WITH ONLY FORECAST ISSUES BEING ENDING
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHEN/IF SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME WEAK LIFT WAS REMAINING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE AREA. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND A FEW
SPOTS...INCLUDING HERE AT THE OFFICE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COURTESY OF THE LOSS OF ANY ICE CRYSTAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FZDZ FOR SE HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH 11Z BEFORE ENDING AS WAVE EXIT THE AREA. DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY ICING ISSUES BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
GREATER CONCERN IN TERMS OF ROADS WILL LIKELY BE FROM RECENT
MELTED SNOW REFREEZING ON SURFACES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COLDER
AIR...WILL CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPTICK IN TEMPS TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS MAYBE SEEING A 3 TO 5 DEGREE CLIMB AT BEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS WAS LOCATED FROM ALPENA MI TO NEAR
GREEN BAY AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. 6Z RUN OF NAM TRIES TO BRING
CLEARING INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE RUC AND
LOCAL WRF A TOUCH SLOWER...MORE CLOSER TO 00Z. HAVE KEPT WITH SLOWER
TREND FOR NOW WITH SOME THIN SPOTS LIKELY TO APPEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AND SINGLE DIGITS NORTH. MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN
THE NORTH IF SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FAR NORTH/NE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
ARCTIC STREAM SW OVR WRN NUNAVUT THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SEWD EARLY
IN THE PD AND MARKEDLY DEEPEN ERN NOAM TROUGHING AS SECONDARY ARCTIC
WAVE FOLLOWS LT PD. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR W/TEMP DEPARTURES OF 20+ DEGREES BLO NORMAL LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE PD.
LEAD ARCTIC DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACRS THE LAKES ON WED W/GENERALLY
LTL FANFARE LOCALLY AS SW AND ASSOCD MSTR PLUME PASS WELL NORTH AND
DISCOUNTED ALLBLEND POPS W/GROSS MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDING DRY HERE.
HWVR PASSAGE OF ARCTIC SFC BNDRY WED NIGHT ALG W/VIGOROUS HGT FALLS
ALOFT TIED TO SHARPENING H7-5 TROUGH ALOFT AND MORE FVRBL CYCLONIC
LL FLW TRAJECTORIES WITHIN BLOSSOMING LK AGGREGATE TROUGHING WARRANT
AN APPRECIABLE BOOST TO LK EFFECT SHSN CONTG INTO THU. AHD OF THIS
FTR...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL MAKE WED THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD.
SECONDARY FOLLOWING ARCTIC WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACRS THE LAKES FRI
NIGHT W/LK EFFECT LIKELY DVLPG IN ITS WAKE LT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OTRWS TEMPS TURNING SHARPLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
COLDER AIR WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DOMINATING AT BOTH SITES. HIT AND MISS FREEZING RAIN/SNOW
MAY IMPACT KFWA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
UPSTREAM TRENDS ONLY SHOWING A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SO
WILL RUN WITH TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS AT ONSET AND LEAVE AT THAT FOR NOW.
HAVE LEFT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT
INTO MVFR AFTER 12Z. HI RES MODELS SPLIT ON WHETHER STRATUS
REMAINS OR NOT INTO TONIGHT. TRENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOW
SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE WITH HINTS OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT WHICH
LOCAL WRF DEPICTS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
BUT MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR WITH 12Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
UPDATE TO ADD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE THIS PRECIP MODELED WELL. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE SUPPORTING THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT 2 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
AROUND 30 IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S...AND POSSIBLY UPPER
40S...OVER FAR NORTHEAST MO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A CHAIN
OF WEAK LOWS ALONG A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY RESPECTIVELY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO TX...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT CURVED BACK W AND NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO NEB AND SW
SD. THIS WAS ALIGNED UNDER THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND BAROCLINIC AXIS
AT 850 MB...WHICH WAS TIGHTEST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS NORTHEAST OF STALLED BOUNDARY BISECTING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ENCOMPASSING ALL OF MN...WI...AND THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOCAL AREA...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED TO ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM INDEPENDENCE THROUGH MUSCATINE TO
GALESBURG. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR POSSIBLY REACHING NORTHERN IL TOWARD SUNRISE AT THE CURRENT
RATE. A DEEP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FLOW WILL ADVECT AN AIRMASS
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND EVEN A FEW TEENS
OVER WI INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THUS...EVEN WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 15
NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH LOOKED REASONABLE. THE INCREASINGLY DRIER
AIRMASS SHOULD GRADUALLY ELIMINATE THE LIGHT FOG AND HAZE THAT
WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.
MONDAY...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT UNDER THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BROAD-BRUSHED...GRADUAL CLEARING TREND WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED SUNSHINE AND SHALLOW MIXING INTO THE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPARATIVELY
COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM ONLY THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSEST TO THE EDGE OF THE SNOWFIELD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS TWO
STORM SYSTEMS MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS
ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN.
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET MIXED IN WITH IT. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW/SLEET WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS QUIET CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT GREAT. THUS MOST
OF THE FORCING SHOULD GO INTO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NONETHELESS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING/MOISTURE ARE PRESENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS.
LIKE THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KCID/KBRL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE
DECK SCATTERING OUT AROUND 21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
256 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Backdoor cold front has pushed southwest through the forecast
area overnight as another weak wave tracked into the mid MS
valley. Behind the front cold air advection has caused fog and
stratus as a weak surface ridge slides through NE and into KS
later today. The lowest visibilities are currently located on the
western edge of the fog/stratus over south central NE. Winds
should decrease as the ridge approaches the forecast area limiting
the amount of mixing as most sites are only a few degrees away
from saturation. Several runs of the SREF and HRRR show that dense
fog may try to build into north central KS this morning therefore
have kept the mention of fog in the forecast. Not confident if the
visibilities will warrant an advisory at this point and or when
they will improve. It appears that eastern KS will only experience
minor visibility restrictions through mid morning hours. The more
solid fog in north central KS may try to hold on until late
morning, but should lift into a stratus deck by noon. Stratus and
or fog should push over the entire area within the next few hours
although the question is how long it sticks around today. As of
now most of the guidance is suggesting clouds last most of the
daytime hours, but may begin to scatter out on the southern edge.
Regardless have lowered the high temperatures today due to the
uncertainty of the cloud cover, which should roughly range from 40
in far northeast KS to 50 in central KS. By tonight the surface
high retreats eastward allowing return flow. The better chances
for stratus tonight will push slightly westward into central KS
and central NE ahead of the next shortwave forecast to track over
the northern plains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Another above normal day is on track for Tuesday, as area remains
between systems and under warm nose aloft. Highs forecast to mix
from the lower 50s northeast to near 60 in the west. GFS is faster
with the arrival of the front and has it through much of the area
by sunrise while NAM remains slower, bisecting the CWA by sunrise.
Think a well mixed boundary layer will keep overnight lows up in
the 30s, and may rise in the morning if frontal boundary is
slower, but otherwise expect steady to falling temperatures on
Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s may occur early. Lows
fall quickly into the teens as the cold high moves due south into
the Central Plains. Cold advection slowly moderates and shifts
east into Thursday but highs only around 20 in the northeast to
lower 30s in the southern counties.
Large scale longwave trof setting up over the Eastern half of the
US is persistent in sending rounds of cold air nearly due
southward out of central Canada into the Plains for late week into
the weekend. Friday still a transition day between cold surges and
brings a rebound back into the 40s to near 50 for high
temperatures before more cold air comes southward for Saturday.
Trend for the eastern trof is deeper and farther south and west,
however it does appear to progress to the east later in the
weekend as the upper jet rounds the base of the trof and next
shortwave across Canada aids in an easterly trend. Temperatures in
the 30s to low 40s could be generous for Saturday, as may be the
forecast lows in the upper teens, but could start to see
moderating influences by Sunday. Kept a near normal temperature
forecast in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
A complicated TAF period ahead with stratus moving toward TAF
sites scheduled to arrive between 07Z and 08Z. MHK should be
firmly in stratus with IFR to LIFR cig heights and occasion vis
restrictions to 2SM or less. TOP/FOE will initially be on the
edge of the stratus, and could see IFR cigs, low MVFR cigs, or
even a bit of clearing. Vis should decrease to 3-5 SM regardless,
and have more confidence in IFR to low MVFR cigs will build in
after 10Z. Stratus looks likely to hold strong into late morning
and possibly well into the afternoon before scattering to VFR.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD DECK AROUND 4-5K FT AND PERSISTENT ALBEIT
LIGHT WINDS HAS DELAYED FOG FORMATION OR AT LEAST KEPT IT FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD/DENSE THUS FAR. LIGHTER WINDS AND A CLEAR
SKY HAS RESULTED IN IFR/LIFR AT THE ACADIANA TERMINALS...THOUGH
THE INFLUX OF CLOUDS FROM THE NW MAY DISRUPT THIS/RESULT IN VSBYS
BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...AS THEY ARE AT KBPT. OTHERWISE...THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL AT KLCH...WITH KAEX THE ONLY TERMINAL WHERE
IFR WAS REMOVED. INCREASING NORTH WINDS/DIURNAL MIXING WILL ERODE
ANY FOG BY MID MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF MONDAY.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLLAPSING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER C TO NE TX/NW LA...WITH CALM WINDS AREAWIDE. IR SAT
AND SFC OBS SHOWS MID LEVEL OVC DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TX TO C
LA...WITH SFC TEMPS/DEWPTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO NEAR 60/LOWER
60S. PATCHY GROUND FOG JUST OUTSIDE THE NWS OFFICE A HINT OF
THINGS TO COME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND OTHER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...GOING
FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY GROWING TO AREAS OF FOG
WITH VIS BELOW ONE MILE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL CONTINUES TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 190 TO THE
COAST AND THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE UPDATES...REFRESHED TEMP/DEWPT GRIDS AND ENHANCED THE FOG
WORDING FOR INLAND AREAS & COASTAL LAKES/BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS
OUT 20 NM. DEPENDING ON VIS TRENDS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH VIS
DRASTICALLY IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT INLAND. MARINE FOG MAY
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER
TONIGHT AS MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST SOUNDINGS AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST FOG FORMATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SAW LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM INHERITED TAF PACKAGE IN
THIS REGARD. VFR TO PREVAIL TOMORROW AMID GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VERY NICE SPRING DAY ON TAP AS TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S
MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. LOOKING FOR SOME FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES CLEARING TOMORROW WITH TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 70S... COULD SPRING FINALLY BE HERE. CLOSE MAYBE.
ANYWAY... A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK WITH THE
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK DOWN ON THE CHILLY SIDE TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 56 74 44 64 / 20 10 0 0
KBPT 56 74 48 67 / 20 10 0 0
KAEX 54 72 41 61 / 20 10 0 0
KLFT 56 73 44 62 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1029 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING
AND WITH IT...ANY CHANCE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AROUND 4-5KFT JUST SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR.
THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO DRIER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS A
RESULT...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS S
AR/NE TX AND N LA TERMINALS. IN FACT...AS OF 0430Z...THE ELD
TERMINAL VSBY HAS DROPPED TO 1/4SM WITH 1HDFT VV. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR WHICH HAS HIGH RH VALUES ACROSS VIRTUALLY
ALL OF OUR TERMINAL AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED THIS
POSSIBILITY TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
AFTER SUNRISE...LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. NNW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS BEFORE
DECOUPLING AROUND 00Z TUE.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROW ATTM...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN AR. HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING TO
THE GRIDS AREAWIDE.
HAVE LEFT 20 POPS ACROSS THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. RECENT CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD STILL SEE A
SHWR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.
/12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 49 71 40 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 69 37 60 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 69 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 68 39 63 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 66 36 60 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 72 42 70 45 / 10 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 72 42 68 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
LFK 53 74 43 71 45 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1022 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROW ATTM...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN AR. HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING TO
THE GRIDS AREAWIDE.
HAVE LEFT 20 POPS ACROSS THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. RECENT CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD STILL SEE A
SHWR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A HRO...GYI...SEP...JCT LINE AS OF 22Z THIS
AFTN. FRONT SHOULD REALLY PICK UP SPEED THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH ALL OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS BEFORE 06Z TNGT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD EXISTS WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
4-6KFT. THIS CU FIELD IS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS...ALBEIT A LITTLE
THIN IN AND AROUND THE TYR/GGG AND MLU TERMINALS WHERE MIXING HAS
HELPED TO CREATE A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVC. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
CLOUD COVER WAS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18-20KTS AND THUS...THE
TXK AND TYR TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIKELY LOST THEIR LOWER CEILINGS
WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY
EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS. THIS SEEMS POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL
FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THESE TWO
TERMINALS. MENTIONED VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT BYPASSES THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING A WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW. A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO AROUND
8-10KTS WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AND VERY
LITTLE OF THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES.
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SCATTERING OUT SOUTH OF I-20
TODAY BUT A THICK BAND OF CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER IT PASSES AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. MID
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NRN KS WILL DIVE SEWD AND
COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL ASCENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
DEVELOP A FEW SHWRS SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT. I CONSIDERED REMOVING
POPS COMPLETELY TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST WV LOOPS
THAT THE SHORTWAVE MAY TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE SFC BOUNDARY THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHWRS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
UPPER RIDGING AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE WAY TOO
COOL WITH THEIR MAX TEMP FORECASTS FOR TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM
BEHIND THE TROUGH IN OK...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN OURS WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES F. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS
UPSTREAM AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR...AND
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED OVERHEAD...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY SO HAVE GONE WARMER THAN MOST OF THE
MODELS. TEMPS MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES ELY WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES F ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AND THIS MAKES SENSE AS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO BUILD PRIOR
TO THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD COOL TEMPS BACK TO NEAR CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 49 71 40 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 69 37 60 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 69 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 68 39 63 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 66 36 60 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 72 42 70 45 / 10 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 72 42 68 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
LFK 53 74 43 71 45 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
Satellite imagery and surface obs show an extensive low cloud deck
slipping south while the western edge expands slowly westward.
NAM/RAP condensation pressure deficit progs as well as latest NAM
Bufr and RAP soundings show this moisture will be trapped under the
frontal inversion and thus difficult to break up while cold air
advection is occurring. With this in mind will increase cloud cover
overnight as well as into at least Monday afternoon. This now calls
into question Monday`s high temperatures. If we do indeed remain
mainly cloudy highs will struggle to reach 40 over the west central
CWA. New model guidance supports lowering highs for tomorrow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
Benign weather conditions will continue tonight through much of the
forecast period with no mentionable PoPs. NW flow aloft will
dominate as the region sits on the periphery of upper-level trough
after trough that rotates down from Canada, through the Great
Lakes region, and the Northeast. In the middle of the upcoming week,
phasing occurs across the center of the country as a shortwave
ejecting out of the Pacific NW becomes enveloped by longwave
trough rotating through the Great Lakes. This side lobe of colder
air will find its way into this forecast area, courtesy of surface
high pressure riding down from Canada via North Dakota on the
backside of the phasing with the longwave trough.
Behind the weak front that came through today, temperatures
tonight and tomorrow will be cooler than what was observed this
weekend. They`ll be closer to normal for this time of year but
still a few degrees above. Temps will then rise again for Tuesday,
level off Wednesday, then drop well off on Thursday due to the
aforementioned colder air expected to arrive. This chilly weather
will be very short-lived, however, as highs on Friday noticeably
rebound.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
Scattered 7kft deck with a few sprinkles has moved across the
terminals this evening ahead of an MVFR stratus deck that is now
pushing towards the terminals from the north. Light fog has begun to
develop out ahead of this stratus deck and upstream obs indicate vsby
could drop down to 3SM. Vsby looks to improve by tomorrow morning
with MVFR stratus deck hanging tight across the region through
tomorrow afternoon given most recent model analysis. Winds will
gradually shift to more easterly by the end of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND FOG APPEAR TO BE STATIONARY AT 08Z. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND DRAW THE
FRONT WEST TOWARD HIGHWAY 83. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
USES THE RAP AND ARW MODELS WHICH HAVE DISPOSED OF ANY SNOW COVER
FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 40S EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT FROM 15Z ONWARD AND
INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVENT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DROPS INTO SCNTL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT REFLECT THIS WITH 30S MOST AREAS...20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY CONFLUENCE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE FREEZING LOWS FORECAST TONIGHT...THE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCE NORTH OF ONEILL SHOULD NOT POSE AN ICE THREAT AND ALL MODEL
SOLNS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE CASE KEEPING THAT RISK WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF ONEILL
ARE NEAR OR AT FREEZING SUGGESTING IT WILL BE CLOSE.
LASTLY...ALL MODELS MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE FRONT. A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WAS USED FOR SKY COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LINED UP CLOSE
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE ARW AND RAP MODELS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST IS
AT HAND.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE TIME
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STAYS PERSISTENT WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS LEAVES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT PASS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...AND AS TIMING HAS IMPROVED WHEN COMPARING MODELS
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THEIR INFLUENCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES FURTHER
ONSHORE AND CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO BREAK
UP INTO SEVERAL WEAK PV ANOMALIES...WITH THE FIRST TWO PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE THIRD STAYING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
CLOSING OFF OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH THE NORTHERN PV
ANOMALIES...THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE SECOND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY...THEN A SECOND STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T SEE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES. DID INCREASE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY SLIGHTLY AS THE TREND
LATELY HAS BEEN WARMER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO AT
LEAST PUT HIGHS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR WINDS TO INCREASE WILL COME BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT
FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS GOING ALOFT AND 850MB WINDS
OF 30-40KTS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN STAY MIXED A BREEZY NIGHT WILL
BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DID LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE THE COLDER AIR PUSHING IN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY...BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SO EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850MB OR
800MB AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
VALUES EXPECTED. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO
TRENDS AND AS THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUNSHINE TO HELP WARM THINGS
DURING THE DAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT
THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY. IN GENERAL...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE COLDEST AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BELOW -20C WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES...WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND AT THIS TIME IS LOOKING TO
STAY EAST INTO THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS SO WILL
KEEP THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM ORIGINATES OVER THE ARCTIC SO IT WILL HAVE COLDER AIR
YET WITH IT...BUT AS IT STAYS FAIRLY COMPACT...UNLESS THE MODELS
CHANGE TUNES AND ALLOW A TRACK FURTHER WEST...LOCAL AREAS WON/T
EXPERIENCE THE MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST WERE TRENDED COLDER FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BECAUSE OF THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THESE STRONG
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY CONTINUE TO LIE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO STAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO DISALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION FROM OCCURRING AND MAY JUST GET SOME VIRGA AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGING VLIFR CONDITIONS /STRATUS AND FOG/
TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NEAR TERM MODELS STALL THE FRONT NEAR AN KANW TO KBBW
LINE...THUS DO NOT HAVE A MENTION IN EITHER KLBF OR KVTN TERMINAL
FORECASTS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-007-
009-010-028-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
225 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
AREA BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY, CHANGING THE
WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
WEST TO EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
TO THE NORTH AND 30S TO THE SOUTH. BEST PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOSTLY SNOW. THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
CHANGING MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW. IN NE PA MIXED BAG. TEMPS WILL COOL
AND PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM N TO S. CHASING HOURLY TEMPS
WITH THE SHARP GRADIENT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE DECENT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY COMING IN HIGHER THAN
FORECAST BUT EITHER WAY SOLIDLY IN WARNING. SNOW AMOUNTS HERE
SOUTH STILL YET TO OCCUR SO CONFIDENCE LOWER. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MODELS PULL OUT SNOW FASTER MONDAY NIGHT SO TIMES MAY
NEED TO BE SHAVED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WARNING. SNOW ENDING
AFTERNOON AND EVE NOT EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
230 PM UPDATE...
AS COMPLEX AS THIS FORECAST IS, FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
IT IS BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AN EXTREME THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS SITTING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40, WHILE
SYRACUSE IS STILL JUST 19. YOU WANT TO TALK EXTREMES. ITHACA HAS
DROPPED TO 27 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE JUST EAST AT CORTLAND
IT IS STILL 37! ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT AN EAST/WEST
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AT FIRST THE THERMAL GRADIENT
WON`T MOVE MUCH, SO THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WHERE
IT IS NOW OR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH.
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY, SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH,
OUR TEMPS WILL COOL AND THE EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. I THREW OUT THE MUCH WARMER 12Z GFS AS IT
IS ALREADY TOO WARM WITH 850 TEMPS OF +2C WHERE CURRENT MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TEMPS CLOSER TO 0C OR -1C. IN FACT WHILE THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z EURO ARE THE CLOSEST MODELS TO REALITY AT 850 MB,
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THEY ARE EVEN RUNNING A TAD WARM AT THAT
LEVEL. FOLLOWING THE NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND LOOKING AT
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE, WET BULBING AS
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY COOL THE COLUMN
ENOUGH TO CHANGE US OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE
TRANSITION A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS NY STATE, PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A
CORTLAND TO NORWICH LINE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET, AND SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT JUST RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR GREATER BINGHAMTON. EVEN HERE HOWEVER, COOLING
OF THE COLUMN WILL CHANGE US OVER TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 03Z/04Z AS
PRECIPITATION BECOMES STEADIER. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW, BUT ICE AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN NY STATE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 8" TO 12" ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE
WE STAY ALL SNOW. 5" TO 10" FROM THE FINGER LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MIXING IS A CONCERN. IN THE 5" TO 10" AREA,
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FINGER LAKES, WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE NY/PA LINE.
ACROSS NORTHERN PA, THE TRANSITION PROCESS TO A WINTRY MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW WILL BE MUCH, MUCH SLOWER. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA. WHILE WE MAY
SEE A WINTRY MIX EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS OF PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES, THE WYOMING VALLEY
SHOULD NOT SEE ANY CHANGEOVER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HERE WE DO NOT
EXPECT A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO MID MONDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN, ICE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT, AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS
SO. ICE AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO TENTHS ARE LIKELY, WITH
SNOW GENERALLY IN THE 3" TO 6" RANGE. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE NEAR THE NY/PA LINE. CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH MINOR SNOW ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF
SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRYING IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER MONDAY
NIGHT WILL MEAN AN END TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SINCE
WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE IDEAL SNOW
GROWTH REGION, IN INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
WHERE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP BELOW 60%. DRIER WEATHER
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS WITH READINGS AROUND 10 ACROSS THE FAR SE.
WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR NE PA AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE NRN CWA.
BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0225 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG RANGE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VERY
COLD PATTERN FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS WERE MADE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A CLIPPER SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN EASTWARD THROUGH PA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE REGION, GENERALLY LESS THAN
THREE INCHES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NY
TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
AS VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 SM. FOR KAVP, RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO IFR AND THEN BELOW ALTERNATE MINS BY MID
MORNING MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER WE STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ALSO, THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY
EVENING BUT AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
IT IN THE TAFS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE BUT UNDER 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT - TUE...MVFR CIG POSSIBLY LASTING MUCH OF TUE FOR SEVERAL
TERMINALS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION.
TUE NGT - WED MRNG...MAINLY VFR.
LATE WED - THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FROM AREAWIDE -SN.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE CNY TERMINALS FROM
-SHSN...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/RRM
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1254 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
AREA BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY, CHANGING THE
WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
WEST TO EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
TO THE NORTH AND 30S TO THE SOUTH. BEST PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOSTLY SNOW. THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
CHANGING MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW. IN NE PA MIXED BAG. TEMPS WILL COOL
AND PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM N TO S. CHASING HOURLY TEMPS
WITH THE SHARP GRADIENT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE DECENT. SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY COMING IN HIGHER THAN
FORECAST BUT EITHER WAY SOLIDLY IN WARNING. SNOW AMOUNTS HERE
SOUTH STILL YET TO OCCUR SO CONFIDENCE LOWER. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MODELS PULL OUT SNOW FASTER MONDAY NIGHT SO TIMES MAY
NEED TO BE SHAVED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WARNING. SNOW ENDING
AFTERNOON AND EVE NOT EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
230 PM UPDATE...
AS COMPLEX AS THIS FORECAST IS, FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
IT IS BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AN EXTREME THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS SITTING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40, WHILE
SYRACUSE IS STILL JUST 19. YOU WANT TO TALK EXTREMES. ITHACA HAS
DROPPED TO 27 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE JUST EAST AT CORTLAND
IT IS STILL 37! ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT AN EAST/WEST
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AT FIRST THE THERMAL GRADIENT
WON`T MOVE MUCH, SO THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WHERE
IT IS NOW OR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH.
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY, SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH,
OUR TEMPS WILL COOL AND THE EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. I THREW OUT THE MUCH WARMER 12Z GFS AS IT
IS ALREADY TOO WARM WITH 850 TEMPS OF +2C WHERE CURRENT MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TEMPS CLOSER TO 0C OR -1C. IN FACT WHILE THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z EURO ARE THE CLOSEST MODELS TO REALITY AT 850 MB,
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THEY ARE EVEN RUNNING A TAD WARM AT THAT
LEVEL. FOLLOWING THE NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND LOOKING AT
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE, WET BULBING AS
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY COOL THE COLUMN
ENOUGH TO CHANGE US OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE
TRANSITION A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS NY STATE, PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A
CORTLAND TO NORWICH LINE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET, AND SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT JUST RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR GREATER BINGHAMTON. EVEN HERE HOWEVER, COOLING
OF THE COLUMN WILL CHANGE US OVER TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 03Z/04Z AS
PRECIPITATION BECOMES STEADIER. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW, BUT ICE AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN NY STATE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 8" TO 12" ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE
WE STAY ALL SNOW. 5" TO 10" FROM THE FINGER LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MIXING IS A CONCERN. IN THE 5" TO 10" AREA,
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FINGER LAKES, WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE NY/PA LINE.
ACROSS NORTHERN PA, THE TRANSITION PROCESS TO A WINTRY MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW WILL BE MUCH, MUCH SLOWER. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA. WHILE WE MAY
SEE A WINTRY MIX EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS OF PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES, THE WYOMING VALLEY
SHOULD NOT SEE ANY CHANGEOVER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HERE WE DO NOT
EXPECT A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO MID MONDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN, ICE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT, AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS
SO. ICE AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO TENTHS ARE LIKELY, WITH
SNOW GENERALLY IN THE 3" TO 6" RANGE. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE NEAR THE NY/PA LINE. CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH MINOR SNOW ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF
SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRYING IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER MONDAY
NIGHT WILL MEAN AN END TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SINCE
WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE IDEAL SNOW
GROWTH REGION, IN INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
WHERE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP BELOW 60%. DRIER WEATHER
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS WITH READINGS AROUND 10 ACROSS THE FAR SE.
WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR NE PA AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE NRN CWA.
BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A CLIPPER SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN EASTWARD THROUGH PA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE REGION, GENERALLY LESS THAN
THREE INCHES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NY
TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
AS VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 SM. FOR KAVP, RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO IFR AND THEN BELOW ALTERNATE MINS BY MID
MORNING MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER WE STIL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ALSO, THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY
EVENING BUT AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
IT IN THE TAFS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE BUT UNDER 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT - TUE...MVFR CIG POSSIBLY LASTING MUCH OF TUE FOR SEVERAL
TERMINALS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION.
TUE NGT - WED MRNG...MAINLY VFR.
LATE WED - THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FROM AREAWIDE -SN.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE CNY TERMINALS FROM
-SHSN...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1140 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
CURRENT FORECAST ENCOMPASSING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY
LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE AREA OF
DENSE FOG/STRATUS OVER THE WEST ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WEST AND CENTRAL. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
WILL VERY SOON REACH THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY CLEAR. CONCUR WITH THIS IDEA AS SATELLITE SHOWS THE
STRATUS FILTERING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AT THIS MOMENT. THUS NO
CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE AS THE HRRR/RAP13 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. BASED ON THE
LATEST 00Z DATA AND BUFKIT TEMPERATURE PROFILES....WILL BE FOCUSING
IN ON FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN UPDATE WAS FOR DENSE FOG CONCERNS IN THE WEST. WENT BACK AND
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE EAST WHERE WE WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH OVERCAST SKIES DONT THINK WE
WILL DROP MUCH BUT WITH COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THINK THEY SHOULD DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES. STILL SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP. RECENT REPORT OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN BISMARCK. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHEREVER WE HAVE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOG AND WHAT TO DO
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AFTER LOOKING OVER LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...WX CAMS...ROAD REPORT AND LATEST SATELLITE...HAVE
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBILITIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTHWEST ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE. LATEST
RAP/HRRR SHOW THE STRATUS EXPANDING THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED
LOW FROM DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN NORTH THROUGH DUNN COUNTY.
CURRENT WX CAM SHOT FROM NEW TOWN LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG. LATEST
ROAD REPORT ALSO INDICATES VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE
ACROSS PARTS OF WILLIAMS COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THOUGHT WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO DROP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY...AND WE MAY
BE ABLE TO LATER BUT AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH VERIFICATION TO KEEP IT
GOING. THINK THE FOG SHOULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND
SLOPE COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT SO INSTEAD OF ADDING THEM LATER WILL
INCLUDE THEM NOW. LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WHICH WILL BE OVER THIS AREA BY THEN. OTHERWISE...SPREAD
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 03 UTC. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG STILL NOTED ON WEATHER CAMS OVER MAINLY DUNN COUNTY...BUT DOES
EXTEND NORTH INTO EASTERN WILLIAMS AND WESTERN MOUNTRAIL. ALSO
SOUTH INTO FAR WESTERN STARK AND PORTIONS OF MERCER...OLIVER...
MORTON AND GRANT COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY
MID EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY EXTEND DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT THIS WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN SPREADING THE STRATUS INTO THIS AREA. THUS
WILL JUST EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY AND WE CAN CANCEL EARLY IF
NEEDED.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASED ON WEBCAM TRENDS FROM 20 TO 21 UTC...ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARCHING FROM
WILLIAMS AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH GRANT AND MORTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 00 UTC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO IF THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRATUS BANK WHERE THE DENSE FOG RESIDES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...OR IF THE EASTWARD EROSION WILL
HALT WITH DECREASING INSOLATION. THUS...WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO EVALUATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EAST OF HIGHWAY
83....DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE SNOW WITH A POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS TO RISE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL. FOR MONDAY...THE SIMILAR SETUP CONTINUES OF HIGHS
IN THE SOUTHWEST BEING MUCH WARMER...NAMELY THE 40S WHERE SOME SUN
MAY BREAK OUT...TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS UNDER A
BROAD STRATUS DECK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY EVENING: A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
BRINGS WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: COLDER AIR WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT AND JAMESTOWN. FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE.
TUESDAY: A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED IN A BROAD AREA MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOW EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST...AND FREEZING
RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI. COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW EXCEPT DURING
THE EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE A TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ICE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52. SHOULD THE NEXT MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A DIFFERENT STORM TRACK WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A COLDER
(OR WARMER) SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL AFFECT GREATLY THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AND HENCE THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH COLDER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LATEST HRRR/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG FOR KISN...KDIK...KBIS AND
KMOT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING BUT IFR
CEILING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD OF 06 UTC TUESDAY. KJMS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR FOG. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY 06 UTC TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM
00-06 UTC TUESDAY. BROUGHT RAIN TO KDIK AND FZRA TO KISN AROUND 01
UTC. THEN FZRA TO KBIS AND FZRA AND -SN TO KMOT AROUND 04 UTC.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ009-
010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
335 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN LOW
STRATUS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO LIKELY AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. HAVE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 15Z. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS AREA...AND SUGGESTS VISIBILITIES SHOULD START IMPROVING BY MID
MORNING...WITH GREGORY COUNTY THE LAST TO IMPROVE. FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
DEEP...BUT A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM IS PROBABLY
HOLDING DRIZZLE AT BAY AT THIS POINT. WILL LEAVE A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING THOUGH...GIVEN THE DEEP SATURATION AND MODELS
HINTING IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL LIFT. AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS...CUT BACK HIGHS
TODAY AS NOT THINKING WE WARM MUCH. SO LOOKING AT MAINLY UPPER 20S
EAST TO 30S WEST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON A SOLUTION SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH THAN THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE
BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHEST QPF STAYING NORTH. STILL SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF LIFT MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL
GREATLY CUT INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THROUGH 12Z GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF...GREATEST IN THE NORTH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. THE NORTHERN SOLUTION ALSO MEANS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXING IN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL LIFT BECOMES QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE LIFT COLLOCATED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATION FROM 0 TO 1 KM. THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO EVEN IF A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE
PRECIPITATION STAYS TO OUR NORTH...STILL MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH UNTREATED SURFACES BECOMING
ICY. SOUTHERN EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN...AND SINCE MOST OF THE ISSUES
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE NEW GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
ALL 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES THE ECMWF AND GEM. AT THIS TIME...OUR
FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER DIV Q FORCING...AND
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALSO. ALL OF
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A LARGE QPF EVENT ON TUESDAY. STILL...HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING WITH A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING...WITH THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRY MID LEVELS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AT LEAST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING. BUT FOR NOW...WENT THE MEASURABLE POPS ROUTE.
IN ADDITION WITH A WARM LAYER WELL ABOVE FREEZING FROM 850-
750MB...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT COMING IN TUESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT WARMER...WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...AND 50S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES. THIS SHOULD MELT ANY
ICE WHICH FALLS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAMATICALLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES
AND PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE FROM 925MB-
850MB...DECIDED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
TOO THIN TO SUPPORT FLURRIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
TO MID 20S SOUTH...AND WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW ZERO IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
ON THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. BUT SO FAR
THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION YET IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN.
STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR COMING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING FOR FRIDAY A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BECAUSE IF THE FRONT
WOULD HAPPEN TO SPEED UP JUST 3 TO 6 HOURS...OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY COULD BE A FULL TEN DEGREES COLDER. BUT RIGHT NOW MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT DAY ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY... HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CHILLY BUT PROBABLY NOT BRUTALLY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL REMAIN PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS GENERALLY MVFR-IFR RANGE...BUT LOCALIZED
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MN...AS WELL AS
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY. OPTED TO INCLUDE BRIEF
PERIOD OF THIS FOR KHON/KFSD TAFS DUE TO IMPACT FROM EVEN MINIMAL
ICING...ESPECIALLY DURING 08Z-12Z WINDOW WHEN THE MORNING FLIGHTS
ARE BEING PREPPED.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...
WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR...BUT CEILINGS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ICING EVENT TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
10/06Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ050-057-
063.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS
1. CAN CLOUDS CLEAR TODAY...AND WHERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST...RIDGING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA...AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN
MN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THOSE CLOUDS
WERE OVER TOP OF AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK...STRETCHING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF MN...IA AND A LOT OF WI. HOWEVER...CLEARING WAS
EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WI MARCHING SOUTHWESTWARD...RESULTING FROM
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO. THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...DESPITE A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE.
925MB TEMPS RANGED FROM -7 TO -11C PER RAP ANALYSIS.
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY QUIET. UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND GET PUSHED EASTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST BREAKING APART AND MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
12Z TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THE MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE
CURRENT STRATUS DECK AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. LOOKING AT THE 925-
850MB WIND FLOW...TO SEE IF THAT CLEARING IN NORTHEAST WI CAN MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THAT FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BACK
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL HAVE DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
MIX SOME...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WOULD STAND TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SCATTER/CLEAR OUT. FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEST...IT COULD EASILY STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD TRENDS AND 925MB TEMPS ONLY
FORECAST TO WARM MAYBE 1C TODAY...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB. MAYBE WE GET A 5 DEGREE RISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST
TOWARDS CENTRAL WI WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WHERE IT
CLEARS OUT. OTHERWISE MORE TEENS TO LOW 20S SEEMS REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
2. WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
4. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH YET A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. DPVA
FROM BOTH TROUGHS COMBINED WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FIRST ONE...WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE WITH FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF I-90
AND GIVEN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE 2 SHORTWAVES...MOST PROBABLE
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. TRIED TO
CONVEY THIS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. NORTH OF I-90 CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR SNOW WITH
NO ISSUES OF A WARM LAYER OR LOSING ICE IN THE CLOUD. SOUTH OF I-90
BOTH OF THOSE ISSUES EXIST...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-90. THUS...THE AMOUNT OF ANY SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. REGARDING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UP HIGH AND
THIN...ANTICIPATING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AROUND 10 TO 1. WITH GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.2-0.3 INCH RANGE
WHERE SNOW IS THE MAIN P-TYPE...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR IN TAYLOR COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
COMING OFF THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA...PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THE
TROUGH BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED AWAY BY THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE TROUGH BRINGS IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR. NORTHWEST 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING THE
ASSOCIATED TEMPS TO PLUMMET FROM -8 TO -12C AT 18Z WED TO -20 TO
-25C AT 12Z THU. THOSE 12Z THU READINGS ARE COLDER THAN BEFORE
AND THUS HAVE HAD TO LOWER LOWS A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOWS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS ARE MAKING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOK MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING
TO 850- 900MB...30 KT GUSTS SEEM EASILY POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WILL
CAUSE ANY SNOW FROM TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
BLOW AROUND. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE
FORECAST.
THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY SO LOWERED
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...BRIEF UPPER RIDGING THEN COMES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO BRING IN
WARMER AIR. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -7 TO -12C BY 00Z SAT ACCORDING TO
THE 09.00Z EC/GFS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCOMPANY THIS WARMER AIR
FOR FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY...
CAUSED BY A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN JUST NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA...A GREAT SOURCE REGION FOR VERY
COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FALL TO -2 TO
-2.5 ON SATURDAY PER THE 09.00Z EC/GFS...AND AS SUCH THE MEX
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MAX T GUIDANCE ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO A STRONG SURGE OF
WIND SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH MORE WIND CHILL ISSUES. FOR NOW
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS WEAKER ON
WINDS AND WARMER ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE POTENT TROUGH DIGS AND HEADS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LARGE EXPANSE OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN WORKING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. THE 09.00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRIER
AIR AND CONTINUES TO WORK IT SOUTHWEST AND OVERSPREADS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 09.00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE AMBITIOUS WITH
THE DRYING AND WOULD SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT MONDAY
MORNING. THE 09.03Z RAP IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF ITS MODEL RUN TIME...WHICH IS 21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING TRENDS OF THE NAM AND RAP AND HOLD THE
CLOUDS IN UNTIL VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER THEM
OUT FOR VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1114 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER PCPN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO A WEST COAST RIDGE...BREAKING IT DOWN A BIT...BUT SLIDING THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON TUE. BROAD THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LEADS THE SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 280-295 K SURFACES. SOME QG
CONVERGENCE WITH IT...STRONGER IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. ITS NOT AN
OVERLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH MUCH OF ITS LIFT FROM THE SOMEWHAT DEEP
BUT NOT STRONG THERMODYNAMICS.
WHILE THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE QUICKER BY 6-12 HOURS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF.
THE 08.12Z EC RUN IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT ALL
SAY PCPN IS LIKELY ALONG I-90 AND NORTH. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER IN
THE NORTH WITH THIS HIGH CONSENSUS...AND TAKE A BLEND FOR TIMING.
SEVERAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PCPN TYPE AS A WARM LAYER A LOFT AND LOSS
OF ICE IN THE CLOUD WILL BE FACTORS.
SATURATION INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM...AND NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO HAVE ICE IN THE
CLOUD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA - ESPECIALLY I-90 AND NORTH.
SOUTH OF THERE ITS TOUCH AND GO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ICE. AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS EAST TUE NIGHT THERE LOOKS TO BE A LOSS OF ICE FOR
AWHILE...WITH DEEPER SATURATION RETURNING AND THUS ICE IN
THE CLOUD...IN THE DEFORMATION REGION OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
FOR AMOUNTS...BULK OF THE QPF RESTS TO THE NORTH. DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW PER THE SREF AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. COBB
OUTPUT CONCURS...WITH GENERALLY 10:1 OR LESS FOR SNOW RATIOS. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT 2 TO POTENTIALLY 4 INCHES NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 10 IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI...SOUTH TO I-90 ABOUT 1-2 INCHES.
FURTHER SOUTH A WINTRY MIX WILL KEEP AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...BUT ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
COULD NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT FOR SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SOUTH IF THE FREEZING PCPN IS
REALIZED AND RESULTS IN IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE LOW FOR WED SHOULD RAMP WINDS UP.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SNOW FALLS - AND HOW MUCH - THERE COULD BE
SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM FROM
TUE...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD THU NIGHT. SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR ACCOMPANIES THE HIGH...AND NAEFS 850 MB ANOMALIES SIT AT -1/-2
WED NIGHT INTO FRI. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HOLDING
NORTHWESTERLY...THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STICK
AROUND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SOME SUGGESTIONS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A WEAK RIPPLE IN THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY. QUICK MOVER...BUT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LARGE EXPANSE OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN WORKING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. THE 09.00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DRIER
AIR AND CONTINUES TO WORK IT SOUTHWEST AND OVERSPREADS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 09.00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE AMBITIOUS WITH
THE DRYING AND WOULD SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT MONDAY
MORNING. THE 09.03Z RAP IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF ITS MODEL RUN TIME...WHICH IS 21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING TRENDS OF THE NAM AND RAP AND HOLD THE
CLOUDS IN UNTIL VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER THEM
OUT FOR VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
703 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA WHILE LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE DELMARVA. LOW PRESSURE STAYS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF
PRECIP COVERAGE. THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENT IS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH THE WARM NOSE ALOFT MAKING FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
COAST WITH SNOW...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE SECOND HALF OF THIS EVENT WILL BE
CHANGING PRIMARILY TO SNOW AND SLEET AT THE COAST WITH SOME
LEFTOVER FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM NOSE WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER.
00Z RUNS OF NAM AND ECMWF DEPICT BETTER QPF TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS
THAN THE CMC AND GFS. 00Z ECMWF SHOWING QPF THAT WOULD AGREE WITH
THE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST OF THE 04Z HRRR SO WILL BE RELYING MORE
UPON THE ECMWF FOR POP TRENDS.
MUCH OF THE SNOW AND ICE WILL BE ONGOING UNTIL AROUND 18Z FROM A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDING BOUNDARY LAYER
ANALYSIS. THE SIGNATURES WITHIN MSLP SHOW PROMINENT COLD AIR
DAMMING. THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE INCREASING WITH A
PERSISTENT WARM NOSE AROUND 900MB...HELPING SET UP FOR PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NYC/COASTAL AREAS OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS LONG ISLAND. FARTHER NORTH THE
WARM NOSE WILL MAKE ITS APPEARANCE BRIEFLY BUT SNOW WILL BE DOMINANT
BEFORE AND AFTER THAT TIME.
WHAT MAKES THIS A CHALLENGING FORECAST IS HOW WELL THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THE WARM NOSE AND ITS DEPTH RELATIVE TO COLDER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. SLEET COULD VERY WELL BE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY WITH
LESS OF A WARM NOSE BUT A THICKER NEAR SURFACE LAYER BELOW
FREEZING. THIS OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG
ISLAND THIS MORNING AS CONVEYED BY THE BRIGHT BANDING SIGNATURE
WITHIN THE OKX DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY.
QPF IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF LARGER UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE FORECAST
MODELS AND WHILE IT COULD TREND HIGHER IF GFS IS CORRECT...NAM AND
ECMWF AS AFOREMENTIONED ARE BETTER MATCHING UP WITH OBSERVATIONS IN
RADAR SO THIS WOULD MAKE FOR LIGHTER QPF...A GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.5
LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH AROUND 0.2 FOR NYC/URBAN NE NJ/LONG ISLAND
AND GRADUALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO THE NORTH. SO WITH THE
ICE...ACCRETION WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH WHILE SNOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE 4 TO 6 INCHES STORM TOTAL...THIS BEING
SPREAD OUT ACROSS NEARLY A 24 HOUR PERIOD.
FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ECMWF AND NAM12 RAW 2M TEMPS WERE
USED...YIELDING MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WINTER EVENT WILL BE ONGOING WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC SLIGHTLY DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS DECREASING.
THERE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW LEFTOVER GOING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE AND RETENTION OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HENCE
ICE NUCLEI...NO FURTHER ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE STAYING AS MAINLY SNOW. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
NAM12 2M TEMPS AND GMOS.
FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT WITH MORE
SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HIGHS FORECAST ARE IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WERE
TAKEN FROM 2/3 GMOS AND 1/3 NAM12 2M TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE UPPER NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE ONE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFY...AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AND AN ALL LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME WITH THE STORM QUICK MOVING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
WEST. THE HIGH QUICKLY WEAKENS AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS WEST AND SOUTH...MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS LOW...WITH RATHER LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR WILL BE RE ENFORCED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER
SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INLAND...AND APPROACHING ZERO NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED IN THE NY METRO TODAY
WAVES LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO IFR. WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO SNOW THIS AFTN
FOR MOST TERMINALS. A LIGHT PCPN EVENT OVERALL...BUT POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT FROZEN/FREEZING
PCPN.
NE WINDS NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 20 KT.
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS...
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/ISP...1-2 INCHES...WITH UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICE.
KHPN/KBDR/KGON...2-3 INCHES...WITH UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE.
KSWF...4-7 INCHES.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. CHANGE
TO SNOW MAY BE FORECAST TO OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO TOO LATE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. SNOW MIGHT
NOT BE PREVALENT IN THE WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING. CHANGE TO SNOW
MAY BE FORECAST TO OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO TOO LATE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. CHANGE
TO SNOW MAY BE FORECAST TO OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO TOO LATE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. SNOW MIGHT
NOT BE PREVALENT IN THE WINTRY MIX BEFORE 15-16Z. CHANGE TO SNOW
MAY BE FORECAST TO OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO TOO LATE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR TODAY. .
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE IN THE WINTRY MIX BEFORE 15Z.
CHANGE TO SNOW MAY BE FORECAST TO OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO TOO LATE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MVFR CIGS AM. VFR PM. NORTH GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
.TUE NIGHT...VFR.
.WED...MVFR CIGS.
.THU...MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW...BECOMING VFR LATE WITH
NW WINDS G40KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G40KT...DIMINISHING FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. GALES FOR THE OCEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...COULD DIMINISH
EARLIER TONIGHT THAN FORECAST. WIND GUSTS WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
THRESHOLD SO LEFT THE END TIMING AS BEFORE AND UPGRADED TO GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO 6 TO 9 FT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
COULD LINGER ON TUESDAY BUT A DOWNWARD TREND IS FORECAST AND
CONDITIONS SEEMED MARGINAL SO SCA WAS NOT YET EXTENDED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS ARE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LONG TERM SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON
THE OCEAN REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING EAST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS ALSO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ON THE OCEAN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND
REMAIN BELOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.1 TO 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED.
A TENTH OR TWO OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NEW YORK CITY ALL HAZARDS RADIO...FREQUENCY 162.550 MHZ...IS OFF
THE AIR DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE ISSUE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
635 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING
DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH
TODAY...ONLY REACHING MID 20S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS
SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IN STORE WITH ONLY FORECAST ISSUES BEING ENDING
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHEN/IF SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME WEAK LIFT WAS REMAINING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE AREA. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND A FEW
SPOTS...INCLUDING HERE AT THE OFFICE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COURTESY OF THE LOSS OF ANY ICE CRYSTAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FZDZ FOR SE HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH 11Z BEFORE ENDING AS WAVE EXIT THE AREA. DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY ICING ISSUES BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
GREATER CONCERN IN TERMS OF ROADS WILL LIKELY BE FROM RECENT
MELTED SNOW REFREEZING ON SURFACES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COLDER
AIR...WILL CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPTICK IN TEMPS TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS MAYBE SEEING A 3 TO 5 DEGREE CLIMB AT BEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS WAS LOCATED FROM ALPENA MI TO NEAR
GREEN BAY AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. 6Z RUN OF NAM TRIES TO BRING
CLEARING INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE RUC AND
LOCAL WRF A TOUCH SLOWER...MORE CLOSER TO 00Z. HAVE KEPT WITH SLOWER
TREND FOR NOW WITH SOME THIN SPOTS LIKELY TO APPEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AND SINGLE DIGITS NORTH. MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN
THE NORTH IF SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FAR NORTH/NE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
ARCTIC STREAM SW OVR WRN NUNAVUT THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SEWD EARLY
IN THE PD AND MARKEDLY DEEPEN ERN NOAM TROUGHING AS SECONDARY ARCTIC
WAVE FOLLOWS LT PD. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR W/TEMP DEPARTURES OF 20+ DEGREES BLO NORMAL LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE PD.
LEAD ARCTIC DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACRS THE LAKES ON WED W/GENERALLY
LTL FANFARE LOCALLY AS SW AND ASSOCD MSTR PLUME PASS WELL NORTH AND
DISCOUNTED ALLBLEND POPS W/GROSS MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDING DRY HERE.
HWVR PASSAGE OF ARCTIC SFC BNDRY WED NIGHT ALG W/VIGOROUS HGT FALLS
ALOFT TIED TO SHARPENING H7-5 TROUGH ALOFT AND MORE FVRBL CYCLONIC
LL FLW TRAJECTORIES WITHIN BLOSSOMING LK AGGREGATE TROUGHING WARRANT
AN APPRECIABLE BOOST TO LK EFFECT SHSN CONTG INTO THU. AHD OF THIS
FTR...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL MAKE WED THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD.
SECONDARY FOLLOWING ARCTIC WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACRS THE LAKES FRI
NIGHT W/LK EFFECT LIKELY DVLPG IN ITS WAKE LT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OTRWS TEMPS TURNING SHARPLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
IFR CONDITIONS HOLDING STRONG AT KFWA WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE
PERSISTING FOR PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDS SUGGEST THE FZDZ SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE WENT WITH PREDOMINATE
MENTION THROUGH 14Z AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AS FOR KSBN...MVFR CIGS IN PLACE WITH BRIEF EXCURTIONS TO VFR IN
NARROW AREA OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS. 2 OF THE HI RES MODELS
SUGGESTED THIS MAY OCCUR AND SHOW THE CURRENT CONDITIONS HOLDING
ON. BIT SKEPTICAL THAT IT CAN HOLD ON TO THE HIGHER CIGS GIVEN
UPSTREAM OBS. HOWEVER...HAS BEEN THE CASE NOW FOR OVER 3 HOURS SO
MAY BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM LK MICHIGAN AND THE NE FLOW. WILL GO WITH
CONTINUED MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS EVENING DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH SITES WITH QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
903 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
GONNA SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE AND EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL NOON. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...WITH NE
SECTIONS OF WICHITA METRO NOW BEGINNING TO HAVE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY BURN OFF
THE FOG UNTIL AROUND NOON...AS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST RUNS
INTO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT AIR. SO THINK FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
STUBBORN TO BURN OFF...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS.
KETCHAM
UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
DENSE FOG IS ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VISIBILITY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS REPORTED TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG AND BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 15Z. VISIBILITIES MAY LIFT SOME AFTER
INITIAL DROP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...BUT FEEL EVEN PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG I-70.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT:
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH/
WEST THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED. SOME CONCERN FOR TRANSIENT DENSE
FOG ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR...WITH 1-4 MILE VISIBILITY
FOG FURTHER INTO THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. BEST SETUP FOR DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE LOWS A BIT TRICKY AS WELL.
TUE-WED:
WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING DURING THE DAY WED. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ROLLER COASTER DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
INSOLATION VARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH FRONT LOOK TO BE QUITE
LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. BOTH SHOW A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL US...SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA ON SAT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SUN. ALWAYS A TOUGH
CALL...DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT...AS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW COULD SHUNT COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE WAS
SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
CHALLENGING MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MOVING IN WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY
FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. FEEL KRSL/KSLN
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH KHUT/KICT AND
KCNU HAVING SOME MODERATE MVFR IMPACTS. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT
KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING. THIS PROGRESSION WILL STOP BY MID MORNING
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 35 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 58 35 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 34 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 61 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 63 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 52 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 50 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 49 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-083.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
852 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Extended dense fog advisory until 11 am for Republic, Cloud and
Ottawa Counties as visibilities continue to be around 1/4 mile.
Expect gradual improvement over the next couple of hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Backdoor cold front has pushed southwest through the forecast
area overnight as another weak wave tracked into the mid MS
valley. Behind the front cold air advection has caused fog and
stratus as a weak surface ridge slides through NE and into KS
later today. The lowest visibilities are currently located on the
western edge of the fog/stratus over south central NE. Winds
should decrease as the ridge approaches the forecast area limiting
the amount of mixing as most sites are only a few degrees away
from saturation. Several runs of the SREF and HRRR show that dense
fog may try to build into north central KS this morning therefore
have kept the mention of fog in the forecast. Not confident if the
visibilities will warrant an advisory at this point and or when
they will improve. It appears that eastern KS will only experience
minor visibility restrictions through mid morning hours. The more
solid fog in north central KS may try to hold on until late
morning, but should lift into a stratus deck by noon. Stratus and
or fog should push over the entire area within the next few hours
although the question is how long it sticks around today. As of
now most of the guidance is suggesting clouds last most of the
daytime hours, but may begin to scatter out on the southern edge.
Regardless have lowered the high temperatures today due to the
uncertainty of the cloud cover, which should roughly range from 40
in far northeast KS to 50 in central KS. By tonight the surface
high retreats eastward allowing return flow. The better chances
for stratus tonight will push slightly westward into central KS
and central NE ahead of the next shortwave forecast to track over
the northern plains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Another above normal day is on track for Tuesday, as area remains
between systems and under warm nose aloft. Highs forecast to mix
from the lower 50s northeast to near 60 in the west. GFS is faster
with the arrival of the front and has it through much of the area
by sunrise while NAM remains slower, bisecting the CWA by sunrise.
Think a well mixed boundary layer will keep overnight lows up in
the 30s, and may rise in the morning if frontal boundary is
slower, but otherwise expect steady to falling temperatures on
Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s may occur early. Lows
fall quickly into the teens as the cold high moves due south into
the Central Plains. Cold advection slowly moderates and shifts
east into Thursday but highs only around 20 in the northeast to
lower 30s in the southern counties.
Large scale longwave trof setting up over the Eastern half of the
US is persistent in sending rounds of cold air nearly due
southward out of central Canada into the Plains for late week into
the weekend. Friday still a transition day between cold surges and
brings a rebound back into the 40s to near 50 for high
temperatures before more cold air comes southward for Saturday.
Trend for the eastern trof is deeper and farther south and west,
however it does appear to progress to the east later in the
weekend as the upper jet rounds the base of the trof and next
shortwave across Canada aids in an easterly trend. Temperatures in
the 30s to low 40s could be generous for Saturday, as may be the
forecast lows in the upper teens, but could start to see
moderating influences by Sunday. Kept a near normal temperature
forecast in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MVFR/IFR conditions will continue through the afternoon hours.
Visibilities are expected to improve later this morning. The main
uncertainty will be the timing of when the stratus scatters out.
For now have gone with conditions improving around 19-20Z although
the clouds edge could set up near the taf sites. There is a chance
visibilities could decrease to MVFR early tomorrow morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR
KSZ008-020-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
741 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
DENSE FOG IS ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VISIBILITY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS REPORTED TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG AND BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 15Z. VISIBILITIES MAY LIFT SOME AFTER
INITIAL DROP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...BUT FEEL EVEN PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG I-70.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT:
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH/
WEST THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED. SOME CONCERN FOR TRANSIENT DENSE
FOG ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR...WITH 1-4 MILE VISIBILITY
FOG FURTHER INTO THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. BEST SETUP FOR DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE LOWS A BIT TRICKY AS WELL.
TUE-WED:
WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING DURING THE DAY WED. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ROLLER COASTER DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
INSOLATION VARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH FRONT LOOK TO BE QUITE
LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. BOTH SHOW A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL US...SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA ON SAT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SUN. ALWAYS A TOUGH
CALL...DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT...AS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW COULD SHUNT COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE WAS
SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
CHALLENGING MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MOVING IN WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY
FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. FEEL KRSL/KSLN
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH KHUT/KICT AND
KCNU HAVING SOME MODERATE MVFR IMPACTS. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT
KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING. THIS PROGRESSION WILL STOP BY MID MORNING
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 35 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 58 35 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 34 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 61 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 63 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 52 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 50 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 49 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-083.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
654 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG AND BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 15Z. VISIBILITIES MAY LIFT SOME AFTER
INITIAL DROP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...BUT FEEL EVEN PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG I-70.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT:
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH/
WEST THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED. SOME CONCERN FOR TRANSIENT DENSE
FOG ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR...WITH 1-4 MILE VISIBILITY
FOG FURTHER INTO THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. BEST SETUP FOR DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE LOWS A BIT TRICKY AS WELL.
TUE-WED:
WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING DURING THE DAY WED. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ROLLER COASTER DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
INSOLATION VARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH FRONT LOOK TO BE QUITE
LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. BOTH SHOW A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL US...SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA ON SAT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SUN. ALWAYS A TOUGH
CALL...DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT...AS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW COULD SHUNT COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE WAS
SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
CHALLENGING MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MOVING IN WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY
FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. FEEL KRSL/KSLN
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH KHUT/KICT AND
KCNU HAVING SOME MODERATE MVFR IMPACTS. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT
KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING. THIS PROGRESSION WILL STOP BY MID MORNING
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 35 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 58 35 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 34 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 61 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 63 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 52 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 50 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 49 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
048-049.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
559 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT:
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH/
WEST THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED. SOME CONCERN FOR TRANSIENT DENSE
FOG ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR...WITH 1-4 MILE VISIBILITY
FOG FURTHER INTO THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. BEST SETUP FOR DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE LOWS A BIT TRICKY AS WELL.
TUE-WED:
WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING DURING THE DAY WED. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ROLLER COASTER DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
INSOLATION VARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH FRONT LOOK TO BE QUITE
LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. BOTH SHOW A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL US...SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA ON SAT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SUN. ALWAYS A TOUGH
CALL...DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT...AS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW COULD SHUNT COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE WAS
SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
CHALLENGING MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MOVING IN WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY
FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. FEEL KRSL/KSLN
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH KHUT/KICT AND
KCNU HAVING SOME MODERATE MVFR IMPACTS. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT
KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING. THIS PROGRESSION WILL STOP BY MID MORNING
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 35 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 58 35 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 54 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 54 34 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 60 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 61 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 63 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 52 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 55 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 50 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 49 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 52 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
534 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Backdoor cold front has pushed southwest through the forecast
area overnight as another weak wave tracked into the mid MS
valley. Behind the front cold air advection has caused fog and
stratus as a weak surface ridge slides through NE and into KS
later today. The lowest visibilities are currently located on the
western edge of the fog/stratus over south central NE. Winds
should decrease as the ridge approaches the forecast area limiting
the amount of mixing as most sites are only a few degrees away
from saturation. Several runs of the SREF and HRRR show that dense
fog may try to build into north central KS this morning therefore
have kept the mention of fog in the forecast. Not confident if the
visibilities will warrant an advisory at this point and or when
they will improve. It appears that eastern KS will only experience
minor visibility restrictions through mid morning hours. The more
solid fog in north central KS may try to hold on until late
morning, but should lift into a stratus deck by noon. Stratus and
or fog should push over the entire area within the next few hours
although the question is how long it sticks around today. As of
now most of the guidance is suggesting clouds last most of the
daytime hours, but may begin to scatter out on the southern edge.
Regardless have lowered the high temperatures today due to the
uncertainty of the cloud cover, which should roughly range from 40
in far northeast KS to 50 in central KS. By tonight the surface
high retreats eastward allowing return flow. The better chances
for stratus tonight will push slightly westward into central KS
and central NE ahead of the next shortwave forecast to track over
the northern plains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Another above normal day is on track for Tuesday, as area remains
between systems and under warm nose aloft. Highs forecast to mix
from the lower 50s northeast to near 60 in the west. GFS is faster
with the arrival of the front and has it through much of the area
by sunrise while NAM remains slower, bisecting the CWA by sunrise.
Think a well mixed boundary layer will keep overnight lows up in
the 30s, and may rise in the morning if frontal boundary is
slower, but otherwise expect steady to falling temperatures on
Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s may occur early. Lows
fall quickly into the teens as the cold high moves due south into
the Central Plains. Cold advection slowly moderates and shifts
east into Thursday but highs only around 20 in the northeast to
lower 30s in the southern counties.
Large scale longwave trof setting up over the Eastern half of the
US is persistent in sending rounds of cold air nearly due
southward out of central Canada into the Plains for late week into
the weekend. Friday still a transition day between cold surges and
brings a rebound back into the 40s to near 50 for high
temperatures before more cold air comes southward for Saturday.
Trend for the eastern trof is deeper and farther south and west,
however it does appear to progress to the east later in the
weekend as the upper jet rounds the base of the trof and next
shortwave across Canada aids in an easterly trend. Temperatures in
the 30s to low 40s could be generous for Saturday, as may be the
forecast lows in the upper teens, but could start to see
moderating influences by Sunday. Kept a near normal temperature
forecast in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MVFR/IFR conditions will continue through the afternoon hours.
Visibilities are expected to improve later this morning. The main
uncertainty will be the timing of when the stratus scatters out.
For now have gone with conditions improving around 19-20Z although
the clouds edge could set up near the taf sites. There is a chance
visibilities could decrease to MVFR early tomorrow morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ008-020-
034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
525 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A STRONG 100+ KNOT 250 MB JET WILL BE OBSERVED NORTH OF
THIS RIDGE, WITH ITS MAXIMUM LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY NOON AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER MILD DAY IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS TO AROUND 50
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
DRY AND WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S CENTRAL TO 60S FAR
WEST, ON THURSDAY, WARMING INTO THE 60S FRIDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH AN ARCTIC SURGE INTO
THE PLAINS AS A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GO AHEAD AND START TRENDING TOWARD COLDER HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS, AND AROUND 60 TO 65 FAR
SOUTHWEST, WITH THIS ARCTIC SURGE. ACTUAL HIGHS COULD BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND
EVEN COLDER. CONSENSUS WAS REACHED TO AT LEAST TREND TOWARD THE
COLDER TEMPS IN THE GRIDS THAN WHAT THE NEW REGIONAL GUIDANCE HAD.
FOR SUNDAY, WARMER RETURN FLOW MOVES BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL APPROACH THE KHYS TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING PER HRRR AND RAP MODEL FORECASTS AS A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEVELOPS
TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 10-15KT. SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR KDDC AND KHYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 38 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 70 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 72 40 68 36 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 73 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 66 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
P28 66 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
917 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9AM UPDATE...
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF PGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO FREEZING OF ANY
REMAINING LIQUID THAT REMAINS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. ISSUED AN
SPS TO COVER THIS RE-FREEZE THREAT.
ELSEWHERE...THE SEEMINGLY INNOCUOUS ECHOES THAT EXISTED NEAR CMH
2-3HRS AGO HAVE BLOSSOMED AND ARE SPREADING LIGHT RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ERN OH THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV AND EXTREME SW PA.
THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS PROGGED WELL AND WAS USED AS A BASELINE
FOR SHIFTING THIS PRECIPITATION EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR TEMPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO YIELD SFC TEMPS FAVORABLE OF MOSTLY RAIN FOR THIS
REMAINING PRECIPITATION. LIGHT FZRA OR SLEET IS MIXING ALONG THE BACK
EDGE...BUT THE RAP SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SHUNTING EAST
OVER THE RIDGES BY AFTERNOON. STILL WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND
SFC TEMPS REACHING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION FULLY
DISSIPATES...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WAS NECESSARY FOR A FEW HOURS.
TAX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...EXITING THE RIDGES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD
TIME TO SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DOES
DEVELOP WOULD HOLD ON LONGEST IN THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MODIFY AS IT SINKS INTO NORTHERN WV.
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION AT
AROUND 1000FT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN WITH THE WAA...MODELS STILL WANT TO HOLD
ONTO LOW CLOUD DECK. DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF DECREASING
CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE MOST PART....WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY. COULD SEE A RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AIR IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A BROAD...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS MODEL DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TAFS WILL STAY IFR OR LOWER THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES SOME
SITES TO LIFT OUT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LOTS OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO MELTING SNOWPACK...BUT VISIBILITIES IN OHIO
HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THINK
THAT FKL/DUJ/BVI MAY STAY LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
REST OF THE TERMINALS RETURNING TO IFR CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ZANESVILLE COULD
HAVE SOME THIS MORNING...AND THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA COMING THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS WILL PLAGUE THE REGION THIS WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES DURING
MID WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ058-059-068-
069.
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ029.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ002>004.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
836 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8AM UPDATE...
ISSUED THE EXPIRATION OF THE FZRA ADVISORY WITH PRECIPITATION
MOVING OUT OF THE ADVISED AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
INVADE THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF PGH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING OF ANY REMAINING LIQUID THAT REMAINS ON
ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS RE-FREEZE
THREAT.
ELSEWHERE...THE SEEMINGLY INNOCUOUS ECHOES THAT EXISTED NEAR CMH
1-2HRS AGO HAVE BLOSSOMED AND ARE SPREADING LIGHT RAIN AND A MIX
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS PROGGED WELL AND WAS
USED AS A BASELINE FOR SHIFTING THIS PRECIPITATION EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR
TEMPS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO YIELD SFC TEMPS FAVORABLE OF
MOSTLY RAIN FOR THIS REMAINING PRECIPITATION. LIGHT FZRA OR SLEET
COULD MIX ACROSS THE BACK EDGE...BUT THE RAP SHOWS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUICKLY SHUNTING EAST OVER THE RIDGES BY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING OF FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYING BACK EDGE...AND
ANY MIXED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT. DONT EXPECT THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...EXITING THE RIDGES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD
TIME TO SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DOES
DEVELOP WOULD HOLD ON LONGEST IN THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MODIFY AS IT SINKS INTO NORTHERN WV.
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION AT
AROUND 1000FT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN WITH THE WAA...MODELS STILL WANT TO HOLD
ONTO LOW CLOUD DECK. DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SCENARIO SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF DECREASING
CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE MOST PART....WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY. COULD SEE A RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AIR IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A BROAD...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS MODEL DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TAFS WILL STAY IFR OR LOWER THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE HOW LONG IT TAKES SOME
SITES TO LIFT OUT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LOTS OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO MELTING SNOWPACK...BUT VISIBILITIES IN OHIO
HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THINK
THAT FKL/DUJ/BVI MAY STAY LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
REST OF THE TERMINALS RETURNING TO IFR CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ZANESVILLE COULD
HAVE SOME THIS MORNING...AND THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA COMING THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS WILL PLAGUE THE REGION THIS WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES DURING
MID WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
615 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR VISIBILITY GUIDANCE...FELT IT
PRUDENT TO ADD FRANKLIN/SMITH/OSBORNE COUNTIES TO EXISTING DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...AS THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS JUST STARTING
TO CREEP INTO THESE AREAS AND THE WORST FOG SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND
ROUGHLY 50 MILES BEHIND THE EDGE. INTERESTINGLY...THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF FOG/STRATUS MAY FINALLY BE
STALLING...AND ONCOMING DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS VERY SHARP EDGE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR
RESULTANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WHAT 24 HOURS AGO APPEARED TO BE A FAIRLY "STRAIGHTFORWARD" SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CWA-WIDE HAS
UNFORTUNATELY MORPHED INTO A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD WITH
PLENTY OF FOG (SOME DENSE) TO START OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY AT-LEAST-LIGHT FOG HANGING ON EVEN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND OF
COURSE THE RESULTANT FAIRLY MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLY ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING 1ST
PERIOD HIGH TEMP FORECASTS THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN AWHILE...AS
THERE WILL EASILY BE A 20-30 DEGREE GRADIENT FROM THE
CLOUDY/CHILLIER EAST-NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY/WARMER
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ACROSS A CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CWA HERE THE EDGE OF THE STUBBORN STRATUS WILL LIKELY RESIDE MUCH
OF THE DAY...THERE IS EASILY 10-DEGREE TEMP BUST POTENTIAL. PUT
ANOTHER WAY...UNFORTUNATELY THOSE HOPING FOR A REALLY NICE AND AT
LEAST PARTIALLY SUNNY DAY ANYWHERE NEAR AND EAST THROUGH NORTH OF
THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE FACING A GLOOMY MONDAY LETDOWN.
NOT EVEN COUNTING THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST MODIFICATIONS
MADE TO MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TODAY...THERE IS YET ANOTHER QUANDARY
REGARDING WHETHER AT LEAST LIGHT FOG WILL REALLY EVER COMPLETELY
GO AWAY ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ISSUES AGAIN SHOWING THEIR HAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO
WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN A BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" MENTION FOR
TONIGHT.
WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON...FORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS STILL
PRETTY HIGH IN A PRECIP-FREE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE 00Z/06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH/BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COULD GET DEEP ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 92 AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...WITH LOW TEMPS FORECAST TO
DROP NO LOWER THAN 32-34 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THIS
AREA...WAS ABLE TO STEER CLEAR OF ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/ICING
CONCERNS.
GOING OVER THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
REGIME THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WITHIN ROUGHLY 50 MILES
BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOLID DECK OF LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS
STEADILY "BACK-DOORED" INTO THE CWA FROM EAST- TO-WEST SINCE LAST
EVENING BEHIND A MODEST COLD FRONT. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS
STRATUS IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE CWA FROM WEST- TO- EAST...WITH
WESTERN COUNTIES CLEAR AND LARGELY FOG-FREE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO
THE SITUATION FARTHER EAST. IN THE LARGER-SCALE MID- UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...YOU WOULDN/T EXPECT TO HAVE SO MANY COMPLICATIONS GOING ON
AT THE SURFACE...AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA REVEAL A FAIRLY BENIGN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF
BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-33 RANGE...WITH
THE LOW STRATUS OBVIOUSLY HALTING MUCH OF ANY FALL CENTRAL AND
EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD-FORECAST WISE...THE PARAMOUNT CONCERN RIGHT AWAY IS
THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST
COUNTIES EAST-NORTHEAST OF A KEARNEY-OSBORNE LINE. TO ITS
CREDIT...THE VARIOUS OVERNIGHT HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RUNS HAVE
BEEN DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB CAPTURING THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON ITS TRENDS ALONG WITH 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE COUNTIES NEEDING TACKED
ONTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXISTING ADVISORY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. AS FOR ADVISORY
TIMING...IN KEEPING IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT
ISSUED THEIR ADVISORIES FIRST...HAVE GONE WITH A 15Z/9AM
EXPIRATION TIME...BUT AM FEELING MORE AND MORE STRONGLY THAT DAY
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z/NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE TRI- CITIES. WITH SURFACE BREEZES ONLY VERY SLOWLY PICKING UP
TODAY TO GENERALLY 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THIS HAS THE
LOOKS OF A DAY THAT COULD KEEP AT LEAST LIGHT FOG FIRMLY IN PLACE
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY LONG IN AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MOVING BEYOND THE OBVIOUS FOG ISSUES...THE NEXT QUESTION FOR TODAY
IS WHETHER THE LOW STRATUS WILL TRY TO BREAK UP AT ALL AND/OR
ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR
THIS...AGAIN FOLLOWED VERY CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL THINKING...WHICH
PRESENTS A RATHER STARK CONTRAST BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND POTENTIALLY SOLID OVERCAST (AT LEAST
MOSTLY CLOUDY) IN EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT
TO PLENTY OF ERROR...MADE VERY NOTABLE 10-12 DEGREE CUTS TO HIGH
TEMPS IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2...WITH MORE MODEST CUTS UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WERE
ACTUALLY CHANGED VERY LITTLE. THE NET RESULT...AT LEAST FOR
NOW...IS A HIGH TEMP FORECAST AIMING FROM UPPER 30S/LOW 40S MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 AND MUCH WARMER 50S TO MID-60S SOUTHWEST.
DEPENDING ON HOW THICK STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS...UPPER 30S COULD
END UP BEING OPTIMISTIC IN SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS TOUCHED ON ABOVE HAVE ADDED A
BASELINE PATCHY FOG MENTION TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WHICH MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE BEEFED UP BY NEXT FEW SHIFTS
DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ONE FACTOR HOWEVER LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
GENERALLY 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A LOW-
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE BREEZES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING MUCH...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH MOST PLACES INTO
THE 33-37 RANGE. PRECIP-WISE...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF MID-
LEVEL SATURATION/FORCING SHOULD FOCUS ANY MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT
PRECIP SAFELY NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
NEB/SD BORDER...NAM PLAN-VIEW AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH TO AROUND 1/2-KILOMETER OR
HIGHER...ALONG WITH A TELL-TALE "SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF" SIGNAL...TO
JUSTIFY THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
NORTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY STEERS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE A
FAIRLY NICE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE
THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO START THE DAY...WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...ANY FOG THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BEING THE RULE BY AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TO RAPIDLY DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE NE/KS STATE LINES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXPECTED TO DROP 10-15C BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT
A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION TO THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME THURSDAY...THE COOLER
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
OR POSSIBLY EVEN A TAD BELOW CLIMO BOTH THURSDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STEER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE...WITH THE EC BEING ROUGHLY 10F
COOLER THAN THE GFS WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH THE AGREEMENT AT LEAST A MODERATELY COOLER AIRMASS
TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA...OPTED TO TRIM DOWN BLENDED GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. OTHER THAN THE FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE IN
EXTENDED MODELS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
AS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION... THIS HAS BECOME A
CONSIDERABLY MORE CHALLENGING AVIATION PERIOD THAN EXPECTED 18-24
HOURS AGO AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
IS PROMOTING A SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/DENSE FOG AND RESULTANT
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGRI. GIVEN THAT THESE VERY
POOR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SOLIDLY IN PLACE AT KGRI...EXPECT THEM
TO CONTINUE AND ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-CONFIDENCE RETURN TO VFR
VISIBILITY AT 20Z WITH AN MVFR CEILING BEFORE BRINGING BACK MVFR
VISIBILITY LATER IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR KEAR...UNCERTAINTY IS OFF
THE CHARTS HERE...AS THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DENSE FOG/STRATUS COULD STALL WITHIN 5-10 MILES EAST OF THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING...THUS SPARING KEAR FROM MAJOR ISSUES. AS A
RESULT...WILL HANG ONTO A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISIBILITY AND LIFR
CEILING POTENTIAL AT KEAR THIS MORNING...BUT IT COULD POSSIBLY
SKATE BY WITH VFR AS WELL AND AMENDMENTS ARE VERY POSSIBLE.
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE WIND IS CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER AT BOTH SITES...AS A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME THIS MORNING
GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO STEADIER SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH THEN PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING EVENING WITH
GUST POTENTIAL 15-20KT AS DIRECTION TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ006-007-
018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
534 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A CAM SHOT OF A CAR TRAVELING NEAR NEWPORT INDICATES NO FOG WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE SHOWING SOME EROSION ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. WEST WINDS AT AINSWORTH SUPPORT THIS. ROCK
COUNTY HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND FOG APPEAR TO BE STATIONARY AT 08Z. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND DRAW THE
FRONT WEST TOWARD HIGHWAY 83. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
USES THE RAP AND ARW MODELS WHICH HAVE DISPOSED OF ANY SNOW COVER
FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 40S EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT FROM 15Z ONWARD AND
INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVENT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DROPS INTO SCNTL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT REFLECT THIS WITH 30S MOST AREAS...20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY CONFLUENCE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE FREEZING LOWS FORECAST TONIGHT...THE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCE NORTH OF ONEILL SHOULD NOT POSE AN ICE THREAT AND ALL MODEL
SOLNS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE CASE KEEPING THAT RISK WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF ONEILL
ARE NEAR OR AT FREEZING SUGGESTING IT WILL BE CLOSE.
LASTLY...ALL MODELS MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE FRONT. A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WAS USED FOR SKY COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LINED UP CLOSE
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE ARW AND RAP MODELS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST IS
AT HAND.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE TIME
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STAYS PERSISTENT WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS LEAVES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT PASS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...AND AS TIMING HAS IMPROVED WHEN COMPARING MODELS
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THEIR INFLUENCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES FURTHER
ONSHORE AND CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO BREAK
UP INTO SEVERAL WEAK PV ANOMALIES...WITH THE FIRST TWO PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE THIRD STAYING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
CLOSING OFF OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH THE NORTHERN PV
ANOMALIES...THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE SECOND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY...THEN A SECOND STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T SEE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES. DID INCREASE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY SLIGHTLY AS THE TREND
LATELY HAS BEEN WARMER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO AT
LEAST PUT HIGHS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR WINDS TO INCREASE WILL COME BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT
FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS GOING ALOFT AND 850MB WINDS
OF 30-40KTS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN STAY MIXED A BREEZY NIGHT WILL
BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DID LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE THE COLDER AIR PUSHING IN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY...BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SO EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850MB OR
800MB AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
VALUES EXPECTED. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO
TRENDS AND AS THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUNSHINE TO HELP WARM THINGS
DURING THE DAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT
THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY. IN GENERAL...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE COLDEST AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BELOW -20C WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES...WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND AT THIS TIME IS LOOKING TO
STAY EAST INTO THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS SO WILL
KEEP THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM ORIGINATES OVER THE ARCTIC SO IT WILL HAVE COLDER AIR
YET WITH IT...BUT AS IT STAYS FAIRLY COMPACT...UNLESS THE MODELS
CHANGE TUNES AND ALLOW A TRACK FURTHER WEST...LOCAL AREAS WON/T
EXPERIENCE THE MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST WERE TRENDED COLDER FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BECAUSE OF THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THESE STRONG
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY CONTINUE TO LIE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO STAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO DISALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION FROM OCCURRING AND MAY JUST GET SOME VIRGA AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG HIGHWAY 281 IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
IFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 18Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY GET SWEPT WEST
TOWARD KANW-KVTN THIS AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SD.
EITHER WAY...IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG 281
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-007-
010-028-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
505 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A CAM SHOT OF A CAR TRAVELING NEAR NEWPORT INDICATES NO FOG WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE SHOWING SOME EROSION ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. WEST WINDS AT AINSWORTH SUPPORT THIS. ROCK
COUNTY HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND FOG APPEAR TO BE STATIONARY AT 08Z. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND DRAW THE
FRONT WEST TOWARD HIGHWAY 83. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
USES THE RAP AND ARW MODELS WHICH HAVE DISPOSED OF ANY SNOW COVER
FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 40S EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT FROM 15Z ONWARD AND
INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVENT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DROPS INTO SCNTL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT REFLECT THIS WITH 30S MOST AREAS...20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY CONFLUENCE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE FREEZING LOWS FORECAST TONIGHT...THE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCE NORTH OF ONEILL SHOULD NOT POSE AN ICE THREAT AND ALL MODEL
SOLNS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE CASE KEEPING THAT RISK WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF ONEILL
ARE NEAR OR AT FREEZING SUGGESTING IT WILL BE CLOSE.
LASTLY...ALL MODELS MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE FRONT. A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WAS USED FOR SKY COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LINED UP CLOSE
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE ARW AND RAP MODELS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST IS
AT HAND.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE TIME
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STAYS PERSISTENT WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS LEAVES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT PASS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...AND AS TIMING HAS IMPROVED WHEN COMPARING MODELS
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THEIR INFLUENCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES FURTHER
ONSHORE AND CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO BREAK
UP INTO SEVERAL WEAK PV ANOMALIES...WITH THE FIRST TWO PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE THIRD STAYING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
CLOSING OFF OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH THE NORTHERN PV
ANOMALIES...THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE SECOND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY...THEN A SECOND STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T SEE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES. DID INCREASE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY SLIGHTLY AS THE TREND
LATELY HAS BEEN WARMER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO AT
LEAST PUT HIGHS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR WINDS TO INCREASE WILL COME BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT
FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS GOING ALOFT AND 850MB WINDS
OF 30-40KTS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN STAY MIXED A BREEZY NIGHT WILL
BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DID LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE THE COLDER AIR PUSHING IN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY...BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SO EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850MB OR
800MB AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
VALUES EXPECTED. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO
TRENDS AND AS THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUNSHINE TO HELP WARM THINGS
DURING THE DAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT
THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY. IN GENERAL...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE COLDEST AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BELOW -20C WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES...WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND AT THIS TIME IS LOOKING TO
STAY EAST INTO THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS SO WILL
KEEP THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM ORIGINATES OVER THE ARCTIC SO IT WILL HAVE COLDER AIR
YET WITH IT...BUT AS IT STAYS FAIRLY COMPACT...UNLESS THE MODELS
CHANGE TUNES AND ALLOW A TRACK FURTHER WEST...LOCAL AREAS WON/T
EXPERIENCE THE MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST WERE TRENDED COLDER FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BECAUSE OF THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THESE STRONG
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY CONTINUE TO LIE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO STAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO DISALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION FROM OCCURRING AND MAY JUST GET SOME VIRGA AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGING VLIFR CONDITIONS /STRATUS AND FOG/
TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NEAR TERM MODELS STALL THE FRONT NEAR AN KANW TO KBBW
LINE...THUS DO NOT HAVE A MENTION IN EITHER KLBF OR KVTN TERMINAL
FORECASTS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-007-
010-028-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
456 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WHAT 24 HOURS AGO APPEARED TO BE A FAIRLY "STRAIGHTFORWARD" SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CWA-WIDE HAS
UNFORTUNATELY MORPHED INTO A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD WITH
PLENTY OF FOG (SOME DENSE) TO START OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY AT-LEAST-LIGHT FOG HANGING ON EVEN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND OF
COURSE THE RESULTANT FAIRLY MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLY ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING 1ST
PERIOD HIGH TEMP FORECASTS THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN AWHILE...AS
THERE WILL EASILY BE A 20-30 DEGREE GRADIENT FROM THE
CLOUDY/CHILLIER EAST-NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY/WARMER
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ACROSS A CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CWA HERE THE EDGE OF THE STUBBORN STRATUS WILL LIKELY RESIDE MUCH
OF THE DAY...THERE IS EASILY 10-DEGREE TEMP BUST POTENTIAL. PUT
ANOTHER WAY...UNFORTUNATELY THOSE HOPING FOR A REALLY NICE AND AT
LEAST PARTIALLY SUNNY DAY ANYWHERE NEAR AND EAST THROUGH NORTH OF
THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE FACING A GLOOMY MONDAY LETDOWN.
NOT EVEN COUNTING THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST MODIFICATIONS
MADE TO MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TODAY...THERE IS YET ANOTHER QUANDARY
REGARDING WHETHER AT LEAST LIGHT FOG WILL REALLY EVER COMPLETELY
GO AWAY ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ISSUES AGAIN SHOWING THEIR HAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO
WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN A BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" MENTION FOR
TONIGHT.
WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON...FORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS STILL
PRETTY HIGH IN A PRECIP-FREE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE 00Z/06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH/BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COULD GET DEEP ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 92 AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...WITH LOW TEMPS FORECAST TO
DROP NO LOWER THAN 32-34 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THIS
AREA...WAS ABLE TO STEER CLEAR OF ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/ICING
CONCERNS.
GOING OVER THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
REGIME THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WITHIN ROUGHLY 50 MILES
BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOLID DECK OF LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS
STEADILY "BACK-DOORED" INTO THE CWA FROM EAST- TO-WEST SINCE LAST
EVENING BEHIND A MODEST COLD FRONT. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS
STRATUS IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE CWA FROM WEST- TO- EAST...WITH
WESTERN COUNTIES CLEAR AND LARGELY FOG-FREE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO
THE SITUATION FARTHER EAST. IN THE LARGER-SCALE MID- UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...YOU WOULDN/T EXPECT TO HAVE SO MANY COMPLICATIONS GOING ON
AT THE SURFACE...AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA REVEAL A FAIRLY BENIGN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF
BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-33 RANGE...WITH
THE LOW STRATUS OBVIOUSLY HALTING MUCH OF ANY FALL CENTRAL AND
EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD-FORECAST WISE...THE PARAMOUNT CONCERN RIGHT AWAY IS
THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST
COUNTIES EAST-NORTHEAST OF A KEARNEY-OSBORNE LINE. TO ITS
CREDIT...THE VARIOUS OVERNIGHT HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RUNS HAVE
BEEN DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB CAPTURING THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON ITS TRENDS ALONG WITH 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE COUNTIES NEEDING TACKED
ONTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXISTING ADVISORY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. AS FOR ADVISORY
TIMING...IN KEEPING IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT
ISSUED THEIR ADVISORIES FIRST...HAVE GONE WITH A 15Z/9AM
EXPIRATION TIME...BUT AM FEELING MORE AND MORE STRONGLY THAT DAY
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z/NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE TRI- CITIES. WITH SURFACE BREEZES ONLY VERY SLOWLY PICKING UP
TODAY TO GENERALLY 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THIS HAS THE
LOOKS OF A DAY THAT COULD KEEP AT LEAST LIGHT FOG FIRMLY IN PLACE
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY LONG IN AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MOVING BEYOND THE OBVIOUS FOG ISSUES...THE NEXT QUESTION FOR TODAY
IS WHETHER THE LOW STRATUS WILL TRY TO BREAK UP AT ALL AND/OR
ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR
THIS...AGAIN FOLLOWED VERY CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL THINKING...WHICH
PRESENTS A RATHER STARK CONTRAST BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND POTENTIALLY SOLID OVERCAST (AT LEAST
MOSTLY CLOUDY) IN EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT
TO PLENTY OF ERROR...MADE VERY NOTABLE 10-12 DEGREE CUTS TO HIGH
TEMPS IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2...WITH MORE MODEST CUTS UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WERE
ACTUALLY CHANGED VERY LITTLE. THE NET RESULT...AT LEAST FOR
NOW...IS A HIGH TEMP FORECAST AIMING FROM UPPER 30S/LOW 40S MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 AND MUCH WARMER 50S TO MID-60S SOUTHWEST.
DEPENDING ON HOW THICK STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS...UPPER 30S COULD
END UP BEING OPTIMISTIC IN SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS TOUCHED ON ABOVE HAVE ADDED A
BASELINE PATCHY FOG MENTION TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WHICH MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE BEEFED UP BY NEXT FEW SHIFTS
DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ONE FACTOR HOWEVER LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
GENERALLY 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A LOW-
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE BREEZES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING MUCH...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH MOST PLACES INTO
THE 33-37 RANGE. PRECIP-WISE...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF MID-
LEVEL SATURATION/FORCING SHOULD FOCUS ANY MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT
PRECIP SAFELY NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
NEB/SD BORDER...NAM PLAN-VIEW AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH TO AROUND 1/2-KILOMETER OR
HIGHER...ALONG WITH A TELL-TALE "SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF" SIGNAL...TO
JUSTIFY THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
NORTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY STEERS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE A
FAIRLY NICE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE
THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO START THE DAY...WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...ANY FOG THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BEING THE RULE BY AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TO RAPIDLY DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE NE/KS STATE LINES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXPECTED TO DROP 10-15C BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT
A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION TO THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME THURSDAY...THE COOLER
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
OR POSSIBLY EVEN A TAD BELOW CLIMO BOTH THURSDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STEER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE...WITH THE EC BEING ROUGHLY 10F
COOLER THAN THE GFS WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH THE AGREEMENT AT LEAST A MODERATELY COOLER AIRMASS
TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA...OPTED TO TRIM DOWN BLENDED GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. OTHER THAN THE FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE IN
EXTENDED MODELS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
SORRY FOR THE LATE 06Z DISCUSSION...BUT AS COVERED IN PREVIOUS 00Z
DISCUSSION THIS HAS BECOME A CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
AVIATION PERIOD THAN EXPECTED EVEN 12 HOURS AGO AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IS PROMOTING A SOLID DECK
OF INCOMING IFR STRATUS AND LIKELY A MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY RANGING ANYWHERE FROM LIFR TO MVFR...WITH A PERIOD OF
DENSE FOG VLIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHILE THESE VERY POOR
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SETTLING INTO KGRI AS OF THIS WRITING...IT
MAY TAKE ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WESTWARD INTO KEAR. ALTHOUGH FOG ISSUES WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW STRATUS COULD REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE AT
KGRI WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT LEAST...WHILE KEAR MAY RESIDE
QUITE CLOSE TO THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE LOW STRATUS AND LEGIT VFR
CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE
HUNG ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TO KGRI IN
THE MID-AFTERNOON AND A BIT EARLIER AT KEAR...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT
TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. THE BOTTOM LINE: IT MAY BE DIFFICULT ENOUGH
TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE FIRST 6 HOURS LET ALONE BEYOND THAT DURING
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE
WIND IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...AS A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME THIS
MORNING GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO STEADIER SOUTHEAST BREEZES DURING
THE DAY...WHICH THEN PICK UP EVEN MORE MONDAY EVENING WITH GUST
POTENTIAL 15-20KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-061>064-074>077-085>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
NOT MUCH FOR CONCERNS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE
AS WARM CONSIDERING WEAK FLOW...COLDER AIRMASS...AND CLOUD COVER.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS
WEAK FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLURRIES AND/OR FZDZ AHEAD
OF THE STRONGER FORCING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RAP AND
OTHER VARIOUS MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY WEAK QPF IN THIS REGIME.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FZDZ POTENTIAL.
THERE IS DRY AIR ALOFT...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUPERCOOLED
WATER DROPLETS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WHERE THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER
(<-6C). DID INCLUDE PATCHY FZDZ HERE...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
INCREASING THE COVERAGE IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS.
WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TUESDAY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WIND
SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LATER UPDATES. THE THINKING REMAINS
RELATIVELY THE SAME AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU NRN MN ATTM. A NARROW AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH PARTS OF NE ND/NW MN. CLOUDS
WILL HOLD TODAY. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER NW MN LEFTOVER FROM
THE EXITING SHORT WAVE AND OVER NE ND/DVL BASIN UNDER STRATOCU
DECK. ROLLA-BRANDON MB AND A FEW OTHER SPOTS HAVE HAD -SN PAST FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE DRY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF OREGON COAST WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO NW NEVADA AND ERN OREGON. A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN DIFFERENT
IN QPF LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...BUT NOT BY HUGE AMOUNTS. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR A BIT NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND QPF. INITIAL
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THRU NRN MT INTO NW ND BY 12Z TUES. A BAND OF
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM THE LOW SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ND TONIGHT AND REACHES DVL
BASIN PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z AND THE RRV NR 12Z TUE. BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF POPS FOR A BIT DELAYED EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AS MAIN SFC
LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND TUESDAY MORNING A SECOND LOW WILL
BE IN CNTRL-ERN SD. A SECOND PIECE OF WARM ADV AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING IN WCNTRL MN AS NRN LOW
WEAKENS A BIT. THUS MODELS DO HAVE TWO AREAS OF MAIN PRECIPITATION
ONE IN NE ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER SOMEWHERE IN WCNTRL OR
CNTRL MN TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY WITH
SOME WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW LASTING INTO NE ND/NW MN TUESDAY NIGHT.
PTYPE ISSUES APPEAR REGULATED TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA.
USING GFS THERMAL PROFILES...A BRIEF PD OF FZRA OR SLEET PSBL IN
FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF FCST AREA NR 12Z BUT OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILES AND BUFKIT AND SREF PLUMES SHOW A SNOW EVENT FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH? SW FCST AREA GETS DRY SLOTTED LIKELY WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PD OF PRECIP AND IF SNOW ONLY AMOUNTS TO 1-2 INCHES
WEST AND SOUTH OF FARGO. A BIT HEAVIER SNOW AREA DEVELOPS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL MN AND THEN INTO NW MN/NE ND WHERE SNOWFALL OF 3-4
INCHES SEEMS MORE LIKELY. SO BASED ON THIS SOME PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA WILL HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. WITHOUT MUCH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION PARTS OF SE ND MAY NOT HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.
WITH STILL QUESTIONS ON PRECIP AND STILL PSBL FURTHER SHIFT NORTH
OF PRECIP AND WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP NOT FALLING TIL NR 12Z AND
AFTERWARDS ON TUESDAY...HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES. COORD
WITH ABR/MPX/DLH ON THIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL END IN NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DOMINATED WITH COLD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY
BRINGING DOWN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. SINGLE DIGITS HIGHS EXPECTED WED
AND THURSDAY BEFORE SOME TEMP MODERATION WITH WEAK WAA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REESTABLISHING THE SINGLE DIGITS
HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND. ONLY POP CHANCE REMAINS MINOR...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK WAA FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A BIT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE NRN RRV HAS HELPED SCOUR OUT
THE MVFR CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART LEAVING LOW END VFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE TO THE EAST AND WEST MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS AND
LIGHT FOG DVL BASIN. LOOK FOR A GENERAL LIGHT NORTH WIND TO TURN
MORE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING. TREND WILL BE FOR LOWEST CIGS TO BE WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH IN GENERAL MVFR CIGS RRV AND INTO MN. THREAT FOR
SNOW MOVES INTO DVL REGION BY 07Z TUES AND INTO THE GFK/FAR AREA
BY 10-11Z TUES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
844 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18 UTC...AS
WEBCAM...SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1430
UTC SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO PUSH FOG COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST WITH REPORTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY COMING IN THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING IN THE WEST WITH SOME
OBBS COMING IN AT ONE-QUARTER MILE. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A PLETHORA OF HEADLINES DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR THE
NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 15Z MONDAY...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VARIETY OF VISIBILITIES OF AT/NEAR OR BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE. LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS CLOUDS LIFTING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION THIS AFTERNOON...FROM TROTTERS TO NEAR DICKINSON
AND HETTINGER. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE...EXPECT STRATUS TO
CONTINUE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE AND
FLATTEN IT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
FLATTER FLOW AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MODEL SUITE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...SHIFTING EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONDAY NIGHT. DECENT OMEGA/LIFT IN THE 850-300MB LAYER FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO PUNCH INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z AND PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARD 15Z-18Z TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE LIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CULMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OVERALL THEME
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN VERY MUCH CONSISTENT.
THUS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE HEADLINES BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS HEADLINED
IN/AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY AND/OR CATEGORICAL.
TIMING AND AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST APPEAR BRIEF AND LIGHT. WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS FOR ANY CHANGES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TOWARDS THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEING
MINIMAL.
COLD...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS FRIGID
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING CALMING WINDS AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS MAY PUSH 20 BELOW FOR LOW TEMPS.
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN COME DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 842 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LIFR CIGS AND LIFR/IFR VSBYS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...APPROACHING KDIK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE LIFTED CIGS AT KDIK TO MVFR...BUT THIS WILL
NEED SOME ADJUSTING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...STRATUS
DOMINATES THE REMAINING TERMINALS WITH IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD KISN/KDIK/KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER KMOT AND LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
AT KJMS MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR/IFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ009-
010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ019>022-034>036-046-047-050.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ001-009-010-017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ002-003-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO PUSH FOG COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST WITH REPORTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY COMING IN THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING IN THE WEST WITH SOME
OBBS COMING IN AT ONE-QUARTER MILE. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A PLETHORA OF HEADLINES DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR THE
NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 15Z MONDAY...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VARIETY OF VISIBILITIES OF AT/NEAR OR BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE. LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS CLOUDS LIFTING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION THIS AFTERNOON...FROM TROTTERS TO NEAR DICKINSON
AND HETTINGER. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE...EXPECT STRATUS TO
CONTINUE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE AND
FLATTEN IT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
FLATTER FLOW AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MODEL SUITE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...SHIFTING EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONDAY NIGHT. DECENT OMEGA/LIFT IN THE 850-300MB LAYER FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO PUNCH INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z AND PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARD 15Z-18Z TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE LIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CULMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OVERALL THEME
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN VERY MUCH CONSISTENT.
THUS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE HEADLINES BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS HEADLINED
IN/AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY AND/OR CATEGORICAL.
TIMING AND AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST APPEAR BRIEF AND LIGHT. WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS FOR ANY CHANGES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TOWARDS THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEING
MINIMAL.
COLD...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS FRIGID
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING CALMING WINDS AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS MAY PUSH 20 BELOW FOR LOW TEMPS.
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN COME DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LIFR CIGS AND LIFR/IFR VSBYS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...APPROACHING KDIK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE LIFTED CIGS AT KDIK TO MVFR...BUT THIS WILL
NEED SOME ADJUSTING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...STRATUS
DOMINATES THE REMAINING TERMINALS WITH IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD KISN/KDIK/KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER KMOT AND LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
AT KJMS MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO LIFR/IFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ019>022-034>036-046-047-050.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ001-009-010-017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ002-003-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
432 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A PLETHORA OF HEADLINES DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR THE
NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 15Z MONDAY...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VARIETY OF VISIBILITIES OF AT/NEAR OR BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE. LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS CLOUDS LIFTING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION THIS AFTERNOON...FROM TROTTERS TO NEAR DICKINSON
AND HETTINGER. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE...EXPECT STRATUS TO
CONTINUE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE AND
FLATTEN IT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
FLATTER FLOW AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MODEL SUITE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...SHIFTING EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONDAY NIGHT. DECENT OMEGA/LIFT IN THE 850-300MB LAYER FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO PUNCH INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z AND PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARD 15Z-18Z TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE LIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CULMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OVERALL THEME
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN VERY MUCH CONSISTENT.
THUS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE HEADLINES BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS HEADLINED
IN/AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY AND/OR CATEGORICAL.
TIMING AND AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST APPEAR BRIEF AND LIGHT. WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS FOR ANY CHANGES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TOWARDS THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEING
MINIMAL.
COLD...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS FRIGID
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING CALMING WINDS AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS MAY PUSH 20 BELOW FOR LOW TEMPS.
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN COME DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR IN
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH DICKINSON ON THE
FRINGES OF SOME CLEARING. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN THE STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD KISN/KDIK/KBIS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER KMOT AND KJMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ019>022-034>036-046-047-050.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ001-009-010-017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ002-003-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
533 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN LOW
STRATUS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO LIKELY AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. HAVE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 15Z. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS AREA...AND SUGGESTS VISIBILITIES SHOULD START IMPROVING BY MID
MORNING...WITH GREGORY COUNTY THE LAST TO IMPROVE. FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
DEEP...BUT A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM IS PROBABLY
HOLDING DRIZZLE AT BAY AT THIS POINT. WILL LEAVE A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING THOUGH...GIVEN THE DEEP SATURATION AND MODELS
HINTING IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL LIFT. AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS...CUT BACK HIGHS
TODAY AS NOT THINKING WE WARM MUCH. SO LOOKING AT MAINLY UPPER 20S
EAST TO 30S WEST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON A SOLUTION SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH THAN THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE
BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHEST QPF STAYING NORTH. STILL SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF LIFT MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL
GREATLY CUT INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THROUGH 12Z GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF...GREATEST IN THE NORTH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. THE NORTHERN SOLUTION ALSO MEANS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXING IN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL LIFT BECOMES QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE LIFT COLLOCATED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATION FROM 0 TO 1 KM. THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO EVEN IF A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE
PRECIPITATION STAYS TO OUR NORTH...STILL MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH UNTREATED SURFACES BECOMING
ICY. SOUTHERN EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN...AND SINCE MOST OF THE ISSUES
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE NEW GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
ALL 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES THE ECMWF AND GEM. AT THIS TIME...OUR
FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER DIV Q FORCING...AND
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALSO. ALL OF
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A LARGE QPF EVENT ON TUESDAY. STILL...HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING WITH A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING...WITH THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRY MID LEVELS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AT LEAST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING. BUT FOR NOW...WENT THE MEASURABLE POPS ROUTE.
IN ADDITION WITH A WARM LAYER WELL ABOVE FREEZING FROM 850-
750MB...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT COMING IN TUESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT WARMER...WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...AND 50S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES. THIS SHOULD MELT ANY
ICE WHICH FALLS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAMATICALLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES
AND PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE FROM 925MB-
850MB...DECIDED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
TOO THIN TO SUPPORT FLURRIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
TO MID 20S SOUTH...AND WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW ZERO IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
ON THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. BUT SO FAR
THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION YET IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN.
STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR COMING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING FOR FRIDAY A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BECAUSE IF THE FRONT
WOULD HAPPEN TO SPEED UP JUST 3 TO 6 HOURS...OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY COULD BE A FULL TEN DEGREES COLDER. BUT RIGHT NOW MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT DAY ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY... HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CHILLY BUT PROBABLY NOT BRUTALLY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS
LIKELY WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO TONIGHT...FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
LIFR AND LOW END MVFR. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. BY LATE TONIGHT LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BLUSTERY
OVERNIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ050-057-
063.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
544 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS
1. CAN CLOUDS CLEAR TODAY...AND WHERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST...RIDGING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA...AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN
MN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THOSE CLOUDS
WERE OVER TOP OF AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK...STRETCHING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF MN...IA AND A LOT OF WI. HOWEVER...CLEARING WAS
EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WI MARCHING SOUTHWESTWARD...RESULTING FROM
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO. THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...DESPITE A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE.
925MB TEMPS RANGED FROM -7 TO -11C PER RAP ANALYSIS.
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY QUIET. UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND GET PUSHED EASTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST BREAKING APART AND MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
12Z TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THE MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE
CURRENT STRATUS DECK AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. LOOKING AT THE 925-
850MB WIND FLOW...TO SEE IF THAT CLEARING IN NORTHEAST WI CAN MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THAT FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BACK
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL HAVE DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
MIX SOME...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WOULD STAND TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SCATTER/CLEAR OUT. FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEST...IT COULD EASILY STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD TRENDS AND 925MB TEMPS ONLY
FORECAST TO WARM MAYBE 1C TODAY...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB. MAYBE WE GET A 5 DEGREE RISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST
TOWARDS CENTRAL WI WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WHERE IT
CLEARS OUT. OTHERWISE MORE TEENS TO LOW 20S SEEMS REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
2. WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
4. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH YET A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. DPVA
FROM BOTH TROUGHS COMBINED WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FIRST ONE...WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE WITH FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF I-90
AND GIVEN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE 2 SHORTWAVES...MOST PROBABLE
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. TRIED TO
CONVEY THIS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. NORTH OF I-90 CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR SNOW WITH
NO ISSUES OF A WARM LAYER OR LOSING ICE IN THE CLOUD. SOUTH OF I-90
BOTH OF THOSE ISSUES EXIST...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-90. THUS...THE AMOUNT OF ANY SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. REGARDING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UP HIGH AND
THIN...ANTICIPATING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AROUND 10 TO 1. WITH GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.2-0.3 INCH RANGE
WHERE SNOW IS THE MAIN P-TYPE...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR IN TAYLOR COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
COMING OFF THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA...PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THE
TROUGH BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED AWAY BY THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE TROUGH BRINGS IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR. NORTHWEST 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING THE
ASSOCIATED TEMPS TO PLUMMET FROM -8 TO -12C AT 18Z WED TO -20 TO
-25C AT 12Z THU. THOSE 12Z THU READINGS ARE COLDER THAN BEFORE
AND THUS HAVE HAD TO LOWER LOWS A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOWS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS ARE MAKING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOK MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING
TO 850- 900MB...30 KT GUSTS SEEM EASILY POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WILL
CAUSE ANY SNOW FROM TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
BLOW AROUND. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE
FORECAST.
THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY SO LOWERED
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...BRIEF UPPER RIDGING THEN COMES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO BRING IN
WARMER AIR. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -7 TO -12C BY 00Z SAT ACCORDING TO
THE 09.00Z EC/GFS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCOMPANY THIS WARMER AIR
FOR FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY...
CAUSED BY A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN JUST NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA...A GREAT SOURCE REGION FOR VERY
COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FALL TO -2 TO
-2.5 ON SATURDAY PER THE 09.00Z EC/GFS...AND AS SUCH THE MEX
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MAX T GUIDANCE ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO A STRONG SURGE OF
WIND SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH MORE WIND CHILL ISSUES. FOR NOW
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS WEAKER ON
WINDS AND WARMER ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE POTENT TROUGH DIGS AND HEADS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL CAUSE
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR. JUST IN THE PAST
2 TO 3 HOURS...CEILINGS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WISCONSIN HAVE
BECOME VFR. THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09.13Z AND 09.17Z.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING VARYING TIMES ON WHEN SKIES WILL
CLEAR. THE RAP KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING AT BOTH TAF
SITES. THIS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS THIS OCCUR
EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MIGHT BE TOO EARLY AT THE TAF SITES. THE NAM
WAS IN BETWEEN SHOWING CLEARING AROUND 10.00Z. THIS ALSO SEEMS A
BIT TOO LATE...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM
WHICH WOULD HAVE CLEARING OCCURRING AT KLSE AT 09.22Z AMD KRST
09.23Z. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE STEADIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LIFT IS OVERALL WEAK HOWEVER SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THE BEST LIFT WILL FOCUS
SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE COLUMN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THIS EVENING SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW. ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...LATEST THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE HRRR ARE INDICATING
THE BEST LIFT MAY OCCUR BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE. ANY ICE/SLEET
WILL BE LIGHT WITH AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. NEW
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UP TO AN INCH.
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES. THE ADVISORY NOW EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT. IF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION FALLS...THE ADVISORY COULD BE CANCELED SOONER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION SO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL END.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE ACCEPTED FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND LOW TEENS IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. BITTER
COLD EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TWO STORM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT
THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY BUILDS. HOWEVER...NEXT VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE THAT ORIGINATES FROM THE POLE DIVES DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH CLIPPER LOW ACCOMPANYING IT AT THE SFC. THE LOW
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...THE LOW DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...DUE TO SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ALOFT PER LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z ECMWF.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE POPS/COVERAGE TO LIKELY IN
SNOW THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE
ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS.
THEN...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD BE DEEPER...THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SFC LOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONLY TO DEEPEN SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
OVERALL...COLD AIR WILL PREVAIL. WED AND THU WILL BE COLD...BUT WILL
FEEL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. FRIGID TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AT LEAST
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS REMAINS A DISORGANIZED EVENT WHICH WILL FEATURE MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...MIXED WITH -FZRA AT TIMES PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE NYC
TERMINALS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY -FZRA/FZDZ DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WITH NE WINDS AT 10-15 G20KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY FZRA/FZDZ POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY FZRA/FZDZ POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY FZRA/FZDZ POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY FZRA/FZDZ POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY FZRA/FZDZ POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.TUE AFT...VFR. NORTH GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.
.THU...MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
TERMINALS. .
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G40KT...DIMINISHING FRI NIGHT.
.SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE GALE WARNING AND SCA THROUGH 19Z TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL BE 6 TO 9 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW GALES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO A SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE OCEAN. SEAS
WILL ALSO DECREASE TO BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.ON NON-OCEAN WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER 19Z TUESDAY.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. THEN...LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. THEN...YET ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES SATURDAY...POSSIBLY DEEPENING LATE.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NEW YORK CITY ALL HAZARDS RADIO...FREQUENCY 162.550 MHZ...IS OFF
THE AIR DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE.
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE ISSUE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1248 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND THEN BEGIN CLEARING UP
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IN STORE WITH ONLY FORECAST ISSUES BEING ENDING
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHEN/IF SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME WEAK LIFT WAS REMAINING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE AREA. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND A FEW
SPOTS...INCLUDING HERE AT THE OFFICE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COURTESY OF THE LOSS OF ANY ICE CRYSTAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FZDZ FOR SE HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH 11Z BEFORE ENDING AS WAVE EXIT THE AREA. DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY ICING ISSUES BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
GREATER CONCERN IN TERMS OF ROADS WILL LIKELY BE FROM RECENT
MELTED SNOW REFREEZING ON SURFACES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COLDER
AIR...WILL CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPTICK IN TEMPS TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS MAYBE SEEING A 3 TO 5 DEGREE CLIMB AT BEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS WAS LOCATED FROM ALPENA MI TO NEAR
GREEN BAY AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. 6Z RUN OF NAM TRIES TO BRING
CLEARING INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE RUC AND
LOCAL WRF A TOUCH SLOWER...MORE CLOSER TO 00Z. HAVE KEPT WITH SLOWER
TREND FOR NOW WITH SOME THIN SPOTS LIKELY TO APPEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AND SINGLE DIGITS NORTH. MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN
THE NORTH IF SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FAR NORTH/NE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
ARCTIC STREAM SW OVR WRN NUNAVUT THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SEWD EARLY
IN THE PD AND MARKEDLY DEEPEN ERN NOAM TROUGHING AS SECONDARY ARCTIC
WAVE FOLLOWS LT PD. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR W/TEMP DEPARTURES OF 20+ DEGREES BLO NORMAL LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE PD.
LEAD ARCTIC DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACRS THE LAKES ON WED W/GENERALLY
LTL FANFARE LOCALLY AS SW AND ASSOCD MSTR PLUME PASS WELL NORTH AND
DISCOUNTED ALLBLEND POPS W/GROSS MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDING DRY HERE.
HWVR PASSAGE OF ARCTIC SFC BNDRY WED NIGHT ALG W/VIGOROUS HGT FALLS
ALOFT TIED TO SHARPENING H7-5 TROUGH ALOFT AND MORE FVRBL CYCLONIC
LL FLW TRAJECTORIES WITHIN BLOSSOMING LK AGGREGATE TROUGHING WARRANT
AN APPRECIABLE BOOST TO LK EFFECT SHSN CONTG INTO THU. AHD OF THIS
FTR...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL MAKE WED THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD.
SECONDARY FOLLOWING ARCTIC WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACRS THE LAKES FRI
NIGHT W/LK EFFECT LIKELY DVLPG IN ITS WAKE LT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OTRWS TEMPS TURNING SHARPLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD STRONG ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID DAY. A
COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL CAUSE THE STRATUS DECK TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO THE 5 KT OR LESS RANGE BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...BENTLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1109 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND THEN BEGIN CLEARING UP
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IN STORE WITH ONLY FORECAST ISSUES BEING ENDING
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WHEN/IF SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOME WEAK LIFT WAS REMAINING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE AREA. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND A FEW
SPOTS...INCLUDING HERE AT THE OFFICE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COURTESY OF THE LOSS OF ANY ICE CRYSTAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FZDZ FOR SE HALF OF
THE AREA THROUGH 11Z BEFORE ENDING AS WAVE EXIT THE AREA. DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY ICING ISSUES BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
GREATER CONCERN IN TERMS OF ROADS WILL LIKELY BE FROM RECENT
MELTED SNOW REFREEZING ON SURFACES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COLDER
AIR...WILL CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPTICK IN TEMPS TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS MAYBE SEEING A 3 TO 5 DEGREE CLIMB AT BEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS WAS LOCATED FROM ALPENA MI TO NEAR
GREEN BAY AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. 6Z RUN OF NAM TRIES TO BRING
CLEARING INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE RUC AND
LOCAL WRF A TOUCH SLOWER...MORE CLOSER TO 00Z. HAVE KEPT WITH SLOWER
TREND FOR NOW WITH SOME THIN SPOTS LIKELY TO APPEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AND SINGLE DIGITS NORTH. MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN
THE NORTH IF SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR. DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
FAR NORTH/NE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
ARCTIC STREAM SW OVR WRN NUNAVUT THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SEWD EARLY
IN THE PD AND MARKEDLY DEEPEN ERN NOAM TROUGHING AS SECONDARY ARCTIC
WAVE FOLLOWS LT PD. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR W/TEMP DEPARTURES OF 20+ DEGREES BLO NORMAL LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE PD.
LEAD ARCTIC DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACRS THE LAKES ON WED W/GENERALLY
LTL FANFARE LOCALLY AS SW AND ASSOCD MSTR PLUME PASS WELL NORTH AND
DISCOUNTED ALLBLEND POPS W/GROSS MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDING DRY HERE.
HWVR PASSAGE OF ARCTIC SFC BNDRY WED NIGHT ALG W/VIGOROUS HGT FALLS
ALOFT TIED TO SHARPENING H7-5 TROUGH ALOFT AND MORE FVRBL CYCLONIC
LL FLW TRAJECTORIES WITHIN BLOSSOMING LK AGGREGATE TROUGHING WARRANT
AN APPRECIABLE BOOST TO LK EFFECT SHSN CONTG INTO THU. AHD OF THIS
FTR...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL MAKE WED THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD.
SECONDARY FOLLOWING ARCTIC WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACRS THE LAKES FRI
NIGHT W/LK EFFECT LIKELY DVLPG IN ITS WAKE LT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
OTRWS TEMPS TURNING SHARPLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
IFR CONDITIONS HOLDING STRONG AT KFWA WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE
PERSISTING FOR PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDS SUGGEST THE FZDZ SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE WENT WITH PREDOMINATE
MENTION THROUGH 14Z AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AS FOR KSBN...MVFR CIGS IN PLACE WITH BRIEF EXCURTIONS TO VFR IN
NARROW AREA OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS. 2 OF THE HI RES MODELS
SUGGESTED THIS MAY OCCUR AND SHOW THE CURRENT CONDITIONS HOLDING
ON. BIT SKEPTICAL THAT IT CAN HOLD ON TO THE HIGHER CIGS GIVEN
UPSTREAM OBS. HOWEVER...HAS BEEN THE CASE NOW FOR OVER 3 HOURS SO
MAY BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM LK MICHIGAN AND THE NE FLOW. WILL GO WITH
CONTINUED MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS EVENING DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH SITES WITH QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
328 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER AND APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST.
LOW STRATUS ERODING OVER THE NORTH MOMENTARILY BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
FILL BACK IN AFTER SUNSET. THE HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT SETUP QUITE
WELL WITH SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE NORTH FOLLOWED
BY CLOUDS FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER MT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
NORTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETWEEN 09-12Z. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHWEST SHOW LOWER LAYERS THICKENING TOWARD
MORNING WITH SOME LIFT INCREASING TOWARD 12Z. WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING TO A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX
BY 12Z. INITIALLY THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE INTRODUCTION
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE CHALLENGING AS WELL. GUIDANCE DROPS VALUES INTO THE
TEENS NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 20S MOST AREAS. LAST NIGHT MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLOUD COVER KEPT MINS IN THE LOWER 30S. THOUGH
NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE THAT WARM TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT
GRADIENT FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER TEENS EAST TO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MOST OF MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING
NORTHERN IOWA...THEN PUSH A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA STILL LOOKS SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOUD DEPTHS WAVERING BETWEEN ABOUT 3000 AND
8000 FEET AND MAINLY LOCATED BENEATH BOTH THE ICE INTRODUCTION
LAYER AND THE LIMITED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH. THIS SUPPORTS MOSTLY A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING...LIKELY LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN OUR AREA...WITH ONLY 40 TO 50 POPS IN
THE NORTH AND VERY LIGHT EXPECTED AMOUNTS...HAVE NOT ISSUED AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND ONE MAY YET BECOME WARRANTED IF THERE IS
A MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR MEANINGFUL ICE ACCUMULATION/IMPACTS.
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL END ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ONE LAST
500 MB IMPULSE ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND IS REFLECTED BY A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER APPROACHING 40 KNOTS AT TIMES AND THERE
IS AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT MIXING EXPECTED...THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY AT SOME POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR FALL DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THEN PLUMMET FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
OF AROUND 20 TO 25 BELOW FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CROSSES IOWA ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD...THEN WE WILL
CONTINUE THIS SERIES OF ALTERNATING HIGHS AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODEST WARM UP ON
FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY...MORE STRONG WINDS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MORE COLD ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...ETC. IN A REPEAT OF THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ALREADY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THIS PATTERN COULD
SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH DIGS A BIT FURTHER DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. IF THIS VERIFIES THEN IT WOULD SPREAD THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MORE ACROSS IOWA
RATHER THAN FURTHER NORTH AS WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR...HOWEVER AT
THIS RANGE IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO GET MUCH DETAIL OUT OF WHAT THIS
WOULD MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE STRATUS DECK AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z. CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA WITH
SOME EXPANSION SOUTH TOWARD KFOD AND KMCW EXPECTED WITH A FEW
HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED PRIOR TO 00Z. ELSEWHERE CIGS
BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/VFR OR REMAINING MVFR THROUGH 00Z. AFT 00Z
EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TO LOWER WITH RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
REGIONWIDE. OVER THE NORTH AT KFOD AND KMCW...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFT 11Z WITH -FZRADZPL POSSIBLE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE BUT HAVE CONFINED TO NORTHERN SITES AS
MOST PROBABLE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
344 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Surface high pressure ridge extends southeast across eastern Kansas
from Minnesota. Cool east to northeast flow along with stratus which
has held on most of the day, has kept temperatures from rising much
from morning lows especially across north central Kansas.
Latest visible satellite loop shows the stratus breaking up from
central Missouri into east central Kansas. HRRR, NAM and RAP show
some semblance of this trend for partial clearing from Emporia to
Topeka along with some further clearing this evening into northeast
Kansas. Areas of north central Kansas look to stay in the stratus
tonight. The low clouds may reform later tonight across the east.
Areas of fog are likely for much of the area overnight. Lows tonight
will vary due to breaks in the clouds. Expecting lows in the upper
20s to low to mid 30s.
Thermal axis noses into northeast Kansas on Tuesday ahead of the
next shortwave and surface frontal boundary. Forecast soundings show
mixing to 925mb to 900mb in the afternoon. Stratus looks to break up
in the late morning and early afternoon hours. Highs will range from
the 50s to around 60.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Next cold front still on track to move through the county warning
area (cwa) Tuesday night as a weak shortwave trough extending from
the Great Lakes into the southwest CONUS moves through and shears
with time. The initial push of cooler air will lower highs into the
upper 30s and lower 40s for Wednesdays and should move through the
area dry as well.
As the stronger secondary d cold front moves through late
Wednesday/Wednesday night...a much colder push of air will
overspread the area. The GFS is deeper with the eastern trough and
colder than the EC. Following lows in the teens and lower 20s
Thursday morning...highs will struggle to reach the 20s and lower
30s most areas. Again...with only weak forcing and limited
moisture...will maintain a dry fcst.
The upper ridging along the west coast will amplify and edge
eastward by Friday with warmer air temporarily advecting into the
cwa with highs into the 40s east and the low to mid 50s west. Models
are in agreement with the next strong northwest flow wave into the
eastern CONUS trough which will drive another push colder air back
into the cwa with highs mainly in the 30s Saturday...then the low to
mid 40s Sunday.
Even warmer air will then overspread the area on Monday with highs
mainly in the low to middle 50s as another longer wave trough
approaches the central plains. There will be a chance for rain
across the southeast cwa during the day...then a chance for rain or
snow that night as the cold front moves through.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Expect conditions at the terminals to improve a bit this afternoon
to the MVFR range. The stratus should persist though and the
possibility of dipping back into the IFR category tonight will
likely play out. Late in the TAF period we should see more a more
stable trend in the improvement of conditions to the MVFR then
eventually VFR as the stratus recedes north of the terminals and a
weak ridge pushes through the region.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Extended dense fog advisory until 11 am for Republic, Cloud and
Ottawa Counties as visibilities continue to be around 1/4 mile.
Expect gradual improvement over the next couple of hours.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Backdoor cold front has pushed southwest through the forecast
area overnight as another weak wave tracked into the mid MS
valley. Behind the front cold air advection has caused fog and
stratus as a weak surface ridge slides through NE and into KS
later today. The lowest visibilities are currently located on the
western edge of the fog/stratus over south central NE. Winds
should decrease as the ridge approaches the forecast area limiting
the amount of mixing as most sites are only a few degrees away
from saturation. Several runs of the SREF and HRRR show that dense
fog may try to build into north central KS this morning therefore
have kept the mention of fog in the forecast. Not confident if the
visibilities will warrant an advisory at this point and or when
they will improve. It appears that eastern KS will only experience
minor visibility restrictions through mid morning hours. The more
solid fog in north central KS may try to hold on until late
morning, but should lift into a stratus deck by noon. Stratus and
or fog should push over the entire area within the next few hours
although the question is how long it sticks around today. As of
now most of the guidance is suggesting clouds last most of the
daytime hours, but may begin to scatter out on the southern edge.
Regardless have lowered the high temperatures today due to the
uncertainty of the cloud cover, which should roughly range from 40
in far northeast KS to 50 in central KS. By tonight the surface
high retreats eastward allowing return flow. The better chances
for stratus tonight will push slightly westward into central KS
and central NE ahead of the next shortwave forecast to track over
the northern plains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Another above normal day is on track for Tuesday, as area remains
between systems and under warm nose aloft. Highs forecast to mix
from the lower 50s northeast to near 60 in the west. GFS is faster
with the arrival of the front and has it through much of the area
by sunrise while NAM remains slower, bisecting the CWA by sunrise.
Think a well mixed boundary layer will keep overnight lows up in
the 30s, and may rise in the morning if frontal boundary is
slower, but otherwise expect steady to falling temperatures on
Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s may occur early. Lows
fall quickly into the teens as the cold high moves due south into
the Central Plains. Cold advection slowly moderates and shifts
east into Thursday but highs only around 20 in the northeast to
lower 30s in the southern counties.
Large scale longwave trof setting up over the Eastern half of the
US is persistent in sending rounds of cold air nearly due
southward out of central Canada into the Plains for late week into
the weekend. Friday still a transition day between cold surges and
brings a rebound back into the 40s to near 50 for high
temperatures before more cold air comes southward for Saturday.
Trend for the eastern trof is deeper and farther south and west,
however it does appear to progress to the east later in the
weekend as the upper jet rounds the base of the trof and next
shortwave across Canada aids in an easterly trend. Temperatures in
the 30s to low 40s could be generous for Saturday, as may be the
forecast lows in the upper teens, but could start to see
moderating influences by Sunday. Kept a near normal temperature
forecast in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
Expect conditions at the terminals to improve a bit this afternoon
to the MVFR range. The stratus should persist though and the
possibility of dipping back into the IFR category tonight will
likely play out. Late in the TAF period we should see more a more
stable trend in the improvement of conditions to the MVFR then
eventually VFR as the stratus recedes north of the terminals and a
weak ridge pushes through the region.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1040 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DECK IN ITS WAKE. HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED THE GRID/ZONES TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL KS UNTIL NOON...AS LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL KS UNTIL
AROUND NOON BEFORE IT STARTS TO BURN OFF. SO NOON EXPIRATION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD BE OKAY. STAY TUNED.
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK AND NE FLOW WILL CERTAINLY THROW WRENCH IN THE
MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL KS WILL STAY IN
THE CLOUDS/FOG AT LEAST UNTIL NOON...WHICH MAY DRASTICALLY CUT INTO
FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY. SO WILL ADJUST THE MAX TEMP DOWN
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SOME AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WICHITA TO
STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE LOW 50S.
KETCHAM
UPDATE ISSUED AT 903 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
GONNA SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE AND EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL NOON. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...WITH NE
SECTIONS OF WICHITA METRO NOW BEGINNING TO HAVE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY BURN OFF
THE FOG UNTIL AROUND NOON...AS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST RUNS
INTO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT AIR. SO THINK FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
STUBBORN TO BURN OFF...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS.
KETCHAM
UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
DENSE FOG IS ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VISIBILITY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS REPORTED TO BE LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG AND BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 15Z. VISIBILITIES MAY LIFT SOME AFTER
INITIAL DROP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...BUT FEEL EVEN PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG I-70.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT:
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO AT LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH/
WEST THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED. SOME CONCERN FOR TRANSIENT DENSE
FOG ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR...WITH 1-4 MILE VISIBILITY
FOG FURTHER INTO THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. BEST SETUP FOR DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE LOWS A BIT TRICKY AS WELL.
TUE-WED:
WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING DURING THE DAY WED. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
ROLLER COASTER DURING THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
INSOLATION VARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH FRONT LOOK TO BE QUITE
LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. BOTH SHOW A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL US...SENDING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
THE AREA ON SAT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SUN. ALWAYS A TOUGH
CALL...DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT...AS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER
FLOW COULD SHUNT COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE WAS
SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
HEDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
CHALLENGING MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MOVING IN WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RR AND HRRR HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REALLY
FOCUSED ON IT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. FEEL KRSL/KSLN
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH KHUT/KICT AND
KCNU HAVING SOME MODERATE MVFR IMPACTS. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH IFR TO LIFR CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE WESTWARD MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRATUS WHICH WILL IMPACT
KRSL/KSLN THIS MORNING. THIS PROGRESSION WILL STOP BY MID MORNING
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 35 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 57 35 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 53 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 53 34 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 59 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 60 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 62 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 51 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 54 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 53 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 49 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 48 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 51 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-083.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
415 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NEW LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL REFORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE RADAR REF RETURNS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME...COLD AND DRY
LLVL AIR IS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNFL FROM REACHING THE
GROUND EVEN TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. OUR BEST ESTIMATION IS THAT THE
OUTER ISLANDS AND ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SW COASTAL HANCOCK
COUNTY MAY BE EXPERIENCING LGT SN ATTM. THE FACT THAT MOST OF
COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY HAS NOT RECEIVED MEASURABLE SN SINCE LATE
LATE NGT AND FCST RADAR REF BY THE HRRR MODEL BARELY BRUSHES
COASTAL DOWNEAST ME INTO THE OVRNGT HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP THE
REMAINING PTN OF THE SN ADV. ANY ACCUMULATING SNFL...MSLY THIS EVE
WILL BE LMTD TO THE COAST AND WILL MSLY AMT TO AN INCH OR LESS
WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OR SO OVR THE OUTER ISLANDS...WITH ANY STEADY
LGT SNFL MOVG SE OF THE COAST LATE TNGT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BEGIN CLR OVR THE N AND PTLY TO MSLY CLDY
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THIS EVE. A WEAK S/WV FROM CNTRL QB COULD
BEING CLDNSS BACK TO NRN ME LATE TNGT AS IT CROSSES JUST N OF THE
REGION. FOR THIS REASON...IT WILL BE ANOTHER TRICKY NGT FOR FCST
LOW TEMPS. EVEN SO...925MB TEMPS LATE TNGT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN LAST NGTS...SO EVEN UNDER MCLR SKIES ALL NGT...OVRNGT LOWS
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD...AND OF COURSE...ANY ADDITIONAL LOWER CLD
CVR LATE TNGT WILL EVEN ADD A FEW DEG F TO LOWS.
BEHIND THE NRN BRANCH S/WV...A MDT RE-SURGENCE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM
NRN QB MOVES SE INTO THE REGION FROM NRN QB LATE TUE INTO TUE NGT
WHICH AFT MILDER HI TEMPS TUE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD OVRNGT
LOW TUES NGT...PERHAPS COLDER THAN WHAT WE SHOW THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND 10 TO 15
ABOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD BE TRICKY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS
WHERE LOWS MAY GET DOWN TO AS COLD AS 10 BELOW IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP EAST OF THE NJ COAST LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE
LIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT STILL
CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE. ANY SNOW WILL WIND
DOWN LATER FRIDAY AND GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW COULD BRING MORE SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES THRU TUE NGT...XCPT MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH LGT SNFL AT KBHB UNTIL LATE TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE
IN -SN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE IN SN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH AN SCA THRU THE LATE NGT...WITH WINDS
DROPPING BLO SCA LVL ON TUE...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BACK TO SCA
RANGE LATE TUE NGT. THE MIDNGT CREW CAN DETERMINE WHETHER TO KEEP
AN SCA UP FOR WED OR TO CHG FOR AN SCA FOR SEAS ON TUE.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO WINDS...MDT FZGSPY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
OVRNGT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...THEN BECOME LGT ON TUE AND
INCREASE AGAIN TO MDT BY LATE TUE NGT. CURRENT OBSVD WV HTS ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE...SO BEGAN THIS EVE ABOUT A
FOOT ABV THEN TRANSITIONED TO WW3 VALUES ON TUE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND/SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING THAT
LIFTED INVRN BASE UP TO ARND 4K FT AGL BROUGHT AN UPTICK THIS MRNG
TO THE LES IN THE PRESENCE OF INVRN BASE TEMPS ARND -12C OVER MAINLY
THE NCNTRL WHERE OBSVD N WINDS UPSLOPE. BUT DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHRTWV PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG HAVE
CAUSED THE LES TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN...AND EVEN FOR THE LO CLDS TO
BREAK UP TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. SINCE THE 12Z INL/YPL ROABS TO THE NW
SHOW MSTR EXTENDING UP THRU ABOUT H7...PLENTY OF CLD COVER AND SOME
FLURRIES LINGER UPSTREAM IN NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHRTWV IS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND
OVER THE WRN RDG.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LLVLS WL REMAIN COLD ENUF FOR LES...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT DEPRESS
INVRN BASE TOWARD 2-3K FT WL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
INITIALLY...LLVL LIGHT WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE NW INTO
THIS EVNG AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SFC RDG. SO MOST OF THE LINGERING
LES/LK CLDS SHOULD BE TO THE E OF MQT AND OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS
EVNG. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SFC RDG AXIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A MESOLO PRES TO DVLP. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF A GOOD DEAL OF ICE
NEAR LK SUP E OF MARQUETTE WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS
FEATURE IN THESE AREAS. AS THE WINDS TEND TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NE
LATER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG AXIS TO THE E...SOME LES
MIGHT SHIFT BACK TOWARD MARQUETTE. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO MOVE BY LATE TNGT. BUT SINCE SFC RDG
AXIS WL BE PASSING THRU AT THAT TIME...THE IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E AND SCNTRL WHERE LIGHT E
WINDS WL DRAIN OFF SOME VERY COLD OVER ONTARIO AND MSTR/CLDS TO THE
NW WL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING.
TUE...LARGE SCALE WAA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN INCRSG SSE
FLOW BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TO THE E AND IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW OVER THE PAC NW THAT WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS
FCST TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FORCING AND
ACCOMPANYING UVV WL ALLOW FOR THICKENING CLDS AND SOME SN TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 3 G/KG UNDER THE AXIS OF WAA INDICATES A FEW INCHES OF SN MAY
ACCUMULATE OVER THE FAR W BY 00Z DESPITE A RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
BOUTS OF COLD AND SNOW WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SNOW WILL BE EXPANDING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN SFC LOW OVER S AND CENTRAL MN CROSSES FAR W BY 06Z...AND SPLITS
THE AREA IN HALF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -
12C BEHIND THE LOW...WITH -20C AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING ON FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW.
CONTINUED TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL HELP PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE 2-4.5IN OF SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE FOCUS OF MODERATE LES FOR
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE LONGER DURATION LES FOR THE N WIND
FAVORED AREAS OF GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON AND BARAGA/MARQUETTE E ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C.
WITH ALL THIS COLD AIR...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ZERO THURSDAY MORNING INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.
THE N WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
ALL OF SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF LES N CENTRAL. DID BUMP UP
THE WINDS/GUSTS APPROX 5KTS SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT IT FROM A
DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE...THIS WIND SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A
RESTRICTION OR ROAD CLOSURE OF M-28 EAST OF HARVEY THROUGH MUNISING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON THE SNOW JUST
OFFSHORE. AS THIS IS STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...LOOK FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE ONGOING FCST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW SINING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PUSHES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS S CANADA AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE IN. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL CAUSE PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL
DOMINATE SAW EARLY...EXPECT SOME VFR WX TO RETURN TO SAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG AS THE LLVL WINDS BACK TO A DOWNSLOPE NW DIRECTION UNDER
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN APRCHG HI PRES RDG. BUT AS THE
SFC RDG PASSES TO THE E OF THE AREA...VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE NE
OVERNGT AND THEN THE SE ON TUE WL BRING A RETURN OF LO CLDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS ON TUE. AT IWD...MVFR CIGS WL LINGER INTO
THIS EVNG IN THE NW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCH SFC RDG. AS THE FLOW TURNS
TO A DOWNSLOPE SE DIRECTION TNGT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT
SITE THRU TUE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
A COUPLE ROUNDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY ERODE TUESDAY...AS A LOW
NEARS FROM THE N PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY END UP DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WHILE A HIGH ACROSS S
CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY MOVES TO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
...AND BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
E LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS
MAINLY N WINDS INCREASE W/30-40KT GUSTS.
LOOK FOR A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT TO SINK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY N GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...- NONE -
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING THAT
LIFTED INVRN BASE UP TO ARND 4K FT AGL BROUGHT AN UPTICK THIS MRNG
TO THE LES IN THE PRESENCE OF INVRN BASE TEMPS ARND -12C OVER MAINLY
THE NCNTRL WHERE OBSVD N WINDS UPSLOPE. BUT DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHRTWV PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG HAVE
CAUSED THE LES TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN...AND EVEN FOR THE LO CLDS TO
BREAK UP TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. SINCE THE 12Z INL/YPL ROABS TO THE NW
SHOW MSTR EXTENDING UP THRU ABOUT H7...PLENTY OF CLD COVER AND SOME
FLURRIES LINGER UPSTREAM IN NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHRTWV IS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND
OVER THE WRN RDG.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LLVLS WL REMAIN COLD ENUF FOR LES...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT DEPRESS
INVRN BASE TOWARD 2-3K FT WL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
INITIALLY...LLVL LIGHT WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE NW INTO
THIS EVNG AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SFC RDG. SO MOST OF THE LINGERING
LES/LK CLDS SHOULD BE TO THE E OF MQT AND OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS
EVNG. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SFC RDG AXIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A MESOLO PRES TO DVLP. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF A GOOD DEAL OF ICE
NEAR LK SUP E OF MARQUETTE WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS
FEATURE IN THESE AREAS. AS THE WINDS TEND TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NE
LATER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG AXIS TO THE E...SOME LES
MIGHT SHIFT BACK TOWARD MARQUETTE. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO MOVE BY LATE TNGT. BUT SINCE SFC RDG
AXIS WL BE PASSING THRU AT THAT TIME...THE IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E AND SCNTRL WHERE LIGHT E
WINDS WL DRAIN OFF SOME VERY COLD OVER ONTARIO AND MSTR/CLDS TO THE
NW WL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING.
TUE...LARGE SCALE WAA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN INCRSG SSE
FLOW BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TO THE E AND IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW OVER THE PAC NW THAT WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS
FCST TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FORCING AND
ACCOMPANYING UVV WL ALLOW FOR THICKENING CLDS AND SOME SN TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 3 G/KG UNDER THE AXIS OF WAA INDICATES A FEW INCHES OF SN MAY
ACCUMULATE OVER THE FAR W BY 00Z DESPITE A RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
PRELIMINARY. THIS SECTION TO BE EXPANDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
BOUTS OF COLD AND SNOW WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LOOK FOR STRONG WINDS N CENTRAL ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR NOT ONLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO FOR
LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL CAUSE PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL
DOMINATE SAW EARLY...EXPECT SOME VFR WX TO RETURN TO SAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG AS THE LLVL WINDS BACK TO A DOWNSLOPE NW DIRECTION UNDER
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN APRCHG HI PRES RDG. BUT AS THE
SFC RDG PASSES TO THE E OF THE AREA...VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE NE
OVERNGT AND THEN THE SE ON TUE WL BRING A RETURN OF LO CLDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS ON TUE. AT IWD...MVFR CIGS WL LINGER INTO
THIS EVNG IN THE NW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCH SFC RDG. AS THE FLOW TURNS
TO A DOWNSLOPE SE DIRECTION TNGT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT
SITE THRU TUE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
A COUPLE ROUNDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY ERODE TUESDAY...AS A LOW
NEARS FROM THE N PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY END UP DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WHILE A HIGH ACROSS S
CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY MOVES TO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
...AND BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
E LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS
MAINLY N WINDS INCREASE W/30-40KT GUSTS.
LOOK FOR A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT TO SINK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY N GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROF
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING THAT
LIFTED INVRN BASE UP TO ARND 4K FT AGL BROUGHT AN UPTICK THIS MRNG
TO THE LES IN THE PRESENCE OF INVRN BASE TEMPS ARND -12C OVER MAINLY
THE NCNTRL WHERE OBSVD N WINDS UPSLOPE. BUT DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHRTWV PASSAGE AND IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG HAVE
CAUSED THE LES TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN...AND EVEN FOR THE LO CLDS TO
BREAK UP TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. SINCE THE 12Z INL/YPL ROABS TO THE NW
SHOW MSTR EXTENDING UP THRU ABOUT H7...PLENTY OF CLD COVER AND SOME
FLURRIES LINGER UPSTREAM IN NRN MN AND NW ONTARIO. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHRTWV IS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND
OVER THE WRN RDG.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LLVLS WL REMAIN COLD ENUF FOR LES...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT DEPRESS
INVRN BASE TOWARD 2-3K FT WL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
INITIALLY...LLVL LIGHT WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE NW INTO
THIS EVNG AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SFC RDG. SO MOST OF THE LINGERING
LES/LK CLDS SHOULD BE TO THE E OF MQT AND OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS
EVNG. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SFC RDG AXIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A MESOLO PRES TO DVLP. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF A GOOD DEAL OF ICE
NEAR LK SUP E OF MARQUETTE WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS
FEATURE IN THESE AREAS. AS THE WINDS TEND TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NE
LATER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE RDG AXIS TO THE E...SOME LES
MIGHT SHIFT BACK TOWARD MARQUETTE. ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO MOVE BY LATE TNGT. BUT SINCE SFC RDG
AXIS WL BE PASSING THRU AT THAT TIME...THE IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E AND SCNTRL WHERE LIGHT E
WINDS WL DRAIN OFF SOME VERY COLD OVER ONTARIO AND MSTR/CLDS TO THE
NW WL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING.
TUE...LARGE SCALE WAA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN INCRSG SSE
FLOW BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TO THE E AND IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV NOW OVER THE PAC NW THAT WL BE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS
FCST TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FORCING AND
ACCOMPANYING UVV WL ALLOW FOR THICKENING CLDS AND SOME SN TO PUSH
INTO THE WRN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 3 G/KG UNDER THE AXIS OF WAA INDICATES A FEW INCHES OF SN MAY
ACCUMULATE OVER THE FAR W BY 00Z DESPITE A RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
A FAIRLY ACTIVE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD AND
BRINGING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
COLD AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
THE NORTH WIND SNOWBELTS. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
STARTING TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. EXPECT SNOW TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
THEN STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE WEST AS THE MAIN PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS ENERGY...THUS QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
UP WHEN COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM THE 00Z
MODEL RUNS HAS QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.2-0.3 INCH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. WITH A LITTLE STRONGER PUSH OF THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE OF THE CLOUD BEING BELOW THE DGZ VS IN
IT...SO WILL FOLLOW THE COBB SNOW RATIOS OF AROUND 13-14 TO 1 FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS ENDS UP PRODUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
2 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY NEEDING AN ADVISORY
WITH THIS PERIOD OF SNOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD PUSH EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND THAT DOES LEAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A CONCERN OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIXING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS HOVERING
AROUND -10C WHICH IS BORDERLINE FOR SEEING DRIZZLE...SO WILL STICK
TO SNOW AT THIS POINT AND REASSESS ON FUTURE SHIFTS.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS BEFORE THE COLD AIR SURGES
INTO THE AREA UNDER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
USHER IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C
TUESDAY NIGHT TO -24C WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LAKE EFFECT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8KFT)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS...QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL FOCUS THE SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS. WILL
FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS/SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA) WHERE THE LONGEST ICE FREE FETCH
IS LOCATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE
ICE AROUND ISLE ROYALE SHORTENING THE FETCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE
FORCING WILL BE IN THE DGZ DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT...THINK THE STRONG WINDS (30-40KTS) WILL FRACTURE THE FLAKES
AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. BUT THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION (LIKELY BELOW 1/2MI AT TIMES IN SPOTS BETWEEN
MARQUETTE/MUNISING) AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEIGHTENED WORDING IN
THE HWO. AT THIS POINT...HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES OVER
THE WEST AND 3 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE EAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY...AS AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL CANADA
LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO)...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A COLD NIGHT
WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. IT MAY BE
A SHORT LIVED CLEARING...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACH THE AREA...BUT WILL STILL GO TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTIONS
(TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR) SINCE JUST A COUPLE HOURS OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND
-30C ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
MUCH ABOVE ZERO AND HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. IN
FACT...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO THE NORMAL LOWS FOR THAT TIME
FRAME. THAT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO VERY FINE FLAKE LAKE
EFFECT AND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN GUSTING TO 25-40KTS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT VERY POOR VISIBILITIES
(LIKELY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES BETWEEN MARQUETTE/MUNISING ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE). WILL ADD THAT MENTION TO THE HWO WITH SIMILAR
WORDING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL CAUSE PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS WL
DOMINATE SAW EARLY...EXPECT SOME VFR WX TO RETURN TO SAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVNG AS THE LLVL WINDS BACK TO A DOWNSLOPE NW DIRECTION UNDER
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN APRCHG HI PRES RDG. BUT AS THE
SFC RDG PASSES TO THE E OF THE AREA...VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE NE
OVERNGT AND THEN THE SE ON TUE WL BRING A RETURN OF LO CLDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS ON TUE. AT IWD...MVFR CIGS WL LINGER INTO
THIS EVNG IN THE NW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCH SFC RDG. AS THE FLOW TURNS
TO A DOWNSLOPE SE DIRECTION TNGT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT
SITE THRU TUE MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015
A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE PD. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING AS A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT THEN
WINDS RAMP UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTH GALES 35-40
KNOTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE LATE
WED INTO THU...STRONGEST CENTRAL AND EAST. NORTH WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN BLO GALES LATE THU OVER THE ERN LAKE AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING IN ON FRI WILL BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF NORTH GALES 35-40 KNOTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT EVENING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
TURNED OUT TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY OUTSIDE OF WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN
MN...AS A WEDGE OF DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
WRN ONTARIO HELPED CLEAR SKIES OUT. HOWEVER...TROUBLE IS ALREADY
BREWING TO OUR WEST AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY WORK ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND MN TUESDAY...PROVIDING US WITH THE POTPOURRI OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WE DID NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY WITH WHAT WAS SEEN
LAST NIGHT...SO THIS FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT
EITHER...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE BEING TO SLOW
DOWN HOW QUICKLY PRECIP MOVES INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE MPX CWA.
THIS FORECAST FAVORED THE GFS FOR BOTH P-TYPE AND QPF. FOR P-
TYPE...THE NAM...ALONG WITH THE RAP WERE CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. HAD WE GONE THE NAM
ROUTE...A MIX WOULD HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FARTHER NORTH THAN IT IS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SAID MIX WOULD BE MORE OF A FZRA/SLEET/SNOW
MIX /MOST LIKELY TO LEAST LIKELY/ AS OPPOSED TO THE CURRENT
SLEET/SNOW/FZRA MIX THAT WE HAVE.
FOR QPF...THE NAM IS A CONSIDERABLE SRN OUTLIER. THE POTENTIAL
PROBLEM WITH IT STARTS TONIGHT...WHEN THE NAM SHOWS NEARLY A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF FALLING BY 12Z TUESDAY IN NE SODAK...IN ADDITION TO
ANOTHER QPF BULLSEYE FROM CENTRAL NODAK INTO SE NODAK. THE RAP AND
HOPWRF HAVE THE NODAK BULLSEYE...BUT SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS QPF INTO
SODAK. THE LATENT HEAT DIFFERENCES THIS CREATES THEN CASCADES INTO
TUESDAY...WHEN THE NAM SHOWS QPF IN EXCESS OF 0.3" ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO MANKATO. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE NODAK QPF...BUT MUCH
LOWER QPF DOWN INTO SODAK...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE RAP/HOPWRF
HAVE...HENCE FAVORING THE QPF THAT DIRECTION. WE THEN TEMPERED THE
GFS QPF A BIT WITH THE ECMWF/SREF AND ENDED UP WITH 0.3" QPF DOWN
ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN CITIES DOWN TO MENOMINEE. CONVERTING
THIS QPF OVER TO SNOW WITH RATIOS IN THE 10-12:1 RANGE AND WE ENDED
UP WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES NORTH OF A
MORRIS/MINNEAPOLIS/EAU CLAIRE LINE WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNTS UP
AROUND MILLE LACS LAKE TO POINTS EAST.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL MN AS THEY WILL GET THE
COMBINATION OF WAA AND DEFORMATION SNOW. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE WAA BAND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY NEAR OR IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...SO THIS SNOW WILL FALL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME. TIMING WISE...THINGS DO NOT LOOK TO BE TO DISSIMILAR
FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST TUESDAY WHEN ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW SEVERAL
IMPACTED THE EVENING COMMUTE IN THE TWIN CITIES. WITH A SIMILAR
SCENARIO EXPECTED TO TO PLAY OUT TOMORROW...PULLED THE ADVISORY DOWN
TO COVER ALL BUT THE SRN TWIN CITIES METRO. DECIDED AGAINST PUTTING
HEADLINES ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW SINCE THERE ARE
MORE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
ACTUALLY SEE. IN ADDITION...WITH CURRENT PRIMARY P-TYPE EXPECTED TO
BE SLEET AS OPPOSED TO FREEZING RAIN...THAT WILL LIMIT THE TRAVEL
IMPACT FROM THIS PRECIP AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE AN AREA THAT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS BLW NORMAL IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES AS THE MEAN PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE NW
DIRECTION...LEADING TO COLDER CANADIAN AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD.
A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MN
RIVER VALLEY WILL QUICKLY CHG TO ALL SNOW AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
REPLACES THE CURRENT ONE. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY
SHRTWV MOVING SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA BEHIND IT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SC MN WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WAS CONSIDERING A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM IN
THESE AREAS...BUT DO TO A LACK OF SNOW COVER AND NO ADDITIONAL NEW
SNOW EXPECTED...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONCERNS.
VERY LITTLE CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED PAST TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BY NEXT MONDAY AS THE MEAN PATTERN WILL
REMAIN DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. TWO STRONG COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ONE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING...AND ANOTHER
FRIDAY AFTN/SATURDAY MORNING. THESE FRONTS WILL CAUSE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.
OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS...THE MEAN AREA OF ARCTIC AIR HAS REMAINED
ACROSS NE NORTH AMERICA...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NE CONUS...AND
EASTERN CANADA. ONCE IN A WHILE A BRIEF COLD SPELL MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS THE PATTERN BUCKLES. THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ON NCEP GEFS REFORECASTS CFS/V2...HAS 50H
ANOMALIES SHIFTING ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION...WITH A SECONDARY 50H
ANOMALY FOCUSING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SW. THIS BASICALLY SHIFTS THE
COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST CANADA FURTHER TO THE SW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE EASTERN 1/3 OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A STRONGER CORRELATION OF ABV NORMAL ANOMALIES FOCUSING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FAR WEST COAST. THE TIME FRAME FOR
THIS PERIOD IS FEB 15 TO FEB 24. THE 45 DAY CFS PLUMES FOR THE PAST
4 RUNS DOES SUPPORT THE COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPING IN OUR REGION FOR
THE SECOND AND THIRD WEEK OF FEB 24. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS IT MAYBE
A WETTER PATTERN AS THE STRONGER JET WORKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...LEADING TO A BETTER CHC OF A THERMAL BOUNDARY AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A NICE WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS PUSHED DOWN FROM THE NE...HELPING
CLEAR SKIES OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST DOES THIS CLEARING MAKE IT. FOR
NOW...LEFT CLOUDS IN ONLY AT AXN...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
OTHERWISE...THIS DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING BACK IN WITH THE PRECIP TUE MORNING. AS
FOR THAT PRECIP...ONLY CHANGE MADE FROM 12Z TAFS WAS TO SLOW DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP SOME. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INITIAL
HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP BEING A SLEET/SNOW MIX AT AXN BEFORE GOING
ALL SNOW...WHILE RWF WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE BE OF EVERYTHING.
KEPT STC/MSP AS ALL SNOW...THOUGH THE NAM BRINGS WARM AIR FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME MIX INTO THE EQUATION AT MSP. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A QUICK...BUT HEAVY BURST OF PRECIP LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE PERSISTENT SNOW HANGING
UP IN CENTRAL MN...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF AXN/STC.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDS REMAINING THROUGH
12Z...THOUGH THERE IS SOME THREAT WE COULD SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE PRECIP. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON
PRECIP TIMING TUE MORNING...EXPECT PRECIP TO BREAK OUT +/- 1.5
HOURS FROM WHAT IS IN THE TAF. FAVORED THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS PYTPE
AS SNOW...WHICH IS THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE SEEN WITH THE SREF.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
STRONG PRECIP BURST...WHERE VIS...ASSUMING IT IS ALL SNOW...WILL
LIKELY GET DOWN TO 1/2SM. CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW IN TIMING WHEN THAT
MAY OCCUR AND WE HAVE A COUPLE OF MORE ITERATION OF THE TAF
BEFORE WE GET THERE ANYWAYS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR WITH. WINDS NW 15G25-30KT.
THU...BCMG VFR. WINDS BCMG LGT/VAR.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG NW 15-20G25 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041-
042-047>049-054>058-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ014-015-023-025.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1039 AM MST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS PROMISED...REVISITED THE FOG SITUATION. THE FOGS SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF DISSIPATING SOON...EXCEPT FOR GARFIELD COUNTY. THEREFORE
UPDATED WX GRID AFTERNOON FOG BASED ON RAP AND HRRR. MODIFIED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO STRETCH OUT TO 21Z. SCT
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND IT WILL
BE REVISITED LATER IN THE MORNING. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD TREND COOLER TODAY. MADE UPDATE BASED ON
RAP GUIDANCE WHICH LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HI-LINE ABOUT 6 DEGREES COOLER. THIS INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BEING SOONER. THIS RESULTED IN ALTERING
THE START TIME AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDING THE FZRA ADVSRY. AGAIN USED
THE POT TOOL TO DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SET OVER
THE CANADIAN TERRITORIES WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WARMING DOWN
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WHERE ITS FORMS A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WARM CORE RIDGE RUNS
NORTH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH UTAH AND COMES TO A HEAD OVER
WESTERN MONTANA. FARTHER WEST...A COOL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA UP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MORNING WILL BEGIN AS DENSE FOG FROM THE
WAFFLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH. THE TIP
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THIS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT AS THE RIDGE EXITS
TO THE EAST. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOWING OVER THE BORDER
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FORMING UP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THE [PRECIP
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW SOME OF THE MODIFIED COLD AIR DOWN
OVERNIGHT. AS THE SURFACE AIR IS BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ENOUGH COLD WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO THE AREA TO TRANSITION ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW
SHOWERS. AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING BY THIS TIME CHANCES FOR
SNOW ARE VERY LOW AND LIKELY ON FLURRIES WILL BE EXPERIENCE
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ALSO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GAH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
WHICH PUTS EASTERN MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ODELS BRING A
WARM FRONT EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
IN THE SOUTHWEST THAN IN THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT WARMING IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE FRONT
BACK WEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT
ON HOW FAR THE FRONT GOES BEFORE IT MOVES EAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN COLDER NORTHEAST AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST GETS FLATTENED ON SATURDAY BY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES ARE
POSSIBLE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRINGS A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING WITH EITHER DENSE FOG OR VERY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED BEGIN TO THIN AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY AT THE
TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A MIX OF LOW VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS.
WINDS: WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TODAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...
NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
AT H5 TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIDGE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT REVOLVES AROUND THE WESTWARD
RETURN OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THE NAM MODEL IS ONCE AGAIN THE MOST
BULLISH WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY...BRINGING DENSE FOG AS FAR WEST AS
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR
NOW...WHICH INDICATES FOG IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS SEEN EARLIER
TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS...SO AM EXPECTING A GREATER WESTWARD...OR
SOUTHWEST...TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND...WHICH WILL
DRAW DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWN
TO BE ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 281 BY 12Z TOMORROW. FOR THIS...WOULD
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY AND SKY COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD ONLY BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR EAST.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE
KEYING ON THE GREATEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
WITH SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...RAIN WILL BE
DIFFICULT. AM LEANING TOWARD A DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN...IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO BE REALIZED. ANY LIFT IS QUICKLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY...BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF
THE DAY APPEARS DRY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD AS WAA SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF THE
PASSING SURFACE TROUGH. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
WHERE GREATER MIXING IS ANTICIPATED. FOR TUESDAY...THE DISTURBANCE
WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS
WERE TRENDED ACCORDINGLY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A DROP OF 5-7F
FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM AND THEN HAVING SOME
VARIABILITY IN LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVED FURTHER
EAST WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO BROKEN BOW. WARMER 40S TO THE SOUTHWEST AND 30S TO
THE NORTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUITE COLD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SINGLE DIGITS ONEILL AND LOW 20S OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOME WHAT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. MILD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE 20S ONEILL TO MID 40S IMPERIAL.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY WITH 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH IN RETURN
FLOW. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE
A RETURN TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST CYCLE AS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS
MIXED ON THE EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF STRATUS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST BULLISH IN DEVELOPING STRATUS WEST ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS IS SUGGESTING CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12K FEET. ATTM...DISCOUNTING
THE NAM GUIDANCE AS SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD HELP
SCOUR MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SHOWED A SIMILAR WESTWARD
PROGRESSION LAST NIGHT IMPACTING KVTN AND KLBF...THIS HAS NOT
HAPPENED IN A WHILE...DESPITE SOLID SNOW MELT. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT ENTIRE RULE OUT THAT UPDATES
MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE DENSE FOG IS SHOWN TO IMPACT OUR EASTERN
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LIFT AT KONL...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
POINTS TO A QUICK RETURN OVERNIGHT...THIS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE KBBW
TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1148 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR VISIBILITY GUIDANCE...FELT IT
PRUDENT TO ADD FRANKLIN/SMITH/OSBORNE COUNTIES TO EXISTING DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...AS THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS JUST STARTING
TO CREEP INTO THESE AREAS AND THE WORST FOG SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND
ROUGHLY 50 MILES BEHIND THE EDGE. INTERESTINGLY...THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF FOG/STRATUS MAY FINALLY BE
STALLING...AND ONCOMING DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS VERY SHARP EDGE TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR
RESULTANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WHAT 24 HOURS AGO APPEARED TO BE A FAIRLY "STRAIGHTFORWARD" SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CWA-WIDE HAS
UNFORTUNATELY MORPHED INTO A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD WITH
PLENTY OF FOG (SOME DENSE) TO START OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY AT-LEAST-LIGHT FOG HANGING ON EVEN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND OF
COURSE THE RESULTANT FAIRLY MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLY ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING 1ST
PERIOD HIGH TEMP FORECASTS THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN AWHILE...AS
THERE WILL EASILY BE A 20-30 DEGREE GRADIENT FROM THE
CLOUDY/CHILLIER EAST-NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY/WARMER
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ACROSS A CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CWA HERE THE EDGE OF THE STUBBORN STRATUS WILL LIKELY RESIDE MUCH
OF THE DAY...THERE IS EASILY 10-DEGREE TEMP BUST POTENTIAL. PUT
ANOTHER WAY...UNFORTUNATELY THOSE HOPING FOR A REALLY NICE AND AT
LEAST PARTIALLY SUNNY DAY ANYWHERE NEAR AND EAST THROUGH NORTH OF
THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE FACING A GLOOMY MONDAY LETDOWN.
NOT EVEN COUNTING THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST MODIFICATIONS
MADE TO MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TODAY...THERE IS YET ANOTHER QUANDARY
REGARDING WHETHER AT LEAST LIGHT FOG WILL REALLY EVER COMPLETELY
GO AWAY ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ISSUES AGAIN SHOWING THEIR HAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THAN
THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO
WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN A BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" MENTION FOR
TONIGHT.
WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON...FORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS STILL
PRETTY HIGH IN A PRECIP-FREE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH THE 00Z/06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH/BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COULD GET DEEP ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 92 AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...WITH LOW TEMPS FORECAST TO
DROP NO LOWER THAN 32-34 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THIS
AREA...WAS ABLE TO STEER CLEAR OF ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/ICING
CONCERNS.
GOING OVER THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
REGIME THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WITHIN ROUGHLY 50 MILES
BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOLID DECK OF LOW STRATUS WHICH HAS
STEADILY "BACK-DOORED" INTO THE CWA FROM EAST- TO-WEST SINCE LAST
EVENING BEHIND A MODEST COLD FRONT. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS
STRATUS IS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE CWA FROM WEST- TO- EAST...WITH
WESTERN COUNTIES CLEAR AND LARGELY FOG-FREE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO
THE SITUATION FARTHER EAST. IN THE LARGER-SCALE MID- UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...YOU WOULDN/T EXPECT TO HAVE SO MANY COMPLICATIONS GOING ON
AT THE SURFACE...AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA REVEAL A FAIRLY BENIGN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF
BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP-WISE...MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD REALIZE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-33 RANGE...WITH
THE LOW STRATUS OBVIOUSLY HALTING MUCH OF ANY FALL CENTRAL AND
EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD-FORECAST WISE...THE PARAMOUNT CONCERN RIGHT AWAY IS
THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST
COUNTIES EAST-NORTHEAST OF A KEARNEY-OSBORNE LINE. TO ITS
CREDIT...THE VARIOUS OVERNIGHT HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RUNS HAVE
BEEN DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB CAPTURING THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE STRATUS AND FOG. BASED ON ITS TRENDS ALONG WITH 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE COUNTIES NEEDING TACKED
ONTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXISTING ADVISORY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. AS FOR ADVISORY
TIMING...IN KEEPING IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT
ISSUED THEIR ADVISORIES FIRST...HAVE GONE WITH A 15Z/9AM
EXPIRATION TIME...BUT AM FEELING MORE AND MORE STRONGLY THAT DAY
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z/NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE TRI- CITIES. WITH SURFACE BREEZES ONLY VERY SLOWLY PICKING UP
TODAY TO GENERALLY 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THIS HAS THE
LOOKS OF A DAY THAT COULD KEEP AT LEAST LIGHT FOG FIRMLY IN PLACE
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY LONG IN AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MOVING BEYOND THE OBVIOUS FOG ISSUES...THE NEXT QUESTION FOR TODAY
IS WHETHER THE LOW STRATUS WILL TRY TO BREAK UP AT ALL AND/OR
ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR
THIS...AGAIN FOLLOWED VERY CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL THINKING...WHICH
PRESENTS A RATHER STARK CONTRAST BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND POTENTIALLY SOLID OVERCAST (AT LEAST
MOSTLY CLOUDY) IN EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT
TO PLENTY OF ERROR...MADE VERY NOTABLE 10-12 DEGREE CUTS TO HIGH
TEMPS IN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2...WITH MORE MODEST CUTS UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WERE
ACTUALLY CHANGED VERY LITTLE. THE NET RESULT...AT LEAST FOR
NOW...IS A HIGH TEMP FORECAST AIMING FROM UPPER 30S/LOW 40S MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 AND MUCH WARMER 50S TO MID-60S SOUTHWEST.
DEPENDING ON HOW THICK STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS...UPPER 30S COULD
END UP BEING OPTIMISTIC IN SOME NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS TOUCHED ON ABOVE HAVE ADDED A
BASELINE PATCHY FOG MENTION TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WHICH MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE BEEFED UP BY NEXT FEW SHIFTS
DEPENDING ON TRENDS. ONE FACTOR HOWEVER LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
GENERALLY 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A LOW-
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE BREEZES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING MUCH...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH MOST PLACES INTO
THE 33-37 RANGE. PRECIP-WISE...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF MID-
LEVEL SATURATION/FORCING SHOULD FOCUS ANY MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT
PRECIP SAFELY NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
NEB/SD BORDER...NAM PLAN-VIEW AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION DEPTH TO AROUND 1/2-KILOMETER OR
HIGHER...ALONG WITH A TELL-TALE "SPLOTCHY LIGHT QPF" SIGNAL...TO
JUSTIFY THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
NORTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY STEERS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE A
FAIRLY NICE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING. WHILE
THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO START THE DAY...WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING...ANY FOG THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BEING THE RULE BY AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
TO RAPIDLY DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE NE/KS STATE LINES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXPECTED TO DROP 10-15C BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT
A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION TO THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME THURSDAY...THE COOLER
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
OR POSSIBLY EVEN A TAD BELOW CLIMO BOTH THURSDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STEER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE...WITH THE EC BEING ROUGHLY 10F
COOLER THAN THE GFS WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH THE AGREEMENT AT LEAST A MODERATELY COOLER AIRMASS
TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA...OPTED TO TRIM DOWN BLENDED GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. OTHER THAN THE FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE IN
EXTENDED MODELS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR KEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KGRI IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WE ARE HOLDING OUT HOPE THAT SOME IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE NOTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE THE REGION.
STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 200FT AGL...PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING...AND FOG WITH VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW 1/4SM PERSISTS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS.
AS A RESULT...KGRI REMAINS AT VLIFR LEVELS IN RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY AND A LOW CEILING. KEAR IS JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST AND
LUCKILY...IS CURRENTLY OBSERVING VFR CONDITIONS...A TREND WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
HOPE THAT THIS FOG COULD DISSIPATE AND THE CEILING COULD INCREASE
AT KGRI LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SUNSET IS LOW AND MULTIPLE TAF AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW AT
KGRI...WENT AHEAD WITH VLIFR THROUGH 19Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
AND TEMPO VLIFR 19-21Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR 21-10Z...AND THEN IFR
CONDITIONS 10-15Z. FOR KEAR...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE THE STRATUS/FOG TRIES TO MAKE A PUSH FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE SURFACE WIND AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL
START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT
06-12Z...BUT AT THIS TIME THIS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO WEAK FOR INCLUSION IN EITHER TAF.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-
018-019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A CAM SHOT OF A CAR TRAVELING NEAR NEWPORT INDICATES NO FOG WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE SHOWING SOME EROSION ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. WEST WINDS AT AINSWORTH SUPPORT THIS. ROCK
COUNTY HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND FOG APPEAR TO BE STATIONARY AT 08Z. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND DRAW THE
FRONT WEST TOWARD HIGHWAY 83. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
USES THE RAP AND ARW MODELS WHICH HAVE DISPOSED OF ANY SNOW COVER
FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 40S EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT FROM 15Z ONWARD AND
INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
PREVENT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DROPS INTO SCNTL SD. LOWS
TONIGHT REFLECT THIS WITH 30S MOST AREAS...20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY CONFLUENCE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE FREEZING LOWS FORECAST TONIGHT...THE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCE NORTH OF ONEILL SHOULD NOT POSE AN ICE THREAT AND ALL MODEL
SOLNS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE CASE KEEPING THAT RISK WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF ONEILL
ARE NEAR OR AT FREEZING SUGGESTING IT WILL BE CLOSE.
LASTLY...ALL MODELS MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE FRONT. A MULTI MODEL
BLEND WAS USED FOR SKY COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LINED UP CLOSE
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE ARW AND RAP MODELS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST IS
AT HAND.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE TIME
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STAYS PERSISTENT WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS LEAVES
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT PASS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...AND AS TIMING HAS IMPROVED WHEN COMPARING MODELS
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THEIR INFLUENCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE LOOKING CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES FURTHER
ONSHORE AND CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO BREAK
UP INTO SEVERAL WEAK PV ANOMALIES...WITH THE FIRST TWO PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE THIRD STAYING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
CLOSING OFF OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH THE NORTHERN PV
ANOMALIES...THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THE SECOND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY...THEN A SECOND STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T SEE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER DO
EXPECT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES. DID INCREASE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY SLIGHTLY AS THE TREND
LATELY HAS BEEN WARMER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO AT
LEAST PUT HIGHS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR WINDS TO INCREASE WILL COME BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT
FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS GOING ALOFT AND 850MB WINDS
OF 30-40KTS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN STAY MIXED A BREEZY NIGHT WILL
BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DID LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DESPITE THE COLDER AIR PUSHING IN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY...BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SO EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850MB OR
800MB AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH NEAR NORMAL
VALUES EXPECTED. KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO
TRENDS AND AS THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUNSHINE TO HELP WARM THINGS
DURING THE DAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
ARE VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT
THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY. IN GENERAL...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE COLDEST AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BELOW -20C WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE DROPPED A FEW DEGREES...WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND AT THIS TIME IS LOOKING TO
STAY EAST INTO THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS SO WILL
KEEP THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM ORIGINATES OVER THE ARCTIC SO IT WILL HAVE COLDER AIR
YET WITH IT...BUT AS IT STAYS FAIRLY COMPACT...UNLESS THE MODELS
CHANGE TUNES AND ALLOW A TRACK FURTHER WEST...LOCAL AREAS WON/T
EXPERIENCE THE MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST WERE TRENDED COLDER FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BECAUSE OF THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THESE STRONG
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE TROUGH. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY CONTINUE TO LIE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO STAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO DISALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION FROM OCCURRING AND MAY JUST GET SOME VIRGA AT
TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 18Z TAF FORECAST CYCLE AS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS
MIXED ON THE EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF STRATUS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST BULLISH IN DEVELOPING STRATUS WEST ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS IS SUGGESTING CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12K FEET. ATTM...DISCOUNTING
THE NAM GUIDANCE AS SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD HELP
SCOUR MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SHOWED A SIMILAR WESTWARD
PROGRESSION LAST NIGHT IMPACTING KVTN AND KLBF...THIS HAS NOT
HAPPENED IN A WHILE...DESPITE SOLID SNOW MELT. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT ENTIRE RULE OUT THAT UPDATES
MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE DENSE FOG IS SHOWN TO IMPACT OUR EASTERN
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LIFT AT KONL...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
POINTS TO A QUICK RETURN OVERNIGHT...THIS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE KBBW
TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ006-007-
010-028-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
410 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
IN REGARDS TO HEADLINES...WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONTINUE THROUGH 00 UTC WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OTHER THAN ADDING
SIOUX...GRANT...STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES TO THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY...ALL OTHER WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
IN GENERAL...OVERALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE EVENT VARY LITTLE WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT UTILIZED THE 12 AND INCOMING 18 UTC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES COMPARED TO THE 06 AND 00 UTC
GUIDANCE. THE 18 THROUGH 20 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS LINE UP WELL WITH
RADAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THESE
SOLUTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM...BLENDED TO THE GLOBAL 12 AND 18 UTC
SUITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AN EXPANDED THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE REMAINED BELOW FREEZING UNDER THE STRATUS.
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 19-20 UTC RAP AND 18 UTC NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. AS ALWAYS IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES EVENTS...THIS VARIABLE IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN. EXPECT THE WARM LAYER ALOFT TO SUPPORT LIQUID TO THE
SURFACE FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
10-12 UTC...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX AND AN
EVENTUAL END TO PRECIPITATION WITH A DRY SLOT OVERTAKING THE AREA.
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND
52....PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN LOW LEVEL SATURATION WARMER
THAN -10 C UNTIL THE FULL COLUMN CAN SATURATE AND SUPPORT ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE GROUND. THE 18 UTC GFS/NAM HAVE BOTH COME IN WITH
HIGHER QPF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS IN THE 06-12 UTC TIME FRAME. THIS TREND WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED IN THE 00 UTC RUNS...AS THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
SNOWFALL...AND POSSIBLE GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE LONG TERM IS COLD...
TUESDAY`S SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS RATHER COLD ACROSS THE
EAST AND MILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL ENTER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...AROUND 20 BELOW...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
A WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH SHOULD BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS
RATHER DRY...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD KISN/KDIK/KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING OVER KMOT AND LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET AT KJMS MONDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ019>022-034>036-042-045>047-
050.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-010-017-018-033-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ002-003-
011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED
YET FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...HERE ARE THE LATEST THOUGHTS...
THE SOUTHERN WAVE APPEARS STRONG ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
COULD VERY WELL CAUSE THE ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER ALOFT TO BE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS WOULD
SPREAD FREEZING RAIN INTO MUCH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IN
ONLY A POSSIBILITY...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSESS THIS FURTHER WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE. MAY NEED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE PARTS
OF THE REGION.
TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SNOWFALL APPEARS CERTAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS STILL THE BIG QUESTION. HI-RES MODELS ALL INDICATE TWO
SEPARATE AREAS OF HIGHER QPF...RELATED TO WHERE EACH SHORTWAVE
TRACKS. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1-3 INCHES...BUT WHERE
THE STRONGER FORCING IS LOCATED (AT THIS POINT LIKELY WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA....AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER) SHOULD GET 3-5
INCHES.
THEN...20-30MPH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BLOW THE SNOW AROUND.
NOT SURE HOW TO MESSAGE OR HANDLE THIS EVENT...AND WHETHER OR NOT
HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS POINT. WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE MORE
SENSE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS OTHER OFFICES ARE
BEGINNING TO ISSUE HEADLINES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
NOT MUCH FOR CONCERNS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE
AS WARM CONSIDERING WEAK FLOW...COLDER AIRMASS...AND CLOUD COVER.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW/WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM BEGINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS
WEAK FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLURRIES AND/OR FZDZ AHEAD
OF THE STRONGER FORCING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RAP AND
OTHER VARIOUS MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY WEAK QPF IN THIS REGIME.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FZDZ POTENTIAL.
THERE IS DRY AIR ALOFT...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUPERCOOLED
WATER DROPLETS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WHERE THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER
(<-6C). DID INCLUDE PATCHY FZDZ HERE...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
INCREASING THE COVERAGE IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS.
WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TUESDAY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WIND
SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LATER UPDATES. THE THINKING REMAINS
RELATIVELY THE SAME AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU NRN MN ATTM. A NARROW AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH PARTS OF NE ND/NW MN. CLOUDS
WILL HOLD TODAY. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OVER NW MN LEFTOVER FROM
THE EXITING SHORT WAVE AND OVER NE ND/DVL BASIN UNDER STRATOCU
DECK. ROLLA-BRANDON MB AND A FEW OTHER SPOTS HAVE HAD -SN PAST FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE DRY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF OREGON COAST WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO NW NEVADA AND ERN OREGON. A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN DIFFERENT
IN QPF LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...BUT NOT BY HUGE AMOUNTS. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR A BIT NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW AND QPF. INITIAL
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THRU NRN MT INTO NW ND BY 12Z TUES. A BAND OF
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM THE LOW SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ND TONIGHT AND REACHES DVL
BASIN PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z AND THE RRV NR 12Z TUE. BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF POPS FOR A BIT DELAYED EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AS MAIN SFC
LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND TUESDAY MORNING A SECOND LOW WILL
BE IN CNTRL-ERN SD. A SECOND PIECE OF WARM ADV AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL BE DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING IN WCNTRL MN AS NRN LOW
WEAKENS A BIT. THUS MODELS DO HAVE TWO AREAS OF MAIN PRECIPITATION
ONE IN NE ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER SOMEWHERE IN WCNTRL OR
CNTRL MN TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY WITH
SOME WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW LASTING INTO NE ND/NW MN TUESDAY NIGHT.
PTYPE ISSUES APPEAR REGULATED TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA.
USING GFS THERMAL PROFILES...A BRIEF PD OF FZRA OR SLEET PSBL IN
FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF FCST AREA NR 12Z BUT OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILES AND BUFKIT AND SREF PLUMES SHOW A SNOW EVENT FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH? SW FCST AREA GETS DRY SLOTTED LIKELY WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PD OF PRECIP AND IF SNOW ONLY AMOUNTS TO 1-2 INCHES
WEST AND SOUTH OF FARGO. A BIT HEAVIER SNOW AREA DEVELOPS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL MN AND THEN INTO NW MN/NE ND WHERE SNOWFALL OF 3-4
INCHES SEEMS MORE LIKELY. SO BASED ON THIS SOME PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA WILL HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. WITHOUT MUCH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION PARTS OF SE ND MAY NOT HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL.
WITH STILL QUESTIONS ON PRECIP AND STILL PSBL FURTHER SHIFT NORTH
OF PRECIP AND WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP NOT FALLING TIL NR 12Z AND
AFTERWARDS ON TUESDAY...HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY HEADLINES. COORD
WITH ABR/MPX/DLH ON THIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL END IN NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DOMINATED WITH COLD TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY
BRINGING DOWN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. SINGLE DIGITS HIGHS EXPECTED WED
AND THURSDAY BEFORE SOME TEMP MODERATION WITH WEAK WAA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REESTABLISHING THE SINGLE DIGITS
HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND. ONLY POP CHANCE REMAINS MINOR...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK WAA FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
PRETTY WEAK WINDS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO TURN
EAST-SE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE KDVL REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO
IMPROVE THE VSBYS DUE TO FOG ACROSS THAT AREA SOME BUT WILL HAVE TO
SEE. CAN EXPECT THE EAST-SE WIND SWITCH IN OTHER AREAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE. PRETTY MUCH LEFT CEILINGS ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE AT
RIGHT NOW UNTIL THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN. BEGIN TO BRING IN
THE LOWEST VSBYS FROM SNOW AROUND 12Z AT KFAR/KGFK AND A FEW HOURS
LATER FOR KTVF/KBJI.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
ONCE AGAIN...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW THROUGH 00 UTC AS
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LEAD TO NO IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INCLUDING THE UPCOMING MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18 UTC...AS
WEBCAM...SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 1430
UTC SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO PUSH FOG COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST WITH REPORTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY COMING IN THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING IN THE WEST WITH SOME
OBS COMING IN AT ONE-QUARTER MILE. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
A PLETHORA OF HEADLINES DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR THE
NEAR TERM...NOW THROUGH 15Z MONDAY...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VARIETY OF VISIBILITIES OF AT/NEAR OR BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE. LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST SHOWS CLOUDS LIFTING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION THIS AFTERNOON...FROM TROTTERS TO NEAR DICKINSON
AND HETTINGER. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE...EXPECT STRATUS TO
CONTINUE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINNING TO SHIFT THE RIDGE AND
FLATTEN IT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
FLATTER FLOW AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MODEL SUITE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...SHIFTING EAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONDAY NIGHT. DECENT OMEGA/LIFT IN THE 850-300MB LAYER FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO PUNCH INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z AND PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARD 15Z-18Z TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE LIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CULMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE OVERALL THEME
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN VERY MUCH CONSISTENT.
THUS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE HEADLINES BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS HEADLINED
IN/AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY AND/OR CATEGORICAL.
TIMING AND AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST APPEAR BRIEF AND LIGHT. WILL
LET FUTURE SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS FOR ANY CHANGES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TOWARDS THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING...AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEING
MINIMAL.
COLD...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS FRIGID
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING CALMING WINDS AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS MAY PUSH 20 BELOW FOR LOW TEMPS.
WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER
TEMPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN COME DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD KISN/KDIK/KBIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER KMOT AND LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
AT KJMS MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ019>022-034>036-046-047-050.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ001-009-010-017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ002-003-011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS STORMS ENERGY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER A CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF PA...SPREADING THROUGH
THE LOWER SUSQ AND CENTRAL PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. WARM AIR
REMAINS OVER THE LAURELS AND COLD AIR IS HOLDING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST HRRR AND
SHORT RANGE MODELS...AND SFC TEMPERATURES...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. IF THE TEMPERATURES DROP FASTER IN THE
NORTH...IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. EXPECT
THIS TO OCCUR 22Z TO 02Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FADE THIS EVENING THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP ALOFT...LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAINS PROBABLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND CUTS OFF ALTOGETHER LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF PENNSYLVANIA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
COOL...WHICH MAKES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH LESS
LIKELY. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
AS THE WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...COLD DRY AIR
SHOULD DOMINATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH FAIR WEATHER AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SLIDES ESE ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AND NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND A DECK OF MAINLY MID- LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. SFC TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW TO
SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL /WITH TEMPS IN THE 925-850 MB ALSO CLOSE
TO NORMAL/.
BIG CHANGES OCCUR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND AN INITIAL ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WILL PLOW SE ACROSS THE STATE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
/NW/ AND THURSDAY MORNING /SERN ZONES/. PAINTED LIKELY POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS AS LIMITED LAKE
MOISTURE IS FED INTO THE VERY COLD AIR AND LIFTED ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES. POPS MAY EASILY BE UNDERDONE...AND THERE COULD BE
AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS TO BETWEEN 7-9 KFT AGL.
EXPECT STEADILY FALLING TEMPS ALL DAY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
FALLING WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN WELL
BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY INTO AT LEAST THE WIND CHILLY ADVISORY RANGE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS COULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA OF -25F.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WINTER SEASON
SO FAR WITH ANOMALOUSLY GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS /-20 TO -22C/
RIGHT OVER THE ALLEGHENIES/. HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY FROM JUST THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20F BELOW
NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LESS WIND AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE ACROSS PENN. TEMPS REBOUND BY ABOUT 7-10
DEG F FROM FRIDAY/S HIGHS...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STRONG
CLIPPER DIGGING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GLAKES REGION.
THE AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE COULD BE EVEN A FEW DEG C COLDER WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE MID -20S OVER THE CWA. A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.
SATURDAY COULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY /BUT STARTING OUT AT COLDER LEVELS/. IT/S A
LONG WAY OFF...BUT BASED ON EC ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS AND THE 12Z
GEFS...SUNDAY COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY WE/LL SEE UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT WINTER. OUR CURRENT... GRIDDED FCST TEMPS ARE AT THE HIGHER
END OF MOST SOLUTIONS...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MID TEENS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
A GRADUAL WARMUP OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK /BUT TEMPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE SEVERAL DEG F OR MORE BELOW NORMAL/.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
THU NGT-FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ028-
036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/CERU
NEAR TERM...CERU
SHORT TERM...CERU
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS STORMS ENERGY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER A CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF PA...SPREADING THROUGH
THE LOWER SUSQ AND CENTRAL PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. WARM AIR
REMAINS OVER THE LAURELS AND COLD AIR IS HOLDING OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST HRRR AND
SHORT RANGE MODELS...AND SFC TEMPERATURES...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. IF THE TEMPERATURES DROP FASTER IN THE
NORTH...IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. EXPECT
THIS TO OCCUR 22Z TO 02Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FADE THIS EVENING THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP ALOFT...LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAINS PROBABLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND CUTS OFF ALTOGETHER LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF PENNSYLVANIA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
COOL...WHICH MAKES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH LESS
LIKELY. HOWEVER HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
AS THE WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...COLD DRY AIR
SHOULD DOMINATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A
CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
DIVERGENT...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD
COUPLE WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO BRING LIGHT SNOWFALLS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY AS ITS CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL
TREK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE -16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO AROUND ZERO IN THE
NW MTNS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND
CHILLS TO BE A CONCERN. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE THE REGION IS
IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE LATE
WORK WEEK SYSTEM....TRAVERSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THAT SYSTEM SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
STORM...THOUGH IT SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO CENTRAL PA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN TIMING...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD BELOW IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS
LOW CIGS CONTINUE DUE TO THE LOW STRATOCU FROM THE SFC LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CIGS...AND LOW VSBYS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TOWARDS MORNING.
IPT...BEING FURTHEST TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE THE QUICKEST CLEARING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT IPT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE LOW CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 10 TO 15Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH VFR DOMINATING TOMORROW AS A WEAK HIGH BUILD IN.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
THU NGT-FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ028-
036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN LOW
STRATUS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO LIKELY AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. HAVE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 15Z. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS AREA...AND SUGGESTS VISIBILITIES SHOULD START IMPROVING BY MID
MORNING...WITH GREGORY COUNTY THE LAST TO IMPROVE. FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRETTY
DEEP...BUT A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM IS PROBABLY
HOLDING DRIZZLE AT BAY AT THIS POINT. WILL LEAVE A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING THOUGH...GIVEN THE DEEP SATURATION AND MODELS
HINTING IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL LIFT. AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS...CUT BACK HIGHS
TODAY AS NOT THINKING WE WARM MUCH. SO LOOKING AT MAINLY UPPER 20S
EAST TO 30S WEST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON A SOLUTION SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH THAN THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE
BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHEST QPF STAYING NORTH. STILL SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF LIFT MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL
GREATLY CUT INTO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THROUGH 12Z GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF...GREATEST IN THE NORTH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. THE NORTHERN SOLUTION ALSO MEANS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXING IN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL LIFT BECOMES QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE LIFT COLLOCATED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATION FROM 0 TO 1 KM. THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO EVEN IF A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE
PRECIPITATION STAYS TO OUR NORTH...STILL MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH UNTREATED SURFACES BECOMING
ICY. SOUTHERN EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN...AND SINCE MOST OF THE ISSUES
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE NEW GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
ALL 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES THE ECMWF AND GEM. AT THIS TIME...OUR
FORECAST AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER DIV Q FORCING...AND
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALSO. ALL OF
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A LARGE QPF EVENT ON TUESDAY. STILL...HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING WITH A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING...WITH THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRY MID LEVELS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...AT LEAST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IN THE MORNING. BUT FOR NOW...WENT THE MEASURABLE POPS ROUTE.
IN ADDITION WITH A WARM LAYER WELL ABOVE FREEZING FROM 850-
750MB...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT COMING IN TUESDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT WARMER...WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...AND 50S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES. THIS SHOULD MELT ANY
ICE WHICH FALLS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAMATICALLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES
AND PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE FROM 925MB-
850MB...DECIDED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL FLURRIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
TOO THIN TO SUPPORT FLURRIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
TO MID 20S SOUTH...AND WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW ZERO IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
ON THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. BUT SO FAR
THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION YET IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN.
STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR COMING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING FOR FRIDAY A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...BECAUSE IF THE FRONT
WOULD HAPPEN TO SPEED UP JUST 3 TO 6 HOURS...OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY COULD BE A FULL TEN DEGREES COLDER. BUT RIGHT NOW MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT DAY ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY... HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CHILLY BUT PROBABLY NOT BRUTALLY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS
LIKELY WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO TONIGHT...FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
LIFR AND LOW END MVFR. BY LATE TONIGHT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90. LEFT OUT MENTION IN KSUX WHERE CHANCES ARE
LOWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BLUSTERY
OVERNIGHT...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-
057>059-063>065-068-069.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1134 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPULSES UPSTREAM WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CSV AREA. SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFT
06Z. NVA WILL WIN OUT BY 12Z WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THEREAFTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/
DISCUSSION UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH THE PLATEAU AROUND 18Z. WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME
WEAK PVA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND THAT WILL BE IN PLAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE HRRR IS
BACKING OFF ON THE PRECIP ONCE WE GET PAST 18Z THIS EVENING...WILL
ELECT TO KEEP THE WEATHER GRIDS AS IS. FURTHERMORE...LOW LEVEL
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CAA AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING IN
PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY. IN FACT...CAA AT THE
850 MB LEVEL WILL REALLY KICK IN AFT 18Z. WILL THEREFORE RUN THE
SERP TOOL AND START CUTTING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/
AVIATION...
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
ALL THREE SITES SEEING MVFR CIGS WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT CSV. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE FRONT PASSES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1031 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.DISCUSSION UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH THE PLATEAU AROUND 18Z. WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME
WEAK PVA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND THAT WILL BE IN PLAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE HRRR IS
BACKING OFF ON THE PRECIP ONCE WE GET PAST 18Z THIS EVENING...WILL
ELECT TO KEEP THE WEATHER GRIDS AS IS. FURTHERMORE...LOW LEVEL
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CAA AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING IN
PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY. IN FACT...CAA AT THE
850 MB LEVEL WILL REALLY KICK IN AFT 18Z. WILL THEREFORE RUN THE
SERP TOOL AND START CUTTING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015/
AVIATION...
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
ALL THREE SITES SEEING MVFR CIGS WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT CSV. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE FRONT PASSES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1121 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS
1. CAN CLOUDS CLEAR TODAY...AND WHERE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST...RIDGING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA...AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN
MN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS PRODUCING JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THOSE CLOUDS
WERE OVER TOP OF AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK...STRETCHING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF MN...IA AND A LOT OF WI. HOWEVER...CLEARING WAS
EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WI MARCHING SOUTHWESTWARD...RESULTING FROM
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO. THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...DESPITE A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE.
925MB TEMPS RANGED FROM -7 TO -11C PER RAP ANALYSIS.
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY QUIET. UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND GET PUSHED EASTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST BREAKING APART AND MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
12Z TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THE MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE
CURRENT STRATUS DECK AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. LOOKING AT THE 925-
850MB WIND FLOW...TO SEE IF THAT CLEARING IN NORTHEAST WI CAN MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THAT FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BACK
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL HAVE DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP
MIX SOME...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WOULD STAND TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SCATTER/CLEAR OUT. FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEST...IT COULD EASILY STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD TRENDS AND 925MB TEMPS ONLY
FORECAST TO WARM MAYBE 1C TODAY...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB. MAYBE WE GET A 5 DEGREE RISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST
TOWARDS CENTRAL WI WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WHERE IT
CLEARS OUT. OTHERWISE MORE TEENS TO LOW 20S SEEMS REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
2. WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
4. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH YET A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. DPVA
FROM BOTH TROUGHS COMBINED WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FIRST ONE...WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE WITH FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF I-90
AND GIVEN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE 2 SHORTWAVES...MOST PROBABLE
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. TRIED TO
CONVEY THIS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. NORTH OF I-90 CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR SNOW WITH
NO ISSUES OF A WARM LAYER OR LOSING ICE IN THE CLOUD. SOUTH OF I-90
BOTH OF THOSE ISSUES EXIST...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-90. THUS...THE AMOUNT OF ANY SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. REGARDING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...GIVEN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UP HIGH AND
THIN...ANTICIPATING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AROUND 10 TO 1. WITH GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.2-0.3 INCH RANGE
WHERE SNOW IS THE MAIN P-TYPE...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR IN TAYLOR COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF CONFIDENCE GROWS FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
COMING OFF THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA...PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THE
TROUGH BECAUSE OF THE MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED AWAY BY THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE TROUGH BRINGS IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR. NORTHWEST 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING THE
ASSOCIATED TEMPS TO PLUMMET FROM -8 TO -12C AT 18Z WED TO -20 TO
-25C AT 12Z THU. THOSE 12Z THU READINGS ARE COLDER THAN BEFORE
AND THUS HAVE HAD TO LOWER LOWS A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOWS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS ARE MAKING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOK MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING
TO 850- 900MB...30 KT GUSTS SEEM EASILY POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WILL
CAUSE ANY SNOW FROM TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
BLOW AROUND. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE
FORECAST.
THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY SO LOWERED
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...BRIEF UPPER RIDGING THEN COMES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO BRING IN
WARMER AIR. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -7 TO -12C BY 00Z SAT ACCORDING TO
THE 09.00Z EC/GFS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCOMPANY THIS WARMER AIR
FOR FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST THEN LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY...
CAUSED BY A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN JUST NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA...A GREAT SOURCE REGION FOR VERY
COLD AIR. 850MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FALL TO -2 TO
-2.5 ON SATURDAY PER THE 09.00Z EC/GFS...AND AS SUCH THE MEX
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF MAX T GUIDANCE ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO A STRONG SURGE OF
WIND SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH MORE WIND CHILL ISSUES. FOR NOW
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS WEAKER ON
WINDS AND WARMER ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE POTENT TROUGH DIGS AND HEADS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015
EXTENSIVE FIELD OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW EROSION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL //BASES AOA 10KFT// CLOUD AFTER 09Z AHEAD OF
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT AT KRST AROUND
15Z AND AT KLSE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD/17Z-ISH. APPEARS
VSBY AT KRST WILL DETERIORATE INTO IFR CATEGORY WITH THE ONSET OF
THE SNOW WHILE KLSE MAINTAINS VFR IN THE 17-18Z TIME FRAME.
APPEARS IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT KRST THROUGH THE REST OF
TUESDAY WITH SOME FZDZ POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KLSE
APPEARS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH FZDZ ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LET EVENING FORECASTER HONE IN ON DETAILS
WITH THE 10.00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS