Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/08/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
439 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE CLIPPER
WILL STALL OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG IT FOCUSING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MAY BRING A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 439 PM EST...A CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC TO NRN MAINE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN AND NRN NY
TOWARDS DAY BREAK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS FRAGMENTED AND DIFFUSE.
UPSTREAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOWERING INVERSION TO 4-5 KFT
AGL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSE BAND FORMATION INTO THE WRN DACKS.
OUR FCST FOLLOWS THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR CLOSELY FOR ROUGHLY
1-4" BY THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS...EXPECT ONLY A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
H850 TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL IN THE -10C TO -16C
RANGE. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL
START ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN
NY...POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR
INTO CENTRL NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY
THE AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN
FROM JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.
OUR FCST REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL
FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES
AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE NAM WAS
LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF A
WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST FOR 9 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POTENTIALLY IS FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT MORE LOCATIONS MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO ADDING THESE LOCATIONS /CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST/ TO WATCH JUST YET. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
5TH TO 7TH PERIOD WATCH...AND THEY CAN BE RISKY. ANOTHER PERUSAL
OF 12-HRS OF ADDITIONAL NWP GUIDANCE WAS DEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO EXPAND THE WATCH.
NOW...FOR STARTERS...THE LATEST NAM AND SREFS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS...AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF. THE
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GFS/ECMWF. WE FOLLOWED THE NERFC
AND WPC QPF FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN THE FCST.
OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SOME OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT COULD EVEN HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET SINCE THE CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY /BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/...SO PTYPE LOOKS TO BE AN
ISSUE. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH AND A DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FCST
AREA...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY NIGHTFALL...AND 1-4" TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE
HERE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING COUPLED WITH
THE VORTICTY ADVECTION. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/QG OMEGA WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE FGEN PROFILES INDICATE SOME BANDS OF
SNOW MAY FORM...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES ACROSS SE PA AND THE
DELMARVA REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE FORMS AND
WERE IT TRACKS FROM THERE. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS FAVOR
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFAL FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED! MORE
DISCUSSION ON THIS STORM IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS STILL WILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY...LOWERING TO LIKELY POPS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IN ALL AREAS. THE NAM
WAS PRODUCING SOME MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IT SEEMED TO
BE AN OUTLIER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 5 ABOVE TO THE TEENS.
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO
10 ABOVE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
(AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER ABOUT 14Z ON
SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT
8 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE. DURING THE
EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS OR LESS...THEN PICK UP TO
5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
115 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM EST...CLIPPER AND SHORT-WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN
STREAM OVER NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. SOME UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE HUDSON
RIVER AND CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT- WAVE. SOME CLOUD TRENDS WERE RETOOLED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE
BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL
FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS
TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND
COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND
DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO
OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE
TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A
1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE
BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND
SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY
PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON
NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON
NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE
EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY
BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE
COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION.
TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.
TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AFTER ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT
8 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE. DURING THE
EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS OR LESS...THEN PICK UP TO
5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHORT WAVE TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY EXIT
THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS.
THE WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE
LOWER POP VALUES TODAY.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE
BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL
FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS
TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND
COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND
DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO
OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE
TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A
1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE
BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND
SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY
PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON
NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON
NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE
EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY
BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE
COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION.
TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.
TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AFTER ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT
8 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE. DURING THE
EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS OR LESS...THEN PICK UP TO
5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
945 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHORT WAVE TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY EXIT
THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS.
THE WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE
LOWER POP VALUES TODAY.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE
BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL
FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS
TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND
COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND
DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO
OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE
TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A
1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE
BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND
SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY
PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON
NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON
NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE
EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY
BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE
COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION.
TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.
TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ARE GENERALLY BKN AROUND 4-5
KFT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL START OFF CALM...THEY LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT
THE W-SW AT 5-10 KTS BY LATER THIS MORNING.
EVEN LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT AROUND 3-4 KFT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...BUT BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
SITES. WHILE THE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE CIGS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
REMAIN VFR...SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KPSF. IT WILL BE CLOSE
THOUGH...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KALB...KGFL...AND KPOU. WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE...THE CIGS MAY START TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AT
KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND REMAIN AT AROUND 5-10 KTS INTO
TONIGHT. ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THOUGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS
MORE BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
620 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY CHILLY START TO THIS FRIDAY AS ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR
SERVICE AREA ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THAT WITH A
LIGHT WIND RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES COLDER.
CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN POSTED AT THIS TIME.
ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR-MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH AN NOTICABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. PER
THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR...THIS WAVE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT
ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE
LOWER POP VALUES TODAY.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE
BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL
FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS
TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND
COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND
DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO
OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE
TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A
1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE
BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND
SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY
PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON
NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON
NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE
EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY
BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE
COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION.
TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.
TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ARE GENERALLY BKN AROUND 4-5
KFT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL START OFF CALM...THEY LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT
THE W-SW AT 5-10 KTS BY LATER THIS MORNING.
EVEN LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT AROUND 3-4 KFT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...BUT BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
SITES. WHILE THE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE CIGS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
REMAIN VFR...SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KPSF. IT WILL BE CLOSE
THOUGH...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KALB...KGFL...AND KPOU. WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE...THE CIGS MAY START TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AT
KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND REMAIN AT AROUND 5-10 KTS INTO
TONIGHT. ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THOUGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS
MORE BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082-084.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
352 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY CHILLY START TO THIS FRIDAY AS ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR
SERVICE AREA ARE BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THAT WITH A LIGHT WIND
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. CURRENT WIND
CHILL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN POSTED AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR-MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH AN NOTICABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND SOME LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. PER
THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR...THIS WAVE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
BUT ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE THE LOWER POP VALUES TODAY.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE
BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL
FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS
TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND
COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND
DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO
OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE
TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A
1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT
INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE
BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND
SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY
PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON
NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON
NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE
EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY
BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE
COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION.
TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.
TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA OVER ONTARIO.
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES WITH UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
WHILE MOST THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE
BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AT 5-10 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOME LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT AROUND 3-4 KFT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...BUT BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES. WHILE THE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE CIGS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
REMAIN VFR...SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KPSF. IT WILL BE CLOSE
THOUGH...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KALB...KGFL...AND KPOU. WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE...THE CIGS MAY START TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AT
KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND REMAIN AT AROUND 5-10 KTS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082-084.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT WELL BEHIND THE LEAD IMPULSE THAT
BROUGHT THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ON THURSDAY. A RATHER STRONG SECONDARY
IMPULSE CAN BE SEEN PASSING OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SPREADING OFFSHORE IN ITS
WAKE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND...AND HENCE...DESPITE ASSOCIATED GOOD QG FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THERE JUST IS NOT THE INGREDIENTS TO
PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL...OR EVEN CLOUDS FOR THAT MATTER. THE 00Z KTBW
SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICIENCY
WELL...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ABOVE
800MB. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS IMPULSE WILL ONLY SERVE TO DRIVE DOWN
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL FRONT THROUGH THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL CAA ALOFT. SO WITH THE VERY DRY COLUMN...WE
ARE LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND ONCE IT RISES...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FINDS ITSELF SOUTH OF A LARGE
AREA OF 1030MB CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. THE LOCAL GRADIENT IS SUPPLYING A NORTH/NE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WITH WILL REMAIN STEADY TODAY WHILE THE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN OUR DIRECTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
THURSDAY. BY SUNRISE WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...AND
DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN TERMS OF ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SECONDARY BUT GENERALLY HARMLESS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST THIS
MORNING LEAVING THE FL PENINSULA WITH A REGION OF LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. NO SYNOPTIC MECHANISMS FOR LIFT AND LITTLE
COLUMN MOISTURE MEAN NO RAIN...AND THE GRIDS WILL CARRY 0% CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY THAT THE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE FOR
SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONCE DIURNAL MIXING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED DURING THE LATER MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WHERE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. THE GUSTY NATURE OF THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TOWARD SUNSET AS DIURNAL MIXING
SHUTS DOWN. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 60S AROUND
LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
FINALLY LOWER 70S FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES TO START OUT
THE DAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND SCT SHALLOW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN.
THE MOISTURE UNDER 850MB LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE SCT CUMULUS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES SETTLING SOUTHWARD REACHING SOUTHERN
GA/AL BY DAWN. WITH THE AXIS GETTING SO CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...DO EXPECT SHELTERED LOCATIONS UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY TO BE
ABLE TO DECOUPLE LATE AT NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
30S...WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE INVERTED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FROST FORMATION AFTER 4 AM...AND
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS FOR LEVY COUNTY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ELSEWHERE NO FROST CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 40 TRAVELING SOUTH TO BROOKSVILLE...AND
THEN GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ONCE AGAIN...NORMALLY WARMER
SPOTS IN SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW IS OFF THE WATER.
SATURDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUED TO SETTLE SOUTH AND TAKES UP RESIDENCY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST WILL SHOW
A VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET DAY IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER THE
COOL START TO THE MORNING. GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND PLENTY OF SUN
WILL ALLOW A DECENT DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH...TO AROUND 70 OVER
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND INTO THE 70S FURTHER SOUTH. THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MEAN A WEAKER GRADIENT AND A LESS
GUSTY NATURE TO THE NE/E LOW LEVEL WINDS.
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY UP ANOTHER COUPLE
OF DEGREES. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY EVERYONE...AND ENJOY THE FAVORABLE
OUTDOOR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
SUN AND MON: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SLIDES
OUT OVER THE U.S. PLAINS...WITH A GENERALLY DRY STABLE COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW TRAILING A COLD FRONT...
SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPENS
WITH THE FRONT DROPPING IN ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND THE EAST
GULF. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY ACROSS FL AND THE GULF FROM
THE ATLANTIC SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS MON
AND MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
TUE-THU: THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN
FLATTENS OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN RESPONSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
TUE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS INTO THE GULF
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SOME ROBUST WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS...
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WED...THEN MOVES OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN RELAX AGAIN
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS PROVIDING
ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST OF THE MORNING AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT IN FAVOR OR
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. ANY BRIEF
SURGE OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE DRIER
AIR...MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND LEVY
COUNTY FOR AN HOUR OR 2 OF SUB 35 PERCENT VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON. OF BIGGER CONCERN TO ANY WILDFIRE
SPREAD WILL BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TOWARD
SUNSET. CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER ANY ZONES
TODAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LESS GUSTY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 49 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 72 52 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 68 48 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 68 49 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 66 42 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 52 70 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
953 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
942 PM CST
IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE LOW. THE 00 UTC SOUNDING OUT OF KDVN IS VERY DRY
ABOVE 900 MB. MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE
CONFINED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WISCONSIN.
THEREFORE...LOWER CLOUD COVER (OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT) DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR MASS TO
OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SAG BACK SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE FOR THE SURFACE LOW. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...IT APPEARS THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT RIGHT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG.
I HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
AS IT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR LIKELY.
* VISIBILITY EASES DOWNWARD TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB 1SM VSBY
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING OVER 10 KT BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO IOWA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY 12Z. DIMINISHING WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS WELL AS
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A DAY OF SNOW
MELT/SUBLIMATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR FIRST FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRATUS LOOKS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD FROM
WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SO THE LOWEST CONDITIONS OF NEAR OR TO LIFR LOOK TO BASICALLY BE
SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH THEY COULD EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN
STRATUS THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE TIME OF ANY DRIZZLE.
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BUT STILL AMPLE LOW CLOUD COVER. AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT TYPE WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO BE SNOW AFTER DARK. THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO ORD...MDW...AND
GYY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN EVENTUALLY NORTH BY MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH THE DIRECTION EXPECTED TO BE
JUST EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN IFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING. LOW-MEDIUM IN REACHING
LIFR. LOW-MEDIUM IN START TIME AND DURATION.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN IFR VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING AND DURATION OF FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM ON TIMING AT 18Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT HIGH THAT IF ANY OCCURS
PRIOR TO 21Z SUNDAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND LIQUID.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...MVFR AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. NORTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR DURING THE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW
OR SLEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
912 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR LIKELY.
* VISIBILITY EASES DOWNWARD TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB 1SM VSBY
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING OVER 10 KT BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO IOWA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY 12Z. DIMINISHING WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS WELL AS
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A DAY OF SNOW
MELT/SUBLIMATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR FIRST FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRATUS LOOKS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD FROM
WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SO THE LOWEST CONDITIONS OF NEAR OR TO LIFR LOOK TO BASICALLY BE
SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH THEY COULD EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN
STRATUS THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE TIME OF ANY DRIZZLE.
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BUT STILL AMPLE LOW CLOUD COVER. AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT TYPE WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO BE SNOW AFTER DARK. THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO ORD...MDW...AND
GYY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN EVENTUALLY NORTH BY MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH THE DIRECTION EXPECTED TO BE
JUST EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN IFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING. LOW-MEDIUM IN REACHING
LIFR. LOW-MEDIUM IN START TIME AND DURATION.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN IFR VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING AND DURATION OF FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM ON TIMING AT 18Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT HIGH THAT IF ANY OCCURS
PRIOR TO 21Z SUNDAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND LIQUID.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...MVFR AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. NORTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR DURING THE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW
OR SLEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
548 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR LIKELY.
* VISIBILITY EASES DOWNWARD TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB 1SM VSBY
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING OVER 10 KT BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO IOWA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY 12Z. DIMINISHING WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS WELL AS
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A DAY OF SNOW
MELT/SUBLIMATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR FIRST FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...STRATUS LOOKS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD FROM
WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SO THE LOWEST CONDITIONS OF NEAR OR TO LIFR LOOK TO BASICALLY BE
SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH THEY COULD EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN
STRATUS THERE COULD BE PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE TIME OF ANY DRIZZLE.
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BUT STILL AMPLE LOW CLOUD COVER. AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT TYPE WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO BE SNOW AFTER DARK. THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO ORD...MDW...AND
GYY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN EVENTUALLY NORTH BY MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH THE DIRECTION EXPECTED TO BE
JUST EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH IN IFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING. MEDIUM-HIGH IN REACHING LIFR.
LOW-MEDIUM IN START TIME AND DURATION.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN IFR VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING AND DURATION OF FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM ON TIMING AT 18Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT HIGH THAT IF ANY OCCURS
PRIOR TO 21Z SUNDAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND LIQUID.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED
00Z...
MONDAY...MVFR AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. NORTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR DURING THE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW
OR SLEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG/CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
RATZER/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. WHILE FRONT IS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS ACROSS MN/WI...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS WILL PERSIST.
CONCERNS INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH OVER TIME...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES. VARIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATE IFR/VIFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST OF TERMINALS AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER OUR DEEP SNOW COVER. UNTIL THEN...SUSPECT
THAT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY FOG WILL AFFECT TERMINALS TONIGHT.
HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT RFD MID-LATE MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CHICAGO. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON DETAILS
HOWEVER AS MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH SATURATING THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-LOW IN MVFR VSBY IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...LOW IN IFR
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR. WINTRY MIX AND MVFR TRENDING IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE.
MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW EARLY.
NORTHWEST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NONE IN SHORT TERM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG/CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. WHILE FRONT IS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS ACROSS MN/WI...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS WILL PERSIST.
CONCERNS INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH OVER TIME...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES. VARIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATE IFR/VIFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST OF TERMINALS AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER OUR DEEP SNOW COVER. UNTIL THEN...SUSPECT
THAT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY FOG WILL AFFECT TERMINALS TONIGHT.
HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT RFD MID-LATE MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CHICAGO. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON DETAILS
HOWEVER AS MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH SATURATING THE LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-LOW IN MVFR VSBY IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...LOW IN IFR
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO LATE SATURDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR. WINTRY MIX AND MVFR TRENDING IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE.
MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW EARLY.
NORTHWEST WINDS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
304 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO
WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED
IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR
BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED
NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO
RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/.
WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN
GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES
HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES
WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS
CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM
CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
319 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS
THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE
INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO
THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN.
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS
HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT
HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS
ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS
EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A
CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP
INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION
CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING
LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS
SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN
FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS
VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF
THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT
SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON
THE TAIL END.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT
THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER
WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM
TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* POSSIBLE LLVL WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500FT AGL BETWEEN 40-45KT THRU
11Z.
* NO OTHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY TO SLIGTHLY SOUTHWESTERLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 8-10KFT AGL...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF CLOUDS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT
AGL. KLOT VWP INDICATES SOME TARGETS AT 2KFT OF 40KT...HOWEVER
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED OR UNTIL AROUND
9-10Z. SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED WIND SHEAR UNTIL THAT TIME.
VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OVER THE TAF
SITES. WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME MELTING SNOW PACK.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HEIGHT/SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN DURATION OF LLWS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST LATE.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE.
MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
134 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS
TO THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ABLE TO
EXPIRE...AND NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-25KT. EXPECT GUSTS TO BE STEADILY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE HEADLINE TO EXPIRE AS WELL.
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH AN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE WINDS CONTINUE TO
TURN SOUTH THEN EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
DEVELOPING. FURTHER SOUTH FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SUN
MORNING...WINDS THEN TURN NORTH AND INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT YET AGAIN. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST GUSTS SUN WILL BE AROUND
20-25KT...WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST SUN NGT INTO MON. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUE NGT/WED...WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED
EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
135 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO
WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED
IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR
BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED
NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO
RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/.
WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN
GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES
HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES
WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS
CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM
CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
319 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS
THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE
INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO
THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN.
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS
HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT
HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS
ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS
EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A
CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP
INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION
CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING
LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS
SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN
FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS
VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF
THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT
SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON
THE TAIL END.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT
THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER
WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM
TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE LLVL WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500FT AGL BETWEEN 40-45KT THRU
09Z.
* NO OTHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY TO SLIGTHLY SOUTHWESTERLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 8-10KFT AGL...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF CLOUDS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT
AGL. KLOT VWP INDICATES SOME TARGETS AT 2KFT OF 40KT...HOWEVER
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED OR UNTIL AROUND
9-10Z. SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED WIND SHEAR UNTIL THAT TIME.
VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OVER THE TAF
SITES. WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME MELTING SNOW PACK.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HEIGHT/SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN DURATION OF LLWS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST LATE.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE.
MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
134 AM CST
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS
TO THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ABLE TO
EXPIRE...AND NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-25KT. EXPECT GUSTS TO BE STEADILY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE HEADLINE TO EXPIRE AS WELL.
THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH AN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE WINDS CONTINUE TO
TURN SOUTH THEN EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
DEVELOPING. FURTHER SOUTH FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SUN
MORNING...WINDS THEN TURN NORTH AND INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT YET AGAIN. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST GUSTS SUN WILL BE AROUND
20-25KT...WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST SUN NGT INTO MON. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUE NGT/WED...WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED
EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1151 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
.UPDATE...
WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO
WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED
IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR
BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED
NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO
RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/.
WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN
GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO
HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES
HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES
WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS
CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM
CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
319 PM CST
THROUGH SATURDAY...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS
THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH
CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE
INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO
THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN.
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS
HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT
HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS
ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS
EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A
CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP
INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION
CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING
LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS
SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
319 PM CST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN
FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS
VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF
THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT
SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON
THE TAIL END.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT
THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER
WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM
TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE LLVL WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500FT AGL BETWEEN 40-45KT THRU
09Z.
* NO OTHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY TO SLIGTHLY SOUTHWESTERLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 8-10KFT AGL...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF CLOUDS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT
AGL. KLOT VWP INDICATES SOME TARGETS AT 2KFT OF 40KT...HOWEVER
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED OR UNTIL AROUND
9-10Z. SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED WIND SHEAR UNTIL THAT TIME.
VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OVER THE TAF
SITES. WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME MELTING SNOW PACK.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HEIGHT/SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN DURATION OF LLWS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST LATE.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE.
MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CST
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO
FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WERE HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAIRLY
QUICK RAMP-UP IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A PERIOD
OF SOUTHWEST GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY...THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN JUST AS QUICKLY BY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP
OFF TO AROUND 15 KT OR SO BY SUNRISE. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK FRIDAY AS THE TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...
THEY WILL SWING AROUND IN DIRECTION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING PROPEL THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE...THE FRONT
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ONCE THIS LOW PASSES EAST LATE SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WHILE WEAKENING AS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LINGER
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1256 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED TO REFLECT FASTER ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUDS NOW
COVERING MOST OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS.
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB IN MANY AREAS WITH NEARLY
STEADY IF NOT SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS HIGH SINKS
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE
DROP SO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE LOOKING WARM AND JUST A FEW DEGREES UNDER AFTERNOON TEMPS.
ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. HIRES RUC AND HRRR SURFACE
TEMPS EVEN COLDER WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z WITH
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FRESH DEEP
SNOWPACK AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY BUT OFTEN THESE HIRES MODELS CAN
BE ON THE EXTREME SIDE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH
REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE TEENS LATER TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO STILL LIMIT REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SOMEWHAT.
MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LIKELY
INTO THE 20S. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT LOWER
30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
FLATTER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH POLAR JET AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPS AND OVERALL FEEL WILL
LIKELY TO BE PLAGUED BY LOW STRATUS (ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST) AS
WAA ALOFT AND SNOW MELT HELPS LOCK IN MOISTURE WITHIN SHALLOW
INVERSION. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN APPEAR LOW THROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
MORE FOCUSED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP NORTH OF THE
IWX CWA. HOWEVER...ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SHALLOW/MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT ICING FAR NE IN/FAR NW OH/LOWER MI INTO SUNDAY).
A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO FORCE A STRONGER FRONTAL
WAVE ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK
WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE (AGAIN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN
NORTH) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
NORTH TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA ENSUES
WITHIN PIVOTING DEFORMATION. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME
BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY POPS GIVEN LINGERING MODEL SPREAD AND
NORTHERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...COOLER/DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RENEWED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR CLOUD DECK HAS OVERSPREAD BOTH TAF SITES AND WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK
TO MOVE IN BEHIND AS A WARM FROM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW LLWS THRESHOLDS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY
RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR
MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE
HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED
REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70
DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE).
DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES
PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN
ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST
IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER...OR CLOSER TO NORMAL...
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHER THAN WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER PERSISTS BUT THE TRI-
STATE REGION WILL NOT BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS AS OBSERVED TODAY AND
FORECAST TOMORROW. A SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME MIXING. HOWEVER...A MEAGER BUMP IN
DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MINIMAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FROM BEING ATTAINED. THEREFORE...CURRENTLY DO NOT BELIEVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHED. SLIGHT WARMING IS
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT RETURNS. A WEAK
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORCING WARM AIR SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN. AS A RESULT...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CRASH ON
THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES C BEHIND THIS FRONT. MODEL RH FIELDS ALSO
INDICATE DENSE CLOUD COVER SO DO NOT FORESEE A GREAT AMOUNT OF
WARMING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN REACHES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CREST AND SPREADS
IN WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR EAST THIS
PRECIPITATION REACHES. AS WITH WEDNESDAY`S PRECIPITATION EVENT...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE IN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT EAST
COLORADO RECEIVES SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OCCURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND BEGINS ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LGT/VRB AROUND 23Z FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST NEAR 10KTS BY 02Z. AROUND 09Z WINDS VEER
TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS THEN NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 17Z. A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE
WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY
RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR
MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE
HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED
REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70
DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE).
DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES
PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN
ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST
IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON MONDAY...BOTH THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO CARRY BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE NW PACIFIC COASTAL AREA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH SETTLES OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE SE OFF
THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO
BE INITIALLY MOSTLY DRY COMING THRU AREA WITH ONLY STRONG RIDGING
BEHIND BOUNDARY GIVING ESE FLOW INTO NW ZONES AND THUS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC QPF. SHORTWAVE DOES WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEAVING CWA...BUT DOES TAP INTO MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HAVE PUT IN MENTION OF RW/SW MIX
BEFORE 06Z WED...AND AFTER 18Z WED BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH BEFORE CHANGEOVER WITH ARRIVAL OF CAA AND SURFACE RIDGING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT THURSDAY WITH
CHANCE FOR FROPA LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO COME THRU DRY DUE TO
RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...BLOCKING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FEED
INTO CWA. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN ALMOST 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND REBOUNDING FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT DRY
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LGT/VRB AROUND 23Z FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST NEAR 10KTS BY 02Z. AROUND 09Z WINDS VEER
TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS THEN NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 17Z. A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE
WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 6)...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
415 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY
RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR
MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE
HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED
REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70
DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE).
DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES
PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN
ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST
IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON MONDAY...BOTH THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO CARRY BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE NW PACIFIC COASTAL AREA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH SETTLES OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE SE OFF
THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO
BE INITIALLY MOSTLY DRY COMING THRU AREA WITH ONLY STRONG RIDGING
BEHIND BOUNDARY GIVING ESE FLOW INTO NW ZONES AND THUS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC QPF. SHORTWAVE DOES WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEAVING CWA...BUT DOES TAP INTO MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HAVE PUT IN MENTION OF RW/SW MIX
BEFORE 06Z WED...AND AFTER 18Z WED BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH BEFORE CHANGEOVER WITH ARRIVAL OF CAA AND SURFACE RIDGING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT THURSDAY WITH
CHANCE FOR FROPA LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO COME THRU DRY DUE TO
RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...BLOCKING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FEED
INTO CWA. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN ALMOST 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND REBOUNDING FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT DRY
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS (20-30 KFT AGL). WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
12KT WITH PREVAILING DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 6)...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
243 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY
RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR
MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE
HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED
REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70
DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE).
DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES
PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN
ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST
IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON MONDAY...BOTH THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO CARRY BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE NW PACIFIC COASTAL AREA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH SETTLES OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE SE OFF
THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO
BE INITIALLY MOSTLY DRY COMING THRU AREA WITH ONLY STRONG RIDGING
BEHIND BOUNDARY GIVING ESE FLOW INTO NW ZONES AND THUS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC QPF. SHORTWAVE DOES WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEAVING CWA...BUT DOES TAP INTO MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HAVE PUT IN MENTION OF RW/SW MIX
BEFORE 06Z WED...AND AFTER 18Z WED BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH BEFORE CHANGEOVER WITH ARRIVAL OF CAA AND SURFACE RIDGING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT THURSDAY WITH
CHANCE FOR FROPA LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO COME THRU DRY DUE TO
RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...BLOCKING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FEED
INTO CWA. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN ALMOST 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND REBOUNDING FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT DRY
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AS A RESULT OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 200-500 FT AGL
CONTINUES ACCORDING TO WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE. LLWS SHOULD
PERSIST TO AROUND 10-11Z WHEN THE JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST. CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE REGION CLEARS THIS MORNING WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 6)...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
650 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO DRAW WARMER AIR OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATES MADE THIS EVENING ARE VERY MINOR...AS FOR THE MOST PART
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A STEADY DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THUS...BASED
ON THE RECENT HRRR AND LAMP DATA...INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MAKE IT`S APPRAOCH ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE MODELS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT LEFT POPS THE
SAME BUT MADE WORDING AND QPF ADJUSTMENTS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUN AS MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL BE PRESENT. ATTM...HELD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS...BUT COULD VERY EASILY SEE THE STRONG WAA PUTTING US
CLOSER TO THE MAVS MARKS.
A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IS LEADING TO FZRA/IP BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES PRE-
DAWN MON. NOT FULLY BUYING INTO THE FZRA POTENTIAL...AS THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT DOESNT LOOK ALL THAT STOUT...BUT FEEL INCLUSION OF
SLEET IS PRUDENT. IN GENERAL...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND PACE OF THE TRANSITION TO MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIP EARLY MON
MORNING AS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO SIMILARLY SLOW PROGRESS
OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE AIR MASS LEADS THE MODELS TO HAVE DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. THUS...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY AS SHALLOW COLD AIR ARRIVES. RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TRANSITION THROUGH A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW DURING THE
DAY. BUT CONCURRENT WITH THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL WILL BE A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE H5 TROUGH. THUS...ALTHOUGH THE
AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SATURATION AND LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
LAYER WILL BE DECLINING RAPIDLY. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /WITH EXCEPTION OF THE RIDGES/.
THE COLD AIR MASS MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN SATURATED IN THE H9-H8
LAYER. MODEST LIFT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
OPPOSED TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE CHANCES WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUT FROZEN LAKES AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATION IN THE RIDGES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING...BUT MAY SHOW MODEST RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE MERIDIONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND RESULT IN DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS HEADING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FROM ZERO TO 10 DEGREES.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT THE COMBO OF WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 TO
-20 ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND ALONG THE RIDGES...WHICH WOULD
WARRANT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. MUCH COULD CHANGE WITH THIS BEING
DAYS OUT...AND THERE IS AN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GENERAL
IDEA OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UPPER...AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE UPPER OHIO TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR MAY THUS BE EXPECTED...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVIATION CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT. GIVEN HRRR...RAP...AND NAM DEPICTIONS...HAVE ADDED TO ALL
TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
DETERIORATION TO MVFR...AND EVENTUAL IFR IS FORECAST AFTER DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DIGS TOWARD THE REGION WITH
BROAD...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK ASCENT SUPPORTING CEILING DEVELOPMENT
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE GIVEN THE CURRENT NAM AND GFS
PROGNOSIS OF CAPPED LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND SPARSE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
34/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
706 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
Spring fever has gripped much of the area today with highs reaching
well into the 60s on this absolutely gorgeous Saturday in early
February. Unseasonably warm weather will continue tonight and
probably a good portion of Sunday before a cold front ends the party
and sends temperatures back to reality. Expecting low temperatures
tonight to be warmer than our average highs for this time of the
year. Would be surprised if Lambert drops much below 50 degrees,
which would be eight degrees warmer than the average high
temperature! The stratus is really having a tough time advecting
north from Arkansas thanks to the extremely shallow and low nature
of the moisture. Expect some cloud cover to develop but think it
takes its time tonight and takes the long way around the Ozarks up
the Mississippi River Valley before being shunted to the east. RAP
model and 4KM Local WRF also depict this scenario well.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
Cold front will pass through the area in normal fashion from
northwest to southeast tomorrow, with another very warm day in
store for locations along and south of I-70.
Colder air expected on Monday with clouds slow to clear throughout
the day. Pattern remains active though and warmer temperatures
already in the forecast by Tuesday ahead of the next storm system
that will move to our north.
Upper air pattern really amplifies heading toward the end of the
week with a dominant western ridge and eastern trof. This pattern
should result in colder conditions Thursday and Friday. Will have
to keep an eye on shortwaves flying down on northwest flow as they
could bring the area some chance of some flurries on Friday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
VFR fcst thru the prd. An upper level disturbance is fcst to pass
thru the region tomorrow with an assoc area of sfc low pressure.
The low is fcst to move from SD this evng to IN by Sun PM. This
will allow a cold front to drop thru the area tomorrow. Passage of
the bndry is expected to be dry with maybe a 10-15kft band of
clouds and a wind shift to mark its passage. Most guidance
indicates that there will be widespread MVFR stratus that will
affect a good portion of the area late tonight thru Sun mrng. Not
ready to believe that solution yet. Models tend to over fcst low
level moisture in these scenarios...plus the models already have
too much low level moisture compared to reality. One exception is
the RAP which appears to be doing a reasonable job in the near term
and keeps the higher low level moisture well SE of the area
terminals confining it to far SE MO and sthrn IL. Guidance that
indicates stratus by mrng advects it from TX/LA/AR overnight
rather than dvlpng it directly over the terminals, so prefer holding
off introducing MVFR CIGs in order to ensure they materialize.
Indications are that if stratus does dvlp...then it may linger for
a good portion of the day. Inherited SCT015 starting at 9Z for
both KCOU and the STL metro area terminals and decided to leave
that until a better determination of low cloud trends can be made.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR fcst with models hinting at MVFR CIGs mvng into the terminal
around 9Z. Not confident with this scenario so holding off
including MVFR CIGs attm. Otherwise...a dry cold front pushes thru
midday turning winds from S/SSW to W/WNW.
2%
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 326 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2015
Record highs... Sat. 2/7 Sun. 2/8
St. Louis 70/2009 70/1990
Columbia70/2009 74/1943
Quincy69/2009 69/1990
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
905 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ITS BEEN ALL ABOUT THE WIND THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG GUSTS AT
ROSCOE (60 MPH) AND JUST ABOVE RED LODGE (TIMBERCREST 64 MPH).
OTHER LOCATIONS ARE STILL WINDY SUCH AS FISHTAIL WITH OVER 50 MPH
GUSTS. I AM NOT RULING OUT A STRONG GUST GETTING DOWN INTO RED
LODGE YET THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY
10 PM AS DOWNWARD MOTION LETS UP A BIT. HAVE EDITED THE WIND GRIDS
TO REFLECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND THAN WHAT I INHERITED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
LOOKING AT WRF CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NEWEST RUN...THERE SEEMS TO
BE ANOTHER GOOD PUSH OF WIND INTO THE FOOTHILLS TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
BETTER THAN THIS EVENINGS. THERE IS ALSO A VERY FAVORABLE CRITICAL
LAYER INVOLVED. SO STRONG OR EVEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM A
MOUNTAIN WAVE ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY
OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS MORE DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN WITH STRONG FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC BRINGING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS
PACKAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN BILLINGS
WHERE A SOUTHERLY CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE HAS KEPT STRONGER WINDS
FROM MIXING DOWN AND THUS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AT 1PM. AS WITH
LAST NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE SOME WARMING THIS EVENING AS AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT MIXED TO A STRONGER AND MORE WESTERLY WIND SHOULD...ONCE
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG IN
THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE VICINITIES. CURRENTLY SEEING PERIODIC GUSTS
TO 58 MPH IN LIVINGSTON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A MOUNTAIN
WAVE TO DEVELOP EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS 70-80KT 700MB WINDS PUSH
THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS THAT NORMALLY SEE LITTLE WIND
INCLUDING RED LODGE AN SHERIDAN. INCREASED WINDS IN THESE
LOCATIONS TO GET SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE
FORECAST. LATEST RUC SOUNDING FOR SHERIDAN SHOWS A PLUG OF 50 TO
60KT WINDS AT 900 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE SHERIDANS ELEVATION. ITS
POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD PUSH DOWN INTO SHERIDAN (AS
WELL AS RED LODGE) BUT IT MAY ALSO HANG UP IN THE FOOTHILLS JUST
ABOVE THE CITY ELEVATION. THESE MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE NOTORIOUSLY
TOUGH TO PREDICT AND TEND TO HAVE A HIGH FALSE ALARM RATE.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT NOT GOING TO THE FULL
POTENTIAL THE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED. EVENING SHIFT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND ISSUE HIGHLITES IF NECESSARY.
THOSE LIVING IN THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS WIND
POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS ON THEIR PROPERTY JUST IN
CASE.
FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME STRONG
FOOTHILLS WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE SPREADING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH RECORD
TERRITORY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. YET ANOTHER WIND
PRODUCING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING
STRONG WINDS GOING LIVINGSTON TO NYE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON
AS WELL AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE LOCATIONS TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
COMPLICATE DYNAMICS THAT WOULD NORMALLY POINT TO THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON CORRIDOR.
THUS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WIND HIGHLITES FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL A
BIT CLOSER TO THE STRONG WINDS ARRIVING...BUT IF GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT WILL LIKELY NEED THEM.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE GENERATED
STRONG WINDS SETTLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND PUSHING WELL OUT
INTO THE PLAINS AS VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO WORK DOWN AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT FRONT JET DYNAMICS COMBINE TO ADD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD VERY CLOSELY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
SET THE TABLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...A
GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE MOUNTAINS (WEST FACING SLOPES) AND
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS WITH ADDITIONAL
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
IN SUMMARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO BE WIND AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM
SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ALONG
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. IF YOU LIVE NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS BE AWARE
OF THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE TROF OFF THE
PAC COAST AND COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM
SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH WOULD CAUSE
STRONGER MIXING AND WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW NO SUCH FEATURE ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS A
BIT ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT MIXING.
PAC TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ALLOWING FOR HEIGHT FALLS AND
A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. OUR WESTERN MTNS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW HERE
AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS.
THOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY WILLS SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS CANADIAN
SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN MT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TIMING OF THIS COOLING TREND...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ITS MAGNITUDE.
THE GFS SHOWS A COLD 1050+ MB HIGH SLIDING INTO ND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH
AND THUS NOT NEARLY AS COLD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY
LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TEMPS TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...SO MUST
STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS THAT OF COOLING SO
HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS DOWN SOME ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
EAST HALF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ACTUALLY SHOULD START
SEEING A WARMING TREND AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...NOT SEEING ANYTHING DYNAMIC BUT ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. SHOULD SEE DRYING
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS W OF KBIL TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI. WINDS GUSTS AT KLVM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 50 KT.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OVER
KMLS AND KSHR. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/060 044/062 038/058 035/054 037/050 026/040 027/046
00/N 01/N 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B
LVM 043/061 052/059 042/055 035/052 037/050 025/041 028/051
00/N 12/W 12/W 12/W 32/W 21/B 11/B
HDN 033/056 037/058 033/056 029/054 032/050 022/041 023/043
00/B 01/B 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B
MLS 030/053 038/056 034/054 030/050 031/044 019/036 017/039
00/B 02/W 21/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 01/B
4BQ 034/061 041/060 035/058 032/057 034/050 021/038 021/045
00/B 02/W 11/B 00/U 22/W 21/B 11/B
BHK 030/054 038/056 034/052 027/048 029/043 018/032 013/037
00/B 02/W 21/B 01/U 22/W 11/B 00/B
SHR 032/060 038/059 033/057 028/055 028/050 022/041 020/045
00/B 01/N 11/B 00/B 22/W 31/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
514 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY SUNDAY,
WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY. MORE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
MORNING...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG WARMING
TREND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MENTIONING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
INCOMING WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SIERRA EXPECTED TO KEEP LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH 10 PM, WITH RADAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA INCREASING AND KWMC REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. ALSO
LIGHTNING STRIKE NOTED SW OF RENO. WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, BUT HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR ELKO THIS EVENING.
TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 PM /
SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY SUNDAY,
WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY. MORE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
MORNING...CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG WARMING
TREND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE ELKO
AIRPORT ALREADY CHALKING UP YET ANOTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
(62 DEGREES). ALSO, THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT ELKO (46
DEGREES) WAS THE ALL-TIME WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR ELKO FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. MILD PACIFIC DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS GUSTING 40-45 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCALES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM JIGGS TO NEAR NEW
PASS SUMMIT IN LANDER COUNTY, JUST AS 12Z NAM PREDICTED. 18Z NAM
IS QUITE ROBUST WITH THIS NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION, FROM SE ELKO
COUNTY TO NEAR GABBS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENT NAM`S QPF IS
OVERDONE, BUT SINCE RADAR TRENDS MATCH NAM WELL, MENTIONED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 PM. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH 10 PM. MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS DRY AND CONTINUED MILD TONIGHT, REDUCED INHERITED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY AS DRY DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING CONTINUES. EXPECTING TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING YET AGAIN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY...REDUCED POP GRIDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE GREATLY. ANY LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN THROUGH 4 PM WILL BE CONFINED TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND
EVEN THAT LOOKS INSIGNIFICANT. S/SE WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
MORE RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FORECASTED
HIGH OF 62 DEGREES AT ELKO. THE RECORD TO BEAT AT THE ELKO AIRPORT
FOR FEBRUARY 8TH IS 61 SET IN 1963. THE WINTER THAT WASN`T
CONTINUES.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH AXIS CROSSES
THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHICH FINALLY ALLOWS LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. KEPT RAIN COVERAGE VERY LIMITED TO NIL THROUGH
10 PM SUNDAY, THEN INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT VALLEY RAIN ACROSS THE
NW 1/2 OF THE CWA 10 PM SUNDAY - 4 AM MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS VERY
HIGH (9000 FT) SO NO IMPACTS. MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVE LESS THAN
0.10 INCH OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY.
MONDAY...AREAS OF STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS TROUGH`S COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARRIVE. QPF WILL
BE LIMITED WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 BY MONDAY EVENING. WEAK
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE PASSING TROUGH WILL SUPPLY SOME MODEST
LIFT. SO, FOR THOSE MISSING SNOW, THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SCATTERED AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS WELL LESS THAN ONE INCH. ROADWAY
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, FOR LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS.
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE DEPARTS INTO UTAH, TAKING ANY PRECIP WITH IT.
REDUCED OR ELIMINATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST. NOTICEABLY
COOLER, WITH NW FLOW KEEPING SOME VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 40S...STILL
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. TURNER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A MILD AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA.
LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. JH
AVIATION...SOME CLOUDS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. JH
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
303 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING
STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING AN IDEAL
SETUP FOR STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA. STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. STRONG...UPVALLEY WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING IN ESMERALDA COUNTY...DYER...IN
PARTICULAR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AND HRRR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO MANY OF THE SAME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUT A
DAMPER ON THE WINDS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. I INCREASED POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
TONIGHT. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND INTO RED ROCK CANYON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE... MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS...WITH SHOWER CHANCES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTH WEST AND GREAT BASIN MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MIXING FOR ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND AID IN CUTTING OFF A LOW CIRCULATION FROM THE
MAIN JET AND THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. THIS RELATIVELY DRY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH UTAH OR NEVADA BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DRIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY SOME RARE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS LOW. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND SOUTHEAST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THAT SAID...MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS
THIS...WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO.
FOR THE MOMENT I HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AT MCCARRAN TO SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 KTS BY 05Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AT 25K CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOB FL050 IN THE OWENS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
SLOPES AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OWENS VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. A ROTOR CLOUD
IS ALREADY EVIDENT FORMING DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY AND SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND POINTS EAST INTO
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SAME LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR BLOWING DUST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CZYZYK
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
TWO MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING...THE CURRENT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. NOT MUCH GOING ON IN
THE CURRENT ADVISORY...BUT AN AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ADVISORY AREA SHORTLY. COULD
STILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WE HAVE BEEN
GETTING RAIN THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY MOST AREAS WERE QUITE WARM
TODAY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO FALL. THINK PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
CRITICAL VALUES.
THE EXCEPTION IS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. PERSISTENT BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS DICKEY AND LAMOURE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HERE WERE MUCH COOLER TODAY AND OAKES IS
CURRENTLY RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN WITH 32 DEGREES. WILL ADD THESE TWO
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR INDICATING AN ENHANCED AREA OF REFLECTIVITIES FROM
WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY SOUTHEAST THROUGH BEULAH TO BISMARCK.
LATEST WEATHER CAMERAS AND REPORTS INDICATE PRECIPITATION UNDER
THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES IS REACHING THE GROUND. ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS SO FAR IN THIS LEADING BAND AND TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
ARE ABOVE FREEZING. DID EXPAND CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FROM BISMARCK DOWN TOWARDS ASHLEY AND ELLENDALE EARLY
THIS EVENING. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE ELLENDALE AND ASHLEY AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. IF THE EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION REACHES THE
GROUND IN THESE AREAS WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
OR FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AS AMOUNTS WOULD BE MAINLY TRACE THIS EVENING
AND THEN BY LATE EVENING THEY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BASED
ON UTILIZING THE WET BULB FOR MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. UPDATED
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND UTILIZED THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS
FORECAST FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WHICH BETTER CAPTURED
THE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA FROM 03 UTC THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND
ECMWF...18 UTC NAM AND 18-20 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF
2120 UTC CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE A TRANSITION THROUGH A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA IS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH IS GREATEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR AND 18-20 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING WITH 21 UTC TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL TO LIMIT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
WILL ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
THE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM INVOLVES PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY SHOULD KEEP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING QUIET.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP AND
EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BRING WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING THIS
TIME SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE...AND MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE JAMES VALLEY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL.
LOOKING AT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS WHEN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN...AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY MAINLY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LATEST HRRR/NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. BROUGHT MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS TO KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AND
KEPT MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT AT KDIK.
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. KEPT A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AT KISN AND KBIS.
KDIK APPEARS TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN...WHILE PRECIPITATION
HAS A HARD TIME MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT AND
BY SUNDAY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ009-010-
017>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR INDICATING AN ENHANCED AREA OF REFLECTIVITIES FROM
WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY SOUTHEAST THROUGH BEULAH TO BISMARCK.
LATEST WEATHER CAMERAS AND REPORTS INDICATE PRECIPITATION UNDER
THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES IS REACHING THE GROUND. ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS SO FAR IN THIS LEADING BAND AND TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
ARE ABOVE FREEZING. DID EXPAND CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FROM BISMARCK DOWN TOWARDS ASHLEY AND ELLENDALE EARLY
THIS EVENING. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE ELLENDALE AND ASHLEY AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. IF THE EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION REACHES THE
GROUND IN THESE AREAS WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
OR FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AS AMOUNTS WOULD BE MAINLY TRACE THIS EVENING
AND THEN BY LATE EVENING THEY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BASED
ON UTILIZING THE WET BULB FOR MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. UPDATED
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND UTILIZED THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS
FORECAST FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WHICH BETTER CAPTURED
THE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA FROM 03 UTC THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND
ECMWF...18 UTC NAM AND 18-20 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF
2120 UTC CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE A TRANSITION THROUGH A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA IS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH IS GREATEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR AND 18-20 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING WITH 21 UTC TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL TO LIMIT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
WILL ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
THE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM INVOLVES PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY SHOULD KEEP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING QUIET.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP AND
EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BRING WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING THIS
TIME SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE...AND MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE JAMES VALLEY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL.
LOOKING AT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS WHEN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN...AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY MAINLY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LATEST HRRR/NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. BROUGHT MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS TO KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AND
KEPT MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT AT KDIK.
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. KEPT A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AT KISN AND KBIS.
KDIK APPEARS TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN...WHILE PRECIPITATION
HAS A HARD TIME MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT AND
BY SUNDAY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ009-010-
017>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
251 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD.
A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...ARCHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT 60 IN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AS OF 20 UTC ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND STRATUS...HIGHS QUICKLY DROP OFF ALL THE WAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE STATUS FIELD ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS FIELD HAS NEARLY HALTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS NOW ONLY SUGGEST THE
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE
SAKAKAWEA LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND
FOG FORMATION UNDER MUCH OF THE BANK TONIGHT. BY 08-09 UTC
TONIGHT...THE RAP/HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM ALL POINT TO THE STRATUS
AND FOG BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO BISECT LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
FOR SATURDAY...MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER IS FORECAST BE IN THE 50S WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION - SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SNOW AN
FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW AT VARIOUS
TIME PERIODS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP IN A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. SATURDAY EVENING THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY FROM CROSBY/WILLISTON TO MANDAN/BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN/OAKES.
LARGE VARIATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY...TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS VARYING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...EMERGING IN
THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...OR SLEET NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
SOUTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AT KMOT AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREDOMINATELY IFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH FOG
FORMATION POSSIBLE. KBIS AND KISN WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE STRATUS BANK THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KBIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AND FOG.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CONTINUING TO
MONITOR THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS DECK...WHICH
HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 1815 UTC. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SKY COVER AND FOG
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE
15-17 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1530 UTC. THE 12
THROUGH 14 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS BUILD THIS DECK SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND NIGHT...INTO THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA AS EARLY AS
18 TO 20 UTC...AND ENCROACHING ON WILLISTON LATER TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITH THE BUILD DOWN OF THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SUNSHINE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
AREA OF STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB
ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY
RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE
LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST.
PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST.
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING KMOT AND KJMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING KBIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND KISN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1530 UTC. THE 12
THROUGH 14 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS BUILD THIS DECK SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY AND NIGHT...INTO THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA AS EARLY AS
18 TO 20 UTC...AND ENCROACHING ON WILLISTON LATER TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITH THE BUILD DOWN OF THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SUNSHINE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
AREA OF STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB
ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY
RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE
LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST.
PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST.
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 1Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 948 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING KMOT AND KJMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING KBIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND KISN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
AREA OF STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB
ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY
RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE
LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST.
PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST.
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KMOT/KJMS BETWEEN 14-16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMOT WITH
VSBYS AROUND 6SM. KISN AND KMOT HAVE A VCSH MENTION AS A SMALL AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
329 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB
ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY
RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE
LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST.
PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST.
QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KISN/KMOT/KJMS BETWEEN 12-15Z
FRIDAY. FOG POSSIBLE AT KMOT WITH VSBYS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 13Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
KDIK/KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
910 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING SO DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED AND MAY
NOT EVEN OCCUR BY DAYBREAK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY...KEEPING SPREADS AROUND 10 DEGREES MOST PLACES. TEMPS MAY
FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOLDING STEADY
NEAR 40/LOWER 40S. RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO
HALF OF AN INCH. THE TEMPS/TD AND RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANYTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE WATER ISSUES. LIMITED RELEASE OF
ANY SNOWPACK WATER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ERIE PA FIRST. AS
THE COLD AIR PRESSES SOUTHWARD THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE MAY ARRIVE BEFORE IT DOES ALOFT. CONFIDENCE AND
IMPACT NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES ARE LEFT
BY EVENING. LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED MOST PLACES...WITH
MAYBE 3 OR 4 INCHES FOR NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY MONDAY IN THE 20S. HAVE
KEPT THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE LIKELY
GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
DOUBLE DIGITS. ANY CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN SWATH OF SNOW WITH IT LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NY STATE. HOWEVER A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.
NORTHERLY WINDS CROSSING THE LAKE WILL AT LEAST PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY NEXT WEEK
AND WATCH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE.
IF A LARGE ENOUGH CRACK OPENS UP WE COULD SEE A MORE MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO MAYBE LOWER 20S. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IF
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY
DIPPING BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT 23Z WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. NAM12 AND GFS GUIDANCE QUITE
AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING IN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR GOING
TO IFR AROUND DAWN SUNDAY. HRRR ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES VFR
CONDITIONS PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR TOWARDS
MORNING. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE HRRR TIMING FOR NOW...BRINGING
MVFR TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS 06Z-10Z KTOL/KFDY/KMFD WHERE
SURFACE/2000FT SPEED/DIRECTION DIFFERENCES ARE GREATEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NON VFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
ERIE LATE SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
630 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A LOCATION OR TWO CLOSER TO FREEZING
NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER. THE SOMEWHAT THINNER/HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
EVENING MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE/FEW DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE...BUT
THAT IS IT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECTING AN
INCREASE/THICKENING OF THE CLOUDS TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPS WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AREA MAY
GET A FEW DRIZZLE DROPS TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOLDING STEADY
NEAR 40/LOWER 40S. RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO
HALF OF AN INCH. THE TEMPS/TD AND RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANYTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE WATER ISSUES. LIMITED RELEASE OF
ANY SNOWPACK WATER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ERIE PA FIRST. AS
THE COLD AIR PRESSES SOUTHWARD THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE MAY ARRIVE BEFORE IT DOES ALOFT. CONFIDENCE AND
IMPACT NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES ARE LEFT
BY EVENING. LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED MOST PLACES...WITH
MAYBE 3 OR 4 INCHES FOR NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY MONDAY IN THE 20S. HAVE
KEPT THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE LIKELY
GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
DOUBLE DIGITS. ANY CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN SWATH OF SNOW WITH IT LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NY STATE. HOWEVER A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.
NORTHERLY WINDS CROSSING THE LAKE WILL AT LEAST PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY NEXT WEEK
AND WATCH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE.
IF A LARGE ENOUGH CRACK OPENS UP WE COULD SEE A MORE MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO MAYBE LOWER 20S. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IF
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY
DIPPING BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT 23Z WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. NAM12 AND GFS GUIDANCE QUITE
AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING IN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH MVFR GOING
TO IFR AROUND DAWN SUNDAY. HRRR ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES VFR
CONDITIONS PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR TOWARDS
MORNING. WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE HRRR TIMING FOR NOW...BRINGING
MVFR TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS 06Z-10Z KTOL/KFDY/KMFD WHERE
SURFACE/2000FT SPEED/DIRECTION DIFFERENCES ARE GREATEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NON VFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
ERIE LATE SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1042 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. SURFACE HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING WITHIN THE
SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING RAPID RISE UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE A BIT MORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO TELL WHETHER
OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS PROPERLY ON TRACK...BECAUSE OF THE RAPIDLY
RISING VALUES AND LOCAL EFFECTS. THE COLD GROUND WILL HAVE SOME
LIMITING FACTOR ON THE RISING TEMPERATURES...BUT PROBABLY NOT VERY
MUCH. SO...WE WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY IF IT BECOMES
NECESSARY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OF
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY WARNINGS FOR FIRE WEATHER.
NEVERTHELESS...THE WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH OVER MOST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 14-17Z...THEN DIMINISH
AROUND 00Z.
NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
KEND-KHBR AFTER 00Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.
KEPT AMD NOT SKED AT KHBR.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 4000 FT AGL MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF A
WAURIKA TO SEMINOLE LINE IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS VERIFY...THOUGH
NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING
OCCURS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY...+14
TO +19C...HOWEVER LINGERING SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY BE SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO MODIFY...ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. REGARDLESS...WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
HIGHS THINKING DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
VERTICAL MIXING THAN LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED. COOLEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR
DURANT AND ATOKA TO NEAR 80 NEAR GAGE AND WOODWARD. IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE OFF BY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG. THINK SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL GET ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH NO COLD
AIR NORTH OF THE TROUGH. INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEAR RECORD WARMTH MAY AGAIN OCCUR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT BE AS WARM COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
FROM NEAR CLINTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY. HELD OFF WITH A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS
NOT SURE ABOUT SURFACE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT CLOSELY MONITOR. THERE
IS A CHANCE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY MAY HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
INCREASING NORTH WINDS.
CLIMATE...
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
TODAY FEBRUARY 6
OKLAHOMA CITY...73 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 2009
WICHITA FALLS...83 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937
WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999
WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 40 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 77 31 80 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
532 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 14-17Z...THEN DIMINISH
AROUND 00Z.
NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
KEND-KHBR AFTER 00Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.
KEPT AMD NOT SKED AT KHBR.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 4000 FT AGL MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF A
WAURIKA TO SEMINOLE LINE IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS VERIFY...THOUGH
NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING
OCCURS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY...+14
TO +19C...HOWEVER LINGERING SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY BE SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO MODIFY...ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. REGARDLESS...WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
HIGHS THINKING DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
VERTICAL MIXING THAN LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED. COOLEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR
DURANT AND ATOKA TO NEAR 80 NEAR GAGE AND WOODWARD. IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE OFF BY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG. THINK SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL GET ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH NO COLD
AIR NORTH OF THE TROUGH. INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEAR RECORD WARMTH MAY AGAIN OCCUR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT BE AS WARM COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
FROM NEAR CLINTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY. HELD OFF WITH A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS
NOT SURE ABOUT SURFACE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT CLOSELY MONITOR. THERE
IS A CHANCE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY MAY HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
INCREASING NORTH WINDS.
CLIMATE...
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
TODAY FEBRUARY 6
OKLAHOMA CITY...73 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 2009
WICHITA FALLS...83 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937
WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999
WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 40 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 77 31 80 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
328 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 4000 FT AGL MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF A
WAURIKA TO SEMINOLE LINE IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS VERIFY...THOUGH
NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING
OCCURS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY...+14
TO +19C...HOWEVER LINGERING SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY BE SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO MODIFY...ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. REGARDLESS...WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
HIGHS THINKING DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
VERTICAL MIXING THAN LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED. COOLEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR
DURANT AND ATOKA TO NEAR 80 NEAR GAGE AND WOODWARD. IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE OFF BY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG. THINK SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL GET ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH NO COLD
AIR NORTH OF THE TROUGH. INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEAR RECORD WARMTH MAY AGAIN OCCUR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT BE AS WARM COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED.
MBS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
FROM NEAR CLINTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER WHERE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY. HELD OFF WITH A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS
NOT SURE ABOUT SURFACE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT CLOSELY MONITOR. THERE
IS A CHANCE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY MAY HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
INCREASING NORTH WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
TODAY FEBRUARY 6
OKLAHOMA CITY...73 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 2009
WICHITA FALLS...83 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937
WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999
WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 40 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 77 31 80 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTH AT ALL SITES AROUND 15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/
UPDATE...
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY
COVER. LOW CLOUDS IN SE THIRD OF FA CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH THIS
EVENING AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A BIT OF A NORTHWARD PUSH
IN SOME AREAS. MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS BEFORE FINALLY SLOWLY
MOVING OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING. RAP HOLDS THESE CLOUDS IN
LONGER THAN THE NAM AND WITH HOW TOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE HANGING IN
WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER TREND OF THE RAP SO HAVE ADJUSTED SKY
COVER TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PART OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA WHICH THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON SO UNSURE HOW FAR INTO THE FA THESE CLOUDS WILL GO.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON MIN TEMPS. WHERE AND HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SOME AREAS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AND THE HIGH CLOUDS...
DEPENDING ON HOW THICK... COULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING IN
SOME AREAS. KEPT LOW TEMPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME IN SE PARTS OF FA
WHERE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BUT LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW MORE DEGREES ELSEWHERE SINCE MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS HAD
CURRENT TEMPS NEAR THE FORECASTED LOWS. UPDATES OUT SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM TODAY...WITH COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY...AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SHORT ORDER BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF 65 TO 75 DEGREES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. AT THIS
TIME...HUMIDITIES LOOK A BIT MARGINAL FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
REGARDLESS...BE VERY CAUTIOUS AND MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY IF
YOU HAVE PLANS TO BURN TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. THIS WITH CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...THOUGH
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OR LESS POPS...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN
PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AUSTIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 67 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 70 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 71 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 32 76 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 27 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 32 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/26/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
858 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR STORM IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 60 MPH IN KLAMATH
FALLS...WEED...AND AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ADDED THE KLAMATH FALLS
AREA TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING PRODUCT...AND THIS WARNING AREA MAY
BE EXPANDED FURTHER TO OTHER EAST SIDE AREAS AS DATA IS EXAMINED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GET EVEN STRONGER...PEAKING AT THE COAST
FRIDAY MORNING AND AT INLAND AREAS LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS STARTING TO AFFECT COASTAL
AREAS...WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING IN INTENSITY ON FRIDAY.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM
COASTAL AND POTENTIALLY EAST SIDE RIVER FLOODING TO LANDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS...TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THERE ARE A HOST OF PRODUCTS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN AND WIND
IMPACTS...AND PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT THE HAZARD PRODUCTS ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD.
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 06/00Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SHEAR WILL BE
A CONCERN AT ALL 4 OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 50-60 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
AT TIMES. EAST OF THE CASCADES SOME HIGHER LEVEL WINDS OF 50 TO 70
KNOTS MAY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS, TONIGHT AND INCREASINGLY SO
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO EAST SIDE TERMINALS. COASTAL LOCATIONS
AND SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, INCLUDING KMFR ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
SEE PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE WITH STRONG MOUNTAIN
WAVE TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STRONG
WINDS AND WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE.
AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO THE COAST RANGE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. INLAND...ALSO EXPECT
MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, INCLUDING KMHS. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. /CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PST THURSDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2015....A SERIES OF
STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT WITH STRONG GALES
TO STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 18 TO 22 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTS WILL
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL GALES.
THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, MODELS SHOW A STRONG LOW
APPROACHING THE WATERS FRONT THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST. THIS MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG
GALE TO STORM EVENT. VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL VERY STEEP SEAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS ARE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
AND MOUNT SHASTA REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COAST FROM
CAPE BLANCO TOWARDS GOLD BEACH, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED
AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OF BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE ON
SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NEAR
130W WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST,
HEADLANDS AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS. BELOW, WE`LL ADDRESS THE
RAIN AND WIND IMPACT.
RAIN: MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTH
COAST, COAST RANGE, WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THE HARDEST.
THE WPC QPF FORECAST IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC,
BUT THEY SHOW HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW, THUS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION RATES. FORECASTED RAIN TOTAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE AS FOLLOWS: 5-8 INCHES FOR THE COAST, COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT TOTALS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY BUT TOTALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT WITH 1.50 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND 0.25 TO AN INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH JUST NEAR CHILOQUIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN/SOUTH SISKIYOU COUNTY. FLOOD CONCERNS STILL
EXIST, THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN
SCARS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. DETAILS FOR ALL OF THE PRODUCTS
CAN BE FOUND AT FFAMFR. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OT FRIDAY
IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
OF NOTE, THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN
INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND IT SUGGEST THE
MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WILL COME IN TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT EAST WITH
OFF/ON RAIN BEHIND IT LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN
QPF AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. -PETRUCELLI
WIND...THE SHASTA VALLEY IS ALREADY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND OF
SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY
LIKELY TO SEE SUSTAINED 40 TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. BY FRIDAY MORNING
EVEN THE YREKA AREA COULD SEE SUSTAINED WIND 35 TO 45 MPH.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WIND READING SHOWS 45 MPH WINDS NEAR CAPE
BLANCO. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATION NEAR THE CAPE. WITH
BUOY 15 OFF PORT ORFORD EXPERIENCING WIND GUST TO 55 MPH..EXPECT
COASTAL JET TO BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVERNIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL
BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF COOS BAY THROUGH CAPE BLANCO INTO PORT ORFORD
AND GOLD BEACH. WINDS SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 70
MPH. TRAFFIC ALONG HWY 140 COULD BE AFFECTED ESPECIALLY DURING THE
STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY THAT IS EXPOSED. THIS WILL BE MAINLY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONG WINDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WE EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR MEDFORD
AIRPORT SHOWS WE COULD SEE WIND GUST TO 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS GUST SPEED IS LOWER THAN THE
CUSTOMARY HIGH WIND CRITERIA..BECAUSE THE GUST IS EXPECTED IN THE
POPULATED AREA WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING TO ERROR ON THE
SAFE SIDE. /FB
A DRYING TREND IS STILL IN THE WORKS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET, BUT THERE
WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031-625.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ624.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ021>024-028-615-616-618-619.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ027-028-617-621.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026-617-622.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
ORZ026-620-622-623.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ620-621.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ029.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ080>083-085-280>282-284-285.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-284.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
NSK/FJB/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
930 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES. MESO ANAL PLACES THE
WARM FRONT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER WHERE TEMPS DIP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SERVING UP SOME PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE NEAR TERM THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF THE SMALL PATCH OF LIGHT
RAIN THAT IT HAD CROSSING NRN PA. NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY
*GREATEST RISK OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY INTO THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE
ENERGY AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S...DRIVING A SFC-850 LOW
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FCST
TO REACH SW PA AND NRN WV BY 09/12Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. REDUCED
MEAN QPF BY 25% BASED ON RECENT INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION. THIS
KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GRIDDED 48-HOUR TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS DERIVED WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAIN
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FCST IS THE NWD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE. CONCERNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IT APPEARS THE RISK IS
MOST LIKELY TO THE DOWNSIDE (LESSER AMOUNTS) WITH A MORE ROBUST
WARM NOSE ALOFT POSSIBLY SURGING INTO NY STATE...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG I-80 TO THE NY BORDER. THE
NAM/SREF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON A WARMER SOLUTION WHICH CAN
LKLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK...ALTHOUGH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS OVER A LONG
DURATION (2 DAY PERIOD) REMAINS OVER THE FAR NCENTRAL AND NERN
ZONES INTO NY STATE...WHERE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
SFC LOW TRACK. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR WILL LKLY BE FILTERING SWD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THROUGH SRN NY INTO NRN PA AND UNDERCUTTING THE MARGINALLY WARMER
NOSE OF AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A FREEZING RAIN/ICE
THREAT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE 09Z SREF
APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON A SIGNAL FOR ICE ACCUM FROM THE SRN
POCONOS INTO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY WHICH WAS ALSO REFLECTED WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE LATEST WWD -- AND THEREFORE BUMPED UP FZRA AMTS
INTO THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
PROBABLY BE CONSIDERING A WINTER WX ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FCST WITH THIS EVENT IS AVG WITH MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.
PTYPES GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW/RAIN/MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO AND PIVOTS THROUGH
THE MID ATLC REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TREK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SHOULD BE COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE...THOUGH WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE
-16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO NEAR -10 IN THE NW MTNS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE
LOW. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN
TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER AT 00Z
SUNDAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR OOZING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS.
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SNOW NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD TO
KIPT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. AN AREA OF STEADY...LIGHT
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW WILL EXPAND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
STAY MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR FIRST THIS EVENING AT
KBFD...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT-DAYBREAK FOR KJST...KIPT AND KUNV. VFR
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY BEFORE DIPPING TO MVFR.
MENTIONED LLWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/
NE THROUGH KAOO.KUNV AND KIPT...AS THE AXIS OF A SWRLY LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW COLD AIR JUST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SD FROM NEW YORK STATE...WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KBFD SUNDAY MORNING /AFT 12Z/...THEN
WORKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD.
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...PM SHSN POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES. MESO ANAL PLACES THE
WARM FRONT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER WHERE TEMPS DIP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SERVING UP SOME PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THE HRRR TRACKS A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT
UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THE LOW POP FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
FRONT HANGING UP OVER OR NORTH OF THE BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY DZ/FZDZ IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NRN TIER ZONES LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SETTLE SOUTH.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY
*GREATEST RISK OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY INTO THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE
ENERGY AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S...DRIVING A SFC-850 LOW
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FCST
TO REACH SW PA AND NRN WV BY 09/12Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. REDUCED
MEAN QPF BY 25% BASED ON RECENT INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION. THIS
KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GRIDDED 48-HOUR TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS DERIVED WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAIN
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FCST IS THE NWD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE. CONCERNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IT APPEARS THE RISK IS
MOST LIKELY TO THE DOWNSIDE (LESSER AMOUNTS) WITH A MORE ROBUST
WARM NOSE ALOFT POSSIBLY SURGING INTO NY STATE...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG I-80 TO THE NY BORDER. THE
NAM/SREF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON A WARMER SOLUTION WHICH CAN
LKLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK...ALTHOUGH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS OVER A LONG
DURATION (2 DAY PERIOD) REMAINS OVER THE FAR NCENTRAL AND NERN
ZONES INTO NY STATE...WHERE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
SFC LOW TRACK. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR WILL LKLY BE FILTERING SWD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THROUGH SRN NY INTO NRN PA AND UNDERCUTTING THE MARGINALLY WARMER
NOSE OF AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A FREEZING RAIN/ICE
THREAT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE 09Z SREF
APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON A SIGNAL FOR ICE ACCUM FROM THE SRN
POCONOS INTO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY WHICH WAS ALSO REFLECTED WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE LATEST WWD -- AND THEREFORE BUMPED UP FZRA AMTS
INTO THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
PROBABLY BE CONSIDERING A WINTER WX ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FCST WITH THIS EVENT IS AVG WITH MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.
PTYPES GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW/RAIN/MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO AND PIVOTS THROUGH
THE MID ATLC REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TREK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SHOULD BE COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE...THOUGH WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE
-16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO NEAR -10 IN THE NW MTNS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE
LOW. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN
TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER AT 00Z
SUNDAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR OOZING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS.
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SNOW NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD TO
KIPT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. AN AREA OF STEADY...LIGHT
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW WILL EXPAND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
STAY MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR FIRST THIS EVENING AT
KBFD...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT-DAYBREAK FOR KJST...KIPT AND KUNV. VFR
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY BEFORE DIPPING TO MVFR.
MENTIONED LLWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/
NE THROUGH KAOO.KUNV AND KIPT...AS THE AXIS OF A SWRLY LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW COLD AIR JUST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SD FROM NEW YORK STATE...WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KBFD SUNDAY MORNING /AFT 12Z/...THEN
WORKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD.
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...PM SHSN POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
636 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES. MESO ANAL PLACES THE
WARM FRONT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER WHERE TEMPS DIP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SERVING UP SOME PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THE HRRR TRACKS A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT
UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE THE LOW POP FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
FRONT HANGING UP OVER OR NORTH OF THE BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY DZ/FZDZ IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NRN TIER ZONES LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SETTLE SOUTH.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY
*GREATEST RISK OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY INTO THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE
ENERGY AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S...DRIVING A SFC-850 LOW
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FCST
TO REACH SW PA AND NRN WV BY 09/12Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. REDUCED
MEAN QPF BY 25% BASED ON RECENT INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION. THIS
KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GRIDDED 48-HOUR TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS DERIVED WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAIN
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FCST IS THE NWD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE. CONCERNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IT APPEARS THE RISK IS
MOST LIKELY TO THE DOWNSIDE (LESSER AMOUNTS) WITH A MORE ROBUST
WARM NOSE ALOFT POSSIBLY SURGING INTO NY STATE...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG I-80 TO THE NY BORDER. THE
NAM/SREF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON A WARMER SOLUTION WHICH CAN
LKLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK...ALTHOUGH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS OVER A LONG
DURATION (2 DAY PERIOD) REMAINS OVER THE FAR NCENTRAL AND NERN
ZONES INTO NY STATE...WHERE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
SFC LOW TRACK. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR WILL LKLY BE FILTERING SWD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THROUGH SRN NY INTO NRN PA AND UNDERCUTTING THE MARGINALLY WARMER
NOSE OF AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A FREEZING RAIN/ICE
THREAT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE 09Z SREF
APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON A SIGNAL FOR ICE ACCUM FROM THE SRN
POCONOS INTO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY WHICH WAS ALSO REFLECTED WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE LATEST WWD -- AND THEREFORE BUMPED UP FZRA AMTS
INTO THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
PROBABLY BE CONSIDERING A WINTER WX ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FCST WITH THIS EVENT IS AVG WITH MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.
PTYPES GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW/RAIN/MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO AND PIVOTS THROUGH
THE MID ATLC REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TREK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SHOULD BE COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE...THOUGH WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE
-16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO NEAR -10 IN THE NW MTNS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE
LOW. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN
TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE...THE EXCEPTIONS ARE BFD. THE CIG
REDUCTIONS ARE FROM UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT FROM THE INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SWRLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.
THE INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD SOME LOW /IFR/ CIGS AT KBFD
OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD SPREAD TO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD.
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...PM SHSN POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
412 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON - AND EVEN
AS WARM AS THE MID 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD - PLENTY OF SNOWMELT HAS
OCCURRED. WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTRODUCED NEAR SURFACE WILL BE A WILD CARD. THE
NAM/SREF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS THAN THE GFS. THE RAP IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO FOG IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FAVORABLE MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY
FOG MENTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 C WILL RESULT
IN UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. WHILE SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...THEY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING WE CAN ACHIEVE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY WHERE IT IS STILL FAIRLY DEEP. CERTAINLY
THINK THAT GOOD MIXING WILL BE ACHIEVED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE
HIGHS REACHED THE 50S AND MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE WEST HERE...MAKING
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S VERY POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE 40S ARE
REASONABLE WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD PUT A GOOD
DENT IN THE SNOWPACK. NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NEAREST STRATUS DECK IS WELL NORTH
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE EXPECTATION THAT FOG WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. BY AFTERNOON...SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WITH SOME MID CLOUDS BUILDING LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
DISTINCT IMPULSE COMES OUT OF THE ACTIVE WESTERN TROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADS ACROSS AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUBTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF DIV Q
FIELDS AS A CONSENSUS...SO HAVE SHIFTED THE POPS JUST A BIT TO
TIGHTEN UP THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT...AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MIDDLE CWA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF QPF EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL
GENERATED PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FIGHT A DECENT SUBCLOUD DRY
LAYER...PROBABLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. COVERAGE OF PRECIP ALSO
CHALLENGED BY THE DRY LAYER...SO KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. THE CRITICAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES...
NOT ONLY AIR BUT ALSO SURFACE...AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PERHAPS WANDERING AROUND
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MEANS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF AIR TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE A SHADE
BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS EAST/NORTH...BUT LIKELY THAT MORE OF THE
PRECIP WILL END UP RAIN INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN. DOES NOT TAKE A
GREAT DEAL OF ICE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...AND EVEN IF AIR TEMPS REMAIN
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THE ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A SHADE COOLER IN PROTECTED LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS...AND
COULD FIND OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT MORE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ON SUNDAY...SYSTEM WASTES LITTLE TIME RIPPLING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA...AND WILL DRIVE THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. STRATUS FIELD WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOUTHWARD BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS WELL...AND COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL SYSTEM
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. WHILE FAR FROM A STRONG COLD PUSH BY ANY MEANS...IT
WILL ACT TO SHUNT ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING THREAT OUT OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ON EDGE OF
CLOUD FIELD TOWARD THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. THERE
COULD BE A BIT MORE CHANCE FOR CLEARING NEAR RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MONDAY...BUT STRONG LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT AND EVER PRESENT INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD ON TO
MOST CLOUDS RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WAVE MAKES A PUSH TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VERY NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT AS TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THE WARM ADVECTIVE WING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT MAINLY OVER
AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I90 ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN MUCH TOO WARM TO EXPECT MORE THAN LIQUID...AND WILL
AGAIN BE DANCING A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN LINE ON TEMPERATURES...BUT
GENERALLY MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT THAN THE SATURDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM WITH ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR IN PLACE EAST OF THE
JAMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DAY PART OF THE AREA AT LEAST PEEKS INTO
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AHEAD OF MAIN COLD PUSH LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MIXING WOULD BRING SOME NEAR
60 DEGREE READINGS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WORK UP TOWARD THESE READINGS ONCE ASSURED OF THE DEMISE
OF THE SNOW COVER.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AND CERTAINLY WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR
RUSHING IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. COLD TEMPS
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION
BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS QUICKENED EVEN MORE BY LOSS OF MOST SNOW COVER
IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW MELT. THE NAM REMAINS
THE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH THE GFS INDICATES FOG IS LESS
LIKELY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MODELING TRENDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
940 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND GENERALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER AND
THROUGH THE RIDGE. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...COOLEST
GENERALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
ANY SNOW COVERED AREAS ON THE PLAINS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...THOUGH STARTING TO PICK UP OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE THIS WEEK AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS...INCLUDING
RAPID CITY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE RAP AIRPORT
RECORD HIGH IS 62...WHILE DOWNTOWN RAP IS 66. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY OVER NORTHEAST WY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW/LOW TROUGH PUSHES
ONSHORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR -SHRASN TUESDAY. GUIDANCE THEN
DIVERGES WITH DISPOSITION OF ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...GFS COLDEST...ECMWF WARMEST. HAVE SPLIT FORECAST DOWN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CWA...BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTH WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30KT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE AIDING IN
THE TRANSPORT OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING LOW STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND STRATUS WILL
PROBABLY BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPEDE WARMING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 60S THERE...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN
SUNNY WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE FIRE THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY WET
FUELS...EVEN IN NW ZONES WHERE THE RH DOES DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
A MORE ROBUST ROUND OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER
THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
BE STRONGLY CAPPED NEAR 900MB WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE THIS
INVERSION. HOWEVER THE LIFTING OF THE MOIST LAYER IN THE LOWEST
4000FT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS WEAK...AND
CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS FOUR
LONGWAVE TROUGHS...WHICH IS A STABLE WAVE NUMBER...MEANING THE
MAIN TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL TEND TO HAVE LITTLE LONGITUDINAL
MOVEMENT. THUS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP ANY CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION. IN ADDITION THERE HAS BEEN A CURIOUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LOW SEEN ON 100MB MAPS THAT HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE DURING THE LAST
MONTH SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR
15N AND 115W. THIS FEATURE LIKELY EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE SEEN
SEVERAL 500MB LOWS CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DROP INTO THE
BAJA REGION RECENTLY. YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DETACH
FROM THE WESTERLIES NEXT WEEK AND WANDER AROUND IN THE SONORA
DESERT. WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER LOW...THIS
PATTERN IS ALSO KNOWN AS A REX BLOCK AND WILL LIKELY ENSURE THE
UPPER LOW WILL STAY EFFECTIVELY STATIONARY UNTIL PERHAPS LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THIS BLOCK CAN BREAK
DOWN...SO WE WILL DEFINITELY BE CARRYING A MONTHLY RAINFALL
DEFICIT THROUGH AT LEAST MID FEBRUARY.
FOR THE DETAILS OF NEXT WEEK/S FORECAST....FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE REAL
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO CREATE A GOOD
OVERRUNNING SETUP HERE. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
GRADUALLY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER
THE REGION.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
STRATUS IS ALMOST BURNT OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS I WRITE THIS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED IFR
STRATUS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REASONING...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES SHOW EXISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A NUMBER OF MODELS SUCH AS BAK40...NAM...SREF...WRF
ARW...AND RAP ARE INDICATING THIS MOISTURE REACHING THE TAF
SITES. WINDS OF 10KT AT THE SURFACE AND 20-30KT 1K-2K ABOVE
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR WITH A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
URBAN PARTICULATES.
GFS HAS DONE A POOR JOB AT DISCRIMINATING THE LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/DRIZZLE THE LAST FEW DAYS SO I AM NOT BELIEVING
ITS VFR SOLUTION. IFR WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL AFTER MID
MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR AND BURN OFF BY NOON. IN
EXTENSION...SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH AN
IFR MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AFTERNOON. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 72 53 73 45 / 0 0 5 10 0
WACO, TX 43 70 53 78 43 / 0 0 5 10 0
PARIS, TX 40 69 49 69 44 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENTON, TX 40 73 49 74 39 / 0 0 5 10 0
MCKINNEY, TX 41 70 51 71 41 / 0 0 5 10 0
DALLAS, TX 44 70 54 72 46 / 0 0 5 10 0
TERRELL, TX 41 69 54 71 45 / 0 0 10 10 0
CORSICANA, TX 43 69 55 72 47 / 0 0 10 10 0
TEMPLE, TX 42 69 53 78 45 / 0 0 5 10 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 41 78 47 77 42 / 0 0 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.AVIATION...
STRATUS IS ALMOST BURNT OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS I WRITE THIS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED IFR
STRATUS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REASONING...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES SHOW EXISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A NUMBER OF MODELS SUCH AS BAK40...NAM...SREF...WRF
ARW...AND RAP ARE INDICATING THIS MOISTURE REACHING THE TAF
SITES. WINDS OF 10KT AT THE SURFACE AND 20-30KT 1K-2K ABOVE
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR WITH A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
URBAN PARTICULATES.
GFS HAS DONE A POOR JOB AT DISCRIMINATING THE LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/DRIZZLE THE LAST FEW DAYS SO I AM NOT BELIEVING
ITS VFR SOLUTION. IFR WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL AFTER MID
MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR AND BURN OFF BY NOON. IN
EXTENSION...SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH AN
IFR MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AFTERNOON. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD BUT
DID MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HAVE UPDATED
TONIGHT/S FORECAST TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER AND TO REMOVE MENTION
OF FOG AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2SM. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY...
PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR
CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID
60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO
MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN
WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR.
SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL
LIQUID...FOR NOW.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 43 76 52 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 60 41 74 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 55 40 71 49 70 / 0 0 0 20 20
DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 42 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 0 0 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 55 43 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 60 41 73 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
914 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD BUT
DID MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST CLOUD COVER
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HAVE UPDATED
TONIGHT/S FORECAST TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER AND TO REMOVE MENTION
OF FOG AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2SM. TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 526 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
/12Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE FORECAST...AS CURRENT
CIGS LOWER THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BEFORE MIDDAY.
ANY TIMING OF CIGS GOING TO HIGH MVFR...THEN CLEARING OUT WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW SOON SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM. THE ONLY CHANGE WE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE TO
BRING IN A TEMPO FOR HIGH MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 THROUGH MID MORNING
AND TO DELAY CLEARING TIL LATE MORNING. MODELS DO VARY ON TIMING
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TRENDS REGARDING THIS MORNING/S STRATUS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS
AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. PATCHY BR/FG MAY RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE
CURRENT TAFS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY...
PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR
CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID
60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO
MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN
WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR.
SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL
LIQUID...FOR NOW.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 43 76 52 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 60 41 74 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 55 40 71 49 70 / 0 0 0 20 20
DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 42 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 0 0 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 55 43 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 60 41 73 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
526 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE FORECAST...AS CURRENT
CIGS LOWER THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BEFORE MIDDAY.
ANY TIMING OF CIGS GOING TO HIGH MVFR...THEN CLEARING OUT WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW SOON SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM. THE ONLY CHANGE WE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE TO
BRING IN A TEMPO FOR HIGH MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 THROUGH MID MORNING
AND TO DELAY CLEARING TIL LATE MORNING. MODELS DO VARY ON TIMING
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TRENDS REGARDING THIS MORNING/S STRATUS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS
AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. PATCHY BR/FG MAY RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE
CURRENT TAFS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY...
PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR
CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID
60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO
MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN
WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR.
SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL
LIQUID...FOR NOW.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 43 76 52 73 / 0 5 5 10 10
WACO, TX 59 41 74 52 74 / 0 5 5 10 10
PARIS, TX 54 40 71 49 70 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 5 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 57 42 75 50 71 / 0 5 5 10 10
DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 10 10
TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 5 5 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 56 43 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 59 41 73 52 76 / 0 5 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY...
PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR
CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID
60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO
MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN
WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR.
SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN
CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL
LIQUID...FOR NOW.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1116 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT COULD APPROACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WESTERN TERMINALS...SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT DO
NOT FEEL THAT IT WILL CLEAR KDFW...KGKY...KDAL OR KACT UNTIL
12 OR 13Z. HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT EVEN CLEAR KFTW/KAFW BEFORE 12Z.
WHEREVER IT DOES CLEAR...AND THERE IS A SMALL T/DP SPREAD...THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WILL BE HIGH AND THUS FOG
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE CLEARING LINE. IF FOG FORMS...IT
COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
FOR THIS ISSUANCE...DECIDED ON 3SM BR AT KFTW/KAFW...5SM BR AT
KACT AND A GENERAL 6SM BR AT THE OTHER METROPLEX TERMINALS.
WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT COME MID MORNING /15Z/ ALL TERMINALS
WILL CLEAR WITH SKC-SCT250 CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX
WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. KACT REMAINS IN
NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT FLOW...BUT WILL VEER BY 11Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 7-13 KNOTS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH TAKES CONTROL OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 43 76 52 73 / 0 5 5 10 10
WACO, TX 59 41 74 52 74 / 0 5 5 10 10
PARIS, TX 54 40 71 49 70 / 0 5 5 20 20
DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 5 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 57 42 75 50 71 / 0 5 5 10 10
DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 10 10
TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 5 5 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 56 43 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 59 41 73 52 76 / 0 5 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. TEMPERATURES GIVEN SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AIR ALOFT COMING IN
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
3. FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S.. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 0.3-0.4 INCHES PER RAP ANALYSIS. A LITTLE HIGHER
MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 WHERE READINGS WERE 0.5-
0.6 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN BOTH AREAS WAS
CENTERED AT OR ABOVE 600MB...THOUGH...AS INDICATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS.
THE DRIER AIR BELOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW WAS EVIDENT COMING INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SHORTWAVE. THIS SNOW WAS
BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30
WEST OF I-29 BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED. TEMPERATURE WISE...QUITE
THE CONTRAST EXISTS AT 925MB ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WAS A
PLUME OF 5-15C READINGS RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE ACROSS MT...WY...SD
AND NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS AIR HAS BEEN HEADING OUR WAY AS OUR
READINGS ARE NOW UP TO -3 TO -7C. AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE
10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...REFLECTING THAT WARMER
AIR COMING IN. FINALLY IN NORTHERN ND AND MN...READINGS WERE -10 TO
-15C HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SNOW THERE.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS
THE WARMING TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL CONTINUE. IN
FACT...850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK
NORTH OF I-70...AND IN MANY SPOTS DEEP...WILL PREVENT MIXING TO
850MB. WE MIGHT MIX TO 925MB...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY WHERE MORE TREES EXIST...TO ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 20S TO LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE REAL INTERESTING TONIGHT. WE
CONTINUE TO WARM ADVECT AT 850MB AND 925MB...REACHING -4C EAST TO
+4C WEST AT 925MB BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING IN MANY SPOTS...AND
WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE TEENS.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS. THAT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA PRODUCING THE SNOW IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO TRACK
INTO UPPER MI BY 18Z. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MARCH
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING TAYLOR AND
CLARK COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE BULK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADAR ECHOES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AS
VIRGA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT. HERE TOO...THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW GIVEN PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS ARE NOW NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT...THE WARM
NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD ALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LASTLY FOG POTENTIAL. WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW AT 925MB...ITS
HARD TO SEE MUCH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
EVEN WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE OF THE COLD EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. MUCH
OF TODAYS WARMING WILL PROBABLY GO INTO WARMING THE SNOWPACK VERSUS
RELEASING MOISTURE FROM IT. THUS...BELIEVE THE FOG CONCERN IS LOW
AND TRIMMED IT TO MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COME IN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTSCONCERNS...
1. WILL IT PRECIPITATE AT ALL THIS WEEKEND? IF SO WHAT TYPE.
2. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
3. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
A LOT HAS CHANGED MODEL WISE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 3 DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. NOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND TO
MOSTLY END UP DRY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
EVEN THE 06.00Z NAM WAITS UNTIL A BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT THATS IT.
WHATS HAPPENED IS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT MORE AND MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE AREA...PRIMARILY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS HARD TO COME BY. THE
BIGGEST THING WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAUSED BY A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...WHICH IS A BIG IF GIVEN THAT THE 925MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND GULF OF MEXICO RETURN IS POINTED MORE TOWARDS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND QUESTIONS ON
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WEAK FORCING...FIGURE DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPES.
REGARDING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES...925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4C WARMER ON
SATURDAY...SO ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUN WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...40S ARE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AS SUGGESTED BY 06.00Z MAV/MET/REGIONAL
CANADIAN/ECMWF GUIDANCE. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA UP. 30S
SEEM LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ALBEDO WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND
POSSIBLY 20S OVER TAYLOR COUNTY INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS TAKE THEIR SWEET TIME COOLING IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE LOW.
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION
COMES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH FORMS PRECIPITATION MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR THIS. MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT IN LATER FORECASTS WHICH
COULD MODULATE THE EXPECTED SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER 925MB AIR FLOWS IN.
THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY...WITH COOLING
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ABOUT
HOW MUCH COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE ROBUST AND POSSIBLE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WORTHY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY APPEAR DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAKING A BIT SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD CLEAR KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 18-21Z.
SOME THREAT FOR A MVFR DECK TO MOVE IN RIGHT AFTER THAT FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE LOW CIGS CURRENTLY SIT OVER ND...PER SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS...AND HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THESE COULD PRESS OVER KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 22-00Z...LINGERING FOR A
FEW HOURS. ITS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GO EITHERWAY...SO GOING TO HOLD
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE...KEEPING THE MVFR CIGS JUST NORTH. WILL
MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICK FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS WORK ON THE SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ITS A LIGHT-
FLUFFY SNOW AND LATEST ANALYSIS POINT TO RATHER COLD TEMPS IN THE
SNOW PACK. SO...ANY MELTING WOULD LIKELY GO INTO COMPACTION OF THE
SNOW RATHER THAN INTO SATURATION OF THE NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS LIMITS
THE FG/BR POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS...BUT WILL HOLD
P6SM FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
542 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. TEMPERATURES GIVEN SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AIR ALOFT COMING IN
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
3. FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S.. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 0.3-0.4 INCHES PER RAP ANALYSIS. A LITTLE HIGHER
MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 WHERE READINGS WERE 0.5-
0.6 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN BOTH AREAS WAS
CENTERED AT OR ABOVE 600MB...THOUGH...AS INDICATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS.
THE DRIER AIR BELOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW WAS EVIDENT COMING INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SHORTWAVE. THIS SNOW WAS
BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30
WEST OF I-29 BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED. TEMPERATURE WISE...QUITE
THE CONTRAST EXISTS AT 925MB ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WAS A
PLUME OF 5-15C READINGS RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE ACROSS MT...WY...SD
AND NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS AIR HAS BEEN HEADING OUR WAY AS OUR
READINGS ARE NOW UP TO -3 TO -7C. AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE
10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...REFLECTING THAT WARMER
AIR COMING IN. FINALLY IN NORTHERN ND AND MN...READINGS WERE -10 TO
-15C HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SNOW THERE.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS
THE WARMING TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL CONTINUE. IN
FACT...850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK
NORTH OF I-70...AND IN MANY SPOTS DEEP...WILL PREVENT MIXING TO
850MB. WE MIGHT MIX TO 925MB...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY WHERE MORE TREES EXIST...TO ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 20S TO LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE REAL INTERESTING TONIGHT. WE
CONTINUE TO WARM ADVECT AT 850MB AND 925MB...REACHING -4C EAST TO
+4C WEST AT 925MB BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING IN MANY SPOTS...AND
WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE TEENS.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS. THAT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA PRODUCING THE SNOW IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO TRACK
INTO UPPER MI BY 18Z. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MARCH
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING TAYLOR AND
CLARK COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE BULK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADAR ECHOES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AS
VIRGA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT. HERE TOO...THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW GIVEN PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS ARE NOW NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT...THE WARM
NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD ALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LASTLY FOG POTENTIAL. WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW AT 925MB...ITS
HARD TO SEE MUCH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
EVEN WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE OF THE COLD EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. MUCH
OF TODAYS WARMING WILL PROBABLY GO INTO WARMING THE SNOWPACK VERSUS
RELEASING MOISTURE FROM IT. THUS...BELIEVE THE FOG CONCERN IS LOW
AND TRIMMED IT TO MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COME IN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTSCONCERNS...
1. WILL IT PRECIPITATE AT ALL THIS WEEKEND? IF SO WHAT TYPE.
2. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
3. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
A LOT HAS CHANGED MODEL WISE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 3 DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. NOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND TO
MOSTLY END UP DRY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
EVEN THE 06.00Z NAM WAITS UNTIL A BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT THATS IT.
WHATS HAPPENED IS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT MORE AND MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE AREA...PRIMARILY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS HARD TO COME BY. THE
BIGGEST THING WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAUSED BY A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...WHICH IS A BIG IF GIVEN THAT THE 925MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND GULF OF MEXICO RETURN IS POINTED MORE TOWARDS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND QUESTIONS ON
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WEAK FORCING...FIGURE DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPES.
REGARDING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES...925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4C WARMER ON
SATURDAY...SO ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUN WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...40S ARE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AS SUGGESTED BY 06.00Z MAV/MET/REGIONAL
CANADIAN/ECMWF GUIDANCE. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA UP. 30S
SEEM LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ALBEDO WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND
POSSIBLY 20S OVER TAYLOR COUNTY INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS TAKE THEIR SWEET TIME COOLING IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE LOW.
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION
COMES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH FORMS PRECIPITATION MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR THIS. MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT IN LATER FORECASTS WHICH
COULD MODULATE THE EXPECTED SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER 925MB AIR FLOWS IN.
THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY...WITH COOLING
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ABOUT
HOW MUCH COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE ROBUST AND POSSIBLE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WORTHY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY APPEAR DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BESIDES THE SNOW...
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 3-6K RANGE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THE TIME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A BROKEN 6-10K DECK THIS MORNING...AND THEN SKIES WILL
BECOME SCATTERED AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE EVENING. THE CLOUDS
WILL THEN BECOME BROKEN 15-25K THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. TEMPERATURES GIVEN SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AIR ALOFT COMING IN
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
3. FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S.. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 0.3-0.4 INCHES PER RAP ANALYSIS. A LITTLE HIGHER
MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 WHERE READINGS WERE 0.5-
0.6 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN BOTH AREAS WAS
CENTERED AT OR ABOVE 600MB...THOUGH...AS INDICATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS.
THE DRIER AIR BELOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW WAS EVIDENT COMING INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SHORTWAVE. THIS SNOW WAS
BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30
WEST OF I-29 BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED. TEMPERATURE WISE...QUITE
THE CONTRAST EXISTS AT 925MB ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WAS A
PLUME OF 5-15C READINGS RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE ACROSS MT...WY...SD
AND NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS AIR HAS BEEN HEADING OUR WAY AS OUR
READINGS ARE NOW UP TO -3 TO -7C. AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE
10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...REFLECTING THAT WARMER
AIR COMING IN. FINALLY IN NORTHERN ND AND MN...READINGS WERE -10 TO
-15C HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SNOW THERE.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS
THE WARMING TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL CONTINUE. IN
FACT...850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK
NORTH OF I-70...AND IN MANY SPOTS DEEP...WILL PREVENT MIXING TO
850MB. WE MIGHT MIX TO 925MB...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY WHERE MORE TREES EXIST...TO ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 20S TO LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE REAL INTERESTING TONIGHT. WE
CONTINUE TO WARM ADVECT AT 850MB AND 925MB...REACHING -4C EAST TO
+4C WEST AT 925MB BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING IN MANY SPOTS...AND
WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE TEENS.
ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS. THAT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA PRODUCING THE SNOW IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO TRACK
INTO UPPER MI BY 18Z. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MARCH
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING TAYLOR AND
CLARK COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE BULK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADAR ECHOES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AS
VIRGA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT. HERE TOO...THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW GIVEN PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS ARE NOW NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT...THE WARM
NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD ALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LASTLY FOG POTENTIAL. WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW AT 925MB...ITS
HARD TO SEE MUCH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART
EVEN WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE OF THE COLD EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. MUCH
OF TODAYS WARMING WILL PROBABLY GO INTO WARMING THE SNOWPACK VERSUS
RELEASING MOISTURE FROM IT. THUS...BELIEVE THE FOG CONCERN IS LOW
AND TRIMMED IT TO MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COME IN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTSCONCERNS...
1. WILL IT PRECIPITATE AT ALL THIS WEEKEND? IF SO WHAT TYPE.
2. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
3. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
A LOT HAS CHANGED MODEL WISE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 3 DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. NOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND TO
MOSTLY END UP DRY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF.
EVEN THE 06.00Z NAM WAITS UNTIL A BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT THATS IT.
WHATS HAPPENED IS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT MORE AND MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE AREA...PRIMARILY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS HARD TO COME BY. THE
BIGGEST THING WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAUSED BY A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT...WHICH IS A BIG IF GIVEN THAT THE 925MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND GULF OF MEXICO RETURN IS POINTED MORE TOWARDS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND QUESTIONS ON
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WEAK FORCING...FIGURE DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPES.
REGARDING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES...925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4C WARMER ON
SATURDAY...SO ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUN WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...40S ARE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AS SUGGESTED BY 06.00Z MAV/MET/REGIONAL
CANADIAN/ECMWF GUIDANCE. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA UP. 30S
SEEM LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ALBEDO WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND
POSSIBLY 20S OVER TAYLOR COUNTY INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS TAKE THEIR SWEET TIME COOLING IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE LOW.
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION
COMES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH FORMS PRECIPITATION MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR THIS. MAY
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT IN LATER FORECASTS WHICH
COULD MODULATE THE EXPECTED SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER 925MB AIR FLOWS IN.
THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY...WITH COOLING
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ABOUT
HOW MUCH COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE ROBUST AND POSSIBLE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WORTHY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY APPEAR DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT CAN RETURN
BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...THIS WAVE SHOULD
ONLY PRODUCE A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
611 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUGGESTING THE LLVL INVERSION IS
STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY THUS DECOUPLING THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH
THE SURFACE. AS CURRENT OBS ARE PARALLELING FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIRLY WELL...FELT JUSTIFIED IN CANCELING THE WARNING EARLY FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME IN THE PANHANDLE.
LEFT THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND CONVERSE COUNTY IN THE WARNING UNTIL
8 PM AS THESE AREAS COULD STILL SEE SOME RESIDUAL MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY BRING GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHOW THE HIGH WIND EVENT IS
A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS AROUND
CONVERSE COUNTY...AND PLATTE COUNTY HAVE BEEN AROUND 85 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN DOUGLAS HAS SEEN GUSTS JUST UNDER 80 MPH AN HOUR
OR SO AGO. BELIEVE THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS BL MIXING. CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK
GOOD AND ARE ON TRACK. ADDED NIOBRARA COUNTY TO THE WARNING WITH
LUSK GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH...AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAWLINS AND LARAMIE ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE WARNING OUT FOR
NOW SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH THE HOURLY 40 MPH CRITERIA
SHORTLY.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE
WARNING IS GOOD FOR 8 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW
ZONES DEPENDING ON TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE HRRR HAS VERIFIED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS GUSTS LOWERING BELOW 45 MPH BETWEEN 7 TO 9
PM. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS INCREASE FOR A BRIEF
TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASING LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. MODELS INDICATE SOME RAIN
AND SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING AND DURING MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POP UP TO 60 PERCENT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY EXPECTED RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A WEAK MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS FROM MOST MODELS ARE MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL BE LOWER OVER THE PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BELOW 8K FEET AGL. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS ESTABLISHES
A REX BLOCK AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SAT BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE HARD
TO COME BY IN THIS PATTERN...SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR PCPN
INTO THE WEEKEND. H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2 TO 0 C WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED IN NEBRASKA AND 30
TO 40 KTS FOR WYOMING. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND
HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-104-106-
107-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
235 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY TO THE DELMARVA COAST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION...AND USHERING IN FRIGID AIR TO
END THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS OF 235 AM EST...A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS ONGOING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
NEAR TERM PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING SO FAR THIS MORNING
THANKS TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EVIDENT ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
TEENS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
30 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
THE LATEST 05Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY MAY
START TO WANE BY AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO. BY THIS TIME...UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR AREAS
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 90 AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE BEST
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SO FAR OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE THE NYC AREA AND NORTH JERSEY. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTING EASTWARD...THE LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
TO TAPER OFF FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MORNING MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER...MORE SNOW WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON...AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 HPA. ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW STEADY SNOW
TO BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTN. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...IT
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR P-TYPE TO FALL
ENTIRELY AS SNOW...EVEN FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE THERE WAS
INITIALLY SOME CONCERN FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOWFALL /ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES/ LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...MORE STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS
EVENT SO FAR...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY TODAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
A FEW SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAY REACH 30-31...BUT SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING. JUST TEENS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS EVERYWHERE LOOK TO FALL TONIGHT THANKS TO
STREGHTENING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS AT LOW LEVELS...WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
THROUGH 600 AM TUESDAY MORNING...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LARGELY BE IN AGREEMENT BOTH OVER THE PAST
RUNS...AND AMONG THEMSELVES WITH ONLY MODEST SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLES. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NAM...WHICH IS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER AND DISCARDED AS IT EXHIBITS KNOWN BIASES.
BY MORNING THE SFC LOW IS CENTER JUMPING THOUGH THE MTNS OF
WVA/VA AS A SHARPENING 500 HPA SHORT WV BEGINS ACCELERATING THE
PROCESS OF CYCLOGENISUS. DURING MON THE EVENT TRANSITIONS FROM A
LONG TERM OVERRUNNING DRIVEN STEADY LIGHT TO OCNL MODERATE
SNOW...INTO A FULL FLEDGED COASTAL LOW. AS SUCH UVM INCREASES AS
AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM...THEN COLD
CONVEYER BELTS AS WELL AS UVM ASSOC WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WV
AND DEEPENING COAST LOW. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TWRD
DAYBREAK MON HWVR REMAIN GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR AT BEST.
OVERALL INTENSITY AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS THE
500HPA TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
DEEPENS...BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE TWRD DAYBREAK
TUES.
AS THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WILL ONLY
NUDGE GRIDS WITH BLENDING IN OF DATA FROM OVERNIGHT GFS/ECMWF.
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD WITH NO CHANGES. ALL WARNINGS LOOK GOOD WITH NO
CHANGES EXPECTED.
TUESDAY THIS COASTAL LOW AND ITS SHORT WV DEPART AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS S FROM THE PARENT SFC HIGH OVER ONT/QB...BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR COLD WC TUE INTO TUE NT.
WED IN THE FAST ZONAL 500HPA FLOW OVER THE N TIER OF THE USA...A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION...THEN QUICKLY CARVE
OUT A TROF OVER THE GRTLKS. THE NEXT CLIPPER SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE
IN THE UPR GRTLKS WED MRNG...AND DIVES SE...DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND
REACHING PA BY 12UTC THU. CLOUDS WILL INCR WED ACROSS THE FCA...WITH
-SN REACHING THE W AREAS BY LATE AFTN...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
RGN OVERNIGHT. AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING WITH MORE
AFTWRDS. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG 500HPA TROF...AND CLIPPER LOW IMPACT REGION THU WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT FIRST. BUT AS
THE SFC LOW BOMBS OFFSHORE...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP...AND TEMPS
WILL PLUNGE DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG...AS ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO
REGION ON STRONG N WNDS. THU NT 18-22HPA SFC WIND GRADIENT ACROSS
NYS. WIND CHILL FLAGS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
THE GFS KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE SNOW
AMOUNTS/QPF CONSIDERABLY OVER ECMWF. GFS PLUMES HAVE 0.02-0.4 LIQ
EQ QPF WITH ONE OUTLIER OF 0.6. BUT THERE`S PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
HOW THAT EVOLVES AND CHC -SN OR -SNSH THU AND THU NT WILL SUFFICE.
FRI AND FRI NT WILL BE FAIR AS ARCTIC HIGH CRESTS ACROSS QB AND
NE...BUT QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST FRI NT. WITH SFC WINDS MAINLY N
ANY LK ONTARIO LES WILL BE SHORT MULTIBANDS WELL TO OUR WEST.
SAT ANOTHER POWERFUL CLIPPER (ECMWF) IMPACTS THE FCA WITH MORE
-SHSN...THEN IS FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER AIR. THERE REMAINS SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS TAKES THIS CLIPPER AND ITS
PCPN TO OUT SOUTH...ONLY LEAVING US THE FRIGID AIR AND 1000-500
DM THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 480 OR S DM OVER THE FCA NEXT WEEKEND.
BRRR.
FOR THE EFP HPC ONLY HAS CHC POPS WITH THU EVENT AND LEANS TOTALLY
TWRD GFS SOLUTION BYND THAT. WILL BLEND HPC/GFS/ECMWF IN EFP
THINKING WITH CHC SN THU INTO FRI AM WITH FIRST CLIPPER. GEN FAIR
AND DRY CONDS FRI WITH INCR CLOUDS FRI NT. WILL LEAN TWRD A HYBRID
SOLUTION SAT WITH STRONG WINDS IN CAA AND CHC -SHSN WHETHER IS
WITH 2ND CLIPPER OR SHORT WVS OR TRRN ENHANCED THERE WILL BE SOME
-SHSN AROUND.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...BECOMING
FRIGID/VERY WELL BLO NORMAL BY THE END OF EFP.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOW HAS YET TO BEGIN AT KPOU...BUT LOOKS TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
WITHIN SNOWFALL...IFR VSBY OF 1 TO 2 SM WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
CIGS VARYING BETWEEN 900 FEET AND 4000 FEET...DEPENDING ON SNOW
INTENSITY. MOST SITES WILL SEE CIGS GENERALLY ON THE LOWER END OF
THE RANGE FOR 08Z-12Z.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW FOR SUNDAY MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE. HAVE RAISED FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS
IN THE MORNING AT ALL SITES SHOWING THE BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY...SNOWFALL WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED FOR
SUN AFTN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM A N-NE DIRECTION FOR
ALL SITES. N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10 KTS ON SUNDAY
FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PERIODS OF
SN.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE
WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
244 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE LOW. THE 00 UTC SOUNDING OUT OF KDVN IS VERY DRY
ABOVE 900 MB. MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE
CONFINED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WISCONSIN.
THEREFORE...LOWER CLOUD COVER (OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT) DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR MASS TO
OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SAG BACK SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE FOR THE SURFACE LOW. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...IT APPEARS THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT RIGHT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG.
I HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
AS IT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* IFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AFT 11Z...AND COULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
* PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE...REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY FURTHER
TOWARDS IFR VSBYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGER THRU MID-
MORNING.
* WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS THEN QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST THEN JUST EAST
OF NORTH AT 010 DEG AFTER 21Z.
* RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 21Z BUT LIMITED COVERAGE
AND LIGHT INTENSITY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CIRRUS DECK SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SURFACE OBS NOT INDICATING ANY STARTUS AT THIS TIME.
SOME REDUCED VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AIRFIELDS...WITH MANY SITES WEST OF ORD/MDW ALREADY REDUCED TO
2-3SM. EXPECT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL...ADDTL SITES WILL SEE
VSBYS REDUCED. AIRFIELDS WEST OF ORD/MDW WILL LIKELY SEE FOG BRING
VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1SM BY 10-11Z...AND ORD/MDW WILL BE DOWN TO
2-3SM. MEANWHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP...AND SPREAD IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH
MID-MORNING. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME CALM FROM THE CURRENT LGT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SETUP.
THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN LGT OR LESS THAN 8KT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO ARND 10KT AND GUSTS
NEARING 16-18KT. WITH BETTER MIXING ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVE...THE STRATUS DECK AND REDUCED VSBYS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PLAYING OUT HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF DRIZZLE AS THEIR REMAINS AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL
AND WILL CARRY VCSH AT THIS TIME.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW-MEDIUM IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. LOW IN REACHING LIFR. LOW IN
START TIME AND DURATION.
* LOW IN IFR VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING AND DURATION OF FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
* LOW-MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT HIGH THAT IF ANY OCCURS
PRIOR TO 21Z SUNDAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND LIQUID.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...MVFR AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. NORTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR DURING THE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW
OR SLEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
202 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FASTER AND REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE INCREASED AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTER GRADIENT...GUSTING TO 25KT
AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PERSISTED BETWEEN
10-20KT. AS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT SLIDES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT BY MID-AFTERNOON FOR
THE NORTHERN IL NEARSHORE WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUN
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ICE COVERAGE REMAINS. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP MENTION OF WAVES OUT OF THE NEARSHORE PRODUCT BUT MAY NEED
TO ADD WAVES BACK IN DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE ICE IS LATER
TODAY.
WITH COLDER AIR SLIDING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS
MAY AT TIMES GUST TO 30KT THIS EVENING. BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
WINDS TO BE BETWEEN 20-25KT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND WILL BRING A STEADY DECREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE...BEFORE TURNING WEST TO NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...2 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM SUNDAY
TO 10 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
203 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE LOW. THE 00 UTC SOUNDING OUT OF KDVN IS VERY DRY
ABOVE 900 MB. MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE
CONFINED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WISCONSIN.
THEREFORE...LOWER CLOUD COVER (OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT) DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR MASS TO
OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SAG BACK SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE FOR THE SURFACE LOW. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...IT APPEARS THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT RIGHT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG.
I HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
AS IT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 10Z. THEN PERSIST
THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY FOG WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...REDUCING VSBYS TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY FURTHER TOWARDS IFR VSBYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND LINGER THRU MID-MORNING.
* WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS THEN QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST THEN JUST EAST
OF NORTH AT 010 DEG AFTER 21Z.
* DRIZZLE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD BE PATCHY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 21Z BUT LIMITED COVERAGE AND LIGHT
INTENSITY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CIRRUS DECK SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SURFACE OBS NOT INDICATING ANY STARTUS AT THIS TIME.
SOME REDUCED VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AIRFIELDS...WITH MANY SITES WEST OF ORD/MDW ALREADY REDUCED TO
2-3SM. EXPECT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL...ADDTL SITES WILL SEE
VSBYS REDUCED. AIRFIELDS WEST OF ORD/MDW WILL LIKELY SEE FOG BRING
VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1SM BY 10-11Z...AND ORD/MDW WILL BE DOWN TO
2-3SM. MEANWHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP...AND SPREAD IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH
MID-MORNING. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME CALM FROM THE CURRENT LGT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SETUP.
THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN LGT OR LESS THAN 8KT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO ARND 10KT AND GUSTS
NEARING 16-18KT. WITH BETTER MIXING ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVE...THE STRATUS DECK AND REDUCED VSBYS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PLAYING OUT HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF DRIZZLE AS THEIR REMAINS AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL
AND WILL CARRY VCSH AT THIS TIME.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN IFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING. LOW-MEDIUM IN REACHING
LIFR. LOW-MEDIUM IN START TIME AND DURATION.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN IFR VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING AND DURATION OF FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
* LOW-MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT HIGH THAT IF ANY OCCURS
PRIOR TO 21Z SUNDAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND LIQUID.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...MVFR AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. NORTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR DURING THE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW
OR SLEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
202 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH FASTER AND REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE INCREASED AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTER GRADIENT...GUSTING TO 25KT
AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PERSISTED BETWEEN
10-20KT. AS THE TIGHTER GRADIENT SLIDES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT BY MID-AFTERNOON FOR
THE NORTHERN IL NEARSHORE WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUN
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ICE COVERAGE REMAINS. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP MENTION OF WAVES OUT OF THE NEARSHORE PRODUCT BUT MAY NEED
TO ADD WAVES BACK IN DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE ICE IS LATER
TODAY.
WITH COLDER AIR SLIDING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS
MAY AT TIMES GUST TO 30KT THIS EVENING. BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
WINDS TO BE BETWEEN 20-25KT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND WILL BRING A STEADY DECREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE...BEFORE TURNING WEST TO NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1158 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...942 PM CST
IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE LOW. THE 00 UTC SOUNDING OUT OF KDVN IS VERY DRY
ABOVE 900 MB. MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE
CONFINED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WISCONSIN.
THEREFORE...LOWER CLOUD COVER (OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT) DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR MASS TO
OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SAG BACK SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE FOR THE SURFACE LOW. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...IT APPEARS THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 30S. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT RIGHT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG.
I HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
AS IT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 10Z. THEN PERSIST
THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY FOG WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...REDUCING VSBYS TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY FURTHER TOWARDS IFR VSBYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND LINGER THRU MID-MORNING.
* WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS THEN QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST THEN JUST EAST
OF NORTH AT 010 DEG AFTER 21Z.
* DRIZZLE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD BE PATCHY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 21Z BUT LIMITED COVERAGE AND LIGHT
INTENSITY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CIRRUS DECK SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SURFACE OBS NOT INDICATING ANY STARTUS AT THIS TIME.
SOME REDUCED VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AIRFIELDS...WITH MANY SITES WEST OF ORD/MDW ALREADY REDUCED TO
2-3SM. EXPECT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL...ADDTL SITES WILL SEE
VSBYS REDUCED. AIRFIELDS WEST OF ORD/MDW WILL LIKELY SEE FOG BRING
VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1SM BY 10-11Z...AND ORD/MDW WILL BE DOWN TO
2-3SM. MEANWHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP...AND SPREAD IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN REDUCED THROUGH
MID-MORNING. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME CALM FROM THE CURRENT LGT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SETUP.
THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN LGT OR LESS THAN 8KT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO ARND 10KT AND GUSTS
NEARING 16-18KT. WITH BETTER MIXING ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVE...THE STRATUS DECK AND REDUCED VSBYS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY.
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PLAYING OUT HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF DRIZZLE AS THEIR REMAINS AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL
AND WILL CARRY VCSH AT THIS TIME.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN IFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING. LOW-MEDIUM IN REACHING
LIFR. LOW-MEDIUM IN START TIME AND DURATION.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN IFR VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING AND DURATION OF FOG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
* LOW-MEDIUM ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT HIGH THAT IF ANY OCCURS
PRIOR TO 21Z SUNDAY IT WILL BE LIGHT AND LIQUID.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...MVFR AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. NORTH
WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR DURING THE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW
OR SLEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA BEHIND THIS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
PATTERN REMAINS WARM AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY. WHILE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WE PROBABLY WONT SEE RECORD
VALUES AS WAA WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL
STILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 70 TODAY AND MONDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NW
GRADIENT AND RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT BREEZY NW
WINDS (GUSTS 20-30 MPH) TODAY. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING MONDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...AND WITH INCREASING
MIXING WOLD ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY (GUSTS 20-25
MPH).
TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CWA TUESDAY AND OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TUESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOW-
MID 60S. POSITION AND TIMING OF THE H3 JET AHEAD OF THIS MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
ADVERTISED BY GFS/ECMWF/NAM. WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK LIFT FURTHER
EAST IN OUR CWA...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND WEST
OF CO BORDER BASED ON BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL...AND INCLUDED MENTION
OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FURTHER EAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE REGION WITH INCREASING CAA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THIS WE
WILL PROBABLY STILL ONLY SEE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DROP TO 30-35
RANGE DUE TO LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
LIQUID PRECIP OR SNOW EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE MEASURABLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF MOVES SOUTH THRU THE ROCKIES...AND
NORTHERN TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ON INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE DOES CONTINUE TO
BE VERY LIMITED AS THE FORMING CUTOFF SYSTEM TRAVERSES AREA. FOCUS
OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN COLORADO AS LIFT PROVIDED
BY LOW...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
BEHIND TROUGH...GIVING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DUE TO DAYTIME
PASSAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...COULD
AFFORD SOME LOCALES A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY MIXING WITH LIGHT
TRAIN AT TIMES.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST
THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THIS TIME WILL AID IN WARM UP W/ DECENT SSW FLOW.
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND...MODEL TREND REMAINS
HAVING BROAD H5 RIDGE TO WEST WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THRU AREA DURING THE SO PLAN ON KEEPING ANY PRECIP AT THIS
TIME NEAR SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS...WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING MAIN P-TYPE
DUE TO DAYTIME PASSAGE.
FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50-60F RANGE WITH ONLY WEDNESDAY
LOOKING NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S WITH SYSTEM PASSAGE AND CAA WITH
ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN RIDGE INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE 20S WHICH WILL STILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY 5-6
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS SOME IN THE
FIRST 6 HOURS. THE BIGGER INCREASE IN THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
WE COULD SEE MARGINAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. WITH NW FLOW TODAY AND TD VALUES
TENDING TO HOLD UP WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL LOWER TD VALUES IN COLORADO THAT COULD ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
FROM THE WEST. INCREASED MIXING IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD ALSO RESULT
IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MONDAY...BUT
STILL HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT. WITH BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS 20-30
MPH)...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY FUELS THE
SITUATION BEARS MONITORING. RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT I WILL KEEP MENTION OF ELEVATED THREAT IN
HWO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM LAST EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HAS TURNED OVER TO LIGHT -SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA AS TEMPS HAVE COOLED BLO -10C IN THE LOWEST 2KFT OF THE
AIRMASS PER RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THERE IS ANY REMAINING -FZDZ OVER SE
SECTIONS IT SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALLOWING
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
NE FLOW AND TEMPS TO NEAR -15C WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KFT OF ATMOSPHERE
WILL FAVOR 4 WRN COUNTIES AND WRN MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES FOR LIGHT LES
TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR BESIDES FAIRLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVERSION WITHIN LOWEST 3KFT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH FOR AREAS BEST AIDED BY
UPSLOPE NE FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TONIGHT. NAM SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE
SHALLOWING OUT BLO LOWEST 2KFT FM SFC...BUT WITH TEMP AT INVERSION
BASE OF -13 TO -14C...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT LES/FLURRIES
OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE NE TO N FLOW AREAS. STILL
WOULDN/T EXPECT ACCUMULATION ANY MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. WITH LIGHT
ERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO AT SOME OF
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. OVER THE WEST HALF AND SOUTH CENTRAL...TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO INLAND TO 10F OR HIGHER
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
MUCH OF THE FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE COLD AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM A HIGH SLIDING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH 925-900MB TEMPS AROUND -12C...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT
THINK THE LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AS WINDS WEAKEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR
APPEARS TO START WORKING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD AT LEAST BREAK UP
SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE LAKE/TERRAIN INFLUENCES OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DID LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES WORK BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
TUESDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES
INTO THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
WIND.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COME ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
REDEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AN INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION (AIDED
BY MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION). OVERALL...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORCING (ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH LARGELY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF LIKELY VALUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS (DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND WHETHER THEY STAY
SOUTH OF OR MOVE THROUGH THE CWA)...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 0.1-0.2 INCH OF QPF. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...AS MUCH OF THE FORCING RIGHT NOW IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
DGZ AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL 13-15 TO 1 FOR
NOW...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO 1-3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA
UNDER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C TUESDAY
NIGHT TO -22C WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8KFT) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELTS...QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS/SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA) WHERE THE LONGEST ICE FREE FETCH
IS LOCATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE
ICE AROUND ISLE ROYALE SHORTING THE FETCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE
FORCING WILL BE IN THE DGZ DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT...THINK THE STRONG WINDS (25-35KTS) WILL FRACTURE THE FLAKES
AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. BUT THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEIGHTENED WORDING IN
THE HWO. EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY...AS AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO)...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST (INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO) AND COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR
WHAT OCCURRED A FEW MORNINGS AGO (-20S IN THE COLD SPOTS) IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN (RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA) SO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE DOMINANT PTYPE AT THE TAF SITES MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES TOWARD
MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCMX. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY EASE AT KSAW AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. FOR THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO AFFECT
ALL THE TAF SITES AT TIME...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX AS THE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND NE WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE WRN HALF OF THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOLID WINDS TO 30 KT WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING
GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS MORNING. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY FOR WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KT THROUGH THE PD. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT THEN WINDS
RAMP UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT. NORTH WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN BLO GALES ON THU BUT WILL REMAIN UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM LAST EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HAS TURNED OVER TO LIGHT -SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA AS TEMPS HAVE COOLED BLO -10C IN THE LOWEST 2KFT OF THE
AIRMASS PER RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THERE IS ANY REMAINING -FZDZ OVER SE
SECTIONS IT SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALLOWING
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
NE FLOW AND TEMPS TO NEAR -15C WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KFT OF ATMOSPHERE
WILL FAVOR 4 WRN COUNTIES AND WRN MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES FOR LIGHT LES
TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR BESIDES FAIRLY MARGINALLY INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVERSION WITHIN LOWEST 3KFT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH FOR AREAS BEST AIDED BY
UPSLOPE NE FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TONIGHT. NAM SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE
SHALLOWING OUT BLO LOWEST 2KFT FM SFC...BUT WITH TEMP AT INVERSION
BASE OF -13 TO -14C...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT LES/FLURRIES
OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE NE TO N FLOW AREAS. STILL
WOULDN/T EXPECT ACCUMULATION ANY MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. WITH LIGHT
ERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO AT SOME OF
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. OVER THE WEST HALF AND SOUTH CENTRAL...TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO INLAND TO 10F OR HIGHER
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
MUCH OF THE FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE COLD AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM A HIGH SLIDING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH 925-900MB TEMPS AROUND -12C...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT
THINK THE LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AS WINDS WEAKEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR
APPEARS TO START WORKING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD AT LEAST BREAK UP
SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE LAKE/TERRAIN INFLUENCES OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DID LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES WORK BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
TUESDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES
INTO THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
WIND.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COME ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
REDEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AN INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION (AIDED
BY MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION). OVERALL...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORCING (ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH LARGELY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF LIKELY VALUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS (DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND WHETHER THEY STAY
SOUTH OF OR MOVE THROUGH THE CWA)...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 0.1-0.2 INCH OF QPF. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...AS MUCH OF THE FORCING RIGHT NOW IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
DGZ AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL 13-15 TO 1 FOR
NOW...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO 1-3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA
UNDER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C TUESDAY
NIGHT TO -22C WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8KFT) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELTS...QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS/SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA) WHERE THE LONGEST ICE FREE FETCH
IS LOCATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE
ICE AROUND ISLE ROYALE SHORTING THE FETCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE
FORCING WILL BE IN THE DGZ DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT...THINK THE STRONG WINDS (25-35KTS) WILL FRACTURE THE FLAKES
AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. BUT THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEIGHTENED WORDING IN
THE HWO. EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY...AS AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO)...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST (INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO) AND COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR
WHAT OCCURRED A FEW MORNINGS AGO (-20S IN THE COLD SPOTS) IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN (RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA) SO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE DOMINANT PTYPE AT THE TAF SITES MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES TOWARD
MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCMX. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY EASE AT KSAW AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. FOR THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO AFFECT
ALL THE TAF SITES AT TIME...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX AS THE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND NE WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE WRN HALF OF THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOLID WINDS TO 30 KT WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING
GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS MORNING. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY FOR WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KT THROUGH THE PD. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT THEN WINDS
RAMP UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT. NORTH WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN BLO GALES ON THU BUT WILL REMAIN UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1240 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED TWO SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
MINNESOTA/CANADA BORDER...AND WAS PRODUCING SOME 1-2MI VISIBILITY
SNOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE SECOND WAS LOCATED
OVER WYOMING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIP...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE UPPER MINNESOTA RIVER
VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE GFS/NAM/SREF ARE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH.
TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT
THE PRECIP TYPE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TOGETHER WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A MIXTURE
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INITIALLY. AS THIS WARM LAYER COOLS...EXPECT
A TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW...FINALLY ENDING WITH MAINLY SNOW.
HOWEVER ICE CRYSTALS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN CWA. CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD RATHER SEE HOW THE CAMS HANDLE THIS AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIP...AND MAY NEED AN ADVISORY IF LIGHT ICING DOES INDEED COME TO
FRUITION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FOSTER MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND THEN A TRANSITION
TO WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL LEAVE
THE LOCAL AREA IN A SOMEWHAT BENIGN WEATHER REGIME.
SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERRIDES THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL DENDRITIC
LAYER WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE AN OVERALL DRY BUT RELATIVELY CLOUDY DAY IN
BETWEEN WAVES...WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE AMOUNT OF MILD AIR PULLED INTO THE REGION WILL MEAN
FREEZING PRECIPITATION ISSUES WILL AGAIN BE OF CONCERN. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE LOWS FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW...WITH THURSDAY
HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS RETURN FLOW TO SETUP
FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND ACCORDINGLY...WITH LOWER 20S/30S
ANTICIPATED.
A FAINT TROUGH IS DEPICTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE JUST REDUCED TEMPS A BIT INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
00Z RAOB AT MPX WAS VERY DRY IN A LARGE LAYER FROM 900MB-500MB.
SLOWLY THE COLUMN IS BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND
SOME RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.
MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL INDICATE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES AT
800MB OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. IN TERMS OF EXPECTATIONS WITH THE
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...GUIDANCE HAS TURNED MORE OPTIMISTIC AND
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTHWEST. DOWNPLAYED
PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCPET RWF WHICH IS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR/RAP REALLY BACKED OFF
ON THE TIMING OF SUB 3K FT CEILINGS TONIGHT...SO PUSHED THOSE BACK
AT ALL SITES. ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES.
KMSP...HRRR/RAP BOTH INDICATE THE PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH OF MSP
AND INDICATED AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. CPD`S
LINE UP WELL WITH 925MB RH FIELDS AND SHOW A DRY WEDGE THROUGH
EASTERN MN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VIS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY
AROUND 5SM MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS PUSHING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS BEYOND 15Z...WILL SEE IF
THIS SIGNAL IS CONSISTENLY SHOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL
UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1004 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WARM SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A DRY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN SOME AREAS
BOTH DAYS. A PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN REGIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY.
&&
.UPDATE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE OWENS VALLEY PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AT BISHOP AND THE VISIBILITY AT THE EASTERN SIERRA
REGIONAL AIRPORT QUICKLY TANKED TO 1/2 MILE. AREAS OF FOG WERE ADDED
IN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT TO THE OWENS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...THE MODELS DID A HORRIBLE JOB HANDLING THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS EVENING AND THE LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT DID MATERIALIZE AS A RESULT. THE EVENING
SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE CAME IN WITH A VERY MOIST PWAT OF 0.77 INCH
FOR JANUARY WHICH WAS UP CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 0.29 INCH REGISTERED
ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CLUE AS TO
WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON AND AS A RESULT BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST RADAR RETURNS, I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD IN LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH LIKELY THESE SHOULD FIZZLE OUT BY 2-4 AM - IF NOT EARLIER.
ELSEWHERE CHANGES INCLUDED TWEAKING SKY COVER TO ADD INTO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA AND ADJUSTING UP
DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE COME UP QUITE A BIT. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND EVEN WINDS STIRRING THINGS
UP THAT WE MAY STILL BE TOO COOL FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND I DID GO AHEAD
AND ADJUST THEM UP. OF FURTHER FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE
HOW WARM TO GO WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING TODAY`S RECORD WARMTH
IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO COOL OFF ALL
THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT NOR LOOSE THE MOISTURE THAT WORKED ON IN.
HOWEVER, I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES WITH THAT FOR THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AT 12 KTS OR LESS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 10K-12K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CIGS AS LOW AS 5K FEET OR SO ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
KBIH. ALTHOUGH SHRA- CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KBIH, THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
CREST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
10-12K FEET. A FEW AREAS IN NORTHERN MOHAVE AND NORTHEAST CLARK
COUNTIES MAY SEE A BRIEF SHRA- THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE SIERRA AND MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO THE OWENS VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, MODELS TAKE IT SOUTH
THROUGH UTAH AND ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON
THURSDAY. MODELS THEN TAKE IT WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...SALMEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WARM SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A DRY...SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN SOME AREAS
BOTH DAYS. A PACIFIC STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN REGIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY.
&&
.UPDATE...THE MODELS DID A HORRIBLE JOB HANDLING THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS EVENING AND THE LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT DID MATERIALIZE AS A RESULT. THE EVENING
SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE CAME IN WITH A VERY MOIST PWAT OF 0.77 INCH
FOR JANUARY WHICH WAS UP CONSIDERABLY FROM THE 0.29 INCH REGISTERED
ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CLUE AS TO
WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON AND AS A RESULT BASED ON THIS AND THE
LATEST RADAR RETURNS, I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD IN LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH LIKELY THESE SHOULD FIZZLE OUT BY 2-4 AM - IF NOT EARLIER.
ELSEWHERE CHANGES INCLUDED TWEAKING SKY COVER TO ADD INTO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA AND ADJUSTING UP
DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE COME UP QUITE A BIT. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND EVEN WINDS STIRRING THINGS
UP THAT WE MAY STILL BE TOO COOL FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND I DID GO AHEAD
AND ADJUST THEM UP. OF FURTHER FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE
HOW WARM TO GO WITH TEMPS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING TODAY`S RECORD WARMTH
IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO COOL OFF ALL
THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT NOR LOOSE THE MOISTURE THAT WORKED ON IN.
HOWEVER, I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES WITH THAT FOR THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AT 12 KTS OR LESS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 10K-12K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CIGS AS LOW AS 5K FEET OR SO ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
KBIH. ALTHOUGH SHRA- CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KBIH, THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
CREST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
10-12K FEET. A FEW AREAS IN NORTHERN MOHAVE AND NORTHEAST CLARK
COUNTIES MAY SEE A BRIEF SHRA- THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE SIERRA AND MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPILLING OVER INTO THE OWENS VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, MODELS TAKE IT SOUTH
THROUGH UTAH AND ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON
THURSDAY. MODELS THEN TAKE IT WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...SALMEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADD COUNTIES INTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
WHICH WILL FILL THE GAP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...STREAMING SOUTHEAST TO
WILLISTON...DICKINSON AND ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT KBIS ARE NOW AT FREEZING. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...RIDING OVER
THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE
OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS INDICATE POCKETS/AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO FILL IN THE GAP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH NOON CST SUNDAY. UPDATES TO THE
TEXT PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
TWO MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING...THE CURRENT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. NOT MUCH GOING ON IN
THE CURRENT ADVISORY...BUT AN AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ADVISORY AREA SHORTLY. COULD
STILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WE HAVE BEEN
GETTING RAIN THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY MOST AREAS WERE QUITE WARM
TODAY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO FALL. THINK PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
CRITICAL VALUES.
THE EXCEPTION IS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. PERSISTENT BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS DICKEY AND LAMOURE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HERE WERE MUCH COOLER TODAY AND OAKES IS
CURRENTLY RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN WITH 32 DEGREES. WILL ADD THESE TWO
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
LATEST RADAR INDICATING AN ENHANCED AREA OF REFLECTIVITIES FROM
WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY SOUTHEAST THROUGH BEULAH TO BISMARCK.
LATEST WEATHER CAMERAS AND REPORTS INDICATE PRECIPITATION UNDER
THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES IS REACHING THE GROUND. ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS SO FAR IN THIS LEADING BAND AND TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
ARE ABOVE FREEZING. DID EXPAND CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FROM BISMARCK DOWN TOWARDS ASHLEY AND ELLENDALE EARLY
THIS EVENING. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE ELLENDALE AND ASHLEY AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. IF THE EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION REACHES THE
GROUND IN THESE AREAS WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
OR FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AS AMOUNTS WOULD BE MAINLY TRACE THIS EVENING
AND THEN BY LATE EVENING THEY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BASED
ON UTILIZING THE WET BULB FOR MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. UPDATED
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND UTILIZED THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS
FORECAST FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WHICH BETTER CAPTURED
THE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA FROM 03 UTC THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND
ECMWF...18 UTC NAM AND 18-20 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF
2120 UTC CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE A TRANSITION THROUGH A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA IS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH IS GREATEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR AND 18-20 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING WITH 21 UTC TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL TO LIMIT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
WILL ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
THE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM INVOLVES PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY SHOULD KEEP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING QUIET.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP AND
EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BRING WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING THIS
TIME SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE...AND MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE JAMES VALLEY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL.
LOOKING AT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS WHEN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN...AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY MAINLY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST HRRR/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. IFR CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KJMS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD
INTO KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN BETWEEN 06-12Z. DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION. KEPT A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AT KISN AND KBIS.
KDIK APPEARS TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN...WHILE PRECIPITATION
HAS A HARD TIME MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT AND
BY SUNDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ009-010-
017>021-048-051.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ034>036-046-
047-050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
424 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TODAY THEN PULL A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. VERY WARM
AIR IS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGREES
ALREADY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA/OHIO. HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR TODAY(MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH) AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN ENOUGH TO SLOW
THE WARMING. THE HRRR SHOWS THE STRATUS FINALLY FILLING IN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD AROUND PRIOR TO
THAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST OVER THE LAST DAY AND HAVE DELAYED
THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW.
SNOWPACK WILL GRADUALLY START TO MELT TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
WATER TO BE RELEASED TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE GFS HAS REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE WARM AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TODAY
AND ALREADY HAS PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING BY SUNRISE. WENT MORE WITH
A NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR QPF WHICH HAS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF
TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WEST VIRGINIA. AS THE LOW SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...COLDER AIR IN PLACE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE PULLED
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THIS DOES CREATE A CONCERN FOR PRECIP TYPE
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NE AS EARLY AS 21Z AT ERI
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY 01Z. A WARM
LAYER OF AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS THE SURFACE STARTS TO COOL SO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT IS IN NE OH/NW PA BEFORE THE COLUMN
COOLS SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZING RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALTHOUGH ONE MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
THERE AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE WARM AIR IN THE COLUMN.
ALL SITES SHOULD BRIEFLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PULLED SOUTH BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.
DID LEAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY MORE COLD WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK
IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
FRONT WITH A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS PART OF
THE EVENT LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS. SOME QUESTION ON THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30...RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA...COLDER AIR WILL START COMING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS AROUND...MOISTURE IS
ADEQUATE...PLENTY OF COLD AIR AT 850 MB...-20C AND COLDER. WILL
MENTION A THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY FOR
ASHTABULA AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN ON
FRIDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER NW PA EARLY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT 05Z WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND OVC040 AT KERI AND
REMAINING ABOVE OVC120 ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY LATE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY. MOST PRECIP SUNDAY
SHOULD BE LIGHT. PUT DRIZZLE IN TAFS. COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
FREEZING PRECIP BEFORE 00Z AT KERI AND THROUGH THE EVENING
ELSEWHERE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NON VFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG IT WILL BE THE WEATHER
MAKER ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THEY SHOULD BE STRONGEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GET STRONGER BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
414 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW TOO
FAST INTO OUR AREA AND THIS RESULT IS HAVING CONSEQUENCES IN
TERMS OF FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE RAP MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE
DELAYED ANY THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A
WARM START THIS MORNING AND HOW WARM IT WAS YESTERDAY...HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND RAP TO COME UP WITH TODAYS HIGHS.
ULTIMATELY...HOW WARM IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND
EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPR LVL S/WV WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. AS THE LOW AND
FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF CWFA BEFORE TAPERING OFF. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ON MONDAY...LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL FORECAST CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN SHALLOW
CAA INTO THE REGION AND RELATIVELY WARM START IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE STEADYING OUT WHILE THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEE JUST A SMALL INCREASE IN HIGHS GIVEN CAA AND CLOUDY
SKIES.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WORK IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS
WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SETTLING IN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS WE GET INTO SOME
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOP A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 20S. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY DROP
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SO
WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING MORE COMMON BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1141 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LARGELY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISING SO DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED AND MAY
NOT EVEN OCCUR BY DAYBREAK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY...KEEPING SPREADS AROUND 10 DEGREES MOST PLACES. TEMPS MAY
FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOLDING STEADY
NEAR 40/LOWER 40S. RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO
HALF OF AN INCH. THE TEMPS/TD AND RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANYTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE WATER ISSUES. LIMITED RELEASE OF
ANY SNOWPACK WATER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND THE COLD AIR WILL REACH ERIE PA FIRST. AS
THE COLD AIR PRESSES SOUTHWARD THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE MAY ARRIVE BEFORE IT DOES ALOFT. CONFIDENCE AND
IMPACT NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES ARE LEFT
BY EVENING. LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED MOST PLACES...WITH
MAYBE 3 OR 4 INCHES FOR NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY MONDAY IN THE 20S. HAVE
KEPT THE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE LIKELY
GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
DOUBLE DIGITS. ANY CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN SWATH OF SNOW WITH IT LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NY STATE. HOWEVER A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.
NORTHERLY WINDS CROSSING THE LAKE WILL AT LEAST PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY NEXT WEEK
AND WATCH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER ON THE LAKE.
IF A LARGE ENOUGH CRACK OPENS UP WE COULD SEE A MORE MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS TO MAYBE LOWER 20S. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IF
SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY
DIPPING BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT 05Z WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND OVC040 AT KERI AND
REMAINING ABOVE OVC120 ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY LATE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY. MOST PRECIP SUNDAY
SHOULD BE LIGHT. PUT DRIZZLE IN TAFS. COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
FREEZING PRECIP BEFORE 00Z AT KERI AND THROUGH THE EVENING
ELSEWHERE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NON VFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
ERIE LATE SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS OHIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
306 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ONLY A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THE MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A
DROP IN DEW POINT...SOMETHING THAT SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...LIKELY TO WARMER LEVELS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE BEING POST FRONTAL. THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT MIXING THE GFS 875 MB
/A LEVEL SUPPORTED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS/
TEMPERATURES TO THE SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT. DESPITE THIS...AM A
BIT HESITANT TO GO STRAIGHT WITH THE HRRR FORECAST GIVEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE NOT LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS...BUT WILL STILL
GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE POST FRONTAL LOWER MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO SCOUR OUT LOW
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP COMPARED TO EARLIER EXPECTATIONS...BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A QUICK NORTHWARD EXPANSION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAKE A RETURN. THE NEXT...AND MUCH STRONGER...COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT
STILL LOOKS QUESTIONABLE...AND MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR AND TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME
MODERATION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THIS WARMUP FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 76 41 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 73 42 67 39 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 73 43 68 40 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 74 34 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 70 37 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 71 39 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 73 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 70 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
F10 74 42 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 69 42 71 41 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1126 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE DATA HAVE LOWERED MY CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE PESSIMISTIC...DEVELOPING IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT MANY
SITES...WHILE TIME/HEIGHT PLOT DATA FROM THE RUC/RAP AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE HRRR SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG RATHER THAN STRATUS.
THE HRRR IS PESSIMISTIC ON THE DVLPMT OF WIDESPREAD LOW
CIGS...KEEPING THIS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE OUACHITAS. I HEDGED THE
FORECAST WITH TEMPOS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER FAR SE OK / WESTERN AR WILL ALL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY MILD
NIGHT. FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK AND UPDATE WILL ADJUST FOR
OBSERVED TRENDS AND LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 72 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 46 72 42 67 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 50 71 43 68 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 42 73 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 47 68 37 59 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 47 68 39 57 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 46 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 46 70 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
F10 48 72 42 66 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 49 69 42 71 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES. MESO ANAL PLACES THE
WARM FRONT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER WHERE TEMPS DIP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SERVING UP SOME PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE NEAR TERM THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF THE SMALL PATCH OF LIGHT
RAIN THAT IT HAD CROSSING NRN PA. NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY
*GREATEST RISK OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY INTO THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE
ENERGY AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S...DRIVING A SFC-850 LOW
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FCST
TO REACH SW PA AND NRN WV BY 09/12Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. REDUCED
MEAN QPF BY 25% BASED ON RECENT INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION. THIS
KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GRIDDED 48-HOUR TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS DERIVED WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAIN
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FCST IS THE NWD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE. CONCERNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IT APPEARS THE RISK IS
MOST LIKELY TO THE DOWNSIDE (LESSER AMOUNTS) WITH A MORE ROBUST
WARM NOSE ALOFT POSSIBLY SURGING INTO NY STATE...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG I-80 TO THE NY BORDER. THE
NAM/SREF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON A WARMER SOLUTION WHICH CAN
LKLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK...ALTHOUGH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS OVER A LONG
DURATION (2 DAY PERIOD) REMAINS OVER THE FAR NCENTRAL AND NERN
ZONES INTO NY STATE...WHERE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
SFC LOW TRACK. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR WILL LKLY BE FILTERING SWD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THROUGH SRN NY INTO NRN PA AND UNDERCUTTING THE MARGINALLY WARMER
NOSE OF AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A FREEZING RAIN/ICE
THREAT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE 09Z SREF
APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON A SIGNAL FOR ICE ACCUM FROM THE SRN
POCONOS INTO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY WHICH WAS ALSO REFLECTED WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE LATEST WWD -- AND THEREFORE BUMPED UP FZRA AMTS
INTO THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
PROBABLY BE CONSIDERING A WINTER WX ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FCST WITH THIS EVENT IS AVG WITH MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.
PTYPES GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW/RAIN/MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO AND PIVOTS THROUGH
THE MID ATLC REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TREK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SHOULD BE COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE...THOUGH WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE
-16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO NEAR -10 IN THE NW MTNS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE
LOW. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN
TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH
OF THE PA/NY BORDER AT 04Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR OOZING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS AND
VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN /INVOF KBFD/.
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SNOW NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD TO KIPT AFTER 11Z
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. AN AREA OF STEADY...LIGHT
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW WILL EXPAND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
STAY MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
CIG HEIGHTS HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER END OF MVFR
AT KBFD...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THIS SAME RANGE TWD
DAYBREAK FOR KJST...KIPT AND KUNV. VFR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z SUNDAY BEFORE
DIPPING TO MVFR.
MENTIONED LLWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/
NE THROUGH KAOO...KUNV...AND KIPT AS THE AXIS OF A SWRLY LOW
LEVEL JET NOSES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW COLD AIR JUST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE...WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KBFD SUNDAY MORNING /AFT
12Z/...THEN WORKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY. LIFR IS
POSSIBLE AT KBFD BY 19Z SUNDAY AS STEADIER LIGHT PRECIP /LIGHT
RAIN OR ICE PELLETS/ DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD.
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN AIRFIELDS.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...PM SHSN POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1120 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GR LAKES. MESO ANAL PLACES THE
WARM FRONT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER WHERE TEMPS DIP TO
FREEZING OR BELOW AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SERVING UP SOME PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE NEAR TERM THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF THE SMALL PATCH OF LIGHT
RAIN THAT IT HAD CROSSING NRN PA. NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY
*GREATEST RISK OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY INTO THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE
ENERGY AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S...DRIVING A SFC-850 LOW
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FCST
TO REACH SW PA AND NRN WV BY 09/12Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
VA/NC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. REDUCED
MEAN QPF BY 25% BASED ON RECENT INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION. THIS
KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE GRIDDED 48-HOUR TOTAL SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS DERIVED WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAIN
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FCST IS THE NWD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE. CONCERNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IT APPEARS THE RISK IS
MOST LIKELY TO THE DOWNSIDE (LESSER AMOUNTS) WITH A MORE ROBUST
WARM NOSE ALOFT POSSIBLY SURGING INTO NY STATE...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG I-80 TO THE NY BORDER. THE
NAM/SREF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON A WARMER SOLUTION WHICH CAN
LKLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK...ALTHOUGH
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS OVER A LONG
DURATION (2 DAY PERIOD) REMAINS OVER THE FAR NCENTRAL AND NERN
ZONES INTO NY STATE...WHERE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
SFC LOW TRACK. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR WILL LKLY BE FILTERING SWD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THROUGH SRN NY INTO NRN PA AND UNDERCUTTING THE MARGINALLY WARMER
NOSE OF AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A FREEZING RAIN/ICE
THREAT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THE 09Z SREF
APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON A SIGNAL FOR ICE ACCUM FROM THE SRN
POCONOS INTO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY WHICH WAS ALSO REFLECTED WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE LATEST WWD -- AND THEREFORE BUMPED UP FZRA AMTS
INTO THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
PROBABLY BE CONSIDERING A WINTER WX ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FCST WITH THIS EVENT IS AVG WITH MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.
PTYPES GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW/RAIN/MIX TO ALL SNOW BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO AND PIVOTS THROUGH
THE MID ATLC REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TREK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SHOULD BE COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE...THOUGH WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE
-16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO NEAR -10 IN THE NW MTNS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE
LOW. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN
TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH
OF THE PA/NY BORDER AT 04Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR OOZING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS AND
VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN /INVOF KBFD/.
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SNOW NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD TO KIPT AFTER 11Z
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. AN AREA OF STEADY...LIGHT
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW WILL EXPAND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
STAY MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR FIRST THIS EVENING AT
KBFD...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT-DAYBREAK FOR KJST...KIPT AND KUNV. VFR
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY BEFORE DIPPING TO MVFR.
MENTIONED LLWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/
NE THROUGH KAOO.KUNV AND KIPT...AS THE AXIS OF A SWRLY LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW COLD AIR JUST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SD FROM NEW YORK STATE...WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KBFD SUNDAY MORNING /AFT 12Z/...THEN
WORKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY KBFD.
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...PM SHSN POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND A MIX OF STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS MIXING INCREASES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MOST AREAS. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/WARM/BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TAKING
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO THU-FRI...BENEATH AMPLIFYING WEST COAST
RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHALLOW AND DEEPER
FORCING PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
WELL WEST WITH THE CUT OFF LOW...POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN LOW...LIMITED TO 20-30S MAINLY WEST OF I-35. COOLER
HIGHS THU AND FRI...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 51 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 48 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 51 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 48 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 48 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 49 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 50 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 52 76 47 74 / - - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 51 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 51 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.AVIATION...
MODERATE STRENGTH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY.
FAIRLY PACKED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACK SIDE WILL MOVE
THROUGH KPVW AND KLBB WHILE A BAND OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND 50 KNOTS WITHIN A THOUSAND FEET OF THE GROUND PER LATEST
WEST TEXAS MESONET SODAR PROFILE AT REESE...KREE...PASSES
OVERHEAD. AMENDED EARLIER FOR WIND SHEAR...AND ARE ADJUSTING
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE KREE SODAR AND LATEST RAP TRENDS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WE EXPECT
THE BULK OF THE INITIAL JET TO PASS BY 10Z OR SO. SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS EVENING WITH A PUNCH
SOUTHWARD EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING
A BIT STRONGER SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH BOTH RAP AND NAM12
RUNS DEVELOPING A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST OVER 50 KNOTS BUT
WITH BETTER MIXED AIRMASS SHOULD AVOID WIND SHEAR WITH THIS EVENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR OTHERWISE EXPECTED. RMCQUEEN
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE INITIAL SHORTWV TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENEROUS PRECIP
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM WY/MT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT THEY
STILL WILL END UP MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO NO REAL TAP TO THE
COLD AIR SITTING NORTH OF THE US BORDER. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND DRY SFC AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE CAPROCK SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE NWRLY FLOW AROUND
THE BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL KEEP AMPLE DRY AIR
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES...FAVORING WARMER END OF GUIDANCE RANGE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING AN END TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SWD DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH 12Z RUNS
GENERALLY CONTINUING THE TREND OF BRINGING THIS ENERGY DOWN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD TWD BAJA CALIF AND KEEPING IT THERE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAVE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH MOVES SWD PAST COLORADO AND WRN
KANSAS. HOWEVER...PATTERN NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP. POST-
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE LIKELY TO MOVE IN PRETTY QUICKLY WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND WITH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY DIVING SWWD ATTM SEEMS WRN ZONES WILL FAVORED OVER CNTL AND
EAST. POPS NEAR OR JUST UNDER MOS BEST ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEN LOOKS FAIR BUT RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO RECENT WARM
WEATHER COURTESY OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTER OVER THE CONUS.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AS
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT SLOWLY IMPROVE AND GUST WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS RELAX. 20FT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT TO CREATE LIMITED BUT ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRIMARILY OFF THE CAPROCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 38 70 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
TULIA 40 71 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 40 72 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 42 74 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 41 74 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 44 74 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 44 75 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 42 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 44 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 43 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE REALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. 08.08Z RAP/HRRR AND 08.06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...BRINGING IT
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOME OF SOUTHEAST MN OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE...ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE...IN COLLABORATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA. END TIME IS 16Z FOR SIMPLICITY WITH
HAZARDS TO THE WEST BUT SOUTHEAST MN MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY 14Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TYPE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOISTURE STARVED...DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT ON 00Z MPX...ABR...BIS AND OAX. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABERDEEN TO REDWOOD
FALLS...DODGE CENTER AND WABASHA. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET THE RAIN THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. AIRMASS
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STILL PRETTY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 6-12C AND AIR TEMPERATURES
OF 30-34F. HOWEVER...NORTH OF I-94 AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS REFLECTED BY THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE BY LOW PRESSURE
NEAR CHICAGO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN MT.
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING
TO HOLD VISIBILITIES UP FROM WHAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE ALSO PRESENT ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 IN
WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTING FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
FIRST...THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA REMAINS
PROGGED TO SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF US...REACHING THE INTERSECTION POINT
OF IA...IL AND MO BY 18Z. WE DO SEE A LITTLE DPVA FROM IT...ENOUGH
TO LIKELY BRING THIS CONTINUOUS FEED OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. SECOND ISSUE AND JUST
AS IMPORTANT IS THIS DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE. BASICALLY THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO COME ON THIS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT ZONE...
PER THE RAP/HRRR AND 08.00Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF...LOOKS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AROUND I-90 BY 10Z...THEN SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
ONCE WE GET TO THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONTOGENESIS IS OUT OF HERE...
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF. BECAUSE THE DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30-50 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE MAXIMUM WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MORNING FOR WHERE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ARE GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 4C...PER THE 08.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP. THERE IS SOME
COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO DROP THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMP BELOW 4C BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THEREFORE...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR...DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THOSE AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S DURING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION...SO A GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR.
HAZARD CONSIDERATION...THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL COVER THE
GLAZE POTENTIAL. IF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES...ADVISORIES
WOULD BE ISSUED.
OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE LOW
STRATUS INCREASE AS INCREASING NORTHEAST 925MB-850MB WINDS PULL THE
STRATUS OVER WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. THOSE WINDS REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT SO
ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS TO HANG TOUGH. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING AND CLOUDS AROUND...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR HIGHS/LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS....
1. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TYPE.
2. WINDS WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. ARCTIC COLD SHOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
PIECE OF DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 08.00Z NAM...GFS...
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-90 TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. DECENT 285-300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS PROGGED...COMBINED WITH THE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 0.5 INCH ARE ALL FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THUS...HAVE RAISED CHANCES UP SOME NORTH OF I-90.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKE IT IS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WE COULD LOSE THE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE CONFIDENCE/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER. OVERALL...THIS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD COULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT. DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE 500MB PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. IN FACT...THE FLOW IS CLOSE TO BECOMING CROSS-POLAR. WHAT
THIS MEANS IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC ARCTIC COLD SHOTS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THEY BE.
THE FIRST ARCTIC COLD SHOT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD PRECEDE THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
WINDS AND COLD WILL BE THE STORY. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -18 TO -20C
BY 12Z THU ON A 25-40 KT WIND...SO WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME A FACTOR
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COMING IN HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
GUSTS 30 KT OR SO IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS. WE GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE COLD ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS WARM ADVECTION. THEN...THE ARCTIC
COLD IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS
SIMIALR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
ON SATURDAY BUT THESE MAY NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MVFR/IFR FOG CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
SFC LOW WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO TAF SITES...FOR SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRING. THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER
THE AREA AS WELL. VSBYS IN BR IN THE 2-5SM RANGE LATE THIS EVENING
AND APPEARS THESE VSBYS WILL GENERALLY HOLD THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE JUST NORTH/EAST OF KLSE
AND WITH SFC-900MB WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THESE
CLOUDS LOOKING TO ADVECT INTO THE KLSE/KRST AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SUNDAY...AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. WENT BACK TO A VCSH MENTION AT
KRST/KLSE 15Z-20Z WITH WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP. NORTH-NORTHEAST LOWER LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT PLENTY OF 925-850MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS PERSISTING.
HOWEVER...DRIER/COOLER SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SCOUR OUT
MUCH OF THE BR/HZ THRU THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TYPE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOISTURE STARVED...DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT ON 00Z MPX...ABR...BIS AND OAX. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABERDEEN TO REDWOOD
FALLS...DODGE CENTER AND WABASHA. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET THE RAIN THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. AIRMASS
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STILL PRETTY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 6-12C AND AIR TEMPERATURES
OF 30-34F. HOWEVER...NORTH OF I-94 AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS REFLECTED BY THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE BY LOW PRESSURE
NEAR CHICAGO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN MT.
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING
TO HOLD VISIBILITIES UP FROM WHAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE ALSO PRESENT ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 IN
WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTING FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
FIRST...THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA REMAINS
PROGGED TO SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF US...REACHING THE INTERSECTION POINT
OF IA...IL AND MO BY 18Z. WE DO SEE A LITTLE DPVA FROM IT...ENOUGH
TO LIKELY BRING THIS CONTINUOUS FEED OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. SECOND ISSUE AND JUST
AS IMPORTANT IS THIS DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE. BASICALLY THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO COME ON THIS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT ZONE...
PER THE RAP/HRRR AND 08.00Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF...LOOKS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AROUND I-90 BY 10Z...THEN SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
ONCE WE GET TO THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONTOGENESIS IS OUT OF HERE...
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF. BECAUSE THE DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30-50 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE MAXIMUM WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MORNING FOR WHERE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ARE GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 4C...PER THE 08.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP. THERE IS SOME
COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO DROP THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMP BELOW 4C BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THEREFORE...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR...DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THOSE AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S DURING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION...SO A GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR.
HAZARD CONSIDERATION...THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL COVER THE
GLAZE POTENTIAL. IF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES...ADVISORIES
WOULD BE ISSUED.
OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE LOW
STRATUS INCREASE AS INCREASING NORTHEAST 925MB-850MB WINDS PULL THE
STRATUS OVER WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. THOSE WINDS REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT SO
ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS TO HANG TOUGH. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING AND CLOUDS AROUND...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR HIGHS/LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS....
1. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TYPE.
2. WINDS WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. ARCTIC COLD SHOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
PIECE OF DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 08.00Z NAM...GFS...
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-90 TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. DECENT 285-300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS PROGGED...COMBINED WITH THE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 0.5 INCH ARE ALL FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THUS...HAVE RAISED CHANCES UP SOME NORTH OF I-90.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKE IT IS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WE COULD LOSE THE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE CONFIDENCE/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER. OVERALL...THIS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD COULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT. DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE 500MB PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. IN FACT...THE FLOW IS CLOSE TO BECOMING CROSS-POLAR. WHAT
THIS MEANS IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC ARCTIC COLD SHOTS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THEY BE.
THE FIRST ARCTIC COLD SHOT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD PRECEDE THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
WINDS AND COLD WILL BE THE STORY. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -18 TO -20C
BY 12Z THU ON A 25-40 KT WIND...SO WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME A FACTOR
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COMING IN HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
GUSTS 30 KT OR SO IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS. WE GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE COLD ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS WARM ADVECTION. THEN...THE ARCTIC
COLD IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS
SIMIALR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
ON SATURDAY BUT THESE MAY NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MVFR/IFR FOG CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
SFC LOW WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO TAF SITES...FOR SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRING. THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER
THE AREA AS WELL. VSBYS IN BR IN THE 2-5SM RANGE LATE THIS EVENING
AND APPEARS THESE VSBYS WILL GENERALLY HOLD THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE JUST NORTH/EAST OF KLSE
AND WITH SFC-900MB WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THESE
CLOUDS LOOKING TO ADVECT INTO THE KLSE/KRST AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SUNDAY...AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. WENT BACK TO A VCSH MENTION AT
KRST/KLSE 15Z-20Z WITH WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP. NORTH-NORTHEAST LOWER LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT PLENTY OF 925-850MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS PERSISTING.
HOWEVER...DRIER/COOLER SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SCOUR OUT
MUCH OF THE BR/HZ THRU THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1048 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUGGESTING THE LLVL INVERSION IS
STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY THUS DECOUPLING THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH
THE SURFACE. AS CURRENT OBS ARE PARALLELING FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIRLY WELL...FELT JUSTIFIED IN CANCELING THE WARNING EARLY FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME IN THE PANHANDLE.
LEFT THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND CONVERSE COUNTY IN THE WARNING UNTIL
8 PM AS THESE AREAS COULD STILL SEE SOME RESIDUAL MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY BRING GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHOW THE HIGH WIND EVENT IS
A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS AROUND
CONVERSE COUNTY...AND PLATTE COUNTY HAVE BEEN AROUND 85 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN DOUGLAS HAS SEEN GUSTS JUST UNDER 80 MPH AN HOUR
OR SO AGO. BELIEVE THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS BL MIXING. CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK
GOOD AND ARE ON TRACK. ADDED NIOBRARA COUNTY TO THE WARNING WITH
LUSK GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH...AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAWLINS AND LARAMIE ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE WARNING OUT FOR
NOW SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH THE HOURLY 40 MPH CRITERIA
SHORTLY.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE
WARNING IS GOOD FOR 8 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW
ZONES DEPENDING ON TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE HRRR HAS VERIFIED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS GUSTS LOWERING BELOW 45 MPH BETWEEN 7 TO 9
PM. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS INCREASE FOR A BRIEF
TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASING LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. MODELS INDICATE SOME RAIN
AND SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING AND DURING MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POP UP TO 60 PERCENT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY EXPECTED RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A WEAK MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS FROM MOST MODELS ARE MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL BE LOWER OVER THE PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BELOW 8K FEET AGL. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS ESTABLISHES
A REX BLOCK AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SAT BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE HARD
TO COME BY IN THIS PATTERN...SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR PCPN
INTO THE WEEKEND. H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2 TO 0 C WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS EXPECTED IN NEBRASKA AND 30
TO 40 KTS FOR WYOMING. SHOULD SEE A STEADY DECREASE IN WINDS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND
HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.AVIATION...08/12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS /MVFR CIGS/ WERE NOTED ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR
EARLY THIS MRNG. HRRR MODEL CONTS TO HANDLE TRENDS VERY WELL...KEEPING
A MAJORITY CLOUD DECK TO THE S OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL AND
N-CNTRL AR TODAY. COULD SEE SOME SCTD LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO NRN AR
LATER THIS MRNG...BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PD. MVFR
CONDS WL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INTO THE AFTN WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER. A CDFNT WL DROP SWD ACRS THE FA TNGT...WITH A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DRIFT SWD INTO NRN AR...
BUT APPEARS THIS WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
SEEN...BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN DOMINANT AS WINDS KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG FROM FORMING. THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THIS
REGION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NW...SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER...AT
LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH TEMPS JUST
OVER 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE FAR NW. CHANCES FOR
SEEING ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO BE LOWER IN THIS PART OF THE CWA.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO
AR...MOVING SE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
SEEN FOR MON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA.
THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FOR LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH SRLY
FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL WARM TEMPS SOME FOR WED...BUT A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE LATE WED. THIS FRONT MAY
BRING SOME PRECIP...BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOME RAIN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK LIMITED
ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN COLD AIR IMPACTS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STILL NO SIG CHGS TO THE OVERALL FCST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A
CDFNT WL BE SHIFTING S OF AR AT THE START OF THE PD...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCD HIGH PRES
RDG WL SLIDE ACRS AR THRU EARLY FRI THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA...
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS.
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER QUICK MOVG CLIPPER SYS
SEWD THRU THE AREA FRI NGT AND EARLY SAT. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
WITH THE ASSOCD CDFNT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WL BE NON-EXISTENT...
SO DRY CONDS WL PREVAIL.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
650 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2015
Update
.Synopsis...
A storm system moves through the region today and tonight bringing
heavy rain, gusty winds and potentially severe afternoon/evening
thunderstorms. Snow may cause travel difficulties for Sierra
passes tonight into Monday. Lingering showers Monday then drier
and warmer conditions return Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe weather in the Valley is looking more
favorable late this afternoon and early evening. The Storm
Prediction Center has the central and southern Sacramento and
northern San Joaquin valleys in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms. Latest HRRR Reflectivity projects some strong cells
developing on the east side of Valley around 4 pm behind the front.
Large hail and heavy rain are the main concerns. Models show shear
profile could be sufficient for tornado formation so we will have to
keep a close watch on things today. Main issue is if instability
levels will be high enough behind the front. Clearing skies and some
sun could provide this, if the timing is right. EK
.Discussion...
Quiet weather early this morning as a weak shortwave exits and a
much stronger and wetter system lies off the coast. Some patchy
morning fog and mist has developed, though this should lift later
this morning as the storm moves inland and clouds increase. Just a
few light showers currently showing up on radar over Shasta
County, while an area of warm sector precipitation is approaching
the coast. Southerly upslope flow could bring some scattered
showers this morning into the northern Sacramento Valley and
southern Cascades ahead of the main area of precipitation. Wind is
currently light southerly.
The upper level low off the coast will shift eastward today and
move inland tonight. Precipitation will spread from west to east
this morning, over the Coastal mountains and then across the
Valley by late morning. A strong area of diffluence will be
located over northern California by mid day. This will provide
significant lift, which coupled with a very moist plume and
instability will bring moderate to locally heavy rain for the
afternoon. The cold front looks like it will move into the Valley
and Delta around 3-4 pm, with the heaviest precipitation occurring
around that time for the Valley. Estimated Valley rainfall amounts
range from a half inch over the San Joaquin Valley to around 2 inches
over the northern Sacramento Valley. Locally higher amounts are
possible with heavy showers/thunderstorms. The mountains should see
an additional 1 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent.
Low and mid level shear with this system is impressive, and
strong thunderstorms could form this afternoon, especially with
and behind the cold front. There is the potential for hail and
severe weather, with strong low level southerly flow developing
late this afternoon. Models indicate shear levels could reach
levels which local research has correlated with tornado
development in the past, so there is some potential for tornadic
activity. A limiting factor is the cold front may push through too
late in the afternoon for clearing and further destabilization of
the atmosphere by solar heating. So strong instability may be
lacking.
There should be enough instability to continue chances of
thunderstorms through the evening and overnight as cold air aloft
moves across the region.
Heavier precipitation should reach the Sierra around noon-1 pm.
Good southwest upslope flow will enhance precipitation over the
Sierra and squeeze out much of the available moisture. Snow levels
initially will be above pass levels with moderate to heavy rain, but
will drop to around 7000 feet later afternoon and early evening as
colder air moves through. Heavy convection showers may also bring
the snow levels down some locally at times. Travel disruptions are
possible at pass levels tonight and into Monday, as snow levels
drop to around 6000 feet. The best timing for snow accumulation is
expected to be in the morning hours Monday, when precipitation is
still fairly strong and cooler air is moving through. Higher peaks
could see more than a foot of snow, while pass levels could see
around 6 to 10 inches.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through early Monday for
the Rim Fire Burn area, where debris flows and stream rises are
possible from the heavy rain.
The southerly surface gradient increases by this afternoon with
winds gusting up to 45 mph across the Valley. Strongest winds will
likely accompany the frontal passage. Winds will gradually
decrease this evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect between noon
and midnight.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger across the
region into Monday as a final short-wave in this series moves
through, then drier weather returns Tuesday with much warmer
temperatures. Temperatures rise to well above normal levels by
Wednesday as upper level ridging builds. North to east winds
develop and will begin to dry things out. Morning fog is possible,
especially in sheltered areas on the east side of the Valley and
over the Delta.
&&
A chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger across the
region into Monday as a final short-wave in this series moves
through, then drier northerly flow returns for Tuesday.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Medium range models similar in showing Rex block pattern over the
west coast through the extended period with strong high pressure
over the southwest U.S. and a low pressure system in the vicinity of
Baja. This will result in dry weather with above normal
temperatures for Norcal. Weak pressure gradients under the upper
ridge will bring generally light north and east winds from the
middle to the end of next week.
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly IFR ceilings with areas of fog in the central valley. LIFR
visibility this morning in the delta. Widespread IFR aft 18z thru
tonight as frontal system brings rain and continues low ceilings.
Increasing winds after 18z reaching sustained 20 knots plus with
gusts to over 40 knots valley and over 60 knots mountains.
Isolated thunderstorms possible most areas after about 20z.
Thunderstorm threat decreasing after 03z tonight.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm pst
monday above 6500 feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.
flash flood watch through late tonight motherlode...west slope
northern sierra nevada.
wind advisory from noon today to midnight pst tonight carquinez
strait and delta...central sacramento valley...motherlode...
northeast foothills/sacramento valley...northern sacramento
valley...northern san joaquin valley...southern sacramento
valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
419 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA BEHIND THIS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
PATTERN REMAINS WARM AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY. WHILE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WE PROBABLY WONT SEE RECORD
VALUES AS WAA WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL
STILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 70 TODAY AND MONDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NW
GRADIENT AND RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT BREEZY NW
WINDS (GUSTS 20-30 MPH) TODAY. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING MONDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...AND WITH INCREASING
MIXING WOLD ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY (GUSTS 20-25
MPH).
TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CWA TUESDAY AND OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TUESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOW-
MID 60S. POSITION AND TIMING OF THE H3 JET AHEAD OF THIS MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
ADVERTISED BY GFS/ECMWF/NAM. WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK LIFT FURTHER
EAST IN OUR CWA...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND WEST
OF CO BORDER BASED ON BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL...AND INCLUDED MENTION
OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FURTHER EAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE REGION WITH INCREASING CAA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THIS WE
WILL PROBABLY STILL ONLY SEE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DROP TO 30-35
RANGE DUE TO LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
LIQUID PRECIP OR SNOW EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE MEASURABLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF MOVES SOUTH THRU THE ROCKIES...AND
NORTHERN TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ON INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE DOES CONTINUE TO
BE VERY LIMITED AS THE FORMING CUTOFF SYSTEM TRAVERSES AREA. FOCUS
OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN COLORADO AS LIFT PROVIDED
BY LOW...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
BEHIND TROUGH...GIVING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DUE TO DAYTIME
PASSAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...COULD
AFFORD SOME LOCALES A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY MIXING WITH LIGHT
TRAIN AT TIMES.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST
THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THIS TIME WILL AID IN WARM UP W/ DECENT SSW FLOW.
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND...MODEL TREND REMAINS
HAVING BROAD H5 RIDGE TO WEST WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THRU AREA DURING THE SO PLAN ON KEEPING ANY PRECIP AT THIS
TIME NEAR SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS...WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING MAIN P-TYPE
DUE TO DAYTIME PASSAGE.
FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50-60F RANGE WITH ONLY WEDNESDAY
LOOKING NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S WITH SYSTEM PASSAGE AND CAA WITH
ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN RIDGE INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE 20S WHICH WILL STILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY 5-6
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
25-30KT WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT KGLD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 12KT AROUND SUNSET...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
WE COULD SEE MARGINAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. WITH NW FLOW TODAY AND TD VALUES
TENDING TO HOLD UP WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL LOWER TD VALUES IN COLORADO THAT COULD ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
FROM THE WEST. INCREASED MIXING IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD ALSO RESULT
IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MONDAY...BUT
STILL HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT. WITH BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS 20-30
MPH)...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY FUELS THE
SITUATION BEARS MONITORING. RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT I WILL KEEP MENTION OF ELEVATED THREAT IN
HWO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1007 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
FCST MODEL SNOW RATIOS FOR THE BAND OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE WAY
OFF...MORE LIKE 25:1 AND NOT THE 15:1 SHOWN OFF THE NAM/BUFKIT. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE SEEN 1 IN/HR ACCUMULATIONS ALREADY OVER THE DEAD
RIVER BASIN. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED NOT ONLY RATIOS...BUT
QPF...AND SNOW AMOUNTS. GOING WITH AROUND 2IN OVER THE HIGHER ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY FROM THE HURON MOUNTAINS
THROUGH NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING. WHILE MOISTURE DOES SLOWLY DECREASE AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING EVEN MORE /BELOW 4KFT...THIS AREA
IS IN THE DGZ. CONTINUED LIGHT LES WILL BE THE RULE. UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS BETWEEN 830 AND 930AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM LAST EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HAS TURNED OVER TO LIGHT -SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA AS TEMPS HAVE COOLED BLO -10C IN THE LOWEST 2KFT OF THE
AIRMASS PER RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THERE IS ANY REMAINING -FZDZ OVER SE
SECTIONS IT SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALLOWING
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
NE FLOW AND TEMPS TO NEAR -15C WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KFT OF ATMOSPHERE
WILL FAVOR 4 WRN COUNTIES AND WRN MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES FOR LIGHT LES
TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR BESIDES FAIRLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVERSION WITHIN LOWEST 3KFT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH FOR AREAS BEST AIDED BY
UPSLOPE NE FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TONIGHT. NAM SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE
SHALLOWING OUT BLO LOWEST 2KFT FM SFC...BUT WITH TEMP AT INVERSION
BASE OF -13 TO -14C...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT LES/FLURRIES
OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE NE TO N FLOW AREAS. STILL
WOULDN/T EXPECT ACCUMULATION ANY MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. WITH LIGHT
ERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO AT SOME OF
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. OVER THE WEST HALF AND SOUTH CENTRAL...TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO INLAND TO 10F OR HIGHER
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
MUCH OF THE FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE COLD AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM A HIGH SLIDING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH 925-900MB TEMPS AROUND -12C...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT
THINK THE LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AS WINDS WEAKEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR
APPEARS TO START WORKING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD AT LEAST BREAK UP
SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE LAKE/TERRAIN INFLUENCES OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DID LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES WORK BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
TUESDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES
INTO THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
WIND.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COME ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
REDEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AN INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION (AIDED
BY MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION). OVERALL...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORCING (ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH LARGELY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF LIKELY VALUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS (DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND WHETHER THEY STAY
SOUTH OF OR MOVE THROUGH THE CWA)...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 0.1-0.2 INCH OF QPF. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...AS MUCH OF THE FORCING RIGHT NOW IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
DGZ AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL 13-15 TO 1 FOR
NOW...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO 1-3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA
UNDER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C TUESDAY
NIGHT TO -22C WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8KFT) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELTS...QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS/SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA) WHERE THE LONGEST ICE FREE FETCH
IS LOCATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE
ICE AROUND ISLE ROYALE SHORTING THE FETCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE
FORCING WILL BE IN THE DGZ DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT...THINK THE STRONG WINDS (25-35KTS) WILL FRACTURE THE FLAKES
AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. BUT THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEIGHTENED WORDING IN
THE HWO. EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY...AS AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO)...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST (INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO) AND COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR
WHAT OCCURRED A FEW MORNINGS AGO (-20S IN THE COLD SPOTS) IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN (RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA) SO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX
AND KIWD THIS MORNING UNDER ENE FLOW. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NE OR DOWNSLOPE BY
AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME...NNE FLOWWILL MAKE IT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DRYING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MVFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND NE WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE WRN HALF OF THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOLID WINDS TO 30 KT WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING
GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS MORNING. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY FOR WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KT THROUGH THE PD. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT THEN WINDS
RAMP UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT. NORTH WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN BLO GALES ON THU BUT WILL REMAIN UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM LAST EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HAS TURNED OVER TO LIGHT -SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA AS TEMPS HAVE COOLED BLO -10C IN THE LOWEST 2KFT OF THE
AIRMASS PER RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THERE IS ANY REMAINING -FZDZ OVER SE
SECTIONS IT SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALLOWING
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
NE FLOW AND TEMPS TO NEAR -15C WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KFT OF ATMOSPHERE
WILL FAVOR 4 WRN COUNTIES AND WRN MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES FOR LIGHT LES
TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR BESIDES FAIRLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVERSION WITHIN LOWEST 3KFT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH FOR AREAS BEST AIDED BY
UPSLOPE NE FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TONIGHT. NAM SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE
SHALLOWING OUT BLO LOWEST 2KFT FM SFC...BUT WITH TEMP AT INVERSION
BASE OF -13 TO -14C...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT LES/FLURRIES
OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE NE TO N FLOW AREAS. STILL
WOULDN/T EXPECT ACCUMULATION ANY MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. WITH LIGHT
ERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO AT SOME OF
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. OVER THE WEST HALF AND SOUTH CENTRAL...TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO INLAND TO 10F OR HIGHER
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
MUCH OF THE FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE COLD AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM A HIGH SLIDING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH 925-900MB TEMPS AROUND -12C...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT
THINK THE LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AS WINDS WEAKEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR
APPEARS TO START WORKING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD AT LEAST BREAK UP
SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE LAKE/TERRAIN INFLUENCES OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DID LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES WORK BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
TUESDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES
INTO THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
WIND.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COME ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
REDEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AN INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION (AIDED
BY MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION). OVERALL...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORCING (ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH LARGELY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF LIKELY VALUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS (DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND WHETHER THEY STAY
SOUTH OF OR MOVE THROUGH THE CWA)...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 0.1-0.2 INCH OF QPF. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...AS MUCH OF THE FORCING RIGHT NOW IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
DGZ AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL 13-15 TO 1 FOR
NOW...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO 1-3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA
UNDER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C TUESDAY
NIGHT TO -22C WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8KFT) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELTS...QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS/SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA) WHERE THE LONGEST ICE FREE FETCH
IS LOCATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE
ICE AROUND ISLE ROYALE SHORTING THE FETCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE
FORCING WILL BE IN THE DGZ DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT...THINK THE STRONG WINDS (25-35KTS) WILL FRACTURE THE FLAKES
AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. BUT THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEIGHTENED WORDING IN
THE HWO. EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY...AS AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO)...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST (INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO) AND COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR
WHAT OCCURRED A FEW MORNINGS AGO (-20S IN THE COLD SPOTS) IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN (RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA) SO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX
AND KIWD THIS MORNING UNDER ENE FLOW. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR AT KCMX AND KIWD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NE OR DOWNSLOPE BY
AFTERNOON. AT SAME TIME...NNE FLOWWILL MAKE IT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DRYING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MVFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND NE WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE WRN HALF OF THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOLID WINDS TO 30 KT WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING
GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS MORNING. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY FOR WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRES RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KT THROUGH THE PD. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT THEN WINDS
RAMP UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT. NORTH WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN BLO GALES ON THU BUT WILL REMAIN UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
HALF.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST DEALING WITH AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE LINGERED
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...AND GRADUALLY COOLED JUST ENOUGH TO
CREATE ICING CONCERNS IN THIS AREA. THERE HAS BEEN CLARITY IN
TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS LINING UP WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN MN. WAS ABLE TO SHARPLY DEFINE THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND
AGREEMENT AMONG THE HI- RES GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE
LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON...BUT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ONSET
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVERTAKING THE REGION.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AS MODEST
LIFT MOVES IN. MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
IN GOING ANY HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT AT MOST IN THE FORECAST
THERE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH TODAY...850MB TEMPS YESTERDAY FROM
+10 TO +15C ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL BELOW 0C TODAY. THIS ALSO
MEANS A COOLER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD ON MON ATOP SFC
HIGH PRES...MAKING FOR DRY CONDS BUT ALSO THE START OF ANOTHER
MODEST WARMING TREND. A FEW BUBBLES IN THE FLOW WILL AID IN
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP FROM AFFECTING THE AREA ON MON. THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT MON EVE THRU MON NIGHT WHILE A
LONGWAVE TROF MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROF AS IT SHIFTS EWD OVER THE ROCKIES TUE.
THE FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR AN EFFICIENT CONDUIT FOR
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS MON NIGHT
THRU TUE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPR LVL TROF WILL MOVES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECT
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MULTIPLE LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW PRES
FEATURE INCRS LATE MON THRU TUE...ALLOWING PRECIP TO SPREAD ACRS
THE ENTIRE CWFA TUE. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND...
PARTICULARLY IN THE BLYR...WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR A MIXTURE OF PRECIP
BUT THE CONCERN IN THIS FCST PKG OVER PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE
NOTICEABLE INCRS IN QPF. THIS WILL SPELL NOT ONLY A POTENTIAL
INCRS IN SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 1-3 INCH RANGE BUT ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICING NEARLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE BETTER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE WFO MPX CWFA WHILE
THE BETTER ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE ICE/SNOW
DELINEATION WILL BE AND TO THE QPF...AND HENCE SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENT...
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY TUE INTO TUE EVE. THE SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK
FROM SD ACRS SRN MN TO THE LWR GRT LAKES BY WED MRNG...BRINGING AN
END TO ANY AND ALL PRECIP BY THAT TIME. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
DROP THRU THE REGION LATE WED THRU THU NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING BUT ALSO NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE SE...WARMER
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL MAKE FOR SOME MODERATION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT DRIVING SE WITHIN THE NW FLOW MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE COVERAGE AREA FRI AND AGAIN
LATE SAT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE OPTIMISTIC. STARTING WITH THE
PRECIP...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
RWF...WHICH WAS THE MOST HEAVILY IMPACTED TAF SITE BY THE
OVERNIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE OTHER TAF SITES. LOW LEVELS
HAVING TROUBLE SATURATING AS QUICKLY AS ONCE THOUGHT...AND EVEN
THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP ARE SEEING LOWEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 5K
FEET. FOLLOWED THE RAP 0.5KM CPD CLOSELY IN TIMING IN THE STRATUS
THIS MORNING...AS IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION
QUITE WELL. THIS MEANT DELYAING THE ONSET OF THE LOWER CEILINGS A
COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALSO RAISING THE EXPECTED VSBYS. NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONCE THE CLOUDS SPREAD THROUGH THE
REGION...THEY`LL BE ESSENTIALLY HERE TO STAY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
KMSP...MAIN PRECIP SLUG TO REMAIN SOUTH OF MSP. COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES LATER THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED TO
FALL. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO STAY IN PLACE FOR A WHILE ONCE THEY
FINALLY ARRIVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ054>056-064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST DEALING WITH AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE LINGERED
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...AND GRADUALLY COOLED JUST ENOUGH TO
CREATE ICING CONCERNS IN THIS AREA. THERE HAS BEEN CLARITY IN
TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS LINING UP WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN MN. WAS ABLE TO SHARPLY DEFINE THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND
AGREEMENT AMONG THE HI- RES GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE
LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON...BUT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE ONSET
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVERTAKING THE REGION.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AS MODEST
LIFT MOVES IN. MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
IN GOING ANY HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT AT MOST IN THE FORECAST
THERE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH TODAY...850MB TEMPS YESTERDAY FROM
+10 TO +15C ACROSS THE REGION WILL FALL BELOW 0C TODAY. THIS ALSO
MEANS A COOLER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD ON MON ATOP SFC
HIGH PRES...MAKING FOR DRY CONDS BUT ALSO THE START OF ANOTHER
MODEST WARMING TREND. A FEW BUBBLES IN THE FLOW WILL AID IN
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP FROM AFFECTING THE AREA ON MON. THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT MON EVE THRU MON NIGHT WHILE A
LONGWAVE TROF MOVES ONSHORE THE PAC NW. PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROF AS IT SHIFTS EWD OVER THE ROCKIES TUE.
THE FLATTENING FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR AN EFFICIENT CONDUIT FOR
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS MON NIGHT
THRU TUE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPR LVL TROF WILL MOVES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECT
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MULTIPLE LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW PRES
FEATURE INCRS LATE MON THRU TUE...ALLOWING PRECIP TO SPREAD ACRS
THE ENTIRE CWFA TUE. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND...
PARTICULARLY IN THE BLYR...WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR A MIXTURE OF PRECIP
BUT THE CONCERN IN THIS FCST PKG OVER PREVIOUS RUNS IS THE
NOTICEABLE INCRS IN QPF. THIS WILL SPELL NOT ONLY A POTENTIAL
INCRS IN SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 1-3 INCH RANGE BUT ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICING NEARLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE BETTER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE WFO MPX CWFA WHILE
THE BETTER ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE ICE/SNOW
DELINEATION WILL BE AND TO THE QPF...AND HENCE SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENT...
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY TUE INTO TUE EVE. THE SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK
FROM SD ACRS SRN MN TO THE LWR GRT LAKES BY WED MRNG...BRINGING AN
END TO ANY AND ALL PRECIP BY THAT TIME. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
DROP THRU THE REGION LATE WED THRU THU NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING BUT ALSO NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF TO THE SE...WARMER
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL MAKE FOR SOME MODERATION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT DRIVING SE WITHIN THE NW FLOW MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE COVERAGE AREA FRI AND AGAIN
LATE SAT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
00Z RAOB AT MPX WAS VERY DRY IN A LARGE LAYER FROM 900MB-500MB.
SLOWLY THE COLUMN IS BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND
SOME RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.
MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
STILL INDICATE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES AT
800MB OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. IN TERMS OF EXPECTATIONS WITH THE
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...GUIDANCE HAS TURNED MORE OPTIMISTIC AND
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTHWEST. DOWNPLAYED
PRECIP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT RWF WHICH IS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR/RAP REALLY BACKED OFF
ON THE TIMING OF SUB 3K FT CEILINGS TONIGHT...SO PUSHED THOSE BACK
AT ALL SITES. ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES.
KMSP...HRRR/RAP BOTH INDICATE THE PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH OF MSP
AND INDICATED AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. CPD`S
LINE UP WELL WITH 925MB RH FIELDS AND SHOW A DRY WEDGE THROUGH
EASTERN MN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VIS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY
AROUND 5SM MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS PUSHING BACK THE LOW CEILINGS BEYOND 15Z...WILL SEE IF
THIS SIGNAL IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. VRBL WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BCMG SE 5-10 KT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...MVFR CONDS EXPECTED...IFR POSSIBLE...WITH A CHC
OF -SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP. SE WIND 5-15 KT SHIFTING NW LATE.
WED...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD -SHSN. NW WIND 15-20 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ074>076-082>085-091>093.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ054>056-064-065-067-073.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TODAY THEN PULL A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN. AS OF
14Z THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF BUFFALO TO
DUNKIRK THEN FOLLOWING A RIDGELINE JUST INLAND OF LAKE ERIE INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS CREATED
LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY PA WITH
LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 RANGING FROM NEAR 30 TO
THE MID 30S. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER
40S.
THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CRITICAL WHEN THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF IT
REMAINS ENTRENCHED WHERE IT IS THERE COULD BE A LONGER PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE NEAR
CHICAGO THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. VERY WARM AIR IS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGREES ALREADY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA/OHIO.
HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY(MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH) AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN ENOUGH TO SLOW THE WARMING. THE HRRR SHOWS
THE STRATUS FINALLY FILLING IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD AROUND PRIOR TO THAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
MOIST OVER THE LAST DAY AND HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
RAMPS UP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
SNOWPACK WILL GRADUALLY START TO MELT TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
WATER TO BE RELEASED TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE GFS HAS REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALREADY HAS
PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING BY SUNRISE. WENT MORE WITH A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND FOR QPF WHICH HAS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF
TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WEST VIRGINIA. AS THE LOW SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...COLDER AIR IN PLACE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE PULLED
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THIS DOES CREATE A CONCERN FOR PRECIP TYPE
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NE AT ERI WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY 01Z. A WARM
LAYER OF AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS THE SURFACE STARTS TO COOL SO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT IS IN NE OH/NW PA BEFORE THE
COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH
FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZING
RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALTHOUGH ONE MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE AT THIS TIME SO WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION
TIMING TODAY.
ALL SITES SHOULD BRIEFLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PULLED SOUTH BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.
DID LEAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY MORE COLD WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK
IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
FRONT WITH A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS PART OF
THE EVENT LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS. SOME QUESTION ON THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30...RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA...COLDER AIR WILL START COMING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS AROUND...MOISTURE IS
ADEQUATE...PLENTY OF COLD AIR AT 850 MB...-20C AND COLDER. WILL
MENTION A THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY FOR
ASHTABULA AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN ON
FRIDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER NW PA EARLY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A LOW MOVING ON IT WILL BE SINKING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AT 11Z THIS FRONT HAD SLIPPED INTO ERI.
SOME QUESTION IF IT WOULD PUSH NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. NONE THE LESS THE TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WILL BE FOR LOWERING CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY TO IFR.
THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS OCCUR AND WHEN WILL SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOP AND THEN EVENTUALLY SWITCHED TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO SNOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. NON VFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG IT WILL BE THE WEATHER
MAKER ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THEY SHOULD BE STRONGEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GET STRONGER BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
923 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW TOO
FAST INTO OUR AREA AND THIS RESULT IS HAVING CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS
OF FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS...THE RAP MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED TO DELAY ANY THREAT
FOR LIGHT RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A WARM START THIS
MORNING AND HOW WARM IT WAS YESTERDAY...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND RAP TO COME UP WITH TODAYS HIGHS. ULTIMATELY...HOW WARM
IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPR LVL S/WV WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. AS THE LOW AND
FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF CWFA BEFORE TAPERING OFF. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ON MONDAY...LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL FORECAST CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN SHALLOW
CAA INTO THE REGION AND RELATIVELY WARM START IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE STEADYING OUT WHILE THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEE JUST A SMALL INCREASE IN HIGHS GIVEN CAA AND CLOUDY
SKIES.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WORK IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS
WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SETTLING IN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS WE GET INTO SOME
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOP A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 20S. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY DROP
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SO
WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING MORE COMMON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS
RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON
AVIATION CONDITIONS...BUT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...WITH LOW-END MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR)
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS
MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUICK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
711 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TODAY THEN PULL A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
TIGHTENING UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE TEMPERATURE AT ERI HAS DROPPED
TO 31 DEGREES WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. VERY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THEY WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND BE COOL ALL
DAY OR IF THEY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND WARM INTO
THE MID 30S. LOWERED HIGHS BY ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN ERIE PA. FREEZING
RAIN COULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IF A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND PERSISTS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE NEAR
CHICAGO THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. VERY WARM AIR IS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGREES ALREADY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA/OHIO.
HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY(MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH) AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN ENOUGH TO SLOW THE WARMING. THE HRRR SHOWS
THE STRATUS FINALLY FILLING IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD AROUND PRIOR TO THAT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
MOIST OVER THE LAST DAY AND HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
RAMPS UP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
SNOWPACK WILL GRADUALLY START TO MELT TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
WATER TO BE RELEASED TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE GFS HAS REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALREADY HAS
PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING BY SUNRISE. WENT MORE WITH A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND FOR QPF WHICH HAS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF
TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WEST VIRGINIA. AS THE LOW SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...COLDER AIR IN PLACE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE PULLED
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THIS DOES CREATE A CONCERN FOR PRECIP TYPE
TONIGHT...DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NE AT ERI WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY 01Z. A WARM
LAYER OF AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS THE SURFACE STARTS TO COOL SO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT IS IN NE OH/NW PA BEFORE THE
COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH
FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZING
RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALTHOUGH ONE MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE AT THIS TIME SO WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION
TIMING TODAY.
ALL SITES SHOULD BRIEFLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PULLED SOUTH BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.
DID LEAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY MORE COLD WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK
IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
FRONT WITH A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS PART OF
THE EVENT LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS. SOME QUESTION ON THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30...RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA...COLDER AIR WILL START COMING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS AROUND...MOISTURE IS
ADEQUATE...PLENTY OF COLD AIR AT 850 MB...-20C AND COLDER. WILL
MENTION A THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY FOR
ASHTABULA AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN ON
FRIDAY...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER NW PA EARLY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A LOW MOVING ON IT WILL BE SINKING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AT 11Z THIS FRONT HAD SLIPPED INTO ERI.
SOME QUESTION IF IT WOULD PUSH NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. NONE THE LESS THE TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WILL BE FOR LOWERING CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY TO IFR.
THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS OCCUR AND WHEN WILL SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOP AND THEN EVENTUALLY SWITCHED TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO SNOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. NON VFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG IT WILL BE THE WEATHER
MAKER ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS. THEY SHOULD BE STRONGEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GET STRONGER BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW TOO
FAST INTO OUR AREA AND THIS RESULT IS HAVING CONSEQUENCES IN
TERMS OF FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE RAP MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE
DELAYED ANY THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A
WARM START THIS MORNING AND HOW WARM IT WAS YESTERDAY...HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND RAP TO COME UP WITH TODAYS HIGHS.
ULTIMATELY...HOW WARM IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND
EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPR LVL S/WV WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. AS THE LOW AND
FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF CWFA BEFORE TAPERING OFF. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ON MONDAY...LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL FORECAST CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN SHALLOW
CAA INTO THE REGION AND RELATIVELY WARM START IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE STEADYING OUT WHILE THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEE JUST A SMALL INCREASE IN HIGHS GIVEN CAA AND CLOUDY
SKIES.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WORK IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS
WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SETTLING IN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS WE GET INTO SOME
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOP A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 20S. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY DROP
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SO
WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING MORE COMMON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS
RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON
AVIATION CONDITIONS...BUT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...WITH LOW-END MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR)
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS
MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUICK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...SECOND UPDATE TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTIES AS WELL AS COUNTIES SURROUNDING BEXAR
COUNTY...BASED ON ASOS AND WEB CAM TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...TRENDS FROM AREA WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE SITES
INDICATE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS ALONG A BEXAR COUNTY TO KINNEY COUNTY LINE...
SOUTHWARD...CLOSE TO WHERE HRRR IS INDICATING IT SHOULD BE.
VISIBILTIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE 9 AM TO 10 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND BR/FG WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS VLIFR
WILL LINGER INTO MID MORNING AND THEN ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BY AROUND 19Z. VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL FOR
BR/FG AND STRATUS WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
WIN OUT. SWLY WINDS 7 TO 14 KTS WILL TURN NWLY TO NLY AS SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND A MIX OF STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS MIXING INCREASES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MOST AREAS. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/WARM/BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TAKING
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO THU-FRI...BENEATH AMPLIFYING WEST COAST
RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHALLOW AND DEEPER
FORCING PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
WELL WEST WITH THE CUT OFF LOW...POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN LOW...LIMITED TO 20-30S MAINLY WEST OF I-35. COOLER
HIGHS THU AND FRI...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 51 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 48 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 51 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 48 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 48 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 49 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 50 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 52 76 47 74 / - - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 51 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 51 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BEXAR...COMAL...DIMMIT...FRIO...
GUADALUPE...KENDALL...KINNEY...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
513 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND BR/FG WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS VLIFR
WILL LINGER INTO MID MORNING AND THEN ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BY AROUND 19Z. VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL FOR
BR/FG AND STRATUS WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
WIN OUT. SWLY WINDS 7 TO 14 KTS WILL TURN NWLY TO NLY AS SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND A MIX OF STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS MIXING INCREASES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MOST AREAS. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/WARM/BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TAKING
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO THU-FRI...BENEATH AMPLIFYING WEST COAST
RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHALLOW AND DEEPER
FORCING PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
WELL WEST WITH THE CUT OFF LOW...POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN LOW...LIMITED TO 20-30S MAINLY WEST OF I-35. COOLER
HIGHS THU AND FRI...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 51 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 48 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 51 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 48 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 48 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 49 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 50 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 52 76 47 74 / - - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 51 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 51 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
542 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED HERE AT OUR OFFICE. WITH
THE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
STILL MARCHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO NOW
INCLUDE MOST WISCONSIN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WAS JUNEAU/ADAMS WHICH MAY ONLY GET BRUSHED BY THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE REALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. 08.08Z RAP/HRRR AND 08.06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...BRINGING IT
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOME OF SOUTHEAST MN OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE...ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE...IN COLLABORATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA. END TIME IS 16Z FOR SIMPLICITY WITH
HAZARDS TO THE WEST BUT SOUTHEAST MN MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY 14Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TYPE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOISTURE STARVED...DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT ON 00Z MPX...ABR...BIS AND OAX. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABERDEEN TO REDWOOD
FALLS...DODGE CENTER AND WABASHA. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET THE RAIN THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. AIRMASS
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STILL PRETTY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 6-12C AND AIR TEMPERATURES
OF 30-34F. HOWEVER...NORTH OF I-94 AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS REFLECTED BY THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE BY LOW PRESSURE
NEAR CHICAGO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN MT.
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING
TO HOLD VISIBILITIES UP FROM WHAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE ALSO PRESENT ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 IN
WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTING FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
FIRST...THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA REMAINS
PROGGED TO SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF US...REACHING THE INTERSECTION POINT
OF IA...IL AND MO BY 18Z. WE DO SEE A LITTLE DPVA FROM IT...ENOUGH
TO LIKELY BRING THIS CONTINUOUS FEED OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. SECOND ISSUE AND JUST
AS IMPORTANT IS THIS DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE. BASICALLY THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO COME ON THIS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT ZONE...
PER THE RAP/HRRR AND 08.00Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF...LOOKS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AROUND I-90 BY 10Z...THEN SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
ONCE WE GET TO THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONTOGENESIS IS OUT OF HERE...
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF. BECAUSE THE DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30-50 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE MAXIMUM WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MORNING FOR WHERE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ARE GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 4C...PER THE 08.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP. THERE IS SOME
COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO DROP THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMP BELOW 4C BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THEREFORE...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR...DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THOSE AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S DURING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION...SO A GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR.
HAZARD CONSIDERATION...THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL COVER THE
GLAZE POTENTIAL. IF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES...ADVISORIES
WOULD BE ISSUED.
OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE LOW
STRATUS INCREASE AS INCREASING NORTHEAST 925MB-850MB WINDS PULL THE
STRATUS OVER WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. THOSE WINDS REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT SO
ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS TO HANG TOUGH. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING AND CLOUDS AROUND...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR HIGHS/LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS....
1. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TYPE.
2. WINDS WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. ARCTIC COLD SHOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
PIECE OF DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 08.00Z NAM...GFS...
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-90 TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. DECENT 285-300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS PROGGED...COMBINED WITH THE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 0.5 INCH ARE ALL FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THUS...HAVE RAISED CHANCES UP SOME NORTH OF I-90.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKE IT IS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WE COULD LOSE THE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE CONFIDENCE/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER. OVERALL...THIS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD COULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT. DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE 500MB PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. IN FACT...THE FLOW IS CLOSE TO BECOMING CROSS-POLAR. WHAT
THIS MEANS IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC ARCTIC COLD SHOTS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THEY BE.
THE FIRST ARCTIC COLD SHOT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD PRECEDE THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
WINDS AND COLD WILL BE THE STORY. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -18 TO -20C
BY 12Z THU ON A 25-40 KT WIND...SO WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME A FACTOR
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COMING IN HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
GUSTS 30 KT OR SO IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS. WE GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE COLD ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS WARM ADVECTION. THEN...THE ARCTIC
COLD IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS
SIMIALR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
ON SATURDAY BUT THESE MAY NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH
08.14Z...AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
08.16Z. ONCE THE FREEZING RAIN ENDS...A IFR/MVFR DECK WILL MOVE
AND THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BR IS
CURRENTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 3 TO 5 STATUE MILE RANGE
AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF TIME PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ041-
042-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
506 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED HERE AT OUR OFFICE. WITH
THE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
STILL MARCHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO NOW
INCLUDE MOST WISCONSIN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WAS JUNEAU/ADAMS WHICH MAY ONLY GET BRUSHED BY THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE REALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. 08.08Z RAP/HRRR AND 08.06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...BRINGING IT
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOME OF SOUTHEAST MN OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE...ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE...IN COLLABORATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA. END TIME IS 16Z FOR SIMPLICITY WITH
HAZARDS TO THE WEST BUT SOUTHEAST MN MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY 14Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TYPE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOISTURE STARVED...DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT ON 00Z MPX...ABR...BIS AND OAX. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABERDEEN TO REDWOOD
FALLS...DODGE CENTER AND WABASHA. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET THE RAIN THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. AIRMASS
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STILL PRETTY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 6-12C AND AIR TEMPERATURES
OF 30-34F. HOWEVER...NORTH OF I-94 AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS REFLECTED BY THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE BY LOW PRESSURE
NEAR CHICAGO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN MT.
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING
TO HOLD VISIBILITIES UP FROM WHAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE ALSO PRESENT ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 IN
WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTING FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
FIRST...THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA REMAINS
PROGGED TO SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF US...REACHING THE INTERSECTION POINT
OF IA...IL AND MO BY 18Z. WE DO SEE A LITTLE DPVA FROM IT...ENOUGH
TO LIKELY BRING THIS CONTINUOUS FEED OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. SECOND ISSUE AND JUST
AS IMPORTANT IS THIS DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE. BASICALLY THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO COME ON THIS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT ZONE...
PER THE RAP/HRRR AND 08.00Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF...LOOKS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AROUND I-90 BY 10Z...THEN SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
ONCE WE GET TO THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONTOGENESIS IS OUT OF HERE...
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF. BECAUSE THE DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30-50 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE MAXIMUM WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MORNING FOR WHERE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ARE GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 4C...PER THE 08.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP. THERE IS SOME
COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO DROP THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMP BELOW 4C BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THEREFORE...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR...DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THOSE AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S DURING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION...SO A GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR.
HAZARD CONSIDERATION...THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL COVER THE
GLAZE POTENTIAL. IF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES...ADVISORIES
WOULD BE ISSUED.
OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE LOW
STRATUS INCREASE AS INCREASING NORTHEAST 925MB-850MB WINDS PULL THE
STRATUS OVER WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. THOSE WINDS REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT SO
ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS TO HANG TOUGH. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING AND CLOUDS AROUND...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR HIGHS/LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS....
1. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TYPE.
2. WINDS WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. ARCTIC COLD SHOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
PIECE OF DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 08.00Z NAM...GFS...
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-90 TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. DECENT 285-300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS PROGGED...COMBINED WITH THE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 0.5 INCH ARE ALL FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THUS...HAVE RAISED CHANCES UP SOME NORTH OF I-90.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKE IT IS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WE COULD LOSE THE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE CONFIDENCE/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER. OVERALL...THIS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD COULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT. DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE 500MB PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. IN FACT...THE FLOW IS CLOSE TO BECOMING CROSS-POLAR. WHAT
THIS MEANS IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC ARCTIC COLD SHOTS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THEY BE.
THE FIRST ARCTIC COLD SHOT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD PRECEDE THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
WINDS AND COLD WILL BE THE STORY. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -18 TO -20C
BY 12Z THU ON A 25-40 KT WIND...SO WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME A FACTOR
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COMING IN HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
GUSTS 30 KT OR SO IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS. WE GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE COLD ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS WARM ADVECTION. THEN...THE ARCTIC
COLD IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS
SIMIALR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
ON SATURDAY BUT THESE MAY NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MVFR/IFR FOG CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
SFC LOW WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO TAF SITES...FOR SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRING. THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER
THE AREA AS WELL. VSBYS IN BR IN THE 2-5SM RANGE LATE THIS EVENING
AND APPEARS THESE VSBYS WILL GENERALLY HOLD THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WERE JUST NORTH/EAST OF KLSE
AND WITH SFC-900MB WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THESE
CLOUDS LOOKING TO ADVECT INTO THE KLSE/KRST AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SUNDAY...AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. WENT BACK TO A VCSH MENTION AT
KRST/KLSE 15Z-20Z WITH WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP. NORTH-NORTHEAST LOWER LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT PLENTY OF 925-850MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS PERSISTING.
HOWEVER...DRIER/COOLER SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SCOUR OUT
MUCH OF THE BR/HZ THRU THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ041-
042-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1042 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MORNING MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
AND TO ADJUST THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SE HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...08/12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS /MVFR CIGS/ WERE NOTED ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR
EARLY THIS MRNG. HRRR MODEL CONTS TO HANDLE TRENDS VERY WELL...KEEPING
A MAJORITY CLOUD DECK TO THE S OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL AND
N-CNTRL AR TODAY. COULD SEE SOME SCTD LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO NRN AR
LATER THIS MRNG...BUT VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PD. MVFR
CONDS WL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INTO THE AFTN WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER. A CDFNT WL DROP SWD ACRS THE FA TNGT...WITH A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DRIFT SWD INTO NRN AR...
BUT APPEARS THIS WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PD. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
SEEN...BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN DOMINANT AS WINDS KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG FROM FORMING. THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THIS
REGION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NW...SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER...AT
LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH TEMPS JUST
OVER 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE FAR NW. CHANCES FOR
SEEING ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO BE LOWER IN THIS PART OF THE CWA.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO
AR...MOVING SE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
SEEN FOR MON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA.
THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FOR LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH SRLY
FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL WARM TEMPS SOME FOR WED...BUT A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE LATE WED. THIS FRONT MAY
BRING SOME PRECIP...BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOME RAIN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK LIMITED
ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN COLD AIR IMPACTS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE SEEN
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STILL NO SIG CHGS TO THE OVERALL FCST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A
CDFNT WL BE SHIFTING S OF AR AT THE START OF THE PD...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCD HIGH PRES
RDG WL SLIDE ACRS AR THRU EARLY FRI THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA...
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS.
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER QUICK MOVG CLIPPER SYS
SEWD THRU THE AREA FRI NGT AND EARLY SAT. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
WITH THE ASSOCD CDFNT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WL BE NON-EXISTENT...
SO DRY CONDS WL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 67 41 56 33 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 67 46 67 39 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 72 39 56 32 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 46 65 38 / 20 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 45 62 35 / 20 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 48 63 37 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 66 44 66 38 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 39 55 32 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 66 41 56 32 / 20 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 66 45 61 35 / 20 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 42 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 65 42 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 65 43 59 34 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1113 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN SHOWERS AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAST OF A
SERIES OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
TUESDAY PRODUCING DRY WEATHER AND PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT QUICKLY NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW RESULTED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET FORECAST FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IMPACTED THE WEST
SIDE OF THE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
IN LOS BANOS...PACHECO PASS...AND TRACE AMOUNTS IN MERCED. THE
FIRST BAND OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST AND IS NOW IMPACTING THE
FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA NEVADA FROM MADERA COUNTY NORTHWARD.
THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS APPROACHING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE HOUR. RAIN WILL
SPREAD SOUTH...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND HIGH RES NMM BOTH INDICATE THAT
RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE DESERT
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY. EITHER
WAY...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
RECEIVING BETWEEN A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH...FOOTHILLS
SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS UPWARDS OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE HIGH...STARTING OUT AROUND
9,500 FEET LOWING TO 9,000 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
OAKLAND SOUNDING SHOWED A FREEZING LEVEL AT 9,900 FEET.
REGARDLESS...LOCATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 9,500 FEET COULD SEE A
QUICK 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS IN
MAPIPOSA AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES RECEIVING BETWEEN 10 AND 12 INCHES
OF SNOW.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THE HRRR
HAS BEEN HANDLING THE WINDS WELL AND SHOWS A RAPID INCREASE IN
WINDS AFTER 21Z...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LASTLY...WITH THIS STORM THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY...LAPS
ANALYSIS IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG JUST TO
THE WEST OF MERCED AND FRESNO COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH RES SHORT
TERM MODELS AND THE NAM ALL INDICATE A DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z...WITH CAPE VALUES ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CALLING FOR A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG FAR NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ERRATIC
WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO AN UPPER
TROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY
CONDITIONS...AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA THROUGH
12Z MON. SCT THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z SUN AND 06Z MON. LOCAL IFR IN
MIST AND FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MON.
IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z
MON. SCT THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z SUN AND 06Z MON IN THE FOOTHILLS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z MON. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 18Z MON.
IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...VFR THRU 22Z SUN THEN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z MON.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 18Z MON.
IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 02-08 74:1987 41:1989 53:1993 28:1891
KFAT 02-09 71:2012 45:1923 56:1987 27:1891
KFAT 02-10 75:1961 44:1894 54:1916 29:1965
KBFL 02-08 77:1917 46:1939 53:1963 23:1929
KBFL 02-09 77:2012 42:1919 58:1975 24:1929
KBFL 02-10 79:1961 47:1967 54:1973 23:1929
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT CAZ096.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY CAZ089-091.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
535 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP GETTING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN CWA
TOWARDS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THE
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THOUGH IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MODERATE...WITH READINGS
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES. THROUGH THE DAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING NORTHERN NC BY MID EVENING THEN OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY USHERING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK WITH FROPA...HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL LIFT TO REMAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
MPH...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS TO AROUND 60 IN THE CSRA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A QUICK
SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE FORECAST WITH
NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 24 HR
FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS COMMON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME BY SUNSET...BUT WILL REMAIN
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT THAT
A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KNOTS COULD SET UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
THE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF IT DOES.
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR ANY TAF SITES IS SMALL BETWEEN
12Z-18Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY KIND OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL
PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY LAYER REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA BEHIND THIS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
PATTERN REMAINS WARM AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY. WHILE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WE PROBABLY WONT SEE RECORD
VALUES AS WAA WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL
STILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 70 TODAY AND MONDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NW
GRADIENT AND RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT BREEZY NW
WINDS (GUSTS 20-30 MPH) TODAY. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING MONDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...AND WITH INCREASING
MIXING WOLD ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY (GUSTS 20-25
MPH).
TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CWA TUESDAY AND OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TUESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOW-
MID 60S. POSITION AND TIMING OF THE H3 JET AHEAD OF THIS MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FAVOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
ADVERTISED BY GFS/ECMWF/NAM. WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK LIFT FURTHER
EAST IN OUR CWA...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND WEST
OF CO BORDER BASED ON BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL...AND INCLUDED MENTION
OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FURTHER EAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE REGION WITH INCREASING CAA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THIS WE
WILL PROBABLY STILL ONLY SEE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DROP TO 30-35
RANGE DUE TO LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
LIQUID PRECIP OR SNOW EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE MEASURABLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF MOVES SOUTH THRU THE ROCKIES...AND
NORTHERN TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ON INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE DOES CONTINUE TO
BE VERY LIMITED AS THE FORMING CUTOFF SYSTEM TRAVERSES AREA. FOCUS
OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN COLORADO AS LIFT PROVIDED
BY LOW...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH
BEHIND TROUGH...GIVING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN DUE TO DAYTIME
PASSAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...COULD
AFFORD SOME LOCALES A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY MIXING WITH LIGHT
TRAIN AT TIMES.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AS SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST
THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THIS TIME WILL AID IN WARM UP W/ DECENT SSW FLOW.
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND...MODEL TREND REMAINS
HAVING BROAD H5 RIDGE TO WEST WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THRU AREA DURING THE SO PLAN ON KEEPING ANY PRECIP AT THIS
TIME NEAR SLIGHT CHANCE NUMBERS...WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING MAIN P-TYPE
DUE TO DAYTIME PASSAGE.
FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50-60F RANGE WITH ONLY WEDNESDAY
LOOKING NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S WITH SYSTEM PASSAGE AND CAA WITH
ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN RIDGE INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE 20S WHICH WILL STILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY 5-6
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLANS REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
IS REPLACED BY A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY SLACKEN AS THE SUN SETS AND
THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
WE COULD SEE MARGINAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. WITH NW FLOW TODAY AND TD VALUES
TENDING TO HOLD UP WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL LOWER TD VALUES IN COLORADO THAT COULD ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
FROM THE WEST. INCREASED MIXING IN THE SOUTHWEST COULD ALSO RESULT
IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MONDAY...BUT
STILL HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT. WITH BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS 20-30
MPH)...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY FUELS THE
SITUATION BEARS MONITORING. RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT I WILL KEEP MENTION OF ELEVATED THREAT IN
HWO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
448 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A HRO...GYI...SEP...JCT LINE AS OF 22Z THIS
AFTN. FRONT SHOULD REALLY PICK UP SPEED THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH ALL OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS BEFORE 06Z TNGT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD EXISTS WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
4-6KFT. THIS CU FIELD IS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS...ALBEIT A LITTLE
THIN IN AND AROUND THE TYR/GGG AND MLU TERMINALS WHERE MIXING HAS
HELPED TO CREATE A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVC. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
CLOUD COVER WAS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18-20KTS AND THUS...THE
TXK AND TYR TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIKELY LOST THEIR LOWER CEILINGS
WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY
EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS. THIS SEEMS POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL
FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THESE TWO
TERMINALS. MENTIONED VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL THE FRONT BYPASSES THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING A WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW. A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO AROUND
8-10KTS WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AND VERY
LITTLE OF THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES.
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SCATTERING OUT SOUTH OF I-20
TODAY BUT A THICK BAND OF CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER IT PASSES AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. MID
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NRN KS WILL DIVE SEWD AND
COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL ASCENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
DEVELOP A FEW SHWRS SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT. I CONSIDERED REMOVING
POPS COMPLETELY TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST WV LOOPS
THAT THE SHORTWAVE MAY TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE SFC BOUNDARY THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHWRS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
UPPER RIDGING AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE WAY TOO
COOL WITH THEIR MAX TEMP FORECASTS FOR TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM
BEHIND THE TROUGH IN OK...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN OURS WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES F. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS
UPSTREAM AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR...AND
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED OVERHEAD...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY SO HAVE GONE WARMER THAN MOST OF THE
MODELS. TEMPS MAY BE A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES ELY WHICH COULD ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES F ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AND THIS MAKES SENSE AS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO BUILD PRIOR
TO THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD COOL TEMPS BACK TO NEAR CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 49 71 40 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 69 37 60 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 69 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 68 39 63 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 66 36 60 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 72 42 70 45 / 10 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 72 42 68 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
LFK 53 74 43 71 45 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1256 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
FCST MODEL SNOW RATIOS FOR THE BAND OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE WAY
OFF...MORE LIKE 25:1 AND NOT THE 15:1 SHOWN OFF THE NAM/BUFKIT. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE SEEN 1 IN/HR ACCUMULATIONS ALREADY OVER THE DEAD
RIVER BASIN. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED NOT ONLY RATIOS...BUT
QPF...AND SNOW AMOUNTS. GOING WITH AROUND 2IN OVER THE HIGHER ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY FROM THE HURON MOUNTAINS
THROUGH NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING. WHILE MOISTURE DOES SLOWLY DECREASE AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING EVEN MORE /BELOW 4KFT...THIS AREA
IS IN THE DGZ. CONTINUED LIGHT LES WILL BE THE RULE. UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS BETWEEN 830 AND 930AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM LAST EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HAS TURNED OVER TO LIGHT -SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA AS TEMPS HAVE COOLED BLO -10C IN THE LOWEST 2KFT OF THE
AIRMASS PER RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THERE IS ANY REMAINING -FZDZ OVER SE
SECTIONS IT SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALLOWING
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER.
NE FLOW AND TEMPS TO NEAR -15C WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KFT OF ATMOSPHERE
WILL FAVOR 4 WRN COUNTIES AND WRN MQT-BARAGA COUNTIES FOR LIGHT LES
TODAY. LIMITING FACTOR BESIDES FAIRLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVERSION WITHIN LOWEST 3KFT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION WITH A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH FOR AREAS BEST AIDED BY
UPSLOPE NE FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TONIGHT. NAM SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE
SHALLOWING OUT BLO LOWEST 2KFT FM SFC...BUT WITH TEMP AT INVERSION
BASE OF -13 TO -14C...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT LES/FLURRIES
OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE NE TO N FLOW AREAS. STILL
WOULDN/T EXPECT ACCUMULATION ANY MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. WITH LIGHT
ERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO AT SOME OF
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. OVER THE WEST HALF AND SOUTH CENTRAL...TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO INLAND TO 10F OR HIGHER
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
MUCH OF THE FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE COLD AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM A HIGH SLIDING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH 925-900MB TEMPS AROUND -12C...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT
THINK THE LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AS WINDS WEAKEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR
APPEARS TO START WORKING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD AT LEAST BREAK UP
SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE LAKE/TERRAIN INFLUENCES OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DID LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES WORK BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
TUESDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES
INTO THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHEAST
WIND.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COME ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
REDEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AN INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION (AIDED
BY MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION). OVERALL...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORCING (ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH LARGELY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF LIKELY VALUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS (DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND WHETHER THEY STAY
SOUTH OF OR MOVE THROUGH THE CWA)...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE BETWEEN 0.1-0.2 INCH OF QPF. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...AS MUCH OF THE FORCING RIGHT NOW IS ON THE EDGE OF THE
DGZ AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL 13-15 TO 1 FOR
NOW...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO 1-3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA
UNDER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C TUESDAY
NIGHT TO -22C WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8KFT) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELTS...QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL FOCUS THE SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS/SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA) WHERE THE LONGEST ICE FREE FETCH
IS LOCATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE
ICE AROUND ISLE ROYALE SHORTING THE FETCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE
FORCING WILL BE IN THE DGZ DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT...THINK THE STRONG WINDS (25-35KTS) WILL FRACTURE THE FLAKES
AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. BUT THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEIGHTENED WORDING IN
THE HWO. EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY...AS AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO)...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST (INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO) AND COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR
WHAT OCCURRED A FEW MORNINGS AGO (-20S IN THE COLD SPOTS) IF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN (RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA) SO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT ALL 3 SITES. WITH THE ADDITION
OF DAYTIME MIXING CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE TO MVFR AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AT SAW AS THE NEXT BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ORIENTED MAINLY W-E JUST OFFSHORE SINKS TO
THE S AROUND 2KTS/HR...AND BRINGS SAW BACK TO IFR VIS AND BORDERLINE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FROM AROUND 20 ON. AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE
CEILING FCST OVERNIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN FCST /CURRENTLY 09-11Z/. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED 12-18Z MONDAY. COULD STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AT BOTH CMX AND SAW LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY...EXTENDING
FROM 2 AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA.
THE RESULT WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW
25KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE TEMPORARY END TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE NJ SHORE ON
THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG HIGH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SINK TO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF N GALES NEARING 35-40KTS LATE
WESNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND
E LAKE SUPERIOR /ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY/.
EXPECT A LOW OVER MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT TO THEN MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE LOW LOOKS PRETTY
WEAK...WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 30KTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263-264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1253 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT PER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM. GIVEN
SOUNDINGS THOUGH...NEED TO HAVE QUITE THE MIX IN THE FORECAST.
SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE...THE
LATER ALONG I94. THERE IS A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THE STRATUS WHICH AS
WET BULB AFFECTS OCCUR WE SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX TAKE PLACE. NOT
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO RISE TO THE LEVEL OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GIVEN THE SPOTTY AND OVERALL LIGHT NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES GIVEN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THE LOOK THE HRRR
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GOING FORWARD. ISABELLA COUNTY 911 HAS
CONFIRMED SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BURST THAT RECENTLY
WENT THROUGH THERE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ZONE FORECASTS TO
COVER THE LIGHT MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION. PLAN IS TO COVER WEATHER
THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS JUST ISSUED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD FUNNEL
THE COLDER AIR IN WITH TEENS CURRENTLY AT THE TIP OF THE MITT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED
PCPN TODAY. HOWEVER ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. TEMPS WILL FALL
SLOWLY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CHANGING ANY LIGHT
MIXED PCPN OVER TO A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE
FAIR WX WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE TWENTIES BOTH DAYS WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT A CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT
WILL WILL BRING SOME SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS GO NORTHEAST.
THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH SUB ZERO COLD THURSDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW MOVING
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY WHAT
COULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
PLENTY OF IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR AVIATION INTERESTS FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE 18Z FCST PERIOD. MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
IFR AND LOWER CATEGORY AT PRESS TIME WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. KJXN HAS
NOT YET AS OF 1730Z...HOWEVER WE EXPECT THEM TO DROP TO IFR SHORTLY.
NOT A LOT OF PCPN AROUND THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT PCPN FLOATING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS HAS
BEEN SOME MIST/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE SFC TEMP.
WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z OR SO. AROUND 21Z THERE
HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY IN DATA THAT A NARROW YET SOMEWHAT
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. WE HAVE
TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE FCST.
ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF ALL AREAS BY 02Z OR SO...WE SHOULD SEE
A LOW CLOUD DECK HANG AROUND MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE MVFR...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE IFR
FOR A PERIOD. EVENTUALLY WE WILL LIKELY START BREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON MON...TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
ICE IS STABLE ON AREA RIVERS AS THE RECENT WARM-UP HAS NOT BEEN
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MELT AWAY OR CRACK AND SPLIT THE ICE TO GET
THINGS MOVING ON THE RIVERS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGH + LOW / 2)
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...THEN
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE FIGURES AND LOW TEENS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD EXCELLENT ICE FORMATION ON AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD AID IN ICE DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASINGLY STEEPER SUN ANGLE COULD MITIGATE
SOME OF THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ICE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
STATUS QUO UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP HELPS BREAK IT UP.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1139 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT WINTERY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATE IN THE
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT PER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 4KM NAM. GIVEN
SOUNDINGS THOUGH...NEED TO HAVE QUITE THE MIX IN THE FORECAST.
SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE...THE
LATER ALONG I94. THERE IS A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THE STRATUS WHICH AS
WET BELB AFFECTS OCCUR WE SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX TAKE PLACE. NOT
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO RISE TO THE LEVEL OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GIVEN THE SPOTTY AND OVERALL LIGHT NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES GIVEN RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THE LOOK THE HRRR
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GOING FORWARD. ISABELLA COUNTY 911 HAS
CONFIRMED SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BURST THAT RECENTLY
WENT THROUGH THERE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ZONE FORECASTS TO
COVER THE LIGHT MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION. PLAN IS TO COVER WEATHER
THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS JUST ISSUED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD FUNNEL
THE COLDER AIR IN WITH TEENS CURRENTLY AT THE TIP OF THE MITT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED
PCPN TODAY. HOWEVER ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. TEMPS WILL FALL
SLOWLY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CHANGING ANY LIGHT
MIXED PCPN OVER TO A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE
FAIR WX WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE TWENTIES BOTH DAYS WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT A CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT
WILL WILL BRING SOME SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS GO NORTHEAST.
THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH SUB ZERO COLD THURSDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW MOVING
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY WHAT
COULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO TO IFR AS STRATUS WITH
BASES AROUND 800 FEET AGL MOVES IN BY 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL VARY
BETWEEN LIFR...IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT AND WAS
LEFT OUT THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE GOING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AOB 10 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
ICE IS STABLE ON AREA RIVERS AS THE RECENT WARM-UP HAS NOT BEEN
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MELT AWAY OR CRACK AND SPLIT THE ICE TO GET
THINGS MOVING ON THE RIVERS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGH + LOW / 2)
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...THEN
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE FIGURES AND LOW TEENS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD EXCELLENT ICE FORMATION ON AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD AID IN ICE DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASINGLY STEEPER SUN ANGLE COULD MITIGATE
SOME OF THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ICE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
STATUS QUO UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP HELPS BREAK IT UP.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
246 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WX TO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WEAK
PRESSURE RISE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ALLOWING FOR A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS IN OUR
EAST. MUCH COOLER AIR AND FOG/STRATUS EXIST FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE WIND SHIFT WILL ADVECT A
PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS INTO OUR NORTHEAST PARTS TONIGHT. HRRR AND
MET GUIDANCE SHOW A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS INTO FALLON
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS FORSYTH
AND EKALAKA. WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG TO THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.
DEEPER TROF OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL PUSH INLAND TOMORROW.
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
ENERGY AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER OUR
MTNS AND IN THE EAST. OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP SOME
SNOWFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MIXED PCPN IN OUR FAR EAST
MONDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW COOL IT STAYS TOMORROW PER THE
EASTERLY WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE LOWER ELEVATION PCPN TYPE WILL BE
RAIN IN THIS PERSISTENT WARM REGIME. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL
PUSH 60 DEGREES MOST PLACES.
LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUR FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER
OF 30-40 KTS THEY SHOULD STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
NONETHELESS RAISED WIND SPEEDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE AND EVEN
RED LODGE AND DAYTON DURING THESE PRE-FRONTAL PERIODS. THINKING
GUSTS IN THE 40S MPH.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
CANADIAN SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN MT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
SOME NW-SE ORIENTED PCPN BANDS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH SFC TEMPS TURNING SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW AS WE COLD
ADVECT FROM THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT SOME SNOWFALL IN OUR CENTRAL
PARTS INCLUDING BILLINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
SHIFTING TOWARD OUR FOOTHILLS BY EVENING PER PRESSURE RISES
BUILDING IN FROM THE N-NE. HAVE RAISED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT WE COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL IN THE BANDED
AREAS...MOST LIKELY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. RISING HEIGHTS
AND DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIMINISH PCPN CHANCES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
EARLY FEBRUARY...WITH TEENS FOR LOWS ACROSS OUR EAST HALF TUESDAY
NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
THE EXTENDED IS GENERALLY QUIET...AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS DURING THE DAY. THE
WARM UP WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REALLY BUILDS
BACK IN AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RETURN. WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...AND MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES RETURN. THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING. GIVEN
THAT YESTERDAY THERE LOOKED TO BE A CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND CURRENT
RUNS LOOK DRY FOR SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING WITH ANY
SOLUTION IS LOW. MOSTLY USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN THIS EVENING...THOUGH AROUND
LIVINGSTON EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A BIT GUSTY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AROUND MILES CITY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS
THAN A MILE. BASED ON SOUNDINGS...FOG COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/060 041/049 024/048 032/058 038/058 038/058 036/050
02/W 25/W 41/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 12/R
LVM 038/058 040/049 029/051 035/055 039/057 039/057 036/051
13/W 24/W 51/B 01/N 11/N 11/N 12/R
HDN 032/060 035/048 022/045 026/056 032/057 032/057 032/049
02/W 25/W 21/B 00/B 01/B 01/B 12/R
MLS 031/052 032/043 017/035 020/051 030/052 030/051 029/045
02/W 32/W 10/B 00/B 01/B 01/B 12/O
4BQ 031/059 035/049 019/042 025/056 034/056 033/058 031/049
02/W 33/W 10/B 00/B 01/B 01/B 12/O
BHK 026/049 031/041 014/030 014/048 028/049 027/047 025/041
02/W 32/W 10/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 22/O
SHR 028/061 034/049 022/047 025/058 032/057 031/058 030/051
02/W 23/W 41/B 00/B 01/B 00/B 13/R
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
254 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
AREA BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE WINTRY
MIX TO ALL SNOW, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
AS COMPLEX AS THIS FORECAST IS, FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
IT IS BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AN EXTREME THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS SITTING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40, WHILE SYRACUSE IS STILL
JUST 19. YOU WANT TO TALK EXTREMES. ITHACA HAS DROPPED TO 27 OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE JUST EAST AT CORTLAND IT IS STILL 37!
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT AN EAST/WEST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AT FIRST THE THERMAL GRADIENT WON`T
MOVE MUCH, SO THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WHERE IT IS
NOW OR MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH.
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY, SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH,
OUR TEMPS WILL COOL AND THE EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. I THREW OUT THE MUCH WARMER 12Z GFS AS IT
IS ALREADY TOO WARM WITH 850 TEMPS OF +2C WHERE CURRENT MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TEMPS CLOSER TO 0C OR -1C. IN FACT WHILE THE
12Z NAM AND 12Z EURO ARE THE CLOSEST MODELS TO REALITY AT 850 MB,
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THEY ARE EVEN RUNNING A TAD WARM AT THAT
LEVEL. FOLLOWING THE NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND LOOKING AT
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE, WET BULBING AS
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY COOL THE COLUMN
ENOUGH TO CHANGE US OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE
TRANSITION A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS NY STATE, PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A
CORTLAND TO NORWICH LINE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET, AND SURFACE TEMPS SUPPORT JUST RAIN
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR GREATER BINGHAMTON. EVEN HERE HOWEVER, COOLING
OF THE COLUMN WILL CHANGE US OVER TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 03Z/04Z AS
PRECIPITATION BECOMES STEADIER. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW, BUT ICE AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN NY STATE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 8" TO 12" ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE STAY
ALL SNOW. 5" TO 10" FROM THE FINGER LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MIXING IS A CONCERN. IN THE 5" TO 10" AREA,
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FINGER LAKES, WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE NY/PA LINE.
ACROSS NORTHERN PA, THE TRANSITION PROCESS TO A WINTRY MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW WILL BE MUCH, MUCH SLOWER. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREA. WHILE WE MAY SEE A WINTRY
MIX EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES, THE WYOMING VALLEY SHOULD NOT
SEE ANY CHANGEOVER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HERE WE DO NOT EXPECT A
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO MID MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN, ICE AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT, AND SNOW AMOUNTS LESS SO. ICE
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO TENTHS ARE LIKELY, WITH SNOW
GENERALLY IN THE 3" TO 6" RANGE. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
NEAR THE NY/PA LINE. CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MINOR SNOW ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS OF SLIGHTLY
LESS SNOW FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRYING IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER MONDAY
NIGHT WILL MEAN AN END TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SINCE
WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE IDEAL SNOW
GROWTH REGION, IN INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
WHERE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP BELOW 60%. DRIER WEATHER
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A
MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS WITH READINGS AROUND 10 ACROSS THE FAR SE.
WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NE PA AS
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE NRN CWA. BRIEF WARMUP
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A CLIPPER SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN EASTWARD THROUGH PA. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE REGION, GENERALLY LESS THAN
THREE INCHES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRES WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD.
AT KRME/KSYR/KITH, IFR SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. AFTER 22Z
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ALT MINS DUE TO SNOW THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD.
AT KELM, AN MVFR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 21Z-24Z. AFTER
00Z IFR WITH PRECIP A MIX OF FZRA/SN, AFTER 03Z JUST SNOW WITH
CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS.
AT KBGM, PRECIP WILL START BETWEEN 21Z-24Z AS A MIX OF SLEET AND
SNOW, AFTER 00Z PRIMARILY JUST IFR SNOW THEN AFTER 04Z CONTINUED
SNOW WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS.
AT KAVP, VFR THROUGH 00Z THEN MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN THEN
AFTER 06Z IFR WITH A MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET AFTER 15Z PRECIP WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS.
WINDS OVERNIGHT EITHER EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT/TUE...MAINLY VFR.
WED/WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FROM LIGHT SNOW.
THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE CNY TERMINALS FROM SNOW
SHWRS...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW TOO
FAST INTO OUR AREA AND THIS RESULT IS HAVING CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS
OF FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS...THE RAP MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED TO DELAY ANY THREAT
FOR LIGHT RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A WARM START THIS
MORNING AND HOW WARM IT WAS YESTERDAY...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND RAP TO COME UP WITH TODAYS HIGHS. ULTIMATELY...HOW WARM
IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPR LVL S/WV WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED DEEP
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. AS THE LOW AND
FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME OF THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF CWFA BEFORE TAPERING OFF. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ON MONDAY...LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WILL FORECAST CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN SHALLOW
CAA INTO THE REGION AND RELATIVELY WARM START IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE STEADYING OUT WHILE THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEE JUST A SMALL INCREASE IN HIGHS GIVEN CAA AND CLOUDY
SKIES.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST FORCING WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WORK IN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS
WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SETTLING IN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS WE GET INTO SOME
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOP A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 20S. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY DROP
DOWN TOWARD THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SO
WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE VERY START WILL SOON GIVE WAY TO MVFR AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGES TO FORM CEILINGS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
OHIO. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
OVER 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. RAIN WILL
DIMINISH BY MONDAY LEAVING MVFR CEILINGS IN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR EASTERN OK TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC THROUGH PERIOD.
NORTHWEST TAF SITES /KXNA/KFYV/KROG/KFSM RISK MVFR CIGS 10Z-15Z
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONT MOVING ALONG AS PREVIOSLY SCHEDULED.
MINOR TWEAK TO GRIDS FOR MORNING UPDATE. GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SE OK/NW AR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ONLY A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THE MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A
DROP IN DEW POINT...SOMETHING THAT SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...LIKELY TO WARMER LEVELS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE BEING POST FRONTAL. THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT MIXING THE GFS 875 MB
/A LEVEL SUPPORTED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS/
TEMPERATURES TO THE SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT. DESPITE THIS...AM A
BIT HESITANT TO GO STRAIGHT WITH THE HRRR FORECAST GIVEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE NOT LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS...BUT WILL STILL
GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE POST FRONTAL LOWER MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO SCOUR OUT LOW
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP COMPARED TO EARLIER EXPECTATIONS...BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A QUICK NORTHWARD EXPANSION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAKE A RETURN. THE NEXT...AND MUCH STRONGER...COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT
STILL LOOKS QUESTIONABLE...AND MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR AND TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME
MODERATION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THIS WARMUP FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 41 64 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 42 67 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 43 68 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 34 62 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 37 59 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 39 57 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 40 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 37 58 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
F10 42 66 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 42 71 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1057 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONT MOVING ALONG AS PREVIOSLY SCHEDULED.
MINOR TWEAK TO GRIDS FOR MORNING UPDATE. GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SE OK/NW AR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ONLY A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THE MAIN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A
DROP IN DEW POINT...SOMETHING THAT SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...LIKELY TO WARMER LEVELS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE BEING POST FRONTAL. THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT MIXING THE GFS 875 MB
/A LEVEL SUPPORTED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE GFS/
TEMPERATURES TO THE SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT. DESPITE THIS...AM A
BIT HESITANT TO GO STRAIGHT WITH THE HRRR FORECAST GIVEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE NOT LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS...BUT WILL STILL
GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE VALUES. THE
WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE POST FRONTAL LOWER MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO SCOUR OUT LOW
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP COMPARED TO EARLIER EXPECTATIONS...BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A QUICK NORTHWARD EXPANSION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR
MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAKE A RETURN. THE NEXT...AND MUCH STRONGER...COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT
STILL LOOKS QUESTIONABLE...AND MOST SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN TO
NEAR AND TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME
MODERATION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THIS WARMUP FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 41 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 72 42 67 39 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 72 43 68 40 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 72 34 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 69 37 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 70 39 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 71 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 69 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
F10 72 42 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 68 42 71 41 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
604 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPREADING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN
FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE CAD PATTERN WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM
THE POCONOS INTO SERN PA AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA WHICH
IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING
THE MORE ROBUST WAA ALOFT. VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED AT MDT WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CAD IN LWR SUSQ VLY...MILD SW FLOW ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL NORTH OF THE NY BORDER...STRETCHING NE FROM
JUST SOUTH OF ERIE BETWEEN JHW/OLE.
ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IN THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
SRN POCONO REGIONS...WHERE TEMPS WILL COOLING DOWN CLOSER TO
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE ENDLESS MTNS ALONG THE NY BORDER
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
THERE WAS NOT AS MUCH MODEL SPREAD AS IN THE LAST FEW CYCLES
BETWEEN THE NAM/SREF AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FOR MOST WEATHER
ELEMENTS WITH SLIGHT BIAS CORRECTION TO QPF AMTS...WHICH WHERE
BLENDED WITH CLIMO RATIOS AND WWD SNOW/ICE AMTS. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL CAME OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED WHILE THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE INCREASED OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA -- AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE GREATEST RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/SCHUYLKILL COUNTY VCNTY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVANCING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
UNDERNEATH A RELATIVELY WARMER NOSE OF AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR
A RAIN TO WINTRY MIX PTYPE TRANSITION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVERING NATURE OF THE FREEZING
LINE AND MULTIPLE PTYPES MAKE THIS A RATHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT
FCST.
DESPITE SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THERMAL
PROFILES...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE WW ADVISORY
ANOTHER ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES WEST AS IT APPEARS ICE ACCUMULATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED. MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS WHERE
ALSO TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE HRB/YORK/LANCASTER
METRO AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A
CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A MIDL LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
DIVERGENT...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD
COUPLE WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO BRING LIGHT SNOWFALLS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY AS ITS CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL
TREK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE -16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO AROUND ZERO IN THE
NW MTNS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND
CHILLS TO BE A CONCERN. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE THE REGION IS
IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE LATE
WORK WEEK SYSTEM....TRAVERSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THAT SYSTEM SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
STORM...THOUGH IT SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO CENTRAL PA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN TIMING...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES JUST SOUTH OF TOLEDO OHIO WILL TRACK ESEWD TO SWRN
PA/NRN WV BY 09/12Z THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE NC/VA COAST THROUGH
10/12Z. AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE PULLED SWD WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR NEAR THE SFC FILTERING INTO THE AIRSPACE FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD
MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO UNFOLD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...THE VERY SHALLOW/DENSE COLDER AIR WON`T HAVE THE STEAM
TO CLIMB OVER THE CREST OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE EAST...SO
PRECIP TYPE AT KJST WILL LIKELY STAY AS PLAIN RAIN UNTIL THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE COLDER AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE
N-NW.
AS THE LIGHT PRECIP BLOSSOMS OVER THE REGION AND FALLS THROUGH
THE SHALLOW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALLEGEHNIES TONIGHT...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE STEADILY TO
MVFR THEN IFR AROUND 06-12Z MONDAY.
AGAIN...TO EMPHASIS SOME TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE ISSUES NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION - THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN 1/3 AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO MIXED PTYPES. COMPLEX
THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PTYPE
ONSET/TRANSITION...HOWEVER NEARLY CERTAIN THAT THE OVERALL FLIGHT
CAT TREND WILL BE LOWER. LLVL E-NE FLOW ALSO SUGGEST LOWER CIGS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
THU NGT-FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ057-059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
352 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPREADING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN
FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE CAD PATTERN WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM
THE POCONOS INTO SERN PA AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA WHICH
IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING
THE MORE ROBUST WAA ALOFT. VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED AT MDT WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CAD IN LWR SUSQ VLY...MILD SW FLOW ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL NORTH OF THE NY BORDER...STRETCHING NE FROM
JUST SOUTH OF ERIE BETWEEN JHW/OLE.
ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IN THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
SRN POCONO REGIONS...WHERE TEMPS WILL COOLING DOWN CLOSER TO
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE ENDLESS MTNS ALONG THE NY BORDER
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
THERE WAS NOT AS MUCH MODEL SPREAD AS IN THE LAST FEW CYCLES
BETWEEN THE NAM/SREF AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FOR MOST WEATHER
ELEMENTS WITH SLIGHT BIAS CORRECTION TO QPF AMTS...WHICH WHERE
BLENDED WITH CLIMO RATIOS AND WWD SNOW/ICE AMTS. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL CAME OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED WHILE THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE INCREASED OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA -- AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE GREATEST RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/SCHUYLKILL COUNTY VCNTY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVANCING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
UNDERNEATH A RELATIVELY WARMER NOSE OF AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR
A RAIN TO WINTRY MIX PTYPE TRANSITION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVERING NATURE OF THE FREEZING
LINE AND MULTIPLE PTYPES MAKE THIS A RATHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT
FCST.
DESPITE SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THERMAL
PROFILES...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE WW ADVISORY
ANOTHER ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES WEST AS IT APPEARS ICE ACCUMULATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED. MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS WHERE
ALSO TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE HRB/YORK/LANCASTER
METRO AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A
CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A MIDL LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
DIVERGENT...BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD
COUPLE WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO BRING LIGHT SNOWFALLS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY AS ITS CORRESPONDING TROUGH WILL
TREK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED IN THE -16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO AROUND ZERO IN THE
NW MTNS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND
CHILLS TO BE A CONCERN. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE THE REGION IS
IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE LATE
WORK WEEK SYSTEM....TRAVERSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THAT SYSTEM SEEMS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
STORM...THOUGH IT SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO CENTRAL PA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN TIMING...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES OVER SRN MI WILL TRACK ESEWD TO SWRN PA/NRN WV BY 09/12Z
THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE NC/VA COAST THROUGH 10/12Z. AS THE LOW
TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE PULLED SWD WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR NEAR THE
SFC FILTERING INTO THE AIRSPACE FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO UNFOLD FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATED TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH LOWEST CIGS ACROSS
THE NW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF RETURNS ALOFT
BUT EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN 1/3 AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO MIXED
PTYPES. COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PTYPE ONSET/TRANSITION...HOWEVER NEARLY CERTAIN THAT
THE OVERALL FLIGHT CAT TREND WILL BE LOWER. LLVL E-NE FLOW ALSO
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
THU NGT-FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ057-059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPREADING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN
FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE CAD PATTERN WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM
THE POCONOS INTO SERN PA AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA WHICH
IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING
THE MORE ROBUST WAA ALOFT. VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED AT MDT WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CAD IN LWR SUSQ VLY...MILD SW FLOW ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL NORTH OF THE NY BORDER...STRETCHING NE FROM
JUST SOUTH OF ERIE BETWEEN JHW/OLE.
ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IN THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
SRN POCONO REGIONS...WHERE TEMPS WILL COOLING DOWN CLOSER TO
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE ENDLESS MTNS ALONG THE NY BORDER
*HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
THERE WAS NOT AS MUCH MODEL SPREAD AS IN THE LAST FEW CYCLES
BETWEEN THE NAM/SREF AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FOR MOST WEATHER
ELEMENTS WITH SLIGHT BIAS CORRECTION TO QPF AMTS...WHICH WHERE
BLENDED WITH CLIMO RATIOS AND WWD SNOW/ICE AMTS. THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL CAME OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED WHILE THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE INCREASED OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA -- AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE GREATEST RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS/SCHUYLKILL COUNTY VCNTY.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVANCING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
UNDERNEATH A RELATIVELY WARMER NOSE OF AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR
A RAIN TO WINTRY MIX PTYPE TRANSITION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WAVERING NATURE OF THE FREEZING
LINE AND MULTIPLE PTYPES MAKE THIS A RATHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT
FCST.
DESPITE SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THERMAL
PROFILES...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE WW ADVISORY
ANOTHER ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES WEST AS IT APPEARS ICE ACCUMULATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED. MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS WHERE
ALSO TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE HRB/YORK/LANCASTER
METRO AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TREK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SHOULD BE COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE...THOUGH WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE
-16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO NEAR -10 IN THE NW MTNS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE
LOW. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN
TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES OVER SRN MI WILL TRACK ESEWD TO SWRN PA/NRN WV BY 09/12Z
THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE NC/VA COAST THROUGH 10/12Z. AS THE LOW
TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE PULLED SWD WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR NEAR THE
SFC FILTERING INTO THE AIRSPACE FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO UNFOLD FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATED TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH LOWEST CIGS ACROSS
THE NW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF RETURNS ALOFT
BUT EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN 1/3 AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO MIXED
PTYPES. COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PTYPE ONSET/TRANSITION...HOWEVER NEARLY CERTAIN THAT
THE OVERALL FLIGHT CAT TREND WILL BE LOWER. LLVL E-NE FLOW ALSO
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
THU NGT-FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ057-059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. MEANWHILE LLVL CAD WITH LGT ENE WINDS MAY LIMIT MAX
TEMPS OVER THE SE ZONES AND HAVE CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS MAXES. ALSO CUT BACK POPS FOR --RA TO JUST THE FAR NRN
TIER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.
ALSO ISSUED UPDATED DAY 2 FCST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WE WILL BE
CONSIDERING EXPANDING THE WW ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE OH VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT - ESP IN
THE NORTH WHERE IT SHOULD GO TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL QPFS AND SREF QPF MEANS AND HPC GUIDANCE ALL
POINT TO BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID OUT OF THIS STORM THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
IT IS QUITE AN UNUSUAL PROGRESSION OF EVENTS...THE RAIN MAY TURN
TO FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE AREA AS LLVL COLD AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE E/NE. STILL HAVE MY
DOUBTS THAT WE CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ACCUMULATING AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN AFTER RAIN STARTS AND TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A WINT
WX ADVY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE N AND A WINT WX ADVY FOR
MAINLY ICE ACCUMS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL COS.
SNOWFALL IN THE N/NE COULD REACH 6 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...BUT ANY 12 OR 24 HR STRETCH DOES NOT SEEM TO WARRANT A
WARNING.
THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED TURN TO ZR IN THE E-C WILL BE RIGHT
BEFORE OR DURING THE RUSH HOUR ON MONDAY. THUS...HAVE TAKEN A
STEP AND ONLY INCLUDED ROUGHLY HALF OF THE AREA OF WHERE THE ZR
MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD ONTO THIS
FIRST CUT AT HITTING THE MOST-LIKELY AREA TO SEE IMPACT FROM ZR.
THE PRECIP WILL THEN TURN TO SNOW OVER ALL OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
ENDS ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER PA MON NIGHT BUT THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE TUES MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING DRYING CONDITIONS AND A CLEARING OF SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TREK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SHOULD BE COLD AND DRY. CURRENT MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE...THOUGH WITH LOW QPF/S SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE
-16C TO -23C RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ...TO NEAR -10 IN THE NW MTNS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
WINDS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE
LOW. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD SIT OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISCONTINUITY AND VARIANCE IN
TIMING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES OVER SRN MI WILL TRACK ESEWD TO SWRN PA/NRN WV BY 09/12Z
THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE NC/VA COAST THROUGH 10/12Z. AS THE LOW
TRACKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE PULLED SWD WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR NEAR THE
SFC FILTERING INTO THE AIRSPACE FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO UNFOLD FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATED TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH LOWEST CIGS ACROSS
THE NW 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE. RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF RETURNS ALOFT
BUT EXPECT A MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH 00Z. THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN 1/3 AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO MIXED
PTYPES. COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PTYPE ONSET/TRANSITION...HOWEVER NEARLY CERTAIN THAT
THE OVERALL FLIGHT CAT TREND WILL BE LOWER. LLVL E-NE FLOW ALSO
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN.
TUE...AM LOW CIGS WITH PM IMPROVEMENT.
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR IN -SN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ005-006-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ046-051>053-058.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
137 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
TO LOWER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BURNED OFF...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW
THE FORECAST FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS
DOWN ACROSS THIS AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
PESKY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO SKC BETWEEN 18
AND 20Z AT ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 19Z AT
KDRT AND BY 00Z AT THE I-35 SITES...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONFUSED BY INDICATING FAIRLY DENSE
GROUND FOG IN THE MORNING. BUT WITH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
OF 5-10 DEGREES AND STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
ALSO NOT OCCUR. THUS HAVE LEFT IT OUT...BUT PILOTS CAN EXPECT
MODERATE TO HEAVY DEW MONDAY MORNING ON AIRCRAFT LEFT OUTDOORS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...
TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE CWA AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN
ONE AND FIVE MILES WHERE THERE IS STILL FOG. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE VISIBILITY IS BELOW HALF A MILE.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY NOON. HAVE ALLOWED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...SECOND UPDATE TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTIES AS WELL AS COUNTIES SURROUNDING BEXAR
COUNTY...BASED ON ASOS AND WEB CAM TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...TRENDS FROM AREA WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE SITES
INDICATE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS ALONG A BEXAR COUNTY TO KINNEY COUNTY LINE...
SOUTHWARD...CLOSE TO WHERE HRRR IS INDICATING IT SHOULD BE.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE 9 AM TO 10 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND BR/FG WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS VLIFR
WILL LINGER INTO MID MORNING AND THEN ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BY AROUND 19Z. VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL FOR
BR/FG AND STRATUS WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
WIN OUT. SWLY WINDS 7 TO 14 KTS WILL TURN NWLY TO NLY AS SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND A MIX OF STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS MIXING INCREASES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MOST AREAS. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/WARM/BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TAKING
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO THU-FRI...BENEATH AMPLIFYING WEST COAST
RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHALLOW AND DEEPER
FORCING PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
WELL WEST WITH THE CUT OFF LOW...POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN LOW...LIMITED TO 20-30S MAINLY WEST OF I-35. COOLER
HIGHS THU AND FRI...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 77 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 48 76 44 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 76 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 75 46 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 78 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 48 76 46 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 79 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 50 76 46 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 76 47 74 49 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 77 48 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 77 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ZEITLER
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.AVIATION...
PESKY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO SKC BETWEEN 18
AND 20Z AT ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 19Z AT
KDRT AND BY 00Z AT THE I-35 SITES...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONFUSED BY INDICATING FAIRLY DENSE
GROUND FOG IN THE MORNING. BUT WITH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
OF 5-10 DEGREES AND STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
ALSO NOT OCCUR. THUS HAVE LEFT IT OUT...BUT PILOTS CAN EXPECT
MODERATE TO HEAVY DEW MONDAY MORNING ON AIRCRAFT LEFT OUTDOORS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...
TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE CWA AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN
ONE AND FIVE MILES WHERE THERE IS STILL FOG. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE VISIBILITY IS BELOW HALF A MILE.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY NOON. HAVE ALLOWED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...SECOND UPDATE TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTIES AS WELL AS COUNTIES SURROUNDING BEXAR
COUNTY...BASED ON ASOS AND WEB CAM TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...TRENDS FROM AREA WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE SITES
INDICATE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS ALONG A BEXAR COUNTY TO KINNEY COUNTY LINE...
SOUTHWARD...CLOSE TO WHERE HRRR IS INDICATING IT SHOULD BE.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE 9 AM TO 10 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND BR/FG WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS VLIFR
WILL LINGER INTO MID MORNING AND THEN ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BY AROUND 19Z. VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL FOR
BR/FG AND STRATUS WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
WIN OUT. SWLY WINDS 7 TO 14 KTS WILL TURN NWLY TO NLY AS SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND A MIX OF STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS MIXING INCREASES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MOST AREAS. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/WARM/BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TAKING
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO THU-FRI...BENEATH AMPLIFYING WEST COAST
RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHALLOW AND DEEPER
FORCING PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
WELL WEST WITH THE CUT OFF LOW...POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN LOW...LIMITED TO 20-30S MAINLY WEST OF I-35. COOLER
HIGHS THU AND FRI...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 77 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 48 76 44 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 76 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 75 46 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 78 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 48 76 46 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 79 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 50 76 46 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 76 47 74 49 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 77 48 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 77 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1026 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE CWA AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN
ONE AND FIVE MILES WHERE THERE IS STILL FOG. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE VISIBILITY IS BELOW HALF A MILE.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY NOON. HAVE ALLOWED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...SECOND UPDATE TO EXPAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTIES AS WELL AS COUNTIES SURROUNDING BEXAR
COUNTY...BASED ON ASOS AND WEB CAM TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
UPDATE...TRENDS FROM AREA WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE SITES
INDICATE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS ALONG A BEXAR COUNTY TO KINNEY COUNTY LINE...
SOUTHWARD...CLOSE TO WHERE HRRR IS INDICATING IT SHOULD BE.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE 9 AM TO 10 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND BR/FG WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS VLIFR
WILL LINGER INTO MID MORNING AND THEN ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BY AROUND 19Z. VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL FOR
BR/FG AND STRATUS WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
WIN OUT. SWLY WINDS 7 TO 14 KTS WILL TURN NWLY TO NLY AS SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FOG AND A MIX OF STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HRRR HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT 10 AM TO 1 PM AS MIXING INCREASES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MOST AREAS. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID AFTERNOON...WITH DRY/WARM/BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TAKING
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO THU-FRI...BENEATH AMPLIFYING WEST COAST
RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHALLOW AND DEEPER
FORCING PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
WELL WEST WITH THE CUT OFF LOW...POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN LOW...LIMITED TO 20-30S MAINLY WEST OF I-35. COOLER
HIGHS THU AND FRI...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 51 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 48 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 51 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 48 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 48 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 48 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 49 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 50 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 52 76 47 74 / - - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 51 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 51 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ZEITLER
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...5
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LAST OF THE RAIN THAT WAS CAUSING SOME ICING ISSUES THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CLAYTON COUNTY IA/GRANT COUNTY WI.
CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT WHERE THE RAIN WAS FALLING INDICATED
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AS ALL LIQUID AND ICING WAS NOT
AN ISSUE DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED HERE AT OUR OFFICE. WITH
THE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
STILL MARCHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO NOW
INCLUDE MOST WISCONSIN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WAS JUNEAU/ADAMS WHICH MAY ONLY GET BRUSHED BY THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE REALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. 08.08Z RAP/HRRR AND 08.06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...BRINGING IT
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOME OF SOUTHEAST MN OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE...ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE...IN COLLABORATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA. END TIME IS 16Z FOR SIMPLICITY WITH
HAZARDS TO THE WEST BUT SOUTHEAST MN MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY 14Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TYPE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOISTURE STARVED...DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT ON 00Z MPX...ABR...BIS AND OAX. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABERDEEN TO REDWOOD
FALLS...DODGE CENTER AND WABASHA. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET THE RAIN THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. AIRMASS
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STILL PRETTY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 6-12C AND AIR TEMPERATURES
OF 30-34F. HOWEVER...NORTH OF I-94 AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS REFLECTED BY THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE BY LOW PRESSURE
NEAR CHICAGO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN MT.
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING
TO HOLD VISIBILITIES UP FROM WHAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE ALSO PRESENT ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 IN
WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTING FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
FIRST...THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA REMAINS
PROGGED TO SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF US...REACHING THE INTERSECTION POINT
OF IA...IL AND MO BY 18Z. WE DO SEE A LITTLE DPVA FROM IT...ENOUGH
TO LIKELY BRING THIS CONTINUOUS FEED OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. SECOND ISSUE AND JUST
AS IMPORTANT IS THIS DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE. BASICALLY THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO COME ON THIS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT ZONE...
PER THE RAP/HRRR AND 08.00Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF...LOOKS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AROUND I-90 BY 10Z...THEN SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
ONCE WE GET TO THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONTOGENESIS IS OUT OF HERE...
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF. BECAUSE THE DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30-50 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE MAXIMUM WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MORNING FOR WHERE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ARE GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 4C...PER THE 08.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP. THERE IS SOME
COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO DROP THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMP BELOW 4C BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THEREFORE...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR...DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THOSE AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S DURING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION...SO A GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR.
HAZARD CONSIDERATION...THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL COVER THE
GLAZE POTENTIAL. IF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES...ADVISORIES
WOULD BE ISSUED.
OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE LOW
STRATUS INCREASE AS INCREASING NORTHEAST 925MB-850MB WINDS PULL THE
STRATUS OVER WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. THOSE WINDS REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT SO
ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS TO HANG TOUGH. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING AND CLOUDS AROUND...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR HIGHS/LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS....
1. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TYPE.
2. WINDS WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. ARCTIC COLD SHOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
PIECE OF DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 08.00Z NAM...GFS...
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-90 TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. DECENT 285-300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS PROGGED...COMBINED WITH THE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 0.5 INCH ARE ALL FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THUS...HAVE RAISED CHANCES UP SOME NORTH OF I-90.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKE IT IS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WE COULD LOSE THE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE CONFIDENCE/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER. OVERALL...THIS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD COULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT. DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE 500MB PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. IN FACT...THE FLOW IS CLOSE TO BECOMING CROSS-POLAR. WHAT
THIS MEANS IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC ARCTIC COLD SHOTS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THEY BE.
THE FIRST ARCTIC COLD SHOT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD PRECEDE THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
WINDS AND COLD WILL BE THE STORY. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -18 TO -20C
BY 12Z THU ON A 25-40 KT WIND...SO WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME A FACTOR
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COMING IN HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
GUSTS 30 KT OR SO IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS. WE GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE COLD ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS WARM ADVECTION. THEN...THE ARCTIC
COLD IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS
SIMIALR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
ON SATURDAY BUT THESE MAY NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
GENERALLY AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1022 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LAST OF THE RAIN THAT WAS CAUSING SOME ICING ISSUES THIS MORNING
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CLAYTON COUNTY IA/GRANT COUNTY WI.
CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT WHERE THE RAIN WAS FALLING INDICATED
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AS ALL LIQUID AND ICING WAS NOT
AN ISSUE DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED HERE AT OUR OFFICE. WITH
THE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
STILL MARCHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO NOW
INCLUDE MOST WISCONSIN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WAS JUNEAU/ADAMS WHICH MAY ONLY GET BRUSHED BY THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE REALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. 08.08Z RAP/HRRR AND 08.06Z NAM HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...BRINGING IT
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOME OF SOUTHEAST MN OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE...ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE...IN COLLABORATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA. END TIME IS 16Z FOR SIMPLICITY WITH
HAZARDS TO THE WEST BUT SOUTHEAST MN MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY 14Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EXPANDING EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RIGHT NOW HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY AND TYPE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOISTURE STARVED...DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR
PRESENT ON 00Z MPX...ABR...BIS AND OAX. HOWEVER...LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM ABERDEEN TO REDWOOD
FALLS...DODGE CENTER AND WABASHA. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
MOSTLY A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET THE RAIN THROUGH THE DRY AIR BELOW. AIRMASS
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STILL PRETTY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 6-12C AND AIR TEMPERATURES
OF 30-34F. HOWEVER...NORTH OF I-94 AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS REFLECTED BY THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT...AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE BY LOW PRESSURE
NEAR CHICAGO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN MT.
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING
TO HOLD VISIBILITIES UP FROM WHAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS WERE ALSO PRESENT ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 IN
WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTING FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
FIRST...THE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA REMAINS
PROGGED TO SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF US...REACHING THE INTERSECTION POINT
OF IA...IL AND MO BY 18Z. WE DO SEE A LITTLE DPVA FROM IT...ENOUGH
TO LIKELY BRING THIS CONTINUOUS FEED OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. SECOND ISSUE AND JUST
AS IMPORTANT IS THIS DRY AIR WE HAVE IN PLACE. BASICALLY THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO COME ON THIS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THAT ZONE...
PER THE RAP/HRRR AND 08.00Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF...LOOKS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AROUND I-90 BY 10Z...THEN SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
ONCE WE GET TO THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONTOGENESIS IS OUT OF HERE...
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH
WHICH SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF. BECAUSE THE DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30-50 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE MAXIMUM WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MORNING FOR WHERE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ARE GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 4C...PER THE 08.00Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RAP. THERE IS SOME
COOLING THAT TAKES PLACE AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO DROP THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMP BELOW 4C BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
THEREFORE...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR...DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE. THOSE AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S DURING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION...SO A GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR.
HAZARD CONSIDERATION...THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL COVER THE
GLAZE POTENTIAL. IF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES...ADVISORIES
WOULD BE ISSUED.
OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE LOW
STRATUS INCREASE AS INCREASING NORTHEAST 925MB-850MB WINDS PULL THE
STRATUS OVER WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. THOSE WINDS REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT SO
ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS TO HANG TOUGH. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING AND CLOUDS AROUND...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR HIGHS/LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS....
1. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TYPE.
2. WINDS WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
3. ARCTIC COLD SHOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
PIECE OF DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C WILL
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 08.00Z NAM...GFS...
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BUT THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-90 TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. DECENT 285-300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS PROGGED...COMBINED WITH THE DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 0.5 INCH ARE ALL FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THUS...HAVE RAISED CHANCES UP SOME NORTH OF I-90.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKE IT IS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WE COULD LOSE THE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE CONFIDENCE/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWER. OVERALL...THIS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD COULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT. DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE 500MB PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. IN FACT...THE FLOW IS CLOSE TO BECOMING CROSS-POLAR. WHAT
THIS MEANS IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC ARCTIC COLD SHOTS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THEY BE.
THE FIRST ARCTIC COLD SHOT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD PRECEDE THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
WINDS AND COLD WILL BE THE STORY. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -18 TO -20C
BY 12Z THU ON A 25-40 KT WIND...SO WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME A FACTOR
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS COMING IN HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE
GUSTS 30 KT OR SO IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS. WE GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE COLD ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS WARM ADVECTION. THEN...THE ARCTIC
COLD IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS
SIMIALR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS
ON SATURDAY BUT THESE MAY NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH
08.14Z...AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
08.16Z. ONCE THE FREEZING RAIN ENDS...A IFR/MVFR DECK WILL MOVE
AND THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BR IS
CURRENTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 3 TO 5 STATUE MILE RANGE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE