Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1024 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
THIS MORNING THERE WL STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF EL
PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THESE DISSIPATING BY
MIDMORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT... WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE AREA TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVR THE AREA. A LEE TROF DEVELOPS TODAY WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE CLOUDS TO BE THICK ENOUGH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR... THAT IT WL LIMIT THE WARMING TODAY. HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...WHICH IS STILL 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.
LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS FAIRLY MILD IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
UNSEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES(WITH RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER SOME INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN COLORADO LOCATIONS) DURING THE MAJORITY OF
THE LONGER TERM AND THEN INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 8C AT TIMES FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL(ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS) DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. LOCATIONS
FROM THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INTO THE UPPER 70S
...WHICH IF REALIZED...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BREAKING SOME RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THEN...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW-GRADE POPS MAY BE NOTED AT TIMES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY) AND CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS BASICALLY
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING PREVAILS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COOLER AND POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT. STILL
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF IMPACT AS 06Z GFS40 SUGGESTS
THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
THIS MORNING THERE WL STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF EL
PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THESE DISSIPATING BY
MIDMORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT... WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE AREA TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVR THE AREA. A LEE TROF DEVELOPS TODAY WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE CLOUDS TO BE THICK ENOUGH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR... THAT IT WL LIMIT THE WARMING TODAY. HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...WHICH IS STILL 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.
LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS FAIRLY MILD IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
UNSEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES(WITH RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER SOME INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN COLORADO LOCATIONS) DURING THE MAJORITY OF
THE LONGER TERM AND THEN INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 8C AT TIMES FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL(ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS) DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. LOCATIONS
FROM THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INTO THE UPPER 70S
...WHICH IF REALIZED...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BREAKING SOME RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THEN...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW-GRADE POPS MAY BE NOTED AT TIMES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY) AND CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS BASICALLY
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING PREVAILS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COOLER AND POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT. STILL
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF IMPACT AS 06Z GFS40 SUGGESTS
THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
KCOS IS EXPECTED TO STILL HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE VCNTY THRU
ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. KPUB
SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z AND THEN CONDITIONS WL
BECOME VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
915 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE CLIPPER
WILL STALL OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG IT FOCUSING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MAY BRING A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WEAKENING AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT
STILL LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING TO CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS STILL GRADUALLY BUILDING
EAST AND SOUTH OFF THE LAKES AND OVERCAST SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
EVEN SOME BROKEN CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN AROUND CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS...AND TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER
PREVENTS MUCH ADDITIONAL COOLING. SO...SOME MINOR TOUCHES TO THE
SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...AND SNOW CHANCES IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH IS
BELOW...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TO NRN
MAINE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN AND NRN NY TOWARDS DAY BREAK.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS FRAGMENTED AND DIFFUSE. UPSTREAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOWERING INVERSION TO 4-5 KFT AGL. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT INTENSE BAND FORMATION INTO THE WRN DACKS. OUR FCST FOLLOWS
THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR CLOSELY FOR ROUGHLY 1-4" WITH HIGHLY
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5-6" BY THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE
BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS...EXPECT ONLY A
COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
H850 TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL IN THE -10C TO -16C
RANGE. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL
START ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN
NY...POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR
INTO CENTRL NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY
THE AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN
FROM JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.
OUR FCST REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL
FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES
AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE NAM WAS
LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF A
WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST FOR 9 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POTENTIALLY IS FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT MORE LOCATIONS MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO ADDING THESE LOCATIONS /CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST/ TO WATCH JUST YET. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
5TH TO 7TH PERIOD WATCH...AND THEY CAN BE RISKY. ANOTHER PERUSAL
OF 12-HRS OF ADDITIONAL NWP GUIDANCE WAS DEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO EXPAND THE WATCH.
NOW...FOR STARTERS...THE LATEST NAM AND SREFS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS...AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF. THE
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GFS/ECMWF. WE FOLLOWED THE NERFC
AND WPC QPF FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN THE FCST.
OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SOME OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT COULD EVEN HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET SINCE THE CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY /BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/...SO PTYPE LOOKS TO BE AN
ISSUE. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH AND A DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FCST
AREA...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY NIGHTFALL...AND 1-4" TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE
HERE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING COUPLED WITH
THE VORTICTY ADVECTION. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/QG OMEGA WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE FGEN PROFILES INDICATE SOME BANDS OF
SNOW MAY FORM...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES ACROSS SE PA AND THE
DELMARVA REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE FORMS AND
WERE IT TRACKS FROM THERE. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS FAVOR
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFAL FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED! MORE
DISCUSSION ON THIS STORM IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS STILL WILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY...LOWERING TO LIKELY POPS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IN ALL AREAS. THE NAM
WAS PRODUCING SOME MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IT SEEMED TO
BE AN OUTLIER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 5 ABOVE TO THE TEENS.
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO
10 ABOVE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
(AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. AFTER
18Z-21Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 6KT OR
LESS...THEN PICK UP TO 5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
615 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE CLIPPER
WILL STALL OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG IT FOCUSING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MAY BRING A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS IN LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF CLOUDS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. NOTHING IN THE TRENDS IN DATA SUGGESTS
ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT....SO JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.
MORE DETAILS PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH IS BELOW...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TO NRN
MAINE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN AND NRN NY TOWARDS DAY BREAK.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS FRAGMENTED AND DIFFUSE. UPSTREAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOWERING INVERSION TO 4-5 KFT AGL. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT INTENSE BAND FORMATION INTO THE WRN DACKS. OUR FCST FOLLOWS
THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR CLOSELY FOR ROUGHLY 1-4" BY THE LATE
MORNING TOMORROW. THE BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN
GREENS...EXPECT ONLY A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
H850 TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL IN THE -10C TO -16C
RANGE. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL
START ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN
NY...POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR
INTO CENTRL NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY
THE AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN
FROM JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.
OUR FCST REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL
FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES
AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE NAM WAS
LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF A
WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST FOR 9 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POTENTIALLY IS FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT MORE LOCATIONS MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO ADDING THESE LOCATIONS /CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST/ TO WATCH JUST YET. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
5TH TO 7TH PERIOD WATCH...AND THEY CAN BE RISKY. ANOTHER PERUSAL
OF 12-HRS OF ADDITIONAL NWP GUIDANCE WAS DEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO EXPAND THE WATCH.
NOW...FOR STARTERS...THE LATEST NAM AND SREFS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS...AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF. THE
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GFS/ECMWF. WE FOLLOWED THE NERFC
AND WPC QPF FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN THE FCST.
OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SOME OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT COULD EVEN HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET SINCE THE CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY /BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/...SO PTYPE LOOKS TO BE AN
ISSUE. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH AND A DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FCST
AREA...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY NIGHTFALL...AND 1-4" TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE
HERE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING COUPLED WITH
THE VORTICTY ADVECTION. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/QG OMEGA WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE FGEN PROFILES INDICATE SOME BANDS OF
SNOW MAY FORM...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES ACROSS SE PA AND THE
DELMARVA REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE FORMS AND
WERE IT TRACKS FROM THERE. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS FAVOR
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFAL FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED! MORE
DISCUSSION ON THIS STORM IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS STILL WILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY...LOWERING TO LIKELY POPS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IN ALL AREAS. THE NAM
WAS PRODUCING SOME MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IT SEEMED TO
BE AN OUTLIER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 5 ABOVE TO THE TEENS.
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO
10 ABOVE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
(AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. AFTER
18Z-21Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 6KT OR
LESS...THEN PICK UP TO 5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
811 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015/
.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
.DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THEN SOME WET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY RELAX OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO SWING FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
FROM A BREEZY CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 10 MPH BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO LATE THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ON
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY END OF THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 7 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN SCA WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT FOR WINDS AND REMAIN UP FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SCEC CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE
BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 58 73 61 77 / 30 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 60 73 64 77 / 30 10 10 10
MIAMI 61 74 63 78 / 30 10 0 10
NAPLES 53 75 56 78 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
111 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.AVIATION...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE AREA LEAVING ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS KMIA AND KTMB. COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COULD STILL IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A THICK CLOUD
SHIELD HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT AND THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SEEMS UNLIKELY.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE EAST
COAST SITES AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PREVAIL AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH ISOLATED IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. COVERED WITH MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY EXTENDING FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO THE FORT
LAUDERDALE AREA. MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. COMPARISON OF THIS MORNING 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTING SPS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT TODAY`S SOUNDING SHOWS A
STRONG LAPSE RATE OF 7 TO 8 C/KM BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. A POCKET
OF DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT AT THAT LEVEL. THIS COULD ENHANCE SOME
POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. IN
GENERAL, THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
40 TO 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS 40-50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD TECHNICALLY INDUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SOLAR HEATING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FAST ENOUGH THAT WE
DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF GENERALIZED FLOODING. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
CAN SEE SOME BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON THE STREETS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 71 59 72 / 20 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 60 72 61 71 / 30 20 10 10
MIAMI 60 73 60 72 / 30 20 10 10
NAPLES 54 72 53 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
909 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY EXTENDING FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO THE FORT
LAUDERDALE AREA. MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. COMPARISON OF THIS MORNING 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTING SPS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT TODAY`S SOUNDING SHOWS A
STRONG LAPSE RATE OF 7 TO 8 C/KM BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. A POCKET
OF DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT AT THAT LEVEL. THIS COULD ENHANCE SOME
POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. IN
GENERAL, THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
40 TO 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS 40-50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD TECHNICALLY INDUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SOLAR HEATING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FAST ENOUGH THAT WE
DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF GENERALIZED FLOODING. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
CAN SEE SOME BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON THE STREETS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
AVIATION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KAPF HAS VCTS AND
COULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...VCTS NOT ASSIGNED AS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE. REGIONAL WINDS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO SSW AND FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
18Z WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOT RANGE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 61 71 59 / 90 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 60 72 61 / 90 30 20 10
MIAMI 79 60 73 60 / 90 30 20 10
NAPLES 74 54 72 53 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD 84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
445 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AT THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WE FIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE RIDING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS IMPULSE IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCLEMENT/WET WEATHER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN QUITE HEAVY IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RATHER
STRONG LOOKING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVERNIGHT WAS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO IT IS NO WONDER WE SAW SOME DECENT
SIGNATURES ON RADAR. THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR WAS THE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THIS STORMS APPROACHED THE COAST...AND
THIS LIKELY KEPT ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING. THIS SYSTEM
HAD A LOT GOING FOR IT IN ORDER TO PRODUCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT IS NOW OVER THE
PENINSULA...ALONG WITH A LARGE SWATH OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEEP LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HANG
IN OVER OUR REGION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO PIVOT OFF
TO THE EAST. WV IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...INDICATING LARGE SCALE
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE THAT WILL REPLACE
THESE LIFTING FEATURES AS THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST BEFORE
THE DAY IS THROUGH. WE WILL SEE THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREAD OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AND ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST AND WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR CEDAR KEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
NOW MAINLY OVER THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...EVEN FOR
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN A DRYING TREND IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
FOR THE MOST PART...THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MOVES
ASHORE INTO A STABLE SURFACE BASED ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL BE TO PUSH THE
MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN FURTHER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ACTUALLY COLD FRONT AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE BOUNDARY HAS PASSED ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SO
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM I-4 NORTHWARD...ENDING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE POPS BY LATER THIS MORNING...AND
FINALLY ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WOULD SHIFT
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF LEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES BY AROUND
400 PM...ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD IS LIKELY TO END FOR THESE
FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES EVEN EARLIER. WITH THE COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT HOUR TO HOUR...BUT GENERALLY HAVE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH AND LOWER 70S SOUTH DURING THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BRING TEMPS
DOWN SLOWLY AFTER 2 PM...WHICH IS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN A NORMAL
DIURNAL CYCLE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST. CAA
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN
THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA. SO...IT WILL BE COOL NIGHT...WITH MANY
SPOTS NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...AND MANY
SPOTS FURTHER SOUTH SEEING 40S FOR LOWS. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS LIKE
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE CAPTIVA/SANIBEL AREAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY
MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AROUND DAWN...HOWEVER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE A BIT HIGH AND THE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT TIGHT TO ALLOW DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE...APPEARS THE THREAT OF FROST IS ON THE LOW SIDE AND WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
FRIDAY...
A VERY PLEASANT...ALTHOUGH SEASONABLY COOL DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY.
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE TO WARM UP THOSE
CHILLY SUNRISE READINGS. THE SUN WILL THEN MIX WITH SCT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD DIURNAL MIXING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MIDDLE 60S
SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
MORE ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
A TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A DRY COOL AND STABLE NORTH-
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE GA AND NE FL
SPRAWLS ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH A RATHER RELAXED NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. DURING THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...FROM
CANADA..SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...FLATTENING
IT WITH TROUGHINESS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMS BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GA/FL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OUT OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS FL INTO THE
GULF...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THE WEEKEND
FORECAST IS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WARM BUT STAY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR MON-WED: THE WESTERN RIDGE RE-FORMS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS IT FLATTENS SOME. IN
RESPONSE THE EASTERN TROUGHINESS DEEPENS AS IT SLIDES OFF THE COAST
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FL MON AND EARLY TUES WITH
SOME LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS IN
OVER THE GULF BY MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
HEAVIEST RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH TERMINALS
FURTHER SOUTH WILL STILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS ALONG IT. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON THIS
MORNING. RECENTLY HAVE SEEN SOME LIFR CIGS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN RAIN SHIELD TO
THE SOUTH. SO...A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID MORNING FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ/KPGD TO SEE PERIODS OF THESE LOWER CIGS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH NW/N WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW CROSSES FL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH
OVER THE WATERS TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND ROBUST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GULF. SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR REACH CAUTION TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY THEN CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS FL DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER TO
THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY BY MID MORNING...WITH RAINFALL EXITING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES BY TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35% DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 48 67 49 / 50 0 0 0
FMY 75 53 73 51 / 100 0 0 0
GIF 69 47 67 47 / 80 0 0 0
SRQ 70 50 68 49 / 60 0 0 0
BKV 68 42 66 40 / 40 0 0 0
SPG 69 52 66 53 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/MARINE...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
609 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KAPF HAS VCTS AND
COULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...VCTS NOT ASSIGNED AS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE. REGIONAL WINDS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO SSW AND FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
18Z WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOT RANGE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
AVIATION...
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPING FRONT THERE IS A LINE OF CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE OF CONVECTION
COULD ENTER THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND
09Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...VCTS ASSIGNED AT 09Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILARLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH NO VCTS
IN THE TAF`S. WINDS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AROUND 14-15Z TIME
FRAME WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST
BUT VERY BRIEF PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 61 71 59 / 90 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 60 72 61 / 90 30 20 10
MIAMI 79 60 73 60 / 90 30 20 10
NAPLES 74 54 72 53 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPING FRONT THERE IS A LINE OF CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE OF CONVECTION
COULD ENTER THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND
09Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...VCTS ASSIGNED AT 09Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILARLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH NO VCTS
IN THE TAF`S. WINDS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AROUND 14-15Z TIME
FRAME WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST
BUT VERY BRIEF PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 61 71 59 / 80 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 60 72 61 / 70 30 20 10
MIAMI 79 60 73 60 / 70 30 20 10
NAPLES 74 54 72 53 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1236 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL BE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS AFFECTED MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAIN. WE HAVE FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST TO LIKELY SOUTHEAST. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA SO FROZEN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
GONE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT MAYBE AN EXITING SHOWER IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. A VERY DRY
AIR MASS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO
SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE BACK IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AND SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING...PROBABILITY AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW POP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE NE GOMEX...N CENT
FL...AND OFFSHORE SC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
SC AND GA...TRACKING TO THE ENE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MORE FAVORED
SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS OGB. RAIN WILL SHIFT SE OUT OF OUR FA AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS LOW MOVES FARTHER NE OFFSHORE AND AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TODAY FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO NW TO N WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT AS HIGH CENTER BUILDS IN. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE THU NT/EARLY FRI MORN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
616 PM CST
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE TANKED QUICKLY
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN SPITE OF
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES
AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH 20S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION SETTING UP...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT THE SURFACE
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THERE WILL NOT BE A HUGE
PUSH OF WARMTH AND BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED ON THE 00 UTC DVN
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE THAN
EXPECTED...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME
AREAS. TRENDS FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* A SMALL CHANCE FOR IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY INCREASING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER
THE IA/MO BORDER INTO CENTRAL IL. MOIST AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IS OVERRIDING SNOW COVER AND
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. INCOMING DATA FROM THE 00Z DVN WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH
INDICATES A DRY AIR MASS AND ONE THAT SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO QUANTIFY...LIKELY BIASED TOO MOIST DUE TO
THEIR SNOW COVER ANALYSIS. SO HAVE TRENDED SLOWER/LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAN WHAT ALMOST ALL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...WHICH THE PREVIOUS TAFS ALREADY HAD A GOOD TREND IN.
DO THINK THERE COULD BE AT LEAST LIGHT HAZE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...DIMINISHING VISIBILITY NEAR OR INTO THE
MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CATEGORY.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD
LEAD TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET WITH POTENTIALLY FOG.
THERE WILL BE ASCENT IN THE LOW-CLOUDS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP...AND IF THE CLOUDS ARE DEEP ENOUGH...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
628 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
616 PM CST
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE TANKED QUICKLY
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN SPITE OF
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES
AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH 20S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION SETTING UP...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT THE SURFACE
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THERE WILL NOT BE A HUGE
PUSH OF WARMTH AND BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED ON THE 00 UTC DVN
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE THAN
EXPECTED...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME
AREAS. TRENDS FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* A CHANCE FOR IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL THEN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER NEAR
THE IA/MO BORDER INTO CENTRAL IL. MOIST AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IS OVERRIDING SNOW COVER AND
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. INCOMING DATA FROM THE 00Z DVN WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH
INDICATES A DRY AIR MASS AND ONE THAT SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO QUANTIFY...LIKELY BIASED TOO MOIST DUE TO
THEIR SNOW COVER ANALYSIS. SO HAVE TRENDED SLOWER/LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAN WHAT ALMOST ALL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...WHICH THE PREVIOUS TAFS ALREADY HAD A GOOD TREND IN.
DO THINK THERE COULD BE AT LEAST LIGHT HAZE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...DIMINISHING VISIBILITY NEAR OR INTO THE
MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CATEGORY.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD
LEAD TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET WITH POTENTIALLY FOG.
THERE WILL BE ASCENT IN THE LOW-CLOUDS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP...AND IF THE CLOUDS ARE DEEP ENOUGH...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOW-MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* A CHANCE FOR IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL THEN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER NEAR
THE IA/MO BORDER INTO CENTRAL IL. MOIST AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IS OVERRIDING SNOW COVER AND
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. INCOMING DATA FROM THE 00Z DVN WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH
INDICATES A DRY AIR MASS AND ONE THAT SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO QUANTIFY...LIKELY BIASED TOO MOIST DUE TO
THEIR SNOW COVER ANALYSIS. SO HAVE TRENDED SLOWER/LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAN WHAT ALMOST ALL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...WHICH THE PREVIOUS TAFS ALREADY HAD A GOOD TREND IN.
DO THINK THERE COULD BE AT LEAST LIGHT HAZE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...DIMINISHING VISIBILITY NEAR OR INTO THE
MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CATEGORY.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD
LEAD TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET WITH POTENTIALLY FOG.
THERE WILL BE ASCENT IN THE LOW-CLOUDS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP...AND IF THE CLOUDS ARE DEEP ENOUGH...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME DRIZZLE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOW-MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
837 PM CST
WE HAVE OPTED NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...I HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AS THE
EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
DECOUPLING TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH I DID NOT ALTER FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MUCH...THE LIGHTER WINDS (5KT OR LESS) SHOULD HELP
KEEP WIND CHILLS AT...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 BELOW IN MOST
AREAS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 PM CST
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN COLD TEMPS AND LOW
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...MODERATE SNOW STEADILY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PUSHING THROUGH AREAS FROM GIBSON
CITY TO RENSSELAER. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE PERSISTENT FGEN
DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SNOW
TO EXIT TO THE CWA AROUND THE 23Z TIME THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WHERE
ONE HALF MILE TO THREE QUARTER MILE VIS IS STILL BE OBSERVED. END
TIMING FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES END
TIME OF 23Z ALSO STILL APPEARING GOOD. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
COULD STILL PERSIST SLIGHTLY JUST BEYOND 23Z...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
NO MORE THAN A HALF HOUR OF SNOW. THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SNOW WILL
LEAVE MOST LOCATIONS DRY LATER THIS EVENING BUT WITH COLDER AIR
SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT...MAINLY PORTER
COUNTY. BEST FOCUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
BUT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL STILL
POSSIBLE.
THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR...CLEARING SKIES...AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER COLD
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THIS EVENING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OBSERVING SUBZERO LOWS TONIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS LOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND LIKELY REMAINING UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER. HAD DEBATED
ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
COUNTIES BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT DO
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...TEMPS DO APPEAR TO BE RATHER
COLD TONIGHT AND COULD SEE THE EVENING CREW ISSUING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE ONGOING WARMING ALOFT...WITH
BACKING WINDS AND STRONG WAA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COULD
HELP PROVIDE WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING
THIS WARMUP. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING TEMPS IN THE MID
30S AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
SATURDAY...DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUIDANCE. I WONDER HOW MUCH
THIS WARMING ALOFT COULD BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...AND THEN
ESPECIALLY WITH A SOLID SNOWPACK IN PLACE. AM MORE FOCUSED ON THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THEN THE UNLIKELY
WARMER TEMPS...AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE MONITORED. ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...BUT WITH ALL
SNOW THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
WHILE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO
10-12KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SAG
TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKE...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING AT THE
SURFACE...SETTING UP A STRONG INVERSION. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND 45 KT JUST ABOVE
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT ARND 3KFT...AND THE INVERSION LAYER
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SO...EXPECT STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE QUIET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THURSDAY
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIP AT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING EAST.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
154 PM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST/WEST GALES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MORE MODEST NORTHEAST-EAST
FLOW ALSO APPEARS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND
HELPING TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE LAKE...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HIGH CENTER OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP AGAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...AS THE HIGH SPREADS SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW-END GALES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND
FAR SOUTH ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...THUS HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS
FROM 3 PM CST THURSDAY THROUGH 3 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
CROSSES THE LAKE.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGGING TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW THEN LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SET
UP A PERIOD OF MODESTLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW...DEPENDING UPON
THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO.
FOR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IL...EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IND. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ICE SEEN IN MODIS POLAR
ORBITER SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING. WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW CURRENT ONE TO PLAY OUT AND ALLOW
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE DURATION OF LESS THAN SCA CRITERIA
THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM
FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1107 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Except for extreme southeast Illinois, the snow has ended early
this evening. Expect the snow to push out of southeast IL in the
next hour as Arctic high settles in from the northwest by Thursday
morning. Very cold temperatures expected across the area tonight
but as the center of the high shifts into west central Illinois by
morning, winds will decrease across the entire forecast area. Wind
chill values will be ranging from -10 to -20 across the far north,
but because of the lighter winds, we are not seeing a prolonged
period of wind chills of less than -15 Thursday morning, so will
not add any headlines across the north at this time. If it appears
winds will hold up longer than currently forecast, will need to
reconsider any wind chill headlines. The critical time period
would be from 2 am until 9 am but current HRRR and Rapid Refresh
guidance suggest winds will be quite light during this time.
As the high settles in from the northwest, clearing will continue
to work its way southeast this evening with most of the area seeing
a clear sky during the early morning hours which should last thru
the day on Thursday. Look for a return southerly flow to start to
setup Thursday afternoon across the west as the center of the cold
air mass shifts off to our east. Have already sent out a couple
of updates with the expiration of the Winter Weather Advisory and
to address precip type issues over far southeast Illinois. Will
be adjusting the ending time over far southeast Illinois along
with some tweaks to the sky and wind grids which will bring about
another ZFP update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Will remove some southern and western counties west of the IL river
from the winter weather advisory that goes until 5 pm this afternoon
for 2-4 inches of snow. A cold front just passed southeast of
Lawrenceville at mid afternoon with a snow band pressing ese to
along I-72 and has been weakening the past few hours. Short wave
shearing out/weakening as it pushes into southeast IL late today and
expect snow band to continue to weaken as well. Could be some light
rain in southeast IL late this afternoon before switching to light
snow, but less than 1 inch of snow accumulations there before ending
by mid evening. Clouds to decrease from the nw later this evening
and overnight as nnw winds 10-20 mph and some higher gusts of 20-25
mph diminish as well especially overnight as 1036 mb arctic high
pressure over the central Dakotas settles to the IA/MO/IL border
area by mid morning Thu. Wind chills approach 15 below zero between
2-9 am north of peoria but will hold off on wind chill advisory as
its a small area and window for this occurrence with winds becoming
light overnight. Lows overnight range from zero to 7 below zero from
Lincoln north to around 10F se of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Morning upper air shows digging shortwave through ND into MN
tracking southeast. Minor wave seen in moisture channel satellite
moving east from eastern NE to IA. Upper level jet streak in WY-NE.
Upper waves have triggered enough lift north of the southwest MO to
central IL surface front. 850mb shows weak fetch of moisture into
the region, triggering the snow development and moving it over
region through the day.
Overnight system will continue to track to the east, with snow
tappering off and moving to east. this will allow frigid 850mb cold
air to flow into area overnight, with high center by morning over
region, resulting in wind chill advisory over northern sections.
Models consistant in continued upper level northwest flow, which
will push high center to east and allow weak southerly low level
flow for late in the week through start of weekend.
For weekend, weak wave develops surface low on front, moves over
central IL. Very little upper support for feature, so lowered pops
Sat night, Sun, and Sun night to slight chance. For Wed, more
significant wave moves through the Great Lakes with trailing cold
front. With continue slight chance pops with front passage.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period (06z
Fri). Arctic high pressure will push into extreme west central
Illinois by Thursday morning keeping the sky clear with winds
continuing to diminish out of the northwest. The high will
track across the area on Thursday with a mostly clear sky and
light winds. Look for the surface winds to become south at
around 10 kts by afternoon across western Illinois with
the surface flow gradually turning into a southeast to south
direction by late afternoon over eastern Illinois. A southerly
flow will continue into Thursday evening with speeds averaging
from 4 to 9 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
316 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER
20S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS HIGH SINKS
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE
DROP SO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE LOOKING WARM AND JUST A FEW DEGREES UNDER AFTERNOON TEMPS.
ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. HIRES RUC AND HRRR SURFACE
TEMPS EVEN COLDER WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z WITH
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FRESH DEEP
SNOWPACK AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY BUT OFTEN THESE HIRES MODELS CAN
BE ON THE EXTREME SIDE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH
REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE TEENS LATER TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO STILL LIMIT REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SOMEWHAT.
MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LIKELY
INTO THE 20S. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT LOWER
30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
FLATTER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH POLAR JET AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPS AND OVERALL FEEL WILL
LIKELY TO BE PLAGUED BY LOW STRATUS (ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST) AS
WAA ALOFT AND SNOW MELT HELPS LOCK IN MOISTURE WITHIN SHALLOW
INVERSION. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN APPEAR LOW THROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
MORE FOCUSED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP NORTH OF THE
IWX CWA. HOWEVER...ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SHALLOW/MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT ICING FAR NE IN/FAR NW OH/LOWER MI INTO SUNDAY).
A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO FORCE A STRONGER FRONTAL
WAVE ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK
WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE (AGAIN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN
NORTH) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
NORTH TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA ENSUES
WITHIN PIVOTING DEFORMATION. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME
BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY POPS GIVEN LINGERING MODEL SPREAD AND
NORTHERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...COOLER/DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RENEWED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSBN FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS WHERE A BROKEN MVFR DECK JUST TO WEST OF AIRPORT
COULD DRIFT BACK EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING ENTIRELY. WILL HAVE A
BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
THROUGH MID EVENING THEN 5 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN
COLORADO. INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING... THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL I AM EXPECTING
MINIMAL IMPACT AS TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WAA WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TOWARDS
THE CO/KS BORDER AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED WAA/TEMPS ALOFT...WE
COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
TODAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FRIDAY AND NEAR 80F ON
SATURDAY. TD VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING UNDER
THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA (15 PERCENT). WITH GENERALLY WEAK
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND LIMITED WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT...I AM NOT EXPECTING THE WIND/RH CROSSOVER NEEDED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BROAD RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A 700/500MB SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
REGION...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PART OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
ROLL SOUTH FORMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. BY DOING THIS...MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMNANTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
TRI STATE REGION. WITH LIMITED QPF...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RW/SW IN NE COLORADO INITIALLY AS SYSTEM WORKS OFF
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY SE ZONES SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE
TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. W/ LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RANGE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...AND NEAR 10-15 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAA DOES
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE...SO DO EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS.
LIGHT WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY FEB 6...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY FEB 7...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
435 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN
COLORADO. INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING... THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL I AM EXPECTING
MINIMAL IMPACT AS TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WAA WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TOWARDS
THE CO/KS BORDER AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED WAA/TEMPS ALOFT...WE
COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
TODAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FRIDAY AND NEAR 80F ON
SATURDAY. TD VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING UNDER
THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA (15 PERCENT). WITH GENERALLY WEAK
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND LIMITED WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT...I AM NOT EXPECTING THE WIND/RH CROSSOVER NEEDED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BROAD RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A 700/500MB SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
REGION...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PART OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
ROLL SOUTH FORMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. BY DOING THIS...MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMNANTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
TRI STATE REGION. WITH LIMITED QPF...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RW/SW IN NE COLORADO INITIALLY AS SYSTEM WORKS OFF
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY SE ZONES SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE
TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. W/ LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RANGE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...AND NEAR 10-15 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAA DOES
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE...SO DO EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS DEEP
DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO REGION. GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 12KT THEN PREVAILING AFTER 15-17Z. COULD SEE
SOME SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY OR WESTERLY DIRECTION AT
TIMES...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY FEB 6...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY FEB 7...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN
COLORADO. INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING... THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL I AM EXPECTING
MINIMAL IMPACT AS TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WAA WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TOWARDS
THE CO/KS BORDER AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED WAA/TEMPS ALOFT...WE
COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
TODAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FRIDAY AND NEAR 80F ON
SATURDAY. TD VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING UNDER
THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA (15 PERCENT). WITH GENERALLY WEAK
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND LIMITED WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT...I AM NOT EXPECTING THE WIND/RH CROSSOVER NEEDED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BROAD RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A 700/500MB SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
REGION...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PART OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
ROLL SOUTH FORMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. BY DOING THIS...MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMNANTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
TRI STATE REGION. WITH LIMITED QPF...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RW/SW IN NE COLORADO INITIALLY AS SYSTEM WORKS OFF
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY SE ZONES SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE
TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. W/ LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RANGE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...AND NEAR 10-15 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAA DOES
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE...SO DO EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK ALTHOUGH SOME MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY FEB 6...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY FEB 7...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
956 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
RADAR RETURNS INDICATED LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
IR IMAGERY INDICATED OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
AREA. RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STEADY
PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL STREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT.
ALL SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME FOG POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT SEEM TO SHOW
A WELL DEFINED SATURATED LAYER OVER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...SO
NO FOG IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE MID MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH WARM FRONT.
A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOPPING THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
ABOVE 7KFT AGL. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK ALTHOUGH SOME MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
118 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE SC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING NNE
ALONG COASTAL FRONT ORIENTED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH
UP FROM COASTAL GA/SC INTO COASTAL SE NC AT 02Z. RUC COND PRES DEF
AND 295-305K ISENTROPIC SFC FIELDS ALL SHOWING RAIN ASCENDING THE
NC CRYSTAL COAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN MOVING
ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR AREA MAINLY SE OF HWY 158 ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC FROM AROUND 11 PM THROUGH 2-3AM...
EVENTUALLY BRINGING LOWERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN CHCS TO FAR
E-SE VA FROM 12 AM THROUGH DAWN THU MORNING. ACCORDINGLY, LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS 70-90% CONTINUE ACROSS (CSTL) NE NC ZONES
OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT). HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST INLAND
WITH FORECAST MODELS/SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ORIENTING
SHRAS ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY THU. HOWEVER, HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER PER LATEST SAT IMAGERY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
CDFNT TO THE WEST ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK THU IN FAR W-NW PORTIONS
OF THE FA. BUFR SOUNDINGS OVER EASTERN SHORE LOCATIONS AND HRRR
BOTH INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/SLEET
PELLETS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH TO OVERCAST SOUTH WITH EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS FM LOW TO MID
30S NW TO ~40 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LO PRES MOVES OUT TO SEA THU...W/ ARCTIC CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH
THE FA. HANGING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC POPS AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN THE
MRNG...OTRW VRB CLDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHWRS W/ OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
CDFNT. WILL HAVE MIXED RA/SN FOR NE SECTIONS OF FA AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. CLEARING XPCD FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN FM W-E AS NW WNDS
BECOME GUSTY TO 30 TO 40 MPH. HI TEMPS TO BE REACHED IN THE
MRNG/MIDDAY...THEN FALL OFF (BY LT IN THE AFTN). HI TEMPS IN THE
M/U30S NW TO THE M40S SE.
CANADIAN SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW BEGINNING THU EVE AND
SETTLES OVER THE REGION LT THU NGT THROUGH FRI. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
DIMINISH (TO LGT W OF THE BAY) AFT MDNGT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NR
MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MNLY SKC W/ LO TEMPS MNLY 15 TO 20F.
MSTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY FRI AS WNDS ARE SLOW TO BECOME SW. HI TEMPS
FM 35 TO 40F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M/U40S (WELL) INLAND. SFC HI
PRES RMNS TO THE S OF THE RGN FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...RESULTING IN
CONTD MODERATION. SEASONABLY COLD FRI NGT UNDER CLR-PCLDY
CONDS...W/ LO TEMPS MNLY FM 25 TO 30F. PARTLY SUNNY...MILDER
AGAIN SAT W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M/U40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M50S
(WELL) INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHES FM THE W AND DEVELOPS A SFC LO OVER THE REGION BY MON.
FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE OH VALLEY. WITH
S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S
EVERYWHERE TO NR 60 OVER SRN AREAS ON SUN. PCPN ARRIVE LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT...IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN AS THE FA INITIALLY IS
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR. GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN (50% POPS) THEN
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE SFC LO AND ASSOCIATED UPR-LEVEL TROF
SLIDE THRU THE AREA. TRACK OF THIS SFC LO AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT CAN MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LO WHILE PCPN
CONTINUES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY WINTER WX OCCURS. FOR
NOW...FORECAST CALLS FOR RAIN SE HALF OF AREA AND RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
NW HALF OF AREA FOR MON NIGHT/TUE. CONDS THEN DRY OUT FOR TUE NGT
AND WED AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN WILL IMPACT KECG...AND POSSIBLY KORF DURING THIS TIME. MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR AT KECG...AND IF ANY LIGHT RAIN REACHES KORF AM
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. OTW...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AT REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POISED TO PASS OVER THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT. GUSTS SHOULD AVERAGE 30-35 KT BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR BY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPING LO
PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY.
THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TNGT/THU MORNG...AS LO
PRES SLIDES UP THE SE COASTLINE. AS FOR HEADLINES...MAINTAINED ALL
PREVIOUS HAZARDS WITH A GALE WARNING OVER THE BAY/SOUND/OCEAN AND
A SCA OVER THE RIVERS. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED OVER THE BAY
AND CSTL WTRS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVENG...WITH WINDS THEN SUBSIDING
LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS UP TO 7-9 FT OUT 20 NM. SFC HI PRES AND IMPROVING MARINE
CONDS THEN FOR FRI AND SAT. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
245 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN IS IN PLACE...WITH STRONG FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING WIND
HIGHLITES WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN BILLINGS
WHERE A SOUTHERLY CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE HAS KEPT STRONGER WINDS
FROM MIXING DOWN AND THUS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AT 1PM. AS WITH
LAST NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE SOME WARMING THIS EVENING AS AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT MIXED TO A STRONGER AND MORE WESTERLY WIND SHOULD...ONCE
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG IN
THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE VICINITIES. CURRENTLY SEEING PERIODIC GUSTS
TO 58 MPH IN LIVINGSTON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS 70-80KT
700MB WINDS PUSH THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS THAT NORMALLY
SEE LITTLE WIND INCLUDING RED LODGE AN SHERIDAN. INCREASED WINDS
IN THESE LOCATIONS TO GET SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN
THE FORECAST. LATEST RUC SOUNDING FOR SHERIDAN SHOWS A PLUG OF 50
TO 60KT WINDS AT 900 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE SHERIDANS ELEVATION. ITS
POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD PUSH DOWN INTO SHERIDAN (AS
WELL AS RED LODGE) BUT IT MAY ALSO HANG UP IN THE FOOTHILLS JUST
ABOVE THE CITY ELEVATION. THESE MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE NOTORIOUSLY
TOUGH TO PREDICT AND TEND TO HAVE A HIGH FALSE ALARM RATE.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT NOT GOING TO THE FULL
POTENTIAL THE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED. EVENING SHIFT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND ISSUE HIGHLITES IF NECESSARY.
THOSE LIVING IN THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS WIND
POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS ON THEIR PROPERTY JUST IN CASE.
FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME STRONG
FOOTHILLS WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE SPREADING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH RECORD
TERRITORY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. YET ANOTHER WIND
PRODUCING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING
STRONG WINDS GOING LIVINGSTON TO NYE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON
AS WELL AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE LOCATIONS TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
COMPLICATE DYNAMICS THAT WOULD NORMALLY POINT TO THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON CORRIDOR.
THUS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WIND HIGHLITES FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL A
BIT CLOSER TO THE STRONG WINDS ARRIVING...BUT IF GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT WILL LIKELY NEED THEM.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE GENERATED
STRONG WINDS SETTLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND PUSHING WELL OUT
INTO THE PLAINS AS VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO WORK DOWN AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT FRONT JET DYNAMICS COMBINE TO ADD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD VERY CLOSELY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
SET THE TABLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...A
GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE MOUNTAINS (WEST FACING SLOPES) AND
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS WITH ADDITIONAL
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
IN SUMMARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO BE WIND AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM
SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ALONG
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. IF YOU LIVE NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS BE AWARE
OF THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE TROF OFF THE
PAC COAST AND COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM
SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH WOULD CAUSE
STRONGER MIXING AND WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW NO SUCH FEATURE ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS A
BIT ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT MIXING.
PAC TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ALLOWING FOR HEIGHT FALLS AND
A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. OUR WESTERN MTNS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW HERE
AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS.
THOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY WILLS SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS CANADIAN
SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN MT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TIMING OF THIS COOLING TREND...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ITS MAGNITUDE.
THE GFS SHOWS A COLD 1050+ MB HIGH SLIDING INTO ND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH
AND THUS NOT NEARLY AS COLD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY
LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TEMPS TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...SO MUST
STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS THAT OF COOLING SO
HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS DOWN SOME ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
EAST HALF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ACTUALLY SHOULD START
SEEING A WARMING TREND AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...NOT SEEING ANYTHING DYNAMIC BUT ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. SHOULD SEE DRYING
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BROKEN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL GUST FROM 40-55
KTS AT KLVM AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/060 044/062 038/058 035/054 037/050 026/040 027/046
00/N 01/N 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B
LVM 043/061 052/059 042/055 035/052 037/050 025/041 028/051
00/N 12/W 12/W 12/W 32/W 21/B 11/B
HDN 033/056 037/058 033/056 029/054 032/050 022/041 023/043
00/B 01/B 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B
MLS 030/053 038/056 034/054 030/050 031/044 019/036 017/039
00/B 02/W 21/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 01/B
4BQ 034/061 041/060 035/058 032/057 034/050 021/038 021/045
00/B 02/W 11/B 00/U 22/W 21/B 11/B
BHK 030/054 038/056 034/052 027/048 029/043 018/032 013/037
00/B 02/W 21/B 01/U 22/W 11/B 00/B
SHR 032/060 038/059 033/057 028/055 028/050 022/041 020/045
00/B 01/N 11/B 00/B 22/W 31/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1150 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...A
FRESH NORTHERLY WIND WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW...SENDING AIR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1130 PM...AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
REGION HOWEVER THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW DUE TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS LAKE ENAHNCEMENT...UPSLOPING...AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN ALSO BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY ONCE THIS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE ACTION. THIS IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE HRRR AND IN A
GENERAL SENSE BY THE NAM/RGEM.
INITIALLY...IT WILL BE TOO DRY AND NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL RAPIDLY AND MOISTURE WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE BY LATE TONIGHT. A NORTH- NORTHWEST WIND WILL BRING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HILLS OF SW NYS
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALSO
SUGGESTING THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON WILL ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SUCH THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME. FAVOR THE RGEM/NAM OVER THE HRRR AT
THIS POINT SINCE THE HRRR SEEMS A BIT TOO SLOW TO REDEVELOP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED IN AN
OTHERWISE MULTIBANDED SET UP. THIS NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION MAY GENERATE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW FROM NEAR ORLEANS COUNTY...SHIFTING TO THE CAYUGA/OSWEGO COUNTY
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS MUCH COLDER
AIR ALOFT FLOODS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES AT 850
HPA TOMORROW WILL DROP TO AROUND -22C. UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW FROM THE
DAYBREAK VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TAKING ON A DIMINISHING TREND AS INVERSION HEIGHTS START TO
LOWER...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO SET UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CLIPPER LOW WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FROM EAST OF ROCHESTER THROUGH WAYNE TO
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. THE BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT THE WEAKENING LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARD...REACHING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY CREST
OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOWPACK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
ZERO INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY FALLING INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR EVEN COLDER. AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL START TO
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE RISING
TEMPERATURES...THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN LATER FORECASTS.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST AREAS...OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES. A COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE LAKE SNOWS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION THERE.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES GET
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR A SERIES OF PACIFIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING TIMING OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVES WITHIN THIS PATTERN...AND THUS DIFFICULTY EXISTS IN
TIMING THE PERIODIC STRONGER FORCING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS
UNCERTAIN...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR PERIODS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BY TUESDAY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN AS A CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST...TAKING THE BULK OF THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO OUR EAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 0430Z...IFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR ENTERING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD KEY A RISE IN VSBY/CIGS...WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...BUT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
JHW/ROC.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY. MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SHIFT TO NW WINDS AND A BRIEF UPTICK IN
WIND SPEED. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY- WORTHY WINDS
AND WAVES TO AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY SLACKENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES TOWARDS THE LAKES TOMORROW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
010>014-019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ002>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGH...AND REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE
AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INDICATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION NEAR
AND OFFSHORE OF KILM AND KOAJ HAS EXPANDED NOTICEABLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY
A LOCALIZED REGION OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A LARGER MORE
FAVORABLE REGION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. RECENT NWP GUIDANCE HAS
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SHARP WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD LINE UP NEAR I-95. RECENT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDE AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE WESTERN BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN SAMPSON AND EASTERN
WAYNE COUNTY. LATEST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN MAY PERSIST TO AROUND 11-13Z IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES...SO
HAVE EXTENDED POPS TO AROUND DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. -BLAES
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: PRECIP OVER THE FAR ERN FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE DEPARTING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THU MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE
COAST PRIOR TO THU MORNING. BUT THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF... EXPECTED TO PUSH NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC THU MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA... WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO MAINLY A NNW OR
NORTHERLY DIRECTION... WITH STRENGTHENING SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES IN FULL FORCE. WE SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC THU... HOWEVER MODEL BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 24-28 KT
RANGE THU... IN LINE WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS... ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ALONG
THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
SOURCE OF THE INCOMING AIR MASS... HAVE GONE ON THE COOLER END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THU... FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO NEAR 50
SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD TREND TO CLEAR BY LATE THU AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRYING AND STABILIZING COLUMN... AND WINDS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 1260S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WEATHER WISE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SITS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A DRY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT...POSSIBLY OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED...THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN FULL INSOLATION
WOULD SUGGEST. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING AS A SMALLER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF A UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES. THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THAT MAY SEE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. STILL...EXPECT AN ALMOST 10
DEGREE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE
LONG TERM WITH A STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-
ATLANTIC PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BUT MOST OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING BEGINS AND NORTHWESTERLIES GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLIES...THUS CREATING A DEEPER LAYER OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPEN THUS CREATING A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT
OVER CENTRAL NC. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM UNTIL MONDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC...IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT MODELS DIVERGE AS TO THE INITIAL
LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER
THE CAROLINAS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HPC MODEL ANALYSIS
FAVORS THE SLOWER GFS AT THIS POINT AS OPPOSED TO THE 00 RUN OF THE
ECMWF. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN HAS CONTINUED TO BE A FAST OUTLIER
AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST PACKAGE FROM HERE ON OUT WILL BE BASED ON
THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE AND HPC GUIDANCE. THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE A SLOWER SYSTEM THAT DELAYS THE ONSET OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH
MORE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WITH LOWER DECKS THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOME BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TIMING WILL DEPEND
ON MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION...WILL INCREASE POPS
MONDAY MORNING BUT MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY GOOD SATURATION UP THROUGH ALMOST 500 MB AND PW
VALUES OF 0.75 INCHES. THAT BEING SAID THE EURO IS MUCH DRIER AND
THESE DETAILS ARE BETTER LEFT TO BE IRONED OUT LATER. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS FRONTAL PASSAGE ISNT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT SO NO P-TYPE ISSUES AT THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH COLDER (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S)
WETBULBS AND SURFACE TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE MODERATELY COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER
WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE OVER THE EAST COAST...CLEARING THINGS OUT. IN ADDITION SURFACE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE BY THE AFTERNOON BRINING GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR INSOLATION RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NE TO
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
HAS SPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR WEST AS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC. THIS PRECIPITATION IS QUITE
LIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE PRECIPITATION AND THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KFAY AND KRWI BY 09Z AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
BLUSTERY NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z-22Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THE
BLUSTERY NLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SWLY WINDS WILL BE A TAD
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY GUSTING 17-20KTS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SWD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS BY MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLAES/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1217 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHING IN FROM THE
WEST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
WHILE IT`S BEEN RAINING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AND MORE RECENTLY COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA...PRECIPITATION HAS
NOT SPREAD INLAND ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND RECENT HRRR RUNS
SUGGEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z (MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM THURSDAY) WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR...SO I HAVE NOT REMOVED POPS HERE ENTIRELY. I HAVE
HOWEVER TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON...WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES. LOW PRESSURE IS VERY
CLOSE TO CAPE FEAR WITH SOUTH WINDS NOW OBSERVED AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THESE SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM
FOLLOWS...
RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED VIA WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
800-600 MB LAYER...OR MORE PRECISELY THROUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING ALONG THE 300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE BEST LIFT IS
SHOWN IN ALL RECENT MODEL OUTPUT TO OCCUR NOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME DRYING IS SLOW TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BUT THE LESSER DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GA/SC COAST
ALONG A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT COULD MAKE IT TO WITHIN
10 MILES OF THE SE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
LOW ZIPS NORTH AND PULLS THE THE BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS ITS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED OFF THE EAST
COAST INTO OUR DEVELOPING STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW.
WITH THIS UPDATE I HAVE MAINTAINED 100 POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES. FARTHER INLAND RADAR
TRENDS AND RECENT MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE IT MAY BE HARD TO GET
MEASURABLE RAIN WEST OF I-95...AND I HAVE NUDGED DOWN FORECAST POPS
HERE INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS LIKE BENNETTSVILLE AND
HARTSVILLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT
APPROACH THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EITHER ONSHORE OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT...IMPLYING NO CHANCE OF THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PUSHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THURS MORNING. A DEEP NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURS MORNING ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW EVEN BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FLOW OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED LATER IN THE DAY AS DEEP TROUGH
DRIVES COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING A DEEP
DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET THROUGH
THURS AS COLUMN DRIES OUT. THEREFORE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURS. MOST PLACES WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH
PAST 50 AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH LATE THURS
AFTN INTO THE EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURS NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN AND
ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE BY LATE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CAA TO
START AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER ON WILL BRING TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRI
BUT ESSENTIALLY WILL BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AS COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. COLUMN
REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGIT DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...BUT A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 20S BY FRI NIGHT. A MINOR
PERTURBATION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FRI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF SHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BUT OVERALL
EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A NICE EARLY-FEBRUARY WEEKEND ON TAP
LOCALLY AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW PUSHES A HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL CREATE A DRY COLUMN WITH SURFACE
WAA...AND SEASONABLE-TO-ABOVE-SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF
THE TWO DAYS...BUT BOTH WILL BE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING VORTICITY IMPULSE DIVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL BECOME A STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY TOO LATE TO AFFECT THE CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. HOWEVER...CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH THIS DEEPENING FEATURE WILL
CROSS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAINFALL...BUT
QPF IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEY WILL CRASH QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TONIGHT...BRINGING IN BATCHES OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS A GOOD BET. ALL THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST BY 16Z...WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO SCATTER AFTER THAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 8-9 KTS BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH SUN. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
THE COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED UP TO THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH
CAROLINA WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH SHOWING
A SOUTH WIND AT JOHNNIE MERCER PIER. THE LOW IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR
CAPE FEAR AT THE MOMENT...AND ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW
THE FRONT TO KICK BACK OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM
THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS NECESSITATED BY THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THE COASTAL FRONT...FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...
A COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY
LOCATION WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOW BEING REPORTED. LOW
PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THIS FRONT WILL ZIP
NORTHWARD...PASSING NORTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY NORTHWARD
INTO THE ZIPPER LOW...HELPING DEVELOP IT INTO A STRONG NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SC COAST SHOULD BACK AROUND TO
THE NW FOLLOWING THE LOW`S PASSAGE. THINGS COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT COULD GET
QUITE FAR INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING... BEFORE THE NW WINDS PUNCH IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE
STRONGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE SEAS OUT THERE...SOME OF WHICH WILL PROPAGATE
WESTWARD INTO THE WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. I WILL MAINTAIN THE `EXERCISE CAUTION` HEADLINE FOR THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FOR 4-5 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PUSHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THURS MORNING. DEEP NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD REACH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS
BY NOON TIME ON THURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON UNTIL 1 AM FRI. CANT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING GRADIENT TO RELAX
OVERNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE MARKEDLY
OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS
IN THE OUTER WATERS JUST REACHING NEAR 6 FT THURS AFTN AND COMING
BACK DOWN RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OF FRI WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH A WEAK WESTERLY RETURN
FLOW FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI
MORNING AND DOWN BELOW 3 FT BY FRI EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SW RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. INITIALLY THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY TO AROUND 20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FROPA LATE MONDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AT JUST 1-2 FT THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY...BUT WILL CLIMB STEADILY TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MAY TICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. ATTM NO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD.
A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...ARCHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT 60 IN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AS OF 20 UTC ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND STRATUS...HIGHS QUICKLY DROP OFF ALL THE WAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE STATUS FIELD ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS FIELD HAS NEARLY HALTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS NOW ONLY SUGGEST THE
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE
SAKAKAWEA LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND
FOG FORMATION UNDER MUCH OF THE BANK TONIGHT. BY 08-09 UTC
TONIGHT...THE RAP/HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM ALL POINT TO THE STRATUS
AND FOG BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO BISECT LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
FOR SATURDAY...MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER IS FORECAST BE IN THE 50S WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION - SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SNOW AN
FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW AT VARIOUS
TIME PERIODS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP IN A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. SATURDAY EVENING THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY FROM CROSBY/WILLISTON TO MANDAN/BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN/OAKES.
LARGE VARIATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY...TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS VARYING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...EMERGING IN
THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...OR SLEET NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
SOUTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
CREEP INTO KISN-KBIS-KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MVFR CIGS SAGGING INTO KISN-KBIS...BUT KJMS SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER KDIK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
610 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD.
A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...ARCHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT 60 IN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AS OF 20 UTC ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND STRATUS...HIGHS QUICKLY DROP OFF ALL THE WAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE STATUS FIELD ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS FIELD HAS NEARLY HALTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS NOW ONLY SUGGEST THE
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE
SAKAKAWEA LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND
FOG FORMATION UNDER MUCH OF THE BANK TONIGHT. BY 08-09 UTC
TONIGHT...THE RAP/HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM ALL POINT TO THE STRATUS
AND FOG BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO BISECT LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
FOR SATURDAY...MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER IS FORECAST BE IN THE 50S WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION - SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SNOW AN
FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW AT VARIOUS
TIME PERIODS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP IN A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. SATURDAY EVENING THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY FROM CROSBY/WILLISTON TO MANDAN/BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN/OAKES.
LARGE VARIATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY...TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS VARYING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...EMERGING IN
THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...OR SLEET NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
SOUTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
CREEP INTO KISN-KBIS-KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR MVFR CIGS SAGGING INTO KISN-KBIS...BUT KJMS SHOULD SEE
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER KDIK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
907 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COLLECTING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SOME FLURRIES TO AFFECT THE FAR NE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SW WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR A CHANGE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD ZONAL FLOW BUT
THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS A FAST MOVING PERTURBATION MOVES EAST INTO
THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA.
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THIS IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHO WILL WIN THE BATTLE.
STILL CONCERNED THAT COLD AIR BUILDING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MAY
UNDERCUT THE WARM AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CONCERN IS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. SO WILL BE LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF EITHER FROZEN
OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND NO FREEZING PRECIPITATION. BUT THIS
STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
AFTER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS STORM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AT THIS POINT KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOWBELT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEING. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK
INTO THE TEENS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT
00Z WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. HRRR DEVELOPS MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA FROM MFD AND
MNN TO TOL 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...MOVING IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS MORE MILD AIR OVERRUNS THE SNOWPACK. COULD SEE A
EARLY MORNING BREAK TO VFR HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO FILL BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THEN WOBBLE
EITHER SIDE OF LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRACK FOR
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
643 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COLLECTING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SOME FLURRIES TO AFFECT THE FAR NE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SW WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR A CHANGE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD ZONAL FLOW BUT
THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS A FAST MOVING PERTURBATION MOVES EAST INTO
THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA.
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THIS IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHO WILL WIN THE BATTLE.
STILL CONCERNED THAT COLD AIR BUILDING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MAY
UNDERCUT THE WARM AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CONCERN IS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. SO WILL BE LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF EITHER FROZEN
OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND NO FREEZING PRECIPITATION. BUT THIS
STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
AFTER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS STORM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AT THIS POINT KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOWBELT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEING. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK
INTO THE TEENS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT
00Z WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. HRRR DEVELOPS MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA FROM MFD AND
MNN TO TOL 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...MOVING IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS MORE MILD AIR OVERRUNS THE SNOWPACK. COULD SEE A
EARLY MORNING BREAK TO VFR HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO FILL BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THEN WOBBLE
EITHER SIDE OF LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRACK FOR
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1026 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
STREAKY SNOW BANDS THIS MORNING SHIFTING INTO THE N MOUNTAINS AS
VORT MAX AND S/W TROF AXIS SHIFTS E. HAVE SOME DETERMINISTIC POPS
INTO EARLY AFTN FOR THESE SHSN...WHICH WILL LOCALLY PRODUCE
REDUCED VSBY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COATINGS. THE DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT THOUGH...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...SUNSHINE WILL BECOME THE RULE WITH TEMPS STAYING IN A
NEAR STEADY STATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND CROSSES
THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO END PCPN QUICKER BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
IN ADDITION...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO...AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM MINUS 10 TO MINUS 17 ACROSS RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES FROM 9
PM TONIGHT TO 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND CROSSES
THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/05/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H L L H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/ARJ/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
318 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO END PCPN QUICKER BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
IN ADDITION...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO...AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM MINUS 10 TO MINUS 17 ACROSS RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES FROM 9
PM TONIGHT TO 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CROSSES FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH A NICE HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/05/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H L L H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/ARJ/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1248 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CROSSES FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH A NICE HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/05/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L H M M M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/ARJ/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
251 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS ARE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN SISKYOU COUNTY
AND MOUNT SHASTA REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COAST FROM
CAPE BLANCO TOWARDS GOLD BEACH, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED
AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OF BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE ON
SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NEAR
130W WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST,
HEADLANDS AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS. BELOW, WE`LL ADDRESS THE
RAIN AND WIND IMPACT.
RAIN: MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTH
COAST, COAST RANGE, WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THE HARDEST.
THE WPC QPF FORECAST IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC,
BUT THEY SHOW HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW, THUS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION RATES. FORECASTED RAIN TOTAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE AS FOLLOWS: 5-8 INCHES FOR THE COAST, COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT TOTALS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY BUT TOTALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT WITH 1.50 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND 0.25 TO AN INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH JUST NEAR CHILOQUIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN/SOUTH SISKIYOU COUNTY. FLOOD CONCERNS STILL
EXIST, THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN
SCARS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. DETAILS FOR ALL OF THE PRODUCTS
CAN BE FOUND AT FFAMFR. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OT FRIDAY
IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
OF NOTE, THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN
INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND IT SUGGEST THE
MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WILL COME IN TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT EAST WITH
OFF/ON RAIN BEHIND IT LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN
QPF AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. -PETRUCELLI
.WIND...THE SHASTA VALLEY IS ALREADY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND OF
SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY
LIKELY TO SEE SUSTAINED 40 TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. BY FRIDAY MORNING
EVEN THE YREKA AREA COULD SEE SUSTAINED WIND 35 TO 45 MPH.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WIND READING SHOWS 45 MPH WINDS NEAR CAPE
BLANCO. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATION NEAR THE CAPE. WITH
BUOY 15 OFF PORT ORFORD EXPERIENCING WIND GUST TO 55 MPH..EXPECT
COASTAL JET TO BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVERNIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL
BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF COOS BAY THROUGH CAPE BLANCO INTO PORT ORFORD
AND GOLD BEACH. WINDS SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 70
MPH. TRAFFIC ALONG HWY 140 COULD BE AFFECTED ESPECIALLY DURING THE
STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY THAT IS EXPOSED. THIS WILL BE MAINLY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONG WINDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WE EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR MEDFORD
AIRPORT SHOWS WE COULD SEE WIND GUST TO 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS GUST SPEED IS LOWER THAN THE
CUSTOMARY HIGH WIND CRITERIA..BECAUSE THE GUST IS EXPECTED IN THE
POPULATED AREA WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING TO ERROR ON THE
SAFE SIDE. /FB
A DRYING TREND IS STILL IN THE WORKS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET, BUT THERE
WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SPEED SHEAR,
TURBULENCE AND MVFR CIGS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEED SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AT ALL 4 TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND WHILE SOME
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT ROSEGURG MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS AT TIMES. A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS WILL CAUSE A MAJOR LONG-
DURATION WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PEAKING ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST.
ADDITIONALLY...MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED...AS STRONG
SOUTH FLOW IMPACTS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TERRAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PST THURSDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2015...A SERIES OF
STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL BE 16 TO 24 FEET. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LONG DURATION AND
FETCH OF THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY
STEEP AND DANGEROUS SHORT PERIOD SEAS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ030-031-624-625.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021>024-028-615-616-618-619.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026-617-622.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-028-617.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ026-620>622.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ620-621.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ623.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080>083-085-280>282-284-285.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-284.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ080-280.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-280.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
647 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DWINDLING AREA OF POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS IN REGION OF
8-7H FGEN FORCING WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOW...ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
ARCTIC AIR MASS...HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NW MTNS AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT IT TO PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THE LOW PWAT AIR WILL REACH LANCASTER CO
BY ARND 15Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE AM COMMUTE BASED ON NR TERM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IS FROM
SCHUYLKILL CO INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING...AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. ANY ACCUMS BTWN 09Z-15Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH BASED
ON MDL QPF.
DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. WILL CARRY
ONLY ARND 50 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO AND
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY LGT SNOW OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
SHOULD END BY 15Z AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. RAP TEMP TIME SERIES SUPPORT NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE DAY...AS THE ARCTIC
AIR FLOWS IN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS BTWN
20-30KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT...TEMPS FALLING BLW ZERO COMBINED WITH A BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WCHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. IF WINDS
GO CALM...THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER IN MANY
SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
FOR WCHILL READINGS BTWN 15-20 BLW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A FAST WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FOCUS BURSTS OF WAA LIFT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND MEAN QPF AXIS...GIVEN
THAT THE SPEED OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN MAKE TRACKING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES DIFFICULT. THE NAM/SREF MEAN ARE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS.
FRIDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS AVERAGING 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATE NORMALS. NORTHERN PA
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STRIPE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD THROUGH MA...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE GIVEN CURRENT SPREAD AND POSSIBLE N-S SHIFTS IN THE MODEL
FCST QPF AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS/EC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEPICTING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFYING/CONSOLIDATING AS IT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST
COAST SUN-TUE. A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW INITIALLY TRACKING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VLY LATE SUN SHOULD SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST.
COMBO OF BEST MSTR/LIFT APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWS
ALONG WITH MIXED PCPN...WITH LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE SRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA IS AT MOST RISK FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT IS EXITING
SOUTHEAST PA AS OF 12Z. RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS
WILL REMAIN LIKELY AT KMDT THRU ARND 13Z AND KLNS THRU ARND 14Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
DAY. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN LATE TONIGHT
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS OVR THE NW MTNS DUE TO DEVELOPING STRONG
WINDS WEST WINDS ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DWINDLING AREA OF POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS IN REGION OF
8-7H FGEN FORCING WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOW...ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
ARCTIC AIR MASS...HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NW MTNS AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT IT TO PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THE LOW PWAT AIR WILL REACH LANCASTER CO
BY ARND 15Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE AM COMMUTE BASED ON NR TERM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IS FROM
SCHUYLKILL CO INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING...AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. ANY ACCUMS BTWN 09Z-15Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH BASED
ON MDL QPF.
DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. WILL CARRY
ONLY ARND 50 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO AND
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY LGT SNOW OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
SHOULD END BY 15Z AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. RAP TEMP TIME SERIES SUPPORT NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE DAY...AS THE ARCTIC
AIR FLOWS IN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS BTWN
20-30KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT...TEMPS FALLING BLW ZERO COMBINED WITH A BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WCHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. IF WINDS
GO CALM...THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER IN MANY
SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
FOR WCHILL READINGS BTWN 15-20 BLW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A FAST WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FOCUS BURSTS OF WAA LIFT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND MEAN QPF AXIS...GIVEN
THAT THE SPEED OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN MAKE TRACKING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES DIFFICULT. THE NAM/SREF MEAN ARE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS.
FRIDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS AVERAGING 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATE NORMALS. NORTHERN PA
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STRIPE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD THROUGH MA...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE GIVEN CURRENT SPREAD AND POSSIBLE N-S SHIFTS IN THE MODEL
FCST QPF AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS/EC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEPICTING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFYING/CONSOLIDATING AS IT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST
COAST SUN-TUE. A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW INITIALLY TRACKING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VLY LATE SUN SHOULD SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST.
COMBO OF BEST MSTR/LIFT APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWS
ALONG WITH MIXED PCPN...WITH LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE SRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA IS AT MOST RISK FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VIS
REDUCTIONS BTWN 1-3SM AT KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
RAP/4KM NAM INDICATE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST PA
LATER THIS MORNING...CAUSING THE SNOW TO END AT KMDT AND KLNS BTWN
12Z-15Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
DAY. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DWINDLING AREA OF POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS IN REGION OF
8-7H FGEN FORCING WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOW...ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
ARCTIC AIR MASS...HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NW MTNS AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT IT TO PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THE LOW PWAT AIR WILL REACH LANCASTER CO
BY ARND 15Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE AM COMMUTE BASED ON NR TERM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IS FROM
SCHUYLKILL CO INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING...AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. ANY ACCUMS BTWN 09Z-15Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH BASED
ON MDL QPF.
DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. WILL CARRY
ONLY ARND 50 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO AND
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY LGT SNOW OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
SHOULD END BY 15Z AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. RAP TEMP TIME SERIES SUPPORT NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE DAY...AS THE ARCTIC
AIR FLOWS IN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS BTWN
20-30KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT...TEMPS FALLING BLW ZERO COMBINED WITH A BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WCHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. IF WINDS
GO CALM...THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER IN MANY
SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
FOR WCHILL READINGS BTWN 15-20 BLW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A FAST WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FOCUS BURSTS OF WAA LIFT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND MEAN QPF AXIS...GIVEN
THAT THE SPEED OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN MAKE TRACKING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES DIFFICULT. THE NAM/SREF MEAN ARE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS.
FRIDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS AVERAGING 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATE NORMALS. NORTHERN PA
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STRIPE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD THROUGH MA...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE GIVEN CURRENT SPREAD AND POSSIBLE N-S SHIFTS IN THE MODEL
FCST QPF AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS/EC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEPICTING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFYING/CONSOLIDATING AS IT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST
COAST SUN-TUE. A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW INITIALLY TRACKING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VLY LATE SUN SHOULD SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST.
COMBO OF BEST MSTR/LIFT APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWS
ALONG WITH MIXED PCPN...WITH LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE SRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA IS AT MOST RISK FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KJST TO KUNV AND KIPT AT 06Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THRU THE REST OF PA BY ARND 09Z. POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LGT
SNOW/LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS
ALREADY ENTERING NW PA AT 06Z AND SHOULD REACH KBFD ARND 08Z AND
KJST ARND 10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDS. ELSEWHERE...THE DRYING EFFECT
OF A NW WIND WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDS EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDS AT
KAOO AND KUNV BTWN 06Z-09Z AND JUST A CHC OF A BRIEF MVFR
REDUCTION AT KMDT/KLNS BTWN 09Z-12Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY.
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
136 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC SHOULD
BRING PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A RAIN-SNOW LINE ROUGHLY BETWEEN I-80 AND
THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A RATHER UNIFORM WIDE FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER ROUGHLY THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA AT 06Z. THE
SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND
BEHIND (REAR QUADRANT) OF UPPER JET CIRCULATION EXITING NEW
ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING
RETURNS OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE 05Z HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A FRACTURE DEVELOPING IN THE SNOW BAND OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA -- PERHAPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING -- WHILE HITTING
THE LAURELS AND ENDLESS MTNS/SRN POCONOS THE HARDEST WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH 12Z. A RELATIVE MIN IN SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY FROM HGR TO SEG. THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z...WHICH SHOULD BECOME THE
MAIN STORY HEADING THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN
12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR BARRELS INTO THE REGION. HELD ON TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
FOCUS FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS
BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC
VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN
THE LWR SUSQ...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
EVENT WINDOW APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT AND A
RATHER EXTENSIVE NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10-12F BELOW
NORMAL.
AFTERWARD...A STRENGTHENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NJ OR DELMARVA COAST.
SEVERAL...INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF JET ENERGY /WITH ERN
PACIFIC ORIGIN/ WILL RIDE ESE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND UPPER MISS
VALLEY AND INITIATE PULSES OF SWRLY WAA/UVVEL OVER THE BOUNDARY
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MDT
SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
OVERCAST SKIES BLANKETING AT LEAST THE NW HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA TO START THE WEEKEND...WILL SPREAD SE AND COVER ALL OF
THE COMMONWEALTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
12Z GFS/EC/AND CMC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
FINAL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING AS IT HEADS SE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST...GENERATING A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
/APPROX 1004 HPA/ ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS /AT THIS POINT IN TIME/ SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING TO
THE DELMARVA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
12Z BIAS CORRECTED GEFS IS JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THE THE SFC LOW
TRACK...WHILE THE 12Z NAEFS TAKES THE SFC LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND N CAROLINA.
GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS POINT /IMPACTING A MORE DEFINITIVE AND
SPECIFIC FORECAST FOR RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL PENN/ IS BE THE LARGE
AMT OF /SPREAD/ IN MSLP FROM NRN PENN INTO SRN ONTARIO...AND THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE STEADY...SIGNIFICANT STRIPE OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF THE QUASI- STNRY BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE WEIGHTED HIGHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENN WITH 60-70 POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS PROBABLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT "EVENT"
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS OF 12-HOURLY POPS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /LARGE MSLP
SPREAD/ IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FROM HERE NORTH.
TEMP FCST WILL OBVIOUSLY ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTH/MVMT OF THE HIGH ACROSS
SERN CANADA. FOR NOW...USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND TO ARRIVE AT TEMPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MILDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SFC LOW JUST TO
THE NW OF OUR AREA...AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SE TWD THE COMMONWEALTH.
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA /CLOSE TO THE QUASI-STNRY FRONT/ WILL
LKLY BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY COOL TO NEAR AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KJST TO KUNV AND KIPT AT 06Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THRU THE REST OF PA BY ARND 09Z. POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LGT
SNOW/LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS
ALREADY ENTERING NW PA AT 06Z AND SHOULD REACH KBFD ARND 08Z AND
KJST ARND 10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDS. ELSEWHERE...THE DRYING EFFECT
OF A NW WIND WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDS EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDS AT
KAOO AND KUNV BTWN 06Z-09Z AND JUST A CHC OF A BRIEF MVFR
REDUCTION AT KMDT/KLNS BTWN 09Z-12Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY.
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004-005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
958 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON - AND EVEN
AS WARM AS THE MID 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD - PLENTY OF SNOWMELT HAS
OCCURRED. WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTRODUCED NEAR SURFACE WILL BE A WILD CARD. THE
NAM/SREF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS THAN THE GFS. THE RAP IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO FOG IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FAVORABLE MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY
FOG MENTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 C WILL RESULT
IN UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. WHILE SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...THEY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING WE CAN ACHIEVE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY WHERE IT IS STILL FAIRLY DEEP. CERTAINLY
THINK THAT GOOD MIXING WILL BE ACHIEVED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE
HIGHS REACHED THE 50S AND MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE WEST HERE...MAKING
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S VERY POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE 40S ARE
REASONABLE WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD PUT A GOOD
DENT IN THE SNOWPACK. NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NEAREST STRATUS DECK IS WELL NORTH
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE EXPECTATION THAT FOG WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. BY AFTERNOON...SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WITH SOME MID CLOUDS BUILDING LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
DISTINCT IMPULSE COMES OUT OF THE ACTIVE WESTERN TROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADS ACROSS AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUBTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF DIV Q
FIELDS AS A CONSENSUS...SO HAVE SHIFTED THE POPS JUST A BIT TO
TIGHTEN UP THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT...AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MIDDLE CWA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF QPF EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL
GENERATED PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FIGHT A DECENT SUBCLOUD DRY
LAYER...PROBABLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. COVERAGE OF PRECIP ALSO
CHALLENGED BY THE DRY LAYER...SO KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. THE CRITICAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES...
NOT ONLY AIR BUT ALSO SURFACE...AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PERHAPS WANDERING AROUND
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MEANS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF AIR TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE A SHADE
BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS EAST/NORTH...BUT LIKELY THAT MORE OF THE
PRECIP WILL END UP RAIN INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN. DOES NOT TAKE A
GREAT DEAL OF ICE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...AND EVEN IF AIR TEMPS REMAIN
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THE ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A SHADE COOLER IN PROTECTED LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS...AND
COULD FIND OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT MORE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ON SUNDAY...SYSTEM WASTES LITTLE TIME RIPPLING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA...AND WILL DRIVE THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. STRATUS FIELD WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOUTHWARD BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS WELL...AND COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL SYSTEM
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. WHILE FAR FROM A STRONG COLD PUSH BY ANY MEANS...IT
WILL ACT TO SHUNT ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING THREAT OUT OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ON EDGE OF
CLOUD FIELD TOWARD THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. THERE
COULD BE A BIT MORE CHANCE FOR CLEARING NEAR RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MONDAY...BUT STRONG LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT AND EVER PRESENT INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD ON TO
MOST CLOUDS RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WAVE MAKES A PUSH TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VERY NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT AS TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THE WARM ADVECTIVE WING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT MAINLY OVER
AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I90 ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN MUCH TOO WARM TO EXPECT MORE THAN LIQUID...AND WILL
AGAIN BE DANCING A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN LINE ON TEMPERATURES...BUT
GENERALLY MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT THAN THE SATURDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM WITH ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR IN PLACE EAST OF THE
JAMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DAY PART OF THE AREA AT LEAST PEEKS INTO
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AHEAD OF MAIN COLD PUSH LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MIXING WOULD BRING SOME NEAR
60 DEGREE READINGS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WORK UP TOWARD THESE READINGS ONCE ASSURED OF THE DEMISE
OF THE SNOW COVER.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AND CERTAINLY WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR
RUSHING IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. COLD TEMPS
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION
BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS QUICKENED EVEN MORE BY LOSS OF MOST SNOW COVER
IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT SNOW MELT...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FOG OR DENSE FOG ISSUES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS. ANY FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
556 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON - AND EVEN
AS WARM AS THE MID 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD - PLENTY OF SNOWMELT HAS
OCCURRED. WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTRODUCED NEAR SURFACE WILL BE A WILD CARD. THE
NAM/SREF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS THAN THE GFS. THE RAP IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO FOG IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FAVORABLE MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY
FOG MENTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 C WILL RESULT
IN UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. WHILE SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...THEY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING WE CAN ACHIEVE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY WHERE IT IS STILL FAIRLY DEEP. CERTAINLY
THINK THAT GOOD MIXING WILL BE ACHIEVED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE
HIGHS REACHED THE 50S AND MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE WEST HERE...MAKING
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S VERY POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE 40S ARE
REASONABLE WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD PUT A GOOD
DENT IN THE SNOWPACK. NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NEAREST STRATUS DECK IS WELL NORTH
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE EXPECTATION THAT FOG WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. BY AFTERNOON...SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH WITH SOME MID CLOUDS BUILDING LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
DISTINCT IMPULSE COMES OUT OF THE ACTIVE WESTERN TROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADS ACROSS AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUBTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF DIV Q
FIELDS AS A CONSENSUS...SO HAVE SHIFTED THE POPS JUST A BIT TO
TIGHTEN UP THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT...AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MIDDLE CWA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF QPF EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL
GENERATED PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FIGHT A DECENT SUBCLOUD DRY
LAYER...PROBABLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. COVERAGE OF PRECIP ALSO
CHALLENGED BY THE DRY LAYER...SO KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY AT THIS
POINT. THE CRITICAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES...
NOT ONLY AIR BUT ALSO SURFACE...AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PERHAPS WANDERING AROUND
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MEANS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF AIR TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE A SHADE
BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS EAST/NORTH...BUT LIKELY THAT MORE OF THE
PRECIP WILL END UP RAIN INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN. DOES NOT TAKE A
GREAT DEAL OF ICE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...AND EVEN IF AIR TEMPS REMAIN
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THE ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A SHADE COOLER IN PROTECTED LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS...AND
COULD FIND OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT MORE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ON SUNDAY...SYSTEM WASTES LITTLE TIME RIPPLING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA...AND WILL DRIVE THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. STRATUS FIELD WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOUTHWARD BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS WELL...AND COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL SYSTEM
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO. WHILE FAR FROM A STRONG COLD PUSH BY ANY MEANS...IT
WILL ACT TO SHUNT ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING THREAT OUT OF THE
AREA...MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ON EDGE OF
CLOUD FIELD TOWARD THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. THERE
COULD BE A BIT MORE CHANCE FOR CLEARING NEAR RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MONDAY...BUT STRONG LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT AND EVER PRESENT INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD ON TO
MOST CLOUDS RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WAVE MAKES A PUSH TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT VERY NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT AS TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THE WARM ADVECTIVE WING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT MAINLY OVER
AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I90 ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT AGAIN MUCH TOO WARM TO EXPECT MORE THAN LIQUID...AND WILL
AGAIN BE DANCING A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN LINE ON TEMPERATURES...BUT
GENERALLY MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT THAN THE SATURDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM WITH ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR IN PLACE EAST OF THE
JAMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DAY PART OF THE AREA AT LEAST PEEKS INTO
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AHEAD OF MAIN COLD PUSH LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MIXING WOULD BRING SOME NEAR
60 DEGREE READINGS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WORK UP TOWARD THESE READINGS ONCE ASSURED OF THE DEMISE
OF THE SNOW COVER.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AND CERTAINLY WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR
RUSHING IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. COLD TEMPS
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION
BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS QUICKENED EVEN MORE BY LOSS OF MOST SNOW COVER
IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW MELT. THE NAM/SREF
REMAINS THE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS...HRRR AND RAP
INDICATES FOG IS LESS LIKELY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT ANY FOG
MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELING
TRENDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
306 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND GENERALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER AND
THROUGH THE RIDGE. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...COOLEST
GENERALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
ANY SNOW COVERED AREAS ON THE PLAINS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...THOUGH STARTING TO PICK UP OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE THIS WEEK AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS...INCLUDING
RAPID CITY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE RAP AIRPORT
RECORD HIGH IS 62...WHILE DOWNTOWN RAP IS 66. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY OVER NORTHEAST WY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW/LOW TROUGH PUSHES
ONSHORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR -SHRASN TUESDAY. GUIDANCE THEN
DIVERGES WITH DISPOSITION OF ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...GFS COLDEST...ECMWF WARMEST. HAVE SPLIT FORECAST DOWN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE QUESTION AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING. GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ALREADY INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
AS OF 21Z...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR OUT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD HANG IN PAST MIDNIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. EVEN
IF THERE IS A TEMPORARY CLEARING...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY THEN
REFORM BEFORE SUNRISE...SO HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOME FOG
MAY ALSO FORM AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. FOR
NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION HAS NEARLY SHUT OFF
AND NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE DEW POINTS AND THE CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INDICATED LOWS NEAR OR ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. THE OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM IF AREAS TOTALLY CLEAR
OUT.
AFTER TOMORROW MORNING...WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND START THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT SOME LOWER
80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE BOWIE-BRECKENRIDGE AREAS AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE ATHENS-TEMPLE AREA AROUND
SUNSET. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY U.S. AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIFFERENTLY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 254 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/
18Z NAM NOW FALLING IN LINE WITH THE RAP AND SHOWS MOISTURE SCATTERING
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS THEN RE-FORM BEFORE SUNRISE. DO
NOT HAVE STRONG CONCERNS ABOUT FZDZ FRIDAY MORNING BECAUSE THIS
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE MUCH THINNER THAN THIS MORNING.
WILL ADD A BKN015 LAYER FOR THE SUNRISE HOURS. AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE...THIS LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. 84
/PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/ 1137 AM.
NORTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK
TO LIGHT SOUTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA WE EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE 020 THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE THIS EVENING.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE IS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
GROUND FOG. WE DID NOT ADD ANY TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASES. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 30 63 44 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 31 63 42 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 31 59 40 72 51 / 5 5 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 29 63 42 76 50 / 5 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 29 60 42 75 51 / 5 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 31 62 44 76 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 31 60 43 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 32 61 43 75 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 36 62 41 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 29 68 42 80 49 / 5 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z NAM NOW FALLING IN LINE WITH THE RAP AND SHOWS MOISTURE SCATTERING
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS THEN RE-FORM BEFORE SUNRISE. DO
NOT HAVE STRONG CONCERNS ABOUT FZDZ FRIDAY MORNING BECAUSE THIS
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE MUCH THINNER THAN THIS MORNING.
WILL ADD A BKN015 LAYER FOR THE SUNRISE HOURS. AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE...THIS LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. 84
/PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/ 1137 AM.
NORTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK
TO LIGHT SOUTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA WE EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE 020 THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE THIS EVENING.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE IS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
GROUND FOG. WE DID NOT ADD ANY TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASES. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
WITH THE EXPECTED OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE LOWERED TODAY/S HIGHS BY
A CATEGORY OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED
THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 11 AM FOR THE
METROPLEX EAST THROUGH TERRELL AND SOUTH TO NEAR ATHENS...CORSICANA
AND MERIDIAN.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015/
...COLD TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FALLING THROUGH THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S AROUND
GRAHAM AND BOWIE. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES...WITH
DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED IN SOME AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE DFW METROPLEX SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL DRYING IS
BRINGING AN END TO THE DRIZZLE JUST BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET DOWN
TO FREEZING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING FORT WORTH...EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND SHORT
DURATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SUGGEST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH. EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS. SUNNY
SKIES AND A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND...WITH READINGS NEAR 70 POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ZONES. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SOME READINGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING A MINOR COOLDOWN STARTING MONDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATES THAT A
HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN...ALSO KNOWN AS A REX BLOCK...WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN CHANCES DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING CUTOFF LOW. THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW MOVES...WITH A
TRACK FROM COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND STALL OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS POSITION WOULD LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO OUR PART OF TEXAS LATER NEXT
WEEK...AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD FAVOR LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 09/GP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 30 63 44 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 31 63 42 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 31 59 40 72 51 / 5 5 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 29 63 42 76 50 / 5 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 29 60 42 75 51 / 5 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 31 62 44 76 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 31 60 43 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 33 61 43 75 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 36 62 41 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 68 42 80 49 / 5 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1125 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHERWISE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE EARLIER
ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
ABOUT THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT CURRENT IS TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY.
AS OF 645 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IN
THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY ROUGHLY TWO TO THREE HOURS BASED UPON THE
LATEST 18Z/1PM GFS/NAM/WRF ARW GUIDANCE AND 22Z/5PM HRRR OUTPUT.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. A FEW OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY GUST
CRITERIA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THE SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ONLY.
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A 1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. THE RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN
TO OUR EAST.
A SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF
MOSTLY POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW THAT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE FAR WEST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW UPON HEADING EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE EAST
DRY OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW MAY PUSH EAST TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE QUICKLY FADING TOWARD DAWN AS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE KICKS IN.
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TWO INCHES WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW AND THERMAL PROFILES...THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH SNOW TO
WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY CONSIDERING THE LOW AMOUNTS AND LIMITED
AREA AFFECTED. IN GENERAL...CLOUD COVER INCREASES TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHT
85H TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH THE
NORTH CAROLINA RIDGES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD MORNING
GIVEN A RATHER LOW INVERSION BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER JET
ALOFT. WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH TO AROUND 40 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES AS COORDINATED WITH GSP AND LWX.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO OUR REGION. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. USED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE STRONG CAA TO ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO FALL
IN WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
5H TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE WE STAY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS START TO RISE INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC SHIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD
TOWARD THE NRN VA AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MODELS HOLDING PRECIP
JUST NORTH OF US DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS TO
TEENS ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF SE WV.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOW
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 20S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND BLF.
MAY START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS ARRIVING SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WITH FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL TEMPS WILL BE MILDER AS
THICKNESSES RISE...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MORE CLOUD ARRIVE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RIDGE/TROF
CONFIGURATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROF STARTS OFF
BROAD ON SUNDAY...THEN SHARPENS INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF MONDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
BROAD WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY SUGGESTS A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF OUR REGION...
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND...THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SPAWNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME...AND DRAGGING THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. ATTM IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIRMASS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION THAT ARRIVES WITH THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS TRACK THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY...PASSING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
CWA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST TO ENCOMPASS AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS PAINTS A VERY WET PICTURE FOR
MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS MODEL HAS
TRENDED WETTER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z/1AM.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
09Z/4AM AND 14Z/9AM. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE WVA TERMINALS INTO FAR WESTERN
VA...WEST OF ROANOKE. DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD PREVENT THE LOWER
CIGS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING
ABOVE 3KFT AND SUPPORTING VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR FROM THE
ROANOKE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO VA/NC TO INCLUDE KROA/KLYH/KDAN.
A WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY.
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
948 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RISING AS THE WINDS HAVE YET TO KICK IN. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE
TEMPERATURES AND UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW
FLURRIES NEAR THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER.
AS SNOW ENDS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TONIGHT. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 IN THESE AREAS...SO THERE WILL BE
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH IN THESE
AREAS SO TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IMPACTED...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS THIS
EVENING AS BLOWING SNOW HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW...BRINGING AN END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW.
WARMING TREND BEGINS TOMORROW BUT SNOW WILL INHIBIT WARMING OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST SNOW WILL MELT BY THE END OF THE
DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HEAVIER BAND WHICH FELL FROM AROUND
WHEATLAND TO TORRINGTON TO ALLIANCE. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE
IMPACTED DUE TO SNOW ON THE GROUND FRIDAY AS WELL WITHIN THE
HEAVIER BAND. NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. MODELS DISAGREE IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT BECOMING FAIRLY
CONFIDENT STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA MAY REACH 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE STILL EXPECTED. MODELS
INDICATE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DUE TO DAYTIME CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO LOSE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING FROPA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS 12 TO
18 HOURS LATER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW FORMING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE KEY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY NEXT THURSDAY. FOR
NOW...KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TRENDED MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
LATEST HRRR HAS GOTTEN RID OF THE LOW CEILINGS IN AND AROUND KCYS.
LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD SOON BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPING...SO DO HAVE TO GO WITH WHAT THE HRRR IS SHOWING. ONE
LAST BAND OF SNOW OUT BY KSNY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. VFR AND WINDY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS
THURSDAY.|
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...
MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND
FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1036 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2015
.Synopsis...
Two waves of significant precipitation, heavy at times, will move
through the area into early next week. The first tonight into
Saturday and the second Sunday into Monday. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected especially through tonight. Drier
conditions are expected for the middle to end of next week.
&&
.Discussion...
The main band of rain is shifting south this evening and activity
is transitioning to a more showery nature. Widespread rainfall
amounts over 1.00 inches for the valley have fallen in the past 24
hours with mountain amounts over 2.00 inches. Snow levels have
been slow to rise aided by the heavy precip keeping lapse rate
steep. Have extended winter weather advisory through 4 am above
6500 feet. Expect snow to begin mixing with rain and snow levels
to rise to above 7000 feet by morning. It appears locations above
6500 along interstate 80 have already picked up 10 or more inches
of very wet snow and up to 6 more inches is possible. HRRR shows
showers diminishing rapidly over the valleys after 6 am...although
activity continues over the mountains.
.Previous Discussion...
Storm underway across most of the area early this afternoon as
leading shortwave moves onshore. Showers continue to spread SE
covering most of the valley and into the Sierra. A few lightning
strikes occurred near Sac area this morning as a few convective
cells popped up ahead of main area of rain in area of meager
instability. Moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across the
area into tonight with another 1 to 2 inches in central Valley and
upwards of 2 to 4 in northern valley and higher elevations. Winds
picked up overnight across northern portions of the valley (30-45
mph) and at higher elevations (in excess of 60-70 mph) with
reports of downed trees and power outages, especially in Shasta
and Plumas counties. Gusts in these areas will continue thru
tonight with wind advisory still in effect. So far gusts have
remained below 30 mph across central and southern valley as it
seems winds just above surface having trouble mixing down.
Regardless, expect a few gusts still to 40-50 mph this afternoon
and evening as wave rotates thru. Next few shortwaves will rotate
thru in flow late tonight into Saturday night which should
continue the threat of showers across most areas. Much like this
morning, a few thunderstorms not out of the question across
southern portions of the valley during the day Saturday with
marginal instability and lapse rates. But precip rates/amts should
be lighter than those of today. Snow now falling down to around
5500-6000 feet in the Sierra but wet bulb temperatures expected to
rise later this evening and tonight with WAA so still expecting
minimal travel impacts. Warm subtropical nature of system will
keep snow levels above 7000 feet tonight with significant
accumulations remaining above 8000 feet thru the weekend.
Last in series of wave and associated trough will move thru the
area later Sunday into Monday. Models in decent agreement with
this last system but still disagree a bit in strength. Precip amts
have come up a bit over previous forecasts and some locations may
see similar rainfall to what`s going on currently. After all is
said and done, storm totals from both systems will range from
around 2 to 5 inches in the valley and 5 to 12 inches across
higher elevations. A bit of instability will be present again
during the day, on Sunday and especially on Monday after front
passes thru. Some breaks in clouds Monday afternoon could lend to
the development of thunderstorms, mainly in the valley. Colder air
will move in with this second system. This will cause lowering
snow levels a bit but will be after majority of precip has tapered
off, thus limiting impacts. Precip will taper off Monday night
with a return to high pressure.
CEO
&&
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Storm #2 is progged to drop SEwd from the Pac NW into the Great
Basin on Tue...and then retrograde across the Desert SW and
into the vicinity of Baja or across the Baja Peninsula late
Wed-Fri. This will lead to the re-amplification of the ridge along
the W Coast and a return to dry wx. By the end of the week...a Rex
Block pattern may redevelop along the W Coast...with the Rex
portion of the block in the vicinity of Baja (exact location depending
on model). Breezy Nly winds still expected on Tue and possibly
into Wed as the upper low drops Swd over the Great Basin. Lighter
winds expected later in the EFP. Max temps will be warming into
the 60s possibly into the low 70s if the katabatic wind develops
resulting in adiabatic warming. JHM
&&
.Aviation...
A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys as frontal band moves inland
into Norcal with light to moderate rain. Snow occurring over the
mountains around 6500 ft and above. Winds beginning to strengthen
in the Sacramento Metro region as we forecast sustained winds
tonight of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts. Mtn winds locally
gusting to 60+ kts over Siernev Peaks or areas favored by terrain
forcing. NorCal winds will decrease on Saturday. JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
flood watch until 4 am pst saturday burney basin / eastern
shasta county...central sacramento valley...clear lake/southern
lake county...mountains southwestern shasta county to northern
lake county...northeast foothills/sacramento valley...northern
sacramento valley...shasta lake area / northern shasta county...
western plumas county/lassen park.
wind advisory until 7 am pst saturday burney basin / eastern
shasta county...carquinez strait and delta...central sacramento
valley...clear lake/southern lake county...motherlode...
mountains southwestern shasta county to northern lake county...
northeast foothills/sacramento valley...northern sacramento
valley...northern san joaquin valley...shasta lake area /
northern shasta county...southern sacramento valley...west slope
northern sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.
winter weather advisory until 4 am pst saturday above 6500 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada.
flash flood watch through sunday afternoon motherlode...west
slope northern sierra nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
213 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING
THE I-90 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY A STORM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...INTENSIFY AND MOVE
EAST TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A
WINTRY MIX IN FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THIS SYSTEMS WILL DEPART
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. THE KTYX RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
OCCASIONAL FLARE UPS IN REFLECTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF OLD FORGE...BUT THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY FOR AREAS AROUND STILLWATER RESERVOIR.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW FLURRIES
AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WEAK ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FCA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE SO FAR...WITH READINGS WARMEST IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE THE THICKEST/LOWEST. MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR
LOW TEMPS...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR RISING FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TEMPS ARE STILL DROPPING...BUT
WILL SOON SEE THEIR MINS AS CLOUDS MOVING IN CAUSE TEMPS TO STOP
THEIR FREE FALL. LOWS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS...AND WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE TEENS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.
TODAY...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL START
ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN NY...POSSIBLY
JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY THE
AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN FROM
JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY
BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY. OUR FCST
REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN
DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER
TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL
FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES
AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE
NAM WAS LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF
A WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO REST OF FCA FOR THE SAME
PERIOD...
THE THREAT OF ONGOING SNOW INCREASES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE CONSIDERABLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SUF AGREEMENT WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRIFTING SLOWLY S AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE MIDWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS A 500HPA
SHORT WV EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EAST...AND
CENTER JUMPS TO THE VCNTY OF N CHESAPEAKE BAY...AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE..DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH...THIS SCENARIO IS A PROLONGED OVERRUNNING
EVENT...WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC FORCING AS THE SHORT WV DEEPENS
THE SFC LOW AND INCR UVM SUN NT/MON. THE NAM TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER
N...WITH BULK OF PCPN I90 AND NORTH...WHICH NCEP AS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER EXHIBITING KNOWN BIASES. HENCE THE NAM WAS NOT
CONSIDERED.
18UTC AND 00UTC GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES CLUSTERED ARND QPF OF 1.00 IN
LIQ EQ WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING SUN INTO MON. THE 00UTC
OPERATIONAL RUN IS IN THE SAME RANGE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONCERNS...THIS QPF IS OVER 3 OR EVEN MORE
PERIODS. THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST SOME ZR MIX SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE MIXED CRITERIA IS
DEBATABLE.
WPC WINTER WX DESK HAS MUCH OF AREA OVER 12-15 INCHES OVER DAYS
2-3 IN MUCH OF THE FCA EXCEPT THE FAR NW AND SE CORNERS. SO
REACHING THE 9 OR MORE IN 24 OR MORE HOURS CRITERIA IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND JUSTIFIES A WATCH WITH ITS 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL.
AT THIS POINT WILL EXPAND WATCH TO ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT IT MAY
BE SOME TIME BFE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
WARNING...AND IT COULD EASILY GO TO AN ADVISORY SVRL AREAS
INSTEAD OF THE WARNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION.
MON NT N WIND GRADIENT WILL INCR WITH INCRG BLOWING AND DRIFTING
POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TUE MRNG AS SFC LOW MVS
OUT TO SEA...AND IN FAST 500 HPA FLOW...SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER AREA
TUES AFTN...AND RETREATS N TUE NT. LATE TUES NEXT 500 HPA SHORT
WV AND ITS ATTENDANT CLIPPER MV INTO THE GRTLKS W/INCG CLOUDS.
TEMPS WILL BE +/- 5 DEG FM NORMALS MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR (AND
WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CLOUDS ARE MORE SCT AT
KPOU. THERE A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES AROUND...BUT THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON VSBYS OR CIGS. ANY FLURRIES SHOULD END
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY AFTN
FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF. IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AT KPOU...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THERE TOWARDS
EVENING. WITHIN LIGHT SNOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY EVENING FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EVENING AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE CLIPPER
WILL STALL OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG IT FOCUSING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MAY BRING A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. THE KTYX RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
OCCASIONAL FLARE UPS IN REFLECTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF OLD FORGE...BUT THE 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY FOR AREAS AROUND STILLWATER RESERVOIR.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW FLURRIES
AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WEAK ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE SO FAR...WITH READINGS WARMEST IN NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE THE THICKEST/LOWEST. MANY AREAS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THEIR LOW TEMPS...WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TEMPS ARE STILL
DROPPING...BUT WILL SOON SEE THEIR MINS AS CLOUDS MOVING IN CAUSE
TEMPS TO STOP THEIR FREE FALL. LOWS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...AND WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE TEENS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL
START ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN
NY...POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR
INTO CENTRL NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY
THE AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN
FROM JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.
OUR FCST REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL
FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES
AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE NAM WAS
LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF A
WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
OUR CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST FOR 9 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POTENTIALLY IS FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT MORE LOCATIONS MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO ADDING THESE LOCATIONS /CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST/ TO WATCH JUST YET. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
5TH TO 7TH PERIOD WATCH...AND THEY CAN BE RISKY. ANOTHER PERUSAL
OF 12-HRS OF ADDITIONAL NWP GUIDANCE WAS DEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO EXPAND THE WATCH.
NOW...FOR STARTERS...THE LATEST NAM AND SREFS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS...AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF. THE
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GFS/ECMWF. WE FOLLOWED THE NERFC
AND WPC QPF FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN THE FCST.
OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SOME OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT COULD EVEN HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET SINCE THE CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY /BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/...SO PTYPE LOOKS TO BE AN
ISSUE. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH AND A DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FCST
AREA...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY NIGHTFALL...AND 1-4" TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE
HERE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING COUPLED WITH
THE VORTICTY ADVECTION. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/QG OMEGA WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE FGEN PROFILES INDICATE SOME BANDS OF
SNOW MAY FORM...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES ACROSS SE PA AND THE
DELMARVA REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE FORMS AND
WERE IT TRACKS FROM THERE. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS FAVOR
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFAL FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED! MORE
DISCUSSION ON THIS STORM IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS STILL WILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY...LOWERING TO LIKELY POPS EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IN ALL AREAS. THE NAM
WAS PRODUCING SOME MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IT SEEMED TO
BE AN OUTLIER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 5 ABOVE TO THE TEENS.
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO
10 ABOVE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
(AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CLOUDS ARE MORE SCT AT
KPOU. THERE A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES AROUND...BUT THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON VSBYS OR CIGS. ANY FLURRIES SHOULD END
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY AFTN
FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF. IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
AT KPOU...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THERE TOWARDS
EVENING. WITHIN LIGHT SNOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY EVENING FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EVENING AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER
MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
110 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HAS KEPT THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD, THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015/
UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015/
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THEN SOME WET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY RELAX OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO SWING FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
FROM A BREEZY CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 10 MPH BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO LATE THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ON
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY END OF THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 7 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN SCA WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT FOR WINDS AND REMAIN UP FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SCEC CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE
BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 61 77 62 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 64 77 65 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 74 63 78 64 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 56 78 61 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR VSBYS AND STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 9Z.
* ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 4KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS FLOATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE ORD/MDW SITES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITH WARMER AIR ARRIVING TODAY...THE
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND RELEASE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
OR IFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LACK OF
MIXING...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDS INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY...ANY PRECIP OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIQUID AND NOT
POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AIRFIELDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
Warm front was shifting slowly north of the TAF sites late this
evening with all our TAF sites now reporting south winds at
around 10 kts. Still a concern for some MVFR vsbys in fog later
tonight at PIA and BMI, but it appears the more widespread fog
threat will be to our north, at least for tonight. Any MVFR
vsbys in fog at PIA and BMI should dissipate by 16z Saturday
as southerly winds increase during the late morning and
afternoon hours with mostly VFR conditions expected. Once we
get into tomorrow evening, we will have to watch for the
development of fog and stratus. However, the latest data
suggests winds will hold up enough, at least thru 06z, to
prevent any widespread development until the early morning
hours of Sunday across our northern TAF sites.
In addition to the fog threat late tomorrow night, forecast
soundings indicate the potential for LLWS after 03z Saturday
evening with winds just off the surface out of the southwest at
40 kts. For now, will hold off including in this set of TAFs.
Surface winds tonight will be southerly at 8 to 13 kts and then
increase from the south at 12 to 17 kts by Saturday afternoon with
a few gusts around 20 kts at time. Look for southerly winds to
continue Saturday evening at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
213 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...616 PM CST
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE TANKED QUICKLY
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN SPITE OF
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES
AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH 20S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION SETTING UP...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT THE SURFACE
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THERE WILL NOT BE A HUGE
PUSH OF WARMTH AND BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED ON THE 00 UTC DVN
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE THAN
EXPECTED...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME
AREAS. TRENDS FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR VSBYS AND STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 9Z.
* ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 4KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS FLOATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE ORD/MDW SITES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITH WARMER AIR ARRIVING TODAY...THE
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND RELEASE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
OR IFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LACK OF
MIXING...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDS INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY...ANY PRECIP OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIQUID AND NOT
POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AIRFIELDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1157 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
616 PM CST
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE TANKED QUICKLY
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IN SPITE OF
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES
AND EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
THROUGH THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH 20S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION SETTING UP...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT THE SURFACE
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE...THERE WILL NOT BE A HUGE
PUSH OF WARMTH AND BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED ON THE 00 UTC DVN
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE THAN
EXPECTED...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME
AREAS. TRENDS FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 PM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION
OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT
GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
(NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE.
MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE
NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT
BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S
SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING
FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS
AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A
MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND
NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING
AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME
WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD
CLIMB.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE
INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE
DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN.
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX
AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE
COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR VSBYS AND STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 9Z.
* ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 4KT AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED CLOUDS FLOATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE ORD/MDW SITES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WITH WARMER AIR ARRIVING TODAY...THE
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO MELT AND RELEASE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
OR IFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LACK OF
MIXING...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDS INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY...ANY PRECIP OR DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIQUID AND NOT
POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AIRFIELDS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.
* MEDIUM IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH 21Z.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...IFR CIGS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TOO. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK (20-30KT). GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
217 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Record high temperatures are still on track later today as the
pattern aloft continues to support warm downslope flow off the
eastern Rockies. A weak trough will track across the plains today,
which will help push that warm air over eastern KS. Soundings
indicate that daytime mixing will reach about 925 mb, with the
exception of the snow covered areas along the NE state line. An
analysis of the 925 mb temperatures show that the thermal axis is
forecast to focus somewhere over I-70 and the NE state line.
Cooler temperatures will again reside across southeastern KS
similar to yesterday where highs were over estimated. The RAP is
the most aggressive with daytime mixing reaching a height of 900
mb, but this is common with this model making it sort of the upper
bound. Mixing those temperatures down to the surface would mean
highs in the mid to upper 70s, so it seems reasonable that this
will be unlikely. Therefore have went with highs in the low to mid
70s along I-70, near 60 over the snow covered areas, and upper 60s
in southeast KS. The record for Topeka is 71 set in 2009 and
Concordia is 69 set in 1990, while the forecast for both is 72.
Winds will not be as high as yesterday with the exception of
southeast KS with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Warm and dry conditions
again will cause high to very high fire danger for the southwest
half of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Next upper shortwave trof and associated front pass over the
eastern part of the state early Sunday morning, bringing breezy
northwest winds along with it. Temperatures behind this wave are
rather mild and still anticipate will mix into the 50s northeast
to lower/middle 60s south and west. The breezy conditions combined
with relatively warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s will
bring very high fire danger back into the area mainly west and
south of Manhattan on Sunday afternoon.
The surface high moves south and to our east into Sunday night and
Monday, keeping lows mixed into the 30s and bring easterly winds
and somewhat cooler highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday.
Zonal flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface bring highs
back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, before the next
cold front comes southward across the Central Plains early
Wednesday. After lows in the 30s, if the front comes in early
won`t expect much of a warm up but into the 40s and temperatures
may then fall again through the day as the cooler air comes south.
Have backed off again on precipitation chances as little moisture
has a chance to reestablish itself before the colder dry air mass
returns. Lows cool back into the teens and 30s overnight. Thursday
would remain colder in the 30s as cold high continues to be pushed
southward by northerly flow aloft. May get some recovery back into
the 40s into Friday if colder air can be moved eastward and
thermal axis ahead of the next front gets a chance to mix down
some warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period, although there
is still a very small chance for shallow fog development at TOP.
Expect LLWS to persist through 09Z at MHK and 10-11Z at FOE/TOP
with southwest winds to 40 kts below 1000 feet AGL.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.MARINE UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
FOR THE LAKE HURON OPEN WATERS FROM PRESQUE ISLE TO ALABASTER.
FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS
WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME WITH NO HEADLINES FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD AS QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...THERMAL PROFILE...PTYPE...AND TIMING DUE TO PERSISTENT
DRY LAYER. OVERALL MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO POINT TO WARMER SOLUTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL MI TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE WARM LAYER DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING WITH 800MB TEMPS APPROACHING 8C. IN ADDITION THE DRY LAYER
EXTENDING FROM 850-500MB WILL ENCOURAGE PTYPES TO BE A COMBINATION
OF RA/DZ/FZDZ WITH A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE CWA...AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS LOCATED BELOW THE DRY LAYER.
QUESTION REMAINS JUST HOW MUCH OF THE MODEL BL MOISTURE IS REAL AND
HOW MUCH IS AN ARTIFACT OF HAVING WAA OVER A HEALTHY SNOWPACK?
CURRENT OBS SPORTING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 10-15F SUGGEST
THEY ARE NOT HANDLING IT WELL AT ALL AS THIS TIME YESTERDAY THEY
WERE SUPPORTING SUB 1000FT CIGS. THEN AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS OVER IL/IA
ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE WITH BR. THOUGH MODELS SHOW WEAK FGEN
AROUND 850MB OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE COLD FRONT
STRENGTHENS THE FGEN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN HIGHER IN
COLUMN. SO WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND LIGHT
FZDZ/SN MAINLY NORTH OF I69. DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL
PREVENT PRECIP EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BROADER
AREA OF LIFT/PRESSURE FALLS WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT WITH MAINLY
A THREE TIERED PTYPE FORECAST...RA/DZ FROM THE OH BORDER UP THROUGH
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SN/FZDZ NORTH OF
THE I69 CORRIDOR AS COOLER TEMPS COULD REMAIN LOCKED AT THE SFC
LONGER. A DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL BEGIN
TO PULL THE FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN SPREAD
FROZEN PTYPES SOUTHWARD. OVERALL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH QPF OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE FOCUS ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SQUARELY ON THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME BETTER IN LINE WITH
THE PROGRESSION AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH ALL MODELS FAIRLY
ON TRACK TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBTLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELD. THE NAM IS STILL THE
FARTHEST NORTH OF ALL OF THE MODELS...TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER WITH COLD AIR DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS
AND ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE NAM TRACK...BUT PULLS IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WHICH YIELDS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBTLE YET SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS
DUE TO THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE ONLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES APART BUT YIELD THESE VASTLY DIFFERENT
SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SEEMS A BIT FAR NORTH
DUE TO THE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER THE
SNOWFALL YIELDED BY THE GFS SEEMS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH QPF FIELD OF NEARLY ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH IS AN ORDER
OF MAGNITUDE HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL STILL
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET AS QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IS THE
AMOUNT GIVEN BY THE ECMWF MODEL.
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON MONDAY...THE WEATHER
WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE RESPITE FROM COLDER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH
DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE REGION OF SNOW NOW RACING INTO THE WESTERN UP IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY PASS NORTH OF MBS THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE HOWEVER BEEN SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHICH MAY IMPACT MBS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RUC AND
SUPPORTED BY SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR DTW...THE PROPENSITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO LEAD TO A DIFFICULT CEILING
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z KDVN SOUNDING DID SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM FROM DETROIT
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL OFFER A GREATER CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR LHZ362-363.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD AS QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH FRONTAL
POSITION...THERMAL PROFILE...PTYPE...AND TIMING DUE TO PERSISTENT
DRY LAYER. OVERALL MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO POINT TO WARMER SOLUTION
WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL MI TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE WARM LAYER DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING WITH 800MB TEMPS APPROACHING 8C. IN ADDITION THE DRY LAYER
EXTENDING FROM 850-500MB WILL ENCOURAGE PTYPES TO BE A COMBINATION
OF RA/DZ/FZDZ WITH A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE CWA...AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS LOCATED BELOW THE DRY LAYER.
QUESTION REMAINS JUST HOW MUCH OF THE MODEL BL MOISTURE IS REAL AND
HOW MUCH IS AN ARTIFACT OF HAVING WAA OVER A HEALTHY SNOWPACK?
CURRENT OBS SPORTING A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 10-15F SUGGEST
THEY ARE NOT HANDLING IT WELL AT ALL AS THIS TIME YESTERDAY THEY
WERE SUPPORTING SUB 1000FT CIGS. THEN AGAIN UPSTREAM OBS OVER IL/IA
ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE WITH BR. THOUGH MODELS SHOW WEAK FGEN
AROUND 850MB OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE COLD FRONT
STRENGTHENS THE FGEN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN HIGHER IN
COLUMN. SO WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND LIGHT
FZDZ/SN MAINLY NORTH OF I69. DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL
PREVENT PRECIP EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BROADER
AREA OF LIFT/PRESSURE FALLS WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT WITH MAINLY
A THREE TIERED PTYPE FORECAST...RA/DZ FROM THE OH BORDER UP THROUGH
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SN/FZDZ NORTH OF
THE I69 CORRIDOR AS COOLER TEMPS COULD REMAIN LOCKED AT THE SFC
LONGER. A DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MI WILL BEGIN
TO PULL THE FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN SPREAD
FROZEN PTYPES SOUTHWARD. OVERALL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH QPF OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE FOCUS ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SQUARELY ON THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME BETTER IN LINE WITH
THE PROGRESSION AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH ALL MODELS FAIRLY
ON TRACK TO TAKE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBTLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELD. THE NAM IS STILL THE
FARTHEST NORTH OF ALL OF THE MODELS...TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER WITH COLD AIR DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS
AND ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE NAM TRACK...BUT PULLS IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WHICH YIELDS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBTLE YET SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS
DUE TO THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE ONLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES APART BUT YIELD THESE VASTLY DIFFERENT
SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SEEMS A BIT FAR NORTH
DUE TO THE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER THE
SNOWFALL YIELDED BY THE GFS SEEMS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH QPF FIELD OF NEARLY ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH IS AN ORDER
OF MAGNITUDE HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL STILL
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET AS QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH IS THE
AMOUNT GIVEN BY THE ECMWF MODEL.
A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ASIDE FROM SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON MONDAY...THE WEATHER
WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE RESPITE FROM COLDER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH
DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE REGION OF SNOW NOW RACING INTO THE WESTERN UP IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY PASS NORTH OF MBS THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE HOWEVER BEEN SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHICH MAY IMPACT MBS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RUC AND
SUPPORTED BY SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR DTW...THE PROPENSITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO LEAD TO A DIFFICULT CEILING
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z KDVN SOUNDING DID SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM FROM DETROIT
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL OFFER A GREATER CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.AVIATION...
THE REGION OF SNOW NOW RACING INTO THE WESTERN UP IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY PASS NORTH OF MBS THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE HOWEVER BEEN SOME
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI WHICH MAY IMPACT MBS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RUC AND
SUPPORTED BY SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR DTW...THE PROPENSITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO LEAD TO A DIFFICULT CEILING
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z KDVN SOUNDING DID SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM FROM DETROIT
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL OFFER A GREATER CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 917 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
UPDATE...
THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT NOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL SLOPE HAS RESULTED IN SOME OCCASIONAL RADAR RETURNS
ADVANCING FROM NRN MI INTO SE MI. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS SE MI HAS
INHIBITED SNOW FROM FROM REACHING THE SFC /CEILINGS ARE STILL
ABOVE 6K FT/. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL RACE ACROSS NORTHERN MI
AND LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT. THIS AND A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
AN UPPER JET MAX OVER THE NRN LAKES WILL TIGHTEN THE THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...INVOKING A MUCH DEEPER FRONTAL
CIRCULATION. THIS ENHANCED FORCING LOOKS TO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE
MID LEVELS...FOCUSED FROM NRN LOWER MI INTO LAKE HURON BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH FAR NRN HURON COUNTY WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AS THIS REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY THIS STRONGER
FGEN.
TEMPS HAVE HELD FAIRLY STEADY THIS EVENING UNDER THE CLOUD COVER.
THE CONTRACTION OF THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME CLEARING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. IN LIGHT OF CURRENT OBS HOWEVER...FCST
NIGHTTIME MINS WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT/.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
WEAK RIDGING SETTLING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED
DIMINISH THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION IN THE DGZ LAYER TO PRODUCE FLURRIES EARLIER TODAY AS A
TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY FROM
LOWS THIS MORNING WITH MOST PLACES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
WITH THE WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH
TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED SW FLOW AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE THUMB TO SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE FIRST WAVE SLIDES ACROSS OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME
IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LITTLE MORE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. AS FAR
AS ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF TENTHS OF NEW SNOW BY 12Z.
LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MILD AIR (850 MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS) EXTENDING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. SOME OF THIS MILDER
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTING OUT...WITH UPPER LEVEL
WAVES/PV ORGANIZING ON SUNDAY OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST...ALLOWING FOR THE RUSH OF COLD
AIR BACK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY. VERY TIGHT 925-850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAKE FOR
CHALLENGING FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IF SURFACE LOW DOES MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS 12Z NAM ADVERTISED...FOG
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS MOIST (4 C DEW PT AT 925 MB)/MILD AIR
SNEAKS ACROSS THE BORDER. HOWEVER...EVEN THE NAM INDICATES THE 500
MB MAX HEIGHT FALL CENTER TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SECONDARY SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TAKING OVER
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO
SINK/RUSH BACK SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. OVERALL PREFERENCE IS WITH THE
FARTHER SOUTH/COLDER SOLUTIONS OF 12Z GFS/EURO...AS DEEP SNOW PACK
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO DEFINE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN IS LIKELY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WARM LAYER AND LACK OF
MOISTURE AT 700 MB LEVEL WHERE DRY SLOT WILL BE IN PLACE...LEADING
TO A LACK OF ICE NUCLEI. AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE...COULD BE
SOME SLEET WITHIN THE CWA...BUT LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
SHORT LIVED/MINOR IMPACT. DEBATE IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN FAST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE IN
THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND WITH 00Z UKMET GENERALLY
IN LINE WITH GFS/EURO...WILL INCLUDE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AS THE OHIO VALLEY
LOW PULLS EAST. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD (925 MB TEMPS IN
NEGATIVE LOW TO MID TEENS) TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING BACK.
NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE MONDAY AS SUNDAY/S LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND A COLDER AIR MASS IS USHERED IN. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN COLD TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE EXACT POSITION REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON. FURTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY TO QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTH
DURING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A QUIET START TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LENDS ONE TO BELIEVE
WE WON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS SOME FOG FORMING OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP AT LEAST A LITTLE...SO
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL...AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SEE SOME SPILL OVER OF THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA...SO FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF SOME IN DEVELOPING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE COMMONLY
OVER ZEALOUS NAM EVEN INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE MORE SUN EXPECTED...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT HEADING IN TO TONIGHT WHICH
CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES A TEMPERATURE OF +14C AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON AT MSP. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL A LOT TO BE SORTED OUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIP WITH THIS ONE...BUT THE GFS AND EC INDICATE THIS
WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST OF US. THE 00Z NAM LOOKED
FLAT OUT SCARY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS IT INDICATED 0.20" TO 0.30"
OF LIQUID IN SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FREEZING
RAIN. DID NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION GIVEN IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN TERMS
OF THE WAVE STRENGTH AND HOW DEEPLY IT HAD AMPLIFIED THE WAVE VS.
THE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/EC/UKMET/GEM. THE 06Z NAM RUN
JUST ARRIVED AND IT BACKED WAY OFF ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
BOUNCED THE HEAVIEST FURTHER NORTH. STILL STEERING CLEAR OF BUYING
INTO THE NAM FOR NOW. SO...BY TOMORROW MORNING...WE`LL HAVE A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO DEAL WITH...AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS A WIDE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS EXPLAINS
WHY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE DAY
GOES ON DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT FINALLY COOLING THAT
WARM LAYER BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS...THE ODDS OF
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN OUR FA AREA INCREASING...BUT MUCH STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING UNDERWAY OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT WILL SPREAD
EWD MON WHILE SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY PASSES THRU THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE MILD
TEMPS EXPERIENCED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WARMER
AIR WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN P-TYPE EXPECTED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW MON. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL WEAKEN ACRS THE ROCKIES THEN PICK UP STEAM ONCE IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HEIGHTENED ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW IN ADDITION TO ITS RESERVOIR OF PAC MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT ALONG WITH IT WILL INCRS PRECIP CHCS FOR MON NIGHT
THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESSION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT. THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE CWFA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES AGAIN DEPICT
WARMER AIR WITHIN THE BLYR TO VARYING DEPTHS FROM N TO S OVER THE
CWFA. THERE ARE DISCERNIBLE SHTWV TROF AXES ON THE GFS/EC...AND
THIS WOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THE PRECIP. A VARIETY
OF FZDZ/IP/SN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY SN FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE WFO MPX CWFA AND THE FZDZ/IP... POSSIBLY EVEN LIQUID RAIN IF
SFC TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH...CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. THE NAM LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL BASED ON ITS DEPICTION OF EVENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND HOW IT DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER THE DAKOTAS MON-TUE SO AM
DISCOUNTING IT THE MOST...MEANING THAT JUST UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LUMBERING
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE ERN CONUS UPR
LVL TROF...SPREADING SLIGHTLY WWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING PIECES OF A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER ERN CANADA INTO
THIS REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST WITH THE DROP IN
TEMPS...NO ORGANIZED WX SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOME WITH THIS PACKAGE THAT MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS WILL NOT DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...
PATCHY MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK
THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z. LIGHT ESE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 6-9 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. ONE TREND SEEN THIS EVENING
IS THAT THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF -FZRA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE 12Z RUNS. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE CANADIAN RUN SHOWS MORE OR LESS WHAT THE 12Z RUN
HAD AND THAT WAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE ECMWF INCREASES COVERAGE. AT THIS
POINT...THE -FZRA WOULDN/T SPREAD IN UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
TAF (08/06Z). SO THE ONLY TAF WITH -FZRA MENTIONED IS KMSP SINCE
IT`S A 30 HOUR TAF.
KMSP...MAINTAINED VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 08/06Z. NOT CONFIDENT ON
MVFR VISIBILITIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME MID/HI LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD SO KEPT THE 6SM IN PLACE. THE THREAT FOR -FZRA
LOOKS TO BE INCREASING FOR THE TWIN CITIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A PROB GROUP BEGINNING AT 08/09Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -FZRA/-SN. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZRA/PL/-SN. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM ACROSS ERN SD AND THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP AROUND
ONEILL. WINDS BELOW 700MB GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG UP TO 50 KTS
SUGGESTING A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 40...30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO MID 70S. THE PLACE TO WATCH IS NRN NEB WHERE SNOW COVER IS
NEARLY ABSENT AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND ARW EAST ARE
PLUGGING 70S FOR HIGHS. A CHECK ON CIRRUS THIS INDICATES SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. THE BANK OF NEARLY SOLID CIRRUS ACROSS ERN MT AND WY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SO NEARLY FULL SUN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD INDICATE A DRY WEEK AHEAD.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL TREND COOLER BY MID WEEK THOUGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND
PUSH EAST OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PUSH SOME OF THE WARMER AIR
/850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C OR GREATER/ BACK SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING INTO DETAILS A BIT MORE...A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY HEADS
OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES NEBRASKA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY. CROSS SECTIONS WOULD REVEAL THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB.
ALSO...THE LIFT /WHICH IS WEAK AS CAN BE DISCERNED FROM THE UPPER
JET AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA/ IS NOT IN THAT SAME
LAYER SO HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH MODELS
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 4C TO 10C BY 00Z MONDAY AS
COMPARED TO 12C TO 18C AS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON SUNDAY SO THIS SHOULD HELP THE MIXING FACTOR...AND EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THINK HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S LOOK APPROPRIATE. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED HOW MUCH/IF ANY INFLUENCE
THERE WILL STILL BE FROM SNOW COVER BY SUNDAY AFTER A VERY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. DID KEEP A BIT OF THAT INFLUENCE IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE...BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THAN WAS OBSERVED
FRIDAY OR IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
FAIRLY WELL OVERNIGHT...YET STAYING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
VALLEYS WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO
THE SOUTH. LOOKING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. USED MUCH LESS INFLUENCE FROM SNOW
COVER BY MONDAY AS TWO 50-70 DEGREE DAYS SHOULD MELT ALL OF THE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER
THE RIDGE SERVES TO FLATTEN IT AND FOR THE MOST PART RECEDES IT TO
THE WEST LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW RATHER THAN
SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SPAN OF DAYS
WITH BACK AND FORTH TEMPERATURES WITH SOME COOLER DAYS AND SOME
WARMER. WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SITUATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE COLDER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED EAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPLITTING ENERGY...WITH ONE PIECE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT IS NOT
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN STAYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AS THE PRIOR MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS WILL
KEEP IT FROM INFLUENCING THE MAIN FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 10Z IN
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...CONTINUING TO INCREASE DURING
THE MORNING AND BECOMING 250-280 AT 12-16G21-27KT BY 17Z. WIND WILL
LOSE ITS GUSTINESS AND DECREASE TO 10-12KT ABOUT 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE RAP AND ARW EAST SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS WHICH CAPTURE THE
SPIRIT OF THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...17 PERCENT RH AT CHEYENNE AT 2 AM CST. THESE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING CRITICAL WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. AS SUGGESTED BY SPC...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN
AND LOESS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING
STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...GUSTY WINDS STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST SITES SHOW WINDS BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING
LEVELS. HOWEVER...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME WAVE
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE OWENS VALLEY SO STRONG WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. DID GO AHEAD AND LET THE ADVISORY FOR ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE EXPIRE ON TIME WHILE THE OTHER REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST 4
AM. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION
303 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING AN IDEAL
SETUP FOR STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA. STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. STRONG...UPVALLEY WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING IN ESMERALDA COUNTY...DYER...IN
PARTICULAR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AND HRRR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO MANY OF THE SAME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUT A
DAMPER ON THE WINDS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. I INCREASED POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
TONIGHT. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND INTO RED ROCK CANYON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE... MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS...WITH SHOWER CHANCES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTH WEST AND GREAT BASIN MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MIXING FOR ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND AID IN CUTTING OFF A LOW CIRCULATION FROM THE
MAIN JET AND THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. THIS RELATIVELY DRY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH UTAH OR NEVADA BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DRIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY SOME RARE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS LOW. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND SOUTHEAST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THAT SAID...MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS
THIS...WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO.
FOR THE MOMENT I HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AT MCCARRAN TO SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 KTS BY 05Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AT 25K CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOB FL050 IN THE OWENS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
SLOPES AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OWENS VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. RAIN WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY AND POINTS EAST INTO ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF LOWER
CIGS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAME LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR BLOWING DUST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CZYZYK
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND THEN WEST...SERVING
TO PUSH THE STRATUS EASTBOUND. KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF
THE STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH KJMS SUCCUMBING TO MVFR CIGS PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY UNTIL 15Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN WITH EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AT KISN...SLEET
OR SNOW AT KMOT...AND LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...BETWEEN 03Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD/06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM JORDAN
MONTANA...INTO BEACH...HETTINGER...AND OVER TO MOBRIDGE SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A STRATUS FIELD WAS COVERING THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA/JUST GETTING INTO MINOT. PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MAY THICKEN INTO A STRATUS DECK...HOWEVER QUITE A BIT
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLIDING THROUGH SHOULD NEGATE SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS THE STRATUS FROM AROUND
MINOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE BISMARCK VICINITY AND LOCATIONS EAST.
WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA SCOOTS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT
HALTING THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CANADIAN
RADARS OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DO INDICATE PRECIPITATION
BUT LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND AS SURFACE LOCATIONS UNDERNEATH
GENERALLY REPORTING DRY CONDITIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
GRADUALLY WASHES OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAP13 AND
HRRR KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE MAIN CONCERN FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
COME BETWEEN 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE
NEXT UPDATE AFTER ALL MODEL DATA IS IN AND ANALYZED. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD.
A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...ARCHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT 60 IN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AS OF 20 UTC ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND STRATUS...HIGHS QUICKLY DROP OFF ALL THE WAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE STATUS FIELD ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS FIELD HAS NEARLY HALTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS NOW ONLY SUGGEST THE
STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE
SAKAKAWEA LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND
FOG FORMATION UNDER MUCH OF THE BANK TONIGHT. BY 08-09 UTC
TONIGHT...THE RAP/HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM ALL POINT TO THE STRATUS
AND FOG BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO BISECT LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
FOR SATURDAY...MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER IS FORECAST BE IN THE 50S WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING INTO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION - SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SNOW AN
FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND WARMER AIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW AT VARIOUS
TIME PERIODS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP IN A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. SATURDAY EVENING THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY FROM CROSBY/WILLISTON TO MANDAN/BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN/OAKES.
LARGE VARIATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY...TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS VARYING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...EMERGING IN
THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...OR SLEET NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
SOUTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND THEN WEST...SERVING
TO PUSH THE STRATUS EASTBOUND. KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF
THE STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH KJMS SUCCUMBING TO MVFR CIGS PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY UNTIL 15Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN WITH EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AT KISN...SLEET
OR SNOW AT KMOT...AND LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...BETWEEN 03Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD/06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
BASED ON REGIONAL US AND CANADIAN RADARS HAVE PULLED POPS FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR NE TIP OF THE FA...MAINLY THE NORTHWEST ANGLE VCNTY.
WITH CLEARING TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN SPITE OF WARM
ADVECTION. LOWERED MINS ACROSS FAR S AND NW. THICKER CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD LEVEL OFF DROP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TRIM POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW FA AS PCPC HAS
SHIFTED EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PCPC POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
HEADACHE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT MOVE INTO MT...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT TOMORROW. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO SD/NEB WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP LOWS TONIGHT FAIRLY MILD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH
OF LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
IS FURTHER SOUTH AND HAS ABOUT 10 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID OVER LAKE
OF THE WOODS COUNTY AS THE NAM. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN BETWEEN
WITH ABOUT 0.10 OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW PRECIP LAST
NIGHT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION AND CUT QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THINK THAT THE FAR
NORTHERN END OF LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY COULD SEE 4 INCHES OR
MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THAT.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SD INTO IA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 18Z NAM
HAS AN INSANE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE 12Z RUN.
THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
WITH THAT SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...BUT THE GFS GIVES US SOME. KEPT
SOME 20-30 POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THAT SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
AND SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NORTHERN WAVE...BUT
WENT DRY IN THE CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH VERY
WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND EVEN SOME SPOTS AT THE SFC PUSHING
FREEZING...THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS AT ALL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVES PULL OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SURGE OF COLDER
AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGHS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
ALSO BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THAT WEAK HIGH
WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM TOTALLY BOTTOMING OUT. KEPT TEMPS
STILL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION. MODEL QPF CREATES A STORM TOTAL MAXIMA ACROSS DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND TO THE BJI-BDE AREAS. A QUARTER TO A THIRD
OF QPF ALONG THIS AREA THEN TAPERING TO THE SOUTH WITH A TENTH IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. LOW TRACK ESSENTIAL ON PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW
BAND ONE UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH 925-850MB PLUS
0C AIR ADVECTS. THE FARTHER NORTH THE MORE OF A MIX IS POSSIBLE AND
WILL LOWER SNOW RATIOS WHICH IN TURN LOWERS POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. NONETHELESS BEST SIGNAL IN QUIET A
WHILE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS SINGLE DIGITS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED
AND THURS BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015
CIGS WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MASKING ANY LOW LEVEL CIGS BUT CURRENTLY ALL SITES VFR.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WHICH HAS YET TO PAN OUT. HRRR MORE REASONABLE KEEPING
MOST SITES VFR AND FOLLOWED FOR CURRENT TAFS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
425 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP TODAY WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS JUST NORTHEAST
OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF THE DAY OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING A LOW CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH LOW CLOUD DECK NOT DEVELOPING
UNTIL OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO
NEAR FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS THE CASE AND WE START TO
MELT THE SNOWPACK WITH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION...SUSPECT WE WILL
SEE A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOP. THE RUC SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK EXPANDING
BY 20-22Z AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WARMING THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UP A DEGREE AND
LEAVING THE NORTHERN AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE
AND CLOSER TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MOISTURE INCREASES
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT
05Z WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER INDICATION OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM THE OVERNIGHT TAFS.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO DEPICT MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
IN PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE
DRIZZLE DEVELOP. ALSO PUT IN LLWS FOR AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM MAINLY THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE AT
2KFT WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 240 TO 260 DEGREES AT 45 KTS OR SO.
USUALLY PREFER WINDS ALOFT A BIT STRONGER BUT DIRECTION
DIFFERENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED SHEAR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1129 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COLLECTING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
SOME FLURRIES TO AFFECT THE FAR NE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SW WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR A CHANGE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD ZONAL FLOW BUT
THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS A FAST MOVING PERTURBATION MOVES EAST INTO
THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA.
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THIS IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHO WILL WIN THE BATTLE.
STILL CONCERNED THAT COLD AIR BUILDING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MAY
UNDERCUT THE WARM AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CONCERN IS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. SO WILL BE LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF EITHER FROZEN
OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND NO FREEZING PRECIPITATION. BUT THIS
STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
AFTER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS STORM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AT THIS POINT KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOWBELT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEING. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK
INTO THE TEENS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT
05Z WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER INDICATION OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM THE OVERNIGHT TAFS.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO DEPICT MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
IN PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE
DRIZZLE DEVELOP. ALSO PUT IN LLWS FOR AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM MAINLY THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE AT
2KFT WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 240 TO 260 DEGREES AT 45 KTS OR SO.
USUALLY PREFER WINDS ALOFT A BIT STRONGER BUT DIRECTION
DIFFERENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED SHEAR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THEN WOBBLE
EITHER SIDE OF LAKE ERIE INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRACK FOR
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. HIGHS TODAY
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHAT TYPE
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED MUCH WARMER
DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 2-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS OF 8-11C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER 15-20C
READINGS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WARM AIR WAS
ALSO QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-50 PERCENT
BETWEEN 925-500MB FROM THE FORECAST AREA WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS EXCLUDING NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...MOST CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO JUST CIRRUS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR
AND STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. SOME BR HAS FORMED OVER THE SNOW PACK
DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY EAST. SURFACE PATTERN DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIERRE SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO GREEN BAY WI.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND THEN
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FORECAST TO REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...MAINLY
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE ALSO SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE AS COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR OVER NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINS TO FLOW IN.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE REAL STRUGGLE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
THOUGH. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK...HIGHS TODAY COULD EASILY
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED IN THE 10-14C RANGE...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND JUST SOME CIRRUS
AROUND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN RIVER
VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE LOWER ALBEDO FROM MORE
TREES PRESENT SHOULD ALLOWS HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL...BOTH OF WHICH TEND TO PERFORM WELL IN
ANAMOLOUSLY WARM SITUATIONS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...AND WITH MAINLY CIRRUS IN THE EVENING
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK
TOWARDS DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN THE 20S. THUS...BELOW FREEZING SEEM
REASONABLE. SOME BR IS LIKELY AGAIN DUE TO THE RELEASE OF SNOW PACK
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING DEWPOINTS.
NOW KNOWING THE LOWS TONIGHT...WE CAN DISCUSS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. DRY WARMER AIR
LINGERING ALOFT...ABOVE 4C...SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIQUID. GIVEN THE LOWS...THAT BRINGS UP THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IN
THE FIRST PLACE...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEED SUNDAY MORNING?
2. CLOUDS/TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. MONITORING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NEBRASKA AT 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS TO PASS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI. THUS...THE BULK
OF THE DPVA FORCING LOOKS TO MISS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH COOLING/MOISTENING LOW LEVELS UNDER A
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 07.00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP SOME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THE STRONGEST CONSENSUS EXISTS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. A WARM LAYER ALOFT FEATURING 3C OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORTIVE COOLING. SO A TRANSITION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO COLDER AIR BELOW
0C...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SHUT OFF. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-
90...IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS SHOULD PLAGUE THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A NORTH WIND DRAGGING COLDER AIR
IN...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS TO BE STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. GIVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO
-12C ON MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COLDER ON
MONDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP OFF QUITE A BIT MONDAY EVENING IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT AS EXPECTED...BEFORE CLIMBING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST COMING OUT OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND TODAY...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA FORCING SEEMS TO BE HEADING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 07.00Z GFS. STILL HAVE CARRIED
BROADBRUSH 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...HIGHEST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS AS WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TOO ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
ANOTHER ARCTIC COOL SHOT REMAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS COOL TO AT LEAST -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THU FROM THE
07.00Z ECMWF...AND POSSIBLY COLDER IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT ON THE FLIP
SIDE KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN. ITS POSSIBLE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS
SCENARIO. GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY WITH
MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN. VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AIR PROVIDED BY THE
ARCTIC COOL SHOT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SHOT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY / VALENTINES DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2025
KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SD THROUGH NORTHERN IA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SOME LIGHT 5-6SM BR HAS FORMED OVER THE LAST HOUR SO
ACROSS IA AND AT KRST AS WELL. STILL THINKING VSBY WILL HOVER IN
THE 4-6SM RANGE THROUGH 14Z AS DRIER DOWNSLOPED AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOWER VSBYS. KLSE
MAINTAINING A 8 DEGREE T/TD SPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT FEEL SOME LIGHT
5SM BR STILL POSSIBLE THERE IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME AS THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TOWARD THE DEW POINT. VFR DAY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES A BIT MORE NORTHERN INTO
SOUTHERN MN/FAR SOUTHERN WI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE OF
THAT WARMER DOWNSLOPED AIR INTO THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD
LATER SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 5-6SM BR EXPECTED TO FORM BETWEEN
03-06Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
629 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING
THE I-90 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY A STORM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...INTENSIFY AND MOVE
EAST TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A
WINTRY MIX IN FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THIS SYSTEMS WILL DEPART
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 629 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTH
COUNTRY OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING SO FAR
THIS MORNING...AS THIS SNOWFALL HAS BEEN EXTREMELY LIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE SOME FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS WELL. A 130+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA IN THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD TODAY AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...OUR AREA WILL BE IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 HPA.
WITH THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE...STEADY LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO
BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 09Z RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LIGHT
SNOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. SNOWFALL RATE LOOKS TO PICKUP SOMEWHAT
FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO...PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW...AS
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO HELPS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS
OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SNOWFALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY. AMOUNTS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
MAY COME CLOSE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY YET IF
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OCCURRING
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...PERHAPS FALLING A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC STARTS TO
DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS
REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO REST OF FCA FOR THE
SAME PERIOD...
THE THREAT OF ONGOING SNOW INCREASES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE CONSIDERABLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SUF AGREEMENT WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRIFTING SLOWLY S AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE MIDWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS A 500HPA
SHORT WV EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EAST...AND
CENTER JUMPS TO THE VCNTY OF N CHESAPEAKE BAY...AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE..DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH...THIS SCENARIO IS A PROLONGED OVERRUNNING
EVENT...WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC FORCING AS THE SHORT WV DEEPENS
THE SFC LOW AND INCR UVM SUN NT/MON. THE NAM TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER
N...WITH BULK OF PCPN I90 AND NORTH...WHICH NCEP AS CONSIDERED AN
OUTLIER EXHIBITING KNOWN BIASES. HENCE THE NAM WAS NOT
CONSIDERED.
18UTC AND 00UTC GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES CLUSTERED ARND QPF OF 1.00 IN
LIQ EQ WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING SUN INTO MON. THE 00UTC
OPERATIONAL RUN IS IN THE SAME RANGE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONCERNS...THIS QPF IS OVER 3 OR EVEN MORE
PERIODS. THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST SOME ZR MIX SOUTHERN
TIER...BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO REACH THE MIXED CRITERIA IS
DEBATABLE.
WPC WINTER WX DESK HAS MUCH OF AREA OVER 12-15 INCHES OVER DAYS
2-3 IN MUCH OF THE FCA EXCEPT THE FAR NW AND SE CORNERS. SO
REACHING THE 9 OR MORE IN 24 OR MORE HOURS CRITERIA IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND JUSTIFIES A WATCH WITH ITS 50 PCT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL.
AT THIS POINT WILL EXPAND WATCH TO ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT IT MAY
BE SOME TIME BFE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
WARNING...AND IT COULD EASILY GO TO AN ADVISORY SVRL AREAS
INSTEAD OF THE WARNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION.
MON NT N WIND GRADIENT WILL INCR WITH INCRG BLOWING AND DRIFTING
POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TUE MRNG AS SFC LOW MVS
OUT TO SEA...AND IN FAST 500 HPA FLOW...SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER AREA
TUES AFTN...AND RETREATS N TUE NT. LATE TUES NEXT 500 HPA SHORT
WV AND ITS ATTENDANT CLIPPER MV INTO THE GRTLKS W/INCG CLOUDS.
TEMPS WILL BE +/- 5 DEG FM NORMALS MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SHARP 500 HPA TROF RACES FM THE UPR GRT
PLAINS WED TO FCA THU. IT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SN AND
-SNSH LATE WED INTO THU. THU AFTN INTO FRI STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF LES BEHIND IT..BUT N
FLOW WILL KEEP THIS WEST OF FCA. STILL SCT -SHSN ASSOC WITH
PASSING UPR TROF...CAA OVER HIR TRRN THU NT. FRI WILL BRING FAIR
BUT VRY COLD CONDS AS TROF MOVES E OF FCA...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS E OVER MOST OF EASTERN USA. TEMPS WILL BLO NORMAL TURNING
FRIGID FRI INTO SAT. WILL POP WITH HPC MID SHIFT GUID. NOT MUCH
SPREAD OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE DURING THIS PERIOD OTHER THAN ECMWF IS
6-12 HOURS SLOWER WITH CLIPPER THAN GFS.
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR (AND
WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15
ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5
BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA...BKN-OVC CIGS AT
2-5 KFT ARE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES.
THESE SNOW FLURRIES ARE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON VSBYS...BUT
MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT SOME SITES DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP BY AFTN FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF. IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AT
KPOU...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THERE TOWARDS
EVENING. WITHIN LIGHT SNOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR
FOR BOTH VSBYS/CIGS...AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY EVENING FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY EVENING AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO A NE DIRECTION AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL
ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER
BODIES OF WATER.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY
WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
824 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS...SPREADING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB/BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. THIN CLOUD COVER
WILL START THE DAY...WITH STEADY WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...OR MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 8KT
OR LESS. WITH STEADY FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG SPREADING TO AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING.
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...ON THE BACK OF THIS LOW THE GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK. THIS
COULD BE AN IDEAL SCENARIO WITH MELTING SNOWPACK FOR CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS AND DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
FOR TIMING/DURATION OF LOW VSBYS. HAVE OPTED TO TREND VSBYS DOWN
TOWARDS 1SM...BUT COULD SEE THIS BEING MUCH TOO HIGH AND MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE WEATHER...PATCHY DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THAT COULD BECOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH MIDDAY.
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING...LOW/MEDIUM IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
MDB/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
544 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
High cirrus will continue to effect all sites next 24hrs, either
scattered or broken, resulting in continued VFR conditions. With
dewpoint spreads being small in the PIA and BMI areas, will be
including a TEMPO group for light fog for couple of hours this
morning. Models continuing to forecast low stratus and fog
tomorrow evening. However, believe models are overdoing the low
level moisture a little. So will not be putting low stratus or fog
in the TAFs. Will not be adding drizzle either since there will
not be any low clouds to produce it in the TAFs. Winds will be
south- southwest through most of the period with wind speeds
around 12-15kts. Models do seem to show LLWS so will be adding
this starting in the evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
431 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30-35KT AT
KMCK. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AT KGLD...THOUGH GUSTS
AROUND 18-20KT ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL
DIMINISH SOME AROUND 00Z...INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING
(03-05Z) AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. GUSTS
25-30KT ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
516 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Record high temperatures are still on track later today as the
pattern aloft continues to support warm downslope flow off the
eastern Rockies. A weak trough will track across the plains today,
which will help push that warm air over eastern KS. Soundings
indicate that daytime mixing will reach about 925 mb, with the
exception of the snow covered areas along the NE state line. An
analysis of the 925 mb temperatures show that the thermal axis is
forecast to focus somewhere over I-70 and the NE state line.
Cooler temperatures will again reside across southeastern KS
similar to yesterday where highs were over estimated. The RAP is
the most aggressive with daytime mixing reaching a height of 900
mb, but this is common with this model making it sort of the upper
bound. Mixing those temperatures down to the surface would mean
highs in the mid to upper 70s, so it seems reasonable that this
will be unlikely. Therefore have went with highs in the low to mid
70s along I-70, near 60 over the snow covered areas, and upper 60s
in southeast KS. The record for Topeka is 71 set in 2009 and
Concordia is 69 set in 1990, while the forecast for both is 72.
Winds will not be as high as yesterday with the exception of
southeast KS with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Warm and dry conditions
again will cause high to very high fire danger for the southwest
half of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Next upper shortwave trof and associated front pass over the
eastern part of the state early Sunday morning, bringing breezy
northwest winds along with it. Temperatures behind this wave are
rather mild and still anticipate will mix into the 50s northeast
to lower/middle 60s south and west. The breezy conditions combined
with relatively warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s will
bring very high fire danger back into the area mainly west and
south of Manhattan on Sunday afternoon.
The surface high moves south and to our east into Sunday night and
Monday, keeping lows mixed into the 30s and bring easterly winds
and somewhat cooler highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday.
Zonal flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface bring highs
back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, before the next
cold front comes southward across the Central Plains early
Wednesday. After lows in the 30s, if the front comes in early
won`t expect much of a warm up but into the 40s and temperatures
may then fall again through the day as the cooler air comes south.
Have backed off again on precipitation chances as little moisture
has a chance to reestablish itself before the colder dry air mass
returns. Lows cool back into the teens and 30s overnight. Thursday
would remain colder in the 30s as cold high continues to be pushed
southward by northerly flow aloft. May get some recovery back into
the 40s into Friday if colder air can be moved eastward and
thermal axis ahead of the next front gets a chance to mix down
some warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR conditions expected through the taf period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 30S. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S LATER TODAY IN SPITE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA WELL NORTH OF KGRR. FURTHER
SOUTH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATER
TODAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT PCPN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THAT WILL
TRANSITION TO PLAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATER SUNDAY
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN.
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
A BITTER COLD AIR MASS SURGES IN BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR LOOKS POSSIBLE BEYOND THE LONG TERM
PERIOD... THE WEEKEND OF FEB 14-15.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THE CLIPPER COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SYNOPTIC SNOW POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS BRIEF BEHIND THE CLIPPER AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW GOES QUICKLY NORTHERLY AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN.
THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ABOUT A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD WHERE
SOME PRETTY DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 131 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN ICY
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY PLUMMET WITH THE SFC
RIDGE OVERHEAD. ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND IT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISING IN THIS PATTERN TO SEE AN IMPRESSIVE MID LAKE
CONVERGENCE SNOW BAND SET UP. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THIS BAND WOULD
LIKELY COME BACK ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE COLD TOO WITH SFC RIDGING AND CLEAR SKIES.
WE MAY HAVE TO TREND TEMPS DOWN TO INCLUDE SOME SUB ZERO READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL RH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER MVFR
CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF TAF SITES TODAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG...WILL FEATURE PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS TODAY BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE MVFR CIGS COULD EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS BELOW 2500 FT IS MUCH HIGHER TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z WHEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015
FAIRLY STEADY RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA... WITH NO
SITES NEAR BANKFULL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW
FREEZING INTO THIS WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE ICE ON AREA
RIVERS REMAINING LOCKED UP. CURRENTLY... THERE ARE NO SUSPECTED ICE
JAMS IN THE AREA. SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
UNLIKELY UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND RAINFALL OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A QUIET START TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LENDS ONE TO BELIEVE
WE WON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS SOME FOG FORMING OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP AT LEAST A LITTLE...SO
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL...AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SEE SOME SPILL OVER OF THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA...SO FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF SOME IN DEVELOPING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE COMMONLY
OVER ZEALOUS NAM EVEN INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE MORE SUN EXPECTED...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT HEADING IN TO TONIGHT WHICH
CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES A TEMPERATURE OF +14C AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON AT MSP. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL A LOT TO BE SORTED OUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIP WITH THIS ONE...BUT THE GFS AND EC INDICATE THIS
WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST OF US. THE 00Z NAM LOOKED
FLAT OUT SCARY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS IT INDICATED 0.20" TO 0.30"
OF LIQUID IN SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FREEZING
RAIN. DID NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION GIVEN IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN TERMS
OF THE WAVE STRENGTH AND HOW DEEPLY IT HAD AMPLIFIED THE WAVE VS.
THE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/EC/UKMET/GEM. THE 06Z NAM RUN
JUST ARRIVED AND IT BACKED WAY OFF ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
BOUNCED THE HEAVIEST FURTHER NORTH. STILL STEERING CLEAR OF BUYING
INTO THE NAM FOR NOW. SO...BY TOMORROW MORNING...WE`LL HAVE A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO DEAL WITH...AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS A WIDE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS EXPLAINS
WHY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE DAY
GOES ON DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT FINALLY COOLING THAT
WARM LAYER BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS...THE ODDS OF
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN OUR FA AREA INCREASING...BUT MUCH STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING UNDERWAY OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT WILL SPREAD
EWD MON WHILE SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY PASSES THRU THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE MILD
TEMPS EXPERIENCED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WARMER
AIR WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN P-TYPE EXPECTED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW MON. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL WEAKEN ACRS THE ROCKIES THEN PICK UP STEAM ONCE IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HEIGHTENED ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW IN ADDITION TO ITS RESERVOIR OF PAC MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT ALONG WITH IT WILL INCRS PRECIP CHCS FOR MON NIGHT
THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESSION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT. THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE CWFA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES AGAIN DEPICT
WARMER AIR WITHIN THE BLYR TO VARYING DEPTHS FROM N TO S OVER THE
CWFA. THERE ARE DISCERNIBLE SHTWV TROF AXES ON THE GFS/EC...AND
THIS WOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THE PRECIP. A VARIETY
OF FZDZ/IP/SN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY SN FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE WFO MPX CWFA AND THE FZDZ/IP... POSSIBLY EVEN LIQUID RAIN IF
SFC TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH...CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. THE NAM LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL BASED ON ITS DEPICTION OF EVENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND HOW IT DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER THE DAKOTAS MON-TUE SO AM
DISCOUNTING IT THE MOST...MEANING THAT JUST UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LUMBERING
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE ERN CONUS UPR
LVL TROF...SPREADING SLIGHTLY WWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING PIECES OF A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER ERN CANADA INTO
THIS REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST WITH THE DROP IN
TEMPS...NO ORGANIZED WX SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA.
MAIN CONCERN IS TONIGHT...AS MID AND LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.
TIMING OF THE CEILINGS AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT AS THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH STILL HAS SOME DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND STRENGTH. ONLY MENTIONED PRECIP AT RWF AND MSP.
THINKING AXN THROUGH STC...RNH...AND EAU SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE SO WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE TAF FOR THESE
SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD BE ADDED LATER. ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN AS VERY WARM LOW LEVEL PROFILE TAKES TIME TO COOL BELOW
FREEZING. MPX RAOB THIS MORNING INDICATED A TEMPERATURE OF +13C
LESS THAN 3K FT AGL...QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH WHILE THE SURFACE
WAS CLOSER TO -5C. NOT MUCH FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THE LITTLE THERE IS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING.
KMSP...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL BEING
OPTIMISTIC THAT VFR WILL BE CARRIED LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW COULD SWITCH TO SNOW AS
THE WARM LAYER COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS. CHC -FZRA/-SN. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS BCMG SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. CHC -FZRA/PL/-SN. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM ACROSS ERN SD AND THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP AROUND
ONEILL. WINDS BELOW 700MB GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG UP TO 50 KTS
SUGGESTING A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 40...30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO MID 70S. THE PLACE TO WATCH IS NRN NEB WHERE SNOW COVER IS
NEARLY ABSENT AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND ARW EAST ARE
PLUGGING 70S FOR HIGHS. A CHECK ON CIRRUS THIS INDICATES SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. THE BANK OF NEARLY SOLID CIRRUS ACROSS ERN MT AND WY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SO NEARLY FULL SUN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD INDICATE A DRY WEEK AHEAD.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL TREND COOLER BY MID WEEK THOUGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND
PUSH EAST OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PUSH SOME OF THE WARMER AIR
/850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C OR GREATER/ BACK SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING INTO DETAILS A BIT MORE...A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY HEADS
OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES NEBRASKA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY. CROSS SECTIONS WOULD REVEAL THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB.
ALSO...THE LIFT /WHICH IS WEAK AS CAN BE DISCERNED FROM THE UPPER
JET AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA/ IS NOT IN THAT SAME
LAYER SO HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH MODELS
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 4C TO 10C BY 00Z MONDAY AS
COMPARED TO 12C TO 18C AS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON SUNDAY SO THIS SHOULD HELP THE MIXING FACTOR...AND EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THINK HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S LOOK APPROPRIATE. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED HOW MUCH/IF ANY INFLUENCE
THERE WILL STILL BE FROM SNOW COVER BY SUNDAY AFTER A VERY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. DID KEEP A BIT OF THAT INFLUENCE IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE...BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THAN WAS OBSERVED
FRIDAY OR IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
FAIRLY WELL OVERNIGHT...YET STAYING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
VALLEYS WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO
THE SOUTH. LOOKING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. USED MUCH LESS INFLUENCE FROM SNOW
COVER BY MONDAY AS TWO 50-70 DEGREE DAYS SHOULD MELT ALL OF THE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER
THE RIDGE SERVES TO FLATTEN IT AND FOR THE MOST PART RECEDES IT TO
THE WEST LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW RATHER THAN
SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SPAN OF DAYS
WITH BACK AND FORTH TEMPERATURES WITH SOME COOLER DAYS AND SOME
WARMER. WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SITUATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE COLDER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED EAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPLITTING ENERGY...WITH ONE PIECE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT IS NOT
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN STAYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AS THE PRIOR MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS WILL
KEEP IT FROM INFLUENCING THE MAIN FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KONL NORTH TO THE
SD BORDER AROUND 09Z TONIGHT IN CIGS 060-120. OTHERWISE SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE RAP AND ARW EAST SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS WHICH CAPTURE THE
SPIRIT OF THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...17 PERCENT RH AT CHEYENNE AT 2 AM CST. THESE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING CRITICAL WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. AS SUGGESTED BY SPC...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN
AND LOESS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
908 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND THE 12 UTC NAM HAVE COME IN WITH HEAVIER
QPF AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND WRF-ARW AND NMM.
THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS LEAD TO GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEING
PARSED OUT ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE REMAINDER OF
THE 12 UTC PACKAGE CONVERGES ON THIS SCENARIO...A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER. FOR MORNING UPDATE
TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT KMOT
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KJMS. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK
AND KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT...AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ABOVE
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER. FOR MORNING UPDATE
TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT KMOT
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KJMS. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK
AND KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT...AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ABOVE
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
923 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND EVERYTHING APPEARS ON
TRACK AND EXPECTED WEATHER REPRESENTED WELL. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
MID MORNING UPDATE. WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH THE NEXT FULL SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT THEY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. CLOUD DECK NEAR
3000-4000K FEET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
NAM/HRRR BOTH HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING ANY LOW STRATUS UNTIL TONIGHT
AND STARTING TO THINK THIS MIGHT BE THE CASE WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL AT OR BELOW 20 DEGREES THIS MORNING. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR IN THE NE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN THIS EVENING. ALSO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME NE UNTIL TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAMP UP TODAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF
THE DAY OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A LOW CLOUD DECK TO
FILL IN BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH LOW
CLOUD DECK NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS ARE COMPARABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THIS IS THE CASE AND WE START TO MELT THE SNOWPACK WITH A VERY
SHALLOW INVERSION...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOP.
THE RUC SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK EXPANDING BY 20-22Z AND WILL LEAN THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN
SOME AREAS COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST). ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...WARMING
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UP A DEGREE AND LEAVING THE NORTHERN
AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE. DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME STRATOCUMLUS FLOATING AROUND THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND THEN JUST WAITING FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY LOW
CLOUDS...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOP IT OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND THEN MOVES IT NORTH. THIS EVENING SOME DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AND BY LATE TONIGHT LLWS MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
NON VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT THEY HAVE ON TEMPERATURES
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. CLOUD DECK NEAR
3000-4000K FEET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
NAM/HRRR BOTH HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING ANY LOW STRATUS UNTIL TONIGHT
AND STARTING TO THINK THIS MIGHT BE THE CASE WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL AT OR BELOW 20 DEGREES THIS MORNING. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR IN THE NE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN THIS EVENING. ALSO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE EXTREME NE UNTIL TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
RAMP UP TODAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF
THE DAY OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A LOW CLOUD DECK TO
FILL IN BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH LOW
CLOUD DECK NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS ARE COMPARABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THIS IS THE CASE AND WE START TO MELT THE SNOWPACK WITH A VERY
SHALLOW INVERSION...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOP.
THE RUC SHOWS LOW CLOUD DECK EXPANDING BY 20-22Z AND WILL LEAN THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN
SOME AREAS COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHEAST). ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...WARMING
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES UP A DEGREE AND LEAVING THE NORTHERN
AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE. DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME STRATOCUMLUS FLOATING AROUND THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND THEN JUST WAITING FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY LOW
CLOUDS...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOP IT OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND THEN MOVES IT NORTH. THIS EVENING SOME DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AND BY LATE TONIGHT LLWS MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
NON VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
532 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KSPS 15-16Z...THEN
DIMINISH AT THESE SITES 23-24Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR EAST OF KAVK-
KCSM-KLTS-KABI AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY IS CONTENDING WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE ARE
10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS
IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THUS...WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 EAST OF I-35 TO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THESE FORECAST HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO
THE HRRR AND RAP13 FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE NEAR TERM MODELS DID A VERY GOOD JOB HANDLING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR
AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE GUSTS MAY BE 25 TO 30 MPH. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
NORTH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE NO COLD
AIR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...NEAR TODAY/S READINGS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SPOTTY AND
LIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
MBS
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND
JUST SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE GUSTS MAY BE 25 TO 30 MPH.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING
NORTH WINDS...DRY WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE OF GETTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS REMAINS JUST LOW ENOUGH
TO NOT ALLOW FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. NORTH WINDS MAY BE IN THE 15 TO
30 MPH RANGE BETWEEN 9 AM AND 5 PM SUNDAY TO ENHANCE WILDFIRE
DANGER.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
MBS
CLIMATE...
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HERE ARE THE
RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937
WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8
OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999
WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 41 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 38 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 79 32 74 31 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 42 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 70 49 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/17/17
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. HIGHS TODAY
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHAT TYPE
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED MUCH WARMER
DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 2-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS OF 8-11C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER 15-20C
READINGS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WARM AIR WAS
ALSO QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-50 PERCENT
BETWEEN 925-500MB FROM THE FORECAST AREA WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS EXCLUDING NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...MOST CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO JUST CIRRUS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR
AND STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. SOME BR HAS FORMED OVER THE SNOW PACK
DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY EAST. SURFACE PATTERN DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIERRE SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO GREEN BAY WI.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND THEN
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FORECAST TO REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...MAINLY
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE ALSO SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE AS COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR OVER NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINS TO FLOW IN.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE REAL STRUGGLE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
THOUGH. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK...HIGHS TODAY COULD EASILY
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED IN THE 10-14C RANGE...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND JUST SOME CIRRUS
AROUND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN RIVER
VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE LOWER ALBEDO FROM MORE
TREES PRESENT SHOULD ALLOWS HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL...BOTH OF WHICH TEND TO PERFORM WELL IN
ANAMOLOUSLY WARM SITUATIONS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...AND WITH MAINLY CIRRUS IN THE EVENING
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK
TOWARDS DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN THE 20S. THUS...BELOW FREEZING SEEM
REASONABLE. SOME BR IS LIKELY AGAIN DUE TO THE RELEASE OF SNOW PACK
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING DEWPOINTS.
NOW KNOWING THE LOWS TONIGHT...WE CAN DISCUSS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. DRY WARMER AIR
LINGERING ALOFT...ABOVE 4C...SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIQUID. GIVEN THE LOWS...THAT BRINGS UP THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IN
THE FIRST PLACE...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEED SUNDAY MORNING?
2. CLOUDS/TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. MONITORING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NEBRASKA AT 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS TO PASS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI. THUS...THE BULK
OF THE DPVA FORCING LOOKS TO MISS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH COOLING/MOISTENING LOW LEVELS UNDER A
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 07.00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP SOME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THE STRONGEST CONSENSUS EXISTS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. A WARM LAYER ALOFT FEATURING 3C OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORTIVE COOLING. SO A TRANSITION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO COLDER AIR BELOW
0C...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SHUT OFF. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-
90...IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS SHOULD PLAGUE THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A NORTH WIND DRAGGING COLDER AIR
IN...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS TO BE STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. GIVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO
-12C ON MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COLDER ON
MONDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP OFF QUITE A BIT MONDAY EVENING IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT AS EXPECTED...BEFORE CLIMBING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST COMING OUT OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND TODAY...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA FORCING SEEMS TO BE HEADING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 07.00Z GFS. STILL HAVE CARRIED
BROADBRUSH 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...HIGHEST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS AS WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TOO ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
ANOTHER ARCTIC COOL SHOT REMAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS COOL TO AT LEAST -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THU FROM THE
07.00Z ECMWF...AND POSSIBLY COLDER IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT ON THE FLIP
SIDE KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN. ITS POSSIBLE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS
SCENARIO. GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY WITH
MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN. VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AIR PROVIDED BY THE
ARCTIC COOL SHOT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SHOT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY / VALENTINES DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THROUGH 07.14Z...BR WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE
3 TO 5 STATUE MILE RANGE. OTHERWISE THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CEILINGS MAY EVEN LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTING OFF THE PLAINS...CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO OPTED JUST GO WITH A
SCATTERED MVFR CEILING FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
354 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
* VSBY EASES DOWNWARD TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
SUB 1SM VSBY POSSIBLE LATE.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS NOT UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
222 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR SOME LOW MVFR STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING.
* VSBY FALLS TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SUB 1SM
VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT TURN NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS IS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CST
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING 30
KT AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WARMER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENS UP TUESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRONT THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
212 PM CST
THROUGH MONDAY...
CONCERNS AROUND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE...MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT WHICH WAS BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. WE HAVE A FEW STRAGGLER COLD SPOTS LIKE
ROCHELLE AND DEKALB THAT HAVE TRAILED BEHIND DUE TO SOME LINGERING
FOG. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S...SO
CHANCES ARE INCREASING. RAP MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE
MOST SUCCESS IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDIFIED. WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE THIS EVENING...BUT
BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT...AS BETTER PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND THUS AREAS FROM I-80 NORTHWARD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND IF WE ARE SATURATED
DOWNSTAIRS...THERE IS SOME WEAK TO MAYBE MODERATE LIFT IN THE LOW
LAYERS...INITIALLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THEN SOME VERY LOW
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THE AS THE 925 MB BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS THUS FAR...NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH
THE NAM/RAP/SREF TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INSTEAD OF THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BELIEVE THE MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY DIP TO
FREEZING OR SO LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONCERNS ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM
850-700 MB...WHICH SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY MORNING
PRECIPITATION WISE OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOW THERMAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
I-55 AND SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DURING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD PERIOD FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THIS PERIOD OF TIME HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DESPITE GLOBAL MODELS
PAINTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. HAVE GENERALLY
CARRIED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WHEN WE WOULD HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER SATURATION. MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY.
A LITTLE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP DOWN THE LAKE FOR A DECENT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT SNOW PRODUCTION WOULD BE LESS
THAN IDEAL. BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES DO GET BETTER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. STILL...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS SPIT OUT
SOME QPF OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND
A CONVERGENCE SIGNAL HANGING ON INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN REALITY...THIS SIGNAL HANGS ON EVEN OVERNIGHT
FOR NW INDIANA WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY
STILL CONTINUE. 850-700 RH IS DISSIPATING ALL THE WHILE ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERS TO THE WEST. BUT MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
212 PM CST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A BIT MORE GUSTO ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THORUGH
THE DAY SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES I-88 NORTHWARD. PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST SNOW/SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IF THE PRECIP GETS SOUTH OF I-80...IT
WOULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDS.
ANOTHER GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY WITH THIS COLD
PUSH...ALONG WITH SOME DECENT WINDS. THE SURFACE WAVE IS NOT VERY
DEEP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS LOOK
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT IT IS A PRETTY STRONG HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WARM
ADVECTING....CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEXT WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL
CROSS-POLAR FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE FOR SOME LOW MVFR STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING.
* VSBY FALLS TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SUB 1SM
VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT TURN NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS IS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1203 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
1028 AM CST
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS EVEN MORE AS STRATUS WILL REMAIN AT BAY ALL
DAY...AND LIKELY EVEN INTO THE EVENING. 925 TEMPS FROM THE RAP
AND MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
FROM CHICAGO SOUTH...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 OR SO EVEN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL HOLD OFF TILL LATER THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT.
KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CHANCE FOR SOME LOW MVFR STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING.
* VSBY FALLS TO MVFR THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SUB 1SM
VSBY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
* CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT TURN NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
CIGS/VSBY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD IN WITH STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE SOME MELTING OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADDED
TO THE AIR. THERE IS NOT A MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE AND THIS COMPLICATES THE CIG/VSBY FORECAST IN THAT IT
MAY RESULT IN SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS/VSBY OR EVEN LESS
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY STRATUS/LOW VSBY
DEVELOPS WHICH DOES NOT HELP CONFIDENCE BUT GIVEN THAT STRATUS
THAT WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT PROVIDES SOME
SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO DO SO. HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THOUGH THE SNOW PACK WAS MUCH LESS AT THOSE TIMES.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER
CIGS...MAINLY UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES. WILL
CARRY SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER IN THE
LESS CLOUD COVER SCENARIO.
HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH IFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF SUB 1SM VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH -FZDZ POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TURNING
THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH MVFR LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS IS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FALLING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A tightening gradient between high pressure centered over Georgia
and developing low pressure over the Northern Plains is creating
gusty southerly winds across central Illinois this morning. Thanks
to the southerly flow and abundant sunshine, 16z/10am temperatures
have already risen into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Have adjusted
hourly temps this morning to depict a faster rise than previously
forecast. Have also nudged afternoon highs up a couple of degrees
in most areas, generally going a degree or two above 06z MAV
guidance. Resulting temps will range from the middle 40s along/north
of I-74 where deepest snow cover remains to the middle 50s south
of I-70. Forecast update has already been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Southerly winds will continue at the TAF sites through tonight
before an approaching cold front causes winds to veer to the W/NW
by midday Sunday. Skies will initially be clear this afternoon,
then increasing high clouds will be noted tonight. Forecast
soundings suggest the potential for lower clouds along/behind the
frontal boundary on Sunday, although low-level moisture appears to
be way overdone, particularly on the NAM. Will bring a mid-level
cloud deck into the area between 15z and 17z accordingly. One
potential issue with the aviation forecast will be the possibility
of fog later tonight. Once again the high-res models such as the
Rapid Refresh develop widespread dense fog across Iowa and
northern Illinois this evening into tonight. Despite added
moisture due to snow-melt and increasing surface dewpoints, think
this is also overdone. Will instead introduce just a slight visby
reduction at KPIA this evening through 18z Sun...then further
south at the remaining terminals Sunday morning as the boundary
settles southward into the area and winds diminish.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1011 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
321 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS TODAY...FOG/DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWERS 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND PARTS OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS SCATTER
AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM MID TEENS TO MID 20S THRU
DAYBREAK...WHEN TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR JUST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS REMAINED MAINLY PATCHY THUS FAR...BUT
WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG
COVERAGE WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER. AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY HOLD IN THE
MID 30S WHILE PARTS OF THE METRO AREA/DOWNTOWN REACH LOWER 40S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS COULD BE AIDED
BY SOME EARLY SUNSHINE AS THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THUS...JUST
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THIS
LOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. OPTED TO REMOVE RAIN MENTION
AS THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
REGARDING DRIZZLE EITHER. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SO INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMP TRENDS IS ALSO LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. INITIALLY...THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...AS TEMPS HOVER IN
THE MID 30S...UPPER 30S SOUTH. BUT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...PRECIP WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW...
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BUMPED
POPS UP TO LOW END LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP IS INCREASING
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP IS LOW.
WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. CMS
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
321 AM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THEY DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY STARTING THIS EVENING OR EARLY
TONIGHT. IFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. THIN CLOUD COVER
WILL START THE DAY...WITH STEADY WARMING TAKING PLACE. THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT...OR MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 8KT
OR LESS. WITH STEADY FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIR LIFTING OVER THE DEEP
SNOWPACK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG SPREADING TO AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING.
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT...ON THE BACK OF THIS LOW THE GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK. THIS
COULD BE AN IDEAL SCENARIO WITH MELTING SNOWPACK FOR CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS AND DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
FOR TIMING/DURATION OF LOW VSBYS. HAVE OPTED TO TREND VSBYS DOWN
TOWARDS 1SM...BUT COULD SEE THIS BEING MUCH TOO HIGH AND MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE WEATHER...PATCHY DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THAT COULD BECOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH IN STRATUS HOLDING OFF THROUGH MIDDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THIS EVENING...LOW/MEDIUM IN PATCHY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
* HIGH IN IFR STRATUS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
TOO. CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. WINDS TURNING NORTH AND
INCREASING.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE BY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS. MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CST
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THIS
FEATURE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH TO BETWEEN 20-25KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. MEANWHILE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20KT. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY...WHICH COULD
AID IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT DENSE FOG WOULD DEVELOP. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...THEN QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO QUICKLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 30KT. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINDS TO
SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE COVERED IN ICE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL BE A PROBLEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...THEN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE POISED TO
APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1005 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A tightening gradient between high pressure centered over Georgia
and developing low pressure over the Northern Plains is creating
gusty southerly winds across central Illinois this morning. Thanks
to the southerly flow and abundant sunshine, 16z/10am temperatures
have already risen into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Have adjusted
hourly temps this morning to depict a faster rise than previously
forecast. Have also nudged afternoon highs up a couple of degrees
in most areas, generally going a degree or two above 06z MAV
guidance. Resulting temps will range from the middle 40s along/north
of I-74 where deepest snow cover remains to the middle 50s south
of I-70. Forecast update has already been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Focus areas for the short term forecast include fog possibilities
this morning, cloud cover, and possible wind gusts. Fog is not
present, currently, but given the temp/dew point spreads in the north
being from 1-4 degrees, believe some patchy fog is still possible.
So will leave patchy fog in the grids/forecast for this morning
through about 15Z. Satellite loop shows a decent area of cirrus
advecting over parts of the CWA right now. Based on flow being out
of the northwest, thinking is that the cirrus will remain over the
area today and should be mostly scattered, though some spots of
broken are possible. However, the cirrus looks a little thin out
there right now. So, cloud cover over the whole area will remain
mostly sunny. Models differ on wind gust potential across the area
with HRRR showing high gusts, but momentum transfer on BUFKIT shows
no gusts. Believe HRRR is overdoing it right now, so will keep gusts
to around 20mph in the grids. So with thin cirrus and good southerly
winds, afternoon highs should rise to above normal. So, mid 40s over
the deeper snow pack, to mid 50s in the south continues to look like
a good forecast, and made few changes here.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Upper wave currently coming onto the Oregon coast to start digging
tonight as it emerges from the Rockies, swinging through Illinois
Sunday evening. Low pressure riding along the warm front currently
to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward
across the forecast area on Sunday. Forecast soundings showing
rather shallow moisture over the area later tonight, mainly below
900 mb, but some weak isentropic lift may be enough to squeeze out
some patchy drizzle after midnight. Have maintained the mention of
some fog across the northern CWA as well, in areas where the wind
will be lighter as the frontal boundary approaches. On Sunday, PoP`s
remain low in the morning, then increase again in the afternoon as
the wave arrives. Have kept the highest rain chances across the
northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. Temperature-wise, a
mild night on tap with the clouds and southerly flow in place, and
went a few degrees above the MOS guidance with 30s/40s prevailing.
On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in
the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA
where there will still be a decent snow cover.
Remainder of the week looking quiet at the moment. Quick shot of
cooler air on Monday will be moderating as upper ridging over the
Rockies breaks down. The longer range models have generally been
focusing more of the mid week energy to our north, but the latest
ECMWF does bring some light precipitation as far south as central
Illinois early Wednesday morning ahead of the next Arctic blast
emerging from Canada. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate somewhat of a
glancing blow in our area, with 850 mb temperatures of -15 to -18C
by early Thursday, with highs across the north likely to remain in
the teens and lows in the single digits. Some moderation expected on
Friday. Another surge of colder air expected next weekend, with
similar questions as to how much of it catches us on the way
southeast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
High cirrus will continue to effect all sites next 24hrs, either
scattered or broken, resulting in continued VFR conditions. With
dewpoint spreads being small in the PIA and BMI areas, will be
including a TEMPO group for light fog for couple of hours this
morning. Models continuing to forecast low stratus and fog
tomorrow evening. However, believe models are overdoing the low
level moisture a little. So will not be putting low stratus or fog
in the TAFs. Will not be adding drizzle either since there will
not be any low clouds to produce it in the TAFs. Winds will be
south- southwest through most of the period with wind speeds
around 12-15kts. Models do seem to show LLWS so will be adding
this starting in the evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
207 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED FOR ALL SITES
LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. NOW WATCHING FOR ALL-TIME
FEBRUARY RECORDS (ALSO LISTED BELOW) TO BE TIED OR BROKE. NONE OF
WHICH HAVE OCCURRED THIS EARLY IN FEBRUARY. OTHERWISE...HAD TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS...TWEAK TEMPS AND ADJUST WINDS FOR A FEW SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
OVERALL...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WEDNESDAY IS THE ONLY DAY TO WATCH FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND CLOUD
COVER INVADES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WARM/DRY WEATHER PERSISTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD NOT APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 TO NEAR 80). WARMEST
TEMPERATURES FORECAST MONDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORCES WARMEST
AIR SOUTH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE STRATUS MOVES INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST MAY AID IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM IS OBVIOUSLY
HINDERED BY SNOW FIELD/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISSUES AND THIS IS WHY
THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IS SO BULLISH WITH STRATUS. AS FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...MONDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE DELAYED ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER SO WILL NEED TO WATCH RH/WINDS CAREFULLY IN
UPCOMING FORECAST RUNS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HAPPENS...COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREAD IN...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AND STRATUS MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
CONTAIN TWO LOBES OF ENERGY...THE FIRST MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TO THE NORTH AND THE SECOND SLIDES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. A LACK IN STRONG FORCING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FEEL PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONFINED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. DO HAVE A LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FORECAST IN EAST
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THE PERSISTENT 500MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ONCE AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS TIME SO THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR COLD FRONTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES SLIDING IN. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED...WE COULD EASILY OBSERVE ANOTHER
EXTENDED STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
APPROACH RECORD LIMITS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
20KTS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD 7KTS FROM 00Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KTS...MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 12KTS WITHOUT THE
GUSTS. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12KTS AROUND 23Z. THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE WEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS DEVELOP
BY 04Z THEN START TO GUST AROUND 25KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM 06Z-12Z. AROUND 13Z SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS
EXPECTED AND BY 17Z GUST CLOSE TO 25KTS AS AFTERNOON HEATING
ENHANCES MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-
014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1245 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED FOR ALL SITES
LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. NOW WATCHING FOR ALL-TIME
FEBRUARY RECORDS (ALSO LISTED BELOW) TO BE TIED OR BROKE. NONE OF
WHICH HAVE OCCURRED THIS EARLY IN FEBRUARY. OTHERWISE...HAD TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS...TWEAK TEMPS AND ADJUST WINDS FOR A FEW SITES
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
20KTS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD 7KTS FROM 00Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KTS...MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 12KTS WITHOUT THE
GUSTS. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12KTS AROUND 23Z. THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE WEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS DEVELOP
BY 04Z THEN START TO GUST AROUND 25KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM 06Z-12Z. AROUND 13Z SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS
EXPECTED AND BY 17Z GUST CLOSE TO 25KTS AS AFTERNOON HEATING
ENHANCES MIXING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-
014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1134 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Record high temperatures are still on track later today as the
pattern aloft continues to support warm downslope flow off the
eastern Rockies. A weak trough will track across the plains today,
which will help push that warm air over eastern KS. Soundings
indicate that daytime mixing will reach about 925 mb, with the
exception of the snow covered areas along the NE state line. An
analysis of the 925 mb temperatures show that the thermal axis is
forecast to focus somewhere over I-70 and the NE state line.
Cooler temperatures will again reside across southeastern KS
similar to yesterday where highs were over estimated. The RAP is
the most aggressive with daytime mixing reaching a height of 900
mb, but this is common with this model making it sort of the upper
bound. Mixing those temperatures down to the surface would mean
highs in the mid to upper 70s, so it seems reasonable that this
will be unlikely. Therefore have went with highs in the low to mid
70s along I-70, near 60 over the snow covered areas, and upper 60s
in southeast KS. The record for Topeka is 71 set in 2009 and
Concordia is 69 set in 1990, while the forecast for both is 72.
Winds will not be as high as yesterday with the exception of
southeast KS with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Warm and dry conditions
again will cause high to very high fire danger for the southwest
half of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
Next upper shortwave trof and associated front pass over the
eastern part of the state early Sunday morning, bringing breezy
northwest winds along with it. Temperatures behind this wave are
rather mild and still anticipate will mix into the 50s northeast
to lower/middle 60s south and west. The breezy conditions combined
with relatively warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s will
bring very high fire danger back into the area mainly west and
south of Manhattan on Sunday afternoon.
The surface high moves south and to our east into Sunday night and
Monday, keeping lows mixed into the 30s and bring easterly winds
and somewhat cooler highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday.
Zonal flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface bring highs
back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, before the next
cold front comes southward across the Central Plains early
Wednesday. After lows in the 30s, if the front comes in early
won`t expect much of a warm up but into the 40s and temperatures
may then fall again through the day as the cooler air comes south.
Have backed off again on precipitation chances as little moisture
has a chance to reestablish itself before the colder dry air mass
returns. Lows cool back into the teens and 30s overnight. Thursday
would remain colder in the 30s as cold high continues to be pushed
southward by northerly flow aloft. May get some recovery back into
the 40s into Friday if colder air can be moved eastward and
thermal axis ahead of the next front gets a chance to mix down
some warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hrs. The biggest
concern aviation wise will be the wind shift to a more westerly
direction about mid-way through the forecast period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.
WITH A VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE MAIN ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON RFW.
THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY
ORIENTATION TODAY...SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND
BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. GFS/ECMWF
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...AND BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 1000KFT
WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CAA OVER THE
CWA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING. NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET
CAUGHT UP IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHILE CUTOFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE SW REGION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE SPLIT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WITH OUT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEEING SL CHANCE FOR -RW/-SW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUTOFF DRIFTING SW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ACCOMPANIES THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A ROUND OF
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH INTO AREA BEHIND EXITING FRONT WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS FOR WED/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMUP OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL LAST GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUES/THURS/FRI...AND 40S FOR
WEDNESDAY(EARLY HIGHS) AND NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
20KTS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DROPPING
TOWARD 7KTS FROM 00Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KTS...MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME WHERE WINDS ARE AROUND 12KTS WITHOUT THE
GUSTS. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12KTS AROUND 23Z. THIS
WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE WEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS DEVELOP
BY 04Z THEN START TO GUST AROUND 25KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM 06Z-12Z. AROUND 13Z SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13KTS
EXPECTED AND BY 17Z GUST CLOSE TO 25KTS AS AFTERNOON HEATING
ENHANCES MIXING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN NW KANSAS FROM SAINT FRANCIS TO
COLBY TO HILL CITY AND NORTH. THROUGH RH MAY BE MARGINAL IN PARTS
OF THESE COUNTIES...CONSIDERING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHERN PARTS OF LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...TD VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SO RFW CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT DAY. THERE
COULD BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 7)...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-
014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
A QUIET START TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS LENDS ONE TO BELIEVE
WE WON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS SOME FOG FORMING OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CLOUD
COVER HAS HELPED HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP AT LEAST A LITTLE...SO
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL...AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SEE SOME SPILL OVER OF THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA...SO FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF SOME IN DEVELOPING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE COMMONLY
OVER ZEALOUS NAM EVEN INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE MORE SUN EXPECTED...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT HEADING IN TO TONIGHT WHICH
CAUSES SOME CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES A TEMPERATURE OF +14C AT 850MB THIS AFTERNOON AT MSP. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL A LOT TO BE SORTED OUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIP WITH THIS ONE...BUT THE GFS AND EC INDICATE THIS
WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION...AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES EAST OF US. THE 00Z NAM LOOKED
FLAT OUT SCARY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS IT INDICATED 0.20" TO 0.30"
OF LIQUID IN SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FREEZING
RAIN. DID NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION GIVEN IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN TERMS
OF THE WAVE STRENGTH AND HOW DEEPLY IT HAD AMPLIFIED THE WAVE VS.
THE FLATTER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/EC/UKMET/GEM. THE 06Z NAM RUN
JUST ARRIVED AND IT BACKED WAY OFF ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
BOUNCED THE HEAVIEST FURTHER NORTH. STILL STEERING CLEAR OF BUYING
INTO THE NAM FOR NOW. SO...BY TOMORROW MORNING...WE`LL HAVE A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR TO DEAL WITH...AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS A WIDE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS EXPLAINS
WHY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE DAY
GOES ON DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT FINALLY COOLING THAT
WARM LAYER BELOW FREEZING. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS...THE ODDS OF
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN OUR FA AREA INCREASING...BUT MUCH STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
UPR LVL RIDGING UNDERWAY OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN NIGHT WILL SPREAD
EWD MON WHILE SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY PASSES THRU THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE MILD
TEMPS EXPERIENCED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WARMER
AIR WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN P-TYPE EXPECTED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW MON. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL WEAKEN ACRS THE ROCKIES THEN PICK UP STEAM ONCE IT MOVES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HEIGHTENED ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW IN ADDITION TO ITS RESERVOIR OF PAC MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT ALONG WITH IT WILL INCRS PRECIP CHCS FOR MON NIGHT
THRU TUE NIGHT. THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESSION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON
NIGHT. THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE CWFA WILL BE SUBJECT TO A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES AGAIN DEPICT
WARMER AIR WITHIN THE BLYR TO VARYING DEPTHS FROM N TO S OVER THE
CWFA. THERE ARE DISCERNIBLE SHTWV TROF AXES ON THE GFS/EC...AND
THIS WOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THE PRECIP. A VARIETY
OF FZDZ/IP/SN CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY SN FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE WFO MPX CWFA AND THE FZDZ/IP... POSSIBLY EVEN LIQUID RAIN IF
SFC TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH...CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER. THE NAM LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL BASED ON ITS DEPICTION OF EVENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND HOW IT DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER THE DAKOTAS MON-TUE SO AM
DISCOUNTING IT THE MOST...MEANING THAT JUST UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LUMBERING
HIGH PRES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE ERN CONUS UPR
LVL TROF...SPREADING SLIGHTLY WWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING PIECES OF A COLD POOL OF AIR OVER ERN CANADA INTO
THIS REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST WITH THE DROP IN
TEMPS...NO ORGANIZED WX SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MVFR VISBYS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LATER THIS EVENING
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...SO EXPECTED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. EARLY MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEPER SATURATION WITH RISING AIR...SO SHOULD SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...SO COULD
SEE A FZRA/PL AT THE ONSET...BUT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO SN/PL...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SN.
KMSP...
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND PTYPE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS LAID OUT IN THE TAFS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FOR ACCUMULATION...WITH TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ONLY
AROUND A FEW HUNDRETHS. THE LOWER VISBYS WILL BE COMBINATION OF
PRECIP AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS BCMG SE AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH -FZRA/PL/-SN LIKELY. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15G20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM ACROSS ERN SD AND THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT THE SFC LOW WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER PACIFIC
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP AROUND
ONEILL. WINDS BELOW 700MB GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG UP TO 50 KTS
SUGGESTING A SHALLOW INVERSION FOR LOWS MOSTLY AROUND 40...30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO MID 70S. THE PLACE TO WATCH IS NRN NEB WHERE SNOW COVER IS
NEARLY ABSENT AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND ARW EAST ARE
PLUGGING 70S FOR HIGHS. A CHECK ON CIRRUS THIS INDICATES SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. THE BANK OF NEARLY SOLID CIRRUS ACROSS ERN MT AND WY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SO NEARLY FULL SUN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD INDICATE A DRY WEEK AHEAD.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL TREND COOLER BY MID WEEK THOUGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND
PUSH EAST OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PUSH SOME OF THE WARMER AIR
/850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C OR GREATER/ BACK SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING INTO DETAILS A BIT MORE...A FAIRLY POTENT PV ANOMALY HEADS
OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES NEBRASKA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY. CROSS SECTIONS WOULD REVEAL THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB.
ALSO...THE LIFT /WHICH IS WEAK AS CAN BE DISCERNED FROM THE UPPER
JET AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA/ IS NOT IN THAT SAME
LAYER SO HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH MODELS
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 4C TO 10C BY 00Z MONDAY AS
COMPARED TO 12C TO 18C AS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON SUNDAY SO THIS SHOULD HELP THE MIXING FACTOR...AND EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THINK HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID
60S LOOK APPROPRIATE. SLIGHTLY CONCERNED HOW MUCH/IF ANY INFLUENCE
THERE WILL STILL BE FROM SNOW COVER BY SUNDAY AFTER A VERY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. DID KEEP A BIT OF THAT INFLUENCE IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE...BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THAN WAS OBSERVED
FRIDAY OR IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF
FAIRLY WELL OVERNIGHT...YET STAYING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
VALLEYS WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO
THE SOUTH. LOOKING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. USED MUCH LESS INFLUENCE FROM SNOW
COVER BY MONDAY AS TWO 50-70 DEGREE DAYS SHOULD MELT ALL OF THE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER
THE RIDGE SERVES TO FLATTEN IT AND FOR THE MOST PART RECEDES IT TO
THE WEST LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW RATHER THAN
SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SPAN OF DAYS
WITH BACK AND FORTH TEMPERATURES WITH SOME COOLER DAYS AND SOME
WARMER. WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SITUATED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE COLDER AIRMASS IS SHUNTED EAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPLITTING ENERGY...WITH ONE PIECE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT IS NOT
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN STAYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AS THE PRIOR MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS WILL
KEEP IT FROM INFLUENCING THE MAIN FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE THE WIND. WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
THE RAP AND ARW EAST SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS WHICH CAPTURE THE
SPIRIT OF THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...17 PERCENT RH AT CHEYENNE AT 2 AM CST. THESE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING CRITICAL WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SWRN NEB THIS AFTN. AS SUGGESTED BY SPC...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN
AND LOESS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA FROM 03 UTC THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND
ECMWF...18 UTC NAM AND 18-20 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF
2120 UTC CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE A TRANSITION THROUGH A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST THROUGH LAKE SAKAKAWEA IS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH IS GREATEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM BUFR AND 18-20 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING WITH 21 UTC TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MUCH OF THE NIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL TO LIMIT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
WILL ALLOW FURTHER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
THE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM INVOLVES PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY SHOULD KEEP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING QUIET.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP AND
EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BRING WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING THIS
TIME SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE STATE...AND MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE JAMES VALLEY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL.
LOOKING AT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS WHEN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN...AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY MAINLY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FREEZING RAIN THREAT SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER MONDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK AND
KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT
KMOT...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ABOVE PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR NDZ009-010-017>021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES. FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH IN HOW FAST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TO NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 907 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND THE 12 UTC NAM HAVE COME IN WITH HEAVIER
QPF AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND WRF-ARW AND NMM.
THESE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS LEAD TO GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEING
PARSED OUT ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE REMAINDER OF
THE 12 UTC PACKAGE CONVERGES ON THIS SCENARIO...A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER. FOR MORNING UPDATE
TRIED TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF A
WINTRY MIX APPROACHING THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND SCOOTING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM MINOT EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOW MEANDERING FROM GLASGOW TO DICKINSON AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
LOCAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SLATED TO APPROACH THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO AGITATE THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
EMERGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION FROM A 100KT JET
OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM GLASGOW MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DECENT LIFT IN THE 850-300MB OMEGA LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH THE MAX WETBULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SUGGEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO
OAKES...AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINOR
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AROUND MID-
DAY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THIS SHOULD ONLY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND.
ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE DAY AS RIDGE PASSES
OVER BEFORE ROUND OF POTENT SHORT WAVES APPROACH BY LATE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE SCENARIO EXPECTED AS PAST FEW DAYS
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST...COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING WAVE...SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SO FREEZING
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBLE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH SECONDARY WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH ALONG WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE
REALIZED IN THE MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIRMASS WORKS IN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN
END TO THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST ECMWF IS
SIGNALING A STRONGER WAVE AND HIGHER QPF VALUES WHILE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM ALONG. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE NEXT FEW RUNS
GO.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
IFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR KDIK
AND KBIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THIS WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT KDIK...LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN/KBIS...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT...AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KJMS. IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ABOVE
PRECIPITATION TYPES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1145 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES WITH THIS MIDDAY UPDATE INCLUDE DECREASING THE CLOUD
COVER...INCREASING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...AND REMOVING ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE
THINNING OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE SUN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LACK OF ANY LOW CLOUD ACROSS NW
PA HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP TODAY WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS JUST
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS STARTING OFF THE DAY OVERHEAD
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS NE OH/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH TIGHTENS UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND
STRATUS WILL FILL IN IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NW
OHIO...EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON SUNDAY AS TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MERGE
OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH ENDS UP PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. CAN NOT
ENTIRELY RULE THAT OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 40S SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE SNOWPACK START TO SHRINK BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO MELT ENTIRELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MANY AREAS STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNOWPACK
IN THESE AREAS LIKELY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER(POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 2 INCHES IN NW PA). ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WATER WILL BE
RELEASED...ITS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF IT WILL JUST REMAIN IN THE
SNOWPACK WITH ANOTHER .25-.45 ADDED TO IT. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT A TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS MUCH COOLER AIR IS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN NE OH/NW PA AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHEAST IF LOW LEVELS COOL BEFORE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT CAN. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THERMAL PROFILES AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO NARROW IN ON A SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN HOLD NEARLY
STEADY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GETTING COLD AGAIN BUT NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE IS
GOOD BUT THE QPF AREA IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE LAKE...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS HAS A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...WHICH SEEMS BETTER. SO EXPANDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT
IT ALL DAY...IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE MAY BE ABLE TO LIMIT IT TO THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AT LEAST -20C. THE
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWEST AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE.
THIS DIRECTION USUALLY ISN`T REAL GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT PARTS
OF INLAND NW PA...HOWEVER...IF A FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND
OR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL HELP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED TO CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE DRY. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN NW
OHIO UNTIL THE TREND IS CLEARER.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME STRATOCUMLUS FLOATING AROUND THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
EAST AND THEN JUST WAITING FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY LOW
CLOUDS...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOP IT OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND THEN MOVES IT NORTH. THIS EVENING SOME DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AND BY LATE TONIGHT LLWS MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
NON VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
MICHIGAN THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. HIGHS TODAY
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHAT TYPE
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED MUCH WARMER
DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...
850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 2-2.5 ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS OF 8-11C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER 15-20C
READINGS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WARM AIR WAS
ALSO QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-50 PERCENT
BETWEEN 925-500MB FROM THE FORECAST AREA WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS EXCLUDING NORTH DAKOTA. AS SUCH...MOST CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO JUST CIRRUS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR
AND STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. SOME BR HAS FORMED OVER THE SNOW PACK
DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY EAST. SURFACE PATTERN DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIERRE SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO GREEN BAY WI.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND THEN
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FORECAST TO REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ITS GOING TO BE HARD TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE LATE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MOVE IN...MAINLY
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE ALSO SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE AS COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR OVER NORTH DAKOTA
BEGINS TO FLOW IN.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE REAL STRUGGLE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
THOUGH. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW PACK...HIGHS TODAY COULD EASILY
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED IN THE 10-14C RANGE...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND JUST SOME CIRRUS
AROUND. HOWEVER...THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN RIVER
VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE LOWER ALBEDO FROM MORE
TREES PRESENT SHOULD ALLOWS HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE
REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL...BOTH OF WHICH TEND TO PERFORM WELL IN
ANAMOLOUSLY WARM SITUATIONS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...AND WITH MAINLY CIRRUS IN THE EVENING
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TANK
TOWARDS DEWPOINTS THAT ARE IN THE 20S. THUS...BELOW FREEZING SEEM
REASONABLE. SOME BR IS LIKELY AGAIN DUE TO THE RELEASE OF SNOW PACK
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING DEWPOINTS.
NOW KNOWING THE LOWS TONIGHT...WE CAN DISCUSS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. DRY WARMER AIR
LINGERING ALOFT...ABOVE 4C...SUGGESTS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIQUID. GIVEN THE LOWS...THAT BRINGS UP THE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION IN
THE FIRST PLACE...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2025
HIGHLIGHTS / CONCERNS...
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEED SUNDAY MORNING?
2. CLOUDS/TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
4. MONITORING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING
THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO NEBRASKA AT 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS TO PASS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI. THUS...THE BULK
OF THE DPVA FORCING LOOKS TO MISS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH COOLING/MOISTENING LOW LEVELS UNDER A
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEAK OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 07.00Z GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP SOME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE THE STRONGEST CONSENSUS EXISTS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. A WARM LAYER ALOFT FEATURING 3C OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLS THROUGH THE MORNING...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORTIVE COOLING. SO A TRANSITION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO COLDER AIR BELOW
0C...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SHUT OFF. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-
90...IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS SHOULD PLAGUE THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A NORTH WIND DRAGGING COLDER AIR
IN...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHICH THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS TO BE STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. GIVEN COLDER 925MB TEMPS OF -8 TO
-12C ON MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COLDER ON
MONDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP OFF QUITE A BIT MONDAY EVENING IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT AS EXPECTED...BEFORE CLIMBING WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST COMING OUT OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND TODAY...THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DPVA FORCING SEEMS TO BE HEADING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 07.00Z GFS. STILL HAVE CARRIED
BROADBRUSH 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...HIGHEST ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS AS WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TOO ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING.
ANOTHER ARCTIC COOL SHOT REMAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. 925MB TEMPS COOL TO AT LEAST -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THU FROM THE
07.00Z ECMWF...AND POSSIBLY COLDER IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT ON THE FLIP
SIDE KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN. ITS POSSIBLE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS
SCENARIO. GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY WITH
MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN. VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO DRY AIR PROVIDED BY THE
ARCTIC COOL SHOT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD SHOT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY / VALENTINES DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015
CHALLENGING-DIFFICULT CLOUD AND VSBY FORECAST AS ANOTHER DAY OF
MELTING SNOW PACK IS WORKING ON SATURATING THE NEAR SFC BOUNDARY
LAYER. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTINUED TO CLIMB AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
VRB TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF
KRST/KLSE. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT HOW THICK AND WHAT WILL OCCUR AFTER THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH IS NOT CERTAIN. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUB 1SM SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK DEVELOPING STRATUS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
POOLING MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION. THEY DEPICTED THE SAME THING
YESTERDAY...WHICH DID NOT OCCUR...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING CHANGES
THE SCENARIO. MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
REGARDLESS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. EXPECT SOME AREAS
OF PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD BE A WINTRY MIXED BAG AS ITS
NOT CERTAIN THAT ICE WILL BE IN THE CLOUD ALL THE TIME...AND WHAT
SFC TEMPS WILL BE WHEN IT FALLS. AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH
WHATEVER FALLS...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN/FREEZING
PCPN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL LOWER VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND HOLD OFF ON
BRINGING THE STRATUS IN UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING...BANKING ON THE
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE OTHER SCENARIO
OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP LOWER-MORE
QUICKLY. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
258 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHOW THE HIGH WIND EVENT IS
A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS AROUND
CONVERSE COUNTY...AND PLATTE COUNTY HAVE BEEN AROUND 85 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN DOUGLAS HAS SEEN GUSTS JUST UNDER 80 MPH AN HOUR
OR SO AGO. BELIEVE THESE WINDS ARE PARTIALLY DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS BL MIXING. CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS LOOK
GOOD AND ARE ON TRACK. ADDED NIOBRARA COUNTY TO THE WARNING WITH
LUSK GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH...AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAWLINS AND LARAMIE ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE WARNING OUT FOR
NOW SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH THE HOURLY 40 MPH CRITERIA
SHORTLY.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE
WARNING IS GOOD FOR 8 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW
ZONES DEPENDING ON TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE HRRR HAS VERIFIED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWS GUSTS LOWERING BELOW 45 MPH BETWEEN 7 TO 9
PM. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS INCREASE FOR A BRIEF
TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASING LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. MODELS INDICATE SOME RAIN
AND SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN THE
EVENING AND DURING MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POP UP TO 60 PERCENT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY EXPECTED RAIN ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A WEAK MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. H7-H3 MOISTURE PROGS FROM MOST MODELS ARE MOST
FAVORABLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WILL BE LOWER OVER THE PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN BELOW 8K FEET AGL. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS ESTABLISHES
A REX BLOCK AS A CLOSED LOW DRIFTS WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SAT BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE HARD
TO COME BY IN THIS PATTERN...SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR PCPN
INTO THE WEEKEND. H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2 TO 0 C WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND
HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101>107-109-
110-115>118.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...HAMMER
FIRE WEATHER...TJT