Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/06/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1017 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 749 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND INCREASE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS TO REFRESH FRONT END METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY. MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY ...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT. FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT WARMER THAN ON FRI. LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. KCOS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL. CIGS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 1000 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER MONUMENT HILL AND WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHEASTERLY AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. KPUB...EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. MODELS KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION BANKED ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OUTSIDE THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOZLEY && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058- 060. && $$ UPDATE...28 AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
750 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 749 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND INCREASE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS TO REFRESH FRONT END METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY. MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY ...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT. FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT WARMER THAN ON FRI. LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 FOR KCOS AND KPUB...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS(ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KCOS TAF SITE). IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT BOTH THE KCOS AND THE KPUB TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TONIGHT. KALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058- 060. && $$ UPDATE...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
738 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 729 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND INCREASE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS TO REFRESH FRONT END METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY. MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY ...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT. FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT WARMER THAN ON FRI. LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 FOR KCOS AND KPUB...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS(ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KCOS TAF SITE). IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT BOTH THE KCOS AND THE KPUB TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TONIGHT. KALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058- 060. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
500 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY. MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY ...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT. FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT WARMER THAN ON FRI. LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD. HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE MTN AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 FOR KCOS AND KPUB...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS(ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KCOS TAF SITE). IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT BOTH THE KCOS AND THE KPUB TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TONIGHT. KALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058- 060. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
358 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING... ...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE... CURRENTLY... LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AND WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM SFC TO CIG EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO TO NRN TX. ANALYSIS FURTHER SHOWS SEVERAL MID LVL VORT CELLS AHEAD OF THE TROF AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF OMEGA LIFT THRU THE H85-H30 LYR. DEEP LYR MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH H85-H30 MEAN RH VALUES INCREASING FROM ARND 60PCT OVER THE ERN GOMEX TO AOA 90PCT BTWN SRN LA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LIFTING/ZONAL H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC A BROAD SFC LOW HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF COAST. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED A BROAD SFC LOW TO FORM OVER THE WRN GOMEX ALONG A MID LVL THETA-E BNDRY (THE REMNANTS OF THE MONDAY FROPA) THAT EXTENDS EWD THRU THE FL STRAITS ACRS THE NRN BAHAMAS. OVERHEAD...A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE WX PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND THE DEEP SOUTH WITH AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE TX COAST. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE ACRS THE FL PENINSULA...KMFL/KEYW MEASURING THE HIGHEST WITH PWATS ARND 1.3"... DECREASING TO 0.7" AT KTBW...THEN TO 0.5" AT KXMR/KJAX/KTAE. THE CENTRAL/NRN RAOBS ALL SHOW A DEEP MID/UPR LVL SATURATION LYR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BTWN THE H90-H60 LYR. TODAY-TONIGHT... ALL MAJOR ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...A CLASSIC "TOP-DOWN" MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GOMEX IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR GRADUAL DEEPENING WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GOMEX BY 00Z TONIGHT. MID LVL WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE SW...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE TIMING/ONSET OF THE PRECIP. WITH THE H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND A LIFTING/ZONAL JET ALOFT OVER THE GULF REGION...THE ADVANCE OF THE DVLPG GOMEX LOW WILL BE IMPEDED. A 110KT JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF THE PAC NW WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY TROF TO SWING DOWN OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS LATER TODAY... WHICH WILL PICK UP AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE SRN SHORT WAVE... GIVING IT THE NECESSARY PUNCH TO PUSH THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE WRN ATLC TO ALLOW THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GOMEX TO PUSH ACRS CENTRAL FL...BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFT SUNSET. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU EARLY AFTN...GRADUALLY STEPPING UP PRECIP CHANCES AFT 18Z FROM N TO S. NO MENTIONABLE POPS S OF BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL AFT 00Z...BUT BCMG LIKELY/DEFINITIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD. SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E/SE THRU THE DAY...THOUGH ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO ALONG AND N OF I-4 (U60S/L70S) AND WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF AVG TO THE S (M70S). ONSHORE FLOW DVLPG BY MIDDAY WILL PUSH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE M/U50S...KEEPING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U50S ALONG AN N OF I-4...L/M60S TO THE S...ABOUT 8-10F DEG ABV AVG. WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ANTICIPATED DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. EVEN SO...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO DVLP WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF 0-3KM HELICITY AFT 00Z (BTWN 200-250) WHICH WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED TSTM GUST POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...FROPA WILL BE SLOW AS IT PLOWS INTO THE ATLC RIDGE...A SOLID 12-18HR RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED. QPF NEAR 1.0" AREAWIDE...LCL AMOUNTS ABV 2.0" PSBL. THU...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE EAST OF THE CAPE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING SE AND THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL INTO THE LATE AFTN HOURS. HEALTHY DEEP LAYER LIFT EARLY WITH REGION UNDER THE RR QUAD OF THE MID ATLC UPPER JET AND UPR DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL ALLOW KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS EARLY BEFORE FRONT PULLS SE BY AFTN. STRONGER STORM CHANCES APPEAR CONFINED TO FAR SRN SECTIONS IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONT PULLS THROUGH THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK WITH POPS FROM 60-70 PCT LAKE COUNTY TO 80 PCT ACROSS N CSTL AND SRN SECTIONS WILL EXIT QUICKLY SE INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT LWR-MID 70S SRN AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. THU NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS UP IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH AND MAINLY 50S SOUTH...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST. NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP A LOW LATE NIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ALONG THE SRN TREASURE COAST. FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE CAROLINAS WITH NNE WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FAR NORTH AND N CSTL SECTIONS AND LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE ST LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTY COAST. SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SE BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MARINE STRATOCU TO PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL WARM INTO THE LWR-MID 70S BY SUNDAY. MON-WED...ANOTHER DIGGING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SE STATES MONDAY WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE SE ATLC COAST AND MID ATLC INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND THE DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S WILL COOL INTO THE 60S FOR TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION... SFC WNDS: THRU 04/14Z...W OF KVRB-KOBE N/NE ARND 4KTS...E OF KVRB-KOBE VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 04/14Z-04/16Z...BCMG E/NE 7-10KTS... CONTG THRU 05/03Z. BTWN 05/03Z-05/06Z...BCMG S/SE 4-7KTS. AFT 05/06Z...N OF KISM-KTIX BCMG W/NW 8-12KTS...S OF KISM-KTIX S/SE 8-12KTS. VSBYS/WX: THRU 04/18Z VFR. BTWN 04/18Z-04/21Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS N OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN 04/21Z-04/24Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS N OF KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS VCNTY KMLB. BTWN 05/00Z-05/06Z... MVFR SHRAS BCMG LIKELY N OF I-4 WITH SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS...CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS S OF I-4. AFT 05/06Z...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS WITH AREAS IFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR TSRAS ALL SITES. CIGS: THRU 04/18Z...VFR ALL SITES...PREVAILING AOA FL120 WITH PDS BTWN FL040-060...MAINLY N OF OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN 04/18Z-04/24Z... PREVAILING FL040-060...PDS BTWN FL020-030 N OF I-4. BTWN 05/00Z-05/06Z...N OF I-4 PREVAILING FL010-020 WITH PDS BLO FL010...S OF I-4 BTWN FL030-050. AFT 05/06Z...N OF KMLB-KLAL PREVAILING BLO FL010 WITH PDS BLO FL006...S OF KMLB-KLAL PREVAILING FL020-030 WITH OCNL FL010-020. && .MARINE... TODAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/NRN GOMEX WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE ERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE...MAINLY DUE TO AN ERLY SWELL. DOMINANT PDS ARND 8SEC. CHC SHRAS AFT MIDDAY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. TONIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE PAST MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE PREDAWN HRS AS A SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCD WARM FRONT PUSH ACRS CENTRAL FL. N OF CAPE CANAVERAL...SFC WINDS BCMG A MODERATE TO FRESH W/NW BREEZE...S OF THE CAPE A MODERATE TO FRESH S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE AS MAX WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 18KTS...WHILE THE SRLY COMPONENT S OF THE CAPE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE LCL ATLC IN THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. DOMINANT PDS WILL DIMINISH TO 6-7SEC. WIDESPREAD SHRAS WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. SFC WND G35KTS PSBL IN TSRAS. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO FRIDAY AS N/NE WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED WITH WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY AS FLOW VEERS TO THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED EARLY ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY AND DECREASING SEAS WILL MAKE FOR IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY NORTHERLY EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON BUT RECENT RAIN EARLIER THAT DAY WILL MITIGATE THE CONCERN FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RHS DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR FRI AFTERNOON WITH WINDS FROM THE NE 10-15 MPH. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 58 64 49 / 40 100 80 10 MCO 72 60 69 49 / 30 100 70 10 MLB 72 63 68 56 / 20 100 80 10 VRB 74 64 72 58 / 10 80 80 10 LEE 69 57 67 47 / 40 100 60 0 SFB 69 58 66 47 / 30 100 70 10 ORL 71 59 68 49 / 30 100 70 10 FPR 74 64 73 58 / 10 80 80 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
901 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE...640 PM CST WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/. WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 319 PM CST THROUGH SATURDAY... PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. KMD && .LONG TERM... 319 PM CST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON THE TAIL END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO INCREASE UP AROUND 40-45 KT LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 1200-1700 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS AS WELL...IT APPEARS THE GOING MENTION OF LLWS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET...SO I WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * MEDIUM FOR LLWS. * HIGH FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE. SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS. MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE. MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. KJB && .MARINE... 200 PM CST IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WERE HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAIRLY QUICK RAMP-UP IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN JUST AS QUICKLY BY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO AROUND 15 KT OR SO BY SUNRISE. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK FRIDAY AS THE TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT... THEY WILL SWING AROUND IN DIRECTION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING PROPEL THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS LOW PASSES EAST LATE SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WHILE WEAKENING AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LINGER DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
642 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE... 640 PM CST WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/. WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 319 PM CST THROUGH SATURDAY... PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. KMD && .LONG TERM... 319 PM CST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON THE TAIL END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO INCREASE UP AROUND 40-45 KT LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 1200-1700 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS AS WELL...IT APPEARS THE GOING MENTION OF LLWS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET...SO I WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * MEDIUM FOR LLWS. * HIGH FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE. SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS. MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE. MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. KJB && .MARINE... 200 PM CST IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WERE HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAIRLY QUICK RAMP-UP IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN JUST AS QUICKLY BY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO AROUND 15 KT OR SO BY SUNRISE. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK FRIDAY AS THE TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT... THEY WILL SWING AROUND IN DIRECTION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING PROPEL THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS LOW PASSES EAST LATE SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WHILE WEAKENING AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LINGER DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
627 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 615 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS... WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST WILL SEE GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP SO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING WARM AND JUST A FEW DEGREES UNDER AFTERNOON TEMPS. ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. HIRES RUC AND HRRR SURFACE TEMPS EVEN COLDER WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z WITH RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY BUT OFTEN THESE HIRES MODELS CAN BE ON THE EXTREME SIDE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE TEENS LATER TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO STILL LIMIT REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SOMEWHAT. MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LIKELY INTO THE 20S. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 FLATTER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH POLAR JET AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPS AND OVERALL FEEL WILL LIKELY TO BE PLAGUED BY LOW STRATUS (ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST) AS WAA ALOFT AND SNOW MELT HELPS LOCK IN MOISTURE WITHIN SHALLOW INVERSION. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN APPEAR LOW THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF MORE FOCUSED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP NORTH OF THE IWX CWA. HOWEVER...ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SHALLOW/MOIST NEAR SFC LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT ICING FAR NE IN/FAR NW OH/LOWER MI INTO SUNDAY). A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO FORCE A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE (AGAIN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA ENSUES WITHIN PIVOTING DEFORMATION. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY POPS GIVEN LINGERING MODEL SPREAD AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...COOLER/DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RENEWED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 615 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG THROUGH. STRENGTHENING WAA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH MOVES EAST MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING... WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY AS A WK SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE W-NW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1123 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 832 PM... ISSUED AT 434 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO REFINE POPS TO ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE ENDING RAPIDLY AS IT HAS DONE UPSTREAM IN NORTHEAST IOWA THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE...MINOR HOURLY TEMP UPDATES THROUGH ROUTINE PROCEDURES SENT. NO CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT SNOWS ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD 12Z. ERVIN && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAVE A BAND OF WAA SNOW FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF K9V9 WITH A WARM FRONT RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WEAK TROFS WERE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST. A NARROW TONGUE OF 30 DEGREE DEW POINTS RAN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SAID TRENDS. THE FORCING CREATING THE SNOW GENERALLY LINES UP WITH THE ADVECTION IN THE 800-825 MB LAYER. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONVERGENCE/FORCING WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH POPS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE BAND. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SEE EITHER NO SNOW OR JUST A FEW FLURRIES FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE BRIEF QUIET AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...RAPID SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS DURING THE MORNING AS MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SURGES INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK OUT DURING THE MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. THE FORCING/MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHUT DOWN OF THE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW PERSISTING UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY RAPID END TO THE SNOW. AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING MAY OCCUR BETWEEN I-80 AND HIGHWAY 30. AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE ROUGHLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE SHOULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO PLANS ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY WILL BE UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE COMING SNOW. ..08.. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...1037+ MB CANADIAN RIDGE STILL ON TRACK TO DUMP DOWN THE PLAINS/UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH A SCOURING EFFECT ON CLOUDS/ANY LINGERING PRECIP. 12Z MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD PROFILES SUCH AS -13C TO -18C H925 MB TEMPS OVER SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK FOR A TEMP BOTTOM-OUT AS LONG AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR. WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH INTO THU MORNING...AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...BOTH THESE IDEAL RADIATE-OUT PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE SO IDEAL. BUT WILL BANK ON THE DEEP SNOW COVER AND SFC WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE AND KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA REACHING LOWS OF -8 TO -12F ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...TO -3 TO -9F TO THE SOUTH. EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF 3-6 MPH WILL STILL GENERATE -15 TO -25F WIND CHILLS ACRS THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID THU MORNING. THUS AN ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EVENTUALLY ISSUED. RETURN FLOW STREAMS BACK NORTHWARD BEHIND PASSING RIDGE AXIS FOR LATE THU AFTERNOON HIGHS. DEPENDING ON WIND SPEED DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING...THU NIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR FROM SUNSET THROUGH 9-10 PM CST OR SO...BEFORE DOING A STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND INTO FRI MORNING. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DAMPENING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE CLIPPER STORM TRACK AND LLVL BAROCLINICITY GETTING SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BULK OF THE SOLUTION SUGGEST FRI TO BE A WARM SECTOR DAY SOUTH OF A PASSING WAVE ACRS MN INTO WI...THE WARM DRAW UP ACRS THE CWA WOULD PRODUCE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW COVER...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE 30S ALTHOUGH A 40 STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. SFC WAVE AND FRONT SLIP THRU THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BUT POST-LOW COOL DOWN NOTHING EXTREME. WITH SOME SNOW MELT JUICING THE SFC LAYER ON FRI...ANY SFC WINDS GOING LIGHT OR LIGHT CONVERGENT MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG IF ANY PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OCCUR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST FLATTENED FLOW TO USHER THE NEXT WAVE/WHICH IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN RIDGE DAMPENING/ ACRS THE NORTH HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRE-SYSTEM WARMING MAY MAKE FOR MORE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I80 FOR SAT...AND CONTINUED SNOW MELTING. WITH CONVERGENT RETURN FLOW ALONG ANOTHER WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY LIMIT TEMPS SAT TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80... WILL HAVE TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN MIND IF THIS OCCURS. BULK OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEF ZONE SNOWS WOULD STAY ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN INTO WI/LOWER MI WITH THE CURRENT CLIPPER TRACK FRO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BUT SOME PRECIP WOULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...SAT EVENING A WINTRY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 30...WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS...OR RAIN-SNOW SHOWER MIX THEN POSSIBLE DOWN TO HWY 30 OR SOUTH TO I80 ON SUNDAY IN THE SYSTEM/S WAKE. WILL KEEP GENERAL BLEND OF POPS AND MAINLY SNOW WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT NIGHT IN VCNTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY. NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLES AND LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST A BRIEF CHILL DOWN MONDAY BEHIND WHAT EVER SYSTEM CAN MOVE ACRS THE REGION SAT-SUN...WITH PACIFIC JET ENERGY THEN BILLOWING IT/S WAY EASTWARD FOR A MEAN FLOW FLATTEN-OUT AGAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPS AGAIN AS WELL AS HIGHER DPTS FROM THE SOUTH EATING AT THE SNOW COVER. WAA TYPE PRECIP WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE CWA TUE INTO NEXT WED...BUT OF COURSE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT TOO DISTANT TO PLACE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT. ..12.. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 A CHAOTIC NIGHT OF MVFR CIGS MIXED WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND GROUND FOG WILL AFFECT IOWA AND ILLINOIS THROUGH AROUND 09Z/04...WHEN A NEW SNOW STORM IN SOUTHERN IOWA ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ILLINOIS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS SNOW WILL IMPACT BRL...AND MLI...BUT SHOULD MISS CID AND DBQ. SO...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR SNOWS AFTER 15Z/04...FOR MLI AND BRL...AND TEMPO IN IFR SNOW IN THE MID MORNING HOURS...WHEN IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE INTENSE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 12 TO 15 KTS. ERVIN && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ERVIN SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
716 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 716 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 VISIBLE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST...AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM INTO THE AREA TO PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS TOMORROW MORNING...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN AND DISSIPATE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S TOMORROW...WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT CAN BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE...AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADVECTION TAKING PLACE FROM DRY AREAS TO THE WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW TOMORROW. HOWEVER A LACK OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL JET WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LARGE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BREAKS DOWN A BIT SATURDAY WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY GENERALLY MID 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. BASED ON GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES AND COMPARING THEM TO JANUARY 27 (WHEN MUCH OF THE AREA FLIRTED WITH AND FOR A FEW EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES) WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS. EITHER WAY...RECORDS FOR THE DAY WILL BE SHATTERED. ON SUNDAY NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 60S BUT STILL 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM MONTANA TO COLORADO IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. RECYCLED COOLER AIR AND PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH OVER THE EAST WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS COMPARED TO THE WEST BUT OVERALL HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR ALL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT LOW TO MID 30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO BACK INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY...WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING THE RIDGE OUT OF THE AREA. PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WE ARE STILL AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY PER GFS/ECMWF 850-500MB RH BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE IN DURING THE NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN BUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT PRESENT TIME. WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH PRODUCING DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY. ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THURSDAY...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER SOME INFLUENCE FROM LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 716 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 PREVIOUS: PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IS CIRRUS TONIGHT...STREAMING IN FROM THE ROCKIES WHERE CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS VEER WEST/NORTHWEST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. NAM GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH-RES MEMBERS ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND KMCK. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS AS THERE WILL BE VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST ADVECTING IN AND PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH NAM SNOW INITIALIZATION FIELDS AND THUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPDATE: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A SHARP INVERSION ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW LLWS TO PERSIST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. UPDATED TAFS MENTIONING LLWS. LOW LEVEL JET IS QUITE LOW TO THE GROUND...AROUND TO BELOW 500 FEET. JET GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OF TAF SITES AROUND 10Z. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 245 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS. CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY FEB 6... GOODLAND.....73 (2009) MCCOOK.......75 (2009) BURLINGTON...71 (2009) HILL CITY....79 (2009) COLBY........73 (1963) TRIBUNE......71 (1999) YUMA.........69 (1963) CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY FEB 7... GOODLAND.....74 (1987) MCCOOK.......72 (1996) BURLINGTON...72 (1987) HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........76 (2009) TRIBUNE......75 (1943) YUMA.........70 (1987) CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS... GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962) HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........83 (02-12-1911) TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981) YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RRH SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...RRH CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
225 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015 RADAR RETURNS INDICATED LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME SNOW FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA. RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL STREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. ALL SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE TRI STATE AREA TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH COULD BRING SOME FOG POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT SEEM TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED SATURATED LAYER OVER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...SO NO FOG IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE MID MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH WARM FRONT. A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MOISTURE CONFINED ABOVE 7KFT AGL. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 BUSY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. KGLD WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO 2 MILES. SNOW WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. TAF GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING 1/4 VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z FOR KGLD...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT INDICATE A VERY WELL DEFINED SURFACE SATURATION LAYER. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IF THE FOG WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES. WITH A LOWER LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT KMCK...SNOW WILL ALSO END BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED IN CENTRAL CANADA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY AHEAD OF AVAILABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT MOST MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW BACKING OFF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH. BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE JET LIFT IS NOW DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CHANCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR RECEIVING GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS DIMINISHING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER SYSTEM COULD DIP FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO STILL END UP TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL END SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT TIMES WITH A STRONGER 40KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83...WHICH COULD BRING SOME MARGINAL BLOWING SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH WESTERN RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TOWARD 12Z. A STRATUS CIG IS EXPECTED ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. DECREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1108 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE JET FROM OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LED TO PERSISTENT LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MID-AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS, SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, WHICH IS WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS FOUND NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TONIGHT ONCE AN ARCTIC PERTURBATION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY). SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT BEING THE RESULT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION, LOW CLOUD COVER, AND STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. WE BOOSTED THE WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 23 TO 26 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR ESPECIALLY THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING STRONGEST THE FEW HOURS AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY UPPER TEENS, PERHAPS, BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS FAR AS THE SNOW FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED ON THAT FRONT. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT UP IN THE FAR NORTHEAST (CENTRAL KANSAS) CLOSER TO WHERE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 700MB FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION UP AROUND HAYS. THE WRF-NMM HAS THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH, BUT SINCE IT IS THE OUTLIER, MUCH LESS WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THIS SOLUTION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LESSER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SOONER IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY MILD WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALLOW DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER, IS SHOWING THE WAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSING OFF AS IT DOES. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES GENERALLY AFTER 10Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO LOWER VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF KHYS TO MVFR. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 25 TO 35KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 10Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO KANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 26 31 14 49 / 0 20 10 0 GCK 28 31 15 54 / 0 20 10 0 EHA 34 38 19 57 / 0 10 0 0 LBL 29 34 17 53 / 0 10 0 0 HYS 24 27 12 46 / 0 60 10 0 P28 30 32 12 39 / 0 30 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID LONG TERM...GERARD AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1020 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE JET FROM OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LED TO PERSISTENT LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MID-AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS, SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, WHICH IS WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS FOUND NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TONIGHT ONCE AN ARCTIC PERTURBATION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY). SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT BEING THE RESULT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION, LOW CLOUD COVER, AND STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. WE BOOSTED THE WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 23 TO 26 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR ESPECIALLY THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING STRONGEST THE FEW HOURS AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY UPPER TEENS, PERHAPS, BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS FAR AS THE SNOW FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED ON THAT FRONT. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT UP IN THE FAR NORTHEAST (CENTRAL KANSAS) CLOSER TO WHERE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 700MB FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION UP AROUND HAYS. THE WRF-NMM HAS THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH, BUT SINCE IT IS THE OUTLIER, MUCH LESS WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THIS SOLUTION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LESSER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SOONER IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY MILD WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALLOW DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER, IS SHOWING THE WAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSING OFF AS IT DOES. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 508 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY AS THIS FRONT PASSES A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WIND AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE NAM, RAP, ARW, AND NMM THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE HAYS AREA BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AND THEN DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDING INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL WILL QUICKLY SATURATED SO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CEILINGS. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 3-5SM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATES THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY IN THE HAYS AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 26 31 14 49 / 0 20 10 0 GCK 28 31 15 54 / 0 20 10 0 EHA 34 38 19 57 / 0 10 0 0 LBL 29 34 17 53 / 0 10 10 0 HYS 24 27 12 46 / 0 60 10 0 P28 30 32 12 39 / 0 20 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID LONG TERM...GERARD AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LIKELY PAST ITS PEAK OF IMPACT. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. DRY SLOT APPEARS TO BE COMING IN QUICKLY WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THIS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS DRYER AIR MOVING IN AS WELL. THUS HAVING LESS FAITH IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL BE AROUND AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES CAPTURE THE CURRENT SWATH IN PLACE BUT SHOWS NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COMING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THATS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/LA BORDER. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE...THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. THEREFORE...HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY DROPPED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 06Z AND THEN NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...COULD THERE/S A POSSIBILITY THAT THE RAIN COULD MOVE THROUGH SOONER AND ALL BE DONE BY 00Z. BASICALLY SAYING THAT THE POP FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF TIMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT...SO NOT THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL FALL TOO MUCH. THUS HAVE KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND OPEN WHILE IT MERGES WITH A MUCH DEEP THROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. .LONG TERM... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF MID WEEK WARMUP IS POSSIBLE IF RIDGE TO THE WEST FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. MEFFER && .AVIATION... STARTING TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WITH DRY SLOT SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUD DECK NEAR FL010 TO BE VARIABLE IN AREAL COVERAGE AT MOST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE NIGHT. 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINTAIN SOME NEAR FL050 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. 35 && .MARINE... WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIGS IN OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKE BORGNE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HEADLINE FREE...BUT IT MAY GET CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LATE TONIGHT. ONCE CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HEADLINES PROBABLY NECESSARY AT THAT POINT. 35 && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 41 51 29 56 / 20 10 0 0 BTR 42 54 33 57 / 20 10 0 0 ASD 43 58 34 57 / 20 10 0 0 MSY 46 56 38 56 / 20 10 0 0 GPT 43 57 34 55 / 20 10 0 0 PQL 41 57 32 55 / 20 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM. MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 .AVIATION... FOR THE 04/06Z TAFS...LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NEWD FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KLFK WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHWRS AS FAR NORTH AS KSHV OR KMLU BY 04/18Z BUT MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RAIN SOUTH OF I-20 AND ENDS PRECIP AT KLFK BEFORE NOON. MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE SURGES NWD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE LOW. /09/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/ DISCUSSION... LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS PRETTY SOLID IN COVERAGE MUCH EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX INTO SW LA HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS IT HAS MOVED EAST AND ENCOUNTERED DRIER AIR. NEXT BATCH OF RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO REFORM WELL SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE SE TX COAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HANDLED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FIRST BATCH QUITE WELL AND IS TRYING TO BRING THE NEW PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST INTO OUT SOUTHERN ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL BUT TIGHT UPPER TROUGH SPINNING ACROSS OLD MEXICO...MOVING INTO EXTREME S TX ATTM. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY SUPPOSED TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO SC TX BY 12Z WED...FILLING AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX BY 18Z WED. THE PRECIP FCST MAY BE A LITTLE BIT HIGH ON POPS OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITNESSED ON KSHV`S 00Z SOUNDING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS OBVIOUSLY MORE MOIST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SO WILL LET THE POP FCST RIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A QUICK CHECK OF 03Z TEMPS SHOW THAT FCST TEMPS ARE WITHIN TOLERANCE COMPARED TO ACTUAL AMBIENT 03Z TEMPS. ALL OTHER FCST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE FCST OVERNIGHT. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 39 56 38 45 29 / 10 30 20 10 0 MLU 36 54 36 44 27 / 10 30 30 10 0 DEQ 33 53 31 43 27 / 0 20 20 10 0 TXK 38 53 32 44 28 / 0 20 20 10 0 ELD 33 53 33 43 25 / 0 20 30 10 0 TYR 41 57 38 47 34 / 20 20 20 10 0 GGG 39 56 40 47 31 / 20 20 20 10 0 LFK 42 59 44 51 34 / 40 30 20 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NOTED UPSTREAM. THE FIRST IS TRACKING INTO CNTRL/SRN MN...AND THE SECOND IS OVER CNTRL MANITOBA. THE FORMER IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF -SN THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI. THE LATTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. AS FOR ONGOING LES...LES HAS BEEN MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DISORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME DOMINANT BANDS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONE IN PARTICULAR WAS AFFECTING THE HOUGHTON VCNTY EARLIER TODAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...IMPACTS HAVE PROBABLY BEEN LIMITED. WITH DAYTIME WEAKENING OF LAND BREEZES AND LOCALIZED COVERGENCE...THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI INTO LWR MI TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE NRN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW MAY JUST CLIP SCNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL REACH NRN MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. IN RESPONSE...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION LIFTING FROM 4KFT THIS EVENING TO UPWARDS OF 10KFT OR MORE BY 12Z WED. IN NW UPPER MI...HIGH RES MODELS TEND TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. THIS IS A TYPICAL LOCATION FOR CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS UNDER SYNOPTIC WNW FLOW DUE TO STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO WIND AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THEY WILL BE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RISING INVERSION/STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE...LES ADVY IS WARRANTED FOR ONTONAGON/NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE DEPARTS IN THE MORNING...A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING IN THE AFTN. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SLOW FALL OF THE INVERSION TO AROUND 6KFT BY LATE AFTN. DGZ WILL STILL OCCUPY AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE SFC WED AFTN UNDER CAA REGIME WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO -25 TO -27C BY EVENING. SO...HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS UPWARDS OF 25 OR MORE TO 1 TONIGHT WILL FALL TO UNDER 20 TO 1 WED. IN THE END...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES BY WED EVENING WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MUCH GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IF THE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONGLY FOCUSED. INCREASING NW WINDS WED...GUSTING TO 20-30MPH... WILL LEAD TO BLSN AND SHARPLY REDUCED VIS. MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVY FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO BLSN ON WED. TO THE E...FCST IS MUCH MORE CHALLENGING. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH FAIRLY SOLID LOOKING ICE COVER FROM WHITEFISH BAY N TO MICHIPICOTEN BAY SHOULD LEAD TO A HEALTHY LAND BREEZE PUSHING WELL OUT INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. END RESULT WILL BE A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING BTWN THIS WESTWARD PUSHING LAND BREEZE AND THE WNW WINDS OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. VERY HVY SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON HOW THE SNOW BAND WILL EVOLVE...WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED AND WHETHER MUCH OF IT WILL IMPACT UPPER MI. STEADY WNW WINDS OF 25-30KT UP AT 850MB DO SUGGEST SOME OF THIS HVY SNOW SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES ATTM. WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR TONIGHT. ON WED...STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW WILL OVERCOME THE LAND BREEZE AND PUSH THE HEAVIER SNOW ONSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF WNW MULTI- BAND LES. WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR ALGER (MAINLY E HALF OF THE COUNTY) AND LUCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WED. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS) MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3 INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS). THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 AT KCMX...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED EVENING. INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO BLSN. AT KIWD/KSAW...AS WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES. EXPECT - SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW. WED EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD AND KSAW WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AND THEN BACK SW AND STRENGTHEN ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE SW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THU AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15-25KT OUT OF THE N FOR SAT. WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE INTO SUN AS THEY VEER EASTERLY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002- 003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006- 007. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1032 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today. Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between 14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day, but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further south when the snow moves through. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Snow should be ending across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois early this evening as the shortwave shifts east of the area. A blast of Arctic air will follow in the wake of the snow today. Temperatures near or below zero are expected Thursday morning near the center of the high in northern Missouri...with only single digits to low teens elsewhere. With such a cold start to Thursday, we likely won`t crack freezing during the afternoon over most of the area. However, the high moves southeast through the day and return flow on the western side of the high starts ramping up by 00Z Friday. Temperature forecast will likely be tricky for Thursday night into Friday morning due to the return flow. Have nearly steady hourly temps overnight at this time, but they may even rise slowly. Friday looks as much as 20 degrees warmer than Thursday. Mild and dry weather looks to continue for the weekend into next week. There`s a slight chance of some precipitation Sunday into Monday as a shortwave moves southeast across the area and amplifies over the Eastern Seaboard. The cold high pressure which gets dragged south in the wake of the wave still looks to brush by us to the north. While it looks like temperatures will fall back below seasonal normals, the teeth of the cold air will likely stay north of our area. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1019 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Band of snow closing in on KUIN at this hour and will progress east southeastward into remaining TAF sites this afternoon. IFR visibilities and ceilings expected with heavier snow at KUIN, with low end MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities at remaining TAF sites. Snow will last about 3 hours, then expect rapid clearing as dry arctic air moves in. Northwest winds will diminish overnight and become light and variable by daybreak on Thursday. Specifics for KSTL: Snow band should move in by around 21Z with IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings. This should last about 3 hours...with skies then clearing by 05Z. Northwest winds will diminish overnight and become light and variable by daybreak on Thursday. Browning && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 39 9 26 21 / 90 40 0 0 Quincy 23 -1 19 15 / 90 5 0 0 Columbia 33 6 27 20 / 90 20 0 0 Jefferson City 35 8 29 21 / 90 20 0 0 Salem 40 10 25 19 / 80 70 0 0 Farmington 43 10 29 19 / 90 80 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
553 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today. Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between 14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day, but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further south when the snow moves through. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Snow should be ending across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois early this evening as the shortwave shifts east of the area. A blast of Arctic air will follow in the wake of the snow today. Temperatures near or below zero are expected Thursday morning near the center of the high in northern Missouri...with only single digits to low teens elsewhere. With such a cold start to Thursday, we likely won`t crack freezing during the afternoon over most of the area. However, the high moves southeast through the day and return flow on the western side of the high starts ramping up by 00Z Friday. Temperature forecast will likely be tricky for Thursday night into Friday morning due to the return flow. Have nearly steady hourly temps overnight at this time, but they may even rise slowly. Friday looks as much as 20 degrees warmer than Thursday. Mild and dry weather looks to continue for the weekend into next week. There`s a slight chance of some precipitation Sunday into Monday as a shortwave moves southeast across the area and amplifies over the Eastern Seaboard. The cold high pressure which gets dragged south in the wake of the wave still looks to brush by us to the north. While it looks like temperatures will fall back below seasonal normals, the teeth of the cold air will likely stay north of our area. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Arctic front currently approaching nw side of the STL area attm, while today`s snowfall for our area is currently over NE and w IA and rapidly spreading ESE. At this time, clouds are aoa 10kft in and near the FA, and we are not yet seeing the expected development of MVFR stratus in the wake of the cold front. Lack of upstream low cloud deck is making this development somewhat uncertain, but given the low level saturation that all the models are forecasting have continued with the development of these MVFR cigs, albeit a bit slower than in 06z issuance. However, all guidance indicates IFR cigs and vsbys developing shortly after the onset of the snow, and there is excellent agreement in the hi-res models with regards to the start times (16-17z @ KUIN, 19-21z @ COU, and 20-22z in STL metro). Snow should end over our n counties by mid- late afternoon, and taper off over STL metro by early evening. Forecast soundings and plan view low level RH progs suggest fairly rapid clearing several hours after the end of the snowfall, and have followed this trend. Specifics for KSTL: Arctic front will be passing through the STL area over the next 1-2 hours, with a gradual increase in northerly winds. Clouds should remain aoa 10kft for most of the morning, but still expect a threat of MVFR cigs developing around midday, followed by the onset of snow that will take ceilings and vsbys in the IFR cat from mid afternoon into the early evening. As mentioned above, all of the hi-res guidance is very similar with onset and end of the snow followed by rapidly clearing, and it appears that the MVFR cigs in the wake of the snowfall should clear out no later than 06z. Truett && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 34 10 27 22 / 90 30 0 0 Quincy 22 -1 20 16 / 90 5 0 0 Columbia 30 7 28 22 / 90 10 0 0 Jefferson City 33 8 30 23 / 90 10 0 0 Salem 38 12 26 21 / 80 70 0 0 Farmington 43 11 30 21 / 90 80 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today. Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between 14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day, but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further south when the snow moves through. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Snow should be ending across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois early this evening as the shortwave shifts east of the area. A blast of Arctic air will follow in the wake of the snow today. Temperatures near or below zero are expected Thursday morning near the center of the high in northern Missouri...with only single digits to low teens elsewhere. With such a cold start to Thursday, we likely won`t crack freezing during the afternoon over most of the area. However, the high moves southeast through the day and return flow on the western side of the high starts ramping up by 00Z Friday. Temperature forecast will likely be tricky for Thursday night into Friday morning due to the return flow. Have nearly steady hourly temps overnight at this time, but they may even rise slowly. Friday looks as much as 20 degrees warmer than Thursday. Mild and dry weather looks to continue for the weekend into next week. There`s a slight chance of some precipitation Sunday into Monday as a shortwave moves southeast across the area and amplifies over the Eastern Seaboard. The cold high pressure which gets dragged south in the wake of the wave still looks to brush by us to the north. While it looks like temperatures will fall back below seasonal normals, the teeth of the cold air will likely stay north of our area. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2015 A strong cold front will move southeastward into northern MO and central IL overnight and progress through central and eastern MO the first part of Wednesday morning. The latest data suggests that stratus will spread into the region in the wake of the cold front lowering flight conditions to MVFR, however the arrival of stratus will be slower than previously forecast and probably 3-4 hours after fropa. During the later half of the morning into the afternoon a band of snow will spread into the region from the northwest. Flight conditions will deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow band with accumulating snowfall likely at all the terminals. Longevity of the snowfall will be greatest at KUIN where 2-3 inches is possible between 16-22z, while around 2 inches of snow is expected at KCOU from 18-23z, and around 1 inch at the St. Louis terminals between 21-01z. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday morning with predominately high clouds. A strong cold front will move through the terminal between 14-15z with stratus lagging the fropa by 3-4 hours. The stratus will result in MVFR flight conditions around 18z. A band of snow will then spread into KSTL around 21z and last until around 01z. Flight conditions will deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow band with accumulating snowfall of around 1 inch expected. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 34 10 27 22 / 90 30 0 0 Quincy 22 -1 20 16 / 90 5 0 0 Columbia 30 7 28 22 / 90 10 0 0 Jefferson City 33 8 30 23 / 90 10 0 0 Salem 38 12 26 21 / 80 70 0 0 Farmington 43 11 30 21 / 90 80 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO- Shelby MO. IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
322 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015 Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today. Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between 14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day, but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further south when the snow moves through. Carney .LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2015 Northwest flow aloft will prevail thru early next week with occasional shortwave disturbances rolling thru. The first, and for our purposes the most significant, is set for Wednesday. Still good agreement amongst the models on timing and track of an area of strong frontogenesis overlapping very well an area of moderately strong broadscale lift directly associated with the shortwave disturbance. The moisture thru the column is also above average for early February and this should promote measurable snow for most, if not all, of our forecast area. With additional confidence, it looks like the northern W-E band of snow will be the most persistent as it moves off to the east, giving longer residence times and boosted snow amounts for our northeast MO and west-central IL counties into the 2-4" range as a result. The southern band will also be oriented principally W-E but will be much more migratory as it pushes southeastward and weakens some, leading to much lower residence times over any one location. The result for areas outside of northeast MO and west-central IL will be lesser snow amounts, ranging from 1-2" in central MO where the frontogenesis has consistently been advertised to be stronger than areas further east...and 1" or less for STL metro and areas to the south and east. The forcing quickly exits early Wednesday evening and held on to likely PoPs for a brief time southeast of STL metro, with clearing to follow a few hours later. A Winter Wx Advisory will be issued with this package for averages of 3" or more of snow for northeast MO and west-central IL. This Advisory may be expanded for areas further south due to anticipated impacts of brief bursts of moderate to heavy snow during the afternoon rush, but will let the overnight shift make the final call on that after taking another look at a later run of the models and possibly further refining the timing. Another shortwave disturbance looks like it will just miss us to the north on Friday, with what appears to be a more direct hit on late Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture looked pretty limited until very late, and so kept PoPs mostly off in IL and low with plenty of time to watch. Another disturbance may be set for Monday next week, but a lot of model discrepancies here and confidence remains low. Otherwise, dropping temps on Wednesday with the Arctic boundary will keep pcpn-types all snow, except in southeast MO and southern IL, where they may begin as rain before changing to snow. A very cold night Wednesday night, with sub-zero temps and around 10 below wind chills expected for northern MO and central IL where the snowpack will be deepest. Still well below normal elsewhere and this will carry into Thursday daytime. A strong rebound then expected Thursday night with rising temps and a running start into Friday, as temps surge well into the 40s, and then well into the 50s for most locations Saturday. More seasonable temps for next week then on tap. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2015 A strong cold front will move southeastward into northern MO and central IL overnight and progress through central and eastern MO the first part of Wednesday morning. The latest data suggests that stratus will spread into the region in the wake of the cold front lowering flight conditions to MVFR, however the arrival of stratus will be slower than previously forecast and probably 3-4 hours after fropa. During the later half of the morning into the afternoon a band of snow will spread into the region from the northwest. Flight conditions will deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow band with accumulating snowfall likely at all the terminals. Longevity of the snowfall will be greatest at KUIN where 2-3 inches is possible between 16-22z, while around 2 inches of snow is expected at KCOU from 18-23z, and around 1 inch at the St. Louis terminals between 21-01z. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday morning with predominately high clouds. A strong cold front will move through the terminal between 14-15z with stratus lagging the fropa by 3-4 hours. The stratus will result in MVFR flight conditions around 18z. A band of snow will then spread into KSTL around 21z and last until around 01z. Flight conditions will deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow band with accumulating snowfall of around 1 inch expected. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 34 12 27 22 / 90 30 0 0 Quincy 22 2 20 16 / 90 5 0 0 Columbia 30 8 28 22 / 90 10 0 0 Jefferson City 33 9 30 23 / 90 10 0 0 Salem 38 14 26 21 / 80 70 0 0 Farmington 43 13 30 21 / 90 80 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO- Shelby MO. IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
108 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN WY INTO ERN CO...WHILE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER OVER CNTRL MT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEBR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH IS KEEPING SNOW SOUTH OF FAR NRN NEBR ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 TODAY... WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR...THIS SYSTEM OBSERVED FROM RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST FORECAST OF SNOWFALL TOTALS GAVE ABOUT AN INCH INCREASE FOR CUSTER COUNTY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INCREASE OF A HALF INCH FOR HOOKER...AND THOMAS COUNTY. CONVECTIVE FEATURES SHOWN ON KLNX RADAR AND ADJACENT RADARS TO OUR WEST ARE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITH NEGATIVE EPV. STRONG OMEGA OF 15 MICROBARS LIFT IN THE 12C TO -18C DENDRITIC LAYER SHOWN BY 13KM RAP MODEL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z...THEN DECREASING THROUGH 15Z AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR SETTLES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. HAVE UPGRADED HOOKER...THOMAS...BLAINE AND CUSTER COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 5 TO 7 INCH TOTALS ARE LIKELY. TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CNTRL GARDEN COUNTY EAST ACROSS ARTHUR...MCPHERSON...LOGAN COUNTY. REST OF GOING COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CNTRL SANDHILLS AND EAST TO NEAR 25 AT IML. TONIGHT... THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AS WINDS ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 15 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE LOWS TONIGHT AND IF WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME EVEN LOWER. FORECAST LOWS ARE FOR NEAR 1 BELOW IN WHEELER COUNTY WHILE WESTERN COUNTIES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. SOME CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST IN THE WEST AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE MID AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A COLD AND CHILLY DAY TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED MIXING DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS AND GENERALLY AT COLDEST OR BELOW GUIDANCE...IN THE 40S TO UPPER 30S. IN EXTREME SW NEBRASKA WHERE ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY REMAIN...HIGHS AROUND 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY /DOWNSLOPING/ WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL AID IN MIXING THE BL ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALSO WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS AT AND ABOVE 10C FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 60S AND 50S...HOWEVER TRENDED DOWN OVER THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW FIELD IN FAVOR OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SATURDAY HAS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW MELT WILL ALSO HAVE OCCURRED AND THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE DIMINISH AND HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT...ALTHOUGH SOME. HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL...WHERE 850 MB TEMPS THE COOLEST...10C TO 13C. WESTERN ZONES RANGE FROM AROUND 12C IN THE N TO AROUND 17C IN THE S. ACROSS SW NEB WITH THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WHAT SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW REMAINING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WELL. GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS DUE TO A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY FOR NEXT WEEK AS ROCKIES RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS TO CAUSE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST IS DRY. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. WHILE NOT SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE MODELS...THE WARMER TEMPS WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND AN INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MOISTURE. AS TEMPS COOL AT NIGHT...FOG CAN NOT BE RULED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS PINNING DOWN SN ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING OVER THE CWA. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUPPORT GOING FCST WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SRN CWA IS ON TRACK...AND IS SUPPORTED BY HIRES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF SNOW OVER WRN NEB BEGINNING TO EXPAND EWD...AND SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE WRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AS MENTIONED...EXPECT THE SRN CWA TO RECEIVE BRUNT OF ACCUMULATION THRU THIS MORNING WHERE AXIS OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/ IS PROGGED TO SET UP. AS FOR AMOUNTS...BELIEVE AMOUNTS PROVIDED BY THE HIRES PROGS/COBB DATA ARE QUITE REASONABLE DEPICTING ANYWHERE FROM 2-5 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOONE COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY...AND 1-2 INCHES NORTH. SNOWFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO COME TO A CLOSE BY EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GENEROUS WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY...AND LOWER/MID 40S FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH THRU THE EXTENDED PDS AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ECM MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH LOWER/MID 40S ON SAT/SUN AS OPPOSED THE MEX PUSHING HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S. MEX AND DETERMINISTIC ECM IN AGREEMENT A BIT COLDER THEN ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH 00Z AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ068- 088>093. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090- 091. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
546 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN WY INTO ERN CO...WHILE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER OVER CNTRL MT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEBR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH IS KEEPING SNOW SOUTH OF FAR NRN NEBR ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 TODAY... WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR...THIS SYSTEM OBSERVED FROM RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST FORECAST OF SNOWFALL TOTALS GAVE ABOUT AN INCH INCREASE FOR CUSTER COUNTY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INCREASE OF A HALF INCH FOR HOOKER...AND THOMAS COUNTY. CONVECTIVE FEATURES SHOWN ON KLNX RADAR AND ADJACENT RADARS TO OUR WEST ARE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITH NEGATIVE EPV. STRONG OMEGA OF 15 MICROBARS LIFT IN THE 12C TO -18C DENDRITIC LAYER SHOWN BY 13KM RAP MODEL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z...THEN DECREASING THROUGH 15Z AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR SETTLES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. HAVE UPGRADED HOOKER...THOMAS...BLAINE AND CUSTER COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 5 TO 7 INCH TOTALS ARE LIKELY. TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CNTRL GARDEN COUNTY EAST ACROSS ARTHUR...MCPHERSON...LOGAN COUNTY. REST OF GOING COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CNTRL SANDHILLS AND EAST TO NEAR 25 AT IML. TONIGHT... THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AS WINDS ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 15 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE LOWS TONIGHT AND IF WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME EVEN LOWER. FORECAST LOWS ARE FOR NEAR 1 BELOW IN WHEELER COUNTY WHILE WESTERN COUNTIES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. SOME CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST IN THE WEST AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE MID AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A COLD AND CHILLY DAY TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED MIXING DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS AND GENERALLY AT COLDEST OR BELOW GUIDANCE...IN THE 40S TO UPPER 30S. IN EXTREME SW NEBRASKA WHERE ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY REMAIN...HIGHS AROUND 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY /DOWNSLOPING/ WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL AID IN MIXING THE BL ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALSO WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS AT AND ABOVE 10C FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 60S AND 50S...HOWEVER TRENDED DOWN OVER THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW FIELD IN FAVOR OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SATURDAY HAS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW MELT WILL ALSO HAVE OCCURRED AND THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE DIMINISH AND HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT...ALTHOUGH SOME. HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL...WHERE 850 MB TEMPS THE COOLEST...10C TO 13C. WESTERN ZONES RANGE FROM AROUND 12C IN THE N TO AROUND 17C IN THE S. ACROSS SW NEB WITH THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WHAT SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW REMAINING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WELL. GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS DUE TO A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY FOR NEXT WEEK AS ROCKIES RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS TO CAUSE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST IS DRY. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. WHILE NOT SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE MODELS...THE WARMER TEMPS WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND AN INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MOISTURE. AS TEMPS COOL AT NIGHT...FOG CAN NOT BE RULED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 THE AREA OF SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY REMAINS AT KLBF...KOGA AND KBBW. BLOWING SNOW WITH VSBY TO 1/2SM. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE SEEN BY 14Z TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES. AT KVTN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR BY 16Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NEZ004-005-008-027>029-056-058-094. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NEZ022>026-035>038-057-059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
502 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS PINNING DOWN SN ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING OVER THE CWA. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUPPORT GOING FCST WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SRN CWA IS ON TRACK...AND IS SUPPORTED BY HIRES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF SNOW OVER WRN NEB BEGINNING TO EXPAND EWD...AND SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE WRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AS MENTIONED...EXPECT THE SRN CWA TO RECEIVE BRUNT OF ACCUMULATION THRU THIS MORNING WHERE AXIS OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/ IS PROGGED TO SET UP. AS FOR AMOUNTS...BELIEVE AMOUNTS PROVIDED BY THE HIRES PROGS/COBB DATA ARE QUITE REASONABLE DEPICTING ANYWHERE FROM 2-5 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOONE COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY...AND 1-2 INCHES NORTH. SNOWFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO COME TO A CLOSE BY EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GENEROUS WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY...AND LOWER/MID 40S FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH THRU THE EXTENDED PDS AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ECM MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH LOWER/MID 40S ON SAT/SUN AS OPPOSED THE MEX PUSHING HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S. MEX AND DETERMINISTIC ECM IN AGREEMENT A BIT COLDER THEN ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR INTO MID MORNING AT KOFK AND INTO MID OR LATE MORNING FOR KOMA AND KLNK. A PERIOD OF MFVR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ068- 088>093. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ030-042>045- 050>053-065>067-078. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090- 091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ069-079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN WY INTO ERN CO...WHILE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER OVER CNTRL MT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEBR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH IS KEEPING SNOW SOUTH OF FAR NRN NEBR ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 TODAY... WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO FAR...THIS SYSTEM OBSERVED FROM RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST FORECAST OF SNOWFALL TOTALS GAVE ABOUT AN INCH INCREASE FOR CUSTER COUNTY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INCREASE OF A HALF INCH FOR HOOKER...AND THOMAS COUNTY. CONVECTIVE FEATURES SHOWN ON KLNX RADAR AND ADJACENT RADARS TO OUR WEST ARE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITH NEGATIVE EPV. STRONG OMEGA OF 15 MICROBARS LIFT IN THE 12C TO -18C DENDRITIC LAYER SHOWN BY 13KM RAP MODEL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z...THEN DECREASING THROUGH 15Z AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR SETTLES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. HAVE UPGRADED HOOKER...THOMAS...BLAINE AND CUSTER COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 5 TO 7 INCH TOTALS ARE LIKELY. TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CNTRL GARDEN COUNTY EAST ACROSS ARTHUR...MCPHERSON...LOGAN COUNTY. REST OF GOING COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. ALL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CNTRL SANDHILLS AND EAST TO NEAR 25 AT IML. TONIGHT... THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AS WINDS ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 15 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE LOWS TONIGHT AND IF WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME EVEN LOWER. FORECAST LOWS ARE FOR NEAR 1 BELOW IN WHEELER COUNTY WHILE WESTERN COUNTIES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. SOME CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST IN THE WEST AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE MID AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A COLD AND CHILLY DAY TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED MIXING DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS AND GENERALLY AT COLDEST OR BELOW GUIDANCE...IN THE 40S TO UPPER 30S. IN EXTREME SW NEBRASKA WHERE ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY REMAIN...HIGHS AROUND 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY /DOWNSLOPING/ WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL AID IN MIXING THE BL ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALSO WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS AT AND ABOVE 10C FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 60S AND 50S...HOWEVER TRENDED DOWN OVER THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW FIELD IN FAVOR OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SATURDAY HAS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW MELT WILL ALSO HAVE OCCURRED AND THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE DIMINISH AND HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT...ALTHOUGH SOME. HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL...WHERE 850 MB TEMPS THE COOLEST...10C TO 13C. WESTERN ZONES RANGE FROM AROUND 12C IN THE N TO AROUND 17C IN THE S. ACROSS SW NEB WITH THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WHAT SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW REMAINING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WELL. GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS DUE TO A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY FOR NEXT WEEK AS ROCKIES RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS TO CAUSE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST IS DRY. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. WHILE NOT SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE MODELS...THE WARMER TEMPS WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND AN INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MOISTURE. AS TEMPS COOL AT NIGHT...FOG CAN NOT BE RULED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 THE AREA OF SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY ACROSS NCNTL/WRN NEB WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW FORMING ACROSS ERN WY. LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE SRN AND ERN SECTION OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR IMPROVING TO VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NEZ004-005-008-027>029-056-058-094. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NEZ022>026-035>038-057-059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
155 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS PINNING DOWN SN ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING OVER THE CWA. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUPPORT GOING FCST WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SRN CWA IS ON TRACK...AND IS SUPPORTED BY HIRES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF SNOW OVER WRN NEB BEGINNING TO EXPAND EWD...AND SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE WRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AS MENTIONED...EXPECT THE SRN CWA TO RECEIVE BRUNT OF ACCUMULATION THRU THIS MORNING WHERE AXIS OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/ IS PROGGED TO SET UP. AS FOR AMOUNTS...BELIEVE AMOUNTS PROVIDED BY THE HIRES PROGS/COBB DATA ARE QUITE REASONABLE DEPICTING ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOONE COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY...AND 1-2 INCHES NORTH. SNOWFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO COME TO A CLOSE BY EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GENEROUS WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY...AND LOW/MID 40S FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH THRU THE EXTENDED PDS AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ECMMOS MAX TEMPS LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH LOW/MID 40S ON SAT/SUN AS OPPOSED THE MEX PUSHING HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S. MEX AND DETERMINISTIC ECM IN AGREEMENT A BIT COLDER THEN ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KLNK AND KOMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THE SNOW SHOULD END AT ALL SITES BY 18Z WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30KT WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22Z BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ030-042>045- 050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ069-079-080- 090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 A TANDEM OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THE FIRST OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE SECOND OVER WASHINGTON STATE. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER SNOWCOVERED AREA...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 FED THE LATEST FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP. THIS SHIFTED THE CENTROID OF HIGHEST QPF NORTH ABOUT 10 MILES WHICH LINED UP QUITE WELL WITH THE NEIGHBOR OFFICES EAST AND WEST. ALSO BROUGHT IN SOME RAP MODEL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WHICH PRESERVE THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RAIN SNOW LINE LATER TONIGHT NEAR OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH AND PERHAPS A SHIFT EAST A BIT. THE CENTROID IS FROM CRESCENT LAKE IN GARDEN COUNTY TO BROKEN BOW. THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH KEEPS THE SNOW GOING IN THE SOUTH AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING SO BOOSTED THE GUSTS. A CHECK ON THE CAMS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE IT IS SNOWING SHOWS WET ROADS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED OVERNIGHT AND FREEZE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE JET DYNAMICS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE RESULTING IN STRONG LIFT AND A CLASSIC AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH PWATS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE TYPES OF SNOW BANDS ARE QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BAND WILL LIKELY CENTER ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OSHKOSH...TO ARTHUR...TO STAPLETON. NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS...AND GENERALLY EXPECTING ABOUT A 13 TO 1 RATIO OR SO DURING THE HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW. WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY SNOW BAND...EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. LIFT IS SUCH THAT HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SOME TOTALS AROUND 9 OR 10 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS MENTIONED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AS YOU MOVE NORTH OR SOUTH FROM THE SNOW BAND...AND ONLY EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM MODEL INDICATES 500 METER WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 22 KTS OR SO...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...ADDING TO THE SITUATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR IN BOTH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING A BATCH OF VERY COLD AIR WITH IT...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVER THE MID RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO SERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...TRACKING INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE EVENING HRS WITH INCREASING SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. ATTM...GIVEN THE LATE ONSET OF WINDS WEDS NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 ABOVE IN THE EAST TO THE MID TEENS IN THE FAR WEST. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO 8C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE WARM THURSDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...TO THE MID 50S IN THE WEST. ATTM...THE ONLY PLACE I COULD SEE 50S OCCURRING WOULD BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED WITH TONIGHT/S SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...DECENT SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/S STORM...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER FROM LAST SUNDAYS STORM...WILL LIMIT HIGHS THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE EAST...TO 40S ELSEWHERE. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH H85 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 8 TO 12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. INITIALLY WAS CONCERNED WITH SOME FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ARE NOT TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHIFTING TO FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 14C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE SNOWCOVER WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 40S. LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 16C. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SIMILAR TEMPS WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EAST TO 50S WEST. ATTM...BASED ON THE LATEST EC AND MEX GUIDANCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AS POPS ARE WELL BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 THE AREA OF SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY ACROSS NCNTL/WRN NEB WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW FORMING ACROSS ERN WY. LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE SRN AND ERN SECTION OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR IMPROVING TO VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ004-005-008-024>029-038-056-058-094. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ022-023-035>037-057-059. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...TAYLOR LONG TERM...CLB AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
931 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE... MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY COVER. LOW CLOUDS IN SE THIRD OF FA CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH THIS EVENING AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A BIT OF A NORTHWARD PUSH IN SOME AREAS. MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS BEFORE FINALLY SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING. RAP HOLDS THESE CLOUDS IN LONGER THAN THE NAM AND WITH HOW TOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE HANGING IN WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER TREND OF THE RAP SO HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PART OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA WHICH THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SO UNSURE HOW FAR INTO THE FA THESE CLOUDS WILL GO. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MIN TEMPS. WHERE AND HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SOME AREAS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AND THE HIGH CLOUDS... DEPENDING ON HOW THICK... COULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING IN SOME AREAS. KEPT LOW TEMPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME IN SE PARTS OF FA WHERE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BUT LOWERED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES ELSEWHERE SINCE MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS HAD CURRENT TEMPS NEAR THE FORECASTED LOWS. UPDATES OUT SOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM TODAY...WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY...AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SHORT ORDER BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF 65 TO 75 DEGREES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...HUMIDITIES LOOK A BIT MARGINAL FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. REGARDLESS...BE VERY CAUTIOUS AND MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BURN TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. THIS WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OR LESS POPS...WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AUSTIN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 67 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 30 70 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 30 71 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 32 76 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 27 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 32 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS...THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED...WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1SM TO 1/4SM. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...FOG SHOULD CLEAR...BUT LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM KOKC/KOUN NORTHWARD TO KPNC FROM 21Z THROUGH 06Z. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT VISIBILITIES MAY BE AFFECTED IF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY AT KPNC. BY 10Z TO 12Z THURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... LIFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IMPACT CSM...HBR...AND SPS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY AROUND 15Z AT WWR/GAG...AND THEN AROUND 18Z FOR MOST OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 40 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSM AND HBR. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR PNC EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR PNC...BUT VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4SM. SNOW/ICE PELLETS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER OKC/OUN THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOMENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO NW OK AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL OK 18Z...AND N TX 20Z OR SLIGHTLY EARLIER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FA BASED ON PRESSURE/TEMP GRADIENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAV/LAV AND MET MOS BOTH SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED. SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODEL QPF (LAYER TOO DRY) HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR OUR AREA BUT NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET...MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKC. REGARDLESS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TRAVEL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TOMORROW MORNING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...WITH MIN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY FRIDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS LIKELY NEAR 80 FOR NW OK AND W N TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I35...IF THE SUGGESTED 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 TO 20C ARE CONFIRMED. THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MON-TUE. IT MAY ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 18 41 30 67 / 20 0 0 0 HOBART OK 19 43 30 68 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 24 43 30 70 / 10 0 0 0 GAGE OK 15 49 31 72 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 12 39 27 65 / 30 0 0 0 DURANT OK 26 42 31 64 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>030-033>040- 044-045. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ009-010- 014>016-021-022-033>036. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ 04/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... LIFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IMPACT CSM...HBR...AND SPS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY AROUND 15Z AT WWR/GAG...AND THEN AROUND 18Z FOR MOST OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 40 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSM AND HBR. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR PNC EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR PNC...BUT VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4SM. SNOW/ICE PELLETS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER OKC/OUN THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOMENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO NW OK AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL OK 18Z...AND N TX 20Z OR SLIGHTLY EARLIER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FA BASED ON PRESSURE/TEMP GRADIENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAV/LAV AND MET MOS BOTH SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED. SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODEL QPF (LAYER TOO DRY) HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR OUR AREA BUT NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET...MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKC. REGARDLESS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TRAVEL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TOMORROW MORNING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...WITH MIN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY FRIDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS LIKELY NEAR 80 FOR NW OK AND W N TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I35...IF THE SUGGESTED 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 TO 20C ARE CONFIRMED. THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MON-TUE. IT MAY ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 18 41 30 / 10 20 0 0 HOBART OK 47 19 43 30 / 0 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 53 24 43 30 / 0 10 0 0 GAGE OK 37 15 49 31 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 40 12 39 27 / 30 30 0 0 DURANT OK 55 26 42 31 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045. TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ 11/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
501 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT... AS WILL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE DURATION OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION... WHICH MAY TRANSITION TO ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO LOW CHANCES AND LOW EXPECTED COVERAGE... PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/ DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY GOES ON. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST PLACES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT THE REAL WARMUP WILL KICK INTO HIGH GEAR FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...AND QUITE POSSIBLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 70S WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MODEL PROGGED 900 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAVE BEEN AN EXCELLENT INDICATOR OF HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS THE PAST FEW WEEKS...INDICATE THAT THIS FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS FROM FRIDAY ON. SOME UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP IN BY MONDAY AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS INTRUSION ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND THAT TREND CONTINUES ON ITS MOST RECENT RUN. IN ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE OR NO COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW OF THE MEMBERS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AT THAT TIME RATHER THAN DECREASE. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH THE COOLDOWN ADVERTISED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STAYED NEAR THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A NON DIURNAL TREND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT THEN WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
443 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO NW OK AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL OK 18Z...AND N TX 20Z OR SLIGHTLY EARLIER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FA BASED ON PRESSURE/TEMP GRADIENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAV/LAV AND MET MOS BOTH SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED. SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODEL QPF (LAYER TOO DRY) HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR OUR AREA BUT NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET...MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKC. REGARDLESS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TRAVEL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TOMORROW MORNING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...WITH MIN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY FRIDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS LIKELY NEAR 80 FOR NW OK AND W N TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I35...IF THE SUGGESTED 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 TO 20C ARE CONFIRMED. THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MON-TUE. IT MAY ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 18 41 30 / 10 20 0 0 HOBART OK 47 19 43 30 / 0 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 53 24 43 30 / 0 10 0 0 GAGE OK 37 15 49 31 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 40 12 39 27 / 30 30 0 0 DURANT OK 55 26 42 31 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045. TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ 11/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
352 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY GOES ON. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST PLACES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT THE REAL WARMUP WILL KICK INTO HIGH GEAR FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...AND QUITE POSSIBLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 70S WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MODEL PROGGED 900 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAVE BEEN AN EXCELLENT INDICATOR OF HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS THE PAST FEW WEEKS...INDICATE THAT THIS FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS FROM FRIDAY ON. SOME UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP IN BY MONDAY AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS INTRUSION ITS PAST SEVVERAL RUNS...AND THAT TREND CONTINUES ON ITS MOST RECENT RUN. IN ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE OR NO COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW OF THE MEMBERS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AT THAT TIME RATHER THAN DECREASE. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH THE COOLDOWN ADVERTISED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STAYED NEAR THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A NON DIURNAL TREND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT THEN WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 49 15 40 28 / 20 20 0 0 FSM 58 24 43 29 / 20 30 0 0 MLC 55 20 41 29 / 20 20 0 0 BVO 45 12 39 22 / 30 20 0 0 FYV 52 16 40 24 / 20 30 0 0 BYV 52 15 39 25 / 30 30 0 0 MKO 53 18 41 26 / 20 20 0 0 MIO 47 12 38 25 / 30 20 0 0 F10 52 17 40 27 / 20 20 0 0 HHW 58 27 43 29 / 10 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....05 PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR/OBS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE NE ZONES BY 13-14Z. LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS. MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN 12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ARCTIC CHILL IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON RETURN FLOW WAA. AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP NEAR 40N THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN IN CENTRAL PA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED TO TREND POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 4-6 RANGE BUT DETAILS SUCH AS RAIN-SNOW LINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LKLY THE MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL TO NEAR AVG. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AS OF 1530Z. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A BLANKET OF VFR STRATO CU ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TAF SITES WHILE JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS AND ALTOCU WILL OCCUR. KBFD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS ALL DAY TODAY..THEN LOWER TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOME MOISTURE OFF THE GLAKES GETS INVOLVED AND LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN PENN. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VFR STRATO CU DECK MAY TEMPORARILY NOSE NORTH TO AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE STATE. SW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND WRN PENN THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 22Z AT BFD...WITH JST...AOO...UNV AND IPT FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 01 TO 04Z RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...BETWEEN 09 TO 12Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AND BE VFR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR/OBS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE NE ZONES BY 13-14Z. LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS. MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN 12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ARCTIC CHILL IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON RETURN FLOW WAA. AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP NEAR 40N THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN IN CENTRAL PA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED TO TREND POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 4-6 RANGE BUT DETAILS SUCH AS RAIN-SNOW LINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LKLY THE MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL TO NEAR AVG. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS LIGHT SNOW IS FADING AND THE LAST VESTAGES OF IT WILL LINGER OVER THE NW MTNS...ENDING BY 14Z. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TODAY...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A DEEPENING THROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE SKIES WILL DECREASE BEGINNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 22Z AT BFD...WITH JST...AOO...UNV AND IPT FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 01 TO 04Z RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...BETWEEN 09 TO 12Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AND BE VFR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
647 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR/OBS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE NE ZONES BY 13-14Z. LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS. MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN 12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ARCTIC CHILL IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON RETURN FLOW WAA. AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP NEAR 40N THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN IN CENTRAL PA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED TO TREND POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 4-6 RANGE BUT DETAILS SUCH AS RAIN-SNOW LINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LKLY THE MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL TO NEAR AVG. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT AOO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH MAINLY MVFR IS PROBABLE AT UNV...MDT AND LNS. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
615 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS. MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN 12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN- MON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/ LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS. MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN 12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN- MON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/ LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT AOO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH MAINLY MVFR IS PROBABLE AT UNV...MDT AND LNS. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
212 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... LEAD S/W ENERGY MOVG THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS WELL IN ADVANCE OF BEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY WITH WILL SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPANDED COVERAGE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ ABOUT ONE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR. HRRR ALSO CONFIRMS HIGHEST AMTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST SNOW CAN REACH THE GROUND AND CANT RULE OUT A COATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY WED...AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHARPENS UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT LAYING W-E ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ALSO BUCKLES THE FRONT AS BRINGS THE COLD AIR DOWN - AND INTO THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT BETTER MOISTURE FEED LATER WED AND EARLY WED NIGHT AND BETTER JET DYNAMICS THAN WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE MORE SNOW FALL FROM THE SKY...BUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SNOW ADVY FOR THE NRN TIER LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT - BUT A GENERAL 2-3 OVER THE 18 HRS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW. THE ACCUMS WILL...AGAIN...NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MD BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN ACCUM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON WED...IT MAY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE M-U30S. THEREFORE...ACCUMS IN THE SE HALF WILL HAVE TO BE AFTER DARK WED EVENING. THE TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD FLIP SIGN AROUND 21Z WED...AND 8H TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST -20C IN THE NORTHWESTERN MTNS BY 12Z THURS. BRRR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST ON THU WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NW FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THU BEFORE SLIDING BACKWARDS MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A NOTICABLE WIND BRINGING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY DURING THAT TIME. THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-MON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/ LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT AOO. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH MAINLY MVFR IS PROBABLE AT UNV...MDT AND LNS. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... LEAD S/W ENERGY MOVG THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS WELL IN ADVANCE OF BEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY WITH WILL SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPANDED COVERAGE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ ABOUT ONE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR. HRRR ALSO CONFIRMS HIGHEST AMTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST SNOW CAN REACH THE GROUND AND CANT RULE OUT A COATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY WED...AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHARPENS UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT LAYING W-E ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ALSO BUCKLES THE FRONT AS BRINGS THE COLD AIR DOWN - AND INTO THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT BETTER MOISTURE FEED LATER WED AND EARLY WED NIGHT AND BETTER JET DYNAMICS THAN WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE MORE SNOW FALL FROM THE SKY...BUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SNOW ADVY FOR THE NRN TIER LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT - BUT A GENERAL 2-3 OVER THE 18 HRS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW. THE ACCUMS WILL...AGAIN...NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MD BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN ACCUM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON WED...IT MAY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE M-U30S. THEREFORE...ACCUMS IN THE SE HALF WILL HAVE TO BE AFTER DARK WED EVENING. THE TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD FLIP SIGN AROUND 21Z WED...AND 8H TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST -20C IN THE NORTHWESTERN MTNS BY 12Z THURS. BRRR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST ON THU WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NW FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THU BEFORE SLIDING BACKWARDS MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A NOTICABLE WIND BRINGING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY DURING THAT TIME. THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-MON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/ LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ALL THE WAY BACK INTO OHIO...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW IS STREAKING EAST CAUSING RAPID DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITIES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO MY NORTHWESTERN AREAS BETWEEN ABOUT 05-08Z...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR OVER OUR HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS...LASTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
828 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE... BRIEFLY...ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF CORSON COUNTY RADAR PICKED UP A SMALL AREA OF 20DBZ RETURN. CEILINGS AT KHEI ARE AOA 10KFT...SO DOUBT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HAS BEEN ON AND OFF AGAIN INDICATING THIS WILL TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS THE ONLY SET OF GUIDANCE DOING SO. JUST IN CASE...PUT IN MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING QUICKLY SO DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS STALLS THE DROP. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SHOW THE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...THE WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER DISAPPEARING OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE CWA ONLY HAS FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND THIS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH/DISAPPEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WOULD AFFECT FORECAST TEMPERATURES. IF THE SNOW MELTS QUICKER...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MUCH OF THE WARMER AIR WILL BE OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE COOLER AIR BRINGING A STRONG INVERSION. WITH THE CWA BASICALLY BEING IN THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH. THUS...WITH THE STRONG INVERSION AND HIGHER RH...AND COOLING AT NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG/STRATUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS POINT TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WAA BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. THE ISSUE WILL BE IF IT WILL BE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. IF TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME ICING EAST IN THE CWA. HAVE IN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD STORM SYSTEM...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW...OR MIXED P-TYPE DEPENDING ON THERMAL PROGS...TO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL LIKELY FILTER INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ON THURSDAY. HIGHS BY THURSDAY COULD RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN NE SOUTH DAKOTA...TO THE LOWER 20S WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER CIGS TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CONNELLY SHORT TERM...MOHR LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...CONNELLY WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1005 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 913 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 PERSISTENT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP FROM AROUND EDGEMONT TO PINE RIDGE AND EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OR SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THIS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN END BY DAYBREAK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS FAR SWRN SD...PRIMARILY FALL RIVER AND SHANNON COUNTIES ALONG WITH FAR SRN CUSTER COUNTY. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW W TO E ORIENTED SNOW BANDS ACROSS THIS AREA AND LATE RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE ACCUMULATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL VERY NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT...BUT HAVE RAISED ACCUMS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 RADAR RETURNS SHOW SNOW IS A BIT MORE WDSPRD TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS SO HAVE EXPANDED/RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND WESTERN WY. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. KUDX RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE 40S OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... BRINGING AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO MOST AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST WY AND AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN SD...AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO NEB. 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH LATEST 18Z RUNS MOSTLY SHOW A SLIGHT TREND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE BACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR POURING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS BY MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...COLDEST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z...BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY. WILL GO WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. LOCAL 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL CO. ELSEWHERE...ZERO TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEENS FROM MUCH OF NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...MOST CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST CWA. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SNOW COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA. SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE REBUILDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 WDSPRD SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM NERN WY THROUGH SWRN SD...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ041-042. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...7 AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
925 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 913 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 PERSISTENT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP FROM AROUND EDGEMONT TO PINE RIDGE AND EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OR SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THIS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN END BY DAYBREAK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS FAR SWRN SD...PRIMARILY FALL RIVER AND SHANNON COUNTIES ALONG WITH FAR SRN CUSTER COUNTY. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW W TO E ORIENTED SNOW BANDS ACROSS THIS AREA AND LATE RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE ACCUMULATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL VERY NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT...BUT HAVE RAISED ACCUMS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 RADAR RETURNS SHOW SNOW IS A BIT MORE WDSPRD TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS SO HAVE EXPANDED/RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING THAT AREA. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND WESTERN WY. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. KUDX RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE 40S OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... BRINGING AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO MOST AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST WY AND AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN SD...AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO NEB. 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH LATEST 18Z RUNS MOSTLY SHOW A SLIGHT TREND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE BACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR POURING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS BY MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...COLDEST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z...BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY. WILL GO WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. LOCAL 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL CO. ELSEWHERE...ZERO TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEENS FROM MUCH OF NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...MOST CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST CWA. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SNOW COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA. SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE REBUILDS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 WDSPRD SNOW IS SPREADING FROM FAR NERN WY THROUGH MUCH OF WRN SD. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS FAR SWRN SD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ041-042. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...7 AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1146 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .AVIATION... STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NOW WITH A LAYER OF LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TRAILING RIGHT BEHIND. CEILINGS SHOULD TREND HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN...BUT THIS LIKELY WILL BE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT USING LATEST RAP13 AND WRF/NAM TRENDS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND MAY EVEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VFR DOMINATING AFTERWARDS. RMCQUEEN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX/ UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST WINDS THIS MORNING FOR A SWIFT-MOVING COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE. FROPA JUST OCCURRED AT GUY WITH N WINDS PEAKING AT 41 KNOTS. RECENT RUC IS ON TRACK WITH THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE JUST PAST NOON. SKY COVER WAS ALSO ADJUSTED ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLES FOR WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL STRATUS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. MCZ .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ RMCQUEEN
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 228 PM PST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A series of wet and mild storm systems will produce significant rains Thursday through the weekend. The mountains of north Idaho and the Cascades will likely receive several inches of rain by Monday. Some area rivers and streams will experience rises this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...VERY WET AND MILD WEATHER WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... Tonight...Tonight`s weather will revolve around the current warm frontal band of precipitation sliding into the region from the southwest. As of 2pm...the leading edge of the precipitation extended from Colville to Mullan and was slowly drifting northeast. Widespread light precipitation was occurring in concert with the front due to weak isentropic ascent. Precipitation from this will not be heavy as the ascent is relatively weak...however it will impact most locations of our forecast area. The precipitation type was rain across most valley locations...except for the Cascade Valleys...and the valleys of north-central Washington including the Okanogan. If and when these valleys change to rain is questionable. The model guidance suggests its just a matter of time, but suspect this is likely too optimistic as the mixing potential from this front is quite weak. Drier air associated with the warm sector of the strong offshore low will drift northward overnight and this should generally end the threat of measurable precipitation for a while this evening. Then round 2 comes in. Model guidance is quite variable on what parts of the forecast area will be impacted later tonight. Most of the guidance suggests the precipitation will be restricted to locations north of a line from Kellogg to Moses Lake...however the SREF suggests the entire forecast area will be impacted. Hard to say what will verify. The SREF has been trending wetter with successive runs and shouldn`t be ignored. We will raise pops accordingly across the southern zones...but will keep things in the chance category rather than the likely category as supported by the SREF. This bears watching. This second round will likely produce a little heavier precipitation as the lift is a bit greater combined with better moisture availability. Snow levels will rise slowly through the night as will surface temps (or at least remain steady)...so most of the snow will occur over the mountains. The exception could be over the Methow Valley, the northern Okanogan and locations near the Canadian Border. Snow amounts over these locations will potentially range from 1 to 2 inches. fx Thursday through Saturday night...This period encompasses the core of the upcoming series of sopping wet storm systems. Satellite imagery displays a deep trough off the Pacific coast directing a fire hose of moisture up it`s eastern flank and into the northwestern US. Models are in good agreement with the concept that this overall pattern will not change much over the next few days. The trough will fling periodic embedded waves and frontal complexes through the forecast area...all of them providing lift and focus for the unusually deep and persistent moisture feed. The general south/southwest trajectory of the flow will promote rising snow levels through the period with no significant cold fronts to bring them back down through Saturday. Thus...the forecast will consist of periods of steady light to occasionally moderate rain...interspersed with short relative break periods of simply occasional light rain. Throughout the storm train a persistent and occasionally strong southerly pressure gradient will bring breezy conditions to much of the exposed terrain especially over the eastern basin. Exposed locations such as the east basin rising terrain and Pomeroy/Camas Prairie areas will occasionally become very gusty during the afternoon and evening hours when mixing of stronger winds from aloft will be most likely. The well mixed air mass and southerly flow will also promote well above normal temperatures for the region. The only areas which may deviate from this pattern will be the Okanogan and Methow valleys and only during the first 24 hours (Thursday) where cold air will be delayed in scrubbing and initial precipitation will be snow...initially dry and becoming increasingly wet and slushy culminating in a change over the rain Thursday afternoon after perhaps 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation. By Friday morning everywhere below 6000 feet will likely experience rain. The higher mountain ranges above 6000 to 7000 feet may actually pick up substantial snow from this round of weather. Hydrology Concerns...The expected rain totals will be heaviest over the Idaho Panhandle and extreme northeast Washington as well as the Cascade Crest with amounts in excess of 2 inches over the next few days below expected snow levels. At this time as these amounts are incorporated into river flow models no mainstem rivers are forecast to achieve flood stage...but the forecast hydrographs have been trending higher over the last few runs. It is very possible that rivers draining the Central Idaho Panhandle mountains (the Coeur D`Alene and St. Joe basins in particular) may experience minor flooding by late this weekend. Since mid elevation snow pack is currently rather anemic...the contribution of melting snow to the mix will be less than usual and brings guarded confidence that there will be no major flooding issues to deal with. The other concerns are mainly localized minor mudslides and lowland/urban flooding from clogged culverts. A Hydrologic Statement has been updated to expound on these threats...but it is possible actual flood watches and warnings may be needed this weekend. /Fugazzi Sunday through Wednesday...Longwave ridge remains in the area and is oriented in such a way early on in the interval to steer storms with warm southwest to northeast trajectories of approach through the area. Indeed the atmospheric river influencing the earlier portion of the forecast is still in the vicinity and is feeding into the weather system expected to pass through late Sunday night and Monday so pops remain peaked in that period along with rather warm temperatures and robust warm southerly winds keep the snow levels high and allow rain to prevail as the precipitation type for all lowland and valley locations and up to past mid-slope on most northern mountains where a heavy wet snow or rain/snow mix will fall, which is not too dissimilar to what is called for earlier in the weekend. Behind the occluded frontal zone exit the precipitation becomes more showery so the atmosphere is expected to become somewhat conditionally unstable Monday night, hence the transition to showery wording and pops that decrease Monday night into Tuesday. The ridge narrows and amplifies Tuesday night and beyond which allows for substantial drying for most locations Tuesday night and for most of Wednesday. With the longwave ridge in place and an active storm track keeping precipitation and windy conditions at times in the forecast the forecast temperatures remain in the warm side of climo coupled with rather high snow levels. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Warm frontal precipitation will provide the main weather during most of this period. Cigs and vsbys will vary wildly between sites...with VFR and brief MVFR possible at LWS and PUW. Much poorer conditions(IFR-LIFR)will impact the remaining sites through at least 00z due to a combination of low clouds, fog and light precipitation. Most of the precip will fall as -ra except at EAT where it should remain primarily as -sn. Confidence in timing brief breaks or improvements at these sites is low. We should see a break in the weather during the evening...but not sure that will result in improving conditions as low stratus and fog could remain in place. Another round of rain will arrive toward the latter end of the forecast periods with conditions likely a little better than they currently are.fx && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 36 44 41 48 42 53 / 80 100 100 90 90 70 Coeur d`Alene 36 44 39 45 40 50 / 80 100 100 100 100 90 Pullman 39 49 43 51 45 54 / 30 100 80 90 80 70 Lewiston 41 52 44 54 46 60 / 30 90 80 90 70 50 Colville 33 40 38 43 40 49 / 90 100 100 100 90 90 Sandpoint 34 39 37 42 39 47 / 90 100 100 100 100 100 Kellogg 33 41 39 43 40 46 / 80 100 100 100 100 100 Moses Lake 38 45 42 52 43 55 / 50 80 70 80 70 40 Wenatchee 34 42 38 49 40 52 / 70 90 90 90 60 60 Omak 33 39 37 43 40 48 / 90 100 100 100 60 80 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 228 PM PST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A series of wet and mild storm systems will produce significant rains Thursday through the weekend. The mountains of north Idaho and the Cascades will likely receive several inches of rain by Monday. Some area rivers and streams will experience rises this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...VERY WET AND MILD WEATHER WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... Tonight...Tonight`s weather will revolve around the current warm frontal band of precipitation sliding into the region from the southwest. As of 2pm...the leading edge of the precipitation extended from Colville to Mullan and was slowly drifting northeast. Widespread light precipitation was occurring in concert with the front due to weak isentropic ascent. Precipitation from this will not be heavy as the ascent is relatively weak...however it will impact most locations of our forecast area. The precipitation type was rain across most valley locations...except for the Cascade Valleys...and the valleys of north-central Washington including the Okanogan. If and when these valleys change to rain is questionable. The model guidance suggests its just a matter of time, but suspect this is likely too optimistic as the mixing potential from this front is quite weak. Drier air associated with the warm sector of the strong offshore low will drift northward overnight and this should generally end the threat of measurable precipitation for a while this evening. Then round 2 comes in. Model guidance is quite variable on what parts of the forecast area will be impacted later tonight. Most of the guidance suggests the precipitation will be restricted to locations north of a line from Kellogg to Moses Lake...however the SREF suggests the entire forecast area will be impacted. Hard to say what will verify. The SREF has been trending wetter with successive runs and shouldn`t be ignored. We will raise pops accordingly across the southern zones...but will keep things in the chance category rather than the likely category as supported by the SREF. This bears watching. This second round will likely produce a little heavier precipitation as the lift is a bit greater combined with better moisture availability. Snow levels will rise slowly through the night as will surface temps (or at least remain steady)...so most of the snow will occur over the mountains. The exception could be over the Methow Valley, the northern Okanogan and locations near the Canadian Border. Snow amounts over these locations will potentially range from 1 to 2 inches. fx Thursday through Saturday night...This period encompasses the core of the upcoming series of sopping wet storm systems. Satellite imagery displays a deep trough off the Pacific coast directing a fire hose of moisture up it`s eastern flank and into the northwestern US. Models are in good agreement with the concept that this overall pattern will not change much over the next few days. The trough will fling periodic embedded waves and frontal complexes through the forecast area...all of them providing lift and focus for the unusually deep and persistent moisture feed. The general south/southwest trajectory of the flow will promote rising snow levels through the period with no significant cold fronts to bring them back down through Saturday. Thus...the forecast will consist of periods of steady light to occasionally moderate rain...interspersed with short relative break periods of simply occasional light rain. Throughout the storm train a persistent and occasionally strong southerly pressure gradient will bring breezy conditions to much of the exposed terrain especially over the eastern basin. Exposed locations such as the east basin rising terrain and Pomeroy/Camas Prairie areas will occasionally become very gusty during the afternoon and evening hours when mixing of stronger winds from aloft will be most likely. The well mixed air mass and southerly flow will also promote well above normal temperatures for the region. The only areas which may deviate from this pattern will be the Okanogan and Methow valleys and only during the first 24 hours (Thursday) where cold air will be delayed in scrubbing and initial precipitation will be snow...initially dry and becoming increasingly wet and slushy culminating in a change over the rain Thursday afternoon after perhaps 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation. By Friday morning everywhere below 6000 feet will likely experience rain. The higher mountain ranges above 6000 to 7000 feet may actually pick up substantial snow from this round of weather. Hydrology Concerns...The expected rain totals will be heaviest over the Idaho Panhandle and extreme northeast Washington as well as the Cascade Crest with amounts in excess of 2 inches over the next few days below expected snow levels. At this time as these amounts are incorporated into river flow models no mainstem rivers are forecast to achieve flood stage...but the forecast hydrographs have been trending higher over the last few runs. It is very possible that rivers draining the Central Idaho Panhandle mountains (the Coeur D`Alene and St. Joe basins in particular) may experience minor flooding by late this weekend. Since mid elevation snow pack is currently rather anemic...the contribution of melting snow to the mix will be less than usual and brings guarded confidence that there will be no major flooding issues to deal with. The other concerns are mainly localized minor mudslides and lowland/urban flooding from clogged culverts. A Hydrologic Statement has been updated to expound on these threats...but it is possible actual flood watches and warnings may be needed this weekend. /Fugazzi Sunday through Wednesday...Longwave ridge remains in the area and is oriented in such a way early on in the interval to steer storms with warm southwest to northeast trajectories of approach through the area. Indeed the atmospheric river influencing the earlier portion of the forecast is still in the vicinity and is feeding into the weather system expected to pass through late Sunday night and Monday so pops remain peaked in that period along with rather warm temperatures and robust warm southerly winds keep the snow levels high and allow rain to prevail as the precipitation type for all lowland and valley locations and up to past mid-slope on most northern mountains where a heavy wet snow or rain/snow mix will fall, which is not too dissimilar to what is called for earlier in the weekend. Behind the occluded frontal zone exit the precipitation becomes more showery so the atmosphere is expected to become somewhat conditionally unstable Monday night, hence the transition to showery wording and pops that decrease Monday night into Tuesday. The ridge narrows and amplifies Tuesday night and beyond which allows for substantial drying for most locations Tuesday night and for most of Wednesday. With the longwave ridge in place and an active storm track keeping precipitation and windy conditions at times in the forecast the forecast temperatures remain in the warm side of climo coupled with rather high snow levels. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Warm frontal precipitation will provide the main weather during most of this period. Cigs and vsbys will vary wildly between sites...with VFR and brief MVFR possible at LWS and PUW. Much poorer conditions(IFR-LIFR)will impact the remaining sites through at least 00z due to a combination of low clouds, fog and light precipitation. Most of the precip will fall as -ra except at EAT where it should remain primarily as -sn. Confidence in timing brief breaks or improvements at these sites is low. We should see a break in the weather during the evening...but not sure that will result in improving conditions as low stratus and fog could remain in place. Another round of rain will arrive toward the latter end of the forecast periods with conditions likely a little better than they currently are.fx && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 36 44 41 48 42 53 / 80 100 100 90 90 70 Coeur d`Alene 36 44 39 45 40 50 / 80 100 100 100 100 90 Pullman 39 49 43 51 45 54 / 30 100 80 90 80 70 Lewiston 41 52 44 54 46 60 / 30 90 80 90 70 50 Colville 33 40 38 43 40 49 / 90 100 100 100 90 90 Sandpoint 34 39 37 42 39 47 / 90 100 100 100 100 100 Kellogg 33 41 39 43 40 46 / 80 100 100 100 100 100 Moses Lake 38 45 42 52 43 55 / 50 80 70 80 70 40 Wenatchee 34 42 38 49 40 52 / 70 90 90 90 60 60 Omak 33 39 37 43 40 48 / 90 100 100 100 60 80 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1100 AM PST WED FEB 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain and mountain snow will accompany the passage of a warm front today. A series of wet and mild storm systems will produce more significant rains Thursday through the weekend. The mountains of north Idaho and the Cascades will likely receive several inches of rain by Monday. Some area rivers and streams will experience rises this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today...The main weather story for today will be the broad warm front sweeping in from the south-southwest. As of 10am...local radar imagery was showing a widespread swath of precipitation extending from all of western Washington to SE Washington and into central Idaho. The short-range HRRR is depicting this feature very well and we will follow its guidance. Isentropic ascent with good moisture advection will continue drift progressively northeast through the remainder of the day...resulting in widespread precipitation across most of the region. The precipitation will likely arrive over the northern tip of the Idaho Panhandle last and may actually hold off until early evening. Grids have been updated to reflect this timing. Although primarily rain is expected over most valley locations...things will be a little more complicated near the Cascades, Waterville Plateau, and Wenatchee area. Current temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s will lead to snow this morning however the fine-resolution model data suggests those temps will rise above freezing by afternoon. Based on cold air damming and limited mixing potential in those area we think the bulk of the precipitation will fall as snow. Despite that fact, the precipitation amounts will be light and road temperatures will likely remain above freezing over most locations. Consequently most of the snow accumulations are expected to occur over grassy areas and possibly secondary roads. QPF totals will generally be a tenth of an inch or less through the remainder of the day. fx && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Warm frontal precipitation will provide the main weather during most of this period. Cigs and vsbys will vary wildly between sites...with VFR and brief MVFR possible at LWS and PUW. Much poorer conditions(IFR-LIFR)will impact the remaining sites through at least 00z due to a combination of low clouds, fog and light precipitation. Most of the precip will fall as -ra except at EAT where it should remain primarily as -sn. Confidence in timing brief breaks or improvements at these sites is low. We should see a break in the weather during the evening...but not sure that will result in improving conditions as low stratus and fog could remain in place. Another round of rain will arrive toward the latter end of the forecast periods with conditions likely a little better than they currently are.fx && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 39 36 45 41 50 42 / 70 50 100 100 90 90 Coeur d`Alene 41 35 45 39 48 40 / 60 60 100 100 100 100 Pullman 45 40 50 43 52 45 / 80 10 100 80 90 80 Lewiston 45 42 54 44 56 46 / 70 10 90 80 90 70 Colville 36 35 40 38 43 40 / 50 60 100 100 100 90 Sandpoint 37 34 39 37 44 39 / 20 60 100 100 100 100 Kellogg 40 35 42 39 45 40 / 80 80 100 100 100 100 Moses Lake 41 36 46 42 54 43 / 80 30 80 70 80 70 Wenatchee 37 35 42 38 52 40 / 90 50 90 90 90 60 Omak 37 34 40 37 48 40 / 80 60 100 100 100 60 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 704 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND THE LOCAL RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. WHILE PORTIONS OF ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES COULD STILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF ACCUMULATION...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD EITHER BE PRECIPITATION FREE OR JUST HAVE FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS: 1. DIMINISHING SNOW THIS EVENING 2. SNOW...OR NOT...SOUTH OF I-90 ON WEDNESDAY 3. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NEED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON? CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING OUR AREA. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN THIS BAND. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS COLD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...DUE TO THE COLD START...FRESH SNOWPACK... CLOUDS...FALLING SNOW AND 925MB TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -14C RANGE. SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG I-80 IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH CAN BE SEEN OVER ALBERTA DROPPING SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 0 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO LITTLE CHANGE IS REQUIRED. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP SOME OF THE ADVISORIES EARLY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SNOW. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER 925MB AIR IS PROGGED TO ADVECT IN TO PLACE THAT MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WEAK OMEGA IS PROGGED IN THIS CLOUD DECK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. IN FACT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SO CONTINUED TO CARRY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACTUAL ACCUMULATING SNOW THERE. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...BUT THE ADVECTION OF COLDER 925MB AIR SHOULD STILL BRING READINGS DOWN INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND SNOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ZONE OCCURS BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE CURRENT WARM FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF I-70. 03.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS ZONE AND SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. 03.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO NOW DRY OUT NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. GIVEN THIS TREND IN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF...HAVE REMOVED THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT PICK UP SNOW...EXPECT FALLING LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DROPS SOUTH. 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM -12 TO -14C AT 12Z TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z. THE NORTH WINDS WHICH COULD GUST TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52...ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS COME IN ANY STRONGER. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE HWO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS... 1. CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS AND WIND CHILLS 2. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY 3. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND COLD ADVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -16 AND -20C...WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO 20 BELOW. WINDS DECOUPLING SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILL ADVISORY NEED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE TO GIVE SOME BREEZE. QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR. COULD SEE HIGHS REACH TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG I-90. A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN...WITH SOME TREND TO DROP IT FARTHER SOUTHWEST. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AND REQUIRING A MENTION OF 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94. THE WEEKEND IS PROVING MORE INTERESTING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH...POSSIBLY ONE POTENT ONE THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS SHOW A FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SETTING UP FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST IOWA AS WELL. AT A MINIMUM IT APPEARS AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT LOCATION IS STILL WELL UP IN THE AIR. COLDER...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MONDAY...RESULTING FROM DEEPER TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE COMING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015 MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT THAT THE VFR CONDITIONS THAT PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. COULD STILL BE SOME FLURRIES AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. ONCE THIS WAVE GOES BY...THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AND PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 03.15Z SREF HAD SHOWN A SMALL SIGNAL FOR SOME IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE BLOWING SNOW BUT THE 03.21Z SREF DID NOT HAVE THIS SIGNAL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS AS KRST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN WITH THE BLOWING SNOW ENDING AFTER SUNSET AS THE SUBSIDENCE DECREASES AND THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AS THE INVERSION FORMS TO CUT OFF THE MIXING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...04 SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 956 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OR THE NE COLORADO/SE WYOMING BORDER AS LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL DRIFTING. WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 425 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 110-KT WIND MAXIMA OVER SOUTHEAST WY. SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE AND WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CO. COMBINED LIFT FROM LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A PRONOUNCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE. IR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF AN INCH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROGS THIS BAND TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80... LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CREATED BLOWING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN FROM THE 30S AND 40S INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON NEAR SHORT TERM WITH SNOWFALL AND LATER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 00Z/06Z NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DECREASING BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FOR ALL BUT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES CAN EXPECT A FEW FEET OF SNOW...WITH A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE. AREAS SOUTH TOWARD THE CO BORDER WILL LIKELY MEASURE 3 TO 6 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MID MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TODAY. A CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN WY AND CO. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CRAIG-CASPER 700/850 MB GRADIENTS INCREASE ABOVE 50 MTRS TONIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE WINDY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND PRODUCE A MILD AND WINDY DAY WITH OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. PROGGED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING WEST WINDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY...EVEN MORE WINDY WITH SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB GRADIENTS INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED MILD BASED ON PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. SUNDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WITH LITTLE LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE. MONDAY...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT QUITE AS WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS. TUESDAY...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS AND COOLING DOWN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING) IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF I80...MAINLY OVER KCYS AND SOUTH OF KRWL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FURTHER EAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 00Z ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VIS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES... MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112- 114. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110- 115>119. NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ054- 055. && $$ UPDATE...SML SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1004 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 956 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OR THE NE COLORADO/SE WYOMING BORDER AS LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL DRIFTING. WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 425 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 110-KT WIND MAXIMA OVER SOUTHEAST WY. SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE AND WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CO. COMBINED LIFT FROM LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A PRONOUNCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE. IR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF AN INCH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROGS THIS BAND TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80... LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CREATED BLOWING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN FROM THE 30S AND 40S INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON NEAR SHORT TERM WITH SNOWFALL AND LATER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 00Z/06Z NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DECREASING BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FOR ALL BUT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES CAN EXPECT A FEW FEET OF SNOW...WITH A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE. AREAS SOUTH TOWARD THE CO BORDER WILL LIKELY MEASURE 3 TO 6 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MID MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TODAY. A CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN WY AND CO. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CRAIG-CASPER 700/850 MB GRADIENTS INCREASE ABOVE 50 MTRS TONIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE WINDY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND PRODUCE A MILD AND WINDY DAY WITH OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. PROGGED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING WEST WINDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY...EVEN MORE WINDY WITH SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB GRADIENTS INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED MILD BASED ON PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. SUNDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WITH LITTLE LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE. MONDAY...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT QUITE AS WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS. TUESDAY...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS AND COOLING DOWN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR TODAY IN SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED...AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES... MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112- 114. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110- 115>119. NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ054- 055. && $$ UPDATE...SML SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
430 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 425 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 110-KT WIND MAXIMA OVER SOUTHEAST WY. SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE AND WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CO. COMBINED LIFT FROM LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A PRONOUNCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE. IR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF AN INCH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROGS THIS BAND TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80... LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CREATED BLOWING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN FROM THE 30S AND 40S INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON NEAR SHORT TERM WITH SNOWFALL AND LATER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 00Z/06Z NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DECREASING BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FOR ALL BUT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES CAN EXPECT A FEW FEET OF SNOW...WITH A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE. AREAS SOUTH TOWARD THE CO BORDER WILL LIKELY MEASURE 3 TO 6 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MID MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TODAY. A CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN WY AND CO. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CRAIG-CASPER 700/850 MB GRADIENTS INCREASE ABOVE 50 MTRS TONIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE WINDY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND PRODUCE A MILD AND WINDY DAY WITH OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. PROGGED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING WEST WINDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY...EVEN MORE WINDY WITH SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB GRADIENTS INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED MILD BASED ON PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES. SUNDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WITH LITTLE LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE. MONDAY...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT QUITE AS WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS. TUESDAY...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS AND COOLING DOWN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR TODAY IN SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED...AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015 A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES... MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ102- 105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ101-103- 106>108. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110- 115>119. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112- 114. NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ002- 095. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ003- 019>021-096. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ054- 055. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1001 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 944 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 TWO BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWFA. FIRST ONE OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THE SECOND FROM THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE...TO WHEATLAND...SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS SECOND BAND IS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALL ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTHWESTERN WYOMING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 00Z GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE QPF LAYING ROUGHLY ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 12Z AND SLIGHTLY BEYOND. WITH QPFS WELL OVER A HALF INCH AND 20:1 RATIOS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PLATTE AND GOSHEN COUTHIES ARE GOING TO SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT. FAVORED AREA OF A 110KT JET AS WELL SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIFT. WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND IN AN EARLIER UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 239 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL SOME DECENT GUSTS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE SNOW EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SEVERAL MINOR RIPPLES OF ENERGY PASSING ACROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING WITH BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS AND EXPECTED SNOW PRODUCTION HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA. REST OF HILITES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH HAVE TRIMMED EXPIRATION TIME OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SNOW APPEARS TO BE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT FASTER NOW. SHOULD JUST BE SOME MTNS SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. SFC HIGH DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW PATTERN THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD BACK EAST THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND LEE TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME WINDINESS LOOKS TO RETURN AROUND THE SE WY MTNS THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 WEATHER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WEATHER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S EAST AND 30S WEST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS SHOWING A SOLID 50 TO 60 KTS OVER THESE AREAS AT 18Z. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND...SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS COULD STRETCH FARTHER EAST...SUCH AS INTO CHEYENNE. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A DECENT POSSIBILITY INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING NEAR AS COLD AS A FEW WEEKS AGO...BUT CERTAINLY BELOW NORMAL INTO MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 944 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 LATEST HRRR USED AS A GUIDE FOR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR...AND PREDOMINANTLY LIFR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING AFF IN THE AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 239 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015 CONCERNS TO REMAIN QUITE LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS THE ONLY FACTOR. SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE AREA INTO WEDS THEN A DRIER PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA AGAIN. WINDIER PATTERN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ102. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ101-103- 106>108. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110- 115>119. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114. NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ002-095. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ003- 019>021-096. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ054-055. && $$ UPDATE...GCC SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
352 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A VERY CHILLY START TO THIS FRIDAY AS ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR SERVICE AREA ARE BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THAT WITH A LIGHT WIND RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN POSTED AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR-MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH AN NOTICABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR...THIS WAVE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE LOWER POP VALUES TODAY. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A 1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION. TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA OVER ONTARIO. FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL SITES WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITY WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WHILE MOST THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. A LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AT 5-10 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT AROUND 3-4 KFT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...BUT BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES. WHILE THE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE CIGS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO REMAIN VFR...SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KPSF. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KALB...KGFL...AND KPOU. WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE...THE CIGS MAY START TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND REMAIN AT AROUND 5-10 KTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033- 038>040-042-043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082-084. MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL PLAINS...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BUT WELL BEHIND THE LEAD IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ON THURSDAY. A RATHER STRONG SECONDARY IMPULSE CAN BE SEEN PASSING OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SPREADING OFFSHORE IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND...AND HENCE...DESPITE ASSOCIATED GOOD QG FORCING OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THERE JUST IS NOT THE INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL...OR EVEN CLOUDS FOR THAT MATTER. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICIENCY WELL...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ABOVE 800MB. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS IMPULSE WILL ONLY SERVE TO DRIVE DOWN A SECONDARY MID LEVEL FRONT THROUGH THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL CAA ALOFT. SO WITH THE VERY DRY COLUMN...WE ARE LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND ONCE IT RISES...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FINDS ITSELF SOUTH OF A LARGE AREA OF 1030MB CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. THE LOCAL GRADIENT IS SUPPLYING A NORTH/NE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WITH WILL REMAIN STEADY TODAY WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN OUR DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY. BY SUNRISE WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...AND DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN TERMS OF ACTIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SECONDARY BUT GENERALLY HARMLESS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE EXITING OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST THIS MORNING LEAVING THE FL PENINSULA WITH A REGION OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. NO SYNOPTIC MECHANISMS FOR LIFT AND LITTLE COLUMN MOISTURE MEAN NO RAIN...AND THE GRIDS WILL CARRY 0% CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY THAT THE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONCE DIURNAL MIXING BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THE LATER MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. THE GUSTY NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TOWARD SUNSET AS DIURNAL MIXING SHUTS DOWN. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 60S AROUND LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND FINALLY LOWER 70S FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES TO START OUT THE DAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND SCT SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. THE MOISTURE UNDER 850MB LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE SCT CUMULUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES SETTLING SOUTHWARD REACHING SOUTHERN GA/AL BY DAWN. WITH THE AXIS GETTING SO CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...DO EXPECT SHELTERED LOCATIONS UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY TO BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE LATE AT NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE INVERTED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FROST FORMATION AFTER 4 AM...AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS FOR LEVY COUNTY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ELSEWHERE NO FROST CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 40 TRAVELING SOUTH TO BROOKSVILLE...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ONCE AGAIN...NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS OFF THE WATER. SATURDAY... SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUED TO SETTLE SOUTH AND TAKES UP RESIDENCY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST WILL SHOW A VERY PLEASANT AND QUIET DAY IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER THE COOL START TO THE MORNING. GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW A DECENT DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND INTO THE 70S FURTHER SOUTH. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MEAN A WEAKER GRADIENT AND A LESS GUSTY NATURE TO THE NE/E LOW LEVEL WINDS. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY EVERYONE...AND ENJOY THE FAVORABLE OUTDOOR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... SUN AND MON: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SLIDES OUT OVER THE U.S. PLAINS...WITH A GENERALLY DRY STABLE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW TRAILING A COLD FRONT... SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPENS WITH THE FRONT DROPPING IN ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND THE EAST GULF. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY ACROSS FL AND THE GULF FROM THE ATLANTIC SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS MON AND MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. TUE-THU: THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN FLATTENS OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN RESPONSE THE MID-ATLANTIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS INTO THE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SOME ROBUST WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS... SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WED...THEN MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT THEN RELAX AGAIN WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WELL. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS PROVIDING ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST OF THE MORNING AND HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT IN FAVOR OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. ANY BRIEF SURGE OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST MARINE AREAS TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND LEVY COUNTY FOR AN HOUR OR 2 OF SUB 35 PERCENT VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON. OF BIGGER CONCERN TO ANY WILDFIRE SPREAD WILL BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TOWARD SUNSET. CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER ANY ZONES TODAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LESS GUSTY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ANTICIPATED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 49 70 54 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 72 52 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 48 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 68 49 70 54 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 66 42 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 66 52 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
304 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .UPDATE... WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/. WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 319 PM CST THROUGH SATURDAY... PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. KMD && .LONG TERM... 319 PM CST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON THE TAIL END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * POSSIBLE LLVL WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500FT AGL BETWEEN 40-45KT THRU 11Z. * NO OTHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO SLIGTHLY SOUTHWESTERLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AROUND 8-10KFT AGL...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT AGL. KLOT VWP INDICATES SOME TARGETS AT 2KFT OF 40KT...HOWEVER BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED OR UNTIL AROUND 9-10Z. SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED WIND SHEAR UNTIL THAT TIME. VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OVER THE TAF SITES. WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...IT IS POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME MELTING SNOW PACK. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HEIGHT/SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF LLWS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE. SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS. MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE. MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. KJB && .MARINE... 134 AM CST HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE...AND NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25KT. EXPECT GUSTS TO BE STEADILY DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE HEADLINE TO EXPIRE AS WELL. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TODAY...HOWEVER WITH AN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE WINDS CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTH THEN EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING. FURTHER SOUTH FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SUN MORNING...WINDS THEN TURN NORTH AND INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT YET AGAIN. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST GUSTS SUN WILL BE AROUND 20-25KT...WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUN NGT INTO MON. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUE NGT/WED...WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
135 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .UPDATE... WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/. WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 319 PM CST THROUGH SATURDAY... PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. KMD && .LONG TERM... 319 PM CST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON THE TAIL END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * POSSIBLE LLVL WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500FT AGL BETWEEN 40-45KT THRU 09Z. * NO OTHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO SLIGTHLY SOUTHWESTERLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AROUND 8-10KFT AGL...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT AGL. KLOT VWP INDICATES SOME TARGETS AT 2KFT OF 40KT...HOWEVER BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED OR UNTIL AROUND 9-10Z. SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED WIND SHEAR UNTIL THAT TIME. VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OVER THE TAF SITES. WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...IT IS POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME MELTING SNOW PACK. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HEIGHT/SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF LLWS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE. SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS. MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE. MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. KJB && .MARINE... 134 AM CST HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE...AND NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25KT. EXPECT GUSTS TO BE STEADILY DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE HEADLINE TO EXPIRE AS WELL. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TODAY...HOWEVER WITH AN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE WINDS CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTH THEN EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING. FURTHER SOUTH FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SUN MORNING...WINDS THEN TURN NORTH AND INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT YET AGAIN. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST GUSTS SUN WILL BE AROUND 20-25KT...WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUN NGT INTO MON. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUE NGT/WED...WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1151 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE... WAS BRIEFED IT LIKELY WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE SHIFTS HAVING TO WATCH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CLOSELY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTED AND THAT HAS INDEED BEEN THE CASE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE KICKED IN...THEY ARE LIGHT AND SNOW COVER AND ITS ENHANCEMENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IS WINNING OUT...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP IN AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR. WITH ALREADY A COUPLE SPOTS AT OR BELOW ZERO...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED EARLY-MID EVENING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE FRESHEST SNOW COVER...HIGHLIGHTED NICELY THIS EVENING ON INFRARED IMAGERY. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF -3 TO -6 IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA /KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER TO FOWLER/. WHAT ADDS TO THE CHALLENGE IS THAT AN AREA OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS INCHING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL WITHIN GENTLE WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AROUND 750MB. THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO HAVE KEYED IN ON THIS WELL AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR SO OF THE CLOUDS MOVING OVER. WHILE LESS CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AGAIN...AND STILL COUNT ON THEM CLIMBING LATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 319 PM CST THROUGH SATURDAY... PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...THOUGH IT WAS DECEPTIVE AS HIGH TEMPS THUS FAR RANGED FROM NEAR 10 IN THE FAR WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS GETTING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO OUR WEST AND SWITCHING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WAVE TO THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE SO THE INCREASING SW WINDS AND ENSUING LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS AREA WIDE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SW FLOW TOMORROW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 20S OR SO UNDER MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS INCREASED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ATOP A DEEP SNOWPACK AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME WARMING IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS BETTER TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO A WEAK UPPER WAVE...THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD AT THIS POINT AS THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS SURGE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR 10C OR SO...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. 925 TEMPS ARE MUCH LOWER. EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AS EVEN THE GFS HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLASSIC STRATUS PROFILE WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEN A DEEP INVERSION. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...POSSIBLY A TOUCH WARMER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOIST AND WARM LOW LEVEL ADVECTION CONTINUES...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR FREEZING...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS LARGELY DRY...SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THIS SECONDARY WARM ADVECTION SURGE. DEPENDING ON TEMPS THIS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN BUT POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. KMD && .LONG TERM... 319 PM CST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM AT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THIS WILL DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS WOULD REMAIN AS RAIN SOUTH...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD. LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS CAN MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS VERY QUICKLY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...WE LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER MOISTURE...THUS WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ON THE TAIL END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. THERE IS ANOTHER SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ONE AS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETS UP. IF THESE TWO INTERACT THERE MAY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATER WEDNESDAY... A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. BEHIND THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A WEEK FROM TODAY LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * POSSIBLE LLVL WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500FT AGL BETWEEN 40-45KT THRU 09Z. * NO OTHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO SLIGTHLY SOUTHWESTERLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AROUND 8-10KFT AGL...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT AGL. KLOT VWP INDICATES SOME TARGETS AT 2KFT OF 40KT...HOWEVER BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED OR UNTIL AROUND 9-10Z. SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED WIND SHEAR UNTIL THAT TIME. VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SLIDE OVER THE TAF SITES. WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...IT IS POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME MELTING SNOW PACK. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HEIGHT/SPEEDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF LLWS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SATURDAY...PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE. SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS. MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE. MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. KJB && .MARINE... 200 PM CST IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WERE HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAIRLY QUICK RAMP-UP IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN JUST AS QUICKLY BY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO AROUND 15 KT OR SO BY SUNRISE. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK FRIDAY AS THE TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT... THEY WILL SWING AROUND IN DIRECTION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING PROPEL THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A TIME AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS LOW PASSES EAST LATE SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH WHILE WEAKENING AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LINGER DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1256 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 615 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS... WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED TO REFLECT FASTER ARRIVAL OF MID CLOUDS NOW COVERING MOST OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB IN MANY AREAS WITH NEARLY STEADY IF NOT SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST WILL SEE GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP SO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING WARM AND JUST A FEW DEGREES UNDER AFTERNOON TEMPS. ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. HIRES RUC AND HRRR SURFACE TEMPS EVEN COLDER WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z WITH RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY BUT OFTEN THESE HIRES MODELS CAN BE ON THE EXTREME SIDE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE TEENS LATER TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO STILL LIMIT REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SOMEWHAT. MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LIKELY INTO THE 20S. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 FLATTER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH POLAR JET AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPS AND OVERALL FEEL WILL LIKELY TO BE PLAGUED BY LOW STRATUS (ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST) AS WAA ALOFT AND SNOW MELT HELPS LOCK IN MOISTURE WITHIN SHALLOW INVERSION. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN APPEAR LOW THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF MORE FOCUSED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP NORTH OF THE IWX CWA. HOWEVER...ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SHALLOW/MOIST NEAR SFC LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT ICING FAR NE IN/FAR NW OH/LOWER MI INTO SUNDAY). A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO FORCE A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE (AGAIN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA ENSUES WITHIN PIVOTING DEFORMATION. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY POPS GIVEN LINGERING MODEL SPREAD AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...COOLER/DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RENEWED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 VFR CLOUD DECK HAS OVERSPREAD BOTH TAF SITES AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE IN BEHIND AS A WARM FROM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT REMAIN BELOW LLWS THRESHOLDS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FISHER SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...FISHER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
243 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE). DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON MONDAY...BOTH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO CARRY BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE NW PACIFIC COASTAL AREA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH SETTLES OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE SE OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY MOSTLY DRY COMING THRU AREA WITH ONLY STRONG RIDGING BEHIND BOUNDARY GIVING ESE FLOW INTO NW ZONES AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC QPF. SHORTWAVE DOES WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEAVING CWA...BUT DOES TAP INTO MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HAVE PUT IN MENTION OF RW/SW MIX BEFORE 06Z WED...AND AFTER 18Z WED BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH BEFORE CHANGEOVER WITH ARRIVAL OF CAA AND SURFACE RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT THURSDAY WITH CHANCE FOR FROPA LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO COME THRU DRY DUE TO RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...BLOCKING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FEED INTO CWA. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN ALMOST 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND REBOUNDING FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT DRY FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A RESULT OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 200-500 FT AGL CONTINUES ACCORDING TO WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE. LLWS SHOULD PERSIST TO AROUND 10-11Z WHEN THE JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE REGION CLEARS THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TODAY. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS. CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 6)... GOODLAND.....73 (2009) MCCOOK.......75 (2009) BURLINGTON...71 (2009) HILL CITY....79 (2009) COLBY........73 (1963) TRIBUNE......71 (1999) YUMA.........69 (1963) CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)... GOODLAND.....74 (1987) MCCOOK.......72 (1996) BURLINGTON...72 (1987) HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........76 (2009) TRIBUNE......75 (1943) YUMA.........70 (1987) CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS... GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962) HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........83 (02-12-1911) TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981) YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...RRH CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
905 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE... ITS BEEN ALL ABOUT THE WIND THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG GUSTS AT ROSCOE (60 MPH) AND JUST ABOVE RED LODGE (TIMBERCREST 64 MPH). OTHER LOCATIONS ARE STILL WINDY SUCH AS FISHTAIL WITH OVER 50 MPH GUSTS. I AM NOT RULING OUT A STRONG GUST GETTING DOWN INTO RED LODGE YET THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 10 PM AS DOWNWARD MOTION LETS UP A BIT. HAVE EDITED THE WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND THAN WHAT I INHERITED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOOKING AT WRF CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NEWEST RUN...THERE SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER GOOD PUSH OF WIND INTO THE FOOTHILLS TOMORROW...POSSIBLY BETTER THAN THIS EVENINGS. THERE IS ALSO A VERY FAVORABLE CRITICAL LAYER INVOLVED. SO STRONG OR EVEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM A MOUNTAIN WAVE ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. BT && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT... A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN WITH STRONG FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN BILLINGS WHERE A SOUTHERLY CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE HAS KEPT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN AND THUS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AT 1PM. AS WITH LAST NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE SOME WARMING THIS EVENING AS AREAS THAT HAVE NOT MIXED TO A STRONGER AND MORE WESTERLY WIND SHOULD...ONCE THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG IN THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE VICINITIES. CURRENTLY SEEING PERIODIC GUSTS TO 58 MPH IN LIVINGSTON. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE TO DEVELOP EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS 70-80KT 700MB WINDS PUSH THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS THAT NORMALLY SEE LITTLE WIND INCLUDING RED LODGE AN SHERIDAN. INCREASED WINDS IN THESE LOCATIONS TO GET SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE FORECAST. LATEST RUC SOUNDING FOR SHERIDAN SHOWS A PLUG OF 50 TO 60KT WINDS AT 900 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE SHERIDANS ELEVATION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD PUSH DOWN INTO SHERIDAN (AS WELL AS RED LODGE) BUT IT MAY ALSO HANG UP IN THE FOOTHILLS JUST ABOVE THE CITY ELEVATION. THESE MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO PREDICT AND TEND TO HAVE A HIGH FALSE ALARM RATE. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT NOT GOING TO THE FULL POTENTIAL THE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED. EVENING SHIFT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND ISSUE HIGHLITES IF NECESSARY. THOSE LIVING IN THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS WIND POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS ON THEIR PROPERTY JUST IN CASE. FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME STRONG FOOTHILLS WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE SPREADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH RECORD TERRITORY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. YET ANOTHER WIND PRODUCING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING LIVINGSTON TO NYE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON AS WELL AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE LOCATIONS TO JUST UNDER ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMPLICATE DYNAMICS THAT WOULD NORMALLY POINT TO THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON CORRIDOR. THUS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WIND HIGHLITES FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL A BIT CLOSER TO THE STRONG WINDS ARRIVING...BUT IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT WILL LIKELY NEED THEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE GENERATED STRONG WINDS SETTLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND PUSHING WELL OUT INTO THE PLAINS AS VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO WORK DOWN AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT FRONT JET DYNAMICS COMBINE TO ADD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD VERY CLOSELY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS TO SET THE TABLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...A GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE MOUNTAINS (WEST FACING SLOPES) AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS WITH ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. IN SUMMARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO BE WIND AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. IF YOU LIVE NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS BE AWARE OF THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU... MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE TROF OFF THE PAC COAST AND COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH WOULD CAUSE STRONGER MIXING AND WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW NO SUCH FEATURE ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT MIXING. PAC TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ALLOWING FOR HEIGHT FALLS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OUR WESTERN MTNS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW HERE AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS. THOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY WILLS SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN MT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS COOLING TREND...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ITS MAGNITUDE. THE GFS SHOWS A COLD 1050+ MB HIGH SLIDING INTO ND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH AND THUS NOT NEARLY AS COLD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TEMPS TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...SO MUST STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS THAT OF COOLING SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS DOWN SOME ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EAST HALF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ACTUALLY SHOULD START SEEING A WARMING TREND AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...NOT SEEING ANYTHING DYNAMIC BUT ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. SHOULD SEE DRYING FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. JKL && .AVIATION... GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS W OF KBIL TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. WINDS GUSTS AT KLVM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 50 KT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OVER KMLS AND KSHR. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. ARTHUR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 038/060 044/062 038/058 035/054 037/050 026/040 027/046 00/N 01/N 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B LVM 043/061 052/059 042/055 035/052 037/050 025/041 028/051 00/N 12/W 12/W 12/W 32/W 21/B 11/B HDN 033/056 037/058 033/056 029/054 032/050 022/041 023/043 00/B 01/B 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B MLS 030/053 038/056 034/054 030/050 031/044 019/036 017/039 00/B 02/W 21/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 01/B 4BQ 034/061 041/060 035/058 032/057 034/050 021/038 021/045 00/B 02/W 11/B 00/U 22/W 21/B 11/B BHK 030/054 038/056 034/052 027/048 029/043 018/032 013/037 00/B 02/W 21/B 01/U 22/W 11/B 00/B SHR 032/060 038/059 033/057 028/055 028/050 022/041 020/045 00/B 01/N 11/B 00/B 22/W 31/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
442 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE... THIS UPDATE DISCUSSION IS AIMED AT OUR MEDIA PARTNERS. WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. WE BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE OF VERY STRONG WINDS IMPACTING THE RED LODGE VICINITY DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY IS ALWAYS HIGH WITH THESE TYPE OF EVENTS...SO WE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WE WOULD APPRECIATE A SHOUT OUT TO HELP US INFORM RED LODGE RESIDENTS AND THOSE NEARBY OF HIGH WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE GUSTS NEAR 75 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AROUND MID MOUNTAIN LEVELS AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF RED LODGE. WE BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS BETWEEN 730 PM AND 1030 PM...BUT IT COULD OCCUR OUTSIDE THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH THE EVENING. BT && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI... A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN WITH STRONG FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN BILLINGS WHERE A SOUTHERLY CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE HAS KEPT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN AND THUS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AT 1PM. AS WITH LAST NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE SOME WARMING THIS EVENING AS AREAS THAT HAVE NOT MIXED TO A STRONGER AND MORE WESTERLY WIND SHOULD...ONCE THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG IN THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE VICINITIES. CURRENTLY SEEING PERIODIC GUSTS TO 58 MPH IN LIVINGSTON. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE TO DEVELOP EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS 70-80KT 700MB WINDS PUSH THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS THAT NORMALLY SEE LITTLE WIND INCLUDING RED LODGE AN SHERIDAN. INCREASED WINDS IN THESE LOCATIONS TO GET SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE FORECAST. LATEST RUC SOUNDING FOR SHERIDAN SHOWS A PLUG OF 50 TO 60KT WINDS AT 900 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE SHERIDANS ELEVATION. ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD PUSH DOWN INTO SHERIDAN (AS WELL AS RED LODGE) BUT IT MAY ALSO HANG UP IN THE FOOTHILLS JUST ABOVE THE CITY ELEVATION. THESE MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO PREDICT AND TEND TO HAVE A HIGH FALSE ALARM RATE. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT NOT GOING TO THE FULL POTENTIAL THE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED. EVENING SHIFT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND ISSUE HIGHLITES IF NECESSARY. THOSE LIVING IN THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS WIND POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS ON THEIR PROPERTY JUST IN CASE. FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME STRONG FOOTHILLS WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE SPREADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH RECORD TERRITORY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. YET ANOTHER WIND PRODUCING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING LIVINGSTON TO NYE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON AS WELL AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE LOCATIONS TO JUST UNDER ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMPLICATE DYNAMICS THAT WOULD NORMALLY POINT TO THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON CORRIDOR. THUS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WIND HIGHLITES FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL A BIT CLOSER TO THE STRONG WINDS ARRIVING...BUT IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT WILL LIKELY NEED THEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE GENERATED STRONG WINDS SETTLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND PUSHING WELL OUT INTO THE PLAINS AS VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO WORK DOWN AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT FRONT JET DYNAMICS COMBINE TO ADD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD VERY CLOSELY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS TO SET THE TABLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...A GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE MOUNTAINS (WEST FACING SLOPES) AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS WITH ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. IN SUMMARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO BE WIND AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. IF YOU LIVE NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS BE AWARE OF THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE TROF OFF THE PAC COAST AND COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH WOULD CAUSE STRONGER MIXING AND WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW NO SUCH FEATURE ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT MIXING. PAC TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ALLOWING FOR HEIGHT FALLS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OUR WESTERN MTNS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW HERE AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS. THOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY WILLS SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN MT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS COOLING TREND...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ITS MAGNITUDE. THE GFS SHOWS A COLD 1050+ MB HIGH SLIDING INTO ND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH AND THUS NOT NEARLY AS COLD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TEMPS TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...SO MUST STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS THAT OF COOLING SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS DOWN SOME ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EAST HALF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ACTUALLY SHOULD START SEEING A WARMING TREND AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...NOT SEEING ANYTHING DYNAMIC BUT ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. SHOULD SEE DRYING FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. JKL && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL GUST FROM 40-55 KTS AT KLVM AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 050 038/060 044/062 038/058 035/054 037/050 026/040 1/N 00/N 01/N 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B LVM 054 043/061 052/059 042/055 035/052 037/050 025/041 1/N 00/N 12/W 12/W 12/W 32/W 21/B HDN 048 033/056 037/058 033/056 029/054 032/050 022/041 1/E 00/B 01/B 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B MLS 043 030/053 038/056 034/054 030/050 031/044 019/036 1/E 00/B 02/W 21/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 4BQ 049 034/061 041/060 035/058 032/057 034/050 021/038 1/E 00/B 02/W 11/B 00/U 22/W 21/B BHK 044 030/054 038/056 034/052 027/048 029/043 018/032 1/E 00/B 02/W 21/B 01/U 22/W 11/B SHR 051 032/060 038/059 033/057 028/055 028/050 022/041 1/E 00/B 01/N 11/B 00/B 22/W 31/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
329 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST. PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KISN/KMOT/KJMS BETWEEN 12-15Z FRIDAY. FOG POSSIBLE AT KMOT WITH VSBYS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 13Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KDIK/KBIS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
328 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF A WAURIKA TO SEMINOLE LINE IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS VERIFY...THOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY...+14 TO +19C...HOWEVER LINGERING SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO MODIFY...ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. REGARDLESS...WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS THINKING DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING THAN LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED. COOLEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA TO NEAR 80 NEAR GAGE AND WOODWARD. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE OFF BY MORE THAN 5 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG. THINK SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL GET ABOVE 80 DEGREES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH NO COLD AIR NORTH OF THE TROUGH. INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEAR RECORD WARMTH MAY AGAIN OCCUR. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT BE AS WARM COMPARED TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. MBS && .FIRE WEATHER... WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CLINTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY. HELD OFF WITH A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS NOT SURE ABOUT SURFACE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT CLOSELY MONITOR. THERE IS A CHANCE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO INCREASING NORTH WINDS. && .CLIMATE... WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HERE ARE THE RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. TODAY FEBRUARY 6 OKLAHOMA CITY...73 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 2009 WICHITA FALLS...83 DEGREES...SET IN 1950 SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7 OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937 WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950 SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8 OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999 WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 70 40 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 77 31 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 70 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 58 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 06/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AT ALL SITES AROUND 15Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ UPDATE... MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO MIN TEMPS AND SKY COVER. LOW CLOUDS IN SE THIRD OF FA CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH THIS EVENING AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A BIT OF A NORTHWARD PUSH IN SOME AREAS. MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS BEFORE FINALLY SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING. RAP HOLDS THESE CLOUDS IN LONGER THAN THE NAM AND WITH HOW TOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE HANGING IN WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER TREND OF THE RAP SO HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PART OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA WHICH THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SO UNSURE HOW FAR INTO THE FA THESE CLOUDS WILL GO. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MIN TEMPS. WHERE AND HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SOME AREAS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AND THE HIGH CLOUDS... DEPENDING ON HOW THICK... COULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING IN SOME AREAS. KEPT LOW TEMPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME IN SE PARTS OF FA WHERE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BUT LOWERED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES ELSEWHERE SINCE MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS HAD CURRENT TEMPS NEAR THE FORECASTED LOWS. UPDATES OUT SOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM TODAY...WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY...AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SHORT ORDER BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF 65 TO 75 DEGREES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...HUMIDITIES LOOK A BIT MARGINAL FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. REGARDLESS...BE VERY CAUTIOUS AND MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BURN TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. THIS WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OR LESS POPS...WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AUSTIN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 67 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 30 70 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 30 71 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 32 76 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 27 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 32 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/26/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
858 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015 .DISCUSSION...A MAJOR STORM IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 60 MPH IN KLAMATH FALLS...WEED...AND AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ADDED THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING PRODUCT...AND THIS WARNING AREA MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER TO OTHER EAST SIDE AREAS AS DATA IS EXAMINED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GET EVEN STRONGER...PEAKING AT THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND AT INLAND AREAS LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS STARTING TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS...WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING IN INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM COASTAL AND POTENTIALLY EAST SIDE RIVER FLOODING TO LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS...TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THERE ARE A HOST OF PRODUCTS THAT HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS...AND PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT THE HAZARD PRODUCTS ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD. && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 06/00Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL 4 OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 50-60 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AT TIMES. EAST OF THE CASCADES SOME HIGHER LEVEL WINDS OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS MAY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS, TONIGHT AND INCREASINGLY SO BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO EAST SIDE TERMINALS. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, INCLUDING KMFR ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE WITH STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE. AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO THE COAST RANGE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. INLAND...ALSO EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, INCLUDING KMHS. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. /CC && .MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PST THURSDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2015....A SERIES OF STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT WITH STRONG GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 18 TO 22 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTS WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL GALES. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, MODELS SHOW A STRONG LOW APPROACHING THE WATERS FRONT THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG GALE TO STORM EVENT. VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL VERY STEEP SEAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. /CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015/ DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MOUNT SHASTA REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO TOWARDS GOLD BEACH, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OF BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NEAR 130W WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, HEADLANDS AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS. BELOW, WE`LL ADDRESS THE RAIN AND WIND IMPACT. RAIN: MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTH COAST, COAST RANGE, WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THE HARDEST. THE WPC QPF FORECAST IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC, BUT THEY SHOW HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW, THUS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES. FORECASTED RAIN TOTAL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE AS FOLLOWS: 5-8 INCHES FOR THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WITH PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW...DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT TOTALS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY IN THESE AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY BUT TOTALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT WITH 1.50 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND 0.25 TO AN INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH JUST NEAR CHILOQUIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN/SOUTH SISKIYOU COUNTY. FLOOD CONCERNS STILL EXIST, THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN SCARS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. DETAILS FOR ALL OF THE PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT FFAMFR. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OT FRIDAY IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FLOODING WILL OCCUR. OF NOTE, THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND IT SUGGEST THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WILL COME IN TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT EAST WITH OFF/ON RAIN BEHIND IT LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN QPF AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. -PETRUCELLI WIND...THE SHASTA VALLEY IS ALREADY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND OF SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY LIKELY TO SEE SUSTAINED 40 TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. BY FRIDAY MORNING EVEN THE YREKA AREA COULD SEE SUSTAINED WIND 35 TO 45 MPH. THE LATEST SATELLITE WIND READING SHOWS 45 MPH WINDS NEAR CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATION NEAR THE CAPE. WITH BUOY 15 OFF PORT ORFORD EXPERIENCING WIND GUST TO 55 MPH..EXPECT COASTAL JET TO BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVERNIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF COOS BAY THROUGH CAPE BLANCO INTO PORT ORFORD AND GOLD BEACH. WINDS SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH. IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 70 MPH. TRAFFIC ALONG HWY 140 COULD BE AFFECTED ESPECIALLY DURING THE STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY THAT IS EXPOSED. THIS WILL BE MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONG WINDS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR MEDFORD AIRPORT SHOWS WE COULD SEE WIND GUST TO 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS GUST SPEED IS LOWER THAN THE CUSTOMARY HIGH WIND CRITERIA..BECAUSE THE GUST IS EXPECTED IN THE POPULATED AREA WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING TO ERROR ON THE SAFE SIDE. /FB A DRYING TREND IS STILL IN THE WORKS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET, BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031-625. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ624. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022-615-618-619. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021>024-028-615-616-618-619. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-022-615-618-619. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ027-028-617-621. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026-617-622. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ026-620-622-623. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ620-621. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ026. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ029. CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080>083-085-280>282-284-285. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CAZ080-081-280-281. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-284. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ NSK/FJB/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
940 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND GENERALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...COOLEST GENERALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ANY SNOW COVERED AREAS ON THE PLAINS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...THOUGH STARTING TO PICK UP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS...INCLUDING RAPID CITY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL AS HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS AND FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE RAP AIRPORT RECORD HIGH IS 62...WHILE DOWNTOWN RAP IS 66. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY OVER NORTHEAST WY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW/LOW TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR -SHRASN TUESDAY. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES WITH DISPOSITION OF ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...GFS COLDEST...ECMWF WARMEST. HAVE SPLIT FORECAST DOWN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 938 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...HELGESON AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY... PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID 60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL LIQUID...FOR NOW. 82/JLD && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1116 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT COULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WESTERN TERMINALS...SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT IT WILL CLEAR KDFW...KGKY...KDAL OR KACT UNTIL 12 OR 13Z. HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT EVEN CLEAR KFTW/KAFW BEFORE 12Z. WHEREVER IT DOES CLEAR...AND THERE IS A SMALL T/DP SPREAD...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WILL BE HIGH AND THUS FOG DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE CLEARING LINE. IF FOG FORMS...IT COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THIS ISSUANCE...DECIDED ON 3SM BR AT KFTW/KAFW...5SM BR AT KACT AND A GENERAL 6SM BR AT THE OTHER METROPLEX TERMINALS. WE ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT COME MID MORNING /15Z/ ALL TERMINALS WILL CLEAR WITH SKC-SCT250 CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. KACT REMAINS IN NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT FLOW...BUT WILL VEER BY 11Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 7-13 KNOTS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TAKES CONTROL OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. 75 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 43 76 52 73 / 0 5 5 10 10 WACO, TX 59 41 74 52 74 / 0 5 5 10 10 PARIS, TX 54 40 71 49 70 / 0 5 5 20 20 DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 5 5 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 57 42 75 50 71 / 0 5 5 10 10 DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 10 10 TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 5 5 20 20 CORSICANA, TX 56 43 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 20 20 TEMPLE, TX 59 41 73 52 76 / 0 5 5 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS... 1. TEMPERATURES GIVEN SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AIR ALOFT COMING IN 2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES 3. FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.3-0.4 INCHES PER RAP ANALYSIS. A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 WHERE READINGS WERE 0.5- 0.6 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN BOTH AREAS WAS CENTERED AT OR ABOVE 600MB...THOUGH...AS INDICATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE DRIER AIR BELOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW WAS EVIDENT COMING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SHORTWAVE. THIS SNOW WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 WEST OF I-29 BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED. TEMPERATURE WISE...QUITE THE CONTRAST EXISTS AT 925MB ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WAS A PLUME OF 5-15C READINGS RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE ACROSS MT...WY...SD AND NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS AIR HAS BEEN HEADING OUR WAY AS OUR READINGS ARE NOW UP TO -3 TO -7C. AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...REFLECTING THAT WARMER AIR COMING IN. FINALLY IN NORTHERN ND AND MN...READINGS WERE -10 TO -15C HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SNOW THERE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE WARMING TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK NORTH OF I-70...AND IN MANY SPOTS DEEP...WILL PREVENT MIXING TO 850MB. WE MIGHT MIX TO 925MB...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE MORE TREES EXIST...TO ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE REAL INTERESTING TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO WARM ADVECT AT 850MB AND 925MB...REACHING -4C EAST TO +4C WEST AT 925MB BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING IN MANY SPOTS...AND WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS. THAT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA PRODUCING THE SNOW IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO TRACK INTO UPPER MI BY 18Z. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE BULK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADAR ECHOES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AS VIRGA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. HERE TOO...THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW GIVEN PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS ARE NOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT...THE WARM NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD ALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. LASTLY FOG POTENTIAL. WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW AT 925MB...ITS HARD TO SEE MUCH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART EVEN WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE OF THE COLD EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. MUCH OF TODAYS WARMING WILL PROBABLY GO INTO WARMING THE SNOWPACK VERSUS RELEASING MOISTURE FROM IT. THUS...BELIEVE THE FOG CONCERN IS LOW AND TRIMMED IT TO MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COME IN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGHLIGHTSCONCERNS... 1. WILL IT PRECIPITATE AT ALL THIS WEEKEND? IF SO WHAT TYPE. 2. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 3. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT 4. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY A LOT HAS CHANGED MODEL WISE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 3 DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND TO MOSTLY END UP DRY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF. EVEN THE 06.00Z NAM WAITS UNTIL A BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT THATS IT. WHATS HAPPENED IS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE AND MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE AREA...PRIMARILY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS HARD TO COME BY. THE BIGGEST THING WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT...WHICH IS A BIG IF GIVEN THAT THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GULF OF MEXICO RETURN IS POINTED MORE TOWARDS ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND QUESTIONS ON MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WEAK FORCING...FIGURE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPES. REGARDING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES...925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4C WARMER ON SATURDAY...SO ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUN WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...40S ARE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AS SUGGESTED BY 06.00Z MAV/MET/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF GUIDANCE. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA UP. 30S SEEM LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ALBEDO WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY 20S OVER TAYLOR COUNTY INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS TAKE THEIR SWEET TIME COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION COMES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH FORMS PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR THIS. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT IN LATER FORECASTS WHICH COULD MODULATE THE EXPECTED SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER 925MB AIR FLOWS IN. THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY...WITH COOLING CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ABOUT HOW MUCH COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE ROBUST AND POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WORTHY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEAR DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY TURN TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT CAN RETURN BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...THIS WAVE SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
945 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHORT WAVE TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY EXIT THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE LOWER POP VALUES TODAY. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A 1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION. TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ARE GENERALLY BKN AROUND 4-5 KFT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL START OFF CALM...THEY LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT THE W-SW AT 5-10 KTS BY LATER THIS MORNING. EVEN LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT AROUND 3-4 KFT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...BUT BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES. WHILE THE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE CIGS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO REMAIN VFR...SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KPSF. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KALB...KGFL...AND KPOU. WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE...THE CIGS MAY START TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND REMAIN AT AROUND 5-10 KTS INTO TONIGHT. ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THOUGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS MORE BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
620 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A VERY CHILLY START TO THIS FRIDAY AS ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR SERVICE AREA ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. COMBINE THAT WITH A LIGHT WIND RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES COLDER. CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN POSTED AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR-MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH AN NOTICABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR...THIS WAVE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE LOWER POP VALUES TODAY. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A 1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION. TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ARE GENERALLY BKN AROUND 4-5 KFT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL START OFF CALM...THEY LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT THE W-SW AT 5-10 KTS BY LATER THIS MORNING. EVEN LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT AROUND 3-4 KFT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...BUT BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES. WHILE THE VALLEY SITES MAY SEE CIGS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO REMAIN VFR...SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KPSF. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KALB...KGFL...AND KPOU. WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE...THE CIGS MAY START TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND REMAIN AT AROUND 5-10 KTS INTO TONIGHT. ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THOUGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS MORE BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033- 038>040-042-043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082-084. MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
415 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE). DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON MONDAY...BOTH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO CARRY BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE NW PACIFIC COASTAL AREA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH SETTLES OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE SE OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY MOSTLY DRY COMING THRU AREA WITH ONLY STRONG RIDGING BEHIND BOUNDARY GIVING ESE FLOW INTO NW ZONES AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC QPF. SHORTWAVE DOES WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEAVING CWA...BUT DOES TAP INTO MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HAVE PUT IN MENTION OF RW/SW MIX BEFORE 06Z WED...AND AFTER 18Z WED BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH BEFORE CHANGEOVER WITH ARRIVAL OF CAA AND SURFACE RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT THURSDAY WITH CHANCE FOR FROPA LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO COME THRU DRY DUE TO RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...BLOCKING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FEED INTO CWA. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN ALMOST 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND REBOUNDING FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT DRY FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 415 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS (20-30 KFT AGL). WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT WITH PREVAILING DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS. CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 6)... GOODLAND.....73 (2009) MCCOOK.......75 (2009) BURLINGTON...71 (2009) HILL CITY....79 (2009) COLBY........73 (1963) TRIBUNE......71 (1999) YUMA.........69 (1963) CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)... GOODLAND.....74 (1987) MCCOOK.......72 (1996) BURLINGTON...72 (1987) HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........76 (2009) TRIBUNE......75 (1943) YUMA.........70 (1987) CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS... GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962) HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........83 (02-12-1911) TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981) YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...DR CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 949 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 THE CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1530 UTC. THE 12 THROUGH 14 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS BUILD THIS DECK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...INTO THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA AS EARLY AS 18 TO 20 UTC...AND ENCROACHING ON WILLISTON LATER TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH THE BUILD DOWN OF THE STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SUNSHINE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST. PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 1Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 948 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING KMOT AND KJMS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING KBIS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND KISN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST. PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KMOT/KJMS BETWEEN 14-16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMOT WITH VSBYS AROUND 6SM. KISN AND KMOT HAVE A VCSH MENTION AS A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
532 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 14-17Z...THEN DIMINISH AROUND 00Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF KEND-KHBR AFTER 00Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. KEPT AMD NOT SKED AT KHBR. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF A WAURIKA TO SEMINOLE LINE IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS VERIFY...THOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY...+14 TO +19C...HOWEVER LINGERING SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO MODIFY...ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. REGARDLESS...WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS THINKING DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING THAN LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED. COOLEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA TO NEAR 80 NEAR GAGE AND WOODWARD. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE OFF BY MORE THAN 5 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG. THINK SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL GET ABOVE 80 DEGREES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH NO COLD AIR NORTH OF THE TROUGH. INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEAR RECORD WARMTH MAY AGAIN OCCUR. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT BE AS WARM COMPARED TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. MBS FIRE WEATHER... WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CLINTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY. HELD OFF WITH A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS NOT SURE ABOUT SURFACE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT CLOSELY MONITOR. THERE IS A CHANCE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO INCREASING NORTH WINDS. CLIMATE... WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HERE ARE THE RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. TODAY FEBRUARY 6 OKLAHOMA CITY...73 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 2009 WICHITA FALLS...83 DEGREES...SET IN 1950 SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7 OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937 WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950 SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8 OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999 WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 70 40 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 77 31 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 70 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 58 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 06/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
914 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD BUT DID MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST CLOUD COVER FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HAVE UPDATED TONIGHT/S FORECAST TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2SM. TR.92 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ CHALLENGES OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE FORECAST...AS CURRENT CIGS LOWER THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BEFORE MIDDAY. ANY TIMING OF CIGS GOING TO HIGH MVFR...THEN CLEARING OUT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. THE ONLY CHANGE WE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE TO BRING IN A TEMPO FOR HIGH MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 THROUGH MID MORNING AND TO DELAY CLEARING TIL LATE MORNING. MODELS DO VARY ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TRENDS REGARDING THIS MORNING/S STRATUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. PATCHY BR/FG MAY RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE CURRENT TAFS. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY... PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID 60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL LIQUID...FOR NOW. 82/JLD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 43 76 52 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 WACO, TX 60 41 74 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 10 PARIS, TX 55 40 71 49 70 / 0 0 0 20 20 DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 59 42 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 0 0 20 20 CORSICANA, TX 55 43 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 20 20 TEMPLE, TX 60 41 73 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
526 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ CHALLENGES OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF THE FORECAST...AS CURRENT CIGS LOWER THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BEFORE MIDDAY. ANY TIMING OF CIGS GOING TO HIGH MVFR...THEN CLEARING OUT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. THE ONLY CHANGE WE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE TO BRING IN A TEMPO FOR HIGH MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 THROUGH MID MORNING AND TO DELAY CLEARING TIL LATE MORNING. MODELS DO VARY ON TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TRENDS REGARDING THIS MORNING/S STRATUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. PATCHY BR/FG MAY RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE CURRENT TAFS. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY... PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID 60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL LIQUID...FOR NOW. 82/JLD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 43 76 52 73 / 0 5 5 10 10 WACO, TX 59 41 74 52 74 / 0 5 5 10 10 PARIS, TX 54 40 71 49 70 / 0 5 5 20 20 DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 5 5 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 57 42 75 50 71 / 0 5 5 10 10 DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 10 10 TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 5 5 20 20 CORSICANA, TX 56 43 74 53 73 / 0 5 5 20 20 TEMPLE, TX 59 41 73 52 76 / 0 5 5 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
542 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS... 1. TEMPERATURES GIVEN SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AIR ALOFT COMING IN 2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES 3. FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.3-0.4 INCHES PER RAP ANALYSIS. A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 WHERE READINGS WERE 0.5- 0.6 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN BOTH AREAS WAS CENTERED AT OR ABOVE 600MB...THOUGH...AS INDICATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE DRIER AIR BELOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW WAS EVIDENT COMING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SHORTWAVE. THIS SNOW WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 WEST OF I-29 BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED. TEMPERATURE WISE...QUITE THE CONTRAST EXISTS AT 925MB ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WAS A PLUME OF 5-15C READINGS RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE ACROSS MT...WY...SD AND NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS AIR HAS BEEN HEADING OUR WAY AS OUR READINGS ARE NOW UP TO -3 TO -7C. AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...REFLECTING THAT WARMER AIR COMING IN. FINALLY IN NORTHERN ND AND MN...READINGS WERE -10 TO -15C HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SNOW THERE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE WARMING TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK NORTH OF I-70...AND IN MANY SPOTS DEEP...WILL PREVENT MIXING TO 850MB. WE MIGHT MIX TO 925MB...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE MORE TREES EXIST...TO ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE REAL INTERESTING TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO WARM ADVECT AT 850MB AND 925MB...REACHING -4C EAST TO +4C WEST AT 925MB BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING IN MANY SPOTS...AND WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS. THAT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA PRODUCING THE SNOW IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO TRACK INTO UPPER MI BY 18Z. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE BULK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADAR ECHOES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AS VIRGA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. HERE TOO...THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW GIVEN PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS ARE NOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT...THE WARM NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD ALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. LASTLY FOG POTENTIAL. WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW AT 925MB...ITS HARD TO SEE MUCH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART EVEN WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE OF THE COLD EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. MUCH OF TODAYS WARMING WILL PROBABLY GO INTO WARMING THE SNOWPACK VERSUS RELEASING MOISTURE FROM IT. THUS...BELIEVE THE FOG CONCERN IS LOW AND TRIMMED IT TO MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COME IN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGHLIGHTSCONCERNS... 1. WILL IT PRECIPITATE AT ALL THIS WEEKEND? IF SO WHAT TYPE. 2. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 3. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT 4. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY A LOT HAS CHANGED MODEL WISE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 3 DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND TO MOSTLY END UP DRY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF. EVEN THE 06.00Z NAM WAITS UNTIL A BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT THATS IT. WHATS HAPPENED IS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE AND MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE AREA...PRIMARILY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS HARD TO COME BY. THE BIGGEST THING WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT...WHICH IS A BIG IF GIVEN THAT THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GULF OF MEXICO RETURN IS POINTED MORE TOWARDS ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND QUESTIONS ON MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WEAK FORCING...FIGURE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPES. REGARDING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES...925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4C WARMER ON SATURDAY...SO ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUN WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...40S ARE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AS SUGGESTED BY 06.00Z MAV/MET/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF GUIDANCE. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA UP. 30S SEEM LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ALBEDO WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY 20S OVER TAYLOR COUNTY INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS TAKE THEIR SWEET TIME COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION COMES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH FORMS PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR THIS. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT IN LATER FORECASTS WHICH COULD MODULATE THE EXPECTED SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER 925MB AIR FLOWS IN. THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY...WITH COOLING CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ABOUT HOW MUCH COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE ROBUST AND POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WORTHY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEAR DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BESIDES THE SNOW... CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 3-6K RANGE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN 6-10K DECK THIS MORNING...AND THEN SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN BECOME BROKEN 15-25K THIS EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
439 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE CLIPPER WILL STALL OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG IT FOCUSING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MAY BRING A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 439 PM EST...A CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TO NRN MAINE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN AND NRN NY TOWARDS DAY BREAK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS FRAGMENTED AND DIFFUSE. UPSTREAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOWERING INVERSION TO 4-5 KFT AGL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSE BAND FORMATION INTO THE WRN DACKS. OUR FCST FOLLOWS THE LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR CLOSELY FOR ROUGHLY 1-4" BY THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS...EXPECT ONLY A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. H850 TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A LONG TERM SNOW EVENT WILL START ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NRN NY...POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/I-90 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRL NEW ENGLAND. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO UPSTATE NY BY THE AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RIDGE IN FROM JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND N-CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD DURING THE DAY. OUR FCST REFLECTS 1-3" OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS 2-4" OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND WRN DACKS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30F FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DIPS S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AND MAY ACTUALLY REACH THE NY-PA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285 OR 290K SFC OF THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE MID-LEVEL FGEN AT H850-700...AND THE BUFKIT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILES AT KALB/KGFL/KSYR...SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS FOR ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE NAM WAS LESS SPECTACULAR. THE ECMWF WAS ALIGNED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME IF A WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... ...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SRN DACKS REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN VT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... OUR CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST FOR 9 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL POTENTIALLY IS FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT MORE LOCATIONS MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES WE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO ADDING THESE LOCATIONS /CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST/ TO WATCH JUST YET. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A 5TH TO 7TH PERIOD WATCH...AND THEY CAN BE RISKY. ANOTHER PERUSAL OF 12-HRS OF ADDITIONAL NWP GUIDANCE WAS DEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO EXPAND THE WATCH. NOW...FOR STARTERS...THE LATEST NAM AND SREFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS...AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF. THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GFS/ECMWF. WE FOLLOWED THE NERFC AND WPC QPF FROM THIS POINT FORWARD IN THE FCST. OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT COULD EVEN HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SINCE THE CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY /BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/...SO PTYPE LOOKS TO BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...DURING THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH AND A DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FCST AREA...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3-6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY NIGHTFALL...AND 1-4" TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE HERE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING COUPLED WITH THE VORTICTY ADVECTION. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/QG OMEGA WILL LIKELY PROMOTE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE FGEN PROFILES INDICATE SOME BANDS OF SNOW MAY FORM...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES ACROSS SE PA AND THE DELMARVA REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE FORMS AND WERE IT TRACKS FROM THERE. THE WPC PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFAL FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED! MORE DISCUSSION ON THIS STORM IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS STILL WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. THEN TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY...LOWERING TO LIKELY POPS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IN ALL AREAS. THE NAM WAS PRODUCING SOME MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IT SEEMED TO BE AN OUTLIER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 5 ABOVE TO THE TEENS. A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND IT WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR (AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD QUITE A FEW COLD AIR MASSES). HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN DRY BUT BITTER COLD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15 ABOVE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO WITH A GUSTY WIND AS WELL. HIGHS FRIDAY 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE. DURING THE EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS OR LESS...THEN PICK UP TO 5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRY WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084. MA...NONE. VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
115 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 PM EST...CLIPPER AND SHORT-WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN STREAM OVER NRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. SOME UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT- WAVE. SOME CLOUD TRENDS WERE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A 1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION. TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE. DURING THE EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS OR LESS...THEN PICK UP TO 5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHORT WAVE TROF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY EXIT THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO PROVIDE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN OUR CWFA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE LOWER POP VALUES TODAY. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...PER CSTAR RESEARCH OF INLAND EXTENT...THE BAND/S/ WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST SHEAR. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR PARALLEL FLOW THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO FURTHER PENETRATE INLAND. THIS TOO IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND COINCIDING REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. SINCE THE INVERSION LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF SNOW POTENTIAL...AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STRIP AWAY AND DOWNSLOPING AIDING IN DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER HALF OF THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SAT-SUN...A RATHER INTRIGUING WEEKEND IS SETTING UP WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TO OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT LOOKS LIKE A MULTI-LAKE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE IS UTILIZED. WE STILL EXPECT GENERALLY A 1-3" OR 2-4" SNOWFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. IT DOESN/T APPEAR HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT A GREATER THREAT INCREASES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND SOME LOWER 30S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE NRN ZONES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GGEM ARE BOTH FURTHER NORTH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIERS...AS THE BULK OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...WITH P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING WHEN STEADY PRECIP TAPERS OFF...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP GOING INTO MON NIGHT...WHILE GFS ENDS IT ON MONDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...WITH POPS TAPERING TO CHC FOR MON NIGHT...AND JUST SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. QPF IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...EVEN THOUGH INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COLD DURING THE EVENT DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DENSE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS...KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION. TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 20S FOR TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR WED INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE KGF/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER ABOUT 14Z ON SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT SNOW TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE. DURING THE EVENING THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS OR LESS...THEN PICK UP TO 5 TO 8 KTS ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD AND DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...FRUGIS AVIATION...GJM HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM... 327 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE (NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE. MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB. ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN. SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT. MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. KMD && .LONG TERM... 327 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG/CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. RATZER/MTF //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. WHILE FRONT IS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS MN/WI...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WILL PERSIST. CONCERNS INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH OVER TIME...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. VARIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATE IFR/VIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST OF TERMINALS AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER OUR DEEP SNOW COVER. UNTIL THEN...SUSPECT THAT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY FOG WILL AFFECT TERMINALS TONIGHT. HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT RFD MID-LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHICAGO. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON DETAILS HOWEVER AS MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH SATURATING THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * HIGH IN WIND TRENDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. * MEDIUM-LOW IN MVFR VSBY IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...LOW IN IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RATZER/MTF //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR. WINTRY MIX AND MVFR TRENDING IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST. SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS. MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE. MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW EARLY. NORTHWEST WINDS. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 225 PM CST A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM... 327 PM CST THROUGH SUNDAY... MOST OF THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REALLY CENTER AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL DRIVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. EXPECT A BREAK IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DECLINE TONIGHT BEFORE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MOISTURE AXIS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS DON`T ADVECT THE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OUR WAY...BUT GENERALLY MOVE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE GLIDES BY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE CHALLENGE IS THAT THE MUCH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE (NARRE...HRRR...SREF) GENERATE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS...WHILE MOS GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAS PATCHY FOG AND NOT UNTIL LATE. MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION UP CLOSER THE UPPER WAVE...BUT THE NAM TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME DRIZZLE. THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER DOES NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP...THUS EXPECTING ANY DRIZZLE WOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST AND TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION. AND WHILE THE DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S SUGGESTING THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE NOT SUPER DENSE...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE IT OUT. CURRENT FEELING IS AREAS NORTH GET SOME FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD TONIGHT...AREAS SOUTH SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MEDIUM TO LOW. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG STICKS AROUND AND WHEN DO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH BRING A MORE PRONOUNCED BLANKET OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTHWARD AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT STICKS AROUND NORTH...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TRYING TO HIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WHILE SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE. HAVE GONE SOME WHERE IN THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT AS MOST GUIDANCE IS CLOUDY MOST OF THE LATTER HALF OF AFTERNOON AND HAVING A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE. BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS WE DON`T AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOLID CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING...AND HAVE AREAS SOUTH TAGGING THE 40 MARK. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD COME LATE IN THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB. ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IN TWO PIECES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE SPLIT VORT CENTERS BUT MERGE INTO A SINGLE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN SEVERAL WAVES...BUT DUE TO THE DISJOINTED FORCING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE REDUCED. THE FIRST PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY COME SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL FRONT (925 AND LOWER) OOZES IN. SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS CONFINED VERY LOW...SUGGESTIVE OF DRIZZLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THEN AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON IS WHEN MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT THIS POINT. MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLING OF THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW A LITTLE BETTER IN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE...MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FILTERS IN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SOME WINTRY MIX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WOULD STILL HAVE A LAYER ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COLUMN...THUS DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS IT WOULD BE RAIN...OR MAYBE FZRA/SLEET...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THE MIX NORTH OF I-80/I-88. THEN ON SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE REMAIN IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW INDY...POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH. KMD && .LONG TERM... 327 PM CST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME CLEARING TO THE AREA. BUT THE QUIET PERIOD IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL SUITE HAS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW HEADING WAY NORTH...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX AT FIRST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW...RAIN/SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW DEEP OF AN TROUGH MAKES IT THROUGH OUR AREA. EITHER WAY...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER AND POSSIBLY LAKE COUNTIES OF INDIANA. THE STRONG HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * NONE IN SHORT TERM. * POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG/CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. WHILE FRONT IS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS MN/WI...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WILL PERSIST. CONCERNS INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH OVER TIME...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. VARIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATE IFR/VIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST OF TERMINALS AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER OUR DEEP SNOW COVER. UNTIL THEN...SUSPECT THAT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY FOG WILL AFFECT TERMINALS TONIGHT. HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT RFD MID-LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHICAGO. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON DETAILS HOWEVER AS MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH SATURATING THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * HIGH IN WIND TRENDS AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. * MEDIUM-LOW IN MVFR VSBY IN FOG LATE TONIGHT...LOW IN IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO LATE SATURDAY. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR. WINTRY MIX AND MVFR TRENDING IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST. SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS. MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTER MIX LATE. MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR-IFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW EARLY. NORTHWEST WINDS. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 225 PM CST A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE MIDWEST...TRACKING SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS...AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE). DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 213 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER...OR CLOSER TO NORMAL... TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHER THAN WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER PERSISTS BUT THE TRI- STATE REGION WILL NOT BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS AS OBSERVED TODAY AND FORECAST TOMORROW. A SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME MIXING. HOWEVER...A MEAGER BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MINIMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM BEING ATTAINED. THEREFORE...CURRENTLY DO NOT BELIEVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHED. SLIGHT WARMING IS FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT RETURNS. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORCING WARM AIR SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CRASH ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES C BEHIND THIS FRONT. MODEL RH FIELDS ALSO INDICATE DENSE CLOUD COVER SO DO NOT FORESEE A GREAT AMOUNT OF WARMING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN REACHES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CREST AND SPREADS IN WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION REACHES. AS WITH WEDNESDAY`S PRECIPITATION EVENT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME THE PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE IN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT EAST COLORADO RECEIVES SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OCCURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND BEGINS ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LGT/VRB AROUND 23Z FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST NEAR 10KTS BY 02Z. AROUND 09Z WINDS VEER TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS THEN NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 17Z. A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS. CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)... GOODLAND.....74 (1987) MCCOOK.......72 (1996) BURLINGTON...72 (1987) HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........76 (2009) TRIBUNE......75 (1943) YUMA.........70 (1987) CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS... GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962) HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........83 (02-12-1911) TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981) YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...99 CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO SOUTHERLY CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS ALREADY RISING TO 572-578 DM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED OVER OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KMCK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG RIDGING AND A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS SETTLING OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO OUR CWA. LATEST GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS TRENDING TOWARDS A QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPS ALOFT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY SO WHILE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS IF CURRENT TRENDS PLAY OUT. VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED REGARDING HIGH TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPS TODAY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY. RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY BASED ON ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS ALOFT (ALONG WITH MAV GUIDANCE). DUE TO THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WE WILL SEE DAYTIME TD VALUES PLUMMET FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS LIKELY OVERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH DUE TO SNOW MELT THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN OUR CWA...SO I COULD SEE TD VALUES BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS AN ISSUE SINCE IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH (MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER) MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITERIA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW AXIS WHERE THE 3HR REQUIREMENT MAY BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TD FORECAST IN THIS PART OF THE CWA...I AM HESITANT TO GO WITH A HIGHLIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON MONDAY...BOTH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO CARRY BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A TROUGH EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE NW PACIFIC COASTAL AREA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH SETTLES OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE SE OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY MOSTLY DRY COMING THRU AREA WITH ONLY STRONG RIDGING BEHIND BOUNDARY GIVING ESE FLOW INTO NW ZONES AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OROGRAPHIC QPF. SHORTWAVE DOES WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE LEAVING CWA...BUT DOES TAP INTO MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HAVE PUT IN MENTION OF RW/SW MIX BEFORE 06Z WED...AND AFTER 18Z WED BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH BEFORE CHANGEOVER WITH ARRIVAL OF CAA AND SURFACE RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT THURSDAY WITH CHANCE FOR FROPA LATE ON FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO COME THRU DRY DUE TO RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...BLOCKING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FEED INTO CWA. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN ALMOST 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ARRIVAL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND REBOUNDING FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT DRY FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LGT/VRB AROUND 23Z FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST NEAR 10KTS BY 02Z. AROUND 09Z WINDS VEER TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS THEN NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 17Z. A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KTS FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 242 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015 UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS. CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY (FEB 6)... GOODLAND.....73 (2009) MCCOOK.......75 (2009) BURLINGTON...71 (2009) HILL CITY....79 (2009) COLBY........73 (1963) TRIBUNE......71 (1999) YUMA.........69 (1963) CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY (FEB 7)... GOODLAND.....74 (1987) MCCOOK.......72 (1996) BURLINGTON...72 (1987) HILL CITY....71 (1996 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........76 (2009) TRIBUNE......75 (1943) YUMA.........70 (1987) CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS... GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962) HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) COLBY........83 (02-12-1911) TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981) YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS) && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...99 CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
303 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING AN IDEAL SETUP FOR STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. STRONG...UPVALLEY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING IN ESMERALDA COUNTY...DYER...IN PARTICULAR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AND HRRR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE THE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUT A DAMPER ON THE WINDS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. I INCREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY TONIGHT. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND INTO RED ROCK CANYON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE... MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS...WITH SHOWER CHANCES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST AND GREAT BASIN MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO PROVIDE AMPLE MIXING FOR ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND AID IN CUTTING OFF A LOW CIRCULATION FROM THE MAIN JET AND THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. THIS RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SOUTH THROUGH UTAH OR NEVADA BEFORE EVENTUALLY DRIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RARE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS...WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO. FOR THE MOMENT I HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH CHANGES IN FORECAST TRACK AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MAINLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FEET CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AT MCCARRAN TO SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS BY 05Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AT 25K CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AOB FL050 IN THE OWENS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OWENS VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. A ROTOR CLOUD IS ALREADY EVIDENT FORMING DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND POINTS EAST INTO ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAME LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR BLOWING DUST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD BE APPRECIATED. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CZYZYK LONG TERM...WOLCOTT FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
251 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHT THE PERIOD. A SHARP DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...ARCHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE AT 60 IN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AS OF 20 UTC ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND STRATUS...HIGHS QUICKLY DROP OFF ALL THE WAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE STATUS FIELD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS FIELD HAS NEARLY HALTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS NOW ONLY SUGGEST THE STRATUS PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKE SAKAKAWEA LATER TONIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG FORMATION UNDER MUCH OF THE BANK TONIGHT. BY 08-09 UTC TONIGHT...THE RAP/HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM ALL POINT TO THE STRATUS AND FOG BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO BISECT LAKE SAKAKAWEA. FOR SATURDAY...MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IS FORECAST BE IN THE 50S WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING INTO THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TWO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION - SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SNOW AN FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW AT VARIOUS TIME PERIODS. SATURDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. SATURDAY EVENING THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY FROM CROSBY/WILLISTON TO MANDAN/BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN/OAKES. LARGE VARIATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN JAMES VALLEY...TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS VARYING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...EMERGING IN THE FRONT RANGE ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWEST. COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ON TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AT KMOT AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY IFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE. KBIS AND KISN WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS BANK THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. KBIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY STRATUS AND FOG. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS DECK...WHICH HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 1815 UTC. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SKY COVER AND FOG FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE 15-17 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 THE CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1530 UTC. THE 12 THROUGH 14 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS BUILD THIS DECK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...INTO THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA AS EARLY AS 18 TO 20 UTC...AND ENCROACHING ON WILLISTON LATER TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH THE BUILD DOWN OF THE STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SUNSHINE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER 925MB-850MB ISOTHERMS. WILL CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MAIN LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO RIDE NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE NORTHWEST. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY RETURN BUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BRIEF FUTURE SHIFTS OF THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ATOP THE RIDGE LATER TODAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE LOW EDGES CLOSER...IT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THERE. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...AND COLDEST IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTH TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH TRANSITIONS TOWARDS SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE BEING MINIMAL AT BEST. PRECIP TYPES START OUT AS RAIN OVER THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WHILE TO THE NORTH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES REMAIN. THIS PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TEMPS IN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT COOL. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH 50S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING WAVE. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE COOLER TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NEXT TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID-LATE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING KMOT AND KJMS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING KBIS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND KISN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1042 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SURFACE HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING WITHIN THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING RAPID RISE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE A BIT MORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO TELL WHETHER OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS PROPERLY ON TRACK...BECAUSE OF THE RAPIDLY RISING VALUES AND LOCAL EFFECTS. THE COLD GROUND WILL HAVE SOME LIMITING FACTOR ON THE RISING TEMPERATURES...BUT PROBABLY NOT VERY MUCH. SO...WE WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY WARNINGS FOR FIRE WEATHER. NEVERTHELESS...THE WILDFIRE RISK WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 14-17Z...THEN DIMINISH AROUND 00Z. NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF KEND-KHBR AFTER 00Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. KEPT AMD NOT SKED AT KHBR. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL BE A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF A WAURIKA TO SEMINOLE LINE IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS VERIFY...THOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY...+14 TO +19C...HOWEVER LINGERING SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO MODIFY...ESPECIALLY WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. REGARDLESS...WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS THINKING DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING THAN LATEST MODELS SUGGESTED. COOLEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR DURANT AND ATOKA TO NEAR 80 NEAR GAGE AND WOODWARD. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE OFF BY MORE THAN 5 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG. THINK SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL GET ABOVE 80 DEGREES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH NO COLD AIR NORTH OF THE TROUGH. INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEAR RECORD WARMTH MAY AGAIN OCCUR. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT BE AS WARM COMPARED TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. MBS FIRE WEATHER... WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CLINTON TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY. HELD OFF WITH A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS NOT SURE ABOUT SURFACE HUMIDITIES...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT CLOSELY MONITOR. THERE IS A CHANCE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG. SUNDAY MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO INCREASING NORTH WINDS. CLIMATE... WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HERE ARE THE RECORDS THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. TODAY FEBRUARY 6 OKLAHOMA CITY...73 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 2009 WICHITA FALLS...83 DEGREES...SET IN 1950 SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7 OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...LAST SET IN 1937 WICHITA FALLS...85 DEGREES...SET IN 1950 SUNDAY FEBRUARY 8 OKLAHOMA CITY...76 DEGREES...SET IN 1999 WICHITA FALLS...82 DEGREES...SET IN 1943 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 70 40 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 77 31 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 70 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 58 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 23/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
412 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON - AND EVEN AS WARM AS THE MID 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD - PLENTY OF SNOWMELT HAS OCCURRED. WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTRODUCED NEAR SURFACE WILL BE A WILD CARD. THE NAM/SREF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN THE GFS. THE RAP IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FAVORABLE MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY FOG MENTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR SATURDAY...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WARM THE MID LEVELS TO RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 C WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. WHILE SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST TO WEST...THEY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING WE CAN ACHIEVE. ADDITIONALLY...THE SNOWPACK WILL ALSO SERVE TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY WHERE IT IS STILL FAIRLY DEEP. CERTAINLY THINK THAT GOOD MIXING WILL BE ACHIEVED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS REACHED THE 50S AND MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE WEST HERE...MAKING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S VERY POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE 40S ARE REASONABLE WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD PUT A GOOD DENT IN THE SNOWPACK. NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NEAREST STRATUS DECK IS WELL NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE EXPECTATION THAT FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD. BY AFTERNOON...SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME MID CLOUDS BUILDING LATE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 DISTINCT IMPULSE COMES OUT OF THE ACTIVE WESTERN TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADS ACROSS AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUBTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF DIV Q FIELDS AS A CONSENSUS...SO HAVE SHIFTED THE POPS JUST A BIT TO TIGHTEN UP THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT...AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MIDDLE CWA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF QPF EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL GENERATED PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FIGHT A DECENT SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER...PROBABLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. COVERAGE OF PRECIP ALSO CHALLENGED BY THE DRY LAYER...SO KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THE CRITICAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES... NOT ONLY AIR BUT ALSO SURFACE...AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PERHAPS WANDERING AROUND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MEANS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF AIR TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE A SHADE BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS EAST/NORTH...BUT LIKELY THAT MORE OF THE PRECIP WILL END UP RAIN INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN. DOES NOT TAKE A GREAT DEAL OF ICE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...AND EVEN IF AIR TEMPS REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THE ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SHADE COOLER IN PROTECTED LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS...AND COULD FIND OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT MORE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION. ON SUNDAY...SYSTEM WASTES LITTLE TIME RIPPLING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...AND WILL DRIVE THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. STRATUS FIELD WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL...AND COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL SYSTEM PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING TO OCCUR IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO. WHILE FAR FROM A STRONG COLD PUSH BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL ACT TO SHUNT ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING THREAT OUT OF THE AREA...MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ON EDGE OF CLOUD FIELD TOWARD THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. THERE COULD BE A BIT MORE CHANCE FOR CLEARING NEAR RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MONDAY...BUT STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND EVER PRESENT INVERSION WILL ACT TO HOLD ON TO MOST CLOUDS RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT WAVE MAKES A PUSH TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT AS TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THE WARM ADVECTIVE WING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT MAINLY OVER AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF I90 ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT AGAIN MUCH TOO WARM TO EXPECT MORE THAN LIQUID...AND WILL AGAIN BE DANCING A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN LINE ON TEMPERATURES...BUT GENERALLY MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT THAN THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR IN PLACE EAST OF THE JAMES. TUESDAY WILL BE DAY PART OF THE AREA AT LEAST PEEKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...AHEAD OF MAIN COLD PUSH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MIXING WOULD BRING SOME NEAR 60 DEGREE READINGS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WORK UP TOWARD THESE READINGS ONCE ASSURED OF THE DEMISE OF THE SNOW COVER. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AND CERTAINLY WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS. COLD TEMPS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS QUICKENED EVEN MORE BY LOSS OF MOST SNOW COVER IN THE SHORT TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW MELT. THE NAM REMAINS THE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION WITH THE GFS INDICATES FOG IS LESS LIKELY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELING TRENDS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CHAPMAN AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CWA...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTH WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30KT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING LOW STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL IMPEDE WARMING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 60S THERE...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SUNNY WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE FIRE THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY WET FUELS...EVEN IN NW ZONES WHERE THE RH DOES DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT. A MORE ROBUST ROUND OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED NEAR 900MB WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE THIS INVERSION. HOWEVER THE LIFTING OF THE MOIST LAYER IN THE LOWEST 4000FT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS WEAK...AND CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS FOUR LONGWAVE TROUGHS...WHICH IS A STABLE WAVE NUMBER...MEANING THE MAIN TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL TEND TO HAVE LITTLE LONGITUDINAL MOVEMENT. THUS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP ANY CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION THERE HAS BEEN A CURIOUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW SEEN ON 100MB MAPS THAT HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE DURING THE LAST MONTH SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 15N AND 115W. THIS FEATURE LIKELY EXPLAINS WHY WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL 500MB LOWS CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DROP INTO THE BAJA REGION RECENTLY. YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES NEXT WEEK AND WANDER AROUND IN THE SONORA DESERT. WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER LOW...THIS PATTERN IS ALSO KNOWN AS A REX BLOCK AND WILL LIKELY ENSURE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY EFFECTIVELY STATIONARY UNTIL PERHAPS LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THIS BLOCK CAN BREAK DOWN...SO WE WILL DEFINITELY BE CARRYING A MONTHLY RAINFALL DEFICIT THROUGH AT LEAST MID FEBRUARY. FOR THE DETAILS OF NEXT WEEK/S FORECAST....FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE REAL COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO CREATE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP HERE. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE GRADUALLY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE REGION. TR.92 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ STRATUS IS ALMOST BURNT OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS I WRITE THIS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED IFR STRATUS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REASONING...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES SHOW EXISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A NUMBER OF MODELS SUCH AS BAK40...NAM...SREF...WRF ARW...AND RAP ARE INDICATING THIS MOISTURE REACHING THE TAF SITES. WINDS OF 10KT AT THE SURFACE AND 20-30KT 1K-2K ABOVE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR WITH A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND URBAN PARTICULATES. GFS HAS DONE A POOR JOB AT DISCRIMINATING THE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE/DRIZZLE THE LAST FEW DAYS SO I AM NOT BELIEVING ITS VFR SOLUTION. IFR WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL AFTER MID MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR AND BURN OFF BY NOON. IN EXTENSION...SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH AN IFR MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AFTERNOON. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 72 53 73 45 / 0 0 5 10 0 WACO, TX 43 70 53 78 43 / 0 0 5 10 0 PARIS, TX 40 69 49 69 44 / 0 0 10 10 0 DENTON, TX 40 73 49 74 39 / 0 0 5 10 0 MCKINNEY, TX 41 70 51 71 41 / 0 0 5 10 0 DALLAS, TX 44 70 54 72 46 / 0 0 5 10 0 TERRELL, TX 41 69 54 71 45 / 0 0 10 10 0 CORSICANA, TX 43 69 55 72 47 / 0 0 10 10 0 TEMPLE, TX 42 69 53 78 45 / 0 0 5 10 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 41 78 47 77 42 / 0 0 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .AVIATION... STRATUS IS ALMOST BURNT OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS I WRITE THIS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE ADDED IFR STRATUS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REASONING...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES SHOW EXISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A NUMBER OF MODELS SUCH AS BAK40...NAM...SREF...WRF ARW...AND RAP ARE INDICATING THIS MOISTURE REACHING THE TAF SITES. WINDS OF 10KT AT THE SURFACE AND 20-30KT 1K-2K ABOVE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR WITH A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND URBAN PARTICULATES. GFS HAS DONE A POOR JOB AT DISCRIMINATING THE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE/DRIZZLE THE LAST FEW DAYS SO I AM NOT BELIEVING ITS VFR SOLUTION. IFR WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL AFTER MID MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR AND BURN OFF BY NOON. IN EXTENSION...SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH AN IFR MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AFTERNOON. 84 && .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD BUT DID MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST CLOUD COVER FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HAVE UPDATED TONIGHT/S FORECAST TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2SM. TR.92 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015/ SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY... PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE UNDONE THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE RAP AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND THIS FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THEIR CLOUD TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH MID 60S EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO MID 50S IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 MPH...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG TO OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO COMANCHE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL ACTUALLY BE STRONGER EAST OF THIS AREA BUT LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED CONCERNS IN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS AND BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGER SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HINTS SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS LOW...AND ALL LIQUID...FOR NOW. 82/JLD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 43 76 52 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 WACO, TX 60 41 74 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 10 PARIS, TX 55 40 71 49 70 / 0 0 0 20 20 DENTON, TX 60 42 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 59 42 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 DALLAS, TX 59 44 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 TERRELL, TX 56 42 73 52 71 / 0 0 0 20 20 CORSICANA, TX 55 43 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 20 20 TEMPLE, TX 60 41 73 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 42 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS... 1. TEMPERATURES GIVEN SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AIR ALOFT COMING IN 2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES 3. FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT CURRENTLY AS OF 09Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO ALBERTA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.. MAIN SHORTWAVE OF NOTE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 0.3-0.4 INCHES PER RAP ANALYSIS. A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 WHERE READINGS WERE 0.5- 0.6 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN BOTH AREAS WAS CENTERED AT OR ABOVE 600MB...THOUGH...AS INDICATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE DRIER AIR BELOW HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW WAS EVIDENT COMING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SHORTWAVE. THIS SNOW WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 WEST OF I-29 BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED. TEMPERATURE WISE...QUITE THE CONTRAST EXISTS AT 925MB ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WAS A PLUME OF 5-15C READINGS RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE ACROSS MT...WY...SD AND NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS AIR HAS BEEN HEADING OUR WAY AS OUR READINGS ARE NOW UP TO -3 TO -7C. AIR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...REFLECTING THAT WARMER AIR COMING IN. FINALLY IN NORTHERN ND AND MN...READINGS WERE -10 TO -15C HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SNOW THERE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE WARMING TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK NORTH OF I-70...AND IN MANY SPOTS DEEP...WILL PREVENT MIXING TO 850MB. WE MIGHT MIX TO 925MB...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE MORE TREES EXIST...TO ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE REAL INTERESTING TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO WARM ADVECT AT 850MB AND 925MB...REACHING -4C EAST TO +4C WEST AT 925MB BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WINDS FROM DECOUPLING IN MANY SPOTS...AND WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS. THAT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA PRODUCING THE SNOW IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO TRACK INTO UPPER MI BY 18Z. THAT SNOW AREA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE BULK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOME RADAR ECHOES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AS VIRGA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. HERE TOO...THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW GIVEN PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS ARE NOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT...THE WARM NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD ALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. LASTLY FOG POTENTIAL. WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW AT 925MB...ITS HARD TO SEE MUCH FOG FORMING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART EVEN WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING BECAUSE OF THE COLD EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. MUCH OF TODAYS WARMING WILL PROBABLY GO INTO WARMING THE SNOWPACK VERSUS RELEASING MOISTURE FROM IT. THUS...BELIEVE THE FOG CONCERN IS LOW AND TRIMMED IT TO MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COME IN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGHLIGHTSCONCERNS... 1. WILL IT PRECIPITATE AT ALL THIS WEEKEND? IF SO WHAT TYPE. 2. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 3. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT 4. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY A LOT HAS CHANGED MODEL WISE IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 3 DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND TO MOSTLY END UP DRY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 06.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF. EVEN THE 06.00Z NAM WAITS UNTIL A BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR...BUT THATS IT. WHATS HAPPENED IS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE AND MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH THE AREA...PRIMARILY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS HARD TO COME BY. THE BIGGEST THING WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT...WHICH IS A BIG IF GIVEN THAT THE 925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GULF OF MEXICO RETURN IS POINTED MORE TOWARDS ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND QUESTIONS ON MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WEAK FORCING...FIGURE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPES. REGARDING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES...925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4C WARMER ON SATURDAY...SO ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUN WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...40S ARE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AS SUGGESTED BY 06.00Z MAV/MET/REGIONAL CANADIAN/ECMWF GUIDANCE. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA UP. 30S SEEM LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ALBEDO WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY 20S OVER TAYLOR COUNTY INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO DROP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS 925MB TEMPS TAKE THEIR SWEET TIME COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION COMES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH FORMS PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. THUS HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FOR THIS. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT IN LATER FORECASTS WHICH COULD MODULATE THE EXPECTED SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER 925MB AIR FLOWS IN. THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY...WITH COOLING CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 06.00Z ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ABOUT HOW MUCH COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE ROBUST AND POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WORTHY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE APPROACH. IN ANY EVENT...BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEAR DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAKING A BIT SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD CLEAR KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 18-21Z. SOME THREAT FOR A MVFR DECK TO MOVE IN RIGHT AFTER THAT FOR A FEW HOURS. THE LOW CIGS CURRENTLY SIT OVER ND...PER SATELLITE AND SFC OBS...AND HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE COULD PRESS OVER KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 22-00Z...LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS. ITS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GO EITHERWAY...SO GOING TO HOLD ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE...KEEPING THE MVFR CIGS JUST NORTH. WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICK FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WORK ON THE SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ITS A LIGHT- FLUFFY SNOW AND LATEST ANALYSIS POINT TO RATHER COLD TEMPS IN THE SNOW PACK. SO...ANY MELTING WOULD LIKELY GO INTO COMPACTION OF THE SNOW RATHER THAN INTO SATURATION OF THE NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS LIMITS THE FG/BR POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS...BUT WILL HOLD P6SM FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...RIECK