Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NEAR THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
03Z RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A LINE OF PCPN EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL MA THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL NJ.
TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. 00Z OKX
SOUNDING AS WELL AS VARIOUS RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ARE INDICATIVE OF A WARM LAYER OF AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT DEEP JUST
ABOVE THE SFC. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY PCPN FALLING WHERE TEMPS
ARE BELOW FREEZING WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND
ATTM BASED ON OBS AND EVEN NSSL`S M-PING DATA.
NONE OF THE HI RES DATA SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THIS LINE OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PCPN...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED ON TRENDS IN OBSERVED DATA. AN SPS MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED TO COVER POCKETS OF -FZRA...BUT THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL PA/NY. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS.
HOURLY T/TD WILL BECOME A CHALLENGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW CONTINUES...MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET QUADRANTS. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE SNOW BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVES THIS.
DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY REACHED BY LATE MORNING AND THEN TEMPS ARE
STEADY TO DECREASING THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 35 MPH WITH SOME PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL PROFILES
EXHIBIT A CLASSIC BACKING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT...CONVEYING COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF GMOS/NAM12/MAV...WITH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SETTLE IN.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF
LOWS FROM THE GMOS/MET/MAV. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH
EXCEPTION OF NYC BEING NEAR 10 ABOVE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CT WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA PUSHED BY A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST LIQUID EQUIVALENT RANGES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AGAIN THERE DO REMAIN A FEW UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...
IF THE HIGH IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...IT WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY TOO FAR SOUTH LEADING TO LESS OR NO SNOW.
IF THE HIGH IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER
NORTHER BRINGING WARMER ALOFT WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN / SLEET / OR JUST
PLAIN RAIN.
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED.
THEN A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY 8Z...WITH
BEST TIMING FOR THE BAND TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 11-14Z AROUND NYC
METRO TERMINALS. IF THE SNOW BAND HOLDS TOGETHER COULD SEE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOWER CIGS. THEN VFR ONCE THE BAND
MOVES EAST.
S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN...EXPECT AN
ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE NW. GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AS WELL. SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-35KT MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR COND PSBL
IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THURSDAY. GALES RESTRICTED TO THE OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHER COMBO OF WIND AND HIGHER OCEAN SEAS WILL YIELD SOME MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
OTHERWISE...NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY AND SCA WINDS.
SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. THE
BRISK NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT) IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
1.00-1.25 INCHES OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...24/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/24/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT,
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ALONG THIS FRONT
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND MONDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS AND CAN GGEM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
PCPN AND EXTENT. THE ECMWF AND 18Z NAM AXIS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO FAR
NORTHWEST. LATEST COUPLE OF HRRRS AND RAPS ARE ALSO NOT CATCHING
THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION. SO WE NUDGED HIGHER POPS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ACCUMS SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPDATE. IDEA IS SIMILAR TO ABOUT
A 10-15 MILE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HRRR SNOW ACCUM MAPS. THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC FORCING MENTIONED BELOW STILL HOLDS.
NORTHERN VALLEYS ARE RADIATING WELL. BUT OTHER AREAS,
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. WE ADJUSTED
THEM UPWARD. THIS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CALENDAR HIGH
FOR THE 5TH WILL OCCUR BEFORE DAWN.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION HAVE MODERATED CONSIDERABLY
IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S ARCTIC SHOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF S-SWLY
FLOW IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE NRN NEW ENGLAND-SRN QUEBEC BORDER.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
(I.E., A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY) AND
PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE
PERIOD, OCCURRING JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUPPORT THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING THRU MAINLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONCERT WITH THE 850 MB FROPA
AND WHEN THE GREATEST DPVA ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PINPOINTING THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (1-2 INCHES) IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE
PA AND NW NJ. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY GET INTERRUPTED AS THE BAND OF SNOW MOVES DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS. POPS AND FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY
DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
RUSH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINIMAL TO SMOOTH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME
DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. RAPID PRESSURE RISES, GUSTY NW WINDS
AND STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR AROUND OR EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE WITH TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS IN TEENS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95, SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND BELOW ZERO FOR THE RIDGES IN NW NJ AND NE
PA.
THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE TOO
FAR OFFSHORE TO DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR AREA. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
LIKELY ROB LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE ANAFRONTAL BAND OF SNOW
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE CONFINED TO NORTH AND WEST OF PHILA SINCE THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL MAKE IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. EVEN IF IT DOES, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE GUSTS DROP
OFF, THERE SHOULD REMAIN SOME WIND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUMP IN COLD AIR. THE WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE LOW WIND CHILLS AGAIN, WITH MOST PLACES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALONG WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL START AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES ARE FORECAST SWING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A COUPLE OF SEPARATE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PTYPES ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, AS THE TRACK OF
THE LOW, AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES, IF IT LIFTS NORTH AT
ALL, WILL ALL HELP DETERMINE WHERE ANY TRANSITION ZONE WILL
DEVELOP. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ALL SNOW, WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE ALL RAIN OR A
MAJORITY OF RAIN, WITH AREAS IN BETWEEN SOME SORT OF WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, RAIN, AND/OR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WE`VE INTRODUCED
SLEET INTO THE FORECAST, AND WILL SEE IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF
FREEZING RAIN BECOMES MORE OF A THREAT.
ON TUESDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULLING AWAY FROM THE
AREA TO THE EAST. THERE COULD REMAIN SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS VFR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEN VFR BUT WINDY ON
THURSDAY.
REST OF THIS EVENING AND THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH
EITHER A MID OR CIRRUS DECK CIG. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LWR VFR CIGS PREDICTED.
THE CFP TIMING BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY PASSING FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MOST
LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING AT KABE.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED INTO THE KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS.
NO SNOW PREDICTED FOR KMIV OR KACY. NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THIS
TRANSITION CLOSE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR. A MID DECK
CIG IS LIKELY EARLY. THEN A SCATTERED DECK OF STRATOCU AROUND
3500-4000 FT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KTS AND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY TOPPING 30
KTS AT WINDIER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISHING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE
POSSIBLE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED FAR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, BUT
EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT NORTH AS SEAS (AND TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT WINDS) REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS LATE TONIGHT ALL
AREAS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU EARLY IN THE MORNING AND NW
WINDS STRENGTHEN QUICKLY. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ON THU, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 40 KT
POSSIBLE OFF THE DE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT. CONDITIONS DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OR LOWER
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
613 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT,
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ALONG THIS FRONT
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND MONDAY. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE WE RAISED HOURLY TEMPS A BIT IN THE EVENING
AS THEY ARE FALLING SLOWLY. GETS A LITTLE BIT TRICKIER MOW THAT
THE SUN HAS SET AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THE CIRRUS IS PATCHY. THE
SNOW ITSELF IS FALLING SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE
LATEST RAP AND HRRR ARE INDICATING, SO EDGED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AND A SMIDGE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION HAVE MODERATED CONSIDERABLY
IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S ARCTIC SHOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF S-SWLY
FLOW IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REBOUNDED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE NRN NEW ENGLAND-SRN QUEBEC BORDER.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
(I.E., A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY) AND
PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE
PERIOD, OCCURRING JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUPPORT THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING THRU MAINLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONCERT WITH THE 850 MB FROPA
AND WHEN THE GREATEST DPVA ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PINPOINTING THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (1-2 INCHES) IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE
PA AND NW NJ. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY GET INTERRUPTED AS THE BAND OF SNOW MOVES DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS. POPS AND FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY
DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
RUSH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. RAPID PRESSURE RISES, GUSTY NW WINDS
AND STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR AROUND OR EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE WITH TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS IN TEENS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95, SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND BELOW ZERO FOR THE RIDGES IN NW NJ AND NE
PA.
THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE TOO
FAR OFFSHORE TO DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR AREA. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
LIKELY ROB LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE ANAFRONTAL BAND OF SNOW
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE CONFINED TO NORTH AND WEST OF PHILA SINCE THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL MAKE IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. EVEN IF IT DOES, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE GUSTS DROP
OFF, THERE SHOULD REMAIN SOME WIND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUMP IN COLD AIR. THE WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE LOW WIND CHILLS AGAIN, WITH MOST PLACES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALONG WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL START AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES ARE FORECAST SWING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A COUPLE OF SEPARATE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PTYPES ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, AS THE TRACK OF
THE LOW, AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES, IF IT LIFTS NORTH AT
ALL, WILL ALL HELP DETERMINE WHERE ANY TRANSITION ZONE WILL
DEVELOP. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ALL SNOW, WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE ALL RAIN OR A
MAJORITY OF RAIN, WITH AREAS IN BETWEEN SOME SORT OF WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, RAIN, AND/OR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WE`VE INTRODUCED
SLEET INTO THE FORECAST, AND WILL SEE IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF
FREEZING RAIN BECOMES MORE OF A THREAT.
ON TUESDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULLING AWAY FROM THE
AREA TO THE EAST. THERE COULD REMAIN SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS VFR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEN VFR BUT WINDY ON
THURSDAY.
THIS EVENING AND THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH EITHER A
MID OR CIRRUS DECK CIG. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LWR VFR CIGS PREDICTED.
THE CFP TIMING BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY PASSING FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MOST
LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING AT KABE.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED INTO THE KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS.
NO SNOW PREDICTED FOR KMIV OR KACY. NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THIS
TRANSITION CLOSE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR. A MID DECK
CIG IS LIKELY EARLY. THEN A SCATTERED DECK OF STRATOCU AROUND
3500-4000 FT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KTS AND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY TOPPING 30
KTS AT WINDIER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISHING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE
POSSIBLE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU LATE THIS EVE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU EARLY IN THE MORNING AND NW WINDS
STRENGTHEN QUICKLY. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THU, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 40 KT POSSIBLE OFF
THE DE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT. CONDITIONS DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OR LOWER
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY, PULLING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ALONG THIS FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MID SHIFT FORECAST WITH SOME SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATIONS OF
THE TEMPS IS PERFORMING VERY WELL AND THE HIGH CLOUD DISSIPATED AS
MODELED! A BEAUTIFUL DAY....WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND A LIGHTER WIND THAN THAT OF LAST EVENING.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO START WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TO SHUT OFF SOMETIME BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AS THICK MID CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY PA AND NJ. THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WAA SNOW NOW ENTERING SW WISCONSIN FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SHOULD RACE EAST ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 60KT 700MB JET MODELED INTO
CENTRAL PA BY 12Z WED. ATTENDANT WITH THIS 700MB SPEED MAX IS A MODELED
WSW 850 JET CORE THAT IS MODELED TO BE ASTRIDE THE PA/MD BORDER BY
12Z WED. QUALITATIVELY THE 250 JET DIDN`T SHOW MUCH CONTRIBUTION
TO THE LIFT.
AM EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO MEASURE .1 TO .5 INCHES ALONG AND NW
OF I80 BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES
POSSIBLY DOWN TO KPNE. THIS IS CLOSE TO MULTI MODEL SUPPORT FOR NE
PA AND NW NJ. THE NSSL WRF WAS FURTHER SOUTH...ALMOST TO PHL BY
MORNING AND WE SEE THE CONSERVATIVE RAP IMPLYING FLURRIES DOWN TO
KABE AND KRDG.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE THE COLDER 12Z/3 GFS MOS (NAM WAS NOT AS COLD) AND
WE MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE FORECAST NUMBERS BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES
OVER THE SNOW COVER IN OUR 630 PM EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY ALONG
AND N OF I78.
LIGHT WIND.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR A BIT ABOVE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SRN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE SNOW AND THE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
SNOWPACK EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WAA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY 14-15Z AND THEN
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FORECAST IS 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/3 GFS/NAM MOS. THE 12Z
ECMWF 2M TEMPS HAVE COME UP 3 DEGREES FROM THE 00Z/3 CYCLE, SO WE
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD FIT FOR THE MAX TEMPS TOMORROW (AVERAGE OR A
BIT ABOVE), PROVIDED PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS MIDDAY. AM A LITTLE
CAUTIOUS TO EXPRESS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS MAX TEMP FORECAST. A
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE IS MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MOVING SNOW
ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THEY ALL BEGIN TO SHRINK THE
SNOW SHIELD SOME AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DEEPENS
AND DIVES MORE ACROSS OUR AREA, DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING A LOW
OFF THE COAST. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE, THE SNOW OVER THE
LAND MAY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND SNOW FOCUSES MORE OFFSHORE AND TO
OUR NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BIG SNOW
PRODUCER, MOSTLY UNDER AN INCH EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY START SOONER AND SNOW
LONGER. WE EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP
IN COLD AIR. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST AND MOVES
NORTHWEST, WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS, LOW WIND CHILLS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN, WITH MOST PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALONG WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA, AS A SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MOSTLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THIS LOW
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
FOCUSING MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND IF THE FRONT
CAN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY, PTYPES COULD BE VARIABLE. NORTH OF
THE LOW/FRONT, PTYPES SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW; SOUTH MAY START AS SNOW,
THEN MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN, BEFORE ENDING AS SNOW. IN BETWEEN COULD
START AS SNOW, THEN MIX FOR A PERIOD, THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW.
IF THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALL
SNOW BY THAT TIME, BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AS THE LOW PULLS
TO OUR NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT AOA 15000 FT. NW WIND BACKS TO WSW WITH
GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 5000 FT IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND. BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
VCNTY KMPO IN THAT 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE DOWN
TO KPNE BUT NOT YET CONFIDENTLY FCST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS BRIEFLY NEAR 5000 FT EARLY IN THE DAY RISING
TO SCT-BKN AOA 10000 FT MIDDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 15
TO POSSIBLY 20 KT DURING THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON
ANY SNOW WEDNESDAY OR NON VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN DIMINISHING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELED AROUND 1839Z AND NEW SCA ISSUED FOR WED AFTN/EVE.
IT LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL SCA AT THAT TIME WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE
RATES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT EARLY, DIMINISHING TO SUB- SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY IN THE DAY CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS; GALE WATCH ISSUED. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
224 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA
SUNDAY. TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND, LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG EAST
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MID SHIFT FORECAST WITH SOME SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATIONS OF
THE TEMPS IS PERFORMING VERY WELL AND THE HIGH CLOUD DISSIPATED AS
MODELED! A BEAUTIFUL DAY....WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND A LIGHTER WIND THAN THAT OF LAST EVENING.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO START WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TO SHUT OFF SOMETIME BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AS THICK MID CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY PA AND NJ. THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WAA SNOW NOW ENTERING SW WISCONSIN FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SHOULD RACE EAST ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 60KT 700MB JET MODELED INTO
CENTRAL PA BY 12Z WED. ATTENDANT WITH THIS 700MB SPEED MAX IS A MODELED
WSW 850 JET CORE THAT IS MODELED TO BE ASTRIDE THE PA/MD BORDER BY
12Z WED. QUALITATIVELY THE 250 JET DIDNT SHOW MUCH CONTRIBUTION TO
THE LIFT.
AM EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO MEASURE .1 TO .5 INCHES ALONG AND NW
OF I80 BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES
POSSIBLY DOWN TO KPNE. THIS IS CLOSE TO MULTI MODEL SUPPORT FOR NE
PA AND NW NJ. THE NSSL WRF WAS FURTHER SOUTH...ALMOST TO PHL BY
MORNING AND WE SEE THE CONSERVATIVE RAP IMPLYING FLURRIES DOWN TO
KABE AND KRDG.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE THE COLDER 12Z/3 GFS MOS (NAM WAS NOT AS COLD) AND
WE MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE FORECAST NUMBERS BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES
OVER THE SNOW COVER IN OUR 630 PM EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY ALONG
AND N OF I78.
LIGHT WIND.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR A BIT ABOVE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SRN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE SNOW AND THE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
SNOWPACK EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WAA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY 14-15Z AND THEN
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FORECAST IS 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/3 GFS/NAM MOS. THE 12Z
ECMWF 2M TEMPS HAVE COME UP 3 DEGREES FROM THE 00Z/3 CYCLE, SO WE
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD FIT FOR THE MAX TEMPS TOMORROW (AVERAGE OR A
BIT ABOVE), PROVIDED PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS MIDDAY. AM A LITTLE
CAUTIOUS TO EXPRESS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS MAX TEMP FORECAST. A
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
EAST, REACHING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. THE BULK OF ANY
STEADIER PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. OF NOTE, THE WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM, WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. THIS
SOLUTION, WHICH IS MOSTLY SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES, MAINLY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND
WAS NOT FACTORED IN MUCH TO THE FORECAST. WHILE CONTINUITY WAS
MAINTAINED FOR THE MOST PART, SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS
AND TIMING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER NOTICEABLE PUSH
OF FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED ON NORTHWEST WINDS, AND AS TEMPERATURES
DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND ZERO TO POSSIBLY
BELOW ZERO WILL BE FELT. IN FACT, WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
POCONOS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY, A RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE, AS HIGHS MOSTLY RANGE FROM TEENS IN
THE NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THEN, WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
TEND TO DIVERGE MORE. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE HAVE KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS
IN PICTURE FOR SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS BEING COLD ENOUGH
TO MAINLY SUPPORT SNOW. FROM HERE, THERE MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A NOTICEABLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALSO DIGGING
TO THE EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THE TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS THERE ARE NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS, ECMWF, AND OTHERS WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE. FOR NOW, WE MAINLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE
AND CONTINUITY FOR TEMPS/WINDS/POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT AOA 15000 FT. NW WIND BACKS TO WSW WITH
GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 5000 FT IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND. BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
VCNTY KMPO IN THAT 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE DOWN
TO KPNE BUT NOT YET CONFIDENTLY FCST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS BRIEFLY NEAR 5000 FT EARLY IN THE DAY RISING
TO SCT-BKN AOA 10000 FT MIDDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 15
TO POSSIBLY 20 KT DURING THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON
ANY SNOW WEDNESDAY OR NON VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH CEILINGS AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET. SOME POSSIBLE SUB-VFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELED AROUND 1839Z AND NEW SCA ISSUED FOR WED AFTN/EVE.
IT LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL SCA AT THAT TIME WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE
RATES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL YIELD A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY MAY DEVELOP THEN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AND SEAS NEARING 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 223
SHORT TERM...DRAG 223
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG 223
MARINE...DRAG 223
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL BE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS AFFECTED MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAIN. WE HAVE FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST TO LIKELY SOUTHEAST. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA SO FROZEN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
GONE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT MAYBE AN EXITING SHOWER IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. A VERY DRY
AIR MASS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO
SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE BACK IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AND SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING...PROBABILITY AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW POP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...THEN
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FL HAS BEGUN SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z. EXPECT INTERMITTENT RAIN AT
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN AT OGB. WITH THE RAIN CIGS
WILL BE MVFR AT OGB WITH TEMPO MVFR ELSEWHERE. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
845 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
837 PM CST
WE HAVE OPTED NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...I HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AS THE
EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
DECOUPLING TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH I DID NOT ALTER FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MUCH...THE LIGHTER WINDS (5KT OR LESS) SHOULD HELP
KEEP WIND CHILLS AT...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 BELOW IN MOST
AREAS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 PM CST
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN COLD TEMPS AND LOW
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...MODERATE SNOW STEADILY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PUSHING THROUGH AREAS FROM GIBSON
CITY TO RENSSELAER. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE PERSISTENT FGEN
DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SNOW
TO EXIT TO THE CWA AROUND THE 23Z TIME THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WHERE
ONE HALF MILE TO THREE QUARTER MILE VIS IS STILL BE OBSERVED. END
TIMING FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES END
TIME OF 23Z ALSO STILL APPEARING GOOD. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
COULD STILL PERSIST SLIGHTLY JUST BEYOND 23Z...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
NO MORE THAN A HALF HOUR OF SNOW. THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SNOW WILL
LEAVE MOST LOCATIONS DRY LATER THIS EVENING BUT WITH COLDER AIR
SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT...MAINLY PORTER
COUNTY. BEST FOCUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
BUT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL STILL
POSSIBLE.
THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR...CLEARING SKIES...AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER COLD
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THIS EVENING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OBSERVING SUBZERO LOWS TONIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS LOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND LIKELY REMAINING UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER. HAD DEBATED
ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
COUNTIES BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT DO
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...TEMPS DO APPEAR TO BE RATHER
COLD TONIGHT AND COULD SEE THE EVENING CREW ISSUING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE ONGOING WARMING ALOFT...WITH
BACKING WINDS AND STRONG WAA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COULD
HELP PROVIDE WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING
THIS WARMUP. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING TEMPS IN THE MID
30S AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
SATURDAY...DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUIDANCE. I WONDER HOW MUCH
THIS WARMING ALOFT COULD BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...AND THEN
ESPECIALLY WITH A SOLID SNOWPACK IN PLACE. AM MORE FOCUSED ON THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THEN THE UNLIKELY
WARMER TEMPS...AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE MONITORED. ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...BUT WITH ALL
SNOW THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NNW TO NW WINDS GUSTING EARLY THIS EVE.
* LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND BACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE WESTERLY
DIRECTION AND LIGHT. AS THE HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE SNOW
COVER SHOULD OFFER A STOUT INVERSION THAT WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE
GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THAT LOW INVERSION THOUGH...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AS STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 40-45 KT AROUND 1000-3000 FT TAKE SHAPE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THURSDAY EVENING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIP AT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING EAST.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
154 PM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST/WEST GALES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MORE MODEST NORTHEAST-EAST
FLOW ALSO APPEARS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND
HELPING TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE LAKE...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HIGH CENTER OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP AGAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...AS THE HIGH SPREADS SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW-END GALES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND
FAR SOUTH ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...THUS HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS
FROM 3 PM CST THURSDAY THROUGH 3 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
CROSSES THE LAKE.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGGING TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW THEN LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SET
UP A PERIOD OF MODESTLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW...DEPENDING UPON
THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO.
FOR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IL...EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IND. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ICE SEEN IN MODIS POLAR
ORBITER SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING. WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW CURRENT ONE TO PLAY OUT AND ALLOW
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE DURATION OF LESS THAN SCA CRITERIA
THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM
FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Except for extreme southeast Illinois, the snow has ended early
this evening. Expect the snow to push out of southeast IL in the
next hour as Arctic high settles in from the northwest by Thursday
morning. Very cold temperatures expected across the area tonight
but as the center of the high shifts into west central Illinois by
morning, winds will decrease across the entire forecast area. Wind
chill values will be ranging from -10 to -20 across the far north,
but because of the lighter winds, we are not seeing a prolonged
period of wind chills of less than -15 Thursday morning, so will
not add any headlines across the north at this time. If it appears
winds will hold up longer than currently forecast, will need to
reconsider any wind chill headlines. The critical time period
would be from 2 am until 9 am but current HRRR and Rapid Refresh
guidance suggest winds will be quite light during this time.
As the high settles in from the northwest, clearing will continue
to work its way southeast this evening with most of the area seeing
a clear sky during the early morning hours which should last thru
the day on Thursday. Look for a return southerly flow to start to
setup Thursday afternoon across the west as the center of the cold
air mass shifts off to our east. Have already sent out a couple
of updates with the expiration of the Winter Weather Advisory and
to address precip type issues over far southeast Illinois. Will
be adjusting the ending time over far southeast Illinois along
with some tweaks to the sky and wind grids which will bring about
another ZFP update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Will remove some southern and western counties west of the IL river
from the winter weather advisory that goes until 5 pm this afternoon
for 2-4 inches of snow. A cold front just passed southeast of
Lawrenceville at mid afternoon with a snow band pressing ese to
along I-72 and has been weakening the past few hours. Short wave
shearing out/weakening as it pushes into southeast IL late today and
expect snow band to continue to weaken as well. Could be some light
rain in southeast IL late this afternoon before switching to light
snow, but less than 1 inch of snow accumulations there before ending
by mid evening. Clouds to decrease from the nw later this evening
and overnight as nnw winds 10-20 mph and some higher gusts of 20-25
mph diminish as well especially overnight as 1036 mb arctic high
pressure over the central Dakotas settles to the IA/MO/IL border
area by mid morning Thu. Wind chills approach 15 below zero between
2-9 am north of peoria but will hold off on wind chill advisory as
its a small area and window for this occurrence with winds becoming
light overnight. Lows overnight range from zero to 7 below zero from
Lincoln north to around 10F se of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Morning upper air shows digging shortwave through ND into MN
tracking southeast. Minor wave seen in moisture channel satellite
moving east from eastern NE to IA. Upper level jet streak in WY-NE.
Upper waves have triggered enough lift north of the southwest MO to
central IL surface front. 850mb shows weak fetch of moisture into
the region, triggering the snow development and moving it over
region through the day.
Overnight system will continue to track to the east, with snow
tappering off and moving to east. this will allow frigid 850mb cold
air to flow into area overnight, with high center by morning over
region, resulting in wind chill advisory over northern sections.
Models consistant in continued upper level northwest flow, which
will push high center to east and allow weak southerly low level
flow for late in the week through start of weekend.
For weekend, weak wave develops surface low on front, moves over
central IL. Very little upper support for feature, so lowered pops
Sat night, Sun, and Sun night to slight chance. For Wed, more
significant wave moves through the Great Lakes with trailing cold
front. With continue slight chance pops with front passage.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Improving weather expected this evening with most TAF sites
experiencing VFR conditions by 03z. The snow continues to shift
quickly off to our southeast late this afternoon and that trend
will continue into the early evening hours. Satellite data
indicates clearing taking place just to the northwest of PIA
with a steady movement to the southeast. The gusty northwest
winds will diminish this evening as the center of our next cold
air mass settles into the area by Thursday morning. Look for
wind speeds of 12 to 17 kts this evening to diminish to less
than 5 kts after midnight at all sites.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
436 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 434 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO REFINE POPS TO ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
BEFORE ENDING RAPIDLY AS IT HAS DONE UPSTREAM IN NORTHEAST IOWA
THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE...MINOR HOURLY TEMP UPDATES THROUGH
ROUTINE PROCEDURES SENT. NO CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT SNOWS
ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD 12Z.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HAVE A BAND OF WAA SNOW FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF K9V9 WITH A WARM FRONT
RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WEAK TROFS WERE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST. A NARROW TONGUE OF 30 DEGREE DEW
POINTS RAN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SAID TRENDS. THE FORCING
CREATING THE SNOW GENERALLY LINES UP WITH THE ADVECTION IN THE
800-825 MB LAYER. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONVERGENCE/FORCING WILL
CLEAR THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.
THUS WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE BAND. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SEE EITHER NO SNOW OR JUST A FEW
FLURRIES FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
BRIEF QUIET AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...RAPID SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SURGES
INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK OUT DURING THE MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. THE FORCING/MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK
SHUT DOWN OF THE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SNOW PERSISTING UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
FAIRLY RAPID END TO THE SNOW.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING MAY OCCUR BETWEEN I-80 AND HIGHWAY 30.
AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE ROUGHLY AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE
SHOULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO PLANS ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY WILL BE
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE COMING SNOW. ..08..
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...1037+ MB CANADIAN RIDGE STILL ON
TRACK TO DUMP DOWN THE PLAINS/UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING WITH A SCOURING EFFECT ON CLOUDS/ANY LINGERING
PRECIP. 12Z MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD PROFILES SUCH AS -13C TO
-18C H925 MB TEMPS OVER SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK FOR A TEMP BOTTOM-OUT
AS LONG AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR. WITH
INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING SFC WINDS
OF 5-10 MPH INTO THU MORNING...AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE MO RVR
VALLEY DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...BOTH THESE IDEAL
RADIATE-OUT PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE SO IDEAL. BUT WILL BANK ON THE DEEP
SNOW COVER AND SFC WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE AND KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA
REACHING LOWS OF -8 TO -12F ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...TO -3 TO -9F TO
THE SOUTH. EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF 3-6 MPH WILL STILL GENERATE -15 TO
-25F WIND CHILLS ACRS THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO MID THU MORNING. THUS AN ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EVENTUALLY
ISSUED.
RETURN FLOW STREAMS BACK NORTHWARD BEHIND PASSING RIDGE AXIS FOR
LATE THU AFTERNOON HIGHS. DEPENDING ON WIND SPEED DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET THU EVENING...THU NIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR FROM SUNSET THROUGH
9-10 PM CST OR SO...BEFORE DOING A STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND INTO
FRI MORNING. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
DAMPENING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE CLIPPER STORM TRACK AND
LLVL BAROCLINICITY GETTING SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
BULK OF THE SOLUTION SUGGEST FRI TO BE A WARM SECTOR DAY SOUTH OF
A PASSING WAVE ACRS MN INTO WI...THE WARM DRAW UP ACRS THE CWA
WOULD PRODUCE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW
COVER...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE 30S
ALTHOUGH A 40 STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. SFC WAVE AND FRONT SLIP
THRU THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BUT POST-LOW COOL DOWN NOTHING EXTREME.
WITH SOME SNOW MELT JUICING THE SFC LAYER ON FRI...ANY SFC WINDS
GOING LIGHT OR LIGHT CONVERGENT MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG IF ANY
PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OCCUR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST FLATTENED FLOW TO
USHER THE NEXT WAVE/WHICH IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
RIDGE DAMPENING/ ACRS THE NORTH HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRE-SYSTEM WARMING MAY MAKE FOR MORE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I80 FOR SAT...AND CONTINUED SNOW MELTING.
WITH CONVERGENT RETURN FLOW ALONG ANOTHER WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM...FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS MAY LIMIT TEMPS SAT TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN MIND IF THIS OCCURS. BULK OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEF ZONE SNOWS WOULD STAY ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN INTO
WI/LOWER MI WITH THE CURRENT CLIPPER TRACK FRO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BUT SOME PRECIP WOULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...SAT
EVENING A WINTERY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 30...WITH WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWERS...OR RAIN-SNOW SHOWER MIX THEN POSSIBLE DOWN TO
HWY 30 OR SOUTH TO I80 ON SUNDAY IN THE SYSTEM/S WAKE. WILL KEEP
GENERAL BLEND OF POPS AND MAINLY SNOW WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
SAT NIGHT IN VCNTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLES AND LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST
A BRIEF CHILL DOWN MONDAY BEHIND WHAT EVER SYSTEM CAN MOVE ACRS THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH PACIFIC JET ENERGY THEN BILLOWING IT/S WAY
EASTWARD FOR A MEAN FLOW FLATTEN-OUT AGAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD ALSO BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPS AGAIN AS WELL AS HIGHER DPTS FROM
THE SOUTH EATING AT THE SNOW COVER. WAA TYPE PRECIP WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE CWA TUE INTO NEXT WED...BUT OF COURSE TIMING
AND AREAL EXTENT TOO DISTANT TO PLACE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT KDBQ WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR WITH SNOW THROUGH 00Z/04 AND THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AFT 00Z/04.
KCID/KMLI/KBRL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 09Z/04 AND THEN SLOWLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 09Z/04. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFT 12Z/04.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HAVE A BAND OF WAA SNOW FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF K9V9 WITH A WARM FRONT
RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WEAK TROFS WERE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST. A NARROW TONGUE OF 30 DEGREE DEW
POINTS RAN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SAID TRENDS. THE FORCING
CREATING THE SNOW GENERALLY LINES UP WITH THE ADVECTION IN THE
800-825 MB LAYER. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONVERGENCE/FORCING WILL
CLEAR THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.
THUS WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE BAND. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SEE EITHER NO SNOW OR JUST A FEW
FLURRIES FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
BRIEF QUIET AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...RAPID SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SURGES
INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK OUT DURING THE MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. THE FORCING/MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK
SHUT DOWN OF THE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SNOW PERSISTING UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
FAIRLY RAPID END TO THE SNOW.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING MAY OCCUR BETWEEN I-80 AND HIGHWAY 30.
AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE ROUGHLY AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE
SHOULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO PLANS ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY WILL BE
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE COMING SNOW. ..08..
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...1037+ MB CANADIAN RIDGE STILL ON
TRACK TO DUMP DOWN THE PLAINS/UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING WITH A SCOURING EFFECT ON CLOUDS/ANY LINGERING
PRECIP. 12Z MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD PROFILES SUCH AS -13C TO
-18C H925 MB TEMPS OVER SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK FOR A TEMP BOTTOM-OUT
AS LONG AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR. WITH
INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING SFC WINDS
OF 5-10 MPH INTO THU MORNING...AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE MO RVR
VALLEY DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...BOTH THESE IDEAL
RADIATE-OUT PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE SO IDEAL. BUT WILL BANK ON THE DEEP
SNOW COVER AND SFC WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE AND KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA
REACHING LOWS OF -8 TO -12F ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...TO -3 TO -9F TO
THE SOUTH. EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF 3-6 MPH WILL STILL GENERATE -15 TO
-25F WIND CHILLS ACRS THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO MID THU MORNING. THUS AN ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EVENTUALLY
ISSUED.
RETURN FLOW STREAMS BACK NORTHWARD BEHIND PASSING RIDGE AXIS FOR
LATE THU AFTERNOON HIGHS. DEPENDING ON WIND SPEED DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET THU EVENING...THU NIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR FROM SUNSET THROUGH
9-10 PM CST OR SO...BEFORE DOING A STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND INTO
FRI MORNING. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
DAMPENING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE CLIPPER STORM TRACK AND
LLVL BAROCLINICITY GETTING SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
BULK OF THE SOLUTION SUGGEST FRI TO BE A WARM SECTOR DAY SOUTH OF
A PASSING WAVE ACRS MN INTO WI...THE WARM DRAW UP ACRS THE CWA
WOULD PRODUCE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW
COVER...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE 30S
ALTHOUGH A 40 STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. SFC WAVE AND FRONT SLIP
THRU THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BUT POST-LOW COOL DOWN NOTHING EXTREME.
WITH SOME SNOW MELT JUICING THE SFC LAYER ON FRI...ANY SFC WINDS
GOING LIGHT OR LIGHT CONVERGENT MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG IF ANY
PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OCCUR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST FLATTENED FLOW TO
USHER THE NEXT WAVE/WHICH IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
RIDGE DAMPENING/ ACRS THE NORTH HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRE-SYSTEM WARMING MAY MAKE FOR MORE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I80 FOR SAT...AND CONTINUED SNOW MELTING.
WITH CONVERGENT RETURN FLOW ALONG ANOTHER WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM...FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS MAY LIMIT TEMPS SAT TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN MIND IF THIS OCCURS. BULK OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEF ZONE SNOWS WOULD STAY ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN INTO
WI/LOWER MI WITH THE CURRENT CLIPPER TRACK FRO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BUT SOME PRECIP WOULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...SAT
EVENING A WINTERY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 30...WITH WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWERS...OR RAIN-SNOW SHOWER MIX THEN POSSIBLE DOWN TO
HWY 30 OR SOUTH TO I80 ON SUNDAY IN THE SYSTEM/S WAKE. WILL KEEP
GENERAL BLEND OF POPS AND MAINLY SNOW WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
SAT NIGHT IN VCNTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLES AND LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST
A BRIEF CHILL DOWN MONDAY BEHIND WHAT EVER SYSTEM CAN MOVE ACRS THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH PACIFIC JET ENERGY THEN BILLOWING IT/S WAY
EASTWARD FOR A MEAN FLOW FLATTEN-OUT AGAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD ALSO BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPS AGAIN AS WELL AS HIGHER DPTS FROM
THE SOUTH EATING AT THE SNOW COVER. WAA TYPE PRECIP WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE CWA TUE INTO NEXT WED...BUT OF COURSE TIMING
AND AREAL EXTENT TOO DISTANT TO PLACE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT KDBQ WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR WITH SNOW THROUGH 00Z/04 AND THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AFT 00Z/04.
KCID/KMLI/KBRL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 09Z/04 AND THEN SLOWLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 09Z/04. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFT 12Z/04.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
423 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
RADAR RETURNS INDICATED LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
IR IMAGERY INDICATED OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
AREA. RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STEADY
PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL STREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT.
ALL SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME FOG POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT SEEM TO SHOW
A WELL DEFINED SATURATED LAYER OVER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...SO
NO FOG IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE MID MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH WARM FRONT.
A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOPPING THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
ABOVE 7KFT AGL. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
MVFR CIGS AT KGLD SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE EVENING BEHIND
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. KMCK IS
ALREADY VFR AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED IN CENTRAL CANADA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY AHEAD OF AVAILABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT MOST MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW BACKING OFF
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH. BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH
MOST OF THE JET LIFT IS NOW DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CHANCES AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR RECEIVING GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
DIMINISHING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
DIP FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO STILL END
UP TO 2 INCHES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL
END SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES WITH A STRONGER 40KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83...WHICH COULD BRING SOME MARGINAL
BLOWING SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT. RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
THE SAME...WITH WESTERN RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
ON MONDAY AND HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND SHIFTS. THE MAIN WEATHER TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WILL BE A WINTER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND BRING SOME SNOW. LIGHT SNOW WILL
AFFECT KMCK FIRST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL
BRING LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN
AFFECT KGLD TOWARD MID MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GUST UP TO 30
KTS...WHICH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE
TAFS...BUT IT COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR FUTURE TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
240 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE JET
FROM OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LED TO PERSISTENT LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MID-AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, WHICH IS
WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS
FOUND NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TONIGHT ONCE AN
ARCTIC PERTURBATION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
(TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY). SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT BEING THE RESULT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION, LOW CLOUD COVER, AND STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. WE BOOSTED THE WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 23 TO 26 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR ESPECIALLY THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING
STRONGEST THE FEW HOURS AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY UPPER TEENS,
PERHAPS, BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS FAR
AS THE SNOW FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED ON THAT
FRONT. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT UP IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST (CENTRAL KANSAS) CLOSER TO WHERE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 700MB FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP AROUND HAYS. THE WRF-NMM HAS THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH, BUT SINCE IT IS THE OUTLIER, MUCH LESS
WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THIS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF A BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BE EXITING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LESSER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SOONER IN THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER, IS SHOWING
THE WAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSING OFF AS IT DOES.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8 TO 12 KNOTS IN A LIGHT
LEE TROUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT, REACHING HAYS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AND GARDEN CITY/DODGE CITY ABOUT AN HOUR TO HOUR AND A
HALF LATER. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CEILING EXPECTED
TO FALL DOWN WELL INTO THE IFR RANGE AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR AT
TIMES JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING. WHILE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE HAYS AREA,
WE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW
IMPACT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 26 29 14 49 / 0 20 10 0
GCK 28 31 15 54 / 0 20 10 0
EHA 34 38 19 57 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 29 34 17 53 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 24 26 12 46 / 0 60 10 0
P28 30 32 12 39 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
854 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 500MB VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
NAM SHORT RANGE MODEL INITIALIZED A VORT MAX WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY OVER FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX TO CREATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WILL INSERT 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST ZONES THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE...AFTN PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. 18
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS SATURATED AT THE SFC UP TO 940 MB.
DRIER AIR ALREADY PRESENT JUST ABOVE. A 15 F INVERSION IS FROM
THE SFC TO 900 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY BELOW THE INVERSION AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ABOVE. THE PEAK WIND IS 93 KTS AT 150 MB.
AK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LIKELY PAST ITS
PEAK OF IMPACT. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. DRY SLOT APPEARS TO BE COMING IN QUICKLY WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THIS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS DRYER AIR MOVING IN AS WELL. THUS
HAVING LESS FAITH IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MUCH PRECIP
WILL BE AROUND AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES CAPTURE THE CURRENT SWATH IN
PLACE BUT SHOWS NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COMING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THATS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/LA BORDER. BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE...THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. THEREFORE...HAVE
SUBSTANTIALLY DROPPED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 06Z AND THEN
NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...COULD THERE/S A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE RAIN COULD MOVE THROUGH SOONER AND ALL BE DONE BY 00Z.
BASICALLY SAYING THAT THE POP FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
OF TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT...SO NOT THINKING THAT TEMPS
WILL FALL TOO MUCH. THUS HAVE KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND OPEN WHILE IT MERGES WITH A MUCH
DEEP THROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER
TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
BRIEF MID WEEK WARMUP IS POSSIBLE IF RIDGE TO THE WEST FINALLY MAKES
ITS WAY OVER THE AREA.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WITH DRY
SLOT SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUD
DECK NEAR FL010 TO BE VARIABLE IN AREAL COVERAGE AT MOST TERMINALS
WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR SEVERAL TIMES
DURING THE NIGHT. 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS...BUT MAINTAIN SOME NEAR FL050 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. 35
MARINE...
WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
BEEN A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIGS IN OUR OUTER
COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE
WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE
SOUNDS AND LAKE BORGNE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
HEADLINE FREE...BUT IT MAY GET CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LATE
TONIGHT.
ONCE CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HEADLINES PROBABLY NECESSARY AT THAT
POINT. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 51 29 56 / 30 10 0 0
BTR 42 54 33 57 / 30 10 0 0
ASD 43 58 34 57 / 30 10 0 0
MSY 46 56 38 56 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 43 57 34 55 / 30 10 0 0
PQL 41 57 32 55 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
722 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS SATURATED AT THE SFC UP TO 940 MB.
DRIER AIR ALREADY PRESENT JUST ABOVE. A 15 F INVERSION IS FROM
THE SFC TO 900 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY BELOW THE INVERSION AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ABOVE. THE PEAK WIND IS 93 KTS AT 150 MB.
AK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LIKELY PAST ITS
PEAK OF IMPACT. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. DRY SLOT APPEARS TO BE COMING IN QUICKLY WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THIS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS DRYER AIR MOVING IN AS WELL. THUS
HAVING LESS FAITH IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MUCH PRECIP
WILL BE AROUND AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES CAPTURE THE CURRENT SWATH IN
PLACE BUT SHOWS NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COMING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THATS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/LA BORDER. BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE...THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. THEREFORE...HAVE
SUBSTANTIALLY DROPPED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 06Z AND THEN
NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...COULD THERE/S A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE RAIN COULD MOVE THROUGH SOONER AND ALL BE DONE BY 00Z.
BASICALLY SAYING THAT THE POP FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
OF TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT...SO NOT THINKING THAT TEMPS
WILL FALL TOO MUCH. THUS HAVE KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND OPEN WHILE IT MERGES WITH A MUCH
DEEP THROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER
TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
BRIEF MID WEEK WARMUP IS POSSIBLE IF RIDGE TO THE WEST FINALLY MAKES
ITS WAY OVER THE AREA.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WITH DRY
SLOT SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUD
DECK NEAR FL010 TO BE VARIABLE IN AREAL COVERAGE AT MOST TERMINALS
WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR SEVERAL TIMES
DURING THE NIGHT. 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS...BUT MAINTAIN SOME NEAR FL050 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. 35
MARINE...
WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
BEEN A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIGS IN OUR OUTER
COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE
WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE
SOUNDS AND LAKE BORGNE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
HEADLINE FREE...BUT IT MAY GET CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LATE
TONIGHT.
ONCE CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HEADLINES PROBABLY NECESSARY AT THAT
POINT. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 41 51 29 / 90 20 10 0
BTR 50 42 54 33 / 90 20 10 0
ASD 53 43 58 34 / 100 20 10 0
MSY 51 46 56 38 / 100 20 10 0
GPT 52 43 57 34 / 100 20 10 0
PQL 53 41 57 32 / 100 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
111 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE: WE CANX WNTR WX HDLNS OVR THE WRN PTN OF THE FA
THIS UPDATE WITH STEADY SN NOW SLOWLY MOVG E INTO NB PROV. WE WILL
LIKELY CANX THE REST OF THE WNTR WX HDLNS THE NEXT UPDATE...AT
WHICH POINT WE WILL DETERMINE WHAT PTN OF THE FA NEEDS WIND CHILL
HDLNS AFT WE UPDATE WINDS. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE
REST OF THE NGT INTO TUE MORN WERE MODIFIED BASED ON TRENDS SEEN
FROM MDNGT OBS.
PREV DISC: 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 985MB LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
SE TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVIER BANDING STILL OCCURRING ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE STORM W/SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MAINE INCLUDING WASHINGTON COUNTY. RECEIVED REPORTS OF
12-16 INCHES ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST. AS ONE
TRAVELS NORTH, REPORTS SHOW 6-9 INCHES W/UP TO 6 INCHES IN SE
AROOSTOOK COUNT. EARLIER REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY
IN THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGION. BANDING HAS SHIFTED E OF THE
BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR AND THE LATEST TREND FROM THE RAP AND NAM12
INDICATE THINGS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4
HRS. WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE TO COVER FOR THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED.
PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. SOME CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MOSTLY
EARLY...WITH THE SNOW THEN TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES THURSDAY REGARDING WHETHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OR WHETHER LOW PRESSURE
COULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY
HAVE KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE
DEVELOPING LOW SCENARIO IS CORRECT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MAJOR STORM
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT. OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL)
OF THEIR ENSEMBLES SEND THE WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY SYSTEM FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO WHERE ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT IS TOO FAR EAST TO IMPACT MAINE. HOWEVER, 0Z UKMET AND 0/12Z
ECMWF MODELS HANG THE ARCTIC FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WITH A NOR`EASTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO RECONCILE THE
DIFFERENCES...HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR VS LOW PRESSURE AND SNOWY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AM QUITE HESITANT TO LEAN EITHER WAY AT
THIS POINT AND WENT WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH. WILL BE EXTREMELY
INTERESTING TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT DAY.
THE IMPACT OF AN ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL STORM WOULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXTREME RECENT SNOWFALL. EASTPORT
RECEIVED 57.9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE EIGHT DAYS FROM JAN 25 TO FEB
1, WITH ANOTHER 16 OR SO INCHES ON THE WAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
MACHIAS COOP OBSERVER`S 46.1 INCHES OF SNOW IN AN 8 DAY PERIOD
SHATTERS THAT COOP STATION`S 8-DAY RECORD OF 33.5 INCHES FROM
1964. RECORDS AT MACHIAS GO BACK TO 1893. THE EASTPORT 57.9 INCHES
IS FROM A COCORAHS OBSERVER, BUT A RECENTLY DECOMMISSIONED COOP
SITE IN EASTPORT HAS AN 8 DAY SNOWFALL RECORD OF 33 INCHES WITH
RECORDS FROM 1895 TO 2013, SO THE 57.9 INCHES WOULD SHATTER THAT.
BANGOR HAS HAD 31.4 INCHES IN THE 8 DAY PERIOD, WHICH IS NUMBER 3
FOR THEM, WITH THE RECORD 8 DAY SNOWFALL BEING 37 INCHES IN 1972.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ARE ALREADY HAVING A VERY
MEMORABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER WHICH IS GETTING MORE MEMORABLE BY THE
MOMENT WITH THE CURRENT STORM. I WOULD SAY THE CURRENT MONDAY STORM
IS PUSHING DOWNEAST MAINE TO THE LIMIT, NOT TO MENTION ANOTHER
POTENTIAL STORM AFTER THIS ONE.
THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS/CANADIAN
HAVE A FAIRLY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST COLD AND DRY. EITHER WAY, SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK COLDER THAN NORMAL, NOT THAT IS HASN`T BEEN
COLDER THAN NORMAL ALREADY AS OF LATE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
STORMINESS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODELS ARE IN
EXTREMELY POOR AGREEMENT SO HESITANT TO SAY MUCH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW TONIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
LATE THIS EVENING THEN VFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OR WHETHER LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS UP FOR THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ALSO, A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PULLS BITTERLY COLD AIR OVER THE WATERS ON
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ002.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-
003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ005-006-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
936 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE SC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING NNE
ALONG COASTAL FRONT ORIENTED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH
UP FROM COASTAL GA/SC INTO COASTAL SE NC AT 02Z. RUC COND PRES DEF
AND 295-305K ISENTROPIC SFC FIELDS ALL SHOWING RAIN ASCENDING THE
NC CRYSTAL COAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN MOVING
ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR AREA MAINLY SE OF HWY 158 ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC FROM AROUND 11 PM THROUGH 2-3AM...
EVENTUALLY BRINGING LOWERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN CHCS TO FAR
E-SE VA FROM 12 AM THROUGH DAWN THU MORNING. ACCORDINGLY, LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS 70-90% CONTINUE ACROSS (CSTL) NE NC ZONES
OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT). HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST INLAND
WITH FORECAST MODELS/SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ORIENTING
SHRAS ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY THU. HOWEVER, HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER PER LATEST SAT IMAGERY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
CDFNT TO THE WEST ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK THU IN FAR W-NW PORTIONS
OF THE FA. BUFR SOUNDINGS OVER EASTERN SHORE LOCATIONS AND HRRR
BOTH INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/SLEET
PELLETS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH TO OVERCAST SOUTH WITH EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS FM LOW TO MID
30S NW TO ~40 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LO PRES MOVES OUT TO SEA THU...W/ ARCTIC CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH
THE FA. HANGING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC POPS AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN THE
MRNG...OTRW VRB CLDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHWRS W/ OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
CDFNT. WILL HAVE MIXED RA/SN FOR NE SECTIONS OF FA AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. CLEARING XPCD FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN FM W-E AS NW WNDS
BECOME GUSTY TO 30 TO 40 MPH. HI TEMPS TO BE REACHED IN THE
MRNG/MIDDAY...THEN FALL OFF (BY LT IN THE AFTN). HI TEMPS IN THE
M/U30S NW TO THE M40S SE.
CANADIAN SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW BEGINNING THU EVE AND
SETTLES OVER THE REGION LT THU NGT THROUGH FRI. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
DIMINISH (TO LGT W OF THE BAY) AFT MDNGT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NR
MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MNLY SKC W/ LO TEMPS MNLY 15 TO 20F.
MSTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY FRI AS WNDS ARE SLOW TO BECOME SW. HI TEMPS
FM 35 TO 40F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M/U40S (WELL) INLAND. SFC HI
PRES RMNS TO THE S OF THE RGN FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...RESULTING IN
CONTD MODERATION. SEASONABLY COLD FRI NGT UNDER CLR-PCLDY
CONDS...W/ LO TEMPS MNLY FM 25 TO 30F. PARTLY SUNNY...MILDER
AGAIN SAT W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M/U40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M50S
(WELL) INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHES FM THE W AND DEVELOPS A SFC LO OVER THE REGION BY MON.
FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE OH VALLEY. WITH
S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S
EVERYWHERE TO NR 60 OVER SRN AREAS ON SUN. PCPN ARRIVE LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT...IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN AS THE FA INITIALLY IS
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR. GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN (50% POPS) THEN
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE SFC LO AND ASSOCIATED UPR-LEVEL TROF
SLIDE THRU THE AREA. TRACK OF THIS SFC LO AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT CAN MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LO WHILE PCPN
CONTINUES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY WINTER WX OCCURS. FOR
NOW...FORECAST CALLS FOR RAIN SE HALF OF AREA AND RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
NW HALF OF AREA FOR MON NIGHT/TUE. CONDS THEN DRY OUT FOR TUE NGT
AND WED AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NEWD TO
JUST OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO NE NC AND FAR SE VA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING FOCUSED
ALONG THE COAST FROM NE NC TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN...HOWEVER SNOW MAY MIX IN
BRIEFLY AFTER 05/1100Z IN MD. KECG MAY EXPERIENCE LIMITED CIGS/VIS
DUE TO PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT IS POISED TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THE
COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SUBSTANTIALLY BTWN THE DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE. NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...
BECOMING GUSTY BY MID-MORNING AND REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS AT KRIC SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND
25KT WHILE GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING
KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG...SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 30-35KT. SKIES CLEAR
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTN ALONG THE COAST BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
NW-N WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 15-20KT AFTER
06/0500Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPING LO
PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY.
THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TNGT/THU MORNG...AS LO
PRES SLIDES UP THE SE COASTLINE. AS FOR HEADLINES...MAINTAINED ALL
PREVIOUS HAZARDS WITH A GALE WARNING OVER THE BAY/SOUND/OCEAN AND
A SCA OVER THE RIVERS. 44009 HAS BEEN AVGG AROUND 4 1/2 FT THIS
AFTN BUT THINK THIS WILL LWR TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENG/OVRNGT BEFORE
THE GALE CONDS START THU MORNG. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED OVER
THE BAY AND CSTL WTRS THU AFTN AND ERLY EVENG...WITH WINDS THEN
SUBSIDING LATE THU NGT. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS
OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 7-9 FT OUT 20 NM. SFC HI PRES AND IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS THEN FOR FRI AND SAT. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
444 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MUCH
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEARING AND WINDS DISSIPATING. STILL HAVENT COMPLETELY CALMED THE
WINDS AT THIS HOUR...SO TEMPS HAVE NOT BOTTOMED OUT. COLDEST
READINGS THUS FAR ARE NORTH OF I-80 WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH...THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS DRAMATICALLY AS RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND AN OLDER/RAGGED SNOWPACK HAS KEEP SLOWED THE COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING TEMPS EVERYWHERE TO GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THERE WILL BE A MIX OF
RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE RAP IS BULLISH ON BRINGING LOW TO MID STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY
OVER SRN WV/KY BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA. NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLN
AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR SHOULD HELP EAT AWAY THIS CLOUD DECK AS
THE LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTANT SKY COVER IS
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
A QUICK ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DROP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY
STREAMING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL STAY RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF. DESPITE THE WAA...TEMPS WILL
STAY LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL BE THE P-TYPE EVERYWHERE THAT
PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED. WITH A LACK OF A SRLY MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE LOW...THE SYSTEM OVERALL IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT TRACK STAYING JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE...ULTIMATELY KEEPING THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA
NORTH OF I-80. THOSE AREAS SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO TOTAL
ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAY BREAK WEDS. ELSEWHERE...LESS THAN AN
INCH IS EXPECTED.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-WEEK CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SNOW FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. STARTING FROM NEAR NORMAL LOWS WEDS MORNING STRONG WAA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 30S AND IN SOME CASES
LOW 40S. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCURS WEDS IN THE
QUASI-WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDS
EVENING...DROPPING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE
TEENS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COPIOUS CAA BEHIND WILL
AMPLIFY THE TROF AND STRENGTHEN THE FRONT ON ARRIVAL. EVERYONE WILL
RECEIVE SNOW AS THE FRONT CROSSES...THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH.
WPC QPF SEEMS RATHER HIGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG
OUTSIDE MOISTURE FEED AND THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN OF THE INCOMING
AIRMASS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WPC QPF WAS CUT WITH A BLEND OF
GFS/SREF WHICH KNOCKS THE ORIGINAL DOWN BY HALF. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD
START OUT NEAR 10:1...WHICH GIVES EVERYONE AN 1-2" WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY COLD AND WILL KEEP THURS HIGH
TEMPS SUPPRESSED IN THE TEENS. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -20C BY
MIDDAY THURS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AIDING THE GENERATION OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW RATIOS WILL GROW IN THE
POST-FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS AS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COMES
CRASHING DOWN TO THE LLVLS. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...SNOW
TOTALS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL INSERT MENTION OF THIS
IN HWO FOR NOW.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...FRIDAY MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD AS CLOUD
COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT AFTER A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST AROUND ZERO DEGREES ON AVERAGE ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND
AFTER TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH IN REGARDS TO WIND
SPEEDS...THERE IS DEFINITELY POTENTIAL THAT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL MEET/EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS BASED LARGELY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH WITH LOCATIONS
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
MVFR/VFR ELSEWHERE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AND A 50-70% CHANCE OF IFR
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...SATURDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
155 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MUCH
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEARING AND WINDS DISSIPATING. STILL HAVENT COMPLETELY CALMED THE
WINDS AT THIS HOUR...SO TEMPS HAVE NOT BOTTOMED OUT. COLDEST
READINGS THUS FAR ARE NORTH OF I-80 WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH...THE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS DRAMATICALLY AS RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND AN OLDER/RAGGED SNOWPACK HAS KEEP SLOWED THE COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING TEMPS EVERYWHERE TO GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THERE WILL BE A MIX OF
RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE RAP IS BULLISH ON BRINGING LOW TO MID STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY
OVER SRN WV/KY BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA. NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLN
AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR SHOULD HELP EAT AWAY THIS CLOUD DECK AS
THE LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTANT SKY COVER IS
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
A QUICK ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DROP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY
STREAMING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL STAY RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF. DESPITE THE WAA...TEMPS WILL
STAY LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL BE THE P-TYPE EVERYWHERE THAT
PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED. WITH A LACK OF A SRLY MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE LOW...THE SYSTEM OVERALL IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT TRACK STAYING JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE...ULTIMATELY KEEPING THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA
NORTH OF I-80. THOSE AREAS SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO TOTAL
ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAY BREAK WEDS. ELSEWHERE...LESS THAN AN
INCH IS EXPECTED.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS I-80. LOOKS TO BE A
QUICK INCH FAR NORTH WITH POSSIBLY A COATING DOWN TO THE TURNPIKE.
WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY. NEXT STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MORE OF A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH AN
INCH OR TWO AS SNOW ENDS EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER WITH STEADY
OR FALLING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY BLD IN LT IN THE WK BEFORE BROAD
UPR TROFG SETS UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS LTR IN THE WKEND THRU MON
RETURNING SNW SHWR CHCS TO THE RGN. AFT WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS LT IN
THE WK...SOME LIMITED RECOVERY IS EXPD AHD OF THE NXT SHRTWV LTR
IN THE WKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONE BAND OF LAKE HURON SNOW SHOWERS IS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
KAGC TOWARD KLBE AND KFKL THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS BAND
LIKELY WILL DROP TO MVFR AS THEY DISSIPATE SLOWLY WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. STRATUS LIKEWISE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME LIGHT. FRIES
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A WED-THU CDFNT...AND AGAIN SAT WITH
ANOTHER APCHG CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
450 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NOTED UPSTREAM. THE
FIRST IS TRACKING INTO CNTRL/SRN MN...AND THE SECOND IS OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA. THE FORMER IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF -SN THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI. THE LATTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES
LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. AS FOR ONGOING LES...LES HAS BEEN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DISORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME
DOMINANT BANDS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ONE IN PARTICULAR WAS AFFECTING THE HOUGHTON VCNTY EARLIER TODAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...IMPACTS HAVE
PROBABLY BEEN LIMITED. WITH DAYTIME WEAKENING OF LAND BREEZES AND
LOCALIZED COVERGENCE...THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED.
FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI INTO LWR MI TONIGHT. BASED
ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE NRN EDGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW MAY JUST CLIP SCNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL REACH
NRN MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. IN RESPONSE...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION
LIFTING FROM 4KFT THIS EVENING TO UPWARDS OF 10KFT OR MORE BY 12Z
WED. IN NW UPPER MI...HIGH RES MODELS TEND TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. THIS IS A TYPICAL
LOCATION FOR CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS UNDER SYNOPTIC WNW FLOW DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO WIND AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
WHEN WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THEY WILL BE TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RISING INVERSION/STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE...LES ADVY IS
WARRANTED FOR ONTONAGON/NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE DEPARTS IN THE MORNING...A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING IN THE AFTN. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A
SLOW FALL OF THE INVERSION TO AROUND 6KFT BY LATE AFTN. DGZ WILL
STILL OCCUPY AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE SFC WED AFTN
UNDER CAA REGIME WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO -25 TO -27C BY EVENING.
SO...HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS UPWARDS OF 25 OR MORE TO 1 TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO UNDER 20 TO 1 WED. IN THE END...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES BY WED EVENING WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS
BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS...CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE MUCH GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IF THE
CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONGLY FOCUSED. INCREASING NW WINDS
WED...GUSTING TO 20-30MPH... WILL LEAD TO BLSN AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VIS. MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVY FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO BLSN
ON WED.
TO THE E...FCST IS MUCH MORE CHALLENGING. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY SOLID LOOKING ICE COVER FROM WHITEFISH BAY N TO
MICHIPICOTEN BAY SHOULD LEAD TO A HEALTHY LAND BREEZE PUSHING WELL
OUT INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. END RESULT WILL BE A STRONG CONVERGENCE
ZONE DEVELOPING BTWN THIS WESTWARD PUSHING LAND BREEZE AND THE WNW
WINDS OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. VERY HVY SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
HOW THE SNOW BAND WILL EVOLVE...WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED AND WHETHER
MUCH OF IT WILL IMPACT UPPER MI. STEADY WNW WINDS OF 25-30KT UP AT
850MB DO SUGGEST SOME OF THIS HVY SNOW SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF ERN
ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES ATTM. WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR TONIGHT. ON
WED...STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW WILL OVERCOME THE LAND BREEZE AND PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOW ONSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF WNW MULTI-
BAND LES. WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR ALGER (MAINLY E HALF OF THE
COUNTY) AND LUCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT).
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS)
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE
A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS
AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3
INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS
WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO.
MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE
WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING
ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT
ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT
COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO
MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE
FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS).
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT KCMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD UNDER
W TO NW WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DOMINANT SNOW BAND THAT RECENTLY
RESULTED IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT A LITTLE
THIS AFTN. SO...EXPECTATION IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...
CONDITIONS COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT TIMES. APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS.
INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO
BLSN.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN UNDER A W
WIND WITH TRAJECTORIES ACROSS LAND. AS WINDS VEER A BIT TONIGHT/WED
MORNING TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES...
EXPECT -SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AND THEN BACK SW AND
STRENGTHEN ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. THE SW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THU
AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15-25KT
OUT OF THE N FOR SAT. WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE
INTO SUN AS THEY VEER EASTERLY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
CONCERNS FOCUS ON LES AND ADVISORY HEADLINES OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND EXITING LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZES OFF
UPPER MI HAS FOCUSED A DOMINANT LES BAND ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BTWN HOUGHTON AND
CALUMET. VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT KCMX AS THIS BAND
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT.
TODAY... WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DEPARTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WE
ALREADY MAY BE SEEING SIGNS OF DOMINANT LES BAND WEAKENING OVER SRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING WHERE THE LES BAND IS LOCATED AS
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MAY ALSO BE
WEAKENING SOME WITHIN THE PAST HR. LOOKING AT MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THIS DOMINANT LES BAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AS INVERSION BASES LOWER FM 5KFT TO 3KFT...
DRYING OCCURS BLO THE INVERSION...AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.
280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW AND
FAR NE UPPER MI WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING -19/-20C. BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRYING BLO INVERSION AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
NW AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG ERN SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LES ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW-NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH
12Z BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO EXTEND ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL
SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE AMOUNTS
WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY THIS EVENING...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COLDER 8H TEMPS TO THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO -21C OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND -24C WEST WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 4KFT TO AROUND
7KFT BY 12Z WED ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN CWA AS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
CONSIDER LES ADVISORIES FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT).
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS)
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE
A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS
AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3
INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS
WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO.
MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE
WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING
ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT
ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT
COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO
MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE
FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS).
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT KCMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD UNDER
W TO NW WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DOMINANT SNOW BAND THAT RECENTLY
RESULTED IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT A LITTLE
THIS AFTN. SO...EXPECTATION IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...
CONDITIONS COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT TIMES. APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS.
INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO
BLSN.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN UNDER A W
WIND WITH TRAJECTORIES ACROSS LAND. AS WINDS VEER A BIT TONIGHT/WED
MORNING TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES...
EXPECT -SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO NEAR GALES ARE
POSSIBLE WED...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
CONCERNS FOCUS ON LES AND ADVISORY HEADLINES OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND EXITING LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZES OFF
UPPER MI HAS FOCUSED A DOMINANT LES BAND ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BTWN HOUGHTON AND
CALUMET. VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT KCMX AS THIS BAND
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT.
TODAY... WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DEPARTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WE
ALREADY MAY BE SEEING SIGNS OF DOMINANT LES BAND WEAKENING OVER SRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING WHERE THE LES BAND IS LOCATED AS
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MAY ALSO BE
WEAKENING SOME WITHIN THE PAST HR. LOOKING AT MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THIS DOMINANT LES BAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AS INVERSION BASES LOWER FM 5KFT TO 3KFT...
DRYING OCCURS BLO THE INVERSION...AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.
280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW AND
FAR NE UPPER MI WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING -19/-20C. BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRYING BLO INVERSION AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
NW AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG ERN SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LES ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW-NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH
12Z BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO EXTEND ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL
SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE AMOUNTS
WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY THIS EVENING...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COLDER 8H TEMPS TO THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO -21C OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND -24C WEST WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 4KFT TO AROUND
7KFT BY 12Z WED ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN CWA AS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
CONSIDER LES ADVISORIES FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT 12Z WED...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NW WIND LES WILL
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH WED
EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -20C TO -25C AT 12Z WED BUT WILL
DECREASE TO -25C TO -30C BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 06Z THU. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL INTO EARLY WED
NIGHT...SUPPORTING MULTI BAND LES STRUCTURE. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER
ERN UPPER MI...BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT...WHERE THE
LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND ICE COVERAGE ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORE MAY
LEAD TO A STRONGER MORE DOMINANT BAND. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 11KFT WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MEANING HEAVY LES. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER WILL BE OUT OF THE DGZ...SO DENDRITE SIZE WILL BE SMALL AND
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BELOW 20 TO 1. WHILE THIS WILL BE A LIMITATION
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE SMALL FLAKES WILL BE EFFICIENT AT
REDUCING . THEREFORE...THE GREATLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE DOMINANT HAZARD DURING THE EVENT. THE LES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THU MORNING AS
A SFC RIDGE MOVES W TO E THROUGH THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0F ALONG THE SHORELINES TO
-15F
OVER THE INTERIOR W. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE COLDER TEMPS IN
THE HWO...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES.
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE NE OF THE CWA THU EVENING INTO THU
NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
STAY NE OF THE CWA. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD RESULT ACROSS THE
NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND MAYBE FAR NERN UPPER MI WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS IF ANYTHING.
QUITE OF BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE SAT THROUGH MON. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF SYNOPTIC PRECIP
WILL RESULT IN THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW N-NE WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT /GFS VEERS WINDS TO A SLY DIRECTION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS NE WINDS INTO MON/. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND GREATER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FAVORABLE FLOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF -20C TO -25C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOWER RATIOS BUT STRONGER
LES OVERALL AND ALSO LONGER DURATION OF LES INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT KCMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD UNDER
W TO NW WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DOMINANT SNOW BAND THAT RECENTLY
RESULTED IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT A LITTLE
THIS AFTN. SO...EXPECTATION IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...
CONDITIONS COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT TIMES. APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS.
INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO
BLSN.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN UNDER A W
WIND WITH TRAJECTORIES ACROSS LAND. AS WINDS VEER A BIT TONIGHT/WED
MORNING TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES...
EXPECT -SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO NEAR GALES ARE
POSSIBLE WED...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
CONCERNS FOCUS ON LES AND ADVISORY HEADLINES OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND EXITING LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZES OFF
UPPER MI HAS FOCUSED A DOMINANT LES BAND ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BTWN HOUGHTON AND
CALUMET. VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT KCMX AS THIS BAND
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT.
TODAY... WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DEPARTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WE
ALREADY MAY BE SEEING SIGNS OF DOMINANT LES BAND WEAKENING OVER SRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING WHERE THE LES BAND IS LOCATED AS
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MAY ALSO BE
WEAKENING SOME WITHIN THE PAST HR. LOOKING AT MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THIS DOMINANT LES BAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AS INVERSION BASES LOWER FM 5KFT TO 3KFT...
DRYING OCCURS BLO THE INVERSION...AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.
280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW AND
FAR NE UPPER MI WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING -19/-20C. BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRYING BLO INVERSION AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
NW AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG ERN SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LES ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW-NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH
12Z BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO EXTEND ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL
SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE AMOUNTS
WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY THIS EVENING...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COLDER 8H TEMPS TO THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO -21C OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND -24C WEST WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 4KFT TO AROUND
7KFT BY 12Z WED ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN CWA AS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
CONSIDER LES ADVISORIES FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT 12Z WED...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NW WIND LES WILL
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH WED
EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -20C TO -25C AT 12Z WED BUT WILL
DECREASE TO -25C TO -30C BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 06Z THU. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL INTO EARLY WED
NIGHT...SUPPORTING MULTI BAND LES STRUCTURE. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER
ERN UPPER MI...BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT...WHERE THE
LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND ICE COVERAGE ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORE MAY
LEAD TO A STRONGER MORE DOMINANT BAND. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 11KFT WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MEANING HEAVY LES. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER WILL BE OUT OF THE DGZ...SO DENDRITE SIZE WILL BE SMALL AND
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BELOW 20 TO 1. WHILE THIS WILL BE A LIMITATION
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE SMALL FLAKES WILL BE EFFICIENT AT
REDUCING . THEREFORE...THE GREATLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE DOMINANT HAZARD DURING THE EVENT. THE LES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THU MORNING AS
A SFC RIDGE MOVES W TO E THROUGH THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0F ALONG THE SHORELINES TO
-15F
OVER THE INTERIOR W. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE COLDER TEMPS IN
THE HWO...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES.
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE NE OF THE CWA THU EVENING INTO THU
NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
STAY NE OF THE CWA. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD RESULT ACROSS THE
NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND MAYBE FAR NERN UPPER MI WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS IF ANYTHING.
QUITE OF BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE SAT THROUGH MON. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF SYNOPTIC PRECIP
WILL RESULT IN THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW N-NE WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT /GFS VEERS WINDS TO A SLY DIRECTION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS NE WINDS INTO MON/. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND GREATER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FAVORABLE FLOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF -20C TO -25C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOWER RATIOS BUT STRONGER
LES OVERALL AND ALSO LONGER DURATION OF LES INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT KIWD...SW WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING
WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH PASSAGE. LOOK
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POSSIBLE.
AT KCMX...IFR VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR VSBYS LATER THIS MORNING AS
DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEING REPLACED
BY WEAKER MULTIBAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT
WHEN WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO MORE NW. THE NW WIND COULD BRING IN SOME
HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO NEAR GALES ARE
POSSIBLE WED...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
CONCERNS FOCUS ON LES AND ADVISORY HEADLINES OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND EXITING LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZES OFF
UPPER MI HAS FOCUSED A DOMINANT LES BAND ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTERSECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BTWN HOUGHTON AND
CALUMET. VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AT KCMX AS THIS BAND
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT.
TODAY... WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DEPARTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WE
ALREADY MAY BE SEEING SIGNS OF DOMINANT LES BAND WEAKENING OVER SRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IT
APPEARS THAT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING WHERE THE LES BAND IS LOCATED AS
NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MAY ALSO BE
WEAKENING SOME WITHIN THE PAST HR. LOOKING AT MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THIS DOMINANT LES BAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AS INVERSION BASES LOWER FM 5KFT TO 3KFT...
DRYING OCCURS BLO THE INVERSION...AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.
280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW AND
FAR NE UPPER MI WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING -19/-20C. BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS...DRYING BLO INVERSION AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
NW AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG ERN SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LES ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW-NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES THROUGH
12Z BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO EXTEND ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WILL
SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE AMOUNTS
WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY THIS EVENING...A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COLDER 8H TEMPS TO THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO -21C OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND -24C WEST WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 4KFT TO AROUND
7KFT BY 12Z WED ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN CWA AS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND MOISTURE DEEPENS
WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
CONSIDER LES ADVISORIES FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT 12Z WED...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NW WIND LES WILL
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH WED
EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -20C TO -25C AT 12Z WED BUT WILL
DECREASE TO -25C TO -30C BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 06Z THU. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL INTO EARLY WED
NIGHT...SUPPORTING MULTI BAND LES STRUCTURE. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER
ERN UPPER MI...BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT...WHERE THE
LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND ICE COVERAGE ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORE MAY
LEAD TO A STRONGER MORE DOMINANT BAND. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 11KFT WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MEANING HEAVY LES. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER WILL BE OUT OF THE DGZ...SO DENDRITE SIZE WILL BE SMALL AND
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BELOW 20 TO 1. WHILE THIS WILL BE A LIMITATION
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE SMALL FLAKES WILL BE EFFICIENT AT
REDUCING . THEREFORE...THE GREATLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE DOMINANT HAZARD DURING THE EVENT. THE LES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THU MORNING AS
A SFC RIDGE MOVES W TO E THROUGH THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0F ALONG THE SHORELINES TO
-15F
OVER THE INTERIOR W. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE COLDER TEMPS IN
THE HWO...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES.
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE NE OF THE CWA THU EVENING INTO THU
NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
STAY NE OF THE CWA. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD RESULT ACROSS THE
NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND MAYBE FAR NERN UPPER MI WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS IF ANYTHING.
QUITE OF BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE SAT THROUGH MON. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF SYNOPTIC PRECIP
WILL RESULT IN THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW N-NE WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT /GFS VEERS WINDS TO A SLY DIRECTION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS NE WINDS INTO MON/. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND GREATER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FAVORABLE FLOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF -20C TO -25C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOWER RATIOS BUT STRONGER
LES OVERALL AND ALSO LONGER DURATION OF LES INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KIWD WITH SOME LIGHT LES
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
AT KCMX...IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY AT TIMES AS A DOMINANT LES BAND SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THE DOMINANT LES BAND
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON AS SW
WINDS PREVAIL. THE WIND SWITCHES TO THE W AND ALLOWS MVFR
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO NEAR GALES ARE
POSSIBLE WED...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT CROSSES LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE
SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO ERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WINDS BACKING
TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE PUSHED THE LES OFFSHORE FROM THE
CWA. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN LES BAND
OFFSHORE FROM THE KEWEENAW BUT WAS LARGELY OBSCURED BY INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...AS SFC TROF BEGINS TO SAG SE ACROSS THE CWA...A MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY DOMINANT LES BAND WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C...CONVECTION/LIFT
THROUGH THE 1K-3K FT DGZ...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AS LES BAND SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE BAND IS LIKELY TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE
ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE LES ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TRANSITION TO MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS
AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NW. OTHERWISE...LES SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
FROM THE ERN CWA UNTIL LATE AS WINDS ONLY VEER FROM WSW TO W.
TUE...280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND -19C. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4K FT WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO WEST
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST...MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT 12Z WED...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NW WIND LES WILL
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH WED
EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -20C TO -25C AT 12Z WED BUT WILL
DECREASE TO -25C TO -30C BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 06Z THU. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL INTO EARLY WED
NIGHT...SUPPORTING MULTI BAND LES STRUCTURE. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER
ERN UPPER MI...BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT...WHERE THE
LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND ICE COVERAGE ALONG THE ONTARIO SHORE MAY
LEAD TO A STRONGER MORE DOMINANT BAND. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 11KFT WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MEANING HEAVY LES. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER WILL BE OUT OF THE DGZ...SO DENDRITE SIZE WILL BE SMALL AND
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BELOW 20 TO 1. WHILE THIS WILL BE A LIMITATION
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE SMALL FLAKES WILL BE EFFICIENT AT
REDUCING . THEREFORE...THE GREATLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE DOMINANT HAZARD DURING THE EVENT. THE LES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THU MORNING AS
A SFC RIDGE MOVES W TO E THROUGH THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0F ALONG THE SHORELINES TO
-15F
OVER THE INTERIOR W. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE COLDER TEMPS IN
THE HWO...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES.
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE NE OF THE CWA THU EVENING INTO THU
NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
STAY NE OF THE CWA. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD RESULT ACROSS THE
NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND MAYBE FAR NERN UPPER MI WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS IF ANYTHING.
QUITE OF BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE SAT THROUGH MON. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF SYNOPTIC PRECIP
WILL RESULT IN THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW N-NE WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT /GFS VEERS WINDS TO A SLY DIRECTION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS NE WINDS INTO MON/. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND GREATER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FAVORABLE FLOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF -20C TO -25C...WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOWER RATIOS BUT STRONGER
LES OVERALL AND ALSO LONGER DURATION OF LES INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KIWD WITH SOME LIGHT LES
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
AT KCMX...IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY AT TIMES AS A DOMINANT LES BAND SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THE DOMINANT LES BAND
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON AS SW
WINDS PREVAIL. THE WIND SWITCHES TO THE W AND ALLOWS MVFR
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO
NEAR GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT CROSSES LATE
FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1148 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE
SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO ERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WINDS BACKING
TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE PUSHED THE LES OFFSHORE FROM THE
CWA. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN LES BAND
OFFSHORE FROM THE KEWEENAW BUT WAS LARGELY OBSCURED BY INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...AS SFC TROF BEGINS TO SAG SE ACROSS THE CWA...A MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY DOMINANT LES BAND WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C...CONVECTION/LIFT
THROUGH THE 1K-3K FT DGZ...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AS LES BAND SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE BAND IS LIKELY TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE
ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE LES ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TRANSITION TO MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS
AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NW. OTHERWISE...LES SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
FROM THE ERN CWA UNTIL LATE AS WINDS ONLY VEER FROM WSW TO W.
TUE...280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND -19C. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4K FT WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO WEST
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST...MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS LOCKED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE
AMOUNTS WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY TUESDAY
EVENING...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE
TEMPERATURES (850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -19C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY TO -26C
BY 00Z THURSDAY) WILL HELP STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 5-6KFT TO 10-11KFT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS RISE AND THERE IS ASSISTANCE (MOISTURE/FORCING) FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE TIME OF INTENSIFICATION...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY MULTIBAND
LES ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LAND
BREEZE OFF ONTARIO (AND THE ICE IN THAT AREA OF LAKE SUPERIOR) ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PICTURED ROCKS AND WHITEFISH POINT AND WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE COLD AIR KEEPING MUCH OF THE CLOUD
OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ AND KEEP RATIOS BELOW 20 TO ONE AND AMOUNTS
LIGHTER. BUT WITH THOSE SMALLER FLAKES...IT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS WITH THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS...WILL SHOW A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE SNOW MOVES OFF SHORE OF THE U.P. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SOME OF THE SMALLER DETAILS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF
THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF
THE BEST SNOWFALL...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA. BEHIND THIS WAVE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA) WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND LEAD TO
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -14 AND -22C BY SATURDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION (3-4KFT) WILL LIKELY KEEP THE INTENSITY IN CHECK BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. IF THE WARMER SOLUTION SHOWN
BY THE 12Z GFS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WOULD BE WITHIN THE DGZ
AND LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...WOULD
EXPECT LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NNE FLOW
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
AND DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY REPRIEVE BEING ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS RISE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PRETTY COLD NIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL REALLY BE DIMINISHING AND
EXPECT THAT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN CHECK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO DUE
TO THE COLD FACTOR...BUT WITH WINDS LIKELY BEING BELOW 10MPH WE
SHOULDN/T NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KIWD WITH SOME LIGHT LES
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
AT KCMX...IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY AT TIMES AS A DOMINANT LES BAND SLOWLY SAGS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THE DOMINANT LES BAND
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON AS SW
WINDS PREVAIL. THE WIND SWITCHES TO THE W AND ALLOWS MVFR
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO
NEAR GALES ARE POSSIBLE WED. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT CROSSES LATE
FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
656 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER NE LA/SWRN MS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL LA. LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING/INCREASING LIFT...AND HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME LIGHT QPF EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER EAST BEFORE THE TROUGH SHEARS
EASTWARD. HAVE UPPED RAIN CHANCES BIT IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE AREA OF RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING IN SOUTH MS AND LA
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW UP TO THE 40S IN THIS AREA AND THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE MOISTENING UP. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 30S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.
THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR AND MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT
ENTERING THE CWA UNTIL 06Z. AS THE FRONT PASSES AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTH ALONG HWY 82. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AS THIS WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AS THE PRECIP
IS ALREADY COMING TO AN END.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTER
THIS WE WILL BE IN FOR COOLER TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES. BREEZY WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH ON THURSDAY
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SKIES
WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY TOMORROW AND LEAVE A CLOUDLESS SKY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A PASSING UPPER
HIGH WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE HIGH TRACKS EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND
TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL THAT AFTERNOON. /10/
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GENERALLY LONG TERM WX PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE ONE REPRESENTED BY A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND
ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WAVES MOVING THROUGH AND HELPING TO MOVE
AIRMASSES AROUND.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY FRI AND ALLOW FOR
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
RETURN FLOW BY FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER ON MONDAY. THE
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH PREV RUNS AND CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER...ESP FOR SAT-SUN. I AGREE WITH THIS AND ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WARMER GUID. THE OTHER PERIOD WHERE
READINGS WERE ADJUSTED WAS FOR MON MORN. A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. IF THE
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING HOLDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...A TREND IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW
LOOKS BEST AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR TUE-WED.
AS FOR PRECIP/WEATHER...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FRI-SUN AS A
STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
SEEMS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AS THE STOUT CAP AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL EXIST. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN WL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN CNTRL AND S BUT VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WL MOVE IN VCTY OF GLH BY 07Z.
LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS. AFTER 07Z THU
MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THU
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 18Z. CONDS
WL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST THU MORNING AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE BY 18Z. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 51 36 47 28 / 21 39 5 0
MERIDIAN 50 35 49 24 / 34 34 5 0
VICKSBURG 52 38 45 28 / 11 40 5 0
HATTIESBURG 51 40 53 28 / 68 43 5 0
NATCHEZ 52 40 47 29 / 41 40 5 0
GREENVILLE 51 32 42 27 / 4 30 5 0
GREENWOOD 52 33 44 25 / 4 29 5 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
855 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO THU AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...PUSHING A
WARM FRONT TO THE NE OF THE AREA ON THU. RADAR WAS SHOWING LIGHT
ECHOES W AND S OF KBIL THIS EVENING...BUT THESE APPEARED TO BE
MAINLY CLOUDS AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION.
MOUNTAIN WEB CAMS HOWEVER DID SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND THE
ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE LOW AND
CONFINED TO AREAS FROM AROUND KBIL W. THE HRRR...SSEO AND SREF
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THU. GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION
AND RISING TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS...WILL JUST GO WITH
RAIN/SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT. ON THU...LATEST MODELS
LIFTED THE QPF THROUGH THE WESTERN ZONES TO THE NE OF THE AREA
COMMENSURATE WITH THE WARM FRONT. HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO JUST THE W
IN THE MORNING AND HAD THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY DRY. ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BASED ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS.
AREAS E AND S OF KBIL COOLED OFF RAPIDLY AND REACHED THEIR
FORECAST LOWS THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES IN THESE AREAS USING THE RUC GUIDANCE. AFTER BOTTOMING OUT
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS SHOULD RISE OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE WINDS TONIGHT TO
INCREASE SPEEDS IN KBIL PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
WARM ADVECTION IS UNDER WAY IN A BIG WAY ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. ALREADY IN THE MID 30S IN GREAT FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN IS NEAR 40 ALREADY AFTER STARTING THE MORNING NEAR ZERO.
LIVINGSTON IS ALREADY 32 DEGREES. MEANWHILE ITS STILL IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A PACIFIC
JET STREAM FLOWS OVER THE AREA DIGGING A LEE SIDE TROF AND PUSHING
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIR SO WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH
EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A BRIEF TEMPERATURE DROP JUST AFTER SUNSET.
ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR THERE IS PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITH THIS PATTERN. AS THE WARM MOIST AIR OVER RUNS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POCKETS OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN ALL RAIN AS THE COLD AIR SHALLOWS OUT. RIVER VALLEYS WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
THESE AREAS WILL BE THE LAST AREAS TO SCOUR OUT. RIGHT NOW THIS
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT AS THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS TONIGHT AS EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES WITH ICY ROADS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. WILL START OUT WITH CONTINUING CHANCES
FOR A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GET
EATEN UP BY INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN STORY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS...OCCASIONALLY PUSHING FURTHER OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN MANY AREAS
INCLUDING BILLINGS AS THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF MONTANA.
THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COOKE CITY AREA
COULD BE CLOSE TO A FOOT. GIVEN THE WARM NATURE OF THIS SNOW BACK
COUNTRY RECREATIONISTS SHOULD BE EXTRA ALERT OF AVALANCHE DANGER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PACIFIC BECOMES BUCKLED BY SEVERAL
STRONGER SYSTEMS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SYSTEMS ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY AND EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR NEXT WEEK WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT BELOW WEEKEND LEVELS. BOTH PATTERNS KEEP
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY. PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
SYSTEM...WHILE AREA MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW AT
TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND NOT ONLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS BUT ALSO
OUT INTO THE PLAINS AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ONCE THE PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
AS COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. CHAMBERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH
MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED. AREAS FROM KBIL WEST WILL SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS WELL. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
EXIST NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY TOMORROW MORNING THIS WINTRY MIX
WILL SHIFT TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KTS BY MORNING AT KLVM. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/049 037/057 040/060 039/055 035/052 035/050 030/051
21/E 01/N 11/B 11/N 11/B 22/W 21/B
LVM 035/053 042/058 047/063 041/054 033/051 033/050 028/052
22/W 11/N 23/W 12/W 11/N 32/W 21/U
HDN 019/047 031/053 033/057 033/054 029/052 029/048 025/049
21/E 01/B 11/B 12/W 11/B 22/W 21/B
MLS 011/042 030/051 034/054 034/051 030/051 029/044 024/045
11/E 11/B 13/W 11/B 11/B 22/W 21/B
4BQ 019/051 034/060 036/059 036/055 032/056 032/049 026/048
11/E 11/B 12/W 12/W 11/B 22/W 21/B
BHK 009/041 029/050 034/053 032/049 028/050 027/041 023/042
01/E 11/B 13/W 11/N 11/B 22/W 21/B
SHR 013/051 033/058 034/059 031/055 028/052 026/047 025/048
11/E 00/B 11/B 12/W 11/B 22/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
919 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST MONTANA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND FALL STEADIEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS AND
THE 12Z ECMWF REVEAL 2 BULLS-EYES OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE
CWA...ONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND ONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY ON EITHER SIDE OF 0.1 INCHES AND WITH A
15:1 TO 20:1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO THIS SUPPORTS A SOLID 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LOCALIZED BANDS THAT DO HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES OR THAT DO PERSIST MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECT THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR 4 INCH TOTALS WOULD
BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWEST OF GLENDIVE AND ALSO OVER THE
LITTLE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THE CHALLENGE THIS EVENING REALLY WAS PETROLEUM COUNTY. 00Z NAM
SOLUTION HAS LIGHTER QPF. HOWEVER...SSEO WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
AS WELL AS OTHER AVAILABLE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUPPORT ENOUGH
MIDLEVEL WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE COLUMN THAT FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR SLEET COULD FACTOR IN. RECENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
TEENS AT GLASGOW...31 AT WINNETT...AND 40 AT LEWISTOWN. IF THAT
WARMER AIR OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD SURFACE AIR...EVEN LIGHT QPF
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF WINNETT EVEN GO TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME. AS A
RESULT...INCLUDED PETROLEUM COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE COMBINATION OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AND A TRACE OF ICE
DUE TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING +2SD COMPARED WITH
CLIMATOLOGY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MIXING RATIOS OF 1-3 G/KG AT
700MB ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TONIGHT BUT THAT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR WHERE STEADIER BANDS SET UP OVERNIGHT AND
KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY OVERNIGHT
AND BETTER REFINE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD DEALS WITH
THE EFFECTS FROM THE NEXT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP...BUT SOME OF THE SMALLER-SCALE ISSUES WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ARE EXACTLY WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS SET UP. COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1 OR 3 INCHES
OF SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
FOR EXAMPLE...00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT GFS AND NAM SHOW A NORTHERN
ZONES BAND OF SNOW AND A SW ZONES BAND OF MIXED PRECIP. THE EC ON
THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE HRRR PLACES A BAND OF SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...GFS PAINTS A HEFTY WIDESPREAD ALMOST MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR CENTRAL CWA WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE
HEAVIER SNOW OVER OUR FAR EASTERN AND SW ZONES.
AFTER TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL HAVE
EASED TO MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL QUICKLY
AND EFFECTIVELY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK...DECIDED TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING QUITE A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STRONGER THAN USUALLY EXPECTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
WINDS THROUGHOUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT IF ANY AT
ALL. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST CHANGES
MADE...BASED OFF THE 12Z EXTENDED MODELS...WAS TO GO CONSERVATIVE
WITH THE WARM UP FOR LATE INTO THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WITH RECENT SNOW COVER...WARMING WILL BE HINDERED
BY A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS TRENDED DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. ALSO TRENDED UP POPS
FOR EXPECTED MIXED PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO MONTANA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW WEAKENING AND PACIFIC UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THE OPENING UP OF
FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INSTEAD OF OUT OF THE ARCTIC...WARM AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE DIVIDE SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
NEW SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL AID THE MIXING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE
MOST SUBSTANTIAL ONE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
MODEL SPREAD LARGE ENOUGH FOR UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN DURING THE
WEEKEND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES PROFILES
SUGGEST A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES POSSIBLE WITH THE CRITICAL THERMAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: A LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT EXITING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 15Z.
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR FALLING TO LIFR/IFR BY 05Z LASTING THROUGH 15Z.
CIGS AND VSBY: VFR CEILINGS FALLING TO 500 TO 1500 FEET
OVERNIGHT... VSBY FALLING TO 1/2 SM AT TIMES AFT 05Z IMPROVING BY 15Z.
PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...RICHLAND...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE
AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INDICATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION NEAR
AND OFFSHORE OF KILM AND KOAJ HAS EXPANDED NOTICEABLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY
A LOCALIZED REGION OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A LARGER MORE
FAVORABLE REGION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. RECENT NWP GUIDANCE HAS
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SHARP WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD LINE UP NEAR I-95. RECENT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDE AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE WESTERN BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN SAMPSON AND EASTERN
WAYNE COUNTY. LATEST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN MAY PERSIST TO AROUND 11-13Z IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES...SO
HAVE EXTENDED POPS TO AROUND DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. -BLAES
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: PRECIP OVER THE FAR ERN FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE DEPARTING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THU MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE
COAST PRIOR TO THU MORNING. BUT THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF... EXPECTED TO PUSH NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC THU MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA... WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO MAINLY A NNW OR
NORTHERLY DIRECTION... WITH STRENGTHENING SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES IN FULL FORCE. WE SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC THU... HOWEVER MODEL BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 24-28 KT
RANGE THU... IN LINE WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS... ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ALONG
THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
SOURCE OF THE INCOMING AIR MASS... HAVE GONE ON THE COOLER END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THU... FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO NEAR 50
SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD TREND TO CLEAR BY LATE THU AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRYING AND STABILIZING COLUMN... AND WINDS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 1260S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WEATHER WISE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SITS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A DRY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT...POSSIBLY OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED...THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN FULL INSOLATION
WOULD SUGGEST. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING AS A SMALLER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF A UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES. THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THAT MAY SEE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. STILL...EXPECT AN ALMOST 10
DEGREE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE
LONG TERM WITH A STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-
ATLANTIC PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BUT MOST OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING BEGINS AND NORTHWESTERLIES GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLIES...THUS CREATING A DEEPER LAYER OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPEN THUS CREATING A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT
OVER CENTRAL NC. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM UNTIL MONDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC...IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT MODELS DIVERGE AS TO THE INITIAL
LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER
THE CAROLINAS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HPC MODEL ANALYSIS
FAVORS THE SLOWER GFS AT THIS POINT AS OPPOSED TO THE 00 RUN OF THE
ECMWF. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN HAS CONTINUED TO BE A FAST OUTLIER
AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST PACKAGE FROM HERE ON OUT WILL BE BASED ON
THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE AND HPC GUIDANCE. THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE A SLOWER SYSTEM THAT DELAYS THE ONSET OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH
MORE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WITH LOWER DECKS THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOME BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TIMING WILL DEPEND
ON MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION...WILL INCREASE POPS
MONDAY MORNING BUT MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY GOOD SATURATION UP THROUGH ALMOST 500 MB AND PW
VALUES OF 0.75 INCHES. THAT BEING SAID THE EURO IS MUCH DRIER AND
THESE DETAILS ARE BETTER LEFT TO BE IRONED OUT LATER. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS FRONTAL PASSAGE ISNT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT SO NO P-TYPE ISSUES AT THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH COLDER (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S)
WETBULBS AND SURFACE TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE MODERATELY COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER
WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE OVER THE EAST COAST...CLEARING THINGS OUT. IN ADDITION SURFACE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE BY THE AFTERNOON BRINING GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR INSOLATION RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NE TO
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KFAY AND KRWI. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE I-
95 CORRIDOR...WHICH INCLUDES KRWI AND KFAY....WILL LIE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER RAIN WILL IMPACT
THESE TERMINALS IS RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT
AND CEILINGS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 2500FT AT
WORST...SO THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW.
WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY (WEST) AND VARIABLE (EAST)
OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WIND OF 12-16KT AND GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS
25-30KT...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN 3000FT. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
945 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM WEDNESDAY...WHILE IT`S BEEN RAINING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND MORE RECENTLY COASTAL SE NORTH
CAROLINA...PRECIPITATION HAS NOT SPREAD INLAND ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z (MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM
THURSDAY) WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...SO I HAVE NOT REMOVED POPS HERE
ENTIRELY. I HAVE HOWEVER TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON...WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES. LOW PRESSURE IS
VERY CLOSE TO CAPE FEAR WITH SOUTH WINDS NOW OBSERVED AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
THESE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...
RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED VIA WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
800-600 MB LAYER...OR MORE PRECISELY THROUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING ALONG THE 300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE BEST LIFT IS
SHOWN IN ALL RECENT MODEL OUTPUT TO OCCUR NOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME DRYING IS SLOW TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BUT THE LESSER DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GA/SC COAST
ALONG A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT COULD MAKE IT TO WITHIN
10 MILES OF THE SE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
LOW ZIPS NORTH AND PULLS THE THE BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS ITS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED OFF THE EAST
COAST INTO OUR DEVELOPING STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW.
WITH THIS UPDATE I HAVE MAINTAINED 100 POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES. FARTHER INLAND RADAR
TRENDS AND RECENT MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE IT MAY BE HARD TO GET
MEASURABLE RAIN WEST OF I-95...AND I HAVE NUDGED DOWN FORECAST POPS
HERE INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS LIKE BENNETTSVILLE AND
HARTSVILLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT
APPROACH THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EITHER ONSHORE OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT...IMPLYING NO CHANCE OF THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PUSHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THURS MORNING. A DEEP NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURS MORNING ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW EVEN BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FLOW OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED LATER IN THE DAY AS DEEP TROUGH
DRIVES COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING A DEEP
DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET THROUGH
THURS AS COLUMN DRIES OUT. THEREFORE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURS. MOST PLACES WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH
PAST 50 AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH LATE THURS
AFTN INTO THE EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURS NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN AND
ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE BY LATE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CAA TO
START AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER ON WILL BRING TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRI
BUT ESSENTIALLY WILL BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AS COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. COLUMN
REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGIT DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...BUT A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 20S BY FRI NIGHT. A MINOR
PERTURBATION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FRI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF SHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BUT OVERALL
EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A NICE EARLY-FEBRUARY WEEKEND ON TAP
LOCALLY AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW PUSHES A HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL CREATE A DRY COLUMN WITH SURFACE
WAA...AND SEASONABLE-TO-ABOVE-SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF
THE TWO DAYS...BUT BOTH WILL BE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING VORTICITY IMPULSE DIVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL BECOME A STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY TOO LATE TO AFFECT THE CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. HOWEVER...CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH THIS DEEPENING FEATURE WILL
CROSS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAINFALL...BUT
QPF IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEY WILL CRASH QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRECIP GATHERING TO THE SOUTH. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TONIGHT...BRINGING IN BATCHES OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z...WITH PRECIP BECOMING STEADY. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
A GOOD BET. ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST BY
16Z...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER AFTER THAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH SUN. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED UP TO THE
BEACHES OF SE NORTH CAROLINA WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH SHOWING A SOUTH WIND AT JOHNNIE MERCER PIER. THE
LOW IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR AT THE MOMENT...AND ITS
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO KICK BACK OFFSHORE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
FORECASTS NECESSITATED BY THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE COASTAL
FRONT...FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 700
PM FOLLOWS...
A COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY
LOCATION WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOW BEING REPORTED. LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THIS FRONT WILL ZIP NORTHWARD...PASSING
NORTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO THE ZIPPER
LOW...HELPING DEVELOP IT INTO A STRONG NORTHWEST ATLANTIC LOW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SC COAST SHOULD BACK AROUND TO
THE NW FOLLOWING THE LOW`S PASSAGE. THINGS COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT COULD GET
QUITE FAR INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING...
BEFORE THE NW WINDS PUNCH IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE STRONGER SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL GENERATE IMPRESSIVE
SEAS OUT THERE...SOME OF WHICH WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT. I WILL MAINTAIN
THE `EXERCISE CAUTION` HEADLINE FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
FOR 4-5 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PUSHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THURS MORNING. DEEP NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD REACH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS
BY NOON TIME ON THURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON UNTIL 1 AM FRI. CANT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING GRADIENT TO RELAX
OVERNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE MARKEDLY
OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS
IN THE OUTER WATERS JUST REACHING NEAR 6 FT THURS AFTN AND COMING
BACK DOWN RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OF FRI WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH A WEAK WESTERLY RETURN
FLOW FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI
MORNING AND DOWN BELOW 3 FT BY FRI EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SW RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. INITIALLY THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY TO AROUND 20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FROPA LATE MONDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AT JUST 1-2 FT THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY...BUT WILL CLIMB STEADILY TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MAY TICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. ATTM NO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
105 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
LATEST ADDITION TO FLURRIES FOR THE HWY 200 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH...ENDING AROUND 19Z...SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT AS FLURRIES
HAVE ENDED HERE AT FGF OFFICE. WITH POPS IN DECENT SHAPE FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTN...FOCUS TURNS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WIND CHILL
HEADLINES. MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER THAN INHERITED GRIDS
AND HAVE ONLY BLENDED NEW SUPER BLEND WITH PREV FCST LOW...WHICH
STILL YIELDS VALUES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL
AROUND OR AFTER 12Z (SECOND PERIOD) AND DO NOT FORESEE ISSUANCE OF
HEADLINES THIS SHIFT...BUT DECISION HAS NOT BEEN MADE PENDING MORE
COORDINATION WITH BIS OFFICE. ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH 4 PM
CST FCST IF APPROPRIATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MORNING UPDATE WILL FOCUS ON ONGOING LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST MODELED RUC GUIDANCE INCREASES SLIGHTLY THE
QPF OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE MODELED RAP SNOW RATIOS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE REGION...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. HAVE POPULATED QPF AND SNOW RATIO WITH THIS
GUIDANCE AND RERUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH BUMPS SNOWFALLS UP TO THE
ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCH RANGE. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO BRING
LIKELIES INTO VALLEY CITY AND PUSHED SOUTHWARD THE NO SNOW
GRADIENT WITHIN THE VALLEY...AS FAR HAS NOT SEEN ANY PRECIP THE
LAST TWO OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE ON THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH WHEN LOOKING AT RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WE WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME...BUT LOWER SNOW TOTALS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
VALLEY...WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN AN INCH. THERE COULD BE AN
INCH...PERHAPS 2 IN FAR SOUTHWEST SARGENT COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY WITH A FLURRY PERHAPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW BAND TODAY THAT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WC MN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AT
00Z WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HOPWRF ARE SHIFTING THE MAIN SNOW BAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
WHERE THIS SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT SHOULD PRODUCE
A BAND OF 1-2 INCHES SHOULD AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN FA TODAY.
THERE IS A 6HR WINDOW OF LIFT PER ISENTROPIC/QG FIELDS THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH IN THE 15-21Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...SO SOME LIFT WILL GO TO SATURATE
COLUMN. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE
WILL MONITOR THIS SNOW THREAT TODAY AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS MAY DEVELOP AT LEAST IN THE NORTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN.
ON WED...IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH 490 DECAMETER THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 0 IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS COULD BE IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM 25-30 BELOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE NORTH AT LEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
WARMING. TEMPS COULD BE STEADY LATER WED NIGHT AND PERHAPS RISE A
BIT IN THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON THU AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
FOR THU NIGHT...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD BE THE START TO
A BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL OSCILLATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE THROUGH THE
RATHER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT TEMP TRENDS...AND HAVE STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH DETAILS. THE SYSTEMS
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN...AND
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN MOST OF THE SYSTEMS RECENTLY. THE
00Z GFS INDICATES PW VALUES NEAR 0.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS ONE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NE ND/NW MN...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM FALLING
SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN SASK AND WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
SNOW CONTINUES SOUTH CENTRAL AND IS ENDING WEST. WILL CONTINUE
THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR GETTING 1 TO 2 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
AREA OF SNOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR HAS NEARLY ALL THE SNOW
ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH THE PRIMARY BAND ORIENTATED FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTED THIS QUITE WELL...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS SOME
ALONG THIS BAND. SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER BY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES
ITS SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES (ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE).
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA.
RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE 06 NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WATFORD CITY DOWN
THROUGH BISMARCK AND ELLENDALE. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE
CLOSER TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE MOST INTENSE AND ORGANIZED SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ALL DAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
FRESH SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
ACTIVE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION. CHANGES COME FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A PARADE OF MODEST SHORT WAVES START TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE
NORTH...POSSIBLY SAGGING SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND THOUGH MODELS ARE
HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE POSITION OF THIS. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...SPREADING
SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION
TYPES AS MODELS ADVERTISE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT PUSHING MORE OR LESS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH THIS...HAVE GONE WITH
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN SUB FREEZING INTO SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT CONFIDENCE IN MODELS
DETERIORATES AS EC COOLS AND GFS REMAINS WARM SO WILL HOLD OFF OF
FREEZING RAIN MENTION FOR NOW TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
PRECIP CHANCES THEN REMAIN OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS REGION REMAINS IN ACTIVE PATTERN.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO AVERAGE NORTH
CENTRAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR LOW VFR
BY EVENING. CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
925 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MORNING UPDATE WILL FOCUS ON ONGOING LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST MODELED RUC GUIDANCE INCREASES SLIGHTLY THE
QPF OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE MODELED RAP SNOW RATIOS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE REGION...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. HAVE POPULATED QPF AND SNOW RATIO WITH THIS
GUIDANCE AND RERUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH BUMPS SNOWFALLS UP TO THE
ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCH RANGE. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO BRING
LIKELIES INTO VALLEY CITY AND PUSHED SOUTHWARD THE NO SNOW
GRADIENT WITHIN THE VALLEY...AS FAR HAS NOT SEEN ANY PRECIP THE
LAST TWO OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE ON THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE LIGHT SNOW BAND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH WHEN LOOKING AT RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WE WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME...BUT LOWER SNOW TOTALS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
VALLEY...WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN AN INCH. THERE COULD BE AN
INCH...PERHAPS 2 IN FAR SOUTHWEST SARGENT COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY WITH A FLURRY PERHAPS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW BAND TODAY THAT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WC MN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AT
00Z WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HOPWRF ARE SHIFTING THE MAIN SNOW BAND
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
WHERE THIS SNOW BAND DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT SHOULD PRODUCE
A BAND OF 1-2 INCHES SHOULD AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN FA TODAY.
THERE IS A 6HR WINDOW OF LIFT PER ISENTROPIC/QG FIELDS THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH IN THE 15-21Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...SO SOME LIFT WILL GO TO SATURATE
COLUMN. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WE
WILL MONITOR THIS SNOW THREAT TODAY AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS MAY DEVELOP AT LEAST IN THE NORTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN.
ON WED...IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH 490 DECAMETER THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 0 IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS COULD BE IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM 25-30 BELOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE NORTH AT LEAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
WARMING. TEMPS COULD BE STEADY LATER WED NIGHT AND PERHAPS RISE A
BIT IN THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON THU AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
FOR THU NIGHT...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WAA. THIS COULD BE THE START TO
A BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL OSCILLATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE THROUGH THE
RATHER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT TEMP TRENDS...AND HAVE STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH DETAILS. THE SYSTEMS
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN...AND
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN MOST OF THE SYSTEMS RECENTLY. THE
00Z GFS INDICATES PW VALUES NEAR 0.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS ONE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NE ND/NW MN...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
EXPECT VFR CIGS TODAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WE EXPECT THE MAIN BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO FALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION
FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10KTS TODAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
854 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
AREA OF SNOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR HAS NEARLY ALL THE SNOW
ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH THE PRIMARY BAND ORIENTATED FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTED THIS QUITE WELL...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS SOME
ALONG THIS BAND. SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER BY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES
ITS SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES (ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE).
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA.
RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE 06 NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WATFORD CITY DOWN
THROUGH BISMARCK AND ELLENDALE. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE
CLOSER TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE MOST INTENSE AND ORGANIZED SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
MUCH WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ALL DAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
FRESH SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
ACTIVE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION. CHANGES COME FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A PARADE OF MODEST SHORT WAVES START TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE
NORTH...POSSIBLY SAGGING SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND THOUGH MODELS ARE
HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE POSITION OF THIS. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...SPREADING
SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION
TYPES AS MODELS ADVERTISE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT PUSHING MORE OR LESS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITH THIS...HAVE GONE WITH
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN SUB FREEZING INTO SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT CONFIDENCE IN MODELS
DETERIORATES AS EC COOLS AND GFS REMAINS WARM SO WILL HOLD OFF OF
FREEZING RAIN MENTION FOR NOW TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
PRECIP CHANCES THEN REMAIN OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS REGION REMAINS IN ACTIVE PATTERN.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED SOUTHWEST...CLOSER TO AVERAGE NORTH
CENTRAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
NEAR TERM FORECAST TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS.
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING. BROUGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SNOWBANDS ARE ENTERING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE INCOMING 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH 0345 UTC CONTINUE TO AFFIRM THE ONGOING FORECAST OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES
REQUIRED TO INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 0330 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED
TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
WESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SUPPORTED BY THE 18 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE AND
20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
MAINLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN TONIGHT ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND EXIT THE REGION
TUESDAY. MOISTURE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SIMILAR TO PAST FEW SYSTEMS
AND THE RESULT SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW TOTALS WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTAL. THE BAND OF SNOW SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH ADVANCING CLOUDS THIS EVENING DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE FALLS TONIGHT. LOWS -3 NORTH
CENTRAL TO 15 ABOVE FAR SOUTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 10
NORTH CENTRAL TO 28 SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING NORTHWEST ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX ARE POSSIBLE. PREDICTABILITY OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IS LOW...SO TIMING
AND EXACT LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECAST.
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
NORTH DAKOTA WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY. THE 12Z ENSEMBLES AGREE ON WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS A RIGID
OVER THE PACIFIC PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHERWISE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE EARLIER
ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
ABOUT THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT CURRENT IS TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY.
AS OF 645 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IN
THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY ROUGHLY TWO TO THREE HOURS BASED UPON THE
LATEST 18Z/1PM GFS/NAM/WRF ARW GUIDANCE AND 22Z/5PM HRRR OUTPUT.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. A FEW OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY GUST
CRITERIA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THE SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ONLY.
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A 1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. THE RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN
TO OUR EAST.
A SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF
MOSTLY POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW THAT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE FAR WEST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW UPON HEADING EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE EAST
DRY OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW MAY PUSH EAST TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE QUICKLY FADING TOWARD DAWN AS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE KICKS IN.
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TWO INCHES WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW AND THERMAL PROFILES...THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH SNOW TO
WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY CONSIDERING THE LOW AMOUNTS AND LIMITED
AREA AFFECTED. IN GENERAL...CLOUD COVER INCREASES TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHT
85H TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH THE
NORTH CAROLINA RIDGES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD MORNING
GIVEN A RATHER LOW INVERSION BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER JET
ALOFT. WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH TO AROUND 40 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES AS COORDINATED WITH GSP AND LWX.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO OUR REGION. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. USED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE STRONG CAA TO ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO FALL
IN WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
5H TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE WE STAY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS START TO RISE INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC SHIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD
TOWARD THE NRN VA AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MODELS HOLDING PRECIP
JUST NORTH OF US DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS TO
TEENS ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF SE WV.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOW
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 20S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND BLF.
MAY START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS ARRIVING SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WITH FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL TEMPS WILL BE MILDER AS
THICKNESSES RISE...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MORE CLOUD ARRIVE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RIDGE/TROF
CONFIGURATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROF STARTS OFF
BROAD ON SUNDAY...THEN SHARPENS INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF MONDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
BROAD WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY SUGGESTS A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF OUR REGION...
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND...THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SPAWNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME...AND DRAGGING THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. ATTM IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIRMASS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION THAT ARRIVES WITH THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS TRACK THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY...PASSING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
CWA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST TO ENCOMPASS AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS PAINTS A VERY WET PICTURE FOR
MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS MODEL HAS
TRENDED WETTER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z/1AM.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
09Z/4AM AND 14Z/9AM. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE WVA TERMINALS INTO FAR WESTERN
VA...WEST OF ROANOKE. DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD PREVENT THE LOWER
CIGS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING
ABOVE 3KFT AND SUPPORTING VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR FROM THE
ROANOKE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO VA/NC TO INCLUDE KROA/KLYH/KDAN.
A WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY.
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
651 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHERWISE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IN
THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY ROUGHLY TWO TO THREE HOURS BASED UPON THE
LATEST 18Z/1PM GFS/NAM/WRF ARW GUIDANCE AND 22Z/5PM HRRR OUTPUT.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. A FEW OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY GUST
CRITERIA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THE SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ONLY.
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A 1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. THE RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN
TO OUR EAST.
A SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF
MOSTLY POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW THAT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE FAR WEST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW UPON HEADING EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE EAST
DRY OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW MAY PUSH EAST TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE QUICKLY FADING TOWARD DAWN AS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE KICKS IN.
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TWO INCHES WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW AND THERMAL PROFILES...THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH SNOW TO
WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY CONSIDERING THE LOW AMOUNTS AND LIMITED
AREA AFFECTED. IN GENERAL...CLOUD COVER INCREASES TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHT
85H TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH THE
NORTH CAROLINA RIDGES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD MORNING
GIVEN A RATHER LOW INVERSION BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER JET
ALOFT. WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH TO AROUND 40 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES AS COORDINATED WITH GSP AND LWX.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO OUR REGION. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. USED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE STRONG CAA TO ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO FALL
IN WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
5H TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE WE STAY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS START TO RISE INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC SHIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD
TOWARD THE NRN VA AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MODELS HOLDING PRECIP
JUST NORTH OF US DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS TO
TEENS ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF SE WV.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOW
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 20S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND BLF.
MAY START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS ARRIVING SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WITH FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL TEMPS WILL BE MILDER AS
THICKNESSES RISE...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MORE CLOUD ARRIVE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RIDGE/TROF
CONFIGURATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROF STARTS OFF
BROAD ON SUNDAY...THEN SHARPENS INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF MONDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
BROAD WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY SUGGESTS A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF OUR REGION...
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND...THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SPAWNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME...AND DRAGGING THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. ATTM IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIRMASS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION THAT ARRIVES WITH THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS TRACK THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY...PASSING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
CWA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST TO ENCOMPASS AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS PAINTS A VERY WET PICTURE FOR
MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS MODEL HAS
TRENDED WETTER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z/1AM.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
09Z/4AM AND 14Z/9AM. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE WVA TERMINALS INTO FAR WESTERN
VA...WEST OF ROANOKE. DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD PREVENT THE LOWER
CIGS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING
ABOVE 3KFT AND SUPPORTING VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR FROM THE
ROANOKE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO VA/NC TO INCLUDE KROA/KLYH/KDAN.
A WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY.
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS:
1. DIMINISHING SNOW THIS EVENING
2. SNOW...OR NOT...SOUTH OF I-90 ON WEDNESDAY
3. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NEED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON?
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...DEEP
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...AND A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES HAS
RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING OUR AREA. THIS BAND EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN
THIS BAND. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS COLD WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS...DUE TO THE COLD START...FRESH SNOWPACK...
CLOUDS...FALLING SNOW AND 925MB TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -14C RANGE.
SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG I-80 IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH CAN
BE SEEN OVER ALBERTA DROPPING SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 0
TO 5 ABOVE RANGE.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO LITTLE CHANGE IS REQUIRED. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
SOME OF THE ADVISORIES EARLY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SNOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLDER 925MB AIR IS PROGGED TO ADVECT IN TO PLACE THAT
MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WEAK OMEGA IS
PROGGED IN THIS CLOUD DECK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. IN
FACT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACTUAL ACCUMULATING SNOW
THERE. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...BUT
THE ADVECTION OF COLDER 925MB AIR SHOULD STILL BRING READINGS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND SNOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ZONE OCCURS
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
CURRENT WARM FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF I-70. 03.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
PUSH THIS ZONE AND SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. 03.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO NOW DRY OUT NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. GIVEN THIS TREND IN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF...HAVE REMOVED THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT PICK UP SNOW...EXPECT FALLING LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DROPS SOUTH. 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM
-12 TO -14C AT 12Z TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z. THE NORTH WINDS WHICH
COULD GUST TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY ALONG/WEST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 52...ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS COME IN ANY STRONGER.
RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS AND WIND CHILLS
2. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY
3. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
COLD ADVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -16 AND
-20C...WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK BELOW
ZERO...WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO
20 BELOW. WINDS DECOUPLING SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
NEED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
LATE TO GIVE SOME BREEZE.
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR. COULD SEE HIGHS REACH TO OR
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG I-90. A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN...WITH SOME TREND TO DROP IT FARTHER
SOUTHWEST. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AND REQUIRING A MENTION OF
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.
THE WEEKEND IS PROVING MORE INTERESTING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH...POSSIBLY ONE POTENT ONE
THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS SHOW A
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SETTING UP FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST IOWA AS WELL. AT A MINIMUM IT APPEARS AN ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED...BUT LOCATION IS STILL WELL UP IN THE AIR.
COLDER...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MONDAY...RESULTING FROM DEEPER TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
UPPER RIDGE COMING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATCHING A BAND OF SNOW MOVING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA.
LOOK FOR THIS BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH KRST GETTING INTO SOME MODERATE SNOW/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KLSE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
IFR RANGE...BEING A BIT MORE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIEST SNOW. LOOK
FOR THIS SNOW TO LET UP BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 INCHES FOR
KRST AND AROUND 2.5 INCHES FOR KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. WILL IT STAY DRY TONIGHT
2. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
3. INCOMING SNOW FOR TUESDAY...IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. 2 SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITHIN THIS FLOW WERE OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA AND COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...DESPITE LOOKING DECENT ON WATER VAPOR...HAS BEEN
PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS IS DUE TO
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 12Z WERE
GENERALLY 0.05-0.10 INCHES...OR AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
DRY AIR WAS ALSO COLD WITH 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -14 AND -17C AT 18Z
TODAY PER RAP ANALYSIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO
MICHIGAN. THUS...DESPITE SUNSHINE...THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND THE
COLD AIR ALOFT HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO...COLDEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE
ALBEDO VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. LAST ITEM OF NOTE WAS A POTENT TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO COME THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS EVEN
TRENDED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HEADING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY 04Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...FEEL CONFIDENT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. THIS IS IN LINE TOO WITH ALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT. STILL WE SHOULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. ITS
POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING BETWEEN 08-10Z...
PROVIDED ECMWF 925MB RH FIELD IS CORRECT IN NOT SHOWING ANY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEFORE MORE CIRRUS MOVES IN.
IF THIS CLEAR PERIOD MATERIALIZES...WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT SO
TEMPERATURES COULD TANK EASILY BELOW ZERO. WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FEEL THE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY...AND THUS LOWERED
LOWS SOME TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.
FOR TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IS
PROGGED TO REACH NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE
IS A LONGER PERIOD TO BRING IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS
TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES...WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FRONTOLYSIS COUPLET BETWEEN 900-700MB...WITH ITS FORCING CORRELATED
NICELY WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...FEEL VERY CONFIDENT OF
SEEING A FLUFFY SNOW BAND SET UP.
TRACK...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
TO BE IMPACTED...AND IT COULD EVEN REACH AS FAR NORTH AS TAYLOR
COUNTY. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE MOST ACCUMULATION...EITHER AROUND I-
90 OR THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FOR NOW TOOK A COMPROMISE.
TIMING...SOME SNOW COULD ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER BY 18Z...BUT MUCH OF IT SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 18-00Z. THE
SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z.
AMOUNTS...MAXIMUM MODEL QPF IN THE 0.15 TO 0.2 RANGE SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT BASED ON THE FLUFFY SNOW IDEA UPWARDS OF A LOCALIZED 3
INCHES. MOST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...
THOUGH...DUE TO THE QUICK NATURE OF THE FORCING.
ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE TIMING COMING
THROUGH IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT ONE IN LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF QPF INCREASES. RIGHT NOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADDRESS IN OTHER SERVICES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. TRACK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
2. LOWS/WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE ADVISORY NEED
3. BRIEF WARM UP TOWARDS NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
4. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND
5. ANOTHER COLD SHOT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IS PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS
TROUGH APPROACHES ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEST TO EAST
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF
THIS BAND RANGES FROM SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE 02.12Z NAM/GFS WHICH
WOULD BE DRY FOR OUR AREA...AROUND I-80 FROM THE 02.12Z CANADIAN
WITH A BRIEF BRUSH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND AROUND
TO JUST NORTH OF I-80 FROM THE 02.00Z/12Z ECMWF WHICH COULD BRING
SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS I-90. HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. HOPEFULLY
LATER MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MORE BULLISH
ECMWF WOULD YIELD 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF I-90.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT DOES
LOOK BRISK DURING THE EVENING...BUT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT THE LIGHTENING
WINDS TO HELP THE WIND CHILL SITUATION AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK
BY WITHOUT AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TANK AS SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH. READINGS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ARE
LIKELY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROUGH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW SEPARATES AN ARCTIC
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND WARMER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVES
MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MODULATE HOW MUCH OF THE
WARMER AND COLDER AIR ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. TAKE FOR EXAMPLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHERE THE 02.12Z GFS BRINGS 850MB TEMPS
UP TO 2-9C ABOVE...WITH THE ECMWF NOT TOO DISSIMILAR. SNOWPACK AND
LOWER SUN ANGLE PREVENTS MIXING TO 850MB...BUT STILL WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS CLIMB AT LEAST BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. ALSO FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUT
PLACEMENT ISSUES/TIMING EXIST...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30-
50 RANGE PERSIST. THE BAND COULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY PER 02.12Z GFS
SO STILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SNOW...THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR TO OUR NORTH TO
FLOW IN. THUS...COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP...PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REMAIN BULLISH ON DEVELOPING NEAR SFC
SATURATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL-TIME SUPPORT...WILL KEEP
ANY CIGS VFR FOR NOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINS INTO THE AREA TUE. SATURATION IS
BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH SO THAT A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD OF -SN
LOOKS LIKELY FOR KRST/KLSE. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AT THE
MOMENT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE
AT KRST. VSBYS FROM 1-2SM ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. START TIME LOOKS CLOSE TO 18Z FOR KRST...AND 19-20Z AT
KLSE. SNOW SHOULD CLEAR KRST BY 03Z AND KLSE TOWARD 05Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1028 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TO WARNINGS.
SNOTEL OBSERVATIONS HAD WIDESPREAD ,5 INCH SWE AND MEDICINE BOW
HAD ALMOST 2 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
SHOWERS CONTINUING OUT THERE THROUGHWEDNESDAY...SO DECIDED TO
UPGRADE TO WARNINGS. ALSO ADDED ZONES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO
A WINTER STORM WATCH AS 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING HEFTY QPFS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...EXTENDING UP NEAR WHEATLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN THE SNOW
EVENT EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WINDS HAVE EASED OVER THE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. 700MB WINDS OF 60-65 KTS PROGGED OVER PARTS OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND WITH COLOCATION OF DECENT
DOWNWARD MOTION THE TYPICAL WIND AREAS SUCH AS BORDEAUX AND WEST
OF CHEYENNE SHOULD SEE HIGH WINDS ATTAINED ONCE AGAIN. STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
SLOWLY DROP OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THOUGH PERIODS OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. WITH DECENT SNOWFALL ALREADY HAVING
FALLEN THERE AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
HAVE POSTED A WINTER WX ADVY THERE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL WANE FOR A TIME
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A DECENT SNOW EVENT WHICH WILL BEGIN
LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDS. A PUSH OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING AND
HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A PERIOD OF GOOD UPSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING UPPER WNW FLOW AND EMBEDDED WEAK
IMPULSES SHOULD CREATE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF SNOW THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDS MORNING. RIGHT NOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN
THE 3-5 INCH RANGE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE MTNS. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVY EVENT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY OTHER HILITES AND SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS PERSIST WITH
THIS SCENARIO. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE MODEST OVERALL THOUGH A
SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTINESS LOOKS LIKELY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE WINDY WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND EVENTS LOOKING
LIKELY.
FOR THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AS
RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
NORTHERN IDAHO. GFS 700MB WINDS 55-60KTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...SO COULD BE SEEING STRONG WINDS AT ARLINGTON AND MAYBE AS
FAR EAST AS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. GFS 700MB WINDS FORECAST UP TO 70-75KTS.
NOT REALLY A BIG 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT...SO THAT
MAY KEEP WINDS DOWN SOME. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH.
NICE THING THOUGH WITH THESE STRONG WINDS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE GOING TO BE WARM. GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM -3C
THURSDAY MORNING TO +4C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SNOW PACK
FROM WEDNESDAYS STORM...WE COULD BE SEEING TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO THE MID 40S WEST AND LOW 50S EAST.
ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY DAY FRIDAY AS GFS WINDS REMAIN AT 60-70KTS
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +5C. LOOKS WINDY AND WARM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WE STAY IN THIS FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
WILL BEGIN SEEING LOWERING CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS MORNING OVER
CARBON COUNTY FOR KRWL. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO MOVE INTO AREAS
EAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD BE
WHEN WE SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT OUR NEBRASKA AIRPORTS AND
HERE AT KCYS. FOLLOWED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ON CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN WINDS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS AT TIMES THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDS WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106>108-118-119.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-117.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ110-116.
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
445 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AT THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WE FIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE RIDING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS IMPULSE IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCLEMENT/WET WEATHER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN QUITE HEAVY IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RATHER
STRONG LOOKING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVERNIGHT WAS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO IT IS NO WONDER WE SAW SOME DECENT
SIGNATURES ON RADAR. THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR WAS THE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THIS STORMS APPROACHED THE COAST...AND
THIS LIKELY KEPT ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM MATERIALIZING. THIS SYSTEM
HAD A LOT GOING FOR IT IN ORDER TO PRODUCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT IS NOW OVER THE
PENINSULA...ALONG WITH A LARGE SWATH OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/DEEP LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL HANG
IN OVER OUR REGION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO PIVOT OFF
TO THE EAST. WV IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...INDICATING LARGE SCALE
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE THAT WILL REPLACE
THESE LIFTING FEATURES AS THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST BEFORE
THE DAY IS THROUGH. WE WILL SEE THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREAD OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AND ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST AND WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR CEDAR KEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
NOW MAINLY OVER THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF...SO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...EVEN FOR
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN A DRYING TREND IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
FOR THE MOST PART...THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MOVES
ASHORE INTO A STABLE SURFACE BASED ENVIRONMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL BE TO PUSH THE
MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN FURTHER AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ACTUALLY COLD FRONT AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE BOUNDARY HAS PASSED ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SO
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM I-4 NORTHWARD...ENDING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE POPS BY LATER THIS MORNING...AND
FINALLY ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WOULD SHIFT
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF LEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES BY AROUND
400 PM...ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD IS LIKELY TO END FOR THESE
FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES EVEN EARLIER. WITH THE COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND THE SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT HOUR TO HOUR...BUT GENERALLY HAVE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH AND LOWER 70S SOUTH DURING THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BRING TEMPS
DOWN SLOWLY AFTER 2 PM...WHICH IS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN A NORMAL
DIURNAL CYCLE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
TONIGHT...RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST. CAA
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN
THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA. SO...IT WILL BE COOL NIGHT...WITH MANY
SPOTS NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...AND MANY
SPOTS FURTHER SOUTH SEEING 40S FOR LOWS. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS LIKE
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE CAPTIVA/SANIBEL AREAS WILL LIKELY
HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY
MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AROUND DAWN...HOWEVER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE A BIT HIGH AND THE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT TIGHT TO ALLOW DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE...APPEARS THE THREAT OF FROST IS ON THE LOW SIDE AND WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
FRIDAY...
A VERY PLEASANT...ALTHOUGH SEASONABLY COOL DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY.
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE TO WARM UP THOSE
CHILLY SUNRISE READINGS. THE SUN WILL THEN MIX WITH SCT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD DIURNAL MIXING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MIDDLE 60S
SOUTH...AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
MORE ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
A TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A DRY COOL AND STABLE NORTH-
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE GA AND NE FL
SPRAWLS ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH A RATHER RELAXED NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. DURING THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...FROM
CANADA..SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...FLATTENING
IT WITH TROUGHINESS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMS BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GA/FL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OUT OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK ACROSS FL INTO THE
GULF...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THE WEEKEND
FORECAST IS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WARM BUT STAY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR MON-WED: THE WESTERN RIDGE RE-FORMS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS IT FLATTENS SOME. IN
RESPONSE THE EASTERN TROUGHINESS DEEPENS AS IT SLIDES OFF THE COAST
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FL MON AND EARLY TUES WITH
SOME LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS IN
OVER THE GULF BY MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
HEAVIEST RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH TERMINALS
FURTHER SOUTH WILL STILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS ALONG IT. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON THIS
MORNING...WITH ANY IFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ELEMENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH
NW/N WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW CROSSES FL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH
OVER THE WATERS TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND ROBUST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GULF. SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR REACH CAUTION TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY THEN CONTINUE INTO FRI. THE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS FL DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER TO
THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY BY MID MORNING...WITH RAINFALL EXITING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES BY TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35% DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 48 67 49 / 50 0 0 0
FMY 75 53 73 51 / 100 0 0 0
GIF 69 47 67 47 / 80 0 0 0
SRQ 70 50 68 49 / 60 0 0 0
BKV 68 42 66 40 / 40 0 0 0
SPG 69 52 66 53 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/MARINE...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPING FRONT THERE IS A LINE OF CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE OF CONVECTION
COULD ENTER THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND
09Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...VCTS ASSIGNED AT 09Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILARLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH NO VCTS
IN THE TAF`S. WINDS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AROUND 14-15Z TIME
FRAME WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST
BUT VERY BRIEF PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 61 71 59 / 80 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 60 72 61 / 70 30 20 10
MIAMI 79 60 73 60 / 70 30 20 10
NAPLES 74 54 72 53 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1236 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL BE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS AFFECTED MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.
THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR INDICATES RAIN DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAIN. WE HAVE FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST TO LIKELY SOUTHEAST. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA SO FROZEN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION...BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
GONE BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT MAYBE AN EXITING SHOWER IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. A VERY DRY
AIR MASS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO
SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE BACK IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AND SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING...PROBABILITY AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED
TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW POP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN COOLING
OFF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE NE GOMEX...N CENT
FL...AND OFFSHORE SC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
SC AND GA...TRACKING TO THE ENE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MORE FAVORED
SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS OGB. RAIN WILL SHIFT SE OUT OF OUR FA AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS LOW MOVES FARTHER NE OFFSHORE AND AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TODAY FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO NW TO N WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT AS HIGH CENTER BUILDS IN. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE THU NT/EARLY FRI MORN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
837 PM CST
WE HAVE OPTED NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS
EVENING...WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...I HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS AS THE
EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
DECOUPLING TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH I DID NOT ALTER FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MUCH...THE LIGHTER WINDS (5KT OR LESS) SHOULD HELP
KEEP WIND CHILLS AT...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 BELOW IN MOST
AREAS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
328 PM CST
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LINGERING MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN COLD TEMPS AND LOW
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...MODERATE SNOW STEADILY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW PUSHING THROUGH AREAS FROM GIBSON
CITY TO RENSSELAER. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE PERSISTENT FGEN
DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SNOW
TO EXIT TO THE CWA AROUND THE 23Z TIME THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WHERE
ONE HALF MILE TO THREE QUARTER MILE VIS IS STILL BE OBSERVED. END
TIMING FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES END
TIME OF 23Z ALSO STILL APPEARING GOOD. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
COULD STILL PERSIST SLIGHTLY JUST BEYOND 23Z...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
NO MORE THAN A HALF HOUR OF SNOW. THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SNOW WILL
LEAVE MOST LOCATIONS DRY LATER THIS EVENING BUT WITH COLDER AIR
SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT...MAINLY PORTER
COUNTY. BEST FOCUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
BUT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL STILL
POSSIBLE.
THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR...CLEARING SKIES...AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER COLD
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THIS EVENING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OBSERVING SUBZERO LOWS TONIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS LOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND LIKELY REMAINING UNDER CLOUD COVER LONGER. HAD DEBATED
ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE ILLINOIS
COUNTIES BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT DO
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...TEMPS DO APPEAR TO BE RATHER
COLD TONIGHT AND COULD SEE THE EVENING CREW ISSUING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
328 PM CST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE ONGOING WARMING ALOFT...WITH
BACKING WINDS AND STRONG WAA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COULD
HELP PROVIDE WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING
THIS WARMUP. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING TEMPS IN THE MID
30S AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
SATURDAY...DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUIDANCE. I WONDER HOW MUCH
THIS WARMING ALOFT COULD BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...AND THEN
ESPECIALLY WITH A SOLID SNOWPACK IN PLACE. AM MORE FOCUSED ON THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THEN THE UNLIKELY
WARMER TEMPS...AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE MONITORED. ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...BUT WITH ALL
SNOW THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
WHILE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO
10-12KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SAG
TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKE...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING AT THE
SURFACE...SETTING UP A STRONG INVERSION. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND 45 KT JUST ABOVE
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT ARND 3KFT...AND THE INVERSION LAYER
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SO...EXPECT STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE QUIET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THURSDAY
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIP AT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS BECOMING EAST.
SUNDAY...MVFR. WINTRY PRECIP AND IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
154 PM CST
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST/WEST GALES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MORE MODEST NORTHEAST-EAST
FLOW ALSO APPEARS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND
HELPING TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE LAKE...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HIGH CENTER OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP AGAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...AS THE HIGH SPREADS SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKES
ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW-END GALES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND
FAR SOUTH ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...THUS HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS
FROM 3 PM CST THURSDAY THROUGH 3 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
CROSSES THE LAKE.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGGING TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW THEN LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SET
UP A PERIOD OF MODESTLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW...DEPENDING UPON
THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO.
FOR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IL...EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IND. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ICE SEEN IN MODIS POLAR
ORBITER SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING. WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW CURRENT ONE TO PLAY OUT AND ALLOW
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE DURATION OF LESS THAN SCA CRITERIA
THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM
FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1107 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Except for extreme southeast Illinois, the snow has ended early
this evening. Expect the snow to push out of southeast IL in the
next hour as Arctic high settles in from the northwest by Thursday
morning. Very cold temperatures expected across the area tonight
but as the center of the high shifts into west central Illinois by
morning, winds will decrease across the entire forecast area. Wind
chill values will be ranging from -10 to -20 across the far north,
but because of the lighter winds, we are not seeing a prolonged
period of wind chills of less than -15 Thursday morning, so will
not add any headlines across the north at this time. If it appears
winds will hold up longer than currently forecast, will need to
reconsider any wind chill headlines. The critical time period
would be from 2 am until 9 am but current HRRR and Rapid Refresh
guidance suggest winds will be quite light during this time.
As the high settles in from the northwest, clearing will continue
to work its way southeast this evening with most of the area seeing
a clear sky during the early morning hours which should last thru
the day on Thursday. Look for a return southerly flow to start to
setup Thursday afternoon across the west as the center of the cold
air mass shifts off to our east. Have already sent out a couple
of updates with the expiration of the Winter Weather Advisory and
to address precip type issues over far southeast Illinois. Will
be adjusting the ending time over far southeast Illinois along
with some tweaks to the sky and wind grids which will bring about
another ZFP update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Will remove some southern and western counties west of the IL river
from the winter weather advisory that goes until 5 pm this afternoon
for 2-4 inches of snow. A cold front just passed southeast of
Lawrenceville at mid afternoon with a snow band pressing ese to
along I-72 and has been weakening the past few hours. Short wave
shearing out/weakening as it pushes into southeast IL late today and
expect snow band to continue to weaken as well. Could be some light
rain in southeast IL late this afternoon before switching to light
snow, but less than 1 inch of snow accumulations there before ending
by mid evening. Clouds to decrease from the nw later this evening
and overnight as nnw winds 10-20 mph and some higher gusts of 20-25
mph diminish as well especially overnight as 1036 mb arctic high
pressure over the central Dakotas settles to the IA/MO/IL border
area by mid morning Thu. Wind chills approach 15 below zero between
2-9 am north of peoria but will hold off on wind chill advisory as
its a small area and window for this occurrence with winds becoming
light overnight. Lows overnight range from zero to 7 below zero from
Lincoln north to around 10F se of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
Morning upper air shows digging shortwave through ND into MN
tracking southeast. Minor wave seen in moisture channel satellite
moving east from eastern NE to IA. Upper level jet streak in WY-NE.
Upper waves have triggered enough lift north of the southwest MO to
central IL surface front. 850mb shows weak fetch of moisture into
the region, triggering the snow development and moving it over
region through the day.
Overnight system will continue to track to the east, with snow
tappering off and moving to east. this will allow frigid 850mb cold
air to flow into area overnight, with high center by morning over
region, resulting in wind chill advisory over northern sections.
Models consistant in continued upper level northwest flow, which
will push high center to east and allow weak southerly low level
flow for late in the week through start of weekend.
For weekend, weak wave develops surface low on front, moves over
central IL. Very little upper support for feature, so lowered pops
Sat night, Sun, and Sun night to slight chance. For Wed, more
significant wave moves through the Great Lakes with trailing cold
front. With continue slight chance pops with front passage.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period (06z
Fri). Arctic high pressure will push into extreme west central
Illinois by Thursday morning keeping the sky clear with winds
continuing to diminish out of the northwest. The high will
track across the area on Thursday with a mostly clear sky and
light winds. Look for the surface winds to become south at
around 10 kts by afternoon across western Illinois with
the surface flow gradually turning into a southeast to south
direction by late afternoon over eastern Illinois. A southerly
flow will continue into Thursday evening with speeds averaging
from 4 to 9 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN
COLORADO. INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING... THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL I AM EXPECTING
MINIMAL IMPACT AS TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WAA WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TOWARDS
THE CO/KS BORDER AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED WAA/TEMPS ALOFT...WE
COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
TODAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FRIDAY AND NEAR 80F ON
SATURDAY. TD VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING UNDER
THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA (15 PERCENT). WITH GENERALLY WEAK
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND LIMITED WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT...I AM NOT EXPECTING THE WIND/RH CROSSOVER NEEDED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BROAD RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A 700/500MB SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
REGION...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PART OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
ROLL SOUTH FORMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. BY DOING THIS...MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMNANTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
TRI STATE REGION. WITH LIMITED QPF...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RW/SW IN NE COLORADO INITIALLY AS SYSTEM WORKS OFF
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY SE ZONES SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE
TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. W/ LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RANGE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...AND NEAR 10-15 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAA DOES
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE...SO DO EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK ALTHOUGH SOME MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY FEB 6...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY FEB 7...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
956 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
RADAR RETURNS INDICATED LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
IR IMAGERY INDICATED OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
AREA. RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STEADY
PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL STREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT.
ALL SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME FOG POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT SEEM TO SHOW
A WELL DEFINED SATURATED LAYER OVER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...SO
NO FOG IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE MID MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH WARM FRONT.
A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOPPING THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
ABOVE 7KFT AGL. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK ALTHOUGH SOME MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
118 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE SC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING NNE
ALONG COASTAL FRONT ORIENTED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH
UP FROM COASTAL GA/SC INTO COASTAL SE NC AT 02Z. RUC COND PRES DEF
AND 295-305K ISENTROPIC SFC FIELDS ALL SHOWING RAIN ASCENDING THE
NC CRYSTAL COAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN MOVING
ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR AREA MAINLY SE OF HWY 158 ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC FROM AROUND 11 PM THROUGH 2-3AM...
EVENTUALLY BRINGING LOWERING CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN CHCS TO FAR
E-SE VA FROM 12 AM THROUGH DAWN THU MORNING. ACCORDINGLY, LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS 70-90% CONTINUE ACROSS (CSTL) NE NC ZONES
OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT). HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST INLAND
WITH FORECAST MODELS/SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ORIENTING
SHRAS ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY THU. HOWEVER, HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER PER LATEST SAT IMAGERY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
CDFNT TO THE WEST ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK THU IN FAR W-NW PORTIONS
OF THE FA. BUFR SOUNDINGS OVER EASTERN SHORE LOCATIONS AND HRRR
BOTH INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES/SLEET
PELLETS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH TO OVERCAST SOUTH WITH EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS FM LOW TO MID
30S NW TO ~40 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LO PRES MOVES OUT TO SEA THU...W/ ARCTIC CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH
THE FA. HANGING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC POPS AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN THE
MRNG...OTRW VRB CLDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHWRS W/ OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
CDFNT. WILL HAVE MIXED RA/SN FOR NE SECTIONS OF FA AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. CLEARING XPCD FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN FM W-E AS NW WNDS
BECOME GUSTY TO 30 TO 40 MPH. HI TEMPS TO BE REACHED IN THE
MRNG/MIDDAY...THEN FALL OFF (BY LT IN THE AFTN). HI TEMPS IN THE
M/U30S NW TO THE M40S SE.
CANADIAN SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW BEGINNING THU EVE AND
SETTLES OVER THE REGION LT THU NGT THROUGH FRI. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
DIMINISH (TO LGT W OF THE BAY) AFT MDNGT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NR
MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MNLY SKC W/ LO TEMPS MNLY 15 TO 20F.
MSTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY FRI AS WNDS ARE SLOW TO BECOME SW. HI TEMPS
FM 35 TO 40F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M/U40S (WELL) INLAND. SFC HI
PRES RMNS TO THE S OF THE RGN FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...RESULTING IN
CONTD MODERATION. SEASONABLY COLD FRI NGT UNDER CLR-PCLDY
CONDS...W/ LO TEMPS MNLY FM 25 TO 30F. PARTLY SUNNY...MILDER
AGAIN SAT W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M/U40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M50S
(WELL) INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHES FM THE W AND DEVELOPS A SFC LO OVER THE REGION BY MON.
FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE OH VALLEY. WITH
S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S
EVERYWHERE TO NR 60 OVER SRN AREAS ON SUN. PCPN ARRIVE LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT...IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN AS THE FA INITIALLY IS
LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR. GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN (50% POPS) THEN
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE SFC LO AND ASSOCIATED UPR-LEVEL TROF
SLIDE THRU THE AREA. TRACK OF THIS SFC LO AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT CAN MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LO WHILE PCPN
CONTINUES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY WINTER WX OCCURS. FOR
NOW...FORECAST CALLS FOR RAIN SE HALF OF AREA AND RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
NW HALF OF AREA FOR MON NIGHT/TUE. CONDS THEN DRY OUT FOR TUE NGT
AND WED AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN WILL IMPACT KECG...AND POSSIBLY KORF DURING THIS TIME. MVFR
CIGS WILL OCCUR AT KECG...AND IF ANY LIGHT RAIN REACHES KORF AM
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. OTW...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AT REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POISED TO PASS OVER THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT. GUSTS SHOULD AVERAGE 30-35 KT BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR BY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPING LO
PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY.
THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TNGT/THU MORNG...AS LO
PRES SLIDES UP THE SE COASTLINE. AS FOR HEADLINES...MAINTAINED ALL
PREVIOUS HAZARDS WITH A GALE WARNING OVER THE BAY/SOUND/OCEAN AND
A SCA OVER THE RIVERS. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED OVER THE BAY
AND CSTL WTRS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVENG...WITH WINDS THEN SUBSIDING
LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS UP TO 7-9 FT OUT 20 NM. SFC HI PRES AND IMPROVING MARINE
CONDS THEN FOR FRI AND SAT. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA ERLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1150 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...A
FRESH NORTHERLY WIND WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW...SENDING AIR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1130 PM...AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
REGION HOWEVER THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW DUE TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS LAKE ENAHNCEMENT...UPSLOPING...AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN ALSO BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY ONCE THIS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE ACTION. THIS IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE HRRR AND IN A
GENERAL SENSE BY THE NAM/RGEM.
INITIALLY...IT WILL BE TOO DRY AND NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL RAPIDLY AND MOISTURE WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE BY LATE TONIGHT. A NORTH- NORTHWEST WIND WILL BRING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HILLS OF SW NYS
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. MESO SCALE MODELS ARE ALSO
SUGGESTING THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON WILL ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SUCH THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF FRESH SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME. FAVOR THE RGEM/NAM OVER THE HRRR AT
THIS POINT SINCE THE HRRR SEEMS A BIT TOO SLOW TO REDEVELOP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED IN AN
OTHERWISE MULTIBANDED SET UP. THIS NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION MAY GENERATE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW FROM NEAR ORLEANS COUNTY...SHIFTING TO THE CAYUGA/OSWEGO COUNTY
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS MUCH COLDER
AIR ALOFT FLOODS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES AT 850
HPA TOMORROW WILL DROP TO AROUND -22C. UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW FROM THE
DAYBREAK VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TAKING ON A DIMINISHING TREND AS INVERSION HEIGHTS START TO
LOWER...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO SET UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CLIPPER LOW WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FROM EAST OF ROCHESTER THROUGH WAYNE TO
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. THE BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT THE WEAKENING LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARD...REACHING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY CREST
OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOWPACK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
ZERO INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY FALLING INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR EVEN COLDER. AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL START TO
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE RISING
TEMPERATURES...THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN LATER FORECASTS.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST AREAS...OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES. A COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE LAKE SNOWS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION THERE.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES GET
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR A SERIES OF PACIFIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING TIMING OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVES WITHIN THIS PATTERN...AND THUS DIFFICULTY EXISTS IN
TIMING THE PERIODIC STRONGER FORCING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AND
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS
UNCERTAIN...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR PERIODS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BY TUESDAY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN AS A CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST...TAKING THE BULK OF THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO OUR EAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 0430Z...IFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR ENTERING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD KEY A RISE IN VSBY/CIGS...WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...BUT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
JHW/ROC.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR...WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY. MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SHIFT TO NW WINDS AND A BRIEF UPTICK IN
WIND SPEED. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY- WORTHY WINDS
AND WAVES TO AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY SLACKENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES TOWARDS THE LAKES TOMORROW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
010>014-019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ002>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGH...AND REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE
AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS INDICATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION NEAR
AND OFFSHORE OF KILM AND KOAJ HAS EXPANDED NOTICEABLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY
A LOCALIZED REGION OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A LARGER MORE
FAVORABLE REGION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. RECENT NWP GUIDANCE HAS
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SHARP WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD LINE UP NEAR I-95. RECENT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDE AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE WESTERN BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN SAMPSON AND EASTERN
WAYNE COUNTY. LATEST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN MAY PERSIST TO AROUND 11-13Z IN SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES...SO
HAVE EXTENDED POPS TO AROUND DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. -BLAES
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: PRECIP OVER THE FAR ERN FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE DEPARTING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THU MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE
COAST PRIOR TO THU MORNING. BUT THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF... EXPECTED TO PUSH NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NC THU MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA... WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO MAINLY A NNW OR
NORTHERLY DIRECTION... WITH STRENGTHENING SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES IN FULL FORCE. WE SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC THU... HOWEVER MODEL BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 24-28 KT
RANGE THU... IN LINE WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS... ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS ALONG
THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
SOURCE OF THE INCOMING AIR MASS... HAVE GONE ON THE COOLER END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THU... FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO NEAR 50
SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD TREND TO CLEAR BY LATE THU AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRYING AND STABILIZING COLUMN... AND WINDS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 1260S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WEATHER WISE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS SITS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A DRY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT...POSSIBLY OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED...THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN FULL INSOLATION
WOULD SUGGEST. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING AS A SMALLER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF A UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES. THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THAT MAY SEE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. STILL...EXPECT AN ALMOST 10
DEGREE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE
LONG TERM WITH A STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-
ATLANTIC PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BUT MOST OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING BEGINS AND NORTHWESTERLIES GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLIES...THUS CREATING A DEEPER LAYER OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPEN THUS CREATING A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT
OVER CENTRAL NC. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM UNTIL MONDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC...IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT MODELS DIVERGE AS TO THE INITIAL
LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER
THE CAROLINAS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HPC MODEL ANALYSIS
FAVORS THE SLOWER GFS AT THIS POINT AS OPPOSED TO THE 00 RUN OF THE
ECMWF. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN HAS CONTINUED TO BE A FAST OUTLIER
AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST PACKAGE FROM HERE ON OUT WILL BE BASED ON
THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE AND HPC GUIDANCE. THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE A SLOWER SYSTEM THAT DELAYS THE ONSET OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH
MORE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WITH LOWER DECKS THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOME BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TIMING WILL DEPEND
ON MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION...WILL INCREASE POPS
MONDAY MORNING BUT MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY GOOD SATURATION UP THROUGH ALMOST 500 MB AND PW
VALUES OF 0.75 INCHES. THAT BEING SAID THE EURO IS MUCH DRIER AND
THESE DETAILS ARE BETTER LEFT TO BE IRONED OUT LATER. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS FRONTAL PASSAGE ISNT
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT SO NO P-TYPE ISSUES AT THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH COLDER (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S)
WETBULBS AND SURFACE TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE MODERATELY COLDER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER
WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE OVER THE EAST COAST...CLEARING THINGS OUT. IN ADDITION SURFACE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A LITTLE BY THE AFTERNOON BRINING GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR INSOLATION RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NE TO
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
HAS SPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AS FAR WEST AS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC. THIS PRECIPITATION IS QUITE
LIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE PRECIPITATION AND THE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KFAY AND KRWI BY 09Z AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
BLUSTERY NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 14Z-22Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THE
BLUSTERY NLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SWLY WINDS WILL BE A TAD
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY GUSTING 17-20KTS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SWD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS BY MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLAES/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1217 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHING IN FROM THE
WEST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
WHILE IT`S BEEN RAINING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AND MORE RECENTLY COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA...PRECIPITATION HAS
NOT SPREAD INLAND ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND RECENT HRRR RUNS
SUGGEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z (MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM THURSDAY) WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR...SO I HAVE NOT REMOVED POPS HERE ENTIRELY. I HAVE
HOWEVER TRIMMED BACK FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON...WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES. LOW PRESSURE IS VERY
CLOSE TO CAPE FEAR WITH SOUTH WINDS NOW OBSERVED AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THESE SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM
FOLLOWS...
RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED VIA WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
800-600 MB LAYER...OR MORE PRECISELY THROUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING ALONG THE 300K-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE BEST LIFT IS
SHOWN IN ALL RECENT MODEL OUTPUT TO OCCUR NOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME DRYING IS SLOW TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BUT THE LESSER DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GA/SC COAST
ALONG A COASTAL FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT COULD MAKE IT TO WITHIN
10 MILES OF THE SE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
LOW ZIPS NORTH AND PULLS THE THE BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS ITS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED OFF THE EAST
COAST INTO OUR DEVELOPING STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW.
WITH THIS UPDATE I HAVE MAINTAINED 100 POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES. FARTHER INLAND RADAR
TRENDS AND RECENT MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE IT MAY BE HARD TO GET
MEASURABLE RAIN WEST OF I-95...AND I HAVE NUDGED DOWN FORECAST POPS
HERE INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS LIKE BENNETTSVILLE AND
HARTSVILLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT
APPROACH THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EITHER ONSHORE OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT...IMPLYING NO CHANCE OF THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PUSHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THURS MORNING. A DEEP NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURS MORNING ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW EVEN BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FLOW OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED LATER IN THE DAY AS DEEP TROUGH
DRIVES COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRODUCING A DEEP
DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET THROUGH
THURS AS COLUMN DRIES OUT. THEREFORE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURS. MOST PLACES WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH
PAST 50 AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH LATE THURS
AFTN INTO THE EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURS NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN AND
ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE BY LATE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CAA TO
START AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER ON WILL BRING TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRI
BUT ESSENTIALLY WILL BE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AS COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. COLUMN
REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGIT DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...BUT A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 20S BY FRI NIGHT. A MINOR
PERTURBATION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FRI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF SHORE WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BUT OVERALL
EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A NICE EARLY-FEBRUARY WEEKEND ON TAP
LOCALLY AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW PUSHES A HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL CREATE A DRY COLUMN WITH SURFACE
WAA...AND SEASONABLE-TO-ABOVE-SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF
THE TWO DAYS...BUT BOTH WILL BE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING VORTICITY IMPULSE DIVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL BECOME A STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY TOO LATE TO AFFECT THE CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. HOWEVER...CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH THIS DEEPENING FEATURE WILL
CROSS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAINFALL...BUT
QPF IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEY WILL CRASH QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TONIGHT...BRINGING IN BATCHES OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS A GOOD BET. ALL THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST BY 16Z...WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO SCATTER AFTER THAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 8-9 KTS BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH SUN. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
THE COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED UP TO THE BEACHES OF SE NORTH
CAROLINA WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH SHOWING
A SOUTH WIND AT JOHNNIE MERCER PIER. THE LOW IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR
CAPE FEAR AT THE MOMENT...AND ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW
THE FRONT TO KICK BACK OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM
THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS NECESSITATED BY THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THE COASTAL FRONT...FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM FOLLOWS...
A COASTAL FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY
LOCATION WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOW BEING REPORTED. LOW
PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THIS FRONT WILL ZIP
NORTHWARD...PASSING NORTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY NORTHWARD
INTO THE ZIPPER LOW...HELPING DEVELOP IT INTO A STRONG NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALONG THE SC COAST SHOULD BACK AROUND TO
THE NW FOLLOWING THE LOW`S PASSAGE. THINGS COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT COULD GET
QUITE FAR INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING... BEFORE THE NW WINDS PUNCH IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE
STRONGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE SEAS OUT THERE...SOME OF WHICH WILL PROPAGATE
WESTWARD INTO THE WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. I WILL MAINTAIN THE `EXERCISE CAUTION` HEADLINE FOR THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FOR 4-5 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PUSHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THURS MORNING. DEEP NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD REACH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS
BY NOON TIME ON THURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON UNTIL 1 AM FRI. CANT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING GRADIENT TO RELAX
OVERNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE MARKEDLY
OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS
IN THE OUTER WATERS JUST REACHING NEAR 6 FT THURS AFTN AND COMING
BACK DOWN RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD BY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OF FRI WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH A WEAK WESTERLY RETURN
FLOW FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI
MORNING AND DOWN BELOW 3 FT BY FRI EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SW RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. INITIALLY THESE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY TO AROUND 20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FROPA LATE MONDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AT JUST 1-2 FT THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY...BUT WILL CLIMB STEADILY TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MAY TICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. ATTM NO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO END PCPN QUICKER BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
IN ADDITION...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO...AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM MINUS 10 TO MINUS 17 ACROSS RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES FROM 9
PM TONIGHT TO 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND CROSSES
THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/05/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H L L H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/ARJ/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
318 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO END PCPN QUICKER BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
IN ADDITION...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO...AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM MINUS 10 TO MINUS 17 ACROSS RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES FROM 9
PM TONIGHT TO 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CROSSES FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH A NICE HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/05/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H L L H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/ARJ/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1248 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CROSSES FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH A NICE HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/05/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L H M M M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/ARJ/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
136 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC SHOULD
BRING PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A RAIN-SNOW LINE ROUGHLY BETWEEN I-80 AND
THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A RATHER UNIFORM WIDE FRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER ROUGHLY THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA AT 06Z. THE
SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND
BEHIND (REAR QUADRANT) OF UPPER JET CIRCULATION EXITING NEW
ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING
RETURNS OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THE 05Z HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A FRACTURE DEVELOPING IN THE SNOW BAND OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA -- PERHAPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING -- WHILE HITTING
THE LAURELS AND ENDLESS MTNS/SRN POCONOS THE HARDEST WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH 12Z. A RELATIVE MIN IN SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY FROM HGR TO SEG. THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z...WHICH SHOULD BECOME THE
MAIN STORY HEADING THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN
12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR BARRELS INTO THE REGION. HELD ON TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
FOCUS FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS
BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC
VALUES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN
THE LWR SUSQ...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
EVENT WINDOW APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT AND A
RATHER EXTENSIVE NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10-12F BELOW
NORMAL.
AFTERWARD...A STRENGTHENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NJ OR DELMARVA COAST.
SEVERAL...INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF JET ENERGY /WITH ERN
PACIFIC ORIGIN/ WILL RIDE ESE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND UPPER MISS
VALLEY AND INITIATE PULSES OF SWRLY WAA/UVVEL OVER THE BOUNDARY
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MDT
SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
OVERCAST SKIES BLANKETING AT LEAST THE NW HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA TO START THE WEEKEND...WILL SPREAD SE AND COVER ALL OF
THE COMMONWEALTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
12Z GFS/EC/AND CMC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
FINAL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING AS IT HEADS SE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST...GENERATING A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
/APPROX 1004 HPA/ ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS /AT THIS POINT IN TIME/ SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING TO
THE DELMARVA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
12Z BIAS CORRECTED GEFS IS JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THE THE SFC LOW
TRACK...WHILE THE 12Z NAEFS TAKES THE SFC LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND N CAROLINA.
GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS POINT /IMPACTING A MORE DEFINITIVE AND
SPECIFIC FORECAST FOR RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL PENN/ IS BE THE LARGE
AMT OF /SPREAD/ IN MSLP FROM NRN PENN INTO SRN ONTARIO...AND THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE STEADY...SIGNIFICANT STRIPE OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF THE QUASI- STNRY BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW...POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE WEIGHTED HIGHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENN WITH 60-70 POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS PROBABLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT "EVENT"
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS OF 12-HOURLY POPS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT /LARGE MSLP
SPREAD/ IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FROM HERE NORTH.
TEMP FCST WILL OBVIOUSLY ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTH/MVMT OF THE HIGH ACROSS
SERN CANADA. FOR NOW...USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND TO ARRIVE AT TEMPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MILDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SFC LOW JUST TO
THE NW OF OUR AREA...AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SE TWD THE COMMONWEALTH.
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA /CLOSE TO THE QUASI-STNRY FRONT/ WILL
LKLY BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY COOL TO NEAR AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KJST TO KUNV AND KIPT AT 06Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THRU THE REST OF PA BY ARND 09Z. POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LGT
SNOW/LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS
ALREADY ENTERING NW PA AT 06Z AND SHOULD REACH KBFD ARND 08Z AND
KJST ARND 10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDS. ELSEWHERE...THE DRYING EFFECT
OF A NW WIND WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDS EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDS AT
KAOO AND KUNV BTWN 06Z-09Z AND JUST A CHC OF A BRIEF MVFR
REDUCTION AT KMDT/KLNS BTWN 09Z-12Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY.
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004-005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1125 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHERWISE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE EARLIER
ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
ABOUT THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT CURRENT IS TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY.
AS OF 645 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IN
THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY ROUGHLY TWO TO THREE HOURS BASED UPON THE
LATEST 18Z/1PM GFS/NAM/WRF ARW GUIDANCE AND 22Z/5PM HRRR OUTPUT.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. A FEW OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY GUST
CRITERIA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THE SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ONLY.
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A 1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. THE RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN
TO OUR EAST.
A SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF
MOSTLY POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW THAT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE FAR WEST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE GETTING UNDERCUT BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW UPON HEADING EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE EAST
DRY OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW MAY PUSH EAST TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE QUICKLY FADING TOWARD DAWN AS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE KICKS IN.
THE WESTERN UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TWO INCHES WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW AND THERMAL PROFILES...THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH SNOW TO
WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY CONSIDERING THE LOW AMOUNTS AND LIMITED
AREA AFFECTED. IN GENERAL...CLOUD COVER INCREASES TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHT
85H TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH THE
NORTH CAROLINA RIDGES CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD MORNING
GIVEN A RATHER LOW INVERSION BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER JET
ALOFT. WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH TO AROUND 40 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES AS COORDINATED WITH GSP AND LWX.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO OUR REGION. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. USED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE STRONG CAA TO ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO FALL
IN WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM THE TEENS IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
5H TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE WE STAY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS START TO RISE INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC SHIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD
TOWARD THE NRN VA AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MODELS HOLDING PRECIP
JUST NORTH OF US DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS TO
TEENS ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF SE WV.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOW
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 20S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND BLF.
MAY START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS ARRIVING SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WITH FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL TEMPS WILL BE MILDER AS
THICKNESSES RISE...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MORE CLOUD ARRIVE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A RIDGE/TROF
CONFIGURATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROF STARTS OFF
BROAD ON SUNDAY...THEN SHARPENS INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF MONDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
BROAD WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY SUGGESTS A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF OUR REGION...
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND...THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SPAWNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME...AND DRAGGING THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. ATTM IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO THE COLDER AIRMASS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION THAT ARRIVES WITH THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN SUNDAY/MONDAY...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS TRACK THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY...PASSING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
CWA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN ARRIVING IN THE
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST TO ENCOMPASS AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS PAINTS A VERY WET PICTURE FOR
MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS MODEL HAS
TRENDED WETTER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z/1AM.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
09Z/4AM AND 14Z/9AM. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE WVA TERMINALS INTO FAR WESTERN
VA...WEST OF ROANOKE. DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD PREVENT THE LOWER
CIGS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH CLOUD BASES REMAINING
ABOVE 3KFT AND SUPPORTING VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR FROM THE
ROANOKE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO VA/NC TO INCLUDE KROA/KLYH/KDAN.
A WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY.
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
948 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RISING AS THE WINDS HAVE YET TO KICK IN. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE
TEMPERATURES AND UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW
FLURRIES NEAR THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER.
AS SNOW ENDS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TONIGHT. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 IN THESE AREAS...SO THERE WILL BE
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH IN THESE
AREAS SO TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IMPACTED...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS THIS
EVENING AS BLOWING SNOW HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW...BRINGING AN END TO ANY BLOWING SNOW.
WARMING TREND BEGINS TOMORROW BUT SNOW WILL INHIBIT WARMING OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST SNOW WILL MELT BY THE END OF THE
DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HEAVIER BAND WHICH FELL FROM AROUND
WHEATLAND TO TORRINGTON TO ALLIANCE. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE
IMPACTED DUE TO SNOW ON THE GROUND FRIDAY AS WELL WITHIN THE
HEAVIER BAND. NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. MODELS DISAGREE IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT BECOMING FAIRLY
CONFIDENT STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH MID 40S TO
MID 50S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA MAY REACH 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE STILL EXPECTED. MODELS
INDICATE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FOR THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH PLAINS...PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DUE TO DAYTIME CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO LOSE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING FROPA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS 12 TO
18 HOURS LATER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW FORMING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE KEY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY NEXT THURSDAY. FOR
NOW...KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TRENDED MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
LATEST HRRR HAS GOTTEN RID OF THE LOW CEILINGS IN AND AROUND KCYS.
LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD SOON BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPING...SO DO HAVE TO GO WITH WHAT THE HRRR IS SHOWING. ONE
LAST BAND OF SNOW OUT BY KSNY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. VFR AND WINDY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS
THURSDAY.|
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...
MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND
FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
THIS MORNING THERE WL STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF EL
PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THESE DISSIPATING BY
MIDMORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT... WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE AREA TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVR THE AREA. A LEE TROF DEVELOPS TODAY WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE CLOUDS TO BE THICK ENOUGH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR... THAT IT WL LIMIT THE WARMING TODAY. HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...WHICH IS STILL 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.
LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS FAIRLY MILD IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
UNSEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES(WITH RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER SOME INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN COLORADO LOCATIONS) DURING THE MAJORITY OF
THE LONGER TERM AND THEN INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 8C AT TIMES FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL(ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS) DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. LOCATIONS
FROM THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INTO THE UPPER 70S
...WHICH IF REALIZED...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BREAKING SOME RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THEN...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW-GRADE POPS MAY BE NOTED AT TIMES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY) AND CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS BASICALLY
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING PREVAILS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COOLER AND POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT. STILL
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF IMPACT AS 06Z GFS40 SUGGESTS
THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
KCOS IS EXPECTED TO STILL HAVE SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE VCNTY THRU
ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. KPUB
SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z AND THEN CONDITIONS WL
BECOME VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
909 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY EXTENDING FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO THE FORT
LAUDERDALE AREA. MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. COMPARISON OF THIS MORNING 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTING SPS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT TODAY`S SOUNDING SHOWS A
STRONG LAPSE RATE OF 7 TO 8 C/KM BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. A POCKET
OF DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT AT THAT LEVEL. THIS COULD ENHANCE SOME
POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. IN
GENERAL, THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
40 TO 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS 40-50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD TECHNICALLY INDUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SOLAR HEATING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FAST ENOUGH THAT WE
DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF GENERALIZED FLOODING. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
CAN SEE SOME BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON THE STREETS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
AVIATION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KAPF HAS VCTS AND
COULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...VCTS NOT ASSIGNED AS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE. REGIONAL WINDS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO SSW AND FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
18Z WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOT RANGE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 61 71 59 / 90 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 60 72 61 / 90 30 20 10
MIAMI 79 60 73 60 / 90 30 20 10
NAPLES 74 54 72 53 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD 84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
609 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KAPF HAS VCTS AND
COULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...VCTS NOT ASSIGNED AS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE. REGIONAL WINDS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO SSW AND FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
18Z WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOT RANGE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
AVIATION...
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPING FRONT THERE IS A LINE OF CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE OF CONVECTION
COULD ENTER THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND
09Z...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...VCTS ASSIGNED AT 09Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILARLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH NO VCTS
IN THE TAF`S. WINDS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AROUND 14-15Z TIME
FRAME WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST
BUT VERY BRIEF PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 61 71 59 / 90 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 60 72 61 / 90 30 20 10
MIAMI 79 60 73 60 / 90 30 20 10
NAPLES 74 54 72 53 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
435 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN
COLORADO. INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING... THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL I AM EXPECTING
MINIMAL IMPACT AS TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WAA WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TOWARDS
THE CO/KS BORDER AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED WAA/TEMPS ALOFT...WE
COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
TODAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FRIDAY AND NEAR 80F ON
SATURDAY. TD VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING UNDER
THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA (15 PERCENT). WITH GENERALLY WEAK
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND LIMITED WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT...I AM NOT EXPECTING THE WIND/RH CROSSOVER NEEDED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BROAD RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A 700/500MB SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
REGION...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PART OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
ROLL SOUTH FORMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. BY DOING THIS...MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMNANTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
TRI STATE REGION. WITH LIMITED QPF...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RW/SW IN NE COLORADO INITIALLY AS SYSTEM WORKS OFF
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY SE ZONES SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE
TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. W/ LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RANGE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...AND NEAR 10-15 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAA DOES
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE...SO DO EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS DEEP
DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO REGION. GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 12KT THEN PREVAILING AFTER 15-17Z. COULD SEE
SOME SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY OR WESTERLY DIRECTION AT
TIMES...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY FEB 6...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY FEB 7...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1026 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
STREAKY SNOW BANDS THIS MORNING SHIFTING INTO THE N MOUNTAINS AS
VORT MAX AND S/W TROF AXIS SHIFTS E. HAVE SOME DETERMINISTIC POPS
INTO EARLY AFTN FOR THESE SHSN...WHICH WILL LOCALLY PRODUCE
REDUCED VSBY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COATINGS. THE DRY AIR WILL WIN
OUT THOUGH...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...SUNSHINE WILL BECOME THE RULE WITH TEMPS STAYING IN A
NEAR STEADY STATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 02Z...FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON SCHEDULE...FROM OUR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF SE OHIO AND WAS NEARING
HTS AFTER 02Z. LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN PERRY COUNTY. BY
DAWN...THE HIGHER POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES....BUT
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO IN THE MORNING...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BANDS IN THE COLDER AIR.
STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT...WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP MORE
SIGNIFICANT. DID INCLUDE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES FROM OUR EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION BELOW...
BASING EARLY EVENING UPDATE ON FRONT REACHING PKB BY 02Z...CKB TO
CRW AROUND 04/05Z AND INTO WV MOUNTAINS EKN TO BKW AROUND 06Z.
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATED...TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
TRACE BOTH FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER THAN WE HAD...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...THEN ALSO ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
DROP FURTHER FROM 12Z INTO 14/15Z PERIOD.
WENT TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE POST FRONTAL
SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED THE MINOR SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND CROSSES
THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE LIMITED ENOUGH TO JUST BRING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY FALL IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS VARY.
THEREFORE...USED A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM PKB SOUTH TO HTS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
MVFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK EAST TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REST OF SITES FROM
08Z THROUGH 12Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SITES THROUGH
15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR
RUSHES IN...ACCORDING WITH HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CIG AND VSBY COULD GO BRIEFLY LOWER IN THE POST
FRONTAL SNOW BAND...AND VSBY MAY OSCILLATE MORE IN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
647 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DWINDLING AREA OF POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS IN REGION OF
8-7H FGEN FORCING WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOW...ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
ARCTIC AIR MASS...HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NW MTNS AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT IT TO PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THE LOW PWAT AIR WILL REACH LANCASTER CO
BY ARND 15Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE AM COMMUTE BASED ON NR TERM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IS FROM
SCHUYLKILL CO INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING...AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. ANY ACCUMS BTWN 09Z-15Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH BASED
ON MDL QPF.
DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. WILL CARRY
ONLY ARND 50 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO AND
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY LGT SNOW OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
SHOULD END BY 15Z AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. RAP TEMP TIME SERIES SUPPORT NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE DAY...AS THE ARCTIC
AIR FLOWS IN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS BTWN
20-30KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT...TEMPS FALLING BLW ZERO COMBINED WITH A BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WCHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. IF WINDS
GO CALM...THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER IN MANY
SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
FOR WCHILL READINGS BTWN 15-20 BLW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A FAST WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FOCUS BURSTS OF WAA LIFT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND MEAN QPF AXIS...GIVEN
THAT THE SPEED OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN MAKE TRACKING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES DIFFICULT. THE NAM/SREF MEAN ARE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS.
FRIDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS AVERAGING 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATE NORMALS. NORTHERN PA
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STRIPE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD THROUGH MA...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE GIVEN CURRENT SPREAD AND POSSIBLE N-S SHIFTS IN THE MODEL
FCST QPF AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS/EC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEPICTING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFYING/CONSOLIDATING AS IT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST
COAST SUN-TUE. A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW INITIALLY TRACKING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VLY LATE SUN SHOULD SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST.
COMBO OF BEST MSTR/LIFT APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWS
ALONG WITH MIXED PCPN...WITH LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE SRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA IS AT MOST RISK FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT IS EXITING
SOUTHEAST PA AS OF 12Z. RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS
WILL REMAIN LIKELY AT KMDT THRU ARND 13Z AND KLNS THRU ARND 14Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
DAY. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN LATE TONIGHT
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS OVR THE NW MTNS DUE TO DEVELOPING STRONG
WINDS WEST WINDS ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DWINDLING AREA OF POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS IN REGION OF
8-7H FGEN FORCING WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOW...ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
ARCTIC AIR MASS...HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NW MTNS AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT IT TO PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THE LOW PWAT AIR WILL REACH LANCASTER CO
BY ARND 15Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE AM COMMUTE BASED ON NR TERM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IS FROM
SCHUYLKILL CO INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING...AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. ANY ACCUMS BTWN 09Z-15Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH BASED
ON MDL QPF.
DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. WILL CARRY
ONLY ARND 50 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO AND
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY LGT SNOW OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
SHOULD END BY 15Z AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. RAP TEMP TIME SERIES SUPPORT NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE DAY...AS THE ARCTIC
AIR FLOWS IN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS BTWN
20-30KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT...TEMPS FALLING BLW ZERO COMBINED WITH A BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WCHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. IF WINDS
GO CALM...THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER IN MANY
SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
FOR WCHILL READINGS BTWN 15-20 BLW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A FAST WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FOCUS BURSTS OF WAA LIFT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND MEAN QPF AXIS...GIVEN
THAT THE SPEED OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN MAKE TRACKING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES DIFFICULT. THE NAM/SREF MEAN ARE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS.
FRIDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS AVERAGING 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATE NORMALS. NORTHERN PA
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STRIPE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD THROUGH MA...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE GIVEN CURRENT SPREAD AND POSSIBLE N-S SHIFTS IN THE MODEL
FCST QPF AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS/EC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEPICTING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFYING/CONSOLIDATING AS IT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST
COAST SUN-TUE. A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW INITIALLY TRACKING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VLY LATE SUN SHOULD SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST.
COMBO OF BEST MSTR/LIFT APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWS
ALONG WITH MIXED PCPN...WITH LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE SRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA IS AT MOST RISK FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF VIS
REDUCTIONS BTWN 1-3SM AT KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
RAP/4KM NAM INDICATE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST PA
LATER THIS MORNING...CAUSING THE SNOW TO END AT KMDT AND KLNS BTWN
12Z-15Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
DAY. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A DWINDLING AREA OF POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS IN REGION OF
8-7H FGEN FORCING WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SNOW...ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
ARCTIC AIR MASS...HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NW MTNS AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT IT TO PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD THIS MORNING.
LATEST NAM/RAP INDICATE THE LOW PWAT AIR WILL REACH LANCASTER CO
BY ARND 15Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
THE AM COMMUTE BASED ON NR TERM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IS FROM
SCHUYLKILL CO INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING...AND ALSO ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. ANY ACCUMS BTWN 09Z-15Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH BASED
ON MDL QPF.
DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FALLING INVERSION HGTS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. WILL CARRY
ONLY ARND 50 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT OF WARREN CO AND
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ANY LGT SNOW OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
SHOULD END BY 15Z AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION BACK TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS. RAP TEMP TIME SERIES SUPPORT NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS DURING THE DAY...AS THE ARCTIC
AIR FLOWS IN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS BTWN
20-30KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT...TEMPS FALLING BLW ZERO COMBINED WITH A BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WCHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. IF WINDS
GO CALM...THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER IN MANY
SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
FOR WCHILL READINGS BTWN 15-20 BLW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A FAST WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FOCUS BURSTS OF WAA LIFT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND MEAN QPF AXIS...GIVEN
THAT THE SPEED OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN MAKE TRACKING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES DIFFICULT. THE NAM/SREF MEAN ARE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS.
FRIDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS AVERAGING 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATE NORMALS. NORTHERN PA
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED STRIPE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD THROUGH MA...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE GIVEN CURRENT SPREAD AND POSSIBLE N-S SHIFTS IN THE MODEL
FCST QPF AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS/EC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN DEPICTING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFYING/CONSOLIDATING AS IT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST
COAST SUN-TUE. A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW INITIALLY TRACKING EWD
THROUGH THE OH VLY LATE SUN SHOULD SLIDE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST.
COMBO OF BEST MSTR/LIFT APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS EVENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWS
ALONG WITH MIXED PCPN...WITH LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE SRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA IS AT MOST RISK FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KJST TO KUNV AND KIPT AT 06Z...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THRU THE REST OF PA BY ARND 09Z. POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LGT
SNOW/LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS
ALREADY ENTERING NW PA AT 06Z AND SHOULD REACH KBFD ARND 08Z AND
KJST ARND 10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDS. ELSEWHERE...THE DRYING EFFECT
OF A NW WIND WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE FLYING CONDS EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDS AT
KAOO AND KUNV BTWN 06Z-09Z AND JUST A CHC OF A BRIEF MVFR
REDUCTION AT KMDT/KLNS BTWN 09Z-12Z.
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS TO CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/FLURRIES AT KBFD AND KJST FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY.
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO BTWN 20-30KTS
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS MOST LIKELY AT KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING WIND AND LIKELY CAUSING ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVR
THE W MTNS TO BREAK UP.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SLIGHT CHC OF AM LGT SNOW NORTH.
SAT NITE-SUN...RAIN/SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP W MTNS.
MON...SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP EARLY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1024 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
THIS MORNING THERE WL STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF EL
PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THESE DISSIPATING BY
MIDMORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT... WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE AREA TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVR THE AREA. A LEE TROF DEVELOPS TODAY WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE CLOUDS TO BE THICK ENOUGH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR... THAT IT WL LIMIT THE WARMING TODAY. HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...WHICH IS STILL 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.
LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP LOW TEMPS FAIRLY MILD IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
UNSEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES(WITH RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER SOME INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN COLORADO LOCATIONS) DURING THE MAJORITY OF
THE LONGER TERM AND THEN INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 8C AT TIMES FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL(ESPECIALLY EASTERN
SECTIONS) DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. LOCATIONS
FROM THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S INTO THE UPPER 70S
...WHICH IF REALIZED...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BREAKING SOME RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THEN...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW-GRADE POPS MAY BE NOTED AT TIMES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY) AND CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS BASICALLY
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING PREVAILS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COOLER AND POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT. STILL
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF IMPACT AS 06Z GFS40 SUGGESTS
THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
111 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.AVIATION...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE AREA LEAVING ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS KMIA AND KTMB. COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COULD STILL IGNITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A THICK CLOUD
SHIELD HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT AND THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SEEMS UNLIKELY.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE EAST
COAST SITES AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PREVAIL AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH ISOLATED IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. COVERED WITH MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY EXTENDING FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO THE FORT
LAUDERDALE AREA. MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. COMPARISON OF THIS MORNING 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTING SPS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT TODAY`S SOUNDING SHOWS A
STRONG LAPSE RATE OF 7 TO 8 C/KM BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. A POCKET
OF DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT AT THAT LEVEL. THIS COULD ENHANCE SOME
POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. IN
GENERAL, THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
40 TO 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS 40-50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY COULD TECHNICALLY INDUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SOLAR HEATING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FAST ENOUGH THAT WE
DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF GENERALIZED FLOODING. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
CAN SEE SOME BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON THE STREETS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ITS TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAT MODELS HAD BEEN
FORECASTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE, FAIRLY ON
TRACK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOOKING AT THE HRRR ANALYSIS, THERE IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE, ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THAT IS CAUSING THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH COLLIER, GLADES, AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS THEY
ARE MOVING ONSHORE, THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. SO, WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING FOR MIAMI, THERE WAS
STILL A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AROUND 900MB. THERE IS ANOTHER CAP AT
AROUND 600MB. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE CAPS, BUT NOT AS
DEFINED AS THE ACTUAL SOUNDING SHOWED. THESE SHOULD BE ERODING, AS
THE MODEL FORECAST, WITH THE LOW AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
ANOTHER LARGER CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE DAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED A JET OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
NOW, THEY ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE JET. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ARE SHOWING A 120KT JET AT 250MB MOVING INTO THE AREA NEAR
THE FT MYERS AREA AROUND 18Z, COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS COULD HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE NAM, GFS, AND THE HRRR ARE
SHOWING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 500J.
LAPSE RATES ONLY GO UP TO AROUND 6 C/KM. OVER ALL, NOT AN OPTIMAL
SETUP FOR CONVECTION, BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO, WITH WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING
LAYER OF 30 TO 35 KTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
THINKING ANYTHING SEVERE.
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT DOES SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS DO
TRY TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. IT DOES HINT THAT
THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE, IN BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS. THIS LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY PROGRESSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THE LOW ORIGINATING THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
THAT WILL COME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 4C
DOWN TO THE LAKE BY 00 SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY
MODERATED BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH QUIET THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BARRING A LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER HERE OR
THERE, MAINLY ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY , LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SETUP THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY MORNING A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONG AND WETTER THAN THE GFS, AND
HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, BUT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
BACKING OFF EACH NIGHT, SLOWLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS HAS MORE OR LESS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ACHANCE
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND LAKE WATERS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 71 59 72 / 20 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 60 72 61 71 / 30 20 10 10
MIAMI 60 73 60 72 / 30 20 10 10
NAPLES 54 72 53 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
316 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER
20S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. AS HIGH SINKS
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE EVENING ALONG
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SLOW TEMPERATURE
DROP SO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE LOOKING WARM AND JUST A FEW DEGREES UNDER AFTERNOON TEMPS.
ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. HIRES RUC AND HRRR SURFACE
TEMPS EVEN COLDER WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z WITH
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FRESH DEEP
SNOWPACK AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY BUT OFTEN THESE HIRES MODELS CAN
BE ON THE EXTREME SIDE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH
REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE TEENS LATER TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO STILL LIMIT REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE SOMEWHAT.
MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LIKELY
INTO THE 20S. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT LOWER
30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
FLATTER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH POLAR JET AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPS AND OVERALL FEEL WILL
LIKELY TO BE PLAGUED BY LOW STRATUS (ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST) AS
WAA ALOFT AND SNOW MELT HELPS LOCK IN MOISTURE WITHIN SHALLOW
INVERSION. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN APPEAR LOW THROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF
MORE FOCUSED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/DEEPER MOISTURE SETS UP NORTH OF THE
IWX CWA. HOWEVER...ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SHALLOW/MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT ICING FAR NE IN/FAR NW OH/LOWER MI INTO SUNDAY).
A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO FORCE A STRONGER FRONTAL
WAVE ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK
WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE (AGAIN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN
NORTH) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
NORTH TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA ENSUES
WITHIN PIVOTING DEFORMATION. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME
BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY POPS GIVEN LINGERING MODEL SPREAD AND
NORTHERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...COOLER/DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RENEWED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AT TERMINALS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KSBN FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS WHERE A BROKEN MVFR DECK JUST TO WEST OF AIRPORT
COULD DRIFT BACK EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING ENTIRELY. WILL HAVE A
BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL OHIO DURING
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
THROUGH MID EVENING THEN 5 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA WITH NW FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WITH LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN
COLORADO. INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.
H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING... THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SOME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL I AM EXPECTING
MINIMAL IMPACT AS TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WAA WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TOWARDS
THE CO/KS BORDER AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED WAA/TEMPS ALOFT...WE
COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
TODAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...WITH 70S FRIDAY AND NEAR 80F ON
SATURDAY. TD VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING UNDER
THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW CRITICAL FIRE CRITERIA (15 PERCENT). WITH GENERALLY WEAK
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND LIMITED WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
ALOFT...I AM NOT EXPECTING THE WIND/RH CROSSOVER NEEDED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT TUESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. BROAD RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A 700/500MB SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
REGION...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PART OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES
ROLL SOUTH FORMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. BY DOING THIS...MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMNANTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
TRI STATE REGION. WITH LIMITED QPF...WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RW/SW IN NE COLORADO INITIALLY AS SYSTEM WORKS OFF
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY SE ZONES SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE
TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. W/ LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECTING TEMPS TO RANGE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...AND NEAR 10-15 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAA DOES
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE...SO DO EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS.
LIGHT WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST THU FEB 5 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS.
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS FRIDAY FEB 6...
GOODLAND.....73 (2009)
MCCOOK.......75 (2009)
BURLINGTON...71 (2009)
HILL CITY....79 (2009)
COLBY........73 (1963)
TRIBUNE......71 (1999)
YUMA.........69 (1963)
CURRENT DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS SATURDAY FEB 7...
GOODLAND.....74 (1987)
MCCOOK.......72 (1996)
BURLINGTON...72 (1987)
HILL CITY....71 (1996)
COLBY........76 (2009)
TRIBUNE......75 (1943)
YUMA.........70 (1987)
CURRENT FEBRUARY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
245 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN IS IN PLACE...WITH STRONG FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING WIND
HIGHLITES WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY PUSHED INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN BILLINGS
WHERE A SOUTHERLY CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE HAS KEPT STRONGER WINDS
FROM MIXING DOWN AND THUS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AT 1PM. AS WITH
LAST NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE SOME WARMING THIS EVENING AS AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT MIXED TO A STRONGER AND MORE WESTERLY WIND SHOULD...ONCE
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG IN
THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE VICINITIES. CURRENTLY SEEING PERIODIC GUSTS
TO 58 MPH IN LIVINGSTON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS 70-80KT
700MB WINDS PUSH THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS THAT NORMALLY
SEE LITTLE WIND INCLUDING RED LODGE AN SHERIDAN. INCREASED WINDS
IN THESE LOCATIONS TO GET SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN
THE FORECAST. LATEST RUC SOUNDING FOR SHERIDAN SHOWS A PLUG OF 50
TO 60KT WINDS AT 900 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE SHERIDANS ELEVATION. ITS
POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD PUSH DOWN INTO SHERIDAN (AS
WELL AS RED LODGE) BUT IT MAY ALSO HANG UP IN THE FOOTHILLS JUST
ABOVE THE CITY ELEVATION. THESE MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE NOTORIOUSLY
TOUGH TO PREDICT AND TEND TO HAVE A HIGH FALSE ALARM RATE.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT NOT GOING TO THE FULL
POTENTIAL THE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED. EVENING SHIFT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND ISSUE HIGHLITES IF NECESSARY.
THOSE LIVING IN THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS WIND
POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS ON THEIR PROPERTY JUST IN CASE.
FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME STRONG
FOOTHILLS WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE SPREADING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH RECORD
TERRITORY IN THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. YET ANOTHER WIND
PRODUCING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING
STRONG WINDS GOING LIVINGSTON TO NYE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON
AS WELL AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE LOCATIONS TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
COMPLICATE DYNAMICS THAT WOULD NORMALLY POINT TO THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN THE BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON CORRIDOR.
THUS HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING WIND HIGHLITES FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL A
BIT CLOSER TO THE STRONG WINDS ARRIVING...BUT IF GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT WILL LIKELY NEED THEM.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE GENERATED
STRONG WINDS SETTLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND PUSHING WELL OUT
INTO THE PLAINS AS VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO WORK DOWN AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT FRONT JET DYNAMICS COMBINE TO ADD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD VERY CLOSELY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
SET THE TABLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...A
GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE MOUNTAINS (WEST FACING SLOPES) AND
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS WITH ADDITIONAL
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
IN SUMMARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO BE WIND AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM
SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ALONG
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. IF YOU LIVE NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS BE AWARE
OF THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE TROF OFF THE
PAC COAST AND COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM
SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH WOULD CAUSE
STRONGER MIXING AND WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW NO SUCH FEATURE ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BUT WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS A
BIT ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT MIXING.
PAC TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ALLOWING FOR HEIGHT FALLS AND
A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. OUR WESTERN MTNS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW HERE
AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS.
THOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY WILLS SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS CANADIAN
SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN MT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TIMING OF THIS COOLING TREND...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ITS MAGNITUDE.
THE GFS SHOWS A COLD 1050+ MB HIGH SLIDING INTO ND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH
AND THUS NOT NEARLY AS COLD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY
LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TEMPS TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...SO MUST
STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS THAT OF COOLING SO
HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS DOWN SOME ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
EAST HALF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ACTUALLY SHOULD START
SEEING A WARMING TREND AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE WEST. AS FOR POPS...NOT SEEING ANYTHING DYNAMIC BUT ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. SHOULD SEE DRYING
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BROKEN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL GUST FROM 40-55
KTS AT KLVM AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/060 044/062 038/058 035/054 037/050 026/040 027/046
00/N 01/N 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B
LVM 043/061 052/059 042/055 035/052 037/050 025/041 028/051
00/N 12/W 12/W 12/W 32/W 21/B 11/B
HDN 033/056 037/058 033/056 029/054 032/050 022/041 023/043
00/B 01/B 11/N 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/B
MLS 030/053 038/056 034/054 030/050 031/044 019/036 017/039
00/B 02/W 21/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 01/B
4BQ 034/061 041/060 035/058 032/057 034/050 021/038 021/045
00/B 02/W 11/B 00/U 22/W 21/B 11/B
BHK 030/054 038/056 034/052 027/048 029/043 018/032 013/037
00/B 02/W 21/B 01/U 22/W 11/B 00/B
SHR 032/060 038/059 033/057 028/055 028/050 022/041 020/045
00/B 01/N 11/B 00/B 22/W 31/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
251 PM PST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TWO MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS ARE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN SISKYOU COUNTY
AND MOUNT SHASTA REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COAST FROM
CAPE BLANCO TOWARDS GOLD BEACH, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED
AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OF BIGGER CONCERN COULD BE ON
SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NEAR
130W WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST,
HEADLANDS AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS. BELOW, WE`LL ADDRESS THE
RAIN AND WIND IMPACT.
RAIN: MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTH
COAST, COAST RANGE, WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THE HARDEST.
THE WPC QPF FORECAST IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC,
BUT THEY SHOW HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW, THUS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION RATES. FORECASTED RAIN TOTAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE AS FOLLOWS: 5-8 INCHES FOR THE COAST, COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WITH PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT TOTALS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN, ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY BUT TOTALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT WITH 1.50 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND 0.25 TO AN INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH JUST NEAR CHILOQUIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN/SOUTH SISKIYOU COUNTY. FLOOD CONCERNS STILL
EXIST, THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN
SCARS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. DETAILS FOR ALL OF THE PRODUCTS
CAN BE FOUND AT FFAMFR. WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OT FRIDAY
IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
OF NOTE, THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR 1KM REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN
INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE AND IT SUGGEST THE
MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WILL COME IN TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT EAST WITH
OFF/ON RAIN BEHIND IT LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN
QPF AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. -PETRUCELLI
.WIND...THE SHASTA VALLEY IS ALREADY SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND OF
SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY
LIKELY TO SEE SUSTAINED 40 TO 50 MPH NEAR WEED. BY FRIDAY MORNING
EVEN THE YREKA AREA COULD SEE SUSTAINED WIND 35 TO 45 MPH.
THE LATEST SATELLITE WIND READING SHOWS 45 MPH WINDS NEAR CAPE
BLANCO. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATION NEAR THE CAPE. WITH
BUOY 15 OFF PORT ORFORD EXPERIENCING WIND GUST TO 55 MPH..EXPECT
COASTAL JET TO BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVERNIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL
BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF COOS BAY THROUGH CAPE BLANCO INTO PORT ORFORD
AND GOLD BEACH. WINDS SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 70
MPH. TRAFFIC ALONG HWY 140 COULD BE AFFECTED ESPECIALLY DURING THE
STRETCH OF THE HIGHWAY THAT IS EXPOSED. THIS WILL BE MAINLY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONG WINDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WE EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR MEDFORD
AIRPORT SHOWS WE COULD SEE WIND GUST TO 45 MPH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS GUST SPEED IS LOWER THAN THE
CUSTOMARY HIGH WIND CRITERIA..BECAUSE THE GUST IS EXPECTED IN THE
POPULATED AREA WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING TO ERROR ON THE
SAFE SIDE. /FB
A DRYING TREND IS STILL IN THE WORKS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET, BUT THERE
WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...WIND SPEED SHEAR,
TURBULENCE AND MVFR CIGS WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEED SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AT ALL 4 TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND WHILE SOME
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT ROSEGURG MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS AT TIMES. A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS WILL CAUSE A MAJOR LONG-
DURATION WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PEAKING ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST.
ADDITIONALLY...MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED...AS STRONG
SOUTH FLOW IMPACTS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TERRAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PST THURSDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2015...A SERIES OF
STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL BE 16 TO 24 FEET. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LONG DURATION AND
FETCH OF THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY
STEEP AND DANGEROUS SHORT PERIOD SEAS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ030-031-624-625.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021>024-028-615-616-618-619.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026-617-622.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-028-617.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ026-620>622.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ620-621.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ623.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080>083-085-280>282-284-285.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ084-284.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ080-280.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-280.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
306 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND GENERALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER AND
THROUGH THE RIDGE. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...COOLEST
GENERALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
ANY SNOW COVERED AREAS ON THE PLAINS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...THOUGH STARTING TO PICK UP OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE THIS WEEK AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS...INCLUDING
RAPID CITY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL AS HIGHER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE RAP AIRPORT
RECORD HIGH IS 62...WHILE DOWNTOWN RAP IS 66. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BREEZY OVER NORTHEAST WY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAVORED AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW/LOW TROUGH PUSHES
ONSHORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR -SHRASN TUESDAY. GUIDANCE THEN
DIVERGES WITH DISPOSITION OF ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...GFS COLDEST...ECMWF WARMEST. HAVE SPLIT FORECAST DOWN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE QUESTION AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING. GIVEN THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ALREADY INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
AS OF 21Z...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR OUT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD HANG IN PAST MIDNIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. EVEN
IF THERE IS A TEMPORARY CLEARING...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY THEN
REFORM BEFORE SUNRISE...SO HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOME FOG
MAY ALSO FORM AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. FOR
NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION HAS NEARLY SHUT OFF
AND NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE DEW POINTS AND THE CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INDICATED LOWS NEAR OR ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES. THE OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM IF AREAS TOTALLY CLEAR
OUT.
AFTER TOMORROW MORNING...WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND START THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT SOME LOWER
80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE BOWIE-BRECKENRIDGE AREAS AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE ATHENS-TEMPLE AREA AROUND
SUNSET. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY U.S. AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIFFERENTLY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 254 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/
18Z NAM NOW FALLING IN LINE WITH THE RAP AND SHOWS MOISTURE SCATTERING
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS THEN RE-FORM BEFORE SUNRISE. DO
NOT HAVE STRONG CONCERNS ABOUT FZDZ FRIDAY MORNING BECAUSE THIS
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE MUCH THINNER THAN THIS MORNING.
WILL ADD A BKN015 LAYER FOR THE SUNRISE HOURS. AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE...THIS LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. 84
/PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/ 1137 AM.
NORTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK
TO LIGHT SOUTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA WE EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE 020 THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE THIS EVENING.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE IS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
GROUND FOG. WE DID NOT ADD ANY TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASES. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 30 63 44 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 31 63 42 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 31 59 40 72 51 / 5 5 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 29 63 42 76 50 / 5 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 29 60 42 75 51 / 5 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 31 62 44 76 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 31 60 43 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 32 61 43 75 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 36 62 41 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 29 68 42 80 49 / 5 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z NAM NOW FALLING IN LINE WITH THE RAP AND SHOWS MOISTURE SCATTERING
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS THEN RE-FORM BEFORE SUNRISE. DO
NOT HAVE STRONG CONCERNS ABOUT FZDZ FRIDAY MORNING BECAUSE THIS
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE MUCH THINNER THAN THIS MORNING.
WILL ADD A BKN015 LAYER FOR THE SUNRISE HOURS. AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE...THIS LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. 84
/PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/ 1137 AM.
NORTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK
TO LIGHT SOUTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA WE EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE 020 THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE THIS EVENING.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE IS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
GROUND FOG. WE DID NOT ADD ANY TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASES. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
WITH THE EXPECTED OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE LOWERED TODAY/S HIGHS BY
A CATEGORY OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED
THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 11 AM FOR THE
METROPLEX EAST THROUGH TERRELL AND SOUTH TO NEAR ATHENS...CORSICANA
AND MERIDIAN.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015/
...COLD TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FALLING THROUGH THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S AROUND
GRAHAM AND BOWIE. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES...WITH
DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED IN SOME AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE DFW METROPLEX SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL DRYING IS
BRINGING AN END TO THE DRIZZLE JUST BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET DOWN
TO FREEZING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING FORT WORTH...EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND SHORT
DURATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SUGGEST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH. EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS. SUNNY
SKIES AND A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND...WITH READINGS NEAR 70 POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ZONES. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SOME READINGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING A MINOR COOLDOWN STARTING MONDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATES THAT A
HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN...ALSO KNOWN AS A REX BLOCK...WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN CHANCES DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING CUTOFF LOW. THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW MOVES...WITH A
TRACK FROM COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND STALL OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS POSITION WOULD LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TO OUR PART OF TEXAS LATER NEXT
WEEK...AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD FAVOR LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 09/GP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 30 63 44 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 31 63 42 76 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 31 59 40 72 51 / 5 5 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 29 63 42 76 50 / 5 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 29 60 42 75 51 / 5 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 31 62 44 76 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 31 60 43 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 33 61 43 75 53 / 5 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 36 62 41 75 52 / 5 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 68 42 80 49 / 5 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/