Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/04/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG OVER SOME AREAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN
LOWER DESERTS COMMUNITIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ONLY MINOR CIRRUS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. IN FACT...TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AREA RUNNING SIMILARLY
TO 24 HOURS AGO AT LESS URBAN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. OF NOTE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
UNDERINITIALIZED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...BUT
THEY ALSO DEPICT MORE COOLING THAN HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES REPORTED IN THE METARS HAVE BEEN
7-8 MILES. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...LOW VISIBILITIES HAD ALREADY
BEGUN. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
THE SAME AREA AS YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STARTING WITH VISIBILITIES THAT
ARE TOO LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN OUR
AREA...MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE PINAL COUNTY.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS ALSO TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND A HIGH LATITUDE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING REGIONS IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A
SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AND ACCORDINGLY A SLOW WARMING
TREND. SYSTEMS BEING EJECTED FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LATE IN THE WEEK...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH A
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE BEFORE IT REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME...THICKEST IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. MADE SOME SUBTLE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS TEMP FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. HOWEVER...80 DEGREE MAX TEMPS STILL IN SIGHT ON SOME OF THE
LOWER DESERTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PATCHY FOG IS FORMING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN OUTSKIRTS OF TOWN AS OF
11Z...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/DENSITY NOWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS YESTERDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE KIWA WOULD BE THE HARDEST HIT AND I WILL
TAKE VSBYS DOWN TO IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND DAYBREAK. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN KIWA VSBY FORECAST...WILL NEED TO ASSESS HOW BAD FOG
IS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE AT KPHX/KSDL...LOCAL WEBCAMS ONLY
SHOWING A LIGHT HAZE AROUND 6SM. MEANWHILE THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...CERTAINLY HELPING TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP IN TANDEM WITH A BRIEF DROP IN
VSBYS TO 3-4SM AROUND 13Z...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS THINKING WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT EAST WINDS AT 5KTS OR
LESS AT KPHX THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE THE TYPICAL WESTERLY SHIFT
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THOUGH WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES AS
THE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. DESPITE THIS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR AZZ028.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
405 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG OVER SOME AREAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN
LOWER DESERTS COMMUNITIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ONLY MINOR CIRRUS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. IN FACT...TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AREA RUNNING SIMILARLY
TO 24 HOURS AGO AT LESS URBAN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. OF NOTE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
UNDERINITIALIZED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...BUT
THEY ALSO DEPICT MORE COOLING THAN HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES REPORTED IN THE METARS HAVE BEEN
7-8 MILES. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...LOW VISIBILITIES HAD ALREADY
BEGUN. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
THE SAME AREA AS YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STARTING WITH VISIBILITIES THAT
ARE TOO LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN OUR
AREA...MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE PINAL COUNTY.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS ALSO TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND A HIGH LATITUDE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING REGIONS IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A
SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AND ACCORDINGLY A SLOW WARMING
TREND. SYSTEMS BEING EJECTED FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LATE IN THE WEEK...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH A
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE BEFORE IT REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME...THICKEST IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. MADE SOME SUBTLE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS TEMP FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. HOWEVER...80 DEGREE MAX TEMPS STILL IN SIGHT ON SOME OF THE
LOWER DESERTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PATCHY FOG IS FORMING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN OUTSKIRTS OF TOWN AS OF
11Z...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/DENSITY NOWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS YESTERDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE KIWA WOULD BE THE HARDEST HIT AND I WILL
TAKE VSBYS DOWN TO IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND DAYBREAK. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN KIWA VSBY FORECAST...WILL NEED TO ASSESS HOW BAD FOG
IS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE AT KPHX/KSDL...LOCAL WEBCAMS ONLY
SHOWING A LIGHT HAZE AROUND 6SM. MEANWHILE THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...CERTAINLY HELPING TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP IN TANDEM WITH A BRIEF DROP IN
VSBYS TO 3-4SM AROUND 13Z...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS THINKING WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT EAST WINDS AT 5KTS OR
LESS AT KPHX THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE THE TYPICAL WESTERLY SHIFT
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THOUGH WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES AS
THE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. DESPITE THIS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR AZZ028.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NWS PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG OVER SOME AREAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN
LOWER DESERTS COMMUNITIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ONLY MINOR CIRRUS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. IN FACT...TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AREA RUNNING SIMILARLY
TO 24 HOURS AGO AT LESS URBAN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. OF NOTE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
UNDERINITIALIZED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...BUT
THEY ALSO DEPICT MORE COOLING THAN HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES REPORTED IN THE METARS HAVE BEEN
7-8 MILES. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...LOW VISIBILITIES HAD ALREADY
BEGUN. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
THE SAME AREA AS YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STARTING WITH VISIBILITIES THAT
ARE TOO LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN OUR
AREA...MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE PINAL COUNTY.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS ALSO TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND A HIGH LATITUDE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING REGIONS IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A
SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AND ACCORDINGLY A SLOW WARMING
TREND. SYSTEMS BEING EJECTED FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LATE IN THE WEEK...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH A
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE BEFORE IT REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME...THICKEST IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. MADE SOME SUBTLE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS TEMP FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. HOWEVER...80 DEGREE MAX TEMPS STILL IN SIGHT ON SOME OF THE
LOWER DESERTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. SFC WINDS HAVE
ALREADY TURNED E/SE AT KPHX (AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE) AND
WILL MAINTAIN THESE HEADINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 3-5KT OR
LESS.
MONDAY MORNING: POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME FOG AROUND PHOENIX
TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST FAR MORE LIMITED COVERAGE...AND DENSE FOG STAYING
SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA. STILL MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY IN SE MARICOPA COUNTY (INCLUDING KPHX)...WITH FAR LESS
CONFIDENCE OF LOWER CATEGORIES. MOST LIKELY TIMING WOULD BE IN THE
11Z-15Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...EAST WINDS 3-6KT WILL PREVAIL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS UP TO 12KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A 1500-2000FT LAYER.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THOUGH WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES AS
THE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. DESPITE THIS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG OVER SOME AREAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN
LOWER DESERTS COMMUNITIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ONLY MINOR CIRRUS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. IN FACT...TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AREA RUNNING SIMILARLY
TO 24 HOURS AGO AT LESS URBAN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. OF NOTE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
UNDERINITIALIZED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...BUT
THEY ALSO DEPICT MORE COOLING THAN HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES REPORTED IN THE METARS HAVE BEEN
7-8 MILES. LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...LOW VISIBILITIES HAD ALREADY
BEGUN. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY
THE SAME AREA AS YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STARTING WITH VISIBILITIES THAT
ARE TOO LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN OUR
AREA...MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE PINAL COUNTY.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS ALSO TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND A HIGH LATITUDE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHING REGIONS IS A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A
SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AND ACCORDINGLY A SLOW WARMING
TREND. SYSTEMS BEING EJECTED FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LATE IN THE WEEK...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH A
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE BEFORE IT REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME...THICKEST IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. MADE SOME SUBTLE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS TEMP FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. HOWEVER...80 DEGREE MAX TEMPS STILL IN SIGHT ON SOME OF THE
LOWER DESERTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SHORT TERM: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. SFC WINDS HAVE
ALREADY TURNED E/SE AT KPHX (AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE) AND
WILL MAINTAIN THESE HEADINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 3-5KT OR
LESS.
MONDAY MORNING: POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME FOG AROUND PHOENIX
TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST FAR MORE LIMITED COVERAGE...AND DENSE FOG STAYING
SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA. STILL MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY IN SE MARICOPA COUNTY (INCLUDING KPHX)...WITH FAR LESS
CONFIDENCE OF LOWER CATEGORIES. MOST LIKELY TIMING WOULD BE IN THE
11Z-15Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...EAST WINDS 3-6KT WILL PREVAIL INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS UP TO 12KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A 1500-2000FT LAYER.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THOUGH WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES AS
THE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR. DESPITE THIS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1042 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
...WAVES OF SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NICE REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...
NEXT SHORTWAVE/ASSOC UPPER JET IS MOVING ACROSS NRN CO EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS REPORTED AT MTN TOP LEVEL AND
ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH RANGE...SANGRES...AND
THE PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE. PEAK GUST SO FAR WAS 62 KTS
AT 7BM (COTTONWOOD PASS)...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS BEFORE MORNING. THESE
STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOCALIZED...AS 7BM HAS SINCE
DROPPED BACK TO 45 KTS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY NONE-THE-LESS.
HAVE BOOSTED WIND GUSTS IN MORNING GRIDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE SNOW CONTINUE THIS MORNING ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER MTS COULD
PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WILL HANG IN EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS. STARTING TO SEE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE THOUGH...AND
LATEST HRRR SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ERODING EAST OF KCOS AROUND 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL WAVE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE LEE OF THE SE
MTS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE. SNOW WILL
ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROF SHOULD BRING REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHS TODAY BACK INTO THE 50S. FAVORED
AREAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE SE MTS WILL SEE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE SE MTS. NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE
SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE SOME PASSING WAVE CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY.
-KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ARE CONTINUING TO REMAIN
IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT PROJECTING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES) AND
BASICALLY MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY) FROM
TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A NORTHWESTERLY TO UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
ONE TO FIVE INCH RANGE DURING ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD...IS ANTICIPATED
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH RECENT 06Z/2ND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE STARTED TO TREND LOWER WITH POTENTIAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA
AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS FOR LATER SNOW TRENDS AND
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
ELSEWHERE. AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
REPLACED BY A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 00Z THURSDAY) FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE(GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWFA)...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE COMBINATION OF VARYING DEGREES OF UPPER RIDGING AND
EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW GENERALLY
DRY AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE COOLEST READING OCCUR WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AT KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PERIODS OF STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MOST HIGHER PEAKS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
OF 30-40 KTS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
533 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
...WAVES OF SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NICE REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...
NEXT SHORTWAVE/ASSOC UPPER JET IS MOVING ACROSS NRN CO EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS REPORTED AT MTN TOP LEVEL AND
ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH RANGE...SANGRES...AND
THE PIKES PEAK AND THE RAMPART RANGE. PEAK GUST SO FAR WAS 62 KTS
AT 7BM...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS BEFORE MORNING. THESE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LOCALIZED...AS 7BM HAS SINCE DROPPED BACK TO 45 KTS...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY NONE-THE-LESS. HAVE BOOSTED WIND GUSTS IN MORNING
GRIDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW CONTINUE THIS MORNING ASSOC
WITH THIS WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST
FLOW. HIGHER MTS COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WILL HANG IN EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS. STARTING TO SEE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE THOUGH...AND
LATEST HRRR SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ERODING EAST OF KCOS AROUND 13Z.
OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL WAVE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE LEE OF THE SE
MTS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE. SNOW WILL
ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROF SHOULD BRING REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHS TODAY BACK INTO THE 50S. FAVORED
AREAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE SE MTS WILL SEE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...LEE TROFFING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE SE MTS. NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE
SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE SOME PASSING WAVE CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY.
-KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ARE CONTINUING TO REMAIN
IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT PROJECTING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES) AND
BASICALLY MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY) FROM
TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A NORTHWESTERLY TO UPPER
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT.
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
ONE TO FIVE INCH RANGE DURING ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD...IS ANTICIPATED
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH RECENT 06Z/2ND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE STARTED TO TREND LOWER WITH POTENTIAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REAL-TIME DATA
AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS FOR LATER SNOW TRENDS AND
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
ELSEWHERE. AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
REPLACED BY A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 00Z THURSDAY) FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE(GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWFA)...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE COMBINATION OF VARYING DEGREES OF UPPER RIDGING AND
EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW GENERALLY
DRY AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM WILL BE NOTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE COOLEST READING OCCUR WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WILL SEE MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 13-14Z THIS MORNING DUE TO SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS BLOWING UP THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WINDS UNDER 15
KTS...WHILE MTN TOP WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 KTS BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 30-40 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL MTS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
DUE TO -SN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KALS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
841 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY, PULLING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR EAST ALONG THIS FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO START WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TO SHUT OFF SOMETIME BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AS THICK MID CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY PA AND NJ. THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WAA SNOW NOW ENTERING SW WISCONSIN FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
SHOULD RACE EAST ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 60KT 700MB JET MODELED INTO
CENTRAL PA BY 12Z WED. ATTENDANT WITH THIS 700MB SPEED MAX IS A MODELED
WSW 850 JET CORE THAT IS MODELED TO BE ASTRIDE THE PA/MD BORDER BY
12Z WED. QUALITATIVELY THE 250 JET DIDN`T SHOW MUCH CONTRIBUTION
TO THE LIFT.
WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO MEASURE .1 TO .5 INCHES ALONG AND NW
OF I80 BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES
POSSIBLY DOWN TO KPNE. THIS IS CLOSE TO MULTI MODEL SUPPORT FOR NE
PA AND NW NJ. THE NSSL WRF WAS FURTHER SOUTH...ALMOST TO PHL BY
MORNING AND WE SEE THE CONSERVATIVE RAP IMPLYING FLURRIES DOWN TO
KABE AND KRDG.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WERE LOWERED 3 OR 4 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FCST.
LIGHT WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WAA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY 14-15Z AND THEN
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS FORECAST IS 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/3 GFS/NAM MOS. THE 12Z
ECMWF 2M TEMPS HAVE COME UP 3 DEGREES FROM THE 00Z/3 CYCLE, SO WE
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD FIT FOR THE MAX TEMPS TOMORROW (AVERAGE OR A
BIT ABOVE), PROVIDED PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS MIDDAY. AM A LITTLE
CAUTIOUS TO EXPRESS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS MAX TEMP FORECAST. A
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE IS MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MOVING SNOW
ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THEY ALL BEGIN TO SHRINK THE
SNOW SHIELD SOME AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DEEPENS
AND DIVES MORE ACROSS OUR AREA, DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING A LOW
OFF THE COAST. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE, THE SNOW OVER THE
LAND MAY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND SNOW FOCUSES MORE OFFSHORE AND TO
OUR NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BIG SNOW
PRODUCER, MOSTLY UNDER AN INCH EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY START SOONER AND SNOW
LONGER. WE EXPECT ANY SNOW TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP
IN COLD AIR. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST AND MOVES
NORTHWEST, WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS, LOW WIND CHILLS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN, WITH MOST PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALONG WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA, AS A SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MOSTLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THIS LOW
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
FOCUSING MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND IF THE FRONT
CAN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY, PTYPES COULD BE VARIABLE. NORTH OF
THE LOW/FRONT, PTYPES SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW; SOUTH MAY START AS SNOW,
THEN MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN, BEFORE ENDING AS SNOW. IN BETWEEN COULD
START AS SNOW, THEN MIX FOR A PERIOD, THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW.
IF THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALL
SNOW BY THAT TIME, BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AS THE LOW PULLS
TO OUR NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 5000 FT IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND. BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
VCNTY KMPO IN THAT 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE DOWN
TO KPNE BUT NOT YET CONFIDENTLY FCST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS BRIEFLY NEAR 5000 FT EARLY IN THE DAY RISING
TO SCT-BKN AOA 10000 FT MIDDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 15
TO POSSIBLY 20 KT DURING THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON
ANY SNOW WEDNESDAY OR NON VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN DIMINISHING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELED AROUND 1839Z AND NEW SCA ISSUED FOR WED AFTN/EVE.
IT LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL SCA AT THAT TIME WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE
RATES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT EARLY, DIMINISHING TO SUB- SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY IN THE DAY CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS; GALE WATCH ISSUED. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/PO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTS ISSUANCE TIME
NWS MELBOURNE FL
910 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF TO THE FL BIG BEND AND
JACKSONVILLE IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE AREA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED WELL OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND ARE WELL WITHIN THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY...POISED TO MIX TO THE SFC BY MID MORNING. MARGINAL
SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SB INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON...ESP
ACROSS THE S AREAS AND A SMALL THUNDER CHC REMAINS WARRANTED ALONG
WITH THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL ZONES.
(PREVIOUS DISC)
THE SOUTH HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO WARM UP BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
MENTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS...BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED WIND PROFILES POINT MORE TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY SINCE CANAVERAL PROFILERS
AND FORECAST 925 MB WINDS POINT TO GUST CAPABILITY TO AROUND 30
MPH.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY ABOUT 00Z SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY POPS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS TO PUSH
MOST CLOUDINESS OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WEAKLY
ONSHORE (NNE) LATE. MAV/MET GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOWER 50S ALONG THE FAR
SOUTH COAST. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH
INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
SHORTLY AT ALL SITES. PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
STARTED TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. TIMING OF ACTIVITY
AFFECTING NRN AND EVENTUALLY ALL SITES LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST OF THE
VIS AND CIG OBSTRUCTIONS DURING PCPN ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS PSBL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE BAND REACHING NORTHERN SITES AROUND 11 AM
TO NOON AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN SITES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS QUICKLY UNFOLDING NEAR AND OFFSHORE FOR SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS AND WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WL OCCUR AND THE CURRENT HAZARDS LOOK GOOD LEADING UP THROUGH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. BY LATE TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL HAVE
VEERED TO NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHED TO 15 KNOTS BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
JP/TES
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
410 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF TO THE FL BIG BEND AND
JACKSONVILLE IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE AREA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED WELL OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND ARE WELL WITHIN THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY...POISED TO MIX TO THE SFC BY MID MORNING. MARGINAL
SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SB INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON...ESP
ACROSS THE S AREAS AND A SMALL THUNDER CHC REMAINS WARRANTED ALONG
WITH THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL ZONES.
(PREVIOUS DISC)
THE SOUTH HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO WARM UP BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
MENTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS...BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED WIND PROFILES POINT MORE TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY SINCE CANAVERAL PROFILERS
AND FORECAST 925 MB WINDS POINT TO GUST CAPABILITY TO AROUND 30
MPH.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY ABOUT 00Z SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY POPS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS TO PUSH
MOST CLOUDINESS OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WEAKLY
ONSHORE (NNE) LATE. MAV/MET GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOWER 50S ALONG THE FAR
SOUTH COAST. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH
INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
SHORTLY AT ALL SITES. PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
STARTED TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. TIMING OF ACTIVITY
AFFECTING NRN AND EVENTUALLY ALL SITES LOOKS ON TRACK. MOST OF THE
VIS AND CIG OBSTRUCTIONS DURING PCPN ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS PSBL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE BAND REACHING NORTHERN SITES AROUND 11 AM
TO NOON AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN SITES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS QUICKLY UNFOLDING NEAR AND OFFSHORE FOR SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS AND WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WL OCCUR AND THE CURRENT HAZARDS LOOK GOOD LEADING UP THROUGH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. BY LATE TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL HAVE
VEERED TO NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHED TO 15 KNOTS BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
JP/TES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY BE DRY BUT THE MODELS SHOW PRE FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. LATEST
MOS POPS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE
KEPT LIKELY VALUES IN THE NORTH AND CHANCE VALUES IN THE SOUTH.
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE
VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG. THE SOUTH HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO WARM UP
BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. HAVE KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH MENTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS...BUT
THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WIND PROFILES POINT MORE TO LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS.
WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY SINCE CANAVERAL PROFILERS
AND FORECAST 925 MB WINDS POINT TO GUST CAPABILITY TO AROUND 30
MPH.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY ABOUT 00Z SO WILL NOT
CARRY ANY POPS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS TO PUSH
MOST CLOUDINESS OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WEAKLY
ONSHORE (NNE) LATE. MAV/MET GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOWER 50S ALONG THE FAR
SOUTH COAST. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH
INTERIOR.
EXTENDED...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY FINE AGREEMENT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 2-7 TIME FRAME. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES OF NOTE
ARE SUBTLE TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES W/R/T THE LOW PRES WAVE
SLIDING EWD ACROSS THE GOMEX/FL IN THE LATE WED THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.
TUE-THU...SRN STREAM H50 LOW OVER OLD MEX WILL OPEN UP AND SLIDE
EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE FEATURE WILL DAMPEN/SHEAR OUT WED NIGHT/THU WHILE
IT CROSSES THE LONG OF FL EARLY THU (CENTERED AROUND 12Z)...COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC TROUGH.
NRLY SFC FLOW TUE AM VEER NE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
THE LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE SRN CONUS EXPANDS EWD. SFC LOW PRES
WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN GOMEX TUE NIGHT AND THEN SLIDES
E-ENE INTO THE ERN GOMEX BY LATE WED NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE
NRN-CTRL PENINSULA THU MORNING...DRAGGING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH ECFL THU AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. BEST RAIN CHANCES
ATTM CENTERED AROUND 06Z-18Z THU (LATE WED NIGHT THRU THU MORNING).
CURRENT GRIDS SHOW SCT POPS LATE TRENDING HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH
GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS OF POSN OF NWD LIFTING WARM FRONT/SFC WAVE
AND ASCD BEST MOISTURE FIELDS. LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS THU AS FRONT
SLIDES RAPIDLY SWD BEHIND THE LOW PRES WAVE.
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TUE...NEAR CLIMO ON WED (WELL ABOVE
WED NIGHT IN INCREASING SRLY PRE-FRONTAL WIND FLOW)...TRENDING BACK
TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT.
FRI-SUN...VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS FL FRI...WITH
NW MID LEVEL FLOW DRIVING A SECONDARY NRLY SURGE AS COOL HIGH PRES
PUSHES SWD INTO THE STATE. MAXES IN THE 60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TO L50S...BUT LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS POST FRONTAL NRLY WINDS VEER QUICKLY NE (A
RECURRING THEME THIS DRY SEASON). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS NRN
FL SAT AND THEN EXPANDS/SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ATLC BY SUN...LEADING TO
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
FRONTAL APPROACH OR PASSAGE AROUND NEXT MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASED LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NECESSITATED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MENTION THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z AT SITES EXCEPT FOR KFPR-KSUA.
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
ALL SITES. PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO
TAKE SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE BAND
REACHING NORTHERN SITES AROUND NOON AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN SITES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN NEXT SET OF TAFS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION AND HRRR MODEL.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL
EXIST...TODAY ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE WATERS AND THEN ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE...MAINLY TO INDICATE ONE FOR WINDS ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AS SEAS ARE FORECAST BELOW 7 FEET THERE.
BY LATE TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL HAVE VEERED TO NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISHED TO 15 KNOTS BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...
ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
TUE-FRI...SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
MODERATE NRLY BREEZE VEERS TO EAST AND THEN SE-SE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
SW THU MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NRLY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH AN
EVEN STRONGER SURGE OF N TO NNE WINDS LATE THU NIGHT-FRI. WITH THE
MODELS IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR SCA
CONDS TO DEVELOP...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS OUT AT DAYS 4-5.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 42 63 48 / 60 0 10 10
MCO 74 44 67 50 / 60 0 10 10
MLB 77 46 68 53 / 50 10 10 10
VRB 82 48 70 54 / 50 10 10 10
LEE 72 41 65 49 / 70 0 10 10
SFB 73 41 66 48 / 60 0 10 10
ORL 72 44 66 51 / 60 0 10 10
FPR 82 48 71 53 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
LIGHT SNOW BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING LOW WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WARM UP BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER BUT DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. FURTHER OUT...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
RADAR MOSAIC AT 10 AM SHOWS SCATTERED FLURRIES AND A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE NOT DOING A GREAT JOB RESOLVING THESE PROBABLY DUE
TO THEIR RELATIVELY LOCAL NATURE. THUS EVEN THOUGH HRRR AND RAP
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...WIND DIRECTIONS
AND TRENDS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO KEPT
POPS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON ALIGNED WITH POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT BAND
MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EXITING THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...THUS RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH FRONT WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...WILL GO WITH ALL
SNOW FORECAST DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...CONCERNED WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CREATING MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
DEFINITELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BEARS DOWN OVER THE REGION. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN IT WILL BECOME DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY THE SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND RAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THIS FREQUENTLY USED BOUNDARY. SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE ALL COUNTIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE SEEMED VERY REASONABLE AND
CLOSE TO MOS SO DID NOT NEED TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ARE STILL
IMPACTING A FEW OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY
COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. (AROUND 20-22Z) THESE
AREAS ARE CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS AND IN SOME CASES VISIBILITIES OF
5SM. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND OVERCAST
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST GUSTS HAVE ABATED...SAVE FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS SUCH AS KIND. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST 5
TO 8 KNOTS TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS FURTHER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1257 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
LIGHT SNOW BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING LOW WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WARM UP BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER BUT DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. FURTHER OUT...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
RADAR MOSAIC AT 10 AM SHOWS SCATTERED FLURRIES AND A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE NOT DOING A GREAT JOB RESOLVING THESE PROBABLY DUE
TO THEIR RELATIVELY LOCAL NATURE. THUS EVEN THOUGH HRRR AND RAP
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...WIND DIRECTIONS
AND TRENDS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO KEPT
POPS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON ALIGNED WITH POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT BAND
MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EXITING THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...THUS RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH FRONT WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...WILL GO WITH ALL
SNOW FORECAST DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...CONCERNED WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CREATING MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
DEFINITELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER IOWA THURSDAY MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT WILL
BECOME DRY AND WARMER BY SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS OUR REGION.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO OUR REGION
OVER THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW WHICH
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE 00Z
EURO PULLS MORE COLD AIR INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BY SUNDAY
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW NORTH HALF BY SUNDAY. IN THE SOUTH...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SHAVED A FEW DEGREES NORTH HALF SUNDAY BASED ON THE
COLDER TREND OF THE EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ARE STILL
IMPACTING A FEW OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY
COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. (AROUND 20-22Z) THESE
AREAS ARE CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS AND IN SOME CASES VISIBILITIES OF
5SM. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND OVERCAST
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST GUSTS HAVE ABATED...SAVE FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS SUCH AS KIND. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST 5
TO 8 KNOTS TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS FURTHER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
LIGHT SNOW BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING LOW WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A WARM UP BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER BUT DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. FURTHER OUT...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
RADAR MOSAIC AT 10 AM SHOWS SCATTERED FLURRIES AND A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE NOT DOING A GREAT JOB RESOLVING THESE PROBABLY DUE
TO THEIR RELATIVELY LOCAL NATURE. THUS EVEN THOUGH HRRR AND RAP
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...WIND DIRECTIONS
AND TRENDS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO KEPT
POPS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON ALIGNED WITH POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT BAND
MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EXITING THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRST...STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...THUS RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH FRONT WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...WILL GO WITH ALL
SNOW FORECAST DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...CONCERNED WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CREATING MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
DEFINITELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY AND COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER IOWA THURSDAY MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS KEEP US UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT WILL
BECOME DRY AND WARMER BY SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS OUR REGION.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO OUR REGION
OVER THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW WHICH
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE 00Z
EURO PULLS MORE COLD AIR INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BY SUNDAY
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW NORTH HALF BY SUNDAY. IN THE SOUTH...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SHAVED A FEW DEGREES NORTH HALF SUNDAY BASED ON THE
COLDER TREND OF THE EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS. THEN VFR REST OF THE PERIOD.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS BUILDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RADAR AND
WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATED SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAY CONTINUE TO MIDDAY IN SOME AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO 3 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING AND THEN
LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR LATE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN BY EVENING WITH MID
CLOUDS SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT.
A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8
KNOTS TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
833 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 832 PM...
ISSUED AT 434 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO REFINE POPS TO ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
BEFORE ENDING RAPIDLY AS IT HAS DONE UPSTREAM IN NORTHEAST IOWA
THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE...MINOR HOURLY TEMP UPDATES THROUGH
ROUTINE PROCEDURES SENT. NO CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT SNOWS
ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD 12Z.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HAVE A BAND OF WAA SNOW FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF K9V9 WITH A WARM FRONT
RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WEAK TROFS WERE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST. A NARROW TONGUE OF 30 DEGREE DEW
POINTS RAN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SAID TRENDS. THE FORCING
CREATING THE SNOW GENERALLY LINES UP WITH THE ADVECTION IN THE
800-825 MB LAYER. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONVERGENCE/FORCING WILL
CLEAR THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.
THUS WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE BAND. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SEE EITHER NO SNOW OR JUST A FEW
FLURRIES FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
BRIEF QUIET AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...RAPID SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SURGES
INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK OUT DURING THE MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. THE FORCING/MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK
SHUT DOWN OF THE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SNOW PERSISTING UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
FAIRLY RAPID END TO THE SNOW.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING MAY OCCUR BETWEEN I-80 AND HIGHWAY 30.
AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE ROUGHLY AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE
SHOULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO PLANS ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY WILL BE
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE COMING SNOW. ..08..
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...1037+ MB CANADIAN RIDGE STILL ON
TRACK TO DUMP DOWN THE PLAINS/UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING WITH A SCOURING EFFECT ON CLOUDS/ANY LINGERING
PRECIP. 12Z MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD PROFILES SUCH AS -13C TO
-18C H925 MB TEMPS OVER SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK FOR A TEMP BOTTOM-OUT
AS LONG AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR. WITH
INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING SFC WINDS
OF 5-10 MPH INTO THU MORNING...AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE MO RVR
VALLEY DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...BOTH THESE IDEAL
RADIATE-OUT PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE SO IDEAL. BUT WILL BANK ON THE DEEP
SNOW COVER AND SFC WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE AND KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA
REACHING LOWS OF -8 TO -12F ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...TO -3 TO -9F TO
THE SOUTH. EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF 3-6 MPH WILL STILL GENERATE -15 TO
-25F WIND CHILLS ACRS THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO MID THU MORNING. THUS AN ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EVENTUALLY
ISSUED.
RETURN FLOW STREAMS BACK NORTHWARD BEHIND PASSING RIDGE AXIS FOR
LATE THU AFTERNOON HIGHS. DEPENDING ON WIND SPEED DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET THU EVENING...THU NIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR FROM SUNSET THROUGH
9-10 PM CST OR SO...BEFORE DOING A STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND INTO
FRI MORNING. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
DAMPENING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE CLIPPER STORM TRACK AND
LLVL BAROCLINICITY GETTING SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
BULK OF THE SOLUTION SUGGEST FRI TO BE A WARM SECTOR DAY SOUTH OF
A PASSING WAVE ACRS MN INTO WI...THE WARM DRAW UP ACRS THE CWA
WOULD PRODUCE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW
COVER...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE 30S
ALTHOUGH A 40 STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. SFC WAVE AND FRONT SLIP
THRU THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BUT POST-LOW COOL DOWN NOTHING EXTREME.
WITH SOME SNOW MELT JUICING THE SFC LAYER ON FRI...ANY SFC WINDS
GOING LIGHT OR LIGHT CONVERGENT MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG IF ANY
PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OCCUR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST FLATTENED FLOW TO
USHER THE NEXT WAVE/WHICH IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
RIDGE DAMPENING/ ACRS THE NORTH HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRE-SYSTEM WARMING MAY MAKE FOR MORE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I80 FOR SAT...AND CONTINUED SNOW MELTING.
WITH CONVERGENT RETURN FLOW ALONG ANOTHER WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM...FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS MAY LIMIT TEMPS SAT TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN MIND IF THIS OCCURS. BULK OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEF ZONE SNOWS WOULD STAY ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN INTO
WI/LOWER MI WITH THE CURRENT CLIPPER TRACK FRO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BUT SOME PRECIP WOULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...SAT
EVENING A WINTRY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 30...WITH WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWERS...OR RAIN-SNOW SHOWER MIX THEN POSSIBLE DOWN TO
HWY 30 OR SOUTH TO I80 ON SUNDAY IN THE SYSTEM/S WAKE. WILL KEEP
GENERAL BLEND OF POPS AND MAINLY SNOW WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
SAT NIGHT IN VCNTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLES AND LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST
A BRIEF CHILL DOWN MONDAY BEHIND WHAT EVER SYSTEM CAN MOVE ACRS THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH PACIFIC JET ENERGY THEN BILLOWING IT/S WAY
EASTWARD FOR A MEAN FLOW FLATTEN-OUT AGAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD ALSO BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPS AGAIN AS WELL AS HIGHER DPTS FROM
THE SOUTH EATING AT THE SNOW COVER. WAA TYPE PRECIP WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE CWA TUE INTO NEXT WED...BUT OF COURSE TIMING
AND AREAL EXTENT TOO DISTANT TO PLACE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MVFR CIGS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF IOWA...AND ARE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL IMPACT CID...DBQ...AND POSSIBLY MLI
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TAFS ARE UPDATED FOR CIGS BETWEEN 1100 FT
AND 2500 FT. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ANOTHER STORM IN
SOUTHERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...WITH MORE SNOW SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ILLINOIS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS
SNOW WILL IMPACT BRL...AND COULD IMPACT MLI...BUT SHOULD MISS CID
AND DBQ. SO...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR SNOWS AFTER 15Z/04...FOR MLI AND
BRL...AND TEMPO IN IFR SNOW FOR BRL...WHERE IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
MORE INTENSE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 12 TO 15 KTS. ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 434 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO REFINE POPS TO ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
BEFORE ENDING RAPIDLY AS IT HAS DONE UPSTREAM IN NORTHEAST IOWA
THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE...MINOR HOURLY TEMP UPDATES THROUGH
ROUTINE PROCEDURES SENT. NO CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT SNOWS
ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD 12Z.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HAVE A BAND OF WAA SNOW FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF K9V9 WITH A WARM FRONT
RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WEAK TROFS WERE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST. A NARROW TONGUE OF 30 DEGREE DEW
POINTS RAN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SAID TRENDS. THE FORCING
CREATING THE SNOW GENERALLY LINES UP WITH THE ADVECTION IN THE
800-825 MB LAYER. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONVERGENCE/FORCING WILL
CLEAR THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.
THUS WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE BAND. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SEE EITHER NO SNOW OR JUST A FEW
FLURRIES FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
BRIEF QUIET AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...RAPID SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SURGES
INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK OUT DURING THE MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. THE FORCING/MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK
SHUT DOWN OF THE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SNOW PERSISTING UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
FAIRLY RAPID END TO THE SNOW.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING MAY OCCUR BETWEEN I-80 AND HIGHWAY 30.
AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE ROUGHLY AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE
SHOULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO PLANS ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY WILL BE
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE COMING SNOW. ..08..
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...1037+ MB CANADIAN RIDGE STILL ON
TRACK TO DUMP DOWN THE PLAINS/UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING WITH A SCOURING EFFECT ON CLOUDS/ANY LINGERING
PRECIP. 12Z MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD PROFILES SUCH AS -13C TO
-18C H925 MB TEMPS OVER SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK FOR A TEMP BOTTOM-OUT
AS LONG AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR. WITH
INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING SFC WINDS
OF 5-10 MPH INTO THU MORNING...AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE MO RVR
VALLEY DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...BOTH THESE IDEAL
RADIATE-OUT PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE SO IDEAL. BUT WILL BANK ON THE DEEP
SNOW COVER AND SFC WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE AND KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA
REACHING LOWS OF -8 TO -12F ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...TO -3 TO -9F TO
THE SOUTH. EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF 3-6 MPH WILL STILL GENERATE -15 TO
-25F WIND CHILLS ACRS THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO MID THU MORNING. THUS AN ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EVENTUALLY
ISSUED.
RETURN FLOW STREAMS BACK NORTHWARD BEHIND PASSING RIDGE AXIS FOR
LATE THU AFTERNOON HIGHS. DEPENDING ON WIND SPEED DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET THU EVENING...THU NIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR FROM SUNSET THROUGH
9-10 PM CST OR SO...BEFORE DOING A STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND INTO
FRI MORNING. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
DAMPENING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE CLIPPER STORM TRACK AND
LLVL BAROCLINICITY GETTING SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
BULK OF THE SOLUTION SUGGEST FRI TO BE A WARM SECTOR DAY SOUTH OF
A PASSING WAVE ACRS MN INTO WI...THE WARM DRAW UP ACRS THE CWA
WOULD PRODUCE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW
COVER...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE 30S
ALTHOUGH A 40 STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. SFC WAVE AND FRONT SLIP
THRU THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BUT POST-LOW COOL DOWN NOTHING EXTREME.
WITH SOME SNOW MELT JUICING THE SFC LAYER ON FRI...ANY SFC WINDS
GOING LIGHT OR LIGHT CONVERGENT MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG IF ANY
PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OCCUR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST FLATTENED FLOW TO
USHER THE NEXT WAVE/WHICH IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
RIDGE DAMPENING/ ACRS THE NORTH HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRE-SYSTEM WARMING MAY MAKE FOR MORE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I80 FOR SAT...AND CONTINUED SNOW MELTING.
WITH CONVERGENT RETURN FLOW ALONG ANOTHER WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM...FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS MAY LIMIT TEMPS SAT TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN MIND IF THIS OCCURS. BULK OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEF ZONE SNOWS WOULD STAY ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN INTO
WI/LOWER MI WITH THE CURRENT CLIPPER TRACK FRO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BUT SOME PRECIP WOULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...SAT
EVENING A WINTRY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 30...WITH WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWERS...OR RAIN-SNOW SHOWER MIX THEN POSSIBLE DOWN TO
HWY 30 OR SOUTH TO I80 ON SUNDAY IN THE SYSTEM/S WAKE. WILL KEEP
GENERAL BLEND OF POPS AND MAINLY SNOW WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
SAT NIGHT IN VCNTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLES AND LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST
A BRIEF CHILL DOWN MONDAY BEHIND WHAT EVER SYSTEM CAN MOVE ACRS THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH PACIFIC JET ENERGY THEN BILLOWING IT/S WAY
EASTWARD FOR A MEAN FLOW FLATTEN-OUT AGAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD ALSO BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPS AGAIN AS WELL AS HIGHER DPTS FROM
THE SOUTH EATING AT THE SNOW COVER. WAA TYPE PRECIP WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE CWA TUE INTO NEXT WED...BUT OF COURSE TIMING
AND AREAL EXTENT TOO DISTANT TO PLACE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE FIRST OF TWO SNOW SYSTEMS IS EXITING THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO
00Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER STORM WILL
ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT...WITH MORE SNOW SPREADING
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ILLINOIS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THIS SNOW WILL IMPACT BRL...AND COULD IMPACT MLI...BUT SHOULD MISS
CID AND DBQ. SO...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR SNOWS AFTER 15Z/04...FOR MLI
AND BRL...AND TEMPO IN IFR SNOW FOR BRL...WHERE IT SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT MORE INTENSE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 12 TO 15 KTS.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
437 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED IN CENTRAL CANADA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY AHEAD OF AVAILABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT MOST MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW BACKING OFF
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH. BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH
MOST OF THE JET LIFT IS NOW DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CHANCES AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR RECEIVING GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
DIMINISHING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
DIP FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO STILL END
UP TO 2 INCHES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL
END SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES WITH A STRONGER 40KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83...WHICH COULD BRING SOME MARGINAL
BLOWING SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT. RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
THE SAME...WITH WESTERN RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
ON MONDAY AND HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS EVENING AND THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
512 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE JET
FROM OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LED TO PERSISTENT LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MID-AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, WHICH IS
WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS
FOUND NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TONIGHT ONCE AN
ARCTIC PERTURBATION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
(TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY). SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT BEING THE RESULT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION, LOW CLOUD COVER, AND STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. WE BOOSTED THE WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 23 TO 26 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR ESPECIALLY THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING
STRONGEST THE FEW HOURS AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY UPPER TEENS,
PERHAPS, BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS FAR
AS THE SNOW FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED ON THAT
FRONT. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT UP IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST (CENTRAL KANSAS) CLOSER TO WHERE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 700MB FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP AROUND HAYS. THE WRF-NMM HAS THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH, BUT SINCE IT IS THE OUTLIER, MUCH LESS
WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THIS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF A BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BE EXITING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LESSER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SOONER IN THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER, IS SHOWING
THE WAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSING OFF AS IT DOES.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY AS THIS
FRONT PASSES A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WIND AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 40 WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE NAM, RAP, ARW, AND NMM THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE HAYS AREA BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AND THEN DODGE CITY AND
GARDEN CITY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDING INDICATING THAT THE
SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL WILL QUICKLY SATURATED SO VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CEILINGS. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW 3-5SM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SATURATES THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW,
MAINLY IN THE HAYS AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 26 29 14 49 / 0 20 10 0
GCK 28 31 15 54 / 0 20 10 0
EHA 34 38 19 57 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 29 34 17 53 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 24 26 12 46 / 0 60 10 0
P28 30 32 12 39 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
150 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT HALF WAY THROUGH EASTERN
EKNTUCKY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS LIKELY EXITING THE FAR EAST IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO CAPTURE THE LULL IN THE PRECIP A
BIT BETTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN
TOWARDS DAWN...USHERING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR AND THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO HOLDING ONTO NEAR 100 POPS FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARED TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF GENERALLY
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE AS DOES THE RAP WHICH LEADS TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME RANGE...AND COULD ENVISION SNOWFALL POSSIBLY ENDING UP
A LITTLE LOWER. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
AS OF 8 PM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
INDIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. A DRY SLOT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OK NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IL WITH RADAR RETURNS ACROSS KY EAST OF THIS
AREA. A SFC TROUGH WHICH IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
EXTENDED WEST INTO SOUTHERN IL AND EASTERN MO.SOME SNOW IS ALSO
FALLING NEAR AND BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH WHICH IS LOCATED IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FROM THE MID 30S
TO UPPER 30S ON TOP OF BLACK MOUNTAIN IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS IS ENTERING THE JKL CWA WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS EAST...WE EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME IN MANY AREAS AFTER IT PASSES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH NEARS AND LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO
COOL TO COLD ENOUGH LEVELS FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OF
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET
COULD ALSO CHANGEOVER DURING THAT TIME.
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AS THE COLDEST AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OR DEVELOP AND ENHANCE AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE TERRAIN RISE AT THE ESCARPMENT IN OUR WESTERN OR NW CWA
AROUND 6 OR 7 AM AND THEN GENERALLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL LESS ORGANIZED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIX MAY BE
ONGOING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. RECENT NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THUS NOT PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
EVOLUTION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW LEVELS
HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED
LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH ARGUE FOR GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...WE PLAN TO NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL AREAS TO THE WSW.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ALONG WITH TIMING INTO
THE NW COUNTIES WHICH ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE FOR POSSIBLE AREAL ADDITION TO THE WSW.
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FONDE MTN AREA OF
WESTERN BELL COUNTY WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE NW UPSLOPE FLOW
AND BETTER MATCH START TIMES TO MY SOUTH...WE HAVE STARTED THE WSW A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER FOR THE VA BORDER COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS IS
STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWN INTO TEXAS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE CORE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD IS NOW
ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. UNDER THICK CLOUDS AND THE ARRIVING RAINS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE PEAKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE COMING UP WITH THE
ARRIVING RAINS AND NOW VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE EAST AND
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TO THE WEST. WIND HAVE ALSO PICKED UP WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND 15 TO 20 KTS ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY WHIP A SHARP TROUGH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
FOLLOWS...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SEEN AS STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM12 AND GFS/GEM. HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
DETAILS FROM THE NAM12 BEFORE LEANING MORE ON THE GFS AND NAM12 WITH
THE TRAILING WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THE WRAPPED UP SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE LOW PASSES TO
THE EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND
INCREASING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE LOW/S BACKSIDE EXITS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z RESULTING IN A SWITCH OVER FOR
ANY LINGERING PCPN TO SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UPSLOPE WHILE
THE SFC LOW FURTHER DEEPENS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ADD TO THE
SNOW FALL FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE WINDS BLOWING THE
SNOW AROUND KEEPING THE VIS LOW IN ANY SHOWERS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE
WORST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS IN THE FAR
EAST. ALONG THOSE PLACES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER SOME HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SEEN ON THE PEAKS
ABOVE 2500 FEET AND UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE LOWER RIDGES WHILE VALLEYS
GENERALLY PICK UP AN INCH OR LESS. FINALLY...IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW
AND WINDS...THE COLD AIR COULD MOVE IN QUICK ENOUGH...TRAILING THE
RAINS AND LIMITED DRY SLOTTING TO RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS ON AREA
ROADS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HAVE AN SPS OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
OUT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...HITTING THE EAST PROGRESSIVELY HARDER FOR
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS. OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES WILL HAVE AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW GOING UNTIL 23Z WHILE TO THE WEST THE ADVISORY WILL
RUN THROUGH 19Z WITH LESSER TOTALS. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA SENDING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE TEENS MOST
PLACES BY DAWN TUESDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS
FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT
FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE CAA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON OWING TO THE TENDENCY FOR THE MODEL/MOS
GUIDANCE TO UNDER DO UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
TUESDAY WILL START OUT WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SRLY AND SKIES CLEARING...THOUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT SHOOTS OFF TO THE SE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF KY. THIS COURSE OF ACTION...INCLUDING THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING...IS VERY MUCH A RESULT OF WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS OF
NOW...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RESULTING SURFACE
FEATURES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM...SHOWING A 1009MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS IN A SIMILAR LOCATION FOR
THE LOW...BUT IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT 1013MB AS OF THE 12Z RUN. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW...AND BRING FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE GFS...AND SOMEWHAT LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM.
REGARDLESS...THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM...WITH MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE FALLING ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE...WINDS WILL MAKE A QUICK SHIFT TO THE N AND BEGIN
PULLING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AROUND THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION STARTS.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH MAYBE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF RAIN AT THE ONSET. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. DRY AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY WORK IN
AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING SNOW POTENTIAL SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DO NOTE...GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE TIMING OF
ONSET AND DEPARTURE IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. THIS WILL THEN LIKELY AFFECT
THE SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE WHERE SNOW
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...UPPER LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FLOW. COLDER CANADIAN AIR FLOWING
INTO THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMS BY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. OUR NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH WIDEPREAD RAINS ENDING THROUGH 08Z IN THE EAST.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z...WITH SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKING UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ANY MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITIES. LOWER CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT BY DUSK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS
DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ086-
104-106>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1111 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO HOLDING ONTO NEAR 100 POPS FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
IN THE FAR WEST. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARED TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF GENERALLY
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE AS DOES THE RAP WHICH LEADS TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME RANGE...AND COULD ENVISION SNOWFALL POSSIBLY ENDING UP
A LITTLE LOWER. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
AS OF 8 PM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
INDIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. A DRY SLOT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OK NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IL WITH RADAR RETURNS ACROSS KY EAST OF THIS
AREA. A SFC TROUGH WHICH IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR
EXTENDED WEST INTO SOUTHERN IL AND EASTERN MO.SOME SNOW IS ALSO
FALLING NEAR AND BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH WHICH IS LOCATED IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FROM THE MID 30S
TO UPPER 30S ON TOP OF BLACK MOUNTAIN IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS IS ENTERING THE JKL CWA WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS EAST...WE EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME IN MANY AREAS AFTER IT PASSES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH NEARS AND LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO
COOL TO COLD ENOUGH LEVELS FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OF
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2500 FEET
COULD ALSO CHANGEOVER DURING THAT TIME.
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AS THE COLDEST AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OR DEVELOP AND ENHANCE AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE TERRAIN RISE AT THE ESCARPMENT IN OUR WESTERN OR NW CWA
AROUND 6 OR 7 AM AND THEN GENERALLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL LESS ORGANIZED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIX MAY BE
ONGOING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. RECENT NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THUS NOT PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
EVOLUTION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW LEVELS
HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED
LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH ARGUE FOR GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...WE PLAN TO NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL AREAS TO THE WSW.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ALONG WITH TIMING INTO
THE NW COUNTIES WHICH ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE FOR POSSIBLE AREAL ADDITION TO THE WSW.
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FONDE MTN AREA OF
WESTERN BELL COUNTY WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORED IN THE NW UPSLOPE FLOW
AND BETTER MATCH START TIMES TO MY SOUTH...WE HAVE STARTED THE WSW A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER FOR THE VA BORDER COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS IS
STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWN INTO TEXAS. AS THIS LOW PUSHES
FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE CORE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD IS NOW
ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. UNDER THICK CLOUDS AND THE ARRIVING RAINS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE PEAKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE COMING UP WITH THE
ARRIVING RAINS AND NOW VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE EAST AND
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TO THE WEST. WIND HAVE ALSO PICKED UP WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND 15 TO 20 KTS ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY WHIP A SHARP TROUGH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
FOLLOWS...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SEEN AS STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM12 AND GFS/GEM. HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
DETAILS FROM THE NAM12 BEFORE LEANING MORE ON THE GFS AND NAM12 WITH
THE TRAILING WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FOR EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THE WRAPPED UP SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE LOW PASSES TO
THE EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND
INCREASING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE LOW/S BACKSIDE EXITS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z RESULTING IN A SWITCH OVER FOR
ANY LINGERING PCPN TO SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UPSLOPE WHILE
THE SFC LOW FURTHER DEEPENS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ADD TO THE
SNOW FALL FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE WINDS BLOWING THE
SNOW AROUND KEEPING THE VIS LOW IN ANY SHOWERS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE
WORST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS IN THE FAR
EAST. ALONG THOSE PLACES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER SOME HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SEEN ON THE PEAKS
ABOVE 2500 FEET AND UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE LOWER RIDGES WHILE VALLEYS
GENERALLY PICK UP AN INCH OR LESS. FINALLY...IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW
AND WINDS...THE COLD AIR COULD MOVE IN QUICK ENOUGH...TRAILING THE
RAINS AND LIMITED DRY SLOTTING TO RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS ON AREA
ROADS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HAVE AN SPS OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
OUT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...HITTING THE EAST PROGRESSIVELY HARDER FOR
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS. OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES WILL HAVE AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW GOING UNTIL 23Z WHILE TO THE WEST THE ADVISORY WILL
RUN THROUGH 19Z WITH LESSER TOTALS. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA SENDING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE TEENS MOST
PLACES BY DAWN TUESDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS
FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT
FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE CAA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON OWING TO THE TENDENCY FOR THE MODEL/MOS
GUIDANCE TO UNDER DO UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
TUESDAY WILL START OUT WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SRLY AND SKIES CLEARING...THOUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
STRENGTHENING AS IT SHOOTS OFF TO THE SE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF KY. THIS COURSE OF ACTION...INCLUDING THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING...IS VERY MUCH A RESULT OF WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS OF
NOW...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RESULTING SURFACE
FEATURES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM...SHOWING A 1009MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS IN A SIMILAR LOCATION FOR
THE LOW...BUT IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT 1013MB AS OF THE 12Z RUN. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW...AND BRING FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE GFS...AND SOMEWHAT LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ECMWF AND GEM.
REGARDLESS...THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM...WITH MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE FALLING ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE...WINDS WILL MAKE A QUICK SHIFT TO THE N AND BEGIN
PULLING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AROUND THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION STARTS.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH MAYBE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF RAIN AT THE ONSET. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. DRY AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY WORK IN
AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING SNOW POTENTIAL SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DO NOTE...GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE TIMING OF
ONSET AND DEPARTURE IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. THIS WILL THEN LIKELY AFFECT
THE SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE WHERE SNOW
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...UPPER LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION BACK TO ZONAL FLOW. COLDER CANADIAN AIR FLOWING
INTO THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMS BY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. OUR NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ON DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
CIGS INITIALLY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE OR FALL INTO THE VFR
RANGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DETERIORATION TO IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
LOWER VIS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
START SHIFTING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST.
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z ON
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ087-
088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ086-
104-106>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
927 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS PRETTY SOLID IN COVERAGE MUCH
EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX INTO SW LA HAS QUICKLY
DISSIPATED AS IT HAS MOVED EAST AND ENCOUNTERED DRIER AIR. NEXT
BATCH OF RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO REFORM WELL SOUTH AND WEST ALONG
THE SE TX COAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HANDLED THE
DISSIPATION OF THE FIRST BATCH QUITE WELL AND IS TRYING TO BRING
THE NEW PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST INTO OUT SOUTHERN ZONES WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.
LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL BUT TIGHT
UPPER TROUGH SPINNING ACROSS OLD MEXICO...MOVING INTO EXTREME S TX
ATTM. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY SUPPOSED TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO SC TX
BY 12Z WED...FILLING AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX BY 18Z WED. THE PRECIP
FCST MAY BE A LITTLE BIT HIGH ON POPS OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITNESSED ON KSHV`S 00Z SOUNDING BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS OBVIOUSLY MORE MOIST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SO
WILL LET THE POP FCST RIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
A QUICK CHECK OF 03Z TEMPS SHOW THAT FCST TEMPS ARE WITHIN
TOLERANCE COMPARED TO ACTUAL AMBIENT 03Z TEMPS. ALL OTHER FCST
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO
THE FCST OVERNIGHT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 04/08Z. SCT SHWRS ARE ONGOING ACROSS E TX/S LA AND A FEW OF
THE SHWRS COULD AFFECT KLFK THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SHWRS SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE RAIN SHOULD BE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KSHV-KMLU.
SCT COVERAGE OF THE SHWRS LEADS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PREVAIL
RAIN AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 39 56 38 45 29 / 10 30 20 10 0
MLU 36 54 36 44 27 / 10 30 30 10 0
DEQ 33 53 31 43 27 / 0 20 20 10 0
TXK 38 53 32 44 28 / 0 20 20 10 0
ELD 33 53 33 43 25 / 0 20 30 10 0
TYR 41 57 38 47 34 / 20 20 20 10 0
GGG 39 56 40 47 31 / 20 20 20 10 0
LFK 42 59 44 51 34 / 40 30 20 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1114 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA...WITH MID
AND UPPER LVL CLOUDINESSS IN SOUTH TX...GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
NORTH TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER 03/06Z. AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTN...NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...DECOUPLING BTWN 02/22-23Z./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN SFC RIDGING HAS SETTLED S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER
WITH TIME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRAOCU FIELD OVER SE AR/NE LA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY SINK S...POSSIBLY
SKIRTING ERN UNION COUNTY AR AS WELL AS THE ERN NCNTRL LA
PARISHES. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE
WE SHOULD NOTE IN INCREASE IN THE THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WELL AHEAD
OF THE SRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE MORE SKY COVERAGE
TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FOR THE CIRRUS...AS IT
BEGINS TO EXPAND NEWRD OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK
NOTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST
THIS MORNING...AND STRONG SFC RIDGING JUST TO THE S...16Z TEMPS
HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO APPROACH/EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK ALONG/N OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ONLY A SLOW WARMUP EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
DID TWEAK MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON THE HRRR 2M
TEMPS...WHICH INITIALIZED WELL ON TEMPS THIS MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 28 53 37 55 / 0 0 0 20 20
MLU 44 27 49 34 52 / 0 0 0 20 20
DEQ 42 24 52 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 20
TXK 41 27 51 39 56 / 0 0 0 10 20
ELD 42 25 51 33 55 / 0 0 0 10 20
TYR 43 32 55 40 57 / 0 0 0 20 20
GGG 44 29 54 36 57 / 0 0 0 20 20
LFK 48 31 56 41 57 / 0 0 20 30 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1058 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN SFC RIDGING HAS SETTLED S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER
WITH TIME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRAOCU FIELD OVER SE AR/NE LA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY SINK S...POSSIBLY
SKIRTING ERN UNION COUNTY AR AS WELL AS THE ERN NCNTRL LA
PARISHES. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE
WE SHOULD NOTE IN INCREASE IN THE THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WELL AHEAD
OF THE SRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE MORE SKY COVERAGE
TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FOR THE CIRRUS...AS IT
BEGINS TO EXPAND NEWRD OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK
NOTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST
THIS MORNING...AND STRONG SFC RIDGING JUST TO THE S...16Z TEMPS
HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO APPROACH/EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK ALONG/N OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ONLY A SLOW WARMUP EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
DID TWEAK MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON THE HRRR 2M
TEMPS...WHICH INITIALIZED WELL ON TEMPS THIS MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 28 53 37 55 / 0 0 0 20 20
MLU 44 27 49 34 52 / 0 0 0 20 20
DEQ 42 24 52 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 20
TXK 41 27 51 39 56 / 0 0 0 10 20
ELD 42 25 51 33 55 / 0 0 0 10 20
TYR 43 32 55 40 57 / 0 0 0 20 20
GGG 44 29 54 36 57 / 0 0 0 20 20
LFK 48 31 56 41 57 / 0 0 20 30 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAFS...SCT STRATUS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SE
OK/SRN AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS BUT THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EXIT AROUND SUNRISE AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGH END MVFR CIGS WITH THESE CLOUDS...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA REMAINING NEARLY SKC FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. NWLY WINDS
PERSIST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY 02/18Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY EVENING. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS MOVING SOUTH PROVIDING
COLD AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. ONLY CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION AND ADJUST THE DEW POINTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
TO NEAR AND ABOVE LAKE WIND CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT AS IS. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.
CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.
SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 30 46 26 53 39 / 10 0 0 0 20
MLU 34 44 25 52 35 / 10 0 0 0 20
DEQ 24 42 22 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 28 43 25 52 37 / 10 0 0 0 10
ELD 29 43 23 52 34 / 10 0 0 0 10
TYR 27 43 30 53 40 / 10 0 0 0 20
GGG 28 44 27 53 39 / 10 0 0 0 20
LFK 33 49 29 53 41 / 10 0 0 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
632 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HV BEEN ABLE TO TRIM WINTER WX ADVY SOME AS TEMPS SLOWLY WARM.
EMPHASIS ON SLOW. MESONET TEMPS SUGGEST AOB 32F AIR STILL RESIDES
ALONG MD/PA BORDER FM FREDERICK CO EWD. HV KEPT ADVY THERE...AND
CANX THE REST. CWFA REMAINS IN A RELATIVE MIN WRT RADAR. SHWRS
ASSOCD W/ CDFNT APPROACHING WRN ZNS ATTM.
CDFNT IN WVA WL HEAD EWD AS LOW CROSSES SRN PA. ITS LOOKING A LTL
SLOWER THAN PRVS CYCLES...WHICH WL KEEP A CHC OF PCPN INTO THE
MRNG. HIEST POPS IN THE EAST INVOF ISENT LIFT AHD OF FNT. THE
SLOWER TIMING WL ALSO PERMIT TEMPS TO RISE FURTHER DURING THE MRNG
HRS. MAXT WL OCCUR PRIOR TO NOON. CFP WL STILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THE AM. THE AFTN TEMP DROP WL BE MORE DRAMATIC W/ OF THE
BLURDG...AND MAY BE TEMPERED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TO THE EAST.
AS CAA COMES CRASHING IN ON NW FLOW...MOMENTUM IN THE MIXED LYR WL
INCREASE AS HGTS RISE RAPIDLY /AND LOW DEEPENS AS WELL...INCREASING
P-GRAD/. MOST MDL SNDGS SUGGEST GUSTS AOA 40 KT. HV WIND ADVY IN
PLACE...WHICH APPEARS PRUDENT. OF CONCERN ARE RAP SNDGS WHICH
SUGGEST 50 KT AT 2000 FT. THIS WOULD BE THE TOP OF THE MIXED LYR.
DONT XPCT FULL MIXING...BUT IT COULD TRIP MTN TOPS. HV HAD GNDC THIS
WINTER OFFER HIGH WINDS BEFORE THEN PULL BACK...SO WONT UPGRADE HIER
ELEVS /SUCH AS THE NEW SKYLINE DR ZONES/ TO HIGH WIND WARNING JUST
YET...BUT IT IS AN ISSUE THAT WL BE FWDD ON TO DAY SHIFT TO WATCH
CLOSELY.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT CAA/NW FLOW BRINGS IS UPSLP SHSN. TRAJ AND
DEPTH UNDER INVSN BOTH LOOK GOOD...AND GDNC CRANKING OUT A DECENT PD
OF SNOW MIDDAY...W/ INCRSG RATIOS. HV PUMPED UP TTLS...ENUF TO
TRIGGER ADVYS IN EFFECT TIL 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIPRES BLDG EWD ACRS CWFA TNGT...AND WL BE THE PRIMARY WX INFLUENCE
TUE. TNGT WL MARK THE END OF CAA...W/ THE ADVCTN SIGN REVERSING
DURING THE MRNG TUE. BOTH PDS WL STILL BE COLD THO...W/ MINIMAL CHGS
FM GOING FCST.
ALTHO SKIES WL BE MOCLR TNGT...SUSPECT CONTD WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING TOO FAR. AM ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS...BUT DIDNT UNDERCUT
IT IN THE ABSENCE OF A GOOD RADL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. MAXT TUE WL BE
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 30F ACRS NRN MD/ERN WVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE CWA EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S...FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
CHARLOTTESVILLE-FREDERICKSBURG CORRIDOR MIGHT REACH 50.
MODELS ARE NOT YET IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE 00Z GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. PTYPE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AGAIN.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY KEEPS HIGH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT OVER SRN MD AND THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ARE LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLJ SLIDING E OF TERMINALS THIS MRNG. A LLWS RMK REMAINS IN
DCA/BWI TAFS FOR A CPL MORE HRS.
FLGT CONDS CONT TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FCST. LIMITED AOB IFR
TO BWI/MTN WHERE ITS ALREADY OBSVD. SINCE TAFS SENT...CHO DROPPED TO
IFR. MAY NEED TO REASSESS. THERES STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
WORSENING CONDS PRIOR TO CFP...BUT THE WINDOW FOR THAT IS CLOSING.
XPCT CFP 13Z MRB...14 OR 15Z ELSW. POST-FROPA...CLDS WL SCATTER
OUT AND WNDS WL VEER NWLY/PICK UP SGFNTLY. SUSTAINED WNDS BHD FNT
ARND 20 KT...W/ A FEW GUSTS REACHING 40-45 KT...SPCLY DURING THE
AFTN. THIS WL IMPACT THE AFTN PUSH. SUNSET WL MARK THE BGNG OF THE
END AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES. WNDS WONT BE NEALY AS MUCH OF AN
ISSUE AFTER MIDNGT.
HIPRES TUE WL MEAN VFR AND LGT WNDS...BACKING SWLY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. S-SW WINDS
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. VFR EXPECTED LATE WEEK. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GNLY LGT WNDS ACRS THE WATERS THIS MRNG AS MIXING POOR. THERE IS A
STRONG LLJ...MUCH OF WHICH ISNT MIXING DOWN. THE SERN SXN OF THE
MARINE AREA PROVING TO BE THE EXCEPTION ATTM.
AS A CDFNT NEARS...PCPN WL END...AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING WL
IMPRV A BIT. HV SCA IN PLACE TO ACCT FOR THIS. THE BIGGER CONCERN WL
BE POST FROPA...WHEN WINDS WL VEER NWLY AND PICK UP SGFNTLY. A LTL
WIGGLE ROOM IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE PEAK PD WL INCL THE MID AND LT
AFTN HRS...LASTING INTO ELY EVNG. GLW IN PLACE FOR THIS PD...WHEN
MDL SNDGS SUGGEST GUSTS 40-45 KT. WL LKLY NEED SCA/S BYD THAT... BUT
DONT WANT TO CONFUSE ISSUE W/ RAMPING UP AND RAMPING DOWN HAZARDS.
TUE SHUD BE MUCH QUIETER TUE AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA CONDS MAY LINGER
FOR A PORTION OF THAT TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY UNDER S-SW FLOW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ003-004-501-
502.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ004>006-507.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-501-
503>505-507-508.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
VAZ036>040-050>057-502-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
503-505.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/KCS
MARINE...HTS/KCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
555 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ENTERING THE LATTER STAGES OF A VERY COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEARING THE DUBOIS AREA. WARM
AIR HOLDS IN PLACE OVER NRN WV AND EXTREME SW PA...BUT WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY AS MUCH COLDER AIR KNOCKS ON OUR WRN DOOR.
BLENDED MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR TEMPS IN WITH PREVIOUS TEMPS.
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE TEMPS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
ARCTIC AIR ENTERING OUR REGION AS READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL OH ARE
QUICKLY CRASHING BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE. MANY LOCATIONS ARE SEEING THE HIGH TEMPS CURRENTLY
AND WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.
AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING...THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE COMES CRASHING TO EARTH. THE RESULT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT SNOW SQUALLS AND SHOWERS AS FLOW VEERS TO
NWRLY. EXPECTING A QUICK COATING OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS...UP
TO AN INCH THROUGH ERN OH...1-2" ACROSS SW PA AND NRN WV. THE MNTS
OF PA/MD/WV SHOULD SQUEEZE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE OUT WITH
SNOW RATIOS JUMPING QUICKLY UP TO 20:1 OR BETTER. EXPECTING AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4" SPECIFICALLY FOR GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WW.Y FOR THOSE TWO
COUNTIES THROUGH 7PM TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
REMAIN UNTOUCHED.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP TUES MORNING...BUT SHOULD AVOID CLEARING COMPLETELY. THIS WILL
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TUES
MORNING...BUT BL DECOUPLING UNDER THE CALM HIGH WILL ENSURE A
CRISP COLD MORNING. WAA KICKS IN TUES MORNING AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SW. HIGH TEMPS TUES WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAYS MARKS...BUT STILL
NOWHERE NEAR AVG.
TAX
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY BRUSHES PAST THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING SFC LOW PLACEMENT OF THE WEDNESDAY
CLIPPER...KEEPING THE CENTER NORTH OF THE PA BORDER WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER IN HANDLING THE
FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BY FAR THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE OUT OF ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHILE OVERALL THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FAVOR A COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION. OPTED TO LEAN LARGELY ON LATEST EC AND GEFS WHICH ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
WITH THAT....EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SEND TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND TEENS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW ALOFT
TURNS WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF TH NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN/FREEZING
WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN...WITH MOST SITES EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ040-041.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-073-074.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOPRES INVOF PIT ATTM. WHILE CWFA W/IN WARM SECTOR...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING...ITS NOT ALL THAT WARM. MESONET OBS SUGGEST PLENTY OF
SITEA AOB 32F ACRS NRN CWFA...N OF LINE FM OKV-IAD-NAK. HWVR...PCPN
ASSOCD W/ 60-70 KT LLJ PULLING EAST...AND A GRDL WARM-UP IS TAKING
PLACE. WITH THAT IN MIND...FEEL COMFY TRIMMING A FEW ZONES AT 3AM--
SOME SCHEDULED /LOUDOUN-BALT CITY/ AND SOME NOT /HAMPSHIRE-ERN
MINERAL/. WHILE RADAR DEPICTION OF PCPN NOT THAT INTENSIVE W OF THE
BLURDG...THERE ARE STILL SOME RETURNS SO SPOTTY FZRA STILL PSBL. THE
REST OF THE ADVY IN EFFECT TIL 13Z. WL MONITOR OBS/RADAR...AND DROP
ELY AS CONDS PERMIT.
CDFNT IN WRN WVA WL HEAD EWD AS LOW CROSSES SRN PA. ITS LOOKING A
LTL SLOWER THAN PRVS CYCLES...WHICH WL KEEP A CHC OF PCPN INTO THE
MRNG. HIEST POPS IN THE EAST INVOF ISENT LIFT AHD OF FNT. THE SLOWER
TIMING WL ALSO PERMIT TEMPS TO RISE FURTHER DURING THE MRNG HRS.
MAXT WL OCCUR PRIOR TO NOON. CFP WL STILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AM.
THE AFTN TEMP DROP WL BE MORE DRAMATIC W/ OF THE BLURDG...AND MAY BE
TEMPERED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TO THE EAST.
AS CAA COMES CRASHING IN ON NW FLOW...MOMENTUM IN THE MIXED LYR WL
INCREASE AS HGTS RISE RAPIDLY /AND LOW DEEPENS AS WELL...INCREASING
P-GRAD/. MOST MDL SNDGS SUGGEST GUSTS AOA 40 KT. HV WIND ADVY IN
PLACE...WHICH APPEARS PRUDENT. OF CONCERN ARE RAP SNDGS WHICH
SUGGEST 50 KT AT 2000 FT. THIS WOULD BE THE TOP OF THE MIXED LYR.
DONT XPCT FULL MIXING...BUT IT COULD TRIP MTN TOPS. HV HAD GNDC THIS
WINTER OFFER HIGH WINDS BEFORE THEN PULL BACK...SO WONT UPGRADE HIER
ELEVS /SUCH AS THE NEW SKYLINE DR ZONES/ TO HIGH WIND WARNING JUST
YET...BUT IT IS AN ISSUE THAT WL BE FWDD ON TO DAY SHIFT TO WATCH
CLOSELY.
THE OTHER ISSUE THAT CAA/NW FLOW BRINGS IS UPSLP SHSN. TRAJ AND
DEPTH UNDER INVSN BOTH LOOK GOOD...AND GDNC CRANKING OUT A DECENT PD
OF SNOW MIDDAY...W/ INCRSG RATIOS. HV PUMPED UP TTLS...ENUF TO
TRIGGER ADVYS IN EFFECT TIL 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIPRES BLDG EWD ACRS CWFA TNGT...AND WL BE THE PRIMARY WX INFLUENCE
TUE. TNGT WL MARK THE END OF CAA...W/ THE ADVCTN SIGN REVERSING
DURING THE MRNG TUE. BOTH PDS WL STILL BE COLD THO...W/ MINIMAL CHGS
FM GOING FCST.
ALTHO SKIES WL BE MOCLR TNGT...SUSPECT CONTD WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING TOO FAR. AM ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS...BUT DIDNT UNDERCUT
IT IN THE ABSENCE OF A GOOD RADL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. MAXT TUE WL BE
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 30F ACRS NRN MD/ERN WVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE CWA EXCEPT POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S...FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
CHARLOTTESVILLE-FREDERICKSBURG CORRIDOR MIGHT REACH 50.
MODELS ARE NOT YET IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE 00Z GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. PTYPE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
POINT. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AGAIN.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY KEEPS HIGH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT OVER SRN MD AND THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ARE LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLJ SLIDING E OF TERMINALS THIS MRNG. AS LLWS RMK IN TAFS E OF
BLURDG FOR BGNG OF MRNG PUSH...BUT NOT NEARLY AS SUBSTANTIVE AS THE
OVNGT HRS.
FLGT CONDS HV BEEN MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN PRVSLY PROGGED. HV
RESTRICTIONS ACRS THE BOARD...BUT MAINLY MVFR OUTSIDE OF BWI. STILL
OPPORTUNITY FOR CIGS TO DROP BTWN EXIT ROUND OF PCPN AND BEFORE CFP.
IN TERMS OF PTYPE...TEMPS AT ALL TERMINALS HV WARMED SUFFICIENTLY.
MUCH OF THE PCPN HAS ACTUALLY MVD EAST...BUT MORE WL ARRIVE
COINCIDENT W/ FNT. AT THIS POINT...XPCT ONLY RAIN.
XPCT CFP 12Z MRB...14 OR 15Z ELSW. POST-FROPA...CLDS WL SCATTER OUT
AND WNDS WL VEER NWLY/PICK UP SGFNTLY. SUSTAINED WNDS BHD FNT ARND
20 KT...W/ A FEW GUSTS REACHING 40-45 KT...SPCLY DURING THE AFTN.
THIS WL IMPACT THE AFTN PUSH. SUNSET WL MARK THE BGNG OF THE END AS
THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES. WNDS WONT BE NEALY AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER
MIDNGT.
HIPRES TUE WL MEAN VFR AND LGT WNDS...BACKING SWLY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. S-SW WINDS
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. VFR EXPECTED LATE WEEK. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GNLY LGT WNDS ACRS THE WATERS THIS MRNG AS MIXING POOR. THERE IS A
STRONG LLJ...MUCH OF WHICH ISNT MIXING DOWN. THE SERN SXN OF THE
MARINE AREA PROVING TO BE THE EXCEPTION ATTM.
AS A CDFNT NEARS...PCPN WL END...AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING WL
IMPRV A BIT. HV SCA IN PLACE TO ACCT FOR THIS. THE BIGGER CONCERN WL
BE POST FROPA...WHEN WINDS WL VEER NWLY AND PICK UP SGFNTLY. A LTL
WIGGLE ROOM IN EXACT TIMING...BUT THE PEAK PD WL INCL THE MID AND LT
AFTN HRS...LASTING INTO ELY EVNG. GLW IN PLACE FOR THIS PD...WHEN
MDL SNDGS SUGGEST GUSTS 40-45 KT. WL LKLY NEED SCA/S BYD THAT... BUT
DONT WANT TO CONFUSE ISSUE W/ RAMPING UP AND RAMPING DOWN HAZARDS.
TUE SHUD BE MUCH QUIETER TUE AS HIPRES BLDS. SCA CONDS MAY LINGER
FOR A PORTION OF THAT TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY UNDER S-SW FLOW AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MDZ003-004-501-502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ003>006-502-503-505-507-508.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR VAZ025>031-501-503>505-507-508.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
VAZ036>040-050>057-502-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
503-505.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KCS
AVIATION...HTS/KCS
MARINE...HTS/KCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
606 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NOTED UPSTREAM. THE
FIRST IS TRACKING INTO CNTRL/SRN MN...AND THE SECOND IS OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA. THE FORMER IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF -SN THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI. THE LATTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES
LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. AS FOR ONGOING LES...LES HAS BEEN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DISORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME
DOMINANT BANDS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ONE IN PARTICULAR WAS AFFECTING THE HOUGHTON VCNTY EARLIER TODAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...IMPACTS HAVE
PROBABLY BEEN LIMITED. WITH DAYTIME WEAKENING OF LAND BREEZES AND
LOCALIZED COVERGENCE...THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED.
FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI INTO LWR MI TONIGHT. BASED
ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE NRN EDGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW MAY JUST CLIP SCNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL REACH
NRN MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. IN RESPONSE...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION
LIFTING FROM 4KFT THIS EVENING TO UPWARDS OF 10KFT OR MORE BY 12Z
WED. IN NW UPPER MI...HIGH RES MODELS TEND TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. THIS IS A TYPICAL
LOCATION FOR CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS UNDER SYNOPTIC WNW FLOW DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO WIND AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
WHEN WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THEY WILL BE TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RISING INVERSION/STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE...LES ADVY IS
WARRANTED FOR ONTONAGON/NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE DEPARTS IN THE MORNING...A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING IN THE AFTN. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A
SLOW FALL OF THE INVERSION TO AROUND 6KFT BY LATE AFTN. DGZ WILL
STILL OCCUPY AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE SFC WED AFTN
UNDER CAA REGIME WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO -25 TO -27C BY EVENING.
SO...HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS UPWARDS OF 25 OR MORE TO 1 TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO UNDER 20 TO 1 WED. IN THE END...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES BY WED EVENING WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS
BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS...CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE MUCH GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IF THE
CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONGLY FOCUSED. INCREASING NW WINDS
WED...GUSTING TO 20-30MPH... WILL LEAD TO BLSN AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VIS. MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVY FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO BLSN
ON WED.
TO THE E...FCST IS MUCH MORE CHALLENGING. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY SOLID LOOKING ICE COVER FROM WHITEFISH BAY N TO
MICHIPICOTEN BAY SHOULD LEAD TO A HEALTHY LAND BREEZE PUSHING WELL
OUT INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. END RESULT WILL BE A STRONG CONVERGENCE
ZONE DEVELOPING BTWN THIS WESTWARD PUSHING LAND BREEZE AND THE WNW
WINDS OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. VERY HVY SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
HOW THE SNOW BAND WILL EVOLVE...WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED AND WHETHER
MUCH OF IT WILL IMPACT UPPER MI. STEADY WNW WINDS OF 25-30KT UP AT
850MB DO SUGGEST SOME OF THIS HVY SNOW SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF ERN
ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES ATTM. WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR TONIGHT. ON
WED...STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW WILL OVERCOME THE LAND BREEZE AND PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOW ONSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF WNW MULTI-
BAND LES. WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR ALGER (MAINLY E HALF OF THE
COUNTY) AND LUCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT).
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS)
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE
A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS
AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3
INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS
WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO.
MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE
WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING
ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT
ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT
COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO
MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE
FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS).
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
AT KCMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD UNDER
W TO NW WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DOMINANT SNOW BAND THAT RECENTLY
RESULTED IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT A LITTLE
THIS EVENING. EXPECTATION IS FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...
CONDITIONS COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT TIMES. APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS.
INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO
BLSN.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING UNDER
A W WIND WITH TRAJECTORIES ACROSS LAND. AS WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND
TRAJECTORIES. EXPECT -SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT
KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AND THEN BACK SW AND
STRENGTHEN ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. THE SW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THU
AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15-25KT
OUT OF THE N FOR SAT. WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE
INTO SUN AS THEY VEER EASTERLY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
602 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE
SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO ERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WINDS BACKING
TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE PUSHED THE LES OFFSHORE FROM THE
CWA. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN LES BAND
OFFSHORE FROM THE KEWEENAW BUT WAS LARGELY OBSCURED BY INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...AS SFC TROF BEGINS TO SAG SE ACROSS THE CWA...A MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY DOMINANT LES BAND WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C...CONVECTION/LIFT
THROUGH THE 1K-3K FT DGZ...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AS LES BAND SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE BAND IS LIKELY TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE
ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE LES ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TRANSITION TO MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS
AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NW. OTHERWISE...LES SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
FROM THE ERN CWA UNTIL LATE AS WINDS ONLY VEER FROM WSW TO W.
TUE...280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND -19C. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4K FT WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO WEST
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST...MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS LOCKED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE
AMOUNTS WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY TUESDAY
EVENING...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE
TEMPERATURES (850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -19C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY TO -26C
BY 00Z THURSDAY) WILL HELP STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 5-6KFT TO 10-11KFT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS RISE AND THERE IS ASSISTANCE (MOISTURE/FORCING) FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE TIME OF INTENSIFICATION...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY MULTIBAND
LES ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LAND
BREEZE OFF ONTARIO (AND THE ICE IN THAT AREA OF LAKE SUPERIOR) ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PICTURED ROCKS AND WHITEFISH POINT AND WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE COLD AIR KEEPING MUCH OF THE CLOUD
OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ AND KEEP RATIOS BELOW 20 TO ONE AND AMOUNTS
LIGHTER. BUT WITH THOSE SMALLER FLAKES...IT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS WITH THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS...WILL SHOW A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE SNOW MOVES OFF SHORE OF THE U.P. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SOME OF THE SMALLER DETAILS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF
THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF
THE BEST SNOWFALL...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA. BEHIND THIS WAVE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA) WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND LEAD TO
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -14 AND -22C BY SATURDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION (3-4KFT) WILL LIKELY KEEP THE INTENSITY IN CHECK BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. IF THE WARMER SOLUTION SHOWN
BY THE 12Z GFS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WOULD BE WITHIN THE DGZ
AND LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...WOULD
EXPECT LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NNE FLOW
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
AND DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY REPRIEVE BEING ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS RISE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PRETTY COLD NIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL REALLY BE DIMINISHING AND
EXPECT THAT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN CHECK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO DUE
TO THE COLD FACTOR...BUT WITH WINDS LIKELY BEING BELOW 10MPH WE
SHOULDN/T NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH
FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT
BOTH KIWD AND KSAW WITH SOME LIGHT LES EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE
TONIGHT.
AT KCMX...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT
IFR VSBYS TO RETURN AS A DOMINANT LES BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THE DOMINANT
LES BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY...
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEST WIND GUSTS OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...OTHER EXPECT WINDS AT OR BLO 30
KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND ERN LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES ON WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON LATE FRIDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE
SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH NW MN INTO ERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WINDS BACKING
TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE PUSHED THE LES OFFSHORE FROM THE
CWA. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN LES BAND
OFFSHORE FROM THE KEWEENAW BUT WAS LARGELY OBSCURED BY INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...AS SFC TROF BEGINS TO SAG SE ACROSS THE CWA...A MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY DOMINANT LES BAND WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -19C...CONVECTION/LIFT
THROUGH THE 1K-3K FT DGZ...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AS LES BAND SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE BAND IS LIKELY TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE
ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE LES ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. EXPECT THE SNOW
TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TRANSITION TO MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS
AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NW. OTHERWISE...LES SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
FROM THE ERN CWA UNTIL LATE AS WINDS ONLY VEER FROM WSW TO W.
TUE...280-290 FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND -19C. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4K FT WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO WEST
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST...MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS LOCKED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE
AMOUNTS WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY TUESDAY
EVENING...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE
TEMPERATURES (850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -19C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY TO -26C
BY 00Z THURSDAY) WILL HELP STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 5-6KFT TO 10-11KFT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS RISE AND THERE IS ASSISTANCE (MOISTURE/FORCING) FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE TIME OF INTENSIFICATION...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY MULTIBAND
LES ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LAND
BREEZE OFF ONTARIO (AND THE ICE IN THAT AREA OF LAKE SUPERIOR) ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PICTURED ROCKS AND WHITEFISH POINT AND WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE COLD AIR KEEPING MUCH OF THE CLOUD
OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ AND KEEP RATIOS BELOW 20 TO ONE AND AMOUNTS
LIGHTER. BUT WITH THOSE SMALLER FLAKES...IT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS WITH THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS...WILL SHOW A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE SNOW MOVES OFF SHORE OF THE U.P. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SOME OF THE SMALLER DETAILS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF
THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF
THE BEST SNOWFALL...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA. BEHIND THIS WAVE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA) WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND LEAD TO
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -14 AND -22C BY SATURDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION (3-4KFT) WILL LIKELY KEEP THE INTENSITY IN CHECK BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. IF THE WARMER SOLUTION SHOWN
BY THE 12Z GFS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WOULD BE WITHIN THE DGZ
AND LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...WOULD
EXPECT LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NNE FLOW
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
AND DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY REPRIEVE BEING ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS RISE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PRETTY COLD NIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL REALLY BE DIMINISHING AND
EXPECT THAT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN CHECK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO DUE
TO THE COLD FACTOR...BUT WITH WINDS LIKELY BEING BELOW 10MPH WE
SHOULDN/T NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH
FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT
BOTH KIWD AND KSAW WITH SOME LIGHT LES EXPECTED AT KIWD.
AT KCMX...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. OCNL IFR
VSBY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO
THE SW TO PUSH THE LES BANDS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO RETURN AS A
DOMINANT LES BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THE DOMINANT LES BAND MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY...
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEST WIND GUSTS OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...OTHER EXPECT WINDS AT OR BLO 30
KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND ERN LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES ON WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON LATE FRIDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES OVER THE KEWEENAW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO ERN CANADA
RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A DRY NRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A 996 MB LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINGERING LES OVER ERN
MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND
-21C PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERSISTENT LES. HOWEVER...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 3K FT AND THE DGZ NEAR LAKE SFC
LES ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A RANGE FROM 1 TO
POSSIBLY 3 INCHES THIS MORNING.
TODAY...EXPECT LINGERING LES FOR NCNTRL ZONES TO BE PUSHED OFFSHORE
AS FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NRN MN AND THE
HIGH PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 10-15F RANGE. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE DAY
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH OVER NRN MN
DROPS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE DEEPENING TO 10 KFT SHOULD LEAD
TO DOMINANT LES BAND FORMING OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE
TODAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS SFC TROF BEGINS TO SAG SE ACROSS THE CWA...MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY DOMINANT LES BAND WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -20C...STEEPENING 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LIFT/OMEGA THROUGH THE DGZ...EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AS LES BAND
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WILL
BLOW/DRIFT SNOW AS WELL. GIVEN ABOVE FAVORABLE FACTORS FELT THAT LES
ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED FOR OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE MULTIBAND
AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. LOOK
FOR 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY WITH 3-5
INCHES OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THAN SCT LES OVER
THE FAR WEST...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP REST OF LES OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS LOCKED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA AND
KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER BRUSHING SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY ON TUESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE
AMOUNTS WON/T BE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT INITIALLY TUESDAY
EVENING...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE
TEMPERATURES (850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -19C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY TO -26C
BY 00Z THURSDAY) WILL HELP STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOW THE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 5-6KFT TO 10-11KFT.
THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION
HEIGHTS RISE AND THERE IS ASSISTANCE (MOISTURE/FORCING) FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE TIME OF INTENSIFICATION...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY MULTIBAND
LES ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LAND
BREEZE OFF ONTARIO (AND THE ICE IN THAT AREA OF LAKE SUPERIOR) ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PICTURED ROCKS AND WHITEFISH POINT AND WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE COLD AIR KEEPING MUCH OF THE CLOUD
OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ AND KEEP RATIOS BELOW 20 TO ONE AND AMOUNTS
LIGHTER. BUT WITH THOSE SMALLER FLAKES...IT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS WITH THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUS...WILL SHOW A WEST TO
EAST DIMINISHING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE SNOW MOVES OFF SHORE OF THE U.P. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SOME OF THE SMALLER DETAILS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF
THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF
THE BEST SNOWFALL...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA. BEHIND THIS WAVE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA) WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AND LEAD TO
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -14 AND -22C BY SATURDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION (3-4KFT) WILL LIKELY KEEP THE INTENSITY IN CHECK BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. IF THE WARMER SOLUTION SHOWN
BY THE 12Z GFS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WOULD BE WITHIN THE DGZ
AND LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...WOULD
EXPECT LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NNE FLOW
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
AND DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY REPRIEVE BEING ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS RISE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PRETTY COLD NIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL REALLY BE DIMINISHING AND
EXPECT THAT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN CHECK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO DUE
TO THE COLD FACTOR...BUT WITH WINDS LIKELY BEING BELOW 10MPH WE
SHOULDN/T NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH
FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT
BOTH KIWD AND KSAW WITH SOME LIGHT LES EXPECTED AT KIWD.
AT KCMX...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. OCNL IFR
VSBY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO
THE SW TO PUSH THE LES BANDS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO RETURN AS A
DOMINANT LES BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THE DOMINANT LES BAND MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY...
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEST WIND GUSTS OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...OTHER EXPECT WINDS AT OR BLO 30
KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND ERN LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES ON WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON LATE FRIDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
635 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES OVER THE KEWEENAW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO ERN CANADA
RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A DRY NRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A 996 MB LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINGERING LES OVER ERN
MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND
-21C PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERSISTENT LES. HOWEVER...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 3K FT AND THE DGZ NEAR LAKE SFC
LES ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A RANGE FROM 1 TO
POSSIBLY 3 INCHES THIS MORNING.
TODAY...EXPECT LINGERING LES FOR NCNTRL ZONES TO BE PUSHED OFFSHORE
AS FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NRN MN AND THE
HIGH PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 10-15F RANGE. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE DAY
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH OVER NRN MN
DROPS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE DEEPENING TO 10 KFT SHOULD LEAD
TO DOMINANT LES BAND FORMING OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE
TODAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS SFC TROF BEGINS TO SAG SE ACROSS THE CWA...MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY DOMINANT LES BAND WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -20C...STEEPENING 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LIFT/OMEGA THROUGH THE DGZ...EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AS LES BAND
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WILL
BLOW/DRIFT SNOW AS WELL. GIVEN ABOVE FAVORABLE FACTORS FELT THAT LES
ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED FOR OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE MULTIBAND
AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. LOOK
FOR 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY WITH 3-5
INCHES OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THAN SCT LES OVER
THE FAR WEST...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP REST OF LES OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES TUE INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -20C. EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS FROM 12Z TUE TO 06Z WED.
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM IS LARGELY WITH LES AND ASSOCIATED
HAZARDS LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SHOWN BY MAJORITY OF
MODELS TO STAY S OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES BRING ENERGY AND
RESULTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER MOST OF UPPER MI TUE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. THE TRAILING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AS
LOW AS -28C IN THE NW FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE 11KFT UNDER THE THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS...POINTING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY LES IN THE NW WIND
SNOWBELTS. DENDRITE SIZE SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIRMASS PUTTING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER COLDER THAN
-20C. WHILE THE SMALL FLAKES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...THE
THREAT OF LOW VIS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL. DO EXPECT LOCALLY VERY POOR CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE FRONT PASSES LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AS
WELL. THE LES WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH 0.30-0.35 INCHES IN THE NW WINDS SNOWBELTS...WHICH LEADS TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION EVENT IN HWO THOUGH A HEADLINE WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
WARMER TEMPS AND SW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE LAND FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF THU AND
THU NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE OF A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS DETAILS WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW AS
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH FM NW OF LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW WITH SOME LIGHT LES
EXPECTED AT KIWD.
AT KCMX...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PD.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT IFR
VSBYS IN SNOW AS A DOMINANT LES BAND SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE NW AND THE DOMINANT LES BAND SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY...
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEST WIND GUSTS OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...OTHER EXPECT WINDS AT OR BLO 30
KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND ERN LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES ON WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON LATE FRIDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY LES OVER THE KEWEENAW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO ERN CANADA
RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A DRY NRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A 996 MB LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINGERING LES OVER ERN
MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 900 MB TEMPS AROUND
-21C PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERSISTENT LES. HOWEVER...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 3K FT AND THE DGZ NEAR LAKE SFC
LES ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A RANGE FROM 1 TO
POSSIBLY 3 INCHES THIS MORNING.
TODAY...EXPECT LINGERING LES FOR NCNTRL ZONES TO BE PUSHED OFFSHORE
AS FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NRN MN AND THE
HIGH PRES SHIFTING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 10-15F RANGE. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE DAY
LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TIP OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH OVER NRN MN
DROPS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE DEEPENING TO 10 KFT SHOULD LEAD
TO DOMINANT LES BAND FORMING OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW LATE
TODAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS SFC TROF BEGINS TO SAG SE ACROSS THE CWA...MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY DOMINANT LES BAND WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -20C...STEEPENING 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LIFT/OMEGA THROUGH THE DGZ...EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR AS LES BAND
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WILL
BLOW/DRIFT SNOW AS WELL. GIVEN ABOVE FAVORABLE FACTORS FELT THAT LES
ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED FOR OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE MULTIBAND
AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. LOOK
FOR 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY WITH 3-5
INCHES OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THAN SCT LES OVER
THE FAR WEST...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP REST OF LES OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES TUE INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -20C. EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS FROM 12Z TUE TO 06Z WED.
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM IS LARGELY WITH LES AND ASSOCIATED
HAZARDS LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SHOWN BY MAJORITY OF
MODELS TO STAY S OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES BRING ENERGY AND
RESULTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER MOST OF UPPER MI TUE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. THE TRAILING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AS
LOW AS -28C IN THE NW FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE 11KFT UNDER THE THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS...POINTING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY LES IN THE NW WIND
SNOWBELTS. DENDRITE SIZE SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIRMASS PUTTING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER COLDER THAN
-20C. WHILE THE SMALL FLAKES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...THE
THREAT OF LOW VIS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL. DO EXPECT LOCALLY VERY POOR CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE FRONT PASSES LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AS
WELL. THE LES WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH 0.30-0.35 INCHES IN THE NW WINDS SNOWBELTS...WHICH LEADS TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION EVENT IN HWO THOUGH A HEADLINE WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
WARMER TEMPS AND SW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE LAND FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF THU AND
THU NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE OF A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS DETAILS WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT SAW AND CMX
OVERNIGHT IN A N FLOW. IWD WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE
SNOW SHOWERS. IWD AND SAW WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD GO VFR MON
MORNING WHILE CMX STAYS IN THE LAKE EFFECT MVFR CATEGORY CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY...
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEST WIND GUSTS OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...OTHER EXPECT WINDS AT OR BLO 30
KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND ERN LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES ON WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON LATE FRIDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO ERN CANADA
RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. TO THE
SOUTH...A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NRN IL WAS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
FROM IA INTO THE SRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...DRY NE FLOW PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN A 1036 MB HIGH OVER ERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND A 1003 MB LOW OVER ERN IL. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -22C
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERSISTENT LES. HOWEVER...INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FT AND A DGZ BELOW 1K FT HAS LIMITED INTENSITY AND
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO NRLY AS THE IL LOW
MOVES TO THE E AND THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH A
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELD...LAND BREEZE EFFECTS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED CIRCULATIONS OR AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. THE HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BAND MAY
DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT FAR ERN OR WRN ALGER COUNTY TONIGHT.
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 3K FT SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO A FEW INCHES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORELINE PARALLEL
BAND NEAR THE WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE IT MAY AFFECT THE
SHORELINE IS LOW.
BESIDES THE LES...TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE WI BORDER OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
FORTUNATELY...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LAKE MODERATION/LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...NOT REACHING ADVY CRITERIA.
MON...SOME LINGERING LES IN THE N TO NW SNOWBELTS AS 900 MB TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND -22C WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER NRN MN INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE
OH VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 10-15F RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES TUE INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -20C. EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS FROM 12Z TUE TO 06Z WED.
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM IS LARGELY WITH LES AND ASSOCIATED
HAZARDS LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SHOWN BY MAJORITY OF
MODELS TO STAY S OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES BRING ENERGY AND
RESULTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER MOST OF UPPER MI TUE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. THE TRAILING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AS
LOW AS -28C IN THE NW FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE 11KFT UNDER THE THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS...POINTING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY LES IN THE NW WIND
SNOWBELTS. DENDRITE SIZE SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIRMASS PUTTING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER COLDER THAN
-20C. WHILE THE SMALL FLAKES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...THE
THREAT OF LOW VIS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL. DO EXPECT LOCALLY VERY POOR CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE FRONT PASSES LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AS
WELL. THE LES WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH 0.30-0.35 INCHES IN THE NW WINDS SNOWBELTS...WHICH LEADS TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION EVENT IN HWO THOUGH A HEADLINE WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
WARMER TEMPS AND SW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE LAND FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF THU AND
THU NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE OF A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS DETAILS WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT SAW AND CMX
OVERNIGHT IN A N FLOW. IWD WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE
SNOW SHOWERS. IWD AND SAW WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD GO VFR MON
MORNING WHILE CMX STAYS IN THE LAKE EFFECT MVFR CATEGORY CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER
PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW
WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES IN GUSTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD
STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM NRN HUDSON BAY INTO ERN CANADA
RESULTING IN WNW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. TO THE
SOUTH...A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH INTO NRN IL WAS BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
FROM IA INTO THE SRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...DRY NE FLOW PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN A 1036 MB HIGH OVER ERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND A 1003 MB LOW OVER ERN IL. 900 MB TEMPS AROUND -22C
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERSISTENT LES. HOWEVER...INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FT AND A DGZ BELOW 1K FT HAS LIMITED INTENSITY AND
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO NRLY AS THE IL LOW
MOVES TO THE E AND THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH A
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELD...LAND BREEZE EFFECTS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED CIRCULATIONS OR AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. THE HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BAND MAY
DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT FAR ERN OR WRN ALGER COUNTY TONIGHT.
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 3K FT SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO A FEW INCHES. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORELINE PARALLEL
BAND NEAR THE WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE IT MAY AFFECT THE
SHORELINE IS LOW.
BESIDES THE LES...TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE WI BORDER OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
FORTUNATELY...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LAKE MODERATION/LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -10 TO -20
RANGE...NOT REACHING ADVY CRITERIA.
MON...SOME LINGERING LES IN THE N TO NW SNOWBELTS AS 900 MB TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND -22C WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER NRN MN INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE
OH VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 10-15F RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
COLD CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS
RIDGING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE BERING SEA TO THE WESTERN CONUS
ALLOWS TROUGHING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FM EASTERN CANADA.
RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUGGESTING
THAT TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK TOWARD NORMAL OR MAYBE ABOVE BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR A COUPLE DAYS WILL STAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BUT OTHERWISE WILL BE IN THE TEENS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. MAY HAVE
TO DEAL WITH WIND CHILL ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
COLDEST DAYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CORE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
H85 TEMPS BLO -25C SWEEPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD SNOW
CHANCES STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. FOR LAST COUPLE
DAYS...PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS OF ECMWF/GFS AND GEM-NH ALONG WITH GFS
ENSEMBLES HAVE HINTED AT BETTER SHOT OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
LAKES REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT THOUGH AS MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS LACKING.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPP RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
BE APPROACHING LK SUPERIOR FM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WEAK SHORTWAVE/PV
ANAMOLY SLIDES THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS EVEN INLAND SHOW MARGINAL DEEP
MOISTENING H8-H5 WITH WEAK LIFT. LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOST AREAS
LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BIGGER IMPACT MAY OCCUR
OVER NORTHERN KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS BAND OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY LES COULD BE ONGOING. LIFT FM THE DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH H85
TEMPS NEAR -20C YIELDS 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES OVER 9C/KM WHERE
STRONGER CONVERGENCE COMES TOGETHER. LOCAL HIRES WRF MODEL SEEMS
REASONABLE SHOWING OVER 0.05 INCH OF QPF PER HOUR IN HEAVIER
BANDING. SO WITH SLR/S OVER 20:1...COULD BE OVER 1 INCH OF SNOW PER
HOUR...WHICH FITS THIS TYPE OF LES REGIME. DOES APPEAR THAT WITH
ARRIVAL OF TROUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL NOT LAST PROBABLY MORE THAN
A FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH WILL BLOW/DRIFT SNOW AS WELL.
OVERALL...SEEMS LIKE MODELS/PATTERN RECOGNITION POINTS TO ADVY FOR
TIP OF KEWEENAW MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE LES SINKS ACROSS REST OF
KEWEENAW AND BECOMES MORE MULTIBAND IN TYPE. CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO.
ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND LARGER SCALE FORCING EVADES...EXPECT NW FLOW LES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW INVERSIONS BLO 4KFT AND NEUTRAL TO ANTICYLONIC
FLOW WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF LES DESPITE ALL OF THE CLOUD BEING
WITHIN THE DGZ. FLUFFY ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT LOW IMPACT AS WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SPREADS LGT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM FARTHER NORTH WITH THE QPF
COMPARED TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF/GFS AND GEM-NH. WILL SHOOT FOR
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AWAY FM THE LK SUPERIOR LES.
PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO LAKE EFFECT AND
BLSN/DRSN THAT RAMPS UP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS IS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO AT LEAST 8KFT AND LAKE
EQL OVER 10KFT POINT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DUE TO DEPTH OF COLD
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CONVECTIVE LAYER
WILL BE AT TEMPS BLO -20C. SO...LOOKING AT SMALL SNOW FLAKES GOOD AT
REDUCING VSBY...BUT NOT PILING UP A LOT OF SNOW. WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER 25-30 KTS...SO BLSN/DRSN WILL BE PREVALENT WITH THE FINE SNOW
FLAKES. EXPECT THERE WILL NEED TO BE SOME WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AWAY FM THE LES AND BLSN/DRSN...APPEARS CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST
INTERIOR WEST WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT READINGS 20 TO 25 BLO
ZERO WHICH IS CLOSE TO...BUT NOT QUITE REACHING CRITERIA OF 25 TO 35
BLO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO...BUT IS NOT APPEARING
TO BE AN OVERWHELMING LOW WIND CHILL EVENT.
ANOTHER TROUGH...REALLY MORE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT...SLIDES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND LK SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS BACKING SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN LOW-LEVELS WILL PUSH
LES OVER LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE TOO MUCH WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO RESULT IN LES OFF LK MICHIGAN FM KISQ TO KERY. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK LIFT MAY SQUEEZE OUT LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CONSISTENCY NOT THERE YET FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WILL RUN WITH
FORECAST CONSENSUS ATTM. BEST CHANCES OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW PROBABLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT ON SATURDAY. FRONT
WILL BE IN THE VCNTY AND LATEST INDICATIONS FM MODELS AND HAND DRAWN
PROG FM WPC SHOWS IT MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR LES IN AN EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT SAW AND CMX
OVERNIGHT IN A N FLOW. IWD WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE
SNOW SHOWERS. IWD AND SAW WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD GO VFR MON
MORNING WHILE CMX STAYS IN THE LAKE EFFECT MVFR CATEGORY CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY.
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER
PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW
WINDS COULD REACH LOW-END GALES IN GUSTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS BACK SW ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT CROSSES ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD
STAY AT OR BLO 30 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
1140 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
.UPDATE...AREA RADARS SHOWS THE LAST OF THE RAINS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISS. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL 09Z. SO HAVE
EXTENDED AND LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK./17/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
FROM NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE AND AND THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DECENT FORCING
COMBINED WITH MU CAPES OF AROUND 200-500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
60KTS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES SO EXPECT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL TO BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS WITH STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A LIMITED RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY IN THE HWO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING WITH
SOME LIGHT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
AND TEMPS DROP. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND RADIATIONAL COOLING PREVAILS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
20S. LITTLE WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...BUT THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA AND CURRENTLY THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20 DURING THE AFTERNOON SPREADING NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF/GEM ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF. EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING WITH IT LIGHT SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR. THE ECMWF SUGGEST POSSIBLY A MIXED BAG OF SNOW AND RAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WITH THE TIMING OF IT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW AND KEEP THE PRECIP LIQUID. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY./15/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN THE 2 TO 4 KFT
(OCCASIONALLY MVFR) RANGE AT MOST TAF SITES UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AFTER THAT POINT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
LATER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW SHOULD LIGHTEN UP SOME HEADING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND THEN TREND MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE HEADED INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN MS
WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 34 42 26 53 / 25 6 0 2
MERIDIAN 35 46 25 54 / 68 9 0 3
VICKSBURG 32 43 24 54 / 8 5 0 2
HATTIESBURG 37 50 26 56 / 83 7 0 3
NATCHEZ 32 42 26 53 / 27 5 0 3
GREENVILLE 31 40 26 51 / 9 7 0 2
GREENWOOD 31 40 24 51 / 10 10 0 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
324 PM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD DEALS WITH
THE EFFECTS FROM THE NEXT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP...BUT SOME OF THE SMALLER-SCALE ISSUES WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ARE EXACTLY WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS SET UP. COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1 OR 3 INCHES
OF SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
FOR EXAMPLE...00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT GFS AND NAM SHOW A NORTHERN
ZONES BAND OF SNOW AND A SW ZONES BAND OF MIXED PRECIP. THE EC ON
THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE HRRR PLACES A BAND OF SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...GFS PAINTS A HEFTY WIDESPREAD ALMOST MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR CENTRAL CWA WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE
HEAVIER SNOW OVER OUR FAR EASTERN AND SW ZONES.
AFTER TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL HAVE
EASED TO MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL QUICKLY
AND EFFECTIVELY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK...DECIDED TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING QUITE A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STRONGER THAN USUALLY EXPECTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
WINDS THROUGHOUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT IF ANY AT
ALL. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST CHANGES
MADE...BASED OFF THE 12Z EXTENDED MODELS...WAS TO GO CONSERVATIVE
WITH THE WARM UP FOR LATE INTO THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WITH RECENT SNOW COVER...WARMING WILL BE HINDERED
BY A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS TRENDED DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. ALSO TRENDED UP POPS
FOR EXPECTED MIXED PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO MONTANA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW WEAKENING AND PACIFIC UPPER
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH THE OPENING UP OF
FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INSTEAD OF OUT OF THE ARCTIC...WARM AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE DIVIDE SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
NEW SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARMING SLIGHTLY BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL AID THE MIXING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE
MOST SUBSTANTIAL ONE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
MODEL SPREAD LARGE ENOUGH FOR UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN DURING THE
WEEKEND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES PROFILES
SUGGEST A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES POSSIBLE WITH THE CRITICAL THERMAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER A BIT TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS OR
AIRPORT MINIMUMS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
952 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY ENDED ON THE GLASGOW RADAR DURING
THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND EXTRAPOLATING THAT TREND DOWNSTREAM INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MT SUGGESTS OUR FORECAST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY
ABOUT NOON IS ON TRACK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
ACTIVITY IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THOUGH AND THAT HAS
ALLOWED COLD AIR ADVECTION TO ALREADY BEGIN AND A SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE TO PUSH WEST ALL THE WAY TO BILLINGS...WHERE
WINDS HAVE TURNED EASTERLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WE ACTUALLY
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TODAY FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT USING THE 12 UTC GFS AND NAM MOS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS UPDATE...ISSUED AT 800 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015...
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE UP TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WITH 60 TO 70 PERCENT POPS IN SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS
MORNING. THAT WAS IN RESPONSE TO RECENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE LIGHT...AND THE SNOW LOOKS TO
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THAN CONTINUOUS...WHICH IS WHY WE CHOSE
TO KEEP POPS CAPPED AROUND 70 PERCENT EVEN THOUGH IT IS SNOWING AT
MILES CITY AND BAKER AS OF 15 UTC. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA HAS ALLOWED A
WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RISING OR STEADY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS ENERGY DIVES INTO THE DAKOTAS
IT WILL LEAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOLER AIR OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND AN AREA OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WHERE FLOW ALOFT IS
MIXING DOWN CREATING DOWNSLOPE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BUT WILL DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT RISES BRING SOME SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL REBOUND TODAY INTO THE 40S WITH
WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BUT EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT
FROM THEIR PEAKS EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONGER SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT THE
SURFACE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE SO THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL LAY
ALONG A HARLOWTON TO GILLETTE AXIS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES BUT ENOUGH ENERGY GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN WYOMING TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
GIVEN THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA
TO BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY THE JET ENERGY STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOTHER JET PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SUBSIDENT ZONE OF THE FIRST JET OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA ALLOWS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AND BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD WHICH
PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AND ALLOWS SOME
FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS PROCESS
WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE BILLINGS AREA LATER ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND HAVE THE SUPPORT OF UPSLOPE. HOWEVER...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF CONFLUENT FLOW AT 500MB SO LIFT
IS NOT VERY DEEP AND SHORT LIVED ONCE THE BOUNDARY KEEPS MOVING
SOUTH. SHOULD SEE A BAND OF 2 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SUPPORT COLDER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE MOST PART..WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH 850MB
TEMPS FROM -12C TO -18C OVER THE CWA. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO PUSH COLD AIR OUT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH LOW 30S. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON HOW LONG SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEGINNING THE WARMING TREND THURSDAY. THE BROAD RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...WITH
PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE...THEY APPEAR TO BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE FOR THE PLAINS...WITH PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR ANY PRECIP. THAT BEING SAID...THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS STILL
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE PLAINS...BUT
MAINLY EAST OF KBIL...AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS TO LIMIT ANY
DEVELOP IN WESTERN PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS REGIONS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...ESPECIALLY FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SEEMS TO POINT TO STRONGEST WINDS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXITING
THAT AREA. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO AREAS E OF KBIL THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST ROUTES...INCLUDING KBHK AND KMLS...LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW.
EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KBIL AND KSHR
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AAG/CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 029/040 013/031 028/051 037/060 041/060 038/055
1/B 13/W 72/J 10/B 01/N 11/N 11/N
LVM 049 034/047 019/039 031/055 038/061 044/059 038/058
1/N 22/W 74/W 22/W 11/N 23/W 11/N
HDN 039 024/036 007/027 020/050 030/056 038/057 032/055
2/J 24/J 62/J 10/B 01/B 11/N 11/B
MLS 028 017/026 003/023 014/045 027/053 037/056 032/054
6/J 56/J 41/B 11/B 01/B 12/W 11/B
4BQ 037 022/036 009/027 021/050 030/059 040/058 034/055
4/J 24/J 51/B 10/B 01/B 12/W 11/B
BHK 026 013/024 901/020 014/044 026/048 033/049 032/049
7/J 44/J 21/B 10/B 11/B 12/W 11/B
SHR 041 024/042 013/029 022/050 029/061 035/058 029/054
1/B 12/W 73/J 10/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NEAR OMAHA. THIS FEATURE
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX. A CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ILLINOIS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A NICE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS
HAS LED TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TDY...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
FROM NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE. FURTHER WEST...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
RELAX SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE PANHANDLE. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO ARNOLD
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...READINGS AS OF 3 PM CST...RANGED FROM 4 ABOVE AT AINSWORTH
AND ONEILL...TO 14 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
A LITTLE WORK 0N THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TOWARD MESONET
REPORTS PRODUCES AN AREA OF -20 TO -30 WIND CHILL READINGS
TONIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
WIND SPEEDS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE ON THE WAY DOWN TOWARD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 02Z. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WE WILL
BE WATCHING HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES TUMBLE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FORECAST TONIGHT IS CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE WINDS BEGIN
TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AFTER SUNSET...AS WE DECOUPLE.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING...AND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME
LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER STILL HAVING A FEW REPORTS OF
VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY UNCHANGED
THROUGH 00Z. ON TOP OF THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IS THE CAA TAKING
PLACE. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SW
ZONES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER N CENTRAL...WHICH IS WERE TEMPS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TEMPS ARE
PUSHING WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -15 TO -20 DEGREES. THIS IS
APPROACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE THE WSW FOR
SNOW/BLSN AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE CONCERN IS AS THE SNOW ENDS EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR. 1035MB HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
FRESH SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO PRODUCE AN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY TANK
AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND CHILLS COULD FALL/CONTINUE IN ADVISORY
CATEGORY AFTER THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPIRES...BUT WILL KEEP IT
SIMPLE AND ONLY HAVE ONE HEADLINE GOING FOR NOW AND LET THE EVENING
SHIFT MODIFY. AS FOR LOWS...DROPPED BELOW COLDEST MET GUIDANCE AS
TYPICAL FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. MODELS
SHIFT THE HIGH SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WAA BEGINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON THE INCREASE. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SNOW PACK AIDING IN A
DECOUPLED BL VERSES RISING TEMPS WITH THE WAA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE TREND AND BOTTOMED TEMPS AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS
TOWARDS MORNING. THIS RAISED ANOTHER CONCERN ABOUT THE LENGTH NEEDED
FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
TOMORROW WAA ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO OR
ABOVE 0C FOR NEARLY ALL BY 18Z. SW NEB PUSHES TOWARDS 5C BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW PACK WILL LIMIT MIXING...ALTHOUGH WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPING. DECIDED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE OVER ALL BUT
THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND KEPT
TEMPS AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE MID
RANGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDWEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE FORECAST AREA. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE MAIN ENERGY WITH
THIS IMPULSE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INVOF THE ARCTIC FRONT...ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE...WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK LIFT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING HAVE A THERMAL PROFILE...INDICATIVE
OF LIGHT FREEZING PCPN/ALTERNATING WITH LIGHT SNOW. BASED ON THESE
FACTORS...DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FZ RAIN
IN THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING INVOF THE FRONT. AS FOR LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE SNOW COVER PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. FOR
TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL VARY WIDELY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S
INVOF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE
AN AREA OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL TRAIL THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PCPN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
THIS MORNING WERE ABOUT 6 HRS APART WITH THEIR FRONTAL TIMING. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE NAM IS 6 HRS SLOWER.
FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING...DECIDED TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM SOLNS FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING AND RESULTANT ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING TO THE FAR NORTHWEST. FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH
40 TO 50 POPS RETAINED WEDNESDAY. WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS CLEARING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS WILL BE EARLY WITH FALLING TEMPS
THEREAFTER. FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO PTYPES...DECIDED TO INSERT A
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
AS CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING A SMALL WINDOW OF WARMER AIR
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM -4 IN THE EAST...TO AROUND 10 IN THE
WEST. READINGS COLD BE COLDER...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH IS SLOWER TO
MOVE OUT WEDS EVENING. BY THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 30S THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
40S AND 50S FRIDAY...AND 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AT
02.05Z WHICH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH PASSES BUT WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
02.12Z. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES FOR THE AFTERNOON...LOOKING AT
WINDS INCREASING WHICH WITH THEN FALL BACK BELOW 12KTS AROUND
SUNSET. IN GENERAL...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE IS
A SUGGESTION FROM ONE MODEL FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER
/MVFR/ STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG A SHALLOW
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH YET TO
LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY SO JUST LOWERED CEILINGS TO 4K FEET UP
AT KVTN AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NEZ004>010-023>029-038-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NY AND PA FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
205 PM UPDATE...
WE WILL DROP THE REMAINING WARNINGS SHORTLY, COINCIDENT WITH
RAISING A NEW FLAG FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OVER MUCH OF THE FA
FOR OVERNIGHT.
MOS GUIDANCE AND RUC/HRRR TEMPS GETTING COLDER AND COLDER FOR
TONIGHT, PERHAPS CATCHING ON TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED OVER LOWER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE SOUTH, TO -15F
OVER NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. COMBINED WITH 6 TO 10 MPH WINDS,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -15F TO -20F.
1145 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED ANOTHER BLOCK OF COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE WARNING OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTH. A FEW MODERATE SNOW
BANDS HAVE YET TO CLEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, WHILE THE NORTH MAY
STILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
1040 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE WARNING. RADAR
SHOWS THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS REGION,
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
NY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FIZZLE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE MAY DROP ANOTHER BLOCK OF COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL ALLOW THE MODERATE BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION TO CLEAR THE AREA
FIRST.
430 AM UPDATE...
AT 430 AM SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA. LOCAL
RADARS/OBS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE REGION FROM WRN
PA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS JET DYNAMICS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES EAST OF FA. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA THEN OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
FGEN FORCING IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS MAY KEEP OCCASIONAL HEAVY
SNOW HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET/FZRA BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA. OBS IN THE STATE COLLEGE AREA ARE ALREADY
INDICATING THIS TYPE OF PRECIP. THE ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW BY MID/LATE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS IN GENERAL WILL RANGE
FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA AND 5 TO
8 IN THE FAR SE WITH SOME LIGHT ICING. ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON STRONG NW WINDS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. PARTS OF THE ERN CWA MAY REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT CONSIDER THIS
FLAG. NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION NORTH ACROSS THE
SYR AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL BY DAYBREAK. LOW INVERSION, SFC
RIDGING AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A PRECIP FREE DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE
NORMALLY WARMER AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SRN TIER
APPROACHING 20.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID WEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WED
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO CENTRAL
NY PRIMARILY LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND CHC ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ON WED TEMPS WILL MODERATE
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC TROF.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS SFC LOW CONTINUES LIFTING OFF TO THE NE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. POPULATED WITH CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE. WEAK SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF REGION WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO ADD TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C
T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS
FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE
RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FINISHING UP OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. ARCTIC FRONT NOW IN PROGRESS OF SWITCHING WINDS TO A
GUSTY NNW /PEAK GUSTS 24-29 KTS KITH-KBGM-KELM-KAVP THIS
AFTERNOON/...AS STEADY SNOW IS REPLACED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VIS AND FUEL ALT
REQ MVFR CIG /IFR CIG AT TIMES KBGM-KITH/. TONIGHT...VERY COLD
YET DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT...YET WITH FLOW DOWN
CAYUGA LAKE...IFR -SN WILL PERSIST INTO EVENING. FLOW TO BACK MORE
WESTERLY OR EVEN WSW INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING ANY REMAINING
CIGS TO SCT OUT FOR KBGM-KITH-KAVP-KELM...BUT KSYR-KRME WILL
BECOME PRONE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AFTN-EVE...MAINLY VFR.
LATE TUE NGT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR.
SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
016>018-036-037-045-046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION TODAY, BITTERLY COLD AIR
WILL MOVE INTO NY AND PA FOR TONIGHT. A WEAKER STORM WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER
AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED ANOTHER BLOCK OF COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE WARNING OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTH. A FEW MODERATE SNOW
BANDS HAVE YET TO CLEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, WHILE THE NORTH MAY
STILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
1040 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE WARNING. RADAR
SHOWS THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS REGION,
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
NY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FIZZLE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE MAY DROP ANOTHER BLOCK OF COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL ALLOW THE MODERATE BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION TO CLEAR THE AREA
FIRST.
430 AM UPDATE...
AT 430 AM SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA. LOCAL
RADARS/OBS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE REGION FROM WRN
PA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS JET DYNAMICS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES EAST OF FA. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA THEN OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
FGEN FORCING IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS MAY KEEP OCCASIONAL HEAVY
SNOW HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET/FZRA BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA. OBS IN THE STATE COLLEGE AREA ARE ALREADY
INDICATING THIS TYPE OF PRECIP. THE ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW BY MID/LATE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS IN GENERAL WILL RANGE
FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA AND 5 TO
8 IN THE FAR SE WITH SOME LIGHT ICING. ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON STRONG NW WINDS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. PARTS OF THE ERN CWA MAY REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT CONSIDER THIS
FLAG. NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION NORTH ACROSS THE
SYR AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL BY DAYBREAK. LOW INVERSION, SFC
RIDGING AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A PRECIP FREE DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE
NORMALLY WARMER AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SRN TIER
APPROACHING 20.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID WEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WED
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO CENTRAL
NY PRIMARILY LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND CHC ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ON WED TEMPS WILL MODERATE
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC TROF.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS SFC LOW CONTINUES LIFTING OFF TO THE NE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. POPULATED WITH CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE. WEAK SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF REGION WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO ADD TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C
T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS
FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE
RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FINISHING UP OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. ARCTIC FRONT NOW IN PROGRESS OF SWITCHING WINDS TO A
GUSTY NNW /PEAK GUSTS 24-29 KTS KITH-KBGM-KELM-KAVP THIS
AFTERNOON/...AS STEADY SNOW IS REPLACED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VIS AND FUEL ALT
REQ MVFR CIG /IFR CIG AT TIMES KBGM-KITH/. TONIGHT...VERY COLD
YET DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT...YET WITH FLOW DOWN
CAYUGA LAKE...IFR -SN WILL PERSIST INTO EVENING. FLOW TO BACK MORE
WESTERLY OR EVEN WSW INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING ANY REMAINING
CIGS TO SCT OUT FOR KBGM-KITH-KAVP-KELM...BUT KSYR-KRME WILL
BECOME PRONE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AFTN-EVE...MAINLY VFR.
LATE TUE NGT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR.
SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NY TERMINALS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
016>018-036-037-045-046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1143 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION TODAY, BITTERLY COLD AIR
WILL MOVE INTO NY AND PA FOR TONIGHT. A WEAKER STORM WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER
AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED ANOTHER BLOCK OF COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE WARNING OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTH. A FEW MODERATE SNOW
BANDS HAVE YET TO CLEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, WHILE THE NORTH MAY
STILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAKNENING DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
1040 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE WARNING. RADAR
SHOWS THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS REGION,
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
NY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FIZZLE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE MAY DROP ANOTHER BLOCK OF COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL ALLOW THE MODERATE BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION TO CLEAR THE AREA
FIRST.
430 AM UPDATE...
AT 430 AM SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA. LOCAL
RADARS/OBS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE REGION FROM WRN
PA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS JET DYNAMICS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES EAST OF FA. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA THEN OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
FGEN FORCING IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS MAY KEEP OCCASIONAL HEAVY
SNOW HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET/FZRA BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA. OBS IN THE STATE COLLEGE AREA ARE ALREADY
INDICATING THIS TYPE OF PRECIP. THE ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW BY MID/LATE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS IN GENERAL WILL RANGE
FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA AND 5 TO
8 IN THE FAR SE WITH SOME LIGHT ICING. ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON STRONG NW WINDS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. PARTS OF THE ERN CWA MAY REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT CONSIDER THIS
FLAG. NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION NORTH ACROSS THE
SYR AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL BY DAYBREAK. LOW INVERSION, SFC
RIDGING AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A PRECIP FREE DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE
NORMALLY WARMER AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SRN TIER
APPROACHING 20.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID WEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WED
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO CENTRAL
NY PRIMARILY LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND CHC ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ON WED TEMPS WILL MODERATE
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC TROF.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS SFC LOW CONTINUES LIFTING OFF TO THE NE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. POPULATED WITH CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE. WEAK SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF REGION WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO ADD TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C
T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS
FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE
RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS UNDER 1SM BY 8Z
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z/13Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KAVP, WHERE MIXING
WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPROVE VSBYS AFTER 08Z.
WHILE NOT AS LOW AS NOW, IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN LIGHT SNOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH MIDDAY. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BUT
GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW KEEPING VSBYS IFR AT TIMES.
ALSO DURING THE AFTN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES TO NW STARTING THE
LAKE EFFECT AND ALSO WRAP AROUND. NY TERMINALS 2 TO 3 MILES.
CIGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2K FT WILL DROP SOME THROUGH 14Z THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE. EXCEPTION MAY BE ITH AND BGM IN THE AFTN WITH THE LES.
EAST WINDS 5 T0 10 KTS THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 16 TO 19Z AT 10 KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM S TO N.
TUE/TUE EVE...VFR.
TUE OVERNIGHT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
016>018-036-037-045-046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION TODAY, BITTERLY COLD AIR
WILL MOVE INTO NY AND PA FOR TONIGHT. A WEAKER STORM WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER
AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE WARNING. RADAR
SHOWS THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS REGION,
AND HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
NY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND FIZZLE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE MAY DROP ANOTHER BLOCK OF COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL ALLOW THE MODERATE BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION TO CLEAR THE AREA
FIRST.
430 AM UPDATE...
AT 430 AM SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN PA. LOCAL
RADARS/OBS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG RETURNS HEADING TOWARD THE REGION FROM WRN
PA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS JET DYNAMICS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES EAST OF FA. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA THEN OFF THE NJ COAST BY MIDDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
FGEN FORCING IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS MAY KEEP OCCASIONAL HEAVY
SNOW HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET/FZRA BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA. OBS IN THE STATE COLLEGE AREA ARE ALREADY
INDICATING THIS TYPE OF PRECIP. THE ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW BY MID/LATE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS IN GENERAL WILL RANGE
FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA AND 5 TO
8 IN THE FAR SE WITH SOME LIGHT ICING. ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON STRONG NW WINDS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING UNDER NW FLOW. PARTS OF THE ERN CWA MAY REQUIRE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT CONSIDER THIS
FLAG. NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION NORTH ACROSS THE
SYR AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL BY DAYBREAK. LOW INVERSION, SFC
RIDGING AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
A PRECIP FREE DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE
NORMALLY WARMER AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SRN TIER
APPROACHING 20.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID WEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WED
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO CENTRAL
NY PRIMARILY LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND CHC ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ON WED TEMPS WILL MODERATE
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC TROF.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS SFC LOW CONTINUES LIFTING OFF TO THE NE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. POPULATED WITH CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE. WEAK SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF REGION WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO ADD TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C
T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS
FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE
RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS UNDER 1SM BY 8Z
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z/13Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KAVP, WHERE MIXING
WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPROVE VSBYS AFTER 08Z.
WHILE NOT AS LOW AS NOW, IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN LIGHT SNOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH MIDDAY. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BUT
GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW KEEPING VSBYS IFR AT TIMES.
ALSO DURING THE AFTN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES TO NW STARTING THE
LAKE EFFECT AND ALSO WRAP AROUND. NY TERMINALS 2 TO 3 MILES.
CIGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2K FT WILL DROP SOME THROUGH 14Z THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE. EXCEPTION MAY BE ITH AND BGM IN THE AFTN WITH THE LES.
EAST WINDS 5 T0 10 KTS THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 16 TO 19Z AT 10 KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM S TO N.
TUE/TUE EVE...VFR.
TUE OVERNIGHT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ039-
040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
238 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ONCE THIS STORM MOVES OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AGAIN...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHIELD CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACRS C NY AND
NE PA AS WAA OR ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WAS LEADING TO A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION OVER NY AND PA WITH A LEFT EXIT
REGION MOVING NORTH TWD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE AGEO CIRC THAT RESPONDS TO THIS JET CONFIGURATION
PRESSES THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPES FARTHER SOUTH AS THE LEFT EXIT
LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT FLOW UP THE ISENTROPES. ADDITIONALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LEADING TO THESE UPPER JET
STRUCTURES WAS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL REACH OH AND THE ERN LAKES
BY 12Z AND CNTRL NY BY 18Z AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. THIS UPR
LVL WAVE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THE ISENTROPES AS THE WAVE MOVES
E...LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE LIFTING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER C NY AND
NE PA.
MODEL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 6Z-9Z AND 12-15Z FROM SW TO NE. BELIEVE UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IS MOST LIKELY ACRS NC NY WHERE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
HIGHER.
BELIEVE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACRS NC NY WHERE 10-14 INCHES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. FARTHER S...ACRS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SC
NY/NRN TIER OF ERN PA...LOOKS LIKE 8-12 INCHES. FARTHER
S...EXPECT 5 TO 8 INCHES AT BEST. WARMER AIR WILL MAKE IT TO THE
NRN TIER OF ERN PA AS PER 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS...RGEM AND THE
2.5 KM HI RES CANADIAN MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
BY 12Z TO 15Z MON. I USED ALL THIS NEW GUIDC TO ADJUST THE ZR AND IP
FARTHER N INTO THE NRN TIER OF ERN PA MON AM. MORE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE AVP AREA TO POCONOS WILL CUT SNOW AMNTS DOWN.
FOR NOW HAVE 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH ARND .1 TO .2 INCHES OF ICE.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AND GUST TO 25
MPH...ESP IN C NY AND FAR NRN PA...SO ADDED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL
ALSO ADD TO AN UPDATED DSS BRIEFING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC ARE WILL SPILL BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH AND EAST RANGE
FROM -10F TO -18F OVERNIGHT, BORDERLINE FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
WE WON`T CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, AS WE DON`T WISH TO
DISTRACT FROM THE CURRENT STORM SCENARIO.
AFTER A DRY, COLD DAY TUESDAY...INCLUDING SOME WEAK LAKE ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHWEST...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIP DOWN ACROSS NY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
SHOULD STILL PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
THE REAL IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE TO USHER IN ANOTHER ARCTIC
BLAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. POPULATED WITH CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE. WEAK SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF REGION WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO ADD TO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C
T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS
FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE
RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS UNDER 1SM BY 8Z
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z/13Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KAVP, WHERE MIXING
WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPROVE VSBYS AFTER 08Z.
WHILE NOT AS LOW AS NOW, IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN LIGHT SNOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH MIDDAY. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BUT
GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW KEEPING VSBYS IFR AT TIMES.
ALSO DURING THE AFTN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES TO NW STARTING THE
LAKE EFFECT AND ALSO WRAP AROUND. NY TERMINALS 2 TO 3 MILES.
CIGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2K FT WILL DROP SOME THROUGH 14Z THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE. EXCEPTION MAY BE ITH AND BGM IN THE AFTN WITH THE LES.
EAST WINDS 5 T0 10 KTS THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 16 TO 19Z AT 10 KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM S TO N.
TUE/TUE EVE...VFR.
TUE OVERNIGHT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1252 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ONCE THIS STORM MOVES OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AGAIN...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHIELD CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACRS C NY AND
NE PA AS WAA OR ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WAS LEADING TO A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION OVER NY AND PA WITH A LEFT EXIT
REGION MOVING NORTH TWD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE AGEO CIRC THAT RESPONDS TO THIS JET CONFIGURATION
PRESSES THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPES FARTHER SOUTH AS THE LEFT EXIT
LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT FLOW UP THE ISENTROPES. ADDITIONALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LEADING TO THESE UPPER JET
STRUCTURES WAS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL REACH OH AND THE ERN LAKES
BY 12Z AND CNTRL NY BY 18Z AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. THIS UPR
LVL WAVE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THE ISENTROPES AS THE WAVE MOVES
E...LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE LIFTING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER C NY AND
NE PA.
MODEL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 6Z-9Z AND 12-15Z FROM SW TO NE. BELIEVE UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IS MOST LIKELY ACRS NC NY WHERE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
HIGHER.
BELIEVE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACRS NC NY WHERE 10-14 INCHES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. FARTHER S...ACRS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SC
NY/NRN TIER OF ERN PA...LOOKS LIKE 8-12 INCHES. FARTHER
S...EXPECT 5 TO 8 INCHES AT BEST. WARMER AIR WILL MAKE IT TO THE
NRN TIER OF ERN PA AS PER 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS...RGEM AND THE
2.5 KM HI RES CANADIAN MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
BY 12Z TO 15Z MON. I USED ALL THIS NEW GUIDC TO ADJUST THE ZR AND IP
FARTHER N INTO THE NRN TIER OF ERN PA MON AM. MORE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE AVP AREA TO POCONOS WILL CUT SNOW AMNTS DOWN.
FOR NOW HAVE 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH ARND .1 TO .2 INCHES OF ICE.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AND GUST TO 25
MPH...ESP IN C NY AND FAR NRN PA...SO ADDED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL
ALSO ADD TO AN UPDATED DSS BRIEFING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC ARE WILL SPILL BACK DOWN FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH AND EAST RANGE
FROM -10F TO -18F OVERNIGHT, BORDERLINE FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
WE WON`T CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, AS WE DON`T WISH TO
DISTRACT FROM THE CURRENT STORM SCENARIO.
AFTER A DRY, COLD DAY TUESDAY...INCLUDING SOME WEAK LAKE ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHWEST...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIP DOWN ACROSS NY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
SHOULD STILL PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
THE REAL IMPACT OF THE WAVE WILL BE TO USHER IN ANOTHER ARCTIC
BLAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND A SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
THURSDAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY COLD. 925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C
T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD
MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS
FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE
RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS UNDER 1SM BY 8Z
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z/13Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KAVP, WHERE MIXING
WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPROVE VSBYS AFTER 08Z.
WHILE NOT AS LOW AS NOW, IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN LIGHT SNOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH MIDDAY. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BUT
GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW KEEPING VSBYS IFR AT TIMES.
ALSO DURING THE AFTN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES TO NW STARTING THE
LAKE EFFECT AND ALSO WRAP AROUND. NY TERMINALS 2 TO 3 MILES.
CIGS MOSTLY 1 TO 2K FT WILL DROP SOME THROUGH 14Z THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE. EXCEPTION MAY BE ITH AND BGM IN THE AFTN WITH THE LES.
EAST WINDS 5 T0 10 KTS THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 16 TO 19Z AT 10 KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM S TO N.
TUE/TUE EVE...VFR.
TUE OVERNIGHT/WED/THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
108 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY
THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A
FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS...PLUS INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
EVERYWHERE THROUGH MIDDAY AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AS RAIN COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED A BIT AT THE COAST. LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN
FILLING BACK IN THROUGH LATE MORNING AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
WORKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVELS GRADUALLY DRY THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPERING EAST TO WEST WITH ALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
ENDED BY 00Z AND SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY AS DEEP DRY AIR MIXES TO
THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY
GUST TO 35 MPH ON THE OUTER BANKS AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FROM 17Z TO 00Z FOR THAT AREA. DESPITE CLOUDS...WARM ADVECTION HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO
AROUND 60 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
OVER MOST LAND AREAS TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ON THE OUTER BANKS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REMAINING BREEZE
WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES INTO THE TEENS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL COMBINE WITH
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO
INDUCE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL PASS BY
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THAT TIME BUT FORECAST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING ON MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC CD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA ATTM...AND SHOULD CROSS
ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z. BEHIND FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH VFR AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CLDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS NEXT COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATER THURSDAY...AND
DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE GALE
WARNING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY AT OR NEAR CRITERIA.
CONCERN OVER THE 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. BELIVE THIS WILL PUSH WINDS
IN THE ALBEMARLE AND NORTHERN ALLIGATOR RIVER TO AT LEAT LOW END
GALES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO BUMBED UP WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUND. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.
S/SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER
THE LATEST HRRR. GUSTIMNESS OVER THE SOUTEHR WATERS AS WELL AS
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAS BEEN INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT ALREADY. AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT...GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
RIVERS INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN VERY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY.
PER LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
QUICKLY SO WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WORSEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE.
STRONG NORTH FLOW THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST
FOR ALL WATERS THURSDAY INCLUDING SOUNDS AND RIVERS...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE WATERS BUT
HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KNOTS FOR NOW. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS QUICKLY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS A RESULT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1255 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND
OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1202 PM MONDAY...
UPDATED: LARGER PRECIP SHIELD IS HEADING OUT OF THE CWA... SO WILL
MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL AS
THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT
ITSELF IS DEPICTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM AROUND
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO THE CITY OF RALEIGH TO JUST NW OF WADESBORO. WE`RE
STARTING TO GET SOME OF THE LARGER POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION... AS HIGH AS 28-30
KT... WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AT WEST JEFFERSON IN THE LAST HR...
SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (AND
SPORADICALLY STRONGER) THIS AFTERNOON... SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT AS IS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE REST OF TODAY: WILL LEAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BASED ON ANTICIPATED
IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY NOT QUITE
GET UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION... WITH WINDS THERE NOW
FROM THE W OR WNW. UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL STRONG SW WINDS NEAR 50
KTS AT 925-850 MB AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AT THOSE LEVELS (LOCATED RIGHT
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS)... AND WHILE WINDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH FROM THE W OR WNW ARE NOT AS STRONG (CLOSER TO 25-30 KT)...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER AND JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT RISES OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT MIXING TAKING PLACE. THIS SHOULD FALL
BELOW CRITERIA... BUT OUGHT TO LEAD TO SOME OUTDOOR OBJECTS BEING
TOSSED AROUND. THE RAIN SHIELD OVER ERN NC INCLUDING THE ERN CWA
SUPPORTED BY STRONG PREFRONTAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL
JET-INDUCED DIVERGENCE IS RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST
PACE... SO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED... RETAINING CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST... AND A HIGH CHANCE HOLDING ON OVER THE WEST WITH NARROW
SHOWER BANDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SHOULD TOTAL NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. POPS SHOULD
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON... WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALREADY LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY... ATYPICALLY PEAKING THIS
MORNING OVER THE WEST AND EARLY AFTERNOON EAST... IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60... BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 40S. MADE
SMALL TWEAKS USING LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOR A WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN ENHANCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY A 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
MID 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY BENIGN AS WLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT
AND AN ARA OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL AID TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S (CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER IF STRONG
INSOLATION OCCURS).
THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRAVERSING A S/W IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT WHILE A S/W
DIGS SEWD IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM S/W EVENTUALLY CAUSES THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO SHEAR OUT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THURSDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL SPREAD VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS THURSDAY WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SE THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIP WILL INITIALLY FALL FROM CLOUD BASES 6000-8000FT SO IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE THE SUB CLOUD LAYER. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX
SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING. (00Z GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A POSSIBLE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AROUND MID
DAY). STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER PRECIP WILL OCCUR THIS FAR
NORTH. PLUS...MAY BE A CASE OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE AS
BEST CAA OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON (AT THE SAME TIME THE ATMOSPHERE
UNDERGOES RAPID DRYING). FOR NOW WILL VARY POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF...TRENDING TO A 3:1 CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S FAR SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUS WILL SEE A VERY COLD DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY A DECENT RECOVERY FOR THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES EARLY FRIDAY START
OUT IN THE MID 1260S. PAST EVENTS WITH SIMILAR THICKNESSES SUGGEST
MIN TEMPS NEAR 20/LOWER 20S. AFTERNOON TEMPS FRIDAY MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40 ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. WLY FLOW
WILL SET-UP A LEE SIDE TROUGH...BACKING SFC WINDS TO A MORE SWLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
SHOULD BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...AND LOW-MID 50S
SUNDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT S/W
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AFFECTS OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS: BLUSTERY AND GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC... ALREADY
THROUGH INT/GSO/RDU/RWI AND TO BE MOVING THROUGH FAY BEFORE 2 PM
/19Z/. CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY MVFR AT RWI/FAY IN THE LAST HOUR BUT
THESE WILL BE CLIMBING TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT... AS CIGS ARE
ALREADY VFR AT INT/GSO/RDU. SURFACE WINDS SUDDENLY SHIFT FROM SW TO
NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
SUSTAINED 10-20 KTS GUSTING FREQUENTLY TO 25-35 KTS WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CREATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE AND POTENTIAL DIFFICULTY ESPECIALLY HANDLING SMALLER
AIRCRAFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS (TO UNDER 10 KTS) BY LATE EVENING...
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PATCHY OR ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL AROUND 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT... SHIFT
OVERHEAD TUE THEN OFFSHORE WED. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT FAY/RWI LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU
AS A DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. BUT OTHERWISE... ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA (A CHILLY
ONE) WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW FOR LATE THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1202 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND
OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1202 PM MONDAY...
UPDATED: LARGER PRECIP SHIELD IS HEADING OUT OF THE CWA... SO WILL
MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL AS
THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT
ITSELF IS DEPICTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM AROUND
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO THE CITY OF RALEIGH TO JUST NW OF WADESBORO. WE`RE
STARTING TO GET SOME OF THE LARGER POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION... AS HIGH AS 28-30
KT... WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AT WEST JEFFERSON IN THE LAST HR...
SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (AND
SPORADICALLY STRONGER) THIS AFTERNOON... SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT AS IS. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE REST OF TODAY: WILL LEAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BASED ON ANTICIPATED
IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY NOT QUITE
GET UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD
FRONT HAVING MOVED THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION... WITH WINDS THERE NOW
FROM THE W OR WNW. UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL STRONG SW WINDS NEAR 50
KTS AT 925-850 MB AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AT THOSE LEVELS (LOCATED RIGHT
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS)... AND WHILE WINDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH FROM THE W OR WNW ARE NOT AS STRONG (CLOSER TO 25-30 KT)...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER AND JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT RISES OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT MIXING TAKING PLACE. THIS SHOULD FALL
BELOW CRITERIA... BUT OUGHT TO LEAD TO SOME OUTDOOR OBJECTS BEING
TOSSED AROUND. THE RAIN SHIELD OVER ERN NC INCLUDING THE ERN CWA
SUPPORTED BY STRONG PREFRONTAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL
JET-INDUCED DIVERGENCE IS RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST
PACE... SO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED... RETAINING CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST... AND A HIGH CHANCE HOLDING ON OVER THE WEST WITH NARROW
SHOWER BANDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SHOULD TOTAL NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. POPS SHOULD
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON... WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALREADY LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY... ATYPICALLY PEAKING THIS
MORNING OVER THE WEST AND EARLY AFTERNOON EAST... IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60... BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 40S. MADE
SMALL TWEAKS USING LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOR A WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN ENHANCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY A 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO
MID 40S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY BENIGN AS WLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT
AND AN ARA OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL AID TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S (CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER IF STRONG
INSOLATION OCCURS).
THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRAVERSING A S/W IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT WHILE A S/W
DIGS SEWD IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM S/W EVENTUALLY CAUSES THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO SHEAR OUT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THURSDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL SPREAD VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS THURSDAY WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SE THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIP WILL INITIALLY FALL FROM CLOUD BASES 6000-8000FT SO IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE THE SUB CLOUD LAYER. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX
SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING. (00Z GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A POSSIBLE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AROUND MID
DAY). STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER PRECIP WILL OCCUR THIS FAR
NORTH. PLUS...MAY BE A CASE OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE AS
BEST CAA OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON (AT THE SAME TIME THE ATMOSPHERE
UNDERGOES RAPID DRYING). FOR NOW WILL VARY POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF...TRENDING TO A 3:1 CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S FAR SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUS WILL SEE A VERY COLD DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY A DECENT RECOVERY FOR THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES EARLY FRIDAY START
OUT IN THE MID 1260S. PAST EVENTS WITH SIMILAR THICKNESSES SUGGEST
MIN TEMPS NEAR 20/LOWER 20S. AFTERNOON TEMPS FRIDAY MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40 ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. WLY FLOW
WILL SET-UP A LEE SIDE TROUGH...BACKING SFC WINDS TO A MORE SWLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
SHOULD BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...AND LOW-MID 50S
SUNDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT S/W
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AFFECTS OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP
BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z FROM RDU EASTWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONG DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A RAPID RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG NWLY WINDS BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT..EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT/ VARIABLE BY 12Z TUE MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN
TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY
THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A
FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS...PLUS INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
EVERYWHERE THROUGH MIDDAY AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AS RAIN COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED A BIT AT THE COAST. LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN
FILLING BACK IN THROUGH LATE MORNING AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
WORKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVELS GRADUALLY DRY THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPERING EAST TO WEST WITH ALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
ENDED BY 00Z AND SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY AS DEEP DRY AIR MIXES TO
THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY
GUST TO 35 MPH ON THE OUTER BANKS AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FROM 17Z TO 00Z FOR THAT AREA. DESPITE CLOUDS...WARM ADVECTION HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO
AROUND 60 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
OVER MOST LAND AREAS TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ON THE OUTER BANKS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REMAINING BREEZE
WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES INTO THE TEENS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL COMBINE WITH
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO
INDUCE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL PASS BY
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THAT TIME BUT FORECAST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING ON MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPGV.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
DRYING COMMENCES AROUND 18Z THROUGH THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR BY
LATE EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30KT...THIS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS AT
EWN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING W/NW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...VFR/SKC TUE THROUGH WED WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY OFFSHORE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AS WELL AT 15-25 KNOTS.
SKC/DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WINDS NORTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE GALE
WARNING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY AT OR NEAR CRITERIA.
CONCERN OVER THE 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. BELIVE THIS WILL PUSH WINDS
IN THE ALBEMARLE AND NORTHERN ALLIGATOR RIVER TO AT LEAT LOW END
GALES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO BUMBED UP WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUND. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.
S/SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER
THE LATEST HRRR. GUSTIMNESS OVER THE SOUTEHR WATERS AS WELL AS
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAS BEEN INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT ALREADY. AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT...GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
RIVERS INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN VERY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY.
PER LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
QUICKLY SO WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WORSEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE.
STRONG NORTH FLOW THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST
FOR ALL WATERS THURSDAY INCLUDING SOUNDS AND RIVERS...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE WATERS BUT
HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KNOTS FOR NOW. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS QUICKLY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS A RESULT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-131-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY
THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AS RAIN COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED A BIT AT THE COAST. LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN
FILLING BACK IN THROUGH LATE MORNING AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
WORKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ENDING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVELS GRADUALLY DRY THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN
GRADUALLY TAPERING EAST TO WEST WITH ALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
ENDED BY 00Z AND SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY AS DEEP DRY AIR MIXES TO
THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY
GUST TO 35 MPH ON THE OUTER BANKS AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FROM 17Z TO 00Z FOR THAT AREA. DESPITE CLOUDS...WARM ADVECTION HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO
AROUND 60 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
OVER MOST LAND AREAS TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ON THE OUTER BANKS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE REMAINING BREEZE
WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES INTO THE TEENS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL COMBINE WITH
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO
INDUCE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL PASS BY
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THAT TIME BUT FORECAST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING ON MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KPGV.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
DRYING COMMENCES AROUND 18Z THROUGH THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR BY
LATE EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-30KT...THIS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS AT
EWN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING W/NW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...VFR/SKC TUE THROUGH WED WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY OFFSHORE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AS WELL AT 15-25 KNOTS.
SKC/DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WINDS NORTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. S/SW
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER THE
LATEST HRRR. ALREADY VERY GUSTY AT DIAMOND BUOY...IN PROXIMITY TO
70 DEGREE WATER...WITH 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 43 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE
BUILD TO 10 FEET AT DIAMOND...AND WILL RESPOND ELSEWHERE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT...GALE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT
MORE MARGINAL ON THE PAMLICO SOUND...BUT WILL KEEP GALES UP THERE
AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE REMAINING WATERS
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN VERY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. PER
LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
QUICKLY SO WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WORSEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE.
STRONG NORTH FLOW THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST
FOR ALL WATERS THURSDAY INCLUDING SOUNDS AND RIVERS...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE WATERS BUT
HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KNOTS FOR NOW. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS QUICKLY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS A RESULT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM MON...STRONG SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND...MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY. MINOR LOW WATER WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
PAMLICO SOUND AND RIVERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
QUICKLY. LEFT SOME POPS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THAT
TRANSITION TO FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARING NORTH
AND WEST IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SNOW TO LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 2
HOURS IN THE AREAS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. STILL
EXPECTING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. LIGHT SNOW OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN MONTANA
IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAPERING OFF IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. DID BUMP UP
POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS MORNING. LOWS HAVE
BEEN REACHED AS TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY SKIRTING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MOVE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WILL BRUSH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LEAVING
ONLY A DUSTING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FEEL THE 09 UTC HRRR HAS A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS IT IS PRETTY CLOSE IN
DEPICTING CURRENT SNOW BANDS IN EASTERN MONTANA. THE 09 UTC HRRR
CONTINUES TO BRING THAT BAND OF SNOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHES AND SCATTERS OUT THE SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING.
FROM THERE OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO TONIGHT WHEN WE HAVE YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
AREA OF SNOW ENTERING THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SNOWFALL...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES TOTAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH THE QPF PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL OTHER MODELS ARE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH THE
NAM/SREF/GEM/ECMWF AND GFS. THUS NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE GFS
TRACK BUT THIS DOES RESULT IN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE QPF. PREVIOUS TRACK HAD HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS FROM AROUND BEACH TO
SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND IS NOW BETWEEN BEACH AND WILLISTON...THROUGH
BISMARCK...TO ELLENDALE. AND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL NOT A BIG CHANGE AND GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OVER
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE ACCUMULATIONS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL FROM SHERWOOD AND MOHALL TO RUGBY
AND NORTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. OF
COURSE THE RESULTING TRACK IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT THE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
AFTER A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE SEE ANOTHER
SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
BY THIS TIME THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH OVER
NORTHERN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE ALREADY TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH MUCH QUICKER ON FRIDAY
THAN BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FROM
NORTHERN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
SAGS IT SOUTH THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE QUICKER GFS DROPS THE BZ SOUTH FRIDAY...LIFTS IT BACK NORTH ON
SATURDAY AND DROPS IT BACK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER. THE GEM BRINGS IT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY THEN
BEGINS TO LIFT IT WELL NORTH OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. WITH ALL
THAT...SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO DEVIATE FROM A MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS WHICH BRINGS MAINLY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND
THEN SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND EXITING TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THAT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHEREVER IT MAY BE...AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WE REMAIN COLD ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS NORTH WE WARM INTO THE 20S NORTHEAST TO THE
40S SOUTHWEST. THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SHARPENS EVEN MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
FAST MOVING BUT WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES NORTH AND WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEXT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR IN SNOW AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SNOW TO LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 2
HOURS IN THE AREAS SHOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. STILL
EXPECTING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. LIGHT SNOW OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN MONTANA
IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAPERING OFF IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. DID BUMP UP
POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS MORNING. LOWS HAVE
BEEN REACHED AS TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY SKIRTING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MOVE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WILL BRUSH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LEAVING
ONLY A DUSTING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FEEL THE 09 UTC HRRR HAS A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS IT IS PRETTY CLOSE IN
DEPICTING CURRENT SNOW BANDS IN EASTERN MONTANA. THE 09 UTC HRRR
CONTINUES TO BRING THAT BAND OF SNOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHES AND SCATTERS OUT THE SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING.
FROM THERE OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO TONIGHT WHEN WE HAVE YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
AREA OF SNOW ENTERING THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SNOWFALL...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES TOTAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH THE QPF PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL OTHER MODELS ARE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH THE
NAM/SREF/GEM/ECMWF AND GFS. THUS NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE GFS
TRACK BUT THIS DOES RESULT IN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE QPF. PREVIOUS TRACK HAD HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS FROM AROUND BEACH TO
SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND IS NOW BETWEEN BEACH AND WILLISTON...THROUGH
BISMARCK...TO ELLENDALE. AND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL NOT A BIG CHANGE AND GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OVER
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE ACCUMULATIONS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL FROM SHERWOOD AND MOHALL TO RUGBY
AND NORTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. OF
COURSE THE RESULTING TRACK IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT THE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
AFTER A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE SEE ANOTHER
SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
BY THIS TIME THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH OVER
NORTHERN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE ALREADY TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH MUCH QUICKER ON FRIDAY
THAN BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FROM
NORTHERN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
SAGS IT SOUTH THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE QUICKER GFS DROPS THE BZ SOUTH FRIDAY...LIFTS IT BACK NORTH ON
SATURDAY AND DROPS IT BACK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER. THE GEM BRINGS IT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY THEN
BEGINS TO LIFT IT WELL NORTH OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. WITH ALL
THAT...SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO DEVIATE FROM A MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS WHICH BRINGS MAINLY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND
THEN SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND EXITING TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THAT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHEREVER IT MAY BE...AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WE REMAIN COLD ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS NORTH WE WARM INTO THE 20S NORTHEAST TO THE
40S SOUTHWEST. THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SHARPENS EVEN MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...KDIK MAY FALL TO MVFR CEILINGS AS LIGHT SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO KBIS
BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. LIGHT SNOW OVER A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN MONTANA
IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST
AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAPERING OFF IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. DID BUMP UP
POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS MORNING. LOWS HAVE
BEEN REACHED AS TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY SKIRTING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MOVE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WILL BRUSH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LEAVING
ONLY A DUSTING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FEEL THE 09 UTC HRRR HAS A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS IT IS PRETTY CLOSE IN
DEPICTING CURRENT SNOW BANDS IN EASTERN MONTANA. THE 09 UTC HRRR
CONTINUES TO BRING THAT BAND OF SNOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHES AND SCATTERS OUT THE SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING.
FROM THERE OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO TONIGHT WHEN WE HAVE YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
AREA OF SNOW ENTERING THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SNOWFALL...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES TOTAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH THE QPF PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL OTHER MODELS ARE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH THE
NAM/SREF/GEM/ECMWF AND GFS. THUS NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE GFS
TRACK BUT THIS DOES RESULT IN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE QPF. PREVIOUS TRACK HAD HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS FROM AROUND BEACH TO
SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND IS NOW BETWEEN BEACH AND WILLISTON...THROUGH
BISMARCK...TO ELLENDALE. AND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL NOT A BIG CHANGE AND GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OVER
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE ACCUMULATIONS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL FROM SHERWOOD AND MOHALL TO RUGBY
AND NORTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. OF
COURSE THE RESULTING TRACK IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT THE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
AFTER A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE SEE ANOTHER
SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY
THIS TIME THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH OVER
NORTHERN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE ALREADY TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH MUCH QUICKER ON FRIDAY THAN
BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS IT SOUTH THROUGH
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QUICKER GFS DROPS
THE BZ SOUTH FRIDAY...LIFTS IT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY AND DROPS IT
BACK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER. THE GEM
BRINGS IT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY THEN BEGINS TO LIFT IT WELL NORTH
OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. WITH ALL THAT...SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME
TO DEVIATE FROM A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS WHICH BRINGS MAINLY CHANCE
POPS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY...AND EXITING TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
HERE IS THAT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHEREVER IT MAY BE...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WE REMAIN COLD ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS NORTH WE WARM INTO THE 20S NORTHEAST TO THE
40S SOUTHWEST. THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SHARPENS EVEN MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW MAY ENTER KISN/KDIK TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND KBIS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
340 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY SKIRTING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MOVE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WILL BRUSH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LEAVING
ONLY A DUSTING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FEEL THE 09 UTC HRRR HAS A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS IT IS PRETTY CLOSE IN
DEPICTING CURRENT SNOW BANDS IN EASTERN MONTANA. THE 09 UTC HRRR
CONTINUES TO BRING THAT BAND OF SNOW EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHES AND SCATTERS OUT THE SNOW
LATER THIS MORNING.
FROM THERE OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO TONIGHT WHEN WE HAVE YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
AREA OF SNOW ENTERING THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SNOWFALL...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES TOTAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH THE QPF PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL OTHER MODELS ARE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH THE
NAM/SREF/GEM/ECMWF AND GFS. THUS NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTING THE GFS
TRACK BUT THIS DOES RESULT IN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHERN TRACK WITH
THE QPF. PREVIOUS TRACK HAD HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS FROM AROUND BEACH TO
SOUTH OF BISMARCK AND IS NOW BETWEEN BEACH AND WILLISTON...THROUGH
BISMARCK...TO ELLENDALE. AND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL NOT A BIG CHANGE AND GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OVER
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE ACCUMULATIONS MAY TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL FROM SHERWOOD AND MOHALL TO RUGBY
AND NORTH WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. OF
COURSE THE RESULTING TRACK IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT THE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
AFTER A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE SEE ANOTHER
SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY
THIS TIME THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH OVER
NORTHERN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE ALREADY TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH MUCH QUICKER ON FRIDAY THAN
BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SAGS IT SOUTH THROUGH
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QUICKER GFS DROPS
THE BZ SOUTH FRIDAY...LIFTS IT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY AND DROPS IT
BACK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER. THE GEM
BRINGS IT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY THEN BEGINS TO LIFT IT WELL NORTH
OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. WITH ALL THAT...SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME
TO DEVIATE FROM A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS WHICH BRINGS MAINLY CHANCE
POPS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY...AND EXITING TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
HERE IS THAT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHEREVER IT MAY BE...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WE REMAIN COLD ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS NORTH WE WARM INTO THE 20S NORTHEAST TO THE
40S SOUTHWEST. THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SHARPENS EVEN MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW MAY ENTER KISN/KDIK TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND KBIS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1102 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHIPS COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD BE E OF CWA
NEXT HR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 40 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN NEXT FEW HRS AS STRONG CAA COMMENCES.
ELSEWHERE...BACK EDGE OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THRU C WV ATTM
WITH THE UPPER TROF. BEHIND IT...SCT SHSN EXTEND BACK INTO OH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
WINDS CREATING FOR LOW WIND CHILLS.
FRESHENED UP THE SPS ALONG WITH STORM TOTAL SNOW GRAPHIC TO
ACCOUNT FOR WHAT FELL LAST NIGHT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. NUDGED THE
LOWLANDS TO BELOW AN INCH...MAINLY JUST DUSTINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VERY
COLD AIR...AS SEEN ON MODELS H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 0C TO
MINUS 15C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO...EXPECT A NON DIURNAL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW 88 PERCENT FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER THAN 4 INCHES THERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUPPORT PCPN UNDER VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH 21Z NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH AND WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS INTO THE MINUS TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THROUGH
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
WENT WITH THE HRRR AND NAM FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY SYSTEM WILL EXTEND DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT OUR AREA DRY FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NIGHT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING WV THIS MORNING WILL BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES CHANGING RAIN INTO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STARTED
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST PLACES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AND EVEN
IFR SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR AFTER 22Z IS EXPECTED EXCEPT
ACROSS EKN AND CKB WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST LONGER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS INTO MVFR AND IFR MAY VARY.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW VFR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ038-
046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
522 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHIPS COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THE RAIN
TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VERY COLD
AIR...AS SEEN ON MODELS H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 0C TO MINUS
15C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO...EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TREND
IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW 88 PERCENT FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER THAN 4 INCHES THERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUPPORT PCPN UNDER VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH 21Z NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH AND WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS INTO THE MINUS TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THROUGH
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
WENT WITH THE HRRR AND NAM FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY SYSTEM WILL EXTEND DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT OUR AREA DRY FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NIGHT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING WV THIS MORNING WILL BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES CHANGING RAIN INTO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STARTED
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST PLACES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AND EVEN
IFR SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR AFTER 22Z IS EXPECTED EXCEPT
ACROSS EKN AND CKB WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST LONGER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS INTO MVFR AND IFR MAY VARY.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW VFR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ038-
046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHIPS COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THE RAIN
TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VERY COLD
AIR...AS SEEN ON MODELS H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 0C TO MINUS
15C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO...EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TREND
IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW 88 PERCENT FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER THAN 4 INCHES THERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUPPORT PCPN UNDER VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH 21Z NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH AND WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM. IN
ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS INTO THE MINUS TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS THROUGH
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
WENT WITH THE HRRR AND NAM FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD START TO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY SYSTEM WILL EXTEND DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT OUR AREA DRY FOR NOW.
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NIGHT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMING OVERNIGHT KEEPING PCPN LIQUID.
HOWEVER...BY 12Z MONDAY...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RUSH IN SWITCHING ALL PCPN TO SNOW.
STARTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST PLACES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR
AND EVEN IFR SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
PREDAWN HOURS. ONCE PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV LOWLANDS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR AFTER 22Z. HOWEVER...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING EKN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 26 KTS ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS...AND UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS INTO MVFR AND IFR MAY VARY.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW VFR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
ON MONDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/02/15
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M M M H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
851 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. HOWEVER THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF FRONTS IS NOT FAR AWAY...AND WILL SPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS BY THE END OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A BIT MORE RAIN AND RISING SNOW LEVELS.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH HEAVIER
RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG COASTAL WIND THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN FRONTAL SYSTEMS HAS TEMPORARILY BROUGHT RAIN TO AN END
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL AND INLAND
VALLEYS DUE TO SOME CLEARING AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SO WE ADDED
IT TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LURKING OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
BETWEEN 130W-135W...INTERCEPTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. A PLUME OF 1.0-1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXTEND NE FROM HAWAII AND INTO THE FRONT UP TO AROUND 42N. A
MODEST 100 KT JET IS AIDING IN TRANSPORTING THIS MOISTURE
POLEWARD...SO IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY INSISTENT ON KEEPING ENOUGH MOIST
INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OR OCCLUSION MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED WITH THE FRONT
OFFSHORE...WE DO NOT REALLY SEE ANY REASON THIS WOULD STOP AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT THE 12Z CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING SPC STORM-SCALE
ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALLOWING
SOME 45+ DBZ ECHOES AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE SAME. THE
QPF SIGNATURE OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z/18Z/00Z GFS SUGGEST EMBEDDED
CONVECTION AS WELL. MEANWHILE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS 35-45 PCT CHANCE
THUNDER 12Z-18Z KSLE SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK TO THE FORECAST MONDAY...EXCEPT NOW IT IS
EARLY IN THE DAY AND THE FOCUS APPEARS TO BE PORTLAND SOUTHWARD.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE TO BRING A PERIOD OF
FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS TEMPORARILY
LOWERING CLOSE TO THE CASCADE PASSES. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE BY THEN...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CASCADES. WITH SOME NVA
BEHIND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR A
COUPLE SUNBREAKS IN THE VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE LOWERED SKY
COVER AND POPS A BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.
THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LEFT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THIS ZONE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES TRAVELLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BUT A LITTLE
LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL THEN RISE DRAMATICALLY MIDWEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WHICH WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE AREA AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE
APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR LIGHT
RAIN DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE. THEN A PERIOD OF MUCH WETTER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES SETS
UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAS OF PRIMARY QPF FOCUS REMAIN
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT THE REALLY HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THEY DO
NOT ALWAYS FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL...AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA. TJ
&&
.AVIATION...A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE LOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME. MAINLY MVFR CIGS CENTERED AROUND 015 WITH POCKETS OF IFR
003-007 NEARER THE COAST. ALSO STARTING TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG
DEVELOPING AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES AS TO WHICH
TERMINALS CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW IT TO FORM. WILL NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE
IN THE CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT DO HAVE AN INTERESTING WRINKLE
DEVELOPING PER THE STORM SCALE ENSEMBLES (SSEO). THESE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE BRINGING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH
MODELED REFLECTIVITY IN EXCESS OF 40 DB AND SOME ABOVE 50 DB AT
3000 FEET FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK A LITTLE OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AT NEARER THE CENTRAL CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. AS SUCH HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS
DATA GIVES CONFIDENCE TO SOME MARGINAL FEELINGS WE WERE HAVING
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. EXPECT
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LIKELY IFR CIGS FOR THE
FEW HOURS SURROUNDING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
AND A RETURN TO BKN MVFR CIGS AND AT WORST VSBYS TOWARDS ABOUT MID
EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT WILL
PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH COULD SEE CIGS
LOWER BELOW 1000 FT IN FOG/LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT FROM 06Z-12Z BUT
MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN NEAR. EXPECT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING NEAR 20-22Z WITH
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...THE LULL BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
AM SEEING ENOUGH CONCERN FOR INSTABILITY SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 2 AM TOWARD DAYBREAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A NOTABLE WIND
SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AND CROSS THE 10 FT THRESHOLD
AS WIND WAVES PILE ON TOP OF THE SWELL WITH AND SOME TIME AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRESH SWELL WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER THE
WINDS AND AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEAS MAY LINGER ABOVE
10 FT PAST MIDNIGHT BUT WASN`T COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA JUST
YET.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING SEAS BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORT-LIVED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN
EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALES AND SEAS 20-25 FT. HAVE
SEEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT LATEST
RUNS INDICATE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST
MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
6 AM PST MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 PM TO
7 PM PST MONDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
HAVE FURTHER REFINED THE AREA OF BEST SNOW TONIGHT...AND TOTALS
STILL ADD UP TO 2 INCHES OR LESS IN THE NW 3 COS. MODERATE SNOW
DIFFICULT TO FIND UPSTREAM AND DEWPOINTS LOW/CIGS HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY 2-3 HRS LEFT BEFORE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED AS THE LOWER CLOUDS RETURNED AND HAVE GONE WITH THAT TREND
AND HELD TEMPS PRETTY MUCH STEADY IN THE WEST AND EVEN BROUGHT
THEM UP OVERNIGHT JUST A FEW DEGS FROM CURR READINGS IN THE EC
COS. SE MAY STAY MORE-CLEAR AND MORE-CALM THEREFORE NOT RISE AS
MUCH. BUT WILL GIVE IT AT LEAST A STEADY TREND AFTER THE NEXT
HOUR.
7 PM UPDATE...
BUMPED POPS UP IN THE NRN TIER FOR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. HRRR RAP AND NAM
ALL TAPER THIS SINGLE PUSH OF WAA SNOW OFF RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT NEARS LATER IN THE MORNING.
PREV...
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...BUT THE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THE LOW MOVES ALONG
THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TIER. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. THE QPF
PROGS FROM NEARLY EVERY SOURCE BRING ALMOST NO PRECIP SOUTH OF
I-80. WILL PAD THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE LAURELS AND INTO STATE
COLLEGE/SUNBURY/BLOOMSBURG WITH CHCS THERE. BUT...LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW WIMPERS AWAY UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY WED...AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHARPENS
UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT LAYING W-E ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ALSO BUCKLES THE FRONT AS BRINGS THE
COLD AIR DOWN - AND INTO THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT
BETTER MOISTURE FEED LATER WED AND EARLY WED NIGHT AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS THAN WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE MORE SNOW
FALL FROM THE SKY...BUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SNOW ADVY FOR THE NRN TIER LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT - BUT A GENERAL 2-3 OVER THE 18 HRS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT
NOW. THE ACCUMS WILL...AGAIN...NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MD
BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN ACCUM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON
WED...IT MAY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA
AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE M-U30S. THEREFORE...ACCUMS IN THE SE HALF
WILL HAVE TO BE AFTER DARK WED EVENING. THE TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD
FLIP SIGN AROUND 21Z WED...AND 8H TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST -20C IN THE
NORTHWESTERN MTNS BY 12Z THURS. BRRR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST ON THU WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ON NW FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THU BEFORE SLIDING BACKWARDS
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A NOTICABLE WIND BRINGING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY DURING
THAT TIME.
THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE
AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-MON...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND
EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/
LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ALL THE WAY BACK INTO OHIO...HOWEVER LIGHT
SNOW IS STREAKING EAST CAUSING RAPID DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITIES AS
FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND AND WOOSTER.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO MY
NORTHWESTERN AREAS BETWEEN ABOUT 05-08Z...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR OVER
OUR HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS...LASTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1028 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
HAVE FURTHER REFINED THE AREA OF BEST SNOW TONIGHT...AND TOTALS
STILL ADD UP TO 2 INCHES OR LESS IN THE NW 3 COS. MODERATE SNOW
DIFFICULT TO FIND UPSTREAM AND DEWPOINTS LOW/CIGS HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY 2-3 HRS LEFT BEFORE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED AS THE LOWER CLOUDS RETURNED AND HAVE GONE WITH THAT TREND
AND HELD TEMPS PRETTY MUCH STEADY IN THE WEST AND EVEN BROUGHT
THEM UP OVERNIGHT JUST A FEW DEGS FROM CURR READINGS IN THE EC
COS. SE MAY STAY MORE-CLEAR AND MORE-CALM THEREFORE NOT RISE AS
MUCH. BUT WILL GIVE IT AT LEAST A STEADY TREND AFTER THE NEXT
HOUR.
7 PM UPDATE...
BUMPED POPS UP IN THE NRN TIER FOR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. HRRR RAP AND NAM
ALL TAPER THIS SINGLE PUSH OF WAA SNOW OFF RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT NEARS LATER IN THE MORNING.
PREV...
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...BUT THE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THE LOW MOVES ALONG
THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TIER. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. THE QPF
PROGS FROM NEARLY EVERY SOURCE BRING ALMOST NO PRECIP SOUTH OF
I-80. WILL PAD THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE LAURELS AND INTO STATE
COLLEGE/SUNBURY/BLOOMSBURG WITH CHCS THERE. BUT...LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW WIMPERS AWAY UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY WED...AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHARPENS
UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT LAYING W-E ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ALSO BUCKLES THE FRONT AS BRINGS THE
COLD AIR DOWN - AND INTO THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT
BETTER MOISTURE FEED LATER WED AND EARLY WED NIGHT AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS THAN WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE MORE SNOW
FALL FROM THE SKY...BUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SNOW ADVY FOR THE NRN TIER LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT - BUT A GENERAL 2-3 OVER THE 18 HRS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT
NOW. THE ACCUMS WILL...AGAIN...NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MD
BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN ACCUM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON
WED...IT MAY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA
AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE M-U30S. THEREFORE...ACCUMS IN THE SE HALF
WILL HAVE TO BE AFTER DARK WED EVENING. THE TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD
FLIP SIGN AROUND 21Z WED...AND 8H TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST -20C IN THE
NORTHWESTERN MTNS BY 12Z THURS. BRRR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST ON THU WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ON NW FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THU BEFORE SLIDING BACKWARDS
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A NOTICABLE WIND BRINGING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY DURING
THAT TIME.
THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE
AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-MON...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND
EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/
LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SE...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME MVFR/IFR TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS BY
LATER TONIGHT...LASTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY
REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
709 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BUMPED POPS UP IN THE NRN TIER FOR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. HRRR RAP AND NAM
ALL TAPER THIS SINGLE PUSH OF WAA SNOW OFF RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT NEARS LATER IN THE MORNING.
PREV...
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...BUT THE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THE LOW MOVES ALONG
THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TIER. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. THE QPF
PROGS FROM NEARLY EVERY SOURCE BRING ALMOST NO PRECIP SOUTH OF
I-80. WILL PAD THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE LAURELS AND INTO STATE
COLLEGE/SUNBURY/BLOOMSBURG WITH CHCS THERE. BUT...LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW WIMPERS AWAY UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY WED...AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHARPENS
UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT LAYING W-E ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ALSO BUCKLES THE FRONT AS BRINGS THE
COLD AIR DOWN - AND INTO THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT
BETTER MOISTURE FEED LATER WED AND EARLY WED NIGHT AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS THAN WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE MORE SNOW
FALL FROM THE SKY...BUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SNOW ADVY FOR THE NRN TIER LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT - BUT A GENERAL 2-3 OVER THE 18 HRS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT
NOW. THE ACCUMS WILL...AGAIN...NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MD
BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN ACCUM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON
WED...IT MAY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA
AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE M-U30S. THEREFORE...ACCUMS IN THE SE HALF
WILL HAVE TO BE AFTER DARK WED EVENING. THE TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD
FLIP SIGN AROUND 21Z WED...AND 8H TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST -20C IN THE
NORTHWESTERN MTNS BY 12Z THURS. BRRR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST ON THU WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ON NW FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THU BEFORE SLIDING BACKWARDS
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A NOTICABLE WIND BRINGING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY DURING
THAT TIME.
THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE
AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-MON...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND
EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/
LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SE...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME MVFR/IFR TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS BY
LATER TONIGHT...LASTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY
REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
650 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THE REGION WILL SEE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WITH
A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN AS SNOW. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP
RAPIDLY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. THE
ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT LIVED BUT SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATING
BY THE THE WEEKEND. &&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630AM UPDATE...REPORTS THAT SLEET AND LIGHT FZRA HAS MADE IT
NORTH TO NY BORDER IN WARREN COUNTY...SO UPDATED TO EXTEND MIXED
PRECIP ZONE TO CWA BORDER. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH COLD
FRONT APPROACHING CWA AND RADAR ECHOES STARTING TO DECREASE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HAS
OCCURRED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRED AT WFO AT
0720Z WITH SNOW ABRUPTLY TURNING TO FZ RAIN. WILL KEEP WSW FOR
WINTRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THEN FORECAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DID RAISE FZ RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF WSW. PRECIP WILL CUT OFF QUICKLY AFTER
12Z PER HRRR OUTPUT. LAUREL HIGHLANDS OBS SHOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IS SPOTS AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM W WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE STRONG...CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MUCH MORE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO THE STATE. LOWS WILL FALL BELOW 0 OVERNIGHT CLOSEST TO NYS
BORDER WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER WILL AID IN THE COOLING. ELSEWHERE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A COLD AND DRY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO LEAVE THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ENSEMBLE MEAN 5H PATTERN SHOWS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING SE INTO
THE REGION WED/THU. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS ASSOC SFC LOW
NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY WED...LIKELY PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PA. A WEAK LOW ON TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD
SUPPORT SOME LINGERING LGT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION /MAINLY
ALLEGHENIES/ INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MODERATING TEMPS AHEAD OF CLIPPER COULD RESULT IN A DAY OF NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS NEARLY CERTAIN BEHIND CLIPPER LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE VARYING. WITH
BFD...JST...AOO...LNS AND MDT AT IFR OR LOWER. UNV AND IPT ARE
JUST ABOVE...THOUGH GIVEN THE LOW CIGS UNV IS CLOSE AND SHOULD
WAVER INTO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE RESULT OF MOIST SE FLOW ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MARGINAL LLWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AS
CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
MARKED IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-18Z MONDAY...AS LOW PRES
PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...AND DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD STRONG GUSTY WINDS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS
TO ARND 40KTS ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AND EVENING...AS STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF PA.
OUTLOOK...
MON...AM RAIN/SNOW AND LOW CIGS. PM GUSTY NW WINDS.
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...AM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
THU...AM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ033>036-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024>028-056-057-059-063.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...CERU/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...USHERING IN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS. COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADING BACK OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STEADILY MOVE EAST AND CLEAR
THE KCLT METRO AREA CIRCA 15Z. HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE ERN PIEDMONT...BUT THUNDER NOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAMP DOWN QUICKLY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS A
DRY SLOT WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL COME UP RAPIDLY IN
THE COLD ADVECTION POST FROPA FLOW...AND UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SNOW SHOWER RATES OVER THE WRN MTNS AS SNOW LEVELS FALL
THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
WELL PLACED...WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
TODAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE VALLEYS...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY TROUBLE SPOT IN THE FORECAST. THE
LATEST RAP PROFILES SHOW 40+ KT WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM KGSO TO KHKY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER VALUES FROM
KCLT TO KGSP AND INTO GA. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ADVISORIES...BUT
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE TACKED ON TO THE EAST IF ANY
FURTHERN STRENGTHENING TRENDS ARE NOTED.
NW FLOW MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WILL DRY UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SWIFTLY MOVING BUT
SHALLOW CLIPPER WAVE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
20S ACROSS THE REGION. BLACK ICE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUE. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPLAND SOUTH THRU TUE NIGHT...HEIGHTS THEN
FALLING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT DIVING INTO THAT AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND OFFSHORE WED IN
RESPONSE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING THICKNESSES. OUR
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW DAILY NORMALS...WITH NEAR NORMAL MINS WED MRNG.
MAXES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE...PERHAPS MAKING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER RH DOES NOT LOOK TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FIRE WX.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...AT 00Z THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A LOW WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GULF
TOWARD FLORIDA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS RATHER SPARSE...
ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF WHERE IT ONLY REACHES THE MTNS
DRYING UP AS IT CROSSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY.
VARIOUS MODELS HAVE THE GULF LOW PASSING CLOSEST TO OUR AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST FLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE ECMWF OVER PIEDMONT
SECTIONS AROUND 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PASSES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH SINKS SE TO BE ALIGNED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST AT 00Z SATURDAY. THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH WILL BE MODIFYING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
TO BEING NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO COME OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THEN DIG OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. THE RESULTING 500MB TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TERRITORY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT 12Z MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ONE LAST ROUND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH 13Z BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MVFR TEMPO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS BRIEF
PERIOD...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY WITH FROPA 14Z AND THEN NW AND
QUITE GUSTY AFTER 17Z. THE AFTN WILL BRING THE PERIOD OF DEEPEST
MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION FLOW...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...AND ISOLD GUSTS EVEN HIGHER. WINDS WILL ABATE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS.
AT KAVL...WINDS HAVED TURNED NW WITH FROPA...AND GUSTS WILL BEGIN
AGAIN SOON. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE BETTER MIXING STARTS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
THE AIRFIELD DURING THE PEAK OF THE NW FLOW MOISTURE LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE CHANCES ONLY WARRANT A VCSH MENTION AT PRESENT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON TODAY...AND SOME GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR AT THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCOURING OCCURS IN THE NW FLOW
FOLLOWING FROPA. NW FLOW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT AREA LIKELY AT TIMES
TODAY...AND PERHAPS NEAR 40 KT CLOSER TO KHKY THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
ABATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE REGION THU INTO
FRI.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-06Z
KCLT LOW 46% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP LOW 53% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 64% MED 62% HIGH 100% MED 60%
KHKY MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU LOW 53% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND LOW 46% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062-063.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035-064-065-
501>507-509.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...USHERING IN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS. COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADING BACK OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST...THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST
WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
MTNS 09Z THROUGH 12Z...AND GENERALLY EAST OF CLT BY 15Z. THE BEST
SRLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ALREADY MOVING EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THE SRN MTN WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOWERS. CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST GOING FORWARD INCLUDE THUNDER POTENTIAL...WIND
GUSTS...AND SNOWFALL.
ISOLD THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTREME SRN/ERN PIEDMONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WHERE MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SFC TO 1 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS A ROBUST 40 KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR NO SFC BASED CAPE IS SHOWING UP IN
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
IN EXCESS OF 6 DEG/KM SHOULD CROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND
DAYBREAK...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER DPVA WILL CROSS THE REGION MAINLY AROUND 12Z...WITH A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN VERY QUICKLY FROM THE SW 12Z TO 15Z.
WINDS WILL COME UP RAPIDLY IN THE COLD ADVECTION POST FROPA
FLOW...AND UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SNOW SHOWER RATES OVER THE
WRN MTNS. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORIES LOOK WELL
PLACED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES TODAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE VALLEYS...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH LIKELY. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY OUT OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS WHERE RAP PROFILES SUGGEST 45 KT
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. A HIGH WIND
WARNING WAS CONTEMPLATED FOR THE NRN MTNS...BUT RECENT EVENTS WITH
50 KT MODEL INDICATED 850 MB JETS HAVE FAILED TO PRODUCE
DAMAGE...AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE MAY BE CURTAILED BY AN INVERSION
ALOFT.
NW FLOW MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WILL DRY UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SWIFTLY MOVING BUT
SHALLOW CLIPPER WAVE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
20S ACROSS THE REGION. BLACK ICE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUE. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPLAND SOUTH THRU TUE NIGHT...HEIGHTS THEN
FALLING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT DIVING INTO THAT AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND OFFSHORE WED IN
RESPONSE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING THICKNESSES. OUR
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW DAILY NORMALS...WITH NEAR NORMAL MINS WED MRNG.
MAXES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE...PERHAPS MAKING FOR UNCOMFORTABLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER RH DOES NOT LOOK TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FIRE WX.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...AT 00Z THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A LOW WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GULF
TOWARD FLORIDA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS RATHER SPARSE...
ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF WHERE IT ONLY REACHES THE MTNS
DRYING UP AS IT CROSSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS ON THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY.
VARIOUS MODELS HAVE THE GULF LOW PASSING CLOSEST TO OUR AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST FLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE ECMWF OVER PIEDMONT
SECTIONS AROUND 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PASSES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGH SINKS SE TO BE ALIGNED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST AT 00Z SATURDAY. THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH WILL BE MODIFYING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
TO BEING NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO COME OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THEN DIG OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. THE RESULTING 500MB TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TERRITORY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT 12Z MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POISED TO MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRFIELD WILL BRING INCREASED MVFR RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS TEMPO
IFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER 08Z. CONDITIONS MAY THEN ALTERNATE BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR AS STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW CREATES VARIABLE CEILINGS. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH THE COLD FROPA TURNING
WINDS WEST THEN NW 14Z TO 17Z...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIFTING. THE AFTN
WILL BRING THE PERIOD OF DEEPEST MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION
FLOW...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES...AND ISOLD
GUSTS EVEN HIGHER. WINDS WILL ABATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AT KAVL...GUSTY SRLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NW WITH FROPA 10Z THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE BETTER SHOWERS...AND THEN STEADIER MVFR DURING THE PEAK
NW FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE
AIRFIELD DURING THE PEAK OF THE NW FLOW MOISTURE...BUT THE CHANCES
ONLY WARRANT A VCSH MENTION AT PRESENT. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE
COMMON TODAY...AND SOME GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CIGS WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT THE
FOOTHILL TAF SITES IN THE STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VARIABLE SHOWER
RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. FROPA FROM 12Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING
WILL TURN WINDS W THEN NW...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT LIKELY AT TIMES
TODAY...AND PERHAPS NEAR 40 KT CLOSER TO KHKY THIS AFTN.
RESTRICTIONS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL ABATE
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE REGION THU INTO
FRI.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT MED 78% HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 66% HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 80% MED 71% HIGH 100% MED 76%
KHKY MED 71% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 69% HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 72% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062-063.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062>064.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ035-064-065-501>507-509.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
710 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS FAR SWRN SD...PRIMARILY
FALL RIVER AND SHANNON COUNTIES ALONG WITH FAR SRN CUSTER COUNTY. RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW W TO E ORIENTED SNOW BANDS ACROSS THIS
AREA AND LATE RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL
VERY NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT...BUT
HAVE RAISED ACCUMS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
RADAR RETURNS SHOW SNOW IS A BIT MORE WDSPRD TO THE NORTH/EAST
OF THE BLKHLS SO HAVE EXPANDED/RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING THAT
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND
WESTERN WY. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. KUDX
RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. TEMPS
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE 40S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS FROM THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
BRINGING AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO MOST AREAS. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST WY AND AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN SD...AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO NEB. 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH LATEST 18Z RUNS MOSTLY SHOW A SLIGHT TREND FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE BACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR
POURING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS BY MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...COLDEST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z...BUT
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY. WILL GO
WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. LOCAL 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL CO. ELSEWHERE...ZERO TO ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEENS FROM MUCH OF NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...MOST
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST CWA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
SNOW COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND ALONG
THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA. SMALL CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE REBUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
WDSPRD SNOW IS SPREADING FROM FAR NERN WY THROUGH MUCH OF WRN SD.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS FAR SWRN SD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING WEST
OF THE MS RIVER WITH SOME HOLES APPEARING OVER WEST TN. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.
CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE KY BORDER TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 30 ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER OTRW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SJM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
.UPDATE...
RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A DUSTING ON CARS IN MCKENZIE
TN IN NORTHWEST TN. UPDATED TO INCLUDE UNTIL MID-MORNING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TN...AND ISOLATED
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS BEING INDICATED.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FEEDING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION.
OTHER THAN THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER TODAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY
UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY AND WILL
REACH HIGHS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS ALONG THE MO
AND KY BORDERS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAP MODEL KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN
RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING A COLD MORNING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND IN THE
AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. STILL HAVE TO
WORK OUT THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MO WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE TX COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF. KEPT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IF THE FASTER GFS VERIFIES THEN RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW TO OUR SOUTH AS THE
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...BUT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND MORE OVER THE MIDSOUTH...PRODUCING SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE DISTURBANCE AND INDICATES ABOUT 1/2 INCH OR LESS SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW...TOOK MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. CONTINUED WORDING OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW WITH THE MODELS STILL NOT IN SYNC.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT ANY SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WIND TURN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH JBR
ALREADY SHOWING IMPROVEMENT ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH...THEREFORE
HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER
18-21Z...EARLIER WEST...LATER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR AT MEM...TUP...AND MKL TO START...BUT EXPECTING VFR WEATHER
AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUING THEN THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE WILL SUBSIDE
BEFORE SUNSET...VEERING SOUTHERLY LATE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1016 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NW WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING WEST
OF THE MS RIVER WITH SOME HOLES APPEARING OVER WEST TN. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.
CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE KY BORDER TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 30 ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER OTRW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SJM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
UPDATE...
RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A DUSTING ON CARS IN MCKENZIE
TN IN NORTHWEST TN. UPDATED TO INCLUDE UNTIL MID-MORNING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TN...AND ISOLATED
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS BEING INDICATED.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FEEDING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION.
OTHER THAN THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER TODAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY
UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY AND WILL
REACH HIGHS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS ALONG THE MO
AND KY BORDERS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAP MODEL KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN
RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING A COLD MORNING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND IN THE
AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. STILL HAVE TO
WORK OUT THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MO WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE TX COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF. KEPT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IF THE FASTER GFS VERIFIES THEN RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW TO OUR SOUTH AS THE
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...BUT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND MORE OVER THE MIDSOUTH...PRODUCING SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE DISTURBANCE AND INDICATES ABOUT 1/2 INCH OR LESS SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW...TOOK MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. CONTINUED WORDING OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW WITH THE MODELS STILL NOT IN SYNC.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT ANY SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WIND TURN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH JBR
ALREADY SHOWING IMPROVEMENT ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH...THEREFORE
HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER
18-21Z...EARLIER WEST...LATER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A DUSTING ON CARS IN MCKENZIE
TN IN NORTHWEST TN. UPDATED TO INCLUDE UNTIL MID-MORNING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TN...AND ISOLATED
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS BEING INDICATED.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FEEDING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION.
OTHER THAN THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER TODAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY
UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY AND WILL
REACH HIGHS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS ALONG THE MO
AND KY BORDERS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAP MODEL KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN
RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING A COLD MORNING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND IN THE
AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. STILL HAVE TO
WORK OUT THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MO WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE TX COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF. KEPT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IF THE FASTER GFS VERIFIES THEN RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW TO OUR SOUTH AS THE
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...BUT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND MORE OVER THE MIDSOUTH...PRODUCING SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE DISTURBANCE AND INDICATES ABOUT 1/2 INCH OR LESS SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW...TOOK MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. CONTINUED WORDING OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW WITH THE MODELS STILL NOT IN SYNC.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT ANY SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WIND TURN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH JBR
ALREADY SHOWING IMPROVEMENT ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH...THEREFORE
HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER
18-21Z...EARLIER WEST...LATER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
518 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FEEDING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION.
OTHER THAN THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER TODAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY
UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY AND WILL
REACH HIGHS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS ALONG THE MO
AND KY BORDERS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAP MODEL KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN
RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING A COLD MORNING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND IN THE
AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. STILL HAVE TO
WORK OUT THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MO WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE TX COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF. KEPT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IF THE FASTER GFS VERIFIES THEN RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW TO OUR SOUTH AS THE
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...BUT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND MORE OVER THE MIDSOUTH...PRODUCING SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE DISTURBANCE AND INDICATES ABOUT 1/2 INCH OR LESS SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW...TOOK MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. CONTINUED WORDING OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW WITH THE MODELS STILL NOT IN SYNC.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT ANY SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WIND TURN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
JCL
.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH JBR
ALREADY SHOWING IMPROVEMENT ABOVE THAT THRESHHOLD. WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH...THEREFORE
HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER
18-21Z...EARLIER WEST...LATER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
423 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FEEDING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION.
OTHER THAN THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER TODAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY
UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
REGION. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY AND WILL
REACH HIGHS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS ALONG THE MO
AND KY BORDERS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAP MODEL KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TN
RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING A COLD MORNING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND IN THE
AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. STILL HAVE TO
WORK OUT THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MO WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE TX COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF. KEPT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IF THE FASTER GFS VERIFIES THEN RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW TO OUR SOUTH AS THE
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...BUT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND MORE OVER THE MIDSOUTH...PRODUCING SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE DISTURBANCE AND INDICATES ABOUT 1/2 INCH OR LESS SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH. FOR NOW...TOOK MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. CONTINUED WORDING OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW WITH THE MODELS STILL NOT IN SYNC.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT ANY SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WIND TURN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AREA WIDE EARLY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT...FROM THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW BUT REMAIN NORTHERLY.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1120 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.AVIATION...
NOW THAT THE STRATUS AT KDHT HAS STARTED TO MIX OUT ALL TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. AS SUNSET APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN AND ALLOW WINDS TO DROP TO 10KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT..BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
PREVAILING GIVEN STEADY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING 11-3.9 IR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED PERSISTENT
STRATUS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALUE WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES. WATER VAPOR AND
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS LOOP SHOW PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD IN
INCREASING MOMENTUM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TODAY SO WILL LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING ALOFT IN ADDITION TO FULL SUN...MIXING...AND AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ONLY A MODESTLY COLD AIR
MASS...AM LESS CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES
THAT ARE TYPICAL OF SHALLOW VERY COLD ARCTIC FRONTS. HAVE THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE GFS AS THE GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE AN OUTLIER WITH HOW FAST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE (THAT IS FORCING THIS COLD SURGE) MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS CHOSEN TIMING IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TIMING THAT WE HAVE
AT THIS POINT NECESSITATED A NON-CLIMO DIURNAL CURVE WHICH WAS
CONSTRUCTED USING HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID FOR WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...IF THE
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING OCCURS...THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEED NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MADE
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES INCLUDE A GOOD CHANCE OF POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS
LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
DEEPEST LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES WITH NON-
MEASURABLE LIQUID AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GIVEN A MODESTLY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT CONFIDENCE IN EVEN TRACE
AMOUNTS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES
BUILDING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE
WARMEST DAYS WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 70S. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FORCE A MODEST COOL SURGE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
538 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.AVIATION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS CURRENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
WESTERN 2/3 OF TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT AROUND 15Z. SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT FROM MID-MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. GUSTS
EXPECTED TO CEASE AROUND 22Z OR 23Z...WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
VEERING TO WESTERLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. NO OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS
OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATER HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING 11-3.9 IR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED PERSISTENT
STRATUS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALUE WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES. WATER VAPOR AND
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS LOOP SHOW PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD IN
INCREASING MOMENTUM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TODAY SO WILL LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING ALOFT IN ADDITION TO FULL SUN...MIXING...AND AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ONLY A MODESTLY COLD AIR
MASS...AM LESS CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES
THAT ARE TYPICAL OF SHALLOW VERY COLD ARCTIC FRONTS. HAVE THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE GFS AS THE GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE AN OUTLIER WITH HOW FAST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE (THAT IS FORCING THIS COLD SURGE) MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS CHOSEN TIMING IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TIMING THAT WE HAVE
AT THIS POINT NECESSITATED A NON-CLIMO DIURNAL CURVE WHICH WAS
CONSTRUCTED USING HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID FOR WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...IF THE
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING OCCURS...THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEED NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MADE
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES INCLUDE A GOOD CHANCE OF POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS
LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
DEEPEST LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES WITH NON-
MEASURABLE LIQUID AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GIVEN A MODESTLY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT CONFIDENCE IN EVEN TRACE
AMOUNTS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES
BUILDING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE
WARMEST DAYS WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 70S. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FORCE A MODEST COOL SURGE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 55 31 65 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 5
BEAVER OK 51 24 68 30 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
BOISE CITY OK 60 30 66 35 44 / 0 0 0 0 5
BORGER TX 56 32 65 37 51 / 0 0 0 0 5
BOYS RANCH TX 59 27 66 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 5
CANYON TX 56 29 66 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
CLARENDON TX 50 30 62 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALHART TX 58 31 64 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 5
GUYMON OK 56 28 69 33 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
HEREFORD TX 59 28 65 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
LIPSCOMB TX 48 29 66 35 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
PAMPA TX 50 30 66 35 47 / 0 0 0 0 5
SHAMROCK TX 45 26 60 35 49 / 0 0 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 47 30 61 37 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
326 AM MST MON FEB 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK. EXPECT VERY FEW CLOUDS...AND WITH THE BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE BUNCH LOOK TO BE THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY QUIET WEEK...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...IS
SHAPING UP FOR US AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MAINTAINS ITSELF FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE STRATUS OF
THE FAR EASTERN CWA REMAINING DAMMED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CLOUDS NOT MOVING WEST MUCH BEHIND THE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT THAT
EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLAND ZONES. SATELLITE SHOWING DECENT AREA OF
STRATUS FORMING WEST OF I-25 AND NORTH OF I-10 BUT THE FEW OBS IN
THIS DO NOT SHOW ANY FOG...JUST LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF EL PASO WITH ZERO
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. TO THE EAST...
DEPRESSIONS ARE TOO HIGH AND WINDS A BIT TOO MUCH YET. WILL LET
GRIDS/ZONE PACKAGE SPELL OUT PATCHY FOG AND FORGO ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NOW.
OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF. WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT
PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AS SMALL UPPER TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE FRONT SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEST COOLING
THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT SOME COOLER AIR FILTERS
DOWN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR A BIT OF COOLING ON SUNDAY. OTHER
THAN THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING ALL WEEK...WITH
HIGHS 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND
MAY REACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z...
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH PERIOD. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER
THE LOWLANDS WEST OF EL PASO WITH VSBYS BTWN 1/2SM AND 3SM BKN008
TIL 17Z. FURTHER EAST...BKN/OVC060 TOPS 090...WITH A FEW AREAS OF
1SM BR...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALAMOGORDO TO
CORNUDAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM WEEK AHEAD AS UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE OTERO MESA/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER 18Z. VERY FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH`S WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TODAY BUT THEN
FALL INTO THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 60 37 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 37 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 35 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 32 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 25 49 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 36 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 34 62 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 62 33 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 62 33 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 39 66 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 32 63 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 37 63 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 35 59 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 35 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 34 64 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 36 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 31 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 59 33 67 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 35 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 36 64 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 31 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 26 54 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 52 31 55 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 54 32 58 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 38 59 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 33 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 33 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 56 33 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 59 28 62 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 58 25 60 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 36 59 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 32 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 31 65 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 30 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 33 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17 HEFNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
318 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING 11-3.9 IR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED PERSISTENT
STRATUS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALUE WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES. WATER VAPOR AND
500 MB RAP ANALYSIS LOOP SHOW PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD IN
INCREASING MOMENTUM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TODAY SO WILL LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON. RISING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING ALOFT IN ADDITION TO FULL SUN...MIXING...AND AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ONLY A MODESTLY COLD AIR
MASS...AM LESS CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES
THAT ARE TYPICAL OF SHALLOW VERY COLD ARCTIC FRONTS. HAVE THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE GFS AS THE GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE AN OUTLIER WITH HOW FAST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE (THAT IS FORCING THIS COLD SURGE) MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS CHOSEN TIMING IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TIMING THAT WE HAVE
AT THIS POINT NECESSITATED A NON-CLIMO DIURNAL CURVE WHICH WAS
CONSTRUCTED USING HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID FOR WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...IF THE
SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING OCCURS...THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEED NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MADE
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING. OTHER SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES INCLUDE A GOOD CHANCE OF POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS
LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
DEEPEST LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES WITH NON-
MEASURABLE LIQUID AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GIVEN A MODESTLY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT CONFIDENCE IN EVEN TRACE
AMOUNTS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES
BUILDING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE
WARMEST DAYS WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 70S. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FORCE A MODEST COOL SURGE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 55 31 65 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 5
BEAVER OK 51 24 68 30 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
BOISE CITY OK 60 30 66 35 44 / 0 0 0 0 5
BORGER TX 56 32 65 37 51 / 0 0 0 0 5
BOYS RANCH TX 59 27 66 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 5
CANYON TX 56 29 66 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
CLARENDON TX 50 30 62 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALHART TX 58 31 64 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 5
GUYMON OK 56 28 69 33 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
HEREFORD TX 59 28 65 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
LIPSCOMB TX 48 29 66 35 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
PAMPA TX 50 30 66 35 47 / 0 0 0 0 5
SHAMROCK TX 45 26 60 35 49 / 0 0 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 47 30 61 37 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
704 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND THE
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
WHILE PORTIONS OF ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES COULD STILL SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF ACCUMULATION...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH OR LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
EITHER BE PRECIPITATION FREE OR JUST HAVE FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS:
1. DIMINISHING SNOW THIS EVENING
2. SNOW...OR NOT...SOUTH OF I-90 ON WEDNESDAY
3. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NEED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON?
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...DEEP
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...AND A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES HAS
RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING OUR AREA. THIS BAND EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN
THIS BAND. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS COLD WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS...DUE TO THE COLD START...FRESH SNOWPACK...
CLOUDS...FALLING SNOW AND 925MB TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -14C RANGE.
SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG I-80 IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH CAN
BE SEEN OVER ALBERTA DROPPING SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 0
TO 5 ABOVE RANGE.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO LITTLE CHANGE IS REQUIRED. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
SOME OF THE ADVISORIES EARLY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SNOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLDER 925MB AIR IS PROGGED TO ADVECT IN TO PLACE THAT
MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WEAK OMEGA IS
PROGGED IN THIS CLOUD DECK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. IN
FACT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACTUAL ACCUMULATING SNOW
THERE. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...BUT
THE ADVECTION OF COLDER 925MB AIR SHOULD STILL BRING READINGS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND SNOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ZONE OCCURS
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
CURRENT WARM FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF I-70. 03.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
PUSH THIS ZONE AND SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. 03.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO NOW DRY OUT NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. GIVEN THIS TREND IN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF...HAVE REMOVED THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT PICK UP SNOW...EXPECT FALLING LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DROPS SOUTH. 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM
-12 TO -14C AT 12Z TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z. THE NORTH WINDS WHICH
COULD GUST TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY ALONG/WEST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 52...ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS COME IN ANY STRONGER.
RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS AND WIND CHILLS
2. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY
3. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
COLD ADVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -16 AND
-20C...WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK BELOW
ZERO...WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO
20 BELOW. WINDS DECOUPLING SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
NEED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
LATE TO GIVE SOME BREEZE.
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR. COULD SEE HIGHS REACH TO OR
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG I-90. A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN...WITH SOME TREND TO DROP IT FARTHER
SOUTHWEST. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AND REQUIRING A MENTION OF
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.
THE WEEKEND IS PROVING MORE INTERESTING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH...POSSIBLY ONE POTENT ONE
THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS SHOW A
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SETTING UP FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST IOWA AS WELL. AT A MINIMUM IT APPEARS AN ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED...BUT LOCATION IS STILL WELL UP IN THE AIR.
COLDER...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MONDAY...RESULTING FROM DEEPER TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
UPPER RIDGE COMING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY EAST AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED PAST KRST AND WILL MOVE PAST KLSE VERY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME REPORTS OF A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 03.21Z RAP DOES NOT REALLY
SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF ICE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE MAIN SNOW
BAND HAS PASSED...SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LAST
VERY LONG OR CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. SOME POCKETS OF VFR CEILINGS
AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KLSE...BUT EXPECT THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 03.18Z NAM SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW ANY CHANGES IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME WEAK LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. THIS LIFT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT KRST THAT WILL
REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO SO
FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN IT DOWN TO MVFR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS:
1. DIMINISHING SNOW THIS EVENING
2. SNOW...OR NOT...SOUTH OF I-90 ON WEDNESDAY
3. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NEED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON?
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...DEEP
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...AND A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES HAS
RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING OUR AREA. THIS BAND EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN
THIS BAND. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS COLD WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS...DUE TO THE COLD START...FRESH SNOWPACK...
CLOUDS...FALLING SNOW AND 925MB TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -14C RANGE.
SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG I-80 IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH CAN
BE SEEN OVER ALBERTA DROPPING SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 0
TO 5 ABOVE RANGE.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO LITTLE CHANGE IS REQUIRED. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
SOME OF THE ADVISORIES EARLY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SNOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLDER 925MB AIR IS PROGGED TO ADVECT IN TO PLACE THAT
MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WEAK OMEGA IS
PROGGED IN THIS CLOUD DECK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. IN
FACT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACTUAL ACCUMULATING SNOW
THERE. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...BUT
THE ADVECTION OF COLDER 925MB AIR SHOULD STILL BRING READINGS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND SNOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ZONE OCCURS
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
CURRENT WARM FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF I-70. 03.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
PUSH THIS ZONE AND SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. 03.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO NOW DRY OUT NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. GIVEN THIS TREND IN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF...HAVE REMOVED THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT PICK UP SNOW...EXPECT FALLING LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DROPS SOUTH. 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM
-12 TO -14C AT 12Z TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z. THE NORTH WINDS WHICH
COULD GUST TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY ALONG/WEST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 52...ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS COME IN ANY STRONGER.
RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS AND WIND CHILLS
2. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY
3. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
COLD ADVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -16 AND
-20C...WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK BELOW
ZERO...WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO
20 BELOW. WINDS DECOUPLING SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
NEED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
LATE TO GIVE SOME BREEZE.
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR. COULD SEE HIGHS REACH TO OR
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG I-90. A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN...WITH SOME TREND TO DROP IT FARTHER
SOUTHWEST. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AND REQUIRING A MENTION OF
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.
THE WEEKEND IS PROVING MORE INTERESTING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH...POSSIBLY ONE POTENT ONE
THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS SHOW A
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SETTING UP FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST IOWA AS WELL. AT A MINIMUM IT APPEARS AN ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED...BUT LOCATION IS STILL WELL UP IN THE AIR.
COLDER...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MONDAY...RESULTING FROM DEEPER TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
UPPER RIDGE COMING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY EAST AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED PAST KRST AND WILL MOVE PAST KLSE VERY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME REPORTS OF A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 03.21Z RAP DOES NOT REALLY
SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF ICE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE MAIN SNOW
BAND HAS PASSED...SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LAST
VERY LONG OR CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. SOME POCKETS OF VFR CEILINGS
AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KLSE...BUT EXPECT THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 03.18Z NAM SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW ANY CHANGES IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME WEAK LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. THIS LIFT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT KRST THAT WILL
REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO SO
FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN IT DOWN TO MVFR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ010-
011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
500 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. WILL IT STAY DRY TONIGHT
2. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
3. INCOMING SNOW FOR TUESDAY...IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. 2 SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITHIN THIS FLOW WERE OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA AND COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...DESPITE LOOKING DECENT ON WATER VAPOR...HAS BEEN
PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS IS DUE TO
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 12Z WERE
GENERALLY 0.05-0.10 INCHES...OR AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
DRY AIR WAS ALSO COLD WITH 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -14 AND -17C AT 18Z
TODAY PER RAP ANALYSIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO
MICHIGAN. THUS...DESPITE SUNSHINE...THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND THE
COLD AIR ALOFT HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO...COLDEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE
ALBEDO VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. LAST ITEM OF NOTE WAS A POTENT TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO COME THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS EVEN
TRENDED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HEADING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY 04Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...FEEL CONFIDENT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. THIS IS IN LINE TOO WITH ALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT. STILL WE SHOULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. ITS
POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING BETWEEN 08-10Z...
PROVIDED ECMWF 925MB RH FIELD IS CORRECT IN NOT SHOWING ANY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEFORE MORE CIRRUS MOVES IN.
IF THIS CLEAR PERIOD MATERIALIZES...WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT SO
TEMPERATURES COULD TANK EASILY BELOW ZERO. WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FEEL THE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY...AND THUS LOWERED
LOWS SOME TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.
FOR TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IS
PROGGED TO REACH NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE
IS A LONGER PERIOD TO BRING IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS
TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES...WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FRONTOLYSIS COUPLET BETWEEN 900-700MB...WITH ITS FORCING CORRELATED
NICELY WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...FEEL VERY CONFIDENT OF
SEEING A FLUFFY SNOW BAND SET UP.
TRACK...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
TO BE IMPACTED...AND IT COULD EVEN REACH AS FAR NORTH AS TAYLOR
COUNTY. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE MOST ACCUMULATION...EITHER AROUND I-
90 OR THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FOR NOW TOOK A COMPROMISE.
TIMING...SOME SNOW COULD ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER BY 18Z...BUT MUCH OF IT SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 18-00Z. THE
SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z.
AMOUNTS...MAXIMUM MODEL QPF IN THE 0.15 TO 0.2 RANGE SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT BASED ON THE FLUFFY SNOW IDEA UPWARDS OF A LOCALIZED 3
INCHES. MOST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...
THOUGH...DUE TO THE QUICK NATURE OF THE FORCING.
ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE TIMING COMING
THROUGH IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT ONE IN LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF QPF INCREASES. RIGHT NOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADDRESS IN OTHER SERVICES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. TRACK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
2. LOWS/WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE ADVISORY NEED
3. BRIEF WARM UP TOWARDS NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
4. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND
5. ANOTHER COLD SHOT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IS PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS
TROUGH APPROACHES ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEST TO EAST
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF
THIS BAND RANGES FROM SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE 02.12Z NAM/GFS WHICH
WOULD BE DRY FOR OUR AREA...AROUND I-80 FROM THE 02.12Z CANADIAN
WITH A BRIEF BRUSH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND AROUND
TO JUST NORTH OF I-80 FROM THE 02.00Z/12Z ECMWF WHICH COULD BRING
SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS I-90. HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. HOPEFULLY
LATER MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MORE BULLISH
ECMWF WOULD YIELD 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF I-90.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT DOES
LOOK BRISK DURING THE EVENING...BUT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT THE LIGHTENING
WINDS TO HELP THE WIND CHILL SITUATION AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK
BY WITHOUT AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TANK AS SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH. READINGS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ARE
LIKELY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROUGH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW SEPARATES AN ARCTIC
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND WARMER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVES
MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MODULATE HOW MUCH OF THE
WARMER AND COLDER AIR ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. TAKE FOR EXAMPLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHERE THE 02.12Z GFS BRINGS 850MB TEMPS
UP TO 2-9C ABOVE...WITH THE ECMWF NOT TOO DISSIMILAR. SNOWPACK AND
LOWER SUN ANGLE PREVENTS MIXING TO 850MB...BUT STILL WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS CLIMB AT LEAST BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. ALSO FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUT
PLACEMENT ISSUES/TIMING EXIST...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30-
50 RANGE PERSIST. THE BAND COULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY PER 02.12Z GFS
SO STILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SNOW...THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR TO OUR NORTH TO
FLOW IN. THUS...COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TAKING AIM ON IA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ONLY SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT. JUST TOO DRY AT THE SFC FOR
PCPN...PER SFC OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. NAM IS BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING NEAR SFC SATURATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL-
TIME SUPPORT...WILL KEEP ANY CIGS VFR FOR NOW.
LOOKS LIKE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SPINS INTO THE AREA. SATURATION IS BETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH SO THAT A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD OF -SN LOOKS LIKELY
FOR KRST/KLSE. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KRST.
VSBYS FROM 1-2SM ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. START
TIME LOOKS CLOSE TO 18Z FOR KRST...AND 19-20Z AT KLSE. SNOW SHOULD
CLEAR KRST BY 03Z AND KLSE TOWARD 05Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
204 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. WILL IT STAY DRY TONIGHT
2. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
3. INCOMING SNOW FOR TUESDAY...IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. 2 SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITHIN THIS FLOW WERE OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA AND COMING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...DESPITE LOOKING DECENT ON WATER VAPOR...HAS BEEN
PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS IS DUE TO
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 12Z WERE
GENERALLY 0.05-0.10 INCHES...OR AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
DRY AIR WAS ALSO COLD WITH 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -14 AND -17C AT 18Z
TODAY PER RAP ANALYSIS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO
MICHIGAN. THUS...DESPITE SUNSHINE...THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND THE
COLD AIR ALOFT HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO...COLDEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE
ALBEDO VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. LAST ITEM OF NOTE WAS A POTENT TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO COME THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE DAKOTAS HAS EVEN
TRENDED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HEADING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY 04Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...FEEL CONFIDENT TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. THIS IS IN LINE TOO WITH ALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT. STILL WE SHOULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. ITS
POSSIBLE WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING BETWEEN 08-10Z...
PROVIDED ECMWF 925MB RH FIELD IS CORRECT IN NOT SHOWING ANY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BEFORE MORE CIRRUS MOVES IN.
IF THIS CLEAR PERIOD MATERIALIZES...WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT SO
TEMPERATURES COULD TANK EASILY BELOW ZERO. WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FEEL THE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY...AND THUS LOWERED
LOWS SOME TOWARDS THE COLDER ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.
FOR TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA IS
PROGGED TO REACH NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE
IS A LONGER PERIOD TO BRING IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS
TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES...WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FRONTOLYSIS COUPLET BETWEEN 900-700MB...WITH ITS FORCING CORRELATED
NICELY WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...FEEL VERY CONFIDENT OF
SEEING A FLUFFY SNOW BAND SET UP.
TRACK...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
TO BE IMPACTED...AND IT COULD EVEN REACH AS FAR NORTH AS TAYLOR
COUNTY. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE MOST ACCUMULATION...EITHER AROUND I-
90 OR THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FOR NOW TOOK A COMPROMISE.
TIMING...SOME SNOW COULD ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER BY 18Z...BUT MUCH OF IT SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 18-00Z. THE
SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z.
AMOUNTS...MAXIMUM MODEL QPF IN THE 0.15 TO 0.2 RANGE SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT BASED ON THE FLUFFY SNOW IDEA UPWARDS OF A LOCALIZED 3
INCHES. MOST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...
THOUGH...DUE TO THE QUICK NATURE OF THE FORCING.
ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE TIMING COMING
THROUGH IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT ONE IN LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF QPF INCREASES. RIGHT NOW HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADDRESS IN OTHER SERVICES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST MON FEB 2 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. TRACK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
2. LOWS/WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE ADVISORY NEED
3. BRIEF WARM UP TOWARDS NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
4. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND
5. ANOTHER COLD SHOT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IS PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS
TROUGH APPROACHES ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEST TO EAST
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF
THIS BAND RANGES FROM SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE 02.12Z NAM/GFS WHICH
WOULD BE DRY FOR OUR AREA...AROUND I-80 FROM THE 02.12Z CANADIAN
WITH A BRIEF BRUSH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...AND AROUND
TO JUST NORTH OF I-80 FROM THE 02.00Z/12Z ECMWF WHICH COULD BRING
SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS I-90. HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. HOPEFULLY
LATER MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MORE BULLISH
ECMWF WOULD YIELD 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF I-90.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -16 TO -20C BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT DOES
LOOK BRISK DURING THE EVENING...BUT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT THE LIGHTENING
WINDS TO HELP THE WIND CHILL SITUATION AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK
BY WITHOUT AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL TANK AS SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH. READINGS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ARE
LIKELY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROUGH AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW SEPARATES AN ARCTIC
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND WARMER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVES
MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MODULATE HOW MUCH OF THE
WARMER AND COLDER AIR ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. TAKE FOR EXAMPLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHERE THE 02.12Z GFS BRINGS 850MB TEMPS
UP TO 2-9C ABOVE...WITH THE ECMWF NOT TOO DISSIMILAR. SNOWPACK AND
LOWER SUN ANGLE PREVENTS MIXING TO 850MB...BUT STILL WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS CLIMB AT LEAST BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. ALSO FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUT
PLACEMENT ISSUES/TIMING EXIST...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30-
50 RANGE PERSIST. THE BAND COULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY PER 02.12Z GFS
SO STILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SNOW...THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR TO OUR NORTH TO
FLOW IN. THUS...COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE
DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 8 TO 12K RANGE. SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES... WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CLOUDS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM AROUND
12-15K FEET TO 5-7K FEET. THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME MVFR AFTER 03.08Z. HOWEVER JUST
NOT SEEING THIS UPSTREAM...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...
1. DIMINISHING SNOW/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING
2. NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
3. HIGHS MONDAY
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE
COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SHORTWAVE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 AND THROUGH THE
REST OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WI...DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD ON A BRISK NORTHERLY BREEZE. NUMEROUS SITES
NORTH OF I-94 REPORTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO...AND AS MUCH
AS 20 BELOW IN NORTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES TOO WERE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO NORTH OF I-94. CLEARING SKIES REFLECT
THE DRIER...COLDER AIR. MAIN 1004MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...JUST EAST OF LINCOLN IL. HOWEVER...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS NORTH OF THIS LOW KEEPING THE BRISK
NORTH BREEZE GOING...WITH A 1034MB HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THE SNOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BY 00Z...GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OELWEIN TO
TOMAH...AND THEN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS
DIMINISHING...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BRISK THROUGH AT LEAST A GOOD
PORTION OF THE EVENING. 925MB WINDS AT 00Z RANGE FROM 25-35KT...
DROPPING TO 10-25KT AT 06Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD KEEP
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW GOING AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS...EVEN
WHEN THE SNOW ENDS...THUS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF CANCEL ANY
HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS MAY
GET CANCELLED EARLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SEEING DODGE CENTER HAS
IMPROVED TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY ALREADY.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NO
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE DUE TO
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR AROUND AND AHEAD OF IT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
TO BRING THE DAKOTAS SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...THUS DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND CLEARING THE SKIES OUT. WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY PLUMMET...AIDED TOO
BY 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -16 TO -18C. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW READINGS OF 10 BELOW...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR NEAR
AUSTIN MN AND IN TAYLOR COUNTY WI. DESPITE THE COLD READINGS...WIND
CHILLS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ABOVE THE -20F THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY.
A MUCH QUIETER BUT COLD DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS DOWN INTO THE SIOUX FALLS AREA BY 00Z. 925MB
TEMPS DONT START WARMING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...AND WITH FRESH
SNOW...HIGHS ONLY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. ITS
POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST IOWA ONLY REACH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS SUGGESTED BY THE 01.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
LONG TERM CONCERNS...
1. BRIEF LIGHT SNOW MAKER MONDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA
2. ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90
3. POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY MORNING
4. POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF WARM UP...BUT BREEZY...FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND NORTHEAST MO BY 06Z TUESDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED
SOUTHWEST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE ITS POTENT
NATURE/LOOK...MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH QPF WITH IT DUE TO
DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM MONDAY...WITH THE GFS ENTIRELY DRY. GIVEN ITS
STRENGTH FEEL THE NEED TO INCLUDE A LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR
MONDAY EVENING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH
THE SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE GUIDANCE...SHIFTED THE CHANCES A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. SHOULD ANY SNOW OCCUR...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS
ACCUMULATE.
AFTER A QUIET OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
A BIT COOL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING TROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...HAS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. AS SUCH...01.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME EVEN
SHOWING POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 0.10 OF QPF IN 6 HOURS. SOME
TRACK ISSUES AGAIN EXIST...WITH THE STRONGEST CONSENSUS FOR THE SNOW
TO MOVE THROUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90. UNLESS THE SHORTWAVE
BECOMES STRONGER IN LATER RUNS...FEEL THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD STAY PERSISTENT. THUS...DID RAISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TOWARDS 50 ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. MAY END UP
ACCUMULATING 1-2 INCHES. SOME CONCERN TOO FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
END AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS ICE IS LOST ALOFT...BUT ITS VERY
POSSIBLE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS TOO ONCE WE LOSE THE ICE.
THEREFORE...HAVE YET TO INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETTING UP ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART IS THE ARCTIC AIR ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH. 925MB TEMPS PLUMMET FROM -10 TO -13C AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
TO -18 TO -20C AT 12Z THURSDAY. A SOMEWHAT BRISK NORTHERLY BREEZE IS
PROGGED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIMINISHING COULD KEEP US JUST OUT OF A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEED FOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD TANK
INSTEAD...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES ARE CLEAR. STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS REGIME AND
THINKING ARCTIC AIR COMING IN WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FAST MOVING SUCH THAT WEAK UPPER RIDGING COMES
IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING BEYOND
INTO SUNDAY. THUS...AFTER THE COLD START THURSDAY MORNING WE WILL BE
ON THE WARMING TREND HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL A LOT
OF SPREAD AMONGST ECMWF GUIDANCE REGARDING THE HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT GENERAL TREND SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL.
GFS/ECMWF 925MB WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 20-40KT ON FRIDAY...THUS
SUGGESTING IT COULD BE A BIT BREEZY. SOMETHING WELL HAVE TO WATCH
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS A FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUAL POSITION AND TIMING HAS VARIED
SOMEWHAT...REQUIRING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ZONE FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BETTER PART
OF MONDAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN DECREASING AS THE LOW EXITS
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 18Z
MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS IOWA MONDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY -SN SOUTHWEST OF KRST/KLSE...BUT WOULD BRING AT
LEAST SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CIGS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE - MORESO OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
358 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...
CURRENTLY...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AND WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM SFC TO CIG EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO TO NRN TX.
ANALYSIS FURTHER SHOWS SEVERAL MID LVL VORT CELLS AHEAD OF THE TROF
AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF OMEGA LIFT THRU THE H85-H30 LYR. DEEP LYR
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH H85-H30 MEAN RH VALUES
INCREASING FROM ARND 60PCT OVER THE ERN GOMEX TO AOA 90PCT BTWN SRN
LA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A LIFTING/ZONAL H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC A BROAD SFC LOW HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF COAST. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED
A BROAD SFC LOW TO FORM OVER THE WRN GOMEX ALONG A MID LVL THETA-E
BNDRY (THE REMNANTS OF THE MONDAY FROPA) THAT EXTENDS EWD THRU THE
FL STRAITS ACRS THE NRN BAHAMAS. OVERHEAD...A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WX PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
EXTENDING BACK TO THE TX COAST.
EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA...KMFL/KEYW MEASURING THE HIGHEST WITH PWATS ARND 1.3"...
DECREASING TO 0.7" AT KTBW...THEN TO 0.5" AT KXMR/KJAX/KTAE. THE
CENTRAL/NRN RAOBS ALL SHOW A DEEP MID/UPR LVL SATURATION LYR WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BTWN THE H90-H60 LYR.
TODAY-TONIGHT...
ALL MAJOR ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...A CLASSIC "TOP-DOWN" MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GOMEX IS IN
A FAVORABLE AREA FOR GRADUAL DEEPENING WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GOMEX BY 00Z TONIGHT. MID LVL WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE SW...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE TIMING/ONSET OF THE PRECIP.
WITH THE H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND A LIFTING/ZONAL JET ALOFT
OVER THE GULF REGION...THE ADVANCE OF THE DVLPG GOMEX LOW WILL BE
IMPEDED. A 110KT JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF THE PAC NW WILL ALLOW A
SECONDARY TROF TO SWING DOWN OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS LATER TODAY...
WHICH WILL PICK UP AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE SRN SHORT WAVE...
GIVING IT THE NECESSARY PUNCH TO PUSH THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE
WRN ATLC TO ALLOW THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GOMEX TO PUSH ACRS
CENTRAL FL...BUT MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFT SUNSET.
WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU EARLY AFTN...GRADUALLY STEPPING UP
PRECIP CHANCES AFT 18Z FROM N TO S. NO MENTIONABLE POPS S OF
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL AFT 00Z...BUT BCMG LIKELY/DEFINITIVE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD. SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
E/SE THRU THE DAY...THOUGH ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO ALONG AND N
OF I-4 (U60S/L70S) AND WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF AVG TO THE S (M70S).
ONSHORE FLOW DVLPG BY MIDDAY WILL PUSH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
M/U50S...KEEPING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U50S ALONG AN N OF
I-4...L/M60S TO THE S...ABOUT 8-10F DEG ABV AVG.
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ANTICIPATED DURING THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. EVEN SO...THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ISOLD
TSTMS TO DVLP WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF 0-3KM HELICITY AFT 00Z (BTWN 200-250) WHICH
WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED TSTM GUST POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...FROPA WILL
BE SLOW AS IT PLOWS INTO THE ATLC RIDGE...A SOLID 12-18HR RAIN EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED. QPF NEAR 1.0" AREAWIDE...LCL AMOUNTS ABV 2.0" PSBL.
THU...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE EAST OF THE CAPE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NE AND PULL A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING SE AND
THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL INTO THE LATE AFTN HOURS. HEALTHY
DEEP LAYER LIFT EARLY WITH REGION UNDER THE RR QUAD OF THE MID ATLC
UPPER JET AND UPR DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL ALLOW KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES
IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS EARLY BEFORE FRONT PULLS SE
BY AFTN. STRONGER STORM CHANCES APPEAR CONFINED TO FAR SRN SECTIONS
IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONT PULLS
THROUGH THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK WITH POPS
FROM 60-70 PCT LAKE COUNTY TO 80 PCT ACROSS N CSTL AND SRN SECTIONS
WILL EXIT QUICKLY SE INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AIR
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 60S SOUTH BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EXCEPT LWR-MID 70S SRN AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY.
THU NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS UP IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
NORTH AND MAINLY 50S SOUTH...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST. NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP A LOW LATE NIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE ALONG THE SRN TREASURE COAST.
FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE CAROLINAS WITH NNE
WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S FAR NORTH AND N CSTL SECTIONS AND LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR SOME SLGT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG THE ST LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTY COAST.
SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SE BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MARINE STRATOCU TO PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL WARM INTO THE
LWR-MID 70S BY SUNDAY.
MON-WED...ANOTHER DIGGING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SE
STATES MONDAY WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FROM THE SE ATLC COAST AND MID ATLC INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM LOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND THE DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE 70S WILL COOL
INTO THE 60S FOR TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS: THRU 04/14Z...W OF KVRB-KOBE N/NE ARND 4KTS...E OF
KVRB-KOBE VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 04/14Z-04/16Z...BCMG E/NE 7-10KTS...
CONTG THRU 05/03Z. BTWN 05/03Z-05/06Z...BCMG S/SE 4-7KTS. AFT
05/06Z...N OF KISM-KTIX BCMG W/NW 8-12KTS...S OF KISM-KTIX S/SE
8-12KTS.
VSBYS/WX: THRU 04/18Z VFR. BTWN 04/18Z-04/21Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS
N OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN 04/21Z-04/24Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS N OF
KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS VCNTY KMLB. BTWN 05/00Z-05/06Z...
MVFR SHRAS BCMG LIKELY N OF I-4 WITH SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS...CHC
SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS S OF I-4. AFT 05/06Z...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS
WITH AREAS IFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR TSRAS ALL SITES.
CIGS: THRU 04/18Z...VFR ALL SITES...PREVAILING AOA FL120 WITH PDS
BTWN FL040-060...MAINLY N OF OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN 04/18Z-04/24Z...
PREVAILING FL040-060...PDS BTWN FL020-030 N OF I-4. BTWN
05/00Z-05/06Z...N OF I-4 PREVAILING FL010-020 WITH PDS BLO FL010...S
OF I-4 BTWN FL030-050. AFT 05/06Z...N OF KMLB-KLAL PREVAILING BLO
FL010 WITH PDS BLO FL006...S OF KMLB-KLAL PREVAILING FL020-030 WITH
OCNL FL010-020.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/NRN GOMEX WILL GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...MAINLY DUE TO AN ERLY SWELL. DOMINANT PDS ARND
8SEC. CHC SHRAS AFT MIDDAY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
TONIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE PAST MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE IN THE PREDAWN HRS AS A SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCD WARM
FRONT PUSH ACRS CENTRAL FL. N OF CAPE CANAVERAL...SFC WINDS BCMG A
MODERATE TO FRESH W/NW BREEZE...S OF THE CAPE A MODERATE TO FRESH
S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE AS MAX
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 18KTS...WHILE THE SRLY COMPONENT S OF
THE CAPE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE LCL ATLC IN THE SHADOW OF GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND. DOMINANT PDS WILL DIMINISH TO 6-7SEC. WIDESPREAD
SHRAS WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
SFC WND G35KTS PSBL IN TSRAS.
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
INTO FRIDAY AS N/NE WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED WITH WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 8-10 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY
SATURDAY AS FLOW VEERS TO THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED EARLY ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
SUNDAY AND DECREASING SEAS WILL MAKE FOR IMPROVING BOATING
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTHERLY EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON BUT RECENT RAIN EARLIER THAT
DAY WILL MITIGATE THE CONCERN FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RHS DROP TO
35-40 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR FRI AFTERNOON WITH WINDS FROM THE NE
10-15 MPH. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 58 64 49 / 40 100 80 10
MCO 72 60 69 49 / 30 100 70 10
MLB 72 63 68 56 / 20 100 80 10
VRB 74 64 72 58 / 10 80 80 10
LEE 69 57 67 47 / 40 100 60 0
SFB 69 58 66 47 / 30 100 70 10
ORL 71 59 68 49 / 30 100 70 10
FPR 74 64 73 58 / 10 80 80 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1123 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 832 PM...
ISSUED AT 434 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO REFINE POPS TO ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
BEFORE ENDING RAPIDLY AS IT HAS DONE UPSTREAM IN NORTHEAST IOWA
THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE...MINOR HOURLY TEMP UPDATES THROUGH
ROUTINE PROCEDURES SENT. NO CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT SNOWS
ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD 12Z.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HAVE A BAND OF WAA SNOW FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF K9V9 WITH A WARM FRONT
RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WEAK TROFS WERE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDWEST. A NARROW TONGUE OF 30 DEGREE DEW
POINTS RAN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SAID TRENDS. THE FORCING
CREATING THE SNOW GENERALLY LINES UP WITH THE ADVECTION IN THE
800-825 MB LAYER. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONVERGENCE/FORCING WILL
CLEAR THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.
THUS WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE BAND. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 WITH SEE EITHER NO SNOW OR JUST A FEW
FLURRIES FROM A PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
BRIEF QUIET AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AREAS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...RAPID SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS DURING THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SURGES
INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK OUT DURING THE MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. THE FORCING/MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK
SHUT DOWN OF THE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SNOW PERSISTING UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
FAIRLY RAPID END TO THE SNOW.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...A DUSTING MAY OCCUR BETWEEN I-80 AND HIGHWAY 30.
AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE ROUGHLY AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE
SHOULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO PLANS ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY WILL BE
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE COMING SNOW. ..08..
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...1037+ MB CANADIAN RIDGE STILL ON
TRACK TO DUMP DOWN THE PLAINS/UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING WITH A SCOURING EFFECT ON CLOUDS/ANY LINGERING
PRECIP. 12Z MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD PROFILES SUCH AS -13C TO
-18C H925 MB TEMPS OVER SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK FOR A TEMP BOTTOM-OUT
AS LONG AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR. WITH
INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY MAINTAINING SFC WINDS
OF 5-10 MPH INTO THU MORNING...AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CIRRUS SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE MO RVR
VALLEY DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...BOTH THESE IDEAL
RADIATE-OUT PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE SO IDEAL. BUT WILL BANK ON THE DEEP
SNOW COVER AND SFC WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE AND KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA
REACHING LOWS OF -8 TO -12F ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...TO -3 TO -9F TO
THE SOUTH. EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF 3-6 MPH WILL STILL GENERATE -15 TO
-25F WIND CHILLS ACRS THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO MID THU MORNING. THUS AN ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EVENTUALLY
ISSUED.
RETURN FLOW STREAMS BACK NORTHWARD BEHIND PASSING RIDGE AXIS FOR
LATE THU AFTERNOON HIGHS. DEPENDING ON WIND SPEED DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET THU EVENING...THU NIGHT LOWS MAY OCCUR FROM SUNSET THROUGH
9-10 PM CST OR SO...BEFORE DOING A STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND INTO
FRI MORNING. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
DAMPENING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE CLIPPER STORM TRACK AND
LLVL BAROCLINICITY GETTING SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
BULK OF THE SOLUTION SUGGEST FRI TO BE A WARM SECTOR DAY SOUTH OF
A PASSING WAVE ACRS MN INTO WI...THE WARM DRAW UP ACRS THE CWA
WOULD PRODUCE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SNOW
COVER...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE 30S
ALTHOUGH A 40 STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. SFC WAVE AND FRONT SLIP
THRU THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BUT POST-LOW COOL DOWN NOTHING EXTREME.
WITH SOME SNOW MELT JUICING THE SFC LAYER ON FRI...ANY SFC WINDS
GOING LIGHT OR LIGHT CONVERGENT MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG IF ANY
PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES OCCUR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST FLATTENED FLOW TO
USHER THE NEXT WAVE/WHICH IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
RIDGE DAMPENING/ ACRS THE NORTH HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRE-SYSTEM WARMING MAY MAKE FOR MORE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I80 FOR SAT...AND CONTINUED SNOW MELTING.
WITH CONVERGENT RETURN FLOW ALONG ANOTHER WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM...FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO SAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS MAY LIMIT TEMPS SAT TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I80...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN MIND IF THIS OCCURS. BULK OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEF ZONE SNOWS WOULD STAY ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN INTO
WI/LOWER MI WITH THE CURRENT CLIPPER TRACK FRO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BUT SOME PRECIP WOULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...SAT
EVENING A WINTRY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HWY 30...WITH WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWERS...OR RAIN-SNOW SHOWER MIX THEN POSSIBLE DOWN TO
HWY 30 OR SOUTH TO I80 ON SUNDAY IN THE SYSTEM/S WAKE. WILL KEEP
GENERAL BLEND OF POPS AND MAINLY SNOW WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
SAT NIGHT IN VCNTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENSEMBLES AND LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST
A BRIEF CHILL DOWN MONDAY BEHIND WHAT EVER SYSTEM CAN MOVE ACRS THE
REGION SAT-SUN...WITH PACIFIC JET ENERGY THEN BILLOWING IT/S WAY
EASTWARD FOR A MEAN FLOW FLATTEN-OUT AGAIN INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD ALSO BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPS AGAIN AS WELL AS HIGHER DPTS FROM
THE SOUTH EATING AT THE SNOW COVER. WAA TYPE PRECIP WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE CWA TUE INTO NEXT WED...BUT OF COURSE TIMING
AND AREAL EXTENT TOO DISTANT TO PLACE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A CHAOTIC NIGHT OF MVFR CIGS MIXED WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND GROUND
FOG WILL AFFECT IOWA AND ILLINOIS THROUGH AROUND 09Z/04...WHEN A
NEW SNOW STORM IN SOUTHERN IOWA ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ILLINOIS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THIS SNOW WILL IMPACT BRL...AND MLI...BUT SHOULD
MISS CID AND DBQ. SO...WILL INTRODUCE MVFR SNOWS AFTER
15Z/04...FOR MLI AND BRL...AND TEMPO IN IFR SNOW IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WHEN IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE INTENSE.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND
12 TO 15 KTS. ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED IN CENTRAL CANADA. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS.
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY AHEAD OF AVAILABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT MOST MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW BACKING OFF
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH. BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH
MOST OF THE JET LIFT IS NOW DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CHANCES AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR RECEIVING GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
DIMINISHING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
DIP FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED AS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO STILL END
UP TO 2 INCHES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL
END SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES WITH A STRONGER 40KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83...WHICH COULD BRING SOME MARGINAL
BLOWING SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT. RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
THE SAME...WITH WESTERN RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
ON MONDAY AND HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TOWARD 12Z. A STRATUS CIG IS EXPECTED
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. DECREASING CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1108 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE JET
FROM OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LED TO PERSISTENT LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MID-AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, WHICH IS
WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS
FOUND NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TONIGHT ONCE AN
ARCTIC PERTURBATION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
(TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY). SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT BEING THE RESULT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION, LOW CLOUD COVER, AND STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. WE BOOSTED THE WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 23 TO 26 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR ESPECIALLY THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING
STRONGEST THE FEW HOURS AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY UPPER TEENS,
PERHAPS, BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS FAR
AS THE SNOW FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED ON THAT
FRONT. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT UP IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST (CENTRAL KANSAS) CLOSER TO WHERE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 700MB FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP AROUND HAYS. THE WRF-NMM HAS THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH, BUT SINCE IT IS THE OUTLIER, MUCH LESS
WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THIS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF A BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BE EXITING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LESSER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SOONER IN THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER, IS SHOWING
THE WAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSING OFF AS IT DOES.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES GENERALLY
AFTER 10Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO LOWER VSBYS IN THE
VICINITY OF KHYS TO MVFR. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
25 TO 35KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 10Z AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO KANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 26 31 14 49 / 0 20 10 0
GCK 28 31 15 54 / 0 20 10 0
EHA 34 38 19 57 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 29 34 17 53 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 24 27 12 46 / 0 60 10 0
P28 30 32 12 39 / 0 30 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1020 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING EASTWARD ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE JET
FROM OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LED TO PERSISTENT LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MID-AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, WHICH IS
WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS
FOUND NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TONIGHT ONCE AN
ARCTIC PERTURBATION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
(TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY). SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT BEING THE RESULT AS THE HIGH EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION, LOW CLOUD COVER, AND STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. WE BOOSTED THE WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 23 TO 26 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR ESPECIALLY THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING
STRONGEST THE FEW HOURS AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY UPPER TEENS,
PERHAPS, BY LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS FAR
AS THE SNOW FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED ON THAT
FRONT. WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT UP IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST (CENTRAL KANSAS) CLOSER TO WHERE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 700MB FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP AROUND HAYS. THE WRF-NMM HAS THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH, BUT SINCE IT IS THE OUTLIER, MUCH LESS
WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THIS SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF A BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BE EXITING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
REDEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT
MAINLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LESSER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SOONER IN THE NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER, IS SHOWING
THE WAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLOSING OFF AS IT DOES.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY AS THIS
FRONT PASSES A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WIND AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 40 WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE NAM, RAP, ARW, AND NMM THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE HAYS AREA BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AND THEN DODGE CITY AND
GARDEN CITY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDING INDICATING THAT THE
SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL WILL QUICKLY SATURATED SO VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CEILINGS. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW 3-5SM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SATURATES THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW,
MAINLY IN THE HAYS AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 26 31 14 49 / 0 20 10 0
GCK 28 31 15 54 / 0 20 10 0
EHA 34 38 19 57 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 29 34 17 53 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 24 27 12 46 / 0 60 10 0
P28 30 32 12 39 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAFS...LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NEWD FROM THE TX/LA
GULF COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN
TO AFFECT KLFK WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHWRS AS FAR NORTH AS KSHV OR KMLU BY 04/18Z
BUT MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RAIN SOUTH OF I-20
AND ENDS PRECIP AT KLFK BEFORE NOON. MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
VFR BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE SURGES NWD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE LOW. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS PRETTY SOLID IN COVERAGE MUCH
EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX INTO SW LA HAS QUICKLY
DISSIPATED AS IT HAS MOVED EAST AND ENCOUNTERED DRIER AIR. NEXT
BATCH OF RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO REFORM WELL SOUTH AND WEST ALONG
THE SE TX COAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HANDLED THE
DISSIPATION OF THE FIRST BATCH QUITE WELL AND IS TRYING TO BRING
THE NEW PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST INTO OUT SOUTHERN ZONES WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.
LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL BUT TIGHT
UPPER TROUGH SPINNING ACROSS OLD MEXICO...MOVING INTO EXTREME S TX
ATTM. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY SUPPOSED TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO SC TX
BY 12Z WED...FILLING AS IT MOVES INTO SE TX BY 18Z WED. THE PRECIP
FCST MAY BE A LITTLE BIT HIGH ON POPS OVERNIGHT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITNESSED ON KSHV`S 00Z SOUNDING BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS OBVIOUSLY MORE MOIST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SO
WILL LET THE POP FCST RIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
A QUICK CHECK OF 03Z TEMPS SHOW THAT FCST TEMPS ARE WITHIN
TOLERANCE COMPARED TO ACTUAL AMBIENT 03Z TEMPS. ALL OTHER FCST
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO
THE FCST OVERNIGHT.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 39 56 38 45 29 / 10 30 20 10 0
MLU 36 54 36 44 27 / 10 30 30 10 0
DEQ 33 53 31 43 27 / 0 20 20 10 0
TXK 38 53 32 44 28 / 0 20 20 10 0
ELD 33 53 33 43 25 / 0 20 30 10 0
TYR 41 57 38 47 34 / 20 20 20 10 0
GGG 39 56 40 47 31 / 20 20 20 10 0
LFK 42 59 44 51 34 / 40 30 20 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NOTED UPSTREAM. THE
FIRST IS TRACKING INTO CNTRL/SRN MN...AND THE SECOND IS OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA. THE FORMER IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF -SN THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI. THE LATTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES
LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. AS FOR ONGOING LES...LES HAS BEEN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DISORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME
DOMINANT BANDS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ONE IN PARTICULAR WAS AFFECTING THE HOUGHTON VCNTY EARLIER TODAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...IMPACTS HAVE
PROBABLY BEEN LIMITED. WITH DAYTIME WEAKENING OF LAND BREEZES AND
LOCALIZED COVERGENCE...THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED.
FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI INTO LWR MI TONIGHT. BASED
ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE NRN EDGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SNOW MAY JUST CLIP SCNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL REACH
NRN MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. IN RESPONSE...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION
LIFTING FROM 4KFT THIS EVENING TO UPWARDS OF 10KFT OR MORE BY 12Z
WED. IN NW UPPER MI...HIGH RES MODELS TEND TO FOCUS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ROUGHLY BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. THIS IS A TYPICAL
LOCATION FOR CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS UNDER SYNOPTIC WNW FLOW DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO WIND AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
WHEN WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THEY WILL BE TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RISING INVERSION/STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE...LES ADVY IS
WARRANTED FOR ONTONAGON/NRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE DEPARTS IN THE MORNING...A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING IN THE AFTN. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A
SLOW FALL OF THE INVERSION TO AROUND 6KFT BY LATE AFTN. DGZ WILL
STILL OCCUPY AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE SFC WED AFTN
UNDER CAA REGIME WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO -25 TO -27C BY EVENING.
SO...HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS UPWARDS OF 25 OR MORE TO 1 TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO UNDER 20 TO 1 WED. IN THE END...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8 INCHES BY WED EVENING WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS
BTWN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON. GIVEN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS...CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE MUCH GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IF THE
CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONGLY FOCUSED. INCREASING NW WINDS
WED...GUSTING TO 20-30MPH... WILL LEAD TO BLSN AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VIS. MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVY FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY DUE TO BLSN
ON WED.
TO THE E...FCST IS MUCH MORE CHALLENGING. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY SOLID LOOKING ICE COVER FROM WHITEFISH BAY N TO
MICHIPICOTEN BAY SHOULD LEAD TO A HEALTHY LAND BREEZE PUSHING WELL
OUT INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. END RESULT WILL BE A STRONG CONVERGENCE
ZONE DEVELOPING BTWN THIS WESTWARD PUSHING LAND BREEZE AND THE WNW
WINDS OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. VERY HVY SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
HOW THE SNOW BAND WILL EVOLVE...WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED AND WHETHER
MUCH OF IT WILL IMPACT UPPER MI. STEADY WNW WINDS OF 25-30KT UP AT
850MB DO SUGGEST SOME OF THIS HVY SNOW SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF ERN
ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES ATTM. WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR TONIGHT. ON
WED...STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW WILL OVERCOME THE LAND BREEZE AND PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOW ONSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF WNW MULTI-
BAND LES. WILL LIKELY NEED AN ADVY FOR ALGER (MAINLY E HALF OF THE
COUNTY) AND LUCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT).
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS)
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE
A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS
AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3
INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS
WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING
WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO.
MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE
WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING
ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT
ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT
COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING
INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO
MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE
FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS).
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR
THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
AT KCMX...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED EVENING. INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL
ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO BLSN.
AT KIWD/KSAW...AS WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES. EXPECT -
SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW. WED EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD AND KSAW WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AND THEN BACK SW AND
STRENGTHEN ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. THE SW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THU
AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15-25KT
OUT OF THE N FOR SAT. WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE
INTO SUN AS THEY VEER EASTERLY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today.
Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to
try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast
across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south
through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the
warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the
temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and
upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between
14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska
continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast
area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty
impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb
particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois
through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of
snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day,
but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast
pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the
snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good
shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser
amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an
SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further
south when the snow moves through.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Snow should be ending across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois early this evening as the shortwave shifts east of the
area. A blast of Arctic air will follow in the wake of the snow
today. Temperatures near or below zero are expected Thursday
morning near the center of the high in northern Missouri...with only
single digits to low teens elsewhere. With such a cold start to
Thursday, we likely won`t crack freezing during the afternoon over
most of the area. However, the high moves southeast through the day
and return flow on the western side of the high starts ramping up by
00Z Friday. Temperature forecast will likely be tricky for Thursday
night into Friday morning due to the return flow. Have nearly
steady hourly temps overnight at this time, but they may even rise
slowly. Friday looks as much as 20 degrees warmer than Thursday.
Mild and dry weather looks to continue for the weekend into next
week. There`s a slight chance of some precipitation Sunday into
Monday as a shortwave moves southeast across the area and amplifies
over the Eastern Seaboard. The cold high pressure which gets
dragged south in the wake of the wave still looks to brush by us to
the north. While it looks like temperatures will fall back below
seasonal normals, the teeth of the cold air will likely stay north
of our area.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2015
A strong cold front will move southeastward into northern MO and
central IL overnight and progress through central and eastern MO
the first part of Wednesday morning. The latest data suggests that
stratus will spread into the region in the wake of the cold front
lowering flight conditions to MVFR, however the arrival of stratus
will be slower than previously forecast and probably 3-4 hours
after fropa. During the later half of the morning into the afternoon
a band of snow will spread into the region from the northwest.
Flight conditions will deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow
band with accumulating snowfall likely at all the terminals.
Longevity of the snowfall will be greatest at KUIN where 2-3
inches is possible between 16-22z, while around 2 inches of snow
is expected at KCOU from 18-23z, and around 1 inch at the St.
Louis terminals between 21-01z.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday
morning with predominately high clouds. A strong cold front will
move through the terminal between 14-15z with stratus lagging the
fropa by 3-4 hours. The stratus will result in MVFR flight
conditions around 18z. A band of snow will then spread into KSTL
around 21z and last until around 01z. Flight conditions will
deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow band with accumulating
snowfall of around 1 inch expected.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 34 10 27 22 / 90 30 0 0
Quincy 22 -1 20 16 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 30 7 28 22 / 90 10 0 0
Jefferson City 33 8 30 23 / 90 10 0 0
Salem 38 12 26 21 / 80 70 0 0
Farmington 43 11 30 21 / 90 80 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
322 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today.
Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to
try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast
across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south
through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the
warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the
temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and
upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between
14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska
continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast
area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty
impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb
particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois
through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of
snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day,
but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast
pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the
snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good
shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser
amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an
SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further
south when the snow moves through.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2015
Northwest flow aloft will prevail thru early next week with
occasional shortwave disturbances rolling thru.
The first, and for our purposes the most significant, is set for
Wednesday. Still good agreement amongst the models on timing and
track of an area of strong frontogenesis overlapping very well an
area of moderately strong broadscale lift directly associated with
the shortwave disturbance. The moisture thru the column is also
above average for early February and this should promote measurable
snow for most, if not all, of our forecast area. With additional
confidence, it looks like the northern W-E band of snow will be the
most persistent as it moves off to the east, giving longer residence
times and boosted snow amounts for our northeast MO and west-central
IL counties into the 2-4" range as a result. The southern band will
also be oriented principally W-E but will be much more migratory as
it pushes southeastward and weakens some, leading to much lower
residence times over any one location. The result for areas outside
of northeast MO and west-central IL will be lesser snow amounts,
ranging from 1-2" in central MO where the frontogenesis has
consistently been advertised to be stronger than areas further
east...and 1" or less for STL metro and areas to the south and east.
The forcing quickly exits early Wednesday evening and held on to
likely PoPs for a brief time southeast of STL metro, with clearing
to follow a few hours later.
A Winter Wx Advisory will be issued with this package for averages
of 3" or more of snow for northeast MO and west-central IL. This
Advisory may be expanded for areas further south due to anticipated
impacts of brief bursts of moderate to heavy snow during the
afternoon rush, but will let the overnight shift make the final call
on that after taking another look at a later run of the models and
possibly further refining the timing.
Another shortwave disturbance looks like it will just miss us to the
north on Friday, with what appears to be a more direct hit on late
Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture looked pretty limited until
very late, and so kept PoPs mostly off in IL and low with plenty of
time to watch. Another disturbance may be set for Monday next week,
but a lot of model discrepancies here and confidence remains low.
Otherwise, dropping temps on Wednesday with the Arctic boundary will
keep pcpn-types all snow, except in southeast MO and southern IL,
where they may begin as rain before changing to snow. A very cold
night Wednesday night, with sub-zero temps and around 10 below wind
chills expected for northern MO and central IL where the snowpack
will be deepest. Still well below normal elsewhere and this will
carry into Thursday daytime.
A strong rebound then expected Thursday night with rising temps and
a running start into Friday, as temps surge well into the 40s, and
then well into the 50s for most locations Saturday. More seasonable
temps for next week then on tap.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2015
A strong cold front will move southeastward into northern MO and
central IL overnight and progress through central and eastern MO
the first part of Wednesday morning. The latest data suggests that
stratus will spread into the region in the wake of the cold front
lowering flight conditions to MVFR, however the arrival of stratus
will be slower than previously forecast and probably 3-4 hours
after fropa. During the later half of the morning into the afternoon
a band of snow will spread into the region from the northwest.
Flight conditions will deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow
band with accumulating snowfall likely at all the terminals.
Longevity of the snowfall will be greatest at KUIN where 2-3
inches is possible between 16-22z, while around 2 inches of snow
is expected at KCOU from 18-23z, and around 1 inch at the St.
Louis terminals between 21-01z.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday
morning with predominately high clouds. A strong cold front will
move through the terminal between 14-15z with stratus lagging the
fropa by 3-4 hours. The stratus will result in MVFR flight
conditions around 18z. A band of snow will then spread into KSTL
around 21z and last until around 01z. Flight conditions will
deteoriate to IFR in the heart of the snow band with accumulating
snowfall of around 1 inch expected.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 34 12 27 22 / 90 30 0 0
Quincy 22 2 20 16 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 30 8 28 22 / 90 10 0 0
Jefferson City 33 9 30 23 / 90 10 0 0
Salem 38 14 26 21 / 80 70 0 0
Farmington 43 13 30 21 / 90 80 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN WY INTO
ERN CO...WHILE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER OVER CNTRL MT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEBR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING SOUTH IS KEEPING SNOW SOUTH OF FAR NRN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
TODAY...
WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO FAR...THIS SYSTEM OBSERVED FROM RADAR...SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST FORECAST OF SNOWFALL TOTALS
GAVE ABOUT AN INCH INCREASE FOR CUSTER COUNTY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INCREASE OF A HALF INCH FOR HOOKER...AND THOMAS COUNTY.
CONVECTIVE FEATURES SHOWN ON KLNX RADAR AND ADJACENT RADARS TO
OUR WEST ARE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITH
NEGATIVE EPV. STRONG OMEGA OF 15 MICROBARS LIFT IN THE 12C TO
-18C DENDRITIC LAYER SHOWN BY 13KM RAP MODEL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z...THEN DECREASING
THROUGH 15Z AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. HAVE UPGRADED HOOKER...THOMAS...BLAINE
AND CUSTER COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 5 TO 7 INCH
TOTALS ARE LIKELY. TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CNTRL GARDEN
COUNTY EAST ACROSS ARTHUR...MCPHERSON...LOGAN COUNTY. REST OF
GOING COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. NORTH WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS
WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. ALL WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CNTRL SANDHILLS AND EAST TO NEAR 25 AT
IML.
TONIGHT...
THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AS WINDS ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA BECOME
SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 15 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE LOWS TONIGHT AND IF WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME EVEN
LOWER. FORECAST LOWS ARE FOR NEAR 1 BELOW IN WHEELER COUNTY WHILE
WESTERN COUNTIES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. SOME CLOUDINESS IS
FORECAST IN THE WEST AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
IN THE MID AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A COLD AND CHILLY DAY TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
MIXING DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS AND
GENERALLY AT COLDEST OR BELOW GUIDANCE...IN THE 40S TO UPPER 30S.
IN EXTREME SW NEBRASKA WHERE ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY
REMAIN...HIGHS AROUND 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
/DOWNSLOPING/ WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL AID IN MIXING THE BL ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALSO WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS AT AND
ABOVE 10C FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
60S AND 50S...HOWEVER TRENDED DOWN OVER THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW
FIELD IN FAVOR OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY HAS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW
MELT WILL ALSO HAVE OCCURRED AND THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE DIMINISH
AND HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT...ALTHOUGH SOME. HIGHS STILL IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL...WHERE 850 MB TEMPS THE COOLEST...10C
TO 13C. WESTERN ZONES RANGE FROM AROUND 12C IN THE N TO AROUND
17C IN THE S. ACROSS SW NEB WITH THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WHAT
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW REMAINING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX
WELL. GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER
70S...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS DUE TO A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA.
CONTINUED DRY FOR NEXT WEEK AS ROCKIES RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY IN
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS TO CAUSE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST IS DRY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG. WHILE NOT SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS...THE WARMER TEMPS WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND AN INCREASE IN
NEAR SFC MOISTURE. AS TEMPS COOL AT NIGHT...FOG CAN NOT BE RULED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE AREA OF SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY ACROSS NCNTL/WRN NEB WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW FORMING
ACROSS ERN WY. LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE SRN AND ERN SECTION
OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR IMPROVING
TO VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-008-027>029-056-058-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ022>026-035>038-057-059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
155 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS PINNING DOWN SN ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
OVER THE CWA. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUPPORT GOING FCST WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE SRN CWA IS ON TRACK...AND IS SUPPORTED BY HIRES
ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF
SNOW OVER WRN NEB BEGINNING TO EXPAND EWD...AND SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO THE WRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AS MENTIONED...EXPECT THE SRN
CWA TO RECEIVE BRUNT OF ACCUMULATION THRU THIS MORNING WHERE AXIS
OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/ IS PROGGED TO SET UP. AS FOR
AMOUNTS...BELIEVE AMOUNTS PROVIDED BY THE HIRES PROGS/COBB DATA
ARE QUITE REASONABLE DEPICTING ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOONE COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY...AND 1-2
INCHES NORTH. SNOWFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY TO COME TO A CLOSE BY EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A GENEROUS WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY...AND LOW/MID 40S FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO
CONTEND WITH THRU THE EXTENDED PDS AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS
FROM ZONAL TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ECMMOS MAX TEMPS LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH
LOW/MID 40S ON SAT/SUN AS OPPOSED THE MEX PUSHING HIGHS GENERALLY
INTO THE MID 50S.
MEX AND DETERMINISTIC ECM IN AGREEMENT A BIT COLDER THEN ON MONDAY
WITH MID/UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z
BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KLNK AND KOMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THE SNOW SHOULD END
AT ALL SITES BY 18Z WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO
30KT WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 22Z BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ030-042>045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A TANDEM OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THE FIRST OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE SECOND OVER WASHINGTON STATE. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER SNOWCOVERED
AREA...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
FED THE LATEST FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP. THIS SHIFTED THE CENTROID OF HIGHEST
QPF NORTH ABOUT 10 MILES WHICH LINED UP QUITE WELL WITH THE
NEIGHBOR OFFICES EAST AND WEST. ALSO BROUGHT IN SOME RAP MODEL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WHICH PRESERVE THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RAIN SNOW LINE LATER
TONIGHT NEAR OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTH AND PERHAPS A SHIFT EAST A BIT. THE CENTROID IS FROM
CRESCENT LAKE IN GARDEN COUNTY TO BROKEN BOW.
THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH KEEPS THE SNOW
GOING IN THE SOUTH AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HRRR...RAP AND NAM INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO BOOSTED THE GUSTS.
A CHECK ON THE CAMS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE IT IS SNOWING
SHOWS WET ROADS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE ROADS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED OVERNIGHT AND FREEZE OVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THE JET DYNAMICS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE RESULTING IN STRONG LIFT AND A
CLASSIC AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...WITH PWATS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE TYPES OF SNOW BANDS ARE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BAND WILL LIKELY CENTER
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OSHKOSH...TO ARTHUR...TO STAPLETON. NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS...AND GENERALLY EXPECTING ABOUT A 13 TO 1 RATIO OR SO DURING
THE HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW. WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY SNOW
BAND...EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. LIFT IS SUCH THAT HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SOME TOTALS
AROUND 9 OR 10 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS
MENTIONED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AS YOU MOVE NORTH
OR SOUTH FROM THE SNOW BAND...AND ONLY EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NAM MODEL INDICATES 500 METER WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 22 KTS OR
SO...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ADDING TO THE SITUATION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR
IN BOTH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING A BATCH
OF VERY COLD AIR WITH IT...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVER THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO SERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...TRACKING
INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE EVENING
HRS WITH INCREASING SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. ATTM...GIVEN THE LATE
ONSET OF WINDS WEDS NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...LOWS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 ABOVE IN THE EAST
TO THE MID TEENS IN THE FAR WEST. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO
8C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE WARM THURSDAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...TO THE MID 50S IN
THE WEST. ATTM...THE ONLY PLACE I COULD SEE 50S OCCURRING WOULD BE IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED WITH TONIGHT/S
SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...DECENT SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/S STORM...COUPLED
WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER FROM LAST SUNDAYS STORM...WILL LIMIT HIGHS
THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGHS IN
THE 30S IN THE EAST...TO 40S ELSEWHERE. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH H85 TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND 8 TO 12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. INITIALLY WAS CONCERNED WITH SOME FOG
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ARE NOT TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHIFTING TO
FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 14C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE SNOWCOVER WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMEST ON SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 16C.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SIMILAR TEMPS
WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EAST
TO 50S WEST. ATTM...BASED ON THE LATEST EC AND MEX GUIDANCE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AS POPS ARE WELL BELOW CLIMO DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
THE AREA OF SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY ACROSS NCNTL/WRN NEB WILL DRIFT
SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW FORMING ACROSS ERN
WY. LIFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE SRN AND ERN SECTION OF THE FCST
AREA AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR IMPROVING TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-008-024>029-038-056-058-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ022-023-035>037-057-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1008 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A TANDEM OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THE FIRST OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE SECOND OVER WASHINGTON STATE. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER SNOWCOVERED
AREA...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
FED THE LATEST FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP. THIS SHIFTED THE CENTROID OF HIGHEST
QPF NORTH ABOUT 10 MILES WHICH LINED UP QUITE WELL WITH THE
NEIGHBOR OFFICES EAST AND WEST. ALSO BROUGHT IN SOME RAP MODEL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WHICH PRESERVE THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RAIN SNOW LINE LATER
TONIGHT NEAR OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTH AND PERHAPS A SHIFT EAST A BIT. THE CENTROID IS FROM
CRESCENT LAKE IN GARDEN COUNTY TO BROKEN BOW.
THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH KEEPS THE SNOW
GOING IN THE SOUTH AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HRRR...RAP AND NAM INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO BOOSTED THE GUSTS.
A CHECK ON THE CAMS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE IT IS SNOWING
SHOWS WET ROADS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. THE ROADS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED OVERNIGHT AND FREEZE OVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THE JET DYNAMICS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE RESULTING IN STRONG LIFT AND A
CLASSIC AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...WITH PWATS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE TYPES OF SNOW BANDS ARE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BAND WILL LIKELY CENTER
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OSHKOSH...TO ARTHUR...TO STAPLETON. NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS...AND GENERALLY EXPECTING ABOUT A 13 TO 1 RATIO OR SO DURING
THE HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW. WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY SNOW
BAND...EXPECTING A TOTAL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. LIFT IS SUCH THAT HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SOME TOTALS
AROUND 9 OR 10 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS
MENTIONED...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AS YOU MOVE NORTH
OR SOUTH FROM THE SNOW BAND...AND ONLY EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NAM MODEL INDICATES 500 METER WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 22 KTS OR
SO...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ADDING TO THE SITUATION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR
IN BOTH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING A BATCH
OF VERY COLD AIR WITH IT...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OVER THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE INTO SERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...TRACKING
INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE EVENING
HRS WITH INCREASING SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. ATTM...GIVEN THE LATE
ONSET OF WINDS WEDS NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...LOWS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS...WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 ABOVE IN THE EAST
TO THE MID TEENS IN THE FAR WEST. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO
8C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE WARM THURSDAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...TO THE MID 50S IN
THE WEST. ATTM...THE ONLY PLACE I COULD SEE 50S OCCURRING WOULD BE IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED WITH TONIGHT/S
SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...DECENT SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/S STORM...COUPLED
WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER FROM LAST SUNDAYS STORM...WILL LIMIT HIGHS
THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGHS IN
THE 30S IN THE EAST...TO 40S ELSEWHERE. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH H85 TEMPS RISING TO
AROUND 8 TO 12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. INITIALLY WAS CONCERNED WITH SOME FOG
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ARE NOT TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHIFTING TO
FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 14C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE SNOWCOVER WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMEST ON SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 16C.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SIMILAR TEMPS
WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EAST
TO 50S WEST. ATTM...BASED ON THE LATEST EC AND MEX GUIDANCE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AS POPS ARE WELL BELOW CLIMO DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
A BROAD AREA OF LIFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING 04Z- 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN KAIA
AND KBBW WITH SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND LOW CIGS/VSBY. LIFR IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN KTIF AND KLBF DURING THIS TIME. MVFR IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM
15Z ONWARD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-008-024>029-038-056-058-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ022-023-035>037-057-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
352 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 5 HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY GOES ON. AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S IN MOST PLACES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A
DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT THE REAL WARMUP WILL KICK INTO
HIGH GEAR FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...AND QUITE POSSIBLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 70S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE MODEL PROGGED 900 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AN EXCELLENT INDICATOR OF HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS THE PAST FEW WEEKS...INDICATE THAT THIS
FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS FROM FRIDAY ON.
SOME UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP IN BY MONDAY AS THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS INTRUSION
ITS PAST SEVVERAL RUNS...AND THAT TREND CONTINUES ON ITS MOST
RECENT RUN. IN ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW LITTLE OR NO COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW OF THE
MEMBERS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AT THAT
TIME RATHER THAN DECREASE. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH THE COOLDOWN
ADVERTISED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
STAYED NEAR THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A
NON DIURNAL TREND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT
AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT THEN WENT WITH A
MIX OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 15 40 28 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 58 24 43 29 / 20 30 0 0
MLC 55 20 41 29 / 20 20 0 0
BVO 45 12 39 22 / 30 20 0 0
FYV 52 16 40 24 / 20 30 0 0
BYV 52 15 39 25 / 30 30 0 0
MKO 53 18 41 26 / 20 20 0 0
MIO 47 12 38 25 / 30 20 0 0
F10 52 17 40 27 / 20 20 0 0
HHW 58 27 43 29 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER
GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL
UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND
WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA
CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS
WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS.
MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN
12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF
THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE
FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE
SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD
FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE
FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR
SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE
NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD.
A MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-
MON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT
QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/ LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS
THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE
WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT AOO.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH MAINLY MVFR IS
PROBABLE AT UNV...MDT AND LNS. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
212 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LEAD S/W ENERGY MOVG THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS WELL IN ADVANCE OF
BEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...COMBINED WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND
WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY WITH WILL SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ ABOUT ONE ROW
OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 PER RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR. HRRR ALSO CONFIRMS HIGHEST AMTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES
OVER THE NW MTNS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST SNOW CAN
REACH THE GROUND AND CANT RULE OUT A COATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LWR SUSQ VLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY WED...AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHARPENS
UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT LAYING W-E ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ALSO BUCKLES THE FRONT AS BRINGS THE COLD
AIR DOWN - AND INTO THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE FEED LATER WED AND EARLY WED NIGHT AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS THAN WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE MORE SNOW
FALL FROM THE SKY...BUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SNOW ADVY FOR THE NRN TIER LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT - BUT A GENERAL 2-3 OVER THE 18 HRS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT
NOW. THE ACCUMS WILL...AGAIN...NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MD
BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN ACCUM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON
WED...IT MAY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA
AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE M-U30S. THEREFORE...ACCUMS IN THE SE HALF
WILL HAVE TO BE AFTER DARK WED EVENING. THE TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD
FLIP SIGN AROUND 21Z WED...AND 8H TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST -20C IN THE
NORTHWESTERN MTNS BY 12Z THURS. BRRR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST ON THU WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ON NW FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THU BEFORE SLIDING BACKWARDS
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A NOTICABLE WIND BRINGING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY DURING
THAT TIME.
THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE
AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-MON...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND
EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/
LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE
WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT AOO.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH MAINLY MVFR IS
PROBABLE AT UNV...MDT AND LNS. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED BY A COMPLEX ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LEAD S/W ENERGY MOVG THROUGH THE LOWER GRT LKS WELL IN ADVANCE OF
BEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...COMBINED WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND
WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY WITH WILL SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ ABOUT ONE ROW
OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 PER RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR. HRRR ALSO CONFIRMS HIGHEST AMTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES
OVER THE NW MTNS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST SNOW CAN
REACH THE GROUND AND CANT RULE OUT A COATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LWR SUSQ VLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY WED...AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHARPENS
UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT LAYING W-E ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE TROUGH AND ALSO BUCKLES THE FRONT AS BRINGS THE COLD
AIR DOWN - AND INTO THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE FEED LATER WED AND EARLY WED NIGHT AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS THAN WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE MORE SNOW
FALL FROM THE SKY...BUT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SNOW ADVY FOR THE NRN TIER LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT - BUT A GENERAL 2-3 OVER THE 18 HRS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD RIGHT
NOW. THE ACCUMS WILL...AGAIN...NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MD
BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN ACCUM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON
WED...IT MAY BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA
AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE M-U30S. THEREFORE...ACCUMS IN THE SE HALF
WILL HAVE TO BE AFTER DARK WED EVENING. THE TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD
FLIP SIGN AROUND 21Z WED...AND 8H TEMPS DROP TO ALMOST -20C IN THE
NORTHWESTERN MTNS BY 12Z THURS. BRRR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST ON THU WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ON NW FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON THU BEFORE SLIDING BACKWARDS
MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA...WITH A NOTICABLE WIND BRINGING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CERTAINTY DURING
THAT TIME.
THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD. A MORE
AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-MON...ACCOMPANIED
BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND
EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/
LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ALL THE WAY BACK INTO OHIO...HOWEVER LIGHT
SNOW IS STREAKING EAST CAUSING RAPID DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITIES AS
FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO MY
NORTHWESTERN AREAS BETWEEN ABOUT 05-08Z...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR OVER
OUR HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS...LASTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1005 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
PERSISTENT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP FROM AROUND EDGEMONT TO PINE RIDGE
AND EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OR SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THIS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT THEN END BY DAYBREAK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS FAR SWRN SD...PRIMARILY
FALL RIVER AND SHANNON COUNTIES ALONG WITH FAR SRN CUSTER COUNTY. RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW W TO E ORIENTED SNOW BANDS ACROSS THIS
AREA AND LATE RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL
VERY NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT...BUT
HAVE RAISED ACCUMS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
RADAR RETURNS SHOW SNOW IS A BIT MORE WDSPRD TO THE NORTH/EAST
OF THE BLKHLS SO HAVE EXPANDED/RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING THAT
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND
WESTERN WY. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. KUDX
RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. TEMPS
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE 40S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS FROM THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
BRINGING AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO MOST AREAS. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST WY AND AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN SD...AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO NEB. 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH LATEST 18Z RUNS MOSTLY SHOW A SLIGHT TREND FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE BACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR
POURING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS BY MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...COLDEST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z...BUT
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY. WILL GO
WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. LOCAL 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL CO. ELSEWHERE...ZERO TO ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEENS FROM MUCH OF NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...MOST
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST CWA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
SNOW COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND ALONG
THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA. SMALL CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE REBUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
WDSPRD SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM NERN WY THROUGH SWRN
SD...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK.
EXPECT WDSPRD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ041-042.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
925 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
PERSISTENT SNOW BAND HAS SET UP FROM AROUND EDGEMONT TO PINE RIDGE
AND EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OR SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THIS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT THEN END BY DAYBREAK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS FAR SWRN SD...PRIMARILY
FALL RIVER AND SHANNON COUNTIES ALONG WITH FAR SRN CUSTER COUNTY. RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW W TO E ORIENTED SNOW BANDS ACROSS THIS
AREA AND LATE RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL
VERY NEAR FREEZING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS A BIT...BUT
HAVE RAISED ACCUMS TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
RADAR RETURNS SHOW SNOW IS A BIT MORE WDSPRD TO THE NORTH/EAST
OF THE BLKHLS SO HAVE EXPANDED/RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING THAT
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN SD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND
WESTERN WY. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. KUDX
RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT
NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. TEMPS
RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE 40S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SOME AREAS FROM THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
BRINGING AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO MOST AREAS. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST WY AND AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN SD...AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO NEB. 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...THOUGH LATEST 18Z RUNS MOSTLY SHOW A SLIGHT TREND FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE BACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR
POURING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS BY MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...COLDEST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. BULK OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z...BUT
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY. WILL GO
WITH FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. LOCAL 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL CO. ELSEWHERE...ZERO TO ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEENS FROM MUCH OF NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...MOST
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST CWA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S/LOWER 50S. WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
SNOW COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND ALONG
THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA. SMALL CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN EACH DAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE REBUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 535 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
WDSPRD SNOW IS SPREADING FROM FAR NERN WY THROUGH MUCH OF WRN SD.
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS FAR SWRN SD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ041-042.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND THE
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
WHILE PORTIONS OF ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES COULD STILL SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF ACCUMULATION...IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH OR LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
EITHER BE PRECIPITATION FREE OR JUST HAVE FLURRIES WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS:
1. DIMINISHING SNOW THIS EVENING
2. SNOW...OR NOT...SOUTH OF I-90 ON WEDNESDAY
3. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY NEED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON?
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...DEEP
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CANADA WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...AND A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES HAS
RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING OUR AREA. THIS BAND EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN
THIS BAND. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS COLD WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS...DUE TO THE COLD START...FRESH SNOWPACK...
CLOUDS...FALLING SNOW AND 925MB TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -14C RANGE.
SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG I-80 IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA WITH A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH CAN
BE SEEN OVER ALBERTA DROPPING SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 0
TO 5 ABOVE RANGE.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO LITTLE CHANGE IS REQUIRED. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
SOME OF THE ADVISORIES EARLY. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SNOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLDER 925MB AIR IS PROGGED TO ADVECT IN TO PLACE THAT
MOISTURE/CLOUD DECK INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WEAK OMEGA IS
PROGGED IN THIS CLOUD DECK FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO HAVE CARRIED
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. IN
FACT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN THE 03.12Z GFS/NAM SO
CONTINUED TO CARRY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACTUAL ACCUMULATING SNOW
THERE. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...BUT
THE ADVECTION OF COLDER 925MB AIR SHOULD STILL BRING READINGS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND SNOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ZONE OCCURS
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
CURRENT WARM FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF I-70. 03.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
PUSH THIS ZONE AND SNOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. 03.12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO NOW DRY OUT NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. GIVEN THIS TREND IN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF...HAVE REMOVED THE
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT PICK UP SNOW...EXPECT FALLING LATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DROPS SOUTH. 925MB TEMPS FALL FROM
-12 TO -14C AT 12Z TO -14 TO -18C BY 00Z. THE NORTH WINDS WHICH
COULD GUST TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY ALONG/WEST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 52...ESPECIALLY IF THE WINDS COME IN ANY STRONGER.
RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS...
1. CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS AND WIND CHILLS
2. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY
3. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR ALL OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
COLD ADVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -16 AND
-20C...WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK BELOW
ZERO...WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO
20 BELOW. WINDS DECOUPLING SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
NEED...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 WHERE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
LATE TO GIVE SOME BREEZE.
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR. COULD SEE HIGHS REACH TO OR
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ALSO ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG I-90. A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN...WITH SOME TREND TO DROP IT FARTHER
SOUTHWEST. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AND REQUIRING A MENTION OF
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-94.
THE WEEKEND IS PROVING MORE INTERESTING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH...POSSIBLY ONE POTENT ONE
THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ALL MODELS SHOW A
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SETTING UP FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST IOWA AS WELL. AT A MINIMUM IT APPEARS AN ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED...BUT LOCATION IS STILL WELL UP IN THE AIR.
COLDER...DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MONDAY...RESULTING FROM DEEPER TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
UPPER RIDGE COMING THROUGH...ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT THAT THE
VFR CONDITIONS THAT PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. COULD STILL BE
SOME FLURRIES AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. ONCE THIS WAVE GOES BY...THE FLURRIES SHOULD END
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUBSIDENCE COMBINED
WITH SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AND PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
OPEN REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE 03.15Z
SREF HAD SHOWN A SMALL SIGNAL FOR SOME IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN THE BLOWING SNOW BUT THE 03.21Z SREF DID NOT HAVE THIS SIGNAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS AS KRST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN WITH THE
BLOWING SNOW ENDING AFTER SUNSET AS THE SUBSIDENCE DECREASES AND
THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AS THE INVERSION FORMS TO CUT OFF THE
MIXING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1001 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
TWO BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SETTING UP OVER THE CWFA. FIRST ONE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THE SECOND FROM THE NORTH
LARAMIE RANGE...TO WHEATLAND...SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS SECOND BAND IS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW COOLING CLOUD
TOPS ALL ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTHWESTERN WYOMING DOWN TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. 00Z GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF
MODERATE QPF LAYING ROUGHLY ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 12Z AND
SLIGHTLY BEYOND. WITH QPFS WELL OVER A HALF INCH AND 20:1
RATIOS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PLATTE AND GOSHEN COUTHIES ARE
GOING TO SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT. FAVORED AREA OF A 110KT JET
AS WELL SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIFT. WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND IN AN
EARLIER UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL SOME
DECENT GUSTS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE SNOW EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SEVERAL MINOR RIPPLES OF ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING A HEAVIER BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING WITH BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AND JET DYNAMICS IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS AND EXPECTED SNOW
PRODUCTION HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS
AREA. REST OF HILITES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH HAVE
TRIMMED EXPIRATION TIME OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SNOW
APPEARS TO BE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT FASTER NOW. SHOULD JUST BE
SOME MTNS SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FLURRIES
ELSEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
SFC HIGH DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW PATTERN THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
BACK EAST THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND LEE TROFFING
DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME WINDINESS LOOKS TO RETURN
AROUND THE SE WY MTNS THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
WEATHER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WEATHER
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S EAST AND 30S WEST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GFS SHOWING A SOLID 50 TO 60 KTS OVER THESE AREAS
AT 18Z. DEPENDING ON WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND...SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS COULD STRETCH FARTHER EAST...SUCH AS INTO CHEYENNE.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A DECENT POSSIBILITY INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE
PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANYTHING NEAR AS COLD AS A FEW WEEKS AGO...BUT CERTAINLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
LATEST HRRR USED AS A GUIDE FOR THE 06Z TAFS. IFR...AND
PREDOMINANTLY LIFR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. LOOKS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING AFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2015
CONCERNS TO REMAIN QUITE LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS
THE ONLY FACTOR. SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE AREA INTO WEDS THEN A
DRIER PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA AGAIN. WINDIER PATTERN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ102.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ101-103-
106>108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-
115>119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ002-095.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ003-
019>021-096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ054-055.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
750 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND INCREASE
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS TO
REFRESH FRONT END METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM
READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN
GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH
RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD
ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY
...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.
FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT
AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER
WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL
STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN
WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS
BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO
WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT
LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND
KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT
LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT
WARMER THAN ON FRI.
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN
INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN.
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.
HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS
THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN
CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE
MTN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
FOR KCOS AND KPUB...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SNOW SHOWERS(ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KCOS TAF SITE).
IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT BOTH THE KCOS AND
THE KPUB TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO
THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. KALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
738 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND INCREASE
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS TO
REFRESH FRONT END METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM
READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN
GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH
RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD
ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY
...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.
FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT
AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER
WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL
STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN
WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS
BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO
WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT
LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND
KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT
LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT
WARMER THAN ON FRI.
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN
INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN.
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.
HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS
THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN
CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE
MTN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
FOR KCOS AND KPUB...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SNOW SHOWERS(ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KCOS TAF SITE).
IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT BOTH THE KCOS AND
THE KPUB TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO
THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. KALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
500 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM
READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN
GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH
RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD
ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY
...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.
FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT
AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER
WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL
STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN
WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS
BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO
WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT
LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND
KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT
LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT
WARMER THAN ON FRI.
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN
INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN.
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.
HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS
THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN
CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE
MTN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
FOR KCOS AND KPUB...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AS WELL
AS SNOW SHOWERS(ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KCOS TAF SITE).
IN ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT BOTH THE KCOS AND
THE KPUB TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO
THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. KALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
553 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today.
Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to
try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast
across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south
through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the
warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the
temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and
upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between
14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska
continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast
area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty
impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb
particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois
through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of
snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day,
but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast
pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the
snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good
shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser
amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an
SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further
south when the snow moves through.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Snow should be ending across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois early this evening as the shortwave shifts east of the
area. A blast of Arctic air will follow in the wake of the snow
today. Temperatures near or below zero are expected Thursday
morning near the center of the high in northern Missouri...with only
single digits to low teens elsewhere. With such a cold start to
Thursday, we likely won`t crack freezing during the afternoon over
most of the area. However, the high moves southeast through the day
and return flow on the western side of the high starts ramping up by
00Z Friday. Temperature forecast will likely be tricky for Thursday
night into Friday morning due to the return flow. Have nearly
steady hourly temps overnight at this time, but they may even rise
slowly. Friday looks as much as 20 degrees warmer than Thursday.
Mild and dry weather looks to continue for the weekend into next
week. There`s a slight chance of some precipitation Sunday into
Monday as a shortwave moves southeast across the area and amplifies
over the Eastern Seaboard. The cold high pressure which gets
dragged south in the wake of the wave still looks to brush by us to
the north. While it looks like temperatures will fall back below
seasonal normals, the teeth of the cold air will likely stay north
of our area.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Arctic front currently approaching nw side of the STL area attm,
while today`s snowfall for our area is currently over NE and w IA and
rapidly spreading ESE. At this time, clouds are aoa 10kft in and
near the FA, and we are not yet seeing the expected development of
MVFR stratus in the wake of the cold front. Lack of upstream low
cloud deck is making this development somewhat uncertain, but
given the low level saturation that all the models are forecasting
have continued with the development of these MVFR cigs, albeit a
bit slower than in 06z issuance. However, all guidance indicates
IFR cigs and vsbys developing shortly after the onset of the snow,
and there is excellent agreement in the hi-res models with
regards to the start times (16-17z @ KUIN, 19-21z @ COU, and
20-22z in STL metro). Snow should end over our n counties by mid-
late afternoon, and taper off over STL metro by early evening.
Forecast soundings and plan view low level RH progs suggest fairly
rapid clearing several hours after the end of the snowfall, and
have followed this trend.
Specifics for KSTL: Arctic front will be passing through the STL
area over the next 1-2 hours, with a gradual increase in northerly winds.
Clouds should remain aoa 10kft for most of the morning, but still
expect a threat of MVFR cigs developing around midday, followed by
the onset of snow that will take ceilings and vsbys in the IFR cat
from mid afternoon into the early evening. As mentioned above, all
of the hi-res guidance is very similar with onset and end of the
snow followed by rapidly clearing, and it appears that the MVFR
cigs in the wake of the snowfall should clear out no later than 06z.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 34 10 27 22 / 90 30 0 0
Quincy 22 -1 20 16 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 30 7 28 22 / 90 10 0 0
Jefferson City 33 8 30 23 / 90 10 0 0
Salem 38 12 26 21 / 80 70 0 0
Farmington 43 11 30 21 / 90 80 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox
MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams
IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
546 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN WY INTO
ERN CO...WHILE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER OVER CNTRL MT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEBR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING SOUTH IS KEEPING SNOW SOUTH OF FAR NRN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
TODAY...
WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO FAR...THIS SYSTEM OBSERVED FROM RADAR...SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST FORECAST OF SNOWFALL TOTALS
GAVE ABOUT AN INCH INCREASE FOR CUSTER COUNTY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INCREASE OF A HALF INCH FOR HOOKER...AND THOMAS COUNTY.
CONVECTIVE FEATURES SHOWN ON KLNX RADAR AND ADJACENT RADARS TO
OUR WEST ARE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITH
NEGATIVE EPV. STRONG OMEGA OF 15 MICROBARS LIFT IN THE 12C TO
-18C DENDRITIC LAYER SHOWN BY 13KM RAP MODEL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z...THEN DECREASING
THROUGH 15Z AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. HAVE UPGRADED HOOKER...THOMAS...BLAINE
AND CUSTER COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 5 TO 7 INCH
TOTALS ARE LIKELY. TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CNTRL GARDEN
COUNTY EAST ACROSS ARTHUR...MCPHERSON...LOGAN COUNTY. REST OF
GOING COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. NORTH WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS
WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. ALL WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CNTRL SANDHILLS AND EAST TO NEAR 25 AT
IML.
TONIGHT...
THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AS WINDS ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA BECOME
SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 15 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE LOWS TONIGHT AND IF WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME EVEN
LOWER. FORECAST LOWS ARE FOR NEAR 1 BELOW IN WHEELER COUNTY WHILE
WESTERN COUNTIES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. SOME CLOUDINESS IS
FORECAST IN THE WEST AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
IN THE MID AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A COLD AND CHILLY DAY TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
MIXING DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS AND
GENERALLY AT COLDEST OR BELOW GUIDANCE...IN THE 40S TO UPPER 30S.
IN EXTREME SW NEBRASKA WHERE ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY
REMAIN...HIGHS AROUND 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
/DOWNSLOPING/ WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL AID IN MIXING THE BL ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALSO WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS AT AND
ABOVE 10C FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
60S AND 50S...HOWEVER TRENDED DOWN OVER THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW
FIELD IN FAVOR OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY HAS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW
MELT WILL ALSO HAVE OCCURRED AND THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE DIMINISH
AND HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT...ALTHOUGH SOME. HIGHS STILL IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL...WHERE 850 MB TEMPS THE COOLEST...10C
TO 13C. WESTERN ZONES RANGE FROM AROUND 12C IN THE N TO AROUND
17C IN THE S. ACROSS SW NEB WITH THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WHAT
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW REMAINING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX
WELL. GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER
70S...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS DUE TO A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA.
CONTINUED DRY FOR NEXT WEEK AS ROCKIES RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY IN
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS TO CAUSE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST IS DRY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG. WHILE NOT SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS...THE WARMER TEMPS WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND AN INCREASE IN
NEAR SFC MOISTURE. AS TEMPS COOL AT NIGHT...FOG CAN NOT BE RULED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
THE AREA OF SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY REMAINS AT KLBF...KOGA AND
KBBW. BLOWING SNOW WITH VSBY TO 1/2SM. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE SEEN
BY 14Z TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES. AT KVTN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR BY 16Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-008-027>029-056-058-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ022>026-035>038-057-059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
502 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS PINNING DOWN SN ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
OVER THE CWA. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUPPORT GOING FCST WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE SRN CWA IS ON TRACK...AND IS SUPPORTED BY HIRES
ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF
SNOW OVER WRN NEB BEGINNING TO EXPAND EWD...AND SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO THE WRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AS MENTIONED...EXPECT THE SRN
CWA TO RECEIVE BRUNT OF ACCUMULATION THRU THIS MORNING WHERE AXIS
OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/ IS PROGGED TO SET UP. AS FOR
AMOUNTS...BELIEVE AMOUNTS PROVIDED BY THE HIRES PROGS/COBB DATA
ARE QUITE REASONABLE DEPICTING ANYWHERE FROM 2-5 INCHES GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOONE COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY...AND 1-2
INCHES NORTH. SNOWFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY TO COME TO A CLOSE BY EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A GENEROUS WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY...AND LOWER/MID 40S FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO
CONTEND WITH THRU THE EXTENDED PDS AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS
FROM ZONAL TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ECM MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK MORE REASONABLE
WITH LOWER/MID 40S ON SAT/SUN AS OPPOSED THE MEX PUSHING HIGHS
GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S.
MEX AND DETERMINISTIC ECM IN AGREEMENT A BIT COLDER THEN ON MONDAY
WITH MID/UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR INTO MID MORNING AT KOFK
AND INTO MID OR LATE MORNING FOR KOMA AND KLNK. A PERIOD OF MFVR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT...THEN EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ068-
088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ030-042>045-
050>053-065>067-078.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090-
091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ069-079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N
TX. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IMPACT CSM...HBR...AND SPS
JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS A
LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN
A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY AROUND 15Z AT WWR/GAG...AND
THEN AROUND 18Z FOR MOST OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS NEAR
35 TO 40 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSM AND HBR. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY
DEVELOP NEAR PNC EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR PNC...BUT VISBYS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4SM. SNOW/ICE PELLETS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
OKC/OUN THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. EXPECT IT
TO MOVE INTO NW OK AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL OK 18Z...AND N TX 20Z OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FA BASED ON PRESSURE/TEMP
GRADIENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAV/LAV AND MET MOS BOTH
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED. SOME LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODEL QPF (LAYER TOO DRY) HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR OUR AREA BUT NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET...MAKING
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKC. REGARDLESS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TRAVEL
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TOMORROW MORNING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...WITH MIN WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY FRIDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY NEAR 80 FOR NW OK AND W N TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I35...IF THE SUGGESTED 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 TO 20C
ARE CONFIRMED. THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MON-TUE. IT MAY
ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 18 41 30 / 10 20 0 0
HOBART OK 47 19 43 30 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 24 43 30 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 37 15 49 31 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 12 39 27 / 30 30 0 0
DURANT OK 55 26 42 31 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
11/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
501 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT... AS WILL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION... WHICH MAY TRANSITION TO ANY TYPE OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO LOW CHANCES AND LOW EXPECTED
COVERAGE... PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 5 HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH BUT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT EXPECT MOST GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY GOES ON. AS THE
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S IN MOST PLACES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A
DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT THE REAL WARMUP WILL KICK INTO
HIGH GEAR FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...AND QUITE POSSIBLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 70S WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE MODEL PROGGED 900 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AN EXCELLENT INDICATOR OF HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS THE PAST FEW WEEKS...INDICATE THAT THIS
FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS FROM FRIDAY ON.
SOME UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP IN BY MONDAY AS THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS INTRUSION
ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND THAT TREND CONTINUES ON ITS MOST
RECENT RUN. IN ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW LITTLE OR NO COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW OF THE
MEMBERS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AT THAT
TIME RATHER THAN DECREASE. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH THE COOLDOWN
ADVERTISED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO LAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
STAYED NEAR THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A
NON DIURNAL TREND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT
AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT THEN WENT WITH A
MIX OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
443 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. EXPECT IT
TO MOVE INTO NW OK AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL OK 18Z...AND N TX 20Z OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FA BASED ON PRESSURE/TEMP
GRADIENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAV/LAV AND MET MOS BOTH
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED. SOME LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODEL QPF (LAYER TOO DRY) HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR OUR AREA BUT NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET...MAKING
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKC. REGARDLESS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TRAVEL
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TOMORROW MORNING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...WITH MIN WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY FRIDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY NEAR 80 FOR NW OK AND W N TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I35...IF THE SUGGESTED 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 TO 20C
ARE CONFIRMED. THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MON-TUE. IT MAY
ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 18 41 30 / 10 20 0 0
HOBART OK 47 19 43 30 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 24 43 30 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 37 15 49 31 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 12 39 27 / 30 30 0 0
DURANT OK 55 26 42 31 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
11/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR/OBS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE NE ZONES BY 13-14Z.
LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER
GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL
UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND
WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA
CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS
WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS.
MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN
12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF
THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE
FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE
SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD
FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE
FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR
SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE
NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ARCTIC CHILL IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP
NEAR 40N THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN IN CENTRAL
PA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED TO TREND
POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 4-6 RANGE BUT DETAILS SUCH AS RAIN-SNOW
LINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LKLY THE
MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL TO
NEAR AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS LIGHT SNOW IS FADING AND THE LAST VESTAGES OF IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE NW MTNS...ENDING BY 14Z. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TODAY...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A
DEEPENING THROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE SKIES WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 22Z AT BFD...WITH
JST...AOO...UNV AND IPT FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 01 TO 04Z
RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...BETWEEN 09 TO
12Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AND BE VFR BY MID
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
647 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR/OBS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE NE ZONES BY 13-14Z.
LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER
GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL
UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND
WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA
CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS
WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS.
MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN
12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF
THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE
FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE
SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD
FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE
FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR
SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE
NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ARCTIC CHILL IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP
NEAR 40N THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN IN CENTRAL
PA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED TO TREND
POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 4-6 RANGE BUT DETAILS SUCH AS RAIN-SNOW
LINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LKLY THE
MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL TO
NEAR AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. THE
WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT AOO.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PROGGED TO BE FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH MAINLY MVFR IS
PROBABLE AT UNV...MDT AND LNS. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
615 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER
GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL
UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND
WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA
CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS
WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS.
MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN
12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF
THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE
FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE
SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD
FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE
FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR
SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE
NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ARCTIC AIR IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS PA ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD.
A MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVE TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR SUN-
MON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH LATE WEEKEND EVOLUTION OF STORM. 850MB TEMPS /ALBEIT
QUITE FAR OUT IN TIME/ LOOK TO POTENTIALLY SLIP ABOVE 0C ACROSS
THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THERE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUES...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS AT BFD. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
901 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST WINDS THIS MORNING FOR A SWIFT-MOVING COLD
FRONT NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE. FROPA JUST OCCURRED AT
GUY WITH N WINDS PEAKING AT 41 KNOTS. RECENT RUC IS ON TRACK WITH
THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE JUST PAST
NOON. SKY COVER WAS ALSO ADJUSTED ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLES FOR
WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL STRATUS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
MCZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN SPEEDS. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING FOR SURFACE GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 KT WILL BE ISSUED FOR AMARILLO AREA AIRPORTS SHORTLY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...
LINGERING OVERHEAD ALL DAY AROUND NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND NOT LIFTING
INTO VFR RANGE UNTIL THIS EVENING AT KAMA. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 20 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEFORE 06Z
THURSDAY. NO EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS KANSAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. AS WITH MOST THINGS...TIMING IS EVERYTHING...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD VARY GREATLY BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE FROPA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RISE...BUT FURTHER INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY. FOR
NOW..HAVE OPTED FOR A TIGHT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME UBIQUITOUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
THINK A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 40
MPH...MANY LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH THE CRITERIA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ADD IN
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...A GOOD 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK...BUT DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FROM EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND. WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS QUIET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER...
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. THESE NEAR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
ELSENHEIMER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
430 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 110-KT WIND MAXIMA OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE AND
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CO. COMBINED LIFT FROM LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A PRONOUNCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NE
PANHANDLE. IR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE
OF HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF AN INCH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
PROGS THIS BAND TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80...
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH CREATED BLOWING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES OVER
SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN FROM THE 30S
AND 40S INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON NEAR SHORT TERM WITH SNOWFALL
AND LATER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 00Z/06Z
NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PRIMARY
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING WITH SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DECREASING BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FOR
ALL BUT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. AFTER ALL IS
SAID AND DONE...THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES CAN EXPECT A
FEW FEET OF SNOW...WITH A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 14
INCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE.
AREAS SOUTH TOWARD THE CO BORDER WILL LIKELY MEASURE 3 TO 6
INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR EARLY
MORNING COMMUTERS AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MID MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TODAY.
A CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN WY AND CO. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CRAIG-CASPER
700/850 MB GRADIENTS INCREASE ABOVE 50 MTRS TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK
UP WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
AND SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE WINDY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE
AREAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE DECENT
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND PRODUCE A MILD AND WINDY DAY WITH OUR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. PROGGED
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WEST WINDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
SATURDAY...EVEN MORE WINDY WITH SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB GRADIENTS
INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT OUR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED MILD
BASED ON PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES.
SUNDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A PACIFIC
ORIGIN COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WITH LITTLE LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...KEEPING OUR
WEATHER DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOT QUITE AS WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
AND COOLING DOWN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR TODAY IN SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR
TONIGHT AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED...AND WINDS
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...
MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND
FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ102-
105.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ101-103-
106>108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-
115>119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
114.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ002-
095.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ003-
019>021-096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ054-
055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1017 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ADD AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND INCREASE
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS TO
REFRESH FRONT END METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY.
MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SNOW ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WHERE 4 AM
READINGS STILL IN THE 40S OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
WARMEST CONDITIONS OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
FROM AROUND NOW INTO THE NEXT FEW HOURS(AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN
GRIDS/ZONES) AS HEALTHY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH
RECENT SIMULATIONS OF BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 15Z THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN SOME 30F OR SO COLDER THAN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD
ONLY EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MINOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDING POPS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 UNTIL 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY LATER TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY IF THE 06Z/4TH GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT...HOWEVER RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY
...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SECTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING TRACE TO ZERO AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALSO A CONCERN THIS MORNING
WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.
FINALLY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT
AS UPPER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF
EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA ON THU...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER
WX TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRI WL
STILL BE DRY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA AND IT LOOKS EVEN
WARMER WITH RECORD HIGHS BEING POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS
BEING AS WARM AS 8C...WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS WARM AND SHOWING
H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS 5C. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRI ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV AND ECM BEING THE WARMEST...BUT WL GO
WITH READING IN BETWEEN THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER MET. IT
LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WL BE CHALLENGED ON FRI AT KCOS AND
KPUB. THE RECORD FOR KPUB ON FRI IS 68 AND FOR KCOS IS 65. SAT
LOOKS VERY WARM AS WELL BUT RECORD HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE A BIT
WARMER THAN ON FRI.
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...AN
INCREASE IN MSTR IS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF THEN MOVES THRU THE STATE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN.
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PCPN...MAINLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
DURING THE DAY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.
HIGHS ON SUN WL BE COOLER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.
THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVR THE AREA ON MON AND HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE AS
THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR TROF MOVING ACRS CO ALONG WITH PCPN
CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPR TROF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE STATE. FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR SOME OF THE
MTN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
KCOS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL. CIGS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 1000 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER MONUMENT HILL
AND WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE FLOW
TURNS NORTHEASTERLY AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
KPUB...EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL TURN A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1000 FEET
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. MODELS KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION BANKED ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OUTSIDE THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
225 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
RADAR RETURNS INDICATED LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
IR IMAGERY INDICATED OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
AREA. RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STEADY
PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL STREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT.
ALL SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME FOG POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT SEEM TO SHOW
A WELL DEFINED SATURATED LAYER OVER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...SO
NO FOG IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE MID MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH WARM FRONT.
A STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE LOWER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED FEB 4 2015
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOPPING THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
ABOVE 7KFT AGL. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
BUSY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.
KGLD WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO 2 MILES. SNOW WILL END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. TAF GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING 1/4
VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z FOR KGLD...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DID NOT
INDICATE A VERY WELL DEFINED SURFACE SATURATION LAYER. WITH THE
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IF THE
FOG WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES. WITH
A LOWER LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT KMCK...SNOW WILL ALSO END BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERCAST
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LIKELY PAST ITS
PEAK OF IMPACT. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. DRY SLOT APPEARS TO BE COMING IN QUICKLY WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THIS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS DRYER AIR MOVING IN AS WELL. THUS
HAVING LESS FAITH IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MUCH PRECIP
WILL BE AROUND AFTER 00Z. THE HRRR DOES CAPTURE THE CURRENT SWATH IN
PLACE BUT SHOWS NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COMING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THATS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/LA BORDER. BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE...THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. THEREFORE...HAVE
SUBSTANTIALLY DROPPED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 06Z AND THEN
NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...COULD THERE/S A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE RAIN COULD MOVE THROUGH SOONER AND ALL BE DONE BY 00Z.
BASICALLY SAYING THAT THE POP FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
OF TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND ALL NIGHT...SO NOT THINKING THAT TEMPS
WILL FALL TOO MUCH. THUS HAVE KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND OPEN WHILE IT MERGES WITH A MUCH
DEEP THROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER
TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
BRIEF MID WEEK WARMUP IS POSSIBLE IF RIDGE TO THE WEST FINALLY MAKES
ITS WAY OVER THE AREA.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WITH DRY
SLOT SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUD
DECK NEAR FL010 TO BE VARIABLE IN AREAL COVERAGE AT MOST TERMINALS
WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR SEVERAL TIMES
DURING THE NIGHT. 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY LOSE THE LOW
CLOUDS...BUT MAINTAIN SOME NEAR FL050 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. 35
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
BEEN A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIGS IN OUR OUTER
COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE
WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE
SOUNDS AND LAKE BORGNE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
HEADLINE FREE...BUT IT MAY GET CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LATE
TONIGHT.
ONCE CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HEADLINES PROBABLY NECESSARY AT THAT
POINT. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 51 29 56 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 42 54 33 57 / 20 10 0 0
ASD 43 58 34 57 / 20 10 0 0
MSY 46 56 38 56 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 43 57 34 55 / 20 10 0 0
PQL 41 57 32 55 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1032 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Forecast still looks on track for some snow across the area today.
Actually, have made only small tweaks to the forecast, primarily to
try and nail down timing the precipitation as it moves southeast
across the area. Currently, a strong cold front is moving south
through northern Missouri and central Illinois. Temperatures in the
warm sector were mainly in the mid to upper 30s at 200 AM while the
temperatures north of the front drop sharply into the mid 20s and
upper teens. RAP has the front through the I-70 corridor between
14-15Z with the area of snow currently over central Nebraska
continuing to build southeast into northern portions of the forecast
area about that time. All guidance continues to show some pretty
impressive frontogenetical forcing from 925 through 700 mb
particularly over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois
through 18-19Z. This should be where we get the greatest amount of
snow accumulation. The forcing shifts southeast through the day,
but it also weakens. Drier low level air also builds southeast
pretty quickly through the afternoon which should help to shut the
snow off from north to south. Think the going advisory is in good
shape with 2-3 inches still in the forecast up north, and lesser
amounts further south. Will keep the advisory as is, and issue an
SPS to advise of possible traffic issues this afternoon further
south when the snow moves through.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Snow should be ending across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois early this evening as the shortwave shifts east of the
area. A blast of Arctic air will follow in the wake of the snow
today. Temperatures near or below zero are expected Thursday
morning near the center of the high in northern Missouri...with only
single digits to low teens elsewhere. With such a cold start to
Thursday, we likely won`t crack freezing during the afternoon over
most of the area. However, the high moves southeast through the day
and return flow on the western side of the high starts ramping up by
00Z Friday. Temperature forecast will likely be tricky for Thursday
night into Friday morning due to the return flow. Have nearly
steady hourly temps overnight at this time, but they may even rise
slowly. Friday looks as much as 20 degrees warmer than Thursday.
Mild and dry weather looks to continue for the weekend into next
week. There`s a slight chance of some precipitation Sunday into
Monday as a shortwave moves southeast across the area and amplifies
over the Eastern Seaboard. The cold high pressure which gets
dragged south in the wake of the wave still looks to brush by us to
the north. While it looks like temperatures will fall back below
seasonal normals, the teeth of the cold air will likely stay north
of our area.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1019 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2015
Band of snow closing in on KUIN at this hour and will progress
east southeastward into remaining TAF sites this afternoon. IFR
visibilities and ceilings expected with heavier snow at KUIN, with
low end MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities at remaining TAF sites.
Snow will last about 3 hours, then expect rapid clearing as dry
arctic air moves in. Northwest winds will diminish overnight and
become light and variable by daybreak on Thursday.
Specifics for KSTL: Snow band should move in by around 21Z with
IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings. This should last about 3
hours...with skies then clearing by 05Z. Northwest winds will
diminish overnight and become light and variable by daybreak on
Thursday.
Browning
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 39 9 26 21 / 90 40 0 0
Quincy 23 -1 19 15 / 90 5 0 0
Columbia 33 6 27 20 / 90 20 0 0
Jefferson City 35 8 29 21 / 90 20 0 0
Salem 40 10 25 19 / 80 70 0 0
Farmington 43 10 29 19 / 90 80 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Knox
MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR Adams
IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
108 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN WY INTO
ERN CO...WHILE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER OVER CNTRL MT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEBR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING SOUTH IS KEEPING SNOW SOUTH OF FAR NRN NEBR ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
TODAY...
WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO FAR...THIS SYSTEM OBSERVED FROM RADAR...SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BEHAVING MUCH LIKE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST FORECAST OF SNOWFALL TOTALS
GAVE ABOUT AN INCH INCREASE FOR CUSTER COUNTY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INCREASE OF A HALF INCH FOR HOOKER...AND THOMAS COUNTY.
CONVECTIVE FEATURES SHOWN ON KLNX RADAR AND ADJACENT RADARS TO
OUR WEST ARE INDICATIVE OF CONVECTIVE SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITH
NEGATIVE EPV. STRONG OMEGA OF 15 MICROBARS LIFT IN THE 12C TO
-18C DENDRITIC LAYER SHOWN BY 13KM RAP MODEL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z...THEN DECREASING
THROUGH 15Z AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AND MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. HAVE UPGRADED HOOKER...THOMAS...BLAINE
AND CUSTER COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE 5 TO 7 INCH
TOTALS ARE LIKELY. TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CNTRL GARDEN
COUNTY EAST ACROSS ARTHUR...MCPHERSON...LOGAN COUNTY. REST OF
GOING COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK. NORTH WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AS
WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. ALL WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS CNTRL SANDHILLS AND EAST TO NEAR 25 AT
IML.
TONIGHT...
THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AS WINDS ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA BECOME
SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO 15 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE LOWS TONIGHT AND IF WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME EVEN
LOWER. FORECAST LOWS ARE FOR NEAR 1 BELOW IN WHEELER COUNTY WHILE
WESTERN COUNTIES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. SOME CLOUDINESS IS
FORECAST IN THE WEST AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN
IN THE MID AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER A COLD AND CHILLY DAY TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED
MIXING DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS AND
GENERALLY AT COLDEST OR BELOW GUIDANCE...IN THE 40S TO UPPER 30S.
IN EXTREME SW NEBRASKA WHERE ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY
REMAIN...HIGHS AROUND 50 WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WARM UP CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
/DOWNSLOPING/ WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL AID IN MIXING THE BL ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALSO WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS AT AND
ABOVE 10C FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
60S AND 50S...HOWEVER TRENDED DOWN OVER THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW
FIELD IN FAVOR OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY HAS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SNOW
MELT WILL ALSO HAVE OCCURRED AND THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE DIMINISH
AND HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT...ALTHOUGH SOME. HIGHS STILL IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS N CENTRAL...WHERE 850 MB TEMPS THE COOLEST...10C
TO 13C. WESTERN ZONES RANGE FROM AROUND 12C IN THE N TO AROUND
17C IN THE S. ACROSS SW NEB WITH THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WHAT
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW REMAINING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX
WELL. GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER
70S...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS DUE TO A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE AREA.
CONTINUED DRY FOR NEXT WEEK AS ROCKIES RIDGE REDEVELOPS EARLY IN
THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF CLIPPERS TO CAUSE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST IS DRY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG. WHILE NOT SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS...THE WARMER TEMPS WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND AN INCREASE IN
NEAR SFC MOISTURE. AS TEMPS COOL AT NIGHT...FOG CAN NOT BE RULED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS
TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS PINNING DOWN SN ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
OVER THE CWA. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUPPORT GOING FCST WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE SRN CWA IS ON TRACK...AND IS SUPPORTED BY HIRES
ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING AREA OF
SNOW OVER WRN NEB BEGINNING TO EXPAND EWD...AND SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO THE WRN CWA IN A MATTER OF HOURS. AS MENTIONED...EXPECT THE SRN
CWA TO RECEIVE BRUNT OF ACCUMULATION THRU THIS MORNING WHERE AXIS
OF DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/ IS PROGGED TO SET UP. AS FOR
AMOUNTS...BELIEVE AMOUNTS PROVIDED BY THE HIRES PROGS/COBB DATA
ARE QUITE REASONABLE DEPICTING ANYWHERE FROM 2-5 INCHES GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOONE COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY...AND 1-2
INCHES NORTH. SNOWFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECT ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY TO COME TO A CLOSE BY EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A GENEROUS WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID 20S ON THURSDAY...AND LOWER/MID 40S FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO
CONTEND WITH THRU THE EXTENDED PDS AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS
FROM ZONAL TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ECM MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK MORE REASONABLE
WITH LOWER/MID 40S ON SAT/SUN AS OPPOSED THE MEX PUSHING HIGHS
GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S.
MEX AND DETERMINISTIC ECM IN AGREEMENT A BIT COLDER THEN ON MONDAY
WITH MID/UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH
00Z AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ068-
088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090-
091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20 TO
30 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED...WITH VSBYS RANGING
FROM 1SM TO 1/4SM. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...FOG SHOULD
CLEAR...BUT LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM
KOKC/KOUN NORTHWARD TO KPNC FROM 21Z THROUGH 06Z. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT VISIBILITIES MAY BE AFFECTED IF
BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY AT KPNC. BY 10Z TO 12Z
THURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LIFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N
TX. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IMPACT CSM...HBR...AND SPS
JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS A
LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN
A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY AROUND 15Z AT WWR/GAG...AND
THEN AROUND 18Z FOR MOST OTHER TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS NEAR
35 TO 40 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSM AND HBR. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY
DEVELOP NEAR PNC EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR PNC...BUT VISBYS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 4SM. SNOW/ICE PELLETS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
OKC/OUN THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST WED FEB 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. EXPECT IT
TO MOVE INTO NW OK AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL OK 18Z...AND N TX 20Z OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FA BASED ON PRESSURE/TEMP
GRADIENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAV/LAV AND MET MOS BOTH
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTS LIKE THIS ONE ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED. SOME LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODEL QPF (LAYER TOO DRY) HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR OUR AREA BUT NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW...AND PERHAPS SLEET...MAKING
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS OKC. REGARDLESS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE TRAVEL
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TOMORROW MORNING UNDER THE SFC RIDGE...WITH MIN WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY FRIDAY AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY NEAR 80 FOR NW OK AND W N TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I35...IF THE SUGGESTED 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 TO 20C
ARE CONFIRMED. THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS DRY FOR NOW...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MON-TUE. IT MAY
ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 18 41 30 67 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 19 43 30 68 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 24 43 30 70 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 15 49 31 72 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 12 39 27 65 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 26 42 31 64 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>030-033>040-
044-045.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>036.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
04/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS/HRRR/OBS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE NE ZONES BY 13-14Z.
LEAD S/W AND WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY MOVG ENE THROUGH THE LOWER
GRT LKS INTO SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY IS COMBINING WITH THERMAL
UPGLIDE AND DECENT MSTR TRANSPORT /ON THE NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ AND
WEAK PW AXIS IN THE OH VLY/ TO SUPPORT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
AREA OF LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE SNOW OVER NE OH/FAR NWRN PA
CONTINUING TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NCNTRL COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATIONS
WITH MAX AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVER THE NW MTNS.
MUCH OF THE TIME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE NY BORDER TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE...AIDED BY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVVS...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AXIS OF
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS/H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MODEL
QPF WITH CLIMO SLR AND INTERNAL WPCWWD WHICH RESULTED IN 1-3" AMTS
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/NW ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MTNS AND
NRN COAL REGION. ELSEWHERE AMTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A 150M HEIGHT FALL CENTER SHOULD MOVE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN
12-18Z THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
THE GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH SHIFTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CROSSING THE NRN MID ATLC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED RUNS OF
THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC HAVE MADE MOVE IN THE
FASTER DIRECTION PLACING THEM CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFS AND BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE LEANED MORE ON THE
SREF/GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD
FEATURE SOME MINOR ACCUMS BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO THE BITTER COLD.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WC VALUES ARE
FCST TO RANGE FROM -20F IN THE NRN MTNS TO AROUND 0F IN THE LWR
SUSQ. SOME CONCERN WITH FCST LOW TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND STG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NW OF THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET HOWEVER DID ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE
NRN TIER AS MODELS SHOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVING ESE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ARCTIC CHILL IS SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY SAT ON
RETURN FLOW WAA. AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP
NEAR 40N THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN IN CENTRAL
PA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONTINUED TO TREND
POPS HIGHER IN THE DAY 4-6 RANGE BUT DETAILS SUCH AS RAIN-SNOW
LINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LKLY THE
MOST VULNERABLE TO MIXED PCPN. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL TO
NEAR AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE AS OF 1530Z.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A BLANKET OF VFR STRATO CU ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY TAF SITES WHILE JUST SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS AND ALTOCU WILL OCCUR. KBFD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS
ALL DAY TODAY..THEN LOWER TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW LATE
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GLAKES GETS INVOLVED AND LIFTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NWRN PENN.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VFR STRATO CU DECK MAY
TEMPORARILY NOSE NORTH TO AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ESE ACROSS THE STATE.
SW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND WRN PENN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GUST INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW IN THE
WAKE OF THE CFRONT OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 22Z AT
BFD...WITH JST...AOO...UNV AND IPT FOLLOWING SUIT BETWEEN 01 TO
04Z RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...BETWEEN 09 TO
12Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AND BE VFR BY MID
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT AM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT PM-SUN...WIDESPREAD SNOW/MIX POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of wet and mild storm systems will produce significant
rains Thursday through the weekend. The mountains of north Idaho
and the Cascades will likely receive several inches of rain by
Monday. Some area rivers and streams will experience rises this
weekend and early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...VERY WET AND MILD WEATHER WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Tonight...Tonight`s weather will revolve around the current warm
frontal band of precipitation sliding into the region from the
southwest. As of 2pm...the leading edge of the precipitation
extended from Colville to Mullan and was slowly drifting
northeast. Widespread light precipitation was occurring in concert
with the front due to weak isentropic ascent. Precipitation from
this will not be heavy as the ascent is relatively weak...however
it will impact most locations of our forecast area. The
precipitation type was rain across most valley locations...except
for the Cascade Valleys...and the valleys of north-central
Washington including the Okanogan. If and when these valleys
change to rain is questionable. The model guidance suggests its
just a matter of time, but suspect this is likely too optimistic
as the mixing potential from this front is quite weak. Drier air
associated with the warm sector of the strong offshore low will
drift northward overnight and this should generally end the threat
of measurable precipitation for a while this evening. Then round 2
comes in. Model guidance is quite variable on what parts of the
forecast area will be impacted later tonight. Most of the guidance
suggests the precipitation will be restricted to locations north
of a line from Kellogg to Moses Lake...however the SREF suggests
the entire forecast area will be impacted. Hard to say what will
verify. The SREF has been trending wetter with successive runs and
shouldn`t be ignored. We will raise pops accordingly across the
southern zones...but will keep things in the chance category
rather than the likely category as supported by the SREF. This
bears watching. This second round will likely produce a little
heavier precipitation as the lift is a bit greater combined with
better moisture availability. Snow levels will rise slowly through
the night as will surface temps (or at least remain steady)...so
most of the snow will occur over the mountains. The exception
could be over the Methow Valley, the northern Okanogan and
locations near the Canadian Border. Snow amounts over these
locations will potentially range from 1 to 2 inches. fx
Thursday through Saturday night...This period encompasses the
core of the upcoming series of sopping wet storm systems.
Satellite imagery displays a deep trough off the Pacific coast
directing a fire hose of moisture up it`s eastern flank and into
the northwestern US. Models are in good agreement with the concept
that this overall pattern will not change much over the next few
days. The trough will fling periodic embedded waves and frontal
complexes through the forecast area...all of them providing lift
and focus for the unusually deep and persistent moisture feed. The
general south/southwest trajectory of the flow will promote rising
snow levels through the period with no significant cold fronts to
bring them back down through Saturday.
Thus...the forecast will consist of periods of steady light to
occasionally moderate rain...interspersed with short relative
break periods of simply occasional light rain. Throughout the
storm train a persistent and occasionally strong southerly
pressure gradient will bring breezy conditions to much of the
exposed terrain especially over the eastern basin. Exposed
locations such as the east basin rising terrain and Pomeroy/Camas
Prairie areas will occasionally become very gusty during the
afternoon and evening hours when mixing of stronger winds from
aloft will be most likely. The well mixed air mass and southerly
flow will also promote well above normal temperatures for the
region.
The only areas which may deviate from this pattern will be the
Okanogan and Methow valleys and only during the first 24 hours
(Thursday) where cold air will be delayed in scrubbing and initial
precipitation will be snow...initially dry and becoming
increasingly wet and slushy culminating in a change over the rain
Thursday afternoon after perhaps 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation. By Friday morning everywhere below 6000 feet will
likely experience rain. The higher mountain ranges above 6000 to
7000 feet may actually pick up substantial snow from this round
of weather.
Hydrology Concerns...The expected rain totals will be heaviest
over the Idaho Panhandle and extreme northeast Washington as well
as the Cascade Crest with amounts in excess of 2 inches over the
next few days below expected snow levels. At this time as these
amounts are incorporated into river flow models no mainstem
rivers are forecast to achieve flood stage...but the forecast
hydrographs have been trending higher over the last few runs. It
is very possible that rivers draining the Central Idaho Panhandle
mountains (the Coeur D`Alene and St. Joe basins in particular) may
experience minor flooding by late this weekend. Since mid
elevation snow pack is currently rather anemic...the contribution
of melting snow to the mix will be less than usual and brings
guarded confidence that there will be no major flooding issues to
deal with. The other concerns are mainly localized minor
mudslides and lowland/urban flooding from clogged culverts. A
Hydrologic Statement has been updated to expound on these
threats...but it is possible actual flood watches and warnings may
be needed this weekend. /Fugazzi
Sunday through Wednesday...Longwave ridge remains in the area and
is oriented in such a way early on in the interval to steer storms
with warm southwest to northeast trajectories of approach through
the area. Indeed the atmospheric river influencing the earlier
portion of the forecast is still in the vicinity and is feeding
into the weather system expected to pass through late Sunday night
and Monday so pops remain peaked in that period along with rather
warm temperatures and robust warm southerly winds keep the snow
levels high and allow rain to prevail as the precipitation type
for all lowland and valley locations and up to past mid-slope on
most northern mountains where a heavy wet snow or rain/snow mix
will fall, which is not too dissimilar to what is called for
earlier in the weekend. Behind the occluded frontal zone exit the
precipitation becomes more showery so the atmosphere is expected
to become somewhat conditionally unstable Monday night, hence the
transition to showery wording and pops that decrease Monday night
into Tuesday. The ridge narrows and amplifies Tuesday night and
beyond which allows for substantial drying for most locations
Tuesday night and for most of Wednesday. With the longwave ridge
in place and an active storm track keeping precipitation and windy
conditions at times in the forecast the forecast temperatures
remain in the warm side of climo coupled with rather high snow
levels. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Warm frontal precipitation will provide the main
weather during most of this period. Cigs and vsbys will vary
wildly between sites...with VFR and brief MVFR possible at LWS and
PUW. Much poorer conditions(IFR-LIFR)will impact the remaining
sites through at least 00z due to a combination of low clouds, fog
and light precipitation. Most of the precip will fall as -ra
except at EAT where it should remain primarily as -sn. Confidence
in timing brief breaks or improvements at these sites is low. We
should see a break in the weather during the evening...but not
sure that will result in improving conditions as low stratus and
fog could remain in place. Another round of rain will arrive
toward the latter end of the forecast periods with conditions
likely a little better than they currently are.fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 44 41 48 42 53 / 80 100 100 90 90 70
Coeur d`Alene 36 44 39 45 40 50 / 80 100 100 100 100 90
Pullman 39 49 43 51 45 54 / 30 100 80 90 80 70
Lewiston 41 52 44 54 46 60 / 30 90 80 90 70 50
Colville 33 40 38 43 40 49 / 90 100 100 100 90 90
Sandpoint 34 39 37 42 39 47 / 90 100 100 100 100 100
Kellogg 33 41 39 43 40 46 / 80 100 100 100 100 100
Moses Lake 38 45 42 52 43 55 / 50 80 70 80 70 40
Wenatchee 34 42 38 49 40 52 / 70 90 90 90 60 60
Omak 33 39 37 43 40 48 / 90 100 100 100 60 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of wet and mild storm systems will produce significant
rains Thursday through the weekend. The mountains of north Idaho
and the Cascades will likely receive several inches of rain by
Monday. Some area rivers and streams will experience rises this
weekend and early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...VERY WET AND MILD WEATHER WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Tonight...Tonight`s weather will revolve around the current warm
frontal band of precipitation sliding into the region from the
southwest. As of 2pm...the leading edge of the precipitation
extended from Colville to Mullan and was slowly drifting
northeast. Widespread light precipitation was occurring in concert
with the front due to weak isentropic ascent. Precipitation from
this will not be heavy as the ascent is relatively weak...however
it will impact most locations of our forecast area. The
precipitation type was rain across most valley locations...except
for the Cascade Valleys...and the valleys of north-central
Washington including the Okanogan. If and when these valleys
change to rain is questionable. The model guidance suggests its
just a matter of time, but suspect this is likely too optimistic
as the mixing potential from this front is quite weak. Drier air
associated with the warm sector of the strong offshore low will
drift northward overnight and this should generally end the threat
of measurable precipitation for a while this evening. Then round 2
comes in. Model guidance is quite variable on what parts of the
forecast area will be impacted later tonight. Most of the guidance
suggests the precipitation will be restricted to locations north
of a line from Kellogg to Moses Lake...however the SREF suggests
the entire forecast area will be impacted. Hard to say what will
verify. The SREF has been trending wetter with successive runs and
shouldn`t be ignored. We will raise pops accordingly across the
southern zones...but will keep things in the chance category
rather than the likely category as supported by the SREF. This
bears watching. This second round will likely produce a little
heavier precipitation as the lift is a bit greater combined with
better moisture availability. Snow levels will rise slowly through
the night as will surface temps (or at least remain steady)...so
most of the snow will occur over the mountains. The exception
could be over the Methow Valley, the northern Okanogan and
locations near the Canadian Border. Snow amounts over these
locations will potentially range from 1 to 2 inches. fx
Thursday through Saturday night...This period encompasses the
core of the upcoming series of sopping wet storm systems.
Satellite imagery displays a deep trough off the Pacific coast
directing a fire hose of moisture up it`s eastern flank and into
the northwestern US. Models are in good agreement with the concept
that this overall pattern will not change much over the next few
days. The trough will fling periodic embedded waves and frontal
complexes through the forecast area...all of them providing lift
and focus for the unusually deep and persistent moisture feed. The
general south/southwest trajectory of the flow will promote rising
snow levels through the period with no significant cold fronts to
bring them back down through Saturday.
Thus...the forecast will consist of periods of steady light to
occasionally moderate rain...interspersed with short relative
break periods of simply occasional light rain. Throughout the
storm train a persistent and occasionally strong southerly
pressure gradient will bring breezy conditions to much of the
exposed terrain especially over the eastern basin. Exposed
locations such as the east basin rising terrain and Pomeroy/Camas
Prairie areas will occasionally become very gusty during the
afternoon and evening hours when mixing of stronger winds from
aloft will be most likely. The well mixed air mass and southerly
flow will also promote well above normal temperatures for the
region.
The only areas which may deviate from this pattern will be the
Okanogan and Methow valleys and only during the first 24 hours
(Thursday) where cold air will be delayed in scrubbing and initial
precipitation will be snow...initially dry and becoming
increasingly wet and slushy culminating in a change over the rain
Thursday afternoon after perhaps 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation. By Friday morning everywhere below 6000 feet will
likely experience rain. The higher mountain ranges above 6000 to
7000 feet may actually pick up substantial snow from this round
of weather.
Hydrology Concerns...The expected rain totals will be heaviest
over the Idaho Panhandle and extreme northeast Washington as well
as the Cascade Crest with amounts in excess of 2 inches over the
next few days below expected snow levels. At this time as these
amounts are incorporated into river flow models no mainstem
rivers are forecast to achieve flood stage...but the forecast
hydrographs have been trending higher over the last few runs. It
is very possible that rivers draining the Central Idaho Panhandle
mountains (the Coeur D`Alene and St. Joe basins in particular) may
experience minor flooding by late this weekend. Since mid
elevation snow pack is currently rather anemic...the contribution
of melting snow to the mix will be less than usual and brings
guarded confidence that there will be no major flooding issues to
deal with. The other concerns are mainly localized minor
mudslides and lowland/urban flooding from clogged culverts. A
Hydrologic Statement has been updated to expound on these
threats...but it is possible actual flood watches and warnings may
be needed this weekend. /Fugazzi
Sunday through Wednesday...Longwave ridge remains in the area and
is oriented in such a way early on in the interval to steer storms
with warm southwest to northeast trajectories of approach through
the area. Indeed the atmospheric river influencing the earlier
portion of the forecast is still in the vicinity and is feeding
into the weather system expected to pass through late Sunday night
and Monday so pops remain peaked in that period along with rather
warm temperatures and robust warm southerly winds keep the snow
levels high and allow rain to prevail as the precipitation type
for all lowland and valley locations and up to past mid-slope on
most northern mountains where a heavy wet snow or rain/snow mix
will fall, which is not too dissimilar to what is called for
earlier in the weekend. Behind the occluded frontal zone exit the
precipitation becomes more showery so the atmosphere is expected
to become somewhat conditionally unstable Monday night, hence the
transition to showery wording and pops that decrease Monday night
into Tuesday. The ridge narrows and amplifies Tuesday night and
beyond which allows for substantial drying for most locations
Tuesday night and for most of Wednesday. With the longwave ridge
in place and an active storm track keeping precipitation and windy
conditions at times in the forecast the forecast temperatures
remain in the warm side of climo coupled with rather high snow
levels. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Warm frontal precipitation will provide the main
weather during most of this period. Cigs and vsbys will vary
wildly between sites...with VFR and brief MVFR possible at LWS and
PUW. Much poorer conditions(IFR-LIFR)will impact the remaining
sites through at least 00z due to a combination of low clouds, fog
and light precipitation. Most of the precip will fall as -ra
except at EAT where it should remain primarily as -sn. Confidence
in timing brief breaks or improvements at these sites is low. We
should see a break in the weather during the evening...but not
sure that will result in improving conditions as low stratus and
fog could remain in place. Another round of rain will arrive
toward the latter end of the forecast periods with conditions
likely a little better than they currently are.fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 44 41 48 42 53 / 80 100 100 90 90 70
Coeur d`Alene 36 44 39 45 40 50 / 80 100 100 100 100 90
Pullman 39 49 43 51 45 54 / 30 100 80 90 80 70
Lewiston 41 52 44 54 46 60 / 30 90 80 90 70 50
Colville 33 40 38 43 40 49 / 90 100 100 100 90 90
Sandpoint 34 39 37 42 39 47 / 90 100 100 100 100 100
Kellogg 33 41 39 43 40 46 / 80 100 100 100 100 100
Moses Lake 38 45 42 52 43 55 / 50 80 70 80 70 40
Wenatchee 34 42 38 49 40 52 / 70 90 90 90 60 60
Omak 33 39 37 43 40 48 / 90 100 100 100 60 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1100 AM PST WED FEB 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and mountain snow will accompany the passage of a warm
front today. A series of wet and mild storm systems will produce
more significant rains Thursday through the weekend. The mountains
of north Idaho and the Cascades will likely receive several inches
of rain by Monday. Some area rivers and streams will experience
rises this weekend and early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...The main weather story for today will be the broad
warm front sweeping in from the south-southwest. As of
10am...local radar imagery was showing a widespread swath of
precipitation extending from all of western Washington to SE
Washington and into central Idaho. The short-range HRRR is
depicting this feature very well and we will follow its guidance.
Isentropic ascent with good moisture advection will continue drift
progressively northeast through the remainder of the
day...resulting in widespread precipitation across most of the
region. The precipitation will likely arrive over the northern tip
of the Idaho Panhandle last and may actually hold off until early
evening. Grids have been updated to reflect this timing.
Although primarily rain is expected over most valley
locations...things will be a little more complicated near the
Cascades, Waterville Plateau, and Wenatchee area. Current temps
in the upper 20s to lower 30s will lead to snow this morning
however the fine-resolution model data suggests those temps will
rise above freezing by afternoon. Based on cold air damming and
limited mixing potential in those area we think the bulk of the
precipitation will fall as snow. Despite that fact, the
precipitation amounts will be light and road temperatures will
likely remain above freezing over most locations. Consequently
most of the snow accumulations are expected to occur over grassy
areas and possibly secondary roads. QPF totals will generally be a
tenth of an inch or less through the remainder of the day. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Warm frontal precipitation will provide the main
weather during most of this period. Cigs and vsbys will vary
wildly between sites...with VFR and brief MVFR possible at LWS and
PUW. Much poorer conditions(IFR-LIFR)will impact the remaining
sites through at least 00z due to a combination of low clouds, fog
and light precipitation. Most of the precip will fall as -ra
except at EAT where it should remain primarily as -sn. Confidence
in timing brief breaks or improvements at these sites is low. We
should see a break in the weather during the evening...but not
sure that will result in improving conditions as low stratus and
fog could remain in place. Another round of rain will arrive
toward the latter end of the forecast periods with conditions
likely a little better than they currently are.fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 39 36 45 41 50 42 / 70 50 100 100 90 90
Coeur d`Alene 41 35 45 39 48 40 / 60 60 100 100 100 100
Pullman 45 40 50 43 52 45 / 80 10 100 80 90 80
Lewiston 45 42 54 44 56 46 / 70 10 90 80 90 70
Colville 36 35 40 38 43 40 / 50 60 100 100 100 90
Sandpoint 37 34 39 37 44 39 / 20 60 100 100 100 100
Kellogg 40 35 42 39 45 40 / 80 80 100 100 100 100
Moses Lake 41 36 46 42 54 43 / 80 30 80 70 80 70
Wenatchee 37 35 42 38 52 40 / 90 50 90 90 90 60
Omak 37 34 40 37 48 40 / 80 60 100 100 100 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT NORTH OR THE NE COLORADO/SE WYOMING BORDER AS LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING. FORTUNATELY
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL
DRIFTING. WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 110-KT WIND MAXIMA OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE AND
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CO. COMBINED LIFT FROM LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A PRONOUNCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NE
PANHANDLE. IR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE
OF HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF AN INCH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
PROGS THIS BAND TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80...
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH CREATED BLOWING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES OVER
SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN FROM THE 30S
AND 40S INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON NEAR SHORT TERM WITH SNOWFALL
AND LATER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 00Z/06Z
NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PRIMARY
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING WITH SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DECREASING BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FOR
ALL BUT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. AFTER ALL IS
SAID AND DONE...THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES CAN EXPECT A
FEW FEET OF SNOW...WITH A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 14
INCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE.
AREAS SOUTH TOWARD THE CO BORDER WILL LIKELY MEASURE 3 TO 6
INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR EARLY
MORNING COMMUTERS AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MID MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TODAY.
A CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN WY AND CO. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CRAIG-CASPER
700/850 MB GRADIENTS INCREASE ABOVE 50 MTRS TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK
UP WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
AND SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE WINDY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE
AREAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE DECENT
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND PRODUCE A MILD AND WINDY DAY WITH OUR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. PROGGED
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WEST WINDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
SATURDAY...EVEN MORE WINDY WITH SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB GRADIENTS
INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT OUR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED MILD
BASED ON PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES.
SUNDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A PACIFIC
ORIGIN COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WITH LITTLE LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...KEEPING OUR
WEATHER DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOT QUITE AS WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
AND COOLING DOWN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF I80...MAINLY OVER KCYS AND
SOUTH OF KRWL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FURTHER
EAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 00Z ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VIS AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...
MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND
FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-
115>119.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ054-
055.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1004 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT NORTH OR THE NE COLORADO/SE WYOMING BORDER AS LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING. FORTUNATELY
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL
DRIFTING. WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 110-KT WIND MAXIMA OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE AND
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST CO. COMBINED LIFT FROM LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE PRODUCED A PRONOUNCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
FROM EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NE
PANHANDLE. IR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE
OF HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF AN INCH. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
PROGS THIS BAND TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80...
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH CREATED BLOWING SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES OVER
SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN FROM THE 30S
AND 40S INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON NEAR SHORT TERM WITH SNOWFALL
AND LATER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG WINDS. THE 00Z/06Z
NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PRIMARY
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT EXIT EAST OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING WITH SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DECREASING BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FOR
ALL BUT THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT. AFTER ALL IS
SAID AND DONE...THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES CAN EXPECT A
FEW FEET OF SNOW...WITH A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 14
INCHES FROM EAST CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE.
AREAS SOUTH TOWARD THE CO BORDER WILL LIKELY MEASURE 3 TO 6
INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR EARLY
MORNING COMMUTERS AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MID MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TODAY.
A CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN WY AND CO. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
NORTHEAST TODAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CRAIG-CASPER
700/850 MB GRADIENTS INCREASE ABOVE 50 MTRS TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK
UP WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
AND SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WENT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE WINDY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE
AREAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE DECENT
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND PRODUCE A MILD AND WINDY DAY WITH OUR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. PROGGED
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WEST WINDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
SATURDAY...EVEN MORE WINDY WITH SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB GRADIENTS
INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT OUR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED MILD
BASED ON PROGGED 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES.
SUNDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A PACIFIC
ORIGIN COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WITH LITTLE LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...KEEPING OUR
WEATHER DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOT QUITE AS WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
AND COOLING DOWN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR TODAY IN SNOW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR
TONIGHT AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED...AND WINDS
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS OUR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST WED FEB 4 2015
A ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...
MOIST UPSLOPE WINDS AND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND
FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND ALLIANCE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OVER THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRES TONIGHT. WINDY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-
115>119.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ054-
055.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MJ